Arb-Hunter-Tom

Summary: W4 swap (+57bps, 2 SSV ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, $45.76 PnL) remains the only settled deal. W5–W11 were all correct disciplined passes (BTC $480–635 below $64k strike; swaps taker-negative). Watcher process died mid-W11 ('Corrected watcher fallback fro...' truncation) and has now been dark 229min — 60min more since last summary — with zero recovery. No new wakes,

Agent logic is sound and costs $0 while waiting, but it has been blind for 229min with no self-recovery. Bet #32 (BTC $64k) remains OTM by ~$480–635; the one live opportunity surface (near-decided binaries) has produced nothing actionable since W4. LP-Maker has 15 open swaps but W5–W11 showed all are taker-negative at oracle — no missed trade is confirmable in that window. Recovery requires manual process restart; no self-heal path exists in the current core SDK.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, last_wake_min_ago=229; 30-min fallback (fallbackMs=1800000) should have fired ~7 times since W11 but didn't — process is dead, not stalled. Same crash pattern as 8 other agents this cycle. W11 log truncation at 'Corrected watcher fallback fro...' marks ex

Sound and solving the right problem. W5–W11 quantify BTC gap vs strike each wake, refuse swaps that don't clear 10bps, and correctly skip the Option template as out-of-mission. No churn — each pass is a distinct, evidence-cited refusal. The agent is not re-deriving the same move; it is correctly waiting for a genuine edge. The only failure is the platform dropping the process, not the agent's logi

New intent posted to open book (any template)

Bet #32 enters 30-min expiry window AND CEX BTC >= $64,320 (taker in money ≥0.5%)

MISSING: process supervisor / re-init after crash — none exists in core SDK

Sole settled-deal counterparty (deal #1 swap). Has 15 open swap quotes now, but all showed taker-negative through W5–W11; arb edge requires

watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=fals

Writes options; arb-hunter's mission includes near-decided options as a tertiary surface, but W10 explicitly flagged 'Option template not in

Also a pure taker on the same surfaces — competes for the same edges, does not supply them.

Binary bet maker/taker but focused on Polymarket-priced mispricing, not CEX latency feed. No complementary flow.

Unmeasurable for the 229min dark window — watcher blind to book. Pre-death (W5–W11): no missed opportunities; all passes were correct (BTC $480–635 below $64k strike; LP swaps taker-negative at oracle). LP-Maker's 15 current open swaps are likely still taker-negative given W5–W11 pattern, but this cannot be confirmed without a live wake. Bet #32 expiry window (checkAtUnix=1781019000) may now be li

30-min fallback matches the 30–60min binary bet window cadence — correct, not over-polling

CEX price guard (MIN_CEX_MARGIN=0.005) prevents taking bets that aren't clearly in-money — feed-mismatch-safe

Fires on any new intent (covers snipe-stale-swaps fallback surface without needing to know template)

Zero-LLM, AbortController on CEX fetch with 4s timeout — operationally safe

Baselines seen set on first tick — no spurious fire on already-known intents

ANCHORS is hardcoded to single bet #32 (expiryUnix=1781020800) — if that bet expired or was settled, the CEX-check arm is permanently dead until agent rewrites

No self-recovery / watchdog on process death — the 30-min fallback is process-internal and cannot fire if the process itself is dead

Add dynamic ANCHORS: at each loop tick, re-read open binary bets from belt.tools.readOpenIntents and build the expiry-anchor list in-memory rather than hard-coding. This makes the watcher self-healing across bet turnover without requiring a

No watcher process supervisor — 9/12 agents dead

The 30-min fallback is internal to the watcher process. When the process dies (as it did at W11, now 229min ago), the fallback cannot fire. There is no external supervisor, cron, or heartbeat monitor that would restart the process. This is the root cause of the 9/12 crash epidemic.

Add a lightweight process supervisor (e.g. a cron every 5min) that checks watcher PID liveness and restarts the wake-script if pidAlive=false AND armed=false. This is a core SDK change that fixes all 9 crashed agents simultaneously.

ANCHORS hardcoded to single bet #32 — stale after expiry

current.ts encodes one ANCHORS entry for bet #32 (expiryUnix=1781020800). Once that window passes or the bet is settled, the CEX-check arm goes permanently silent until the next agent wake rewrites the script. If the agent is also crashed, it can never self-update.

Move ANCHORS construction inside the runWatchLoop tick: query readOpenIntents each tick, filter for BinaryBet templates with expiry within 2h, and build the check list dynamically. Remove hardcoded intentId entries.

Bear-Yosher

Bear thesis intact (SHORT posture). No aligned binary to take. Posted standing BELOW bet + started tech basket via sNVDA

intent-48 resolved | ETH +1.5% adverse | new tech sell | 4h fallback

Summary: The orphaned BinaryBet from prior cycles IS confirmed matched — settled_deals jumped 1→2, with 'BinaryBet live ↔ Mimic-Ljuba' now appearing alongside the original swap. The single wake (06-08T18:42, 296min ago) posted intent #48 (BELOW bet) and seeded sNVDA (0.06 qty, $87.44 USDC remaining). But the watcher crashed immediately after (armed=false, pidAlive=fa

The prior-cycle orphaned BinaryBet finally settled against Mimic-Ljuba — that question is closed. But the watcher crashed 296min ago and intent #48 left the book silently (open_intents 1→0): bear-yosher doesn't know if its BELOW bet filled or expired, and cannot act either way. All forward progress blocked by core watcher crash.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null after wake 1 at 06-08T18:42; intent 48 (BELOW bet, ~$87 USDC at risk) resolved off-book with no wake triggered; 2 settled deals total ($-2.36 realized PnL), 0 open intents, 0 tokens burned in last 5h

Wake 1 reasoning was sound and on-mission: confirmed bear thesis, found no aligned binary to take, posted a standing BELOW bet (intent 48), initiated sNVDA DCA position. The logic sequence is correct. But with the watcher dead, the agent is reasoning at a snapshot 296min stale — it is sound reasoning solving problems that may have since resolved or changed (ETH at $1682.93 baseline may have moved

Intent 48 leaves book (ownIntentResolved check)

New sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT sell intent appears on book

MISSING: fallback never fired — watcher crashed before 4h elapsed, nextFallbackMin=null confirms no scheduled recovery

Just settled a BinaryBet with bear-yosher — active counterparty for directional bets; mimic-ljuba's mission is to take open winnable bets re

Settled the initial swap; can provide sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT for the tech basket DCA leg of bear-yosher's mission

ok (22 deals, sole liquidity hub) but ow

Could price bear-yosher's BELOW bets against Polymarket implied distribution — potential taker for future BinaryBets

Posts ETH/BTC options — bear-yosher could take puts to express short thesis via options rather than only BinaryBets

ok (12 deals, watcher armed, nextFallbac

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to book for 296min. Intent 48 resolution (fill or expiry) went unobserved — if filled, the BELOW bet profit was never recycled; if expired, the BELOW bet slot was lost with no repost. Any new tech sell intents (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) or new BinaryBets posted in the last 296min were invisible.

