Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary clears latency bar (margin 0.008% << 0.5%); no swap edge (oracle lags CEX but all swap intents require taker t

new intent >#1091, OR binary bet ≤30-min settlement w/ CEX taker decided, OR 30-min fallback

Summary: 11 settled deals / 169 wakes; last fill was w164 SSV swap +11bps (deal 114) — now 6 consecutive waits (w165–w170). Binary surface fully dry: 0 binary bets on book in every recent wake, confirmed by Bear-Yosher crash 392 min ago (primary binary poster). Swap surface blocked by oracle-above-CEX inversion (give-USDC edges require oracle < CEX). Both primary sur

Binary arb feed has dried up exactly as predicted: Bear-Yosher offline → 0 binary bets posted → 0 near-decided targets anywhere on book (w167, w169, w170 all confirm). Simultaneously, oracle > CEX is blocking swap edges. With 0/11 lifetime fills from binary bets (all 11 fills are swaps via LP-Maker-Matheus), the primary mission surface has never fired. Agent is correctly waiting; the dead hand is Bear-Yosher's crash, not arb-hunter's logic.

Binary: Bear-Yosher crashed 392 min ago — sole meaningful binary poster; w167/w169/w170 confirm 0 binary bets on book. Swap: w166 'oracle above CEX (currently reversed)', w168/w169 same — give-USDC edges require oracle < CEX. Both surfaces blocked independently. All 11 settled deals are swaps ↔ LP-M

Sound execution, solving the right problem — correctly identifies CEX/oracle inversion blocking swap edges and absence of near-decided binary bets each wake. HIGH_WATER advancement (1052→1088) confirms it's tracking the book. However: the primary mission (binary latency arb) has never produced a single fill in 170 wakes — the strategy is disciplined but the surface it was built for hasn't existed

New intent ID > HIGH_WATER (1088) posted to book

Binary bet ≤30-min to settlement with cexTakerInMoney=true

MISSING: No oracle-direction signal — watcher fires on new swap intents even when oracle > CEX makes all give-USDC edges taker-negative, producing guaranteed wa

9 of 11 settled deals; LP has 11 open intents live right now — sole active swap counterparty

Primary binary bet poster — near-decided bets are arb-hunter's core mission; but crashed 392 min ago, 0 bets on book

Mirrors binary bets and posts new ones — could be secondary binary supply source; 0 direct deals to date

Also posts baited/sharp intents arb-hunter could snipe; but crashed 193 min ago

LP has 11 open intents live — arb-hunter cannot take them because oracle > CEX inverts give-USDC swap edges (w166, w168, w169). These are not missed opportunities by agent error; the edge doesn't exist at current oracle alignment. Binary surface: no bets posted to miss.

HIGH_WATER baseline prevents re-firing on stale intents across wakes — correctly advances each run

Binary trigger checks both near-expiry (≤1800s) AND cexTakerInMoney before firing — avoids false wakes on undecided bets

mSSV-sell pre-filter compares implied price vs CEX before firing wake — reduces taker-negative false alarms

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a latency-arb agent (not polling sub-minute)

No oracle-direction guard: when oracle > CEX (current state), all new swap intents above HIGH_WATER will produce wait wakes — watcher fires anyway, burning $0.5

No signal on Bear-Yosher restart: when Bear comes back online and posts new binary bets, arb-hunter will catch them via HIGH_WATER — but there's no faster trigg

Add a lightweight oracle-vs-CEX direction check at the top of the watch loop: if oracle > CEX, skip firing on new swap intents (still fire on binary bets). This would collapse the repeat_wakes=156/169 (92%) pattern when the oracle is invert

Binary arb surface dead until Bear-Yosher restarts

arb-hunter's primary mission depends on near-decided binary bets; Bear-Yosher is sole meaningful poster (17 deals, now 392 min offline). 0 binary bets on book confirmed w167/w169/w170. 0/170 wakes have ever produced a binary fill.

Restart Bear-Yosher — this restores both the binary arb surface for arb-hunter and the Bear↔Mimic interplay. Until then, arb-hunter operates on its fallback-only swap surface.

Oracle-direction blind spot in watcher causes guaranteed-wait wakes

When oracle > CEX (current), all give-USDC swap edges are taker-negative. Watcher fires on new swap intents regardless, producing wait wakes at $0.58/wake. repeat_wakes=156/169 (92%) is the cost of this.

In runWatchLoop, fetch oracle and CEX spot at baseline; if oracle > CEX, suppress fireWake for swap intents (still fire for binary bets and fallback). Re-check direction each loop iteration.

Primary mission (binary latency arb) has 0 lifetime fills

170 wakes, 11 deals — all swaps via LP-Maker-Matheus. The binary arb strategy has never been exercised. This may reflect thin binary supply historically, not a logic bug, but it means the mission's primary edge is unvalidated on this chain.

When Bear restarts, instrument a specific log line when cexTakerInMoney=true fires (even if bet is unaffordable) to confirm the binary detection path is reachable — validate the path before the next fleet cycle.

Bear-Yosher

Exactly-one-resting invariant violated (836 expired). Posted 869 to maintain bear anchor. No BinaryBets available to tak

intent 869 fill/expiry OR new BinaryBet OR ETH/BTC +1.5% OR deal 75 near-expiry OR 4h

Summary: Confirmed crashed, 395 min dark. Prior summary: clean invariant maintenance through w38–w41 with 14→17 settled BinaryBets (all Mimic-Ljuba, -$0.36 PnL then). Since last summary: 3 more bets settled (now 17, PnL deteriorated to -$2.15, ~$1.79 swing — bets resolving against position as BTC held ~3.5% below strike). w40 already logged 'Watcher died (PID 6802 go

Last logged wake w41 at 06-10T11:17 UTC (395 min ago). Watcher process has died twice (w40 PID 6802, w41's successor). Intent 869 (bear anchor posted at w41) is now gone — 0 open intents, invariant violated. The w41 wake-script was sound; the process died before its 4h fallback at ~15:17 UTC. 10 pre-crash live Bear↔Mimic deals continue resolving; once done, zero new binary supply enters the fleet until Bear restarts.

w40 explicitly logged 'Watcher died (PID 6802 gone)'; w41 recovery set a new watcher with 4h fallback but that process also died (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no w42). This is the second consecutive watcher death — not a logic fault, a platform/process-supervision gap. 17 settled deals all with Mimi

Sound reasoning solving the right problem — but irrelevant while the process is dead. Through w41, the agent correctly maintained the exactly-one-resting-bet invariant, handled the w36–w37 concurrent-wake duplicate, and monitored Deal 75 betExpiry. The crash is platform fault, not logic fault. The $1.79 PnL deterioration since last summary (now -$2.15) reflects bet resolution unfavorable to the be

Intent 869 fill or expiry (no longer monitored — process dead)

ETH > $1,644.17 (+1.5% adverse) (not monitored)

BTC > $62,011.60 (+1.5% adverse) (not monitored)

Deal 75 near-expiry at 1781139624-300 = ~June 11 00:53 UTC (not monitored)

MISSING: 4h fallback (~15:17 UTC June 10) — should have fired, did not; process died before trigger

17/17 settled deals are Bear↔Mimic BinaryBets — the entire binary market is this pair. Mimic takes BELOW anchors nearly instantly (w36b: '79

Buys mispriced BinaryBets — could take Bear's BELOW anchors if priced right, but only 2 lifetime deals, rarely active.

Takes near-decided binaries — would take Bear's bets only when they're deep in-the-money near expiry, not fresh postings.

Unmeasurable while crashed — watcher is blind to the book. However: w41 logged 'No BinaryBets available to take' at last wake, so the immediate opportunity was zero. Any BinaryBets posted by other agents in the 395 min since w41 would be missed. Rebalancer-Lior's 4 USDC → ETH intent (58m left) is not in Bear's mission scope.

Fires on own intent resolution (fill or expiry) — correct for a maker maintaining exactly-one-resting invariant

Fires on new BinaryBet appearances using hash filter — mission-aligned taker trigger

Monitors ETH/BTC for +1.5% adverse move — matches the halt-on-persistent-climb mission clause

Deal 75 near-expiry anchor (5 min early) — proactive, prevents invariant gaps

4h fallback present; zero-LLM; cadence (~60s poll) appropriate for binary markets

The watcher process itself has no supervisor — when it dies (twice now: PID 6802 at w40, w41's successor before ~15:17 UTC), there is no auto-restart. The scrip

Add a platform-level process supervisor (systemd unit, PM2, or equivalent) that auto-restarts the watcher on exit — or expose a 'watcher heartbeat' endpoint the board can use to trigger a restart when pidAlive=false. The script itself is we

Watcher process dies with no auto-restart

Two consecutive watcher deaths (w40 PID 6802 gone; w41's successor dead before its 4h fallback at ~15:17 UTC). When the process exits, there is no supervisor to revive it. Bear has been dark 395 min. This same failure mode will affect any agent whose watcher process exits unexpectedly.

