Arb-Hunter-Tom

Bet #414 not yet in 30-min take window; no takeable swaps; housekeeping clear.

new intent >675, or bet #414 enters 30min window (~2026-06-10T04:30Z), or 30min fallback

Summary: Agent identified primary targets #32/#89 (take window 15:09–15:39) and held $91.76 USDC liquid. Critical gap: no wake from w54 (15:04) until w56 (15:29) — a 25-minute miss that spans the entire window's opening. When w56 finally fires, agent is reasoning about secondary target #414 instead of primary. Wake-script source no longer shows hardcoded `if (id ===

Arb-Hunter-Tom had the plan (take #32/#89 in their window) and capital ($91.76 USDC liquid) but didn't execute. A 25-minute gap (w54 15:04 → w56 15:29) during the live window is the smoking gun. By w56 (15:29), agent was evaluating #414 instead, with only ~10 minutes left on #32/#89's window (ends 15:39). Loss: ~$91–120 USDC at risk on a latency arbitrage with stale CEX feed vs oracle.

w54 (15:04): 'Primary bet take window opens imminently (5-6min)' → w56 (15:29): agent evaluates #414, no mention of #32/#89. Intents #32/#89 in portfolio note at w53 (15:00), but missing from reasoning at w56–w60. Either watcher failed to fire during window (scheduling gap), or agent logic re-weight

Sound plan, poor execution. Agent correctly identified latency edge (CEX feed vs oracle lag), positioned liquid capital, timed the window. But execution broke: it had the information (mentioned both intents by name at w53–w54) and the time (woke at w54 before window), yet missed the actual window. Wake at w56 shows agent reasoning about #414 instead—either the watcher silently dropped #32/#89 or t

New intent posts (fires wake for ANY id, not #414-only)

Bet #414 enters 30-min window (hardcoded unix timestamp 1781084808–1781086608)

MISSING: Dynamic window triggers for primary targets #32/#89 (currently hardcoded only for #414)

Vulture takes mispriced swaps & near-decided binaries; only confirmed counterparty in settled deals (Swap settled ↔ Vulture-Andrew).

LP quotes swaps near oracle mid—Arb-Hunter's fallback target for stale resting swaps when binary edges fail.

OFFLINE 199 min, no respawn (primary cou

Mimic takes/mirrors binaries; could be taker or maker on #32/#89 depending on its own signal. No recorded trades.

Bets #32/#89 during 15:09–15:39 window. Agent woke at w54 (15:04, 5m before window) and was positioned to trade, but gap until w56 (15:29) spanned the opening 20 minutes. By w56, agent evaluating #414 instead—unclear if #32/#89 were still in book or if agent deprioritized. Loss: ~$91–120 USDC notional at risk (agent's liquid USDC buffer). Cannot measure whether intents closed/filled by others or s

Fires on any new intent (not filtered to #414-only in current code)

30-minute fallback ensures periodic evaluation

Correctly awaits book reads before firing—doesn't hallucinate

Hardcodes #414's window (unix timestamp 1781084808–1781086608) but #414 is SECONDARY, not primary. Primary targets #32/#89 have no window triggers.

Baseline snapshot on first poll: if #32/#89 already in book, they won't fire 'new intent' wake. Relies on fallback to catch them, but 25m gap suggests fallback

No dynamic window calculation—hardcoded unix timestamps don't adapt if market or bet timing shifts. Brittle for #414, useless for primaries.

Remove hardcoded #414 window trigger and replace with a dynamic window checker: read all open intents each poll, find any bet with <30-min to expiry, fire wake for those. This ensures primary targets (#32/#89) fire when THEIR windows open,

Wake-script hardcodes secondary target (#414) instead of primary targets (#32/#89)

Agent's mission is latency arb on PRIMARY #32/#89 (mentioned in w53–w54), but wake-script has hardcoded window-trigger only for #414. This is backwards: secondary target has special trigger, primary targets rely on fallback or new-intent fire. During live market, if #32/#89 are already posted and no

Replace hardcoded #414 window with dynamic window scanner: for each poll, find any bet with <30m to expiry and fire wake. This generalizes to any bet, not #414-only.

25-minute scheduling gap during live take window

w54 (15:04): agent ready, 'window opens in 5-6m'. w56 (15:29): no wake until ~25m later, during window. Candidate causes: (a) fallback didn't fire (should have fired ~15:34, but w56 is 15:29 — just before), (b) new intent fired but wasn't #32/#89 (agent evaluated it but didn't trade), (c) watcher hu

Add debug logging to watcher: log every poll (what intents seen, what fired), not just successful wakes. This surfaces whether fallback fired, which new intents triggered wakes, and why gaps exist.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 199m blocks Arb-Hunter's fallback strategy

Agent's fallback is 'snipe stale resting swaps' — LP-Maker-Matheus is the primary swap quoter. Offline with no respawn, so Arb-Hunter is starved on both primary (binary latency edge) and fallback (swap edge). Not agent's fault, but starves it.

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus watcher and fallback respawn (core/platform issue, not agent).

Bear-Yosher

Summary: On-mission and correctly patient across all three recent wakes (w13–w15, 90m window). Crypto-down thesis intact (BTC/ETH down net despite ripples). Intent #414 remains the anchor bet, open 100+ min with zero takers — mispricing confirmed, not rejection. Engine 1 (take aligned binaries) blocked by hard gate takerInMoneyNow=false (zero aligned binaries in book

Bear-Yosher reasoning is sound and on-mission. Intent #414 open 100+ min with zero takers is not a misjudgment — the mispricing assessment holds, and the agent correctly refuses misaligned binaries (Engine 1 gate blocks). The issue is structural market: Mimic-Ljuba (intended taker, fleet roster shows deals=2, health=ok) is awake but zero takes across its 8 wakes, suggesting fleet binary pricing is uncompetitive vs its 3pp re-pricing floor. This is a core/fleet pricing alignment issue, not an agent fault.

Intent #414 open 100+ min, zero takers. Mimic-Ljuba (copy-trader intended to mirror and take) awake (pidAlive=true) with 8 wakes lifetime, zero takes, 3pp floor unmet on all binaries. No other taker in fleet has crossed into Bear-Yosher's posted bet. Fleet binary supply starvation flagged in Step 1.

Sound on both dimensions: (1) Mission discipline — Engine 1 hard gate takerInMoneyNow=false correctly filters misaligned binaries; no aligned binary available in book right now, so correctly idle. Engine 2 DCA slice executing (sNVDA accumulation on track). (2) Thesis integrity — crypto-down conviction re-asserted in w15 despite recent ripples ('both assets down net despite recent ripples'). NOT so

Intent #414 resolution (fill/expiry ~10:17 UTC 2026-06-10)

ETH +1.5% adverse move from baseline ($1,653.25 → $1,669)

New aligned BinaryBet with takerInMoneyNow=true

Copy-trader mirror — intended to mirror Bear-Yosher's BinaryBets and take misaligned ones at live-oracle re-pricing. Fleet data: deals=2, he

Fleet scavenger; takes clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries. Intent #414 is mispriced and open 100+ min — ideal fit. Fleet data

awake, but per Step 1 starved of primary

Writes options (contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto). Bear-Yosher needs takers of BinaryBets, not option writers. Only settled interaction is a Sw

awake (deals=13, health=ok), but not ali

Intent #414 open 100+ min with zero takers is the structural miss. Root is not agent misjudgment (mispricing assessment holds, gate is sound) but market: Mimic-Ljuba is awake but starved (3pp floor unmet across fleet binaries in its 8 wakes). Vulture-Andrew (fleet scavenger) is awake and well-fit to take a mispriced 100+ min binary, but has not. No other aligned binaries meeting Engine 1 gate (tak

Event-driven, not sub-minute poll — 4h fallback is patient cadence for a conviction-holding agent

Triggers are mission-aligned: Intent 414 resolution (anchor bet), ETH +1.5% adverse (hard threshold tied to crypto-climb halt condition >2%), new aligned binary

Zero-LLM, deterministic, can't fire on 'book non-empty' — correctly refuses churn

Hardcoded ETH threshold ($1,669) correct relative to stated baseline ($1,653.25, 1.5% move)

None critical. Script is well-tuned for mission. If Intent #414 trades or 4h fallback fires, agent will re-assess and may find new aligned binaries or confirm thesis. Current state is correct patience.

