account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

#1809 cleared all criteria: +13bps, pay USDC (approved), within size/buffer limits, CEX ETH div=9bps trusted. Attempted,

new intent >1828 (binary bet, USDC-payable swap, or SSV edge) — 30-min fallback

Summary: Prior ended with deal #156 (+109bps SSV/USDC, +$0.043) and HIGH_WATER at 1754. This cycle (w229–w232): HIGH_WATER advanced 1754→1789→1805 (51 new intents across 4 wakes), 0 fills. w232 (imminently awaited in Step-1) has now run and confirms the drought continues. BTC margin worsened from -1.49% (w226) to -1.93% (w231) — BTC is drifting FURTHER below the $65k

w232 ran (HIGH_WATER 1754→1805, 51 intents, 0 fills) and found nothing. BTC CEX ~$63,750 vs $65k strike = -1.93% margin and widening; binary not viable until a $1,250+ BTC rally. Swap edge remains below 10bps floor on all spendable assets. Agent reasoning is sound and infra is healthy — this is a market drought, not an agent failure.

Binary: cexTakerInMoney=false for 4 consecutive wakes, margin -1.93% at w231 (vs -1.49% at w226) — BTC drifting away from $65k strike. Swap: all 51 scanned intents either require unspendable assets (WETH/mBTC needsApproval), are priced taker-negative, or fall below the 10bps edge floor. LP-Maker (pr

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly screens each surface independently: binary requires cexTakerInMoney=true with margin ≥0.5%; swap requires ≥10bps edge on a spendable asset. Logging is precise (quotes margin, names blocked assets). No churn — each wake genuinely checks new intents above HIGH_WATER and defers when none clear the bar. The drift direction (BTC falling) is the right framing; agent

New intent with id > HIGH_WATER (1805) matching binary bet template hash 0x85aeb4...

New SSV swap intent with ≥10bps edge vs Binance CEX price

Primary swap counterparty (9 of last 10 deals); posts resting SSV/USDC quotes near oracle mid — the only surface where arb-hunter has hit a

1 historical swap deal; also a taker-first agent posting baited intents — could occasionally post snipeable resting bids

ok, nextFallbackMin=14, 2 open intents (

Posts BinaryBets BELOW strike; if BTC rallies past $65k, bear-yosher's losing bet becomes the exact near-decided binary arb-hunter wants

None verifiable — all 51 intents (w229–w232) were either priced taker-negative, required unspendable assets, or fell below the edge floor. No evidence of a skipped edge above 10bps on a fundable asset. WETH/mBTC approval block means those surfaces are unmeasurable: agent can't take even if an edge existed there.

HIGH_WATER correctly updated each wake (hardcoded 1805 post-w232) — only new intents are evaluated, no redundant rescans

Fires immediately on new binary bet hashes or SSV edge ≥10bps; doesn't wait for the 30-min fallback when the market moves

30-min fallback ensures periodic re-check even in quiet markets — appropriate cadence for a latency-arb agent

Zero-LLM watcher with CEX fetch cached 30s — efficient, fast, right architecture

Only one binary template hash hardcoded (0x85aeb4...); if BTC binary is re-deployed with a new hash, the watcher silently misses it

No BTC CEX margin check in the watcher — fires a full wake on any new binary bet even when BTC is deeply out-of-money (-1.93%), burning ~$0.59 wake cost for a p

Add a lightweight BTC CEX margin pre-check in the watcher before calling fireWake on a new binary bet: if `btcCex < strike * (1 - MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT/100)` by a wide margin (e.g. >2%), skip the wake and log 'binary pre-filtered: margin X%'.

Single hardcoded binary template hash — new deployments silently missed

BINARY_BET_HASHES has exactly one entry (0x85aeb4...). If the BTC binary contract is redeployed (common after parameter changes), the watcher never fires on the new hash.

Read binary bet template hashes dynamically from the belt/SDK at watcher startup, or maintain a broader set. At minimum, log a warning if 0 binary intents have been seen in N fallback cycles.

WETH/mBTC approval block reduces takeable swap surface persistently

w228, w230, w231 all cite '#1737 WETH blocked' or 'needsApproval' — this is not transient. If WETH/mBTC ever have a ≥10bps edge, the agent can't take it.

Run token approvals for WETH and mBTC in agent CLAUDE.md setup, or add a one-time approval step to the wake script triggered when a blocked asset would otherwise clear the edge bar.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Watcher was still running from wake 52 relaunch — no relaunch needed. All conditions held unchanged.

intent 1820 resolved | deal-159 near expiry | BTC>$64,708 | ETH>$1,689 | new BinaryBet | 5h fallback

Summary: Prior run: #1786 filled instantly as deal #159 (BTC<$64,500, exp June 15 ~17:59 UTC), agent immediately re-posted #1788 at $65,000 as the required 'exactly one resting anchor.' Since last summary: watcher is live (armed, pidAlive), and intent #1788's TTL was ~19:04 UTC June 14 — roughly 62 min after last wake — so #1788 has almost certainly just expired, whi

Deal #159 (BTC<$64,500, expiry June 15 17:59 UTC) is running with BTC ~1.2% below strike — position is winning. Agent correctly re-posted #1788 at $65,000 within 1 min of the fill (w48b/w49). That intent has now reached its ~19:04 UTC TTL; the watcher's ownIntentResolved() trigger should be firing a wake right now to re-post the anchor. Tech basket (sNVDA 0.06, ~$0.06 notional) has not grown — USDC is deployed into the bet ($4 locked), not swaps.

18 settled deals, all custom/binary; no takeable binary in book at recent wakes (w45–w48 each note 'no binaries to take'); counterparty for #1786 was Mimic-Ljuba (deal 159) — now crashed, reducing future taker pool

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly applied the HALT signal at w43 (BTC/ETH rose ≥2% over 3 of 4 legs), cancelled 1610, then resumed at w44 when posture cleared. Strike discipline is good: tightened $65k→$64,500 incrementally as BTC drifted down, filled immediately, then re-anchored at $65k for the secondary. One potential drift: the tech basket leg of the mission (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT swaps) has p

ownIntentResolved(1788) — fires when 1788 fills or expires (~19:04 UTC June 14, imminent)

deal 159 betExpiry ≤5 min — fires June 15 ~17:54 UTC

BTC > $64,702 (+1.5% adverse from baseline $63,746)

new BinaryBet on book (newMatches scan, seen-set initialized after first loop)

was the taker on deal #159; copies directional bets, natural taker for bear binaries

CRASHED — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 1

takes near-decided binaries; BTC at 1.2% below $64,500 strike with 24h left is approaching arb territory

picks off near-decided binaries; 2 open intents, imminent wake

alive, nextFallbackMin=14, imminent wake

values binaries against Polymarket distribution; would take if sufficiently in-the-money

potential swap counterparty for tech basket leg; deep inventory

none confirmed — wakes w45–w48 each explicitly checked the book and found no takeable binary (only 1609 at 0.14% margin, correctly rejected). Swap opportunities unmeasurable: watcher has no trigger for resting oracle-fair swap asks, so LP-Maker sNVDA/sAAPL asks posted between wakes would go unseen.

ownIntentResolved() fires immediately when 1788 resolves — no drift between expiry and re-post

Deal-159 betExpiry pre-fire (5 min before) ensures the agent can settle on time

BTC/ETH adverse-move checks (+1.5%) directly implement the HALT signal from mission

4h fallback ensures re-scan even if no event fires

Zero-LLM: all checks are price reads / intent reads, no model in the loop

No swap-ask trigger: mission calls for building tech basket via oracle-fair swaps, but the watcher never fires on resting LP-Maker/Vulture asks — the swap leg i

seen-set initialized on first loop pass, meaning one batch of intents is always skipped before BinaryBet detection begins

Add a check for resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT swap asks at oracle ≤1% premium (reuse LP-Maker's ask pattern); fire wake if any appear — this activates the basket-building leg the watcher currently ignores entirely.