Implement a process supervisor (systemd, PM2, or a board-level watchdog) that detects pidAlive=false and auto-restarts the watcher. This is the single highest-leverage fix for the fleet — it unblocks Bear and prevents the same crash from silently halting other agents.

Bear anchor broken — 0 open intents on restart

Intent 869 is gone (0 open intents). On restart, the agent must immediately re-post the BELOW-strike BinaryBet anchor to restore the exactly-one-resting invariant before doing anything else.

On next wake, agent should detect open_intents=0, skip all other logic, and post anchor first. The w41 wake script already handles this (invariant check fires before taker logic) — just needs the process restarted.

Binary market supply at zero while Bear is down

Bear is the only active BinaryBet poster. With 10 pre-crash live deals resolving and no new postings, Mimic-Ljuba (the sole reliable counterparty, 17 deals) has nothing to take. Binary market will go dark completely once pre-crash inventory clears.

Restart Bear-Yosher immediately. Secondary: assess whether Polymarket-Ljuba or Arb-Hunter-Tom could post temporary BELOW anchors as a stop-gap (outside their current missions — fleet decision).

Index-Maker

Summary: 10th consecutive null cycle — state remains byte-for-byte identical: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, settled_deals=not-indexed. No delta whatsoever from run 1 through run 10. The agent has never executed a single wake. Given index-taker is in the same null state, the entire IndexBasket

Index-maker is not crashed — it was never started. wake_script_source=null means no watcher script exists at all; without a watcher there is no process to arm, no fallback to schedule, nothing to run. This is a pre-launch state, not a runtime failure. The paired index-taker is identically null, so the entire IndexBasket market segment is absent from the fleet.

wake_script_source=null across 10 consecutive cycles; watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; 0 wakes, $0 tokens, settled_deals=not-indexed; index-taker identically undeployed — no counterparty exists even if this agent launched

N/A — agent has never executed. No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no watcher script exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing can fire this agent

Designed to take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents this agent would post — natural and sole counterparty

Also never deployed (unknown health, sam

unmeasurable: agent has never run; no watcher exists to observe the book

No wake script exists at all — wake_script_source=null means the watcher file has never been written

No fallback configured (nextFallbackMin=null)

No process ever started (pidAlive=false, armed=false)

Write and deploy a watcher script: wake on a timed cadence (e.g. every 2-4 hours), check for an existing open basket intent on-chain, and if none exists post a new LONG IndexBasket (BTC+AAPL+NVDA) and publish the verified contract source to

Agent never deployed — no wake script, no process, no config

10 consecutive null cycles with byte-identical state. wake_script_source=null is the hard blocker: the watcher file does not exist, so the harness has nothing to arm. This is not a crash recovery — it is a first-time launch task.

Create current.ts for index-maker with a timed cadence watcher (no book dependency), configure wallet/env, and start the process. Simultaneously deploy index-taker — without both sides, the IndexBasket market cannot produce any settled deals regardless of how well the maker runs.

Entire IndexBasket market segment absent — both maker and taker undeployed

Index-maker and index-taker are both in null state (health=unknown, 0 wakes, $0 tokens). The IndexBasket template has 0 posted intents and 0 settled deals fleet-wide. This is not a thin market — it is a non-existent one.

Coordinate launch of both agents together; deploying only one side produces a maker with no taker or a taker with nothing to take.

Index-Taker

Summary: 10th consecutive null cycle — no change from cycle 9. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. This agent has never been deployed. Its only viable counterparty, index-maker, is also permanently dark (unknown health, 0 IndexBasket intents ever on-chain). The dependency chain is broken at both end

10 cycles, 0 wakes, $0 tokens, no wake script. Index-taker is not crashed — it was never started. Its sole dependency (index-maker posting LONG IndexBasket intents) has also never fired. No IndexBasket intents exist on-chain for it to audit or cross. Fleet health 'unknown' x2 is noise until someone manually deploys index-maker first.

wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, last_wake_min_ago=null, settled_deals=not-indexed, 0 lifetime tokens. index-maker also health='unknown', 0 IndexBasket intents observed on-chain across all 10 cycles.

No reasoning to evaluate — agent has never woken. Not a reasoning failure; a deployment failure. The mission design (fail-closed audit before crossing) is sound in principle, but it is unreachable until index-maker is live and posting LONG IndexBasket intents.

MISSING: no wake script deployed — agent cannot trigger at all

MISSING: no IndexBasket intents exist on-chain to trigger against even if deployed

Sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents index-taker is designed to audit and short

dark — health=unknown, 0 wakes, never de

Unmeasurable: watcher has no wake script and is therefore blind to the book. However, even with a working watcher, 0 IndexBasket intents have appeared on-chain in 10 cycles, so there was nothing to take.

No wake script exists at all — wake_script_source=null

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) means no recovery path even if it were partially deployed

Deploy index-maker first (it must post LONG IndexBasket intents); only then write and arm index-taker's wake script to poll the indexer for open IndexBasket intents and trigger the audit-custom-deal flow on each.

Never deployed — no wake script, never armed

10 cycles, wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false. The agent exists in the fleet roster but has never been started. Requires manual intervention to write its watcher and arm it.

Deploy index-maker first (its LONG IndexBasket intents are the only trigger for index-taker). Then write index-taker's wake script to poll the indexer for open IndexBasket intents, audit each per audit-custom-deal, and cross on ACCEPT. Arm both agents.

Two 'unknown' health agents polluting fleet metrics for 10 cycles

index-maker and index-taker have both been health='unknown' with 0 activity for 10 consecutive cycles. They are not crashed — they are undeployed. Fleet health metrics treat them identically to a crashed agent, which obscures the real health picture.

Either deploy both (index-maker → index-taker in sequence) or mark them as 'parked' / exclude from fleet health aggregation until a deployment decision is made. Remove the ambiguity of 'unknown' for something that has simply never run.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Full rebuild needed: all 10 prior bids and asks expired by 17:40 UTC (cluster from wake 72). Wide spreads from significa

quote expiry ~18:38UTC | price guards (ETH/BTC/SSV/stocks) | new fillable intent | 60min fallback

Summary: Fully recovered from the 931-min offline gap — active since before 06-10T14:45, now at w65-68, 86 settled deals, $83.36/5h. pidAlive=false is normal for this watcher: the Node watch-loop arms the deadline then exits; armed=true + nextFallbackMin=20 confirms the daemon is holding the alarm correctly. 10/12 quotes live (missing ETH ask and BTC ask — $0.25 and

LP-Maker is live and dominant (86 deals, 4 active counterparties, 10 open quotes) but recurring concurrent-session collisions (w67: full rebuild, 10 txns; w68: 4 cancelled intents) are wasting ~$2/event in gas and destabilizing the book. ETH/BTC ask absence is correctly managed (thin inventory), not a bug.

w67: 'Concurrent sessions mutually cancelled each other's work, requiring full book rebuild. 10 total txns this wake. Gas ~$2.' w68: '#1012 SSV bid #1013 sAAPL bid #1014 sMSFT bid disappeared (concurrent session cancelled)'. w65: 'Concurrent session spawned duplicates requiring...'. Counterparties a

Sound and on-mission. The agent correctly skips ETH/BTC asks at $0.25/$0.33 inventory (thin enough to be a free option risk), applies per-quote price guards, and rebuilds the book after expiry clusters. The concurrent-session churn is a platform-level race condition, not bad reasoning — the agent's response (rebuild and continue) is correct. One subtle issue: the SSV inversion guard fired at w65 m

Price inversion guard: per-quote thresholds for SSV/ETH/BTC/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT bids and asks

Expiry guard: fires 5 min before #1023 sMSFT ask (1781107440 epoch)

New fillable swap intent matching HOLD set

30-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=20 remaining)

Most frequent filler (7+ deals) — latency arb on oracle lag exactly consumes LP quotes

8+ deals — takes mispriced LP quotes as part of its mandate

health=ok, recently crashed but prior bu

5+ deals — DCA swaps land directly on LP quotes; persistent buyer

health=ok, active (though 7 USDC BTC buy

5 settled deals — external wallet, reliable taker

Delivered swaps mission — could take LP quotes, but only 1 deal lifetime

None identifiable — the agent is actively filling incoming intents and its 4 reliable counterparties are taking quotes. The watcher fires on new fillable intents, so responsive to demand. ETH/BTC ask gaps mean some arb opportunities on those legs are structurally unavailable until inventory replenishes.

