Arb-Hunter-Tom

No edge on either surface: 0 binary bets, 0 fundable swap edges ≥10bps. SSV oracle caught up to CEX fully (0bps). ETH/BT

new mSSV intent >1416 with ≥10bps edge vs live CEX (buy or sell) OR binary bet OR 30-min fallback

Summary: Counter confirmed frozen at 11 through w204 — now 46+ consecutive waits (w197–w204 all 'No fill'). Key update since last summary: the 23bps oracle-leads-CEX block that held at w201 dissolved by w203 ('oracle caught up'), removing that structural edge-direction barrier. Despite this, no fill materialized — still no binary bets on book and all new swap intents

Deal counter frozen at 11 for 46+ consecutive waits (w197–w204); the oracle-leads-CEX block from w201 dissolved by w203, but no fill followed — market is simply not producing binary bets or exploitable swap edges on either surface. Agent reasoning and watcher are working correctly; this is a market/fleet supply problem, not an agent fault.

All 9 visible settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (8) + Rebalancer-Lior (1); LP-Maker active at 103 deals but not posting SSV swaps with ≥10bps above-CEX edge arb-hunter can take; bear-yosher (primary binary bet poster) crashed 1112m — zero binary bets on book at w197–w204; oracle gap dissolved w20

Sound and on-mission. Each wake correctly checks both SSV surfaces (buy + sell edge) against live Binance feed, applies the 10bps floor, and documents exactly why no action was taken (needsApproval, wrong asset, sub-floor, no bets). The oracle-catch-up observation at w203 is accurate self-diagnosis. No churn, no mis-classified stales, no drift. The only concern is that the agent is solving a solva

New intent ID above HIGH_WATER=1383 with SSV buy-edge (taker pays USDC, receives mSSV ≥10bps below CEX) or sell-edge (taker gives mSSV, receives USDC ≥10bps abo

New intent matching BINARY_BET_HASHES template (fires immediately on appearance)

8 of 9 visible settled deals; active at 103 total; but current posted intents don't clear the 10bps edge floor for arb-hunter

1 settled deal; posts SSV swaps when rebalancing; armed and counting down to US market open ~13:30 UTC — likely to post new intents then

Primary binary bet poster — arb-hunter's binary surface depends on bear-yosher being alive; deal #75 still in limbo

Posts sharp/baited intents that could create exploitable gaps; has 38 deals of history

None — watcher is book-aware (HIGH_WATER=1383 baseline, seenIds dedup), scans all new intents above watermark each poll, and the main loop independently confirmed bestTake=null at w203 and w204. No above-floor intent appeared on either surface.

HIGH_WATER + seenIds baseline prevents stale-intent fires on startup — correct for a pure-taker that must not re-evaluate already-processed intents

Monitors both SSV buy-edge AND sell-edge directions — catches whichever side LP-Maker or others happen to post

Binary bet hashes hard-coded as immediate wake trigger — zero latency on the agent's primary high-value surface

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for an arb hunter (not sub-minute polling, not hours-patient)

SSV CEX feed cached with 30s TTL — avoids Binance rate-limiting on tight poll loops

Binary bet wake fires on appearance alone, not near-expiry — agent's main loop will filter, but causes unnecessary wakes on far-dated bets (low cost, acceptable

ORACLE_SYMBOL map only covers BTC/ETH — if binary bets on other assets appear, the oracle mismatch check is blind to them

Wake script source truncated at buy-edge check — cannot verify the full USDC→mSSV edge logic, but visible structure is consistent with mission

Add a near-expiry pre-filter to binary bet wake (e.g., only fire if intent expiry is within NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC=1800) — reduces wasted wakes on far-dated bets while keeping the latency-arb trigger tight for near-decided ones.

Binary bet supply chain offline

bear-yosher (primary binary bet poster) crashed 1112m, vulture-andrew crashed 913m — arb-hunter's highest-value surface (binary bets) has had zero new supply for the entire prior-run and current-run window; w197–w204 all log '0 binary bets on book'

Operator restart of bear-yosher unblocks arb-hunter's primary surface immediately; no agent-side change needed

LP-Maker swap intents not clearing arb-hunter's 10bps floor

LP-Maker is active (103 deals, 10 open intents) but its posted SSV intents are priced inside the 10bps edge floor — arb-hunter's only active liquid counterparty isn't generating exploitable gaps on the swap surface; all new mSSV intents (#1364/#1365, etc.) log as taker-negative

No agent fix warranted — LP-Maker is correctly pricing near mid; the fix is binary bet supply (above) or a new taker-edge-aware maker posting above-CEX SSV intents

Portfolio USDC balance ($84.01) idle, no deployed capital

Agent holds $84.01 USDC + 1.7714 SSV (~$100.47 portfolio) with 0 open intents and 0 fills in 46+ wakes; realized PnL $0.48 on $7.64 lifetime token spend — marginal alpha at current opportunity rate

No immediate change — agent is correctly waiting for edge; consider whether mission scope could expand to other asset pairs if SSV arb remains structurally thin

Bear-Yosher

Exactly-one-resting invariant violated (836 expired). Posted 869 to maintain bear anchor. No BinaryBets available to tak

intent 869 fill/expiry OR new BinaryBet OR ETH/BTC +1.5% OR deal 75 near-expiry OR 4h

Summary: 994 min dark (+54 min vs prior 940 min). Hard crash unchanged: armed=false, pidAlive=false, zero token spend since w41 (Jun 10 11:17 UTC). Settled_deals still 17 — no new settlements. All 3 live deals (1 custom + 2 BinaryBet, all ↔ Mimic-Ljuba) remain 'live'; deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 (~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) is now well past, but crash blocks the agent

No change from last run. 3 live Bear↔Mimic-Ljuba deals (including deal 75, expired >2h ago) remain unsettled because the crashed agent cannot call the settlement function. At w39 BTC was 3.49% below strike — deal 75 was in-the-money; winning proceeds are unclaimed and ~$48–52 USDC remains locked.

armed=false, pidAlive=false since before deal-75 expiry; settled_deals frozen at 17 across consecutive runs; deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed with no settlement call; all 3 live deals ↔ Mimic-Ljuba (health:ok) who as losing counterparty has no incentive to initiate settlement

Last wake (w41) reasoning was sound — it posted intent 869 to maintain the exactly-one-resting invariant, logged deal 75 expiry approach, and armed a well-structured watcher. The problem is the watcher process died shortly after w41 (watcher.pidAlive=false now), so all of that correct reasoning is frozen mid-execution. The agent is not solving the wrong problem; it is simply not running.

Intent 869 fill/expiry (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet on book (newMatches on BINARY_BET_HASH)

Deal 75 near-expiry at epoch 1781139624 - 300s

sole counterparty on all 3 live deals; health:ok and active (16 deals), but as the losing side on in-the-money bets has no incentive to call

could absorb basket swap intents once bear-yosher restarts and recycles locked capital; not relevant to deal settlement

would take near-decided BinaryBets bear-yosher could post once restarted; not useful while crashed

Unmeasurable while crashed — watcher is blind to book. Settlement of deal 75 (in-the-money at w39: BTC 3.49% below strike) is the immediate missed action; each additional minute is unrealized profit sitting unclaimed.

Adverse price triggers (+1.5% ETH/BTC) correctly guard the bear thesis — fires before conviction is invalidated

Deal-75 near-expiry anchor (fire 5 min early) was exactly right for mission: claim settlement promptly

New BinaryBet detection via templateHash is precise — won't fire on irrelevant intents

4h fallback prevents permanent silence if all other triggers miss

Zero-LLM, runWatchLoop pattern is correct

Process is dead — script is irrelevant until agent is restarted

No self-healing: if the process dies, nothing re-arms it; the 4h fallback only helps if the process is alive

After restart, add a platform-level process supervisor (or cron ping) that detects pidAlive=false and auto-relaunches the watcher — the script design is sound but a dead process cannot self-recover.

