account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary bet has taker side in CEX money. No new intents on book. All USDC-payable swaps priced at taker loss.

new intent on book; bet #32 near expiry if BTC > $64k (30-min fallback)

Summary: W4 swap (+57bps, 2 SSV ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, $45.76 PnL) remains the sole settled deal. W5–W11 were all correct disciplined passes: BTC ranged $480–$635 below $64k strike (bet #32 never triggered) and no swap cleared the 10bps minimum. Watcher died mid-W11 (log truncated at 'Corrected watcher fallback fro...') — now dark 289min, up from 229min last run, with a

Arb-hunter-tom is dead and cannot self-restart (nextFallbackMin=null), but BTC ~$63,150 is ~$850 below the hardcoded $64k strike so bet #32 would not have fired anyway — the market cost of this crash is currently $0, not rising. Risk mounts only if BTC rallies toward $64k while the agent stays dark.

Watcher process died mid-W11 during a watcher-script edit ('Corrected watcher fallback fro...' truncated); no pidAlive, no fallback timer, no self-recovery path. Same kill pattern as 7 other agents in the fleet (SDK epidemic). BTC $63,150 vs $64k strike = $850 gap — bet #32 CEX condition unsatisfied

Sound and on-mission through W11: each pass cited a quantitative reason (BTC $X below $Y strike, swap taker-negative at oracle). The agent is solving the right problem correctly — it is the platform (watcher process kill) that is broken, not the reasoning. The truncated log in W11 suggests the crash happened during a post-wake watcher-script write, not a logic error.

New intent posted to book (fires immediately)

Bet #32 enters 30-min expiry window AND CEX BTC ≥ $64,320 (strike + 0.5%)

MISSING: dynamic rescan of open binary bets — ANCHORS is hard-coded to bet #32 from W11; any new binary bets posted since W11 are invisible to the watcher forev

Only proven counterparty (W4 swap deal); currently has 12 open swap intents expiring in 55–58min — arb-hunter could snipe if alive and edge

alive, 12 open intents, but watcher dead

Posts options; arb-hunter explicitly excluded options from mission scope (W10: 'New Option template not in mission scope')

alive, 3 options expiring imminently — i

Also a pure taker; no maker surface to cross against

None confirmed for bet #32: BTC held $635–$850 below $64k strike the entire 289-min outage — CEX trigger condition unsatisfied throughout. LP-Maker swaps: W9–W11 established no USDC-payable swap cleared 10bps; no evidence that changed. Partially unmeasurable for intents posted after W11 (watcher blind), but no structural reason to expect a new arb window opened while BTC stayed range-bound below $

30-min hard fallback is correct for 30–60min binary windows (comment 'NEVER 2h' shows deliberate calibration)

CEX price gated behind the expiry window check — avoids burning Coinbase calls every tick

New-intent trigger correctly handles the swap-snipe fallback surface without polling liveness of every intent

0.5% CEX margin guard (MIN_CEX_MARGIN) provides meaningful buffer against oracle latency noise

Baseline seen-set on first tick prevents firing on already-known intents

ANCHORS array is statically hard-coded at wake-write time — any binary bet posted after W11 is permanently invisible until manual restart regenerates the array

No restart-on-death hook: if the process is killed (as happened here), nextFallbackMin=null means zero recovery — a watchdog or supervisor restart would have ca

Fetch open binary bets dynamically inside the watch loop (once per cycle, cheap read) and rebuild ANCHORS at runtime instead of hard-coding from the last wake scan — this eliminates the stale-anchor blind spot and survives across wakes with

Watcher process killed with no self-recovery (fleet-wide epidemic)

Same armed=false / pidAlive=false / nextFallbackMin=null pattern as 7 other agents. Watcher died mid-W11 during a script-write operation; the SDK provides no watchdog, supervisor, or restart-on-exit mechanism. Manual intervention is the only recovery path today.

Add a process supervisor (e.g. a parent process that respawns current.ts on non-zero exit) to the core SDK watcher runtime, or write a nextFallbackMin before any destructive watcher-script edit so a crash leaves a scheduled restart behind.

Static ANCHORS array becomes stale after each crash

current.ts hard-codes bet #32 from W11's scan. After a restart, the agent will re-scan and rewrite the watcher — but if new binary bets are posted between the crash and the restart, this wake cycle misses them entirely.

Move binary-bet discovery into the watch loop: read open intents once per tick, filter for BinaryBet template, compute checkAtUnix dynamically. Eliminates the stale hard-code and makes the watcher self-healing after a restart.

Bear-Yosher

Short ETH/BTC by default with leveraged Perpetuals (short- and long-term horizons), recycling realized profits into a stock basket; halt and cancel only when price climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Summary: Crashed 474min (now 476min), armed=false, pidAlive=false — watcher daemon died and missed the 4h fallback for the second consecutive cycle (was 416min last run, now 476min; the gap confirms no recovery). Intent 48 (BELOW bet, baseline $1,682.93) has left the book (open_intents=0) but the dead watcher never fired. ETH near $1,651 (inferred from Option-Writer

Crashed 474min, missed its own 4h fallback (SDK daemon death, same as 9/12 others). ETH at ~$1,651 is ~1.9% below the $1,682.93 BELOW-bet baseline — the bear thesis is directionally correct, adverse trigger ($1,708.18) not hit — but the agent is dark and cannot post any follow-on position or take the now-expired intent 48 fill.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; 4h fallback configured in wake script (fallbackMs: 4*3600_000) but daemon died before triggering; identical failure across 9/12 agents (arb-hunter 407min, stacker 404min, rebalancer 556min, swing 793min, etc.) — SDK watcher persistence failure, not

Sound reasoning, solving the right problem — but solving a problem it can no longer execute on. Wake log at 06-08T18:42 is coherent: identified no aligned binary, posted BELOW bet (intent 48), started tech basket via sNVDA. The short thesis anchor ($1,682.93 baseline, +1.5% adverse stop) is well-calibrated. Problem is the watcher daemon died immediately after, stranding the agent for 8h. No churn

Intent 48 leaves book (ownIntentResolved)

New tech-stock sell intent appears (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT posterGives)

MISSING: Intent 48 DID leave the book (open_intents=0) — trigger condition met, but watcher already dead; wake never fired

Took bear's BELOW bet (BinaryBet↔Mimic-Ljuba settled); would take new BELOW bets if bear reposted at updated baseline

Filled bear's swap (Swap↔LP-Maker settled); can fill ETH/BTC short-side swaps from deep inventory

alive, 24 deals, health ok — but 12 swap

Writing ETH puts (strike $1,651.63, 19min TTL); bear's mission is perpetuals not options, but put buying aligns with short thesis if bear ad

BinaryBet#89 ETH<$1700 at 803min TTL — bear could take or post aligned BinaryBets; but polymarket-ljuba is the maker here, not a taker

Intent 48 (BELOW bet at $1,682.93) resolved (open_intents=0→confirmed left book) while watcher was dead — bear could not check fill vs expiry or post follow-on. Option-Writer's put at $1,651.63 (19min TTL) aligns with bear's short thesis but bear has no option-taking capability in current mission scope. Polymarket-Ljuba's BET#89 (ETH<$1700) is open 803min — bear posted an aligned BELOW bet last wa

Intent-resolution trigger (ownIntentResolved on intent 48) correctly fires on the primary pending action

ETH adverse trigger anchored to actual baseline price at wake time ($1,682.93), not a hardcoded constant — self-updating per wake

Tech-sell scan uses newMatches (delta-only) to avoid re-firing on stale intents

Fallback configured but daemon dies before it fires — no daemon-health guard or self-rearming

No downside trigger: ETH moving favorably (bear thesis gaining) doesn't wake the agent to press the advantage — only adverse move wakes it

seen set initialized on first pass (baseline), meaning if watcher restarts it misses intents that appeared during the crash window

Cut fallback from 4h to 60–90min: given the fleet-wide daemon death pattern, a shorter fallback is the only practical safety net until the SDK persistence bug is fixed. A 4h fallback that never fires is equivalent to no fallback.

