account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

bestTake=null on both surfaces. No binary bets. All new swap intents require assets not held or are taker-negative. SSV

Summary: Counter remains at 11 — no net-new fills across w192–w199 (+7 consecutive waits since last summary, now 27+ total). The 4 'LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom [Swap] settled' entries in the recent-deals feed are pre-existing history, not new fills this cycle. SSV +100bps gap in w193 was correctly blocked by the direction check (CEX 100bps above oracle means ta

Deal counter frozen at 11 for 27+ wakes. Both surfaces are dry: binary bet book is empty (Bear-Yosher crashed 872 min = zero bet supply), and all swap intents are either directionally blocked, oversized vs 1.7714 SSV balance, or require assets not held. The SSV direction-check rejections in w193–w194 are correct — the agent is not misconfigured, the market simply has no actionable edge right now.

0 binary bets on book (Bear-Yosher 872 min crashed); SSV sell-edge dormant or direction-filtered across w193–w199; best swap near-misses #1280 (+271bps mBTC, unaffordable) and #1294 (+371bps mBTC, unaffordable) confirm no clip-affordable actionable intent; HIGH_WATER 1292→1346 across 7 wakes with ze

Sound — solving the right problem. The direction check blocking w193's +100bps SSV gap is correct: the gap is CEX-vs-oracle (CEX above oracle), meaning taking at oracle-implied price would buy mSSV at a discount to CEX — a loss, not an arb. The agent correctly distinguishes 'gap exists' from 'gap is in the profitable direction.' No churn: waits are genuine waits, not mis-fires. HIGH_WATER tracking

New intent ID > HIGH_WATER that is a binary bet (template hash match)

New mSSV-sell intent with clip ≤ 1.7714 SSV AND implied ≥ ssvCex × 1.001

9 of 11 settled deals; active at 102 deals; posts swaps arb-hunter can snipe when oracle lags CEX

Primary binary bet supply; arb-hunter's highest-edge surface

CRASHED 872 min — zero binary bets on bo

1 of 11 deals historically; posts SSV/ETH swaps occasionally

active, 15 deals — but no current action

Also a pure taker; no complementary maker flow

None confirmed. The SSV +100bps gap in w193 was correctly rejected by the direction check (taking would lose vs CEX). Near-misses #1280 and #1294 were mBTC, structurally unaffordable given balance. No binary bets to miss — book is empty.

Baselines seenIds on first poll — correctly ignores stale intents so no spurious fires on restart

Direction check (implied ≥ ssvCex × 1.001) is mission-critical protection; correctly blocked the w193 false positive

HIGH_WATER filtering prunes already-seen intents efficiently; updated each wake

30-min fallback ensures agent re-evaluates even in a quiet book

Zero-LLM, fast polling, dual-surface coverage

SSV_BALANCE hardcoded at 1.7714 — stale if SSV holdings change between script edits

No fire condition for 'binary bet approaching expiry on existing book' — only fires on NEW bets appearing, misses near-decided bets posted before watcher armed

ORACLE_SYMBOL map only covers BTC/ETH; SSV uses its own path (getSsvCex) but stock oracles (sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL) have no CEX feed at all — watcher correctly skips

Replace hardcoded `const SSV_BALANCE = 1.7714` with a dynamic balance fetch from belt at baseline time — a stale hardcoded balance will silently prevent SSV arbs once holdings drift.

Binary bet surface dead — Bear-Yosher crashed 872 min

Arb-hunter's primary edge (near-decided binary bets) requires an active binary bet poster. Bear-Yosher is the only one and has been crashed 872 min. Zero binary bets on book across all 7 recent wakes.

Recover Bear-Yosher (or any other binary bet poster). Until then, arb-hunter's primary surface is structurally offline — not the agent's fault.

SSV_BALANCE hardcoded — stale balance silently blocks SSV arbs

wake_script_source hardcodes `SSV_BALANCE = 1.7714` for the clip-size check. If balance drifts (fills, fees), this value becomes wrong and will either over-block or under-block future SSV-sell opportunities.

Fetch balance from belt at watcher baseline and store in a let variable; refresh periodically or on each intent check.

No wake trigger for near-expiry binary bets already on book at arm time

Watcher only fires on NEW binary bet intent IDs (> HIGH_WATER). If a near-decided binary bet was posted before the watcher armed, it will never fire a wake for it — agent only catches it on the 30-min fallback.

Add a periodic scan for binary bets already in seenIds that are within NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC of expiry — fire wake if any cross the threshold.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Summary: 940 min dark (+68 min vs prior 872 min). Hard crash unchanged: armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 token spend since w41 (Jun 10 11:17 UTC). Deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 (~00:58 UTC Jun 11) passed ~15h ago; settled_deals still at 17 — deal 75 has NOT settled, remaining 'live' alongside 2 other BinaryBet/custom Mimic-Ljuba deals. Three live deals, capital lo

Deal 75 (BinaryBet vs Mimic-Ljuba, BTC 3.78% below $63,500 strike at crash — in-the-money) expired ~00:58 UTC Jun 11, ~15h ago, but shows 'live' not 'settled'; settled_deals frozen at 17. All 3 live Mimic-Ljuba deals (2× BinaryBet, 1× custom) remain unsettled with USDC locked. Agent cannot act; no watcher is running to trigger settlement.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false since w41 Jun 10 11:17 UTC; DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS (1781139624-300)*1000 never fired — agent died 13.5h before trigger; 4h fallback (~15:17 UTC Jun 10) also never fired; settled_deals=17 unchanged across two summary cycles; 3 deals show status 'live' not 'settled'

Reasoning was sound during its active run (disciplined exactly-one-resting invariant, deal-75 near-expiry anchor, adverse-move guards). Now moot — no agent is running. The crash is not a logic failure; the watcher process died and cannot self-resurrect.

Intent 869 fill/expiry (expired — open_intents now 0)

DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS: (1781139624-300)*1000 — MISSED: agent dead 13.5h before trigger

4h fallback (~15:17 UTC Jun 10) — MISSED: pidAlive=false, fallback never armed

All 3 live deals are bear-yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba; Mimic-Ljuba is the sole realized counterparty across 17 settled deals

ok (health ok, 16 deals active) — but ca

Takes near-decided BinaryBets; could have been a counterparty on new bets bear-yosher can no longer post

ok (health ok, 11 deals) — irrelevant wh

Oracle-fair swap counterparty for tech-basket buys; bear-yosher has no USDC free to swap while locked

ok (102 deals, active) — irrelevant whil

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book since w41 crash; additionally, deal 75 in-the-money settlement (BTC ~3.78% below strike at last known price) is a missed realized gain — locked in 'live' state for ~15h with no mechanism to claim.

DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS anchor was correct: 5-min pre-expiry trigger for in-time settlement call

Adverse-move guards (ETH/BTC +1.5%) align with mission halt condition

New BinaryBet scan fires on actionable book events only (not 'book non-empty')

4h fallback was appropriate cadence for a patient bear position

No self-resurrection path: if pidAlive=false, no fallback can re-arm — watcher design assumes the process survives

No external watchdog or supervisor to restart on crash; the 4h fallback is only reachable if the process is alive

Add a supervisor / process-monitor layer (or core SDK heartbeat) that detects pidAlive=false and restarts the watcher process — the script logic is sound but useless if the process is dead.

Hard crash since Jun 10 11:17 UTC — 940 min dark, cannot self-recover

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false. All 5 triggers in the wake script (intent 869 expiry, new BinaryBet, ETH/BTC adverse, DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS, 4h fallback) fired or expired while the process was dead — none reached the agent.

Manual restart of bear-yosher; on restart, first action should be settle/claim deal 75 and audit the other 2 live Mimic-Ljuba deals.

Deal 75 settlement missed — in-the-money BinaryBet unclaimed ~15h past betExpiry

BTC was 3.78% below $63,500 strike at last agent wake (w36, Jun 10 08:57 UTC). betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed ~00:58 UTC Jun 11. settled_deals unchanged at 17 across two cycles — deal 75 shows 'live', not 'settled'. USDC locked.

On restart: call settle for deal 75 immediately; verify whether the in-the-money outcome can still be claimed on-chain.

No permissionless settlement path for expired in-the-money deals

If settlement requires an agent-side call and the agent is crashed, USDC remains locked indefinitely in 'live' deals. Deal 75 is ~15h past expiry with no on-chain resolution. Same risk applies to the 2 other live Mimic-Ljuba deals.

Implement a permissionless settle entrypoint (or a fleet-level settler bot) that any agent — or an external keeper — can call once betExpiry passes, so capital is not permanently stranded by a single agent crash.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 19th consecutive null cycle — focus question answer is NO, again. State is bit-for-bit identical to prior summary: address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No wallet provisioning, no new watcher state, no wake activity detected this cycle. Not a crash; never initialized.

index-maker has produced 0 tokens across 0 wakes across all tracked time. The unblock is operator-side only: wallet provisioning + watcher deployment. Nothing in the agent's own logic can self-start from this state.

wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0 — no evidence of any initialization event across 19 observed cycles

N/A — no reasoning has ever run. No wake script exists to evaluate.

MISSING: no watcher deployed — nothing fires this agent

MISSING: no wallet provisioned — agent cannot act even if woken

index-taker's sole mission is to take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — exact complement to index-maker's LONG publishing role

unknown — index-taker is also health=unk

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never woken, cannot evaluate missed intents

wake_script_source=null — no watcher script exists at all

No wallet to fund any intent even if script were deployed

Operator must provision wallet and deploy watcher before any script quality assessment is possible — this is prerequisite work, not a script tuning question

Wallet never provisioned

address=null across 19 observed cycles. Agent cannot post intents, hold inventory, or pay gas without a funded wallet.

Operator: provision and fund an EOA for index-maker; inject address into agent config

Watcher never deployed

wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false. No autonomous wake mechanism exists.

Operator: author and deploy current.ts for index-maker; arm the watcher process

index-taker initialization unknown

index-maker's only known counterparty (index-taker) is also health=unknown — even if index-maker came online, there may be no taker for its LONG IndexBasket intents.

Verify index-taker initialization in parallel with index-maker; both must be live for any deal to form

index-maker has produced 0 tokens across 0 wakes across all tracked time. The unblock is operator-side only: wallet provisioning + watcher deployment. Nothing in the agent's own logic can self-start from this state.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 19th consecutive null cycle — zero delta vs prior summary. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Step-1 focus question answered: no operator action has initialized this agent or index-maker this cycle. Funnel at ~1318+ intents with zero IndexBasket intents anywhere; index-taker remains structurally inert and canno

Index-taker has 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, and no wake script — it has never run. Index-maker is in the same state, so even a fully initialized index-taker would find zero IndexBasket intents to audit or take. Both agents require simultaneous operator initialization to unblock the pair.

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, 0 lifetime USD; index-maker identically uninitialized; zero IndexBasket intents in a funnel of 1318+ total intents across all other templates

N/A — agent has never executed a reasoning cycle. No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: operator must deploy wake script and initialize the agent process — nothing fires without it

MISSING: index-maker must also be initialized to supply LONG IndexBasket intents for this agent to audit and take

Sole intended counterparty — posts LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker takes the SHORT side of

also uninitialized; armed=false, pidAliv

none — zero IndexBasket intents exist anywhere in the funnel; no takeable opportunity has appeared across all 19 observed cycles

wake_script_source is null — no script has ever been deployed

Cannot evaluate cadence, fallback, or book-polling logic without a script

Operator must deploy a wake script that polls for open IndexBasket intents, fetches verified source from the indexer, runs audit-custom-deal, and crosses only on ACCEPT — but this is blocked until index-maker is initialized first to supply

Agent never initialized — no wake script, no process

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false across 19 consecutive observer cycles. The agent cannot self-start.

Operator deploys wake script and starts the agent process. Should be done simultaneously with index-maker initialization, since without index-maker there are zero IndexBasket intents to take.

Index pair (index-maker + index-taker) is a dead market — both sides uninitialized

Neither agent has ever run. The IndexBasket template has 0 intents in a funnel of 1318+ across all other templates. Initializing index-taker alone produces a taker with nothing to take.

Treat initialization as an atomic pair operation: deploy both agents together. Index-maker posts LONG IndexBasket; index-taker audits and takes SHORT. Neither is useful without the other.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Cluster B expiry routine + SSV oracle 2.12→2.14 made #1334 land at 0bps (free option risk if SSV continues rising).

cluster C pre-expiry ts 1781146752 (~02:59 UTC) or new fillable swap | 1.5h fallback

Summary: Fleet's sole functioning liquidity hub. BTC ask gap RESOLVED in w88 (posted #1278 at +15.1bps, 12/12 full book achieved and held through w89/w90) — the key open question from last run is answered. Open intents consolidated 15→11 confirming legacy dup cleanup is complete. Deals ticked 95→96 (+1); Arb-Hunter-Tom resurrection adds a net-new active counterparty.

96 deals, 12/12 full book, $11.85 realized PnL on $700 base — LP is performing its mission. BTC ask gap closed in w88; 15→11 dup consolidation confirms book is clean. The one active threat is concurrent-session inversion recurring on every oracle move, causing arb bleed and wasted wake cycles rather than fills.

12/12 quotes posted; 6 active counterparties (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, 0xBd6a…9863, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita); deal velocity limited by taker arrivals not LP quality. w85–w90 show 0 fills across multiple wakes despite tight quotes — thin taker side, not mispricing.

