Arb-Hunter-Tom

W3 (18:27): 'no binary bets' despite mimic-ljuba's bet having ~33min left. W4 (19:25): post-expiry, took a swap instead. Watcher's seen-set baseline on arm means any bet already on-book never triggers a wake, regardless of approaching expiry or CEX oracle divergence. The 2h fallback (118min remainin

New binary bet posted (correct for newly-arrived bets)

New swap intent posted (any kind — edge filter happens in-agent)

MISSING: re-evaluation trigger for baseline bets approaching expiry (≤45min) with potential CEX oracle divergence

Posts BinaryBets arb-hunter is designed to take when CEX oracle diverges; current bet (8+6.55 USDC, ~55% side A) is exactly the target surfa

Posts resting swap intents (11 on book per Step-1); arb-hunter's fallback surface — already proved viable (swap #22, #23 attempt)

Also prices binaries against Polymarket; could post bets arb-hunter can take if CEX diverges from Polymarket implied

Same taker role — competitor for the same opportunities, not a counterparty

Fires on new binary bets and new swap intents — correct surfaces for latency arb

Baseline-then-delta prevents spurious wakes on stale book state

60s poll cadence appropriate for latency-sensitive mission

2h fallback ensures agent doesn't sleep forever in a quiet book

Baseline-then-delta silently drops any bet already on-book when watcher arms — these never fire a wake even if they have 45min left and the CEX oracle diverges

2h fallback is too coarse for a mission whose primary surface (binary bets) can have windows of 30-60min — agent can sleep through the entire opportunity

Watcher baseline silently drops existing binary bets

The seen-set is populated on arm, and newMatches() only fires on intents NOT in seen. A binary bet already on-book when the watcher starts is permanently invisible until the next full wake (at most 2h later). This is exactly what likely caused the mimic-ljuba bet miss.

In the watch loop, after baseline is set, check seen-set bets for expiry ≤45min and call fireWake() for them — treating near-expiry as equivalent to 'new' for arb purposes.

2h fallback too coarse for 30-60min binary bet windows

Primary mission is near-decided binary bets. A bet posted at T=0 expiring at T+45min may be missed entirely if the watcher arms at T=5 with a 2h fallback and no new intents post. W4 at 19:25 ran 25min after the 19:00 bet expired.

Reduce fallbackMs to 30 * 60_000 (30min). Simple, no logic change, ensures at least one re-evaluation per typical binary bet window.

USDC-only portfolio limits swap taker surface

W3 explicitly noted 'Only USDC held — cannot fill intents requiring crypto as the give-leg.' With 2 SSV now held from deal #1, this is partially resolved, but the constraint remains for most swap surfaces. Noted as structural in prior summary.

No immediate fix needed — natural inventory builds with each deal. Monitor whether SSV holding enables new swap legs next cycle.

Bear-Yosher

Bear thesis intact (SHORT posture). No aligned binary to take. Posted standing BELOW bet + started tech basket via sNVDA

intent-48 resolved | ETH +1.5% adverse | new tech sell | 4h fallback

Summary: Sixth consecutive cycle: zero observable change from last run. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, lifetime spend still frozen at $0.78 — identical to cycles 1–5. The single initialization run settled 1 swap (↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, -$2.36 realized PnL) and left 1 open intent (a BinaryBet per Step-1 note) orphaned on-book with no watcher to man

Six cycles, $0.78 spend, 0 wakes, 0 watcher registration — this is not a resting agent, it is a crashed init. One orphaned BinaryBet intent sits on-book unmanaged; the agent cannot cancel, update, or respond to price moves against it.

wake_script_source=null across all 6 cycles; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; lifetime spend $0.78 frozen since cycle 1; 0 wakes recorded; 1 settled deal (swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus) and 1 open intent are both residue from the single initialization call — no subsequent activity

Cannot assess — 0 wakes, no reasoning trace. The initialization call completed (hence $0.78 spend and the 1 settled swap) but produced no running process and no watcher. No loop, no churn, no mission execution of any kind for 6 cycles.

MISSING: no watcher registered — nextFallbackMin=null, no price trigger, no book trigger, no timer

arb-hunter-tom targets near-decided BinaryBets — bear-yosher's orphaned open BinaryBet is exactly this target class

armed (Step-1 confirms active this cycle

mimic-ljuba accepts winnable open BinaryBets re-priced to live oracle — bear-yosher's orphan is a candidate

armed=true, pidAlive=true as of this cyc

takes near-decided binaries — depends on how close bear-yosher's bet is to resolution

swap counterparty only; already settled the one swap from initialization

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — bear-yosher has no running process and cannot observe or act on any opportunity. The orphaned BinaryBet may itself be a missed opportunity for arb-hunter-tom or mimic-ljuba to take, not an opportunity for bear-yosher.

wake_script_source=null — no script exists or was never written to disk

No watcher registered in 6 consecutive cycles

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — agent cannot self-rescue

Manual re-deploy is the only path — no script to fix. On re-deploy, the wake script must register a watcher with at minimum a periodic fallback (e.g., 4h) and a price-move trigger (>2% ETH/BTC move) consistent with the halt condition in mis

Permanent initialization failure — no watcher ever registered

6 cycles, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null. The $0.78 init call completed but left no running process. Orphaned BinaryBet intent on-book with no managing agent — cannot cancel or respond to adverse price moves.

Manual re-deploy of bear-yosher. Verify on re-deploy that wake_script_source populates and armed=true before closing the ticket.

Orphaned open BinaryBet intent — unmanaged position risk

1 open intent (BinaryBet) posted at initialization, no agent alive to cancel if ETH/BTC moves persistently >2% against the short — the exact halt condition in mission. realized_pnl already -$2.36 from the one settled swap.

Before or immediately after re-deploy, manually inspect and if appropriate cancel the open BinaryBet intent to prevent unmanaged loss on a dead agent's position.

Six cycles, $0.78 spend, 0 wakes, 0 watcher registration — this is not a resting agent, it is a crashed init. One orphaned BinaryBet intent sits on-book unmanaged; the agent cannot cancel, update, or respond to price moves against it.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Summary: Recovery is genuine and clean. The 18:38 wake (w1) detected all 12 pre-crash quotes as price-stale (including sAAPL intent #29 above oracle), executed 12/12 cancels, and reposted 12/12 fresh at current oracle mid — the focus question is answered with evidence. Now 11 open (one filled by Bear-Yosher since repost). 3 settled deals this cycle vs 2 last cycle, a

Fresh restart confirmed: 12/12 stale quotes cancelled and reposted at oracle mid at 18:38. 3 deals settled (Bear-Yosher new this cycle), book live with 11 open intents. However realized PnL is -$59.67 lifetime against $17.89 in token costs — the LP is getting picked off, not just providing liquidity.

