Arb-Hunter-Tom

bestTake=null on both surfaces. No binary bets. Best swap near-miss #1294 +371bps mBTC unaffordable. SSV +100bps gap dir

new mSSV-sell (clip ≤1.7714, implied ≥ ssvCex×1.001) OR binary bet OR 30-min fallback

Summary: Counter still at 11 — no net-new fills in w192–w193 (+2 wakes since last run, now 20+ consecutive waits). One credible near-miss: w193 logged SSV +100bps gap but the direction check appears to have blocked it (log truncated mid-rejection: 'SSV +100bps gap dir ->'). Binary bet surface structurally dead — Bear-Yosher 752 min crashed = zero binary bets posting.

Deal counter frozen at 11 through w193. CEX-vs-oracle edge surfaced once at +100bps SSV (w193) but was blocked — direction leg check is the suspect. Binary surface dead while Bear-Yosher stays crashed. mBTC #1294 +371bps and #1280 +271bps are structurally unaffordable, not logic bugs.

Bear-Yosher (752 min dark) is the sole binary bet poster — 0 binary bets in book across w186–w193. LP-Maker-Matheus active (97 deals) but BTC/ETH clips exceed balance; SSV-sell path hit +100bps at w193 but was direction-rejected. Rebalancer-Lior #1280 is +271bps but clip unaffordable.

Sound and disciplined — correctly skipping unaffordable BTC/ETH clips, surfacing CEX margins per wake, logging near-misses precisely. The 100bps SSV block at w193 may be correct (direction genuinely wrong) or a logic false-negative — truncated log makes it unverifiable. Reasoning solves the right problem; the edge drought is the market's fault, not the agent's.

Binary bet appears (BINARY_BET_HASHES matched, intentId > HIGH_WATER=1302)

SSV-sell intent appears (clip ≤ 1.7714, implied ≥ CEX×1.001)

MISSING: no trigger for ETH/BTC swaps when/if wallet balance grows sufficient (acknowledged structural gap)

Primary swap counterparty — 97 deals, ok health; SSV-sell path is the live edge; BTC/ETH clips structurally unaffordable

Sole binary bet poster; arb's primary surface depends on it

CRASHED — 752 min dark, zero bets postin

Could post binary bets arb could take; 16 deals, ok health — no evidence of recent binary bet posts

Posted #1280 (+271bps) and #1294 (+371bps) — both mBTC, both unaffordable clip

Possible: SSV +100bps gap at w193 blocked by direction check — if the direction rejection is a false negative (e.g. leg polarity check inverted), this was a fillable trade. mBTC #1294 +371bps is a balance-floor miss, not a logic miss. Binary surface: no bets to take, no opportunity to miss.

HIGH_WATER filter (id > 1302) prevents spurious re-fires on stale intents

Binary bet template hash set is precise — no false positives

SSV CEX fetch with 30s cache limits external call rate

SSV_BALANCE guard (clip ≤ 1.7714) prevents overfill

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a taker waiting on book events

Skips BTC/ETH/stocks explicitly to reduce structural churn — correct given balance constraints

SSV_BALANCE hardcoded at 1.7714 — stale after any fill, requires manual script update

Direction rejection at w193 is silent: 'SSV +100bps gap dir ->' truncated with no logged detail — cannot verify if correct or a bug

Log the exact direction-check rejection path when a ≥50bps SSV gap is blocked (print which leg is wrong-direction and at what implied price) — this is the one change that makes the w193 near-miss verifiable and either confirms correct behav

SSV_BALANCE hardcoded — stale after fills

SSV_BALANCE = 1.7714 is a literal in the script source. If arb-hunter-tom fills an SSV-sell intent, the constant is stale until the next manual script update, and the balance guard will over-restrict or under-restrict fills.

Fetch SSV wallet balance live via belt at each poll iteration (or once per wake) instead of using a hardcoded literal.

Direction rejection at w193 unverifiable — potential missed fill

w193 logged 'SSV +100bps gap dir ->' with the reasoning truncated. The +100bps exceeds the 50bps MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT threshold, so the only remaining gate is the direction check. If that check inverts the legs (wantsLeg/givesLeg polarity), a valid 100bps trade was blocked.

Add a verbose log line inside the direction-check branch: print the intent id, clip, impliedPrice, ssvCex, and which direction leg is failing so the next wake can confirm correct or incorrect rejection.

Bear-Yosher crash eliminates binary bet supply fleet-wide

Bear-Yosher (752 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false) is the primary binary bet poster. With it crashed, arb-hunter-tom's binary surface has been structurally dead for 12+ hours — 0 binary bets in book across all recent wakes.

Fleet: resurrect Bear-Yosher or route binary bet posting to Mimic-Ljuba as a temporary supply source so the taker surface has material to work with.

Bear-Yosher

Exactly-one-resting invariant violated (836 expired). Posted 869 to maintain bear anchor. No BinaryBets available to tak

intent 869 fill/expiry OR new BinaryBet OR ETH/BTC +1.5% OR deal 75 near-expiry OR 4h

Watcher process died twice in succession: w40 noted 'PID 6802 gone', w41 re-armed a new watcher, that watcher also died (armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null now). 4h fallback set at w41 (~15:17 UTC June 10) did not fire — process died before it could. No wallet activity (tokens_5h_usd=0)

Intent 869 fill or expiry (expired ~hours ago, watcher was dead)

New BinaryBet on book (seenBinaryIds baseline, fires on delta)

Deal 75 near-expiry: fires at 1781139324ms (00:53 UTC June 11)

4h fallback (~15:17 UTC June 10) — MISSED, process dead

All 7 BinaryBet settled deals are Bear↔Mimic; mimic-ljuba takes BELOW-strike BinaryBets bear-yosher posts — direct dependency

Arb-hunter takes near-decided binary bets; could theoretically take bear-yosher's BELOW-strike posts if sufficiently near expiry

Swap-only counterparty; no BinaryBet role

Fires on own intent resolution (869) — correct trigger for a maker maintaining exactly-one-resting invariant

Scans for new BinaryBets via delta set (newMatches against seenBinaryIds) — precise, no false positives on stale book

Adverse price gates (+1.5% ETH/BTC) are correctly directional for a crypto-bear: exits if conviction invalidated

Deal 75 near-expiry firing 5 min early (DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS) is a thoughtful settlement prep trigger

4h fallback present; zero-LLM; 60s poll cadence appropriate for crypto price volatility

No self-resurrection path: if the watcher process dies (as it has twice), nothing brings it back — armWatcher has no supervisor

fallbackMs=4h is the ONLY out-of-band recovery, and it failed when the process died before 4h elapsed

Watcher process dies without external resurrection path

Bear-yosher's watcher has died twice in succession (w40 PID 6802, w41 successor). armWatcher's 4h fallback cannot fire if the process is dead. No supervisor, cron, or external watchdog exists to detect pidAlive=false and restart. This is a fleet-wide platform gap — any agent whose watcher dies is pe

Implement a fleet-level watchdog (cron or supervisor) that polls pidAlive for all agents on a 15-30 min interval and triggers a wake on false. This is a core/SDK concern, not per-agent.

Deal 75 betExpiry in ~2h — time-critical, watcher cannot fire

Deal 75 betExpiry is 1781139624 (June 11 00:58 UTC), ~2h from now. The w41 watcher was set to fire at 00:53 UTC (5 min early) for settlement prep. With watcher dead, this event will be missed unless the agent is manually woken before 00:53 UTC.

Manual wake of bear-yosher immediately. On next wake the agent should detect deal 75 near-expiry and handle settlement. Priority window closes in ~2h.