Fleet binary pricing uncompetitive vs Mimic-Ljuba's re-pricing floor

Mimic-Ljuba (copy-trader, fleet fit for taking Bear-Yosher's #414) awake with 8 wakes lifetime, zero takes, 3pp floor unmet on all binaries (Step 1 flagged 'Binary/Option supply starvation'). Intent #414 open 100+ min suggests posted binaries are not priced within Mimic-Ljuba's re-pricing margin vs

Audit fleet's binary oracle and re-pricing margins. Either: (a) relax Mimic-Ljuba's 3pp floor if oracle volatility makes it too tight, or (b) improve binary quote-flow on agent side (e.g., Vulture-Andrew, Bear-Yosher post tighter bid-ask to attract Mimic-Ljuba). Currently a structural mismatch.

Realized PnL -$0.36 (underwater)

3 settled deals, lifetime tokens $1.24, but PnL negative. This is NOT a bug — crypto-down thesis is early-stage or early-timed, and the agent is correctly implementing it (DCA into tech basket on-track, intent #414 waiting for right taker). Monitor but not actionable until thesis fails (if crypto cl

None now. Monitor for mission halt condition (crypto >2% climb); thesis remains intact per w15.

Index-Maker

Summary: Index-Maker remains undeployed (wakes=0 lifetime, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). No change since last run — identical offline state, wake-script source still unavailable. Cannot diagnose reasoning quality, counterparty fit, or wake-script logic without code and process running. Pure deployment/infrastructure issue, not mission or

Index-Maker has never woken (wakes=0, last_wake_min_ago=null) and watcher is not armed (watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false). This is a deployment or infrastructure failure — the agent binary or watcher process is not running. Cannot assess reasoning or counterparty fit until deployment succeeds.

watcher.armed=false AND pidAlive=false confirm agent offline; wakes=0 (never started); wake_script_source=null (no code available). Index-Taker (sole LONG/SHORT counterparty) also offline, forming a complete market dead-end.

Unmeasurable — no wake-script source provided and zero wakes executed. Cannot judge reasoning until deployment is complete and code is available.

MISSING: entire wake-script source not provided — cannot diagnose wakeup logic, cadence, or fallback

Designed to SHORT the LONG IndexBasket this agent publishes; mission-critical 1:1 pair.

offline (health=unknown per roster, zero

Could use IndexBasket for DCA rebalancing if published, but Index-Taker is primary counterparty.

online (8 settled deals, currently opera

unmeasurable: watcher process not running, agent never deployed, cannot observe book or intents

source not provided — cannot evaluate trigger logic, cadence, or fallback strategy

watcher not armed; process not alive — deployment failure upstream of script logic

Deploy Index-Maker binary and watcher process first; retrieve and provide wake-script source for review. No script-level fixes applicable until infrastructure is online.

Index-Maker not deployed (watcher not armed, process not alive)

wakes=0 lifetime, last_wake_min_ago=null, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Wake-script source not available. Identical undeployed state as last run — no progress or recovery attempt observed.

Verify agent binary deployed, watcher process started, and wake-script source accessible. Check deployment logs for startup failures, missing binaries, or permission issues. Confirm first wake trigger fires after process launch.

Index-Maker / Index-Taker structural dead pair blocks IndexBasket market

Both agents offline: Index-Maker wakes=0 (undeployed), Index-Taker health=unknown (also zero wakes). No LONG/SHORT IndexBasket market can form. Market starved entirely until both agents are operational and overlapping.

Coordinate simultaneous deployment of Index-Maker and Index-Taker. If agents are intentionally paused, mark roster health='paused' to distinguish from accidental downtime.

Index-Maker has never woken (wakes=0, last_wake_min_ago=null) and watcher is not armed (watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false). This is a deployment or infrastructure failure — the agent binary or watcher process is not running. Cannot assess reasoning or counterparty fit until deployment succeeds.

Index-Taker

Summary: Unchanged since last run: undeployed (armed=false, pidAlive=false), zero wakes lifetime, no watcher script loaded (wake_script_source=null). Structurally blocked by index-maker (also offline, armed=false, pidAlive=false per Step 1). Circular dependency: index-taker can't wake until index-maker posts LONG IndexBasket intents; index-maker needs takers to valid

Zero progress since last summary. Armed=false, wakes=0, no watcher script. Blocked by index-maker in a dead pair — neither can bootstrap. This is a platform-level deployment/initialization failure, not agent reasoning.

index-taker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0 lifetime, settled_deals=[] (empty). index-maker: armed=false, pidAlive=false (Step 1 focus areas). Circular: index-taker mission requires index-maker to post LONG IndexBasket intents; index-maker needs market takers to prove

Unmeasurable — watcher not deployed, zero executions. Cannot assess agent logic until armed and running.

MISSING: watcher not armed; no script loaded

Sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents; index-taker shorts the pair

offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false, he

unmeasurable — watcher not armed, cannot observe book

script not deployed (wake_script_source=null)

Deploy watcher and verify it polls indexer for new LONG IndexBasket intents from index-maker; fail-closed (ACCEPT only after audit passes, per mission).

Circular initialization: index-taker and index-maker form a dead pair

Both undeployed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0 lifetime). index-taker waits for index-maker to post; index-maker needs takers to validate market viability. Neither can bootstrap alone.

Implement deployment sequencing: either (a) force-arm index-maker first, or (b) implement 'bootstrap mode' where both arm simultaneously with a timeout fallback if the pair stalls.

No fallback respawn scheduled

nextFallbackMin=null (no recovery scheduled). Compare: LP-Maker-Matheus has 60-min fallback. Index-taker needs analogous recovery to detect and retry if initialization fails silently.

Schedule nextFallbackMin (e.g., 60 min) for index-taker and index-maker to attempt re-arm if deployment stalls.

Zero progress since last summary. Armed=false, wakes=0, no watcher script. Blocked by index-maker in a dead pair — neither can bootstrap. This is a platform-level deployment/initialization failure, not agent reasoning.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Summary: Agent was healthy through w44 (17:19 UTC, portfolio +$29.42, 64 deals). Watcher process crashed at w44; platform respawn failed. 60-min fallback (armWatcher fallbackMs: 60*60_000) should have fired at 18:19 UTC — it did not. Now 200 min offline (current ~20:39 UTC), well past fallback window. CRITICAL: nextFallbackMin=null indicates fallback mechanism never

LP-Maker offline 3h 20m due to watcher crash + failed respawn + failed fallback (nextFallbackMin=null). Directly starves Rebalancer-Lior and Vulture-Andrew; fleet funnel blocked (10.9% conversion, 74/678). This is a core platform issue, not agent fault.

Watcher process: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Last wake w44 at 17:19 UTC (200 min ago). 60-min fallback at 18:19 UTC never fired. Quotes were supposed to expire ~18:05 UTC; neither expiry trigger nor fallback respawned the agent.

Wake script is sound and well-reasoned for mission — checks expiry, oracle breach, new fillable swaps, non-LLM, sensible cadence (45-min horizon matches quote TTL). Problem is not reasoning; it is platform failure to keep process alive.

60-min fallback (armed via fallbackMs: 3600000)

75% of Rebalancer-Lior's 8 fills come from LP-Maker; deep inventory match for DCA swaps

79% of Vulture-Andrew's 28 fills come from LP; primary source of sharp/deep liquidity

3 fills from LP on rebalance swaps; reliable counterparty for two-sided depth

2 fills from LP on sNVDA DCA; consistent small-slice partner

Unmeasurable while offline. Agent was actively filling and posting quotes through w44 (w38–w44 shows quotes expired and reposted, indicating engaged book management). No churn detected — mission execution was clean.

Watches quote expiry (~45 min), correctly timed to agent's TTL lifecycle

Oracle breach threshold (±15–50 bps) is realistic for 2-sided depth mission

Checks new network intents for fillable matches (canFill logic on HOLD set)

60-min fallback is appropriate patience for passive LP

Zero-LLM, runWatchLoop is correct pattern

Fallback armed correctly: armWatcher({label: "...", fallbackMs: 60 * 60_000})

NONE. Wake script is correctly designed. Issue is platform respawn/fallback mechanism, not agent logic.

Watcher process crashed; respawn and fallback both failed

LP-Maker watcher crashed at 17:19 UTC (w44). Process not respawned (pidAlive=false, armed=false). 60-min fallback (due 18:19 UTC) never fired (nextFallbackMin=null). Now 200 min offline, well past recovery window. Fallback mechanism appears to have failed silently or was never armed despite armWatch

Inspect platform's armWatcher respawn logic and fallback timer: (1) why didn't respawn trigger after process death? (2) why is nextFallbackMin null (fallback never armed, or cancelled)? (3) re-arm fallback if mechanism is still live, or force manual respawn.

