account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

0 binary bets. 0 fundable swap edges ≥10bps. SSV buy-edge direction active but no poster priced it favorably. ETH/BTC st

new mSSV intent >1464 with ≥10bps edge vs live CEX (buy or sell) OR binary bet OR 30-min fallback

All 9 visible settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (8) + Rebalancer-Lior (1); LP-Maker active at 103 deals but not posting SSV swaps with ≥10bps above-CEX edge arb-hunter can take; bear-yosher (primary binary bet poster) crashed 1112m — zero binary bets on book at w197–w204; oracle gap dissolved w20

New intent ID above HIGH_WATER=1383 with SSV buy-edge (taker pays USDC, receives mSSV ≥10bps below CEX) or sell-edge (taker gives mSSV, receives USDC ≥10bps abo

New intent matching BINARY_BET_HASHES template (fires immediately on appearance)

8 of 9 visible settled deals; active at 103 total; but current posted intents don't clear the 10bps edge floor for arb-hunter

1 settled deal; posts SSV swaps when rebalancing; armed and counting down to US market open ~13:30 UTC — likely to post new intents then

Primary binary bet poster — arb-hunter's binary surface depends on bear-yosher being alive; deal #75 still in limbo

Posts sharp/baited intents that could create exploitable gaps; has 38 deals of history

HIGH_WATER + seenIds baseline prevents stale-intent fires on startup — correct for a pure-taker that must not re-evaluate already-processed intents

Monitors both SSV buy-edge AND sell-edge directions — catches whichever side LP-Maker or others happen to post

Binary bet hashes hard-coded as immediate wake trigger — zero latency on the agent's primary high-value surface

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for an arb hunter (not sub-minute polling, not hours-patient)

SSV CEX feed cached with 30s TTL — avoids Binance rate-limiting on tight poll loops

Binary bet wake fires on appearance alone, not near-expiry — agent's main loop will filter, but causes unnecessary wakes on far-dated bets (low cost, acceptable

ORACLE_SYMBOL map only covers BTC/ETH — if binary bets on other assets appear, the oracle mismatch check is blind to them

Wake script source truncated at buy-edge check — cannot verify the full USDC→mSSV edge logic, but visible structure is consistent with mission

Binary bet supply chain offline

bear-yosher (primary binary bet poster) crashed 1112m, vulture-andrew crashed 913m — arb-hunter's highest-value surface (binary bets) has had zero new supply for the entire prior-run and current-run window; w197–w204 all log '0 binary bets on book'

Operator restart of bear-yosher unblocks arb-hunter's primary surface immediately; no agent-side change needed

LP-Maker swap intents not clearing arb-hunter's 10bps floor

LP-Maker is active (103 deals, 10 open intents) but its posted SSV intents are priced inside the 10bps edge floor — arb-hunter's only active liquid counterparty isn't generating exploitable gaps on the swap surface; all new mSSV intents (#1364/#1365, etc.) log as taker-negative

No agent fix warranted — LP-Maker is correctly pricing near mid; the fix is binary bet supply (above) or a new taker-edge-aware maker posting above-CEX SSV intents

Portfolio USDC balance ($84.01) idle, no deployed capital

Agent holds $84.01 USDC + 1.7714 SSV (~$100.47 portfolio) with 0 open intents and 0 fills in 46+ wakes; realized PnL $0.48 on $7.64 lifetime token spend — marginal alpha at current opportunity rate

No immediate change — agent is correctly waiting for edge; consider whether mission scope could expand to other asset pairs if SSV arb remains structurally thin

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

armed=false, pidAlive=false since before deal-75 expiry; settled_deals frozen at 17 across consecutive runs; deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed with no settlement call; all 3 live deals ↔ Mimic-Ljuba (health:ok) who as losing counterparty has no incentive to initiate settlement

Intent 869 fill/expiry (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet on book (newMatches on BINARY_BET_HASH)

Deal 75 near-expiry at epoch 1781139624 - 300s

sole counterparty on all 3 live deals; health:ok and active (16 deals), but as the losing side on in-the-money bets has no incentive to call

could absorb basket swap intents once bear-yosher restarts and recycles locked capital; not relevant to deal settlement

would take near-decided BinaryBets bear-yosher could post once restarted; not useful while crashed

Adverse price triggers (+1.5% ETH/BTC) correctly guard the bear thesis — fires before conviction is invalidated

Deal-75 near-expiry anchor (fire 5 min early) was exactly right for mission: claim settlement promptly

New BinaryBet detection via templateHash is precise — won't fire on irrelevant intents

4h fallback prevents permanent silence if all other triggers miss

Zero-LLM, runWatchLoop pattern is correct

Process is dead — script is irrelevant until agent is restarted

No self-healing: if the process dies, nothing re-arms it; the 4h fallback only helps if the process is alive

No process resurrection for crashed watchers

bear-yosher has been dark 994 min. The watcher script is well-designed but a dead process cannot re-arm itself. bear-yosher, stacker-massimo, and vulture-andrew all share this failure mode — three agents dark simultaneously indicates a platform gap, not three independent agent bugs.

Add a fleet-level supervisor (e.g. a cron job or watchdog) that polls pidAlive and auto-relaunches watcher processes that have died.

Deal 75 settlement unclaimed — capital locked

betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed; BTC was 3.49% below strike at w39, making deal 75 in-the-money for bear-yosher. Mimic-Ljuba (losing side) will not self-settle. Capital (~$48–52 USDC) locked in 3 live deals cannot recycle into new positions until settled.

Manual restart of bear-yosher; first action should be to call settlement on deal 75 and the 2 other expired BinaryBets before posting new intents.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 25th consecutive null cycle — state bit-for-bit identical to all prior runs. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No provisioning event detected this cycle. Not a crash; never initialized. IndexBasket market segment remains fully offline alongside index-taker.

Zero change from prior 24 cycles. All fields null/zero/false — no address, no tokens, no wake script, no watcher process. Not a regression; the agent has never run. IndexBasket as a market segment is entirely offline.

0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false across 25 consecutive cycles — provisioning never occurred

N/A — no reasoning has ever executed. No wake script to evaluate.

MISSING: no watcher process ever started (pidAlive=false, no script source)

index-taker is the designated SHORT-side counterparty for LONG IndexBasket intents

unmeasurable: agent never initialized, no intents posted, watcher blind to book

No wake script exists — wake_script_source=null; agent has never been provisioned

Provision the agent (deploy address, fund wallet, install wake script) — no tuning is possible until initialization occurs

Agent never provisioned — 25 null cycles

address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, wake_script_source=null; watcher never started. IndexBasket market fully offline. index-taker is in the identical state — both sides of this market are uninitialized simultaneously.

Operator action required: provision index-maker (and index-taker) with a funded address and deploy their wake scripts. No SDK or core fix will unblock this.

Zero change from prior 24 cycles. All fields null/zero/false — no address, no tokens, no wake script, no watcher process. Not a regression; the agent has never run. IndexBasket as a market segment is entirely offline.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 25th consecutive null cycle — zero delta, bit-for-bit identical to prior. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. index-maker also remains null/undeployed; no IndexBasket intents exist in the funnel. No provisioning signal this cycle — confirmed undeployed, not crashed.

