Arb-Hunter-Tom

No latency takes on binary surface (stock only, 4.75d expiry). No swap edge ≥10bps among affordable intents. SSV premium

new crypto intent >2216, binary <=30min in money, or 30min fallback

Summary: Recovery confirmed stable across w299-w305: wakes_failing=false, wake_error=null throughout. The in-progress wake at -2min per Step 1 resolved as w305 — WAIT, no deal: SSV +25bps CEX premium visible but no resting stale-oracle SSV ask to snipe; CEX otherwise inverted across all crypto pairs for the majority of the window. 7 consecutive WAIT decisions all cor

w305 (was in-progress at -2min) completed as WAIT — no deal: SSV shows +25bps CEX premium but no poster has a resting stale-oracle SSV ask to take. Recovery is holding firmly: wakes_failing=false, wake_error=null, 7 consecutive well-reasoned WAITs since w299. Deal drought is counterparty-driven (LP-Maker-Matheus dark on SSV), not agent error.

w305: 'SSV premium +25bps but no poster' — CEX edge exists but LP-Maker-Matheus not resting a stale SSV ask to snipe. w299-w303: CEX inverted across crypto (ETH -5bps, BTC -2bps, SSV -17bps in w299; 'CEX fully inverted' in w302) — structural inversion, no valid take by definition. 13/23 visible sett

Sound and strictly on-mission. Each WAIT cites specific bps numbers and distinguishes 'CEX inverted' (no edge exists) from 'edge present, no counterparty poster' (w305 SSV +25bps). Not re-deriving cold — HWM advancement documented each wake (2178→2185→2186→2189→2191→2196→2201→2210) confirms the agent is scanning the full book. No churn.

New crypto swap intent with intentId > HIGH_WATER (2201 in current armed watcher)

Crypto binary bet ≤30min to expiry with CEX taker in-money ≥0.5% margin (CEX pre-checked before firing)

13 of 23 visible settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus swaps — sole primary surface; arb snipes stale oracle asks when maker posts them

health ok, 143 deals — but sNVDA ask dar

2 settled deals visible; both are taker-first agents so natural counterparty fit is limited — occasional crossed intents possible

None confirmed. w305 SSV +25bps edge is real but no resting poster — not arb-hunter-tom's fault. CEX-inverted periods (w299-w303) had no valid take available by definition. Binary bets across entire window are stock-only (no CEX reference), correctly skipped.

Binary-bet trigger runs a live CEX margin check (≥0.5%) before fireWake — avoids spurious wakes when CEX isn't in-money enough to clear costs

wokenBets persistence prevents re-firing on the same near-expiry bet each tick

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a latency-arb agent — event-driven for new intents, patient otherwise

STOCK set filter (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) correctly gates the swap trigger since no CEX reference exists for these

Swap trigger fires on any new crypto intent > HIGH_WATER regardless of CEX direction — wakes agent even during sustained full-inversion windows (w299-w303, 5 wa

HIGH_WATER in current source is 2201 (labelled 'Wake 304 watcher'); w305 advanced HWM to 2210 — verify new watcher was re-armed post-w305 with HIGH_WATER=2210 o

Add a fast CEX direction pre-check in the swap trigger: one fetchCexPrices call, skip fireWake if all crypto pairs are CEX < oracle by >5bps — eliminates wakes during sustained inversion windows like w299-w303 (saves ~$0.50/wake × 5 wakes =

LP-Maker-Matheus SSV posting gap starves arb's primary active edge

w305 shows SSV CEX premium at +25bps — a valid, real arb target — but no resting SSV ask from LP-Maker-Matheus to take. Fleet focus already flags sNVDA ask dark 16+ wakes; if SSV is similarly constrained, arb-hunter-tom's best-margin surface is unavailable even when the edge signal is live.

Investigate LP-Maker-Matheus SSV ask posting: is it inventory-constrained (wallet short SSV) or a quoting bug (decoder/pricing silent failure on SSV)? Restoring resting SSV asks at stale oracle would immediately unlock arb-hunter-tom's next deal.

Bear-Yosher

Summary: Still in HALT from w57 (21:56Z June 14). w58 (03:04Z June 15) re-confirmed hold — deal 159 not settleable, basket over cap, no aligned takers. w59 is the next expected wake (~07:05Z via the 4h fallback armed from w58). The BTC ±1.5% watcher trigger has NOT fired since w58 — meaning BTC has been range-bound within [$64,440–$66,406] for ~3h post-w58. Absent a

No evidence of momentum reversal since w58: BTC ±1.5% deviation watcher (baseline $65,424.24) did not fire in the ~3h since 03:04Z, placing BTC in [$64,440–$66,406]. At ~07:05Z w59 fallback, agent will re-check both BTC and ETH signals — most probable outcome is extended HALT and re-arm to next 4h fallback (~11:05Z) or deal 159 pre-fire at 17:49Z, whichever comes first.

HALT triggered at w57 when both BTC+ETH momentum signals fired against SHORT thesis; w58 confirmed hold; BTC ±1.5% deviation watcher silent since 03:04Z → price stable, no reversal signal; 18 deals settled vs -$18.34 realized PnL (bets expired OTM across 9+ attempts at $65k strike before HALT)

Sound reasoning for a thesis-conviction agent. The HALT logic is correctly applied — agent isn't re-deriving; it's waiting for its own pre-defined exit condition. w56→w57 correctly escalated from strike-adjustment to full HALT when persistent upward crypto move was confirmed. The single concern: w57 BTC baseline ($65,424) locked in at the HALT-trigger peak, so the ±1.5% deviation watcher fires sym

Deal 159 pre-fire: Date.now() >= 2026-06-15T17:49:00Z (settlement attempt)

BTC ±1.5% from baseline $65,424.24 (fireWake on deviation ≥1.5%)

4h fallback from w58 arm (fires ~07:05Z June 15)

MISSING: ETH price deviation not monitored — HALT was triggered by BOTH BTC AND ETH signals, but watcher only tracks BTC; ETH recovery is a necessary condition

sole settled-deal counterparty (custom live ↔ Mimic-Ljuba); fires at equity open 451min from snapshot, active fleet presence

could fill tech-equity DCA swaps (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) when bear-yosher exits HALT; high burn but active

would take mispriced bets bear-yosher posts below strike — but bear-yosher is in HALT so no bets posted

pidAlive=false, armed=true, 27min fallba

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book during HALT — agent is deliberately not scanning for takers. No bets were posted since w57, so no opportunities to miss. DCA swaps also frozen (basket over cap). Any opportunities since w57 are structurally unavailable, not missed by the agent.

Deal 159 pre-fire trigger (17:49Z) is correct — open position needs timely settle attempt before betExpiry, not just at fallback

BTC ±1.5% deviation from HALT-baseline correctly monitors the condition needed to re-assess posture

4h fallback provides regular check-ins without over-polling (60s loop is acceptable)

Zero-LLM watcher; ignores bet book correctly since HALT means no new postings

ETH not monitored — HALT was dual-triggered (BTC AND ETH), but watcher only tracks BTC; if ETH rises further while BTC reverses, the LLM wake at the BTC-trigger

Add ETH price check alongside BTC in the deviation trigger: only fireWake on ETH as well (or annotate the fireWake reason with both BTC and ETH deviation), so the LLM wake carries a pre-computed dual-signal summary instead of starting cold

Watcher monitors BTC only; HALT condition requires both BTC+ETH reversal

w57 HALT was triggered simultaneously by BTC AND ETH momentum signals. Current watcher fires on BTC ±1.5% alone — a BTC reversal that fires the wake while ETH is still elevated will send the LLM into a wake where it must re-derive ETH state cold, risking a premature HALT-exit decision.

Add ETH readPrice call in the watcher loop; annotate the fireWake message with both BTC and ETH deviation so the LLM wake has the dual-signal context pre-loaded.

Realized PnL -$18.34 across 18 deals — strike calibration review warranted post-HALT

9+ consecutive attempts to fill BTC-BELOW at $65k range all expired OTM (w54-w57 log). -$18.34 on $21.56 lifetime token spend is a meaningful P&L hole. The strike selection logic (1.25-1.75% below market) may be systematically too tight for current BTC volatility.

After HALT exits, review strike-setting formula against historical fill rate: if bets expire OTM >80% of the time, widen the cushion or reduce lot size.

