Arb-Hunter-Tom

bestTake=null on both surfaces. No binary bets. All new swap intents are taker-negative, blocked by needsApproval, or ha

Summary: Counter confirmed frozen at 11 through w204 — now 46+ consecutive waits (w197–w204 all 'No fill'). Key update since last summary: the 23bps oracle-leads-CEX block that held at w201 dissolved by w203 ('oracle caught up'), removing that structural edge-direction barrier. Despite this, no fill materialized — still no binary bets on book and all new swap intents

Deal counter frozen at 11 for 46+ consecutive waits (w197–w204); the oracle-leads-CEX block from w201 dissolved by w203, but no fill followed — market is simply not producing binary bets or exploitable swap edges on either surface. Agent reasoning and watcher are working correctly; this is a market/fleet supply problem, not an agent fault.

All 9 visible settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (8) + Rebalancer-Lior (1); LP-Maker active at 103 deals but not posting SSV swaps with ≥10bps above-CEX edge arb-hunter can take; bear-yosher (primary binary bet poster) crashed 1112m — zero binary bets on book at w197–w204; oracle gap dissolved w20

Sound and on-mission. Each wake correctly checks both SSV surfaces (buy + sell edge) against live Binance feed, applies the 10bps floor, and documents exactly why no action was taken (needsApproval, wrong asset, sub-floor, no bets). The oracle-catch-up observation at w203 is accurate self-diagnosis. No churn, no mis-classified stales, no drift. The only concern is that the agent is solving a solva

New intent ID above HIGH_WATER=1383 with SSV buy-edge (taker pays USDC, receives mSSV ≥10bps below CEX) or sell-edge (taker gives mSSV, receives USDC ≥10bps abo

New intent matching BINARY_BET_HASHES template (fires immediately on appearance)

8 of 9 visible settled deals; active at 103 total; but current posted intents don't clear the 10bps edge floor for arb-hunter

1 settled deal; posts SSV swaps when rebalancing; armed and counting down to US market open ~13:30 UTC — likely to post new intents then

Primary binary bet poster — arb-hunter's binary surface depends on bear-yosher being alive; deal #75 still in limbo

Posts sharp/baited intents that could create exploitable gaps; has 38 deals of history

None — watcher is book-aware (HIGH_WATER=1383 baseline, seenIds dedup), scans all new intents above watermark each poll, and the main loop independently confirmed bestTake=null at w203 and w204. No above-floor intent appeared on either surface.

HIGH_WATER + seenIds baseline prevents stale-intent fires on startup — correct for a pure-taker that must not re-evaluate already-processed intents

Monitors both SSV buy-edge AND sell-edge directions — catches whichever side LP-Maker or others happen to post

Binary bet hashes hard-coded as immediate wake trigger — zero latency on the agent's primary high-value surface

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for an arb hunter (not sub-minute polling, not hours-patient)

SSV CEX feed cached with 30s TTL — avoids Binance rate-limiting on tight poll loops

Binary bet wake fires on appearance alone, not near-expiry — agent's main loop will filter, but causes unnecessary wakes on far-dated bets (low cost, acceptable

ORACLE_SYMBOL map only covers BTC/ETH — if binary bets on other assets appear, the oracle mismatch check is blind to them

Wake script source truncated at buy-edge check — cannot verify the full USDC→mSSV edge logic, but visible structure is consistent with mission

Add a near-expiry pre-filter to binary bet wake (e.g., only fire if intent expiry is within NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC=1800) — reduces wasted wakes on far-dated bets while keeping the latency-arb trigger tight for near-decided ones.

Binary bet supply chain offline

bear-yosher (primary binary bet poster) crashed 1112m, vulture-andrew crashed 913m — arb-hunter's highest-value surface (binary bets) has had zero new supply for the entire prior-run and current-run window; w197–w204 all log '0 binary bets on book'

Operator restart of bear-yosher unblocks arb-hunter's primary surface immediately; no agent-side change needed

LP-Maker swap intents not clearing arb-hunter's 10bps floor

LP-Maker is active (103 deals, 10 open intents) but its posted SSV intents are priced inside the 10bps edge floor — arb-hunter's only active liquid counterparty isn't generating exploitable gaps on the swap surface; all new mSSV intents (#1364/#1365, etc.) log as taker-negative

No agent fix warranted — LP-Maker is correctly pricing near mid; the fix is binary bet supply (above) or a new taker-edge-aware maker posting above-CEX SSV intents

Portfolio USDC balance ($84.01) idle, no deployed capital

Agent holds $84.01 USDC + 1.7714 SSV (~$100.47 portfolio) with 0 open intents and 0 fills in 46+ wakes; realized PnL $0.48 on $7.64 lifetime token spend — marginal alpha at current opportunity rate

No immediate change — agent is correctly waiting for edge; consider whether mission scope could expand to other asset pairs if SSV arb remains structurally thin

Bear-Yosher

Exactly-one-resting invariant violated (836 expired). Posted 869 to maintain bear anchor. No BinaryBets available to tak

intent 869 fill/expiry OR new BinaryBet OR ETH/BTC +1.5% OR deal 75 near-expiry OR 4h

Summary: 994 min dark (+54 min vs prior 940 min). Hard crash unchanged: armed=false, pidAlive=false, zero token spend since w41 (Jun 10 11:17 UTC). Settled_deals still 17 — no new settlements. All 3 live deals (1 custom + 2 BinaryBet, all ↔ Mimic-Ljuba) remain 'live'; deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 (~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) is now well past, but crash blocks the agent

No change from last run. 3 live Bear↔Mimic-Ljuba deals (including deal 75, expired >2h ago) remain unsettled because the crashed agent cannot call the settlement function. At w39 BTC was 3.49% below strike — deal 75 was in-the-money; winning proceeds are unclaimed and ~$48–52 USDC remains locked.

armed=false, pidAlive=false since before deal-75 expiry; settled_deals frozen at 17 across consecutive runs; deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed with no settlement call; all 3 live deals ↔ Mimic-Ljuba (health:ok) who as losing counterparty has no incentive to initiate settlement

Last wake (w41) reasoning was sound — it posted intent 869 to maintain the exactly-one-resting invariant, logged deal 75 expiry approach, and armed a well-structured watcher. The problem is the watcher process died shortly after w41 (watcher.pidAlive=false now), so all of that correct reasoning is frozen mid-execution. The agent is not solving the wrong problem; it is simply not running.

Intent 869 fill/expiry (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet on book (newMatches on BINARY_BET_HASH)

Deal 75 near-expiry at epoch 1781139624 - 300s

sole counterparty on all 3 live deals; health:ok and active (16 deals), but as the losing side on in-the-money bets has no incentive to call

could absorb basket swap intents once bear-yosher restarts and recycles locked capital; not relevant to deal settlement

would take near-decided BinaryBets bear-yosher could post once restarted; not useful while crashed

Unmeasurable while crashed — watcher is blind to book. Settlement of deal 75 (in-the-money at w39: BTC 3.49% below strike) is the immediate missed action; each additional minute is unrealized profit sitting unclaimed.

Adverse price triggers (+1.5% ETH/BTC) correctly guard the bear thesis — fires before conviction is invalidated

Deal-75 near-expiry anchor (fire 5 min early) was exactly right for mission: claim settlement promptly

New BinaryBet detection via templateHash is precise — won't fire on irrelevant intents

4h fallback prevents permanent silence if all other triggers miss

Zero-LLM, runWatchLoop pattern is correct

Process is dead — script is irrelevant until agent is restarted

No self-healing: if the process dies, nothing re-arms it; the 4h fallback only helps if the process is alive

After restart, add a platform-level process supervisor (or cron ping) that detects pidAlive=false and auto-relaunches the watcher — the script design is sound but a dead process cannot self-recover.

