Arb-Hunter-Tom

bestTake=null both surfaces. No binary bets. New stock intents non-actionable (no CEX feed, not held). SSV sell-edge dir

new mSSV-sell (clip ≤1.7714, implied ≥ ssvCex×1.001) OR binary bet OR 30-min fallback

Summary: Counter still at 11 — no net-new fills in w192–w193 (+2 wakes since last run, now 20+ consecutive waits). One credible near-miss: w193 logged SSV +100bps gap but the direction check appears to have blocked it (log truncated mid-rejection: 'SSV +100bps gap dir ->'). Binary bet surface structurally dead — Bear-Yosher 752 min crashed = zero binary bets posting.

Deal counter frozen at 11 through w193. CEX-vs-oracle edge surfaced once at +100bps SSV (w193) but was blocked — direction leg check is the suspect. Binary surface dead while Bear-Yosher stays crashed. mBTC #1294 +371bps and #1280 +271bps are structurally unaffordable, not logic bugs.

Bear-Yosher (752 min dark) is the sole binary bet poster — 0 binary bets in book across w186–w193. LP-Maker-Matheus active (97 deals) but BTC/ETH clips exceed balance; SSV-sell path hit +100bps at w193 but was direction-rejected. Rebalancer-Lior #1280 is +271bps but clip unaffordable.

Sound and disciplined — correctly skipping unaffordable BTC/ETH clips, surfacing CEX margins per wake, logging near-misses precisely. The 100bps SSV block at w193 may be correct (direction genuinely wrong) or a logic false-negative — truncated log makes it unverifiable. Reasoning solves the right problem; the edge drought is the market's fault, not the agent's.

Binary bet appears (BINARY_BET_HASHES matched, intentId > HIGH_WATER=1302)

SSV-sell intent appears (clip ≤ 1.7714, implied ≥ CEX×1.001)

MISSING: no trigger for ETH/BTC swaps when/if wallet balance grows sufficient (acknowledged structural gap)

Primary swap counterparty — 97 deals, ok health; SSV-sell path is the live edge; BTC/ETH clips structurally unaffordable

Sole binary bet poster; arb's primary surface depends on it

CRASHED — 752 min dark, zero bets postin

Could post binary bets arb could take; 16 deals, ok health — no evidence of recent binary bet posts

Posted #1280 (+271bps) and #1294 (+371bps) — both mBTC, both unaffordable clip

Possible: SSV +100bps gap at w193 blocked by direction check — if the direction rejection is a false negative (e.g. leg polarity check inverted), this was a fillable trade. mBTC #1294 +371bps is a balance-floor miss, not a logic miss. Binary surface: no bets to take, no opportunity to miss.

HIGH_WATER filter (id > 1302) prevents spurious re-fires on stale intents

Binary bet template hash set is precise — no false positives

SSV CEX fetch with 30s cache limits external call rate

SSV_BALANCE guard (clip ≤ 1.7714) prevents overfill

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a taker waiting on book events

Skips BTC/ETH/stocks explicitly to reduce structural churn — correct given balance constraints

SSV_BALANCE hardcoded at 1.7714 — stale after any fill, requires manual script update

Direction rejection at w193 is silent: 'SSV +100bps gap dir ->' truncated with no logged detail — cannot verify if correct or a bug

Log the exact direction-check rejection path when a ≥50bps SSV gap is blocked (print which leg is wrong-direction and at what implied price) — this is the one change that makes the w193 near-miss verifiable and either confirms correct behav

SSV_BALANCE hardcoded — stale after fills

SSV_BALANCE = 1.7714 is a literal in the script source. If arb-hunter-tom fills an SSV-sell intent, the constant is stale until the next manual script update, and the balance guard will over-restrict or under-restrict fills.

Fetch SSV wallet balance live via belt at each poll iteration (or once per wake) instead of using a hardcoded literal.

Direction rejection at w193 unverifiable — potential missed fill

w193 logged 'SSV +100bps gap dir ->' with the reasoning truncated. The +100bps exceeds the 50bps MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT threshold, so the only remaining gate is the direction check. If that check inverts the legs (wantsLeg/givesLeg polarity), a valid 100bps trade was blocked.

Add a verbose log line inside the direction-check branch: print the intent id, clip, impliedPrice, ssvCex, and which direction leg is failing so the next wake can confirm correct or incorrect rejection.

Bear-Yosher crash eliminates binary bet supply fleet-wide

Bear-Yosher (752 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false) is the primary binary bet poster. With it crashed, arb-hunter-tom's binary surface has been structurally dead for 12+ hours — 0 binary bets in book across all recent wakes.

Fleet: resurrect Bear-Yosher or route binary bet posting to Mimic-Ljuba as a temporary supply source so the taker surface has material to work with.

Bear-Yosher

Exactly-one-resting invariant violated (836 expired). Posted 869 to maintain bear anchor. No BinaryBets available to tak

intent 869 fill/expiry OR new BinaryBet OR ETH/BTC +1.5% OR deal 75 near-expiry OR 4h

Summary: 874 min dark (was 817 min prior, +57 min). Armed=false, pidAlive=false — confirmed hard crash, state unchanged. Deal 75 betExpiry 1781139624 (00:58 UTC Jun 11) has now passed; the watcher died ~13.5h before the DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS trigger could fire. Intent 869 has also expired (open_intents=0, was 1 at prior summary). Three deals remain 'live' with Mimic-Ljub

Hard crash at 874 min with 3 unsettled live deals owed against Mimic-Ljuba. Deal 75 betExpiry passed at 00:58 UTC Jun 11 — BTC was 3.49% below strike at last live data (w39, ~10:17 Jun 10), meaning it was in-the-money at the watcher's last read, but the crashed agent cannot claim settlement. Intent 869 expired unfilled; no anchor has been on the book for 874 min.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false. Last PID 6802 died between w40 (10:39 Jun 10) and w41 (11:17 Jun 10); w41's watcher set DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS=(1781139624-300)*1000 but process expired ~13.5h before that timestamp. All 17 historical deals are ↔ Mimic-Ljuba. 3 deals currently show status='live', none

Sound and on-mission through w41. The DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS early-wake design was correct (5 min buffer before expiry). The crash is a platform/process failure — the logic itself was not solving the wrong problem. No churn or re-derivation pattern; the last 4 wakes show tight state-aware reasoning (duplicate-cancel at w37, deal-74 settlement confirmed at w39, anchor re-post at w41). The only fault is

Intent 869 fill or expiry (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet on book (newMatches on templateHash)

Sole counterparty across all 17 deals; takes BELOW binary bets nearly instantly per w36b. Still holds the 3 live deals.

Takes near-decided BinaryBets; could overlap with bear-yosher's BELOW anchors if BTC stays deep below strike.

Unmeasurable — watcher dead since 11:17 Jun 10, blind to book for 874 min. Intent 869 expired unfilled; no anchor has been resting for the entire crash window. Any BinaryBets posted by other agents during this period were invisible to bear-yosher.

DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS early-wake (5 min buffer) is exactly right for a time-sensitive bet settlement — zero polling waste, fires once at the right moment

Adverse price thresholds (+1.5% on both ETH and BTC) directly implement the halt condition from mission

New BinaryBet detection via templateHash filter is zero-LLM and book-aware, appropriate for a taker-first agent

4h fallback prevents permanent sleep if all other triggers miss

No process self-resurrection or health-ping — watcher dies silently with no alert or restart mechanism

DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS is a one-shot wall-clock check inside runWatchLoop; if the loop itself dies, the timestamp is never evaluated

Add a keepalive/heartbeat emission (e.g. write a timestamp to a well-known file every loop iteration) so external monitoring can detect watcher death within one poll cycle and trigger an operator alert or auto-restart — this single change w

No watcher self-restart or death detection

All 3 crashed agents (bear-yosher 874 min, vulture-andrew 673 min, stacker-massimo 722 min) share the same failure mode: the watcher process dies silently and nothing restarts it. This is a platform gap, not per-agent logic.

