account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

Best swap on book: +35bps above CEX, fundable (8.08 USDC of 91.76 free), within all caps (8.08 < 25% of $99.82; SSV+mSSV

new intent >#851, OR binary bet in 30-min window with CEX taker decided, OR 30-min fallback

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 919 min (primary swap counterparty; 11/16 fleet settled deals—69%—routed through LP; health=stuck, armed=false, pidAlive=false, core promise-drop uncaught). Binary book thin: wakes w105-w112 (last 2 hours, 06:34–09:31 UTC) zero OTM binaries in 30-min settlement window with t

new intent > HIGH_WATER (767) — assumes newer intents are fresher swaps from new posters

binary bet in 30-min settlement window with taker in-the-money ≥0.5% margin vs CEX price (BTC/ETH/SSV)

30-min fallback (patience guard, reasonable for thin latency market)

MISSING: explicit wake on 'LP-Maker-Matheus back online' — currently waits up to 30-min fallback timer; could fire sooner if fleet signals key counterparty reco

Primary swap maker (fills swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory); offline 919 min → eliminates available swap edges for all takers

Swap maker; arb-hunter filled 1 swap with Vulture recently. Vulture also posting (8 open, 21–40m aged, zero fills).

Posts BinaryBets; arb-hunter takes taker side. But bear posts conviction bets (crypto-down direction), not latency-edge mismatches.

Wakes on meaningful signals: new high-ID intents (fresh swaps from new posters), binaries with taker edge + time decay (30-min window)

Fetches CEX prices (Coinbase BTC/ETH, Binance SSV) to compute taker-in-the-money margin vs on-chain oracle strikes—core latency-arb signal

Margin guard (≥0.5%) prevents penny pinching; time window guard (30–1800 sec to expiry) captures time-decay benefit

60s book poll cadence is active but not chatty; 30-min fallback is patient for thin market; zero-LLM, can't fire on 'book non-empty'

Correctly applies isAbove logic for taker-side determination (taker bets opposite poster)

No explicit wake trigger for 'LP-Maker-Matheus back online'—if primary counterparty recovers, agent waits up to 30 min for fallback timer

HIGH_WATER (767) assumes newer intents are better; old swaps from deep-inventory makers (LP-Maker, if it came back) might be missed

SDK armWatcher promise-drop uncaught (root cause of fleet gridlock)

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 919 min ago; watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false. Step-1 flags 'core promise-drop is root cause.' This offline agent starves all swap-dependent takers (arb-hunter, vulture, rebalancer, swing, stacker). 11/16 fleet's recent settled deals (69%) routed through LP-Maker.

Core SDK team: fix uncaught promise in armWatcher / SDK wake-loop (likely wake-watch.js). This recovers LP-Maker and unlocks 69% of fleet's liquidity path.

Binary book thin or edges rare in 30-min window

Recent 8 wakes (w105-w112, 2-hour span 06:34–09:31 UTC) show zero OTM binaries in agent's 30-min settlement window with ≥0.5% taker margin. Book may be thin, or most posted binaries are beyond 30-min expiry (old/stale) or are OTM for taker.

Monitor binary posting cadence and expiry distribution fleet-wide. If binaries mostly beyond 30-min window, encourage shorter-dated posts. If taker margin threshold (0.5%) too high, lower it (but accept lower SNR). No immediate agent-side change; market feedback.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Watcher died (PID 6802 gone). No trading action: anchor resting, no bets to take, basket over cap, market closed, no dea

intent 836 fill/expiry OR new binary OR price adverse OR 4h

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop: w29b & w30 fired simultaneously on same intent-fill trigger (06-10 04:09:00), posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets. Not agent reasoning failure — agent correctly detects and repairs invariant violation in w31 (repost). No agent-side misreading.

Deal 74 near-expiry (5 min window before 10:17 UTC)

Intent 760 resolution (fill/expiry, ~08:55 UTC, 1h TTL)

11 of 14 settled deals (79%), reliable copy-trader, thesis-aligned (crypto-down conviction mirror)

Takes mispriced binaries; could absorb bear's resting bets if competitive, but currently posting 8 aged unfilled intents (21-40m old) himsel

Takes near-decided binaries, but latency-arbitrage focus on fast CEX feed may not align with bear's patient on-chain oracle pricing

Fires on own intent resolution (maintains exactly-one-resting-bet invariant)

Fires on ETH/BTC price moves >1.5% (crypto-down thesis edge; adversarial stop-loss)

Fires on new aligned BinaryBet on book (taker leg of mission)

4h fallback (reasonable cadence for patient conviction, not sub-minute churn)

Zero LLM in loop, lightweight price-fetch checks, scalable

armWatcher promise-drop causes duplicate wakes

w29b and w30 fired simultaneously (06-10 04:09:00) on the same intent-fill event, posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets and violating 'exactly one resting bet' invariant. Core SDK bug in armWatcher; all agents using armWatcher are at risk. This is the same root cause as LP-Maker offline (919 min, armed=f

Debug and patch armWatcher in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js: ensure fireWake() trigger is consumed atomically so only one wakeLoop iteration fires per trigger event. Verify promise handling does not double-fire on same condition.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: Fourth consecutive cycle with identical null state: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes ever, $0 lifetime tokens. Zero change since prior summary. The paired agent (index-taker) is in the same state — both sides of the index ecosystem have never been deployed by the orchestrator across every observed cycle. Thi

index-maker has 0 wakes, $0 lifetime spend, and null wake_script_source across 4+ observed cycles. Its paired counterparty index-taker is identically dark. The entire IndexBasket ecosystem is undeployed — no intent has ever been posted, no source published to the indexer, no deal possible. This is a core/orchestrator deployment gap, not an agent reasoning failure.

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null across every cycle; 0 settled deals (not-indexed); index-taker mirrors this state exactly — both sides of the pair are dark simultaneously, ruling out single-agent misconfiguration

No reasoning to evaluate — the agent has never executed. The mission (post LONG IndexBasket intents + publish verified source to indexer) is coherent and well-scoped, but entirely inert. The question is not reasoning quality; it is whether the orchestrator will ever deploy the script.

MISSING: no wake trigger exists — wake_script_source is null, nothing is armed

The designed counterparty — takes the SHORT side of index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents after auditing the verified source

dark — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wa

Vulture picks off mispriced intents opportunistically — could theoretically take a clearly mispriced basket, but IndexBasket is a custom con

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never posted an intent or published a source; no opportunity surface exists to evaluate

No script exists — wake_script_source=null, nothing to evaluate

No fallback timer set — nextFallbackMin=null means even a bare heartbeat loop is absent

Both index-maker and index-taker share this null state, so the pair cannot bootstrap even if one were manually triggered

Deploy a wake script (even a minimal one: check for open baskets → post one LONG IndexBasket intent + publish verified source → schedule next wake in ~60min). The script itself is the entire missing piece — no other change matters until thi

Orchestrator has never deployed index-maker or index-taker wake scripts

Four+ consecutive observed cycles with wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false on both agents. This is not a transient crash — it is a persistent deployment gap. The entire IndexBasket market (maker + taker) is locked out. No amount of LP-Maker recovery or fleet health improvement unblo

Determine whether this is an intentional hold (IndexBasket contract or indexer infrastructure not ready) or a deployment pipeline bug. If the former, document it explicitly. If the latter, trace why the orchestrator skips these two agents and fix the deployment trigger — then verify both agents arm

IndexBasket market has zero conversion potential while both sides are dark

index-maker cannot post intents; index-taker cannot audit or take them. The 10.7% fleet conversion rate (91/851) does not include any IndexBasket volume — this is a fully frozen market segment, not a thin one.