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

Sound and on-mission: the wake correctly identified stale quotes (including an above-oracle sAAPL bid), cleaned the book, and reposted two-sided. The agent is solving the right problem — staleness detection and repricing — but the underlying pricing model (pure oracle-mid with no spread) is the structural gap letting arb flow drain PnL.

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

armed, 0 deals — likely the adverse-sele

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

armed but two triggers stale, only 4h fa

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Not applicable — LP mission is to be taken, not to take. The 1 intent filled since repost (Bear-Yosher) is normal throughput. Adverse selection by informed takers is the concern, not missed takes.

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Add a PnL floor guard in the wake script (or agent CLAUDE.md): if realized_pnl < -N USDC per wake cycle, skip reposting and emit a diagnostic — stops the LP from being a continuously open arb target while losing money.

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

Summary: No change since last run: still 0 wakes, $0 burn, armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null. The agent has never been initialized. Even if deployed today, the binary-bet supply chain it depends on remains broken — polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, and option-writer-matheus are all still crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false). arb-hunter-tom is now

mimic-ljuba has zero path to productive operation this cycle. Two independent blockers must both be resolved first: (1) the agent must be initialized and a watcher deployed (0 wakes, null wake_script), and (2) at least one binary-bet writer — polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, or option-writer-matheus — must be uncrashed and posting, since arb-hunter-tom's role is to take those bets, not supply them.

0 lifetime wakes, null wake_script_source, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false — agent never bootstrapped. Supply chain: polymarket-ljuba (armed=false/pidAlive=false), vulture-andrew (armed=false/pidAlive=false), option-writer-matheus (armed=false/pidAlive=false) — all three potential binary

N/A — agent has never run; no reasoning to evaluate. The prior summary correctly diagnosed the dual blocker and nothing has changed to alter that conclusion.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher process (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

MISSING: no binary-bet-posted event trigger (all supply-side agents crashed)

Takes binary bets (taker-side), does not post them — produces no flow for mimic-ljuba to mirror

Posts small-shade binary intents; mimic-ljuba's primary mirror source

Posts near-decided binary intents as part of baited-intent strategy; could supply mimic-ljuba

Writes options and potentially binary instruments; secondary supply source

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never run and has no wake script; cannot assess whether any on-chain BinaryBets existed that it could have accepted

No script exists at all (wake_script_source=null) — agent was never initialized

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

No trigger on BinaryBet-posted events from fleet counterparties

Initialize the agent: deploy a watcher that triggers on BinaryBet-posted chain events from polymarket-ljuba and vulture-andrew addresses, with a 60-min fallback for scanning open accepted bets — but this is moot until at least one supply-si

Agent never initialized — no watcher deployed

0 wakes, $0 burn, null wake_script_source, armed=false, pidAlive=false. The agent directory exists but was never bootstrapped with a watcher script.

Run agent init to deploy wake script and start watcher process; script should trigger on BinaryBet-posted events with 60-min fallback.

All binary-bet supply-side agents crashed — mimic-ljuba has no flow to mirror

polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, and option-writer-matheus are all armed=false/pidAlive=false. These three are the only agents in the fleet that post binary bets. arb-hunter-tom (alive) is a taker, not a poster — it competes for the same flow mimic-ljuba needs.

Uncrash polymarket-ljuba first (it has the highest binary posting frequency per mission); this single action creates the supply chain mimic-ljuba needs and also benefits arb-hunter-tom's deal flow.

Momentum-Nikita

First wake — no trailing returns. Establishing baseline prices. Taking ~25% starter position in BTC (strongest crypto by

intent #28 resolves (fill/expiry) or 90min

Summary: Intent #28 still live: countdown now 27 min (sequence 71→57→42→27, each drop ~15 min matching cycle interval exactly — no fireWake event, no new settle). pidAlive=false is normal inter-wake rest; armed=true + nextFallbackMin=27 confirms watcher alive via fallback. Settled_deals=0/open_intents=0 SDK discrepancy persists (known platform issue). Agent is 1 wake

Intent #28 (BTC swap, ~25% starter position) is live and untouched — confirmed by four consecutive 15-min countdown drops (71→57→42→27 min) with zero fireWake events. pidAlive=false is the normal resting state between watcher polls; armed=true + 27 min to fallback means the agent wakes automatically on fill, expiry, or fallback — whichever comes first. lp-maker-matheus (now recovered, 12 open intents) is the most likely fill counterparty.

Only 1 wake, 65 min ago; agent is newly initialized. Intent #28 is the first and only intent posted; it is within its RFQ window. 0 settled deals is expected at this stage — not a malfunction.

Sound and on-mission. First wake correctly established baseline prices, identified BTC as the strongest crypto mover, posted a ~25% starter intent, then handed off to the watcher. This is exactly the right behavior for a momentum agent: decide once, wait for resolution, re-decide on next wake. No churn detected (repeat_wakes=0). Risk: if a different asset takes momentum leadership within the 90-mi

intent #28 resolves (fill or expiry) via ownIntentResolved polling

Primary swap maker, now recovered (armed=true, 12 open intents), 3 settled deals this cycle — most likely to fill a BTC swap intent

Runs delivered swaps but is DCA-patient, may not cross with a momentum-directional BTC intent unless the direction happens to align with its

armed=true, ~153 min to fallback, pidAli

armed=false/pidAlive=false — crashed, no wake capacity this cycle

None within mission scope. The Step-1 urgent item (mimic-ljuba BinaryBet expiring at 19:00 UTC) is off-mission for momentum-nikita — it trades delivered swaps, not binary bets. arb-hunter-tom is the designated taker for that class.