No change from prior 24 cycles. All fields null/zero/false. The IndexBasket pair (index-taker + index-maker) remains entirely unprovisioned — zero intents in the 1429-intent funnel, zero token spend, no wake script. This is a deployment gap, not a runtime failure.

wake_script_source=null, lifetime tokens=$0, 0 wakes across all recorded history, counterparty index-maker also null/undeployed, 0 IndexBasket intents in full funnel

N/A — agent has never executed. No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no watcher deployed — wake_script_source=null

Designed counterpart: index-maker posts LONG IndexBasket, index-taker takes the SHORT side

also null/undeployed — health=unknown, s

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent never deployed, no wake script, no on-chain presence

wake_script_source is null — no watcher exists at all

Deploy the agent: provision wake script, fund wallet, arm watcher — nothing else is actionable until provisioning occurs

Agent never provisioned

25 consecutive null cycles. wake_script_source=null, $0 lifetime spend, 0 wakes. index-maker (its sole counterparty) is equally undeployed. The IndexBasket market cannot form without both sides live.

Operator action: deploy both index-taker and index-maker together. Neither is useful without the other — coordinate provisioning as a pair.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

All 12 Cluster Q quotes valid, non-inverted, non-expired. No fillable network intents (best: sNVDA #1460 at 0bps vs orac

Cluster Q pre-expiry ts 1781170044 (~09:27 UTC) or oracle guard or fillable intent | 60min fallback

Summary: Fleet's sole functioning liquidity hub. BTC ask gap RESOLVED in w88 (posted #1278 at +15.1bps, 12/12 full book achieved and held through w89/w90) — the key open question from last run is answered. Open intents consolidated 15→11 confirming legacy dup cleanup is complete. Deals ticked 95→96 (+1); Arb-Hunter-Tom resurrection adds a net-new active counterparty.

96 deals, 12/12 full book, $11.85 realized PnL on $700 base — LP is performing its mission. BTC ask gap closed in w88; 15→11 dup consolidation confirms book is clean. The one active threat is concurrent-session inversion recurring on every oracle move, causing arb bleed and wasted wake cycles rather than fills.

12/12 quotes posted; 6 active counterparties (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, 0xBd6a…9863, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita); deal velocity limited by taker arrivals not LP quality. w85–w90 show 0 fills across multiple wakes despite tight quotes — thin taker side, not mispricing.

Sound and on-mission. w88 correctly diagnosed concurrent-session inversion (cancelled #1272 SSV +9.8bps inverted, #1274 dup sNVDA bid, #1273 dup SSV ask) and resolved it in one pass, achieving 12/12 full book. volTerm adjustments are quantitative (ETH 43.8bps, BTC 37.9bps, SSV 49.5bps) and mission-appropriate. Not churning — each wake either fills a gap, clears a stale quote, or correctly conclude

Cluster expiry guard: EXPIRY_FIRE_TS_SEC=1781133228 (~23:18 UTC) fires 5min before #1281–#1286 cluster expires

New fillable swap: newMatches() detects net-new intents where posterWants ∈ HOLD set

MISSING: inversion/spread-check trigger — concurrent-session inversions detected only at next poll (60s lag), causing arb bleed per event

Active arb taker; resurrection confirmed armed=true/pidAlive=true; appears 8× in recent deal list including w84 arb fill

Most frequent recent counterparty (~8 fills in tail); health=stuck but still settling LP intents

5 recent fills but current 4.96 USDC intent is sub-LP-minimum lot — won't clear until lior posts ≥12 USDC

2 recent fills; w23 20 USDC intent on book (18 min left) is above minimum

External wallet; 7 fills in recent tail — reliable taker source outside named fleet

Rebalancer-Lior's 4.96 USDC→BTC intent is sub-LP-minimum and correctly skipped. Swing-Nikita's 20 USDC intent (w23, 18 min left) is above minimum — watcher's newMatches() should fire on it if posted after last wake. No evidence of LP missing a fillable above-threshold intent.

Expiry cluster guard pins exact ts 1781133228 (5min before #1281–#1286 cluster) — no stale quotes

newMatches() on HOLD set: only fires on intents LP can profitably fill, not its own stale posts

60s poll interval — not sub-minute; patient cadence appropriate for 22-min avg gap

No oracle price guards (per playbook rule — avoids loop storms)

50min fallback ensures watcher doesn't go dark between clusters

No spread/inversion check: concurrent-session inversions (flagged w84, w87, w88) are discovered only at next 60s poll tick, allowing ~1min of arb exposure per e

Add an inversion detector in the watch loop: if any own bid's price ≥ own ask's price for the same asset (readable from open intents), fireWake('spread inverted — concurrent session detected') immediately rather than waiting up to 60s. This

Concurrent-session inversion recurs on every oracle move

w84, w87, w88 all report concurrent session posting inverted bids when oracle moves positive. Each event costs ~$0.076 arb loss plus a cleanup wake. Root: two watcher sessions posting simultaneously create crossed spreads. Watcher detects it reactively at next poll (up to 60s exposure).

Add inversion check in runWatchLoop body: compare own bid vs own ask prices per asset from readOpenIntents; fireWake immediately on cross. Also investigate why two concurrent watcher sessions arise — may need PID lock enforcement in armWatcher.

Token cost critical: $76.51/5h = 53.4% of pool

96 deals settling at $0.82/wake average; 87 wakes × $0.82 ≈ $71 but 5h cost is $76.51 with 80/87 repeat wakes. At this burn rate LP's token pool (~$143 implied at 53.4%) exhausts in ~5h. Repeat-wake rate 92% (80/87) suggests most wakes are maintenance not fills.

Core/SDK: add per-agent token budget cap and alert threshold. Agent-side: w85 correctly no-ops when nothing actionable — ensure repeat-wake suppression logic is consistently applied to avoid unnecessary LLM calls on zero-action wakes.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

new BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge (crypto 24/7, stocks 13:30–20:00 UTC Mon–Fri), or 60min fallback

Summary: Drought extended to 16 consecutive empty wakes (w59–w75 per wake-script comment); capital locked at $63.62 USDC, openExposureUsd=0 unchanged since last run. Watcher alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=18) firing 60-min fallbacks — not crashed. Zero drift: agent holds on ≥3pp edge floor discipline with no binary flow available, as bear-yosher (s

No drift. $63.62 USDC held flat, zero exposure, 16 straight empty wakes. Drought is structural: bear-yosher (crashed 1292 min) is the only binary writer; until it or a replacement comes online, mimic-ljuba has nothing to trade.

All 16 settled deals are 'custom live ↔ Bear-Yosher'; bear-yosher is crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 1292 min dark); no other fleet agent is writing BinaryBets; wakes 59–75 confirm zero binary flow on book

Sound and solving the right problem. Each wake log explicitly cites the board-empty condition, enforces the ≥3pp edge floor, and holds $63.62 USDC flat. One-deliberate-move rule enforced consistently. No sign of drift toward weaker-edge takes or mission creep.

New BinaryBet (templateHash 0x09cd1684...) appears on book → immediate fire via newMatches()

60-min fallback → periodic re-scan for price moves or new flow

sole historical counterparty (all 16 deals); writes BinaryBets mimic-ljuba copies/takes

CRASHED — 1292 min dark, armed=false, pi

writes small-shade binaries but only 2 lifetime deals — volume too thin to sustain flow

taker/arbitrageur, not a binary maker; revived (armed=true) but won't supply binary flow mimic-ljuba needs

REVIVED — armed=true, nextFallbackMin=36

none — board confirmed empty of BinaryBets for all 16 consecutive wakes (w59–w75); no intents available to take

Watches exactly the right template (BinaryBet 0x09cd...) — zero-LLM, fires on new supply only

Baseline-capture pattern prevents false fires on pre-existing intents already on book

60-min fallback is correct cadence for a patient taker during droughts

No trigger on bear-yosher revival specifically — mimic-ljuba may wait up to 59 min after primary counterparty returns

Wake-script comment says 'wakes 59–75' but is hardcoded per-write — minor staleness, not functional

Add a secondary trigger watching for fresh BinaryBets from bear-yosher's address (or its last-wake timestamp freshening), so mimic-ljuba fires immediately when its primary supplier revives rather than waiting the full 60-min fallback cycle.

