account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No stale oracle gap large enough for any crypto swap to cross 10bps threshold. No crypto binary bet within 30min expiry.

new crypto intent >2186, binary <=30min in money, or 30min fallback

Summary: wakes_failing flag has CLEARED (now false, wake_error=null) — last run's paradox fully resolved: the 'launch-wake exited 1' errors were intermittent/transient, not structural. Agent recovered around w288-289 (Deal 184 SSV +139bps, Deal 185 SSV +28bps) and has been coherently operational since. Wakes w291-298 are all sound WAIT decisions: CEX inverted vs orac

Agent is healthy and executing correctly — 8 consecutive waits (w291-298) are market-driven, not infra. The infra question from last run is answered: wakes_failing cleared. LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole active counterparty (22/34 deals lifetime); SSV arb window closed per w294-295 reasoning ('book pricing has flipped — no poster is giving me the edge').

w294: 'SSV CEX premium returned but no poster priced favorably off stale oracle'; w295: 'SSV gap exists at oracle level but book pricing has flipped'; CEX inverted vs oracle on all crypto pairs w292, w296; LP-Maker-Matheus (22/34 deals) appears to have tightened spreads to close the edge window. Vul

Sound and on-mission. Each wake checks both surfaces (binary near-expiry + swap ≥10bps), quotes bestTake=null with a specific market reason, and advances HWM correctly (2128→2178 across visible window). No churn — w291 (no binary ≥0.5% margin), w292 (CEX inverted), w295 (gap exists but pricing flipped), w296 (CEX inverted regime) are distinct diagnoses, not loops. w294-295 correctly identify LP-Ma

new crypto swap or binary bet > HWM 2178

open crypto binary bet entering ≤30min window with CEX taker in-money ≥0.5%

22/34 settled deals lifetime; primary and essentially exclusive source of arb-able swaps — but w294-295 indicate LP has tightened to close t

healthy, 10 open intents, 143 lifetime d

2/34 historical deals; broken per Step-1 (launch-wake exited 1), so no fills while down

None confirmed — w291-298 each scanned the full book and found bestTake=null on both surfaces. w294-295 note SSV gap exists at oracle level but no poster is offering the edge, which is a market condition not a missed take. Note: watcher is blind to SSV gap re-opening mid-cycle without a new intent above HWM, so the 30-min fallback is the only catch — the gap in w294-295 may have been actionable fo

Trigger 2 performs live CEX price check before firing — avoids waking on binary bets where CEX has already moved back through strike; margin guard (≥0.5%) preve

wokenBets dedup (persistent file) prevents re-firing on the same near-expiry bet each tick

30-min fallback is appropriate for a latency-arb agent that needs to catch regime shifts without burning on sub-minute polling

HIGH_WATER correctly tracks seen intent IDs to avoid re-processing stale book entries

Trigger 1 fires on ANY new crypto swap above HWM, including taker-negative ones — produces immediate WAIT wakes at $0.50/wake with no edge (e.g. w292 fired on n

No reactive trigger for SSV gap re-opening when no new intent is posted — agent must wait up to 30 min for fallback even when LP already has a resting swap and

Add a Trigger 3 in the runWatchLoop body: poll SSV CEX-vs-oracle delta each tick (reuse cex-price.js, already imported); if SSV premium > MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT and an existing resting swap (non-STOCK, any intentId) is open in the book, fireWak

Trigger 1 fires on taker-negative intents, burning wake cost

isNewCryptoSwap() fires on any new crypto swap above HWM regardless of CEX margin. Wakes like w292 ('all new intents taker-negative') are entirely produced by this pattern — watcher fires, LLM runs at ~$0.50, concludes WAIT immediately. Across 259 repeat wakes this is the dominant cost driver.

In Trigger 1, add a quick CEX price vs. intent rate check before calling fireWake — mirror the MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT guard already in Trigger 2. Only fire if the new intent's offered rate gives the agent ≥10bps edge vs live CEX.

No reactive trigger for SSV gap re-opening without a new intent

w294-295 show SSV CEX premium returned and gap exists at oracle level, but no new intent above HWM was posted, so Trigger 1 never fired — agent waited up to 30 min for the fallback while the gap was live. Two wakes effectively missed the window.

Add Trigger 3 in runWatchLoop body: each tick, if SSV CEX premium > MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT AND at least one resting crypto swap exists in the open book (regardless of HWM), fireWake. cex-price.js is already imported — no new tool needed.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

HALT still in effect from wake 57. No aligned takeable bets. Deal 159 not settleable (DealNotResolved). Tech basket over

deal 159 pre-fire (June 15 17:49 UTC) or BTC ±1.5% from $65,424 or 4h fallback

Summary: Still in HALT mode from w57 (21:56 UTC June 14) when both BTC and ETH momentum signals fired simultaneously. Prior summary's inference of w59 at ~07:40Z was premature — current data still shows w58 (03:04 UTC June 15) as last wake; 4h fallback arms to fire in ~121 min (~07:04Z, consistent with nextFallbackMin=121 from ~05:03Z snapshot time). w59 has NOT yet

w59 has not executed — no w59 in recent_wakes and snapshot timing (last_wake_min_ago=120, nextFallbackMin=121) is internally consistent with ~05:03Z collection, placing the fallback at ~07:04Z. The prior summary's '~07:40Z' inference was a forward prediction, not a confirmed event. Agent is correctly halted per mission spec (dual BTC+ETH momentum trigger, w57). Realized PnL -$18.34 over 18 deals reflects repeated unfilled BTC-BELOW bets as BTC climbed through $64,800→$64,500→$66,000 strikes before HALT.

BTC climbed past three consecutive BELOW strikes (w54: $64,800, w55: $64,500, w56: $66,000 repost); w57 dual-signal HALT at 21:56 June 14. BTC baseline $65,424.24 not yet breached ±1.5% since 03:04Z arm — otherwise w59 would appear in recent_wakes. HALT is on-mission, not a failure.

Sound and on-mission. HALT is explicitly mission-spec behaviour ('halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently >2% over a few legs'). The dual-signal confirmation before halting is conservative and appropriate. Wake script correctly gates re-entry on three independent signals. Concern is upstream of HALT: 63/85 repeat wakes (74%) in the pre-HALT phase indicates the strike-chasing loop (sam

BTC ±1.5% deviation from $65,424.24 (60-second poll via readPrice)

Deal 159 pre-fire at 2026-06-15T17:49:00Z (Date.now() >= DEAL_159_PREFIRE_MS)

4h fallback from w58 arm (~07:04 UTC, nextFallbackMin=121)

Deal 159 is the only live position, counterparty is Mimic-Ljuba — the sole demonstrated binary bet counterparty for this agent

armed but nextFallbackMin=2898 (anomalou

Mission includes taking near-decided binaries; could fill a BTC-BELOW bet if BTC drops decisively, responsible for 8 of LP hub's 16 recent d

Could anchor the tech-basket swap side (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT DCA) if HALT exits; 10 open intents, 143 lifetime deals

None during HALT — intentionally not posting or taking by design. Tech basket also over cap (w58: 'basket over cap'), so no DCA swap opportunities apply either. Measurable missed opportunity window opens only after the ~07:04Z fallback wake reassesses HALT exit.

Three-trigger design covers all re-entry scenarios without redundancy: price signal (BTC deviation), time-bound event (deal 159 pre-fire at 17:49Z), patient fal

60s poll cadence is correct for a HALT-mode crypto agent — fast enough to catch a BTC spike/crash, not wasteful at 0 LLM cost per tick

Zero-LLM, deterministic — cannot fire spuriously on 'book non-empty'

Deal 159 pre-fire trigger (Date.now() >= 17:49Z) ensures timely settle attempt before betExpiry — highest-value trigger in the script

ETH deviation trigger absent — HALT was triggered by both BTC AND ETH momentum simultaneously (w57 log explicit), but only BTC price is polled for re-entry; ETH

Add a symmetric ETH ±1.5% deviation trigger from the ETH price at HALT time, mirroring the BTC block — since HALT fired on dual signals, re-entry logic should poll both so a favourable ETH move doesn't wait up to 4h to be seen.

ETH signal missing from HALT-mode re-entry watcher

W57 log: 'Both BTC and ETH momentum signal fired HALT simultaneously.' Current wake script only polls BTC (readPrice symbol=BTC) for deviation. If ETH realigns with the SHORT thesis (drops >1.5% from its HALT-time baseline) before BTC moves, the agent won't detect it until the 4h fallback fires.

In the next HALT-mode watcher, capture ETH price at arm time as ETH_BASELINE, then poll readPrice({symbol:'ETH'}) in the same loop block and fireWake on ±1.5% deviation — symmetric to the BTC check.

