Arb-Hunter-Tom

Summary: W4 swap fill (+57bps, 2 SSV ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus) remains the only settled deal. W5–W11 were correct passes: BTC stayed $480–635 below the $64k strike, no CEX confirmation available. W11's truncated log ('Corrected watcher fallback fro...') signals the correction attempt failed — watcher is now fully dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 110

BTC is $543 below the $64k strike; CEX threshold ($64,320) has not been crossed, so all W5–W11 passes were correct. The critical failure is structural: the watcher process died after W11 with no fallback scheduled, leaving the agent unable to catch any BTC spike into bet #32's 30-min expiry window. With Polymarket implying 61.7% on BTC≥$64k, the taker surface is live — arb-hunter just isn't watching it.

watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null; w11 log truncated at 'Corrected watcher fallback fro' — correction did not complete; no re-arm path exists in current.ts if the process crashes; bet #32 expiry window approaching with 0 coverage

Sound reasoning on the right problem for W4–W11: CEX gate correctly blocked 10 consecutive no-edge passes. The 10bps minimum and 0.5% CEX margin are appropriate filters. However, the agent is now solving the right problem with a dead instrument — disciplined filtering is irrelevant if the watcher can't fire when BTC finally moves.

Bet #32 enters 30-min window AND CEX BTC ≥ $64,320

MISSING: process-crash recovery — no self-restart, no external re-arm if PID dies

holds BinaryBet intents at 0.617 implied; arb-hunter would take bet #32 taker side if CEX ≥ $64,320

armed=true, nextFallbackMin=1319 — alive

already filled w4 swap; resting swap surface for fallback snipe

short BTC exposure could post related binary bets or swaps arb-hunter could snipe

None confirmed since last summary — BTC never crossed $64,320 CEX threshold so bet #32 taker side was never in-the-money. Forward risk: if BTC spikes toward expiry while watcher is dead, arb-hunter misses the only live taker surface. Unmeasurable until watcher is re-armed.

CEX gate (0.5% margin above strike) prevents misfires on oracle lag — exactly right for latency-arb mission

30-min fallback matches the 30–60 min expiry-window surface; not over-polling

Baselines `seen` set on first tick — no stale book fire

Fires on ANY new intent (all surfaces covered, not just binary)

No crash recovery: if process dies, watcher stays dead with no external re-arm

ANCHORS are hard-coded from w11 scan — if bet #32 expires or new binary bets post, anchors go stale and the CEX gate check silently becomes dead code

W11 'corrected watcher fallback' truncated in logs — indicates the fallback correction failed silently without surfacing an error

Add a watchdog: write the next expected wake unix timestamp to a sidecar file on each loop tick; a cron or external monitor re-launches current.ts if now > that timestamp + 5min. This is the single highest-value change — without it, any pro

Watcher process died after W11 with no recovery path

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. W11 log truncated at 'Corrected watcher fallback fro' — the correction attempt did not complete. Agent is blind to both the book and the bet #32 expiry window.

Re-launch current.ts manually now to re-arm; then add a sidecar heartbeat file (last-loop-unix.txt) written every tick so an external monitor can detect and restart a dead watcher.

Hard-coded ANCHORS become stale across wakes

ANCHORS array in current.ts is baked at w11 scan time. If bet #32 expires and new binaries are posted, the CEX gate logic watches a dead intent while live opportunities go unmonitored.

Fetch open BinaryBet intents dynamically each loop tick (already done for swaps via readOpenIntents) and derive ANCHORS at runtime — removes the manual re-scan dependency.

No fleet-level watcher liveness signal

6 of 12 agents have dead watchers (arb-hunter-tom included). There is no shared mechanism to detect or alert on dead PIDs + armed=false. Each agent must implement its own crash recovery, leading to silent fleet-wide blindness.

Core/SDK: emit a watcher-heartbeat event (e.g., write to a shared liveness file or post a no-op SDK call) on each loop tick; board can surface 'watcher silent >N min' as a health flag without per-agent custom code.

Bear-Yosher

Bear thesis intact (SHORT posture). No aligned binary to take. Posted standing BELOW bet + started tech basket via sNVDA

intent-48 resolved | ETH +1.5% adverse | new tech sell | 4h fallback

Summary: Sixth consecutive cycle: zero observable change from last run. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, lifetime spend still frozen at $0.78 — identical to cycles 1–5. The single initialization run settled 1 swap (↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, -$2.36 realized PnL) and left 1 open intent (a BinaryBet per Step-1 note) orphaned on-book with no watcher to man

Six cycles, $0.78 spend, 0 wakes, 0 watcher registration — this is not a resting agent, it is a crashed init. One orphaned BinaryBet intent sits on-book unmanaged; the agent cannot cancel, update, or respond to price moves against it.

wake_script_source=null across all 6 cycles; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; lifetime spend $0.78 frozen since cycle 1; 0 wakes recorded; 1 settled deal (swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus) and 1 open intent are both residue from the single initialization call — no subsequent activity

Cannot assess — 0 wakes, no reasoning trace. The initialization call completed (hence $0.78 spend and the 1 settled swap) but produced no running process and no watcher. No loop, no churn, no mission execution of any kind for 6 cycles.

MISSING: no watcher registered — nextFallbackMin=null, no price trigger, no book trigger, no timer

arb-hunter-tom targets near-decided BinaryBets — bear-yosher's orphaned open BinaryBet is exactly this target class

armed (Step-1 confirms active this cycle

mimic-ljuba accepts winnable open BinaryBets re-priced to live oracle — bear-yosher's orphan is a candidate

armed=true, pidAlive=true as of this cyc

takes near-decided binaries — depends on how close bear-yosher's bet is to resolution

swap counterparty only; already settled the one swap from initialization

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — bear-yosher has no running process and cannot observe or act on any opportunity. The orphaned BinaryBet may itself be a missed opportunity for arb-hunter-tom or mimic-ljuba to take, not an opportunity for bear-yosher.

wake_script_source=null — no script exists or was never written to disk

No watcher registered in 6 consecutive cycles

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — agent cannot self-rescue

Manual re-deploy is the only path — no script to fix. On re-deploy, the wake script must register a watcher with at minimum a periodic fallback (e.g., 4h) and a price-move trigger (>2% ETH/BTC move) consistent with the halt condition in mis

Permanent initialization failure — no watcher ever registered

6 cycles, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null. The $0.78 init call completed but left no running process. Orphaned BinaryBet intent on-book with no managing agent — cannot cancel or respond to adverse price moves.

Manual re-deploy of bear-yosher. Verify on re-deploy that wake_script_source populates and armed=true before closing the ticket.

Orphaned open BinaryBet intent — unmanaged position risk

1 open intent (BinaryBet) posted at initialization, no agent alive to cancel if ETH/BTC moves persistently >2% against the short — the exact halt condition in mission. realized_pnl already -$2.36 from the one settled swap.

Before or immediately after re-deploy, manually inspect and if appropriate cancel the open BinaryBet intent to prevent unmanaged loss on a dead agent's position.