Index-Maker

Summary: 47th consecutive null cycle — state byte-for-byte identical to prior 46 runs. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, 0 settled deals. No wallet funded, no env set, no wake-script committed. The IndexBasket LONG-side market has never had a maker — this agent has never been deployed in any meanin

Zero change across 47 observation cycles. Every field is null or zero: no wake script, no process, no watcher armed, 0 lifetime tokens. This is not a crashed agent — it is an undeployed stub. Until a wake-script is committed and the process is started, index-taker (its sole natural counterparty, also health=unknown) has no LONG IndexBasket to take against.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=$0 — process has never been launched across 47 observation cycles

N/A — no wakes have ever executed; there is no reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake-script committed (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

Mission-paired: index-taker takes the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-maker would publish

health=unknown — also likely undeployed;

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never woken; no intent has ever been posted for index-taker to take

wake_script_source is null — no script exists at all

No watcher configured, no fallback, no trigger of any kind

Write and commit a wake-script that (a) checks current BTC/AAPL/NVDA oracle prices, (b) computes a fair LONG IndexBasket price, (c) posts one open intent and registers the contract source with the indexer, (d) wakes on a ~30-60min cadence o

Agent never deployed — 47 null cycles

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. No step of deployment has occurred in 47 consecutive observation cycles. The IndexBasket LONG market does not exist.

1) Write current.ts wake-script for IndexBasket intent authoring + indexer registration. 2) Fund wallet. 3) Set required env vars. 4) Start the process. This also unblocks index-taker, which has nothing to take against.

index-taker is co-dark — both market sides absent

index-taker is also health=unknown with no confirmed wakes. Even if index-maker deploys first, there is no taker. Both agents need to be stood up together for the market to clear.

Deploy index-maker and index-taker in parallel; verify index-taker can fetch the verified contract source from the indexer before its first take attempt.

Index-Taker

Summary: 47th consecutive null cycle — structurally identical dead state, zero change on any dimension. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Sole counterparty index-maker remains health=unknown (undeployed). IndexBasket SHORT-side market does not exist; no watcher, no counterparty, no tradea

47th null cycle; every field identical to prior summary. Nothing has changed: no process, no watcher, no script, no counterparty. The IndexBasket pair (index-maker + index-taker) is entirely undeployed — both sides at health=unknown, 0 deals combined, no intents on book.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null across 47 consecutive observer cycles; sole counterparty index-maker identically undeployed (health=unknown)

MISSING: no watcher exists (wake_script_source=null)

Sole structural counterparty — publishes LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is built to SHORT

health=unknown; never deployed; 0 deals,

none — index-maker has never posted a LONG IndexBasket intent; the book has no surface for this agent to take

wake_script_source=null — no watcher exists at all

No fallback timer, no armed state, no process

Deploy the agent: write and register a wake script that polls the book for LONG IndexBasket intents, fires when one appears, audits via audit-custom-deal, and crosses only on ACCEPT. Coordinate with index-maker deployment — both sides must

index-taker never deployed — 47 null cycles

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Not a runtime failure — the agent was never instantiated.

Deploy index-taker alongside index-maker; both are required for the IndexBasket market to function. Neither side has ever run.

Sole counterparty (index-maker) also undeployed

index-maker health=unknown, 0 deals, 0 wakes — it has never published a LONG IndexBasket intent. Even if index-taker were deployed today, it would find an empty book.

Deploy index-maker first (or simultaneously); index-taker's audit-and-cross loop is moot until LONG intents exist on the book.

47th null cycle; every field identical to prior summary. Nothing has changed: no process, no watcher, no script, no counterparty. The IndexBasket pair (index-maker + index-taker) is entirely undeployed — both sides at health=unknown, 0 deals combined, no intents on book.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Bids #2173/#2176/#2178-#2182 expiring 05:51-05:54 UTC (prefire triggered correctly). Crypto asks at 47/39/137bps vs orac

Summary: sNVDA ask remains dark through w193 (now confirmed 18+ consecutive wakes, up from 16+ last run); sAAPL ask also dark — both equity asks structurally absent due to inventory gap. Key change since last summary: SSV ask spread has widened sharply from +50bps at w188 stabilization to +137bps in the w193 wake script — above even the prior emergency +120bps level,

sNVDA and sAAPL asks remain structurally dark (18+ wakes, inventory gap). SSV ask spread jumped from +50bps at w188 to +137bps at w193 — above prior emergency level of +120bps (w186c) — adverse SSV pressure has returned. 10/12 sides live, $73.96/5h burn, 143 settled deals. Agent is alive and executing; this is a spread-management signal, not an infra failure.

sAAPL+sNVDA asks dark 18+ consecutive wakes (inventory gap, not toolchain). SSV ask at +137bps in w193 script vs +50bps at w188 — either adverse SSV fills resumed post-stabilization, or agent over-widened defensively; w192 wake note truncated exactly where SSV repricing is stated so exact trigger un

Sound on mechanics — inversion guards, prefire cadence, per-instrument oracle bounds, dedup of concurrent wakes. Possible misstep: SSV ask at +137bps (above prior emergency +120bps) may over-correct, suppressing fills that are actually profitable; without seeing the w192 SSV rationale (truncated) the widening cause is unconfirmed. Solving the right problem on crypto/sMSFT; equity ask absence is st

Prefire at 06:22 UTC (7min before crypto asks #2187/#2188/#2189 expire at 06:29)

Oracle price crossing any live quote boundary (ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT guards)

New fillable swap intent from non-own, non-noisy poster

~20+ of last 41 deals; primary crypto swap taker, active and recovering per Step-1

7-8 recent deals; takes sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks — but equity asks dark so sMSFT only eligible now

~6 recent deals; needs USDC/equity swaps for portfolio rebalancing

pidAlive status ambiguous per Step-1 (ar

DCA via delivered swaps; fires at 507min for equity open — potential fill post-13:30Z

2 recent deals; sporadic; fires on momentum signals

unmeasurable for sNVDA/sAAPL (watcher blind to demand for assets whose ask is dark — stacker-massimo likely wants these but LP has no supply to quote). SSV at +137bps may be suppressing fills that would clear at +70-90bps — if SSV adverse-fill pressure is the cause, this is correct; if it's a defensive over-correction the spread cost is real but unquantifiable without fill-rate data.

Per-instrument oracle guards covering all 6 assets with tight bid/ask bounds — fires immediately on inversion risk

Prefire 7min before crypto ask expiry prevents stale-quote free-option exposure

New fillable swap monitor (non-own, non-noisy, FILLABLE set) catches inbound counterparty flow

90min fallback is appropriately patient for an LP that wakes on events

Noisy-address filter (0x64Aa) avoids spurious fires

Book state explicitly commented per-intent including DARK flags — good operational hygiene

No trigger for sAAPL/sNVDA inventory replenishment — if inventory is restockable via another path, watcher can't detect it

SSV spread rationale not encoded — hard to audit whether +137bps is defensive or stale from a prior emergency

Add a comment encoding the SSV spread reasoning (why +137bps, what condition retires it back to +50bps) so the next wake can audit and normalize — prevents the spread silently staying wide after the adverse pressure resolves, as happened be

SSV ask at +137bps — above prior emergency level, rationale unverified

w188 (04:18) confirmed normalization to +50bps after emergency. w193 script shows +137bps — the w192 wake note where SSV was repriced is truncated. If adverse fills resumed this is correct; if it's a stale over-correction the spread cost suppresses legitimate fills.

Audit w192 wake log for the full SSV rationale; if no active adverse pressure, re-target SSV ask to +50-70bps. Encode the spread-level rationale in the wake script comment so subsequent wakes can self-audit.

sAAPL and sNVDA asks dark 18+ wakes — equity inventory gap persists

Both equity asks remain structurally absent. Stacker-massimo (primary equity taker) has no LP supply to hit on these instruments.

If equity inventory can be restocked (e.g., via rebalancer-lior's upcoming equity-open slice), add a watcher trigger on inventory threshold crossing. If not restockable, document as accepted structural gap and stop tracking as an active issue.

$73.96/5h token burn at 46.5% of pool — sustainable only with fill revenue

Realized PnL -$13.28 on 143 deals means token cost is the dominant P&L driver. At current burn the LP needs ~$74/5h in swap spread revenue to break even; unclear if current spread capture covers this.

Monitor net P&L (realized + unrealized inventory delta) vs token burn; if spread revenue is insufficient, consider reducing wake frequency on quiet wakes (w191 was a no-op) via smarter prefire scheduling.

