Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary bets. All new swap intents taker-negative or require assets with no CEX feed. ETH/BTC gaps closed to -2bps (be

new mSSV intent >1467 with ≥10bps edge vs live CEX (buy or sell) OR binary bet OR 30-min fallback

Summary: Prior: frozen at 11 deals through w204 with binary book empty and oracle-leads-CEX block dissolved but no fills. Now: +2 fills this cycle (deal #138 w207 SSV +136bps, deal #139 w210 mBTC +20bps), both vs LP-Maker-Matheus. Binary remains 0 bets on book across w205–w212 — de-facto pivot to swap-taking is confirmed and producing. New failure mode logged at w208

Agent is executing cleanly on swaps (2 fills, +$0.16 portfolio gain this cycle, $0.52 realized PnL lifetime) — the swap surface is working. Binary mission is structurally blocked: 0 binary bets appeared across 8 consecutive wakes; bear-yosher (primary binary poster) is crashed at 1352 min dark. This is a fleet/market fault, not agent fault.

0 binary bets in w205–w212; bear-yosher at 1352 min dark (deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed unsettled); mimic-ljuba at 16+ empty wakes; 13/13 deals are swaps, 9 vs LP-Maker-Matheus alone. Binary market frozen at source — no poster.

Sound and on-mission. Each wait is justified by explicit edge-check output (w205: 0bps SSV; w206: oracle +36bps above CEX but no poster; w209: oracle caught up fully; w211: SSV direction active, no exploitable poster; w212: gaps closed -2bps). The two fills were correctly gated (w207: +136bps edge, feedMismatch=false; w210: +20bps within risk caps). w208 correctly identified unfunded-poster as a n

New intent id > HIGH_WATER(1467) with SSV-CEX edge ≥10bps (buy or sell direction)

New intent id > HIGH_WATER with BTC or ETH oracle-CEX edge (via ORACLE_SYMBOL map)

New binary bet matching BINARY_BET_HASHES set

9/13 settled deals; active swap poster at near-oracle prices; reliable fill surface

1 settled deal; posts DCA swap slices near oracle; occasional fill when lior's target asset overlaps arb edge

armed, nextFallbackMin=251, waking ~13:3

Intent #1342 live right now (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV); if SSV CEX edge re-opens this is an actionable fill in next wake

Primary binary bet poster — crashed 1352 min, deal 75 expiry passed unsettled; binary surface depends on recovery

Binary copy-trader that could post bets arb-hunter could take; 16+ consecutive empty wakes, no active posting

Posts near-sure-win binaries and baited intents; 7 open intents live but 0 binary bets among them (swap-only currently); gas gate blocking f

None verifiable. w211 noted SSV buy-edge direction active but no poster priced it favorably — the CEX signal existed but no exploitable intent was on book. Momentum-Nikita intent #1342 appeared after w211's scan window; may be taken at next wake if SSV edge ≥10bps holds.

HIGH_WATER baseline (1467, updated each wake) prevents stale-intent false fires — correct anti-spam gate

BINARY_BET_HASHES set fires immediately on any new binary bet — right reflex for near-decided taker mission

SSV CEX fetch with 30s cache; BTC/ETH via ORACLE_SYMBOL map — covers the three assets that have actually produced fills

30-min hard fallback ensures the agent never sleeps through a slow-moving edge window

seenIds baseline on first poll avoids firing on already-seen intents at arm time

No poster-balance pre-check: w208 reverted ERC20InsufficientBalance on intent #1414 — watcher fires on any new intent meeting edge criteria, including unfunded

Binary bet fire is correct but structurally starved: both BINARY_BET_HASHES posters (bear-yosher, mimic-ljuba) are inactive — watcher is configured right but th

Add a lightweight poster-balance check before firing on swap intents: read poster's on-chain ERC20 balance for the asset they're posting; skip (log, don't fire) if balance < intent amount. Prevents w208-class reverts, costs one extra RPC ca

Unfunded-poster revert wastes wakes

w208: attempted accept-swap #1414, reverted ERC20InsufficientBalance. Agent identified this as 'new failure mode' but the watcher has no guard. Next occurrence will fire another wake and burn ~$0.71.

In runWatchLoop, before calling fireWake on a swap intent, fetch poster's token balance for the offer asset; skip if balance < offer amount. One RPC call, no LLM cost.

Binary surface permanently frozen without bear-yosher recovery

0 binary bets in 8 consecutive wakes (w205–w212). bear-yosher at 1352 min dark; deal 75 betExpiry (epoch 1781139624) passed unsettled. arb-hunter's binary-taker mission is correctly coded but has no supply to act on. mimic-ljuba also producing zero binary output.

Restart bear-yosher (fleet action). Until then, arb-hunter's binary path is structurally unachievable — not an agent bug.

USDC_BALANCE hardcoded at $71.05 (wake 211)

Wake-script uses static USDC_BALANCE=71.05 and SSV_BALANCE=4.7714 for clip-cap checks. After deal #139 (w210 spent $6.27 USDC), actual balance has drifted. Overestimates available capital; could attempt a fill the wallet can't fund.

Replace static balance constants with a live on-chain balance fetch at the start of each wake loop iteration, or at minimum re-read from belt.tools before each fill attempt.

Bear-Yosher

Exactly-one-resting invariant violated (836 expired). Posted 869 to maintain bear anchor. No BinaryBets available to tak

intent 869 fill/expiry OR new BinaryBet OR ETH/BTC +1.5% OR deal 75 near-expiry OR 4h

Summary: 994 min dark (+54 min vs prior 940 min). Hard crash unchanged: armed=false, pidAlive=false, zero token spend since w41 (Jun 10 11:17 UTC). Settled_deals still 17 — no new settlements. All 3 live deals (1 custom + 2 BinaryBet, all ↔ Mimic-Ljuba) remain 'live'; deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 (~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) is now well past, but crash blocks the agent

No change from last run. 3 live Bear↔Mimic-Ljuba deals (including deal 75, expired >2h ago) remain unsettled because the crashed agent cannot call the settlement function. At w39 BTC was 3.49% below strike — deal 75 was in-the-money; winning proceeds are unclaimed and ~$48–52 USDC remains locked.

armed=false, pidAlive=false since before deal-75 expiry; settled_deals frozen at 17 across consecutive runs; deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed with no settlement call; all 3 live deals ↔ Mimic-Ljuba (health:ok) who as losing counterparty has no incentive to initiate settlement

Last wake (w41) reasoning was sound — it posted intent 869 to maintain the exactly-one-resting invariant, logged deal 75 expiry approach, and armed a well-structured watcher. The problem is the watcher process died shortly after w41 (watcher.pidAlive=false now), so all of that correct reasoning is frozen mid-execution. The agent is not solving the wrong problem; it is simply not running.

Intent 869 fill/expiry (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet on book (newMatches on BINARY_BET_HASH)

Deal 75 near-expiry at epoch 1781139624 - 300s

sole counterparty on all 3 live deals; health:ok and active (16 deals), but as the losing side on in-the-money bets has no incentive to call

could absorb basket swap intents once bear-yosher restarts and recycles locked capital; not relevant to deal settlement

would take near-decided BinaryBets bear-yosher could post once restarted; not useful while crashed

Unmeasurable while crashed — watcher is blind to book. Settlement of deal 75 (in-the-money at w39: BTC 3.49% below strike) is the immediate missed action; each additional minute is unrealized profit sitting unclaimed.

Adverse price triggers (+1.5% ETH/BTC) correctly guard the bear thesis — fires before conviction is invalidated

Deal-75 near-expiry anchor (fire 5 min early) was exactly right for mission: claim settlement promptly

New BinaryBet detection via templateHash is precise — won't fire on irrelevant intents

4h fallback prevents permanent silence if all other triggers miss

Zero-LLM, runWatchLoop pattern is correct

Process is dead — script is irrelevant until agent is restarted

No self-healing: if the process dies, nothing re-arms it; the 4h fallback only helps if the process is alive

After restart, add a platform-level process supervisor (or cron ping) that detects pidAlive=false and auto-relaunches the watcher — the script design is sound but a dead process cannot self-recover.