Fires on intent resolution (fill OR expiry) — correct trigger for an agent that posts one directional intent per cycle and needs to re-decide afterward

90-min fallback covers the full RFQ window + buffer, preventing the agent from sleeping through a dead intent

Zero-LLM: ownIntentResolved is a deterministic chain read, correct for a watcher

No book-polling: appropriate — momentum-nikita decides directionally, it does not respond to counterparty flow

No intermediate price-leadership check: if a new asset overtakes BTC as the strongest mover within the 90-min window, the agent cannot rotate mid-wait — it is b

Add an optional price-leadership re-check at the 45-min mark: if a different asset has moved >X% ahead of BTC since wake, fireWake early so the agent can cancel #28 and redirect concentration. This preserves the mission's 'rotate as leaders

Mid-intent rotation blind spot

Mission mandates 'rotate as leadership shifts' but the watcher only resolves on fill/expiry. An asset that overtakes BTC between T+0 and T+90 will not trigger rotation — the agent stays locked into a stale BTC call.

Add a price-leadership poll at ~T+45 min inside the watch loop; if leadership has shifted by a meaningful threshold (e.g. >2% spread vs BTC return), fireWake early and let the agent cancel #28 and re-decide.

open_intents=0 SDK discrepancy

Watcher/on-chain evidence confirms #28 is live (countdown active, not settled), but open_intents reports 0. This is a recurring platform-level miscount seen across agents.

Core SDK: reconcile open_intents metric against watcher countdown state; the discrepancy erodes trust in the 'open_intents' field fleet-wide.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: Sixth consecutive cycle with zero change: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, $0.15 lifetime spend frozen. The initialization LLM call ($0.15) ran once and never produced a watcher script — confirmed by wake_script_source=null. No self-recovery path exists: no watcher → no wake → no new watcher. This is a permanent dep

Six cycles of identical zero-change state — $0.15 frozen, 0 wakes, null wake script. The agent has no self-recovery mechanism: no watcher process, no fallback timer, no script on disk. Manual re-registration is the only path forward. Primary counterparty option-writer-matheus is also flatlined, making the options market structurally inoperative even post-revival.

wake_script_source=null across 6 consecutive cycles; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; $0.15 spend represents exactly one initialization LLM call that halted before installing a watcher; 0 wakes recorded lifetime

Cannot assess — no wakes, no reasoning output, no wake script. The agent never entered its operational loop. The $0.15 initialization call is the totality of its execution history.

MISSING: no watcher script installed (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

No trigger of any kind exists — closed loop with no escape

Primary counterparty — writes ETH/BTC options this agent is designed to take

FLATLINED: armed=false, pidAlive=false —

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent never entered operational loop; no wake history exists to evaluate

wake_script_source is null — no script was ever installed on disk

Initialization halted at $0.15 before producing a watcher

No fallback timer set, no process alive, no recovery path

Manual re-registration: re-run the agent initialization flow from scratch to install a watcher; script should poll for open option intents from option-writer-matheus (or any counterparty) on a ~15–30 min cadence with a 2h fallback

Initialization never completed — watcher never installed

Six cycles, $0.15 frozen, wake_script_source=null. The agent ran one LLM initialization call and halted before writing a watcher to disk. No self-recovery is possible without external intervention.

Manually re-trigger agent initialization (re-deploy / re-register watcher). Investigate why the first initialization call failed to produce a wake script — likely an unhandled error or missing dependency during the CLAUDE.md boot sequence.

No initialization watchdog — partial-init agents silently flatline forever

An agent that spends $0.15 on initialization but fails to install a watcher has no SDK-level recovery: no retry, no alert, no fallback timer injected by the platform. Six cycles passed without any automated detection.

Add an SDK-level initialization watchdog: if armed=false and wake_script_source=null after the first LLM call, auto-retry initialization once, then emit a critical alert rather than silently freezing the agent indefinitely.

Options market double-flatline: both option-taker-matheus and option-writer-matheus are down

The options sub-market has zero participants on both sides. Even a successful revival of option-taker-matheus would find no open option intents to take, as option-writer-matheus (the sole writer) is also armed=false/pidAlive=false.

Revive both agents in sequence: option-writer-matheus first (so inventory exists), then option-taker-matheus. Staggered restart ensures the taker doesn't wake into an empty book.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Summary: Seventh consecutive flatline — state unchanged byte-for-byte: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, $0.15 lifetime spend (one partial init that never completed). Zero option intents ever posted; open_intents=null; nextFallbackMin=null. No delta from last run. The 30% option-writing sleeve has never written a single option, starving o

option-writer-matheus has never reached operational state across 7 cycles. $0.15 was spent on a partial init that stalled; the agent has no wake script, no fallback, and no armed watcher. Without manual re-initialization, this agent will never post an option intent — and option-taker-matheus has zero supply to take as a direct consequence.

wakes=0, wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null across 7 consecutive cycles; $0.15 lifetime spend = one stalled init wake only; 0 option intents ever posted; 0 settled deals

N/A — agent has never executed a reasoning loop. Initialization never completed; no wake script was ever installed. There is nothing to evaluate for reasoning quality.

MISSING: no wake script installed (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no armed watcher (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

intended consumer of ETH/BTC options this agent would write — currently starved of all supply

values and takes mispriced options; would be a natural taker of well-priced ETH/BTC options if any were posted

unmeasurable: agent has never posted an intent and has no watcher observing the book — no options exist for it to write, and no counterparty flow is visible to it

No wake script exists (wake_script_source=null) — agent cannot self-start under any condition

No fallback timer registered — unlike rebalancer-lior's 4h fallback, there is zero keepalive

Initialization stalled at $0.15 and was never retried or resumed

Manual re-initialization is the only path: restart the agent process so it can complete init, install a wake script with a time-based fallback (e.g. every 4h), and verify it reaches armed=true before next cycle.

Initialization never completed — permanent flatline

Agent spent $0.15 on one partial init wake and stalled. Seven cycles later: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, nextFallbackMin=null. No self-recovery is possible.

Manual restart of the agent process. Confirm it reaches armed=true and wake_script_source is non-null before considering it recovered. Add a time-based fallback (≥4h) to the wake script so a future stall doesn't produce another permanent flatline.

option-taker-matheus supply chain broken

option-taker-matheus's entire mission depends on options written by this agent. With option-writer-matheus at 0 intents posted for 7 cycles, option-taker has no supply to evaluate or take — both agents are effectively inert together.

Prioritize option-writer-matheus recovery over option-taker-matheus; the taker is useless until the writer is live. Sequence: writer first, then verify taker can see its intents.

No watchdog for stalled init — platform-level gap

The SDK has no mechanism to detect or retry a stalled initialization. An agent that spends tokens on init but never completes can flatline indefinitely with no alert. This is the third agent (alongside option-taker-matheus, stacker-massimo) exhibiting this pattern.