Strike-chasing pattern drove 74% repeat-wake ratio pre-HALT

63/85 wakes are repeat wakes. W54–W56 show the same BTC-BELOW bet expiring three times as BTC climbed ($65k → $64,800 → $64,500 → $66,000 repost). Each re-post consumed a wake + LLM cost; $21.56 lifetime token spend against -$18.34 realized PnL. The mission says halt when crypto climbs persistently

Add a re-post counter: if the same directional bet expires N≥3 consecutive times with BTC moving against (i.e., each new strike is further OTM than the last), run the HALT evaluation immediately rather than re-posting again.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 46th consecutive null cycle — state byte-for-byte identical to prior 45 runs. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, 0 settled deals. No wallet funded, no env set, no wake-script committed, no deployment signal of any kind. The IndexBasket LONG-side market has never had a maker — this is an und

No change since last run. 46 consecutive null cycles, zero deployment signals across every dimension (wallet, env, script, watcher, tokens). This is a boarding-level escalation — the agent does not exist as a running process, and no analysis of trading behavior is meaningful.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0, settled_deals=not-indexed, nextFallbackMin=null — every deployment indicator is null or zero across 46 cycles

N/A — agent has never executed. No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake-script exists — nothing can fire this agent

Designed to take the SHORT side of index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents — the only natural counterparty

Also undeployed (same null state, 46 nul

unmeasurable: agent has never woken; watcher blind to book and to everything else

No wake-script source committed — wake_script_source=null

No watcher process — armed=false, pidAlive=false

No fallback scheduled — nextFallbackMin=null

Board the agent: fund a wallet, set env, commit a wake-script that posts one LONG IndexBasket intent per wake and publishes verified contract source to the indexer — this is prerequisite zero before any other change.

Agent never deployed — 46 null cycles

index-maker and its counterpart index-taker have produced zero output across 46 consecutive observer cycles. No wallet, no environment variables, no wake-script, no watcher process. The IndexBasket LONG-side market has never existed on-chain.

Boarding-level action required: (1) fund index-maker wallet, (2) set required env vars, (3) commit wake-script implementing the mission (post LONG IndexBasket intent, publish verified source to indexer), (4) board index-taker in parallel — the pair is only useful together.

No change since last run. 46 consecutive null cycles, zero deployment signals across every dimension (wallet, env, script, watcher, tokens). This is a boarding-level escalation — the agent does not exist as a running process, and no analysis of trading behavior is meaningful.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 46th consecutive null cycle — no change whatsoever. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Sole counterparty index-maker remains identically undeployed (health=unknown). The IndexBasket SHORT-side market does not exist; there is nothing to take and no watcher to attempt it.

46 consecutive null cycles with zero change. No watcher, no wakes, no tokens, no deals. index-maker (sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents) is equally undeployed — the entire IndexBasket market is a structural gap with no participants on either side.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, 0 tokens lifetime. Not a market problem — the agent has never been started.

MISSING: no watcher deployed, nothing fires

sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to SHORT

also undeployed — health=unknown, 0 deal

none — index-maker has never posted an IndexBasket intent, so there is nothing to take; missed opportunities are unmeasurable until index-maker deploys

wake_script_source=null — no watcher exists at all

no fallback timer, no trigger, no deployment of any kind

Deploy the agent with a watcher that polls the indexer for live LONG IndexBasket intents and fires when one appears; fallback every 30–60 min to check for stale intents.

Agent never deployed — 46 cycles, zero activity

index-taker has armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 tokens across its entire lifetime. It is not crashed — it has never been started.

Deploy index-taker alongside index-maker as a coordinated pair; neither is useful without the other.

IndexBasket market entirely absent — structural gap

Both sides of the IndexBasket market (index-maker and index-taker) are undeployed. No LONG intents have ever been posted; no SHORT side can take them. This is not a thin-book problem — the market does not exist.

Treat index-maker + index-taker as a paired deployment decision; neither produces value in isolation.

46 consecutive null cycles with zero change. No watcher, no wakes, no tokens, no deals. index-maker (sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents) is equally undeployed — the entire IndexBasket market is a structural gap with no participants on either side.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Concurrent wake pre-renewed cluster; no stale/inverted quotes; no fills available.

Summary: sNVDA ask remains dark through wake-191 script — now 16+ consecutive wakes, no fleet supply; confirmed structural (inventory thin, not a toolchain block). SSV adverse-fill pressure eased: after emergency +120bps at w186c, LP normalized to +50bps at w188 (04:18) once oracle stabilized — the +75bps cited last summary was transient. Critical change since last r

LP is healthy (wakes_failing=false, 143 settled deals, +$48 equity vs start), but losing arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew to 'launch-wake exited 1' removes 11 of its last 16 deal counterparties — fill rate will structurally decline until those platform breaks are fixed. sNVDA ask dark is a fleet-level supply gap, not an LP fault.

arb-hunter-tom (8/16 recent deals, now wakes_failing / launch-wake exited 1) + vulture-andrew (3/16 recent deals, now broken) together account for 11/16 recent fills; remaining reliable counterparties are stacker-massimo (5/16), option-writer-matheus (5/16), momentum-nikita (2/16), polymarket-ljuba

Sound and on-mission. Concurrent wake collisions handled correctly (w187 dedup, phantom 1-SSV ask fixed in w187b). SSV spread management shows adaptive reasoning: widened to +120bps under two consecutive adverse fills (w186c), normalised to +50bps once oracle stabilised (w188). [object Object] entries in w190 wake logs are a JS serialisation bug in the summary output, not a reasoning failure — the

cluster prefire — 7min before earliest expiry (PREFIRE_TS 06:02 UTC for cluster #2172-#2182 exp 06:09-06:20)

new fillable swap intent from non-own, non-noisy poster in USDC/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT

8 of last 16 deals — primary LP taker; takes crypto/SSV swaps against oracle mid

degraded — launch-wake exited 1, wakes_f

5 of last 16 deals; bids sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT within ~1% oracle — directly matches LP asks

5 of last 16 deals; crypto+equity rebalancing swaps hit LP quotes

3 of last 16 deals; swap opportunist hitting LP quotes

broken — launch-wake exited 1 (Step-1 co

2 of last 16 deals; takes dominant-mover swaps — fills LP when momentum aligns

None identifiable from available data — SSV ask at +50bps with oracle stable and no taker visible in recent wakes; sNVDA ask dark so LP cannot fill sNVDA buy orders. Watcher does scan new fillable swaps so any posted counterparty intent would fire it.

Cluster prefire fires 7min before earliest expiry — prevents quotes going dark between renewal and expiry

Guards cover all 6 actively-quoted instruments on their live boundaries, including one-sided bid-only guards for sAAPL and sNVDA (correct — no ask to guard when

Counterparty detection via new fillable swap in FILLABLE set — catches any taker posting to the book regardless of instrument

90min fallback + zero-LLM watcher; 30s poll interval appropriate for an always-on LP

Noisy address (0x64Aa) filtered to prevent ghost-fires on known spam poster

w190 wake-log shows '[object Object]' — a JS object is being string-concatenated without JSON.stringify in the wake summary output; logs are unreadable for thos

Fix '[object Object]' serialisation: JSON.stringify (or destructure) the object passed into the wake summary string in w190's log path — one-line fix, recovers wake log legibility.

arb-hunter-tom + vulture-andrew platform break cuts LP fill rate ~70%

11 of LP's last 16 settled deals came from these two agents; both now show 'launch-wake exited 1'. LP book and logic are intact — this is purely a platform-side loss of counterparty flow.

Fix 'launch-wake exited 1' root cause (shared platform regression — Step-1 suspects same error string on both agents is not coincidence). Restoring either agent immediately recovers LP fill volume.

sNVDA ask structurally dark — no supply fleet-wide, 16+ consecutive wakes

stacker-massimo and option-writer-matheus are both bid-side sNVDA; LP ask is dark due to thin inventory. No agent posts sNVDA asks. Any sNVDA buyer has no fill path.

Add an sNVDA ask supplier (new agent mission or LP inventory top-up for sNVDA) — this is a fleet-level gap, not fixable by LP alone.

[object Object] in w190 wake-log entries

Two w190 entries log '[object Object]' where a structured summary should appear — JS object passed to string concatenation without serialisation. Non-critical but blinds operators to those wake actions.

JSON.stringify the offending object in the wake summary construction path.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

No BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge available. Edge floor 3pp unmet on entire visible board (24 swaps off-mission, 1 binar

new BinaryBet appears (crypto 24/7) OR Monday 13:30 UTC stock market open (sNVDA #1916 re-assess)

Summary: Fallback countdown confirms watcher alive and on track: nextFallbackMin dropped 569→509 (60 min burned between observations), placing the equity-open fire at ~13:30Z June 15 — exactly as projected last run. In 387+ min since w109 (06-14T22:31Z), no new BinaryBet triggered an early wake; watcher silence is the correct signal that no crypto BinaryBet crossed t

No new BinaryBets appeared on book in 387 min since w109 — watcher silence is correct, not alarming. nextFallbackMin=509 confirms the 13:30Z equity-open fire is ~8.5h away and on schedule. $85.58 USDC held intact with edge discipline (≥3pp floor enforced across all 9 recent wakes). Nothing broken; agent is cleanly waiting for the market event it was designed to await.

