account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

Binary: no bets. Swap: 0 edges — gaps below floor, no matching give-leg. SSV +10bps is real but no actionable intent.

new intent >#925, OR binary bet in 30-min settlement window with CEX taker decided, OR 30-min fallback

2/4 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; 1 ↔ Vulture-Andrew; 1 prior. With LP back, fill rate jumped 5× in recent wakes. w132–w135 waits: BTC needs +$2,550 (+4.2%) rally, SSV gap real but no matching intent, binaries deeply OTM — thin-book periods, not agent failure.

New intent ID > HIGH_WATER=884 posted to open book

Binary bet within 30–1800s of settlement AND CEX taker margin ≥0.5%

Primary swap counterparty; 2/4 deals, 12 active quotes now live

Posted SSV swap arb-hunter took at +35bps (w128); Vulture posts sharp intents arb-hunter can CEX-confirm

Posts BinaryBets on BTC/ETH — arb-hunter's primary binary surface; bear's open bet (28m left) is deeply OTM so no current edge

Posts/takes BinaryBets; potential binary counterparty if near-decided

HIGH_WATER pattern correctly prevents re-firing on stale intents — advances every wake (851→884 over 7 wakes shown)

Binary check uses terms.expiry (settlement time), not posting expiry — correctly distinguishes when the bet resolves

CEX fetch gated by MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT=0.5% — prevents noise fires on negligible gaps

Zero-LLM, 30-min fallback, baseline-on-first-poll pattern is clean

ORACLE_SYMBOL map covers only BTC/ETH — SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT binary bets with those oracles would be skipped silently even if near-decided and profitable

ORACLE_SYMBOL map incomplete — misses SSV and equity binaries

watcher only maps BTC and ETH oracle addresses; SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT binary bets near settlement will never trigger a fire, even if +5% in-the-money on CEX

Add SSV and equity oracle addresses to ORACLE_SYMBOL in current.ts; fetch SSV price from a liquid CEX endpoint (e.g. Coinbase or Binance SSV-USD) and equity proxies if available

Realized PnL -$0.28 on 4 small fills (~$8-$25 notional each)

Token cost ($3.53 lifetime) is comparable to deal profit at current fill sizes; each fill is 4–8 USDC notional. Not a bug, but fill size is at the floor of economic viability

No immediate fix needed — portfolio mark is up $12; but if LP-Maker posts larger quotes, agent should confirm its per-fill cap (25% of portfolio) scales up with portfolio growth rather than staying anchored to old values

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop: w29b & w30 fired simultaneously on same intent-fill trigger (06-10 04:09:00), posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets. Not agent reasoning failure — agent correctly detects and repairs invariant violation in w31 (repost). No agent-side misreading.

Deal 74 near-expiry (5 min window before 10:17 UTC)

Intent 760 resolution (fill/expiry, ~08:55 UTC, 1h TTL)

11 of 14 settled deals (79%), reliable copy-trader, thesis-aligned (crypto-down conviction mirror)

Takes mispriced binaries; could absorb bear's resting bets if competitive, but currently posting 8 aged unfilled intents (21-40m old) himsel

Takes near-decided binaries, but latency-arbitrage focus on fast CEX feed may not align with bear's patient on-chain oracle pricing

Fires on own intent resolution (maintains exactly-one-resting-bet invariant)

Fires on ETH/BTC price moves >1.5% (crypto-down thesis edge; adversarial stop-loss)

Fires on new aligned BinaryBet on book (taker leg of mission)

4h fallback (reasonable cadence for patient conviction, not sub-minute churn)

Zero LLM in loop, lightweight price-fetch checks, scalable

armWatcher promise-drop causes duplicate wakes

w29b and w30 fired simultaneously (06-10 04:09:00) on the same intent-fill event, posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets and violating 'exactly one resting bet' invariant. Core SDK bug in armWatcher; all agents using armWatcher are at risk. This is the same root cause as LP-Maker offline (919 min, armed=f

Debug and patch armWatcher in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js: ensure fireWake() trigger is consumed atomically so only one wakeLoop iteration fires per trigger event. Verify promise handling does not double-fire on same condition.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: Sixth consecutive cycle of identical null state: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No new signal whatsoever — no file timestamp, no config delta, no external trigger, no partial boot artifact. Step 1 has formally classified this as confirmed structural deployment failure (5+ cycles). This

Index-maker has never run: 0 wakes, $0 tokens, no watcher script on disk. Six cycles of flat null data with no distinguishing signal rules out deliberate hold — this is a deployment failure requiring manual intervention. Its pair (index-taker) is in identical state, so even if deployed today, the counterparty would also need simultaneous deployment.

wake_script_source=null across all 6 observed cycles; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; 0 lifetime tokens; 0 wakes; settled_deals='not-indexed'. No watcher process has ever started.

Unmeasurable — no LLM calls have been made, no reasoning exists to evaluate. The agent has never executed.

MISSING: no watcher script exists on disk (wake_script_source=null)

designed as the natural SHORT-side counterparty for index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents

also armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wake

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never been deployed and has posted 0 intents

wake_script_source=null: no script file found or loaded — watcher has never been registered

No fallback timer, no pid, no armed flag — process management layer entirely absent

Deploy the watcher script to disk and register the process; simultaneously deploy index-taker so the counterparty exists at first wake — a maker with no taker and no other IndexBasket consumer will post intents that expire unfilled.

Watcher script never deployed

wake_script_source=null for 6 consecutive cycles. No watcher process has ever started (armed=false, pidAlive=false). This is not a crash — it is a missing deployment artifact.

Write current.ts to the index-maker agent directory, register the watcher, and verify armed=true on next cycle. Coordinate with index-taker deploy — both must be live simultaneously or the maker posts into a vacuum.

Paired deployment dependency: index-taker also undeployed

index-taker is in identical null state (armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0, 0 wakes). Deploying index-maker alone produces intents with zero auditing counterparties on the fleet.

Treat index-maker and index-taker as a single deployment unit — ship both in the same operation.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 6th consecutive cycle of identical null state: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No change whatsoever. The dependency theory ('taker waits for maker') is now fully refuted: index-maker is in the same null state across all 6 cycles — no maker deployment preceded or triggered taker; both fa

Zero activity across 6 observer cycles. wake_script_source=null and nextFallbackMin=null confirm no process exists and no wakeup is scheduled — this agent has never run. The dependency theory is refuted: index-maker is equally undeployed, so no 'maker-first' trigger ever fired.

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes ever, $0 lifetime tokens — identical across cycles 1-6; index-maker shows same null profile, refuting dependency chain theory

No reasoning to assess — agent has never executed. The dependency hypothesis ('taker waits for maker to post IndexBasket intents before deploying') has been falsified by 6 cycles of index-maker also being undeployed. There is no evidence of any intentional wait logic; the symmetry points to a shared root deployment failure.

MISSING: no wake script exists (null source)

MISSING: no fallback scheduled (nextFallbackMin=null)

MISSING: no process alive (pidAlive=false)

Sole intended counterparty — posts LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker would SHORT

unavailable — armed=false, pidAlive=fals

unmeasurable: agent never deployed; watcher blind to book. No IndexBasket intents observable from this agent's perspective.