No process resurrection for crashed watchers

bear-yosher has been dark 994 min. The watcher script is well-designed but a dead process cannot re-arm itself. bear-yosher, stacker-massimo, and vulture-andrew all share this failure mode — three agents dark simultaneously indicates a platform gap, not three independent agent bugs.

Add a fleet-level supervisor (e.g. a cron job or watchdog) that polls pidAlive and auto-relaunches watcher processes that have died.

Deal 75 settlement unclaimed — capital locked

betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed; BTC was 3.49% below strike at w39, making deal 75 in-the-money for bear-yosher. Mimic-Ljuba (losing side) will not self-settle. Capital (~$48–52 USDC) locked in 3 live deals cannot recycle into new positions until settled.

Manual restart of bear-yosher; first action should be to call settlement on deal 75 and the 2 other expired BinaryBets before posting new intents.

Index-Maker

Summary: 22nd consecutive null cycle — state is bit-for-bit identical to all prior runs. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. Checked the 1383-intent funnel: zero IndexBasket intents posted by any party. No wallet provisioning event, no operator initialization signal. Not a crash;

22 consecutive null cycles with zero state change. No IndexBasket intent exists anywhere in the 1383-intent funnel, no wallet has been provisioned, and no operator initialization signal has been observed. Both sides of this market (index-maker + index-taker) remain uninitialized — the market cannot form until an operator acts.

address=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0, wake_script_source=null across all 22 cycles; 0 IndexBasket intents in full funnel history

Unmeasurable — no wake has ever occurred, no reasoning has been executed. The agent has never had the opportunity to reason well or poorly.

MISSING: operator wallet provisioning (required before any watcher can be armed)

MISSING: operator initialization signal (no CLAUDE.md/tools loaded, wake_script_source=null)

Sole designed counterparty — takes the SHORT side of index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents after auditing the verified source

Also never initialized — address=null, 0

none — unmeasurable until initialized; watcher is blind to the book because it has never existed

wake_script_source=null — no watcher script exists at all

No fallback timer, no armed flag, no PID — the agent is fully inert

Operator must provision a wallet and run initialization before any wake-script analysis is possible; everything else is blocked on that single prerequisite.

Agent never initialized — no wallet, no script, no watcher

22 cycles with address=null, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, tokens_lifetime_usd=0. index-taker is in the identical state. The entire IndexBasket market is dark.

Operator action required: provision a funded wallet for index-maker (and index-taker), run the initialization flow to generate wake_script_source, and arm the watcher. No code fix will unblock this — it is a deployment gap.

Index-Taker

Summary: 22nd consecutive null cycle — zero delta confirmed. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, $0 lifetime spend. Index-maker (sole counterparty, health=unknown) remains uninitialized and has never posted an IndexBasket intent, leaving index-taker with nothing to audit or take. No operator restart, no wallet provisioni

Another null cycle — 22nd straight. Zero wakes, zero tokens, zero IndexBasket intents in the funnel. Index-taker cannot function until (a) index-maker is initialized and posting LONG IndexBasket intents, and (b) index-taker itself is restarted by an operator. Neither has happened.

index-maker health=unknown, 0 wakes recorded, 0 IndexBasket intents anywhere in the open-intent book (10 open intents all attributed to lp-maker-matheus or external wallets); index-taker armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null — process never started

No reasoning to read — zero wakes, null wake script. Agent has never executed a single cycle. The mission (audit-then-take IndexBasket shorts) is sound in design, but the preconditions (running process + live counterparty) have never been met.

MISSING: no wake script loaded — process is not running

MISSING: no IndexBasket intents on book to trigger on even if it were running

Sole designed counterparty — posts LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is built to audit and take the short side of

OFFLINE — health=unknown, never initiali

none — no IndexBasket intents have ever appeared in the book; nothing to miss

wake_script_source is null — no watcher script exists or was ever loaded

Process is not running (armed=false, pidAlive=false) so no trigger could fire regardless

Operator must: (1) initialize and start index-maker first so IndexBasket intents appear on book, then (2) provision index-taker with a wallet and start it with a watcher that polls for LONG IndexBasket intents from index-maker's address.

index-taker process never started

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null across 22 consecutive observer cycles. No operator has provisioned or started this agent.

Operator restart required — provision wallet, deploy wake script, start process.

index-maker must be initialized before index-taker can function

index-taker's entire mission depends on index-maker posting LONG IndexBasket intents. Index-maker health=unknown, 0 intents posted, never initialized. Starting index-taker before index-maker is live accomplishes nothing.

Initialize and start index-maker first; confirm at least one IndexBasket intent appears on book before restarting index-taker.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Cluster H expiry routine; ETH oracle drop repeated inversion pattern (3rd occurrence) — applied 25bps ETH bid floor goin

Cluster I pre-expiry ~06:07 UTC or ETH<1643.84 or SSV>2.24 or fillable intent | 90min fallback

12/12 quotes posted; 6 active counterparties (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, 0xBd6a…9863, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita); deal velocity limited by taker arrivals not LP quality. w85–w90 show 0 fills across multiple wakes despite tight quotes — thin taker side, not mispricing.

Cluster expiry guard: EXPIRY_FIRE_TS_SEC=1781133228 (~23:18 UTC) fires 5min before #1281–#1286 cluster expires

New fillable swap: newMatches() detects net-new intents where posterWants ∈ HOLD set

MISSING: inversion/spread-check trigger — concurrent-session inversions detected only at next poll (60s lag), causing arb bleed per event

Active arb taker; resurrection confirmed armed=true/pidAlive=true; appears 8× in recent deal list including w84 arb fill

Most frequent recent counterparty (~8 fills in tail); health=stuck but still settling LP intents

5 recent fills but current 4.96 USDC intent is sub-LP-minimum lot — won't clear until lior posts ≥12 USDC

2 recent fills; w23 20 USDC intent on book (18 min left) is above minimum

External wallet; 7 fills in recent tail — reliable taker source outside named fleet

Expiry cluster guard pins exact ts 1781133228 (5min before #1281–#1286 cluster) — no stale quotes

newMatches() on HOLD set: only fires on intents LP can profitably fill, not its own stale posts

60s poll interval — not sub-minute; patient cadence appropriate for 22-min avg gap

No oracle price guards (per playbook rule — avoids loop storms)

50min fallback ensures watcher doesn't go dark between clusters

No spread/inversion check: concurrent-session inversions (flagged w84, w87, w88) are discovered only at next 60s poll tick, allowing ~1min of arb exposure per e

Concurrent-session inversion recurs on every oracle move

w84, w87, w88 all report concurrent session posting inverted bids when oracle moves positive. Each event costs ~$0.076 arb loss plus a cleanup wake. Root: two watcher sessions posting simultaneously create crossed spreads. Watcher detects it reactively at next poll (up to 60s exposure).

Add inversion check in runWatchLoop body: compare own bid vs own ask prices per asset from readOpenIntents; fireWake immediately on cross. Also investigate why two concurrent watcher sessions arise — may need PID lock enforcement in armWatcher.

Token cost critical: $76.51/5h = 53.4% of pool

96 deals settling at $0.82/wake average; 87 wakes × $0.82 ≈ $71 but 5h cost is $76.51 with 80/87 repeat wakes. At this burn rate LP's token pool (~$143 implied at 53.4%) exhausts in ~5h. Repeat-wake rate 92% (80/87) suggests most wakes are maintenance not fills.

Core/SDK: add per-agent token budget cap and alert threshold. Agent-side: w85 correctly no-ops when nothing actionable — ensure repeat-wake suppression logic is consistently applied to avoid unnecessary LLM calls on zero-action wakes.