Per-quote price guards (10 thresholds) fire before inversion, not after — LP cannot be picked off without a wake

Expiry guard fires 5 min early on soonest intent (#1023) — prevents silent book decay

New fillable intent scan with HOLD-set filter — responsive to taker demand

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a maker maintaining live quotes

pidAlive=false is correct: Node process exits after arming; daemon holds alarm

No guard for when ETH/BTC inventory recovers enough to post missing asks — LP stays at 10/12 silently until next fallback fires

Price guard thresholds are hardcoded to w68 quote prices — after a book rebuild (w67/w68 concurrent collision) the new quote IDs/prices are baked in, but stale

Add an inventory-recovery guard: if ETH > 0.5 or BTC > 0.005 (posting threshold), fireWake('ETH/BTC inventory recovered — post missing asks'). This closes the gap where the LP sits at 10/12 for up to 30 min after inventory replenishes.

Concurrent session collisions causing book churn and gas waste

w67: full book rebuild, 10 txns, ~$2 gas. w68: 4 intended intents cancelled mid-flight by a parallel session. w65: duplicate spawned by ETH inversion guard firing while another session was active. The watcher fires a new Node process while the previous session's on-chain txns are still pending — the

SDK: add a session-lock (e.g. advisory file lock on /agent/data/wake/session.lock) so a new wake process exits immediately if a prior session is still running. The fallback will retry; the book stays stable.

ETH/BTC ask gap — no recovery trigger

ETH inventory $0.25, BTC $0.33 — both below posting threshold. LP correctly skips asks, but has no trigger to post them once inventory replenishes (e.g. after Arb-Hunter fills a bid). Gap can persist up to 30 min.

Add inventory-threshold guard in wake-script (see suggestedChange above). Threshold values should come from the agent's own posting-floor config, not magic numbers.

Hardcoded quote prices/IDs in wake-script become stale after rebuilds

Current wake-script bakes in w68 quote IDs (#1040, #1041, etc.) and their exact prices. After a concurrent-session rebuild (w67/w68), new IDs are posted at slightly different prices — the old thresholds may be off by a few bps until the next wake rewrites the script.

Minor: wake-script should derive inversion thresholds from a stored config file (e.g. /agent/data/wake/quotes.json written each wake) rather than inline constants, so a rebuild automatically updates them.

Mimic-Ljuba

No flow to mirror; self-originated directional bet on BTC bear momentum. 3pp edge floor met (65% fair vs 62% cost-implie

intent #1088 resolved OR new BinaryBet OR 66min fallback

Summary: Prior: Bear-Yosher was the sole source of BinaryBet flow; Mimic's 6 in-flight deals were safe (oracle-settled, Bear's liveness irrelevant). This cycle: Bear crashed 392 min ago and the board has gone dark for BinaryBets — wakes w55–w60 all returned 'edge floor ≥3pp unmet / board empty.' Mimic correctly identified no takeable binary flow and self-originated a

Mimic is alive and correctly waiting, but 14/16 settled deals were ↔Bear-Yosher — the sole BinaryBet source is dark. Self-originated Intent #1088 (BTC<$62k, ~18:47 UTC expiry) is the only live exposure. With Bear down and option-writer-matheus/polymarket-ljuba not posting BinaryBets, Mimic has 0 reliable counterparties until Bear restarts or a new binary poster emerges.

14 of 16 settled deals are BinaryBet↔Bear-Yosher; 1 custom↔Bear-Yosher; board has been empty of BinaryBets across wakes w55–w60 post-crash. option-writer-matheus (16 deals) posts Options not BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba (2 deals) posts small-shade binary but zero BinaryBet-template intents visible o

Sound for the wrong upstream problem. Mimic enforces the ≥3pp edge floor correctly, applies the one-deliberate-move rule appropriately, and self-originated a bet when the board was empty — disciplined execution. But self-originating a directional BTC bear bet ('w61: self-originated directional bet on BTC bear momentum') is a mild mission stretch: the mission is 'mirror recent BinaryBets and accept

Intent #1088 filled or expired (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet templateHash match on open book (newMatches scan, 60s poll)

66-min fallback (calibrated to #1088 ~18:47 UTC expiry)

Only consistent BinaryBet poster; source of 14/16 Mimic deals

CRASHED — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 3

Posts Options (different template); Mimic's watcher filters for BinaryBet templateHash only — correct exclusion given mission

Mission includes 'make a small-shade binary only' — could post BinaryBet-template intents, but none visible on book this cycle

active, 2 deals, but 0 BinaryBets posted

Takes near-decided binaries — could take Mimic's self-posted #1088 if it becomes near-decided; not a flow source for Mimic

None within mission scope. option-writer-matheus and polymarket-ljuba are not posting BinaryBet-template intents on the book. No takeable BinaryBets have appeared since Bear crashed. Intent #1088 (self-posted) is the only live binary activity.

Fires on ownIntentResolved for #1088 — correct: Mimic must act when its live exposure settles

Filters strictly by BinaryBet templateHash — no false fires on swaps or options

66-min fallback calibrated to #1088 expiry (~18:47 UTC) — tight, purposeful, not a generic poll

60s poll cadence is appropriate for binary bet flow (not sub-minute spam)

seenIds baseline pattern avoids firing on stale book state at startup

No trigger for new intents from polymarket-ljuba's binary-making leg — if ljuba posts a BinaryBet, the newMatches scan catches it, but there's no direct subscri

Add a secondary fallback condition: if Bear-Yosher's watcher comes back online (pidAlive check via a fleet-status file), fire immediately — Mimic's primary flow source restarting is the highest-value event to wake on, currently invisible to

100% counterparty concentration on Bear-Yosher

14/16 deals are ↔Bear-Yosher. When Bear is down, Mimic's copy-trading engine has nothing to copy and degrades to self-posting directional bets — a different, unvalidated strategy. Net drawdown is $36.38 (-36% of $100 starting capital) across 16 deals with only $0.59 realized PnL, suggesting the mirr

Extend Mimic's CLAUDE.md to recognize polymarket-ljuba and option-writer-matheus as secondary binary flow sources; add logic to monitor their posted intents as copy targets when Bear is offline. Also review whether the $0.59 PnL / 16 deals win-rate is acceptable or signals systematic mispricing in t

Self-posting directional bets is a mission stretch

w61 self-originated a BTC-bear directional bet (#1088) when the board was empty. The mission is 'mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets' — not 'post original bets when flow is absent.' This is Mimic acting as a maker, not a copy-trader, without validated edge.

Add an explicit fallback policy to CLAUDE.md: if board is empty for N consecutive wakes, hold capital rather than self-post, OR gate self-posting on a stricter conviction threshold (e.g. ≥10pp edge, recent on-chain price momentum confirmation).

Binary bet flow collapses when Bear-Yosher is offline

Bear is the only consistent BinaryBet poster. Its crash leaves Mimic, arb-hunter-tom, and polymarket-ljuba with no binary flow to act on. 10 live Bear↔Mimic deals are resolving from pre-crash inventory — after they settle, the binary market is structurally frozen until Bear restarts.

Restart Bear-Yosher. If that's not immediate, incentivize polymarket-ljuba to increase its 'small-shade binary' posting frequency as a bridge supply — currently 2 lifetime deals is insufficient to sustain Mimic.

Momentum-Nikita

Edge threshold unmet on both lookbacks. sNVDA is crashing (-2.71% intraday) but it's the laggard not the leader — can't

full-universe relative-gap ≥2pp (BTC·ETH·SSV·sAAPL·sNVDA·sMSFT) or 4h fallback

Summary: SSV remained persistent near-leader through w17 (13:43 UTC, 249 min ago); sNVDA cratered -2.71% intraday but as laggard, correctly filtered out. Gap threshold still unmet — agent dormant and correct. Key new observation: w16 logs reference 'both lookbacks' but the live w17 watcher script has only ONE static baseline (set at arm-time, never rolled). A 4h+-old

No on-chain action since w16 (249 min ago). SSV still the closest asset to the 2pp trigger but hasn't broken through. Agent correctly waiting — armed+pid alive, 236 min to fallback. The 2pp gap is the right signal bar, but the watcher's fixed baseline (reset only at arm-time, not rolling) means gaps measured over a 4h+ runtime are artificially suppressed: gradual intraday moves vanish into the denominator. LP-Maker is now live (11 open intents) giving a fill path if threshold fires.

1 settled deal lifetime (no detail available); SSV intent #745 failed pre-LP-recovery (illiquidity); intents #w12–w17 all no-action due to 2pp gap unmet. Market: crypto field declining together, no leadership separation across 6 wakes.

Sound on signal filtering — correctly rejected sNVDA crash at w17 (laggard not leader), correctly held off on choppy correlated declines at w12–w16. But the baseline staleness is a measurement error: if SSV drifted +1.5pp over 3h and then another +0.8pp in the last hour, the watcher sees +2.3pp vs. a 4h-old floor and fires — correct. But if the 4h move is +2.1pp and it all happened in hour 1, the

relative gap ≥2pp between any two assets (BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) vs. arm-time baseline

MISSING: rolling lookback window — baseline is fixed at watcher arm; over 4h+ runtime, recent momentum is diluted by early-session baseline drift. W16 logs 'bot

Primary fill-side for USDC→asset swaps; now live with 11 open intents. SSV intent #745 failed pre-recovery — fill path exists now if thresho

Also posts USDC→ETH/asset slices; could incidentally fill a momentum intent if directions align, but not a designed counterparty.

live, 1 open intent (4 USDC → ETH, 58 mi

None verifiable — wake logs confirm no asset cleared 2pp gap in w12–w17. Watcher is oracle-connected and measuring the live book; the metric is measurable and shows genuine threshold misses, not watcher blindness.

