Arb-Hunter-Tom

bestTake=null both surfaces: BTC reversed below strike, no other actionable binary; swap intents unfundable.

new intent >#743, binary bet in 30-min window + CEX decided, or 30-min fallback

Summary: Agent is ARMED with 28-min fallback—not disarmed as prior Step-1 context suggested (question appears stale). Reasoning remains disciplined: wakes w90–w97 show clean scans and gate-failures, not reasoning loops. Zero fills continue because LP-Maker offline 620m compressed oracle lag → thin book with sub-0.5% margins on all candidates. Portfolio $99.90 (+$0.19

Agent logic is sound and tightly gatekept (0.5% margin, 30-min window, taker-in-money CEX price). The zero-fill streak is *not* reasoning churn—it's structural: LP-Maker offline 620m has compressed the on-chain/CEX mismatch the agent hunts. Agent correctly scans and waits; the event that unlocks fills is LP-Maker recovery or new makers posting takeable bets/swaps.

LP-Maker offline 620m per Step 1; on-chain book thin (w90–w97 show no binary bets clearing 0.5% taker margin). Only 1 settled deal lifetime (swap w/ Vulture-Andrew, $0.41 last wake). Bet #734 watched patiently (needs +$296 BTC rally in 20m) — correctly gated, not a miss.

Sound. Wakes w90–w97 log explicit checks: margin %, strike vs CEX price, time to expiry, taker-in-money condition. Gates (0.5% margin, taker-in-money, <30-min expiry) align with latency arb mission. No re-derivation churn—each wake scans fresh book, logs why action skipped (e.g., 'taker OTM 3.25%', 'no unfundable swaps'). Disciplined waiting, not broken logic.

Binary bet in 30-min window with taker in-money + CEX margin ≥0.5%

30-min fallback (patient cadence for latency arb)

Primary maker of on-chain swaps (oracle mid) and binary bets; would feed takeable intents if online.

offline 620m (armWatcher promise-drop bu

1 swap settled (taker-to-taker crossing is rare; both hunt the same edges). Low-probability counterparty.

active (28 deals, 79%-LP-dependent per S

Market-open waker; if it posts swaps or bets, agent can take. But Momentum is also a taker (hunt movers), not maker.

armed, awaiting market open (Step 1 warn

None. Agent scanned intents w90–w97 and found no bets clearing 0.5% margin gate. Book is thin (LP-Maker offline); nothing to miss. Event unlocking fills: LP-Maker recovery or market-open wakes posting takeable intents.

Triggers on new high-ID intents and periodic full book scans with fresh CEX price fetches (Coinbase, Binance)

Gates on taker-in-money + CEX margin ≥0.5% directly align with latency arb mission

Expiry window 30–1800 sec (1–30 min) matches stated take window

30-min fallback is patient, not sub-minute polling; appropriate for CEX/oracle latency game

Baseline tracking on first poll avoids re-firing already-seen intents

SSV price fetch (fetchCex case) is dead code: fetched but never used to trigger (no SSV oracle address in ORACLE_SYMBOL). Agent logic unaffected; script cleanup

Remove SSV fetch from watcher (dead code in fetchCex). If SSV swaps/bets should be included in mission, first add SSV oracle addresses to ORACLE_SYMBOL and implement SSV binary-bet check.

Dead code: SSV fetch never used

fetchCex('SSV') fetches Binance SSVUSDT price, but SSV oracle address is not in ORACLE_SYMBOL map, so no binary-bet trigger can reference it. Script logic is sound; this is unused code.

Delete SSV case from fetchCex (lines ~26–30 approx) or, if SSV swaps/bets are in-mission, add SSV oracle address to ORACLE_SYMBOL and implement the check.

LP-Maker offline 620m blocks primary taker counterparty

LP-Maker is the on-chain swap and binary bet maker. Offline 620m (armWatcher bug per Step 1) → sparse book, compressed oracle lag, no high-margin latency-arb opportunities. Agent waiting correctly; platform bottleneck. Vulture fallback carries 28 deals at 79%-LP-dependent capacity (Step 1 warns mark

Investigate and fix LP-Maker's armWatcher promise-drop bug; restore on-chain liquidity. Unblocks 60+ agents and restores arb-hunter's primary feed.

Bear-Yosher

Mission rule: exactly one resting bear bet. Wake 29b and wake 30 both ran simultaneously (triggered by same intent-fill

intent 743 fill/expiry OR deal 74 betExpiry OR ETH >$1,653.58 OR new aligned binary >= 1.5% OR 6h

Not a counterparty or market issue. Mimic-Ljuba fills 100% of recent posts (intents 729, 730, 731, 733 → deals 78, 79, 80, 81 all same counterparty in 40 min). Root is SDK snapshot.myOpenIntents=[] returning []; agent can't verify its own posted intents and relies on fragile wallet-USDC delta, creat

Intent 735 resolution (this agent's posted intent fill/expiry/cancel)

Deal 74 betExpiry (BTC BELOW settle epoch 1781086608, ~10:17 UTC 06-10)

ETH price >$1,651.97 (adverse move, halt threshold)

New aligned BinaryBet on book ≥1.5% margin (crypto-down BELOW / tech ABOVE)

8 of 11 settled deals (73%), 100% fill rate on recent intents (729–733 all taken, deals 78–81); directional copy-trader mirror-strategy alig

Picks mispriced swaps and binaries, but bear-yosher's intents fill instantly at fair oracle pricing — limited mispricing signal for Vulture.

ok health, fallback counterparty (28 lif

Values binaries vs Polymarket implied vol; could spot mispriced binaries, but 0 deals with bear-yosher to date (2 lifetime deals, low volume

ok health, but not on bear-yosher's coun

Intent 735 and Deal 74 betExpiry triggers are specific to agent's own posted intent and open bet — actionable, not polling noise.

ETH adverse-move threshold ($1,651.97 = $1,627.56 baseline +1.5%) is mission-critical halt condition (crypto up → stop shorting).

Aligned binary scan (BELOW crypto >1.5% margin, ABOVE tech >1.5% margin) matches two-conviction strategy.

8h fallback is patient (taker-first doesn't need sub-minute poll), zero-LLM, reads market only as needed.

No dependency on broken snapshot — watcher queries prices and open intents directly (doesn't rely on myOpenIntents).

Watcher has no way to verify whether its own *posted* intent is still open, filled, or expired (snapshot.myOpenIntents=[] bug) — can't check before posting agai

No debounce or atomic post-and-record: if two wakes fire within intent-posting window (w25b at 03:07:XX and w26 at 03:07:YY both posted), creates duplicate-post

snapshot.myOpenIntents=[] returns empty; third incident

readOpenIntents does not filter by caller's address, or filtering is broken. bear-yosher detects this on w28 and workarounds via wallet-USDC state.json delta, but that's fragile across concurrent wakes. w25b and w26 both fired within 1s, both saw 'no resting intent' (because snapshot was empty), bot

SDK readOpenIntents: add address filter or create readMyIntents(). Interim: agent should atomic-post-and-record to local state (prevents duplicate-post race).

Back-to-back wake fires (w25b + w26, 1s apart) both posted independently

w25b fired at 03:07:XX, evaluated 'no resting intent' (snapshot empty), posted Intent 731. w26 fired at 03:07:YY (1s later), also saw snapshot=[], also posted Intent 731 (or separate ID, same semantics). Both filled as deal 80. Concentration spiked 28→32 locked.

Add debounce: if lastPostTs + 60s not elapsed, skip posting. Or use atomic post-and-record (see wake-script suggestion).

Concentration rising; verify mission maximum

Now 32 locked / 95.64 portfolio = 33.4% (8 deals × 4.18%). Mission says 'never hold spot crypto' but does not document max bet concentration. Previous run showed 29.3%, now 33.4% — trending upward. If mission max is <33%, agent will breach soon.

Document mission max concentration limit. If <33%, add check to wake-script: if concentration >= max_pct, skip posting. (Agent already has concentration calculation in wakes; just needs threshold.)

Index-Maker

Summary: Index-Maker remains undeployed — never woken (0 wakes, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null). This is a bootstrap initialization failure, persistent since last run, distinct from LP-Maker's runtime armWatcher crash. Its sole counterparty Index-Taker is also undeployed (0 wakes, armed=false) — mutual blocker. Root cause: missing/incomp

Index-Maker never deployed (0 wakes, watcher.armed=false, wake_script_source=null). This is a setup/config failure, not a runtime crash. Blocks Index-Taker (also undeployed, 0 wakes). No IndexBasket intents on-chain; market frozen for this pair.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever. Initialization never completed — distinct from LP-Maker's post-wake armWatcher promise-drop crash. Last run noted 'missing/incomplete CLAUDE.md setup' as likely cause.

Cannot assess — the agent never woke, so no trades or wake-script logic executed. The failure is upstream: the watcher/runner failed to initialize the agent at all.

MISSING: watcher never armed (armed=false, pidAlive=false). Wake script never loaded (source=null).

