Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary in take window; swap near-misses require assets not held; no new affordable edge.

new intent >#966, OR binary bet in 30-min settlement window with CEX taker decided, OR 30-min fallback

Summary: Fill rate recovered from 1.8% (2/111 wakes) to ~9% in post-LP-recovery wakes (4/134 total; 2 fills in ~22 post-recovery wakes: w128 SSV swap +35bps, w131 ETH swap +22bps). The Vulture-Andrew deal (w128) confirmed a genuine arb edge: arb-hunter's CEX feed showed +35bps on an SSV intent Vulture had posted — arb-hunter took it profitably, portfolio grew $99.82→

LP-Maker recovery translated directly: 2 fills in ~22 post-recovery wakes (~9% rate vs 1.8% prior). The Vulture-Andrew deal was a legitimate swap arb (+35bps CEX-confirmed), not a misfill. Portfolio up ~$12 since last summary; realized PnL -$0.28 is token-cost drag on 4 small fills, not a signal.

2/4 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; 1 ↔ Vulture-Andrew; 1 prior. With LP back, fill rate jumped 5× in recent wakes. w132–w135 waits: BTC needs +$2,550 (+4.2%) rally, SSV gap real but no matching intent, binaries deeply OTM — thin-book periods, not agent failure.

Sound and correctly scoped. Agent quantifies every pass ('BTC needs +$2,550 rally') and advances HIGH_WATER each wake (851→884) without phantom fires. The Vulture-Andrew SSV take at +35bps was CEX-confirmed before execution — exactly what the mission requires. No churn: waits are justified by cited numbers, fills have measured edge. Solving the right problem.

New intent ID > HIGH_WATER=884 posted to open book

Binary bet within 30–1800s of settlement AND CEX taker margin ≥0.5%

Primary swap counterparty; 2/4 deals, 12 active quotes now live

Posted SSV swap arb-hunter took at +35bps (w128); Vulture posts sharp intents arb-hunter can CEX-confirm

Posts BinaryBets on BTC/ETH — arb-hunter's primary binary surface; bear's open bet (28m left) is deeply OTM so no current edge

Posts/takes BinaryBets; potential binary counterparty if near-decided

None confirmed. SSV +69bps gap at w129 was real but 'book has no intent with receivable-asset matching' — not a miss, correctly skipped. Watcher blind to CEX feed for SSV/non-BTC-ETH assets (oracle map covers only BTC/ETH), so any SSV binary edges are unmeasurable until that changes.

HIGH_WATER pattern correctly prevents re-firing on stale intents — advances every wake (851→884 over 7 wakes shown)

Binary check uses terms.expiry (settlement time), not posting expiry — correctly distinguishes when the bet resolves

CEX fetch gated by MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT=0.5% — prevents noise fires on negligible gaps

Zero-LLM, 30-min fallback, baseline-on-first-poll pattern is clean

ORACLE_SYMBOL map covers only BTC/ETH — SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT binary bets with those oracles would be skipped silently even if near-decided and profitable

Expand ORACLE_SYMBOL to include SSV (and any stock oracle addresses) so binary near-expiry checks cover the full book, not just BTC/ETH — current gap means the watcher is blind to an entire binary surface segment.

ORACLE_SYMBOL map incomplete — misses SSV and equity binaries

watcher only maps BTC and ETH oracle addresses; SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT binary bets near settlement will never trigger a fire, even if +5% in-the-money on CEX

Add SSV and equity oracle addresses to ORACLE_SYMBOL in current.ts; fetch SSV price from a liquid CEX endpoint (e.g. Coinbase or Binance SSV-USD) and equity proxies if available

Realized PnL -$0.28 on 4 small fills (~$8-$25 notional each)

Token cost ($3.53 lifetime) is comparable to deal profit at current fill sizes; each fill is 4–8 USDC notional. Not a bug, but fill size is at the floor of economic viability

No immediate fix needed — portfolio mark is up $12; but if LP-Maker posts larger quotes, agent should confirm its per-fill cap (25% of portfolio) scales up with portfolio growth rather than staying anchored to old values

Bear-Yosher

Exactly-one-resting invariant violated (836 expired). Posted 869 to maintain bear anchor. No BinaryBets available to tak

intent 869 fill/expiry OR new BinaryBet OR ETH/BTC +1.5% OR deal 75 near-expiry OR 4h

Summary: Mission executing correctly: 14 settled BinaryBets (11 with Mimic-Ljuba, reliable partnership validated), -$0.36 lifetime PnL, disciplined 'exactly-one-resting-bet' invariant. Wakes w31-w35 show clean recovery from w29b/w30 promise-drop incident (no new duplicates). Focus question: 1 open intent (17m old) is normal order flow awaiting fill/expiry, not stuck.

Bear-yosher's crypto-down conviction is executing correctly with 14 settled deals (11 with Mimic, -$0.36 PnL) and recovers cleanly from w29b/w30 duplicate-fire incident. Risk is platform-level: core SDK's armWatcher promise-drop remains unfixed and could re-trigger the invariant violation.

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop: w29b & w30 fired simultaneously on same intent-fill trigger (06-10 04:09:00), posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets. Not agent reasoning failure — agent correctly detects and repairs invariant violation in w31 (repost). No agent-side misreading.

Sound. Mission-aligned execution: posts crypto-down BinaryBets BELOW strikes, maintains 'exactly one resting bet' invariant via disciplined expiry/repost (w31, w32, w34b, w35). Fires on economic events: deal expiry, price >1.5% adverse move, new binaries on book, own intent resolution. The w29b/w30 duplicate-fire is a core SDK bug, not reasoning failure.

Deal 74 near-expiry (5 min window before 10:17 UTC)

Intent 760 resolution (fill/expiry, ~08:55 UTC, 1h TTL)

11 of 14 settled deals (79%), reliable copy-trader, thesis-aligned (crypto-down conviction mirror)

Takes mispriced binaries; could absorb bear's resting bets if competitive, but currently posting 8 aged unfilled intents (21-40m old) himsel

warming (low fill rate, capacity uncerta

Takes near-decided binaries, but latency-arbitrage focus on fast CEX feed may not align with bear's patient on-chain oracle pricing

None detected. Agent maintains exactly-one-resting-bet invariant and expires/reposts unfilled orders systematically (w31, w32, w34b, w35). The 1 open intent (17m old) is normal order flow — no fill does not indicate missed trade opportunity, just thin book or counterparty unavailable right now.

Fires on own intent resolution (maintains exactly-one-resting-bet invariant)

Fires on ETH/BTC price moves >1.5% (crypto-down thesis edge; adversarial stop-loss)

Fires on new aligned BinaryBet on book (taker leg of mission)

4h fallback (reasonable cadence for patient conviction, not sub-minute churn)

Zero LLM in loop, lightweight price-fetch checks, scalable

No agent-script change needed. The fix is core SDK: patch armWatcher in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js to prevent duplicate fires on the same trigger event (see issues, scope: core).

armWatcher promise-drop causes duplicate wakes

w29b and w30 fired simultaneously (06-10 04:09:00) on the same intent-fill event, posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets and violating 'exactly one resting bet' invariant. Core SDK bug in armWatcher; all agents using armWatcher are at risk. This is the same root cause as LP-Maker offline (919 min, armed=f

Debug and patch armWatcher in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js: ensure fireWake() trigger is consumed atomically so only one wakeLoop iteration fires per trigger event. Verify promise handling does not double-fire on same condition.

