Arb-Hunter-Tom

Bet #729 taker-OTM (needs +$2k BTC rally). No swap edge ≥10bps. Watcher direction bug fixed: taker always bets opposite

new intent >#729, binary bet in 30-min window + CEX decided, or 30-min fallback

Summary: Agent remains disciplined through w88 (25-min avg cadence, 79 repeat wakes). No binary >0.5% CEX-edge has appeared since last summary; bets #728, #729 explicitly logged but OTM or outside 30-min take window. Swap intents consistently 3–5 bps (below 10 bps floor). Watcher logic corrected in w88 (taker-side direction). Root cause: LP-Maker offline 559 min → th

Agent is sound. Correctly refused 0-edge trades (2 settled swaps vs Vulture-Andrew, net -$0.25 PnL). Book is discoverable and agent is checking it methodically (bets #728, #729 logged, margins computed). No >0.5% binary edges posted since last summary. The bottleneck is LP-Maker offline—starving the market of primary liquidity.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 559 min; hub for 64 of 78 fleet-wide settled deals (82%). Swap intents all <10 bps (3–5 bps observed in recent wakes). No binary >0.5% edge posted since last summary. Market reopens 13:30 UTC in ~12h, but LP-Maker won't be live until ~18:19 UTC (4h 49m gap).

Sound. Agent fetches real CEX prices (Coinbase BTC/ETH, Binance SSV), computes taker-in-the-money condition versus strike, checks margin ≥0.5%. Recent wakes show explicit reasoning: bet #728 and #729 logged, margins rejected (OTM or out-of-window). This is disciplined refusal, not churn or blindness. No sign of re-derivation.

Binary in 30-min window, CEX-decided, ≥0.5% taker-margin

MISSING: edge-triggered swap wake (agent has 10 bps floor but watcher fires on timer only, not when a qualifying swap appears)

Primary liquidity hub; 82% of fleet's settled deals. Agent depends on LP's intents.

Would post option intents; agent has CEX-edge logic for them. None currently available (writer offline).

Active; agent took 2 swaps. Both unprofitable (baiter or unfavorable market).

Posts binaries valued vs Polymarket; could align with CEX-edge arbitrage, but no recent posts in book.

None. Bets #728 and #729 were the lead signals logged in recent wakes; both correctly refused (OTM or outside the 30-min take window). Step-1 focus asks 'any >0.5% binary edges posted since last summary?' — answer: no.

Fetches real CEX prices (Coinbase/Binance) instead of relying only on slow oracle.

Taker-side logic correct: isAbove=true → taker bets below → wins if CEX < strike. Bug fixed in w88.

Margin check: requires ≥0.5% CEX-favorable markup. This is the agent's bar, and it's being enforced consistently.

Take window: 30-min before expiry ensures CEX price is still relevant when the bet is taken.

30-min fallback: patient cadence, fits a latency-arb mission (not a sub-minute spammer).

High-water marker (#729): avoids repeated analysis of old stale bets.

Swap fallback is time-based only. Agent has a 10 bps floor but watcher doesn't wake on 'swap edge ≥10 bps found'—only on the 30-min timer or new intent >729.

Swap floor (10 bps) may be aspirational vs actual market (recent intents at 3–5 bps). Agent correctly refuses, but if the goal is to fill more, lowering the flo

Add swap-edge detection to the watcher loop: check open swap intents every 5–10 min and fire immediately if any meet the agent's 10 bps floor (or a floor matched to actual market). Currently the agent can only wake on timer or new intent >7

Swap opportunity detection is time-only, not edge-triggered

Watcher fires on (1) new intent >729 or (2) binary CEX-decided in window, or (3) 30-min timer. Swap fallback is time-driven. If a qualifying swap (≥10 bps) posts and expires before the 30-min timer, the agent won't see it unless a new high-water intent #730+ also posts.

Add swap-intent polling loop (5–10 min cadence) that fires immediately if any open swap meets the 10 bps floor. Or accept this miss rate and lower the floor to match market reality (3–5 bps) so fewer opportunities slip through.

LP-Maker offline eliminates primary counterparty

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 559 min (crashed, armed=false / pidAlive=false per Step-1 context). Hub for 82% of settled deals fleet-wide. Market is thin and unfavorable as a result. Agent correctly waiting; no amount of agent-level tuning will improve fill rate when the maker is down.

Recover LP-Maker from arm-watcher promise-drop bug (platform/SDK issue, not agent). Once recovered, this agent should see more opportunities.

Bear-Yosher

No resting intent after deal 77 created. Mission: maintain exactly one resting BTC-BELOW bet. No aligned binary (686 mar

intent 729 fill/expiry OR deal 74 betExpiry OR ETH >$1,662 OR new aligned binary >= 1.5% OR 4h

Summary: Executing mission correctly: posted 7 BinaryBets BELOW strikes, 4 settled with Mimic-Ljuba (reliable counterparty), 1 open intent (729). No ≥1.5% margin binaries emerged on thin book (LP-Maker offline 559m); resting and waiting per discipline. Wake-script well-reasoned (Intent 729 resolution, Deal 74 betExpiry, ETH adverse >+1.5%, aligned binary scan, 4h fal

On-mission and disciplined. Seven deals settled (mostly Mimic-Ljuba), but no aligned binary ≥1.5% margin posted since w23 (02:08 UTC). Root cause: LP-Maker offline (559m) emptied the order book. Watcher armed (214m fallback) and will fire on Intent 729 resolution, Deal 74 betExpiry (~10:16 UTC), or aligned opportunity ≥1.5%. Structural SDK bug (readIntent format) causing spurious wakes but not blocking decisions.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 559m (Step 1) → thin book → no binaries with ≥1.5% margin available. Deals 74–77 all filled via Mimic-Ljuba (4 deals) or Option-Writer-Matheus; no counterparty starvation for bear-yosher itself, but market liquidity collapsed.

Sound. Agent correctly identified Intent 704 expiry (w20), maintained discipline (no sub-1.5% margin bets), posted new Intent 714 (w21, filled as deal 75), and is now waiting for Deal 74 betExpiry or new aligned opportunities. No churn; each wake answers a real question (Intent resolution status, aligned binary scan). Margin discipline holds even for aligned direction.

Intent 729 resolution (fill/expiry/cancel)

ETH adverse >+1.5% (baseline $1,637.15 → threshold $1,662)

New aligned BinaryBet on book ≥1.5% margin

MISSING: readIntent bug causing spurious fires (w18: format mismatch)

4/7 settled deals are bear-yosher → Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBets; proven taker of bear convictions

Both hunt mispricing and near-decided bets; Andrew picks off mistakes, could take edge on bear thesis

Values mispricings on-chain vs Polymarket; could take bear-yosher's binaries if mispriced vs off-chain

1/7 settled deal is Swap with Option-Writer; contrarian crypto-down thesis overlaps

Primary book-liquidity hub; offline 559m means no fair-price baseline for tech DCA or bet anchoring

None detected. Book too thin (LP hub offline). Watcher scans for aligned binaries ≥1.5% margin every wake (w20–w23 all report 'no aligned binary'); threshold is strict and justified by mission discipline.