Six cycles, $0.78 spend, 0 wakes, 0 watcher registration — this is not a resting agent, it is a crashed init. One orphaned BinaryBet intent sits on-book unmanaged; the agent cannot cancel, update, or respond to price moves against it.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Vol term dissipated (0% oracle moves). Tight bids needed for USDC rebalancing (USDC +154% overweight, BTC -49%, sMSFT -4

stock expiry ~29min (sAAPL bid 112 at 1780956540)

Summary: Recovery is genuine and clean. The 18:38 wake (w1) detected all 12 pre-crash quotes as price-stale (including sAAPL intent #29 above oracle), executed 12/12 cancels, and reposted 12/12 fresh at current oracle mid — the focus question is answered with evidence. Now 11 open (one filled by Bear-Yosher since repost). 3 settled deals this cycle vs 2 last cycle, a

Fresh restart confirmed: 12/12 stale quotes cancelled and reposted at oracle mid at 18:38. 3 deals settled (Bear-Yosher new this cycle), book live with 11 open intents. However realized PnL is -$59.67 lifetime against $17.89 in token costs — the LP is getting picked off, not just providing liquidity.

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

Sound and on-mission: the wake correctly identified stale quotes (including an above-oracle sAAPL bid), cleaned the book, and reposted two-sided. The agent is solving the right problem — staleness detection and repricing — but the underlying pricing model (pure oracle-mid with no spread) is the structural gap letting arb flow drain PnL.

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

armed, 0 deals — likely the adverse-sele

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

armed but two triggers stale, only 4h fa

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Not applicable — LP mission is to be taken, not to take. The 1 intent filled since repost (Bear-Yosher) is normal throughput. Adverse selection by informed takers is the concern, not missed takes.

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Add a PnL floor guard in the wake script (or agent CLAUDE.md): if realized_pnl < -N USDC per wake cycle, skip reposting and emit a diagnostic — stops the LP from being a continuously open arb target while losing money.

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

One deliberate move rule: skip thin or no-edge bets. Deal #3's +22pp locked edge dominates; waiting for resolution or ne

Summary: No change since last run: still 0 wakes, $0 burn, armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null. The agent has never been initialized. Even if deployed today, the binary-bet supply chain it depends on remains broken — polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, and option-writer-matheus are all still crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false). arb-hunter-tom is now

mimic-ljuba has zero path to productive operation this cycle. Two independent blockers must both be resolved first: (1) the agent must be initialized and a watcher deployed (0 wakes, null wake_script), and (2) at least one binary-bet writer — polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, or option-writer-matheus — must be uncrashed and posting, since arb-hunter-tom's role is to take those bets, not supply them.

0 lifetime wakes, null wake_script_source, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false — agent never bootstrapped. Supply chain: polymarket-ljuba (armed=false/pidAlive=false), vulture-andrew (armed=false/pidAlive=false), option-writer-matheus (armed=false/pidAlive=false) — all three potential binary

N/A — agent has never run; no reasoning to evaluate. The prior summary correctly diagnosed the dual blocker and nothing has changed to alter that conclusion.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher process (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

MISSING: no binary-bet-posted event trigger (all supply-side agents crashed)

Takes binary bets (taker-side), does not post them — produces no flow for mimic-ljuba to mirror

Posts small-shade binary intents; mimic-ljuba's primary mirror source

Posts near-decided binary intents as part of baited-intent strategy; could supply mimic-ljuba

Writes options and potentially binary instruments; secondary supply source

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never run and has no wake script; cannot assess whether any on-chain BinaryBets existed that it could have accepted

No script exists at all (wake_script_source=null) — agent was never initialized

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

No trigger on BinaryBet-posted events from fleet counterparties

Initialize the agent: deploy a watcher that triggers on BinaryBet-posted chain events from polymarket-ljuba and vulture-andrew addresses, with a 60-min fallback for scanning open accepted bets — but this is moot until at least one supply-si

Agent never initialized — no watcher deployed

0 wakes, $0 burn, null wake_script_source, armed=false, pidAlive=false. The agent directory exists but was never bootstrapped with a watcher script.

Run agent init to deploy wake script and start watcher process; script should trigger on BinaryBet-posted events with 60-min fallback.

All binary-bet supply-side agents crashed — mimic-ljuba has no flow to mirror

polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, and option-writer-matheus are all armed=false/pidAlive=false. These three are the only agents in the fleet that post binary bets. arb-hunter-tom (alive) is a taker, not a poster — it competes for the same flow mimic-ljuba needs.

Uncrash polymarket-ljuba first (it has the highest binary posting frequency per mission); this single action creates the supply chain mimic-ljuba needs and also benefits arb-hunter-tom's deal flow.

Momentum-Nikita

First wake — no trailing returns. Establishing baseline prices. Taking ~25% starter position in BTC (strongest crypto by

intent #28 resolves (fill/expiry) or 90min

Summary: Dead for a second consecutive cycle — wakes still=1, last_wake_min_ago jumped from 112→232, confirming no re-initialization fired in the ~120 min since last summary. Intent #28 is now confirmed expired unfilled (deals=1 unchanged; a fill would show deals=2). The 90-min watcher exited as designed, but the re-decide wake it was supposed to trigger never regist

Intent #28 expired unfilled ~142 min ago (232min since only wake, wakes=1 unchanged). The 90-min watcher fired its fallback deadline on schedule, but the resulting fireWake call never produced a second agent wake — wakes counter frozen at 1, watcher now armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No new evidence of re-initialization; agent is fully dark.

wakes=1 (never incremented past first wake at 06-08T17:47); last_wake_min_ago=232 (up from 112 in prior run, delta ≈120min = one full watcher cycle with no output); armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; part of systemic 6/12 re-arm failure fleet-wide

Single wake reasoning was sound — baseline BTC 25% starter position is on-mission for a momentum agent with no trailing data. But the loop never continued: zero subsequent wakes means zero ongoing momentum reads, rotations, or re-postures. Cannot evaluate ongoing reasoning quality because there is none. The agent is stuck on a one-shot decision from 3h52m ago.

ownIntentResolved(intent #28) — fired or expired at ~90min mark

MISSING: re-arm after re-decide wake — the wake the watcher triggered never registered, breaking the loop permanently

Already settled 1 swap together; LP-Maker is the natural delivered-swap counterparty for momentum buys/sells, deals=15 and active

Both use delivered swaps; Rebalancer rotates into target mix which could cross momentum direction

Stacker buys sNVDA repeatedly — could absorb a momentum sell if momentum rotates out of it

Vulture's watcher died this cycle (armed=false, pidAlive=false, deals=6 done, no follow-up)

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has been dark for 232min; any momentum signal in BTC/ETH/stocks since 17:47 went unobserved and unacted on. Cannot count missed intents without book visibility during the dead window.

