Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary within 30-min window. No swap edge ≥10bps. BTC oracle has caught up and overshot CEX — no BTC edge either dire

Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials

wakes_failing=true, wake_error='launch-wake exited 1'; fleet-wide regression: same error on lp-maker-matheus (post-w227, 139+ min), rebalancer-lior (wakes_failing=true prior summary). W359 partial execution (deal 204, settled atomically) proves trade logic reaches and completes execution — exit-1 is

Swap edge >= 5bps vs CEX (Coinbase ETH/BTC, Binance SSV)

Binary near expiry (<=30min) with CEX margin >= 0.5%

HWM gate (HWM=2732) to skip replayed intents

SKIP_POSTERS filter for 0x8121… poison poster

MISSING: no explicit drain-trigger for LP-Maker resting intents specifically — relies on normal poll cadence to discover remaining 11 pre-break intents

22/25 recent deals; primary ETH/BTC/mBTC swap liquidity source — deal 204 was against its pre-break resting mBTC intent

BROKEN 139+ min (launch-wake exit 1 sinc

2 recent deals; posts baited intents arb-hunter can pick off

pidAlive=false recurring, gap-protect co

1 recent deal (swap); occasionally posts takeable delivered swaps

Dual-surface: fires on both swap edge (>=5bps CEX-vs-implied) and binary near-expiry (>=0.5% CEX margin) — correct for a pure-taker latency-arb mission

SKIP_POSTERS set with known-poison poster address — prevents repeat acceptIntent reverts

HWM tracking avoids re-scanning exhausted intents

Case A + Case B swap-edge logic handles both directions (buy-cheap-crypto and sell-crypto-at-stale-high)

Zero-LLM watcher with armed fallback at 2min — correct cadence for an opportunistic taker

No startup probe to isolate where exit-1 fires (module load? CEX fetch? post-trade wrap?) — narrows the platform regression diagnosis

Primary counterparty LP-Maker broken; resting-intent pipeline draining

22 of 25 recent arb-hunter deals were vs LP-Maker-Matheus. LP-Maker broken 139+ min; ~11 pre-break resting intents remain. Arb-hunter drained 1 in w359 (mBTC +406bps). Without LP-Maker recovery or a new liquid maker, deal flow stops when these expire.

Resolving the launch-wake exit-1 regression (same root) restores LP-Maker, which immediately re-supplies arb-hunter's pipeline. No agent-specific change needed.

Bear-Yosher

metrics.wake_error and watcher.wakeError both = 'launch-wake exited 1'; regression onset ~18:00Z matches fleet-wide pattern (arb-hunter-tom post-w358, lp-maker-matheus post-w227/18:05Z); w68 at 19:00Z was last coherent wake, wakes_failing=true thereafter

intent 2799 resolved (filled or TTL ~20:00Z)

BTC +1.5% adverse from baseline $66,845 → $67,877

new aligned BTC binary posted with ≥1.5% cushion (isAbove=true, BTC < strike * 0.985)

4h fallback (~23:00Z, nextFallbackMin=239)

MISSING: all triggers will fire into broken launch-wake binary until platform regression is fixed

3 of 4 detailed recent deals are with Mimic-Ljuba (custom live BTC binary); primary counterparty

1 settled deal; actively prices BTC binaries vs Polymarket distribution — could fill 2799 if cushion looks mispriced

takes near-decided binaries on fast CEX feed; 2799 at 1.41% cushion not yet near-decided but could be approached if BTC dips

46 deals, picks off near-sure-win binaries; 2799 could become attractive if BTC approaches $65,900

Monitors exact anchor intent 2799 on fill OR TTL expiry — mission requires immediate re-post on either event

BTC adverse +1.5% guard from tracked baseline $66,845 — directly implements the 'halt if crypto climbs' clause

Scans for aligned BTC binaries (hash + underlying=BTC + isAbove=true + ≥1.5% cushion) — enables taker-first posture correctly

4h fallback with deadline-bounded 60s poll loop — appropriate cadence for a patient conviction agent

isAlignedBTCBet logic is precise and well-guarded (hash check prevents hash-collision false positives)

No ETH adverse-move guard — mission includes 'ETH HALT' posture; an ETH surge while BTC is flat would not trigger a wake

Fallback at ~23:00Z will fire into a broken launch-wake binary — irrelevant until platform regression resolved

ETH adverse-move not guarded in watcher

Mission explicitly covers 'ETH HALT' when crypto climbs persistently >2%. Wake script guards only BTC (+1.5%). An ETH surge while BTC is flat would not trigger a re-evaluation wake.

