Arb-Hunter-Tom

No takeable binary bet or swap edge. CEX and oracle fully in line — no latency to capture.

new mSSV intent >1597 ≥10bps OR binary bet ≤30min — 30-min fallback

Summary: Prior: swap-pivot locked onto SSV oracle-lag fills (deals #142, #143, #145, #148 — all vs LP-Maker-Matheus). Now: deals confirmed at 17, unchanged. Last fill was deal #148 at w217 (06-11T11:52), landing simultaneously with LP-Maker's crash. w218 (06-14T12:57, 11 min ago) ran one heartbeat wake, found no edge (CEX/oracle in-line). Current state: wakes_failing

Arb-Hunter is broken: wakes_failing=true, '401 Invalid authentication credentials' — its LLM cannot be invoked. Deals locked at 17; last fill deal #148 (w217, 06-11T11:52) landed as LP-Maker crashed; zero fills in the 73h since. w218 (12:57 today, 11 min ago) appears to be a single fallback heartbeat that got through before or at the onset of the 401; the 3-day gap with only one recorded wake is the fingerprint of a broken auth loop. Fix the API key first — counterparty drought is a secondary problem.

wakes_failing=true; wake_error='Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials'; 17 deals, none since deal #148 at w217 (06-11T11:52); 3-day gap June 11→June 14 with only one recorded wake (w218 at 12:57); watcher alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true, fallback in 22 min) but L

w218 reasoning ('CEX and oracle fully in line — no latency to capture') is concise and on-mission for a no-edge wake. Irrelevant going forward: the 401 means no reasoning executes after the watcher fires.

new SSV intent > id 1597 with ≥10bps oracle-lag edge (buy or sell)

new binary bet matching BINARY_BET_HASHES

sole counterparty for 16 of 17 deals; posts SSV swaps priced off stale oracle — the exact oracle-lag surface arb-hunter exploits

1 settled deal; DCA poster occasionally publishes swap slices that could carry oracle-lag edge

posts SSV swaps when concentrating into SSV; could produce oracle-lag edges arb-hunter can take

posts sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT bids only; arb-hunter has no CEX feed for these instruments

unmeasurable: 401 prevents LLM execution, so the watcher fires and the agent cannot reason about or act on any edge it detects. The 3-day gap (June 11→June 14) with a single fallback wake (w218) suggests many potential SSV oracle-lag windows went unscanned; without confirmed resting intents above HIGH_WATER 1597 during that window the count cannot be quantified.

Fires on new intents > HIGH_WATER with ≥10bps SSV oracle-lag edge — maps directly to the latency-arb fill surface

30-min fallback timer ensures a heartbeat even in a dead book

30s CEX cache avoids hammering Binance on every poll cycle

Binary bet hash set included for primary mission surface (near-decided bets)

BINARY_BET_HASHES contains only 1 hash — new binary instruments added since w218 are invisible to the trigger

HIGH_WATER=1597 was set at w218; any SSV intent posted during the 401-outage window and then expired would never be re-scanned after recovery

No ETH/BTC oracle-lag swap path wired in the trigger despite fetchCex supporting both — misses the broader binary-adjacent surface when SSV spreads close

Rotate the broken API key (prerequisite for anything); once healthy, expand BINARY_BET_HASHES to include all active binary instruments and verify HIGH_WATER is current so the first post-recovery wake doesn't miss a 3-day backlog of expired

401 Invalid authentication credentials — LLM calls failing fleet-wide candidate

wakes_failing=true; wake_error='Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials'. Watcher process is alive (armed, pidAlive, nextFallbackMin=22) but every wake invoking Claude returns 401. The 3-day gap (w217 06-11T11:52 → w218 06-14T12:57) with only one recorded wake is co

Rotate or reissue ANTHROPIC_API_KEY for this agent container; restart after key update. If the key is fleet-shared, escalate to core.

Sole counterparty dark for 73h — no swap supply on the oracle-lag surface

16 of 17 deals were vs LP-Maker-Matheus (crashed 4389 min). Rebalancer-Lior (1 deal) is the only surviving counterparty with any historical fit. Even after the 401 is fixed, no SSV oracle-lag intents are being posted while LP-Maker is offline.

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus (separate issue owned by that agent's operator); OR extend arb-hunter's wake-script to also scan Rebalancer-Lior and Momentum-Nikita swap intents for oracle-lag when LP-Maker is absent.

Bear-Yosher

Momentum signal fired HALT: ≥3 of last 4 legs up AND net >+2% on both ETH and BTC. Mission says cancel unfilled bearish

HALT mode: 5h fallback or ETH/BTC ≥5% drop signals possible reversal

Summary: Confirmed crashed at 5871 min (~98h), +4398 min since prior summary (was 1473 min). NEW this run: wakeError now explicit — '401 Invalid authentication credentials' — this is API auth failure, not a clean process exit; the key is invalid/revoked and the watcher cannot start at all. Settled_deals still 17, unchanged since w41 (Jun 10 11:17 UTC). Deal #75 betEx

Hard-crashed 5871 min (~98h) due to 401 API authentication failure — the agent cannot wake under any trigger. Deal #75 USDC is locked 3+ days past its Jun 11 00:58 UTC betExpiry with no on-chain settlement recorded. Intent 869 almost certainly expired unfilled. All trading analysis is moot until the API key is rotated and deal #75 is manually settled.

wakes_failing=true, wakeError='401 Invalid authentication credentials', armed=false, pidAlive=false, last_wake=5871 min ago (w41 Jun 10 11:17 UTC); settled_deals frozen at 17 for ~4398 min

N/A — no wakes since w41 (Jun 10 11:17 UTC). Last logged reasoning was sound: posted intent 869 to maintain exactly-one-resting invariant per mission. The 401 auth failure is infrastructure, not a reasoning failure.

Intent 869 fill or expiry (~Jun 11 12:17 UTC betExpiry — almost certainly already expired)

Deal 75 near-expiry (5 min before Jun 11 00:58 UTC — 3+ days past)

Logged taking BELOW anchors 'nearly instantly' at w36b — confirmed primary BinaryBet counterparty for this agent

Swap counterparty for tech basket buys; responsible for ~11/16 recent fleet settlements

Takes near-decided binaries; potential overlap on BinaryBet taker side

Unmeasurable: watcher dead since w41 Jun 10 11:17 UTC (~5871 min of book activity unseen). Deal #75 settlement window opened Jun 11 00:58 UTC but no settlement was triggered. Cannot quantify missed BinaryBet or swap opportunities without book history.

Intent 869 fill/expiry trigger — correct mechanism for maintaining exactly-one-resting invariant

BinaryBet new-match polling — enables taker-first mission execution without polling all intents

Price-adverse +1.5% ETH/BTC threshold — correct halt condition per mission spec

Deal 75 near-expiry fire 5 min early — good settlement preparation window

4h fallback — appropriate cadence for a patient directional agent

Script is currently unreachable: 401 auth error kills the process before any watcher logic runs — the loop never starts

No auth-check at startup: a failed credential should post a PushNotification rather than silently dying for 98h

Add a startup auth-validation step that fires a PushNotification alert on 401 before entering the watch loop — the script logic is correct for the mission, but a silent credential death is unacceptable at this scale.

401 Invalid authentication credentials — agent completely offline 5871 min

wakes_failing=true, wake_error='Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials'. API key is invalid or revoked; watcher cannot start. Affects only bear-yosher in current data — check if key rotation or env misconfiguration is agent-specific.

Rotate or restore the API key in bear-yosher's environment. Verify key is active. Check other agents' env configs for the same key if shared.

Deal #75 USDC locked 3+ days past betExpiry — manual settlement required

betExpiry epoch 1781139624 = Jun 11 00:58 UTC; now Jun 14 (~5871 min later). settled_deals frozen at 17; no on-chain settlement recorded. USDC locked in deal #75 is unreleased and inaccessible to the agent.

Manually invoke the settlement/judge flow for deal #75 on-chain to release locked USDC. Cannot be done by the agent until auth is restored.

Intent 869 almost certainly expired; open_intents=1 may be stale

Intent 869 posted w41 Jun 10 11:17 UTC with ~Jun 11 12:17 UTC betExpiry. Now 3+ days past that expiry. 4 USDC was locked at posting (w41 snapshot: USDC_locked_intent=4). open_intents=1 in metrics may reflect deal #75 lock or a snapshot artifact.

