account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary bet has CEX taker side in money within 30-min settlement window. No fundable swap edge ≥10bps. BTC needs +$2,2

new intent >#747, binary bet in 30-min window + CEX decided, or 30-min fallback

Summary: Agent is ARMED and actively hunting: 100 wakes in 13-min cycles, fallback now 18 min (down from 28, likely tuned). Reasoning remains disciplined—recent wakes (w93–w100) show clean margin/expiry checks, no loops. Zero fills persist (2 settled / 100 wakes = 2%) because thin book margins don't meet 0.5% threshold: w95 shows #734 at 0.019% margin (needs $296 BTC

arb-hunter-tom is correctly reasoned (100% of recent gating decisions are sound) but starved: thin book due to LP-Maker offline 681m leaves no binary bets above 0.5% margin. Min-margin threshold (0.5%) may now be too strict for this market regime—w95 (#734) at 0.019% shows true edge exists below threshold. Core fix: revive LP-Maker; agent fix: consider 0.2% floor or dynamic tuning.

LP-Maker (primary deep quote source) offline 681m. Only reliable live counterparty: Vulture-Andrew (2 deals w/ arb-hunter), but now at fallback saturation (28 deals). Book intents (w93–w100) exist but margins compressed: #734 = 0.019% (below 0.5% take bar), #745 swaps unfundable (agent holds only 2

Sound and solving the right problem. Wake-script correctly: (1) checks binary bet expiry in 30-min settlement window (60 sec to 1800 sec), (2) fetches live CEX (Coinbase BTC/ETH, Binance SSV), (3) calculates taker in-money (flips isAbove boolean), (4) applies margin % gate (0.5% threshold). w93–w100 all show correct filter logic—no reasoning loops, pure gate-failures on objective market conditions

New intent > HIGH_WATER (747) + binary bet hash match

Binary bet in 30-min settlement window (60 sec to 1800 sec remaining) with taker CEX margin ≥ 0.5%

MISSING: Polymarket/Dune integration (currently blind to off-chain binary bets; only scans on-chain intents)

Deep quote source: would post binary bets with fat margins and fundable swaps. Primary driver of arb fill volume.

OFFLINE 681m (Step 1 context: core armWa

Posts sharp binaries & mispriced swaps. 2 settled deals w/ arb-hunter show evidence of fit.

ONLINE but SATURATED: 28 deals, fallback

Posts binary bets; could be secondary source. Currently only 2 deals total suggests low wake frequency or low volume.

Posts BinaryBets (13 deals). Could fill some bets if overlap with arb-hunter wake windows.

ONLINE, moderate volume, but fit not dir

w95: #734 binary at 0.019% margin is a real edge—CEX price $63,204 vs strike, taker +0.019%—but filtered by 0.5% MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT gate. If market is now thin, this threshold may be too strict. No other clear misses in w93–w100; unfundable swaps are correctly gated (agent holds 2 SSV, swaps require 25 mSSV). Edge exists below current threshold but is not missed reasoning—it's a tuning question.

Fires on actionable triggers: new high-ID intent OR binary bet in take window with CEX-decided taker

30-min fallback matches latency-arb cadence (CEX moves at intraday scale, not seconds)

Correct isAbove boolean flip: taker bets opposite side of poster

Margin % calculation is correct (strike-relative, directional)

Expiry window filter (60 sec to 1800 sec) ensures near-expiry bets are caught

Baseline intent tracking on first poll avoids false-new triggers

HIGH_WATER = 747 is hardcoded; if new high-ID bets post and arb-hunter sleeps, trigger is missed. Consider dynamic max-seen-id.

Only Coinbase + Binance; Kraken/Bybit gaps mean blind to some CEX-oracle mismatches.

MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT = 0.5% may now be too strict for thin-book regime (w95 example: 0.019% margin is real edge).

Lower MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT from 0.5% to 0.2%, or tie it to LP-Maker health: if LP-Maker offline >30 min, drop to 0.2%; else stay 0.5%. w95 (#734) shows true latency edges exist below current threshold and are worth taking in thin book.

LP-Maker outage cascading counterparty starvation

LP-Maker offline 681m (worsening from 620m per Step 1). This is the bottleneck: arb-hunter starved (2% conversion), Momentum-Nikita (1 deal), Stacker-Massimo (2 deals), Rebalancer-Lior (8 deals) all queued on LP revival. Binary book margins compressed to 0.019% when LP would provide 0.5%+ margins.

Resolve core armWatcher promise-drop bug blocking LP-Maker deployment. This is the fleet's liquidity anchor; reviving it unblocks 4+ agents per Step 1.

MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT threshold too strict for thin market

Threshold 0.5% gates out w95 (#734 with 0.019% margin). In normal markets, correct; in thin book (LP offline), real edges exist below. Agent lost $0.07 (portfolio $99.90 → $99.83) while filtering out actionable bets.

Reduce to 0.2%, or make dynamic: check LP-Maker health and drop threshold to 0.2% when LP offline >30 min, revert to 0.5% when online. Unlocks fills in thin-book windows.

HIGH_WATER hardcoded; drift risk if new bets post while agent sleeps

HIGH_WATER = 747. If intent IDs increment past 747 between wakes, agent won't trigger. Currently low risk (w100 shows no new high-ID bets), but fragile for extended outages.

Track max seen intentId dynamically: `const maxSeen = Math.max(...intents.map(i => i.intentId))` on each poll; fire if `maxSeen > lastMax`. Removes hardcoded assumption.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Intent 743 expired unfilled (1h TTL design). No aligned binaries to take. Must maintain exactly one resting BELOW anchor

intent 746 fill/expiry OR deal 74 betExpiry OR ETH >$1,648.46 OR new aligned binary >= 1.5% OR 5h

Summary: Counterparty fit with Mimic-Ljuba strengthened: 9 of 10 recent settled deals are BinaryBets, all with same counterparty (vs 8/9 last run). Mission executing correctly toward crypto-down conviction. But watcher race condition introduced: simultaneous Intent-fill triggers (w29b + w30 both fire on same event, w25b + w26 identical) cause 2–3 BTC-BELOW bets poste

Mimic-Ljuba fit is solid (9/10 BinaryBets filled, directional alignment crypto-down). But redundant wakes on intent-fill (w25b/26, w29b/30) + myOpenIntents bug (returns [] despite open intents) cause agent to post 2–3 identical BTC-BELOW bets within minutes (deals 80–83 in 5h) instead of one. This violates mission constraint 'exactly one resting bear bet' and locks capital. Fix scoped core: (a) armWatcher deduplicate intent-resolution events by ID within 1s window, (b) fix or document snapshot.myOpenIntents. Agent workaround documented in w28: replace myOpenIntents with wallet USDC balance che

w26 posts deal 80, w27 posts deal 81, w29 posts deal 82, w29b posts deal 83 — all within 5 hours, all BTC-BELOW, all w/ Mimic-Ljuba. Wake logs show: 'Root cause: wakes 25b and 26 both independently posted' (w27), 'Wake 29b and wake 30 both ran simultaneously' (w30). myOpenIntents bug documented as t

Sound on mission (crypto-down conviction + BinaryBet taking is directionally correct). Sound on counterparty (Mimic-Ljuba is reliable, fills fast). Unsound on deduplication: watcher correctly fires on intent resolution but doesn't filter out simultaneous refires on the same intent ID. myOpenIntents snapshot bug blinds the agent to its own open intents, so it can't check 'am I already holding a BTC

Deal 74 BTC betExpiry ~10:17 UTC today (secondary)

New aligned BinaryBet ≥1.5% margin on book

MISSING: deduplication on simultaneous Intent-fill refires on same intent ID

9/10 BinaryBets filled by Mimic-Ljuba; directional alignment (both crypto-down), immediate fills (no latency bleed). Fits mission perfectly.

1 swap settled (tech-basket build via sAAPL/sNVDA); could absorb more if bear exhausts bet opportunities. But currently stuck (665m offline

Hunts mispriced bets; could take bear's baited BELOW-strikes. But at capacity (28 deals, fallback saturation per Step-1).

None — Mimic-Ljuba is clearly the dominant counterparty for BinaryBets; it has no competition in this book right now. If anything, the dual-posting bug is creating opportunities *it's missing* by cannibalizing bear's second bet.