Bear-yosher sole binary supply — no redundancy

All 16 of mimic-ljuba's settled deals are against bear-yosher. With bear-yosher crashed at 1292 min dark, mimic-ljuba has zero eligible counterparties and idles indefinitely. No other fleet agent writes BinaryBets at meaningful volume.

Operator: restart bear-yosher or onboard a second binary-bet writer to restore supply. This also unblocks vulture-andrew (38 deals), which takes near-decided binaries.

Wake script blind to counterparty revival

60-min fallback is the only path for mimic-ljuba to learn bear-yosher is back; up to 59 min of fresh binary supply missed on revival.

Add watcher trigger on new BinaryBets from bear-yosher's address so mimic-ljuba wakes immediately on counterparty revival, not at next fallback.

No drift. $63.62 USDC held flat, zero exposure, 16 straight empty wakes. Drought is structural: bear-yosher (crashed 1292 min) is the only binary writer; until it or a replacement comes online, mimic-ljuba has nothing to trade.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

SSV decisive momentum leader both lookbacks. No SSV seller at fair price. Posting 8h intent sizes to liftable depth (~25

intent-1342 resolve / new SSV seller / US open 13:30 UTC / momentum ≥2pp shift / 9h fallback

Summary: SSV conviction held through w19–w24 (10pp+ gap strongest in 22 wakes). Built 8 SSV tokens ($17.68) but stalled: intent #1327 expired unfilled, #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV at $2.12) live with ~78 min TTL and no SSV seller visible. LP-Maker-Matheus has filled all prior SSV swaps (w19–w21) but has gone quiet — likely inventory-drained after selling ~8 SSV; at $2

Intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV at $2.12) has no visible counterparty — LP-Maker is the sole SSV seller on this book and has not posted since w21 (after selling ~8 SSV). The intent will expire unfilled for the second consecutive time. Zero reliable counterparties for SSV right now.

5/5 settled SSV swaps were LP-Maker-Matheus (w19–w21); LP-Maker silent on SSV since w21; no other roster agent posts SSV sells. Current oracle $2.12 — LP-Maker likely inventory-drained or repricing above tolerance. Intent #1327 expired, #1342 approaching expiry with 0 fills.

Sound and on-mission. The 10pp+ SSV momentum gap (fast + slow lookbacks) is the strongest signal in 22 wakes and concentration is correct. The execution problem is structural, not a reasoning failure — the agent correctly prices at oracle and is waiting for a fair seller. Risk: two consecutive expirations suggest the agent should consider widening price tolerance rather than re-posting the identic

ownIntentResolved: fires when intent #1342 fills OR expires (~10:05 UTC Jun 11)

new SSV seller at fair price on open book (≤1% above $2.12 oracle)

SSV vs ETH momentum gap shifts ≥2pp from arm-time baseline

US market open at 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (hardcoded, effectiveDeadline = min(9h fallback, US open))

Sole SSV liquidity source; filled all 5 prior SSV swaps (w19–w21) but has not posted SSV at $2.12 since — likely inventory-drained after sel

silent on SSV; likely repricing above $2

Takes mispriced swaps opportunistically — could fill if it identifies #1342 as a favorable take, but SSV is not a primary target and vulture

armed, 6 open intents, $4.29 burn — acti

Fades dislocations — if SSV is stretched above trailing average, swing-nikita would SELL SSV, which is what momentum-nikita needs; but swing

status unknown; roster shows 5 deals, no

None measurable from available data — watcher scans open book for SSV sellers each poll cycle (newMatches filter on posterGives=mSSV, posterWants=USDC, impliedPrice ≤ $2.14). If a seller appeared and was missed, the watcher logic would be at fault; no evidence of that. The book simply has no SSV sellers.

ownIntentResolved fires on BOTH fill and expire — agent won't sit idle after expiry

Open-book scan for new SSV sellers is correct and well-filtered (symbol + price ≤ 1% oracle)

Momentum gap shift trigger (±2pp) avoids chasing a dead signal

US open hardcoded trigger is mission-relevant (stock open affects SSV/crypto correlation)

9h fallback is appropriate for a patient swing agent; effectiveDeadline caps it at 13:30 UTC

No trigger for LP-Maker specifically coming back online with SSV inventory — current scan catches any poster, which is correct, but LP-Maker reactivation is the

Momentum gap shift uses a single price snapshot (readPrices) rather than a proper 4h lookback — could misfire on short-term noise

At w25 (post-expiry), widen price tolerance from 0% to +1.5–2% above oracle ($2.12 → accept up to $2.15) in the next intent. Two consecutive expirations at $2.12 confirm LP-Maker is repricing SSV above that level after inventory drain — the

Price tolerance stuck at oracle — second expiry incoming

Intents #1327 and #1342 both posted at $2.12 oracle (0% slip tolerance); LP-Maker has not filled since w21. Agent is re-posting the same price into a book that won't clear at that level.

After #1342 expires at w25, post next intent with up to 1.5–2% price tolerance ($2.15 ceiling). If LP-Maker's SSV is repriced, this unlocks the fill. Cap slip tolerance in CLAUDE.md to prevent open-ended drift.

LP-Maker SSV inventory exhaustion not surfaced to fleet

LP-Maker is the only SSV liquidity source; after selling ~8 SSV in w19–w21 it has gone silent. No fleet-level signal exists for 'LP-Maker has exhausted inventory in asset X' — momentum-nikita and any future SSV buyer will keep posting expiring intents with no diagnosis.

Core/fleet: add LP-Maker inventory monitoring to the fleet snapshot so agents can detect when the sole maker for a token is depleted. Alternatively, LP-Maker should rebalance SSV inventory proactively when it drops below a threshold.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Cheap optionality: tight-to-the-money put with 24h tail, thin premium on a volatile stock (sNVDA). Probability of 0.20 d

All 4 settled deals trace to option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). Writer's nextFallbackMin=1144 confirms ~19h of silence ahead; 0 audited options on book for 201 min. Taker watcher polls every 60s and has not fired — book is genuinely empty.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f…ad63) — detected via 60s poll of open book

Settle window: nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956, ~17:37 UTC June 11 — 5 min before deal #118 expiry)

23h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1141, fires ~16:52 UTC June 11 — ~45 min before settle window)

Sole option supplier; all 4 deals sourced here. Writer is resting (~19h nextFallbackMin=1144) — next posts expected around w27/w28.

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents — could theoretically compete for the same intents, but does not supply options

Fires on new audited-hash option intents — exactly the signal this taker needs; can't fire on generic book activity

Settle-window trigger (MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS) aligns the 23h fallback with deal #118 expiry — agent wakes just before settlement, not randomly

First-poll baseline (seenIntentIds=null guard) prevents false-fires on stale intents already taken

60s cadence appropriate for an option book that posts infrequently

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to deal #118's window. After deals #118/#119 settle, any future deal taken will have a different expiry — the settle-

Hardcoded settle-window timestamp goes stale after new deals

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 targets deal #118's expiry. Once #118/#119 settle and the agent takes a new option (different expiry), this check will never fire (past timestamp) — settle-timing precision is lost for all future deals.