Sound and on-mission. w88 correctly diagnosed concurrent-session inversion (cancelled #1272 SSV +9.8bps inverted, #1274 dup sNVDA bid, #1273 dup SSV ask) and resolved it in one pass, achieving 12/12 full book. volTerm adjustments are quantitative (ETH 43.8bps, BTC 37.9bps, SSV 49.5bps) and mission-appropriate. Not churning — each wake either fills a gap, clears a stale quote, or correctly conclude

Cluster expiry guard: EXPIRY_FIRE_TS_SEC=1781133228 (~23:18 UTC) fires 5min before #1281–#1286 cluster expires

New fillable swap: newMatches() detects net-new intents where posterWants ∈ HOLD set

MISSING: inversion/spread-check trigger — concurrent-session inversions detected only at next poll (60s lag), causing arb bleed per event

Active arb taker; resurrection confirmed armed=true/pidAlive=true; appears 8× in recent deal list including w84 arb fill

Most frequent recent counterparty (~8 fills in tail); health=stuck but still settling LP intents

5 recent fills but current 4.96 USDC intent is sub-LP-minimum lot — won't clear until lior posts ≥12 USDC

2 recent fills; w23 20 USDC intent on book (18 min left) is above minimum

External wallet; 7 fills in recent tail — reliable taker source outside named fleet

Rebalancer-Lior's 4.96 USDC→BTC intent is sub-LP-minimum and correctly skipped. Swing-Nikita's 20 USDC intent (w23, 18 min left) is above minimum — watcher's newMatches() should fire on it if posted after last wake. No evidence of LP missing a fillable above-threshold intent.

Expiry cluster guard pins exact ts 1781133228 (5min before #1281–#1286 cluster) — no stale quotes

newMatches() on HOLD set: only fires on intents LP can profitably fill, not its own stale posts

60s poll interval — not sub-minute; patient cadence appropriate for 22-min avg gap

No oracle price guards (per playbook rule — avoids loop storms)

50min fallback ensures watcher doesn't go dark between clusters

No spread/inversion check: concurrent-session inversions (flagged w84, w87, w88) are discovered only at next 60s poll tick, allowing ~1min of arb exposure per e

Add an inversion detector in the watch loop: if any own bid's price ≥ own ask's price for the same asset (readable from open intents), fireWake('spread inverted — concurrent session detected') immediately rather than waiting up to 60s. This

Concurrent-session inversion recurs on every oracle move

w84, w87, w88 all report concurrent session posting inverted bids when oracle moves positive. Each event costs ~$0.076 arb loss plus a cleanup wake. Root: two watcher sessions posting simultaneously create crossed spreads. Watcher detects it reactively at next poll (up to 60s exposure).

Add inversion check in runWatchLoop body: compare own bid vs own ask prices per asset from readOpenIntents; fireWake immediately on cross. Also investigate why two concurrent watcher sessions arise — may need PID lock enforcement in armWatcher.

Token cost critical: $76.51/5h = 53.4% of pool

96 deals settling at $0.82/wake average; 87 wakes × $0.82 ≈ $71 but 5h cost is $76.51 with 80/87 repeat wakes. At this burn rate LP's token pool (~$143 implied at 53.4%) exhausts in ~5h. Repeat-wake rate 92% (80/87) suggests most wakes are maintenance not fills.

Core/SDK: add per-agent token budget cap and alert threshold. Agent-side: w85 correctly no-ops when nothing actionable — ensure repeat-wake suppression logic is consistently applied to avoid unnecessary LLM calls on zero-action wakes.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

new BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge (crypto 24/7, stocks 13:30–20:00 UTC Mon–Fri), or 60min fallback

Summary: The 3 Bear↔Mimic deals (2× BinaryBet, 1× custom) confirmed oracle-settled with no agent action required — Mimic has reported zero live deals since w63, validating the prior conclusion. Wakes w65–w69 are more empty-board holds: ≥3pp edge floor unmet, no BinaryBet supply, $63.62 USDC intact; self-originated intent #1088 expired unfilled per w69. Watcher is ARM

Mimic is correctly idle — 12 consecutive hold wakes (w57–w69) all cite an empty BinaryBet board; $63.62 USDC is fully intact with zero exposure. The oracle-settled all 3 Bear↔Mimic deals without agent participation (zero live deals since w63). The mission is not broken — the market is: Bear-Yosher (sole BinaryBet source) has been dark 872 min and no substitute has emerged.

All 16 settled deals trace to Bear-Yosher (3 listed in settled_deals_detail: 2× BinaryBet, 1× custom). No BinaryBet intents on board w57–w69 (10+ consecutive empty wakes). Self-posted intent #1088 expired unfilled (low taker demand, per w69). No other fleet agent posts BinaryBets.

Sound discipline — ≥3pp edge floor and one-deliberate-move rule enforced consistently across all wakes. However, after 12 consecutive empty-board wakes, Mimic is correctly waiting but solving the wrong sub-problem: its watcher and logic assume BinaryBet supply will return, not that the supply chain itself is broken. The gap between 'correctly patient' and 'mission-paused indefinitely' is now 14+ h

new BinaryBet intent appears in open intents feed (newMatches on BINARY_BET_TEMPLATE hash)

60-min fallback (doing all the work since w57 — trigger has not fired once in 12 wakes)

MISSING: no trigger for binary intents from arb-hunter-tom or polymarket-ljuba as substitute sources

MISSING: no hook on Bear-Yosher revival or any other BinaryBet poster going live

sole historical BinaryBet source; dark 872 min with watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false

takes near-decided binaries and could post BinaryBets Mimic could mirror; 11 settled deals, health ok — but no evidence it posts binary supp

posts small-shade binaries (mission confirmed); 2 deals, health ok — thin but nonzero BinaryBet poster

None — board was empty of BinaryBets across all wakes w57–w69. No takeable binary intents existed. Self-originated intent #1088 expired unfilled, confirming thin taker demand even for Mimic's own posts.

Fires correctly on new BinaryBet by templateHash match — zero false positives

60-min fallback prevents permanent sleep; baseline seen-set initialization is clean

Zero-LLM watcher; can't fire on 'book non-empty' generically

60-min fallback is now the only signal path — the newBet trigger has not fired once across 12 wakes; the watcher is functionally a 60-min cron

No awareness of polymarket-ljuba or arb-hunter-tom as secondary BinaryBet sources

No signal on Bear-Yosher coming back online — the one event that would unblock Mimic

Add polymarket-ljuba's address as a secondary BinaryBet watcher target so newMatches also catches binaries from the one other active poster; this gives the event-driven trigger a realistic chance of firing while Bear remains dark.

BinaryBet supply chain broken — Bear-Yosher (sole reliable source) dark 872 min

All 16 of Mimic's settled deals originate from Bear-Yosher. With Bear offline, Mimic has zero inbound flow. Polymarket-ljuba (2 deals) and arb-hunter-tom (11 deals) are the only active agents with any binary adjacency but neither is currently posting BinaryBets Mimic can mirror.

Revive Bear-Yosher (scope: bear-yosher agent owner) or activate a second BinaryBet-posting agent; as interim, ensure polymarket-ljuba's posting cadence produces at least one binary Mimic can see each cycle.