Index-Taker is also undeployed (0 wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=false). Mutual blocker — cannot settle IndexBasket swaps if publisher is offl

Unmeasurable — agent never woke, so no order book visibility or intent events to assess.

Wake script source is null — script never loaded. This is downstream of the watcher initialization failure, not a script design issue.

Not applicable until watcher is armed and script is loaded. Diagnosis must happen first: check CLAUDE.md for missing watcher config, or platform runner logs for initialization failure.

Missing or incomplete watcher configuration in CLAUDE.md

Index-Maker's watcher never armed (armed=false, pidAlive=false). Wake script source is null, indicating initialization never completed. Last run flagged 'missing/incomplete CLAUDE.md setup' as likely cause.

Read Index-Maker's CLAUDE.md and compare against a known-working agent (e.g., rebalancer-lior, which deployed and woke). Verify watcher config, script path, and any env-var dependencies are present and correct.

Possible shared platform/config blocker for Index pair

Both Index-Maker and Index-Taker are undeployed (0 wakes, armed=false). This is either independent config issues for each agent or a shared blocker (e.g., indexer contract not deployed, shared env var missing, mutual dependency unsatisfied).

If both agents have identical or similar CLAUDE.md watcher configs but still fail to arm, check: (1) platform runner logs for common initialization errors, (2) indexer contract deployment status, (3) shared environment variables (SDK version, RPC endpoint, etc.).

Index market frozen — no intents on-chain

Zero IndexBasket intents posted on-chain (0 wakes, 0 open intents). This is a market initialization failure, not a trading failure — the publisher never started.

Deploy Index-Maker first (blocks Index-Taker). Once Index-Maker publishes a LONG IndexBasket, Index-Taker can begin auditing and taking the SHORT side.

Index-Maker never deployed (0 wakes, watcher.armed=false, wake_script_source=null). This is a setup/config failure, not a runtime crash. Blocks Index-Taker (also undeployed, 0 wakes). No IndexBasket intents on-chain; market frozen for this pair.

Index-Taker

Summary: Unchanged from last run: 0 wakes, armed=false, wake_script_source=null. Blocked by **core armWatcher promise-drop bug** (same blocker as Index-Maker, its sole counterparty, and LP-Maker offline 620m). No IndexBasket intents exist on-chain to take. Agent logic is sound; fix is platform-level.

Index-Taker undeployed (0 wakes) due to armWatcher promise-drop blocking wake_script_source load and armed flag. Index-Maker (sole counterparty) also undeployed via same bug — mutual bootstrap failure. Zero IndexBasket intents on-chain. Agent design (fetch→audit→fail-closed) is sound; platform is the blocker.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null (never deployed). Index-Maker (sole counterparty) also undeployed (0 wakes). 0 IndexBasket intents on-chain. Root: armWatcher promise-drop (same bug blocking LP-Maker 620m offline, Arb-Hunter-Tom post-w93, others).

Cannot assess — wake_script_source=null. Prior summary notes agent design is sound (fetch→audit→fail-closed). Problem is not logic; problem is deployment failure at platform level.

MISSING: wake_script_source null — unable to assess what should fire it. Likely intended: periodic timer OR Index-Maker intent posted event.

Sole counterparty — Index-Maker publishes LONG IndexBasket intents; Index-Taker takes SHORT. 1:1 dependency.

UNDEPLOYED (0 wakes, armed=false, same a

None — 0 IndexBasket intents exist on-chain. Measurement is clean (indexer is the source, not book visibility).

wake_script_source is null — no code deployed. Cannot assess watcher fitness.

This is a platform fix, not an agent change. Once armWatcher promise-drop is fixed, wake_script_source should load and armed=true trigger. If not, debug Index-Taker's deploy path separately.

armWatcher promise-drop blocks Index-Taker deployment

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false. Agent never deployed (0 wakes). Same bug blocks Index-Maker (counterparty, also 0 wakes) and LP-Maker (offline 620m). Platform bootstrap is the load-bearing blocker.

Debug armWatcher promise-chain: ensure wake_script_source loads, armed flag sets true on successful deploy. Priority: blocking both Index agents + LP-Maker (620m downtime).

LP-Maker-Matheus

Summary: OFFLINE 681 min and worsening (since w44 06-09T17:19 UTC) — armWatcher promise-drop bug prevents watcher initialization (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Zero new wakes or deal activity since crash; all 64 settled deals pre-outage. Prior summary recorded 620 min outage; now 681 min, duration stretching. Was fleet's primary liquidity hub (8

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher down 681 minutes due to core SDK armWatcher promise-drop bug. Zero new deal activity; blocks 60+ agents from settling. Vulture-Andrew fallback at 79%-LP-dependent saturation capacity, threatened by market-open wakes in next 2 hours. No recovery ETA or fix confirmation visible.

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop: watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null since w44 06-09T17:19 UTC. All 64 settled deals pre-outage; zero post-crash activity. Last wake 681 minutes ago; no fallback fired.

Agent's wake-script is well-reasoned for its mission (monitors quote expiry ~45m, oracle breach ±15–50 bps, new fillable swaps; includes 60-min fallback). Reasoning is sound. Problem is not the agent's logic but SDK platform failure: armWatcher promise chain fails to initialize watcher or record fallback, leaving the agent permanently deaf.

New fillable intent matching HOLD portfolio

MISSING: watcher never fires (armWatcher promise-drop prevents watcher initialization entirely)

Settled 9/64 deals pre-outage (most reliable counterparty). Now sole flow-handler at 79%-LP-dependent, capacity threatened.

Settled 3/64 deals pre-outage. DCA mission needs steady liquidity provider. Armed, market-open wake imminent.

Settled 3/64 deals pre-outage. Dislocation fade mission depends on liquid mid. Armed, market-open wake imminent.

Settled 2/64 deals pre-outage. Needs cheap USDC→sNVDA swaps. Armed, market-open wake imminent.

Unmeasurable — watcher offline prevents observing on-chain book. Intents posted post-crash unknown. Agent cannot take any swaps until watcher is restored.

Quote expiry watch (~45 min) — essential for two-sided depth mission

Oracle breach monitoring (±15–50 bps) — triggers rehedging when mid moves

Fillable-intent detection (HOLD set) — responsive to flow without churn

60-minute fallback — ensures eventual wake even if no trigger fires

SDK bug (armWatcher promise-drop) prevents watcher initialization — not an agent code issue

No change to agent code — root fix is in core SDK. Once armWatcher promise-chain is fixed and watcher can arm, LP-Maker's logic is sound. Verify watcher arms and fallback logs post-fix.

armWatcher promise-drop bug blocks LP-Maker wakes entirely

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null since w44 06-09T17:19 UTC (681 minutes ago). armWatcher promise chain fails before resolving — watcher never initializes, armed state never set, fallback never recorded. Blocks fleet's primary liquidity hub (was 82% of pre-ou

Debug armWatcher promise-chain in core SDK wake-watch.js. Ensure fireWake → armWatcher resolves properly and sets armed=true and nextFallbackMin. Add retry logic or explicit error logging if promise fails. Restore LP-Maker watcher, verify armed state, run market-open test. Critical for fleet liquidi

Mimic-Ljuba

No ≥3pp edge opportunity without concentration risk; prior-wake action still open (deals unresolved). One move per wake

stock market opens OR new ≥3pp taker-edge binary OR 90min fallback

Summary: Locking workaround proved functional: deals #81 and #83 locked successfully post-failure, ending the 5-consecutive-rejection loop. Intent #734 (BTC below $61.5k) posted w36 but remains untaken — counterparty Bear-Yosher (10 of 12 settled deals) not biting. Current watcher arms on intent #743 expiry (06:08 UTC, ~67min fallback), but 90-min post-expiry window

Mimic proved acceptance works (deals #81, #83 locked; locking bug resolved) and calculates edges precisely (+30pp). But intent #734 untaken since posting (w36 → w42, 6+ hours), implying Bear-Yosher's edge threshold no longer aligns. Mimic is underwater ($−0.74 PnL on 12 deals, −0.92% return), suggesting copied bets lose to primary counterparty timing. Wake script: fires once on intent expiry, then silent 90min — too coarse for copy-trader cadence.

Intent #734 posted 06-10T04:17 (w36), zero takes through w42 (06:00). Bear-Yosher (primary counterparty, 10/12 deals) active (13 deals, health ok) but not taking. Suggests edge/strike no longer competitive vs Bear-Yosher's bar.

Sound. Edges calculated precisely (40% win prob → +30pp; cost-implied 1.8x floor). One-move-per-wake rule enforced even when <3pp (w40–w42 correctly skipped). Not re-deriving; problem-solving on-mission. Caveat: -$0.74 cumulative PnL suggests copy timing or counterparty drift may be eating wins, not tool/logic failure.

Intent #743 expiry window (06:08 UTC, fire 2min early)

MISSING: BinaryBet post events (book flow) — copy-trader should wake when fresh opportunities arrive, not wait for scheduled settle windows

10 of 12 settled deals; crypto-down directional posts align with Mimic copy strategy. Most reliable pair.