Live baseline captured at first poll (not hardcoded from prior wake) — correct for intraday momentum

Full 6-asset universe (BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) enables real leadership detection

Gracefully skips oracle failures rather than firing on incomplete data

60s polling cadence is appropriate — not sub-minute gaming, just momentum detection

4h fallback ensures the agent wakes even in flat markets

Static baseline (set once at arm-time, never refreshed): over a 4h+ watcher runtime, early-session moves absorb into the denominator and compress the apparent g

w16 agent log references 'both lookbacks' but w17 script has only one baseline — if the dual-lookback was intentional signal robustness, dropping it is a regres

Add a periodic baseline reset every 60 min: `if (Date.now() - baselineTs > 3600_000) { baseline = { ...current }; baselineTs = Date.now(); }` — this keeps the gap measurement anchored to recent momentum rather than 4h-old drift, without los

Baseline staleness over 4h+ watcher runtime

The watcher captures `baseline` once at arm-time and never resets it. Over the 4h fallback window, early-session price moves become baked into the denominator, making recent relative momentum look smaller. A leadership signal that develops gradually over 2h may never hit 2pp vs. the 4h-old anchor.

Reset baseline every 60 min (timestamp-gated inside the poll loop). Preserve the first-poll live-anchor behavior for the initial reading.

Dual-lookback dropped between w16 and w17

W16 agent logs 'Edge threshold unmet on both lookbacks' — implying a short + long lookback. W17 watcher script has only a single baseline. If dual-lookback was intentional (short-term confirmation + medium-term trend), dropping it reduces signal quality. If it was buggy, the log is misleading.

Confirm whether the second lookback was deliberate; if so, restore it in the watcher script as a secondary returns array with a separate rolling baseline.

SSV inventory on LP-Maker unconfirmed

SSV intent #745 expired pre-LP-recovery. LP is now live but its 11 open intents are USDC/ETH/sNVDA-oriented. If LP doesn't hold SSV inventory, a new SSV momentum intent will expire again — and the agent has no other reliable fill counterparty for SSV.

Fleet-level: LP-Maker should periodically publish its asset inventory so momentum watchers can assess fill probability before posting; alternatively, momentum-nikita should check LP's open intents for the target asset before committing.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Cheap optionality: thin premium ($0.25) on 1.41%-OTM call with 23h time value on volatile NVDA-linked stock. 20x max pay

new audited Option intent appears OR deals settle window OR 23h fallback

Summary: The Step-1 drawdown-kill question is answered: option-writer-matheus IS still writing. Since w23 found zero options (prior summary), option-writer posted intents #1075 and #1090 — option-taker took both: deal #118 (sNVDA call, strike $203.69, $0.25 premium, $5 collateral, ~23h) at w25 (17:42) and deal #119 (sNVDA put, strike $201.75, $0.23 premium, $5 collat

Option-taker is active and correct to take — option-writer survived its drawdown scare and posted two fresh sNVDA options, both taken. The $7.76 realized PnL from the ETH put (deal settled ITM) is the only closed P&L; two new live positions total ~$10 collateral at risk. The main concern is not health but reasoning drift: the agent evaluated deal #118 and #119 independently ('cheap optionality') without recognizing it built a straddle — the combined position is coherent only if volatility is the intent.

All 3 settled deals and both new live deals (118, 119) are exclusively against option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). No other option writers active. If option-writer halts, supply drops to zero.

Per-trade reasoning is sound and quantitative (premium/collateral ratio, OTM distance, time value cited). However the agent evaluates each option in isolation — w25 took a call, w26 took a put on the same underlying 49 min later with no acknowledgment of the aggregate sNVDA straddle now being held. Sound reasoning, wrong scope: this is trade-level discipline without portfolio-level awareness. If t

New audited Option intent detected (templateHash 0xb3d66f4b…, 60s poll)

nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (hardcoded 1781194956 — deal #118 expiry minus 5 min)

Sole option writer; confirmed alive post-drawdown-scare (intents #1075, #1090 both fresh sNVDA options, taken successfully)

unmeasurable: watcher scans all audited Option intents by templateHash — if any other writer used the same template, they'd be caught. But with only one writer active and both fresh intents taken, no observable missed opportunities this cycle.

Detects new audited Option intents via templateHash filter on every 60s poll — correct fit for a reactive taker mission

Settle-window trigger fires before expiry to allow timely settlement

23h fallback matches typical option expiry horizon — appropriate cadence for a patient single-take-per-wake agent

seenIntentIds baseline-on-first-poll pattern avoids spurious wakes on pre-existing intents

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to deal #118's expiry minus 5 min — after deal #118 settles, this condition fires on EVERY 60s poll indefinitely (now

No awareness of deal #119's later expiry (1781200212) — the settle-window trigger won't fire at the right time for #119

Replace the hardcoded MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS with a dynamic lookup: at each poll, fetch open deals, compute min(expiry) across live option deals, and fire if nowSec >= that value minus 300. This self-heals as deals settle and new ones are accepte

Hardcoded MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS will fire on every poll after deal #118 expires

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is a past-pointing constant once deal #118 settles (~23h from now). After that point, nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS is permanently true, causing a wake every 60s until the script is updated. Deal #119's expiry (1781200212) is not covered at all.

Compute min deal expiry dynamically from open deals at each poll iteration; fire if within 5 min of the earliest unsettled expiry.

Portfolio-blind trade evaluation — straddle built without acknowledgment

w25 took an sNVDA call (strike $203.69) and w26 took an sNVDA put (strike $201.75) 49 min later. Each was evaluated independently as 'cheap optionality.' The agent holds a de-facto straddle with ~$10 collateral at risk on sNVDA. If this is intentional, the reasoning should state it; if not, the agen

In the wake prompt, surface current open option positions (underlying, direction, strike) so the LLM can reason about aggregate exposure before taking a new option on the same underlying.

Mission description says ETH/BTC but agent is taking sNVDA options

Mission: 'Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options.' Both live deals and all recent takes are sNVDA. Option-writer writes stock options too — if the taker is meant to take anything option-writer posts, the mission is stale and misleading.

Update CLAUDE.md mission to reflect actual scope (ETH/BTC + stock options written by option-writer-matheus) so reasoning prompts align with real behavior.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Rotation trigger (sAAPL no longer worst-2 stock, sMSFT now worst) was executed in wake 39. This wake confirms sAAPL fill

sMSFT buy intent 0x1091 (buy 0.042 sMSFT for 17 USDC) resolves, or 60-min fallback

Summary: At w35 (13:40) drawdown hit -19.26%, 0.74% from the -20% kill limit; agent self-canceled 933 (sMSFT buy) and 938 (sAAPL sell), halted Engine 1 and paused Engine 2. Recovery followed: w36 tested one ETH put (951, 1% OTM, 8 USDC collateral) citing drawdown recovery above threshold; by w38 (14:02) book reads $89.15 = -10.85% drawdown — a 8.4pp improvement, kill

Kill threshold was not breached. Drawdown recovered from -19.26% (w35) to -10.85% (w38), a 8.4pp improvement — likely driven by crypto leg (BTC+ETH up 0.75%+). Engine 2 is active again with two live rotation swaps; Engine 1 (options) remains correctly paused after 7 unfilled attempts. Realized PnL still -$11.64 lifetime.

Engine 1 paused: 7 consecutive option intents (most recently 951 at 14:00) unfilled — no option buyers present (option-taker-matheus is the only known taker, 1 settled custom deal). Engine 2 rotation swaps depend on LP fills: 0x431/0x432 posted but not yet settled; LP has 11 open intents and is heal

Sound and mission-aligned. The agent correctly identified the drawdown breach risk, proactively self-canceled rather than waiting for expiry, tested options on the recovery signal, then correctly re-paused after continued non-fills. w39 rotation logic (sAAPL rank flip from -1.31% to +0.27% = exit; sMSFT worsened = enter) is quantitative and on-mission. One anomaly: w37 carries timestamp 13:35, whi

Intent 0x431 (sAAPL sell 0.052 → 14.7 USDC) resolves (filled or expired)

Intent 0x432 (sMSFT buy 0.0425 → 17 USDC) resolves (filled or expired)

90-min fallback (fires in ~10 min from last data)

Primary swap counterparty; 87 settled deals, 11 open intents live — should be able to fill 0x431/0x432 if prices overlap

Only known option buyer (1 custom settled deal); Engine 1 paused so no options to take right now

Posts swap intents in overlapping tokens (USDC→ETH active), could cross with rotation swaps incidentally

None identifiable from available data. Engine 1 is self-paused (correct given 7 unfilled attempts). Engine 2 posted rotation swaps at w39; whether LP's current 11 open intents include matching sAAPL/sMSFT legs is unverifiable without reading the book, but no evidence the agent missed a fillable intent.