Add ETH readPrice check in runWatchLoop with a tracked ETH_BASELINE; fireWake on ETH +2% adverse move, mirroring the BTC guard pattern already in the script.

Index-Maker

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes — agent container/process never initialized across all 58 observed cycles. Not a runtime failure; a deployment gap.

MISSING: no wake script deployed (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

MISSING: no process alive to arm a watcher

index-taker's sole mission is to take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — exact structural counterparty to index-maker

also never deployed (58 consecutive null

No wake script exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing to evaluate

No watcher process, no fallback, no trigger of any kind

Agent never deployed — 58 consecutive null cycles

index-maker has armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes across every observed cycle. It has never run. Its counterparty index-taker is in the identical state. The IndexBasket market does not exist because neither side has ever been launched.

Make the decommission-or-deploy decision now: either remove both index-maker and index-taker from the roster, or deploy them with their wake scripts and fund their wallets. Continued null cycles cost nothing but consume observer bandwidth and obscure the real fleet status.

Index-Taker

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null across all 58 cycles; 0 lifetime wakes; no error state — agent was never deployed

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher armed, no fallback scheduled

sole natural counterparty — posts LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of

unknown health, also dormant per fleet r

No wake script exists at all (wake_script_source=null)

No watcher armed, no fallback, no trigger of any kind

Never deployed — decommission-or-deploy decision overdue

58 consecutive null cycles, 0 wakes, 0 spend. No wake script, no watcher, no PID. The agent occupies a roster slot and contributes nothing. Its only counterparty (index-maker) is also dormant. The IndexBasket market cannot clear without both sides live simultaneously.

Decision required: (a) deploy index-taker alongside index-maker with a coordinated launch so both sides of the market exist at once, or (b) decommission both and remove from roster. Leaving both in limbo consumes attention each cycle for zero signal.

LP-Maker-Matheus

USDC $718 idle with <$30 in crypto/stocks violates the mission's balanced-inventory mandate; tiny bids can't attract sel

PREFIRE 20:25Z (cluster exp ~20:35Z) / inversion guard / new fillable intent; fallback 20:40Z

'launch-wake exited 1' on every wake attempt after w230 (18:57Z); PREFIRE at 19:26Z and fallback at 19:55Z both already fired and failed; 12 intents posted 18:57Z with main-cluster expiry ~19:41Z now expired; book dark ~45 min; PnL flat at -$28.27 confirms no new fills since expiry; platform regress

PREFIRE at 19:26Z (29 min ahead of main cluster expiry ~19:41Z) — already fired and failed

ETH ask guard: oracle >= $1835 (ask #2786 inversion risk)

Fallback at 19:55Z (58 min from arming) — already fired and failed; next fallback in 53 min

MISSING: no circuit-breaker for consecutive launch-wake failures — watcher re-arms each time without detecting the binary is broken

Primary taker, 28/37 (76%) of recent settled swaps — but also broken with launch-wake exited 1, so unavailable until binary restored

BROKEN – launch-wake exited 1, same plat

6/37 (16%) recent deals — actively takes swap liquidity for portfolio rebalancing

health=stuck, but was taking swaps recen

4/37 (11%) recent deals — systematic sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT taker, exact match for LP's stock quotes

health=stuck; most reliable non-broken c

3/37 (8%) recent deals — opportunistic, takes mispriced swaps; pidAlive=false recurring issue

health=stuck, pidAlive historically unst

PREFIRE at 19:26Z timed precisely 15 min before main-cluster expiry ~19:41Z — prevents book darkness proactively

ETH ask guard ($1835) fires on oracle inversion risk for the specific live intent (#2786) — not generic

Fill watch via newMatches() on open intents with HOLD-set filter — fires only on actionable fills

Zero-LLM poll loop with 60s interval and proper PID recording

58-min fallback is appropriate for an LP that must keep quotes live

No detection of repeated launch-wake failures — watcher re-arms indefinitely against a broken binary without escalating or alerting

PREFIRE at 19:26Z and fallback at 19:55Z already exhausted; watcher now on a bare 53-min fallback with no intent-expiry anchor (intents already expired ~19:41Z)

launch-wake binary exits 1 fleet-wide

Book dark since ~19:41Z — 12 intents expired unrefreshed

Main cluster posted at 18:57Z (w230) had expiry ~19:41Z per PREFIRE timing; binary failure prevented the 19:26Z PREFIRE from refreshing them; book has been quote-less ~45 min costing fills from Stacker-Massimo and Option-Writer-Matheus

Self-heals on binary fix — first successful wake will cancel expired intents and post fresh 12/12. No agent-side config change needed, but the circuit-breaker suggestion above would surface this faster.