Add an init-completion watchdog to the SDK: if a process spends >$0.10 on init wakes but armed remains false after N minutes, emit a health alert and optionally auto-retry.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: Wake 1 (18:03) posted intent #32 (BTC<$64k/Jun9, 0.617 implied, 10 USDC). Since last summary: one critical change — pidAlive dropped from true to false. The watch loop is dead; only the system-level fallback at Jun9 20:00 UTC (1508 min) survives. Two new BinaryBets now on book (bear-yosher ~59 min left, 0x9199 1269 min left) are undetectable. Pre-expiry sett

pidAlive=false kills all three event-driven triggers (ownIntentResolved, 5-min pre-expiry check, new-intent poll). The only surviving wake is the Jun9 20:00 UTC fallback — 4h after intent #32 expires at 16:00 UTC. Bear-yosher's BinaryBet (4+1.71 USDC, ~59 min left) and 0x9199's BinaryBet (10 USDC→6.207 USDC, 1269 min left) are both on book and fit the mission, but the dead loop can't see them.

pidAlive: true→false since last summary; wake loop exits, armWatcher fallback persists at EXPIRY_SEC+14400 (Jun9 20:00 UTC); 0 settled deals, 0 open intents; intent #32 (0xe0bee8) still unresolved but unmonitored

Sound mission logic — the wake script correctly targets non-swap intents and includes a pre-expiry check. But the fallback is anchored 4h *after* expiry, making it a post-mortem trigger rather than a safety net. Sound reasoning, wrong fallback anchor: if the pid dies (as it has), the only surviving wake fires after the bet is already expired and unsettleable.

armWatcher fallback: Jun9 20:00 UTC (+1508 min) — only surviving trigger

MISSING: ownIntentResolved check — pid dead, can't poll

MISSING: 5-min pre-expiry fireWake at Jun9 15:55 UTC — pid dead, won't fire

MISSING: new non-swap intent detection (poll every 60s) — pid dead, bear-yosher and 0x9199 BinaryBets invisible

Primary mission is near-decided binaries — intent #32 (BTC<$64k, oracle $63,457 vs $64k strike, 0.617 implied) is its target class; could ta

Mirrors BinaryBets and accepts winnable open bets; intent #32 is in its scan class, but its focus is on the other side (posting, not taking)

Swap-focused LP; does not engage with BinaryBet templates

Bear-yosher's BinaryBet (4+1.71 USDC, ~59 min left) and 0x9199's BinaryBet (10 USDC→6.207 USDC, 1269 min left) are both live non-swap intents on the book — exactly polymarket-ljuba's target class. The polling loop that would have detected them (trigger #3, 60s poll) is dead. These are actively missed opportunities attributable to the pid death, not market structure.

Pre-expiry 5-min check (trigger #2) is well-designed for the settle-or-let-expire decision

New non-swap intent poll (trigger #3) is correctly scoped to the mission's take-side logic

ownIntentResolved (trigger #1) cleanly closes the feedback loop on posted intent #32

Zero-LLM, 60s cadence appropriate for a book-watching agent

Fallback anchored at EXPIRY_SEC+4h — a post-mortem timestamp, not a safety net; if pid dies (as now), the agent wakes 4h too late to act on settlement

No secondary fallback before expiry; a single armWatcher call means pid death = mission failure for the current intent

Move FALLBACK_UNIX_SEC to EXPIRY_SEC - 600 (10 min before expiry) as the primary fallback safety net, and add a second armWatcher or a post-expiry reassessment wake separately. This ensures a pid-death scenario still wakes the agent in time

Watch loop process died — pid=false, all event triggers dead

pidAlive transitioned true→false since last summary. runWatchLoop is down; only the system fallback at Jun9 20:00 UTC survives. The pre-expiry check at 15:55 UTC, ownIntentResolved, and new-intent poll are all unreachable until restart.

Restart the polymarket-ljuba agent process to restore the 60s poll loop before Jun9 15:55 UTC (the pre-expiry window for intent #32)

Fallback anchored post-expiry — wakes 4h too late if pid dies

FALLBACK_UNIX_SEC = EXPIRY_SEC + 14400 means the agent's only guaranteed wake is after the bet can no longer be acted on. This turned from a design smell into an active failure the moment pid died.

Change fallback to EXPIRY_SEC - 600 (10 min before expiry) so the safety-net wake fires inside the actionable window regardless of pid state

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC is most underweight at -35pp. DCA slice = $7. Needed to register agent first (PosterNotRegistered prereq).

intent #13 fills/expires or US market opens (4h fallback)

Summary: At 17:20 UTC (w1, 92 min ago), the agent woke — triggered by the 4h fallback from a prior cycle — successfully registered, approved USDC, and posted a new BTC DCA intent (BTC most underweight at -35pp, $7 slice, intentPosted=true). This answers Step 1's question: YES, a new intent was posted since #13 expired. However, the wake script (current.ts) was NOT re

Rebalancer-lior correctly woke, registered, and posted a $7 USDC→BTC DCA slice at 17:20 UTC, but the wake script still watches intent #13 (dead) and a 17:30 UTC timer (fired) — the new intent's fill/expiry will NOT trigger an immediate re-wake. With open_intents=0 and 0 settled deals, the new intent may have already expired unfilled, meaning the next DCA attempt waits until ~21:20 UTC fallback.

0 settled deals lifetime; intentPosted=true at 17:20 UTC but open_intents=0 and no fill recorded; lp-maker-matheus (12 open intents, 2 settled deals) is the only plausible USDC→BTC counterparty but has not taken this intent

Sound reasoning, wrong problem scope: the agent correctly identifies BTC as most underweight (-35pp) and sizes a $7 DCA slice — mission-aligned and quantitative. But the wake script it regenerated (or failed to regenerate) still encodes a specific past intent ID and a past timestamp, meaning the watcher's poll trigger is permanently dead on the new intent. The DCA logic is correct; the wake-lifecy

ownIntentResolved watching intent #13 (already resolved — dead trigger)

setTimeout for 2026-06-08T17:30:00Z (fired ~82 min before current data — dead trigger)

4h fallback armWatcher — ONLY live trigger, nextFallbackMin=151 (~21:20 UTC)

Mission is to fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; 12 open intents live, 2 settled swaps this cycle — the natural taker for

armed=true, recovered this cycle, 12 ope

Targets binary bets and mispriced oracles, not patient DCA swaps

Takes clearly-mispriced swaps — would only fill if rebalancer-lior's rate is off-market enough to be 'mispriced' from vulture's perspective

none identified — rebalancer-lior is a maker/poster by mission (DCA via posted swaps), not a taker. No open intents visible on the book that match its buy-side mission.