Index-Maker

Summary: Seventh consecutive cycle of identical null state: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No new signal — no file timestamp, no config delta, no external trigger, no partial boot artifact detected. LP-Maker's recovery this cycle (74 deals, 8 open quotes) has no bearing here; index-maker has ne

7th null cycle: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, $0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. Nothing has changed. This agent has never run. Its only natural counterparty (index-taker) is in the same null state — both sides of the IndexBasket market are dark.

wake_script_source=null across 7 consecutive cycles; no watcher process ever spawned (pidAlive=false, armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null); $0 lifetime tokens confirms zero LLM execution; index-taker identically null — neither side of the market has ever deployed

No reasoning to evaluate — agent has never executed. The mission (publish LONG IndexBasket intents + verified source to indexer) is well-scoped, but it is entirely hypothetical until deployment. The 7-cycle persistence with zero recovery path rules out transient failure.

MISSING: no wake script deployed — wake_script_source=null

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

Designed as the exclusive SHORT-side counterparty for index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents — but also in identical null state (armed=false

offline — confirmed structural deploymen

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never booted, no intents posted, no counterparty interaction possible

No wake script exists (wake_script_source=null) — cannot evaluate fit-to-mission

No fallback, no pid, no armed watcher — complete absence of deployment artifacts

Deploy the agent from scratch: the wake script, CLAUDE.md, and process must all be initialized — no partial recovery is possible from current null state

Agent never deployed — 7 null cycles

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens across 7 consecutive observer cycles. No partial boot artifact, no config file, no recovery path. This is not a crash — it is a never-started state.

Full deployment required: create the agent's CLAUDE.md (mission, tools, IndexBasket contract address, indexer endpoint), write and register current.ts (wake script), and boot the watcher process. LP-Maker's recovery cannot unblock this — it is pre-requisite infrastructure.

index-taker co-dependency also null

The only counterparty for index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents is index-taker, which is in an identical never-deployed state. Even if index-maker deploys and posts intents, zero takers exist.

Deploy both index-maker and index-taker together — neither is useful without the other. Coordinate deployment to avoid one side posting unmatched intents and burning tokens.

7th null cycle: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, $0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. Nothing has changed. This agent has never run. Its only natural counterparty (index-taker) is in the same null state — both sides of the IndexBasket market are dark.

Index-Taker

Summary: 7th consecutive cycle of identical null state: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No change from cycle 6. Dependency theory fully refuted and now locked: index-maker is in the same null state this cycle (7th), confirming both failed independently — no sequencing relationship exists between

7th null cycle, zero state change. Confirmed independent deployment failure identical to index-maker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, $0 lifetime tokens. The dependency theory is dead — neither agent has ever woken, so no ordering or triggering relationship was ever possible.

7 consecutive cycles: wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null. Identical null vector to index-maker across all 7 cycles — independent co-failure, not sequencing.

Unmeasurable — 0 wakes means no reasoning has ever executed. Nothing to evaluate.

MISSING: no watcher deployed — wake_script_source=null means no trigger exists at all

Sole intended counterparty — posts the LONG IndexBasket intents index-taker would SHORT

Dead — 7th null cycle, armed=false, pidA

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (no watcher running). Also moot — index-maker has never posted an IndexBasket intent, so there is nothing to take.

No script exists — wake_script_source=null, so the agent cannot wake under any condition

No fallback timer — nextFallbackMin=null means no safety-net wake even if the primary trigger is absent

Deploy the agent: write and register a wake script + fallback timer. Without this, all other analysis is academic.

Agent never deployed — no wake script, no watcher, no process

7 cycles of null state: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0 tokens. This is not a logic failure — the agent does not exist on the platform in any running form.

Deploy index-taker: register a wake script (poll indexer for LONG IndexBasket intents, trigger on new postings), set a fallback timer, and start the watcher process.

Sole counterparty (index-maker) is also undeployed

Even after index-taker is deployed, it has zero intents to take until index-maker is also deployed and posting LONG IndexBasket intents. Both must be deployed together.

Deploy index-maker in the same sprint — without it, index-taker will wake to an empty book indefinitely.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Planned stock repost at US open; on-hours base 20bps vs 60bps off-hours. Cannot fill BTC intents (thin inventory $2.17).

crypto cluster expiry ~13:52 UTC, price inversion, or new fillable intent

armWatcher promise-drop at w44 (06-09T17:19Z): fallbackMs=3600000 should have triggered at ~18:19Z but orchestrator never received the return; armed=false, pidAlive=false confirmed. Last deal #64 at w42 (16:26Z), 0 tokens in 5h, open_intents=0. Not agent logic — wake-script is sound.

quote expiry (~45 min, myIntentIds list)

new fillable network intent matching HOLD set

MISSING: watcher never fires — promise-drop means runWatchLoop is never scheduled by orchestrator

9 fills with LP-Maker pre-crash; primary swap taker, active with 8 open intents now

1 fill, primarily options/binaries not swaps

Tracks own quote expiry by ID — correct trigger for an LP whose main risk is phantom depth from stale quotes

Oracle breach check (±15–50 bps) via belt is well-calibrated for a near-mid quoter

60-min fallback is appropriate cadence for an LP (not sub-minute polling)

canFill guard on HOLD set prevents waking on irrelevant intents

Script is sound but moot — the core armWatcher promise-drop prevents it from ever being scheduled

armWatcher promise-drop kills LP restart

w44 fallbackMs=3600000 was set at 06-09T17:19Z; orchestrator should have re-woken at ~18:19Z but the promise was dropped. Now 931 min offline. Every taker agent dependent on LP-Maker swaps is starved. This is the single highest-leverage fix in the fleet.

armWatcher must confirm the orchestrator acknowledged the scheduled callback; add a heartbeat or explicit ack — if none received within 2 min, surface a hard error rather than silently dropping the fallback.

Expired quote IDs in wake-script will fire immediately on restart

myIntentIds in the w44 script includes IDs 609, 620–631, all expired ~14h ago. On restart these will all resolve as 'expired', firing multiple redundant wakes in quick succession.

On restart, agent should clear the myIntentIds list or check expiry timestamp before looping — or the first wake should just re-quote fresh rather than chasing resolved IDs.

Mimic-Ljuba

No BinaryBets with ≥3pp taker edge on board. Edge floor unmet.

new BinaryBet appears OR 45min fallback to re-scan (market hours 13:30–20:00 UTC)

Summary: Mimic is correctly on standby — Bear at 0 open intents means no copy-signal and no taker edge on board. All 16 settled deals are Bear-Yosher BinaryBets; the mission is working but 100% concentrated in one signal source. Critical liveness gap: watcher process (pidAlive=false) died before 13:30 UTC and missed the market-open trigger entirely — the agent has no

Mimic is not broken — with Bear at 0 intents and no BinaryBets on book, silence is correct behavior for a copy-trader. The failure is operational: watcher process died before 13:30 UTC, so the market-open trigger (a registered hook) never fired; agent missed the opening scan window and won't recover until the 87-min fallback (~15:18 UTC). Vulture's 9 open intents are the one concrete missed-opportunity signal this cycle.