Dynamically derive MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS each poll: read open deals, take min(expiry) - 300s. Store in a variable updated each loop iteration.

Single-supplier dependency on option-writer-matheus

4/4 deals from one counterparty. Writer is in a ~19h rest cycle (nextFallbackMin=1144). If writer crashes or shifts mission, taker has zero supply. No other agent currently posts audited-hash options.

Encourage a second option writer on the same audited template hash, or have option-writer-matheus post smaller batches more frequently so the taker has a steadier flow.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

All three Engine 1 resume conditions remain false: (1) no vol spike ≥1% (crypto +2.04%/+2.10%, stock −3.43%/−1.45%, norm

vol ≥1%, ranking rotation, or new buyer option intent (or 120-min fallback)

Option-Taker-Matheus is the sole confirmed option counterparty (4 total deals, 1 custom settled this cycle). No new buyer option intents have appeared across 47 wakes since w37. LP-Maker-Matheus (104 deals) is swap-only — no option overlap. Vulture-Andrew's 5 new open intents are likely swaps/binari

Vol spike ≥1% on ETH, BTC, sNVDA, or sMSFT vs baseline

Stock worst-2 ranking rotation (rank-performance.ts)

New non-swap intent on network (ANY kind — too broad)

Only confirmed option buyer on-network; settled 1 custom contract this cycle

Swap-only counterparty; no option-buying activity in 104 deals

Posts opportunistic intents; could take mispriced options but no confirmed option deal history

Three triggers map 1:1 to Engine 1 resume conditions — no spurious gates

120-min fallback appropriate for a patient portfolio agent (not a latency play)

Baseline initialized on first poll; won't fire on startup noise

60-second poll cadence reasonable given mission horizon

Check 3 fires on ANY new non-swap intent — Vulture-Andrew's 5 repostings (binaries/custom) will trigger spurious wakes if they appear as non-swap in networkOpen

rank-performance.ts runs via execSync every poll — expensive subprocess call at 60s cadence; silent catch means ranking rotation can be missed entirely outside

Wake Check 3 too broad — fires on non-option non-swap intents

Filter condition `i.kind !== 'swap'` catches binaries, custom deals, and Vulture-Andrew's 5 new open intents. With Vulture-Andrew re-armed this cycle, spurious fires are likely.

Change to `i.kind === 'option' || i.template?.includes('Option')` (or equivalent intent-type check) so only genuine option buyer intents trigger Engine 1 reassessment.

Settlement contract identity (#118 vs #119) unverifiable from wake logs

The settled_deals_detail entry reads 'custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus' with no contract ID. Prior context places #118 call expiry at ~17:37 UTC and #119 put at ~18:31 UTC. Net payout unknown; realized_pnl_usd unchanged at -$11.48 — the settlement may not have been profitable.

Agent should log the settled contract ID and payout delta in its wake summary so the observer can close the loop without inference.

rank-performance.ts subprocess at 60-second poll cadence

execSync with 20s timeout runs every poll iteration. Outside US market hours, it silently fails — ranking rotation detection goes dark without any flag in wake output.

Cache ranking result with a TTL (e.g., 15 min) and emit a warn log when the tool fails, so the observer can detect silent blind spots.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

sAAPL stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75) hit; new binary/option intent; fallback Jun11 20:00 UTC

Summary: Continuing to hold 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / horizon Jun12 20:00 UTC). nextFallbackMin burned 784→669 = −115 min; last_wake_min_ago grew 1017→1132 = +115 min — exact 1:1 burn, third consecutive cycle of mechanical consistency confirmed. Fallback fires today Jun11 20:00 UTC (~669 min from observation), at which point agent wil

1:1 burn confirmed again (−115 min fallback / +115 min elapsed). The Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback is the next material event today — watcher will wake to assess whether lp-maker-matheus or another counterparty can fill the sAAPL exit ahead of the Jun12 horizon. Oracle price for sAAPL not in snapshot data, so stop/forward current-status is unverifiable this cycle; no price trigger fired, implying $277.34–$303.75 range intact.

Agent is in single-position hold mode (0.085722 sAAPL since entry); deal count 2 is lifetime, reflecting correct selectivity for a Polymarket-edge taker. No new mispriced binary/option intents reported across wakes w19–w26. This is correct behavior, not a malfunction.

Sound and mission-appropriate. Each of the 8 logged wakes (w19–w26) correctly identifies no edge and holds. w26 caught the needsApproval gap and fixed it preemptively — this is good defensive reasoning. Edge erosion to 1.5% per distribution convergence is reported across multiple wakes, consistent with expected behavior as the horizon approaches. No signs of re-deriving the same wrong problem; age

new binary/option/unknown intent appears on book

Fallback: Jun11 20:00 UTC = 1781208000 (fires today, ~669 min out)

105 deals, deep inventory, quotes swaps near oracle mid — primary exit counterparty for sAAPL delivered swap

DCA trader that transacts in sMSFT/BTC; sAAPL trim is in its mandate (13:30 UTC stock-open event today), could co-transact

Fades dislocations in sAAPL/sNVDA; could absorb sAAPL if it's stretched above trailing average at exit

None verifiable. momentum-nikita's SSV intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV) is live on book but falls outside polymarket-ljuba's binary/option scope. All wakes w19–w26 correctly found no Polymarket-edge mispricing worth taking. Book scan is active as tertiary trigger so new opportunities would fire a wake.

Price triggers on exact stop/forward thresholds ($277.34 / $303.75) — fires the instant price crosses, no polling lag beyond 60s

Horizon check uses on-chain nowTs from snapshot, not wall-clock — correct for blockchain-settled positions

Fallback set to Jun11 20:00 UTC (24h before horizon) to assess maker candidates — textbook pre-expiry assessment cadence

Tertiary book scan catches new binary/option/unknown intents — keeps Polymarket-edge mission alive during hold phase

w26 preemptive approval (tx 0xf145...) shows watcher caught needsApproval gap before exit was needed — defensive and correct

No oracle price available in the current data snapshot to confirm sAAPL is still between stop/forward this cycle — unverifiable from observer side only

horizonTs is loaded from state.json on first poll; a state.json corruption would silently fall back to hardcoded 1781294400 with no alerting

Log the resolved horizonTs on first load (e.g., `console.log('[watcher] horizonTs resolved:', horizonTs, new Date(horizonTs*1000).toISOString())`) so the fallback path vs state.json path is distinguishable in wake logs. No mission-critical

sAAPL oracle price not confirmed in-range this cycle

Observer has no oracle snapshot for sAAPL current price. Stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 range is assumed intact since no price trigger fired, but cannot be confirmed. Entry was $290.79; any gap above $303.75 would warrant immediate wake.

Confirm sAAPL oracle price at next agent wake or via manual snapshot call; no code change needed — price triggers in watcher will fire correctly if thresholds are breached.

Post-fallback maker candidate assessment needs lp-maker availability

Fallback fires Jun11 20:00 UTC today. Agent will need lp-maker-matheus (105 deals, primary counterparty) available to fill the exit swap. lp-maker health is currently ok with active deal flow.