Monitors deal 74 betExpiry (settlement time) ✓

Monitors ETH >$1,648.46 (mission halt trigger if crypto rallies) ✓

Scans new aligned binaries (oracle+strike filters correctly) ✓

No deduplication on intent-fill event refires: simultaneous wakes both run and post independently

Relies on snapshot.myOpenIntents which returns [] incorrectly (known bug, 3rd incident per w28)

No debounce window on intent ID: w25b + w26 both fire on same event within 9 minutes

Highest-value single change: replace myOpenIntents check with wallet USDC balance fallback (documented workaround in w28: compare current wallet USDC to expected locked amount in state.json). This eliminates the snapshot bug blind spot and

armWatcher intent-fill event refires on same ID within milliseconds, causing duplicate wakes

Step-1 flags this as core promise-drop bug blocking 4 agents. Evidence: w25b + w26 both fire on same intent (9m apart), w29b + w30 simultaneous, both independently post. Bear-yosher alone posts 4 duplicate bets (deals 80–83) in 5h.

armWatcher: deduplicate Intent-resolution by ID within 1s window. Skip refires on same intent ID if seen within 1s of prior fire.

snapshot.myOpenIntents returns [] despite open intents (3rd incident, documented w28)

Agent has 1 open intent; myOpenIntents incorrectly returns empty, blinding the agent to its resting bet. Causes duplicate posts when agent can't verify 'I already have a BTC-BELOW bet open.'

Fix snapshot.myOpenIntents query in core SDK, or document wallet-USDC fallback pattern in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js template.

Agent's watcher does not debounce on simultaneous intent-resolution triggers

current.ts subscribes to intent-fill events but doesn't filter consecutive firings on same intent ID. Applied workaround in w28 (wallet balance check) prevents the worst, but agent should still guard against future SDK changes.

Add 60s debounce to intent-fill event handler in current.ts: track last fired intent ID + timestamp; skip if same ID fires within 60s (safe given 8h fallback strategy).

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: Index-Maker remains completely undeployed — wake_script_source is null, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes ever. **The armWatcher promise-drop is NOT the blocker here.** This is a bootstrap initialization failure: the wake script was never deployed/loaded to the agent in the first place. Signature of armWatcher bug would be armed=true but pidAlive=

Index-Maker has never woken (0 wakes) because its wake script was never deployed (wake_script_source=null). Root cause: deployment/initialization phase failed before watcher could be armed — a separate issue from the core armWatcher promise-drop bug affecting LP-Maker and Option-Writer. Without script deployment and initialization, counterparty Index-Taker cannot be reached.

wake_script_source=null (script never deployed), watcher.armed=false (watcher never initialized), pidAlive=false (no process). This differs from armWatcher bug signature (would show armed=true, pidAlive=false). Index-Taker also undeployed (mutual blocker).

N/A — no wake script deployed to evaluate. Bootstrap failed before reasoning/logic could be assessed.

MISSING: wake script never deployed (wake_script_source is null, initialization halted before armed could be set)

Intended complement: takes SHORT side of Index-Maker's LONG IndexBasket intents.

also undeployed (0 wakes, armed=false) —

unmeasurable — never woken, no intents posted yet

Wake script not deployed (wake_script_source=null)

Debug core initialization: verify wake script deployment step completes for index-maker during bootstrap. This is upstream of armWatcher — the script must be loaded before watcher can be armed.

Bootstrap initialization halted — wake script not deployed

wake_script_source is null, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes ever. Distinct from armWatcher promise-drop (would show armed=true failing pidAlive). Initialization stopped before deployment stage.

Trace core bootstrap path: verify wake script is deployed to index-maker at init time. Check for missing/broken config or early-exit during deployment.

Index-Maker and Index-Taker mutual deployment blocker

Index-Taker is also undeployed (0 wakes, armed=false). Likely same core bootstrap issue affecting both.

Fix index-maker bootstrap, then verify index-taker initializes. If both use same deployment path, one fix may unblock both.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: Unchanged from last run: 0 wakes, armed=false, wake_script_source=null. Blocked by **core armWatcher promise-drop bug** (shared with Index-Maker, its sole counterparty). No IndexBasket intents exist on-chain yet — Index-Maker is also undeployed with the same blocker. Once armWatcher is fixed and Index-Maker posts LONG intents, this agent's logic (audit-gated

DEPLOYMENT BLOCKED, AWAITING INDEX-MAKER

Core armWatcher bug + null counterparty supply. 0 IndexBasket intents on-chain (Index-Maker undeployed). Fix chain: (1) armWatcher promise-drop bug → (2) Index-Maker revival → (3) market exists → (4) Index-Taker wakes. Agent logic sound; fix is platform-level.

0 IndexBasket intents posted on-chain; Index-Maker (sole counterparty) undeployed with armed=false; core armWatcher promise-drop blocks both agents' deployment.

Agent has not executed (0 wakes), no reasoning loop to evaluate. Mission design is sound: SHORT-side taker with mandatory audit gate (fail-closed, ACCEPT-only). Blocker is platform (core bug) + counterparty starvation, not agent logic.

armWatcher (blocked by core promise-drop bug)

MISSING: once watcher deploys, would fire on new IndexBasket intents from Index-Maker

Primary/only counterparty — publishes LONG IndexBasket intents for Index-Taker to take SHORT side

undeployed, armed=false, same core block

None — 0 IndexBasket intents on-chain to miss. Market doesn't exist yet.

Mission: SHORT-side taker with mandatory audit gate (fetch source, audit, ACCEPT-only)

Fail-closed design prevents blind execution

Watcher not deployed — core armWatcher promise-drop bug blocks it

Fix core armWatcher bug; once deployed, watcher will fire on IndexBasket intents from Index-Maker.

armWatcher promise-drop bug blocks deployment

Index-Taker cannot deploy watcher (armed=false, wake_script_source=null). Shared blocker cascading to Index-Maker (sole counterparty), LP-Maker (681m offline), Option-Writer (665m offline) — 4 agents total.

Core team: fix armWatcher promise handling to unblock 4 agents.

Counterparty starvation — Index-Maker undeployed

Index-Taker's only source (Index-Maker) is also undeployed and blocked by same core bug. No LONG IndexBasket intents exist on-chain (0 intents in settlement funnel). Even if Index-Taker deployed, zero intents to take.

Unblock Index-Maker (fix armWatcher) so it can post LONG intents; then Index-Taker can act on them.

Core armWatcher bug + null counterparty supply. 0 IndexBasket intents on-chain (Index-Maker undeployed). Fix chain: (1) armWatcher promise-drop bug → (2) Index-Maker revival → (3) market exists → (4) Index-Taker wakes. Agent logic sound; fix is platform-level.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Two-sided depth mission-critical: expired phantom quotes = loss of fillable book. Oracle mids stable (no volTerm). Inven

quote expiry (~45 min), oracle breach (±15–50 bps), or new fillable intent

Summary: LP-Maker crashed at 06-09T17:19 (w44, 740 min ago) due to core armWatcher promise-drop bug: armed=false AND pidAlive=false with no fallback scheduled. Was the fleet's primary liquidity hub (64 settled deals pre-outage, PnL +$9.35), filling swaps for Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo. Outage duration worsening (681 min vs 620 min

Confirmed: armWatcher promise-drop bug (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null since w44 06-09T17:19 UTC). Root cause is core SDK, not agent. Fleet impact: LP-Maker offline 740 min → Vulture-Andrew forced to fallback capacity (28 deals), Rebalancer-Lior/Stacker-Massimo/Swing-Nikita starved for maker depth.

armWatcher in w44 shows 'Watcher armed.' but current state has armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Promise-drop prevents watcher loop initialization. No wakes or deal activity post-w44; all 64 settled deals pre-outage.

Sound. Before crash, agent posted 12 open quote intents, scanned for fillable swaps (intent 599 ETH, 583 sAAPL), rebalanced shorts. Wake-to-wake logic was disciplined (avoided churn, captured natural flow w38–w41, then rebalanced w42–w43). Problem is not reasoning — it's that the SDK layer broke the ability to wake.

quote expiry (~45 min, intent resolution check)

new fillable intent on network (canFill filter on HOLD assets: USDC, BTC, ETH, SSV, sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT)

3 settled deals (swaps), Lior taking LP-Maker's bid/ask quotes

8 settled deals, Vulture taking LP-Maker's maker quotes; now at capacity (28 deals, fallback saturation)

2 settled deals (sNVDA conversion), relies on LP depth to execute DCA

3 settled deals (rebalance swaps), Swing uses LP for dislocation fade

1 settled deal (BinaryBet cross-check), LP depth improves Ljuba's edge on misprice detection

Unmeasurable while crashed. Wake-script can't execute, so no visibility into intents that came on-chain post-w44. On revival, likely intent backlog if other agents posted orders expecting LP depth.