1 settled deal; both hunt value but sparse overlap.

Unmeasurable unless Mimic sees full book. w40–w42 skips are correct if edge floor unmet across all visible bets. If Mimic is blind to some BinaryBets, gap is unknowable.

Time-based trigger precise to 2min (intent #743 expiry margin)

90-min fallback prevents permanent sleep if intent lingers

Zero-LLM, deterministic, no book dependency

Single-intent watcher; once #743 settles, agent inert until 07:38 fallback (if fired at 06:08, 90-min gap)

Copy-trader mission requires hunting fresh BinaryBets every wake cycle; 90-min window is 3–6× too slow

No book-flow trigger; relies on lucky fallback timing to catch new posts from Bear-Yosher

Replace intent-expiry watcher with BinaryBet post event listener (fire on new bet to book for Mimic's address) + 15–20 min deterministic fallback. Mimic's strategy depends on fast copy reflexes; one-off intent watchers are architectural mis

Wake script: 90-min fallback too slow for copy-trader; one-off intent design loses continuity

Current watcher fires on intent #743 expiry (~06:08), then goes dark until 07:38 fallback. Between expiry and fallback, agent cannot wake to copy fresh BinaryBets. Copy-trader needs 10–30min cadence, not one-event-per-90min.

Rewrite watcher: trigger on BinaryBet post events to book (Mimic's address) + 15–20min deterministic fallback. Remove single-intent expiry logic; that's for binary-outcome agents, not copiers hunting ongoing flow.

Intent #734 untaken 6+ hours; counterparty threshold drift or mispriced

Posted w36 (06-10T04:17), no takes through w42 (06:00). Bear-Yosher active (13 deals) but not biting. Either edge is below Bear-Yosher's floor, or direction no longer aligns (market moved, Bear-Yosher strategy shifted).

Analyze Bear-Yosher's recent post distribution (if visible in SDK) to infer edge threshold. If #734 is <threshold, abandon and focus on taking Bear-Yosher's posts instead (reactive, not proactive). If intent has lingerred >8h, expire and stop capital bleeding.

Negative cumulative PnL (−$0.74, −0.92% return) despite +30pp edges; timing or counterparty drift

12 settled deals, underwater. Suggests either: (a) copy timing buys high/sells low vs BTC/ETH moves, (b) Bear-Yosher (primary counterparty) consistently beats Mimic's direction, or (c) edge calculations don't survive slippage/execution.

Sample 3–5 recent deals (e.g. #79–#83) and backtest edge calculation vs actual settlement prices and realized move. Identify if loss is timing (copy lag) vs pricing (wrong edge math) vs counterparty drift (Bear-Yosher trading opposite direction).

Momentum-Nikita

SSV leads on both fast (3.58pp gap) and slow (2.06pp gap) lookbacks — decisive signal clearing the 2pp edge threshold. B

intent #741 resolves or price >3% move (4h fallback)

Summary: Progressed from market-open timer to posting Intent #741 ($51.25 USDC → 25 SSV) at w9 after decisive signal (3.58pp fast, 2.06pp slow, >2pp threshold). Watcher now monitors intent resolution or >3% price moves or 4h fallback. Critically: LP-Maker offline 620m blocks counterparty (Vulture-Andrew at capacity with 28 deals). Intent likely unfilled; counterparty

Momentum-Nikita correctly posted Intent #741 after signal cleared 2pp edge threshold, but intent faces acute counterparty risk: Vulture-Andrew (primary fallback) at capacity (28 deals, 79%-LP-dependent), and LP-Maker offline 620m blocks natural swap counterparty. No agent fault; fleet constraint.

Intent #741 ($51.25 USDC → 25 SSV) posted w9 06-10T03:46; Vulture-Andrew at 28 settled deals + 2 open intents, LP-dependent flow; LP-Maker offline 620m blocks swap counterparty; no other SSV supplier in roster.

Sound. Agent correctly idled w2-w8 on weak signals (all <2pp edge), avoids churn, posts on decisive signal (w9: 3.58pp fast + 2.06pp slow → clears 2pp threshold). Solving right problem: hunt strong movers, concentrate via delivered swaps.

Intent #741 resolves (filled or expired)

BTC/ETH/SSV >3% move (thesis invalidated)

4h fallback (193 min from w9, ~07:46 UTC)

Only roster agent flexible enough to pick off SSV mispriced vs USDC, but at saturation (28 deals) and LP-dependent (79% of flow from offline

Natural swap counterparty (market maker fills swaps near oracle mid), but offline 620m

Mission is USDC → sNVDA, not SSV; wrong direction

None — agent waited for signal and posted on threshold clear. Intent outcome depends on counterparty availability (fleet issue, not agent issue).

Fires on intent resolution (knows its own action outcome immediately)

Monitors >3% moves in BTC/ETH/SSV (exits if momentum thesis invalidated)

4h fallback ensures reassessment even if price quiet (patient, not noisy)

No early wake if intent becomes unfillable (e.g., Vulture-Andrew posts elsewhere), but difficult to detect without book visibility

No change needed. Watcher is well-fitted to mission. If intent remains unfilled past 1h, could add a wake to repost/cancel, but defer to agent's design choice between flexibility and simplicity.

LP-Maker offline 620m blocks primary swap counterparty

Intent #741 faces counterparty-starved risk; LP-Maker offline since 620m is the natural liquidity provider for swaps. Vulture-Andrew fallback at capacity (28 deals, 79%-LP-dependent). No recovery ETA.

Recover LP-Maker (platform root cause: armWatcher promise-drop blocking 60+ agents including Momentum-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, and swap-dependent agents). This is the load-bearing fix for intent settlement.

Market-open burst wakes stress Vulture-Andrew fallback capacity

Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita all armed for market-open wake (~13:30 UTC). Vulture-Andrew carrying 28 settled deals at capacity; burst may exceed throughput.

Coordinate market-open wake stagger or add second fallback hub. Or defer non-critical wakes until LP-Maker recovery stabilizes Vulture-Andrew.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: Correctly idle and well-reasoned. Sole counterparty (Option-Writer-Matheus) remains offline 603m via core armWatcher promise-drop bug, so zero audited Option intents exist in the market. All 13 wakes (06-09 13:19 – 06-10 09:51, now 422m ago) found no supply. Watcher is armed, fallback-firing every ~2h as designed. Ready to take immediately when writer revive

Agent is healthy and doing exactly the right thing — staying idle with a 2h fallback until its sole counterparty comes back online. Zero missed deals because zero audited Option intents exist. When Option-Writer revives (pending core fix), this agent will fire on the first new intent.

Option-Writer-Matheus offline 603m; 0 audited Option intents (templateHash 0xcd5689c76d56d3133c5b631145692a2c9035002dd8a745b80a738d736070daf6) on-chain; all 13 wakes 06-09 13:19 – 06-10 09:51 report 'No audited Option intents found'

Sound. Not solving the wrong problem — the market literally has no supply. Mission requires audited Options; sole producer is down; nothing actionable exists. 11 of 13 wakes are fallback repeats (expected when market hasn't changed). Zero churn.

new audited Option intent appears
2h fallback (120m)
MISSING: none — well-fit to mission

Sole producer of audited Options matching this agent's template

None — no audited Option intents exist in market

Arms on new audited Option intents — exactly the actionable event for this mission

2h fallback prevents indefinite sleep if market resumes

Tracks `seen` Set to detect only new arrivals (no repeat-fire on stale intents)

None — watcher is fit-to-mission. Blocker is the core bug disabling Option-Writer; fix core/SDK, not this agent.

armWatcher promise-drop bug blocks Option-Writer and cascades to Option-Taker

Option-Writer offline 603m with no recovery ETA. Starves Option-Taker market (and likely other Option-dependent agents). No supply = no deals possible.

Debug/fix core armWatcher promise-drop in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js; redeploy Option-Writer.

Agent is healthy and doing exactly the right thing — staying idle with a 2h fallback until its sole counterparty comes back online. Zero missed deals because zero audited Option intents exist. When Option-Writer revives (pending core fix), this agent will fire on the first new intent.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Summary: Offline 665m via armWatcher SDK promise-drop (same root as LP-Maker 620m down). Before crash: rotation attempt at market open (w23) posted swaps 530/533 (sNVDA buy, sAAPL buy) at oracle mid; intent 528 (sMSFT sell) filled ✓, but 530/533 expired unfilled in ~50m (LP-Maker offline likely culprit). Option-writing engine paused after 6 consecutive rejections acr

Down 665m, not waiting (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback). Swaps 530/533 dead at oracle mid (50m window, LP offline). Options starved 665m (6 rejections → no taker activity). Recovery: (1) core: fix armWatcher promise chain, (2) agent: generalize wake script from hardcoded 2026-06-09, (3) diagnose option-taker relationship — either taker disinterested or writer's strikes/terms mismatched.

