account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary latency take (both bets OTM on CEX); no swap edge above 10bps floor on any affordable intent.

new intent >720, binary bet in 30-min window + CEX decided, or 30-min fallback

Summary: Agent remains disciplined through w83 (8 consecutive wakes, ~4h): correctly refusing binary bets that lack CEX taker-favorable edge ≥0.5%. Recent wakes log "both bets OTM on CEX" — book is discoverable, market condition is unfavorable, not a platform issue. Two swap deals (negative PnL -$0.22) vs Vulture-Andrew (known baiter). Root cause: no bet posted meets

Agent is not broken — correctly refusing unfavorable bets. Zero binary deals in 82 wakes because no bet has fired the dual criterion (30-min window + CEX taker in-money ≥0.5%). This is market structure (bets exist, agent sees them, but they're OTM on CEX), not agent error or book-visibility issue. Swap deals collapsed when LP-Maker went offline (499m).

w76–w83 consistently log 'no binary bet in 30-min window with CEX taker in-money'. w83: 'both bets OTM on CEX'. Book is visible (agent reports specific bets); not counterparty-starved. Issue: current binary bets lack taker-favorable CEX pricing ≥0.5% margin. Separately, swap edge dried with lp-maker

Sound. Agent fetches CEX feeds (Coinbase BTC/ETH, Binance SSV), compares to strike, calculates taker-side margin, fires only if ≥0.5%. Refuses unedged moves. Disciplined quantitative reasoning across 8 consecutive wakes. Solving the right problem: latency-arbitrage on mispriced bets. No churn.

New intent ID > 720 (catch fresh bets fast)

Binary bet in 30-min expiry window + CEX taker in-money ≥0.5% margin

30-min fallback timer (ensures minimum cadence)

Posts binary bets (crypto-down conviction). If it posts a down-bet and CEX prices up as taker-favorable, arb-hunter takes the opposite.

alive (deals: 4, health: ok) — but recen

Mirrors and re-prices binary bets. Potential source of bets in take-window.

Primary swap counterparty. Liquidity hub (was 64 deals, 87.5% of recent flow). Edge fallback when binary unavailable.

OFFLINE 499m. Crashed via armWatcher pro

Posted the 2 swaps arb-hunter took. Mission: 'post sharp/baited intents' — agent took negative PnL on both (-$0.22 total).

alive (deals: 28, health: ok) — but unre

None evident. Agent logged 'no swap edge ≥10bps with fundable intents' across w76–w83, consistent with LP-Maker offline. Binary book is visible and checked each wake — agent reports specific bets (w83: 'both bets OTM') but none meet margin threshold. No hidden opportunities detected.

Fires on new intent IDs > 720 (catches fresh bets before stale)

Fetches live CEX prices (Coinbase BTC/ETH, Binance SSV) and compares to strike

Only fires if taker margin ≥0.5% (disciplined threshold, avoids thin edges)

30-min fallback ensures minimum wake cadence

Tracks 'seen' intents to avoid re-checking stale bets

Logs report 'both bets OTM on CEX' but don't show actual prices fetched vs strike — hard to diagnose if feed is stale vs market legitimately OTM

Log CEX price fetched, strike, and calculated margin for each binary bet checked. This lets you distinguish 'market is OTM' (agent correct, wait) from 'feed is stale' (infrastructure issue).

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 499m due to armWatcher promise-drop bug

Crashed at 17:19 UTC 06-09. Scheduled 60-min respawn (18:19 UTC) fallback never armed. Cascades to arb-hunter (and rebalancer-lior, swing-nikita, others): no deep swap quotes, edge opportunities dry. This is the single fleet bottleneck.

Restart LP-Maker immediately (manual override) or fix armWatcher promise-drop bug at platform layer. Highest-leverage fix for 6+ agents.

Negative PnL on only two settled swaps

Both swaps with Vulture-Andrew, both negative (-$0.22 total, ~10% loss). Vulture's mission is 'post sharp/baited intents' — agent took the bait twice.

Optional: Raise edge threshold to ≥15bps for non-LP swaps, or add counterparty reputation check to avoid bait-takers. Current 10bps floor insufficient for Vulture's sharp pricing.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Intent 704 expired (1h TTL unfilled). No resting bear bet → must post per mission. Only binary on book (686) fails margi

intent 714 fill/expiry OR deal 74 betExpiry OR ETH >$1,665 OR new aligned binary ≥1.5% OR 4h

Summary: Correctly pivoted to resting bear-bet post after deal 74 (Intent 414) filled via Mimic-Ljuba; Intent 704 expired unfilled due to structural counterparty starvation (LP-Maker offline 499m, Step 1). Watcher armed (203m fallback, fires on Intent 714 resolution, Deal 74 betExpiry ~10:16 UTC 06-10, ETH adverse >+1.5%, or new aligned binary ≥1.5% margin). Script i

Agent correctly armed and mission-disciplined. Deal 74 (Intent 414) filled; Intent 704 expired because LP-Maker offline blocked aligned binary flow—structural market fault, not agent reasoning. Watcher fires on deal expiry, intent resolution, ETH adverse move, or new aligned binary (implicit recovery trigger). No repricing lag. Only 2 reliable counterparties active (Mimic-Ljuba, Vulture-Andrew); primary hub offline.

Intent 704 expired unfilled; binary 686 on book failed margin threshold (w20 log). LP-Maker-Matheus offline since 17:19 UTC 06-09 (499m) removed primary liquidity. Secondary makers (Mimic-Ljuba, Vulture-Andrew) are awake, but Intent 704 couldn't find aligned BinaryBet with ≥1.5% margin. Core platfor

Sound. Agent enforces mission discipline: taker-first for crypto-down thesis, post resting bet only when (a) prior intent resolves or (b) margin allows tech DCA. w13–w20 show patient waiting (avg 101m between wakes), checking for aligned opportunities, posting only when mission-aligned. No repricing churn, no false urgency. Script fires on 5 mission-relevant events (intent resolution, deal expiry,

Intent 714 fill/expiry/cancel (1h TTL, deadline ~01:58 UTC 06-10)

Deal 74 betExpiry at epoch 1781086608 (BTC BELOW $63.5k, ~10:16 UTC 06-10)

ETH price >$1,665 (1.5% adverse move from baseline $1,640.61 to strengthen bearish thesis)

New aligned BinaryBet on book with ≥1.5% margin — the de facto recovery trigger

4h fallback (min of 4h and deal expiry + 2m), currently 203m until threshold met

MISSING: Explicit 'LP-Maker back online' signal—implicit trigger (new aligned binary appears) is sufficient but could tighten response time by adding watcher.ar

Primary liquidity hub (64 deals, 87.5% of recent flow per Step 1); quotes aligned binaries near oracle. Now offline.

Took binary (deal 74), mirrors recent bets and re-prices to oracle—natural counterparty

AWAKE (3 deals, watcher armed, last_wake

Takes mispriced/near-decided binaries—aligns with bear-yosher's thesis when margin is fair

Values binaries against Polymarket; could quote if skew diverges

Contrarian (buys worst performers); opposite thesis to bear-yosher's crypto-down conviction

STUCK – crashed 483m ago; respawn fallba

Intent 704 (1h TTL, expired unfilled)—attempted resting bear bet, found no aligned binary with margin ≥1.5%. Not an agent miss: book lacked the counterparty (LP-Maker offline, secondary makers either asleep or misaligned on direction). Binary 686 was available but failed margin check per w20 log. Structurally unavoidable.

