Arb-Hunter-Tom

No affordable swap edge ≥10bps; no binary bets. Only USDC held — cannot fill intents requiring crypto as the give-leg.

W3 (18:27): 'no binary bets' despite mimic-ljuba's bet having ~33min left. W4 (19:25): post-expiry, took a swap instead. Watcher's seen-set baseline on arm means any bet already on-book never triggers a wake, regardless of approaching expiry or CEX oracle divergence. The 2h fallback (118min remainin

New binary bet posted (correct for newly-arrived bets)

New swap intent posted (any kind — edge filter happens in-agent)

MISSING: re-evaluation trigger for baseline bets approaching expiry (≤45min) with potential CEX oracle divergence

Posts BinaryBets arb-hunter is designed to take when CEX oracle diverges; current bet (8+6.55 USDC, ~55% side A) is exactly the target surfa

Posts resting swap intents (11 on book per Step-1); arb-hunter's fallback surface — already proved viable (swap #22, #23 attempt)

Also prices binaries against Polymarket; could post bets arb-hunter can take if CEX diverges from Polymarket implied

Same taker role — competitor for the same opportunities, not a counterparty

Fires on new binary bets and new swap intents — correct surfaces for latency arb

Baseline-then-delta prevents spurious wakes on stale book state

60s poll cadence appropriate for latency-sensitive mission

2h fallback ensures agent doesn't sleep forever in a quiet book

Baseline-then-delta silently drops any bet already on-book when watcher arms — these never fire a wake even if they have 45min left and the CEX oracle diverges

2h fallback is too coarse for a mission whose primary surface (binary bets) can have windows of 30-60min — agent can sleep through the entire opportunity

Watcher baseline silently drops existing binary bets

The seen-set is populated on arm, and newMatches() only fires on intents NOT in seen. A binary bet already on-book when the watcher starts is permanently invisible until the next full wake (at most 2h later). This is exactly what likely caused the mimic-ljuba bet miss.

In the watch loop, after baseline is set, check seen-set bets for expiry ≤45min and call fireWake() for them — treating near-expiry as equivalent to 'new' for arb purposes.

2h fallback too coarse for 30-60min binary bet windows

Primary mission is near-decided binary bets. A bet posted at T=0 expiring at T+45min may be missed entirely if the watcher arms at T=5 with a 2h fallback and no new intents post. W4 at 19:25 ran 25min after the 19:00 bet expired.

Reduce fallbackMs to 30 * 60_000 (30min). Simple, no logic change, ensures at least one re-evaluation per typical binary bet window.

USDC-only portfolio limits swap taker surface

W3 explicitly noted 'Only USDC held — cannot fill intents requiring crypto as the give-leg.' With 2 SSV now held from deal #1, this is partially resolved, but the constraint remains for most swap surfaces. Noted as structural in prior summary.

No immediate fix needed — natural inventory builds with each deal. Monitor whether SSV holding enables new swap legs next cycle.

Bear-Yosher

Summary: Fourth consecutive cycle with zero change: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, lifetime spend frozen at $0.78. No new tokens, no new process, no harness event — the single initialization call completed but produced no registered watcher and nothing since. This is not transient sleep; the agent is permanently inert with no self-recovery path

Four observer cycles, lifetime spend locked at $0.78 — the same figure since cycle 1. The initialization LLM call ran once, failed to register a watcher (wake_script_source=null, nextFallbackMin=null), and the process has not attempted to run again. No self-recovery mechanism exists in the current harness for this failure mode.

tokens_lifetime_usd=$0.78 unchanged across 4 cycles; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; watcher.nextFallbackMin=null; wake_script_source=null; wakes=0; recent_wakes=[]. The single call completed (cost captured) but produced no registered watcher — initialization exited without writing a va

Cannot assess — no reasoning has occurred since the failed initialization. The agent has not woken, posted, or reasoned once. The $0.78 spend is the initialization call only; zero mission-relevant computation has run.

MISSING: no watcher registered — nothing can fire this agent

MISSING: no fallback scheduled (nextFallbackMin=null)

MISSING: no harness watchdog to detect and restart watcher-registration failures

If bear-yosher shorts BTC/ETH via delivered swaps, LP could fill the offsetting leg — but bear-yosher uses Perpetuals, not swaps, so direct

Rebalancer-lior is a DCA buyer; bear-yosher is a short-seller — misaligned direction on the same assets, not complementary.

Vulture-andrew takes mispriced positions — could take the other side of a bear-yosher short if priced attractively.

unknown — health=unknown, deployed statu

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never woken, so no book data has ever been evaluated. The BTC downside the fleet is not covering (lior's bid at ~63,348 vs LP ask at ~63,800) is exactly bear-yosher's mission territory, but the agent is not running to observe it.

wake_script_source=null — no wake script was ever registered

No fallback timer set — agent cannot self-restart under any condition

No harness-side watchdog catches watcher-registration failures

Manual re-deployment: restart the agent process so the initialization call can re-run and attempt watcher registration; add a harness-level check that flags agents with lifetime spend > $0 but armed=false and no recent_wakes after N minutes

Initialization completed but watcher registration silently failed

The agent spent $0.78 on a single LLM call (presumably initial reasoning) but produced no wake_script_source and no registered watcher. The process exited cleanly enough for cost to be captured, but unsuccessfully enough that no watcher exists. Four cycles later, nothing has changed.

Re-deploy bear-yosher manually. Before re-running, inspect the agent's CLAUDE.md and any init-path tooling for errors that would cause watcher registration to be skipped or silently rejected (e.g., malformed schedule call, missing required fields, harness version mismatch).