Options: 6 consecutive rejections (intents 272, 0x11d across premium, ATM, short, long strategies — all expired unfilled). Swaps 530/533: posted at oracle mid 16:48 UTC, expired ~17:38 UTC (50m window, fair pricing, failed to fill). Intent 528 filled ✓ confirms non-zero market depth elsewhere. Concl

Sound triage (paused engine 1 after repeated rejections, held position, awaited market-close rotation). But incomplete diagnosis: agent moved from premium → ATM when first failed, showing price sensitivity, yet still 0/6 fills. This is not mispricing — it's **no taker showing up**. Engine 2 failure (530/533 expired) is clear (LP offline, Vulture/Rebalancer didn't cross). Agent couldn't pivot while

Time-based: 19:50 UTC market close (w26 target; never fired, armWatcher promise-drop)

Fallback: 23:00 UTC (blocked by same armWatcher bug)

MISSING: option engine cadence (engine 1 posts, then sleeps until expiry; no trigger to listen for taker arrival or repost after rejection)

MISSING: generalizable market-open for rotation (w22 shows hardcoded 13:30 UTC reschedule, not parametrized for next market day)

Primary DEX-depth provider for swaps; custom option counterparty.

Mission: buy cash-settled options. Natural counterparty for writer's ETH/BTC calls.

ALIVE (2 settled deals, ok health) but I

Takes mispriced swaps; could have scavenged 530/533 if repriced below mid. Not mission to provide DCA depth.

ALIVE (28 deals, very active) but did no

Also DCA via swaps; could cross rotation. Not primary counterparty.

ALIVE (8 deals, ok health) but silent on

Unmeasurable while offline. Before crash: swaps 530/533 at oracle mid (fair) in 50m window — neither Vulture nor Rebalancer took them despite being awake. Options: 6 attempted posts, all expired unfilled; option-taker-matheus alive but never showed demand. Root unclear: writer may not be pricing options to taker's acceptable loss/vega profile, or taker not active on ETH/BTC calls specifically. Req

Time-based trigger (19:50 UTC) aligns with goal: market-close finalization before rotation locks in

Fallback (23:00 UTC) provides backstop if primary delayed

No order-book polling (correct for non-responder)

30-second loop interval is patient (no sub-minute thrash)

Hardcoded date (2026-06-09T19:50:00Z) — one-time script. 2026-06-10 market close requires manual edit or will never fire

Engine 1 (option-writing, 30% mission) zero dedicated trigger. Posts then idles until expiry — no cadence to repost or listen for taker demand shift

Engine 2 (rotation, 70% mission) market-open is hardcoded 13:30 UTC reschedule in w22 logic, not parametrized. Next market will miss unless script updated

Entire script hangs on armWatcher() promise-drop bug — process never arms, loop never starts

**Highest-value fix:** Parametrize market-close trigger from hardcoded `new Date('2026-06-09T19:50:00Z')` to `nextMarketClose(now())` (returns next 19:50 UTC ≥ current time). This unblocks the script from single-date fragility. **Secondary:

armWatcher promise-drop blocks all time-based wakers

Promise from armWatcher() never resolves; process never arms; wake loop blocked at startup. Affects option-writer-matheus (665m offline), LP-Maker-Matheus (620m), and any agent with time-based wake. Root: likely promise not chained or fallbackMs deadline calculation error.

Debug armWatcher() in core SDK (wake-watch.js). Verify promise resolves on primary deadline OR fallbackMs expiry. Add timeout backstop if promise hangs beyond fallback window.

Wake script hardcoded for single market-close date

`targetWakeUtc = new Date('2026-06-09T19:50:00Z')` is static. Next market close (2026-06-10 19:50 UTC) will not trigger — script will compare now() (already past 2026-06-09T19:50) and sleep forever unless edited.

Replace hardcoded ISO string with parametrized logic: `const targetWakeUtc = nextMarketClose(now())` where nextMarketClose() computes next 19:50 UTC ≥ now(), advancing one day if needed. Reuse across market days.

Option-writing engine (30% of mission) starved 665m, no active cadence

Engine 1 posted 6 options (intents 272, 0x11d, others) across premium/ATM/term; all expired unfilled. Paused in w21 after detecting rejection pattern. No trigger to repost or sense taker arrival. option-taker-matheus (natural counterparty) alive but silent — suggests either: (a) taker terms/sizing d

Investigate option-taker's recent intents and sizing. If taker is alive but inactive, coordinate on (strike, term, premium) parameters. Then add option engine sub-watcher: cadence-based repost (every 4h or on taker demand) to sense when taker is ready. Alternatively, if taker is not a reliable partn

Rotation swaps 530/533 failed at oracle mid due to LP offline

Swaps posted 16:48 UTC (intent 530 sNVDA buy, intent 533 sAAPL buy) at oracle mid, expired ~17:38 UTC (50m window). Only intent 528 (sMSFT sale) filled. Primary counterparty LP-Maker-Matheus offline 620m. Secondary candidates Vulture-Andrew and Rebalancer-Lior did not cross. Sizes: 0.0823 sNVDA (17.

Once LP-Maker back online, validate swap slice sizes against LP's observed depth and latency. If sizes too small for LP to spot in live order book, increase to 50+ USDC per slice to trigger LP quote. Coordinate with LP's rebalancing wake cadence to avoid posting during LP's own rebalance window.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: Correctly monitoring-and-waiting with no change since last summary. sAAPL position holds at 25% equity cap ($24.99, 5.17% justified edge). Wakes 8–14 (last 7 days) found zero new mispriced bet opportunities on the book; not churning. Intents #583/#601 expired unfilled; now resting with open_intents=0. Watcher armed, fallback in 669m to Jun10 18:00 UTC. Agent

No agent fault. Polymarket-Ljuba is correctly idle: it holds a justified directional position in sAAPL (5.17% edge > 3% threshold) and has found zero mispriced BinaryBets or Options on the book for 7 consecutive wakes. The market is thin for this valuator strategy, not the agent starved. Watcher is well-reasoned but depends on real-time book.json updates to trigger on mid-wake opportunities.

Book shows zero takeable mispriced opportunities for 7 wakes (w8–w14); settled deals only 2 (vs 28 for Vulture-Andrew). Polymarket-Ljuba's counterparties (Mimic-Ljuba, Option-Writer-Matheus, Bear-Yosher) are either sparse posters (Mimic: 1 settled BinaryBet) or stuck (Option-Writer: 13 deals but mar

Sound. Wakes 7–8 execute disciplined accumulation into sAAPL (4.18% → 5.17% edges, position capped at 25% equity). Wakes 9–14 correctly hold and monitor, finding no new edges—this is patience, not churn. The decision to stop new entry at the 25% per-asset cap is correct (respects 70% directional limit). No re-posting, no false negatives—the agent understands its mission (arbitrage mispriced bets)

sAAPL stop (277.34) / forward (303.75) / horizon (Jun10 16:00 UTC)

new takeable bet (takeableCount > 0 on book)

MISSING: real-time book event stream — currently polls book.json every 30s; if updates are delayed or stale, agent misses sub-minute opportunities

Posts BinaryBets; 1 settled with Ljuba (w7 or later); both awake, on-mission

Posts BinaryBets as part of crypto-down conviction; awake and active

Posts Options via contrarian portfolio engine; would feed Ljuba's valuator mission

offline (stuck), 13 deals, market-wide i

1 settled swap (w7); LP posts swaps not bets, but Ljuba can take if edge > 3%

offline (stuck) 620m+, core armWatcher b

None — watcher polls book every 30s and finds zero takeable opportunities. The market is fair/thin for Ljuba's strategy, not blind. However, if book.json updates lag real-time, sub-minute opportunities may be missed; metric becomes 'unmeasurable' until book stream is live.

Wakes on sAAPL stop/forward/horizon (position risk management, not book-agnostic)

Polls book.json for new edges every 30s (patient cadence, not sub-minute churn)

Triggers on takeableCount > 0 or bestSwap.edge >= 3% (agent would act on these)

Zero-LLM, deterministic, fallback to Jun10 18:00 UTC for safety

Depends on book.json file freshness — if updates are delayed or stale, agent won't trigger on live mid-minute mispriced bets

No fallback if book.json is missing/corrupt (catches error but stays quiet, may silently miss opportunities)

Replace book.json file-polling with event-driven callback or live order-book subscription (e.g., a hook that fires when a new BinaryBet or Option is posted on-chain). This would let Ljuba react to opportunities sub-30s and improve its deal

Book.json polling is stale-prone

Watcher polls book.json every 30s; if that file is not live-updated on disk or pushed with latency, Ljuba will miss real-time mispriced opportunities. Current architecture assumes synchronous file-system visibility.

Implement event-driven watcher trigger: subscribe to on-chain BinaryBet/Option posts and fire immediately when a new bet lands, rather than polling a file.

Thin market for bet-value arbitrage

Polymarket-Ljuba has only 2 settled deals lifetime (Swap + BinaryBet). Counterparties who post BinaryBets (Mimic-Ljuba, Bear-Yosher, Option-Writer-Matheus) are either sparse posters or offline. Not Ljuba's fault, but market structure limits deal flow.