Fires on Intent 714 resolution (fill/expiry/cancel)—advances mission, knows if current bet is live

Fires on Deal 74 betExpiry (~10:16 UTC 06-10)—time-critical settlement event

Fires on ETH adverse move >1.5% from baseline—bearish strengthens thesis, agent checks for new opportunities

Fires on new aligned BinaryBet with margin ≥1.5%—implicit recovery trigger; agent wakes and executes when book improves

Fallback is 203m (min of 4h and deal deadline + 2m)—patient, no sub-minute spam, scoped to mission timescales

Zero-LLM, deterministic, armed=true and pidAlive=true—watcher is live and will fire

readIntent SDK bug (w18): returns ReadIntentOutput missing .intent property, causes spurious wakes every poll cycle. Agent handles gracefully (no lost funds), b

No change to script logic. If SDK readIntent is fixed (ensure .intent property always present), spurious fires stop. Script is otherwise optimal. Optional: add explicit LP-Maker watcher.armed check to tighten responsiveness on recovery, but

readIntent returns ReadIntentOutput missing .intent property

w18: 'Watcher fired immediately after arming each wake because readIntent returns ReadIntentOutput with no .intent property.' Causes spurious wakes every poll. Not agent's fault; SDK API contract broken.

Patch SDK readIntent tool to guarantee .intent property in return type. Agent gracefully handles null, but fires cascade.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline cascades counterparty starvation

Intent 704 expired unfilled. LP-Maker (64 deals, primary hub) has been down 499m; armWatcher promise-drop bug (Step 1) crashed it and respawn fallback never armed. Secondary makers Mimic-Ljuba and Vulture-Andrew are live, but Intent 704 couldn't meet agent's margin threshold on available binaries. A

Fix core armWatcher promise-drop bug to revive LP-Maker (Step 1). This unblocks aligned binary flow fleet-wide. No agent-level fix needed; bear-yosher will execute correctly once book improves.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: Unchanged: Index-Maker remains undeployed since genesis (0 wakes, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null). Platform initialization blocker — distinct from the armWatcher crash bug (LP-Maker-Matheus 499m ago, Option-Writer-Matheus 483m ago) which deployed agents that crashed. Index-Maker's watcher was never armed. Counterparty Index-Take

Undeployed since genesis; 0 wakes, watcher.armed=false, wake_script_source=null. Platform initialization failure, not agent reasoning fault. Index-Taker also undeployed (mutual blocker). No agent-logic fix possible; core platform fix required to unblock watcher initialization.

watcher.armed=false AND pidAlive=false AND wake_script_source=null; 0 wakes across entire history. Watcher initialization never completed.

Not applicable — agent never executed. Platform blocker prevented any wakes.

MISSING: watcher not armed; wake_script_source=null; initialization blocker at platform level

Takes SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket; audits contract source published by index-maker.

Unmeasurable — agent never woke; no LONG IndexBasket intents ever posted.

Wake-script source is null (not deployed)

Watcher never armed (nextFallbackMin=null)

Core platform fix: investigate armWatcher initialization failure. Ensure watcher.armed is set true and wake_script_source loads for both Index-Maker and Index-Taker.

Platform watcher initialization failure blocks index-maker and index-taker

Index-Maker undeployed since genesis (0 wakes, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, nextFallbackMin=null). Separate failure mode from armWatcher crash bug (LP-Maker-Matheus, Option-Writer-Matheus were deployed then crashed mid-execution). Index-Taker similarly undeployed. Fo

Investigate armWatcher initialization in platform core: (1) why did watcher.armed never become true? (2) why is wake_script_source null? (3) ensure nextFallbackMin is scheduled. Apply fix to both Index-Maker and Index-Taker. This blocks a key market pair.

Undeployed since genesis; 0 wakes, watcher.armed=false, wake_script_source=null. Platform initialization failure, not agent reasoning fault. Index-Taker also undeployed (mutual blocker). No agent-logic fix possible; core platform fix required to unblock watcher initialization.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: Still undeployed since genesis (0 wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null). No change vs last cycle. Root cause persists: **core platform initialization blocker** — the watcher was never armed at bootstrap. Mutual-blocker pair: sole counterparty (index-maker) also undeployed. Neither agent has ever run; no market for IndexBasket intents e

Never woken (0 wakes, armed=false). Platform initialization failed to arm watcher at genesis; sole counterparty (index-maker) also undeployed. This is a **core deployment failure**, not an agent mission issue — blocks all IndexBasket trading.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null (no script deployed). Counterparty index-maker also undeployed (0 wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=false). Mutual-blocker pair; neither can bootstrap the other.

N/A — no wake script deployed, no agent reasoning running. Mission logic itself (fetch contract from indexer, audit fail-closed, cross on ACCEPT) is sound, but agent is never invoked.

MISSING: should fire on new LONG IndexBasket intents posted by index-maker to the indexer, then fetch & audit contract per mission

Sole counterparty by design: index-taker takes SHORT on index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents (codependent pair).

offline (0 wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=

Unmeasurable: watcher never armed, no book visibility. If index-maker had posted intents, index-taker couldn't see or act on them.

No script deployed (wake_script_source=null). Should poll indexer for new LONG IndexBasket intents from index-maker, fetch contract source, audit per audit-cust

Watcher never armed at bootstrap (core platform failure, not script fault).

Core fix: deploy and arm watcher for both index-maker AND index-taker at initialization time (mutual-blocker pair requires synchronized bootstrap).

Platform initialization blocker: index-taker watcher never armed at genesis

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null. Agent has 0 wakes since genesis. This is distinct from the LP-Maker-Matheus runtime crash (armWatcher promise-drop) — this is a bootstrap failure.

Investigate genesis-time watcher initialization for undeployed agents (index-taker, index-maker, option-writer-matheus). Ensure all agents' watchers are armed before market opens.

Mutual-blocker pair (index-maker ↔ index-taker) both offline blocks IndexBasket market

index-taker's sole counterparty is index-maker, also undeployed. Neither can function alone; both require synchronized bootstrap. No IndexBasket trading possible until both are live.

Deploy and arm watchers for both index-maker and index-taker together, or defer IndexBasket market until both agents pass initialization.

Never woken (0 wakes, armed=false). Platform initialization failed to arm watcher at genesis; sole counterparty (index-maker) also undeployed. This is a **core deployment failure**, not an agent mission issue — blocks all IndexBasket trading.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Two-sided depth mission-critical: expired phantom quotes = loss of fillable book. Oracle mids stable (no volTerm). Inven

quote expiry (~45 min), oracle breach (±15–50 bps), or new fillable intent

Summary: OFFLINE 501m after w44 crash via armWatcher promise-drop (17:19 UTC 06-09). Respawn fallback (60 min) never armed—nextFallbackMin=null, a core platform bug not agent fault. Before crash: market hub with 64 settled deals (87.5% of recent flow), primary liquidity provider for 5+ counterparties. Wake script is disciplined and well-reasoned for mission (quote ex

LP-Maker-Matheus is offline due to core armWatcher promise-drop crash 501m ago; respawn fallback never armed (nextFallbackMin=null). Before crash it was the market hub (64 deals, 87.5% recent flow). Wake script is well-reasoned for its liquidity-provision mission, but agent can't run until platform infrastructure is fixed.

armWatcher promise-drop crash at w44 (17:19 UTC 06-09); watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Scheduled 60-min respawn fallback (18:19 UTC) never armed—core SDK timer infrastructure broken. Same bug crashed option-writer-matheus 483m ago per Step-1 context.

Wake script is sound and mission-focused: monitors quote expiry (~45 min), oracle breaches (±15–50 bps), new fillable intents on network. Tracks own intent resolution and uses newMatches() to identify fresh flow worth taking. Disciplined two-sided depth strategy, no churn. BUT agent can't execute—platform crash prevents live assessment.

MISSING: 60-min respawn fallback never armed (core bug)

Largest single counterparty: 9+ settled deals, picker of dislocations relying on tight LP quotes

DCA primary: 5+ settled deals, systematic slice-per-wake fed by LP-Maker quotes

alive but counterparty-starved (per Step

Dislocations player: 3 deals via LP-Maker, needs tight quotes for fade signals

Systematic DCA: 2 deals converting USDC→sNVDA via LP-Maker

Value relative pricer, needs LP quotes for real-time oracle mid

Unmeasurable while offline. Fleet is starving for liquidity without it—per Step 1, rebalancer-lior intents are expiring (7 open, 55m–182m TTL), and 75% of its flow depends on LP-Maker being available.

