account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

SSV oracle lags CEX by 76bps; poster priced off stale oracle; taker (me) gets mSSV 41bps below true market value.

new mSSV intent >1503 ≥10bps OR binary bet ≤30min — 30-min fallback

0 binary bets in w205–w212; bear-yosher at 1352 min dark (deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed unsettled); mimic-ljuba at 16+ empty wakes; 13/13 deals are swaps, 9 vs LP-Maker-Matheus alone. Binary market frozen at source — no poster.

New intent id > HIGH_WATER(1467) with SSV-CEX edge ≥10bps (buy or sell direction)

New intent id > HIGH_WATER with BTC or ETH oracle-CEX edge (via ORACLE_SYMBOL map)

New binary bet matching BINARY_BET_HASHES set

9/13 settled deals; active swap poster at near-oracle prices; reliable fill surface

1 settled deal; posts DCA swap slices near oracle; occasional fill when lior's target asset overlaps arb edge

Intent #1342 live right now (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV); if SSV CEX edge re-opens this is an actionable fill in next wake

Primary binary bet poster — crashed 1352 min, deal 75 expiry passed unsettled; binary surface depends on recovery

Binary copy-trader that could post bets arb-hunter could take; 16+ consecutive empty wakes, no active posting

Posts near-sure-win binaries and baited intents; 7 open intents live but 0 binary bets among them (swap-only currently); gas gate blocking f

HIGH_WATER baseline (1467, updated each wake) prevents stale-intent false fires — correct anti-spam gate

BINARY_BET_HASHES set fires immediately on any new binary bet — right reflex for near-decided taker mission

SSV CEX fetch with 30s cache; BTC/ETH via ORACLE_SYMBOL map — covers the three assets that have actually produced fills

30-min hard fallback ensures the agent never sleeps through a slow-moving edge window

seenIds baseline on first poll avoids firing on already-seen intents at arm time

No poster-balance pre-check: w208 reverted ERC20InsufficientBalance on intent #1414 — watcher fires on any new intent meeting edge criteria, including unfunded

Binary bet fire is correct but structurally starved: both BINARY_BET_HASHES posters (bear-yosher, mimic-ljuba) are inactive — watcher is configured right but th

Unfunded-poster revert wastes wakes

w208: attempted accept-swap #1414, reverted ERC20InsufficientBalance. Agent identified this as 'new failure mode' but the watcher has no guard. Next occurrence will fire another wake and burn ~$0.71.

In runWatchLoop, before calling fireWake on a swap intent, fetch poster's token balance for the offer asset; skip if balance < offer amount. One RPC call, no LLM cost.

Binary surface permanently frozen without bear-yosher recovery

0 binary bets in 8 consecutive wakes (w205–w212). bear-yosher at 1352 min dark; deal 75 betExpiry (epoch 1781139624) passed unsettled. arb-hunter's binary-taker mission is correctly coded but has no supply to act on. mimic-ljuba also producing zero binary output.

Restart bear-yosher (fleet action). Until then, arb-hunter's binary path is structurally unachievable — not an agent bug.

USDC_BALANCE hardcoded at $71.05 (wake 211)

Wake-script uses static USDC_BALANCE=71.05 and SSV_BALANCE=4.7714 for clip-cap checks. After deal #139 (w210 spent $6.27 USDC), actual balance has drifted. Overestimates available capital; could attempt a fill the wallet can't fund.

Replace static balance constants with a live on-chain balance fetch at the start of each wake loop iteration, or at minimum re-read from belt.tools before each fill attempt.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

armed=false, pidAlive=false since before deal-75 expiry; settled_deals frozen at 17 across consecutive runs; deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed with no settlement call; all 3 live deals ↔ Mimic-Ljuba (health:ok) who as losing counterparty has no incentive to initiate settlement

Intent 869 fill/expiry (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet on book (newMatches on BINARY_BET_HASH)

Deal 75 near-expiry at epoch 1781139624 - 300s

sole counterparty on all 3 live deals; health:ok and active (16 deals), but as the losing side on in-the-money bets has no incentive to call

could absorb basket swap intents once bear-yosher restarts and recycles locked capital; not relevant to deal settlement

would take near-decided BinaryBets bear-yosher could post once restarted; not useful while crashed

Adverse price triggers (+1.5% ETH/BTC) correctly guard the bear thesis — fires before conviction is invalidated

Deal-75 near-expiry anchor (fire 5 min early) was exactly right for mission: claim settlement promptly

New BinaryBet detection via templateHash is precise — won't fire on irrelevant intents

4h fallback prevents permanent silence if all other triggers miss

Zero-LLM, runWatchLoop pattern is correct

Process is dead — script is irrelevant until agent is restarted

No self-healing: if the process dies, nothing re-arms it; the 4h fallback only helps if the process is alive

No process resurrection for crashed watchers

bear-yosher has been dark 994 min. The watcher script is well-designed but a dead process cannot re-arm itself. bear-yosher, stacker-massimo, and vulture-andrew all share this failure mode — three agents dark simultaneously indicates a platform gap, not three independent agent bugs.

Add a fleet-level supervisor (e.g. a cron job or watchdog) that polls pidAlive and auto-relaunches watcher processes that have died.

Deal 75 settlement unclaimed — capital locked

betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed; BTC was 3.49% below strike at w39, making deal 75 in-the-money for bear-yosher. Mimic-Ljuba (losing side) will not self-settle. Capital (~$48–52 USDC) locked in 3 live deals cannot recycle into new positions until settled.

Manual restart of bear-yosher; first action should be to call settlement on deal 75 and the 2 other expired BinaryBets before posting new intents.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 27th consecutive null cycle — bit-for-bit identical to all prior runs. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No provisioning signal detected this cycle. IndexBasket market segment remains fully offline alongside index-taker. Not a crash; never initialized.

Zero change across 27 consecutive observation cycles. No address, no tokens spent, no wake script, no watcher. This agent has never run. The IndexBasket market segment is structurally absent — index-taker is in the same state.

wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0 — identical across all 27 cycles

No reasoning to read — agent has never executed. The null state is not a reasoning failure; it is a provisioning failure upstream of any agent logic.

MISSING: no watcher exists to fire on any condition

Designed to take the SHORT side of index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents — the only intended counterparty

Also never initialized — both sides of t

unmeasurable: agent has never posted an intent; watcher blind to book by virtue of never existing

wake_script_source is null — no script exists at all

No watcher armed; no fallback timer; no address to act from

Provision the agent (assign address, deploy wake script) — all other improvements are moot until initialization occurs

Agent never provisioned after 27 cycles

index-maker has address=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes across every observed cycle. This is not a crash or a stuck watcher — the agent simply does not exist yet. index-taker is in the same state. The entire IndexBasket market segment is offline.

Provision index-maker and index-taker together (both require simultaneous initialization for the market to function); assign addresses, fund pools, deploy wake scripts. There is no partial fix — one side without the other produces zero deals.

Zero change across 27 consecutive observation cycles. No address, no tokens spent, no wake script, no watcher. This agent has never run. The IndexBasket market segment is structurally absent — index-taker is in the same state.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 27th consecutive null cycle — bit-for-bit identical to prior run. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No provisioning signal this cycle. Index-maker (health=unknown, also undeployed) remains the binding dependency: even if index-taker were live, there are no LONG IndexBasket intents in the

27 consecutive null cycles, $0 spent, 0 wakes. No change from last run. The IndexBasket market is structurally frozen at the provisioning layer — index-maker must deploy and post LONG IndexBasket intents before index-taker has any function to perform.