15/16 settled deals with Bear-Yosher; Bear currently at 0 open intents; no BinaryBets on board since w55 (10:30 UTC); watcher process dead so Vulture's 9 open intents (posted 20–57 min ago) were not assessed

Sound on discipline — ≥3pp edge floor consistently applied, all 3 recent deals (87/88/93, +35/40/42pp) well above floor. Solving the RIGHT problem when signal exists, but the watcher liveness gap means Mimic is blind to signal that arrived after 10:30 UTC. One architectural blind spot: isDayOpen fires as a level-trigger (every 60s during 13:30–20:00) not an edge-trigger — on re-arm mid-session thi

new BinaryBet intent posted (template 0x09cd16…)

stock market hours 13:30–20:00 UTC (level-trigger, fires every loop tick)

MISSING: watcher process is dead (pidAlive=false) — real-time triggers (BinaryBet + market-open) are NOT running; only fallback will recover at ~15:18 UTC

Primary copy-signal and sole counterparty (15/16 deals); when Bear posts, Mimic acts

9 open baiting intents posted 20–57 min ago — if any are BinaryBets above 3pp edge, Mimic is a natural taker; not currently assessed

Posts BinaryBets; Mimic could mirror polymarket flow as a second signal source beyond Bear

Swap-only; irrelevant to Mimic's binary mission

Unmeasurable for Vulture's 9 open intents — watcher loop was dead (pidAlive=false) from ~10:30 UTC onward, so no book scan ran after that. If any of those 9 intents are BinaryBets with ≥3pp edge they were live and missable. The market-open window (13:30–13:51 UTC) scan for sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT also never ran.

BinaryBet template filter (0x09cd16…) is precise — won't false-fire on swaps

Stock market open trigger correctly scoped to 13:30–20:00 UTC for stock binary bets

isDayOpen is a level-trigger: fires on every 60s poll tick during 13:30–20:00 — on re-arm mid-session (e.g., 14:00 UTC) the watcher would immediately fire again

Process liveness: watcher died before 13:30 UTC; no restart mechanism means market-open trigger silently failed and fallback is the only recovery (87 min late)

Replace isDayOpen level-trigger with a one-shot edge-trigger: compute the next 13:30 UTC timestamp and compare to block.timestamp — fire only when timestamp crosses that boundary, not for the entire session. This eliminates the re-wake floo

Watcher process died before market-open trigger fired

pidAlive=false at ~10:30 UTC; stock market opened 13:30 UTC with no process running to detect it; agent missed a ~21-min window of potential stock-binary flow and Vulture's 9 live intents; fallback recovers at ~15:18 UTC

Add a scheduled wake near 13:25 UTC (hard deadline) as a belt-and-suspenders for market open; or ensure the watcher process restarts after unexpected exit rather than silently relying on fallback

isDayOpen is a level-trigger causing re-wake flood during market hours

Every re-arm mid-session (e.g., 14:00 UTC) immediately fires fireWake again because isDayOpen=true, creating a tight loop until market close

Switch to edge-trigger: store the last-fired date, compare current UTC date to last fired, fire only once per day at open crossing

Single counterparty concentration (Bear-Yosher 15/16 deals)

Mimic only mirrors Bear; when Bear is quiet, Mimic is idle regardless of other BinaryBet flow (Vulture, Polymarket-Ljuba). This is by-design but creates a structural single-point-of-failure for deal flow

Expand the mirror set to include Polymarket-Ljuba BinaryBets as a secondary signal; Vulture's baiting intents are already taker-takeable via the existing book scan

Momentum-Nikita

Edge threshold unmet on both lookbacks. SSV is the persistent momentum leader but hasn't broken out by the required 2pp

full-universe relative-gap ≥2pp (BTC·ETH·SSV·sAAPL·sNVDA·sMSFT) or 4h fallback

Summary: Prior run resolved: market-open trigger fired at 13:31 UTC (w16) as predicted. However SSV — persistent leader — cleared 2pp on both lookbacks in w9 but fell sub-threshold at w16; agent correctly held, no intent posted. Critical change this cycle: LP-Maker's recovery (8 active quotes including sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL) now provides fill-side for all 6 universe asse

W16 fired at 13:31 UTC right on the market-open trigger, but SSV's gap vs second-best stayed sub-2pp — disciplined hold, no intent posted. With LP-Maker now live (8 quotes, sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL on book), the fill-side vacuum that killed both prior SSV intents (#741/#745) is resolved; the next confirmed gap ≥2pp has a real execution path for the first time this session.

Intents #741 and #745 (both SSV, $51.25 USDC) failed due to LP offline / illiquid book — not threshold or pricing. Current state: no gap has cleared 2pp since w9. LP-Maker recovery removes the structural fill blocker; root cause now is purely market (no asset separating by 2pp from the pack at w16:

Sound and solving the right problem. The agent is correctly applying the relative-gap filter (2pp between leader and second-best from live baseline) — which is the actual momentum signal, not an absolute-move proxy. Disciplined non-firing across w12–w16 when crypto declined together with no leadership separation is correct behavior. The one concern: 15/16 wakes are repeat wakes (signal barely fire

Relative gap ≥2pp between any two assets in {BTC, ETH, SSV, sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT} vs live-captured baseline

Active quotes on sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL and SSV — covers full stock universe and the persistent crypto leader; 8 open quotes post-recovery

alive, woke 18 min ago, 74 settled deals

Both trade delivered swaps on same assets; swing fades dislocations while momentum chases breakouts — could be opposite side of same move

Rebalancer posts DCA swaps on overlapping assets; could fill momentum intent if direction aligns, but lot-size mismatch (7 USDC vs LP's 12 U

None identifiable. W16 gap was sub-2pp — no intent should have been posted. No open intents from other agents in the book that momentum could have taken (0 open intents). Stock universe now fillable via LP but no gap signal has fired.

Relative-gap ≥2pp is exactly the right decision variable — fires on leadership separation, not absolute move noise

Full universe (BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) covered, stocks included for market-hours sessions

Live baseline captured at first poll (not stale hardcoded price) — measurement window is always from this watcher session's start

Zero-LLM, 60s poll, 4h fallback, PID file for clean kill — all correct

Skips asset if oracle read fails rather than firing on incomplete data

Baseline resets on every session restart (w15: 'watcher died, relaunching') — if restarts are frequent intraday, the measurement window shrinks to minutes, turn

Persist the baseline to a file (e.g. data/wake/momentum_baseline.json) at first-poll and reload it on restart if written within the current trading session — so a watcher restart doesn't reset the measurement window to zero.

Baseline lost on watcher restart resets momentum measurement window

W15 logged 'watcher died (session restart)' — each restart re-anchors the live baseline to the current price, collapsing the measurement window. The 2pp gap filter is calibrated for multi-hour intraday drift; a 5-minute window post-restart means the gap can't accumulate to threshold even when a real

Write baseline to data/wake/momentum_baseline.json at first poll; on startup, reload if file timestamp is within the current trading session (e.g., same UTC day and within 8h). This preserves continuity across restarts without leaking stale prior-day prices.

Residual BTC position (0.000393 BTC, ~$24) from w9 rotation not rotated out

Portfolio at w14 was $99.05 ($75 USDC + 0.000393 BTC). The BTC was acquired as part of a prior momentum cycle; subsequent wakes have not rotated it to USDC despite SSV being the chosen leader and cash being preferred when nothing is working (mission: 'cash when nothing's working'). This is a small d

Agent should evaluate whether residual BTC position should be liquidated to USDC when edge threshold is unmet for N consecutive wakes — the mission's 'cash when nothing's working' clause implies this.

Option-Taker-Matheus

new audited Option intent appears, or my option expires (5 min before), or 2h fallback

Summary: w20 (14:47, 50 min ago) broke the zero-deal drought — took ETH put dealId 100 from option-writer-matheus: strike $1,631.46 (1% OTM from $1,647.94 spot), $0.24 premium, ~1.95h expiry. Prior summary's conclusion (supply-side zero, tooling fixed) validated: the templateHash fix worked and the agent acted immediately when supply appeared. Watcher now armed with

Supply-side drought ended at w20: agent correctly took ETH put (dealId 100, $0.24 premium, ~7020s remaining at take). Now holding one live option with watcher armed to settle at ~16:37 UTC. Hardcoded expiry timestamp is the single pending agent-scope risk; structural supply scarcity (1 writer, sporadic cadence) remains the fleet-scope constraint.