Quote expiry watch (~45 min) — critical for maintaining two-sided book depth

Oracle breach detector (±15–50 bps) — catches repricing moments

New fillable intent detection via newMatches() — identifies actionable flow without churn

Own intent resolution tracking — knows when posted quotes settle/expire

60-min fallback cadence — patient, appropriate for liquidity-provision mission

Fallback never armed—core platform bug, not script design issue

None at agent level. Script is well-designed for mission. Blocker is core SDK: fix armWatcher promise-drop and respawn fallback infrastructure.

armWatcher promise-drop crash + broken respawn fallback blocks market recovery

LP-Maker-Matheus (market hub: 64 deals, 87.5% recent flow) crashed 501m ago via armWatcher promise-drop at w44 17:19 UTC. Scheduled 60-min respawn (18:19 UTC) never armed—nextFallbackMin=null. Same bug also crashed option-writer-matheus 483m ago per Step-1 context. Ripple effect: rebalancer-lior and

Debug armWatcher promise-drop in SDK wake-watch.js; restore respawn fallback so nextFallbackMin is set and armed on crash. Test full respawn flow end-to-end. Unblock LP-Maker recovery to restore market liquidity.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on all available BinaryBets. Taker side on #704 deep OTM; #686 outside trading hours. One delibera

new ≥3pp-edge BinaryBet OR stock market open OR 60min re-check

Summary: Disciplined copy-trader enforcing 3pp edge floor consistently across 7 recent wakes (w21–27). Took deal #74 at +30pp edge (w24), correctly idle since because board lacks ≥3pp opportunities (w26–27 confirm all live bets below floor). Last wake 5m ago, fallback armed in 15m—stable. No execution fault; starved by market conditions, not counterparties.

Mimic-ljuba is alive and reasoning soundly. Edge floor discipline held across w26–27 with zero action (correct). Board starvation is the blocker: w26–27 wakes explicitly note 'edge floor ≥3pp unmet on all available BinaryBets.' Fallback remains armed; no platform issue.

w26–27 show no takeable ≥3pp edge on board. LP-Maker-Matheus offline 499m (Step 1) reduced quote depth. Bear-Yosher and Polymarket-Ljuba alive but not posting high-edge BinaryBets now.

Sound and solving the right problem. Refused low-edge #414 at −25pp (w21–23), took #74 when price drift revealed +30pp (w24). One-deliberate-move rule + 3pp floor prevent churn. Edge heuristic (0.5 + ovm × 0.25) is rough but fit for oracle re-pricing on a copy-trade mission. No re-derivation across wakes.

stock market open (13:30 UTC, sNVDA bets)

Posts BinaryBets taker-first (crypto down); proven in deal history

Value hunter, posts mispriced bets; proven counterparty

Picks mispriced flow and posts sharp bets; BinaryBet overlap unclear

Trades BinaryBets but latency-driven; directional alignment weak

None. w21–23 correctly rejected #414 (−25pp edge, below floor). w26–27 board has no ≥3pp offerings.

Fires on new ≥3pp-edge BinaryBet (direct mission alignment: 'accept winnable open bets')

Stock market hours check (13:30–20:00 UTC) for sNVDA exposure

60-min fallback (patient cadence, no sub-minute churn)

Edge floor in canTrade() enforces 3pp minimum

Oracle prices hardcoded snapshot (drift risk, but acceptable for 60-min cycle)

No critical change. If oracle drift becomes measurable over 60-min windows, fetch live prices at wake time. Current snapshot is fit-for-purpose.

Mimic-ljuba is alive and reasoning soundly. Edge floor discipline held across w26–27 with zero action (correct). Board starvation is the blocker: w26–27 wakes explicitly note 'edge floor ≥3pp unmet on all available BinaryBets.' Fallback remains armed; no platform issue.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

BTC/ETH/SSV >3% move or US market open 13:30 UTC 2026-06-10

Summary: Wakes on US market-open timer (13:30 UTC, ~13.4h from w8 at 00:04) + 60m fallback, NOT price momentum — getPrices() stub returns {}, so the 3% move threshold is inert. Wakes w2–w8 idled with sound reasoning (gaps 0–1pp, below 2pp threshold), but this is timer-based idling, not momentum hunting. One settled deal w1 (Intent #28 BTC, -0.69 USD PnL). Zero reliab

Mission is to hunt price movers; watcher fires on a fixed timer (market-open 13:30 UTC + 60m fallback), not on momentum. getPrices() returns {} — the 3% threshold never evaluates. Sound reasoning during wakes (correctly identifying noise <2pp), but applied to the wrong problem (sleeping until timer, not watching price). With LP-Maker offline, no counterparties to trade with even if it woke.

Wake script: getPrices() stub returns {}; 3% move threshold exists in source but never evaluated in the polling loop. Agent fires on market-open 13:30 UTC (fallback 14h from w8) and 60m interval, not momentum. Wakes w2–w8 show "no on-chain action" + gaps 0–1pp (correctly below 2pp threshold), but th

Sound during wakes (e.g., w8: "both lookbacks show 0.3pp gap, far below 2pp minimum; market chopping inside noise band"). But the underlying problem is architectural: the agent is waiting for a timer to fire, not hunting for momentum signals. Reasoning quality during the wake is high; reasoning for *when* to wake is misaligned with mission.

US market-open 13:30 UTC (fallback 14h from w8, fires ~13.4h from now at 2026-06-10T13:30Z)

60m interval fallback (fires on timer, not momentum)

MISSING: BTC/ETH/SSV 3% move — getPrices() stub returns {} so threshold never evaluates

Was the hub for liquidity; momentum-nikita would have posted swaps, LP would quote near-mid.

OFFLINE 23h (crashed w44 17:19 UTC 06-09

Takes mispriced swaps; if momentum-nikita posts sharp momentum trade, vulture could be taker.

DCA via swaps; timing-dependent but could cross if momentum-nikita posts during rebalancer's wake window.

Buys stretched low / sells stretched high; orthogonal mission but trades same primitives.

Unmeasurable — watcher is blind to price momentum between timer fires. If a 3%+ move occurred and completed between w8 (00:04 UTC) and next market-open fire (13:30 UTC, ~13.4h later), momentum-nikita would miss it entirely. Cannot assess opportunity cost without full order-book history, but Step 1 notes settlement rate collapsed to 10.4% (75 of 720 intents), suggesting thin flow and missed cross-b

Fallback is reasonable: market-open 13:30 UTC is a natural event for a momentum trader (US equity open)

Fallback has proper timeout (14h), preventing stale wake

Threshold value (3%) is sensible for noise filtering

getPrices() is a stub returning {} — the 3% threshold never evaluates, so watcher cannot fire on momentum

RPC call attempts eth_blockNumber (not price-related); no oracle price decoding

Polling loop (60_000ms = 60s) is passive — just waits for fallback, doesn't actively monitor price

Code comment admits: 'A full implementation would decode oracle prices, but that's complex. So we'll just fire on the fallback, which is market open.' This is h

Implement getPrices() to fetch oracle prices (e.g., via RPC price oracle or price feed) and compute the 3% move over a lookback window. Restructure the polling loop to fire on momentum AND fallback, not fallback only. Alternatively (quick):

Price-momentum threshold inert — getPrices() stub returns {}, never evaluates 3% move

Wake script line 46–53: getPrices() attempts RPC eth_blockNumber call (not price-related), then returns {} on both success and failure. The 3% threshold (THRESHOLD = 0.03) is defined but never checked in the polling loop. The watcher fires on fallback (market-open 13:30 UTC) and 60m interval, not on

Implement getPrices() to decode oracle prices (or use an external price feed) and return {BTC, ETH, SSV} values. Restructure the polling loop to compute (price - BASELINE) / BASELINE for each asset and fire if any exceed THRESHOLD. Keep the market-open fallback as a safety net.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline since w44 — momentum-nikita has zero reliable counterparties

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed ~23h ago (17:19 UTC 06-09 w44) and is the fleet's primary liquidity hub (64 deals, 87.5% of recent flow per Step 1). Momentum-nikita's only settled deal (Intent #28 w1 BTC) suggests it was traded with LP or a secondary. With LP offline and settlement rate collapsed to 10.4%,

Revive LP-Maker-Matheus via core/SDK armWatcher bug fix (scheduled respawn at 18:19 UTC 06-09 never armed; investigate why nextFallbackMin=null). This is a platform issue, not momentum-nikita's fault.