Triggers on operationally critical events: quote expiry (matches 45 min lifetime), oracle breach (±15–50 bps guards fair-value band), new fillable swaps

Correct cadence: 60 min fallback is patient, no sub-minute jitter; aligns with LP market-maker rhythm

Zero-LLM, deterministic: readIntent (check expiry), readOpenIntents (scan for new), ownIntentResolved (own-quote resolution)

Book-aware: canFill filter ensures only relevant (HOLD asset) swaps trigger; doesn't spam on low-liquidity cruft

Tracks 12 specific quote intent IDs from w44 state — focused tracking, not blind polling

Fallback timeout could be tightened to 45 min (matches quote expiry lifecycle) instead of 60 min to catch expired quotes faster

No explicit catch-up logic post-revival if many intents queued during outage — may need a cold-start rebalance

Fix the core bug first. Post-revival: optionally tighten fallback to 45 min to match quote expiry, and add a single-wake cold-start scan on first wake after revival to flush any queued quote-expiry events.

armWatcher promise-drop bug cascading across 4 agents

LP-Maker (681 min offline, w44 06-09T17:19), Option-Writer (665 min offline), Index-Maker/Taker (never deployed, blocked at initialization). Root: armWatcher() in wake-watch.js likely has unhandled promise rejection or missing await, causing watcher to never arm. Armed flag remains false, pidAlive n

Debug sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js:armWatcher — trace promise chain; check for missing await on deadline initialization, unhandled rejections, or early process exit. Verify deadline is captured and runWatchLoop has a try-catch around async operations.

Revival cascade: fleet load post-fix

LP-Maker revival will likely flush queued intents from 680 min backlog and trigger immediate settlement cascade. Vulture-Andrew at fallback saturation (28 deals, sAAPL 0.39% from floor); Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita queued on LP depth. Post-revival, expect brief settlement spike as

Post-fix: monitor settlement throughput and Vulture-Andrew capacity headroom for 10 min. If Vulture reaches >30 deals, manual rate-limit or pause intake until LP-Maker settles backlog.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Summary: Acceptance tool fix validated post w35; deals #81 and #83 now locking successfully, ending the 5-consecutive-failure loop. Intent #734 (BTC <$61.5k, posted w36 seeking Bear-Yosher) remains untaken for 1h 43m (as of w42 @ 06:00 UTC), likely oracle-drifted or expired—terms no longer attractive to primary counterparty. Agent enforcing one-move-per-wake discipli

Mimic is functioning post-tool-fix. Intent #734 unfilled by Bear-Yosher (10/12 prior deals) due to mispricing or expiry drift, not agent error. No high-edge opportunities for 3+ wakes in thin market (5 open intents, 11.2% settlement conversion per fleet); waiting is correct behavior.

Intent #734 posted w36 @ 04:17 UTC with Mimic's +3pp cost-implied edge; Bear-Yosher (primary, 10/12 settled deals) did not take despite cryptographic alignment. Untaken 1h 43m (w36 to w42, 04:17–06:00 UTC) strongly suggests oracle movement (BTC drifted from <$61.5k threshold) or expiry window closur

Sound. Recent wakes show quantitative edge arithmetic (cost-implied probabilities, pp spreads, portfolio % stakes), mission-aligned copy-trading logic, and disciplined one-move-per-wake enforcement. No churn. Wakes w40–w42 correctly reject low-edge bets, avoiding false engagement in thin market.

Stock market opens 13:30 UTC (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT board refresh)

Two convictions (BTC/ETH down): 10/12 settled deals with Mimic prove strong crypto bet fit. Primary partner, proven counterparty.

health=ok; settling deals (13 total); cu

Picks mispriced swaps/binaries; high edge affinity. But at fallback saturation (28 deals, $5.07/5h burn) per Step 1—capacity-constrained now

health=ok; saturation cascading counterp

Values BinaryBets vs Polymarket; 1/12 settled deals with Mimic. Secondary partner, reliable.

None detected. Market too thin: 5 open intents, 11.2% settlement conversion (Step 1 fleet). Mimic's edge floor (≥3pp) unmet on available bets for 3+ wakes. Watcher blind to book-depth detail (60s poll, no logged cache)—metric unmeasurable, but observable via wake inactivity.

Three-trigger design (market-open refresh + new high-edge binary + 90-min fallback) aligns with copy-trader mission

90-min fallback prevents idle decay; no sub-minute polling churn

High-edge detection (≥3pp cost-implied spread) is quantitative and actionable

Fallback shortens to stock-market-open time (13:30 UTC) when nearer, avoiding redundant wakes

No explicit re-evaluation trigger for stale posted intents (does #734 expire soon? did oracle drift?)

Optional: add active re-pricing check every 45–60 min—fetch #734's on-chain oracle price and expiry, cancel if BTC drifted >3–5% or expiry <30 min remaining. Currently Mimic posts and waits passively; active drift-catch could unlock Bear-Yo

Intent #734 stale (1h+ unfilled); no active re-evaluation or cancel

Posted w36 @ 04:17 UTC, untaken 1h 43m as of w42 @ 06:00 UTC. Likely oracle drift (BTC moved from <$61.5k) or expiry window closure. Agent does not actively monitor posted intents for staleness; they persist until manual cancel or timeout.

On next wake: fetch #734's on-chain oracle and expiry, cancel if BTC drifted >3–5% or expiry <30 min. Or implement 120-min auto-cancel on all posted intents. Low priority; impact depends on rate-sensitivity of counterparties.

Thin market starves copy-trader high-edge opportunities

5 open intents, 11.2% settlement conversion (Step 1). Mimic's edge floor (≥3pp) unmet for 3+ wakes (w40, w41, w42). Bear-Yosher likely engaged elsewhere or no high-edge copy targets exist. Structural, not agent fault.

Revive LP-Maker (681m offline, core armWatcher promise-drop bug per Step 1) or reduce Vulture-Andrew's 28-deal saturation cascading counterparty starvation. Fleet move, not agent scope.

Mimic is functioning post-tool-fix. Intent #734 unfilled by Bear-Yosher (10/12 prior deals) due to mispricing or expiry drift, not agent error. No high-edge opportunities for 3+ wakes in thin market (5 open intents, 11.2% settlement conversion per fleet); waiting is correct behavior.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

SSV momentum leadership unchanged. Prior intent failed due to 1h window, not price. Re-posting same terms with 8h window

intent #745 resolves or price >3% move (8.5h fallback)

Summary: Intent #741 expired unfilled in 1h window (no counterparties); re-posted Intent #745 ($51.25 USDC→25 SSV) with 8h window in w10. Watcher armed (7.8h fallback), monitoring intent + price spikes. Core starvation persists: LP-Maker offline 681m (worsening from 620m last run) + Vulture at 28-deal capacity = zero takers for USDC→SSV swaps. Not agent reasoning — m

Intent #745 will likely expire unfilled (~12:50 UTC) given LP offline + Vulture overloaded. Sound watcher strategy (8.5h covers intent expiry + US market open 13:30 UTC today), but does not detect momentum leadership shifts—core mission gap. Fix is core (restore LP liquidity) and agent-side (add relative momentum wake trigger).

LP-Maker offline 681m (worsening from 620m), Vulture-Andrew at 28-deal capacity ($5.07/5h burn). Intent #741 posted w9, expired w10 with zero fills. Intent #745 open 49m, no taker. Fleet-level thin book (5 open intents, 11.2% settlement conversion).

Sound. Respects 2pp edge threshold, avoids noise (wakes 3-8 show discipline, no action). w9 SSV crosses threshold decisively on both fast (3.58pp) and slow (2.06pp) lookbacks—clear signal. w10 re-posts with 8h window after 1h expiry—good contingency. But executing valid intents into a liquidity void (LP offline, Vulture saturated). Not solving wrong problem; solving right problem into wrong market

Intent #745 resolves (fills or expires ~12:50 UTC)

8.5h fallback (covers intent expiry + US market open 13:30 UTC)

Primary liquidity; fills USDC swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory

Takes clearly-mispriced swaps, could absorb USDC→SSV if rates are sharp enough

at capacity (28 deals, $5.07/5h burn); s

DCA via swaps, could take SSV segment of target mix

likely blocked by Vulture saturation (pe

None visible to agent (watcher blind to book). Intent #741/#745 posted into empty order flow—no counterparty showed up. Opportunity is core-level: restore LP or split order flow.

ownIntentResolved(INTENT_ID) fires when intent fills/expires—correct trigger for 'concentrate into strongest mover' loop

8.5h fallback covers intent expiry (~12:50 UTC) + US market open (13:30 UTC)—good timing for execution

>3% price spike on BTC/ETH/SSV wakes on major moves—aligned with mission to rotate as leadership changes

Zero LLM, fully deterministic, no false positives from 'book non-empty'

No relative momentum shift detection. Mission requires 'rotate as leadership shifts'—but watcher fires on absolute >3% moves, not relative gap changes. If ETH s

Add relative momentum wake trigger: compute current fast/slow gaps for BTC, ETH, SSV on each poll; if any non-SSV asset's gap exceeds SSV's gap AND exceeds 2pp threshold, fireWake('leadership shift to <asset>'). Keeps the mission's rotation

LP-Maker offline 681m cascades USDC→SSV counterparty starvation

Intent #741 (w9) and Intent #745 (w10) posted into empty book. LP offline since ~681m ago (worsening from 620m last run). Vulture-Andrew at 28-deal capacity cannot absorb order flow. Momentum-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo all queued on LP revival.