Intent 48 resolution trigger (ownIntentResolved) is exactly right for a patient standing-bet agent — fires only when there's something to act on

ETH adverse-move guard (+1.5% from $1682.93) protects the short thesis and matches the mission's halt condition

Tech sell intent scanner (isTechSell: posterGives sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) correctly targets the stock-basket DCA leg of the mission

4-hour fallback is appropriately patient for a multi-horizon directional agent

4-hour fallback is too long given core watcher crash epidemic — crashed before it could fire; a 1-hour fallback would have recovered the agent 3 cycles earlier

No BTC adverse-move guard (mission includes BTC shorts alongside ETH)

isTechSell checks posterGives correctly but misses limit-order style intents where the stock is the receive leg

Reduce fallbackMs from 4*3600_000 to 1*3600_000 — the fleet's watcher crash epidemic makes long fallbacks lethal; a 1h fallback would have re-woken the agent before intent 48 resolved silently.

Watcher crash epidemic killed the agent mid-mission

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — watcher died after wake 1 (296min ago). This is the same root cause as 9/12 agents. Intent 48's resolution was never observed; 296min of market exposure went unmonitored.

Diagnose and fix the core SDK watcher crash root cause. Until then, reduce all fallbackMs to ≤1h so a crashed watcher self-recovers before a standing intent can expire unobserved.

BTC adverse-move guard absent from wake script

Mission explicitly includes BTC shorts, but the wake script only monitors ETH at baseline $1682.93. A BTC adverse move would not trigger a wake.

Add BTC price check analogous to ETH check (BTC_BASELINE + ADVERSE_PCT threshold) inside runWatchLoop.

Intent 48 outcome unknown — no repost logic if expired

open_intents dropped 1→0 while watcher was dead. If intent 48 expired rather than filled, the BELOW bet is simply gone with no follow-up. The next wake will need to detect this and repost.

In the next wake, check intent 48's final state (filled vs expired) before deciding whether to repost or recycle the proceeds.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Tight bids from last wake flipped above oracle on -0.2% drops. Intent 207 clearly above τ — filled. Reposted bids at 8bp

new counterparty fillable swap (or 28min fallback)

Summary: Recovery is genuine and clean. The 18:38 wake (w1) detected all 12 pre-crash quotes as price-stale (including sAAPL intent #29 above oracle), executed 12/12 cancels, and reposted 12/12 fresh at current oracle mid — the focus question is answered with evidence. Now 11 open (one filled by Bear-Yosher since repost). 3 settled deals this cycle vs 2 last cycle, a

Fresh restart confirmed: 12/12 stale quotes cancelled and reposted at oracle mid at 18:38. 3 deals settled (Bear-Yosher new this cycle), book live with 11 open intents. However realized PnL is -$59.67 lifetime against $17.89 in token costs — the LP is getting picked off, not just providing liquidity.

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

Sound and on-mission: the wake correctly identified stale quotes (including an above-oracle sAAPL bid), cleaned the book, and reposted two-sided. The agent is solving the right problem — staleness detection and repricing — but the underlying pricing model (pure oracle-mid with no spread) is the structural gap letting arb flow drain PnL.

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

armed, 0 deals — likely the adverse-sele

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

armed but two triggers stale, only 4h fa

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Not applicable — LP mission is to be taken, not to take. The 1 intent filled since repost (Bear-Yosher) is normal throughput. Adverse selection by informed takers is the concern, not missed takes.

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Add a PnL floor guard in the wake script (or agent CLAUDE.md): if realized_pnl < -N USDC per wake cycle, skip reposting and emit a diagnostic — stops the LP from being a continuously open arb target while losing money.

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

One deliberate move rule: skip thin or no-edge bets. Deal #3's +22pp locked edge dominates; waiting for resolution or ne

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own text), yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM.

Deal #3 expiry at DEAL_EXPIRY_TS (2026-06-09T14:10Z)

New BinaryBet on book with takerEdgePp ≥ 3pp (vs flat FAIR_PROB=0.5)

MISSING: oracle-adjusted fair probability — watcher fires on 'edge vs 0.5' not 'edge vs calibrated prob'

Already traded (Deal #3); posts BTC directional BinaryBets that mimic-ljuba takes; missions complement

Both trade BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba also posts small-shade binaries mimic-ljuba could mirror

Picks off mispriced bets; could take mimic-ljuba's self-posted directional intents

Posts Options, not BinaryBets — different template, no structural overlap

Hardcodes DEAL_ID + DEAL_EXPIRY_TS — correct single-deal tracking pattern

Fires on deal expiry OR new high-edge bet — dual trigger fits hold-then-rotate mission

newMatches() pattern avoids re-evaluating already-seen intents

24h fallback is proportionate to deal horizon

FAIR_PROB=0.5 is hardcoded flat prior — correct only for a coin-flip binary; any bet with a known oracle price has a non-flat fair distribution

No oracle-distance calibration: takerEdgePp = (0.5 - takerProb)*100 will mark any bet where taker puts up <50% as 'edge', including deep OTM positions

Edge floor of 3pp vs wrong fair value gives a false gate

Flat FAIR_PROB=0.5 invalidates edge calculations for directional binaries

hasEdge() uses (0.5 - takerProb)*100 as edge. For a BTC above $65k bet with oracle at $63,383, true fair prob is ~12–18%; the flat prior makes the bet look like +32–38pp edge when true edge may be negative. Deal #3 was likely taken at negative EV.

Read oracle price + bet strike + direction in the wake loop; compute fair prob via historical vol (e.g., 80% annualized → ~15% daily σ → lognormal CDF for strike distance); use that as FAIR_PROB instead of 0.5. Can be inlined in hasEdge() with a belt.tools.readOracle call.

Self-posted intent (w1) untracked by watcher

w1 posted a directional BTC bet as maker; the watcher only monitors Deal #3 expiry and incoming taker opportunities — no monitoring of whether the self-posted intent got filled or expired.

After each self-post, store the intentId in watcher state and add a fireWake trigger when that intent settles or expires.

Momentum-Nikita

First wake — no trailing returns. Establishing baseline prices. Taking ~25% starter position in BTC (strongest crypto by

intent #28 resolves (fill/expiry) or 90min

Summary: Fourth consecutive dead cycle. last_wake_min_ago 291→351 (+60min), zero new activity. The 06-08T17:47 wake DID complete and write a valid watcher (wake_script_source exists, INTENT_ID=28, 90-min fallback). That fallback fired ~261min ago (90min after 17:47), triggering a re-decide wake — but that second wake left no new watcher behind (armed=false, pidAlive=

The first wake wrote a valid watcher; the 90-min fallback correctly fired and triggered a re-decide ~261min ago, but that re-decide wake crashed without producing a new watcher. Now armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — fully dead with no automated path back. Intent #28 expired (open_intents=0, deals=1 static). Manual restart required.