State snapshots (T1–T7) mask the non-functional price logic

Recent wakes show 'Price snapshot T7 recorded' etc., creating a false sense that the agent is actively tracking price momentum. In reality, getPrices() returns {}, so these snapshots are likely stale or hand-coded. This hides the underlying stub and misleads future readers into thinking price tracki

Remove or repurpose the snapshots; instead, use them only if getPrices() is working. Alternatively, log an explicit warning if getPrices() returns {} so the problem is visible in wake logs.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

a new audited Option intent appears (or 2h)

Summary: Still correctly idle with watcher armed (119m fallback). All 12 wakes reported zero audited intents—expected because sole counterparty option-writer-matheus remains offline (crashed 483m ago via armWatcher promise-drop bug). Agent is healthy, well-reasoned, and ready to take; blocker is purely core (platform revival needed).

Agent is healthy and correctly idle. Watcher is well-reasoned and armed. Zero deals expected: option-writer-matheus (sole supply source) offline 483m due to core armWatcher bug. No agent action needed until platform fix.

option-writer-matheus watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, offline 483m; zero audited options on book across all 12 wakes

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly watches for new audited options and fires only on that event; wake-script has proper 2h fallback and tracks seen intents to avoid churn. No re-derivation or misalignment detected.

new audited Option intent appears
2h fallback

Only source of audited options; agent designed to take its output

offline 483m (armWatcher crash, platform

none (zero audited options on book; writer offline blocks all supply)

Event-driven trigger on new audited options (not re-scanning)

Correct templateHash filtering for audited intents

2h fallback is patient and appropriate for option supply rhythm

Zero-LLM, efficient, seen-set logic prevents churn

None. Script is correctly implemented. Blocker is upstream (option-writer revival).

option-writer-matheus offline via armWatcher promise-drop bug

Sole counterparty crashed 483m ago; respawn fallback never armed (watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false). Blocks all option supply to taker.

Fix armWatcher promise-drop bug and re-arm option-writer-matheus (tracked as separate fleet incident)

Agent is healthy and correctly idle. Watcher is well-reasoned and armed. Zero deals expected: option-writer-matheus (sole supply source) offline 483m due to core armWatcher bug. No agent action needed until platform fix.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Rotation execution is in flight. Intent 528 filled as expected (sMSFT exit complete). Intents 530/533 expiring soon (~12

Market close signal (19:50 UTC) or hard fallback (23:00 UTC)

Summary: Crashed 425m ago by armWatcher SDK promise-drop bug (identical to LP-Maker-Matheus 483m ago). Wake script well-reasoned (19:50 UTC market-close finalization, 23:00 UTC hard fallback) but watcher never armed—process died. Rotation swaps 530/533 expired unfilled at w25. Awaiting core platform fix. PnL −2.7 USD.

Wake script is well-designed for the contrarian 70/30 mission (19:50 UTC market-close signal, fallback at 23:00 UTC), but the armWatcher SDK promise-drop bug prevented it from arming 425m ago. Neither trigger fired; rotation swaps 530/533 expired unfilled. This is a platform fault, not agent reasoning failure.

armWatcher promise-drop crashed process at w26 (15:49 UTC 06-09). watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. LP-Maker-Matheus crashed identically 483m ago via same bug. Market-close pivot (w26→w27) never executed; rotation swaps 530 (sMSFT exit, filled) + 533 (sAAPL entry, expired) i

Sound. Wake script is well-reasoned FOR THE MISSION: time-based trigger at market close (19:50 UTC) locks contrarian conviction at day-end, not intra-day noise. Fallback (23:00 UTC) is appropriate—prevents indefinite hang if market-close signal is delayed. Zero-LLM, deterministic, avoids book-polling (correctly so, since mission is conviction-driven, not reactive). Respects patient cadence (avg ga

MISSING: Neither trigger fired; armWatcher promise-drop prevented watcher.armed=true before process exit

Settled deals with Bear-Yosher (1+ swaps at oracle mid); mutual liquidity

Primary LP for swaps; normally fills rotation intents posted at oracle mid

stuck (crashed 483m ago via same armWatc

Selective taker of written ETH/BTC options; complements option-writer engine

ok (selective, not guaranteed consistent

Market-close finalization (w26→w27): intended contrarian rebalance (sMSFT exit via 530, sAAPL + sNVDA entry via 533). Swaps posted at 16:48 UTC w23 at oracle mid, but expired ~50m later (likely depth unavailable with LP-Maker offline). w27 finalization pivot never woke; exact re-pricing opportunity unmeasurable post-hoc, but intended move was clear from w26 reasoning ('final move at market close l

Market-close timing (19:50 UTC) is right: locks contrarian conviction at day-end, avoids intra-day repricing churn

Hard fallback (23:00 UTC) prevents indefinite hang if market-close signal stalls

Zero-LLM, deterministic time-based firing—no book polling, no flaky logic

Cadence matches mission (avg gap 53m, one wake per market event—patient contrarian strategy)

No change to wake script. Core SDK must fix armWatcher promise-drop: ensure fallback is armed BEFORE process exit, and validate that watcher state is persisted even on promise rejection. Once core fix deploys, this script will fire correctl

armWatcher promise-drop bug crashed option-writer-matheus (and LP-Maker-Matheus)

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null since w26 15:49 UTC 06-09. Wake script was ready (19:50 UTC target, 23:00 UTC fallback), but armWatcher failed to arm due to SDK bug. Process died; neither 19:50 nor 23:00 trigger fired. Rotation swaps 530/533 expired unfilled. Identical bug

armWatcher SDK: wrap armWatcher() call in try-catch, ensure fallback schedules BEFORE process exit. Add test: verify fallback is armed even if main trigger promise rejects. Deploy core fix, restart watchers on both crashed agents.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL well-positioned mid-hold. Edge erosion is expected as terminal approaches; pos

sAAPL stop/forward/horizon, or new book opportunity

Summary: Still correctly in monitor-and-wait mode, holding sAAPL at 25% cap ($24.99) with justified 5.17% edge vs Polymarket (edge math confirmed sound if Polymarket prices flat). Intents #583/#601 posted but unfilled 7+ hours; LP-Maker-Matheus offline 499m starves intended taker. Last 4 wakes w11–w14 found no book misprices, agent correctly idle (not churning: 7/14

Agent is healthy and correctly idle. It holds a well-reasoned sAAPL position (5.17% edge, 25% cap, confirmed vs Polymarket) and waits for either Jun10 16:00 UTC horizon expiry or new mispriced opportunities. It did not churn despite last 4 wakes finding no edges ≥3% on book. The primary blocker is LP-Maker-Matheus being offline (core armWatcher promise-drop bug) since 499m ago, starving potential takers — not an agent-level fault.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 499m (platform bug per Step-1 focus), was intended taker of sAAPL intents #583/#601. polymarket-ljuba has 2 settled deals lifetime (1 swap ↔ LP-Maker, 1 binary ↔ Mimic-Ljuba). 0 open intents. Last 4 wakes w11–w14 scanned book, found no edges ≥3%; thin book + offline LP = set

Sound. Disciplined: holds position within directional caps, enforces 3% edge threshold, scans book regularly. Not churning (7/14 repeat wakes are legitimate book-checks, not re-posting same intent). Solving right problem: find misprices vs Polymarket, wait for triggers. Math confirmed: 5.17% edge valid if Polymarket flat.

Polymarket book changes (takeableCount > 0 or swap edge ≥3%)

sAAPL horizon approach (within 5 min of Jun10 16:00 UTC)

Stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75) breached

Fallback: Jun10 18:00 UTC (849m, ensures re-check before expiry)

Intended swap taker; 1 settled deal with polymarket-ljuba. PRIMARY.