Mimic-Ljuba

Board assessment: #1827 sMSFT below $420 = −10pp taker edge (oracle already $21.45 below strike, taker needs +5.45% move

launch-wake exited 1 — confirmed fleet-wide on arb-hunter-tom (post-w358/~18:00Z), lp-maker-matheus (since w227/18:05Z, 139+ min), and now mimic-ljuba (post-w114/23:20Z, 68+ min); watcher armed+pidAlive=true but binary can't execute

new BinaryBet where cost-implied taker prob < 47% (~≥3pp edge heuristic)

Monday 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z market open (hardcoded)

4h fallback (coded in armWatcher fallbackMs, but nextFallbackMin=null — NOT registered)

MISSING: deal-settlement event trigger (deals #192/#197 settling should prompt a reassess, but nothing fires on close)

All 3 recent settled deals are Bear↔Mimic (custom live × 2, custom settled × 1); Bear posts BTC/ETH directional binaries that mimic's copy-t

stuck — bear-yosher health=stuck in flee

Writes BinaryBets as part of its 70/30 engine; mimic could be a taker, but no prior deals on record

Edge-filtered BinaryBet polling (cost-implied < 47% heuristic) avoids noise and aligns with the ≥3pp floor the agent enforces in its reasoning

Market-open trigger for Monday 13:30Z is mission-appropriate for stock instruments (sNVDA)

4h fallback coded — correct cadence for a patient copy-trader that thinks in hours not minutes

nextFallbackMin=null: the 4h fallback in armWatcher() did not register — the safety-net timed re-wake is absent even if the binary recovers

No settlement-event trigger: when deals #192/#197 close, the agent has no automatic prompt to reassess the board and repost

nextFallbackMin=null — 4h fallback not registering

Wake script calls armWatcher({fallbackMs: 4 * 3600_000}) but watcher reports nextFallbackMin=null. Once binary is fixed, if no new BinaryBet fires the edge filter and the Monday open has passed, the agent has no timed re-wake.

Debug armWatcher() registration in wake-watch.js SDK; ensure fallbackMs durably sets nextFallbackMin so the watcher always has a scheduled fire time

Momentum-Nikita

lp-maker-matheus (hub, 153 deals) broken since w227/18:05Z (139+ min); arb-hunter-tom broken post-w358. Intent #2653 open 269 min with 0 takers. 60s polls confirm it's live but uncrossed.

intent #2653 resolves (ownIntentResolved check every 60s)

momentum gap ≥2pp leader-vs-next-best in market-hours-aware universe (every 60s)

8h fallback at ~22:36Z (nextFallbackMin=220)

Primary swap LP, 153 deals, would naturally fill a USDC→ETH bid

Fast taker, 43 deals, targets oracle-lag swaps

Takes mispriced swaps; would need bid to be clearly favorable vs oracle

SUSPECT — recurring pidAlive=false cycle

Could take ETH if it needed to rebalance toward ETH; mission-dependent

Prior wakes_failing=true per Step-1; lik

60s poll cadence — not sub-minute, not sparse for a bid that can fill any time

Market-hours-aware universe: crypto-only after 20:00 UTC prevents phantom stock divergence

ownIntentResolved check on every tick — agent wakes the moment the bid clears

Dynamic baseline captured on first poll of this watcher instance (correct: measures momentum SINCE this wake, not since epoch)

Zero LLM in watcher; 8h fallback synchronized with intent TTL

No stale-bid guard: if ETH has drifted significantly above $1,830 since W49, the bid is below market — the watcher won't self-trigger on price staleness, only o

Fleet-wide binary regression starving intent #2653

lp-maker-matheus (primary USDC→ETH LP) and arb-hunter-tom (primary fast taker) are both broken by the 'launch-wake exited 1' platform regression. With 0 reliable counterparties, any well-priced bid sits unfilled regardless of agent quality.

Restore lp-maker-matheus and arb-hunter-tom — the platform binary regression fix is the unlock. No agent-level change will produce a deal while the hub LP is down.

No mid-window stale-bid reprice trigger

Intent #2653 locked at ~$1,830 implied. ETH has been rising (W47→W49: $1,794→$1,830+). If ETH moves to, say, $1,860, the bid is 1.6% below market; no taker will fill it, and the watcher won't trigger until the 8h fallback. Agent burns 8h TTL on a sub-market bid.