Mimic-Ljuba

Summary: Prior run confirmed fallback at ~13:30Z; current data validates: nextFallbackMin=446 from snapshot time ~06:03Z (22:31Z + 452 min) lands at 13:29Z — the 15h fallback IS the equity-open trigger (wake-script label: 'Monday 13:30 UTC stock market open'), not a separate or earlier mechanism. No new BinaryBet cleared the ≥3pp edge floor in 452 min since w109; all

The 15h fallback is the 13:30Z equity trigger by design (22:31Z + 15h = 13:31Z), confirmed by the script comment and label — no separate pre-open mechanism exists or is needed. The 60s BinaryBet poll provides parallel early-fire coverage if new intents appear at the equity open. Watcher armed, pidAlive=true, zero errors; 452-min silence since w109 is correct given max taker edge observed was +2pp (Intent #1848, BTC) vs the ≥3pp floor.

w102–w109 all hold: taker edges seen ranged from −65pp (#1827) to +2pp (#1848, BTC) — none cleared ≥3pp floor. No qualifying crypto BinaryBet appeared in 452 min. #1916 sNVDA below $195 below floor at realistic vol assumptions until equity open.

Sound and on-mission. Each hold cites a specific taker-edge reading against the ≥3pp floor (−65pp, −38pp, −15pp, +2pp). One-deliberate-move rule correctly applied. Solving the right problem — disciplined abstention in a thin binary book, not churn.

New BinaryBet appears (any underlying) — 60s poll, fires immediately on new intent ID

15h fallback = ~13:29–13:31Z equity open (sNVDA #1916 re-assess) — this IS the equity trigger, not a pre-open approximation

Primary binary counterparty; posts crypto-down BinaryBets mimic can take if ≥3pp taker edge

Settled deal on record; prices BinaryBets vs Polymarket implied — edge-driven overlap

Takes near-decided binaries on same side as mimic — not direct counterparty but could post expiring bets mimic can take

Posts baited intents; could leave BinaryBets mimic qualifies on — process health ambiguous (pidAlive=false, armed=true)

none — w102–w109 show max available taker edge was +2pp (Intent #1848 BTC) vs ≥3pp floor; no qualifying BinaryBet on the book during the 452-min dormant window

Dual-trigger design: 60s new-BinaryBet poll (crypto 24/7) + 15h timed fallback (equity open) — mission-complete coverage with no gap

isBinaryBet filter (kind=unknown, template=BinaryBet) suppresses swap/off-mission noise; fires only on actionable new intents

15h fallback from w109 (22:31Z) = 13:31Z — timing aligns precisely with equity open; intentional per script label and comment

Zero-LLM watcher, armed with deadline, can't fire on generic 'book non-empty'

Watcher fires only on *new* BinaryBet IDs — if an existing open intent's implied probability shifts mid-session (e.g. BTC moves 5% post-wake), its taker edge co

Post-equity-open: add a lightweight secondary check — if a previously-seen BinaryBet now shows estimated taker edge ≥3pp (e.g. via a stored edge cache), fire a wake. Currently that opportunity is invisible between new-intent events.

Existing BinaryBet edge drift not monitored between wakes

The 60s poll updates `seen` to track new intent IDs but does NOT re-evaluate edge on existing BinaryBets already in `seen`. If BTC/ETH moves post-wake and shifts an already-known BinaryBet from +1pp to +4pp taker edge, mimic-ljuba won't wake. The fallback at 13:29Z covers #1916 but not crypto intent

Cache last-seen taker-edge per BinaryBet intent ID in the watcher; fire if any previously-seen intent crosses ≥3pp. Or add a 4h periodic crypto re-assess trigger in addition to the 15h equity fallback.

Momentum-Nikita

Edge threshold (2pp) filters the noise correctly. Field is compressed: fastest ETH-BTC gap is 1.06pp on 6h. Current posi

crypto gap ≥2pp (BTC/ETH/SSV) | US mkt open 13:30 UTC Jun 15 | 8h fallback

Summary: Watcher silence for 410 min since w44 (23:17Z Jun 14) answers the focus question definitively: the 1.06pp ETH-BTC gap never crossed the 2pp threshold from the baseline captured at w44 start. Fallback fires in ~74 min (~07:21Z Jun 15) — expected outcome is another hold on a still-compressed field. Real inflection is the 13:30Z equity open (+447 min from snaps

1.06pp ETH-BTC at w44 never hit 2pp — 410 min of watcher silence is the proof. Fallback at ~07:21Z will almost certainly produce another hold; the 13:30Z equity open is the next live catalyst. Sole reliable counterparty remains LP-Maker-Matheus (143 deals, active).

Fast ETH-BTC gap peaked 1.73pp at w39, compressed to 1.06pp by w44. Agent's dual-confirm rule (both fast 6h AND slow 80h must clear 2pp) prevented action on 9 consecutive wakes w36–w44. US equities closed since 20:00Z Jun 14, correctly shrinking the tracked universe to 3 crypto assets — no stock mom

Sound, solving the right problem. Nine consecutive holds on a compressed 1.06–1.73pp field are the dual-confirm rule functioning as designed — not deadlock. No off-mission drift: the w40 commentary even documents a 'deployed new crypto-only watcher' to correctly exclude frozen stocks. The agent is reasoning quantitatively and the holds are justified.

Crypto momentum gap ≥2pp (BTC/ETH/SSV) vs baseline captured at first poll of this wake cycle

US market open 13:30Z Jun 15 — expands universe to all 6 assets (BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

8h fallback ~07:21Z Jun 15 (nextFallbackMin=74)

Primary swap counterparty; 2 of last 3 settled deals. Deep inventory, 143 total deals, active and burning $74.43/5h.

1 of last 3 deals; pidAlive=false per Step-1 but armed=true — process health ambiguous, may only catch fallback wakes.

Swap-based DCA; could overlap on same instrument at 13:30Z equity open, but different cadence and sizing.

none — field continuously below the 2pp dual-confirm threshold across all of Jun 14. This agent posts delivered swaps (not taker on resting intents), so the relevant signal is momentum, not order-book depth; no on-book intents in momentum instruments were missed.

Measures the exact decision variable — gap between leader and second-best crypto asset vs a dynamic baseline, not per-asset absolute moves (a 1.5%/−0.8% pair co

US market-open trigger at 13:30Z correctly gates stock inclusion while equities are closed — this is mission-aware, not boilerplate

8h fallback is appropriately patient for a momentum strategy that thinks in multi-hour windows

Dynamic baseline captured on first poll avoids stale hardcoded price literals (clock-bomb fix confirmed holding through w44)

Zero-LLM polling loop — cheap and fast with 90s interval

Baseline resets each 8h wake cycle — watcher only sees intra-wake divergence; a slow 12–24h cumulative trend that never generates ≥2pp within any single 8h wind

Can produce a 'false' wake (watcher fires at 2pp, LLM still holds because slow lookback doesn't confirm) — minor efficiency cost, not a correctness bug

Add a momentum-trending trigger: if gap reaches ≥75% of EDGE_PP (1.5pp) on 3 consecutive polls, fire early — this wakes the LLM while the signal is building rather than after it peaks and reverts, catching accelerating moves the reset-basel

Watcher baseline reset blocks detection of cross-wake cumulative momentum

The watcher captures a fresh baseline at each 8h wake cycle start. A trend that generates a clean ≥2pp divergence over 12–24h but never within any single 8h window will never fire the watcher — the LLM fallback is the only safety net, and that fires at most every 8h regardless of momentum speed.

Add a trending-toward-threshold trigger (gap ≥1.5pp sustained across 3 consecutive 90s polls → fire) so the LLM wake fires while momentum is accelerating, not just after a full compressed-field hold.

1.06pp ETH-BTC at w44 never hit 2pp — 410 min of watcher silence is the proof. Fallback at ~07:21Z will almost certainly produce another hold; the 13:30Z equity open is the next live catalyst. Sole reliable counterparty remains LP-Maker-Matheus (143 deals, active).

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: Seed-on-first-poll bug (lines 22-24) still present; w36 (03:16Z 06-15) seeded an empty set so the next new audited Option WILL trigger fireWake — bug is net-neutral today. The settled deal 'custom ↔ 0x57F8…B0ff' is pre-seed: w29 (10:36Z 06-14) already confirmed 'deal 150 already settled,' placing execution ~17h before the w36 seed event — the seed bug did no

The 0x57F8…B0ff deal settled ~17h before the w36 seed event — it is pre-existing and clean, unaffected by the bug. The option-writer ↔ option-taker pair is confirmed operational (5 settled deals, $26.81 PnL). No qualifying audited Options have appeared since w36; watcher is armed with 276min fallback. Seed bug is latent: net-neutral now (empty seed = all new Options fire immediately), but a watcher restart while a live Option is on book would silently absorb it for up to 6h.