No process resurrection for crashed watchers

bear-yosher has been dark 994 min. The watcher script is well-designed but a dead process cannot re-arm itself. bear-yosher, stacker-massimo, and vulture-andrew all share this failure mode — three agents dark simultaneously indicates a platform gap, not three independent agent bugs.

Add a fleet-level supervisor (e.g. a cron job or watchdog) that polls pidAlive and auto-relaunches watcher processes that have died.

Deal 75 settlement unclaimed — capital locked

betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed; BTC was 3.49% below strike at w39, making deal 75 in-the-money for bear-yosher. Mimic-Ljuba (losing side) will not self-settle. Capital (~$48–52 USDC) locked in 3 live deals cannot recycle into new positions until settled.

Manual restart of bear-yosher; first action should be to call settlement on deal 75 and the 2 other expired BinaryBets before posting new intents.

Index-Maker

Summary: 24th consecutive null cycle — state bit-for-bit identical to all prior runs. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No provisioning event detected this cycle. Not a crash; never initialized. IndexBasket market segment remains fully offline alongside index-taker.

Zero change since last run: 0 tokens spent lifetime, 0 wakes, no address, no wake script. This is the 24th consecutive null cycle. Not a crash — provisioning never occurred. The entire IndexBasket market (both maker and taker sides) remains dark.

tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0, address=null, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null — identical across all 24 observed cycles

N/A — no reasoning to evaluate; agent has never executed a single wake.

MISSING: no watcher configured — agent never provisioned

designed as the short-side counterparty for index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents

also undeployed — 0 wakes, address=null,

unmeasurable: agent never initialized; no intents ever posted, no book participation possible

wake_script_source=null — no script exists

watcher not armed, no fallback scheduled

no on-chain address to post or monitor intents from

Provision the agent (assign address, deploy wake script) before any watcher quality judgment is possible — script evaluation is moot at this stage.

Agent never provisioned — 24 cycles, zero state

index-maker has address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, and no wake script across all observed cycles. This is not a crash or recovery failure — the agent was never initialized. index-taker is in the identical state, meaning the entire IndexBasket market segment is offline.

Provision index-maker with a funded address and deploy a wake script targeting the BTC+AAPL+NVDA basket. Provision index-taker in the same pass so both sides of the market are live simultaneously — launching only the maker produces no counterparty and no deals.

Zero change since last run: 0 tokens spent lifetime, 0 wakes, no address, no wake script. This is the 24th consecutive null cycle. Not a crash — provisioning never occurred. The entire IndexBasket market (both maker and taker sides) remains dark.

Index-Taker

Summary: 24th consecutive null cycle — zero delta, no change. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Focus question answered: index-taker remains null/undeployed and the counterparty (index-maker) remains null/undeployed; no IndexBasket intents exist in the 1429-intent funnel — confirmed dead pair again. Nothing to build on

Index-taker has never woken, spent $0, and has no watcher armed. Its only counterparty (index-maker) is also undeployed with 0 IndexBasket intents in the full 1429-intent funnel. The market does not exist — both sides of the pair are offline.

wake_script_source=null; watcher armed=false, pidAlive=false; 0 wakes lifetime; 0 IndexBasket intents in 1429-intent funnel; index-maker also null/undeployed (health=unknown, 0 deals)

No reasoning to evaluate — agent has never run. The fail-closed audit-first design is sound in principle, but unreachable without deployment.

MISSING: no watcher deployed — nothing fires

sole intended counterparty — posts the LONG IndexBasket intents index-taker would short

null/undeployed — armed=false, pidAlive=

none — no IndexBasket intents exist anywhere in the 1429-intent funnel

wake_script_source=null — no watcher exists at all

no fallback scheduled (nextFallbackMin=null)

Deploy the agent and its watcher; the highest-leverage move is deploying index-maker first so intents exist to take — index-taker is inert without it.

Agent not deployed

wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false, 0 lifetime wakes. This is the 24th consecutive null cycle.

Deploy index-taker; requires index-maker to be deployed first to post IndexBasket intents as counterparty.

Dead pair — both sides undeployed

index-maker (sole counterparty) is also null/undeployed with 0 IndexBasket intents in the 1429-intent funnel. Even a deployed index-taker has nothing to take.

Prioritize deploying index-maker first; then index-taker has a live book to audit and cross.

Index-taker has never woken, spent $0, and has no watcher armed. Its only counterparty (index-maker) is also undeployed with 0 IndexBasket intents in the full 1429-intent funnel. The market does not exist — both sides of the pair are offline.

LP-Maker-Matheus

All quotes live and fair; no external intent cleared τ=3bps; oracle moves <0.5% (no volTerm triggered).

Cluster N pre-expiry ts 1781165508 (~09:03 UTC) or oracle guard or fillable intent | 40min fallback

12/12 quotes posted; 6 active counterparties (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, 0xBd6a…9863, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita); deal velocity limited by taker arrivals not LP quality. w85–w90 show 0 fills across multiple wakes despite tight quotes — thin taker side, not mispricing.

Cluster expiry guard: EXPIRY_FIRE_TS_SEC=1781133228 (~23:18 UTC) fires 5min before #1281–#1286 cluster expires

New fillable swap: newMatches() detects net-new intents where posterWants ∈ HOLD set

MISSING: inversion/spread-check trigger — concurrent-session inversions detected only at next poll (60s lag), causing arb bleed per event

Active arb taker; resurrection confirmed armed=true/pidAlive=true; appears 8× in recent deal list including w84 arb fill

Most frequent recent counterparty (~8 fills in tail); health=stuck but still settling LP intents

5 recent fills but current 4.96 USDC intent is sub-LP-minimum lot — won't clear until lior posts ≥12 USDC

2 recent fills; w23 20 USDC intent on book (18 min left) is above minimum

External wallet; 7 fills in recent tail — reliable taker source outside named fleet

Expiry cluster guard pins exact ts 1781133228 (5min before #1281–#1286 cluster) — no stale quotes

newMatches() on HOLD set: only fires on intents LP can profitably fill, not its own stale posts

60s poll interval — not sub-minute; patient cadence appropriate for 22-min avg gap

No oracle price guards (per playbook rule — avoids loop storms)

50min fallback ensures watcher doesn't go dark between clusters

No spread/inversion check: concurrent-session inversions (flagged w84, w87, w88) are discovered only at next 60s poll tick, allowing ~1min of arb exposure per e

Concurrent-session inversion recurs on every oracle move

w84, w87, w88 all report concurrent session posting inverted bids when oracle moves positive. Each event costs ~$0.076 arb loss plus a cleanup wake. Root: two watcher sessions posting simultaneously create crossed spreads. Watcher detects it reactively at next poll (up to 60s exposure).

Add inversion check in runWatchLoop body: compare own bid vs own ask prices per asset from readOpenIntents; fireWake immediately on cross. Also investigate why two concurrent watcher sessions arise — may need PID lock enforcement in armWatcher.

Token cost critical: $76.51/5h = 53.4% of pool

96 deals settling at $0.82/wake average; 87 wakes × $0.82 ≈ $71 but 5h cost is $76.51 with 80/87 repeat wakes. At this burn rate LP's token pool (~$143 implied at 53.4%) exhausts in ~5h. Repeat-wake rate 92% (80/87) suggests most wakes are maintenance not fills.

Core/SDK: add per-agent token budget cap and alert threshold. Agent-side: w85 correctly no-ops when nothing actionable — ensure repeat-wake suppression logic is consistently applied to avoid unnecessary LLM calls on zero-action wakes.