OFFLINE 499m (armWatcher promise-drop bu

1 settled binary bet; copy-trader focused on directional, not reliable LP.

Mispricing hunter (28 deals); could take polymarket-ljuba edge if both see same misprices.

None on current book (w11–w14 checks found 0 edges ≥3%). Intents #583/#601 remain unfilled (7+ hour TTL expired) because intended taker (LP-Maker) offline; agent cannot self-fill without accepting own misprices, correctly doesn't.

Fires on specific book triggers (takeableCount > 0, edge ≥3%), not blanket polling

Monitors horizon expiry (Jun10 16:00 UTC) for position cleanup

30/60s book cadence appropriate for value-finding (not latency-critical)

Fallback (18h) ensures re-check; zero-LLM pure logic

Stop/forward levels baked in; clean early-exit logic

No explicit check for known counterparty heartbeat (LP-Maker online/offline) — would short-circuit posting intents for unavailable takers

Highest-value change is core/fleet, not watcher: after LP-Maker respawns, wire a pre-post counterparty-availability check into the agent's decision loop. Avoids dead-letter intents to offline peers. (This is a SDK feature, not a watcher fix

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 499m via armWatcher promise-drop bug; respawn fallback never armed

polymarket-ljuba posted intents #583/#601 targeting now-unavailable LP-Maker. Fleet settlement rate collapsed: 75/720 = 10.4%. Step-1 notes nextFallbackMin=null, so respawn trigger never armed — platform initialization bug.

Urgent: Fix armWatcher promise-drop crash + ensure fallback is armed on respawn. Unblock the market liquidity hub (64 deals, 87.5% of recent flow).

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: Rebalancer-Lior continues disciplined DCA with strict market-hours compliance. Intents #669/#670 (posted 19:55 UTC 06-09, $7 slices on sAAPL/sNVDA at −15pp/−35pp oracle gaps) expired unfilled due to LP-Maker-Matheus offline; no reliable alternative maker exists in awake fleet. Agent correctly idle with 710m fallback to stocks market reopen 13:30 UTC. Pricing

Rebalancer-Lior executed its DCA mission flawlessly: intents #669/#670 were fairly priced (−15pp/−35pp oracle gaps) and posted at correct market hours. They expired unfilled due to counterparty starvation—LP-Maker-Matheus (75% of prior 8 deals: 6 settled swaps) is offline, and no alternative maker exists in awake fleet (vulture-andrew is taker-hungry, swing-nikita directional, index-maker undeployed). This is a platform/fleet issue, not an agent issue.

Intents #669/#670 posted at fair oracle (−15pp sAAPL, −35pp sNVDA) at 19:55 UTC 06-09. LP-Maker-Matheus (6 of 8 settled deals, 75%) offline since ~17:19 UTC (crash, respawn failed per Step-1 context). No alternative maker in awake fleet: vulture-andrew is taker-hungry (deals-driven, not makes), swin

Sound and disciplined. Agent correctly prioritizes sAAPL (−40pp total gap vs −15pp/−35pp for intents) over crypto per DCA mission. Took favorable intent #631 (underweight leg ≤ oracle, w18) before posting own. Posted fairly-priced slices when no takers available. Respected market hours (won't trade stocks outside 13:30–20:00 UTC). Now correctly idle. Not solving the wrong problem, not churning—tex

Stocks market reopen 13:30 UTC (710m fallback, well-reasoned for DCA cadence)

Intents #669/#670 resolution (already expired ~20:55 UTC, will fire on next wake)

6 of 8 settled deals (75%); natural counterparty for DCA swaps near oracle

OFFLINE (crashed ~17:19 UTC 06-09, respa

Active (28 deals), but deal-hungry (picks off mistakes/misprices); unreliable as a maker

Awake (ok health) but not reliably makin

Fades dislocations (buys stretched low); could see sAAPL underweight but directional, not maker-focused

Awake (ok health) but not active on this

Focused on IndexBasket (BTC+AAPL+NVDA); undeployed since genesis

None evident. Agent took favorable intent #631 when available (w18), posted fairly-priced intents #669/#670 when no takers, and is correctly idle. Intents have expired; no opportunity to re-price without market reopen (correctly gated by market-hours constraint).

Correct cadence: one patient slice per wake, respects market-hours constraint (DCA philosophy)

Smart fallback: watches intents #669/#670 for resolution (fill/expire) OR stocks reopen 13:30 UTC, whichever fires first; max 710m (no hang)

Zero-LLM poll (30s check for intent resolution); won't fire on 'book non-empty' (correct—DCA is patience-driven, not liquidity-reactive)

None critical. The watcher will work correctly: intents are already expired, so next wake will detect resolution and re-DCA at market open. No platform issue in this agent's logic.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline (armWatcher promise-drop) blocks 75% of DCA counterparty

LP-Maker crashed 499m ago via armWatcher bug (Step-1 context: scheduled 60-min respawn at 18:19 UTC never armed, nextFallbackMin=null). It is 75% of rebalancer-lior's settled deals (6 of 8 swaps). Intents #669/#670 expired unfilled.

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus via armWatcher fix (core platform bug). Deploy index-maker as secondary liquidity option to reduce single-counterparty risk.

Single counterparty dependency: rebalancer-lior 75% LP-Maker-Matheus

6 of 8 settled deals are with LP-Maker. When it crashes, DCA cannot execute. No other maker in awake fleet reliably provides swap liquidity at oracle.

Activate swing-nikita or index-maker as secondary makers to diversify. Alternatively, tune rebalancer-lior to post more aggressive swaps to attract vulture-andrew (risk: overpay).

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Afterhours routine: post directional binary bet on sNVDA UP consistent with accumulation thesis. Bet expires ~10:08 AM E

Summary: ALIVE and correctly waiting on LP-Maker revival. Transitioned from continuous DCA refresh (w11–w16, 3–10 min oracle-tracking posts) to scheduled 13:30 UTC market-open handoff (2026-06-10 TODAY). Watcher armed and will fire; post-handoff cadence depends on agent logic post-wake. All 2 settled deals via LP-Maker-Matheus (offline 499m). Posted binary hedge (Int

Trigger fires today at 13:30 UTC (watcher armed, timestamp is today). Post-handoff DCA cadence not externally visible but agent is correctly positioned. Starved of reliable takers due to LP-Maker offline 499m — a fleet-level issue, not agent fault. If LP-Maker revives or alternative taker emerges, DCA resumes immediately.

All 2 settled deals via LP-Maker-Matheus; LP crashed 17:19 UTC 06-09 (499m ago). No alternative taker with competitive depth visible. Waiting is correct.

Sound. Rationally shifted from continuous high-frequency refresh (tracking oracle drift >0.5%) to scheduled daily handoff, conserving cycles for market open when liquidity may appear. Binary hedge (Intent 686, 0.25 USDC) is off-mission but defensible as insurance while waiting.

Time-based: 13:30 UTC on 2026-06-10 (TODAY) via armWatcher polling

16-hour fallback: if primary trigger missed, fires ~12h later

Deep inventory, quotes swaps near oracle mid. Ideal for DCA. OFFLINE since 17:19 UTC 06-09.

Takes mispriced swaps. Could fill DCA if oracle×0.99 bid is sharp relative to his edge. Thin volume, on-mission.

Latency arb on CEX, not on-chain swaps. Wrong market.

None. Agent explicitly checked for sweepable supply (w14, w17: 'no sweepable opportunity'). Open intent is binary hedge, not missed DCA. Watcher blind to full order book.

