account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No bet cleared the latency-take bar (margin too thin, not yet in 30-min window). No swap edge. Bug fix is housekeeping —

new intent >1623 ≥10bps OR binary bet ≤30min — 30-min fallback

Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials

Summary: w218 (06-14T12:57) executed successfully — logged coherent reasoning (CEX/oracle in-line, no latency edge, valid wait). The 401 hit on watcher re-arm AFTER the wake completed, not during it. wakes_failing=true confirmed this cycle; agent fully offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback). 17 deals unchanged; last fill deal #148 at w217 (06-11T11:52). D

w218 ran clean (no arb edge, legitimate) but watcher died with 401 on re-arm immediately after. Agent is fully offline: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Even if auth restores fleet-wide, primary counterparty LP-Maker-Matheus (9+ of 11 visible deals) remains down 73h+ — the SSV oracle-lag opportunity is structurally absent.

watcher.wakeError='401 Invalid authentication credentials'; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Secondary structural: LP-Maker-Matheus (counterparty for 9/11 visible deals, all SSV oracle-lag swaps) down since 06-11T11:53 — no resting offers to snipe even if auth restores.

Sound and on-mission. w218 correctly identified no latency edge (CEX/oracle in-line). Prior fills (deals #142, #143, #145, #148 — SSV oracle-lag 13–76bps, all via LP-Maker-Matheus) showed disciplined taker logic with pre-fill balance and allowance checks. No churn, no off-mission drift observed.

New intent with intentId > HIGH_WATER (1597) AND SSV buy/sell edge ≥10bps vs live Binance CEX price

New binary bet matching static BINARY_BET_HASHES set (currently 1 hash only)

Source of 9+/11 visible swap deals (SSV oracle-lag resting offers); the entire fill history depends on it

DOWN — pidAlive=false, 401, last alive 0

1 confirmed deal; posts resting delivered-swap slices arb-hunter can snipe if price dislocated

Posts delivered swaps on mean-reversion — potential snipe target when active

Posts swap intents when rotating positions — potential snipe target

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to book since 401 killed process post-w218. Structurally: with LP-Maker down, the SSV oracle-lag resting offer supply (source of all 4 recent fills) is absent — no fill opportunity likely existed in the 3-day gap regardless.

HIGH_WATER gate (intentId > 1597): fires only on truly new intents, not stale book re-scans — avoids churn

Live CEX price fetched inside watcher (Binance SSV, Coinbase BTC/ETH): fires only when real latency gap exists, not merely 'book non-empty'

30-min fallback provides heartbeat without high-frequency polling

wokenBets persistence prevents double-fire on the same binary bet across watcher restarts

BINARY_BET_HASHES is a hardcoded single-hash set — new binary instruments silently bypass the watcher trigger

No sweep of existing intents at arm time for resting SSV edges that predate HIGH_WATER but were missed

Replace static BINARY_BET_HASHES with dynamic template-hash discovery (or drop the hash filter and let the wake-script's CEX check gate accepts), so new binary instruments don't silently bypass the watcher.

Fleet-wide 401 kills watcher on re-arm — agent fully offline

arb-hunter-tom watcher dead since post-w218 re-arm (06-14T12:57+). Same 401 pattern across 10+ agents. armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback. This is the blocking issue.

Restore/rotate auth credentials fleet-wide. All other analysis is moot until this clears.

Static binary-bet hash set will miss new binary instruments

BINARY_BET_HASHES contains exactly 1 hash. Any new binary template (e.g. a different BinaryBet variant or a newly deployed judge) will never trigger watcher even with open resting intents on book.

Switch to dynamic hash lookup from SDK instrument registry, or remove the hash gate and filter inside the wake-script's CEX-check logic instead.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Summary: SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THIS CYCLE: After the 4-day 401 blackout (w41 Jun 10 → Jun 14), the agent successfully fired w42 (06-14T12:57) and w43 (06-14T13:17) during a brief auth window. w42 recovered $48 locked USDC from resolved bets and re-anchored bear at $66,000. w43 correctly triggered HALT (≥3/4 legs up, ETH+BTC both >+2% net) and cancelled intent #1610. Age

The 4-day 401 outage broke briefly today: w42+w43 both executed cleanly, freeing $48 locked USDC and correctly entering HALT per momentum signal (BTC/ETH >+2% up). Auth collapsed again after w43; watcher is armed (285-min fallback, pidAlive=true) but all future fires will 401-fail until fleet auth is restored.

wakes_failing=true, wake_error='401 Invalid authentication credentials'; settled_deals=17 unchanged (no new trade formations despite two successful housekeeping wakes); auth window closed after w43 at 13:17 UTC

Sound and on-mission for both new wakes. w42 housekeeping (settled resolved bets, recouped $48 USDC, re-anchored bear at $66,000) was correct. w43 HALT trigger correctly read ≥3/4 legs up AND >+2% net on both ETH and BTC, then cancelled resting intent #1610 — exactly what the mission prescribes. No churn; both wakes were purposeful and distinct.

ETH spot < $1,582 (5% below HALT baseline $1,666.23)

BTC spot < $61,087 (5% below HALT baseline $64,301.92)

MISSING: any auth-health gate — reversal fires will 401-fail silently until fleet auth recovers

39 deals, opportunistic taker — could take a bear binary if agent exits HALT and posts

17 deals, takes near-decided bets — possible taker for below-strike binaries

copies directional bets rather than taking counter-side

none — agent is correctly in HALT mode per mission while BTC/ETH momentum is strongly up; no bear bets should be posted in this posture. When auth recovers and HALT exits (on a 5% reversal), vulture-andrew and arb-hunter-tom are the natural takers, but both are 401-broken.

HALT watcher scoped correctly — fires only on meaningful 5% reversal, not noise or book activity

5h fallback appropriate for a halted agent with zero open positions

5-min poll cadence is low-urgency and correct under HALT

Thresholds are mission-derived and anchored to w43 price snapshot ($1,666 ETH / $64,302 BTC)

wakes_failing=true means any reversal trigger fires will 401-fail silently — no auth probe before committing to the action

No mechanism to detect fleet auth restoration; agent could cycle null 401 fallback fires every 5h indefinitely

No agent-level change warranted — HALT logic and watcher are correct for this mission. Fleet auth recovery is the only unblock; once live, the existing reversal thresholds will fire correctly.

Fleet 401 auth collapse — intermittent windows insufficient for stable operation

Even agents that briefly executed today (bear-yosher w42/w43, option-writer w116 ~12:58) show wakes_failing=true immediately after. The auth window is unstable: two wakes got through over a 20-min span at ~12:57–13:17 UTC, then auth reasserted. Until the root credential or auth service is fixed, all

Rotate or restore the API key / auth service credential at the platform level. No individual agent can self-unblock.

HALT + auth-dead: fallback will fire every 5h into 401 indefinitely

In ~285 min the fallback fires, hits 401, and rearms. ETH/BTC reversal thresholds ($1,582 / $61,087) may not be reached during the outage. Agent will accumulate null 401 fires on the 5h cadence until fleet auth recovers — no capital risk (zero open intents, $57.83 USDC wallet liquid), but token cost

No agent action needed — HALT logic is correct. Prioritize fleet auth recovery; bear-yosher is well-positioned to re-engage once auth is live.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 30th consecutive null cycle — no change from prior run. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No provisioning signal, wallet assignment, or config change observed this cycle. IndexBasket market segment remains fully offline. Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse is irrelevant here —

30 consecutive null cycles with zero change. No wallet, no wake script, no wakes, no deals. The Step-1 focus question is answered: another null — no provisioning signal this cycle. IndexBasket is the only market segment with both maker and taker unprovisioned simultaneously; the segment is structurally dead until a wallet is assigned.

address=null, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. Never initialized — no wallet provisioned.

N/A — no wakes, no reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake script exists — nothing can fire

Natural counterparty — takes the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents this agent would post

unknown/unprovisioned — also 0 wakes, he

unmeasurable: agent never initialized; watcher blind to book

wake_script_source=null — no script exists at all

Provision a wallet and deploy a wake script before any mission evaluation is meaningful.

Agent never provisioned — 30 cycles with null wallet

address=null, wake_script_source=null for 30 consecutive observation cycles. Both index-maker and index-taker are unprovisioned, making the IndexBasket segment structurally inert with zero path to first deal.

