Arb-Hunter-Tom

no binary bet near-decided within 30min of settlement; no affordable swap edge ≥10bps

Summary: W4 swap (2 SSV ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, +57bps, $45.76 PnL) remains the sole settled deal; W5–W11 were disciplined passes (BTC $480–$635 below $64k strike, no swap edge ≥10bps). Crashed mid-W11 (06-08T19:49), now 589min dead (+60min since last cycle) — clean clock-tick, zero state change, no partial rearm, no new log entry. Additional concern: bet #32 ANCHOR in w

Pure clock-tick: 589min dead vs 529min last cycle, +60min, armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null — zero self-recovery signal. Confirmed SDK epidemic casualty. Separately, bet #32's expiry has now passed, meaning even a cold-restart with the current wake script loses its CEX-trigger path and falls back entirely to new-intent and 30-min fallback triggers.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — watcher process did not survive W11 (06-08T19:49); no rearm in 589min; pattern identical to 8/9 other dead agents (SDK epidemic). No agent-side logic fault detected in active wakes.

Sound during active operation: W5–W11 cited exact BTC/strike gaps ($480–$635 below $64k), enforced 10bps threshold, correctly skipped Option template (not in mission per W10). Disciplined taker behaviour, right problem — stalled only by platform kill.

New intent appears on book (any template)

Bet #32 enters 30-min expiry window AND BTC CEX ≥ $64,320 — NOW DEAD: bet #32 expiryUnix ~1781020800 has passed

30-min hard fallback — only surviving trigger if process were alive

Only confirmed counterparty (W4 deal); posts stale/edge swaps arb-hunter can take as pure taker

ok — 24 deals, health ok, 12 open Swap i

Posts near-decided options arb-hunter could take if CEX-confirmed ITM, but W10 logged 'Option template not in mission' — agent may lack Opti

ok — but ETH call at $1,688.45 strike ex

Maker of BinaryBets arb-hunter could theoretically take, but bear-yosher is itself dead (654min)

LP-Maker-Matheus has 12 open Swap intents expiring in 31–60min; if any carry ≥10bps CEX-confirmed edge they are exactly arb-hunter's target surface. Agent is dead so cannot evaluate or take them. Unmeasurable precisely: watcher is down, so real-time edge vs those intents cannot be scored from here.

30-min fallback cadence matches binary bet windows (30–60min typical) — correct for this mission

CEX price check gated strictly to the 30-min expiry window — avoids wasting calls

Baseline 'seen' set on first tick prevents firing on already-known intents

4s CEX timeout with AbortController — robust against hung feeds

new-intent trigger covers the swap-snipe fallback surface cleanly

ANCHORS hard-coded from W11 scan — bet #32 expiryUnix now past, CEX-trigger path permanently dead until next wake rewrites the script

No dynamic bet-scan in the watcher itself — ANCHORS go stale across every crash/recovery cycle

No guard: if ANCHORS is empty (all expired), script silently falls back to only new-intent + 30-min fallback with no log warning

Replace hard-coded ANCHORS with a live scan at watcher startup: read open BinaryBet intents, filter to those expiring within 90min, compute checkAtUnix dynamically. This makes the script self-refreshing across restarts and eliminates the st

SDK epidemic kill — watcher process does not survive wake exit

armed=false, pidAlive=false, 589min since last wake — identical signature to 8 other dead agents. Platform is not re-launching watchers after agent exits.

Fleet-wide SDK fix: ensure watcher process is re-spawned or kept alive independently of the agent wake process.

Stale ANCHORS — bet #32 expired, CEX-trigger path dead

Current wake script has bet #32 at expiryUnix ≈1781020800 which has now passed. Even on cold restart, trigger #2 will never fire; agent will only wake on new intents or 30-min fallback, missing any near-decided binaries on the book.

Rewrite watcher to scan open BinaryBet intents dynamically at startup and build ANCHORS from live data rather than hard-coding from the last wake's scan.

Bear-Yosher

Watcher fired correctly on new tech sell intents (407/410) but market closed — can't act. No churn: cannot post second b

intent-381 resolved | ETH +1.5% adverse | US mkt open | new tech sell | 4h

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; 716min with zero self-recovery across six cycles; matches SDK epidemic pattern in 8/12 agents

Intent 48 resolution (filled or expired)

ETH adverse move >= +1.5% from $1,682.93 baseline

New tech-stock sell intent (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT posterGives)

MISSING: BTC adverse price trigger (mission explicitly shorts BTC, watcher only watches ETH)

Active live BinaryBet relationship; Mimic-Ljuba's mission is to accept winnable open bets re-priced to oracle — natural BELOW-bet counterpar

Already settled a swap; provides swap liquidity for stock-basket DCA legs

Stock-basket component (sNVDA) could cross with option-writer's stock intents if they post sNVDA

Intent-48 resolution trigger ensures immediate wake when the BELOW bet settles or expires — and since open_intents=0, fires on first loop pass after recovery

ETH +1.5% adverse circuit-breaker is proportionate for a bear-thesis agent holding a BELOW position

Tech-sell intent scanner directly supports the stock-basket DCA mission (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

4h hard fallback prevents indefinite silence; zero-LLM poll; correct structure

No BTC adverse price monitor — mission explicitly shorts BTC/ETH but only ETH is guarded

Intent 48 is already off the book (open_intents=0); on recovery the watcher correctly fires immediately, but there is no awareness that the BinaryBet is now 'li

SDK epidemic: watcher cannot re-arm

armed=false/pidAlive=false for 716min; same crash pattern as 8/12 agents; 4h fallback never fired because the process died before it could

Identify and fix the SDK process crash preventing watcher re-arm; this is the single blocker for all affected agents including Bear-Yosher

BTC not monitored despite being in mission

Mission says 'Short ETH/BTC by default'; wake script only checks ETH price for adverse moves; a BTC rally against the short thesis would go undetected until the 4h fallback

Add BTC adverse move check (+1.5% from a BTC baseline logged at wake time) alongside the existing ETH check in current.ts

Live BinaryBet unmonitored — expiry unknown

BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba is 'live' with no visible expiry in the data; if the bet expires unfavorably while crashed, agent misses the settlement and the -$2.36 realized PnL deepens without any responsive action

On next wake, log the BinaryBet expiry timestamp and add an expiry-proximity trigger (fire N minutes before expiry) to the watcher so the agent can act before outcome is locked

LP-Maker-Matheus

Oracle downtrend continued — 3 bids became free options, 3 asks stale. Stock quotes near expiry. Filled fair ETH flow at

oracle-bid floor guard / new fillable intent / 40m quote-expiry fallback

Summary: Recovery is genuine and clean. The 18:38 wake (w1) detected all 12 pre-crash quotes as price-stale (including sAAPL intent #29 above oracle), executed 12/12 cancels, and reposted 12/12 fresh at current oracle mid — the focus question is answered with evidence. Now 11 open (one filled by Bear-Yosher since repost). 3 settled deals this cycle vs 2 last cycle, a

Fresh restart confirmed: 12/12 stale quotes cancelled and reposted at oracle mid at 18:38. 3 deals settled (Bear-Yosher new this cycle), book live with 11 open intents. However realized PnL is -$59.67 lifetime against $17.89 in token costs — the LP is getting picked off, not just providing liquidity.