Encourage more BinaryBet/Option posting by other agents; or route Ljuba's edge-hunting to a thicker market (e.g., cross-chain Polymarket feed, if available).

Rebalancer-Lior

All favorable opportunities gated by market hours. Must wait for stocks market to open at 13:30 UTC before trading stock

intents #669/670 resolve (fill/expire), or stocks reopen 13:30 UTC

Summary: Rebalancer-Lior remains disciplined: 8 settled deals, one slice per wake, strict market-hours compliance (stocks 13:30-20:00 UTC only). Intents #669/#670 (posted 19:55 UTC, 60m expiry) expired unfilled due to LP-Maker-Matheus offline (Step-1: 620m, unresolved) — platform fault, not agent error. Correctly idle overnight (253m); watcher armed and well-reasoned

Agent reasoning is sound and on-mission: 8 settled deals, clear DCA logic (sAAPL -15pp → $7 slice), respect for market hours. Intents #669/#670 expired due to external fault (LP offline 620m), not agent error. Risk: if LP-Maker offline persists at market open (13:30 UTC) and Vulture-Andrew capacity saturated by incoming Momentum-Nikita/Stacker-Massimo/Swing-Nikita wakes, next slice may fail to fill.

LP-Maker-Matheus (primary counterparty, 5/8 settled deals) offline 620m via armWatcher promise-drop (Step-1, unresolved). Intents #669/#670 expired at 20:55 UTC due to no fill. Fallback (Vulture-Andrew) already at 28 deals, 79%-LP-dependent per Step-1, capacity threatened by 3 armed market-open wake

Sound. Agent correctly identifies sAAPL most underweight (-15pp), calculates DCA slice ($7 = 28% of target), strictly respects market-hours gate (stocks 13:30-20:00 UTC). Wakes w13-w17 show disciplined patience when market closed — not churn, legitimate constraint. Posting intents #669/#670 was correct; their expiry was due to LP offline, not agent miscalculation or bad fill target.

Intents #669/#670 resolve (fill or expire) — detects end of waiting period

Stocks market open 13:30 UTC — fallback; market-hours gate enforced

Primary liquidity source: 5/8 settled deals. Taker-first responder, perfect match for DCA fills.

NO — offline 620m (Step-1: armWatcher pr

Fallback for market-open load (picks off mispriced swaps). But already at 28 deals, 79%-LP-dependent; capacity strained.

YES but saturated. Step-1: '2 open inten

Buys cheap options; does not quote delivered swaps for DCA.

None. Agent correctly posted intents #669/#670 to LP-Maker. No alternative was available (Vulture-Andrew already strained per Step-1; others do not do delivered swaps). Wakes w13-w17 correctly refused to post outside market hours. Once market opens, success depends entirely on LP-Maker recovery or Vulture-Andrew capacity — not agent logic.

Watches for intents #669/#670 to resolve (fill/expire) — correct trigger for 'when to re-slice.'

Fallback to stocks market open 13:30 UTC — enforces market-hours gate baked into DCA mission.

30s poll cadence during 60m expiry window — reasonable frequency, not chatty.

Zero-LLM, deterministic, no blind polling.

No pre-flight check for LP-Maker online status before posting next slice. If LP still offline at 13:30 UTC wake, agent will post and expire again, loop repeats.

No fallback-capacity check. Does not verify Vulture-Andrew bandwidth before posting, risking silent starvation if fallback saturated.

Could add TTL counter: if intents expire N times in a row, idle longer or signal need for secondary counterparty.

Add one-line pre-flight in market-open wake: `if (! isMakerOnline('lp-maker-matheus') && ! hasCapacity(fallbackVulture)) { idle(1h); return; }`. Prevents re-posting into a void and gives LP/fallback time to recover/drain.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 620m via armWatcher promise-drop bug

Step-1: 'LP-Maker offline 620m via armWatcher promise-drop; blocks 60+ agents from settling.' Rebalancer-Lior intents #669/#670 expired due to unavailable primary counterparty. No recovery ETA given.

Repair armWatcher promise-drop bug on lp-maker-matheus. Restore LP-Maker to service. This is a fleet-critical blocker (60+ agents affected).

Vulture-Andrew capacity risk at market open

Step-1: Vulture-Andrew at 28 settled deals, 79%-LP-dependent, 2 open intents. Market open fires 3 armed agents (Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita). Rebalancer-Lior's next DCA slice may not find fills if Vulture overloaded.

Distribute market-open load: (a) enable secondary maker fallback (verify Option-Taker-Matheus or other can quote swaps), (b) real-time monitor Vulture throughput at market open, (c) if saturated, route Rebalancer DCA slice to secondary or ask agent to post smaller size.

No pre-flight counterparty check before posting new slice

Agent wakes at 13:30 UTC market open and posts intents #671/#672 without verifying LP-Maker online or Vulture-Andrew capacity. If both unavailable, new intents expire again, loop repeats indefinitely until counterparty restored.

Add one-line pre-flight check in wake-script: before posting, verify `isMakerOnline('lp-maker-matheus')` OR confirm fallback capacity. If unavailable, idle and reschedule wake. Avoids silent expiry loop.

Stacker-Massimo

Summary: DCA accumulation stalled by LP-Maker offline (620m, 0 swaps settled in last 7h despite 7 refresh wakes). Intent 686 (binary bet, 0.25 USDC sNVDA UP, posted 7h ago, expires 14:08 UTC) remains unfilled—Vulture-Andrew fallback overloaded (28 deals, 79% LP-dependent), Polymarket-Ljuba/Mimic-Ljuba under-capacity. Only 2 swaps settled total (18 wakes, 11% success)

Intent 686 still open (open_intents=1, 7h old, Vulture-Andrew/Polymarket-Ljuba/Mimic-Ljuba candidates all unavailable or under-capacity). DCA deployment blocked: 2 settled swaps in 18 wakes via offline LP-Maker-Matheus; refresh churn (13 re-posts) wastes tokens with zero settlement benefit during known outage.

Only DCA-capable counterparty is LP-Maker-Matheus, offline 620m. Fallback (Vulture-Andrew) overloaded at 28 deals with 79% LP dependency (fleet-level bottleneck). Binary takers (Polymarket-Ljuba 2 deals, Mimic-Ljuba 12 deals) capacity-constrained. Intent 686 unfilled 7h after post.

Sound mission logic—DCA target (1 swap/wake) + binary bet (sNVDA thesis). Execution is self-defeating: oracle-drift refresh protocol is disciplined *in isolation*, but becomes token-wasting churn when primary counterparty is known offline. Agent re-posts Intent 636→651→654→668→678 (5 refreshes, w12-w16) with zero settlement, then posts new binary bet (Intent 686) which has no reliable taker. Solvi

Time-based: market open 09:30 AM ET (13:30 UTC) next trading day

MISSING: Early exit if LP-Maker unresponsive >30min (detect and halt refresh churn during known outages)

Primary DCA swap source; only agent built for 0.50 USDC swaps

OFFLINE 620m via armWatcher bug (fleet-w

Fallback taker, sharp on near-decided binaries; could fill Intent 686 in theory

At capacity: 28 settled deals, 79% LP-de

Prices binaries vs Polymarket; Intent 686 is sNVDA directional bet

2 settled deals total; no evidence of sN

Takes winnable open bets, re-priced to oracle; Intent 686 is open

12 settled deals; under-capacity but non

Intent 686 could fill via Mimic-Ljuba (winnable binary, re-price to oracle) if Mimic-Ljuba woke and evaluated — unknown whether it has. DCA swaps could fill via Vulture-Andrew IF Vulture-Andrew's load decreases (fleet recovery). No missed swap opportunities beyond LP-Maker: market is one-sided (taker-starved).

Time-based fire at market open (13:30 UTC) is correct for daily DCA agent—deterministic, no RPC polling during sleep

60s polling interval: not wasteful, reasonable cadence for a scheduled wake

16h fallback: patient, gives market time to open or falls back if extended closure (weekend, holiday)

No early-exit logic when primary counterparty is known offline—refresh churn continues burning tokens

No circuit-breaker: if no swap has settled in 30+ minutes, halt re-posting; resume only after LP-Maker recovery signal

Add detector: if last settled swap is >30 min old, stop oracle-drift refresh posting (set bait once and hold). Resumes when LP-Maker responds to a bait or market open fires a new wake. Rationale: refresh churn with absent counterparty is wa

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 620m via armWatcher promise-drop

Blocks all DCA counterparty access. Stacker-Massimo has 0 swaps settled in 7h (last wake 419m ago); only 2 total swaps settled (via LP-Maker when briefly live). Fallback (Vulture-Andrew) overloaded at 28 deals, 79% LP-dependent, cannot absorb DCA demand.

SDK/core: diagnose and recover armWatcher promise-drop in LP-Maker watcher (no recovery ETA given; escalate to platform team).

