account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary bet has CEX taker side in money (BTC/ETH both need >1.3% rally to reach strikes). All 7 new intents taker-nega

new intent >372 on book; bets #32/#89 enter 30-min window at unix 1781019000 if BTC>$64,320 or ETH>$1,708.50; 30-min fallback

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — watcher process did not survive W11 (06-08T19:49); no rearm in 589min; pattern identical to 8/9 other dead agents (SDK epidemic). No agent-side logic fault detected in active wakes.

New intent appears on book (any template)

Bet #32 enters 30-min expiry window AND BTC CEX ≥ $64,320 — NOW DEAD: bet #32 expiryUnix ~1781020800 has passed

30-min hard fallback — only surviving trigger if process were alive

Only confirmed counterparty (W4 deal); posts stale/edge swaps arb-hunter can take as pure taker

Posts near-decided options arb-hunter could take if CEX-confirmed ITM, but W10 logged 'Option template not in mission' — agent may lack Opti

Maker of BinaryBets arb-hunter could theoretically take, but bear-yosher is itself dead (654min)

30-min fallback cadence matches binary bet windows (30–60min typical) — correct for this mission

CEX price check gated strictly to the 30-min expiry window — avoids wasting calls

Baseline 'seen' set on first tick prevents firing on already-known intents

4s CEX timeout with AbortController — robust against hung feeds

new-intent trigger covers the swap-snipe fallback surface cleanly

ANCHORS hard-coded from W11 scan — bet #32 expiryUnix now past, CEX-trigger path permanently dead until next wake rewrites the script

No dynamic bet-scan in the watcher itself — ANCHORS go stale across every crash/recovery cycle

No guard: if ANCHORS is empty (all expired), script silently falls back to only new-intent + 30-min fallback with no log warning

SDK epidemic kill — watcher process does not survive wake exit

armed=false, pidAlive=false, 589min since last wake — identical signature to 8 other dead agents. Platform is not re-launching watchers after agent exits.

Fleet-wide SDK fix: ensure watcher process is re-spawned or kept alive independently of the agent wake process.

Stale ANCHORS — bet #32 expired, CEX-trigger path dead

Current wake script has bet #32 at expiryUnix ≈1781020800 which has now passed. Even on cold restart, trigger #2 will never fire; agent will only wake on new intents or 30-min fallback, missing any near-decided binaries on the book.

Rewrite watcher to scan open BinaryBet intents dynamically at startup and build ANCHORS from live data rather than hard-coding from the last wake's scan.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

No executable action advances the thesis this wake. BTC trending down (3.26% below $65k strike) but bulls still not biti

intent-348 resolved | ETH +1.5% adverse | US mkt open | new tech sell | 4h

Summary: 716min crashed (+60min from 656min, sixth consecutive +60/cycle decay, SDK epidemic confirmed). BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba still shows 'live' — not settled or resolved this cycle. ETH at ~$1,651 is ~$32 below the $1,682.93 baseline, placing the BELOW bet directionally in-the-money by ~1.9%; realized PnL -$2.36 reflects the swap leg (LP-Maker-Matheus) only. Inte

Bear-Yosher has been crashed 716min (SDK epidemic, armed=false/pidAlive=false); its only active position — a BELOW bet against Mimic-Ljuba — is currently ~1.9% in-the-money with ETH at ~$1,651 vs $1,682.93 baseline, but remains unresolved ('live'). Intent 48 is off the book; watcher would fire immediately on recovery.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; 716min with zero self-recovery across six cycles; matches SDK epidemic pattern in 8/12 agents

Single wake (06-08T18:42) was on-mission and sound: SHORT thesis intact, posted BELOW bet (intent 48), started sNVDA basket. Sound reasoning solving the right problem — execution fully blocked by platform crash since.

Intent 48 resolution (filled or expired)

ETH adverse move >= +1.5% from $1,682.93 baseline

New tech-stock sell intent (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT posterGives)

MISSING: BTC adverse price trigger (mission explicitly shorts BTC, watcher only watches ETH)

Active live BinaryBet relationship; Mimic-Ljuba's mission is to accept winnable open bets re-priced to oracle — natural BELOW-bet counterpar

Already settled a swap; provides swap liquidity for stock-basket DCA legs

Stock-basket component (sNVDA) could cross with option-writer's stock intents if they post sNVDA

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book while crashed since 06-08T18:42

Intent-48 resolution trigger ensures immediate wake when the BELOW bet settles or expires — and since open_intents=0, fires on first loop pass after recovery

ETH +1.5% adverse circuit-breaker is proportionate for a bear-thesis agent holding a BELOW position

Tech-sell intent scanner directly supports the stock-basket DCA mission (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

4h hard fallback prevents indefinite silence; zero-LLM poll; correct structure

No BTC adverse price monitor — mission explicitly shorts BTC/ETH but only ETH is guarded

Intent 48 is already off the book (open_intents=0); on recovery the watcher correctly fires immediately, but there is no awareness that the BinaryBet is now 'li

Add a BTC adverse move trigger mirroring the ETH check (+1.5% from a BTC baseline captured at w1) so both legs of the SHORT thesis have a circuit-breaker

SDK epidemic: watcher cannot re-arm

armed=false/pidAlive=false for 716min; same crash pattern as 8/12 agents; 4h fallback never fired because the process died before it could

Identify and fix the SDK process crash preventing watcher re-arm; this is the single blocker for all affected agents including Bear-Yosher

BTC not monitored despite being in mission

Mission says 'Short ETH/BTC by default'; wake script only checks ETH price for adverse moves; a BTC rally against the short thesis would go undetected until the 4h fallback

Add BTC adverse move check (+1.5% from a BTC baseline logged at wake time) alongside the existing ETH check in current.ts

Live BinaryBet unmonitored — expiry unknown

BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba is 'live' with no visible expiry in the data; if the bet expires unfavorably while crashed, agent misses the settlement and the -$2.36 realized PnL deepens without any responsive action

On next wake, log the BinaryBet expiry timestamp and add an expiry-proximity trigger (fire N minutes before expiry) to the watcher so the agent can act before outcome is locked

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

SSV bid needed correction after oracle rose $2.05→$2.06 post-wake-26 posting. Stock quotes needed proactive repost befor

new fillable swap OR crypto-quote repost at ~09:24 UTC (before ETH bid 354 expires)

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

deal #3 expires OR new ≥3pp BinaryBet appears (or 24h fallback)

Summary: Complete reversal from prior summary: agent went from dead (0 wakes, armed=false, null script) to 7 wakes and 1 settled deal (Deal #3, BinaryBet ↔ Bear-Yosher) this cycle. Initialized, operational, and holding an active position. However, the pricing logic uses a hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 flat prior — the agent took the 'above $65k in 24h' side when BTC oracle

Agent is live (7 wakes, 1 deal, armed, pid alive) — a full reversal from last run. Deal #3's claimed +22pp edge is likely illusory: FAIR_PROB is hardcoded at 0.5 regardless of oracle distance, so every out-of-the-money binary looks like an edge. The one realized deal may be a losing position.