Mission bottleneck: watcher and logic assume supply returns; no adaptation after 12+ empty wakes

Mimic's CLAUDE.md and watcher are built around Bear-Yosher as sole source. After 14+ hours of zero supply, the agent has no fallback behavior (e.g., post its own binary based on oracle, or mirror polymarket-ljuba). Intent #1088 was one self-post attempt but expired unfilled.

Update CLAUDE.md to add polymarket-ljuba and arb-hunter-tom as valid copy-sources; update watcher to also match their addresses on BINARY_BET_TEMPLATE intents.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

SSV decisive momentum leader both lookbacks. No SSV seller at fair price. Posting 8h intent sizes to liftable depth (~25

intent-1342 resolve / new SSV seller / US open 13:30 UTC / momentum ≥2pp shift / 9h fallback

Summary: Prior baseline-staleness concern (flagged at w17, ~428 min ago) is now resolved — agent executed aggressively through w18–w22, building SSV position to 8 tokens on a 10pp+ momentum signal (strongest in 22 wakes per w22 log). Portfolio at w22: $75.15 USDC + $7.44 BTC + $17.68 SSV. Open intent #1318 (25 USDC → 11.31 SSV at $2.21) is a resting order posted at w

Agent is healthy and executing correctly. The 10pp+ SSV momentum signal confirmed across 4 consecutive wakes (w19–w22) makes the prior staleness concern obsolete. The live risk is narrow: intent #1318 at $2.21/SSV has no oracle-price check in the watcher — a post-w22 SSV price move makes the posted rate quietly wrong without triggering a re-wake until expiry at ~08:24 UTC.

All 5 settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus (3), Rebalancer-Lior (1), LP-Maker again (1). Intent #1318 is a resting 25 USDC→11.31 SSV bid waiting for a SSV seller; no SSV sellers currently on book (watcher has not fired on newMatches). Market's fault — not agent's.

Sound and on-mission. w19–w22 show disciplined signal validation (fast + slow lookbacks both above 2pp threshold), momentum confirmation across multiple timeframes, and incremental position building with BTC laggard trimmed at oracle. No re-deriving-in-place churn. The one blind spot is rate-drift: intent is posted at a fixed $2.21/SSV with no re-pricing mechanism until expiry or a fallback wake f

intent #1318 resolved (filled or expired via ownIntentResolved poll every 60s)

new SSV seller appears on book (newMatches against isSSVSeller filter)

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (effectiveDeadline = min(8h fallback, US_OPEN_MS))

MISSING: oracle price drift check — if SSV moves >1–2pp from $2.21 since w22, no early re-wake fires; intent silently mispriced until expiry

Sole active hub, 8 open intents, 3 of 5 momentum deals settled here; could hold SSV inventory

ok — active, 100 deals, reposts frequent

Settled 1 swap with momentum-nikita; DCA-style so may periodically give SSV for USDC

Takes SSV intents (buys SSV), doesn't give SSV — opposite direction to intent #1318

Fades dislocations — if SSV is stretched above trailing avg, swing-nikita may sell/give SSV

None identified. Arb-Hunter SSV gap (flagged in Step-1) is directionally opposite — Arb-Hunter takes SSV (wants SSV) not gives it, so no cross with intent #1318. Watcher is polling for new SSV sellers every 60s; if one appeared, it would have fired.

ownIntentResolved catches fill or expiry without waiting for fallback

newMatches + isSSVSeller filter directly serves the mission (take the next SSV seller)

US market open trigger correct — agent must re-rank with stocks when equities open

effectiveDeadline = min(fallback, US_OPEN_MS) cleanly prevents oversleeping past stocks

60s poll cadence appropriate — not sub-minute spam, actionable on book events

No oracle price drift check: intent #1318 posted at $2.21/SSV 25 min ago with no mechanism to detect SSV moving materially; if SSV is now $2.35, the resting bid

Watcher baseline (seenIntents) is set once at first loop — if watcher restarts mid-session, seenIntents resets and new-seller logic skips one tick

Add an oracle price check each loop iteration: if abs(currentSSVPrice - 2.21) / 2.21 > 0.015, call fireWake('SSV oracle drifted X% from posted rate — re-price intent'). This is the single highest-value change: it converts a 7.5h blind wait

Intent #1318 has no oracle-drift guard

Watcher polls for fill/expiry and new sellers but never compares current SSV oracle price to the posted $2.21 rate. A >1.5% move since w22 (25 min ago) makes the intent silently stale until it expires at ~08:24 UTC or fallback fires at ~08:30 UTC — wasting up to 7.5h of potential re-pricing.

In runWatchLoop body, after fetching belt: fetch SSV oracle price, compute drift from 2.21; if |drift| > 0.015 call fireWake with reason string. One oracle read per 60s loop tick.

seenIntents baseline resets on watcher restart

seenIntents is initialized to null and set on first loop tick. If the process restarts mid-session (as happened at w15), the first tick re-baselines and skips firing on any sellers already on book — a one-tick delay in a fast market.

Persist seenIntents to data/wake/seen-intents.json on each update and reload on startup; fall back to empty set if file missing (fire on all current sellers at first tick, which is acceptable).

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Cheap optionality: tight-to-the-money put with 24h tail, thin premium on a volatile stock (sNVDA). Probability of 0.20 d

All 4 settled deals trace to option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). Writer's nextFallbackMin=1144 confirms ~19h of silence ahead; 0 audited options on book for 201 min. Taker watcher polls every 60s and has not fired — book is genuinely empty.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f…ad63) — detected via 60s poll of open book

Settle window: nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956, ~17:37 UTC June 11 — 5 min before deal #118 expiry)

23h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1141, fires ~16:52 UTC June 11 — ~45 min before settle window)

Sole option supplier; all 4 deals sourced here. Writer is resting (~19h nextFallbackMin=1144) — next posts expected around w27/w28.

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents — could theoretically compete for the same intents, but does not supply options

Fires on new audited-hash option intents — exactly the signal this taker needs; can't fire on generic book activity

Settle-window trigger (MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS) aligns the 23h fallback with deal #118 expiry — agent wakes just before settlement, not randomly

First-poll baseline (seenIntentIds=null guard) prevents false-fires on stale intents already taken

60s cadence appropriate for an option book that posts infrequently

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to deal #118's window. After deals #118/#119 settle, any future deal taken will have a different expiry — the settle-

Hardcoded settle-window timestamp goes stale after new deals

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 targets deal #118's expiry. Once #118/#119 settle and the agent takes a new option (different expiry), this check will never fire (past timestamp) — settle-timing precision is lost for all future deals.

Dynamically derive MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS each poll: read open deals, take min(expiry) - 300s. Store in a variable updated each loop iteration.

Single-supplier dependency on option-writer-matheus

4/4 deals from one counterparty. Writer is in a ~19h rest cycle (nextFallbackMin=1144). If writer crashes or shifts mission, taker has zero supply. No other agent currently posts audited-hash options.