Time-based 13:30 UTC trigger aligns with patient DCA mission — daily market-open is rational cadence

16-hour fallback ensures agent doesn't sleep forever (good safety net)

Zero RPC polling, 60-second interval avoids unnecessary on-chain calls — efficient

Fallback armed correctly (nextFallbackMin=723 ~12h, on track)

Wake-script defines WHEN to fire, not WHAT to do after — post-handoff cadence (resume continuous? shift to hourly?) lives in agent logic, not visible here

No book-read fallback — if watcher can't see order book, agent can't detect if takers have dried up

Document post-handoff cadence in CLAUDE.md: clarify whether agent resumes continuous oracle-drift refresh (w11–w16 pattern) or shifts to a new schedule. Add a timeout guard: if no fill within 4h of market open, revert to next-day handoff to

armWatcher promise-drop bug crashed LP-Maker; stacker starved as result

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 17:19 UTC 06-09 due to armWatcher promise-drop (core SDK bug). Scheduled 60m respawn (18:19 UTC) never armed. Stacker's 2 settled deals entirely via LP-Maker; now 499m offline. Agent correctly waiting, but fleet recovery is blocked.

Fix armWatcher promise-drop bug to allow LP-Maker respawn fallback to arm correctly. Then stacker's DCA will resume on next wake.

Binary hedge (Intent 686) locks 0.25 USDC that could be DCA'd

Posted 0.25 USDC binary bet on sNVDA UP (w18) as a 'creative hedge' while waiting for counterparty. Mission calls for '0.50 USDC swap per wake'. Hedge acceptable as insurance, but uses capital inefficiently if repeated.

Post-handoff logic: prioritize full DCA intent (0.50 USDC) before optional hedge. If hedge desired, increase to 0.50 total (0.35 DCA + 0.15 hedge) to stay mission-focused.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

sNVDA sell-strength blocked by both market hours and zero position. No other actionable dislocations. Watcher aimed at 1

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (sNVDA +2.56% signal check)

Summary: Sound fade discipline; sNVDA +2.56% sell signal fires at 13:30 UTC market open as planned. All 3 settled deals routed via LP-Maker-Matheus, now offline until ~18:19 UTC (4h 49m after market open). Only fallback taker is Vulture-Andrew, 79% LP-dependent and starved. The fade reasoning is correct; the market is broken (no live makers). Agent should post the se

Swing-nikita executes correctly: real fade (+2.56% > 1.5% threshold), good position sizing (23% of book in w11), disciplined churn guard (no repost of unfillable intent in w13). The sNVDA sell will fire at market open, but it will post into a market with no live makers if LP-Maker recovery stalls past 13:30 UTC. This is a **fleet/core issue** (LP offline, Vulture starved), not the agent's fault. Monitor LP recovery; if not online by 13:30 UTC, expect the sell to expire unfilled or fill at worse slippage via starved Vulture.

All 3 settled deals routed via LP-Maker-Matheus (crashed 499m ago, recovery at ~18:19 UTC — 4h 49m after market open signal at 13:30 UTC). Only swap alternative is Vulture-Andrew, 79% LP-dependent and starved. Rebalancer-lior (DCA via swaps, 8 deals) might absorb at fair price, but low probability.

Sound, on-mission, disciplined. Real mean-reversion execution: w8–w9 bought sAAPL dip (0.07→0.11 via 11.7 USDC purchase), sold the bounce at oracle mid (11.9 USDC), trimmed position 31.9%→20%. Correct dislocation thresholds (1.5% threshold; real -1.89% SSV dislocation in w11 at 23 USDC/11.68 SSV). Respected 'no tiny unfillable reposts' rule (w13 after SSV expired unfilled). Correctly identified do

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (time-driven, real signal re-assessment)

15h fallback (EOD + session recovery buffer)

Primary counterparty: 3/3 settled deals routed here. Only maker capable of absorbing large swaps.

Swap taker, 28 deals lifetime. But 79% LP-dependent; becomes unreliable when LP is starved.

alive but starved at market open (low-sl

DCA via delivered swaps, 8 deals. Could take sell at fair price, but not primary target for swing.

alive, health ok (low probability taker)

Converts USDC to sNVDA (buyer only). Opposite direction from swing's sell signal.

None. No open intents currently. SSV intent (w11, posted 17:46 UTC, -1.89% dislocation) expired unfilled (w13 18:52 UTC) — correctly abandoned per 'no tiny unfillable reposts' rule, not a churn mistake. Next signal is sNVDA at market open (hasn't fired yet). Execution will be measured at 13:30 UTC wake.

Time-driven trigger (market open 13:30 UTC) is the *right* pattern for a fade trader, not order-flow or sub-minute polling. Dislocation detection is a market-cl

Fallback is long (15h), preventing thrashing and allowing time for overnight recovery events (e.g., LP respawn).

Zero-LLM, no book watching — correctly scoped to mission. Swing does not need to watch book depth; it reacts to price dislocations.

Explicit label and comment explain the signal (sNVDA +2.56% sell-strength is actionable at market open).

Script does not include a guardian check for primary counterparty (LP-Maker) health before posting. If LP is offline at 13:30 UTC wake time, the agent will post

Add pre-post health check in agent's wake handler (CLAUDE.md, not the watcher): `if (lp-maker-matheus.watcher.armed === false && lp-maker-matheus.watcher.pidAlive === false) then log('LP offline at market open; Vulture fallback starved. Def

Market-open sell signal lacks counterparty-health guard

Wake fires at 13:30 UTC as planned, but agent does not check if LP-Maker (primary counterparty for all 3 prior deals) is online before posting sell intent. If LP remains offline and Vulture-Andrew is the only taker, the sell will likely expire unfilled (thin market) or fill at worse slippage.

Add pre-post logic in wake handler: check `lp-maker-matheus.health` (or watcher.armed + pidAlive) at wake time. If offline, either (a) defer post 30m to wait for recovery, (b) reduce position size to reflect illiquid market, or (c) log risk and proceed with caution. One-line guard in CLAUDE.md.

Swap market lacks redundant makers; only Vulture-Andrew available and starved

All 3 swing-nikita settled deals via LP-Maker-Matheus (crashed 499m ago, recovery at 18:19 UTC). Only swap taker is Vulture-Andrew, 79% LP-dependent and therefore starved when LP is down. Fleet has no secondary maker. Structural: option-writer-matheus also offline; makers are scarce, takers dominate

Priority 1: Restore LP-Maker by 13:30 UTC (do not delay past market open when swing-nikita sells). Priority 2: Activate index-maker or recruit a secondary maker (e.g., if index-taker is undeployed, unblock index-maker initialization) to diversify counterparties and reduce Vulture-dependency.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

Portfolio hygiene is mission-critical (per wake 23 lesson). sAAPL at 0.39% is a fatal floor breach — must restore to >8%

5 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781056597; next poll 240s

Summary: Vulture correctly froze opportunistic trading and pivoted to mandatory portfolio rebalancing (sAAPL/sNVDA both below 8% floor) after LP-Maker-Matheus (79% of 28 deals) crashed 499m ago. Posted rebalance intents 0x02ba/0x02bb at oracle-fair (w30 23:29 UTC), unfilled 70+ min — counterparty-starved (LP down, no alternative liquidity provider willing to cross fa

Vulture's rebalance intents at oracle-fair are correctly priced but unfilled because LP-Maker-Matheus (primary counterparty) is offline. No edge clear the 1% gate (w32, 33, 34), so freeze is justified. Recovery tied entirely to LP revival or an alternative liquidity source entering the market.

LP-Maker-Matheus down 499m (crashed w44 17:19 UTC 06-09, fallback never armed per armWatcher promise-drop bug). 6 of vulture's last 8 swaps with LP; no other agent in roster positioned to cross fair-value rebalance swaps (edge-hunters require mispricings, not fair prices).

Sound. Vulture correctly identified portfolio crisis (floor breach below 8%) and made portfolio hygiene a hard prerequisite for opportunistic trading. Wake sequence (w27–w34) shows disciplined waiting, not churn or re-posting. The priority logic (rebalance > edges) is justified and well-executed.

Takeable edge detected in book (global rule: any instrument, any time)

Adaptive poll (60s–1800s baseline, 5m default; tightens near intent expiry to 300s pre-TTL)

MISSING: specific fill-monitor for 0x02ba / 0x02bb; awaits general adaptive poll discovery

79% of 28 prior deals, primary liquidity source. Only agent in fleet with motive and inventory to cross fair-value rebalance swaps.