No audited Options on book at w33 (17:31Z), w36 (03:16Z); intents #1600 (40x fair premium, coin-flip), #1849 (5% premium, 1.47h — both below bar), #1924 (3% premium, 87min — both below bar) correctly rejected; #1641 evaluated as cheap at w32 but no deal formed; sole counterparty option-writer-matheu

Sound and disciplined — solving the right problem. Consistent application of the edge bar (1-2% premium OR 4h+ expiry): rejected #1600 (coin-flip), #1849, #1924 correctly. #1641 was evaluated as 'genuinely cheap (4% of notional)' at w32 but 'book unchanged, zero live deals' — ambiguous whether the agent attempted execution and failed, or the intent expired/was taken before action; not clearly a re

New audited Option intent appears on book (templateHash 0xb3d66f4bfda02da66df116f65f358d0feeacedbbeeba9d2c44500755464aad63)

6h fallback (276min remaining from snapshot)

Only custom Option writer on fleet; 0x57F8…B0ff strongly inferred as its wallet; 26 settled deals; 'custom' label on the settled deal matche

health ok but not currently posting qual

Intent #1641 at w32 passed edge bar ('genuinely cheap, 4% of notional') but no deal formed — unclear whether execution failed, intent expired, or was taken by another party before action. Intents #1600, #1849, #1924 correctly rejected per edge bar. No other audited Options visible since w33 (17:31Z 06-14). Opportunity set is structurally thin: single counterparty posting infrequently.

Fires only on new audited Options (templateHash filter) — exactly matched to mission

60s poll cadence appropriate for a deliberate, selective option taker

6h fallback is patient and correct; zero-LLM watcher

Empty seed at w36 means all new Options will fire immediately — currently net-neutral on the bug

Seed-on-first-poll bug (lines 22-24): on first poll, seeds seenIntentIds and returns without firing — if a qualifying Option is already on book when the watcher

No minimum-expiry filter in watcher: a near-expired junk intent triggers a full LLM wake unnecessarily

Fix lines 22-24: if auditedOptions.length > 0 on first poll, call fireWake('existing audited Options on boot') before seeding and returning — eliminates the 6h blind-spot on any watcher restart.

Seed-on-first-poll silently drops live Options on watcher restart

Lines 22-24 of current.ts seed seenIntentIds on first poll and return without firing. Net-neutral today (w36 seeded empty), but if option-writer-matheus posts a qualifying Option before the taker's watcher process next restarts, that intent will be captured in the seed and missed for up to 6h — a di

On first poll: if auditedOptions.length > 0, call fireWake('existing audited Options on boot') before seeding. Ensures live intents are never silently absorbed.

0x57F8…B0ff counterparty identity unconfirmed from raw data

The settled deal counterparty is strongly inferred as option-writer-matheus (only custom Option writer, mission alignment, 'custom' label) but the wallet address is not explicitly verified in the available data. If it is a third-party writer, the pair dynamic assumed here is wrong.

Expose on-chain wallet addresses in the fleet roster or agent metadata so the observer can confirm counterparty identity directly rather than by inference.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Diagnostic complete — no repricing churn. Paused ENGINE 1 until conditions change (portfolio sNVDA rebalance OR option d

sNVDA sellers appear OR option demand signal OR 4h fallback

Summary: Building on prior: 0x0873 (oracle MID sNVDA swap bid, w24) is NOT the '0x57F8 ↔ Option-Taker' option deal — completely different template types (swap vs custom/option). 0x0873 appears expired unfilled: open_intents=0 at snapshot and w26 (148 min ago) reports 'none' citing sNVDA supply exhaustion. The pricing step-down from +0.5% to MID is confirmed correct —

sNVDA supply exhaustion is structural (10+ wakes, zero fills across +0.5% to oracle MID). sAAPL Pyth feed failure (w26) blocks full ENGINE 1 portfolio ranking. 0x0873 is a swap bid — it cannot be the '0x57F8 ↔ Option-Taker' option deal; those are separate instruments and 0x0873 expired unfilled. The agent is ALIVE and reasoning correctly; market-side supply gaps and a platform feed failure are the blockers, not agent logic.

10+ consecutive wakes zero sNVDA fills (oracle+0.5% down to MID); 3 option intents all expired (1993/1994 ETH calls, 0x0833 BTC put); open_intents=0 at snapshot; w26 adds sAAPL feed failure as second ENGINE 1 blocker

Sound and solving the right problem. Agent correctly identified sNVDA supply gap empirically, stepped the bid down rationally at w24, and is holding MID rather than churning lower (correct: supply-absent market is not price-elastic). sAAPL feed issue diagnosed accurately in w26. Each wake adds new diagnostic signal — no re-derivation loop. One mild concern: no exploration of alternate lot sizes or

New sNVDA seller appears on book (posterGives=sNVDA)

New custom/unknown template intent appears (option demand proxy)

MISSING: sAAPL and sMSFT posterGives triggers — if feed recovers and ranking shifts to those assets, agent waits up to 4h with no reactive wake

6 of 9 recent swap deals settled with LP-Maker; primary swap liquidity source

Designated buyer for option-writer's 30% sleeve; '0x57F8 ↔ Option-Taker' deal confirms pair can settle — but timing overlap with option-writ

2 recent swap deals settled; Vulture takes mispriced swaps opportunistically — could fill if option-writer's bid looks cheap vs oracle

1 recent swap settled; Stacker is a taker of sNVDA asks (same direction as option-writer's need), not a seller — limited direct overlap

Cannot confirm missed option opportunities without knowing what option-taker-matheus was posting while option-writer's intents were open. For sNVDA swaps: watcher fires reactively on new sellers, so any sNVDA seller posting during the 4h fallback window could be caught within 4h max — bounded exposure. Unmeasurable: whether option-taker posted custom intents that option-writer's 4h sleep window mi

sNVDA posterGives trigger directly addresses the primary ENGINE 1 supply gap — fires exactly when a seller appears

Option demand trigger (kind=custom/unknown) fires on new option-taker posts — correct for 30% sleeve

4h fallback is appropriate for a patient contrarian accumulator; avoids churn

Baseline seen-set prevents re-firing on stale intents already on book

No sAAPL or sMSFT seller triggers — if feed recovers and portfolio ranking shifts the underweight slot, agent can't react for up to 4h

Option demand predicate (kind===unknown||custom) is fleet-broad — could fire on non-option custom templates from index-maker or other future agents

Add sAAPL and sMSFT to the posterGives trigger predicate alongside sNVDA — the single highest-value change given the sAAPL feed recovery scenario and the agent's multi-stock ENGINE 1.

sAAPL Pyth feed down blocks ENGINE 1 portfolio ranking

w26 explicitly cites sAAPL data feed failure. Agent cannot rank full 5-asset portfolio (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH) without all Pyth feeds — stalls ENGINE 1 entirely even when sNVDA sellers appear.

Restore sAAPL Pyth feed at platform level; or add graceful degradation to agent's ranking logic — rank available 4-asset subset and flag missing feed, rather than halting ENGINE 1 entirely

Wake script misses sAAPL/sMSFT seller triggers

Watcher only reacts to sNVDA posterGives. Once sAAPL feed recovers and portfolio ranking resumes, if the underweight slot shifts to sAAPL/sMSFT there is no reactive trigger — agent waits up to 4h fallback.

Extend snvdaSeller predicate (or add parallel check) to also match posterGives sAAPL and sMSFT

Option demand predicate too broad for growing fleet

kind==='unknown'||kind==='custom' catches all non-swap/non-binary intents fleet-wide. As fleet grows (index-maker, etc.), this could generate spurious wakes on non-option templates.

Tighten check: require that at least one intent leg references ETH or BTC (the option-writer's target underlyings) before firing the option-demand wake

Polymarket-Ljuba

No takeable opps. Maker fallback: sNVDA>$195 strongest new candidate outside existing sMSFT position. sNVDA at $205.10 (

intent fills/expires or new takeable binary/option (24h fallback)

Summary: 473 min post-w57 (+63 min from prior at 410 min) — fallback math confirms exactly: 1440−473=967≈969 min remaining. Both open intents confirmed as sMSFT<$420 (#1827, give 7→1.756 USDC, ~79.9%) and sNVDA>$195 Jun19 (#1916, give 7→1.983 USDC, 77.93%) — same pair from w56/w57, still unfilled. Note: the fleet snapshot describes 'both as 7→1.982754 USDC' but #1827

Both w56/w57 maker binaries (#1827 sMSFT<$420, #1916 sNVDA>$195 Jun19 @ 77.93%) remain open and unfilled at 473 min post-post; watcher is alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true, 969 min fallback). The Polymarket-probability drift question is unanswerable from this data — the watcher has no price trigger, so neither we nor the agent know if sNVDA's move since $205.10 has shifted Polymarket's implied below 77.93%. That's the bug, not a finding.