Index-Maker

Summary: 16th consecutive null cycle — zero delta confirmed. address=null (no wallet ever provisioned), 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false with no fallback scheduled. No operator action detected since last run. Health record remains 'unknown' — not a runtime crash, simply never initialized. Counterpart index-taker

Confirmed 16th null cycle. All metrics zero or null; no wallet, no wake script, no watcher fallback, no on-chain trace. This is not a crash — the agent was never started. The IndexBasket market (BTC+AAPL+NVDA) cannot form until an operator provisions a funded address.

address=null in snapshot; tokens_lifetime_usd=0; wakes=0; wake_script_source=null; settled_deals='not-indexed'; no watcher armed or scheduled

N/A — agent has never executed a reasoning cycle. Cannot assess.

MISSING: no watcher exists; nothing can fire this agent until a wallet is provisioned and a wake script is deployed

designed as the SHORT-side counterparty for LONG IndexBasket intents this agent would post

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never run; no book presence to evaluate

wake_script_source is null — no script exists at all

Provision a funded address first; the wake script question is moot until then

No wallet provisioned — agent is structurally inert

address=null in snapshot record for the 16th consecutive cycle. No funded address means no intent can be posted, no watcher can operate with real keys, and no on-chain activity can exist. This is an operator action item, not a runtime failure.

Operator must provision a funded USDC address and deploy a wake script for index-maker (and symmetrically for index-taker) before the IndexBasket segment can participate in the fleet.

Index-Taker

Summary: 16th consecutive null cycle — zero delta again. Funnel grew 1292→1303 (+11 intents this cycle), still zero IndexBasket anywhere. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, unchanged across all dimensions. Index-maker (health=unknown, 0 deals, 0 intents ever) has never posted the upstream instrument; until it does, inde

16 consecutive null cycles; 1303 intents in funnel, zero IndexBasket. Index-taker is structurally blocked: it is a pure downstream responder and index-maker has never posted a single IndexBasket intent. This is not an index-taker failure — it is an index-maker deployment failure.

1303 total intents in funnel, 0 IndexBasket template observed across all cycles. Index-maker: health=unknown, 0 deals, 0 intents ever. Index-taker: 0 wakes, $0 tokens lifetime, wake_script_source=null — never activated.

No reasoning to evaluate — agent has never woken. The agent's design (fail-closed audit before crossing) is sound in principle, but it is entirely moot until index-maker produces an intent to audit.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null) — cannot trigger on IndexBasket intents appearing in the book

MISSING: no fallback cadence — nextFallbackMin=null, so no heartbeat or periodic re-check

sole upstream producer of IndexBasket intents; index-taker has no other counterparty

dark — health=unknown, 0 deals, 0 intent

none — zero IndexBasket intents have appeared in the 1303-intent funnel across 16 cycles; nothing to take

wake_script_source=null — no watcher exists at all; agent cannot observe the book or respond to any event

no fallback heartbeat means no periodic check even if index-maker eventually posts

Deploy a wake script that polls the intent book for IndexBasket template intents on a reasonable cadence (e.g. every 5–10 min fallback); trigger an audit+cross attempt immediately when one appears. Without this, even if index-maker activate

No wake script deployed

wake_script_source=null — index-taker has no watcher and cannot activate under any condition, even if index-maker posts an IndexBasket intent tomorrow.

Write and deploy current.ts for index-taker: poll for IndexBasket intents in the book, fire on match, include a 5–10 min fallback.

Dependent on index-maker which has never activated

Index-maker (health=unknown, 0 deals) has never posted a single IndexBasket intent across 1303 funnel intents. Index-taker's entire mission is gated on this. Both agents are effectively undeployed.

Prioritize deploying index-maker first — index-taker is useless without it. Confirm index-maker has a funded pool, a wake script, and a working indexer endpoint before debugging index-taker further.

LP-Maker-Matheus

#1292/#1296 inverted by oracle rise — free options removed immediately. #1295 ETH bid -38.4bps too wide to rebuild thin

old cluster pre-expiry ts 1781136972 (~00:36 UTC) or new fillable swap | 40min fallback

12/12 quotes posted; 6 active counterparties (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, 0xBd6a…9863, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita); deal velocity limited by taker arrivals not LP quality. w85–w90 show 0 fills across multiple wakes despite tight quotes — thin taker side, not mispricing.

Cluster expiry guard: EXPIRY_FIRE_TS_SEC=1781133228 (~23:18 UTC) fires 5min before #1281–#1286 cluster expires

New fillable swap: newMatches() detects net-new intents where posterWants ∈ HOLD set

MISSING: inversion/spread-check trigger — concurrent-session inversions detected only at next poll (60s lag), causing arb bleed per event

Active arb taker; resurrection confirmed armed=true/pidAlive=true; appears 8× in recent deal list including w84 arb fill

Most frequent recent counterparty (~8 fills in tail); health=stuck but still settling LP intents

5 recent fills but current 4.96 USDC intent is sub-LP-minimum lot — won't clear until lior posts ≥12 USDC

2 recent fills; w23 20 USDC intent on book (18 min left) is above minimum

External wallet; 7 fills in recent tail — reliable taker source outside named fleet

Expiry cluster guard pins exact ts 1781133228 (5min before #1281–#1286 cluster) — no stale quotes

newMatches() on HOLD set: only fires on intents LP can profitably fill, not its own stale posts

60s poll interval — not sub-minute; patient cadence appropriate for 22-min avg gap

No oracle price guards (per playbook rule — avoids loop storms)

50min fallback ensures watcher doesn't go dark between clusters

No spread/inversion check: concurrent-session inversions (flagged w84, w87, w88) are discovered only at next 60s poll tick, allowing ~1min of arb exposure per e

Concurrent-session inversion recurs on every oracle move

w84, w87, w88 all report concurrent session posting inverted bids when oracle moves positive. Each event costs ~$0.076 arb loss plus a cleanup wake. Root: two watcher sessions posting simultaneously create crossed spreads. Watcher detects it reactively at next poll (up to 60s exposure).

Add inversion check in runWatchLoop body: compare own bid vs own ask prices per asset from readOpenIntents; fireWake immediately on cross. Also investigate why two concurrent watcher sessions arise — may need PID lock enforcement in armWatcher.

Token cost critical: $76.51/5h = 53.4% of pool

96 deals settling at $0.82/wake average; 87 wakes × $0.82 ≈ $71 but 5h cost is $76.51 with 80/87 repeat wakes. At this burn rate LP's token pool (~$143 implied at 53.4%) exhausts in ~5h. Repeat-wake rate 92% (80/87) suggests most wakes are maintenance not fills.

Core/SDK: add per-agent token budget cap and alert threshold. Agent-side: w85 correctly no-ops when nothing actionable — ensure repeat-wake suppression logic is consistently applied to avoid unnecessary LLM calls on zero-action wakes.

Mimic-Ljuba

No BinaryBet on board to accept; no recent flow to mirror. Board empty for 10+ consecutive wakes (wakes 57–67). One deli

new BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge (or 60 min fallback)

Summary: Prior: Bear-Yosher was the sole source of BinaryBet flow; Mimic's 6 in-flight deals were safe (oracle-settled, Bear's liveness irrelevant). This cycle: Bear crashed 392 min ago and the board has gone dark for BinaryBets — wakes w55–w60 all returned 'edge floor ≥3pp unmet / board empty.' Mimic correctly identified no takeable binary flow and self-originated a

Mimic is alive and correctly waiting, but 14/16 settled deals were ↔Bear-Yosher — the sole BinaryBet source is dark. Self-originated Intent #1088 (BTC<$62k, ~18:47 UTC expiry) is the only live exposure. With Bear down and option-writer-matheus/polymarket-ljuba not posting BinaryBets, Mimic has 0 reliable counterparties until Bear restarts or a new binary poster emerges.

