account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary bet has CEX taker in-money (all taker-negative). No swap edges above 10bps threshold. All new intents require

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — watcher process did not survive W11 (06-08T19:49); no rearm in 589min; pattern identical to 8/9 other dead agents (SDK epidemic). No agent-side logic fault detected in active wakes.

New intent appears on book (any template)

Bet #32 enters 30-min expiry window AND BTC CEX ≥ $64,320 — NOW DEAD: bet #32 expiryUnix ~1781020800 has passed

30-min hard fallback — only surviving trigger if process were alive

Only confirmed counterparty (W4 deal); posts stale/edge swaps arb-hunter can take as pure taker

Posts near-decided options arb-hunter could take if CEX-confirmed ITM, but W10 logged 'Option template not in mission' — agent may lack Opti

Maker of BinaryBets arb-hunter could theoretically take, but bear-yosher is itself dead (654min)

30-min fallback cadence matches binary bet windows (30–60min typical) — correct for this mission

CEX price check gated strictly to the 30-min expiry window — avoids wasting calls

Baseline 'seen' set on first tick prevents firing on already-known intents

4s CEX timeout with AbortController — robust against hung feeds

new-intent trigger covers the swap-snipe fallback surface cleanly

ANCHORS hard-coded from W11 scan — bet #32 expiryUnix now past, CEX-trigger path permanently dead until next wake rewrites the script

No dynamic bet-scan in the watcher itself — ANCHORS go stale across every crash/recovery cycle

No guard: if ANCHORS is empty (all expired), script silently falls back to only new-intent + 30-min fallback with no log warning

SDK epidemic kill — watcher process does not survive wake exit

armed=false, pidAlive=false, 589min since last wake — identical signature to 8 other dead agents. Platform is not re-launching watchers after agent exits.

Fleet-wide SDK fix: ensure watcher process is re-spawned or kept alive independently of the agent wake process.

Stale ANCHORS — bet #32 expired, CEX-trigger path dead

Current wake script has bet #32 at expiryUnix ≈1781020800 which has now passed. Even on cold restart, trigger #2 will never fire; agent will only wake on new intents or 30-min fallback, missing any near-decided binaries on the book.

Rewrite watcher to scan open BinaryBet intents dynamically at startup and build ANCHORS from live data rather than hard-coding from the last wake's scan.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

No executable action advances the thesis this wake. Bear bet properly anchored at 24h TTL. Stock DCA window opens at 13:

intent-414 resolved | ETH +1.5% adverse | US mkt open 13:30 | new tech sell | 4h

Summary: 716min crashed (+60min from 656min, sixth consecutive +60/cycle decay, SDK epidemic confirmed). BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba still shows 'live' — not settled or resolved this cycle. ETH at ~$1,651 is ~$32 below the $1,682.93 baseline, placing the BELOW bet directionally in-the-money by ~1.9%; realized PnL -$2.36 reflects the swap leg (LP-Maker-Matheus) only. Inte

Bear-Yosher has been crashed 716min (SDK epidemic, armed=false/pidAlive=false); its only active position — a BELOW bet against Mimic-Ljuba — is currently ~1.9% in-the-money with ETH at ~$1,651 vs $1,682.93 baseline, but remains unresolved ('live'). Intent 48 is off the book; watcher would fire immediately on recovery.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; 716min with zero self-recovery across six cycles; matches SDK epidemic pattern in 8/12 agents

Single wake (06-08T18:42) was on-mission and sound: SHORT thesis intact, posted BELOW bet (intent 48), started sNVDA basket. Sound reasoning solving the right problem — execution fully blocked by platform crash since.

Intent 48 resolution (filled or expired)

ETH adverse move >= +1.5% from $1,682.93 baseline

New tech-stock sell intent (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT posterGives)

MISSING: BTC adverse price trigger (mission explicitly shorts BTC, watcher only watches ETH)

Active live BinaryBet relationship; Mimic-Ljuba's mission is to accept winnable open bets re-priced to oracle — natural BELOW-bet counterpar

Already settled a swap; provides swap liquidity for stock-basket DCA legs

Stock-basket component (sNVDA) could cross with option-writer's stock intents if they post sNVDA

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book while crashed since 06-08T18:42

Intent-48 resolution trigger ensures immediate wake when the BELOW bet settles or expires — and since open_intents=0, fires on first loop pass after recovery

ETH +1.5% adverse circuit-breaker is proportionate for a bear-thesis agent holding a BELOW position

Tech-sell intent scanner directly supports the stock-basket DCA mission (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

4h hard fallback prevents indefinite silence; zero-LLM poll; correct structure

No BTC adverse price monitor — mission explicitly shorts BTC/ETH but only ETH is guarded

Intent 48 is already off the book (open_intents=0); on recovery the watcher correctly fires immediately, but there is no awareness that the BinaryBet is now 'li

Add a BTC adverse move trigger mirroring the ETH check (+1.5% from a BTC baseline captured at w1) so both legs of the SHORT thesis have a circuit-breaker

SDK epidemic: watcher cannot re-arm

armed=false/pidAlive=false for 716min; same crash pattern as 8/12 agents; 4h fallback never fired because the process died before it could

Identify and fix the SDK process crash preventing watcher re-arm; this is the single blocker for all affected agents including Bear-Yosher

BTC not monitored despite being in mission

Mission says 'Short ETH/BTC by default'; wake script only checks ETH price for adverse moves; a BTC rally against the short thesis would go undetected until the 4h fallback

Add BTC adverse move check (+1.5% from a BTC baseline logged at wake time) alongside the existing ETH check in current.ts

Live BinaryBet unmonitored — expiry unknown

BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba is 'live' with no visible expiry in the data; if the bet expires unfavorably while crashed, agent misses the settlement and the -$2.36 realized PnL deepens without any responsive action

On next wake, log the BinaryBet expiry timestamp and add an expiry-proximity trigger (fire N minutes before expiry) to the watcher so the agent can act before outcome is locked

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Intent 399: 80.5bps well above τ=3bps. ETH ask 398 stale-narrow (10.6bps vs 30bps target). ETH bid 397 stale-wide (34.2b

oracle-bid floor guard / new fillable intent / 10m quote-expiry fallback

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

deal #3 expires OR new ≥3pp BinaryBet appears (or 24h fallback)

Summary: Complete reversal from prior summary: agent went from dead (0 wakes, armed=false, null script) to 7 wakes and 1 settled deal (Deal #3, BinaryBet ↔ Bear-Yosher) this cycle. Initialized, operational, and holding an active position. However, the pricing logic uses a hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 flat prior — the agent took the 'above $65k in 24h' side when BTC oracle

Agent is live (7 wakes, 1 deal, armed, pid alive) — a full reversal from last run. Deal #3's claimed +22pp edge is likely illusory: FAIR_PROB is hardcoded at 0.5 regardless of oracle distance, so every out-of-the-money binary looks like an edge. The one realized deal may be a losing position.

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own text), yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM.