SDK-level: armWatcher() should register a PID file and a supervisor (or cron) that restarts the watcher if the PID file is stale beyond 2× the poll interval.

3 live deals with Mimic-Ljuba cannot settle without operator restart

2×BinaryBet + 1×custom, all status='live', all ↔ Mimic-Ljuba. Deal 75 betExpiry 1781139624 passed; if BTC was below strike at expiry (it was 3.49% below at w39, ~10:17 Jun 10), bear-yosher is owed a payout it cannot claim. Custom deal has no expiry in view — unknown duration of exposure.

Operator: restart bear-yosher immediately. On first wake, agent should enumerate live deal IDs, check expiry + settlement status, and call any required settlement tool before posting new intents.

Intent 869 expired, book anchor-less for 874 min

open_intents=0. The exactly-one-resting invariant has been violated since the crash. On restart, the first action must be to re-post a fresh BELOW anchor before any other logic runs.

On restart wake: check open_intents first; if 0, post anchor before scanning for bets to take. This is already the agent's pattern (w41 did it correctly) — just needs execution.

Index-Maker

Summary: 18th consecutive null cycle — no operator action detected. Prior conclusion stands unchanged: address=null (wallet never provisioned), 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. The focus question answer is unambiguously NO — nothing has changed since last run. Not a crash; simply never initi

Zero delta for 18 cycles. No wallet, no script, no wakes, no watcher. The agent does not exist at runtime — only its mission CLAUDE.md has been written. Operator must provision a wallet and deploy a wake script before any analysis beyond this point is meaningful.

tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null — every initialization signal is null or zero

No reasoning has ever executed. No cycles to evaluate. The mission is defined but the agent has never run.

MISSING: no wake script exists — nothing can fire

Designed as the SHORT-side taker of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-maker would post

Also uninitialized (health=unknown, 0 de

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never run and has no book visibility

No script exists at all — wake_script_source=null

No fallback timer, no trigger condition, no watcher armed

Provision a wallet and write a wake script that wakes on a timer (e.g. every 30-60 min), checks for an existing open LONG IndexBasket intent on-chain, posts a new one if none exists, and publishes the contract source to the indexer — the en

Wallet never provisioned

address=null across all 18 observed cycles. The agent cannot post intents, pay gas, or interact with any on-chain surface without a funded wallet.

Operator must generate/assign a wallet address and fund it with USDC + gas before any further initialization step

Wake script missing

wake_script_source=null — no current.ts exists. The watcher cannot be armed without a script.

Write and deploy current.ts: timer-based wake, check for open LONG IndexBasket intent, post if none, publish contract source to indexer

index-taker also uninitialized — market will not clear even after index-maker comes online

The only designed counterparty (index-taker) is in the same null state. Even a correctly running index-maker will find zero takers.

Initialize index-taker in parallel; both agents must be live for any deal to form in this market

Zero delta for 18 cycles. No wallet, no script, no wakes, no watcher. The agent does not exist at runtime — only its mission CLAUDE.md has been written. Operator must provision a wallet and deploy a wake script before any analysis beyond this point is meaningful.

Index-Taker

Summary: 18th consecutive null cycle — zero operator action, zero delta vs prior. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Step-1 focus question answered: no operator action has initialized this agent or index-maker this cycle. Funnel now at ~1318 intents with zero IndexBasket anywhere; index-taker remains structurally inert

No change since last summary. Both index-taker and index-maker remain uninitialized (armed=false, pidAlive=false on both). Zero IndexBasket intents exist in the 1318-intent funnel — index-taker has nothing to audit or cross, and cannot self-bootstrap without an upstream LONG from index-maker.

0 wakes, $0 tokens lifetime, wake_script_source=null — agent has never run. 0 IndexBasket intents in 1318 total funnel entries. Only viable counterparty (index-maker) is identically uninitialized: armed=false, pidAlive=false.

No reasoning to evaluate — agent has never executed. Not a reasoning failure; a pre-initialization failure. The design (fail-closed audit before crossing) is sound on paper but irrelevant until index-maker posts a single intent.

MISSING: no wake script loaded — nothing can fire this agent

MISSING: no IndexBasket intents exist in the book — even a running watcher would find nothing to act on

sole supplier of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to cross SHORT

crashed — armed=false, pidAlive=false, n

none — zero IndexBasket intents exist in the 1318-intent funnel; there is nothing to miss

wake_script_source is null — agent has never been initialized and has no watcher at all

no fallback timer, no armed state, no pid

Operator must initialize both index-maker and index-taker together; index-taker's watcher should poll the book for open IndexBasket LONG intents and wake on any match, with a cadence of ~15–30 min and a fallback of ~60 min

index-taker never initialized — no wake script, no watcher, never run

18 consecutive null cycles. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Operator has not bootstrapped the agent.

Operator runs the agent init flow to load a wake script; watcher should poll for open IndexBasket LONG intents at ~15–30 min cadence with 60 min fallback

index-maker (sole counterparty) is also uninitialized — unblocking index-taker alone is insufficient

index-maker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 deals, health=unknown. Both agents must be bootstrapped together or index-taker will run a live watcher against an empty book indefinitely.

Initialize index-maker first so it begins posting LONG IndexBasket intents; only then does initializing index-taker produce any activity

LP-Maker-Matheus

Cluster A expiry mandatory. SSV bid #1324 was -193bps vs oracle 2.14 (repost target -25bps to rebuild thin SSV inventory

cluster A pre-expiry ts 1781142636 (~02:10 UTC) or new fillable swap | 30min fallback

12/12 quotes posted; 6 active counterparties (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, 0xBd6a…9863, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita); deal velocity limited by taker arrivals not LP quality. w85–w90 show 0 fills across multiple wakes despite tight quotes — thin taker side, not mispricing.

Cluster expiry guard: EXPIRY_FIRE_TS_SEC=1781133228 (~23:18 UTC) fires 5min before #1281–#1286 cluster expires

New fillable swap: newMatches() detects net-new intents where posterWants ∈ HOLD set

MISSING: inversion/spread-check trigger — concurrent-session inversions detected only at next poll (60s lag), causing arb bleed per event

Active arb taker; resurrection confirmed armed=true/pidAlive=true; appears 8× in recent deal list including w84 arb fill

Most frequent recent counterparty (~8 fills in tail); health=stuck but still settling LP intents

5 recent fills but current 4.96 USDC intent is sub-LP-minimum lot — won't clear until lior posts ≥12 USDC

2 recent fills; w23 20 USDC intent on book (18 min left) is above minimum

External wallet; 7 fills in recent tail — reliable taker source outside named fleet

Expiry cluster guard pins exact ts 1781133228 (5min before #1281–#1286 cluster) — no stale quotes

newMatches() on HOLD set: only fires on intents LP can profitably fill, not its own stale posts

60s poll interval — not sub-minute; patient cadence appropriate for 22-min avg gap

No oracle price guards (per playbook rule — avoids loop storms)

50min fallback ensures watcher doesn't go dark between clusters

No spread/inversion check: concurrent-session inversions (flagged w84, w87, w88) are discovered only at next 60s poll tick, allowing ~1min of arb exposure per e

Concurrent-session inversion recurs on every oracle move

w84, w87, w88 all report concurrent session posting inverted bids when oracle moves positive. Each event costs ~$0.076 arb loss plus a cleanup wake. Root: two watcher sessions posting simultaneously create crossed spreads. Watcher detects it reactively at next poll (up to 60s exposure).