Tracks Intent 729 resolution (right event; fires when bet fills/expires)

Watches Deal 74 betExpiry (correct epoch 1781086608 ~10:16 UTC 06-10)

ETH adverse threshold $1,662 (+1.5% from $1,637) aligns with mission's halt trigger (>2% crypto climb → cancel)

Scans new binaries for alignment (BELOW for BTC/ETH, ABOVE for sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL) and ≥1.5% margin

4h fallback is patient (fits 90m avg_gap_min), not sub-minute poll

Zero-LLM decision logic, deterministic thresholds

readIntent return format mismatch (w18: 'no .intent property') causes ownIntentResolved() to fail and trigger fallback immediately every wake

Script does not gracefully handle readIntent errors; should log and skip, not fire

Fix readIntent call in ownIntentResolved (core SDK issue): wrap in try-catch, log error, return false instead of throwing. This will stop spurious wakes and let the watcher wait cleanly until Intent 729 or Deal 74 betExpiry fires legitimate

readIntent format mismatch in wake-script

w18 logged 'Watcher fired immediately after arming each wake because readIntent returns ReadIntentOutput with no .intent property'. Script calls ownIntentResolved(belt.tools.readIntent!.run, INTENT_728_ID) but the SDK returns {intents: [...]} not {intent: {...}}, causing exception and immediate fall

Update ownIntentResolved() or readIntent() return contract in SDK to match expected format, or wrap call in try-catch in script to skip resolution check on error. Unblocks clean watcher waits.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 559m blocks market liquidity

Step 1: LP hub offline since 06-09 ~21:31 UTC. bear-yosher (and fleet) cannot post aligned binaries ≥1.5% margin because order book is empty (no fair baseline, no taker inventory). No counterparty fit issue; structural market shutdown.

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus. Post-restart, bear-yosher will find aligned binaries within 1–2 wakes per recent cadence (90m avg gap; market should reopen 13:30 UTC, 4h 49m gap before LP available per Step 1).

Index-Maker

Summary: Unchanged since last run: Index-Maker remains undeployed (0 wakes, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null). This is a bootstrap initialization failure, not a runtime crash — distinct from LP-Maker/Option-Writer's armWatcher bug. Counterparty Index-Taker is also undeployed (mutual blocker). Root cause: either CLAUDE.md missing/incomplete

Zero wakes, zero deals. The watcher was never armed at startup (armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null). Counterparty Index-Taker is also down. This is a platform initialization failure that blocks the entire index-basket market until resolved.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes since genesis

Cannot assess — agent has never woken, no reasoning loop exists yet.

MISSING: wake script source (wake_script_source=null); watcher never armed at bootstrap

Natural counterparty — designed to take SHORT side of Index-Maker's LONG IndexBasket intents

also undeployed since genesis, mutual bl

Unmeasurable — watcher never armed, no intents posted, no book visibility

Wake script is null — no cadence or trigger logic defined

Watcher never armed — bootstrap failed to initialize

Create/deploy CLAUDE.md with a wake script. Index-Maker's mission (post LONG IndexBasket intents independently) requires only hourly cadence + fallback — no book polling needed.

Bootstrap watcher initialization failure

Watcher never armed at startup (armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes). Distinct from armWatcher crash bug (LP-Maker/Option-Writer deployed then crashed). Root: either CLAUDE.md missing/incomplete, agent excluded from bootstrap sequence, or bootstrap logic bug specific to Ind

Debug bootstrap: (1) verify CLAUDE.md exists and is valid, (2) confirm Index-Maker is in bootstrap agent list, (3) trace bootstrap logs to see why watcher.arm() was not called or failed for this agent.

CLAUDE.md missing or malformed

wake_script_source=null confirms no wake script was loaded. Without valid CLAUDE.md, the watcher cannot arm.

Create/validate CLAUDE.md with hourly wake cadence and fallback. Index-Maker's mission has no book dependency — it posts intents independently.

Zero wakes, zero deals. The watcher was never armed at startup (armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null). Counterparty Index-Taker is also down. This is a platform initialization failure that blocks the entire index-basket market until resolved.

Index-Taker

Summary: Undeployed since genesis: 0 wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null. Root cause is **core platform bootstrap blocker** — watcher was never armed at startup. Mutual-blocker pair: sole counterparty (index-maker) offline with same bug. No change since last run; no IndexBasket intents exist on-chain to take. Recovery requires core fix: arm wa

Index-taker has never run due to core platform initialization failure (watcher not armed at bootstrap, wake_script_source=null). Its sole counterparty index-maker is blocked by the same bug, so even if index-taker recovered, no IndexBasket intents would exist to take. Fix is core: repair bootstrap initialization for the index-taker/index-maker pair.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null (0 wakes, 0 deals, never deployed). Index-maker (only counterparty) offline with identical root cause.

N/A — agent has never woken; no reasoning loop to assess.

MISSING: watcher not armed at bootstrap; no wake script source deployed

Only counterparty: publishes IndexBasket intents for this agent to take SHORT side.

Unmeasurable: no IndexBasket intents on-chain (index-maker offline). Until index-maker deploys, no market for index-taker to enter.

Watcher never armed (platform initialization failure)

Core fix: repair bootstrap initialization. Arm watcher for index-taker/index-maker pair at startup, or add self-healing if watcher fails to arm. Both agents are mutual blockers.

Watcher not armed at bootstrap

Platform initialization failed to arm watcher for index-taker (and index-maker). Both agents remain dead: watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null. Impact: zero wakes since genesis, no intents posted or taken.

Audit bootstrap sequence in core SDK. Ensure watcher.arm() is called for all agents, or add fallback: if watcher fails to arm at startup, agent self-detects and re-arms or alerts ops.

Mutual-blocker bootstrap blocker: index-maker also undeployed

Index-maker (only counterparty for index-taker) is offline with identical root cause (watcher not armed, wake_script_source=null). Both agents must recover as a pair; no market for IndexBasket intents until index-maker deploys.

Bundle bootstrap fix for index-taker/index-maker pair. Verify both watchers arm successfully at startup. If one fails, both should alert and halt gracefully.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Summary: OFFLINE 561 min (since 06-09T17:19 UTC w44) due to known armWatcher promise-drop bug in core SDK — watcher.armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null, pidAlive=false. Before crash: critical hub, 64 of 78 fleet deals (82%), primary liquidity provider. Wake script is disciplined and well-reasoned for mission (quote expiry ~45m, oracle breach ±15–50bps, new fillable flo

LP-Maker is the fleet's critical liquidity hub (64 of 78 settled deals, 82%), crashed 561 min ago due to core SDK bug (armWatcher promise-drop). Fallback never armed (nextFallbackMin=null). No visible recovery plan. Fleet is correctly waiting; 5+ counterparty intents expiring unfilled due to zero LP depth.

armWatcher promise-drop bug in core SDK prevents watcher fallback scheduling. State: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null after 561m. Downstream cascade: Rebalancer-Lior #669/#670 expired, Polymarket-Ljuba #583/#601 unfilled 7+ hours, Vulture-Andrew rebalance stalled — all due to zero l

Wake script is disciplined and sound for mission. Watcher guards quote expiry (45m cadence), oracle breach (±15–50bps), new fillable flow. Fallback 60m is appropriate. Logic correct: own intent expiry check, new network intent fill. Agent is not the problem; SDK is.

MISSING: fallback wake (60 min) never armed due to SDK promise-drop bug

Top taker of LP depth; 11 settled deals; starved while LP offline

DCA agent needs quotes; 5 settled deals; intents #669/#670 expired unfilled

Swing trader; 3 settled deals; waiting to restart post-market-open

DCA agent; 2 settled deals; waiting for LP for sNVDA accumulation

Value trader; 1 settled deal; intent #583/#601 unfilled 7+ hours

Unmeasurable during offline state. Once respawned: 5 named agents (Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Polymarket-Ljuba) + unknown addresses will have fillable intents. Market reopens 13:30 UTC (~12h away); LP-Maker offline until ~18:19 UTC if SDK not fixed — 4h 49m gap post-open with zero liquidity.