Mimic-Ljuba

No BinaryBet on board to accept; no recent binary flow to mirror. Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on entire visible board (all int

Summary: Bear-Yosher #75 exposure question now closed: openExposureUsd=0 confirmed across w71–w74, capital stable at $63.62 USDC. Stale 'live' Bear-Yosher entry count fell from 2 last run to 1 this run — display artifact resolving on its own, zero real P&L impact. Board drought extended to 15 consecutive empty wakes (w59→w74); agent correctly holding, watcher armed/a

No exposure on any Yosher deals — openExposureUsd=0 at every wake, $63.62 USDC fully intact. The one remaining 'custom live ↔ Bear-Yosher' settled_deals_detail entry is a display artifact (count 3→2→1 across three runs); no action needed. Binary market drought now 15 wakes long; agent is correctly idle, not stuck.

Board empty of BinaryBets for 15 consecutive wakes (w59–w74); no counterparty posting binary flow for mimic to mirror or take. Bear-Yosher (primary binary poster) health=stuck/crashed since deal #75. Vulture-Andrew re-armed but posts swaps, not BinaryBets.

Sound and solving the right problem. Agent correctly distinguishes 'no actionable flow' from 'malfunction' — each hold log cites the ≥3pp edge floor explicitly (w72, w73, w74). Not churning: 61 repeat wakes reflects the structural drought, not reasoning decay. One risk: 15 wakes of fallback-only firing means the BinaryBet detection path is untested in production since w59 — the logic is correct bu

New BinaryBet intent appears (templateHash 0x09cd…060c) via newMatches()

60-min fallback (correct cadence for a copy-trader in thin flow)

Primary binary poster; mimic mirrors its BinaryBets and accepts its open bets

hard-crashed (1232 min, armed=false/pidA

Posts near-sure-win binaries (baited intents) that mimic could take if edge ≥3pp

re-armed this cycle (5 open intents), bu

Makes small-shade binaries; mimic could accept if edge floor met

2 settled deals, health unknown — low th

None verifiable. Watcher watches the live book for new BinaryBets; no BinaryBets have appeared for 15 wakes by the agent's own observation. Cannot rule out non-BinaryBet binary-shaped intents posted under a different template hash — but that is unmeasurable without a template audit.

Fires specifically on NEW BinaryBets (newMatches + templateHash filter) — cannot trigger on stale book

60-min fallback is right for a copy-trader: patient cadence, not a poll loop

Zero-LLM watcher; baseline-then-diff pattern correctly avoids false triggers on existing intents

Label accurately describes the wake condition including trading-hours caveat

Detection path untested in production for 15 wakes — if newMatches() has a regression, the agent would never know; a smoke-log on each loop tick (e.g., 'scanned

No guard for Bear-Yosher recovery: if BYosher re-arms and floods 5+ bets simultaneously, the watcher fires on the first one only and subsequent bets require a n

Add a per-loop scan-count log line (e.g., 'polled 47 intents, 0 new BinaryBets') so 15 wakes of silence is distinguishable from 15 wakes of silent watcher failure.

Stale 'live' Bear-Yosher label in settled_deals_detail

One entry still shows 'custom live ↔ Bear-Yosher' despite deal #75 being expired and openExposureUsd=0. Count has been declining (3→2→1) suggesting eventual cleanup, but the label misleads health reads.

Core: reconcile settled_deals_detail status against on-chain betExpiry; mark expired deals as 'expired' or drop from 'live' view once betExpiry < now.

Silent watcher — no observability during 15-wake drought

The runWatchLoop executes every tick but emits no log unless a new BinaryBet fires. A watcher crash or newMatches() regression would look identical to a dry market.

Agent: add a one-line console.log per loop iteration with intent count and new-bet count so the transcript confirms the watcher is running, not just armed.

Momentum-Nikita

Summary: Built SSV position to 8 tokens through w19–w22 on a 10pp+ momentum signal (strongest in 22 wakes). w23–w24 posted intents #1327 then #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV) but neither filled — LP-Maker-Matheus not posting SSV at the agent's oracle price. Intent #1342 expires ~10:05 UTC Jun 11; watcher is armed (pidAlive=true, 200-min fallback remaining) and fires on fi

SSV momentum remained decisive through w24 (>5pp fast, >6.9pp slow) and the $2.12 price on intent #1342 vs $2.21 on #1318 reflects oracle drift, not signal breakdown. The agent is correctly resting — watcher armed with 200-min fallback and three live triggers. LP-Maker-Matheus is the only reliable SSV sell-side counterparty (4 of 5 fills); until it quotes SSV at ≤$2.14 the buy intent will sit.

Intent #1327 posted w23 expired unfilled; #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV at $2.12, 8h TTL) has been live since 02:05 UTC with no fill in 346 min. All 5 visible fills: LP-Maker-Matheus ×4, Rebalancer-Lior ×1 — no other SSV seller has appeared at fair price.

Sound, solving the right problem. The agent correctly distinguishes oracle-price tracking ($2.21→$2.12) from momentum direction (relative SSV outperformance still >5pp both lookbacks). Posting 8h intents at oracle and waiting is the right posture when no SSV seller appears at fair price — not churning, not overpaying.

new SSV seller at fair price (posterGives mSSV, price ≤ $2.14)

SSV vs ETH momentum gap shifts ≥2pp from arm-time baseline (±)

Deep inventory market maker, 104 deals, dominant SSV sell-side; supplied 4 of 5 momentum-nikita fills — but currently not quoting SSV at ≤$2

Filled 1 deal with this agent; rebalancer periodically sells assets to hit target mix — could sell SSV if overweight, but infrequent

Taker/baiter, not a SSV inventory holder; posts sharp intents but not SSV sell-side depth

None visible. Watcher scans open intents each tick for SSV sellers ≤$2.14 — none have appeared since w23. The book check is live; the metric is measurable and the answer is zero.

Fires on own intent resolution (fill OR expire) — correct, not just fill

Monitors live order book for new SSV sellers at oracle ±1% each tick — directly serves the 'add to position' branch

Momentum-shift trigger (≥2pp gap change) handles both 'signal strengthened — buy sooner' and 'signal gone — cash now' in one check

US open trigger is mission-appropriate: options/equities reopen at 13:30 UTC and could shift relative momentum leadership

9h fallback with ~200 min remaining — will force re-evaluation by 11:05 UTC at latest, before the US session fully opens

Momentum comparison uses ETH as the benchmark; BTC is also anchored but not explicitly checked as the 'best other' — if BTC surges past SSV the signal logic may

Extend the momentum-shift check to compare SSV gap vs MAX(ETH_gap, BTC_gap) rather than just ETH, so a BTC leadership flip fires the wake without waiting for the fallback.

Momentum denominator is ETH-only in wake-script gap calc

CURRENT_GAP_PP is computed as SSV_return − ETH_return. If BTC becomes the momentum leader (as it was before w19), the watcher won't fire until the fallback — the agent misses the rotation signal for up to 9h.

In the momentum-shift check, compute gap vs best(ETH_return, BTC_return) to ensure any leadership flip triggers a wake.

No SSV sell-side counterparty besides LP-Maker-Matheus

With 1 reliable SSV seller, the agent's buy intents are structurally dependent on LP-Maker quoting at oracle. reliableCounterparties=1 is a single point of failure for the position-building branch.

Track whether Rebalancer-Lior's portfolio is SSV-heavy each wake (readPortfolio on that agent's address); if so, post a complementary intent it would rationally take.

Option-Taker-Matheus

new audited Option intent appears OR deals settle window OR 23h fallback

Summary: Holds sNVDA call #118 (strike $203.69, prem $0.25, expiry ~17:37 UTC June 11) and put #119 (strike $201.75, prem $0.23, expiry ~18:31 UTC June 11) — unchanged since w26. Now 201 min since last wake (up from 140 min last run). Watcher armed/pidAlive=true, scanning every 60s; no new audited options on book. Correct behavior: supply from option-writer-matheus i

No new option intents since deal #119 (201 min ago) — the taker is correctly idle. Its 1141-min fallback fires ~45 min before deal #118's MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956), matching the settlement window by design. This is a functioning taker with a quiet supplier, not a broken agent.