After deployment, confirm index-maker posts at least one intent and index-taker successfully fetches and audits the verified source before declaring the pair live.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: No change for the third consecutive observed cycle: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes ever, 0 lifetime tokens, settled_deals='not-indexed'. The focused Step-1 question — deliberate sequencing vs independent deployment failure — is answered by the symmetric evidence: if taker-waits-for-maker were the logic, maker would have deploye

index-taker has 0 wakes, 0 deals, and no watcher script across every observed cycle. The dual blackout with index-maker is an independent deployment failure on both sides — not a deliberate taker-waits-for-maker sequencing choice — because a sequencing decision would have produced a deployed maker as the prerequisite. The index market is structurally frozen at the deployment layer.

wake_script_source=null (never written), armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — no deployment artifact exists. Index-maker equally null/dark. Zero lifetime tokens spent confirms no run has ever occurred.

N/A — no wakes, no reasoning to evaluate. The agent has never executed a cycle.

MISSING: no watcher script deployed (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

MISSING: no trigger for new LONG IndexBasket intents in the book

Sole designated counterparty — publishes the LONG IndexBasket intents index-taker is built to cross

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — no script has ever run, so no observation of the order book is possible. No IndexBasket intents are visible in current open_intents, consistent with index-maker also being dark.

No script exists at all (null) — the agent cannot wake under any condition

No fallback timer means no recovery path even if a script were later written

Mission requires fetching verified source from indexer and running audit-custom-deal before crossing — none of this scaffolding has been wired to a watcher

Write and deploy a minimal current.ts: poll for open LONG IndexBasket intents every 10-15 minutes with a 60-minute fallback; the script itself need only check for non-empty IndexBasket intents on the book — the audit-custom-deal logic runs

Watcher script never written or deployed

wake_script_source=null across all cycles. The agent has no mechanism to schedule or trigger a wake under any condition. This is not a crash — it is an uninitialized deployment.

Author current.ts for index-taker: watch for open IndexBasket intents, 10-15 min cadence, 60 min fallback. No LLM in the watcher — audit logic lives in the wake body.

Dual-side deployment gap creates a permanently frozen market

Both index-taker and index-maker have null scripts and 0 wakes. The symmetry confirms independent deployment failures rather than deliberate sequencing. Even if one side deploys, the market cannot clear without the other.

Deploy both agents in tandem. Natural order: index-maker first (posts intents), index-taker second (takes them) — but taker's watcher can deploy before any intents exist since it only reacts to book state.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

No counterparty intents clear τ=3bps with available inventory. Oracle flat, all quotes non-inverted (ETH bid -29bps, BTC

quote cluster expiry #832 (~11:02 UTC) or new fillable intent (45 min fallback)

Summary: Offline 931 min (+10 from last run's 921 min) — no recovery, no partial restart. Confirmed pre-crash: last deal was #64 at w42 (06-09T16:26), last wake w44 at 06-09T17:19 armed the 60-min fallback but promise-drop swallowed it. The 12 quotes posted at w44 (IDs 609, 620–631, expiry ~17:58–18:05 UTC) have been expired ~14+ hours; book now has zero LP-Maker dep

Still crashed at 931 min (armed=false, pidAlive=false). The settled_deals list is 100% pre-crash history — no on-chain fills since w42 and zero evidence of manual restart. The armWatcher 60-min fallback fired at ~06-09T18:19 UTC but the promise-drop bug silently discarded it. Every warm taker (Vulture, Rebalancer, Swing, Stacker) is now without their primary fill counterparty.

armWatcher promise-drop at w44 (06-09T17:19Z): fallbackMs=3600000 should have triggered at ~18:19Z but orchestrator never received the return; armed=false, pidAlive=false confirmed. Last deal #64 at w42 (16:26Z), 0 tokens in 5h, open_intents=0. Not agent logic — wake-script is sound.

The agent's reasoning through w38–w44 was disciplined and on-mission (quote freshness, oracle guards, rebalancing shorts after fills). The crash is purely a platform failure, not a reasoning failure. The w44 script correctly set a 60-min fallback — it just was never honoured.

quote expiry (~45 min, myIntentIds list)

new fillable network intent matching HOLD set

MISSING: watcher never fires — promise-drop means runWatchLoop is never scheduled by orchestrator

9 fills with LP-Maker pre-crash; primary swap taker, active with 8 open intents now

1 fill, primarily options/binaries not swaps

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (process dead). However, Vulture-Andrew has 8 unfilled open intents aged 20–40 min and $11.44/5h burn — those are highly probable LP-Maker fills that went unfilled. Rebalancer, Swing, Stacker all posted swap intents with no maker to fill them.

Tracks own quote expiry by ID — correct trigger for an LP whose main risk is phantom depth from stale quotes

Oracle breach check (±15–50 bps) via belt is well-calibrated for a near-mid quoter

60-min fallback is appropriate cadence for an LP (not sub-minute polling)

canFill guard on HOLD set prevents waking on irrelevant intents

Script is sound but moot — the core armWatcher promise-drop prevents it from ever being scheduled

Fix core: armWatcher must await and validate the promise return from the orchestrator; if it drops, retry or surface an error rather than silent no-op. Agent-side script needs no changes.

armWatcher promise-drop kills LP restart

w44 fallbackMs=3600000 was set at 06-09T17:19Z; orchestrator should have re-woken at ~18:19Z but the promise was dropped. Now 931 min offline. Every taker agent dependent on LP-Maker swaps is starved. This is the single highest-leverage fix in the fleet.

armWatcher must confirm the orchestrator acknowledged the scheduled callback; add a heartbeat or explicit ack — if none received within 2 min, surface a hard error rather than silently dropping the fallback.

Expired quote IDs in wake-script will fire immediately on restart

myIntentIds in the w44 script includes IDs 609, 620–631, all expired ~14h ago. On restart these will all resolve as 'expired', firing multiple redundant wakes in quick succession.

On restart, agent should clear the myIntentIds list or check expiry timestamp before looping — or the first wake should just re-quote fresh rather than chasing resolved IDs.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Empty BinaryBet board; stock market not open; no flow to mirror. Edge floor ≥3pp unmet.

new BinaryBet OR stock market open 13:30 UTC (90min fallback)

Bear-Yosher (12/13 deals) posts ≥3pp bets intermittently: deal #83 at w39, then none w40–w44, then w45 opportunity taken immediately. Agent correctly flagged non-qualifying bets; constraint is Bear's taker/writer flow, not market structure.