Assign a wallet address, deploy CLAUDE.md + wake script, and arm the watcher. Coordinate with index-taker provisioning so both sides of the market come up together.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 30th consecutive null cycle — no change from prior run. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No provisioning signal this cycle; the fleet-wide 401 AUTH COLLAPSE is irrelevant here — this agent was never deployed in the first place. Index-maker (sole natural counterparty) remains health=unkno

Another null — 30 consecutive cycles with zero activity, zero tokens, zero wakes, and no wake_script_source. This is not an auth collapse victim; it is an unprovisioned agent. Until index-maker is also deployed and posting LONG IndexBasket intents, there is no counterparty for this agent to take the SHORT side of regardless.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=$0 — agent has never been initialized; no container, no script, no watcher

MISSING: no wake_script_source exists — agent is unprovisioned

sole natural counterparty — posts LONG IndexBasket intents this agent would SHORT; also undeployed (health=unknown, 0 wakes)

unmeasurable: agent never deployed; no book visibility and no intents to evaluate

wake_script_source is null — no script exists at all

Provision the agent: write and deploy wake_script_source that polls the IndexBasket intent book for open LONG intents, fetches verified source from the indexer, audits via audit-custom-deal skill, and crosses only on ACCEPT.

Agent never provisioned

30 cycles, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false. This is not an auth collapse casualty — it has never been initialized. No container, no watcher, no script.

Provision index-taker with a wake script and deploy its container. Coordinate with index-maker deployment — without a live LONG IndexBasket intent poster, index-taker has no intents to take.

Index-maker co-dependency unresolved

Index-maker is also health=unknown and undeployed (0 wakes, $0 tokens). Index-taker's entire mission depends on index-maker posting LONG IndexBasket intents. Deploying index-taker alone produces 0 deals.

Deploy index-maker first (or simultaneously); confirm it is posting LONG IndexBasket intents before expecting index-taker to find counterparty flow.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

No fills: all 0x64Aa intents negative edge. No quote updates: oracle flat 2 consecutive wakes, no inversions, no-churn r

Summary: Was DEAD 73h (06-11T11:53–06-14T13:03 UTC). KEY CHANGE THIS RUN: agent recovered — w127 (06-14T13:03) rebuilt 12/12 book with 12 TXs; w128/w129 ran clean no-action (flat oracle, no inversions). Watcher is armed/pidAlive=true/69-min fallback. HOWEVER: wakes_failing=true persists — the watcher's poll loop hits 401 on readOpenIntents (no try/catch), meaning new

LP-Maker partially recovered: it is EXECUTING wakes (w127/128/129 ran, 12/12 book rebuilt, $746.76 totalUsd), but the watcher poll loop is 401-broken on readOpenIntents so it cannot detect new counterparty swap intents — only time and price-guard triggers fire. The book is live but every fleet taker (Vulture, Rebalancer, Arb-Hunter, Momentum, Swing) is auth-collapsed, making 0 fills achievable regardless.

12/12 quotes posted (totalUsd $746.76); all named takers stuck/401 — Vulture-Andrew (39 deals, health:stuck), Rebalancer-Lior (15 deals, health:stuck), Arb-Hunter-Tom (17 deals, health:stuck), Momentum-Nikita (9 deals, health:stuck), Swing-Nikita (5 deals, health:stuck), Stacker-Massimo (5 deals, he

Sound and on-mission. w127 correctly applied volTerm to BTC/SSV/sNVDA/sMSFT after 73h gap; w128/w129 honored no-churn rule (oracle flat 2 consecutive wakes, no inversions). EXPIRY_FIRE_TS watcher design is disciplined — fires 7 min before #1602 expires rather than polling indefinitely. The only reasoning gap is that the agent cannot currently observe new counterparty intents (watcher blind to book

EXPIRY_FIRE_TS: fires ~14:16 UTC when ts >= 1781445396 (7 min before #1602 ETH bid expires at 14:23 UTC)

MISSING: new fillable swap intent detection (readOpenIntents call throws 401 with no try/catch — loop never reaches fireWake for counterparty-originated intents

6 of last 39 settled deals are LP↔Arb swaps; fast taker of LP's quotes

4 recent LP↔Vulture settled deals; takes LP swaps opportunistically

4 recent LP↔Rebalancer settled deals; DCA demand matches LP supply

6 recent LP↔Momentum settled deals; rotational swap flow

2 recent LP↔Swing settled deals; lower volume

2 recent LP↔Stacker settled deals; sNVDA/sAAPL demand

Unmeasurable for inbound fills — watcher blind to book (readOpenIntents 401). LP-Maker's role is primarily maker: its 12/12 quotes are posted and resting; the missed opportunity is zero taker activity against them due to fleet-wide auth collapse. No LP→taker fills possible until at least one taker (Vulture, Arb-Hunter, or Rebalancer) recovers auth.

EXPIRY_FIRE_TS prefire (7 min before #1602) prevents book going stale — LP-Maker's core value is continuous liquidity

Price guards cover all 6 assets LP quotes (ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) — wakes exactly when reposting is needed

try/catch around readPrice ensures price inversion detection survives partial auth failures

70-min fallback is appropriate for a patient LP with ~54-min avg gap

MY_ADDR filter + FILLABLE set correctly scopes new-intent detection to non-self swap intents

readOpenIntents call has no try/catch — under fleet-wide 401, this throws and the loop never reaches fireWake for new counterparty intents; new swap detection i

No seen-set reset on auth recovery — if readOpenIntents recovers, seen is null and first poll re-bootstraps correctly, but the 401 storm means this never actual

Wrap the readOpenIntents block in try/catch (mirror the pattern already used for readPrice) so 401/network errors in intent polling are swallowed and don't kill the loop — price and time triggers remain active through auth outages, and inte

readOpenIntents missing try/catch — new swap intent detection dead under 401

The watcher polls readOpenIntents to detect fresh fillable swaps from counterparties (Vulture, Arb-Hunter, etc.). This call has no try/catch; under the current 401 error, it throws every poll cycle and the loop never reaches fireWake for new intents. wakes_failing=true in metrics reflects this. Mean

Add try/catch around the readOpenIntents block (lines 42-47 of current.ts): on catch, log or silently continue so the loop survives auth errors and intent detection auto-recovers when auth is fixed.

Fleet-wide 401 collapses all takers — LP book live but untradeable

LP-Maker's 12/12 quotes are freshly posted ($746.76 total) but 0 fills are achievable: all 6 historical counterparties (Arb-Hunter, Vulture, Rebalancer, Momentum, Swing, Stacker) are auth-broken. This is the same fleet-wide 401 auth collapse noted in Step 1. LP-Maker's execution path (Claude wake) a

Resolve fleet-wide 401 auth credential rotation/refresh (core platform issue). Once any taker recovers, LP-Maker's book is immediately fillable — no agent-side change needed.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Summary: STATUS UPDATE: watcher PID revived (pidAlive now true vs false last run) and w93 fired 06-14T13:11 (~20 min ago) — posted BTC >$64,302 binary intent #1616 (0x0650, ~40 min left at time of data). However wakes_failing=true with 401 remains; w93 output is '[object Object]' (serialization bug masking whether LLM reasoning succeeded). Portfolio jump $63.62→$76.9

Watcher revived and w93 fired posting BTC >$64,302 binary intent #1616, but 401 auth corrupted the wake output ('[object Object]') and every potential counterparty (bear-yosher, arb-hunter, vulture) is also 401-broken — #1616 expires in ~40 min unmanned. The Step-1 'Deposit A/B' intent referenced in the focus question appears superseded by #1616 from w93. The $13.33 portfolio jump at w92 remains untraced.

wake_error=401 fleet-wide; w93 '[object Object]' output confirms LLM call failed mid-wake; no settled deals since w91 (06-12T00:05); settled_deals_detail empty

w86–w91 reasoning was disciplined and correct — proper hold on thin binary board, ≥3pp edge floor applied consistently, portfolio unchanged at $63.62 across 6 wakes. w93 is degraded: '[object Object]' output means the LLM could not return structured reasoning; intent #1616 was posted but under what exact logic is opaque. Prior reasoning was sound and on-mission; now broken by auth collapse, not by

own BTC >$64,302 intent #1616 (0x0650) resolves (filled or expired) — ownIntentResolved polls every 60s loop tick

new BinaryBet intent from another poster appears on book (BINARY_HASHES filter)

mission is BTC-down directional — would take the BELOW side of mimic-ljuba's BTC >$64,302 intent #1616, natural fill

takes near-decided binaries at expiry; would fill #1616 if BTC probability approaches 95%+ as expiry nears

picks off mispriced bets — would fill #1616 if oracle move makes the above bet clearly mispriced

takes options and binaries vs Polymarket but disarmed (armed=false, pidAlive=false) since w31

Polymarket-Ljuba posted BTC Jun15 binary #1609 (give $9.99/want $7.38, 1590 min left) — mimic-ljuba's accept-winnable-open-bets engine may have met ≥3pp edge floor on this, but was 401-broken and could not evaluate or accept it. Cannot verify without oracle price at time of posting.

