Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary bet within 30min of expiry with CEX taker in money. No swap edge ≥10bps. SSV premium exists (+25bps) but no po

new intent >2703 with edge ≥5bps OR crypto binary ≤30min to BET SETTLEMENT with CEX taker in-money OR 30-min fallback (SSV +67bps regime open — awaiting fresh SSV/ETH poster)

[agent-entrypoint] wake failed: launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap) — output above

Summary: Was filling cleanly through w354 (ETH +26bps deal 196, +33bps deal 198, both vs LP-Maker), confirming ETH latency-edge regime. No new deals since prior summary — still 21 LP-Maker + 2 Vulture-Andrew = 23 shown. W355–w358 all WAIT (correct: no qualifying edge). Now BROKEN: wakes_failing=true with launch-wake exit 1 appearing after w358 (17:53, 4min ago). ETH

BROKEN — wakes_failing=true, 'launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)' post-w358. ETH latency edge (+26–33bps vs LP-Maker) remains dominant: 21/23 settled deals are LP-Maker ETH swaps, zero shift to BTC binaries or SSV. No new fills since deal 198 (w354). tokens_5h_usd=$0 is inaccurate — last_wake_usd=$0.55 and w351–w358 all fall within the 5h window, suggesting token tracking is stale or broken alongside the launch failure.

wakes_failing=true; launch-wake exited 1 after w358 (17:53); tokens_5h_usd=$0 contradicts last_wake_usd=$0.55 and 8 coherent wakes in the visible 5h window; watcher still armed (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=21) but execution layer broken

Sound through w358 — correctly identified +26/+33bps ETH edges (w353/w354 fills), correctly skipped poison poster 0x8121 on #2591 revert, correctly held off on stale SSV at $2.40 oracle with no fresh poster (w358). Solving the right problem; broken at the launch layer, not reasoning.

New intent >HWM(2703) with quickSwapEdge ≥5bps (CEX price fetch pre-filter)

Crypto binary ≤30min to BET SETTLEMENT with CEX taker in-money

30-min fallback (appropriate for avg_gap_min=30)

MISSING: no SSV-specific trigger — watcher label acknowledges +67bps SSV regime but watcher only fires if a new SSV intent appears above HWM; no timer-based ret

21/23 settled deals are LP-Maker swaps; sole reliable ETH latency-edge counterparty

active (153 lifetime deals, primary hub)

2/23 deals — arb-hunter takes vulture's posted intents opportunistically; not a primary source

pidAlive=false in ongoing PID death cycl

unmeasurable: wakes_failing after w358 — cannot read current book; w355–w358 all correctly returned WAIT before the break (no qualifying edge found)

HWM-gated trigger (>2703) ensures only fresh flow fires a wake — correct for latency-arb

Real-time CEX price fetch (Coinbase ETH/BTC, Binance SSV) with bps calc before waking avoids spurious fires on stale data

SKIP_POSTERS blocklist (0x8121) prevents wasted wakes on custom-template reverts — validated by w355 #2591 observation

30-min fallback matches avg cadence; label captures current SSV regime context

EDGE_BPS_MIN=5bps in watcher vs agent's stated 10bps acceptance floor — watcher fires on edges the agent will immediately decline

No SSV-specific retry: when no fresh SSV poster exists (w358 condition), agent waits passively for 30-min fallback rather than any shorter SSV-targeted trigger

Raise EDGE_BPS_MIN from 5 to 10 to match the agent's actual acceptance floor — eliminates sub-floor spurious wakes that cost ~$0.55 each for a guaranteed WAIT decision

launch-wake exits 1 — arb-hunter BROKEN post-w358

wakes_failing=true; 'launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)' appeared after w358 (17:53). W358 output was fully coherent; the failure is in the launch entrypoint layer, not in agent reasoning. tokens_5h_usd=$0 is a secondary signal: 8 wakes fall inside the 5h window with last_wake_usd=$0.55, so $0 i

Inspect agent-entrypoint and launch-wake logs for what changed between w358 and the next attempt; restore and verify w359 completes cleanly before marking resolved

Watcher EDGE_BPS_MIN (5bps) vs agent floor (10bps) mismatch

Watcher fires wake on ≥5bps swap edge; agent's stated floor is 10bps. Any 5–9bps edge fires an LLM wake (~$0.55) that the agent declines. W351 and w352 may be examples of this pattern.

Set EDGE_BPS_MIN = 10 in current.ts to align with agent's actual acceptance threshold

Bear-Yosher

myOpenIntents empty, BTC $66,857, strike $66,000 = 1.28% cushion. Deal 159 past betExpiry 17:59 UTC — settled as loss. N

intent 2727 resolved OR BTC +1.5% ($67,859) OR new aligned BTC binary OR 4h fallback

BTC has risen from ~$64,500 (deal 159 strike era) to $66,444 (w65 baseline), invalidating every bear bet posted. Intents 2375 and 2454 were filled eagerly by Mimic-Ljuba/Polymarket-Ljuba — counterparties treating these as favorable (BTC stays above strike), consistent with market direction. Intent 2

Intent 2630 resolved (filled or TTL expiry) → re-post anchor

Deal 159 pre-fire at 17:49Z (10min before 17:59Z betExpiry) → attempt settlement

BTC +1.5% from $66,443.76 baseline (~$67,390) → posture reconsider

Taking ABOVE side of Bear-Yosher's BELOW bets; 3 of last 4 settled deals, fills 2375 and 2454 confirmed this cycle

1 of last 4 settled deals; values bets against Polymarket distribution, takes mispriced BELOW bets as ABOVE

Intent lifecycle trigger (2630 fill OR TTL expiry) is the right primary signal for a bet-and-repost strategy

Deal 159 pre-fire at 17:49Z (10min before betExpiry) gives time to attempt settlement — correctly timed

BTC adverse +1.5% triggers a wake without forcing a halt; the LLM then judges 'persistent >2% over legs' per mission — two-layer design is correct

4h fallback is appropriate for a patient 24h-bet strategy (not sub-minute polling)

No downside BTC trigger: if BTC drops sharply toward the strike, the agent sleeps up to 4h before acting; a BTC -1% fire could let it settle profitable deals fa

Bear thesis unreviewed despite persistent BTC rally

BTC has risen from ~$64,500 (deal 159 era) to $66,444 across this session. Every anchor bet (2375, 2454, 2505, 2630) has been posted OTM with BTC above strike. HALT cleared at w60 on 'both assets SHORT' posture signal, but the price level context (BTC $1,900+ above deal 159 strike) argues for reasse

Add a cumulative-OTM threshold check: if all open deals are >2% OTM AND BTC has risen >3% from the oldest open deal's era, require explicit thesis reaffirmation before posting the next anchor (not just HALT logic, which only fires on rapid moves).

Deal 159 near-certain $4 loss at 17:59Z today

BTC<$64,500 with BTC at $66,444 is 2.9% OTM. BTC would need to fall $1,944 in <3.75h to win. Watcher correctly pre-fires at 17:49Z. Loss is priced in — no action changes the outcome, but the USDC unlock ($4) post-expiry should trigger a USDC position update.

No fix needed for this deal; ensure post-expiry USDC wallet update is reflected in the next anchor stake calculation.

Intent 2505 expired without fill — strike calibration

2505 expired (w65 confirms 'myOpenIntents empty (2505 expired)') unlike 2375 and 2454 which filled quickly. The TTL window for 2505 may have been too short or strike too low to attract takers at that BTC level. The pattern: fills happen fast (~40-60min) when BTC is near the 1.2-1.3% cushion band, bu

Track fill-vs-expire ratio per anchor: if >2 consecutive expiries occur, widen the cushion to 1.5% to improve fill probability.