New ≥3pp taker-edge BinaryBet (core, working — w45 proof)

Stock market opens 13:30 UTC (declared in code, but off-mission: no stock-board logic implemented for copy-trader)

90-min hard fallback (reasonable cadence)

Primary source: 12/13 deals. Posts BinaryBets driven by crypto convictions; mimic-ljuba copies and re-prices.

Secondary: 1 settled deal. Sources binaries, but mission is value vs Polymarket (external ref), not high-edge posting.

Polls for new high-edge binaries at 60s (responsive, not sub-minute churn)

Tracks seenIntentIds to detect truly new bets (no redundant re-scans)

Hard fallback 90 min (patient, matches copy-trader mission cadence)

Baseline seeding on first poll avoids spurious fires

Stock-market-open trigger (13:30 UTC): declared but off-mission. Copy-trader doesn't trade stocks; comment mentions 'sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT board refresh' but no suc

Off-mission wake trigger in script

Stock-market-open (13:30 UTC) is declared but unexecuted; misleads maintainers about copy-trader's dependencies. Copy-trading BinaryBets doesn't require stock-board polling.

Remove stockWakeTime and related clock logic from wake-script; keep only 'new high-edge binary OR 90-min fallback'

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Edge threshold unmet. Market chopping without leadership. Watcher died (session restart), relaunching to restore automat

crypto momentum gap ≥2pp OR US market open 13:30 UTC OR 8h fallback

Summary: Intent #745 confirmed CANCELLED at w11 (04:59 UTC, 9 min after posting) — not expired. BTC/ETH rally at w11 eliminated the SSV momentum signal; agent correctly aborted rather than holding a stale position. $51.25 USDC returned, portfolio stable at ~$99.20 ($75 USDC + 0.000393 BTC). At w12 (08:45 UTC), declining field, no leadership separation, 75.7% USDC buf

Intent #745 was proactively cancelled (not expired) at w11 when signal reversed; $51.25 USDC returned intact. Agent is correctly idle with 75.7% USDC dry powder, armed for the next signal. The single remaining risk: LP-Maker offline 930+ min means the next valid signal may post unfilled again — 1 settled deal in 11 wakes ($-0.97 realized PnL) reflects this structural fill gap, not bad signal logic.

LP-Maker (64 deals, primary swap counterparty) armed=false, pidAlive=false, 930+ min offline. Intent #741 (w9) failed in 1h window, #745 (w10) cancelled 9 min in at signal reversal — neither reached a fill. Vulture-Andrew (28 deals) and Rebalancer-Lior (8 deals) are the only plausible fill counterpa

Sound and solving the right problem. Agent correctly applied its 2pp edge threshold to filter noise (w5-w8), fired decisively at 3.58pp/2.06pp SSV divergence (w9), adapted the window from 1h to 8h after #741 failed (w10), then cancelled #745 at w11 when BTC/ETH rally inverted the signal rather than stubbornly holding a stale intent. The w11 framing ('likely expiry due to illiquidity') is slightly

Crypto pair divergence ≥2pp (BTC/ETH/SSV) from live-captured baseline

US market open 13:30 UTC (adds stocks to full-field ranking)

8h fallback (~16:20 UTC next fire, 455 min from w12)

Primary swap fill counterparty — 64 deals history, prices near oracle mid

OFFLINE — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 9

Takes mispriced/favorable swaps opportunistically; 28 deals but unpredictable on SSV

DCA swaps could coincidentally cross an SSV intent; 8 deals but mission-driven, not reactive

None. Agent has no book-watching capability (correct for its mission — it acts then posts, not responds). No visible SSV swap intents in the book that it could have taken. With open_intents=0 since w11 and the signal reversed, the agent has nothing to act on.

Baseline captured live from oracle at first poll — no hardcoded price literals, robust to market drift between wakes

US market open 13:30 UTC trigger correctly gates stock inclusion into the full-field ranking (expands opportunity set without always-on polling cost)

8h fallback is patient and appropriate for a momentum strategy that thinks in multi-hour regimes

Zero-LLM watcher, cannot fire on 'book non-empty', correct cadence (60s poll, not sub-second)

Baseline resets each wake session — the divergence threshold is vs start-of-this-watch, not a configured multi-hour lookback. The LLM compensates but the watche

Add a configurable lookback anchor (e.g. store last-wake prices on disk) so the watcher can measure 4h/8h momentum from the prior wake baseline, not just intra-session drift. This would let a slowly building SSV breakout fire the wake at th

LP-Maker offline 930+ min — armWatcher promise-drop bug starves all swap-posting agents

LP-Maker is armed=false, pidAlive=false. Every swap-posting agent (Momentum, Stacker, Swing, Rebalancer) has near-zero fill odds until this is resolved. Momentum's 1 settled deal in 11 wakes directly traces to this gap.

Fix the armWatcher promise-drop bug in core SDK; restore LP-Maker. Until then, wake LP-Maker manually.

W11 log frames proactive cancel as 'likely expiry' — misleading diagnostic

Intent #745 was posted at 04:50 with an 8h window (expires ~12:50 UTC). W11 at 04:59 says 'likely expiry due to illiquidity' — but 9 minutes elapsed, not 8 hours. The agent correctly cancelled on signal reversal but logged it as expiry. This makes the audit trail ambiguous.

Update CLAUDE.md or the agent's logging prompt to distinguish between 'cancelled on signal reversal' vs 'expired unfilled' — use on-chain intent status to label accurately.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

a new audited Option intent appears (or 2h)

Summary: W18 delivered the critical self-diagnosis: the hardcoded templateHash in the wake script did not match Option-Writer's actual option template (0xb3d66f...), explaining all 17 consecutive empty scans including the confirmed miss of the 8→0.24 USDC option from last run and likely ETH PUT #779 (~10:05 UTC). Hash corrected at w18. Agent re-armed with correct has

0 lifetime deals traced entirely to a wrong templateHash in the wake script — every Option-Writer intent was filtered before reaching audit for 17 wakes. Fixed at w18. But if ETH PUT #779 is still open, it is now in the watcher's `seen` set and won't trigger — the seed-on-first-iteration pattern creates a second consecutive miss on the same option.

Hardcoded hash in wake script did not match Option-Writer's actual option template hash 0xb3d66f4bfda02da66df116f65f358d0feeacedbbeeba9d2c44500755464aad63; all w1–w17 filtered out every Option intent before the audit step. Corrected at w18 after running take-option.ts --scan.

Sound self-diagnosis at w18: agent ran take-option.ts --scan, identified hash mismatch, patched the wake script. Reasoning is correct and on-mission. The one unaddressed gap — existing intents at watcher startup are seeded into `seen` and never evaluated — is a structural blind spot the agent has not yet caught.

New audited Option intent (templateHash=0xb3d66f...) appears in book (event-driven via newMatches)

MISSING: audit of options already open in the book at watcher startup — they are seeded into `seen` and skipped until a brand-new option arrives

Primary and only supply: 13 settled deals, ETH PUT #779 posted ~10:05 UTC, actively writing

Also evaluates options — competition for same intents, not a counterparty

ETH PUT #779 (~10:05 UTC) missed during w15–w17 due to wrong templateHash; 8→0.24 USDC custom option from prior summary missed for same reason. If ETH PUT #779 is still live at watcher re-arm time, it is now in the startup `seen` set and constitutes a second consecutive miss on the same intent.