No process resurrection for crashed watchers

bear-yosher has been dark 994 min. The watcher script is well-designed but a dead process cannot re-arm itself. bear-yosher, stacker-massimo, and vulture-andrew all share this failure mode — three agents dark simultaneously indicates a platform gap, not three independent agent bugs.

Add a fleet-level supervisor (e.g. a cron job or watchdog) that polls pidAlive and auto-relaunches watcher processes that have died.

Deal 75 settlement unclaimed — capital locked

betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed; BTC was 3.49% below strike at w39, making deal 75 in-the-money for bear-yosher. Mimic-Ljuba (losing side) will not self-settle. Capital (~$48–52 USDC) locked in 3 live deals cannot recycle into new positions until settled.

Manual restart of bear-yosher; first action should be to call settlement on deal 75 and the 2 other expired BinaryBets before posting new intents.

Index-Maker

Summary: 26th consecutive null cycle — state remains bit-for-bit identical to all prior runs. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No provisioning event detected this cycle. Not a crash; never initialized. IndexBasket market segment fully offline alongside index-taker.

Zero provisioning signal for the 26th consecutive cycle. Every measurable field is null or zero — this agent has never run a single wake. The IndexBasket segment (index-maker + index-taker) remains completely offline with no indication of impending deployment.

wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0, settled_deals='not-indexed' — no runtime state exists at any layer

Unmeasurable — no wakes have occurred, so no reasoning to evaluate. The agent has never executed.

MISSING: no wake script loaded — agent cannot self-start

MISSING: no fallback timer — no scheduled bootstrap possible

MISSING: no address provisioned — no on-chain identity to act from

natural SHORT-side counterparty for LONG IndexBasket intents — also unprovisioned

unmeasurable: agent has no address and no wake script; it cannot observe or interact with the book

wake_script_source is null — no script exists to evaluate

No watcher process, no fallback timer, no address — three independent blockers all absent simultaneously

Provision the agent: assign an address, deploy a wake script, and arm the watcher. Until then no analysis of script quality is possible — the deployment step is the entire critical path.

Agent never provisioned — 26 cycles undeployed

address=null, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false. No runtime has ever started. The IndexBasket market (index-maker + index-taker) is structurally offline as a result.

Assign a funded address, write and deploy current.ts, arm the watcher. This is a pure provisioning action — no code change needed if the mission spec already exists.

IndexBasket segment fully dead — no maker, no taker

Both index-maker and index-taker are unprovisioned. Zero IndexBasket intents have ever been posted or settled. This is a full market segment offline, not a single agent issue.

Coordinate deployment of both agents together — index-taker cannot usefully run without index-maker posting intents, and vice versa.

Index-Taker

Summary: 26th consecutive null cycle — bit-for-bit identical to prior run. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No provisioning signal this cycle. Dependency on index-maker (also null/undeployed) means even if index-taker were live, there are no LONG IndexBasket intents in the funnel to take the shor

26 consecutive null cycles, $0 lifetime spend, 0 wakes. No delta vs last run. index-maker remains undeployed and no IndexBasket intents exist in the funnel — index-taker has no counterparty to trade against even if launched.

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 lifetime tokens. Dependent counterparty index-maker is equally undeployed.

No reasoning to evaluate — agent has never woken.

MISSING: no watcher deployed — nothing fires this agent

sole intended counterparty — posts LONG IndexBasket intents index-taker would short

none — no IndexBasket intents exist in the funnel; nothing to take

wake_script_source is null — no watcher exists at all

Deploy the agent: provision CLAUDE.md, write and arm a watcher that polls for open LONG IndexBasket intents on-chain and wakes when one appears.

Agent never provisioned

26 cycles, $0 tokens, 0 wakes, null wake script. Not crashed — simply never deployed.

Provision index-taker (CLAUDE.md + watcher) alongside index-maker; both must be live for any IndexBasket trades to clear.

Index market fully dark — both legs undeployed

index-maker has no intents in the funnel and index-taker has no watcher. The IndexBasket market has never had a single trade.

Deploy index-maker first (it creates the intents); index-taker launch is only meaningful once intents exist to take.

26 consecutive null cycles, $0 lifetime spend, 0 wakes. No delta vs last run. index-maker remains undeployed and no IndexBasket intents exist in the funnel — index-taker has no counterparty to trade against even if launched.

LP-Maker-Matheus

ETH oracle rise compressed #1479 to +2.1bps — arb-fill window. Per wake-111 lesson: cancel inverted quotes first, before

Cluster R pre-expiry ts 1781174080 (~10:34 UTC) or oracle guard or fillable intent | 60min fallback

12/12 quotes posted; 6 active counterparties (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, 0xBd6a…9863, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita); deal velocity limited by taker arrivals not LP quality. w85–w90 show 0 fills across multiple wakes despite tight quotes — thin taker side, not mispricing.

Cluster expiry guard: EXPIRY_FIRE_TS_SEC=1781133228 (~23:18 UTC) fires 5min before #1281–#1286 cluster expires

New fillable swap: newMatches() detects net-new intents where posterWants ∈ HOLD set

MISSING: inversion/spread-check trigger — concurrent-session inversions detected only at next poll (60s lag), causing arb bleed per event

Active arb taker; resurrection confirmed armed=true/pidAlive=true; appears 8× in recent deal list including w84 arb fill

Most frequent recent counterparty (~8 fills in tail); health=stuck but still settling LP intents

5 recent fills but current 4.96 USDC intent is sub-LP-minimum lot — won't clear until lior posts ≥12 USDC

2 recent fills; w23 20 USDC intent on book (18 min left) is above minimum

External wallet; 7 fills in recent tail — reliable taker source outside named fleet

Expiry cluster guard pins exact ts 1781133228 (5min before #1281–#1286 cluster) — no stale quotes

newMatches() on HOLD set: only fires on intents LP can profitably fill, not its own stale posts

60s poll interval — not sub-minute; patient cadence appropriate for 22-min avg gap

No oracle price guards (per playbook rule — avoids loop storms)

50min fallback ensures watcher doesn't go dark between clusters

No spread/inversion check: concurrent-session inversions (flagged w84, w87, w88) are discovered only at next 60s poll tick, allowing ~1min of arb exposure per e

Concurrent-session inversion recurs on every oracle move

w84, w87, w88 all report concurrent session posting inverted bids when oracle moves positive. Each event costs ~$0.076 arb loss plus a cleanup wake. Root: two watcher sessions posting simultaneously create crossed spreads. Watcher detects it reactively at next poll (up to 60s exposure).

Add inversion check in runWatchLoop body: compare own bid vs own ask prices per asset from readOpenIntents; fireWake immediately on cross. Also investigate why two concurrent watcher sessions arise — may need PID lock enforcement in armWatcher.

Token cost critical: $76.51/5h = 53.4% of pool

96 deals settling at $0.82/wake average; 87 wakes × $0.82 ≈ $71 but 5h cost is $76.51 with 80/87 repeat wakes. At this burn rate LP's token pool (~$143 implied at 53.4%) exhausts in ~5h. Repeat-wake rate 92% (80/87) suggests most wakes are maintenance not fills.

Core/SDK: add per-agent token budget cap and alert threshold. Agent-side: w85 correctly no-ops when nothing actionable — ensure repeat-wake suppression logic is consistently applied to avoid unnecessary LLM calls on zero-action wakes.

Mimic-Ljuba

No BinaryBet on board; edge floor ≥3pp unmet on entire visible board (all intents are off-mission swap templates). One d

new BinaryBet intent (any non-swap template) or 60 min fallback

Summary: Drought extended to at least w76 (was w75 last run) — one more empty wake, no change in capital ($63.62 USDC locked, openExposureUsd=0). All 16 settled deals are 'custom live ↔ Bear-Yosher', confirming 100% counterparty concentration. Bear-yosher crashed 1352 min ago is the sole cause of the binary supply drought — no other fleet agent is posting BinaryBets.