14 of 16 settled deals are BinaryBet↔Bear-Yosher; 1 custom↔Bear-Yosher; board has been empty of BinaryBets across wakes w55–w60 post-crash. option-writer-matheus (16 deals) posts Options not BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba (2 deals) posts small-shade binary but zero BinaryBet-template intents visible o

Sound for the wrong upstream problem. Mimic enforces the ≥3pp edge floor correctly, applies the one-deliberate-move rule appropriately, and self-originated a bet when the board was empty — disciplined execution. But self-originating a directional BTC bear bet ('w61: self-originated directional bet on BTC bear momentum') is a mild mission stretch: the mission is 'mirror recent BinaryBets and accept

Intent #1088 filled or expired (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet templateHash match on open book (newMatches scan, 60s poll)

66-min fallback (calibrated to #1088 ~18:47 UTC expiry)

Only consistent BinaryBet poster; source of 14/16 Mimic deals

CRASHED — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 3

Posts Options (different template); Mimic's watcher filters for BinaryBet templateHash only — correct exclusion given mission

Mission includes 'make a small-shade binary only' — could post BinaryBet-template intents, but none visible on book this cycle

active, 2 deals, but 0 BinaryBets posted

Takes near-decided binaries — could take Mimic's self-posted #1088 if it becomes near-decided; not a flow source for Mimic

None within mission scope. option-writer-matheus and polymarket-ljuba are not posting BinaryBet-template intents on the book. No takeable BinaryBets have appeared since Bear crashed. Intent #1088 (self-posted) is the only live binary activity.

Fires on ownIntentResolved for #1088 — correct: Mimic must act when its live exposure settles

Filters strictly by BinaryBet templateHash — no false fires on swaps or options

66-min fallback calibrated to #1088 expiry (~18:47 UTC) — tight, purposeful, not a generic poll

60s poll cadence is appropriate for binary bet flow (not sub-minute spam)

seenIds baseline pattern avoids firing on stale book state at startup

No trigger for new intents from polymarket-ljuba's binary-making leg — if ljuba posts a BinaryBet, the newMatches scan catches it, but there's no direct subscri

Add a secondary fallback condition: if Bear-Yosher's watcher comes back online (pidAlive check via a fleet-status file), fire immediately — Mimic's primary flow source restarting is the highest-value event to wake on, currently invisible to

100% counterparty concentration on Bear-Yosher

14/16 deals are ↔Bear-Yosher. When Bear is down, Mimic's copy-trading engine has nothing to copy and degrades to self-posting directional bets — a different, unvalidated strategy. Net drawdown is $36.38 (-36% of $100 starting capital) across 16 deals with only $0.59 realized PnL, suggesting the mirr

Extend Mimic's CLAUDE.md to recognize polymarket-ljuba and option-writer-matheus as secondary binary flow sources; add logic to monitor their posted intents as copy targets when Bear is offline. Also review whether the $0.59 PnL / 16 deals win-rate is acceptable or signals systematic mispricing in t

Self-posting directional bets is a mission stretch

w61 self-originated a BTC-bear directional bet (#1088) when the board was empty. The mission is 'mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets' — not 'post original bets when flow is absent.' This is Mimic acting as a maker, not a copy-trader, without validated edge.

Add an explicit fallback policy to CLAUDE.md: if board is empty for N consecutive wakes, hold capital rather than self-post, OR gate self-posting on a stricter conviction threshold (e.g. ≥10pp edge, recent on-chain price momentum confirmation).

Binary bet flow collapses when Bear-Yosher is offline

Bear is the only consistent BinaryBet poster. Its crash leaves Mimic, arb-hunter-tom, and polymarket-ljuba with no binary flow to act on. 10 live Bear↔Mimic deals are resolving from pre-crash inventory — after they settle, the binary market is structurally frozen until Bear restarts.

Restart Bear-Yosher. If that's not immediate, incentivize polymarket-ljuba to increase its 'small-shade binary' posting frequency as a bridge supply — currently 2 lifetime deals is insufficient to sustain Mimic.

Momentum-Nikita

SSV slow momentum 6.00pp gap decisively above 2pp edge. Took resting book order #1304 at fair value immediately (expires

intent-1309 resolve / new SSV seller / US open 13:30 UTC / 8h fallback

Intent #745 ($51.25 USDC SSV swap, 1h window) expired unfilled due to illiquidity; re-posted with 8h window, still unfilled. LP-Maker-Matheus (94 deals, 10 live quotes) is the only swap hub — but timing/expiry windows have prevented a fill. No open intents currently.

Relative gap ≥2pp between any two assets' returns vs baseline (60s poll)

MISSING: baseline-age cap — no re-capture if baseline is >N hours old; currently 428 min stale with no refresh until fallback fires

Sole swap hub with 10 live quotes and $65.96/5h burn — should fill a delivered swap at momentum-sized notional (>>12 USDC floor)

Natural counterparty if momentum direction is opposite to Lior's rebalance target, but lot-size mismatch (Lior posts 4 USDC vs momentum's ~5

Baseline captured from LIVE oracle at first poll — not hardcoded from prior wake; this was the correct fix

Measures relative gap between assets (leader vs runner-up), which is the actual decision variable for momentum rotation

Full 6-asset universe (BTC, ETH, SSV, sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT) matches the mission's 'hunt strongest mover'

Skips oracle-read failures rather than firing on incomplete data

4h fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient momentum agent; 60s poll is reasonable

No baseline-age cap: the baseline set at process start (now 428 min old) is never refreshed within a long-running loop — a 2pp gap that opened and closed since

w16 logs reference 'both lookbacks' but this script has only one baseline; the discrepancy suggests the LLM may be reasoning about a dual-lookback design that i

Baseline ages unboundedly within a single watcher process

The baseline captured at first poll is now 428 min old. A momentum gap that opened and closed in that window was invisible to the watcher. The fallback in ~57 min will fix the current staleness, but every 4h cycle has the same decay — by hour 3 the baseline is already 3h stale.

In the watcher loop, track `baselineCapturedAt = Date.now()` and reset `baseline = null` when age exceeds 2h. The next poll re-derives from live oracle. No structural change to the trigger logic required.

'Both lookbacks' mentioned in w16 but not implemented in w17 script

w16 log: 'Edge threshold unmet on both lookbacks.' The live w17 script has one baseline (first-poll snapshot). Either the LLM is hallucinating a dual-lookback it didn't deploy, or w16 used a different script. If dual-lookback (e.g., 30min + 4h baseline) was intended, it improves signal quality but i

Audit w16's deployed watcher source (if archived) against w17's. If dual-lookback was intentional, add a secondary rolling baseline (e.g., re-captured every 60 min) alongside the process-start baseline to confirm signal across timeframes.

Option-Taker-Matheus

new audited Option intent appears OR deals settle window OR 23h fallback

Summary: Holds sNVDA call #118 (strike $203.69, prem $0.25, expiry ~17:37 UTC June 11) and put #119 (strike $201.75, prem $0.23, expiry ~18:31 UTC June 11) — unchanged since w26. Now 201 min since last wake (up from 140 min last run). Watcher armed/pidAlive=true, scanning every 60s; no new audited options on book. Correct behavior: supply from option-writer-matheus i

No new option intents since deal #119 (201 min ago) — the taker is correctly idle. Its 1141-min fallback fires ~45 min before deal #118's MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956), matching the settlement window by design. This is a functioning taker with a quiet supplier, not a broken agent.

All 4 settled deals trace to option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). Writer's nextFallbackMin=1144 confirms ~19h of silence ahead; 0 audited options on book for 201 min. Taker watcher polls every 60s and has not fired — book is genuinely empty.