Watcher daemon dies before fallback fires (fleet-wide)

9/12 agents exhibit armed=false, pidAlive=false with elapsed time well past their configured fallback. Bear's 4h fallback was set but daemon died; same pattern in arb-hunter (407min), stacker (404min), rebalancer (556min), swing (793min). SDK watcher persistence layer is losing process across restar

Investigate sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js armWatcher/runWatchLoop for unhandled promise rejections or process exit on async errors; add a supervisor or systemd-style restart policy for watcher processes

Intent 48 resolved unobserved — no follow-on action possible

open_intents dropped to 0 (intent 48 left book) while watcher was dead. Bear cannot determine if it was filled (profit) or expired (miss) without a wake. The standing BELOW position may be gone without a replacement posted.

On next manual restart, check intent 48 fill/expiry and re-post BELOW bet at current ETH baseline if expired; update ETH_BASELINE to current price (~$1,651)

Fallback interval too long given daemon instability

4h fallback is theoretically correct for a patient short-thesis agent, but the daemon reliably dies in <2h. A 4h fallback in a crash-prone environment is effectively no fallback.

Reduce fallbackMs to 60 * 60_000 (1h) in next wake script until SDK stability is confirmed; revisit after core fix

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

12 expiring quotes must be cancelled+reposted. ETH and BTC oracles dropped ~$2.45 and ~$17 during execution, flipping in

new counterparty swap OR 30min (quotes expire ~03:02 UTC)

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

deal #3 expires OR new ≥3pp BinaryBet appears (or 24h fallback)

Summary: Complete reversal from prior summary: agent went from dead (0 wakes, armed=false, null script) to 7 wakes and 1 settled deal (Deal #3, BinaryBet ↔ Bear-Yosher) this cycle. Initialized, operational, and holding an active position. However, the pricing logic uses a hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 flat prior — the agent took the 'above $65k in 24h' side when BTC oracle

Agent is live (7 wakes, 1 deal, armed, pid alive) — a full reversal from last run. Deal #3's claimed +22pp edge is likely illusory: FAIR_PROB is hardcoded at 0.5 regardless of oracle distance, so every out-of-the-money binary looks like an edge. The one realized deal may be a losing position.

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own text), yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM.

Sound discipline (one-deliberate-move rule, hold rather than churn, waits for expiry signal) — but solving the wrong problem. The edge gate uses a 50/50 flat prior for a clearly directional binary, so it will systematically take deep-OTM positions and call them profitable. The reasoning is coherent but the pricing model is wrong.

Deal #3 expiry at DEAL_EXPIRY_TS (2026-06-09T14:10Z)

New BinaryBet on book with takerEdgePp ≥ 3pp (vs flat FAIR_PROB=0.5)

MISSING: oracle-adjusted fair probability — watcher fires on 'edge vs 0.5' not 'edge vs calibrated prob'

Already traded (Deal #3); posts BTC directional BinaryBets that mimic-ljuba takes; missions complement

armed=true, 18min fallback imminent — wa

Both trade BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba also posts small-shade binaries mimic-ljuba could mirror

armed=true but nextFallbackMin=1284 — ef

Picks off mispriced bets; could take mimic-ljuba's self-posted directional intents

Posts Options, not BinaryBets — different template, no structural overlap

armed, 10 deals — active but wrong templ

None identifiable from current data — watcher is reading the live book and evaluating new BinaryBets each loop. However, the flat-prior edge filter may have passed bad intents (like Deal #3) while the oracle-calibrated filter would have blocked them. Missed opportunities on the downside (bad bets accepted) are more likely than missed good ones.

Hardcodes DEAL_ID + DEAL_EXPIRY_TS — correct single-deal tracking pattern

Fires on deal expiry OR new high-edge bet — dual trigger fits hold-then-rotate mission

newMatches() pattern avoids re-evaluating already-seen intents

24h fallback is proportionate to deal horizon

FAIR_PROB=0.5 is hardcoded flat prior — correct only for a coin-flip binary; any bet with a known oracle price has a non-flat fair distribution

No oracle-distance calibration: takerEdgePp = (0.5 - takerProb)*100 will mark any bet where taker puts up <50% as 'edge', including deep OTM positions

Edge floor of 3pp vs wrong fair value gives a false gate

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with an oracle-calibrated fair probability: read the current oracle price and the bet's strike/direction, compute fair prob via a simple log-normal or historical vol estimate, then derive takerEdgePp against that. One

Flat FAIR_PROB=0.5 invalidates edge calculations for directional binaries

hasEdge() uses (0.5 - takerProb)*100 as edge. For a BTC above $65k bet with oracle at $63,383, true fair prob is ~12–18%; the flat prior makes the bet look like +32–38pp edge when true edge may be negative. Deal #3 was likely taken at negative EV.

Read oracle price + bet strike + direction in the wake loop; compute fair prob via historical vol (e.g., 80% annualized → ~15% daily σ → lognormal CDF for strike distance); use that as FAIR_PROB instead of 0.5. Can be inlined in hasEdge() with a belt.tools.readOracle call.

Self-posted intent (w1) untracked by watcher

w1 posted a directional BTC bet as maker; the watcher only monitors Deal #3 expiry and incoming taker opportunities — no monitoring of whether the self-posted intent got filled or expired.

After each self-post, store the intentId in watcher state and add a fireWake trigger when that intent settles or expires.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Summary: Seventh consecutive dead cycle (last_wake_min_ago 471→531, +60min elapsed, wakes=1 still). Critical update: intent #28 settled passively — LP-Maker-Matheus filled the BTC swap while the watcher was already dead; no active wake detected the resolution. open_intents=0 confirmed. The follow-up momentum decision (add to BTC / rotate / cash) never executed. Wake

531 min dark; one deal settled passively via LP-Maker ($16.27 realized PnL from BTC swap), but the agent never knew. The wake script trigger is now a dead letter — intent #28 resolved, and INTENT_ID is hardcoded. Even rearming the process would not unblock the mission: a new wake script with a price/time trigger is required before any further execution is possible.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false since ~06-08T17:47 (531min). SDK persistence failure — armWatcher process died before either the ownIntentResolved('28') trigger or the 90min fallback could fire. Same epidemic as 9/12 agents this cycle. The deal (LP-Maker↔Momentum-Nikita, Swap) settled on-chain p

The single wake was sound: established baseline prices, identified BTC as strongest mover, posted a ~25% starter swap (intent #28) — disciplined momentum logic. But the wake script is now solving the wrong problem: it watches for intent #28 resolution, which already happened. The first step was correct; the scaffolding to follow through was never built. Sound initial reasoning, permanently stale t

ownIntentResolved('28') — fires when intent #28 fills or expires

90min fallback (never fired — process died first)

MISSING: trigger for the follow-up decision after #28 resolved (price leadership re-check, rotation signal, or new intent resolution)

Already filled intent #28 (BTC swap); primary liquidity source for delivered swaps on any asset momentum-nikita would target

alive (health: ok, 24 deals) but watcher

Fades dislocations; if momentum-nikita concentrates into a strong mover, swing-nikita might take the other side on reversion — complementary

DCA swaps could cross with momentum concentrations on overlapping assets

Unmeasurable for market-wide opportunities (watcher blind to book while dead). Confirmed missed: the follow-up momentum decision after BTC intent #28 settled — whether to pyramid, rotate to another leader, or cash — never executed. LP-Maker posted 12 fresh swaps since the crash; at least some likely crossed momentum-nikita's target assets, but the agent couldn't evaluate or take them.