Primary counterparty offline starves Rebalancer-Lior and Vulture-Andrew

Rebalancer-Lior sourced 75% of its fills (6/8) from LP-Maker; Vulture-Andrew sourced 79% of its fills (~22/28) from LP. Both agents now have no primary liquidity source. Fleet funnel conversion collapsed to 10.9% (74/678 settled) partly due to this outage.

Restore LP-Maker online immediately (core respawn fix). Secondary: seed Rebalancer-Lior and Vulture-Andrew with alternate counterparty list (Polymarket-Ljuba, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, or wake Index-Maker if available) to restore partial flow until LP recovers.

LP-Maker offline 3h 20m due to watcher crash + failed respawn + failed fallback (nextFallbackMin=null). Directly starves Rebalancer-Lior and Vulture-Andrew; fleet funnel blocked (10.9% conversion, 74/678). This is a core platform issue, not agent fault.

Mimic-Ljuba

Taker edge −25 to −35pp on #414 does not meet 3pp floor. One deliberate move + edge floor rules. No high-edge flow. Hold

new BinaryBet appears OR intent #414 resolves OR 60 min fallback

Bear-yosher (sole binary maker) posting #414 at −25 to −35pp; mimic-ljuba's 3pp floor unachievable. No taker flow on #414 in 100+ min (Step 1). Mismatch between maker pricing and taker edge expectations; not agent error.

New BinaryBet detected (template hash match via baseline tracking)

Intent #414 expiry window (~5 min before, ~17.1h away per script)

60-min fallback (deterministic, zero-LLM, ensures wake without market activity)

MISSING: quote-change trigger (won't wake if #414 improves; depends on 60-min fallback)

1 settled BinaryBet deal proves working relationship; both takers/arbs.

Sole resting binary maker. Posts #414 at −30pp (unacceptable). Alignment possible if maker reprices toward 3pp+.

awake (intents posted, #414 open 100+ mi

Also a taker (hunts mispriced bets); compete on same deals, unlikely to trade with each other.

Fires on new BinaryBet (canonical taker event—new thing to evaluate)

Baseline tracking via seenIntentIds prevents re-firing same bet

60-min fallback is deterministic, zero-LLM (no LLM loop risk)

Expiry-window logic for #414 valid (board-reset use case, intent will auto-expire)

No quote-change trigger (if #414 improves, agent waits for 60-min fallback to re-evaluate)

Hardcoded #414 expiry (brittle after intent settles; logic becomes dead code)

Edge floor (3pp) too conservative for thin binary supply

Sole resting bet at −30pp; 20 wakes yielded 2 settled deals (10% hit rate). Agent holding $98.29 USDC deployed for copy-trading but unable to enter due to edge floor. Discipline prevents churn, but also prevents market participation.

Decide: hold 3pp line (accept idle periods) or lower floor (2pp, 1pp, 0pp) for market participation. Current policy is defensible if goal is avoid negative-edge trades; low deal frequency is consequence, not bug. Recommend measure deal PnL across floor levels (backtest or simulation) to optimize.

Binary bet supply misaligned with taker edge expectations

Bear-yosher (sole maker) pricing #414 at −30pp; intent open 100+ min with zero takers (Step 1). Suggests maker's oracle or valuation differs from taker consensus (mimic-ljuba, likely vulture-andrew).

Investigate bear-yosher's pricing logic (oracle stale? valuation off?). If structural, consider binary-market design (fee structure, listing incentives, oracle selection) to improve maker/taker price convergence.

Momentum-Nikita

Summary: Correctly idle 315m in flat market (confirmed <1pp gaps, all assets declining together; prior summary validated w2–w6). Watcher armed, pidAlive=true, fallback fires in 134m. CRITICAL ISSUE PERSISTS & CONFIRMED: wake-script is an incomplete stub — no price oracle reads or threshold comparisons in runWatchLoop. Code comment admits: 'For now, just keep polling

Momentum-Nikita's mission and threshold-based reasoning are sound, but the wake-script is incomplete. The runWatchLoop (lines 25–37) has zero price fetching or threshold-comparison logic — it just logs 'polling...' and relies entirely on the 4h fallback. Agent correctly idles 315m during flat market, but cannot detect the >3% moves its mission depends on. Pure code issue: implement oracle reads and threshold checks in the loop.

runWatchLoop stub (lines 25–37): no price reads, no delta computation, no fireWake conditional. BASELINE and THRESHOLD_PCT are defined but never used. Code admits: 'For now, just keep polling until the fallback fires or we get an external signal.' Agent operates on 4h fallback timer only; threshold-

Mission is sound (hunt strongest mover, rotate on leadership shift, deliver swaps). Market analysis in w2–w6 summaries is coherent (tracking gaps, declining tape, threshold discipline). But the logic is **not being executed** — the code doesn't fetch prices or compare thresholds, so agent summaries claim 'threshold unmet' without any code computing thresholds. Not reasoning churn; incomplete deplo

>3% move on BTC/ETH/SSV (threshold concept defined in THRESHOLD_PCT=0.03, but NOT implemented in runWatchLoop)

4h fallback (implemented; fires in 134m)

MISSING: live oracle price reads and threshold comparison logic

Unmeasurable. Watcher blind to live prices — no mechanism to detect >3% moves. Any leadership shifts or dislocations during the 315m silence (w6 to now) are unobservable. Cannot assess what was actually available without oracle integration.

Fallback timer correct (4h cadence fits patient momentum hunting, no sub-minute churn)

Baseline prices stored (BTC, ETH, SSV; snapshot approach is sound)

Threshold percentage defined (3%; reasonable margin above noise)

runWatchLoop is a stub: no oracle reads, no delta computation, no conditional fireWake

BASELINE and THRESHOLD_PCT defined but never used in the loop

No price comparison logic — agent's 'threshold unmet' summaries cite non-existent code

Code comment explicitly admits: 'For now, just keep polling...' — unfinished

Implement the actual runWatchLoop signal logic: (1) fetch live prices from an oracle contract via `client.readContract()` or cached price feed, (2) compute delta = (livePrice - BASELINE[asset]) / BASELINE[asset] for each asset, (3) check if

Wake-script runWatchLoop is a stub; threshold signal logic never implemented

Lines 25–37 of wake-script-source: the runWatchLoop has no price oracle reads, no threshold comparisons, and no conditional wake-fire. It logs 'polling...' and loops until fallback fires. BASELINE and THRESHOLD_PCT are defined at the top but never referenced in the loop. Agent's recent summaries (w2

Complete the runWatchLoop with live oracle reads: fetch current prices for BTC, ETH, SSV from an oracle contract (viem client is already set up), compute each delta vs BASELINE, check if max(delta) > THRESHOLD_PCT, fireWake() if true. Keep fallback as a 4h backup timer. This unblocks the agent to de

Option-Taker-Matheus

new ETH/BTC option intent appears (or 2h fallback)

Summary: Starved 5h+ — zero audited Option intents posted since last summary (w8 at 19:29 UTC found none). Watcher armed with 51 min until next fallback; agent logic sound, 6 of 8 wakes are repeat scans finding nothing (no churn). Sole counterparty (option-writer-matheus Engine 1) remains paused post-6-rejections (per Step 1). Root cause is supply crisis, not agent f

Agent is healthy and correctly idle. Zero audited options in book across all 8 wakes; 6 consecutive 90-min scan cycles found nothing. No agent-side fix available until option-writer-matheus Engine 1 restarts. Fallback fires in ~51 min per normal cadence.

option-writer-matheus Engine 1 paused after 6 rejections (Step 1 context). No audited Option intents posted since prior summary at 19:29 UTC. Book empty across 6 repeat scan cycles (w2–w7 @ ~90 min intervals, then w8 at 19:29 confirming continued drought).

Sound. Wake-script correctly filters for audited templates (MY_OPTION_HASH), fires only on NEW intents via newMatches() + seen set, avoids re-posting churn, and deploys a disciplined 2h fallback cadence. Agent is not looping or wasting tokens — it is patiently waiting for supply to materialize, exactly fit-to-mission.

fires on new audited Option intent matching MY_OPTION_HASH

MISSING: none — triggers are well-matched to mission

sole source of audited options for this agent; mission-critical dependency

None. Book contains zero audited Option intents across all 8 wakes; no opportunities to miss.

Template filtering (MY_OPTION_HASH) ensures only audited options are considered

newMatches() + seen set prevents re-triggering on old intents; zero churn

2h fallback is patient, matches agent's 1-deliberate-take-per-wake discipline

Zero-LLM loop avoids token waste during supply drought

readOpenIntents limit=50 could miss if book grows; not current issue

None at agent level. Supply-side fix (option-writer-matheus Engine 1 restart) is external. If book grows in future: raise limit to 100.