9 consecutive holds (w101–w109) all citing '≥3pp floor unmet'; no new BinaryBet posted in 387 min of watcher coverage; most recent board entries were -65pp, -38pp, -15pp taker edge — all well below floor. The thin BinaryBet supply is the market's constraint, not the agent's.

Sound, on-mission, non-churn. Each hold cites the specific edge seen (e.g. '-65pp Intent #1827', '+2pp Intent #1848') against the explicit ≥3pp floor. No re-derivation of the same ambiguous move; each wake has a crisp reject reason. The sNVDA #1916 skip in w109 ('edge below 3pp floor at realistic vol assumptions') shows correct deferred-until-market-hours logic. No problem of 'sound reasoning solv

New BinaryBet intent appears in readOpenIntents (crypto 24/7, fires immediately)

15h fallback (~13:30Z Monday June 15) for sNVDA #1916 equity-open re-assess

Prior settled deal; bear-yosher posts BinaryBets below strike (crypto down thesis) — mimic-ljuba's primary taker target

Prior settled deal; polymarket-ljuba posts BinaryBets with Polymarket-calibrated pricing — mimic-ljuba can take mispriced ones

vulture-andrew posts near-decided binaries baited for takers; mimic-ljuba could take if edge clears ≥3pp floor, but vulture-andrew is curren

arb-hunter-tom is a taker, not a BinaryBet poster; no counterparty fit for mimic-ljuba

None in 387 min since w109 — watcher scanned every 60s and fired zero early wakes, confirming no new BinaryBet entered the book. All visible BinaryBets on the board through w109 had taker edges well below the ≥3pp floor (-65pp worst, +2pp best). No missed take is detectable.

Baseline-first pattern (seen = null on first poll, return early) correctly avoids firing on pre-existing intents at watcher start

isBinaryBet filter (kind==='unknown' && template==='BinaryBet') is crisp — fires only on the instrument mimic-ljuba can act on, ignores the 24-swap noise seen i

60s poll cadence is appropriate: fast enough for taker opportunity, not sub-minute burn

15h fallback precisely targets Monday 13:30Z equity open for sNVDA #1916 re-assess — this is the only time that intent becomes tradeable

Edge validation deferred to wake (not in watcher) — correct separation of concerns; the watcher fires a cheap signal, the agent does the expensive edge math

After the 15h fallback fires and #1916 is assessed, the label and fallbackMs are baked into the current arm. If the agent holds #1916 past today's open, the nex

No log or fireWake label distinguishes crypto vs. equity BinaryBets — minor: both go to wake for edge validation, but a label like 'new crypto BinaryBet' vs 'fa

Add an equity-session guard in the BinaryBet fire path: if the new BinaryBet's underlying is a stock symbol (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) and current time is outside 13:30–20:00Z, skip firing and log 'equity BinaryBet #X deferred until market open'.

Watcher fires on equity BinaryBets outside market hours

The isBinaryBet filter is template-only — it does not distinguish crypto (24/7 tradeable) from equity BinaryBets (13:30–20:00Z only). If another agent posts an sNVDA/sAAPL BinaryBet at 03:00Z, mimic-ljuba wakes, finds untradeable timing, holds, and re-arms — burning $0.77/wake for no opportunity. Ha

In the watcher: check if isBinaryBet && underlying is equity && !isEquityHours() → skip fireWake, add to seen, continue. isEquityHours() = UTC hour in [13,20). Zero-LLM, safe.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Summary: Clock bomb fix (w44 ISO-string) confirmed holding. Nine disciplined holds since last summary — field peaked 1.73pp (w39) and has compressed further to 1.06pp ETH-BTC on 6h. Portfolio drifted to new ATH $104.15 (USDC $43.20, BTC $7.90, SSV remainder). No deals since last summary; Vulture-Andrew (one prior deal) now broken, LP-Maker-Matheus remains sole liquid

No pre-market trigger for equities — design is correct (stocks frozen until 13:30Z). The current watcher fires at 13:30Z via the in-loop `now >= MARKET_OPEN_MS` check. But the 8h fallback fires first at ~07:17Z (nextFallbackMin=137), deploying a new watcher; if that new watcher doesn't re-encode 13:30Z precisely, the equity-open expansion is silently missed. Crypto gap sub-2pp (1.06pp ETH-BTC at w44) — no action warranted now.

Fast gap peaked 1.73pp at w39, currently 1.06pp ETH-BTC (w44 comment). Dual-confirm rule requires both fast AND slow ≥2pp — neither cleared. 40/44 wakes are repeat-holds. Market structure, not infra or toolchain.

Sound and on-mission. Dual-confirm 2pp rule correctly blocks noise (SSV led by 0.076pp at w37, ETH by 1.06pp at w44 — both sub-threshold). Crypto-only restriction while US markets closed is correct. Agent is not re-deriving cold each wake — it references the compressed field and ATH portfolio consistently. No churn or off-mission drift detected across 9 holds.

Crypto gap ≥2pp between any two of BTC/ETH/SSV (intra-wake from first-poll baseline, polled every 90s)

US market open hard-coded fireWake at 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z (in-loop time check)

8h fallback from armWatcher (~07:17Z Jun 15, nextFallbackMin=137)

MISSING: no pre-market equity scan (correct by design — stocks illiquid pre-open, but means any pre-13:30Z equity dislocation is invisible)

RISK: 8h fallback fires BEFORE 13:30Z open, redeploys watcher; 13:30Z coverage after fallback depends on next agent write — not guaranteed

All 3 most-recent deals settled with LP-Maker-Matheus; 143 lifetime deals, health ok, 10 open intents on book

One prior settled deal; taker-style like momentum-nikita but on different instruments; now broken (launch-wake exited 1)

Both use delivered swaps; missions could cross on sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT at equity open, but rebalancer posts patient 1-slice-per-wake

armed, nextFallbackMin=567, targets 13:3

None — field was genuinely sub-2pp all 9 wakes (peaked 1.73pp w39, 1.06pp at w44). Dual-confirm rule correctly blocked. No resting asks on sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT while markets closed. No measurable missed opportunity.

Dynamic baseline on first poll — measures intra-wake relative divergence, not absolute returns (correctly catches 1.5%/−0.8% = 2.3pp gap that per-asset absolute

Relative gap metric (leader − next-best) directly matches the mission's 'concentrate into the strongest mover' logic

13:30Z market open trigger expands universe to full 6 names at the correct moment

8h fallback ensures agent isn't silently idle if crypto stays compressed

Stocks correctly excluded from crypto-only scan while US markets closed — prevents stale-price false signals

8h fallback (~07:17Z) fires BEFORE 13:30Z equity open, deploying a fresh watcher. The new watcher must re-encode the 13:30Z trigger independently — if the agent

Baseline resets each wake — inter-wake drift (e.g. SSV +4% over 3 wakes while BTC flat) is invisible until cumulative intra-wake gap clears 2pp. A slow grind ou

No slow-lookback trigger in the watcher itself — dual-confirm logic lives in the LLM wake, not the watcher. Watcher fires only on fast intra-wake gap; agent cou

After the 8h fallback fires at ~07:17Z, the agent's next watcher MUST encode `fireWake` at 13:30Z explicitly — add a CLAUDE.md instruction (or wake script comment) requiring the deployed watcher to always include the next US equity open tim

13:30Z equity-open trigger continuity not guaranteed across 8h-fallback watcher redeploy

Current watcher fires at 13:30Z via in-loop `now >= MARKET_OPEN_MS`. But the 8h fallback fires at ~07:17Z and redeploys a new watcher — coverage of 13:30Z then depends entirely on whether the agent re-encodes the timestamp in the new script. No mechanism enforces this.

Add to CLAUDE.md: 'When US equity open is within 12h and markets are closed, every new watcher MUST include an explicit fireWake at the next 13:30Z open timestamp.' Optionally encode in the fallback wake's standing instruction.

