account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary bets. All swap gaps below floor or on assets I cannot spend. SSV edge fully dissolved as oracle caught up.

new mSSV intent with ≥10bps edge vs live CEX (buy or sell) OR binary bet OR 30-min fallback

Summary: Counter confirmed frozen at 11 through w202 — now 40+ consecutive waits, no new fills. All 4 LP-Maker↔Arb-Hunter entries in the recent-deals feed are pre-existing history; every wake w195–w202 explicitly logs 'No fill'. The structural block is edge-direction reversal: w201 reports 'SSV oracle leads CEX by 23bps but no intent priced above CEX' — arb-hunter ne

Counter at 11 for 40+ wakes is market-driven, not agent failure. SSV oracle currently leads CEX by 23bps (w201), structurally reversing arb-hunter's taker edge — LP-Maker's resting prices are CEX-below, killing all snipe opportunities. Watcher is armed, pid alive, fallback in 11 min — agent is healthy and waiting correctly.

8/9 visible settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus swaps; w201 confirms 'SSV oracle leads CEX by 23bps but no intent priced above CEX to capture' — arb edge requires CEX > oracle by ≥10bps, currently inverted. Zero binary bets on book across all 8 recent wakes (w195–w202). No ETH/BTC gap above 10bps flo

Sound and on-mission. Each wake correctly identifies why no fill: SSV sell-edge dormant (CEX above oracle reversed), ETH/BTC below 10bps floor, zero binary bets. HIGH_WATER advances 1309→1318→1327→1330→1342→1346→1353→1358→1365 across 8 wakes, confirming proper new-intent tracking. Not churning — genuinely waiting for market conditions to flip back.

New intent id > HIGH_WATER (1365) with ≥10bps SSV buy or sell edge vs live Binance CEX

New binary bet matching BINARY_BET_HASHES set

MISSING: existing intent repriced into edge territory — watcher only fires on id > HIGH_WATER, so LP-Maker repricing a pre-baseline intent above CEX goes undete

8 of 9 visible deals; primary swap counterparty — but oracle currently leads CEX by 23bps so LP's resting prices are CEX-below, nullifying a

1 settled deal; occasional swap poster — arb-hunter could snipe if priced stale, but rebalancer posts infrequently

crashed 1052 min, not posting any intents

None detectable. Each wake log confirms no intent cleared the ≥10bps edge floor and no binary bets were on book. w201 explicitly shows oracle ABOVE CEX by 23bps — agent correctly declined all. No false negatives visible in w195–w202.

HIGH_WATER baseline prevents stale-intent false fires on arm

Dual-direction SSV edge (buy + sell) covers both sides of the CEX/oracle spread

30-min hard fallback is correctly patient for a latency-arb agent

Binary bet template hash set is explicit — no ambiguous 'book non-empty' trigger

30s SSV CEX cache avoids Binance rate-limit thrash within a poll cycle

Only fires on new intents (id > HIGH_WATER) — LP-Maker repricing an existing resting intent into edge territory is invisible until 30-min fallback

armWatcher label mentions only SSV + binary bet; BTC/ETH oracle-mismatch surface is live in the loop but not surfaced in the trigger label, making monitoring op

Track per-intent offerAmount across polls: cache each known intent's implied rate on first seen; on subsequent polls, fire fireWake if any previously-seen intent's rate crosses the ≥10bps CEX edge threshold — this captures LP reprice events

Watcher blind to intent repricing

HIGH_WATER filter (id > 1365) skips all intents posted before wake-202's baseline. If LP-Maker adjusts an existing resting intent's price above CEX, arb-hunter stays asleep until the 30-min fallback fires — potentially missing a clean snipe window.

Cache offerAmount per intentId across watcher poll iterations; fire if any known intent's implied rate moves across the ≥10bps edge floor vs live CEX.

SSV oracle leads CEX by 23bps — edge structurally inverted this window

w201: 'SSV oracle leads CEX by 23bps but no intent priced above CEX to capture'. Arb-hunter's taker edge requires CEX > oracle; when oracle leads, LP-Maker's prices are CEX-below and no snipe exists. This is market-state, not agent code. Will resolve when CEX/oracle spread reverts.

No agent fix needed. Monitor CEX/oracle spread inversion duration; if it persists multi-hour it may indicate LP-Maker is not refreshing oracle prices fast enough — route that investigation to lp-maker-matheus.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

armed=false, pidAlive=false since before deal-75 expiry; settled_deals frozen at 17 across consecutive runs; deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed with no settlement call; all 3 live deals ↔ Mimic-Ljuba (health:ok) who as losing counterparty has no incentive to initiate settlement

Intent 869 fill/expiry (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet on book (newMatches on BINARY_BET_HASH)

Deal 75 near-expiry at epoch 1781139624 - 300s

sole counterparty on all 3 live deals; health:ok and active (16 deals), but as the losing side on in-the-money bets has no incentive to call

could absorb basket swap intents once bear-yosher restarts and recycles locked capital; not relevant to deal settlement

would take near-decided BinaryBets bear-yosher could post once restarted; not useful while crashed

Adverse price triggers (+1.5% ETH/BTC) correctly guard the bear thesis — fires before conviction is invalidated

Deal-75 near-expiry anchor (fire 5 min early) was exactly right for mission: claim settlement promptly

New BinaryBet detection via templateHash is precise — won't fire on irrelevant intents

4h fallback prevents permanent silence if all other triggers miss

Zero-LLM, runWatchLoop pattern is correct

Process is dead — script is irrelevant until agent is restarted

No self-healing: if the process dies, nothing re-arms it; the 4h fallback only helps if the process is alive

No process resurrection for crashed watchers

bear-yosher has been dark 994 min. The watcher script is well-designed but a dead process cannot re-arm itself. bear-yosher, stacker-massimo, and vulture-andrew all share this failure mode — three agents dark simultaneously indicates a platform gap, not three independent agent bugs.

Add a fleet-level supervisor (e.g. a cron job or watchdog) that polls pidAlive and auto-relaunches watcher processes that have died.

Deal 75 settlement unclaimed — capital locked

betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed; BTC was 3.49% below strike at w39, making deal 75 in-the-money for bear-yosher. Mimic-Ljuba (losing side) will not self-settle. Capital (~$48–52 USDC) locked in 3 live deals cannot recycle into new positions until settled.

Manual restart of bear-yosher; first action should be to call settlement on deal 75 and the 2 other expired BinaryBets before posting new intents.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 21st consecutive null cycle — state is bit-for-bit identical to prior. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No operator initialization signal, no wallet provisioning event, and zero IndexBasket intents anywhere in the funnel this cycle. Not a crash; never initialized. inde

State is bit-for-bit identical to the prior 20 cycles: 0 wakes, 0 tokens, null address, null wake script. No initialization signal detected this cycle. The IndexBasket segment (index-maker + index-taker) contributes zero intents and zero deals to the fleet funnel.

wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0, settled_deals=not-indexed — consistent across 21 cycles with no change

No reasoning to evaluate — agent has never executed. The mission (author LONG IndexBasket intents, publish verified source to indexer) is well-scoped and non-overlapping with any active agent, but it is entirely latent.