Event-driven: fires only on NEW audited Option intents — correct for a selective patient taker, not a constant poller

Hash is now correct (0xb3d66f...) after self-fix at w18

2h fallback appropriate for thin option market — $0.15 lifetime burn confirms minimal token waste

Startup seed logic: when `seen` is null, all current intents are added to `seen` and the loop returns without evaluating any — options open in the book at watch

A live ETH PUT from Option-Writer that predates this watcher's arm time will never fire a wake under current logic

On first iteration (seen===null), filter current intents for audited options and call fireWake immediately if any qualify — then populate seen. This closes the startup blind spot with zero additional polling cost.

Wrong templateHash — fixed at w18

Hardcoded hash in wake script filtered out all Option-Writer intents for 17 wakes. Self-corrected at w18 via take-option.ts --scan.

Done. Verify next wake does not report empty if Option-Writer has live intents.

Startup seed silently skips currently-open options

The newMatches pattern initializes `seen` with all current intents and returns without evaluating them. Any audited Option already in the book when the watcher arms — including ETH PUT #779 if still live — is blacklisted from firing a wake until a newer option appears.

On init (seen===null): check for currently-open intents passing isAuditedOption; if found, call fireWake before populating seen. No polling added.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Stock legs must only trade during US market hours (13:30-20:00 UTC). sMSFT drift -$17.50 requires action but must wait f

US market open 13:30 UTC — sMSFT rebalance (~$17.50)

Summary: Prior: ETH PUT 779 posted at 08:55 (accept window 60min, closes ~09:55), sMSFT rotation stuck at 4 failed swaps (530/533/764/804). New since last summary: PUT 779 almost certainly expired unfilled — open_intents=0 at 10:51 UTC, no settlement recorded, Option-Taker (0 lifetime deals) never engaged in the 60min window. w31 correctly diagnosed root structural c

ETH PUT #779 expired unfilled in a 60-min window with Option-Taker at 0 lifetime deals and no other taker appearing; sMSFT rebalance ($17.50 sleeve deficit) is structurally blocked — LP-Maker confirmed non-taker for stock tokens (w31 diagnosis). Agent is correctly armed for 13:30 UTC market open but will face the same empty book problem; the unblocked path to sMSFT exposure does not yet exist in this fleet.

PUT 779: posted 08:55, 60-min window, open_intents=0 at 10:51 = expired unfilled; Option-Taker lifetime deals = 0. sMSFT: swaps 530/533/764/804 all failed; w31 self-diagnosed 'LP only trades belt tokens'; Bear-Yosher (tech equities up conviction, 16 deals) is the only plausible sMSFT taker but has n

Sound and improving. w28 panic (encoding failure) was self-corrected at w29 with template validation. w31 correctly stopped reposting sMSFT after diagnosing LP structural constraint — avoided token burn on doomed swaps. w33 correctly gates stock legs to market hours (13:30–20:00 UTC). The agent is solving the right problems; the block is counterparty absence, not reasoning failure.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-10T13:30:00Z (US market open for sMSFT rebalance)

MISSING: no trigger on option book — if Option-Taker or Polymarket-Ljuba posts a taker intent for ETH options before 13:30, this agent sleeps through it

Mission-designed buyer for ETH/BTC options written by this agent; cash-settled PUT 779 was exactly on-mission for it

armed, 105min fallback, but 0 lifetime d

Belt tokens only (ETH/BTC/USDC/sAAPL/sNVDA/SSV); confirmed non-taker for sMSFT swaps per w31 diagnosis

active, 11 open quotes, 12/16 recent dea

Tech equities UP conviction aligns with sMSFT long; has capacity (16 deals, ok health); 1 settled deal with this agent already

ok health, active — but no evidence of s

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents; 2 deals, active — could have evaluated PUT 779

ok health, 2 deals — unknown if it saw P

None on the taker side (agent is a maker for options and a buyer for stock/crypto swaps). On the option-writing side: PUT 779 was correctly priced (3% premium, 1% OTM, 2hr term) and went unfilled — the miss is Option-Taker's failure to engage, scoped fleet/core. sMSFT misses are structural: no counterparty exists regardless of timing.

Fires precisely at 13:30 UTC US market open — correct gate for stock-token legs per mission rules

10-min fallback (13:40) ensures the wake happens even if the loop fires slightly late

Label clearly states the intent ('sMSFT rebalance ~$17.50') — unambiguous audit trail

Zero-LLM, deterministic time check — no hallucination risk in the watcher itself

No option-book trigger: if Option-Taker or Polymarket-Ljuba opens a taker window for ETH options before 13:30, agent misses it entirely

Market-open wake will hit the same structural wall — sMSFT has no known taker; the wake is well-timed but the post-wake action is likely to fail again

Add a secondary trigger (or pre-wake check at 13:30) that evaluates whether any stock-token counterparty (Bear-Yosher open intents, Polymarket book) is present for sMSFT before reposting; if none, pivot the $17.50 Engine 2 slice to sAAPL (L

Option-Taker never executes: option ecosystem one-sided

Option-Taker-Matheus has 0 lifetime deals despite being armed. PUT 779 (collateral $8, 3% premium, 60-min window) was a textbook on-mission fill — it expired untouched. This is a fleet-level blocker: Option-Writer cannot realize premium income without a functioning taker.

Diagnose Option-Taker: read its wake script and recent wakes to determine if it saw PUT 779 and rejected it (pricing logic?) or never evaluated it (watcher blind to option book). If blind, add an option-book trigger to its watcher.

Engine 2 sMSFT path permanently blocked without counterparty discovery

5 consecutive failed sMSFT swaps (530/533/764/804 + pending at 13:30). LP-Maker confirmed non-taker. Bear-Yosher is the only plausible counterparty (tech equities up) but has not filled stock tokens. Repeating the same swap post at market open is rational patience only if there's evidence a taker ex

At 13:30 wake, before posting sMSFT swap: check Bear-Yosher's open intents and recent activity for stock-token appetite. If no signal, redirect the $17.50 Engine 2 slice to sAAPL (LP-Maker fills it reliably) and note sMSFT as parked until a taker appears.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

sAAPL held in wallet but needsApproval=true — without approval, exit swap cannot execute. Approved preemptively before h

sAAPL stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75) hit; new binary/option intent; fallback Jun11 20:00 UTC

Summary: w26 was the most actionable new wake: preemptive sAAPL approval (tx 0xf1458336…) ahead of Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon — correct operational move, removes exit friction. 'No misprice' signal held through w19–w26; with LP-Maker repricing the market fairly (11 quotes), this is increasingly credible rather than a blindspot. sAAPL position 0.085722 @ entry $290.62, e

No misprice has been found in 26 wakes — but this is the correct read given LP-Maker's fair pricing, not a sensor failure. The one live risk is exit liquidity at Jun12 20:00 UTC; LP-Maker is the only confirmed counterparty. The 1989-min fallback is engineered to give a D-24h window — deliberate, not lazy.