Correct trigger for the first wake's specific intent: ownIntentResolved('28') is zero-LLM and precise

90min fallback covers the 1h RFQ window with buffer — appropriate cadence for the original intent

runWatchLoop pattern is correct; no sub-minute polling

INTENT_ID is hardcoded to '28' — the trigger is now permanently stale since open_intents=0 and the deal settled

No fallback trigger for post-resolution logic: once intent #28 resolves, the script has no path to re-enter the momentum decision loop

The mission requires rotation 'as leadership shifts' and cashing 'when nothing's working' — these decision points have no triggers in the current script; it was

Replace hardcoded INTENT_ID='28' with a dynamic lookup of the agent's latest open intent (or a time/price-movement trigger if open_intents=0), so the watcher advances through the full mission cycle rather than terminating at the first trade

SDK persistence failure — watcher process dies after armWatcher()

Epidemic across 9/12 agents including momentum-nikita. armWatcher() arms correctly but the process exits before any trigger or fallback fires. 531min of total darkness from one wake.

Investigate why the watcher process is not surviving post-armWatcher; add process keepalive or supervisor restart in the SDK wake-watch layer.

Wake script is permanently stale — INTENT_ID='28' trigger is a dead letter

Intent #28 is resolved (open_intents=0, deal settled with LP-Maker). The current current.ts can never advance the mission: even if rearmed, ownIntentResolved('28') would return true immediately and fireWake with no useful context, or the intent is no longer queryable.

Regenerate wake script: replace intent-specific trigger with dynamic ownIntentResolved(latestOpenIntentId) or, if no open intent exists, a price-leadership poll trigger (e.g., strongest-mover change >threshold or fixed 60min cadence). This restores the rotation and cash-out logic the mission require

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: 15th+ consecutive dead cycle — no state change from any prior summary. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, $0.15 lifetime spend (bootstrap only). Option-Writer's put ($1,651.63 strike, 0.1 USDC, 19min TTL as of Step-1) will expire worthless — identical to last cycle's put ($1,654.55, 0.13 USDC) and every

To answer Step-1's urgent question directly: NO mechanism can fire this agent in time. wake_script_source=null means no watcher exists; nextFallbackMin=null means no scheduled recovery; pidAlive=false means no process is running. The Option-Writer's put will expire worthless for the 15th+ consecutive cycle. Only a manual operator bootstrap can unblock this, and the 19min window from Step-1 is almost certainly already closed.

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 lifetime wakes. Agent was never properly initialized past bootstrap. $0.15 spend = bootstrap cost only, no operational wakes ever fired. Missed option-writer puts: $1,654.55/0.13 USDC (last cycle), $1,651.63/0.1 USDC (this

Not assessable — zero wakes, no wake script, no reasoning output of any kind across 15+ cycles. The agent has never operated. Sound or unsound reasoning is unmeasurable until the agent is bootstrapped.

MISSING: no wake script installed (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

MISSING: no watcher process (pidAlive=false, armed=false)

Natural and only counterparty — writes the ETH/BTC puts this agent is designed to evaluate and take; currently active with 12 deals, re-arme

ALIVE — armed=true, 26min fallback, heal

At minimum 2 confirmed misses this run alone: option-writer-matheus put $1,651.63 strike / 0.1 USDC premium (19min TTL, this cycle) and $1,654.55 / 0.13 USDC (17min TTL, last cycle). ITM status unverifiable without ETH oracle price in snapshot, but premium pricing and strike proximity suggest these warranted evaluation. 15+ cycles of option-writer posts, all expired without a single taker evaluati

No wake script exists at all (wake_script_source=null)

Bootstrap the agent with a wake script that polls option-writer-matheus's open intents on a ~5min cadence, evaluates each against ETH/BTC oracle price for ITM status and premium fairness, and fires a deliberate take when criteria are met. I

Agent never bootstrapped past initial $0.15 spend

15+ cycles, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null. Bootstrap ran once (cost $0.15) but never installed a wake script or armed a watcher. This is a core/SDK initialization failure — the agent reached 'bootstrapped' state without a functional watcher being written or registered.

Manual operator intervention required: re-run bootstrap for option-taker-matheus ensuring the wake script is written to disk and the watcher is armed before bootstrap exits. Audit why the initial bootstrap produced $0.15 spend but no wake_script_source — likely the script write step silently failed

Option market structurally frozen — writer active, taker permanently absent

option-writer-matheus has posted puts every cycle (12 total deals, active this cycle with $1,651.63 put). option-taker-matheus has never evaluated a single one. The option market has 0% clearance rate due to sole taker being dead, not due to mispricing.

Prioritize option-taker-matheus bootstrap above all other recovery tasks — it is the single agent that unblocks a live, functioning market segment. option-writer-matheus is working correctly and absorbing ongoing token cost with no payoff.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Mission rule: 'If unfilled at expiry → reprice CHEAPER, never higher.' Stepping down premium from 2.6% to 2% per 'step t

ETH put option (0xf3) resolves or 65min fallback

Summary: W14 call timeout → W15–W16 put repricing fully confirmed. W17 continued the step-down to 0xf3 ($1,651.63 strike, 2.0% / 0.10 USDC, 60-min accept window), now ~17 min from expiry with zero takers. Repricing ladder: 4.4% → 2.6% → 2.0% — disciplined mission compliance. Engine 1 healthy (12 swap deals with LP-Maker, $16.99 realized PnL). Structural option-taker

Engine 1 (70% contrarian swaps) is fully functioning — 12 deals, $16.99 PnL. Engine 2 (option writing) has posted 4 options since W14 and filled 0; Option-Taker-Matheus is dead and no other fleet agent can take ETH puts. The repricing ladder hits the economic floor on the next cycle (~1.5% would yield 0.075 USDC on 5 USDC collateral) with no demand-side fix in sight.

Option-Taker-Matheus health=unknown, 0 deals, absent for 14+ cycles. All 12 of option-writer's settled deals are swaps (Engine 1) with LP-Maker-Matheus. Intents 0xd5, 0xe6, 0xf3 all expired/pending unfilled. No other roster agent has option-taking in mission scope.

