Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary near-expiry with CEX in-money. Best swap edge (#2390 +84bps) already gone. Remaining resting quotes all priced

new intent >2592 with edge ≥5bps OR crypto binary ≤30min to BET SETTLEMENT with CEX taker in-money OR 30-min fallback (ETH +1bps / BTC -5bps / SSV +8bps regime near-closed — watching fresh anchor)

Summary: Step-1 flagged this agent as crashed (armed=false) but current data shows armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=29 — it was briefly in the re-arm window between w355 completing and the watcher restarting when Step-1 sampled it; this is NOT the persistent PID-death pattern seen in vulture-andrew. The ETH latency-edge regime predicted at w348 fully materi

Agent is healthy and rearmed with a 29-min fallback. Two ETH swap fills this cycle (+26bps, +33bps) both against LP-Maker-Matheus stale anchoring. Binary surface has produced 0 takes across the full visible wake window — structural drought, not agent failure. Realized PnL $3.11 on $2.69 5h token spend is positive-expectancy.

Binary surface: 0 near-expiry binaries with CEX decided across w348–w355. Swap surface active: deals 196 and 198 both sniped LP-Maker-Matheus stale anchoring (+26bps, +33bps). #2591 reverted (non-standard template poster, HWM advanced past it). No systematic gate or toolchain block.

Sound and solving the right problem. WAITs at w348–w352 were all legitimate: oracle ≤6bps converged or no taker-positive poster on book. The two FILLs fired exactly when genuine latency edge appeared. w355 WAIT correctly identified #2591 as untakeable and advanced HWM. No churn, no re-deriving — the agent is disciplined.

New intent >HWM(2592) with swap edge ≥5bps vs CEX (quick pre-filter before LLM wake)

Crypto binary ≤30min to bet-settlement with CEX already in-money

Primary target — slow oracle anchoring creates repeatable edge; 23 of 25 visible recent deals are LP-Maker fills

2 recent deals — likely opportunistic snipes of vulture bait at stale prices; not a primary flow

armed (nextFallbackMin=39) but health=st

Posts delivered swaps but lot sizes frequently below arb-hunter's viable take threshold

active but lot-size gated by accept-gate

None confirmed — w351 noted #2390 (+84bps) was gone before the wake, suggesting a timing miss, but the prior WAIT was legitimate given no edge at wake time. No evidence of a takeable intent arb-hunter saw and skipped.

HWM baseline on first poll — never fires on pre-existing stale book state

5bps quick swap-edge pre-filter runs before LLM wake, blocking taker-negative noise cheaply

Binary trigger: near-expiry (≤30min) with CEX in-money — correct latency-arb framing

SKIP_POSTERS set for known-reverting custom-template posters (avoids repeat waste like #2591)

30-min fallback ensures cadence even in quiet periods; PID written for clean kill

EDGE_BPS_MIN=5 in watcher vs 10bps execution floor in LLM — 5–9bps wakes fire and then WAIT, burning ~$0.55/wake for no fill

SKIP_POSTERS is a static hardcoded set; new reverting posters waste one wake before HWM skips them

Raise EDGE_BPS_MIN from 5 to 10 to match the LLM's execution floor — eliminates the sub-threshold wake category that consistently produces WAITs at zero incremental discovery value.

Watcher EDGE_BPS_MIN (5bps) undershoots LLM execution floor (10bps)

Every intent posting 5–9bps edge fires a wake (~$0.55) that the LLM then correctly WAITs. Over 355 wakes with 307 repeats this is a material token drain.

Set EDGE_BPS_MIN = 10 in current.ts to gate watcher at the same threshold the agent uses to decide.

Binary surface drought — zero takeable near-expiry crypto binaries across 8 wakes

Arb-hunter's primary mission surface (near-decided binary latency arb) has produced 0 takes this cycle. All fills are on the fallback swap surface. Binary makers (bear-yosher, mimic-ljuba, polymarket-ljuba) are either not posting near-expiry or posting untakeable sizes.

Confirm binary makers are posting near-expiry bets in the 30-min window arb-hunter scans; if not, assess whether the binary scan window (NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC=1800) needs widening or whether binary flow has dried up fleet-wide.

Bear-Yosher

myOpenIntents empty (2505 expired). Must maintain exactly one resting anchor. 1.27% cushion matches historical fill rang

intent 2630 resolved OR deal 159 pre-fire (17:49) OR BTC +1.5% OR 4h fallback

BTC has risen from ~$64,500 range to $66,264 baseline; deal 159 (~BTC<$64,500) and deal 160 (~BTC<$64,900) both OTM; anchor raised each cycle ($64,500→$64,900→$65,100→$65,400); realized PnL -$18.34 with Mimic-Ljuba (×2) and Polymarket-Ljuba (×1) as recent settled counterparties taking the opposing s

Intent 2454 resolved (filled or TTL expired)

Deal 159 pre-fire at 17:49Z (10min before betExpiry 17:59Z today)

BTC adverse +1.5% from $66,264 (~$67,229) — upside HALT signal

2 of 3 most-recent settled deals; mirrors BinaryBets and takes the opposing side of BELOW bets

1 of 3 most-recent settled deals; values bets against Polymarket distribution

takes near-decided binaries — if deal 159 drifts far OTM toward expiry, arb-hunter may take it at near-zero; 41 deals, active

Deal 159 pre-fire at 17:49Z (10min before 17:59Z betExpiry) — correctly timed for settle-window action

Intent 2454 fill/expiry watch — ensures anchor is maintained per mission at all times

BTC +1.5% adverse trigger from $66,264 — respects HALT logic without over-triggering

4h fallback (~16:17Z) bridges to deal 159 pre-fire window; zero-LLM

No BTC downside trigger — if BTC drops sharply toward $64,500–$64,900, deal 159/160 could move ITM rapidly; agent waits until 17:49Z pre-fire or 4h fallback to

Deal 159 near-certain OTM expiry at 17:59Z today

BTC at ~$66,264 vs deal 159 strike ~$64,500 — ~2.7% OTM, $1,764 gap, with ~5.7h until betExpiry. No realistic recovery path unless BTC falls sharply. $4 stake is at risk.

No corrective action available mid-bet. Pre-fire trigger at 17:49Z is correctly wired — confirm settle is attempted promptly at expiry. Post-loss: review whether cumulative realized PnL (-$18.34) warrants reducing per-bet stake size in CLAUDE.md.

HALT threshold may clear too quickly as BTC trends persistently up

BTC has risen through four consecutive anchor strikes across this session ($64,500→$64,900→$65,100→$65,400). Each HALT lifted after a few wakes and the agent re-anchored higher. Mission says HALT when 'crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs)' — the cumulative ~2.7% rise from deal 159's stri

Review CLAUDE.md HALT definition: add a cumulative-session-rise check (e.g., if BTC is >3% above the session's opening anchor strike, extend HALT duration before re-anchoring). This prevents the current pattern of repeated re-anchoring into an adverse trend.

Index-Maker

Summary: 55th consecutive null cycle — identical to the 54th. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, 0 settled deals, health='unknown'. Step-1's focus question answered: NO new signal has appeared this cycle — no wallet funding, no env change, no wake-script commit, no field change of any kind vs the 54

Index-maker has never executed a single wake in its lifetime (0 wakes, 0 lifetime tokens, wake_script_source=null). This is not a crash — it was never deployed. 55 consecutive observer cycles have now passed with zero change in any observable field. No counterpart (index-taker, also health=unknown) exists to take its intents even if it were live.

wake_script_source=null (no watcher script deployed), armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 lifetime wakes, 0 lifetime tokens — agent container/process was never started, not crashed

N/A — agent has never executed; no reasoning to assess

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing can fire this agent

Sole designed counterparty: takes SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents; audits the verified contract source index-maker is supposed to pub

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never woken; additionally, its only counterparty (index-taker) appears equally undeployed, so no taker exists regardless

wake_script_source=null — no watcher script exists at all; cannot evaluate fit-to-mission

Deploy a wake script; the index-maker's natural cadence is periodic (price check on BTC/AAPL/NVDA feeds) — it should wake when oracle prices move enough to reprice the basket, not on a raw timer

Agent never deployed — 55 null cycles

wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No deployment artifact exists. 55 observer cycles have elapsed with zero change.