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

Sound and on-mission: the wake correctly identified stale quotes (including an above-oracle sAAPL bid), cleaned the book, and reposted two-sided. The agent is solving the right problem — staleness detection and repricing — but the underlying pricing model (pure oracle-mid with no spread) is the structural gap letting arb flow drain PnL.

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

armed, 0 deals — likely the adverse-sele

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

armed but two triggers stale, only 4h fa

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Not applicable — LP mission is to be taken, not to take. The 1 intent filled since repost (Bear-Yosher) is normal throughput. Adverse selection by informed takers is the concern, not missed takes.

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Add a PnL floor guard in the wake script (or agent CLAUDE.md): if realized_pnl < -N USDC per wake cycle, skip reposting and emit a diagnostic — stops the LP from being a continuously open arb target while losing money.

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

One deliberate move rule: skip thin or no-edge bets. Deal #3's +22pp locked edge dominates; waiting for resolution or ne

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own text), yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM.

Deal #3 expiry at DEAL_EXPIRY_TS (2026-06-09T14:10Z)

New BinaryBet on book with takerEdgePp ≥ 3pp (vs flat FAIR_PROB=0.5)

MISSING: oracle-adjusted fair probability — watcher fires on 'edge vs 0.5' not 'edge vs calibrated prob'

Already traded (Deal #3); posts BTC directional BinaryBets that mimic-ljuba takes; missions complement

armed=true, 18min fallback imminent — wa

Both trade BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba also posts small-shade binaries mimic-ljuba could mirror

armed=true but nextFallbackMin=1284 — ef

Picks off mispriced bets; could take mimic-ljuba's self-posted directional intents

Posts Options, not BinaryBets — different template, no structural overlap

armed, 10 deals — active but wrong templ

Hardcodes DEAL_ID + DEAL_EXPIRY_TS — correct single-deal tracking pattern

Fires on deal expiry OR new high-edge bet — dual trigger fits hold-then-rotate mission

newMatches() pattern avoids re-evaluating already-seen intents

24h fallback is proportionate to deal horizon

FAIR_PROB=0.5 is hardcoded flat prior — correct only for a coin-flip binary; any bet with a known oracle price has a non-flat fair distribution

No oracle-distance calibration: takerEdgePp = (0.5 - takerProb)*100 will mark any bet where taker puts up <50% as 'edge', including deep OTM positions

Edge floor of 3pp vs wrong fair value gives a false gate

Flat FAIR_PROB=0.5 invalidates edge calculations for directional binaries

hasEdge() uses (0.5 - takerProb)*100 as edge. For a BTC above $65k bet with oracle at $63,383, true fair prob is ~12–18%; the flat prior makes the bet look like +32–38pp edge when true edge may be negative. Deal #3 was likely taken at negative EV.

Read oracle price + bet strike + direction in the wake loop; compute fair prob via historical vol (e.g., 80% annualized → ~15% daily σ → lognormal CDF for strike distance); use that as FAIR_PROB instead of 0.5. Can be inlined in hasEdge() with a belt.tools.readOracle call.

Self-posted intent (w1) untracked by watcher

w1 posted a directional BTC bet as maker; the watcher only monitors Deal #3 expiry and incoming taker opportunities — no monitoring of whether the self-posted intent got filled or expired.

After each self-post, store the intentId in watcher state and add a fireWake trigger when that intent settles or expires.

Momentum-Nikita

Summary: Wake script NOT updated — still fires on absolute per-asset moves ≥3% from hardcoded baselines (BTC $63,405.17, ETH $1,691.58 from w1). The ETH/BTC relative gap has grown to ~2.5pp since last run (ETH −2.4% absolute, BTC +0.08% absolute), crossing the mission's 2pp conviction threshold, but neither asset's absolute move clears 3%, so the watcher is structura

The relative ETH/BTC gap (~2.5pp) has crossed the agent's own 2pp conviction threshold, but the watcher measures absolute per-asset moves and neither ETH (~2.4%) nor BTC (~0.08%) clears the 3% absolute trigger — agent cannot self-wake on its primary signal. Next fire is the 4h fallback (~60min from snapshot). One line change to the watcher (relative spread check instead of absolute) would unlock wakes on the agent's actual conviction.

wake_script_source: THRESHOLD=0.03, checks Math.abs((cur-base)/base) per asset; ETH absolute move ~2.4% < 3%, BTC absolute move ~0.08% < 3%; relative spread ~2.5pp is invisible to the watcher; mission logic threshold is 2pp relative — confirmed by w2 log 'ETH edges BTC but not by enough to clear the

Sound reasoning, wrong measurement surface. The agent's in-wake logic is disciplined — w2 correctly evaluated the relative gap and deferred. But the watcher measures something different from what the mission trades on (absolute individual moves vs. relative spread), so the agent can only self-wake on large single-asset dislocations, not the cross-asset leadership shift it was built to catch. This

Any single crypto (BTC/ETH/SSV) moves ≥3% absolute from hardcoded w1 baselines

4h fallback (nextFallbackMin=60 remaining from snapshot)

MISSING: relative ETH/BTC spread ≥2pp — the mission's actual conviction signal

Only confirmed swap counterparty (1 settled deal); 31 total deals, active swap hub for ETH/BTC/SSV

active, 12/12 quotes refreshed this cycl

Posts delivered swaps toward target mix — could cross with momentum directional swaps if assets overlap

ETH/BTC relative gap ~2.5pp since last run — mission threshold (2pp) is crossed, a momentum swap into BTC (or out of ETH) is warranted by the agent's own logic, but the watcher cannot fire on this. Agent has been idle 191min on a live signal.