No wake script exists at all (source=null)

Deploy the agent: write and register a wake script that polls for open LONG IndexBasket intents, fetches verified source from the indexer, runs the audit-custom-deal skill, and crosses only on ACCEPT — this is the entire unimplemented missi

Agent never deployed — wake script missing

wake_script_source=null across 6 cycles. No process, no fallback, no wakes. The dependency theory (waits for index-maker) is refuted: index-maker is equally undeployed, so no maker-first trigger exists. Both index agents appear to have failed at the initial deployment step.

Create current.ts for index-taker with: (1) poll indexer for open LONG IndexBasket intents, (2) fetch + verify contract source, (3) run audit-custom-deal, (4) cross on ACCEPT only. Deploy alongside index-maker — both need to launch together.

index-maker co-dependency: both agents must deploy together

index-taker has no intents to take until index-maker posts them. With index-maker also at armed=false/pidAlive=false, deploying taker alone produces zero activity. Both must be initialized in the same deployment step.

Coordinate index-maker and index-taker deployment as a single operation — deploy maker first, confirm it posts an IndexBasket intent, then deploy taker.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Large oracle moves triggered volTerm widening. SHORT skew on all crypto: ETH critically thin ($0.25) after fill. No ETH

Summary: Offline 931 min (+10 from last run's 921 min) — no recovery, no partial restart. Confirmed pre-crash: last deal was #64 at w42 (06-09T16:26), last wake w44 at 06-09T17:19 armed the 60-min fallback but promise-drop swallowed it. The 12 quotes posted at w44 (IDs 609, 620–631, expiry ~17:58–18:05 UTC) have been expired ~14+ hours; book now has zero LP-Maker dep

Still crashed at 931 min (armed=false, pidAlive=false). The settled_deals list is 100% pre-crash history — no on-chain fills since w42 and zero evidence of manual restart. The armWatcher 60-min fallback fired at ~06-09T18:19 UTC but the promise-drop bug silently discarded it. Every warm taker (Vulture, Rebalancer, Swing, Stacker) is now without their primary fill counterparty.

armWatcher promise-drop at w44 (06-09T17:19Z): fallbackMs=3600000 should have triggered at ~18:19Z but orchestrator never received the return; armed=false, pidAlive=false confirmed. Last deal #64 at w42 (16:26Z), 0 tokens in 5h, open_intents=0. Not agent logic — wake-script is sound.

The agent's reasoning through w38–w44 was disciplined and on-mission (quote freshness, oracle guards, rebalancing shorts after fills). The crash is purely a platform failure, not a reasoning failure. The w44 script correctly set a 60-min fallback — it just was never honoured.

quote expiry (~45 min, myIntentIds list)

new fillable network intent matching HOLD set

MISSING: watcher never fires — promise-drop means runWatchLoop is never scheduled by orchestrator

9 fills with LP-Maker pre-crash; primary swap taker, active with 8 open intents now

1 fill, primarily options/binaries not swaps

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (process dead). However, Vulture-Andrew has 8 unfilled open intents aged 20–40 min and $11.44/5h burn — those are highly probable LP-Maker fills that went unfilled. Rebalancer, Swing, Stacker all posted swap intents with no maker to fill them.

Tracks own quote expiry by ID — correct trigger for an LP whose main risk is phantom depth from stale quotes

Oracle breach check (±15–50 bps) via belt is well-calibrated for a near-mid quoter

60-min fallback is appropriate cadence for an LP (not sub-minute polling)

canFill guard on HOLD set prevents waking on irrelevant intents

Script is sound but moot — the core armWatcher promise-drop prevents it from ever being scheduled

Fix core: armWatcher must await and validate the promise return from the orchestrator; if it drops, retry or surface an error rather than silent no-op. Agent-side script needs no changes.

armWatcher promise-drop kills LP restart

w44 fallbackMs=3600000 was set at 06-09T17:19Z; orchestrator should have re-woken at ~18:19Z but the promise was dropped. Now 931 min offline. Every taker agent dependent on LP-Maker swaps is starved. This is the single highest-leverage fix in the fleet.

armWatcher must confirm the orchestrator acknowledged the scheduled callback; add a heartbeat or explicit ack — if none received within 2 min, surface a hard error rather than silently dropping the fallback.

Expired quote IDs in wake-script will fire immediately on restart

myIntentIds in the w44 script includes IDs 609, 620–631, all expired ~14h ago. On restart these will all resolve as 'expired', firing multiple redundant wakes in quick succession.

On restart, agent should clear the myIntentIds list or check expiry timestamp before looping — or the first wake should just re-quote fresh rather than chasing resolved IDs.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Intent #869 taker side (BTC above $63.5k in 23h) at +42pp edge = cost-implied 60% vs fair ~18% = well above 3pp floor, 1

new BinaryBet OR stock market open 13:30 UTC (90min fallback)

Summary: Since w45/deal #84, Mimic has been highly active: 3 new deals taken (deal #87 w47 +35pp, deal #88 w51 +40pp, deal #93 w53 +42pp), all Bear-Yosher BinaryBets, all well above the ≥3pp floor. Edge discipline remains consistent. Intent #778 (BTC below $62k, posted w46 mirroring Bear's bearish flow) is the one outstanding posting. Bear is armed/alive (fallback 15

3 deals since last summary (deals #87, #88, #93) at +35–42pp edge, all on discipline. Bear is alive and the market-open trigger fires in ~37min — Mimic is positioned for the next Bear tech-equity BinaryBet wave. Critical watcher bug: STOCK_MARKET_OPEN_MS is hardcoded to epoch 1781104600 (today only) — after 13:30 UTC today that trigger dead-codes permanently.

16/16 settled deals are ↔ Bear-Yosher exclusively. Zero counterparty diversity — if Bear goes offline, Mimic's deal flow stops entirely. Deal IDs: #84, #87, #88, #93 and all 16 settled entries confirm single-counterparty lock-in.

Sound and on-mission. ≥3pp edge floor enforced consistently across w46–w53: idle at w48/w49/w50/w52 when floor unmet, active at w47/w51/w53 when edge 35–42pp. Correctly ignores Option-Writer ↔ Bear settlement as out-of-scope. No churn. The one concern is that the reasoning is structurally sound but solving an increasingly narrow problem — it only evaluates Bear's flow, not the whole BinaryBet book

new BinaryBet intent on book (template 0x09cd...)

stock market open at 13:30 UTC (hardcoded epoch 1781104600 — TODAY ONLY, dead after 13:30)

90min fallback (nextFallbackMin=48, so ~42min elapsed)

Sole counterparty for all 16 deals; posts BinaryBets Mimic prices and takes. Bear armed/alive, last wake 92min ago, fallback 153min.

Also takes near-decided BinaryBets — could compete for same Bear intents rather than be a counterparty.

Takes near-decided binaries too — overlapping taker universe, not a maker Mimic can take from.

None verifiable from this data — all high-edge taker opportunities on Bear's BinaryBets appear to have been taken (deals #87, #88, #93 in w47/w51/w53). Watcher fires on new intents so latency to book is low. However: if any non-Bear agent posted a BinaryBet above 3pp edge, Mimic would take it — no evidence such intents existed this window.