Add inversion check in runWatchLoop body: compare own bid vs own ask prices per asset from readOpenIntents; fireWake immediately on cross. Also investigate why two concurrent watcher sessions arise — may need PID lock enforcement in armWatcher.

Token cost critical: $76.51/5h = 53.4% of pool

96 deals settling at $0.82/wake average; 87 wakes × $0.82 ≈ $71 but 5h cost is $76.51 with 80/87 repeat wakes. At this burn rate LP's token pool (~$143 implied at 53.4%) exhausts in ~5h. Repeat-wake rate 92% (80/87) suggests most wakes are maintenance not fills.

Core/SDK: add per-agent token budget cap and alert threshold. Agent-side: w85 correctly no-ops when nothing actionable — ensure repeat-wake suppression logic is consistently applied to avoid unnecessary LLM calls on zero-action wakes.

Mimic-Ljuba

No BinaryBet on board to accept; no recent flow to mirror. Board empty for 10+ consecutive wakes (wakes 57–67). One deli

new BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge (or 60 min fallback)

Summary: The 3 live Bear↔Mimic deals (2× BinaryBet, 1× custom) confirmed oracle-settled: Mimic reports zero live deals from w63 onward, validating that oracle resolution runs without Bear-Yosher's participation. Bear has now been dark 872 min; board has had zero BinaryBet supply across wakes w57–w68. One self-originated BTC bear bet (intent #1088, w61, 65% fair vs 62

Mimic is correctly idle with $63.62 USDC fully preserved; the 3 Bear↔Mimic deals all resolved via oracle as expected. The binary market is structurally dark — Bear-Yosher (sole BinaryBet source) has been offline 872 min, and the single self-originated bet (#1088) expired within 2 min. Nothing for Mimic to do until binary supply returns.

Bear-Yosher dark 872 min; wakes w57–w68 all report empty binary board; Mimic's 16 settled deals are exclusively Bear↔Mimic; no other fleet agent is actively posting BinaryBets (polymarket-ljuba has 2 total deals, low throughput)

Sound and disciplined — 3pp edge floor and 1-deliberate-move/wake rule enforced consistently across 11 consecutive empty-board wakes (w58–w68). No churn, no resource waste. The only concern is intent #1088 (w61) expiring in ~2 min: if the TTL on self-originated bets is set too short, Mimic cannot generate its own flow even when edge is real. Solving the right problem (wait for supply or self-origi

New BinaryBet intent appears on board (template hash 0x09cd...060c)

MISSING: trigger on newly settled BinaryBets in recent flow — the mirroring half of Mimic's mission requires watching settled history, not just live intents; cu

sole BinaryBet poster to date; all 16 Mimic deals trace back to Bear

mission includes posting small-shade binaries; could provide mirror flow, but only 2 lifetime deals — throughput too low to sustain Mimic's

posts baited near-decided binary intents — Mimic could take these; but vulture is crashed 673 min

taker of near-decided binaries, not a poster; won't create flow for Mimic to mirror

None — board has been empty for BinaryBets since Bear crashed. No takeable intents existed to miss. Self-originated #1088 expired in 2 min (w61→w62); whether that represents a missed re-post opportunity depends on whether the 3pp edge persisted after expiry (unmeasurable from current data).

Fires precisely on new BinaryBet template-hash matches — zero false-positives on non-binary intents

Baseline seen-set pattern avoids re-firing on stale intents already evaluated

60-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient responder with no live flow

Zero-LLM, no 'book non-empty' trap, correct arming pattern

Covers only the 'accept winnable open bets' path — the 'mirror recent BinaryBets' self-origination path has no dedicated trigger; relies entirely on the 60-min

No detection of Bear-Yosher restart or any other BinaryBet poster coming online — a new poster would be caught only on first intent appearance, which is fine, b

Add a parallel settled-deal check: after populating the seen set, also query recently settled BinaryBets (last N min) and fire if any new settlement appeared since last wake — this gives Mimic a sharp mirroring trigger without waiting the f

Self-originated intent TTL too short (expired in ~2 min)

Intent #1088 was posted at w61 (06-10T17:45) and reported fully expired at w62 (06-10T17:47, 2 min later). A 2-min exposure window is too short for a counterparty to discover and take a BinaryBet, especially in a thin market. The self-origination path is functionally disabled.

Audit the TTL / deadline passed when posting self-originated BinaryBets in Mimic's CLAUDE.md/tools; increase to at least 30–60 min to match the watcher fallback cadence. Verify the posted intent deadline field matches intended duration.

Mirroring trigger missing from watcher

Watcher only fires on live board appearances; self-origination from recent settled flow (the 'mirror' path) has no dedicated wake signal and depends on the 60-min fallback — stale by definition.

Add settled-BinaryBet polling to current.ts as described in suggestedChange above.

Binary market structurally dark — sole supply source offline 872 min

Mimic has zero reliable counterparties while Bear-Yosher is down. Polymarket-Ljuba is the only other potential binary poster but has only 2 lifetime deals. No recovery path exists until Bear restarts or a new binary maker is deployed.

Restart or investigate bear-yosher (872 min crash). Separately, encourage polymarket-ljuba to increase binary posting rate to provide an alternative supply chain for Mimic.

Momentum-Nikita

All 5 settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus (3), Rebalancer-Lior (1), LP-Maker again (1). Intent #1318 is a resting 25 USDC→11.31 SSV bid waiting for a SSV seller; no SSV sellers currently on book (watcher has not fired on newMatches). Market's fault — not agent's.

intent #1318 resolved (filled or expired via ownIntentResolved poll every 60s)

new SSV seller appears on book (newMatches against isSSVSeller filter)

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (effectiveDeadline = min(8h fallback, US_OPEN_MS))

MISSING: oracle price drift check — if SSV moves >1–2pp from $2.21 since w22, no early re-wake fires; intent silently mispriced until expiry

Sole active hub, 8 open intents, 3 of 5 momentum deals settled here; could hold SSV inventory

Settled 1 swap with momentum-nikita; DCA-style so may periodically give SSV for USDC

Takes SSV intents (buys SSV), doesn't give SSV — opposite direction to intent #1318

Fades dislocations — if SSV is stretched above trailing avg, swing-nikita may sell/give SSV

ownIntentResolved catches fill or expiry without waiting for fallback

newMatches + isSSVSeller filter directly serves the mission (take the next SSV seller)

US market open trigger correct — agent must re-rank with stocks when equities open

effectiveDeadline = min(fallback, US_OPEN_MS) cleanly prevents oversleeping past stocks

60s poll cadence appropriate — not sub-minute spam, actionable on book events

No oracle price drift check: intent #1318 posted at $2.21/SSV 25 min ago with no mechanism to detect SSV moving materially; if SSV is now $2.35, the resting bid

Watcher baseline (seenIntents) is set once at first loop — if watcher restarts mid-session, seenIntents resets and new-seller logic skips one tick

Intent #1318 has no oracle-drift guard

Watcher polls for fill/expiry and new sellers but never compares current SSV oracle price to the posted $2.21 rate. A >1.5% move since w22 (25 min ago) makes the intent silently stale until it expires at ~08:24 UTC or fallback fires at ~08:30 UTC — wasting up to 7.5h of potential re-pricing.

In runWatchLoop body, after fetching belt: fetch SSV oracle price, compute drift from 2.21; if |drift| > 0.015 call fireWake with reason string. One oracle read per 60s loop tick.

seenIntents baseline resets on watcher restart

seenIntents is initialized to null and set on first loop tick. If the process restarts mid-session (as happened at w15), the first tick re-baselines and skips firing on any sellers already on book — a one-tick delay in a fast market.

Persist seenIntents to data/wake/seen-intents.json on each update and reload on startup; fall back to empty set if file missing (fire on all current sellers at first tick, which is acceptable).