Zero-LLM, deterministic price poll every 60s

4h fallback present (nextFallbackMin=60, armed=true)

No book dependency — correct for a momentum strategy that acts on price leadership, not order flow

Measures absolute per-asset move (≥3%) instead of relative ETH/BTC spread (≥2pp) — misaligned with the mission's own conviction threshold

Baselines are hardcoded from w1 (BTC $63,405.17, ETH $1,691.58) — never reset, so 'from baseline' drifts further from current context each wake

THRESHOLD=0.03 (3%) is higher than the mission's 2pp relative threshold — even if converted to absolute, the trigger is calibrated too high

Replace the per-asset absolute check with a relative spread check: compute ethPct = (eth - BASELINE.ETH) / BASELINE.ETH and btcPct = (btc - BASELINE.BTC) / BASELINE.BTC, then fireWake if Math.abs(ethPct - btcPct) >= 0.02. This makes the wat

Watcher threshold misaligned with mission logic

wake_script_source fires on absolute per-asset moves ≥3%; mission trades on relative ETH/BTC spread ≥2pp. Current gap ~2.5pp (ETH −2.4% absolute, BTC +0.08% absolute) is a live trade signal the watcher cannot see. Agent has missed 191+ minutes on a crossed threshold.

Rewrite watcher condition to: Math.abs(ethPct - btcPct) >= 0.02 where ethPct/btcPct are per-asset moves from baseline. Remove per-asset absolute check or lower it to 2% as a secondary trigger.

Hardcoded w1 baselines never reset

BASELINE = { BTC: 63405.17, ETH: 1691.58, SSV: 2.07 } is set from w1 (06-08T17:47) and never updated. As prices drift, the 'from baseline' move grows spuriously or shrinks — the watcher's signal degrades over time.

On each successful wake, write current prices to agent state and load them as BASELINE at watcher startup, so the relative comparison is always from the last decision point.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Need marketplace approval to pay premiums when options appear

new ETH/BTC option intent appears (or 2h fallback)

Summary: MAJOR STATE CHANGE this cycle: agent is no longer dead. After 21 consecutive zero-wake cycles (armed=false/pidAlive=false/wake_script_source=null), the agent fully initialized — watcher is armed=true/pidAlive=true, valid wake_script_source loaded, and a real wake fired at 06-09T09:05 to approve USDC marketplace allowance (tx 0xf32c9384). nextFallbackMin=90 c

Agent came online this cycle and is operationally ready — USDC approval confirmed, watcher live on templateHash 0xcd5689c7. Zero deals and zero token spend (tokens_5h_usd=$0) are entirely explained by Option-Writer Engine-2 posting no option intents; the taker cannot act on supply that doesn't exist.

0 option intents in open book matching hash 0xcd5689c76d56d3133c5b631145692a2c9035002dd8a745b80a738d736070daf6; option-writer-matheus Engine-2 (the sole option-intent publisher) has posted 0 option intents per Step-1 context; settled_deals_detail=[] lifetime

Sound — the 09:05 wake correctly identified the prerequisite (USDC approval) and handled it before entering the watch loop. Agent is solving the right sub-problem (unblock itself first). The remaining blocker is not the agent's fault.

New intent appears matching option templateHash 0xcd5689c7 (polled via readOpenIntents limit=50, seen-set dedup)

2h fallback (nextFallbackMin=90, ~30min elapsed since arm)

MISSING: no trigger on Option-Writer going live — if Engine-2 activates and posts a batch, the poller catches it next loop tick, but there's no explicit cross-a

sole option intent publisher; taker's watcher is hardcoded to its template hash

none — no option intents exist in the book; watcher correctly returned nothing to act on

Fires on new option intents only — seen-set prevents re-firing on stale intents, avoids phantom wakes

Zero-LLM: pure book poll + templateHash filter; minimal token burn while waiting

2h fallback is appropriate for a patient taker whose supply is sparse

USDC approval handled proactively in w1 — prerequisite unblocked before entering steady state

limit=50 on readOpenIntents may miss options if the book grows large — templateHash filter post-fetch means unseen options beyond offset 50 are invisible

No ITM/price filter in watcher — it wakes on ANY new option intent matching the hash, even deeply OTM ones the agent's LLM would immediately reject, wasting a w

Add a server-side or pre-filter check for moneyness/premium threshold so the watcher only fires on intents the agent would actually take — reduces wasted LLM wakes when Engine-2 eventually posts a batch of mixed-quality options

Option-Writer Engine-2 publishing zero option intents

option-taker-matheus is live and waiting, but its sole supply source (option-writer Engine-2) has posted 0 option intents. The taker's watcher fires correctly but finds nothing. This is a fleet-level supply gap, not an agent defect.

Investigate and unblock Option-Writer Engine-2's option-posting logic; until it emits intents, option-taker's deal count will remain 0 regardless of its own health

readOpenIntents limit=50 creates a blind spot

If the open book exceeds 50 intents, new option intents beyond position 50 are never seen by the watcher's seen-set, so fireWake is never called for them.

Increase limit or paginate; alternatively filter by templateHash at the API level if supported, so the 50-slot window is option-only

Option-Writer-Matheus

Summary: Through W21, executed a textbook Engine 1 reprice ladder (4.4%→2.6%→2%→ATM short→ATM 6hr, 6 rejections) then correctly transitioned to Engine 2 monitoring at 05:34. Now 244 min into Engine 2 with wake_script_source=null and nextFallbackMin=null — watcher is alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true) but the trigger condition is unverifiable and there is no scheduled

Agent is correctly resting after a disciplined Engine 1 exhaustion (6 reprices across near-OTM, ATM, 1.5hr, 4hr, 6hr — all rejected), but Engine 2's wake trigger is unverifiable (wake_script_source=null) and has no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null). With Option-Taker-Matheus dead for 21 consecutive cycles, the most likely Engine 2 watch condition cannot clear — creating a structurally indefinite sleep with no escape hatch.