Polls on new BinaryBet template matches — correct primary trigger for a copy-trader

Fires on stock market open (13:30 UTC) to scan sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT — well-reasoned for Bear's tech-equity flow

60s poll cadence appropriate; 90min fallback present

Uses newMatches() correctly to filter new intents only vs baseline

STOCK_MARKET_OPEN_MS = 1781104600 * 1000 is a hardcoded epoch (2026-06-10 13:30 UTC) — fires once, then dead-codes forever. After today's open, market-open trig

No lower bound on BinaryBet stake size — could wake on a dust bet Bear posts

Replace hardcoded `STOCK_MARKET_OPEN_MS` with a daily time-of-day check: compute today's 13:30 UTC dynamically each loop iteration (e.g. `const todayOpen = new Date(); todayOpen.setUTCHours(13,30,0,0);`) so the trigger fires every trading d

STOCK_MARKET_OPEN_MS hardcoded to single epoch — dead after today

wake_script line: `const STOCK_MARKET_OPEN_MS = 1781104600 * 1000; // 2026-06-10 13:30 UTC`. After 13:30 UTC today, `Date.now() >= STOCK_MARKET_OPEN_MS` is permanently true but already fired — depending on whether fireWake is idempotent, this either misfires every tick or silently never triggers the

Compute daily open dynamically: `const now = new Date(); const todayOpen = new Date(Date.UTC(now.getUTCFullYear(), now.getUTCMonth(), now.getUTCDate(), 13, 30, 0)); if (Date.now() >= todayOpen.getTime() && Date.now() < todayOpen.getTime() + 60_000) fireWake(...)` — window-gate to avoid repeated fire

Single counterparty dependency — Bear-Yosher sole source of all 16 deals

100% deal flow depends on Bear-Yosher posting. If Bear goes offline (as LP-Maker did for 931min last cycle), Mimic goes idle indefinitely. No evaluation of BinaryBets from other agents observed.

Confirm in CLAUDE.md that Mimic is permitted to take BinaryBets from any poster (not just Bear) — if so, no code change needed, it already uses template-hash filtering which is poster-agnostic. If Bear-only is intended, document it explicitly.

Intent #778 (BTC below $62k) posted w46 — status unknown

w46 log shows intent #778 posted on-chain (tx 0x19ef4c...). w50 notes 'Intent #778 (my pos)' still open. No settlement or expiry confirmed in wake log. If it expired unmatched, that's expected given BTC at $61,154 vs $62k strike; if it's still live with BTC now rallied, it may be at risk.

Verify intent #778 expiry/status at next wake — no action needed if expired cleanly, but log it explicitly so the summary chain is clean.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Edge threshold unmet. Market chopping without leadership. Watcher died (session restart), relaunching to restore automat

crypto momentum gap ≥2pp OR US market open 13:30 UTC OR 8h fallback

Summary: Watcher DOES have the market-open trigger and will fire at 13:30 UTC (~39 min), not at the 5.5h fallback — Step-1 focus question resolved YES. Prior idle streak w12–w15 remains disciplined threshold filtering (no 2pp gap in co-declining crypto). LP-Maker recovery (10 active quotes on BTC/ETH/SSV/sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) restores fill-side for any intent, removing

Watcher fires at 13:30 UTC today via explicit time trigger — not idling 5.5h. LP-Maker's return with 10 quotes across all relevant assets removes the fill-side blocker that expired #741 and #745. One urgent fix: MARKET_OPEN_UTC literal becomes a permanently-passed timestamp after today, turning every 60s poll into a spurious wake from June 11 onward.

Only 1 settled deal in 15 wakes ($0 tokens last 5h). #741 (1h window) and #745 (8h window) both expired unfilled — LP-Maker was offline during both postings. With LP now back, fill-side blocker is resolved for next intent. No 2pp gap has materialized since w11 (SSV lead, 3.58pp fast / 2.06pp slow) w

Sound, solving the right problem. Threshold discipline (2pp) correctly filtered w12–w15 noise; agent did not churn. Market-open trigger is well-reasoned: stocks add diversity to the ranking field and are the most likely momentum source post-13:30 UTC. No evidence of recycling the same stale move.

crypto pair divergence ≥2pp among BTC/ETH/SSV (60s poll)

8h fallback (armWatcher FALLBACK_MS = 8*3600_000)

MISSING: date-agnostic next-market-open calculation — after today the literal is permanently exceeded and every 60s poll fires a spurious wake

10 active quotes on BTC, ETH, SSV, sNVDA, sAAPL, sMSFT — covers the full momentum ranking field; 8 of last 16 settled deals as counterparty

trades same assets (BTC/ETH/stocks) via delivered swaps; directional opposite when fading dislocations momentum creates

7 USDC lot size too small; momentum posts ~$51 intents; LP minimum mismatch anyway

none — no 2pp+ gap has appeared since w11 (SSV 3.58pp). Crypto co-declining, stocks frozen pre-open. Watcher cannot rank stocks until market open fires, so the opportunity window opens at 13:30 UTC.

Three-trigger design: gap | market-open | fallback — covers crypto momentum, equity rotation, and time-boxed patience

Live baseline captured on first poll (not hardcoded) — gap is measured from real entry context

60s cadence is appropriate for momentum detection without being wasteful

Market-open trigger correctly routes stocks back into full-field ranking post-13:30 UTC

MARKET_OPEN_UTC = new Date('2026-06-10T13:30:00Z') is a one-day literal — tomorrow Date.now() > this forever, every poll fires immediately

No stock symbols in CRYPTO array; after market-open fires and agent wakes, the watcher relaunched next cycle must include sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT in the gap-check or

Replace the hardcoded MARKET_OPEN_UTC literal with a daily-recalculating next-open: compute the next 13:30 UTC that is still in the future (advance date by 1 day if today's open has already passed). This is a one-line fix that prevents the

MARKET_OPEN_UTC hardcoded to 2026-06-10 — stale from tomorrow

Line: `const MARKET_OPEN_UTC = new Date("2026-06-10T13:30:00Z").getTime()`. After 13:30 UTC today, Date.now() permanently exceeds this value. Every 60s poll will fireWake('US market open…'), burning tokens and waking the LLM every minute.

Compute next 13:30 UTC dynamically: `const now = Date.now(); const todayOpen = new Date(new Date().toISOString().slice(0,10)+'T13:30:00Z').getTime(); const MARKET_OPEN_UTC = todayOpen > now ? todayOpen : todayOpen + 86_400_000;`

Post-market-open wake doesn't include equity symbols in gap check

After the 13:30 UTC wake fires, the re-launched watcher should track sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT in the CRYPTO array alongside BTC/ETH/SSV for the full-field ranking the mission describes. Current script only ever polls the three crypto symbols.

After market open, extend the watched symbols array (or reload script with EQUITY=[...]) so intraday gap detection covers the same universe the LLM ranks.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

take-option.ts --scan reported optionTemplateHash=0xb3d66f... (derived from creationCode.json via keccak256), but wake-s

a new audited Option intent appears (or 2h)

Summary: W18 fixed the templateHash (0xb3d66f4b…) and w19 (14:02, 32 min ago) is the first post-fix scan — it ran cleanly and returned 'No audited Option intents found', confirming the fix is operational. Across all 19 wakes (w12–w19), every scan has returned zero audited Option intents; 0 deals is entirely supply-side: option-writer-matheus has 13 lifetime deals but

The w18 templateHash fix is confirmed working: w19 executed a clean book scan with the correct hash and found 0 audited Option intents. All 19 wakes show the same result — no supply, not a taker-side fault. The single unlock is option-writer-matheus posting an open Option intent; until then, 0 deals is the market's state, not agent failure.

w12–w19 all log 'No audited Option intents found'; option-writer-matheus has 13 lifetime deals (health=ok) but 0 currently open option intents visible in the book; no other agent in the fleet writes audited Options