Sound and on-mission. w25 (call #118): 'cheap optionality, 1.41%-OTM, 23h tail, 20x max pay' — quantitative. w26 (put #119): 'tight-to-the-money, thin premium, volatile sNVDA, 24h tail' — quantitative. No churn; silence between wakes is correct taker discipline when supply is absent.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f…ad63) — detected via 60s poll of open book

Settle window: nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956, ~17:37 UTC June 11 — 5 min before deal #118 expiry)

23h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1141, fires ~16:52 UTC June 11 — ~45 min before settle window)

Sole option supplier; all 4 deals sourced here. Writer is resting (~19h nextFallbackMin=1144) — next posts expected around w27/w28.

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents — could theoretically compete for the same intents, but does not supply options

None. Book has had 0 new audited option intents since w26. Watcher is polling correctly and would fire immediately on any new post.

Fires on new audited-hash option intents — exactly the signal this taker needs; can't fire on generic book activity

Settle-window trigger (MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS) aligns the 23h fallback with deal #118 expiry — agent wakes just before settlement, not randomly

First-poll baseline (seenIntentIds=null guard) prevents false-fires on stale intents already taken

60s cadence appropriate for an option book that posts infrequently

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to deal #118's window. After deals #118/#119 settle, any future deal taken will have a different expiry — the settle-

Replace the hardcoded MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS with a dynamic read of the agent's open deals' earliest expiry (subtract 300s), refreshed each poll loop. This keeps the settle-window trigger accurate after each new take without requiring a manual sc

Hardcoded settle-window timestamp goes stale after new deals

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 targets deal #118's expiry. Once #118/#119 settle and the agent takes a new option (different expiry), this check will never fire (past timestamp) — settle-timing precision is lost for all future deals.

Dynamically derive MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS each poll: read open deals, take min(expiry) - 300s. Store in a variable updated each loop iteration.

Single-supplier dependency on option-writer-matheus

4/4 deals from one counterparty. Writer is in a ~19h rest cycle (nextFallbackMin=1144). If writer crashes or shifts mission, taker has zero supply. No other agent currently posts audited-hash options.

Encourage a second option writer on the same audited template hash, or have option-writer-matheus post smaller batches more frequently so the taker has a steadier flow.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Engine 1 paused indefinitely (7 unfilled options proved calm market has zero buyer demand for premium). Engine 2 stable

vol spike ≥1% (any asset) OR ranking rotation (worst-2 stocks) OR new buyer option intent OR 120-min fallback

Engine 1: 7 prior unfilled options, 0 open option intents on book now, option-taker-matheus (4 lifetime deals) is live but not posting option-buy requests. Engine 2: no ranking rotation, no allocation drift >5% — correctly idle. Market's fault, not agent's.

vol spike ≥1% on ETH/BTC/sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL (polled every 60 s)

new 'unknown'-kind intent on book (option buyer proxy)

new tradable intent in agent's universe (USDC/ETH/BTC/sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL)

MISSING: ranking rotation signal (Engine 2 could fire on a new worst-2 rotation without relying on the heartbeat)

Direct buyer for Engine 1 options; 4 lifetime deals, health=ok

Swap counterparty for Engine 2 portfolio swaps; 96 deals, deep liquidity

Buys mispriced Options/BinaryBets; 2 deals — could take Engine 1 options if priced attractively vs Polymarket

Polls prices every 60 s — vol detection is fine-grained despite 60-min heartbeat label

Baseline prices updated to w49 actuals (ETH 1617.16, BTC 61439.38) each run

Covers all 5 assets in the trading universe

Option-buyer proxy via 'unknown' intent kind is a reasonable heuristic given no option-specific intent field

Zero-LLM, has fallback, can't fire on 'book non-empty' generically

No ranking-rotation trigger: Engine 2 could need to act if sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT/BTC/ETH worst-2 composition changes between heartbeats — currently only caught at 6

seenIntents baseline re-captured on every cold watcher start, creating a potential single-poll blind spot on restart

Engine 2 rotation not watcher-driven

Ranking changes (worst-2 of 5 assets) are only discovered at the 60-min fallback. A ranking flip between heartbeats could delay an Engine 2 rebalance trade by up to 60 min.

Add a lightweight ranking snapshot to the poll loop; if worst-2 composition differs from the cached snapshot, fireWake('ranking rotation: <old> → <new>').

Option pricing not adjusted for persistent no-demand signal

7 unfilled options prove the current premium is above market-clearing. Engine 1 is paused rather than repriced — correct given the agent's rules, but the pause is now open-ended with no re-entry price-discovery plan.

Consider a 'reduce premium by X% after N consecutive unfilled' rule so Engine 1 can re-enter at a market-clearing price rather than waiting indefinitely for a vol spike to justify current premium levels.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL position well-anchored within weekly horizon, no exit triggers hit. No new dir

Summary: Still holding 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 entry (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / horizon Jun12 20:00 UTC). No wakes since w26 (10:39 UTC Jun 10, ~592 min ago) — watcher armed/pidAlive=true with nextFallbackMin=1209 (~20h, ≈ Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback). The ~10h silence is indirect price evidence: watcher polls every 60s and neither stop nor forward has triggered

Correctly armed and silent — 592 min dark with no stop/forward trigger is confirmation, not a problem. The Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback (1209 min out) is the designed pre-expiry assessment wake; lp-maker-matheus (97 deals, active) is the natural exit venue when it fires.

Only 2 settled deals lifetime ($0.75 PnL) — low deal count reflects thin mispriced inventory in the book (18 repeat wakes out of 26 total with 'no mispriced opportunities'), not agent failure. Agent is now in single-position hold mode awaiting exit, so deal formation is not the active objective.

Sound and solving the right problem. The agent correctly identified needsApproval=true at w26 and preemptively approved on-chain before expiry pressure — that's proactive and mission-critical. The 18 repeat wakes of 'no mispriced opportunities' is not churn; the book genuinely lacks Polymarket-mispriced binaries/options (bear-yosher dark removes the main mispriced binary supply). No evidence of wr

sAAPL oracle <= $277.34 (stop, -4.6% from current)

sAAPL oracle >= $303.75 (forward, +4.5% from current)

nowTs >= 1781294400 (Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon expiry)

new binary/option intent appears in open book

Primary exit venue for the sAAPL swap — 97 deals, active, quotes swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory

Writes options that polymarket-ljuba can value against Polymarket distribution and take; 17 deals, ok

Posts BinaryBets that are primary mispriced-binary taker targets — but 752 min crashed, removing the main supply of takeable binary inventor

Posts BinaryBets mirroring recent activity — could offer Polymarket-comparable binaries, 16 deals, ok

Unmeasurable for the binary/option taker side while bear-yosher (primary mispriced binary source) is crashed — no way to know if its 5 live contracts approaching expiry (bear↔mimic) were takeable at Polymarket-mispriced rates without the agent waking to check. The watcher's new-intent trigger would have fired if any appeared in the book during the 592-min window, so likely none hit the threshold.

Price triggers (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75) fire within the 60s poll — immediate exit on price move

Horizon expiry trigger (Jun12 20:00 UTC) is exact blockchain-time check, not wall-clock drift

Fallback Jun11 20:00 UTC gives a 24h pre-expiry assessment window to source maker candidates before pressure

New binary/option intent trigger correctly wakes on taker opportunities matching the mission

Zero-LLM watcher; fallback properly clamped to max(computed, 4h) to avoid negative delays

Reads horizonTs from state.json with hardcoded fallback — resilient to state corruption

The fallback FALLBACK_MS is computed at watcher-arm time using Date.now() — if the watcher process restarts, the computed fallback shifts; should read from stat

Persist the fallback timestamp to state.json at arm time and re-read it on restart, same pattern as horizonTs — prevents drift if the watcher process is restarted between now and Jun11 20:00 UTC.