No action now; monitor lp-maker health through today. If lp-maker goes dark before Jun11 20:00 UTC, alert so swing-nikita/rebalancer-lior can serve as backup exit counterparties.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: Armed and burning down to 13:30 UTC stock open (next fallback 14:00 UTC, nextFallbackMin=309 at 08:58 UTC → 5h01m remaining to fallback, ~4h32m to trigger). Prior summary noted BTC #1294 filled at +4% premium in w44→w45; since then (~60 min elapsed) zero new wakes, zero new deals, zero new intents — agent is correctly idle with no deployable capital until sM

Script is valid and will fire at 13:30 UTC (~4h32m away). sMSFT overweight is unchanged (no trim since w45, 550 min ago). LP-Maker filled BTC at +4% in w44; next slice should clear at similar premium — no evidence the slot has disappeared. Idle state is correct, not broken.

Sequential dependency: sMSFT trim must generate USDC first, then BTC DCA can proceed. Stocks closed since w45 (23:41 UTC Jun 10). No USDC available until 13:30 UTC open. 15 settled deals, 0 open intents, 0 tokens spent in last 5h — all consistent with deliberate wait.

Sound and solving the right problem. Agent correctly identified the sequential constraint (trim→proceeds→DCA) in w45 and encoded it precisely into the watcher. No churn — it has not re-derived the same move; it is waiting for an external event (stock open) that is the genuine prerequisite. The +4% BTC premium escalation path (oracle→+1.47%→+2.07%→+3%→+4%) was methodical and evidence-driven.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-11T13:30:00Z (US stock open) — fires fireWake every 60s poll until condition met

Fallback at 2026-06-11T14:00:00Z (FALLBACK_MS computed at script-load time w45=23:41 UTC Jun 10; nextFallbackMin=309 at 08:58 UTC confirms 14:00 UTC target exac

Primary BTC/ETH/sMSFT swap filler; 4 of last 7 settled deals; filled BTC #1294 at +4% premium

Filled one swap (Momentum-Nikita listed in settled deals); directional rotator may want sMSFT if it's overweight in rebalancer

Took one swap; primarily binary-focused but takes opportunistic swaps near oracle

None measurable — agent has 0 deployable capital until sMSFT trim. Stocks have been closed since w45. No intents on book that match its buying profile. Correct to post nothing.

Fires on a hard wall-clock condition (Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS) — cannot spuriously trigger on book state or random noise

60s poll interval appropriate for catching a precise market-open moment without sub-minute noise

Fallback at 14:00 UTC (30 min after open) gives a safety net if condition fires but agent logic stalls

Zero-LLM watcher; FALLBACK_MS computed at load-time correctly and confirmed by nextFallbackMin=309 burning 1:1

Label is human-readable and audit-friendly: 'US stock open 2026-06-11T13:30 UTC — sMSFT trim + BTC DCA'

If sMSFT is no longer overweight at open (e.g. price moved), the plan hardcoded in the fire-message may be stale — the agent will need to re-evaluate targets at

No structural change needed. One guard worth adding: at fire time, re-fetch current sMSFT allocation before approving trim — if it has drifted to target since w45, skip the trim and go straight to BTC DCA with available USDC (if any). This

BTC DCA premium may need to exceed +4% next cycle

Escalation path took 12+ oracle failures before reaching +4% fill. Each failed intent consumes LLM tokens (~$1.09 last wake). If LP-Maker's BTC ask has moved higher post-fill, another multi-step escalation will burn more budget.

At w46 (stock open), start BTC DCA posting at +4% (last clearing rate) rather than restarting escalation from oracle. Skip the known-failing lower premiums.

sMSFT overweight status unverified since w45 (550 min ago)

No on-chain data confirms sMSFT is still overweight — it's an assumption. Price movement could have closed the gap. The agent will wake and execute the trim plan without re-checking.

First action at 13:30 wake: fetch current portfolio allocations and re-derive gap before posting any intent. Script already supports this pattern (w40b shows mid-wake re-evaluation), so this is a prompt/logic fix, not a structural one.

Stacker-Massimo

Taker-led tech-equity accumulator: take resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle, 24/7, ~10 USDC lots; post own bid at oracle+0.5% only when nothing is takeable. Accumulate until 100 USDC deployed; never sell.

Resting sNVDA sell within 1% take ceiling (oracle×1.01). Fill cost 8.08 USDC within lot cap. Primary deployment path: ta

new sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC (or 45-min fallback)

Summary: Correctly armed and counting down to today's 13:30 UTC market open. Prior summary confirmed: w28 fired at 07:01 UTC (110 min ago) as a pre-market check — no action taken, re-armed with nextFallbackMin=309. Math checks out: fallback set at waker-arm-time msToOpen + 30 min ≈ 389 + 30 = 419 min from 07:01, minus 110 elapsed = 309 remaining — watcher fires at ~1

Fallback countdown is correct: nextFallbackMin=309 at last_wake_min_ago=110 implies arm-point fallback of 419 min from 07:01 UTC → fires ~14:00 UTC safety net, while the runWatchLoop epoch check fires at exactly 13:30 UTC. LP-Maker had sNVDA sell-side confirmed at w27 (06-10T12:05 UTC); 99 USDC is spendable. Structural constraint (market hours) fully explains 24-of-29 pre-market no-op wakes — agent is not broken, just patient.

sNVDA swaps restricted to US market hours 09:30–16:00 ET; 24 of 29 wakes logged as pre-market no-ops. Only 2 settled deals, but both within market hours window. Not an agent fault.

Sound and solving the right problem. Agent correctly identifies pre-market windows, logs exact ET times, re-arms for open, and doesn't waste gas on no-op hours. The w27 sNVDA sell-side detection and consecutive_misses reset show the fallback-to-next-asset logic is functioning. One caveat: the current wake script targets today's epoch 1781184600 specifically — after firing, the agent must emit a ne

runWatchLoop epoch check: fires when nowSec() >= 1781184600 (13:30 UTC today)

Fallback at arm-time msToOpen + 30 min ≈ 14:00 UTC today (safety net)

Primary sNVDA sell-side provider; consecutive_misses reset to 0 at w27 when LP posted sNVDA ask; 105 settled deals confirms deep activity

Unmeasurable pre-market (no sNVDA sells posted outside market hours by LP-Maker). During yesterday's market session w27 executed correctly. No missed opportunities detectable in current data.

Hardcodes today's exact epoch (1781184600) — no oracle drift, no stale date bug (prior crash was exactly this)

Zero-LLM, no book sweep pre-market — correct, nothing to act on before open

30-min post-open fallback is proportionate: patient mission, not a latency-sensitive agent

runWatchLoop fires at epoch boundary precisely — stacker acts at open, not 30 min late

Script is single-session — after firing at 13:30 UTC today, next watcher must target 2026-06-12T13:30:00Z; relies on agent's wake handler to emit that correctly

After the market-open fire, assert in the wake handler that the new watcher's MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH = today + 1 business day (skip weekends), so the script never silently targets a stale or non-trading epoch.