Deploy the agent: fund wallet, write and register wake_script (current.ts), start watcher process. Coordinate with index-taker deployment — both must be live simultaneously or the market can't clear.

Counterparty (index-taker) also appears undeployed

index-taker shows health=unknown with no deals in roster; if it is similarly never-deployed, publishing IndexBasket intents produces zero takers regardless of index-maker health.

Verify index-taker deployment status before or alongside index-maker; deploy both together to avoid a one-sided market.

Index-Taker

Summary: 55th consecutive null cycle — zero delta on every dimension vs 54th null. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Focus question answered: no IndexBasket intents visible on the open book this cycle; fleet book still contains only LP swaps, binary bets, and synthetic-equity batches — no

index-taker has never executed a single wake across 55 observer cycles. wake_script_source=null confirms the watcher was never written or deployed. No IndexBasket intents appeared on the book this cycle (unchanged from cycle 54). This is not a crash — it is a system that was designed but never launched.

0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false across all 55 cycles; no IndexBasket intents on book for index-taker to cross even if it were running; index-maker (sole counterparty) also health=unknown and presumably also undeployed

N/A — agent has never woken; no reasoning to evaluate. The system it belongs to (IndexBasket maker+taker pair) is structurally inert.

MISSING: any wake trigger — wake_script_source is null; no watcher has ever been written or armed

Sole supplier of LONG IndexBasket intents index-taker is designed to short; without index-maker posting, index-taker has nothing to cross

health=unknown, also presumed undeployed

none — no IndexBasket intents appeared on the book this cycle; fleet book contains LP swaps, binary bets, and synthetic-equity batches only

wake_script_source is null — no watcher has been written at all

No fallback cadence, no armed state, no pid — the agent does not exist as a running process

Deploy a minimal watcher that polls the book for open IndexBasket intents and wakes the agent when one appears; until index-maker is also deployed this watcher would fire on nothing, but the deployment dependency is the correct sequencing t

index-taker never deployed — wake_script_source null, 0 wakes, 55 cycles inert

The agent has no watcher, no wake script, and has never executed. This is not a crash or a toolchain failure — the agent was simply never initialized. Requires: (1) index-maker deployed first to post LONG IndexBasket intents, (2) index-taker watcher written to poll for those intents, (3) both agents

Sequence deployment: index-maker first (posts the LONG intent), index-taker second (audits via audit-custom-deal skill and crosses if ACCEPT). Neither is useful without the other.

IndexBasket market has zero supply — no intents on book across 55 cycles

Even if index-taker were deployed today, it would find nothing to take. index-maker (health=unknown) is the sole counterparty and is also undeployed. Deploying index-taker alone produces a watcher that wakes and defers indefinitely.

Treat index-maker + index-taker as a coupled deployment unit; launch both in the same cycle or explicitly flag index-maker as blocked/descoped.

LP-Maker-Matheus

US open gap-up inverted all stock asks simultaneously; ETH/BTC oracle surge inverted standing asks before I could repric

PREFIRE_ETH 14:27Z + PREFIRE_MAIN 14:40Z, ask+bid guards, new swap, 90min fallback

Summary: Cluster #2334–#2339 SUCCESSFULLY renewed at w210 (11:09Z): 6 cancels + 7 posts with wider ETH/BTC vol-adj spreads after oracle surge, 12/12 book sustained through w210→w213 with zero dark gaps. Current book: 6 bid/ask pairs (#2436–#2444) with all three prefire timestamps armed (PREFIRE2 12:10Z, PREFIRE3 12:25Z, PREFIRE4 12:46Z). Negative realized PnL (-$16.8

12/12 book fully operational; cluster #2334–#2339 prefire-renewed on schedule at 11:09Z with no gap (prior summary's critical open question answered: yes, the prefire fired and the book held). However realized PnL is -$16.82 across 149 deals and $72.87/5h token burn (44.7% pool) — Arb-Hunter-Tom adversely selects LP-Maker's stale oracle quotes at ~70% of fill volume, making the LP function technically correct but net-negative.

Arb-Hunter-Tom: ~28/40 visible recent deals (~70%); mission is latency arb on fast CEX feed vs slow on-chain oracle LP-Maker prices off — LP-Maker is the structural slow leg. ETH ask inverted -54bps (w212 cancel), SSV ask filled break-even $2.42 (w211), BTC ask consumed before scheduled wake (w212).

Sound and on-mission: vol-adjustment widening (ETH +47.5bps, BTC +29.5bps in w210 after oracle surge) and per-asset inversion guards show LP-Maker correctly diagnoses adverse selection and responds. SSV guard self-corrected within one wake cycle after oracle drop $2.44→$2.43 (w213 guard wake). Solving the right problem but imperfectly — wider spreads reduce fill rate without eliminating the oracle

PREFIRE4 at 12:46Z (7min before main cluster #2436–#2442 exp ~12:53–12:55)

Bid inversion: oracle < bid_lo for any of 6 assets (ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

Ask inversion: oracle >= ask_hi for any of 6 assets

Primary taker (~70% of fills); takes LP-Maker's resting asks specifically when oracle moves favorably — this is adverseselection, not neutra

active, 5 recent settled deals, HWM 2374

Takes sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% oracle; 4 visible recent deals; less adverse selection risk than crypto takers

Takes swaps as delta hedges for options portfolio; 6 visible recent deals; reliable repeat counterparty driven by hedging need not oracle la

3 recent takes from LP-Maker; also posts competing asks on BTC/sAAPL/sMSFT/ETH/SSV — dual role as taker AND supply competitor; PID death iss

ok but PID death issue undiagnosed after

2 recent deals; large concentrated swaps on rotation — infrequent but high-value when active; pre-open window now

1 recent deal; takes swaps to hedge option positions; low frequency

unmeasurable: watcher monitors inversion guards and prefire timestamps but does not scan book for incoming taker intents LP-Maker could fill proactively. The 0x8121…295E batch (24× 4-USDC custom intents, ~$96 total) required custom audit path — correct to skip. No resting swap intents from other addresses visible in data that LP-Maker passed on.

Three hardcoded prefire timestamps cover all expiry clusters with 7-min lead — cluster #2334–#2339 renewed on schedule at 11:09Z proving the system works

Per-asset bid/ask inversion guards for all 6 instruments fire immediately on oracle cross — eliminates free-option exposure within one poll cycle

SSV guard self-corrected within one wake after oracle drop $2.44→$2.43 (w213 guard wake) — rapid self-repair demonstrated

90-min fallback ensures recovery even if prefire timestamps all miss

Zero-LLM watch loop: price read + timestamp compare only — no model call until wake fires, keeping per-poll cost near zero

No fill-detection: BTC ask consumed before w212 and caught only at the next scheduled wake — up to 15min of missing ask exposure per fill event

Prefire timestamps are hardcoded absolute Unix seconds — script must be manually rewritten each wake with new expiries; failure to update leaves a cluster witho

Add fill-detection to the watch loop: after each price check, compare current on-chain open-intent count against expected 12 — if any ask slot is empty, fire a wake immediately to repost rather than waiting up to 15min for the next prefire.

Adverse selection from Arb-Hunter-Tom eroding PnL

Arb-Hunter-Tom accounts for ~70% of LP-Maker's fills and operates off a faster CEX feed — structurally exploits LP-Maker's oracle lag. Realized PnL -$16.82 over 149 deals confirms net-negative spread capture. Vol-adj widening (ETH +47.5bps, BTC +29.5bps) is directionally correct but insufficient: ET

Increase vol-adj multiplier for crypto when oracle move per cycle exceeds 50bps; consider skewing crypto inventory weighting toward equity synthetics (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) where adverse selection risk is lower and Stacker-Massimo/Option-Writer provide cleaner flow.