Fallback timestamp recomputed on restart, could drift

FALLBACK_MS uses Date.now() at arm time. If watcher restarts before Jun11 20:00 UTC, the fallback shifts forward (up to 4h floor). Low urgency — the 4h floor prevents catastrophic drift — but could delay the pre-expiry assessment wake.

Write fallbackTs = 1781208000 to state.json at arm time; read it back on watcher init, same as horizonTs pattern already in the script.

Bear-yosher dark removes primary mispriced-binary supply

Bear-yosher (752 min crashed) is the main source of BinaryBets this agent values against Polymarket. With it dark, the 'no mispriced opportunities' pattern will continue regardless of how often polymarket-ljuba wakes. 5 bear↔mimic contracts approaching expiry (betExpiry ~1781139624, ~00:58 UTC Jun11

Resurrect bear-yosher or confirm mimic-ljuba posts enough standalone binary supply. Consider a manual nudge wake before the Jun11 00:58 UTC expiry cluster to check takeable bear↔mimic contracts.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC #1294 filled this wake — only discovery action needed. No capital to deploy until stocks open and sMSFT trim generat

US stock open 2026-06-11T13:30 UTC — sMSFT trim + BTC DCA

Summary: Intent #1294 BTC filled at +4% premium in w45 — the escalation ladder cleared the immediate blockage, but not by correcting lot size: the agent never bumped the 4.96 USDC lot above LP's 12 USDC floor, it simply found a non-LP taker willing to fill at elevated premium. Agent correctly diagnosed 'no capital to deploy until stocks open' and set a precise time-t

BTC gap (-7.16pp → partially addressed via #1294 filled at +4%) is temporarily resolved; agent is now correctly parked waiting for 13:30 UTC June 11 stock open to execute sMSFT trim and the next BTC DCA slice. The +4% fill cost is real overpayment: had the lot been ≥12 USDC the LP would have filled at oracle +~1.5%.

Lot size ~4.96 USDC sits below LP-Maker-Matheus's 12 USDC fill floor (evidenced by 4+ oracle-price and low-premium failures before +4% finally attracted a non-LP taker for #1294). Agent's 7 settled counterparties: LP-Maker-Matheus ×3, Arb-Hunter-Tom ×1, Momentum-Nikita ×1, 0xBd6a ×1, LP ×1 — the LP

Sound execution mechanics, wrong lever. The agent's wake-by-wake reasoning is disciplined — it identifies the largest portfolio gap, commits capital, and logs escalation rationale. But the escalation ladder (premium) is treating a lot-size problem as a price-discovery problem. Five failed fills before +4% worked is evidence the agent never diagnosed the fill floor; it just kept turning the premium

Time-based: fires when Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS (2026-06-11T13:30:00Z)

Fallback: 2026-06-11T14:00:00Z or +5 min if that's past

MISSING: no live-intent monitoring during the wait (if #1294 had expired unfilled during this sleep, agent would not wake early to repost)

Primary counterparty (3 of last 7 deals), deep USDC inventory, but 12 USDC fill floor blocks sub-5 USDC lots

Filled 1 recent deal, takes delivered swaps opportunistically, no floor constraint known

1 historical fill, mission is to concentrate into strong movers — may take BTC buy-side if momentum aligns

Fades dislocations via swaps; BTC at -7pp from target could look like a reversion buy if swing's trailing avg agrees

none — open_intents=0 and agent correctly identified no deployable capital between w45 and stock open; 0xb591 external BTC intent (15 USDC, 21m TTL) in book per Step-1 but agent is a DCA poster not a taker, so this is not a miss

Event-driven trigger (stock open timestamp) rather than blind timer — fires exactly when action becomes possible

Label is specific and actionable: 'US stock open 2026-06-11T13:30 UTC — sMSFT trim + BTC DCA'

Fallback is 30 min after target (14:00 UTC) — generous but bounded; armed=true/pidAlive=true confirms it's live

Zero-LLM watcher, no book dependency (correct: a DCA agent doesn't need to watch the book between planned wakes)

No live-intent guard: if a posted intent expires during this sleep window, the watcher won't wake early to repost

FALLBACK_MS uses Date.now() at script-write time, not at armWatcher call time — if the process restarts close to 14:00 UTC the fallback collapses to 5 min minim

Add a secondary watch condition: if any live intent's expiry < now + 5 min, fire early to repost rather than letting it silently expire. This prevents the silent-expiry gap that caused the BTC DCA to burn 4+ wakes re-posting.

Premium escalation instead of lot-size correction

5 escalation steps (oracle → +1.47% → +2.07% → +3% → +4%) over multiple wakes to fill a ~4.96 USDC BTC intent that LP won't fill below 12 USDC. Each step overpays vs just sizing up the lot. The +4% fill of #1294 cost the agent measurably more than oracle; realized_pnl_usd=-1.78 reflects this drag.

In CLAUDE.md: when N consecutive fill failures occur on a lot, first try doubling lot size to 10–12 USDC before escalating premium. If budget doesn't allow 12 USDC, explicitly note the fill floor as the blocker and wait rather than burning premium escalation steps.

Silent intent expiry between planned wakes

Current watcher sleeps until stock open (~13:30 UTC) with no guard on live intent expiry. If an intent is posted near wake time and expires silently, the next wake discovers the gap and re-derives the same escalation from scratch.

Add expiry-watch to current.ts: fire early if any live intent expires within the sleep window (see suggestedChange above).

LP fill floor not surfaced to posting agents

LP-Maker-Matheus's 12 USDC fill floor is not queryable by rebalancer-lior at post time. If it were exposed in the book metadata or LP's intent annotations, rebalancer could self-correct lot size before the first post rather than discovering the floor via repeated failures.

LP should annotate its open intents with a min_lot_usdc field; the SDK's fill-estimation helper should surface this so posting agents can auto-size lots above the floor.

Stacker-Massimo

Bid is tracking oracle correctly (posted at oracle×0.99 when oracle=$207.92; oracle unchanged). No sweepable sell-side.

Summary: Pre-open hold continues correctly. Watcher countdown has advanced from nextFallbackMin=189 (last run) to 129 now — consistent with ~60 min elapsed, no drift. Still armed (pidAlive=true) for epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC, ~99 min away from ~11:51 UTC now). Portfolio unchanged: 0.004928 sNVDA ($1.02), 9.00 USDC free. Both settled deals were with LP-Maker-Matheus

Watcher is correctly armed to fire at 13:30 UTC equity open (epoch 1781098200, fallback at 14:00 UTC). LP-Maker-Matheus is live with sNVDA quotes (12 USDC lot posted), and Stacker has 2 confirmed fills with LP-Maker proving the sub-lot fill path works. 9.00 USDC remains to deploy at 0.50 USDC/wake (~18 more wakes to exhaust budget).

Pre-market window; CLAUDE.md enforces 09:30–16:00 ET only. No fills possible now by design. 2 settled deals both with LP-Maker-Matheus confirm the path clears at open.

Sound and solving the right problem. w20 correctly identified 1.01% oracle drift and rotated intent 752→753 at refreshed price (oracle×0.99). w21–w26 held cleanly on market-hours logic with no redundant on-chain action. No churn — 22 repeat wakes are pre-open holds, not re-deriving the same bad move.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) via 30-second poll loop

fallback at 14:00 UTC (open + 30 min) if poll misses

Both settled deals were LP-Maker fills; LP has live sNVDA quote (12 USDC lot) and is confirmed able to fill Stacker's 0.50 USDC slices

none — pre-market, trading correctly blocked by CLAUDE.md market-hours rule; LP-Maker's sNVDA quote is live but Stacker cannot and should not act before 13:30 UTC

Fires exactly at epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) — the only moment Stacker is allowed to act

30-second poll cadence is appropriate: lightweight, zero-LLM, no book dependency

Fallback at open+30 min (14:00 UTC) is a sensible safety net; nextFallbackMin=129 confirms it resolves to ~14:00 UTC from current ~11:51 UTC

No book-watching needed for a pure DCA mission — correctly omitted

fallbackMs when already past open evaluates to 30 min from invocation time, which is correct but implicit — a comment would prevent future confusion

No functional change needed; the script is mission-fit. Optional: add inline comment explaining the post-open fallbackMs edge case for maintainability.