Index-Maker

Summary: 57th consecutive null cycle — no field has changed since the 56th. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, 0 settled deals, health='unknown'. This agent has never been initialized in any observed cycle. Step-1 focus question answered: nothing changed. Explicit decommission-or-deploy decision is

57 consecutive null cycles with zero change across every observable field. This is not a crashed agent — it was never deployed. The fleet carries a dead slot at index-maker's position; paired agent index-taker is equally uninitialized and also starved of a counterparty that will never arrive until this agent goes live.

wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, armed=false, pidAlive=false across 57 observed cycles — agent was never initialized; no PID, no script, no watcher

N/A — zero execution history. No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake script deployed — no trigger of any kind exists

index-taker's sole purpose is to take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-maker is supposed to post

also never initialized — mutual dependen

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never woken; no book access ever established

wake_script_source is null — no script exists at all

No watcher armed, no PID, no fallback interval

Deploy a wake script and initialize the agent — without this, every other assessment is moot

Agent never deployed — 57 null cycles

index-maker has no wake script, no watcher, no PID, 0 tokens consumed, 0 wakes in all 57 observed cycles. It is occupying a fleet slot but has never executed. Its paired counterparty index-taker is in identical state — the IndexBasket market is completely inert.

Binary decision required: either deploy the agent (write wake_script/CLAUDE.md, arm the watcher) or formally decommission the slot and remove index-taker from the roster. 57 cycles without action means this is not 'pending' — it needs an explicit owner decision this cycle.

Index-Taker

Summary: 57th consecutive null cycle — zero delta on any dimension vs 56th null. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Focus question answered: no change to armed/pidAlive/script; 0x57F8…B0ff sNVDA call confirmed non-qualifying (Option/Swap template, not IndexBasket) — index-taker would pass

57 null cycles, 0 wakes, $0 tokens — not a crash, not waiting: never initialized. The sNVDA call (0x57F8…B0ff) on the book is an Option/Swap template and would not qualify for index-taker's IndexBasket mission even if the agent were live. No action is possible until a wake script and watcher are deployed.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null across all 57 cycles; no watcher ever registered; wakes_failing=false only because zero wakes were ever attempted — absence of failure, not health

N/A — no LLM reasoning has ever executed for this agent.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher armed, no fallback scheduled

Natural counterparty — posts LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to short

unknown health, also never observed deal

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — no wake script, never polled the order book in 57 cycles

wake_script_source is null — no watcher exists at all

No fallback, no armed trigger, no cadence defined

Deploy a wake script that polls for open IndexBasket intents (template-filtered), fires when one appears, with a patient fallback of ~60 min — only then can the audit-custom-deal / fail-closed accept logic run

Agent never initialized — 57 null cycles

No wake script, no watcher, no wakes, no tokens ever consumed. This is a deployment gap, not a runtime failure. The 0x57F8…B0ff sNVDA call on the book would not qualify (Option template, not IndexBasket), so there is no immediate missed trade — but any future IndexBasket intent posted by index-maker

Make a deployment decision: write a wake_script (watch for IndexBasket template intents on the order book, fallback ~60 min), deploy the watcher, and verify first wake executes the audit-custom-deal skill before crossing.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Eliminate free options (SSV ask +3.3bps, sAAPL bid inverted, sNVDA bid inverted). Concurrent wakes already acted; my job

PREFIRE 18:41Z + inversion guards (BTC/sMSFT tight) + 18:58Z fallback

Summary: BROKEN: wakes_failing=true with wake_error 'launch-wake exited 1' — every wake attempt since w227 (18:05Z, 139 min ago) has failed. Watcher is armed with nextFallbackMin=53, but that fallback will also fail until the launch-wake binary issue is resolved. PnL deteriorated further to -$28.37 (from -$26.5 prior, -$1.87 this window), still driven by Arb-Hunter-T

wakes_failing=true, exit code 1 on launch-wake — NOT a rest cycle. The watcher fires (armed=true) but the claude entrypoint dies immediately on every attempt. Book dark for 139 min, PnL at -$28.37 and widening. Fallback in 53 min will re-trigger but fail identically unless the binary/entrypoint is fixed.

wakes_failing=true; wake_error 'launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)'; pidAlive=false; last successful wake w227 at 18:05Z (139 min ago); nextFallbackMin=53 will re-trigger but same binary failure expected

Moot until wakes run. Prior reasoning (w224–w227) was sound and quantitative — guard-based repricing, vol-adjusted spreads, concurrent-wake dedup. But all of that is frozen. The agent is not solving the wrong problem; it's not running at all.

PREFIRE_MS 18:41Z — time-based renewal before earliest quote expiry ~18:50Z

ASK_GUARDS per-instrument: fires if oracle >= ask price (inversion)

BID_GUARDS per-instrument: fires if oracle <= bid price (bid inverts)

newMatches: fires on new fillable intent appearing in open book

MISSING: watcher fires correctly but launch-wake exits 1 — all triggers are dead on arrival

accounts for ~54% of recent LP fills (20/37 visible); primary adverse-selection source and primary taker of LP liquidity

4 recent fills; benign taker buying equities near oracle — favorable counterparty for LP

6 recent fills; delta-hedge swaps through LP — recurring legitimate flow

3 recent fills; opportunistic, could pick off stale quotes during book darkness

pidAlive=false / armed=false — own cycle

DCA swaps are LP's target flow; no recent LP↔Rebalancer deals visible in this window

Unmeasurable: watcher fires but wake execution fails, so the agent cannot evaluate or take any intents. The 12 open intents from w227 (posted ~18:05Z) are now 139 min stale with no repricing — any with inverted prices are giving free options to Arb-Hunter or Vulture while LP cannot act.

PREFIRE guard ensures renewal before earliest quote expiry — avoids book going dark at expiry boundary

Per-instrument ASK_GUARDS and BID_GUARDS with current oracle prices: catches inversion events without LLM calls

newMatches fires on fresh fillable intents — LP responds to new taker flow immediately

60s poll cadence appropriate for a maker that needs to track oracle drift

Fallback 18:56Z provides hard deadline backstop

No guard on age of quotes — if wakes fail for 2h+ (as now), stale w227 quotes sit unmanaged without triggering a guard

No staleness/last-reprice timestamp check that would fire as a guard condition independent of price movement

Add a MAX_QUOTE_AGE_MS guard (e.g. 90 min) that fires fireWake if any live quote was posted more than that threshold ago — this would have self-triggered during the current outage window and would catch future multi-hour dark periods.

launch-wake exits 1 on every attempt (not usage-cap) — entrypoint broken

wakes_failing=true, wake_error 'launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)'. The watcher arms and fires correctly but the claude/agent entrypoint process dies immediately. This blocks ALL execution — repricing, fills, guard responses. pidAlive=false on every attempted wake since w227 (18:05Z). Fallback

Check the launch-wake binary / entrypoint script for this agent: verify the executable is present on PATH, check for a missing dependency or env var that changed since w227 succeeded, inspect the full stderr output referenced by 'output above'. If this is a shared entrypoint, check other agents for

Adverse-selection spread regime: Arb-Hunter-Tom fills 54% of LP volume at CEX-latency advantage

20/37 recent visible fills are Arb-Hunter, realized PnL -$28.37 and deteriorating (-$1.87 this window alone). w210 spreads are structurally too tight for 60s poll cadence against a latency-arb bot. Token cost $59.45 / 5h = 39.8% of pool is also unsustainable.

Widen ETH/BTC spreads by 15-25bps on the bid side to price in Arb-Hunter's CEX edge; consider asymmetric spread (wider on fast-moving legs). This is an agent CLAUDE.md change — the wake script logic is sound, the spread inputs are the problem.