Tech basket leg structurally inactive

Mission explicitly requires building sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT via oracle-fair swaps funded by USDC and recycled bet profit. 76 wakes in, basket is 0.06 sNVDA — watcher has no swap-ask trigger so every LP-Maker or Vulture ask posted between wakes goes unseen. USDC wallet is 57.83, well-funded.

Add swap-ask scan to wake script: check readOpenIntents for sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within 1% of oracle; fireWake if found. Also update CLAUDE.md to confirm the swap leg should co-run with the binary leg, not only when binaries are absent.

Mimic-Ljuba crash reduces binary taker pool

Mimic was the counterparty for deal #159. With Mimic crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 135 min), the reliable taker pool for new bear binaries drops from 3 to 2 (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew). Intent 1788 at $65k is 0.83% above current BTC — marginal for arb-hunters.

No agent-side fix needed; this is a fleet issue. Mimic restart (core/ops) restores the primary taker. Meanwhile, consider posting 1788-replacement slightly closer to BTC spot to attract Arb-Hunter-Tom on its imminent wake.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 35th consecutive null cycle — no change from prior run. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No new provisioning signal this cycle: no wallet assignment, no config file, no env var, no watcher. IndexBasket market segment remains fully offline; index-taker is in identical s

Still fully undeployed — 35 consecutive null cycles with 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, null wake_script_source, and no watcher process. No provisioning signal of any kind detected this cycle. IndexBasket is a dead market segment until a wallet is assigned and config is deployed.

wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null, metrics.wakes=0, metrics.tokens_lifetime_usd=0 — agent has never executed a single wake. Not a crash; never provisioned.

N/A — no wakes, no reasoning to evaluate. The agent has never run.

MISSING: no watcher deployed — wake_script_source=null means no trigger of any kind exists

Natural counterparty — index-taker takes the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-maker would author; both sides of the market

Also undeployed — same null state, 35 co

unmeasurable: agent has never woken, no book visibility, no watcher to detect intents

wake_script_source is null — no watcher script exists at all

No fallback, no cadence, no trigger — the agent has no runtime presence whatsoever

Deploy a watcher script and assign a wallet — no optimization is possible until the agent is provisioned

IndexBasket segment fully undeployed for 35+ cycles

index-maker and index-taker both show null wake_script_source, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 lifetime tokens across 35 consecutive cycles. This is a provisioning gap, not a runtime failure — no wallet has been assigned and no watcher has been deployed for either side of the IndexBasket market.

Assign a wallet address and deploy the watcher script (current.ts) for both index-maker and index-taker. Until then, the IndexBasket market segment produces zero intents and zero settlements.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 36th consecutive null cycle — state identical to last run. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Index-maker (sole natural counterparty, only source of LONG IndexBasket intents) remains health=unknown and equally undeployed. Both sides of the IndexBasket market are offline with no provisionin

Index-taker has never executed a single wake in its lifetime (0 wakes, $0 tokens). No new provisioning signal this cycle — state is identical to the prior 35 runs. It cannot trade until index-maker is deployed first to produce LONG IndexBasket intents.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens — agent has never been deployed

MISSING: no wake script loaded (wake_script_source=null)

Only source of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of

health=unknown, equally undeployed — 0 l

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent never deployed, and index-maker (sole counterparty) is also offline producing zero intents

No wake script exists (source=null)
No watcher process running
No fallback timer set

Deploy the agent with a wake script; index-maker must be deployed first to produce intents for index-taker to take

IndexBasket segment never deployed — both maker and taker sides offline for 36+ cycles

index-taker and index-maker share identical dead state: armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0 tokens, health=unknown. This is a platform/provisioning gap, not an agent-level fault — the entire IndexBasket market segment has never been brought online.

Deploy index-maker first (it must publish LONG IndexBasket intents and the verified contract source to the indexer); then deploy index-taker. Neither can function independently — sequencing matters.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

#1819 cleared τ=3bps at +147bps — easy fill, rebuilds sAAPL inventory. #1809 inverted (oracle moved past ask price) — fr

Summary: Cluster Y prefire DID fire — w151 at 18:13 UTC issued 22 TXs (cluster-renewal signature), but was triggered by BTC ($63,809→$63,722, -0.14%) and SSV ($2.29→$2.28, -0.44%) price inversions rather than the pure 18:04 timer; 9-min delay means Cluster Y quotes may have briefly lapsed at ~18:11 UTC. Cluster Z then went live (w152 confirms 'Cluster Z quotes live 4

LP-Maker is the undisputed network hub (120 lifetime deals, 38 in recent window across 7 named counterparties + external 0xBd6a…9863). Running correctly through Cluster X→Y→Z rotation; Cluster Y renewed w151 (18:13 UTC, 9 min late). Cluster Z prefire at 19:03 UTC is effectively now. One persistent structural gap: sNVDA ask dark since inventory hit $0.09 — 1/12 book slots offline with no watcher-level alert or recovery trigger.

sNVDA inventory $0.09 → no sNVDA ask posted since at least w143 (~3 cluster cycles). Token burn $49.56/5h (34.2% pool) structurally exceeds spread-derived realized PnL of -$2.03. Both are inventory/economics constraints, not infra or counterparty failures.

Sound and on-mission. Wakes respond correctly to oracle drift (inversion guards firing at w147/w150/w151/w153), cluster prefire timers (w148 Cluster X, w151 Cluster Y, w153→Cluster Z), and fillable-intent detection. The w151 trigger being inversion-led rather than timer-led is acceptable given the BTC/SSV move — though the 9-min late arrival is worth tracking. No churn. No solving-the-wrong-proble

Cluster Z prefire timer at 19:03 UTC (ts 1781463816, 7min before BTC bid #1794 expiry ~19:10 UTC)

New fillable swap intent from non-self poster (newMatches on USDC/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

10 of 38 recent fills — top counterparty by count; external wallet with consistent swap demand

9 of 38 recent fills; primary taker of LP's crypto/SSV quotes on oracle lag; imminent wake (nextFallbackMin=9)

6 of 38 recent fills; rotational swap demand aligns with broad FILLABLE set

3 recent fills on stock asks; LP's sNVDA ask is dark so sNVDA demand goes elsewhere

3 recent fills; picks off LP quotes near expiry; nextFallbackMin=14

None identified — LP is maker-first; it posts quotes and waits for takers. The sNVDA ask gap means any sNVDA demand from Stacker-Massimo or Momentum-Nikita cannot be filled from LP's book, but LP cannot act without inventory.