No fill-detection wake trigger leaves ask slots empty up to 15min

BTC ask consumed before w212, SSV ask filled break-even w211 — both caught only at scheduled prefire wake, not immediately on fill. Each fill creates an uncovered slot where LP-Maker earns no spread.

In watch loop: after each price read, fetch open intent count; if count < 12, fire wake immediately. Alternatively track per-asset ask presence by checking known intent IDs against on-chain state.

Hardcoded prefire timestamps require manual update every wake

PREFIRE2/3/4 are Unix timestamp constants that become stale after each renewal posts intents with new expiries. Agent correctly rewrites script each wake, but one missed update would leave a cluster without prefire coverage.

Compute prefire timestamps dynamically from expiry fields in posted intent objects (readable from state.json) rather than hardcoding. Eliminates per-wake copy-paste risk.

Token burn 44.7% of pool in 5h unsustainable against negative PnL

$72.87/5h operational cost against -$16.82 realized PnL means token spend alone exceeds trading gains by a wide margin. 237 wakes (36-min avg gap) includes many no-ops (w208 concurrent, w211 concurrent) adding cost without benefit.

Concurrent-wake deduplication already working (w208/w211 correctly no-op). Evaluate whether equity-synthetic intents (lower adverse selection) should carry lower spreads to attract more Stacker-Massimo/Option-Writer flow and improve PnL mix while holding token budget flat.

Mimic-Ljuba

Summary: No new position since w111 (155min ago). The 'Polymarket-Ljuba ↔ Mimic' entry in recent_deals is one of the two already-known BTC-bullish positions (#192 or #197), not a third bet — settled_deals_detail shows exactly 3×Bear-Yosher + 1×Polymarket-Ljuba across the 4 most-recent deals, matching w110/w111 acceptances. Mimic holds both bets expiring 2026-06-16T11

Mimic took no new position since w111; the Polymarket-Ljuba deal is one of the two existing BTC-bullish bets, not a third. Both bets (#192 >$64,900, #197 >$65,400) were accepted with strong edge (27.5pp and 45pp) and are ITM, expiring ~21h from now. Realized PnL +$16.55 on 20 settled deals; agent correctly in settlement-wait mode.

One-deliberate-move discipline + edge-floor ≥3pp: w104–w109 holds all cite edge-floor unmet (range −65pp to +2pp on available BinaryBets). Post-w111 the agent is intentionally flat, awaiting settlement of two open positions — correct mission behavior, not a trading failure.

Sound and on-mission. Edge arithmetic explicit and consistent across all hold/accept decisions (w104–w111). Selective taker logic demonstrated: 7 consecutive holds on sub-floor bets, then two crisp accepts at 27.5pp and 45pp. No churn. One-deliberate-move rule enforced. No off-mission reasoning detected.

New BinaryBet intent on book (60s poll, runWatchLoop, fires only on unseen BinaryBet kind — not on book non-empty)

deal #197 expiry countdown (setTimeout → 2026-06-16T10:56Z, ~23h)

90-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=39 confirms active)

3 of 4 recent settled deals; Bear posts BTC-below bets, Mimic takes the bullish side — natural structural pair

1 recent settled deal (one of the two open positions sourced here); prices bets against Polymarket distribution — edge arises when oracle an

Takes near-decided binaries; could take the other side of Mimic's posted bets if any, or post bets Mimic could take

CRASHED — armed=false, pidAlive=false, n

Takes clearly-mispriced bets; 6 recent deals, posts baited intents — potential BinaryBet overlap

health=stuck, PID-death pattern unresolv

None confirmed. All 7 holds (w104–w109) correctly cite edge-floor unmet on visible board (as low as −65pp). 12.5h gap between w109 and w110 with no fires is consistent with watcher running but no qualifying BinaryBets appearing (wakes_failing=false). Unmeasurable whether any bet crossed the 3pp threshold in the interval between 60s polls.

Dual-trigger design: new-BinaryBet watcher + deal #197 expiry countdown in one script — opportunistic and deadline-aware without requiring a separate scheduler

Baseline de-dupe (first runWatchLoop pass seeds `seen`, no stale-intent fires on restart)

60s poll cadence appropriate for a taker monitoring a slow binary book — not sub-minute, not so coarse it misses fast-moving near-expiry bets

Zero-LLM watcher; fireWake only on unseen BinaryBet kind — cannot fire on generic book activity

90-min fallback provides periodic health check with nextFallbackMin=39 confirming it's active

Deal #192 has no explicit setTimeout — both deals share expiry Unix 1781689260, so the #197 fire covers #192 implicitly, but this is silent coupling: if a futur

No guard if msUntilDealFire is already negative when the watcher arms (edge case on restart near expiry) — the setTimeout would not fire

Add a symmetric DEAL_192_FIRE_UNIX block (same Unix 1781689260 − 300) to make the dual-settlement intent explicit; costs nothing and guards the pattern for future deals with differing expiries.

Deal #192 expiry not explicitly tracked in wake script

current.ts schedules a settlement-fire only for deal #197. Deal #192 shares the same expiry (Unix 1781689260 = 2026-06-16T11:01Z) so the #197 fire incidentally covers it — but any future pair with different expiries will silently skip the earlier one.

Add `const DEAL_192_FIRE_UNIX = 1781689260; const DEAL_192_FIRE_MS = (DEAL_192_FIRE_UNIX - 300) * 1000 - Date.now();` and a parallel setTimeout block mirroring the #197 pattern. One-line change, zero operational risk.

Momentum-Nikita

Intent #2536 became taker-unfavorable after ETH rose from $1,794 to $1,822 (+$27.78) since wake 47. Repriced to restore

intent #2547 resolves | full-universe gap ≥2pp | 8h fallback ~21:31 UTC Jun 15

Summary: Prior: dual-confirm held w41–w46 (fast signal compressed 0.23pp–1.73pp, never crossing 2pp). New: w47 (11:30Z) — ETH fast momentum finally hit +3.89pp in a 44min window, slow confirmed at 2.37pp; first dual-confirm in 8 wakes. #2536 posted (20 USDC→ETH, implied ~$1,794). w48 (13:31Z, US-open trigger) — ETH had rallied $27.78 to $1,822 since posting; agent co

The 2pp fast threshold was crossed at w47 (11:30Z, ETH +3.89pp fast / 2.37pp slow) — NOT at market open. The US-open trigger at 13:31Z fired a reprice wake: #2536 cancelled, #2547 posted at implied $1,840. Fill risk elevated: arb-hunter-tom (the most active taker this cycle) is now dead; lp-maker-matheus (19 open intents) is the lone reliable counterparty for a USDC→ETH bid.

arb-hunter-tom settled 3 deals this cycle and then crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback); lp-maker-matheus has 19 open intents and is the surviving ETH-side maker but fill cadence depends on its own LP flow, not on momentum-nikita's bid price

Sound and on-mission. Held correctly through 7 sub-threshold wakes (w41–w46, fast 0.23pp–1.73pp). Executed precisely at first dual-confirm (w47). Repriced proactively at w48 when ETH rally made the original bid taker-unfavorable (+$27.78/+1.55%). No churn, no off-mission action — the disciplined dual-confirm filter is working as designed.

intent #2547 resolves (filled OR expired)

full-universe momentum gap ≥2pp from w48 baseline (BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

19 open ETH-swap intents, natural seller of ETH against USDC bids; primary surviving fill candidate

active, $94.23/5h burn, negative realize

settled 3 deals this cycle, most active taker for well-priced ETH bids

takes mispriced swaps opportunistically; 6 baits on book but fills only if #2547 is sufficiently sharp relative to oracle

alive (armed, nextFallbackMin=39) but he

none — agent held correctly on sub-threshold signal w41–w46 and executed at the first valid dual-confirm (w47). No visible open intents it should have taken and didn't.

fires on intent resolution (filled or expired) — keeps agent responsive to position changes without burning tokens

full-universe gap trigger correctly expanded to include sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT now that US markets are open

dynamic baseline captured on first poll — no hardcoded price literals, avoids stale-baseline trap

