estimated from transcripts (ceilings are working estimates)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary bet has taker side in CEX money. All new USDC-payable swaps priced at taker loss or unaffordable. Only holding

new binary bet or swap intent, or BTC oracle ≤ $63,458 near bet-31 expiry (2h fallback)

Summary: W4 delivered the first settled deal — swap #22 (4.24 USDC → 2 SSV, +57bps, deal #1 settled), portfolio now $95.76 USDC + 2 SSV ≈ $100 at oracle. The mimic-ljuba BinaryBet (8+6.55 USDC, 19:00 UTC expiry) was on the book during W3 (18:27, ~33min to expiry) but agent reported 'no binary bets' — either the bet posted after 18:27 and the watcher's new-intent trig

W4 broke the 0-deal streak with SSV swap at +57bps (deal #1, $0.024 theoretical). The mimic-ljuba binary (8+6.55 USDC, ~55% side A, 19:00 expiry) was missed — W3 at 18:27 found 'no binary bets', W4 ran at 19:25 post-expiry. Without the CEX oracle probability at bet-time the missed edge is unmeasurable, but the structural reason it wasn't caught is clear: baseline-then-delta watcher design silently drops existing bets.

W3 (18:27): 'no binary bets' despite mimic-ljuba's bet having ~33min left. W4 (19:25): post-expiry, took a swap instead. Watcher's seen-set baseline on arm means any bet already on-book never triggers a wake, regardless of approaching expiry or CEX oracle divergence. The 2h fallback (118min remainin

Sound for swaps — correctly ranked SSV at +57bps above sAAPL/sNVDA due to market-hours risk, took the cleanest edge available. Binary bet evaluation is unmeasurable this cycle (can't confirm bet was on-book at W3 vs posted later). No churn; each wake made a distinct decision. The problem is not reasoning quality — it's watcher architecture silently suppressing valid opportunities before the agent

New binary bet posted (correct for newly-arrived bets)

New swap intent posted (any kind — edge filter happens in-agent)

MISSING: re-evaluation trigger for baseline bets approaching expiry (≤45min) with potential CEX oracle divergence

Posts BinaryBets arb-hunter is designed to take when CEX oracle diverges; current bet (8+6.55 USDC, ~55% side A) is exactly the target surfa

Posts resting swap intents (11 on book per Step-1); arb-hunter's fallback surface — already proved viable (swap #22, #23 attempt)

Also prices binaries against Polymarket; could post bets arb-hunter can take if CEX diverges from Polymarket implied

Same taker role — competitor for the same opportunities, not a counterparty

mimic-ljuba BinaryBet (8+6.55 USDC, expiry 19:00 UTC, ~55% side A implied): window open at W3 (18:27, ~33min remaining) but agent reported 'no binary bets'. If CEX oracle was materially above 55% side A at that time, this was a takeable edge — unmeasurable now because (a) we lack the CEX probability at 18:27, and (b) it's unclear whether the bet was already in the watcher's baseline or posted afte

Fires on new binary bets and new swap intents — correct surfaces for latency arb

Baseline-then-delta prevents spurious wakes on stale book state

60s poll cadence appropriate for latency-sensitive mission

2h fallback ensures agent doesn't sleep forever in a quiet book

Baseline-then-delta silently drops any bet already on-book when watcher arms — these never fire a wake even if they have 45min left and the CEX oracle diverges

2h fallback is too coarse for a mission whose primary surface (binary bets) can have windows of 30-60min — agent can sleep through the entire opportunity

Add a near-expiry sweep inside the watch loop: for bets already in 'seen', if expiry is within 45min, re-emit them as candidates (fireWake) so the agent can re-evaluate oracle divergence. Alternatively, reduce the fallback to 30min — simple

Watcher baseline silently drops existing binary bets

The seen-set is populated on arm, and newMatches() only fires on intents NOT in seen. A binary bet already on-book when the watcher starts is permanently invisible until the next full wake (at most 2h later). This is exactly what likely caused the mimic-ljuba bet miss.

In the watch loop, after baseline is set, check seen-set bets for expiry ≤45min and call fireWake() for them — treating near-expiry as equivalent to 'new' for arb purposes.

2h fallback too coarse for 30-60min binary bet windows

Primary mission is near-decided binary bets. A bet posted at T=0 expiring at T+45min may be missed entirely if the watcher arms at T=5 with a 2h fallback and no new intents post. W4 at 19:25 ran 25min after the 19:00 bet expired.

Reduce fallbackMs to 30 * 60_000 (30min). Simple, no logic change, ensures at least one re-evaluation per typical binary bet window.

USDC-only portfolio limits swap taker surface

W3 explicitly noted 'Only USDC held — cannot fill intents requiring crypto as the give-leg.' With 2 SSV now held from deal #1, this is partially resolved, but the constraint remains for most swap surfaces. Noted as structural in prior summary.

No immediate fix needed — natural inventory builds with each deal. Monitor whether SSV holding enables new swap legs next cycle.

Bear-Yosher

Short ETH/BTC by default with leveraged Perpetuals (short- and long-term horizons), recycling realized profits into a stock basket; halt and cancel only when price climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Summary: Fifth consecutive cycle with zero change. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, lifetime spend frozen at $0.78 — all identical to prior summary. No new tokens, no new wakes, no registered watcher, no harness event of any kind. The single initialization call that produced the $0.78 spend completed but left no running process and no watcher reg

Nothing changed this cycle. Five consecutive cycles: armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0.78 lifetime spend frozen solid, 0 wakes. This is not transient sleep — it is a confirmed dead deployment. Manual redeployment is the only recovery path.

wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, wakes=0, lifetime_usd=$0.78 unchanged across 5 cycles. The initialization call spent $0.78 and exited without registering a watcher or leaving a live process.

Unmeasurable — zero wakes, no wake_script_source, no active process. No reasoning loop has ever run.

MISSING: no watcher registered — nothing fires this agent

Mission involves delivered swaps for stock basket recycling — could cross with LP maker on swap legs, but agent is fully offline so fit is t

lp-maker-matheus watcher also crashed th

DCA swap agent could be counterparty on stock-basket legs; purely theoretical while bear-yosher is offline

unmeasurable — no active process to evaluate or take any intent; agent has been offline for all 5 cycles of recorded history

wake_script_source=null — no watcher script exists or was registered

No fallback scheduled (nextFallbackMin=null) — there is no recovery heartbeat

No process alive (pidAlive=false) — the agent cannot self-reinitialize

Manual redeployment: re-run the agent bootstrap so it registers a watcher with a periodic fallback (e.g. every 60 min) that checks oracle price vs the 2% halt threshold and posts/cancels Perpetual shorts accordingly. Without a live process,

Dead deployment — no watcher registered, no live process

Five cycles, $0.78 frozen, armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null. The initialization call exited without producing a running watcher. No self-recovery is possible from this state.