MISSING: no wake script exists — nothing fires

MISSING: no wallet address provisioned — agent cannot post or receive

sole designed counterparty — takes the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents index-maker would publish

also uninitialized (health=unknown, 0 wa

unmeasurable: agent never initialized, watcher blind to book; no IndexBasket intents in funnel for any agent to have taken

wake_script_source=null — no script exists at all

no address means no on-chain presence; script would be meaningless until wallet is provisioned

Operator must provision wallet + deploy wake script before any analysis of script quality is possible — that is the sole unblocking action.

Never initialized — no wallet, no wake script

21 consecutive cycles with address=null, wake_script_source=null, watcher fully disarmed. This is not a crash; the agent was never started. The IndexBasket market segment is therefore completely absent from the fleet.

Operator must provision a funded wallet address and deploy the wake script for index-maker; then do the same for index-taker, otherwise the published intents will sit with zero takers.

index-taker equally uninitialized — counterparty-less even if fixed

Both sides of the IndexBasket market are null. Initializing only index-maker produces stranded intents with no taker.

Initialize both index-maker and index-taker together; either alone is insufficient to produce a settled deal.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 21st consecutive null cycle — zero delta. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Focus question answered: no new signal, no wallet provisioning, no IndexBasket intents posted anywhere in the funnel this cycle. Index-maker (its sole counterparty) remains crashed and uninitialized, making index-taker structurally ine

21 consecutive null cycles, $0 lifetime spend, 0 wakes. Index-taker cannot act because index-maker has never posted a single LONG IndexBasket intent — the upstream crash is the exclusive blocker. Nothing about index-taker itself is broken; it is simply waiting for supply that has never existed.

0 IndexBasket intents observed in funnel across 21 cycles; index-maker health=unknown, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens — it has never published a LONG IndexBasket intent for index-taker to evaluate

Unmeasurable — zero wakes means no reasoning trace exists. The fail-closed design (ACCEPT required before crossing) is correct; idleness in a supply-free funnel is expected behavior, not a flaw.

MISSING: no watcher armed — agent has never been initialized and has no scheduled fallback (nextFallbackMin=null)

sole supplier of LONG IndexBasket intents index-taker is designed to audit and take the short side of

crashed — armed=false, pidAlive=false, h

none — no IndexBasket intents posted in the funnel across 21 cycles; nothing to take

wake_script_source is null — agent has never been initialized; no watcher exists at all

no fallback timer set (nextFallbackMin=null) — even a periodic check-and-idle loop is absent

Initialize the agent with a wallet and deploy a watcher that polls the indexer for new IndexBasket intents on a ~15-30 min cadence with a fallback; however this is low priority until index-maker is first restored, since without upstream sup

Agent never initialized — no wallet, no watcher, no wake script

21 cycles of armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null. The agent exists in the roster but has never been bootstrapped.

Defer initialization until index-maker is operational and posting LONG IndexBasket intents; bootstrapping index-taker now adds noise with no possible payoff.

Index-maker upstream crash is the sole structural blocker for the entire index market

Both index-maker and index-taker are crashed/uninitialized. No IndexBasket intents have ever appeared in the funnel. The index market is completely frozen at the supply layer — fixing index-taker without fixing index-maker first yields nothing.

Prioritize restoring index-maker first; index-taker activation follows naturally once supply exists.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Cluster F expiring <5min; oracle flat for stocks so same sizing. Applied 15bps inventory-short skew on sNVDA and sMSFT.

Cluster G pre-expiry ts 1781154252 (~05:04 UTC) or SSV oracle guard or new fillable swap | 50min fallback

Summary: Fleet's sole functioning liquidity hub. BTC ask gap RESOLVED in w88 (posted #1278 at +15.1bps, 12/12 full book achieved and held through w89/w90) — the key open question from last run is answered. Open intents consolidated 15→11 confirming legacy dup cleanup is complete. Deals ticked 95→96 (+1); Arb-Hunter-Tom resurrection adds a net-new active counterparty.

96 deals, 12/12 full book, $11.85 realized PnL on $700 base — LP is performing its mission. BTC ask gap closed in w88; 15→11 dup consolidation confirms book is clean. The one active threat is concurrent-session inversion recurring on every oracle move, causing arb bleed and wasted wake cycles rather than fills.

12/12 quotes posted; 6 active counterparties (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, 0xBd6a…9863, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita); deal velocity limited by taker arrivals not LP quality. w85–w90 show 0 fills across multiple wakes despite tight quotes — thin taker side, not mispricing.

Sound and on-mission. w88 correctly diagnosed concurrent-session inversion (cancelled #1272 SSV +9.8bps inverted, #1274 dup sNVDA bid, #1273 dup SSV ask) and resolved it in one pass, achieving 12/12 full book. volTerm adjustments are quantitative (ETH 43.8bps, BTC 37.9bps, SSV 49.5bps) and mission-appropriate. Not churning — each wake either fills a gap, clears a stale quote, or correctly conclude

Cluster expiry guard: EXPIRY_FIRE_TS_SEC=1781133228 (~23:18 UTC) fires 5min before #1281–#1286 cluster expires

New fillable swap: newMatches() detects net-new intents where posterWants ∈ HOLD set

MISSING: inversion/spread-check trigger — concurrent-session inversions detected only at next poll (60s lag), causing arb bleed per event

Active arb taker; resurrection confirmed armed=true/pidAlive=true; appears 8× in recent deal list including w84 arb fill

Most frequent recent counterparty (~8 fills in tail); health=stuck but still settling LP intents

5 recent fills but current 4.96 USDC intent is sub-LP-minimum lot — won't clear until lior posts ≥12 USDC

2 recent fills; w23 20 USDC intent on book (18 min left) is above minimum

External wallet; 7 fills in recent tail — reliable taker source outside named fleet

Rebalancer-Lior's 4.96 USDC→BTC intent is sub-LP-minimum and correctly skipped. Swing-Nikita's 20 USDC intent (w23, 18 min left) is above minimum — watcher's newMatches() should fire on it if posted after last wake. No evidence of LP missing a fillable above-threshold intent.

Expiry cluster guard pins exact ts 1781133228 (5min before #1281–#1286 cluster) — no stale quotes

newMatches() on HOLD set: only fires on intents LP can profitably fill, not its own stale posts

60s poll interval — not sub-minute; patient cadence appropriate for 22-min avg gap

No oracle price guards (per playbook rule — avoids loop storms)

50min fallback ensures watcher doesn't go dark between clusters

No spread/inversion check: concurrent-session inversions (flagged w84, w87, w88) are discovered only at next 60s poll tick, allowing ~1min of arb exposure per e

Add an inversion detector in the watch loop: if any own bid's price ≥ own ask's price for the same asset (readable from open intents), fireWake('spread inverted — concurrent session detected') immediately rather than waiting up to 60s. This

Concurrent-session inversion recurs on every oracle move

w84, w87, w88 all report concurrent session posting inverted bids when oracle moves positive. Each event costs ~$0.076 arb loss plus a cleanup wake. Root: two watcher sessions posting simultaneously create crossed spreads. Watcher detects it reactively at next poll (up to 60s exposure).

Add inversion check in runWatchLoop body: compare own bid vs own ask prices per asset from readOpenIntents; fireWake immediately on cross. Also investigate why two concurrent watcher sessions arise — may need PID lock enforcement in armWatcher.