Watches specific intent IDs (0x431, 0x432) — not book-level noise, targeted to the agent's live positions

Fires on resolution of EITHER intent (OR logic) — correct, agent needs to reconcile as soon as any rotation leg settles

90-min fallback for reconciliation/repricing — appropriate cadence for a patient contrarian rotator

Zero-LLM, no sub-minute polling (60s interval is the floor, acceptable)

readIntent returning falsy is ambiguous: a network error or a not-found both satisfy !intent0x431, risking a spurious wake on transient RPC failure rather than

Check for an explicit settled/expired status field from readIntent rather than truthiness — e.g. `if (intent.status === 'settled' || intent.status === 'expired')` — to prevent spurious wakes on RPC errors.

Wake number / timestamp ordering anomaly at w37

w37 is logged at 13:35, chronologically before w36 (14:00), despite a higher wake number. w37 content (Engine 1 pause decision) and w36 content (option post citing 'recovery') appear to conflict in sequence. Could be a concurrent wake race or a timestamp bug in the wake logger.

Audit wake scheduling: check if two watcher instances were running simultaneously around 13:35–14:02; confirm wake numbers are assigned atomically at fire time, not at script start.

Engine 1 indefinitely paused — 0 options revenue

7+ consecutive ETH/BTC option intents unfilled; Engine 1 self-paused correctly, but no re-enable condition is defined in the current watcher. Recovery to -10.85% drawdown and crypto vol up 0.75%+ (per w36) didn't sustain option buyer interest.

Define a concrete re-enable trigger for Engine 1: e.g., drawdown < -5% AND 1+ option-taker open intents visible on book. Without a re-enable path, Engine 1 stays paused indefinitely even if conditions improve.

readIntent null-check insufficient for reliable resolution detection

The watcher fires when !readIntent result — which is true for both 'intent settled/expired' and 'RPC error/timeout'. A transient node error triggers a spurious LLM wake and burns ~$0.15.

SDK readIntent should return a typed status ('open'|'settled'|'expired'|'error') so watchers can distinguish resolution from failure; or document the null contract explicitly so agent scripts can handle it.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL position well-anchored within weekly horizon, no exit triggers hit. No new dir

Summary: Still holding 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 entry (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / Jun12 20:00 UTC). Neither price trigger has fired in 233 min since last wake — price remains mid-range. Edge erosion commentary (1.5%→3.1%→1.5% across w22–w25) is inconsistent in direction but the core behavior is correct convergence-waiting. Bear-yosher crash (392 min) has nearly

Correct hold behavior — no stop/forward trigger in 233 min confirms sAAPL in $277.34–$303.75 range. The tertiary wake trigger (new binary/option intents) is functionally dead with bear-yosher crashed and 0 open intents on book; next scheduled check is Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback. No agent-side fault; fleet-level binary supply is the binding constraint.

0 open binary/option intents on book; bear-yosher (primary binary poster, 17 deals) crashed 392 min ago; mimic-ljuba (16 deals, ok) is the sole remaining binary source but hasn't posted new intents in the window; option-writer-matheus (16 deals, ok) is the only option source

Sound and solving the right problem. 'No misprice' across w19–w26 is not churn — it is correct convergence behavior for a position approaching its Jun12 horizon with no book activity. One flag: edge erosion figures are directionally inconsistent (w22: 1.5%, w24: 3.1%, w25/w23: 1.5%) — the agent may be recomputing edge from a stale or varying Polymarket reference each wake rather than tracking a mo

horizonTs reached (Jun12 20:00 UTC, via state.json)

new binary/option intent appears on book (60s poll)

MISSING: bear-yosher restart event — tertiary trigger now nearly inert with 0 binary posters active; no compensating signal

Writes options (70/30 engine); polymarket-ljuba's primary source for cheap/ITM options to buy

Posts BinaryBets mirroring recent activity; potential taker target

ok, 16 deals, awake — but 0 open intents

Was primary binary intent poster (BTC/ETH down + tech up thesis); polymarket-ljuba's best mispricing source

crashed, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 39

Takes near-decided binaries; competes for same targets, not a source

none — 0 open binary/option intents on book during this window; bear-yosher crash eliminated the primary supply. No takeable intents existed to miss.

Fires on oracle stop ($277.34) and forward ($303.75) — right triggers for the held sAAPL swap

Reads horizonTs from state.json (not hardcoded) — correctly picked up Jun12 20:00 UTC after w25 correction

Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback (24h before expiry) is operationally correct — gives time to source maker candidates before final horizon

4h minimum fallback floor prevents runaway-long sleep if Jun11 is already past

60s poll cadence appropriate for intraday price monitoring against hard stop/forward levels

Tertiary new-binary/option-intent trigger correctly scoped to kind=unknown|binary|option — will catch option-writer-matheus output

Tertiary trigger is now near-inert: bear-yosher (primary binary poster) is down, 0 open intents on book — the poll is running but never fires on new intents

Edge computation between wakes appears inconsistent (1.5%→3.1%→1.5%) — watcher doesn't re-anchor to a single Polymarket reference fetch; each wake recomputes in

No structural change needed — the watcher is correctly staged for the Jun11 fallback and price triggers are the load-bearing logic. Single highest-value addition: log the current sAAPL oracle price on every poll tick (not just on trigger) s

Binary intent supply collapsed with bear-yosher crash

bear-yosher was the dominant binary poster (17 deals); 392 min offline means polymarket-ljuba's tertiary trigger (new binary/option intent) will not fire until bear-yosher restarts or mimic-ljuba posts. 0 open binary/option intents currently.

Restart bear-yosher; or expand polymarket-ljuba's counterparty awareness to actively poll option-writer-matheus's posted options as a compensating source

Inconsistent edge-erosion figures across wakes

w22=1.5%, w23=1.5%, w24=3.1%, w25=1.5% — edge should erode monotonically as horizon approaches; non-monotonic values suggest Polymarket probability fetch is varying or the computation anchors to a different reference each wake

Pin the Polymarket reference probability at position-entry in state.json and compute edge decay relative to that anchor, not a live re-fetch each wake; or log the raw Polymarket probability alongside the edge % so drift is auditable

Rebalancer-Lior

9+ BTC oracle-price expiries — LP always premium, no retail takers. Playbook: pivot to ETH which fills more reliably. 4

#1089 ETH DCA resolves (fill/expire ~18:47 UTC) or stock close 20:00 UTC

LP-Maker minimum = 12 USDC; every BTC intent posted at 7 USDC (w20, w21 #777 expired, w22 #831 expired, w23 #887 ~expired). 0xBd6a took 2/8 lifetime deals at small lots but no confirmed current book presence. No other demonstrated small-lot BTC taker in fleet.

intent #887 resolved (ownIntentResolved poll every 60s)

stocks market open 2026-06-10T13:30:00Z fallback (36 min remaining)

12 USDC minimum lot size; current BTC intent is 7 USDC — hard floor, not price-sensitive

Only demonstrated small-lot BTC taker (2/8 deals); external address, reliability unknown

Taker of mispriced/near-decided deals, not a BTC swap maker

Dual trigger is correct: intent resolution (fill/expire) fires first, stocks market open as hard fallback — no wasted sleep

60s poll interval appropriate for a patient DCA agent

Watcher is zero-LLM, has fallback, and armed correctly (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=36)

Watches for intent resolution but cannot detect lot-size mismatch — agent will post another 7 USDC intent at next wake unless the mission CLAUDE.md is corrected

Incorrect diagnosis of LP non-fill: oracle price vs lot-size floor

Agent's w23 log states 'LP may come alive at this lower oracle' — but LP-Maker minimum is 12 USDC regardless of price. 7 USDC lots are always below the floor. This reasoning will produce a 5th identical expiry.

Add to rebalancer-lior CLAUDE.md: 'LP-Maker minimum lot is 12 USDC; BTC DCA slices must be ≥ 12 USDC to be LP-fillable. Do not post below this threshold and attribute failure to oracle price.'

4 consecutive failed BTC DCA slices with zero lot-size adaptation

w20 → w21 (#777 expired) → w22 (#831 expired, agent logged '3rd attempt') → w23 (#887, almost certainly expired). Mission is DCA progress; zero fills = zero progress. BTC remains -7.4pp underweight.

Bump BTC DCA slice to 12–15 USDC to enter LP-fillable range. If budget constrains lot size below 12 USDC, document that BTC DCA is blocked until budget allows a fillable slice and shift focus to stock rebalancing (sAAPL underweight -15pp, stocks open in ~36 min).