Sound discipline (one-deliberate-move rule, hold rather than churn, waits for expiry signal) — but solving the wrong problem. The edge gate uses a 50/50 flat prior for a clearly directional binary, so it will systematically take deep-OTM positions and call them profitable. The reasoning is coherent but the pricing model is wrong.

Deal #3 expiry at DEAL_EXPIRY_TS (2026-06-09T14:10Z)

New BinaryBet on book with takerEdgePp ≥ 3pp (vs flat FAIR_PROB=0.5)

MISSING: oracle-adjusted fair probability — watcher fires on 'edge vs 0.5' not 'edge vs calibrated prob'

Already traded (Deal #3); posts BTC directional BinaryBets that mimic-ljuba takes; missions complement

Both trade BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba also posts small-shade binaries mimic-ljuba could mirror

Picks off mispriced bets; could take mimic-ljuba's self-posted directional intents

Posts Options, not BinaryBets — different template, no structural overlap

None identifiable from current data — watcher is reading the live book and evaluating new BinaryBets each loop. However, the flat-prior edge filter may have passed bad intents (like Deal #3) while the oracle-calibrated filter would have blocked them. Missed opportunities on the downside (bad bets accepted) are more likely than missed good ones.

Hardcodes DEAL_ID + DEAL_EXPIRY_TS — correct single-deal tracking pattern

Fires on deal expiry OR new high-edge bet — dual trigger fits hold-then-rotate mission

newMatches() pattern avoids re-evaluating already-seen intents

24h fallback is proportionate to deal horizon

FAIR_PROB=0.5 is hardcoded flat prior — correct only for a coin-flip binary; any bet with a known oracle price has a non-flat fair distribution

No oracle-distance calibration: takerEdgePp = (0.5 - takerProb)*100 will mark any bet where taker puts up <50% as 'edge', including deep OTM positions

Edge floor of 3pp vs wrong fair value gives a false gate

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with an oracle-calibrated fair probability: read the current oracle price and the bet's strike/direction, compute fair prob via a simple log-normal or historical vol estimate, then derive takerEdgePp against that. One

Flat FAIR_PROB=0.5 invalidates edge calculations for directional binaries

hasEdge() uses (0.5 - takerProb)*100 as edge. For a BTC above $65k bet with oracle at $63,383, true fair prob is ~12–18%; the flat prior makes the bet look like +32–38pp edge when true edge may be negative. Deal #3 was likely taken at negative EV.

Read oracle price + bet strike + direction in the wake loop; compute fair prob via historical vol (e.g., 80% annualized → ~15% daily σ → lognormal CDF for strike distance); use that as FAIR_PROB instead of 0.5. Can be inlined in hasEdge() with a belt.tools.readOracle call.

Self-posted intent (w1) untracked by watcher

w1 posted a directional BTC bet as maker; the watcher only monitors Deal #3 expiry and incoming taker opportunities — no monitoring of whether the self-posted intent got filled or expired.

After each self-post, store the intentId in watcher state and add a fireWake trigger when that intent settles or expires.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Edge threshold unmet on both fast and slow lookbacks. Mixed signals, declining tape. No book orders at fair-or-better va

US market open 13:30 UTC, crypto >3% move, or 4h fallback

Summary: Wake script still NOT updated — absolute 3% threshold persists vs mission's 2pp relative-gap conviction criterion. The watcher that was at nextFallbackMin=2 last cycle has since fired (market-open 13:30 UTC or 4h fallback from w3 10:38 UTC), but the watcher is now armed=false/pidAlive=false — crashed post-fire without re-arming. Baselines rolled forward to w

Watcher crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null) after what should have been the 13:30 UTC market-open trigger or the 4h fallback from w3 at 10:38 UTC — the agent has been dark for 252 min. The structural trigger mismatch (absolute 3% hard-coded vs 2pp relative-gap mission threshold) is unresolved, meaning even when the watcher re-arms it will not fire on the ETH/BTC dislocation that has been visible since w2. One settled deal (vs LP-Maker-Matheus), realized PnL −$0.39.

Wake script THRESHOLD=0.03 checks abs((cur−base)/base) per-asset; ETH absolute move from w3 baseline ($1,669.02) is ~−0.15% (ETH ~$1,666 area), BTC absolute move is ~0% — neither clears 3%. Mission calls for ETH/BTC relative gap ≥2pp, which has been met since w2 (06-09T06:27). No relative-gap check

Agent reasoning in w2/w3 correctly identifies the relative ETH/BTC gap and correctly notes it doesn't clear the watcher's absolute threshold — the agent knows the script is wrong but cannot self-correct it. Sound diagnosis; wrong instrument. The watcher loop is solving a slightly different problem than the mission specifies, and the per-wake LLM correctly surfaces this but has no path to fix it.

US market open 13:30 UTC 2026-06-09 (one-time, already past — will not re-trigger today)

Per-asset absolute move ≥3% from w3 baselines (BTC $62,620.56, ETH $1,669.02, SSV $2.05)

4h fallback from last arm (fired; watcher did not re-arm)

MISSING: ETH/BTC relative-gap ≥2pp trigger — the actual mission conviction criterion

Only counterparty for the one settled swap; deep swap inventory and oracle pricing match momentum's delivered-swap approach

CRASHED — armed=false/pidAlive=false, 12

Also executes delivered swaps but is DCA/portfolio-driven; could be on the other side of a BTC or ETH swap if directions align

armed, intent #385 (7 USDC→ETH) open wit

Fades dislocations via delivered swaps; ETH stretched below trailing avg could mean swing-nikita wants to buy ETH while momentum-nikita want

health ok, armed status not confirmed th

ETH/BTC relative gap of ~2.4–2.5pp has been present since w2 (06-09T06:27, ~8h ago). Mission threshold is 2pp. The agent should have concentrated into BTC (outperformer) or shed ETH during this window. No wake fired on this signal because the watcher checks absolute moves only. Additionally, rebalancer-lior's intent #385 (7 USDC→ETH) was open this cycle — momentum-nikita could have taken the other

4h fallback is appropriate cadence for a momentum agent — patient between signals

Baselines rolled forward each wake (now w3 prices) so absolute threshold drifts with the market rather than anchoring to stale w1 prices

Market-open trigger is mission-sound — stocks enter ranking universe at 13:30 UTC

Zero-LLM, has fallback, sub-60s poll interval (60_000ms) is fine

No relative-gap check: mission conviction fires at ETH/BTC spread ≥2pp; script has no such computation

Market-open trigger is one-shot for today's date hardcoded as string — will never fire again after 13:30 UTC 2026-06-09 passes

Watcher did not re-arm after firing — armed=false/pidAlive=false with nextFallbackMin=null suggests the post-wake watcher start failed silently

Replace the per-asset absolute-move check with a relative-gap check: compute (ethMove − btcMove) where each move is (cur−base)/base from rolling baselines; fire when |relativeGap| ≥ 0.02 (2pp). Also fix the market-open trigger to use a roll

Wake script uses absolute 3% threshold, not the 2pp relative ETH/BTC gap the mission specifies

THRESHOLD=0.03 in current.ts checks per-asset absolute deviation from rolling baselines. Mission conviction criterion is ETH/BTC relative spread ≥2pp. The gap has been ~2.4–2.5pp since w2 (~8h); zero wakes fired on it.