Single-session epoch hardcode requires correct daily re-arm

current.ts targets epoch 1781184600 exclusively. If the post-open wake handler emits a new watcher with tomorrow's correct epoch, this is fine. If it ever copies the same epoch or skips weekends incorrectly, the agent goes dark until manual intervention (the prior 844-min crash was exactly this fail

In the wake handler, compute next_market_open_epoch as now + 1 business day and assert it is > current epoch before arming; log the computed value so each w## shows the confirmed next target.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: No-trade streak w24–w33 remains structurally justified; nothing has changed since last summary. sNVDA drift continued narrowing: -0.93% at w33 (07:19 UTC), now estimated ~-0.84% at ~08:51 UTC (+0.06pp/hr sustained), projecting ~-0.56% at 13:30 UTC market open — 0.94pp short of the ≥-1.5% buy threshold. Sell signals flagged in w32 ('actionable signals require

sNVDA drift is recovering, not dislocating — the gap to the buy trigger has widened from 0.57pp (w33) to an estimated 0.66pp now and will reach ~0.94pp by market open. The agent's decision to wait is correct. The only actionable path today is if 13:30 UTC stock market open reveals a fresh sMSFT/sAAPL dislocation the agent already holds the opposite side of, or sNVDA reverses sharply; at current trajectory neither is likely.

sNVDA -0.93% at w33 vs ≥-1.5% buy threshold (gap 0.57pp and widening); w32 flagged sell signals in assets not held; SSV sell-side structurally blocked by zero inventory (+5.72% drift noted but no SSV to sell); all 5 settled deals via LP-Maker-Matheus with no open intents

Sound and solving the right problem. The agent is correctly distinguishing between sub-threshold drift (sNVDA recovering, not dislocating) and structural blocks (zero-inventory SSV, market-hours stocks). w32's 'actionable signals require selling assets I do not hold' shows it's actively scanning and not ignoring opportunities — it simply lacks the position. No churn detected; wakes are sparse (avg

Time-based: Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS (13:30 UTC epoch 1781184600)

Fallback: 15:30 UTC (~399 min, 2h post-open)

MISSING: No price-trigger for BTC/ETH dislocation between now and 13:30 UTC — if crypto crosses threshold before market open the agent sleeps through it

All 5 settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus swaps; the sole reliable fill source for delivered swaps

Rebalancer takes delivered swaps on same stock universe (sMSFT/BTC/DCA) — could cross swing-nikita's sell if both active post-13:30 UTC

Stacks sNVDA; if swing-nikita ever posts a sell-sNVDA intent, stacker could be a taker — but stacker is buying, not selling, so only relevan

None attributable to agent error. w32 identified sell-side dislocations in assets the agent doesn't hold — these are opportunities that required prior position-building, not execution failures. SSV sell-signal (+5.72%) is structurally blocked by zero inventory; no amount of wake-script tuning resolves that without an upstream fund/rebalance.

Targets the exact unlock event (US market open 13:30 UTC) that unblocks the stock dislocation signals the agent is waiting on

Zero-LLM: pure time comparison, deterministic, no book dependency

Fallback at 15:30 UTC (2h post-open) is appropriately patient — swing-nikita thinks in hours, not minutes

Comment in script accurately records current state at write-time (sNVDA -0.93%, SSV blocked)

No crypto price trigger: BTC or ETH could cross the sell/buy threshold before 13:30 UTC and the agent would miss it (sleeps until fallback at 15:30 UTC in that

Add a secondary check inside the runWatchLoop for BTC/ETH oracle drift crossing the sell threshold (≥+1.5% above trailing avg) — these are 24/7 assets not gated by market hours, and the current script would sleep through a crypto dislocatio

Crypto dislocation blind spot in watcher

runWatchLoop only checks Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS. BTC/ETH are 24/7 and can cross the fade threshold at any time; the current watcher won't fire until 13:30 UTC (or 15:30 UTC fallback) even if a crypto signal emerges now.

Add a lightweight oracle-drift check inside the loop body: if BTC or ETH drift exceeds threshold, fireWake('crypto dislocation — BTC/ETH crossed fade threshold'). No LLM required — fetch oracle price, compute drift vs trailing avg, compare to constant.

SSV zero-inventory structural block — no recovery path

SSV has shown sell-strength (+5.72% at w32/w33) across multiple wakes but the agent has zero SSV inventory. The agent correctly identifies and skips it each wake, but the block is never resolved — no mechanism exists to acquire SSV for subsequent sells.

Operator decision: either fund the agent with a base SSV position, or remove SSV from the sell-side universe in the mission config since the agent can never execute that leg.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

1432 ETH sell expiring in ~2.5 min, no BTC sell on book, buy-baits 1439/1441 expiring in 7-11 min before next watcher fi

13 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781170164; next poll 92s

Summary: GENUINE RESTART CONFIRMED at ~08:06 UTC June 11 after 915-min hard crash (was armed=false/pidAlive=false/$0 burn/0 intents). Wakes w75-w82 (08:06–08:53 UTC) show operator restarted the agent; $4.41 tokens burned in 5h window vs $0 prior, 7 open intents rebuilt, deals still frozen at 38 (no new fills since restart). Gas gate firing repeatedly — quotes undercu

Hard crash reversed — genuine restart at ~08:06 UTC after 915-min outage. No settled deals yet post-restart (38 total unchanged), but the agent is running correctly: 7 open intents live, gas gate correctly firing on 4 of 8 wakes. The block to new deals is structural: rivals out-compete at 1% spread while vulture's bait positions ($3.45–$8.12) can't be refreshed at positive expected value given current gas.

w78/w80/w82: gas ~$1.07–$1.44 to cancel+repost vs $0.04–0.05 marginal edge improvement; rivals quoting 1% vs vulture's 1.3–1.8% on 1432/1443/1450. All 7 recent settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus swaps — no binary/option edges taken since restart.

Sound reasoning, right problem. Gas-gate logic is correctly disciplined (w78: '$1.07 gas >> $0.04 marginal gain'). The pre-expiry repost on 1430/1460 (w81) shows correct mission-awareness. The issue isn't agent reasoning quality — it's that the book economics currently prevent profitable refresh, creating an undercut-but-can't-fix loop. Not a reasoning failure; a structural squeeze.

New takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges, 30s poll)

Quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes cancelCmds)

MISSING: no trigger on deal settlement by counterparties (could miss a taker filling a rival quote that creates a new edge window)

Dominant fill partner — 6 of 7 most recent settled deals; deep equity/crypto inventory creates swap opportunities for vulture's edge-taking

Both edge-take; could compete on same binaries rather than transact — not a natural counterparty unless one makes what the other takes

SSV intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, 78 min remaining) is live — vulture could take if edge ≥1%, but LP-Maker isn't matching it at oracle

Crashed (1292 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false) — no activity, no counterparty flow

Momentum-nikita SSV intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, ~78 min remaining at last data) — edge vs oracle unknown from this data; watcher should have caught it if scan-edges sees it and edge ≥1%. Otherwise no measurable missed opportunities in the w75-w82 window — the gas gate correctly blocked marginal re-quotes.

Pre-seeds known honeypot IDs (779, 836, 869) — prevents watcher from firing on traps

Four distinct triggers (edge, pre-expiry, erosion, fallback) all mission-relevant for a bait+take agent

30s poll with 30s de-bounce is efficient without being sub-minute spam

Zero-LLM in watch loop; 2h fallback is appropriate for patient vulture cadence

check-my-quotes cancelCmds integration means watcher fires exactly when action is warranted

No minimum-position-size filter before gas-gate check — agent repeatedly wakes on w80/w82 to find the same undercut quotes it already knows it can't fix; wastes

seenEdgeIds set grows unbounded across watcher lifetime — long-lived sessions will silently skip edges that were 'seen' earlier but conditions changed

Add a 'stale-undercut backoff': if check-my-quotes returns the same cancelCmds as the prior wake AND gas gate would block all of them, suppress the wake-trigger for min(remaining_ttl/2, 30min) to avoid burning $0.68 LLM calls to conclude 'n

Undercut-but-can't-fix loop burning LLM tokens

Wakes w76/w78/w80/w82 all concluded 'no action' because gas > marginal gain on already-undercut quotes. Each wake costs ~$0.68 LLM. Four no-op wakes = ~$2.72 wasted in 47 min.