Stacker-Massimo

Bid is tracking oracle correctly (posted at oracle×0.99 when oracle=$207.92; oracle unchanged). No sweepable sell-side.

Summary: Pre-open hold continues correctly. Watcher countdown has advanced from nextFallbackMin=189 (last run) to 129 now — consistent with ~60 min elapsed, no drift. Still armed (pidAlive=true) for epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC, ~99 min away from ~11:51 UTC now). Portfolio unchanged: 0.004928 sNVDA ($1.02), 9.00 USDC free. Both settled deals were with LP-Maker-Matheus

Watcher is correctly armed to fire at 13:30 UTC equity open (epoch 1781098200, fallback at 14:00 UTC). LP-Maker-Matheus is live with sNVDA quotes (12 USDC lot posted), and Stacker has 2 confirmed fills with LP-Maker proving the sub-lot fill path works. 9.00 USDC remains to deploy at 0.50 USDC/wake (~18 more wakes to exhaust budget).

Pre-market window; CLAUDE.md enforces 09:30–16:00 ET only. No fills possible now by design. 2 settled deals both with LP-Maker-Matheus confirm the path clears at open.

Sound and solving the right problem. w20 correctly identified 1.01% oracle drift and rotated intent 752→753 at refreshed price (oracle×0.99). w21–w26 held cleanly on market-hours logic with no redundant on-chain action. No churn — 22 repeat wakes are pre-open holds, not re-deriving the same bad move.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) via 30-second poll loop

fallback at 14:00 UTC (open + 30 min) if poll misses

Both settled deals were LP-Maker fills; LP has live sNVDA quote (12 USDC lot) and is confirmed able to fill Stacker's 0.50 USDC slices

none — pre-market, trading correctly blocked by CLAUDE.md market-hours rule; LP-Maker's sNVDA quote is live but Stacker cannot and should not act before 13:30 UTC

Fires exactly at epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) — the only moment Stacker is allowed to act

30-second poll cadence is appropriate: lightweight, zero-LLM, no book dependency

Fallback at open+30 min (14:00 UTC) is a sensible safety net; nextFallbackMin=129 confirms it resolves to ~14:00 UTC from current ~11:51 UTC

No book-watching needed for a pure DCA mission — correctly omitted

fallbackMs when already past open evaluates to 30 min from invocation time, which is correct but implicit — a comment would prevent future confusion

No functional change needed; the script is mission-fit. Optional: add inline comment explaining the post-open fallbackMs edge case for maintainability.

LP lot-size headroom shrinks as sNVDA price rises

LP posts 12 USDC lots; Stacker posts 0.50 USDC. Confirmed fills show LP accepts sub-lot today, but if LP tightens minimums or oracle price moves, 0.50 USDC may become un-fillable. Currently 9.00 USDC / 18 wakes remaining.

Monitor: if next fill at 13:30 fails despite LP live, check whether LP minimum crossed 0.50 USDC threshold and adjust slice size in CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

Real -1.75% dislocation vs 1.5% threshold. Modest stretch → lower end of 15-25% range, $18 USDC slice (18% of book). USD

sNVDA buy-dip intent 0x437 resolves or 2h fallback

Summary: After 8 straight no-trade wakes (w13–w20) due to sNVDA position/market-hours double-block and no buy-dip above 1.5%, w21 (17:43 UTC) fired on a real −1.75% sNVDA dislocation and posted 18 USDC → 0.089 sNVDA intent 0x437 at oracle mid $202.28/sNVDA. Watcher is live and armed, watching for 0x437 resolution (2h fallback at 114 min). Key change from last summary

Intent 0x437 (18 USDC → 0.089 sNVDA, ~114 min remaining) is priced at oracle mid $202.28/sNVDA; LP-Maker's sNVDA ask is $203.33 — a $1.08/unit gap (0.53%). LP will not fill below its ask floor, and no other active sNVDA seller exists in the fleet. Unless oracle reprices upward by ~0.5%, this intent will expire unfilled. The trade thesis (−1.75% dislocation, correct sizing) is sound; the fill gap is structural, not the agent's fault.

Intent 0x437 bids $202.25/sNVDA (18 USDC / 0.089 sNVDA); LP-Maker's sNVDA ask is $203.33. Gap = $1.08/unit (~$0.096 total on 0.089 units). Agent priced at oracle mid ($202.28) which is correct per mission, but LP quotes above mid — structural mismatch, not agent error. Lot size (18 USDC) clears LP's

Sound — w21 correctly identified −1.75% sNVDA dislocation (above 1.5% threshold), sized at 18% of book ($18 USDC), and posted at oracle mid. Reasoning is on-mission, quantitative, and non-churn. The 8 prior no-trade wakes were disciplined blocking (zero position / market hours) rather than churn. One concern: posting at oracle mid when LP's ask is known to be $1.08 above creates a predictably unfi

ownIntentResolved('0x437') — fires when intent fills or expires

2h fallback (nextFallbackMin=114) — catches expiry if intent resolution event missed

MISSING: no pre-post LP ask check — agent doesn't verify that LP's current ask ≤ oracle mid before posting, so it can post an intent the only counterparty won't

Only active sNVDA seller in fleet; ask $203.33 vs intent bid $202.25 — gap must close ~0.5% for fill

live, 11 open intents, but ask above int

Also a sNVDA buyer (same side), not a seller; also crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

Takes mispriced swaps, but intent is at oracle mid — not a 'mispriced' bait; also crashed

none — swing-nikita is a poster (one slice per wake); taking others' intents is outside mission scope. Watcher is intent-specific so inter-wake opportunity detection is by design absent.

Watches ownIntentResolved on 0x437 — exactly the event this agent cares about post-post

2h fallback covers intent expiry window cleanly (fallbackMs: 2*3600_000)

Zero-LLM, zero polling overhead — tight loop with proper deadline guard

PID file written on launch — correct liveness signaling

Intent-specific: once 0x437 resolves, no mechanism to detect a new dislocation mid-sleep — but this is acceptable per 'one slice per wake' mission cadence

In the pre-post wake logic (not the watcher), add a live LP ask fetch: if LP's sNVDA ask > oracle_mid * 1.003 (i.e., spread > 0.3%), skip posting and re-arm for 30 min — avoids burning $0.43 on an intent the only counterparty won't fill.

Posts at oracle mid without checking counterparty ask floor

w21 cost $0.43 (entire 5h spend) to post an intent that LP cannot fill at its current $203.33 ask vs $202.28 oracle mid. Agent's pre-post reasoning doesn't include a live ask sanity check.

Before posting, fetch LP's live sNVDA ask; if ask > oracle_mid + threshold (e.g., 0.3%), defer wake and re-arm for 30–60 min rather than posting a dead-on-arrival intent.

No fleet-level signal when LP ask diverges significantly from oracle mid

A $1.08 LP-ask-over-mid gap ($203.33 vs $202.28) means any swap agent posting at oracle mid for sNVDA will get unfilled. This is a fleet-wide condition that affects swing-nikita, rebalancer-lior, and stacker-massimo simultaneously.

Expose a per-asset 'LP spread vs oracle mid' metric in the belt/book data so agents can gate posting decisions on live spread width, not just dislocation magnitude.

Vulture-Andrew

Summary: LP recovery unblocked vulture immediately: rebalance buys 935/932 (sNVDA/sMSFT) settled instantly at w63 (13:47) as deals 98/99, +$0.28 edge — confirming LP was the binding constraint. Bait sells 874 sAAPL 1%, 875 sMSFT 1%, 876 SSV 2.21% remain open; LP does not take bait sells (it's a neutral maker, not a directional taker), so fills depend on momentum/swin

LP return directly triggered instant fills on rebalance buys 935/932 (+$0.28, deals 98/99) at w63. The 8 bait sells still open are now waiting on directional takers (momentum/swing/stacker all live at market open) — LP cannot fill bait sells by design. No fill blockage remains; this is normal patient bait posture.

9 of 11 recent settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; rebalance buys 935/932 settled instantly once LP returned (w63 13:47); bait sells 874/875/876 require directional takers not LP — momentum/swing/stacker live but haven't crossed yet this cycle

Sound and solving the right problem. w63 correctly posted rebalance buys immediately on LP recovery and captured +$0.28 instantly. w64 correctly pruned 950 (eroded to 0.36% below 0.5% floor) and 941 (stale after 0.31% oracle drift). Bait sell hold decision (≥1% with longer TTL vs rivals at 1% floor) is quantitatively justified per playbook. No churn detected.

scan-edges: new takeable edge ≥1% (excluding pre-seeded honeypots 779/836/869)

check-my-quotes: cancelCmds.length > 0 (erosion/undercut)

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest intent expiry

MISSING: no immediate trigger when LP posts a matching quote — relies on 30s poll cycle, so LP quote arrival can lag up to 30s before vulture fires

Primary swap counterparty (9/11 recent deals); fills rebalance buys instantly on return — confirmed deals 98/99

Secondary swap counterparty, 3/11 recent settled deals — unknown agent but reliably active

Could take sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA bait sells if these are the strongest movers this wake; directional taker

Fades dislocations — could take vulture's bait sells if asset stretched above trailing avg

Only buys sNVDA at 0.50 USDC/wake — lot size too small for vulture's bait sells

Takes mispriced swaps on fast CEX feed; could cross vulture's bait sells if oracle lags

None. w57–w62 correctly report no takeable edges ≥1%. Watcher can see the book via scan-edges (measurable). Honeypot pre-seed (779/836/869) prevents false positives. Hold decisions in w57/w60/w61 are correct per playbook.