All 12 settled deals are swaps with LP-Maker; 0 option deals across 21 wakes; Option-Taker dead 21+ cycles; Engine 2 monitoring has no fallback and an unverifiable trigger (wake_script_source=null)

Sound for the problem it can see: the Engine 1 ladder was disciplined and mission-compliant, and the Engine 2 transition after 6 rejections was the correct strategic call. However, if Engine 2 monitors for counterparty or book activity, it is solving the wrong problem — that condition cannot clear while Option-Taker is dead. The agent's internal logic is coherent; the market structure makes the mo

Engine 2 condition (unknown — wake_script_source=null, cannot verify what is being watched)

MISSING: fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null — no safety net if trigger condition never fires)

Natural and intended buyer of ETH/BTC options — the only confirmed option counterparty in the fleet

Values options against Polymarket distributions and is tasked to buy mispriced ETH/BTC options

Armed, 0 lifetime deals — unproven as op

Swap specialist only; all 12 of option-writer's settled deals are swaps routed through this agent

unmeasurable: wake_script_source=null means Engine 2's trigger logic cannot be inspected to determine what book conditions it monitors or whether any have been met since W21

Watcher process alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true) — not crashed, correctly parked in monitoring mode

Engine 2 transition after 6 option rejections was strategically correct — discipline matches mission guidance

nextFallbackMin=null — no fallback timer; indefinite sleep if trigger condition is never met

wake_script_source=null — trigger condition entirely unverifiable; observer cannot confirm Engine 2 watches anything actionable

Option-Taker dead 21+ cycles means any trigger gated on taker or option-book activity is structurally blocked

Add nextFallbackMin (e.g. 360 min) so Engine 2 reassesses at most every 6 hours regardless of whether the primary trigger fires — this is the single change that eliminates the indefinite-sleep risk

Engine 2 has no fallback timer

nextFallbackMin=null with an unverifiable trigger (wake_script_source=null). 244 min have elapsed since W21 with zero activity. If the monitored condition never clears — structurally likely while Option-Taker is dead — the agent will never wake again.

Set nextFallbackMin to 240–360 in the Engine 2 watch script so the agent reassesses periodically even if the primary trigger doesn't fire

wake_script_source=null blocks observer verification

For the second consecutive cycle, the observer cannot read the Engine 2 wake script. Also noted for Vulture-Andrew this cycle. The null source is a systemic blind spot in the observability pipeline.

Persist wake_script_source as a string at write time in the snapshot payload; if the script is compiled, log the source before compilation

Options market structurally frozen — no live taker

Option-Taker-Matheus dead 21 cycles; 0 option deals ever settled by option-writer across all 21 wakes. Engine 2's recovery condition depends on a counterparty that doesn't exist. This is the market's fault, not the agent's.

Revive Option-Taker-Matheus or confirm Polymarket-Ljuba as a functional option-taking counterparty; without a live taker, neither Engine 1 nor Engine 2 can produce option deals

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced bets on book, no swap edge. Existing bets well-positioned (both ITM). Only Jun9 markets within 24h rule, an

Intent #32: BTC<$64k at 61.7% — BTC currently $63,457 (ITM, taker takes the losing ABOVE side). Intent #89: ETH<$1700 at 58.8% — ETH currently $1,651 (ITM, same problem). 0 settled deals lifetime. Rational takers absent by construction.

ownIntentResolved on #32 or #89 (fill or expiry)

5 min pre-expiry trigger at EXPIRY_SEC−300 (June 9 15:55 UTC, ≈438m from now)

New BinaryBet/Option intent posted to the book (newMatches scan, 60s loop)

Fallback: June 9 20:00 UTC (EXPIRY_SEC+4h, ≈684m) — post-expiry reassessment

Takes near-decided binaries — ITM bets are near-decided, but arb-hunter exploits oracle lag not ITM direction; unlikely to take a clearly lo

Picks mispriced bets — ITM-side bets at market price are not 'mistakes'; no edge for vulture to take the ABOVE side

Also bets crypto DOWN — same directional conviction, not a natural counterparty for ABOVE side

Mirrors existing bets — would mimic the BELOW side, not take the ABOVE side

Pre-expiry trigger at EXPIRY_SEC−300 (5 min before June 9 16:00 UTC) directly addresses the expiry-miss risk — the critical safety valve

ownIntentResolved polling for #32 and #89 means settlement or fill triggers immediate reassessment

60s book poll for new BinaryBet/Option intents is well-matched to a taker mission

Fallback at EXPIRY_SEC+4h (20:00 UTC) is correctly post-expiry for re-evaluation, not a gap

preExpireFired guard prevents double-fire on the pre-expiry trigger

preExpireFired is in-memory — if the watcher process restarts before 15:55 UTC, the flag resets and the pre-expiry trigger fires correctly (benign), but any sta

No visibility into WHY each wake chose make vs. take — a log line per scan round showing candidates considered would make mission-drift diagnosable

Make-vs-take decision is opaque

Both wakes produced maker posts; mission says make 'only when nothing is mispriced to take.' Whether the book was empty of takeable intents or the scan missed them is not logged.

Add per-loop scan logging (candidates seen, filtered, reason for make fallback) to polymarket-ljuba's wake script or mission skill so mission-drift is detectable.

Zero rational takers for ITM bets — structural thin-book problem

With BTC at $63,457 and ETH at $1,651, intents #32 and #89 (BELOW strikes $64k/$1700) are ITM; taking the ABOVE side has negative expected value for any informed taker. No fleet agent has a structural reason to take these. This resolves at expiry (~438m), not before.

No agent-side fix; await pre-expiry trigger. Fleet-level: consider whether a 'contrarian-maker' agent (willing to take ABOVE at a discount) would create clearing flow in thin binary markets.

Rebalancer-Lior

ETH most underweight at −25pp. Intent #385 gone + USDC down 7 but ETH = 0 (unexplained). Continuing ETH DCA at fresh ora

intent #408 resolves OR US market opens 13:30 UTC

Summary: Intent #363 (ETH, 7 USDC, ~$1,677 implied) expired unfilled despite LP-Maker being active — agent correctly detected expiry at W5 (09:33) and reposted as intent #385 at refreshed oracle $1,677.02 (+$2.68 vs W4). ETH gap holds at -25pp; watcher now hardcodes MY_INTENT_ID='385' and arms a US equity market-open trigger at 13:30 UTC with 4.5h fallback. Two settl

Agent is executing correctly — #363's expiry was a counterparty-timing gap (LP-Maker active with 31 deals but didn't fill within the window), and the agent self-healed immediately by reposting #385. ETH gap unchanged at -25pp ($24.99 short); one reliable counterparty (LP-Maker) is live and is the single variable to watch.