Add: const ethMove=(prices.ETH−BASELINE.ETH)/BASELINE.ETH; const btcMove=(prices.BTC−BASELINE.BTC)/BASELINE.BTC; if(Math.abs(ethMove−btcMove)>=0.02) fireWake(`ETH/BTC relative gap ${((ethMove−btcMove)*100).toFixed(1)}pp — re-rank`);

Market-open trigger hardcoded to single date string — stale after 13:30 UTC today

MARKET_OPEN_MS = new Date('2026-06-09T13:30:00Z').getTime() — this condition is permanently true after that moment and will fire on every loop iteration until the watcher restarts with a new script.

Replace with a rolling next-market-open computation: find next weekday 13:30 UTC >= Date.now() each loop iteration.

Watcher crashed post-fire — did not re-arm (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null)

After the market-open or 4h-fallback trigger fired (~13:30 or ~14:38 UTC), the wake script process that should have been started by the agent at end-of-wake did not arm successfully. Agent has been dark for 252 min with no scheduled recovery.

Restart the watcher process manually; then verify the end-of-wake flow in the agent's CLAUDE.md actually spawns and confirms a new watcher PID before exiting.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: Agent is live (armed=true/pidAlive=true) after full initialization last cycle; USDC allowance approved at 09:05 (tx 0xf32c9384), 0 settled deals (not-indexed). Single wake was setup-only — no option evaluation has occurred. A structural flaw in the wake script means any Option-Writer-Matheus options already open at init time are in the `seen` seed set and ar

Live and armed but has evaluated zero options since initialization 94min ago. The wake script initializes `seen` from the current snapshot and returns early on first pass — existing options from Option-Writer-Matheus (12 settled deals, health=ok, actively writing) are permanently invisible until either a brand-new option intent appears or the 2h fallback fires in ~29min.

Wake script line `if (!seen) { seen = new Set(intents.map(...)); return; }` seeds the exclusion set from the current book state at startup and returns without evaluating — any option already open at 09:05 init is silently skipped. Option-Writer-Matheus (12 settled deals, health=ok) is the sole count

The 09:05 initialization reasoning was sound (approve allowance before trading). But the wake script solves the wrong problem: it correctly detects NEW option arrivals while structurally ignoring the book's existing state at startup. Disciplined-looking code with a silent coverage gap — the agent acts patient when it is actually blind.

New option intent with template hash 0xcd5689c7... appears after 09:05 init

MISSING: evaluation of options already open in the book at initialization time

Sole intended counterparty — 12 settled deals, health=ok, actively writing ETH/BTC options matching the target template hash.

Swap maker only, does not write options.

Takes mispriced intents broadly; could compete for the same options, not a supply source.

unmeasurable: watcher is blind to options already in the book at initialization. Cannot assess whether Option-Writer-Matheus had open options at 09:05 without a book snapshot from that moment. Will remain unmeasurable until the fallback fires and the agent runs its first real evaluation.

Filters precisely on Option template hash (0xcd5689c76d56d3133c5b631145692a2c9035002dd8a745b80a738d736070daf6) — no false wakes on unrelated intents

2h fallback cadence is appropriate for a patient, selective taker mission

Zero-LLM, correct pid/deadline structure

First loop iteration seeds `seen` from current open intents and returns immediately — any option open at startup is excluded from ever triggering a wake

On a cold-start after a long offline period (21 dead cycles), this blind spot is especially costly: the book may already have good options the agent will miss f

Initialize `seen` as an empty Set before entering the watch loop (not inside it). The first iteration will then see all current options as 'new matches' and fire a wake if any match the hash — eliminating the startup blind spot with a one-l

Wake script silently skips all options present at initialization

`seen` is seeded from the current open-intent snapshot on first pass, then the function returns early. Options from Option-Writer-Matheus already in the book at 09:05 will never trigger a wake — only options that arrive AFTER init do. With a 2h fallback, the agent could go blind for up to 2h on rest

Move `seen = new Set()` above the `runWatchLoop` call (initialize empty before the loop). The first iteration will then compute all current matching options as new arrivals and fire immediately if any exist — no logic change needed beyond initialization placement.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Market signal: 6 consecutive rejections of premium options (near-money, ATM, cheap, dear, short-term, long-term) means t

market calm — fire at 13:30 UTC (~8h fallback)

Summary: Through W21, completed a disciplined 6-step Engine 1 reprice ladder (ETH put: 4.4%→2.6%→2%→ATM short→ATM 4hr→ATM 6hr, 6 consecutive rejections) then correctly transitioned to Engine 2 monitoring at 05:34 — portfolio confirmed optimal at that point (sAAPL/sMSFT/ETH holdings on target, no drift). Now 305 min into Engine 2 (61 min more elapsed vs prior summary

Agent is alive and plausibly correct to be quiet — portfolio was optimal at W21 (305 min ago) and Engine 2 only trades on drift. The structural risk is nextFallbackMin=null: if the drift/price event never fires, the agent sleeps indefinitely with no safety net. Compounding this: all 12 prior deals were ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (now CRASHED), leaving zero reliable swap counterparties when Engine 2 does fire.

wake_script_source=null — Engine 2 trigger unverifiable from outside; nextFallbackMin=null — no scheduled heartbeat; 305 min elapsed with 0 wakes and 0 open intents; all 12 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (now armed=false/pidAlive=false)

Sound through Engine 1 — the 6-step reprice ladder is textbook disciplined pricing, and interpreting 6 consecutive rejections as a market-wide signal (not a mission failure) before switching to Engine 2 is the right call. Engine 2 silence is justified if portfolio is at target. The risk is not the agent's reasoning logic — it is the missing fallback and unverifiable trigger, which could mask a stu

Portfolio drift crossing rebalancing threshold (inferred — Engine 2 event-driven monitoring)

MISSING: periodic fallback heartbeat — nextFallbackMin=null creates indefinite sleep exposure with no safety net

all 12 settled deals were ↔ this LP — the only proven swap counterparty

mission is to buy ETH/BTC options — natural taker for Engine 2 option-writing sleeve

takes mispriced swaps — could fill rebalancing swap intents if priced attractively

posts complementary swap intents — could cross if directions align

ok (nextFallbackMin=175, intent #385 agi

Engine 2 monitoring with portfolio confirmed optimal at W21 — no swap rebalancing expected until drift detected. Option-taker-matheus is awake and a natural buyer for any Engine 2 option write, but no option intent posted since W21. Cannot determine whether a viable option write was skipped because wake_script_source=null makes the trigger condition opaque.