No harness watchdog for failed watcher registration

The platform has no mechanism to detect: 'this agent spent tokens but never registered a watcher, and now it's permanently inert.' This failure mode is invisible until a human inspects the observer board. bear-yosher, bear-yosher, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, stacker-massimo, and vul

Add a fleet-level watchdog: if lifetime_spend > $0 AND wakes == 0 AND armed=false AND pidAlive=false for more than 30 minutes, emit a PushNotification and/or auto-restart the agent process. This converts a silent permanent failure into a recoverable transient one.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Summary: Verdict call failed.

Mimic-Ljuba

Summary: No change since last run: still 0 wakes, $0 burn, armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null. The agent has never been initialized. Even if deployed today, the binary-bet supply chain it depends on remains broken — polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, and option-writer-matheus are all still crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false). arb-hunter-tom is now

mimic-ljuba has zero path to productive operation this cycle. Two independent blockers must both be resolved first: (1) the agent must be initialized and a watcher deployed (0 wakes, null wake_script), and (2) at least one binary-bet writer — polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, or option-writer-matheus — must be uncrashed and posting, since arb-hunter-tom's role is to take those bets, not supply them.

0 lifetime wakes, null wake_script_source, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false — agent never bootstrapped. Supply chain: polymarket-ljuba (armed=false/pidAlive=false), vulture-andrew (armed=false/pidAlive=false), option-writer-matheus (armed=false/pidAlive=false) — all three potential binary

N/A — agent has never run; no reasoning to evaluate. The prior summary correctly diagnosed the dual blocker and nothing has changed to alter that conclusion.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher process (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

MISSING: no binary-bet-posted event trigger (all supply-side agents crashed)

Takes binary bets (taker-side), does not post them — produces no flow for mimic-ljuba to mirror

Posts small-shade binary intents; mimic-ljuba's primary mirror source

Posts near-decided binary intents as part of baited-intent strategy; could supply mimic-ljuba

Writes options and potentially binary instruments; secondary supply source

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never run and has no wake script; cannot assess whether any on-chain BinaryBets existed that it could have accepted

No script exists at all (wake_script_source=null) — agent was never initialized

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

No trigger on BinaryBet-posted events from fleet counterparties

Initialize the agent: deploy a watcher that triggers on BinaryBet-posted chain events from polymarket-ljuba and vulture-andrew addresses, with a 60-min fallback for scanning open accepted bets — but this is moot until at least one supply-si

Agent never initialized — no watcher deployed

0 wakes, $0 burn, null wake_script_source, armed=false, pidAlive=false. The agent directory exists but was never bootstrapped with a watcher script.

Run agent init to deploy wake script and start watcher process; script should trigger on BinaryBet-posted events with 60-min fallback.

All binary-bet supply-side agents crashed — mimic-ljuba has no flow to mirror

polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, and option-writer-matheus are all armed=false/pidAlive=false. These three are the only agents in the fleet that post binary bets. arb-hunter-tom (alive) is a taker, not a poster — it competes for the same flow mimic-ljuba needs.

Uncrash polymarket-ljuba first (it has the highest binary posting frequency per mission); this single action creates the supply chain mimic-ljuba needs and also benefits arb-hunter-tom's deal flow.

Momentum-Nikita

First wake — no trailing returns. Establishing baseline prices. Taking ~25% starter position in BTC (strongest crypto by

intent #28 resolves (fill/expiry) or 90min

Summary: Intent #28 remains live and unresolved — confirmed by fallback countdown dropping from nextFallbackMin=71 → 57 in ~14 min of elapsed time (exact match, no slippage). open_intents=0 metric discrepancy persists as a known SDK/platform issue; watcher evidence (armed=true, ownIntentResolved=false) overrides it. 0 settled deals after 35 min; structural blocker is

Intent #28 is alive, not settled or expired — watcher countdown (71→57 min, 14 min elapsed) cleanly proves it. No fill in 35 min because the BTC spread ($452, 0.7%) puts momentum-nikita's bid below LP-Maker-Matheus's ask; the agent is doing exactly the right thing, but the market isn't clearing. LP-Maker-Matheus's current wake is the only near-term catalyst.

BTC bid-ask gap ~$452 (rebalancer-lior bid ~$63,348 vs LP ask ~$63,800); intent #28 posted 35 min ago, settled_deals_detail=[], no fill event; watcher ownIntentResolved still false

Sound and solving the right problem. First wake established baseline, correctly identified BTC as strongest mover, posted 25% starter — disciplined sizing for a first position. Patient hold while the RFQ window runs is correct momentum behavior. Not a churn loop; 1 wake, 0 repeat_wakes.

ownIntentResolved(#28) = true (fill or expiry) → fireWake 're-decide'

90-min fallback (57 min remaining, fires ~19:14 UTC)

MISSING: no mid-window repricing trigger if BTC spread compresses and a better fill price becomes available

Primary BTC liquidity maker, 12 open intents, just woke 0 min ago — most likely to reprice BTC toward #28's bid this cycle

BTC buyer itself (intent #13 unfilled), not a seller — can't fill momentum-nikita's buy

Takes mispriced intents — could route if #28 is priced competitively, but BTC gap suggests it isn't

unmeasurable: watcher is monitoring its own intent only, not scanning the book — mission-appropriate for a maker-stance agent waiting on delivery; no evidence of takeable intents in momentum-nikita's scope

Fires on ownIntentResolved(#28) — exactly the event that changes the agent's decision space

90-min fallback covers the 1h RFQ window + buffer — well-calibrated for the protocol's timeline

Zero-LLM, pure event poll — cheap and safe to run continuously

No book-trigger (correct: momentum agent isn't a responder, it's a poster)

No mid-window repricing path: if BTC spread compresses to <0.3% during the 90-min hold, #28 could sit at a stale price while a fill is attainable at a slightly

No cancel+repost logic for adverse price moves (BTC dropping sharply during the wait)

Add an optional mid-fallback check at ~45 min: if current BTC oracle has moved >0.5% from #28's posted price, cancel and repost at the updated mid — keeps the position competitive without burning extra wakes

open_intents metric reports 0 despite live posted intent #28

open_intents=0 for 35+ min post-post while watcher confirms #28 is unresolved. This persists across at least 2 summary cycles and creates a misleading health/activity picture for any consumer of that metric.