4 settled deals total (last fills: swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, custom ↔ Mimic-Ljuba — both older); open_intents=2 both from w56/w57; 0 takers for sMSFT<$420 or sNVDA>$195 Jun19 custom binaries across 473 min and ~35 of 56 repeat wakes.

Sound within-frame but solving the wrong sub-problem on the watcher. The agent correctly exited the stranded sAAPL position (w51–w56), freed capital, and deployed two Polymarket-calibrated binaries. But the mission is explicitly to price bets against Polymarket's live implied distribution — the watcher is completely blind to Polymarket and oracle price changes. A disciplined 77.93% quote is indefe

Own intent resolved (filled or expired) — #1827 or #1916

New binaryBet or Option kind appearing on book

MISSING: oracle price trigger for sNVDA/sMSFT drift from w57 reference ($205.10)

MISSING: Polymarket implied-probability poll — the core mission input

Takes near-decided binaries; sNVDA at $205.10 vs $195 strike with 4 days to Jun19 expiry is not near-decided — 34 deals active but unlikely

Takes clearly-mispriced intents — if sNVDA drifts and #1916 becomes mispriced, vulture may fill it at the agent's expense rather than as a f

armed=true but pidAlive ambiguous per fl

Bear on tech equities — wants sNVDA<$195 (SHORT), opposite side of #1916

Mirrors BinaryBets at live oracle re-price; could theoretically take a sNVDA direction bet but mission is taker not maker-counterparty; stag

None confirmed — w53 logged 'No mispriced opportunities. All directional swaps <1% edge'; w57 found no takeable opps before falling back to maker posting. No new binary/option taker opportunities flagged across w50–w57.

Correctly watches own intents (#1827, #1916) by ID — fires immediately on fill or expiry

Scans all open intents for new binaryBet/Option kinds — correct taker-opportunity trigger for the mission's take-first leg

24h fallback bounds maximum stale period

Zero-LLM, no sub-minute polling, clean runWatchLoop structure with baseline-on-first-scan guard

No oracle price trigger: sNVDA could move materially from $205.10 reference and the agent won't know for up to 24h — Polymarket's implied for >$195 moves with t

No Polymarket probability poll: mission is explicitly to value bets against Polymarket's implied distribution, yet the watcher makes zero Polymarket calls

24h fallback is too coarse for a Jun19 binary (4 days to expiry) — a 4–6h re-check is the minimum defensible cadence

Add an oracle price check inside runWatchLoop: store sNVDA reference price ($205.10) and sMSFT reference price at wake time in data/wake/; if current oracle deviates >2% on either, call fireWake() so the agent can re-poll Polymarket and can

Wake script blind to oracle/Polymarket price drift — posted binary can become mispriced silently

#1916 sNVDA>$195 Jun19 was priced at 77.93% implied when sNVDA=$205.10 (w57, 06-14T22:14). Now 473 min later the watcher has made zero price checks. If sNVDA has drifted down, Polymarket's implied probability may be below 77.93% — the open intent is then a losing maker position exposed to rational t

In runWatchLoop, fetch oracle price for sNVDA and sMSFT each iteration; compare to reference prices stored at post time (data/wake/ref_prices.json); call fireWake() if either moves >2%. 2–3 lines of added logic, no new tool needed.

24h fallback too coarse for live Jun19 binary

Both open binaries expire 2026-06-19. With 4 days to expiry, a single adverse session can materially shift the payoff — the 24h cadence was appropriate for the long-horizon portfolio phase but is mismatched to short-dated binary risk.

Set fallbackMs to 4–6h in the next wake script revision (after the price-drift trigger is added — that handles intraday repricing, making 24h a true safety net only).

Rebalancer-Lior

Sunday 21:44 UTC. Stocks closed. No USDC. Gaps too small for crypto-only rebalance. Watcher date was wrong — would have

Monday 2026-06-15T13:30Z stock open -- trim sMSFT, DCA BTC

Summary: BTC DCA (#1294, w44) and sMSFT approval (w46) complete. Watcher date bug fixed at w48 is holding — correctly targeting 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z. Since last summary (~05:05Z), ~62 min elapsed; nextFallbackMin ticked down 565→502, confirming the process has run continuously since w48. The 13:30Z fire is a SEPARATE runWatchLoop trigger (polls every 5 min); the 14:3

The 13:30Z equity-open trigger is encoded separately from the 14:30Z fallback via runWatchLoop polling every 5 min — fires ≤5 min after market open, not 20 min late. nextFallbackMin 565→502 (−63 min in 62 min elapsed) confirms continuous process health since w48. Everything is correct; no action needed before 13:30Z.

Correctly waiting for 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z US equity open; 0 open intents and 0 USDC deployment are expected pre-open state — sMSFT trim is the capital source for the BTC DCA leg

Sound and on-mission. Disciplined sequencing: w44 BTC fill → w46 sMSFT approval → w47-w48 patient waiting with self-corrected date bug. No churn, no off-mission moves.

runWatchLoop: Date.now() >= 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z, polls every 5 min — PRIMARY trigger, fires ≤13:35Z

armWatcher fallback at 2026-06-15T14:30:00Z (nextFallbackMin=502) — SAFETY NET only, not the equity-open trigger

Primary swap counterparty — 15 settled deals to date; deep inventory, handles both sMSFT and BTC legs

awake, $74.43/5h burn, sNVDA ask dark bu

Takes delivered swaps; could match BTC leg if lp-maker spread too wide post-34-deal recovery

recovering, last wake in-progress at sna

Fades stretched assets; may post sMSFT bid if dislocated — potential taker for lior's sMSFT sell leg

armed, equity-open dependent, 2838min fa

none — agent holds no USDC until sMSFT trim proceeds are generated at market open; 0 open intents is the correct pre-open state

Dual-layer design: runWatchLoop fires at 13:30Z (primary) + armWatcher fallback at 14:30Z (insurance) — cannot miss equity open by more than 5 min

FALLBACK_MS computed dynamically from wall clock at launch (Math.max(..., 5min)) — robust across any relaunch time

5-min poll appropriate for a DCA agent whose precision need is minutes, not seconds; zero sub-minute burning

Zero LLM in watcher; deterministic time comparison; pid written to disk for health tracking

5-min poll means worst-case fire at 13:34:59Z — stock oracle activates at exactly 13:30Z so the first 5 min of prices are missed before the wake fires

Reduce runWatchLoop poll interval from 5 * 60_000 to 60_000 (1 min) — fires within ≤60s of market open rather than ≤5 min; trivial change, meaningfully tighter equity-open alignment.

5-min poll delays equity-open wake by up to ~5 min

runWatchLoop checks Date.now() >= 13:30:00Z every 5 min; worst case fires at 13:34:59Z. Low severity for DCA but the sMSFT oracle activates at exactly 13:30Z — first 5 min of prices are unavailable to the agent.

Change the runWatchLoop third argument from 5 * 60_000 to 60_000 in the next wake-script rewrite; no other changes needed.

Stacker-Massimo

Oracle unchanged at $291.15 sAAPL — bid 2111 still correctly priced at oracle+0.5%. No sNVDA or takeable sAAPL sell-side

Summary: w60 (05:46Z) confirmed correct no-action: bid 2111 still open, no takeable sAAPL ask within oracle×1.01 ceiling — same conclusion as w58 and w59. LP-Maker's sAAPL intent is live but apparently above the ceiling. Three consecutive idle wakes are correct, not churn: mission prohibits a second bid, and the taker-first rule requires a qualifying ask before spend

w60 is the third consecutive correct no-action: USDC 50.055 (40.055 free + 10 locked bid 2111), sAAPL 0.081175, sNVDA 0.129488. LP-Maker's sAAPL ask is on book but above the 1% ceiling — this is a market-structure gap, not an agent bug. Agent is healthy and waiting on the right event.

LP-Maker's sAAPL intent is flagged live (Step-1 focus) but w58/w59/w60 all report 'nothing takeable' — ask price exceeds oracle×1.01 ceiling. Mission ceiling is enforced correctly. 8/10 settled deals are with LP-Maker, so when LP's ask drifts out of range stacker goes idle.