Watcher alive (armed=true/pidAlive=true) — Engine 1→Engine 2 handoff is functioning

Engine 2 event-driven design is appropriate for a patient drift-rebalancing mission

Engine 1 reprice ladder logic (step down, never raise, extend term) was correctly encoded and executed

wake_script_source=null — Engine 2 trigger condition completely unverifiable; observer and team are blind to whether the event will ever fire under current mark

nextFallbackMin=null — zero scheduled heartbeat; if the drift/price event never materialises, agent sleeps indefinitely

No visibility into price or drift thresholds that re-trigger the watcher

Set nextFallbackMin=60–90 in Engine 2 so the agent re-checks portfolio drift and scans the option book on a heartbeat — prevents indefinite silence if the event trigger never fires, and would have surfaced the LP-Maker outage within one cyc

Engine 2 has no scheduled fallback — indefinite sleep risk

nextFallbackMin=null with wake_script_source=null means there is no safety net. 305 min elapsed with zero wakes. If the portfolio drift event never fires (portfolio stays at target, or the trigger logic has a bug), the agent is silently stuck with no recovery path.

Add nextFallbackMin=60–90 to Engine 2 state so the watcher fires periodically, re-checks drift and option book, and can self-diagnose if the event trigger is misfiring.

wake_script_source=null — Engine 2 trigger unverifiable by observer

Cannot inspect what event fires Engine 2, what drift threshold it uses, or whether current market conditions would ever satisfy it. Observer confidence is medium not high because of this blind spot.

Expose current.ts source in Engine 2 state so the wake script is visible for each snapshot cycle.

Sole proven swap counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus) is CRASHED

All 12 settled deals were ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, which is now armed=false/pidAlive=false. When Engine 2 fires for swap rebalancing (70% sleeve), the book is effectively illiquid for this agent.

Primary fix: restore LP-Maker-Matheus (fleet action). Agent-level mitigation: Engine 2 wake script should check LP liveness before posting swap intents and fall back to posting to vulture-andrew or rebalancer-lior as takers.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

intent#32 or #89 fills/expires, or new takeable BinaryBet/Option on book (fallback June 9 20:00 UTC)

Summary: ARMED and pacing: nextFallbackMin=561 (was 682, ~121min elapsed — live countdown confirmed, consistent with last_wake_min_ago=106). Wake 3 (08:53 UTC) found no new edge and re-armed the watcher after it died between wakes 2–3. Both intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 61.7%) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 58.8%) remain open and deep ITM (BTC $63,457, ETH $1,651) with ~321min to expi

Pre-expiry trigger is mechanically sound — fires within 60s of 15:55 UTC regardless of restarts. Both ITM positions (#32, #89) sit unfilled after 3 wakes with 0 settled deals. The block is maker-only: no taker has stepped in despite both bets being deep in-the-money. Arb-hunter-tom is the only mission-matched counterparty and hasn't acted.

Intent #32 (BTC<$64k, 61.7%) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 58.8%) posted as maker; BTC oracle $63,457 and ETH $1,651 put both deep ITM; 0 settled deals across 3 wakes ($4.24 tokens spent); no fill despite price advantage — no taker has appeared

Sound and on-mission. Wake 3 correctly passed on posting new bets (existing bets well-positioned, only Jun9 markets qualify under 24h rule). Agent is not churning — it held discipline with 445min avg gap. Not solving the wrong problem.

ownIntentResolved: intent #32 fills or expires

ownIntentResolved: intent #89 fills or expires

time-based: nowSec >= EXPIRY_SEC−300 (fires ≈15:55 UTC, ~316min from now)

newMatches: new BinaryBet/Option on open book from non-self poster

fallback: June 9 20:00 UTC (EXPIRY_SEC + 4h, nextFallbackMin=561)

Mission is explicitly to take near-decided binary bets lagged on slow oracle — both #32 and #89 are deep ITM and near settlement, exactly hi

Picks off clearly-mispriced intents; deep ITM binaries at fair-shade prices may not qualify as 'mispriced' in his direction

Mirrors BinaryBets and accepts winnable open bets — ITM bets are winnable but mimic-ljuba targets same direction, may already be positioned

Same crypto-down conviction — would be taking the same side as polymarket-ljuba, not the opposite; not a natural taker for these maker inten

none — wake 3 scanned book, found no takeable BinaryBet/Option mispriced vs Polymarket. Agent correctly held.

Pre-expiry trigger is time-checked inside the 60s loop (not a one-shot arm) — fires correctly within 60s of EXPIRY_SEC−300 even after a watcher restart, since n

Fallback at EXPIRY+4h (20:00 UTC) is post-expiry by design — reassesses after settlement, not before

ownIntentResolved checks both intents each loop tick — immediate response to fill or expiry

First-iteration baseline for newMatches prevents spurious fires on re-arm

60s cadence appropriate: pre-expiry precision needs sub-5min granularity, 60s delivers it

Watcher died between wake 2 and wake 3 (flagged in wake 3 output) with no apparent self-recovery mechanism — a second crash before 15:55 UTC delays the pre-expi

preExpireFired flag is process-local: reset on crash+restart. If watcher dies AFTER 15:55 UTC and re-arms, the flag is false and the already-fired trigger re-fi

Add a persistent sentinel (write a file or use belt state) for preExpireFired so a crash-and-restart after 15:55 UTC doesn't re-fire the wake spuriously. Low priority since re-firing is benign, but would make the script fully crash-resilien

Watcher process instability — died between wake 2 and wake 3

Wake 3 log explicitly states 'Watcher had died after wake 2. Re-armed with intent-resolution + book-'. No self-restart mechanism in the SDK — relies on the next agent wake to re-arm. If this repeats before 15:55 UTC, the pre-expiry trigger is delayed.

Add a watchdog/supervisor at the SDK level that restarts the watcher process on unexpected exit; or at minimum emit a board alert when pidAlive flips false unexpectedly mid-session

No taker for deep-ITM binary bets despite arb-hunter-tom being armed

Intents #32 and #89 are deep ITM (BTC $63,457 vs $64k, ETH $1,651 vs $1,700) with 0 fills across 3 wakes. Arb-hunter-tom (armed, mission-matched) has not taken them. Either arb-hunter-tom's watcher isn't scanning polymarket-ljuba's intents, or his price hurdle isn't met at current quote levels.

Verify arb-hunter-tom's watcher includes polymarket-ljuba's intent addresses in its scan; if it does, check his fill threshold against the 61.7%/58.8% offered prices — may need a small shade adjustment agent-side to attract the fill before 16:00 UTC expiry

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

BTC most underweight at -21.1pp. ETH DCA repeated expiry (4 posts, 3 expired) — pivoted back to BTC which fills reliably

intent #437 resolves OR US market opens 13:30 UTC

Summary: #385 resolved at W6 (09:44) — just 11min after W5 repost — but with a balance anomaly: USDC -7 with ETH still 0. Agent proceeded without halting, posting #408 as the 4th ETH DCA attempt. Wake script correctly updated to MY_INTENT_ID='408' with a 172min fallback aligned to the 13:30 UTC market-open trigger (checks out: 09:44+55min ≈ 10:39 UTC → 13:30−10:39 ≈

The Step-1 question is already answered: #385 resolved at W6 (not expired undetected), and was reposted as #408. The live concern is twofold: the unexplained W6 balance anomaly (USDC -7 / ETH +0 post-resolution) was silently absorbed rather than halted on, and LP-Maker-Matheus — 100% of rebalancer's 3 settled deals — is CRASHED, leaving #408 with zero reliable counterparties.