Audit the open_intents aggregation query — likely a timing or address-match issue; cross-reference against the watcher's ownIntentResolved source to find the gap

No repricing or cancel logic during 90-min RFQ hold

Momentum agent's edge is timing into strength; a 90-min stale bid in a moving BTC market can drift from 'competitive' to 'never fills' with no corrective action until the fallback fires.

Add mid-window repricing check in current.ts at ~45 min: poll oracle, compare to #28's posted rate, cancel+repost if spread > threshold

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: Fourth consecutive cycle with zero change: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, $0.15 lifetime spend (one initialization-era LLM call, never indexed as a wake). The prior summary's conclusion stands — no self-recovery path exists. The $0.15 spend pattern is consistent with an agent that executed one LLM call during setup but never completed

option-taker-matheus has never run: 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher fully disarmed with no fallback scheduled. The $0.15 lifetime spend is a single setup-era LLM call that did not produce a registered wake script. Manual deployment is the only path forward — and its primary counterparty (option-writer-matheus) is in an identical state, so deployment alone won't unlock trades.

wake_script_source=null means harness has no script to schedule; wakes=0 confirms the main loop never ran; armed=false + pidAlive=false + nextFallbackMin=null = no active scheduling state of any kind; $0.15 lifetime spend = one LLM call, never a real wake

N/A — agent has never executed a reasoning loop. The single LLM call ($0.15) was likely an initialization step that failed before writing current.ts to the harness. No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake script registered — harness has nothing to schedule

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

Natural counterparty — writes ETH/BTC options that option-taker-matheus is mission-built to evaluate and take

CRASHED — identical deployment state (he

LP posts swap intents, not options — wrong instrument class for this agent's mission

unmeasurable: agent never ran, so it never evaluated the book. Additionally, option-writer-matheus (its only viable counterparty) is also undeployed, so there are likely no on-chain options to take regardless.

wake_script_source=null — no script exists in the harness at all

Cannot evaluate cadence, triggers, or fallback logic because no script was ever registered

Deploy the agent: write current.ts (scanning for live option intents from option-writer-matheus, cadence ~30–60min given the deliberate one-take-per-wake mission) and register it with the harness. Do this in tandem with option-writer-matheu

Agent never deployed — wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes

The $0.15 lifetime spend is one LLM call from setup; it never produced a current.ts registered with the harness. This is not a crash — it is a deployment that never completed. The fix is manual: re-run the agent's deployment step to generate and register a wake script.

Manually trigger deployment for option-taker-matheus (re-run init/bootstrap command or write current.ts directly into harness). Coordinate with option-writer-matheus deployment — both must be live for any trade to be possible.

Primary counterparty also undeployed

option-writer-matheus is in an identical state (health=unknown, never deployed). Even after option-taker-matheus is live, it will have 0 option intents to evaluate until option-writer-matheus is also running.

Deploy option-writer-matheus first (or simultaneously) so the book has live option intents before the taker starts burning tokens scanning an empty queue.

Deployment gap: agents can enter roster without a registered wake script

Two option agents (taker + writer), stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew, and bear-yosher are all in this state — health=unknown, never deployed, $0 or $0.15 spend. The harness accepts them as roster members but has no guard against wake_script_source=null at registration time. A single setup LLM call ca

Add a harness-level check: if wake_script_source=null after the initialization call completes, mark the agent health=error (not unknown) and surface it in the board as 'deployment incomplete' — currently it is invisible until a human reads the raw metrics.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Summary: No change since last run — state is identical: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, $0.15 lifetime spend. The $0.15 equals last_wake_usd exactly, confirming a single partial initialization wake that never completed watcher registration. Zero option intents ever posted (open_intents=null). Self-recovery is structurally impossible: no

Fully crashed with no self-recovery path. The one initialization wake ($0.15, 100% of lifetime spend) never completed watcher registration — current.ts was never written to disk, so the SDK has nothing to arm. The failure mode is identical to option-taker-matheus: both spent exactly $0.15 on a single init wake and produced zero intents. The 30% option-writing sleeve and 70% contrarian portfolio have never run.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=0.15 == last_wake_usd=0.15 (single init wake, no subsequent activity), open_intents=null, settled_deals=not-indexed

Cannot assess — the agent never reached its reasoning loop. The init wake consumed $0.15 but exited before producing a watcher script. No reasoning has occurred.

MISSING: no watcher script on disk — nothing to arm, nothing to fire

Natural buyer of ETH/BTC options this agent would write

also fully crashed (same deployment-fail

Values options vs Polymarket implied distribution — would buy mispriced ones

Takes near-decided binaries/options on fast feed — could take in-the-money written options

unmeasurable: agent never entered operational state — no intents ever posted, no watcher to observe the book

wake_script_source=null — no current.ts exists on disk; watcher was never written during the initialization wake

No fallback scheduled (nextFallbackMin=null) — the agent cannot self-recover under any condition

Re-deploy from scratch: the init wake must be re-run with a fix ensuring current.ts is written to disk before the process exits — same fix class needed for option-taker-matheus

Watcher script never written during initialization

The single init wake ($0.15) exited before persisting current.ts. This is confirmed by wake_script_source=null and watcher.armed=false. No operational state was ever reached — the 70/30 portfolio logic and option-writing sleeve have never executed.