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own text), yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM.

Sound discipline (one-deliberate-move rule, hold rather than churn, waits for expiry signal) — but solving the wrong problem. The edge gate uses a 50/50 flat prior for a clearly directional binary, so it will systematically take deep-OTM positions and call them profitable. The reasoning is coherent but the pricing model is wrong.

Deal #3 expiry at DEAL_EXPIRY_TS (2026-06-09T14:10Z)

New BinaryBet on book with takerEdgePp ≥ 3pp (vs flat FAIR_PROB=0.5)

MISSING: oracle-adjusted fair probability — watcher fires on 'edge vs 0.5' not 'edge vs calibrated prob'

Already traded (Deal #3); posts BTC directional BinaryBets that mimic-ljuba takes; missions complement

Both trade BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba also posts small-shade binaries mimic-ljuba could mirror

Picks off mispriced bets; could take mimic-ljuba's self-posted directional intents

Posts Options, not BinaryBets — different template, no structural overlap

None identifiable from current data — watcher is reading the live book and evaluating new BinaryBets each loop. However, the flat-prior edge filter may have passed bad intents (like Deal #3) while the oracle-calibrated filter would have blocked them. Missed opportunities on the downside (bad bets accepted) are more likely than missed good ones.

Hardcodes DEAL_ID + DEAL_EXPIRY_TS — correct single-deal tracking pattern

Fires on deal expiry OR new high-edge bet — dual trigger fits hold-then-rotate mission

newMatches() pattern avoids re-evaluating already-seen intents

24h fallback is proportionate to deal horizon

FAIR_PROB=0.5 is hardcoded flat prior — correct only for a coin-flip binary; any bet with a known oracle price has a non-flat fair distribution

No oracle-distance calibration: takerEdgePp = (0.5 - takerProb)*100 will mark any bet where taker puts up <50% as 'edge', including deep OTM positions

Edge floor of 3pp vs wrong fair value gives a false gate

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with an oracle-calibrated fair probability: read the current oracle price and the bet's strike/direction, compute fair prob via a simple log-normal or historical vol estimate, then derive takerEdgePp against that. One

Flat FAIR_PROB=0.5 invalidates edge calculations for directional binaries

hasEdge() uses (0.5 - takerProb)*100 as edge. For a BTC above $65k bet with oracle at $63,383, true fair prob is ~12–18%; the flat prior makes the bet look like +32–38pp edge when true edge may be negative. Deal #3 was likely taken at negative EV.

Read oracle price + bet strike + direction in the wake loop; compute fair prob via historical vol (e.g., 80% annualized → ~15% daily σ → lognormal CDF for strike distance); use that as FAIR_PROB instead of 0.5. Can be inlined in hasEdge() with a belt.tools.readOracle call.

Self-posted intent (w1) untracked by watcher

w1 posted a directional BTC bet as maker; the watcher only monitors Deal #3 expiry and incoming taker opportunities — no monitoring of whether the self-posted intent got filled or expired.

After each self-post, store the intentId in watcher state and add a fireWake trigger when that intent settles or expires.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

No trade signal. ETH edges BTC but not by enough to clear the 2pp threshold. Building price history.

Summary: w2 (06-09T06:27, 131min ago) passed again — logged 'ETH edges BTC but not by enough to clear the 2pp threshold,' no swap intent posted. After w2 the relative gap widened to ~2.5pp (ETH -2.4% from w1 baseline $1,691.58; BTC +0.08% from $63,405.17) per prior summary — the 2pp decision threshold IS now crossed, but the watcher fires on >3% absolute moves, not r

The focus question is answered: w2 passed — gap was below 2pp at 06:27, logged qualitatively only (no numeric gap in the log). Since w2, ETH drifted to ~-2.4% vs BTC ~+0.08% baseline, making the relative gap ~2.5pp — above the 2pp decision threshold — but the watcher requires a >3% absolute move to fire, so the signal goes unacted until the 4h fallback (~120min from now). One settled deal total (vs LP-Maker), $-0.29 realized PnL.

Wake trigger (>3% absolute from frozen w1 baselines: BTC 63405.17, ETH 1691.58) does not capture the relative gap signal (2pp) that actually drives the trade decision. Current ETH move is only -2.4% — below the 3% trigger — while the 2pp relative gap is met. Baseline is hardcoded in current.ts from

In-wake reasoning is sound and on-mission (rank assets, check gap, post if clear). The problem is upstream: the watcher is solving 'did an asset move a lot?' rather than 'has leadership ranking shifted enough to act?' — sound reasoning answering the wrong question for the signal that drives it.

Price >3% from w1 hardcoded baselines (BTC/ETH/SSV)

MISSING: trigger on relative gap >2pp directly — the actual decision signal — so the agent wakes when the gap is tradeable, not just when an asset moved in isol

Sole swap liquidity provider; 12 live quotes on both ETH sides; fulfilled momentum-nikita's only settled deal

Rebalancer posts directional swap intents (intent #316, 7 USDC→ETH, expiring in ~55min) that a momentum agent could take if direction aligns

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book. Rebalancer-Lior's intent #316 (USDC→ETH) was live during the gap between w2 and now — if ETH momentum direction aligned, the agent could not take it because no wake fired.

60s poll interval is appropriate for price monitoring

4h fallback ensures progress even in quiet markets

BASELINE hardcoded to w1 prices and never updated — after multiple wakes the trigger drifts from current market context; an asset that moved 4% and recovered to

Trigger signal (>3% absolute move) is orthogonal to decision signal (>2pp relative gap) — you can have a fully tradeable gap with neither asset moving 3%, exact

No SSV market maker counterparty exists in the fleet, making SSV monitoring dead weight

Replace the absolute-move trigger with a relative-gap trigger: compute (ETH_return - BTC_return) each poll, fire when |gap| > 2pp — matching the exact signal the agent acts on. Also write updated baseline prices back to current.ts after eac

Wake trigger decoupled from decision signal

Watcher fires on >3% absolute moves; agent decides on >2pp relative gap. Current state: gap ~2.5pp (met), ETH move -2.4% (not met) → no wake fires despite tradeable signal. Agent will sit idle until 4h fallback.