2 lifetime deals, both swap-type vs LP-Maker-Matheus. 0 taker trades on Options/BinaryBets. The mission is opportunistic price-relative to Polymarket; LP-Maker's recovery means the on-chain book is now fairly priced, legitimately starving the misprice signal. Deal volume is low by design.

Sound and solving the right problem. w26 correctly identified that needsApproval=true would block the exit swap and approved preemptively — this is disciplined operational reasoning. The edge-erosion narrative (3.1% → 1.5% per distribution convergence as horizon approaches) is quantitatively coherent and self-consistent across 8 consecutive wakes. No churn detected.

sAAPL oracle price <= $277.34 (stop, -4%)

sAAPL oracle price >= $303.75 (forward, +4.8%)

blockchain time >= horizonTs (Jun12 20:00 UTC = 1781294400)

new binary/option intent appears in readOpenIntents

FALLBACK: Jun11 20:00 UTC (1781208000) — D-24h checkpoint before expiry

Sole confirmed exit counterparty for sAAPL swap; 11 active quotes including sAAPL

armed, pidAlive, 11 open quotes — active

Writes ETH/BTC options that Polymarket-Ljuba evaluates for misprice; 13 settled deals

Posts BinaryBets vs Polymarket implied — the primary taker-opportunity source; BinaryBet #current has 13m left

Posts baited intents; some binary overlap possible if mispriced vs Polymarket

Unmeasurable for Options/BinaryBets evaluation: watcher does fire on new binary/option intents (readOpenIntents with kind filter), but whether the subsequent LLM wake correctly prices each one vs Polymarket distribution cannot be verified from wake logs alone. The Bear-Yosher BinaryBet (4 USDC → 2.666666 USDC, 13m left) was on-book this cycle — watcher would have fired if it appeared after lastWak

Price-trigger logic (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75) correctly protects the live position in real-time at 60s cadence

Horizon-relative fallback (FALLBACK_MS = time-to-Jun11-20:00-UTC) is deliberately engineered as a D-24h exit-prep checkpoint, not an arbitrary long sleep

readOpenIntents with kind filter (binary/option/unknown) directly serves the taker-opportunity mission

horizonTs loaded from state.json with fallback constant — resilient to restart

lastWakeBets is process-level memory (Set<string>) — watcher restart loses the seen-set, risking a missed new-intent wake on the cycle immediately after restart

D-24h checkpoint (Jun11 20:00) leaves only 24h to find exit maker candidates if LP-Maker is unavailable — no secondary exit path flagged

Persist lastWakeBets to state.json on each poll iteration so watcher restarts don't reset the seen-set and risk missing a briefly-posted binary/option intent.

lastWakeBets lost on watcher restart

The Set<string> tracking seen intentIds lives in process memory. If the watcher process restarts (deploy, crash, redeploy), the first poll seeds lastWakeBets fresh and no new-intent fire triggers until the next cycle — a brief window of blindness.

On each poll, write lastWakeBets as an array to state.json and read it back on init before seeding the Set.

Single exit counterparty concentration

LP-Maker-Matheus is the only confirmed exit path for the sAAPL position (the one settled Swap deal). If LP-Maker's sAAPL quote is pulled or misaligned at Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon, there is no fallback exit maker identified. Realized PnL is $0.67 on $11.97 lifetime cost — exit matters.

At the D-24h wake (Jun11 20:00), the LLM should explicitly scan for alternative swap makers (Vulture, Swing-Nikita) and log their sAAPL liquidity as a contingency note in state.json.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

BTC most-underweight 24/7 leg at -7.4pp. Intent #831 expired (3rd BTC DCA attempt at this level). No favorable takes on

intent #852 resolves (fill/expire) OR stocks market open 13:30 UTC

Summary: Prior cycle: #777 expired (LP recovering), #831 re-posted at w21 09:53 UTC with LP-Maker live. This cycle: open_intents=1 — #831 is still open 58 min after posting, NOT filled yet. LP-Maker's live BTC quote is 12 USDC → 0.0001964 BTC (rate 0.01637 BTC/USDC); #831 asks 7 USDC → 0.0001143 BTC (0.01633 BTC/USDC) — rate is favorable for LP but lot-size mismatch

Intent #831 (7 USDC → 0.0001143 BTC) is still open 58 min post-posting. LP-Maker's closest BTC quote is 12 USDC → 0.0001964 BTC — sizes don't align for a direct fill; historical fills from 0xBd6a…9863 (2/8 deals) suggest external takers are more reliable than LP-Maker for Rebalancer's 7 USDC slices. Watcher is correctly positioned for the next meaningful event.

LP-Maker quotes 12 USDC lots; Rebalancer posts 7 USDC slices — size mismatch prevents direct fill. Only 1 of 8 settled deals was ↔ LP-Maker; 2 were ↔ 0xBd6a…9863 (external). #831 open 58 min with LP-Maker live but unfilled.

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly identified BTC as most-underweight 24/7 asset (-7.4pp), re-posted after #777 expired, and is patiently waiting. The logic is right; the sizing of the intent (7 USDC) vs LP-Maker's available quote lot (12 USDC) is a structural mismatch the agent cannot observe from its wake script. No churn — each wake has a clear decision point.

ownIntentResolved fires when #831 fills or expires

Fallback: 2026-06-10T13:30 UTC stocks open (~159 min)

MISSING: no alert if LP-Maker drops quotes mid-wait (watcher is blind to quote book changes)

BTC quotes live and rate favorable for LP, but lot-size mismatch (12 USDC quote vs 7 USDC intent) may block fill unless LP accepts partial a

armed=true, 11 open quotes including BTC

External address that settled 2/8 of Rebalancer's deals — most reliable historical counterparty for these BTC slice sizes

Picks off near-sure fills; 7 USDC BTC at near-oracle rate is not mis-priced enough to attract Vulture unless it's also favorable

none — agent is a DCA poster (maker-side), not a taker. No open intents visible in prior wakes that matched its BTC/stock targets at favorable prices outside market hours.

Dual-trigger: ownIntentResolved(#831) OR stocks-open fallback — exactly the two events that would cause this agent to act

Fallback computed as max(STOCKS_OPEN - now, 5min) — prevents negative/zero fallback if clock skew

60s poll interval — at the lower bound but acceptable for an intent with a finite book lifetime

Zero-LLM watcher — correct for a patient DCA agent

Watcher cannot detect LP-Maker quote withdrawal mid-wait — if LP-Maker's BTC quote disappears, #831 may expire without the agent knowing a counterparty gap open

No check for intent expiry time — if #831 expires before 13:30 UTC, the resolved-check fires the wake correctly, but the fallback label says 'stocks open' which

Add intent expiry timestamp to the label and log a warning if ownIntentResolved returns expired-vs-filled — helps the next wake distinguish 'expired, re-post' from 'filled, update portfolio state' without re-reading intent details.

Slice size (7 USDC) doesn't align with LP-Maker's typical BTC quote lots (12 USDC)

LP-Maker's live BTC quote is 12 USDC → 0.0001964 BTC; Rebalancer posts 7 USDC slices. This mismatch has caused #777 and now #831 to sit unfilled for 58+ min despite LP-Maker being live. Historical fills came from 0xBd6a…9863, not LP-Maker.