Re-trigger deployment. Investigate why the init wake exits early — likely an unhandled exception or missing config during watcher-write phase. Check if the same root cause (e.g. missing CLAUDE.md field, SDK version mismatch, or tool permission error) also explains option-taker-matheus's identical $0

Same deployment-failure class as option-taker-matheus — likely shared root cause

Both matheus option agents spent exactly $0.15 on one init wake and produced zero intents and no watcher. The probability of two independent failures at the same cost is low — this points to a shared config error (e.g. a matheus-specific credential, a shared CLAUDE.md misconfiguration, or a tool tha

Diff the init-wake transcripts for both option-writer-matheus and option-taker-matheus; find the first divergence from a healthy agent's init. Fix the shared blocker once, then redeploy both.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: First-ever wake (18:03, 18min ago) posted intent #32 (BTC<$64k/Jun9, 0.617 implied, 10 USDC, expiry ~Jun9 16:00 UTC). Watcher armed+pidAlive, polling every 60s for new non-swap intents and pre-expiry oracle check. Prior open question on wake-script quality is now resolved: script is well-reasoned. Sole concern this cycle: open_intents metric reads 0 despite

Agent is healthy and correctly armed. The 25.6hr fallback is appropriate (bet expires ~21hr from now, fallback fires 4hr post-expiry as a safety net); the real action cadence is the 60s poll loop, not the fallback. The BTC price ($63,457 vs $64k strike) gives ~$543 of room — bet is live but has no taker yet at 18min old.

Intent #32 posted 18min ago; 0 settled deals; 0 counterparty fills. No other non-swap intents on the book to take. Too early to diagnose — agent only has 1 wake.

Sound and on-mission. The one-wake history is too thin to judge churn. The choice to post BTC<$64k at 0.617 (citing $158k Polymarket liquidity + $52k/day volume + oracle $63,457) is quantified and coherent. Not solving the wrong problem.

ownIntentResolved: intent #32 filled or expired

preExpireFired: 5min before Jun9 16:00 UTC expiry — oracle check + settle

newMatches: any non-swap intent appears on book (60s poll)

fallback: Jun9 20:00 UTC (4hr post-expiry)

Takes near-decided binaries — fit grows if BTC approaches $64k in final hours

Mirrors binary bets; could take the other side of #32

Picks off bets — would take #32 if it reads the odds as mispriced

none — book shows 0 non-swap intents to take; watcher would have fired if any appeared in the 18min since wake

60s poll loop actively scans for new non-swap intents — correct cadence for a reactive taker mission

Pre-expiry trigger (5min before Jun9 16:00 UTC) is smart: lets agent check oracle and settle if won without waiting for fallback

Fallback at 4hr post-expiry (not pre-expiry) avoids premature re-wake; correct timing

ownIntentResolved fires immediately on fill — no latency from missing a fill

No Polymarket odds drift check in the loop: if implied probability shifts materially (e.g., BTC spikes to $63,900), the agent can't reprice or post a follow-on

open_intents=0 in metrics despite confirmed on-chain post suggests the book-read tool and the intent-state tool may not be in sync

Add a Polymarket price-drift trigger: if the oracle moves >1% toward or away from the $64k strike, fire a wake so the agent can reassess whether to post a second bet or abandon the current one before expiry.

open_intents metric reads 0 despite confirmed intent #32 post

Metrics show open_intents=0 but recent_wakes log a successful txHash for intent #32. Data-lag or indexer gap means the board can't confirm whether #32 is live or was immediately consumed.

Reconcile readOpenIntents response with on-chain intent state in the SDK data pipeline; ensure the metrics snapshot reflects chain state, not just the API cache.

No Polymarket odds drift trigger between wakes

The watcher can't detect a material Polymarket probability shift (e.g., from 0.617 to 0.75 if BTC drops) that would warrant a second bet or repricing.

Add a lightweight Polymarket API poll to the 60s loop comparing current implied prob vs posted 0.617; fire wake if delta >5pp.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC is most underweight at -35pp. DCA slice = $7. Needed to register agent first (PosterNotRegistered prereq).

intent #13 fills/expires or US market opens (4h fallback)

Summary: Intent #13 (7 USDC → 0.0001105 BTC, ~63,348/BTC) has now expired — open_intents=0 confirms it. The $452 gap vs LP-Maker-Matheus (~63,800) was never bridged. Watcher pidAlive=false since shortly after the w1 wake: both the ownIntentResolved polling loop and the 17:30 UTC market-open setTimeout are dead; only the 4h fallback (fires ~21:20 UTC, nextFallbackMin=

Intent #13 expired unfilled; watcher process death killed the intent-resolution and market-open triggers, leaving only the 4h fallback (~21:20 UTC, 181min out). The DCA mission permits repricing — lior underpriced by $452 vs the only available BTC seller, and should post within ~0.3% of oracle mid on the next wake.

LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole BTC seller at ~63,800; lior bid ~63,348 ($452 gap, 0.7%). No other BTC sellers on book. Intent #13 ran 48+ min unfilled then expired.

Sound in w1 (BTC at -35pp underweight, $7 DCA slice, registration prereq handled correctly). The flaw is price selection: it anchored to ~63,348 rather than querying oracle mid, leaving a $452 gap to the only available seller. This is not a mission constraint — DCA says patient accumulation, not fixed-price anchoring. Solving the right problem; execution underpriced it.

ownIntentResolved polling on intent #13 — DEAD (pidAlive=false, loop stopped)

setTimeout for US market open at 17:30 UTC 2026-06-08 — MISSED (process died before fire time)

4h armWatcher fallback — ALIVE, fires ~21:20 UTC (nextFallbackMin=181)

Only BTC seller on book at ~63,800; gap is bridgeable if lior reprices to within ~0.3% of oracle mid (~63,550–63,600)

ok — woke 0m ago per Step-1, 12 open int

None — lior is a DCA buyer posting bids, not a taker of others' intents. Its only deal path is LP-Maker-Matheus filling its bid; no taker-side opportunities apply to this mission.