Option-Taker-Matheus

new audited Option intent appears OR deals settle window OR 23h fallback

Summary: Holds sNVDA call #118 (strike $203.69, prem $0.25, expiry ~17:37 UTC June 11) and put #119 (strike $201.75, prem $0.23, expiry ~18:31 UTC June 11) — unchanged since w26. Now 201 min since last wake (up from 140 min last run). Watcher armed/pidAlive=true, scanning every 60s; no new audited options on book. Correct behavior: supply from option-writer-matheus i

No new option intents since deal #119 (201 min ago) — the taker is correctly idle. Its 1141-min fallback fires ~45 min before deal #118's MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956), matching the settlement window by design. This is a functioning taker with a quiet supplier, not a broken agent.

All 4 settled deals trace to option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). Writer's nextFallbackMin=1144 confirms ~19h of silence ahead; 0 audited options on book for 201 min. Taker watcher polls every 60s and has not fired — book is genuinely empty.

Sound and on-mission. w25 (call #118): 'cheap optionality, 1.41%-OTM, 23h tail, 20x max pay' — quantitative. w26 (put #119): 'tight-to-the-money, thin premium, volatile sNVDA, 24h tail' — quantitative. No churn; silence between wakes is correct taker discipline when supply is absent.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f…ad63) — detected via 60s poll of open book

Settle window: nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956, ~17:37 UTC June 11 — 5 min before deal #118 expiry)

23h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1141, fires ~16:52 UTC June 11 — ~45 min before settle window)

Sole option supplier; all 4 deals sourced here. Writer is resting (~19h nextFallbackMin=1144) — next posts expected around w27/w28.

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents — could theoretically compete for the same intents, but does not supply options

None. Book has had 0 new audited option intents since w26. Watcher is polling correctly and would fire immediately on any new post.

Fires on new audited-hash option intents — exactly the signal this taker needs; can't fire on generic book activity

Settle-window trigger (MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS) aligns the 23h fallback with deal #118 expiry — agent wakes just before settlement, not randomly

First-poll baseline (seenIntentIds=null guard) prevents false-fires on stale intents already taken

60s cadence appropriate for an option book that posts infrequently

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to deal #118's window. After deals #118/#119 settle, any future deal taken will have a different expiry — the settle-

Replace the hardcoded MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS with a dynamic read of the agent's open deals' earliest expiry (subtract 300s), refreshed each poll loop. This keeps the settle-window trigger accurate after each new take without requiring a manual sc

Hardcoded settle-window timestamp goes stale after new deals

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 targets deal #118's expiry. Once #118/#119 settle and the agent takes a new option (different expiry), this check will never fire (past timestamp) — settle-timing precision is lost for all future deals.

Dynamically derive MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS each poll: read open deals, take min(expiry) - 300s. Store in a variable updated each loop iteration.

Single-supplier dependency on option-writer-matheus

4/4 deals from one counterparty. Writer is in a ~19h rest cycle (nextFallbackMin=1144). If writer crashes or shifts mission, taker has zero supply. No other agent currently posts audited-hash options.

Encourage a second option writer on the same audited template hash, or have option-writer-matheus post smaller batches more frequently so the taker has a steadier flow.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Perfect portfolio balance + calm market + Engine 1 paused due to 7 consecutive unfilled options (wakes 26−37) = no actio

120-min fallback to re-assess vol/ranking/buyer option intents

Summary: Pattern extends from 19+ to 23+ consecutive monitor-only wakes (w38 pause → w61 now). ETH/BTC drawdown marginally recovered from −4.3% to −4.11% (confirmed w55) but the 1% vol-spike threshold remains unmet — w61 explicitly confirms all three Engine 1 resume conditions false: no vol spike ≥1%, no ranking rotation, no buyer option intents on-chain. No new opti

Engine 1 correctly paused at w38 after 7 consecutive unfilled options (w26–w37) proved zero buyer demand; now 23+ monitor-only wakes with all three re-entry conditions still unmet per w61. Book at $95.91, drawdown −4.11% — stable but unmoved. No new option intents since w38; sNVDA #118/#119 already settled (0 open intents). This is disciplined waiting, not dysfunction.

7 consecutive unfilled option intents w26–w37 are the stated proof of zero buyer demand; Engine 2 (contrarian portfolio) in hold because no ranking rotation detected across w55–w61; drawdown −4.11% within 'secure' band per w55; settled_deals_detail shows only 1 custom (Option-Taker-Matheus, a prior

Sound and non-churning — the agent carries the same three explicit resume conditions (vol spike ≥1%, ranking rotation, buyer option intent visible) across every wake w55–w61 without re-deriving them. Engine 2 correctly holds without a rotation signal. No obsessive re-posting. One risk: the 1% threshold is checked manually each 120-min timer wake, so a vol spike that fires and fades within the 120-

120-min fallback timer via armWatcher / fireWake

MISSING: no event-driven vol-spike trigger — a ≥1% ETH/BTC move between wakes goes undetected until the next timer fires

Direct pairing for option-writing sleeve; 4 settled deals including 1 custom close already logged.

ok — active, but selective; will only ta

Primary swap counterparty for Engine 2 portfolio rebalancing; 102 deals, reliably active.

ok — 9 open intents across 6 pairs, heal

Could take near-decided options if Engine 1 were writing, but no evidence of direct option pairing.

None verifiable — Engine 1 correctly paused pending a demand signal that has not appeared; Engine 2 correctly holding pending a ranking rotation that has not fired; sNVDA options #118/#119 expiring today are already settled (0 open intents). Cannot score missed opportunities for an engine that is intentionally dormant pending a specific trigger.

120-min cadence is appropriately patient for a paused-engine agent waiting on low-frequency signals (vol spikes, ranking rotations)

Zero-LLM, deterministic fallback only — no book-sniff that could fire spuriously

30-second poll interval within the 120-min window is reasonable and non-spammy

No event-driven vol-spike trigger — if ETH/BTC moves ≥1% immediately after a wake, the agent waits up to 120 min before it even checks; a missed spike that reve

No trigger on buyer option intents appearing on-chain — the third resume condition is monitored only at manual LLM check time, not as a watcher event

Add a lightweight oracle-poll loop inside the watcher: every 5 min compare latest Pyth ETH/BTC price vs the price at wake-time; if drift ≥1%, fire immediately via fireWake('vol-spike detected') rather than waiting up to 120 min. This covers

Vol-spike trigger absent from watcher — 120-min blind window

Engine 1 resume condition #1 (vol spike ≥1%) is checked only at manual LLM wake, not continuously. A spike that fires and reverts within a 120-min window is invisible. With crypto intraday vol this is a real gap.

Add a 5-min oracle-price poll inside current.ts: store entry price on arm, compare each tick, fireWake on ≥1% drift. Pure JS, zero-LLM.

Buyer-intent trigger absent — relies on LLM to scan the book each wake

Resume condition #3 (buyer option intents on-chain) is not watched event-driven. If option-taker-matheus posts a qualifying intent between wakes, option-writer-matheus won't see it for up to 120 min.

Add a book-poll inside the watcher that checks for open Option intents with a buyer on the relevant assets; fire immediately if one appears. This is mission-critical for Engine 1 demand detection.

No SDK helper for 'fire on vol spike from oracle' pattern

Multiple agents (option-writer-matheus, bear-yosher, momentum-nikita) need a vol-threshold watcher. Each is re-implementing or skipping it. A shared watchVolSpike(asset, thresholdPct, fireLabel) exported from wake-watch.js would eliminate the gap fleet-wide.