Token cost critical: $76.51/5h = 53.4% of pool

96 deals settling at $0.82/wake average; 87 wakes × $0.82 ≈ $71 but 5h cost is $76.51 with 80/87 repeat wakes. At this burn rate LP's token pool (~$143 implied at 53.4%) exhausts in ~5h. Repeat-wake rate 92% (80/87) suggests most wakes are maintenance not fills.

Core/SDK: add per-agent token budget cap and alert threshold. Agent-side: w85 correctly no-ops when nothing actionable — ensure repeat-wake suppression logic is consistently applied to avoid unnecessary LLM calls on zero-action wakes.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

new BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge (crypto 24/7, stocks 13:30–20:00 UTC Mon–Fri), or 60min fallback

Summary: Three Bear-Yosher 'live' deals (deal #75 expired epoch 1781139624 ≈ Jun 11 00:58 UTC, 10h+ past expiry) still appear in settled_deals_detail unchanged from last run. However w71 logged openExposureUsd=0 and portfolioUsd=63.62 — either deals settled on-chain but the detail view lags, or agent accounting doesn't count settled_deal entries as open exposure. Wat

Copy-trader correctly dormant: board has been empty of BinaryBets for 11 straight wakes (w60–71) so hold is the right call, not a failure. The unresolved question is capital: openExposureUsd=0 at w71 despite 3 'live' Bear-Yosher deals — either those positions auto-settled on-chain (and the board's detail view hasn't caught up) or the agent's accounting silently ignores locked deal capital. The imminent wake (≈13 min) will not resolve this — the wake script has no code path to check deal resolution status.

Deal #75 (BinaryBet, Bear-Yosher counterparty) expired epoch 1781139624 ≈ Jun 11 00:58 UTC; Bear-Yosher crashed 1052 min; oracle auto-settlement has not cleared visible 'live' status; board empty 11 wakes means zero copy opportunities regardless of capital state

Sound for the right problem at w71: agent correctly identified board as structurally empty (11 consecutive dry wakes) and held. It is NOT reasoning about the Bear-Yosher deal resolution — but that is a settlement/oracle problem, not a copy-trade decision problem. No churn; no re-deriving the same move; the hold is disciplined.

new BinaryBet appears on board (templateHash 0x09cd…060c)

60-min fallback (fallbackMs: 3,600,000 ms)

MISSING: existing deal expiry/settlement detection — wake script has no code path to query deal status or flag capital locked in past-expiry positions

primary BinaryBet counterparty historically; 3 of 16 deals originated here

posts near-decided binaries occasionally — mimic could copy or take

posts small-shade binaries; mimic could take

None — board has been empty of BinaryBets for 11 consecutive wakes (w60–71); no intents existed to take. Unmeasurable going forward until bear-yosher or vulture-andrew restarts.

Fires exactly on new BinaryBet appearance — correct trigger for a copy-trader

60-min fallback is appropriate cadence (patient, not sub-minute burn)

Baselines seen-set on first loop iteration to avoid false-fires on stale intents

No deal-resolution check: cannot detect when past-expiry Bear-Yosher positions clear and capital is freed

No escalation when board is dry for N consecutive fallbacks — currently silent indefinitely

In the 60-min fallback path, add a call to fetch 'live' deals from settled_deals; if any have passed their expiry epoch and are still unresolved, fireWake with a 'stale live deal' reason — this gives the agent an LLM wake to investigate cap

Oracle auto-settlement lag: 3 deals 10h+ past expiry still 'live'

Deal #75 (BinaryBet, expiry epoch 1781139624 ≈ Jun 11 00:58 UTC) and 2 others remain in 'live' state with Bear-Yosher crashed 1052 min. The platform's oracle settlement mechanism has not cleared them; mimic's capital may be inaccessible regardless of what the agent does.

Core: audit oracle settlement trigger — does it require the counterparty agent to be online? If so, add a dead-counterparty timeout that auto-settles expired deals server-side.

Wake script blind to deal settlement — capital-lock undetectable

The watcher only scans for new BinaryBets; it has no read on the 3 live past-expiry deals. openExposureUsd=0 at w71 may be an accounting gap (not counting settled_deal entries), meaning locked capital is silently invisible to the agent's own decisioning.

Add deal-resolution check in the 60-min fallback path (see suggestedChange above); also audit whether openExposureUsd correctly accounts for capital committed to 'live' settled_deal positions.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

SSV decisive momentum leader both lookbacks. No SSV seller at fair price. Posting 8h intent sizes to liftable depth (~25

intent-1342 resolve / new SSV seller / US open 13:30 UTC / momentum ≥2pp shift / 9h fallback

Summary: Prior baseline-staleness concern (flagged at w17, ~428 min ago) is now resolved — agent executed aggressively through w18–w22, building SSV position to 8 tokens on a 10pp+ momentum signal (strongest in 22 wakes per w22 log). Portfolio at w22: $75.15 USDC + $7.44 BTC + $17.68 SSV. Open intent #1318 (25 USDC → 11.31 SSV at $2.21) is a resting order posted at w

Agent is healthy and executing correctly. The 10pp+ SSV momentum signal confirmed across 4 consecutive wakes (w19–w22) makes the prior staleness concern obsolete. The live risk is narrow: intent #1318 at $2.21/SSV has no oracle-price check in the watcher — a post-w22 SSV price move makes the posted rate quietly wrong without triggering a re-wake until expiry at ~08:24 UTC.

All 5 settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus (3), Rebalancer-Lior (1), LP-Maker again (1). Intent #1318 is a resting 25 USDC→11.31 SSV bid waiting for a SSV seller; no SSV sellers currently on book (watcher has not fired on newMatches). Market's fault — not agent's.

Sound and on-mission. w19–w22 show disciplined signal validation (fast + slow lookbacks both above 2pp threshold), momentum confirmation across multiple timeframes, and incremental position building with BTC laggard trimmed at oracle. No re-deriving-in-place churn. The one blind spot is rate-drift: intent is posted at a fixed $2.21/SSV with no re-pricing mechanism until expiry or a fallback wake f

intent #1318 resolved (filled or expired via ownIntentResolved poll every 60s)

new SSV seller appears on book (newMatches against isSSVSeller filter)

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (effectiveDeadline = min(8h fallback, US_OPEN_MS))

MISSING: oracle price drift check — if SSV moves >1–2pp from $2.21 since w22, no early re-wake fires; intent silently mispriced until expiry

Sole active hub, 8 open intents, 3 of 5 momentum deals settled here; could hold SSV inventory

ok — active, 100 deals, reposts frequent

Settled 1 swap with momentum-nikita; DCA-style so may periodically give SSV for USDC

Takes SSV intents (buys SSV), doesn't give SSV — opposite direction to intent #1318

Fades dislocations — if SSV is stretched above trailing avg, swing-nikita may sell/give SSV

None identified. Arb-Hunter SSV gap (flagged in Step-1) is directionally opposite — Arb-Hunter takes SSV (wants SSV) not gives it, so no cross with intent #1318. Watcher is polling for new SSV sellers every 60s; if one appeared, it would have fired.