Only option-writer-matheus supplies options (15 lifetime deals, 1 posted today enabling dealId 100). Book was empty across w13–w19 and is empty again post-take (0 open intents). Effective supply rate: ~1 option per multi-hour epoch.

Sound and on-mission. w20 judgment was correct: $0.24 premium for a strike 1% OTM with 1.95h tail is cheap optionality with asymmetric payoff on an ETH move. Agent did not churn — 16 of 20 wakes were passive scans; it acted once when supply appeared. No re-derivation of cold state; woke on the right signal and executed decisively.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f4b… filter via newMatches)

dealId 100 expiry: fires at OPTION_EXPIRY_TS − 300s (~16:37 UTC)

Sole option supply source; confirmed 1 deal today (dealId 100); 15 lifetime deals; health ok

ok — woke 9 min before Step-1; posts spo

none — book was empty at every scan (w13–w19) until option-writer posted; option-taker took it in the same epoch (w20). No intents skipped.

Dual-trigger: new-option-appears AND expiry-5min-before — exactly the two events a selective option buyer must act on

templateHash filter (0xb3d66f4b…) prevents blind takes on unaudited templates

newMatches pattern avoids re-firing on already-seen intents in the same poll cycle

2h fallback ensures the agent wakes even if neither trigger fires

OPTION_EXPIRY_TS = 1781106252 is a literal constant — if agent takes a second option, its expiry is untracked and the settlement wake will not fire on time

Settlement grace window is only -60s: if the process restarts and misses the expiry wake, the agent waits up to 2h before retrying settlement

Persist held-option state (dealId + expiry) to /agent/data/wake/held-option.json on each take; wake script reads it at startup to set OPTION_EXPIRY_TS dynamically — generalizes to any future option without script edits.

Hardcoded OPTION_EXPIRY_TS breaks settlement wake for any second option taken

Wake script has OPTION_EXPIRY_TS = 1781106252 as a hardcoded literal. After dealId 100 settles, if the agent takes another option, the new expiry won't be registered and the 5-min-before-expiry trigger won't fire.

On each take, write {dealId, expiry} to /agent/data/wake/held-option.json; wake script reads this file at startup to populate OPTION_EXPIRY_TS, falling back to null (skip settlement check) if no file exists.

Single option writer creates structural supply scarcity

19 of 20 wakes returned zero audited Option intents. One writer posting sporadically caps option-taker's throughput to ~1 deal per multi-hour epoch regardless of watcher quality.

Onboard a second option writer, or expand option-taker's audited-template list to include polymarket-ljuba's option template if it uses a compatible judge — doubling supply sources would materially increase deal frequency.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Engine 1 paused — market signals non-recovery. Repricing and reposting burnt gas and collateral with zero fills. The mov

vol spike (>1% ETH/BTC) or option buyer on book, or 4h market-close fallback

PUT 779: posted 08:55, 60-min window, open_intents=0 at 10:51 = expired unfilled; Option-Taker lifetime deals = 0. sMSFT: swaps 530/533/764/804 all failed; w31 self-diagnosed 'LP only trades belt tokens'; Bear-Yosher (tech equities up conviction, 16 deals) is the only plausible sMSFT taker but has n

Date.now() >= 2026-06-10T13:30:00Z (US market open for sMSFT rebalance)

MISSING: no trigger on option book — if Option-Taker or Polymarket-Ljuba posts a taker intent for ETH options before 13:30, this agent sleeps through it

Mission-designed buyer for ETH/BTC options written by this agent; cash-settled PUT 779 was exactly on-mission for it

Belt tokens only (ETH/BTC/USDC/sAAPL/sNVDA/SSV); confirmed non-taker for sMSFT swaps per w31 diagnosis

Tech equities UP conviction aligns with sMSFT long; has capacity (16 deals, ok health); 1 settled deal with this agent already

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents; 2 deals, active — could have evaluated PUT 779

Fires precisely at 13:30 UTC US market open — correct gate for stock-token legs per mission rules

10-min fallback (13:40) ensures the wake happens even if the loop fires slightly late

Label clearly states the intent ('sMSFT rebalance ~$17.50') — unambiguous audit trail

Zero-LLM, deterministic time check — no hallucination risk in the watcher itself

No option-book trigger: if Option-Taker or Polymarket-Ljuba opens a taker window for ETH options before 13:30, agent misses it entirely

Market-open wake will hit the same structural wall — sMSFT has no known taker; the wake is well-timed but the post-wake action is likely to fail again

Option-Taker never executes: option ecosystem one-sided

Option-Taker-Matheus has 0 lifetime deals despite being armed. PUT 779 (collateral $8, 3% premium, 60-min window) was a textbook on-mission fill — it expired untouched. This is a fleet-level blocker: Option-Writer cannot realize premium income without a functioning taker.

Diagnose Option-Taker: read its wake script and recent wakes to determine if it saw PUT 779 and rejected it (pricing logic?) or never evaluated it (watcher blind to option book). If blind, add an option-book trigger to its watcher.

Engine 2 sMSFT path permanently blocked without counterparty discovery

5 consecutive failed sMSFT swaps (530/533/764/804 + pending at 13:30). LP-Maker confirmed non-taker. Bear-Yosher is the only plausible counterparty (tech equities up) but has not filled stock tokens. Repeating the same swap post at market open is rational patience only if there's evidence a taker ex

At 13:30 wake, before posting sMSFT swap: check Bear-Yosher's open intents and recent activity for stock-token appetite. If no signal, redirect the $17.50 Engine 2 slice to sAAPL (LP-Maker fills it reliably) and note sMSFT as parked until a taker appears.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL position well-anchored within weekly horizon, no exit triggers hit. No new dir

Summary: w19–w26 all returned 'no misprice'; w26 approved sAAPL preemptively (tx 0xf1458336). Agent holds 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79, stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon. No new wake since w26 (193 min ago) — watcher is delta-only: it fires on NEW binary/option intents, not re-evaluation of existing book. LP-Maker's return is a market-structure eve

Agent is alive and correctly holding sAAPL mid-position. No binary/option misprice has been found across 8 consecutive book checks (w19–w26), and no new intents have appeared since w26 (193 min ago) to fire another wake — confirmed by 0 tokens in 5h. The structural gap: watcher only fires on delta (new intents), so LP-Maker's return — which could reprice the existing bear-yosher/mimic-ljuba binary book — does NOT trigger a re-evaluation.

2 settled deals lifetime ($0.55 pnl), both 'Swap settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus' (position entry/management, not binary/option takes). Zero binary or option deals settled. 8 consecutive wake cycles with no mispriced intent found. Market open (13:30 UTC) just fired — bear-yosher and mimic-ljuba are the o

Sound reasoning, but solving a narrowed version of the right problem. The agent correctly manages the sAAPL position (stop/forward/horizon) and hunts new binary/option intents. However, LP-Maker recovering from 931-min offline is a market-structure change — existing intents the agent evaluated as 'not mispriced' at w19–w25 may now be mispriced against LP's live quotes. The watcher's delta-only fil

sAAPL oracle <= $277.34 (stop) — not hit

sAAPL oracle >= $303.75 (forward) — not hit

Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon (blockchain nowTs >= 1781294400) — ~46h away

New binary/option/unknown intent appears on book (delta vs lastWakeBets set)

MISSING: LP-Maker recovery / market-structure change → re-evaluate existing book intents (watcher is delta-only, existing intents are invisible post-LP return)

MISSING: bear-yosher or mimic-ljuba posting new binary after market-open epoch — this WOULD fire the watcher IF the intent is new; confirmed the trigger path ex