Add staleness fireWake in the poll loop: if readPrice ETH > (locked_usdc / locked_eth) * 1.005, fire and reprice. One line in the gap-check block.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Pattern continues from wakes 36-38: option writers are either dormant or deploying on non-audited templates. No edge cle

new audited Option intent (template 0xb3d66f4b...) OR 6h fallback

w36–w39 all report 'zero audited Option intents; only Swaps, BinaryBets, non-Option templates'; option-writer-matheus sNVDA call (0x57F8…B0ff) uses a different templateHash than 0xb3d66f4b; 0 deals since w35; 5 lifetime deals, $26.81 realized PnL all predating the hash drift

new audited Option intent with templateHash=0xb3d66f4b appears on book (primary trigger)

6h fallback — nextFallbackMin=44 (next fallback ~19:49Z)

MISSING: any Option intent with a different-but-audited hash — watcher is hash-specific and permanently blind to option-writer-matheus's current deployed templa

sole option-writing counterparty, 26 lifetime deals; posts ETH/BTC/stock options — but current deployed template hash does not match 0xb3d66

health=stuck; intents live on book but e

Fires only on NEW audited Option intents via baseline-then-newMatches — avoids re-evaluating stale inventory on every poll cycle

6h fallback ensures periodic scan even in a dry book; watcher is zero-LLM with a clear two-field predicate

PID file written for manual stop; clean arm/loop separation

AUDITED_OPTION_HASH hardcoded — if option-writer-matheus redeploys on a new template, watcher goes permanently silent with no alert; the drought looks identical

No logging when kind=Option intent appears with a non-matching hash — the hash mismatch was only discovered by external forensics, not surfaced by the agent its

Template hash mismatch with option-writer-matheus — watcher blind to live supply

option-taker-matheus watches for templateHash=0xb3d66f4b; option-writer-matheus's current intents (e.g., sNVDA call 0x57F8…B0ff) use a different hash. Watcher never fires; agent has been dry since w35 (estimated ~14h). 0 compatible intents in 4 consecutive wakes.

Coordinate: update AUDITED_OPTION_HASH in current.ts to match option-writer-matheus's active deployed template hash, OR have option-writer-matheus redeploy on 0xb3d66f4b. Treat as urgent — every fallback wake until this is resolved burns $0.15 LLM tokens for zero action.

Hash-drift is silent — watcher indistinguishable from empty book

When option-writer-matheus posts Options on a non-matching hash, the watcher sees 'zero audited Options' — identical to a genuinely empty book. No alert, no log. Diagnosis required external fleet forensics rather than agent self-report.

Add detection branch in runWatchLoop: if intents include kind=Option && templateHash !== AUDITED_OPTION_HASH, write to /agent/data/wake/hash_drift.log with the mismatched hash — makes the problem self-diagnosing.

Option-Writer-Matheus

wakes_failing=true, wake_error='launch-wake exited 1' — same string as arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (since w227/~18:05Z); regression onset overlaps. Secondary: LP-Maker-Matheus broken 139+ min removes the counterparty behind 5 of 8 recent settled deals.

intent 0x...aee (sMSFT buy at +1.0% oracle) resolves — polls every 30s

64-min fallback (~58 min remaining at observation time)

Primary counterparty — 5 of 8 recent settled deals; holds deep sMSFT/sNVDA inventory at oracle mid

BROKEN — wakes_failing since w227 (~18:0

2 of 8 recent deals; hunts mispriced swaps — +1.0% sMSFT buy is now better bait than w37's +0.51%

Takes sNVDA/sMSFT bids within ~1% of oracle — sNVDA sell at −0.10% and sMSFT buy at +1.0% are within range

Tracks specific live intent (0x...aee) resolution — fires immediately on fill or expiry, no wasted polling

30s cadence appropriate for a short-duration market-hour intent

64-min fallback covers market-close recheck

Does not track intent 2716 (sNVDA sell) — if it resolves before 0x...aee, agent won't wake until 64-min fallback

No early-exit guard if 0x...aee was already resolved at arm time — loop runs full fallback window

launch-wake exited 1 — fleet-wide binary regression, now on option-writer-matheus

wakes_failing=true, wake_error='launch-wake exited 1'. Confirmed identical error on arb-hunter-tom (post-w358), lp-maker-matheus (since w227), and now option-writer-matheus. Same string, ~18:00–18:05Z onset window. Platform regression, not agent-specific.

Restore claude binary / agent-entrypoint fleet-wide; per-agent CLAUDE.md edits won't help.

Wake script blind to intent 2716 (sNVDA sell)

Both 2716 and 0x...aee are open. If 2716 resolves first (fill or expiry), the agent discovers it only when the 64-min fallback fires — up to ~58 min of lag.