Slow-lookback dual-confirm not watcher-visible — watcher may re-fire unnecessarily

Watcher fires on fast intra-wake gap ≥2pp. The dual-confirm (slow also ≥2pp) is checked inside the LLM wake. Result: watcher can trigger a costly LLM wake that immediately holds because slow is sub-2pp — wasting tokens without action. At 44 wakes and $3.64 lifetime token spend this is minor now, but

Either (a) encode a conservative slow-gap proxy in the watcher (e.g. compare current price vs a stored rolling baseline file), or (b) document in CLAUDE.md that the watcher intentionally fires on fast-only and the LLM gate filters slow — making the design explicit rather than implicit.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Wake 36 check — looking for new audited Option intents to evaluate per mission.

new audited Option intent appears OR 6h fallback

Summary: Seed-on-first-poll bug (lines 22-24) confirmed still live but currently HARMLESS this cycle: at w36 (03:16 UTC) the book held zero audited Options, so seenIntentIds was seeded with an empty set — any new audited Option posted after 03:16 WOULD trigger fireWake immediately. The watcher has NOT fired in 109 min since w36, which means 0x0856 (option-writer-math

Agent is alive and well-reasoned; the seed bug is temporarily benign (empty seed at w36). The real gap: 0x0856 from option-writer-matheus hasn't triggered the watcher in 109 min, strongly indicating it uses a different template hash or is a Swap — it is invisible to the AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH filter entirely, not masked by the seed bug.

w36 (03:16) found zero audited Options — seed is empty, so 0x0856 posted after 03:16 should have triggered fireWake within 60s. It hasn't in 109 min. Only explanation: 0x0856 template hash ≠ AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH, or it's a Swap not an Option. w36 log explicitly: 'only Swaps and non-Option templates

Sound and disciplined on the intents it CAN see: w31 rejected #1600 (premium 40× fair, 5-sigma required), w34 rejected #1849 (premium 5%, expiry 1.47h below 4h bar), w35 rejected #1924 (premium 3%, expiry 87 min). The edge bar (≤1-2% premium AND ≥4h expiry) is coherent but may be too tight — w32 'passed' #1641 at 4% premium but still took no tx, suggesting even passing both bars doesn't guarantee

New audited Option with templateHash=0xb3d66f4bfda02da66df116f65f358d0feeacedbbeeba9d2c44500755464aad63 appears on book (poll every 60s)

6h fallback (nextFallbackMin=339, ~05:38 UTC)

Primary writer; 0x0856 sNVDA buy is live but templateHash mismatch makes it invisible to taker's filter — the natural counterparty is struct

Swap/binary market maker, does not write Options

0x0856 from option-writer-matheus — live sNVDA buy Option on book, not visible to taker due to template hash mismatch. Cannot measure whether it met the edge bar (premium ≤1-2% or expiry ≥4h) until hash visibility is fixed.

60s poll cadence appropriate for a taker watching for new Options — fast enough to catch short-lived intents

Correct fallback of 6h for a patient selective taker

Template hash filter (AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH) is the right gate — ensures only audited Options are evaluated

seenIntentIds dedupe prevents duplicate wake fires for the same intent

Seed-on-first-poll bug (lines 22-24): first poll seeds seenIntentIds and returns, making all pre-existing Options invisible until next cycle — currently benign

AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH hardcoded — if option-writer-matheus uses a different (newer?) hash for 0x0856, taker is permanently blind to it with no diagnostic surfac

No logging when an intent is FILTERED OUT by hash mismatch vs genuinely absent — makes diagnosing the writer-taker gap harder

Fix the seed bug (remove the early `return` on lines 22-24 — seed seenIntentIds but DON'T skip the newOptions check on first poll). Then verify 0x0856's templateHash against AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH and update the constant if the writer upgrad

Template hash mismatch: option-writer-matheus's 0x0856 invisible to taker

0x0856 has been live for at least 109 min without triggering the watcher (seed was empty post-w36, so any matching Option would have fired within 60s). The only consistent explanation is option-writer-matheus's sNVDA buy uses a different templateHash than the hardcoded AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH = 0xb3d6

Read 0x0856's on-chain templateHash; if different, update AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH in current.ts (or accept both hashes with `[HASH_A, HASH_B].includes(i.templateHash)`) and re-verify the audited source.

Seed-on-first-poll bug still live (lines 22-24)

On each script restart, first poll seeds seenIntentIds with all current Options and returns without checking for new ones — any Option already on the book at restart time is invisible until 6h fallback. Currently harmless (empty seed at w36) but structural: will silently drop pre-existing Options af

Remove `return` after seeding: seed seenIntentIds, then immediately run the `newOptions` check (don't skip first poll). One-line fix.

Edge bar semantics unclear — w32 'passed' #1641 but no tx

Wake 32 evaluated #1641 as 'genuinely cheap (4% of notional)' and 'Passed intent #1641' but no transaction followed. Either 'passed' means skipped (confusing log language) or there was a secondary rejection criterion not surfaced. 5 deals in 45 wakes (11%) with $26.81 PnL is strong, but the bar may

Clarify CLAUDE.md edge bar definition and ensure wake logs use 'TAKING' vs 'SKIPPING' (not 'passed') to disambiguate evaluation outcomes.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

sNVDA buy intent 0x0873 resolved (filled or expired) or 2h fallback

Summary: Building on prior: 0x0856 (oracle+0.5%) expired unfilled — not filled by Stacker-Massimo; the one settled swap with Stacker was a separate instrument. W24 (06-15T10:35) posted new 0x0873 at oracle MID, deliberately stepping down from +0.5% after 10+ unfilled bids — defensible: empirically no sellers at any premium, so lower bid saves cost without reducing fi

0x0856 expired unfilled; 0x0873 now live at oracle mid (lowered from +0.5% — logical given empirically zero sNVDA sellers regardless of premium). Engine 1 correctly paused: BTC put 0x0833 diagnostic closed the loop on zero option demand market-wide. Agent is structurally blocked by absent sNVDA sellers fleet-wide, not by any infra or reasoning failure. 26 lifetime deals all via LP-Maker-Matheus (6×), Vulture-Andrew (2×), Stacker-Massimo (1×) — all swaps, zero options ever filled.

10+ consecutive sNVDA buy intents unfilled (1993, 1994, 2046, 0x0856, now 0x0873); LP-Maker-Matheus has posted zero sNVDA asks for 15+ wakes; stacker-massimo is also a buyer; BTC put 0x0833 expired confirming zero option demand market-wide — both Engine 2 (supply gap) and Engine 1 (demand gap) are f

Sound and on-mission. W24 price reduction from oracle+0.5% to oracle mid is empirically grounded — 10+ unfilled bids at premium levels prove supply is the binding constraint, not price; bidding lower saves 0.5% slippage with no fill-probability cost. Engine 1 pause after BTC put diagnostic is disciplined and evidence-based. No churn: 0 repeat_wakes, avg_gap 37 min, token burn $0.86/5h is lean.

sNVDA buy intent 0x0873 resolved (filled or expired)

Hub for 6 of 9 recent deals with this agent (swaps), but LP has posted zero sNVDA asks for 15+ consecutive wakes — inventory likely absent

alive, 10 open intents, but structurally

Also a sNVDA buyer (10 USDC lots at oracle+0.5% bid); settled one swap with this agent but as a different-instrument cross — not a sNVDA sel

Natural counterparty for Engine 1 options, but seed-on-first-poll bug confirmed unfixed — cannot take options reliably

alive but toolchain-blocked on option in

2 recent swap deals with this agent; vulture picks off mispriced swaps so could fill sNVDA buy if it holds inventory — but vulture is curren

BROKEN — wakes_failing confirmed this cy

none — no sNVDA ask intents resting on book to take; no option taker active to absorb Engine 1 writes. Nothing measurable was skipped.

Fires on 0x0873 resolution (filled or expired) — action-aligned, not book-polling

2h fallback matches patient accumulation cadence (avg_gap 37 min, one move per wake discipline)

Zero-LLM watch loop; cannot fire spuriously on 'book non-empty'

Intent ID hardcoded to 0x0873 — each cycle requires a new script; if w25 posts 0x0887, watcher fires on the wrong ID until re-armed

No trigger for a sNVDA ask appearing in the book (would let the agent respond faster than 2h fallback when supply finally arrives)

Resolve the intent-ID brittleness: read the agent's current live sNVDA buy intent dynamically at startup (via ownAddress + readIntent scan) rather than hardcoding 0x0873 — this makes the watcher self-healing across repricing cycles without

sNVDA has zero sellers fleet-wide — structural liquidity gap

15+ LP wakes with no sNVDA ask supply; stacker-massimo and option-writer-matheus both buyer-only; vulture-andrew broken and offline. No agent in the fleet posts sNVDA asks. option-writer-matheus cannot execute Engine 2 sNVDA rebalancing regardless of bid price.

Fleet-level: configure LP-Maker-Matheus to maintain a sNVDA ask tranche from its inventory, or onboard a dedicated sNVDA seller agent; without a supply-side participant this instrument is permanently frozen for all buyers

option-taker-matheus seed-on-first-poll bug blocks all option demand

Engine 1 correctly paused pending option demand, but the demand-side block is a known unfixed bug in option-taker-matheus. Zero options have ever been filled across the fleet. option-writer-matheus is correctly waiting but the wait is open-ended until the taker is fixed.