After restoring auth, verify intent 869 on-chain status. Confirm 4 USDC returned if expired. Re-post anchor intent to restore exactly-one-resting invariant.

Index-Maker

Summary: 29th consecutive null cycle — no change from prior run. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No provisioning signal this cycle. IndexBasket market segment remains fully offline. Not a crash; never initialized.

All fields remain at zero/null across 29 consecutive cycles. No provisioning event has occurred. IndexBasket supply is fully absent — index-taker has no intents to take.

0 wakes, 0 lifetime tokens, null address, null wake_script_source, armed=false, pidAlive=false across 29 cycles — container never provisioned

N/A — agent has never executed; no reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no watcher ever configured — agent unprovisioned

Natural counterparty for LONG IndexBasket intents; also unprovisioned, so no demand either

unmeasurable: agent never woke; no book presence to miss from

wake_script_source is null — no script exists

Provision the container and deploy a wake script before any other analysis is possible

index-maker never provisioned after 29 cycles

Container has never been initialized: null address, 0 wakes, null wake script, watcher never armed. IndexBasket segment is fully dark — index-taker is also starved of supply.

Provision the agent container, assign a wallet address, and deploy the wake script. Coordinate with index-taker provisioning so both sides of the market come online together.

All fields remain at zero/null across 29 consecutive cycles. No provisioning event has occurred. IndexBasket supply is fully absent — index-taker has no intents to take.

Index-Taker

Summary: 29th consecutive null cycle — no change from prior run. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No provisioning signal of any kind. Index-maker (sole natural counterparty, posts the LONG IndexBasket intents this agent would SHORT) remains health=unknown and also undeployed; the IndexBasket segm

Confirmed 29th null cycle: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, $0 lifetime tokens. Agent has never been provisioned. Its only natural counterparty (index-maker) is equally absent — deploying index-taker alone would accomplish nothing.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=$0 — agent container has never been started. Not a crash; never provisioned.

N/A — agent has never executed a single wake; no reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no container/process (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

The only agent that posts LONG IndexBasket intents — the exact instrument index-taker is designed to SHORT. Without it, the book is empty.

health=unknown; also undeployed — 0 wake

unmeasurable: index-maker is also undeployed so no IndexBasket LONG intents have ever appeared on the book — there is nothing to miss.

wake_script_source is null — no watcher exists at all

No fallback, no cadence, no triggers defined

Deploy index-maker first (it generates the book this agent needs); then provision index-taker with a watcher that fires when a LONG IndexBasket intent appears on-chain.

IndexBasket segment entirely unprovisioned — both sides dark

index-taker and index-maker are the only participants in the IndexBasket market. Both have health=unknown, 0 wakes, $0 tokens, no containers. The segment has never been active. 29 consecutive null cycles confirm this is not transient.

Provision index-maker first (it is the maker/supply side); only then provision index-taker. Deploying taker alone leaves it with an empty book and no deals to take.

Confirmed 29th null cycle: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, $0 lifetime tokens. Agent has never been provisioned. Its only natural counterparty (index-maker) is equally absent — deploying index-taker alone would accomplish nothing.

LP-Maker-Matheus

3-day sleep gap left book empty; volTerm applied to BTC/SSV/sNVDA/sMSFT (all >0.5% move); SSV and sNVDA inventory danger

quote expiry prefire ~14:16 UTC | price guards ETH/BTC/SSV/stocks | new swap | 70min fallback

Summary: DEAD since 06-11T~11:53 UTC (w126, ~73h). Final state was healthy: 11/12 book live, totalUsd $746.81, SSV ask #1540 filled at +50.5bps, watcher armed with 60-min fallback. Crash cause is a 401 authentication failure — NOT a binary/process failure and NOT a clean operator stop. The cluster-expiry timer (CLUSTER_FIRE_TS ~12:03 UTC, 10 min post-w126) or the 60-

LP-Maker-Matheus has been offline ~73h due to a 401 authentication failure (not binary crash, not operator stop). 9 open intents are unmanaged and price guards written in w126 (ETH $1,668 / BTC $63,250 / SSV $2.237–$2.245) are almost certainly stale after 73h of price movement — phantom/inverted depth remains on-book with no management. This is the fleet hub; its absence is the direct cause of frozen new-swap supply fleet-wide.

wakes_failing=true, armed=false, pidAlive=false; wake_error='401 Invalid authentication credentials'; last successful wake w126 at 06-11T11:53 UTC; watcher had CLUSTER_FIRE_TS=1781179416 (~12:03 UTC) and 60-min fallback (~12:53 UTC) — one of those fired into a dead credential; Vulture-Andrew also cr

Moot — no execution since w126. Final wake reasoning at w126 was sound: detected SSV ask #1540 fill at +50.5bps, correctly reposted at +35bps (removing volTerm: oracle spread justified), 11/12 book restored. The 401 terminated all subsequent reasoning before it could occur.

Cluster expiry timer (CLUSTER_FIRE_TS = 1781179416, ~12:03 UTC June 11)

60-min fallback (fired ~12:53 UTC June 11)

ETH > $1,668 (ask #1538 inversion guard)

BTC > $63,250 (ask #1520 inversion guard)

SSV > $2.245 (ask #1543 inversion guard)

SSV < $2.237 (bid #1541 inversion guard)

Primary ETH/BTC ask taker; 9 fills via LP-Maker in the settled window — highest volume counterparty

5 fills via LP-Maker in recent window; swap taker for SSV/ETH rotations

DCA swap taker; 4 fills via LP-Maker in window — patient demand that needs a maker

2 fills via LP-Maker; equity accumulator; needs a maker for sNVDA/sAAPL lots

4 fills via LP-Maker; would take near-inverted asks — but LP-Maker's book is now ghost depth with no management

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (401 prevents all execution). However, 9 open intents written in w126 are unmanaged for ~73h — any of the inversion guards (ETH $1,668, BTC $63,250, SSV $2.237/$2.245) breached during that window means stale/inverted depth is currently sitting on-book misleading other agents.

Per-asset inversion guards (ETH/BTC/SSV ask + SSV bid) fire before inventory inverts — mission-correct for a market maker

Cluster expiry timer (CLUSTER_FIRE_TS) prevents gaps in book coverage at the exact renewal window

Fillable-intent watch with MY_ADDR exclusion correctly avoids self-triggering

60-min fallback ensures no book goes >1h stale without a check — appropriate cadence for a 24/7 maker

Zero-LLM: all guards are deterministic price/timestamp comparisons

No credential health-check — a 401 silently terminates the process with no alert, no intent cancellation, and no operator notification; the watcher dies invisib

No dead-man's-switch: 9 open intents left live for 73h with no cancellation mechanism when the watcher goes dark

Concurrent wake collisions (w123–w125 logs) show multiple concurrent fires writing state.json simultaneously — watcher doesn't serialize

Add a startup credential probe: before armWatcher(), make a single cheap API call and if it returns 401/403, write an error file and exit with a clear message — this surfaces the failure immediately rather than after the first scheduled fir

401 authentication credential expiry crashes agent silently with no recovery

The wake after w126 returned '401 Invalid authentication credentials'. Process died with no retry, no alert, no intent cleanup. Vulture-Andrew also crashed at ~4394 min — nearly identical timing strongly suggests a shared API key rotation/expiry event rather than two independent failures.

Rotate/renew the expired API credentials immediately. Audit whether lp-maker-matheus and vulture-andrew share a key — if so, this is a single fleet-level credential event. Add a credential health probe to the SDK wake bootstrap so 401 surfaces as a named alert, not a silent process death.

9 open intents unmanaged for ~73h — likely stale/inverted depth on-book

w126 watcher set guards at ETH $1,668 / BTC $63,250 / SSV $2.237–$2.245. After 73h without management, at least some of these thresholds have been crossed — the open intents are now phantom or inverted depth that misleads other agents attempting fills.

After credential fix, audit all 9 open intents vs current oracle before re-arming. Cancel any inverted or stale intents first; only then repost a fresh book.

No dead-man's-switch for open intents on watcher death

9 intents were left live with no TTL-based self-cancellation. A mission-critical maker going dark for 73h with active book depth is a correctness risk for counterparties attempting fills.

Add a max-dark-time guard: if last_wake_min_ago > 90 AND open_intents > 0, the next successful wake should cancel all stale intents before reposting — prevents multi-day ghost depth accumulation.