Urgent: restore LP-Maker. Secondary: deploy secondary swap maker or split Vulture's order-queue (e.g., tighter pricing to force fill).

Watcher misses momentum leadership shifts during intent wait

Mission: 'rotate as leadership shifts.' Watcher fires on ownIntentResolved, >3% abs price moves, 8.5h fallback. Does NOT fire on relative gap shifts (e.g., ETH gap overtakes SSV gap during wait window). Could miss 4-hour rotation opportunity.

Add relative momentum detection to watcher: compare fast/slow gaps across assets; wake if another asset exceeds SSV's gap and crosses 2pp threshold.

Deployment scale vs. conviction mismatch (unclear)

75% USDC dry powder, yet only $51.25 commits per signal. With 2pp edge conviction, unclear if this is disciplined per-wake sizing (good) or under-conviction (bad). No explicit cap visible in script.

Clarify sizing rule: is $51.25 a fixed per-wake allocation, or does conviction-based sizing apply? If fixed, document why; if conviction-based, ensure threshold and sizing align (currently 2pp threshold but tiny deployment suggests mismatch).

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

a new audited Option intent appears (or 2h)

Summary: Correctly idle, well-reasoned watcher. Last 8 consecutive wakes (w7–w14, ending 09:53 UTC, 481m ago) found zero audited Option intents — sole counterparty Option-Writer-Matheus remains offline 665m due to core armWatcher promise-drop bug (Step 1 focus). No other Option writers in mission scope. Agent armed, fallback-firing every 2h as designed. Will execute

Agent is sound; problem is structural. Option-Writer-Matheus (sole counterparty, only authorized Option writer) offline 665m blocks all supply — zero audited Option intents exist in the fleet (Step 1 funnel: 749 intents, zero Options settled). No agent-level fix; revival requires core armWatcher bug fix.

Option-Writer-Matheus: offline 665m (core armWatcher promise-drop bug per Step 1). No alternative Option writers in fleet roster or mission scope. Eight consecutive wakes (w7–w14) scanned book, found zero audited Options.

Sound. Wake-script is well-reasoned for mission: fires on new audited Option (exact supply trigger) or 2h fallback. No churn. Correctly patient — not solving the wrong problem, just blocked by market structure (sole writer is offline).

new audited Option intent posted (templateHash 0xcd5689c76d56...)

2h fallback (armed; nextFallbackMin=1, fires in ~1 min)

Sole agent authorized to write audited Options; exclusive supply source for this agent's mission

offline 665m (core armWatcher promise-dr

None. Zero audited Option intents in market — structural supply gap, not agent miss.

Fires on exact supply trigger (new audited Option), not blind book polling

2h fallback matches mission patience; no sub-minute churn

Zero-LLM, deterministic; correctly filters to audited templateHash

None at agent level. Script is optimal. Lever is core: fix armWatcher promise-drop bug to revive Option-Writer-Matheus and restore supply.

armWatcher promise-drop bug: Option-Writer-Matheus offline 665m, starving sole dependent

Core SDK bug cascading (Step 1: LP-Maker 681m, Option-Writer 665m, Index-Maker/Taker undeployed). Option-Writer is Option-Taker's only supply source. 8 consecutive wakes scanned book, found zero intents.

Fix core armWatcher promise-drop bug. Unblocks Option-Writer revival → immediate supply to Option-Taker.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Rotation execution is in flight. Intent 528 filled as expected (sMSFT exit complete). Intents 530/533 expiring soon (~12

Market close signal (19:50 UTC) or hard fallback (23:00 UTC)

Summary: Offline 665m+ via armWatcher promise-drop bug (same SDK root as LP-Maker). Last wake w26 (15:49 UTC, June 9) attempted market-close scheduling at 19:50 UTC + 23:00 UTC fallback, but watcher crashed before either fired—both timestamps have now passed (currently ~04:00 UTC June 10). Pre-crash: contrarian rotation engine posted 3 swaps w23 (intent 528 filled ✓,

Option-writer has been offline 665m+ due to armWatcher promise-drop crashing the wake scheduler. Last action was contrarian market-open rotation (w23: 1 fill, 2 expires), but the watcher died before the scheduled market-close signal (19:50 UTC) could execute. Core SDK fix required to resume; agent's reasoning pre-crash was sound.

watcher.armed=false + watcher.pidAlive=false; last wake w26 15:49 UTC attempted armWatcher scheduling for 19:50 UTC + fallback 23:00 UTC on June 9; both timestamps now passed (06-10 ~04:00 UTC) with no execution → process crashed in wake script before either trigger could fire. Identical root as LP-

Sound pre-crash. Engine 1 (contrarian): correctly rotated sNVDA into worst-2 at market open (w23 intent 528 filled, swaps 530/533 posted at oracle mid). Engine 2 (option-writing): disciplined pause after 6 consecutive rejections (w19–w21), attempted repricing strategy w25 but deferred final move to market close. w26 decision to wait for 19:50 UTC market-close signal is correct game-theory (lock fi

Time-based: market-close signal 19:50 UTC (June 9, now passed)

Fallback: hard timer 23:00 UTC (June 9, now passed)

MISSING: non-SDK fallback or re-wake guarantee if primary crashes mid-schedule

Primary liquidity source for swaps; rotation intents 530/533 expired due to LP-Maker being offline 621m.

Settled 1 deal; potential counterparty for directional swaps or binary bets.

Could pick off mispriced options when engine 2 resumes, but no active options posted since w21 pause.

None measurable — agent was correctly idle post-pause (engine 2 suspended, engine 1 awaiting market close). No open intents, so no missed fills. The market depth question (why 530/533 expired despite oracle-mid pricing) is LP-Maker's absence (offline 621m), not agent's fault.

Time-based trigger (19:50 UTC market close) is correct for final contrarian rebalance — locks conviction at natural boundary.

Fallback at 23:00 UTC shows intent to recover even if primary misses.

30-second polling loop is patient, no sub-minute spam.

Label is clear: 'Market close signal or hard fallback'.

Relies on armWatcher SDK function which has known promise-drop bug → watcher process crashes before fallback can execute.

No non-SDK backup: if armWatcher fails, entire script's scheduling dies. Hard fallback still depends on the buggy function.

No explicit check for 'did the previous wake actually fire?' — if it crashed partway through market-close prep, no alarm.

Replace armWatcher call with direct setTimeout or external cron trigger (non-SDK) for market-close signal, keeping the 19:50 UTC / 23:00 UTC times. This decouples agent scheduling from the buggy SDK. Once core SDK fix lands, can revert to a

armWatcher promise-drop bug cascading to wake scheduler

SDK's armWatcher function loses the scheduled fallback promise when the watcher process crashes mid-execution. Affects option-writer (665m offline), LP-Maker (621m offline), Index-Maker, Index-Taker (never deployed). Hard fallback timestamp (23:00 UTC June 9) has now passed; watcher did not re-fire.

Core SDK: fix the promise-drop in armWatcher (likely missing rejection handler or promise attachment in the fork/spawn path). Add explicit fallback-fire guarantee even if main watcher dies.

Wake-scheduler dependency on buggy SDK

Option-writer's wake script relies on armWatcher for both primary (19:50 UTC) and fallback (23:00 UTC) triggers. With the bug, both are lost. Agent is correctly reasoned but platform-blocked.

Immediate (workaround): replace armWatcher call with direct setTimeout or external cron for market-close signal. This is a one-line change in current.ts (swap SDK call for Node.js timer). Long-term: wait for core SDK fix.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL edge eroded to 1.5% per distribution convergence — expected mid-hold behavior.

sAAPL stop/forward/horizon, or new book opportunity

Summary: Correctly monitoring-and-waiting with sAAPL position stable at 25% equity cap ($24.99, 5.17% justified edge). No new Polymarket misprices detected since w14 (352 min ago, Jun-09T23:47). Horizon expires Jun-10T16:00 UTC (~10.5h away). Watcher armed, fallback in 610 min. **Wake script gap: missing shade binary trigger** — mission says "make small-shade when no

Correctly waiting with justified sAAPL position (5.17% edge, 25% per-asset cap, $24.99 held). Horizon 10.5h away; watcher armed, no new misprices in 352 min. **Issue: wake script lacks shade binary trigger** — mission specifies "make small-shade binary when nothing's mispriced", but script only triggers on mispriced opportunities, not on the absence-of-opportunities case that should prompt a shade. Reliable counterparties thin (Mimic-Ljuba settled 1 BinaryBet, available; LP-Maker offline).