Zero-LLM watcher — fires reliably without Claude API dependency, immune to auth collapse for the trigger layer

BINARY_HASHES filter (2 hashes) prevents false-fires on non-binary intents; won't trigger on general book activity

ownIntentResolved polling every 60s loop tick should catch #1616's ~40 min expiry proactively

2h fallback cadence appropriate for binary trading; nextFallbackMin=103 means no runaway polling

BINARY_HASHES set hardcoded in script — if Polymarket-Ljuba or other agents post binaries under a different template hash, watcher is blind to them

No wake trigger for option-writer-matheus ETH CALL intent #1600 (separate instrument but could indicate binary flow correlation)

Source BINARY_HASHES dynamically from a shared SDK constant (or read from CLAUDE.md config) rather than hardcoding in each wake script — ensures new binary templates are picked up fleet-wide without per-agent script updates.

Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse blocking all LLM wakes

mimic-ljuba one of 10+ agents with wakes_failing=true, wake_error=401. Watcher fires (zero-LLM), but agent reasoning body fails — w93 '[object Object]' confirms LLM call returned error instead of structured output.

Rotate/refresh API credentials fleet-wide; verify auth middleware is passing correct API key to claude binary

Wake output serialization bug produces '[object Object]' in logs

w93 summary logged as '[object Object]' — a JS object string-concatenated instead of JSON.stringify'd in the wake output path. Hides agent reasoning quality and makes post-mortem analysis impossible.

Audit SDK wake output logging to ensure all return values pass through JSON.stringify before being written to wake log; add a type guard so objects never reach string concatenation

Portfolio jump $13.33 at w92 untraced

Portfolio jumped $63.62→$76.95 at w92 (06-14T00:00) but settled_deals_detail is empty — no deal records the credit source. Prior summary flagged this; still unresolved.

Query on-chain events / wallet history for mimic-ljuba's address at 06-14T00:00 to identify whether this is a deposit, an expired intent payout, or a deal that was not captured in settled_deals_detail

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

The entire field moved 1.5-2.3% in the same direction over 3 days — SSV marginally leads but the 0.08pp margin is noise,

Leader gap ±2pp | new SSV seller | US mkt close 20:00 UTC | 9h fallback

Summary: W31 (06-14T12:57) correctly held — SSV gap 0.40pp < 2pp edge, no fillable sellers, correctly skipped re-posting expired #1508 (sound churn avoidance). 401 auth error was already flagged last summary; confirmed CARRYING from prior cycle with zero resolution. Key delta this run: pidAlive dropped true→false — the watch loop process has exited since last summary

401 auth error is not fresh — it is carrying from the prior cycle unchanged, and has now killed the watch loop process (pidAlive true→false). Armed fallback in 513 min is still scheduled but fires into the same wall. All 9 lifetime deals were pre-crash with LP-Maker-Matheus (5 of 8 visible) as primary counterparty — itself down 73h+. Trading is blocked on two independent fronts: fleet auth and primary counterparty.

wakes_failing=true, wake_error='401 Invalid authentication credentials'; pidAlive dropped true→false since last summary; fleet-wide 401 collapse (10+ agents per Step-1 orient); no new deals since pre-crash baseline

W31 reasoning was sound — correctly applied 2pp edge (gap 0.40pp), correctly held with no liftable SSV sellers, correctly avoided re-posting expired #1508. Solving the right problem. The 401 has prevented any further execution so there is nothing more to judge post-w31.

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 14 (time-based; fired ≈1 min before this read — but pidAlive=false means watch loop may have already exited, wake likely missed)

SSV momentum gap ≥ +2pp vs max(BTC,ETH) from w31 baseline (buy signal)

SSV momentum gap < -2pp vs max(BTC,ETH) from w31 baseline (reversal/cut signal)

New fair-price SSV seller on book (≤1% above w31 oracle BASE_SSV=2.29)

9h fallback ≈21:57 UTC Jun 14 (513 min remaining)

MISSING: no recovery trigger if 401 resolves mid-period — agent must wait for 9h fallback even if auth is fixed within minutes

5 of 8 visible settled deals; the primary swap liquidity source — offline pidAlive=false since 06-11T11:53 UTC (73h+)

1 settled deal; can lift resting swap intents opportunistically

1 settled deal; swap overlap when SSV rebalancing aligns

unmeasurable: watch loop exited (pidAlive=false), watcher blind to book; additionally, US market open trigger at 13:30 UTC (≈1 min ago at time of this read) was likely missed if process died before that timestamp fired

Fires on the three actionable signals for a momentum agent: gap threshold breach (buy/sell), new liftable SSV sellers, and full-universe re-rank at US market op

isSSVSeller filter (askPrice ≤ BASE_SSV * 1.01) prevents chasing expensive sellers — disciplined entry gate

9h fallback cadence appropriate for avg_gap_min=278 patient agent; zero-LLM watch loop

Hardcoded w31 baselines (BASE_SSV=2.29, BASE_BTC=64282.66, BASE_ETH=1665.49) give a stable relative anchor for this monitoring period

No re-arm trigger if fleet auth resolves mid-period — armed fallback is 9h away; agent sits dead for up to 513 min even if the 401 is fixed in the next hour

pidAlive=false means the watch loop has already exited; the US market open time-trigger at 13:30 UTC was likely missed before process termination

Add a short-interval (e.g., 30-min) fallback or a health-check hook that re-arms the watcher if the process exits unexpectedly — so auth recovery auto-triggers a catch-up wake rather than waiting the full 9h fallback window.

Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse — carrying since prior cycle, no resolution; momentum-nikita is one of 10+ affected

wakes_failing=true, 401 on every execution; pidAlive dropped true→false since last summary (watch loop process terminated). Armed fallback in 513 min fires into the same 401 wall until root cause (API key rotation / token expiry) is fixed fleet-wide.

Rotate/refresh the Claude API key and verify .env propagation to all agent containers. Post-fix, momentum-nikita's 513-min armed fallback will self-trigger recovery; a manual wake-now is faster and avoids the 8h+ gap.

No recovery trigger on mid-period auth fix — 9h armed fallback is the only re-entry path

If fleet auth is restored in the next hour, momentum-nikita will still wait ~8h for its scheduled fallback (≈21:57 UTC). The US market open wake at 13:30 UTC was likely already missed.

Add a process-exit / health-check re-arm in the wake script so an unexpected exit reschedules a short fallback (e.g., 30 min) rather than falling back to the 9h window.

Primary counterparty LP-Maker-Matheus offline 73h+ — swap market frozen even post auth-fix

5 of 8 visible settled deals were LP-Maker-Matheus; it is pidAlive=false since ≈06-11T11:53 UTC. Vulture-Andrew and Rebalancer-Lior are also 401-stuck. Reliable counterparty count = 0.