Posts BinaryBets below current price — exactly the mispriced binary polymarket-ljuba hunts via Polymarket implied distribution

pidAlive=true, 17 deals, ok health — act

Posts BinaryBets mirroring recent directional flow — another source of takeable binaries

pidAlive=true, 16 deals, ok health — act

Writes ETH/BTC options (contrarian 50/30 engine) — primary source of option take opportunities

15 deals, ok health — active counterpart

Counterparty for sAAPL exit swap when stop/forward/horizon fires; not a binary/option source

76 deals, 8 open quotes, woke 18 min ago

Competes on near-decided binary takes, doesn't create takeable flow

Unmeasurable for the delta-blind window: if bear-yosher or mimic-ljuba posted a binary between w25 and w26 that was later filled/expired before w26's lastWakeBets snapshot, the watcher would never have seen it. Post-w26, no new binary/option intent has appeared (watcher would have fired). The more important miss is structural: LP-Maker's return at ~13:30 UTC may have shifted fair value on existing

Price triggers (stop/forward) are zero-LLM, sub-second response — correct for position management

New binary/option/unknown intent delta-check every 60s — right cadence for a taker mission

Horizon read from state.json with hardcoded fallback prevents stale horizon bug

Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback (24h before expiry) is mission-aligned: reassess maker candidates before expiry, not a sleep

kind === 'unknown' included alongside 'binary'/'option' — prudent catch for unparsed intents

Delta-only intent filter: existing intents already in lastWakeBets are never re-evaluated, so LP-Maker recovery (market-structure repricing) is invisible

No re-evaluation trigger on market-structure events (LP returning, large oracle move vs last-seen prices at prior wakes)

Add a periodic full-book re-evaluation trigger: every N polls (e.g. every 30 min), clear lastWakeBets to force a full re-scan of open intents — this catches repricing from LP-Maker recovery or oracle drift without abandoning the delta-effic

Delta-only intent filter blind to market-structure repricing

lastWakeBets accumulates all seen intent IDs; existing intents never re-evaluated. LP-Maker's recovery (8 quotes, active since ~13:30 UTC) changes the binary fair value landscape — any bear-yosher/mimic-ljuba binary already in the set won't trigger a re-evaluation wake.

In the watcher loop, track lastFullScanTs and if (nowTs - lastFullScanTs) > 1800, reset lastWakeBets = null to force full re-scan. This preserves delta efficiency while catching repricing events every 30 min.

nextFallbackMin 1808 (~30h) is the only guaranteed re-evaluation of full book

If no new binary/option intents appear AND sAAPL price doesn't move, the agent won't look at the book again until Jun11 20:00 UTC — a full day window where a mispriced existing intent could sit uncaptured.

The periodic reset of lastWakeBets (above fix) resolves this. Alternatively, add a secondary fallback at 4h (consistent with FALLBACK_MS min floor already in code) specifically for full-book re-scan.

Rebalancer-Lior

sAAPL largest unaddressed gap at -7.99pp after #929 filled. #952 covering sNVDA. #926 about to expire. DCA continues at

own intent #926/#952/#963 resolves or new favorable stock offer (fallback 20:00 UTC)

LP-Maker minimum = 12 USDC; every BTC intent posted at 7 USDC (w20, w21 #777 expired, w22 #831 expired, w23 #887 ~expired). 0xBd6a took 2/8 lifetime deals at small lots but no confirmed current book presence. No other demonstrated small-lot BTC taker in fleet.

intent #887 resolved (ownIntentResolved poll every 60s)

stocks market open 2026-06-10T13:30:00Z fallback (36 min remaining)

12 USDC minimum lot size; current BTC intent is 7 USDC — hard floor, not price-sensitive

Only demonstrated small-lot BTC taker (2/8 deals); external address, reliability unknown

Taker of mispriced/near-decided deals, not a BTC swap maker

Dual trigger is correct: intent resolution (fill/expire) fires first, stocks market open as hard fallback — no wasted sleep

60s poll interval appropriate for a patient DCA agent

Watcher is zero-LLM, has fallback, and armed correctly (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=36)

Watches for intent resolution but cannot detect lot-size mismatch — agent will post another 7 USDC intent at next wake unless the mission CLAUDE.md is corrected

Incorrect diagnosis of LP non-fill: oracle price vs lot-size floor

Agent's w23 log states 'LP may come alive at this lower oracle' — but LP-Maker minimum is 12 USDC regardless of price. 7 USDC lots are always below the floor. This reasoning will produce a 5th identical expiry.

Add to rebalancer-lior CLAUDE.md: 'LP-Maker minimum lot is 12 USDC; BTC DCA slices must be ≥ 12 USDC to be LP-fillable. Do not post below this threshold and attribute failure to oracle price.'

4 consecutive failed BTC DCA slices with zero lot-size adaptation

w20 → w21 (#777 expired) → w22 (#831 expired, agent logged '3rd attempt') → w23 (#887, almost certainly expired). Mission is DCA progress; zero fills = zero progress. BTC remains -7.4pp underweight.

Bump BTC DCA slice to 12–15 USDC to enter LP-fillable range. If budget constrains lot size below 12 USDC, document that BTC DCA is blocked until budget allows a fillable slice and shift focus to stock rebalancing (sAAPL underweight -15pp, stocks open in ~36 min).

Stacker-Massimo

Bid is tracking oracle correctly (posted at oracle×0.99 when oracle=$207.92; oracle unchanged). No sweepable sell-side.

Summary: Pre-open hold continues correctly. Watcher countdown has advanced from nextFallbackMin=189 (last run) to 129 now — consistent with ~60 min elapsed, no drift. Still armed (pidAlive=true) for epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC, ~99 min away from ~11:51 UTC now). Portfolio unchanged: 0.004928 sNVDA ($1.02), 9.00 USDC free. Both settled deals were with LP-Maker-Matheus

Watcher is correctly armed to fire at 13:30 UTC equity open (epoch 1781098200, fallback at 14:00 UTC). LP-Maker-Matheus is live with sNVDA quotes (12 USDC lot posted), and Stacker has 2 confirmed fills with LP-Maker proving the sub-lot fill path works. 9.00 USDC remains to deploy at 0.50 USDC/wake (~18 more wakes to exhaust budget).

Pre-market window; CLAUDE.md enforces 09:30–16:00 ET only. No fills possible now by design. 2 settled deals both with LP-Maker-Matheus confirm the path clears at open.

Sound and solving the right problem. w20 correctly identified 1.01% oracle drift and rotated intent 752→753 at refreshed price (oracle×0.99). w21–w26 held cleanly on market-hours logic with no redundant on-chain action. No churn — 22 repeat wakes are pre-open holds, not re-deriving the same bad move.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) via 30-second poll loop

fallback at 14:00 UTC (open + 30 min) if poll misses

Both settled deals were LP-Maker fills; LP has live sNVDA quote (12 USDC lot) and is confirmed able to fill Stacker's 0.50 USDC slices

none — pre-market, trading correctly blocked by CLAUDE.md market-hours rule; LP-Maker's sNVDA quote is live but Stacker cannot and should not act before 13:30 UTC

Fires exactly at epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) — the only moment Stacker is allowed to act

30-second poll cadence is appropriate: lightweight, zero-LLM, no book dependency

Fallback at open+30 min (14:00 UTC) is a sensible safety net; nextFallbackMin=129 confirms it resolves to ~14:00 UTC from current ~11:51 UTC

No book-watching needed for a pure DCA mission — correctly omitted

fallbackMs when already past open evaluates to 30 min from invocation time, which is correct but implicit — a comment would prevent future confusion

No functional change needed; the script is mission-fit. Optional: add inline comment explaining the post-open fallbackMs edge case for maintainability.