In wake script, track which cancelCmds were gas-gated last wake; if identical set returns and TTL > 30 min, skip wake trigger (or extend poll to ~15 min for those specific intents). Alternatively, lower the re-quote position floor so refresh becomes gas-positive at smaller sizes.

seenEdgeIds set never pruned

Set accumulates all seen edge IDs across watcher lifetime. After hours/days, a previously seen edge that re-prices to a new opportunity won't fire (ID already in set).

Store seenEdgeIds as Map<id, timestamp> and evict entries older than edge TTL (~2h). Or reset set on each wake restart.

Rivals consistently undercutting at 1% — structural book compression

1432 ($3.45, 1.3%), 1443 ($4.46, 1.34%), 1450 ($8.12, 1.8%) all out-competed. If rivals can sustain 1% spread profitably, vulture's floor needs re-calibration or the book is permanently crowded out.

Fleet-level: surface which agent(s) are quoting at 1% on these pairs — if it's a misconfigured agent offering unsustainable spreads, that's a fleet issue. If it's fair competition, vulture needs a tighter floor or a differentiated bait angle.

SWAP HUB HOLDS; BINARY FROZEN

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom / Vulture-Andrew / Rebalancer-Lior / 0xBd6a…9863

Active — 12/12 quotes live; Arb-Hunter-Tom dominant taker (8 of last 16 settled)

LP-Maker-Matheus ← Momentum-Nikita (one-directional demand)

Stalled — LP-Maker inventory-drained after selling ~8 SSV (w19–w21); current boo

FROZEN — Bear-Yosher crashed 1292 min (armed=false/pidAlive=false); deal 75 betE

Supply dry — Engine 1 paused 47 wakes; taker holds call #118 (exp ~17:37 UTC) an

OFFLINE — both agents never initialized; 0 IndexBasket intents in 1464-intent fu

Holding 0.085722 sAAPL; mechanical fallback fires Jun 11 ~20:00 UTC (nextFallbac

Bear-Yosher hard crash (1292 min, armed=false/pidAlive=false since Jun 10 11:17 UTC)

BinaryBet market fully frozen: Mimic-Ljuba $63.62 locked across 16 live custom deals, deal 75 expired unresolved, Arb-Hu

bear-yosher settled_deals frozen at 17 across all consecutive cycles; deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 (~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) passed with no settlement call; mimic-ljuba wakes 59–75 all empty; arb-hunt

LP-Maker-Matheus SSV inventory drain (~8 SSV sold across w19–w21)

Momentum-Nikita intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV at $2.12) has no filler — second consecutive expiry imminent; no other

All 5 prior Momentum-Nikita SSV fills via LP-Maker; LP-Maker current open book: posts '4 USDC → wants 1.816 SSV' (bid) but zero SSV offer; intent #1327 already expired unfilled

Vulture-Andrew gas gate: cancel+repost costs $1.07–$1.44 vs $0.04–0.05 marginal edge improvement; rivals quoting 1% vs V

0 fills since revival at ~08:06 UTC despite $4.41 burned and 7 open intents; 38 lifetime deals stalled post-restart

w78/w80/w82 gas gate data; rival spread 1% on intents 1432/1443/1450; all recent Vulture-Andrew ↔ LP-Maker settled deals are LP filling Vulture's take-side — Vulture not winning as maker

Option-Writer Engine 1 paused 47 wakes (no new option intents since w37); nextFallbackMin=118 fires after both expiries

Option-Taker holds 2 expiring positions with zero new supply in pipeline; post-17:37 UTC taker is fully undeployed

option-taker-matheus: 201 min since last wake, watcher polls 60s — book genuinely empty; option-writer: Engine 2 inventory 69.7% vs 70% target, Engine 1 resume gates (vol ≥1%, ranking rotation, buyer

Stock market closed since Jun 10 23:41 UTC

Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, and Swing-Nikita correctly idle in a synchronized 3-agent hold; all armed for 13:30 UT

rebalancer-lior: nextFallbackMin=296 at 08:58 UTC (~14:00 UTC fallback); stacker-massimo: nextFallbackMin=296 (same target); swing-nikita: sNVDA at -0.93% vs ≥-1.5% threshold, nextFallbackMin=386; 0 w

Bear-Yosher crash cascades: binary market dead, $63.62 locked, deal 75 unresolved

Bear-Yosher dark 1292 min (armed=false/pidAlive=false). Deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed with no settlement — as losing counterparty, Mimic-Ljuba has no incentive to initiate. Mimic-Ljuba's $63.62 USDC frozen across 16 live custom deals; wakes 59–75 all empty. Arb-Hunter-Tom has seen 0 binary bets for 46+ consecutive waits (counter frozen at 11 through w204).

bear-yosher: settled_deals=17 unchanged, 0 token spend since w41; mimic-ljuba: openExposureUsd=0, wakes 59–75 empty; arb-hunter-tom: counter=11 w197–w204

Operator restart of bear-yosher + manual settlement call for deal 75 — unblocks Mimic-Ljuba capital and restores the only binary bet market on fleet

Vulture-Andrew revived but gas-gated into 0-fill limbo

Restart confirmed ~08:06 UTC after 915-min crash; $4.41 burned, 7 open intents live, 0 fills. Quotes at 1.3–1.8% lose every comparison to rivals at 1% on same assets. Gas to cancel+repost ($1.07–$1.44) exceeds marginal edge improvement ($0.04–0.05), so the gas gate correctly suppresses reposting — but the underlying spread is the root problem.

w78/w80/w82 gas gate logs; rival 1% spread on intents 1432/1443/1450; 38 lifetime deals stalled

Tighten Vulture-Andrew quote spread to ≤1% to compete with rivals; or pause reposting until edge improvement exceeds gas cost threshold

Option-Taker's 2 positions expire today; writer fires after both expiries

sNVDA call #118 expires ~17:37 UTC, put #119 ~18:31 UTC. Option-Writer nextFallbackMin=118 means its next wake is ~2h out — after both expiries. Post-expiry, Option-Taker is fully undeployed with no new options queued. Today's 13:30 UTC stock open raises vol — Engine 1 resume gate (vol ≥1%) may be satisfied, but only if writer fires in time.

option-taker: badge 'ARMED, SUPPLY DRY', 201 min since last wake, 4 total deals all ↔ option-writer; option-writer: Engine 1 dormant 47 wakes, nextFallbackMin=118

Manually check option-writer Engine 1 resume gates before 17:37 UTC — if vol ≥1% at 13:30 open, trigger Engine 1 to replenish supply before positions expire

Momentum-Nikita SSV intent #1342 heading to second expiry — no SSV sell-side on roster

Intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV at $2.12) live with ~63 min remaining per open book. LP-Maker inventory-drained after selling ~8 SSV in w19–w21; current LP-Maker book shows SSV bid only (wants 1.816 SSV for 4 USDC), no SSV ask. No other roster agent carries SSV sell-side capacity. Intent #1327 already expired unfilled.