Watcher wrote INTENT_ID=28 after first wake; 90-min fallback fired at ~06-08T19:17 UTC; re-decide wake ~261min ago produced no successor watcher; armed=false AND pidAlive=false AND nextFallbackMin=null confirms no self-resurrection mechanism in core SDK

The first wake reasoned correctly (BTC as strongest mover, ~25% starter via Intent #28, appropriate 90-min fallback). The watcher logic is sound. Failure is not reasoning quality — it's that the fallback-triggered re-decide wake crashed mid-execution before arming a new watcher, a core SDK gap shared with 9/12 agents this cycle.

ownIntentResolved on Intent #28 (already fired — intent expired)

90-min fallback (already fired ~261min ago — no successor watcher written)

MISSING: any mechanism to detect a dead watcher and self-restart

Sole settled deal (swap); the fleet's only active liquidity hub at 22 deals

unmeasurable: watcher dead (pidAlive=false), no book polling for 351min

Fires on ownIntentResolved — correct for a momentum trader waiting on an open order

90-min fallback appropriate (covers 1h RFQ window + buffer)

Zero-LLM check, no false-positive risk on non-empty book

Script is now stale: hardcoded INTENT_ID=28 which has expired — any new wake needs a new intent ID and a freshly written watcher

No mechanism to detect watcher self-death and trigger manual or automated resurrection

Core fix: add a watcher-resurrection heartbeat — if a watcher process dies unexpectedly (pidAlive=false, armed=false) without a clean shutdown, the SDK should re-arm from the last written wake_script_source automatically.

Dead watcher with no self-resurrection path

Re-decide wake fired ~261min ago (90-min fallback) but left no successor watcher. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — core SDK has no mechanism to detect and recover this state. Affects 9/12 agents this cycle.

SDK-level: if watcher exits uncleanly (no graceful shutdown flag), auto-re-arm from last wake_script_source; or add a watchdog process that detects pidAlive=false and triggers a re-wake.

Stale INTENT_ID in current watcher script

wake_script_source is hardcoded to INTENT_ID=28 (expired). Even if the watcher were revived, it would immediately fire ownIntentResolved=true and re-decide. Not a blocking issue post-resurrection, but the next wake must write a fresh watcher with the new intent ID.

On manual restart: agent re-decides, posts a new intent, and writes a new watcher — no CLAUDE.md change needed, just trigger the wake.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: Twelfth-plus consecutive dead cycle — state unchanged: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, $0.15 lifetime / $0 this cycle, 0 wakes, null last_wake_min_ago. Step-1 focus answered: option-writer-matheus's ETH put intent #71 (1% OTM, $0.60 premium) IS within mission scope (ETH option, exactly what this agent hunts) and is presumed open this cy

Intent #71 (ETH put, 1% OTM, $0.60 premium) posted by option-writer-matheus this cycle is a direct in-scope opportunity — but option-taker's watcher is fully dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null), so the signal never reaches it. This is the clearest counterparty-fit missed take in the fleet: a live writer, a live option, a dead taker.

watcher dead since before last summary; wake_script_source=null means no process to poll the book; part of 9/12-agent core SDK crash epidemic; $0 spend in 5h confirms zero activity

Cannot assess reasoning quality — 0 wakes, no recent wake output, no script source. The agent has produced nothing to evaluate. The structural failure (dead watcher) precedes any reasoning.

NONE ACTIVE: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null

MISSING: watcher polling open option intents on-chain (would fire on intent #71 ETH put from option-writer-matheus)

Posted ETH put intent #71 (1% OTM, $0.60 premium) this cycle — exact target class; watcher armed, nextFallbackMin=17, 12 deals lifetime

Intent #71 (ETH put, 1% OTM, $0.60 premium) from option-writer-matheus — in-scope ETH option, presumed open, not taken. This is a concrete missed take, not a hypothetical.

wake_script_source is null — no watcher exists at all, good/bad is moot

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) so even a timed restart can't occur

Restart the watcher process; the script should poll for open ETH/BTC option intents on the book at a ~15–30min cadence, fire on any with premium below fair-value threshold — do not block on liveness of counterparty.

Watcher process dead, no auto-restart

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — same state for 12+ consecutive cycles. Part of the 9/12-agent SDK crash epidemic. No platform-level watchdog is reviving it.

Core SDK must implement process-level supervisor / restart-on-crash for watcher daemons fleet-wide. This is the single highest-leverage fix: it unblocks option-taker, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, and 6 others simultaneously.

No fallback timer configured

Unlike option-writer-matheus (nextFallbackMin=17), option-taker has no scheduled fallback, so even if the watcher dies mid-cycle the agent cannot self-rescue via a timed re-entry.

Add a fallback timer (15–30min) to the watcher config so the agent wakes on schedule even when event-driven triggers fail.

Option-Writer-Matheus

wake 14: ENGINE 1 ready — decide whether to write option for premium (or 45min fallback to check deal 21 + reassess)

Summary: Prior 'eighth flatline' summary was pre-bootstrap stale — agent launched for the first time this cycle at 19:33 UTC. W1 built the contrarian 70/30 portfolio (bought sAAPL+sMSFT worst performers + BTC/ETH; wrote ETH put intent 71, 1% OTM, $0.60 premium). W2 recovered from failed intents by accepting LP-Maker-Matheus's open fills (deals 13, 14). W3–W6 entered

Agent is live and correctly executing the contrarian swap engine (6 deals, $11.93 realized PnL, 2 open rebalance intents with fallback in 14 min). The 30% option-writing sleeve has stalled: 1 put written, canceled unfilled (W3), nothing since. Option-Taker-Matheus (health=unknown, 0 deals) is the natural counterparty and is offline — the sleeve is structurally maker-only until a taker appears.

All 6 settled deals are swaps ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus. Option intent 71 (ETH put, strike $1667.52, $0.60 premium, $10 collateral) posted W1, canceled W3 — 0 takers. Option-Taker-Matheus has health=unknown and 0 settled deals fleet-wide. No active option taker exists in the fleet.

Sound and on-mission for the swap engine. The repricing discipline (wait 5 min, lower by $0.30, never raise) is correct and applied exactly as specified. W6 patient hold is appropriate. The gap is that the option sleeve logic has silently atrophied — after canceling intent 71 in W3 the agent pivoted entirely into rebalance mode and has not reassessed whether to repost a new option in 3 subsequent

ownIntentResolved for intent 104 (sell 0.035 sAAPL → 10.2 USDC)

ownIntentResolved for intent 105 (sell 0.025 sMSFT → 10.0 USDC)

MISSING: no trigger for option sleeve reassessment — if 104/105 resolve and no option is outstanding, nothing prompts a new write

All 6 settled deals; deep inventory, actively quotes swaps near oracle mid — natural filler for rebalance swaps 104/105

Mission is explicitly to buy cheap ETH/BTC options written by other agents — perfect structural counterparty for the 30% sleeve

Picks off mispriced intents; might take a well-priced option put if the premium is attractive, but not its primary mission

None identifiable for the swap engine. Option sleeve: agent could have reposted an ETH/BTC option in W4, W5, or W6 after confirming rebalance intents were simply awaiting fills — but option-taker-matheus is offline so any new option would likely also go unfilled. Opportunity cost is real but counterparty-starved, not agent error.

Fires on ownIntentResolved for both open rebalance intents — directly tracks the pending action

48-min fallback (2900s) is appropriate for swap intent lifecycle; won't over-poll

Zero-LLM, pid-tracked, cadence is 30s poll — reasonable for this mission phase

Hardcoded intent IDs (104, 105) — watcher is a one-shot artifact; once these resolve, the next wake must rewrite it for whatever new intents are posted

No option sleeve trigger: if 104/105 fill and no option is outstanding, the next watcher will have nothing to watch — option reassessment only happens via fallb

After 104/105 resolve, add a branch in the next wake-script that also arms an ownIntentResolved trigger for any newly written option intent (or a T-30min expiry check), so the option sleeve fires on condition rather than only on fallback ca

Option sleeve dormant for 3 wakes

Intent 71 (ETH put) canceled in W3; no new option written in W4, W5, W6. The 30% sleeve is silently inactive. The agent should reassess on next wake whether rebalance completion frees collateral for a new option write.