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 settled deals (not-indexed), index-maker health=unknown — both counterparties absent simultaneously for 27 cycles

Unmeasurable — no reasoning has ever executed. No wake script, no wakes, no LLM calls. There is nothing to evaluate.

MISSING: no watcher deployed — no trigger of any kind exists

sole natural counterparty — posts LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to take the short side of

also undeployed (health=unknown, 0 deals

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — no script deployed, no book polling possible; and index-maker has posted no LONG IndexBasket intents in 27 cycles, so there is structurally nothing to take

armed=false, pidAlive=false — agent is fully unprovisioned

Deploy the agent: provision wake_script_source with a watcher that polls the open book for LONG IndexBasket intents and fires when one appears; pair deployment with index-maker so both sides go live together

Agent not provisioned — 27 null cycles

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false. No watcher has ever been deployed. The agent has never woken, never spent a token, never touched the book.

Deploy index-taker alongside index-maker in a coordinated provisioning step; the two must go live together or index-taker has no intents to evaluate

IndexBasket market frozen on both sides simultaneously

index-maker (the only LONG IndexBasket poster) and index-taker (the only SHORT taker) are both health=unknown and undeployed. Neither side can bootstrap the market alone.

Treat as a paired deployment — provision index-maker first to establish the intent supply, then index-taker to establish demand; a one-sided launch produces a dead book

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

All 10 intents valid and fairly priced. Cannot fill #1486 (undersized sNVDA). SSV/sNVDA asks remain offline (thin invent

Cluster S pre-expiry ~11:26 UTC | ETH guard $1661 | BTC guard $63,050 (TIGHT) | fillable intent | 60min fallback

Summary: Fleet's sole functioning liquidity hub. BTC ask gap RESOLVED in w88 (posted #1278 at +15.1bps, 12/12 full book achieved and held through w89/w90) — the key open question from last run is answered. Open intents consolidated 15→11 confirming legacy dup cleanup is complete. Deals ticked 95→96 (+1); Arb-Hunter-Tom resurrection adds a net-new active counterparty.

96 deals, 12/12 full book, $11.85 realized PnL on $700 base — LP is performing its mission. BTC ask gap closed in w88; 15→11 dup consolidation confirms book is clean. The one active threat is concurrent-session inversion recurring on every oracle move, causing arb bleed and wasted wake cycles rather than fills.

12/12 quotes posted; 6 active counterparties (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, 0xBd6a…9863, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita); deal velocity limited by taker arrivals not LP quality. w85–w90 show 0 fills across multiple wakes despite tight quotes — thin taker side, not mispricing.

Sound and on-mission. w88 correctly diagnosed concurrent-session inversion (cancelled #1272 SSV +9.8bps inverted, #1274 dup sNVDA bid, #1273 dup SSV ask) and resolved it in one pass, achieving 12/12 full book. volTerm adjustments are quantitative (ETH 43.8bps, BTC 37.9bps, SSV 49.5bps) and mission-appropriate. Not churning — each wake either fills a gap, clears a stale quote, or correctly conclude

Cluster expiry guard: EXPIRY_FIRE_TS_SEC=1781133228 (~23:18 UTC) fires 5min before #1281–#1286 cluster expires

New fillable swap: newMatches() detects net-new intents where posterWants ∈ HOLD set

MISSING: inversion/spread-check trigger — concurrent-session inversions detected only at next poll (60s lag), causing arb bleed per event

Active arb taker; resurrection confirmed armed=true/pidAlive=true; appears 8× in recent deal list including w84 arb fill

Most frequent recent counterparty (~8 fills in tail); health=stuck but still settling LP intents

5 recent fills but current 4.96 USDC intent is sub-LP-minimum lot — won't clear until lior posts ≥12 USDC

2 recent fills; w23 20 USDC intent on book (18 min left) is above minimum

External wallet; 7 fills in recent tail — reliable taker source outside named fleet

Rebalancer-Lior's 4.96 USDC→BTC intent is sub-LP-minimum and correctly skipped. Swing-Nikita's 20 USDC intent (w23, 18 min left) is above minimum — watcher's newMatches() should fire on it if posted after last wake. No evidence of LP missing a fillable above-threshold intent.

Expiry cluster guard pins exact ts 1781133228 (5min before #1281–#1286 cluster) — no stale quotes

newMatches() on HOLD set: only fires on intents LP can profitably fill, not its own stale posts

60s poll interval — not sub-minute; patient cadence appropriate for 22-min avg gap

No oracle price guards (per playbook rule — avoids loop storms)

50min fallback ensures watcher doesn't go dark between clusters

No spread/inversion check: concurrent-session inversions (flagged w84, w87, w88) are discovered only at next 60s poll tick, allowing ~1min of arb exposure per e

Add an inversion detector in the watch loop: if any own bid's price ≥ own ask's price for the same asset (readable from open intents), fireWake('spread inverted — concurrent session detected') immediately rather than waiting up to 60s. This

Concurrent-session inversion recurs on every oracle move

w84, w87, w88 all report concurrent session posting inverted bids when oracle moves positive. Each event costs ~$0.076 arb loss plus a cleanup wake. Root: two watcher sessions posting simultaneously create crossed spreads. Watcher detects it reactively at next poll (up to 60s exposure).

Add inversion check in runWatchLoop body: compare own bid vs own ask prices per asset from readOpenIntents; fireWake immediately on cross. Also investigate why two concurrent watcher sessions arise — may need PID lock enforcement in armWatcher.

Token cost critical: $76.51/5h = 53.4% of pool

96 deals settling at $0.82/wake average; 87 wakes × $0.82 ≈ $71 but 5h cost is $76.51 with 80/87 repeat wakes. At this burn rate LP's token pool (~$143 implied at 53.4%) exhausts in ~5h. Repeat-wake rate 92% (80/87) suggests most wakes are maintenance not fills.

Core/SDK: add per-agent token budget cap and alert threshold. Agent-side: w85 correctly no-ops when nothing actionable — ensure repeat-wake suppression logic is consistently applied to avoid unnecessary LLM calls on zero-action wakes.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

No BinaryBet on board to accept; no recent binary flow to mirror. Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on entire visible board (all int

new BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge OR 60 min fallback

Summary: Drought now confirmed through w77 (was w76 last run); Bear-Yosher crashed 1412 min (~23.5 h), up from 1352 min — 60 more min of downtime with no sign of recovery. Capital locked at $63.62 USDC, openExposureUsd=0, 0 open intents, 0 new settled deals. Focus question answered: agent is CORRECTLY idle — no binary-adjacent supply is reachable without a mission or

Mimic-Ljuba is behaving exactly right for a 23.5-hour structural drought: capital preserved at $63.62, zero reckless exposure, watcher live. The fix is Bear-Yosher recovery, not agent changes — but the 60-min fallback cadence is burning needless wakes (95 wakes, 64 repeat) and should extend to 3-4 h during a confirmed 0-BinaryBet drought.

All 16 settled deals are 'custom live ↔ Bear-Yosher' (100% concentration). Bear-Yosher crashed 1412 min ago. Open book shows 0 BinaryBets (confirmed w71–w77). No other fleet agent posts BinaryBets to the book.

Sound and on-mission. Each wake correctly identifies 0 BinaryBets, enforces the ≥3pp edge floor, and holds. Not re-deriving incorrectly — the drought IS structural and the agent is right not to force action. No reasoning churn detected.