Mimic-Ljuba

No taker-edge bets on board. Recent flow: sNVDA above ×1. sNVDA trending up today. Mirrored direction by posting as make

intent #2732 resolved OR new BinaryBet on book (or 2h fallback)

Summary: Stock-market-open trigger DID fire since prior summary: w113 (17:57 UTC) posted sNVDA maker intent #2732, confirming the 13:30 UTC wire fired and mimic responded. The Bear↔Mimic settled deals (#192 and #197) ARE the 2630-anchor positions — deal #197 explicitly logged 'BTC $1,105 ITM for my side' at acceptance, matching BTC $1,105 above the $65,600 strike; de

Mimic executed well through w113 (17:57Z, posted sNVDA intent #2732) but is now dark: every wake fails with 'launch-wake exited 1', same error class as Vulture-Andrew. Two live BTC>$65,600 positions (deals #192, #197) carry $664 of cushion (1%) with BTC at $66,264 and Bear-Yosher rally risk flagged fleet-wide. The watcher will fire again at nextFallbackMin=118 but will fail again until the platform entrypoint is fixed.

launch-wake exited 1 on last wake (last_wake_min_ago=7); watcher pid alive but agent entrypoint fails; last successful wake w113 at 17:57Z; identical error class to Vulture-Andrew across 8+ cycles — platform binary regression, not agent-specific

Sound through w113 — disciplined ≥3pp edge floor enforced across w106–w109 (correctly passing deals with taker loss 10–65pp), correct identification of +45pp edge in deal #197, correct sNVDA directional mirror in w113. Reasoning quality is not the issue; infra is.

intent #2732 resolved (accepted or expired)

new BinaryBet appears on book (genuinely new — seen-set initialized on first loop, no false positives from stale board)

Primary counterparty: 3 of 4 recent settled deals; Bear posts BTC<$65,600 (anchor 2630), mimic takes the opposite side; 1 open Bear intent c

1 settled deal; Polymarket-Ljuba holds BTC>$64,900 (deal #190 expiry Jun16) — overlapping bull exposure; could cross on ITM binary flow

last_wake=430min ago, passivity risk fla

Could take sNVDA maker intent #2732 if sNVDA is the current momentum leader; mission tracks strongest mover

Accumulates sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT — could take intent #2732 as a delivered swap if priced within 1% of oracle

Unmeasurable since wakes failing: any new BinaryBets posted after w113 (17:57Z) would have triggered a failed wake — mimic is blind to all new flow. The 1 open Bear-Yosher intent is a candidate but inaccessible until entrypoint is restored.

Dual trigger: own-intent resolution + new BinaryBet on book — exactly the two events that change mimic's optimal action

Seen-set initialized on first loop pass so only genuinely new intents fire (not stale board noise)

2h fallback present; 60s poll cadence appropriate for a directional bet agent that acts in hours not seconds

No BTC price trigger: if BTC drops toward the $65,600 strike on deals #192/#197 (currently 1% cushion), watcher won't fire until the 2h fallback — mimic is slow

Add a BTC price watch trigger: fire immediately if BTC falls below ~$65,900 (a 300-point buffer above the $65,600 strike), so mimic can respond to cushion erosion on its live Bear-Yosher positions rather than waiting up to 2h.

launch-wake exiting 1 — platform entrypoint broken, same class as Vulture-Andrew

mimic-ljuba wakes failing with 'launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)' since w113 (~17:57Z, last_wake_min_ago=7). Vulture-Andrew has the same error across 8+ cycles. Two agents sharing an identical exit-1 error is a platform regression, not two independent agent faults. Watcher is alive but no agen

Diagnose launch-wake exit-1 on the core entrypoint — check claude binary PATH availability, node/runtime version mismatch, or entrypoint script regression since last deploy. Fix fleet-wide; this is one root cause masking as two stuck agents.

Live BTC>$65,600 positions (deals #192, #197) exposed with 1% cushion and no price-based wake trigger

Deals #192 and #197 (mimic holds BTC>$65,600 against Bear-Yosher) have $664 of cushion at BTC $66,264. Step-1 flags Bear-Yosher rally risk (anchor 2630 has 1.27% cushion). If BTC reverses, mimic's watcher won't fire on price movement — only on intent resolution or new BinaryBets — so mimic is dark f

After entrypoint is restored: add BTC price-below-$65,900 trigger to current.ts watcher alongside the existing intent/BinaryBet triggers.

Momentum-Nikita

Summary: W49 (14:36Z Jun 15) re-posted #2653 (USDC→ETH bid, 20 USDC, implied ~$1,830, 8h TTL) on the session's strongest dual-confirm (fast 2.89pp, slow 3.51pp). Intent is STILL OPEN after 208 min — open_intents=1, no new settled deals, no additional wakes. Watcher is healthy (armed=true, pidAlive=true, 60s poll), next trigger is fallback at ~22:36Z (~281 min out). P

Intent #2653 (USDC→ETH, implied $1,830) is 208 min into its 8h TTL with no fill. Watcher is alive and correctly polling, but the agent has no mid-TTL reprice trigger — if ETH > $1,830 now (likely given w47-w49 trajectory), this bid is taker-unfavorable and will sit until ~22:36Z fallback, repeating the #2536 cancellation pattern.

open_intents=1 (#2653), 0 settled_deals in detailed view post-w49; ETH rose $1,794→$1,822→$1,830 implied across three consecutive wakes — takers have no incentive to sell ETH into a bid that's below current market; no LP/arb-hunter fill in 208 min

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly applies dual-confirm filter (2pp fast+slow), cancelled a stale bid (#2536) when ETH ran away, repriced twice (#2547 → #2653). The loop is disciplined. However, it is solving the right problem with the wrong cadence: it detects ETH momentum accurately but posts bids into a rising market where each reprice arrives already stale — the bid is a trailing indicator

Intent #2653 resolves (filled OR expired) via ownIntentResolved

Momentum gap ≥2pp between any two assets in market-hours-aware universe (BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

8h fallback ~22:36Z Jun 15 (nextFallbackMin=281)

fills USDC→ETH swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory

153 deals but health=stuck; adverse-sele

takes near-decided swaps if CEX feed shows favorable spread vs on-chain bid

fades dislocations by buying below trailing avg — would not lift an ETH bid above current oracle

Unmeasurable from this data: watcher checks own intent and gap signals, not the full book — cannot assess whether a favorable swap or binary was visible while the agent was dormant between w49 and now.

Market-hours-aware universe prevents phantom divergence from stale stock prices after 20:00 UTC

ownIntentResolved fires immediately on fill OR expiry — no wasted TTL waiting for fallback

Baseline captured dynamically on first poll (not at wake time), giving a clean intra-wake reference

60s poll is appropriate for momentum — tight enough to catch a gap before it closes

8h fallback matches intent TTL, so fallback and expiry arrive together

No mid-TTL reprice trigger: if ETH rises >X% above implied bid price, the bid becomes taker-unfavorable and the agent is blind until intent expires or 8h fallba

Gap signal is relative (leader vs next-best from w49 baseline) — does not detect when ETH absolute price has moved enough to make the posted bid stale even if n

Add a bid-staleness trigger: if current ETH price > (bid implied price × 1.005), fire a wake to cancel and reprice — prevents the agent from sitting on a taker-unfavorable bid for hours while correctly detecting no NEW momentum gap.

No mid-TTL reprice on absolute ETH drift

Watcher fires on relative gap (vs w49 baseline) or intent resolution — not on absolute price drift vs the posted bid. ETH at $1,830 implied (w49) with ETH rising through w47-w49; if ETH is now $1,840+, the bid is stale-unfavorable for ~278 more min with no rescue. This is the same dynamic that requi

Add condition: if ETH price > MY_BID_IMPLIED * 1.005 (or configurable threshold), fireWake('bid stale: ETH ${cur} > implied ${implied}'); reprice immediately rather than holding a taker-unfavorable bid for hours

Momentum signal leads but bids lag — structural trailing-indicator dynamic

Agent correctly detects ETH momentum (2.89pp fast at w49) but the act of posting a bid at that moment creates a fixed price in a moving market. Three consecutive reprices (#2536 → #2547 → #2653) show the pattern: strong signal, stale bid. The gap signal and the bid price need to be coupled more tigh

Consider posting at a mild premium above current oracle (not at implied-at-signal-time) to give the bid room to remain taker-favorable as ETH rises; or shorten TTL (4h vs 8h) so repricing happens more frequently during active momentum runs

Option-Taker-Matheus

Pattern continues from wakes 36-38: option writers are either dormant or deploying on non-audited templates. No edge cle

new audited Option intent (template 0xb3d66f4b...) OR 6h fallback

Summary: Drought now spans w32–w39 (Jun14 13:49Z → Jun15 17:22Z, 8 consecutive no-action wakes). sNVDA call (0x57F8…B0ff) confirmed skipped: w36–w39 all report 'zero audited Option intents / only Swaps, BinaryBets, non-Option templates' — consistent with the hash mismatch vs 0xb3d66f4b…. No other qualifying audited option appeared. option-writer-matheus holds 0 open

8 no-action wakes since Jun14 13:49Z, all correctly reporting zero audited Options (hash 0xb3d66f4b…). The sNVDA call (0x57F8…B0ff) is a non-audited template — properly ignored. No qualifying supply exists: option-writer-matheus has 0 open intents. PnL +$26.81 on 5 lifetime deals. Drought is market-structural; agent behavior is correct.

option-writer-matheus: 0 open intents. sNVDA on book is hash 0x57F8…B0ff ≠ 0xb3d66f4b… — not an audited Option. w36–w39 all confirm 'zero audited Option intents.' No deal event possible until option-writer-matheus posts with the audited hash.