Track both intent IDs in runWatchLoop: ownIntentResolved for 2716 alongside 0x...aee, fireWake on either.

Polymarket-Ljuba

5 settled deals total; taker opportunities require mispriced BinaryBet/Option appearing on the book — watcher's 60s scan has found none in 492 min since w58. Two resting maker binaries (#1827 0x0723, #1916 0x077c) await counterparty fill.

DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS: BTC>$64,900 expiry 5 min early (~10:32Z Jun16, ~15.5h out)

ownIntentResolved on #1827 (sMSFT<$420) or #1916 (sNVDA>$195)

new BinaryBet or Option intent appears on book (60s poll, newMatches)

MISSING: BTC price falls within threshold of $64,900 strike (no downside trip-wire in watcher)

settled 1 custom live binary — confirmed binary-direction counterparty

stuck/health unclear but not on exited-1

settled 1 swap (sAAPL exit liquidity at w55); only confirmed equity-exit counterparty

BROKEN — exited 1 regression, 139+ min o

natural option-writing counterparty for taker mission; writes ETH/BTC options

picks off maker binaries — could fill #1827 or #1916

pidAlive=false recurring; gap-protect co

Three independent fire paths: timed expiry wake (DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS, deterministic), own-intent-resolved poll (fills/expiry), and 60s new-intent scan (taker op

60s cadence is mission-appropriate: taker opportunities are time-sensitive; the scan found and acted on #2364 at w58 proving it works

24h fallback prevents sleeping past deal window; zero-LLM, deterministic conditions throughout

Sets `seen` baseline on first poll then only fires on net-new intents — avoids false triggers on stale book state

No BTC price monitoring: if BTC drifts toward $64,900 in the ~15.5h window before the timed wake, the agent can't reassess early settle or hedge

newMatches fires on first new intent only per iteration; a burst of simultaneous new intents triggers one wake — minor, agent rescans immediately on next wake

No underlying-price trip-wire for deal #190

Watcher fires on expiry time, book events, and intent resolution — but does not poll BTC price. A drawdown from ~$66,264 toward $64,900 over the 15.5h window would go undetected; agent wakes at 10:32Z regardless of BTC trajectory. Cushion was $1,364 at last summary but is unverified since.

In the 60s runWatchLoop, add: const btc = await belt.tools.readOracle?.run('BTC'); if (btc?.price < 66400) fireWake('BTC cushion on deal #190 narrowing — reassess'); adjust threshold to ~1.5% above strike.

LP-Maker-Matheus broken — equity-exit liquidity at risk for future positions

LP-Maker is the only confirmed swap counterparty (sAAPL exit, w55). LP is in the exited-1 regression (139+ min broken). Agent holds no equity now so immediate impact is zero, but a re-entry into equity before LP recovers would face thin exit liquidity.

No action now; if agent re-acquires equity while LP is down, widen oracle-mid slippage tolerance or route via vulture-andrew as primary exit counterparty.

Rebalancer-Lior

wake_error='launch-wake exited 1' is identical to arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (since w227) — same platform regression, 3rd confirmed instance. Agent successfully traded through w58 (19:12Z) before regression hardened; 17 deals + $5.66 realized PnL from prior healthy operation.

ownIntentResolved: ETH→sAAPL #2762 fills or expires (~19:59Z, ~17 min)

newMatches: new sAAPL seller appears on open book (opportunistic taker path)

90-min fallback (81 min remaining, fires ~21:03Z)

1 settled swap directly with Arb-Hunter-Tom in history; natural taker for patient DCA swaps

BROKEN — same launch-wake regression pos

LP hub with deep sAAPL inventory; natural counterparty for ETH→sAAPL #2762; w56 shows rebalancer tried to audit LP template but fetch-source

BROKEN — launch-wake regression since w2

External address in settled deals; not on roster, likely a human wallet or external bot

Primary trigger: ownIntentResolved for #2762 — exactly right for a patient poster; wakes the moment the outstanding leg clears

Secondary trigger: new sAAPL seller on book — enables opportunistic taker path without waiting for full fallback, well-suited to DCA mission

90-min fallback at 60s poll cadence — appropriate patience for a DCA agent; not over-polling

Zero-LLM, writes PID, armed with fallback — structurally sound watcher

No pre-loop resolved check for #2762 before entering runWatchLoop — if #2762 fills in the gap between w58 and watcher arm, the agent catches it only after the f

Platform regression: launch-wake exited 1 — confirmed 3rd agent (rebalancer-lior)

rebalancer-lior joins arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (since w227) with identical 'launch-wake exited 1' wake_error. Watcher is alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true) but every claude binary invocation fails at entry. Intent #2762 expires ~19:59Z (~17 min); the watcher will fire on expiry

Fix the platform binary regression (same root cause as arb-hunter-tom/lp-maker-matheus). Once resolved, rebalancer-lior recovers automatically: watcher fires on #2762 expiry/fill or 81-min fallback, agent assesses sAAPL gap and acts.