New BinaryBet (templateHash=0x09cd…060c) with ≥3pp taker edge appears in open book

60-min fallback (fires unconditionally even during 23+ h confirmed drought)

Sole historical binary counterparty; all 16 settled deals

Mission includes posting small-shade BinaryBets, but only 2 lifetime deals and 0 open binaries now

Taker of near-decided binaries, not a maker — no binary supply

Takes mispriced binaries, does not post them

Gas-gated, but wrong direction regardles

Posts ETH/BTC options (different template hash + custom Option judge) — incompatible with mimic's BinaryBet-only watcher and mission

None — 0 BinaryBets posted to open book across w71–w77. Option-Writer-Matheus intents use a different template hash and would require mission + code changes to access. Polymarket-Ljuba posts 0 open binaries. Nothing actionable existed.

Hardcodes BINARY_TEMPLATE_HASH — watcher is blind to non-binary noise, fires only on relevant flow

Edge check (takerEdgePp = 50 − takerCostProb ≥ 3pp) is zero-LLM, correct for oracle-neutral 50/50 prior

Maintains `seen` set across polls — won't double-fire on same intent

60-min fallback with armWatcher — correctly armed, never hangs

60-min fallback cadence is too aggressive during a 23+ h confirmed 0-BinaryBet drought — agent is waking 95 times (64 repeat) to find nothing, burning tokens un

No drought-length detection — watcher cannot escalate or extend its own cadence when N consecutive fallbacks all find an empty book

Fair-prob hardcoded at 50% — no Polymarket reference price integration even though polymarket-ljuba exists in fleet and could inform a sharper edge estimate

Extend fallback to 180–240 min when the seen-set baseline finds 0 BinaryBets and has found 0 for 3+ consecutive polls. This alone would cut repeat wakes from ~64 to single digits during the current drought with zero mission impact.

Bear-Yosher still crashed — binary market has no maker

1412 min of downtime (23.5 h). Mimic-Ljuba is the only binary taker; without Bear-Yosher posting, the binary market is fully frozen. $63.62 USDC sits idle.

Restart Bear-Yosher. If it can't auto-recover, investigate the crash cause and manually relaunch.

60-min fallback too aggressive during confirmed structural drought

95 wakes, 64 repeat, avg_gap_min=50 — agent is polling every hour to find nothing. $2.12 lifetime token spend already consumed; each drought wake adds $0.63 equivalent with zero deal probability.

Add drought-detection logic: if 3+ consecutive fallbacks return 0 BinaryBets, extend fallback to 3-4 h. Reset to 60 min on any non-empty binary book detection.

100% counterparty concentration with no fallback pipeline

All 16 deals are Bear-Yosher. Polymarket-Ljuba is mission-adjacent but mimic cannot access its flow (0 open binaries, and even if it posted, mimic would need to treat it as a valid source). No diversity in binary supply.

If Bear-Yosher recovery is unreliable long-term, consider mission expansion to also watch Polymarket-Ljuba's binary posts (same template hash applies if it uses BinaryBets), reducing single-point-of-failure risk.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Signal is strong but no fillable SSV sellers on book. #1486 left unchanged — 0.45% below oracle is within tolerance.

#1508 resolves | new SSV seller | SSV vs BTC gap < -2pp (9h fallback)

LP-Maker-Matheus filled all prior SSV swaps (w19 deal, w20 deal, w21 deal #1304) totaling ~8 SSV; no LP fill since w21 (02:05 UTC). Intent #1327 expired unfilled. Intent #1342 posted 02:05 UTC with 8h TTL (~10:05 UTC expiry) — watcher silent 466 min despite monitoring for new SSV sellers at ≤$2.14.

ownIntentResolved (fill OR expiry of #1342) — fires in ~18 min as expiry hits

New SSV seller at ≤$2.14 (≤1% above $2.12 oracle) appears in open book

SSV vs ETH fast-4h momentum gap shifts ≥2pp from arm-time baseline (5.47pp)

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 — hard-coded calendar trigger for equity rotation check

9h fallback (effectiveDeadline = min(9h, US_OPEN) = US_OPEN at 13:30 UTC)

MISSING: No trigger for LP-Maker-Matheus restocking signal — agent can only detect new open intents, not LP inventory replenishment timing

Filled 5/6 settled deals; sole SSV liquidity source in fleet; mission is to quote swaps from inventory

Settled one swap with Momentum-Nikita; armed for US open (nextFallbackMin=251); may hold SSV if DCA target includes it

Fades dislocations — if SSV stretched above trailing avg, might post a sell; armed (nextFallbackMin=341)

Takes mispriced intents / posts baited intents; 7 open intents currently, gas gate blocking fills — won't provide SSV liquidity

Fires on ownIntentResolved — catches both fill and expiry of #1342 cleanly, ensures no dead time after expiry

Monitors new SSV sellers in real-time with price filter (≤1% above oracle) — exactly what a momentum taker needs

Calendar trigger at US open (13:30 UTC) enables equity rotation without waiting for full fallback — mission-correct

Momentum signal shift trigger (≥2pp gap change) handles both signal collapse and acceleration — prevents stale conviction

9h fallback with effectiveDeadline = min(9h, US_OPEN) is properly bounded; won't sleep past a key event

Zero-LLM, pure event-driven — cheap, reliable, no reasoning cost in the watch loop

No mechanism to detect LP-Maker-Matheus inventory restock — only sees new open intents, misses LP readiness signals

Price tolerance for SSV seller detection hardcoded at arm-time $2.12; if oracle drifts, the filter becomes stale and may miss valid sellers

SSV momentum re-check uses live prices vs anchor from w20 (2026-06-10T21:49) — anchor is now ~12h old, reducing signal fidelity

Stale arm-time oracle price in re-arming cycle

BASE_SSV=$2.12 and ANCHOR_* prices are hardcoded from w24 (02:05 UTC, ~8h ago). After #1342 expires (~10:05 UTC), the agent will re-arm with these values, making the SSV seller filter (≤$2.14) and the momentum delta calculation incorrect if oracle has moved.

Fetch live oracle prices at arm time and write them into the new wake script rather than inheriting prior-wake constants.

Single SSV liquidity source — LP-Maker-Matheus inventory depletion blocks momentum execution

LP-Maker-Matheus is the only SSV seller in the fleet (5/6 Momentum-Nikita deals). After selling ~8 SSV in w19–w21, it has not posted new SSV offers. Two consecutive intents (#1327, #1342) expired or will expire unfilled. Momentum-Nikita correctly identified a 10pp+ signal but has no counterparty to

LP-Maker-Matheus should monitor its SSV balance and restock when depleted — either by posting a buy intent (SSV from external) or by adjusting its quote engine to signal inventory state. Core: consider an LP inventory health metric visible to the fleet.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Cheap optionality: tight-to-the-money put with 24h tail, thin premium on a volatile stock (sNVDA). Probability of 0.20 d

All 4 settled deals sourced from option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). No new audited Template 0xb3d66f4b intents appeared in 920 min of watcher polls. Agent correctly idle — supply drought, not agent failure.

New audited Option intent with templateHash=0xb3d66f4b appears in open book (polling every 60s)

nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956) — fires ~17:32 UTC today, ~14 min before call #118 expiry

23h fallback from last arm — nextFallbackMin=422 → ~17:32 UTC today (converges with settlement trigger)

Sole option writer; all 4 deals sourced from this address. Health=ok, 17 deals.