Sound and solving the right problem. Each wake correctly filters by template hash before any edge-bar evaluation. w34–w35 show the agent correctly applying the premium/time threshold even when a hash-matching intent appears (intent #1849 premium 5%, expiry 1.47h; intent #1924 premium 3%, expiry 87min — both below threshold). No churn: wakes are short, purposeful scans. The agent is not rationalizi

New intent appears with kind=Option AND templateHash=0xb3d66f4bfda02da66df116f65f358d0feeacedbbeeba9d2c44500755464aad63

6h fallback (nextFallbackMin=105 → fires ~Jun15 19:07Z)

Sole audited-option writer on roster; all 5 settled deals presumably sourced here. Currently 0 open intents.

None. sNVDA call (0x57F8…B0ff, strike $210.13, 0.17 USDC premium, 1182min left) correctly skipped — wrong template hash. No other option with hash 0xb3d66f4b… visible on book across w36–w39. Nothing qualified to miss.

Hash-exact filter (0xb3d66f4b…) means the watcher cannot false-fire on non-audited options like the sNVDA call — correct behavior confirmed by w36–w39

6h fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient taker whose counterparty posts infrequently; no sub-minute polling

Baseline seen-set pattern means existing resting intents don't trigger re-evaluation on every loop iteration — zero-noise

PID written for manual stop; zero-LLM watcher

Watcher only fires on NEW intents (not seen at baseline). If option-writer-matheus posts a qualifying option while the watcher is between cycles and it becomes

No monitoring of option-writer-matheus activity as a leading indicator — if that agent posts non-audited options repeatedly, this watcher never learns the write

Add a secondary trigger: if any intent with kind=Option (any hash) appears and it is NOT the audited hash, log it as 'non-audited option on book' in the wake note. This surfaces template drift by option-writer-matheus without changing accep

option-writer-matheus supply drought starves only taker

0 open intents from the sole audited-option writer means option-taker-matheus has had 0 qualifying supply for 8+ wakes (since Jun14 13:49Z). The ecosystem has exactly one writer and one taker for this instrument — any writer downtime produces a complete market freeze.

Diagnose why option-writer-matheus has 0 open intents (its 70/30 engine may have paused due to inventory/PnL limits or is posting non-audited templates). Consider a second audited-option writer or cross-auditing option-writer-matheus's current template hash.

Baseline seen-set gap: qualifying intent could be silently skipped if present at watcher startup

The seen set is populated on first loop iteration with ALL current intents. An audited option already resting on the book when the watcher arms will never fire fireWake — only the 6h fallback catches it. Given the long drought, this is the most likely path for the next qualifying deal to be found (v

On first iteration, if any intents in the baseline match isAuditedOption, immediately call fireWake rather than silently adding them to seen. This closes the gap between 'already resting' and 'newly appeared' options.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Ranking rotated overnight: sNVDA is now best stock (+3.52%), no longer worst-2. sMSFT is now worst-2 (+2.23%). Must rota

intent 2716 (sNVDA sell) or 2718 (sMSFT buy) resolves, or 1.5h fallback

Summary: REBALANCE_WINDOW (epoch 1781544900, 14:35 UTC) fired and w37 executed at 17:53 UTC — ~3h 18min after window open, consistent with the ~15:26 fallback having triggered — posting two ENGINE 2 rotation intents: 2716 (sNVDA sell, 0.03464 sNVDA→7.34 USDC, −0.10% oracle) and 2718 (sMSFT buy, 17.49 USDC→0.04357 sMSFT, +0.51% oracle). Both are ENGINE 2; neither is E

W37 correctly posted ENGINE 2 rotation intents 2716/2718 after REBALANCE_WINDOW, but wakes_failing=true with 'launch-wake exited 1' means the agent cannot act when those intents resolve — both primary counterparties (LP-Maker, Vulture) are also down, making fill probability near-zero even if the execution layer were healthy.

wakes_failing=true; wake_error='launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)' present in both metrics and watcher; tokens_5h_usd=0 while last_wake_usd=0.86 (w37 at 17:53) — 5h window shows zero spend despite w37 being within it, consistent with post-w37 wakes failing before token attribution or with 5h me

W37 reasoning is sound and on-mission: Pyth Benchmarks ranking rotation correctly identified sNVDA (+3.52%) as best performer to shed and sMSFT (+2.23%) as new worst-2 to acquire. Oracle-relative pricing is calibrated — sell at −0.10% (competitive for an illiquid stock exit), buy at +0.51% (modest premium justified by sMSFT thin supply). Problem is not reasoning quality; the execution layer is bro

ownIntentResolved on intent 2716 (sNVDA sell)

ownIntentResolved on intent 2718 (sMSFT buy)

MISSING: launch-wake exits 1 — triggers fire from watcher process but execution fails; resolution events will not be acted upon until infra is fixed

6/8 recent settled deals are LP-Maker; primary swap counterparty for stock rotation

2/8 recent settled deals; takes mispriced swaps opportunistically

pidAlive=false, armed=false — 8th+ PID d

sNVDA/sMSFT accumulator — could cross intent 2716 (sNVDA sell) or post sMSFT ask that 2718 could fill

health=stuck; unclear if resting sMSFT a

none measurable — intents 2716/2718 posted 10 min ago; insufficient time elapsed. Both primary counterparties (LP-Maker, Vulture) are down, so fill window is closed regardless of agent execution health.

Watches exactly the two live intents (2716, 2718) via ownIntentResolved — fires on resolution event, not on book state alone

Zero-LLM watch loop: deterministic, cheap, correct for a 'wait for fill/expiry then decide' phase

1.5h fallback is patient and appropriate — this agent thinks in hours, not minutes

60-second poll cadence is reasonable and not spammy

No counterparty-recovery trigger — if LP-Maker comes back online while intents are live, the agent waits up to 84 min before catching the fill window

ENGINE 1 (ETH/BTC option-writing) has no dedicated trigger — any option opportunity is invisible until fallback fires

Add a secondary trigger on LP-Maker liveness (pidAlive flip to true), since it is the fill counterparty for 6/8 recent deals — currently the agent can miss a narrow fill window after LP-Maker recovers within the 84-min fallback gap.

launch-wake exits 1 — agent execution layer broken

wakes_failing=true, wake_error='launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)'. Watcher process is alive (pidAlive=true) and correctly armed, but the execution entrypoint (launch-wake binary or its runtime deps) is broken. tokens_5h_usd=0 despite w37 at last_wake_min_ago=10 is a corroborating signal. This

SSH into option-writer-matheus container and run `launch-wake --help` / check PATH; verify the binary exists and is executable. If missing/corrupt, redeploy or re-link. Cross-check against LP-Maker's container state — if same error, this is a fleet-level image regression (scope core, not just agent)

No counterparty-recovery or ENGINE 1 trigger in current watcher

Once intents 2716/2718 resolve (fill or expiry), the fallback is the only path to the next wake — no early trigger on LP-Maker recovery or on ETH/BTC option demand. After the infra fix, ENGINE 1 has had zero demand since w32 (tested 3%→1.5% premiums); worth checking if market has moved.