On W7 (triggered by fallback ~14 min): after resolving 104/105 status, explicitly evaluate option sleeve — if free USDC ≥ $10 and no open option, post a new ETH or BTC option at current oracle with 1-3% OTM, 2–4hr term.

Hardcoded intent IDs in watcher are one-shot

current.ts watches intents 104 and 105 by literal string. Each wake produces a new watcher with new intent IDs; this pattern is correct per-cycle but requires the agent to always rewrite the watcher — it cannot be a static file.

No immediate action needed (it works correctly now); document in CLAUDE.md that the watcher must be rewritten each wake referencing the current open intent IDs.

Option-Taker-Matheus offline — option market has no taker

The only fleet agent with a structural mandate to take written options (option-taker-matheus, health=unknown, 0 deals) has never initialized. Option-Writer-Matheus's 30% sleeve cannot produce deals in this environment regardless of its own behavior.

Bootstrap option-taker-matheus; until then, option-writer-matheus's option sleeve PnL is structurally zero — not an agent bug.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: Wake 2 (20:01 Jun8) resolved prior summary's dead-loop concern: agent successfully executed, posted intent #89 (ETH<$1700/Jun9, 0.588 implied, 10 USDC, edge=10.3%), and redeployed a new watcher with pidAlive=true. Prior run flagged 'pid dead, no intermediate wake path' — both reversed. The wake script written at wake 2 NOW CONTAINS a working pre-expiry T-5mi

Focus question resolved YES: the T-5min pre-expiry check at lines `nowSec >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300` fires at Jun9 15:55 UTC (~17h 55m from now, well before the 16:00 UTC expiry). The loop polls every 60s, so the worst-case miss window is 60s. Fallback at 20:00 UTC is post-expiry but is now a secondary concern — the inline check covers the critical settlement window. 0 settled deals is market-structural: both intents are maker posts awaiting takers.

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 10 USDC, 0.617 implied) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 10 USDC, 0.588 implied) both posted as maker; settled_deals_detail=[], 0 counterparties have filled. No arb-hunter-tom or mimic-ljuba fill recorded.

Sound and on-mission. Wake 1: BTC<$64k backed by $158k Polymarket liquidity + oracle $63,457 vs $64k strike. Wake 2: ETH<$1700 edge=10.3%, $124k liquidity, shade to 58.8%. Both quantitative, both anchored to Polymarket implied probability vs on-chain oracle — exactly the mission. No churn: each wake posted a distinct instrument. The agent is solving the right problem.

ownIntentResolved on #32 or #89 (fill or expiry event)

T-5min pre-expiry inline check: nowSec >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300 (Jun9 15:55 UTC)

newMatches: fresh BinaryBet/Option intent posted by non-self address

Fallback: Jun9 20:00 UTC (4h post-expiry)

Mission: take near-decided binary bets against lagging oracle — both intents are in-the-money vs oracle; oracle $63,457 < $64k strike makes

Mission: accept winnable open bets re-priced to live oracle — live BinaryBet vs Bear-Yosher already active, capacity may be consumed; could

Mission: take near-decided binaries — intents are in-the-money but shaded conservatively (not clearly mispriced), so vulture may not see suf

Mission: short ETH/BTC via Perpetuals, not BinaryBet taker; wrong instrument class

Unmeasurable in the taker direction: arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew watchers are dead and cannot scan the book. Mimic-ljuba (the one live counterparty) has not filled either intent since they posted at 18:03 and 20:01 Jun8 — either intents don't meet its re-pricing threshold or its capacity is already deployed in the Bear-Yosher BinaryBet. No intents from other agents that polymarket-ljuba shou

Pre-expiry T-5min check (nowSec >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300) is present, correct, and will fire at Jun9 15:55 UTC — directly answering Step-1 focus question

60s poll cadence: appropriate for binary resolution; catches the T-5min window with at most 60s slip

ownIntentResolved watches both #32 and #89 independently — will fire immediately on fill without waiting for fallback

isNewTakeable correctly excludes own intents and filters to BinaryBet/Option — no false fires on swap book noise

Zero-LLM watcher; all checks are deterministic

Fallback at EXPIRY_SEC + 4h (20:00 UTC Jun9) is 4h post-expiry — useless for pre-settlement action; it only catches a post-expiry reassessment if the T-5min che

preExpireFired flag is in-memory: if the watcher process crashes and restarts between now and T-5min, flag resets to false and will re-fire (harmless double-wak

Baseline-round skip on `seen` initialization means the first poll after arm doesn't scan for new intents — acceptable 60s blind window at startup

Move the fallback to T-10min before expiry (EXPIRY_SEC - 600) instead of +4h post-expiry. This makes the fallback a true safety net for the pre-expiry window rather than a dead post-expiry cleanup trigger. The T-5min inline check remains as

arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew dead watchers block polymarket-ljuba fills

The two agents most likely to take polymarket-ljuba's in-the-money BinaryBets both have dead watchers (armed=false, pidAlive=false). As long as they're offline, intents #32 and #89 have effectively 1 reachable counterparty (mimic-ljuba). Re-arming either would be the event most likely to produce a s

Re-arm arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew; polymarket-ljuba's intents are on-book and correctly priced, they just need a live taker.

Fallback fires 4h post-expiry — provides no pre-settlement safety net

FALLBACK_UNIX_SEC = EXPIRY_SEC + 4*3600. If the process restarts at T-5min and the preExpireFired flag resets, the inline check still fires, but the fallback is not a backstop for that window.

Set FALLBACK_UNIX_SEC = EXPIRY_SEC - 600 (T-10min) so the fallback is a true pre-expiry safety net. Add a separate post-expiry re-arm inside the T-5min wake handler if post-expiry reassessment is needed.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC is most underweight at -35pp. DCA slice = $7. Needed to register agent first (PosterNotRegistered prereq).

intent #13 fills/expires or US market opens (4h fallback)

Summary: Intent #13 (7 USDC → 0.0001105 BTC, ~$63,348/BTC implied) posted at w1 (17:20 UTC Jun-08) expired unfilled — open_intents=0, deals=0, unchanged from last run. Critical update: LP-Maker-Matheus's ask has dropped from ~$63,700 to ~$63,150/BTC this cycle, which CROSSES lior's last implied bid of ~$63,348/BTC by ~$198 (0.31%). A take intent would fill right now

The spread has inverted: LP-Maker-Matheus asks ~$63,150/BTC vs lior's last implied bid of ~$63,348/BTC — a $198 gap in lior's favor. The agent is ready to trade and would fill, but its watcher is fully crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback registered) and has been silent for 378 min. Zero deals remain structural, not price-driven.

Watcher crashed post-w1 (378 min ago); armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — same core SDK crash epidemic affecting 9/12 agents. Intent #13 expired with 0 fills; no self-rescue path exists. LP ask at ~$63,150/BTC crossed below lior's $63,348/BTC bid, so price is no longer the blocker.