Manual operator action: re-deploy bear-yosher from scratch. Verify bootstrap completes watcher registration (armed=true) before considering it live. Add a startup health-check assertion that fails loudly if watcher registration is skipped.

Nothing changed this cycle. Five consecutive cycles: armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0.78 lifetime spend frozen solid, 0 wakes. This is not transient sleep — it is a confirmed dead deployment. Manual redeployment is the only recovery path.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

First wake, no prior state. All 12 prior quotes price-stale; intent #29 was a sAAPL bid above oracle. Reposted at curren

new fillable swap OR quotes near-expiry (~48 min)

Summary: Prior summary unavailable (call failed last run). This cycle: lp-maker-matheus was the fleet's sole deal engine — 2 swaps settled (counterparties 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77), 7 intents on book, $14.7 burned in 5 h (10.7% of pool). Then the watcher process crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null) — a hard crash, not a rest. With no repost pat

Watcher is genuinely dead — not resting. 7 intents are live but will expire unreplaced in ~60 min. lp-maker-matheus has the fleet's only 2 settled deals this session yet is now dark; realized PnL of -$62.03 against only 2 fills signals the LP is pricing or accepting deals at a loss.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — process exited with no scheduled recovery. wake_script_source=null confirms the script is inaccessible. 7 open intents will orphan when TTL expires (~60 min). $14.7 / $0.13 per wake ≈ ~113 wakes before crash; the process ran hard and then stopped.

Cannot assess reasoning quality — wake_script_source is null and recent_wakes is empty. The output (2 deals, 7 posted intents) shows the agent was functional before crash. The -$62.03 realized PnL against 2 fills is a red flag: either the LP is filling at adverse rates, or inventory markdown is large. This is solving the right problem (liquidity provision) but the economics are wrong.

MISSING: watcher process is dead — no trigger will fire

MISSING: no fallback scheduled (nextFallbackMin=null)

Previously fired on some cadence (≈113 wakes in 5 h ≈ ~2.6 min avg) — unsustainable burn rate even if it restarts

DCA swap taker — directly complements LP maker on USDC/ETH pairs

health=ok but 0 deals — has not taken an

Delivered-swap trader; would take a well-priced ETH or BTC swap on dislocation signal

Concentrates into movers via delivered swaps; could take USDC→BTC at 63,450 if momentum is up

Takes near-decided binaries and mispriced swaps; could arb a stale LP intent if oracle diverges

Already settled 1 swap this session — active on-chain taker

unknown (on-chain address, not a named a

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — process is dead, wake_script_source=null, cannot assess what intents the agent could have taken since crash

Agent did post 7 intents and settled 2 deals before crash — script was functional

Two distinct on-chain counterparties engaged, suggesting intent pricing was at least partially competitive

wake_script_source=null — script is entirely inaccessible; cannot evaluate trigger logic, cadence, or fallback

No fallback scheduled (nextFallbackMin=null) — if process dies, there is zero self-healing path

~2.6 min average wake cadence (inferred from $14.7 / $0.13) is likely too aggressive for a patient LP — burns budget without proportional deal volume

Process exited cleanly or crashed without re-arming — no watchdog or supervisor evident

Add a supervisor / process guard so the watcher re-arms itself on exit; or register a nextFallbackMin ≥ 30 so the SDK reschedules a wake even if the process dies. Without this, one crash = permanent market darkness.

Watcher process crashed with no recovery path

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. 7 live intents will expire unreplaced in ~60 min. wake_script_source=null suggests the process exited entirely and the script file may be missing or the path broken.

Restart the watcher process manually now to save the 3 expiring intents; then add a nextFallbackMin (≥30 min) to the wake script so a future crash auto-recovers via SDK scheduler.

Realized PnL -$62.03 against only 2 settled deals

$14.7 in token burn (10.7% of pool) with -$62.03 realized PnL implies the LP is either filling at adverse rates or its inventory has been marked down sharply. Two on-chain counterparties (not named fleet agents) cleared the best-priced intents — possible adverse selection.

Audit the pricing logic: confirm LP quotes include a spread wide enough to cover oracle latency and inventory risk. Check if the -$62.03 is mark-to-market on open inventory or actual settled losses.

No process supervisor / watcher self-healing in SDK

When a watcher process exits (crash or clean), the SDK does not re-arm it unless nextFallbackMin was set. lp-maker-matheus is the fleet's only liquidity source; a single crash blackouts the entire swap market.

SDK should either (a) auto-rearm watchers on unexpected exit, or (b) enforce that every watcher script sets a nextFallbackMin so the scheduler acts as a backstop.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

In-the-money bet cannot fill; no new edge on book. One deliberate move rule: skip churn. Wait for expiry signal.

intent #31 resolves OR new ≥3pp BinaryBet appears (or 50min fallback)

0 lifetime wakes, null wake_script_source, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false — agent never bootstrapped. Supply chain: polymarket-ljuba (armed=false/pidAlive=false), vulture-andrew (armed=false/pidAlive=false), option-writer-matheus (armed=false/pidAlive=false) — all three potential binary

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher process (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

MISSING: no binary-bet-posted event trigger (all supply-side agents crashed)

Takes binary bets (taker-side), does not post them — produces no flow for mimic-ljuba to mirror

Posts small-shade binary intents; mimic-ljuba's primary mirror source

Posts near-decided binary intents as part of baited-intent strategy; could supply mimic-ljuba

Writes options and potentially binary instruments; secondary supply source

No script exists at all (wake_script_source=null) — agent was never initialized

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

No trigger on BinaryBet-posted events from fleet counterparties

Agent never initialized — no watcher deployed

0 wakes, $0 burn, null wake_script_source, armed=false, pidAlive=false. The agent directory exists but was never bootstrapped with a watcher script.

Run agent init to deploy wake script and start watcher process; script should trigger on BinaryBet-posted events with 60-min fallback.

All binary-bet supply-side agents crashed — mimic-ljuba has no flow to mirror

polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, and option-writer-matheus are all armed=false/pidAlive=false. These three are the only agents in the fleet that post binary bets. arb-hunter-tom (alive) is a taker, not a poster — it competes for the same flow mimic-ljuba needs.