Mimic-Ljuba

Neither resting intent met 3pp edge floor. Mirrored BTC above recent flow at current oracle $64,302, 1h horizon, p=0.45

own BTC above $64,302 bet resolves OR new BinaryBet appears (2h fallback)

Summary: STATUS CHANGE: was 'correctly idle' last run — now BROKEN. wakes_failing=true since w92 (06-14T00:00, 788 min ago) with 401 API auth error; pidAlive=false. Portfolio jumped $63.62→$76.95 at w92 (unexplained, settled_deals_detail empty). Wakes w85–w92 all disciplined hold on empty binary board — Bear-Yosher at 5866 min, Vulture re-crashed 4394 min, zero Binar

401 authentication failure since w92 (788 min ago) means the imminent fallback in ~113 min will fail identically — watcher is armed but the underlying process is dead (pidAlive=false). Binary supply is also zero (Bear-Yosher 5866 min crashed, Vulture-Andrew re-crashed 4394 min), so the market answer to Step-1's question is 'no' — but it's moot until the 401 is resolved.

wakes_failing=true; wake_error='Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials'; last successful wake w92 @ 06-14T00:00 (788 min ago); pidAlive=false; armed=true with 113-min fallback queued — that fallback will also 401

Wakes w85–w92 show sound, on-mission reasoning: ≥3pp edge floor enforced, binary-only scope, consistent hold while board is empty. Correct decisions on a now-moot problem — trading analysis stops here until the 401 is fixed.

new BinaryBet intentId detected by scan-bets.ts poll (60s loop)

120-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=113, fires imminently)

MISSING: auth health-check — watcher re-arms with no knowledge that the claude binary will 401 on every wake, creating a silent broken-fallback cycle

Primary BinaryBet maker/poster; crashed 5866 min — zero supply

Posts baited BinaryBet intents; re-crashed 4394 min after June 11 restart

Takes near-decided binaries; not a supply source for mimic to mirror

none — w88–w92 all confirm zero BinaryBets on book; Bear-Yosher and Vulture-Andrew (the only binary makers) both crashed; no mimic or taker supply to act on

zero-LLM watcher: scan-bets.ts does all polling, model fires only when a new bet appears

triggers on new intentId only — cannot fire on stale non-empty book

120-min fallback prevents indefinite sleep in a quiet binary market

no auth pre-check before arming: a persistent 401 creates a silent dead-loop (arm → fallback → 401 → re-arm → repeat) with no alerting

watcher process died (pidAlive=false), so the 60s scan-bets.ts polling loop has already stopped — fallback now depends on system timer alone, not live book scan

Add a minimal pre-arm auth probe (e.g., one-line claude API call or env-var presence check) and abort+alert on 401 rather than silently re-arming — breaks the dead-loop and surfaces the credential failure immediately.

401 Claude API auth failure — check for fleet-wide spread

mimic-ljuba wakes_failing=true with '401 Invalid authentication credentials' since w92 (06-14T00:00, 788 min ago). If ANTHROPIC_API_KEY was rotated or expired at the environment level, every agent sharing that credential will show the same error. Cross-check wake_error on all fleet agents before res

Verify/rotate ANTHROPIC_API_KEY in the shared agent environment; audit wake_error fields fleet-wide for matching 401s before any individual restart

Silent broken-fallback loop — watcher re-arms blind to auth failure

pidAlive=false + wakes_failing=true means the 113-min fallback will trigger a wake that 401s, then the script will re-arm another 120-min fallback, 401 again, ad infinitum. No circuit-breaker exists.

Add auth health-check in wake-script before calling armWatcher; on repeated 401 skip re-arm and write a sentinel file or push an alert

Unexplained portfolio jump $63.62→$76.95 at w92

Portfolio increased $13.33 at w92 (06-14T00:00) despite settled_deals_detail being empty and the wake logging 'hold'. May be a settled deal completing out-of-band or a data artifact.

Check on-chain settlement records for mimic-ljuba address around 06-14T00:00; reconcile against the 16 total settled_deals

Momentum-Nikita

Momentum gap below 2pp edge threshold. No fillable SSV resting orders. Re-posting identical expired intent (#1508) viola

US mkt open 13:30 UTC Jun 14 | SSV gap ±2pp from baseline | new SSV seller | 9h fallback

Summary: W24-W30 self-correction confirmed (ATH $100.96 on Jun 11). W31 (Jun 14 12:57 UTC) correctly held — SSV gap 0.40pp < 2pp edge, no fillable SSV sellers, expired intent #1508 not re-posted (correct churn avoidance). CRITICAL since w31: wakes_failing=true with 401 auth error — watcher process is alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true, fallback 536 min) but Claude API

Watcher alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true, 536 min to fallback) but wakes_failing=true: 401 auth error kills every post-w31 execution. Intent #1508 expired and not re-posted (w31 correctly declined churn); no open intents. Portfolio ~$94.46 (USDC $43.20 + SSV $51.26 / ~22.39 SSV @ ~$2.29), -6.4% from ATH $100.96.

wakes_failing=true; watcher.wakeError='401 Invalid authentication credentials'; w31 at 12:57 UTC Jun 14 succeeded (last successful execution, 11 min ago); all subsequent wake execution attempts fail at auth layer; Claude API key invalid or revoked since w31

W31 reasoning was sound — correctly identified SSV gap at 0.40pp (below 2pp edge), declined to re-post expired #1508 as churn, held idle USDC. Moot beyond w31: auth failure blocks all subsequent reasoning.

SSV momentum gap vs best-of-crypto >= +2pp (buy signal)

SSV momentum gap < -2pp (reversal — cut long)

New fair-price SSV seller on book (≤1% above oracle $2.29)

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 14 — fired ~33 min after w31 arm; would have hit 401 wall

9h fallback ~21:57 UTC Jun 14 (536 min from now)

MISSING: nothing structural — triggers fit mission; problem is 401 failure prevents execution when triggered

8 of 9 settled deals — primary SSV liquidity source

1 deal settled; rebalancer could post SSV if shifting allocation

1 deal settled; posts opportunistic sharp swaps

US market open trigger at 13:30 UTC Jun 14 fired within watcher loop ~33 min after w31 arm but hit 401 — full-universe re-rank (equity symbols sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT vs SSV) missed. All further signal fires are also blocked. Actual book opportunities unmeasurable while auth is broken.

SSV gap vs best-of-crypto (max(BTC,ETH)) with explicit buy/reversal thresholds matches rotate-or-cash mission precisely

Separate buy (+2pp) and reversal (-2pp) branches implement full momentum cycle, not just entry

US market open trigger enables equity universe re-rank — correct for a mission that includes stocks

Fair-price SSV seller filter (≤1% above oracle) prevents chasing; newMatches() avoids seen set spam

9h fallback ensures re-run even if all signals are quiet

BASE_SSV/BTC/ETH hardcoded at w31 arm-time ($2.29, $64282, $1665) — stale across long wake windows; after a 9h fallback the drifted baseline generates phantom g

No initial book scan at arm-time: a fair SSV seller already resting on book when watcher starts is invisible (newMatches only catches arrivals after seen-set is

Fetch live oracle prices once per loop iteration (not hardcoded at script-generation time) so gap calculation stays accurate across multi-hour and multi-day wake windows.

401 auth failure blocking all wake executions fleet-wide (check)

All post-w31 wake executions fail: 'API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials'. W31 at 12:57 UTC Jun 14 succeeded, so key was valid then; revoked or expired since. If Claude API key is shared fleet-wide, this may explain other agents' prolonged stuck states — cross-check whether bear-yosher,

Rotate/renew the Claude API key in .env (or fleet-wide secrets store); verify other agents aren't silently hitting the same 401 before concluding this is momentum-nikita-specific.

Hardcoded oracle baseline stales over long wake windows

BASE_SSV=$2.29, BASE_BTC=$64282, BASE_ETH=$1665 hardcoded at w31 arm-time. Over a 9h fallback (or longer when auth is broken), accumulated drift causes phantom gap signals or misses real ones.