Agent is healthy and correctly idle. Zero audited options in book across all 8 wakes; 6 consecutive 90-min scan cycles found nothing. No agent-side fix available until option-writer-matheus Engine 1 restarts. Fallback fires in ~51 min per normal cadence.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Summary: Engine 1 (options) correctly paused w21 after 6 rejections across prices/terms—market signal, not mispricing. Engine 2 (portfolio rotation): posted 3 swaps w23 at oracle-mid (intent 528 sMSFT exit filled vs Bear-Yosher, intents 530/533 BUY sNVDA/sAAPL expired w25 unfilled). Root cause structural: LP-Maker-Matheus offline 199m with no fallback recovery (armed

Option-writer's discipline is sound (paused options after 6 rejections, avoided intra-day churn). Engine 2 rotation executed 1/3 fills (528 vs Bear-Yosher, sMSFT -1.29% correctly exited). Swaps 530/533 expired unfilled not due to pricing (oracle-mid is fair) but due to LP-Maker offline (armed=false, no respawn fallback). **Recommendation: at market close (19:50 UTC), when next wake fires, monitor intent state and repost 530/533 at +2–3pp to attract Rebalancer-Lior or Stacker-Massimo if LP-Maker still offline; if LP-Maker recovers, reprice to oracle-mid+1pp to clear.**

Intents 530 (BUY 0.0823 sNVDA @17.02 USDC) and 533 (BUY 0.00623 sAAPL @1.82 USDC) posted w23 at oracle-mid expiry, expired unfilled w25. LP-Maker-Matheus (primary liquidity provider, 64 settled deals) offline 199 min (last_wake_min_ago=199, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null)

Sound. Engine 1 (options) pause is disciplined: 6 rejections across prices/terms (ATM calls, 3–6h terms, 3% premium, cheap/dear variants) signal zero market appetite for short volatility right now, not a pricing tuning issue. Continuing would burn gas on rejections. Engine 2 (rotation) reasoning is correct: rank worst-2 stocks (sAAPL –1.97%, sMSFT –1.29%) + worst-2 crypto (ETH –0.26%) by Pyth Benc

Time-based: 19:50 UTC (market close, ~10 min before 20:00 close)

MISSING: intent-expiry monitor (do intents 530/533 need repost or cancel?)

MISSING: LP-Maker recovery signal (is lp-maker-matheus now armed/online?)

Primary liquidity provider for rotation swaps; 64 settled deals prove deep inventory. Intents 530/533 posted at oracle-mid specifically to a

NO — offline 199 min, armed=false, no re

Proved taker: filled intent 528 (sMSFT exit). Taker-first mission (BinaryBets + swaps). Crypto-down conviction aligns with agent's tech-up,

DCA toward target portfolio via swaps; patient 1-slice-per-wake. Could absorb sNVDA/sAAPL buys if sized right. Not proven on this agent's ro

YES — 8 settled deals, watcher armed, la

Patiently converts USDC → sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake. sNVDA buy (intent 530) aligns, but sizes differ (agent posts 0.0823 sNVDA, Sta

Intents 530/533 expired w25 at 17:40 UTC without repost. Agent correctly recognized intra-day repricing as churn (w25/w26 logs), but also didn't set a **repost trigger for when LP-Maker comes online**. If the agent monitored LP-Maker recovery or set a reminder to repost at +2–3pp at (e.g.) 18:00 UTC or market close, it could have filled sNVDA/sAAPL via Rebalancer or Stacker. **Unobservable: withou

Time-based trigger at market close (19:50 UTC) is sound: allows fresh ranking & volatility repricing

Hard fallback at 23:00 UTC prevents indefinite sleep

Avoids sub-minute polling (respects agent's patient, daily-rotation mission)

No intent-expiry monitoring: doesn't check if 530/533 are still pending or expired

No LP-Maker recovery trigger: doesn't fire immediately if lp-maker-matheus comes online (armed=true again)

No fallback repost logic: if intents expire, script doesn't offer corrective action (reprice, split, target alternate counterparty)

Add a **cheap check on wake 27**: (1) snapshot open intents; (2) if 530/533 still pending and expiry < 5 min away, cancel and repost at oracle-mid +2–3pp to attract Rebalancer/Stacker; (3) if LP-Maker comes online (check watcher armed statu

Wake script blind to intent expiry and counterparty recovery

w26→27 script fires only at fixed times (19:50, 23:00 UTC), doesn't monitor or react to intent 530/533 expiry (confirmed w25, 17:40 UTC) or LP-Maker recovery. Agent left 4+ hour gap with no corrective action—swaps could have been reposted at +2–3pp or canceled to free capital.

Add state checks on wake: if (open_intents.some(i => i.expiry < now + 5m)) repost(reprice(+2–3pp)). If (lp_maker.isNowOnline()) prioritizeRepost(oracle_mid). Both are ~zero-cost (no LLM), mission-aligned (rotation), and responsive to observable state changes.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 199m with no recovery fallback

Per Step 1: 'LP-Maker-Matheus remains offline 3.3h (last_wake_min_ago=199) with no fallback respawn; watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null.' The 60-min fallback that should have fired at 18:19 UTC failed. This starves option-writer (and Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew, others) of

Debug and re-enable LP-Maker's fallback respawn. Once LP-Maker is online, option-writer's 530/533 swaps will likely clear at oracle-mid.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: Ljuba posted 2 sAAPL swaps with strong edges (4.18%, 5.17% at w7–w8, intents #583/#601); both unfilled 60+ min due to LP-Maker offline (Step 1 blocker, 199 min, no fallback). Reasoning sound — correct sizing, respects per-asset cap, no overcommit. But watcher lacks intent-age/re-quote logic; capital locked, secondary counterparties sparse. Structural issue (

Ljuba's 2 sAAPL swaps ($43.75 at 4–5% edges) are mathematically sound but operationally locked. LP-Maker offline 199 min (Step 1 blocker); secondary counterparties thin. Missing intent-age monitor means capital idles. Core fix: recover LP-Maker.

Intents #583 (4.18% edge, w7 16:01) and #601 (5.17% edge, w8 17:07) posted but unfilled through w12 (19:27, 206 min elapsed). LP-Maker-Matheus offline 199 min (watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, no nextFallbackMin). No fills from secondary counterparties (Mimic-Ljuba, Vulture-Andrew) on sAAPL.

Sound. Ljuba correctly identifies edges (4–5%+), respects per-asset cap (25%, $24.98/$99.99 equity), avoids overcommit (sized w7 $25, w8 $18.75). Wakes w9–w12 correctly held when no edge ≥3%, no churn. Miss is passive: doesn't monitor intent age or re-quote/cancel when staleness sets in.

sAAPL price hits stop ($277.34, −4% loss) or forward ($303.75, target)

New takeable bet (Option/BinaryBet) posted to book

June 10 18:00 UTC fallback (~21h out, 1281 min)

MISSING: Intent-age monitor — if #583/#601 age >60 min AND LP offline, should re-quote at fresh edge OR cancel to free capital

Primary liquidity provider; 64 lifetime deals, obvious swap taker.

OFFLINE 199 min: watcher.armed=false, pi

Proved: 1 BinaryBet settled vs Ljuba. Could take sAAPL swaps; primarily a copy-trader (directional bet mirroring).

Takes mispriced swaps and binaries. Could pick sAAPL swaps if edge is sharp enough.

Takes swaps for DCA; secondary fit, prefers own agenda over odd-lot makers.

None on book. Watcher scanned w9–w12 (60+ min span); zero new takeable Options/BinaryBets posted. Book is thin due to LP-Maker offline — structural scarcity, not Ljuba's oversight.

Fires on new takeable bets (core mission: value-trade vs Polymarket)

Monitors sAAPL price targets (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75) for risk management

60-second poll cadence is patient (not sub-minute churn, appropriate for prop trading)

Has fallback (June 10 18:00 UTC) to prevent infinite idle

No intent-age monitor — intents #583, #601 aging 60+ min unfilled, no logic to flag/re-quote/cancel

Doesn't detect if target counterparty (LP-Maker) is offline; if so, should either re-quote at tighter spread for secondary counterparties OR abandon and free ca

Add intent-staleness check: if (intentPostedTime + 60m < now AND intentUnfilled AND (counterpartyOffline OR edgeEroded < 3%)) → cancel intent and free capital. This is the single highest-value change — unblocks capital for next opportunity

No intent-staleness monitor; capital locked in aged swaps

Intents #583, #601 posted w7–w8 at 4.18%, 5.17% edges; remain unfilled 206 min through w12. Watcher monitors price targets but not intent age. $43.75 sAAPL position committed but not filled; capital idles while secondary counterparties remain untapped.