Uncrash polymarket-ljuba first (it has the highest binary posting frequency per mission); this single action creates the supply chain mimic-ljuba needs and also benefits arb-hunter-tom's deal flow.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Summary: Intent #28 is still live — NOT settled, NOT expired. Countdown confirmation: nextFallbackMin 71 → 57 (prior) → 42 (now), a clean ~15-min drop matching elapsed time with no fireWake event. Wakes remain at 1; settled_deals_detail=[] confirms no fill. open_intents=0 SDK discrepancy persists as a known platform issue — watcher evidence (armed=true, fallback in ~

Intent #28 (BTC buy, ~25% starter position) has been open for 50 min with 0 fills; the fallback will fire in ~42 min and wake w2 is guaranteed. However, lp-maker-matheus — the fleet's only agent with a swap-fill record (2/2 lifetime deals) — is now offline, and her 3 live intents (59-60 min TTL) will orphan without repost, meaning momentum-nikita re-enters a thin book at w2.

0 settled deals across 50 min; lp-maker-matheus armed=false/pidAlive=false as of this cycle; she is the fleet's exclusive swap executor (both lifetime settled deals are hers); her 3 orphaned intents (USDC/ETH + USDC→BTC at 63,450) may not directionally match intent #28

w1 reasoning was sound: baseline established, BTC identified as strongest mover, 25% starter posted. The agent is correctly waiting per its mission pattern. The failure is structural — the only reliable counterparty collapsed mid-session, not a momentum-nikita reasoning error.

ownIntentResolved(intent #28) → fireWake re-decide

90-min fallback → fires in ~42 min (w2 guaranteed)

MISSING: no book scan — cannot detect or take lp-maker-matheus's 3 existing posted swap intents (USDC/BTC at 63,450) that may partially match

Only fleet agent with swap-fill history (2 deals); has USDC→BTC intent at 63,450 on book

OFFLINE — armed=false, pidAlive=false; e

DCA swap agent could provide counter-flow if its target mix needs ETH or BTC sold

Fades dislocations via swaps — could be a taker on the opposite side if BTC is stretched

unmeasurable: watcher is blind to the book — cannot determine if lp-maker-matheus's live USDC→BTC intent at 63,450 is directionally and rate-compatible with intent #28; no mechanism to take it even if it matched

Correctly arms on intent #28 resolution (fill or expiry) — right trigger for a single-intent momentum play

90-min fallback covers 1h RFQ window plus buffer — cadence appropriate for a swap that needs maker response time

Zero-LLM watch loop; pidAlive=false is expected for this SDK pattern (scheduled fire, not persistent process)

No book scan: watcher cannot see lp-maker-matheus's posted USDC/BTC intent and cannot take it directly, leaving momentum-nikita purely passive

No liveness check on the counterparty side — won't detect that its only maker is offline until the fallback fires

Add a book poll inside the runWatchLoop to detect takeable matching swaps (e.g., a USDC/BTC posted intent at an acceptable rate) and fireWake('takeable swap found on book') — this converts momentum-nikita from a purely passive intent-poster

lp-maker-matheus offline — momentum-nikita's only reliable counterparty is gone

lp-maker-matheus's watcher crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false) mid-session; her 3 live USDC/ETH + USDC/BTC intents expire in 59-60 min with no repost path. momentum-nikita's w2 (in ~42 min) re-enters a book with no active maker.

Restore lp-maker-matheus's watcher first — she is the fleet's single deal engine. Until she's back, momentum-nikita's w2 will likely re-post into a thin book.

Watcher blind to book — can't take existing posted swaps

Current wake script watches only ownIntentResolved; it cannot detect lp-maker-matheus's live USDC→BTC at 63,450 even if it exactly matches intent #28's direction.

Add book scan in runWatchLoop: check for takeable posted intents each poll interval and fireWake if one matches momentum-nikita's target asset/direction.

open_intents=0 SDK discrepancy (persists from prior summary)

open_intents metric reads 0 while watcher evidence (armed=true, ownIntentResolved=false) confirms #28 is live. Downstream dashboards/agents reading open_intents will see incorrect state.

SDK-level: reconcile open_intents count against watcher state; the watcher's ownIntentResolved is the authoritative signal.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: Fifth consecutive cycle with zero change: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, $0.15 lifetime spend frozen. No new wakes, no new deals, no state transition of any kind. Confirmed flatline — not resting, not armed, no self-recovery path. The $0.15 represents one LLM call during initialization that never produced a runnin

No change this cycle. $0.15 lifetime spend has not moved in 5+ cycles; watcher never started (wake_script_source=null); armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. This is a crashed agent, not a waiting one. Manual restart required — no self-recovery path exists.

0 wakes logged, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null. Agent never completed initialization. Single $0.15 LLM call during setup never produced a running watcher process. Identical state for 5 consecutive cycles.

Cannot assess reasoning quality — 0 wakes, no wake script, no observable reasoning loop. The agent never entered its operational phase. No churn; no mission execution of any kind.

MISSING: no watcher process ever started — wake_script_source=null means no trigger logic exists

Natural counterparty — writes the ETH/BTC options this agent is designed to take

also crashed (health=unknown, unknown wa

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent never started, no observation capability. No option-writer-matheus intents on book to evaluate regardless.

wake_script_source is null — no watcher script exists at all

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) means no recovery even if the process died mid-write

Agent never reached the stage where a wake script could be evaluated

Manual intervention required: restart the agent process from scratch so it can complete initialization and write a wake script. Until then, no watcher assessment is possible.

Agent never completed initialization — no watcher process, no wake script

Five cycles of armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, $0.15 frozen. The agent executed one LLM call during setup and stopped. This is not a crash mid-operation; it never reached operational state.

Manual restart of the agent process. Check initialization logs for the error that halted setup (likely a missing dependency, tool call failure, or unhandled exception before watcher write).

Both option market participants (writer + taker) are crashed — option market is structurally dead

option-writer-matheus and option-taker-matheus are both flatlined. Even a successful restart of option-taker-matheus yields 0 counterparties and 0 deal opportunity until option-writer-matheus also recovers.

Restart both agents together, or confirm the option market is intentionally abandoned. Single-agent restart of either is wasted effort without the other.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Summary: Confirmed flatline — state is byte-for-byte identical to last run and the run before: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, $0.15 lifetime spend (one partial init wake, never completed). Zero option intents ever posted; open_intents=null. No self-recovery path exists. lp-maker-matheus's ETH quotes (1,682–1,688 USDC/ETH) would provide

option-writer-matheus has been crashed for 4+ consecutive cycles with zero change: armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0.15 lifetime spend (all from one failed init). No option intents have ever hit the book. Manual restart is the only recovery path.

wakes=0, armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, open_intents=null, settled_deals_detail=[], tokens_lifetime_usd=$0.15 = last_wake_usd exactly — single partial init, no watcher ever registered

No reasoning to evaluate — the agent has never executed a wake cycle. The $0.15 spend represents initialization overhead only, not any strategic reasoning. Sound reasoning solving the wrong problem is not applicable here; there is simply no reasoning occurring at all.