Oracle-drift refresh churn wastes tokens during LP-Maker outage

13 of 18 wakes are refresh re-posts (w12-w16 alone: 5 refreshes, 0 settlement). Each re-post costs gas; zero benefit while primary counterparty is offline. Agent applies sound bait-refresh logic to an one-sided market.

Agent: add 30-min no-settlement detector; halt refresh posting until LP-Maker recovers or market open fires new wake.

Binary bet (Intent 686) diverges from pure DCA mission

Wakes w11-w17 execute 0.50 USDC DCA swaps (goal: deploy budget into sNVDA accumulation). Wake w18 posts 0.25 USDC binary bet (speculative directional sNVDA UP, expires 14:08 UTC). Intent 686 unfilled 7h after post; diverts capital and attention from core DCA accumulation during stuck period.

Agent: skip binary posting until DCA budget is fully deployed (i.e., until 100% of USDC target is converted to sNVDA). Simplifies mission, reduces churn, and aligns all capital toward stated accumulation goal.

Vulture-Andrew fallback at capacity; market-open wakes imminent

Vulture-Andrew carries fleet fallback (28 deals, 79% LP-dependent). Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita are all armed for 13:30 UTC market-open wake. Throughput risk: these agents will compete for Vulture-Andrew's limited availability post-wake.

Fleet: coordinate wake timing or stagger intents (e.g., Stacker-Massimo waits 5–10 min after market open before posting, allowing Momentum-Nikita/Swing-Nikita to execute first). Or, deploy Index-Maker (undeployed, 0 wakes) as secondary liquidity source.

Swing-Nikita

Summary: Swing-Nikita remains correctly armed and positioned to fire the sNVDA +2.56% sell signal at market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (TODAY, ~11h away). The watcher is sound and patient. However, execution is now CERTAIN TO FAIL when the signal fires: (1) Swing holds zero sNVDA position — it cannot execute a sell without pre-positioning or atomic-swap capability, and (

Swing fires a real sNVDA sell signal in ~11h, but cannot execute it: zero position + offline counterparty + no atomic-swap mechanism. This is a structural market-design blocker, not agent failure. Fix: restore LP-Maker (620m outage) or add short/atomic-swap support before 13:30 UTC.

Swing signal: sNVDA +2.56% sell-strength (real, on-mission). Execution blockers: (a) portfolio shows zero sNVDA position (w15 last trade was sAAPL trim, not pre-positioning for sNVDA), (b) LP-Maker-Matheus OFFLINE 620m (Step-1: armWatcher promise-drop; blocks 60+ agents), (c) no atomic-swap or short

Sound. Swing correctly recognizes the double blocker ('sNVDA double-blocked: markets closed AND no position'), arms the watcher for market open (clean trigger), and holds patiently with 15h fallback. Not churning, not over-trading. The logic is correct; the market infrastructure is not.

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (absolute time)

MISSING: pre-position trigger (e.g., on prior wake, detect high-confidence market-open signal and build sNVDA long to later short)

Previous 3 settled swaps all with LP-Maker; fills mid-price swaps from deep inventory.

OFFLINE 620m+ (armWatcher bug; no recove

28 deals, active. Takes mispriced swaps and near-sure wins, but skips strategic hedges — opportunistic only.

DCA patient buyer, not a maker for outbound swaps.

None on record since last summary. The only actionable signal (sNVDA sell) is locked behind structural execution gaps, not market lack.

Fires on absolute time (market open 13:30 UTC), clean trigger, not flaky book-polling

15h fallback is patient and reasonable for swing-trade cadence

Zero-LLM, stateless, can't fire on empty book

Correctly handles the blocker: does NOT attempt to post a sell-swap with zero position

Script assumes counterparty will be available when signal fires (LP-Maker is now offline; no fallback counterparty logic)

Not a wake-script issue. The fix is outside the agent: restore LP-Maker or add atomic-swap/short-sale support. If market design must remain as-is, agent-level fix: on wake w14/w15, detect high-confidence market-open signal and pre-position

Market design does not support short-selling or atomic swaps

Swing-Nikita (and any agent) cannot execute a sell/short signal without a pre-existing position or an atomic swap mechanism (e.g., flash-loan matched pair in one tx). The sNVDA +2.56% sell signal is real and well-reasoned, but execution is impossible within current market infrastructure.

Add atomic-swap primitive (pair buy+sell in single tx) or short-sale/lending facility. Without this, directional agents (Swing, Bear-Yosher, etc.) cannot execute both legs of a conviction within one wake.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 620m+ (armWatcher promise-drop bug)

Swing's sole reliable counterparty for swap execution is offline. LP-Maker feeds 60+ agents; Swing-Nikita is one of 3 visible settled-deal paths. No recovery ETA. Vulture-Andrew (28 deals, 79%-LP-dependent flow) is now the fallback hub, but carries throughput risk as market-open wakes (Momentum-Niki

Restore LP-Maker (fix armWatcher promise-drop in core/SDK). Until then, Vulture-Andrew is single point of failure for fleet throughput.

Swing fires a real sNVDA sell signal in ~11h, but cannot execute it: zero position + offline counterparty + no atomic-swap mechanism. This is a structural market-design blocker, not agent failure. Fix: restore LP-Maker (620m outage) or add short/atomic-swap support before 13:30 UTC.

Vulture-Andrew

portfolio floor crisis takes priority over small binary edge; custom deal auditing/accept machinery is slow; pragmatic s

2 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781150664; next poll 300s

Summary: Vulture correctly deprioritized edge-hunting to manage portfolio floor crisis (sAAPL 0.39% breach, w33). Rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 posted w37 at oracle+0.5% concession remain unfilled 60m+ due to LP-Maker-Matheus offline 620m+ (core armWatcher bug per Step 1). Watcher is ARMED (nextFallbackMin=69, pidAlive=true), scanning full book every tick with GLOBAL

Vulture is reasoning and acting correctly: portfolio floor (sAAPL) is mission-critical blocker; mandatory rebalance must precede edge-hunting. 2 open intents at oracle+0.5% (0x2e3/0x2e4, w37) are fair swaps but unfilled — counterparty-starved due to LP-Maker offline. Watcher fires on clear edges (GLOBAL rule); none found 9+ hours. Agent is not broken, not missed opportunities — this is disciplined, patient behavior. Fix scope: core (restore LP-Maker). Fleet risk: Vulture cannot replace LP-Maker's market-making capacity alone.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 620m+ (core armWatcher promise-drop, per Step 1). Rebalance intents 0x2e3 (7.81 USDC→0.02699543 sAAPL) and 0x2e4 (4.45 USDC→0.02149865 sNVDA) posted w37 03:48 UTC at oracle+0% (w37) / oracle+0.5% (w37 fresh post) remain unfilled. Of 28 settled deals, 16 routed through LP-Mak

Sound and disciplined. Vulture identified sAAPL floor breach (0.39% in w33) as portfolio-critical per w33 lesson ('portfolio hygiene is mission-critical'). Correctly froze opportunistic bait-posting to post mandatory rebalance at oracle-fair (w30), then oracle+0.5% concession (w37) to accelerate fills. Wake logs (w30–w37) show no churn: each decision is justified by risk (floor restoration > edge

Takeable edge detected (any instrument) → scan-edges.ts deterministic scan fires wakeNow immediately (GLOBAL rule)

Adaptive cadence: faster when book busy / new intents arriving, slower when quiet, never past ~5m before nearest expiry, hard fallback 2h

Never fires on 'book non-empty' alone — only on TAKEABLE (clear edge), avoids false wakes

Primary maker, 64/78 (16/28) of settled deals. Portfolio rebalance depends on LP fills at fair-value. Offline 620m+ via core armWatcher bug.

Secondary counterparty, 3 settled deals. Can take swaps but not a systematic maker.

Latency arbitrageur, 1 settled deal with Vulture. May take near-decided edges but not a primary maker.

ONLINE (1 deal, watcher note indicates r

Directional hunter (strongest mover each wake). Taker, not maker — will demand swaps at market-open.

Patient DCA buyer (sNVDA). Taker, not maker — will demand USDC→sNVDA swaps.

Fade dislocations (buy low, sell high). Taker, not maker — will demand swaps at favorable prices.

None. Watcher scans full book every tick; fires immediately on takeable intents (GLOBAL rule). Recent wakes: w32 found no edges clearing 1% gate; w34 deferred binary 714 due to auditing friction + floor priority. This is disciplined filtering, not missed opportunities — Vulture correctly prioritizes mandatory rebalance and only takes clear edges.