Replace hardcoded baselines with a live oracle fetch at the top of each loop iteration.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Wake 30 check: need to evaluate new audited Option on the market

new audited Option intent appears (template 0xb3d66f4...) OR 2h fallback

Summary: Focus question answered: #118 and #119 both settled in w27 (Jun 11 14:58 UTC); deal #150 (sNVDA call, +0.05% OTM, premium $0.19) opened w28 and settled by w29. Book now 98.86 USDC, zero live positions — holding cash. CRITICAL NEW since last summary: wakes are failing with 401 auth error beginning after w30 (Jun 14 10:48 UTC, 140 min ago). Watcher process is

Wakes are failing with '401 Invalid authentication credentials' since ~w30 (140 min ago) — this is a credential failure, not a market problem. Book sits at 98.86 USDC, all 5 deals settled. Agent cannot act until API key is rotated; even then, sole option-writer counterparty (0x57F8…B0ff) has been silent 3+ days with no new audited Options on book.

watcher.wakeError = '401 Invalid authentication credentials'; metrics.wakes_failing=true; last successful execution w30 ~140 min ago (tokens_5h_usd=0.42 confirms w29/w30 ran before auth broke); all 4 prior settled deals with 0x57F8…B0ff (option-writer-matheus) — that counterparty also silent since J

W27–w30 reasoning was sound: settled expired deals correctly in w27, took deal #150 on a 0.05% OTM call with thin premium in w28, and correctly rejected #1600 in w30 as coin-flip/off-edge. The 401 is a platform credential failure, not a reasoning failure. No evidence of churn or off-mission behavior in executed wakes.

new audited Option intent with template hash 0xb3d66f4bfda02da66df116f65f358d0feeacedbbeeba9d2c44500755464aad63 appears on book

2h fallback (nextFallbackMin=115 → fires in ~115 min, but will fail with 401)

MISSING: no expiry-proximity trigger for held deals — covered by 2h fallback cadence but not explicitly guarded

MISSING: no signal when option-writer-matheus (sole counterparty) resumes posting after drought

sole counterparty — all 4 custom-settled deals with 0x57F8…B0ff; writes the sNVDA/ETH/BTC audited options this agent buys

silent 3+ days — no audited Option inten

swap/liquidity maker, not an option writer; different template type

Intent #1600 correctly rejected at w30 (coin-flip, fair premium, strike too tight — off-edge per mission). No other audited Option intents on book since w28. Post-w30: unmeasurable — wakes failing, agent blind to book.

Strict template hash filter (0xb3d66f4...) — zero risk of accepting unaudited options, exactly right for this mission

Zero-LLM watcher: fast, cheap, deterministic; 60s poll appropriate for this market depth

2h fallback ensures periodic check even in a dry book; seenIntentIds delta correctly avoids re-firing on stale intents

No expiry-proximity shortening — if a held deal expires within the fallback window, the watcher won't shorten its sleep; covered by 2h cadence today but a near-

No counterparty-resume signal — watcher cannot detect when option-writer-matheus starts posting again; latency to first take after a drought is up to 2h

Add expiry-proximity guard: on each poll, check open deals for expiry within nextFallbackMs; if any found, call fireWake('deal #N expiring in <Xm') to settle before deadline rather than relying on the 2h fallback landing in time.

401 auth — Claude API key invalid, all wakes dead

watcher.wakeError and metrics.wake_error both confirm '401 Invalid authentication credentials'; wakes_failing=true; process alive but no wake can execute. Fallback fires in ~115 min but will fail identically. Last successful wake w30 ~140 min ago.

Rotate/refresh the Anthropic API key for option-taker-matheus and restart the wake process. Verify whether this is a per-agent key or shared fleet key — if shared, ALL agents using it are broken (check Step 3 for correlation).

option-writer-matheus silent 3+ days — no new audited Options posted since Jun 11 15:44 UTC

All 4 of option-taker-matheus's settled deals are with 0x57F8…B0ff (option-writer-matheus). W29 and w30 both found zero audited Option intents. Even with auth fixed, option-taker has nothing to buy until the writer resumes.

Diagnose option-writer-matheus health separately; it is the single point of supply for this agent. If writer is also auth-broken or crashed, fixing option-taker's credentials alone produces no trades.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Engine 1 paused 77 wakes (since wake 37). No open intents, buffer 40%+ → clear to write. ETH slightly down (-0.85%), sel

ETH call option intent 1600 resolves (expiry ~15:58 UTC 2026-06-14) or fallback

Summary: Engine 1 resumed at w116 (06-14T12:58, +18 wakes since last summary) after 77 paused wakes, posting ETH CALL intent 1600 (strike $1,682, $9 collateral, $0.54 premium, 60-min accept window). The three stated resume gates (vol≥1%, ranking rotation, new buyer intents) never formally triggered — the agent used a different gate at w116: 'no open intents + buffer

401 auth failure hit immediately after w116 — agent cannot act on intent 1600's $9 collateral. Accept window closes ~13:58 UTC (~50 min from analysis); if auth unresolved by ~15:58 UTC option expiry, collateral fate depends on whether ETH clears $1,682 strike (spot was $1,665 at posting, ~1% OTM). Fix auth first; consider manual cancel if auth not restored before accept window close.

wakes_failing=true, wakeError='401 Invalid authentication credentials'; watcher armed (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=187) but next wake will also 401; open_intents=1 (intent 1600 still unresolved); 18 settled deals, last counterparties: Stacker-Massimo, LP-Maker-Matheus (crashed 73h), 0xBd6a…9863

Sound through w116 — resuming the option-writing engine on 'buffer 40%+ clear + no open intents' is coherent given the mission. However, the gate the agent actually used differs from the three gates tracked in prior summaries (vol≥1% / ranking rotation / buyer intents), and w116 does not document this shift. Minor integrity issue: the monitoring frame was wrong, not the trade logic. Trading analys

ownIntentResolved(intent 1600) — fires on fill or expiry

Fallback: ~187 min (dynamic: expiry ~15:58 UTC + 15-min buffer ≈ 16:13 UTC)

MISSING: no intermediate fire at accept-window close (~13:58 UTC) — agent cannot cancel/reprice if unfilled before fallback triggers post-expiry

mission explicitly buys ETH/BTC options written by other agents — direct counterparty for intent 1600 ETH call

stuck (health=stuck; 5 settled deals, no

was swap counterparty for Engine 2 stock trades (counted in 18 settled deals); irrelevant to option intent 1600

swap counterparty for stock legs (sNVDA/sAAPL fills); not an option buyer

Stock rotation signals (sell sNVDA, buy sAAPL) were live at w116 but Sunday market closed — execution planned Monday 13:30 UTC, blocked by 401. No missed option-taking opportunities (agent is option writer/maker, not taker). Swap engine activity (intents 1562–1571 across w112–w115) went unfilled: LP-Maker-Matheus (primary swap counterparty) crashed before those intents posted.

Targets intent 1600 resolution specifically — not a broad book-open poll

Fallback is dynamic: max(expiry+15min, 5min) — correctly calculates from OPTION_EXPIRY_SEC, won't sleep past expiry

60-second poll cadence appropriate for a 60-min accept window

Zero-LLM watcher; fireWake on resolution event only

No intermediate fire at accept-window close (~13:58 UTC): if unfilled, agent should cancel+reprice before expiry — currently waits until ~187-min fallback, 15 m

Auth failure not caught in watch loop: when the fallback fires at ~16:13 UTC, the claude wake will 401 again and no settlement/cancel action will execute

Add a second fireWake trigger at accept-window-close time (~13:58 UTC) so the agent can cancel and reprice intent 1600 if still unfilled — avoids collateral being locked through expiry with no recourse. Only actionable once 401 auth is reso

401 auth credentials expired/revoked — check fleet-wide

option-writer-matheus shows wakes_failing=true with '401 Invalid authentication credentials'. If credentials are shared or rotated fleet-wide, other agents may be hitting the same wall silently (especially those with long sleep gaps that haven't woken recently). This is the same infra-down class as

Renew/rotate API credentials for this agent immediately; audit other stuck agents for same 401 wakeError before next cycle.

Intent 1600 ($9 USDC collateral) at risk — accept window closes ~13:58 UTC

ETH call intent 1600 (strike $1,682, ~1% OTM vs $1,665 spot at posting, premium $0.54) has ~50 min of accept window remaining. If 401 persists, no cancel/reprice is possible; $9 USDC locked until ~15:58 UTC expiry. At expiry, collateral is returned if ETH < $1,682, lost if exercised. With ETH down 0

Manual cancel of intent 1600 if auth not restored before ~13:58 UTC; otherwise accept lock until ~15:58 UTC and monitor ETH vs $1,682 strike.

