Arb-Hunter-Tom

SSV oracle $2.24 lagging CEX $2.252; poster priced at $2.248 — below CEX, above oracle. Clear latency-arb buy opportunit

new mSSV intent >1528 ≥10bps OR binary bet ≤30min — 30-min fallback

Summary: Prior summary: swap-pivot confirmed at deals 138–139 (both LP-Maker-Matheus); binary still frozen. Since then: +3 new fills — deals #142 (w214, SSV buy +13bps, +$0.003), #143 (w215, SSV buy +41bps, +$0.004), #145 (w216, SSV sell +19bps, +$0.004) — all SSV oracle-lag plays, all vs LP-Maker-Matheus. Swap-pivot is the active and only surface; binary remains at

+3 fills since last summary (deals #142/#143/#145), all SSV swaps vs LP-Maker-Matheus, cumulatively +$0.011 edge. Agent is mechanically sound but economically inverted: $9.69 lifetime token spend on 215 wakes has produced only $0.68 realized PnL — the oracle-lag edge (~$0.003–$0.04/fill) is an order of magnitude below the per-wake LLM cost.

Binary surface: 0 bets across all recent wakes (w209–w216). Swap fills exclusively via SSV oracle-lag vs LP-Maker-Matheus. Vulture-Andrew's 8 live intents do not appear in settled_deals_detail — either non-SSV or sub-threshold edge. Single reliable counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus) posting SSV at stal

Sound and on-mission: agent correctly identifies oracle lag (49bps w214, 76bps w215, 19bps w216), enforces ≥10bps floor, executes within risk caps. HIGH_WATER mechanism cleanly avoids re-processing seen intents. However, it is solving the right micro-problem (find edge, take edge) while the macro-problem (token cost destroys economics) goes unaddressed — disciplined loop, wrong altitude.

New mSSV intent ID > HIGH_WATER (1528) with ≥10bps CEX edge (buy or sell side)

New binary bet matching BINARY_BET_HASHES with ≤30min to expiry

MISSING: poster funded/allowance pre-check before fireWake — w213 reverted ERC20InsufficientBalance on #1472 (2nd occurrence)

Primary and only active counterparty — 9 of last 10 settled deals; posts SSV at stale oracle, creating the exact oracle-lag edge arb-hunter-

1 confirmed fill (swap); DCA poster creates periodic stale-oracle swaps arb-hunter-tom can snipe

8 live intents rebuilt post-restart but none appear in arb-hunter-tom's settled_deals_detail — intents may be non-SSV or edge below 10bps fl

Intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.11 SSV) open 422+ min — arb-hunter-tom is a taker, not a maker, so can't fill this directly; but if momentum-niki

w213 attempted #1472 (SSV edge confirmed) but reverted ERC20InsufficientBalance — poster unfunded. This is a recoverable miss (same wake, no other edge found). No other documented misses; w209/w211/w212/w213 correctly identified 0 fundable edges ≥10bps. Vulture-Andrew's 8 live intents unassessed — watcher would need to see their template/asset to evaluate.

HIGH_WATER (1528, updated each wake) prevents re-scanning old intents — fires only on genuinely new opportunities

Checks both buy-edge and sell-edge for SSV — caught w216 sell-edge correctly

30s CEX price cache prevents Binance rate-limit on rapid polls

Binary bet hash filter + woken-bet persistence avoids duplicate wakes on same bet

30-min fallback ensures cadence even in dead markets; zero-LLM watcher

No poster balance/allowance pre-check before fireWake — caused w213 ERC20InsufficientBalance revert (2nd occurrence, pattern confirmed)

Only watches SSV; ETH/BTC swap edges (Coinbase feed available) not monitored in watcher — relies on fallback wake to catch those

Before calling fireWake on an SSV swap intent, fetch the poster's token balance and check it covers the intent amount — one extra RPC call that would have prevented the w213 revert and avoids burning a $1.35 wake on a doomed fill.

Unfunded poster revert (recurring)

w213 attempted #1472, reverted ERC20InsufficientBalance — flagged as 2nd occurrence. Watcher fires without verifying poster has the balance to settle.

Add balanceOf(poster, token) ≥ intent.amount check inside the watcher's SSV edge scan before calling fireWake; skip and log if underfunded.

Token cost destroys economics

$9.69 lifetime tokens across 215 wakes vs $0.68 realized PnL (7¢ on the dollar). Last wake alone cost $1.35 vs $0.004 edge captured. At 90.7% no-fill rate (195/215 repeat wakes), each fill must average >$0.60 edge to break even — current fills average $0.04. This is the dominant problem.

Reduce LLM reasoning depth on no-edge wakes (fast-path exit before full scan), or raise the edge floor from 10bps to ~50bps to select only fills large enough to cover token overhead. The current 10bps floor is rational for a zero-cost taker but not for a $1.35/wake LLM agent.

Binary surface structurally frozen

Bear-Yosher

Exactly-one-resting invariant violated (836 expired). Posted 869 to maintain bear anchor. No BinaryBets available to tak

intent 869 fill/expiry OR new BinaryBet OR ETH/BTC +1.5% OR deal 75 near-expiry OR 4h

Summary: Still hard-crashed: armed=false, pidAlive=false, last_wake_min_ago=1473 (+59 min vs prior 1412). Settled_deals unchanged at 17 — no new settlements since w41 (Jun 10 11:17 UTC). Deal #75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 (Jun 11 00:58 UTC) is now ~11h past with no settlement recorded; USDC locked in that deal remains unreleased. Intent 869 (posted at w41) has open_

Bear-yosher has been dead for 1473 min (~24.5h) with zero token spend since w41. Deal #75 BinaryBet betExpiry vs Mimic-Ljuba passed ~11h ago (Jun 11 00:58 UTC) with no settlement call; USDC is locked on-chain until either party calls it. Intent 869 expired unfilled during the crash (open_intents=0, settled_deals still 17). Operator restart is the only recovery path — no self-resurrection is possible.

watcher.armed=false + pidAlive=false confirmed since w41; 4h fallback (~15:17 UTC Jun 10) never fired; deal-75 near-expiry trigger (~00:53 UTC Jun 11) never fired; settled_deals static at 17; open_intents=0 with no deal increment = intent 869 expired unfilled

Last live reasoning (w41) was sound — identified exactly-one-resting invariant violation, posted anchor 869, and armed a well-structured watcher covering all mission-relevant triggers. Problem is pure process death post-w41; no reasoning quality issue, no wrong-problem loop.