Sound and correctly scoped. The agent identified and fixed the only real bug (templateHash), confirmed it at w19, and is now polling cheaply (tokens_5h_usd=$0). No churn — avg_gap_min=102 is appropriate for a patient taker waiting on thin supply. The reasoning loop is solving the right problem; the market is just empty.

new audited Option intent appears with templateHash=0xb3d66f4b… (newMatches filter)

MISSING: audited Options already in the book at watcher-start are added to `seen` and silently skipped — won't fire until the 2h fallback even if a valid option

sole Option writer in the fleet, 13 lifetime deals, health=ok — but currently 0 open option intents

active but not currently quoting options

none — book has been empty of audited Option intents across all 19 wakes; no takeable intents existed post-fix

fires exclusively on new audited Option intents via templateHash filter — correct and tight

2h fallback prevents indefinite silence in a thin market

zero-LLM, lightweight poll — $0 burn in 5h window is correct for a patient taker

templateHash hardcoded from creationCode keccak256, not derived at runtime — stable

seen set is initialized from current book state: if a valid audited Option intent is already open when the watcher starts, it's silently added to seen and won't

no logging of how many total Option-templateHash intents (vs audited ones) are seen — can't distinguish 'book empty' from 'wrong hash still filtering everything

On first-loop seen-initialization, check the current intents for any audited Options (isAuditedOption) before populating seen — if any match, fireWake immediately rather than adding them to seen. This closes the gap where a pre-existing opt

Pre-existing audited Option intents missed until 2h fallback

The watcher initializes `seen` from the live book on first poll. Any audited Option intent already open at that moment is added to `seen` and excluded from future newMatches checks — the agent won't act on it until the 2h fallback fires the next wake.

Before populating `seen`, run isAuditedOption over the initial intent list; if any match, call fireWake('pre-existing audited Option intent <intentId> found') instead of silently seeding seen with it.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Stock legs must only trade during US market hours (13:30-20:00 UTC). sMSFT drift -$17.50 requires action but must wait f

US market open 13:30 UTC — sMSFT rebalance (~$17.50)

Summary: Prior: ETH PUT 779 posted at 08:55 (accept window 60min, closes ~09:55), sMSFT rotation stuck at 4 failed swaps (530/533/764/804). New since last summary: PUT 779 almost certainly expired unfilled — open_intents=0 at 10:51 UTC, no settlement recorded, Option-Taker (0 lifetime deals) never engaged in the 60min window. w31 correctly diagnosed root structural c

ETH PUT #779 expired unfilled in a 60-min window with Option-Taker at 0 lifetime deals and no other taker appearing; sMSFT rebalance ($17.50 sleeve deficit) is structurally blocked — LP-Maker confirmed non-taker for stock tokens (w31 diagnosis). Agent is correctly armed for 13:30 UTC market open but will face the same empty book problem; the unblocked path to sMSFT exposure does not yet exist in this fleet.

PUT 779: posted 08:55, 60-min window, open_intents=0 at 10:51 = expired unfilled; Option-Taker lifetime deals = 0. sMSFT: swaps 530/533/764/804 all failed; w31 self-diagnosed 'LP only trades belt tokens'; Bear-Yosher (tech equities up conviction, 16 deals) is the only plausible sMSFT taker but has n

Sound and improving. w28 panic (encoding failure) was self-corrected at w29 with template validation. w31 correctly stopped reposting sMSFT after diagnosing LP structural constraint — avoided token burn on doomed swaps. w33 correctly gates stock legs to market hours (13:30–20:00 UTC). The agent is solving the right problems; the block is counterparty absence, not reasoning failure.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-10T13:30:00Z (US market open for sMSFT rebalance)

MISSING: no trigger on option book — if Option-Taker or Polymarket-Ljuba posts a taker intent for ETH options before 13:30, this agent sleeps through it

Mission-designed buyer for ETH/BTC options written by this agent; cash-settled PUT 779 was exactly on-mission for it

armed, 105min fallback, but 0 lifetime d

Belt tokens only (ETH/BTC/USDC/sAAPL/sNVDA/SSV); confirmed non-taker for sMSFT swaps per w31 diagnosis

active, 11 open quotes, 12/16 recent dea

Tech equities UP conviction aligns with sMSFT long; has capacity (16 deals, ok health); 1 settled deal with this agent already

ok health, active — but no evidence of s

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents; 2 deals, active — could have evaluated PUT 779

ok health, 2 deals — unknown if it saw P

None on the taker side (agent is a maker for options and a buyer for stock/crypto swaps). On the option-writing side: PUT 779 was correctly priced (3% premium, 1% OTM, 2hr term) and went unfilled — the miss is Option-Taker's failure to engage, scoped fleet/core. sMSFT misses are structural: no counterparty exists regardless of timing.

Fires precisely at 13:30 UTC US market open — correct gate for stock-token legs per mission rules

10-min fallback (13:40) ensures the wake happens even if the loop fires slightly late

Label clearly states the intent ('sMSFT rebalance ~$17.50') — unambiguous audit trail

Zero-LLM, deterministic time check — no hallucination risk in the watcher itself

No option-book trigger: if Option-Taker or Polymarket-Ljuba opens a taker window for ETH options before 13:30, agent misses it entirely

Market-open wake will hit the same structural wall — sMSFT has no known taker; the wake is well-timed but the post-wake action is likely to fail again

Add a secondary trigger (or pre-wake check at 13:30) that evaluates whether any stock-token counterparty (Bear-Yosher open intents, Polymarket book) is present for sMSFT before reposting; if none, pivot the $17.50 Engine 2 slice to sAAPL (L

Option-Taker never executes: option ecosystem one-sided

Option-Taker-Matheus has 0 lifetime deals despite being armed. PUT 779 (collateral $8, 3% premium, 60-min window) was a textbook on-mission fill — it expired untouched. This is a fleet-level blocker: Option-Writer cannot realize premium income without a functioning taker.

Diagnose Option-Taker: read its wake script and recent wakes to determine if it saw PUT 779 and rejected it (pricing logic?) or never evaluated it (watcher blind to option book). If blind, add an option-book trigger to its watcher.

Engine 2 sMSFT path permanently blocked without counterparty discovery

5 consecutive failed sMSFT swaps (530/533/764/804 + pending at 13:30). LP-Maker confirmed non-taker. Bear-Yosher is the only plausible counterparty (tech equities up) but has not filled stock tokens. Repeating the same swap post at market open is rational patience only if there's evidence a taker ex

At 13:30 wake, before posting sMSFT swap: check Bear-Yosher's open intents and recent activity for stock-token appetite. If no signal, redirect the $17.50 Engine 2 slice to sAAPL (LP-Maker fills it reliably) and note sMSFT as parked until a taker appears.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

sAAPL held in wallet but needsApproval=true — without approval, exit swap cannot execute. Approved preemptively before h

sAAPL stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75) hit; new binary/option intent; fallback Jun11 20:00 UTC

Summary: w19–w26 all returned 'no misprice'; w26 preemptively approved sAAPL (tx 0xf1458336) — correct friction-removal. Agent holds 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 entry, watching for stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / Jun12 horizon. Fallback of ~31h is the Jun11 20:00 UTC 'assess maker candidates' window — NOT a 31h sleep; watcher polls every 60s for price triggers AND new

Agent is correctly armed and actively polling — not hibernating. The ~31h fallback is structural (pre-expiry assessment at Jun11 20:00 UTC); live triggers fire within 60s on price breach or new intent. LP-Maker's 10 active quotes are primarily swaps; no new binary/option intentIds have appeared to trigger a wake, so 'no misprice' signal remains valid by the watcher's detection capability. The one real gap: if LP reprices an existing binary/option intent without posting a new intentId, polymarket-ljuba won't see it until a price trigger fires or the Jun11 fallback lands.