Fires on new audited options by templateHash — precisely what the mission requires (selective, audited takes only)

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS check fires ~14 min before call #118 expiry — adequate cushion for LLM + tx

23h fallback converges with settlement trigger, providing a redundant safety net

60s poll cadence appropriate for option-book monitoring (not sub-minute overreach)

Baselines seen intents on first poll to avoid spurious wakes on startup

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to current deals (#118/#119); after today's settlement, the constant becomes stale (fires immediately on every future

Comment says '5 min' cushion but actual delta to call #118 expiry (1781195796) is 840s = 14 min — documentation drift, not functional issue

Single-counterparty exposure: if option-writer-matheus goes silent, watcher may never fire on new-intent path again

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS hardcoded to current deal expirations

After deal #118 and #119 settle today, MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS=1781194956 will be permanently in the past — the settlement-window trigger will fire on every 60s poll, causing runaway wakes until the constant is manually updated.

Derive settlement deadline dynamically each poll from live open deals' expiryTs fields; remove the hardcoded constant entirely.

Single counterparty (option-writer-matheus) creates structural supply risk

100% of deal flow (4/4) from one writer. If option-writer-matheus slows option output or goes offline, this agent has no alternate supply and will enter indefinite idle.

Agent-level: widen scope to any agent posting audited Option intents, not just this writer; the templateHash filter already enforces audit safety without writer-identity restriction.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

No signals. All resume conditions false. Engine 1 paused (7 consecutive unfilled options proven zero premium buyer deman

vol ≥1%, ranking rotation, or new buyer option intent (or 120-min fallback)

Summary: Now w93, Engine 1 paused for 56 consecutive wakes since w37 (~112 hours). The 'custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus' in settled_deals_detail is the SAME deal already in the prior summary — settled_deals count remains 17, unchanged since last run, confirming no new option settlements. All three Engine 1 resume gates remain false through w93: (a) vol spike —

No new deals since last run — 17 settled deals total unchanged. Engine 1 has been paused 56 wakes (~112 hours); all three resume gates remain false per w87–w93 wakes. Engine 2 is on-target and stable. This is a patient mission-correct hold, not a malfunction — the option-writing sleeve has no buyer demand.

0 buyer option intents in open book across w87–w93; Engine 1's 7 consecutive unfilled option writes (w26–w37) established zero buyer demand; 0 open intents currently posted; only counterparty (Option-Taker-Matheus, 4 deals) has not posted new option buy intents this cycle

Sound reasoning, correct problem. The agent correctly identifies all three Engine 1 resume conditions each wake (w90, w92, w93 all cite vol/ranking/buyer-intent explicitly) and holds Engine 2 on autopilot at 69.7% inventory. The risk is it's solving the right problem for too long — 56 paused wakes raises a structural question about whether the Engine 1 mission design can ever self-resume without e

vol ≥1% move on ETH, BTC, sNVDA, or sMSFT vs baseline

worst-2 stock ranking rotation (execSync rank-performance.ts)

The only agent that takes option writes; settled the one custom deal; but currently posting no new buyer intents

armed, nextFallbackMin=364, but no activ

Engine 2 swap counterparty only — handles portfolio rebalancing swaps, not option writes

none — watcher monitors non-swap intents; open book shows 0 option buy intents; no takeable option intents were posted this cycle

Monitors exactly the three Engine 1 resume triggers the mission defines — vol spike, ranking rotation, new option buyer intent

Zero-LLM: all checks are deterministic (price deltas, set diff, JSON parse)

120-min fallback guards against silent inactivity

60s poll cadence is appropriate for vol-spike detection on a mission that can act immediately

baselineWorst2 is hardcoded to ["sNVDA", "sMSFT"] at script init — if ranking already rotated before the watcher started, this baseline is stale and the rotatio

execSync rank-performance.ts runs on every 60s poll: expensive and silently swallowed on failure — a failed ranking check means the rotation trigger is invisibl

Derive baselineWorst2 dynamically from the first rank-performance.ts call (already made in the first-poll block) instead of hardcoding — this ensures the watcher starts from the actual current state rather than a value from wake 92 that may

Hardcoded baselineWorst2 invalidates ranking rotation trigger on restarts

baselineWorst2 = ["sNVDA", "sMSFT"] is hardcoded from wake 92 state. If the watcher restarts after a ranking change, the baseline is wrong and the rotation check never fires — the watcher's first-poll block already runs rank-performance.ts and could populate this dynamically.

In the first-poll block, run rank-performance.ts and assign baselineWorst2 = rankData.worstStocks.slice(0,2) instead of the hardcoded value

Engine 1 paused 56 wakes (~112 hrs) with no self-resume path in sight

Option-Taker-Matheus (the only buyer) has 4 total deals and is not posting new option buy intents. Zero buyer demand has persisted since w37. The agent correctly waits, but the mission may need a seeding mechanism — e.g., Option-Writer posting one test option intent at a favorable strike to see if O

Consider adding a 'seed probe' branch to Engine 1: if paused >48 hrs with zero buyer intents seen, post one small option intent at a taker-favorable strike to test demand, rather than waiting indefinitely for buyer-side initiation

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

sAAPL stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75) hit; new binary/option intent; fallback Jun11 20:00 UTC

Summary: Continuing to hold 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / horizon Jun12 20:00 UTC). nextFallbackMin burned 784→669 = −115 min; last_wake_min_ago grew 1017→1132 = +115 min — exact 1:1 burn, third consecutive cycle of mechanical consistency confirmed. Fallback fires today Jun11 20:00 UTC (~669 min from observation), at which point agent wil

1:1 burn confirmed again (−115 min fallback / +115 min elapsed). The Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback is the next material event today — watcher will wake to assess whether lp-maker-matheus or another counterparty can fill the sAAPL exit ahead of the Jun12 horizon. Oracle price for sAAPL not in snapshot data, so stop/forward current-status is unverifiable this cycle; no price trigger fired, implying $277.34–$303.75 range intact.

Agent is in single-position hold mode (0.085722 sAAPL since entry); deal count 2 is lifetime, reflecting correct selectivity for a Polymarket-edge taker. No new mispriced binary/option intents reported across wakes w19–w26. This is correct behavior, not a malfunction.

Sound and mission-appropriate. Each of the 8 logged wakes (w19–w26) correctly identifies no edge and holds. w26 caught the needsApproval gap and fixed it preemptively — this is good defensive reasoning. Edge erosion to 1.5% per distribution convergence is reported across multiple wakes, consistent with expected behavior as the horizon approaches. No signs of re-deriving the same wrong problem; age

new binary/option/unknown intent appears on book

Fallback: Jun11 20:00 UTC = 1781208000 (fires today, ~669 min out)

105 deals, deep inventory, quotes swaps near oracle mid — primary exit counterparty for sAAPL delivered swap

DCA trader that transacts in sMSFT/BTC; sAAPL trim is in its mandate (13:30 UTC stock-open event today), could co-transact

Fades dislocations in sAAPL/sNVDA; could absorb sAAPL if it's stretched above trailing average at exit

None verifiable. momentum-nikita's SSV intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV) is live on book but falls outside polymarket-ljuba's binary/option scope. All wakes w19–w26 correctly found no Polymarket-edge mispricing worth taking. Book scan is active as tertiary trigger so new opportunities would fire a wake.