Mimic-Ljuba

No BinaryBet on board to accept; no recent flow to mirror. Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on entire visible board (all intents ar

Summary: Deal count in settled_deals_detail reduced 3→2 Bear-Yosher 'live' entries since last run — deal #75 (expired epoch ~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) appears to have dropped from the view, though 2 stale 'live' Bear-Yosher entries persist; openExposureUsd=0 in w71/w72 logs confirms no real open exposure. Agent held for 13 consecutive wakes (w60–w72) — board genuinely empty

Mimic-ljuba is correctly idle: 0 open intents, 0 new deals since prior run, $63.62 USDC intact. The 13-wake BinaryBet drought is entirely caused by Bear-Yosher (sole BinaryBet source) being offline for 1112m — this is a fleet problem, not an agent problem. Deal #75 display lag has cleared (3→2 'live' entries); remaining 2 stale 'live' entries contradict openExposureUsd=0 but are a core reporting lag, not real exposure.

All 16 settled deals are Bear-Yosher counterparty; bear-yosher last_wake_min_ago=1112; board empty of BinaryBets for 13 consecutive wakes (w60–w72); no other agent in the fleet posts BinaryBets at volume

Sound and disciplined. Agent correctly enforces ≥3pp edge floor and one-move-per-wake rule even when idle. Not churning — it is correctly diagnosing an empty board and holding capital. The problem it's waiting on (Bear-Yosher restart) is the right problem; no evidence of solving the wrong issue.

New BinaryBet intent appears on the open book (templateHash=0x09cd...060c)

Primary BinaryBet poster; all 16 of mimic-ljuba's settled deals are with Bear-Yosher

CRASHED — last_wake_min_ago=1112, no ope

Posts baited/near-decided binaries on occasion; 38 settled deals signals active binary flow when online

Posts small-shade binaries as part of its mission; 2 settled deals, low volume

None — board confirmed empty of BinaryBets for 13 consecutive wakes. Watcher is correctly armed and monitoring. No actionable flow existed to take.

Fires on new BinaryBet by templateHash — precise, mission-aligned trigger with zero false positives

60min fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient copy-trader with no time pressure

newMatches() baseline-then-diff pattern avoids firing on existing stale intents

Zero-LLM watcher — cheap to run during the long drought

No differentiation between crypto (24/7) and stock BinaryBets in the watcher — edge floor enforcement deferred to agent logic, but watcher could filter stock be

No urgent change needed. If stock BinaryBets appear at market open today (~13:30 UTC), the watcher will fire correctly. Optional: log the board-empty streak count in the watcher label (already done — 'Board has been empty for 13 wakes') so

Bear-Yosher crash starves mimic-ljuba of its only reliable counterparty

Bear-Yosher offline for 1112m; no operator restart; mimic-ljuba has held capital for 13 wakes with zero flow. reliableCounterparties=0.

Restart bear-yosher. Until then, mimic-ljuba cannot execute its mission regardless of agent health.

settled_deals_detail 'live' label persists past on-chain expiry

2 Bear-Yosher entries still show 'live' status despite openExposureUsd=0 in agent logs; deal #75 (expired epoch ~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) appears to have cleared (3→2 entries) but the remaining 2 are stale. Display lag creates confusion about real exposure.

Core reporting: reconcile settled_deals_detail status against on-chain expiry epoch; show 'expired/settled' label once epoch is past.

Momentum-Nikita

All 5 settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus (3), Rebalancer-Lior (1), LP-Maker again (1). Intent #1318 is a resting 25 USDC→11.31 SSV bid waiting for a SSV seller; no SSV sellers currently on book (watcher has not fired on newMatches). Market's fault — not agent's.

intent #1318 resolved (filled or expired via ownIntentResolved poll every 60s)

new SSV seller appears on book (newMatches against isSSVSeller filter)

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (effectiveDeadline = min(8h fallback, US_OPEN_MS))

MISSING: oracle price drift check — if SSV moves >1–2pp from $2.21 since w22, no early re-wake fires; intent silently mispriced until expiry

Sole active hub, 8 open intents, 3 of 5 momentum deals settled here; could hold SSV inventory

Settled 1 swap with momentum-nikita; DCA-style so may periodically give SSV for USDC

Takes SSV intents (buys SSV), doesn't give SSV — opposite direction to intent #1318

Fades dislocations — if SSV is stretched above trailing avg, swing-nikita may sell/give SSV

ownIntentResolved catches fill or expiry without waiting for fallback

newMatches + isSSVSeller filter directly serves the mission (take the next SSV seller)

US market open trigger correct — agent must re-rank with stocks when equities open

effectiveDeadline = min(fallback, US_OPEN_MS) cleanly prevents oversleeping past stocks

60s poll cadence appropriate — not sub-minute spam, actionable on book events

No oracle price drift check: intent #1318 posted at $2.21/SSV 25 min ago with no mechanism to detect SSV moving materially; if SSV is now $2.35, the resting bid

Watcher baseline (seenIntents) is set once at first loop — if watcher restarts mid-session, seenIntents resets and new-seller logic skips one tick

Intent #1318 has no oracle-drift guard

Watcher polls for fill/expiry and new sellers but never compares current SSV oracle price to the posted $2.21 rate. A >1.5% move since w22 (25 min ago) makes the intent silently stale until it expires at ~08:24 UTC or fallback fires at ~08:30 UTC — wasting up to 7.5h of potential re-pricing.

In runWatchLoop body, after fetching belt: fetch SSV oracle price, compute drift from 2.21; if |drift| > 0.015 call fireWake with reason string. One oracle read per 60s loop tick.

seenIntents baseline resets on watcher restart

seenIntents is initialized to null and set on first loop tick. If the process restarts mid-session (as happened at w15), the first tick re-baselines and skips firing on any sellers already on book — a one-tick delay in a fast market.

Persist seenIntents to data/wake/seen-intents.json on each update and reload on startup; fall back to empty set if file missing (fire on all current sellers at first tick, which is acceptable).

Option-Taker-Matheus

new audited Option intent appears OR deals settle window OR 23h fallback

Summary: Holds sNVDA call #118 (strike $203.69, prem $0.25, expiry ~17:37 UTC June 11) and put #119 (strike $201.75, prem $0.23, expiry ~18:31 UTC June 11) — unchanged since w26. Now 201 min since last wake (up from 140 min last run). Watcher armed/pidAlive=true, scanning every 60s; no new audited options on book. Correct behavior: supply from option-writer-matheus i

No new option intents since deal #119 (201 min ago) — the taker is correctly idle. Its 1141-min fallback fires ~45 min before deal #118's MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956), matching the settlement window by design. This is a functioning taker with a quiet supplier, not a broken agent.

All 4 settled deals trace to option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). Writer's nextFallbackMin=1144 confirms ~19h of silence ahead; 0 audited options on book for 201 min. Taker watcher polls every 60s and has not fired — book is genuinely empty.

Sound and on-mission. w25 (call #118): 'cheap optionality, 1.41%-OTM, 23h tail, 20x max pay' — quantitative. w26 (put #119): 'tight-to-the-money, thin premium, volatile sNVDA, 24h tail' — quantitative. No churn; silence between wakes is correct taker discipline when supply is absent.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f…ad63) — detected via 60s poll of open book

Settle window: nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956, ~17:37 UTC June 11 — 5 min before deal #118 expiry)

23h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1141, fires ~16:52 UTC June 11 — ~45 min before settle window)

Sole option supplier; all 4 deals sourced here. Writer is resting (~19h nextFallbackMin=1144) — next posts expected around w27/w28.

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents — could theoretically compete for the same intents, but does not supply options

None. Book has had 0 new audited option intents since w26. Watcher is polling correctly and would fire immediately on any new post.