Encourage a second option writer on the same audited template hash, or have option-writer-matheus post smaller batches more frequently so the taker has a steadier flow.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Both engines correctly positioned for calm market. Option-writing pause proven by 7-time no-demand signal from wakes 26–

vol spike ≥1% OR new buyer option intent OR 120-min fallback

Summary: Engine 1 pause now extends to 27+ consecutive monitor-only wakes (w38 pause → w65 now, up from 23+ at last summary). Four new wakes (w62–w65) all confirm the same state: no vol spike ≥1% (w62 explicitly logs max move −3.427% below baseline — drawdown is deeper than at prior summary, not recovering), no ranking rotation (inventory 69.6% / USDC 30.4% — perfect

ETH/BTC drawdown deepened to −3.427% (w62) — further from the 1% vol-spike re-entry trigger than at last summary. Zero buyer option intents have appeared since w38. Engine 1 is in a self-reinforcing deadlock: it won't write without a buyer signal, and the only natural counterparty (option-taker-matheus, 4 settled deals) takes from written options rather than posting purchaser intents, so that signal may never arrive.

17 settled deals total; only 1 option-settled deal visible (custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus); 7 consecutive unfilled option writes (w26–w37) proved buyer demand absent; w63–w65 confirm zero premium buyers; no buyer-side option intents observed across 27+ wakes

Sound on self-diagnosis — the agent correctly tracks all three resume conditions each wake and holds discipline. However, it is solving the wrong problem on the vol-spike trigger: the watcher resets its baseline to watcher-start prices on every restart, so it measures intra-session volatility (currently −3.4% from session baseline) rather than recovery from the Engine 1 pause level. Additionally,

Vol spike ≥1% from watcher-start baseline (60s poll)

New buyer option intent (kind='unknown', 2×USDC legs) on readOpenIntents

MISSING: recovery from Engine-1-pause-point baseline (watcher tracks intra-session moves only — baseline resets on restart)

Only settled option counterparty (1 custom deal); sNVDA #118/#119 expire today — may seek fresh options if capital frees

Fills swap legs of Engine 2 contrarian buys; counterparty for 1 confirmed Swap settled deal

None directly attributable — Engine 1 correctly identified zero buyer demand across 27 wakes. sNVDA #118 (call, 17:37 UTC) and #119 (put, 18:31 UTC) expire today; if option-taker-matheus settles these and seeks replacement exposure, Engine 1 is not positioned to capitalize because it requires a buyer-intent signal before writing, not after.

Fires on vol spike ≥1% — the right signal for Engine 1's contrarian thesis

Monitors open intents for buyer demand — correct conceptual trigger

120-min fallback appropriate for a patient, once-per-hour cadence agent

Zero-LLM watcher, can't false-fire on book-non-empty

Vol-spike baseline resets to watcher-start prices on every restart — currently reads −3.427% below session start, meaning Engine 1 resumes only if the next 1% m

Buyer option intent filter (kind='unknown', 2×USDC legs) likely never fires: option-taker-matheus's normal flow is to take from existing written options, not to

Replace the buyer-intent gate with a time-since-last-write gate: if Engine 1 has been paused ≥N wakes (e.g., 30) without a vol spike, write one test option at a conservative premium and observe if option-taker-matheus settles it — break the

Vol-spike baseline resets on watcher restart — masks cumulative drawdown

armWatcher baseline is set at first poll of each session. w62 logs 'max move −3.427%' — this is from today's watcher-start baseline, not the w38 pause-point baseline. The ETH/BTC 4%+ drawdown since pause means Engine 1 resumes only if markets make a further 1% intraday move from the current depresse

Persist Engine-1 pause-point prices in agent state (e.g., state.engine1PauseBaselines). Read these in the watcher and compare current prices against them, not against watcher-start prices.

Circular deadlock: buyer-intent resume condition is structurally unreachable

Engine 1 paused because no buyers appeared for 7 written options. The resume gate 'new buyer option intent on-chain' requires option-taker-matheus (sole natural counterparty) to post a purchase intent — but option-taker-matheus takes from existing written options, it does not post independent buy in

Replace or augment the buyer-intent gate with a probe strategy: after N consecutive monitor-only wakes (already 27), write one option at a conservative premium as a demand probe, then re-evaluate. Alternatively, gate on option-taker-matheus USDC balance growing (proxy for settled deal cash available

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

sAAPL stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75) hit; new binary/option intent; fallback Jun11 20:00 UTC

Summary: Still holding 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / horizon Jun12 20:00 UTC). Silence extended from 712 min (prior summary) to 778 min — 66 additional minutes / ~66 more 60s polls — with no stop or forward fire, confirming price has stayed within bounds the entire added interval. nextFallbackMin jumped from 108 → 1023, meaning the watche

Silence is correct: 778 min of no stop/forward fires means price is within bounds. The next mandatory wake is the Jun11 20:00 UTC intermediate fallback (~1023 min = ~17h), designed to scout exit-swap makers before the Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon. Exit approval already executed (w26, tx 0xf14583…). Only open question is whether the Jun11 fallback wake will re-arm correctly for Jun12.

2 settled deals lifetime; 0 open intents; 18/26 wakes found no mispriced binary/option to take — thin book, not agent churn. Agent is correctly in hold-and-monitor mode on its sAAPL swap position.

Sound and solving the right problem. Each wake correctly checks oracle price vs stop/forward, scans for new binary/option intents, and records state. Edge-erosion commentary (1.5–3.1% convergence noted in w22–w24) shows the agent understands the distribution is pricing in convergence — it's not confused, it's patient. No churn.

nowTs ≥ horizonTs (1781294400 = Jun12 20:00 UTC)

new binary/option intent appears on book (delta scan every 60s)

fallback: Jun11 20:00 UTC (1781208000) intermediate assessment — nextFallbackMin=1023

Primary exit-swap counterparty for sAAPL → USDC delivered swap; 102 deals, deep sAAPL inventory, active

Could take sAAPL if its target portfolio underweights it, but mission is DCA-in not spot exit

Writes sAAPL options polymarket-ljuba could take, but no new option intents on book per recent wakes

None verified. Every wake scanned the book for binary/option intents and found nothing mispriced vs Polymarket distribution. The sNVDA options #118/#119 expiring today (noted in fleet focus) could be candidates, but no wake flagged them as mispriced — either they were priced fairly or the option-taker-matheus already captured them.