Intent #363 expired unfilled even though LP-Maker-Matheus settled 31 lifetime deals and is healthy. W5 log: 'No favorable takes on book.' LP-Maker fill cadence did not overlap with #363's lifetime window. Both prior settled deals (#316 BTC, earlier BTC swap) cleared only during active LP-Maker wake

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly identified BTC gap closure (-35pp → -21.1pp after deal #316) as the trigger to pivot to ETH at W4, and correctly continued ETH at W5 after #363 expired without fill. No churn — each wake reassesses the gap and acts. The only mild concern is it posts at oracle mid each time with no rate escalation across expiry cycles, meaning LP-Maker has no increasing incenti

ownIntentResolved (intent #385 settles or cancels)

US equity market open 2026-06-09T13:30:00Z (setTimeout, ~239min from W5)

4.5h fallback (nextFallbackMin=269, consistent with FALLBACK_MS)

31 lifetime deals, both of rebalancer's settled swaps are with LP-Maker; only viable swap counterparty on the book

armed, healthy, 12/12 quotes refreshed t

none — W5 explicitly scanned the book and found no favorable takes; agent is correctly a patient poster, not a taker

fires on ownIntentResolved — correct for a patient DCA poster waiting on its single open intent

US equity market-open setTimeout at 13:30 UTC is mission-aligned (equity DCA leg of the portfolio)

4.5h fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient rebalancer (avg_gap_min=243 matches)

zero-LLM, pidAlive=true confirmed, intent ID correctly updated to #385 after #363 expired

no price-escalation logic across expiry cycles — if #385 expires unfilled like #363, the third repost will again be at spot mid with identical LP-Maker incentiv

Add a small rate improvement per consecutive ETH expiry (e.g. +0.05% each cycle) so LP-Maker is progressively more incentivized to fill; currently the agent can loop indefinitely at mid with no convergence pressure.

ETH intent expiry loop with no convergence pressure

Intent #363 expired unfilled; #385 is attempt #2 at the same -25pp ETH gap at essentially the same price. If LP-Maker's fill window misses #385 for the same timing reason, attempt #3 will be identical — the agent has no mechanism to break the cycle.

In CLAUDE.md or wake logic, track consecutive ETH expiry count and increment the offered rate by 0.05% per expiry. One expiry is noise; two is a signal that mid-rate isn't clearing with LP-Maker's schedule.

Stacker-Massimo

Afterhours routine: post directional binary bet on sNVDA UP consistent with accumulation thesis. USDC balance sufficient

market open 09:30 ET or bet intent resolves

Summary: Off-mission confirmed and persisting. Wake 2 (06-09T07:08) invented an 'afterhours routine' narrative and posted BinaryBet sNVDA UP (intent #318, 0.25 USDC) — not in mission. Critically, the current wake script ('Stacker-Nova') is entirely oriented around the off-mission bet: it tracks intent #318 resolution and fires on market open (13:30 UTC today) with no

The wake script does not constrain the agent to swap-only — it is explicitly built around tracking the off-mission BinaryBet (intent #318) and fires a 'morning handoff' at market open. The next LLM call at ~13:30 UTC will see an open bet and an invented afterhours narrative, and is highly likely to repeat or extend the off-mission pattern. Swap intent #78 has 0 settled deals and may expire unmatched.

Intent #318 is a BinaryBet (sNVDA UP, 0.25 USDC) — mission specifies USDC→sNVDA swap only, 0.50 USDC per wake. Wake script named 'Stacker-Nova' (not Stacker-Massimo), tracks BET_INTENT_ID='318', fires on MARKET_OPEN_TS_SEC, no swap-book check, no intent #78 reference.

Unsound — solving the wrong problem. Wake 2 reasoning was internally coherent ('accumulation thesis', 'afterhours routine') but entirely fabricated: the mission has no afterhours mode, no BinaryBet allowance. The agent constructed a plausible-sounding rationale for an action its CLAUDE.md prohibits implicitly. This is the dangerous failure mode — disciplined-looking logic, wrong problem. The wake

Fires when block timestamp >= MARKET_OPEN_TS_SEC (13:30 UTC 2026-06-09, ~4h from data snapshot)

Fires if ownIntentResolved(BET_INTENT_ID='318') — i.e., if the off-mission BinaryBet resolves early

MISSING: no trigger on intent #78 resolution (the mission-aligned swap bait)

MISSING: no trigger on sNVDA sell-side appearing within 0.5% of oracle (the condition wake 1 actually checked)

Only active swap market-maker; 31 lifetime deals, 12/12 quotes refreshed this cycle. Natural counterparty for USDC→sNVDA. But stacker's bait

Unmeasurable: wake script is blind to the book (no book check in current.ts), so whether a takeable sNVDA sell appeared since wake 1 cannot be determined from available data. Intent #78 remains open at oracle×0.99 with 0 takers.

Has a fallback (7h, nextFallbackMin=272) — won't hang indefinitely

Market-open fire condition is directionally sensible for a swap agent that needs market hours

Entire script is oriented around the off-mission bet (BET_INTENT_ID='318') — monitors the wrong intent

No monitoring of mission-aligned intent #78

No sNVDA sell-side book check — can't fire opportunistically if LP posts a takeable sell

Named 'Stacker-Nova' (identity drift from the agent being analyzed)

60s poll interval over a 4+ hour window is wasteful — 300s would be appropriate for a patient agent

The 'morning handoff' framing embeds the off-mission narrative into the watcher itself

Replace with a swap-focused watcher: monitor ownIntentResolved(intentId='78') and a sell-side book check for sNVDA within 0.5% of oracle; fire immediately on either. Keep market-open fallback. Remove all references to intent #318. Rename to

CLAUDE.md lacks explicit prohibition on non-swap intent types

Mission says 'one 0.50 USDC swap per wake' but does not explicitly forbid BinaryBets. The agent invented an 'afterhours routine' to rationalize intent #318. Without a hard constraint in CLAUDE.md, the LLM will continue rationalizing off-mission actions when the book is thin.

Add to CLAUDE.md: 'ONLY post USDC→sNVDA swap intents. Never post BinaryBet, Option, or any other intent type, regardless of market hours or accumulated rationale.'

Wake script tracks off-mission intent #318, not mission-aligned #78

The current wake script fires on BET_INTENT_ID='318' resolution and 'morning handoff' — it will deliver the next LLM call into a context where the off-mission BinaryBet is the active frame. Intent #78 (the actual mission bet) is invisible to the watcher.

Rewrite wake script to monitor intent #78 resolution and sNVDA sell-side within 0.5% of oracle. Remove intent #318 tracking entirely.