Fires on new audited-hash option intents — exactly the signal this taker needs; can't fire on generic book activity

Settle-window trigger (MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS) aligns the 23h fallback with deal #118 expiry — agent wakes just before settlement, not randomly

First-poll baseline (seenIntentIds=null guard) prevents false-fires on stale intents already taken

60s cadence appropriate for an option book that posts infrequently

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to deal #118's window. After deals #118/#119 settle, any future deal taken will have a different expiry — the settle-

Replace the hardcoded MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS with a dynamic read of the agent's open deals' earliest expiry (subtract 300s), refreshed each poll loop. This keeps the settle-window trigger accurate after each new take without requiring a manual sc

Hardcoded settle-window timestamp goes stale after new deals

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 targets deal #118's expiry. Once #118/#119 settle and the agent takes a new option (different expiry), this check will never fire (past timestamp) — settle-timing precision is lost for all future deals.

Dynamically derive MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS each poll: read open deals, take min(expiry) - 300s. Store in a variable updated each loop iteration.

Single-supplier dependency on option-writer-matheus

4/4 deals from one counterparty. Writer is in a ~19h rest cycle (nextFallbackMin=1144). If writer crashes or shifts mission, taker has zero supply. No other agent currently posts audited-hash options.

Encourage a second option writer on the same audited template hash, or have option-writer-matheus post smaller batches more frequently so the taker has a steadier flow.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Discipline holds. All holdings on-target, Engine 1 paused (zero premium buyers 35 wakes running), Engine 2 locked (all l

Engine 1 resume: vol ≥1%, ranking rotation, or buyer option intent (or 120-min fallback)

Summary: Engine 1 now ~39 consecutive monitor-only wakes (w38→w77, +6 since last summary). Engine 2 still correctly locked: drift <±0.5% vs 5% threshold, inventory 69.7% vs 70% target — no rebalance warranted. New since last run: 'custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus' appears in settled_deals_detail, strongly suggesting one of the sNVDA options (#118 call ~17:37 UTC

Both engines are correctly inactive: Engine 2 is on-target (inventory 69.7%, buffer 30.3%, drawdown −3.53% vs −20% halt), and Engine 1 burned 7 unfilled option posts before self-pausing — now waiting on a buyer intent that hasn't materialized in ~40 wakes. The one 'custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus' deal in the feed is almost certainly the sNVDA option expiry fill today, confirming the counterparty channel is functional.

Engine 1 wrote 7 options (wakes ~26–37), zero fills; 0 open intents currently. Only confirmed option-taker counterparty is option-taker-matheus (4 deals total). Engine 2 locked by design: drift <0.5% vs 5% threshold, book $96.47–$96.62, no ranking rotation observed w72–w77.

Sound reasoning solving the right problem. Agent correctly distinguishes Engine 1 (buyer-demand gate) from Engine 2 (drift gate) and holds both with explicit conditions cited each wake. Not churn — each HOLD wake confirms the same stable state rather than re-deriving it. The one risk is Engine 1's self-pause is indefinite: if buyer intents appear and fill instantly (before the watcher's 60s poll),

Vol spike ≥1% on ETH/BTC/sNVDA/sMSFT vs baseline (serves both engines)

Stock ranking rotation in worst-2 (serves Engine 2 rebalance)

New non-swap custom intent on book (Engine 1 buyer signal)

MISSING: explicit portfolio drift check for Engine 2 — currently relies on vol/ranking proxy; sub-threshold drift that crosses 5% between fallback wakes could b

Only confirmed option buyer; custom settled deal today likely sNVDA #118 or #119 fill

ok (health ok, 4 deals, 2 options expiri

Engine 2 swap counterparty for portfolio rebalancing; 'Swap settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus' confirmed in deal history

Mission includes taking near-sure-win intents; could take deeply ITM options writer posts — but currently stuck/offline 913m

Unmeasurable for Engine 1: watcher polls every 60s for new buyer intents, but if an intent appears and is filled by another writer within the poll window, Engine 1 never sees it. Engine 2: none — portfolio is on-target, no rebalance signal present.

Three distinct triggers map cleanly to the two engines: vol spike / ranking rotation for Engine 2 rebalance; buyer-intent for Engine 1 option writing

Baseline initialization guard prevents firing on first poll

120-min fallback prevents indefinite sleep; 60s poll cadence appropriate for option-market scanning

Zero-LLM, lightweight — no runaway token cost

Engine 2 has no explicit drift-magnitude check — relies on vol/ranking proxies; a slow drift (e.g., 3%) that never triggers a vol spike could be missed between

Engine 1 new-intent detection has a 60s blind window — fast-fill buyer intents are invisible, potentially keeping Engine 1 dark indefinitely after self-pause

Add a periodic 're-probe' condition to Engine 1: if Engine 1 has been paused >24h with zero buyer intents seen, re-attempt writing one option to probe live demand rather than waiting on a buyer signal that may never appear in the watcher's

Option market has 1 reliable counterparty fleet-wide

Engine 1 can write options indefinitely but has only option-taker-matheus as a confirmed taker. When taker is fully allocated or inactive, Engine 1 starves regardless of how well it posts. 7 consecutive unfilled writes before self-pause is the symptom.

Seed a second option-taker agent or widen option terms (looser strike/expiry bands) to attract external wallets (0xBd6a…9863 has swapped with writer — could it take options?).

Engine 1 indefinite self-pause after 7 unfilled writes

After 7 unfilled option posts (wakes ~26–37), Engine 1 entered indefinite wait for a buyer intent. The watcher's 60s poll can miss intents that appear and fill in under a minute. If buyer intents are never seen, Engine 1 never re-attempts.

Add a 24h (or significant vol event) re-probe: write one option to test live demand, rather than requiring a buyer intent to appear in the poll window first.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL position well-anchored within weekly horizon, no exit triggers hit. No new dir

Summary: Holding 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / horizon Jun12 20:00 UTC). Silence extended from 778 min (prior summary) to 832 min — nextFallbackMin 1023→969 confirms exactly ~54 min elapsed since last summary, mechanically consistent. No stop/forward fires across 832 min of 60s polls confirms price has stayed within the $26.41 wide band t

Price confirmed within $277.34–$303.75 for 832 min with no bound fire; nextFallbackMin 1023→969 = 54 min elapsed, mechanically correct. Watcher will trigger at Jun11 20:00 UTC (~969 min) to assess exit before Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon. Only concern is shallow lifetime activity: 2 deals / $0.75 PnL across 26 wakes — the polymarket-comparison mission rarely finds mispriced targets, not an agent bug.

2 settled deals, $0.75 realized PnL across 26 wakes / 11.97 USD lifetime tokens. The polymarket-comparison workflow requires mismatch between on-chain implied probability and Polymarket's distribution — a structural scarcity condition independent of the agent's execution quality. Current hold is the

Sound and on-mission. Wakes w21–w26 consistently report 'no mispriced opportunities / position confirmed held / watcher armed' — this is correct behavior, not churn. The edge erosion narrative (3.1% → 1.5% across wakes w24→w22) reflects genuine distribution convergence as Jun12 horizon approaches, showing the agent understands its own position dynamics. No repeated incorrect moves.

blockchain time >= horizonTs (Jun12 20:00 UTC, read from state.json with hardcoded fallback 1781294400)

new binary/option intent appears on book (Set diff per 60s poll)

FALLBACK: Jun11 20:00 UTC = 1781208000 (~969 min, 24h pre-expiry assessment)

Primary swap exit counterparty — 102 deals, deep inventory, will absorb sAAPL → USDC at oracle mid

Primary source of new binary/option intents for polymarket comparison — writes 70/30 stock+crypto options

DCA swap taker; could overlap on sAAPL exit but mission is portfolio-mix driven, not guaranteed sAAPL demand

Crypto-down / tech-up player — would be counterparty on binary bets but crashed 992 min

crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 99

Unmeasurable from external data — agent's own book-scan (readOpenIntents, polymarket comparison) is the only source. Wakes w19–w25 all report 'no mispriced opportunities'; watcher does scan for new binary/option intents every 60s so reactive coverage exists. Cannot independently verify polymarket implied vs on-chain pricing from this data.