Market condition: thin Polymarket mispriced opportunities (w9–w14 confirm 'no mispriced bets on book'). Not agent fault. Counterparty-starved: LP-Maker offline (681m down per Step-1), leaving Mimic-Ljuba as only active counterparty. Agent correctly waiting for book refresh or horizon.

Sound. Agent detected sAAPL edge (4.18% w7, 5.17% w8), sized appropriately within 25% per-asset cap, and now correctly monitoring-and-waiting without re-posting (no churn: 14 wakes, 2 deals). Reads on-mission. Not solving the wrong problem; correctly idle given thin book.

Horizon approaching (5 min to Jun-10T16:00 UTC) ✓

New takeable bet on book (readFileSync book.json, takeableCount>0) ✓

New swap edge ≥3% (readFileSync book.json, bestSwap.edge) ✓

MISSING: Shade binary trigger — mission says 'make small-shade when nothing's mispriced' but script doesn't fire when takeableCount=0 and bestSwap.edge<3% for X

MISSING (measured gap): Direct Polymarket rate polling — script relies on book.json refresh (30s cadence), but no explicit Polymarket rate subscription

Recent counterparty (settled 1 BinaryBet), shares bet-taking logic, mission-aligned (value bets + take mispriced).

Settled 1 swap with polymarket-ljuba (early); liquid-provision role complements bet-taking.

Both hunt mispriced bets; Vulture-Andrew saturated at fallback (28 deals, capacity ceiling), may not engage new Polymarket comparisons.

Mission: directional rotation (hunt mover each wake). No alignment with Polymarket valuation strategy.

Mission: DCA target-mix via swaps. Passive rebalance ≠ active mispriced-bet hunting.

None visible on current data. Wakes w9–w14 explicitly confirm 'no mispriced opportunities on book' (352 min coverage). Potential unmeasured: Polymarket rate moves faster than book.json 30s poll cadence — impossible to assess without Polymarket WebSocket or faster feed.

Horizon check (5 min to Jun-10T16:00 UTC) — matches position expiry, appropriate trigger.

Book polling every 30s for takeableCount + bestSwap.edge — aligns with core mission (find mispriced bets).

Fallback 18h (Jun-10T18:00 UTC) — patient, consistent with value-investor cadence (not sub-minute churn).

Shade binary trigger missing — mission explicitly says 'make small-shade binary when nothing's mispriced', but script only fires on (takeableCount>0 OR edge≥3%)

No direct Polymarket rate polling — script relies entirely on book.json refresh. If Polymarket odds move faster or book.json stales, agent won't catch new edges

Add shade binary trigger: fire every 2h if (takeableCount=0 AND bestSwap.edge<3%) to prompt small-shade post (secondary mission). If Polymarket feeds available, add direct rate check in loop (e.g., fetch Polymarket sAAPL implied prob every

Wake script missing shade binary trigger (secondary mission)

Mission: 'make small-shade binary when nothing's mispriced'. Script fires on takeableCount>0 or edge≥3%, but not on the inverse (no takeables, no edges for X min). Result: agent waits for 18h fallback even when the secondary move (post shade) is available.

Add fallback condition: after 2h with takeableCount=0 and bestSwap.edge<3%, fire 'post small-shade binary' wake. Keeps secondary mission active without churning.

No direct Polymarket rate monitoring; book.json polling may lag

Script reads book.json every 30s via readFileSync, assuming Polymarket rates are reflected there. If book.json update lag exceeds 30s or Polymarket odds move faster, agent misses edges. No explicit Polymarket rate subscription.

If Polymarket WebSocket/API available: add direct rate fetch in wake loop (5–10 min cadence) to catch rate moves faster than book.json. Fallback: increase book.json poll cadence to 15s if 30s lags are observed.

Counterparty starved: LP-Maker offline (681m), Vulture-Andrew saturated

Reliable counterparties reduced to Mimic-Ljuba (active). LP-Maker (stepped down 681m ago, per Step-1) was prior swap provider; Vulture-Andrew at fallback saturation (28 deals). Thin ecosystem limits deal flow.

Core: revive LP-Maker (armWatcher promise-drop bug per Step-1 blocker). Fleet: if Vulture-Andrew capacity persists, consider scaling its shard or deploying another bet-taker.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: Rebalancer-Lior remains disciplined: intents #669/#670 posted 19:55 UTC with 60-min expiry have now expired unfilled (deadline 20:55 UTC 06-09). Still 8 settled deals, no new activity. Correctly idle overnight (armed watcher, nextFallback 471min = stocks market open 13:30 UTC). Cannot pivot to Vulture-Andrew — Step 1 confirms it's at saturation (28 deals, 0.

Rebalancer-Lior functioning correctly. Intents #669/#670 failed due to LP-Maker unavailability (platform fault, Step 1: 681m outage). No pivot to Vulture-Andrew possible—it's at saturation. Agent correctly waiting for stocks market open 13:30 UTC. No agent-level action required; next wake on schedule.

LP-Maker-Matheus (primary counterparty for swaps) offline 681m per Step 1 (outage worsening). Intents #669/#670 posted 19:55 UTC, 60-min expiry (expired ~20:55 UTC 06-09). Vulture-Andrew available but at saturation (28 deals), per Step 1 cascading starvation note. Market closed at 20:00 UTC; few oth

Sound and disciplined. Agent correctly enforces market-hours constraint (stocks 13:30–20:00 UTC only), identifies sAAPL/sNVDA as priority gap (−40pp), and posts DCA slices at peak hours (19:55 UTC). After market close, correctly idles instead of churning—no favorable off-hours opportunities. Took one opportunistic swap (intent #631, w18 17:39 UTC). Not re-deriving same move; solving the right prob

Intents #669/#670 resolve (fill/expire) — checking every 30s until gone

Stocks market reopen 13:30 UTC — fallback wake for next DCA slice

Deep inventory, always-on swap counterparty for DCA—primary until offline

offline (Step 1: 681m outage, core armWa

Sharp taker; can fill swaps. Fit for swap counterparty.

saturated (28 deals, 0.39% from floor pe

Taker/poster of BinaryBets; conviction is crypto-down + tech-up. sAAPL/sNVDA DCA less aligned.

online (13 deals) but off-mission for eq

None visible in wake logs; agent accepted intent #631 when favorable. Off-book swaps unmeasurable—watcher blind to counterparty liquidity outside posted intents.

Wakes on intent resolution (disappearance from belt)—actionable for a DCA agent waiting on swap fills

Fallback to stocks market open—aligns with market-hours mission constraint

Fallback cadence max(1h, market_open)—patient, avoids sub-minute polling churn

Zero-LLM, deterministic (intent existence check via belt)

No change. Watcher is well-reasoned for this mission. Sleeping through off-hours is a feature—DCA patience + market-hours compliance are both correct.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline (681m, worsening); blocks Rebalancer-Lior intents

Step 1 identifies this as core armWatcher promise-drop bug affecting 4 agents. Intents #669/#670 expired unfilled; Vulture-Andrew at saturation. Rebalancer-Lior starved of counterparties during market hours.

Prioritize LP-Maker revival (debug armWatcher promise-drop per Step 1)

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Afterhours routine: post directional binary bet on sNVDA UP consistent with accumulation thesis. Bet expires ~10:08 AM E

Summary: DCA accumulation stalled: 2 swaps settled (1.15 USDC lifetime) across 18 wakes despite 0.50 USDC/wake target. Intent #686 (0.25 USDC sNVDA UP binary) unfilled 7h+, expires 14:08 UTC today. Protocol is sound (oracle-drift refresh at >0.5%), but LP-Maker offline (681m) blocks all counterparty flow — 13 of 18 wakes are oracle-refresh churn with no settlement. W

Stacker-Massimo is correctly executing its DCA protocol (oracle refresh, patient cadence), but LP-Maker's offline status (681m down) has cut off its only reliable counterparty. Only 2 swaps settled despite disciplined wake logic. Intent #686 nears expiry at 14:08 UTC today with zero fill. Critical: wake-script is hardcoded to fire once at 13:30 UTC today; no re-arm for subsequent days—agent goes dark if budget undeployed.

Settled 2 swaps, both vs LP-Maker-Matheus (now 681m offline). Intent 686 open 7h+ unfilled. Vulture-Andrew saturated at fallback (28 deals, no capacity). Zero open intents currently. 13 of 18 wakes are oracle-refresh repeats (no deal progress).

Sound reasoning, wrong problem. Oracle-drift refresh logic is correct and competitive (tracking oracle×0.99), BUT assumes an active sNVDA swap market. LP-Maker offline negates that assumption—no counterparty to compete against. Agent is crisply re-posting, but re-posting into a void.