Three-trigger design (intent resolution, market-open timer, 4h fallback) is well-reasoned for a DCA agent that trades both crypto and stocks on different cadenc

ownIntentResolved correctly scopes the poll to this agent's own intent, not the whole book

4h fallback ensures the agent never stays dark indefinitely

pidAlive=false killed the polling loop and the setTimeout simultaneously — no recovery path when the watcher process dies mid-watch

Intent expiry is not modeled as a time-based trigger; the only expiry signal is the polling loop (now dead), so the expired intent generated no wake

Register an additional armWatcher deadline matching intent #13's TTL so expiry fires the wake externally — independent of whether the polling process is alive. This decouples the most critical signal (intent expired, must re-decide) from pr

Watcher process death silently kills in-process triggers

pidAlive=false after w1 means ownIntentResolved polling stopped and the 17:30 UTC setTimeout never fired. The 4h external fallback survived (it's registered outside the process), but two of three triggers are dead with no alert or restart. The market-open DCA-stocks opportunity at 17:30 UTC was miss

SDK should detect pidAlive=false and restart the watcher, OR persist scheduled setTimeout triggers externally (alongside armWatcher) so they survive process death.

Bid underpriced by $452 vs the only available BTC seller

Intent #13 at ~63,348 sat $452 (0.7%) below LP-Maker-Matheus's ~63,800 ask for its full ~48min lifetime. The DCA mission imposes no price anchor — the agent should price within a tight band of oracle mid each wake rather than computing its own implied rate that undersells the book.

On next wake (~21:20 UTC), query oracle mid for BTC/USDC and post within 0.2–0.3% of it. If that still doesn't cross LP's ask, the spread is a structural market problem (route to core/fleet), not a lior problem.

Stacker-Massimo

Summary: Fourth consecutive cycle with zero change: never deployed, 0 wakes, $0 burn, wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Both blockers confirmed still present and unchanged: (1) no wake script loaded — watcher cannot arm; (2) 0.50 USDC per-wake lot is ~24× below lp-maker-matheus minimum lot (~12 USDC) — even successful deploym

Stacker-massimo has never run: 0 wakes, $0 burn, wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false across four consecutive cycles. Two independent blockers must both be resolved before any deal is possible: deploy a wake script, and increase lot size from 0.50 USDC to ≥12 USDC to meet lp-maker-matheus's minimum.

wake_script_source=null (no script to arm); watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null (fully offline, not resting); 0.50 USDC mission lot vs ~12 USDC LP minimum — ~24× gap means no deal possible even post-deployment; settled_deals=[] across all time

Cannot evaluate — agent has never woken. Mission text is clear and patient, but the stated lot size (0.50 USDC) is structurally incompatible with the only available sNVDA liquidity provider. The reasoning embedded in the mission is solving the wrong problem at the wrong scale.

MISSING: no wake script loaded — nothing can fire

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — agent is fully offline, not just resting

Only sNVDA liquidity source, but minimum lot ~12 USDC is ~24× stacker's 0.50 USDC slice — every posted intent would be below threshold

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent never deployed, cannot observe or act on any intent

No wake script exists (null) — cannot assess cadence, triggers, or fallback

Without a script, armed=false permanently; agent cannot self-start

Deploy a wake script with a simple time-based fallback (e.g. every 30–60 min) that posts one sNVDA swap intent at ≥12 USDC lot size; no book-reading needed for this patient DCA mission

No wake script — agent never arms

wake_script_source=null across four cycles. watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Agent is fully offline.

Write and deploy a minimal wake script with a time-based fallback trigger (e.g. 30–60 min interval); no oracle or book dependency needed for a simple DCA poster

Mission lot size (0.50 USDC) below LP minimum (~12 USDC) — structural deal freeze

lp-maker-matheus is the only sNVDA counterparty; its minimum lot is ~12 USDC. Stacker's 0.50 USDC per-wake slice would be rejected every time. This blocker is independent of the deployment failure — both must be fixed.

Increase per-wake lot to ≥12 USDC, or confirm LP minimum and set lot to that threshold; adjust total budget/wake cadence accordingly

Swing-Nikita

First wake setup — need approval to trade when signals fire

Summary: Wake #1 confirmed 299 min ago: USDC approved, 60-min warmup watcher armed. Wakes counter is still 1 despite ~5 hours elapsed — intermediate warmup wakes (expected every 60 min, so ~4 by now) are not surfacing in the metric, suggesting the metrics indexer does not capture warmup-cadence sub-wakes, or the agent set a single longer-horizon watcher rather than r

Swing-nikita is alive and correctly in warmup; 0 deals is expected. The unanswerable question — whether any asset is stretched enough to trigger a first trade in ~23 min — resolves on the next wake. The wakes=1 metric despite 5h elapsed is the only anomaly worth watching; it may mean intermediate sample-wakes aren't indexed, or the warmup was set as one long window rather than recurring 60-min arming.

No deals possible during warmup phase; agent has wakes=1, $0.56 lifetime spend (all wake #1), 0 open intents — warmup is designed to build trailing-average samples before any trade fires. This is correct behavior, not a failure.

Sound and on-mission. A dislocation-fader must establish a trailing average before it can detect stretch — the warmup-first approach is the right design. The 60-min cadence is appropriate for building a meaningful multi-sample baseline. However, wakes=1 at 299 min is a discrepancy: either intermediate warmup wakes aren't being counted (metrics gap) or the agent armed a single long-window watcher r

60-min time-based fallback (warmup cadence)

MISSING: condition-based trigger for when warmup transitions to active mode — the current script has an empty poll loop; on next wake, if warmup completes, the

Natural taker for delivered swaps; 12 open intents, 2 settled deals, just woke 0m ago — best available liquidity provider

Also posts delivered swaps (BTC bid ~$63,348); could cross with swing-nikita if they're stretching in opposite directions, but both are make

Focuses on binary bets and near-decided outcomes; not a swap counterparty

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book during warmup. The current script explicitly does no book polling. Whether any open intent (e.g., rebalancer-lior's BTC bid or LP's 12 open intents) could have been taken is unknown — swing-nikita would only evaluate this after warmup completes on the next wake.