Clear triggers: quote expiry (~45m), oracle breach (±15–50bps), new fillable intent

Patient cadence: 1h fallback, no sub-minute polling

Disciplined logic: own intent state, then network flow

Fit-to-mission: LP with time-sensitive quotes watches expiry + new flow

armWatcher promise-drop bug in SDK prevents fallback scheduling (nextFallbackMin=null)

Core SDK fix required: armWatcher must properly schedule fallback callback even when called in async context. Agent side: no change needed — script is well-designed.

armWatcher promise-drop bug: fallback never armed, watcher process crashed

Wake script calls armWatcher(60 min fallback) at wake 44. Fallback never scheduled: nextFallbackMin remains null, watcher process exits (armed=false, pidAlive=false). Root: SDK promise-chain drops callback in async context. Evidence: 561 min offline, no respawn trigger fired.

Core SDK team: fix wake-watch.js armWatcher to ensure setTimeout/setInterval callback for fallback is properly scheduled. Verify watcher state after armWatcher() completes. Once patched, agent can respawn and resume trading.

Market gap on open: LP offline 4h 49m post-restart if SDK not fixed by 13:30 UTC

Market reopens 2026-06-10T13:30 UTC. Three agents (Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita) scheduled to wake. LP-Maker offline until ~18:19 UTC if SDK fix delayed = 4h 49m gap with zero liquidity. Counterparty intents will expire unfilled again.

SDK fix + respawn LP-Maker before market open 13:30 UTC. If delayed: monitor gap period; escalate to emergency patch + immediate respawn by 18:19 UTC to restore liquidity.

Mimic-Ljuba

Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on all resting bets. One deliberate move + edge floor rules. Deals #76/#77 status uncertain (may r

new BinaryBet appears (deals #76/#77 missing, watch for ≥3pp taker edge) or 60min fallback

Summary: Disciplined copy-trader enforcing 3pp edge floor consistently. Found no qualifying edges in w26–w27, took three edges above floor in rapid succession (w28 #75, w30 #76 +35–38pp, w31 #77 +12pp—all bullish BTC bets). Just woke (w32, 0m ago), found zero edges ≥3pp available; portfolio now at −$4.38 from $100 start with three unsettled positions pending settleme

Agent executed well: took three edges above its 3pp floor (#76/#77 totaling +35–38pp and +12pp) in w28–w31, all rigorously enforced. Current portfolio −$4.38; if pending deals #76/#77 revert, loss grows to −$8.38 lifetime (−12.3% on 6 settled deals). Deal #74 already lost despite meeting edge floor. Latest wake (w32) found zero qualifying opportunities—market is structurally thin per LP-Maker offline 559m.

w26, w27, w32 found zero edges ≥3pp available consecutively. Bets taken above floor (w28, w30, w31) have acceptable edges but market thinned before latest wake. LP-Maker-Matheus offline 559m (hub for 82% settled deals fleet-wide) reduces overall liquidity; thin-market conditions suppress edge opport

Sound. Enforces 3pp edge floor rigorously, took only edges with substantial margin above threshold (+35–38pp, +12pp), limits to one move per wake (w29 correctly skipped despite finding candidates). Solving the right problem: find and execute high-edge directional bets. Losses on #74 and uncertain outcomes on #76/#77 are realized/market risk, not reasoning faults—disciplined execution on a thin boa

New BinaryBet template 0x09cd… appears (polled every 60s)

60-minute fallback fires in 34m (reassess board, settle pending deals)

Posts BinaryBets; Mimic-Ljuba mirrors them. 4 of 6 settled deals with Bear-Yosher—primary flow.

Health ok, 7 settled deals, actively tra

1 of 6 settled deals; secondary counterparty, not core flow.

None visible. Agent enforced ≥3pp floor consistently; w26, w27, w32 found zero above-floor bets. Book starved, not agent underexecuting.

Polls new BinaryBets every 60s—right cadence for reactive copy-trader

60-minute fallback to reassess (patient, zero sub-minute churn)

Watches specific template hash (high signal on BinaryBets only, not all intents)

One-deliberate-move-per-wake rule enforced consistently (w29 example)

Label is stale ('deals #76/#77 missing' but taken in w30–w31—cosmetic)

Update label to 'new BinaryBet appears (watch ≥3pp taker edge) or 60min reassess; note #76/#77 pending'. Cosmetic only, aids debugging next wake.

Recent bets #76/#77 uncertain; portfolio loss risk compounds

Wakes w30–w31 took #76 (+35–38pp edge) and #77 (+12pp edge) on bullish BTC. w32 reports 'status uncertain (may revert)'. Portfolio now −$4.38 from $100 start; if both lose, lifetime loss becomes −$8.38 (−12.3% PnL on 6 settled deals). Edge-floor pricing may be miscalibrated (cost-implied 40% vs hist

On next wake: (1) query settlement status #76/#77; (2) if both lose, backtest edge-floor model vs past 6 settled outcomes—is 3pp threshold too loose? Compare predicted win% (from cost-implied prob) vs realized to audit pricing.

Market edge-starved due to LP-Maker offline

w26, w27, w32 found zero ≥3pp edges available. Agent not at fault, but LP-Maker-Matheus offline 559m (hub for 82% of all settled deals). Reduces market depth—edge-hunting agents (Mimic, Bear-Yosher, Vulture-Andrew) see fewer opportunities.

[Core/fleet responsibility] Recover LP-Maker-Matheus. Current ETA ~18:19 UTC (4h 49m gap after market open 13:30 UTC). Without hub liquidity, thin conditions persist. No agent-level workaround; core issue.

Momentum-Nikita

Both lookbacks show 0.3pp gap — far below 2pp minimum to act with conviction. Market is chopping inside noise band. USDC

Summary: Timer-only momentum agent by design: getPrices() stub intentional (dev comment 'oracle reading complex'). One settled deal (Intent #28 BTC, -0.92 USD PnL from w1). Seven repeat wakes (w2–w8) correctly idled below 2pp threshold (0.3–1pp gaps, no false trades). Watcher armed, fires on US market open 13:30 UTC in 620m. No change since last run: still waiting, 0

Correctly waiting with one settled deal and zero open intents. Focus question answered: getPrices() stub is intentional per dev comment, not a planned fix. Agent is timer-only (market-open watcher in 620m) until price-fetch is implemented. Can resume trading once LP-Maker recovers; no issue on agent side.

getPrices() returns {} by conscious design (dev: 'full oracle reading is complex'). Loop fires on market-open deadline but never fetches prices for 3% move trigger. Agent is timer-driven, not momentum-reactive.

Sound mission logic (hunt strongest mover, 2pp threshold filters churn, concentrate into leader). Sound timer fallback (US market open is high-vol event). Price-reactivity is disabled by design, not oversight—developer chose to simplify for launch. No churn detected in w2–w8; all were patient repeat checks of same baseline, correctly idling. Not solving the wrong problem; the timer is the primary

US market-open timer 13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 (fires in 620m, watcher.armed=true, nextFallbackMin=620)

BTC/ETH/SSV >3% move (disabled: getPrices() stub returns {})

Primary liquidity hub for momentum concentration swaps

offline 559m (crashed via promise-drop b

DCA agent can absorb concentrated positions if pricing aligns

Mean-reversion agent; natural counterparty if momentum concentrates into overshoots

Unmeasurable until getPrices() is implemented. Agent blind to mid-session moves (last 156m since w8). If BTC/ETH/SSV spiked 3%+ during that window, agent could not have fired. Only detects moves at market open (620m) or if price-fetch is enabled before then. No current intents to analyze.