Fires on the three structural events that matter for this position: stop hit, forward hit, horizon expiry — zero false positives possible

Delta-scans open intents every 60s for new binary/option opportunities — correct for a taker mission

Reads horizonTs from state.json with hardcoded fallback (1781294400) — robust to cold-start

Jun11 20:00 UTC intermediate fallback (24h before expiry) gives a maker-scouting window before the deadline — smart two-stage design

Pre-approval of sAAPL for exit (w26) executed proactively — exit path unblocked

FALLBACK_MS is computed once at script start from Date.now() — after the Jun11 fallback fires and the agent re-arms, the new watcher must hardcode or re-derive

After the Jun11 20:00 UTC intermediate wake fires, ensure the re-armed watcher sets fallbackMs explicitly to (1781294400 - nowTs) * 1000 (the Jun12 horizon) rather than re-running the Max(Jun11-now, 4h) formula — otherwise the final horizon

Re-arm after Jun11 fallback may mis-target Jun12 horizon

FALLBACK_MS = Math.max((1781208000 - Date.now()/1000)*1000, 4*3600_000). Once Jun11 20:00 UTC passes, this formula yields a negative → floor of 4h, not the remaining time to Jun12 20:00 UTC. If the wake at Jun11 20:00 UTC re-arms with the same script unchanged, the next fallback fires at Jun12 00:00

In the Jun11 wake's re-arm logic (CLAUDE.md or wake script template), set fallbackMs = (1781294400 - Math.floor(Date.now()/1000)) * 1000 with a 1h floor — targeting the actual expiry, not the intermediate checkpoint.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: Trigger still has NOT fired. nextFallbackMin 731→663 (~68 min elapsed since prior summary), watcher armed/pidAlive — live countdown confirmed. US stock open (13:30 UTC Jun 11) is ~10.6 h away; 14:00 UTC fallback is ~11.1 h away. 15 settled deals unchanged; no capital deployed since BTC #1294 filled at +4% premium in w45. Correctly idle — sMSFT approve + trim

Nothing actionable changed since prior summary — only 68 min of countdown elapsed. nextFallbackMin 731→663, watcher armed, 15 deals stable. The agent is correctly time-gated on US stock open (13:30 UTC Jun 11) to unlock sMSFT trim → BTC DCA.

Capital fully committed after BTC #1294 filled at +4% premium (w45, 06-10T23:41); next slice requires sMSFT trim which is blocked until stock market opens at 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (~10.6 h from ~03:00 UTC current)

Sound and on-mission. The premium escalation ladder (oracle → +1.47% → +2.07% → +3% → +4%) across w39–w45 was disciplined and cleared BTC #1294. Current idle state is correct — the gap is time-gated, not a reasoning failure or churn.

Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS (2026-06-11T13:30:00Z) — fires wake for sMSFT approve + trim + BTC DCA

Absolute fallback at 2026-06-11T14:00:00Z (~663 min remaining) as safety net

4 of last 7 settled deals; primary swap liquidity for BTC/ETH/sMSFT

1 recent deal; fast taker that clears near-oracle prices efficiently

1 recent deal; overlaps BTC/ETH but mission is momentum rotation, not patient DCA — episodic fit

None — agent has no free capital and no open intents until stock-open trigger fires. Unmeasurable while correctly idle.

Pins wake to the exact stock-open timestamp (2026-06-11T13:30:00Z) — correct for a time-gated DCA agent, not a generic poll

14:00 UTC absolute fallback ensures wake even if the open-edge poll is missed

60 s poll cadence catches the open edge without sub-minute spam

Zero-LLM; PID written for liveness checks

FALLBACK_MS is computed once at script-load time via Date.now() — a process restart after 13:55 UTC silently floors the fallback to 5 min, potentially firing be

Compute FALLBACK_MS as the absolute difference `new Date('2026-06-11T14:00:00Z').getTime() - Date.now()` without the `Math.max(..., 5 * 60_000)` floor — or pass the absolute epoch directly to armWatcher — so a late restart doesn't collapse

Fallback window degrades on script restart

FALLBACK_MS = Math.max(14:00UTC - Date.now(), 5 min) is evaluated once at load time. If the watcher process restarts after 13:55 UTC, the fallback floors to 5 min and fires almost immediately, potentially racing the stock-open branch or firing before sMSFT price is available.

Pass the absolute fallback epoch to armWatcher rather than a relative ms computed at load time, so any restart inherits the correct remaining window.

Nothing actionable changed since prior summary — only 68 min of countdown elapsed. nextFallbackMin 731→663, watcher armed, 15 deals stable. The agent is correctly time-gated on US stock open (13:30 UTC Jun 11) to unlock sMSFT trim → BTC DCA.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Summary: Confirmed crashed: armed=false, pidAlive=false, last wake w27 at 12:05 UTC Jun 10 (790 min ago). Prior summary had it armed for epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC Jun 10). The Jun 10 13:30 UTC window passed ~85 min after w27; no wake fired — the watcher process died between 12:05 and 13:30 UTC Jun 10. Entire Jun 10 market session (13:30–16:00 UTC) was missed. Now J

The Jun 10 13:30 UTC buy trigger was missed entirely — watcher died ~85 min before it would have fired. It is now Jun 11 and the hardcoded epochs are stale; even a restart leaves inMarket() permanently false. Two full market sessions lost. Needs script update + restart.

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 (2026-06-10T13:30Z) and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 (2026-06-10T16:00Z) are hardcoded in current.ts. Both are in the past as of Jun 11. Watcher PID died after w27 at 12:05 UTC Jun 10 — no w28 fired. settled_deals_detail=[], metrics.tokens_5h_usd=0 confirm zero activity

w27 reasoning was sound (sell-side reappeared, reset consecutive_misses, re-approved USDC) and the watcher was correctly constructed. The failure is structural: single-day hardcoded epochs make the script brittle — good logic written for one calendar date. The agent correctly held pre-market on prior wakes; it didn't solve the wrong problem, but the script expired.

armWatcher fires at MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH (1781098200 = Jun 10 13:30 UTC) — now stale, permanently in the past

fireWake on sweepable sNVDA sell-side during inMarket() window — inMarket() returns false permanently

30-min fallback during market hours — unreachable since inMarket() is false

MISSING: dynamic next-market-open calculation (should compute next 13:30 UTC ET day, not hardcode a single date)

Both prior settled deals were with LP-Maker-Matheus; it holds sNVDA inventory and is awake with 9 open intents including sNVDA pairs

Unmeasurable for Jun 10 13:30–16:00 UTC session (watcher was blind — process dead). LP-Maker-Matheus had sNVDA open intents during that window based on fleet activity, so at least one 0.50 USDC slice was likely available. Jun 11 market session (ongoing) entirely unserved.

Fires at exact market-open epoch — correct cadence for a patient stacker

Oracle drift check (>0.5%) triggers bid refresh — protects against stale pricing

Sweepable sell-side detection with cost cap (SWEEP_MAX_USDC=12) and price cap (oracle×1.005) is tight and on-mission

Pre-market sleep until open+2 min safety buffer — no wasted polling

30-min fallback during market hours is appropriate for this mission's patience

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH are hardcoded to a single calendar date (2026-06-10) — script expires every day at 16:00 UTC

No recovery path: if the watcher crashes pre-open, there is no self-heal or re-arm from the agent's main loop

Replace hardcoded epoch constants with a dynamic `nextMarketOpen()` function that computes the next 13:30 UTC weekday epoch from Date.now() — one line of arithmetic. This makes the script reusable across sessions and eliminates the daily st

Hardcoded single-day market epochs — script expires nightly

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 are fixed to 2026-06-10. As of Jun 11, inMarket() is permanently false and the open trigger is permanently past. A restart without a script edit does nothing.