Prefire timer fires 7min before cluster expiry — directly prevents quote gaps in the rolling cluster renewal cycle

Price inversion guards (ETH/BTC/SSV) catch free-option risk in real-time; correctly omits stock oracles as frozen off-hours Sunday

newMatches() on fillable swap intents covers the taker-opportunity trigger for the maker's fill side

Zero-LLM watcher with named label carrying context across PID restarts; 90-min fallback present

No inventory-low guard: sNVDA at $0.09 → ask slot dark for 3+ cluster cycles with zero watcher alert or recovery path

newMatches() initializes `seen` on first poll tick and returns early — intents posted during the first 60s window are missed (same blind spot confirmed in Stack

Cluster Y prefire was 9 min late (18:13 vs 18:04 target) because inversion guard pre-empted the timer — both triggers should coexist cleanly, but the 9-min gap

Add a low-inventory guard: if sNVDA balance < $1, fire immediately so the agent can evaluate restocking (take a resting sNVDA ask from the book) or log the gap — currently the book silently runs 11/12 indefinitely with no alert.

sNVDA inventory depleted — ask slot dark, no recovery path in watcher

sNVDA balance $0.09 since at least w143 (~3 cluster cycles). No sNVDA ask posted in Cluster X, Y, or Z. Stacker-Massimo and Momentum-Nikita sNVDA demand goes unfilled from LP's book. Watcher has no inventory-low guard to trigger re-acquisition or flag.

Add inventory-low check in wake script (fire if sNVDA < $1 USDC equivalent). Update CLAUDE.md to define rebalance protocol when inventory hits floor — e.g., scan book for resting sNVDA ask within 1% of oracle and take it to restock.

Token burn ($49.56/5h, 34.2% pool) outpaces realized PnL (-$2.03)

LP is net negative on realized PnL while consuming the single largest share of the token pool across the fleet. At $0.64/wake and 159 wakes, LLM costs structurally exceed spread income. Not an immediate crisis but a concern if pool budget tightens.

Audit LLM call depth per wake: if the dominant wake pattern is boilerplate quote-refresh (oracle flat, no inversions), consider reducing LLM depth for those cases. No urgent action needed at current pool size.

newMatches() first-tick blind spot — confirmed in LP-Maker and Stacker-Massimo

`seen` set initialized on first poll tick with early return → intents posted during the first 60s window are never evaluated. Both LP-Maker and Stacker-Massimo share this pattern.

SDK: initialize `seen` at watcher boot from a snapshot call before the loop starts, so no intents are silently skipped on the first tick.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

No BinaryBet on board to accept; no recent binary flow to mirror. Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on entire visible board (all int

Binary board empty for wakes w97–w100 (~1.5h); no new BinaryBets posted until bear-yosher's #1786. [object Object] in w100 is a rendering/serialization issue, not an accept gate block — w101 executed cleanly immediately after.

New BinaryBet appears on board (newMatches polling every 30s)

Deal #159 expiry -5 min (hardcoded DEAL_EXPIRY_TS 2026-06-15 ~16:27 UTC)

Primary BinaryBet writer; posted #1786 that mimic accepted as deal #159 — the sole reliable supply side

Occasionally posts binary intents; mimic has 1 settled deal against them

Also a binary taker — competes with mimic for the same intents rather than supplying them

New BinaryBet detection via newMatches is the correct primary trigger for a copy-trader — fires the moment supply appears

Deal expiry -5 min trigger lets mimic assess outcome and act at settlement boundary

60-min fallback prevents indefinite stale state; seenBinaryIds baseline avoids double-fire on startup

DEAL_EXPIRY_TS and the '#159' comment are hardcoded — every newly accepted deal requires a manual script rewrite; stale between deals

[object Object] serialization bug unaddressed since prior run — corrupts wake logs even when logic is correct

[object Object] status rendering bug (recurrent)

w100 logs '[object Object]' in the wake status position — a JavaScript object reference is being stringified as-is instead of its string value. Appeared in prior run, recurred here. Does not block execution (w101 accepted cleanly immediately after) but corrupts wake-log readability and makes post-mo

In mimic's CLAUDE.md output handler or wake logger, ensure the status field is JSON.stringify()ed or .toString()ed before being interpolated into the log line; the raw object reference is reaching the template literal.

Hardcoded deal expiry in wake script requires per-deal manual edit

DEAL_EXPIRY_TS = 1781546340 and FIRE_BEFORE_EXPIRY_SECS refer specifically to deal #159. After deal #159 settles, the expiry trigger becomes stale until the script is manually updated for the next accepted deal — creating a window where mimic runs without an expiry wake.

At watcher startup, dynamically fetch mimic's live open deals and derive the earliest expiry timestamp; use that as the trigger deadline. No per-deal script edit needed.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Summary: w38 (06-14T18:12, 53 min ago) confirms 7th consecutive hold since w31 — field compressed 0.076–0.814pp all day, well below 2pp threshold. Gap trajectory: 0.69pp (w35) → 0.521pp (w36) → 0.076pp (w37) → w38 notes crypto dipping modestly, still compressed. Portfolio stable ~$102.38, SSV ~50.4% (~22.39 units). Market-close trigger at 20:00 UTC (~55 min from now)

7 consecutive holds (w31–w38): field compressed 0.076–0.814pp all day Jun-14, never clearing the 2pp momentum threshold. Portfolio at $102.38 with SSV at 50.4%. Hold is correct. The 20:00 UTC market-close trigger (dropping sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT from ranking) is the next event — crypto-only re-rank could surface a cleaner leader.

Gap never cleared 2pp across any of 8 wakes today (w31: below threshold, w32: 0.08pp noise, w35: 0.69pp, w36: 0.521pp, w37: 0.076pp, w38: field 0.076–0.814pp). No fair-seller trigger (SSV or sNVDA ≤oracle*1.005, ≥$2 notional) has fired either. Market lacks momentum divergence above agent's minimum e

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly identifies noise vs signal across all 7 holds — 'the rule exists exactly to avoid chasing marginal edges' (w37) is the right framing. The '[object Object]' in w32–w38 log prefixes is a cosmetic serialization artifact (an object passed where a string is expected), not a reasoning failure. No churn — each wake adds a price snapshot and increments the consecutive

Leader-vs-2nd gap ≥2pp from dynamic baseline (full universe during market hours)

New fair SSV seller ≥$2 notional at ≤oracle*1.005

New fair sNVDA seller ≥$2 notional at ≤oracle*1.005

US market close 20:00 UTC Jun-14 (~55 min away) → re-rank crypto-only (BTC/ETH/SSV)

MISSING: no exit/rotate-out trigger when currently held asset (SSV) drops to last place — watcher catches new leaders but not departing ones

6 of 8 settled deals; deep inventory, 120 lifetime deals, primary swap counterparty

1 settled deal; takes delivered swaps when rebalancing toward target mix — occasional overlap

1 settled deal; picks off mispriced swaps opportunistically — could fill momentum-driven intents if priced attractively

None — no intent cleared the 2pp gap threshold or fair-seller criteria (SSV/sNVDA ≤oracle*1.005, ≥$2 notional) since w31. Metric is measurable: watcher polls readOpenIntents limit:60 each cycle.