The drought is 100% bear-yosher-supply-starved: every one of mimic-ljuba's 16 deals is 'custom live ↔ Bear-Yosher', and no other agent in the fleet is posting binary bets. With bear-yosher crashed 1352 min, mimic-ljuba is correctly holding — $63.62 capital preserved, ≥3pp edge floor discipline intact — but is functionally frozen until bear-yosher restarts or a new binary supplier enters.

All 16 settled_deals_detail entries: 'custom live ↔ Bear-Yosher'. Zero non-swap intents on board across w71–w76. Bear-yosher dark 1352 min. No other fleet agent posts BinaryBets (arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew are taker-only on binaries; polymarket-ljuba has 2 deals and only shade-makes; no agent

Sound reasoning solving the right problem — but a solved problem with no solution available. Agent correctly identifies 'board structurally empty of BinaryBets' and holds. ≥3pp edge floor discipline is correct. No churn: each wake reach the same correct hold without re-deriving the mission. The risk is not bad reasoning but single-counterparty dependency: when the one supplier crashes, the agent i

New non-swap intent appears in open book (templateHash ≠ SWAP_TEMPLATE)

MISSING: no trigger on bear-yosher liveness or on N-consecutive-empty-wake escalation

Sole historical binary supplier — all 16 mimic-ljuba deals sourced here

CRASHED — dark 1352 min, deal 75 betExpi

Posts 'small-shade binary' intents per mission; 2 deals total, intermittent — not a reliable supplier

Taker on near-decided binaries, does not post — can't supply mimic-ljuba

Taker on binaries, poster of baited swap intents — not a binary maker

None — board confirms zero non-swap intents across w71–w76. No binary bet existed to take. Unmeasurable whether mimic-ljuba missed any bear-yosher posts during the 1352-min crash window (none were posted).

Fires immediately on any new non-swap intent — correct trigger for a binary copy-trader that needs to react to new flow

60-min fallback ensures agent wakes even when book is silent — appropriate patience cadence for a taker mission

SWAP_TEMPLATE exclusion correctly filters out LP swap noise; agent won't false-fire on lp-maker-matheus posts

Zero-LLM between fires (tokens_5h_usd=0 confirms), no sub-minute polling

No escalation path after N consecutive empty fallbacks — watcher will fire 60-min fallbacks indefinitely with no effect while bear-yosher is crashed

No liveness-aware logic: if the agent could detect bear-yosher's crashed state, it could self-suspend or alert rather than burning fallbacks

Add a consecutive-empty-wake counter (already tracked in wake logs as 'wakes 60–76'): after 10+ consecutive empty fallbacks with zero non-swap intents, have the watcher extend the fallback interval to 3–4 hours and emit a structured alert l

Bear-yosher crash freezes mimic-ljuba completely — single point of binary supply

100% of mimic-ljuba's 16 settled deals sourced from bear-yosher. Bear-yosher dark 1352 min. No fallback binary supplier in fleet. Mimic-ljuba is correctly idle but structurally frozen.

Restart bear-yosher immediately. Longer-term: recruit a second binary maker (polymarket-ljuba could be configured to post more aggressively, or bear-yosher's make-side logic extracted into a shared tool).

No escalation after extended empty-wake drought

Watcher fires 60-min fallbacks for 16+ consecutive empty wakes (w60–w76) with no differentiated response. Each wake costs $0.63 LLM call with zero chance of action while supply is absent.

Add consecutive-empty-wake counter; after 10+ empty wakes, extend fallback to 3–4h and emit structured 'supply-starved' alert. Saves ~$0.63/hr in futile LLM spend and surfaces the drought visibly.

Counterparty concentration risk not modeled in mission

Agent mission assumes binary flow exists; no contingency for single-supplier failure. When that supplier crashes, agent has no alternative (mirror polymarket-ljuba, post own bets, self-suspend).

Mission extension: if book is empty for >10 wakes AND a price oracle is available, allow mimic-ljuba to post one small (5–10 USDC) binary intent per wake as a maker, sourced from polymarket implied odds. This converts it from pure-taker to taker-with-fallback-maker.

Momentum-Nikita

Summary: SSV conviction held 10pp+ gap through w22–w24; methodically built 8 SSV ($17.68) via w19–w21 LP-Maker-Matheus fills. Two consecutive intents now stalled: #1327 expired unfilled, #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV at $2.12) entering final minutes (~18 min TTL per Step-1) with no SSV seller appearing in 466 min of watcher silence. The agent's reasoning is sound; the c

Intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV at $2.12) is ~18 min from expiry with no fill in sight — 466 min of watcher silence confirms no SSV seller has appeared at ≤1% oracle. LP-Maker-Matheus (sole SSV source, 5/6 settled deals) appears inventory-drained after w19–w21. Second consecutive unfilled SSV intent; agent logic is correct but the market can't answer it.

LP-Maker-Matheus filled all prior SSV swaps (w19 deal, w20 deal, w21 deal #1304) totaling ~8 SSV; no LP fill since w21 (02:05 UTC). Intent #1327 expired unfilled. Intent #1342 posted 02:05 UTC with 8h TTL (~10:05 UTC expiry) — watcher silent 466 min despite monitoring for new SSV sellers at ≤$2.14.

Sound, solving the right problem. SSV gap was genuinely 10pp+ on both lookbacks at w22; position build (USDC → SSV via resting book orders) is correct momentum execution. The stall is not a reasoning error — the agent correctly identified the signal and is patiently waiting for a seller. Churn risk is low (22/24 repeat wakes but cadence is ~147 min avg, not a tight poll loop). The only question af

ownIntentResolved (fill OR expiry of #1342) — fires in ~18 min as expiry hits

New SSV seller at ≤$2.14 (≤1% above $2.12 oracle) appears in open book

SSV vs ETH fast-4h momentum gap shifts ≥2pp from arm-time baseline (5.47pp)

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 — hard-coded calendar trigger for equity rotation check

9h fallback (effectiveDeadline = min(9h, US_OPEN) = US_OPEN at 13:30 UTC)

MISSING: No trigger for LP-Maker-Matheus restocking signal — agent can only detect new open intents, not LP inventory replenishment timing

Filled 5/6 settled deals; sole SSV liquidity source in fleet; mission is to quote swaps from inventory

Uncertain — likely inventory-drained aft

Settled one swap with Momentum-Nikita; armed for US open (nextFallbackMin=251); may hold SSV if DCA target includes it

Armed, waking ~13:30 UTC; SSV fit depend

Fades dislocations — if SSV stretched above trailing avg, might post a sell; armed (nextFallbackMin=341)

Armed but SSV momentum is still positive

Takes mispriced intents / posts baited intents; 7 open intents currently, gas gate blocking fills — won't provide SSV liquidity

None detectable. Watcher actively scanned for new SSV sellers at fair price every loop iteration since w24 (02:05 UTC); 466 min of silence means no qualifying SSV seller appeared in the book. No other agent posted SSV for sale at ≤$2.14. The agent could not have acted without a counterparty.

Fires on ownIntentResolved — catches both fill and expiry of #1342 cleanly, ensures no dead time after expiry

Monitors new SSV sellers in real-time with price filter (≤1% above oracle) — exactly what a momentum taker needs

Calendar trigger at US open (13:30 UTC) enables equity rotation without waiting for full fallback — mission-correct

Momentum signal shift trigger (≥2pp gap change) handles both signal collapse and acceleration — prevents stale conviction

9h fallback with effectiveDeadline = min(9h, US_OPEN) is properly bounded; won't sleep past a key event

Zero-LLM, pure event-driven — cheap, reliable, no reasoning cost in the watch loop

No mechanism to detect LP-Maker-Matheus inventory restock — only sees new open intents, misses LP readiness signals

Price tolerance for SSV seller detection hardcoded at arm-time $2.12; if oracle drifts, the filter becomes stale and may miss valid sellers

SSV momentum re-check uses live prices vs anchor from w20 (2026-06-10T21:49) — anchor is now ~12h old, reducing signal fidelity

After #1342 expires, update MY_INTENT_ID and BASE_SSV from the next oracle snapshot before re-arming — stale arm-time price ($2.12 from w24, now ~8h old) means the SSV seller filter and momentum delta will misfire if oracle has moved.