Intent 869 fill/expiry (readIntent poll)

New BinaryBet on book (readOpenIntents diff vs seenBinaryIds set)

Deal 75 near-expiry (Date.now() >= DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS ≈ 00:53 UTC Jun 11)

Counterparty on deals including deal 75 (BinaryBet); betExpiry passed so Mimic-Ljuba can call settlement independently without bear-yosher b

Takes near-decided binary bets below strikes; could take future bear anchors if bear-yosher restarts and BTC stays below strike

Deal 75 settlement call missed (~11h since betExpiry, USDC locked); intent 869 anchor expired unfilled during crash (settled_deals=17, open_intents=0 confirms no fill); any new BinaryBet opportunities on book since w41 unseen — watcher blind to book for ~24.5h

Covers all five mission-relevant triggers: anchor fill/expiry, new taker opportunity (BinaryBet), adverse risk (ETH/BTC +1.5%), settlement deadline (deal 75), a

deal-75 fire-5-min-early logic (epoch−300s) is correct for settlement preparation window

BinaryBet template hash filter (0x85aeb4...) prevents false fires on non-binary intents

seenBinaryIds set-diff approach correctly detects net-new bets without re-firing on stale book

Process died after w41 arm — script logic is correct but never executed; failure mode is silent process death, not script error

DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS hardcoded to Jun 11 00:58 UTC epoch — future rewrites must derive from live deal data or stale constant silently misses the window

No self-restart: once the process dies, nothing in the script can recover it; the 4h fallback at ~15:17 UTC Jun 10 and deal-75 trigger at ~00:53 UTC Jun 11 both

Core SDK should persist armWatcher registration to disk and provide a lightweight supervisor that relaunches the watcher script if PID dies before fallback fires — this is the only mechanism that would have caught the silent crash and fired

Hard crash — operator restart required

armed=false, pidAlive=false since w41 (Jun 10 11:17 UTC); 1473 min dark; no self-recovery; realized PnL -$2.36, lifetime token cost $18.35 — low restart cost

Operator restart: re-run bear-yosher wake to (1) call settlement on deal 75, (2) assess intent 869 expired status, (3) verify BTC/ETH conviction still holds (BTC ~$61k, was 3.49–3.78% below $63,500 strike at crash time), (4) re-arm watcher

Deal #75 betExpiry unresolved — USDC locked ~11h

betExpiry epoch 1781139624 (Jun 11 00:58 UTC) passed with no settlement call from either party; settled_deals still 17 (not incremented); USDC stake locked on-chain

On restart, agent calls settlement for deal 75 immediately; alternatively Mimic-Ljuba (counterparty, health ok) can initiate settlement independently right now without waiting for bear-yosher restart

Index-Maker

Summary: 28th consecutive null cycle — zero change from prior run. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No provisioning signal this cycle. IndexBasket market segment remains fully offline. Not a crash; never initialized. The Step-1 focus question answer: still 0 wakes / null addres

index-maker has never run a single wake across its entire lifetime (0 tokens, 0 wakes, null address). This is a provisioning failure, not a runtime failure. No IndexBasket intents have ever been posted, leaving index-taker equally stranded and the entire IndexBasket market segment permanently offline.

28 consecutive null cycles: tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null. No deal IDs, no address, no on-chain footprint of any kind.

Unmeasurable — no reasoning has ever been produced. Wake script is null; no LLM calls have ever fired. Cannot evaluate on-mission quality when the agent has never initialized.

MISSING: no watcher deployed — wake_script_source=null means no trigger file exists to compile or arm

index-taker's sole mission is to take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — directly depends on index-maker's output

unmeasurable: agent has never posted an intent; no book presence, no counterparty flow to measure against

wake_script_source is null — no script exists to evaluate

watcher never armed — no process has ever been spawned

no fallback timer — agent cannot self-recover even if deployment were attempted

Provision the agent: assign a wallet address and deploy a current.ts watcher that posts one LONG IndexBasket intent (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) per wake on a ~30-60 min cadence with a fallback timer.

Agent never provisioned — no address, no watcher, no lifetime activity

28 consecutive null cycles. Every field that requires initialization (address, wake_script_source, watcher pid) remains null. This blocks the entire IndexBasket market: index-taker cannot take what index-maker never posts.

Assign a wallet, write and deploy current.ts for index-maker, then verify watcher arms and fires at least one wake producing a LONG IndexBasket intent on-chain.

IndexBasket market segment fully offline — both maker and taker uninitialized

index-maker (0 wakes) and index-taker (also health=unknown, same null pattern) have never interacted. The IndexBasket template has 0 settled deals fleet-wide and 0 open intents. This is the one market segment with zero liquidity and zero flow.

Prioritize index-maker provisioning first; index-taker initialization is blocked until there are live IndexBasket intents to audit and take.

Index-Taker

Summary: 28th consecutive null cycle — identical to prior run: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No provisioning signal. Index-maker remains the binding dependency and is also undeployed (health=unknown). The IndexBasket market segment has zero active participants on either side; LP-Maker-Matheus'

Index-taker has never run a single wake ($0 lifetime, 0 wakes). The IndexBasket market is structurally frozen: index-maker has posted 0 LONG IndexBasket intents (also undeployed), so even a live index-taker would have nothing to audit or take. LP-Maker-Matheus's 112-deal swap book is the only active segment, but it is a different market — index-taker cannot participate in it by mission design.

Both sides of the IndexBasket market are undeployed: index-maker (health=unknown, 0 deals) has posted no LONG IndexBasket intents; index-taker (health=unknown, 0 deals, wake_script_source=null) has no watcher. No IndexBasket intent exists on the book for index-taker to audit or cross.

N/A — agent has never executed. No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no watcher — wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false

The only agent that posts LONG IndexBasket intents — the sole supply index-taker can take the SHORT side of.

Operates in the swap segment (112 deals, all token swaps). Does not post IndexBasket intents. Index-taker cannot participate in LP-Maker-Mat

active — 112 deals, health=ok, but irrel

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (wake_script_source=null). Structurally 0 in any case — index-maker has posted no LONG IndexBasket intents, so no takeable intents have existed on the book this cycle.

wake_script_source is null — agent is completely unprovisioned, no watcher exists at all

Provision the agent: deploy wake_script that polls the book for LONG IndexBasket intents, triggers an audit via audit-custom-deal skill, and crosses only on ACCEPT verdict. But this is premature until index-maker is deployed first.

Agent unprovisioned — no watcher, never run

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Agent has never executed a single cycle.

Deploy index-taker with a watcher that polls for LONG IndexBasket intents and runs the audit-custom-deal skill before crossing. Block on index-maker deployment first.

IndexBasket market has zero active participants — both maker and taker sides undeployed

Index-maker (health=unknown) and index-taker (health=unknown) are both offline. The entire IndexBasket segment is frozen. LP-Maker-Matheus's swap book (112 deals, active) is the only live market segment, but it is orthogonal to IndexBasket — it cannot serve as a substitute.

Deploy index-maker first to establish LONG IndexBasket intent supply, then deploy index-taker. Both must be live simultaneously for any IndexBasket deal to settle.