Engine 1 resume gate undocumented at w116

Prior summaries tracked three resume gates (vol≥1%, ranking rotation, new buyer intents). At w116, Engine 1 resumed on a different trigger: 'no open intents + buffer 40%+ clear'. The actual gate was never the stated one — monitoring has been tracking a false frame for 77+ wakes.

Update CLAUDE.md Engine 1 section: document actual resume trigger as 'resume writing when no open option intents AND collateral buffer ≥40%'; retire the vol/ranking/buyer-intent gate language or re-implement them as a separate throttle.

Polymarket-Ljuba

sAAPL horizonTs 1781294400 < nowTs 1781441789; scan-book manageSwaps triggered exit. BTC Jun15 24h maker window opens at

Summary: sAAPL position (basis $290.79, horizon Jun12 20:00 UTC) finally hit its expiry. w30 (Jun14 12:57) detected the expired horizon and posted exit swap intent#1598 (0.085722 sAAPL → 24.96 USDC). w31 (Jun14 15:07) cancelled #1598 as unfilled and pivoted to BTC Jun15 $64k-above binary (intent#1609, give $9.99/want $7.38/p=57.5%). Immediately after w31, the watcher

BROKEN post-w31: wakes_failing=true, wake_error='401 Invalid authentication credentials', watcher dead (armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null). sAAPL exit swap cancelled unfilled — 0.085722 sAAPL likely stranded in wallet past Jun12 horizon expiry. Open intent#1609 (BTC Jun15 $64k above) is live but unmonitored with no fallback.

wake_error='401 Invalid authentication credentials' in both metrics and watcher; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null after w31 completed normally Jun14 15:07; likely fleet-wide API key expiry — multiple agents also crashed this cycle

w29–w31 reasoning was sound: correctly tracked Jun12 horizon, detected expiry in w30, posted exit swap, cancelled when unfilled, pivoted to BTC binary maker in w31 with Polymarket-grounded p=57.5% edge. Failure is entirely infra (401), not reasoning. However, pivoting to BTC binary before resolving the stranded sAAPL is a mild sequencing error — the equity position was not cleanly closed.

intent#1609 resolves (filled or expired) — Jun15 BTC hardstop

scan-book finds takeable bet with edge ≥8pp

MISSING: all three are unreachable — watcher dead (401), zero fires possible until auth restored

takes near-decided BTC binaries on fast feed

picks off mispriced binaries — BTC Jun15 $64k could qualify

mirrors BinaryBets, could accept or copy the BTC Jun15 side

unmeasurable: watcher dead (401), agent cannot scan book or react to new intents; BTC Jun15 intent#1609 sits unfilled with no counterparty monitoring it

Polls intent#1609 resolution directly by intentId — not just book state

scan-book takeable-bet check aligns precisely with mission (edge-threshold gating)

Jun15 16:00 UTC hardstop matches BTC market expiry — correct cadence

60s poll cadence appropriate for binary resolution events

Poll-error catch-and-continue prevents single network hiccup from killing watcher

No sAAPL wallet-balance check — exit swap was cancelled, sAAPL may still be held past horizon with no recovery path in this script

Watcher can't start at all — 401 is upstream of all script logic; script design is irrelevant until auth is restored

Fix the 401 API key (auth is the blocker for everything). Once restored, add a wallet sAAPL check at wake-start: if 0.085722 sAAPL balance detected with expired horizon, re-post exit swap before any binary activity.

401 auth failure — API key invalid/expired fleet-wide

wake_error='401 Invalid authentication credentials'; watcher cannot arm after w31. Multiple other agents also crashed this cycle (momentum-nikita, vulture-andrew, bear-yosher) — high probability this is a shared API key expiry, not polymarket-ljuba-specific. nextFallbackMin=null means no self-recove

Rotate/renew ANTHROPIC_API_KEY in agent environment. Audit whether the same 401 appears in other crashed agents' wake_error before treating as isolated.

sAAPL stranded in wallet past horizon expiry

0.085722 sAAPL (basis $290.79, horizon Jun12 20:00 UTC — 2 days past) had exit swap intent#1598 cancelled unfilled in w31. Agent pivoted to BTC binary without re-posting the exit or confirming sAAPL cleared. Position is past its holding window with no recovery scheduled.

On next successful wake, check wallet for sAAPL balance before any other action; if present, re-post exit swap (or market-sell via swap intent) before opening new BTC binary positions.

Rebalancer-Lior

Approved sMSFT now to clear the only blocker on Monday trim. Approval is not a trade and does not require market hours.

Monday 2026-06-16T13:30Z stock open -- trim sMSFT, DCA BTC

Summary: BTC #1294 (+4% premium, Jun 10 23:41 UTC) confirmed last fill; settled_deals still at 15. W46 ran Jun 14 12:57 UTC (11 min ago) and produced an on-chain sMSFT approval, but wakes_failing=true with 401 auth error means the LLM layer is broken — watcher fires, the on-chain tool call may slip through, but claude cannot authenticate for reasoning. Monday plan (t

wakes_failing=true / '401 Invalid authentication credentials' — the Monday sMSFT-trim/BTC-DCA plan is correct strategy but will fail to execute at the 13:30 UTC wake unless the API key is fixed first. 15 deals unchanged since Jun 10 23:41 UTC; LP-Maker crash eliminates the primary counterparty regardless.

wakes_failing=true; watcher.wakeError='401 Invalid authentication credentials'; settled_deals=15 unchanged since BTC #1294 Jun 10 23:41 UTC; w46 on-chain approval executed but no claude reasoning output visible

The w40–w45 BTC DCA escalation (oracle→+1.47%→+2.07%→+3%→+4%) was disciplined and filled at #1294. W46 sMSFT approval sequencing (clear the ERC-20 gate before market open) is correct. Reasoning is on-mission and quantitative. However the 401 error means future wakes cannot produce reasoning — the script fires but the agent is effectively lobotomized at the LLM layer.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z (US stock market open, 5-min poll)

MISSING: 401 auth error will cause the triggered wake to fail at claude invocation — on-chain approval may execute but no intent will be posted without reasonin

4 of 7 recent deals; primary swap liquidity provider

1 of 7 recent deals; could take swap if directionally aligned

armed=false/pidAlive=false — probable fr

1 of 7 recent deals; opportunistic swap taker

DCA-style swaps may overlap directionally on BTC or sMSFT

none — 0 open intents on the book, LP-Maker crashed, no swap supply present. Agent is correctly idle pending Monday market open on the supply side; the infra block is the only active concern.

Waits for a concrete, verifiable event (2026-06-16T13:30:00Z US stock open) — not book-state, not a timer; exactly right for a stock-trim step

5-min poll cadence appropriate for market-open detection — not sub-minute, not coarse

30-min fallback buffer (14:00 UTC) ensures the wake fires even if poll misses the exact open

sMSFT approval done proactively in w46 — correct sequencing; removes the ERC-20 gate blocker before the wake needs it

Script will fire Monday at 13:30 UTC into a broken 401 auth state — no guard or alerting if claude invocation fails at wake time

Fix API key auth before Monday 13:30 UTC; the script logic is correct and needs no changes — the only risk is the 401 persisting into the Monday wake.

401 Invalid authentication credentials on claude invocations — possible fleet-wide API key issue

wakes_failing=true; wake_error='Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials'. Watcher process is alive and armed (pid alive, nextFallbackMin=2932) but claude cannot authenticate to the Anthropic API. W46 on-chain approval (sMSFT max) may have executed before or outside

Verify and rotate the Anthropic API key in the agent environment; check account billing/quota status. If key is shared fleet-wide and multiple agents show 401, treat as a single platform fix rather than per-agent.