Add watchVolSpike(asset, thresholdPct, checkIntervalMs, fireLabel) to sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js — polls Pyth oracle, compares to entry price, calls fireWake on breach.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL position well-anchored within weekly horizon, no exit triggers hit. No new dir

Summary: Still holding 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 entry (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / horizon Jun12 20:00 UTC). Silence extended from 592 min (prior summary) to 712 min — 120 additional minutes, ~120 additional 60s polls — with no stop or forward trigger, confirming price has stayed within bounds the entire interval. Watcher armed/pidAlive=true; nextFallbackMin=108

712 min of unbroken 60s-poll silence is strong indirect evidence sAAPL price remains between $277.34–$303.75. The next mandatory wake is the hardcoded Jun 11 20:00 UTC fallback (~1089 min away), designed to check exit liquidity 24h before the Jun 12 20:00 UTC horizon — lp-maker-matheus (102 deals, healthy) is the natural swap counterparty for the sAAPL exit.

2 lifetime settled deals; 0 open intents; 18/26 repeat wakes all returning 'no mispriced opportunities' — agent is correctly selective (Polymarket-valuation threshold not met), currently in position-hold phase rather than taker-hunt phase. No new binary/option intents have appeared that clear the ed

Sound, solving the right problem. W25 self-corrected horizon from Jun10 16:00 UTC → Jun12 20:00 UTC (correct), and w26 preemptively approved sAAPL spend before the exit swap was needed — both are operationally disciplined. The 18 repeat 'no-opportunity' wakes are correct behavior for a value-threshold buyer, not churn: the agent woke on new intent events, evaluated, found nothing mispriced, and re

blockchain time ≥ 1781294400 (Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon expiry)

new binary/option intent appears on book

fallback: Jun11 20:00 UTC = unix 1781208000 (~1089 min, fires next)

Primary exit counterparty for sAAPL swap at Jun11 20:00 UTC wake; 102 deals, healthy, deep inventory

Source of option intents that polymarket-ljuba values vs Polymarket distribution; sNVDA #118/#119 expire today

BinaryBet poster (crypto-down / equity-up bets), but BinaryBet surface is dead — no live bets to value

Taker of binaries, not poster — wrong side for polymarket-ljuba's taker role

unmeasurable: watcher fires on new intents and agent evaluates at wake-time, but no settled_deals_detail and no rejected-intent log means we cannot confirm whether any Polymarket-valued binary/option was available and passed over. No positive evidence of a miss; no positive evidence of a pass.

Fires on the two price levels that matter (stop/forward) via 60s oracle poll — right cadence for intraday equity moves

Fires on new binary/option intents — ensures the agent doesn't miss a freshly posted mispriced bet while in hold mode

Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback is intentionally 24h before expiry, giving time to line up exit makers — correct operational design

Reads horizonTs from state.json at runtime rather than hardcoding, so the w25 self-correction is honored

Zero-LLM, has fallback floor of 4h (Math.max), can't hang indefinitely

lastWakeBets is null on first loop iteration — first pass just seeds the set and never fires on any intents present at startup; a brief blind window on each wat

Seed lastWakeBets from the intent list on startup (before entering the watch loop) so the first poll comparison is live immediately — eliminates the one-cycle blind window on watcher restart.

One-cycle intent blind spot on watcher restart

lastWakeBets=null on startup means the first poll just initializes the set; any binary/option intent already on the book at restart is never seen as 'new'. Low-severity given fallback coverage, but worth fixing before the Jun11 20:00 UTC wake when the agent reassesses.

Move the intent fetch above the runWatchLoop call, seed lastWakeBets before loop entry, then compare inside the loop as normal.

Single reliable exit counterparty (lp-maker-matheus) for sAAPL swap

reliableCounterparties=1 for the exit swap. If lp-maker-matheus is unavailable at Jun11 20:00 UTC or Jun12 20:00 UTC, the exit has no fallback taker. Bear-yosher (stuck) and swing-nikita both touch sAAPL but are not reliable swap posters.

At the Jun11 20:00 UTC wake the agent should explicitly check whether lp-maker-matheus has open sAAPL swap capacity and flag early if not — don't assume exit liquidity.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC #1294 filled this wake — only discovery action needed. No capital to deploy until stocks open and sMSFT trim generat

US stock open 2026-06-11T13:30 UTC — sMSFT trim + BTC DCA

Summary: Trigger has NOT fired this cycle. nextFallbackMin dropped 786→729 (~57 min elapsed), confirming the watcher is live and counting down to the 14:00 UTC Jun-11 fallback (~12.2 hrs out). US stock open (13:30 UTC) is ~11.6 hrs ahead. 15 settled deals unchanged — no capital deployed since BTC #1294 filled at +4% premium in w45. Agent is correctly idle: no open in

Trigger has not fired; watcher is correctly counting down (nextFallbackMin 786→729, ~57 min elapsed). 15 deals unchanged, 0 open intents. Agent is structurally parked — no capital until sMSFT trim at 13:30 UTC Jun 11. Nothing is broken.

w45 reasoning: 'No capital to deploy until stocks open and sMSFT trim generates proceeds.' BTC #1294 (the last trade) consumed remaining crypto budget. sMSFT is overweight but untradeable until market opens. Stock close = no deployable capital = correct idle.

Sound and on-mission. The premium escalation ladder (oracle→+1.47%→+2.07%→+3%→+4%) across w41–w44 was disciplined: each failure was diagnosed and escalated correctly. w45 correctly concluded the cycle was complete and no further action was possible until stock open. The agent is NOT re-deriving or churning — it reached a terminal state for this epoch and set a time-trigger. Reasoning quality is hi

Time-based: Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS (2026-06-11T13:30:00Z) — fires runWatchLoop check every 60 s

Fallback: armWatcher at 2026-06-11T14:00:00Z (~729 min from now)

4 of 7 recent settled deals; 9 open intents across sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL — sMSFT is in book, which is exactly what rebalancer needs

1 recent settled deal; arb-hunter takes near-oracle swaps opportunistically — could fill a BTC DCA slice if priced near oracle

1 recent settled deal; momentum rotates into strong movers — could cross with rebalancer's trim if momentum is selling the same asset rebala

None. Agent explicitly verified zero deployable capital (w45: 'Capital fully committed') and correctly identified no actionable book opportunities within budget constraints. No intents were posted that rebalancer could have taken.

Time-triggered on the exact market-open event the agent needs (13:30 UTC stock open) — not polling the book, which would be irrelevant while stocks are closed

30-minute fallback buffer (14:00 UTC) is appropriately tight — catches any loop hiccup without long drift

Zero-LLM, 60-second poll interval is correct for a time-based condition

Label is precise: 'US stock open 2026-06-11T13:30 UTC — sMSFT trim + BTC DCA' leaves no ambiguity for the next wake

FALLBACK_MS = Math.max(..., 5 * 60_000): if the process restarts after 14:00 UTC (e.g. crash+reboot), the fallback clamps to 5 minutes rather than 0, which is f

No check for LP-Maker-Matheus posting a sMSFT sell intent before stock open (unlikely while markets are closed, but possible if LP pre-posts)

After stock open fires: add a guard that if STOCK_OPEN_MS is already in the past at process start, call fireWake() immediately rather than relying on the 5-min clamp. One line: `if (Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS) { fireWake("US stock market a

Post-crash restart could miss stock-open trigger silently

If the watcher process dies and restarts after 13:30 UTC, FALLBACK_MS clamps to 5 min and fires via the fallback path — which is correct behavior but only by accident. The explicit time-trigger branch never fires because the condition is already true at start.

Add `if (Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS) fireWake(...)` before armWatcher so a cold-start after market open still fires the wake immediately.

BTC DCA premium ceiling not documented

Agent escalated to +4% (w44) before filling. The next BTC underweight episode will restart the ladder. There is no stated ceiling or 'give up' threshold — if LP widens further, the agent could post indefinitely above oracle with no terminal state.

In CLAUDE.md, define a max premium (e.g. +5%) and an explicit 'defer to next epoch' rule if that ceiling is hit without a fill.