Rewrite current.ts trigger: poll relative gap (ETH_return - BTC_return from rolling baseline); fireWake when |gap| >= 0.02. Remove absolute-threshold branch.

Frozen w1 baselines never updated

BASELINE object is hardcoded from w1 (BTC: 63405.17, ETH: 1691.58). After each agent wake, the new prices are not written back to current.ts, so the watcher permanently compares against stale w1 prices.

After each wake, agent should write a new current.ts (or a state file the watcher reads) with updated baseline prices so the >3% threshold is always relative to recent levels.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: 21st consecutive dead cycle — zero state change from prior run. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, $0.15 lifetime (bootstrap only). Two sequential blockers confirmed this cycle: (1) agent is uninitialized — no watcher exists at all; (2) even if alive, Option-Writer's Engine 2 option sleeve has posted zero option intents since

Two sequential blockers: wake_script_source=null means the agent has never been initialized (0 wakes, 0 watcher), and Option-Writer's Engine 2 sleeve has posted 0 option intents in 182min. Fixing supply alone does nothing — the agent must be deployed first. Fixing the agent alone also does nothing — the book would still be empty.

wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, armed=false, pidAlive=false — agent was never deployed. Option-Writer-Matheus (sole counterparty, 12 lifetime deals) shifted to Engine 2 ~182min ago with zero Engine 2 option posts; open_intents=null for option-taker confirms empty book this cycle.

Unmeasurable — zero wakes, no reasoning trace exists. Cannot assess whether the agent reasons well because it has never run.

MISSING: no wake script — wake_script_source=null, nothing fires this agent

Sole intended counterparty; writes ETH/BTC options via custom Option judge — exact match to this agent's mission. But Engine 2 option sleeve

alive (health ok, 12 deals) but option s

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (wake_script_source=null — agent has never observed the book)

No wake script exists — current.ts has never been written for this agent

No fallback timer, no armed state, no PID — agent is fully undeployed

Write and deploy current.ts: wake on a cadence-based fallback (e.g. every 15-30min) that polls for open option intents from option-writer-matheus matching the ETH/BTC Option template; skip if book is empty (zero-LLM guard); fire the agent o

Agent never initialized — no wake script, no watcher

wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever. The agent has never been deployed. This is the primary blocker — nothing else matters until this is fixed.

Write current.ts for option-taker-matheus: cadence-based fallback poller that checks for open Option intents from option-writer-matheus, guards on empty book, zero-LLM. Deploy and arm the watcher.

Option-Writer Engine 2 sleeve posting zero option intents (182min)

Option-Writer-Matheus shifted to Engine 2 ~182min ago. Engine 2 is supposed to post a 50/50 stock+crypto option portfolio, but zero option intents have appeared. Even a live, working option-taker-matheus would find an empty book right now.

Investigate why Option-Writer Engine 2 has not posted options since the engine shift. Check Engine 2's wake log and intent-posting logic — the option sleeve may be misconfigured or awaiting a price condition it hasn't hit.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Market signal: 6 consecutive rejections of premium options (near-money, ATM, cheap, dear, short-term, long-term) means t

market calm — fire at 13:30 UTC (~8h fallback)

Summary: Through W21, the agent ran a disciplined Engine 1 option reprice ladder (4.4%→2.6%→2%→ATM, 1.5hr→4hr→6hr over 6 rejections) before correctly pausing and transitioning to ENGINE 2 monitoring. 12 swap deals vs LP-Maker remain steady; option sleeve has been idle since the transition. Delta since last summary: another 60 min elapsed (124→184 min post-transition)

Agent is alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true) and correctly paused Engine 1 after 6 consecutive option rejections. But 184 min into Engine 2 with wake_script_source=null: we cannot verify what trigger condition Engine 2 is waiting for. nextFallbackMin=null means no guaranteed wake fires if that trigger never materialises — indefinite silence is structurally possible.

Engine 2 transition at w21 (ts 1780984876) left watcher with null script source and null fallback. 184 min elapsed, 0 Engine 2 posts. All 12 settled deals are Engine 1 swaps vs LP-Maker-Matheus; option sleeve has 0 lifetime takers regardless of engine.

Sound up to w21 — the reprice ladder and engine-switch decision were disciplined and on-mission. The problem is post-transition: the watcher is alive but its script is unreadable and it carries no fallback timer. Sound reasoning solving the right problem inside Engine 1; structural gap in the Engine 2 handoff.

Unknown — wake_script_source=null; Engine 2 trigger condition cannot be audited

MISSING: time-based fallback — nextFallbackMin=null means no guaranteed self-rescue wake if trigger never fires

All 12 settled deals are swaps vs LP-Maker; relevant for Engine 1 swap leg only, not options

Natural taker of ETH/BTC options written here — the only plausible option counterparty on the fleet

health=unknown; likely offline — 0 deals

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (wake_script_source=null); cannot determine if Engine 2 trigger condition has been met or missed

Watcher process is alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true) — not crashed

Engine 1 wake logic was fit-to-mission: fired on option-expiry events and portfolio-drift checks

wake_script_source=null — Engine 2 script not registered or not readable; trigger condition entirely opaque

nextFallbackMin=null — no time-based safety net; agent will not self-wake if Engine 2 trigger never fires

No Engine 2 option posts after 184 min suggests trigger condition is either unmet, undetectable, or misconfigured

Register a fallback timer (≤120 min) in the Engine 2 watcher so the agent wakes at least once per 2 hours to either post or diagnose — null fallback with null script is an indefinite deadlock.

wake_script_source=null post-Engine-2-transition

After w21 wrote state.json=ENGINE 2, the watcher script was either not re-registered or is unreadable. We cannot audit what Engine 2 is waiting for; 184 min of silence with 0 output.

Ensure the Engine 2 branch of CLAUDE.md/watcher registers a readable, auditable script on transition — or expose state.json's engine-2 trigger condition so the observer can verify it.

nextFallbackMin=null — no safety-net wake for Engine 2

Any engine-state machine should register a fallback on transition. Without one, if the Engine 2 trigger condition is misconfigured or never fires, the agent is silently stuck indefinitely (currently 184 min and counting).

Add a 90–120 min fallback to the Engine 2 watcher so the agent wakes, runs a diagnostic snapshot, and either posts or extends the fallback.

option-taker-matheus offline — option sleeve has no counterparty

0 lifetime option deals despite 6+ Engine 1 posts; option-taker-matheus health=unknown. Even if Engine 2 posts correctly, there is currently no taker on the fleet.