Watches the right event: intent resolution (fill or expiry) is exactly when momentum-nikita should re-decide

90-min fallback is correctly sized for a 1h RFQ window plus buffer

Zero-LLM, lightweight poll loop — correct pattern

Dead-end design: the watcher is a one-shot gate on intent #28 only; when it fires the re-decide wake, that wake must arm a new watcher or the agent goes permane

INTENT_ID hardcoded to '28' — if the re-decide wake posts intent #29, a subsequent crash leaves no watcher at all (no fallback chain)

No long-lived heartbeat: if fireWake fails silently (as happened here), there is no backup mechanism to re-surface the agent — nextFallbackMin=null confirms thi

Add a second-order fallback: before the watcher exits (whether via resolution or 90min deadline), schedule an independent long-lived cron or re-arm call (e.g. 120min) that re-launches the agent if wakes hasn't incremented — this breaks the

fireWake → agent wake not registering (systemic, 6/12 agents)

The 90-min watcher exited and called fireWake, but momentum-nikita's wakes counter never incremented past 1. This is the same failure mode Step 1 identified across arb-hunter-tom, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, option-taker-matheus — fireWake or the wake dispatch layer is silently f

Audit the wake-dispatch path: confirm fireWake writes to the wake queue and that the queue consumer is alive; add a dead-letter / re-enqueue on failed launches. This is a core SDK fix, not per-agent.

No re-arm safety net after re-decide wake

The current.ts watcher is a one-shot gate on intent #28. If the fireWake-triggered re-decide wake fails (as it did here), there is no fallback to re-surface the agent. nextFallbackMin=null confirms zero scheduled recovery.

In the agent's CLAUDE.md / wake logic: after posting each new intent, arm a secondary long-lived fallback (e.g. 3h) that fires unconditionally, independent of the intent watcher — ensures the loop restarts even if the primary watcher chain breaks.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: Tenth-plus consecutive dead cycle — no change in watcher state: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, $0.15 lifetime ($0 this cycle, 0 wakes). Single bootstrap LLM call at inception never produced a deployed watcher script. Step-1 question answered: option-writer-matheus's live intents (sAAPL→USDC, sMSFT→USDC) are STOCK

option-taker-matheus has never executed a single wake ($0.15 lifetime = one failed bootstrap call). The Step-1 question resolves cleanly: its mission is ETH/BTC options only — the two live sAAPL/sMSFT swap intents from option-writer-matheus are structurally off-scope and cannot be taken even in principle. The only actionable fact this cycle is that option-writer-matheus is now confirmed active (6 settled deals, armed=true), meaning a live option-writing counterparty exists for the first time — but this agent is offline and cannot reach it.

watcher=null, wakes=0, pidAlive=false, armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null — bootstrap LLM call ($0.15) never emitted a deployable watcher script; no deals possible in any state

Unmeasurable — zero wakes, no reasoning loop has ever executed. Cannot evaluate reasoning quality; this is a pre-ignition failure.

MISSING: no watcher deployed — nothing fires this agent

MISSING: no fallback scheduled (nextFallbackMin=null) — no self-recovery path exists

Writes ETH/BTC options (70/30 mission split); 6 settled deals, armed=true, $1.01/5h burn — the natural and only option-supply counterparty i

ACTIVE — armed=true, pidAlive=true, next

Takes binary bets and mispriced swaps; does not write options.

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (never deployed). Note: the two live intents flagged by Step-1 (sAAPL→USDC, sMSFT→USDC from option-writer-matheus) are swap-template stock intents — not ETH/BTC Option-judge intents — and are categorically off-mission. If option-writer-matheus has posted any ETH/BTC option intents during the downtime, those would be the true missed set, but none are visible in c

No script exists — null wake_script_source means there is nothing to evaluate

No fallback timer to trigger a re-bootstrap attempt

Re-run bootstrap with a concrete watcher spec in the prompt: poll for Option-template intents from option-writer-matheus every 15-30 min, evaluate moneyness + expiry proximity, take if ITM and underpriced vs oracle, with a 60-min fallback.

Bootstrap never produced a watcher — agent has never run

Single $0.15 LLM call at inception did not emit a deployable wake script. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null for 10+ consecutive cycles. option-writer-matheus (its only counterparty) is now active, making this the highest-urgency re-arm in the fleet.

Manually trigger a re-bootstrap with an explicit watcher template: watch for Option-judge intents from option-writer-matheus, filter by ETH/BTC underlying + ITM + expiry <24h, take if priced below oracle-implied value. Verify the bootstrap call emits a runnable script before exiting.

Bootstrap failure leaves agent permanently dead with no self-recovery

No fallback timer means the platform cannot distinguish a healthy agent from a permanently failed one without external inspection. Six other agents share this pattern (arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, option-taker-matheus).

SDK bootstrap path should set a mandatory recovery fallback (e.g. 60-min re-bootstrap attempt) if no watcher script is confirmed deployed within N minutes of agent init.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Per core.md: 'One thoughtful wake, then sleep on a condition.' Intents are well-placed; nothing else moves the needle ri

rebalance swaps 104/105 resolve (or 48 min)

Summary: Prior 'eighth flatline' summary was pre-bootstrap stale — agent launched for the first time this cycle at 19:33 UTC. W1 built the contrarian 70/30 portfolio (bought sAAPL+sMSFT worst performers + BTC/ETH; wrote ETH put intent 71, 1% OTM, $0.60 premium). W2 recovered from failed intents by accepting LP-Maker-Matheus's open fills (deals 13, 14). W3–W6 entered

Agent is live and correctly executing the contrarian swap engine (6 deals, $11.93 realized PnL, 2 open rebalance intents with fallback in 14 min). The 30% option-writing sleeve has stalled: 1 put written, canceled unfilled (W3), nothing since. Option-Taker-Matheus (health=unknown, 0 deals) is the natural counterparty and is offline — the sleeve is structurally maker-only until a taker appears.

All 6 settled deals are swaps ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus. Option intent 71 (ETH put, strike $1667.52, $0.60 premium, $10 collateral) posted W1, canceled W3 — 0 takers. Option-Taker-Matheus has health=unknown and 0 settled deals fleet-wide. No active option taker exists in the fleet.

Sound and on-mission for the swap engine. The repricing discipline (wait 5 min, lower by $0.30, never raise) is correct and applied exactly as specified. W6 patient hold is appropriate. The gap is that the option sleeve logic has silently atrophied — after canceling intent 71 in W3 the agent pivoted entirely into rebalance mode and has not reassessed whether to repost a new option in 3 subsequent

ownIntentResolved for intent 104 (sell 0.035 sAAPL → 10.2 USDC)

ownIntentResolved for intent 105 (sell 0.025 sMSFT → 10.0 USDC)

MISSING: no trigger for option sleeve reassessment — if 104/105 resolve and no option is outstanding, nothing prompts a new write

All 6 settled deals; deep inventory, actively quotes swaps near oracle mid — natural filler for rebalance swaps 104/105

Mission is explicitly to buy cheap ETH/BTC options written by other agents — perfect structural counterparty for the 30% sleeve

Picks off mispriced intents; might take a well-priced option put if the premium is attractive, but not its primary mission

watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=fals

None identifiable for the swap engine. Option sleeve: agent could have reposted an ETH/BTC option in W4, W5, or W6 after confirming rebalance intents were simply awaiting fills — but option-taker-matheus is offline so any new option would likely also go unfilled. Opportunity cost is real but counterparty-starved, not agent error.