Momentum-Nikita: 5/5 prior SSV fills via LP-Maker; LP-Maker open book: SSV bid present, zero SSV offer; open book entry: 'LP-Maker-Matheus [Swap] gives 4 USDC → wants 1.816 SSV'

LP-Maker SSV inventory restock required before Momentum-Nikita's next intent; alternatively, check if Vulture-Andrew holds SSV inventory and could post SSV sell-side

13:30 UTC stock open triggers 3-agent synchronized burst; LP-Maker ready

Rebalancer-Lior (sMSFT trim + BTC DCA), Stacker-Massimo (sNVDA stacking start), and Swing-Nikita (sNVDA drift threshold at -0.93% vs ≥-1.5% threshold) all armed for 13:30 UTC. LP-Maker 12/12 book live with 5 reliable counterparties — positioned to absorb the burst. sNVDA drift projects ~-0.56% at open, 0.94pp short of Swing-Nikita's buy threshold; sell signals may fire instead.

rebalancer-lior: nextFallbackMin=296 at 08:58 UTC; stacker-massimo: nextFallbackMin=296; swing-nikita: nextFallbackMin=386; LP-Maker: 105 deals, 12/12 quotes live

No action needed — monitor LP-Maker fill velocity at 13:30 UTC burst and SSV inventory heading into the window

LP-Maker-Matheus full book maintained; BTC gap resolved; deals +9 this cycle

12/12 quotes live through w88–w90; BTC ask gap resolved at +15.1bps in w88. Deals ticked 96→105 (+9) this cycle with Arb-Hunter-Tom as dominant taker (8 of 16 recent settled). Fleet's sole functioning swap hub with 5 reliable counterparties.

LP-Maker: 105 deals, nextFallbackMin=48, armed=true; BTC gap resolved w88; recent deals: 8 LP-Maker ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom in last 16

Monitor SSV sell-side inventory; restock before Momentum-Nikita's next intent cycle

URGENT: Restart bear-yosher and manually settle deal 75 (betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed) — this single action unblocks Mimic-Ljuba's $63.62, restores the only binary bet market, and unclogs Arb-Hunter-Tom's binary stream

Tighten Vulture-Andrew quote spread to ≤1% — current 1.3–1.8% loses every rival comparison; $4.41 burned with 0 fills since revival; this is the highest-leverage per-agent fix available right now

Trigger option-writer Engine 1 resume check before 17:37 UTC — both option-taker positions expire today; writer's scheduled wake fires after both expiries; manual check can prevent option-taker going fully idle

Restock LP-Maker SSV sell-side inventory before Momentum-Nikita's next intent — intent #1342 is the second consecutive expiry; structural SSV sell-side gap persists with no roster substitute

Provision index-maker/index-taker if IndexBasket segment is planned — 25 consecutive null cycles, zero funnel presence; decision point: deploy or formally deprioritize

Better vs last run — Vulture-Andrew has revived (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=36, $4.29 burn, 6 open intents) reversing the prior 915-min confirmed crash; LP-Maker deals grew 96→105 (+9) with Arb-Hunter-Tom as the dominant counterparty (5+ of recent 16 settled deals); bear-yosher and index pair remai

Vulture-Andrew state flip: prior summary said armed=false/pidAlive=false/0-burn hard crash, current shows armed=true/nextFallbackMin=36/$4.29 burn/6 open intents — largest single change this cycle, ne

13:30 UTC stock market open today (epoch 1781184600): three agents have hardcoded logic on this event — rebalancer-lior (sMSFT trim + BTC DCA), stacker-massimo (start sNVDA stacking), swing-nikita (th

Momentum-nikita SSV intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV) live on book with 78 min remaining — LP-Maker not matching SSV at agent's oracle price, second expiry likely

Option-taker-matheus: sNVDA call #118 expires ~17:37 UTC today, put #119 ~18:31 UTC — both expiring in <6h, ITM/OTM status unknown

Bear-yosher: still crashed (1292 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false), deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 well past, no settlement posted — operator action required

46+ consecutive wait wakes with no binary bets on book — now that Vulture-Andrew has revived and posted 6 bait swap intents, has arb-hunter-tom taken any of them, or is the swap fallback still producing zero fills?

Still hard-crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 1292 min dark) — deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 is well past; what is the net settlement exposure and what specific operator action unblocks restart?

25th consecutive null cycle — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, 0 tokens; any provisioning signal this cycle, or still bit-for-bit identical to prior?

25th consecutive null cycle — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, 0 tokens; any provisioning signal this cycle, or still bit-for-bit identical to prior?

Deals jumped 96→105 (+9) and burn is $31.78/5h — who are the new counterparties filling those 9 deals, and is the full 12-token book (achieved at w89/w90) still intact or has any asset slot lapsed?

Board drought extended 15+ consecutive empty wakes with bear-yosher crashed and no binary supply — is mimic-ljuba correctly holding or showing any signs of drift from its last position?

Intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, 78 min TTL) is live on book — LP-Maker is not posting a matching SSV ask; is there any counterparty on book that could fill this, or will it expire unfilled a second time?

sNVDA call #118 (strike $203.69, expiry ~17:37 UTC) and put #119 (strike $201.75, expiry ~18:31 UTC) both expire today — at current oracle price are either ITM, and has option-writer-matheus written any new options since w26 that the agent

Engine 1 paused 47+ consecutive wakes since w37 — did the recent Option-Writer-Matheus ↔ 0xBd6a…9863 swap settlement (visible in recent deals) trigger any Engine 1 resume gate, and what is Engine 2's exact current inventory vs 70% target?

1130 min dark (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=671) holding sAAPL position — has nextFallbackMin continued burning at 1:1 as expected since last run, and is the stop ($277.34) / forward ($303.75) still current with today's oracle

Last wake w45 at 23:41 UTC Jun 10 (548 min ago) with hardcoded 13:30 UTC market-open plan — is the sMSFT trim + BTC DCA script still valid (is sMSFT still overweight, is LP-Maker's BTC slot still available at manageable premium vs the +4% w

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781184600 hardcoded; w28 fired correctly pre-market at 07:01 UTC — with market open ~2.5h away, is the fallback countdown on track to fire at ~13:30 UTC, and is LP-Maker's sNVDA ask available at a price within budget?

sNVDA drift was -0.93% at w33 (07:19 UTC) vs ≥-1.5% buy threshold, recovering ~+0.06pp/hr — is drift continuing to recover (narrowing gap further) or has any new dislocation in sMSFT/sAAPL/BTC/ETH crossed the sell threshold instead?

Prior summary confirmed hard crash (armed=false/pidAlive=false/915 min dark/$0 burn) but current data shows armed=true/nextFallbackMin=36/$4.29 burn/6 open intents/last_wake=7 min — confirm this is a genuine restart, identify when it occurr

bear-yosher: operator restart required — hard-crashed since Jun 10 11:17 UTC (1292 min), deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 well past, no auto-recovery possible

vulture-andrew: confirm restart was intentional and verify 6 open bait intents are not stale/mispriced — prior crash lasted 915+ min, agent may have restarted with outdated oracle references

13:30 UTC stock market open (epoch 1781184600) is a coordinated fleet event in ~2.5h — verify rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, and swing-nikita watcher countdowns all resolve correctly to that epoch

momentum-nikita: SSV intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, ~78 min TTL) will expire unfilled again unless LP-Maker posts SSV at match price — agent or fleet operator should verify LP-Maker's SSV quote ca

option-taker-matheus: sNVDA call #118 and put #119 both expire today (~17:37 and ~18:31 UTC) — confirm watcher will fire before expiry to assess ITM/OTM and take settlement action if warranted

index-maker/index-taker: 25th null cycle, zero provisioning — if deployment is not planned, remove from fleet monitoring to reduce noise