LP-Maker-Matheus

SSV ask #1540 filled at +50.5bps while sleeping. Wallet 0.276835 SSV backs 0.25 SSV ask at +35bps base (no volTerm: orac

cluster + BTC ask #1520 renewal 12:03 UTC | ETH $1668 | BTC $63250 | SSV $2.237/$2.245 | 60min fallback

Summary: Fleet hub holding strong. Deals surged 96→112 (+16 this cycle) driven by Arb-Hunter-Tom (5 fills), Momentum-Nikita (5), 0xBd6a…9863 external wallet (4), Stacker-Massimo (2) — these are the freshest 16 in the 40-deal window. Vulture-Andrew (6) and Rebalancer-Lior (4) appear in the earlier portion of the window (pre-cycle). Concurrent wake collisions remain th

+16 deals this cycle (Arb-Hunter-Tom 5, Momentum-Nikita 5, 0xBd6a 4, Stacker-Massimo 2). Book is 10/12: sNVDA ask missing (thin $1.09 inventory), duplicate SSV bid self-corrected in w125. Oracle guards firing correctly; concurrent wake collision is the primary operational risk producing redundant cancel/repost overhead each cycle.

sNVDA ask leg absent — $1.09 inventory below minimum lot (w125 explicit); concurrent wake collisions on BTC guard at $63,050 (w123 dual-fire, one no-log error) and duplicate SSV bid #1539=#1541 (w125 cleaned). Not a counterparty or pricing problem — 5 reliable counterparties active and guards calibr

Sound and on-mission. Each wake addresses a specific quantified issue: guard levels cite exact prices, duplicate detection cites intent IDs, inventory gaps cite dollar amounts. No churn — agent self-corrects concurrent collision artifacts. The only weak spot is it solves the symptom (cleanup the duplicate) rather than the cause (prevent concurrent fires).

ETH price > $1,665 — ask #1538 near inversion

BTC price > $63,200 — ask #1520 near inversion

SSV price > $2.248 — ask #1540 near inversion

SSV price < $2.237 — bid #1541 near inversion

BTC ask #1520 pre-expiry timer fires ~12:16 UTC

New fillable intent posted by any non-self counterparty

5 fills in the freshest +16 cycle; latency arb against LP oracle quotes is its primary loop

5 fills this cycle; momentum swap execution routes through LP mid

6 fills in prior-cycle window; restarted with 8 live intents, deal count at 39 (+1 only — gas gate may still throttle)

4 fills in prior-cycle window; patient DCA slices route through LP mid

2 fills this cycle; takes resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within 1% oracle — currently blocked on sNVDA leg

2 fills in window; low frequency, fade-dislocation swaps

Momentum-Nikita intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.11 SSV at implied $2.25/SSV, open 422+ min) is a candidate fill if LP has a live SSV ask ≤ $2.25. Step-1 flags no live SSV ask on book — if oracle SSV is currently near or below the $2.248 guard threshold and the last SSV ask was cancelled without reposting (e.g. after an inversion cancel), #1342 is unfillable despite LP having the inventory and mission t

Per-asset oracle guards (ETH $1,665 / BTC $63,200 / SSV $2.237–$2.248) prevent inversion before next scheduled wake

Pre-expiry timer for BTC ask #1520 (~12:16 UTC) ensures renewal before expiry — time-critical, correctly handled

Fillable intent watch fires on any new taker flow, giving LP first-mover fill opportunity

60-min fallback ensures no market move is missed if all guards stay quiet

Zero-LLM in hot path; fast, deterministic

No concurrent-execution guard: rapid price crossing causes two watcher fires before state.json updates — confirmed in w123 (dual BTC-guard fire) and w125 (dupli

Add a startup file-lock check (read current.pid, verify the PID is dead before proceeding) so a second concurrent fire exits immediately rather than racing through the same intent cancel/repost sequence — this single change eliminates the w

sNVDA ask structurally absent: $1.09 inventory below minimum lot with no recovery path

w125 explicitly: 'sNVDA ask missing — thin $1.09 inventory'. Stacker-Massimo (active counterparty, 2 fills this cycle) specifically targets sNVDA/sAAPL asks. This leg is permanently dead until inventory is manually topped up.

Add sNVDA inventory floor check to agent wake logic: if sNVDA inventory < $5 USDC-equivalent, route a small USDC→sNVDA swap (e.g. $10 lot) before posting the book — restores the ask leg automatically.

SSV ask may be absent post-cancel: leaving Momentum-Nikita #1342 ($2.25/SSV) unfillable for 422+ min

After an SSV ask inversion cancel, if oracle SSV remains below the $2.248 repost threshold, no new SSV ask is posted. Momentum intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.11 SSV at $2.25, open 422+ min) cannot fill in this state despite LP having the inventory and mission to fill it.

After cancelling an inverted SSV ask, repost at a wider spread (e.g. oracle + 30bps instead of + 15bps) rather than waiting for oracle recovery — captures standing taker flow at slightly worse margin rather than leaving the book leg empty.

Mimic-Ljuba

Summary: Binary drought extends through w78 (was w77 last run); +1 wake since prior summary, all hold. Vulture-Andrew's 8 live intents — confirmed as SSV, sNVDA, sAAPL, sMSFT swaps — contain zero BinaryBets, so no new mimic supply materialized despite Vulture restart. Bear-Yosher still crashed at 1471 min (+59 min). Agent remains correctly idle at $63.62 USDC, zero e

12+ consecutive hold wakes with no binary supply on the book. Vulture-Andrew's restart produced 8 swap intents, not BinaryBets — zero change in mimic-eligible flow. Capital preserved at $63.62 USDC; watcher is live and will fire within 24 min or on first non-swap intent.

Bear-Yosher (primary binary poster) crashed 1471 min; Vulture-Andrew's 8 live intents all classified as swap (SSV, sNVDA, sAAPL, sMSFT); no BinaryBet on the open book across wakes 60–78; 0 tokens spent in last 5h confirming no LLM wakes triggered

Sound and disciplined — enforcing ≥3pp edge floor, one-move rule, and correctly reading an empty binary board each wake. However: the agent is solving the right problem (wait for binary flow) with the right discipline, in a market where the supply side (Bear-Yosher) has structurally vanished. The loop is correct but the stall is the market's fault, not a reasoning failure.

new non-swap intent appears on the open book (kind !== 'swap')

60-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=24 at time of snapshot)

MISSING: does not trigger specifically on BinaryBet kind — would fire on Option or IndexBasket posts too, producing low-value hold wakes

primary source of BinaryBets to mirror and accept — crashed 1471 min, the core supply gap

mission includes posting near-decided binaries as bait; currently 8 live intents but all swaps — no binary posted post-restart

takes near-decided binary bets; could be a flow signal but doesn't post BinaryBets for Mimic to mirror

posts small-shade binaries — could be a mimic source, 2 lifetime deals, very thin flow

none — watcher confirmed no non-swap intents appeared in the watch window; binary market empty across all 8 most-recent wakes; no BinaryBet to accept or mirror

fires on kind !== 'swap' — correctly proxies for BinaryBet candidates without an LLM call

60-min fallback (currently 24 min to next fire) prevents indefinite sleep in thin markets

zero-LLM, armed, pid-alive — efficient; explains $0 token spend in last 5h

cadence (50 min avg gap, 60-min fallback) is appropriate for a patient taker waiting on episodic binary flow

isNonSwap catches Options and IndexBasket intents too — would fire a hold wake if Option-Writer-Matheus or Index-Maker posts, burning $0.63/wake for no signal

Tighten the filter to kind === 'binary' (or the actual BinaryBet kind string) so the watcher only fires on genuine mimic candidates — reduces false wakes when Options/IndexBasket appear without a Bear-Yosher or equivalent binary poster acti

Binary market structurally frozen — Bear-Yosher crash starves mimic-eligible flow

Watcher fires on all non-swap intents, not BinaryBet-only

isNonSwap includes Options and IndexBasket; if Index-Maker or Option-Writer-Matheus posts, Mimic wakes, spends ~$0.63, and holds — wasted cost.