4h fallback (armWatcher FOUR_HOURS_MS) ensures the agent keeps waking for DCA even with no fills

runWatchLoop polls ownIntentResolved — correct pattern for a patient poster

MY_INTENT_ID is hardcoded to '13' — a resolved intent; the new intent posted at w1 will never fire this trigger

marketOpenEpochMs is hardcoded to 2026-06-08T17:30:00Z — a past timestamp; setTimeout fires immediately (negative ms guard is present but msToMarketOpen < 0 so

After each wake the agent posts a new intent but does NOT regenerate a new wake script watching the new intent ID — the lifecycle is broken: every post orphans

After posting a new intent, the agent must write a new current.ts that hardcodes the returned intent ID (not #13). The highest-value fix is: emit the new intent ID from the wake's output and have the post-wake script-write step substitute i

Wake script not regenerated after new intent post

current.ts still watches MY_INTENT_ID='13' (resolved) and a 17:30 UTC setTimeout (fired). The new intent posted at 17:20 UTC is invisible to the watcher — its fill or expiry produces no immediate re-wake. Every DCA cycle will have this bug until the script-write step is fixed.

In the agent's CLAUDE.md or wake-script template: after posting an intent, capture the returned intent ID and write a new current.ts with that ID substituted into MY_INTENT_ID. Also replace the hardcoded market-open timestamp with Date.now() + offset or remove it if the DCA logic doesn't need it.

open_intents=0 despite intentPosted=true — unconfirmed intent state

Wake w1 at 17:20 UTC shows intentPosted=true with a txHash, but open_intents=0 in current metrics. The intent either expired almost immediately (no counterparty in ~92 min) or the on-chain tx reverted silently. Either way, 0 settled deals confirms no fill.

On next wake (~21:20 UTC), agent should read its posted intent ID from the tx receipt and check its state explicitly — if expired with no fill, re-assess portfolio and re-post with a fresh limit or wider tolerance.

Stacker-Massimo

Summary: Sixth consecutive flatline — no change whatsoever from last run. wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0 burn, no deals. Both structural blockers remain fully intact: (1) no wake script loaded → watcher cannot arm; (2) 0.50 USDC lot is ~24× below lp-maker-matheus's minimum (~12 USDC) — so even if a script were loaded today, posted i

Permanently blocked on two compounding issues: no wake script (agent never fires) and a 0.50 USDC lot size that no current fleet LP will fill — lp-maker-matheus's minimum is ~12 USDC, 24× higher. Even with lp-maker-matheus now live and healthy, zero deals would clear at this lot size. This is not a patience/thin-book situation — it is a hard configuration mismatch requiring an agent-side fix.

wake_script_source=null (6 consecutive cycles), watcher.armed=false/pidAlive=false, 0 wakes lifetime; 0.50 USDC lot vs lp-maker-matheus ~12 USDC minimum — no settled deals, no open intents, no counterparty capable of filling at this size in current fleet

N/A — agent has never woken; no reasoning to evaluate. The configuration itself is the problem, not the logic.

MISSING: no wake script loaded — no trigger of any kind exists; watcher cannot arm

Only active swap LP in fleet; recovered this cycle (armed=true, 12 open intents), but minimum lot ~12 USDC — stacker-massimo's 0.50 USDC is

DCA buyer, not an LP; posts swap intents itself rather than filling others' small lots

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (never wakes); structurally moot — no fleet LP accepts 0.50 USDC swaps

No wake script exists at all — null source means the watcher has never been configured

Without a script, the agent cannot arm, fire, or post any intents regardless of market conditions

Load a minimal wake script with a time-based fallback (e.g. every 4h) that posts one sNVDA swap intent — but only after raising the lot size to ≥12 USDC, otherwise the script fires and every intent goes unfilled

No wake script deployed

wake_script_source=null for 6 consecutive cycles. The watcher process has never been configured. This is the primary blocker — the agent is inert by design until resolved.

Write and deploy a current.ts wake script with a cadence appropriate to a patient DCA strategy (e.g. 4–8h fallback timer); deploy via the agent's standard skill path

Lot size 24× below minimum counterparty threshold

Mission specifies 0.50 USDC per swap; lp-maker-matheus (only active fleet LP) requires ~12 USDC minimum. Even after a wake script is loaded, every posted intent will be un-fillable in the current fleet. There is no other LP at smaller lot sizes.

Raise per-wake lot size to ≥12 USDC in CLAUDE.md/agent config, or accept that settlement depends on a future LP joining the fleet that serves micro-lots — the latter has no timeline

Swing-Nikita

First wake setup — need approval to trade when signals fire

Summary: Warmup cycle is broken: the predicted 8-min fallback fire (prior run, nextFallbackMin=8) did NOT produce an indexed wake or any LLM spend (tokens_5h=$0.00, wakes still=1). Process is now dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). The fallback either fired and the process crashed before completing an LLM call, or the process was killed before t

swing-nikita has been dead for 329 min with $0.56 lifetime LLM spend (all in the initial approval wake). The 8-min fallback predicted by the prior cycle did not produce a recoverable wake — process is flatlined with no fallback scheduled. It has never posted a swap intent; its dislocation-fade mission has not executed a single trade.

wakes=1 (approval only), tokens_5h=$0.00, last_wake_min_ago=329, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, settled_deals=[], open_intents=null. Prior cycle nextFallbackMin=8 → expected fire at ~321 min ago — no indexed wake appeared, no token spend, no re-arm. Process did not survive the fa

The wake script reasoning is internally sound (60-min sample collection for warmup is the right cadence), but it is a single-fire dead-end: armWatcher sets one deadline, runWatchLoop awaits it, and when the process crashes there is no recovery path. The LLM is solving the right warmup problem but the platform substrate (one-shot arm, no re-arm on crash) means one process death ends the warmup perm

60-min time-based fallback (armWatcher fallbackMs=3600000)

MISSING: re-arm logic after fallback fires — once the deadline is consumed or the process dies, there is no subsequent wake scheduled

MISSING: crash-recovery / heartbeat — if the process dies mid-warmup, nothing restarts it

Primary swap liquidity, 12 open intents, recovered this cycle — would be swing-nikita's natural taker when it eventually posts a dislocation

Also posts delivered swaps; could cross if dislocations overlap with rebalancer target mix

Delivers swaps on momentum signals — could be counterparty or competitor depending on direction

Unmeasurable — watcher has been dead for 329 min and agent has never posted an intent, so there is no baseline to measure against. Any dislocation signal that fired in the last 329 min was invisible to this agent.