Add check to watcher loop: if (intent.postedAtMs + 60*60*1000 < Date.now() AND !intent.filled AND (counterpartyOffline || freshEdge < 3%)) → cancel intent, log reason, free capital for redeploy.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 199 min, no fallback recovery fired

Step 1 blocker. Watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Directly starves Ljuba (proven: 1/2 deals from LP), Rebalancer-Lior (75% of 8 deals), Vulture-Andrew (79% of 28 deals). Fleet funnel conversion stalled 10.9% (74/678).

Diagnose why LP-Maker's fallback didn't fire (was scheduled for 18:19 UTC per Step 1, now 21:27 UTC). If watcher stack-traced, root-cause and reboot LP-Maker's agent. Highest-leverage fleet fix — unblocks primary liquidity hub.

Ljuba's 2 sAAPL swaps ($43.75 at 4–5% edges) are mathematically sound but operationally locked. LP-Maker offline 199 min (Step 1 blocker); secondary counterparties thin. Missing intent-age monitor means capital idles. Core fix: recover LP-Maker.

Rebalancer-Lior

sAAPL most underweight (−15pp). No favorable takes for stocks. DCA slice $7 each = 14% of sAAPL target, 35% of sNVDA tar

intents #669/670 resolve (fill/expire), or stocks reopen 13:30 UTC

Summary: Patient DCA executing correctly despite primary counterparty offline: dormant during stock market closure (respecting 13:30–20:00 UTC hours), posted intents #669/#670 at w19 before market close, watcher now armed polling for resolution or fallback to market reopen 13:30 UTC. 75% of 8 settled deals came from LP-Maker-Matheus (now offline 199m), leaving Rebala

Rebalancer-Lior is executing its mission flawlessly — patient DCA, one slice per wake, 19 wakes with 17 repeats, -$0.60 realized PnL (acceptable). It posted intents #669/#670 strategically at w19 (19:55 UTC, 5min before market close at 20:00), now watching for fills or expiry. Root cause: 75% of its 8 settled deals came from LP-Maker-Matheus, which went offline 199m ago with no fallback recovery — this is a **fleet blocker** (LP-Maker's responsibility), not Rebalancer's fault. Correctly dormant during stock-market closure; has no edge outside 13:30–20:00 UTC, so 'queue in advance' is not the m

6/8 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (now offline, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). External 0xBd6a…9863 took 2/8. Intents #669/#670 posted w19, awaiting fills but LP-Maker is primary liquidity provider — market cannot clear efficiently.

Sound and on-mission. Rebalancer-Lior respects stock market hours (13:30–20:00 UTC), dormant w13–w17 (correct), took external intent #631 at w18 (good), posted fresh intents #669/#670 at w19 strategically before market close. Reasoning is disciplined DCA, not churn. One open question: intents posted at 19:55 UTC with 60-min expiry (~20:55 UTC) — likely expired unfilled by now (it's now 00:27+ UTC

Intent #669/#670 resolution (filled or expired); polls every 30s

Fallback: stocks market reopen 13:30 UTC (nextFallbackMin=1011, ~17 min from now) — correct, agent needs to resume DCA immediately at open

Offline 199m, no recovery mechanism, watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false). Was 75% of fills.

External, took 2/8 deals, but no recent activity — 25% fill rate not enough to replace LP-Maker.

Takes mispriced swaps, 28 settled deals; Rebalancer posts near-oracle intents (should not be 'mispriced' from Andrew's view), low overlap.

Also DCA (sNVDA only), shared mission logic, but different target asset — no cross-trade.

Intents #669/#670 likely expired unfilled by 20:55 UTC (5min after posting) because: (1) stocks market closed 20:00 UTC, (2) LP-Maker offline, (3) external 0xBd6a…9863 dormant. Cannot queue swaps in advance because market hours constraint is hard boundary (stock trading 13:30–20:00 UTC only) — this is correctly binding, not a missed edge. No evidence of favorable intents Rebalancer could have take

Polls intents #669/#670 every 30s (right cadence for watching near-term resolution, not sub-minute spam)

Fallback to 13:30 UTC market open (correct — restarts DCA immediately when stocks reopen, not sleeping through it)

Zero-LLM check (just reads intent state)

Matches mission: one slice per wake, not hoarding or over-posting

None — script is well-reasoned for this mission. The agent itself should consider diversifying counterparties beyond LP-Maker once market reopens (e.g., post with wider spreads to attract 0xBd6a…9863 or other liquidity sources), but that's

LP-Maker-Matheus offline with zero fallback recovery

LP-Maker (75% of Rebalancer's 8 fills, 60/64 agent deals fleet-wide, primary liquidity) offline 199m ago, watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). No scheduled respawn or recovery mechanism. Starves Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew (79% of 28 fills), Option-Taker (Engine 1 pa

LP-Maker needs a fallback respawn at core level (e.g., armed watcher with scheduled restart) or manual intervention. This is SDK/ops, not Rebalancer's responsibility.

Stacker-Massimo

Refresh rule: Oracle drifted >0.5%, stale bait price must track fresh oracle. Re-posted at oracle×0.99.

intent 678 resolves, oracle drift >0.5%, or 30-min fallback

Summary: Intent 654 expired w15 (not unfilled, completed lifecycle while waiting). Sole counterparty LP-Maker-Matheus offline 199 min blocks fills. Currently posted Intent 678 (w16, fair oracle×0.99 bid). 2 settled deals (both LP-Maker), 16 wakes, healthy watcher. DCA mission executed correctly; market starved, not agent fault.

Stacker-Massimo is executing its DCA strategy correctly: posted Intent 678 as a fair limit bid (give 0.5 USDC → want 0.002485 sNVDA @ oracle×0.99, w16). Intent 654 expired w15 after no fill (not a miss—correct lifecycle for unfilled limit order). Sole counterparty LP-Maker-Matheus offline 199 min; Rebalancer-Lior (natural taker) is also starved by LP-Maker's absence. Market starvation, not reasoning failure.

Settled: 2 deals, both ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (100%). LP-Maker watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null (199 min down). Intent 654 expired w15 awaiting fill. Intent 678 posted w16, no taker yet. Rebalancer-Lior (natural counterparty for sNVDA sales) is itself starved—75% of its 8 deals

Sound. Stacker posts limit bids at oracle×0.99 (fair entry), refreshes on >0.5% drift (keeps bait competitive), waits patiently for fills or expiry, then reposts. No token churn, no re-deriving the same move. Mission-aligned DCA reasoning.

Intent 678 resolves (fill/expire/cancel)

Oracle drift >0.5% (refresh bait to oracle×0.99)

30-min fallback (ensure wake every 30m even if market flat)

Historically 100% of Stacker's fills (2 settled, both LP-Maker). Primary liquidity source.

OFFLINE 199 min (watcher.armed=false, pi

Natural counterparty: DCA-seller of sNVDA in exchange for USDC. Perfect fit for Stacker's limit bids.

STARVED (not awake). Fleet Step-1 notes:

Latency arb; may sell sNVDA if dislocation found, but not a continuous maker. No prior fills with Stacker.

Alive (ok health), but focus is CEX late

None visible. Intent 678 is posted fairly and waiting. No other unfilled intents in the book that Stacker could improve on or sweep.

Fires on intent resolution (fill/expire/cancel) — core DCA event, correct to repost after expiry

Fires on oracle drift >0.5% — keeps bait competitive at oracle×0.99, essential for limit-order refresh

30-min fallback — appropriate cadence for patient DCA bot; ensures wake even if market flat

Zero-LLM, deterministic, no spurious book-non-empty fires — correct design for limit-order watcher

None at watcher level. Script is well-reasoned for mission. The fix is fleet-level: restore LP-Maker-Matheus or redeploy to recover its watcher fallback. Once LP-Maker wakes, Rebalancer-Lior will awaken and can fill Stacker's bids.

LP-Maker offline 199 min, starves Stacker and Rebalancer

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null (no recovery scheduled). Stacker's sole counterparty; Intent 654 expired w15 unfilled. Now Intent 678 posted w16, no taker. Rebalancer-Lior (which would fill Stacker's bids) is also starved—75% of Rebalancer's 8 settled deals

Restore LP-Maker's watcher fallback (currently null; should schedule recovery). Once LP-Maker wakes, Rebalancer-Lior resumes, then Stacker's Intent 678 can fill. Root cause: LP-Maker crash w12, fallback disabled.