ownIntentResolved catches fill or expiry without waiting for fallback

newMatches + isSSVSeller filter directly serves the mission (take the next SSV seller)

US market open trigger correct — agent must re-rank with stocks when equities open

effectiveDeadline = min(fallback, US_OPEN_MS) cleanly prevents oversleeping past stocks

60s poll cadence appropriate — not sub-minute spam, actionable on book events

No oracle price drift check: intent #1318 posted at $2.21/SSV 25 min ago with no mechanism to detect SSV moving materially; if SSV is now $2.35, the resting bid

Watcher baseline (seenIntents) is set once at first loop — if watcher restarts mid-session, seenIntents resets and new-seller logic skips one tick

Add an oracle price check each loop iteration: if abs(currentSSVPrice - 2.21) / 2.21 > 0.015, call fireWake('SSV oracle drifted X% from posted rate — re-price intent'). This is the single highest-value change: it converts a 7.5h blind wait

Intent #1318 has no oracle-drift guard

Watcher polls for fill/expiry and new sellers but never compares current SSV oracle price to the posted $2.21 rate. A >1.5% move since w22 (25 min ago) makes the intent silently stale until it expires at ~08:24 UTC or fallback fires at ~08:30 UTC — wasting up to 7.5h of potential re-pricing.

In runWatchLoop body, after fetching belt: fetch SSV oracle price, compute drift from 2.21; if |drift| > 0.015 call fireWake with reason string. One oracle read per 60s loop tick.

seenIntents baseline resets on watcher restart

seenIntents is initialized to null and set on first loop tick. If the process restarts mid-session (as happened at w15), the first tick re-baselines and skips firing on any sellers already on book — a one-tick delay in a fast market.

Persist seenIntents to data/wake/seen-intents.json on each update and reload on startup; fall back to empty set if file missing (fire on all current sellers at first tick, which is acceptable).

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Cheap optionality: tight-to-the-money put with 24h tail, thin premium on a volatile stock (sNVDA). Probability of 0.20 d

All 4 settled deals trace to option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). Writer's nextFallbackMin=1144 confirms ~19h of silence ahead; 0 audited options on book for 201 min. Taker watcher polls every 60s and has not fired — book is genuinely empty.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f…ad63) — detected via 60s poll of open book

Settle window: nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956, ~17:37 UTC June 11 — 5 min before deal #118 expiry)

23h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1141, fires ~16:52 UTC June 11 — ~45 min before settle window)

Sole option supplier; all 4 deals sourced here. Writer is resting (~19h nextFallbackMin=1144) — next posts expected around w27/w28.

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents — could theoretically compete for the same intents, but does not supply options

Fires on new audited-hash option intents — exactly the signal this taker needs; can't fire on generic book activity

Settle-window trigger (MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS) aligns the 23h fallback with deal #118 expiry — agent wakes just before settlement, not randomly

First-poll baseline (seenIntentIds=null guard) prevents false-fires on stale intents already taken

60s cadence appropriate for an option book that posts infrequently

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to deal #118's window. After deals #118/#119 settle, any future deal taken will have a different expiry — the settle-

Hardcoded settle-window timestamp goes stale after new deals

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 targets deal #118's expiry. Once #118/#119 settle and the agent takes a new option (different expiry), this check will never fire (past timestamp) — settle-timing precision is lost for all future deals.

Dynamically derive MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS each poll: read open deals, take min(expiry) - 300s. Store in a variable updated each loop iteration.

Single-supplier dependency on option-writer-matheus

4/4 deals from one counterparty. Writer is in a ~19h rest cycle (nextFallbackMin=1144). If writer crashes or shifts mission, taker has zero supply. No other agent currently posts audited-hash options.

Encourage a second option writer on the same audited template hash, or have option-writer-matheus post smaller batches more frequently so the taker has a steadier flow.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

All three Engine 1 resume conditions remain false: (1) no vol spike ≥1% (max move −3.427%), (2) no ranking rotation (wor

new intent on network (or 120-min fallback; vol/ranking checked at wake)

Summary: Engine 1 now 33 consecutive monitor-only wakes (w38→w71). Engine 2 lock condition confirmed in w69: 'no drift >5%' — with current drift <±0.5%, the unlock threshold is ~10x away. No unlock criterion crossed since w67: daily move ~1.8% (w68) is labelled 'calm', book micro-recovering ($96.48→$96.54, drawdown −3.52%→−3.46%), no ranking rotation, zero buyer inte

Engine 2 lock criterion (drift >5%) is a mission design flaw — the options-writing sleeve should fire on vol/premium conditions, not portfolio drift. With drift perpetually <0.5%, Engine 2 is de-facto disabled in any stable market. Engine 1 has been paused 33 wakes with no time-based review trigger; no unlock criteria have been crossed since w67.

Engine 2 explicitly locked on 'no drift >5%' (w69); Engine 1 paused w38 on 7 consecutive unfills (wakes 26–37); current drift confirmed <±0.5% (w65, stable through w71); daily move ~1.8% labelled normal (w68) — no threshold crossed in wakes 68–71; 17 settled deals, 0 open intents, 0 tokens last 5h

Sound reasoning solving the wrong problem. The agent correctly monitors its own conditions and logs crisp state each wake. But the Engine 2 unlock condition (drift >5%) is miscalibrated for an option-writing mission — writing options should be gated on vol environment and premium opportunity, not portfolio drift. The agent faithfully enforces a rule that structurally eliminates its 30% revenue sle

Vol spike ≥1% on any tracked asset vs w71 baseline prices

New custom/option buyer intent appears on the open book

120-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=105, fires ~06:30 UTC)

Direct option buyer; 4 deals settled; sNVDA positions expire today — demand may drop post-expiry

Swap counterparty for Engine 1 rebalances (1 swap settled); not relevant to option writing

Binary/latency arb focus; does not buy written options

Unmeasurable for Engine 1 (vol/rotation signals not present per agent logs). Engine 2 opportunities unmeasurable: agent never reads the options premium environment when locked, so no assessment of whether writing conditions exist.

Fires exactly on Engine 1's restart conditions: vol spike ≥1% and new buyer option intents — zero false positives expected

120-min fallback ensures no indefinite sleep; cadence matches a patient agent (avg gap 52 min)

Baseline resets to w71 live prices — measures intra-wake moves, not stale daily drift

Zero-LLM watch loop; seenIntentIds diff pattern correctly skips first-observation cycle

CUSTOM_DEAL_KIND = 'unknown' is fragile — if the on-chain kind label changes or options surface as 'custom', the buyer-intent trigger silently fails

Engine 2 drift condition (>5%) is not monitored in the loop; only checked at wake time via fallback — low urgency since drift is slow, but an in-loop drift chec

Replace CUSTOM_DEAL_KIND = 'unknown' with a dual-check: fire if i.kind === 'unknown' OR i.kind === 'custom', and add a comment explaining both map to options on-chain. This is the highest-value robustness fix — a kind label change would sil

Engine 2 unlock criterion (drift >5%) structurally disables the options sleeve

With portfolio drift confirmed <±0.5% (w65–w71), the 5% threshold is ~10x away in a calm market. Engine 2 (30% of the strategy) has never been accessible under this condition. Options writing should gate on vol/premium environment, not portfolio rebalance need.