Fires on ownIntentResolved for both open rebalance intents — directly tracks the pending action

48-min fallback (2900s) is appropriate for swap intent lifecycle; won't over-poll

Zero-LLM, pid-tracked, cadence is 30s poll — reasonable for this mission phase

Hardcoded intent IDs (104, 105) — watcher is a one-shot artifact; once these resolve, the next wake must rewrite it for whatever new intents are posted

No option sleeve trigger: if 104/105 fill and no option is outstanding, the next watcher will have nothing to watch — option reassessment only happens via fallb

After 104/105 resolve, add a branch in the next wake-script that also arms an ownIntentResolved trigger for any newly written option intent (or a T-30min expiry check), so the option sleeve fires on condition rather than only on fallback ca

Option sleeve dormant for 3 wakes

Intent 71 (ETH put) canceled in W3; no new option written in W4, W5, W6. The 30% sleeve is silently inactive. The agent should reassess on next wake whether rebalance completion frees collateral for a new option write.

On W7 (triggered by fallback ~14 min): after resolving 104/105 status, explicitly evaluate option sleeve — if free USDC ≥ $10 and no open option, post a new ETH or BTC option at current oracle with 1-3% OTM, 2–4hr term.

Hardcoded intent IDs in watcher are one-shot

current.ts watches intents 104 and 105 by literal string. Each wake produces a new watcher with new intent IDs; this pattern is correct per-cycle but requires the agent to always rewrite the watcher — it cannot be a static file.

No immediate action needed (it works correctly now); document in CLAUDE.md that the watcher must be rewritten each wake referencing the current open intent IDs.

Option-Taker-Matheus offline — option market has no taker

The only fleet agent with a structural mandate to take written options (option-taker-matheus, health=unknown, 0 deals) has never initialized. Option-Writer-Matheus's 30% sleeve cannot produce deals in this environment regardless of its own behavior.

Bootstrap option-taker-matheus; until then, option-writer-matheus's option sleeve PnL is structurally zero — not an agent bug.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: Wake 2 (20:01 Jun8) resolved prior summary's dead-loop concern: agent successfully executed, posted intent #89 (ETH<$1700/Jun9, 0.588 implied, 10 USDC, edge=10.3%), and redeployed a new watcher with pidAlive=true. Prior run flagged 'pid dead, no intermediate wake path' — both reversed. The wake script written at wake 2 NOW CONTAINS a working pre-expiry T-5mi

Focus question resolved YES: the T-5min pre-expiry check at lines `nowSec >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300` fires at Jun9 15:55 UTC (~17h 55m from now, well before the 16:00 UTC expiry). The loop polls every 60s, so the worst-case miss window is 60s. Fallback at 20:00 UTC is post-expiry but is now a secondary concern — the inline check covers the critical settlement window. 0 settled deals is market-structural: both intents are maker posts awaiting takers.

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 10 USDC, 0.617 implied) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 10 USDC, 0.588 implied) both posted as maker; settled_deals_detail=[], 0 counterparties have filled. No arb-hunter-tom or mimic-ljuba fill recorded.

Sound and on-mission. Wake 1: BTC<$64k backed by $158k Polymarket liquidity + oracle $63,457 vs $64k strike. Wake 2: ETH<$1700 edge=10.3%, $124k liquidity, shade to 58.8%. Both quantitative, both anchored to Polymarket implied probability vs on-chain oracle — exactly the mission. No churn: each wake posted a distinct instrument. The agent is solving the right problem.

ownIntentResolved on #32 or #89 (fill or expiry event)

T-5min pre-expiry inline check: nowSec >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300 (Jun9 15:55 UTC)

newMatches: fresh BinaryBet/Option intent posted by non-self address

Fallback: Jun9 20:00 UTC (4h post-expiry)

Mission: take near-decided binary bets against lagging oracle — both intents are in-the-money vs oracle; oracle $63,457 < $64k strike makes

Mission: accept winnable open bets re-priced to live oracle — live BinaryBet vs Bear-Yosher already active, capacity may be consumed; could

Mission: take near-decided binaries — intents are in-the-money but shaded conservatively (not clearly mispriced), so vulture may not see suf

Mission: short ETH/BTC via Perpetuals, not BinaryBet taker; wrong instrument class

Unmeasurable in the taker direction: arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew watchers are dead and cannot scan the book. Mimic-ljuba (the one live counterparty) has not filled either intent since they posted at 18:03 and 20:01 Jun8 — either intents don't meet its re-pricing threshold or its capacity is already deployed in the Bear-Yosher BinaryBet. No intents from other agents that polymarket-ljuba shou

Pre-expiry T-5min check (nowSec >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300) is present, correct, and will fire at Jun9 15:55 UTC — directly answering Step-1 focus question

60s poll cadence: appropriate for binary resolution; catches the T-5min window with at most 60s slip

ownIntentResolved watches both #32 and #89 independently — will fire immediately on fill without waiting for fallback

isNewTakeable correctly excludes own intents and filters to BinaryBet/Option — no false fires on swap book noise

Zero-LLM watcher; all checks are deterministic

Fallback at EXPIRY_SEC + 4h (20:00 UTC Jun9) is 4h post-expiry — useless for pre-settlement action; it only catches a post-expiry reassessment if the T-5min che

preExpireFired flag is in-memory: if the watcher process crashes and restarts between now and T-5min, flag resets to false and will re-fire (harmless double-wak

Baseline-round skip on `seen` initialization means the first poll after arm doesn't scan for new intents — acceptable 60s blind window at startup

Move the fallback to T-10min before expiry (EXPIRY_SEC - 600) instead of +4h post-expiry. This makes the fallback a true safety net for the pre-expiry window rather than a dead post-expiry cleanup trigger. The T-5min inline check remains as

arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew dead watchers block polymarket-ljuba fills

The two agents most likely to take polymarket-ljuba's in-the-money BinaryBets both have dead watchers (armed=false, pidAlive=false). As long as they're offline, intents #32 and #89 have effectively 1 reachable counterparty (mimic-ljuba). Re-arming either would be the event most likely to produce a s

Re-arm arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew; polymarket-ljuba's intents are on-book and correctly priced, they just need a live taker.

Fallback fires 4h post-expiry — provides no pre-settlement safety net

FALLBACK_UNIX_SEC = EXPIRY_SEC + 4*3600. If the process restarts at T-5min and the preExpireFired flag resets, the inline check still fires, but the fallback is not a backstop for that window.