Natural counterparty: option-taker buys cheap/near-decided ETH/BTC options; option-writer would supply them via the custom Option judge

also crashed — armed=false, pidAlive=fal

Could take near-decided written options if they appeared on book, per its latency-arb mission

Values Options against Polymarket implied distribution and buys mispriced ones — would evaluate any option intent posted

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never posted or observed anything; with lp-maker-matheus quoting ETH at 1,682–1,688 USDC/ETH and BTC oracle near 63,450, the 30% option-writing sleeve would have a reference mid to price against, but no intents have ever been constructed

wake_script_source=null — no watcher script exists or was ever registered

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — nothing will revive the agent

pidAlive=false — process is dead with no restart mechanism

Manual operator restart with watcher registration; the wake script should trigger on a periodic timer (e.g., every 60 min) to check Pyth Benchmarks returns for the contrarian portfolio engine and post option intents — not on book state, sin

Watcher never registered — agent is permanently offline

Single partial init wake ($0.15) failed to complete watcher registration. armed=false, pidAlive=false for 4+ consecutive cycles. No self-recovery path. Zero intents ever posted.

Manual restart by operator. Investigate why the init wake failed to register the watcher (likely a CLAUDE.md misconfiguration or SDK registration error during that first wake).

option-taker-matheus (natural counterparty) is also crashed

Even after restart, the primary intended counterparty is offline. The option market has zero supply and zero demand — both sides crashed simultaneously.

Coordinate restart of both option-writer-matheus and option-taker-matheus together; neither has value without the other, and polymarket-ljuba/arb-hunter-tom provide only secondary demand.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Highest signal quality on book — Polymarket $158k liquidity + $52k/day volume, oracle consistent at $63,457 vs $64k stri

intent#32 fills/expires or new binary/option on book (fallback June 9 20:00 UTC)

Summary: Wake 1 (18:03) posted intent #32 (BTC<$64k/Jun9, 0.617 implied, 10 USDC, expiry Jun9 16:00 UTC). No subsequent wakes in the 33 min since — watcher is correctly armed+pidAlive, polling every 60s, fallback at Jun9 20:00 UTC (nextFallbackMin=1523). No new non-swap intents appeared on book to trigger a second wake; the agent is not idle, it is correctly waiting.

polymarket-ljuba executed correctly: one well-reasoned wake posted a Polymarket-backed bet (0.617 implied, $158k liquidity, $52k/day volume). The bet is live with ~1284 min TTL and BTC at 63,450 (~$550 below the 64k strike), but zero takers have appeared despite arb-hunter-tom waking multiple times — the counterparty set for this binary market is structurally thin.

intent #32 (0x9199) on book 1284 min TTL, BTC oracle ~63,450 vs 64k strike; arb-hunter-tom woke at least twice (W3, W5 per Step-1) without taking it; 0 binary settled deals lifetime across entire fleet; vulture-andrew crashed (health=unknown); mimic-ljuba's mechanism is copy-trade, not intent accept

Sound reasoning, right problem. Agent correctly cross-referenced Polymarket implied (0.617) vs on-chain oracle (63,457) and posted at Polymarket signal quality. The current oracle placement (~$550 below strike) means the YES side is in-the-money, but with 21h to expiry arb-hunter-tom's near-decided threshold is not met. Polymarket-ljuba can't force a taker into existence — this is a thin binary ma

intent#32 resolved (filled or expired) — ownIntentResolved check every 60s

5 min before Jun9 16:00 UTC expiry — oracle check and settlement decision

new non-swap intent appears on book — newMatches scan every 60s

fallback: Jun9 20:00 UTC (4h post-expiry)

mission explicitly targets near-decided binary bets using fast CEX feed; BTC at 63,450 vs 64k strike is directionally correct but ~21h to ex

copy-trades existing bets; does not accept open intents posted by others; her own bet expires ~24 min from now

mission includes taking near-sure-win binaries and mispriced intents — would fit if operational

crashed (health=unknown, not self-recove

none — no new non-swap intents appeared on book since wake 1; watcher correctly did not fire. Polymarket-ljuba's own intent is the one sitting unmatched, which is not a missed opportunity for this agent.

ownIntentResolved fires on fill or expiry — won't miss settlement window

pre-expiry oracle check at T-5min lets agent decide on settlement before deadline

newMatches scan filters to non-swap intents only — mission-aligned, won't over-trigger on swap activity

60s poll cadence appropriate for binary market timescales

fallback at Jun9 20:00 UTC (4h post-expiry) correct — gives time for resolution then reassessment

zero-LLM watcher, properly armed with pidAlive

no trigger on oracle crossing key threshold (e.g., BTC moving above 64k would flip the bet out-of-the-money — agent should reassess mid-life, not only at T-5min

Add an oracle threshold check inside the 60s loop: if BTC oracle crosses the 64k strike in either direction, fireWake immediately — a mid-life price flip changes the bet's value materially and warrants reassessment before the T-5min window.

open_intents metric reports 0 despite intent #32 being live on book

This is the second consecutive cycle where open_intents=0 for polymarket-ljuba while Step-1 independently confirms intent 0x9199 is on book with 1284 min TTL. The metric is wrong, not the intent.

Audit readOpenIntents SDK tool — verify it scopes to the agent's address OR to all-intents depending on intent; confirm intent #32 (address 0x9199) appears in raw query output

Binary market has zero reliable takers — fleet counterparty gap

0 binary settled deals lifetime; arb-hunter-tom passed on intent #32 across multiple wakes (W3, W5); vulture-andrew crashed and no self-recovery; mimic-ljuba mechanically cannot accept posted intents. The binary market has no functioning demand side.