Fix seed-on-first-poll bug in option-taker-matheus so it can evaluate and take live option intents; this would directly unlock Engine 1 restarts

Wake script hardcodes intent ID 0x0873 — brittle across repricing cycles

Each wake that posts a new intent (0x0856 → 0x0873) requires a manual watcher rewrite. If the agent posts 0x0887 in w25, the watcher continues watching 0x0873 (already resolved) and fires immediately or never fires cleanly.

Replace hardcoded SNVDA_BUY_INTENT_ID with a dynamic lookup of the agent's current live intent at watcher startup

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Summary: 410 min post-w57 (+60 min from prior 350 min) — fallback countdown confirms elapsed time exactly (1092→1032 min remaining, now 1032). Both maker binaries (#1827 sMSFT<$420, #1916 sNVDA>$195 Jun19 @ 77.93%) still open and unfilled. Core gap unchanged and now more urgent: wake script has zero oracle-price trigger; sNVDA was $205.10 at w57 post — any drift towa

Alive and armed; not broken. Both maker binaries open 410+ min with no fills — sNVDA was $205.10 at post (w57, #1916 sNVDA>$195), but the wake script has no price-threshold trigger, leaving a $10 buffer to the strike unmonitored for up to 17 more hours. The two most likely binary takers (arb-hunter-tom, vulture-andrew) are both broken fleet-wide, making fill even less probable.

4 lifetime deals total; #1827 (sMSFT<$420) and #1916 (sNVDA>$195 Jun19) both unfilled 410+ min. Confirmed binary taker candidates — arb-hunter-tom (wakes_failing) and vulture-andrew (launch-wake exited 1) — are both offline. LP-Maker-Matheus (hub, 143 deals) fills swaps only, not binaries.

Sound and on-mission through w56-w57: orderly sAAPL exit sequence (w50→w56, required two price steps — oracle mid then -1% — before LP filled), capital then redeployed into two fresh maker binaries using Polymarket-calibrated implied probabilities (79.94% and 77.93%). sNVDA>$195 at $205.10 with a $10 buffer to Jun19 expiry is a defensible maker position. The structural gap is cadence, not reasonin

ownIntentResolved on #1827 or #1916 (filled or expired)

new binaryBet or option intent appears on book

Confirmed swap counterparty (sAAPL→USDC fills); does not take binaries

1 confirmed custom deal; mission mirrors recent bets so could intersect on sMSFT/sNVDA binaries

Primary binary taker mission (near-decided bets); 8 of last 13 LP fills were with this agent — would be best binary counterparty

Takes mispriced and near-decided binaries; 46 lifetime deals

Posts and takes binary bets on tech equities; sMSFT<$420 could align if bearish framing matches

unmeasurable: watcher is event-driven (new intents only) and has no taker-scan log — cannot determine whether takeable binaries/options appeared on book between wakes and were missed

Fires on ownIntentResolved for both maker IDs (#1827, #1916) — correctly detects fills and expiries without polling every intent

Fires on any new binaryBet/option intent — captures taker opportunities reactively

Zero-LLM, PID written, fallback present — structurally clean

No oracle price check: if sNVDA drifts toward $195 the agent sleeps for up to 17h — a maker-binary holding a live strike MUST monitor price proximity

24h fallback is too long while a Jun19 binary with a $10 buffer is live — meaningful moves can occur within hours

new-intent trigger fires on any binary/option (including irrelevant instruments) while missing price action on existing open positions

Add an oracle price poll inside runWatchLoop: fetch sNVDA spot each iteration; if spot falls below (strike + threshold, e.g. $200), call fireWake('sNVDA approaching $195 strike'). Simultaneously reduce fallbackMs to 4-6h (240-360 min) while

Wake script blind to oracle price drift on live maker binary #1916

sNVDA>$195 Jun19 (#1916) was posted at sNVDA=$205.10 (w57). The watcher has no price-threshold check, so erosion of the $10 buffer goes undetected until a new intent appears or the 1032-min fallback fires — roughly 17 more hours of exposure.

In runWatchLoop, fetch sNVDA oracle price each poll cycle; if price < (195 + threshold), fireWake('sNVDA approaching strike $195'). Use belt.tools.readOracle or equivalent.

24h fallback too long for short-horizon maker binaries

sNVDA>$195 expires Jun19 (~4 days away). A 24h sleep gap while this is live is excessive given the price sensitivity to a $10 buffer. Prior run showed 1092 min; now 1032 — consistent but still ~17h of potential drift.

While MY_INTENT_IDS has live binaries, cap fallbackMs at 4-6h (e.g. 4 * 3600_000).

Both primary binary takers offline — fills suppressed fleet-wide

Arb-hunter-tom (wakes_failing) and vulture-andrew (launch-wake exited 1) are the agents most structurally suited to take maker binaries. Both show the same 'exited 1' error pattern. This is a shared platform issue, not agent-specific, and directly reduces fill probability for #1827 and #1916.

Restore arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew — shared 'launch-wake exited 1' is flagged as a possible platform regression in Step-1; investigate common binary/launch path before per-agent fix.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: BTC DCA (#1294, w44) and sMSFT approval (w46) remain complete. Watcher date bug corrected at w48 (06-16→06-15); now correctly targeting 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z. As of this cycle (~05:05Z June 15), the 13:30Z trigger has NOT yet fired — agent is patient and correct. nextFallbackMin=565 confirms fallback armed at ~14:30Z. Queued slice: trim sMSFT +1.52pp → USDC →

13:30Z trigger has not fired — agent is ~8.5h early, correctly idle. Watcher live (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=565 ≈ 14:30Z fallback). Queued move is trim sMSFT +1.52pp → DCA BTC -1.65pp; LP-Maker-Matheus (143 deals, 10 open intents) is the primary swap counterparty.

US equity oracle unavailable outside market hours; sMSFT trim leg requires live price feed. Agent has 0 USDC deployed and BTC fill complete — no crypto-only move warranted at current gap sizes. Waiting is correct.

Sound and on-mission. Each wake advanced the plan without churn: oracle escalation → BTC fill (#1294) → sMSFT approval → date-bug fix → patient wait. No repeated re-derivation; w47–w48 correctly identified the single blocker (market closed) and deferred cleanly.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z (US market open, 5-min poll cadence)

Primary swap counterparty; 143 lifetime deals, 10 open intents now, prior sMSFT/BTC swap history

8× historical fills with LP but currently showing launch-wake errors; unreliable as fallback counterparty

Could be on opposite side of an equity swing, but mission is momentum not mean-reversion; low overlap

None. Agent holds 0 USDC since w45 (all capital committed to BTC fill, now settled). Stocks closed since w45; crypto gap sizes below threshold per w48 reasoning. No actionable book opportunity exists.

Fires on specific UTC timestamp (13:30Z), not book state — correct for a market-hours-gated DCA agent

5-minute poll cadence appropriate for detecting open to within one candle

Fallback at 14:30Z covers a missed or slow 13:30Z trigger; US market stays open until ~20:00Z so 1h slip is tolerable

Zero-LLM watcher; can't spuriously fire on book noise

FALLBACK_MS computed dynamically at launch so re-launches don't drift the deadline

Hardcoded date '2026-06-15T14:30:00Z' makes script single-use — normal for DCA pattern but agent must write a new one post-execution or it will re-fire a stale

After the 13:30Z wake executes, have the agent write a new current.ts targeting the next rebalance opportunity rather than leaving the expired date in place — avoids a stale-label relaunch if the process restarts.

Post-execution script not pre-planned

Current wake script will expire after 14:30Z fallback fires. If the agent's wake at 13:30Z partially executes (e.g., sMSFT trim succeeds but BTC DCA fails), no follow-up watcher is pre-authored. Agent must write a new current.ts in the same wake.

In the wake logic at 13:30Z, after each leg completes, immediately write the next current.ts targeting the follow-on action (e.g., BTC DCA retry or next portfolio check) before the wake exits.

13:30Z trigger has not fired — agent is ~8.5h early, correctly idle. Watcher live (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=565 ≈ 14:30Z fallback). Queued move is trim sMSFT +1.52pp → DCA BTC -1.65pp; LP-Maker-Matheus (143 deals, 10 open intents) is the primary swap counterparty.

Stacker-Massimo

Taker-led tech-equity accumulator: take resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle, 24/7, ~10 USDC lots; post own bid at oracle+0.5% only when nothing is takeable. Accumulate until 100 USDC deployed; never sell.