60-min cadence is correct for warmup sample collection — patient, not a sub-minute poll

No book polling (right: swing-nikita needs price history, not live order flow)

Single-fire design: armWatcher sets ONE deadline; when consumed or process dies, nextFallbackMin goes null and nothing re-arms

No recovery path: if the process crashes before or during the fire, the warmup cycle ends permanently — requires manual restart

No indication of how many warmup samples have been collected or when the agent graduates from warmup to active trading

Add a loop so the watcher re-arms itself after each 60-min fire (e.g. wrap in a while loop that calls armWatcher again each iteration) and emit a log of sample count so the LLM can graduate to active mode once N samples are collected — a si

Warmup watcher is a single-fire dead-end — crash kills the cycle

current.ts arms one 60-min deadline and never re-arms. Process died (armed=false, pidAlive=false) at ~321 min ago. The predicted fallback fire produced no indexed wake, no token spend, no re-arm. Agent is permanently halted until manual restart.

Rewrite wake script to loop: after each 60-min fire, immediately re-arm the next 60-min deadline. Track sample count in watcher state; once N samples accumulated, graduate to active mode and begin dislocation polling.

Agent has never posted a swap intent — mission has not executed once

lifetime wakes=1 (approval setup only), $0.56 total LLM spend, 0 open intents, 0 settled deals. Warmup never completed. swing-nikita has functionally never operated.

After fixing wake script loop, verify warmup completes (sample count reaches threshold) and that the first active-mode wake posts a dislocation intent against lp-maker-matheus's live quotes.

No crash-recovery for dead watchers — flatlined agents require manual intervention

swing-nikita, bear-yosher, and 4 others are armed=false/pidAlive=false with no auto-restart. The platform has no watchdog that detects dead watchers and restarts them. This affects 6/12 agents this cycle.

Add a fleet-level watchdog (cron or supervisor) that detects armed=false/pidAlive=false with nextFallbackMin=null and triggers a restart wake for agents whose last wake was >N minutes ago.

Vulture-Andrew

Summary: Fifth consecutive flatline: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null — never deployed, zero change across five cycles. Opportunity cost is now severe and quantifiable: mimic-ljuba's 8+6.55 USDC binary is expiring uncontested within ~8 min of this cycle, bear-yosher's 4+1.71 binary sits live, and lp-maker-matheus's 12 open swap intents represent e

Five cycles, 0 wakes, $0 burn, null wake script — vulture-andrew does not exist on-chain. The fleet currently has 3 open target-class opportunities (2 binaries + 12 swap intents) that match its mission exactly; all are uncontested. Every cycle without deployment is a direct, quantifiable miss.

wake_script_source=null across all five observed cycles; armed=false, pidAlive=false, no wakes ever recorded; agent was never initialized — not a crash, not a stale watcher, simply never brought up

Unmeasurable — no reasoning has ever executed. The agent has never woken. The mission is well-defined and high-value (near-decided binaries, mispriced swaps), but it remains purely theoretical.

MISSING: no watcher script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no book-monitoring trigger for near-decided binaries

MISSING: no trigger for mispriced swap detection vs oracle

Active binary bets (8+6.55 USDC expiring ~8 min from cycle; 4+1.71 also live) — vulture's primary target class, uncontested

12 open swap intents live on book, USDC↔BTC near oracle mid — vulture can take mispriced legs

4+1.71 USDC binary sitting live and uncontested — near-decided binary is vulture's highest-confidence edge

armed=false, pidAlive=false — watcher st

Posts binaries calibrated to Polymarket; vulture could find edge if ljuba's pricing lags oracle moves

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — but Step-1 confirms at minimum: (1) mimic-ljuba's 8+6.55 binary expiring uncontested ~8 min from cycle start, (2) bear-yosher's 4+1.71 binary uncontested, (3) lp-maker-matheus's 12 live swap intents. All three are textbook vulture targets. Opportunity cost is now multi-cycle and compounding.

No wake script exists at all — wake_script_source=null

No fallback timer to bootstrap initial activation

No book-poll trigger for near-decided binaries (the agent's primary edge)

No oracle-comparison trigger for mispriced swaps

Write and deploy an initial current.ts: poll the live intent book every 5–10 min for (a) binary bets with <15 min to expiry where outcome is resolvable from current oracle, and (b) swap intents priced >0.5% off oracle mid. Fire on either co

Agent never deployed — no wake script, no watcher, no activation

wake_script_source=null for five consecutive cycles. This is not a crash or a stale watcher — the agent simply does not have a current.ts. It has never woken once. The fleet is leaving binary arb and swap mispricing entirely uncontested as a result.

Bootstrap current.ts with a book-polling watcher: trigger on (a) binary expiry <15 min with oracle-resolvable outcome, (b) swap intent >0.5% off oracle. Add 30-min fallback. Deploy immediately — every additional cycle is direct opportunity cost against the most target-rich book state seen this run.

Settled deals not indexed — PnL untrackable even after deployment

settled_deals='not-indexed'; realized_pnl_usd=null. Once deployed, the board cannot assess whether vulture's takes are profitable without fixing indexing.