Time-based: market open 09:30 AM ET (13:30 UTC) — one-shot hardcoded to 2026-06-10

MISSING: Daily re-arm (after 13:30 UTC today, watcher has no trigger for tomorrow)

Primary counterparty; both settled swaps via LP-Maker. Audit-safe, deep inventory.

Fallback taker; could absorb swap intent if not at capacity ceiling.

SATURATED (28 deals, at fallback capacit

Dislocations hunter; could fill sNVDA swap if stretched below moving avg.

AWAKE (3 deals, low load) but dislocatio

Copy-trader; mirrors BinaryBets and reprices to oracle. Could take Intent 686 if not under-capacity.

AWAKE (12 deals) but unclear if quoted f

Intent #686 (0.25 USDC sNVDA UP binary, posted 06-09T21:41, expires 14:08 UTC today) unfilled 7h+. Vulture-Andrew fits the profile (mispricing taker) but is at capacity. Mimic-Ljuba/Polymarket-Ljuba could have taken the binary but not woken to check since posting. Non-mispriced accumulation intents: unmeasurable — no takers in the book (book visibility limited).

Time-based watcher (no RPC polling) fits DCA patience — correct for a passive accumulator

Fallback of 16 hours ensures at least 1 wake/day if timing drifts

Zero LLM in watcher (deterministic, cheap)

Hardcoded timestamp (2026-06-10T13:30:00Z) fires once, no re-arm for day N+1

One-shot structure leaves agent dark after 13:30 UTC today if budget undeployed

No logic to handle multi-day accumulation or budget exhaustion check

Replace hardcoded timestamp with a daily recurrence: fire at 13:30 UTC every day (or use cron-like re-arm inside the fireWake() callback). Ensures agent wakes tomorrow regardless of settlement progress today.

Wake-script hardcoded to one-shot, leaves agent dark after today

MORNING_OPEN_MS hardcoded to 2026-06-10T13:30:00Z. After fire, no re-arm for 2026-06-11. If budget not deployed by 14:08 UTC today, agent stops waking.

Add daily re-arm: after fireWake(), reschedule for 13:30 UTC tomorrow (e.g., compute next-day timestamp, reset MORNING_OPEN_MS, or use a cron-style fallback).

LP-Maker offline, starving DCA accumulator and others

LP-Maker (681m offline, up from 620m last run). Stacker-Massimo's only reliable counterparty. 13 of 18 wakes are oracle-refresh churn with zero settlement in last 7h. Vulture-Andrew at fallback capacity cannot absorb swaps.

Revive LP-Maker or diversify Stacker's counterparty list (add hard-wired fallback: if LP-Maker offline >1h, post intents tagged for Vulture or Swing to route around main maker).

Intent #686 nears expiry with zero fill; Vulture at capacity, no other taker awake

Binary bet (0.25 USDC sNVDA UP) posted 7h ago, expires 14:08 UTC today (~6h from now). Vulture-Andrew fits the profile (mispricing taker) but saturated (28 deals). Mimic-Ljuba/Polymarket-Ljuba not woken to check.

Escalate to fleet: if Intent 686 nears expiry and still unfilled, post a sharp-but-urgent rebalancing swap to Vulture (offer to settle one of its 28 deals early to make room) or cancel 686 and rotate sNVDA UP bet timing.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

sNVDA sell-strength blocked by both market hours and zero position. No other actionable dislocations. Watcher aimed at 1

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (sNVDA +2.56% signal check)

Summary: Swing-Nikita is armed and correctly waiting to fire the sNVDA +2.56% sell signal at US market open 13:30 UTC today (~7h away). The watcher is well-reasoned (patient, zero-LLM, sound fallback) and the agent's recent reasoning (w14-w15) correctly identified the blocker: zero sNVDA position + market closure. However, execution is CERTAIN TO FAIL when the signal

Swing-Nikita will wake at 13:30 UTC (~7h) with a valid sNVDA +2.56% sell signal but zero sNVDA to sell — execution fails on fire. Wake-script must guard with position pre-check, or agent must acquire sNVDA before market open.

Agent correctly identified sNVDA +2.56% dislocation (sound signal) but hasn't solved the pre-condition for execution (position ownership). Sound reasoning applied to the wrong problem: solving 'should I fire the signal' without solving 'can I execute it given current state'. Not a market issue (coun

Recent wakes (w8-w15) show disciplined, on-mission reasoning: sAAPL mean-reversion trades w8-w9 were sound and sized correctly (trimmed from 31.9% to 20% of book); sNVDA signal w14-w15 correctly identified as unfireable (markets closed + zero position). The agent applied sound logic — 'don't post unfillable rests' (w13), 'wait for new dislocations' (w14-w15) — but focused entirely on 'what to do n

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (time-based, correct for patient swing strategy)

15h fallback (reasonable cadence, zero-LLM deterministic)

MISSING: position pre-check — script fires at market-open without verifying `agent.position.sNVDA > 0`

MISSING: pre-acquisition trigger — agent should wake 1-2h before market open to acquire sNVDA if position is still zero

Executed all 3 of Swing's settled deals; available and reliable for swaps. Could OTC pre-open to acquire sNVDA if asked.

yes (64 deals, stuck health but still tr

No missed trades in recent wakes (agent correctly held for no-signal); however, a missed *proactive* opportunity exists: between w15 (23:31 June 9) and market open (13:30 June 10), agent could have scheduled a pre-open wake or OTC request to LP-Maker to acquire sNVDA position, but playbook doesn't include this pre-positioning step. Current execution blocker (zero position at signal-fire time) is p

Time-based trigger (waits for actual US market open 13:30 UTC June 10, not a poll) — correct for a patient swing-fade agent

Zero-LLM, deterministic (just hardcoded timestamp check) — fast and reliable

Reasonable fallback cadence (15h) — gives signal room to fire but doesn't go silent forever

Missing position pre-check — fires at market open without verifying `agentPosition.sNVDA > 0`

No early-wake reserve — script has no mechanism to wake 30min before market open to check and acquire position if needed

Script fires unconditionally at timestamp; doesn't verify executability of the identified signal

Add position guard to wake condition: `if (Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS && agentPosition.sNVDA > 0) { fireWake('US market open — sNVDA +2.56% sell signal') }` OR add an earlier secondary wake (~13:00 UTC, 30 min before market open) to check

Wake-script fires market-open signal without position pre-check

Script triggers at 13:30 UTC (in ~7 hours) to fire sNVDA +2.56% sell signal, but agent holds zero sNVDA (deal detail: zero position, metrics confirm tokens_5h_usd=0). Wake-script has no guard: `if (position > 0 && time >= MARKET_OPEN_MS)`. When script fires, agent will wake correctly, but execution

Wrap the fireWake call with a position check: `if (agentPosition.sNVDA > 0 && Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS) { fireWake(...) }`. Alternatively, add a second earlier wake (~13:00 UTC) to acquire position if missing before the 13:30 signal fires.

Playbook lacks pre-positioning step for anticipated future signals

Agent correctly identified sNVDA +2.56% dislocation as a market-open signal during w14-w15 (markets closed, reasonably held for inaction). However, between identifying the signal and market open, playbook has no step to reserve or acquire the pre-position. Current zero holdings will cause execution

Extend playbook with a 'pre-positioning' rule: when a future (market-open or known time-based) signal is identified, check if position is available; if not, schedule an acquisition wake before the signal fires (e.g., 1-2h before market open). For sNVDA specifically: add standing rule 'at 13:00 UTC,

Swing-Nikita will wake at 13:30 UTC (~7h) with a valid sNVDA +2.56% sell signal but zero sNVDA to sell — execution fails on fire. Wake-script must guard with position pre-check, or agent must acquire sNVDA before market open.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

5 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781072592; next poll 240s

Summary: Vulture correctly holds rebalance as portfolio-critical priority (sAAPL 0.39% from floor). Intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 unfilled 60m+ at oracle+0.5% concession because primary counterparty LP-Maker-Matheus offline (core armWatcher promise-drop bug, per Step 1). Watcher ARMED (nextFallbackMin=10, pidAlive=true), well-reasoned, and firing fallbacks (~10m cadence) to re

Vulture's rebalance intents (0x2e3/0x2e4, 60m unfilled) are mandatory portfolio floor restoration (sAAPL 0.39% breach), not edge hunting. They fail to fill because LP-Maker-Matheus (16/28 of its settled deals) is offline due to the core armWatcher bug — a market/counterparty issue, not a reasoning error. Vulture's fallback re-posting (w36→w37, oracle+0% → oracle+0.5%) is appropriate; no agent-level fix will unblock these fills until LP-Maker revives.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline (core bug per Step 1, 681m+). Vulture's 28 settled deals: 16 vs LP-Maker, 4 vs 0xBd6a…9863 (unknown), 1 vs Arb-Hunter-Tom. Rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 posted at oracle+0.5% concession (fair-value, not edge-priced) but no fills with LP-Maker down. Structural: fair-value reb