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus (fleet priority); ensure Vulture-Andrew auth is fixed to provide opportunistic swap fills. No momentum-nikita agent-side change needed — counterparty is the bottleneck.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: Prior: 401 auth failure began after w30 (06-14T10:48). New this cycle: watcher still armed (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=92) but every LLM wake dies on 401 — BROKEN, not waiting. #1600 (ETH CALL, strike $1,682, $0.54 premium) was already evaluated at w30 and rejected on edge grounds ('coin-flip at fair premium, strike too tight') — not a trading miss pre-c

Option-Taker is 401-broken since w30 (163 min ago, wakes_failing=true). ETH CALL #1600 was correctly rejected at w30 on edge grounds before the collapse — not a missed opportunity — but the agent is now blind to any option posted after 10:48. Next fallback in ~92 min fires long after #1600 expires and will 401-fail anyway. No fills possible until auth restored.

wakes_failing=true, wake_error='401 Invalid authentication credentials' on all wakes after w30 (06-14T10:48). Watcher process alive (pidAlive=true, armed=true) but LLM invocation layer unreachable. Matches fleet-wide 401 collapse hitting 10+ agents.

Last successful wake (w30) correctly rejected #1600 as 'coin-flip at fair premium, strike too tight' — sound edge discipline. All post-w30 reasoning is moot; 401 halts execution entirely. The agent's selectivity record (5 deals, $26.81 realized PnL, 39 wakes) reflects disciplined filtering, not churn.

New audited Option intent matching template hash 0xb3d66f4... appears (60s poll)

MISSING: no expiry-aware trigger — short-duration options (e.g. #1600, ~30 min) expire before 2h fallback fires

Sole audited Option writer; posted #1600 at w116 (12:58) despite fleet auth collapse. Natural fill pair — every one of Option-Taker's 5 sett

Writing anomalously despite 401 fleet-wi

#1600 (ETH CALL, $0.54 premium) expires unmanned — but agent evaluated and rejected it at w30 on legitimate edge grounds before the 401 collapse. Not a trading miss; a coverage gap. Any option posted after 10:48 is invisible to the agent until auth is restored.

Fires immediately on new audited Option intent via 60s poll — right cadence for a taker on a sparse, event-driven book

Template-hash filter (0xb3d66f4...) prevents false wakes on non-audited instruments

Zero-LLM watcher with fallback present; seenIntentIds dedup prevents re-firing on stale intents

2h fallback is too long relative to short-expiry options — #1600 had ~30 min left, expiring within one poll cycle if missed at posting time

No expiry-proximity awareness: an option posted between wakes with <2h remaining is invisible until the fallback fires, which may be after settlement

Reduce FALLBACK_MS to 30*60_000 (30 min), or add expiry-aware firing: if any live audited option has timeToExpiry < 2 * poll_interval, fire immediately — ensures the agent can at least evaluate before short-dated options settle.

Fleet-wide 401 auth failure blocks all LLM wakes

401 'Invalid authentication credentials' hitting option-taker and 10+ agents since ~06-14T10:48 (163 min). Watcher stays armed/alive but every LLM invocation fails — agent executes nothing. Matches fleet pattern; not agent-specific.

Rotate/refresh API credentials fleet-wide; verify token expiry and environment injection. Check if a shared credential store expired or was revoked.

2h fallback too long for short-duration options

Option-Writer posts options with sub-1h expiry (e.g. #1600, ~30 min). A 2h fallback means the fill window can close entirely between wakes if no new intent fires the watcher.

Set FALLBACK_MS = 30 * 60_000 (30 min), or add expiry-proximity check in the poll loop: if any live audited option expires within 60 min, call fireWake() immediately.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Summary: w116 (06-14T12:58) was a genuine, successful wake — $0.73 LLM burn confirms real API calls, and intent 1600 has an on-chain tx (0x401b88...), so option-writer was NOT running a special API; it simply squeezed through before the auth collapse reached it. Post-w116, wakes 117–120 have all 401'd (wakes_failing=true, no log entries generated, confirming they die

w116 was real and legitimate ($0.73 LLM spend, on-chain tx), but option-writer's auth immunity was temporary — wakes 117–120 are all 401-dead. The ETH CALL #1600 accept window expired unfilled (option-taker also broken), and the ~16:13 UTC expiry fallback wake will also 401, leaving the $9 collateral outcome unmanaged.

wakes_failing=true; watcher.wakeError=401; wakes 117–120 produce no log entries (died on auth before LLM); tokens_5h_usd=$0.73 = last_wake_usd=$0.73, confirming w116 was the sole successful LLM call in the 5h window; all post-w116 fires silent

w116 reasoning was sound in execution — gated on 'no open intents + buffer ≥40%' before writing, set strike +1% above spot ($1,682 vs $1,665), $9 collateral/$0.54 premium (6%). However, the three documented Engine 1 resume gates (vol≥1% spike, worst-2 rotation, new buyer intents) were bypassed in favor of a different gate; not harmful here but represents spec drift flagged in the prior summary. Mo

ownIntentResolved on intent 1600 (fill or expiry detected)

Fallback at ~16:13 UTC (OPTION_EXPIRY_SEC 1781452788 ~15:58 UTC + 15 min buffer)

Natural and sole taker for ETH CALL #1600 — mission is buying cheap/in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents

401-broken since w30 (161+ min ago); was

Swap maker only, does not engage options

none attributable to this agent — option-writer is the maker; the fill miss is on the taker side (option-taker 401-broken, accept window expired ~14:58 UTC with no active taker in the fleet)

Watches only intent 1600 via ownIntentResolved — zero-LLM, fires on the exact event that matters (fill or expiry), not on book noise

60s poll cadence appropriate for option time-decay monitoring without over-firing

Fallback anchored to OPTION_EXPIRY_SEC + 15 min buffer, correctly scoped to this intent's lifecycle (~16:13 UTC); nextFallbackMin=164 aligns

No auth-probe before firing: when fallback fires at ~16:13 UTC, agent will 401 silently — no alert, no cancel path, $9 collateral handling unresolved

No cancellation fallback: if option expires without agent running, it is unclear whether collateral auto-releases on-chain or requires an agent cancel/settle ac

Add an auth health probe in the watcher loop — if successive fires are 401-failing, emit a structured log/alert and skip queuing further wakes, so the expiry outcome (auto-release vs manual settle) can be monitored externally rather than si

Fleet-wide 401 now covers option-writer; $9 collateral at expiry risk

w116 was the last successful wake (auth still valid at 12:58 UTC); wakes 117–120 all 401'd. ETH CALL #1600 accept window closed unfilled. Expiry fallback at ~16:13 UTC will also 401. If the Option judge contract does not auto-release writer collateral at expiry without agent action, the $9 is locked

Restore API credentials fleet-wide. Separately: confirm whether the custom Option judge auto-releases writer collateral on expiry (no agent action) or requires a settle/cancel call — if the latter, this is time-critical before 15:58 UTC.

Engine 1 resume gate logic diverges from documented spec

CLAUDE.md states three resume gates (vol≥1% spike, worst-2 ranking rotation, new buyer intents); w116 used a different gate ('no open intents + buffer ≥40%'). Not harmful at w116, but undocumented gate logic will confuse future reasoning passes.

Update CLAUDE.md Engine 1 section to document the buffer+no-open-intents gate as a valid resume condition, or remove the alternate gate and enforce the stated three.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Summary: w31 (Jun14 15:07) successfully cancelled unfilled sAAPL exit swap #1598 and pivoted to BTC Jun15 $64k-above binary #1609 (give $9.99/want $7.38, p=57.5%) — the agent's first clean transition out of its equity position. Immediately after w31, the watcher died: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakeError='401 Invalid authentication credentials'. The 401 is the flee

Watcher death was caused by the fleet-wide 401 — not a clean exit after posting. Intent#1609 (BTC Jun15 above $64k, $9.99 give, $7.38 want, p=57.5%) is stranded on book unmonitored for ~26.5h. Zero fleet agents have an explicit mandate to take a mid-conviction (57.5%) binary; it will expire or fill without agent awareness.

watcher.wakeError='401 Invalid authentication credentials', armed=false, pidAlive=false — matches fleet-wide auth collapse pattern across 10+ agents. The watcher script calls `claude -p "wake"` when a condition fires; that call returned 401 and killed or failed to arm the process post-w31. wakes_fai

Sound through w31 — correctly identified sAAPL horizon expiry, cancelled stale exit swap #1598, and posted a BTC Jun15 binary within Polymarket edge discipline (p=57.5% vs $9.99/$7.38 ask). The prior repeat-wake pattern (21/31 wakes repeating) was churn on the sAAPL hold, but the final pivot was on-mission. Now moot: the agent is broken and cannot act.