Stacker-Massimo

Bid 2703 correctly priced at oracle+0.5% ($212.22), drift 0.33% under refresh threshold. No sNVDA sell-side present. Mis

bid 2703 fill/expiry | new LP-sized sNVDA sell ≥3 USDC | sNVDA oracle drift >0.5% | 45-min fallback

'launch-wake exited 1' fleet regression (same as arb-hunter-tom post-w358, lp-maker-matheus since w227); secondary: counterparty-starved — LP-Maker-Matheus broken since ~18:05Z, was responsible for 4 of 7 recent fills (deals into 2624, 2661, 2662-chain)

bid 2703 resolved (fill or expiry via ownIntentResolved)

sNVDA oracle drifts >0.5% from hardcoded post price $211.17

new LP-sized sNVDA sell intent (posterGives sNVDA, posterWants 3–12 USDC)

MISSING: LP-Maker broken → sell-side trigger will not fire; 45-min fallback is the sole active wake path until LP-Maker recovers or another agent posts sNVDA as

MISSING: sAAPL and sMSFT sell-side — mission covers all three symbols but watcher monitors only sNVDA

primary counterparty, 4/7 recent fills on sNVDA asks

BROKEN — launch-wake exited 1 since w227

2 historical fills; fades dislocations which can produce sNVDA sells

health=ok but no confirmed sNVDA sell ac

70/30 portfolio strategy may generate sNVDA swap asks

DCA rebalance may produce sNVDA sells when overweight

suspected wakes_failing=true (prior summ

Zero-LLM; three distinct triggers precisely aligned to mission actions (fill/expiry, drift, new sell-side)

Oracle base hardcoded to last post price $211.17 — drift measured against actual bid price, not a stale or abstract value

LP-sized sell filter (3–12 USDC posterWants) matches the lot sizes stacker itself posts, avoiding false triggers on retail micro-fills

45-min fallback prevents indefinite sleep when LP-Maker is dark

Only monitors sNVDA sell-side — mission is a three-symbol accumulator (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) but sAAPL and sMSFT sell opportunities never trigger a wake

Sell filter upper bound of 12 USDC may reject larger LP lots that could be partially taken per mission

launch-wake exited 1 — fleet-wide binary regression blocking all wakes

Same error as arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (since w227). Watcher is armed and PID alive but the claude entrypoint won't launch; wakes_failing=true. The 27-min fallback will fire but produce the same failure until the binary is fixed.

Fix the shared claude-code entrypoint regression (platform/deploy issue, not agent-specific). All three broken agents resume automatically once the binary launches cleanly.

Wake script covers sNVDA only — misses sAAPL/sMSFT sell-side opportunities

Mission explicitly targets all three tech equities but current.ts isSellOpportunity only matches sNVDA posterGives legs. Swing-nikita or option-writer-matheus posting sAAPL/sMSFT sells would not trigger a wake.

Replace the sNVDA-only symbol check with: i.legs.some((l) => l.role === 'posterGives' && ['sNVDA','sAAPL','sMSFT'].includes(l.symbol)) — one-line change, no other logic affected.

stale-state.json race (bug 2, w82) — did not recur; monitor pattern

The concurrent-session stale read at w82 (duplicate 2664, canceled tx 0x34c3e2a071a9cc87c80935459cf3367868edf57c) was correctly identified and the 'read state.json first' rule applied successfully at w83–w85. No immediate fix needed; if wake cadence increases (watcher fires + fallback overlap), add

No immediate action; flag for SDK-level atomic state.json handling if concurrent-wake scenarios increase.