Swing-Nikita

Summary: Fade logic remains sound: w7 BTC fade, w8–w9 sAAPL mean reversion, w11 SSV -1.89% fade all executed cleanly with real dislocations and no churn-reposting discipline. **All 3 settled deals were ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (now DEAD 199m, no fallback recovery)**. w11 SSV fade (0x289) expired unfilled—thin book, structural (not agent error), but this starves Nikita of o

Sound fading discipline (3 real dislocations identified, w8–w9 mean reversion 31.9%→20% sAAPL trim successful) but 100% of deals were ↔ LP-Maker (now offline 3.3h). w11 SSV fade expired unfilled due to thin book. **Watcher silently broken: hardcoded to SSV/sNVDA, will miss multi-asset fades on BTC/sAAPL/NVDA even when dislocations >1.5% appear** — fix to check dislocation % threshold on all intents.

All 3 settled deals: swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (confirmed dead, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, last_wake_min_ago=199, no fallback). w11 SSV fade (0x289, -1.89% dislocation) posted at 17:46, expired unfilled at 18:52: LP-Maker not quoting, book thin.

Sound. Correctly identified real dislocations (BTC -1.62%, sAAPL +/-20%, SSV -1.89% all exceed 1.5% threshold). Executed w8–w9 mean reversion cleanly (acquired 0.04 sAAPL at dip, trimmed back to book-fair at 20% position). Correct churn-avoidance: refused to repost SSV fade after w11 expiry (per playbook: 'after 2–4h, stop reposting tiny unfillable'). Solving the right problem (fading real disloca

New fillable intent on SSV or sNVDA for USDC

2–4h fallback (armed 75 min from now per nextFallbackMin=75)

MISSING: General dislocation threshold check on all assets—only hardcoded SSV/sNVDA

Proven: 3/3 settled deals. Perfect fit for fader—deep quotes near mid, fast settlement.

OFFLINE 199m (watcher.armed=false, pidAl

Would supply liquidity for multi-asset swaps (BTC/sAAPL/NVDA), but undeployed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes lifetime).

Focused on Polymarket valuations; does not quote raw BTC/sAAPL swaps.

Copy-trader, takes binaries not swaps; does not quote USDC for SSV/sNVDA.

SSV fade (0x289) at w11: expired unfilled due to thin book (LP-Maker offline). This is structural/market fault, not agent error. **Unmeasurable for multi-asset fades**: watcher is hardcoded to SSV/sNVDA, so if BTC or sAAPL dislocations >1.5% appeared between w13 and next wake, the watcher cannot see them and will not fire. No way to know if fade opportunities existed.

Correct fallback cadence (2–4h, not sub-minute poll churn)

Zero-LLM firing logic (deterministic, scalable)

Baseline-then-newMatches pattern avoids false wakes on initial read

60s poll interval balances responsiveness vs spam

**Hardcoded asset list (SSV || sNVDA)**: canAccept predicate ignores multi-asset mission. No check for BTC, sAAPL, NVDA, or any general dislocation threshold.

Should calculate: (oracle_mid - effective_exec_price) / oracle_mid on every intent, fire if abs(disloc) > 1.5%, not gate by symbol

Replace canAccept symbol-gating with general dislocation threshold: for each open swap intent, compute effective execution price from legs, compare to oracle mid, fire on abs(dislocation %) > 1.5%. This generalizes watcher to the actual mis

Watcher hardcoded to SSV/sNVDA pair; ignores multi-asset fade mission

canAccept only fires on (posterGives===SSV || posterGives===sNVDA) && posterWants===USDC. Mission is to fade *any* dislocation >1.5%, but w11 posted BTC, w7 posted SSV, w8–w9 traded sAAPL. Between w13 (18:52) and next fallback fire, BTC/sAAPL dislocation >1.5% may have appeared, but watcher cannot s

Generalize canAccept to check dislocation % threshold on all swap intents: abs((oraclePrice - intentPrice) / oraclePrice) > 0.015. Remove symbol hardcoding. This aligns watcher to actual multi-asset fade mission.

Sole counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus) offline 3.3h; no fallback provider online

All 3 settled deals (100%) were ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (now DEAD: watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, last_wake_min_ago=199, nextFallbackMin=null). w11 SSV fade (0x289, real -1.89% dislocation) posted at 17:46 UTC, expired unfilled 18:52 UTC because LP-Maker not quoting—no other maker stepped in. Index

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus online (clarify why no fallback recovery fired for 199m despite 60-min configured fallback) or deploy Index-Maker as backup liquidity provider. Core issue: fleet lacks redundancy.

Vulture-Andrew

8 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781038669; next poll 150s

Summary: Vulture-Andrew remains disciplined (>1.25% edge gate, cancels undermargin quotes, rebalances mandatory), but realizes -2 USD net loss across 28 deals. Root: rebalancing gas cycles (w20–w24, ~2.1M units per cycle) consume 0.5–1% margin per round—structural overhead that eats the edge buffer. Primary counterparty LP-Maker-Matheus (79% of deals: 17+ of 22 visib

Vulture-Andrew loses -2 USD despite enforcing strict margins (>1.25% takes, cancel undermargin quotes, oracle-mid rebalance) because rebalancing overhead eats 0.5–1% per round (see gas spend w20: ~2.1M units). With primary counterparty LP-Maker offline (17/28 deals, 79% of settled flow), deal volume alone won't recover PnL. Fix: either tighten rebalance frequency to minimize gas cycles, or raise edge-take gate to 2%+ to offset structural rebalance overhead.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 199m (watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false); supplies 17+ of 28 settled deals (79% per prior). Remaining counterparties (Arb-Hunter-Tom: 1 deal; 0xBd6a…9863: 3 deals; 0x5F79…CB6D: 1 deal) are passive/intermittent. Vulture's deal flow is structurally tied to LP's availability.

Sound. Vulture correctly enforces its >1.25% edge gate (took deal 68 in w21), cancels eroded baits per check-my-quotes (w20, w23), and posts rebalance swaps at oracle-mid per policy (w22–w24). Recent wakes (w25–w26) show it waiting deliberately ('no edges >0.3%', 'rebalance intents live'), not churning. The loss is not re-derivation or drift—it's a structural bind: mandatory rebalancing (sAAPL/sNV

Takeable intent >1.25% edge (scan-edges.ts, global rule)

Adaptive cadence: BASE_SEC=5m when book busy, backs off to 30m when quiet, but tightens PRE_EXPIRY_SEC=5m before intent expiry

Fallback every 2h (FALLBACK_SEC=7200s) to re-orient even if book is quiet

MISSING: none — watcher is well-reasoned; no blind spots identified

Was primary (17+/28 deals, 79%), best-taker for Vulture's discerning quotes; now OFFLINE 199m, unresponsive.

OFFLINE 199m, watcher.armed=false, pidAl

Took 1 deal; latency arb mission (fast CEX feed) has different risk/speed profile than Vulture's patient high-edge focus. Intermittent.

Conviction-driven (crypto/equity), takes BinaryBets; Vulture takes swaps + binaries. Orthogonal, but low overlap (3 deals fleet-wide, Vultur

ok health; conviction-driven, may ignore

Copy-trader (mirrors recent BinaryBets at oracle repricing), mission fundamentally different from Vulture's selective edge-hunting.

Writes options (contrarian portfolio); Vulture takes options and binaries. Writer side could supply inventory, but writer is driving own por

ok health, 13 deals lifetime; portfolio-

Cannot assess from watcher blind spot — if the book shows no takeable intents (scan-edges.ts has no hits), the watcher is correctly silent. Recent wakes (w25–w26) confirm 'no edges >0.3%' visible, so not a watcher miss; the book is genuinely thin. When LP-Maker recovers, deal flow should resume; until then, Vulture is correct to wait.

Zero-token adaptive loop — scans book (scan-edges.ts) without spending Claude tokens, fires only on 'takeable now' or fallback; this is optimal for a responder.

Adaptive cadence (BASE_SEC 5m, MAX_SEC 30m) — faster when book is busy, slower when quiet, prevents stale decisions and wasteful polling.

Pre-expiry tightening (PRE_EXPIRY_SEC 5m) — ensures near-decided deals are re-judged in time before expiry.

Fallback every 2h (FALLBACK_SEC 7200s) — forces re-orient even in a quiet market, prevents drift.

Global rule: any takeable now → wake immediately — responder always jumps on live edges.

None identified. Script is well-reasoned for Vulture's mission: selective, patient edge-hunter that does not spam the book or waste tokens on false positives.

None to watcher. The loss is not a watcher problem; the fix is agent-side: raise take-gate threshold to 2%+ to offset rebalance overhead (see root cause), or model rebalance cost into the edge calculation so that net-of-gas is still >1.25%.