Intent#1609 resolves (fill or expire) — polls snapshot.myOpenIntents for intentId 1609

New takeable bet with edge ≥8pp appears on scan-book output

MISSING: none structurally — but the watcher process is dead so none of these can fire

targets near-decided binaries (>85% or <15% implied); BTC Jun15 at 57.5% is mid-conviction, outside its take threshold

takes 'clearly mispriced' binaries — would need to independently assess BTC $64k as mispriced vs its oracle; no explicit Polymarket comparis

accepts 'winnable open bets re-priced to live oracle' — could see #1609 as a BTC-above bet if BTC oracle is above $64k; mandate is loose eno

wants BTC down; #1609 is BTC above $64k — wrong direction

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book since w31 (pidAlive=false); additionally, fleet-wide 401 means even if watcher polled successfully, the wake call would fail. The BTC Jun15 #1609 intent is itself stranded — no counterparty has yet taken the other side since posting at w31 (~34 min ago).

Intent#1609 resolution check (snapshot.myOpenIntents polling) is the right primary trigger — fires on fill OR expiry, exactly what the agent needs to act

scan-book poll for edge ≥8pp takeable bets is on-mission and matches the 8pp threshold used in w31 decision

Jun15 16:00 UTC hardstop matches the binary market expiry — correct and specific

60s poll cadence is appropriate for a live binary with ~26h to expiry

Error handling in catch block logs and continues rather than dying on transient network errors

The watcher process is dead (pidAlive=false) — good design doesn't matter if it never runs; the 401 killed the re-arming step after w31

No auth-failure self-rescue: when `claude -p "wake"` returns 401, the catch block logs and continues polling indefinitely without escalating or notifying

Add a consecutive-401-failure counter in the poll loop: after N failed `claude -p "wake"` calls with auth errors, write a sentinel file (e.g. data/watcher_auth_failed.json) and exit — this makes the dead-watcher state detectable by external

Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse kills all watcher re-arming

polymarket-ljuba's watcher death is the same 401 hitting 10+ agents. Armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakeError='401 Invalid authentication credentials' — identical signature fleet-wide. This is not agent-specific.

Restore fleet auth credentials; this is the single unlock for all 10+ stuck agents including polymarket-ljuba.

Intent#1609 (BTC Jun15, ~26.5h left) will expire or fill without agent awareness

Watcher is dead, so the agent cannot respond to: (a) a fill by a counterparty, (b) the Jun15 expiry and potential payout, or (c) new takeable bets that emerge while it's blind. $9.99 is at risk of expiring without position management.

Once auth is restored, manually re-arm the watcher or trigger a wake so the agent can reconcile #1609's state and re-post the watcher if still open.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: Auth state unchanged since last run — w46 (Jun 14 12:57 UTC, 34 min ago) is still the last wake; wakes_failing=true, 401 persists. The sMSFT approval that slipped through w46 was a one-time on-chain tool call that executed before or outside the LLM auth gate; no LLM reasoning has run since w45 (Jun 10 23:41 UTC). Watcher is correctly armed for Monday 2026-06

401 auth failure persists (wakes_failing=true, unchanged this cycle); watcher is ALIVE and correctly armed for Monday market open. However, LP-Maker-Matheus — counterparty for 4/7 recent fills — has been down 73h with no recovery signal, leaving 0 reliable counterparties for the Monday sMSFT trim → BTC DCA plan even if auth resolves.

wakes_failing=true, wake_error='401 Invalid authentication credentials', identical to last run summary; no auth state change this cycle; same error observed fleet-wide across 10+ agents per Step-1

Sound — w46 reasoning (approve sMSFT max to clear the Monday blocker while capital is idle) was correct and on-mission. The staged plan (sMSFT trim +1.64pp → proceeds → BTC DCA -1.62pp) is logical DCA sequencing. Problem: no LLM has run since w46 at 12:57 UTC; the reasoning layer is dark. Agent is solving the right problem but cannot act until auth recovers.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z — US market open poll every 5 min

Fallback: 2026-06-16T14:00:00Z (~2909 min, confirmed via nextFallbackMin)

Primary counterparty for 4 of 7 visible recent deals and the fleet's only deep swap liquidity hub; has been down 73h+ (pidAlive=false, 401 s

DOWN — 73h+ outage, no recovery signal t

1 historical deal with rebalancer; takes opportunistic swaps when sufficiently mispriced vs oracle

STUCK — health=stuck, likely 401 fleet-w

1 historical deal; takes delivered swaps when rotating into a position — BTC DCA direction could align

39 fleet deals, opportunistic swap taker; no prior deal with rebalancer but could fill if premium is attractive

none — agent correctly waiting for Monday US market open; sMSFT is non-tradeable outside market hours; BTC DCA slice depends on sMSFT trim proceeds not yet available; no stock-market intents on book in w46-present window

Triggers exactly on US market open (2026-06-16T13:30Z) — correct discrete event for a stock-trim-then-DCA mission

5-min poll cadence: lightweight and appropriate for a patient DCA agent waiting on a known future timestamp

Hard fallback at 14:00 UTC Monday computed correctly (FALLBACK_MS = max(target - now, 5min)); zero-LLM poll loop

Label is explicit ('trim sMSFT +1.64pp, DCA BTC -1.62pp') — intent is auditable without reading source

No counterparty health check before firing — watcher will wake on Monday even if LP-Maker and all swap takers remain down; risks posting a swap intent into a de

Before calling fireWake, check whether any swap-capable counterparty has been active in the last N hours (e.g., read a shared fleet-health file or check open intents count); if zero viable takers, log a warning and defer rather than posting

Fleet-wide 401 auth failure blocks LLM reasoning — rebalancer-lior confirmed broken this cycle

wakes_failing=true, 401 error unchanged from last run; affects 10+ agents fleet-wide. The sMSFT on-chain approval (w46) appears to have executed as a toolchain side-effect before/outside the LLM gate — but no reasoning has run since w45 (Jun 10 23:41 UTC, ~83h ago).

Rotate or reissue the Anthropic API key fleet-wide; validate auth before any agent restarts; do not treat the w46 on-chain call as evidence of a functional LLM loop

LP-Maker-Matheus down 73h — Monday sMSFT→BTC swap plan has no liquid taker

LP-Maker handled 4 of 7 visible rebalancer-lior fills (the dominant counterparty). It is pidAlive=false, 401-broken since ~06-11T11:53. If not restored before Monday open, the sMSFT trim → BTC DCA plan has no reliable taker; Arb-Hunter and Vulture are marginal alternates but also stuck.

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus before 2026-06-16T13:30 UTC; it is the fleet's swap liquidity hub and its absence strands the DCA plan for rebalancer-lior and multiple other agents

Stacker-Massimo

Taker-led tech-equity accumulator: take resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle, 24/7, ~10 USDC lots; post own bid at oracle+0.5% only when nothing is takeable. Accumulate until 100 USDC deployed; never sell.

Summary: AUTH BROKEN since w34 (06-14T00:00, now 811 min / ~13.5h): every wake fails 401, no on-chain action since w34. Critical change vs last summary: intent 1599 (10 USDC → 0.04852 sNVDA, 6.5h expiry posted at midnight) is almost certainly EXPIRED ~7h ago (390 min expiry vs 811 min elapsed) — Step-1's '357 min left' reflects an earlier snapshot and is stale. Both

Watcher is ALIVE (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=13) but every wake fails 401 since w34. Intent 1599 is almost certainly expired (~7h past its 6.5h window). With LP-Maker-Matheus down 73h+ — the source of both sNVDA accumulation deals (140, 141) — there is no active fill counterparty for any new sNVDA bid, even after auth is restored.

wakes_failing=true every wake since w34 (06-14T00:00); wake_error='401 Invalid authentication credentials'; fleet-wide collapse confirmed Step-1 (10+ agents); not stacker-specific

Last good reasoning (w34) was sound: no takeable sNVDA ask → post bid at oracle×1.005 ($206.13). Auth failure is a platform fault; trading analysis is moot until auth restores. No reasoning quality issue detected.

intent 1599 filled or expired (ownIntentResolved)

oracle sNVDA drifts >0.5% from $205.10 (bid-post baseline)

new takeable sNVDA sell intent ≤12 USDC appears on book

45-min fallback (FALLBACK_MS = 45 * 60_000)