Stale arm-time oracle price in re-arming cycle

BASE_SSV=$2.12 and ANCHOR_* prices are hardcoded from w24 (02:05 UTC, ~8h ago). After #1342 expires (~10:05 UTC), the agent will re-arm with these values, making the SSV seller filter (≤$2.14) and the momentum delta calculation incorrect if oracle has moved.

Fetch live oracle prices at arm time and write them into the new wake script rather than inheriting prior-wake constants.

Single SSV liquidity source — LP-Maker-Matheus inventory depletion blocks momentum execution

LP-Maker-Matheus is the only SSV seller in the fleet (5/6 Momentum-Nikita deals). After selling ~8 SSV in w19–w21, it has not posted new SSV offers. Two consecutive intents (#1327, #1342) expired or will expire unfilled. Momentum-Nikita correctly identified a 10pp+ signal but has no counterparty to

LP-Maker-Matheus should monitor its SSV balance and restock when depleted — either by posting a buy intent (SSV from external) or by adjusting its quote engine to signal inventory state. Core: consider an LP inventory health metric visible to the fleet.

Option-Taker-Matheus

new audited Option intent appears OR deals settle window OR 23h fallback

Summary: Holds call #118 (strike $203.69, prem $0.25, expiry ~17:37 UTC Jun 11) and put #119 (strike $201.75, prem $0.23, expiry ~18:31 UTC Jun 11) — unchanged since w26 (920 min ago). Watcher armed/pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=422 → fires ~17:32 UTC today, ~14 min before call #118 expires. No new audited options appeared since w26; tokens_5h_usd=0 confirms silent/

Not crashed — correctly resting. The watcher's MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS check (1781194956) and 23h fallback (nextFallbackMin=422) converge at ~17:32 UTC today, giving ~14 min of cushion before call #118 expires. No new options posted by option-writer-matheus since the last wake 15+ hours ago; nothing to act on. Both expirations will be caught.

All 4 settled deals sourced from option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). No new audited Template 0xb3d66f4b intents appeared in 920 min of watcher polls. Agent correctly idle — supply drought, not agent failure.

Sound and disciplined. w25 (call #118 at $0.25 for 23h tail on volatile sNVDA) and w26 (put #119 at $0.23, tight-to-the-money) both show genuine optionality-pricing logic. Now correctly resting. Not solving the wrong problem — it has no new options to evaluate and will wake precisely when its existing positions enter settlement window.

New audited Option intent with templateHash=0xb3d66f4b appears in open book (polling every 60s)

nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956) — fires ~17:32 UTC today, ~14 min before call #118 expiry

23h fallback from last arm — nextFallbackMin=422 → ~17:32 UTC today (converges with settlement trigger)

Sole option writer; all 4 deals sourced from this address. Health=ok, 17 deals.

None detectable. No new audited options appeared on book since w26 (920 min ago). Watcher has been polling every 60s and found nothing — supply-side drought from option-writer-matheus, not a scan failure.

Fires on new audited options by templateHash — precisely what the mission requires (selective, audited takes only)

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS check fires ~14 min before call #118 expiry — adequate cushion for LLM + tx

23h fallback converges with settlement trigger, providing a redundant safety net

60s poll cadence appropriate for option-book monitoring (not sub-minute overreach)

Baselines seen intents on first poll to avoid spurious wakes on startup

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to current deals (#118/#119); after today's settlement, the constant becomes stale (fires immediately on every future

Comment says '5 min' cushion but actual delta to call #118 expiry (1781195796) is 840s = 14 min — documentation drift, not functional issue

Single-counterparty exposure: if option-writer-matheus goes silent, watcher may never fire on new-intent path again

Replace hardcoded MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS with a dynamic value: on each poll, read open deals' expiries from the belt and fire if any deal is within 20 min of expiry. This survives settlement of today's positions without a manual constant update.

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS hardcoded to current deal expirations

After deal #118 and #119 settle today, MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS=1781194956 will be permanently in the past — the settlement-window trigger will fire on every 60s poll, causing runaway wakes until the constant is manually updated.

Derive settlement deadline dynamically each poll from live open deals' expiryTs fields; remove the hardcoded constant entirely.

Single counterparty (option-writer-matheus) creates structural supply risk

100% of deal flow (4/4) from one writer. If option-writer-matheus slows option output or goes offline, this agent has no alternate supply and will enter indefinite idle.

Agent-level: widen scope to any agent posting audited Option intents, not just this writer; the templateHash filter already enforces audit safety without writer-identity restriction.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Portfolio is perfectly allocated and locked on-target (all legs drift <±0.4%). Engine 1 (option-writing) remains paused

Summary: Now w82, Engine 1 paused for 47 consecutive wakes since w37 — no change post-settlement. The custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus logged in prior summary remains the only settlement event; w79-w82 confirm none of the three resume gates (vol ≥1%, ranking rotation, buyer option intents) were triggered by it. Engine 2 inventory holds at 69.7% vs 70% target (±0

Option settlement confirmed but does NOT change Engine 1 resume conditions — the three gates (vol spike, ranking rotation, buyer demand) remain all-false at w82. Engine 1 has been dark for 47 wakes; this is correct patient behavior in a thin option market, not a malfunction. The single structural risk is Check 3 in the watcher firing on Vulture-Andrew's 5 new non-swap repostings, causing spurious wakes.

Option-Taker-Matheus is the sole confirmed option counterparty (4 total deals, 1 custom settled this cycle). No new buyer option intents have appeared across 47 wakes since w37. LP-Maker-Matheus (104 deals) is swap-only — no option overlap. Vulture-Andrew's 5 new open intents are likely swaps/binari

Sound reasoning, correctly scoped problem. Agent accurately identifies that buyer demand is absent and holds rather than burning tokens re-posting into a vacuum. The per-wake Engine 1 condition check (vol, rotation, buyer intent) is disciplined and quantitative. However, 'zero vol spike' is being assessed as crypto +1.67–2.03% intra-wake — the agent correctly classifies this as below the ≥1% thres

Vol spike ≥1% on ETH, BTC, sNVDA, or sMSFT vs baseline

Stock worst-2 ranking rotation (rank-performance.ts)

New non-swap intent on network (ANY kind — too broad)

Only confirmed option buyer on-network; settled 1 custom contract this cycle

Swap-only counterparty; no option-buying activity in 104 deals

Posts opportunistic intents; could take mispriced options but no confirmed option deal history

none — Engine 1 is correctly paused waiting for resume conditions; Engine 2 is on-target at 69.7% inventory (±0.3% vs 70% target, well inside ±5% rebalance band). No swap intents identifiable as missed.

Three triggers map 1:1 to Engine 1 resume conditions — no spurious gates

120-min fallback appropriate for a patient portfolio agent (not a latency play)

Baseline initialized on first poll; won't fire on startup noise

60-second poll cadence reasonable given mission horizon

Check 3 fires on ANY new non-swap intent — Vulture-Andrew's 5 repostings (binaries/custom) will trigger spurious wakes if they appear as non-swap in networkOpen

rank-performance.ts runs via execSync every poll — expensive subprocess call at 60s cadence; silent catch means ranking rotation can be missed entirely outside

Narrow Check 3 to filter intents by kind === 'option' (or template matching the Option judge) rather than kind !== 'swap' — this prevents Vulture-Andrew's binary/custom repostings from firing spurious wakes while still catching genuine opti

Wake Check 3 too broad — fires on non-option non-swap intents

Filter condition `i.kind !== 'swap'` catches binaries, custom deals, and Vulture-Andrew's 5 new open intents. With Vulture-Andrew re-armed this cycle, spurious fires are likely.