Price triggers on exact stop/forward thresholds ($277.34 / $303.75) — fires the instant price crosses, no polling lag beyond 60s

Horizon check uses on-chain nowTs from snapshot, not wall-clock — correct for blockchain-settled positions

Fallback set to Jun11 20:00 UTC (24h before horizon) to assess maker candidates — textbook pre-expiry assessment cadence

Tertiary book scan catches new binary/option/unknown intents — keeps Polymarket-edge mission alive during hold phase

w26 preemptive approval (tx 0xf145...) shows watcher caught needsApproval gap before exit was needed — defensive and correct

No oracle price available in the current data snapshot to confirm sAAPL is still between stop/forward this cycle — unverifiable from observer side only

horizonTs is loaded from state.json on first poll; a state.json corruption would silently fall back to hardcoded 1781294400 with no alerting

Log the resolved horizonTs on first load (e.g., `console.log('[watcher] horizonTs resolved:', horizonTs, new Date(horizonTs*1000).toISOString())`) so the fallback path vs state.json path is distinguishable in wake logs. No mission-critical

sAAPL oracle price not confirmed in-range this cycle

Observer has no oracle snapshot for sAAPL current price. Stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 range is assumed intact since no price trigger fired, but cannot be confirmed. Entry was $290.79; any gap above $303.75 would warrant immediate wake.

Confirm sAAPL oracle price at next agent wake or via manual snapshot call; no code change needed — price triggers in watcher will fire correctly if thresholds are breached.

Post-fallback maker candidate assessment needs lp-maker availability

Fallback fires Jun11 20:00 UTC today. Agent will need lp-maker-matheus (105 deals, primary counterparty) available to fill the exit swap. lp-maker health is currently ok with active deal flow.

No action now; monitor lp-maker health through today. If lp-maker goes dark before Jun11 20:00 UTC, alert so swing-nikita/rebalancer-lior can serve as backup exit counterparties.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: BTC #1294 (+4% premium, w44→w45, Jun 10 23:41 UTC) remains the last fill — zero new deals since prior summary. The 4 LP-Maker-Matheus and 1 Arb-Hunter-Tom entries in settled_deals_detail are the w39–w44 cycle fills already counted. Correctly idle (0 open intents, $0 tokens in 5h). Armed with pid alive, nextFallbackMin=189 correctly fires ~14:00 UTC (30 min s

No new activity since last summary — all settled_deals_detail entries predate w45. Watch loop fires on `Date.now() >= 13:30 UTC` (60s poll) with fallback at 14:00 UTC; timing is correct and the agent is alive and patient.

Stocks closed since w45 (23:41 UTC Jun 10); no USDC to deploy until sMSFT trim generates capital. Zero open intents, zero spend in 5h — correctly waiting, not stuck.

Sound and solving the right problem. w39–w44 showed disciplined premium escalation (oracle → +1.47% → +2.07% → +3% → +4%) until #1294 filled. Now idle by design. No churn — 0 wakes since w45, 670 min ago.

Primary fill counterparty — 4 of last 7 settled deals; will absorb BTC/sMSFT swaps near oracle

active, 109 deals, health ok, 10 open in

Took 1 recent rebalancer swap; latency arb profile means it takes fairly-priced book fills

Takes sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL bids near oracle+0.5% — could cross with sMSFT trim sell

active, 4 deals, nextFallbackMin=3 (immi

1 historical swap fill; takes delivered swaps on strong movers — situational

none — capital fully committed to BTC DCA (#1294 filled); no USDC available for additional takes. Watcher blind to live book between wakes, but mission is patient DCA not opportunistic taking.

Zero-LLM watcher — fires deterministically on wall-clock event (stock open 13:30 UTC)

60s poll cadence appropriate for a time-gated mission; not sub-minute

Fallback at 14:00 UTC (30 min buffer) with Math.max guard ensuring ≥5 min even if Date skews

Label explicitly names the planned action (sMSFT trim + BTC DCA), reducing confusion at fire time

Hardcoded date `2026-06-11T13:30:00Z` requires manual rewrite after each trading day — by design in this workflow but worth noting

Watch loop condition `Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS` stays true all day after 13:30; repeated fireWake calls possible if main loop delays, though fireWake semanti

Add a `fired` boolean guard inside the watch loop (`if (!fired && Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS) { fired = true; fireWake(...); }`) to prevent duplicate fires if the main loop is slow returning.

Watch loop fires repeatedly after stock open

Once `Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS`, every 60s iteration calls `fireWake`. If the main loop takes >60s to kill the watcher, duplicate wakes are possible.

Add a `let fired = false` guard: `if (!fired && Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS) { fired = true; fireWake(...); }`

No new activity since last summary — all settled_deals_detail entries predate w45. Watch loop fires on `Date.now() >= 13:30 UTC` (60s poll) with fallback at 14:00 UTC; timing is correct and the agent is alive and patient.

Stacker-Massimo

Taker-led tech-equity accumulator: take resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle, 24/7, ~10 USDC lots; post own bid at oracle+0.5% only when nothing is takeable. Accumulate until 100 USDC deployed; never sell.

Nothing to take, bid already posted and valid — wait for fill or oracle move

intent 1485 fill/expiry | sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC | oracle drift >0.5%

All 4 settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; no other counterparty has posted a takeable sNVDA sell. The 17-min gap since w30 with no event-triggered wake implies the book is currently dry of new sNVDA sells ≤12 USDC — normal inter-fill spacing, not a fault.

New sNVDA sell intent appears (poster gives sNVDA, wants USDC, fill cost ≤12 USDC)

MISSING: sAAPL and sMSFT sell-side — watcher is sNVDA-only despite mission covering all three tickers

Sole counterparty for all 4 deals; posts sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks near oracle mid — exact fill source Massimo needs

Posts sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT-denominated options; could create synthetic sell-side exposure but not direct swap asks

Posts delivered swaps for rebalancing — could occasionally be a seller of equity tokens if overweight

Event-driven on new sNVDA sells — fires precisely when there is something to act on, zero idle LLM burn

Cost filter (≤12 USDC) prevents oversized fills inline in the watcher

45-min fallback ensures periodic book sweep even in quiet intervals

Zero-LLM, pid-file written, clean armWatcher/runWatchLoop pattern

Watches only sNVDA — mission is sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT 24/7; sAAPL and sMSFT sells are only caught on fallback ticks, not immediately

No dynamic fallback shortening near market open — 45-min is fine off-hours but could miss the open burst

Watcher blind to sAAPL and sMSFT sell-side events

current.ts only matches sNVDA posterGives intents. If LP-Maker-Matheus posts sAAPL or sMSFT asks, Massimo learns of them only on the next 45-min fallback tick — potentially 44 min of missed fill window per ticker.

Update isSNVDASell to match l.symbol === 'sNVDA' || l.symbol === 'sAAPL' || l.symbol === 'sMSFT' in the posterGives leg; rename to isTechEquitySell.

Single reliable counterparty — concentration risk

All 4 deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus. If Matheus pauses or runs out of inventory, Massimo's accumulation halts entirely. 84.85 USDC remains undeployed toward 100 USDC target.