Trigger has not fired; watcher is correctly counting down (nextFallbackMin 786→729, ~57 min elapsed). 15 deals unchanged, 0 open intents. Agent is structurally parked — no capital until sMSFT trim at 13:30 UTC Jun 11. Nothing is broken.

Stacker-Massimo

Bid is tracking oracle correctly (posted at oracle×0.99 when oracle=$207.92; oracle unchanged). No sweepable sell-side.

Summary: Pre-open hold continues correctly. Watcher countdown has advanced from nextFallbackMin=189 (last run) to 129 now — consistent with ~60 min elapsed, no drift. Still armed (pidAlive=true) for epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC, ~99 min away from ~11:51 UTC now). Portfolio unchanged: 0.004928 sNVDA ($1.02), 9.00 USDC free. Both settled deals were with LP-Maker-Matheus

Watcher is correctly armed to fire at 13:30 UTC equity open (epoch 1781098200, fallback at 14:00 UTC). LP-Maker-Matheus is live with sNVDA quotes (12 USDC lot posted), and Stacker has 2 confirmed fills with LP-Maker proving the sub-lot fill path works. 9.00 USDC remains to deploy at 0.50 USDC/wake (~18 more wakes to exhaust budget).

Pre-market window; CLAUDE.md enforces 09:30–16:00 ET only. No fills possible now by design. 2 settled deals both with LP-Maker-Matheus confirm the path clears at open.

Sound and solving the right problem. w20 correctly identified 1.01% oracle drift and rotated intent 752→753 at refreshed price (oracle×0.99). w21–w26 held cleanly on market-hours logic with no redundant on-chain action. No churn — 22 repeat wakes are pre-open holds, not re-deriving the same bad move.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) via 30-second poll loop

fallback at 14:00 UTC (open + 30 min) if poll misses

Both settled deals were LP-Maker fills; LP has live sNVDA quote (12 USDC lot) and is confirmed able to fill Stacker's 0.50 USDC slices

none — pre-market, trading correctly blocked by CLAUDE.md market-hours rule; LP-Maker's sNVDA quote is live but Stacker cannot and should not act before 13:30 UTC

Fires exactly at epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) — the only moment Stacker is allowed to act

30-second poll cadence is appropriate: lightweight, zero-LLM, no book dependency

Fallback at open+30 min (14:00 UTC) is a sensible safety net; nextFallbackMin=129 confirms it resolves to ~14:00 UTC from current ~11:51 UTC

No book-watching needed for a pure DCA mission — correctly omitted

fallbackMs when already past open evaluates to 30 min from invocation time, which is correct but implicit — a comment would prevent future confusion

No functional change needed; the script is mission-fit. Optional: add inline comment explaining the post-open fallbackMs edge case for maintainability.

LP lot-size headroom shrinks as sNVDA price rises

LP posts 12 USDC lots; Stacker posts 0.50 USDC. Confirmed fills show LP accepts sub-lot today, but if LP tightens minimums or oracle price moves, 0.50 USDC may become un-fillable. Currently 9.00 USDC / 18 wakes remaining.

Monitor: if next fill at 13:30 fails despite LP live, check whether LP minimum crossed 0.50 USDC threshold and adjust slice size in CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

SSV blocked by zero inventory. sNVDA sub-threshold. All stocks market-hours blocked (01:28 UTC). No resting intents matc

Summary: Three-wake DCA sequence confirmed: w21 (−1.75%, 18 USDC→0x437), w22 (−1.92%, 18 USDC→0x448), w23 (−2.18%, 20 USDC→0x045e). 0x448 resolved (watcher fired and re-armed on 0x045e) — Step-1's open-book 20 USDC intent IS w23, not a stale w22. Dislocation has deepened each wake; 56 USDC committed across 3 slices, ~24.2 USDC remaining — nearly budget-deployed. All

w23 confirmed: sNVDA dislocation deepened to −2.18% (from −1.75% / −1.92% prior wakes), triggering a 3rd DCA slice (20 USDC → 0.0994 sNVDA at $201.14). 0x448 resolved before w23 fired. With ~24.2 USDC left after 56 USDC deployed, the agent is near budget exhaustion — if 0x045e fills (~20 USDC), only ~4 USDC remains, insufficient for a full next slice.

Not a failure — agent is executing correctly. Structural note: 5/5 settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; zero diversification of counterparty. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote, no fallback taker exists. Current intent 0x045e (20 USDC) is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor — fillable now.

Sound and on-mission. The escalating commitment pattern (18→18→20 USDC as dislocation deepened −1.75%→−1.92%→−2.18%) is disciplined DCA, not churn. The 5 idle wakes (w15–w20) correctly held fire: sNVDA sell-strength blocked by market hours and zero position, no buy-dip above 1.5% threshold — patience was right, not a failure. Sizing at 18–20% of pool per slice is proportionate.

ownIntentResolved: fires when 0x045e fills or expires

2h fallback (120 min, ~74 min remaining)

All 5 settled deals; 11 open quotes; 20 USDC intent is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor

Could theoretically take sNVDA → USDC side, but lot-size bug (4 USDC intents) means it's currently misfiring; not a reliable fill source

None. w15–w20 non-trades were correct: sNVDA sell-strength required holding sNVDA (zero position), and no buy-dip exceeded 1.5% threshold. w21 correctly identified the first actionable signal.

Fires on ownIntentResolved — exact event the agent needs (fill or expiry before re-evaluating)

2h fallback appropriate for a patient DCA agent averaging 153-min gaps

Zero-LLM; intent address hardcoded cleanly; PID written at startup

No early-wake on significant price move — if sNVDA dislocation reverses sharply (e.g. +1% bounce), agent holds the 0x045e intent until expiry rather than cancel

Add a price-check in the watch loop: if dislocation shrinks below 0.5% (dip fading), fireWake early so the agent can re-evaluate whether to let 0x045e expire rather than fill into a recovering asset.

Near budget exhaustion — no slice logic for <full-size remainder

After 56 USDC deployed (18+18+20), ~24.2 USDC remains. If 0x045e fills, ~4.2 USDC left — below the 18-20 USDC slice floor. Agent may stall at next wake with no actionable path despite continued dislocation.

Add minimum-remainder check: if remaining USDC < 10, skip further DCA slices and log 'budget nearly exhausted'; or allow a partial final slice down to 10 USDC floor.

Single counterparty concentration

5/5 settled deals vs LP-Maker-Matheus only. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote (as noted in Step-1: LP missing ETH ask and BTC ask at times), 0x045e would expire unfilled with no alternative taker.

Low priority given LP's current health (93 deals, 11 quotes), but worth noting for resilience — no agent fix needed now, monitor LP sNVDA quote coverage.

Vulture-Andrew

Summary: Confirmed crashed since w67/14:36 UTC June 10; now 675 min dark (+57 min since prior summary at 618 min) — no operator restart has occurred. armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null unchanged; deal counter frozen at 38 (zero new settlements post-crash); all bait intents (987 sAAPL sell 0.99%, 988 sAAPL buy 1.01%, and remainder of the suite) are expire

675 min dark, no restart, all intents expired. LP-Maker's 9 live intents are tight LP quotes (sub-1% spread by mission), so vulture's scan-edges would not fire on them — no edge missed by being down. The agent needs a manual operator restart to re-enter the book.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null since w67/14:36 June 10; settled_deals frozen at 38; tokens_5h_usd=0; no auto-restart in SDK or agent config

Last 7 wakes (w61–w67) show disciplined quote hygiene — cancelling eroded/stale intents, re-posting at oracle mid, honouring the 1% gate, duplicate detection. Reasoning was sound and on-mission up to crash. The problem is a dead process, not bad reasoning.

new takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges.ts, 30s poll)

~5 min pre-expiry on soonest live intent

quote erosion below cancel floor OR undercut (check-my-quotes.ts)

MISSING: no process supervisor / auto-restart — when process dies, nothing revives it

38 of 38 historical deals; LP posts 9 intents across 6 pairs right now, but all are tight LP quotes (~0.2–0.5% spread by mission) — below vu

DCA rebalancer posts delivered swaps — occasional oracle lag could open a 1%+ edge vulture could take

Posts dislocation swaps; dislocation-priced intents could occasionally clear 1% gate

Concentration swaps could slip vs oracle on thin pairs

LP-Maker-Matheus's 9 open intents (sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL) are tight LP quotes posted near oracle mid — sub-1% edge by design, so vulture's scan-edges would not flag them as takeable. No confirmed ≥1% edges in the live book attributable to LP this cycle. No missed opportunities identified.