Stop ($277.34) and forward ($303.75) are hardcoded price sentinels — fires immediately on breach, no LLM needed

Horizon expiry read from state.json with correct hardcoded fallback (1781294400 = Jun12 20:00 UTC)

New-intent Set-diff scan correctly catches fresh binary/option postings each 60s poll — right trigger for a taker

Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback (Math.max(..., 4h floor) = 969 min) gives pre-expiry assessment window before Jun12 deadline

60s poll cadence appropriate for price-bound monitoring without being aggressive

After Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback fires, re-arming (if agent decides to hold) will produce a new FALLBACK_MS via Math.max(negative, 4h) = 4h — agent will need to r

After the Jun11 20:00 UTC assessment wake, agent should rewrite watcher with FALLBACK_MS targeting the actual Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon expiry rather than relying on the 4h-floor fallback, to ensure the exit wake is precisely timed rather tha

Post-fallback watcher has imprecise 4h floor deadline

Current FALLBACK_MS = Math.max((1781208000 - now)*1000, 4h). Once Jun11 20:00 UTC passes, all subsequent re-arms fall back to 4h cycles rather than a precise deadline tied to the Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon expiry. In the final 20h window the agent could miss a clean exit window by up to 4h.

In the wake loop's post-assessment re-arm (after Jun11 20:00 UTC fires), rewrite current.ts with FALLBACK_MS computed against 1781294400 (Jun12 20:00 UTC) rather than the stale 1781208000 anchor.

Polymarket-comparison mission structurally starved: bear-yosher (binary writer) crashed 992 min

bear-yosher is a primary source of BELOW-strike binary bets (deals 17) but has been crashed 992 min. With it dark, the on-chain binary supply is thinner and polymarket-ljuba's comparison scan finds fewer candidates. 2 lifetime deals reflects genuine opportunity scarcity, not agent failure.

Revive bear-yosher — it is the highest-leverage recovery for polymarket-ljuba's deal flow. Until then, option-writer-matheus (17 deals, health=ok) remains the primary opportunity source.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC #1294 filled this wake — only discovery action needed. No capital to deploy until stocks open and sMSFT trim generat

US stock open 2026-06-11T13:30 UTC — sMSFT trim + BTC DCA

Summary: Countdown continues: nextFallbackMin 609→489 (~120 min further decay since prior summary, consistent 1:1 elapsed-time decay; 731→663→609→489 across three runs). Current time ~05:49 UTC Jun 11 — 13:30 UTC watch-loop trigger has NOT fired (still ~7h41m away); fallback at 14:00 UTC is 489 min out. No new wakes, no capital deployed, 15 settled deals unchanged si

13:30 UTC trigger has not fired — current time ~05:49 UTC Jun 11 (~7h41m to go). Agent is alive (armed+pidAlive=true), countdown decaying normally (489 min to 14:00 fallback). No capital deployed since w45; sMSFT approve+trim+BTC DCA all contingent on stock open. Nothing is broken.

Mission requires stock market open (sMSFT trim) to generate capital for next BTC DCA slice. No open intents, 0 tokens burned in 5h, 15 deals static since #1294 fill. Correct behavior — not stalled, waiting on a time-gate.

Sound and solving the right problem. w45 correctly concluded 'no capital to deploy until stocks open' after exhausting BTC premium escalation (oracle → +1.47% → +2.07% → +3% → +4%, 4 USDC slices). The agent stopped posting rather than burning more budget in a closed-market gap. Countdown watcher is the right next action.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-11T13:30:00Z (US stock open, fires the wake)

Fallback at 2026-06-11T14:00:00Z (489 min from ~05:49 UTC, max() guard prevents negative delay)

4 of last 7 settled deals; primary fill source for BTC/ETH swaps

1 settled deal; takes BTC swaps opportunistically but deal counter frozen at 11

ok health but structurally blocked on SS

1 settled deal; stock-rotation agent that may want sMSFT at open

Fades dislocations — may take opposite side of sMSFT trim if stretched above average

None. Agent is in a deliberate time-gate pause. Watcher loop polls every 60s but does not inspect the order book — appropriate since the trigger is a time event (stock open), not a book event. No intents to take exist in its mission scope while stocks are closed.

Event-driven trigger (Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS) fires exactly when the mission needs it — stock open unlocks sMSFT trim capital

60s poll cadence — not sub-minute, patient DCA agent thinks in hours

max(..., 5*60_000) guard on FALLBACK_MS prevents negative or zero delay if script loaded late

Zero-LLM, deterministic — can't fire on stale data or spurious book state

Hard fallback at 14:00 UTC ensures wake even if watch-loop misfires

FALLBACK_MS computed once at script load (06-10T23:41 UTC) — if process dies and restarts, re-armed fallback would re-derive from new Date() correctly, but the

Update the comment/label to 'Wake 46' after the stock-open wake fires and a new script is written — minor hygiene, not blocking. No functional change needed.

Single reliable counterparty (LP-Maker) for all liquid fills

4/7 recent fills came from LP-Maker-Matheus. If LP-Maker is unavailable at 13:30 UTC stock open, sMSFT trim may stall. Arb-Hunter-Tom (1 prior fill) is structurally constrained. No other DCA-compatible counterparty is consistently present.

At stock open, check if LP-Maker has sMSFT sell-side depth before posting at oracle; if thin, post a modest premium immediately rather than starting the escalation ladder from zero.

Wake-script label will be stale after stock-open wake fires

wake_script_source still says '// Wake 45' and references the Jun 11 13:30 UTC event. After that wake executes and the next script is written, the label should advance.

Increment comment to 'Wake 46' in the next script written at 13:30 UTC wake — cosmetic but keeps the board readable.

Stacker-Massimo

Bid is tracking oracle correctly (posted at oracle×0.99 when oracle=$207.92; oracle unchanged). No sweepable sell-side.

Summary: Still crashed at 844 min since w27 (Jun 10 12:05 UTC) — +54 min delta vs last run, zero new activity, no operator restart. The wake script (current.ts) hardcodes Jun 10 epochs (MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200, MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000) — both now stale; if the process were restarted today, the first guard `nowSec() >= MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH` fires immediately (

No restart has occurred (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). The entire Jun 10 US session (13:30–16:00 UTC) was missed; Jun 11 is ~7h away and tracking to miss as well. Critically, the live current.ts is not just dead — it is wrong for Jun 11: hardcoded epochs would cause an immediate spurious fire on restart, not a clean market-open wait.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 (Jun 10 13:30 UTC, ~26h past); MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 (Jun 10 20:00 UTC, ~20h past); 0 token spend in last 5h; settled_deals stuck at 2 since w22

Sound reasoning, wrong problem. w27 showed good mission-alignment — it reset consecutive_misses, approved 10 USDC, targeted sNVDA correctly. But the watcher it wrote hardcodes specific calendar epochs rather than computing today's session dynamically. The discipline in the trade logic is real; the fragility is in the epoch-hardcoding pattern, which makes every crash a double failure: process down

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 reached (Jun 10 13:30 UTC) — fired in the past, process was dead before it could trigger

oracle drift >0.5% vs ORACLE_SNVDA_BASE=207.92

new sweepable sNVDA sell-side intent (price ≤ oracle×1.005, cost ≤ 12 USDC)

MISSING: dynamic Jun 11 market-open epoch (script only knows Jun 10)

Primary swap counterparty for USDC→sNVDA at oracle mid; 102 deals, health ok, actively filling during market hours

Could post sNVDA sell-side if rebalancing away from it; 15 deals, health ok

Rotates into/out of assets including sNVDA — could be sell-side if rotating out

Jun 10 US session (13:30–16:00 UTC, ~2.5h window) missed entirely. LP-Maker was active during this period (+6 deals fleet-wide 96→102). At least one 0.50 USDC sNVDA swap intent could have been posted and likely filled. Exact sNVDA sell-side count is unmeasurable (watcher blind to book since crash), but LP-Maker's activity confirms the session was liquid.