2 lifetime deals (1 swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus). Binary/option intents are sparse on the book; watcher new-intent polling has not fired since w26. LP's recovery adds swap liquidity but no confirmed new binary/option postings yet.

Sound and on-mission. The agent correctly distinguishes 'holding existing position' from 'seeking new entries' and manages both in one watcher. The sAAPL approval (w26) shows forward-looking friction-removal. The repeated 'no misprice' verdict is credible given a thin binary/option book — this is patient waiting, not a reasoning loop. The one concern: it cannot distinguish 'no mispriced intents ex

sAAPL oracle price <= $277.34 (stop, -4% from entry)

sAAPL oracle price >= $303.75 (forward, +4.8%)

sAAPL horizon expiry: blockchain nowTs >= 1781294400 (Jun12 20:00 UTC)

New binary/option intentId appears in readOpenIntents (60s poll)

Fallback: Jun11 20:00 UTC (~31h, pre-expiry maker-candidate assessment)

MISSING: rate change on an existing binary/option intentId (watcher sees new IDs only)

Only settled counterparty (1 swap deal); now back with 10 active quotes including sAAPL — if LP posts new binary/option intents, watcher cat

LIVE — 10 active quotes, fully recovered

Primary target: posts options polymarket-ljuba is designed to value and take; 13 lifetime deals suggests active posting

ok — key counterparty to watch at market

Posts BinaryBets below oracle — polymarket-ljuba could evaluate these against Polymarket distribution

Posts sharp/baited binaries; polymarket-ljuba could find misprice vs Polymarket on these

Unmeasurable for repriced existing intents — watcher blind to rate changes on in-place intentIds. For new intents: none detected by watcher since w26; US market open (~13:30 UTC today) is the next likely catalyst for fresh option-writer-matheus postings that would trigger a wake.

Price stop/forward triggers are well-calibrated to the held sAAPL position ($277.34 / $303.75 from $290.79 entry)

Fallback at Jun11 20:00 UTC is structurally correct — 24h pre-expiry assessment window, not arbitrary

60s poll for new binary/option intentIds is the right cadence for a taker agent (not sub-minute, not hourly)

Reads horizonTs from state.json rather than hardcoding, with correct fallback to 1781294400

FALLBACK_MS = Math.max(..., 4h) prevents sub-4h fallback if called near Jun11 deadline

No trigger for rate changes on existing intentIds — a repriced option by option-writer-matheus would not fire a wake

No market-open trigger for today's 13:30 UTC US open — fleet expects activity spike; watcher won't proactively check

lastWakeBets initialized to null means the very first poll pass silently skips new-intent detection (sets baseline rather than evaluating)

Add a periodic 4-6h auxiliary fallback or a dedicated 13:30 UTC market-open trigger for today's session, so the agent re-evaluates the book when LP-Maker and option-writer-matheus are most likely to have posted fresh binary/option intents.

Watcher blind to rate changes on existing intentIds

The 60s poll detects new intentIds but not price/rate updates on in-place intents. If LP-Maker or option-writer-matheus reprices an existing option without reposting a new intentId, polymarket-ljuba won't re-evaluate until a price trigger or the Jun11 fallback fires.

Track last-seen rates (or createdAt timestamps) per intentId alongside the ID set, and fireWake when a known intentId's rate changes by more than a threshold (e.g. 2%).

No market-open wake trigger for today's US open

Fleet expects an activity spike at ~13:30 UTC today (Swing, Momentum, Stacker all armed for it). polymarket-ljuba has no trigger for this window — it will only wake if a new intentId appears or price breaches, which may lag the actual posting surge.

Add a one-time fireWake at US market open timestamp (today 13:30 UTC = 1749558600) alongside the existing triggers, for today's session only.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

BTC most-underweight 24/7 leg at -7.3pp. 5th consecutive expiry but oracle jumped +$575; keeping DCA live while waiting

intent #926 resolves (fill/expire) OR stocks market open 13:30 UTC

Summary: 4th consecutive BTC DCA failure at 7 USDC lot size (w20→w21 #777 expired, w22 #831 expired, w23 #887 now almost certainly expired — posted 51 min ago, intent had 12 min left at Step-1 observation time). Agent's w23 rationale 'LP may come alive at this lower oracle' misdiagnoses the blocker: LP-Maker minimum is a lot-size floor (12 USDC), not an oracle-price

Rebalancer has posted the same 7 USDC BTC intent 4 times; all have expired or are about to. LP-Maker's 12 USDC minimum is a hard lot-size constraint — the agent's own reasoning ('LP may come alive at lower oracle') is incorrect and will cause a 5th identical failure. 0xBd6a has not shown confirmed recent book presence. The only near-term unblocking event is stocks market open at 13:30 UTC.

LP-Maker minimum = 12 USDC; every BTC intent posted at 7 USDC (w20, w21 #777 expired, w22 #831 expired, w23 #887 ~expired). 0xBd6a took 2/8 lifetime deals at small lots but no confirmed current book presence. No other demonstrated small-lot BTC taker in fleet.

Sound process, wrong diagnosis. Agent correctly identifies it is BTC-underweight and that LP is not filling — but attributes non-fill to 'lower oracle price' rather than LP's lot-size floor. This is the key reasoning error: it produces a confident-looking rationale for repeating a structurally blocked action. Increasing the oracle-competitive price does nothing when the minimum is 12 USDC and the

intent #887 resolved (ownIntentResolved poll every 60s)

stocks market open 2026-06-10T13:30:00Z fallback (36 min remaining)

12 USDC minimum lot size; current BTC intent is 7 USDC — hard floor, not price-sensitive

Only demonstrated small-lot BTC taker (2/8 deals); external address, reliability unknown

Taker of mispriced/near-decided deals, not a BTC swap maker

none confirmed — agent correctly checked the book for favorable takes at w18 (took sAAPL) and w19 (no stock takes available). No evidence of a fillable take it passed on since last summary.

Dual trigger is correct: intent resolution (fill/expire) fires first, stocks market open as hard fallback — no wasted sleep

60s poll interval appropriate for a patient DCA agent

Watcher is zero-LLM, has fallback, and armed correctly (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=36)

Watches for intent resolution but cannot detect lot-size mismatch — agent will post another 7 USDC intent at next wake unless the mission CLAUDE.md is corrected

No watcher change needed — the watcher logic is correct. The fix belongs in the agent's CLAUDE.md: add an explicit constraint 'BTC lot minimum 12 USDC to be LP-fillable' so the next wake posts a fillable intent instead of repeating the stru

Incorrect diagnosis of LP non-fill: oracle price vs lot-size floor

Agent's w23 log states 'LP may come alive at this lower oracle' — but LP-Maker minimum is 12 USDC regardless of price. 7 USDC lots are always below the floor. This reasoning will produce a 5th identical expiry.

Add to rebalancer-lior CLAUDE.md: 'LP-Maker minimum lot is 12 USDC; BTC DCA slices must be ≥ 12 USDC to be LP-fillable. Do not post below this threshold and attribute failure to oracle price.'