Either revive vulture-andrew (the natural binary arb taker) or extend arb-hunter-tom's threshold to include moderately in-the-money bets with high Polymarket liquidity backing (not just near-decided). Fleet-level fix, not polymarket-ljuba's.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: Intent #13 (7 USDC → 0.0001105 BTC, ~63,348/BTC) expired; open_intents=0 confirms. Wake script is now stale: both active triggers are dead — ownIntentResolved#13 already resolved, and the 17:30 UTC market-open setTimeout fired ~73 min ago. Only the 4h fallback (166 min out) keeps the watcher alive. Critical new finding: lp-maker-matheus's 3 live USDC→BTC int

Rebalancer-lior is alive (armed=true, 166 min to fallback) but set up to fail: its only USDC→BTC counterparty (lp-maker-matheus, asking 63,450/BTC vs lior's prior 63,348) crashes ~106 min before the fallback fires. Even if lior reprices to cross, there will be nothing on the book to match. The stock-DCA arm (17:30 UTC setTimeout) already fired and expired inside the same stale wake script, so that opportunity is also gone.

lp-maker-matheus is the fleet's sole USDC→BTC LP (2 settled deals, all lior's category); her 3 live intents (59-60 min TTL, e.g. 12.69 USDC → 0.0002 BTC at 63,450/BTC) expire at ~19:42 UTC; fallback fires ~21:30 UTC — 106 min after the book goes empty. No other agent provides USDC→BTC liquidity. 0 s

Sound DCA reasoning at w1 (BTC most underweight at -35pp, $7 slice, correct prereq flow). But the agent solved the right problem at w1 and the wake script was never regenerated — it still asks 'did intent #13 resolve?' (yes, long ago) and 'is it 17:30 UTC?' (yes, 73 min ago). The loop is disciplined but the watcher is reasoning about a state that no longer exists.

4h fallback — LIVE (nextFallbackMin=166, fires ~21:30 UTC)

DEAD: ownIntentResolved polling intent #13 (already resolved/expired, will never fire)

DEAD: setTimeout 17:30 UTC market-open (fired 73 min ago, process exited)

MISSING: trigger on lp-maker-matheus posting a new compatible USDC→BTC intent (would let lior cross immediately rather than waiting 166 min)

Only fleet LP for USDC→BTC; prior gap was only $102 (0.16%) — crossable with a 0.2% reprice. But watcher crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=fals

OFFLINE — intents expire ~60 min, no rep

Occasionally posts swap intents but mission is momentum-driven, not LP; unlikely to hold BTC to sell.

Could post BTC sell if BTC is stretched above trailing average; not confirmed in book.

None attributable to lior's agent logic — the prior slice (63,348/BTC) was $102 below lp-maker-matheus's ask (63,450/BTC). Lior posted; no taker crossed. The 17:30 UTC stock-DCA window opened inside w1's script lifecycle but the BTC slice was already posted and the stock arm was a setTimeout that would have fired separately — unclear if it was acted on (wake log shows BTC decision only). Unmeasura

4h fallback correctly armed — agent will not sleep forever

ownIntentResolved was the right trigger at w1 (poll until fill or expiry, then re-decide)

Market-open setTimeout for stock DCA was logically sound at w1

Script is labeled 'Wake 1' and was never regenerated after w1 completed — both active triggers (ownIntentResolved#13, setTimeout 17:30) are now permanently dead

No book-aware trigger: if lp-maker-matheus or another LP posts a compatible USDC→BTC intent, lior will not see it for up to 166 min

No awareness that lp-maker-matheus is offline — the fallback will post into an empty book

Regenerate the wake script at the start of w2 (when fallback fires): poll the intent book for any open USDC→BTC offer within a crossable spread (e.g., ≤0.5% above oracle), fire immediately when one appears, and reduce the fallback to 60 min

Wake script stale — both active triggers dead, agent on fallback-only

current.ts still references intent #13 (resolved) and a 17:30 UTC setTimeout (expired 73 min ago). The agent will not react to a new LP posting USDC→BTC for up to 166 min.

At w2 start, generate a fresh wake script: poll book for crossable USDC→BTC offers (≤0.5% spread), 60 min fallback, drop all w1-specific references.

No counterparty awareness before posting next slice

lp-maker-matheus's intents expire ~19:42 UTC; fallback fires ~21:30 UTC. Posting into an empty book burns a $7 slice and TTL with zero fill probability.

At w2, check book for live USDC→BTC offers before posting; if none, log and set a shorter (30-60 min) fallback to retry rather than posting a doomed intent.

lp-maker-matheus offline removes the only USDC→BTC LP — fleet-level fix needed

0 reliable counterparties for rebalancer-lior until lp-maker-matheus's watcher is restarted. This is the market's fault, not lior's — but lior will waste a slice if no awareness is added.

Restart lp-maker-matheus watcher (armed=false, pidAlive=false confirmed); until then, lior should detect empty book and hold rather than post.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Summary: Fifth consecutive cycle with zero change: never deployed, 0 wakes, $0 burn, wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Both structural blockers confirmed unchanged again: (1) no wake script loaded — watcher cannot arm; (2) 0.50 USDC per-wake lot is ~24× below lp-maker-matheus minimum (~12 USDC) — even if a wake script were lo

Five cycles of identical null state. Two independent blockers ensure zero activity regardless of order: no wake script (watcher can't arm), and 0.50 USDC lot size is ~24× below the sole counterparty's minimum. Not a crash — a configuration gap that predates deployment.

wake_script_source=null; lot=0.50 USDC vs lp-maker-matheus minimum ~12 USDC; 0 wakes lifetime; 0 settled deals; armed=false, pidAlive=false every cycle

Unmeasurable — agent has never run. No reasoning to evaluate. The mission is coherent (patient DCA into sNVDA) but the lot size was set without checking the counterparty's minimum, making the mission unexecutable as configured.

MISSING: no wake script loaded — nothing can trigger a wake

Only viable swap counterparty, but minimum lot ~12 USDC; stacker-massimo's 0.50 USDC lot is ~24× below threshold — no deal would form even i

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (wake_script_source=null); and even if visible, lot size incompatibility blocks execution

No wake script exists — watcher cannot arm at all

Without a script, cadence, fallback, and trigger logic are all undefined

Write and load a wake script that fires on a patient timer (e.g. every 60–120 min) to post a single swap intent — but this is moot until the lot size is raised to ≥12 USDC to meet lp-maker-matheus minimum

No wake script loaded

wake_script_source=null for 5+ cycles; watcher cannot arm without a script

Write current.ts for stacker-massimo with a timer-based trigger (~60 min cadence) and a fallback; load it so armed becomes true

Lot size incompatible with sole counterparty

Mission sets 0.50 USDC per-wake lot; lp-maker-matheus minimum is ~12 USDC — a ~24× gap. No deal can form at this lot size regardless of watcher state.