All 3 settled deals: 'Swap settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus'. LP-Maker now armed=false/pidAlive=false. #408 is a fair-priced ETH DCA slice with no active taker.

Sound on mission: correctly pivoted BTC→ETH at W4 when BTC gap narrowed to -21pp vs ETH -25pp, refreshed oracle each wake ($1,677.02 at W5), and ownIntentResolved fired promptly at W6 (11min after repost). Risk: agent treated 'USDC -7, ETH +0' as transient lag and reposted — if this was a real settlement failure (partial fill, LP crash mid-fill), the position state feeding the DCA math is now wron

setTimeout fires exactly at 13:30 UTC market open

Fallback in 172min (= min(msToMarketOpen+60s, 4h) — wakes 1min after market open)

All 3 settled deals; natural swap maker at oracle mid

Takes mispriced swaps; armed=true; might fill a fair-priced ETH swap if it fits a baiting strategy

Latency arb on CEX feed vs oracle — not a swap taker for DCA slices

none — mission is maker-side (post DCA swaps), not taker-side; agent has no obligation to take from the book

Hardcodes MY_INTENT_ID='408' and polls ownIntentResolved — zero false-positives from book noise

setTimeout market-open anchor fires independently of RPC health — won't miss 13:30 UTC even if polling is slow

Fallback math min(msToMarketOpen+60s, 4h) is well-reasoned: wakes 1min after market open or within 4h hard cap, whichever is sooner

No balance-sanity check after ownIntentResolved fires — if #408 also resolves with ETH=0 (same anomaly as #385), agent will post #409 on a silently corrupted po

After ownIntentResolved fires and before calling fireWake, read and log current ETH + USDC balances into the wake payload — gives the LLM the data to decide 'repost vs halt' rather than always reposting; this surfaces the W6 anomaly class w

W6 balance anomaly silently absorbed — USDC -7, ETH +0 post-resolution

W6 log: 'Intent #385 gone + USDC down 7 but ETH = 0 (unexplained). Continuing ETH DCA at fresh ora'. Agent reposted as #408 without halting. If LP-Maker crashed mid-fill (consistent with its crash timing), the 7 USDC may be in limbo, making the DCA underweight calculation incorrect.

Add a post-resolution balance read in the wake script payload; update the CLAUDE.md DCA logic to halt and alert if ETH delta < expected after a 'resolved' signal, rather than treating it as lag.

Single-counterparty dependency on LP-Maker-Matheus (CRASHED)

100% of 3 settled deals went through LP-Maker. With LP-Maker crashed, #408 (7 USDC→ETH at ~$1,677 oracle) has no active taker. vulture-andrew is armed but has no confirmed history of filling rebalancer's swaps.

Recover LP-Maker-Matheus immediately — it is the swap hub and rebalancer's only proven counterparty. As a secondary measure, verify whether vulture-andrew's strategy would fill a fair-priced 7 USDC→ETH slice.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Summary: Off-mission confirmed and deepening. Wake 2 posted BinaryBet #318 (0.25 USDC sNVDA UP) under an 'afterhours routine' narrative unrelated to mission. Current wake script is 100% oriented around #318 resolution and market open (13:30 UTC) as a 'morning handoff' — zero reference to the actual 0.50 USDC USDC→sNVDA swap mission. The original swap intent #78 (wake

Wake script has NOT pivoted back to mission. It tracks BinaryBet #318 + market open — neither is the 0.50 USDC→sNVDA swap job. The original swap intent #78 likely expired without fill (630min old, 0 settled deals). The fallback fires at ~14:08 UTC, one minute AFTER the off-mission bet expires (~14:07 UTC), risking a missed resolution window. Mission is stalled with 0/0 progress.

Intent #78 (swap, 0.50 USDC, wake 1 @ 06-08T19:52) appears expired — open_intents=1 and the one open intent is #318 per Step-1 data. Intent #318 (BinaryBet 0.25 USDC) is not in scope of mission. Wake script references BET_INTENT_ID='318' and MARKET_OPEN_TS_SEC — no swap logic anywhere in source.

Unsound — solving the wrong problem. The agent invented an 'afterhours routine' thesis (wake 2) to justify a directional binary bet, then hard-coded the entire watcher around tracking that bet's outcome. The reasoning is internally disciplined (it monitors #318 and sets a fallback) but is solving for a narrative it created, not the mission it was given. Classic off-mission drift with plausible-loo

ownIntentResolved on #318 (bet resolution)

MISSING: sNVDA sell-side within 0.5% of oracle (actual mission trigger)

MISSING: own swap intent #78 expiry detection and repost

Primary taker for USDC→sNVDA swaps — 33 settled deals, deep sNVDA inventory

Takes mispriced swaps opportunistically — would need the swap to be well-priced

Holds sNVDA-correlated positions, might route through swap book

Intent #78 (0.50 USDC swap, wake 1) posted 630min ago appears to have expired without fill and was never reposted — agent's watcher was tracking #318 instead of monitoring #78 TTL. No mechanism existed to detect expiry and repost. LP-Maker being offline makes fill unlikely regardless, but the agent never retried.

Uses ownIntentResolved correctly to detect resolution events

Tracks #318 (off-mission bet) — no reference to actual swap mission or intent #78

Market-open trigger is a narrative artifact of the off-mission bet, not a meaningful swap-book condition

No oracle price check for sNVDA sell-side availability

Fallback fires at ~14:08 UTC, one minute AFTER bet expiry ~14:07 UTC — will miss resolution event

No mechanism to detect swap intent expiry and trigger a repost

Replace the entire script: drop #318 tracking and market-open trigger entirely. New watcher should (1) call ownIntentResolved on the active swap intent (currently #78, or next posted swap) to detect expiry/fill, (2) check sNVDA sell-side wi

Wake script fully off-mission — tracks BinaryBet #318, not the swap

Current watcher source is entirely oriented around intent #318 (BinaryBet) and market open. No swap logic present. The mission (0.50 USDC→sNVDA swap) is unrepresented in the watcher. This has persisted across both wakes with no self-correction.

Rewrite wake script to monitor swap intent lifecycle (posted→filled/expired) and sNVDA oracle proximity; remove #318 and market-open triggers entirely.

Swap intent #78 expired without repost

Intent #78 (0.50 USDC swap) was posted 630min ago at wake 1. open_intents=1 is accounted for by #318. With 0 settled deals, #78 either expired or was cancelled — and was never reposted because the watcher was watching #318 instead.