Dynamic baseline capture on first poll — never hardcoded, so gap is always relative to this watcher's arm point

Market-close crypto-only switch (BTC/ETH/SSV post-20:00 UTC) correctly narrows universe when equities close

≥$2 notional guard prevents micro-lot false alarms (fix from w34 #1636 incident)

Multi-trigger design (gap + fair-seller + market-close + 8h fallback) means it won't sleep through actionable events

8h fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient momentum strategy

No rotate-out trigger: watcher fires when a NEW asset leads by ≥2pp but does NOT fire when currently held asset (SSV) drops to last place — the 'rotate as leade

Cosmetic: some wake log lines show '[object Object]' prefix (w32–w38) — an object is being concatenated where a string is expected in the log call; doesn't affe

Add a rotate-exit trigger: if the currently held non-USDC asset (SSV) falls to last place in the ranked field by ≥2pp behind the current leader, fire a wake — the mission explicitly says 'rotate as leadership shifts' but the watcher only ca

Missing rotate-out trigger in watcher

Watcher fires when a new leader emerges (gap ≥2pp) but has no symmetric trigger for when the currently held asset (SSV) loses leadership. An agent holding SSV that then lags BTC by 3pp would not be woken until the 8h fallback.

After computing rets[] ranking, check if the currently held non-USDC asset ranks last and trails the leader by ≥EDGE_PP — if so, fireWake('held asset SSV now last; rotation check needed').

'[object Object]' in wake log lines w32–w38

Wake decision prefix shows '[object Object]' instead of a readable label — an object is being string-concatenated in the wake log call. Cosmetic but obscures log parsing.

Find the log/decision string construction in CLAUDE.md or the agent's main loop and wrap the object with JSON.stringify() or extract the relevant string field.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: Still template-locked, process healthy. Armed (nextFallbackMin=181, pidAlive), 94 min since w33 at 17:31. No new deals since prior run — settled_deals_detail still shows the same 4 pre-existing 0x57F8…B0ff settlements (lifetime=5). W33 explicitly confirmed: 'Zero audited Option intents found; only Swaps and unknown custom deals' — Option-Writer's intent #179

AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH=0xb3d66f4... no longer matches Option-Writer's deployed template; Option-Writer's intents appear as 'unknown custom deals' (w33 verbatim) and never trigger a wake. Intent #1791 (sNVDA, 2 min TTL as of Step 1) expired unfilled — taker never saw it. When a hash-matching intent DID appear (w32, #1641), the agent woke, evaluated, and passed — confirming the edge-bar is working. One hash update unblocks the natural counterparty.

W33: 'Zero audited Option intents found; only Swaps and unknown custom deals.' Option-Writer intent #1791 (sNVDA) was live and near-expiry at Step-1 snapshot — taker did not wake for it. All 4 tracked settled deals are pre-existing 0x57F8…B0ff settlements; no new deals since w28 (06-11T15:44). Templ

Sound logic applied to a near-empty universe: w30 correctly rejected #1600 (coin-flip, 5-sigma breakeven), w31 correctly rejected it again (40x fair premium), w32 evaluated #1641 and passed — disciplined edge-bar. But this reasoning is solving the wrong problem: the template mismatch means 95%+ of available options (all Option-Writer posts) never reach evaluation. Well-calibrated filter, wrong has

New intent matching AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH=0xb3d66f4... detected in 60s poll

MISSING: Option-Writer's current template hash — taker won't fire for #1791 or any writer intent until hashes are aligned

Natural counterpart — writer posts options taker should buy — but template hash mismatch makes all writer intents invisible to taker's filte

Active (intent #1791 sNVDA posted, now e

Prior counterparty for all 4 tracked settled deals (custom settled); hash-compatible but unknown entity with no recent intent activity

Unknown — no new intents from this addre

Option-Writer intent #1791 (sNVDA, expired ~now per Step-1 2-min warning) — taker never woke for it due to hash mismatch. Any Option-Writer intents posted since w28 (06-11T15:44) are similarly missed. Unmeasurable whether 0x57F8 posted new matching intents — no recent book evidence.

60s poll cadence is correct for an option-taker that must react quickly to cheap/near-ITM posts

Template hash filter is architecturally sound — prevents taking unaudited custom deals

6h fallback is appropriate for a patient one-take-per-wake agent

seenIntentIds dedup prevents re-triggering on stale intents

AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH=0xb3d66f4... is stale — doesn't match Option-Writer's current deployed template, causing silent starvation

No log/alert emitted when zero matching intents are found across consecutive wakes (starvation is invisible until analysis)

Update AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH to Option-Writer's current deployed template hash — single-line change that unblocks the natural counterparty and is the only material fix needed.

Stale AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH — Option-Writer's intents invisible

Wake script hardcodes 0xb3d66f4... but Option-Writer's current template produces a different hash. W33 confirms: 'only Swaps and unknown custom deals' on book, zero audited Options found. Intent #1791 (sNVDA, 2 min TTL at Step-1) expired unfilled — taker never woke for it. No new deals since w28 (3+

Read Option-Writer's current deployed template hash from its CLAUDE.md or from a recently posted intent, update AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH in current.ts, re-arm watcher. Confirm hash by checking that readOpenIntents returns option-writer intents under the new hash before re-deploying.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Continue worst-2 stock rebalance: sAAPL/sNVDA now largest underweights. Deal 161 gives sAAPL, intent 1821 targets sNVDA

intent 1821 resolves, or deal 161 settles, or 2h fallback

Option sleeve: 1 intent in 6 wakes (w1 canceled w2); zero option intents w3–w6. Swap engine active: 20 settled deals, deal 160 (w6) via active taking. The option gap is not counterparty-starved — option-taker-matheus has 5 deals but is supply-starved because option-writer stopped supplying.

intent 1791 resolves (ownIntentResolved fills or expires)

Primary counterparty (3 of 5 recent deals, 119 lifetime). Currently holds live sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVDA, implied 204.7 USDC/sNVDA

Natural demand-side for options option-writer's silent sleeve would produce; 5 lifetime deals but currently starved of new option supply fro

1 settled deal; also accumulates sNVDA/sAAPL but stacker-massimo's newMatches() blind-spot may prevent it from seeing 1791 as a takeable int

Watches intent 1791 via ownIntentResolved — fires on the exact event (fill or expiry), not a blind timer

2h fallback prevents stall if resolution event is missed

60s poll cadence is appropriate for swap settlement

No option-sleeve prompt or label: when 1791 resolves, the next wake LLM has no standing nudge to evaluate option pricing — it has consistently deprioritized the

Option sleeve silent for 5 consecutive wakes (30% of mission dormant)

1 ETH call posted w1 (6 USDC, 4% premium, strike 1682), canceled w2. W3–W6 reason exclusively about swaps. W6 had 55+ USDC buffer and no mention of option pricing. LLM systematically deprioritizes options when a swap intent is live.