Pure time-based 60-min fallback is correct during warmup — no premature signal evaluation before samples exist

Zero LLM spend between wakes ($0 in last 5h — only the initial $0.56 setup cost)

Armed with pid alive; runWatchLoop handles fallback cleanly, no polling waste

Empty poll body (`// No condition to check`) is fine for warmup but signals no transition logic: the script cannot self-exit warmup early if samples accumulate

Wakes=1 at 299 min with a 60-min fallback is unexplained — either intermediate wakes aren't indexed or this is one long watcher, not a recurring 60-min cycle; t

On the next wake, if warmup is complete, emit a condition-based watcher that polls the oracle feed for price-stretch vs trailing average (e.g., fire if any tracked asset deviates >1.5% from its N-sample mean) rather than re-arming another p

wakes=1 at 299 min with 60-min cadence — metric gap or single-window warmup

Either intermediate warmup wakes (expected ~4 by now) aren't indexed in the wakes counter, or wake #1 armed a single long-horizon watcher rather than a recurring 60-min one. Either way, the metric gives no visibility into how many price samples have been collected.

On next wake, have agent log sample count explicitly (e.g., in wake summary: 'warmup sample N of M collected'). If only 1 wake = 1 sample, the trailing average is meaningless and the agent should extend warmup rather than trade.

Warmup sub-wakes not surfacing in wakes counter

If the SDK's wake metrics only count 'mission wakes' and not warmup-cadence wakes, the observer has zero visibility into whether warmup is progressing (N samples) or stalled (still 1 sample after 5h). This affects any agent with a multi-sample warmup phase.

SDK should count all watcher-fired wakes uniformly, or expose a separate warmup_wakes counter so the observer can distinguish 'never fired' from 'fired 4 times in warmup'.

Vulture-Andrew

Summary: Third consecutive run: 0 wakes, $0 burn, armed=false, pidAlive=false, null wake_script_source — never deployed. Opportunity cost now measurable: LP-Maker-Matheus has 12 live swap intents (up from 11 last run) across BTC/ETH/sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL, the BTC ask sits at ~63,800 vs rebalancer-lior's bid at ~63,348 ($452, 0.7% spread), and Mimic-Ljuba's binary (8+6.55

Vulture-andrew has never run a single wake. With 12 LP-Maker-Matheus intents live (BTC ask ~63,800, $452 above rebalancer-lior's bid) and a 14.55 USDC binary expiring in ~39m, the agent is missing multiple on-mission edges simultaneously. This is a pure deployment gap — no code issue, no market issue — the agent simply needs to be started.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null across all 3 observed runs; 0 wakes lifetime; no settled deals indexed

N/A — agent has never executed. No reasoning to evaluate. The mission is sound (take mispriced swaps + near-decided binaries), the market is presenting the exact edges it targets, but no code runs to act on them.

MISSING: any trigger — no wake script exists

MISSING: book poll for LP-Maker-Matheus mispriced intents

MISSING: binary-bet scanner (Mimic-Ljuba 8+6.55 USDC at 19:00 UTC would fire this)

12 live swap intents across BTC/ETH/sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL — prime vulture hunting ground; BTC ask ~63,800 is $452 above rebalancer-lior's reveal

Posted 8+6.55 USDC binary (~39m to 19:00 UTC expiry) — near-decided bets are explicitly vulture's mission

Intent #13 bid ~63,348 BTC now at 0m — expired unfilled; future DCA slices are the recurring counterparty flow vulture could anticipate

Latency arb on CEX feed — same book, different edge; not a counterparty

Intent #13 (rebalancer-lior BTC buy at ~63,348, expired at 0m remaining) — vulture could have posted a matching ask below LP's 63,800. Mimic-Ljuba binary (8+6.55 USDC, 19:00 UTC, ~39m left) — near-decided, on-mission, uncontested. BTC spread arb (~$452) visible all cycle. All unmeasurable precisely: watcher is blind to the book because it doesn't exist.

No wake script exists at all — null wake_script_source

No binary-bet scanner watching for near-expiry / near-decided bets

No fallback cadence to avoid complete silence

Deploy a zero-LLM watcher that polls the open-intent book for (a) any swap priced >0.3% from oracle mid and (b) any binary with <60m to expiry or >80% implied probability — wake the agent only when either threshold is hit, with a 30m fallba

Agent never deployed — no wake script, no watcher

Three consecutive observation cycles: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes. The agent has never run. Meanwhile LP-Maker-Matheus has 12 live intents and a binary bet is expiring in ~39m.

Write and deploy vulture-andrew's CLAUDE.md + watcher (current.ts) with the book-scan logic above. This is the only required action — the market is producing edges on-mission right now.

Opportunity cost: ~$452 BTC spread + 14.55 USDC binary uncontested

BTC ask on book ~63,800 vs rebalancer-lior revealed bid ~63,348 = $452 (0.7%) spread. Mimic-Ljuba binary (8+6.55 USDC, 19:00 UTC) uncontested with ~39m left. Both are on-mission edges; both expire without vulture.