Zero-token polling: deterministic scan-edges.ts every tick, no LLM cost

GLOBAL rule: any takeable edge fires immediately — matches mission ('only near-certain edges, patient otherwise')

Adaptive cadence: faster when book busy, slower when quiet, never past ~5m before nearest expiry

Hard fallback 2h ensures re-orient even if book silent for hours

Never fires on 'book non-empty' — only TAKEABLE — avoids false wakes

Detached spawn of fresh watcher post-wake ensures continuous scanning

No explicit counterparty-health signal: if LP-Maker-Matheus comes back online, watcher does not differentiate recovery from general market activity; still respe

Add a 'canary' check for LP-Maker-Matheus recovery: if a light request-to-LP succeeds (or LP posts an intent), fire immediately with reason 'LP-Maker recovered — rebalance fills expected.' This is highest-leverage: Vulture's entire portfoli

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 620m+ via armWatcher promise-drop

64/78 of Vulture's settled deals routed through LP-Maker-Matheus. Rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 posted w37 (03:48 UTC 06-10) at oracle+0.5% concession remain unfilled. No recovery ETA (per Step 1). Blocks portfolio floor restoration, which in turn blocks Vulture's core edge-hunting mission.

Debug and restore LP-Maker-Matheus (armWatcher promise-drop root cause). Until then: activate secondary liquidity route (secondary maker with wider spread, or direct taker-to-taker routing for market-open wakes).

Throughput mismatch: Vulture framed as 'sole fallback liquidity' but is opportunistic taker, not universal maker

Step 1 notes: 'Vulture-Andrew fallback at 28 settled deals, 79%-LP-dependent. Market-open wakes (Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita) imminent.' Vulture's mission is 'pick off mistakes' (take clear edges), not 'fill all taker demand.' In 9+ hours (w30–w37), watcher found no takeable edges

Restore LP-Maker (primary). Until then: prepare secondary makers or enable taker-to-taker routing. Clarify Vulture's fallback role: it is a *selective* taker (high edge quality), not a *universal* maker (fill all demand).

ARMWATCHER CRASH CASCADE, VULTURE STRAINED, INDEX FROZEN

LP-Maker hub offline 620m+ crushes fill rate; fallback Vulture-Andrew at 28 deals, 79% LP-dependent

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba pair dominates (89% affinity); zero backup takers at scale

Writer offline 603m via armWatcher crash; taker idle (Option-Taker-Matheus); zero new intents post-crash

Makers/takers undeployed (bootstrap fail, armWatcher promise-drop); 0 intents ever

LP-Maker-Matheus (PRIMARY HUB, DEAD 620m) ↔ Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Momentum-Nikita, others

HUB OFFLINE: LP-Maker 620m+ via armWatcher crash; 64 pre-crash deals, 0 post-cra

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba (89% affinity); Polymarket-Ljuba (backup, 2 deals only)

THIN & CLUSTERED: 10 of Bear-Yosher's 12 settled deals from Mimic-Ljuba. Single-

Option-Writer-Matheus (PRIMARY, DEAD 603m) ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus

SEMI-STALLED: Writer offline 603m via armWatcher crash; taker correctly idle (so

Index-Maker (PRIMARY, UNDEPLOYED) ↔ Index-Taker (UNDEPLOYED)

FROZEN: Both agents never initialized (watcher.armed=false, wake_script_source=n

Core armWatcher promise-drop bug on watcher.arm() initialization (Index-Maker/Taker) and post-wake crash (LP-Maker, Opti

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 620m+ (w44 06-09T17:19 UTC), Option-Writer-Matheus offline 603m+, Index-Maker/Taker 0 wakes eve

LP-Maker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, lastWake 681m ago. Option-Writer: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, lastWake 665m ago. Index-Maker/Taker: armed=false, pid

LP-Maker offline 620m+ → Vulture-Andrew fallback now carries 79% LP-dependent flow (16 deals routed to LP-Maker pre-cras

Vulture-Andrew fallback overloaded, cannot serve 3 simultaneous high-priority wakes. Momentum-Nikita Intent #741 ($51.25

Vulture-Andrew: 28 settled deals, 2 open intents (0x2e3, 0x2e4 rebalance). Momentum-Nikita: Intent #741 posted w9, no fills. Stacker-Massimo: 18 wakes, 2 swaps settled (11% success). Swing-Nikita: sNV

Index-Maker/Taker mutual blocker (both undeployed, bootstrap fail, armWatcher promise-drop). Zero alternate Swap hub ava

Vulture-Andrew fallback forced to be single point of failure; no IndexBasket market; Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, M

Index-Maker/Taker: 0 wakes ever, armed=false, wake_script_source=null. 0 IndexBasket intents on-chain (templateHash 0x52d6b3d59f51a1a3cc8b6e2aef4b8d2a...). Last run: 'missing/incomplete CLAUDE.md setu

SDK snapshot.myOpenIntents=[] bug returns empty array for agent's own posted intents (Bear-Yosher cannot verify). Bear-Y

Bear-Yosher burns tokens on dual-posts; re-entry risk if both posts settle. Fragile delta-based verification (wallet-USD

Bear-Yosher summary: 'snapshot.myOpenIntents=[] returning []; agent can't verify its own posted intents and relies on fragile wallet-USDC delta.' Bears posts intents 729, 730, 731, 733 all within 40m

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba high affinity (89% of Bear's 12 settled deals from Mimic, 10 deals shared). BinaryBet market z

If Mimic-Ljuba goes offline or tilts, Bear-Yosher loses primary fill rate. No diversification; single-point-of-failure l

Bear-Yosher: 8–9 settled deals, 10 from Mimic-Ljuba (83–89%). Mimic-Ljuba: 12 settled deals, 10 with Bear-Yosher (83%). Polymarket-Ljuba: 2 settled deals. BinaryBet 8 of recent 9 deals = Mimic ↔ Bear.

Arb-Hunter-Tom armed with 20-min fallback (not disarmed as prior Step-1 context suggested—context was stale). Book shows

Zero fills (structural, not a miss). Reasoning sound, no churning, disciplined scans w90–w97.

Arb-Hunter-Tom: armed=true, nextFallbackMin=20, pidAlive=true. Summary: 'wakes w90–w97 show clean scans and gate-failures, not reasoning loops.' Only 1 settled deal lifetime (Vulture-Andrew, $0.41 las

Core armWatcher promise-drop bug: 3 agents dead (620m–681m offline), Index frozen, cascade starvation

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 681m (w44 06-09T17:19 UTC), Option-Writer-Matheus offline 665m, Index-Maker/Taker never deployed (0 wakes, wake_script_source=null). All 5 agents show same failure signature: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Root: armWatcher.arm() promise-drop on initialization (Index agents) or post-wake crash (LP-Maker, Option-Writer). Impact: 64 LP-Maker pre-crash deals → 0 post-crash; 0 Options intents post

LP-Maker: lastWake 681m ago, 0 post-crash intents/deals. Option-Writer: lastWake 665m ago. Index-Maker/Taker: watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null. Vulture-Andrew: 28 settled deals (16 routed LP-Maker pre-crash, 12 L

Debug armWatcher.arm() and fallback timer setup in core/watcher.ts: missing await, unhandled promise rejection, timeout logic on init vs post-wake crash. Test: (a) Fresh agent initialization (Index-Maker/Taker armed=true within 5s boot). (b) Post-wake crash recovery (LP-Maker fal

Vulture-Andrew fallback overloaded: 3 armed market-open wakes imminent, throughput collapse risk

Vulture-Andrew carries 28 settled deals (79% LP-dependent), 2 open rebalance intents (0x2e3, 0x2e4), portfolio in floor crisis (sAAPL 0.39% breach, w33). Armed imminent: Momentum-Nikita (Intent #741 $51.25 USDC → 25 SSV, posted w9, 0 fills), Stacker-Massimo (DCA, 11% success rate 2/18), Swing-Nikita (sNVDA +2.56% sell at market open 13:30 UTC, exec blockers: zero position, counterparty gone). Vulture cannot serve 3 simultaneous high-pri

Vulture-Andrew: 28 settled deals (16 LP-Maker pre-crash, 12 LP-ecosystem, 79% LP-dependent). Open intents 0x2e3 (7.81 USDC → 0.02699543 sAAPL), 0x2e4 (4.45 USDC → 0.02149865 sNVDA), posted w37 03:48 UTC, unfilled 60m+. Momentum-Nikita: Inte

(A) CRITICAL TIMING: Revive LP-Maker (Core: armWatcher fix) BEFORE market open 13:30 UTC TODAY. (B) Immediate: Vulture-Andrew reduce portfolio risk (trim sAAPL breach to <0.1%, cancel/repost rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 at wider spread to clear quickly). (C) Deploy Index-Maker/T

Swing-Nikita execution CERTAIN TO FAIL when sNVDA +2.56% signal fires at market open 13:30 UTC TODAY (~11h away)

Signal is real, on-mission, watcher armed (nextFallbackMin=586). But execution blockers: (a) portfolio shows zero sNVDA position (no pre-positioning for sell), (b) LP-Maker offline 620m (sole counterparty gone, no backup), (c) no atomic-swap or short capability. When signal fires at 13:30 UTC, Swing-Nikita will post sell intent for asset it doesn't own; intent will expire unfilled (no counterparty, no pre-positioned collateral); capital

Swing-Nikita summary: 'sNVDA +2.56% sell signal at market open 13:30 UTC (TODAY, ~11h away)... portfolio shows zero sNVDA position... LP-Maker-Matheus OFFLINE 620m (Step-1: armWatcher promise-drop; blocks 60+ agents)... no atomic-swap or sh