Replace isNonSwap with isBinaryBet (kind === 'binary' or exact kind string) in current.ts.

Momentum-Nikita

#1508 resolves | new SSV seller | SSV gap < -2pp | US mkt open 13:30 UTC | 9h fallback

Summary: Step-1 focus question (was #1342 economically dead?) is moot — agent self-corrected proactively: repriced to #1486 at oracle $2.22 (w25), made deal #144, then lifted fair sellers at w28/w29/w30 (#146: +1 SSV, #147: +0.5 SSV). SSV position now 22.39 @ $2.25 = ~$49.4, portfolio ATH $100.96. Intent #1508 (25 USDC → 11.11 SSV at $2.2502) live with pre-trigger at

Agent executing well — 3 deals since last summary, self-corrected stale #1342 before manual intervention needed. Primary risk is the stale US_MARKET_OPEN_MS trigger in the w30 watcher (fires immediately on every loop cycle); reliableCounterparties = 1 (LP-Maker-Matheus alone handles large SSV lots).

Intent #1508 (25 USDC → 11.11 SSV) open; LP-Maker-Matheus has no live SSV ask per Step-1; recent fills were small-lot only (#146: 1 SSV via LP-Maker-Matheus, #147: 0.5 SSV). Large-lot (>10 SSV) sellers appear infrequently.

Sound and on-mission. Correctly identified stale #1342 ($2.12 vs oracle $2.22) at w25 and repriced; avoided churn at w26 (no fair sellers visible); lifted fair sellers opportunistically at w28/w29/w30. SSV momentum gap 8.78pp slow (w29) is decisive — no phantom signal, no redundant re-posting.

New SSV seller ≤ +1% above baseline oracle ($2.24)

SSV momentum gap vs best-of(BTC, ETH) drops below -2pp from w30 baseline

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 — STALE (already 1h past; fires on every loop iteration)

Intent expiry pre-trigger 18:40 UTC Jun 11

5 of 8 settled deals, 112 total deals, primary SSV fill source

1 fill; 8 live intents post-restart including SSV-adjacent; takes mispriced swaps

1 fill; DCA-style could be natural SSV seller if overweight SSV

none — w28/w29/w30 each took the only fair-price SSV seller visible on the book; no liftable seller left unfilled across these wakes.

SSV seller filter (≤1% above oracle) is tight and directly on-mission — won't wake on expensive sellers

Momentum reversal trigger (-2pp gap vs best-of BTC/ETH) is the correct stop-loss for a momentum agent

Pre-trigger 10 min before intent expiry (#1508 ~18:40 UTC) prevents last-minute scrambles

Correctly restricts universe to crypto-only while US markets are closed (stocks frozen at last close)

US_MARKET_OPEN_MS = 2026-06-11T13:30:00Z is 1h in the past — `Date.now() >= US_MARKET_OPEN_MS` evaluates true on every poll loop, firing the watcher immediately

No one-shot guard on the time trigger; it re-fires every loop cycle once the target time passes

Remove the US_MARKET_OPEN_MS trigger from the w31 watcher (US markets are already open; the signal already fired at w28); set to next trading day's open in future wakes, or guard with a seen flag.

Stale US market-open time trigger fires on every watch loop iteration

w30 watcher has US_MARKET_OPEN_MS = new Date('2026-06-11T13:30:00Z').getTime(). Current time ~14:33 UTC. Every runWatchLoop iteration evaluates the condition as true and calls fireWake() immediately, collapsing all other triggers and burning token budget on rapid-fire wakes.

In next wake script, drop the US_MARKET_OPEN_MS trigger entirely (stocks already in universe) or advance to 2026-06-12T13:30:00Z and add a `let marketOpenFired = false` guard to fire only once per watcher lifetime.

Single reliable counterparty for large SSV lots

LP-Maker-Matheus provided 5/8 fills; Vulture-Andrew and Rebalancer-Lior 1 each (likely small lots). If LP-Maker-Matheus exhausts SSV inventory, #1508 (25 USDC large lot) will stall as #1327 and #1342 did.

No immediate change; monitor. If #1508 stalls past 4h, reduce lot to ~10 USDC to match small-lot seller depth on the book.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: Holds call #118 (strike $203.69, prem $0.25, expiry ~17:37 UTC Jun 11) and put #119 (strike $201.75, prem $0.23, expiry ~18:31 UTC Jun 11) — unchanged since w26 (920 min ago). Watcher armed/pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=422 → fires ~17:32 UTC today, ~14 min before call #118 expires. No new audited options appeared since w26; tokens_5h_usd=0 confirms silent/

Not crashed — correctly resting. The watcher's MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS check (1781194956) and 23h fallback (nextFallbackMin=422) converge at ~17:32 UTC today, giving ~14 min of cushion before call #118 expires. No new options posted by option-writer-matheus since the last wake 15+ hours ago; nothing to act on. Both expirations will be caught.

All 4 settled deals sourced from option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). No new audited Template 0xb3d66f4b intents appeared in 920 min of watcher polls. Agent correctly idle — supply drought, not agent failure.

Sound and disciplined. w25 (call #118 at $0.25 for 23h tail on volatile sNVDA) and w26 (put #119 at $0.23, tight-to-the-money) both show genuine optionality-pricing logic. Now correctly resting. Not solving the wrong problem — it has no new options to evaluate and will wake precisely when its existing positions enter settlement window.

New audited Option intent with templateHash=0xb3d66f4b appears in open book (polling every 60s)

nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956) — fires ~17:32 UTC today, ~14 min before call #118 expiry

23h fallback from last arm — nextFallbackMin=422 → ~17:32 UTC today (converges with settlement trigger)

Sole option writer; all 4 deals sourced from this address. Health=ok, 17 deals.

None detectable. No new audited options appeared on book since w26 (920 min ago). Watcher has been polling every 60s and found nothing — supply-side drought from option-writer-matheus, not a scan failure.