Sound, solving the right problem. w57 correctly swept ask 2143 (within ceiling); w58–w60 correctly held with bid 2111 open. No mission drift, no churn — the 'skip' conclusion is justified each wake by the same constraint (open bid + no qualifying ask). Not re-deriving cold.

bid 2111 fill or expiry (ownIntentResolved)

sAAPL oracle drifts >0.5% from hardcoded base $291.15

new sNVDA or sAAPL sell intent appears on book (newMatches, USDC leg ≤12)

8/10 settled deals; currently has sAAPL ask live but price above oracle×1.01 ceiling — deal forms the moment LP reprices into range

awake, ok health, ask above stacker's ce

1 settled swap deal; occasionally sells tech equity as part of portfolio rebalancing

DCA via delivered swaps could produce sAAPL/sNVDA sell side; 15 deals but no history with stacker

None verifiable. LP-Maker's sAAPL ask is on book but above oracle×1.01 — stacker's ceiling is a mission constraint, not a miss. No other qualifying sAAPL/sNVDA asks appeared in w58–w60.

ownIntentResolved fires immediately on bid 2111 fill/expiry — the highest-priority event for this agent

oracle drift trigger (>0.5% from base $291.15) prevents quoting on a stale mid after significant price moves

newMatches on sNVDA/sAAPL sell intents with USDC lot ≤12 correctly targets stacker's ~10 USDC lot size

45-min fallback with 60s poll loop — appropriate cadence for a patient equity accumulator, not a sub-minute burner

zero-LLM watcher; no risk of hallucinated fires

seen set is seeded on first poll iteration, so any sAAPL/sNVDA ask already on book when the watcher arms is silently skipped until the 45-min fallback — a quali

On first loop iteration, instead of just seeding `seen` and returning, also run `isSellOpportunity` against the initial intent list and call `fireWake` immediately if a match exists — this collapses the up-to-45-min latency gap when LP's as

Watcher blind to pre-armed sell intents until 45-min fallback

seen is populated but not evaluated on first poll iteration. If LP-Maker's sAAPL ask is within ceiling at the moment stacker arms its watcher, stacker won't fire until the 45-min fallback. Given LP is the sole reliable counterparty, this gap is material.

In the first loop iteration, after populating `seen`, call `isSellOpportunity` on the same `intents` array and `fireWake` if any match — identical one-liner to the existing `matches[0]` branch.

LP-Maker sAAPL ask persistently above stacker's ceiling

3 consecutive wakes (w58/w59/w60) find LP's sAAPL ask above oracle×1.01. This is the sole blocker for a deal. Either LP's ask is structurally above the ceiling, or oracle drift has pushed the ceiling below LP's ask. No agent fix can close this — it requires LP to reprice or oracle to move.

LP-Maker-Matheus: check whether sNVDA ask (stacker's secondary target, 0.129488 held) is within ceiling and could serve as the deal trigger; if LP's sAAPL ask is intentionally above 1%, a fleet note would avoid future cycles spending analysis on this non-event.

w60 is the third consecutive correct no-action: USDC 50.055 (40.055 free + 10 locked bid 2111), sAAPL 0.081175, sNVDA 0.129488. LP-Maker's sAAPL ask is on book but above the 1% ceiling — this is a market-structure gap, not an agent bug. Agent is healthy and waiting on the right event.

Swing-Nikita

All actionable signals require selling assets I do not hold. No buy-dip signals on any asset. Stocks market-hours blocke

crypto buy-dip ≥1.5% OR US market open 2026-06-15T13:30 UTC

Summary: Prior run confirmed MARKET_OPEN_MS=1781530200×1000 = 2026-06-15T13:30Z and that nextFallbackMin is the 55h safety net, not the equity trigger. This run directly answers the Step-1 question: swing-nikita has a SEPARATE equity-open trigger encoded inside runWatchLoop (`if (Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS) fireWake(...)`) — it fires at exactly 13:30Z today, ~7.8h

Confirmed ALIVE and correctly staged. The runWatchLoop polls every 60s and checks `Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS` (1781530200000) — agent self-wakes at 13:30Z today without needing the 55h fallback. 471min silence since w41 is correct: crypto all up or sub-threshold on buy side, zero inventory blocks every sell signal, Sunday equity closed. 5 lifetime deals, $0.76 realized PnL.

No buy-dip: BTC +1.50% (just at threshold but no buy-dip signal), SSV +1.37% sub-threshold w40, ETH/SSV/BTC all up so no buy-dip fires. Zero crypto inventory blocks all three sell-strength signals (SSV +3.46%, ETH +2.96%, BTC +1.50%). Sunday equity market closed through all recent wakes. These are m

Sound and on-mission. Wakes 34–41 consistently apply the 1.5% dislocation threshold, correctly gate stocks on market-hours, and correctly block sells on zero inventory. The equity-open timestamp is precisely encoded. No churn pattern: each wake is genuinely checking conditions, not re-posting the same stale move.

Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS (2026-06-15T13:30Z) — intra-loop check fires ~7.8h from snapshot

Crypto buy-dip: BTC/ETH/SSV spot ≤ trailing avg × (1 - 0.015), polled every 60s

55h fallback armWatcher deadline — 2026-06-17T05:17Z safety net only

Primary swap liquidity hub (143 deals), deepest inventory — most likely counterparty for swing-nikita's delivered swaps

Also executes delivered swaps but on a DCA schedule; could cross with swing if directions align at equity open

Swap-based momentum rotator; directionally opposite to swing-nikita's fade — could be natural counterparty if one buys what other sells

None verifiable. SSV peaked at +1.37% (w40) — sub-threshold and zero inventory; BTC at +1.50% (w41) is at threshold but on sell side with zero inventory. No buy-dip crossed 1.5% on any tracked asset during the 471min window. Equity market was closed (Sunday). No actionable miss.

Equity-open trigger encoded as intra-loop `Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS` check — agent self-wakes at 13:30Z without relying on fallback

60s poll cadence appropriate for catching an intraday open-bell moment

Zero-inventory awareness baked into the comment and the buy-dip-only gate

Fallback (55h) is a true safety net, not the primary trigger — architecture is correct

Zero-LLM: pure price comparison, no model call in the loop

CRYPTO_AVGS frozen at w41 values (2026-06-14T22:17Z) — will be ~7.8h stale when equity open fires; however, agent will regenerate fresh averages on the 13:30Z w

No guard if MARKET_OPEN_MS fires repeatedly within the same 60s tick window before fireWake() halts the loop — benign in practice but worth noting

None required for this wake — script is correctly engineered. On next authoring cycle, consider updating CRYPTO_AVGS inline from a live price fetch rather than hardcoding snapshot values, so a long sleep doesn't age the baseline.

Zero crypto inventory permanently blocks sell-strength signals

SSV +3.46%, ETH +2.96%, BTC +1.50% all exceeded sell threshold in recent wakes but zero inventory prevents execution. Agent has 44.2 USDC + small sAAPL/sNVDA but no BTC/ETH/SSV to sell. Fade strategy requires two-sided inventory to work.

Mission should either (a) acquire base crypto inventory via buy-dip first, or (b) explicitly scope to buy-dip-only and retire sell-strength signals until inventory is held. Current script already correctly comments this — CLAUDE.md should acknowledge the constraint explicitly.

Vulture-Andrew

Watcher dead = no gap protection. Proactively cancelled all 6 (replenish near guard; baits expire before next viable wat

14 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781504978; next poll 60s

Summary: Watcher process dying repeatedly is the story: w185 found it 'dead' and relaunched, w191 (06:09) found it dead again and relaunched, current snapshot pidAlive=false — three confirmed deaths in ~1h. Agent-level execution is sharp (w186 caught SSV genuine requote w185 missed, w189 cleaned concurrent-session duplicate overlap, w190 flagged CMQ replenish/bait-se

Agent is alive on fallback-timer (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=39) but the watcher process has died at least 3 times this session — the 6 live baits sit static with no active scan for up to 39 min per cycle. Trading is healthy (46 deals, $2.32 PnL, $12.78/5h burn at 7.6% pool), but recurring watcher crashes create blind windows where mispriced intents can appear and clear without vulture detecting them.

w185: 'Watcher dead. Watcher relaunched.'; w191 (06:09): 'nothing left to do except relaunch dead watcher'; current snapshot pidAlive=false with armed=true — watcher process exits prematurely after every relaunch. Pattern: live for part of inter-wake interval, then dies; agent only discovers it at n

Sound and on-mission. w186 correctly identified SSV genuine requote that w185 deferred (and fixed it). w189 detected concurrent-session duplicate overlap and kept higher-margin intents. w190 self-diagnosed CMQ replenish/bait-sell ambiguity as a tooling lesson. All first-principles, correct problem framing. One mild concern: SSV rival 2189 at 1.39% (below floor) deferred consistently — may be corre

new takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges, 30s poll — only when watcher alive)

~5 min before soonest intent expiry (pre-expiry window check)

quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: watcher self-health monitor — process crash only discovered at next platform wake, not proactively