Swing-Nikita

wakes_failing=true; launch-wake exited 1 post-w57; open_intents=0 (intents 2689+2713 both expired unfilled per w57 'consecutive unfilled expiries'); same error token as arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (w227+)

sNVDA spot ≤ $206.20 (buy-dip, trailing avg $209.34 × 0.985)

ETH spot ≤ $1760.55 (buy-dip, trailing avg $1787.36 × 0.985)

new resting sNVDA buyer intent appears in open intents

Sole proven sNVDA buyer — deals 200+202 both ↔ Stacker-Massimo; mission posts sNVDA bids near oracle+0.5%; the natural taker for swing-nikit

stuck; resting intents may exist but age

Deep USDC inventory, could fill sNVDA or ETH swaps near mid — but operates as maker not taker of dislocated sells

broken 139+ min (launch-wake exited 1, w

Correctly pivots to buy-dip triggers after churn guard — matches fade-both-ways mission; agent spent USDC to hold sNVDA, so buy-dip on ETH from USDC cash is the

New-sNVDA-buyer watcher fires on real counterparty flow (isSnvdaBuyer checks posterGives=USDC + posterWants=sNVDA), not on stale book state

3h fallback is appropriate — 'one slice per wake' mission thinks in hours, not minutes

Zero-LLM: price checks and intent scan only; can't spuriously fire on book non-empty

No sNVDA sell-strength re-arm trigger: if sNVDA re-dislocates above +1.5% threshold before the 3h fallback, the signal is missed until the clock expires

ETH buy-dip trigger fires at $1760.55 but the agent currently holds zero ETH — the path (USDC→ETH buy) should be confirmed navigable before treating it as an eq

launch-wake exited 1 — fleet-wide platform regression

Identical wake_error on swing-nikita, arb-hunter-tom (post-w358), and lp-maker-matheus (w227+); not usage-cap. Watcher processes are alive but the claude binary / entrypoint crashes on every wake attempt. All trading logic is moot until resolved.

Restore claude-code binary / agent-entrypoint at platform level; not agent-specific — same fix unblocks all three

No sell-strength re-arm trigger in post-churn-guard watcher

Current watch only triggers on buy-dip, new-buyer intent, or 3h fallback. If sNVDA re-dislocates above 1.5% threshold before 171 min, the sell signal is missed entirely.

Add sell-strength price check (sNVDA ≥ trailing_avg × 1.015, e.g. ≥ $212.50) in the runWatchLoop alongside existing buy-dip checks

Vulture-Andrew

sAAPL bait expired before watcher fallback (4-min gap). All baits too close to fallback. SSV inflation above 2.05% toler

25 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781563131; next poll 60s

wakes_failing=true, wakeError='launch-wake exited 1'; pidAlive=false; 3rd confirmed fleet instance alongside arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (since w227/18:05Z, 139+ min). Separate underlying issue: recurring watcher PID death (w224: '2h14m gap, baits expired silently') is agent-scop

new takeable edge ≥1% (excluding pre-seeded honeypots 779/836/869)

~5 min before soonest intent expiry (pre-expiry trigger)

check-my-quotes: quote erosion or undercut (cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: no self-heartbeat or watchdog to detect watcher PID death before the 2h fallback — creates silent-expiry gaps (2h14m gap confirmed w224)

3 of 7 recent swap deals — primary counterparty

BROKEN (launch-wake exited 1 since w227/

2 of 7 recent swap deals, binary/swap overlap

stuck — not confirmed broken, only relia

Three distinct fire triggers (edge ≥1%, pre-expiry ~5 min, quote erosion) are well-matched to vulture's dual bait+take strategy

Pre-seeded honeypot exclusion set (779/836/869) prevents repeat firing on confirmed refused intents

30s poll cadence appropriate for a book-watcher; 2h hard fallback provides coverage floor

Pre-expiry window of 5 min is shorter than observed watcher restart latency — the 2h14m PID-death gap (w224) meant baits at 16:16Z expired silently with no pre-

No watcher self-heartbeat or external watchdog — PID death is only discovered at next agent wake, not proactively

check-my-quotes stock-blind on sAAPL (confirmed w220, w227) — sAAPL bait erosion below floor goes unflagged

launch-wake exited 1 — fleet-wide binary regression (3rd confirmed instance)

vulture-andrew hit as of ~7 min ago; same error as arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (since 18:05Z). Fallback fires in 27 min and will also fail. The 6 live baits (expiry ~20:00Z) will expire silently if not resolved.

Fix claude binary / entrypoint regression platform-side. All three agents recover on next successful wake — no agent-level change needed.

Recurring watcher PID death — 8+ cycles, undiagnosed, no investigation

w224 confirmed 2h14m gap (watcher died ~15:44Z, baits expired silently ~16:16Z, discovered ~17:58Z). pidAlive=false recurringly across all prior cycles. No root-cause investigation visible in w214–w227 logs. Gap-protect compensates but leaves 2h+ coverage holes.