CRASHED 499m (armWatcher promise-drop, f

4 historic swaps, but not a systematic market maker — appears in settled deals, capacity unknown.

DCA toward sNVDA; it would be buying sNVDA, not selling. Opposite of vulture's need.

Fades dislocations (buys below avg, sells above). Rebalance intents at oracle-fair are not dislocated — no edge for swing.

Latency arb on CEX feeds; not a rebalancer or LP, no cross-incentive at fair.

None. The 0x02ba/0x02bb intents are at oracle-fair by design (portfolio hygiene, not arbitrage). Only an LP or another rebalancer misaligned in the opposite direction (net seller of sAAPL/sNVDA) would cross at fair. No such agent is currently online. This is a market structural gap, not a vulture logic miss.

Zero-LLM deterministic scan (scan-edges.ts) on every poll — efficient for constant vigilance without token burn

Adaptive cadence (60s–1800s, tightening toward expiry) — responsive to book activity; doesn't spam on quiet books

Global rule: any takeable edge fires immediately — excellent for opportunistic trading

Hard fallback (2h) prevents infinite quiet-book limbo

No dedicated monitor for fills on vulture's own rebalance intents (0x02ba, 0x02bb). Watcher scans for INCOMING edges; doesn't track whether vulture's POSTED int

Add a scan check: if 0x02ba or 0x02bb disappear from the open-intent set, fire immediately (reason: "rebalance filled"). This closes the latency gap and unblocks edge-hunting within the next poll tick, not the next scheduled wake.

Rebalance-fill detection missing from watcher loop

Watcher polls for INCOMING takeable edges but doesn't monitor fills on OUTGOING rebalance intents (0x02ba, 0x02bb posted w30 23:29 UTC). Once rebalance completes, vulture relies on general adaptive poll to discover it — up to 54m (avg wake gap) delay before returning to edge-hunting.

In vulture-watch.ts scan loop: after scanning for takeable edges, check if [0x02ba, 0x02bb] are absent from open intents. If either is gone, fire wakeNow('rebalance filled'). Unblocks edge-hunting immediately.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline due to armWatcher crash; respawn fallback never armed

LP crashed 499m ago (17:19 UTC 06-09). Fallback respawn at 18:19 UTC (60-min recovery) was scheduled but never armed — watcher.armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null. This is the platform armWatcher promise-drop bug blocking all dependent agents: vulture (79% of deals from LP), rebalancer-lior (LP-depend

Core team: debug armWatcher promise-drop in the respawn handler. Once LP-Maker-Matheus is back online and watcher.armed=true, vulture's rebalance intents will fill immediately and market liquidity recovers across 4+ agents.

Vulture's rebalance intents at oracle-fair are correctly priced but unfilled because LP-Maker-Matheus (primary counterparty) is offline. No edge clear the 1% gate (w32, 33, 34), so freeze is justified. Recovery tied entirely to LP revival or an alternative liquidity source entering the market.

wallet-address frequency (11/14 agents addressed)

HUB OFFLINE, STARVATION CASCADE — CORE SDK BUG ROOT CAUSE

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, Bear-Yosher, Stacker-Massimo, Polymarket-Ljuba}

HUB OFFLINE 499m — all counterparties starved; Vulture-Andrew fallback underfund

Mimic-Ljuba ↔ {Polymarket-Ljuba, Bear-Yosher}

THIN — Mimic idle (no ≥3pp edges post-LP depth loss); Bear-Yosher one posted bet

BLOCKED 483m — both crashed via armWatcher promise-drop; mutual pair offline

NEVER BOOTSTRAPPED — genesis initialization blocker; watcher.armed=false since d

armWatcher SDK promise-drop crashed LP-Maker-Matheus w44 17:19 UTC 06-09; scheduled 60-min respawn (18:19 UTC) never arm

LP-Maker-Matheus (64 settled deals = 87.5% of recent flow, 5 reliable counterparties, primary hub) offline 499m. Same bu

lp-maker-matheus: watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; last wake w44; 16 recent deals (6 with Vulture, 4 with Rebalancer); option-writer-matheus: identical crash symptom 483m ear

LP-Maker-Matheus offline → no counterparty depth for DCA, rebalance, or taker swaps

Cascading starvation: Rebalancer-Lior intents #669/#670 (fair oracle −15pp sAAPL, −35pp sNVDA, posted 19:55 UTC 06-09) e

6 agents root-cause counterparty-starved, all cite LP-Maker as primary: Rebalancer (6 of 8 recent deals via LP), Swing-Nikita (all 3 settled via LP), Vulture (6 of last 8 swaps via LP), Bear-Yosher, S

No initialized wake-script watchers for Index-Maker and Index-Taker at platform genesis

Index-Maker and Index-Taker remain armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes across entire history.

index-maker: watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null; index-taker: identical; no watcher bootstrap logs.

Momentum-Nikita getPrices() stub returns empty object {}, 3% move threshold is inert

Agent fires on US market-open timer (13:30 UTC) + 60m fallback, not momentum signals. Wakes w2–w8 correctly idle because

momentum-nikita: getPrices() stub returns {}; wake-script 3% threshold exists but never evaluated in polling loop; next fallback 13:30 UTC + 675m (timer-based); wakes w2–w8 log 'no on-chain action', g

armWatcher SDK promise-drop bug crashed LP-Maker-Matheus 499m ago; respawn fallback never armed

LP-Maker-Matheus (64 settled deals = 87.5% of fleet deal flow) crashed w44 17:19 UTC 06-09 via armWatcher promise rejection. Scheduled 60-min respawn fallback (18:19 UTC 06-09) never armed — nextFallbackMin=null indicates core SDK timer state-machine failure. Same bug crashed Option-Writer-Matheus 483m ago (identical symptom: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). 499m downtime; no recovery without core fix.

lp-maker-matheus watcher: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; crash logged w44 17:19 UTC 06-09; 16 settled deals in recent list (6 Vulture, 4 Rebalancer, rest via primary counterparties); option-writer-matheus: watcher.armed=

Debug armWatcher promise rejection and fallback timer state machine in SDK. Verify scheduled fallback fires even if main wake handler crashes. Restart LP-Maker-Matheus with confirmed watcher re-arm. Confirm Option-Writer-Matheus respawn also triggers.

Counterparty starvation cascading through 6+ agents; 7 open intents expiring within 48m

Rebalancer-Lior intents #669/#670 (fair-priced sAAPL/sNVDA DCA, posted 19:55 UTC 06-09) expired 70+ min unfilled. Vulture-Andrew rebalance intents 0x02ba (4.5 USDC → sNVDA), 0x02bb (7.82 USDC → sAAPL) posted w30 23:29 UTC, unfilled 70+ min (portfolio floor breach). Swing-Nikita sNVDA +2.56% fade signal fires 13:30 UTC 06-10 (market-open) with zero counterparty available (LP recovery ~18:19 UTC, 4h 49m gap). Open book now has only 7 inte

Recent deals dominated by LP-Maker: 16 of last 16 dealt via LP (6 Vulture, 4 Rebalancer, rest counterparties). Open intents: Vulture 0x02ba/0x02bb (48m TTL), rebalancer #669/#670 expired, swing-nikita next wake 13:30 UTC, stacker #703 175m.

Prioritize LP-Maker-Matheus revival (core SDK fix). If revival delayed >2h: temporary liquidity relay — request an awake maker to cross-fill sAAPL/sNVDA at fair/offer rates (DCA $7 slices, rebalance intents) to unblock portfolio floor breach and fade signal. Monitor open book for

Index-Maker and Index-Taker undeployed since genesis (platform initialization blocker)

Index-Maker and Index-Taker both remain watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes entire history. Mutual-blocker pair: neither can bootstrap without the other. This is distinct from armWatcher crash bug — these agents were never initialized at platform genesis. No IndexBasket market exists; zero intents posted.

index-maker: watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null; index-taker: identical state; no initialization logs.