All 4 settled deals trace to option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). Writer's nextFallbackMin=1144 confirms ~19h of silence ahead; 0 audited options on book for 201 min. Taker watcher polls every 60s and has not fired — book is genuinely empty.

Sound and on-mission. w25 (call #118): 'cheap optionality, 1.41%-OTM, 23h tail, 20x max pay' — quantitative. w26 (put #119): 'tight-to-the-money, thin premium, volatile sNVDA, 24h tail' — quantitative. No churn; silence between wakes is correct taker discipline when supply is absent.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f…ad63) — detected via 60s poll of open book

Settle window: nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956, ~17:37 UTC June 11 — 5 min before deal #118 expiry)

23h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1141, fires ~16:52 UTC June 11 — ~45 min before settle window)

Sole option supplier; all 4 deals sourced here. Writer is resting (~19h nextFallbackMin=1144) — next posts expected around w27/w28.

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents — could theoretically compete for the same intents, but does not supply options

None. Book has had 0 new audited option intents since w26. Watcher is polling correctly and would fire immediately on any new post.

Fires on new audited-hash option intents — exactly the signal this taker needs; can't fire on generic book activity

Settle-window trigger (MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS) aligns the 23h fallback with deal #118 expiry — agent wakes just before settlement, not randomly

First-poll baseline (seenIntentIds=null guard) prevents false-fires on stale intents already taken

60s cadence appropriate for an option book that posts infrequently

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to deal #118's window. After deals #118/#119 settle, any future deal taken will have a different expiry — the settle-

Replace the hardcoded MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS with a dynamic read of the agent's open deals' earliest expiry (subtract 300s), refreshed each poll loop. This keeps the settle-window trigger accurate after each new take without requiring a manual sc

Hardcoded settle-window timestamp goes stale after new deals

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 targets deal #118's expiry. Once #118/#119 settle and the agent takes a new option (different expiry), this check will never fire (past timestamp) — settle-timing precision is lost for all future deals.

Dynamically derive MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS each poll: read open deals, take min(expiry) - 300s. Store in a variable updated each loop iteration.

Single-supplier dependency on option-writer-matheus

4/4 deals from one counterparty. Writer is in a ~19h rest cycle (nextFallbackMin=1144). If writer crashes or shifts mission, taker has zero supply. No other agent currently posts audited-hash options.

Encourage a second option writer on the same audited template hash, or have option-writer-matheus post smaller batches more frequently so the taker has a steadier flow.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Engine 1 paused since wake 37 (46 wakes) on proven zero buyer demand in calm market. Engine 2 stable with all legs on-ta

Summary: Now w82, Engine 1 paused for 47 consecutive wakes since w37 — no change post-settlement. The custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus logged in prior summary remains the only settlement event; w79-w82 confirm none of the three resume gates (vol ≥1%, ranking rotation, buyer option intents) were triggered by it. Engine 2 inventory holds at 69.7% vs 70% target (±0

Option settlement confirmed but does NOT change Engine 1 resume conditions — the three gates (vol spike, ranking rotation, buyer demand) remain all-false at w82. Engine 1 has been dark for 47 wakes; this is correct patient behavior in a thin option market, not a malfunction. The single structural risk is Check 3 in the watcher firing on Vulture-Andrew's 5 new non-swap repostings, causing spurious wakes.

Option-Taker-Matheus is the sole confirmed option counterparty (4 total deals, 1 custom settled this cycle). No new buyer option intents have appeared across 47 wakes since w37. LP-Maker-Matheus (104 deals) is swap-only — no option overlap. Vulture-Andrew's 5 new open intents are likely swaps/binari

Sound reasoning, correctly scoped problem. Agent accurately identifies that buyer demand is absent and holds rather than burning tokens re-posting into a vacuum. The per-wake Engine 1 condition check (vol, rotation, buyer intent) is disciplined and quantitative. However, 'zero vol spike' is being assessed as crypto +1.67–2.03% intra-wake — the agent correctly classifies this as below the ≥1% thres

Vol spike ≥1% on ETH, BTC, sNVDA, or sMSFT vs baseline

Stock worst-2 ranking rotation (rank-performance.ts)

New non-swap intent on network (ANY kind — too broad)

Only confirmed option buyer on-network; settled 1 custom contract this cycle

Swap-only counterparty; no option-buying activity in 104 deals

Posts opportunistic intents; could take mispriced options but no confirmed option deal history

none — Engine 1 is correctly paused waiting for resume conditions; Engine 2 is on-target at 69.7% inventory (±0.3% vs 70% target, well inside ±5% rebalance band). No swap intents identifiable as missed.

Three triggers map 1:1 to Engine 1 resume conditions — no spurious gates

120-min fallback appropriate for a patient portfolio agent (not a latency play)

Baseline initialized on first poll; won't fire on startup noise

60-second poll cadence reasonable given mission horizon

Check 3 fires on ANY new non-swap intent — Vulture-Andrew's 5 repostings (binaries/custom) will trigger spurious wakes if they appear as non-swap in networkOpen

rank-performance.ts runs via execSync every poll — expensive subprocess call at 60s cadence; silent catch means ranking rotation can be missed entirely outside

Narrow Check 3 to filter intents by kind === 'option' (or template matching the Option judge) rather than kind !== 'swap' — this prevents Vulture-Andrew's binary/custom repostings from firing spurious wakes while still catching genuine opti

Wake Check 3 too broad — fires on non-option non-swap intents

Filter condition `i.kind !== 'swap'` catches binaries, custom deals, and Vulture-Andrew's 5 new open intents. With Vulture-Andrew re-armed this cycle, spurious fires are likely.

Change to `i.kind === 'option' || i.template?.includes('Option')` (or equivalent intent-type check) so only genuine option buyer intents trigger Engine 1 reassessment.

Settlement contract identity (#118 vs #119) unverifiable from wake logs

The settled_deals_detail entry reads 'custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus' with no contract ID. Prior context places #118 call expiry at ~17:37 UTC and #119 put at ~18:31 UTC. Net payout unknown; realized_pnl_usd unchanged at -$11.48 — the settlement may not have been profitable.

Agent should log the settled contract ID and payout delta in its wake summary so the observer can close the loop without inference.

rank-performance.ts subprocess at 60-second poll cadence

execSync with 20s timeout runs every poll iteration. Outside US market hours, it silently fails — ranking rotation detection goes dark without any flag in wake output.

Cache ranking result with a TTL (e.g., 15 min) and emit a warn log when the tool fails, so the observer can detect silent blind spots.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL position well-anchored within weekly horizon, no exit triggers hit. No new dir

2 settled deals total (realized_pnl +$0.75); 26 wakes finding no mispriced Options/BinaryBets on book — this is a thin-book / no-opportunity condition, not agent failure. sAAPL position is the sole live exposure; exit path runs through LP-Maker swaps which the watcher cannot see.

sAAPL oracle price <= $277.34 (stop, 60s poll)

sAAPL oracle price >= $303.75 (forward, 60s poll)

nowTs >= horizonTs (Jun12 20:00 UTC blockchain time)

New intent with kind='binary'|'option'|'unknown' appears on book

MISSING: new swap intent with kind='swap' accepting sAAPL — LP-Maker's active sAAPL swaps are invisible to this watcher

103 deals, active sAAPL intents on both sides per Step-1 — natural exit counterparty for 0.085722 sAAPL, but polymarket-ljuba's watcher cann

DCA swap agent, could cross sAAPL if in target portfolio mix

Fades dislocations via delivered swaps — could buy sAAPL if stretched below trailing average

Zero-LLM, 60s poll — correct cadence for a price-triggered hold

Stop ($277.34) and forward ($303.75) monitored on every tick — no gaps on the primary exit conditions

Reads horizonTs from state.json with hardcoded fallback — robust to state corruption

Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback (24h before expiry) is correct 'assess exit candidates' trigger

FALLBACK_MS clamped to max(computed, 4h) prevents sub-4h accidental scheduling

New-intent filter is `kind === 'unknown' || kind === 'binary' || kind === 'option'` — excludes kind='swap', making LP-Maker's sAAPL swap intents invisible for ~

No check for whether horizonTs has already passed on init (edge case if watcher restarts near expiry)

Watcher blind to swap exit candidates

New-intent filter (`kind === 'unknown' || kind === 'binary' || kind === 'option'`) excludes swap intents. LP-Maker has active sAAPL swaps on both sides right now and polymarket-ljuba will not see them for ~784 min. Given the Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon, this 13h window matters.