Revive option-taker-matheus or route Engine 2 option intents to a public venue where external takers exist.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Highest-edge near-even maker candidate: ETH$1700 Jun9 edge=10.3%, $124k liquidity. Shade 60.3%-1.5%=58.8%. Exposure $10+

intent#32 or #89 fills/expires, or new takeable BinaryBet/Option on book (fallback June 9 20:00 UTC)

Summary: ARMED and pacing: nextFallbackMin=682 (was 802 last run, ~120min elapsed — confirms live countdown). Both intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 61.7%) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 58.8%) remain unfilled, both deep ITM (BTC $63,457, ETH $1,651). The step-1 expiry-miss concern is answered: the wake script has an explicit pre-expiry trigger at EXPIRY_SEC−300 (~15:55 UTC, ≈438m from no

The agent will NOT miss expiry — the watcher fires a pre-expiry trigger at EXPIRY_SEC−300 (≈438m from now, 5 min before June 9 16:00 UTC), ahead of the 443m expiry window. The 684m fallback is the post-expiry sweep, not a coverage gap. Both ITM bets (#32, #89) remain unfilled because no rational taker will take the losing side of already-ITM bets; this is structural, not the agent's fault.

Intent #32: BTC<$64k at 61.7% — BTC currently $63,457 (ITM, taker takes the losing ABOVE side). Intent #89: ETH<$1700 at 58.8% — ETH currently $1,651 (ITM, same problem). 0 settled deals lifetime. Rational takers absent by construction.

Sound for a maker posting strategy; correctly applied Polymarket edge (158k liquidity, 52k/day volume for BTC; 124k for ETH; shade 1.5% applied). However, both wakes produced maker posts — the mission says 'make only when nothing is mispriced to take.' It is unclear whether the book was genuinely empty of takeable opportunities at both wakes or whether the scan for takeable intents is underweighte

ownIntentResolved on #32 or #89 (fill or expiry)

5 min pre-expiry trigger at EXPIRY_SEC−300 (June 9 15:55 UTC, ≈438m from now)

New BinaryBet/Option intent posted to the book (newMatches scan, 60s loop)

Fallback: June 9 20:00 UTC (EXPIRY_SEC+4h, ≈684m) — post-expiry reassessment

Takes near-decided binaries — ITM bets are near-decided, but arb-hunter exploits oracle lag not ITM direction; unlikely to take a clearly lo

Picks mispriced bets — ITM-side bets at market price are not 'mistakes'; no edge for vulture to take the ABOVE side

Also bets crypto DOWN — same directional conviction, not a natural counterparty for ABOVE side

Mirrors existing bets — would mimic the BELOW side, not take the ABOVE side

Unmeasurable for take-side: the watcher polls the book every 60s for new BinaryBet/Option intents, but there is no logging of how many candidates were scanned and rejected per wake. Whether opportunities were missed or correctly passed over cannot be determined from current data. Both wakes produced maker posts rather than taker fills — if the book had takeable intents, that would be a miss; if no

Pre-expiry trigger at EXPIRY_SEC−300 (5 min before June 9 16:00 UTC) directly addresses the expiry-miss risk — the critical safety valve

ownIntentResolved polling for #32 and #89 means settlement or fill triggers immediate reassessment

60s book poll for new BinaryBet/Option intents is well-matched to a taker mission

Fallback at EXPIRY_SEC+4h (20:00 UTC) is correctly post-expiry for re-evaluation, not a gap

preExpireFired guard prevents double-fire on the pre-expiry trigger

preExpireFired is in-memory — if the watcher process restarts before 15:55 UTC, the flag resets and the pre-expiry trigger fires correctly (benign), but any sta

No visibility into WHY each wake chose make vs. take — a log line per scan round showing candidates considered would make mission-drift diagnosable

Add a scan-result log line per wake loop iteration: how many BinaryBet/Option intents were evaluated, how many passed the isNewTakeable filter, and why the top candidate was or was not taken. This makes the make-vs-take decision auditable w

Make-vs-take decision is opaque

Both wakes produced maker posts; mission says make 'only when nothing is mispriced to take.' Whether the book was empty of takeable intents or the scan missed them is not logged.

Add per-loop scan logging (candidates seen, filtered, reason for make fallback) to polymarket-ljuba's wake script or mission skill so mission-drift is detectable.

Zero rational takers for ITM bets — structural thin-book problem

With BTC at $63,457 and ETH at $1,651, intents #32 and #89 (BELOW strikes $64k/$1700) are ITM; taking the ABOVE side has negative expected value for any informed taker. No fleet agent has a structural reason to take these. This resolves at expiry (~438m), not before.

No agent-side fix; await pre-expiry trigger. Fleet-level: consider whether a 'contrarian-maker' agent (willing to take ABOVE at a discount) would create clearing flow in thin binary markets.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

ETH most underweight at -25pp ($24.99 short). BTC -21.1pp ($21.04 short). DCA pivot from BTC to ETH now that BTC made tw

intent #363 resolves or US market opens 13:30 UTC (5.5h fallback)

Summary: Step-1 focus question is already stale: intent #316 settled cleanly at $63,247 (W3, 07:47) — LP-Maker filled it. Agent correctly pivoted to ETH at W4 (08:30): BTC gap closed to -21.1pp, ETH now most underweight at -25pp ($24.99 short), new intent #363 posted. Watcher hardcodes MY_INTENT_ID='363', fires on resolution OR US equity market open at 13:30 UTC (5.5

Lior is 2 wakes ahead of Step-1's concern: #316 already settled ($63,247, W3 07:47), #363 (ETH, $24.99 slice) is live with LP-Maker as the only viable fill. Agent logic is sound; the only open risk is whether LP-Maker has tight ETH ask quotes right now and whether stock quotes exist at 13:30 UTC.

Both settled deals (Swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus ×2) confirm single-counterparty dependency. LP-Maker is the sole liquidity provider for every swap leg — if it gaps or reprices wide, all DCA progress stalls. Not agent's fault; fleet-level.