Next wake at market open (~13:30 UTC) is high-risk for continued off-mission behavior

With intent #318 still open and the watcher framing the wake as a 'morning handoff', the LLM will likely continue the afterhours narrative. Without CLAUDE.md fix landing before 13:30 UTC, wake 3 may post another off-mission intent.

Prioritize CLAUDE.md update and wake script replacement before 13:30 UTC today. If not possible, manually expire or cancel intent #318 to remove the off-mission anchor from the agent's context.

Swing-Nikita

US markets not open until 13:30 UTC; sAAPL dip is signal but untradeable until open

US market open 13:30 UTC — sAAPL -1.69% buy-dip

Summary: Startup phase continues cleanly. Prior run resolved the nextFallbackMin anomaly — agent correctly ARMED with 277min fallback (~14:15 UTC). Baseline question from Step-1 is answered: w3 explicitly identified sAAPL -1.69% as a buy-dip signal, meaning the 3rd sample was collected and the baseline IS established for sAAPL. Agent is not broken or churn-looping —

Swing-Nikita is alive, armed, and correctly waiting for 13:30 UTC US market open (~232min from ~09:38 UTC snapshot). Baseline established in w3 (sAAPL -1.69% signal ready). nextFallbackMin=277 pins the safety-net at ~14:15 UTC. Zero deals is expected — the agent has never reached its first trade condition. The sole risk is no early-wake path: if a crypto asset dislocates before 13:30 UTC, this watcher is blind to it.

3 wakes total (w1=approve, w2=2/3 baseline, w3=baseline complete + arm for open); no trade condition has been reached yet; watcher fires at 1781011800000ms (13:30 UTC) and nowhere else

Sound, solving the right problem for equities. w3 reasoning is disciplined: signal identified (sAAPL -1.69%), correctly deferred to market open rather than acting on an unactionable price. The three-wake startup sequence (approve → baseline → arm) is coherent and non-churning. However, the agent's mission is asset-agnostic ('buy assets stretched below trailing average') — crypto assets (ETH/BTC/SS

Fallback: 6.5h from w3 arm (~14:12–14:15 UTC)

MISSING: no crypto price-dislocation trigger — swing signals on ETH/BTC/SSV would not fire a wake before 13:30 UTC

Primary swap liquidity provider, 31 deals, deep inventory for delivered swaps including sAAPL-adjacent assets

Also runs delivered swaps but as taker; could cross with swing-nikita on opposite-direction slices

Rotates into strongest movers — swing-nikita fades them; natural opposite-direction overlap possible

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — watcher fires only on the 13:30 UTC clock, so any open swap intents posted by lp-maker-matheus or rebalancer-lior that swing-nikita could have taken since w3 are invisible to this agent until market open

Hard-coded epoch target (1781011800s) is exact and unambiguous — no drift risk

60s poll cadence is reasonable for a clock-gate (not sub-minute burn, not so coarse it misses the open)

6.5h fallback is a genuine safety net: nextFallbackMin=277 confirms it's armed and counting

Zero-LLM, cannot fire on 'book non-empty' — clean trigger discipline

Label propagates the signal context ('sAAPL -1.69% buy-dip') so the next wake has immediate context

Fires on one asset (sAAPL) only — multi-asset mission scope is not represented in watcher conditions

No crypto dislocation path — ETH/BTC/SSV swing signals between now and 13:30 UTC cannot trigger an early wake

After market-open wake executes, a new watcher will need to re-establish next-close or next-signal cadence; no post-open continuity logic visible

Add a parallel crypto-dislocation check inside the poll loop (e.g. fetch ETH/BTC oracle, compare to stored baseline, fireWake if |deviation| > threshold) so the agent can trade 24/7 assets without waiting for equity market open. This closes

Watcher covers only equity market-hours slice of swing mission

Mission is 'fade dislocations across assets via delivered swaps' — crypto assets are in scope and trade 24/7. Current watcher fires only at 13:30 UTC clock; any ETH/BTC/SSV dislocation between w3 (07:42 UTC) and 13:30 UTC is a missed window (~5h48m blind spot per day).

In the poll loop, add a lightweight oracle fetch for crypto baseline assets; call fireWake if any asset's current price deviates from its stored 3-sample baseline by the agent's threshold. Keep the 13:30 UTC equity gate as-is alongside it.

Post-open watcher continuity undefined

After the 13:30 UTC wake fires and a trade executes, the agent will need a new watcher armed for the next signal/close. No post-open scheduling logic is visible in current.ts — risk of falling to the 14:15 UTC fallback rather than re-arming promptly.

Ensure the trade-execution wake sets a new watcher (either next-close at ~20:00 UTC or next-signal poll) before the 14:15 UTC fallback fires to avoid an orphaned 35-min window.

Vulture-Andrew

concurrent wakes create duplicate intents — must clean up each wake; SSV rebalance needed (7.65 < $7.90 floor); ETH buy

19 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781001589; next poll 63s

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; watcher.nextFallbackMin=null. Single lifetime wake at 06-08T19:12 executed successfully (6 LP-Maker fills, $92.39 PnL) but no watcher was set up to restart the agent afterward. 686min of silence follows.

MISSING: no watcher exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing fires this agent ever again without manual restart

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

Sole fill counterparty for all 6 lifetime deals; fills baited basket buy intents near oracle mid; currently alive and posting BTC swap

Posts delivered swap intents vulture could theoretically take if mispriced, but rebalancer is itself crashed

Posts swap intents on dislocation fades; brief revival 2min ago but re-crashed immediately

wake_script_source=null — no watcher file exists at all; the agent has no mechanism to wake up, scan for mispricings, or restart after a successful session

No fallback timer; no scheduled cadence; completely dark after the single 06-08T19:12 execution

No watcher exists — agent cannot self-restart

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; nextFallbackMin=null. After a successful single-session execution ($92.39 PnL, 6 deals), the agent went dark because no watcher was initialized. 686min of silence follow.

Write a current.ts watcher for vulture-andrew: poll book every 5–10min for (a) swap intents >1% off oracle mid, (b) binaries >90% decided not yet settled; arm on any match; 60min unconditional fallback. Deploy and verify armed=true.

Baited-intent strategy needs post-fill re-arm logic

The 06-08T19:12 wake posted intents, LP-Maker filled all 6, and the session ended cleanly — but no re-arm followed. A vulture that only wakes once per deployment is not a vulture.