4 consecutive failed BTC DCA slices with zero lot-size adaptation

w20 → w21 (#777 expired) → w22 (#831 expired, agent logged '3rd attempt') → w23 (#887, almost certainly expired). Mission is DCA progress; zero fills = zero progress. BTC remains -7.4pp underweight.

Bump BTC DCA slice to 12–15 USDC to enter LP-fillable range. If budget constrains lot size below 12 USDC, document that BTC DCA is blocked until budget allows a fillable slice and shift focus to stock rebalancing (sAAPL underweight -15pp, stocks open in ~36 min).

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Pre-market window; CLAUDE.md enforces 09:30–16:00 ET only. No fills possible now by design. 2 settled deals both with LP-Maker-Matheus confirm the path clears at open.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) via 30-second poll loop

fallback at 14:00 UTC (open + 30 min) if poll misses

Both settled deals were LP-Maker fills; LP has live sNVDA quote (12 USDC lot) and is confirmed able to fill Stacker's 0.50 USDC slices

Fires exactly at epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) — the only moment Stacker is allowed to act

30-second poll cadence is appropriate: lightweight, zero-LLM, no book dependency

Fallback at open+30 min (14:00 UTC) is a sensible safety net; nextFallbackMin=129 confirms it resolves to ~14:00 UTC from current ~11:51 UTC

No book-watching needed for a pure DCA mission — correctly omitted

fallbackMs when already past open evaluates to 30 min from invocation time, which is correct but implicit — a comment would prevent future confusion

LP lot-size headroom shrinks as sNVDA price rises

LP posts 12 USDC lots; Stacker posts 0.50 USDC. Confirmed fills show LP accepts sub-lot today, but if LP tightens minimums or oracle price moves, 0.50 USDC may become un-fillable. Currently 9.00 USDC / 18 wakes remaining.

Monitor: if next fill at 13:30 fails despite LP live, check whether LP minimum crossed 0.50 USDC threshold and adjust slice size in CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

sNVDA double-blocked: no position to sell + market hours. No buy-dip above 1.5% threshold. One deliberate action: wait.

13:30 UTC US market open OR crypto buy-dip ≥1.5% (BTC/ETH/SSV)

Summary: Still correctly armed for 13:30 UTC US market open (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=156 → 15:30 UTC fallback). sNVDA sell signal blocked NOT by LP absence but by zero sNVDA position — a structural constraint LP-Maker's return does NOT fix. LP back does unlock the BUY side: SSV dip at w11 expired unfilled partly because LP was offline; now LP quote

sNVDA sell signal is actionable in 39 min only if Swing acquires sNVDA first — it has 0 position. LP-Maker returning is immaterial for the sell path but removes the SSV fill-risk that killed the w11 intent (23 USDC → 11.68 SSV, expired unfilled). All 3 lifetime deals are LP-Maker swaps; reliable counterparty count stays at 1.

w17+w18 both cite 'sNVDA double-blocked: market hours + zero position.' Zero position is the binding constraint — even with LP quoting sNVDA, Swing cannot sell what it doesn't own. SSV buy-dip at w11 expired unfilled; LP offline at the time was the fill-side gap.

Sound reasoning solving the right problem. Agent correctly distinguishes two separate blockers (market hours vs zero position) and does not re-post into a thin book (churn guard at w12, 'no tiny unfillable reposts' at w13). Waiting behavior is deliberate and documented. One subtle gap: at market open the agent will find sNVDA sell-strength but still can't act — it needs to pivot to a BUY signal or

Time: Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_TS (2026-06-10T13:30:00Z) — fires in ~39 min

Price: BTC ≤ 60,438 / ETH ≤ 1,610 / SSV ≤ 1.98 (trailing * 0.985, hardcoded from w18)

MISSING: no sNVDA price watch during market hours — agent must wake first to detect equity dislocations in real time

Only counterparty for all 3 settled deals; now back with 10 quotes including SSV, BTC, ETH, sNVDA — covers every asset Swing trades

Buying sNVDA 0.50 USDC/wake — could absorb a Swing sNVDA sell if Swing ever acquires a position, but size mismatch (Swing slices ~23 USDC)

DCA swaps too small (7 USDC) and below LP minimum; wrong template

None verifiable. SSV dip at w11 was acted on (intent posted); it expired unfilled due to thin book + LP offline. LP is now back — if SSV re-dips ≥1.5% below 2.01, the fill path now exists. No other dislocation signals visible in wake log since w11.

Time trigger exactly at 13:30 UTC market open — correct for an equity fade trader

Continuous crypto-dip poll (60s loop) on BTC/ETH/SSV — right cadence for a patient agent

Hard fallback at 15:30 UTC prevents indefinite sleep

No book-watch — correct: Swing's mission is oracle-dislocation, not counterparty flow

Trailing averages hardcoded at w18 values (BTC: 61,378.68, ETH: 1,635.46, SSV: 2.01) — will be stale if prices drift before market open; the full wake recompute

No awareness that sNVDA sell signal requires a long position — watcher will fire at 13:30 UTC and agent will immediately find its sNVDA sell blocked again; no s

Fetch fresh trailing averages each poll iteration (or at watcher start) rather than hardcoding w18 snapshots — a 2%+ BTC move in 2h could push the dip threshold off by $1,200+, causing a miss or spurious wake.

sNVDA sell signal permanently blocked until Swing holds sNVDA

Agent has cited sNVDA +2.57% sell-strength for multiple cycles but has 0 position. This signal will never be actionable from the sell side under current portfolio. The agent correctly identifies the blocker but doesn't pivot — it's waiting for the same blocked path every wake.

At market open, if sNVDA sell is blocked by zero position AND a buy-dip doesn't exist, agent should explicitly log 'no actionable signals this session' rather than implying the sell will eventually unlock without a prior buy.

Watcher trailing averages stale between wakes

BTC/ETH/SSV thresholds baked in at w18 (08:50 UTC). Over a 4-5h window trailing averages drift; a move in either direction shifts the dip threshold materially, causing the watcher to fire early or miss a real dip.

Call readPrice once at watcher init to re-anchor trailing averages, or recompute from a simple rolling snapshot stored in agent state.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

881 eroded to 0.43% — below 0.5% cancel threshold, mandatory pull to avoid free pick-off. No ETH repost: ETH below floor

13 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781096892; next poll 60s

LP-Maker-Matheus 13/28 deals (46% of Vulture's counterparties), now offline 919 min. Rebalance intents 762/763 posted at oracle-fair (w40) and oracle+0.5% concession (w42) — fair market terms, not signal failure. Zero fills in 20–40 min window due to LP offline, not edge quality.

rebalance intent 762/763 resolved (filled/expired/cancelled)

pre-expiry: 5 min before soonest intent expiry

new takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges on 30–60s adaptive cadence)

MISSING: explicit 'when LP-Maker comes back online' trigger (relies on pre-expiry + fallback, acceptable since LP will fill any live orders)

Primary market maker for rebalance swaps; 13/28 settled deals (46%) routed through LP. Rebalance terms (oracle-fair to +0.5%) are attractive

Also does DCA swaps (rebalance buys), but specialized for USDC→portfolio mix (not general swaps). Could technically fill Vulture's intents,

Posts LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA), not general swaps. No overlap with Vulture's USDC↔sAAPL/sNVDA rebalance intents.

Monitors rebalance intent resolution (critical for current portfolio floor crisis) — correct priority.

Adaptive cadence (30–60s scan-edges, not spammy), tightens under load — good token efficiency for a patient bot.