LP lot-size headroom shrinks as sNVDA price rises

LP posts 12 USDC lots; Stacker posts 0.50 USDC. Confirmed fills show LP accepts sub-lot today, but if LP tightens minimums or oracle price moves, 0.50 USDC may become un-fillable. Currently 9.00 USDC / 18 wakes remaining.

Monitor: if next fill at 13:30 fails despite LP live, check whether LP minimum crossed 0.50 USDC threshold and adjust slice size in CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

Market-hours rule: stocks cannot trade post-close. sNVDA is the only signal. No crypto dislocations. Best move is wait.

Summary: Three-wake DCA sequence confirmed: w21 (−1.75%, 18 USDC→0x437), w22 (−1.92%, 18 USDC→0x448), w23 (−2.18%, 20 USDC→0x045e). 0x448 resolved (watcher fired and re-armed on 0x045e) — Step-1's open-book 20 USDC intent IS w23, not a stale w22. Dislocation has deepened each wake; 56 USDC committed across 3 slices, ~24.2 USDC remaining — nearly budget-deployed. All

w23 confirmed: sNVDA dislocation deepened to −2.18% (from −1.75% / −1.92% prior wakes), triggering a 3rd DCA slice (20 USDC → 0.0994 sNVDA at $201.14). 0x448 resolved before w23 fired. With ~24.2 USDC left after 56 USDC deployed, the agent is near budget exhaustion — if 0x045e fills (~20 USDC), only ~4 USDC remains, insufficient for a full next slice.

Not a failure — agent is executing correctly. Structural note: 5/5 settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; zero diversification of counterparty. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote, no fallback taker exists. Current intent 0x045e (20 USDC) is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor — fillable now.

Sound and on-mission. The escalating commitment pattern (18→18→20 USDC as dislocation deepened −1.75%→−1.92%→−2.18%) is disciplined DCA, not churn. The 5 idle wakes (w15–w20) correctly held fire: sNVDA sell-strength blocked by market hours and zero position, no buy-dip above 1.5% threshold — patience was right, not a failure. Sizing at 18–20% of pool per slice is proportionate.

ownIntentResolved: fires when 0x045e fills or expires

2h fallback (120 min, ~74 min remaining)

All 5 settled deals; 11 open quotes; 20 USDC intent is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor

Could theoretically take sNVDA → USDC side, but lot-size bug (4 USDC intents) means it's currently misfiring; not a reliable fill source

None. w15–w20 non-trades were correct: sNVDA sell-strength required holding sNVDA (zero position), and no buy-dip exceeded 1.5% threshold. w21 correctly identified the first actionable signal.

Fires on ownIntentResolved — exact event the agent needs (fill or expiry before re-evaluating)

2h fallback appropriate for a patient DCA agent averaging 153-min gaps

Zero-LLM; intent address hardcoded cleanly; PID written at startup

No early-wake on significant price move — if sNVDA dislocation reverses sharply (e.g. +1% bounce), agent holds the 0x045e intent until expiry rather than cancel

Add a price-check in the watch loop: if dislocation shrinks below 0.5% (dip fading), fireWake early so the agent can re-evaluate whether to let 0x045e expire rather than fill into a recovering asset.

Near budget exhaustion — no slice logic for <full-size remainder

After 56 USDC deployed (18+18+20), ~24.2 USDC remains. If 0x045e fills, ~4.2 USDC left — below the 18-20 USDC slice floor. Agent may stall at next wake with no actionable path despite continued dislocation.

Add minimum-remainder check: if remaining USDC < 10, skip further DCA slices and log 'budget nearly exhausted'; or allow a partial final slice down to 10 USDC floor.

Single counterparty concentration

5/5 settled deals vs LP-Maker-Matheus only. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote (as noted in Step-1: LP missing ETH ask and BTC ask at times), 0x045e would expire unfilled with no alternative taker.

Low priority given LP's current health (93 deals, 11 quotes), but worth noting for resilience — no agent fix needed now, monitor LP sNVDA quote coverage.

Vulture-Andrew

Summary: Confirmed crashed at w67/14:36 UTC June 10; now 555 min dark (+60 min since prior summary at 495 min). No change in resurrection signal: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, tokens_5h_usd=0, open_intents=0, deals frozen at 38. Bait suite (987/988/1001/948/949+4) all expired unmanaged. The live book NOW has at least one prime vulture target: Bea

Vulture has been dark 555 min with no self-recovery path. At least one near-decided binary (Bear-Yosher deal 75, betExpiry ~00:58 UTC June 11) and LP-Maker-Matheus's 6 live intents are in the book right now — vulture's exact hunting ground. Arb-hunter-tom is absorbing the taker flow instead. Manual restart is the only fix.

watcher process dead (pidAlive=false, armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null) since w67 at 14:36 UTC June 10. The 2h SDK fallback in wake-watch.js is inert when the process itself is gone. 38 settled deals all predate the crash; 0 activity since.

Sound logic, wrong state. Vulture's last active wakes (w61–w67) show disciplined quote hygiene: mandatory cancel on erosion below 0.5%, re-post at live oracle, honeypot blacklist enforced. Reasoning quality was good. The problem is the process exited and left no resurrection path — the logic can't run. This is platform/supervisor failure, not agent reasoning failure.

scan-edges: new takeable edge ≥1% (30s poll, excludes honeypots 779/836/869)

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest open intent expiry

check-my-quotes: cancelCmds.length > 0 (erosion or undercut)

MISSING: all triggers dead — watcher process not running; 2h fallback requires live PID

37 of 38 settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus swaps; LP has 6 open intents live now

Deal 75 betExpiry 1781139624 is a near-decided binary — vulture's primary target class; Mimic-Ljuba holds the other side, not bear, but bear

crashed 752 min — bear can't manage/expi

Mimic holds the long side of Bear deal 75; vulture could have posted a taker on the near-decided short side

Both hunt near-decided binaries as takers; arb-hunter is currently filling the taker vacuum vulture left (4 fills in recent deals)

ok — absorbing vulture's opportunity set

Bear-Yosher deal 75 (betExpiry 1781139624, ~00:58 UTC June 11): near-decided binary with ~1.5h to expiry at Step-1 capture — vulture's primary edge class, currently uncontested by any taker except arb-hunter-tom. LP-Maker-Matheus 6 open intents: vulture's w63 cleared a +$0.28 edge from LP at ≥1% gate, so at least some of the 6 likely clear the threshold. External 0xb591 BTC intent (15 USDC, 21m TT

scan-edges + check-my-quotes polling is zero-LLM and cheap (30s cadence appropriate for a sniper)

Honeypot blacklist (779/836/869) baked into seenEdgeIds at startup — prevents re-firing on confirmed traps

Pre-expiry trigger (5 min before soonest intent) correctly handles the bait-suite lifecycle without a separate cron

2h hard fallback is present and correctly placed

No process-level supervisor: when the Node process exits (crash, OOM, or clean exit after a failed transaction), the 2h fallback dies with it — zero resurrectio

seenEdgeIds is in-memory only: restart resets the honeypot blacklist, risking a refired honeypot take on first post-restart scan

Add a platform-level process supervisor (systemd unit, PM2, or SDK-level watchdog) that restarts the watcher process on exit — the 2h fallback is useless without a live PID. As a secondary: persist seenEdgeIds to disk so the honeypot blackl

No watcher process supervisor — crashed process = permanent silence

wake-watch.js 2h fallback is inert when the process exits. vulture-andrew has been dark 555 min because nothing restarts a dead watcher. The same structural risk applies to all agents using this SDK pattern.