Nothing to sweep, nothing to refresh, cannot post a second bid while 2111 is open.

bid 2111 fill/expiry | new sNVDA/sAAPL sell | sAAPL oracle drift >0.5% | 45-min fallback

Summary: Prior: w52 rotated from sNVDA to sAAPL (consecutive_misses=2), swept asks 2063/2075/2143 (deals 180/186), posted bids 2069/2111. By w59 (05:05Z): USDC 50.055 (40.055 free + 10 locked bid 2111), sAAPL 0.081175, sNVDA 0.129488 unchanged. w58–w59 were correctly idle: no takeable sAAPL asks, bid 2111 valid, mission prohibits second bid. w60 just fired (last_wake

Agent is healthy and on-mission: 10 settled deals (all vs LP-Maker-Matheus ×7 + Option-Writer-Matheus ×1), sAAPL accumulation via sweeps 2063/2075/2143 and passive bid fills. w60 fired 2 min ago — action unknown but watcher rearmed with 17-min fallback, suggesting wake completed cleanly. No infra issues; idle wakes (w58, w59) correctly reflect no takeable asks, not a stall.

sAAPL asks above oracle×1.01 ceiling at w58–w59 (no takeable supply); sNVDA structurally bid-only fleet-wide (no ask supply from any agent). LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole reliable ask-poster; when LP is not quoting sAAPL within ceiling, no taker action is possible. 0 new deals since w57 (04:37Z) is m

Sound and on-mission. Rotation from sNVDA at consecutive_misses=2 was correct (sNVDA bid-only for 15+ LP wakes). Bid-posting discipline is correct: one open bid at a time, no re-post while 2111 is valid. w58–w59 idle wakes are explicitly scoped ('mission says skip') — not churn. The only flag: w60's action is not yet visible in the recent_wakes log, so the current wake's output is unverified.

bid 2111 resolved (fill or expiry) — ownIntentResolved check

sAAPL oracle drift >0.5% from hardcoded base $291.15

new sNVDA or sAAPL sell intent ≤12 USDC — newMatches check

7/8 visible settled deals; LP posts sAAPL/sNVDA asks that stacker sweeps within the oracle×1.01 ceiling

ok — 10 open intents, 143 lifetime deals

1/8 deals; posts sNVDA/sAAPL as part of 70/30 portfolio engine — occasional ask-side supply

ok — 26 deals, health ok; sNVDA buy 0x08

Sells equities when overweight — could post sAAPL or sNVDA ask that stacker can sweep; armed, fallback ~13:30Z

armed, nextFallbackMin=567 (~13:30Z equi

none — w58–w59 idle is correctly attributed to no asks within oracle×1.01; no evidence of a qualifying intent that the agent skipped. w60 too recent to evaluate.

Three independent triggers: bid resolution, oracle drift, new sell intent — covers the three reasons to wake for a taker accumulator

45-min fallback is appropriately patient for a ~10 USDC/wake accumulator with sparse supply

isSellOpportunity correctly filters posterGives sAAPL/sNVDA + posterWants USDC ≤12 — tight enough to avoid large lots

zero-LLM, event-driven, uses runWatchLoop with deadline

ORACLE_BASE_SAAPL = 291.15 is hardcoded at script-write time — if the agent skips wakes for an extended period and oracle moves significantly, the drift thresho

isSellOpportunity uses l.amountHuman <= 12 on the USDC leg, but does not verify the ask price is within oracle×1.01 — the agent does that check on wake, but the

Add a price pre-check in isSellOpportunity: fetch oracle mid inline and skip fireWake if the ask price > oracle×1.01 — avoids waking only to no-op on an out-of-ceiling ask.

isSellOpportunity fires on asks above oracle×1.01 ceiling

The watcher triggers on any new sAAPL/sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC without checking price vs oracle ceiling. The agent then wakes, reads oracle, and no-ops if the ask is OOB. Costs ~1 wake token per false trigger.

In isSellOpportunity, add an inline oracle price fetch and gate fireWake on ask_price <= oracle * 1.01. Belt's readPrice tool is already imported — reuse it.

w60 action not yet in recent_wakes — verify sNVDA rotation decision

w60 fired 2 min ago (wakes=60, last_wake_min_ago=2). The log doesn't include w60's output. Step 1 focus asks if the agent rotated further into sAAPL or posted a new sNVDA bid. With sNVDA structurally bid-only and consecutive_misses already handled by w52 rotation, the correct action is to continue s

Confirm w60 in next observer run — if the agent posted a sNVDA bid despite no asks, that would be off-mission drift worth flagging.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: Prior run retracted the Sunday-bug flag and confirmed MARKET_OPEN_MS=1781530200×1000 encodes 2026-06-15T13:30Z correctly. This run resolves the Step-1 question: nextFallbackMin=2896 is NOT a miscalculated equity-open trigger — it's the 55h hardcoded fallbackMs in the wake script (`armWatcher({ fallbackMs: 55 * 3600_000 })`), which fires 06-17T05:17Z, well pa

nextFallbackMin=2896 is fully explained by `fallbackMs: 55 * 3600_000` (55h backstop, NOT the equity-open trigger). The primary trigger — a 60s poll checking `Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS` (2026-06-15T13:30Z) — is correctly encoded and will fire in ~8.4h. Agent is alive, watcher armed, zero infra errors. Eight consecutive deferrals (w34–w41) are all correctly reasoned: warming period, Sunday equity close, no buy-dip ≥1.5% (SSV closest at +1.37%, sub-threshold w40), zero crypto inventory blocking all sell-side signals.

5 lifetime deals, 0 recent deals. No buy-dip ≥1.5% crossed threshold across BTC/ETH/SSV in w34–w41; zero crypto inventory structurally blocks all three sell signals. Stocks closed Sunday. Correct structural wait — not a broken or blocked agent.

Sound and on-mission. Each of w34–w41 shows distinct, quantitative reasoning: warming-period gate (1/3, then 2/3 samples), market-hours block (Sunday), threshold guard (1.5%), and inventory check (zero SSV/ETH/BTC for sells). SSV cited at +1.37% in w40 — correctly sub-threshold. No churn, no repeated mis-framing. The agent is solving the right problem.

Primary: 60s poll fires `fireWake()` when `Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS` (2026-06-15T13:30:00Z) — expected to fire in ~8.4h

Primary: any crypto symbol in CRYPTO_AVGS deviates ≤ −1.5% from trailing avg (buy-dip)

Fallback: 55h from wake-41 timestamp (06-17T05:17Z) — excessively long backstop

MISSING: No sell-side dislocation trigger (correct now — zero inventory — but will need adding if crypto inventory is ever filled)

Primary swap liquidity hub (143 deals, 10 open intents); swing-nikita's 5 lifetime deals almost certainly cleared through LP-Maker

Both trade crypto via delivered swaps; momentum-nikita rotates into leaders (opposite direction from fade), so occasional natural cross poss

DCA swaps in overlapping assets; could supply the other side of a dislocation trade

None. No buy-dip signal crossed 1.5% in w34–w41. SSV reached +1.37% (w40) — closest approach but correctly below threshold. Stocks were closed Sunday. Sell-side blocked by zero inventory — not a missed opportunity, a structural constraint.

Primary market-open trigger is a 60s poll on `Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS` — fires precisely at 13:30Z, not relying on the fallback for the intended event

MARKET_OPEN_MS = 1781530200 × 1000 correctly encodes 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z (verified against prior run)

Buy-dip filter correctly excludes sell-side triggers given zero inventory on all three crypto assets

Trailing averages from wake 41 embedded inline — deterministic, no LLM needed in the watch loop

60s poll cadence appropriate for sub-minute market-open precision; fallback exists as backstop

fallbackMs = 55h but script comment says '~15.2h' — comment/code mismatch (55h was distance from an earlier write-time, not corrected when script was regenerate

55h fallback is far too long: if the primary `fireWake()` call silently fails at 13:30Z (e.g., belt/tool error), the backstop won't catch it for another ~40h af

Sell-side dislocations not in wake triggers — acceptable now but should be wired in once crypto inventory is non-zero

Tighten `fallbackMs` to `16 * 3600_000` (16h) so the backstop fires at most one wake-gap past market open if the primary poll trigger ever fails — rather than 55h later. Comment should read 'fallback covers day-end' not '~15.2h'.

fallbackMs=55h is an over-long safety net for a same-day market-open trigger

Wake 41 set fallbackMs = 55 * 3600_000 at 22:17Z on Jun 14. The intended event (US market open) is at 13:30Z Jun 15 — 15.2h away. The 55h fallback fires 06-17T05:17Z (40h after open). If the primary `fireWake()` call at 13:30Z silently fails, the agent won't recover until Tuesday. Comment even says

In next generated wake script, set fallbackMs = 16 * 3600_000 (covers remainder of trading day as backstop) and align comment. Primary poll trigger logic is correct — no change needed there.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

SSV margin outside [1.55%, 2.05%] tolerance — genuine requote. Wake 185 skipped same requote; wake 186 corrects it. Gas

14 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781502133; next poll 86s

Summary: RECOVERED since last summary: wakes_failing is now false, wake_error null — the 'launch-wake exited 1' breakage has resolved. Active w179–w185 (7 wakes since 04:09), executing gap-risk reposts, rival-aware requotes, and pre-expiry refreshes across 6 live baits. Same platform error string as arb-hunter-tom, but vulture recovered while arb has not — suggests t

Vulture recovered from the binary crash noted last run; 7 wakes since 04:09 show disciplined bait management. The live blocker is now toolchain: w185 (05:13) identified SSV at 2.24% above tolerance but CMQ's sub-floor bug suppressed the cancel as a false positive — that intent is decaying without refresh. Token spend ($12.05/5h, 7.2% pool) against $2.16 lifetime realized PnL signals cost-efficiency concern independent of the CMQ bug.

w181, w183, w185 all cite 'CMQ flags false positives (rival sub-floor bug)'; w185 specifically: SSV 2.24% above upper tolerance identified but cancel suppressed — no on-chain action taken. Persistent across ≥3 consecutive wakes, unpatched.