Add explicit two-engine protocol to CLAUDE.md: 'Each wake: (1) check swap rebalance need, (2) independently check option sleeve — fetch BTC/ETH spot, price a call/put, post if spread is positive. Option check is not optional even if a swap intent is pending.' Wake-script label change above reinforce

Passive stock bids repeatedly expire unfilled (w3/w4/w5); active taking is better

0x68e/0x68f (w3), 0x6b4/0x6b5 (w4), 0x6e2/0x6e3 (w5) all expired without fill. W6 active take of intent 1776 (deal 160) worked where passive posting failed three times. No agent provides consistent stock sell-side, so passive bids are mostly wasted TTL.

Encode active-take preference in CLAUDE.md: 'Before posting a new passive buy intent, scan resting asks within 0.5% of oracle and take the best one directly; only post a passive bid if no resting ask exists.' This mirrors what w6 did successfully.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Position held post-horizon at natural trigger until exit filled, clearing inventory and returning capital. Fresh cash +

sMSFT<$420 intent #0x0723 resolves, new intent appears (≥8pp bet, ≥3% swap), or 24h fallback

3 lifetime settled deals all vs Mimic-Ljuba (custom live); exit intents #1711, #1754 both expired unfilled; LP-Maker declined at w51 ('Exit post failed; LP acti...'); #1789 open, unfilled; oracle mid $291/sAAPL equivalent finding no taker across 3 attempts

#1789 fill or expiry (ownIntentResolved, 60s poll)

MISSING: explicit cancel/idempotency check for prior exit intents before re-posting (no-cancel-before-repost is the root of the w49/w50 duplicate)

Natural taker for sAAPL→USDC at oracle mid; 119 lifetime deals, inventory depth; but declined at w51 — pricing or inventory management misma

Sole settled counterparty (3 custom-live deals); no confirmed sAAPL demand; unlikely to take a swap exit

sAAPL accumulator by mission; could take the sell side if priced within ~1% of oracle, but Stacker's watcher misses resting asks

Monitors the correct current intent (#1789) via ownIntentResolved — no more #1754 blind spot

60s poll cadence appropriate for 1h exit intents

24h fallback (nextFallbackMin 1437) prevents permanent orphaning

Zero-LLM, deterministic — fires on resolution event, not book state

No idempotency check before arming: if #1789 expires and a new wake re-posts immediately, the w49/w50 double-post pattern can recur

No opportunity scan during the wait — agent could detect Polymarket-priced binary mispricings while holding the exit

Double-post exit logic — duplicate exit intents on consecutive wakes

w49 posted #1711 and w50 posted #1754 (same 0.085722 sAAPL → 24.96 USDC) 1 min apart; both expired unfilled; now replaced by #1789 via the same unguarded mechanism — root cause unpatched

Add idempotency check in CLAUDE.md exit logic: query live intents before posting; if an exit intent with matching give-asset and give-amount already exists on-chain, monitor it rather than re-posting

sAAPL stranded 53h+ past horizon — 3 exit attempts at oracle mid, all expired/pending

28% of portfolio locked in sAAPL ($24.96); oracle mid pricing ($291/sAAPL equivalent) not clearing vs LP-Maker across #1711, #1754, #1789; no price concession mechanism

After 2+ failed exit attempts at oracle mid, CLAUDE.md should allow a small concession (e.g. −0.5% → 24.83 USDC) to incentivize LP-Maker fill; log as 'slippage exit' vs 'oracle exit'

Polymarket distribution data unavailability silently blocks binary edge at w53

w53: 'BTC binary edge requires distribution data (need poll-polyma...)' — entire binary opportunity scan skipped when poll unavailable; agent has no fallback or logged skip

SDK: make poll-polymarket non-blocking with a short-TTL cache; on miss, agent logs 'binary: skipped, no market data' and continues rather than silently dropping the analysis

w54 timestamp anomaly (18:05) precedes w52 (19:32) and w53 (20:00) in data

Wake numbers imply w54 is most recent, but its timestamp is 18:05 — 1h27m before w53 at 20:00; watcher source confirms #1789 is current, so w54 is likely last; display ordering or timestamp recording bug

Audit wake-log timestamp recording in the agent's state persistence; ensure wake timestamps are written at wake-start not at some earlier trigger time

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

US stock oracle offline until 06-16T13:30Z; agent correctly deferred at w47. No infra fault, no toolchain block, no counterparty issue.

Poll: Date.now() >= 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z checked every 5 min — fires within one 5-min interval of open

Fallback: 2026-06-16T14:30:00Z hardcoded at arm-time (nextFallbackMin: 2660 confirms alignment)

Filled rebalancer's BTC DCA (#1294 at +4% premium) and ETH (#1156); 11 open intents, deep inventory — most likely counterparty for Monday BT

Poll fires within 5 min of 13:30Z — no meaningful execution slippage

FALLBACK_MS computed from fixed 14:30Z UTC at arm-time — immune to accumulated clock drift

Zero-LLM watcher, fallback present, cadence matches patient DCA mission; 14:30Z fallback leaves 6.5 h of market hours for a retry

Process-local only: if pidAlive flips false over the 48h weekend, both the poll loop and the fallback die with the process — no external watchdog re-arms

Fallback is 60 min after open; a tighter gap (e.g., 13:45Z) would give a faster second attempt if the 13:30Z trim fails without waiting until 14:30Z

No external watchdog: process death over 48h weekend silently drops Monday wake

The watcher PID is written to data/wake/current.pid and both the poll loop and fallback live in that process. If the process dies before 06-16T13:30Z, watcher.armed flips false and the Monday trim is missed with no alert. nextFallbackMin: 2660 is only valid while pidAlive: true.

Add a watchdog cron (fleet-level) that detects pidAlive=false and re-arms the watcher from the last wake-script, OR persist the target timestamp to data/ so a fresh boot can self-re-arm without human intervention.

Stacker-Massimo

Taker-led tech-equity accumulator: take resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle, 24/7, ~10 USDC lots; post own bid at oracle+0.5% only when nothing is takeable. Accumulate until 100 USDC deployed; never sell.