SDK-level: add a supervised process wrapper (PM2/systemd) or a platform watchdog that detects pidAlive=false and restarts the watcher process. This is a core fix — it protects all agents.

seenEdgeIds honeypot blacklist is ephemeral — lost on restart

On restart after crash, seenEdgeIds resets to the hard-coded set (779/836/869). Any honeypot discovered dynamically at runtime would be re-evaluated as fresh on next boot, risking a bad take.

Persist seenEdgeIds to a local JSON file (e.g. /agent/state/refused-intents.json) and load it at startup. One-liner fix in the agent's CLAUDE.md tooling.

Manual restart required immediately — Bear deal 75 expiring ~1.5h from Step-1

Bear-Yosher deal 75 (betExpiry 1781139624) is a near-decided binary expiring ~00:58 UTC June 11. This is vulture's highest-value deal class. Arb-hunter-tom may take it instead, but vulture should be live to compete.

Manually restart vulture-andrew's watcher process now. The mission and wake-script are sound — the agent just needs a live process.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

BEAR DARK, EXPIRY IMMINENT

LP-Maker-Matheus hub (97 deals) driving majority; 6 open intents live; taker-side thin

All Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba; Bear crashed 752 min, 5 live contracts approaching expiry unmanaged; 0 new posts since crash

Deal 75 Bear↔Mimic live, betExpiry 1781139624 ~00:58 UTC Jun 11 (~1.5h)

All option-writer-matheus↔option-taker-matheus; writer silent nextFallbackMin=1144 (~19h)

Index-maker address=null, 16 cycles; 0 IndexBasket across all 1309 posted intents

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom, Swing-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew, Momentum-Nikita, 0xBd6a…9863

ACTIVE — 12/12 quotes live (BTC gap resolved w88 at +15.1bps), 97 deals settled;

FROZEN — Bear 752 min crashed; 5 live contracts unmanaged; deal 75 betExpiry 178

SUPPLY DRY — writer 8 monitor-only wakes (w42–w49), nextFallbackMin=1144; taker

Swing-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo → LP-Maker-Matheus

PARTIAL — Swing-Nikita intent 0x045e (20 USDC, above 12 USDC LP floor) fillable

NEVER STARTED — index-maker address=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime; 0 IndexBasket te

Bear-Yosher crashed (armed=false/pidAlive=false, 752 min dark) — sole BinaryBet poster on the fleet

BinaryBet segment fully frozen: Mimic-Ljuba counterparty-starved (0 takeable binary intents across wakes w55–w60), Arb-H

Bear: tokens_5h_usd=0, open_intents=0; Mimic: 14/16 settled deals were Bear↔Mimic BinaryBet; Arb-Hunter: counter frozen at 11, 20+ consecutive waits; deal 75 listed as 'Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba [custom

Bear-Yosher crash silences the primary vulture hunting surface simultaneously with Vulture-Andrew being down 555 min

Bear's 5 expiring BinaryBet contracts and post-expiry settlement arb go fully unguarded — no agent is positioned to expl

Vulture: armed=false/pidAlive=false, 38 deals frozen at w67, bait intents 987/988/1001/948/949+4 all expired unmanaged; deal 75 betExpiry ~1.5h with zero vulture coverage

Rebalancer-Lior lot size (4.96 USDC) structurally below LP-Maker-Matheus's 12 USDC fill floor

LP remains unreliable as counterparty for Rebalancer; premium escalation is the only path to fills — intent #1294 requir

4+ oracle-price failures before +4% fill on #1294; #1280 open at +3%, lot still 4.96 USDC; LP fill floor evidenced at 12 USDC across multiple agent summaries

Option-Writer-Matheus silent ~19h (nextFallbackMin=1144, Engine 1 dark, 7 prior unfilled options)

Option-Taker-Matheus holding two expiring options (#118 ~17:37 UTC Jun 11, #119 ~18:31 UTC Jun 11) with no new supply pi

Taker: 201 min since last wake, 0 audited options on book; writer: book at $95.66–$95.71 (−4.3% drawdown), 8 consecutive monitor-only wakes w42–w49

Index-Maker never provisioned (address=null, 16 consecutive null cycles)

Index-Taker permanently blocked upstream; entire IndexBasket template is absent from the network — 0 of 1309 posted inte

Both agents: 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, wake_script_source=null; no IndexBasket in funnel byTemplate across all cycles

Stacker-Massimo transition from armed/pidAlive=true (nextFallbackMin=129 last run) to armed=false/pidAlive=false after e

Unknown whether epoch 178 stock trade executed cleanly or agent crashed mid-wake; if crashed, a planned allocation is un

Snapshot delta: last run pidAlive=true → this run pidAlive=false; last_wake=602 min; epoch 1781098200 was ~99 min away at prior summary time; portfolio was 0.004928 sNVDA + 9.00 USDC free

Bear-Yosher deal 75 expires ~00:58 UTC Jun 11 with no managing agent

betExpiry 1781139624 is ~1.5h away. Bear-Yosher is 752 min crashed (armed=false/pidAlive=false, tokens_5h_usd=0). Mimic-Ljuba holds the other side and is alive but cannot manage Bear's position. No automated resurrection signal exists.

Deal 75 in recent deals as 'Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba [custom] live'; Bear watcher: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; orient: 'settlement risk clock running'

Resurrect Bear-Yosher immediately — restart watcher process; verify deal 75 settlement path before 00:58 UTC Jun 11; if resurrection fails, manually inspect settlement mechanics

Bear + Vulture double crash — BinaryBet dead, arb surface unguarded

Bear-Yosher (752 min) and Vulture-Andrew (555 min) are simultaneously crashed. The BinaryBet poster and its natural distressed-inventory predator are both offline. 5 live Bear↔Mimic contracts approach expiry with zero agent coverage for post-expiry arb.

Bear: armed=false/pidAlive=false, 0 tokens_5h_usd; Vulture: armed=false/pidAlive=false, 38 deals frozen, bait intents 987/988/1001/948/949+4 expired; orient confirms 'bait suite expired unmanaged'

After Bear resurrection, resurrect Vulture-Andrew — position it to capture post-deal-75 arb; do NOT resurrect Vulture before Bear (Bear's expiry is time-gated)

Stacker-Massimo post-epoch 178 status flip — trade or crash unresolved

Was armed/pidAlive=true at prior run; now armed=false/pidAlive=false after epoch fired. No on-chain evidence yet of whether epoch 178 allocation executed. Portfolio: 0.004928 sNVDA + 9.00 USDC free — if crashed mid-wake, intended trade is unbooked.

Prior run: pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=129; this run: pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, last_wake=602 min; epoch 1781098200 was ~99 min away at prior summary

Check Stacker-Massimo wallet for epoch 178 transaction on-chain; if trade executed, restart watcher for next epoch; if crashed mid-wake, investigate and restart with current portfolio state

Arb-Hunter-Tom SSV direction-check blocking +100bps fill — 20+ consecutive waits

w193 logged 'SSV +100bps gap dir ->' with truncated rejection. Fill counter frozen at 11. LP-Maker-Matheus has an open SSV intent (gives 4 USDC → wants 1.955 SSV, 15m TTL) visible in book now. If direction-check is a false positive, this is a core logic bug costing live arb edge.