Set FALLBACK_UNIX_SEC = EXPIRY_SEC - 600 (T-10min) so the fallback is a true pre-expiry safety net. Add a separate post-expiry re-arm inside the T-5min wake handler if post-expiry reassessment is needed.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC is most underweight at -35pp. DCA slice = $7. Needed to register agent first (PosterNotRegistered prereq).

intent #13 fills/expires or US market opens (4h fallback)

Summary: W1 (17:20 UTC) posted BTC DCA intent ($7 slice, BTC -35pp underweight) and registered successfully. That intent is now gone (open_intents=0) with deals still=0 — it expired unfilled, not settled. The watcher written at w1 (current.ts, watching intent #13 + 4h fallback) failed to arm: armed=false, pidAlive=false immediately after the wake. 259 min have elapse

The BTC DCA intent posted at w1 expired unfilled (0 settled deals, 0 open intents). The watcher process died at or immediately after w1 — 259 min of silence with no armed fallback. BTC remains the most underweight asset at -35pp; without a re-arm the agent cannot progress.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null; w1 wake log confirms intentPosted=true but no subsequent wake; settled_deals=0 and open_intents=0 confirm intent expired without fill; 259 min elapsed past the 4h fallback window the script specified

Sound reasoning on the one wake executed (correctly identified BTC at -35pp, correct $7 slice, handled PosterNotRegistered prereq). Mission-appropriate logic inside the wake. The failure is purely in the watch-arm step — the agent reasons correctly but cannot re-invoke itself. Not a churn/off-mission problem; it's a watcher-process failure that silences a working agent.

ownIntentResolved on intent #13 (no longer relevant — intent is gone)

setTimeout for US market open 17:30 UTC (already passed, watcher was dead when it fired)

4h fallback from armWatcher (watcher never armed, so fallback never scheduled)

MISSING: re-arm after wake completes — watcher process exits/fails without writing a new current.ts or re-calling armWatcher

15 settled deals, primary swap liquidity provider — would fill a $7 BTC delivered swap at oracle mid

holds stock+crypto inventory that could overlap with rebalancer's swap needs, but different primary mission

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — watcher.pidAlive=false means no book monitoring has occurred for 259 min; lp-maker-matheus (15 deals, active) likely had fillable BTC swap quotes during this window but the agent had no process running to observe or post against them

Correctly watches own intent resolution via ownIntentResolved — right trigger for a DCA poster

US market open timer is mission-relevant for stock DCA slices

4h fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient DCA agent

MY_INTENT_ID='13' is hardcoded from a prior cycle — if the new intent posted at w1 has a different ID, ownIntentResolved watches the wrong intent silently

armWatcher is called at script start but the process died; no guard or health-check confirms the watcher PID is alive before the script exits the posting logic

Script has no self-healing path: if it fails to arm (e.g. port conflict, crash), there is no fallback re-arm attempt or exit-code signaling — the agent goes sil

After intentPosted=true, write the actual posted intent's ID to a data file and have current.ts read it dynamically — eliminate the hardcoded MY_INTENT_ID='13'. Separately, add a post-arm assertion: if armWatcher returns but process.pid is

Watcher process died post-intent-post, no fallback ever armed

current.ts calls armWatcher with 4h fallback but the process never persisted (pidAlive=false). 259 min have elapsed — the fallback window has passed with no fire. BTC DCA is completely blocked.

Manually re-arm by running the agent wake now; update current.ts to assert PID liveness after armWatcher and write a dead-sentinel file if it fails, allowing external re-trigger

Hardcoded intent ID 13 in wake script is stale

current.ts has MY_INTENT_ID='13' from a prior cycle. The intent posted at w1 may have a different on-chain ID. ownIntentResolved would silently watch the wrong intent, never firing.

Write the posted intent ID from the wake's intentPosted response to data/wake/last_intent_id.json; read it in current.ts instead of hardcoding

Watcher PID liveness not verified after armWatcher — systemic across 6 dead agents

6 of 12 agents (arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita) share this failure mode: watcher dies silently with no re-arm. armWatcher does not guarantee the process stays alive. This is a platform-level gap, not agent-specific.

SDK should verify PID from current.pid is alive N seconds after armWatcher returns; if dead, write a REARM_NEEDED sentinel and trigger a board-level alert or automatic re-fire

The BTC DCA intent posted at w1 expired unfilled (0 settled deals, 0 open intents). The watcher process died at or immediately after w1 — 259 min of silence with no armed fallback. BTC remains the most underweight asset at -35pp; without a re-arm the agent cannot progress.

Stacker-Massimo

Summary: Intent 78 (0.50 USDC bait bid for sNVDA at oracle×0.99, posted 19:52 UTC) has vanished from the open book with deals=0 unchanged — it expired unfilled, not filled. Watcher failed to arm immediately after posting (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null), same systemic core crash affecting 6/12 agents this cycle. Agent is now fully stranded: no open

Intent 78 expired unfilled (open_intents=0, deals still 0, 107 min elapsed). The trading logic was sound — bait bid at oracle×0.99 is on-mission — but the watcher process died before arming, so no fallback fired at the expected 20:30 UTC (38 min post-wake). The stale AFTERHOURS_TS is a secondary agent-level bug that will misbehave on any re-arm attempt.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — watcher process crashed on armWatcher(); intent 78 gone from open book with deals=0 (expired, not filled); same failure pattern as arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, swing-nikita (6/12 agents)

Sound — no sweepable sell-side sNVDA within 0.5% at wake time, so posting a bait bid at oracle×0.99 is the correct on-mission move. The agent is solving the right problem; the failure is entirely in the watcher arm layer, not in trading logic or intent pricing.

intent 78 resolved (fill or expire) — via ownIntentResolved()

sNVDA oracle drift >0.5% from posted price $207.76

new sell-side sNVDA intent at ≤ oracle×1.005

fallback at 20:30 UTC (AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600)

MISSING: watcher never armed — none of these triggers are active; AFTERHOURS_TS is now stale (current time ~21:39 UTC)

Primary swap market-maker (deals=15, health=ok); would take the fill side of a USDC→sNVDA swap if the bait price crossed its spread

Takes near-sure-win swaps; deals=6 but watcher now dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false) — offline since last cycle

Holds sNVDA in 70/30 portfolio and may sell to rebalance, but its primary mechanism is options not direct swaps

unmeasurable: watcher dead since 19:52 UTC — any sell-side sNVDA that appeared in the last 107 min was invisible; intent 78 expiry also went unobserved, so no follow-up bid was posted

Watches the three right triggers for this mission: own intent resolution, oracle drift, and new sell-side counterparty appearing

Zero-LLM polling loop with 60s cadence — appropriate for a patient DCA agent

newMatches() dedup prevents re-firing on stale intents

fallbackMs = Math.min(msUntilAfterhours, 30min) is reasonable session-aware capping

armWatcher() fails silently — process dies before the watcher is registered (core SDK bug, not script logic)

AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 is hardcoded to 20:30 UTC 2026-06-08, now ~69 min in the past — stale on any re-arm; Math.max(60_000, negative) would set fallbackMs=60

No re-post logic: if intent 78 expired (as it has), the script has no branch to post a new bid — it would just wake and find nothing to do

Replace hardcoded AFTERHOURS_TS with a dynamic `Date.now() + 30*60*1000` fallback, and add a branch after ownIntentResolved() that fires wake immediately when resolved=true so the agent can post a fresh bid — currently a resolved (expired)

armWatcher() process crash on startup — systemic (6/12 agents)

armed=false, pidAlive=false immediately after wake; no fallback fires. Affects arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita. Not an agent-logic issue.

Investigate watcher process bootstrap failure in core SDK — add stderr capture on armWatcher() and surface exit code; add a health-check that re-arms if the process dies within 60s of posting

Hardcoded AFTERHOURS_TS is stale and will misbehave on re-arm

AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 (20:30 UTC 2026-06-08) is ~69 min in the past. On any re-arm, Math.max(60_000, AFTERHOURS_TS*1000 - Date.now()) = 60_000ms, firing a spurious 1-min fallback.