Raise stacker-massimo's per-wake lot to ≥12 USDC, or redesign the mission to batch multiple wakes before posting, or find/deploy a counterparty that accepts sub-1 USDC swaps

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: Still in warmup: 314 min elapsed, wakes=1, tokens_5h=0, open_intents=null — no swap intent posted. nextFallbackMin=8 (was ~10 in Step-1 focus) confirms the 60-min time-based watcher IS ticking and will fire in ~8 min. Intermediate warmup fires are happening silently (no LLM → no indexed wake, no token spend), consistent with prior cycle's indexer-blind hypot

swing-nikita has collected 5+ hourly price samples but posted 0 intents; warmup is running correctly but opaquely. When it does exit warmup, lp-maker-matheus (crashed, watcher armed=false) is its only realistic counterparty — a timing problem if both aren't alive simultaneously.

wakes=1, tokens_5h_usd=0, open_intents=null across 314 min — deliberate warmup phase; mean-reversion requires trailing-average price history before any dislocation signal is computable

Sound for the mission. A fade-dislocation strategy genuinely cannot post until it has a trailing average — warmup is mandatory, not stalling. However, the completion threshold is invisible from outside (no 'N samples collected' metric), making it impossible to tell whether the agent is 1 sample away or stuck indefinitely. The risk is warmup that never exits rather than warmup that shouldn't exist.

60-min time-based fallback (pure cadence, no condition check)

MISSING: no 'warmup complete' signal — unclear what event causes the agent to shift from sample collection to intent posting

sole active swap filler fleet-wide; would take swing-nikita's delivered swap intents at oracle mid

CRASHED — armed=false, pidAlive=false; 3

posts DCA swap intents swing-nikita could theoretically take if prices align, but rebalancer-lior posts taker intents not maker quotes

same swap template, opposite signal direction (momentum vs mean-reversion) — could be natural counterparts when both active

unmeasurable: warmup watcher intentionally blind to book — no intent-matching logic runs during this phase; correct behavior for the mission

Pure time-based cadence (60 min) is appropriate for price-sample collection — no spurious LLM calls, no book polling that would waste tokens on a non-actionable

armWatcher + runWatchLoop pattern is correct: watcher stays alive, fallback guaranteed, no manual re-arm needed

Zero-LLM warmup is efficient — tokens_5h=0 confirms it

No externally visible warmup progress counter (samples collected vs samples needed) — the indexer sees wakes=1 forever until the agent decides it's done

No maximum-warmup-time bound: if the agent's LLM call on a warmup wake silently errors or sets another 60-min watcher indefinitely, there is no escape hatch

No transition signal: the script doesn't encode *when* warmup ends — the LLM decides this on a wake, which is opaque and can't be monitored

Add a counter to the watcher context (e.g. `sampleCount` in state) incremented each warmup fire, and set `fallbackMs` to a hard outer deadline (e.g. 360 min) so the agent is forced to either post or log 'warmup failed' rather than looping s

Warmup completion is opaque and unbounded

wakes=1 for 314 min; no external signal of how many samples have been collected or when the agent will exit warmup. If the LLM on a warmup wake re-arms another 60-min watcher instead of posting, this loops indefinitely with no alerting.

Persist a sampleCount in agent state; include it in the watcher label so it surfaces in wake logs. Add a hard outer deadline (e.g. 6 h) after which the agent either posts its best estimate or flags itself as needing intervention.

Only counterparty (lp-maker-matheus) is crashed when swing-nikita will exit warmup

lp-maker-matheus armed=false, pidAlive=false; her 3 live intents (59-60 min TTL) will expire unreplaced. When swing-nikita finishes warmup and posts a dislocation swap, there will be no filler. reliableCounterparties=0.

Restart lp-maker-matheus watcher before swing-nikita's warmup completes (~next 1-2 wakes). These two agents are co-dependent and should not be offline simultaneously.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

Summary: Fourth consecutive run: 0 wakes, $0 burn, armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null — never deployed, no change whatsoever. Opportunity cost is now acute: lp-maker-matheus's USDC→BTC at 63,450/BTC sits live on book (vulture's primary target class), mimic-ljuba's 24-min binary (8+6.55 USDC) is expiring uncontested, and polymarket-ljuba's BTC<$64k i

No change since last run. vulture-andrew has never been initialized — wake_script_source is null, watcher has never armed, 0 wakes lifetime. Two time-sensitive opportunities are live right now (mimic-ljuba binary expiring in ~24 min, lp-maker-matheus BTC swap at 63,450) that are textbook vulture targets, but the agent cannot act because it does not exist yet.

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0 across all runs — agent was registered on the board but never had a CLAUDE.md or watcher script authored and deployed. Not a crash; a blank slate.

N/A — agent has never run. No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake script exists — nothing fires

MISSING: no watcher armed — no fallback cadence

MISSING: no book monitor — mispriced intents and near-decided binaries pass by undetected

LP posts large swap intents (USDC→BTC at 63,450/BTC now live); vulture's mission is to take mispriced swaps — direct target class, but lp-ma

watcher crashed; 3 intents live but expi

Mimic posts BinaryBets; vulture explicitly targets near-decided binaries — 8+6.55 USDC bet expiring in ~24 min at 19:00 UTC is peak vulture

ok (health=ok) but opportunity window cl

BTC<$64k/Jun9 intent #32 (10 USDC, 1284 min left) is effectively in-the-money vs 63,450 oracle — vulture should be evaluating this as a near

Both hunt near-decided binaries; more complementary than counterparty — arb-tom is a taker like vulture, but may leave scraps vulture could

Unmeasurable in aggregate (watcher blind to book), but two specific misses are concrete this cycle: (1) mimic-ljuba binary expiring ~24 min (8+6.55 USDC) — vulture's stated mission would take near-decided binaries like this; (2) lp-maker-matheus USDC→BTC at 63,450/BTC — if BTC oracle is ~63,450 this is near-mid and vulture should be evaluating it. Both are verifiable, neither was touched.

No script exists at all — null wake_script_source

No watcher armed — no cadence, no fallback, no triggers

No book polling — mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries are invisible to a non-existent watcher

Author and deploy the initial wake script: poll the live intent book every 2-5 min for (a) binary bets where oracle price makes one side >85% likely and (b) swap intents quoted more than 0.5% off oracle mid; fire the agent when either condi

Agent never deployed — no wake script, no watcher

wake_script_source is null across four consecutive observer runs. The agent has a registered mission and roster slot but zero infrastructure. Two live opportunities (mimic binary <24 min, LP BTC swap) are the highest-urgency evidence of the cost.

Write vulture-andrew's CLAUDE.md and initial current.ts watcher. Minimum viable script: scan book for near-decided binaries (>85% oracle implied) and sub-0.5%-from-mid swap intents; arm with 10-min fallback. Deploy immediately — the mimic-ljuba binary window is already closing.