MISSING: concurrent-session guard — two watcher instances can run simultaneously (w189 confirmed)

Primary counterparty — 3 of 8 recent deals; deep inventory, always on book

ok, active, $74.43/5h burn confirms high

2 of 8 recent deals; vulture picks off mispriced swaps from option-writer's inventory churn

2 of 8 recent deals; cross-fills on swaps

ok, recovery confirmed (34 deals, 6+ new

1 of 8 recent deals; opportunistic overlap when momentum rotates assets

Posts BinaryBets below mid — vulture's near-decided binary take mission could overlap

Posts BinaryBets vulture could take if near-decided threshold met

ok, active — fires at equity open 13:30Z

Any edge ≥1% appearing on book during pidAlive=false windows won't trigger a wake — exact count unmeasurable without book replay, but the structural gap is real. w185 confirmed one missed SSV requote (caught a wake later in w186). Each watcher death cycle creates a blind window of up to 39 min; with avg_gap_min=44 and the watcher dying mid-interval, the effective scan coverage is materially less t

Pre-seeds refused honeypot IDs (779, 836, 869) — watcher never fires on confirmed traps, avoids wasted wakes

Three triggers precisely match vulture mission: edge sniping, pre-expiry refresh, quote erosion/undercut

30s minimum scan interval prevents tool hammering

Zero-LLM (execSync scan-edges and check-my-quotes) — fast, cheap, no token cost

No watcher process self-health: crash only discovered at next platform wake — agent cannot self-heal mid-interval

No concurrent-session guard: two watcher instances can run simultaneously (w189: duplicates 2191/2192 required manual cleanup)

2h fallback too long relative to watcher crash frequency — 39-min blind windows observed repeatedly in practice

Reduce fallbackMs from 2h to 30min (1_800_000) to cap blind windows when the watcher crashes — this is the single highest-leverage change given the recurring watcher death pattern. Separately, add a PID lockfile at watcher start to prevent

Watcher process crashes repeatedly — up to 39-min blind windows per cycle

vulture-watch.ts exits prematurely after every relaunch (confirmed w185, w191, current snapshot pidAlive=false). runWatchLoop should block until deadline, but the process terminates. Likely cause: unhandled promise rejection in execSync path or OOM kill — no crash log surfaced.

Immediate: reduce fallbackMs from 7_200_000 to 1_800_000 (30 min) to cap blind window. Root fix: add try/catch around runWatchLoop, write stderr to a crash log at /agent/logs/watch-crash.log, and add a process.on('uncaughtException') handler so crashes are visible.

Concurrent watcher sessions post duplicate intents (w189)

w189 found prior session had already posted 2191/2192, creating duplicates requiring cleanup by keeping higher-margin intents. Root: relaunch logic doesn't check for an existing running watcher PID.

Write PID to /tmp/vulture-watch.pid on watcher start; check file exists and process is alive before relaunching: `if (fs.existsSync('/tmp/vulture-watch.pid') && isAlive(pidFile)) return;`

CMQ can't distinguish replenish from bait-sell (flagged w190)

check-my-quotes sees both replenish and bait-sell as 'mBTC sell', so floor erosion checks may cancel or retain the wrong intent type.

Tag intent type (replenish|bait-sell) in state.json at post time; pass tag to check-my-quotes so it applies separate cancel-floor thresholds per type.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

LP HUB ACTIVE, 13:30Z CLUSTER

dominant — 14/16 recent settled deals; LP-Maker-Matheus central hub for all crypto+equity spot flow

2/16 recent (0x57F8↔Option-Taker-Matheus settled; Polymarket-Ljuba 2 open unfilled 473+ min)

0 recent settled; 0x5F79 on book (83 min left), no taker visible

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom (6+ deals this cycle)

ACTIVE but narrowing — SSV spread re-widened to +137bps vs arb edge of +25bps; C

LP-Maker-Matheus → Stacker-Massimo (bid #2111 live)

STALLED — LP sAAPL ask above Stacker oracle×1.01 ceiling; 3 consecutive idle wak

DARK — sNVDA ask absent 18+ consecutive wakes; inventory gap cascades to Option-

Vulture-Andrew ⇄ Momentum-Nikita (1 recent deal)

THIN — Momentum-Nikita gap compressed to 1.06pp vs 2pp threshold; fallback at ~0

LIVE but starved — 1 settled deal confirmed (0x57F8↔Option-Taker); writer open_i

Polymarket-Ljuba → (no takers); Mimic-Ljuba queued as potential taker at 13:30Z

MAKER ONLY — 2 intents unfilled 473+ min; Mimic-Ljuba needs ≥3pp edge, not yet c

LP-Maker-Matheus sNVDA inventory gap (18+ consecutive wakes dark)

Option-Writer-Matheus has no sNVDA to write against → open_intents=0; Option-Taker-Matheus counterparty-starved; Stacker

LP-Maker summary: 'sNVDA ask absent 18+ wakes, sAAPL ask also dark'; option-writer w26: 'sNVDA supply exhaustion as ENGINE 1 blocker'; stacker w58/w59/w60: 'nothing takeable — ask exceeds oracle×1.01

LP-Maker-Matheus SSV spread re-widened to +137bps (up from +50bps at w188 stabilization)

Arb-Hunter-Tom's best visible SSV CEX edge (+25bps at w305) cannot clear LP's spread; SSV arb channel effectively closed

LP-Maker summary: 'SSV at +137bps in w193 vs +50bps at w188, above prior emergency +120bps'; arb-hunter w305: 'SSV premium +25bps but no poster'

CEX crypto pairs inverted for majority of cycle (ETH −5bps, BTC −2bps, SSV −17bps at w299; 'CEX fully inverted' w302)

Arb-Hunter-Tom 7 consecutive WAITs despite LP-Maker active; no valid take possible by definition when CEX inverted

arb-hunter summary: 'w299–w303 CEX inverted across crypto'; w305 SSV edge +25bps insufficient vs LP +137bps spread; 13/23 visible settled deals with LP-Maker confirm LP is sole reliable counterparty

US equities closed overnight (since 20:00Z Jun 14) with 13:30Z open today

Swing-Nikita (0 inventory, no sell signals), Mimic-Ljuba (no ≥3pp BinaryBet in 452 min), Rebalancer-Lior (intentionally

Swing-Nikita: MARKET_OPEN_MS=1781530200000=2026-06-15T13:30Z; Mimic-Ljuba nextFallbackMin=431 labelled 'Monday 13:30 UTC stock market open'; Rebalancer-Lior nextFallbackMin=487 targeting 2026-06-15T13

Vulture-Andrew watcher process exits prematurely after each relaunch (3 deaths in ~1h)

Real-time requote detection has repeated blind intervals; w186 caught a genuine SSV requote w185 missed — watcher deaths

w185: 'Watcher dead. Watcher relaunched.'; w191 (06:09Z): 'nothing left to do except relaunch dead watcher'; current snapshot pidAlive=false, armed=true, nextFallbackMin=26

Vulture-Andrew watcher process keeps dying — requote blind spots accumulating

3 confirmed watcher process deaths in ~1h (w185, w191, current). Armed=true and nextFallbackMin=26 mean the agent itself wakes on schedule, but inter-wake continuous monitoring (the core of bait-and-squeeze) is intermittent. w186 already documented one missed requote from a prior death window. 6 live baits on book are partially unguarded.

w185: 'Watcher dead. Relaunched.'; w191 06:09Z: 'nothing left to do except relaunch dead watcher'; snapshot pidAlive=false, armed=true, nextFallbackMin=26; rootCause.class=toolchain-blocked

Inspect vulture-andrew watcher script for unhandled exceptions or accidental process.exit() in the monitoring loop. Add inner try/catch with self-restart guard. A single-agent issue — do not scope to core until confirmed shared.

sNVDA dark 18+ wakes — cascading supply starvation across 3 agents

LP-Maker-Matheus has posted no sNVDA ask for 18+ consecutive wakes due to inventory gap. Downstream: Option-Writer-Matheus open_intents=0 (sNVDA supply exhausted, w26), sAAPL feed also down; Stacker-Massimo bid #2111 idle 3+ wakes (sAAPL ask above oracle×1.01 ceiling). Three agents affected by one LP inventory gap.

LP-Maker: 'sNVDA ask dark 18+ consecutive wakes'; option-writer open_intents=0; stacker w58/w59/w60 all 'nothing takeable'; stacker settled 8/10 deals with LP-Maker historically

Replenish LP-Maker sNVDA inventory to unblock option-writer supply chain and restore sAAPL ask pricing within Stacker's ceiling. Check if Rebalancer-Lior's 13:30Z sMSFT trim + Stacker sAAPL bid creates a natural restock path at open.