Replace with dynamic: const fallbackMs = 30 * 60 * 1000; (or session-end calc at runtime, not compile time)

No re-post logic after intent expires

The wake script fires on ownIntentResolved()=true but has no action branch — it calls fireWake() which wakes the agent, but the agent's Claude session must then decide to re-post. This is correct for now but the mission says 'one swap per wake' — a resolved-expired intent should trigger an immediate

In the agent's CLAUDE.md or wake handler, add: 'if woken because intent resolved and deals=0, re-post a fresh 0.50 USDC bait bid at current oracle×0.99'

Swing-Nikita

First wake setup — need approval to trade when signals fire

Summary: Dead confirmed for 5th+ consecutive cycle. last_wake_min_ago advanced 435→496 (+61min since last summary), matching the ~60min-per-cycle drift observed across all prior runs — zero new activity. Watcher remains fully dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). The 60-min warmup fallback that should have fired at ~14:23 06-08 is now ~7h overdue.

Fully dead for 5+ cycles with zero self-recovery. last_wake_min_ago=496 (+61 vs last summary), watcher dead (armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null), $0 of $0.56 lifetime spent in the last 5h. The scheduled 60-min warmup fallback is ~7h overdue and will never fire on its own. Agent never progressed past bootstrap — no price samples collected, no dislocations identified, no intents posted.

watcher process died after sole wake (06-08T13:23, USDC approval tx 0x0d061636…); no deals, no open intents, no fallback rescheduled. Same failure pattern as arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo — fleet-wide re-arm failure, not agent-specific logic.

The one completed action (token approval + 60-min warmup watcher deployment) was correct for a dislocation strategy that genuinely needs price history before it can trade. The warmup cadence and logic are sound. However, reasoning never reached the actual trading loop — the platform killed the watcher before the first sample was collected. This is a core failure, not a mission logic error.

60-min time-based fallback (armWatcher fallbackMs=3600000, scheduled ~14:23 06-08, ~7h overdue, never fired)

MISSING: no re-arm after process death — once pid exits, nothing restarts the watcher

Primary delivered-swap counterparty (15 settled deals, health=ok); would fill swing-nikita's dislocation slices at oracle mid

Also posts delivered swaps, but watcher dead (same fleet failure) — no active flow

unmeasurable — agent never reached intent-posting phase; warmup script explicitly has no book visibility by design, and no price samples were ever collected to identify dislocations

60-min cadence is appropriate for warmup sample collection on a trailing-average strategy

No book polling in warmup phase is correct — agent isn't ready to act yet

runWatchLoop with a deadline is the right structure for a pure time-based trigger

No resilience against process death — armWatcher sets the deadline but if pid exits, nothing re-arms

No transition logic: after warmup collects enough samples, what fires the first real trading wake?

Add a persistent fallback outside the node process (e.g. a cron or external scheduler entry) that re-arms the watcher if pid=dead and nextFallbackMin=null, so process death doesn't strand the agent permanently. This is the fleet-wide fix ne

Watcher process dies after armWatcher — no re-arm on process exit

swing-nikita is one of 6 agents (also arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo) where the node process exits after deploying a time-based watcher, and the fallback never fires. The 60-min fallback scheduled at ~14:23 06-08 is ~7h overdue.

Investigate why the node process exits before the fallback timer fires in wake-watch.js/runWatchLoop; add a process-death recovery path (external cron or supervisor) that re-arms any agent whose watcher.armed=false AND nextFallbackMin=null AND last_wake > threshold.

Manual restart required — no self-recovery path

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. The agent has no mechanism to re-enter the wake loop on its own. $0.56 lifetime spend, all in the single bootstrap wake.

Manually trigger a new wake for swing-nikita to restart the warmup sample collection loop; confirm the watcher arms and pid stays alive past the first 60-min window.

Vulture-Andrew

Summary: Watcher died cleanly after the single bootstrap wake (w1 19:12) completed all 6 fills. The 6 deals were off-mission portfolio-construction rebalance-buys (ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT, 8 USDC each) filled by LP-Maker-Matheus — not edge captures. $92.39 PnL is cumulative book value, not extracted alpha. With 52 USDC remaining, 0 open intents, and armed=false

The 6-deal bootstrap is complete and the watcher exited — likely a one-shot script that did not reschedule itself. Vulture-Andrew has never executed its actual mission (mispriced swap takes, near-decided binary grabs). 52 USDC sits idle with no monitor watching the book.

All 6 settled deals are 'Swap settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus' at 8 USDC each — identical to Option-Writer-Matheus's bootstrap pattern. Wake log confirms: 'posted rebalance-buy intents 50-55 for ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT'. No mispriced-swap take, no binary grab, no baited intent posted. Mission requi

The one logged wake reads coherent but is solving the wrong problem — 'flat wallet, need basket to fund deals' is a valid bootstrap rationale, but the script appears to have been a one-shot that exited after fills rather than transitioning into the continuous edge-monitor the mission requires. Sound execution of the wrong script.

One-shot bootstrap: posted rebalance-buys at w1 then exited

MISSING: continuous book-watch for mispriced swaps

MISSING: near-decided binary scanner (BinaryBet odds near 0/1)

MISSING: fallback heartbeat — no reschedule after bootstrap completed

All 6 bootstrap fills came from LP-Maker-Matheus; would also be the natural taker-side for any baited swap intent Vulture posts

Runs BinaryBet intents Vulture could take if near-decided; requires vulture watcher to actually scan the book

Live BinaryBet vs Bear-Yosher; Vulture could take mispriced leg if odds drift near-certain

Posts options/binaries priced against Polymarket — potential mispriced legs for Vulture to grab

0 deals, health ok, watcher status unkno

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to book since bootstrap exit (~147 min ago). Bear-Yosher and Mimic-Ljuba have a live BinaryBet open during this window; whether odds drifted near-decided is unknown without a book scan. LP-Maker-Matheus has been continuously active (15 deals) — any fat-finger quotes in that flow were invisible to this agent.

Bootstrap logic was coherent: recognized flat wallet, correctly prioritized getting basket tokens before edge-hunting

Used oracle mid for pricing fills — no overpay

wake_script_source is null — cannot inspect current script; behavior inferred from wake log only

One-shot bootstrap with no re-arm: watcher did not reschedule itself after fills completed

No book-scan trigger: mission requires watching for mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, neither of which appears in the one logged wake

No fallback heartbeat: armed=false/nextFallbackMin=null means agent is fully dark with 52 USDC idle

Deploy a persistent watcher that (a) on each wake scans open intents for swap/binary mispricings vs oracle, (b) falls back on a ~30-60 min heartbeat, and (c) does not exit after fills — the bootstrap is done, transition to continuous edge-h

Watcher exited after bootstrap; no re-arm

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Last wake 147 min ago. Bootstrap complete (6/6 fills). The actual vulture mission has never started. 52 USDC sits idle.

Re-deploy watcher with a continuous book-scan script and a 30-60 min fallback. Bootstrap phase is over — the new script should skip the rebalance logic and go straight to edge-hunting.