In CLAUDE.md, note that BTC slice size should be calibrated to LP-Maker's quote lots (e.g. round up to 12 USDC or check active quote amounts before sizing the intent) — or accept that external takers (0xBd6a…9863) are the real counterparty for sub-12 USDC BTC fills.

Watcher has no visibility into whether a compatible quote exists before the intent expires

ownIntentResolved only fires on fill/expiry — watcher cannot detect mid-wait that LP-Maker's matching quote was withdrawn, leaving #831 to expire without early re-action.

SDK: expose a checkQuoteExists(asset, minAmount) helper in the watch loop so patient intents can detect counterparty dropout before expiry and fire an early wake to re-size or re-post.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Market hours rule: sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT swaps market hours only. Current time 04:57 AM ET, ~4.5h before open.

Summary: Pre-open hold remains correct and well-staged. Watcher armed (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=189) for epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC open); 9.00 USDC free, 0.004928 sNVDA held. LP-Maker is now live with sNVDA quotes — the single blocking counterparty from last summary is resolved. The pre-open hold is NOT a missed opportunity: CLAUDE.md enforces market-hours-on

Stacker is correctly dormant pre-market with 9.00 USDC ready and watcher armed for 13:30 UTC. LP-Maker's live sNVDA quotes do not alter the market-hours constraint — the hold is CLAUDE.md-correct. At open, all conditions for the first DCA slice align: free budget, armed watcher, live LP counterparty.

Market-hours rule (sNVDA 09:30–16:00 ET per CLAUDE.md) is the only reason no slice posted since intent 753 expired 06:56 UTC. Both lifetime settled deals are Swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus. No mispricing or mission deviation detected.

Sound and solving the right problem. w22–w26 show consistent pre-market reasoning: identify hours constraint, confirm budget state, re-arm for open — no churn on the actual decision. The 22/27 repeat-wake rate (81%) is expected for a patient time-gated DCA. The agent is not re-deriving the same trade; it is correctly sleeping.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) — 30s poll loop fires fireWake()

fallback: 14:00 UTC (30 min past open) if poll fires but missed

Both settled deals. Now armed=true, pidAlive=true, 11 open quotes including sNVDA — confirmed live and willing.

Vulture takes mispriced intents; Stacker posts at oracle×0.99 which is fair, not baitable.

None. sNVDA is market-hours-only per CLAUDE.md; LP-Maker quoting sNVDA pre-market does not create a tradeable window. No sweepable sell-side was present during wakes w21–w26.

Targets epoch 1781098200 precisely — no drift risk vs last summary's target

30s poll granularity catches open within one tick — appropriate for a time-gated trigger

30-min fallback (14:00 UTC) ensures slice still fires early in session if fireWake() edge-case misses

Zero LLM in watcher — pure time logic, no book dependency (correct: Stacker doesn't need the book to decide when to wake)

No sell-side monitoring pre-market — deliberate and correct given hours constraint

No LP-Maker liveness probe at poll time — if LP goes dark between now and 13:30, watcher fires into an empty book and the LLM wake burns $1.23 discovering it

At the poll step, add a lightweight on-chain read of LP-Maker's sNVDA open intent count; if 0 at open, emit a warning flag in fireWake() label so the LLM wake can short-circuit rather than posting a bid into an empty book.

No LP liveness check before firing at open

Wake fires at epoch 1781098200 regardless of whether LP-Maker has sNVDA sell-side liquidity. If LP goes dark in the ~3h window, the $1.23 wake is wasted posting a bid that can't fill.

Add a single on-chain sNVDA open-intent count check inside the poll loop; only fireWake() if count > 0 OR time is >5min past open (to avoid indefinite hold if LP is briefly slow).

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

sNVDA double-blocked: no position to sell + market hours. No buy-dip above 1.5% threshold. One deliberate action: wait.

13:30 UTC US market open OR crypto buy-dip ≥1.5% (BTC/ETH/SSV)

All 3 prior settled deals routed 100% via LP-Maker-Matheus (offline 919 min, crashed). sNVDA +2.57% signal blocked by zero position + market hours (closed until 13:30 UTC). SSV intent 0x289 (w11) expired unfilled; market liquidity too thin.

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (reassess sNVDA +2.57% signal)

Hard fallback 15:30 UTC (~7h, market close)

100% of 3 prior settled deals; natural swap counterparty for fade trader.

Fires at market open (13:30 UTC), when sNVDA signal can be reassessed — actionable trigger tied to mission, not liquidity proxy

Correct cadence (172m avg gap, patient one-slice-per-wake discipline; 7h fallback)

Zero-LLM, simple time check; no book-pinging or spurious reruns

Hard fallback (15:30 UTC) ensures agent doesn't ghost if market-open event is missed

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 919 min — core SDK promise-drop bug

Swing-nikita's sole counterparty (100% of settled deals) crashed 919 min ago. Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop uncaught. Blocks all swaps, even when signal presents.

Resolve armWatcher promise-drop in core/sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js; restart LP-Maker-Matheus.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

Playbook: rivals below 1% floor + my TTL longer → hold 1.8% beats cancel+repost at 1%. No valid rebalance. No takeable n

new edge ≥1%, pre-expiry, or 2h fallback

LP-Maker-Matheus 13/28 deals (46% of Vulture's counterparties), now offline 919 min. Rebalance intents 762/763 posted at oracle-fair (w40) and oracle+0.5% concession (w42) — fair market terms, not signal failure. Zero fills in 20–40 min window due to LP offline, not edge quality.

rebalance intent 762/763 resolved (filled/expired/cancelled)

pre-expiry: 5 min before soonest intent expiry

new takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges on 30–60s adaptive cadence)

MISSING: explicit 'when LP-Maker comes back online' trigger (relies on pre-expiry + fallback, acceptable since LP will fill any live orders)

Primary market maker for rebalance swaps; 13/28 settled deals (46%) routed through LP. Rebalance terms (oracle-fair to +0.5%) are attractive

Also does DCA swaps (rebalance buys), but specialized for USDC→portfolio mix (not general swaps). Could technically fill Vulture's intents,

Posts LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA), not general swaps. No overlap with Vulture's USDC↔sAAPL/sNVDA rebalance intents.

Monitors rebalance intent resolution (critical for current portfolio floor crisis) — correct priority.

Adaptive cadence (30–60s scan-edges, not spammy), tightens under load — good token efficiency for a patient bot.

Pre-expiry trigger (5 min before soonest expiry) — smart intent lifecycle mgmt.

2h hard fallback — reasonable patience for waiting on LP recovery.

Fires on new edge ≥1% (core mission-aligned), but only if fresh (seenEdgeIds dedup) — avoids churn.

Uses Date.now() in setTimeout/loop context (skill docs say this can throw in script runtime; note as future risk even though it's running now).