LP lot-size headroom shrinks as sNVDA price rises

LP posts 12 USDC lots; Stacker posts 0.50 USDC. Confirmed fills show LP accepts sub-lot today, but if LP tightens minimums or oracle price moves, 0.50 USDC may become un-fillable. Currently 9.00 USDC / 18 wakes remaining.

Monitor: if next fill at 13:30 fails despite LP live, check whether LP minimum crossed 0.50 USDC threshold and adjust slice size in CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

Both actionable signals require selling assets I don't hold. No buy-dip opportunity at or above threshold. Waiting for a

buy-dip ≥1.5% on any asset OR new resting sell intent on dipped asset (fallback 15:31 UTC)

Summary: Market-open wake (w19, 13:31 UTC) fired as expected but found no buy-dip signal ≥1.5% — SSV has recovered above the 1.98 threshold since the w11 unfilled intent. sNVDA sell remains permanently blocked by zero position (not market hours alone). LP-Maker's return confirms the fill path exists for future buys, but no current dislocation meets threshold. Agent c

w19 market-open check: zero buy signals, zero sell signals. SSV trailing avg 2.01 → threshold 1.98; SSV cleared that level since w11's -1.89% dip (which expired unfilled with LP offline). LP back does not produce a deal — the signal itself isn't there today. sNVDA sell is double-blocked structurally. Agent correctly observing; next live trigger requires SSV/BTC/ETH/equity to dip ≥1.5% below their w19 trailing averages.

3 deals all ↔ LP-Maker; $100.23 portfolio is 100% USDC — no asset inventory means sell-strength path (fade upside dislocations) is permanently inert. Buy-dip path functional but no current dislocation ≥1.5%: w19 confirms SSV recovered, no other asset breached threshold. w14/w15/w17/w18/w19 all repor

Sound, on-mission, solving the right problem. Each wake correctly classifies the zero-dislocation environment rather than forcing a trade. The seenIntents deduplication on the sell-intent fire path is correct. The one gap: agent never reasons about building inventory so the sell-strength path unlocks — it only waits for buy-dip. Five consecutive no-trade wakes suggest the trailing averages may be

Oracle price < trailing_avg × 0.985 for any of BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT

New resting sell intent on any BUY_CANDIDATES asset when spot < trailing_avg × 0.995

All 3 settled deals; back online with 8 open quotes; confirmed fill path for buy-dip swaps

active — woke 18 min ago, 74 deals, heal

9 open baiting intents; if any are sell-side (give asset / want USDC) on a dipped asset, swing's newSells watcher path would fire

Posts swap intents; could offer asset-for-USDC legs swing could take if dislocation aligns

armed, but lot-size floor issue independ

Buys sNVDA (same direction as any swing buy); no opposing leg available

None since LP recovered. w11 SSV dip (-1.89%) was the last signal — LP offline then; that window is closed. No new ≥1.5% dislocations detected across w17/w18/w19 with LP live. Vulture's 9 open intents are unverified as sell-side on dipped assets — the watcher's newSells path would catch these if they qualify; no evidence they do.

Dual fire paths: oracle-price dip poll AND new resting sell-intent scan — catches both market moves and counterparty flow

60s poll cadence is efficient without being sub-minute; 2h fallback matches the patient fade-dislocation style

seenIntents Set correctly deduplicates — only fires on genuinely new sell intents, no false positives

Zero-LLM watcher; trailing averages captured at deploy time so no drift within the 2h window

No sell-strength fire path: watcher hardwires BUY_CANDIDATES with no SELL_CANDIDATES — after a successful buy, the complementary sell-above-avg trigger is never

Trailing averages are frozen at wake deploy; over a 2h window with LP actively quoting, the true trailing avg could drift enough to shift threshold by ~0.5-1%

After a buy deal settles, emit the acquired asset + entry price into the next wake context and add a sell-strength arm (spot > trailing_avg × 1.015) to fire when swing can actually fade the upside. This unlocks the full fade-dislocation loo

Sell-strength path permanently inoperable

swing-nikita holds 100% USDC ($100.23). The mission says 'sell those stretched above' but the watcher has no sell-strength trigger and the agent has no inventory to sell. Five consecutive wakes (w14–w19) report the same double-block. This is not a temporary condition — it's structural until a buy ex

After the next successful buy deal, update CLAUDE.md to set the acquired asset as a SELL_CANDIDATE in the following wake script, with sell trigger at trailing_avg × 1.015. Alternatively allow the agent to carry a small multi-asset starter position so both sides of the fade can activate.

Trailing averages stale across wake window

TRAILING values are hardcoded at wake-deploy (w19 values: SSV=2.01, BTC=61368.82, etc.) and persist for the full 2h watch window. If the true 24h trailing avg shifts materially, the threshold could fire early or miss a valid signal.

Minor: low priority given patient mission cadence. If false fires become a pattern, add a fresh trailing-avg fetch at each poll tick (one readPrice call already runs; extend it to include a rolling-avg endpoint if available in belt.tools).

Vulture-Andrew

No edges cleared 1% gate; watcher handled quote hygiene autonomously between wakes.

17 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781103001; next poll 71s

Summary: LP recovery unblocked vulture immediately: rebalance buys 935/932 (sNVDA/sMSFT) settled instantly at w63 (13:47) as deals 98/99, +$0.28 edge — confirming LP was the binding constraint. Bait sells 874 sAAPL 1%, 875 sMSFT 1%, 876 SSV 2.21% remain open; LP does not take bait sells (it's a neutral maker, not a directional taker), so fills depend on momentum/swin

LP return directly triggered instant fills on rebalance buys 935/932 (+$0.28, deals 98/99) at w63. The 8 bait sells still open are now waiting on directional takers (momentum/swing/stacker all live at market open) — LP cannot fill bait sells by design. No fill blockage remains; this is normal patient bait posture.

9 of 11 recent settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; rebalance buys 935/932 settled instantly once LP returned (w63 13:47); bait sells 874/875/876 require directional takers not LP — momentum/swing/stacker live but haven't crossed yet this cycle

Sound and solving the right problem. w63 correctly posted rebalance buys immediately on LP recovery and captured +$0.28 instantly. w64 correctly pruned 950 (eroded to 0.36% below 0.5% floor) and 941 (stale after 0.31% oracle drift). Bait sell hold decision (≥1% with longer TTL vs rivals at 1% floor) is quantitatively justified per playbook. No churn detected.

scan-edges: new takeable edge ≥1% (excluding pre-seeded honeypots 779/836/869)

check-my-quotes: cancelCmds.length > 0 (erosion/undercut)

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest intent expiry

MISSING: no immediate trigger when LP posts a matching quote — relies on 30s poll cycle, so LP quote arrival can lag up to 30s before vulture fires

Primary swap counterparty (9/11 recent deals); fills rebalance buys instantly on return — confirmed deals 98/99

Secondary swap counterparty, 3/11 recent settled deals — unknown agent but reliably active

Could take sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA bait sells if these are the strongest movers this wake; directional taker

Fades dislocations — could take vulture's bait sells if asset stretched above trailing avg

Only buys sNVDA at 0.50 USDC/wake — lot size too small for vulture's bait sells

Takes mispriced swaps on fast CEX feed; could cross vulture's bait sells if oracle lags

None. w57–w62 correctly report no takeable edges ≥1%. Watcher can see the book via scan-edges (measurable). Honeypot pre-seed (779/836/869) prevents false positives. Hold decisions in w57/w60/w61 are correct per playbook.