Fires on new takeable edge ≥1% via scan-edges — directly aligned with vulture's pick-off mission

check-my-quotes erosion/undercut trigger prevents free pick-off of stale quotes

Pre-expiry trigger (~5 min before soonest expiry) protects against TTL-lapse waste

seenEdgeIds pre-seeded with confirmed honeypots (779/836/869) — zero-LLM guard

30s poll cadence + 2h hard fallback — appropriate for opportunistic agent

30s poll means up to 30s lag between LP posting a matching quote and vulture firing — suboptimal for competitive fill race

No explicit LP-quote-arrival event trigger; relies on scan-edges polling rather than reactive signal

Add a lightweight LP-quote monitor: check if LP's open quotes include any asset vulture holds in rebalance deficit, and fire immediately if a match appears — closes the 30s lag window that could cost fills in a competitive market-open envir

[object Object] logging in wake descriptions

w59, w61, w62, w63, w64 all show '[object Object]' in the wake log summary line — an object is being string-interpolated without .toString() or JSON.stringify(). Degrades historical analysis readability.

Find the wake-log string concatenation where the state/result object is interpolated and replace with JSON.stringify(obj) or obj.summary / obj.action fields.

Realized PnL -$1.20 on 34 deals at 15.1% pool spend ($22.82/5h)

34 deals with $55.43 lifetime token cost and -$1.20 realized PnL means edge capture is not yet covering LLM costs. The +$0.28 from deals 98/99 is directionally correct but the rate needs to accelerate now LP is live.

Monitor PnL-per-deal over next 5 wakes with LP active; if bait sells remain unfilled >60 min into market-open epoch, lower bait floor from 1% to 0.75% to attract momentum/swing flow.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

LP HUB LIVE, BINARY DARK

RESOLVING — 10 live deals from pre-crash inventory; new supply = 0 (Bear crashed

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, Swing-Nikita, Arb-Hunter-Tom, 0xBd6a, 0x5F79}

LIVE — 11 LP quotes open, 86 settled; Vulture crashed (bait-sell takers absent),

ISOLATED — straddle live (deals 118/119, call $203.69 + put $201.75); writer cra

DEAD — both agents never deployed, 10 consecutive null cycles, 0 on-chain activi

Momentum-Nikita / Swing-Nikita / Stacker-Massimo → LP-Maker-Matheus

WAITING — Momentum gap unmet (<2pp), Swing sNVDA intent 0x437 live but $1.08/uni

Bear-Yosher crashed 395 min ago — second consecutive watcher process death (armed=false, pidAlive=false; w40 'PID 6802 g

Binary market entering extinction: Mimic-Ljuba counterparty-starved (w55–w60 empty board), Arb-Hunter-Tom binary surface

bear-yosher: 17 settled BinaryBets all ↔ Mimic-Ljuba; mimic-ljuba: '14 of 16 settled deals BinaryBet↔Bear-Yosher'; arb-hunter-tom: 'w167/w169/w170 confirm 0 binary bets on book'

LP-Maker-Matheus recovered from 931-min gap and posted 11 open quotes

Vulture-Andrew's rebalance buys 935/932 (sNVDA/sMSFT) settled instantly at w63 (+$0.28 edge); LP is the single most crit

vulture-andrew: 'rebalance buys 935/932 settled instantly once LP returned (w63 13:47) as deals 98/99'; lp-maker-matheus: 86 settled deals, $83.36/5h, 10/12 quotes live

Rebalancer-Lior posts lots (4 USDC ETH, 7 USDC BTC) below LP-Maker's 12 USDC minimum floor

4 consecutive intent expirations (#777, #831, #887, current 4 USDC ETH 44 min left on track for 4th expiry); agent misat

rebalancer-lior: 'LP-Maker minimum = 12 USDC; every BTC intent posted at 7 USDC'; open book: '4 USDC → 0.002466 ETH (44m left)' vs LP '0.007 ETH → 11.5 USDC'

Vulture-Andrew crashed 193 min ago (armed=false, pidAlive=false) with LP live and posting 11 quotes

Bait sells 874 (sAAPL 1%), 875 (sMSFT 1%), 876 (SSV 2.21%) presumably expired unfilled; LP's rebalance-demand flow has n

vulture-andrew badge FILLING POST-LP-RECOVERY confirms LP is the binding factor; 'LP does not take bait sells'; orient: '$6.91/5h burn agent is missing active take opportunities'; 9 of 11 settled deal

Option-writer-matheus crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false; drawdown –19.26% at w35, kill at –20%), but pre-crash wrote

Option-taker formed sNVDA straddle on pre-crash supply (deals 118/119: call $203.69 + put $201.75, $5 collateral each ~2

option-taker: 'deal #118 sNVDA call… deal #119 sNVDA put'; option-writer: armed=false, pidAlive=false; drawdown recovered to –10.85% (w38) but writer still offline

Oracle above CEX (inversion) blocking Arb-Hunter-Tom's give-USDC swap edges

6 consecutive waits since last fill (w164 SSV deal 114 +11bps); swap surface blocked w166/168/169 all confirm 'oracle ab

arb-hunter-tom: 'Swap: w166 oracle above CEX (currently reversed), w168/w169 same'; badge BOTH SURFACES DRY; 11 lifetime settled deals all swaps ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus

Binary market extinction imminent — Bear-Yosher 395 min crashed, no restart

Bear-Yosher (armed=false, pidAlive=false) is the sole binary intent poster. 10 live Bear↔Mimic BinaryBets are the last active inventory; board has been empty of BinaryBets across wakes w55–w60 post-crash. Once these 10 resolve, 0 binary supply remains and Mimic-Ljuba (1 live custom deposit only) and Arb-Hunter-Tom both lose their binary surface permanently.

bear-yosher: 17 settled BinaryBets all ↔ Mimic-Ljuba; watcher died twice (w40 'PID 6802 gone', w41 recovery also died); mimic-ljuba: '0 BinaryBets on book w55–w60'

Restart Bear-Yosher immediately. Root cause is platform process supervision — two consecutive watcher deaths, not a logic fault. Add SIGCHLD watchdog or supervisor so a dead watcher child triggers immediate re-arm without requiring a manual restart.

Vulture-Andrew 193 min crashed while LP has 11 live quotes — bait-sell window wasted

Vulture-Andrew (armed=false, pidAlive=false) went dark 193 min ago while LP-Maker-Matheus holds 11 open quotes. Bait sells 874/875/876 (sAAPL 1%, sMSFT 1%, SSV 2.21%) presumably expired. The LP recovery at w63 proved LP is Vulture's binding constraint — and LP is now live with no Vulture to take. Agent burns $6.91/5h with 0 open positions.

vulture-andrew: 'rebalance buys 935/932 settled instantly once LP returned (w63 13:47) as deals 98/99'; armed=false, pidAlive=false; orient: 'LP is now live with 11 open intents — $6.91/5h burn agent is missing active take opportunities'

Restart Vulture-Andrew. Same platform supervision gap as Bear-Yosher. Fleet cannot afford its two LP-fill-dependent agents both dark during an active LP window.

Rebalancer-Lior 4-peat lot-size miss — self-misdiagnosed as oracle issue

Agent posts 4 USDC ETH and 7 USDC BTC lots against LP-Maker's hard 12 USDC minimum floor. Intents #777, #831, #887 all expired; current 4 USDC ETH intent (44 min left) on track to expire 4th time. Agent logs blame oracle; the actual blocker is lot size. No other demonstrated small-lot ETH/BTC taker exists in the fleet.

rebalancer-lior: 'LP-Maker minimum = 12 USDC; every BTC intent posted at 7 USDC (w20 #777 expired, w22 #831 expired, w23 #887)'; current open: '4 USDC → 0.002466 ETH (44m left)' vs LP '0.007 ETH → wants 11.5 USDC'

Update Rebalancer-Lior CLAUDE.md: when LP-Maker is the only available counterparty, post ≥12 USDC lots minimum. Alternatively, accumulate across DCA rounds before posting. Stop diagnosing oracle as the cause — it is not.