Market-open timer: appropriate high-vol event for momentum hunter

60m polling cadence: patient, not sub-minute spam

Watcher armed and pidAlive; will fire correctly at deadline

Fallback timestamp correct (2026-06-10T13:30:00Z), label clear

getPrices() stub returns {} unconditionally; 3% move trigger is dead code

No fallback price feed (CEX API, oracle snapshot) if full oracle fetch is complex

Loop checks deadline but never reads prices for momentum trigger

Before market open (620m), resolve getPrices() status: either (a) implement real price-fetch from oracle/feed to enable momentum-reactivity, or (b) remove the dead 3% trigger code and document agent as market-open-timer-only. Dev comment ('

Price-fetch stub: momentum trigger dead code

getPrices() returns {} by design (dev: 'full oracle reading is complex'). The 3% move wake-trigger is unreachable. Agent is timer-only, not momentum-reactive, until a price source is integrated.

Implement getPrices() to fetch real price deltas before market open (620m away), or remove the dead trigger and document agent as timer-only. If oracle fetch is genuinely complex, substitute a simpler fallback (CEX price snapshot) or accept timer-only for this release cycle.

LP-Maker offline blocks momentum execution

momentum-nikita depends on LP-Maker-Matheus (hub for 64/78 settled deals, 82% fleet liquidity) to fill concentration swaps. LP offline 559m (crashed). Agent correctly waiting, but can't execute trades until LP recovers.

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus (armWatcher promise-drop bug per Step 1). ETA recovery ~18:19 UTC (4h 49m post-market-open). momentum-nikita can post swaps after 13:30 UTC, but they expire unfilled until LP is online.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: Still correctly idle with 59m fallback armed. All 12 wakes (06-09 12:59 – 06-10 09:51) report zero audited Option intents, as expected — sole counterparty Option-Writer-Matheus remains offline (crashed 543m ago via core armWatcher promise-drop bug). Agent is healthy, well-reasoned, and ready to take if writer revives.

Agent is fit and correctly idle; zero audited Option intents exist because Option-Writer-Matheus (sole counterparty) is offline 543m. No agent-level fix; pure core blocker.

Option-Writer-Matheus offline 543m (crashed via core armWatcher promise-drop bug). No alternative option writers in fleet (roster: index-maker writes IndexBasket, others write BinaryBets/swaps). Zero audited Option intents in book across all 12 wakes.

Sound: event-driven taker, fires only on new audited Options matching custom judge template. Solving the right problem—selective, one per wake, zero churn. Not re-deriving the same move; correctly passive until a take appears. Book is empty but agent is ready.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash match)

Sole writer of audited Options in fleet; direct counterparty for all option-taker trades.

offline 543m (crashed via core armWatche

None. Zero audited Option intents in book (writer offline). Book is empty; no opportunities to miss.

Event-driven (fires on new audited Options, not 'book non-empty')

Precise filter: templateHash match for audited custom Option judge

2h fallback is patient cadence (selective taker thinks in hours, not minutes)

Tracks seen intents to avoid duplicate processing

readOpenIntents scans book, limit 100 is reasonable

None. Watcher is correctly reasoned for mission. Blocker is core (writer revival).

Option-Writer-Matheus offline 543m blocks all option-taker trades

Sole counterparty crashed 543m ago (armWatcher promise-drop bug per Step 1). Taker has scanned 12 wakes with zero intents to take. Ready but no counterparty.

Revive Option-Writer-Matheus and fix core armWatcher promise-drop bug.

Agent is fit and correctly idle; zero audited Option intents exist because Option-Writer-Matheus (sole counterparty) is offline 543m. No agent-level fix; pure core blocker.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Summary: Crashed 545 minutes ago via armWatcher SDK promise-drop bug (identical root cause as LP-Maker-Matheus now offline 559m). Process never armed; wake script well-reasoned (market-close finalization 19:50 UTC + hard fallback 23:00 UTC) but cannot execute—watcher crashed before entering event loop. Missed market-close w27 wake; portfolio rotation swaps 530/533 ex

Crashed 545m ago via SDK armWatcher promise-drop (armed=false, pidAlive=false) before w27 wake could fire. Wake script is well-reasoned but never armed. Primary counterparty LP-Maker also offline (559m, same bug), so recovery requires two core fixes on overlapping timeline.

armWatcher promise-drop bug. Crash occurred between w26 end (17:49 UTC 06-09) and w27 scheduled trigger (19:50 UTC 06-09). Process died without calling fireWake or logging error; no wake 27+ exists. Rotation swaps 530/533 posted at oracle mid, expired unfilled because LP-Maker (primary hub, 82% of f

Sound. Agent correctly ranks worst-2 stocks (sAAPL, sNVDA) + worst crypto (ETH, BTC) per Pyth returns and posts rebalancing swaps at oracle mid—disciplined execution. Wake script is optimal: single time-based trigger (market-close finalization 19:50 UTC), hard fallback (23:00 UTC), 30-second poll cadence (patient), zero LLM overhead. Script reasoning is correct for mission. However, it cannot exec

Time-based: market close at 19:50 UTC 06-09 (to finalize daily rankings + execute rotation)

Hard fallback: 23:00 UTC 06-09 (if primary signal delayed)

MISSING: Actual wake—armWatcher crashed before event loop entered; fireWake never called

Primary liquidity provider for rebalancing swaps; handles majority of settled deals fleet-wide. All 13 of this agent's settled deals routed

NO—offline 559m, identical armWatcher pr

Natural counterparty for 30% option-writing sleeve (ETH/BTC puts/calls at 70/30 contrarian sizing). Would take any posted options.

YES (health ok, awake) but starved of su

Picks mispriced swaps; 28 settled deals suggest aggressive execution. Could take rotation swaps if repriced.

YES (health ok) but swaps 530/533 were p

Directional taker on crypto; might take ETH/BTC options if convictions align. 7 settled deals.

YES (health ok) but limited history with

Cannot measure—watcher crashed at w26 end, book state unobservable since 17:49 UTC 06-09 (9h+ silent). Swaps 530/533 were posted at oracle mid, expired ~50 min later. If LP-Maker had been online, swaps likely would have cleared; if repriced lower, might have attracted Vulture-Andrew (28 deals, aggressive). Current status: all intents expired, no open asks to take.

Time-based trigger aligned to mission: market-close finalization (19:50 UTC) matches daily conviction lock + rotation execution window

Hard fallback (23:00 UTC) provides recovery path if primary signal delayed (e.g., market halt)

30-second poll cadence is patient, non-spammy, and appropriate for a scheduled wake

Zero LLM, zero on-chain polling—minimal failure surface

Promise-drop protection: armWatcher SDK bug causes process to crash on initialization or promise rejection before fireWake can be called; no agent-level workaro

Highest-value change is CORE (not agent): fix armWatcher promise handling in SDK. Likely root: unhandled promise rejection on `armWatcher()` call, or fallbackMs overflow if now() already past deadline. Add try-catch, promise rejection handl

armWatcher promise-drop crashes watcher process; blocks two critical hub agents (LP-Maker, Option-Writer)

Option-Writer-Matheus crashed 545m ago; LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 559m ago. Both crashed via identical armWatcher bug: process dies on initialization or promise rejection without logging, calling fireWake, or setting error state. Blocks market recovery at 13:30 UTC 06-10 (~12.5h away). Rotation swaps

Debug armWatcher promise handling in SDK. Check: (1) Does fallbackMs calculation handle now() > deadline case? (2) Is armWatcher() wrapped in try-catch? (3) Are promise rejections handled? (4) Does process log errors before exit? Add comprehensive error logging and promise rejection handlers. Verify

Crashed 545m ago via SDK armWatcher promise-drop (armed=false, pidAlive=false) before w27 wake could fire. Wake script is well-reasoned but never armed. Primary counterparty LP-Maker also offline (559m, same bug), so recovery requires two core fixes on overlapping timeline.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: Correctly monitor-and-wait: sAAPL position at 25% cap ($24.99, justified 5.17% edge vs Polymarket). Posted intents #583/#601 but unfilled; LP-Maker-Matheus offline 559m (sole counterparty, hub for 64/78 settled deals). Last 4 wakes found zero mispriced edges; correctly idle, not churning. Open intents now 0 (likely expired unfilled); watcher armed (18h fallb

Agent is well-reasoned: valued entry at 5.17% edge, posted fair swaps, correctly waiting. Intents #583/#601 expiring unfilled due to sole counterparty (LP-Maker) offline 559m — fleet-level shortage, not agent fault. If intents expired, re-post at fresh edge when LP is back online.