No immediate action needed — Matheus is healthy and active. Monitor; if Matheus is dark >2h during market hours, surface as a fleet gap.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: No-trade streak w24–w33 (10 straight) remains structurally justified — sNVDA narrowing toward threshold, NOT away from it. Projected ~-0.56% at 13:30 UTC open, ~0.94pp short of ≥-1.5% buy trigger. SSV sell (+5.72%) permanently blocked by zero inventory. Watcher armed, firing at market open 13:30 UTC (~159 min from analysis time); no new wakes since w33 (07:1

Agent is correctly parked: watcher fires at 13:30 UTC US open. sNVDA projected ~-0.56% at open (prior trend −0.06pp/hr narrowing, not widening), ~0.94pp below the −1.5% buy threshold. SSV sell signal structurally dead — zero inventory means it can never execute regardless of signal strength. 5 lifetime deals, all ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; no new deals this cycle.

SSV: +5.72% sell signal present since last summary but agent holds 0 SSV — signal can never fire. sNVDA: -0.93% at w33, projected -0.56% at 13:30 UTC open, trending toward zero not toward -1.5% threshold. Stocks: market-hours gated until 13:30 UTC. All three active signals blocked simultaneously by

Sound and disciplined. The agent correctly distinguishes three independent blockers (inventory, sub-threshold, market-hours) across 10 consecutive wakes without churn. Each wake logs the specific blocker — not boilerplate. The narrowing sNVDA trend is tracked accurately wake-over-wake (-0.93% → estimated -0.78% → projected -0.56%). Risk: agent is solving the right problem but the SSV sell leg of t

Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS (2026-06-11T13:30:00Z) — 60s poll fires wake

Fallback at 2026-06-11T15:30:00Z (nextFallbackMin=279 from ~10:51 UTC analysis time)

MISSING: no intra-session dislocation trigger — if sNVDA gaps down sharply pre-open (futures/pre-market), agent won't catch it until 13:30 UTC open fire

All 5 settled deals and both recent fills are ↔ LP-Maker; 109 total deals, 10 open intents, actively quoting swaps near oracle mid

active — +13 deals this cycle, $49.09 bu

Takes sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle; deals 140+141 vs LP-Maker confirm active sNVDA interest — could cross swing-nikita's post

active — nextFallbackMin=3 (imminent fir

sMSFT trim + BTC DCA at market open (nextFallbackMin=191) — overlapping stock universe but likely trimming not buying, so directional mismat

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — wake script polls only clock time (Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS), not order book. Cannot determine whether favorable swap intents appeared and expired between w33 (07:19 UTC) and 13:30 UTC open. Agent has 0 open intents so it posted nothing a taker could fill either.

Fires precisely at US market open (13:30 UTC) — the only moment stock dislocations become tradeable, perfect cadence for a market-hours fader

60s poll interval appropriate — not sub-minute spam, catches the open within one tick

Fallback at 15:30 UTC (2h post-open) ensures the agent wakes even if the open-fire doesn't produce a trade — correct patience

Zero LLM in watcher, PID written, armed=true/pidAlive=true confirms healthy process

No pre-market futures check — a sharp sNVDA gap in futures (e.g. -2%+ pre-open) would cross the threshold before 13:30 UTC and the agent would miss it entirely

SSV sell path is permanently dead (zero inventory) but watcher still writes comments about SSV — minor noise, not a correctness issue

Add a pre-market futures price fetch (e.g. poll sNVDA oracle or a futures feed) starting ~30 min before open; if dislocation already ≥1.5% at 13:00 UTC, fire early rather than waiting for 13:30 UTC — one missed gap-down is more costly than

SSV sell leg permanently dead — zero inventory

SSV sell signal has been +5.72% for multiple cycles. Agent holds 0 SSV and has held 0 for the entire recent history (w26–w33 all log 'SSV blocked by zero inventory'). The sell-stretch leg of the mission cannot fire under any market condition until inventory is acquired.

Either (a) seed agent with SSV inventory so the sell path is live, or (b) update mission/CLAUDE.md to explicitly gate SSV sells on non-zero inventory and acknowledge SSV trades require a prior buy — current mission language implies a two-way fader but the agent is structurally one-directional on SSV

No pre-market dislocation detection

sNVDA projected ~-0.56% at 13:30 UTC open under the current narrowing trend, but futures/pre-market moves could widen dislocation to ≥-1.5% before open. The watcher only checks clock time, so a pre-market gap would be missed until the 13:30 UTC fire.

Add oracle/futures poll in the watcher 30–60 min before open; fire early if threshold already met.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

ETH rival 1512 appeared at 0.31% — below 1% floor, so competitive target is 1%. Oracle drift pushed 1510 to 1.65%, above

13 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781177628; next poll 92s

Summary: GENUINE RESTART CONFIRMED at ~08:06 UTC June 11 after 915-min hard crash (was armed=false/pidAlive=false/$0 burn/0 intents). Wakes w75-w82 (08:06–08:53 UTC) show operator restarted the agent; $4.41 tokens burned in 5h window vs $0 prior, 7 open intents rebuilt, deals still frozen at 38 (no new fills since restart). Gas gate firing repeatedly — quotes undercu

Hard crash reversed — genuine restart at ~08:06 UTC after 915-min outage. No settled deals yet post-restart (38 total unchanged), but the agent is running correctly: 7 open intents live, gas gate correctly firing on 4 of 8 wakes. The block to new deals is structural: rivals out-compete at 1% spread while vulture's bait positions ($3.45–$8.12) can't be refreshed at positive expected value given current gas.

w78/w80/w82: gas ~$1.07–$1.44 to cancel+repost vs $0.04–0.05 marginal edge improvement; rivals quoting 1% vs vulture's 1.3–1.8% on 1432/1443/1450. All 7 recent settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus swaps — no binary/option edges taken since restart.

Sound reasoning, right problem. Gas-gate logic is correctly disciplined (w78: '$1.07 gas >> $0.04 marginal gain'). The pre-expiry repost on 1430/1460 (w81) shows correct mission-awareness. The issue isn't agent reasoning quality — it's that the book economics currently prevent profitable refresh, creating an undercut-but-can't-fix loop. Not a reasoning failure; a structural squeeze.

New takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges, 30s poll)

Quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes cancelCmds)

MISSING: no trigger on deal settlement by counterparties (could miss a taker filling a rival quote that creates a new edge window)

Dominant fill partner — 6 of 7 most recent settled deals; deep equity/crypto inventory creates swap opportunities for vulture's edge-taking

Both edge-take; could compete on same binaries rather than transact — not a natural counterparty unless one makes what the other takes

SSV intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, 78 min remaining) is live — vulture could take if edge ≥1%, but LP-Maker isn't matching it at oracle

Crashed (1292 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false) — no activity, no counterparty flow

Momentum-nikita SSV intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, ~78 min remaining at last data) — edge vs oracle unknown from this data; watcher should have caught it if scan-edges sees it and edge ≥1%. Otherwise no measurable missed opportunities in the w75-w82 window — the gas gate correctly blocked marginal re-quotes.

Pre-seeds known honeypot IDs (779, 836, 869) — prevents watcher from firing on traps

Four distinct triggers (edge, pre-expiry, erosion, fallback) all mission-relevant for a bait+take agent

30s poll with 30s de-bounce is efficient without being sub-minute spam

Zero-LLM in watch loop; 2h fallback is appropriate for patient vulture cadence

check-my-quotes cancelCmds integration means watcher fires exactly when action is warranted

No minimum-position-size filter before gas-gate check — agent repeatedly wakes on w80/w82 to find the same undercut quotes it already knows it can't fix; wastes

seenEdgeIds set grows unbounded across watcher lifetime — long-lived sessions will silently skip edges that were 'seen' earlier but conditions changed

Add a 'stale-undercut backoff': if check-my-quotes returns the same cancelCmds as the prior wake AND gas gate would block all of them, suppress the wake-trigger for min(remaining_ttl/2, 30min) to avoid burning $0.68 LLM calls to conclude 'n

Undercut-but-can't-fix loop burning LLM tokens

Wakes w76/w78/w80/w82 all concluded 'no action' because gas > marginal gain on already-undercut quotes. Each wake costs ~$0.68 LLM. Four no-op wakes = ~$2.72 wasted in 47 min.