Sound reasoning, solving the wrong problem. The repricing ladder (4.4%→2.6%→2.0%) is textbook mission compliance and the logic is internally correct — but the issue is not premium level. It is structural taker absence. Cutting premium 50% does not create a counterparty where none exists. The agent is executing its rule-set perfectly while running against a wall; the fix is fleet-level (revive Opti

ownIntentResolved on 0xf3 (fill or expiry/cancellation)

65-min fallback (accept window 60min + 5min buffer)

MISSING: ETH spot-price move trigger — if ETH drops >2% below strike mid-cycle, agent cannot respond until fallback fires

Designated counterparty; mission is to buy cheap ETH/BTC options via the Option judge

DEAD — health=unknown, 0 deals, absent 1

Values options against Polymarket distributions; could theoretically take a mispriced ETH put — but mission is focused on BinaryBets, not cl

Takes mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries — no option-taking in mission

Swap liquidity provider only; all 12 of option-writer's deals are swap Engine 1 fills with LP-Maker

None — option-writer is a maker-only agent for Engine 2. Engine 1 swap opportunities are being captured via LP-Maker (12 deals). No open bets or intents exist that this agent's mission would direct it to take.

Tracks specific intent 0xf3 via ownIntentResolved — fires correctly on fill or expiry, not on generic book state

65-min fallback aligns precisely to accept window (60min) + 5-min buffer — right cadence for a 60-min accept window

Zero-LLM polling loop; no spurious book-non-empty triggers

No mid-cycle ETH price-move trigger — if ETH drops sharply below strike before expiry, agent is locked out until fallback fires at 65min, possibly missing a can

Add a spot-price guard: if ETH moves >2% below current strike (put goes deep ITM), fire early rather than waiting the full 65-min fallback — this lets the agent cancel and repost at a new OTM strike before the existing option becomes a loss

Option-Taker-Matheus absent for 14+ cycles — fleet has no option buyer

Every ETH option posted since W14 (0xd5, 0xe6, 0xf3) has expired or will expire unfilled. Option-Taker is dead (health=unknown, watcher crashed). Without a taker, Engine 2 generates zero income regardless of premium level.

Revive Option-Taker-Matheus watcher, or extend option-taking capability to Vulture-Andrew / Polymarket-Ljuba whose missions are adjacent. This is the single highest-leverage move for Engine 2.

Premium approaching economic floor with no taker in sight — consider pausing Engine 2

Repricing trajectory: 4.4% → 2.6% → 2.0% → next ~1.5% (0.075 USDC on 5 USDC collateral). At some threshold the option isn't worth the collateral lock-up. Mission should define a floor (e.g. 1%) and pause Engine 2 until a taker appears rather than burning collateral cycles.

Add a mission rule: if premium steps below X% and Option-Taker is confirmed absent from the book, suspend Engine 2 for N wakes and redeploy collateral to Engine 1 swaps.

Monotone put direction since W15 — call side not retried

W14 attempted a call (timeout), W15–W17 all puts. ETH has drifted down so puts may be appropriate, but mission allows both. If ETH stabilizes or recovers, a call could find different demand or test if the call timeout was transient.

On the next write cycle after 0xf3 expires, re-evaluate call vs put based on current ETH trend, not by defaulting to the last successful instrument type.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Highest-edge near-even maker candidate: ETH$1700 Jun9 edge=10.3%, $124k liquidity. Shade 60.3%-1.5%=58.8%. Exposure $10+

intent#32 or #89 fills/expires, or new takeable BinaryBet/Option on book (fallback June 9 20:00 UTC)

Intent #32 (BTC<$64k/Jun9, implied 0.617, 10 USDC) and #89 (ETH<$1700/Jun9, implied 0.588, 10 USDC) — both Polymarket-grounded with positive edge — remain open with 0 takers across 337min since W2. arb-hunter-tom (natural BinaryBet taker) is crashed 347min. No other active agent has a BinaryBet-taki

ownIntentResolved(#32) — BTC<$64k Jun9 filled or expired

ownIntentResolved(#89) — ETH<$1700 Jun9 filled or expired

T-5min pre-expiry: nowSec >= 1781020800-300 (15:55 UTC Jun9) — fires once via preExpireFired flag

newMatches: new BinaryBet/Option from non-self poster appears on book

Mission: take near-decided binaries on lagged oracle — both #32 and #89 are exactly its target

Swap-only maker; no BinaryBet-taking mission

Writes options, does not take BinaryBets

Mission includes taking near-decided binaries, but crashed

T-5min trigger is present, correct, and guarded by preExpireFired flag — fires exactly once at 15:55 UTC Jun9

Both own intents monitored individually via ownIntentResolved(#32) and ownIntentResolved(#89) — catches fill or expiry

New-takeable scan filters non-self BinaryBet/Option intents — directly serves the secondary mission

60s poll cadence — appropriate for a time-bounded expiry watcher without being abusive

Fallback at +4h post-expiry (20:00 UTC) is correct — agent needs to reassess after settlement window

preExpireFired is a runtime boolean — resets to false if process restarts within the 5min pre-expiry window, causing a duplicate fireWake (benign, but worth not

No explicit check for whether intents #32/#89 are already settled/cancelled at startup — if they expired while watcher was being written, first ownIntentResolve

arb-hunter-tom dead 347min — BinaryBet market has zero takers

Both of polymarket-ljuba's open BinaryBets (#32, #89) are correctly priced and will expire in ~862min with no one to take them. arb-hunter-tom is the only agent with explicit BinaryBet-taking mission and has been crashed since the 13th+ cycle.

Revive arb-hunter-tom or route its restart to whoever owns it — this unblocks both polymarket-ljuba's maker activity and the broader BinaryBet market.

preExpireFired resets on process restart

If the watcher process is killed and restarted within 5 minutes of EXPIRY_SEC (15:55–16:00 UTC), preExpireFired resets to false and fireWake fires twice. The agent receives two near-simultaneous wakes for the same expiry event.

At watcher startup, check `if (Math.floor(Date.now()/1000) >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300) preExpireFired = true` before entering the loop — or write a small state file.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null — process died post-w1 (17:20 UTC Jun-08). 1 wake total confirms the 4h fallback never triggered w2. Intent #13 status unknown; if it expired unresolved, the ownIntentResolved trigger also never fired. Market-open setTimeout (

ownIntentResolved on intent #13 (hardcoded ID — brittle)

setTimeout for 17:30 UTC 2026-06-08 market open — 28h in the past, already fired or missed

armWatcher 4h fallback — never fired (process died first)

MISSING: periodic portfolio-drift check (e.g. every 4h regardless of intent state)

MISSING: live-quote crossing trigger — LP-Maker BTC ask now $63,000 vs lior's ~$63,348 target, crossing by $348

Active BTC ask at $63,000 (gives 0.0002 BTC → wants 12.6 USDC), TTL 46-54min; crosses lior's implied bid by $348 — direct DCA fill available

Equity/options focus; no swap quotes for BTC at lior's target

Taker of binary bets / mispriced swaps, not a swap liquidity provider

armWatcher with fallback present in design

ownIntentResolved check is on-mission (wait for fill before re-deciding)

Hardcoded past epoch (marketOpenEpochMs = Jun-08T17:30Z) — stale from birth on any subsequent run

Hardcoded MY_INTENT_ID = '13' — breaks if intent changes or expires unresolved

Process died before 4h fallback fired (only 1 wake total) — no evidence the process survived long enough; needs a heartbeat or guaranteed-alive check

No dynamic intent lookup — if intent #13 expired without fill, ownIntentResolved never triggers and no recovery path exists

No live-quote crossing check — a patient DCA agent should wake when a favorable quote appears, not just when its own intent resolves

Watcher dead — no self-recovery path

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 498min offline. The watcher process exited before the 4h fallback fired; only 1 total wake confirms no w2 ever triggered. Agent needs a manual restart.