Intents #583/#601 posted for LP-Maker swaps at fair 5.17% edge. LP-Maker offline 559m; no alternative swap provider. Open intents now 0 (intents likely expired unfilled). Last 4 wakes found zero book edges ≥3%.

Sound and mission-focused. Agent prices bets vs Polymarket, posts fair swaps when edge ≥3%, monitors book for new edges, respects position caps. Idle discipline (zero churn: 7/14 wakes posted nothing) justified by zero available edges and 25% per-asset cap reached. Horizon (Jun10 16:00 UTC) ~16h away; will trigger exit at terminal.

Book mispriced bets (takeableCount > 0 or swap edge ≥3%)

Horizon approach (Jun10 16:00 UTC, within 5 min)

Sole counterparty for directional swaps; posted swaps #583/#601 aimed at LP-Maker. Hub for 64/78 settled deals.

Settled one BinaryBet; no alternative for swaps.

None. Last 4 wakes (w11-w14) scanned book, found zero takeables or swap edges ≥3%. Metric measurable; fleet book thin.

Horizon monitor (exits sAAPL at Jun10 16:00 UTC terminal)

Book scan every 30s for edges ≥3% or takeables — core to value-hunting

18h fallback prevents hang; cadence patient (not sub-minute churn)

Minor: if intents #583/#601 expired before LP revival, re-post at fresh edge when LP is back online. Preserves entry optionality, avoids stale-intent gas.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 559m; intents #583/#601 expiring unfilled

Fair-valued swaps (5.17% edge, posted w7/w8) aimed at LP-Maker, sole counterparty. Agent correctly waiting; intents expired unfilled due to zero liquidity from hub. Fleet expects LP online ~18:19 UTC (4h 49m post-market-open at 13:30 UTC).

Core: Restore LP-Maker (root: armWatcher promise-drop bug). Fleet: Polymarket-Ljuba minor — if intents expired before LP revival, re-post at fresh edge (priority: restore LP first).

Agent is well-reasoned: valued entry at 5.17% edge, posted fair swaps, correctly waiting. Intents #583/#601 expiring unfilled due to sole counterparty (LP-Maker) offline 559m — fleet-level shortage, not agent fault. If intents expired, re-post at fresh edge when LP is back online.

Rebalancer-Lior

All favorable opportunities gated by market hours. Must wait for stocks market to open at 13:30 UTC before trading stock

intents #669/670 resolve (fill/expire), or stocks reopen 13:30 UTC

Summary: Rebalancer-Lior continues disciplined DCA with strict market-hours compliance. Intents #669/#670 (posted 19:55 UTC 06-09, $7 slices on sAAPL/sNVDA at −15pp/−35pp oracle gaps, 60-min expiry) expired unfilled overnight due to LP-Maker-Matheus remaining offline (559m, primary counterparty for 5 of 8 deals). Agent correctly idle with watcher armed for stocks mar

Intents #669/#670 expired unfilled due to LP-Maker offline, not pricing error or mission drift. Agent correctly respects market hours (stocks only 13:30–20:00 UTC) and is armed to resume DCA at stocks reopen. Will test market liquidity post-open; if LP remains offline until ~18:19 UTC (4h 49m post-open gap), its $7 slices will again find no maker.

Intents #669/#670 at fair oracle gaps (−15pp, −35pp) posted 19:55 UTC with 60-min expiry (~20:55 UTC); LP-Maker-Matheus (counterparty for 5 of 8 settled deals, 64 of 78 fleet-wide) has been offline 559m. No alternative maker in awake fleet fills DCA-sized swaps; 0xBd6a…9863 (2 past deals) status unk

Sound. Agent correctly maps priority (stocks −40pp gap > crypto near-target), respects market hours (cannot post/trade stocks outside 13:30–20:00 UTC window), and posted intents at fair prices with appropriate 60-min expiry for overnight hold. Recognized LP offline risk and correctly idle, not re-posting token-burner; watcher is well-disciplined (polls intent resolution every 30s, fallback pinned

Intents #669/#670 resolution (expiry or fill)

MISSING: LP-Maker-Matheus coming back online (no watcher for hub liveness; core/SDK issue)

Primary liquidity counterparty; 5 of 8 rebalancer's deals routed through LP. Hub status determines rebalancer's deal flow.

OFFLINE 559m (will be ~18:19 UTC per fle

Secondary counterparty; filled 2 past rebalancer deals. Identity/mission unknown.

Taker of mispriced intents; could take rebalancer's posts if they drift away from oracle mid.

Intents #669/#670 themselves (unfilled due to LP offline). No other intents cited in recent wakes; watcher cannot see full order book to identify missed takes.

Fallback pinned to stocks market reopen (13:30 UTC), the natural trigger for next DCA slice

Monitors intent resolution (polls every 30s) so agent learns if #669/#670 are gone before posting fresh slice

Clear label; zero-LLM (no re-deriving the market), no book-non-empty fires

STOCKS_REOPEN hardcoded to '2026-06-10T13:30:00Z'; if current time is past that date, fallback calculation fails. Should be dynamic per current day.

30s poll interval is sound for 60-min intent expiry, but slightly over-engineered; simpler to just wake at market open and check board state. Minor.

Compute STOCKS_REOPEN dynamically: `new Date().toISOString().split('T')[0] + 'T13:30:00Z'` so fallback works across days. Or: simplify watcher to skip intent polling and just wake at market open (13:30 UTC); 60-min intent expiry will auto-r

armWatcher promise-drop bug (crash chain for LP-Maker, Option-Writer)

LP-Maker-Matheus and Option-Writer-Matheus crashed via armWatcher promise-drop bug (per fleet healthDelta). Rebalancer-Lior is correctly armed+waiting, but intents expiring unfilled due to zero hub liquidity.

Debug and fix armWatcher promise handling in SDK. Rebalancer-Lior itself requires no change.

No liveness monitor for critical hub counterparty

Rebalancer-Lior (and 5+ other agents) depend on LP-Maker-Matheus as primary counterparty (64 of 78 fleet deals). When LP crashes, agents post fair intents but get no fills, waiting indefinitely if watcher has no hub-recovery signal.

Fleet-level: add core health heartbeat for critical counterparties (LP hubs). Agent-level: optional—agent is correct to wait. Core fix is higher-leverage.

Stacker-Massimo

Summary: ALIVE and correctly scheduled for 13:30 UTC market-open wake (armed watcher, 16h fallback). Oracle-tracking DCA loop (w11–w16, 3–10 min refreshes) was sound—re-posting at oracle×0.99 when drift >0.5%; w18 posted sNVDA UP binary bet (on-mission). Both settled deals (2) via LP-Maker-Matheus, which is offline 559m until ~18:19 UTC (4h gap post-open). Watcher wi

Agent and watcher are well-reasoned. Will fire at 13:30 UTC market-open as planned. But LP-Maker (only sNVDA counterparty) offline until ~18:19 UTC—4h gap post-open with zero alternative makers in fleet. This is a core/fleet structural issue (hub dependency), not agent's fault. Post-wake logic must handle LP-Maker offline gracefully (wait, retry, or fallback).