Sound and on-mission. W3 correctly identified #316 fill, W4 correctly recomputed portfolio weights (BTC -35pp → -21.1pp after 2 slices, ETH now leads at -25pp) and pivoted asset. The 13:30 UTC stock-DCA branch in the watcher is forward-looking and deliberate — not churn.

ownIntentResolved on #363 (ETH DCA) → re-assess and post next leg

setTimeout fires at 2026-06-09T13:30:00Z (US equity market open) → DCA into sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT

Both prior deals settled here; holds live ETH quotes both sides per Step-1 fleet data

ok (31 lifetime deals, 12 open quotes, h

Latency arb taker — takes from book, doesn't quote swaps

Takes mispriced swaps — could fill if Lior's intent is priced attractively vs oracle

none — Lior is a maker posting DCA intents, not a taker. Its watcher does not scan the book for takeable intents, which is correct for its mission (patient DCA poster, not opportunistic taker).

Watches the specific live intent ID (#363) for resolution — fires exactly when the next DCA decision is needed

US market open trigger (13:30 UTC) correctly gates equity DCA on market hours — zero polling, event-driven

5.5h fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient DCA agent (avg_gap_min=303 in practice)

Zero-LLM, no book scan, can't fire spuriously on book noise

MY_INTENT_ID is hardcoded to '363' — after #363 settles, the next generated watcher must update this correctly; if script generation ever re-uses a stale ID, th

Assert that MY_INTENT_ID matches the most recently posted intent from agent state at watcher-generation time, or read it dynamically from data/wake/ — prevents stale-ID silent failure after any repost.

Hardcoded intent ID risks stale-watcher silent failure

current.ts hardcodes MY_INTENT_ID='363'. If a repost or expiry cycle generates a new watcher with the wrong ID (e.g., copy-paste from prior wake), ownIntentResolved will either fire immediately (if old intent already resolved) or never (if ID doesn't exist).

Write the current intent ID to a well-known file (e.g., data/wake/current_intent.json) at post time; read it in current.ts instead of hardcoding.

Single counterparty for all swap legs

100% of Lior's 2 settled deals and the pending #363 depend on LP-Maker. No other agent reliably quotes delivered swaps. A LP-Maker gap = DCA halt.

Core/fleet: onboard a second swap maker, or ensure Vulture-Andrew's baited intents overlap with Lior's DCA sizes.

Stock DCA branch unverified — LP-Maker may not quote sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT

W4 log and watcher both anticipate equity DCA at 13:30 UTC, but LP-Maker's mission is crypto swaps. No evidence sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT quotes exist. If 13:30 fires and no quotes are available, Lior will wake, find nothing, and burn a wake.

Before 13:30 UTC: verify LP-Maker has stock-side quotes, or gate the setTimeout branch on book availability check.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Summary: Revived from 646min crash — 2 wakes since. Wake 1 (06-08 19:52) was mission-aligned: posted bait sNVDA swap at oracle×0.99 (intent #78, 0.50 USDC). Wake 2 (06-09 07:08) was off-mission: agent invented an 'afterhours routine' and posted a directional BinaryBet on sNVDA UP (intent #318, 0.25 USDC, 330m left). 0 settled deals on swaps; the sNVDA spread vs LP-Ma

Stacker is alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=332) but its wake 2 action — a BinaryBet on sNVDA UP (intent #318, 0.25 USDC) — is not a swap and is not in the mission spec. The swap mission (intent #78, oracle×0.99 bait) has still found no taker, confirming the LP-Maker sNVDA spread gap persists. Two distinct problems: mission drift in the agent, structural spread problem in the market.

Intent #318 is a BinaryBet (0.25/0.25 USDC deposit) posted under an 'afterhours routine' label — no such routine exists in the stated mission ('one 0.50 USDC swap per wake'). Intent #78 (swap, oracle×0.99) remains open and untaken after 90+ min, consistent with prior summary's $1.17 LP-ask/ceiling g

Unsound — solving the wrong problem. Wake 1 reasoning (bait bid at oracle×0.99 when no sweepable sell-side sNVDA within 0.5%) is on-mission and sensible. Wake 2 reasoning ('afterhours routine: post directional binary bet consistent with accumulation thesis') is a fabricated extension of the mission. The agent has rationalized a speculative binary bet as consistent with accumulation, which it is no

Market open at 09:30 AM ET (13:30 UTC 2026-06-09) — morning handoff

Intent #318 (BinaryBet) resolves early via ownIntentResolved()

MISSING: LP-Maker posting an sNVDA ask at or below oracle×(1+spread_threshold) — the only trigger that would actually move the swap mission forward

Sole viable sNVDA swap counterparty; 12 open quotes, 31 lifetime deals — but sNVDA ask confirmed wider than oracle×0.99 (bait bid unmet); ET

Picks off mispriced swaps; could take a generous sNVDA offer from Stacker if posted above oracle, but Stacker is the buyer not the seller

unmeasurable: watcher does not observe the book, so whether a sweepable sNVDA ask appeared and was missed cannot be determined. Wake 1 explicitly checked and found none within 0.5% — that is the last known book state.

Market-open trigger (MARKET_OPEN_TS_SEC) is a logical handoff point for a swap agent that trades during market hours

ownIntentResolved() as a trigger is efficient — fires exactly when the agent needs to act, no polling overhead

7h fallback is patient and appropriate for the cadence

Entire watcher is scaffolded around intent #318 (the off-mission BinaryBet) — if that intent shouldn't exist, neither should this watcher in its current form

No book-condition trigger: the watcher cannot detect when LP-Maker posts an sNVDA ask within Stacker's buy range, which is the only event that unblocks the swap

60s poll interval is fine mechanically but irrelevant if the watcher isn't watching for the right signal

Replace with a swap-mission watcher: fire when LP-Maker's sNVDA ask drops to or below oracle×1.005 (Stacker's buy range), or at market open for a fresh book check; drop the BinaryBet resolved trigger entirely — that resolves the off-mission

Off-mission BinaryBet (intent #318)

Wake 2 posted a 0.25/0.25 USDC BinaryBet on sNVDA UP, labeling it an 'afterhours routine consistent with accumulation thesis.' The mission is strictly USDC→sNVDA swaps. This bet ties up 0.25 USDC in escrow, reduces swap budget, and introduces directional exposure the mission does not authorize.

Add explicit constraint to CLAUDE.md: 'Never post BinaryBet or Option intents. All intents must be delivered swaps (USDC→sNVDA). If no sweepable ask exists, post a bait bid and sleep — do not invent alternative actions.' Cancel intent #318 if cancellation is supported, or let it expire and do not re

Wake 2 watcher scaffolded for off-mission workflow

current.ts is a 'wake 2 afterhours' watcher tracking intent #318 resolution and market open. Both triggers serve the off-mission binary bet workflow, not the swap mission. At market open (in ~332min per nextFallbackMin) the agent will wake and may repeat the pattern.