Correct trigger logic: fires on market open, oracle drift >0.5%, or new sweepable sell-side — all mission-relevant

30-min fallback during market hours is appropriate cadence for a patient one-slice-per-wake strategy

Pre-market sleep-until-open pattern (msToOpen + 2 min buffer) is well-reasoned

Sweep filter (price ≤ oracle×1.005, cost ≤ 12 USDC) is tight and mission-aligned

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH are hardcoded Jun 10 calendar epochs — stale as of now

If restarted today: `nowSec() >= MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH` is immediately true → spurious fire before market opens

ORACLE_SNVDA_BASE=207.92 is a point-in-time snapshot from w27; 14h of price drift unaccounted

No self-healing: a stale epoch means every crash requires both a process restart AND a script rewrite

Replace hardcoded MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH/MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH with dynamic epoch computation: `const todayOpenEpoch = nextMarketOpenEpoch()` using a helper that calculates today's 13:30 UTC in seconds, checking if that window is still future — thi

Process crashed 844 min ago, no restart

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null since Jun 10 12:05 UTC. Jun 10 US session missed entirely. Jun 11 session opens in ~7h.

Operator restart required immediately. Budget: 9.00 USDC free, 0.004928 sNVDA held — no capital issue, just a dead process.

current.ts hardcodes Jun 10 epochs — script must be regenerated on restart

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 are both ~20-26h in the past. A naive restart fires immediately (market-open guard always true), producing a spurious wake and incorrect market-hours logic for Jun 11.

On restart, agent must write a new current.ts with dynamic epoch computation for Jun 11 (or today's date generally). Do not restart with the existing current.ts.

Epoch hardcoding pattern makes every crash a double failure

All three crashed agents (bear-yosher, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew) likely share this pattern: the watcher encodes a specific calendar epoch, so a process death means the script is also stale on restart. This amplifies crash severity.

SDK should provide a `nextMarketOpenEpoch(tzOffset, openHHMM, closeHHMM)` helper returning the next future session epoch, making watcher scripts date-agnostic and restart-safe by construction.

Swing-Nikita

SSV blocked by zero inventory. sNVDA sub-threshold and narrowing. All stocks market-hours blocked. No resting intents at

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 or crypto buy-dip ≥1.5%

SSV: zero LP inventory on every wake since w25 (can't post a sell with no position); sNVDA: -1.12% vs -1.5% threshold, narrowing across w27–w30 — not a near-miss; all stock signals: UTC 04:30 is pre-market (US opens 13:30 UTC). No asset crossed threshold w24–w30.

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (primary, time-based, ~524 min)

New sNVDA sell intent in open book (early trigger if dip deepens before open)

All 5 settled deals via LP-Maker-Matheus; deep sNVDA/sAAPL inventory; 102 deals, ok health

Primary fallback dynamically targets US market open (13:30 UTC) + 5 min buffer — correctly aligned to when stock signals can resolve

Early trigger fires on new sNVDA sell intent — appropriate proxy for dip deepening without needing an oracle RPC on each poll

Min-floor of 30 min prevents over-polling if MARKET_OPEN_MS is in the past

Watch loop is zero-LLM and cheap (readOpenIntents only); seen-set correctly ignores pre-existing intents

Early trigger relies on a NEW sNVDA sell intent appearing — if dip crosses -1.5% but no new LP intent is posted (e.g. LP updates rate in-place), agent waits unt

No early-wake path for SSV inventory recovery — if LP posts a fresh SSV sell intent, agent misses the signal until open

sNVDA early-wake proxy is indirect

fireWake depends on a new sNVDA sell intent appearing in the book. If the dip deepens to threshold but LP-Maker-Matheus updates its existing intent rather than posting a new one, or if no LP is active, swing-nikita waits until market open — potentially missing the entry.

In the watch loop, fetch sNVDA oracle mid and compute % vs trailing average; fireWake('sNVDA dislocation ≥1.5%') directly rather than inferring from intent flow.

Vulture-Andrew

Summary: Now 915 min dark (+60 min since prior at 855 min) — no operator restart signal, confirmed hard crash unchanged. armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null: not a scheduled rest. All bait intents expired while down (open_intents=0), 0 tokens burned in 5h window, settled_deals frozen at 38. LP-Maker's full 10-intent equity/crypto book (sNVDA, sMSFT, sAAPL

Vulture-Andrew has been dead for 915 min with no restart; every bait intent expired and the 5h token burn is $0. LP-Maker's 10-intent equity book (sNVDA, sMSFT, sAAPL) will be stale at today's US market open — the single most likely ≥1% edge event of the day — and vulture is offline to take it. Operator restart is the only unblocking action.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null at 915 min — process dead since ~06-10T14:36 (w67, last wake). Not a logic/mispricing failure; agent was actively managing quotes (4 cancels + 4 fresh posts at w66, deals 98/99 filled at w63 +$0.28 edge) immediately before crash. No new deals or toke

Sound reasoning, solving the right problem — but irrelevant while crashed. Pre-crash wakes show disciplined execution: honeypot blacklist enforced (779/836/869), quote hygiene via check-my-quotes between wakes, mandatory cancel-and-repost when edge eroded below 0.5% floor (w62: intent 881 cancelled at 0.43%), duplicate detection (w64/w65). The logic was working correctly; the process is simply dea

scan-edges poll every 30s: fires on any new takeable intent ≥1% edge not in seenEdgeIds

pre-expiry: fires ~5 min before soonest own-intent expiry

check-my-quotes: fires when any live quote erodes below cancel floor or is undercut

MISSING: none of these fire — process is dead (armed=false/pidAlive=false)

8 of 8 recent settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker swaps; 10 active intents covering sNVDA, sMSFT, sAAPL, BTC, ETH, SSV — exact match for vulture's

Posts delivered swaps vulture could scan; armed and counting down to US open — likely to post fresh equity swaps post-13:30 UTC.

Posts delivered swaps on dislocation fades; 5 deals, health ok — occasional scan-edge target.

Posts binaries vulture could take if near-decided; deal #75 expiry status unclear.

Unmeasurable: process dead since w67, watcher blind to book for 915 min. High-probability missed window: any LP-Maker sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL quote that drifted ≥1% after 06-10T14:36. sNVDA is especially likely given options #118 (call, ~17:37 UTC Jun 11) and #119 (put, ~18:31 UTC Jun 11) expire today — underlying oracle moves around those strikes would stale LP-Maker's sNVDA intents directly into vultu

Zero-LLM: scan-edges and check-my-quotes are pure tool calls, no token burn in the watcher loop

Fires on the right signal: ≥1% takeable edge is exactly vulture's action threshold

Quote hygiene integrated: check-my-quotes cancel trigger prevents free pick-off between wakes

Honeypot pre-seeding hardcoded (779/836/869) — watcher never fires on confirmed honeypots

Pre-expiry trigger prevents own-intent expiry waste

2h fallback present; 30s poll cadence appropriate for a liquidity-opportunist

seenEdgeIds is in-memory only — newly refused intents from last session are lost on restart (minor: agent re-evaluates and re-refuses, but wastes one LLM wake p

No process-level crash detection or self-restart; once dead, nothing revives it

Persist seenEdgeIds to a local JSON file (read on startup, append on new refusal) so crash-restart doesn't re-expose freshly refused honeypots to the ≥1% trigger — one extra wake per session saved per refused intent.