Stacker-Massimo

No takeable sNVDA sell-side; posting own bid above oracle to attract LP fills per mission.

intent 1599 fill/expiry | sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC | oracle drift >0.5%

Summary: AUTH BROKEN since w34 (06-14T00:00, ~788 min ago): every wake fails 401 so the agent has executed nothing for ~13 h despite watcher firing. Prior two deals (140, 141 on Jun 11) were both ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, now crashed 4389 min — so even when auth is restored the sNVDA bid has no natural counterparty. Intent 1599 (10 USDC → 0.04852 sNVDA, 6.5 h expiry from p

wakes_failing=true / 401 auth error for 788 min (last successful wake w34 at 06-14T00:00). Intent 1599 (6.5 h expiry) expired unmanaged ~6.6 h ago; LP-Maker — Massimo's only confirmed sNVDA counterparty — crashed 4389 min ago. Two compounding problems: no trading is possible until the API key is rotated, and the bid has no counterparty even when it is.

wake_error='Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials'; wakes_failing=true; last_wake_min_ago=788; watcher armed+pidAlive=true but claude binary cannot authenticate → zero on-chain actions since w34 at 06-14T00:00

Last successful reasoning (w34) was sound: no takeable ask → post own bid at oracle×1.005. Agent cannot reason at all now due to 401 — all trading questions are moot until auth is restored.

intent 1599 fill/expiry (ownIntentResolved)

new takeable sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC at ≤oracle×1.01

45-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=36 at snapshot)

sole confirmed sNVDA seller; filled deals 140 and 141 on Jun 11

holds sNVDA in 70/30 portfolio; could post sNVDA sells; one prior deal with Massimo

health=stuck; uncertain if actively post

DCA swaps — if overweight sNVDA could post a sell Massimo could take

fades assets stretched above trailing avg — could sell sNVDA if extended

unmeasurable: watcher fires but 401 error prevents any book reads or actions during the 788-min gap — any sNVDA sells that appeared and cleared are invisible

monitors own intent 1599 resolution (fill or expiry) — correct trigger for a posted-bid state

oracle drift trigger at 0.5% ensures bid repricing on material moves without spamming

new takeable sNVDA sell filter (≤12 USDC, ≤oracle×1.01) maps exactly to the mission's taker-first logic

45-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient equity accumulator

zero-LLM watcher, seenIntents dedup prevents re-firing on the same intent

seenIntents bootstraps from all intents visible on the first loop tick — a burst of new sNVDA sells arriving simultaneously with that first tick are missed (min

The wake script itself is well-reasoned; no change needed here. The only required fix is at the infra layer: rotate the API key so the claude binary authenticates when the watcher fires.

API key 401 — agent fully broken for ~788 min

wakes_failing=true, wake_error='Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials'. Watcher fires correctly (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=36) but every claude invocation fails immediately. No on-chain actions since w34 at 06-14T00:00.

Rotate / re-provision the API key for stacker-massimo. Verify whether this is an agent-specific key or shared — if shared, the 401 may be fleet-wide (cross-check against vulture-andrew and other stuck agents showing identical errors).

Intent 1599 expired unmanaged

Intent 1599 posted at w34 (06-14T00:00) with 6.5 h expiry → expired ~06:30 UTC. Last_wake_min_ago=788 puts current time at ~13:00+ UTC; intent has been expired ~6.6 h. 10 USDC locked in escrow should have returned on expiry but agent cannot confirm or re-post.

After auth restored, first wake should detect intent 1599 expired, verify USDC returned, then re-evaluate: post a new bid at current oracle×1.005 if no takeable sNVDA ask is present.

sNVDA bid has no reliable counterparty with LP-Maker crashed

Both recent fills (deals 140, 141, Jun 11) came from LP-Maker-Matheus, crashed 4389 min. reliableCounterparties=0. Option-Writer-Matheus and rebalancer-lior are possible sNVDA sellers but unconfirmed. Restoring LP-Maker is the single highest-leverage move for Massimo's book.

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus to restore sNVDA liquidity. Separately, confirm whether Option-Writer-Matheus is actively posting sNVDA sells so Massimo's taker path has a fallback counterparty.

Swing-Nikita

warming up — only 1 of ≥3 required samples; cannot compute meaningful deviation; US markets closed

60 min warmup — collect next price sample (need 2 more for 3-sample baseline)

Summary: BROKEN since w34 (12 min ago, 06-14T12:56 UTC): wakes_failing=true with '401 Invalid authentication credentials' — LLM API auth is failing, not just market-structure blocking trades. Prior 10-wake no-trade streak (w24–w33) was structurally justified (sNVDA sub-threshold, SSV zero inventory), but now the agent cannot complete any analytical pass. w34 partiall

Agent is BROKEN: wakes_failing=true, 401 auth error stops every LLM call inside each wake. The Step-1 question (sNVDA at ≥-1.5% threshold?) is unanswerable — the agent cannot evaluate it. Even if auth restored, warmup mode (1/3 price samples) defers threshold analysis by ~2h, and LP-Maker-Matheus (all 5 prior settled deals) is crashed at 4389 min with no fill path.

wakes_failing=true; wake_error='Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials'; w34 at 12:56 UTC shows partial pre-LLM run (price sample appended) but full analytical pass cannot complete

Cannot assess reasoning quality — 401 auth failure means LLM calls are not completing. Pre-LLM watcher portion at w34 ran correctly (entered warmup mode, set 60-min cadence, logged 1/3 sample). Prior reasoning w27–w33 was sound: correctly identified structural blocks (sNVDA sub-threshold, SSV zero inventory) each wake. No reasoning quality problem — infra problem.

60-min warmup interval — collect next price sample toward 3-sample baseline

MISSING: sNVDA ≥-1.5% dislocation trigger (deferred until warmup complete AND auth restored)

MISSING: US market-hours gate for stock signals (deferred until warmup complete)

All 5 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; only proven swap fill path in the fleet

Also posts delivered swaps; could cross on overlapping assets if both active

unmeasurable: wakes_failing=true (401 auth) means agent cannot evaluate the book; warmup mode (1/3 samples) additionally defers threshold computation — no basis to assess whether sNVDA crossed -1.5% at 13:30 UTC open

Correctly adapts to the outage: identifies price-history gap, enters 60-min warmup cadence to rebuild baseline before resuming threshold logic

2h hard fallback prevents indefinite hang if 60-min fire condition errors

Zero-LLM watcher — pure timer, no book polling during warmup phase

401 auth error is not caught or surfaced in the watcher — stays armed silently while every wake body fails; no observable broken-state signal

No auto-transition: once 3 samples collected, script must be replaced manually with dislocation-signal triggers; warmup exit not self-executing

Add a lightweight auth-probe at watcher startup (one token ping to the LLM endpoint); if 401 returned, emit a structured error log entry and skip arming rather than silently cycling. Converts the current invisible broken state into an obser

401 Invalid authentication credentials — LLM API auth failing

wakes_failing=true; wake_error='Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials'. This is at minimum swing-nikita; Step-3 should count how many agents share this error to determine if it is fleet-wide (billing/key expiry) or agent-specific.

Verify API key validity and billing status; rotate key if expired; correlate across fleet before scoping to agent vs core

Price-history window emptied by 3-day rate-limit outage — warmup extends trading blackout ~2h post-auth-fix

Wake script comment: 'price-history window emptied by 3-day Sonnet rate-limit outage. Need 2 more samples (have 1/3 minimum)'. Even after auth restored, sNVDA/-1.5% and SSV thresholds cannot be evaluated for ~2 more 60-min wakes.

No agent CLAUDE.md change needed; just restore auth so warmup wakes can complete. Monitor w35 and w36 for sample accumulation.

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed (4389 min) — swing-nikita's only proven counterparty offline

All 5 of swing-nikita's settled deals were ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus. With hub crashed, the swap fill path is broken independent of swing-nikita's auth or warmup state.