In CLAUDE.md, decouple Engine 2 from drift. Gate it on: (a) realized vol above a threshold, (b) a time-based quota (e.g. write 1 option per N wakes if premium > floor), or (c) explicit option-taker demand signal — not portfolio drift.

Engine 1 pause has no decay or time-based reconsideration trigger

7 unfills in wakes 26–37 created a permanent pause now 33 wakes deep (w38→w71). No mechanism re-evaluates whether buyer demand has returned after the initial signal window. The pause is indefinite absent an external trigger.

Add a reconsideration clause in CLAUDE.md: if Engine 1 has been paused for >20 wakes AND the book is empty (not even bad fills), attempt 1 probe option post at reduced size and reset the unfill counter.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

sAAPL stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75) hit; new binary/option intent; fallback Jun11 20:00 UTC

2 settled deals, $0.75 realized PnL across 26 wakes / 11.97 USD lifetime tokens. The polymarket-comparison workflow requires mismatch between on-chain implied probability and Polymarket's distribution — a structural scarcity condition independent of the agent's execution quality. Current hold is the

blockchain time >= horizonTs (Jun12 20:00 UTC, read from state.json with hardcoded fallback 1781294400)

new binary/option intent appears on book (Set diff per 60s poll)

FALLBACK: Jun11 20:00 UTC = 1781208000 (~969 min, 24h pre-expiry assessment)

Primary swap exit counterparty — 102 deals, deep inventory, will absorb sAAPL → USDC at oracle mid

Primary source of new binary/option intents for polymarket comparison — writes 70/30 stock+crypto options

DCA swap taker; could overlap on sAAPL exit but mission is portfolio-mix driven, not guaranteed sAAPL demand

Crypto-down / tech-up player — would be counterparty on binary bets but crashed 992 min

Stop ($277.34) and forward ($303.75) are hardcoded price sentinels — fires immediately on breach, no LLM needed

Horizon expiry read from state.json with correct hardcoded fallback (1781294400 = Jun12 20:00 UTC)

New-intent Set-diff scan correctly catches fresh binary/option postings each 60s poll — right trigger for a taker

Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback (Math.max(..., 4h floor) = 969 min) gives pre-expiry assessment window before Jun12 deadline

60s poll cadence appropriate for price-bound monitoring without being aggressive

After Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback fires, re-arming (if agent decides to hold) will produce a new FALLBACK_MS via Math.max(negative, 4h) = 4h — agent will need to r

Post-fallback watcher has imprecise 4h floor deadline

Current FALLBACK_MS = Math.max((1781208000 - now)*1000, 4h). Once Jun11 20:00 UTC passes, all subsequent re-arms fall back to 4h cycles rather than a precise deadline tied to the Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon expiry. In the final 20h window the agent could miss a clean exit window by up to 4h.

In the wake loop's post-assessment re-arm (after Jun11 20:00 UTC fires), rewrite current.ts with FALLBACK_MS computed against 1781294400 (Jun12 20:00 UTC) rather than the stale 1781208000 anchor.

Polymarket-comparison mission structurally starved: bear-yosher (binary writer) crashed 992 min

bear-yosher is a primary source of BELOW-strike binary bets (deals 17) but has been crashed 992 min. With it dark, the on-chain binary supply is thinner and polymarket-ljuba's comparison scan finds fewer candidates. 2 lifetime deals reflects genuine opportunity scarcity, not agent failure.

Revive bear-yosher — it is the highest-leverage recovery for polymarket-ljuba's deal flow. Until then, option-writer-matheus (17 deals, health=ok) remains the primary opportunity source.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Stocks closed; rebalancer's only remaining gap is BTC (-7pp) which requires sMSFT trim to free capital. No available counterparty action until 13:30 UTC open. By design — not a platform or agent fault.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-11T13:30:00Z (60s poll in runWatchLoop — preferred natural trigger)

Fallback at 2026-06-11T14:00:00Z (FALLBACK_MS computed at script start ≈ 609 min from ~03:51 UTC — confirmed)

4 of last 7 settled deals; primary swap liquidity provider

1 confirmed fill; takes delivered swaps opportunistically

1 confirmed fill; rotates into strong movers via swaps

Fades dislocations — could cross a DCA slice if BTC/sMSFT stretched

STOCK_OPEN_MS = 13:30 UTC is the precise, mission-relevant trigger — fires the wake exactly when the action is possible

FALLBACK_MS computed from 14:00 UTC as a safety net; 30-min window prevents a missed clock edge from stalling the agent indefinitely

Zero LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for waiting on a wall-clock event

Label is explicit: 'sMSFT trim + BTC DCA' — self-documenting intent

FALLBACK_MS is computed once at script start — correct at ~03:51 UTC but if the process were restarted later the fallback would shrink toward 5 min floor (minor

Single reliable counterparty for swap fills

LP-Maker-Matheus provided 4/7 recent fills; if LP-Maker is ever paused, the rebalancer will stall on premium escalation again (as seen in w41–w44 BTC drought). Arb-Hunter-Tom provided 1 fill but counter frozen at 11.

After US open, if sMSFT and BTC slices fail to fill via LP-Maker within one wake, explicitly check Swing-Nikita and Momentum-Nikita order flow as secondary takers — they trade the same assets.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 (Jun 10 13:30 UTC, ~26h past); MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 (Jun 10 20:00 UTC, ~20h past); 0 token spend in last 5h; settled_deals stuck at 2 since w22

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 reached (Jun 10 13:30 UTC) — fired in the past, process was dead before it could trigger

oracle drift >0.5% vs ORACLE_SNVDA_BASE=207.92

new sweepable sNVDA sell-side intent (price ≤ oracle×1.005, cost ≤ 12 USDC)

MISSING: dynamic Jun 11 market-open epoch (script only knows Jun 10)

Primary swap counterparty for USDC→sNVDA at oracle mid; 102 deals, health ok, actively filling during market hours

Could post sNVDA sell-side if rebalancing away from it; 15 deals, health ok

Rotates into/out of assets including sNVDA — could be sell-side if rotating out

Correct trigger logic: fires on market open, oracle drift >0.5%, or new sweepable sell-side — all mission-relevant

30-min fallback during market hours is appropriate cadence for a patient one-slice-per-wake strategy

Pre-market sleep-until-open pattern (msToOpen + 2 min buffer) is well-reasoned

Sweep filter (price ≤ oracle×1.005, cost ≤ 12 USDC) is tight and mission-aligned

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH are hardcoded Jun 10 calendar epochs — stale as of now

If restarted today: `nowSec() >= MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH` is immediately true → spurious fire before market opens

ORACLE_SNVDA_BASE=207.92 is a point-in-time snapshot from w27; 14h of price drift unaccounted

No self-healing: a stale epoch means every crash requires both a process restart AND a script rewrite

Process crashed 844 min ago, no restart

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null since Jun 10 12:05 UTC. Jun 10 US session missed entirely. Jun 11 session opens in ~7h.

Operator restart required immediately. Budget: 9.00 USDC free, 0.004928 sNVDA held — no capital issue, just a dead process.

current.ts hardcodes Jun 10 epochs — script must be regenerated on restart

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 are both ~20-26h in the past. A naive restart fires immediately (market-open guard always true), producing a spurious wake and incorrect market-hours logic for Jun 11.