The single completed wake was sound: registered agent, approved USDC, posted a correctly-sized $7 DCA slice with a realistic BTC price target. The logic is on-mission. However, the wake script hardcodes intent ID '13' — once that intent expires (which it has), the ownIntentResolved watch condition is permanently stale and can never fire again. The agent is solving the right problem but the wake sc

ownIntentResolved on intent #13 (STALE — intent already expired, open_intents=0)

setTimeout for US market open 17:30 UTC Jun-08 (ALREADY PASSED — 378 min ago)

4h fallback via armWatcher (NEVER FIRED — watcher crashed before fallback could trigger)

MISSING: no live watch trigger remains; all three conditions are either stale or past

LP is selling BTC at ~$63,150/BTC; lior's last implied bid was $63,348/BTC — spread crossed by $198, take intent would fill immediately

ok — 15 open swap quotes on book, watche

Options/stocks inventory; no BTC swap quotes

Takes mispriced swaps but also posts baited intents; could cross lior's BTC intent if favorably priced

LP-Maker-Matheus's ask dropped from ~$63,700 to ~$63,150/BTC at some point this cycle — once it crossed below lior's $63,348/BTC implied bid, a take intent would have filled. Exact timing of the price drop is unknown, but the opportunity is currently live and uncaptured solely because the watcher is dead.

ownIntentResolved trigger is the correct pattern for a DCA agent — wake exactly when the slice resolves, not on a poll

US market-open timer for stock DCA is mission-appropriate (stocks need market hours)

4h fallback is correctly patient for a slow DCA agent — not over-polling

Hardcoded MY_INTENT_ID='13' — once intent #13 expires the watch condition is permanently stale; the script cannot generalize to subsequent wakes

No crash recovery: if armWatcher() fails (as it did here), there is no self-healing path — nextFallbackMin=null confirms the fallback never registered

Market-open timer (17:30 UTC Jun-08) is a one-time absolute timestamp baked into the script — will be in the past on every subsequent wake, dead weight after w1

Replace hardcoded MY_INTENT_ID='13' with a dynamic lookup of lior's current open intents (readIntents filtered by own address) so the script survives intent expiry and works on every wake, not just w1.

Watcher crash epidemic — armWatcher/pid death

9/12 agents including rebalancer-lior have armed=false AND pidAlive=false. Lior's watcher died immediately after w1 (378 min ago), before the 4h fallback could register. This is the primary blocker across the fleet.

Identify and fix the SDK crash in wake-watch.js / armWatcher(); add a supervisor that restarts dead watchers or at minimum alerts on pid death within the first 60 seconds of a new wake script.

Hardcoded intent ID in wake script — stale after first lifecycle

wake_script_source hardcodes MY_INTENT_ID='13'; intent #13 has expired (open_intents=0), so ownIntentResolved will never fire again. Every future manually-triggered wake will write a new script with a new ID, but the pattern breaks whenever an intent expires before the watcher fires.

Replace with dynamic intent resolution: at loop tick, fetch own open intents by address and watch for any to resolve, rather than hardcoding a single ID.

Absolute market-open timestamp baked into script

The setTimeout targets 'new Date("2026-06-08T17:30:00Z")' — a specific past moment. On any re-use or reboot this timer fires immediately (or never, if Date.now() > that epoch).

Express market-open logic as 'next occurrence of 17:30 UTC on a weekday' rather than a hardcoded epoch, or derive it fresh at each wake from the current date.

Stacker-Massimo

Summary: Intent #78 (0.50 USDC bait bid, sNVDA at oracle×0.99, posted 19:52 UTC) confirmed expired unfilled — 0 deals lifetime, 226 min since last wake. Watcher crashed post-deployment (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null), same core SDK epidemic. New finding this cycle: the sizing mismatch is structural and permanent — LP-Maker-Matheus's minimum quoted

Massimo is doubly stuck: the watcher is dead so no new intent can be posted after #78 expired, AND its 0.50 USDC slice (≈ 0.00238 sNVDA at $210/sNVDA) is 25× below LP-Maker-Matheus's minimum lot (0.06 sNVDA = ~12.60 USDC). Even a live watcher cannot produce a deal until the fleet has a sell-side sNVDA poster accepting micro-lots — which no current agent does.

LP quotes 0.06 sNVDA → 12.60 USDC (~$210/sNVDA implied); massimo's 0.50 USDC buys ≈ 0.00238 sNVDA — below LP minimum lot by 25×. Intent #78 bait bid at oracle×0.99 attracted zero takers in 226+ min. 0 settled deals lifetime. Watcher crash (core) compounds but is secondary to the size floor problem.

Sound reasoning, wrong size. The bait-bid strategy (post at oracle×0.99, watch for oracle drift or new sell-side sNVDA ≤ oracle×1.005) is conceptually coherent for a patient stacker. But 0.50 USDC is below the economic minimum for any counterparty in this fleet — no one posts or takes sNVDA in sub-$1 lots. The watcher loop is well-structured but solving for a fill that the market cannot physically

ownIntentResolved fires when intent #78 fills or expires (already expired — trigger never fired due to watcher crash)

sNVDA oracle drift >0.5% from $207.76 POSTED_ORACLE

New sell-side sNVDA intent appearing at ≤ oracle×1.005

Fallback: min(msUntilAfterhours=20:30 UTC Jun 8, 30 min) — AFTERHOURS_TS is now ~3h38m stale; next run Math.max(60_000, negative) → 60s fallback

Minimum lot 0.06 sNVDA = ~12.60 USDC; massimo's 0.50 USDC slice is 25× too small to fill one LP quote

DCA via delivered swaps; could theoretically post sell-side sNVDA if over-weight, but 0 deals and no evidence of sNVDA sell activity

Takes mispriced intents rather than posting sell-side sNVDA; 6 deals but none involve sNVDA sell-side

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to book since crash. No sell-side sNVDA intents visible in open_intents=0, but the fleet has been inactive for 226 min so the book state during the gap is unknown. Even if a sell-side sNVDA appeared, the 0.50 USDC lot floor makes fill structurally unlikely regardless.

Watches three distinct signals: ownIntentResolved, oracle drift >0.5%, new sell-side sNVDA ≤ oracle×1.005 — appropriate for a patient limit-order strategy

60s poll cadence is reasonable; 30-min fallback prevents indefinite sleep

Zero-LLM watcher loop; fireWake conditions are deterministic and specific

newMatches guard on seen-set prevents re-firing on stale intents

MY_INTENT_ID='78' and POSTED_ORACLE=207.76 are hardcoded: once intent #78 resolves, the next wake will call ownIntentResolved on a dead intent ID forever — agen

AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 (20:30 UTC Jun 8) is now ~3h38m in the past; msUntilAfterhours is negative — fallback collapses to 60s minimum, which is harmless but s

No check that a posted intent is still open — if the watcher crashes after posting and revives, it should detect the expired intent and immediately post the nex

Replace the hardcoded MY_INTENT_ID with a dynamic lookup: on each wake, read own open intents; if none exist post a new 0.50 USDC bait bid and store the resulting intent ID in state. This breaks the dead-intent watch loop and makes the agen

Watcher crash epidemic — massimo stranded post-intent-#78-expiry

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Same root cause as 9/12 agents. Intent #78 expired unfilled without triggering a new wake; agent has been dark for 226 min.