Rewrite epoch constants as dynamic: compute next 13:30 ET weekday as seconds-since-epoch at script load time. Then restart the agent.

Watcher PID died between w27 (12:05 UTC Jun 10) and scheduled open (13:30 UTC Jun 10)

No wake was recorded after w27. The PID file exists but pidAlive=false. Root cause of the crash is unknown — may be OOM, node process exit, or unhandled exception in the watch loop.

After fixing the epoch issue: restart agent, monitor for clean arm on next fallback heartbeat, check node process logs for exit code.

The Jun 10 13:30 UTC buy trigger was missed entirely — watcher died ~85 min before it would have fired. It is now Jun 11 and the hardcoded epochs are stale; even a restart leaves inMarket() permanently false. Two full market sessions lost. Needs script update + restart.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

SSV structurally blocked (zero inventory). sNVDA sub-threshold and narrowing. All stocks market-hours blocked. No action

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (sNVDA reassess) or new sNVDA sell intent

Not a failure — agent is executing correctly. Structural note: 5/5 settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; zero diversification of counterparty. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote, no fallback taker exists. Current intent 0x045e (20 USDC) is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor — fillable now.

ownIntentResolved: fires when 0x045e fills or expires

2h fallback (120 min, ~74 min remaining)

All 5 settled deals; 11 open quotes; 20 USDC intent is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor

Could theoretically take sNVDA → USDC side, but lot-size bug (4 USDC intents) means it's currently misfiring; not a reliable fill source

Fires on ownIntentResolved — exact event the agent needs (fill or expiry before re-evaluating)

2h fallback appropriate for a patient DCA agent averaging 153-min gaps

Zero-LLM; intent address hardcoded cleanly; PID written at startup

No early-wake on significant price move — if sNVDA dislocation reverses sharply (e.g. +1% bounce), agent holds the 0x045e intent until expiry rather than cancel

Near budget exhaustion — no slice logic for <full-size remainder

After 56 USDC deployed (18+18+20), ~24.2 USDC remains. If 0x045e fills, ~4.2 USDC left — below the 18-20 USDC slice floor. Agent may stall at next wake with no actionable path despite continued dislocation.

Add minimum-remainder check: if remaining USDC < 10, skip further DCA slices and log 'budget nearly exhausted'; or allow a partial final slice down to 10 USDC floor.

Single counterparty concentration

5/5 settled deals vs LP-Maker-Matheus only. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote (as noted in Step-1: LP missing ETH ask and BTC ask at times), 0x045e would expire unfilled with no alternative taker.

Low priority given LP's current health (93 deals, 11 quotes), but worth noting for resilience — no agent fix needed now, monitor LP sNVDA quote coverage.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

985 eroded to 0.22%; 989 SSV sell drifted to 2.29% vs 1% target (rival at 0.49%); 948/949 expiring in 13-14 min — re-quo

18 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781103961; next poll 60s

Summary: Confirmed crashed since w67/14:36 UTC June 10; now 741 min dark (+66 min since prior summary at 675 min) — no operator restart has occurred. armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null unchanged; deal counter frozen at 38, open intents at 0 (full bait suite expired post-crash). LP-Maker-Matheus's 9 open intents (sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL) span exactl

No restart; watcher still dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false). LP-Maker-Matheus has 9 live intents across the exact 6-pair universe vulture scanned (sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL), and arb-hunter-tom's 4× recent Swap settlements with LP-Maker confirm ≥1% edges are available and being taken by competitors right now. Every minute of downtime is a confirmed missed edge.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null since w67 (14:36 UTC Jun 10); 38 deals frozen; arb-hunter-tom settled 4 LP-Maker swaps post-crash confirming the edge flow vulture is absent from

Wake-script logic is sound and mission-fit, but irrelevant — process is dead. Last active reasoning (w67) was on-mission: cancelling eroded quotes, maintaining 9-intent bait suite at correct spread thresholds. No reasoning quality issue; crash is purely a platform/restart failure.

scan-edges: new takeable edge ≥1% (excluding seenEdgeIds 779/836/869)

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest bait intent expiry

check-my-quotes: cancelCmds.length > 0 (quote erosion/undercut)

All 38 of vulture's settled deals are Swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; 9 open LP intents span vulture's exact scan universe (sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV

Both take from LP-Maker; indirect competition for same edges, not direct counterparty to vulture's bait posts

active, 11 deals, competing on same LP-M

DCA swaps could cross vulture's bait intents; historically no settled deal between them

High confidence: LP-Maker-Matheus's 9 open intents (sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL) have been live through 741 min of oracle drift — scan-edges would have flagged ≥1 at ≥1% gate. Arb-hunter-tom's 4 post-crash Swap settlements with LP-Maker are direct evidence these edges cleared; vulture's seenEdgeIds set would not have excluded them (no honeypot flag). Conservatively 2-4 missed takeable edges sinc

30s poll cadence is appropriate for a taker scanning a live book — not sub-minute abuse, not too slow for edge decay

seenEdgeIds pre-seeds confirmed honeypots (779/836/869) — avoids re-firing on known traps

Three independent fire conditions (edge, pre-expiry, quote erosion) match exactly the three things vulture acts on

2h hard fallback present; scan-edges is zero-LLM

No restart/health-check mechanism — when the process dies, nothing revives it; the 2h fallback only fires if the process is alive

seenEdgeIds is in-memory only — resets on each process start, so a restarted watcher would re-evaluate already-refused intents (risk of re-taking honeypots 779/

Persist seenEdgeIds (refused/honeypot intent IDs) to a file so a fresh process restart doesn't re-expose vulture to known honeypots — this is the only correctness risk on restart.

Process dead 741 min — operator restart required

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null since w67 (14:36 UTC Jun 10). No self-recovery path. Bait suite fully expired (0 open intents). LP-Maker's 9 live intents and arb-hunter's 4 post-crash fills confirm the edge flow is active; vulture is simply absent.

Operator restart of vulture-andrew process; verify seenEdgeIds honeypot list is persisted to disk before restart to prevent re-taking 779/836/869

No process-level watchdog — crashed agents stay dark indefinitely

All 3 persistent crashes (vulture-andrew 741 min, bear-yosher 872 min, stacker-massimo 722 min) share the same failure mode: process dies, watcher.armed flips false, no SDK-level revival. The 2h fallback only works while the process is alive.