Diagnose why watcher PID dies (OOM in scan-edges? process supervisor misconfiguration? uncaught exception in runWatchLoop?). Add systemd restart policy or external watchdog so watcher auto-recovers without waiting 2h.

CMQ stock-blind on sAAPL — erosion below floor unflagged

check-my-quotes does not detect sAAPL bait price erosion (confirmed w220: 'CMQ missed it — known issue'; w227: 'cmq-stock-blind confirmed'). sAAPL baits drift below the 1.55% floor without a cancel trigger firing.

Extend check-my-quotes to cover sAAPL oracle feed, or add a dedicated sAAPL floor-check inline in the wake script alongside the existing CMQ call.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

PARTIAL · 14/14 agents

Identical wake_error string 'launch-wake exited 1' across all 9 agents; onset timestamps cluster 17:53–19:12Z; arb-hunter-tom w359 executed deal 204 atomically ($1.381 USDC) mid-regression, proving tr

10 of 16 recent settled deals involved LP-Maker-Matheus; its 12 intents expired ~19:41Z; PnL flat at -$28.27 since expiry; pidAlive=false; nextFallbackMin=40

0x57F8…B0ff sNVDA call in open book (1107+ min TTL, 0 takers); option-taker w36–w39 all report 'only Swaps, BinaryBets, non-Option templates'; 5 lifetime deals all pre-w35

w224 confirmed '2h14m gap, baits expired silently'; pidAlive=false across 8+ observed cycles; wakes_failing=true + pidAlive=false now compounding

11/14 agents: wakes FAILING — 401 auth

11 agent(s) are up (container + watcher alive) but EVERY wake fails — they look alive yet execute nothing. A 401 shared across the fleet ⇒ the active Claude credentials are invalid/expired: ONE auth incident, not 11 agent bugs. Affected: arb-hunter-tom, bear-yosher, lp-maker-matheus, mimic-ljuba, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, vulture-andrew.

Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials

Re-authenticate the active Claude account (claude login / token refresh), or fail the rotator over to a valid subscription.

Synthesis degraded — per-agent rollup

Fleet synthesis call failed; showing a deterministic rollup of 14 agent verdict(s) instead of a cross-agent read. The cross-agent reasons below may be STALE — trust the deterministic infra signal first.

Check observer logs for the claude failure detail (exit code + stdout/stderr head + elapsed).

launch-wake exit 1 platform regression — ≥3 agents broken

arb-hunter-tom (post-w358/17:53Z), lp-maker-matheus (post-w227/18:05Z, 139+ min), rebalancer-lior (wakes_failing=true prior summary). All share identical error string. W359's partial fill (deal 204 settled) proves the trade-execution module runs — exit-1 is in the shared launch-wake entrypoint wrapp

Audit the shared launch-wake entrypoint for a change deployed ~17:50–18:05Z. Check if a claude-code binary update, a shared SDK module import, or an init hook broke around that window. W359 partial execution narrows the break to outside the core acceptSwap call path.

launch-wake exited 1 — fleet-wide platform binary regression

wakes_failing=true on bear-yosher (post-w68/~19:00Z), arb-hunter-tom (post-w358/~18:00Z), lp-maker-matheus (post-w227/18:05Z, 139+ min), rebalancer-lior (prior_summary truncated at wakes_failing=true) — ≥3 confirmed, likely 4. Single platform regression, not per-agent failures. Watcher processes sur

Diagnose and restore the launch-wake binary / agent-entrypoint fleet-wide — a single platform fix unblocks all affected agents simultaneously. Check for a bad claude-code release or broken PATH since ~18:00Z.

launch-wake binary exits 1 fleet-wide

'launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)' on every wake attempt after w230 (18:57Z); same error confirmed on arb-hunter-tom post-w358; rebalancer-lior prior summary truncated at wakes_failing=true — at least 3 agents affected pointing to one platform regression, not per-agent misconfiguration

Identify what changed in the launch-wake entrypoint between ~18:57Z and now (binary update, PATH change, missing dependency) and roll back or patch; once resolved, all three agents will self-recover on next fallback fire

wakes_failing=true; same error as arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (since w227, 139+ min). Three agents down on identical entrypoint failure = platform regression, not per-agent fault.

Fix the claude binary / agent-entrypoint at platform level; this is not mimic-ljuba's CLAUDE.md or wake-script issue

Fix the claude binary / agent-entrypoint at platform level; this is not mimic-ljuba's CLAUDE.md or wake-script issue

claude exit 1 (model claude-sonnet-4-6, 3190ms, prompt 31224b, stdout 74b, stderr 0b) stdout: Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials (after 3 tries)