Sound execution discipline: gap-risk awareness, rival-aware targeting, honeypot pre-seeding (IDs 779/836/869), pre-expiry repost cadence. Agent correctly diagnoses CMQ false positives as a tool bug rather than a real signal — but has no workaround, so SSV margin drift accumulates unaddressed. Sound reasoning, partially solving the wrong layer of the problem (diagnosing but not bypassing the blocke

new takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges, token-free, 30s poll)

pre-expiry ~5 min before soonest intent expiry

quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes cancelCmds > 0)

hard fallback 2h (nextFallbackMin=30 at snapshot)

MISSING: watcher-process crash leaves unmonitored gap before relaunch — w181 and w185 both end 'Watcher dead… Watcher relaunched' with no logged crash cause or

3 of 8 recent deals, primary swap hub with deep inventory and 10 open intents

2 of 8 recent deals, shared swap flow on fast-moving assets

wakes_failing last cycle but paradoxical

2 of 8 recent deals, vulture takes mispriced swaps/options writer posts; sNVDA buy 0x0856 live

1 of 8 recent deals, occasional swap overlap on momentum moves

SSV intent at 2.24% above upper tolerance (w185 05:13) — CMQ false positive suppressed cancel+repost; 1 confirmed missed requote since w185, intent now decaying stale. No other missed takeable edges identified from wake logs.

Token-free polling via execSync — zero LLM cost between wakes, appropriate for high-cadence scavenger

Pre-seeded honeypot IDs (779, 836, 869) prevent repeat-fire on confirmed traps

Pre-expiry trigger 5 min before soonest expiry matches gap-risk discipline agent already demonstrates in wake logs

30s poll cadence balanced — responsive to fast edges without sub-minute thrash

2h fallback is patient and appropriate for a mission that waits for mispricings

CMQ false-positive bypass: watcher fires on cancelCmds > 0 but agent discards them as sub-floor artifacts — each such wake burns tokens (~$0.21/wake) with no on

No watcher-crash cause logging — 'Watcher dead' appears in w181 and w185 with no root cause; gap duration before relaunch is unmonitored

Concurrent-wake guard absent — w182 fired twice (04:28 and 04:33) as two parallel sessions; race risk on cancel+repost sequences

Patch check-my-quotes.ts to filter rival intents priced below the contract floor before emitting cancelCmds — so the watcher only fires on genuine erosion. This unblocks the SSV requote w185 correctly identified (2.24% above tolerance) and

CMQ sub-floor rival bug blocks valid requotes

check-my-quotes.ts emits cancel commands for rivals priced below the contract floor (false positives). In w185, SSV was 2.24% above upper tolerance — a genuine requote signal — but CMQ's output was discarded as a false positive and no on-chain action was taken. Confirmed across w181, w183, w185 (≥3

In check-my-quotes.ts, exclude rivals whose price is below the contract floor before computing cancelCmds. Alternatively expose a --ignore-sub-floor flag the watcher can pass.

Watcher process dies silently between polls

w181 and w185 both end 'Watcher dead. [...] Watcher relaunched.' No crash cause is logged, no gap duration recorded. Creates an unmonitored window where pre-expiry and edge triggers are missed.

Add an uncaughtException / unhandledRejection handler in vulture-watch.ts that logs the error before exiting, so the crash cause is visible in wake logs.

Duplicate wake IDs — concurrent-wake interference

w182 fired at 04:28 and again at 04:33 as two distinct sessions sharing the same ID. Prior summaries tracked this from w173. Two concurrent wake scripts risk conflicting cancel+repost sequences on the same intents.

Add a PID lockfile check at wake entry: if a lock exists and the PID is alive, exit immediately. Release lock on clean exit or crash.

HUB HOLDS, OPTION PAIR DARK

~7 settled (est.); 2/20 open intents (Polymarket-Ljuba binaries)

Active — 8/16 recent deals; arb-hunter recovered from transient exited-1 failure

Intermittent — Stacker bid 2111 live, LP is sole ask poster; no fill since w57 (

Option-Writer-Matheus + Stacker-Massimo (buyers) ← [NO SELLER]

FROZEN — 15+ LP wakes with zero sNVDA ask; structurally bid-only fleet-wide

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom / Vulture-Andrew

Active but thin — Vulture has 6 live baits; CMQ bug suppressing ≥3 reposts (w181

Armed, waiting — fast gap 1.06pp vs 2pp threshold; 2 recent fills via LP

Option-Writer-Matheus ⇄ Option-Taker-Matheus; Polymarket-Ljuba ⇄ [binary takers]

DARK — option pair blocked by template hash mismatch (324+ min); binary takers r

AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH in option-taker-matheus does not match option-writer-matheus's live template (0x0856 / 0x0873)

Option-taker watcher sees only 'Swaps and non-Option templates' on book and never fires; option-writer's live 0x0873 bid

w36 log: 'only Swaps and non-Option templates on book'; 0x0873 visible in open book; option-taker reliableCounterparties=0; armed 324+ min with no wake

Zero sNVDA ask supply fleet-wide — LP-Maker carries no sNVDA ask for 15+ wakes, no other seller agent exists

Option-Writer-Matheus (0x0873 stepped down to oracle MID after 10+ unfilled bids) and Stacker-Massimo (rotated away from

Open book: zero sNVDA asks; LP wake-191 confirms no sNVDA ask scripted; 10+ consecutive option-writer unfilled; stacker last sNVDA balance 0.129488 unchanged since w52

CMQ rival sub-floor detection false positive in vulture-andrew suppressing cancel/repost

SSV bait confirmed 2.24% above upper tolerance at w185 but not cancelled; positions decay past optimal repost window; fi

w181, w183, w185 all log 'CMQ flags false positives (rival sub-floor bug)'; no on-chain action at w185 despite clear above-tolerance trigger

LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole active multi-instrument maker (143 lifetime deals, 13/16 recent fills)

Arb-hunter-tom, stacker-massimo, momentum-nikita, and vulture-andrew all single-counterparty dependent on LP; any LP dow

Recent deals: LP present in 13/16; arb-hunter reliableCounterparties=1; stacker=1; momentum=1; no second maker active across BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sMSFT

Arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew simultaneously offline (launch-wake exited 1) last cycle — the two primary binary take

Polymarket-Ljuba's #1827 (sMSFT<$420) and #1916 (sNVDA>$195 Jun19 @ 77.93%) unfilled 410+ min; binary market dark while

Both agents confirmed wakes_failing last cycle; polymarket-ljuba reliableCounterparties=1 (bear-yosher only, HALT mode); 4 lifetime binary deals total

Option pair structurally dark: AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH mismatch

Option-taker-matheus's AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH does not match option-writer's 0x0856/0x0873 template. Taker has been armed and silent 324+ min while option-writer holds a live bid at oracle MID. Both agents are funded and running — this is a pure filter misconfiguration, not a market gap.

w36: 'only Swaps and non-Option templates on book'; 0x0873 visible in open book 22m; option-taker reliableCounterparties=0; 0 option-pair settled deals in recent history

Update AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH in option-taker-matheus's wake script to match the deployed hash of option-writer-matheus's template (0x0856/0x0873 series)

sNVDA bid-only fleet-wide — no seller exists

15+ consecutive LP-Maker wakes with zero sNVDA ask. Option-Writer stepped down from +0.5% to oracle MID (0x0873) after 10+ unfilled bids — defensible — but there is simply no supply anywhere. Stacker-Massimo abandoned sNVDA at w52. This is a fleet composition gap, not a pricing error.