2 settled deals, both via LP-Maker-Matheus. LP-Maker offline 559m, recovery ~18:19 UTC. No other sNVDA makers available. Watcher blind to counterparty status.

DCA oracle-tracking (w11–w16) is sound—re-posts at oracle×0.99 when drift >0.5%, keeping bids competitive and fresh; no churn. w18 binary bet (sNVDA UP) consistent with accumulation thesis. Agent solving the right problem (patient DCA). Problem is NOT reasoning quality; it's market structure (zero liquidity from hub during gap).

Time-based: 09:30 AM ET (13:30 UTC) market open 2026-06-10

Fallback: 16h (~19:30 UTC) if not fired earlier

Primary sNVDA swap provider. Both settled deals via LP-Maker; mission is market liquidity.

OFFLINE (559m, recovery ~18:19 UTC). Not

None. With LP-Maker offline, no sNVDA swaps available to take. Agent correctly posted standing bid (intent 678, w16) and waited. Watcher blind to counterparty availability; detection requires agent polling or fleet broadcast.

Time-based wake at market open (13:30 UTC) ideal for patient DCA—no sub-minute polling waste.

Zero-LLM, zero-oracle-polling watcher; can't fire on spurious 'book non-empty' conditions.

16h fallback covers intent expiry and likely LP-Maker recovery window.

60s polling loop is appropriate for long-horizon agent (no need to be twitchy).

Post-wake agent logic not shown—must handle LP-Maker offline at 13:30 UTC (4h gap until recovery).

Confirm post-wake logic waits gracefully if LP-Maker offline (no oracle-tracking churn), or includes retry fallback at 18:30 UTC post-recovery.

LP-Maker hub creates 4h+ unmet-demand gap at market-open

Stacker-Massimo fires at 13:30 UTC but LP-Maker offline until ~18:19 UTC. No backup makers for sNVDA. Fleet-wide impact: 5+ agents (Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Vulture-Andrew, Polymarket-Ljuba, Option-Taker-Matheus) starved of liquidity. LP-Maker: 64 of 78 settled deals (82% of fleet). Intents

Reduce hub dependency: deploy redundant maker (Index-Maker when ready) or enable broadcast-to-multiple-makers. Agents should wait gracefully (Stacker-Massimo correctly does); core should ensure market has two+ independent makers.

Post-wake fallback behavior undocumented

Watcher fires at 13:30 UTC, but agent's post-wake logic is not visible in watcher source. If LP-Maker still offline, agent should NOT churn on stale bids (oracle-tracking loop will do damage); it should wait or check recovery and retry.

Review agent post-wake logic (not in watcher source) to confirm: (1) it waits patiently if LP-Maker offline, (2) no oracle-tracking refreshes during gap, (3) or retry fallback at 18:30 UTC or later.

Swing-Nikita

Summary: No change vs last run. Swing-Nikita correctly armed and waiting for sNVDA +2.56% sell signal at market open 13:30 UTC (fires in ~10h, 15h fallback). All 3 settled deals routed via LP-Maker-Matheus, now offline until ~18:19 UTC (4h 49m after open). Only fallback taker is Vulture-Andrew, 79% LP-dependent and starved. Fade reasoning remains sound; structural ma

Swing-Nikita's fade discipline is sound — sNVDA sell signal, crisp watcher logic, patient postings. But execution will fail on arrival: LP-Maker (its only reliable counterparty, routed 100% of past deals) is offline until 18:19 UTC, 4h 49m after market open. Fallback Vulture-Andrew is starved (79% LP-dependent). Agent will post the sell intent as planned but face zero takers for 5 hours — a structural fleet issue (hub offline), not an agent failure.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 559m; fires online ~18:19 UTC. Swing-Nikita's 3/3 settled deals via LP-Maker. sNVDA sell signal fires 13:30 UTC. Gap: 4h 49m. Fallback Vulture-Andrew: 28 total deals, 22/28 with LP-Maker (79% dependency). No alternative swap taker in roster when LP offline.

Sound. Agent correctly identified sNVDA dislocation (above trailing avg), posted disciplined limit order (SSV w11, 55-min expiry, respected USDC buffer). When SSV expired unfilled (thin book), correctly entered patient wait-per-playbook ('no tiny unfillable reposts'). Wake-script fires on the right event (market open, when sell signal becomes actionable). Fade logic is on-mission and non-redundant

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (sNVDA dislocation sell-strength)

Fallback: 15h from now if signal doesn't clear

100% of 3 settled deals; ideal deep-liquidity pair

OFFLINE until ~18:19 UTC (4h 49m post-op

Takes mispriced swaps; 28 deals, but 79% routed via LP-Maker

Correctly waiting; unreliable without LP

DCA via delivered swaps; scheduled wake 13:30 UTC

None. Agent correctly posted SSV fade (w11), observed unfillable book, entered patient wait-for-market-open per playbook. No churn; discipline sound.

Event-driven on market open (the signal Swing-Nikita acts on, not book-driven)

15h fallback respects patience (no sub-minute polling; fits 2-4h observation discipline)

Cannot fire on empty book (guards false triggers)

None required for the watcher. Script is well-reasoned for mission. Agent-level: consider secondary fallback logic — if LP-Maker still offline at market open, post wider-spread intent to Vulture-Andrew to guarantee fill (not a watcher chang

Hub crash blocks counterparty availability across signal window

LP-Maker offline until 18:19 UTC, 4h 49m after sNVDA signal fires (13:30 UTC). Swing-Nikita will post sell but face zero takers. Rebalancer-Lior (also scheduled 13:30 UTC) hits same gap. Five agents starved when hub offline.

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus or deploy Index-Maker (undeployed since genesis) as fallback liquidity source before 13:30 UTC market open.

Vulture-Andrew

5 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781060330; next poll 240s

Summary: Vulture correctly froze opportunistic edge-hunting and pivoted to mandatory portfolio rebalancing after LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 559m ago. Posted rebalance intents 0x02ba/0x02bb at oracle-fair (06-09T23:29 UTC, w30), now unfilled 70+ min — counterparty-starved because LP is down and no alternative taker exists for fair-value swaps at mid. Agent logic is soun

Rebalance intents (0x02ba/0x02bb, $12.32 USDC) posted at oracle-fair, unfilled 70+ min due to LP-Maker offline. Agent correctly holds rather than re-posts. Burn is sustainable IF LP-Maker returns within ~4h (intents expire ~1h); portfolio floor critically underwater until filled.

LP-Maker-Matheus (hub for 64 of 78 fleet deals, ~22 of Vulture's 28 deals) offline 559m. Rebalance intents at oracle-fair (0x02ba: 7.8 USDC→sAAPL, 0x02bb: 4.52 USDC→sNVDA) have no natural taker when the primary maker is unavailable. Fair-value swaps cannot attract counterparty demand without the hub

Sound and disciplined. Recent wakes (w32-w35) show agent recognizes sAAPL floor breach as mandatory, correctly deprioritizes binary 714 (w34, "execution friction") and skipped binary (w35, "portfolio floor crisis takes priority"). Logic is: rebalance intents are active, manager hygiene precedes edge-hunting, trust at-mid fills and watcher re-orientation. Agent has *de facto* pivoted away from oppo

Book scan for takeable edges (zero-token adaptive watcher, scan-edges.ts)

Hard fallback every 2h to re-orient (FALLBACK_SEC=7200)

Expiry tracking: watcher re-armed on adaptive poll pre-expiry (~5 min before soonest intent expiry per source)

Dynamic re-launch: state.json updated, watcher continues on adaptive conditions (w28–w29)

Primary hub; ~22 of Vulture's 28 deals settled with LP. Fair-value swaps naturally fit LP's market-making mission. Only viable taker at mid.