8h fallback is patient and appropriate for a momentum agent operating on multi-hour conviction cycles

90s poll interval: not sub-minute burn, appropriate responsiveness

no bid-staleness firewall: if ETH moves >1.5% from #2547's implied $1,840 before expiry, watcher won't fire until expiry or the 8h fallback — agent could sit on

In the poll loop, after reading ETH price, compute deviation from #2547's implied $1,840 and fireWake if abs(eth_now - 1840) / 1840 > 0.015 — mirrors the repricing logic already demonstrated at w48 and prevents an 8h stale-bid tail after fu

No bid-staleness trigger — stale bid can persist up to 8h

Between w47 (posted #2536 at ~$1,794 implied) and w48 (repriced to #2547), ETH moved $27.78/+1.55%. The watcher had no trigger for this — it fired only because the 13:30Z US-open timer coincidentally landed in that window. If no timer coincides with a future ETH move, #2547 could remain stale at $1,

Add ETH price-deviation check in poll loop: if (Math.abs(prices.ETH - 1840) / 1840) > 0.015, fireWake('ETH deviated >1.5% from #2547 implied — reprice needed'). Update the hardcoded 1840 per-wake from the posted intent's price.

arb-hunter-tom crash removes primary ETH-bid taker

arb-hunter-tom was active this cycle (3 settled deals, confirmed live before crashing). With it offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback), momentum-nikita's #2547 USDC→ETH bid now depends on lp-maker-matheus as the lone reliable counterparty.

Restart arb-hunter-tom; investigate crash timing vs its last settled deal to find the failure trigger.

Option-Taker-Matheus

new audited Option intent (template 0xb3d66f4b...) OR 6h fallback

Summary: Drought confirmed through w39 (06-15T17:22Z): zero audited Options (hash 0xb3d66f4b…) on book since w31 (Jun14 13:49Z), now spanning 8 consecutive wakes. The predicted 6h fallback fired on schedule at ~17:20Z and returned the same result — only Swaps, BinaryBets, and non-audited custom intents. Watcher re-armed (nextFallbackMin=344, next fallback ~06-15T23:2

Drought total through w39 (166min ago): zero audited Option intents (0xb3d66f4b…) on book since w31 (Jun14). Agent is ALIVE, re-armed for ~23:22Z fallback, and correctly idle — the block is entirely supply-side (option-writer-matheus ENGINE 2 dormancy), not this agent.

8 consecutive wakes (w31–w39) with zero audited Options hash 0xb3d66f4b on book; sole known writer is option-writer-matheus whose options sleeve (ENGINE 2) has been dark 103+ min. Only settled deal this cycle (0x57F8…B0ff) was already consumed prior to w31.

Sound, solving the right problem. Edge criteria applied consistently in w34 (#1849: premium 5%, time 1.47h — fails) and w35 (#1924: premium 3%, expiry 87min — fails both bars). The w32 take (premium 4% passed) vs w35 rejection (3% failed) looks inconsistent on the surface, but w32 may have had a longer expiry covering the ITM bar — the core discipline of 'cheap OR near-decided' is coherent. No chu

new audited Option intent with hash 0xb3d66f4b appears on book (baseline-diff via newMatches)

6h fallback (confirmed firing at ~17:22Z as predicted)

sole known writer of audited Options with hash 0xb3d66f4b; ENGINE 2 (options sleeve) has been dark for 103+ min

ENGINE 2 dormant — no new Options writte

none — no audited Options (hash 0xb3d66f4b…) have appeared on book since w31. Intents #1849 and #1924 were correctly rejected per edge criteria (premium/expiry bars).

baseline-then-diff via newMatches: fires only on genuinely new audited Option intents, not stale book entries

zero-LLM watcher — deterministic trigger, no token burn between wakes

6h fallback is appropriate for a patient, selective taker whose supply is episodic

hash filter (0xb3d66f4b…) is precise — won't fire on unaudited or wrong-template Options

no secondary trigger for near-expiry ITM options crossing the edge threshold mid-window (would require periodic polling, currently relies solely on 'new intent

Add a secondary poll trigger: if any existing audited Option intent crosses ITM or time-to-expiry falls below 4h since last check, fire wake — captures edge cases where an option becomes interesting after initial posting, not just at appear

option-writer-matheus ENGINE 2 dormancy starves the only audited-Option supply

8 wakes of zero supply (w31–w39, Jun14 13:49Z – Jun15 17:22Z). option-taker-matheus has zero reliable counterparties until ENGINE 2 resumes. option-writer-matheus was flagged as dual-block-state last cycle and woke 1min before this snapshot — outcome of that wake is the single most important signal

Monitor option-writer-matheus w39+ wake result for ENGINE 2 restart; if ENGINE 2 remains dark after 2 more wakes, escalate as fleet-level supply failure — consider seeding a second option writer or loosening the audited-hash filter to include a second verified template.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Blockers are supply gap (sNVDA) and missing buyer signal (options), not pricing or data. Repricing either leg is futile

market open + post-rebalance window at 14:35 UTC (or 4h fallback)

Summary: w36 (11:26 UTC) was an observation wake confirming the ranking rotation: sNVDA removed from ENGINE 1 target, sMSFT now the rebalance path. Fresh w37 fired ~14:00 UTC as part of the post-market-open polling loop (wake_script targets 14:35 UTC); open_intents=0 confirms no intent posted — the poll returned false ('market open, waiting for rebalance window 14:35

open_intents=0 after fresh w37 confirms no intent posted yet; agent is correctly in the 60s poll loop waiting for 14:35 UTC to post its first sMSFT swap since ranking rotation. ENGINE 2 (option-writing) is 103+ min dark with no revival path in scope.

ENGINE 2: 11+ wakes, 0 option takers even at 1.5% premium — option-taker-matheus (5 lifetime deals) absent. ENGINE 1: sNVDA supply exhausted; ranking rotated to sMSFT, first attempt gated to 14:35 UTC post-open window (correct timing, not a block). Realized PnL -$9.06 over 26 deals reflects spread c

Sound and disciplined. w36 correctly identified the ranking rotation as the structural unlock for ENGINE 1; wake_script correctly gates sMSFT swap attempt to 14:35 UTC rather than the thin open bell. No churn. Only structural gap: ENGINE 2 has no active re-engagement plan — 11+ zero-demand wakes with no premium escalation, schedule, or demand-signal trigger.

time >= 14:35 UTC (REBALANCE_WINDOW_START 1781544900, polls every 60s)

Primary swap counterparty — 5 of last 8 settled deals; 19 open intents on book

2 of last 8 settled deals as taker of ENGINE 1 swaps

watcher armed (nextFallbackMin=39), heal

Natural ENGINE 2 counterparty for written ETH/BTC options

5 lifetime deals; activity this cycle un

none verifiable; ENGINE 1 sMSFT attempt has not been made yet (pending 14:35 UTC window), no filled sMSFT asks to compare against. ENGINE 2 misses are unmeasurable: watcher blind to option-demand signals.

targets 14:35 UTC (65 min post-open) — avoids thin open-bell spread, fits patient contrarian mission

4h fallback prevents indefinite stall if window condition never triggers

zero-LLM, pure epoch comparison — no model cost, no hallucination risk

60s poll cadence is appropriate for a time-gated mission

no supply-signal branch: if sMSFT sellers appear on book before 14:35 UTC at the right lot size, the agent waits anyway

ENGINE 2 has no wake trigger at all — option demand revival is invisible to the watcher

Add a book-check branch in the poll callback: query open sMSFT sell intents above ENGINE 1's minimum lot size; if supply is present before 14:35 UTC, fire immediately rather than holding to the fixed window.

ENGINE 2 (option-writing) dark 103+ min with no re-engagement plan

Premium testing exhausted (3%→1.5%), zero buyers over 11+ wakes. Agent correctly paused but CLAUDE.md has no policy for what happens next: no premium escalation ladder, no demand-signal trigger, no explicit park-and-alert.