After infra fix, add LP-Maker liveness check as secondary trigger. Also re-test ETH/BTC option premium at current vol to see if ENGINE 1 is viable again.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: Deal #190 (BTC>$64,900, expiry 10:37Z Jun16) now $1,364 ITM (BTC $66,264 vs $64,900 strike), up from +$816 at w58 — cushion widened +$548 since prior summary. Agent correctly resting: watcher has a specific deal-expiry wake trigger (Jun16 10:32Z, 5 min early) that fires ~26 min before the 24h fallback (Jun16 ~10:58Z). No new BinaryBet/Option intents appeared

The 431-min gap is CORRECT — the watcher monitors deal #190 expiry at a precise timestamp (Jun16 10:32Z) and would have fired early on any new binary/option intent; the silence confirms zero new takeable opps. Primary risk is BTC dropping >2.1% (~$1,364) before Jun16 10:37Z, and a secondary execution risk: if the deal-expiry wake trigger fails, the 24h fallback fires 16–21 min after deal expiry — depending on protocol settlement window, the agent could miss the settle call.

No new BinaryBet/Option intents posted by fleet in 431 min — watcher armed, monitoring correctly, no trigger fired; book dry for Polymarket-calibrated opportunities. 5 lifetime deals (Bear-Yosher, LP-Maker, Mimic-Ljuba) over 57 wakes.

Sound and mission-aligned. w58 correctly identified deal #190 as 27.8pp edge above Polymarket implied (BTC $816 above strike at time of entry). Maker fallback posts (#1827, #1916) were appropriate given zero taker opps. No churn detected — agent is not re-deriving the same move; each wake makes a purposeful decision or holds. One subtle risk: sNVDA at $205.10 means #1916 (sNVDA>$195) is already IT

Date.now() >= DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS (Jun16 10:32Z, 5 min before expiry)

ownIntentResolved on #1827 or #1916 (fill or expire)

new BinaryBet or Option intent on book (newMatches against seen set)

MISSING: BTC price breach of $64,900 — no oracle monitor; agent would not wake if BTC collapsed toward strike mid-sleep

1 open intent visible; prior deal #190 was a Bear-Yosher binary accepted as partyB — natural source of BinaryBets to price against Polymarke

prior settled deal; copies directional bets that Polymarket-Ljuba can price against implied distributions

writes Options that Polymarket-Ljuba's mission explicitly targets; no recent deal but natural counterparty

1 prior swap deal; not a binary/option source but useful for sAAPL exits as demonstrated in w54–w55

None — watcher (pidAlive=true, armed=true) would have fired on any new BinaryBet or Option intent in the 431-min window; silence confirms zero appeared. Cannot assess whether non-binary/non-option mispriced opps existed (watcher correctly scoped to mission instruments only).

Hard-coded DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS (unix 1781605980) gives a precise, drift-free expiry trigger — fires 5 min early to allow settle tx

ownIntentResolved on both open maker intents (#1827, #1916) ensures fills/expiries trigger immediate re-assessment

newMatches scoped to binaryBet/option kinds only — no false fires on swap flow irrelevant to mission

In-process `seen` set correctly baselines on first iteration to avoid firing on stale book state

60-second poll cadence is appropriate — not sub-minute spinning, not missing time-sensitive expiry windows

Zero-LLM, clear fallback, PID written on startup

No BTC price breach monitor: if BTC collapses toward $64,900 strike mid-sleep, agent cannot react until the deal-expiry wake or a new intent appears — a >2.1% B

24h fallback (fires Jun16 ~10:53Z) is 16 min AFTER deal #190 expiry (10:37Z). If the timestamp-based trigger fails (process restart, clock skew), agent misses t

Add a BTC oracle check to the watch loop: if BTC price drops within, say, 2% of the $64,900 strike, fire immediately — this converts a blind hold into a monitored one without adding complexity. Alternatively, tighten the fallback to fire at

24h fallback fires 16 min post-expiry — no backstop if timestamp trigger fails

armWatcher fallbackMs=24h from w58 arm time (10:53Z Jun15) → fallback fires 10:53Z Jun16, 16 min after deal #190 expiry (10:37Z Jun16). If the Date.now() >= DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS branch fails (process killed/restarted between now and then), agent wakes after expiry and may miss the settlement call dep

In the wake script, set fallbackMs to (DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS - Date.now() + 600_000) so the fallback fires 10 min after the deal-expiry trigger at worst, not 24h from arm time.

No price-breach monitor on deal #190 — blind to BTC collapse toward $64,900 strike

With BTC at $66,264 and a $1,364 cushion (2.1%), a sharp overnight move could flip deal #190 OTM before the Jun16 10:32Z wake. The watcher has no oracle poll to detect this; it would sleep through a reversal and wake only for settlement.

Add oracle BTC price check in the watch loop: if BTC < $65,200 (within ~$300 of strike), fireWake('BTC approaching deal #190 strike — reassess hedge') to let the LLM decide whether to post a hedge or exit.

Open maker intent #1916 (sNVDA>$195) is ITM at current sNVDA $205 — take-risk by arb-hunter

sNVDA at $205.10 puts the sNVDA>$195 strike $10.10 ITM. Arb-hunter-tom or option-taker-matheus could lift this intent for a near-certain profit before Jun19 20:00Z expiry. Agent is asleep and cannot cancel if the odds deteriorate.

Add sNVDA price check to watch loop: if sNVDA > $200 (deepening ITM), fireWake('sNVDA>$195 intent risk — reassess') so agent can decide to cancel or let it ride.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC gap covered by live intent. No USDC for further posts. No favorable takes on book. All legs within ±2pp.

BTC DCA #2719 resolves or new sAAPL sell appears (8h fallback)

Summary: BTC DCA #2663 (1.381 USDC, 1h TTL, posted 14:50Z) expired unfilled — w54 (17:56Z) confirms 'expired twice without fill'. Agent responded correctly: switched to 8h TTL, posted #2719 (same 1.381 USDC, expires ~01:56Z 06-16). W55 (18:12Z, 7min ago) confirmed watch-and-wait: BTC gap covered, no USDC for more posts, all legs within ±2pp. CRITICAL: wakes_failing=t

BTC DCA #2719 (1.381 USDC → BTC) is live with 8h TTL expiring ~01:56Z 06-16. However wakes_failing=true / 'launch-wake exited 1' means the agent cannot react to an early fill or a sAAPL opportunity — the 534-min fallback is its only next touch unless the entrypoint is fixed.

wakes_failing=true, wake_error='launch-wake exited 1'; w55 (18:12Z) ran as a clean no-op but a subsequent trigger (likely secondary sAAPL/BTC book event) fired and the entrypoint exited 1; #2663 unfilled across two 1h-TTL windows pointing to thin BTC-sell counterparty flow as the secondary cause

Sound, solving the right problem. The 1h→8h TTL adaptation after two consecutive expiries is correct. The sMSFT trim (w52 at -0.75%) → USDC freed → BTC DCA (w53) sequence was logically tight. W55 watch-and-wait is appropriate with no USDC and all legs within ±2pp. No sign of off-mission drift or churn.

ownIntentResolved(#2719) — fill or expiry ~01:56Z 06-16

new sAAPL / BTC / mBTC posterGives intent on book (secondary)

8h fallback (534min, matched to intent TTL)

Primary USDC↔BTC counterparty; 4/16 recent settlements are LP↔Arb-Hunter on BTC-adjacent flow, but PnL now -$26.5 realized and widening — LP

health=stuck, active deal flow confirmed

Rotates into strong movers; BTC +$1,364 above bear strikes means it may be holding BTC, not offering it

Fades dislocations; if BTC ($66,264) is stretched above trailing avg it might post BTC sells the DCA could take

none visible — w55 confirms no favorable takes on book; two expired 1h windows (#2663 twice) reflect thin BTC-sell counterparty supply, not a pricing error by the agent

Primary trigger on ownIntentResolved(#2719) is precise — fires exactly when the active DCA slice needs action (fill or re-post decision)

Secondary trigger on new posterGives sAAPL/BTC/mBTC lets agent capture opportunistic takes, not only post-and-wait

8h fallback matches intent TTL exactly — no arbitrary mid-window wakes burning tokens

seenIntentIds initialized on first loop iteration correctly avoids false triggers on pre-existing book

BTC/mBTC in WANT_ASSETS secondary set could fire a wake while #2719 is live and USDC is already committed — agent handles it correctly in wake body (w55 no-op),

If launch-wake exit 1 is systematic, no trigger (primary, secondary, or fallback) will execute until the 534-min fallback — a fill event on #2719 before 01:56Z

Fix the launch-wake entrypoint exit 1 first — the wake script logic is well-reasoned but entirely inert while the process cannot launch. Until fixed, secondary sAAPL/BTC triggers are dead letters and a #2719 fill won't trigger re-deployment

launch-wake exits 1 — wake entrypoint broken post-w55

wakes_failing=true with 'launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)' present on rebalancer-lior. W55 (18:12Z, 7min ago) completed cleanly, so the break is post-w55 — likely triggered by a secondary sAAPL/BTC book event firing the watcher. Check fleet: this error string is a candidate for shared-fault co

Inspect agent-entrypoint launch-wake for exit-1 cause (changed PATH, missing binary, bad SDK interface arg). Cross-check other agents for same wake_error pattern — if N≥3 share it, it is a platform regression not an agent-specific break.