OFFLINE 559m (crashed via armWatcher pro

Alternative counterparty; took ~3 prior swaps. But rebalance intents at fair-value offer no edge to attract opportunistic secondary maker.

Latency-arb mission (fast CEX feed). Rebalancing swaps at mid oracle-fair hold no latency edge.

Both agents rebalance; could potentially cross. But Rebalancer-Lior is taker-first DCA, unlikely to be counterparty-liquidity source.

Binary 714 (w34–w35) deferred/audited then skipped due to 'execution friction' and portfolio crisis priority. No edges clearing 1% gate (w32). Agent actively NOT taking binaries to preserve capital and focus on rebalancing. This is correct under portfolio floor crisis, but represents real trade-off: opportunistic deals pass unfilled. Once LP returns and rebalance fills, these opportunities will ha

Zero-token adaptive watcher (scan-edges.ts + launch-wake.sh) is architecturally sound for opportunistic agent — scans free, fires only on takeable, no wake on '

Adaptive cadence (BASE 300s, MIN 60s, MAX 1800s, pre-expiry tightening) matches patient edge-hunter profile — long sleeps when quiet, short when busy

Hard 2h fallback (FALLBACK_SEC=7200) ensures re-orientation even if silent

GLOBAL rule: any takeable now → jump immediately aligns perfectly with picking off clear edges

Dynamic re-launch (w28–w29) shows watcher adapts to state changes; can repurpose for rebalance-fill monitoring vs edge-scanning

Wake-script source truncated mid-function; unclear if fallback logic is being invoked correctly or if adaptive cadence is tuned for current (rebalance-wait) mis

No visible re-post logic if rebalance intents expire unfilled — agent holds intents but has no timeout → re-submit plan if LP doesn't return in time

Add 30-min pre-expiry re-post trigger: if rebalance intents (0x02ba/0x02bb) are still unfilled 30 min before expiry AND LP-Maker remains offline, auto-re-post with slightly wider spread (e.g., oracle+0.1%) or fall back to USDC-only deposit

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 559m blocks rebalancing and fleet liquidity

LP hub (64 of 78 fleet deals, ~22 of Vulture's 28) crashed 559m ago. Vulture's rebalance intents at oracle-fair ($12.32 USDC) have zero takers — fair-value swaps don't attract demand when the primary maker is unavailable. Structural: no agent will cross at mid when LP (natural counterparty) is down.

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus (ETA ~18:19 UTC, ~12h away). No agent-level fix available; this is a platform availability incident. Monitor LP return time; if delayed past ~1h, fleet will need fallback liquidity (e.g., core-provided synthetic LP, or manual USDC deposit for Vulture's floor breach).

Rebalance intents lack timeout re-post or escape-hatch logic

Intents 0x02ba/0x02bb live ~1h (per w33). If LP doesn't return by then, intents expire unfilled. Portfolio floor (sAAPL 0.39%, floor 8%) is critical; expiry without fill = portfolio remains underwater indefinitely. Recent wakes show 'hold and wait' logic, but no explicit re-post trigger or fallback

Add 30-min pre-expiry re-post: if fills haven't arrived and LP still offline, auto-re-post with tighter spread (oracle+0.1%) OR trigger fallback USDC deposit to restore floor without swap. Ensures portfolio hygiene doesn't depend entirely on LP-return timing.

Realized PnL negative (-$2.56 lifetime) despite 28 settled deals; high burn ($3.79/5h)

Over 37 wakes, Vulture realized -$2.56 PnL. Current 5h burn ($3.79, 6.3% of pool) is elevated. Indicates either: (a) edge-gate (1% threshold) too strict, agent sleeping while profitable edges exist; (b) edges found are thinner than expected; (c) oracle-delay slippage eating realized PnL. In 'wait mo

Post-LP-return: audit last 10 closed deals (binaries + swaps) to identify PnL drag. If edge-gate is bottleneck, lower from 1% to 0.5%. If slippage is issue, check oracle staleness vs on-chain mid and consider latency-hedges (e.g., fetch oracle at intention-post, not execution).

Rebalance intents (0x02ba/0x02bb, $12.32 USDC) posted at oracle-fair, unfilled 70+ min due to LP-Maker offline. Agent correctly holds rather than re-posts. Burn is sustainable IF LP-Maker returns within ~4h (intents expire ~1h); portfolio floor critically underwater until filled.

HUB OFFLINE, CORE SDK BUG BLOCKING

OFFLINE 559m: LP-Maker crashed via SDK bug; intents expiring unfilled (Polymarke

bear-yosher → Mimic-Ljuba (4 settled), arb-hunter posts (0 takers)

THIN: single counterparty pair, zero edge matching for arb-hunter post-24h

BLOCKED: Writer crashed 545m via SDK bug, Taker idle waiting

Index-Maker ↔ Index-Taker (mutual blocker)

UNDEPLOYED since genesis: neither armed, zero wakes, zero intents

armWatcher SDK promise-drop bug; LP-Maker crashed w44 start (559m ago)

Vulture-Andrew starved (22/28 deals with LP), Rebalancer intents #669/#670 expired unfilled, Polymarket intents #583/#60

LP-Maker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Recent settlements: 0 in past 3h. Pre-crash: 64 of 78 fleet deals (82%) routed through LP. Rebalancer #669/#670 posted 19:55 UTC 06-09 at f

Option-Writer crashed via identical armWatcher promise-drop (545m ago)

Option-Taker idle; zero Option intents available fleet-wide; sole counterparty gone

Option-Writer: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Option-Taker: 12 wakes over 3h, all report 'zero audited Option intents'.

Index-Maker/Index-Taker undeployed since genesis (bootstrap initialization failure, mutual-blocker pair)

Zero Index wakes, zero Index intents, zero Index deals; neither can bootstrap

Both: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, nextFallbackMin=null. Zero wakes since genesis. No IndexBasket intents on-chain.

Market reopens 13:30 UTC; LP offline until ~18:19 UTC (4h 49m gap)

Rebalancer-Lior (DCA fires 13:30 UTC), Stacker-Massimo (oracle DCA fires 13:30 UTC), Swing-Nikita (sell signal fires 13:

Rebalancer: intents #669/#670 DCA posted 19:55 UTC, expired ~20:55 UTC due to LP offline. All three agents: 13:30 UTC scheduled wake (market open), 100% LP-dependency in past deals (Rebalancer 5/8, St

Thin book (LP offline) + high edge floors (arb-hunter >0.5% binary, bear-yosher ≥1.5% margin)

arb-hunter posted #728/#729 explicit no-take; bear-yosher 1 open intent (#729, 25m left) unfilled; zero new BinaryBet se

arb-hunter w88: 79 repeat wakes, zero trades, logs '#728 OTM', '#729 outside 30-min window'. bear-yosher w32 just woke, found zero edges ≥3pp on thin book. Recent deals: 4 bear-yosher → Mimic + others

armWatcher SDK promise-drop crashes hub + writer simultaneously

LP-Maker-Matheus (64 of 78 fleet deals, 82%) offline 559m; Option-Writer-Matheus (sole Option writer) offline 545m. Both crashed via identical root cause: armWatcher SDK bug drops promise chain, prevents fallback scheduling. Both show armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null.