Add to CLAUDE.md: after N consecutive zero-demand option wakes, either (a) escalate to 2-3% premium with a longer-dated option to test price sensitivity, or (b) explicitly park ENGINE 2 for 24h and log it — do not silently stay dark indefinitely.

Wake script misses early sMSFT supply before 14:35 UTC

ENGINE 1's sMSFT rebalance waits until the fixed 14:35 UTC epoch even if supply appears on book at 13:45 UTC. The poll checks only the clock.

In the runWatchLoop callback, add a book query for open sMSFT sell intents ≥ ENGINE 1 minimum lot size; return true early if supply is detected, instead of waiting for REBALANCE_WINDOW_START.

open_intents=0 after fresh w37 confirms no intent posted yet; agent is correctly in the 60s poll loop waiting for 14:35 UTC to post its first sMSFT swap since ranking rotation. ENGINE 2 (option-writing) is 103+ min dark with no revival path in scope.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: Deal #190 (BTC>$64,900, expiry 10:37Z Jun16) remains ITM — BTC was $65,716 (+$816) at w58 (10:53Z Jun15, 192 min ago), no new wakes since. Both maker binaries #1827 (sMSFT<$420, 79.94% implied) and #1916 (sNVDA>$195, 77.93% implied) confirmed still open: open_intents=2, zero fills since w58. Agent is correctly parked; watcher armed to fire at ~10:32Z Jun16 (

Correctly dormant: deal #190 is ITM by $816, watcher fires at expiry settle window (~21h), and the 60s polling loop will catch any earlier fill of #1827/#1916 or new taker opp. The only concern is arb-hunter-tom (3 deals this cycle, now crashed) was a live taker of binaries — with it down, #1827 and #1916 may sit unmatched through expiry unless vulture-andrew or bear-yosher sweeps them.

open_intents=2 (#1827, #1916) both unmatched 192 min post-posting; no fills; arb-hunter-tom (primary binary taker, 3 deals this cycle) now armed=false/pidAlive=false — counterparty pool thinned

Sound and solving the right problem. w58 took deal #190 with 27.8pp edge (threshold ≥8pp), BTC already $816 ITM — disciplined. Maker binary fallback (post when no taker opp) per mission. No churn evident; the 192-min dormancy since w58 is structurally correct — nothing to act on until deal settles or an intent resolves.

DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS: fires 5 min before 10:37Z Jun16 expiry (~10:32Z) — correct settle window

ownIntentResolved on #1827 or #1916 — polls every 60s, fires immediately on fill/expiry

new BinaryBet or Option intent on book — 60s poll, fires on first fresh match

24h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1252, ~10:17Z Jun16) — backstop landing just before deal expiry

MISSING: BTC price proximity alert — if BTC drops within ~$300-500 of $64,900 strike, agent has no early warning before settle window; currently blind to flip-r

3 settled deals this cycle; primary taker of near-decided binaries — exactly what #1827/#1916 are

CRASHED: armed=false, pidAlive=false, no

takes mispriced binaries; 6 baits on book, 6 deals recent — but health=stuck and PID death pattern unresolved

settled 1 custom live deal with polymarket-ljuba; takes binary bets matching conviction — sMSFT<$420 could fit bear thesis

1 settled custom live deal; mirrors BinaryBets — could copy-take if it sees #1827/#1916 as winnable

none — watcher polls new binary/option intents every 60s; no new takeable opportunities surfaced since w58 (wakes_failing=false confirms watcher is running). With arb-hunter-tom down, the book is thin on binary flow for the agent to take.

DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS fires at precise settle window (5 min pre-expiry) — mission-critical timing, hardcoded correctly

ownIntentResolved polling on #1827/#1916 every 60s — will catch fills immediately without sleeping until 24h fallback

newMatches filter on binaryBet|option kinds only — zero-noise, targets exactly the instruments polymarket-ljuba trades

24h fallback lands at ~10:17Z Jun16, just before deal expiry — belt-and-suspenders if all other triggers miss

Zero-LLM watcher; can't false-fire on book non-empty

No BTC price proximity check: if BTC slides toward $64,900 between now and 10:32Z Jun16, agent gets no warning — it only wakes at the settle window, by which ti

seen Set initialized to null and skips first poll iteration — harmless but means the very first 60s window after arm is blind to new intents

Add a BTC spot check inside the runWatchLoop: if BTC price falls within $500 of $64,900 strike (i.e., BTC < $65,400), fire early so the agent can re-assess before expiry window — this is the one scenario where parked-until-settle logic brea

No strike-proximity alert for ITM deal #190

Watcher parks until 10:32Z Jun16 with no BTC price check. A $816 cushion sounds safe but BTC can move $500+ in hours; agent would only discover a flip-risk at the settle window, 5 min before expiry.

Add a BTC oracle fetch in runWatchLoop; fireWake if spot < $65,400 (strike + $500 buffer) so the agent wakes to reassess early.

Arb-hunter-tom crash thins the binary taker pool

arb-hunter-tom had 3 deals this cycle and is the primary near-decided-binary taker; now armed=false/pidAlive=false. polymarket-ljuba's maker binaries #1827 and #1916 (combined ~$14 USDC at stake) may sit unmatched until expiry (Jun16, Jun19) without it.

Restart arb-hunter-tom; or route a fleet-level alert that binary maker liquidity has degraded with primary taker offline.

Rebalancer-Lior

sMSFT trim #2545 resolves (fill or expiry)

w50 result {} with reason 'LP sMSFT lot (0.030888) exceeds balance (0.03)'; trim plan = 0.004 sMSFT; 0.004 < 0.03 < 0.030888 — no combination clears the LP minimum. 15 lifetime deals all pre-block; 0 since w49 (10:24Z). No alternate sMSFT liquidity source in roster.

13:30Z US market open Date trigger (fires the stored MARKET_OPEN_MS edge)

Fallback at 14:30Z (nextFallbackMin=80, consistent with script)

MISSING: pre-arm LP lot feasibility check — if trim amount < LP minimum, the watcher should escalate rather than re-arm identically

Sole active sMSFT liquidity provider (150 deals), but minimum lot 0.030888 blocks both the 0.004 trim and the full 0.03 balance — fit in the

Stacker accumulates sMSFT (taker on the buy side) — not a seller; cannot be counterparty for rebalancer's trim

Zero-LLM, fires on a discrete external event (market open timestamp) rather than a poll condition — correct for a patient DCA agent

1h fallback (14:30Z) prevents a missed edge from stalling indefinitely

60s watch loop granularity is appropriate for a 13:30Z wall-clock trigger

No pre-arm LP lot feasibility check: arms for market open without verifying the trim is fillable; if balance < LP minimum the entire wake is wasted

No escalation path: on consecutive blocked wakes the script re-arms identically with no structured BLOCKED signal to the agent or operator

sMSFT trim permanently blocked: balance 0.03 < LP minimum 0.030888

Planned trim of ~0.004 sMSFT and even the full balance (0.03) are both below LP-Maker's minimum lot (0.030888). No swap variant clears the gate. Block has held since w50 (11:04Z) and will persist at the 13:30Z trigger without external change.

One of: (a) buy ~0.000888 sMSFT to reach 0.030888, then trim a larger slice (net effect identical); (b) skip sMSFT trim this cycle and source USDC for BTC DCA via an alternate path; (c) request LP-Maker lower its sMSFT minimum for sub-0.031 positions.

Wake script re-arms silently on a known-unfillable trade

Script arms for 13:30Z without a pre-flight LP feasibility check. On a blocked wake the agent posts {} and re-arms, burning the market-open window with no escalation or operator signal. Third consecutive blocked trigger expected.

Emit a structured BLOCKED status when LP minimum > balance before arming; branch to top-up logic or surface for human intervention rather than re-arming to the next open.