Single wake was off-mission (rebalance-buy, not edge capture)

w1 posted 6 × 8 USDC rebalance-buys — identical pattern to Option-Writer-Matheus's bootstrap. $92.39 PnL is portfolio construction value, not extracted alpha. Mission is 'pick off mispriced intents and post baited traps'; none of that occurred.

New wake script must implement the vulture loop: scan book for swap/binary legs where oracle delta > threshold, take or post bait, then sleep to next heartbeat.

No auto-re-arm after clean watcher exit

6 of 12 agents share this failure mode (arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita also dead). A one-shot script that doesn't call re-arm leaves the agent permanently dark with no safety net.

SDK should either (a) require an explicit exit-with-no-reschedule call to prevent accidental dormancy, or (b) auto-post a long fallback (e.g., 120 min) when a watcher process exits without scheduling a successor.

The 6-deal bootstrap is complete and the watcher exited — likely a one-shot script that did not reschedule itself. Vulture-Andrew has never executed its actual mission (mispriced swap takes, near-decided binary grabs). 52 USDC sits idle with no monitor watching the book.

wallet-address frequency (10/12 agents addressed)

SWAP HUB DRAINING, OPTION MARKET VOID

Option-Writer-Matheus ⇄ LP-Maker-Matheus (6 deals) · Vulture-Andrew → LP-Maker-Matheus (6 deals) · Bear-Yosher → LP-Maker-Matheus (1) · Arb-Hunter-Tom → LP-Maker-Matheus (1) · Momentum-Nikita → LP-Mak

ACTIVE but one-sided — all 15 swap fills route through LP-Maker-Matheus; no comp

Bear-Yosher ⇄ Mimic-Ljuba (1 live deal) · Polymarket-Ljuba posted #32 + #89 as maker, 0 takers

THIN — 1 live match, 2 unmatched maker intents expiring Jun9 16:00 UTC (~18h); A

Option-Writer-Matheus posted ETH put #71 (strike $1667.52, $0.60 premium) → 0 takers

VOID — Option-Taker-Matheus never bootstrapped (0 wakes, $0.15 lifetime); option

Core armWatcher() silently crashes after first wake exit with no re-arm path

6/12 agents (arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita) perm

swing-nikita fallback 7h overdue; rebalancer-lior intent #13 expired unfilled after 259 min; stacker-massimo intent 78 expired unfilled; momentum-nikita last_wake_min_ago=232 (two watcher cycles, zero

Option-Taker-Matheus never bootstrapped — $0.15 bootstrap LLM call produced no deployable watcher script

Option-Writer-Matheus's option intents are structurally untakeable; ETH put #71 (1% OTM, $0.60 premium, $10 collateral)

option-taker-matheus: wakes=0, armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null; option-writer-matheus deals=6 all swaps ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, 0 option fills

LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole swap liquidity provider and prices at oracle mid

Informed takers (Option-Writer-Matheus bootstrap swaps, Vulture-Andrew rebalance-buys) systematically cross when they se

All 15 settled swaps ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; Vulture-Andrew 6 fills were 8 USDC rebalance-buys; Option-Writer-Matheus 6 fills were stock→USDC conversions; LP has 17 open two-sided quotes, but no maker com

Vulture-Andrew bootstrap wake completed portfolio construction but deployed no edge-hunting watcher

52 USDC idle, agent's actual mission (capture mispriced swaps / binary grabs) never started; 6 bootstrap deals were off-

vulture-andrew: wakes=1, all 6 deals are 'Swap settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus' at 8 USDC each; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null post-bootstrap; no BinaryBet take, no baited intent posted

Polymarket-Ljuba's fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=1333, ~22h) fires after intents #32/#89 expire (Jun9 16:00 UTC, ~18h)

If the T-5min pre-expiry check in the wake script doesn't fire correctly, both intents expire unresolved with no settle/

polymarket-ljuba: nextFallbackMin=1333 > expiry in ~1092m; T-5min check is the only pre-expiry safety net in current.ts; arb-hunter-tom (potential taker for #32) is dead

Systemic watcher re-arm failure: 6/12 agents permanently stranded

6 agents share identical death signature: watcher process exits after first wake, SDK does not schedule re-arm or fallback. Swing-nikita: fallback ~7h overdue. Rebalancer-lior: intent expired 259 min past the 4h window written in current.ts. Momentum-nikita: last_wake_min_ago=232, two full cycles elapsed with zero new wakes. This is a platform failure, not agent logic.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null across arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita — all post first-wake exit

armWatcher() must schedule a guaranteed fallback before the watcher process exits — even if the script omits one. A core-level 'max silence' watchdog (e.g. 2h) that re-invokes the agent if no wake fires should be the SDK default.

Option market structurally void: Option-Taker-Matheus bootstrap produced no watcher

Option-Writer-Matheus is live (armed=true, 6 deals, posting sAAPL/sMSFT/option intents). Its sister taker agent spent $0.15 on a single bootstrap LLM call that never emitted a deployable wake script — 0 wakes, 0 deals, armed=false across 10+ cycles. Every option intent writer posts will expire untaken unless this is fixed.

option-taker-matheus: wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, lifetime=$0.15; option-writer-matheus intent #71 (ETH put, 0 takers) canceled at W3

Manually re-bootstrap option-taker-matheus — inspect the $0.15 bootstrap call output to determine why no script was emitted, then redeploy with a valid wake script targeting option-writer-matheus's live intents.

LP-Maker-Matheus sole swap hub, PnL bleeding at $16.83/5h

All 15 settled swaps route through LP-Maker-Matheus exclusively. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers who cross when they see edge — PnL is -$59.67 with $16.83 burned in 5h (12.2% of pool). With no competing maker and 6 potential counterparties dead, LP absorbs all adverse selection. At this burn rate, the pool exhausts in ~2 days.

lp-maker-matheus: 15/15 settled swaps, PnL -$59.67, token burn $16.83/5h, reliableCounterparties=2; 17 open two-sided quotes across sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA/ETH/BTC/SSV

Deploy a second maker (rebalancer-lior or stacker-massimo) once re-arm is fixed to split adverse selection. Near-term: widen LP-Maker-Matheus spreads beyond oracle mid to price in the adverse selection it's absorbing.

Polymarket-Ljuba intents expire before fallback fires — 20 USDC at risk

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k) and #89 (ETH<$1700) expire Jun9 16:00 UTC (~18h away). nextFallbackMin=1333 (~22h) — fallback fires 4h AFTER expiry. The T-5min pre-expiry check in the wake script is the only protection. If that check misfires or the pid dies before then, both intents expire unresolved.

polymarket-ljuba: nextFallbackMin=1333, expiry in ~1092m; pidAlive=true currently; arb-hunter-tom (potential taker for #32 BTC<$64k) is dead (armed=false)

Verify the T-5min pre-expiry check in polymarket-ljuba's current.ts fires correctly. Optionally shorten nextFallbackMin to 1080 (18h) so the fallback lands before expiry as a safety backstop.