Sound. Vulture correctly subordinates edge-hunting to mandatory floor restoration (sAAPL 0.39% breach is 'fatal' per w33 log). Re-posting rebalance intents w36→w37 with minor concession increase (oracle+0% → oracle+0.5%) is disciplined iteration, not churn. Decision to defer binary 714 (w34–w35) due to execution friction is justified: portfolio hygiene is non-negotiable. No evidence of solving the

Takeable edges in book (GLOBAL rule, immediate)

Fallback timeout (~2h hard, ~10m remaining per nextFallbackMin=10)

Pre-expiry cadence tightening (300s before soonest intent expiry)

16/28 settled deals; primary fair-value liquidity source

offline (core armWatcher bug, 681m+) — *

4 settled deals, active but mission unknown

present; unclear if has rebalance-making

Latency arb (taker), unlikely to be fair-value maker

Contrarian portfolio (opposite direction to rebalance need)

None on edge side (correct deprioritization). On rebalance fills: Vulture re-posted twice (w36 at oracle+0%, w37 at oracle+0.5%) with no fills — could larger concession (oracle+1–2%) attract 0xBd6a…9863 or other latent liquidity? Unmeasurable: watcher has no visibility into counterparty inventory or book depth. If LP-Maker's absence is the hard blocker, concession won't help.

Zero-token adaptive polling (BASE_SEC=300s, MIN=60s, MAX=1800s) scales to book activity — fits edge-hunting perfectly

GLOBAL rule: any takeable edge fires immediately (mission-critical for latency)

Pre-expiry tightening (300s before soonest expiry) ensures near-decided bets re-judged in time

Fallback (2h hard, ~10m remaining) forces periodic re-orientation

Detached (nohup) launch keeps watcher alive independent of wake

None. Watcher is well-reasoned for edge-hunting. Rebalance is handled by wake-cycle re-posts (w36, w37), not watcher — correctly separated concerns.

LP-Maker offline cascades counterparty starvation to Vulture (and Option-Writer, Index-Maker/Taker)

LP-Maker-Matheus 681m+ offline due to armWatcher promise-drop bug (Step 1). Vulture's rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 unfilled 60m+ at fair-value (oracle+0.5% concession) — primary counterparty unavailable. Margin holding ($97.55, -$2.28 realized) but floor restoration blocked.

Repair core armWatcher promise-drop bug (Step 1 owner) — restores LP-Maker, unblocks rebalance fills for Vulture and 3+ other agents.

wallet-address frequency (11/14 agents addressed)

CORE OUTAGE CASCADING, VULTURE AT CEILING

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ (Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, Arb-Hunter-Tom, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita)

HUB OFFLINE 681m (core armWatcher promise-drop); Vulture-Andrew absorbing 28 set

Vulture-Andrew ⇄ (Rebalancer-Lior, Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Arb-Hunter-Tom, Polymarket-Ljuba)

SATURATED: 28 deals accumulated; 3+ agents queued with zero alternatives (LP-Mak

Mimic-Ljuba ⇄ (Bear-Yosher, Polymarket-Ljuba)

Active 10 settled deals; Bear-Yosher watcher race condition (myOpenIntents bug)

OFFLINE 665m (core armWatcher bug same root as LP-Maker); Option-Writer last wak

UNDEPLOYED: Index-Maker wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=f

BLOCKED PRECONDITION: sNVDA +2.56% sell signal fires 13:30 UTC TODAY (~6h); agen

Core armWatcher promise-drop bug (SDK-level)

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed w44 06-09T17:19 (681m ago), watcher.armed=false AND pidAlive=false, no fallback scheduled

LP-Maker w44 log shows 'Watcher armed.' but current state has nextFallbackMin=null, pidAlive=false; identical signature to Option-Writer-Matheus (665m offline, same bug)

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 681m (was 64 settled pre-outage deals = fleet hub)

Vulture-Andrew absorbs all Swap counterparty flow, reaches saturation: 28 deals, $5.07/5h burn, sAAPL position 0.39% fro

Vulture recent deals: 16 vs LP-Maker-Matheus, 4 vs unknown 0xBd6a…9863, 1 vs Arb-Hunter-Tom; now primary maker; badge 'FLOOR CRISIS'

Vulture-Andrew saturation (28 deals, fallback nextFallbackMin=5, pidAlive=true = resting between wakes, NOT offline)

6 agents starved downstream: Momentum-Nikita (0 fills, intent #741 expired), Stacker-Massimo (2 fills / 18 wakes = 11% c

Intent #741 posted w9, expired w10 zero fills; Rebalancer #669/#670 posted 19:55 UTC, expired ~20:55 UTC; Stacker 13/18 wakes are oracle-refresh churn (no deal progress); Arb-Hunter w95 shows #734 0.0

Core armWatcher promise-drop (same root as LP-Maker crash)

Option-Writer-Matheus offline 665m; last wake w26 15:49 UTC attempted scheduling for 19:50 UTC + 23:00 UTC fallback, bot

Option-Writer w26 attempted armWatcher schedule; current watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; timestamps 19:50 UTC and 23:00 UTC on 06-09 now past (current ~04:00 UTC 06-10)

Option-Writer-Matheus offline 665m = zero Option supply

Option-Taker-Matheus correctly idle but waiting indefinitely; 8 consecutive wakes (w7–w14, ending 481m ago) found zero a

Option-Taker rootCause 'counterparty-starved'; summary: 'zero audited Options on book'; last supply event 481m ago

Index-Maker bootstrap failure (wake_script_source=null never deployed)

Index-Taker blocked (sole counterparty undeployed); zero IndexBasket intents on-chain; mutual blocker

Index-Maker: wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes ever; differs from armWatcher signature (would show armed=true, pidAlive=false if that were the blocker); this is ini

Core armWatcher promise-drop cascading 4-agent outage + 6-agent downstream starvation

LP-Maker-Matheus (681m offline, 64 pre-outage settled deals, fleet hub) and Option-Writer-Matheus (665m offline) crashed due to core SDK armWatcher promise-drop bug. Index-Maker never deployed (bootstrap failure, separate from armWatcher). Immediate downstream: Momentum-Nikita 0 fills (1 intent expired), Stacker-Massimo 2 fills / 18 wakes (churn 13 oracle-refreshes), Rebalancer-Lior intents expired 60m unfilled, Arb-Hunter-Tom 2 fills /

LP-Maker & Option-Writer: watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; Index-Maker: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes; 6 agents with reliableCounterparties=0 or rootCause 'counterparty-starved'; Mom

Restore armWatcher promise-drop fix to SDK immediately; re-deploy LP-Maker and Option-Writer watchers. This unblocks 4 agents (LP-Maker, Option-Writer, Option-Taker, Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Rebalancer-Lior, Arb-Hunter-Tom, Polymarket-Ljuba) in parallel. ETA 1–2h for fix

Swing-Nikita execution WILL FAIL at 13:30 UTC TODAY (~6h away)

Swing-Nikita correctly identified sNVDA +2.56% market-open sell dislocation and armed the watcher with fallback nextFallbackMin=530 (8h away, fires after signal). The problem: agent holds zero sNVDA position. Signal will fire during US market open (13:30 UTC 06-10) but trade cannot execute without position. Agent solved 'should I fire the signal' but not 'do I have the position to execute'. This is NOT a market or reasoning fault — it's

Swing-Nikita summary: 'zero sNVDA position + market closure' blocker identified; rootCause class 'off-mission'; 'Sound reasoning applied to the wrong problem: solving "should I fire the signal" without solving "can I execute it given curren

Swing-Nikita CLAUDE.md: (1) add pre-execution position check (if sNVDA_held < signal_size, error/skip), (2) pre-position sNVDA TODAY before market close (before ~20:00 UTC 06-10) OR reduce signal size to match current holdings. Otherwise signal fires with zero position → guarante

Vulture-Andrew saturation (28 deals, $5.07/5h burn, sAAPL 0.39% from floor) cascading starvation to 3+ agents

Vulture-Andrew now fleet's primary Swap maker after LP-Maker offline 681m. Current load: 28 settled deals, $5.07/5h burn rate, sAAPL position 0.39% from equity floor (risk trigger). Watcher ARMED (nextFallbackMin=5 = resting, pidAlive=true = alive, NOT dead) but at fallback saturation. Rebalancer-Lior intents #669/#670 unfilled 60m+; Momentum-Nikita intent #741 expired zero fills; Stacker-Massimo 2 fills in 18 wakes (churn); Arb-Hunter-

Vulture badge 'FLOOR CRISIS'; 28 settled deals vs LP-Maker's pre-outage 64; Vulture's deal breakdown: 16 vs LP-Maker, 4 vs 0xBd6a…9863, 1 vs Arb-Hunter-Tom; burn $5.07/5h; sAAPL 0.39% from floor per Step 1; Rebalancer #669/#670 posted 19:55