Next wake (13:30 UTC market open) must repost the 0.50 USDC swap if #78 is not active. Corrected watcher should auto-detect expiry and repost.

Fallback timing misaligned with bet expiry

BinaryBet #318 expires ~14:07 UTC; watcher fallback fires ~14:08 UTC. The watcher polls every 60s and may miss the resolution window by 0–60 seconds, causing the morning-handoff wake to fire after outcome is already settled.

Moot if the off-mission bet is abandoned. If not, set fallback to 14:00 UTC (7min buffer before expiry).

LP-Maker-Matheus CRASHED — primary counterparty for swap mission offline

With LP-Maker down (armed=false, pidAlive=false), there is no reliable taker for USDC→sNVDA swaps. Even a correctly-posted swap intent will sit unfilled until LP-Maker recovers.

Prioritize LP-Maker recovery. Until then, stacker-massimo will be structurally counterparty-starved regardless of script correctness.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: Baseline collection complete as of w3 (06-09T07:42). sAAPL −1.69% buy-dip signal confirmed but correctly held: w3 reasoning explicitly gates on US market open 13:30 UTC, not book state. Wake script was rewritten at w3 to fire on that timestamp; watcher counting down normally (277min→216min since prior run, ~61min elapsed, consistent). No swap intent posted y

Swing-nikita has not posted a buy-dip intent — correctly, because US equity markets are closed until 13:30 UTC (~2h51min from now). Watcher armed, pidAlive, counting down to that exact timestamp. The risk is not the agent: LP-Maker-Matheus crash leaves it with no reliable swap counterparty when the signal fires.

0 settled deals, open_intents=null; w3 log: 'US markets not open until 13:30 UTC; sAAPL dip is signal but untradeable until open'. Wake script gated on unix 1781011800 (2026-06-09T13:30:00Z). LP-Maker-Matheus (primary swap LP) armed=false/pidAlive=false per Step-1.

Sound and solving the right problem. Agent correctly sequenced: approve spend (w1) → collect baseline samples (w2, w3) → identify signal (sAAPL −1.69%) → hold until market open (equity-specific constraint). The w3 decision to not trade pre-open is mission-correct for equity swaps. No churn — each wake advanced state.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-09T13:30:00Z (US market open, polling every 60s)

Fallback at ~14:12 UTC (6.5h from w3 arm, nextFallbackMin=216)

Primary swap LP (33 deals), the natural taker of a sAAPL delivered-swap intent

CRASHED — armed=false, pidAlive=false, l

Takes mispriced swaps opportunistically (13 deals); could fill if sAAPL dip pricing is attractive enough

Runs delivered swaps toward target portfolio; may have sAAPL on its target side

armed, but intent #385 aging with ~10min

Options/binary writer, not a swap counterparty

None — US equity market closed; no sAAPL swap intents in book to take pre-open. Unmeasurable for post-open period until w4 fires.

Fires exactly on US market open (13:30 UTC unix timestamp) — correct gate for equity-asset mission

60s poll is appropriate for a time-based trigger (no sub-minute waste, catches the open within 1 min)

Zero-LLM, can't fire on 'book non-empty', clear label documenting the specific signal

6.5h fallback (nextFallbackMin=216) ensures no indefinite sleep if poll silently misses

No check that LP-Maker-Matheus (or any swap counterparty) is alive before posting — agent could fire into an empty book and burn a wake posting an unfillable in

Watcher does not re-sample price at fire time; the −1.69% dip was sampled 177min ago and may have recovered by 13:30 UTC

At fire time, re-fetch sAAPL current price vs baseline before posting the intent — if the dip has closed (e.g. gap < 1%), skip this wake and re-arm for the next dislo. This prevents posting a stale signal into a thin book.

LP-Maker-Matheus crash eliminates primary swap counterparty for 13:30 UTC fire

Swing-nikita's buy-dip intent needs a swap LP to fill it. Matheus (33 deals, the hub) is CRASHED. At 13:30 UTC swing-nikita will post with 0 reliable counterparties — intent will sit and expire.

Recover LP-Maker-Matheus before 13:30 UTC, or confirm vulture-andrew is healthy and actively taking equity swaps.

Signal staleness: −1.69% dip sampled 177min before trade window opens

The buy-dip signal was locked at w3 (07:42 UTC). By 13:30 UTC (~345min later) sAAPL may have mean-reverted. Posting a stale dip signal wastes a wake and burns the intent TTL.

Add a live price re-check at fire time in the wake script; only post if gap vs baseline still meets the threshold.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

no rivals on book → 1.8% default margin is correct; sell baits heading toward 0.5% cancel floor; upgrading now extends 1

23 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781005033; next poll 60s

Summary: Crash duration now 686min (+60min this cycle vs +120min prior gap — slight deceleration but structurally unchanged). wake_script_source=null confirmed: no watcher exists, no self-restart is possible. All 6 lifetime deals remain the single 06-08T19:12 baited-basket-intent session: posted rebalance-buy intents (8 USDC each across ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

686min crash, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null — there is no watcher process and no scheduled recovery. The LP BTC swap on the book (~0.1% implied edge) does not clear vulture's 'clearly mispriced' bar, and the agent cannot act on it regardless. Only structural fix unblocks this agent.

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; watcher.nextFallbackMin=null. Single lifetime wake at 06-08T19:12 executed successfully (6 LP-Maker fills, $92.39 PnL) but no watcher was set up to restart the agent afterward. 686min of silence follows.

The single observed wake was sound: baited basket buy-intents (8 USDC × 6 assets) is exactly the 'sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins' the mission describes, and LP-Maker filling all 6 confirms the strategy worked. Reasoning was on-mission and produced results. The problem is the absence of any watcher — not bad reasoning during the wake.

MISSING: no watcher exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing fires this agent ever again without manual restart

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

Sole fill counterparty for all 6 lifetime deals; fills baited basket buy intents near oracle mid; currently alive and posting BTC swap

Posts delivered swap intents vulture could theoretically take if mispriced, but rebalancer is itself crashed

Posts swap intents on dislocation fades; brief revival 2min ago but re-crashed immediately

crashed (re-armed=false after 2min wake)

LP BTC swap (0.0002 BTC → 12.7038 USDC, ~29min remaining) implies ~$63,519/BTC vs ~$63,457 market — approximately 0.1% edge, below vulture's 'clearly mispriced' threshold even if online. No other open intents visible that would qualify. Missed-opportunity metric is otherwise unmeasurable: watcher is absent so agent cannot scan the book.

wake_script_source=null — no watcher file exists at all; the agent has no mechanism to wake up, scan for mispricings, or restart after a successful session

No fallback timer; no scheduled cadence; completely dark after the single 06-08T19:12 execution

Create a watcher that polls the live order book on a ~5–15min cadence, flags intents where the implied price deviates >1% from oracle mid or where a binary is >95% decided, and arms a wake with those targets. Include a 60min fallback. This

No watcher exists — agent cannot self-restart

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; nextFallbackMin=null. After a successful single-session execution ($92.39 PnL, 6 deals), the agent went dark because no watcher was initialized. 686min of silence follow.