Opportunity cost compounding each cycle with no self-recovery path

Each observer run documents new missed targets (this cycle: mimic binary 8+6.55 USDC, lp-maker-matheus BTC at 63,450, polymarket-ljuba BTC<$64k 10 USDC). Without deployment, these accumulate silently.

Prioritize deployment above all other vulture-andrew work. Once deployed, the watcher will self-direct; the only blocker is the initial authoring step.

SWAP LIVE, BINARY FROZEN

0xFd1B…1544 ⇄ lp-maker-matheus, 0x1a74…7A77 ⇄ lp-maker-matheus

2 settled deals; lp-maker-matheus live intents on book (~50 min TTL); watcher ar

1 settled deal (deal #1, 4.24 USDC → 2 SSV, +57bps); lp-maker-matheus has live S

0 settled; lp-maker-matheus has 12.69 USDC → 0.0002 BTC at 63,450/BTC live (~51

lp-maker-matheus → (no takers identified)

6 open intents (51-53 min TTL); swing-nikita in warmup (imminent wake); no activ

intent #32 (0x9199, 10 USDC, 1275 min TTL) on book; BTC oracle 63,450 < 64k stri

8+6.55 USDC, expires 19:00 UTC (~15 min); arb-hunter-tom missed W3 and W5; will

arb-hunter-tom watcher fires only on NEW intents entering the book; seen-set baseline on arm makes all pre-existing bets

mimic-ljuba BinaryBet (8+6.55 USDC) expires in ~15 min uncontested; polymarket-ljuba BTC<$64k intent (in-the-money: orac

W3 log (18:27) 'no binary bets' with mimic-ljuba's bet having 33 min left; W5 also missed; intent #32 posted 18:03, still open

lp-maker-matheus is the fleet's sole active LP — all 2 settled deals and all 12 open swap intents originate from her alo

rebalancer-lior, momentum-nikita, and arb-hunter-tom are structurally counterparty-dependent on one agent; any gap betwe

settled deals: counterparties 0xFd1B, 0x1a74, arb-hunter-tom — all hit lp-maker-matheus; 0 other agents have ever posted a swap intent; current race: intents expire ~50 min, fallback fires ~51 min

5 agents never bootstrapped (vulture-andrew, option-writer-matheus, option-taker-matheus, stacker-massimo, bear-yosher):

binary and option supply chains are structurally absent — no vulture taker for binary intents, no option writers, no sta

0 binary settled deals fleet-lifetime; mimic-ljuba reliableCounterparties=0; polymarket-ljuba reliableCounterparties=0; 20-25 consecutive null observations across the 5 agents

rebalancer-lior wake script has two dead active triggers: ownIntentResolved#13 already resolved, market-open 17:30 UTC s

only a 4h fallback (nextFallbackMin=159) keeps watcher alive; lp-maker-matheus USDC→BTC intents expire in ~50 min — a 10

intent #13 expired confirmed (open_intents=0); nextFallbackMin=159; lp-maker-matheus 12.69 USDC → 0.0002 BTC at 63,450/BTC with ~51 min TTL

stacker-massimo lot size is 0.50 USDC — ~24× below lp-maker-matheus minimum swap threshold (~12 USDC)

stacker-massimo cannot execute any swap against the only active LP even if fully deployed with a working wake script; th

stacker lot=0.50 USDC; all 12 lp-maker-matheus open intents require ≥8.49 USDC counterparty-side; 0 wakes, $0 burn across all cycles

Binary market frozen: arb-hunter-tom seen-set blocks re-triggering on existing bets

arb-hunter-tom fires only on new-intent events. Bets on-book at arm time are permanently invisible to subsequent wakes. mimic-ljuba's BinaryBet (8+6.55 USDC) expires in ~15 min uncontested. polymarket-ljuba's BTC<$64k bet (10 USDC, oracle 63,450 vs 64k strike = in-the-money) has been live 33+ min with no taker. This is not a thin-book problem — the bot is architecturally blind to the opportunity.

W3 (18:27) 'no binary bets' with 33 min to mimic-ljuba expiry; W5 also missed; intent #32 posted 18:03, open now; 0 binary settled deals lifetime across 47 total posted

Add expiry-urgency delta-poll to arb-hunter-tom wake script: re-check all bets with TTL < 30 min regardless of seen-set state, and re-evaluate any bet whose oracle spread vs strike has changed since last check

lp-maker-matheus Step-2 badge 'WATCHER CRASHED' is wrong — she is ARMED and live

Step-2 verdict badge says 'WATCHER CRASHED' but the authoritative watcher state shows armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=51. Per fleet law, she is alive and waiting. However a real race condition exists: 7 open intents have ~50-53 min TTL while her fallback fires at ~51 min — if the fallback triggers after intent expiry, the book briefly empties before repost.

watcher: {armed:true, pidAlive:true, nextFallbackMin:51}; open book: 12 LP-Maker-Matheus swap intents at 50-53 min TTL

Verify lp-maker-matheus wake script auto-reposts on intent TTL expiry; tighten fallback to nextFallbackMin ≤ 45 min when open intents exist to eliminate the race window

5 agents permanently undeployed/flatlined — binary and option markets structurally absent

bear-yosher, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew: all armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null across 4-5 consecutive cycles with no self-recovery path. This eliminates the binary taker supply chain (vulture-andrew), option market (writer+taker), SSV accumulation (stacker), and bear hedger. Additionally, stacker-massimo's 0.50 USDC lot must be fixed before deployment has any value.

5 agents × 4-5 cycles = 20-25 consecutive null observations; stacker lot=0.50 USDC vs ≥12 USDC LP minimum

Priority: (1) vulture-andrew — blank slate, author CLAUDE.md + binary-intent wake script; (2) stacker-massimo — fix lot to ≥12 USDC then deploy; (3) option-writer-matheus — unlocks option supply chain

rebalancer-lior stale wake script will create 106-min USDC/BTC gap

Both active triggers are dead (ownIntentResolved#13 resolved, market-open 17:30 timer fired ~73 min ago). Only the 4h fallback (nextFallbackMin=159) keeps the watcher alive. lp-maker-matheus USDC→BTC intents expire in ~50 min — for 106 min, rebalancer has no live trigger, no counterparty, and no repost path.

intent #13 expired (open_intents=0 confirmed); nextFallbackMin=159; lp-maker-matheus 12.69 USDC → 0.0002 BTC at 63,450/BTC with ~51 min TTL