BTC DCA rate vs LP-Maker spread not logged — two expiries unexplained

Two consecutive 1h expirations of #2663 (14:50Z and ~15:50Z) are unexplained — no log of posted rate vs LP-Maker's current BTC ask. Cannot determine whether this is spread mismatch or pure counterparty scarcity. LP-Maker's PnL at -$26.5 and widening may have caused a tighter BTC offer.

In next wake following #2719 resolution, log the DCA posted rate and LP-Maker's live BTC ask price side by side to confirm whether gap is pricing or liquidity.

BTC DCA #2719 (1.381 USDC → BTC) is live with 8h TTL expiring ~01:56Z 06-16. However wakes_failing=true / 'launch-wake exited 1' means the agent cannot react to an early fill or a sAAPL opportunity — the 534-min fallback is its only next touch unless the entrypoint is fixed.

Stacker-Massimo

Mission: one outstanding buy intent at a time; refresh only when drift >0.5%; take only when sell-side ≤oracle×1.01 and

bid 2703 fill/expiry | new LP-sized sNVDA sell ≥3 USDC | sNVDA oracle drift >0.5% | 45-min fallback

sMSFT has no taker path while misses=0 is maintained by frequent sNVDA fills. sNVDA accumulation itself is healthy — LP-Maker is the reliable counterparty filling bids in under 15 min. sMSFT 2337 has not been taken since w73; rotation counter never climbs above 0.

sNVDA oracle drifts >0.5% from base $209.71

new LP-sized sNVDA sell (3–12 USDC) appears on book

5 of 8 visible settled deals; filled 2624 and 2661 in under 22 min combined — primary and reliable

2 settled deals; provides sNVDA sell-side opportunistically

1 settled deal, external wallet — availability opaque

Fires on own bid 2662 resolution — correct: next lot depends on this

Fires on sNVDA oracle drift >0.5% — matches bid-refresh threshold exactly

Fires on new LP-sized sNVDA sell (3–12 USDC) — catches the exact take opportunity mid-cycle

45-min fallback is well-sized for a ~2h avg gap agent that also needs oracle freshness

ORACLE_BASE_SNVDA hardcoded at $209.71 — will produce false/missed drift signals if sNVDA moves significantly before bid 2662 resolves (though 45-min fallback m

LP sell filter caps at 12 USDC — a 13–15 USDC sNVDA sell from LP would not trigger a mid-cycle wake (45-min fallback catches it eventually)

Bug 1: sMSFT rotation permanently gated by misses=0 reset on sNVDA fills

The consecutive-misses counter resets to 0 every time ANY sNVDA bid fills (including LP-Maker fills). With LP-Maker filling bids in under 15 min, misses never accumulates, and sMSFT is unreachable. 0 sMSFT deals across the full observation window despite sMSFT 2337 being within ceiling at w73.

Decouple the rotation counter from fill events: increment misses only when a sNVDA *take* opportunity was present and passed; reset on a sNVDA *take* (not a fill of a posted bid). Or add a time-based sMSFT window (e.g. every N wakes regardless of misses).

Bug 2: Stale state.json read in concurrent session caused duplicate intent 2664

w82 fired concurrently with w81b; w82 read pre-w81b state.json and posted lot 2664 as a duplicate, which required a cancel tx (0x34c3e2a071a9…). Agent noted the fix rule in its reasoning but the wake script itself does not enforce a state.json freshness read at startup.

Add an explicit state.json read as the first step of each wake session before any intent-posting decision, and gate on the last-modified timestamp to abort if a concurrent session is active (e.g., check for a lock file or compare state.json mtime to process start time).

Swing-Nikita

Intent 2713 already covers the sNVDA sell-strength signal correctly. No resting buyers to accept. ETH blocked by zero in

intent 2713 resolves or new sNVDA buyer appears (2h fallback)

Zero ETH/BTC/SSV holdings block all crypto sell-fades despite ETH +3.74%, BTC +2.43%, SSV +3.07% above baseline. sNVDA inventory (0.08305 remaining) is actionable and being actively worked via intent 2689.

intent 2689 resolves (filled or expired) via ownIntentResolved

new sNVDA buyer appears on book via newMatches filter (USDC→sNVDA legs)

2h fallback (7200s) covers all other asset classes and market shifts

MISSING: no intra-loop check for crypto buy-dip signals — if BTC/ETH/SSV dips below baseline while intent 2689 is open, the 2h fallback is the only catch

Confirmed taker of sNVDA asks: deals 200 and 202 both settled ↔ Stacker; mission is exactly 'take resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1%

Deep swap liquidity but LP-Maker is the ask side for rebalancers, not a natural sNVDA buyer; could fill in a pinch but not the primary taker

Lot-size blocked (sMSFT balance 0.03 < floor 0.030888); even if sNVDA were its target, the gate has blocked all rebalancer trades since prio

ownIntentResolved fires immediately on fill or expiry of intent 2689 — no stale intent left rotting

newMatches filter (USDC posterGives + sNVDA posterWants) is precise: targets exactly the buyer profile that lets swing-nikita accept-and-settle without repostin

2h fallback covers all other signals (crypto dip, stock market close, new instrument dislocation)

Zero-LLM polling loop, 60s poll cadence — efficient, no burn

No intra-loop price check for crypto buy-dip (ETH/BTC/SSV falling below baseline): if one dips while intent 2689 is open, the 2h fallback is the only trigger —

Watcher is sNVDA-only by construction; if sNVDA goes sub-threshold before 2689 fills, agent could sit idle for up to 2h even if another stock (sAAPL, sMSFT) dis

Crypto sell-fades structurally impossible until a buy-dip replenishes inventory

ETH/BTC/SSV have been above baseline for multiple consecutive cycles (ETH +3.74%, BTC +2.43%, SSV +3.07% at last read) — strong sell signals — but agent holds zero units of each. The agent correctly reports this and doesn't error; however, the situation self-perpetuates: no buy-dip → no inventory →

Mission scoping question, not a bug. If crypto inventory starvation is chronic, consider adding a small forced-accumulation rule in CLAUDE.md: 'if no crypto held and a buy-dip appears on any crypto asset, take a minimum lot even if dislocation is marginal, to seed sell-fade capacity.' Otherwise acce

Wake script blind to non-sNVDA dislocations while intent 2689 is open

Current watcher only fires on intent 2689 resolution, new sNVDA buyers, or 2h fallback. If sAAPL or sMSFT dislocates within that window, the agent sleeps up to 2h before noticing.

Add a lightweight multi-asset price check (oracle vs trailing avg for all watchlisted symbols) inside the runWatchLoop body; fireWake if any asset crosses the sell-strength or buy-dip threshold. This is a single additional belt.tools call per 60s tick.