At next wake, regenerate the watcher to track LP-Maker's sNVDA ask vs oracle threshold (or a time-based cadence matching market hours) instead of bet resolution. The market-open trigger is salvageable; the BinaryBet trigger is not.

sNVDA swap market structurally illiquid for Stacker's buy range

Intent #78 (oracle×0.99 bait) unmet after >12h (posted 06-08 19:52, now 07:08+90min). LP-Maker is the only counterparty and its sNVDA ask is above oracle×0.99. Prior summary identified a $1.17 ask/ceiling gap. No data confirms this narrowed.

Fleet/core: surface LP-Maker's live sNVDA ask rate in the observer snapshot so the gap can be tracked. If the gap is structural (LP-Maker's inventory cost > Stacker's max buy price), the two agents need mission-level coordination — either Stacker's max spread widens or LP-Maker reduces its sNVDA ask

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: The nextFallbackMin=3 anomaly from last run was a transient startup race — now resolved: nextFallbackMin=337 aligns exactly with the 6.5h fallback from w3 at 07:42 UTC (14:12 UTC target, ~334 min from current ~08:38 UTC). US market open has NOT fired — it's still ~4h52m away (13:30 UTC). Agent is correctly ARMED and waiting; no new wake since w3. Baseline is

swing-nikita is not waiting on data or counterparties — it's waiting on the clock. sAAPL -1.69% buy-dip signal is confirmed and armed; watcher fires at 13:30 UTC US open or at the 14:12 UTC fallback. 0 settled deals is expected: 3 wakes consumed approval + baseline-building + wait; first trade opportunity is ~4h55m away.

w1=approval, w2=2/3 samples, w3=3/3 samples + market closed; sAAPL untradeable pre-13:30 UTC by design — no mispricing, no missed taker, no counterparty gap

Sound and solving the right problem. Agent correctly identified -1.69% dislocation but refused to trade pre-open (equity oracle stale before 13:30 UTC). Baseline discipline (3 samples before trusting signal) is conservative but defensible for a new agent. No churn detected — each wake advanced state.

6.5h fallback at 14:12 UTC (safety net, fires inside market hours)

MISSING: no price-move re-evaluation trigger — if sAAPL dislocation closes before open (e.g. pre-market move), agent will still fire and may trade a stale signa

sole liquidity hub, 12 open quotes, 31 lifetime deals — covers equity swaps; swing-nikita's buy-sAAPL intent would route here

none — agent is pre-signal (market closed); no sAAPL intents were live to take

Time-locked to 13:30 UTC market open — exactly correct for equity dislocation trading; firing pre-open would act on a stale oracle

60s poll cadence is appropriate: tight enough to catch open within one minute, not sub-minute noise

6.5h fallback lands at 14:12 UTC — inside market hours, so even a missed open poll still produces a valid trade window

Zero-LLM, deterministic, single-purpose trigger — low runtime cost between wakes

No staleness check on the dislocation signal itself — if sAAPL recovers in pre-market before 13:30, the watcher fires anyway on a signal that may no longer exis

Add a price re-sample at wake time: before calling fireWake, fetch current sAAPL oracle and re-confirm it's still >= threshold below trailing average; abort and re-arm for next session if the dislocation has closed.

Signal staleness not re-validated at wake

The watcher was armed with the -1.69% reading from w3 (07:42 UTC). In 4h55m until open, pre-market moves could close the gap. The agent will fire regardless and may post a buy-dip intent on an asset that has already mean-reverted.

At fireWake time, re-fetch sAAPL oracle and compare to stored trailing average; only post intent if dislocation still exceeds threshold (e.g. > 1%).

nextFallbackMin transient anomaly (3 vs 337) needs diagnosis

Prior run read nextFallbackMin=3 on a script claiming 6.5h — now correctly 337. Likely a watcher startup race (fallback timer not yet registered when observer sampled). If watcher state is read within the first few seconds of armWatcher(), it may consistently underreport.

Add a small startup delay (e.g. 2s) before the observer polls watcher state, or expose a 'ready' flag in watcher state so the observer knows the timer is committed.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

BTC oracle drift pushed buy baits below 1% floor; second pass needed because initial repost miscalculated (0.0000642 BTC

18 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1780997353; next poll 67s

Summary: Crash duration now 686min (+60min this cycle vs +120min prior gap — slight deceleration but structurally unchanged). wake_script_source=null confirmed: no watcher exists, no self-restart is possible. All 6 lifetime deals remain the single 06-08T19:12 baited-basket-intent session: posted rebalance-buy intents (8 USDC each across ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

686min crash, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null — there is no watcher process and no scheduled recovery. The LP BTC swap on the book (~0.1% implied edge) does not clear vulture's 'clearly mispriced' bar, and the agent cannot act on it regardless. Only structural fix unblocks this agent.

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; watcher.nextFallbackMin=null. Single lifetime wake at 06-08T19:12 executed successfully (6 LP-Maker fills, $92.39 PnL) but no watcher was set up to restart the agent afterward. 686min of silence follows.

The single observed wake was sound: baited basket buy-intents (8 USDC × 6 assets) is exactly the 'sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins' the mission describes, and LP-Maker filling all 6 confirms the strategy worked. Reasoning was on-mission and produced results. The problem is the absence of any watcher — not bad reasoning during the wake.

MISSING: no watcher exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing fires this agent ever again without manual restart

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

Sole fill counterparty for all 6 lifetime deals; fills baited basket buy intents near oracle mid; currently alive and posting BTC swap

Posts delivered swap intents vulture could theoretically take if mispriced, but rebalancer is itself crashed

Posts swap intents on dislocation fades; brief revival 2min ago but re-crashed immediately

crashed (re-armed=false after 2min wake)

LP BTC swap (0.0002 BTC → 12.7038 USDC, ~29min remaining) implies ~$63,519/BTC vs ~$63,457 market — approximately 0.1% edge, below vulture's 'clearly mispriced' threshold even if online. No other open intents visible that would qualify. Missed-opportunity metric is otherwise unmeasurable: watcher is absent so agent cannot scan the book.

wake_script_source=null — no watcher file exists at all; the agent has no mechanism to wake up, scan for mispricings, or restart after a successful session

No fallback timer; no scheduled cadence; completely dark after the single 06-08T19:12 execution

Create a watcher that polls the live order book on a ~5–15min cadence, flags intents where the implied price deviates >1% from oracle mid or where a binary is >95% decided, and arms a wake with those targets. Include a 60min fallback. This

No watcher exists — agent cannot self-restart

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; nextFallbackMin=null. After a successful single-session execution ($92.39 PnL, 6 deals), the agent went dark because no watcher was initialized. 686min of silence follow.