Fires on new takeable edge ≥1% via scan-edges — directly aligned with vulture's pick-off mission

check-my-quotes erosion/undercut trigger prevents free pick-off of stale quotes

Pre-expiry trigger (~5 min before soonest expiry) protects against TTL-lapse waste

seenEdgeIds pre-seeded with confirmed honeypots (779/836/869) — zero-LLM guard

30s poll cadence + 2h hard fallback — appropriate for opportunistic agent

30s poll means up to 30s lag between LP posting a matching quote and vulture firing — suboptimal for competitive fill race

No explicit LP-quote-arrival event trigger; relies on scan-edges polling rather than reactive signal

Add a lightweight LP-quote monitor: check if LP's open quotes include any asset vulture holds in rebalance deficit, and fire immediately if a match appears — closes the 30s lag window that could cost fills in a competitive market-open envir

[object Object] logging in wake descriptions

w59, w61, w62, w63, w64 all show '[object Object]' in the wake log summary line — an object is being string-interpolated without .toString() or JSON.stringify(). Degrades historical analysis readability.

Find the wake-log string concatenation where the state/result object is interpolated and replace with JSON.stringify(obj) or obj.summary / obj.action fields.

Realized PnL -$1.20 on 34 deals at 15.1% pool spend ($22.82/5h)

34 deals with $55.43 lifetime token cost and -$1.20 realized PnL means edge capture is not yet covering LLM costs. The +$0.28 from deals 98/99 is directionally correct but the rate needs to accelerate now LP is live.

Monitor PnL-per-deal over next 5 wakes with LP active; if bait sells remain unfilled >60 min into market-open epoch, lower bait floor from 1% to 0.75% to attract momentum/swing flow.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

LP EPISODIC, BUG FLEET-WIDE

LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ Vulture-Andrew, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Arb-Hunter-Tom, Polymarket-Ljuba, 0x5F79, 0xBd6a, 0xb591

Hub active: 8 open quotes, 13/16 most-recent settled deals LP-involved — but wat

Bear-Yosher → Mimic-Ljuba (11/16 lifetime fills)

Partnership functional but Mimic watcher process died before 13:30 UTC open trig

Thin: dealId 100 (ETH PUT, $0.24 premium) settled at 14:47 UTC; book empty again

Vulture-Andrew → Momentum-Nikita, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo

9 open baits (874 sAAPL 1%, 875 sMSFT 1%, 876 SSV 2.21% + 6 others); directional

FROZEN — both null-deployed for 7 consecutive cycles; wake_script_source=null, $

armWatcher promise-drop (core SDK) kills watcher post-execution without preventing quote posting

LP-Maker ran, posted 8 quotes, settled deals — then watcher died. Quotes expire in ~55 min, triggering the next dark per

LP: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null post-execution; 8 open quotes expiring 51–59 min from board time; same bug hit Bear-Yosher at w29b/w30 (simultaneous fires, duplicate bets); Mimic

LP-Maker episodic dark periods (931-min prior outage, next gap imminent in ~55 min)

Arb-Hunter fill rate collapsed to 1.8% (2/111 wakes) during outage; only recovered to ~9% in ~22 post-LP-return wakes. V

Arb-hunter: 4/134 lifetime deals, 2 fills in post-LP wakes; Vulture deals 98/99 settled at w63 post-LP-return; 9/11 vulture recent settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus

Rebalancer-Lior DCA lot = 7 USDC vs LP-Maker minimum = 12 USDC (agent miscalibration, not oracle price)

4 consecutive BTC intents (#777, #831, #887, + current) expired unfilled. LP-Maker's return does NOT fix this — the floo

Intents #777/#831/#887 + 2 current open at 7 USDC; LP minimum confirmed 12 USDC; 0xBd6a has no confirmed current book presence at small lots; no other demonstrated sub-12 USDC BTC taker active in flee

Index-Maker and Index-Taker both null-deployed — independent co-failure, no sequencing relationship

Entire index market segment produces zero flow. Neither side has ever posted or taken; no self-healing mechanism exists.

7 consecutive cycles: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=$0 for both; dependency theory ruled out in cycle 6

Vulture bait sells (874/875/876) require directional takers (momentum/swing/stacker), not the neutral LP-Maker hub

LP's return unblocked rebalance buys (deals 98/99) but does nothing for bait sells. Bait fills depend on momentum/swing

Bait intents 874/875/876 open 40–57 min; momentum: no 2pp gap at w16; swing: no dislocation ≥1.5% at w19; stacker: armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null

Mimic-Ljuba watcher process died before 13:30 UTC market-open trigger

Bear-Yosher's most reliable copier (11/16 lifetime fills) is blind during the highest-activity epoch. Bear's 1 open inte

Mimic: pidAlive=true (re-armed), nextFallbackMin=34; 0 BinaryBet fills since w55 (10:30 UTC); Bear: 1 open intent, watcher armed with 76-min fallback

armWatcher promise-drop is hitting 3 agents this cycle — LP dark window imminent in ~55 min

LP-Maker (watcher dead post-execution), Bear-Yosher (w29b/w30 duplicate fires), and Mimic-Ljuba (process death before market-open) all share one root cause. LP-Maker's 8 open quotes expire in 51–59 min; without a core fix or manual re-trigger, the fleet loses its primary liquidity hub again.

LP: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; Bear: w29b/w30 simultaneous fires, self-repaired at w31; Mimic: process dead pre-13:30 UTC, nextFallbackMin=34

Fix armWatcher promise-drop in core SDK — ensure fallback timer is registered before any async gap. Immediate: manually trigger LP-Maker wake before quote expiry (~55 min window).

Index market frozen for 7 cycles: no self-recovery path exists

Both index-maker and index-taker have wake_script_source=null and $0 lifetime tokens across 7 consecutive cycles. No mechanism exists to bootstrap from null state — requires manual deployment. This blocks an entire market segment with no agent-side workaround.

7 cycles × 2 agents: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=$0; independent co-failure confirmed (not sequencing)

Manually deploy index-maker and index-taker wake scripts. Verify CLAUDE.md + watcher boot sequence. Add board alert for wake_script_source=null to catch this at cycle 1, not cycle 7.

Rebalancer-Lior DCA lot (7 USDC) permanently below LP minimum (12 USDC): 4th consecutive failure

Intents #777, #831, #887, and current 7 USDC BTC lots all expired or will expire unfilled. LP-Maker's return is irrelevant — the constraint is lot size, not oracle price or LP availability. The agent's w23 self-diagnosis ('LP may come alive at lower oracle') is incorrect and will produce a 5th failure.

3 confirmed expired + 2 currently open at 7 USDC; LP-Maker minimum = 12 USDC confirmed; no current sub-12 USDC BTC taker in fleet

Update rebalancer-lior CLAUDE.md: raise BTC DCA lot to ≥12 USDC. Correct reasoning frame from 'oracle price gap' to 'lot-size floor vs counterparty minimum.'

Mimic-Ljuba blind during market-open epoch — Bear partnership disrupted at peak activity

Mimic's watcher process died before 13:30 UTC, missing the trigger entirely. The Bear↔Mimic partnership drives 11/16 of Mimic's lifetime fills and is the BinaryBet market's only active flow. Bear has 1 open intent aging 17+ min uncopied; 34 min until Mimic's fallback fires.

Mimic: pidAlive=true (re-armed post-death), nextFallbackMin=34; 0 BinaryBet fills since 10:30 UTC (w55); Bear: 1 open intent, watcher armed/nextFallbackMin=76

Fix watcher process lifecycle so process death triggers immediate re-arm. Interim: reduce Mimic fallback interval to ≤15 min during 09:30–16:00 ET market hours.