Core SDK watcher process stability fix (already tracked fleet-wide). No agent-level action until core is stable.

0.50 USDC slice is below every counterparty's minimum economic lot

LP-Maker-Matheus's smallest quoted lot is 0.06 sNVDA = ~12.60 USDC at $210/sNVDA implied. Massimo's 0.50 USDC ≈ 0.00238 sNVDA — 25× below that floor. No other fleet agent posts sell-side sNVDA in micro-lots. The bait-bid strategy can only work if an external/organic seller posts at oracle×0.99; the

Fleet-level: add a sell-side sNVDA agent (e.g. rebalancer-lior surplus routing) that accepts micro-lot fills, OR increase massimo's per-wake budget to ≥ 15 USDC to clear the LP lot floor.

Hardcoded intent ID and oracle price make wake script non-self-recovering

MY_INTENT_ID='78' and POSTED_ORACLE=207.76 baked into wake 1 source. After intent #78 expires, ownIntentResolved will fire once (if the watcher is alive), produce a new wake — but the *next* generated wake script must again hardcode a new intent ID. If the watcher crashes between posting and the nex

Rewrite wake script to dynamically resolve own open intents each loop iteration; post a new bait bid if none exist, then watch the resulting intent ID. Eliminates the hardcoded-ID failure mode entirely.

Swing-Nikita

First wake setup — need approval to trade when signals fire

Summary: Dead confirmed 7th+ consecutive cycle. last_wake_min_ago advanced 555→615 (+60min), sustaining the exact ~60min/cycle clock-drift seen in every prior run — zero new activity. Only 1 ever wake (06-08T13:23: USDC approval). Warmup sampler died immediately after that wake (armed=false, pidAlive=false); the 60-min fallback due ~14:23 06-08 UTC is now ~9.25h over

swing-nikita has never traded: 1 wake (USDC approval only), 0 price samples, 0 deals, watcher crashed for 615min. LP-Maker-Matheus holds 15 live quotes across ETH/BTC/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT/SSV that could be the target universe — but whether any show a dislocation vs trailing average is unmeasurable because the warmup never collected a single data point to build the average against.

watcher armed=false, pidAlive=false since first wake at 06-08T13:23; warmup cadence script never fired a second sample; no trailing-average baseline built; 615min stale — longest gap in fleet

The warmup-first design is sound for a mean-reversion strategy that needs a trailing average before trading — it's not solving the wrong problem. The failure is purely structural: the warmup watcher (a core SDK process) crashed before accumulating data, not a logic error in the mission. However, a single-sample warmup with no self-healing or inline sample accumulation means one crash = permanent f

60-min time-based fallback (armWatcher fallbackMs=3,600,000)

MISSING: no self-healing restart if watcher process dies mid-warmup

MISSING: no inline sample accumulation that survives a watcher restart

Natural swap counterparty — 15 open delivered-swap quotes across ETH, BTC, sAAPL, sMSFT, sNVDA, SSV; swing's dislocation trades would take t

watcher also dead (armed=false, pidAlive

Both use delivered swaps; could cross on overlapping assets if rebalancer posts in swing's target universe

Vulture takes mispriced intents; swing would be posting/taking, not writing bait — wrong direction

unmeasurable: watcher never collected a single price sample, so no trailing average exists and dislocation detection is impossible — cannot assess whether LP's 15 live quotes (ETH, BTC, sAAPL, sMSFT, sNVDA, SSV) show actionable dislocations

Warmup-before-trading design is correct for mean-reversion — need a price history before firing swaps

60-min cadence is appropriate for building a trailing average without over-sampling

Zero-LLM, no poll-on-book-non-empty anti-pattern, has a fallback deadline

No self-healing: if the watcher process dies mid-warmup, the sampling chain breaks permanently with no recovery path

No persistence: accumulated samples aren't written to disk between wakes, so a restart loses all prior data

Single-point warmup: the script assumes the process stays alive; one crash = baseline never built

Write each price sample to a local state file on wake (e.g. samples.json) so a re-armed watcher can resume accumulation from existing data rather than starting from zero — this makes the warmup crash-tolerant and reduces re-init cost from 2

Watcher crash epidemic kills warmup chain

swing-nikita is one of 9/12 agents with armed=false AND pidAlive=false. The same core SDK watcher crash that afflicts the fleet killed the warmup process after the first wake, preventing any sample collection. Re-initializing swing-nikita is pointless until this is resolved.

Fix the core SDK watcher process crash (shared root cause); then re-arm swing-nikita

Stateless warmup — no sample persistence across watcher restarts

The current warmup loop holds no state between process invocations. With the watcher dying every cycle, each restart loses prior samples, meaning the baseline can never accumulate even if crashes are partially mitigated.

Add sample persistence: write price snapshots to a local JSON file each wake; on startup, load existing samples before deciding whether to continue warmup or proceed to trading

Vulture-Andrew

Summary: Still dead: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — no change from last run. Gap grew from 206min to 266min with zero new wakes, zero token spend, zero new deals. The single w1 (19:12) basket-buy remains the only lifetime activity; 52 USDC sits idle, 0 open intents. Off-mission portfolio construction (6 × 8 USDC fills across ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNV

Vulture has 52 USDC, LP is quoting 15 live swaps right now, and the agent cannot act on any of them — watcher is fully dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback). The focused question (are LP's quotes mispriced by vulture's edge threshold?) is structurally unmeasurable this cycle: wake_script_source=null means no book-scan logic exists to evaluate, and without oracle mid the implied prices ($1,725/ETH, $63,750/BTC) can't be graded. The blocker is the dead watcher, not the market.

watcher armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; 266min since w1 with zero re-arms; wake_script_source=null so no live book-scan exists; all 6 deals are LP-Maker-Matheus basket fills from a single off-mission wake

Unsound — solving the wrong problem. w1 reasoning ('flat wallet — need basket to fund any deal') led to portfolio construction (buy ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT at oracle mid), not edge capture. A basket-buy at oracle mid is the opposite of the mission ('pick off mispriced swaps / near-certain edges'). Even if the basket logic were correct, the watcher never re-armed afterward — the agent execute

MISSING: book-scan trigger — no wake fires when LP posts a quote outside edge threshold

MISSING: fallback timer — nextFallbackMin=null means no heartbeat even in thin markets

MISSING: near-decided binary trigger — 0 BinaryBet scans since launch

sole liquidity source; 15 live swap quotes right now are the exact take targets for vulture's mission

posts option contracts; vulture could take near-decided ITM options if priced below fair value

ok — armed, nextFallbackMin=17, 12 deals

posts BinaryBets; vulture's mission includes taking near-decided binaries

ok — watcher alive, 2 open intents expir

posts BinaryBets; potential near-decided take targets

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book. LP has 15 live swap quotes (examples: 0.01 ETH→17.25 USDC implying $1,725/ETH; 0.0002 BTC→12.75 USDC implying $63,750/BTC) — whether either is outside vulture's edge threshold cannot be determined without oracle mid and the threshold definition from the dead wake script. polymarket-ljuba's 2 open BinaryBets (10 USDC each, expiring Jun-09 16:00) are also unscann

wake_script_source=null — no script exists to evaluate; watcher never re-armed after w1

No book-scan logic: mission requires polling LP quotes vs oracle mid but no such trigger exists

No BinaryBet near-decided scanner despite mission explicitly calling for it

No fallback cadence — agent can stay dark indefinitely with no heartbeat

Bootstrap a watcher that wakes every 15–30min, fetches LP's live quotes + oracle mid, computes (quote_rate - oracle_mid) / oracle_mid, and fires the agent if any quote exceeds the edge threshold (e.g. >0.5% mispricing). Add a 60min fallback

Watcher dead, never re-armed

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null since w1 at 19:12 (266min ago). Agent cannot act on any of LP's 15 live quotes or polymarket-ljuba's 2 open BinaryBets.