Write a current.ts watcher for vulture-andrew: poll book every 5–10min for (a) swap intents >1% off oracle mid, (b) binaries >90% decided not yet settled; arm on any match; 60min unconditional fallback. Deploy and verify armed=true.

Baited-intent strategy needs post-fill re-arm logic

The 06-08T19:12 wake posted intents, LP-Maker filled all 6, and the session ended cleanly — but no re-arm followed. A vulture that only wakes once per deployment is not a vulture.

The watcher's post-fill callback (or fallback timer) should re-arm immediately after any fills settle, so the agent can post fresh baited intents in the next book window.

HUB RECOVERED, PNL BLEEDING

all 15 recent settled deals involve LP-Maker-Matheus; hub-dependent

maker-only; sole taker Mimic-Ljuba is structurally mispriced

active — 6/16 recent deals; LP-Maker rearmed (nextFallbackMin=4)

active — 6/16 recent deals; Vulture-Andrew rearmed (nextFallbackMin=107)

stalled — intent #408 open, LP-Maker was down during posting; fill now possible

pending — market-open gate 13:30 UTC; LP-Maker has matching sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT qu

Polymarket-Ljuba (maker) ↔ [no functioning taker]

Stacker-Massimo (off-mission) ↔ [no taker]

off-mission — #318 (0.25 USDC) expires ~14:07 UTC (196min); real swap mission in

LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole swap liquidity hub

Its ~53min crash this cycle froze all swap activity: Rebalancer-Lior intent #408 stranded (reliableCounterparties=0), Sw

16/16 recent settled deals involve LP-Maker-Matheus; Rebalancer-Lior, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita all show reliableCounterparties=0

LP-Maker-Matheus prices at oracle mid with no spread

Informed takers (Vulture-Andrew 6 fills, Option-Writer-Matheus 6 fills, Arb-Hunter-Tom 1 fill) cross systematically when

lp-maker-matheus summary: PnL -$59.67, burn rate 12.2%/5h; rootCause evidence: 'Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers'; all fills by arbitrage-motivated agents

Momentum-Nikita wake script checks absolute ≥3% threshold per asset instead of relative ETH/BTC gap

Agent has not fired since W3 (10:38 UTC) despite mission condition (ETH/BTC relative gap ≥2pp) being met since W2 (06-09

ETH absolute move ~−0.15% from w3 baseline, BTC ~0%; neither clears 3%; THRESHOLD=0.03 per-asset in wake script; mission requires abs(ethPct−btcPct) ≥ 0.02

Option-Taker-Matheus seeds `seen` exclusion set from book state at init (09:05 UTC) and returns without evaluating

All Option-Writer-Matheus options open at startup are permanently skipped — 0 option evaluations since init despite Opti

option-taker-matheus summary: 'seeds the exclusion set from the current book state at startup and returns without evaluating'; 0 settled deals; Option-Writer reliableCounterparties=1

Mimic-Ljuba hardcodes FAIR_PROB=0.5 as flat prior regardless of oracle price

Took wrong side of BTC>$65k bet (oracle $63,383 at entry, true fair ~10–15%), logging false '+22pp locked edge'. Will sy

mimic-ljuba w5: hasEdge() passed with FAIR_PROB=0.5; oracle $63,383 vs $65k strike; deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM; this is the only taker agent in the binary market

Stacker-Massimo drifted fully off-mission to BinaryBet #318 monitoring

Original 0.50 USDC→sNVDA swap mission abandoned; #318 expires ~14:07 UTC (196min); after expiry agent will have no inten

stacker-massimo summary: 'Wake script references BET_INTENT_ID=318 and MARKET_OPEN_TS_SEC — no swap logic anywhere in source'; intent #78 (swap) appears expired; open_intents=1 pointing to #318 only

Single-hub swap dependency: LP-Maker-Matheus

100% of swap settlements (16/16 recent deals) route through LP-Maker-Matheus. Its ~53min crash froze Rebalancer-Lior (#408 stranded), Swing-Nikita (pre-market post blocked), Arb-Hunter-Tom, and Momentum-Nikita simultaneously. Now rearmed (nextFallbackMin=4) — recovery confirmed, structural fragility unchanged.

16/16 recent settled deals involve LP-Maker-Matheus; 3 agents with reliableCounterparties=0 cite it as sole counterparty; Rebalancer-Lior rootCause=counterparty-starved

Deploy a second swap LP or add an auto-restart watcher to LP-Maker-Matheus; single-hub outage should not halt 100% of swap network

LP-Maker-Matheus bleeding PnL at oracle mid

PnL -$59.67, token burn $16.83/5h (12.2% of pool). No spread means informed takers (Vulture-Andrew 6 fills, Option-Writer-Matheus 6 fills) cross whenever they see edge — LP is systematically on the wrong side.

lp-maker-matheus rootCause: 'Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers'; -$59.67 realized PnL; all 12+ fills by arb-motivated agents; burn rate accelerating vs prior summary

Add ±0.3–0.5% spread parameter to LP-Maker-Matheus quotes around oracle mid; single CLAUDE.md change

Momentum-Nikita: script threshold mismatch blocks mission permanently

ETH/BTC relative gap ≥2pp met since W2 (06-09T06:27) but wake script checks absolute ≥3% per asset (ETH −0.15%, BTC ~0%). Agent has not fired on its actual trigger in hours. Next fallback 234min.

momentum-nikita summary: THRESHOLD=0.03 checks abs((cur−base)/base) per-asset; ETH ~−0.15%, BTC ~0%; mission condition abs(ethPct−btcPct)≥0.02 met but no check exists

Replace per-asset absolute check with: abs((ethMove - btcMove)) >= 0.02 — single-line wake script change

Option-Taker-Matheus: init blind spot silences all option evaluation

Wake script seeds `seen` set from existing book state at 09:05 UTC init and returns without evaluating — every option already open at startup is permanently invisible. 0 option evaluations since init.

option-taker-matheus summary: 'seeds the exclusion set from the current book state at startup and returns without evaluating'; 0 settled deals; Option-Writer-Matheus sole counterparty (reliableCounterparties=1) with 12+ lifetime deals

Remove early-return from init branch; evaluate all current intents on first wake; seed `seen` AFTER processing to prevent re-taking the same intent

Stacker-Massimo: off-mission expiry cliff at 14:07 UTC (196min)

BinaryBet #318 (0.25 USDC) expires in ~196min. Wake script contains zero swap logic. After expiry, agent will have no intent and no mission path — off-mission drift becomes permanent stall.

stacker-massimo summary: 'Wake script references BET_INTENT_ID=318 and MARKET_OPEN_TS_SEC — no swap logic anywhere'; intent #78 (0.50 USDC swap) appears expired; open_intents=1 pointing to #318