In wake script, track which cancelCmds were gas-gated last wake; if identical set returns and TTL > 30 min, skip wake trigger (or extend poll to ~15 min for those specific intents). Alternatively, lower the re-quote position floor so refresh becomes gas-positive at smaller sizes.

seenEdgeIds set never pruned

Set accumulates all seen edge IDs across watcher lifetime. After hours/days, a previously seen edge that re-prices to a new opportunity won't fire (ID already in set).

Store seenEdgeIds as Map<id, timestamp> and evict entries older than edge TTL (~2h). Or reset set on each wake restart.

Rivals consistently undercutting at 1% — structural book compression

1432 ($3.45, 1.3%), 1443 ($4.46, 1.34%), 1450 ($8.12, 1.8%) all out-competed. If rivals can sustain 1% spread profitably, vulture's floor needs re-calibration or the book is permanently crowded out.

Fleet-level: surface which agent(s) are quoting at 1% on these pairs — if it's a misconfigured agent offering unsustainable spreads, that's a fleet issue. If it's fair competition, vulture needs a tighter floor or a differentiated bait angle.

HUB SURGE; BINARY FROZEN

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Momentum-Nikita, Swing-Nikita}

ACTIVE — 109 deals, 12/12 book full, 10 open intents; 6 counterparties; deals 13

STALLED — Engine 1 dark 56 wakes (~112h); taker holds call #118 (exp ~17:37 UTC)

FROZEN — Bear-Yosher hard crash 1412+ min; 0 BinaryBets in 21-item open book; de

OFFLINE — both agents undeployed, 27 consecutive null cycles; not a crash, never

Bear-Yosher hard crash (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 1412+ min dark since before deal-75 betExpiry)

Mimic-Ljuba $63.62 USDC locked across 3 live deals with 0 settlement path; binary market has 0 BinaryBets in open book;

Mimic-Ljuba 16/16 settled deals all ↔ Bear-Yosher; reliableCounterparties=0; 0 BinaryBets across 21-item open book; Bear-Yosher settled_deals frozen at 17

LP-Maker-Matheus full 12/12 book with tight quotes across ETH/BTC/sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL/SSV

Entire fleet swap activity flows through single hub: Stacker-Massimo deals 140+141 (oracle+0.77%), Arb-Hunter-Tom deals

9/16 recent settled entries bilateral with LP-Maker-Matheus; Stacker-Massimo 4/4 lifetime deals ↔ LP-Maker; Arb-Hunter-Tom 9/13 lifetime deals ↔ LP-Maker

Vulture-Andrew quoting 1.3–1.8% spread on pairs where LP-Maker posts ~1%

Gas gate fires on every repricing attempt (cancel+repost $1.07–$1.44 vs $0.04–$0.05 marginal edge improvement); 8 live i

w78/w80/w82 gas readings; Vulture deals frozen at 38 since restart; all 7 recent LP-Maker settled deals show LP taking fills Vulture targets

Option-Writer Engine 1 all three resume gates false (no vol ≥1%, no ranking rotation, no buyer option intents in book) f

Option-Taker correctly idle — 0 new audited options in 920+ min; only live exposure is 2 contracts expiring today; optio

option-writer-matheus settled_deals=17 unchanged w37→w93; 0 buyer intents in 21-item open book; option-taker tokens_5h=0

LP-Maker-Matheus SSV ask at $2.23/SSV vs Momentum-Nikita max tolerance $2.12/SSV — $0.11 gap

Momentum-Nikita intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.11 SSV) stalled 466+ min; prior intent #1327 also expired unfilled; SSV accum

LP-Maker open book: 4 USDC → 1.793 SSV ($2.23/SSV); #1342 visible in open book at 465m remaining; no other SSV seller in book

Bear-Yosher crash locks binary market and deal-75 settlement

Bear-Yosher armed=false/pidAlive=false for 1412+ min (23.5h). Deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 (~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) passed 12+ hours ago with no settlement call. Mimic-Ljuba holds $63.62 USDC locked across 3 live deals — as winning counterparty it has no incentive to initiate, and Bear-Yosher cannot. Recovery requires manual operator intervention.

Bear-Yosher settled_deals frozen at 17; Mimic-Ljuba reliableCounterparties=0, openExposureUsd=0; 0 BinaryBets in 21-item open book

Manually restart Bear-Yosher; operator must separately trigger settlement for deal 75 (betExpiry passed) — neither counterparty can self-initiate given current state

Vulture-Andrew gas-gate trap: spread uncompetitive post-restart

Restarted ~08:06 UTC but all 8 live quotes undercut by LP-Maker (~1% spread vs Vulture's 1.3–1.8%). Cancel+repost gas ($1.07–$1.44) exceeds marginal edge gain ($0.04–$0.05) on every repricing cycle — $11.69 burned post-restart for 0 new fills. Deals frozen at 38.

w78/w80/w82 gas gate logs; $4.41 5h burn vs $0 prior cycle; deals stuck at 38 since restart at 08:06 UTC

Tighten Vulture-Andrew target spreads to ≤1% on LP-competed pairs, OR redirect to pairs LP-Maker does not cover (e.g. non-standard token pairs); alternatively raise gas-gate threshold so repricing only fires when edge improvement > $0.10

Option expiry window opens at 17:32 UTC — 2 contracts at risk

Option-Taker watcher fires nextFallbackMin=349 (~17:32 UTC Jun 11), 5 min before call #118 expiry (~17:37 UTC) and 59 min before put #119 (~18:31 UTC). Engine 1 dark 56 wakes means no new supply; today's expiry is the only active event for this market segment.

option-taker: call #118 strike $203.69 prem $0.25 exp ~17:37 UTC; put #119 strike $201.75 prem $0.23 exp ~18:31 UTC; nextFallbackMin=349

Confirm option-taker watcher fires and settles call #118 before 17:37 UTC; monitor put #119 settlement before 18:31 UTC; review whether Engine 1 gate thresholds should be lowered if buyer demand is structurally absent at current option pricing

Momentum-Nikita SSV intent expiring — $0.11 price gap vs only counterparty

Intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.11 SSV, target $2.12/SSV) open 466+ min with no fill. LP-Maker's current SSV ask is $2.23/SSV — the gap is the blocking mechanism, not market absence. Prior intent #1327 also expired unfilled at similar target.

LP-Maker open book: 4 USDC → 1.793 SSV ($2.23/SSV); #1342 visible in open book; reliableCounterparties=1 (LP-Maker only)

Raise Momentum-Nikita SSV max-price tolerance to $2.25/SSV to match LP-Maker's current ask; 5% upward adjustment unlocks the fill with $0.11 incremental cost on 11 SSV

LP-Maker-Matheus hub at full capacity — 12/12 book, +13 deals this cycle

BTC ask gap resolved w88 (intent #1278 at +15.1bps); 6 active counterparties; deal velocity 96→109. Fleet throughput is now taker-arrival-limited, not LP-quality-limited — LP is healthy.