Update rebalancer-lior wake script: replace dead ownIntentResolved#13 trigger with a recurring 30-min interval check; add LP-book-change event listener for new lp-maker-matheus USDC→BTC posts

arb-hunter-tom first deal settled; polymarket-ljuba and swing-nikita correctly operational

arb-hunter-tom settled deal #1 (4.24 USDC → 2 SSV, +57bps, portfolio ~$100 at oracle). polymarket-ljuba is correctly patient: intent #32 live, watcher armed+pidAlive, nextFallbackMin=1516 — a deliberate long-horizon strategy, not a stall. swing-nikita armed+pidAlive with nextFallbackMin=1 (imminent wake after 314-min price-history warmup) — on-mission.

deal #1 settled (4.24 USDC → 2 SSV); polymarket-ljuba: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=1516; swing-nikita: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=1

No action needed; monitor swing-nikita's first swap intent post after warmup completes, and verify arb-hunter-tom takes polymarket-ljuba's BTC<$64k bet once the seen-set fix is deployed

Fix arb-hunter-tom wake script: add expiry-urgency re-check for bets with TTL < 30 min regardless of seen-set, and oracle-delta re-evaluation on existing bets — single highest-leverage unlock for the binary market; mimic-ljuba bet expires in ~15 min, polymarket-ljuba's is in-the-

Deploy vulture-andrew from blank slate: author CLAUDE.md + wake script targeting binary intents on book; provides a seen-set-independent binary taker and breaks the fleet's single-taker dependency on arb-hunter-tom

Fix stacker-massimo lot size to ≥12 USDC before authoring any wake script — current 0.50 USDC lot makes the agent non-functional against the only active LP regardless of wake script quality

Update rebalancer-lior wake script to replace both dead triggers with a 30-min recurring interval + lp-book-change event for USDC→BTC — closes the 106-min gap that opens when lp-maker-matheus intents expire in ~50 min

Verify lp-maker-matheus auto-repost on intent TTL expiry and tighten her fallback to ≤45 min when open intents exist — she is the sole deal engine and a TTL/fallback race would take the entire swap market offline

Marginally better than last run — 2 swap deals cleared (both lp-maker-matheus) vs zero last cycle, but a new regression: lp-maker-matheus watcher is now offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false) despite being the fleet's sole deal engine; her 3 live swap intents (59-60 min TTL) will expire unreplaced. B

lp-maker-matheus watcher crashed mid-session: 3 live swap intents on book (59-60 min TTL, USDC/ETH both sides + USDC→BTC at 63,450/BTC) will orphan when they expire with no repost path

mimic-ljuba BinaryBet expiring in ~24 min (19:00 UTC, 8+6.55 USDC) — arb-hunter-tom woke 8 min ago and missed this bet in W3; did W5 see it?

polymarket-ljuba intent #32 (BTC<$64k/Jun9, 10 USDC, 1284 min left) sits on book unmatched — BTC oracle near 63,450 makes this ~in-the-money but no taker has appeared

5 agents permanently crashed (bear-yosher, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew) for 4+ consecutive cycles — no self-recovery path confirmed for any

Funnel: 35 posted, 2 settled = 5.7% conversion; all settled deals are lp-maker-matheus swaps — binary market has 0 settled deals lifetime

Did the W5 wake (8 min ago) see and evaluate mimic-ljuba's BinaryBet (8+6.55 USDC, expiry 19:00 UTC, ~24 min left)? If not, why — is the watcher blind to BinaryBet intents posted between wakes, and does the prior 'no binary bets' miss from

Armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0.78 frozen for 4+ cycles with no self-recovery path — has anything changed this cycle, or is this a confirmed permanent flatline requiring manual re-deployment?

Watcher is now offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false) despite 2 settled deals and $14.57 burn this session — did her process crash after posting the 3 live swap intents (59-60 min TTL on book), and what happens to market liquidity when those

BinaryBet expires in ~24 min (19:00 UTC); watcher is armed with 30-min fallback — will the fallback fire before expiry to check the oracle outcome, and is there any counterparty (arb-hunter-tom?) positioned to take the bet before it closes?

Prior summary showed intent #28 live and unresolved; current data shows open_intents=0. Did intent #28 settle (no deal appears in recent settled list) or expire, and does the armed watcher (nextFallbackMin=44, pidAlive=false) have a path to

Armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0.15 frozen for 4+ cycles — any change this cycle, or still a confirmed flatline with no self-recovery path?

Armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 option intents ever posted for 4+ cycles — any change, or still confirmed flatline? lp-maker-matheus's ETH quotes (1,682-1,688 USDC/ETH) provide a reference price; would option-writer's 70/30 engine have a val

Intent #32 (BTC<$64k/Jun9, 10 USDC, implied 0.617) appears on book as 0x9199 with 1284 min left — BTC oracle near 63,450 puts this in-the-money. Is any agent positioned to take it, and did polymarket-ljuba's last wake (31 min ago) post anyt

Intent #13 (7 USDC → 0.0001105 BTC at ~63,348/BTC) expired per prior summary. lp-maker-matheus currently offers USDC→BTC at 63,450/BTC (12.69 USDC → 0.0002 BTC). When the fallback fires (~168 min), will the new slice price cross lp-maker-ma

Armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes for 4+ cycles — any change? Both structural blockers (no wake script loaded, 0.50 USDC lot ~24× below LP minimum of ~12 USDC) still present?

Armed with 10-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=10), pidAlive=true, last wake 312 min ago — fallback should fire imminently. Has the warmup watcher posted any swap intent in the past 5 hours, or is it still in warmup mode watching prices withou

Never deployed, 0 wakes — any change? lp-maker-matheus's USDC→BTC at 63,450/BTC and mimic-ljuba's 24-min binary are measurable opportunities; what is the concrete blocker preventing deployment?

lp-maker-matheus: investigate watcher crash immediately — she is the sole liquidity provider; 3 swap intents expire in 59-60 min with no repost path if watcher stays down

arb-hunter-tom: check whether W5 (8 min ago) evaluated mimic-ljuba's BinaryBet — if not taken, determine if the watcher is structurally blind to BinaryBet intents and fix before the 19:00 UTC expiry w

Manual re-deployment required for bear-yosher, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus — all 4+ consecutive cycles with confirmed no self-recovery path; no harness event will restart them

stacker-massimo: two pre-deployment blockers must be fixed before any deploy: (1) load a wake script, (2) raise lot size from 0.50 USDC to ≥12 USDC to meet LP minimum

Binary market has 0 settled deals lifetime despite multiple BinaryBet intents posted — investigate whether the BinaryBet judge or settlement path has a systemic block