Restart watcher process; add a self-re-arm step at the end of every wake execution so the watcher survives single-wake bootstraps

w1 reasoning was off-mission: basket construction, not edge capture

w1 logic ('flat wallet → need basket') triggered 6 × 8 USDC buys at oracle mid — zero edge, zero alpha. Mission is to take *mispriced* swaps, not build a balanced portfolio.

Revise CLAUDE.md to clarify: if wallet is empty, the correct action is to wait and scan for edges, not buy at mid. First action should always be a book-scan, not portfolio rebalancing.

Watcher crash epidemic blocks all edge-capture agents

9/12 agents have armed=false AND pidAlive=false — vulture is one of 9. Root cause is a shared SDK/process issue, not agent-specific. Vulture cannot run its mission until this is fixed fleet-wide.

Diagnose core watcher process exit path — add automatic re-arm on exit and a supervisor heartbeat. Scoped to SDK, not individual agent CLAUDEs.

wallet-address frequency (10/12 agents addressed)

LP HUB BLEEDING, 8 DARK

Option-Writer-Matheus ⇄ LP-Maker-Matheus (6 deals) · Vulture-Andrew → LP-Maker-Matheus (6 deals) · Bear-Yosher / Arb-Hunter-Tom / Momentum-Nikita → LP-Maker-Matheus (3 deals) · 0xFd1B…1544 + 0x1a74…7A

ACTIVE — LP sole hub; watcher alive nextFallbackMin=26; PnL -$59.67; token burn

Bear-Yosher ⇄ Mimic-Ljuba (1 settled, Deal #3) · Polymarket-Ljuba → open (intents #32 BTC<$64k, #89 ETH<$1700, 972min to expiry, 0 takers)

THIN — 1 match this cycle; Polymarket-Ljuba maker-only; Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.

Option-Writer-Matheus → ETH put intent #71 (strike $1667.52, $0.60 premium, $10 collateral) posted w1, canceled w3, 0 takers

FROZEN — Option-Taker-Matheus dead (wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes th

Core SDK crash epidemic: 8/12 agents dead (armed=false AND pidAlive=false) after their first post-launch wake

All swap liquidity demand concentrates on LP-Maker-Matheus (sole hub); informed takers (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Option-Writer-Ma

8 confirmed dead: swing-nikita (615min), rebalancer-lior (378min), momentum-nikita (351min), vulture-andrew (266min), arb-hunter-tom (229min), stacker-massimo (226min), bear-yosher, option-taker-mathe

Rebalancer-Lior watcher dead 378min; no agent to execute taker side

Missed a live filled-cross: LP-Maker-Matheus BTC ask fell to ~$63,150 while lior's implied bid is $63,348 — $198 (0.31%)

Intent #13 (7 USDC → 0.0001105 BTC, ~$63,348/BTC implied) expired unfilled; open book shows LP 'gives 12.6 USDC → wants 0.0002 BTC' (54min left) at ~$63,000 implied — below lior's bid

Option-Taker-Matheus permanently dead (wake_script_source=null, 12+ consecutive dead cycles)

Option-Writer-Matheus's ETH put sleeve (intent #71, 1% OTM, $0.60 premium) has no counterparty; option sub-market cannot

option-taker-matheus: 0 token spend this cycle, $0.15 lifetime PnL total, armed=false pidAlive=false; option-writer-matheus 6 settled deals are 100% Swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, 0 option fills

Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded flat prior ignores oracle price

Deal #3 (↔ Bear-Yosher, BinaryBet settled) is a mispriced taker position: agent took 'BTC above $65k in 24h' at oracle $

w5 log: 'above $65k in 24h' taken at $63,383 oracle; hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 regardless of strike distance; w7 '+22pp locked edge' = 0.5 - 0.28 (taker implied), not oracle-calibrated

Stacker-Massimo mission targets 0.50 USDC per intent; LP minimum lot is ~12.60 USDC

0 deals lifetime — 25× size gap means no counterparty in current fleet can partially fill; watcher crash is secondary an

LP open: 'gives 0.06 sNVDA → wants 12.60 USDC' (~$210/sNVDA); massimo intent #78: 0.50 USDC → 0.00238 sNVDA; 0 settled deals; 226min dark post-w1

Core SDK watcher crash epidemic: 8/12 agents dead post-first-wake

8 of 12 agents have armed=false AND pidAlive=false with no self-resurrection path. Longest gaps: swing-nikita (615min), rebalancer-lior (378min), momentum-nikita (351min), vulture-andrew (266min), arb-hunter-tom (229min), stacker-massimo (226min). All wrote a valid watcher after their first wake, then the process died. No agent-specific fix applies — this is a shared platform failure.

All 8 dead agents: same signature — watcher written after wake-1, nextFallbackMin=null, pidAlive=false; 4 survivors (lp-maker-matheus, mimic-ljuba, option-writer-matheus, polymarket-ljuba) all launched or revived fresh this cycle

Add a persistent supervisor or cron-backed fallback in core SDK: any agent process that exits without setting a successor nextFallbackMin should be automatically re-armed within 10min

LP-Maker-Matheus nextFallbackMin=26 — stale-quote window imminent again

LP is sole hub for 23/24 settled deals. Its watcher fires in ~26min; if it crashes as it did pre-recovery, 12 open swap quotes (35–54min TTL remaining) will expire stale. The prior crash already left sAAPL intent #29 above oracle. Token burn at $16.83/5h (12.2% of pool) also signals pool sustainability risk within ~24h at current rate.

12 open LP intents in book (35–54min remaining); nextFallbackMin=26; PnL -$59.67 this cycle; $16.83 token burn in 5h; pool burned 12.2% in one cycle

Extend LP fallback interval to ≥55min (≥ longest open-intent TTL) so a watcher crash cannot leave stale quotes live; or add auto-cancel for intents older than 90% of TTL

Option market structurally frozen: writer operational, taker dead 12+ cycles

Option-Writer-Matheus is healthy (nextFallbackMin=6, 6 settled swap deals this cycle, ETH put sleeve active). Option-Taker-Matheus has wake_script_source=null and has never successfully operated. The two agents are mission-paired but the taker cannot function. No other fleet agent can take option intents.

option-taker-matheus: wake_script_source=null, $0.15 lifetime PnL, 0 token spend this cycle, armed=false pidAlive=false for 12+ cycles; intent #71 (ETH put, strike $1667.52, $0.60 premium) posted w1, canceled w3, 0 takers

Manually restart option-taker-matheus — it has an exactly in-scope target (ETH put, 1% OTM, $0.60 premium from option-writer-matheus) available right now

Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded — systematic mispricing in BinaryBet market

Deal #3 (↔ Bear-Yosher) is a position the agent believes is ~72% likely to win but is ~85–90% likely to lose given BTC at $63,383 vs $65k strike in 24h. Every future BinaryBet will be equally mispriced until the flat prior is replaced.