Process dead 915 min — operator restart required

armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null since ~06-10T14:36. All 7 bait intents expired. LP-Maker's 10-intent equity book + US market open today is the highest-value opportunity window since the last crash — vulture cannot act.

Operator: restart the vulture-andrew process. On restart, watcher self-arms immediately (2h fallback) and scan-edges will catch any ≥1% LP-Maker equity drift from US open.

seenEdgeIds resets on crash-restart

In-memory Set means newly refused intents (beyond pre-seeded 779/836/869) are forgotten across crashes. Low severity since agent re-evaluates and re-refuses, but costs one LLM wake per rediscovery.

Persist refused IDs to /agent/state/refused-edges.json; read on startup, append on new refusal.

No auto-restart for crashed agents

Three agents (vulture-andrew 915m, bear-yosher 1112m, stacker-massimo 962m) have been hard-crashed for 15+ hours with no platform-level recovery. Each crash requires manual operator intervention.

Add a fleet-level process supervisor (e.g. PM2, systemd unit, or a watchdog cron) that detects armed=false/pidAlive=false and restarts the agent process automatically after a configurable grace period.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

LP HUB HOLDS, 3 CRASHES DEEPEN

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew(crashed), Rebalancer-Lior, 0xBd6a…9863, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita}

12/12 book live; 103 deals; taker-limited not maker-limited — 3 of 6 counterpart

FROZEN — Bear-Yosher crashed 1112m; Mimic-Ljuba empty board 13 consecutive wakes

SUPPLY DRY — writer nextFallbackMin=1144 (~19h silence); taker holds expiring #1

NEVER STARTED — both address=null, 0 wakes, 0 IndexBasket intents in 1383-intent

Bear-Yosher hard crash (armed=false, 1112m dark)

BinaryBet market completely frozen: Mimic-Ljuba starved across 13 consecutive wakes (w60–w72, openExposureUsd=0); deal #

Mimic-Ljuba: all 16 settled deals ↔ Bear-Yosher; 0 BinaryBets on book w60–w72; deal #75 still tagged 'live' despite expiry ~10h past

Bear-Yosher crash eliminates the only binary-bet supply

Arb-Hunter-Tom deal counter frozen at 11 for 46+ consecutive waits (w197–w204) — even after oracle gap dissolved at w203

Arb-Hunter: 'No fill' every wake w197–w204; oracle 'caught up' by w203 removing direction block; 0 binary bets on book confirmed across entire window; counter at 11 unchanged

Vulture-Andrew crash (armed=false, 915m dark)

LP-Maker loses its most prolific equity/crypto taker (38 historical deals); sNVDA, sMSFT, sAAPL mispricing windows on LP

Vulture-Andrew: last fill deals 98/99 at w63 (+$0.28 edge, 4 cancels + 4 fresh posts at w66); 0 new deals or token spend since w67 (~Jun 10 14:36 UTC); LP-Maker equity slots uncontested by Vulture

Index-Maker never initialized (22 consecutive null cycles, address=null)

Index-Taker has zero IndexBasket intents to audit or act on; both agents permanently inert with no recovery path absent

Both agents: address=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0, wake_script_source=null; 0 IndexBasket intents anywhere in 1383-intent funnel history

Option-Writer-Matheus disciplined silence (~19h, nextFallbackMin=1144, engine 1 zero open intents)

Option-Taker supply dry while holding two sNVDA options expiring today — #118 call (strike $203.69) at 17:37 UTC and #11

Option-Taker: 0 audited options on book for 201m; all 4 settled deals ↔ option-writer; writer engine 1 monitor-only wakes w38–w77 (39 consecutive); 'custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus' in recent de

Stacker-Massimo crash (armed=false, 844m+) with hardcoded stale epochs

BTC accumulation via sMSFT-sale offline since Jun 10 12:05 UTC; naive restart will misfire immediately (MARKET_OPEN_EPOC

current.ts: MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200, MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 (both Jun 10); settled_deals frozen at 2 since w22; 0 token spend in 5h window

3 hard crashes unattended — 2871 combined agent-minutes dark

Bear-Yosher (1112m), Vulture-Andrew (915m), Stacker-Massimo (844m+) all armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null — confirmed hard crashes, not scheduled rests. No operator restart across any three across multiple observer cycles. Bear-Yosher's absence freezes the entire BinaryBet market and blocks settlement of expired deal #75. Vulture-Andrew's absence leaves LP-Maker equity book uncontested. Stacker-Massimo requires epoch patch

Bear-Yosher: last wake w41 Jun 10 11:17 UTC; Vulture-Andrew: last wake w67 ~Jun 10 14:36 UTC; Stacker-Massimo: last wake w27 Jun 10 12:05 UTC; all three: 0 token spend in 5h window, 0 operator restart signals across consecutive runs

Restart all three; patch stacker-massimo MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH/MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH to Jun 11 epochs first; verify bear-yosher can trigger settlement on expired deal #75 on restart

sNVDA options #118 + #119 expire today — ~11h to first expiry

Option-Taker-Matheus holds sNVDA call #118 (strike $203.69, prem $0.25, exp ~17:37 UTC Jun 11) and put #119 (strike $201.75, prem $0.23, exp ~18:31 UTC Jun 11). Option-Writer has ~19h silence ahead (nextFallbackMin=1144). Combined $0.48 premium is at risk if both expire OTM. The 'custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus' entry in recent deals suggests one settlement occurred this cycle — verify which contract and whether the other requires

Option-Taker summary: 'holds sNVDA call #118...put #119...unchanged since w26'; writer nextFallbackMin=1144; taker nextFallbackMin=650; 'custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus' in recent deal list

Evaluate sNVDA spot price vs $203.69 / $201.75 strikes before 17:37 UTC Jun 11; confirm which contract settled; ensure settlement path is exercisable for remaining live option

Bear-Yosher deal #75 expired ~10h ago — capital locked, no settlement path

Deal #75 (BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba, betExpiry epoch 1781139624 ~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) expired approximately 10 hours ago with no settlement call. Bear-Yosher crash blocks the winning side from claiming. Mimic-Ljuba (putative loser, openExposureUsd=0) has no incentive to initiate. Capital remains locked on-chain in a resolved-but-unclaimed bet.

Bear-Yosher settled_deals frozen at 17; deal #75 'live' tag persists; bear-yosher armed=false since before expiry epoch; mimic-ljuba openExposureUsd=0 confirmed w71/w72

Restart bear-yosher — agent should detect expired deal on first wake and call settlement; alternatively, operator manually triggers on-chain settlement for deal #75

Arb-Hunter-Tom frozen at 11 deals for 46+ consecutive waits — binary bet supply is the bottleneck

Oracle gap dissolved at w203 (23bps → 0), removing the previously suspected direction-block. Deal counter unchanged at 11 across w197–w204. The actual bottleneck is binary bet supply: bear-yosher (sole binary bet poster) has been crashed for 1112m. Arb-Hunter's logic and watcher are sound — it is correctly waiting in a market with no inventory.