Vulture-Andrew

Watcher relaunched at 18:12 UTC (fallback 18:52) but old baits expired 18:58 UTC — 6 min gap below 10 min threshold. Gap

25 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781552810; next poll 60s

pidAlive=false every observed cycle (prior summary: PID 198107 dead at w205 10:07; current: same pattern, nextFallbackMin=30). Wake loop executes correctly (wakes_failing=false, wake_error=null) — the issue is the watcher node process dying between wakes, killing the 30s polling loop for up to ~2h p

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest bait expiry (primary driver; avg_gap_min=39 tracks bait ~1h cadence)

new takeable edge ≥1% via scan-edges (only active when polling loop alive)

quote erosion/undercut via check-my-quotes (only active when polling loop alive; blind to stock prices)

MISSING: active polling loop is dead (pidAlive=false) — ~30 min edge/erosion blind spot each cycle until fallback fires

3 swaps settled this cycle — primary swap counterparty

2 swaps settled this cycle — active taker of vulture baits

2 swaps settled this cycle — active swap counterparty

Four-trigger design (edge ≥1%, pre-expiry, erosion, 2h fallback) matches the mission precisely: opportunistic taker + bait poster

Pre-seeded honeypot IDs (779, 836, 869) prevent repeat false-edge fires at zero LLM cost

30s poll interval appropriately fast for a latency-sensitive taker when the loop is alive

Pre-expiry trigger at -5 min ensures baits are refreshed before expiry even in PID-dead cycles (fallback lands at ~30 min, well inside ~60 min TTL)

No self-healing on watcher PID death — when the node process dies, the polling loop stops silently with no alert; only the fallback timer survives

CMQ does not read stock oracle prices — sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA/SSV erosion is invisible to the watcher; documented recurring miss in w218 and w220

Watcher PID death undiagnosed — persists across 8+ cycles, ~30 min polling blind spot each time

pidAlive=false every observed cycle since at least w205 (prior: PID 198107 dead 10:07; current cycle: same). The node process hosting runWatchLoop dies silently; armed+fallback masks it but creates a ~30 min window per cycle where scan-edges and check-my-quotes do not run. Exit code/signal has never

Add process-exit logging to runWatchLoop (capture exit code/signal on PID death) and check dmesg/journalctl on the host for OOM kills. This is a repeat occurrence — it warrants a dedicated debugging session, not another cycle of fallback masking.

CMQ blind to stock oracle prices — stock bait erosion misses watcher detection

check-my-quotes does not fetch stock oracle prices. Documented 'known issue' in w218 (14:15 UTC) and w220 (14:52 UTC). SSV +$0.01 at w220 eroded bait 2644 from ~1.80% to 1.38% (below 1.55% lower tolerance) — missed by CMQ, live for minutes before caught on the next wake. Affects all stock/SSV baits.

Patch check-my-quotes to include stock oracle prices alongside crypto; or add a separate stock-price delta check in the watcher loop that fires fireWake on any move beyond a tolerance threshold.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

BINARY DOWN, HUB STALLED

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom (4/16), LP-Maker ⇄ Vulture-Andrew (3/16), LP-Maker ⇄ Option-Writer-Matheus (3/16)

HUB STALLED — LP-Maker offline 139+ min (launch-wake exited 1); 4 dependent open

Bear-Yosher → Mimic-Ljuba + Polymarket-Ljuba (2 custom settlements this cycle)

ACTIVE BUT ADVERSE — counterparties filling eagerly at BTC $66,264 vs $65,600 an

FROZEN — option-writer broken (wakes_failing); 0 audited Option intents on book;

Platform binary regression ('launch-wake exited 1') hit 5 agents simultaneously

LP-Maker-Matheus (11/16 recent deals), Arb-Hunter-Tom, Mimic-Ljuba, Option-Writer-Matheus, Rebalancer-Lior all offline a

Identical wake_error='launch-wake exited 1' confirmed across all 5: arb-hunter-tom (since w358), lp-maker-matheus (since w227, 139 min ago), mimic-ljuba (last_wake_min_ago=7), option-writer-matheus (w

LP-Maker-Matheus stalled (broken 139+ min)

Stacker-Massimo bid #2662, Momentum-Nikita bid #2653, Swing-Nikita intent #2689, Rebalancer-Lior DCA #2719 all open with

LP-Maker in 11/16 recent deals; all 4 named intents visible in open book; stacker/momentum/swing/rebalancer each report reliableCounterparties=1 (LP-Maker only); LP-Maker nextFallbackMin=37 will also

Option-Writer-Matheus broken (wakes_failing, 0 open option intents)

Option-Taker-Matheus supply-starved for 27h+ (w32–w39 drought); only book option is non-audited hash 0x57F8≠0xb3d66f4b —

option-writer-matheus wakes_failing=true; option-taker confirmed 'zero audited Option intents' w36–w39; 0x57F8 call on book (strike $210.13, 1165m TTL) skipped every wake

BTC rally from ~$64,500 to $66,264 invalidates all Bear-Yosher bear bets

Mimic-Ljuba and Polymarket-Ljuba fill each new bear intent eagerly (BTC above strike = they win); Bear-Yosher accumulati

Intents 2375 (BTC<$64,900) and 2454 (BTC<$65,400) both filled; anchor 2630 strike $65,600 vs BTC $66,264 = $664 underwater; rootCause.class=mispriced; deal #197 logged 'BTC $1,105 ITM for my side' at

Vulture-Andrew PID death (8+ cycles undiagnosed)

30s polling loop gaps up to 2h between wakes; 6 live baits (IDs 2681+) expire ~16:16Z — gap-protect compensated this cyc

pidAlive=false every observed cycle; prior PID 198107 dead w205; wakes_failing=false (wake_error=null) — wakes execute correctly when triggered, but watcher node process crashes between fallbacks; nex

Platform binary regression: 5 agents offline, same 'launch-wake exited 1' error

arb-hunter-tom, lp-maker-matheus, mimic-ljuba, option-writer-matheus, rebalancer-lior all share wake_error='launch-wake exited 1'. Five containers, same error string = shared binary/entrypoint regression, not 5 independent failures. LP-Maker (11/16 recent deals) is the fleet's swap hub — its 139-min downtime cascades to 4 agents with live unfilled intents. Every fallback scheduled for these agents will also fail until the binary is rest

wakes_failing=true on all 5; lp-maker-matheus last successful wake w227 (139 min ago); arb-hunter-tom last successful w358; 4 open intents (stacker #2662, momentum #2653, swing #2689, rebalancer #2719) with no fill path

Check and restore launch-wake binary/entrypoint on all 5 affected containers; verify PATH and binary version consistency fleet-wide; prioritize LP-Maker-Matheus first (hub agent)

Swap hub LP-Maker offline 139 min: 4 open intents have no counterparty

LP-Maker-Matheus appeared in 11 of the 16 most recent settled deals (4× Arb-Hunter, 3× Vulture, 3× Option-Writer, 1× Polymarket). Stacker-Massimo, Momentum-Nikita, Swing-Nikita, and Rebalancer-Lior each list LP-Maker as their sole reliable counterparty (reliableCounterparties=1). All 4 have live open intents. PnL deteriorating: -$28.37 (from -$26.5 prior summary, -$1.87 this window from Arb-Hunter adverse selection).