Open book: zero sNVDA asks among 20 live intents; LP wake-191 no sNVDA ask; option-writer 10+ consecutive unfilled; stacker sNVDA balance frozen at 0.129488

Deploy a sNVDA seller agent or restore LP-Maker sNVDA ask posting (resolve inventory constraint)

CMQ rival sub-floor bug suppressing vulture-andrew repost

False positive detections in CMQ's rival-sub-floor logic are blocking cancel/repost on vulture-andrew across ≥3 consecutive wakes. SSV bait logged 2.24% above upper tolerance at w185 with no on-chain action. Positions decay without refresh.

w181, w183, w185: 'CMQ flags false positives (rival sub-floor bug)'; SSV 2.24% above upper tolerance confirmed at w185, cancel suppressed

Patch CMQ rival sub-floor detection to correctly classify above-tolerance positions; add bypass for unambiguous above-ceiling cases

LP-Maker-Matheus single point of failure for swap market

LP accounts for 13/16 recent fills and is the only active maker across BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sMSFT. Four taker agents (arb-hunter, stacker, momentum, vulture) each report reliableCounterparties=1. LP downtime starves the entire fleet.

143 lifetime deals; 13/16 recent fills; arb-hunter/stacker/momentum each reliableCounterparties=1; no second maker active on any instrument

Deploy a second swap maker on SSV + sAAPL at minimum to reduce single-maker dependency

Binary market dark — taker coverage thin even post-recovery

Polymarket-Ljuba's #1827 and #1916 unfilled 410+ min during simultaneous arb-hunter/vulture outage. Both takers recovered but polymarket-ljuba still reports reliableCounterparties=1 (bear-yosher in HALT, nextFallbackMin=106). Binary fill coverage remains fragile.

polymarket-ljuba: 4 lifetime deals, 2 open binaries 410+ min unfilled; bear-yosher HALT since w57 (21:56Z June 14); arb/vulture now recovered but untested on binaries post-recovery

Monitor arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew for binary intent evaluation in next 2-3 wakes now that both recovered; flag if still not taking

launch-wake exited 1 was transient — both agents recovered without intervention

Arb-hunter-tom (wakes_failing cleared, deals 184-185 at w288-289, w291-w298 coherent WAITs) and vulture-andrew (recovered, 7 active wakes since 04:09, w179-w185 reposts) both resolved the shared error. Confirmed transient, not a platform regression.

arb-hunter: wakes_failing=false, wake_error=null, 2 deals last cycle; vulture: wakes_failing=false, 7 wakes since 04:09Z

No action needed; monitor for recurrence over next 3 cycles

Fix AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH in option-taker-matheus to match option-writer's 0x0856/0x0873 template — unblocks the option pair immediately with zero capital changes

Deploy a sNVDA seller or restore LP-Maker sNVDA ask inventory — two funded buyers (option-writer at oracle MID, stacker) are blocked by zero supply

Patch CMQ rival sub-floor detection bug blocking vulture-andrew repost (SSV 2.24% above tolerance, no action at w185)

Deploy a second swap maker on SSV + sAAPL to eliminate LP-Maker single-point-of-failure (13/16 recent fills, 4 takers with reliableCounterparties=1)

Resolve index-maker / index-taker deployment decision (46 null cycles) — deploy both sides or decommission

Same as last run: two agents show 'launch-wake exited 1' errors (arb-hunter-tom persistent, vulture-andrew newly broken confirmed). LP-Maker-Matheus hub holding with 10 open intents and 143 lifetime deals; Arb-Hunter-Tom paradoxically still landing deals (34 lifetime, 2 last cycle) despite wakes_fai

Shared 'launch-wake exited 1' on arb-hunter-tom AND vulture-andrew — 2 agents, same error string, possible platform regression; vulture-andrew has 4 open intents decaying with no agent to refresh them

LP-Maker-Matheus is hub for 13/16 recent deals (8× with arb-hunter-tom alone) — arb-hunter-tom breakage directly reduces LP fill rate

sNVDA structurally bid-only: 15+ consecutive LP wakes with no ask supply fleet-wide; stacker-massimo and option-writer-matheus both bid-side, no seller anywhere

US equity open ~13:30Z: rebalancer-lior (nextFallbackMin=567, targeting 13:30Z), swing-nikita (nextFallbackMin=2898 — anomalous, needs check), mimic-ljuba fallback fires ~13:49Z, bear-yosher armed

Option-taker-matheus seed-on-first-poll bug confirmed unfixed; option-writer-matheus sNVDA buy 0x0856 live — gap between writer and taker persists

Index-maker + index-taker: 45th consecutive null cycle, fully undeployed pair

wakes_failing=true persists yet 2 deals landed last cycle (Deal 184 w288 SSV +139bps, Deal 185 w289 SSV +28bps) and burn_5h_usd=$0 — are only some wakes failing (intermittent error, stale flag) or is the agent executing on fallback paths on

BTC ±1.5% deviation trigger was set at $65,424.24 and inferred to have fired w59 ~07:40Z — did w59 actually execute, what was the reassessment outcome, and is the agent correctly positioned heading into US equity open at 13:30Z today?

45th consecutive null cycle — armed=false, pidAlive=false, no wallet, no env, no script. Confirm no new deployment signal; this is a boarding-level escalation, not an analysis question.

45th consecutive null cycle — identical undeployed state, sole counterparty (index-maker) also dead. Confirm no change; note the pair remains a structural gap in the IndexBasket market.

sNVDA ask dark 15+ consecutive wakes — has any sNVDA supply appeared in the open book since last summary? SSV ask now at +75bps — is it being taken or sitting? With arb-hunter-tom degraded (8 of last 16 deals were LP↔arb-hunter), is fill ra

Fallback fires ~13:49Z, right at US equity open — in the 387 min since w109 (22:31Z June 14), have any BinaryBets appeared in the book that crossed the ≥3pp edge floor the agent would act on? Is the agent correctly positioned to scan at wak

Field stayed sub-2pp (fast gap peaked 1.73pp at w39) through last 9 wakes — with US equity open approaching at 13:30Z, is there any pre-market setup in the momentum scan that would fire an early wake, or does the agent correctly wait for co

Seed-on-first-poll bug (lines 22-24) still live and unfixed — option-writer-matheus has live sNVDA buy 0x0856 open; does this intent appear in the book in a way option-taker would see on its 6h fallback wake, or does the seed bug make it in

sNVDA buy 0x0856 (10 USDC, oracle+0.5%) is the sole live intent — has it been filled (recent deals show Stacker-Massimo↔Option-Writer-Matheus settled)? With BTC put 0x0833 expired proving zero option demand market-wide, is Engine 1 (option

Both maker binaries (#1827 sMSFT<$420, #1916 sNVDA>$195 Jun19) open and unfilled — wake script has zero price-drift trigger so agent is blind to oracle moves; has sNVDA moved materially toward $195 since w57 (408 min ago)? Is the 1034-min f

Targeting 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z US equity open (now ~2h away, nextFallbackMin=567 confirms ~14:20Z fallback active) — has the 13:30Z trigger fired yet? Last cycle confirmed BTC DCA complete, sMSFT approved w46; what slice is queued for the m

Just woke (last_wake_min_ago=0) — what action did this wake produce? sAAPL accumulation was active (bids 2069/2111, sweeps 2063/2075/2143); with sNVDA still structurally bid-only, did the agent rotate further into sAAPL or post a new sNVDA

nextFallbackMin=2898 (~48h) is anomalously long for a market-open trigger — is 2026-06-15T13:30Z correctly encoded in the watcher (as confirmed for rebalancer-lior), or has swing-nikita miscalculated its next equity-open trigger? No crypto

NEWLY BROKEN — wakes_failing='launch-wake exited 1', same error string as arb-hunter-tom; 4 open intents (sAAPL, sMSFT, BTC×2, ETH, SSV) are live and decaying with no agent to refresh. Is this the same platform-level binary regression as ar

Investigate shared 'launch-wake exited 1' error on arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew — same error string on 2 agents strongly suggests a platform-level binary/toolchain regression rather than two inde

vulture-andrew: 4 open intents (sAAPL, sMSFT, BTC×2, ETH, SSV) are expiring with ~48–59 min left and no agent running to refresh them — operator intervention needed to restart or the book loses those

option-taker-matheus: fix seed-on-first-poll bug (lines 22-24 of current.ts) — the agent has been relying solely on its 6h fallback for multiple cycles and misses all pre-existing options including op

polymarket-ljuba: add a price-drift / oracle-threshold trigger to the wake script — both open binaries (#1827, #1916) are exposed to sNVDA/sMSFT moves the agent can't see during its 1034-min sleep.

sNVDA supply gap: 15+ LP wakes with no sNVDA ask fleet-wide — no agent is configured to sell sNVDA; flag to fleet operator to either deploy a sNVDA seller or adjust LP inventory parameters.

Index pair (index-maker + index-taker): 45th consecutive null cycle — escalate to deployment owner; the IndexBasket market has never had a maker and the taker is waiting on a counterparty that doesn't