30s token-free poll loop — high cadence without LLM burn

Pre-seeds honeypot IDs (779, 836, 869) so watcher never fires on confirmed traps

Three independent fire conditions (edge ≥1%, pre-expiry, quote erosion) cover the full mission surface

2h hard fallback prevents indefinite silence

No process supervisor or restart hook — when the Node process dies (as now), the watcher is permanently dark until manual operator action

seenEdgeIds Set is in-memory only — resets on every restart, so a restart after a long gap will re-evaluate previously-refused (but not pre-seeded) intents

Add a systemd/pm2 restart policy (or SDK-level process supervisor) so the watcher auto-restarts on crash — this is the single highest-leverage fix; without it every crash requires manual operator intervention.

No auto-restart on process death

vulture-andrew has been dark 675 min because nothing restarts the watcher process when it dies. The wake-script itself is well-written but moot if the process is not running.

Add pm2/systemd restart policy to the agent container, or wire a SDK-level process-health check that re-arms the watcher if pidAlive=false persists beyond N minutes.

Bait suite fully expired, zero book presence

All intents from w67 (987 sAAPL sell, 988 sAAPL buy, and remainder) have expired. open_intents=0. When the agent restarts it must re-post the full bait suite from scratch.

Operator restart only — wake-script will re-post on first live wake.

Fleet-wide: no process-health auto-recovery in SDK

Three agents (vulture-andrew, bear-yosher, stacker-massimo) show the same pattern: armed=false/pidAlive=false with no recovery. This is a shared SDK/infrastructure gap.

Add a watchdog layer in the SDK or orchestrator that detects pidAlive=false and triggers an agent restart, scoped per-agent by config flag.

675 min dark, no restart, all intents expired. LP-Maker's 9 live intents are tight LP quotes (sub-1% spread by mission), so vulture's scan-edges would not fire on them — no edge missed by being down. The agent needs a manual operator restart to re-enter the book.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

Hub Live; Binary, Vulture, Bear Dark

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Arb-Hunter-Tom, Rebalancer-Lior, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, 0xBd6a…9863}

ACTIVE — 102 LP deals; 4 of 6 open-book intents are LP-Maker-Matheus; taker-side

Bear-Yosher → Mimic-Ljuba (historical; 17 settled, all pre-crash)

FROZEN — Bear-Yosher crashed 874 min; Mimic armed w/ 57-min fallback but 0 suppl

PAUSED — Writer vol-gated (Engine 1 suspended w38, 23+ monitor-only wakes); Take

Vulture-Andrew → open market (no takers recorded)

DARK — Crashed 675 min; bait intents #987/#988 expired; deal counter frozen at 3

Index-Maker ⇄ Index-Taker (designed, never launched)

ABSENT — 0 IndexBasket intents in 1334 funnel entries; both agents uninitialized

Bear-Yosher hard crash at w40/w41 (~14.5h ago); watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false for 874 min

BinaryBet surface entirely eliminated: Mimic-Ljuba has 0 live counterparties; Arb-Hunter-Tom's binary-bet path is struct

Mimic wakes w57–w68 all return empty binary board; Arb-Hunter-Tom counter frozen at 11 across 20+ consecutive waits; 3 Bear↔Mimic 'live' deals oracle-settled without Bear's participation

Vulture-Andrew crash at w67/14:36 UTC Jun 10; 675 min dark

LP-Maker-Matheus loses its highest-frequency taker (38 pre-crash deals); bait-triggered sAAPL price-discovery absent; re

tokens_5h_usd=0; settled_deals frozen at 38; bait intents #987 and #988 expired; watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null

LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole swap liquidity hub across 6 asset pairs

Every active DCA/momentum agent (Swing-Nikita 5/5, Stacker-Massimo 2/2, Momentum-Nikita 3/5 deals) traces exclusively to

reliableCounterparties=1 for Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Rebalancer-Lior, Arb-Hunter-Tom; 4 of 6 open-book intents are LP-Maker-Matheus quotes

Option-Writer-Matheus vol-gate: Engine 1 paused since w38 (23+ monitor-only wakes); no vol spike ≥1%, no ranking rotatio

Option-Taker-Matheus supply-starved — polls every 60s (nextFallbackMin=890) into an empty book; 201 min since last wake

Option-Taker settled_deals=4, all ↔ 0x57F8…B0ff (option-writer); writer drawdown −4.11% within 'secure' band; w61 explicitly confirms all three Engine 1 resume conditions false

Index-Maker and Index-Taker never initialized across 18 consecutive cycles

Zero IndexBasket intents in 1334 total funnel entries; entire product surface absent — not quiet, structurally nonexiste

Both agents: wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false — every initialization signal null or zero

Bear-Yosher crashed 874 min — BinaryBet surface dead, Deal 75 settlement missed

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false since w40/w41. Deal 75 betExpiry 1781139624 (00:58 UTC Jun 11) expired without DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS trigger firing — settlement window missed permanently. Mimic-Ljuba is armed (nextFallbackMin=57) but has 0 binary counterparties; Arb-Hunter-Tom's binary path is dark across 20+ wakes.

874 min dark; Mimic wakes w57–w68 all return empty binary board; Arb-Hunter-Tom counter frozen at 11; bear summary: 'all 17 historical deals ↔ Mimic-Ljuba'

Manual operator restart of bear-yosher. Investigate crash root cause at PID 6802 (last known, w40) before restart to prevent immediate recurrence.

Vulture-Andrew crashed 675 min — bait suite expired, sAAPL surface dark

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false since w67/14:36 UTC Jun 10. All bait intents (#987 sAAPL sell 0.99%, #988 sAAPL buy 1.01%) expired with no fills. Deal counter frozen at 38; tokens_5h_usd=0. sAAPL price-discovery mechanism fully absent.

675 min dark; settled_deals unchanged at 38; bait intents expired; no auto-restart in SDK or agent config

Manual operator restart of vulture-andrew. Re-post bait suite on restart.

Stacker-Massimo watcher stopped — pre-open epoch trigger at 13:30 UTC may be missed

Step-2 summary text says 'Still armed (pidAlive=true)' and references nextFallbackMin=129, but watcher JSON reports armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — a contradiction. Orient flags stacker-massimo as 722 min dark in the crash list. If the watcher is genuinely stopped, the epoch trigger 1781098200 will fire into a dead process.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; orient: 'stacker-massimo 722 min' in crash focus area

Verify stacker-massimo watcher process liveness before 13:30 UTC Jun 11. If pidAlive=false confirmed, restart immediately to ensure DCA sequence executes at market open.

LP-Maker-Matheus single-hub concentration — 1 failure freezes 80%+ of swap flow

102 of ~110 estimated Swap settlements route through LP-Maker-Matheus. Swing-Nikita (5/5), Stacker-Massimo (2/2), Rebalancer-Lior, Arb-Hunter-Tom each have reliableCounterparties=1. LP watcher shows armed=false in current snapshot — confirm this is a between-wakes gap, not a new crash.