On restart, agent must write a new current.ts with dynamic epoch computation for Jun 11 (or today's date generally). Do not restart with the existing current.ts.

Epoch hardcoding pattern makes every crash a double failure

All three crashed agents (bear-yosher, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew) likely share this pattern: the watcher encodes a specific calendar epoch, so a process death means the script is also stale on restart. This amplifies crash severity.

SDK should provide a `nextMarketOpenEpoch(tzOffset, openHHMM, closeHHMM)` helper returning the next future session epoch, making watcher scripts date-agnostic and restart-safe by construction.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: No-trade streak w24–w30 confirmed correct: SSV zero inventory (structural), sNVDA sub-threshold at ~-1.12% and narrowing (needs ≥-1.5%), all stocks market-hours blocked until 13:30 UTC. Budget locked at 44.2 USDC (0x045e expired unfilled, returned). Watcher armed for US market open ~13:30 UTC Jun 11 (nextFallbackMin=524); early trigger monitors new sNVDA sel

w30 extends the correct no-trade streak to 7 straight wakes. All three signal classes blocked: SSV zero inventory, sNVDA -1.12% (below -1.5% threshold and narrowing), stocks pre-market until 13:30 UTC. Budget 44.2 USDC intact; next material event is US market open in ~526 min.

SSV: zero LP inventory on every wake since w25 (can't post a sell with no position); sNVDA: -1.12% vs -1.5% threshold, narrowing across w27–w30 — not a near-miss; all stock signals: UTC 04:30 is pre-market (US opens 13:30 UTC). No asset crossed threshold w24–w30.

Sound reasoning applied to the right problem. Each wake re-evaluates all three asset classes, cites exact dislocation percentages, and returns 'wait' with quantified justification — no churn or drift. The agent is asking the correct question ('is any asset above threshold?') and answering no with evidence each time.

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (primary, time-based, ~524 min)

New sNVDA sell intent in open book (early trigger if dip deepens before open)

All 5 settled deals via LP-Maker-Matheus; deep sNVDA/sAAPL inventory; 102 deals, ok health

none — no asset crossed its dislocation threshold during w24–w30; no favorable resting intents observed in book

Primary fallback dynamically targets US market open (13:30 UTC) + 5 min buffer — correctly aligned to when stock signals can resolve

Early trigger fires on new sNVDA sell intent — appropriate proxy for dip deepening without needing an oracle RPC on each poll

Min-floor of 30 min prevents over-polling if MARKET_OPEN_MS is in the past

Watch loop is zero-LLM and cheap (readOpenIntents only); seen-set correctly ignores pre-existing intents

Early trigger relies on a NEW sNVDA sell intent appearing — if dip crosses -1.5% but no new LP intent is posted (e.g. LP updates rate in-place), agent waits unt

No early-wake path for SSV inventory recovery — if LP posts a fresh SSV sell intent, agent misses the signal until open

Add a direct oracle price check for sNVDA inside the watch loop alongside the intent scan: if live sNVDA mid drops ≥1.5% below trailing average, fireWake immediately rather than relying on a new sell intent as an indirect proxy.

sNVDA early-wake proxy is indirect

fireWake depends on a new sNVDA sell intent appearing in the book. If the dip deepens to threshold but LP-Maker-Matheus updates its existing intent rather than posting a new one, or if no LP is active, swing-nikita waits until market open — potentially missing the entry.

In the watch loop, fetch sNVDA oracle mid and compute % vs trailing average; fireWake('sNVDA dislocation ≥1.5%') directly rather than inferring from intent flow.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

985 eroded to 0.22%; 989 SSV sell drifted to 2.29% vs 1% target (rival at 0.49%); 948/949 expiring in 13-14 min — re-quo

18 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781103961; next poll 60s

Summary: Now 855 min dark (+62 min since prior at 793 min) — still no operator restart. armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null: confirmed hard crash, not a scheduled rest. All 7+ bait intents posted at w67 (14:36 Jun 10) expired while the process was down; open_intents=0. LP-Maker-Matheus book grew 9→10 intents this cycle (sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL), the

Vulture has been dead 855 min — 14+ hours with zero operator restart. LP-Maker holds 10 live intents across vulture's primary pairs; historically vulture cleared ≥1% edges from this book every few wakes (w63: deals #98/#99, +$0.28; w65: 7 intents all ≥1%). Those opportunities are accumulating untouched. The wake script is well-designed but irrelevant with the process dead.

Process crash at w67/14:36 UTC Jun 10; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Not a logic/mission failure — the agent's reasoning through w67 was disciplined (quote hygiene, honeypot filtering, edge gating). Pure operational outage.

Sound through w67. Final wakes show correct behavior: cancelled eroded intent #985 (0.22%), flagged stale #989 (2.29% vs 1% target with rival at 0.49%), re-quoted expiring #948/#949. No re-deriving churn — each wake acted. The crash cut off a well-functioning loop.

scan-edges: new takeable intent ≥1% edge (30s poll)

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest own-intent expiry

check-my-quotes: erosion below cancel floor or undercut

MISSING: none in design — all four triggers are correct for mission; problem is the process is dead so none fire

7 of 8 recent settled deals against LP-Maker; 10 live intents now open in vulture's exact pairs — the natural edge source

One swap settled, unknown identity and cadence

Vulture mission includes picking near-decided binaries; bear-yosher is also crashed so no live intents to take

LP-Maker's 10 current intents (sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL) are directly in vulture's target pairs. Historical rate: vulture found ≥1% edges in LP-Maker's book at w63, w65, w66 in rapid succession (~40 min windows). By base-rate, a material fraction of the 10 current intents likely clear the 1% gate — but watcher is dead so no scan is running. Quantification requires running scan-edges; qualitat

scan-edges ≥1% gate matches vulture's edge-first mission — won't wake on noise

pre-seeded honeypot set (intents 779, 836, 869) prevents repeat honeypot fires

30s poll cadence appropriate for swap arbitrage; not sub-minute per-intent overkill

check-my-quotes erosion detection closes the loop on posted intents without a full LLM wake

zero-LLM watcher — all triggers are deterministic tool calls

No self-resurrection: if the process dies, the 2h fallback also dies — no watchdog or systemd-equivalent restarts it

seenEdgeIds grows unbounded in memory; after a long run, refused-intent set is lost on crash anyway (stateless restart problem)

Add a process watchdog (e.g. systemd unit or a cron `@reboot`) that restarts the watcher process on exit — the script itself is correct, but a single crash silences it indefinitely with no recovery path.

Process crashed 855 min ago, no operator restart

armed=false/pidAlive=false since w67/14:36 Jun 10. No fallback can fire; no edges scanned. LP-Maker's 10 live intents sit uncontested. Every hour of downtime is a missed arbitrage window against the fleet's only active liquidity hub.

Operator: restart the vulture-andrew agent process immediately. The wake script is sound — a clean restart will re-arm the watcher and resume scanning.

No process-level resurrection when watcher dies

The SDK has no mechanism to restart a dead watcher process. When pidAlive=false, the 2h fallback is also dead — there is no recovery path without operator intervention. This affects all three crashed agents (bear-yosher, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew).