Deployment alone resolves this — no repricing or mission change needed.

wallet-address frequency (5/12 agents addressed)

BTC FROZEN, 42% OFFLINE

both settled deals LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ external addresses (0xFd1B, 0x1a74); 0 agent-to-agent BTC/ETH fills

mimic-ljuba (30m, 8+6.55 USDC) + 0x9199 (1290m, 10 USDC) visible on book; polymarket-ljuba intent #32 live on-chain but SDK open_intents=0

rebalancer-lior bid ~63,348 → [gap $452, 0.7%] ← lp-maker-matheus ask ~63,800

FROZEN — intent #13 expired after 48+ min unfilled; intent #28 (momentum-nikita)

ACTIVE — deal #1 settled (4.24 USDC → 2 SSV, +57bps); LP has 2 SSV → 4.26 USDC s

MAKER ONLY — 0.01 ETH→16.92 USDC and 13.4 USDC→0.008 ETH posted; no awake agent

MAKER ONLY — 6 open intents posted; vulture-andrew (natural taker) never deploye

mimic-ljuba + polymarket-ljuba → [no functioning taker]

SUPPLY CHAIN PARTIAL — 2 live bets on book; arb-hunter-tom missed mimic-ljuba's

LP-Maker-Matheus prices BTC asks at ~63,800; rebalancer-lior bids at ~63,348 — a $452 (0.7%) gap neither agent can cross

BTC market frozen for 2+ consecutive cycles: intent #13 expired after 48+ min, intent #28 now 35+ min unfilled; momentum

Intent #13 confirmed expired (rebalancer-lior open_intents=0); intent #28 watcher ownIntentResolved=false; LP open book shows 0.0002 BTC→12.76 USDC implying ask ~63,800

5 agents permanently offline (bear-yosher, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew)

Fleet at 58% capacity; every market except SSV is maker-only or frozen; no agent takers exist for synthetic equities or

All 5: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null confirmed across 3–4 consecutive cycles; 0 lifetime wakes for most

arb-hunter-tom watcher seeds its seen-set from the book at arm time — pre-existing bets are invisible on all subsequent

mimic-ljuba's binary bet (8+6.55 USDC, 19:00 UTC expiry) was live with ~33 min left at W3 (18:27); agent reported 'no bi

W3 report: 'no binary bets'; mimic-ljuba bet confirmed live with 30min left in concurrent observation; W4 (post-expiry): agent took a swap instead; rootCause documents seen-set baseline mechanism

mimic-ljuba is now LIVE (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=35) — state change from all prior cycles where it wa

Binary supply chain is partially alive: mimic-ljuba posted its own bet AND is watching for counterparties; but the taker

mimic-ljuba watcher.armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=35 this cycle vs armed=false, pidAlive=false in all prior summaries

polymarket-ljuba first-ever wake (18:03) posted intent #32 (BTC<64k, 10 USDC); arb-hunter-tom is the only binary-capable

Intent #32 will age unfilled unless arb-hunter-tom re-arms post seen-set fix and recognizes it as a new intent; with the

polymarket-ljuba intent #32 on book (18min posted at summary time); arb-hunter-tom reliableCounterparties=2 but seen-set bug documented; vulture-andrew armed=false

Both settled deals this cycle are LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ external EOAs (0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77), not internal agents

Fleet's 5.7% conversion rate is driven entirely by external retail flow, not agent-to-agent interplay — the internal net

Recent deals both cite external addresses; only agent-to-agent deal is arb-hunter-tom SSV swap #22 (deal #1, prior cycle)

BTC gap ($452, 0.7%) blocking 3 intents across 2 cycles

LP-Maker-Matheus ask ~63,800 vs rebalancer-lior bid ~63,348 has frozen the BTC market for 2+ consecutive cycles. Intent #13 expired after 48+ min unfilled; intent #28 (momentum-nikita) now 35+ min unfilled. This single pricing gap is the most expensive recurring failure in the fleet.

Intent #13 expiry confirmed (rebalancer-lior open_intents=0); intent #28 watcher ownIntentResolved=false; LP book entry: 0.0002 BTC→12.76 USDC (~63,800/BTC); gap unchanged across orient context

Decide which agent adjusts: rebalancer-lior bid ceiling raised to ~63,700 (0.1% below ask), OR lp-maker-matheus instructed to price BTC within 0.3% of oracle. One CLAUDE.md edit resolves 2 stranded intents immediately.

42% of fleet offline — 5 agents require manual redeploy

bear-yosher, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew: all show armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null across 3–4 consecutive cycles with zero self-recovery. stacker-massimo has an additional mission blocker: 0.50 USDC lot vs ~12 USDC LP minimum (24× gap — even successful redeploy produces no deals without a lot-size fix).

All 5 agents: null watcher state confirmed cycles 1–4; stacker-massimo lot-size gap documented in rootCause; $0–$0.78 lifetime spend (init-only)

Redeploy vulture-andrew first (immediately unlocks synthetic equity taker + binary bet counterparty path for polymarket-ljuba #32). Fix stacker-massimo lot size (0.50→≥12 USDC) before deploying. Then bear-yosher, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus.

arb-hunter-tom seen-set baseline bug — pre-existing bets never re-evaluated

The watcher seeds its seen-set from the book at arm time, making already-live bets permanently invisible regardless of approaching expiry or CEX divergence. This caused a confirmed miss: mimic-ljuba's 8+6.55 USDC bet (19:00 UTC expiry) was live with 33 min left at W3 (18:27) and reported as 'no binary bets'. The bet expired unfilled.

W3 report 'no binary bets' vs confirmed live bet; W4 post-expiry agent took swap instead; polymarket-ljuba intent #32 likely also invisible on arb-hunter-tom's next wake

Modify arb-hunter-tom wake script: scan ALL open non-swap intents each wake (ignore seen-set for eval, or seed seen-set only with filled intents). Add expiry-proximity trigger: fire if any binary bet has <60 min to expiry.

Binary market has 2 live supply bets but zero functioning takers

mimic-ljuba (armed, nextFallbackMin=35) and polymarket-ljuba (intent #32, BTC<64k Jun9 16:00 UTC, 10 USDC) both have live supply. 0x9199 has a 10 USDC binary bet open (1290 min). Three binary bets open, 0 settled. arb-hunter-tom seen-set bug is the proximate blocker; vulture-andrew offline is the structural one.

Open book: mimic-ljuba BinaryBet (30m left), 0x9199 BinaryBet (1290m left); polymarket-ljuba intent #32 confirmed live; settled BinaryBet = 0

Fix arb-hunter-tom seen-set (agent scope, immediate). Deploy vulture-andrew (fleet scope, structural fix). Together these give the binary market 2 active takers.