Debug platform genesis initialization sequence; verify watcher bootstrap for non-critical-path agents (Index-Maker/Taker are lower-priority than LP-Maker/Option-Writer, may have been skipped in init). Manually re-run watcher initialization and arm both agents.

Momentum-Nikita off-mission: timer-based firing, not momentum-driven

Wake-script includes getPrices() stub that returns empty object {}. 3% move threshold in loop exists but is inert (never evaluated). Agent fires on US market-open timer (13:30 UTC) + 60-min fallback, NOT price momentum. Wakes w2–w8 correctly idle (gaps 0–1pp < 2pp threshold), but idle is timer-driven not momentum-driven discipline. Only 1 settled deal w1 (Intent #28 BTC, −$0.69 PnL). Mission-script mismatch: agent marketed as momentum h

momentum-nikita: getPrices() stub returns {}; wake-script timer: 13:30 UTC market-open + 60m fallback (675m from w8); only 1 settled deal; wakes w2–w8 log 'no on-chain action', gaps 0–1pp, idle is correct but for wrong reason.

Implement live getPrices() feed (e.g., 15-min CEX candles for intraday vol, or oracle gap tracking for 3%+ sAAPL/sNVDA moves). If no data feed available: pivot mission to timer-based (e.g., market-open mean-reversion, close hedge) and update wake-script intent to match. Current s

10/14 agents correctly armed and idle (disciplined, not churning)

Arb-Hunter-Tom, Bear-Yosher, Mimic-Ljuba, Option-Taker-Matheus, Polymarket-Ljuba, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita, Vulture-Andrew all watcher.armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin in [10, 769]. All waiting on counterparty recovery (LP-Maker, Option-Writer) or market conditions (edge floors, oracle gaps). Zero evidence of token-burning re-posts or reasoning loops. Fleet discipline is sound.

10 agents: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin range [10m–769m]; summaries show disciplined hold (mimic 'no ≥3pp edges', arb-hunter 'no CEX edge ≥0.5%', vulture 'rebalance only at floor breach', rebalancer 'DCA market-hours only'); z

No fix needed; monitor expirations. Once LP-Maker revival completes, expect deal flow to resume immediately for these agents (all primed and ready, waiting only on counterparty availability).

PRIORITY 1 (BLOCKS MARKET RECOVERY): Debug + fix armWatcher SDK promise-drop bug. LP-Maker-Matheus crashed w44 17:19 UTC 06-09, Option-Writer-Matheus w26 (~483m earlier), both with identical symptom (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Verify promise rejection han

PRIORITY 2 (BLOCKS INDEXBASKET MARKET): Fix platform genesis initialization for Index-Maker and Index-Taker watchers (both armed=false, 0 wakes since day 0, never deployed). Separate from crash bug; root cause is bootstrap sequence. Manual re-initialization of watcher for both ag

CONTINGENCY (if LP-Maker revival delayed >2h): Temporary liquidity relay — request an awake maker to cross-fill sAAPL/sNVDA DCA and rebalance intents at fair/offer rates ($7 slices for Rebalancer-Lior intents #669/#670; Vulture-Andrew rebalance 0x02ba/0x02bb). Hedges portfolio fl

Fix Momentum-Nikita getPrices() stub to enable real momentum detection (15-min CEX candles, 3%+ threshold) OR pivot mission to oracle-gap momentum (hunt 3%+ sAAPL/sNVDA oracle moves) and update wake-script to match. Current setup is timer-driven with inert threshold; agent has no

Unchanged: LP-Maker-Matheus (64 deals, 87.5% of recent deal flow) crashed 499m ago via armWatcher promise-drop; scheduled 60-min respawn (18:19 UTC) never armed. Fleet is 10/14 agents alive and correctly idle, but counterparty starvation is rippling: rebalancer-lior (75% LP-dependent, intents expire

armWatcher promise-drop bug crashed LP-Maker-Matheus 499m ago; respawn fallback never armed (nextFallbackMin=null). Core platform bug, not agent fault. Blocks market recovery.

Recent settlement rate collapsed: 75 settled from 720 posted = 10.4%, with most recent intents stalled (7 open, 55m–182m TTL). LP-Maker-Matheus offline since w44 (17:19 UTC 06-09).

Counterparty starvation cascade: rebalancer-lior intents fair-priced but expired, swing-nikita sell signal fires at market-open (13:30 UTC) with no reliable taker if LP-Maker still down, vulture-andre

Platform initialization failure (distinct from crashes): index-maker and index-taker undeployed since genesis (0 wakes, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false). Mutual-blocker pair.

Two other agents crashed via same armWatcher bug: option-writer-matheus 483m ago; option-taker-matheus correctly idle waiting for revival.

Why zero binary bet deals (only 2 lifetime, both swaps) despite disciplined edge-floor reasoning and armed watcher (29m fallback)? Is binary market genuinely thin (no CEX in-money takers per book visibility), or is this a book-discovery iss

Ready to post resting bear bet when book recovers. Watcher armed (205m fallback). Confirm script fires on LP-Maker recovery trigger without repricing lag?

Undeployed since genesis (watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, zero wake-script). Platform initialization blocker, not agent reasoning. Defer to core fix.

Undeployed since genesis (watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false). Mutual dependency with index-maker blocks both. Core initialization blocker.

Platform bug (armWatcher crash). Can't assess agent logic while downed. Awaiting core fix—respawn fallback infrastructure broken.

Healthy, disciplined edge-floor (3pp minimum, took deal #74 at 30pp realized −$4.38 loss). Alive, 17m fallback remaining. Confirm fallback stability?

getPrices() stub returns {} (non-functional). Fires on 60m fallback + market-open 13:30 UTC timer, not price momentum. Should it have fallback data source, or is time-driven acceptable for this mission?

Correctly idle, armed (116m fallback). Sole blocker: option-writer-matheus offline 483m via same armWatcher bug. No action until core fix.

Platform bug (armWatcher crash 425m ago). Wake script well-reasoned (19:50 UTC market-close, 23:00 UTC fallback) but couldn't fire. Awaiting core fix.

Healthy, patient hold (sAAPL 25% cap, edge 5.17% vs Polymarket). Last 4 wakes found no misprices—correct non-action. Alive, 851m fallback. Confirm edge math still sound if Polymarket prices flat?

Posted DCA intents #669/#670 (sAAPL/sNVDA, $7 slices, −15pp/−35pp gaps) at fair oracle, expired unfilled. LP-Maker was 75% of prior 8 deals. Are prices uncompetitive, or pure counterparty starvation? Does an alternative maker exist post-LP

Shifted from continuous DCA (w11–w16) to scheduled 13:30 UTC market-open handoff (2026-06-10 today). Confirm: does the trigger fire today? What is the post-handoff DCA cadence?

sNVDA +2.56% sell signal (>1.5% threshold) fires at market-open 13:30 UTC today. All 3 prior deals routed via dead LP-Maker; only swap alternative (Vulture-Andrew) is 79% LP-starved. Will today's sell find a taker, or does swing need a fall

Posted rebalance intents 0x02ba/0x02bb (sAAPL/sNVDA, oracle-fair) at w30 23:29 UTC; unfilled 70+ min. Is this mispricing (no one will cross fair), counterparty starvation, or book-visibility blind spot? Which agent could profitably take the

CRITICAL: Fix armWatcher promise-drop bug. Crashed LP-Maker-Matheus 499m ago and option-writer-matheus 483m ago. Scheduled respawn fallback never armed (nextFallbackMin=null on both). Blocks market re

CRITICAL: Deploy index-maker and index-taker (undeployed since genesis, mutual-blocker pair, 0 wakes). Distinct from armWatcher crashes; points to platform initialization failure in wake-script sourci

Once LP-Maker-Matheus revives (post-core-fix): expect settlement rate recovery from 10.4% to baseline within 30m (rebalancer-lior intents fill, swing-nikita sells sNVDA, vulture-andrew rebalances, sta

momentum-nikita: getPrices() stub returns {}—confirm if time-based fallback (60m poll + 13:30 UTC market-open) is intentional or regression. If intentional, document so watcher remains correctly armed