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at BTC oracle $63,383; FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp edge' — artefact of 0.5 minus taker-implied probability, not oracle-calibrated distribution

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with a log-normal BTC price model parameterized on oracle price, strike, and time-to-expiry; fair should be ~0.10–0.15 for the taken position

Polymarket-Ljuba 2 BinaryBets expiring Jun-09 16:00 UTC — T-5min trigger is the only exit

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 10 USDC, 0.617 implied) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 10 USDC, 0.588 implied) expire in ~972min with 0 fills (maker-only). The T-5min pre-expiry trigger in the current watcher is the sole resolution path. Watcher is the fleet's best-configured for expiry (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=1213, pidAlive=true).

2 open BinaryBet intents; settled_deals_detail=[]; watcher nextFallbackMin=1213 (covers expiry window); expiry 2026-06-09 16:00 UTC

No action now; if watcher crashes before expiry, manually cancel both intents before 2026-06-09 15:55 UTC to avoid forced settlement

Stacker-Massimo structurally unable to trade: 25× size floor mismatch

0.50 USDC per intent is permanently below LP minimum lot (~12.60 USDC). A live watcher cannot produce a deal. This is a mission design flaw requiring resize, not a watcher fix.

LP min lot: 0.06 sNVDA → 12.60 USDC; intent #78: 0.50 USDC → 0.00238 sNVDA (25× gap); 0 settled deals lifetime; 226min dark

Resize Massimo's intent floor to ≥13 USDC per trade, or pivot mission to an asset with a smaller LP minimum lot

Implement persistent watcher supervisor: any agent process exiting without a successor nextFallbackMin must be auto-re-armed within 10min. This is the single highest-leverage fix — restoring 8/12 dead agents would multiply fleet throughput ~3× and relieve LP adverse-selection con

Manually restart option-taker-matheus now: option-writer-matheus's ETH put intent #71 (1% OTM, $0.60 premium) is the exact mission match and is actively available; one restart unblocks the option sub-market

Fix Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 before next BinaryBet wake: replace hardcoded prior with oracle-calibrated log-normal model; current Deal #3 position (BTC>$65k at $63,383) is ~85–90% likely to lose

Resize Stacker-Massimo intent floor to ≥13 USDC: the 25× gap to LP minimum lot is a permanent structural no-fill; watcher repairs alone cannot produce deals

Add inventory skew / spread buffer to LP-Maker-Matheus quotes: at -$59.67 PnL and $16.83 token burn/5h (12.2% of pool), pool sustainability requires reducing adverse selection from informed takers crossing at oracle mid

Marginally better vs last run: option-writer-matheus launched for the first time this cycle (12 deals, watcher armed, nextFallbackMin=17), mimic-ljuba revived with 1 settled BinaryBet, polymarket-ljuba now holds 2 open intents — but 9/12 watchers remain crashed and LP-Maker-Matheus's own watcher is

Watcher crash epidemic: 9/12 agents have armed=false AND pidAlive=false — core SDK root cause unresolved since last run

LP-Maker-Matheus 15 open swap quotes expire in 47–55min with watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false) — stale-quote failure imminent again

option-writer-matheus nextFallbackMin=17 — about to fire; watch whether it continues cleanly or watcher dies post-wake

polymarket-ljuba 2 BinaryBets expiring Jun-09 16:00 UTC (983min, 10 USDC each) — T-5min trigger coverage is load-bearing

Funnel at 11.2% conversion (23/206 settled); all activity routes through LP-Maker-Matheus as sole liquidity hub

Watcher dead 227min with no re-init — has LP posted any BTC or near-decided binary intents arb-hunter could have taken since last summary (prior deal was 2 SSV↔LP-Maker-Matheus), and is there a concrete recovery path or is this a permanent

Recent deals show 'Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba [BinaryBet] live' — is this the orphaned intent from prior summary finally matched, and has bear-yosher done anything new since its watcher crashed 294min ago?

Watcher is now armed=false with 15 open swap quotes expiring in 47–55min — is LP about to repeat the exact stale-quote failure from last cycle, and what triggered the wake 66min ago that produced the fresh quotes?

Watcher alive (nextFallbackMin=1199, ~20h out) — does the current wake script still use hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5, and is the active BinaryBet position (↔ Bear-Yosher) mispriced relative to Polymarket's live ETH/BTC distribution right now?

349min since last wake, armed=false — did the 06-08T17:47 wake's LLM call complete and write a valid watcher before crashing, and what is the concrete re-initialization path given the 90-min fallback fired ~261min ago with no result?

11+ consecutive dead cycles — option-writer-matheus posted ETH put intent #71 (1% OTM, $0.60 premium) this cycle; is that intent still open on-chain and within option-taker's mission scope, and if so why hasn't it triggered a wake?

Watcher fires in ~17min (nextFallbackMin=17) — how many of the W3–W6 contrarian stock/crypto intents remain open vs settled, and is the portfolio construction still consistent with current oracle prices ahead of the imminent wake?

Two open BinaryBets expire Jun-09 16:00 UTC (983min, 10 USDC + 10 USDC) — does the current wake script's T-5min pre-expiry trigger explicitly cover these intent IDs, and is the pricing edge (10.3% cited in prior summary for intent #89) stil

LP-Maker-Matheus is quoting 0.0002 BTC → 12.63 USDC (~$63,150/BTC ask) on the live book; lior's prior bid implied ~$63,348/BTC — is that gap now closed enough for a compatible take intent, and what is the re-initialization path given the wa

LP quotes sNVDA at 0.06 sNVDA → 12.60 USDC (~$210/sNVDA implied); at 0.50 USDC per slice massimo cannot fill one LP lot — is the sizing mismatch structural and why hasn't the watcher re-armed after intent #78 expired unfilled?

613min since last wake — most stale agent in the fleet; do any of LP's 15 live quotes (ETH, BTC, sAAPL, sMSFT, sNVDA, SSV, sMSFT) show a dislocation vs trailing average that swing's mission would act on, and what would a re-initialization a

264min since last wake, 52 USDC available, LP quoting 15 live swaps right now — are any of LP's current quotes (e.g. 0.01 ETH → 17.25 USDC, 0.0002 BTC → 12.75 USDC) outside fair-value by vulture's edge threshold, and what specifically block

Investigate why watchers die immediately post-wake across 9/12 agents — this is a systemic SDK crash pattern; fix it before addressing any per-agent issue

lp-maker-matheus: re-arm watcher now — 15 open quotes expire in ~47min and armed=false; same stale-quote failure as last cycle is ~40min away

Manually re-initialize the 7 fully stranded agents (arb-hunter-tom, bear-yosher, momentum-nikita, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, vulture-andrew) — all have armed=false, pidAlive=false

Deploy a watchdog that detects armed=false within 5min of a wake completing and auto-triggers re-init — would have prevented all 7 strandings this cycle