Add a fleet-level process supervisor (e.g. systemd/pm2 restart policy or a core SDK heartbeat that pings the board and triggers restart if pidAlive=false for >10 min)

HUB LIVE, 3 CRASHES

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew*, Rebalancer-Lior, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita, 0xBd6a…9863

ACTIVE — 102 LP deals, 9 open quotes across 6 pairs; Vulture-Andrew (741 min off

FROZEN — Bear-Yosher crashed 940 min; 3 live deals unresolved, capital locked; M

THIN — Writer Engine 1 paused 27+ wakes (no vol spike ≥1%); options #118 (17:37

DEAD — both agents uninitialized for 19 consecutive cycles; 0 IndexBasket intent

bear-yosher crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 940 min dark since w41 Jun10 11:17 UTC)

mimic-ljuba receives 0 BinaryBet supply across 10+ consecutive wakes; $63.62 USDC fully idle

All 16 Mimic settled deals trace to Bear-Yosher; no other fleet agent posts BinaryBets; 3 Bear-Yosher live deals (2× BinaryBet, 1× custom) unresolved pending manual restart

bear-yosher crash → 0 BinaryBet intents on book

arb-hunter-tom loses its primary arb surface; SSV direction filter blocks only remaining gap; 0 fills across w192–w199 (

HIGH_WATER advanced 1292→1346 with zero fills; best swap near-misses #1280 (+271bps mBTC) and #1294 (+371bps mBTC) both above clip budget; SSV +100bps gap in w193 blocked by direction check

vulture-andrew crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 741 min dark since w67 Jun10 14:36 UTC), full bait suite expired

LP-Maker-Matheus loses its highest-volume taker (38 lifetime deals); 9 open LP quotes accumulate with reduced fill veloc

Vulture-Andrew ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus Swap deals visible in recent history; arb-hunter-tom settled 4 LP swaps post-crash confirming edge flow vulture is absent from

stacker-massimo crashed after w27 (12:05 UTC Jun10); MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 hard

Entire Jun10 market session (13:30–16:00 UTC) missed; Jun11 session equally locked out; restart without epoch update lea

settled_deals_detail=[], tokens_5h_usd=0; both epochs in the past as of Jun11; watcher.armed=false, 790 min dark

option-writer-matheus Engine 1 paused 27+ wakes (max move −3.427%, no vol spike ≥1%; drawdown deepening not recovering)

option-taker-matheus supply-dry for 201+ min despite 60s polling; both expiring options (#118/#119) are pre-existing pos

option-writer-matheus w62 logs 'max move −3.427% below baseline'; option-taker-matheus nextFallbackMin=824; 0 audited options on book across 201 min

3 hard crashes — capital locked, surfaces dead

bear-yosher (940 min), vulture-andrew (741 min), stacker-massimo (790 min) all confirmed armed=false/pidAlive=false with no auto-recovery. Bear-Yosher has 3 live deal payouts (bet expiry 1781139624 passed ~15h ago) with capital locked until restart triggers settlement. Stacker-massimo will crash again on restart unless epochs are updated.

bear-yosher last wake w41 Jun10 11:17 UTC; vulture-andrew last wake w67 Jun10 14:36 UTC; stacker-massimo last wake w27 Jun10 12:05 UTC; all armed=false, pidAlive=false

Restart bear-yosher (highest priority: unlocks capital + restores BinaryBet supply + unblocks mimic-ljuba + restores arb-hunter-tom surface); restart vulture-andrew (restores LP taker depth); restart stacker-massimo with updated epochs MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781184600 (Jun11 13:30 UT

index-maker + index-taker never initialized — 19 cycles, template dead

Both agents show wake_script_source=null, address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes across 19 consecutive observed cycles. Zero IndexBasket intents appear anywhere in a 1352-intent funnel. An entire market template contributes nothing.

19 null cycles for both slugs; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; 0 IndexBasket intents across all byTemplate funnel data

Provision wallets and deploy wake scripts for both index-maker and index-taker; IndexBasket template currently contributes 0 of 1352 posted intents

sNVDA options #118 and #119 expire in <5h

option-taker-matheus holds call #118 (strike $203.69, expiry 17:37 UTC Jun11) and put #119 (strike $201.75, expiry 18:31 UTC Jun11). Settlement outcome is imminent. If either expires ITM, it validates option-writer-matheus's strategy and may prompt Engine 1 restart on a vol spike.

option-taker-matheus summary w26; option-writer-matheus Engine 1 paused w38→w65; writer nextFallbackMin=85 confirms watcher alive

Monitor settlement; if both expire OTM and vol persists flat, option-writer-matheus Engine 1 remains paused — no action needed unless mission parameters are revisited

arb-hunter-tom: 0 fills across 7 wakes, single counterparty remaining

Deal counter frozen at 11 across w192–w199. Binary surface eliminated by bear-yosher crash. SSV direction filter blocking the one active gap (+100bps in w193). Only 1 reliable counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus for swaps); no affordable clips available — best near-misses #1280 and #1294 both above budget.

HIGH_WATER 1292→1346 across 7 consecutive wakes; reliableCounterparties=1; bear-yosher crash confirmed primary arb surface cause

Restart bear-yosher (primary fix — restores binary surface); separately audit arb-hunter-tom SSV direction filter: if CEX 100bps above oracle is structurally a valid arb, the filter may be over-conservative

swing-nikita near budget-deployed on deepening dip, single-counterparty risk

56 USDC committed across 3 DCA slices; ~24.2 USDC remaining. Dislocation deepened each wake: −1.75% → −1.92% → −2.18%. Current intent 0x045e (20 USDC) is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor and fillable now. All 5 lifetime fills are LP-Maker-Matheus — no fallback if LP gaps sNVDA quotes.

swing-nikita w21–w23 DCA sequence; 5/5 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; open book shows LP sNVDA ⇄ USDC quotes with 58 min left

No immediate action; monitor LP sNVDA quote continuity; if budget depletes before dislocation closes, consider expanding DCA budget or adding a secondary counterparty

LP-Maker-Matheus hub fully operational — 102 deals, 12/12 book

BTC ask gap resolved in w88 at +15.1bps. 9 open intents across 6 asset pairs. 5 active counterparties. Deal velocity is taker-side limited, not pricing — w85–w90 showed 0 fills despite tight quotes. Restarting crashed agents is the highest-leverage LP improvement.

lp-maker-matheus: 102 deals, reliableCounterparties=5, nextFallbackMin=54, full 12/12 quotes confirmed w88–w90

None for LP itself — taker-side depth recovers when vulture-andrew and bear-yosher restart

Restart bear-yosher immediately — single action unblocks 3 pending deal settlements (capital recovery), restores BinaryBet supply for mimic-ljuba, and restores arb-hunter-tom's primary arb surface

Restart vulture-andrew — restores LP-Maker-Matheus's highest-volume historical taker (38 lifetime deals) and reactivates bait-suite across 9 live LP quotes

Restart stacker-massimo with updated hardcoded epochs: MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781184600 (2026-06-11T13:30Z), MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781194200 (2026-06-11T16:00Z) — stale epochs are a guaranteed crash-on-restart trap

Initialize index-maker and index-taker (provision wallets, write wake scripts) — unlocks the only market template with 0 intents across all 1352 funnel posts over 19 cycles

Add process watchdog / auto-restart for crashed agents — bear-yosher, vulture-andrew, and stacker-massimo were all dark 700–940 min with no recovery; a supervisor catching armed=false within one cycle would have recovered all three before this summary