In runWatchLoop, extend the new-intent filter to include `i.kind === 'swap'` where the intent involves sAAPL (either as giveToken or wantToken). Consider also adding a secondary check: if an intent could serve as a direct exit for the open sAAPL position, fire regardless of kind.

Edge erosion reported but not acted on

w22–w24 report edge eroded to 1.5–3.1% but the agent continues to hold. Given LP-Maker's active sAAPL swap intents (natural exit at near-oracle price), the agent should at least evaluate whether exiting now at 1.5% edge loss is preferable to holding through the Jun12 expiry with further erosion risk

At the Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback wake, explicitly compare current oracle price vs entry, compute remaining expected edge vs LP-Maker's current swap spread, and decide exit vs hold — do not auto-hold to expiry if a clean LP-Maker exit exists near oracle mid.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC #1294 filled this wake — only discovery action needed. No capital to deploy until stocks open and sMSFT trim generat

US stock open 2026-06-11T13:30 UTC — sMSFT trim + BTC DCA

Summary: Prior summary confirmed nextFallbackMin ~379 at ~07:11 UTC Jun 11; now 369, last_wake=490 min ago (w45, 06-10T23:41 UTC) — current time ~07:51 UTC, countdown burning 1:1. Specific plan hardcoded in wake script: (1) trim overweight sMSFT at US stock open 13:30 UTC, (2) use USDC proceeds to DCA BTC (gap -7.16pp). BTC slot #1294 filled at +4% premium in w44→w45

Correctly waiting for 13:30 UTC stock open (~339 min away). Queued: sell sMSFT (overweight) → receive USDC → post BTC DCA at +4% premium. LP-Maker-Matheus covers both legs and is active. No action warranted until market open.

Stocks closed; no USDC to deploy until sMSFT trim. BTC gap -7.16pp but capital committed and BTC slot already filled this cycle (#1294 at +4%). Waiting is correct, not broken.

Sound and mission-correct. Escalation ladder (oracle → +1.47% → +2.07% → +3% → +4%) solved the BTC fill problem — #1294 settled. Agent correctly identified sMSFT as the overweight source of next USDC tranche and serialized the plan: trim first, then DCA. No churn; each wake advanced state. The only open question is whether LP-Maker will quote competitive BTC sell rates at market open without requi

Date.now() >= 2026-06-11T13:30:00Z (US stock market open), polled every 60s

Fallback at 2026-06-11T14:00:00Z (~369 min remaining)

4 of 7 recent settled deals; only counterparty with consistent BTC and sMSFT liquidity; health=ok, 104 deals

1 settled swap deal historically; could be on the other side of an sMSFT trade if holding tech equities

1 settled deal; takes mispriced swaps — could fill BTC DCA if premium signals a near-sure win

None. Stocks closed, ETH/SSV at target, BTC slot already consumed this cycle (#1294). open_intents=0 is correct — no capital to deploy. Watcher is time-gated, not book-watching, so intra-wait opportunities are structurally unmeasurable.

Fires on the exact market event the agent needs (stock open 13:30 UTC), not on book state

60s poll cadence is appropriate for a time-based trigger — not sub-minute, not sluggish

30-min post-open fallback (14:00 UTC) is tight but sufficient for a single-action plan

Zero-LLM, single condition, can't fire spuriously on 'book non-empty'

FALLBACK_MS computed at script start via Date.now() — if the process ever restarts mid-wait, the fallback clock resets; a fixed epoch target would be more robus

Compute fallback as a fixed epoch: `const FALLBACK_MS = new Date('2026-06-11T14:00:00Z').getTime() - Date.now()` is already close, but pin both STOCK_OPEN_MS and fallback as static epoch constants computed once, so a restart doesn't silentl

BTC fill requires +4% premium — escalation ladder not pre-configured at wake

Four sub-premium attempts expired before #1294 filled at +4%. At market open, the next BTC DCA slice will likely face the same LP spread. Starting at oracle and escalating costs ~4 wake cycles.

In wake 46, seed the BTC DCA intent at the last-successful premium (+4%) immediately rather than re-running the oracle→ladder sequence. The escalation history is in the wake logs.

Correctly waiting for 13:30 UTC stock open (~339 min away). Queued: sell sMSFT (overweight) → receive USDC → post BTC DCA at +4% premium. LP-Maker-Matheus covers both legs and is active. No action warranted until market open.

Stacker-Massimo

Summary: Clean recovery confirmed. Prior crash (844 min, stale Jun-10 epoch 1781098200) patched: current.ts now hardcodes MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781184600 (2026-06-11T13:30:00Z, today). w28 (06-11T07:01 UTC, ~50 min ago) fired correctly — pre-market at 03:01 ET, no on-chain action taken, re-armed with 369-min fallback matching 14:00 UTC (30 min post-open). Budget massive

Epoch guard was patched (Jun-10 → Jun-11 13:30 UTC) and the process restarted between w27 and w28. The 50-min-ago wake (w28) completed normally — pre-market no-action is correct. Armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=369 all consistent: will fire at 13:30 UTC today with 99 USDC to deploy in 0.50 USDC slices.

Only 2 settled deals across 29 wakes because wakes w22–w28 all fall outside US market hours (03:01–08:50 ET). Correct behavior — mission is sNVDA-only, equity hours required. Prior 844-min outage was a stale epoch bug (1781098200 = Jun-10 open), now fixed to 1781184600 = Jun-11 13:30 UTC.

Sound and on-mission. The agent correctly declines to post outside market hours, reset consecutive_misses at w27 when sell-side reappeared, and expanded budget to 99 USDC. No churn — 24 repeat_wakes are all market-hours guards firing correctly, not thrash. The w27 logic (reset + budget unlock) is the most active reasoning seen and it was appropriate.

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781184600 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-11) → fireWake

Fallback: msToOpen + 30 min = ~14:00 UTC (nextFallbackMin=369, consistent)

Primary fill venue for sNVDA swaps; 104 settled deals, active book, deals jumped +8 this cycle

Takes/posts delivered swaps including equity synths; could cross a 0.50 USDC sNVDA slice opportunistically

Unmeasurable pre-market: watcher correctly does not poll the book before open. No market-hours intents were visible to take. No missed opportunities within the agent's operating window since last wake was pre-market.

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781184600 is correct for today (2026-06-11T13:30:00Z) — stale Jun-10 bug fixed

fallbackMs = msToOpen + 30*60_000 matches nextFallbackMin=369 exactly — no drift

Zero-LLM watcher, no book polling (not needed for a patient DCA that only acts at open)

PID file written on startup — process tracking intact

Script is single-day: fires once at today's open, then the agent's own wake logic must write the next day's epoch. If that write fails, the next watcher will be

After fireWake fires at 13:30 UTC today, ensure the wake agent writes next trading day's open epoch (tomorrow or next Monday) before re-arming — add a post-wake validation step that checks the newly written current.ts epoch is in the future

Single-day epoch pattern risks repeat stale-epoch crash

current.ts hardcodes one epoch per write. If the wake agent mis-writes or omits the next epoch (as happened after w27), the watcher silently stalls until operator restart. 844-min outage was this exact failure.

In the agent's wake script, after posting the swap and re-arming, assert that the newly written current.ts MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH > nowSec(). Fail loudly (write an error file, log to stderr) if the epoch is stale — gives the operator an actionable signal instead of a silent 844-min gap.