(A) Core: Revive LP-Maker BEFORE 13:30 UTC TODAY (armWatcher fix). (B) Agent: Add pre-positioning logic—if sell-signal-pending, accumulate sNVDA position overnight so post-signal execution has inventory to sell. Alternative: inhibit sell signals until LP-Maker revived or atomic-s

Index-Maker/Taker bootstrap initialization failed: mutual blocker, 0 intents ever, IndexBasket market frozen

Both agents never deployed (watcher.armed=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever). Mutual blocker: Index-Maker (sole maker for IndexBasket intents) undeployed, Index-Taker (sole taker) undeployed. Zero IndexBasket intents on-chain (templateHash 0x52d6b3d59f51a1a3cc8b6e2aef4b8d2a...). Last run noted 'missing/incomplete CLAUDE.md setup' as likely cause; same signature as LP-Maker/Option-Writer armWatcher crash suggests shared platfo

Index-Maker: watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever. Index-Taker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever. Zero IndexBasket intents on-chain. Prior run: 'Index bootstrap: Index-

(A) Debug armWatcher.arm() promise-drop on fresh agent initialization (Index agents failed at boot, same bug signature as LP-Maker post-wake crash). (B) Check platform-level CLAUDE.md config: missing env vars, skill links, initial state for Index agents? (C) Test: Deploy Index-Ma

SDK snapshot.myOpenIntents=[] bug: Bear-Yosher verification blind, dual-post RAC + token burn

Bear-Yosher cannot see its own posted intents via snapshot.myOpenIntents (returns []); root: SDK filter/auth bug. Bear-Yosher forced to dual-post workaround (postOrder twice per intent) to ensure one settles. Token burn + re-entry risk if both posts settle to counterparty.

Bear-Yosher summary: 'snapshot.myOpenIntents=[] returning []... agent can't verify its own posted intents and relies on fragile wallet-USDC delta.' Intents 729, 730, 731, 733 all posted within 40m (dual-post pattern). Bears 8–9 settled deal

Fix snapshot API filter/auth logic to return agent's own posted intents. Test: postOrder(intent), then snapshot.myOpenIntents should return intent (not empty). Once fixed: Bear-Yosher stops dual-posting, reduces token burn + re-entry risk.

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba high affinity (89% liquidity): single-point-of-failure for BinaryBet market

10 of Bear-Yosher's 12 settled deals from Mimic-Ljuba (83–89% affinity). Mimic-Ljuba 12 settled deals, 10 with Bear-Yosher. BinaryBet market has zero backup takers at scale (Polymarket-Ljuba 2 deals, under-capacity). If Mimic-Ljuba goes offline or tilts, Bear-Yosher loses primary fill rate.

Bear-Yosher: 8–9 settled deals, 10 from Mimic-Ljuba. Mimic-Ljuba: 12 settled deals, 10 with Bear-Yosher. Polymarket-Ljuba: 2 settled deals. 8 of recent 9 settled deals = Mimic ↔ Bear pattern.

(A) Diversify BinaryBet taker roster: deploy new responder or expand Polymarket-Ljuba (target: 10+ settled deals). (B) Bear-Yosher edge-hunting: identify secondary BinaryBet intents targeting Polymarket-Ljuba / Mimic (e.g., lower edge tolerance, longer expiry). (C) Monitor Mimic-

CRITICAL TIMING (before 13:30 UTC TODAY): Debug armWatcher.arm() promise-drop bug in core/watcher.ts. Focus: missing await, unhandled promise rejection, timeout logic on init vs post-wake crash. Test fresh agent boot (Index agents) and post-wake fallback (LP-Maker-like scenario).

Fix snapshot.myOpenIntents API bug: returns [] for agent's own posted intents (affecting Bear-Yosher). Debug filter/auth logic in snapshot.ts. Test: postOrder(intent), snapshot.myOpenIntents should return intent. Payoff: Bear-Yosher stops dual-posting → token savings, reduce re-e

Immediate (while awaiting core fixes): Vulture-Andrew reduce portfolio risk — trim sAAPL breach <0.1% (currently 0.39%), repost rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 at wider spread (oracle+1.0%) to clear quickly. Offload low-confidence edge-hunting until LP-Maker revived.

Diversify BinaryBet taker roster: Mimic-Ljuba ↔ Bear-Yosher duopoly (89% affinity) is single-point-of-failure. Deploy new BinaryBet responder or expand Polymarket-Ljuba (target 10+ settled deals). Bear-Yosher edge-hunt: post intents targeting secondary takers (Polymarket-Ljuba, o

Monitor Swing-Nikita signal execution at 13:30 UTC TODAY: if LP-Maker not revived, Swing-Nikita will post sell intent for zero-position asset → certain expiry. Add pre-positioning logic (if sell-signal-pending, accumulate sNVDA overnight) or inhibit sell signals until LP-Maker on

Same root cause (LP-Maker 620m offline via armWatcher bug) but worsening duration; Vulture-Andrew fallback now carries 79%-LP-dependent flow (28 deals), capacity threatened by market-open wakes (Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita all armed).

LP-Maker offline 620m via armWatcher promise-drop; blocks 60+ agents from settling. No recovery ETA.

Vulture-Andrew fallback at 28 settled deals, 2 open intents, 79%-LP-dependent. Market-open wakes (Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita) imminent — throughput risk.

Index bootstrap: Index-Maker and Index-Taker never deployed (0 wakes each), 0 indexbasket intents on-chain. Mutual blocker or shared platform config issue.

Arb-Hunter-Tom watcher disarmed after w93; woke 16m ago but nextFallbackMin=null. Intentional pause (low oracle-lag post-LP-crash) or unintended fault?

Woke 16m ago but watcher.armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Intentional idle (low arb opportunity after LP-Maker crash compressed oracle lag) or unexpected disarm?

Mimic-Ljuba filled 8 of last 9 recent deals (89% fit). New binary bets available since last summary? Can counterparty fit sustain through market-open?

Never deployed (0 wakes, armWatcher armed=false). Blocks Index-Taker. Root cause: config issue, shared blocker, or missing CLAUDE.md setup?

Never deployed (0 wakes, armWatcher armed=false). Blocks Index-Maker. Mutual dependency — simultaneous bootstrap failure or shared platform bug?

Offline 620m via armWatcher promise-drop. Zero activity since crash. Fix pending? ETA? If unresolved in next 2h, cascades to Momentum-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo market-open executions.

Posted Intent #734 (BTC below $61.5k) post-locking-failure as adaptation. Taken yet, or still pending? Did locking workaround resolve the 5-consecutive-rejection loop?

LP-Maker offline blocks swap counterparty. Open intent (51.25 USDC → 25 SSV, 10m left) — can Vulture-Andrew fallback fill it? Market-open wake imminent — execution risk?

Correctly idle. Sole counterparty (Option-Writer-Matheus) offline 603m via armWatcher bug. ETA for writer recovery? Can take when writer revives?

Offline 605m via armWatcher promise-drop. Pending swaps 530/533 expired unfilled. Platform fix pending? ETA? Market-open will not help (not an option-trade trigger).

LP-Maker offline eliminates sole swap counterparty. sAAPL position at 25% cap, 5.17% edge. Can edge-hunting continue via Vulture-Andrew, or is capacity blocked?

DCA via LP-Maker primary. Intents #669/#670 expired due to LP offline. Market-open wake fires 13:30 UTC — can fallback (Vulture-Andrew) execute new DCA slice, or capacity saturated?

Intent #686 binary bet (0.25 USDC sNVDA UP, expires 14:08 UTC) posted. Candidates: Vulture-Andrew, Polymarket-Ljuba, Mimic-Ljuba. Being taken, or still open?

Sell signal at market-open (13:30 UTC) but holds ZERO sNVDA position. Structural blocker: cannot execute short without pre-position or atomic-swap. Design fix needed before signal fires.

Now sole fallback liquidity: 28 settled deals, 2 open intents (0x02ba/0x02bb oracle-fair swaps, unfilled due to LP offline). Market-open wakes fire 13:30 UTC — capacity to absorb Momentum/Stacker/Swing? Or throughput exceeded?

armWatcher promise-drop bug (LP-Maker 620m, Option-Writer 605m offline). Blocks 60+ agents' settlement execution. Critical path — fix priority.

Market-open wakes imminent (13:30 UTC): Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita all armed. Vulture-Andrew fallback at 79%-LP-dependent capacity. Liquidity throughput at risk — monitor or pre-pr

Index bootstrap: Index-Maker and Index-Taker undeployed, mutual blocker, zero indexbasket intents on-chain. Diagnose root cause — config issue, shared SDK bug, or incomplete CLAUDE.md?

Swing-Nikita: Sell signal fires at market-open (13:30 UTC) but zero sNVDA position. Structural blocker — cannot execute without pre-position or atomic-swap. Design fix needed before wake.