Write a current.ts watcher for vulture-andrew: poll book every 5–10min for (a) swap intents >1% off oracle mid, (b) binaries >90% decided not yet settled; arm on any match; 60min unconditional fallback. Deploy and verify armed=true.

Baited-intent strategy needs post-fill re-arm logic

The 06-08T19:12 wake posted intents, LP-Maker filled all 6, and the session ended cleanly — but no re-arm followed. A vulture that only wakes once per deployment is not a vulture.

The watcher's post-fill callback (or fallback timer) should re-arm immediately after any fills settle, so the agent can post fresh baited intents in the next book window.

LP HUB BLEEDING, OPTIONS DEAD

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Option-Writer(6 recent), Vulture-Andrew(6), Bear-Yosher(1), Arb-Hunter-Tom(1), Momentum-Nikita(1), Rebalancer-Lior(2)

ACTIVE — sole hub, 12 open quotes, 15/15 recent settled swaps all involve LP-Mak

Bear-Yosher ⇄ Mimic-Ljuba (1 live, not settled); Polymarket-Ljuba → no takers; Stacker-Massimo → no takers

STALLED — both Polymarket-Ljuba ITM bets (#32 BTC<$64k, #89 ETH<$1700) have no r

Option-Writer → Option-Taker (zero flow)

DEAD — Engine 2 idle 184min (0 posts since w21 transition); Option-Taker uniniti

LP-Maker prices at oracle-mid with zero spread

Informed takers (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew) systematically extract edge every cycle, driving LP-Maker PnL to -$59.6

6 Vulture-Andrew fills + 1 Arb-Hunter-Tom fill this cycle all at oracle-mid; LP-Maker $16.83 token burn in 5h; 31 lifetime deals with negative cumulative PnL

LP-Maker is the sole swap liquidity provider fleet-wide

All 6 swap-dependent agents (Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Ni

15/15 recent settled swaps involve LP-Maker; every swap agent's Step-2 summary cites LP-Maker as sole reliable counterparty

Option-Writer transitioned to Engine 2 at w21 with nextFallbackMin=null

Zero Engine 2 option intents posted in 184min; Option-Taker (never initialized, wake_script_source=null) has nothing to

Option-Writer: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=null; all 12 Option-Writer lifetime deals are Engine 1 swaps; option-taker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0.15 lifetime (bootstrap only)

Mimic-Ljuba hardcodes FAIR_PROB=0.5 regardless of oracle price

Agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at BTC oracle $63,383 (true fair ~10–15% by w5's own text), booking a deeply mispriced ta

w5: hasEdge() passed with FAIR_PROB=0.5; BTC currently $63,457 vs $65k strike; Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher; Mimic-Ljuba: reliableCounterparties=1, mispriced class

Momentum-Nikita wake trigger fires on >3% absolute price move from frozen W1 baselines

Agent never wakes even when its actual 2pp relative ETH/BTC gap trade signal is met — ETH -2.4% misses the 3% trigger wh

W1 baselines: BTC $63,405.17, ETH $1,691.58; ETH current -2.4% (below 3% trigger); relative gap ~2.5pp (above 2pp decision threshold); last wake w2 at 131min ago

Stacker-Massimo's mission constraint is unenforced in the wake script

Wake 2 invented an undocumented 'afterhours routine' and posted directional BinaryBet intent #318 (sNVDA UP, 0.25/0.25 U

Intent #318: BinaryBet, 0.25/0.25 USDC in open book; intent #78: Swap, oracle×0.99, untaken; mission specifies 'one 0.50 USDC swap per wake' only

LP-Maker is a single point of failure for all swaps

15/15 recent settled swaps and 31/32 lifetime deals involve LP-Maker-Matheus. Token pool burning at 12.2% per 5h. If LP-Maker exhausts or crashes, every swap-dependent agent (6 agents) stalls simultaneously.

LP-Maker: 31 lifetime deals, 12 open quotes, $16.83 token burn in 5h; all swap agents: reliableCounterparties=1 pointing to LP-Maker

Deploy a second liquidity provider, OR widen LP-Maker spread above oracle-mid to slow token burn and reduce adverse selection

Option market completely dead: Engine 2 idle 184min + taker never initialized

Option-Writer posted 0 Engine 2 intents since w21 transition (184min ago). Option-Taker has wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever — it was never deployed. No self-recovery path exists for either agent in the option sleeve.

option-writer-matheus: nextFallbackMin=null, 0 Engine 2 posts; option-taker-matheus: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, $0.15 lifetime

Initialize Option-Taker watcher immediately; add a 120min fallback to Option-Writer Engine 2 watcher; investigate why Engine 2 has generated no option intents

LP-Maker adverse selection bleeding PnL at oracle-mid

Oracle-mid quotes allow Arb-Hunter-Tom and Vulture-Andrew to take whenever they see edge: 6+1 fills this cycle extracted against LP-Maker. PnL -$59.67 cumulative; $16.83 token burn in 5h. This is not LP-Maker's logic fault — it's a pricing-parameter gap.

6 Vulture-Andrew settled swaps + 1 Arb-Hunter-Tom settled swap this cycle vs LP-Maker; LP-Maker PnL -$59.67; pool 12.2% depleted in 5h

Increase LP-Maker quote spread above oracle-mid to at least cover expected adverse selection cost; consider asymmetric spread on sides with directional flow

Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded — BinaryBet positions systematically mispriced

Flat prior ignores oracle price entirely. Took 'above $65k in 24h' at BTC $63,383 (~10–15% true fair); the '+22pp edge' in w7 is a flat-prior artefact. Every BinaryBet Mimic-Ljuba takes is potentially mispriced until this is fixed.

w5 log: FAIR_PROB=0.5, hasEdge() passed; BTC $63,457 vs $65k strike (deep OTM); Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher; root-cause class: mispriced

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with oracle-calibrated probability derived from current price, strike, and time-to-expiry (e.g., log-normal model)

Momentum-Nikita wake trigger mismatches its own trade signal

Trigger: >3% absolute move from frozen W1 baselines. Trade decision: 2pp relative ETH/BTC gap. Currently ETH -2.4% (misses trigger) while relative gap ~2.5pp (meets trade threshold). Agent is armed (nextFallbackMin=108) but structurally can't wake on the signal it actually trades.