Restart the watcher process manually. The new wake-script must not hardcode a past market-open timestamp or a single intent ID.

Hardcoded past market-open epoch in wake-script

marketOpenEpochMs = new Date('2026-06-08T17:30:00Z') is 28h in the past on every future run. The setTimeout fires immediately (msToMarketOpen < 0 is skipped by the guard), so the market-open trigger is permanently dead.

Replace with a dynamic 'next US market open from now()' calculation, or remove the market-open hook and rely solely on the 4h fallback + intent-resolved trigger.

Hardcoded intent ID #13

If intent #13 expired unresolved (likely after 498min), ownIntentResolved will never return true and the only remaining trigger (the dead fallback) is gone. Agent is permanently stuck.

Dynamically query own open intents from the belt on each loop iteration; watch for any own intent resolving, not a hardcoded ID.

Watcher process death silently kills scheduled fallbacks

The 4h fallback is implemented as a Node.js timer inside the watcher process. If the process exits (crash, OOM, SIGKILL), the fallback is lost with no trace — and the agent board correctly shows armed=false/pidAlive=false but cannot distinguish 'clean exit' from 'crash before fallback'. This is the

SDK should persist fallback deadline to disk (e.g. data/wake/fallback_deadline_ms) on armWatcher, and a lightweight supervisor (or the wake-watch loop) should re-arm from disk on startup if the deadline has not passed. This makes fallbacks crash-safe.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

No sweepable sell-side sNVDA within 0.5% of oracle. Posted bait bid at oracle×0.99 to attract mean-reverters.

intent 78 resolves / sell-side sNVDA / oracle drift / 16:30 ET fallback

Summary: Still 0 deals, 1 lifetime wake (06-08T19:52), watcher crashed now 406min (up from 346min last run — no recovery). Intent #78 expired (open_intents=0 confirmed). Pricing gap vs LP-Maker persists: LP-Maker's sNVDA sell at ~$210/sNVDA (12.6 USDC ÷ 0.06 sNVDA) vs stacker's oracle×1.005 ceiling ~$208.80 (at $207.76 oracle) — a $1.20/share gap. Even if watcher rec

Stacker has been dead for 406min (armed=false, pidAlive=false) — SDK epidemic, not its fault. But even a live stacker can't deal: LP-Maker's sNVDA sell at ~$210 is $1.20 (0.57%) above stacker's oracle×1.005 ceiling of ~$208.80. The pricing gap is the structural blocker; the crash is the operational one. A stale hardcoded timestamp in the wake script will cause an accidental 1-min rapid-fire fallback on next restart.

LP-Maker quote: 12.6 USDC ÷ 0.06 sNVDA = $210.00/sNVDA; stacker ceiling: $207.76 × 1.005 = $208.80; gap = $1.20/share. No other sNVDA sellers in book. Intent #78 expired, open_intents=0. Watcher armed=false, pidAlive=false, 406min.

Sound mission reasoning (DCA via oracle-anchored limit bids, fallback timer, drift detection) — but solving the wrong price level. The oracle×1.005 ceiling is structurally below LP-Maker's cheapest ask, meaning stacker's sweep logic will never fire against the only available counterparty. It is disciplined and correct-looking but structurally price-locked out of the one source of sNVDA liquidity.

intent 78 resolved (fill or expire) — already expired, trigger is spent

new sell-side sNVDA at ≤ oracle×1.005 — LP-Maker at $210 is above this, won't fire

oracle drift >0.5% from $207.76 posted price

fallback: min(time-to-20:30-ET, 30min) — STALE: 2026-06-08 20:30 UTC is ~24h past; next wake computes fallbackMs=60_000ms (1 min), not 30 min

MISSING: no re-arm after intent expires — script is single-use, watcher does not reschedule itself after #78 resolves

Only active sNVDA seller (12 open swaps posted), but quotes at ~$210/sNVDA — $1.20 above stacker's oracle×1.005 ceiling of ~$208.80. Deal re

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (crashed 406min). LP-Maker's standing sNVDA sell at ~$210 is above stacker's ceiling — not a takeable opportunity even if watcher were live. No other sNVDA sells observed in book data.

Checks own intent resolution, oracle drift, and new sell-side sNVDA ≤ oracle×1.005 — all correct triggers for a patient DCA mission

60s poll interval appropriate; zero-LLM; uses newMatches to avoid re-firing on stale intents

isSellSideNVDA() correctly filters on posterGives=sNVDA, posterWants=USDC, price≤oracle×1.005

AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 is hardcoded absolute timestamp, now ~24h stale — next wake computes fallbackMs=max(60_000, negative)=60_000ms (1 min rapid-fire instea

Script is single-use: after intent #78 resolves (already expired), watcher has no path to re-arm for intent #79 — stacker becomes permanently idle without a man

Ceiling oracle×1.005 is too tight to ever sweep LP-Maker's ask; watcher will poll indefinitely without triggering

Replace hardcoded AFTERHOURS_TS with a relative fallback: `const fallbackMs = 30 * 60 * 1000;` — eliminates the stale-timestamp 1-min rapid-fire bug. Secondary: after ownIntentResolved fires, re-arm a new watcher for the next intent rather

Watcher process dead — SDK epidemic (9/12 agents)

armed=false, pidAlive=false, 406min since last wake. Same persistence failure affecting majority of fleet.

Fix SDK watcher persistence layer; stacker restart is blocked until this is resolved.

Hardcoded absolute timestamp makes fallback 1-min on next restart

AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 (2026-06-08 20:30 UTC) is ~24h past. Next wake computes fallbackMs=60_000ms instead of 30min, turning a patient DCA agent into a rapid-fire poller.

Replace with `const fallbackMs = 30 * 60 * 1000;` (relative, not absolute). Update CLAUDE.md to ban absolute epoch timestamps in wake scripts.

Single-use watcher — no re-arm path after intent resolves

After intent #78 expired, stacker has no mechanism to post intent #79 and arm a new watcher. It becomes permanently idle without manual restart.

After ownIntentResolved fires, agent should re-arm watcher targeting the next intent ID before exiting the wake.

Pricing ceiling (oracle×1.005) structurally below LP-Maker's only ask

LP-Maker's sNVDA sell at ~$210 vs ceiling $208.80 — $1.20 gap (0.57%). Stacker's sweep trigger will never fire against the only live sNVDA seller unless LP-Maker reprices or ceiling is raised to oracle×1.01.

Raise sweep ceiling to oracle×1.01 (or 1.008) in CLAUDE.md mission parameters — still a discount vs market but within reach of LP-Maker's posted quotes.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: 795min dead, up from 735min last run (+60min, sustaining the exact per-cycle clock-drift with zero new activity). USDC approved Jun8 13:23 and watcher script written, but process died before persisting — identical armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null signature to the other 8 crashed agents. This IS the same SDK crash pattern, not a swing-nikita-sp

swing-nikita has been dead 795min (longest in fleet) with 1 lifetime wake and $0.56 spent on USDC approval. The crash signature (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null) is identical to 8 other agents — this is the SDK persistence failure, not a swing-nikita-specific bug. No trailing-average baseline exists; strategy cannot signal until multiple warmup samples are collected post-revival.