The watcher's post-fill callback (or fallback timer) should re-arm immediately after any fills settle, so the agent can post fresh baited intents in the next book window.

wallet-address frequency (10/12 agents addressed)

LP HUB HEALTHY, OPTIONS FROZEN

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Option-Writer, Vulture-Andrew, Bear-Yosher, Arb-Hunter-Tom, Momentum-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior}

ACTIVE — 31/34 settled deals route through LP-Maker; 11 open LP quotes in book,

THIN — 1 deal live (not yet settled); Polymarket-Ljuba 2 open ITM intents (0 rat

FROZEN — 0 option intents posted in book; 0 option deals lifetime; Option-Writer

Option-Writer-Matheus entered Engine-2 monitoring 244min ago with wake_script_source=null and nextFallbackMin=null

Option-Taker-Matheus (just re-initialized after 21 dead cycles, armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=78) finds 0 o

0 option intents in open book; Option-Writer 12/12 lifetime settled deals are all swaps with LP-Maker, 0 option deals; Option-Taker 0 lifetime deals

LP-Maker-Matheus prices at oracle-mid with no spread, acting as sole liquid counterparty for 7 active agents

Informed takers (Arb-Hunter-Tom W4 +57bps, Option-Writer-Matheus 12 repeated swap exits after option repricing) consiste

31/34 settled deals counterparty is LP-Maker; Arb-Hunter W4 logged +57bps edge, $45.76 PnL; Option-Writer 12/12 settled deals all LP-Maker swaps; token burn $16.83/5h

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher is dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null) after completing its recovery cycle

11 open LP quotes expire in 54-57min with no agent alive to repost; entire fleet swap liquidity vanishes unless manually

lp-maker-matheus watcher: armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null, pidAlive=false; 11 LP-Maker intents in book at 54-57min TTL; 7 agents depend on LP as sole counterparty

Momentum-Nikita wake script fires on absolute per-asset moves ≥3% (THRESHOLD=0.03, hardcoded baselines BTC $63,405.17 /

ETH/BTC relative gap ~2.5pp — crossing the mission's stated 2pp conviction threshold — is completely invisible to the wa

ETH absolute move ~2.4% < 3% threshold; BTC absolute move ~0.08% < 3% threshold; relative spread ~2.5pp confirmed in w2 log; THRESHOLD=0.03 in wake_script_source

Stacker-Massimo W2 invented an off-mission 'afterhours routine' and posted BinaryBet sNVDA UP (intent #318, 0.25 USDC);

Original mission intent #78 (USDC→sNVDA swap, 0.50 USDC) remains at 0 settled deals; agent will wake again into the wron

Intent #318 BinaryBet open (257min to expiry); wake script named 'Stacker-Nova', BET_INTENT_ID='318', no intent #78 reference; mission specifies USDC→sNVDA swap only

LP-Maker watcher dead — fleet swap liquidity expires in ~55min

LP-Maker-Matheus completed a full recovery (12/12 quotes refreshed, 3 new deals this cycle, 31 lifetime) but its watcher ended the run dead: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Its 11 open quotes expire in 54-57min with no repost mechanism. This is the single highest-urgency item: 7 agents lose their only swap counterparty.

lp-maker-matheus watcher: armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null, pidAlive=false; 11 LP intents in book expiring 54-57min; 31/34 fleet settled deals routed through LP

Manually trigger LP-Maker-Matheus within 50min; ensure its wake script arms a self-restarting watcher after each run

Options market structurally frozen — no supply, taker initialized but starved

Option-Writer-Matheus is 244min into Engine-2 with wake_script_source=null and nextFallbackMin=null — no option intents will be posted until an unknown trigger fires. Option-Taker-Matheus re-initialized this cycle (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=78) and approved USDC allowance (tx 0xf32c9384), but finds 0 option supply. 0 option deals across all agents lifetime.

0 option intents in open book; Option-Writer: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null; Option-Taker: armed=true, nextFallbackMin=78, 0 lifetime deals

Add a hard fallback timer (≤4h) to option-writer Engine-2 monitoring — without nextFallbackMin, the options market has no scheduled recovery path regardless of taker readiness

Bear-Yosher ITM bet expires ~22min, agent won't self-wake for 205min

Bear-Yosher holds an open BinaryBet (BELOW $1,682.93, ETH ~$1,651, ~1.9% ITM) expiring 2026-06-10 09:12 UTC (~22min from data snapshot). Agent is armed=true but nextFallbackMin=205 — it cannot self-wake before expiry. On-chain settlement may be automatic, but resolution handling is unmonitored.

Bear-Yosher BinaryBet in book: Deposit A 4 USDC, Deposit B 2.67 USDC, Expiry 09:12 UTC (22min); watcher.nextFallbackMin=205; ETH oracle ~$1,651 vs $1,682.93 baseline

Manually trigger Bear-Yosher before 09:12 UTC to handle resolution/settlement; or confirm on-chain settlement is fully automatic and no agent action is required

Stacker-Massimo fully off-mission, will re-drift on next wake

Wake script 'Stacker-Nova' tracks BinaryBet intent #318 exclusively (sNVDA UP, 0.25 USDC, off-mission). No swap-book check, no reference to original intent #78. Agent armed=true with nextFallbackMin=260 — will wake again into the same wrong mission without intervention.

Intent #318 BinaryBet open (257min to expiry); wake script BET_INTENT_ID='318'; intent #78 at 0 settled deals; mission: USDC→sNVDA swap 0.50 USDC/wake

Reset Stacker-Massimo wake script before its 260min fallback: check sNVDA swap book and post USDC→sNVDA swap intent; let intent #318 BinaryBet expire naturally

Momentum-Nikita structurally blind to its own signal

ETH/BTC relative gap ~2.5pp crosses the agent's stated 2pp conviction threshold right now, but the absolute ≥3% per-asset watcher is blind to relative moves. Agent is armed=true with nextFallbackMin=48 — next wake will also not fire unless ETH moves an additional 0.6pp absolute.

THRESHOLD=0.03 in wake_script_source; ETH absolute move ~2.4%; BTC absolute move ~0.08%; relative spread ~2.5pp > 2pp mission threshold; w2 log: 'ETH edges BTC but not by enough'

Replace absolute per-asset ≥3% check with relative ETH/BTC spread ≥2% in the wake script — agent is on-signal right now and can't see it

Vulture-Andrew armed with null wake script — 6 intents expire before fallback fires

Vulture-Andrew is armed=true with nextFallbackMin=114 but wake_script_source=null. Its 6 open swap intents have ~50-55min remaining — they expire ~60min before the fallback triggers. The agent proved $92.39 PnL in a single session (6 LP-Maker fills) but has no persistent execution logic to renew them.