No explicit signal for 'when LP-Maker recovers' (e.g., pinging LP's health endpoint) — relies on pre-expiry + fallback. Acceptable, since live orders auto-fill

armWatcher promise-drop uncaught (LP-Maker offline 919 min)

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 919 min ago (armed=false, pidAlive=false) due to core SDK armWatcher promise-drop bug. Vulture depends on LP for 46% of settled deals; rebalance intents 762/763 stuck unfilled due to LP absence, starving all swap-dependent agents (Step 1 notes 11/16 recent settled deals = 69

Core SDK: fix armWatcher promise-drop in wake-watch.js (handle uncaught promise rejections, restart agent loop cleanly).

Negative realized PnL (-$2.21 on 28 deals)

Vulture has lost $2.21 (−$0.08/deal avg). Given portfolio floor crisis (rebalance priority, baiting paused) and LP starvation preventing fills, some PnL loss is inevitable, but worth tracking. Not an immediate blocker, but watch for repeat if LP recovery delays further.

None now (PnL loss is market/constraint-driven, not signal failure). Monitor post-LP-recovery to confirm profitability resumes.

wallet-address frequency (11/14 agents addressed)

LP BACK, INDEX DARK

Vulture-Andrew ⇄ LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Stacker-Massimo / Swing-Nikita / Rebalancer-Lior

ACTIVE — 12/16 recent deals through LP hub; armed=true, nextFallbackMin=6, 11 op

ISOLATED, WORKING — 14 settled (11 Bear↔Mimic); self-contained, no LP dependency

UNPROVEN — hash fixed w18, 0 lifetime taker fills; PUT 779 expired before fix co

DARK — wake_script_source=null both sides, 0 wakes ever, 4+ consecutive cycles u

0xBd6a…9863 → Rebalancer-Lior / Vulture-Andrew

OPPORTUNISTIC — 3 recent deals (2× Rebalancer, 1× LP-Maker); unmanaged, not reli

LP-Maker-Matheus recovered (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=6, pidAlive=false but watcher live)

12/16 recent deals now route through LP hub — Vulture (6×), Stacker, Swing, 0xb591 all filled since recovery; per-agent

Recent deal list confirms 6× Vulture↔LP, 1× Stacker↔LP, 1× Swing↔LP, 1× 0xb591↔LP; open book shows 5 active LP quotes; orient context confirms 11 open quotes

LP-Maker-Matheus lost watcher at w44 (06-09T17:19Z) despite 60-min fallback set → 931-min outage cascading into counterp

LP-Maker: last wake w44, last deal #64 at w42 16:26Z, 0 tokens in 5h, armed=false during outage; Bear-Yosher: duplicate bets at 04:09 UTC repaired in w31

Option-Taker hardcoded wrong templateHash through w1–w17

Every Option-Writer intent filtered before audit step; PUT 779 (posted 08:55 UTC, 60-min window) expired unfilled; Optio

option-taker summary: hash corrected at w18 to 0xb3d66f…; open_intents=0 at 10:51 UTC confirms PUT 779 expired; option-taker settled_deals=0 lifetime

Rebalancer-Lior posts 7 USDC lots; LP-Maker minimum is 12 USDC

Intent #831 (7 USDC → 0.0001143 BTC) unfilled for 58+ min despite LP live and rate favorable (Rebalancer 0.01633 vs LP 0

Open book: LP quotes 12 USDC → 0.0001964 BTC; #831 still open; only 1/8 Rebalancer settled deals was ↔ LP-Maker directly

index-maker and index-taker both have wake_script_source=null, never deployed

Zero index market activity across all 852 posted intents and 91 settled deals — entire synthetic-index vertical absent

Both agents: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes ever, $0 lifetime tokens — symmetric across 4+ consecutive cycles

Binary cluster (Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba) is self-contained with no LP dependency

Binary market continued operating normally through LP-Maker's 931-min outage; 14 settled BinaryBets unaffected

mimic-ljuba: deal #84 taken at w45 immediately on qualifying signal; bear-yosher: 14 settled, duplo incident repaired w31, no LP involvement in any BinaryBet

Index ecosystem never deployed — 4+ cycles, zero activity, entire vertical missing

index-maker and index-taker: wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, $0 lifetime tokens. Symmetric null state rules out single-agent failure or deliberate sequencing. No index intents appear in any of the 852 posted.

Both agents: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null across every observed cycle; settled_deals=not-indexed

Deploy wake scripts for both index-maker and index-taker simultaneously — one-sided launch reproduces starvation; the pair must go live together

armWatcher promise-drop: systemic core bug behind LP's 931-min crash and Bear's duplicate posts

Core SDK fails to guarantee fallback timer registration — LP-Maker's w44 60-min fallback was swallowed (06-09T17:19Z), causing a 931-min outage; same bug double-fired Bear-Yosher at w29b/w30. Two distinct agents, same failure mode. Agent wake-scripts are sound in both cases — the platform failed delivery.

LP-Maker: w44 last wake, armed=false through entire outage despite fallbackMs=3600000; Bear-Yosher: simultaneous wakes at 04:09:00 UTC on single trigger, duplicate repaired w31

Atomically register fallback timer before armWatcher returns; add liveness re-arm: if agent process alive but watcher state absent, auto-rearm with original fallback

Option-Taker hash fix unproven — 0 lifetime deals, next write is the real test

Hash corrected at w18 (0xb3d66f…) and agent re-armed (nextFallbackMin=90). But PUT 779 expired before fix engaged. Fix is plausible; unvalidated until Option-Writer posts next option and Option-Taker fills within the acceptance window. 'Seed risk' badge from summary also unresolved.

option-taker: 0 lifetime settled deals; PUT 779 posted 08:55 UTC, 60-min window, open_intents=0 at 10:51 = expired unfilled; fix at w18

Monitor option-taker next wake after Option-Writer's next post; confirm audit step finds intent and taker engages; also resolve reported seed risk

Rebalancer lot-size (7 USDC) structurally incompatible with LP minimum (12 USDC)

Intent #831 open 58+ min with LP live, rate favorable. Size mismatch is the sole blocker. External 0xBd6a fills 2/8 Rebalancer deals opportunistically but is unreliable as a primary counterparty.

Open book: #831 = 7 USDC → 0.0001143 BTC; LP quote = 12 USDC → 0.0001964 BTC; rebalancer: 1/8 settled deals ↔ LP directly

Rebalancer-Lior: raise slice size to ≥12 USDC to align with LP lot minimum; or LP-Maker: add partial-fill support for BTC swap template

10.7% conversion with 82% of fleet spend in 2 agents — efficiency gap during LP outage

852 posted, 91 settled (10.7%). Vulture $29.64/5h + LP-Maker $26.4/5h = $56.04/5h ≈ 82% of fleet spend. During LP's 931-min outage, significant Vulture and LP token burn was unproductive (8 Vulture intents stalled 20–40 min, LP 0 tokens in 5h).

Funnel: 852/91; orient focusAreas cite burn figures; vulture: 8 open intents unfilled during outage; lp-maker: 0 tokens in 5h window

Instrument deal-per-dollar by agent per cycle; review Vulture's baiting quota and LP's quote cadence in thin-book / LP-offline scenarios to reduce unproductive burn

LP-Maker fully recovered — hub active, Stacker and Swing staged for 13:30 UTC market open

Armed=true, 11 open quotes across ETH/BTC/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT/SSV, 12/16 recent deals routed through LP. Stacker-Massimo (9 USDC free, sNVDA held) and Swing-Nikita (sNVDA signal +2.57%) both armed and waiting for 13:30 UTC open — LP now live to fill both.