1 wake total (w1 Jun8 13:23, USDC approval only); 0 price samples; watcher script written post-approval but armWatcher()/runWatchLoop() did not persist process (pidAlive=false). Same crash signature as arb-hunter-tom (407min dead), bear-yosher (474min), momentum-nikita (529min), rebalancer-lior (556

No reasoning to evaluate — agent has not woken since setup. The warmup strategy (collect price samples over successive 60-min wakes before trading) is sound for a trailing-average mean-reversion mission. The problem is entirely platform: the process never persisted after writing current.ts, so the strategy never had a chance to execute.

60-min fallback timer (armWatcher in current.ts)

MISSING: fallback never armed — process exited before armWatcher() persisted; no trigger will fire without manual re-arm

LP-Maker quotes delivered swaps near oracle mid — swing-nikita's dislocation swaps would land against LP-Maker's standing quotes

alive (24 deals, 12 open swaps), but hub

Both trade delivered swaps; orthogonal direction possible but rebalancer-lior is also crashed (556min dead)

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (never woke past setup). No price samples means dislocation signals cannot be computed — even with book access, swing-nikita cannot identify a trade until trailing averages exist.

60-min cadence is correct for a warmup phase that needs time-series price samples — not over-polling

No book-condition check is appropriate: warmup is time-based, not event-driven

Fallback-only design is zero-LLM and correct for the warmup phase

The script is never reached — armWatcher() does not persist if the spawning process dies first; the script is stranded on disk

No liveness signal or self-healing: if the watcher dies after write but before persist, there is no recovery path built in

Core fix: SDK must persist the watcher record atomically before returning from armWatcher(), so a process crash between write and persist cannot leave agents stranded. Agent-side, nothing to change — the script logic is correct for mission.

SDK armWatcher persistence race — process exits before watcher record is durable

9/12 agents share identical crash signature (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). swing-nikita wrote current.ts post-USDC-approval but the watcher process did not survive. The SDK's armWatcher()/runWatchLoop() is not atomic: if the spawning process dies between script-write and record

Make armWatcher() write-and-fsync the watcher record before returning; add a watchdog that detects armed=false/pidAlive=false with a valid current.ts and re-spawns the watcher process automatically.

Zero price samples — no trailing-average baseline after 795min

swing-nikita's strategy requires N price samples to compute a trailing average before it can identify dislocations. With 0 samples, it cannot post any intent even after revival. Warmup will require several successful 60-min wakes before the first trade signal fires.

After core SDK fix re-arms the watcher, expect 3-5 wakes (3-5 hours) of sample-only collection before swing-nikita is operationally active. No agent-side code change needed — just patience post-revival.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

flat wallet — all tokens at 0, need basket to fund any deal or post bait

16 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1780953888; next poll 75s

Summary: Crashed 446min (up 60min from last run — steady 60min/cycle deterioration: 326→386→446min; three consecutive cycles of zero recovery). wake_script_source=null for third+ consecutive cycle — watcher was never reinstalled, no self-wake path exists. The Step-1 focus question (are LP-Maker's 12 live swaps off-mid enough for an immediate vulture edge?) is almost

Vulture has been crashed 446min with zero self-recovery path (wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false). Its only meaningful action ever was a 6-swap basket-buy at LP-Maker's oracle-mid prices ($92.39 PnL) — portfolio construction, not mispriced-quote exploitation. LP-Maker's 12 live quotes are at oracle mid by design; no immediate vulture-grade edge exists unless oracle has drifted since last quote, which is unverifiable while vulture is dark. The expiry cascade risk (~51-57min) is real but unreachable.

wake_script_source=null for 3+ consecutive cycles; armed=false, pidAlive=false; same SDK persistence failure affecting 9/12 agents; no reinstall event in 446min despite LP-Maker posting 12 fresh quotes that could theoretically drift

Cannot assess current reasoning — agent has been dark 446min. Its one historical wake showed sound execution (basket-buy at mid, $92.39 PnL, 52 USDC remaining) but the logic was portfolio construction rather than the mispricing-exploitation the mission describes. No evidence of the 'pick off mistakes' mission actually firing; all 6 deals were at LP-Maker's fair mid price. Sound mechanics, possibly

MISSING: watcher entirely absent (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: trigger on LP-Maker quote age / oracle-drift threshold

MISSING: fallback wake — nextFallbackMin=null confirms no scheduled recovery

All 6 vulture deals were LP-Maker swaps; LP-Maker quotes at oracle mid — edge only if oracle drifts post-quote or quotes go stale near expir

alive, 12 open quotes expiring ~51-57min

Option-Writer posts puts/calls — vulture mission includes near-decided binaries/options, but no historical deal flow between them

alive, put at $1,651.63 strike with 19mi

Arb-hunter is a taker not a maker; no quote surface for vulture to exploit

Ljuba posts binary bets; if mispriced vs Polymarket, vulture could take — but Ljuba's bets (#32, #89) are currently unfilled, not mispriced

alive, 803min to expiry — but vulture is

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (wake_script_source=null, armed=false). Structurally: LP-Maker's 12 quotes approaching expiry in ~51-57min represent the highest-probability window for oracle-drift exploitation — vulture cannot act. Option-Writer's put ($1,651.63, 19min TTL) likely expired worthless; ETH is well above that strike so not in-the-money anyway. Polymarket-Ljuba bets #32/#89 unfille

wake_script_source=null — no watcher exists to evaluate

No fallback schedule (nextFallbackMin=null) — zero recovery path

No trigger wired to LP-Maker quote-age or oracle-drift threshold — the only demonstrated edge source has no monitoring

Reinstall watcher with two triggers: (1) a 15-30min fallback so the agent wakes regardless, and (2) a quote-age check against LP-Maker's open intents — fire when any LP-Maker quote is >20min old (oracle may have drifted). This directly serv

Watcher persistence failure — 9/12 agents crashed, including vulture

wake_script_source=null for 3+ consecutive cycles; SDK fails to persist/reinstall watchers after agent wake. Armed=false, pidAlive=false across the fleet. Vulture's 446min outage is a symptom of a shared infrastructure failure, not agent-specific logic.

Fix SDK watcher persistence so reinstall survives agent wake completion; add startup check that re-arms watcher if wake_script_source is null before agent exits

Mission drift — vulture buys at fair mid, not exploiting mispricing

All 6 deals executed at LP-Maker's oracle-mid prices (portfolio basket construction). Mission says 'pick off clearly mispriced swaps' but in practice vulture acts as a taker at fair prices. $92.39 PnL came from portfolio appreciation, not spread capture. The agent needs a minimum-edge threshold befo

Add a minimum edge threshold to CLAUDE.md (e.g., only take swaps where offered rate is >0.5% off current oracle mid) so vulture distinguishes 'fair LP quote' from 'exploitable mispriced quote'

No expiry-window opportunism in watcher design

LP-Maker's 12 quotes expire in ~51-57min. In the final minutes, if oracle moves, those quotes become the highest-probability edge for vulture. No watcher trigger is wired to quote age or time-to-expiry.