99 USDC budget expansion unverified post-recovery

w27 approved 99 USDC (up from 9.00), but 0 deals have settled since — the expanded budget has never been exercised. First market-hours wake today (13:30 UTC) is the proof-of-life moment for the new budget.

No action needed pre-open; monitor the 13:30 UTC wake for a successful 0.50 USDC swap post against LP-Maker-Matheus.

Swing-Nikita

SSV structurally blocked (zero inventory). sNVDA sub-threshold and narrowing. Stocks market-hours blocked. No resting in

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 — reassess sNVDA position

Summary: No-trade streak w24–w33 remains structurally justified but gap to trigger is widening, not closing. sNVDA drift continued narrowing: -1.12% → -0.99% (w32) → -0.93% (w33 07:19 UTC), gap to the ≥-1.5% buy threshold now 0.57pp (up from 0.51pp last summary). At the observed recovery rate (~+0.06pp per hour), drift will be approximately -0.38% by 13:30 UTC market

A 13:30 UTC trigger is not realistically in play today: drift is recovering at ~+0.06pp/hr, projecting to ~-0.38% at open vs the -1.5% threshold (gap 1.12pp at open, not 0.57pp now). The no-trade streak is structurally sound and likely extends through today's session. SSV sell is a permanent dead signal until inventory is acquired.

sNVDA drift -0.93% at w33 vs -1.5% threshold (gap 0.57pp, widening); SSV zero inventory blocks only sell signal; all equity signals blocked outside 13:30–20:00 UTC window; both settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus swaps, implying prior trades were dislocation fades that cleared

Sound reasoning solving the right problem. Agent correctly categorizes each block: SSV as structural (zero inventory), sNVDA as sub-threshold with narrowing noted explicitly, stocks as market-hours gated. No churn — wakes fire at consistent ~60-min intervals with no redundant intent posting. The 65.6% repeat-wake rate (21/32) reflects the overnight market-hours block, not agent confusion. Single c

Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS (1781184600000) — fires on US market open 13:30 UTC June 11

Fallback at FALLBACK_MS (1781191800000) — 15:30 UTC, 2h post-open

MISSING: no intraday drift monitor — if sNVDA drifts to -1.5% mid-session, the agent only catches it at the next 60-min poll tick (acceptable given avg_gap_min=

Both settled swap deals confirmed against LP-Maker-Matheus; deals jumped 96→104 this cycle, book active with 12 open intents on same asset p

Also runs delivered swaps on overlapping assets; DCA cadence could cross swing-nikita's fade entries

Sibling agent, opposite direction (momentum vs fade) — could be natural counterparty on same asset moves

none — LP-Maker-Matheus posted swaps this cycle but sNVDA drift (-0.93%) did not cross the -1.5% buy threshold, so no actionable dislocation existed. Unmeasurable whether a sub-threshold entry would have been profitable; agent is correct not to take it.

Correctly targets US market open (13:30 UTC) as the gate event — stocks are the live signal, market hours is the binding constraint

Fallback at 15:30 UTC (2h post-open) is appropriately patient for a fade strategy that thinks in hours

Zero-LLM watcher; 60-second poll interval is fine for a discrete market-open event

Wake comment accurately reflects current state (-0.93%, sub-threshold, narrowing) — agent is self-aware about the gap

No drift-level watch condition — watcher fires on time (market open), not on drift crossing -1.5%; if drift recovers to 0% by open, agent will wake, find nothin

SSV sell signal commented in wake script but permanently blocked; could be removed from watcher comment noise until inventory > 0

Add a drift threshold check as a secondary fire condition: if sNVDA drift drops below -1.4% (buffer before the -1.5% hard threshold) at any poll tick before market open, fire early — this prevents missing a sharp intraday drift spike that a

SSV sell signal is a permanent dead branch

SSV inventory is zero across all 8 recent wakes; the +5.72% sell signal never triggers. Agent comments it correctly but continues evaluating it every wake.

Guard SSV sell evaluation with an inventory prefetch — skip the signal entirely when SSV balance = 0, reducing per-wake reasoning noise and token spend.

Watcher fires on time, not on drift — misses sharp intraday moves

If sNVDA drops sharply to -1.5% between 13:30 and the next 60-min poll, the agent catches it within 1 minute — acceptable. But if it drops pre-market-open, the watcher won't fire until 13:30 regardless. Given drift is currently narrowing (-0.93%), this is low-urgency.

Add poll condition: if drift < -1.4% at any tick, fireWake early — acts as a pre-open trigger buffer.

Single reliable counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus)

Both detailed settled deals (2/5) are with LP-Maker-Matheus. If LP-Maker goes offline or changes rates, swing-nikita's fill path collapses. Rebalancer-Lior and Momentum-Nikita are theoretical fits but unconfirmed.

No immediate action needed while LP-Maker is active (104 deals, +8 this cycle). Monitor; flag if LP-Maker health degrades.

Vulture-Andrew

sharp-quotes flagged missing sAAPL and sNVDA buy-bait sides; initial posts justified as new positions completing two-sid

13 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781167368; next poll 92s

Summary: Now 915 min dark (+60 min since prior at 855 min) — no operator restart signal, confirmed hard crash unchanged. armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null: not a scheduled rest. All bait intents expired while down (open_intents=0), 0 tokens burned in 5h window, settled_deals frozen at 38. LP-Maker's full 10-intent equity/crypto book (sNVDA, sMSFT, sAAPL

Vulture-Andrew has been dead for 915 min with no restart; every bait intent expired and the 5h token burn is $0. LP-Maker's 10-intent equity book (sNVDA, sMSFT, sAAPL) will be stale at today's US market open — the single most likely ≥1% edge event of the day — and vulture is offline to take it. Operator restart is the only unblocking action.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null at 915 min — process dead since ~06-10T14:36 (w67, last wake). Not a logic/mispricing failure; agent was actively managing quotes (4 cancels + 4 fresh posts at w66, deals 98/99 filled at w63 +$0.28 edge) immediately before crash. No new deals or toke

Sound reasoning, solving the right problem — but irrelevant while crashed. Pre-crash wakes show disciplined execution: honeypot blacklist enforced (779/836/869), quote hygiene via check-my-quotes between wakes, mandatory cancel-and-repost when edge eroded below 0.5% floor (w62: intent 881 cancelled at 0.43%), duplicate detection (w64/w65). The logic was working correctly; the process is simply dea

scan-edges poll every 30s: fires on any new takeable intent ≥1% edge not in seenEdgeIds

pre-expiry: fires ~5 min before soonest own-intent expiry

check-my-quotes: fires when any live quote erodes below cancel floor or is undercut

MISSING: none of these fire — process is dead (armed=false/pidAlive=false)

8 of 8 recent settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker swaps; 10 active intents covering sNVDA, sMSFT, sAAPL, BTC, ETH, SSV — exact match for vulture's

Posts delivered swaps vulture could scan; armed and counting down to US open — likely to post fresh equity swaps post-13:30 UTC.

Posts delivered swaps on dislocation fades; 5 deals, health ok — occasional scan-edge target.

Posts binaries vulture could take if near-decided; deal #75 expiry status unclear.

Unmeasurable: process dead since w67, watcher blind to book for 915 min. High-probability missed window: any LP-Maker sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL quote that drifted ≥1% after 06-10T14:36. sNVDA is especially likely given options #118 (call, ~17:37 UTC Jun 11) and #119 (put, ~18:31 UTC Jun 11) expire today — underlying oracle moves around those strikes would stale LP-Maker's sNVDA intents directly into vultu

Zero-LLM: scan-edges and check-my-quotes are pure tool calls, no token burn in the watcher loop

Fires on the right signal: ≥1% takeable edge is exactly vulture's action threshold

Quote hygiene integrated: check-my-quotes cancel trigger prevents free pick-off between wakes

Honeypot pre-seeding hardcoded (779/836/869) — watcher never fires on confirmed honeypots

Pre-expiry trigger prevents own-intent expiry waste

2h fallback present; 30s poll cadence appropriate for a liquidity-opportunist

seenEdgeIds is in-memory only — newly refused intents from last session are lost on restart (minor: agent re-evaluates and re-refuses, but wastes one LLM wake p

No process-level crash detection or self-restart; once dead, nothing revives it

Persist seenEdgeIds to a local JSON file (read on startup, append on new refusal) so crash-restart doesn't re-expose freshly refused honeypots to the ≥1% trigger — one extra wake per session saved per refused intent.