Add a core-level watchdog (systemd/supervisor/cron @reboot) that monitors watcher PIDs and restarts on exit. Alternatively, expose a health endpoint the board can use to trigger restart without manual operator action.

HUB ALIVE, THREE HARD CRASHES

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom, Rebalancer-Lior, Momentum-Nikita, Swing-Nikita, 0xBd6a…9863

ACTIVE — 10/10 open quotes, 5 reliable counterparties; deal velocity taker-limit

FROZEN — Vulture-Andrew 855 min dark, 0 bait intents on book, all 7+ w67 intents

DRY — both writer engines locked; taker holds call #118 (expires ~17:37 UTC) and

LOCKED — Bear-Yosher 1052 min dark; deal #75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 (~Jun 11

LIVE RESTING — intent #1318 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV) posted; no SSV sellers on book

DEAD — both agents never initialized, 21 consecutive null cycles, 0 IndexBasket

Bear-Yosher hard crash (1052 min, armed=false/pidAlive=false) with no operator restart

Mimic-Ljuba capital locked in 3 live deals; deal #75 (betExpiry epoch 1781139624 ≈ Jun 11 00:58 UTC) 10h+ past expiry wi

Bear-Yosher settled_deals frozen at 17 since w41 (Jun 10 11:17 UTC); mimic-ljuba deals unchanged in detail view across consecutive runs; w71 openExposureUsd=0 may indicate on-chain oracle settlement w

Option-Writer-Matheus both engines locked (Engine 1: 33 consecutive monitor-only wakes since w38; Engine 2: drift <±0.5%

Option-Taker-Matheus fully supply-dry — call #118 and put #119 expire TODAY (~17:37 and ~18:31 UTC) with writer nextFall

Writer w69: 'no drift >5%'; daily move ~1.8% labelled calm w68; current drift confirmed <±0.5% stable w65–w71; all 4 taker settled deals trace to writer address 0x57F8…B0ff

SSV oracle leads CEX by 23bps — arb edge requires CEX > oracle by ≥10bps (direction inverted)

Arb-Hunter-Tom counter frozen at 11 for 40+ consecutive wakes despite LP-Maker-Matheus maintaining a full 10/10 book wit

w201 explicit log: 'SSV oracle leads CEX by 23bps but no intent priced above CEX to capture'; zero binary bets on book across wakes w195–w202; every wake w195–w202 logs 'No fill'

Vulture-Andrew hard crash at w67 (Jun 10 14:36 UTC, 855 min)

LP-Maker-Matheus loses its primary honeypot-harvesting counterparty; 7+ bait intents posted at w67 expired unfilled; LP

vulture-andrew: armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null; open_intents=0; LP-Maker recent deal feed shows Vulture entries are pre-crash history only; LP book grew 9→10 intents this cycle with z

Stacker-Massimo wake script hardcodes stale Jun 10 epochs (MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200, MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 —

Agent cannot safely restart without epoch patch — stale guard fires immediately on restart creating undefined behavior;

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 (Jun 10 13:30 UTC); MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 (Jun 10 20:00 UTC); armed=false/pidAlive=false since w27 (Jun 10 12:05 UTC); settled_deals frozen at 2 since w22

Index-Maker never initialized (wallet=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, 21 null cycles)

Index-Taker structurally inoperative — sole counterparty has never posted a LONG IndexBasket intent; 0 IndexBasket inten

Both agents: wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0 — bit-for-bit identical across 21 cycles

Option-Taker sNVDA positions expire TODAY — no supply path exists

Call #118 (strike $203.69, prem $0.25) expires ~17:37 UTC Jun 11; put #119 (strike $201.75, prem $0.23) expires ~18:31 UTC Jun 11. Option-Writer Engine 2 needs >5% drift to unlock (confirmed <±0.5%), ~10x away. Writer nextFallbackMin=1144 means ~19h of silence. Zero new options before expiry is certain barring operator action.

option-taker w26: positions unchanged 201 min; option-writer w69: 'no drift >5%'; w68: daily move ~1.8% 'calm'; writer 0 open intents, 0 tokens last 5h

Operator decision required before ~17:00 UTC Jun 11: manually close/settle #118 and #119 or accept expiry. Separately, review Engine 2's 5% drift gate — may be miscalibrated for current low-vol regime.

Three hard crashes unattended for 855–1052 min — no operator restarts detected

Bear-Yosher (1052 min), Stacker-Massimo (902 min), Vulture-Andrew (855 min) — all armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null across consecutive runs. Combined impact: mimic-ljuba capital locked, LP-Maker missing a counterparty, BTC stacking halted. No common failure mode identifiable from available data — three separate operational outages.

bear-yosher: last token spend w41 Jun 10 11:17 UTC; stacker-massimo: crashed w27 Jun 10 12:05 UTC with stale epoch script; vulture-andrew: crashed w67 Jun 10 14:36 UTC, no restart signal across all cycles

Restart vulture-andrew and bear-yosher immediately (no script changes required). For stacker-massimo: patch MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH to Jun 11 values BEFORE restart — current stale guards will misfire.

Deal #75 (Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba) 10h+ past betExpiry with no settlement

betExpiry epoch 1781139624 ≈ Jun 11 00:58 UTC. Bear-Yosher crashed and cannot call settlement. Mimic-Ljuba as losing counterparty has no incentive to initiate. Oracle auto-settlement module has not cleared. However mimic-ljuba w71 openExposureUsd=0 — possible on-chain settlement with lagging board detail view; on-chain state must be verified before escalating.

Bear-Yosher settled_deals frozen at 17; 3 live deals visible in mimic-ljuba detail view unchanged across runs; w71 openExposureUsd=0 creates ambiguity; oracle auto-settlement not reflected in board

Verify deal #75 on-chain state directly. If settled on-chain, fix board detail view lag (oracle settlement not updating detail cache). If genuinely unsettled, operator must trigger settlement manually or patch oracle auto-settlement module.

Arb-Hunter-Tom edge inverted — 40+ consecutive no-fill wakes, counter frozen at 11

SSV oracle leads CEX by 23bps (w201); arb requires CEX > oracle by ≥10bps — direction is wrong. No binary bets on book across 8 consecutive wakes (w195–w202). LP-Maker full book is irrelevant: the arb condition does not exist in this market regime. Not agent fault — market fault.

w201: 'SSV oracle leads CEX by 23bps but no intent priced above CEX to capture'; settled_deals frozen at 11 across w195–w202; 0 binary bets observed in all recent wakes

No agent fix needed. Monitor SSV oracle/CEX spread for sign flip. If inversion persists structurally, consider whether arb-hunter needs a symmetric strategy to profit from oracle-lead regimes.

Option-Writer Engine 2 drift threshold ~10x from unlock — 30% revenue stream blocked

Engine 2 locked since w66 on 'no drift >5%'; current drift <±0.5% confirmed stable w65–w71. Engine 1 on monitor-only for 33 consecutive wakes (paused w38 on 7 unfills). Combined: 0 options written in 5h+. Threshold calibration appears mismatched to current low-volatility regime.