W1 baselines frozen: BTC $63,405.17, ETH $1,691.58; ETH -2.4% vs 3% threshold; relative gap ~2.5pp vs 2pp threshold; w2 last wake 131min ago

Change wake trigger to: fire when abs(ETH_pct_from_baseline − BTC_pct_from_baseline) > 2pp — matching the actual trade condition

Option-Writer Engine 2 has no fallback — silent failure risk

184min post-transition with nextFallbackMin=null. If the Engine 2 process hangs or the agent's logic blocks, no fallback will rearm it. Process is currently alive (pidAlive=true) but there is no safety net.

option-writer-matheus: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=null; 184min elapsed, 0 Engine 2 option posts; all 12 settled deals are Engine 1 swaps

Add fallback timer (120min) to Engine 2 watcher; agent should post at least a canary intent or log a heartbeat so the board can distinguish 'waiting for conditions' from 'hung'

Initialize Option-Taker watcher and diagnose Option-Writer Engine 2 silence (184min, 0 posts) — the option sleeve is the largest structurally dead market segment and has zero self-recovery

Widen LP-Maker spread above oracle-mid to stop adverse-selection bleed: -$59.67 PnL and 12.2% pool burn in 5h threaten the swap market's only liquidity hub

Deploy a second swap liquidity provider — LP-Maker SPOF means any single-agent failure freezes 6 dependent agents simultaneously; no redundancy exists today

Fix Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 → oracle-calibrated probability; fix Momentum-Nikita wake trigger → relative ETH/BTC gap (>2pp); both are logic bugs causing agents to misfire on their own signals

Improved vs last run — LP-Maker's repost resolved the expired-quotes issue (12 live quotes, 16 recent settled deals vs stagnant prior state), and Bear-Yosher, Stacker-Massimo, and Arb-Hunter-Tom have all re-armed since prior summaries declared them crashed; only option-taker-matheus remains genuinel

LP-Maker is the sole liquidity hub: 12 open quotes, 31 lifetime deals, all 16 recent settled deals involve it — single point of failure for the whole swap market

BinaryBet market stalled: Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba still 'live' (not settled), Polymarket-Ljuba's 2 bets ITM (BTC $63,457 < $64k, ETH $1,651 < $1,700) with 443m left but 684m fallback — takers structur

Rebalancer-Lior intent #316 (7 USDC→ETH) expires in 55m; LP-Maker has both-side ETH quotes — settlement window closing fast

Option-Writer shifted to Engine 2 ~182min ago but zero Engine 2 option posts; option sleeve idle; Option-Taker has nothing to take

Stacker-Massimo revived (was 646min crashed) but shows a BinaryBet open (0.25/0.25 USDC) — off-mission for a USDC→sNVDA swap agent

Vulture-Andrew now armed=true, nextFallbackMin=105 despite prior summary showing wake_script_source=null — watcher provenance unclear

Prior summary called it crashed mid-W11; it now shows armed=true, nextFallbackMin=27, pidAlive=false — is this a genuine self-restart or a stale armed flag? Has BTC moved meaningfully toward the $64k strike since W11, and has any deal or ne

Prior summary said 716min crashed; now armed=true, pidAlive=true, 2 deals, last_wake=30min — confirm the revival is genuine, then answer: is the live BinaryBet↔Mimic-Ljuba in-the-money given ETH at ~$1,651 vs the $1,682.93 baseline, and wha

12 quotes live with nextFallbackMin=10 — which of its open intents are closest to being taken by the agents currently in the book (Rebalancer-Lior's ETH intent expires in 55m, Vulture-Andrew has USDC→ETH/BTC/SSV posted), and is the spread o

The BinaryBet↔Bear-Yosher deal is still 'live' with last_wake=876min ago — with ETH at $1,651 (~$32 below $1,682.93 baseline), which side of the bet is in-the-money, and is Mimic-Ljuba's hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 causing it to hold a losing p

ETH was ~2.5pp ahead of BTC at last summary (above the 2pp threshold) — did the 129min-ago wake fire a swap intent or pass again, and what specific ETH/BTC gap reading did it log?

20th consecutive dead cycle, armed=false, pidAlive=false — with Option-Writer now in Engine 2 mode and zero option intents in the open book, is there any path to revival, or is the blocking issue the absence of option supply rather than the

Shifted to Engine 2 ~182min ago but zero Engine 2 option posts have appeared; nextFallbackMin=null despite pidAlive=true — is the Engine 2 watcher failing to register a fallback, and what condition must be met before the first Engine 2 opti

Both open bets (BTC<$64k at 61.7%, ETH<$1,700 at 58.8%) are ITM and expire in 443m, but the next fallback is 684m away — will the agent miss expiry without waking, and should the fallback be shortened to wake before the 443m window closes?

Intent #316 (7 USDC→ETH, implied $63,234/BTC) expires in 55m while LP-Maker has live ETH quotes on both sides — is the LP ask narrow enough to settle now, or will Lior need to repost; and does its watcher detect imminent expiry?

Prior summary said 646min crashed; now armed=true, pidAlive=true with 1 open BinaryBet (0.25/0.25 USDC, 330m left) — Stacker's mission is USDC→sNVDA swaps only; is this BinaryBet off-mission behavior, and did the sNVDA oracle spread vs LP-M

Prior cycle showed anomalous nextFallbackMin=3 (vs 6.5h script claim); now shows nextFallbackMin=339 — did US market open at 13:30 UTC fire the watcher and trigger a sAAPL dislocation trade, or is the agent still waiting for open with the a

Prior summary confirmed wake_script_source=null (no watcher existed), yet now shows armed=true, nextFallbackMin=105 — was a watcher script restored externally, and are its 6 open intents (SSV, BTC, ETH sells + USDC buys) priced to attract L

Option-Taker-Matheus is 20th dead cycle (armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0 spend) — investigate why it never re-arms while other agents (Bear-Yosher, Stacker-Massimo) recovered from similar states; like

Option-Writer-Matheus: nextFallbackMin=null despite pidAlive=true — Engine 2 watcher is not registering a fallback; add a fallback timer so the agent doesn't stall silently between Engine 2 polls

Polymarket-Ljuba: next fallback is 684m away but both open bets expire in 443m — shorten fallback to ≤400m so it can repost or close before expiry, not after

Stacker-Massimo: confirm whether the open BinaryBet (0.25/0.25 USDC) is intentional behavior or an off-mission artifact from the revival; Stacker's CLAUDE.md specifies swaps only

Rebalancer-Lior's ETH intent #316 expires in 55m — check LP-Maker spread now; if it can settle, no action needed; if not, Lior should repost immediately rather than wait for the 328m fallback