Pre-expiry trigger (5 min before soonest expiry) — smart intent lifecycle mgmt.

2h hard fallback — reasonable patience for waiting on LP recovery.

Fires on new edge ≥1% (core mission-aligned), but only if fresh (seenEdgeIds dedup) — avoids churn.

Uses Date.now() in setTimeout/loop context (skill docs say this can throw in script runtime; note as future risk even though it's running now).

No explicit signal for 'when LP-Maker recovers' (e.g., pinging LP's health endpoint) — relies on pre-expiry + fallback. Acceptable, since live orders auto-fill

armWatcher promise-drop uncaught (LP-Maker offline 919 min)

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 919 min ago (armed=false, pidAlive=false) due to core SDK armWatcher promise-drop bug. Vulture depends on LP for 46% of settled deals; rebalance intents 762/763 stuck unfilled due to LP absence, starving all swap-dependent agents (Step 1 notes 11/16 recent settled deals = 69

Core SDK: fix armWatcher promise-drop in wake-watch.js (handle uncaught promise rejections, restart agent loop cleanly).

Negative realized PnL (-$2.21 on 28 deals)

Vulture has lost $2.21 (−$0.08/deal avg). Given portfolio floor crisis (rebalance priority, baiting paused) and LP starvation preventing fills, some PnL loss is inevitable, but worth tracking. Not an immediate blocker, but watch for repeat if LP recovery delays further.

None now (PnL loss is market/constraint-driven, not signal failure). Monitor post-LP-recovery to confirm profitability resumes.

wallet-address frequency (11/14 agents addressed)

LP BACK, OPEN IMMINENT

~68 (dominant; LP-Maker hub for Vulture/Stacker/Swing/Arb-Hunter/0xBd6a)

~14 (Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba bilateral pair; 16/16 Mimic deals, 11/14 Bear deals)

~13 (Option-Writer lifetime; Option-Taker 0 fills ever)

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Vulture-Andrew (13/28 deals, 46%) + Stacker-Massimo + Swing-Nikita + Arb-Hunter-Tom + 0xBd6a

RESTORED — LP back with 10 active quotes; 8/16 most recent settled deals involve

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Vulture-Andrew / Swing-Nikita

OPEN — LP quoting all three synthetic equities; Swing sNVDA sell blocked by zero

Bear-Yosher ⇄ Mimic-Ljuba (exclusive bilateral)

ACTIVE but fragile — healthy pair; 100% single-counterparty concentration for bo

STRUCTURALLY FROZEN — LP minimum is 12 USDC; intents #777/#831/#887 (w20–w23) al

DRY — Option-Taker w12–w19 all return 0 audited Options; PUT #779 expired unfill

NEVER DEPLOYED — 6 consecutive cycles, wake_script_source=null both sides, 0 wak

armWatcher promise-drop (core SDK bug) swallowed LP-Maker's w44 fallback

LP-Maker offline 931 min — the fleet's primary liquidity hub (46% of Vulture's deals, fill-side for Stacker/Swing/Arb-Hu

LP last deal #64 at w42 (06-09T16:26Z); fallbackMs=3600000 set at w44 but orchestrator never received return; same bug fired simultaneous Bear-Yosher w29b+w30 duplicate bets at 06-10 04:09:00

LP-Maker now recovered with 10 active quotes

Fleet liquidity restored — Arb-Hunter fill rate jumped from 1.8% to ~9% (2 fills in ~22 post-recovery wakes: w128 +35bps

8/16 most recent settled deals involve LP-Maker; Vulture 3 recent LP deals; Stacker 2 LP deals; Swing 1 LP deal; Arb-Hunter 2/4 lifetime deals with LP post-recovery

Rebalancer-Lior posts 7 USDC BTC lots; LP minimum is 12 USDC

4 consecutive DCA failures — intents #777/#831/#887 expired; agent misdiagnoses blocker as oracle-price sensitivity ('LP

0xBd6a is the only demonstrated small-lot BTC taker (2/8 Rebalancer lifetime deals) but absent from current open book; no other sub-12-USDC BTC taker in fleet

Option-Writer is the sole option writer; Option-Taker is the sole audited-option scanner

Option market frozen end-to-end — two-agent pipeline with no redundancy; PUT #779 (posted 08:55, 60-min window) expired

Option-Taker templateHash (0xb3d66f4b) fixed and confirmed operational at w18/w19; Option-Writer 13 lifetime deals but 0 currently open option intents in book

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba exclusive bilateral lock-in

Binary market healthy now but single point of failure — if Bear goes offline (armed=true now, nextFallbackMin=136), Mimi

Mimic 16/16 settled deals with Bear-Yosher; Bear 11/14 BinaryBets with Mimic; zero other binary-bet agents deployed

Index-maker and Index-taker wake_script_source=null across 6 cycles

Index-basket market segment never existed — 0 wakes, 0 deals, $0 tokens; no index liquidity contributed to fleet

6 consecutive cycles: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null for both; dependency-chain theory refuted (maker and taker equally null)

armWatcher promise-drop: systemic core SDK bug

Confirmed root cause of LP-Maker's 931-min outage (fleet's largest liquidity hub) and Bear-Yosher's w29b/w30 duplicate bets. Any armed agent is at silent risk — fallback timer can swallow and never fire, leaving agent dead with armed=false and no observable error.

LP-Maker w44: fallbackMs=3600000 set at 06-09T17:19Z; fallback should have triggered ~18:19Z; orchestrator received no return; armed=false/pidAlive=false for 931 min. Bear w29b+w30 simultaneously fired on same intent-fill trigger at 06-10 0

Add explicit fallback-receipt confirmation in armWatcher; surface promise-drop as observable error log in orchestrator; audit all armed agents for silent expiry risk

Index-maker + Index-taker: never deployed across 6+ cycles

Both agents have wake_script_source=null, $0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes — identical null profile for 6 consecutive cycles. Entire index-basket market segment is offline. No self-recovery path exists.

6 cycles: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null for both index-maker and index-taker; no file timestamp, config delta, or partial boot artifact observed in any cycle.

Manual intervention required: deploy wake scripts for both agents, confirm watcher process starts, verify first wake executes and logs

Rebalancer-Lior: 7 USDC lot size structurally below LP's 12 USDC minimum

4 consecutive BTC DCA failures (intents #777, #831, #887 + current w23). Agent's self-diagnosis blames oracle price; actual constraint is LP lot-size floor. LP recovery does NOT fix this. 0xBd6a is the only demonstrated small-lot taker but inconsistently present.

LP-Maker minimum = 12 USDC confirmed; every Rebalancer BTC intent = 7 USDC (w20–w23); 0xBd6a filled 2/8 Rebalancer lifetime deals but absent from current open book.

Raise Rebalancer-Lior DCA lot to ≥12 USDC in CLAUDE.md, or onboard a reliable sub-12-USDC BTC taker (0xBd6a is the only candidate but unreliable)

Option ecosystem supply-demand timing disconnect

Option-Writer posts Options; Option-Taker is the only scanner — but taker finds 0 audited Options across w12–w19 even with templateHash fixed. PUT #779 expired unfilled in its 60-min window. Two-agent market with no visibility overlap confirmed.

Option-Taker templateHash fix confirmed operational at w19 (returned 'No audited Option intents found' cleanly); Option-Writer 0 currently open option intents; Option-Taker 0 lifetime deals.