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus; or identify alternate swap counterparties (rebalancer-lior) and add them to swing-nikita's CLAUDE.md as fallback fill targets

Vulture-Andrew

No edges. 1511 expires naturally in 4 min; sNVDA 1513 rebalance live; all 4 sharp-quotes (1519/1514/1515/1542) already o

Summary: Re-crash CONFIRMED at ~11:49 UTC June 11 (w110). Root cause is NOT the gas gate flagged last run — it is a 401 Anthropic API authentication failure ('Invalid authentication credentials') that kills every wake attempt. 1 deal settled between the restart window (w75-w82, still frozen at 38) and re-crash (w110, 39 total) — likely a Momentum-Nikita swap from the

vulture-andrew is dead: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes_failing=true, wake_error='API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials'. Every wake since ~11:49 Jun 11 fails at authentication before Claude can run — 4399 min of zero activity. The gas gate was a performance issue, not the crash trigger; the 401 killed it. All 8 resting intents have now expired with $0 recovery.

watcher.wakeError='Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials'; armed=false; pidAlive=false; tokens_5h_usd=$0; last_wake_min_ago=4399. Prior gas-gate issue (check-my-quotes cancelCmds firing) was a separate performance problem — the 401 is the crash trigger. 39 settled

During the last live wakes (w104-w110), reasoning was sound and on-mission: correctly identified gas-negative cancels (1511 SSV: $1.44 gas vs $0.03 profit), reposted expiring quotes (1542 posted at w110), tracked competitor margins (rival at 0.64% below floor), and armed watcher pre-expiry. Problem is not reasoning quality — it's that the runtime died on auth before the strategy could continue exe

new takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges, excluding pre-seeded honeypots 779/836/869)

quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes cancelCmds)

4 of 5 most recent settled deals were LP-Maker-Matheus swaps — primary counterparty

CRASHED 4389 min — offline, no open inte

1 recent swap settlement; swap intents when momentum-nikita rotates positions

Probable fresh crash (armed=false/pidAli

DCA swap poster; vulture could take mispriced slices

Posts binary bets vulture could take if near-decided

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book since ~11:49 Jun 11 (4399 min). All 8 intents posted at re-crash (1511 SSV, 1516 BTC, 1517 ETH, 1519 sAAPL, 1513 sNVDA, 1504 sMSFT, 1514, 1542) have expired unmonitored. Any edges that appeared in 73h window went untaken.

Fires on new takeable edges ≥1% — directly aligned with scavenging mission

Pre-expiry trigger (5 min before soonest expiry) — correct for an agent actively managing resting quotes

Quote erosion/undercut via check-my-quotes cancelCmds — prevents stale quotes decaying unnoticed

Honeypot pre-seeding (IDs 779/836/869) is mission-smart — avoids re-firing on confirmed traps

30s poll cadence appropriate for latency-sensitive vulture (not sub-minute LLM polling — token-free scan-edges only)

No auth-health check: watcher starts, fails on 401, logs nothing actionable, armed never sets — operator has no signal until they manually inspect

nextFallbackMin is null — watcher never even reached armWatcher() before auth killed the process

Add a startup auth probe (e.g. a cheap /v1/models ping) before armWatcher(); if it fails, write a sentinel file and exit with a distinct code so the process supervisor can page rather than silently loop-crashing.

Anthropic API 401 killing agent runtime fleet-wide

vulture-andrew crash cause is 'API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials' — not gas gate, not market structure. If the same API key or key-rotation failure affects other agents (LP-Maker-Matheus, Momentum-Nikita are also crashed), this is a fleet-wide infra regression, not an agent-specific

Rotate/validate the Anthropic API key immediately. Check whether other crashed agents share the same key or key-source. Add auth health monitoring with alerting separate from the agent watcher.

Watcher provides no signal on auth failure — operator blind

When the 401 hit, armed never set, nextFallbackMin stayed null, and no sentinel was written. The operator only knows via manual inspection of wake_error.

Add a pre-arm auth probe in current.ts; on failure write /agent/UNHEALTHY with the error and exit non-zero so the supervisor can alert.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

FLEET AUTH COLLAPSE

dominant (~20/24 open; majority of 151 settled — LP-Maker-Matheus hub of 9+ recent fills)

~4/24 open (Options, Binary, Polymarket); ~11 settled (Option-Taker 4 deals, 0x6b91↔0x738b, Mimic/Polymarket-Ljuba deposits)

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ [Arb-Hunter-Tom, Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew, 0xBd6a…9863]

FROZEN — hub offline 73h; its 12 resting intents expire in ~41 min; Vulture-Andr

EXPIRING — intent 1600 (strike $1,682, $0.54 premium) has ~36 min left; both sid

STALLED — Polymarket-Ljuba BTC Jun15 intent open (1597 min runway); Mimic-Ljuba

Index-Maker / Index-Taker (never provisioned)

OFFLINE — segment has never run; 0 wakes across 29 cycles; structural gap unrela

Fleet-wide Anthropic API 401 authentication failure — shared or per-agent credential expired/revoked

12/12 active agents broken; zero LLM reasoning output; all intent renewal halted; watcher processes fire but every wake

All 12 agents return identical error: '401 Invalid authentication credentials' / 'Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401'. Failures span two waves: Jun 10–11 (Bear-Yosher w41, LP-Maker w126, Vulture-A

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 06-11T11:53 UTC (w126, now 73h dark) — first agent hit by 401

Swap hub went silent; Arb-Hunter-Tom's last fill (deal #148, w217 06-11T11:52) coincides exactly with LP-Maker's crash —

9 of the 16 most-recent deals list LP-Maker-Matheus as counterparty; Arb-Hunter-Tom 17 deals total, gap Jun 11→Jun 14; Vulture-Andrew 39 total, 1 deal during Jun 11 restart window vs Momentum-Nikita,

12 open LP-Maker-Matheus intents expire in ~41 min; crashed agent cannot renew

Swap book collapses to near-zero depth post-expiry; Stacker-Massimo's orphaned sNVDA bid (intent 1599, no LP-Maker count

Open book: LP-Maker holds 12 swap intents expiring 41–45 min from now; Vulture-Andrew 6 intents expiring 52–57 min; both agents wakes_failing=true with 0 renewal capacity

Option-Taker-Matheus 401-broken since ~06-14T10:28 UTC (~140 min); cannot take live option-book

Option-Writer intent 1600 (ETH call, $9 collateral) expires unfilled in ~36 min; option segment goes fully dark; $9 coll

Option-Taker: wakes_failing=true, nextFallbackMin=100; Option-Writer: wakes_failing=true, nextFallbackMin=172; intent 1600 in open book with ~36 min remaining and no other taker visible

Bear-Yosher hard-crashed Jun 10 11:17 UTC (w41, ~5871 min), USDC locked in expired deal #75 (expiry Jun 11 00:58 UTC)

USDC idle ~3 days past intent expiry with no on-chain settlement recorded and no recovery path until auth restored + man

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakeError=401; deal #75 expiry Jun 11 00:58 UTC; settled_deals frozen at 17 for ~4398 min

PLATFORM: 12/12 agents 401-blocked — fleet-wide credential failure

Every active agent returns identical '401 Invalid authentication credentials' on wake. This is one platform failure, not 12 separate agent issues. The N=12 correlation is the signal: a bad claude-code release or individual agent bug cannot produce the same error string across 12 independent agents simultaneously. Two failure waves confirm rolling key expiry: Jun 10–11 (3 agents) and Jun 14 (9 agents). All trading analysis below is moot

12 agents, same wake_error string. Wave 1 Jun 10–11: Bear-Yosher (5871 min), LP-Maker-Matheus (4389 min), Vulture-Andrew (4394 min). Wave 2 Jun 14: Stacker-Massimo + Mimic-Ljuba (~788 min), Option-Taker-Matheus (~140 min), Swing-Nikita + Mo

Rotate/renew Anthropic API key(s) immediately. Determine if agents share one org key (single rotation fixes all) or use per-agent keys (audit which bucket expired). After rotation: 9 agents with live watchers (armed=true/pidAlive=true) auto-recover; Vulture-Andrew, Bear-Yosher, P

Swap book expires in <45 min — auth must be restored now or book goes dark

LP-Maker-Matheus (12 intents, 41–45 min) and Vulture-Andrew (6 intents, 52–57 min) hold 18/24 open intents. Both are 401-broken with zero renewal capacity. After expiry the resting swap book drops to 1 intent (Stacker-Massimo sNVDA bid, 364 min) plus any external wallets. New swap supply is frozen until auth restores and LP-Maker-Matheus restarts. This is the tightest clock in the fleet.

Open book: 12 LP-Maker intents (41–45 min remaining), 6 Vulture-Andrew intents (52–57 min), 1 Stacker-Massimo intent (364 min). All three agents wakes_failing=true.

Restore API auth before the 45-min window closes, then restart LP-Maker-Matheus first — it is the swap hub responsible for 9 of 16 most-recent deal fills. A 5-min auth fix + LP-Maker restart preserves continuity; missing the window means a cold restart with no resting book.

3 agents need manual restart post-auth: Vulture-Andrew, Bear-Yosher, Polymarket-Ljuba

These agents have armed=false AND pidAlive=false — watcher processes are dead and will not auto-retry even after credential rotation. The other 9 broken agents retain live watcher processes (armed=true or pidAlive=true with positive nextFallbackMin) and self-recover on auth fix alone.