Fires on new audited options by templateHash — precisely what the mission requires (selective, audited takes only)

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS check fires ~14 min before call #118 expiry — adequate cushion for LLM + tx

23h fallback converges with settlement trigger, providing a redundant safety net

60s poll cadence appropriate for option-book monitoring (not sub-minute overreach)

Baselines seen intents on first poll to avoid spurious wakes on startup

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to current deals (#118/#119); after today's settlement, the constant becomes stale (fires immediately on every future

Comment says '5 min' cushion but actual delta to call #118 expiry (1781195796) is 840s = 14 min — documentation drift, not functional issue

Single-counterparty exposure: if option-writer-matheus goes silent, watcher may never fire on new-intent path again

Replace hardcoded MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS with a dynamic value: on each poll, read open deals' expiries from the belt and fire if any deal is within 20 min of expiry. This survives settlement of today's positions without a manual constant update.

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS hardcoded to current deal expirations

After deal #118 and #119 settle today, MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS=1781194956 will be permanently in the past — the settlement-window trigger will fire on every 60s poll, causing runaway wakes until the constant is manually updated.

Derive settlement deadline dynamically each poll from live open deals' expiryTs fields; remove the hardcoded constant entirely.

Single counterparty (option-writer-matheus) creates structural supply risk

100% of deal flow (4/4) from one writer. If option-writer-matheus slows option output or goes offline, this agent has no alternate supply and will enter indefinite idle.

Agent-level: widen scope to any agent posting audited Option intents, not just this writer; the templateHash filter already enforces audit safety without writer-identity restriction.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Previous repricing (sAAPL −3.9%, sNVDA −1.3%) didn't attract fills over 1hr. More aggressive pricing (−5.3%, −1.9%) need

intents 1570/1571 fill/expire, vol spike ≥1%, buyer option intent, or market open 2026-06-12T13:25Z

Summary: w98 now, Engine 1 paused for 61 consecutive wakes (w37→w98, ~118 hours). Since w93 (+5 wakes), all three resume gates remain false: (1) no vol spike ≥1% — w96 explicitly notes intraday moves are 'normal 1–3%'; (2) sNVDA/sMSFT still worst-2, no ranking rotation; (3) zero new buyer option intents on book. Settled deals locked at 17 — the 'custom settled ↔ Opti

61-wake Engine 1 pause is well-grounded: 17 settled deals unchanged since w37, zero buyer option intents on book across all 5 wakes since w93 (w94–w98), book stable at $96.73–$96.78. The single actionable gap is the wake script only catches new-buyer-intent in real-time — vol spike (the other fast-moving gate) has up to 120-min detection lag.

7 consecutive unfilled option posts (w26–w37) exhausted buyer demand; 0 buyer option intents on book through w98; the sole option settlement (custom ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus) is 1 deal in settled_deals_detail, unchanged since prior summary

Sound, disciplined, solving the right problem. The three-gate check (vol spike / ranking rotation / buyer intent) is a correct decision framework for an option writer in a thin book. The agent correctly avoids writing into zero demand — capital preservation over churn. Not rubber-stamping: the reasoning is genuinely correct here, not just disciplined-looking.

new buyer option intent (kind='option') appears on book

MISSING: real-time vol spike ≥1% detection — currently only caught at 120-min fallback cadence (up to 2h lag on the fastest Engine 1 resume signal)

natural buyer for Engine 1's written options; call #118 expiring ~17:37 UTC today suggests active option demand, but focused on near-expiry/

takes near-decided options and mispriced intents; could take a written option if priced favorably, but not a primary option buyer

none — watcher does read the open book (readOpenIntents limit:100) and found zero buyer option intents across all 5 wakes since w93; no takeable option buyer intents existed to miss

fires on new buyer option intent (kind='option') — the correct and only fast-moving Engine 1 trigger observable externally

120-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient options strategy (not sub-minute polling)

baselines existing option intents on first poll to avoid false-firing on stale book state

vol spike ≥1% is cited as Engine 1 resume gate in every wake, but the script has no real-time vol check — only the 120-min fallback catches it; a vol event that

Add a price-fetch inside the watch loop to compute intraday move (current vs open) and fireWake('vol spike: asset +X%') immediately if any tracked asset moves ≥1% — this closes the 2h lag on the fastest Engine 1 resume gate without adding L

Vol spike detection lag up to 120 min

Engine 1 lists vol spike ≥1% as a resume gate in every wake log, but current.ts only checks price data at the 120-min fallback — a spike that resolves within that window is invisible to the watcher

Fetch intraday oracle price inside the runWatchLoop callback and fireWake immediately on ≥1% move for any Engine 1 asset; adds ~1 RPC call per poll, no LLM cost

Option buyer demand structurally absent

61 wakes of zero buyer option intents; Option-Taker-Matheus (the sole natural counterparty, 4 deals total) is focused on near-expiry/ITM takes, not buying freshly written options; no other fleet agent is an option buyer

Bootstrap demand by having Option-Taker-Matheus or a new agent post explicit buyer-side option intents at target premium levels — Engine 1 will resume the moment one appears on book

Polymarket-Ljuba

Agent is in single-position hold mode (0.085722 sAAPL since entry); deal count 2 is lifetime, reflecting correct selectivity for a Polymarket-edge taker. No new mispriced binary/option intents reported across wakes w19–w26. This is correct behavior, not a malfunction.

new binary/option/unknown intent appears on book

Fallback: Jun11 20:00 UTC = 1781208000 (fires today, ~669 min out)

105 deals, deep inventory, quotes swaps near oracle mid — primary exit counterparty for sAAPL delivered swap

DCA trader that transacts in sMSFT/BTC; sAAPL trim is in its mandate (13:30 UTC stock-open event today), could co-transact

Fades dislocations in sAAPL/sNVDA; could absorb sAAPL if it's stretched above trailing average at exit

Price triggers on exact stop/forward thresholds ($277.34 / $303.75) — fires the instant price crosses, no polling lag beyond 60s

Horizon check uses on-chain nowTs from snapshot, not wall-clock — correct for blockchain-settled positions

Fallback set to Jun11 20:00 UTC (24h before horizon) to assess maker candidates — textbook pre-expiry assessment cadence

Tertiary book scan catches new binary/option/unknown intents — keeps Polymarket-edge mission alive during hold phase

w26 preemptive approval (tx 0xf145...) shows watcher caught needsApproval gap before exit was needed — defensive and correct

No oracle price available in the current data snapshot to confirm sAAPL is still between stop/forward this cycle — unverifiable from observer side only

horizonTs is loaded from state.json on first poll; a state.json corruption would silently fall back to hardcoded 1781294400 with no alerting

sAAPL oracle price not confirmed in-range this cycle

Observer has no oracle snapshot for sAAPL current price. Stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 range is assumed intact since no price trigger fired, but cannot be confirmed. Entry was $290.79; any gap above $303.75 would warrant immediate wake.

Confirm sAAPL oracle price at next agent wake or via manual snapshot call; no code change needed — price triggers in watcher will fire correctly if thresholds are breached.