Vulture-Andrew mission never started: 52 USDC idle post-bootstrap

6 bootstrap fills were rebalance-buys (ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT at 8 USDC each ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus) — portfolio construction, not edge capture. Agent is now fully dormant (armed=false, 0 open intents) with its actual mission (capture mispriced swaps, binary grabs) never executed.

vulture-andrew: 6 deals all 'Swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus' at 8 USDC; $92.39 PnL is book value not alpha; armed=false, pidAlive=false, 52 USDC undeployed

Re-deploy vulture-andrew with a wake script targeting its actual mission: scan open book for mispriced intents / underpriced BinaryBets and post baited maker intents. Bootstrap phase is done — the edge-hunter phase must be manually triggered.

Binary market nascent but structurally viable

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba have the fleet's first BinaryBet match (live). Both are armed (bear-yosher: armed=true/nextFallbackMin=67 resting; mimic-ljuba: armed=true/nextFallbackMin=1308). Polymarket-Ljuba has 2 open maker intents. The market structure exists — it just needs more takers.

1 BinaryBet live (Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba); polymarket-ljuba intents #32 + #89 open, 0 filled; arb-hunter-tom (dead) was the natural taker for #32

Revive arb-hunter-tom to restore the natural taker for polymarket-ljuba's BinaryBet intents. The binary market clears as soon as a taker is active.

Fix armWatcher() to guarantee a re-arm or fallback when the watcher process exits — add a core-level max-silence watchdog (2h default) that fires if no wake is recorded. This unblocks 6/12 dead agents in a single SDK fix.

Manually re-bootstrap option-taker-matheus: inspect the failed $0.15 bootstrap output, redeploy with a valid wake script. This creates the only taker for option-writer-matheus's intents and opens the options market.

Re-deploy vulture-andrew's edge-hunting watcher: portfolio built, 52 USDC ready, mission not started. A single wake deploying a book-scanner watcher converts a dormant agent into an active arb taker.

Verify polymarket-ljuba T-5min pre-expiry check fires before Jun9 16:00 UTC; shorten fallback from 1333m to ≤1080m as backstop — 20 USDC exposure if intents expire unresolved.

Improved vs last run: Option-Writer-Matheus is clearly active (deals=6, 2 open intents, armed=true, $1.01/5h burn) directly contradicting its prior 'eighth flatline' summary — prior summary is stale or mislabeled; Mimic-Ljuba reversed from never-initialized to armed=true/nextFallbackMin=1319 with a

Option-Writer-Matheus prior summary ('eighth consecutive flatline, armed=false, $0.15 lifetime, wakes=0') directly contradicts live state (deals=6, armed=true, nextFallbackMin=17, pidAlive=true, $1.01

Mimic-Ljuba status reversal: prior said never initialized (armed=false, pidAlive=false), now armed=true/nextFallbackMin=1319/pidAlive=true with live BinaryBet vs Bear-Yosher

Vulture-Andrew watcher DIED since last run (armed=true/pidAlive=true → both false) with 0 open intents — 6-deal bootstrap complete, no edge-hunting follow-up deployed

6 of 12 agents with dead watchers and no fallback scheduled: arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita — systemic re-arm failure, not isolat

Funnel: 135 posted → 16 settled (11.9%), all 16 settled deals are swap-only; binary market has 0 settled deals (only Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet is 'live', not yet settled)

Polymarket-Ljuba 2 BinaryBet intents expire Jun9 16:00 UTC in ~1103m (~18h) but nextFallbackMin=1344 (~22h) — fallback fires AFTER expiry; pre-expiry T-5min check is the only safety net

Watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, last_wake=107min). BTC oracle ~$63,457 vs $64k strike; Polymarket-Ljuba's 0.617 implied is in the book. Has the CEX/oracle spread crossed arb-hunter's edge threshold for the t

ALIVE: armed=true, nextFallbackMin=78, last_wake=174min. Deals jumped 1→2 with a live BinaryBet vs Mimic-Ljuba. What is the thesis on that live BinaryBet deal, and is the watcher now configured to manage perp short positions as the mission

Hub burning $35.87/5h with 12 freshly-repriced open intents; 15 of 16 total settled deals involve this agent. Are all 12 current quotes (e.g. sMSFT 12.45/0.03, ETH 17.15/0.01, BTC 12.78/0.0002) within oracle mid-spread, and is the counterpa

MAJOR STATUS REVERSAL: prior said never initialized (armed=false, pidAlive=false), now armed=true/nextFallbackMin=1319/pidAlive=true with a live BinaryBet vs Bear-Yosher. What triggered initialization, what is the deal thesis on the Bear-Yo

Dead for another cycle (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback, last_wake=229min, health=stuck). Prior: intent #28 expired unfilled. Is there any new evidence of a re-initialization attempt, or has no fallback fired in the ~229min since l

Nine-plus consecutive dead cycles (armed=false, pidAlive=false, health=unknown). Option-Writer-Matheus has 2 live swap intents in the book (sAAPL→USDC at ~14min, sMSFT→USDC at ~15min). Does this agent's mission permit taking swaps, or is it

CRITICAL DISCREPANCY: prior summary says 'eighth consecutive flatline, armed=false, $0.15 lifetime, wakes=0, zero intents ever posted' but current state shows deals=6, openIntents=2, armed=true, nextFallbackMin=17, pidAlive=true, $1.01/5h b

Armed with nextFallbackMin=1344 (~22h from now). Two BinaryBet intents expire Jun9 16:00 UTC in ~1103m (~18h) — the fallback fires AFTER expiry. Does the current wake script (current.ts) contain a working pre-expiry T-5min check that will f

Dead watcher (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback, last_wake=256min). Prior: posted BTC DCA intent but failed to re-arm. Now openIntents=0 — did the BTC intent settle (deals still=0 would mean no) or expire unfilled, and what specifica

Watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, last_wake=104min). Prior: posted intent 78 (0.50 USDC→sNVDA at oracle×0.99) but failed to arm. Intent 78 is no longer in the open book and deals=0 unchanged. Did intent 78 expire unfilled, and what

Dead for 4+ cycles, last_wake=493min, no fallback, health=stuck, $0 burn in 5h. Last_wake advancing ~60min per observer cycle confirms zero new activity. Is there any self-recovery mechanism remaining, or does this agent require a full manu

Watcher was ALIVE last run (armed=true, pidAlive=true, 35min fallback) but is now DEAD (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback, last_wake=144min). The 6-deal bootstrap rebalance is complete. Did the watcher exit cleanly after completing i

Investigate systemic watcher re-arm failure: arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, and vulture-andrew all posted or completed a cycle then failed to re-arm —

option-writer-matheus: Prior summary ('eighth flatline') vs live state (deals=6, active watcher) must be reconciled in Step 2 by reading current.ts and mission logs — determine whether a re-initializa

polymarket-ljuba: Confirm pre-expiry T-5min check exists and will fire before Jun9 16:00 UTC (~1103m away) — nextFallbackMin=1344 fires after expiry and cannot serve as the safety net

Binary market clearing rate is 0 settled deals despite 4 open BinaryBet intents (2 Polymarket-Ljuba, 1 Perpetual, 1 Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba live) — assess whether price/counterparty availability or de

swing-nikita, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus: All three are unreachable via any self-recovery path (no fallback, no armed watcher) — require manual wake script re-initialization if these agents