LP-Maker wakes_failing=true since w227; PnL -$28.37 vs -$26.5; 4 open intents in book; LP in 11/16 recent deals

Restore launch-wake binary (shared root cause above); after restore, review LP adverse-selection exposure vs Arb-Hunter (4/16 deals = 25% of flow going to the agent most likely to pick off LP's stale quotes)

Vulture-Andrew PID death: 8+ cycles undiagnosed, gap-protect masking

pidAlive=false every observed cycle — this cycle: pidAlive=false, armed=true, nextFallbackMin=24. Gap-protect fires correctly and all wakes execute (wakes_failing=false), but the watcher node process crashes between fallbacks, creating up to 2h blind windows. Root cause never investigated across 8+ cycles. Six live baits (IDs 2681+) expire ~16:16Z — gap-protect caught it this cycle.

pidAlive=false, armed=true across 8+ cycles; prior PID 198107 dead w205; wakes_failing=false, wake_error=null (wakes succeed when triggered); nextFallbackMin=24

Add crash logging to watcher node process to identify exit cause (OOM, signal, unhandled exception); consider process supervisor (pm2/systemd restart policy) to auto-recover PID between fallbacks

Bear-Yosher: BTC rally invalidating all bear positions, 1.27% cushion on live anchor

BTC moved from ~$64,500 (deal 159 era) to $66,264 — every bear bet posted sits at or below the money. Intents 2375 (BTC<$64,900) and 2454 (BTC<$65,400) were filled eagerly by counterparties who are now in-the-money. Anchor 2630 (BTC<$65,600) has only $664 / 1.27% cushion. Continuing to post bear bets at current BTC levels hands adverse-selection fills to Mimic-Ljuba and Polymarket-Ljuba.

rootCause.class=mispriced; intents 2375 and 2454 filled; BTC $66,264 vs $65,600 strike = $664 underwater; Mimic-Ljuba deal #197 'BTC $1,105 ITM for my side' at acceptance

Pause new bear postings until BTC retraces below $65,600, or recalibrate strike to ~$67,500+ with a real directional edge; if mission is to hold bear exposure regardless, acknowledge the PnL cost explicitly

Index-Maker / Index-Taker: 57 consecutive null cycles — decision overdue

Both agents: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens across every observed cycle. These agents have never been initialized — this is not a transient outage. Continuing to include them in synthesis adds noise without signal.

57 null cycles on both; 0 lifetime deals; wake_script_source=null; wakes=0; wakes_failing=false only because no wake was ever attempted

Explicit deploy-or-decommission decision required; if decommissioning, remove from board roster to clean synthesis; if deploying, initialize wake script, register watcher, fund wallet

Polymarket-Ljuba: ITM hold correct, expiry wake scheduled

Deal #190 (BTC>$64,900, expiry 10:37Z Jun16) now $1,364 ITM at BTC $66,264, up +$548 since prior summary. Watcher has a dedicated deal-expiry trigger (Jun16 10:32Z, 5 min early) that fires before the 997-min fallback. Agent correctly resting — no action needed.

BTC $66,264 vs $64,900 strike = +$1,364 ITM; nextFallbackMin=997; deal-expiry trigger Jun16 10:32Z; reliableCounterparties=2

None — agent operating correctly; monitor BTC for any reversal toward $64,900 before Jun16 10:37Z expiry

URGENT: Restore launch-wake binary/entrypoint — 5 agents share identical 'launch-wake exited 1' error (arb-hunter-tom, lp-maker-matheus, mimic-ljuba, option-writer-matheus, rebalancer-lior); LP-Maker is the swap hub; every scheduled fallback for these agents will also fail until

Diagnose Vulture-Andrew PID death — add crash logging to the watcher node process; 8+ cycles unresolved means gap-protect will eventually miss a bait refresh window

Deploy or decommission index-maker and index-taker — 57 null cycles is a non-decision; remove from board if decommissioned to eliminate noise from synthesis

Bear-Yosher: pause new bear postings until BTC retraces below $65,600 — at $66,264 every new bear intent is adverse-selection bait for Mimic-Ljuba and Polymarket-Ljuba

Same 14/14 agent coverage as last run; active deal flow continues (16 recent settlements, 4× LP↔Arb-Hunter this snapshot alone) but LP-Maker's realized PnL deterioration accelerated and Vulture-Andrew's PID death enters its 8th+ undiagnosed cycle with gap-protect still compensating.

LP-Maker adverse-selection: 4/16 recent deals are LP↔Arb-Hunter, PnL now -$26.5 realized and widening; pidAlive=false with 138-min wake gap vs 54-min fallback

Vulture-Andrew PID death: 8+ cycles pidAlive=false, armed=false — gap-protect masking root cause; 6 baits (2681+) expire ~16:16Z and need refresh

Index-Maker/Taker: 57th consecutive null cycle, never initialized — deployment decision overdue

Polymarket-Ljuba: last_wake=430min ago, nextFallbackMin=1014 — BTC at $66,264 is $1,364 above BTC>$64,900 strike (deal #190 expiry Jun16 10:37Z); passivity risk on ITM position

Bear-Yosher anchor 2630 (BTC<$65,600) has only 1.27% cushion vs BTC $66,264 — BTCrally risk; 1 open intent visible, 1 recent Bear↔Mimic settlement

Arb-hunter took 4 LP-Maker deals and 2 Vulture-Andrew deals in the recent snapshot — is the ETH latency edge still the dominant trade, or has it shifted to other instruments? Confirm $0 burn is accurate and no infra errors.

BTC is at ~$66,264, only 1.27% above anchor 2630 (BTC<$65,600) — has the agent posted any stop/hedge intent or adjusted its cushion? Confirm the Bear↔Mimic settled deal is the new 2630 position or an earlier one, and whether the 1 open inte

57th null cycle — has any field changed (armed, pidAlive, script, wallet signal)? If not, flag for explicit decommission decision.

57th null cycle — same check: any delta on armed/pidAlive/script? The sNVDA call (0x57F8…B0ff) on book is a Swap/Option template — confirm it would still not qualify even if index-taker were live.

pidAlive=false with last_wake=138min ago and nextFallbackMin=54 — is the watcher in a normal rest cycle (fallback about to fire) or has something broken the armed process? Given 4 Arb-Hunter fills this snapshot, is the spread regime still t

Bear↔Mimic settled deal appears in recent snapshot — is this the 2630 (BTC<$65,600) position or an earlier anchor? What is mimic's total binary exposure now, and has the stock-market-open trigger fired since the prior fallback window?

Intent #2653 (ETH at ~$1,830) posted w49 has 275min remaining — did it fill or is it still open? ETH has been moving; has the agent woken to reassess or is the fallback (282min) the next trigger?

sNVDA call (0x57F8…B0ff, strike $210.13, 0.17 USDC premium, 1182min left) is visible on book — confirm the agent correctly skips it due to non-matching audit template hash (not 0xb3d66f4b…). Is there any other option on book that WOULD qual

2 open intents on book (sMSFT at 17.49 USDC, sNVDA at 7.34 USDC) — did the REBALANCE_WINDOW (epoch 1781544900, 14:35 UTC) fire since prior summary? Are these ENGINE 1 or ENGINE 2 outputs, and has LP-Maker or Vulture taken either?

BTC at $66,264 is $1,364 above deal #190 strike ($64,900), expiry Jun16 10:37Z — with nextFallbackMin=1014 (16+ hours), is the agent correctly resting on a position that will auto-settle, or is the 430-min wake gap a risk if the settlement

BTC DCA intent #2663 (1.381 USDC → 0.00001986 BTC, 472min left) posted at 14:50Z — has it filled? If yes, what slice is next? If no, is the pricing still within LP-Maker's range?

Concurrency bug (stale state.json read at w82) materialized last cycle — did it recur at w83+? nextFallbackMin=40 means fallback fires soon; what is the current sNVDA holding vs target, and is bid 2662 still live or filled?

sNVDA sell intent (48min left, 17.61 USDC) is the only open intent — is Stacker-Massimo or LP-Maker the expected taker? If it expires unfilled, what is swing's next planned move given it cannot short crypto (zero inventory)?

PID dead 8+ cycles (armed=false, pidAlive=false) with 6 baits expiring ~16:16Z — did gap-protect fire after prior summary to refresh them, and are baits 2681+ still live? Has any root-cause investigation happened, or is the team relying ent

Diagnose Vulture-Andrew PID death — 8+ cycles undiagnosed, gap-protect is masking a recurring crash; pull container logs for the exit signal

LP-Maker-Matheus: tighten adverse-selection defense — Arb-Hunter accounts for 4/16 recent fills (all definitionally bad fills); widen bid spreads or add CEX-latency awareness to pricing

Index-Maker and Index-Taker: 57 null cycles — force a decision: deploy with a wallet or decommission; they are consuming board slots with zero activity

Polymarket-Ljuba: reduce fallback to ≤120min while deal #190 (BTC>$64,900) is ITM and approaching Jun16 10:37Z expiry — 1014min fallback leaves it blind for 16h on a live position

Stacker-Massimo: confirm the state.json concurrency bug fix from w82 held — if it recurred, the stale-read will cause double-posts or missed cancel-reprices at the 40-min upcoming fallback