Post-fallback maker candidate assessment needs lp-maker availability

Fallback fires Jun11 20:00 UTC today. Agent will need lp-maker-matheus (105 deals, primary counterparty) available to fill the exit swap. lp-maker health is currently ok with active deal flow.

No action now; monitor lp-maker health through today. If lp-maker goes dark before Jun11 20:00 UTC, alert so swing-nikita/rebalancer-lior can serve as backup exit counterparties.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC #1294 filled this wake — only discovery action needed. No capital to deploy until stocks open and sMSFT trim generat

US stock open 2026-06-11T13:30 UTC — sMSFT trim + BTC DCA

Stocks closed since w45 (23:41 UTC Jun 10); no USDC to deploy until sMSFT trim generates capital. Zero open intents, zero spend in 5h — correctly waiting, not stuck.

Primary fill counterparty — 4 of last 7 settled deals; will absorb BTC/sMSFT swaps near oracle

Took 1 recent rebalancer swap; latency arb profile means it takes fairly-priced book fills

Takes sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL bids near oracle+0.5% — could cross with sMSFT trim sell

1 historical swap fill; takes delivered swaps on strong movers — situational

Zero-LLM watcher — fires deterministically on wall-clock event (stock open 13:30 UTC)

60s poll cadence appropriate for a time-gated mission; not sub-minute

Fallback at 14:00 UTC (30 min buffer) with Math.max guard ensuring ≥5 min even if Date skews

Label explicitly names the planned action (sMSFT trim + BTC DCA), reducing confusion at fire time

Hardcoded date `2026-06-11T13:30:00Z` requires manual rewrite after each trading day — by design in this workflow but worth noting

Watch loop condition `Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS` stays true all day after 13:30; repeated fireWake calls possible if main loop delays, though fireWake semanti

Watch loop fires repeatedly after stock open

Once `Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS`, every 60s iteration calls `fireWake`. If the main loop takes >60s to kill the watcher, duplicate wakes are possible.

Add a `let fired = false` guard: `if (!fired && Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS) { fired = true; fireWake(...); }`

Stacker-Massimo

Oracle unchanged at $200.79 — bid 1485 still correctly priced. No sNVDA sell-side to take. No stale refresh needed.

Summary: Prior summary had Massimo pre-market, counting down to 13:30 UTC open. Since then the agent dropped its market-hours restriction and executed two sequential deals this morning: w29 (09:03 UTC, deal 140, 8.08 USDC, sNVDA oracle+0.77%) and w30 (09:34 UTC, deal 141, 6.07 USDC, sNVDA oracle+0.77%) — both ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus. Portfolio now 0.074928 sNVDA + 84.85 U

Massimo is on-mission and executing cleanly: two fills today at oracle+0.77% (well inside 1% ceiling), 15.15 USDC deployed of 100 USDC target. The imminent wake is a 45-min cadence fallback — a book check, not a meaningful opportunity signal. If LP-Maker-Matheus has fresh sNVDA asks, another fill follows immediately; otherwise Massimo re-arms and waits.

All 4 settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; no other counterparty has posted a takeable sNVDA sell. The 17-min gap since w30 with no event-triggered wake implies the book is currently dry of new sNVDA sells ≤12 USDC — normal inter-fill spacing, not a fault.

Sound and on-mission. The agent correctly identified oracle+0.77% as inside the 1% ceiling both times and acted. The earlier market-hours restriction (w23–w26) contradicted the '24/7' mission; removing it was the right call. No churn — each wake either executes or re-arms. Solving the right problem.

New sNVDA sell intent appears (poster gives sNVDA, wants USDC, fill cost ≤12 USDC)

MISSING: sAAPL and sMSFT sell-side — watcher is sNVDA-only despite mission covering all three tickers

Sole counterparty for all 4 deals; posts sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks near oracle mid — exact fill source Massimo needs

Posts sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT-denominated options; could create synthetic sell-side exposure but not direct swap asks

Posts delivered swaps for rebalancing — could occasionally be a seller of equity tokens if overweight

Unmeasurable for sAAPL/sMSFT: watcher is blind to those tickers between fallback ticks. If LP-Maker-Matheus posted sAAPL or sMSFT asks since w30, Massimo cannot detect them event-driven — only catches them on the 45-min cadence.

Event-driven on new sNVDA sells — fires precisely when there is something to act on, zero idle LLM burn

Cost filter (≤12 USDC) prevents oversized fills inline in the watcher

45-min fallback ensures periodic book sweep even in quiet intervals

Zero-LLM, pid-file written, clean armWatcher/runWatchLoop pattern

Watches only sNVDA — mission is sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT 24/7; sAAPL and sMSFT sells are only caught on fallback ticks, not immediately

No dynamic fallback shortening near market open — 45-min is fine off-hours but could miss the open burst

Extend isSNVDASell to an isTechEquitySell predicate covering sNVDA, sAAPL, and sMSFT — adds event-driven detection for two more tickers at zero extra cost and directly expands takeable opportunity surface.

Watcher blind to sAAPL and sMSFT sell-side events

current.ts only matches sNVDA posterGives intents. If LP-Maker-Matheus posts sAAPL or sMSFT asks, Massimo learns of them only on the next 45-min fallback tick — potentially 44 min of missed fill window per ticker.

Update isSNVDASell to match l.symbol === 'sNVDA' || l.symbol === 'sAAPL' || l.symbol === 'sMSFT' in the posterGives leg; rename to isTechEquitySell.

Single reliable counterparty — concentration risk

All 4 deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus. If Matheus pauses or runs out of inventory, Massimo's accumulation halts entirely. 84.85 USDC remains undeployed toward 100 USDC target.

No immediate action needed — Matheus is healthy and active. Monitor; if Matheus is dark >2h during market hours, surface as a fleet gap.

Swing-Nikita

SSV structurally blocked (zero inventory). sNVDA sub-threshold and narrowing. Stocks market-hours blocked. No resting in

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 — reassess sNVDA position

SSV: +5.72% sell signal present since last summary but agent holds 0 SSV — signal can never fire. sNVDA: -0.93% at w33, projected -0.56% at 13:30 UTC open, trending toward zero not toward -1.5% threshold. Stocks: market-hours gated until 13:30 UTC. All three active signals blocked simultaneously by

Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS (2026-06-11T13:30:00Z) — 60s poll fires wake

Fallback at 2026-06-11T15:30:00Z (nextFallbackMin=279 from ~10:51 UTC analysis time)

MISSING: no intra-session dislocation trigger — if sNVDA gaps down sharply pre-open (futures/pre-market), agent won't catch it until 13:30 UTC open fire

All 5 settled deals and both recent fills are ↔ LP-Maker; 109 total deals, 10 open intents, actively quoting swaps near oracle mid

Takes sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle; deals 140+141 vs LP-Maker confirm active sNVDA interest — could cross swing-nikita's post

sMSFT trim + BTC DCA at market open (nextFallbackMin=191) — overlapping stock universe but likely trimming not buying, so directional mismat

Fires precisely at US market open (13:30 UTC) — the only moment stock dislocations become tradeable, perfect cadence for a market-hours fader

60s poll interval appropriate — not sub-minute spam, catches the open within one tick

Fallback at 15:30 UTC (2h post-open) ensures the agent wakes even if the open-fire doesn't produce a trade — correct patience

Zero LLM in watcher, PID written, armed=true/pidAlive=true confirms healthy process

No pre-market futures check — a sharp sNVDA gap in futures (e.g. -2%+ pre-open) would cross the threshold before 13:30 UTC and the agent would miss it entirely

SSV sell path is permanently dead (zero inventory) but watcher still writes comments about SSV — minor noise, not a correctness issue

SSV sell leg permanently dead — zero inventory

SSV sell signal has been +5.72% for multiple cycles. Agent holds 0 SSV and has held 0 for the entire recent history (w26–w33 all log 'SSV blocked by zero inventory'). The sell-stretch leg of the mission cannot fire under any market condition until inventory is acquired.