Priority 1: Fix core armWatcher bug (LP-Maker), ETA 1–2h. Monitor Vulture saturation post-recovery; expected drop as LP-Maker re-absorbs Swap hub load. If saturation persists post-recovery, deploy secondary maker (Index-Maker once deployed + tuned) or increase Vulture burn capaci

Bear-Yosher watcher race condition (myOpenIntents bug) creating 2–3 duplicate posts per 5h

Simultaneous Intent-fill triggers in w25b & w26, and w29b & w30, due to myOpenIntents bug. Results: 4 BTC-BELOW bets (deals 80, 81, 82, 83) posted in 5-hour window against single counterparty Mimic-Ljuba. Wake logs document: 'wakes 25b and 26 both independently posted' (w27), 'Wake 29b and wake 30 both ran simultaneously' (w30). Unnecessary churn, rebalance inefficiency.

w26 posts deal 80 (BTC-BELOW), w27 posts deal 81 (BTC-BELOW), w29 posts deal 82 (BTC-BELOW), w29b posts deal 83 (BTC-BELOW); badge 'RACE CONDITION + CORE SNAPSHOT BUG'; Mimic-Ljuba summary notes 'simultaneous Intent-fill triggers'

Bear-Yosher wake script: (1) Serialize Intent-fill triggers with guard against simultaneous fires on same event, (2) Check myOpenIntents.BTC_BELOW count before repost. Single highest-value change: add `if (count(myOpenIntents.BTC_BELOW) > 1) { skip } else { post }` guard in trigg

Option-Taker-Matheus waiting indefinitely (zero Option supply, counterparty offline)

Option-Writer-Matheus offline 665m (core armWatcher bug). Option-Taker correctly idle, watcher armed, fallback firing every 2h as designed. Last 8 consecutive wakes (w7–w14, ending 481m ago) scanned book and found zero audited Option intents. This is supply-side starvation (counterparty offline), not agent reasoning fault. Will execute immediately once core SDK fix restores Option-Writer.

Option-Taker rootCause class 'counterparty-starved'; 8 consecutive wakes (w7–w14) found zero audited Options; Option-Writer-Matheus: watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, offline 665m, last wake w26 15:49 UTC; reliableCounterparties=0

Once core SDK fix restores Option-Writer watchers (ETA 1–2h), bootstrap Option-Writer with at least 2 audited Option intents immediately. Option-Taker will then fill within next 2h fallback cycle.

Arb-Hunter-Tom fill rate 2% (2 settled / 100 wakes) — market-side, not agent reasoning

Agent awakens every 7.8 seconds (100 wakes in 13 min) with disciplined margin/expiry checks; zero logic loops. Fill rate 2% because book intents have margins below 0.5% take threshold. w95 shows intent #734 at 0.019% margin (needs $296 of BTC depth to cross 0.5% threshold). Root cause: LP-Maker offline 681m removes deep quote source; thin book margins compressed. NOT agent reasoning fault.

Arb-Hunter 100 wakes, 2 settled deals = 2% fill; w95 #734 margin 0.019% vs 0.5% take bar; rootCause 'counterparty-starved': 'LP-Maker (primary deep quote source) offline 681m'; reliableCounterparties=1 (Vulture-Andrew, but saturated)

Restore LP-Maker (core SDK fix, 1–2h ETA) to restore deep quote depth and book liquidity. Post-recovery, Arb-Hunter-Tom can lower margin threshold from 0.5% to 0.25% to increase fill rate once book depth returns.

FIX IMMEDIATELY (ETA 1–2h): Restore armWatcher promise-drop fix to SDK; re-deploy LP-Maker-Matheus and Option-Writer-Matheus watchers. Unblocks 4 agents directly (LP-Maker, Option-Writer, Option-Taker awaiting supply, Momentum-Nikita + Stacker-Massimo + Rebalancer-Lior + Arb-Hunt

URGENT (<6h, before market open 13:30 UTC): Swing-Nikita — add pre-execution position check before signal fires. If sNVDA_held < signal_size, error or skip trade. ALTERNATIVELY: pre-position sNVDA TODAY before market close (~20:00 UTC 06-10). Signal fires ~6h away with zero posit

POST-CORE-FIX: Bear-Yosher — add myOpenIntents.BTC_BELOW count guard in wake script: `if (count(myOpenIntents.BTC_BELOW) > 1) { skip post }`. Prevents w29b/w30 simultaneous-fire race condition (currently 4 posts in 5h, deals 80–83).

POST-CORE-FIX: Arb-Hunter-Tom — lower margin take threshold from 0.5% to 0.25% once LP-Maker restores deep quote depth (post SDK fix). Current 2% fill rate is market-side (thin book), not reasoning — gap disappears with deep quotes.

POST-CORE-FIX: Monitor Vulture-Andrew saturation post-LP-Maker-recovery. Expected: 28-deal load drops as LP-Maker re-absorbs Swap hub. If saturation persists, deploy secondary maker (Index-Maker once deployed + tuned) or increase Vulture burn capacity. Monitor sAAPL position (cur

LP-Maker outage worsening (681m vs 620m last run); core armWatcher promise-drop bug blocking 4 agents; Vulture-Andrew at fallback capacity (28 deals, sAAPL 0.39% from floor).

Core armWatcher promise-drop bug cascading: LP-Maker (681m offline), Option-Writer (665m offline), Index-Maker/Taker (never deployed) — 4 agents blocked

Vulture-Andrew fallback saturation: 28 deals, $5.07/5h burn, sAAPL 0.39% from floor — capacity ceiling cascading counterparty starvation to Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Rebalancer-Lior

Thin market liquidity: 5 open intents, 11.2% settlement conversion (84/749), LP-dependent; 3+ agents queued on LP revival

Swing-Nikita imminent execution failure: market-open sell signal fires 13:30 UTC TODAY (now +~6h) but zero sNVDA position held — trade will fail

Recently armed (12m last_wake, 19m fallback) — is it actively hunting latency arbs or resting? Reasoning quality and fill rate on recent wakes?

Is open intent (4 USDC → 2.666 USDC, 27m left) Bear's own posting? Confirm Mimic-Ljuba still primary (8/9 recent deals) or mission shifted?

Core armWatcher promise-drop confirmed sole blocker for deployment, or separate initialization issue preventing first wake?

Same as Index-Maker — core bug sole blocker or distinct deploy issue? No on-chain IndexBasket intents exist to take.

Confirm armWatcher promise-drop root cause of 681m outage (worsening from 620m); estimate core fix ETA; fleet load post-revival?

Intent #734 (BTC <$61.5k, unfilled) — why is Bear-Yosher (primary, 10/12 settled deals) not taking? Rate, expiry window, or priority shift?

Intent #741 ($51.25 USDC→25 SSV, 435m left) posted 48m ago — fill likelihood given LP offline + Vulture at capacity? Expiry/counterparty risk?

Option-Writer-Matheus sole viable counterparty? Monitor revival ETA; any other Option writers in mission scope?

Confirm armWatcher promise-drop 665m root cause; core fix ETA? 13 deals pre-outage, ready to resume immediately on revival.

New Polymarket rates or book flow since 351m-ago wake? sAAPL position stable at 25% equity cap ($24.99)?

Intents #669/#670 expired due to LP offline — can pivot to Vulture-Andrew, or LP-only mission design constraint?

Intent #686 (sNVDA UP 0.25 USDC) unfilled 7h+ — can pivot to Vulture or alternative takers, or LP-only DCA requirement? Expiry risk?

CRITICAL: Market-open sell signal fires 13:30 UTC TODAY (~6h) but zero sNVDA position held — acquire before open or disable signal (trade will fail without position)?

Managing 28 deals + sAAPL floor breach (0.39% away) — margin capacity remaining before hit ceiling? Rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 unfilled 60m+, why no self-takers?

Fix armWatcher promise-drop bug: LP-Maker (681m offline), Option-Writer (665m offline), Index-Maker/Taker (never deployed) — 4 agents blocked, cascading.

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus (primary liquidity hub, 681m down, worsening); post-revival, monitor Vulture-Andrew fallback capacity saturation.

Vulture-Andrew ceiling risk: 28 deals, $5.07/5h burn, sAAPL at floor — fallback maker saturation cascading counterparty starvation to queued agents.

Swing-Nikita: Acquire sNVDA position before 13:30 UTC TODAY market open, or disable sell signal immediately — trade will fail without position.

Post-LP-revival queue rebalancing: Momentum-Nikita (intent #741 unfilled), Stacker-Massimo (intent #686 unfilled 7h+), Rebalancer-Lior (intents #669/#670 expired) waiting on LP revival.