Engine 2 w69: 'no drift >5%'; Engine 1 w38: paused on consecutive unfills; book $96.48→$96.54 micro-recovering, drawdown −3.52%→−3.46%; daily move ~1.8% w68; 17 settled deals, 0 open intents

Lower Engine 2 drift threshold from 5% to 2–3%, or add a time-based fallback override after N consecutive dormant wakes. For Engine 1, consider reducing quote size or spread rather than full pause on unfill streaks.

LP-Maker-Matheus full book — fleet's sole functioning liquidity hub healthy

BTC ask gap resolved w88 (intent #1278 at +15.1bps). 10/10 open quotes live. Deal count 96→102 (+6 this cycle). 5 reliable counterparties active. Deal velocity limited by taker arrivals, not LP quality — correct behavior for a thin taker side.

Open book: 10 LP-Maker intents across sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL/BTC/ETH/SSV/USDC pairs; recent deals: 6 LP-Maker fills this cycle per feed; watcher armed=true, nextFallbackMin=21, pidAlive=true

None. Highest-leverage improvement is restarting crashed counterparties (vulture-andrew, arb-hunter unblocking) to increase taker-side depth.

URGENT before 17:00 UTC Jun 11: operator decision on option-taker-matheus positions #118 (call, expires 17:37 UTC) and #119 (put, expires 18:31 UTC) — manually close or accept expiry; writer cannot supply before deadline

Restart vulture-andrew and bear-yosher now (no script edits needed). For stacker-massimo: patch MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH to Jun 11 values first, then restart

Verify deal #75 on-chain state — if oracle settled but board detail lags, fix the cache update path; if genuinely unsettled, trigger settlement and patch oracle auto-settlement module

Lower option-writer Engine 2 drift threshold from 5% to 2–3% or add a time-based fallback override — current threshold is ~10x from unlock in this low-vol regime, blocking 30% of fleet revenue

Track SSV oracle/CEX spread for arb-hunter-tom sign flip (currently inverted 23bps); no agent action needed but monitor for regime change that would unfreeze the counter at 11

Structurally unchanged from last run — bear-yosher (1052 min), vulture-andrew (853 min), and stacker-massimo (902 min) remain crashed with zero operator restarts; arb-hunter-tom deal counter still frozen at 11; new time pressure added: option-taker-matheus sNVDA positions expire today (call ~17:37 U

Three hard crashes persist: bear-yosher 1052 min, stacker-massimo 902 min, vulture-andrew 853 min — no operator restarts detected across any of the three

Option-taker-matheus sNVDA call #118 (expiry ~17:37 UTC Jun 11) and put #119 (~18:31 UTC Jun 11) expire TODAY — fleet has <8h window

Mimic-ljuba capital locked in 3 'live' deals with crashed bear-yosher (deal #75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 ≈ Jun 11 00:58 UTC, now 5+ h past expiry) — oracle auto-settlement has not cleared

LP-Maker-Matheus open book shrunk 11→10 intents (deals 96→102, +6 this cycle) — arb-hunter-tom accounts for 4 of those but deal counter reads frozen at 11; reconciliation needed

Rebalancer-lior imminent: nextFallbackMin=551, watch-loop fires ~13:30 UTC Jun 11 — next capital deployment event within hours

Option-writer-matheus both engines dormant ('Engine 2 locked' since w66) despite last wake only 5 min ago — blocking the 30% options revenue stream

Deal counter reads 11 and prior summary says frozen for 35+ wakes, yet 4 LP-Maker↔Arb-Hunter swaps appear in the recent-deals feed this cycle — are any of those new fills (counter now >11), or are all 4 pre-existing history entries the boar

Now 1052 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false unchanged — have any of the 3 expired 'live' deals (deal #75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624, plus 2 BinaryBets ↔ Mimic-Ljuba) cleared via oracle auto-settlement since last summary, and what is the m

21st consecutive null cycle — is there any new operator initialization signal, wallet provisioning event, or IndexBasket intent anywhere in the funnel this cycle, or is state bit-for-bit identical to prior?

21st consecutive null cycle — same question as index-maker: any new signal, wallet, or IndexBasket intent in the funnel? Confirm whether index-maker's continued dormancy is the sole structural blocker.

Deals ticked 96→102 (+6 this cycle, confirmed active hub) with open intents at 10 — which asset pairs are currently posted, are all major pairs (BTC/ETH/sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT/SSV) covered, and is there any sign of book thinning or mispricing th

Last wake 499 min ago but armed/pidAlive=true with nextFallbackMin=15 (imminent wake) — in the next wake, will it detect that the 3 bear↔mimic deals (including deal #75, expired ~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) have cleared or are still 'live'? Is capita

Open intent #1318 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV) has been resting since w22 — has it filled in the interim (deal count now 6, unchanged?), is SSV momentum still above threshold, and is the current price/sizing still mission-correct given the elapsed

sNVDA call #118 expires TODAY ~17:37 UTC Jun 11 and put #119 ~18:31 UTC Jun 11 — watcher is armed (nextFallbackMin=724, last wake 618 min ago), meaning the next scheduled wake is ~106 min from now (~after expiry for the call): will the agen

Last wake 5 min ago yet both engines dormant — what did w68+ log as the specific Engine 2 lock condition, and has any max-move threshold or unlock criterion been crossed since w67 that should have re-enabled posting?

nextFallbackMin=911 with last_wake=890 min ago → fallback fires in ~21 min (imminent); sAAPL has held within the $277.34–$303.75 band for 890 min — does the upcoming wake trigger a position review, and are today's option-taker expiries (sNV

nextFallbackMin=551 and prior summary projects 13:30 UTC watch-loop / 14:00 UTC fallback as next trigger — which asset is the pending rebalance slice targeting, and is the LP-Maker book currently offering a fillable rate for that asset?

Crashed 902 min; current.ts hardcodes stale Jun 10 epoch guards (MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200, MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000) — has the operator pushed a script fix or restart since last summary, and if not, what is the exact one-line chang

Last wake 18 min ago (active, wakes consistent) with budget confirmed ~44.2 USDC and nextFallbackMin=526 — did w30+ surface any new asset above the dislocation threshold, or is the no-trade streak continuing correctly?

Crashed 853 min, armed=false/pidAlive=false — LP-Maker's open book now has 10 live intents (sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL pairs) that Vulture would normally contest; has any operator restart occurred, and how many of LP-Maker's current asks

bear-yosher: operator restart required — 1052 min dark, 3 expired deals locking Mimic-Ljuba capital; check deal #75 + 2 BinaryBets for oracle clearance before restart

vulture-andrew: operator restart required — 853 min dark; LP-Maker's 10-intent open book (BTC/ETH/sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT/SSV) is uncontested and Vulture is the natural predator

stacker-massimo: fix stale epoch guards in current.ts (MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 are Jun 10 — update to today's epochs or remove the guard) before restart

option-taker-matheus: nextFallbackMin=724 means scheduled wake is ~after call #118 expiry (~17:37 UTC Jun 11) — verify watcher fires an early check before 17:37 UTC or force a manual wake now

Mimic-ljuba's 3 'live' deals with crashed bear-yosher (oldest 5+ h past expiry) have not oracle-settled — investigate whether the oracle settlement path is blocked or requires a manual trigger on the

option-writer-matheus: diagnose Engine 2 lock condition logged at w66 — both engines dormant simultaneously blocks all new option supply; determine if the lock is a price-band guard, a balance check,