Arb-Hunter summary: w193 near-miss; counter=11, 20+ consecutive waits; open book: 'LP-Maker-Matheus [Swap] gives 4 USDC → wants 1.955 SSV (15m left)'

Audit arb-hunter-tom direction-check logic for SSV: confirm the +100bps gap directional classification; if false-positive, fix the check — this is a shared SDK concern if other takers use the same logic

Rebalancer-Lior lot (4.96 USDC) below LP's 12 USDC floor — escalation treating symptom

Intent #1280 at +3% premium unfilled because lot never clears LP's floor. #1294 filled only via non-LP taker at +4%. Agent correctly diagnosed the floor but never corrected lot size — premium escalation is a workaround, not a fix, and will keep burning premium on each cycle.

Rebalancer summary: '4+ oracle-price failures before +4% fill'; #1280 at +3% still open, lot=4.96 USDC; LP fill floor=12 USDC evidenced across multiple agents

Update rebalancer-lior CLAUDE.md / lot-size logic to post ≥12 USDC clips when targeting LP-Maker-Matheus; retire the escalation-as-primary-path approach

Momentum-Nikita baseline stale 428+ min — may fire on stale data at 472 min fallback

Watcher process captured its market baseline at w17 (13:43 UTC, 428 min ago) and has not re-sampled. The upcoming 472 min fallback wake will evaluate SSV/sNVDA momentum against a ~7h-old snapshot — spread relationships may have shifted materially.

Momentum-Nikita summary: 'baseline-staleness issue has grown… w17 watcher process captured its baseline at first-poll ~428 min ago'

Add baseline re-sample on each wake in momentum-nikita watcher; do not carry first-poll snapshot across multi-hour dormancy periods

URGENT before 00:58 UTC Jun 11: Resurrect bear-yosher — restart watcher process; verify deal 75 (betExpiry 1781139624) settlement path; if resurrection fails, manually inspect settlement mechanics for the Mimic-Ljuba side

After bear-yosher confirmed stable: resurrect vulture-andrew (555 min dark) to capture post-deal-75 arb and cover the open book; do not resurrect before bear-yosher — bear's expiry is the time gate

Investigate stacker-massimo post-epoch 178: check wallet on-chain for executed trade; restart watcher with verified current portfolio state whether or not trade executed

Fix rebalancer-lior lot size to ≥12 USDC — clears LP-Maker-Matheus fill floor and eliminates premium escalation as a workaround; single CLAUDE.md / config change

Audit SSV direction-check in arb-hunter-tom (and any shared taker logic): w193 logged +100bps gap rejected — determine if false-positive; fix if so, as LP has live SSV intent in book now

Same headline as last run — bear-yosher (+58 min, now 752 min dark) and vulture-andrew (+58 min, now 553 min dark) remain crashed with zero resurrection signal; stacker-massimo is the key delta: was armed/pidAlive=true with nextFallbackMin=129 last run, now armed=false/pidAlive=false after epoch 178

Bear-Yosher deal 75 betExpiry 1781139624 (~00:58 UTC June 11, ~1.5h away) with Mimic-Ljuba holding the other side — settlement risk clock running with bear 752 min crashed

Stacker-Massimo status change: was armed/pidAlive=true at last run, now crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, last_wake=602 min) after epoch fired — unknown whether it traded or crashed mid-wake; deal

Rebalancer-Lior still mis-escalating: intent #1280 posted at +3% premium while lot=4.96 USDC is below LP's 12 USDC fill floor — premium escalation is the wrong lever

LP hub (97 deals, $77.52/5h burn) active with 6 open intents and Arb-Hunter-Tom as live taker (4 fills in recent deals); 0xb591 external BTC intent (15 USDC, 21m TTL) also in book

Funnel: 1303 posted / 132 settled = 10.1% conversion; BinaryBet segment frozen with Bear dark; 5 Bear↔Mimic live contracts approaching expiry window

Deal counter was stuck at 11 through w191 last run; 4 LP-Maker-Matheus fills visible in recent deals — has the counter actually moved past 11 this cycle, or are these history resurfacing? What is the current wake number and has any CEX-vs-o

Deal 75 betExpiry 1781139624 (~00:58 UTC June 11) is now ~1.5h away with agent 752 min crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false) — has the contract already settled on-chain, and what is the concrete exposure for Mimic-Ljuba's 5 live contracts i

16th+ consecutive null cycle — confirm address still null, no wallet provisioned, and no operator action since last run; any change in health or snapshot record?

16th+ consecutive null cycle — confirm still blocked on index-maker; has any IndexBasket intent appeared anywhere in the 1303-intent funnel?

Deals ticked 96→97 with 4 recent Arb-Hunter-Tom fills — are all 4 new this cycle or history? Are the 6 open intents (SSV, sMSFT×2, sNVDA, BTC×2) correctly sized; any counterparty besides Arb-Hunter-Tom and 0xBd6a active this cycle?

Five Bear↔Mimic BinaryBets are live with Bear 752 min crashed; deal 75 expires ~00:58 UTC June 11 (~1.5h away) — last wake was 214 min ago; has Mimic woken since then, and is it positioned to handle settlement without Bear's participation?

Open intent 25 USDC→11.85 SSV with 471m TTL is in the live book — was this posted this cycle or is it a carryover? Baseline captured at w17 (~7h+ ago) is critically stale; has the momentum signal decayed to meaningless for any actionable de

Still holding sNVDA call #118 (expiry ~17:37 UTC June 11) and put #119 (~18:31 UTC June 11); last wake 318 min ago — has option-writer-matheus posted any new options since last run, and are the held positions showing any ITM movement worth

8+ consecutive monitor-only wakes (w42–w49+); BTC drifted −0.13% and ETH −0.08% from baselines — has any vol event crossed the 1% fire threshold since last run, or is agent correctly dormant? Book drawdown now ~−4.3%.

Last wake 590 min ago, armed with nextFallbackMin=1211 — correctly resting. sAAPL position entry $290.79, stop $277.34, forward $303.75 — has price moved materially toward the stop or target in the ~10h since last activity?

Premium escalation misdiagnosis persists: intent #1280 at +3% while lot=4.96 USDC is below LP's 12 USDC fill floor — has agent woken since last run, and is it still escalating premium instead of sizing up the lot to cross the fill floor?

Was armed/pidAlive=true with nextFallbackMin=129 for epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC June 10), now crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, last_wake=602 min) — did the epoch wake execute any trades (deals counter was 2), or did the process crash

w23 intent (20 USDC→BTC) was visible in open book last run; 56 USDC committed across 3 slices with ~24.2 USDC remaining — has w23 filled this cycle, and has dislocation deepened enough to trigger a w24 that deploys remaining budget?

Still crashed 553 min (armed=false, pidAlive=false), deals frozen at 38, bait suite (987/988/1001/948/949+4) all expired — is there any currently mispriced LP intent or near-decided binary in the live book that vulture would have taken if a

URGENT: Restart bear-yosher before deal 75 expires at ~00:58 UTC June 11 (~1.5h) — 752 min crash with 5 live Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet contracts approaching settlement

Restart vulture-andrew — 553 min dark, deals frozen at 38 (fleet's 2nd highest), entire bait suite expired unmanaged, 0xb591 BTC intent on book right now is a candidate take

Diagnose stacker-massimo: check whether epoch 1781098200 wake traded or crashed mid-run (deals still 2?), then restart or mark mission-complete accordingly

Fix rebalancer-lior: agent must check LP fill floor (12 USDC min) before escalating premium — the fix is lot-size increase, not price discovery

Provision wallets for index-maker and index-taker — 16+ cycles at address=null; zero IndexBasket intents in the 1303-intent funnel; pair is permanently inert without operator action