Confirm Option-Writer's posted templateHash matches Option-Taker's filter (0xb3d66f4b); align posting window with taker's active scan period; extend option accept window beyond 60 min

Binary market: Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba single-counterparty concentration

Mimic has 16/16 lifetime deals with Bear exclusively. Bear has 11/14 BinaryBets with Mimic. Both agents' deal flows are entirely dependent on each other — no backup counterparty exists in the binary market.

Bear-Yosher 14 settled BinaryBets; Mimic-Ljuba 16 settled deals (100% Bear-Yosher); no other binary-bet agent deployed in fleet.

Onboard a second binary-bet maker or enable Polymarket-Ljuba to post binary bets as a secondary Mimic counterparty

LP-Maker fully recovered — fleet liquidity hub restored

10 active quotes live across BTC/ETH/sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL/SSV; 8/16 most recent settled deals involve LP. Arb-Hunter fill rate recovered 5× post-LP; Vulture's 919-min starvation ends; Stacker/Swing/Momentum buy-side cleared for 13:30 UTC open.

LP-Maker armed=true, nextFallbackMin=24; 3 recent Vulture↔LP deals, 2 Stacker↔LP, 1 Swing↔LP in recent settled list; Arb-Hunter fill rate 1.8%→~9% post-recovery.

Monitor LP's next wake (nextFallbackMin=24) — confirm armed state holds and armWatcher promise-drop does not recur before the fix is deployed

Fix armWatcher promise-drop: add fallback-receipt confirmation and observable error on swallowed return — prevents recurrence of 931-min LP outage and Bear-Yosher duplicate-bet incidents across all armed agents

Deploy index-maker and index-taker: 6 cycles of null state require manual intervention — get wake scripts in place and confirm first wakes execute

Raise Rebalancer-Lior DCA lot to ≥12 USDC: 4 consecutive failures caused by lot-size floor mismatch, not oracle price; agent self-diagnosis is wrong and will keep posting unfillable intents

Audit Option-Writer/Option-Taker templateHash match and accept-window overlap: two-agent option pipeline has 0 lifetime fills; confirm taker's 0xb3d66f4b filter matches what writer actually posts

Better vs last run: LP-Maker-Matheus confirmed fully recovered (was offline 931 min last cycle, now has 10 active quotes + recent deals as counterparty in 8 of the 16 most recent settled deals); major structural blocker resolved. Degraded: Rebalancer-Lior 7 USDC open intent (12m left) remains below

LP-Maker fully back: 10 open quotes across BTC/ETH/sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL/SSV — does this unblock Swing, Vulture, Option-Writer, Arb-Hunter?

US market open at ~13:30 UTC today (<40 min away): Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo all armed for this trigger — fleet-wide activity spike expected

Rebalancer-Lior 7 USDC BTC intent (12m left, ID in book): LP minimum is 12 USDC — structurally unfillable by LP; only 0xBd6a demonstrated at this lot size (2 of 8 total deals)

Option-Taker-Matheus: 0 lifetime deals despite templateHash fix at w18, last wake 27 min ago — has the fix actually produced an auditable option path yet?

Index-maker + Index-taker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0 tokens, 0 wakes — 5+ cycles, confirmed structural deployment failure

Vulture-Andrew burn rate $33.34/5h with 32 deals — with LP now quoting tighter spreads, is Vulture's edge compressing?

LP-Maker now has 11 active quotes (BTC, ETH, sMSFT, sNVDA, sAAPL, SSV) repriced against the oracle — has arb-hunter's CEX feed shown any exploitable spread vs these new LP quotes since LP came back, and is the 1 Vulture-Andrew deal in recen

Option-Writer-Matheus ↔ Bear-Yosher swap appears in recent settled deals — was this the long-awaited Option take (bear as buyer), and did bear's 'exactly-one-resting-bet' invariant hold through this settlement; any new BinaryBet posted sinc

Still armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0, 0 wakes — is there any new signal in the data (file timestamp, config, external trigger) distinguishing deliberate hold from deployment failure, or is this confirmed stuck and requiring manual deploy?

Still armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0, 0 wakes — symmetric with index-maker; confirm no change and whether the dependency argument (waits for maker) is still the working theory or now refuted by maker's continued non-deployment?

Prior summary said 'offline 931 min' but current data shows 10 open intents + 8 of last 16 deals involved LP — confirm full recovery timestamp and assess: are the 10 active quotes (BTC at 0.00024552, ETH at 0.008662, etc.) priced at tight s

Bear-Yosher last woke 92 min ago (nextFallbackMin=153, so no wake yet) with an Option-Writer deal now settled — has Mimic seen and evaluated any new BinaryBets posted by Bear since deal #84 at w45, and does the Option-Writer ↔ Bear settleme

nextFallbackMin=336 (~5.6h fallback) but US market open at ~13:30 UTC is ~39 min away — does momentum's watcher have a time-based market-open trigger that will fire before the fallback, or will it miss the open and sit idle for 5+ more hour

0 lifetime deals despite templateHash fix at w18 and last wake 27 min ago — has the fixed wake script actually queried the book for auditable Option intents post-fix, and are there any Option-Writer-Matheus intents currently open or recentl

Option-Writer-Matheus ↔ Bear-Yosher swap settled in recent deals — does this confirm Bear took an option (resolving the 'Option-Taker 0 deals' concern for that specific put), and separately: is the sMSFT rotation still stuck at 4 failed swa

nextFallbackMin=1871 (~31 hours) — is this watcher sleeping until tomorrow's market close window, and given LP is now live with 10 active quotes repricing sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL, does polymarket-ljuba's 'no misprice' signal still hold or should

Open intent gives 7 USDC → 0.0001147 BTC (12m left in book) — LP-Maker minimum is 12 USDC, making this structurally unfillable by LP; has 0xBd6a (sole demonstrated small-lot taker, 2 of 8 deals) shown any activity in the book recently, and

nextFallbackMin=43 consistent with ~13:30 UTC US market open fire (~39 min away) — confirm countdown alignment, and check: has stacker made any DCA purchases since prior summary (portfolio was 0.004928 sNVDA + 9.00 USDC free), or is it stil

LP-Maker now fully back with 10+ quotes (was offline when Swing's sNVDA sell was blocked) and US market open ~39 min away — does the sNVDA sell signal from the prior cycle still hold at current oracle prices, and is swing's watcher set to f

32 deals + $33.34/5h burn but LP is now back quoting oracle-tight spreads — is Vulture's edge compressing (fewer mispriced intents to pick off), and are the 8 recent deals vs LP and 0xBd6a still genuine misprice captures or is Vulture now t

Investigate and fix armWatcher promise-drop bug — LP-Maker suffered 931-min outage from a swallowed fallback promise; same bug can affect any watcher and is the highest single-point-of-failure risk in

rebalancer-lior: Increase BTC DCA lot size from 7 USDC to ≥12 USDC (LP minimum) — current 7 USDC is structurally unfillable by LP, leaving 0xBd6a as sole counterparty; 3+ consecutive expirations confi

Deploy index-maker and index-taker — 5+ consecutive null cycles with $0 tokens and 0 wakes; IndexBasket market is completely dark and no self-healing path exists without manual deployment.

option-taker-matheus: Confirm post-fix (w18 templateHash correction) that the wake script is actually scanning for and auditing live Option-Writer intents — 0 lifetime deals is an urgent diagnostic ga

Market open at ~13:30 UTC (<40 min): monitor Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita, and Stacker-Massimo for coordinated wake — LP is ready to fill; this is the first market open with LP live.