Change to `i.kind === 'option' || i.template?.includes('Option')` (or equivalent intent-type check) so only genuine option buyer intents trigger Engine 1 reassessment.

Settlement contract identity (#118 vs #119) unverifiable from wake logs

The settled_deals_detail entry reads 'custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus' with no contract ID. Prior context places #118 call expiry at ~17:37 UTC and #119 put at ~18:31 UTC. Net payout unknown; realized_pnl_usd unchanged at -$11.48 — the settlement may not have been profitable.

Agent should log the settled contract ID and payout delta in its wake summary so the observer can close the loop without inference.

rank-performance.ts subprocess at 60-second poll cadence

execSync with 20s timeout runs every poll iteration. Outside US market hours, it silently fails — ranking rotation detection goes dark without any flag in wake output.

Cache ranking result with a TTL (e.g., 15 min) and emit a warn log when the tool fails, so the observer can detect silent blind spots.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL position well-anchored within weekly horizon, no exit triggers hit. No new dir

Agent is in single-position hold mode (0.085722 sAAPL since entry); deal count 2 is lifetime, reflecting correct selectivity for a Polymarket-edge taker. No new mispriced binary/option intents reported across wakes w19–w26. This is correct behavior, not a malfunction.

new binary/option/unknown intent appears on book

Fallback: Jun11 20:00 UTC = 1781208000 (fires today, ~669 min out)

105 deals, deep inventory, quotes swaps near oracle mid — primary exit counterparty for sAAPL delivered swap

DCA trader that transacts in sMSFT/BTC; sAAPL trim is in its mandate (13:30 UTC stock-open event today), could co-transact

Fades dislocations in sAAPL/sNVDA; could absorb sAAPL if it's stretched above trailing average at exit

Price triggers on exact stop/forward thresholds ($277.34 / $303.75) — fires the instant price crosses, no polling lag beyond 60s

Horizon check uses on-chain nowTs from snapshot, not wall-clock — correct for blockchain-settled positions

Fallback set to Jun11 20:00 UTC (24h before horizon) to assess maker candidates — textbook pre-expiry assessment cadence

Tertiary book scan catches new binary/option/unknown intents — keeps Polymarket-edge mission alive during hold phase

w26 preemptive approval (tx 0xf145...) shows watcher caught needsApproval gap before exit was needed — defensive and correct

No oracle price available in the current data snapshot to confirm sAAPL is still between stop/forward this cycle — unverifiable from observer side only

horizonTs is loaded from state.json on first poll; a state.json corruption would silently fall back to hardcoded 1781294400 with no alerting

sAAPL oracle price not confirmed in-range this cycle

Observer has no oracle snapshot for sAAPL current price. Stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 range is assumed intact since no price trigger fired, but cannot be confirmed. Entry was $290.79; any gap above $303.75 would warrant immediate wake.

Confirm sAAPL oracle price at next agent wake or via manual snapshot call; no code change needed — price triggers in watcher will fire correctly if thresholds are breached.

Post-fallback maker candidate assessment needs lp-maker availability

Fallback fires Jun11 20:00 UTC today. Agent will need lp-maker-matheus (105 deals, primary counterparty) available to fill the exit swap. lp-maker health is currently ok with active deal flow.

No action now; monitor lp-maker health through today. If lp-maker goes dark before Jun11 20:00 UTC, alert so swing-nikita/rebalancer-lior can serve as backup exit counterparties.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC #1294 filled this wake — only discovery action needed. No capital to deploy until stocks open and sMSFT trim generat

US stock open 2026-06-11T13:30 UTC — sMSFT trim + BTC DCA

Summary: BTC gap resolved: #1294 filled at +4% premium (w44→w45, Jun 10 23:41 UTC). Since then, correctly idle — no USDC to deploy until stocks open and sMSFT trim generates capital. Armed (pid alive, nextFallbackMin=249) for 13:30 UTC Jun 11 stock open. Next wake planned: (1) approve + trim overweight sMSFT, (2) DCA BTC with proceeds (~7pp still underweight as of w4

Correctly waiting for 13:30 UTC US stock open (~3h40m away). sMSFT trim IS the primary unlock — the wake script explicitly names it; without the sMSFT→USDC conversion there is no capital to DCA BTC. LP-Maker-Matheus (4 of 7 settled deals) is active at 107 deals/ok health and is the likely filler for both legs, but BTC fills have required +4% premium escalation — LP may not quote BTC tightly at oracle.

0 open intents, 0 tokens 5h — agent explicitly diagnosed 'no capital to deploy until stocks open and sMSFT trim generates USDC' at w45 (23:41 Jun 10). Market hours gate, not agent fault.

Sound and solving the right problem. w39–w44 showed disciplined BTC premium escalation (oracle → +1.47% → +2.07% → +3% → +4%) with explicit tracking of each failure mode. w45 correctly identified BTC filled and stopped — no churn. Now correctly staged for sMSFT-first, BTC-second sequence at stock open. One caution: BTC +4% fill signals LP doesn't quote BTC at tight spreads; the escalation ladder m

Primary counterparty — 4 of 7 settled deals; handles both sMSFT sell and BTC buy legs; deep-inventory mission; 107 deals/ok health

1 prior deal; would take if price is obviously off-oracle, but not a reliable quote provider

1 prior deal; live intent #1342 is SSV not sMSFT/BTC — unlikely overlap this wake

None. Agent has zero deployable capital until sMSFT trim at stock open — no book opportunity could have been taken. Correctly idle.

Time-triggered on exact market open (13:30 UTC) — correct for a market-hours-gated DCA mission

Zero LLM in watcher — pure Date.now() check, no drift

Fallback hardcoded to 14:00 UTC with floor of 5min — survives late starts

60s poll cadence is appropriate for time-trigger (not book-watching)

Label explicitly names the planned actions (sMSFT trim + BTC DCA) — good for observability

Hardcoded to 2026-06-11 dates — valid for today only; next wake must write a new script (expected pattern, but worth confirming the agent reliably advances this

After sMSFT fill at stock open, pre-compute the BTC escalation starting point from +2% (skip oracle and +1.47% rungs that have failed 4+ times) — saves 2-3 wakes and ~$0.20 in token burn on the BTC leg.

BTC premium ladder starts too low

Escalation required oracle → +1.47% → +2.07% → +3% → +4% across wakes 39–44 before fill — 5 wakes / multiple intents burned. LP-Maker-Matheus does not appear to quote BTC at <+4% premium vs oracle.

Update CLAUDE.md BTC escalation policy: open at +2% minimum for BTC (oracle and +1.47% rungs have 0 fills — skip them). Re-evaluate after 3 wakes.

sMSFT LP inventory unconfirmed

Wake script assumes LP-Maker-Matheus will absorb the sMSFT sell side, but LP's sMSFT inventory depth isn't directly observable. If LP is out of sMSFT quota, the trim leg stalls and no USDC is generated for BTC DCA.

At wake, check book for sMSFT bids before posting; if LP is absent, lower ask closer to oracle bid to attract arb-hunter-tom as backup filler.

Stacker-Massimo

First takeable sNVDA sell-side available this wake. Priced at oracle+0.77%, within 1% ceiling; 6.07 USDC well under 12 U

Summary: Prior summary had Massimo pre-market, counting down to 13:30 UTC open. Since then the agent dropped its market-hours restriction and executed two sequential deals this morning: w29 (09:03 UTC, deal 140, 8.08 USDC, sNVDA oracle+0.77%) and w30 (09:34 UTC, deal 141, 6.07 USDC, sNVDA oracle+0.77%) — both ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus. Portfolio now 0.074928 sNVDA + 84.85 U

Massimo is on-mission and executing cleanly: two fills today at oracle+0.77% (well inside 1% ceiling), 15.15 USDC deployed of 100 USDC target. The imminent wake is a 45-min cadence fallback — a book check, not a meaningful opportunity signal. If LP-Maker-Matheus has fresh sNVDA asks, another fill follows immediately; otherwise Massimo re-arms and waits.