Ensure agent address is registered in the deals index before first trade so performance is measurable from wake-1.

wallet-address frequency (6/12 agents addressed)

SWAPS CLEAR, BINARIES FROZEN

lp-maker-matheus ⇄ {bear-yosher, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77 / arb-hunter-tom}

ACTIVE — 3 settled this cycle; 11 open quotes live (36–39min TTL); LP bleeding P

mimic-ljuba / bear-yosher / 0x9199 → arb-hunter-tom / vulture-andrew (uncontested)

FROZEN — 3 bets on book, 0 ever settled; mimic-ljuba's 8+6.55 USDC bet expired u

BLOCKED — intent posted 17:20 UTC (BTC -35pp underweight, $7 slice); lp-maker-ma

DEAD — both flatlined (armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null); 0

arb-hunter-tom watcher baselines its seen-set at arm time, not at each wake

All binary bets already on-book when the watcher arms are permanently invisible — arb-hunter-tom never fires on them reg

W3 (18:27 UTC): arb-hunter-tom reported 'no binary bets' while mimic-ljuba's 8+6.55 USDC bet had ~33min remaining; bet expired uncontested at 19:00 UTC; W4 (19:25 UTC, post-expiry) took a swap instead

vulture-andrew never deployed (5 consecutive flatlines, wake_script_source=null, armed=false)

Binary market has no dedicated taker; arb-hunter-tom is the only live taker but is structurally blind to pre-armed bets;

vulture-andrew: 0 wakes lifetime, 0 settled deals, never initialized; 2 binary bets (4+1.71 USDC and 10 USDC) live on book with no taker

lp-maker-matheus prices at oracle mid with no bid/ask spread

Adverse selection: informed takers cross when edge exists, leaving LP short the better leg on every fill; -$59.67 cumula

3 settled swaps (Bear-Yosher, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) all taker-advantaged; arb-hunter-tom deal #1 was +57bps for the taker on lp-maker-matheus's SSV quote

polymarket-ljuba's watch loop died after first wake (pidAlive dropped true→false); next system fallback is Jun9 20:00 UT

bear-yosher's binary (resolves Jun9 18:50 UTC) and 0x9199's binary (1261min TTL) are undetectable; polymarket-ljuba will

polymarket-ljuba: pidAlive=false, watcher.armed=true, nextFallbackMin=1502; bear-yosher resolution Jun9 18:50 UTC precedes polymarket-ljuba's Jun9 20:00 UTC fallback by 70min

option-writer-matheus flatlined for 7 consecutive cycles (wake_script_source=null, armed=false) — never posted a single

option-taker-matheus has nothing to take; the two agents are mutually dependent and both permanently stalled; $0.30 comb

option-writer-matheus: 7 flatlines, $0.15 frozen; option-taker-matheus: 6 flatlines, $0.15 frozen; 0 option intents ever posted by either agent

stacker-massimo's lot size (0.50 USDC) is ~24× below lp-maker-matheus's minimum (~12 USDC per quote)

Even if stacker-massimo were deployed today, its intents would find no counterparty in the current fleet — the structura

stacker-massimo: 0.50 USDC lot; lp-maker-matheus open quotes all start at 8.49–13.46 USDC; no other swap maker active in fleet

Binary market entirely frozen — taker blind spot + missing dedicated taker

4 binary bets posted across all cycles, 0 settled. arb-hunter-tom's seen-set baseline at arm-time made mimic-ljuba's 8+6.55 USDC bet invisible; it expired uncontested. bear-yosher's 4+1.71 USDC and 0x9199's 10 USDC remain live with no active taker. vulture-andrew (dedicated binary taker) has never been deployed in 5 cycles.

0/4 binary bets settled lifetime; mimic-ljuba 8+6.55 USDC expired uncontested 19:00 UTC; arb-hunter-tom W3 'no binary bets' at 18:27 UTC with bet live; vulture-andrew: armed=false, 0 wakes

Fix arb-hunter-tom watcher: replace seen-set-at-arm baseline with a near-expiry scan (wake if any binary bet has <60min RFQ TTL not in confirmed-closed state). Separately deploy vulture-andrew — bear-yosher's bet has ~51min RFQ window.

5 agents in permanent flatline — no self-recovery path

option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, vulture-andrew: all armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, nextFallbackMin=null. No fallback will fire; no watcher can self-install. Collectively these agents represent the options market, binary taker, micro-DCA, and momentum arms of the fleet — all absent.

6–7 consecutive flatline cycles each; $0.00–$0.15 frozen spend (one stalled init each); 0 settled deals collectively; swing-nikita: prior nextFallbackMin=8 fired ~321min ago with no indexed wake and no token spend

Manual re-deploy required for all 5. Priority order: (1) vulture-andrew — immediate binary opportunity; (2) option-writer-matheus — unblocks option-taker-matheus; (3) swing-nikita; (4) option-taker-matheus; (5) stacker-massimo (also requires lot-size fix to ≥12 USDC before re-dep

lp-maker-matheus bleeding PnL at -$59.67 — adverse selection from zero-spread oracle pricing

3 fills this cycle but -$59.67 cumulative PnL. Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite informed takers to pick off favorable legs. At $16.83 token burn in 5h (12.2% of pool), pool depletes in ~35h at current rate.

3 settled swaps (Bear-Yosher, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77); arb-hunter-tom deal #1 captured +57bps on lp-maker-matheus's SSV quote; token burn rate 12.2%/5h

Add 50–100bps bid/ask spread to lp-maker-matheus quotes over oracle mid. This is the single highest-leverage change — it directly converts each fill from a PnL drain to a positive.

polymarket-ljuba watch loop dead — 25h blind window before next fallback

pidAlive dropped true→false since last summary; watch loop exited after one wake (intent #32, BTC<$64k/Jun9, 10 USDC). System fallback fires Jun9 20:00 UTC (1502min). bear-yosher's binary resolves Jun9 18:50 UTC — 70min before that fallback — so it will be missed entirely.

polymarket-ljuba: pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=1502; intent #32 (0xe0bee8) unresolved and unmonitored; bear-yosher bet resolves Jun9 18:50 UTC vs fallback Jun9 20:00 UTC

Restart polymarket-ljuba's watch loop. Reduce fallback from EXPIRY+4h to ≤120min so loop death never creates a >2h blind window.

rebalancer-lior BTC DCA intent unmatched despite matching counterparty on book

Intent posted 17:20 UTC (BTC underweight -35pp, $7 slice); lp-maker-matheus has 0.0002 BTC ↔ 12.69/12.74 USDC pairs open (37min TTL). 0 lifetime settled deals for rebalancer-lior despite lp-maker-matheus being the only USDC/BTC maker active. Likely price mismatch.

rebalancer-lior: intentPosted=true at 17:20 UTC, settled_deals=0 lifetime; lp-maker-matheus: 0.0002 BTC ↔ 12.69 USDC open; rebalancer-lior wake script stale (not updated post-w1 despite dead triggers)

Compare rebalancer-lior's posted DCA price against lp-maker-matheus's open BTC quote. If mismatch, adjust price tolerance or re-post at current market rate. Also update rebalancer-lior's wake script — current.ts still references expired triggers (intent #13, 17:30 UTC timer).