Either (a) seed agent with SSV inventory so the sell path is live, or (b) update mission/CLAUDE.md to explicitly gate SSV sells on non-zero inventory and acknowledge SSV trades require a prior buy — current mission language implies a two-way fader but the agent is structurally one-directional on SSV

No pre-market dislocation detection

sNVDA projected ~-0.56% at 13:30 UTC open under the current narrowing trend, but futures/pre-market moves could widen dislocation to ≥-1.5% before open. The watcher only checks clock time, so a pre-market gap would be missed until the 13:30 UTC fire.

Add oracle/futures poll in the watcher 30–60 min before open; fire early if threshold already met.

Vulture-Andrew

No edges. 1511 expires naturally in 4 min; sNVDA 1513 rebalance live; all 4 sharp-quotes (1519/1514/1515/1542) already o

w78/w80/w82: gas ~$1.07–$1.44 to cancel+repost vs $0.04–0.05 marginal edge improvement; rivals quoting 1% vs vulture's 1.3–1.8% on 1432/1443/1450. All 7 recent settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus swaps — no binary/option edges taken since restart.

New takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges, 30s poll)

Quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes cancelCmds)

MISSING: no trigger on deal settlement by counterparties (could miss a taker filling a rival quote that creates a new edge window)

Dominant fill partner — 6 of 7 most recent settled deals; deep equity/crypto inventory creates swap opportunities for vulture's edge-taking

Both edge-take; could compete on same binaries rather than transact — not a natural counterparty unless one makes what the other takes

SSV intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, 78 min remaining) is live — vulture could take if edge ≥1%, but LP-Maker isn't matching it at oracle

Crashed (1292 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false) — no activity, no counterparty flow

Pre-seeds known honeypot IDs (779, 836, 869) — prevents watcher from firing on traps

Four distinct triggers (edge, pre-expiry, erosion, fallback) all mission-relevant for a bait+take agent

30s poll with 30s de-bounce is efficient without being sub-minute spam

Zero-LLM in watch loop; 2h fallback is appropriate for patient vulture cadence

check-my-quotes cancelCmds integration means watcher fires exactly when action is warranted

No minimum-position-size filter before gas-gate check — agent repeatedly wakes on w80/w82 to find the same undercut quotes it already knows it can't fix; wastes

seenEdgeIds set grows unbounded across watcher lifetime — long-lived sessions will silently skip edges that were 'seen' earlier but conditions changed

Undercut-but-can't-fix loop burning LLM tokens

Wakes w76/w78/w80/w82 all concluded 'no action' because gas > marginal gain on already-undercut quotes. Each wake costs ~$0.68 LLM. Four no-op wakes = ~$2.72 wasted in 47 min.

In wake script, track which cancelCmds were gas-gated last wake; if identical set returns and TTL > 30 min, skip wake trigger (or extend poll to ~15 min for those specific intents). Alternatively, lower the re-quote position floor so refresh becomes gas-positive at smaller sizes.

seenEdgeIds set never pruned

Set accumulates all seen edge IDs across watcher lifetime. After hours/days, a previously seen edge that re-prices to a new opportunity won't fire (ID already in set).

Store seenEdgeIds as Map<id, timestamp> and evict entries older than edge TTL (~2h). Or reset set on each wake restart.

Rivals consistently undercutting at 1% — structural book compression

1432 ($3.45, 1.3%), 1443 ($4.46, 1.34%), 1450 ($8.12, 1.8%) all out-competed. If rivals can sustain 1% spread profitably, vulture's floor needs re-calibration or the book is permanently crowded out.

Fleet-level: surface which agent(s) are quoting at 1% on these pairs — if it's a misconfigured agent offering unsustainable spreads, that's a fleet issue. If it's fair competition, vulture needs a tighter floor or a differentiated bait angle.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

PARTIAL · 14/14 agents

Mimic-Ljuba 16/16 settled deals all ↔ Bear-Yosher; reliableCounterparties=0; 0 BinaryBets across 21-item open book; Bear-Yosher settled_deals frozen at 17

9/16 recent settled entries bilateral with LP-Maker-Matheus; Stacker-Massimo 4/4 lifetime deals ↔ LP-Maker; Arb-Hunter-Tom 9/13 lifetime deals ↔ LP-Maker

w78/w80/w82 gas readings; Vulture deals frozen at 38 since restart; all 7 recent LP-Maker settled deals show LP taking fills Vulture targets

option-writer-matheus settled_deals=17 unchanged w37→w93; 0 buyer intents in 21-item open book; option-taker tokens_5h=0

LP-Maker open book: 4 USDC → 1.793 SSV ($2.23/SSV); #1342 visible in open book at 465m remaining; no other SSV seller in book

Synthesis degraded — per-agent rollup

Fleet synthesis call failed; showing a deterministic rollup of 14 agent verdict(s) instead of a cross-agent read.

Check observer logs for the claude failure detail (exit code + stdout/stderr head + elapsed).

Binary surface structurally frozen

0 binary bets on book across all observed wakes (w209–w216); arb-hunter-tom's primary mission surface is inactive. Not agent's fault — no makers posting binary bets.

Fleet-level: identify why binary makers (bear-yosher crashed at 1471 min, mimic-ljuba, polymarket-ljuba) aren't posting. Bear-Yosher restart would directly restore the primary arb surface.

Silent process death loses all wake triggers with no recovery

When the watcher process dies (post-arm), armWatcher state is cleared in memory; the 4h fallback at ~15:17 UTC Jun 10 and deal-75 near-expiry at ~00:53 UTC Jun 11 both silently missed — 11h of deal limbo and a full anchor cycle lost with no alert

SDK armWatcher should persist registration to disk; a lightweight cron-style supervisor should relaunch the watcher script if PID dies before fallback fires, or emit a PushNotification to the operator on unexpected process death

Concurrent wake collision: dual fires from same guard event produce duplicate intents

w123: two simultaneous wakes on BTC guard at $63,050 — both cancelled #1505 (one with no-log error), both reposted. w125: duplicate SSV bid #1539=#1541 found and cleaned (wasted capital, phantom depth). Pattern recurs whenever a price guard fires while a prior wake is still writing state.json.

wake-watch.js armWatcher should enforce single-instance via PID-lockfile: on entry, read current.pid — if the PID is alive, exit 0 immediately. This is a shared SDK fix that protects all watcher-using agents.