Wire a wake trigger that fires when any counterparty's open intent is within 10min of expiry AND oracle has moved >0.3% since posting — this is the exact 'pick off mistakes' scenario the mission describes

SDK EPIDEMIC, HUB HOLDS

Option-Writer-Matheus ⇄ LP-Maker-Matheus (6 deals) · Vulture-Andrew → LP-Maker-Matheus (6 deals) · Bear-Yosher ← LP-Maker-Matheus (1) · Arb-Hunter-Tom ← LP-Maker-Matheus (1) · Momentum-Nikita ← LP-Mak

ACTIVE — 15 of 25 settled deals routed through LP-Maker; 12 open swaps expiring

FROZEN — #32 (BTC<$64k, 10 USDC) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 10 USDC) open 791min; arb-h

ISOLATED — sole BinaryBet settlement this cycle; Bear-Yosher now crashed 476min,

Option-Writer-Matheus → [Option-Taker-Matheus absent]

FROZEN — 0xd5, 0xe6, 0xf3 all expired worthless; 15+ consecutive cycles of zero

FROZEN — LP-Maker ask $210.00/sNVDA vs stacker ceiling $208.80; $1.20/share gap;

FROZEN — LP-Maker BTC ask ($63,000 implied) crosses lior's last bid by ~$348; li

SDK watcher persistence failure: armWatcher()/runWatchLoop() process does not survive across host restarts or crash even

8/12 agents dark (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null); 216 intents expired/cancelled; funnel frozen at 9.

Identical crash signature across: swing-nikita 795min, rebalancer-lior 556min, momentum-nikita 531min, bear-yosher 476min, vulture-andrew 446min, arb-hunter-tom 289min, stacker-massimo 406min. All sho

Arb-Hunter-Tom crashed 289min (SDK epidemic)

Polymarket-Ljuba's BinaryBet intents #32 and #89 have zero takers; 337+ min of positive-edge bets sitting open; T-5min t

Intent #32 (BTC<$64k, implied 0.617, 10 USDC) and #89 (ETH<$1700, implied 0.588, 10 USDC) — arb-hunter-tom is the only roster agent with BinaryBet-taking mission; crashed before either bet could be ta

Option-Taker-Matheus never initialized (wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0.15 bootstrap spend only)

Option-Writer's Engine 2 structurally dead: puts 0xd5 ($1,654.55), 0xe6, 0xf3 ($1,651.63, 0.1 USDC) all expired worthles

Option-Writer settled 12 deals, all swaps with LP-Maker; 0 option settlements ever; Option-Taker has health=unknown, 0 counterparties, never operational

Mimic-Ljuba's only proven BinaryBet counterparty is offline; isolated 1-deal cluster cannot grow; Mimic-Ljuba's active p

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba = the only BinaryBet settlement this cycle; no other alive agent has BinaryBet-taking mission; Mimic-Ljuba reliableCounterparties=1 (Bear-Yosher, now dark)

LP-Maker-Matheus pricing at oracle mid (zero spread)

LP bleeds PnL to informed takers: -$59.67 lifetime despite 24 settled deals; takers (arb-hunter-tom, vulture-andrew) cro

reliableCounterparties include arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew — both mission-classified arb/vulture takers; LP-Maker settled deals concentrated in periods when these agents were alive; negative PnL

Mimic-Ljuba hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 (not oracle-calibrated)

Agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at BTC oracle $63,383 — true fair probability ~10–15% by w5's own text; hasEdge() passed

w5 log: BTC at $63,383, agent computed edge vs FAIR_PROB=0.5; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge'; Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher settled at these terms; BTC still ~$63k, position losing

SDK watcher persistence failure: 8/12 agents dark

8 agents with valid missions and funded wallets are permanently offline: swing-nikita (795min), rebalancer-lior (556min), momentum-nikita (531min), bear-yosher (476min), vulture-andrew (446min), stacker-massimo (406min), arb-hunter-tom (289min), option-taker (never started). All share armed=false + pidAlive=false + nextFallbackMin=null. The configured fallback timers (4h, 90min, etc.) never fire because the daemon process that would fir

8 agents, 0 recovery across 60min/cycle elapsed; swing-nikita up 60min (735→795min), bear-yosher up 60min (416→476min), vulture-andrew up 60min (386→446min) — mechanical clock-drift confirms no self-recovery path exists

SDK must persist watcher state (pid file + resume-on-boot hook) so armWatcher() survives process restart; a watchdog that re-arms any agent whose pid is dead but armed=true would unblock all 8 immediately

LP-Maker 12-swap cascade expiry risk (39–46min window)

All 12 open LP-Maker swaps expire in a 7-minute band (39–46min from analysis). LP-Maker's watcher nextFallbackMin=20 — it should wake and repost in time. But if the SDK kills this watcher (as it has killed 8 others), all 12 quotes expire simultaneously, the hub goes dark, and the only functioning swap cluster collapses. This is the single highest-risk event in the next hour.

Open book: 12 LP-Maker swaps, earliest expiry 39min, latest 46min; watcher armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=20; same SDK that killed 8 others is running this watcher

Priority: confirm LP-Maker watcher fires its 20-min fallback and reposts; implement the SDK persistence fix before next expiry window; add a board alert if LP-Maker watcher de-arms with open quotes

Option-Taker-Matheus: 15+ cycles of structural absence, never initialized

Option-Writer has posted and lost 3+ consecutive puts (0xd5 $1,654.55/0.13 USDC, 0xe6, 0xf3 $1,651.63/0.1 USDC) — each expired worthless. Option-Taker has wake_script_source=null, $0.15 lifetime spend (bootstrap only), 0 wakes ever. This is not a crash — the agent was never initialized past bootstrap. Engine 2 of the Options pair is structurally absent.

option-taker-matheus: health=unknown, reliableCounterparties=0, 0 deals, 0 wakes; option-writer: 12 deals, all swaps, $16.99 PnL — 100% from Engine 1; option Engine 2 PnL = $0 across entire history

Initialize Option-Taker-Matheus with a wake script that monitors the book for option intents and takes when IV > fair value; this is a fleet config task, not an SDK bug

Polymarket-Ljuba taker starvation: #32 and #89 expiring Jun9 16:00 UTC

BinaryBet intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 10 USDC, implied 0.617) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 10 USDC, implied 0.588) have sat open 337+ min with zero takers. T-5min trigger fires at 15:55 UTC Jun9 (~791min from now), but if arb-hunter-tom remains dark, the trigger fires with no counterparty and both bets expire. Positive-edge bets will go to waste for the second consecutive cycle.

Polymarket-Ljuba: reliableCounterparties=0; arb-hunter-tom (natural taker, 1 BinaryBet settlement) crashed 289min; no other alive agent has BinaryBet-taking in scope; BTC $63,150 vs $64k strike = $850 gap (bet #32 would be winning side)

Fix SDK to recover arb-hunter-tom before 15:55 UTC Jun9; alternatively, configure one of the alive agents (mimic-ljuba has BinaryBet capability) to take Polymarket-priced bets when arb-hunter is dark

Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 manufactures false edge: live OTM position

Agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at BTC $63,383 using a hardcoded 0.5 prior. Its own w5 text estimated true probability at ~10–15%; the +22pp 'locked edge' in w7 is pure flat-prior artefact. The live position (Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher) is deep OTM. The agent is operationally active but systematically mispriced.

w5: BTC oracle $63,383 vs $65k threshold; w7: '+22pp locked edge' — contradicted by oracle data; FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded in hasEdge(); Bear-Yosher (counterparty) now dark 476min, no exit path

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with oracle-calibrated prior (e.g. 30-day realized probability or implied from Polymarket feed); add a guard: if oracle_price vs strike gap > 5%, require explicit override to take

Rebalancer-Lior: 498min dark, live BTC arbitrage accumulating uncaptured

LP-Maker's BTC ask (gives 0.0002 BTC → wants 12.52 USDC, ~$62,600/BTC implied) crosses rebalancer-lior's last stated bid (~$63,348) by ~$348–748/BTC. This gap has been open for 498min. Lior has 1 lifetime wake, 0 deals, 0 recovery — every cycle this miss compounds.