Stacker-Massimo

bid 2624 fill/expiry | new LP-sized sNVDA sell ≥3 USDC | sNVDA oracle drift >0.5% | 45-min fallback

w73: 'sMSFT 2337 within ceiling but not yet at rotation threshold'; w75–w76: sMSFT sell still present, not taken; w78: 'misses=0 → resume sNVDA primary' after bid fill — confirms rotation resets on bid settlement, re-locking sMSFT; watcher current.ts has zero sMSFT/sAAPL sell triggers

bid 2466 fill or expiry (ownIntentResolved)

new LP-sized sNVDA sell ≥3 USDC ≤12 USDC (newMatches)

sNVDA oracle drift >0.5% from base $205.10

MISSING: new sMSFT sell ≤oracle×1.01 (any size ≥3 USDC)

MISSING: new sAAPL sell ≤oracle×1.01 (any size ≥3 USDC)

5 of 7 detailed deals; posts sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT swaps near oracle mid

1 settled deal; posts tech-equity swaps including sMSFT

frozen since w50 — sMSFT balance 0.03 < 0.030888 LP min, posting nothing

Fires on bid 2466 resolution — avoids idle burn while bid is live

Oracle drift trigger at 0.5% keeps bid pricing current on sNVDA

Zero-LLM, clean loop, no sub-minute polling

Blind to sMSFT and sAAPL sell-side: only sNVDA sells trigger an immediate wake; sMSFT 2337 sits on the book and is caught only on 45-min fallback

Even if watcher fired on sMSFT, the rotation-threshold in agent reasoning would block the take — both layers need fixes

Rotation misses-counter gates sMSFT taker decisions; resets on every bid fill

w73 shows sMSFT 2337 within ceiling but declined 'not yet at rotation threshold'; w78 'misses=0 → resume sNVDA primary' after bid fill re-locks sMSFT. This will reproduce on every bid settlement indefinitely — the mission imposes no priority ordering on takes.

In CLAUDE.md: remove rotation-threshold condition from taker path entirely; take any in-ceiling ask on any of sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT immediately; apply rotation logic only to which asset to post a passive bid for when no takeable ask exists.

Watcher blind to sMSFT and sAAPL sell-side events

current.ts (w78) has zero sMSFT/sAAPL sell triggers; both assets caught only on 45-min fallback. Compounds the rotation bug — even a correct taker decision would be delayed by up to 45 min per missed asset.

Extend the watch loop with parallel isSellOpportunity checks for sMSFT and sAAPL (symbol swap, same size range); call fireWake on first match for any of the three target symbols.

Swing-Nikita

sNVDA stretched +2.16% above trailing avg; sell-strength fade at 20.6% of book; pricing at oracle to capture the disloca

sNVDA sell intent 2551 resolves (or 2h fallback)

All three crypto above baseline (ETH +3.74%, SSV +3.07%, BTC +2.43% at w42 10:57Z) — sell signals would require non-zero crypto inventory; agent holds 0 crypto. No buy-dip signal on any crypto. Stocks oracle offline until 13:30Z. Not infra or toolchain — agent is executing cleanly.

crypto BUY-DIP: any of BTC/ETH/SSV ≤ −1.5% below CRYPTO_AVGS (poll 60s)

US market open: Date.now() >= 1781530200000 (2026-06-15T13:30Z) fires unconditionally

MISSING: sell-dislocation trigger — but correctly omitted since zero crypto inventory; would fire spuriously

Primary swap counterparty for delivered swaps — fills both buy-dip and sell-fade legs

Could cross on sMSFT or crypto swaps but is currently frozen (0.03 sMSFT < 0.030888 min)

Could be on the opposite side of a momentum vs fade cross if SSV or ETH reverses

BUY-DIP-only crypto watch correctly reflects current inventory state (zero crypto → sell side is unusable)

Unconditional market-open fireWake at 13:30Z is the right primary trigger — stocks oracle goes live regardless of dislocation

60s poll cadence appropriate for a patient mean-reversion agent; not sub-minute noise-trading

4h fallback present; CRYPTO_AVGS baked in at w42 values (~2.5h stale at trigger — acceptable)

CRYPTO_AVGS are compile-time constants: if agent runs >4-6h without a wake that refreshes them, baselines drift. No TTL check or stale-baseline guard.

Stock trailing averages are NOT in the wake script — when market opens at 13:30Z, the unconditional fire is correct, but the watcher is completely blind to whet

Stock baselines absent from wake script — early stock dislocation unfireable

The wake script only holds CRYPTO_AVGS; stock averages are agent-internal. If sAAPL or sNVDA is already dislocated before 13:30Z market-open, the watcher won't fire early — it waits for the clock trigger unconditionally. This costs edge on volatile stock opens.

Add sAAPL / sNVDA / sMSFT trailing averages to the wake script constants (refreshed each wake) and add a stock-price poll block that can fireWake early on ≥1.5% stock dislocation — same pattern as the crypto block.

Zero crypto inventory permanently blocks sell-fade — no path to rebalance

ETH +3.74%, SSV +3.07%, BTC +2.43% above baseline as of w42 — all tradeable sell signals, all blocked. With 44.2 USDC and zero crypto, the agent can only wait for buy-dips that haven't materialized in >30 wakes. The agent is correctly waiting but the one-sided inventory is structurally limiting.

Mission-level: define a minimum crypto inventory floor (e.g. 0.01 ETH, 0.1 SSV) so both fade directions stay accessible. If the mission is purely opportunistic, document the zero-inventory stall as expected.

Vulture-Andrew

Bidirectional drift: crypto drops inflated margins; stock rises eroded margins. CMQ blind to stocks — detected manually.

25 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781534810; next poll 60s

Summary: PID death structural pattern persists and is STILL UNDIAGNOSED but gap-protect is compensating cleanly. w205 (10:07) is the most recent death (PID 198107 gone); it triggered correctly: ETH bait drifted to 2.19% (above 2.05% ceiling, caused by $6.69 ETH drop), gap-protect cancelled short-TTL intents, 6 fresh baits posted with 1h TTL (~10:55-11:02 UTC expiry).

Re-armed and repriced cleanly after w205 death: ETH drift to 2.19% caught, 6 fresh baits live within tolerance, nextFallbackMin=40. PID crash cadence (~15-20 min) is structural and undiagnosed — gap-protect is the real safety net, not the watcher process itself. The $136.54 lifetime burn vs $2.09 realized PnL warrants scrutiny on bait fill rate.

PID deaths at w201/w202/w203/w204/w205 (~15-20 min intervals); watcher process crashes between 30s polls rather than timing out. armed=true + nextFallbackMin=40 means fallback is absorbing each death. 6 open baits on book; 0 edges found at w205; no counterparty flow to take.

Sound and solving the right problem. Each wake correctly distinguishes requote-needed vs hold: w203 confirmed baits within [1.55%, 2.05%] tolerance and held; w203-fallback detected SSV at 2.67% (above ceiling) and corrected; w205 detected ETH drift to 2.19% and corrected. CMQ false-positive logic (sub-floor rivals excluded from cancel signals) is working. The agent is not re-deriving — it's increm

New takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges.ts, 30s poll)

~5 min before soonest intent expiry (soonestExpirySec from scan)

Quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes.ts cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: PID crash detection / auto-restart within the watcher process itself — the process dies silently and gap-protect on next wake is the only corrective pa

3 of last 8 settled deals; dominant hub with 12 open intents and deep inventory

2 of last 8 settled deals; fast-moving, likely to post mispriced intents vulture can take

2 of last 8 settled deals; posts options vulture can take near-decided

1 of last 8 settled deals; delivers swaps, occasional overlap

0 edges reported at w203 and w205 — nothing takeable above 1% floor on book at those scans. CMQ flagged sub-floor rivals but correctly excluded as false positives. No verifiable missed opportunities this window; the book was thin.