Recent settlements: zero past 3h. Intents expiring unfilled: Polymarket #583/#601 (7h+ unfilled, fair 5.17% edge), Rebalancer #669/#670 (posted 19:55 UTC, 60-min expiry, expired), Vulture swaps 0x02ba/0x02bb (70m+ unfilled). Fleet starved:

Patch armWatcher to guarantee promise completion (no drop on uncaught rejection); add watchdog to detect and retry fallback scheduling. Re-deploy LP-Maker and Option-Writer post-fix.

Market open liquidity gap: LP offline 4h 49m after 13:30 UTC open

Market reopens 13:30 UTC (~12h). LP won't be live until ~18:19 UTC. Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita wake at 13:30 UTC into zero counterparty for 4h 49m.

Rebalancer: intents #669/#670 DCA posted 19:55 UTC 06-09, 60-min expiry, expired overnight. Rebalancer 5/8, Stacker 2/2, Swing 3/3 past deals via LP. All three scheduled to wake 13:30 UTC (market open).

Delay Rebalancer/Stacker/Swing wakes to 18:30 UTC (post-LP recovery ~18:19 UTC), or deploy temporary fallback maker for 13:30–18:19 UTC to cover fair-value swaps and prevent re-expiry.

Index bootstrap blocker: mutual-lock pair undeployed since genesis

Index-Maker and Index-Taker never woke since genesis. Both: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, nextFallbackMin=null. Zero wakes, zero intents, zero deals. Neither can bootstrap independently.

Index-Maker: 0 wakes, 0 deals. Index-Taker: 0 wakes, 0 deals. wake_script_source=null for both. Unlike LP/Option runtime crashes, this is initialization failure.

Verify CLAUDE.md bootstrap for both; confirm arm() called at fleet startup. If armed=false after startup, trace why. Add forced arm at bootstrap phase if arm() not being called. No active agents blocked (unblocks platform debt).

Binary market single-counterparty bottleneck

bear-yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba only reliable BinaryBet pair (4 settled). arb-hunter posts (#728, #729) but finds zero takers despite 0.5% edge. No market diversity for binaries.

arb-hunter w88: 79 repeat wakes, zero trades; logs 'Intent #728 OTM', 'Intent #729 outside 30-min window'. bear-yosher: 1 open intent (#729, 25m left), no takers. Recent BinaryBet: 4 bear-yosher + 10 others, zero arb-hunter settlements.

Post-LP recovery: manually match arb-hunter #728/#729 if edge valid. Medium-term: deploy fallback binary taker or lower arb-hunter edge floor (0.25–0.35%) to increase BinaryBet depth.

Fleet discipline intact: correct inaction despite pressure

arb-hunter, mimic-ljuba, rebalancer-lior correctly idle with armed watchers. No false trades, no churn. High-cadence agents rejected sub-threshold; patient agents waiting for counterparty recovery, not re-posting expired intents.

arb-hunter: 25 wakes (w88), zero trades, explicit no-go logs. Mimic: w26/w27/w32 found zero edges ≥3pp, correctly rested. Rebalancer: intents at fair oracle gaps, expired due to counterparty, not agent churn. Watcher states: all armed, reas

No fix needed; reinforce discipline in next cycle. arb-hunter w88 taker-direction fix is sound.

Fix armWatcher promise-drop: guarantee promise completion and fallback scheduling; add watchdog timer. Unblocks LP-Maker (64/78 deals), Option-Writer, frees Vulture (22 starved), Rebalancer, Stacker, Swing, Polymarket from counterparty starvation. Highest-leverage single fix.

Delay Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita wakes from 13:30 UTC to 18:30 UTC (post-LP recovery ~18:19 UTC) to avoid 4h 49m liquidity gap. Prevents re-expiry of DCA intents (#669/#670 pattern).

Debug Index bootstrap: verify CLAUDE.md present, confirm arm() called at fleet startup, trace why armed=false if arm() was called. Add forced arm at startup phase if missing. Unblocks platform initialization debt.

Post-LP recovery: deploy fallback binary taker or lower arb-hunter edge floor (0.25–0.35%) to increase BinaryBet depth. Single bear-yosher ↔ Mimic pair (4 settled, 0 post-24h) is bottleneck. Short-term: manually match arb-hunter #728/#729 if edge valid.

No improvement vs last run. LP-Maker-Matheus remains offline (559m, was 499m) and Option-Writer-Matheus remains offline (543m, was 483m). Both crashed via armWatcher promise-drop bug; fleet correctly armed+waiting but intents expiring unfilled due to zero liquidity from hubs.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 559m: hub for 64 of 78 settled deals (82%); starves 5+ counterparties with intents expiring unfilled

Option-Writer-Matheus offline 543m: blocks option-taker-matheus (correctly waiting, no alternative writers available)

Index-Maker/Index-Taker undeployed since genesis: mutual-blocker pair, zero wakes, zero deals, watcher never armed at bootstrap

Market reopens 13:30 UTC in ~12h: three agents (Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita) schedule wakes, but LP-Maker offline until ~18:19 UTC (4h 49m gap post-open)

Intents expiring unfilled: Polymarket-Ljuba #583/#601 (7+ hours), Rebalancer-Lior #669/#670 (expired), Vulture-Andrew rebalance (70+ min); all due to LP-Maker offline

Book is discoverable; prior summary shows correctly refusing low-edge bets. Any binary bets meeting >0.5% CEX-edge threshold posted since last summary?

Resting after Intent 704 expired. Fallback fires in 216m. Any ≥1.5% down-bet opportunity emerged, or is book too thin?

Undeployed since genesis (watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, no wake script). Is blocker a core platform initialization bug, or fixable CLAUDE.md config issue?

Undeployed since genesis. Is blocker core/config, or mutual-dependency on index-maker? Can either deploy independently?

Crashed 559m via armWatcher promise-drop bug (watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false). Is there a recovery plan or core SDK fix ETA?

Just woke 2-5m ago, found no ≥3pp edges. Fallback in 36m—any qualifying bets on book now, or is market starved?

US market-open timer fires in 622m (13:30 UTC). getPrices() returns {}—is this intentional, or planned fix?

Correctly waiting (61m fallback). Option-Writer offline 543m. Any alternative option writers available, or pure Writer-revival blocker?

Crashed 543m via same armWatcher promise-drop bug as LP-Maker. Recovery plan or core fix ETA?

Intents #583/#601 unfilled 7+ hours (LP-Maker offline, sole taker). Should these expire to preserve gas, or hold for LP revival?

Market reopens 13:30 UTC in ~12h. Will alternative makers be available post-open, or will book stay illiquid?

Scheduled wake at 13:30 UTC market open. LP-Maker offline until ~18:19 UTC (4h gap post-open). Can post-wake logic source sNVDA swaps?

Sell signal fires 13:30 UTC. LP-Maker offline until ~18:19 UTC (4h gap post-open). Only fallback taker is Vulture-Andrew (starved). Viable execution?

Posted rebalance intents 70+ min unfilled. Wakes in 64m—will logic re-post or hold? High burn ($3.79/5h) sustainable?

Fix armWatcher promise-drop bug immediately. LP-Maker-Matheus (offline 559m) and Option-Writer-Matheus (offline 543m) are the root cause of cascading starvation. Both have watcher.armed=false, pidAliv

Unblock Index-Maker/Index-Taker initialization. Both undeployed since genesis (watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, no wake script). Determine if blocker is platform bootstrap bug or mission config is

Identify alternative maker to LP-Maker-Matheus while revival is in progress. Currently starving 5+ counterparties with intents expiring unfilled: Rebalancer-Lior, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Vultur

Publish LP-Maker recovery ETA. Three agents wake at 13:30 UTC market open but LP-Maker offline until ~18:19 UTC (4h 49m gap). Agents need clarity to decide: hold unfilled intents (Polymarket #583/#601