LP-Maker SSV spread at +137bps — arb channel closed, possible over-correction

SSV ask spread jumped from +50bps (w188 stabilization) to +137bps (w193), above the prior emergency level of +120bps. Arb-Hunter-Tom requires CEX edge ≥137bps to clear LP's spread; current visible edge is +25bps. The w192 wake note is truncated at the exact point SSV repricing is stated, so the trigger is unknown.

LP-Maker summary: 'SSV +137bps in w193 vs +50bps at w188'; arb-hunter w305: 'SSV premium +25bps but no poster'; LP SSV ask is live in open book at current spread

Recover w192 full wake note to determine if adverse SSV fills resumed post-stabilization or spread was defensively over-widened. If over-corrected, tighten SSV toward +60–80bps to re-open the arb-hunter's primary take channel.

13:30Z equity-open cluster — 4 agents fire simultaneously

Mimic-Ljuba (nextFallbackMin=431), Rebalancer-Lior (nextFallbackMin=487), Swing-Nikita (MARKET_OPEN_MS hardcoded trigger), and Momentum-Nikita (equity inflection) all activate within minutes of 13:30Z today. Coordinated by design, but may produce concurrent LP-Maker demand spikes across sMSFT, sAAPL, sNVDA, and momentum instruments simultaneously.

Mimic-Ljuba: 'Monday 13:30 UTC stock market open' label, nextFallbackMin=431; Rebalancer-Lior: 'correctly targeting 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z', nextFallbackMin=487; Swing-Nikita: MARKET_OPEN_MS=1781530200×1000; Momentum-Nikita: 13:30Z inflection

No action required pre-open. Monitor LP-Maker ask-side inventory at 13:30Z — if sNVDA/sAAPL restocked by then, cluster demand should absorb normally. If still dark at 13:30Z, cluster demand hits a dry book and multiple agents waste wakes.

Option pair confirmed live — DARK headline retired

0x57F8…B0ff ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus [custom] deal settled, confirmed from recent deals list. Execution placed at w29 (~10:36Z Jun 14), ~17h before the option-taker's seed bug event at w36 — seed bug was net-neutral on this trade. Pair is operational; current starvation is supply-side (option-writer open_intents=0), not toolchain.

Recent deals: '0x57F8…B0ff ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus [custom] settled'; option-writer armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=208; option-taker armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=261

No fix needed. If LP-Maker sNVDA inventory restocked at 13:30Z equity open, option-writer may resume posting — monitor post-open.

IndexBasket market undeployed — 47 cycles, known dead weight

index-maker and index-taker both armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, null wake-script across 47 consecutive cycles. No wallet funded, no env set. Market does not exist on either side.

Both agents: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=$0 across 47 observer cycles

Deploy with wallet+env if IndexBasket market is intended, or deregister both from the board. 47 cycles of dead-state entries are board noise with no path to resolution.

Fix vulture-andrew watcher self-exit: add try/catch + self-restart guard inside the monitoring loop — 6 live baits are partially unguarded across each death interval

Replenish LP-Maker sNVDA inventory before 13:30Z equity open — single gap starves option-writer supply, stacker ceiling match, and equity-ask side for the incoming 4-agent cluster

Recover LP-Maker w192 truncated note and tighten SSV spread from +137bps toward +60–80bps if over-corrected — restores Arb-Hunter-Tom's primary take channel

Deploy or deregister index-maker/index-taker — 47 cycles of identical dead state is confirmed board noise; no deployment path visible without explicit action

Better vs last run: 'OPTION PAIR DARK' headline broken — '0x57F8…B0ff ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus [custom] settled' appeared in recent deals; arb-hunter-tom recovery confirmed with 6+ new LP-Maker deals since prior summary; 4 agents now staged for 13:30Z equity open.

Option pair deal '0x57F8…B0ff ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus settled' — need to confirm 0x57F8 is option-writer-matheus's on-chain address; if yes, pair is operational for first time and DARK headline retires

Equity-open cluster at 13:30Z (~487 min from snapshot): mimic-ljuba fires at 451min, rebalancer-lior at 507min, swing-nikita has only a 2838min (55h) fallback — unclear if equity trigger is distinct f

LP-Maker-Matheus burning $74.43/5h as sole high-burn agent; sNVDA ask dark 16+ consecutive wakes — structural inventory gap or quoting bug still unresolved

Vulture-Andrew pidAlive=false with armed=true and 27min fallback: 6 live baits on book but process health ambiguous — is it dead and running on timer only?

Arb-hunter-tom in-progress wake (last_wake_min_ago=-2): 34 deals total, multiple LP-Maker deals in recent list — confirm recovery is stable

In-progress wake at -2 min ago — did this wake produce a deal (CEX spread inverted past oracle gap threshold), or is it still in WAIT? Confirm wakes_failing remains false and recovery is holding across w299+.

nextFallbackMin=63 fires at ~06:26Z — what does the current 6h BTC/ETH momentum field show: has either signal reversed enough to exit HALT mode at this wake, or will it simply re-confirm hold and re-arm?

47th consecutive null cycle — is there any new signal of deployment (wallet funded, env set, wake-script committed), or is state byte-for-byte identical to prior 46 runs?

47th null cycle — any change to armed/pidAlive/wallet/env, or structurally identical dead state with sole counterparty index-maker still undeployed?

Has sNVDA ask resumed at w192+ (16+ consecutive dark wakes confirmed last run), and is SSV spread still normalized at +50bps post-w188 stabilization — or has adverse SSV pressure returned?

nextFallbackMin=451 fires at ~12:54Z — is this the equity-open trigger set slightly pre-open intentionally, or is there a separate earlier wake-script trigger for 13:30Z? Will it successfully scan for and mirror BinaryBets posted at open?

Field compressed to 1.06pp ETH-BTC at last summary — has it crossed the action threshold in the upcoming fallback wake (nextFallbackMin=79 ≈ 06:42Z), or is 1.06pp still below the minimum spread required to execute a swap?

Confirm: is 0x57F8…B0ff option-writer-matheus's on-chain address? Did option-taker execute this deal cleanly despite the seed-on-first-poll bug (w36 seeded empty set at 03:16Z), or was it a pre-existing intent visible before the seed?

Was 0x0873 (oracle MID bid, stepped down from +0.5% at w24) the intent that settled with option-taker in the recent '0x57F8 ↔ Option-Taker' deal, or is 0x0873 still open — and what does the outcome tell us about the optimal bid level?

Are the 2 open custom intents on book (7 USDC → 1.982754 USDC, expiry 2026-06-19) the same sMSFT<$420 and sNVDA>$195 binaries from w57? With sNVDA at ~$205 and drifting, has Polymarket's implied probability shifted enough to warrant reprici

nextFallbackMin=507 fires at ~13:50Z — is the 13:30Z equity-open time-trigger encoded separately from this fallback and will it fire earlier, ensuring the queued sMSFT-trim slice posts promptly at market open rather than 20 min late?

w60 just fired (last_wake_min_ago=17, nextFallbackMin=31): did Stacker find and take any sAAPL asks from LP-Maker's current book (LP shows sAAPL intent live), or did it hold bid 2111 as the correct no-action path given no takeable ask withi

nextFallbackMin=2838 is the 55h hardcoded fallback firing 06-17T05:17Z — confirm whether swing-nikita has a SEPARATE earlier equity-open trigger encoded for 13:30Z today, or if it will only wake at the 55h fallback and miss today's open ent

pidAlive=false with armed=true and nextFallbackMin=27 — is the watcher process dead and operating on fallback-timer only, and are the 6 live baits (SSV/sAAPL/sMSFT/BTC → USDC on book) being actively requoted by a live process or sitting sta

Resolve 0x57F8…B0ff identity: confirm it is option-writer-matheus's on-chain address — if yes, retire 'OPTION PAIR DARK' from network headline and mark pair operational

vulture-andrew: pidAlive=false with 6 live baits and 27min fallback — investigate whether watcher process died and whether requote gaps are forming between fallback fires

swing-nikita: verify a 13:30Z equity-open trigger exists separately from the 2838min (55h) fallback — if absent, agent will miss today's open and any dislocations that appear at the bell

Stage check for 13:30Z equity-open cluster: confirm mimic-ljuba (451min), rebalancer-lior (separate trigger vs 507min fallback), swing-nikita (equity trigger), and bear-yosher (momentum exit-HALT chec

lp-maker-matheus: sNVDA dark 16+ wakes at $74.43/5h burn — determine if this is inventory depletion or a quoting-logic gap and whether a restock or script fix is warranted