No posterGives=sNVDA intent exists. Bid 1599 within drift threshold. Nothing to do.

current.ts lines 55–58: seenIntents seeded on first loop; newMatches() fires only on net-new intentIds. w41 log: 'No sell-side in book' at 17:58 — LP-Maker ask arrived after w41 but before or at watcher seed. Step-1 reports ask with 12m TTL ~7min ago; fallback has 35m remaining → miss is permanent.

intent 1599 resolved (filled/expired) — ownIntentResolved()

oracle drift >0.5% from hardcoded ORACLE_BASE $205.10

NEW post-seed sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC via newMatches()

45-min fallback (35m remaining this cycle)

MISSING: full-scan every poll for ANY resting takeable sNVDA sell regardless of arrival time

3 of 4 logged deals; live sNVDA ask on book right now; dominant and reliable counterparty

1 settled deal; episodically posts sNVDA during portfolio rebalancing

could post sNVDA sells during rotation; not yet confirmed as counterparty

ownIntentResolved() correctly monitors bid 1599 — fills/expiry trigger immediate wake

oracle drift >0.5% trigger correctly catches price moves that shift takeable range

isTakeableSnvdaSell() logic is correct: checks posterGives=sNVDA, costUsdc ≤12, impliedPrice ≤oracle×1.01

60s poll cadence appropriate — sub-minute but not spammy for a ~10 USDC taker

trigger 3 uses newMatches() with seenIntents seeded on first poll — silently absorbs any ask resting at arm time

for short-TTL asks (≤12m), 45-min fallback fires after expiry — blind-spot produces permanent misses, not just delays

ORACLE_BASE hardcoded to $205.10 at script-write time — becomes stale if oracle has moved since w41 posted bid 1599; drift trigger threshold shifts silently

newMatches() blind-spot: pre-seed resting asks permanently missed on short TTLs

current.ts trigger 3 seeds seenIntents on first loop iteration (line 55–58); any ask already on-book at that moment is silently skipped. For short-TTL asks (LP-Maker's current 12m ask), the 45-min fallback fires ~33m after expiry — miss is permanent. This cycle: LP-Maker ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVD

Remove newMatches()/seenIntents from trigger 3. Replace with: `if (intents.some(i => isTakeableSnvdaSell(i, oracleNow))) fireWake(`takeable sNVDA sell on book`);` — runs every 60s poll, zero blind-spot.

ORACLE_BASE hardcoded at script-write time — stale after price moves

ORACLE_BASE = 205.10 is embedded in the script at the time the LLM writes current.ts. If sNVDA oracle has moved since bid 1599 was posted, the drift trigger fires at wrong thresholds. Low severity vs the newMatches issue but causes ghost fires.

Fetch live oracle on first poll and use that as the baseline, or pass current oracle price as an arm-time env var that the watcher reads rather than hardcoding.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Nothing crosses the 1.5% dislocation threshold. Stocks market-hours blocked (Sunday). Best move: wait.

crypto dislocation ≥1.5% OR US market open 2026-06-15T13:30 UTC (4h fallback)

BTC deviation -0.40% vs 1.5% threshold (need drop to ~$63,201 from ~$63,909). Stocks gated by isUsMarketHours() Sunday. SSV zero inventory documented w30–w33, still blocked. No dislocation on any asset across w34–w37 (4 consecutive no-trade wakes since session restart).

≥1.5% deviation from trailing avg on any active asset (60s poll)

MISSING: If SSV crosses 1.5% the watcher fires, but zero inventory causes immediate abort — wasted wake and tokens with no possible trade

Both recent settled deals cleared via LP-Maker; 11 open intents across swap pairs; dominant hub for delivered swaps

DCA via delivered swaps — could cross swing if rebalancing same assets in opposite direction on a dislocation day

Baselines regenerated each wake from fresh price scan — trailing average stays current without LLM involvement

isUsMarketHours() gate correctly prevents Sunday triggers on sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT

2h fallback ensures re-check even in flat markets; cadence appropriate for a patient mean-reversion agent

Zero-LLM watcher with clean threshold math; can't spuriously fire on 'book non-empty'

SSV included in 60s poll loop despite zero inventory since w30 — any SSV dislocation fires a wake that immediately aborts

ETH is the only unconstrained live trigger (baseline 1663.44, buy at ~$1,638) but its proximity to threshold is invisible in status logs

SSV zero-inventory wake waste — 6+ wakes affected

SSV has had zero inventory since at least w30 (documented in every wake log w30–w33, and blocked again at the structural level). The watcher still polls SSV every 60s. If SSV drops 1.5% the watcher fires a full wake that immediately aborts: 'SSV blocked by zero inventory'. Pattern confirmed across 6

Remove SSV from BASELINES in current.ts until inventory is replenished, or add a lightweight inventory check inside the loop before the price read. Agent CLAUDE.md should document the re-stocking trigger (e.g., receive SSV from another agent or direct deposit).

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

1826 duplicated 1829 (same asset/kind, posted by concurrent wake 138). 1829 slightly cheaper for taker so takers prefer

17 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781465233; next poll 60s

0 takeable/0 mirrorable w121-w124; rivals at 0.22-0.35% (w123) vs Vulture 1% floor; 5 sells + 5 buys open across sAAPL/sMSFT/ETH/BTC/SSV with no takers; recent settled: 4 deals ↔ LP-Maker, 1 ↔ Momentum-Nikita

new takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges every 30s)

~5 min pre-expiry of soonest open intent

quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: binary near-decided / approaching-resolution trigger

4/5 recent deals ↔ LP-Maker; but direction unclear — if LP-Maker is taker on Vulture's maker intents, Vulture may be mispriced in LP-Maker's

1 recent swap deal; rotates across same asset universe Vulture covers

DCA swaps in same assets; could take Vulture's maker bids on rebalance slices

Crypto-down taker; ETH/BTC sell bids Vulture posts align if BTC conviction fires

30s token-free polling via scan-edges + check-my-quotes — correct zero-LLM loop for a reactive taker/maker hybrid

Pre-seeded honeypot IDs (779/836/869) prevent watcher from re-firing on confirmed bad intents

Pre-expiry trigger preserves book presence around intent TTL windows

check-my-quotes cancelCmds correctly fired in w120 catching SSV undercut before agent woke

No binary near-decided / approaching-resolution scan — Vulture's mission explicitly covers near-decided binaries but the watcher has no specific trigger for the

1% edge floor hardcoded; with LP-Maker at 0.22-0.35%, Vulture's maker intents will structurally never attract organic takers on shared instruments

Maker floor 1% vs LP-Maker 0.22-0.35% — structurally uncompetitive on all 7 shared assets

LP-Maker compressed from 1.31% (last cycle) to 0.22-0.35% this cycle. Vulture's 1% floor is 3-4x LP-Maker's tightest spread on identical instruments. No taker will prefer Vulture's 1% over LP-Maker's 0.35%. Result: 0 maker fills in w121-w124 despite 10-11 live intents.

Lower maker floor to <0.5% to compete, OR restrict maker intents to instruments LP-Maker doesn't quote (binary bets, options, index baskets) where 1% may be competitive.

4/5 recent deals ↔ LP-Maker — direction unverified, adverse selection risk

If LP-Maker is taking Vulture's maker quotes (not vice versa), LP-Maker sees edge in them — Vulture's oracle pricing may lag LP-Maker's real-time feed. Requires inspecting deal maker/taker sides in settled_deals_detail.

Check deal direction for the 4 LP-Maker trades; if LP-Maker is consistently taker-side on Vulture intents, Vulture's oracle reference is stale relative to LP-Maker's and needs a tighter price source.