Bear-Yosher at 1471-min crash is the sole reliable BinaryBet poster; with it down, Mimic-Ljuba and Arb-Hunter-Tom have no primary flow to act on. Vulture-Andrew could fill the gap (mission includes near-decided binaries) but has not posted any binary since restarting.

Recover Bear-Yosher (resolves deal #75 epoch 1781139624 state first) or nudge Vulture-Andrew's mission to post at least one binary per cycle when the binary book is empty — either action creates flow Mimic can mirror.

Fleet-level: identify why binary makers (bear-yosher crashed at 1471 min, mimic-ljuba, polymarket-ljuba) aren't posting. Bear-Yosher restart would directly restore the primary arb surface.

SDK armWatcher should persist registration to disk; a lightweight cron-style supervisor should relaunch the watcher script if PID dies before fallback fires, or emit a PushNotification to the operator on unexpected process death

wake-watch.js armWatcher should enforce single-instance via PID-lockfile: on entry, read current.pid — if the PID is alive, exit 0 immediately. This is a shared SDK fix that protects all watcher-using agents.

Recover Bear-Yosher (resolves deal #75 epoch 1781139624 state first) or nudge Vulture-Andrew's mission to post at least one binary per cycle when the binary book is empty — either action creates flow Mimic can mirror.

Fleet-level: surface which agent(s) are quoting at 1% on these pairs — if it's a misconfigured agent offering unsustainable spreads, that's a fleet issue. If it's fair competition, vulture needs a tighter floor or a differentiated bait angle.

claude exit 1 (model claude-sonnet-4-6, 3077ms, prompt 25408b, stdout 74b, stderr 0b) stdout: Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials (after 3 tries)

Better — Vulture-Andrew fully restarted (8 live intents, $17.22 burn vs $0 crashed last run) and LP-Maker-Matheus surged 96→112 deals (+16 this cycle, all swap); binary market remains hard-frozen with Bear-Yosher at 1471 min crash (+59 min).

Option-Taker-Matheus timing: call #118 expires ~17:37 UTC today, watcher fires ~17:12 UTC — <25 min window to exercise if ITM

Vulture-Andrew gas gate: 8 live intents rebuilt post-restart but deals still at 39 (+1 only); gas gate was blocking fills — resolved or still firing?

Momentum-Nikita intent #1342 stall: 25 USDC → 11.11 SSV (implied $2.25/SSV) open 422+ min with no SSV seller; LP-Maker-Matheus has no live SSV ask on book

Swing-Nikita market-open trigger at 13:30 UTC is now ~1.5h past — did sNVDA breach -1.5% and fire?

Bear-Yosher: deal #75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 (~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) is 11h past with agent crashed; on-chain state unresolved

Prior summary logged +2 fills (deals 138–139 vs LP-Maker-Matheus); current count is 16 — how many new fills since those two, which counterparties (LP-Maker-Matheus vs Vulture-Andrew's 8 live intents), and is the swap-pivot still the active

Crash now 1471 min (up 59 min from prior 1412); deal #75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 is ~11h past — has it settled or expired on-chain, and is there any restart signal or operator intervention pending?

Still 0 wakes / null address / null wake_script_source this cycle, or is there finally a provisioning signal?

Still null/unprovisioned, and with index-maker also offline, is LP-Maker-Matheus's 10-intent swap book the only active market segment available to a future index-taker?

Deals jumped 96→112 (+16 this cycle) — which counterparties drove this (Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, Arb-Hunter-Tom visible in recent deals), and is the full 10-intent book still correctly priced vs oracle with no stale or duplicate quo

With Vulture-Andrew now posting 8 live intents (including SSV, sNVDA, sAAPL, sMSFT swaps) and binary market still empty — is there any BinaryBet or mimic-eligible intent now reachable, or is Mimic-Ljuba still correctly idle pending Bear-Yos

Intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.11 SSV, implied $2.25/SSV, 422 min TTL) has been open 466+ min — LP-Maker-Matheus has no live SSV ask on book right now; is this intent economically dead at current prices and should the agent cancel/reprice on ne

Watcher fires ~17:12 UTC (nextFallbackMin=305 from now); call #118 expires 17:37 UTC, put #119 expires 18:31 UTC — does the firing window give enough time to exercise call #118 if ITM, and what is the current ETH/BTC oracle price vs the two

Engine 1 paused 56+ consecutive wakes — have any of the three resume gates (vol spike, premium demand signal, new option expiry window opening) been met since w93, or is the pause still structurally correct?

Holds 0.085722 sAAPL with stop $277.34 / target $303.75 / horizon Jun 12 20:00 UTC; today's Jun 11 20:00 UTC fallback fires in ~492 min — is sAAPL price trending toward stop or target, and does the agent need to act at today's fallback or c

The 4 Rebalancer-Lior entries in recent settled_deals — are these new fills since the prior summary's last fill (BTC #1294 at w45, Jun 10 23:41 UTC), or are they the same w39–w44 cycle deals already counted? What is the current portfolio ga

Open intent (10 USDC → 0.04956 sNVDA, implied $201.77/sNVDA, 287 min TTL) — is this priced within 1% of oracle and competitive with LP-Maker-Matheus's live sNVDA asks (12 USDC → 0.060124 sNVDA = $199.60 implied), and did the w29/w30 fills (

Market-open trigger at 13:30 UTC has now passed (~1.5h ago per current time) — did the watcher fire and was sNVDA below the -1.5% buy trigger, or is the no-trade streak extending to w34+ because sNVDA remains above threshold?

Post-restart 8 live intents rebuilt ($17.22 burn) but only +1 deal (38→39) — is the gas gate still blocking fills, which of the 8 open intents are still live vs expired, and are Vulture-Andrew's quotes competitive with LP-Maker-Matheus's pa

bear-yosher: 1471 min crash with deal #75 past expiry epoch — operator must restart the agent and verify on-chain settlement status of the 3 live deals (especially #75)

option-taker-matheus: Confirm watcher fires before 17:37 UTC today (call #118 expiry); if call is ITM at fire time, agent must exercise — the <25 min window is the key risk this cycle

vulture-andrew: Diagnose gas gate status — 8 intents posted but only 1 new deal since restart; if gate is still blocking, identify threshold and whether it's a config fix

momentum-nikita: Intent #1342 stalled 466+ min with no SSV seller visible; agent should cancel and reprice or shift conviction on next wake

Binary market has been frozen for 1471+ min (Bear-Yosher crash); Mimic-Ljuba's $63.62 USDC is locked idle — consider whether a second binary-capable agent should be provisioned or Bear-Yosher restored