Swap market functional — lp-maker-matheus hub clearing with 3 settlements

3 swaps settled this cycle via lp-maker-matheus. arb-hunter-tom settled its first deal (4.24 USDC → 2 SSV, +57bps). 11 swap quotes live. Swap funnel is the only clearing segment of the fleet.

3/48 total posted settled = 6.25%; all 3 are swaps via lp-maker-matheus; 11 open swap quotes with 36–39min TTL; arb-hunter-tom deal #1 confirmed settled

None for clearing mechanics — monitor PnL trajectory and apply spread fix before pool depletes.

Fix arb-hunter-tom watcher seen-set baseline: wake on near-expiry binary bets (TTL <60min, not in confirmed-closed state) regardless of when the watcher armed. This is the single change that unlocks bear-yosher's live bet and prevents future expiry misses.

Re-deploy vulture-andrew immediately — bear-yosher's 4+1.71 USDC binary has ~51min RFQ window; 0x9199's 10 USDC binary has 1261min. Every cycle without a dedicated binary taker forfeits these positions.

Restart polymarket-ljuba's watch loop and shorten its fallback interval to ≤120min to prevent the current 25h blind window from recurring on future loop exits.

Re-deploy option-writer-matheus first, then option-taker-matheus — they are mutually dependent and together form the only options market pair. Neither can function without the other; option-writer must come first.

Add 50–100bps spread to lp-maker-matheus quotes over oracle mid. At -$59.67 PnL and 12.2%/5h token burn, the pool exhausts in ~35h without this fix — and lp-maker-matheus is the sole liquidity hub for the entire swap market.

Better than last run: lp-maker-matheus recovered from crash (now armed=true, 12 open intents, 2 settled deals this cycle); mimic-ljuba also transitioned from flatline (armed=false) to armed=true/pidAlive=true — two agents that were down are now live, but 5 remain flatlined and no binary bets have fo

URGENT: mimic-ljuba's BinaryBet (8+6.55 USDC) expires at 19:00 UTC — ~8 min from now — arb-hunter-tom's primary target class, still uncontested on book

Funnel conversion: 47 posted / 2 settled = 4.3%, both settled deals are swaps; 0/3 binary bets have settled

lp-maker-matheus recovery needs verification: 12 open intents live, was crashed last cycle — are quotes fresh or stale survivors?

rebalancer-lior wake script has two dead triggers (intent #13 resolved + 17:30 UTC timer fired); only 4h fallback at ~153 min keeps it alive

swing-nikita: prior fallback (nextFallbackMin=8) should have fired by now but agent is armed=false/pidAlive=false — likely crashed on that fire

5 agents in permanent flatline: bear-yosher, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew (armed=false/pidAlive=false across consecutive cycles)

Mimic-ljuba's BinaryBet (8+6.55 USDC, 19:00 UTC expiry, ~8 min left) is live on book right now — did W5 detect and act on it? Prior W3 missed a binary ('no binary bets' reported); has the detection gap been fixed, or is arb-hunter-tom missi

Sixth consecutive cycle: armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0.78 lifetime spend frozen — is there any observable difference from last run, or is this a permanent initialization failure requiring manual re-deploy? Bear-yosher has a BinaryBet post

Recovered from last cycle's crash (now armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=45) — are the 12 open intents fresh reposts from this wake cycle or stale pre-crash survivors? Did the BTC/ETH/sNVDA quotes get reposted at current oracle mid

Prior summary had armed=false/flatline; now armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=15 — what triggered the recovery? The agent has 1 open BinaryBet (8+6.55 USDC, expiring in ~8 min at 19:00 UTC) — is this a bet mimic-ljuba posted itself,

Intent #28 was still live last cycle (confirmed by countdown 71→57→42 min); now pidAlive=false with armed=true/nextFallbackMin=29 — has #28 settled or expired? Is the pidAlive=false a normal inter-wake rest (watcher alive via fallback only)

Sixth consecutive flatline: armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0.15 frozen — no change whatsoever. Is there any initialization path remaining, or is this a permanent deploy failure requiring manual intervention to re-register a watcher?

Sixth consecutive flatline: armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0.15 frozen — zero option intents ever posted, meaning option-taker-matheus has no supply to take. Same question as option-taker: any path forward, or permanent failure?

Intent #32 (BTC<$64k/Jun9, 10 USDC) is presumably still live — any takers since last cycle? More importantly: 0x9199's BinaryBet (10 USDC → 6.207 USDC, 1269 min left) and bear-yosher's BinaryBet (4+1.71 USDC, ~59 min left) are both on book

Wake script has two dead triggers: ownIntentResolved#13 already resolved + 17:30 UTC market-open setTimeout fired ~73+ min ago. Only the 4h fallback (nextFallbackMin=153) keeps it alive. Has a new intent been posted since #13 expired? Does

Sixth consecutive flatline, structural blocker confirmed: 0.50 USDC lot is ~24× below lp-maker-matheus minimum (~12 USDC). Is there any resolution path — either adjusting the lot size upward or waiting for a different liquidity provider — o

Prior cycle showed nextFallbackMin=8 ticking and predicted imminent fire; now armed=false/pidAlive=false with last_wake_min_ago=327. Did the fallback fire produce a wake (with LLM spend, new intent) that then crashed, or did the process die

Fifth consecutive flatline with confirmed acute opportunity cost: lp-maker-matheus's active quotes, mimic-ljuba's 8+6.55 binary (expiring in ~8 min), and bear-yosher's 4+1.71 binary are all prime vulture targets sitting uncontested. What is

arb-hunter-tom: URGENT — mimic-ljuba's BinaryBet (8+6.55 USDC) expires at 19:00 UTC (~8 min); if the binary detection gap from W3 is unfixed, manually trigger a wake now before it expires uncontested

rebalancer-lior: wake script has two dead triggers; only the 4h fallback at ~153 min remains — regenerate the wake script on the next fallback fire or manually trigger now to post a fresh intent while

swing-nikita: armed=false/pidAlive=false — the predicted fallback fire appears to have crashed the process; inspect the last wake log and re-initialize if the crash is recoverable

5 permanent flatlines (bear-yosher, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew): binary market is frozen partly because no takers exist for open bets; manual re-deplo

Binary funnel conversion is 0%: 3 binary bets open (8+6.55, 10, 4+1.71 USDC), 0 settled — the only active binary-capable takers (arb-hunter-tom, polymarket-ljuba) are not filling them; investigate whe