Recent deals: 6× Vulture↔LP, 1× Stacker↔LP, 1× Swing↔LP since recovery; stacker: nextFallbackMin=176 for epoch 1781098200; swing: nextFallbackMin=266

Verify quote stability through market open; monitor armWatcher cycle does not repeat promise-drop at next re-arm

Fix armWatcher promise-drop: atomically register fallback before returning; add re-arm liveness check — highest-leverage fix, eliminates root cause of LP's 931-min crash and Bear's duplicate-post incident

Deploy index-maker and index-taker wake scripts simultaneously — 4+ cycles of zero activity, entire index vertical absent from all 852 posted intents

Monitor Option-Taker next wake after Option-Writer's next option post — w18 hash fix unvalidated; 0 lifetime fills; first successful fill proves the fix

Align Rebalancer-Lior slice size to ≥12 USDC to match LP minimum lot — intent #831 currently orphaned despite favorable rate and live LP

At 13:30 UTC market open, verify Stacker-Massimo and Swing-Nikita both engage LP's live sNVDA quotes — both agents correctly staged, LP now the only remaining dependency

Major positive delta: LP-Maker-Matheus is fully recovered (armed=true, pidAlive=true, 11 open quotes, hub of 12/16 recent deals), directly contradicting last run's per-agent summary of 'offline 931 min' — the headline 'LP BACK, FLEET THAWING' has materialized into active deal flow across Vulture (31

LP-Maker recovery is real and load-bearing: 12/16 recent deals route through it, 11 active quotes across ETH/BTC/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT/SSV — verify quote stability and no gap in coverage since w28

Index pair blackout: index-maker and index-taker both armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes ever across 3+ cycles — chronic undeployed scripts, not a transient crash

Option ecosystem asymmetry: Option-Writer has 13 settled deals; Option-Taker has 0 lifetime deals despite being armed (105min fallback) — Option-Taker may be systematically missing or mis-filtering Op

High combined burn: Vulture $29.64/5h + LP-Maker $26.4/5h = $56.04/5h (~82% of fleet spend); deal-per-dollar quality check warranted given 91 total settled vs 851 posted (10.7% conversion)

Bear-Yosher BinaryBet (4 USDC → 2.666666 USDC, 13m left in book) with Mimic-Ljuba as its confirmed counterparty — does Mimic evaluate it before expiry?

Rebalancer-Lior intent #831 (7 USDC → 0.0001143 BTC) has only 5m left — LP-Maker BTC quotes are live but amounts may not align for a direct fill

With LP-Maker now live and 11 active swap quotes in the book, has arb-hunter's fill rate improved beyond its historical 2/111 (1.8%), and did the most recent wake find any actionable binary or swap edge — or is the book still too thin on bi

Bear's open BinaryBet (4 USDC → 2.666666 USDC, 13m remaining) is in the live book — did Mimic-Ljuba evaluate and take it, did it expire unfilled, or is it still pending, and what does the outcome reveal about the BinaryBet fill pipeline?

Still no watcher script deployed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0 burn across all observed cycles) — is this an intentional hold or an orchestrator deployment bug that needs a core CTA?

Mirror question to index-maker: both sides of the index market are dark with no watcher ever deployed — is the dual blackout a deliberate sequencing decision (taker waits for maker) or an independent deployment failure?

Prior summary said 'offline 931 min' but current data shows armed=true, 11 open quotes, hub of 12/16 recent deals, last_wake=28min ago — confirm the recovery is stable: are all major pairs quoted (ETH/BTC/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT/SSV), and is ther

Bear-Yosher's open BinaryBet (4 USDC → 2.666666 USDC) is live in the book — does it meet Mimic's ≥3pp edge floor, and did Mimic's last wake (33min ago, 80min fallback) evaluate and act on it before it expires?

456-min fallback puts the next mandatory wake ~7.5h out — with BTC/ETH having moved and LP-Maker back live, is the momentum field still flat (no leadership separation), or did the last wake at w12/30min ago find a new signal that justifies

Option-Taker has 0 lifetime deals despite Option-Writer posting 13 settled deals and actively writing new options (ETH PUT #779 posted ~10:05 UTC) — did Option-Taker's most recent wake successfully locate and audit any of Option-Writer's li

Engine 2 sMSFT rotation was stuck (swaps 530/533/764/804 all failed); and ETH PUT #779 was posted at w29 (~10:05 UTC) — has #779 been taken by Option-Taker or anyone, and has Engine 2 found an unblocked path to sMSFT exposure since LP-Maker

1991-min fallback (33+ hours) is the longest in the fleet — with LP-Maker back and 11 active quotes repricing the market, is Polymarket-Ljuba's 'no misprice' signal still holding, and is the 1991-min sleep interval a deliberate design choic

Intent #831 (7 USDC → 0.0001143 BTC) has ~5 minutes left in the book; LP-Maker's live BTC quotes are 0.00003 BTC → 1.85 USDC and 12 USDC → 0.0001964 BTC — did #831 fill, and if not, is the sizing mismatch between Rebalancer's intent and LP-

US market opens at 13:30 UTC (~3.2h from last run); prior summary shows Stacker armed for epoch 1781098200 with LP-Maker now live and sNVDA quotes active — is Stacker's pre-open hold correct given LP-Maker already quotes sNVDA, and will it

Swing is resting until US market open 13:30 UTC (281-min fallback), sNVDA +2.57% sell signal was flagged last summary — with LP-Maker now live and sNVDA actively quoted, is the signal still valid at current oracle price, and is the watcher

Vulture is the highest burner at $29.64/5h with 31 deals and 6 open intents — now that LP-Maker is live, have the rebalance buys (intents 762/763) been filled, and is the burn rate generating proportionate P&L or is Vulture over-posting rel

Deploy wake script for index-maker: 0 wakes across all observed cycles, armed=false, $0 burn — this is an orchestrator deployment gap, not an agent logic issue; unblocking it also unblocks index-taker

index-taker: same as index-maker — deploy wake script; consider sequencing so index-taker boots only after index-maker has posted at least one IndexBasket intent

Option-Taker-Matheus: 0 lifetime deals despite Option-Writer's 13 — audit option-taker's filtering/discovery logic against a live Option-Writer intent (e.g. ETH PUT #779) to find the systematic miss

Polymarket-Ljuba: 1991-min fallback (~33h) is dangerously long for a price-arbitrage agent — cap fallback at 60–120 min so it can react to LP-Maker repricing events without waiting over a day

Verify LP-Maker-Matheus recovery stability: prior per-agent summary was stale by 931 min at last run — confirm Step-2 picks up the live state (11 quotes, deals flowing) and reconciles the contradictio

Binary market liquidity: Bear-Yosher posts BinaryBets but only Mimic-Ljuba reliably takes them (11/15 deals) — monitor whether Bear's current open bet (expiring ~10:22 UTC) fills to assess if binary t