109 total deals; 10 open intents in book covering all 6 pairs; 6 counterparties in recent settled list

No action required; taker-side depth is the binding constraint — watch for Rebalancer-Lior and Stacker-Massimo fills at 13:30 UTC stock open

Stock open 13:30 UTC: Rebalancer-Lior + Stacker-Massimo both staged

Rebalancer-Lior nextFallbackMin=176 (~14:00 UTC, sMSFT trim + BTC DCA). Stacker-Massimo nextFallbackMin=36 (imminent, sNVDA pipeline active — deals 140+141 already filled at 09:03/09:34 UTC). LP-Maker book covers both target pairs at full depth.

Rebalancer-Lior: armed=true, nextFallbackMin=176, pidAlive=true; Stacker-Massimo: armed=true, nextFallbackMin=36, 2 fills since 09:03 UTC

No action required; confirm LP-Maker sMSFT and sNVDA quotes remain posted at market open

Restart Bear-Yosher immediately and trigger manual settlement for deal 75 (betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed ~12h ago) — this is the single highest-leverage move: restores binary market, unlocks Mimic-Ljuba $63.62 USDC, resumes only active BinaryBet segment

Fix Vulture-Andrew spread to ≤1% on LP-competed pairs or redirect to uncovered pairs — current 1.3–1.8% quotes are systematically undercut, converting $11.69 burn into 0 fills

Raise Momentum-Nikita SSV max-price tolerance to $2.25/SSV — $0.11 gap vs LP-Maker's live ask is the entire blocking mechanism; trivial fix, unlocks stalled 25 USDC intent

Monitor option expiry window 17:32–18:31 UTC Jun 11: confirm option-taker watcher fires and settles call #118 before 17:37 UTC and put #119 before 18:31 UTC

Implement expired-betExpiry auto-settlement trigger in core SDK — deal 75 has been past betExpiry for 12+ hours with both counterparties unable to self-initiate; a core hook that fires settlement when betExpiry passes and deal status is still 'live' would prevent this class of ca

Better — LP-Maker-Matheus added +13 deals this cycle (96→109), Stacker-Massimo broke pre-market hold with 2 sNVDA fills (deals 140+141 vs LP-Maker), Arb-Hunter-Tom remains active in recent settled list; Vulture-Andrew restarted (~08:06 UTC) but gas gate holds all 8 live intents with $11.69 burned an

LP-Maker-Matheus deal surge: 96→109 (+13 this cycle), 10 open intents, $49.09 burn — verify book health and repricing sustainability across pairs

Vulture-Andrew gas gate: 8 intents in open book, $11.69 burned, 0 new fills post-restart — highest-token-spend agent with zero new production

Option-Writer-Matheus ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus [custom] settled in recent deals — determine if new since last run and whether Engine 1 resume gates (vol ≥1%, ranking rotation, buyer option intents) were

Option-Taker-Matheus: call #118 expires ~17:37 UTC Jun 11, put #119 ~18:31 UTC — watcher nextFallbackMin=364 fires ~17:32 UTC, ~5 min before call expiry

Stock open at 13:30 UTC: Rebalancer-Lior (nextFallbackMin=191, sMSFT trim + BTC DCA) and Stacker-Massimo (nextFallbackMin=3, imminent fire) both converging on this event

Binary market: Bear-Yosher 1412 min dark (armed=false/pidAlive=false), Mimic-Ljuba drought unchanged — 0 BinaryBets in 18-item open book

Multiple LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom fills appear in recent settled list — how many are new since the last run's deal count of 15, and is the swap-taking pivot still producing consistent edge or is the spread narrowing?

Still armed=false/pidAlive=false at 1412 min dark — is there any self-recovery path, or is manual operator restart the only fix; what action is needed for deal 75 whose betExpiry epoch (~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) passed ~9.5h ago with no agent aliv

27th consecutive null cycle — any provisioning signal this run, or still bit-for-bit identical to all prior runs?

27th consecutive null cycle — any provisioning signal this run, or still bit-for-bit identical; does index-maker's null state remain the binding dependency?

With +13 deals this cycle (96→109) and 10 open intents across ETH/BTC/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT/USDC/SSV pairs, is the book repriced correctly and sustainably, or is the deal-rate spike driven by one mis-priced pair getting picked off repeatedly?

With Bear-Yosher crashed 1412 min and 0 BinaryBets in the open book, is Mimic-Ljuba correctly idle — or is there any binary-adjacent supply (e.g. Option-Writer-Matheus options, Polymarket-Ljuba shaded binaries) it could pivot to given its m

Did intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV at $2.12, was entering final minutes last run) fill or expire; what is the 1 current open intent, and is the SSV conviction still justified given no SSV sell-side appears in the current open book?

Call #118 expires ~17:37 UTC Jun 11 and put #119 ~18:31 UTC; nextFallbackMin=364 fires ~17:32 UTC — does the watcher have capacity to act on both in a ~54-min window, and has any new option supply from Option-Writer-Matheus appeared since w

Recent deals include Option-Writer-Matheus ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus [custom] settled — is this the same settlement already in the prior summary or a new deal since last run; did any of the three Engine 1 resume gates (vol ≥1%, ranking rotatio

sAAPL held at stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / horizon Jun 12 20:00 UTC; with stocks opening at 13:30 UTC today (~3h from data capture), does current Pyth sAAPL price still leave sufficient upside to the forward, or has pre-open drift moved

Rebalancer-Lior ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus and ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom deals appear in recent settled list — are these the w44/w45 BTC fills already counted in prior summary or new fills; is nextFallbackMin=191 correctly timed for the 13:30 UTC stock open

nextFallbackMin=3 means firing is imminent; LP-Maker has '12 USDC → 0.060124 sNVDA' live in the open book right now — will Stacker take that ask (oracle+0.77% matches its last two fills exactly) or post its own bid, and is two consecutive f

sNVDA was estimated ~-0.78% dislocation at ~09:51 UTC vs -1.5% buy threshold (0.72pp gap); with stock open at 13:30 UTC, has any move since last wake (210 min ago) shifted the dislocation or SSV sell signal (+5.72% last recorded) enough to

8 intents live in open book (sMSFT, ETH, BTC, sAAPL, sNVDA), $11.69 burned, deals frozen at 38 — which specific intents are triggering the gas gate or being undercut by LP-Maker, and is any one of the 8 close enough to fair value that a tak

bear-yosher: Manual operator restart required — 1412 min hard crash (armed=false/pidAlive=false); also resolve deal 75 (betExpiry passed ~9.5h ago) which no alive agent can expire or settle

vulture-andrew: Diagnose gas gate — identify which of the 8 live intents trigger it and whether raising the gas price cap or tightening quote spreads unlocks fills; $11.69 burn with 0 production is un

Binary market: Bear-Yosher crash leaves Mimic-Ljuba (16 deals, $63.62 locked) fully stranded; either restore Bear-Yosher or provision an alternative BinaryBet poster to end the drought

option-taker-matheus: Call #118 expires ~17:37 UTC Jun 11 — confirm watcher fires at ~17:32 UTC and agent has capacity to act; do not let an in-the-money option lapse unexercised

index-maker + index-taker: 26+ null cycles with $0 lifetime tokens — provision if IndexBasket market is intended; otherwise mark decommissioned to remove noise from fleet health metrics