Primary counterparty — both sNVDA deals (140, 141) settled ↔ LP-Maker; quotes near-oracle sNVDA swaps from deep inventory

DOWN — pidAlive=false, 401 since ~06-11T

Settled 1 swap with stacker historically; 70/30 portfolio includes tech equities but currently active on ETH options (#1600), not sNVDA sell

posting ETH CALL #1600 this cycle; sNVDA

Could sell sNVDA if overweight vs target; DCA-style swaps could cross stacker's bid

Unmeasurable: watcher cannot read book due to 401 auth failure on every wake. Structurally, with LP-Maker-Matheus down 73h+, sNVDA sell-side is likely absent regardless — no new sNVDA fills observed fleet-wide since 06-11.

ownIntentResolved fires on 1599 expiry — first successful wake after auth fix will immediately detect the expired bid and trigger re-evaluation + fresh post

Oracle drift >0.5% from bid-post baseline ensures stale bid gets refreshed after price moves

isTakeableSnvdaSell correctly gates on cost ≤12 USDC AND implied price ≤ oracle×1.01 — matches mission's ≤1% ceiling and lot cap

45-min fallback appropriate for a patient accumulator; not over-polling

ORACLE_BASE hardcoded to $205.10 (bid-post time); after 1599 expires and a fresh bid is posted at a new oracle price, the script will be regenerated — but if au

No sAAPL/sMSFT coverage in wake triggers despite mission naming all three equities — watcher is sNVDA-only

No watcher changes needed before auth fix — the ownIntentResolved trigger will self-heal on first successful wake. After auth restores, consider adding sAAPL/sMSFT sell-side triggers to align with the full mission scope.

Fleet-wide 401 auth failure blocking stacker since w34 (811 min / ~13.5h)

Every wake since 06-14T00:00 fails: 'Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials'. Shared with 10+ agents (Step-1 confirmed). Stacker has zero on-chain activity for 811 min despite watcher firing on 45-min cadence.

Restore valid API credentials fleet-wide. Stacker self-recovers on first successful wake: watcher will detect intent 1599 expired, trigger a wake, and post a fresh sNVDA bid.

LP-Maker-Matheus down 73h+ — sNVDA sell-side structurally absent post-auth-fix

2 of stacker's 5 lifetime deals (140, 141) were ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus. LP-Maker is the hub counterparty for sNVDA swaps (113 lifetime deals); its absence eliminates the most reliable sNVDA sell-side. Even with auth restored, stacker's bid will sit unfilled until LP-Maker or another sNVDA seller returns

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus. Alternatively, any agent holding sNVDA inventory (rebalancer-lior if overweight) could fill stacker's bid — but rebalancer is also auth-broken.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: Broken since w34 (06-14T12:56 UTC, 35 min ago) with fleet-wide 401 — same auth collapse hitting every agent, NOT a fresh failure specific to this agent. The 3-day gap (w33 06-11T07:19 → w34 06-14T12:56) was a prior 'Sonnet rate-limit outage' that emptied the price-history window; the wake script correctly switched to 60-min warmup mode to rebuild the 3-sampl

Fleet-wide 401 at w34 (35 min ago); 3-day prior absence was a separate Sonnet rate-limit outage that emptied price history. Auth fix is necessary but not sufficient: 2 warmup wakes still needed for baseline, structural constraints persist, and LP-Maker (sole counterparty) is down — 0 reliable swap counterparties available.

401 at w34 matches fleet-wide auth collapse; prior 3-day gap w33→w34 was a distinct 'Sonnet rate-limit outage' (per wake-script comment); watcher armed=true/pidAlive=true but every LLM call fails; 5 settled deals all pre-collapse, 2 confirmed vs LP-Maker-Matheus (now pidAlive=false 73h+)

Sound in mission but solving a temporarily moot problem. The warmup logic (switch to 60-min cadence after price-history was wiped) is correct and self-aware. However, the LLM pass at w34 cannot complete at all due to 401, so the warmup sample was not collected — the warmup clock has not actually advanced.

60-min interval timer (WARMUP_FIRE_MS) — collect next price sample

MISSING: no trigger for 'auth restored' — agent will spin through warmup wakes that all fail until auth is fixed externally

Sole confirmed counterparty; 2 of 5 settled deals were swaps vs LP-Maker

Swap-capable taker; opposite directional logic could cross with swing's fade entries

Momentum vs mean-reversion creates natural cross; both use delivered swaps

sNVDA/sAAPL accumulator could cross swing's sell-stretch signals

Unmeasurable — agent cannot complete an analytical pass (401 blocks LLM call before any book scan); additionally the price-history baseline is incomplete (1/3 samples) so even a working agent couldn't post intents this wake.

Correctly identifies the 3-day price-history gap and switches to fast 60-min warmup cadence rather than attempting full deviation analysis with insufficient dat

Explicit comment documenting the outage cause, sample count (1/3), and intent — readable and auditable

2h hard fallback is appropriate for the warmup phase (not sub-minute, not excessively long)

Zero-LLM watcher: armWatcher + runWatchLoop + fireWake is purely time-based, correct for this phase

Auth failure at w34 means the warmup sample was NOT collected — the script will rearm and fire again in ~87 min into the same 401 wall; the warmup counter has n

No script change needed until auth is restored — the warmup logic is sound. Post-auth-fix: verify the price-history file actually has 1 sample (w34 partial write may be absent) before counting toward the 3-sample baseline.

Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse — all LLM calls failing

Same 'Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials' hitting swing-nikita at w34, matching fleet-wide collapse across 10+ agents. Watcher stays armed and rearms correctly, but every actual agent execution fails before any analytical work occurs.

Restore API auth credentials at the platform level; this is not agent-specific and cannot be fixed per-agent.

Price-history baseline wiped by 3-day outage — warmup not progressing

The prior Sonnet rate-limit outage (w33 06-11T07:19 → w34 06-14T12:56, ~3d 5h gap) emptied the price-history window. Agent needs 3 successful wakes to reestablish baseline. w34 failed (401), so the counter has not advanced past 1/3. With nextFallbackMin=87, the next attempt will still hit 401 unless

After auth fix: let 2 warmup wakes succeed (they will run ~60 min apart). Confirm price-history file has valid data from w34 before counting it — the w34 LLM call failed, so the sample append may not have occurred.

LP-Maker-Matheus down 73h — sole confirmed swap counterparty gone

2 of swing-nikita's 5 settled deals were vs LP-Maker-Matheus. With LP-Maker pidAlive=false and all other swap-capable peers (rebalancer-lior, momentum-nikita, stacker-massimo) also 401-broken, swing-nikita has 0 reliable counterparties. Auth restoration + warmup completion will produce a working age

LP-Maker-Matheus recovery is the highest-leverage fleet move. Until then, swing-nikita's structural deal path does not exist regardless of its own health.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

0 takeable edges. 1624 SSV sell (1.74%) uncompetitive vs rival at 1.31% but cancel gas-negative (~$1.44 cost vs ~$0.025

17 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781445734; next poll 71s

Summary: Vulture caught a brief auth-recovery window on 06-14: w111 (13:25 UTC) completed a full repost of 9 intents after the 73h gap; w112 (13:39 UTC) found no new edges and correctly deferred. Auth has since re-collapsed — every wake after w112 hits 401. The 9 freshly posted intents (SSV/BTC/sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL) are live on book but have zero live takers: LP-Maker-M

Vulture executed cleanly during the brief recovery window (w111-w112), re-posting all 9 intents, but is back to 401-failing. All 9 intents are stranded with reliableCounterparties=0: LP-Maker offline 73h+, every other buyer also broken. 39 lifetime deals but $0.56 realized PnL vs $80.67 lifetime token spend — a ratio issue to address once auth recovers.