Binary near-decided path has no watcher trigger

Vulture's mission includes 'near-decided binaries' but w121-w124 show only swap scanning; no binary expiry events fired wakes. Vulture relies on 2h fallback or accidental quote-erosion path to catch approaching binary resolutions — potentially missing its highest-edge category.

Extend scan-edges output to flag binaries approaching resolution (e.g., <5% from strike with <2h TTL), and add a fireWake trigger in the watcher when one appears.

HUB DOMINATES; OPTIONS DARK

Active hub — 7+ deals this cycle, Cluster Z live, 7 reliable counterparties

Active — 2 fills this cycle after session restart

Rebalancer-Lior ⇄ LP-Maker-Matheus / 0xBd6a

Dormant by design — waiting for Monday 06-16T13:30Z US open (nextFallbackMin=258

Thin — 1 deal this cycle; BTC margin worsening to -1.93% (was -1.49% at w226)

Blocked — LP-Maker 0.22-0.35% undercuts Vulture's 1% floor; 10 open intents, 0 f

Thin but live — deal #159 settled; Mimic resting (armed, nextFallbackMin=44, pid

Option-Taker decoder hash mismatch (template-locked)

Option-Writer's output is invisible to Option-Taker — intent #1791 (10 USDC→sNVDA) expired with Taker armed but unable t

W33: 'Zero audited Option intents found; only Swaps and unknown custom deals'; Option-Taker reliableCounterparties=0; 4 settled deals all pre-existing 0x57F8 settlements

Option-Writer drifted to swap engine (off-mission)

Even when the decoder fix lands, option supply-side will be near-dry — 1 option intent across 6 wakes vs 20 swap deals;

Option-Writer rootCause=off-mission: 'option gap is not counterparty-starved — option-writer stopped supplying'; swap engine: 20 settled deals, deal #160 via active taking at w6

LP-Maker Cluster Y/Z compressed spreads to 0.22-0.35%

Vulture-Andrew's hardcoded 1% floor renders all 10 open maker positions (sAAPL/sMSFT/ETH/BTC/SSV) structurally uncompeti

W123: 'rivals at 0.22-0.35%'; Vulture recent settled: 4 deals all as taker vs LP-Maker, 0 as maker this cycle

Stacker-Massimo newMatches() seeds seenIntents once on first loop, not per wake

Any LP-Maker intent arriving post-seed is permanently invisible until next fallback; LP-Maker sNVDA ask (posted after w4

current.ts lines 55-58: single-seed pattern; w41: 'No sell-side in book' at 17:58; Step-1 sNVDA ask had 12m TTL with 35m fallback remaining → structural miss

Mimic-Ljuba is Polymarket-Ljuba's sole counterparty (3/3 lifetime deals vs Mimic) and is currently resting (nextFallback

Exit intent #1789 will likely expire as the 4th consecutive unfilled attempt unless Mimic wakes within TTL; LP-Maker can

Polymarket-Ljuba rootCause=counterparty-starved; intents #1711, #1754 both expired; #1789 open with unknown TTL; Mimic armed+alive but 44 min away

index-maker and index-taker never provisioned (wake_script_source=null, wakes=0)

IndexBasket market segment has had zero liquidity for 35-36 consecutive cycles — not a crash recovery, a first-deploymen

Both agents: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, metrics.wakes=0

Option market double-broken: decoder locked + writer off-mission

Two independent failures block the entire option segment. (1) Option-Taker template decoder can't recognize any Option-Writer intent (w33: 'Zero audited Option intents found') — 0 new deals since 06-11T15:44, reliableCounterparties=0. (2) Option-Writer has posted only 1 option intent across 6 wakes vs 20 swap deals — even after the decoder fix, supply will be thin. Intent #1791 (10 USDC→sNVDA) almost certainly expired with Taker armed b

Option-Taker: rootCause=toolchain-blocked, 0 new deals since w28; Option-Writer: rootCause=off-mission, swap engine produced 20 deals vs 1 option intent

Priority 1: fix Option-Taker decoder hash to match Option-Writer's template (unblocks the accept gate). Priority 2: add a per-wake option-intent check in Option-Writer CLAUDE.md — require ≥1 option posted before any swap activity to prevent mission drift.

IndexBasket fully offline — 35-36 null cycles, never provisioned

index-maker (35th null cycle) and index-taker (36th null cycle) share identical infra-down state: wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, no wallet, no watcher. Both sides of the segment are dark. This is a first-deployment gap, not a crash requiring recovery.

Both agents: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=0

Provision wallets and wake scripts for index-maker and index-taker. No state to recover — first-time deployment. Unblocks the only market segment with zero lifetime volume.

Stacker-Massimo structural blind-spot — 2 confirmed LP-Maker ask misses

newMatches() seeds seenIntents once at first loop per run; intents arriving after that seed are invisible until the next fallback wake. LP-Maker sNVDA ask confirmed missed this cycle (posted after w41, 12m TTL, fallback 35m away). Pattern now confirmed across 2 consecutive cycles.

current.ts lines 55-58; w41: 'No sell-side in book' at 17:58; Step-1 sNVDA ask had ≤12m TTL ~7 min before synthesis — fallback miss is structural, not timing

Re-seed seenIntents at the start of each wake iteration. Single-line fix; eliminates the dead zone between wakes and captures LP-Maker's 60-min cadence quotes reliably.

Polymarket-Ljuba exit stalled — 4th attempt likely to expire unfilled

3 prior exit intents (#1711, #1754, #1789) all unfilled against oracle mid ~$291/sAAPL. LP-Maker declined explicitly ('LP acti...' at w51). Mimic-Ljuba (3/3 lifetime fills) is alive but resting 44 min out. If #1789's TTL is shorter than 44 min, this is another miss.

polymarket-ljuba: reliableCounterparties=1 (Mimic only); rootCause=counterparty-starved; 3 consecutive unfilled attempts; Mimic nextFallbackMin=44

Diagnose LP-Maker's 'LP acti...' rejection for Polymarket exit intents — likely an inventory gate. Enabling LP-Maker as a second counterparty makes Mimic's resting periods non-blocking.

Vulture-Andrew maker spread uncompetitive vs LP-Maker's 0.22-0.35% cluster quotes

LP-Maker's Cluster Z spreads (0.22-0.35%) undercut Vulture's 1% floor on all 5 asset pairs (sAAPL, sMSFT, ETH, BTC, SSV). 10 open intents, 0 maker fills w121-w124. Taker side equally dry: 0 mirrorable edges found same wakes. Recent settled: 4 deals all as taker vs LP-Maker, 0 as maker.

W123: 'rivals at 0.22-0.35%' vs Vulture 1% floor; vulture reliableCounterparties=2; recent settled 4 deals all taker-side

Review Vulture's 1% maker floor — lower to 0.5% or make it dynamic vs observed rival spread. Alternatively, prioritize the taker sleeve when LP-Maker dominates book depth.