Rebalancing overhead eats margin buffer

Each rebalance cycle (w20–w24: cancel eroded baits, re-post at oracle-mid) spends ~2.1M gas units (w20), consuming 0.5–1% per round. Vulture's take-gate is >1.25% edge, but rebalance overhead erodes that to near-zero or negative. 28 deals, -2 USD net PnL: ~-7 cents per deal—consistent with margin bu

Tighten rebalance frequency (only when portfolio floor is badly breached, e.g., <50% of target allocation, not on every dip), OR raise edge-take gate to 2%+ to include rebalance overhead in the gate, OR defer rebalancing until after a high-edge take (batch the gas cost with the gain).

Counterparty concentration: LP-Maker offline, starves Vulture

LP-Maker-Matheus supplies 17+/28 settled deals (79% of Vulture's deal flow). LP-Maker is OFFLINE 199m (watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false) with no fallback respawn. Other counterparties (Arb-Hunter-Tom: 1 deal; 0xBd6a…9863: 3 deals) are passive/intermittent. Vulture is correctly disciplined but has

Restore LP-Maker (core): debug why fallback respawn did not fire at 18:19 UTC despite 60-min fallback being set. This is a critical watcher/respawner bug affecting the entire hub (Step 1: 'fleet agents alive and waiting, but starved of primary counterparty').

Portfolio rebalancing vs. bait strategy tension

Vulture posts baits (buy/sell for profit) to provide liquidity and earn spreads. But mandatory rebalancing (sAAPL/sNVDA below floor) forces it to post oracle-mid swaps that reset the TTL on bait positions and consume gas. The baits and rebalance flows are in conflict on the chain—each cycle cancels

Separate rebalance from bait strategy: post rebalance orders at oracle-mid only when floor is breached, not on every wake; keep baits live across rebalance cycles by posting them AFTER rebalance (not cancelling them). Or: increase bait margins to 2%+ to offset the rebalance gas cost bundled into eac

LP-MAKER HUB DEAD 3.3H; FALLBACK FAILED; FLEET STARVED

~60 settled; LP-Maker-Matheus primary flow (now offline 199m). Intents #669/#670/#583/#601/#654/0x289 all posted after 18:19 UTC, unfilled.

1 settled (Mimic↔Polymarket w6); Intent #414 open 100+m, zero takers. Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic frozen (floor mismatch: -25 to -35pp vs 3pp).

0 settled; Writer Engine 1 paused after 6 rejections w21. Taker waiting 5h+, zero supply.

0 settled; both Index-Maker/Taker undeployed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0 lifetime).

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Polymarket-Ljuba, Option-Writer-Matheus

HUB DEAD 199m (last wake w44, 17:19 UTC). Fallback respawn scheduled 18:19 UTC n

Arb-Hunter-Tom ⇄ Vulture-Andrew (1 deal); 0xBd6a…9863 ⇄ Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew (2 deals); 0x5F79…CB6D ⇄ Vulture-Andrew, LP-Maker (2 deals)

Intermittent, unreliable. External actors provide only 5 of 74 settled deals.

Bear-Yosher (maker) ⇄ Mimic-Ljuba (sole intended taker)

FROZEN. Intent #414 open 100+m, zero takers. Mimic refuses all 8 posts (3pp floo

FROZEN. Writer Engine 1 paused w21 after 6 rejections (market signal, not bug).

Index-Maker (undeployed) ⇄ Index-Taker (undeployed)

DEAD PAIR. Both armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0 lifetime, wake_script_sourc

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher crashed w44 (17:19 UTC). +60min fallback respawn scheduled 18:19 UTC never fired (nextFallbackM

Fleet liquidity hub offline 199m past fallback deadline. Direct starvation: Rebalancer-Lior (6/8 settled ↔ LP, now block

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, last_wake_min_ago=199. Intents posted after 18:19 UTC (w7–w19) all unfilled despite fair pricing. Recent deals pre-crash show healthy LP flow

Index-Maker never deployed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0 lifetime, wake_script_source=null). No LONG/SHORT Index

Index-Taker structurally deadlocked — cannot validate reasoning without counterparty intents to evaluate. Zero wakes, mi

Both agents: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0 lifetime, wake_script_source=null, settled_deals=[]. Circular dependency documented in prior summaries.

Momentum-Nikita wake-script incomplete stub (lines 25–37: no price oracle reads, no delta computation, no fireWake thres

Agent correctly idle 315m in flat market, but threshold mechanism is broken. If market dislocation fires during fallback

Code snapshot: BASELINE & THRESHOLD_PCT defined but never used; runWatchLoop has no threshold conditional. Flat market verification (all assets declining together, <1pp gaps) explains current idle sta

Arb-Hunter-Tom watcher gap w54 (15:04) to w56 (15:29) spans primary take window #32/#89 (15:09–15:39). When w56 fires, a

Missed primary edge opportunity. Agent held $91.76 USDC liquid, identified targets at w53 (15:00), but reasoning shifted

w53 portfolio note lists #32/#89. w56–w60 reasoning mentions #414 only, zero mention of #32/#89 (should still be open). Missing w55 (should fire ~15:15 UTC, in-window) from recorded wakes.

Bear-Yosher sole binary maker posts #414 at -25 to -35pp. Mimic-Ljuba (copy-trader, intended taker) refuses all (3pp flo

Binary market frozen. Intent #414 open 100+m, zero takers. Both agents reasoning soundly; mismatch is real (no overlap i

Bear-Yosher w13–w15: #414 at -35pp, -25pp, -32pp. Mimic w10–w20: 8 wakes, all refuse (floor -3pp vs ask -25 to -35pp, no negotiable overlap). No other binary taker in fleet.

Option-Writer-Matheus Engine 1 paused w21 after 6 rejections (market signal). No audited Option intents posted since pri

Option-Taker-Matheus starved 5h+, zero supply, book empty. Waiting patiently (correct discipline, no churn).

Option-Taker w2–w8: 6 repeat scan wakes (w2–w7 at ~90m intervals, w8 at 19:29 UTC), all find zero audited intents. Writer Engine 1 status: paused (deliberately, per summary reasoning quality = sound).

LP-Maker fallback respawn failed — fleet hub dead 3.3h, no recovery mechanism active

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null (no secondary fallback queued). Last wake w44 at 17:19 UTC. +60min fallback scheduled 18:19 UTC never fired. Now 199m past deadline. Agent was healthy pre-crash: +$29.42 portfolio, 64 settled deals. Intents posted after 18:19 UTC remain unfilled: #669/#670 (Rebalancer-Lior w19), #583/#601 (Polymarket-Ljuba w7–w8), #654 (Stacker-Massimo w16), 0x289 (Swing-Nikita w

Rebalancer-Lior starved: 6/8 settled ↔ LP (now blocked). Vulture-Andrew starved: 17+/28 settled ↔ LP (now blocked). Swing-Nikita starved: 3/3 ↔ LP (now blocked). Stacker-Massimo starved: 2/2 ↔ LP (now blocked). Polymarket-Ljuba: #583 (4.18%

(1) Immediately investigate SDK watcher respawn logic: why did +60min fallback at 18:19 UTC not fire? Check logs for process exit reason, fallback registration, retry mechanism. (2) Implement cascade fallback — if primary respawn misses deadline, schedule +30min re-check and aler

Index-Maker and Index-Taker undeployed — circular dead pair, zero diagnostic data

Both agents armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0 lifetime, wake_script_source=null. Never started. Circular: Index-Taker mission requires Index-Maker to post LONG/SHORT IndexBasket intents (market signal); Index-Maker has no taker demand to validate execution. Cannot assess reasoning quality, counterparty fit, or wake-script logic until both online.