Arb-Hunter: counter at 11 unchanged across 46+ waits; oracle 'caught up' w203; 0 binary bets on book confirmed; all 9 visible settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (8) + Rebalancer-Lior (1) — swap fills only

Restart bear-yosher to restore binary bet supply; no changes needed to arb-hunter

Index-Maker + Index-Taker: 22 null cycles — operator initialization required

Both agents have address=null, 0 wakes, 0 token spend across all 22 observer cycles. Zero IndexBasket intents in the full 1383-intent funnel. Not a crash — never started. Represents a complete untapped market segment.

Both summaries: 'address=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0, wake_script_source=null across all 22 cycles; 0 IndexBasket intents in full funnel history'

Operator: provision wallets, deploy wake scripts, initialize index-maker and index-taker — no SDK/core blocker identified

LP-Maker full book 12/12 — fleet hub healthy, BTC gap resolved

BTC ask gap (flagged last run) resolved at w88 (intent #1278 posted at +15.1bps). 12/12 quotes live across ETH, BTC, SSV, sNVDA, sMSFT, sAAPL. Deals ticked 96→103 (+7 this cycle). 5 reliable counterparties. Deal velocity is taker-limited, not maker-limited — thin taker side is a market condition, not an LP quality issue.

LP-Maker summary: 'BTC ask gap RESOLVED in w88, 12/12 full book achieved and held through w89/w90'; 10 of 12 open-book slots LP-Maker; w85–w90 show 0 fills despite tight quotes — taker drought confirmed

None — maintain current configuration; deal velocity improves as crashed counterparties restart

Restart bear-yosher immediately — single highest-leverage restart: unlocks BinaryBet market for Mimic-Ljuba and Arb-Hunter-Tom, triggers settlement of expired deal #75, and restores the only binary bet supply in the fleet

Restart vulture-andrew — restores equity/crypto discount hunting against LP-Maker's full 12-intent book; 38 historical deals at +$0.28/fill confirms taker efficiency; LP equity slots are currently uncontested

Patch stacker-massimo MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH + MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH to Jun 11 13:30/20:00 UTC epochs, then restart — naive restart on stale Jun 10 hardcoded times will misfire and burn budget outside market hours

Evaluate sNVDA spot vs option-taker-matheus strikes ($203.69 call / $201.75 put) before 17:37 UTC Jun 11 — confirm which of #118/#119 is live, verify in/out-of-money status, and ensure settlement call is ready if either expires ITM

Provision and initialize index-maker + index-taker — 22 null cycles represent a fully untapped market segment with zero IndexBasket intents ever posted; no SDK blocker, pure operator initialization gap

Marginally better — LP-Maker ticked 96→103 deals (+7 new fills, Arb-Hunter-Tom and Vulture-Andrew both active takers this cycle); three hard crashes (bear-yosher 1112m, stacker-massimo 962m, vulture-andrew 913m) unchanged; new time-sensitive element: sNVDA options #118/#119 held by option-taker-math

Three hard crashes still offline (bear-yosher 1112m, stacker-massimo 962m, vulture-andrew 913m) — no operator restart across all three since prior run

LP-Maker is the only active liquidity hub: 103 deals, 10 open intents, $25.97 burn/5h — 12 of 12 open-book slots are LP-Maker or external wallets, zero internal diversity

Arb-Hunter-Tom deal counter frozen at 11 for 40+ consecutive waits — SSV oracle-leads-CEX block persists, structural problem not resolved

sNVDA call #118 (~17:37 UTC Jun 11) and put #119 (~18:31 UTC Jun 11) held by option-taker-matheus expire today — time-critical evaluation window

US market open ~13:30 UTC Jun 11 is the unlock event for both rebalancer-lior and swing-nikita — both armed and counting down

Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba deal #75 (expiry epoch ~Jun 11 00:58 UTC, now 10+ hours past) still logged as 'live' — on-chain settlement status unconfirmed

Deal counter shows 11 — is this still the frozen value from w202 (40+ consecutive waits), or has a new fill occurred? Does the SSV oracle-leads-CEX block (oracle +23bps over CEX, no above-CEX intent on book) still hold, or has LP-Maker post

Still hard-crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 1112m dark) — have the two Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba 'live' deals (including #75 with expiry epoch ~Jun 11 00:58 UTC, now well past) settled on-chain, and is there any operator restart signal t

Expected 22nd consecutive null cycle — confirm: any wallet provisioning event, any IndexBasket intent posted anywhere in the 1383-intent funnel, or any operator initialization signal?

Structurally inert while index-maker remains uninitialized — confirm another null cycle: zero wakes, zero tokens, no IndexBasket intents on book to audit or take?

Deals ticked 95→103 (+8 since last summary) with Arb-Hunter-Tom and Vulture-Andrew as active takers — are all 10 current open intents fresh/non-duplicate, and which token pairs drove the +8 fills this cycle?

Bear-Yosher deal #75 (expired epoch ~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) still appeared as 'live' last run — has it finally settled or is the detail view still lagging? Did mimic-ljuba take any new counterparty positions, and what is the current openExposure

Intent #1318 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, 258 min remaining on open book) — has it been filled by any taker (LP-Maker, arb-hunter, external), or is it still resting? Any new wake or SSV momentum rotation since w22?

sNVDA call #118 (strike $203.69, expiry ~17:37 UTC Jun 11) and put #119 (strike $201.75, expiry ~18:31 UTC Jun 11) expire TODAY — has option-taker-matheus woken to evaluate in-the-money status, and has option-writer-matheus posted any new a

Recent deals feed shows Option-Writer-Matheus ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus settled — is this the sNVDA pair from option-taker's holdings, confirming a fill? And have either Engine 1 (33+ consecutive monitor-only wakes) or Engine 2 (drift <±0.5%,

Holding sAAPL @ $290.79 with stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 — 950m since last wake, nextFallbackMin=851 confirms alive and waiting; has sAAPL breached the band or has any mispriced option/binary appeared on book this cycle to trigger a posi

Countdown to ~14:00 UTC Jun 11 fallback continues (nextFallbackMin=491, last wake 368m ago) — has the 13:30 UTC watch-loop trigger fired yet, and did rebalancer-lior execute a new capital slice (sMSFT approval was pending per prior summary)

Hard-crashed 962m (wake script hardcodes stale Jun 10 MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000, both now expired) — any operator restart signal? If restarted today, would the stale guard pass immediately and trigger a

Armed for US market open ~13:30 UTC Jun 11 (nextFallbackMin=581, up from 524 last run — confirm not a regression) — has the market-open trigger fired yet, and has sNVDA stretched past the -1.5% threshold that would unlock a buy slice?

Hard-crashed 913m, all bait intents expired, open_intents=0 — any operator restart signal? With LP-Maker's full 10-intent book active (ETH, sMSFT, sNVDA, BTC, SSV, sAAPL pairs), which specific intents would vulture-andrew target as misprice

Restart bear-yosher (1112m dark), stacker-massimo (962m dark), and vulture-andrew (913m dark) — all three confirmed hard crashes (armed=false, pidAlive=false); no self-recovery possible, operator acti

Initialize index-maker and index-taker — 22nd consecutive null cycle, zero IndexBasket intents in the 1383-intent funnel, an entire market segment is dead with no self-start path

option-taker-matheus: sNVDA call #118 and put #119 expire today at ~17:37 and ~18:31 UTC Jun 11 — verify the agent will wake and evaluate in-the-money status before expiry; 678m since last wake is a c

arb-hunter-tom: after 40+ consecutive waits with oracle-leads-CEX structural block, diagnose whether the watcher should filter specifically for above-CEX-priced intents rather than any book presence —

mimic-ljuba: resolve Bear-Yosher deal #75 accounting (expired epoch ~Jun 11 00:58 UTC, 10+ hours past) — confirm on-chain settlement so openExposureUsd reflects true position before any new bets are t