LP-Maker healthy hub — 7 counterparties, Cluster Z live, 12+ deals this cycle

Cluster Y/Z transition executed correctly at w151-w152 (22 TXs, 9-min delay attributed to price-inversion trigger vs pure timer). sNVDA inventory at $0.09 limits ask-side only. Token burn $49.56/5h is a known structural cost.

reliableCounterparties=7; 7+ LP-Maker settlements in recent deals list; Cluster Z confirmed live at w152; rootCause=structural (sNVDA inventory), not infra or counterparty failure

Monitor sNVDA inventory — at $0.09 the ask side is dark; consider a planned rebalance to restore two-sided sNVDA quoting.

Fix Option-Taker template decoder hash — highest-leverage single unblock: restores option accept capacity; Option-Writer has proven posting ability (20 swap deals) so the supply side recovers fast once the gate opens.

Provision index-maker + index-taker (wallet + wake script) — 35-36 null cycles with zero lifetime volume; the IndexBasket segment is permanently dark until first deployment fires.

Stacker-Massimo: re-seed seenIntents per wake iteration — single-line fix, 2 confirmed LP-Maker ask misses already, high ROI given LP-Maker's 60-min quote cadence.

Option-Writer: enforce ≥1 option intent posted per wake before any swap activity — swap engine is crowding out the primary mission sleeve (1 option vs 20 swaps across 6 wakes).

Diagnose LP-Maker's 'LP acti...' rejection of Polymarket-Ljuba exit intents — adding LP-Maker as a second valid counterparty breaks the Mimic-only dependency and clears the exit backlog.

Worse vs last run: Mimic-Ljuba newly crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 135 min dormant after w101 accepted deal #159) while Swing-Nikita activated (2 fills ↔ LP-Maker), and Option-Writer posted 2 swap-route deals — but Option-Taker remains template-locked and the Index segment hits its 35th cons

Mimic-Ljuba: armed=false, pidAlive=false, 135 min since last wake — process crash after w101, needs diagnosis

Option-Taker template-lock: 0 new deals since 4 pre-existing 0x57F8 settlements; writer active but taker can't accept (template hash mismatch confirmed prior run)

Two live intents expiring RIGHT NOW: Option-Writer #1791 (10 USDC→sNVDA, 2 min left) and Polymarket-Ljuba #1789 (sAAPL→24.96 USDC, 1 min left)

Arb-Hunter-Tom nextFallbackMin=9 and Vulture-Andrew nextFallbackMin=14 — both imminent wakes; Vulture's 2 open intents (sNVDA bid 13 min, sAAPL ask 12 min) also near-expiry

Stacker-Massimo structural blind-spot (newMatches() can't see post-wake intents) confirmed again this cycle; LP-Maker sNVDA ask from prior cycle almost certainly expired unfilled

Index segment: 34th/35th null cycle for index-maker/index-taker — no deployment signal, zero lifetime tokens, both sides of IndexBasket fully offline

HIGH_WATER advanced to 1789 (35 new intents, 0 fills); BTC margin worsened to -1.93% at w231 vs -1.49% at w226. With nextFallbackMin=9 (imminent w232), did the agent find any takeable binary or swap edge since w231, and is BTC drift moving

Deal #159 (BTC<$64,500, expiry 2026-06-15 18:04 UTC) is now the live open position; the custom intent showing 0 min left confirms that bet is running. Has the agent posted a new BTC binary since #159 was filled, and has it made progress on

34th consecutive null cycle — no wallet, no config, no watcher. Is there any new provisioning signal this cycle (wallet address, env var, config file) that breaks the streak, or is this still fully undeployed?

35th consecutive null cycle — identical dead state to index-maker, its only natural counterparty. Any new provisioning signal, or still fully offline alongside index-maker?

Hub of 12/16 recent deals; pidAlive=false but armed=true with nextFallbackMin=71 (normal). Prior noted sNVDA inventory at $0.09 with no sNVDA ask in Cluster X/Y, and Cluster Y prefire was scheduled ~18:04 UTC. Did the Cluster Y prefire fire

Armed=false, pidAlive=false, 135 min since last wake (w101 accepted deal #159 at ~18:04 UTC). Per the observer rules, armed=false AND pidAlive=false = crashed. Did the process crash immediately after w101, or is there a deliberate shutdown

SSV lead at 0.076pp (vs 2pp threshold), falling from 0.521pp at w36 — gap shrinking fast. Market-close trigger fires at 20:00 UTC (~1h51min from last w37 at ~18:09 UTC). Is the agent still correctly holding, or has the gap crossed some othe

Template-lock confirmed: 4 settled deals are all pre-existing 0x57F8 settlements (no new deals since w33 at 17:31). Option-Writer just had intent #1791 (sNVDA, 2 min left) expiring NOW. Is the template hash the ONLY blocker to any new deal,

Intent #1791 (10 USDC → 0.04878 sNVDA) had 2 min left at fleet snapshot — it has almost certainly expired or settled by now. Agent last woke 136 min ago with nextFallbackMin=65 (wake imminent). Did #1791 settle or expire, and what does the

Exit #1789 (0.085722 sAAPL → 24.96 USDC) had 1 min left at snapshot — expired or settling NOW. NextFallbackMin=1384 (~23h dormant after this). Did #1789 settle (exiting the sAAPL position cleanly) or expire unfilled again, and if unfilled,

Correctly waiting for Monday 2026-06-16T13:30Z US stock open; nextFallbackMin=2607 arithmetically confirms fallback lands ~06-16T13:30Z. Recent deal list shows 'Rebalancer-Lior ↔ 0xBd6a [Swap] settled' — was that a new deal this cycle (coun

Structural blind-spot (newMatches() can't see intents posted after its wake) confirmed last cycle — LP-Maker's sNVDA ask posted after w41 had ≤12 min left and almost certainly expired unfilled. NextFallbackMin=35, last wake 18 min ago. Did

Last wake just 7 min ago (most recent of any agent); 2 recent deals ↔ LP-Maker. BTC gap to 1.5% trigger still ~$708 ($63,909 spot vs baseline $64,163). What did the fresh w38 find — did it act on a dislocation, and did the SSV position or i

Two open intents near-expiry: sNVDA bid (1.76 USDC → 0.00858118 sNVDA, 13 min left) and sAAPL ask (0.02763166 sAAPL → 8.125406 USDC, 12 min left). LP-Maker compressed spreads to 0.22–0.35% vs Vulture's 1% floor (structurally uncompetitive).

Diagnose and restart Mimic-Ljuba: watcher crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false) 135 min after w101 accepted deal #159 — check last log for exit code / error before restart

Fix Option-Taker's AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH to match Option-Writer's current contract hash (0x6e2/0x6e3 generation) — template-lock has blocked all new option deals for multiple cycles

stacker-massimo: fix newMatches() to run a fresh book query at take-time (not just at wake-start) so short-TTL LP-Maker asks posted after the wake are not structurally invisible

Deploy index-maker and index-taker (35th consecutive null cycle each) — assign wallets and start watchers to bring the IndexBasket market segment online

polymarket-ljuba: check if #1789 (sAAPL exit, 1 min left) settled or expired; if expired, force a repost before nextFallbackMin=1384 locks the agent dormant for ~23h with sAAPL still held