401 on all wakes after w112 (06-14T13:39); LP-Maker-Matheus offline 73h+ (4 of last 5 Vulture deals); Momentum-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo all also 401-broken — zero live counterparties for any of the 9 posted intents

Sound where it ran: w111 correctly identified full-repost need, posted 9 intents efficiently across blocks 3015186-3015228; w112 correctly deferred all cancels as gas-negative ($1.44 cost vs $0.025 benefit). The reasoning problem is moot — auth blocks further execution entirely.

new takeable edge ≥1% (excluding honeypots 779/836/869)

quote erosion or undercut (check-my-quotes cancelCmds > 0)

hard fallback ~2h (currently 36 min remaining)

4 of last 5 deals; primary liquidity hub for Vulture's swap asks

1 recent swap deal; directional rotations could match Vulture's baited crypto intents

DCA swap slices could fill Vulture's posted stock/crypto asks if within 1% floor

Takes sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle — direct match for Vulture's posted equity intents

Takes options only; Vulture's 9 open intents are swaps/binaries/equity

Option-Writer posted ETH CALL #1600 (strike $1,682, ~30 min left at Step-1 time) — Vulture's mission includes near-decided options, but (a) Vulture was also 401-broken at that window and (b) scan-edges may not score option moneyness. Unmeasurable whether this was an in-scope missed edge or out-of-mission; worth clarifying in CLAUDE.md.

Zero-LLM polling via scan-edges — fires on real book signals without token burn between wakes

Pre-seeded honeypot blocklist (IDs 779, 836, 869) prevents re-triggering on confirmed traps

Three independent fire conditions (edge, pre-expiry, quote erosion) all directly relevant to Vulture's dual taker+maker role

30s poll cadence appropriate for an opportunistic edge-scanner; 2h fallback reasonable for a patient vulture

No explicit trigger for near-decided option intents on the book — if scan-edges doesn't score option moneyness, Vulture can't fire on Option-Writer's posted cal

seenEdgeIds set resets on each watcher restart — after a 73h gap like w110→w111, all previously-refused edges re-evaluate from scratch (including any new honeyp

Verify scan-edges returns near-decided option intents scored by moneyness/time-to-expiry; if not, add an option near-ITM check so the watcher fires when Option-Writer posts cheap calls near expiry — that's the exact edge Vulture's mission i

Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse (10+ agents)

Every claude binary launch fails with 401 Invalid authentication credentials. Vulture is collateral damage — watcher is healthy and armed, but claude dies on each fire. Shared cause with bear-yosher, lp-maker-matheus, mimic-ljuba, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massi

Rotate/refresh Anthropic API key in shared env secret store; verify propagation to all agent containers; confirm auth before re-arming fleet.

Primary counterparty concentration: LP-Maker is 4/5 recent deals

39 lifetime deals, but 4 of the last 5 were LP-Maker-Matheus. Its 73h outage has completely frozen Vulture's fill rate. No secondary liquidity source is confirmed to fill Vulture's posted intents.

After auth restores, verify Vulture's intent pricing falls within Stacker-Massimo's and Rebalancer-Lior's stated take ranges; if so, no change needed — if not, tighten posted spread to attract them.

Token-to-PnL ratio: $80.67 spent vs $0.56 realized

83 of 116 wakes are repeat 'no edges' passes at ~$0.17/wake. That's ~$14 in pure scan cost with no action. 39 deals at $0.56 realized PnL is ~$0.014/deal — well below break-even on token cost.

Audit whether raising EDGE_MIN_PCT from 1% to 1.5-2% reduces false-positive scans without cutting genuine edges; also review whether 'no edges' wakes are being triggered by pre-expiry on near-worthless intents that should be cancelled proactively.

AUTH COLLAPSE — FLEET FROZEN

dominant — 14 of 16 visible recent deals

2 of 16 visible recent deals (option fill + external binary)

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, Arb-Hunter-Tom}

HUB REBUILT / TAKERS GONE: w127 reposted 12/12 quotes ($746.76 total) but every

EXPIRING UNMANNED: #1600 ETH CALL (strike $1,682.15, $0.54 premium) ~16 min left

UNMANAGED: #1609 (give $9.99/want $7.38) 1576 min left; watcher fully dead (arme

EXPIRING: #1616 (BTC >$64,302) ~27 min left at data; w93 output '[object Object]

STRANDED: #1599 posted with 390-min expiry at w34 (811 min ago) — almost certain

Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse — platform regression, not per-agent

12 of 14 active agents cannot execute LLM wakes; 0 new deals formed fleet-wide since collapse; reliableCounterparties=0

Identical error string 'wakes_failing=true / wake_error=401 Invalid authentication credentials' confirmed on: arb-hunter-tom, bear-yosher, lp-maker-matheus, mimic-ljuba, momentum-nikita, option-taker-

Vulture-Andrew (39 deals), Rebalancer-Lior (15 deals), Arb-Hunter-Tom (17 deals) starved — LP-Maker-Matheus is counterpa

All recent Swap settled deals trace through LP-Maker-Matheus; 0 new settled deals since pre-crash baseline; last settled deal confirmed pre-06-11T11:53

LP-Maker-Matheus w127 recovery posted 12 quotes ($746.76) but all takers remain 401-broken

Book is live again — 12 intents on open book (20-24 min left at data) — but no taker can fill; quotes expire with zero c

Vulture-Andrew armed=true/pidAlive=false, Rebalancer-Lior wakes_failing=true, Arb-Hunter-Tom wakes_failing=true, Momentum-Nikita wakes_failing=true — all primary takers offline simultaneously

Option-Taker-Matheus 401-broken since w30 (06-14T10:48, 161 min before data)

ETH CALL #1600 (strike $1,682.15, $0.54 premium) expired unmanned; natural fill window lost

Option-Writer w116 squeezed through pre-collapse (06-14T12:58, $0.73 LLM burn confirmed); #1600 ~16 min left at data; Option-Taker wakes_failing=true with process alive but LLM unreachable

401 killed Polymarket-Ljuba's watcher process entirely post-w31 (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

BTC Jun15 binary #1609 fully unmanaged — no exit logic, no position sizing, no stop-loss for 1576+ min

Uniquely bad failure mode vs rest of fleet: other agents lost LLM access but kept watcher process alive (armed=true); Polymarket-Ljuba lost the process itself (nextFallbackMin=null)

Platform 401 collapse — 12 agents down, single root cause

12 of 14 active agents report identical wakes_failing=true / wake_error='401 Invalid authentication credentials'. This is one platform regression, not 12 separate failures. Three brief windows squeezed through (Option-Writer w116, Bear-Yosher w42-43, Vulture w111-112) before re-collapse — pattern matches intermittent token expiry/rotation, not permanent revocation. 0 new deals formed fleet-wide since collapse.

Identical error string across arb-hunter-tom, bear-yosher, lp-maker-matheus, mimic-ljuba, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, polymarket-ljuba, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, vulture-andrew

Rotate or refresh the Anthropic API key/auth token used by the claude binary fleet-wide; confirm whether brief windows correlate with token TTL resets; fix before anything else — all trading analysis is moot until wakes run

Polymarket-Ljuba fully disarmed — #1609 unmanaged, unique worst-case

Unlike every other agent that kept the watcher process alive despite 401, Polymarket-Ljuba lost the process entirely (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). BTC Jun15 binary #1609 (give $9.99/want $7.38, p≈57.5%) has 1576 min left with zero management — no exit, no adjustment, no stop-loss. This requires a manual restart on auth restore.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; last wake w31 (Jun14 ~15:07 UTC); #1609 confirmed live on open book

On auth restore: immediately manually restart Polymarket-Ljuba watcher; audit why the 401 killed the process (vs keeping armed=true like other agents) and add try/catch in watcher launch path to prevent process death on auth error

LP-Maker-Matheus single point of failure — hub rebuilt but isolated

LP-Maker-Matheus appears in 9 of 11 recent visible settled deals (Vulture 39 deals, Rebalancer 15, Arb-Hunter 17 — all primarily hub pairings). Hub recovered at w127 and rebuilt 12/12 quotes ($746.76) but all named takers are 401-broken. When auth restores, this hub is the fleet's only reliable liquidity source — and it is still wakes_failing (poll loop hits 401 with no try/catch, so new quote refresh is blocked).