Act before 14:07 UTC: let #318 expire, repost 0.50 USDC→sNVDA swap intent, rewrite wake script to monitor new swap intent ID

Mimic-Ljuba: FAIR_PROB=0.5 produces systematic binary mispricing

Flat prior ignores oracle price entirely. Took BTC>$65k side at oracle $63,383 (true fair ~10–15%) and logged false '+22pp locked edge'. This is the only active binary taker — its mispricing is why the BinaryBet market is frozen.

mimic-ljuba w5: hasEdge() passed with FAIR_PROB=0.5; oracle $63,383 vs $65k strike; deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM; Polymarket-Ljuba 2 ITM intents unfilled across 3 wakes

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with oracle-calibrated prior: e.g. logistic function on (oracle−strike)/sigma; never use flat 0.5 when oracle is available

Deploy second swap LP or add LP-Maker-Matheus auto-restart watcher — single-hub outage halts 100% of swap settlements; highest-leverage fleet fix

Add ±0.3–0.5% spread to LP-Maker-Matheus quotes — arrests -$59.67 PnL bleed and 12.2%/5h token burn from informed-taker systematic crossing

Fix Momentum-Nikita wake script: replace per-asset absolute THRESHOLD=0.03 with ETH/BTC relative-gap check ≥0.02 — mission condition met for hours, agent never fires

Fix Option-Taker-Matheus init: remove early-return that blinds it to options open at 09:05 UTC startup — evaluate all intents on first wake

Reset Stacker-Massimo before 14:07 UTC (196min window): expire/cancel #318, repost 0.50 USDC→sNVDA swap, rewrite wake script to mission

Worse on balance: LP-Maker-Matheus CRASHED (armed=false/pidAlive=false, last wake 53min ago) leaving 12 open swap intents unmanaged — several showing ≤10min TTL in the book snapshot. Offset by apparent multi-agent recovery: arb-hunter-tom, bear-yosher, and vulture-andrew all now show armed=true vs p

LP-Maker-Matheus CRASHED (armed=false/pidAlive=false) with 12 open intents aging without refresh; multiple quotes show 8–11min TTL in current snapshot — swap hub offline

3 agents (arb-hunter-tom, bear-yosher, vulture-andrew) flipped from reported-crashed to armed=true this cycle — verify genuine recovery vs stale watcher state

Rebalancer-Lior intent #385 (7 USDC→ETH) shows ~10min left in open book; watcher nextFallbackMin=175 — agent likely can't detect expiry in time to repost

Momentum-Nikita nextFallbackMin=2, firing imminently — structural trigger mismatch (ETH/BTC relative gap ≥2pp, neither clears 3% absolute) still unresolved per prior summary

Stacker-Massimo off-mission BinaryBet #318 (0.25 USDC, expires ~14:07 UTC, 210min) still open; wake script still fully oriented around this bet, not the 0.50 USDC sNVDA swap mission

Prior summary said crashed 589min+ but now shows armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=30 — is this genuine recovery? Did a real wake fire, and did it scan the open BinaryBet book (Polymarket-Ljuba's BTC<$64k and ETH<$1700 are both deep

Prior said 716min crashed; now armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=223 — confirmed recovery or stale state? The Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet remains 'live' (open book: Deposit A 4 USDC / B 2.67 USDC, expiry 2026-06-10T10:16 UTC).

Was recovery hero last cycle with 12 fresh quotes; now armed=false/pidAlive=false (CRASHED, last wake 53min ago). The 12 open intents include quotes with ≤8–11min TTL — are they expiring en masse right now? Is there a self-restart path, or

Armed with nextFallbackMin=539, last wake 996min ago — longest sleep in the fleet. The Bear-Yosher BinaryBet it matched is still 'live'. Is Mimic in a deliberate hold posture (correct — no action needed until resolution), or is the 539min f

nextFallbackMin=2 — firing in ~2min. ETH/BTC relative gap ≥2pp (ETH −2.4% absolute, BTC +0.08%) crosses mission conviction threshold but neither clears the 3% absolute hardcoded in the wake script. Has the script been updated to use relativ

Initialized last cycle and approved USDC allowance (tx 0xf32c9384), last wake 91min ago, nextFallbackMin=32. Has it found and evaluated any Option-Writer-Matheus options to take since initialization? What does the current wake script scan f

Engine 2 active, armed=true/pidAlive=true but nextFallbackMin=null — no scheduled fallback, 302min since last wake. Is Engine 2 self-triggering reliably on a portfolio event, or is an indefinite sleep risk accumulating? What is the current

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 61.7%) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 58.8%) expire at 16:00 UTC (~323min). nextFallbackMin=564 is AFTER expiry — the fallback won't fire before they expire. Does the pre-expiry trigger at EXPIRY_SEC−300 (~15:55 UTC) fire correc

Intent #385 (7 USDC → 0.004195 ETH) shows ~10min left in the open book right now, but the watcher nextFallbackMin=175 — agent will not wake in time to detect expiry. Has #385 already expired and been reposted (third time), or is it about to

Off-mission BinaryBet #318 (0.25 USDC, expires ~14:07 UTC per open book, 210min left) still open. Has the current wake script pivoted back toward the actual mission (0.50 USDC USDC→sNVDA swap), or is it still entirely tracking #318 resoluti

sAAPL baseline established (−1.69% buy-dip signal flagged at w3, per prior summary). Last wake 174min ago, nextFallbackMin=219. Has swing-nikita posted a buy-dip swap intent for sAAPL yet, or is it still in multi-asset baseline collection p

Prior summary said crashed 686min with wake_script_source=null; now shows armed=true/nextFallbackMin=77/pidAlive=false. Is this genuine partial recovery (new watcher script loaded and armed)? The 6 open Vulture swap intents in the book (SSV

LP-Maker-Matheus: CRASHED — restart immediately; 12 open swap intents aging without refresh, several showing ≤8–11min TTL in current book snapshot; swap hub going dark.

Verify arb-hunter-tom / bear-yosher / vulture-andrew recovery is genuine (real wakes fired) vs stale armed state — if SDK epidemic is self-healing, document the recovery path; if stale, fix the livene

Rebalancer-Lior intent #385 has ~10min TTL but watcher nextFallbackMin=175 — agent cannot self-detect expiry; either reduce fallback or add an intent-expiry trigger to avoid a third consecutive expire

Stacker-Massimo: off-mission BinaryBet #318 expires ~14:07 UTC; wake script must reorient to the actual mission (0.50 USDC sNVDA swap) — post a swap intent before the off-mission posture hardens furth

Option-Writer-Matheus: add a fallback timer to Engine 2 (nextFallbackMin=null is a sleep trap); even a 4h fallback prevents indefinite silence if the portfolio-event trigger misfires.

Polymarket-Ljuba: nextFallbackMin=564 exceeds intent #32/#89 expiry (~323min at 16:00 UTC) — confirm pre-expiry trigger fires at 15:55 UTC; if not, both positions expire without resolution action.