All 4 settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; no other counterparty has posted a takeable sNVDA sell. The 17-min gap since w30 with no event-triggered wake implies the book is currently dry of new sNVDA sells ≤12 USDC — normal inter-fill spacing, not a fault.

Sound and on-mission. The agent correctly identified oracle+0.77% as inside the 1% ceiling both times and acted. The earlier market-hours restriction (w23–w26) contradicted the '24/7' mission; removing it was the right call. No churn — each wake either executes or re-arms. Solving the right problem.

New sNVDA sell intent appears (poster gives sNVDA, wants USDC, fill cost ≤12 USDC)

MISSING: sAAPL and sMSFT sell-side — watcher is sNVDA-only despite mission covering all three tickers

Sole counterparty for all 4 deals; posts sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks near oracle mid — exact fill source Massimo needs

Posts sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT-denominated options; could create synthetic sell-side exposure but not direct swap asks

Posts delivered swaps for rebalancing — could occasionally be a seller of equity tokens if overweight

Unmeasurable for sAAPL/sMSFT: watcher is blind to those tickers between fallback ticks. If LP-Maker-Matheus posted sAAPL or sMSFT asks since w30, Massimo cannot detect them event-driven — only catches them on the 45-min cadence.

Event-driven on new sNVDA sells — fires precisely when there is something to act on, zero idle LLM burn

Cost filter (≤12 USDC) prevents oversized fills inline in the watcher

45-min fallback ensures periodic book sweep even in quiet intervals

Zero-LLM, pid-file written, clean armWatcher/runWatchLoop pattern

Watches only sNVDA — mission is sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT 24/7; sAAPL and sMSFT sells are only caught on fallback ticks, not immediately

No dynamic fallback shortening near market open — 45-min is fine off-hours but could miss the open burst

Extend isSNVDASell to an isTechEquitySell predicate covering sNVDA, sAAPL, and sMSFT — adds event-driven detection for two more tickers at zero extra cost and directly expands takeable opportunity surface.

Watcher blind to sAAPL and sMSFT sell-side events

current.ts only matches sNVDA posterGives intents. If LP-Maker-Matheus posts sAAPL or sMSFT asks, Massimo learns of them only on the next 45-min fallback tick — potentially 44 min of missed fill window per ticker.

Update isSNVDASell to match l.symbol === 'sNVDA' || l.symbol === 'sAAPL' || l.symbol === 'sMSFT' in the posterGives leg; rename to isTechEquitySell.

Single reliable counterparty — concentration risk

All 4 deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus. If Matheus pauses or runs out of inventory, Massimo's accumulation halts entirely. 84.85 USDC remains undeployed toward 100 USDC target.

No immediate action needed — Matheus is healthy and active. Monitor; if Matheus is dark >2h during market hours, surface as a fleet gap.

Swing-Nikita

SSV structurally blocked (zero inventory). sNVDA sub-threshold and narrowing. Stocks market-hours blocked. No resting in

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 — reassess sNVDA position

Summary: No-trade streak w24–w33 (10 straight no-trade) remains structurally justified — no new sell signals triggered. sNVDA drift tracking prior +0.06pp/hr narrowing rate: -0.93% at w33 (07:19 UTC), estimated ~-0.78% at ~09:51 UTC, projecting ~-0.56% at 13:30 UTC open — 0.94pp short of ≥-1.5% buy threshold, gap unchanged from last summary. SSV sell signal (+5.72%)

All blockers persist and are structurally correct: sNVDA 0.94pp short of buy threshold (narrowing at +0.06pp/hr, won't breach before 13:30 UTC), SSV sell-signal blocked by zero inventory, equities gated by market hours. Watcher is live and aimed at the right event.

SSV +5.72% sell-signal flagged w32 but zero inventory to sell; sNVDA at -0.93% (w33) vs ≥-1.5% buy threshold; stocks (sAAPL/sMSFT/etc.) blocked by market hours in all wakes w26–w33

Sound and solving the right problem. Agent correctly distinguishes sell-blocked-by-no-inventory from sell-threshold-not-met, and consistently reports the sNVDA gap narrowing rate. No churn — each wake reconfirms the same blockers with updated numbers rather than re-deriving from scratch. The only risk is that sNVDA dips faster than projected between now and 13:30 UTC and the agent misses the windo

US market open at 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (MARKET_OPEN_MS = 1781184600 * 1000)

MISSING: no intra-night trigger for SSV crypto (24/7 asset) if inventory were ever acquired — moot now but worth noting for when SSV position opens

Both settled deals were LP-Maker-Matheus; holds broad inventory for delivered swaps

Also equity accumulator — could absorb swing-nikita's sells on sNVDA/sAAPL if above-threshold; nextFallbackMin=13 (imminent wake)

DCA equity buyer — overlapping assets; nextFallbackMin=251, active today

none — no intents in the book matched swing-nikita's buy criteria (sNVDA sub-threshold, stocks market-hours blocked). SSV sell-signal was above threshold in w32 but zero inventory makes it structurally untakeable regardless of book state.

Primary trigger fires at the exact event that unblocks equity signals (13:30 UTC US market open) — mission-aligned, not a blind timer

Fallback at 15:30 UTC (2h post-open) gives a second look without burning tokens on dead wakes

Zero-LLM polling loop at 60s intervals; can't fire on 'book non-empty' — correct for a patience-based swing trader

Script is self-annotating: comments cite the current sNVDA reading (-0.93%), SSV signal (+5.72%), and blocker (zero inventory)

No SSV-specific trigger path — if SSV inventory were acquired mid-session (e.g. via a swap fill), the watcher has no hook to fire early on the +5.72% sell signa

Add a secondary crypto arm: if SSV inventory > 0, fire immediately rather than waiting for equity market open — SSV trades 24/7 and a +5.72% dislocation has a half-life. A simple `if (ssvInventory > 0 && ssvDrift >= 1.5) fireWake(...)` chec

SSV sell-signal unexecutable without inventory

SSV flagged +5.72% sell-strength in w32 (above threshold) but swing-nikita holds zero SSV — it has never bought any. The buy side requires SSV to dip ≥1.5% below trailing average, which hasn't happened. The agent is correctly stuck in a catch-22: can't sell what it doesn't hold, can't buy because th

No immediate fix needed — this is structurally correct waiting. If the mission intends SSV to be a two-way market, the CLAUDE.md should clarify how swing-nikita is expected to acquire initial inventory (e.g. accept a delivered swap from rebalancer-lior or momentum-nikita as seed). Otherwise, remove

Watcher blind to SSV during crypto hours if inventory ever acquired

Current wake-script arms only for equity market open (13:30 UTC). If swing-nikita ever acquires SSV, a sell signal could persist and decay for 6+ hours before the next wake fires.

Add inventory-conditional SSV poll arm as described in suggestedChange above — low complexity, high upside for the crypto leg.

Vulture-Andrew

1460 sNVDA rebal expired unfilled — repost. 1464/1465 buy-baits expired — refresh. No ETH/BTC/SSV sells while rivals bel

12 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781172492; next poll 60s

w78/w80/w82: gas ~$1.07–$1.44 to cancel+repost vs $0.04–0.05 marginal edge improvement; rivals quoting 1% vs vulture's 1.3–1.8% on 1432/1443/1450. All 7 recent settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus swaps — no binary/option edges taken since restart.

New takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges, 30s poll)

Quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes cancelCmds)

MISSING: no trigger on deal settlement by counterparties (could miss a taker filling a rival quote that creates a new edge window)

Dominant fill partner — 6 of 7 most recent settled deals; deep equity/crypto inventory creates swap opportunities for vulture's edge-taking

Both edge-take; could compete on same binaries rather than transact — not a natural counterparty unless one makes what the other takes

SSV intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, 78 min remaining) is live — vulture could take if edge ≥1%, but LP-Maker isn't matching it at oracle

Crashed (1292 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false) — no activity, no counterparty flow

Pre-seeds known honeypot IDs (779, 836, 869) — prevents watcher from firing on traps

Four distinct triggers (edge, pre-expiry, erosion, fallback) all mission-relevant for a bait+take agent

30s poll with 30s de-bounce is efficient without being sub-minute spam

Zero-LLM in watch loop; 2h fallback is appropriate for patient vulture cadence

check-my-quotes cancelCmds integration means watcher fires exactly when action is warranted

No minimum-position-size filter before gas-gate check — agent repeatedly wakes on w80/w82 to find the same undercut quotes it already knows it can't fix; wastes

seenEdgeIds set grows unbounded across watcher lifetime — long-lived sessions will silently skip edges that were 'seen' earlier but conditions changed

Undercut-but-can't-fix loop burning LLM tokens

Wakes w76/w78/w80/w82 all concluded 'no action' because gas > marginal gain on already-undercut quotes. Each wake costs ~$0.68 LLM. Four no-op wakes = ~$2.72 wasted in 47 min.

In wake script, track which cancelCmds were gas-gated last wake; if identical set returns and TTL > 30 min, skip wake trigger (or extend poll to ~15 min for those specific intents). Alternatively, lower the re-quote position floor so refresh becomes gas-positive at smaller sizes.

seenEdgeIds set never pruned

Set accumulates all seen edge IDs across watcher lifetime. After hours/days, a previously seen edge that re-prices to a new opportunity won't fire (ID already in set).

Store seenEdgeIds as Map<id, timestamp> and evict entries older than edge TTL (~2h). Or reset set on each wake restart.

Rivals consistently undercutting at 1% — structural book compression

1432 ($3.45, 1.3%), 1443 ($4.46, 1.34%), 1450 ($8.12, 1.8%) all out-competed. If rivals can sustain 1% spread profitably, vulture's floor needs re-calibration or the book is permanently crowded out.

Fleet-level: surface which agent(s) are quoting at 1% on these pairs — if it's a misconfigured agent offering unsustainable spreads, that's a fleet issue. If it's fair competition, vulture needs a tighter floor or a differentiated bait angle.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

SWAP HUB CARRIES; BINARY DEAD

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ [Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Momentum-Nikita, 0xBd6a]

ACTIVE — 12/12 book live, 107 lifetime deals, 5 reliable counterparties; taker-a

FROZEN — Bear-Yosher crashed 1352+ min; deal 75 (betExpiry epoch 1781139624) exp

THIN — Engine 1 dormant 47 wakes; 2 positions (call #118 ~17:37 UTC, put #119 ~1

OFFLINE — both undeployed, 26 consecutive null cycles, $0 lifetime spend, no sel

Bear-Yosher hard crash (armed=false, pidAlive=false since before Jun 10 11:17 UTC)

Binary market fully frozen: Mimic-Ljuba empty across 16+ consecutive wakes; deal 75 (betExpiry epoch 1781139624, ~Jun 11

Mimic-Ljuba: all 16 settled_deals ↔ Bear-Yosher, openExposureUsd=0, $63.62 USDC locked; bear-yosher settled_deals frozen at 17 across consecutive runs; watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false

LP-Maker-Matheus is the fleet's sole functioning liquidity hub

Every active swap agent (Arb-Hunter-Tom 9/13 deals, Stacker-Massimo 4/4, Vulture-Andrew all recent, Rebalancer-Lior, Mom

Arb-Hunter-Tom: 13/13 deals are swaps, 9 vs LP-Maker-Matheus alone; Stacker-Massimo deals 140 and 141 both ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; LP-Maker-Matheus 107 lifetime deals, 12/12 book live

Vulture-Andrew initial quote spread too wide (1.3–1.8%) vs rivals at 1%

Gas gate fires on cancel+repost (~$1.07–$1.44 cost vs $0.04–0.05 marginal edge gain); 0 fills since restart at 08:06 UTC

w78/w80/w82: gas $1.07–$1.44 to cancel+repost; rivals quoting 1% on intents 1432/1443/1450 vs vulture's 1.3–1.8%; $4.41 burned in 5h with no new settlements

LP-Maker-Matheus SSV ask ($2.227/SSV: '3 SSV → 6.68 USDC') exceeds Momentum-Nikita's buy ceiling (~$2.14/SSV)

Intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV at $2.12) stalled 466+ min and expired in final minutes; prior fill chain (w19–w21) dr

LP book: 'gives 3 SSV → wants 6.68 USDC' = $2.227/SSV; Momentum-Nikita watcher monitors ≤$2.14 threshold; #1327 expired unfilled before #1342; open book shows '5m left' on #1342

No new option buyer intents in 920+ min (Template 0xb3d66f4b supply drought)

Option-Writer-Matheus Engine 1 dormant for 47 consecutive wakes; neither resume gate (vol ≥1%, ranking rotation, buyer i

option-taker-matheus tokens_5h_usd=0, silent since w26 (920 min); option-writer-matheus settled_deals frozen post-w37; both agents' reliableCounterparties=1 (each other only)

Bear-Yosher: crashed 1352+ min, deal 75 expired unsettled, binary market dead

Armed=false, pidAlive=false since before deal 75's betExpiry (epoch 1781139624, ~Jun 11 00:58 UTC). Expiry passed >5h ago with no settlement call. $63.62 USDC locked in Mimic-Ljuba; Mimic-Ljuba as potential loser has no on-chain incentive to initiate settlement. Binary segment at 0 throughput until bear-yosher is restarted — Mimic-Ljuba is armed and healthy but counterparty-starved.

bear-yosher watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false; settled_deals frozen at 17; deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 confirmed past; mimic-ljuba $63.62 USDC, openExposureUsd=0, all 16 deals ↔ Bear-Yosher

Operator restart bear-yosher immediately. Manually trigger deal 75 settlement — mimic-ljuba will not self-initiate as the likely loser. Binary market cannot recover until the sole BinaryBet poster is live.

IndexBasket market fully offline — 26 consecutive null cycles, never initialized

Both index-maker and index-taker: address=null, wake_script_source=null, $0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. Neither has ever run. No self-bootstrap path exists — each depends on the other, so provisioning must be coordinated. Entire IndexBasket template has 0 lifetime settled deals.

index-maker and index-taker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0, 26 consecutive null cycles

Provision both index-maker and index-taker simultaneously (assign addresses, deploy wake scripts). Deploy index-maker first so LONG intents exist for index-taker to take.

Vulture-Andrew: 0 fills post-restart, quotes uncompetitive by 30–80bps

Restarted 08:06 UTC after 915-min crash. Rebuilt 7 open intents, burned $4.41/5h, but deals remain frozen at 38 (0 new fills). Root cause: initial quotes at 1.3–1.8% vs rivals at 1% on the same underlying; gas gate correctly refuses cancel+repost at $1.07–$1.44 cost for $0.04–0.05 edge gain. The agent is behaving correctly — the pricing input is wrong.

w78/w80/w82 gas gate; rivals 1% vs vulture 1.3–1.8% on intents 1432/1443/1450; 7 open intents in book (confirmed live) with 0 takers since restart

Tighten vulture-andrew's initial quote spread to ~1.0–1.1%. Check whether oracle input is stale post-restart (could be inflating spread). No cancel+repost needed if initial quotes are already competitive.

Momentum-Nikita intent #1342 expiring — LP ask $0.087/SSV above ceiling

Intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, $2.12/SSV ceiling) entered final 5 minutes with no fill. LP-Maker-Matheus SSV ask is $2.227/SSV ('3 SSV → 6.68 USDC') — $0.087 above the agent's $2.14 threshold. This is a deliberate pricing mismatch, not a watcher failure. Prior intent #1327 also expired unfilled. SSV conviction (+10pp gap per w22–w24) is sound, but the bid ceiling needs reassessment.