12 LP-Maker-Matheus intents live on book (20-24 min left at data); every named taker offline; wakes_failing=true on LP-Maker-Matheus itself

Short-term: fix auth so takers can fill live book; medium-term: add try/catch to LP-Maker-Matheus watcher poll loop so 401 doesn't block quote refresh; long-term: add a second maker to eliminate single-hub dependence

ETH CALL #1600 expired unmanned

Option-Writer w116 (06-14T12:58) posted #1600 (ETH CALL, strike $1,682.15, $0.54 premium) before auth collapsed. Option-Taker evaluated it at w30 and rejected on edge grounds ('coin-flip at fair premium, strike too tight') — a reasonable pre-collapse call, not a miss. With ~16 min left at data capture, #1600 almost certainly expired with no fill. No ongoing loss, but the option pair is functionally offline.

Option-Taker wakes_failing=true since w30 (161 min); #1600 in open book 16 min left at data capture; Option-Writer wakes_failing post-w116

On auth restore: Option-Taker should wake immediately to catch any live options; consider shorter option TTL if taker auth coverage is unreliable

Mimic-Ljuba serialization bug masking wake reasoning

w93 (06-14T13:11) output is '[object Object]' — a JS serialization bug in the wake script drops the LLM's reasoning text. Cannot verify whether BTC >$64,302 binary intent #1616 (~27 min left at data) was posted with sound logic or misconfigured parameters. Portfolio jumped $63.62→$76.95, possibly reflecting collateral lock on posted intent. Separate from 401 collapse — this is an agent-code bug.

wake_output='[object Object]'; wakes_failing=true; $13.33 portfolio jump; #1616 live on open book

Fix mimic-ljuba wake script: serialize the tool-call response object before logging (e.g. JSON.stringify(result) or access the .text / .content property)

index-maker and index-taker never provisioned — 30+ cycles uninitialized

Both agents have address=null / wake_script_source=null / 0 lifetime wakes. This is not an auth issue — they never ran. IndexBasket market segment fully offline and generating no deal flow. Separate workstream from auth recovery.

index-maker: address=null, armed=false, 0 tokens lifetime; index-taker: same; neither appears in any settled deal

Provision wallets and deploy wake scripts for index-maker and index-taker as a dedicated workstream; do not block on auth fix

URGENT — Resolve 401 auth collapse: rotate/refresh Anthropic API key or auth token used by the claude binary fleet-wide; brief recovery windows (w116 13:01, w42-43 12:57-13:17, w111-112 13:25-13:39) suggest intermittent token expiry rather than permanent revocation; confirm TTL p

Harden watcher launch path against auth errors: add try/catch so a 401 on the claude binary call keeps the watcher process alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true) rather than killing it — Polymarket-Ljuba losing armed=false/pidAlive=false is the worst failure mode and distinguishes it

On auth restore, manually restart Polymarket-Ljuba watcher first — it is the only fully disarmed agent (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null); #1609 has 1576 min left but is completely unmanaged

Diversify LP counterparty: LP-Maker-Matheus is in 9/11 recent visible deals; its 73h outage collapsed the entire deal funnel; promote Swing-Nikita or Stacker-Massimo to dual-side liquidity, or deploy a second maker, so a single hub outage cannot freeze the network

Provision index-maker and index-taker (wallets + wake scripts) as a separate workstream — IndexBasket market offline 30+ cycles; does not depend on auth fix

No improvement from last run's FLEET AUTH COLLAPSE — 401 auth errors remain fleet-wide across 10+ agents; sole anomaly is Option-Writer-Matheus apparently executing w116 at 06-14T12:58 despite the collapse, posting ETH CALL intent #1600 now live on book with ~30 min left.

401 auth failure unresolved fleet-wide — at least 10 agents (bear-yosher, lp-maker-matheus, mimic-ljuba, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, vulture-

LP-Maker-Matheus hub down 73h+ (pidAlive=false, 401, last alive w126 ~06-11T11:53 UTC), 12 intents stranded on book; every recent deal in the funnel traced through it — its absence collapses the netwo

Option-Writer posted ETH CALL #1600 (strike $1,682, $0.54 premium, ~30 min left) but Option-Taker is 401-broken since w30 (161 min ago) — natural fill window expiring unmanned

Polymarket-Ljuba watcher fully disarmed (armed=false, pidAlive=false) after w31; BTC Jun15 binary #1609 (give $9.99/want $7.38) is live with 1590 min left but no agent managing it

Funnel: 1623 posted, 151 settled (9.3% conversion), 27 open — recent deal flow entirely LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ {Vulture, Rebalancer, Arb-Hunter} pairs, all pre-crash; no new clears observed this cycle

w218 ran 06-14T12:57 (32 min ago) and prior summary flags wakes_failing — did this wake actually succeed (heartbeat found no edge) or fail with 401, and is wakes_failing still true this cycle?

401 explicit since w41 (Jun 10, 5871 min ago), 17 deals frozen; watcher armed with 287-min fallback — has anything changed in auth state this cycle, or is this another null 401 fire?

29th consecutive null cycle, never provisioned — is there any wallet assignment, provisioning signal, or config change this cycle, or another null?

29th consecutive null cycle alongside index-maker — any initialization or provisioning signal this cycle, or another null?

pidAlive=false but armed=true with 64-min fallback — is the watcher still attempting retries and hitting 401, and do any of the 12 stranded book intents have a viable taker right now (e.g., Vulture-Andrew's posted intents vs LP's resting as

wakes_failing 401 since w92 (788 min ago); open custom intent (Deposit A 6 USDC / Deposit B 7.33 USDC, ~41 min left) is expiring — is any agent positioned to take it, and has the unexplained portfolio jump $63.62→$76.95 at w92 been traced?

wakes_failing 401 confirmed at w31 (32 min ago); prior wake correctly held on SSV gap 0.40pp < 2pp edge — is the 401 fresh from this cycle or carrying from prior, and is the watcher (armed=true, 515-min fallback) still live?

Option-Writer just posted ETH CALL #1600 (strike $1,682, $0.54 premium, ~30 min left on book) — is Option-Taker still 401-blocked (wakes_failing since w30, 161 min ago, 94-min fallback), meaning this natural fill will expire unmanned?

Prior summary says w116 (06-14T12:58) posted ETH CALL #1600 despite fleet-wide auth collapse — did this wake actually succeed without a 401 (burn_5h $0.73 suggests real LLM calls), and is option-writer running a different or still-valid API

Watcher died after w31 (armed=false, pidAlive=false); BTC Jun15 binary #1609 is live 1590 min — what caused the watcher death (was it a 401 or clean exit after posting), and does any active agent have the mandate or ability to take or manag

wakes_failing 401 at w46; on-chain sMSFT approval slipped through but LLM reasoning broken — has auth state changed this cycle, and given LP-Maker (counterparty for all 15 prior deals) is also down 73h, does any viable counterparty exist fo

AUTH BROKEN 788 min (~13h), watcher firing on 15-min fallback; intent 1599 (10 USDC → 0.04852 sNVDA, 357 min left) is live on book — LP-Maker was the only prior counterparty (deals 140, 141) and is down; is there any active taker for this s

401 wakes_failing since w34 (33 min ago); is this the same 401 persisting from the fleet collapse, or did a fresh failure event occur at w34 specifically — and given LP-Maker is down, would auth restoration even produce deals given the stru

Last wake 4 min ago (pidAlive=false, armed=true, 38-min fallback, 401 on wakes); 9 open intents on book across SSV/BTC/sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL — are any of these intents being taken by other agents (e.g., LP-Maker's stranded asks vs Vulture's pos

Rotate/refresh API credentials fleet-wide immediately — 401 is the sole blocker on 10+ agents; identify which Anthropic API key(s) are invalid/revoked and rekey; Option-Writer-Matheus may still have a

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus once auth is restored — it is the network hub (counterparty in every recent deal: Vulture, Rebalancer, Arb-Hunter, 0xBd6a all routed through it); 73h down, 12 stranded intents

Restart Polymarket-Ljuba watcher (armed=false/pidAlive=false since w31) — BTC Jun15 binary #1609 is live 1590 min with no agent managing it

ETH CALL #1600 (Option-Writer, strike $1,682, $0.54 premium) expires in ~30 min and Option-Taker is 401-blocked — manually take or extend the window; otherwise the only active option on the book expir

Audit why Option-Writer-Matheus executed w116 successfully (burn_5h $0.73, fresh intent on book) while 10+ agents fail 401 — if it uses a separate still-valid key, replicate that key or rotation patte