Option-writer crashed post-recovery — straddle orphaned with no new supply

Option-writer (armed=false, pidAlive=false) is offline after drawdown hit –19.26% at w35 (kill limit –20%). Drawdown recovered to –10.85% by w38 but writer has not restarted. Option-taker holds live sNVDA straddle (deals 118/119, ~23h expiry); once these expire, taker has no option supply to act on.

option-writer: armed=false, pidAlive=false; 'w38 book reads $89.15 = –10.85% drawdown — kill limit cleared'; option-taker: deals 118 (sNVDA call $203.69) + 119 (sNVDA put $201.75) both live

Restart option-writer-matheus. Drawdown is above kill threshold — auto-restart condition is met. Investigate why drawdown recovery did not trigger self-restart; may be same watcher process-death pattern as Bear/Vulture.

Stacker-Massimo missed epoch fire — 242 min dark at market-open time

Stacker-Massimo shows armed=false, pidAlive=false, last_wake=242 min ago. Epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) was the expected fire time; prior cycle showed correct countdown (189→129 min). If US market is open (13:30–20:00 UTC), agent is missing its DCA window with 9 USDC free and 0.004928 sNVDA held.

stacker-massimo: armed=false, pidAlive=false; prior summary: 'still armed (pidAlive=true) for epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC)'; orient: 'Stacker-Massimo epoch [missed or crashed]'; last_wake_min_ago=242

Restart Stacker-Massimo. Check epoch fire log for error at 13:30 UTC. Consistent with fleet-wide watcher process-death pattern — same supervision gap.

LP-Maker concurrent session collisions — full book rebuilds at ~$2 gas each

LP-Maker-Matheus reports concurrent session collisions at w65, w67, w68: 'Concurrent sessions mutually cancelled each other's work, requiring full book rebuild. 10 total txns this wake. Gas ~$2.' LP is the hub for 5+ agents — its instability cascades to every dependent taker.

lp-maker-matheus: 'w67: 10 total txns this wake. Gas ~$2'; 'w68: #1012 SSV bid #1013 sAAPL bid #1014 sMSFT bid disappeared (concurrent session cancelled)'; 'w65: Concurrent session spawned duplicates'

Serialize LP-Maker-Matheus wakes to prevent concurrent sessions. Add a process lock or single-session guard before posting. Each collision costs ~$2 gas and leaves the book partially rebuilt — an unnecessary tax on the fleet's primary liquidity source.

Restart Bear-Yosher, Vulture-Andrew, Option-Writer-Matheus, Stacker-Massimo — all 4 have armed=false, pidAlive=false with live counterparties or active positions waiting. Fix platform watcher process supervision (watchdog/SIGCHLD re-arm) before restarting, or they will die again.

Add watcher process watchdog fleet-wide — 4 agents have experienced watcher death without re-arm this cycle (Bear: 2 deaths, Vulture, option-writer, Stacker). Single-death recovery exists but fails on the second death. This is systemic, not per-agent.

Update Rebalancer-Lior CLAUDE.md to enforce ≥12 USDC lot size when LP-Maker is the sole available counterparty — 4 consecutive expired intents on guaranteed-expiring lots are burning waker tokens with zero chance of fill.

Serialize LP-Maker-Matheus wakes to eliminate concurrent session collisions — w65/w67/w68 each triggered full book rebuilds at ~$2 gas; LP is the fleet hub and session instability cascades to all 5+ dependent agents.

Deploy index-maker and index-taker or formally deprecate — 10 null cycles with no deployment decision made. The segment occupies fleet observer capacity with zero return.

Worse than last run: Bear-Yosher is confirmed crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 392 min offline) — binary source drying up as pre-crash Bear↔Mimic inventory (10 live deals) resolves; Vulture-Andrew also crashed (193 min, 0 open intents, baits 874/875/876 presumably expired); Stacker-Massimo epoc

Bear-Yosher crashed 392 min ago: 10 live Bear↔Mimic BinaryBets are resolving from pre-crash inventory — after these settle, no new binary intents will appear until Bear restarts

Vulture-Andrew dark 193 min: was LP-fill-dependent and LP is now live with 11 open intents — $6.91/5h burn agent is missing active take opportunities

Rebalancer-Lior has a 4 USDC → 0.002466 ETH intent live (58m left) at $1,622/ETH vs LP's ETH ask at $1,643/ETH (~$21 gap, lot size 4 USDC well below LP's ~11.5 USDC floor) — same floor-miss pattern as

Stacker-Massimo: armed+pid both now false with last_wake=242 min ago; epoch 13:30 UTC passed without a new logged wake — missed or crashed at epoch fire

Swing-Nikita 18 USDC → 0.089 sNVDA live at $202.25/sNVDA vs LP sNVDA ask $203.33/sNVDA — ~0.5% spread gap, may expire unfilled

Edge compressed to +11bps floor (down from +35bps at w128); Bear-Yosher crashed 392 min ago — is the binary arb feed (near-decided bets) drying up with Bear offline, and does the current book contain any near-decided binary targets at all?

Confirmed crashed: armed=false, pidAlive=false, 392 min offline, health=stuck — what is the last logged wake, is there any evidence of what caused the crash, and how many of the 10 live Bear↔Mimic BinaryBets remain before the binary market

9th consecutive null cycle, byte-identical state across all runs — is this agent simply never deployed (config/wallet absent) or is there a specific launch blocker that a CTA could resolve?

9th null cycle, dependency on index-maker; same question — is index-taker also never deployed, and does it make sense to keep both in the fleet health metrics if neither will ever run without manual intervention?

Active at 11 open intents ($61.54/5h) — prior noted missing ETH ask and BTC ask; are those two quotes now present in the current book, and did LP fill the Rebalancer-Lior 4 USDC ETH intent (rate $1,622 vs LP ask $1,643) or the Swing-Nikita

Bear crashed 392 min ago — 10 live Bear↔Mimic deals are settling from pre-crash inventory; with Bear down, has Mimic found any new binary intent sources (option-writer-matheus has 16 deals, polymarket-ljuba is active), or is Mimic in passiv

Armed+pid alive (nextFallbackMin=239) but no asset cleared the 2pp relative-gap threshold since w16 (246 min ago) — has SSV (persistent near-leader) moved any closer to the threshold, and is the 2pp gap the right bar given current market co

Last wake 7 min ago found zero audited Option intents — option-writer-matheus was near its -20% drawdown kill at w35 and fires in 13 min; is option-writer still alive and posting new options, or has it hit the drawdown limit and stopped wri

Was at -19.26% drawdown at w35 (0.74% from the -20% kill limit), self-canceled 933/938; fallback fires in 13 min — has drawdown stabilized, widened, or has the -20% kill threshold already been breached in the ~79 min since last wake?

Holds 0.085722 sAAPL at $290.79 entry (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / horizon Jun 12 20:00 UTC); 7 consecutive 'no misprice' wakes — has sAAPL price moved materially toward the $303.75 target or the $277.34 stop in the 230 min since last

Has a 4 USDC → 0.002466 ETH intent live (58m left) at implied $1,622/ETH; LP's ETH ask is $1,643/ETH and LP's minimum lot is ~11.5 USDC — is this the same lot-size floor-miss pattern as the 7 USDC BTC failures (#777/#831/#887), and has the

Epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) has now passed; last_wake=242 min ago is pre-epoch, armed=false, pidAlive=false — did the epoch-triggered wake actually fire (and settle a deal with LP), or did the watcher crash before reaching the epoch, leavi

Has 18 USDC → 0.089 sNVDA intent live (54m left) at $202.25/sNVDA vs LP's sNVDA ask of $203.33/sNVDA (~0.5% gap, ~$0.10/unit short) — is this a genuine bid-ask mismatch that will expire unfilled, or is there a fill path at this spread?

Crashed 193 min ago (armed=false, pidAlive=false, health=stuck); bait sells 874/875/876 (sAAPL 1%, sMSFT 1%, SSV 2.21%) now show 0 open intents — did they expire or get filled, and with LP live at 11 quotes, what specific takes in the curre

Restart bear-yosher: 392 min offline, armed+pid both false — binary market loses its primary intent source once the 10 pre-crash Bear↔Mimic live deals settle

Restart vulture-andrew: 193 min offline; LP now live with 11 open intents (the binding fill constraint is resolved); bait sells 874/875/876 presumably expired and need reposting

Investigate stacker-massimo: epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) passed but no new wake logged (last_wake=242 min pre-epoch); armed+pid both false — determine if epoch fired successfully or if the 10 USDC bu

Fix rebalancer-lior lot sizing: current 4 USDC ETH intent will expire unfilled (LP floor ~11.5 USDC for ETH); agent has now missed BTC ×3 (7 USDC) and ETH ×1 (4 USDC) on the same floor — the CLAUDE.md

Decide index-maker/index-taker fate: 9th null cycle, zero state change across all runs — either deploy them (wallet + config) or remove from fleet health metrics to reduce noise

Check option-writer-matheus drawdown before its 13-min fallback fires: was 0.74% from the -20% kill limit at w35 (79 min ago) — if breached, option-taker-matheus has no viable targets