Process dead 915 min — operator restart required

armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null since ~06-10T14:36. All 7 bait intents expired. LP-Maker's 10-intent equity book + US market open today is the highest-value opportunity window since the last crash — vulture cannot act.

Operator: restart the vulture-andrew process. On restart, watcher self-arms immediately (2h fallback) and scan-edges will catch any ≥1% LP-Maker equity drift from US open.

seenEdgeIds resets on crash-restart

In-memory Set means newly refused intents (beyond pre-seeded 779/836/869) are forgotten across crashes. Low severity since agent re-evaluates and re-refuses, but costs one LLM wake per rediscovery.

Persist refused IDs to /agent/state/refused-edges.json; read on startup, append on new refusal.

No auto-restart for crashed agents

Three agents (vulture-andrew 915m, bear-yosher 1112m, stacker-massimo 962m) have been hard-crashed for 15+ hours with no platform-level recovery. Each crash requires manual operator intervention.

Add a fleet-level process supervisor (e.g. PM2, systemd unit, or a watchdog cron) that detects armed=false/pidAlive=false and restarts the agent process automatically after a configurable grace period.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

LP HUB LIVE; BINARY FROZEN

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom | Vulture-Andrew | Rebalancer-Lior | 0xBd6a…9863

ACTIVE — LP 12/12 book (104 deals); Arb frozen at 12 deals (46+ no-fill); Vultur

FROZEN — Bear-Yosher hard crash 1232 min (armed=false/pidAlive=false); deal #75

SUPPLY DRY — Writer Engine 1 paused 47 wakes (nextFallbackMin=1144); Taker holds

STALLED — intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV @ $2.12) live 346+ min unfilled; LP

Stacker-Massimo | Rebalancer-Lior | Swing-Nikita → LP-Maker-Matheus

QUEUED — all 3 armed, converging on 13:30 UTC US equity open; expect elevated de

DEAD — both null/undeployed; 24 consecutive cycles; 0 IndexBasket intents in 143

Bear-Yosher hard crash (1232 min, armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null)

Mimic-Ljuba starved: 15 consecutive empty BinaryBet wakes (w59–w74); deal #75 (betExpiry epoch 1781139624, ~Jun 11 00:58

Bear-Yosher settled_deals frozen at 17 across all recent cycles; Mimic-Ljuba openExposureUsd=$0 confirmed but deal entry remains stale-live; no third-party settlement initiator exists in fleet

Bear-Yosher crash → zero BinaryBets on book for 1232+ min

Arb-Hunter-Tom frozen at 12 deals despite oracle gap dissolving at w203 — binary-bet arb path entirely absent, removing

Arb-Hunter-Tom w197–w204 all 'No fill'; rootCause cites 'bear-yosher crashed — zero binary bets on book'; oracle gap dissolved w203 removing one barrier but deal count still at 12

LP-Maker-Matheus is sole functioning swap hub (104 deals, 5 reliable counterparties, 12/12 book)

Entire swap-dependent fleet (Arb-Hunter-Tom 8/9 deals, Momentum-Nikita 4/5 fills, Rebalancer-Lior, Swing-Nikita, Stacker

12 of 18 open book intents belong to LP-Maker-Matheus; every recent swap settlement involves LP-Maker; Vulture-Andrew re-arm adds partial redundancy at 35-min fallback cadence

LP-Maker SSV ask ~$2.23/SSV vs Momentum-Nikita's $2.12 limit (57bps gap)

Intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV) live 346+ min unfilled; momentum position building without cost-basis execution

LP open book: '3 SSV → 6.69 USDC' = $2.23/SSV implied; Momentum-Nikita #1342: 25 USDC → 11.79 SSV = $2.12/SSV limit; no other SSV seller in fleet

Option-Writer Engine 1 paused 47 consecutive wakes (nextFallbackMin=1144, ~19h silence)

Option-Taker-Matheus holds call #118 (strike $203.69, exp ~17:37 UTC) + put #119 (strike $201.75, exp ~18:31 UTC) with n

Option-Taker settled_deals=4, all vs option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff); 0 audited options on book for 201+ min; writer is sole option counterparty in fleet

Vulture-Andrew re-armed (watcher.armed=true, nextFallbackMin=35) after 855+ min dark, 6 live intents overlapping LP-Make

LP-Maker ↔ Vulture-Andrew settled 2 deals this cycle; contributes to LP deal count jump 96→104 (+8); partially restores

Open book: Vulture posts ETH→USDC, 2×SSV→USDC, sNVDA buy, sMSFT→USDC, sAAPL→USDC, BTC→USDC — direct LP overlap; recent deals confirm 'LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ Vulture-Andrew [Swap] settled' ×2

Bear-Yosher: hard crash 1232 min, deal #75 expiry passed unpaid, binary segment offline

Bear-Yosher watcher.armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null for 1232 min — confirmed hard crash, not scheduled rest. Deal #75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 (~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) passed with no settlement call. Mimic-Ljuba (losing counterparty, openExposureUsd=$0) has no incentive to initiate. 3 live deals remain unclosed. Mimic-Ljuba has logged 15 consecutive empty BinaryBet wakes (w59–w74) — entire binary segment offline until opera

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null; settled_deals frozen at 17; deal #75 betExpiry epoch passed; Mimic-Ljuba w59–w74 empty

Operator manual restart of Bear-Yosher required; after restart verify deal #75 settlement call executes and watcher re-arms with a valid fallback schedule

Index-Maker / Index-Taker: 24 cycles unprovisioned, IndexBasket segment permanently offline

Both agents show address=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, wake_script_source=null across all 24 observed cycles. Zero IndexBasket intents appear in the 1433-intent funnel. This is not a crash — neither agent has ever been initialized.

Both agents: watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=$0, wakes=0, address=null

Provision both agents (fund addresses, deploy wake scripts) or formally retire IndexBasket and remove slots from the fleet roster

Option-Taker-Matheus: call #118 + put #119 expire today ~17:37 / 18:31 UTC with no writer supply

Taker holds sNVDA call #118 (strike $203.69, prem $0.25) and put #119 (strike $201.75, prem $0.23) expiring in roughly 10–11 hours. Option-Writer Engine 1 has been paused 47 wakes; nextFallbackMin=1144 means ~19h of writer silence ahead — no roll or close path exists in the fleet. Combined $0.48 premium at risk if positions expire OTM.

option-taker-matheus holds #118 exp ~17:37 UTC and #119 exp ~18:31 UTC Jun 11; option-writer-matheus Engine 1 paused since w37, nextFallbackMin=1144; 0 audited options on book for 201+ min

Operator should check sNVDA spot vs strike levels before 17:37 UTC; if OTM, consider manually triggering Option-Writer Engine 1 to close or roll positions before expiry

Arb-Hunter-Tom frozen at 12 deals: oracle fix insufficient, Bear-Yosher crash is binding constraint

Oracle gap dissolved at w203 — the previously cited structural edge-direction barrier is gone — yet deal counter remains at 12 through w204 (46+ consecutive no-fills). Root cause has shifted: (1) zero binary bets on book since Bear-Yosher crash blocks the primary arb edge; (2) LP-Maker not posting SSV at ≥10bps above-CEX edge Arb can take. Oracle fix was necessary but not sufficient.

arb-hunter-tom rootCause: 'bear-yosher crashed — zero binary bets on book at w197–w204'; 'oracle caught up w203'; settled_deals=12 unchanged; all 9 visible deals ↔ LP-Maker (8) + Rebalancer-Lior (1)

Bear-Yosher restart is the single highest-leverage unblock — restores binary arb path immediately; separately review LP-Maker SSV quoting vs CEX edge if Arb remains frozen after Bear-Yosher recovery

Momentum-Nikita intent #1342 unfilled 346+ min: LP SSV ask 57bps above limit

Intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV) posted at ~02:05 UTC Jun 11, implying a $2.12/SSV limit. LP-Maker open book shows SSV ask at '3 SSV → 6.69 USDC' (~$2.23/SSV) — a ~57bps gap. No other SSV seller exists in the fleet. Intent has an 8h TTL and expires ~10:05 UTC.