LP recovery confirmed: deals 98/99 settled instantly, arb-hunter fill rate 5× — LP was the binding constraint

Vulture rebalance buys 935 (sNVDA) and 932 (sMSFT) settled as deals 98/99 within minutes of LP-Maker's return (w63, 13:47 UTC). Arb-hunter fill rate jumped from 1.8% (2/111 pre-LP wakes) to ~9% (2/22 post-LP wakes). 13/16 most-recent settled deals are LP-involved.

Deals 98/99 settled at w63 post-LP-return; arb-hunter w128 (+35bps SSV) and w131 (+22bps ETH) both post-LP; 13/16 recent deals LP-involved

No fix needed — LP execution is sound. Priority: prevent the next dark period (quote expiry in ~55 min via core promise-drop fix or manual re-trigger).

Option pipeline functional: templateHash fix validated, option-taker acting immediately on supply

Option-Taker took ETH PUT (dealId 100, strike $1,631.46, $0.24 premium) at 14:47 UTC — the first deal since the templateHash fix. Supply rate (~1 option per multi-hour epoch) is the only remaining constraint. Option-writer's sMSFT rotation remains blocked (4 failed swaps 530/533/764/804), but that is an independent path.

dealId 100: option-taker ↔ option-writer-matheus; watcher armed, nextFallbackMin=103; 0 open option intents now; option-writer nextFallbackMin=238

No fix needed for option-taker. Investigate option-writer sMSFT swap failures (530/533/764/804) — LP may not trade sMSFT belt tokens; Bear-Yosher is candidate taker.

Fix armWatcher promise-drop: ensure fallback timer registration is synchronous before any async gap. This single fix restores LP-Maker continuity (preventing ~55-min dark window), eliminates Bear-Yosher duplicate-fire risk, and prevents Mimic process-death gaps at market-open. Hi

Manually trigger LP-Maker wake before quote expiry (~55 min) to bridge until core fix lands. Without this, fleet loses primary liquidity hub again and vulture rebalance buys, arb-hunter, swing, stacker fills all stall.

Deploy index-maker and index-taker wake scripts — 7-cycle null state with no self-recovery. Add board alert for wake_script_source=null at cycle 1.

Update rebalancer-lior CLAUDE.md: raise BTC DCA lot to ≥12 USDC and reframe reasoning from oracle-price to lot-size-floor. Prevents guaranteed 5th failure next wake.

Better — LP-Maker recovered from 931-min offline to 8 active quotes + recent deals with 5 distinct counterparties (0x5F79, Polymarket-Ljuba, 0xb591, Swing-Nikita, Vulture-Andrew, Stacker-Massimo), validating the last headline; market-open epoch (13:30 UTC) firing now with momentum/swing/stacker all

LP-Maker recovery confirmed: 74 deals, 8 open quotes, woke 18 min ago — primary fill-side blocker gone for vulture (9 open intents), swing, stacker, arb-hunter

Rebalancer-Lior lot-size floor persists: 4th consecutive BTC failure (intents #777/#831/#887 + 2 current at 7 USDC each) vs LP minimum 12 USDC — LP's return does NOT fix this

Index-maker/index-taker: 7th consecutive null cycle (armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0 tokens, 0 wakes both) — confirmed structural deployment failure, no automatic recovery path

Market open 13:30 UTC firing: momentum (pidAlive=true, woke 18 min ago), swing (pidAlive=true), stacker (just fired, now armed=false) — deal flow test for LP recovery

Vulture's 9 open baiting intents (posted 20–57 min ago) now have LP as active counterparty — watch for rapid fill acceleration this cycle

With LP-Maker's 8 quotes now live (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT/SSV/BTC/ETH), did arb-hunter's last wake (1 min ago) detect any CEX/on-chain spread worth taking against LP's new rates — and is the 27-min fallback cadence tight enough to capture the ma

Bear shows 0 open intents and woke 152 min ago (next wake ~93 min) — with LP now back and the 'exactly-one-resting-bet' invariant requiring a live posting, is Bear overdue to post a new binary bet, or did it correctly evaluate no edge and h

7th null cycle — confirm armed=false/pidAlive=false/0 wakes/$0 tokens still, and whether any external trigger (new file, config change, partial boot artifact) has appeared since last cycle that would change the 'confirmed structural deploym

7th null cycle — same as index-maker: confirm identical null state and validate the fully-refuted dependency theory (both maker and taker are independently dead, not a sequencing issue).

LP-Maker's recovery is the single biggest delta this cycle — quantify: how many deals since its last confirmed wake (w44 at 06-09T17:19), is the recovery stable or is it showing promise-drop symptoms again, and are its 3 soonest-expiring qu

Mimic woke 198 min ago (next fallback 90 min) with 0 open intents and Bear also showing 0 open intents — with LP back and binary flow potentially resuming, should Mimic already be posting a directional bet independently, or is it correctly

Momentum is pidAlive=true and woke 18 min ago right at the 13:30 UTC market-open trigger — what asset did it select as the strongest mover, did it post a swap intent, and does LP's active quoting (sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL all on book) provide a vi

Option-Writer shows 0 open intents (PUT 779 expired) and woke 9 min ago — did option-taker's last scan (47 min ago) or the upcoming one find any newly-posted options from option-writer's most recent wake, or is the supply-side still zero ac

Option-Writer woke 9 min ago with sMSFT rotation stuck at 4 failed swaps (530/533/764/804) and LP now active — did this wake successfully execute the sMSFT swap OR pivot the rotation to sAAPL/sNVDA, and did it post a new option intent post-

Polymarket-Ljuba is pidAlive=true polling every 60s with 0 open intents (woke 190 min ago) — with LP back and bear/mimic binary flow potentially resuming around market open, has it found any mispriced BinaryBet or Option to take in the last

Lior woke 16 min ago and has 2 open intents both at 7 USDC (sAAPL 42m left, BTC 15m left) — LP is back but its minimum lot is 12 USDC; did Lior's w24+ wake diagnose and correct the lot-size floor, or is it still posting 7 USDC lots that LP

Stacker fired at market open and is now unarmed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, woke 2 min ago) — what did it do: did it post the 0.50 USDC sNVDA intent, and with LP actively quoting sNVDA (0.06 sNVDA → 12.52 USDC on book), did the fill execu

Swing is pidAlive=true armed for 13:30 UTC market open (woke 18 min ago, nextFallbackMin=102) — with LP back quoting SSV/BTC/ETH, did swing's market-open wake see a buy signal on SSV or BTC dip, and is the sNVDA sell still blocked by zero p

Vulture has 9 open intents posted 20–57 min ago that were starved with LP offline — with LP now back and active, which of vulture's 9 intents (sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA buy/sell, SSV/ETH/BTC swaps) overlap LP's current quotes, and have any filled i

rebalancer-lior: Increase BTC (and all) DCA lot sizes from 7 USDC to ≥12 USDC — LP-Maker's minimum is a hard floor; 4 consecutive failures (#777/#831/#887 + 2 current) confirm 7 USDC will never fill r

index-maker / index-taker: Escalate to manual deployment intervention — 7 consecutive null cycles with zero automatic recovery signal; no agent action can unblock this

option-writer-matheus: Unblock sMSFT rotation (4 failed swaps) — either confirm LP's recovered sMSFT quote (0.03 sMSFT → 12.14 USDC, 45m left) is within reach of writer's swap params, or pivot rotatio

Monitor LP-Maker stability: last crash triggered by promise-drop at w44 armWatcher — confirm recovered wakes (w45+) are not silently re-hitting the same bug by watching for another unexplained offline

stacker-massimo lot-size check: LP's sNVDA quote is 0.06 sNVDA → 12.52 USDC — stacker's 0.50 USDC lot is 25x below LP's minimum; if stacker just posted 0.50 USDC, it will fail for the same structural