Open book: 4 of 6 live intents are LP-Maker-Matheus; reliableCounterparties=1 for majority of taker agents

Add a second swap maker (or configure index-maker to cross with swap book on initialization). Monitor LP watcher state — if armed=false persists beyond 30 min, treat as crash.

Arb-Hunter-Tom SSV direction-check blocked +100bps gap — may be miscalibrated

w193 logged 'SSV +100bps gap dir ->' with truncated rejection. A 100bps gap exceeds typical arb thresholds; if the direction filter compares against the wrong oracle side (buy vs sell), the agent is systematically leaving viable arb on the table. Counter frozen at 11 for 20+ consecutive wakes.

w193 log: 'SSV +100bps gap dir ->'; counter at 11 (unchanged from prior summary across w186–w193)

Read arb-hunter-tom current.ts direction-check logic. If filter compares oracle direction against agent's buy/sell side in reversed order, swap the comparison. If logic is correct, the gap was one-sided and unprofitable — no fix needed.

Index-Maker + Index-Taker uninitialized — 0 IndexBasket intents in 1334 funnel entries for 18 cycles

Zero wakes, zero lifetime tokens, null wake scripts for both agents. The IndexBasket product surface is entirely absent — not inactive, never launched. 18 consecutive null cycles with no operator action detected.

wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wake_script_source=null for both; 0 IndexBasket in total funnel

Provision wallets and initialize both agents if IndexBasket is intended to be live. If intentionally deferred, document deferral to suppress false-alarm cycling in observer.

Restart bear-yosher and vulture-andrew immediately — highest-leverage fleet improvement. Restores BinaryBet surface (unlocks Mimic-Ljuba supply and Arb-Hunter-Tom binary path) and sAAPL bait suite (restores price-discovery). Both have been dark 675–874 min with no auto-recovery.

Verify stacker-massimo watcher liveness before 13:30 UTC Jun 11. If pidAlive=false confirmed, restart now to ensure pre-open epoch trigger fires into a live process.

Implement SDK-level watchdog: auto-restart dead watchers (pidAlive=false AND armed=false) after configurable N minutes. Three crashes in this cycle (bear-yosher 874 min, vulture-andrew 675 min, stacker-massimo 722 min) have all required manual operator intervention — a platform-l

Audit arb-hunter-tom's SSV direction-check in current.ts — +100bps gap at w193 was rejected; confirm direction filter is comparing oracle side correctly for the agent's buy/sell position.

Initialize index-maker and index-taker if IndexBasket is a live product. 18 null cycles with 0 IndexBasket intents in 1334 posted represents either an undeployed feature or a forgotten provisioning step.

Same 3 crashes as last run (bear-yosher 872 min, vulture-andrew 673 min, stacker-massimo 722 min — all unchanged); LP-Maker-Matheus accelerated to 102 deals (+6 vs 96 at prior summary) and arb-hunter-tom shows 4× recent Swap settlements vs LP-Maker-Matheus in the recent-deals feed, suggesting the 20

3 persistent crashes: bear-yosher (872 min), vulture-andrew (673 min), stacker-massimo (722 min) — BinaryBet surface dead, vulture bait suite expired, stacker pre-open epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC Jun

LP-Maker-Matheus +6 deals this cycle (96→102); 9 open intents across 6 asset pairs (sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL) — book breadth and inventory burn rate need check

Arb-Hunter-Tom: 4× 'Arb-Hunter-Tom ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus [Swap] settled' in recent-deals feed vs counter frozen at 11 in prior summary — determine if deal count actually moved

sNVDA options #118 (call, 17:37 UTC Jun 11) and #119 (put, 18:31 UTC Jun 11) expire today — settlement outcome imminent for both option-writer-matheus and option-taker-matheus

Swing-Nikita near budget-deployed: ~24.2 USDC remaining after 3 DCA slices (56 USDC committed); w23 intent (20 USDC, 0x045e) may have filled

Momentum-Nikita open intent #1318 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV) had 15 min left at data snapshot — filled or expired

Did the deal counter break above 11? Four 'LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom [Swap] settled' entries appear in recent deals — are these new fills this cycle or pre-existing history, and did the SSV +100bps direction-check rejection logged m

Deal 75 expiry epoch 1781139624 (~00:58 UTC Jun 11) has passed — has it settled, and what is the status of the 3 Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba live deals (2× BinaryBet, 1× custom) given the agent is 872 min crashed and cannot act on settlement?

Has any operator action initialized this agent since the 17th consecutive null cycle? Check for any wallet provisioning, new watcher state, or wake activity — this is the only unblock that matters.

Has any operator action initialized this agent? Index-maker's complete absence remains the structural blocker — has either agent seen any operator action that would unblock both simultaneously?

Deals jumped 96→102 (+6 this cycle) with 9 open intents across 6 asset pairs — is the accelerated volume driven by arb-hunter-tom's revival, and is inventory healthy enough to sustain the current book depth without gaps emerging?

Bear-Yosher has been dark 872 min and is Mimic's sole BinaryBet source — are the 3 live Bear↔Mimic deals (2× BinaryBet, 1× custom) resolving via oracle without agent action, and what is Mimic doing now that no new binary flow exists?

Intent #1318 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, 15 min left at snapshot) — did it fill or expire? Has the SSV momentum signal from w22 sustained into the current wake, and what is the current portfolio composition vs the w22 baseline ($75.15 USDC + $7.4

sNVDA call #118 expires 17:37 UTC Jun 11 and put #119 expires 18:31 UTC — are these ITM or OTM at current oracle price, and is the watcher (nextFallbackMin=904) positioned to capture settlement or does it wake too late?

Engine 1 has been paused 19+ consecutive monitor-only wakes (w42–w60+) — has the ETH/BTC drawdown recovered above the 1% re-entry threshold, and has any new option intent been posted since w38?

Holding 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 entry (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75) with 710 min of silence — does the continued silence confirm the position is within bounds, and when does the Jun 12 ~20:00 UTC horizon trigger the next mandatory wake?

nextFallbackMin was 731 at prior summary (~14:00 UTC Jun 11 stock-open fallback) — has the trigger fired this cycle, and if so what DCA slice did the agent post or execute?

Crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false) 722 min ago — prior summary had it armed for epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC Jun 11 stock open). Has the 13:30 UTC window passed while the agent was dark, meaning it missed its buy trigger entirely?

w23 intent (20 USDC → sNVDA, 0x045e) was the last open slice with dislocation at −2.18% — did it fill? With ~24.2 USDC remaining and nextFallbackMin=706, is the agent approaching full deployment or still in active posting mode?

673 min crashed, bait suite fully expired — has any operator restart action occurred, and do LP-Maker-Matheus's 9 current open intents (sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL) contain edges vulture would have scanned and taken?

Restart bear-yosher immediately — deal 75 expiry epoch 1781139624 has passed, the BinaryBet surface has been dead 872 min, and Mimic-Ljuba's binary arm is starved with no upstream supply.

Restart vulture-andrew — 673 min dark, bait suite expired, and LP-Maker-Matheus has 9 live open intents across 6 pairs that may contain fresh mispricing edges vulture would normally scan.

Restart stacker-massimo — crashed at 722 min and likely missed the 13:30 UTC Jun 11 stock-open epoch trigger; needs assessment of whether the window has passed and whether to DCA at current price.

Prioritize bear-yosher restart above all others — it is the sole BinaryBet poster; its absence starves mimic-ljuba and arb-hunter-tom's binary arm simultaneously, collapsing an entire market segment.

Flag sNVDA option expirations #118 (17:37 UTC) and #119 (18:31 UTC Jun 11) as time-sensitive — both option-writer-matheus and option-taker-matheus must be awake and responsive at settlement.