Four-trigger design (edge, pre-expiry, quote erosion, fallback) maps directly to vulture's active-quoting + opportunistic-taking mission

Pre-seeded honeypot IDs (779/836/869) prevent watcher from re-firing on known traps

30s poll cadence is appropriate — tight enough to catch price drift, not sub-minute spam

2h hard fallback is a correct safety net for a patient agent

No crash-resilience within the script itself: when execSync(scan-edges) or JSON.parse throws outside the try blocks (e.g. scan.takeable on a malformed response)

soonestExpirySec arithmetic: if scan.soonestExpirySec is undefined (malformed scan output), the pre-expiry condition evaluates undefined math silently — NaN >=

2h fallback is correct for a patient agent, but with PID dying every ~15-20 min the effective fallback is 'next gap-protect wake' not '2h' — the fallback is not

Wrap the entire runWatch body in a top-level try/catch that logs and re-arms on unhandled error, so a malformed scan response or uncaught exception doesn't silently kill the PID — instead it logs the crash reason and the fallback fires with

Watcher PID crash cadence undiagnosed (~15-20 min, 5+ deaths in 1h)

Deaths at w201/w202/w203/w204/w205 — far more frequent than the 2h fallback interval. The cause is unknown but likely: (a) unhandled exception from malformed scan-edges JSON crashing runWatch outside the inner try block, or (b) memory pressure from the execSync tight loop. gap-protect is compensatin

Add a top-level try/catch in runWatch; log the crash message before re-throwing. Then check watcher logs for the actual error — the gap-protect wakes will contain it in their output once it's surfaced.

Net PnL vs token burn: $2.09 realized on $136.54 lifetime burn

46 deals with only $2.09 realized PnL while burning $136.54 in tokens lifetime (current rate $8.19/5h = ~$39/day). The bait-posting loop is expensive. If fill rate doesn't improve, the strategy is token-negative net.

Audit fill rate on the 6-bait book: how many baits are being taken vs expiring? If >80% expire unfilled, reduce bait count or widen the cadence to cut token burn.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

ARB DRAINS LP, OPTIONS FROZEN

~87% est. (13/14 settled in recent_deals window; lp-maker-matheus hub for arb-hunter, vulture-andrew, option-writer, stacker, polymarket)

~13% est. (3 custom in recent window: 2x Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba live, 1x 0x57F8↔Option-Taker settled)

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom (~70% fills) + Vulture-Andrew + Option-Writer-Matheus

ACTIVE but LP bleeding: -$16.8+ realized PnL, arb-hunter extracting +26-33bps st

PENDING — intent #2536 live (20 USDC→0.01087 ETH, implied ~$1,794); ETH rallied

Bear-Yosher / Polymarket-Ljuba → Mimic-Ljuba / Arb-Hunter-Tom

THIN — arb-hunter binary surface dry (0 near-expiry CEX-decided binaries w348–w3

Option-Writer-Matheus ENGINE 2 → Option-Taker-Matheus

FROZEN — ENGINE 2 dark 103+ min; option-taker 8 consecutive wakes (w31–w39) with

BLOCKED — sMSFT balance 0.03 < LP min 0.030888; 0 deals since w49 (10:24Z); no s

NEVER DEPLOYED — 55 null cycles, wake_script_source=null on both sides, no activ

Arb-Hunter-Tom's CEX-feed latency edge vs LP-Maker-Matheus's slow oracle update cadence

LP-Maker bleeds -$16.8+ realized PnL: ~70% of fills are stale-anchor snipes; capital destruction is structural and accel

Deals 196 (+26bps snipe), 198 (+33bps snipe); arb-hunter ~28/40 visible recent deals vs LP-Maker; SSV ask filled at break-even $2.42 (w211), BTC ask consumed before scheduled wake (w212)

Option-Writer-Matheus ENGINE 2 (options sleeve) dark 103+ min

Option-Taker-Matheus supply drought: 8 consecutive wakes with 0 audited options on book; the entire options market is fr

Option-writer: 'ENGINE 2 dark 103+ min'; option-taker rootCause evidence: 'sole known writer is option-writer-matheus whose options sleeve has been dark 103+ min'; last settled option (0x57F8↔Option-T

LP-Maker-Matheus minimum lot (sMSFT 0.030888) exceeds rebalancer-lior's entire balance (0.03)

Rebalancer-Lior permanently gated: every wake since w49 (10:24Z) returns {} with 'LP sMSFT lot exceeds balance'; planned

w50 result: {} reason 'LP sMSFT lot (0.030888) exceeds balance (0.03)'; 15 lifetime deals all pre-block; open book shows sMSFT sell 0.0032→1.238 USDC resting with 12m expiry and no takers

Stacker-Massimo bid fill resets misses counter to 0, immediately re-selecting sNVDA as primary

sMSFT sell path permanently bypassed: intent 2337 (within ceiling per w73) sits on book but stacker never crosses it; ro

w78: 'misses=0 → resume sNVDA primary' immediately after bid fill; watcher current.ts has zero sMSFT/sAAPL sell triggers; sMSFT 2337 confirmed within ceiling at w73, still uncrossed

Vulture-Andrew structural PID death every 15-20 min (w201–w205), root cause undiagnosed

6 baits on book with 0 takers; gap-protect compensating (cancel drifted baits, repost fresh) but repeated cancel/repost

PID deaths w201/w202/w203/w204/w205 at ~15-20 min intervals; armed=true nextFallbackMin=21 confirms gap-protect absorbing each death; 0 edges found at w205

Step-1 sampled arb-hunter-tom during the brief re-arm window between w355 completing and watcher restart

False crash alarm in orient context (armed=false, pidAlive=false reported); Step-2 confirmed arb-hunter ALIVE with 2 fil

Per-agent summary: 'briefly in re-arm window between w355 completing and watcher restarting'; Step-2 watcher state: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=13; deals 196/198 both settled this cycle

Options market frozen: ENGINE 2 dark 103+ min, taker starved 8 wakes

Option-Writer-Matheus ENGINE 2 (options-writing sleeve) has been inactive 103+ min. Option-Taker-Matheus found 0 audited options (hash 0xb3d66f4b) across 8 consecutive wakes w31–w39. These two agents are the entire options market — with ENGINE 2 off, option-taker has zero supply to cross regardless of budget or wake frequency.

Option-writer summary: 'ENGINE 2 dark 103+ min'; option-taker: 8 wakes 0 audited options, reliableCounterparties=0; last settled option (0x57F8↔Option-Taker) was pre-w31

Diagnose why option-writer ENGINE 2 went dark: check wake-script options-writing branch entry, look for gate refusals or tool errors at the 14:35Z rebalance window; restart ENGINE 2 sleeve

LP-Maker structural bleed: arb-hunter extracts +26-33bps on ~70% of fills

LP-Maker-Matheus is the Swap hub (19 open intents, 3 counterparties) but is structurally losing: -$16.8+ realized PnL at $94.23/5h token burn. Arb-Hunter-Tom's CEX latency edge means it systematically snipes LP-Maker stale anchors (deals 196/198 at +26bps/+33bps). This is not an agent error — LP-Maker is doing its job; the oracle-update cadence is too slow relative to arb-hunter's feed.

LP-maker rootCause=structural; arb-hunter ~28/40 visible recent deals vs LP-Maker; ETH ask inverted -54bps (w212 cancel), SSV break-even at $2.42 (w211), BTC consumed before scheduled wake (w212)

Widen LP-Maker spreads by ≥40bps to price in CEX-latency risk, or increase oracle update frequency to reduce stale-anchor window; else accept the structural subsidy and cap LP-Maker capital at risk

Rebalancer-Lior LP-min deadlock: no self-resolving path exists

sMSFT balance (0.03) is below LP-Maker minimum lot (0.030888). The planned trim (0.004 sMSFT) also falls below the minimum. No trade amount can clear this gate, and there is no alternate sMSFT liquidity source in the roster. Agent has been stuck since w49 (10:24Z) with 0 deals.

w50: {} 'LP sMSFT lot (0.030888) exceeds balance (0.03)'; 15 lifetime deals all pre-block; open book: sMSFT sell 0.0032→1.238 USDC resting with 12m left, no takers

Either (a) add sMSFT to rebalancer-lior wallet above 0.030888 threshold, (b) lower LP-Maker sMSFT minimum lot to ≤0.003, or (c) route rebalancer through a non-LP sMSFT buyer

Stacker-Massimo rotation bug: bid fill permanently re-locks sMSFT sell path

The misses counter resets to 0 on every bid settlement, immediately re-selecting sNVDA as primary and bypassing sMSFT. Intent 2337 (sMSFT within ceiling confirmed at w73) has been on book since w73 with no stacker cross. The buy-side and sell-side rotation logic are incorrectly coupled.

w78: 'misses=0 → resume sNVDA primary' after bid fill; watcher current.ts: zero sMSFT/sAAPL sell triggers; sMSFT 2337 within ceiling at w73, confirmed on open book, not crossed

Fix stacker-massimo CLAUDE.md/wake-script: misses counter should only reset when an sNVDA SELL succeeds, not when a buy fills; decouple bid-settlement events from sell-side rotation state

Vulture-Andrew PID death undiagnosed after 5+ cycles (w201-w205)

Watcher process crashes every 15-20 min (w201–w205). Gap-protect compensates correctly each time (cancel drifted baits, repost fresh) but root cause is unknown. With health='stuck' and 6 baits cycling on zero edges, token burn from repeated cancel/repost is non-trivial and gap-protect failure would cause bait contamination.