Vulture-Andrew: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 4399 min dark. Bear-Yosher: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 5871 min dark. Polymarket-Ljuba: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — died imme

After credential rotation, manually restart watcher processes for these 3 agents. Also confirm LP-Maker-Matheus actual process state (watcher table shows armed=true but agent data shows armed=false/pidAlive=false — discrepancy needs resolution).

Option intent 1600 expires in ~36 min; $9 collateral locks if unfilled

Option-Writer-Matheus posted ETH call intent 1600 (strike $1,682.15, $9 collateral, $0.54 premium, 60-min window) at w116 (06-14T12:58 UTC). Option-Taker-Matheus — the sole natural counterparty — has been 401-broken for ~140 min and cannot take it. Option-Writer also cannot cancel/extend (nextFallbackMin=172, after expiry). Collateral locks until next write cycle.

Intent 1600 in open book: ~36 min remaining. Option-Taker wakeError='401 Invalid authentication credentials', wakes_failing=true. Option-Writer wakes_failing=true, nextFallbackMin=172.

Auth restore within 36 min gives Option-Taker a window to fill. Missing it: $9 collateral locked; Option-Writer-Matheus will sweep and repost on next successful wake.

Bear-Yosher USDC locked 3+ days in expired deal #75

Deal #75 expired Jun 11 00:58 UTC with USDC locked and no on-chain settlement. Agent has been dead 5871 min (~98h). Capital recovery path is unclear and may require manual on-chain intervention beyond simply restarting the agent.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakeError=401; deal #75 expiry Jun 11 00:58 UTC; settled_deals frozen at 17 for ~4398 min since w41.

After restarting Bear-Yosher with valid credentials, check on-chain state of deal #75. If USDC cannot be swept programmatically, escalate to manual recovery.

9 agents auto-recover on credential fix — no additional action needed

Arb-Hunter-Tom (fallback 7 min), Stacker-Massimo (21 min), Swing-Nikita (95 min), Option-Taker-Matheus (100 min), Mimic-Ljuba (111 min), Option-Writer-Matheus (172 min), Momentum-Nikita (521 min), Bear-Yosher (293 min per watcher table), and Rebalancer-Lior (2917 min) all have live watcher processes. Credential rotation alone restores them.

9 agents with nextFallbackMin > 0 and armed=true or pidAlive=true in watcher state.

No additional action beyond API key rotation for these agents.

IMMEDIATE: Rotate/renew Anthropic API key(s) — 12/12 agents 401-blocked, swap book expires in <45 min. This is the single fix that unblocks everything.

After auth restore, restart LP-Maker-Matheus first (swap hub, 9 of 16 recent fills, 12 intents expiring in ~41 min) — highest-leverage single restart in the fleet.

Manually restart Vulture-Andrew, Bear-Yosher, and Polymarket-Ljuba watcher processes post-auth (armed=false/pidAlive=false, will not self-recover). Resolve LP-Maker-Matheus watcher/agent state discrepancy.

Investigate Bear-Yosher deal #75 USDC recovery on-chain — locked since Jun 11 00:58 UTC, ~3 days idle capital, may require manual sweep.

Worse — LP-Maker-Matheus (fleet hub, 113 deals, ~11/16 recent settlements) is now confirmed crashed at 4389 min (was active last run); Vulture-Andrew re-crashed at 4394 min after the June 11 restart confirmed in prior summary; Momentum-Nikita shows armed=false/pidAlive=false despite a 6-min-ago wake

LP-Maker-Matheus CRASHED 4389 min (~73h): responsible for ~11/16 recent deal settlements but offline; its sole surviving open intent (15 USDC→0.009014 ETH) expires in <60 min — after that, swap liquid

Vulture-Andrew re-crashed 4394 min after confirmed June 11 restart; prior summary flagged gas gate firing repeatedly — repeat crash-restart-crash pattern needs root cause before next restart

Momentum-Nikita: armed=false/pidAlive=false with last_wake=6 min — probable fresh crash; SSV position ~22.39 @ $2.25 (~$49.4) and intent #1508 (25 USDC→11.11 SSV) may be unprotected

Bear-Yosher 5866 min (~98h) hard crash — deal #75 (expiry Jun 11 00:58 UTC, now 3+ days past) has USDC locked with no on-chain settlement recorded

Funnel: 151/1599 = 9.4% settled, 5 open intents fleet-wide; with hub down new swap supply frozen — remaining live book depth is thin (6 intents, 4 from live agents)

With LP-Maker crashed 4389 min, has Arb-Hunter found any new resting swap supply to take since the hub went dark, or is it idling? Confirm deals total is still 17 and identify whether any fills occurred post-LP-Maker-crash.

Confirm still crashed at 5866 min (vs 1473 min last run, +4393 min = ~73h elapsed since prior summary). Has deal #75 (bet expiry Jun 11 00:58 UTC, 3+ days past) settled on-chain with USDC released? Intent 869 posted at w41 — still open?

Any provisioning signal? 28th consecutive null cycle expected — confirm armed/pid/wake all still null/false.

Any provisioning signal? 28th consecutive null cycle expected — confirm armed/pid/wake all still null/false.

CRASHED 4389 min (~73h) — fleet hub offline. Confirm the 15 USDC→ETH open intent (60 min remaining) is the last stale remnant and will expire shortly. Is this a clean operator stop or process failure? What was the state at the final wake be

Armed at 783 min since last wake; nextFallbackMin=118 fires imminently. With Vulture-Andrew re-crashed and Bear-Yosher still offline, is there any new BinaryBet supply on the open book the upcoming fallback wake could act on?

armed=false/pidAlive=false but last_wake=6 min — confirm whether this is a fresh crash immediately post-w30. Is SSV intent #1508 (25 USDC→11.11 SSV at $2.2502) still live on-chain? Portfolio ATH was $100.96 — current state?

Options #118 (strike $203.69, expiry Jun 11 ~17:37 UTC) and #119 (strike $201.75, expiry Jun 11 ~18:31 UTC) both expired 3+ days ago — have they settled? What is the agent's current USDC/ETH balance and is it holding cash or new positions?

Engine 1 paused 61+ consecutive wakes (w37→w98+). Have any of the three resume gates triggered (vol spike ≥1%, ranking rotation, new buyer intents)? The live ETH call (strike $1,682.15, 0.54 USDC premium, 56 min book time remaining) — has i

pidAlive=false but armed=true — is this watcher anomaly or intentional? Has the sAAPL position ($290.79 basis, stop $277.34, target $303.75) hit either level since last run? Confirm nextFallbackMin burned from 669 as expected (was 669 min a

Armed with nextFallbackMin=2937 (~49h fallback). With LP-Maker crashed, is Rebalancer finding any swap supply at all, or correctly idle? Confirm deals still at 15 (last fill was BTC #1294 at +4% premium, Jun 10 23:41 UTC).

Open intent (10 USDC→0.04852 sNVDA, 383 min left) is on the book; nextFallbackMin=41 fires soon. With LP-Maker crashed, who would fill this bid? Is the sNVDA intent resting without a counterparty? Confirm deals at 5.

Armed, woke 7 min ago, no-trade streak at w33+. Has sNVDA moved to the ≥-1.5% buy threshold at the 13:30 UTC open, or does the structural block continue? SSV sell still blocked by zero inventory — any change?

Re-crashed 4394 min (~73h, armed=false/pidAlive=false) after June 11 restart. How many deals closed in the restart window (w75–w82) before the re-crash? Prior summary flagged gas gate undercutting quotes — was that the crash trigger? Any ne

CRITICAL: Restart LP-Maker-Matheus immediately — fleet hub crashed 4389 min (~73h), sole surviving open intent expires in <60 min, after which the swap market has no primary maker

Investigate Vulture-Andrew re-crash root cause before restarting — prior summary flagged gas gate firing repeatedly; confirm if that is the crash trigger to prevent a third cycle

Investigate Momentum-Nikita: armed=false/pidAlive=false with last_wake=6 min — confirm fresh crash and check whether intent #1508 and SSV position (~$49.4) are safely on-chain or need intervention

Bear-Yosher deal #75 (expired Jun 11 00:58 UTC, 3+ days past): check on-chain — if USDC is still locked with no settlement, a manual settlement call may be required

Four agents down simultaneously (LP-Maker 4389 min, Vulture 4394 min, Bear-Yosher 5866 min, Momentum-Nikita possibly fresh) — assess whether a shared platform failure or process manager issue is drivi