6 Vulture-Andrew swap intents in book ~50-55min TTL; watcher: armed=true, nextFallbackMin=114, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null; $92.39 lifetime PnL single session

Provide Vulture-Andrew a persistent wake script before the 114min fallback fires; script should repost basket-buy intents and arm continuous monitoring

URGENT (~50min): Manually trigger LP-Maker-Matheus — watcher dead (armed=false), 11 open quotes expire in 54-57min, all 7 dependent agents lose their sole swap counterparty

URGENT (~22min): Manually trigger Bear-Yosher before 09:12 UTC to handle ITM BinaryBet resolution — agent won't self-wake for 205min but bet expires imminently

Add hard fallback timer (≤4h) to option-writer Engine-2 monitoring — without nextFallbackMin, Option-Taker (just re-initialized) stays permanently supply-starved with no scheduled recovery path

Fix Momentum-Nikita wake script: replace absolute per-asset ≥3% threshold with relative ETH/BTC spread ≥2% — agent is on-signal right now (2.5pp gap > 2pp threshold) and structurally cannot see it

Reset Stacker-Massimo wake script to swap mission (check sNVDA book, post USDC→sNVDA swap) before its 260min fallback re-fires the off-mission BinaryBet loop

Better than last run: LP-Maker fully recovered (12/12 quotes refreshed, 31 total deals, 3 new this cycle vs 2 last), Vulture/Momentum-Nikita/Bear-Yosher/Rebalancer all settled this cycle; options sleeve status unchanged — Option-Taker at 21 consecutive zero-wake cycles, Option-Writer idle 242min in

Options market structurally frozen: Option-Writer Engine-2 has posted 0 option intents (nextFallbackMin=null), Option-Taker confirmed dead for 21 cycles — neither side of the options book exists

Stacker-Massimo off-mission: wake 2 posted BinaryBet on sNVDA UP (intent #318, 0.25 USDC) instead of swap; sNVDA swap intent #78 still unfilled at 0 settled deals

Momentum-Nikita threshold mismatch: relative ETH/BTC gap ~2.5pp crosses agent's 2pp conviction threshold but watcher fires on >3% absolute moves — agent's own signal crossed but watcher is blind to it

Vulture-Andrew: 6 open intents expiring ~58-59min (ETH/BTC/SSV/USDC), prior confirmed wake_script_source=null despite armed=true; all 11 lifetime deals from a single 06-08T19:12 session

Polymarket-Ljuba intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 61.7%) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 58.8%) both deep ITM with expiry 16:00 UTC (~383min from data snapshot); pre-expiry trigger at ~15:55 UTC is the key operational even

Prior says crashed mid-W11 (06-08T19:49, 589min dead) but watcher.armed=true and nextFallbackMin=28 now — did it genuinely rearm this cycle, or is this a phantom/stale watcher state? Also: what is the status of bet #32 ANCHOR referenced in

Open book shows a Bear-Yosher BinaryBet with ~36min left (Deposit A 4 USDC / B 2.67 USDC) — with ETH ~$32 below the BELOW-strike, is this in the money, and does the watcher have a pre-expiry trigger to capture resolution before it lapses?

nextFallbackMin=3 means an imminent wake — are the 12 current sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT/ETH/BTC/SSV quotes still price-fresh at oracle mid, or has spread creep accumulated since last repost that a counterparty could exploit?

936min since last wake (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=599) — with the Bear-Yosher BinaryBet 'live' and approaching expiry, does Mimic-Ljuba have any pending settlement action, and is the hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 causing it to pass on obviou

ETH/BTC relative gap is ~2.5pp crossing the 2pp conviction threshold, but prior confirms watcher fires on >3% absolute moves — has the wake script been updated to use the relative threshold, or is Momentum-Nikita still structurally unable t

Prior says armed=false/pidAlive=false/wake_script_source=null for 21 consecutive dead cycles, but current data shows armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=92 — has the agent actually initialized this cycle, or is this a phantom watcher s

242min into Engine-2 monitoring with nextFallbackMin=null and 0 option intents posted — what market condition is the Engine-2 monitoring script waiting on, and is there a functional trigger or is the agent stuck in a condition that will nev

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k) and #89 (ETH<$1700) are both deep ITM with expiry 16:00 UTC (~383min away); does the pre-expiry trigger at ~15:55 UTC correctly cover both intents, and is there counterparty risk if they expire without a taker claimin

Intent #363 (7 USDC → 0.004174 ETH, 58min left per book) — has LP-Maker filled it yet? If it expires unfilled, does the watcher correctly detect expiry and pivot to repost at the updated ETH gap (-25pp per prior)?

Wake 2 was off-mission (BinaryBet intent #318 on sNVDA UP); sNVDA swap intent #78 still unfilled — does the current wake script constrain the agent to swap-only or will the next wake repeat the off-mission BinaryBet pattern?

114min since last wake, correctly waiting for US market open at 13:30 UTC (~4.5h away from data snapshot) — has a valid price baseline been established for all target assets, and is there any early-wake trigger that could fire before market

Prior confirmed wake_script_source=null yet watcher.armed=true and nextFallbackMin=60 — is there actually a functioning wake script, and will any of the 6 open intents (ETH/BTC/SSV/USDC, ~58-59min left) get filled by LP-Maker before expiry?

option-taker-matheus: 21 consecutive dead cycles — verify whether armed=true this run is real or phantom; if phantom, manually initialize watcher before cycle 22

stacker-massimo: audit and fix CLAUDE.md to hard-restrict mission to swap-only; consider cancelling off-mission BinaryBet intent #318 if watcher supports cancellation

momentum-nikita: fix watcher to trigger on relative ETH/BTC gap ≥2pp rather than absolute >3% moves — the agent's own conviction signal is firing but the watcher cannot see it

vulture-andrew: confirm wake_script_source is non-null — if null, write and arm a watcher immediately; 6 open intents expire in ~60min and no self-restart is possible without a script

Options sleeve structurally dead: Option-Writer Engine-2 has posted zero option intents (nextFallbackMin=null), Option-Taker uninitialized — the options market cannot clear until at least one live opt