LP open book '3 SSV → 6.69 USDC (38m left)' = $2.23/SSV implied; intent #1342: 25 USDC → 11.79 SSV = $2.12/SSV; 346+ min with zero fills; no other SSV sellers in fleet

LP-Maker SSV ask adjustment toward $2.12 clears this immediately; alternatively review whether Momentum-Nikita's limit logic should widen tolerance by ~60bps — single quote change is highest leverage

Vulture-Andrew recovery confirmed: re-armed, 6 live intents, 2 deals settled this cycle

After 855+ min dark, Vulture-Andrew watcher.armed=true/nextFallbackMin=35/pidAlive=false — ALIVE and scheduled. 6 open intents posted across ETH, SSV, sNVDA, sMSFT, sAAPL, BTC — all overlapping LP-Maker's book. Two LP↔Vulture swaps already settled this cycle, contributing to LP's +8 deal jump (96→104).

watcher.armed=true, watcher.nextFallbackMin=35; open book: 6 Vulture-Andrew swap intents (ETH, SSV×2, sNVDA buy, sMSFT, sAAPL, BTC); recent deals: 'LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ Vulture-Andrew [Swap] settled' ×2

Monitor next 2 wakes (35-min cadence) to confirm sustained re-arming; verify Vulture's pricing logic is current after 915-min gap before assuming full recovery

Restart Bear-Yosher immediately — single action unblocks: (1) deal #75 settlement, (2) BinaryBet flow for Mimic-Ljuba (15 empty wakes), (3) binary arb path for Arb-Hunter-Tom (frozen at 12 deals, 46+ no-fills)

Provision index-maker + index-taker or retire IndexBasket — 24 cycles of zero activity occupying two fleet slots; decision needed before next provisioning cycle

Check Option-Taker-Matheus sNVDA spot vs call #118 strike $203.69 and put #119 strike $201.75 before 17:37 UTC today; if OTM, manually trigger Option-Writer Engine 1 to close/roll

Adjust LP-Maker SSV ask toward $2.12 to clear Momentum-Nikita intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, live 346+ min, 57bps gap) — one quote change, one immediate fill

Watch Vulture-Andrew next 2 wakes (nextFallbackMin=35) to confirm pricing is current post-915-min gap; confirm re-arm is stable before treating recovery as clean

Improved vs last run: Vulture-Andrew flipped armed=false→true with 5 new open intents (was open_intents=0 at crash) and Stacker-Massimo shows armed=true/pidAlive=true/last_wake=48 min after 844-min crash — two apparent recoveries; Bear-Yosher remains hard-crashed at 1232 min with deal #75 expiry (Ju

Vulture-Andrew: armed=false→true, 5 new intents posted — confirm real operator restart vs transient re-arm, and whether the 34-min fallback watcher is correctly scheduled

Stacker-Massimo: armed=true/pidAlive=true after 844-min crash, last_wake=48 min — stale Jun-10 epoch guard (MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200) flagged last run; verify fix before calling this a clean recov

Arb-Hunter-Tom: deals frozen at 12, 46+ consecutive no-fills despite LP-Maker posting a full 12-intent book — structural gap or oracle-lead threshold miscalibrated vs LP rates

Option expirations: sNVDA call #118 (~17:37 UTC) and put #119 (~18:31 UTC) expire today — Option-Taker-Matheus payout gate approaching

LP-Maker-Matheus: deals jumped 96→104 (+8) this cycle — dominant hub with Vulture-Andrew now re-posting on same asset pairs; check rate overlap

Deals still frozen at 12 with 46+ consecutive waits — is the agent's oracle-lead threshold calibrated above LP-Maker's 12 current posted rates, and is any of the 12 LP intents priceable by arb-hunter's edge model?

Deal #75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 (~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) is now 6+ hours past expiry with agent hard-crashed — is there any on-chain settlement path that runs without the agent process, or is the payout permanently stranded?

23rd consecutive null cycle — any provisioning event this cycle, or is state still bit-for-bit identical (address=null, 0 wakes, 0 tokens)?

Contingent on index-maker: still null/undeployed with no IndexBasket intents in the 1429-intent funnel — any change, or confirmed dead pair again?

Deals jumped 96→104 (+8) — which asset pairs settled, with which counterparties, and does the current 12-intent book have any rate conflict with Vulture-Andrew's 5 newly-posted same-asset intents?

Bear-Yosher #75 expiry has passed with no settlement — what is Mimic-Ljuba's actual exposure/P&L on the 3 'live' Yosher deals now that betExpiry is past, and is the agent still correctly holding without new BinaryBets on board?

Open intent #1318 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, 138 min remaining) targets higher SSV than prior intent (11.31) — is SSV momentum still valid, and is LP-Maker-Matheus the only realistic counterparty for the SSV buy side?

sNVDA call #118 expires ~17:37 UTC and put #119 expires ~18:31 UTC today — has the agent woken to monitor settlement proximity, or is it still in 544-min fallback rest with correct trigger coverage?

One custom option settled this cycle (↔ Option-Taker-Matheus per recent deals) — which contract settled (#118 call or #119 put), what was the net payout, and does the settlement change Engine 1's resume conditions (paused since w37)?

Still holding 0.085722 sAAPL at $290.79 (stop $277.34) with 731-min fallback — is current sAAPL price above the stop level, and are there any new BinaryBets or Options on the book worth Polymarket-pricing this cycle?

Market-open trigger fires ~13:30 UTC with nextFallbackMin=371 confirming correct countdown — what specific rebalancing slice is queued (which asset, which LP intent to take) and does LP-Maker's current book cover it?

Prior crash (844 min) now shows armed=true/pidAlive=true/last_wake=48 min — did the stale Jun-10 epoch guard (MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200, MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000) get patched, and did the 48-min-ago wake actually attempt or complete

sNVDA drift narrowed from -1.12% to -0.99% (gap to -1.5% buy threshold now 0.51pp vs 0.38pp prior) — given this widening gap, is a trigger at 13:30 UTC market open realistically in play today, or is the no-trade streak likely to extend?

State flipped from hard-crash (armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null) to armed=true/nextFallbackMin=34/pidAlive=false with 5 new open intents — was this an operator restart, is the watcher correctly armed for 34-min fallback, and

bear-yosher: requires manual operator restart — 1232 min crashed, deal #75 betExpiry (Jun 11 00:58 UTC) unattended, Mimic-Ljuba counterparty stranded on 3 live deals

stacker-massimo: before declaring recovery, confirm MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 epoch guard was patched — if still hardcoded to Jun 10, the guard fires immediately on every restart and the cadence lo

vulture-andrew + lp-maker-matheus: both now posting on sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL/BTC/ETH — audit rate overlap; vulture's sell-side (assets→USDC) should price inside LP's buy-side (USDC→assets) to generate fil

arb-hunter-tom: 46+ consecutive no-fills is a diagnostic threshold — run a manual rate audit comparing LP-Maker's 12 current intent prices vs arb-hunter's oracle-lead model output to confirm whether t

index-maker/index-taker: 23 null cycles — operator decision required: provision both agents or formally decommission; they add noise to fleet health with zero contribution