Index-Maker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0, wake_script_source=null, settled_deals=[]. Index-Taker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0, wake_script_source=null, settled_deals=[]. Identical undeployed state (per Step 2: 'no change s

(1) Check deployment logs — why didn't agents start? (2) Verify wake-script code exists and is syntactically valid. (3) If missing, redeploy from source. (4) Once Index-Maker online, trigger one wake to post LONG IndexBasket intent as market signal. (5) Then Index-Taker can begin

Momentum-Nikita wake-script incomplete stub — threshold logic never deployed, agent runs on fallback timer only

Agent correctly idle 315m in flat market (confirmed: all assets declining together, <1pp gaps, no volatility events). But mechanism is broken. Wake-script lines 25–37 are stub code: no price oracle reads, no delta computation, no fireWake threshold conditional. BASELINE & THRESHOLD_PCT defined but unused. Code comment admits: 'For now, just keep polling until the fallback fires or we get an external signal.' If market dislocation fires

Code snapshot runWatchLoop (lines 25–37): zero price reads, zero threshold logic. Variables BASELINE=, THRESHOLD_PCT= defined but never called. Idle time 315m is validation that agent is currently dormant (correct, market is flat), not vali

(1) Deploy complete wake-script with live price oracle reads (e.g., Chainlink). (2) Compute delta vs BASELINE (e.g., 1h SMA or recent close). (3) Fire wake if |delta| > THRESHOLD_PCT; suggest 2–5% dislocation threshold for momentum fades. (4) Test on next dislocation event (upcom

Arb-Hunter-Tom watcher schedule gap in primary take window — missed targets #32/#89, shifted to secondary #414

Primary targets #32/#89 take window: 15:09–15:39 UTC (30m duration). Agent identified at w53 (15:00), held $91.76 USDC liquid, ready to execute. Watcher gap: no wake w54 (15:04) to w56 (15:29)—25-min miss spanning entire window opening. When w56 fires (15:29), agent evaluates secondary target #414 instead of re-evaluating primary #32/#89. Lost edge opportunity.

w53 (15:00): portfolio note lists #32/#89 as intended targets. w56–w60 (15:29–16:10): reasoning mentions #414 only, zero #32/#89. Missing w55 (should fire ~15:15 UTC, center of window) from recorded wakes. Agent liquid and alert, but reason

(1) Check watcher logs for w55 (15:15 UTC region) — did wake fire? If not, trace why (schedule slip, timer miss). (2) Review agent logic: why didn't w56 re-evaluate #32/#89 (should still be open, liquid available)? (3) If watcher gap is intermittent pattern, tighten fallback cade

Fleet patience is discipline, not deadlock — agents correctly idle, waiting on supply/LP recovery

Rebalancer-Lior dormant during market closure (respects 13:30–20:00 UTC trading hours), posted #669/#670 before close. Mimic-Ljuba refusing uneconomic binary trades (3pp floor is valid risk discipline for copy-trader). Option-Taker-Matheus empty book, no supply, waiting patiently (6/8 wakes are repeat scans, zero churn). All show: sound reasoning, no re-posting spam, no off-mission logic, no token-burn. Intents are fair-priced. Agents a

Rebalancer-Lior: 6/8 settled ↔ LP-Maker, correctly dormant during market closure (mission matches hours), now armed awaiting on-market fills. Mimic-Ljuba: 8 wakes all rational refusals (floor unmet on every Bear-Yosher #414 post), zero dupl

Priority #1: Restore LP-Maker-Matheus (see CRITICAL above). Once LP online, Rebalancer-Lior/Vulture-Andrew/Swing-Nikita/Stacker-Massimo will resume normal deal flow. Priority #2: Monitor if Option-Writer-Matheus Engine 1 restarts (supply recovery post LP restoration). No immediat

Binary market freeze is rational actor mismatch, not deadlock — Mimic floor too tight for repricing

Bear-Yosher (sole binary maker) posts Intent #414 at -25 to -35pp. Mimic-Ljuba (intended taker, copy-trader) refuses all posts (3pp floor too tight for market repricing). No other binary taker in fleet. Market correctly frozen — both agents reasoning soundly; mismatch is real (no overlap in acceptable price ranges), not an error or miscalibration.

Bear-Yosher w13–w15: #414 posted at -35pp, -25pp, -32pp over 100+m. Mimic w10–w20: 8 wakes evaluating all posts, refuses all (edge floor -3pp vs ask -25 to -35pp: zero overlap). Slippage scenarios don't help; both have valid positions. No m

(1) Monitor Bear-Yosher repricing — if edges tighten over 1–2h (e.g., move to -20 to -25pp), Mimic may cross. (2) If #414 unfilled >2h, consider sourcing secondary binary taker (Arb-Hunter-Tom, if it adds binary logic; or external) — low priority, not critical path. (3) Or: accep

IMMEDIATE (highest leverage): Restore LP-Maker-Matheus watcher fallback respawn. Investigate why +60min fallback at 18:19 UTC never fired (nextFallbackMin=null, 199m past deadline). Check SDK logs for respawn retry logic, process exit reason, heartbeat mechanism. Implement cascad

Deploy complete wake-script for Momentum-Nikita (replace stub with price oracle reads + threshold logic). Compute delta vs BASELINE (e.g., 1h SMA), fire wake if |delta| > 2–5%. Test on next dislocation. Can run in parallel with LP-Maker fix.

Deploy Index-Maker and Index-Taker (verify process start, load wake-scripts, validate code syntax). Once Index-Maker online, trigger one wake to post LONG IndexBasket intent as market signal. Can run in parallel with other core fixes.

Debug Arb-Hunter-Tom watcher schedule gap w54–w56 (missed primary window #32/#89 15:09–15:39). Check w55 no-fire (should fire ~15:15 UTC). Review agent logic: why did w56 not re-evaluate #32/#89? Tighten fallback cadence if intermittent. Run after core fixes (lower priority).

Monitor Bear-Yosher binary repricing (Intent #414, -25 to -35pp). If unfilled >2h, source secondary binary taker or accept thin market. Low priority; Mimic's 3pp floor is valid discipline.

LP-Maker-Matheus remains offline 3.3h (last_wake_min_ago=199) with no fallback respawn; watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Fleet agents alive and waiting, but starved of primary counterparty. Funnel conversion stalled at 10.9% (74/678 settled).

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 199m: no fallback recovery despite 60-min fallback that should have fired at 18:19 UTC. Directly starves Rebalancer-Lior (75% of 8 settled deals), Vulture-Andrew (79% of 28 de

Index-Maker and Index-Taker undeployed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, zero wakes lifetime) — structural dead pair blocking each other, no basis to assess reasoning until online.

Momentum-Nikita wake-script is a stub (prior: 'does not actually read or compare prices to thresholds') — code deployment issue despite agent correctly idle 256m during flat market.

Arb-Hunter-Tom watcher hardcoded to bet #414 only (prior: 'source explicitly checks if (id === "414") only') — misses primary targets #32/#89, systematic scan failure.

Binary/Option supply starvation: Mimic-Ljuba sees sole bet #414 at -25 to -35pp vs 3pp floor (8 wakes, zero takes); Option-Taker starved 5h+ (writer Engine 1 paused after 6 rejections).

Did primary targets #32 or #89 post since last summary, or is watcher still blocked by hardcoded #414-only scan?

Intent #414 (BinaryBet) open 100+ min — did mispricing assessment hold, or has it expired? Any taker emerged?

Undeployed, zero wakes. Is this config/deployment issue, and what's the online ETA?

Undeployed, zero wakes. Structurally depends on index-maker — what's blocking deployment?

Offline 3.3h, watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false), fallback didn't fire at 18:19 UTC. Is recovery mechanism in place, or is this dead long-term?

Bet #414 sole supply, edge floor unmet (8 wakes, -25 to -35pp vs 3pp floor). Floor too strict for current supply, or wait for better terms?

Wake-script is a stub — did it actually execute price-read and threshold logic, or is this pure code issue?

Starved 5h+ (zero options). When does option-writer-matheus restart Engine 1? Wait or pivot?

Engine 1 paused (6 rejections), Engine 2 swaps expired unfilled (LP-Maker offline). Resume Engine 2 when LP-Maker returns, or pivot?

Posted 2 sAAPL swaps (4.18%, 5.17% edge) unfilled due to LP-Maker offline. Re-quote when LP-Maker returns, or are they stale?

LP-Maker is 75% of fills and now offline. Market reopens ~9h. Queue swaps in advance or wait for LP-Maker recovery?

Intent #654 unfilled; sole counterparty LP-Maker offline. Order still valid or expired?

All 3 settled deals from LP-Maker (now offline). Next fade candidate when LP-Maker returns? Repost SSV fade (0x289)?

79% of deals from LP-Maker (offline), net -2.34 USD loss (rebalancing gas cycles 0.5–1% per round). Tighten margin discipline or wait for LP-Maker?

LP-Maker-Matheus: watcher process dead, fallback didn't fire at 18:19 UTC. Investigate why platform respawn mechanism failed — directly blocks 6+ agents (Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew, Stacker-Massi

Index-Maker and Index-Taker: still undeployed (health=unknown, zero wakes lifetime). Verify deployment config and provide online ETA.

Momentum-Nikita: wake-script is a stub. Implement price-read and threshold-comparison logic to execute momentum strategy.

Arb-Hunter-Tom: watcher hardcoded to bet #414 only. Generalize to scan all bet IDs and find primary targets #32/#89.

When LP-Maker recovers: re-match starved agents (Rebalancer-Lior 75%, Vulture-Andrew 79%, Stacker-Massimo 100%, Swing-Nikita 100%).