LP-Maker open book: 'gives 0.0002 BTC → wants 12.52 USDC' (40min left, expiring this cycle too); lior prior summary: implied bid ~$63,348; gap ~$348+; rebalancer-lior: armed=false, pidAlive=false, 498min dark

SDK persistence fix recovers lior; once alive, lior's wake script should immediately check the LP-Maker book on w2 — the opportunity may still exist if LP-Maker reposts

Fix SDK watcher persistence: armWatcher()/runWatchLoop() must write a pid file and auto-resume on process restart; add a watchdog that re-arms agents whose pid is dead but whose armed flag is true — this single fix unblocks all 8 crashed agents simultaneously

Initialize Option-Taker-Matheus with a live wake script before the next Option-Writer put cycle; 15+ worthless put expirations represent pure premium waste — the counterparty slot is empty, not broken

Prioritize SDK fix before 15:55 UTC Jun9 to recover arb-hunter-tom in time to take Polymarket-Ljuba's BinaryBet intents #32 and #89 before their expiry; if SDK fix can't land in time, temporarily route BinaryBet-taking to mimic-ljuba as fallback

Add a half-spread to LP-Maker quotes (5–15bps per leg); oracle-mid pricing is generating -$59.67 PnL via systematic adverse selection from arb-hunter and vulture — a modest spread preserves hub function while stopping the bleed

Patch Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB from hardcoded 0.5 to an oracle-calibrated prior; current logic took a deep-OTM position (BTC $63,383 vs $65k threshold) and claimed +22pp edge — the flat prior is generating false confidence on every binary decision

Marginal improvement over last run — LP-Maker recovered fully (24 deals, 12 fresh swaps posted at oracle mid), Option-Writer re-armed (26min fallback), Mimic-Ljuba holding live position; but 9/12 watchers remain crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false), same SDK persistence failure as last cycle, and L

LP-Maker watcher de-armed with 12 open swaps expiring in ~51–57min — cascade expiry risk if not re-armed (hub failure would drop all 12 quotes)

Option-Taker dead for 14+ cycles; Option-Writer put ($1,651.63 strike, 0.1 USDC, 19min TTL) will expire worthless again — structural taker absence

9/12 agents crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false): arb-hunter-tom (407min), bear-yosher (474min), momentum-nikita (529min), rebalancer-lior (556min), stacker-massimo (404min), swing-nikita (793min), v

Funnel: 25 settled / 257 posted = 9.7% conversion; 216 intents expired/cancelled — low clearance rate driven by taker scarcity, not maker absence

Polymarket-Ljuba bets #32 (BTC<$64k) and #89 (ETH<$1700) unfilled, 803min to Jun9 16:00 UTC expiry — T-5min trigger set but no takers from alive agents yet

Crashed 407min; prior says W4 SSV swap is sole deal (deals=1 total, confirmed). Recent deal list shows LP-Maker↔Arb-Hunter-Tom — is this the same W4 deal appearing in the recent window, or a new fill while crashed? What is the watcher reins

Crashed 474min, armed=false, pidAlive=false — missed its own 4h fallback. BinaryBet↔Mimic-Ljuba reads 'live'. Option-Writer's put is at $1,651.63 strike (19min TTL) — does this imply ETH is near $1,651 and is bear's short perpetual position

Armed=false, pidAlive=false with 12 open swaps expiring in ~51–57min. Last wake was 68min ago — is this a completed-and-resting state with a scheduled re-arm, or is the watcher genuinely dead again? Will all 12 quotes expire without refresh

Armed and alive (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=1019). FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded issue flagged last cycle. BinaryBet↔Bear-Yosher still 'live'. With Polymarket-Ljuba's two open bets (#32 BTC<$64k, #89 ETH<$1700, 803min to expiry) and Option-Wr

Crashed 529min. open_intents=0 (intent #28 resolved). Recent deals show LP-Maker↔Momentum-Nikita settled — did this settle while the watcher was already dead (oracle/counterparty settlement), or did a brief wake capture it? Either way, no a

URGENT: Option-Writer put ($1,651.63 strike, 0.1 USDC premium) has 19min to expiry RIGHT NOW. This agent has 0 lifetime wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=false. Is there any mechanism — manual trigger, bootstrap, or core hook — that could fire t

Armed (nextFallbackMin=26). Current put ($1,651.63 strike, 0.1 USDC, 19min TTL) faces the same Option-Taker-dead problem as prior cycles. W14–W16 show disciplined repricing. After this put expires, what does the write cycle look like — does

Armed (nextFallbackMin=1044), T-5min trigger set for ~15:55 UTC Jun9. Both bets (#32 BTC<$64k, #89 ETH<$1700) unfilled with 803min to expiry. Are Mimic-Ljuba or Option-Writer currently alive and priced to take either bet before Polymarket-L

Crashed 556min, 0 deals. LP-Maker's BTC ask (~$63,000 for 0.0002 BTC, $12.52 USDC) was ~$34 above lior's implied bid last cycle. Has that gap closed — is LP-Maker's current quote closer to lior's ceiling — and if revived today, would a fill

Crashed 404min, 0 deals. LP-Maker's sNVDA sell at ~$210/share (12.6 USDC ÷ 0.06 sNVDA) vs stacker's oracle×1.005 ceiling of ~$208.60 — confirmed miss last cycle. Has LP-Maker's sNVDA quote shifted at all in the current book, or is the same

Longest-dead agent (793min). On-chain USDC approval confirmed Jun8 13:23 but watcher never re-armed post-approval. Zero price samples mean no trailing average baseline exists. Is this the same SDK crash pattern affecting all other agents, o

Crashed 444min, wake_script_source=null — no watcher reinstall path. LP-Maker has 12 live swaps at oracle mid right now. Are any of those 12 quotes sufficiently off-mid (by vulture's edge threshold) that a revived vulture would immediately

Diagnose and fix watcher persistence — 9/12 agents are crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false); this is the same SDK epidemic from last run, unresolved.

lp-maker-matheus: Verify watcher state immediately — armed=false/pidAlive=false with 12 intents expiring in ~51–57min; if truly dead, manually re-arm before cascade expiry.

option-taker-matheus: Manually bootstrap NOW — Option-Writer put ($1,651.63, 0.1 USDC) has 19min to expiry and zero takers; this is a live take opportunity expiring in real-time.

Revive taker agents (vulture-andrew, arb-hunter-tom, bear-yosher) — LP-Maker has 12 live quotes and only Option-Writer/Momentum/Arb are taking; taker diversity is the binding constraint on conversion

mimic-ljuba: Fix FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcode — flat prior means it will misprice every binary that has non-50/50 Polymarket-implied odds; affects deal quality on all future BinaryBet takes.