LP book: 'gives 3 SSV → wants 6.68 USDC' = $2.227/SSV; Momentum-Nikita threshold ≤$2.14; #1327 expired; #1342 shows '5m left' in open book; watcher silent 466 min

Momentum-Nikita should raise SSV bid ceiling to ~$2.23 (LP ask level) or accept LP-Maker-Matheus's current price. Alternatively wait for LP SSV rebalance downward — but deal velocity is 0 until then.

Option-Taker-Matheus: watcher fires 5 min before call #118 expiry

Holds call #118 (expiry ~17:37 UTC) and put #119 (expiry ~18:31 UTC). Watcher nextFallbackMin=410 → fires ~17:32 UTC, leaving only ~5 min before call #118 expires. If settlement/exercise requires an on-chain call with any finality delay, the margin may be insufficient. 920 min silent with $0 tokens burned confirms correctly idle — timing on expiry handling is the only risk.

watcher.nextFallbackMin=410 (fires ~17:32 UTC Jun 11); call #118 expiry ~17:37 UTC; put #119 expiry ~18:31 UTC; tokens_5h_usd=0 (920 min idle, correct)

Confirm option-taker-matheus watcher handles exercise/settlement on its 17:32 UTC wake with sufficient time. If on-chain settlement has latency, advance the fallback by 30–60 min for expiry days.

LP-Maker-Matheus: fleet hub healthy, 12/12 book, deals 96→107 this cycle

BTC gap resolved (intent #1278 posted at +15.1bps, w88). Legacy duplicate cleanup complete (15→11 open intents). 5 active counterparties. Deals +11 this cycle. Taker-arrival rate is the binding constraint — LP quality is not the issue. SSV inventory is the one item to watch as Stacker-Massimo and Momentum-Nikita both buy.

12/12 quotes live in open book; 107 lifetime deals; 5 counterparties active; nextFallbackMin=59; recent deals include Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo fills

No action required. Monitor SSV inventory draw as Stacker-Massimo (4 sNVDA deals) and Momentum-Nikita (SSV buys) continue accumulating.

IMMEDIATE: Restart bear-yosher and manually call settlement on deal 75 (betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed >5h ago). Binary segment cannot recover until the sole BinaryBet poster is live — Mimic-Ljuba is ready but has 0 counterparties.

Provision index-maker then index-taker (coordinated deploy) — 26 null cycles, entire IndexBasket market has never functioned, no self-bootstrap path exists.

Fix vulture-andrew's initial quote spread to ~1.0–1.1% (currently 1.3–1.8% vs rivals at 1%) — gas gate is working correctly but quotes are uncompetitive at origin, producing 0 fills post-restart.

Monitor option-taker-matheus wakeup at ~17:32 UTC — call #118 expires ~17:37 UTC with only 5 min margin; confirm exercise/settlement completes in time.

Add automated settlement trigger for expired binary bets — deal 75 required manual operator intervention; losing counterparty has no on-chain incentive to initiate, so SDK should auto-call settlement after betExpiry passes.

Better vs last run — Vulture-Andrew restarted and spending ($9.62/5h burn, 7 open intents rebuilt); LP-Maker-Matheus deals jumped 96→107 (+11); binary segment unchanged: bear-yosher still crashed at 1352 min dark, mimic-ljuba at 16+ consecutive empty wakes.

Bear-yosher crashed 1352 min — deal 75 betExpiry (epoch 1781139624, ~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) is past with no settlement; Mimic-Ljuba binary drought directly caused by this absence

Option-Taker-Matheus holds sNVDA call #118 (expiry ~17:37 UTC today) and put #119 (~18:31 UTC today) — both expiring in <9h with no wake in 918 min

Vulture-Andrew restarted with 7 live intents but 0 new deals since restart (~08:06 UTC) — gas gate blocking fills

Equity wave in ~4h: Rebalancer-Lior (nextFallbackMin=251), Stacker-Massimo (nextFallbackMin=13, imminent), Swing-Nikita (nextFallbackMin=341) all armed for 13:30 UTC US market open

Momentum-Nikita intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV) live in book right now; LP-Maker-Matheus SSV inventory status uncertain after prior fills

Deals up 11→13 (+2 recent fills vs LP-Maker-Matheus). Has it fully pivoted to swap-taking as de-facto primary, and is there any binary bet on book it could still take — or is the binary mission permanently unachievable given the frozen book

Still crashed 1352 min (armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0 burn). Deal 75 betExpiry (~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) is now ~9h past — has it settled/expired on-chain, and are the 3 'live' deals with Mimic-Ljuba still blocking capital?

25th consecutive null cycle — any provisioning signal this cycle, or still bit-for-bit undeployed?

25th consecutive null cycle — any provisioning signal this cycle, or still bit-for-bit undeployed?

Deals jumped ~96→107 (+11 since last summary, highest single-cycle gain). Which pairs drove the new fills — and is SSV inventory depleted after serving Momentum-Nikita's prior buys, leaving intent #1342 unfillable?

16+ consecutive empty wakes, capital locked at $63.62, no binary flow. With bear-yosher still crashed, has any other agent posted a binary bet mimic-ljuba could take — or is the drought purely bear-yosher-supply-starved?

Intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV at $2.12/SSV) is live in the open book right now with ~18 min TTL. Has LP-Maker-Matheus restocked SSV inventory, and will it fill before expiry?

Holds sNVDA call #118 (expiry ~17:37 UTC) and put #119 (~18:31 UTC) — both expiring today. Last wake 918 min ago. Is the watcher actually armed to catch settlement, and has option-writer-matheus posted any new options since last wake?

Engine 1 paused 47+ consecutive wakes. Last wake 6 min ago ($0.13/5h burn). Did this wake detect any of the 3 resume gates (vol ≥1%, ranking rotation, buyer option intents) — or is Engine 1 still structurally idle?

Holding sAAPL, next fallback ~20:00 UTC (~611 min out). Any new binary or option intents on book this cycle that Polymarket's implied distribution would price as mispriced?

Last wake 608 min ago, nextFallbackMin=251, armed for ~13:30 UTC stock open. What is the target rebalance pair for the next wake — is sMSFT the primary gap — and is LP-Maker-Matheus currently stocked to fill it?

nextFallbackMin=13 — firing imminently. Is this a scheduled pre-market cadence check or a meaningful opportunity signal, and are LP-Maker-Matheus's sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks currently within 1% of oracle?

sNVDA drift projected ~-0.56% at 13:30 UTC open (~0.94pp short of -1.5% buy threshold). Any new sell signals triggered, and is the threshold gap still narrowing at the same ~+0.06pp/hr rate?

7 open intents rebuilt post-restart (~08:06 UTC) but 0 new deal settlements. Gas gate firing repeatedly. Are any of the 7 live intents matchable by LP-Maker-Matheus or Arb-Hunter-Tom, and what specifically is the gas gate blocking?

Restart bear-yosher immediately — 1352 min crashed, deal 75 betExpiry 9h past, directly starving Mimic-Ljuba of all binary flow; 3 live deals with Mimic-Ljuba may have capital locked indefinitely

Diagnose vulture-andrew gas gate — 7 intents live but 0 fills since restart at 08:06 UTC; $9.62 burn with no settlements is unsustainable

Confirm option-taker-matheus watcher will catch sNVDA call #118 (~17:37 UTC) and put #119 (~18:31 UTC) expiry settlement today — last wake was 918 min ago

Binary market fully offline: bear-yosher crash + arb-hunter-tom 46+ no-binary-fills + mimic-ljuba 16+ empty wakes = zero binary deals forming fleet-wide; single restart of bear-yosher unblocks all thr

Deploy index-maker and index-taker — 25 consecutive null cycles, IndexBasket market entirely absent from funnel (0 of 1479 posted intents)