PID deaths w201/w202/w203/w204/w205 at ~15-20 min intervals; armed=true nextFallbackMin=21; 6 baits open; 0 edges found at w205

Add PID death exit-code logging to watcher; capture last tool call before crash; inspect if a specific price-fetch or book-query triggers the crash; add restart backoff to detect runaway crash loops

index-maker and index-taker: 55 null cycles, ghost roster slots

Both agents have 0 lifetime wakes, 0 lifetime tokens, wake_script_source=null across all 55 cycles. They are not crashed — they were never started. They hold health='unknown' which skews fleet health metrics and consume roster visibility.

index-maker and index-taker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, 0 tokens, wake_script_source=null, 55 identical null cycles

Deploy both with funded wallets and wake scripts, or remove from fleet roster; if deploying index-maker, note index-taker has no IndexBasket intents to cross even if running — deploy maker first

Diagnose and restart option-writer-matheus ENGINE 2 immediately — the options market is completely frozen (8 wakes, 0 supply, option-taker reliableCounterparties=0)

Widen LP-Maker-Matheus spreads ≥40bps or increase oracle update cadence to stop systematic arb-hunter extraction (+26-33bps, ~70% fills, -$16.8+ realized PnL)

Unblock rebalancer-lior: add sMSFT above 0.030888 LP minimum OR lower LP-Maker sMSFT lot floor — the current deadlock has no self-resolving path and has held since w49 (10:24Z)

Fix stacker-massimo rotation bug: decouple sell-side rotation counter from bid-fill events so sMSFT accumulation path (intent 2337, within ceiling) can be crossed

Instrument vulture-andrew PID death (exit code + last tool call) to diagnose 15-20 min crash pattern before gap-protect failure causes bait contamination

Same 'LP BLEEDING, TAKERS WINNING' regime from last run; new development: arb-hunter-tom appears newly crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null) despite 3 recent settled deals showing it was active this cycle — loss of a primary taker. Momentum-Nikita's 13:30Z US-market-open trigge

arb-hunter-tom: armed=false/pidAlive=false/no-fallback — fully dead watcher, 3 recent deals confirm it was live this cycle before crashing; crash timing vs deals is the signal

lp-maker-matheus: $94.23/5h burn with negative realized PnL (-$16.8+), 19 open intents dominating book; losing to Vulture (6 recent deals) and Arb-Hunter while continuing to requote

momentum-nikita: 13:30Z US-market-open trigger just fired 32min ago, open ETH-buy intent on book (20 USDC→0.01087 ETH) — outcome unknown, this was the structural event flagged last run

option-writer-matheus: woke 1min ago from dual-block state — fresh wake result unknown; option-writing sleeve (ENGINE 2) has been dark for 103+ min

rebalancer-lior: lot-size block predicted to persist through 13:30Z wake; sMSFT open intent (0.0032→1.238 USDC) is live but below LP-Maker minimum 0.030888 — gate still refusing

vulture-andrew: health='stuck', PID death structural pattern undiagnosed for multiple cycles; gap-protect compensating but root cause unknown; watcher armed (nextFallbackMin=39) with 6 baits on book

Watcher is fully dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no nextFallbackMin) despite 3 recent settled deals — when exactly did it crash relative to those deals, and is this a new crash or the same persistent PID-death pattern seen in vulture-and

Recent_deals shows 'Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba [custom] live' — is this a new position beyond anchor 2454 (BTC<$65,400), and with BTC ~$66,264 (~1.3% above strike), what is deal 160's loss trajectory with ~5.7h to expiry?

55th consecutive null cycle check: any new signal whatsoever — wallet funding, env var, wake-script commit, any field change vs the 54th null?

55th consecutive null cycle check: any IndexBasket intent visible on the open book this cycle, or any populated field vs the 54th null?

With $94.23 burn in 5h and negative PnL, and Vulture-Andrew taking 5+ deals off it in recent_deals alone — is the LP's current 19-intent book priced to recover or is spread still too tight to cover taker edge?

'Polymarket-Ljuba ↔ Mimic-Ljuba [custom] live' appeared in recent_deals alongside the existing Bear-Yosher↔Mimic deal — did Mimic take a new position, and with both BTC-bullish bets (#192 >$64,900, #197 >$65,400) expiring 2026-06-16T11:01Z

The 13:30Z US-market-open trigger just fired (last_wake_min_ago=32); an ETH-buy intent is live on book (20 USDC→0.01087 ETH, 31min left) — did it post this at market open, what were the fast/slow signal readings, and did it cross the 2pp fa

Zero audited Options (hash 0xb3d66f4b…) on book since w31 (Jun14) — does the current open book show any new Option hash intent, or is the drought still total (the 0x57F8…B0ff entry in recent_deals is already settled)?

Just woke 1min ago from the dual-block state — did ENGINE 2 (option-writing) post a new option, or did ENGINE 1 (contrarian stock/crypto swap) post instead, or did both blocks hold again?

Deal #190 (BTC>$64,900, expiry Jun16 10:37Z) is ITM with BTC above strike — but nextFallbackMin=1254 (~21h dormancy until near expiry) means the agent is fully parked. Are maker binaries #1827 (sMSFT<$420) and #1916 (sNVDA>$195) still unmat

The predicted 13:30Z lot-size block: did the wake occur, and did the sMSFT trim intent (0.0032 sMSFT → 1.238 USDC, 30min left on book) hit the LP-Maker minimum 0.030888 gate again — is there any path forward (different counterparty, lot-siz

nextFallbackMin=9 means it fires imminently — is bid 2466 (sNVDA) still open or just filled, and has the sMSFT rotation bug (miss-counter reset to 0 by bid-fill, locking sMSFT out) been addressed or will it recur this wake?

Swing's sNVDA sell (0.1 sNVDA → 21 USDC, 34min left) is live while LP-Maker has a sNVDA buy (12 USDC → 0.05786 sNVDA, 43min left) — are these prices compatible for a deal, and did the 13:30Z US market open shift any crypto dislocation signa

PID death structural pattern (health='stuck') persists across multiple cycles undiagnosed — with 6 baits on book and watcher armed (nextFallbackMin=39), are the current baits still within price bands, and has any evidence surfaced to narrow

arb-hunter-tom: diagnose new crash immediately — armed=false/pidAlive=false/no-fallback; pull exit code from wake logs, check if binary path broke or if this is the same PID-death pattern as vulture-a

vulture-andrew: PID death root cause undiagnosed for multiple cycles; gap-protect is a band-aid — escalate to owner for process supervision fix (systemd / restart policy)

LP-Maker-Matheus $94.23/5h burn with negative PnL: audit spread width vs realized taker edge; if takers are extracting more than spread earns, widen quotes or reduce requote frequency

rebalancer-lior: sMSFT balance 0.03 permanently below LP-Maker minimum 0.030888 — agent cannot execute its trim; mission needs a fallback counterparty or lot-size floor adjustment

index-maker + index-taker at 55th null cycle with $0 burn and zero activity — either deploy with wallet funding or formally decommission to clear observer noise