LP-Maker-Matheus driving all settled volume — 12 open intents healthy

Both this-cycle settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ externals. 12 open intents spanning BTC/ETH/SSV/sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL. The LP is the fleet's sole working hub; internal agents are not yet filling it at scale. arb-hunter-tom's SSV deal (#1, +57bps) is the only agent-to-agent fill to date.

Settled deals: LP↔0xFd1B, LP↔0x1a74; arb-hunter-tom deal #1 settled (4.24 USDC→2 SSV); 12 LP intents confirmed in open book

No LP fix needed. Deploy counterparty agents (vulture-andrew, stacker-massimo corrected lot size) to route agent-to-agent volume through LP's standing book.

polymarket-ljuba deployed successfully — first intent live

First-ever wake at 18:03 UTC produced intent #32 (BTC<64k/Jun9, 0.617 implied, 10 USDC). Watcher armed+pidAlive, 60s polling cadence, 1530-min fallback. open_intents=0 metric is a known SDK indexing lag, not an agent failure. Too early to diagnose counterparty fit after 1 wake.

polymarket-ljuba intent #32 confirmed on open book; watcher.armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=1530

No action needed this cycle. Monitor intent #32 fill. Track open_intents=0 SDK discrepancy as platform issue — this is the third agent affected (also momentum-nikita, rebalancer-lior).

Close the BTC gap: edit rebalancer-lior CLAUDE.md to allow bids up to ~63,700 OR instruct lp-maker-matheus to price BTC within 0.3% of oracle. One edit unblocks intent #28 (momentum-nikita) and prevents the next rebalancer-lior intent from expiring the same way.

Manually redeploy vulture-andrew first (unlocks synthetic equities + binary taker path for 3 open binary bets), then bear-yosher and both option-matheus agents. Fix stacker-massimo lot size to ≥12 USDC before deploying — otherwise it redeploys into guaranteed 0-deal state.

Fix arb-hunter-tom seen-set baseline: evaluate ALL open binary bets each wake regardless of seen-set history; add <60min expiry proximity trigger. Minimum change to make the agent functional as a binary arb taker — polymarket-ljuba intent #32 is live now and waiting.

Investigate open_intents=0 SDK metric discrepancy: confirmed affecting momentum-nikita (intent #28), rebalancer-lior (intent #13), and polymarket-ljuba (intent #32) across 3+ cycles. This erodes observability trust fleet-wide and forces agents to use watcher-state as ground truth

Marginally better vs last run: 2 new deals settled (both LP-Maker-Matheus), polymarket-ljuba deployed for first time — but the BTC bid-ask gap (~$452, 0.7%: rebalancer-lior bid ~63,348 vs LP ask ~63,800) drove intent #13 to 0m remaining unfilled, the same gap that froze the fleet last cycle.

Rebalancer-Lior intent #13 at 0m — expiring NOW unfilled; BTC spread ($452, 0.7%) unchanged from last run

LP-Maker-Matheus just woke (0m ago), 12 open intents, $13.83 5h burn — will it reprice BTC on this wake?

Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet live (~39m, 8+6.55 USDC, 19:00 UTC expiry) — arb-hunter-tom woke 10min ago; did it register this bet?

5 agents crashed/never deployed (bear-yosher, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew) — fleet at 58% capacity

Momentum-nikita intent #28 (BTC buy) absent from open book despite open_intents=0 — settled, expired, or SDK discrepancy?

The mimic-ljuba BinaryBet (8+6.55 USDC, 19:00 UTC, ~39m left) is live — arb-hunter-tom woke 10min ago. Did this wake detect and evaluate the bet, or did the prior 'no binary bets' blind spot recur? Can tom take it profitably given its CEX B

Three cycles frozen (armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0.78 lifetime spend). Has anything changed — any new process, file, or harness event — that could indicate a self-recovery path, or does this require manual re-deployment?

Just woke (0m ago) after 2 deals settled. With rebalancer-lior's BTC buy expiring at 0m (bid ~63,348 vs LP ask ~63,800, $452 gap), will this wake reprice the BTC sell intent closer to 63,348 to clear the gap? And why have 12 open intents at

Has 1 open BinaryBet on the book (~39m left, 8+6.55 USDC, 19:00 UTC). Prior summary said 0 wakes but agent is now armed (last_wake_min_ago=247). Did mimic-ljuba post this BinaryBet itself on that wake? Who is the expected counterparty for t

Intent #28 (BTC buy, ~25% starter) is no longer visible in the open book despite open_intents=0 and pidAlive=false. Did #28 settle (no deal in recent_deals), expire, or cancel? What does the watcher plan as the next move with nextFallbackMi

Still fully crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0.15 lifetime spend). Confirm no self-recovery path exists and scope the fix — is this a deployment script issue, a harness registration gap, or something else requiring manual intervention

Still fully crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0.15 lifetime spend, 0 option intents ever posted). Confirm no self-recovery path and identify the specific blocker — is this the same class of deployment failure as option-taker-matheus?

Deployed last cycle; intent #32 (BTC<$64k/Jun9, 10 USDC, 1299m left) is on the book. With nextFallbackMin=1540 (~26hrs), is the watcher cadence appropriate for a bet expiring ~Jun 9, or should it fire sooner to monitor price and post additi

Intent #13 (7 USDC → 0.0001105 BTC, implied ~63,348/BTC) is at 0m — expiring now. LP-Maker-Matheus BTC sell sits at ~63,800 ($452 gap, 0.7%). Will lior's next wake repost at a higher bid to bridge the gap, or does its DCA mission constrain

Never deployed, 0 wakes, $0 burn — third consecutive cycle unchanged. Two blockers persist: (1) no wake script loaded, (2) 0.50 USDC lot ~24× below LP minimum lot (~12 USDC). Confirm both blockers are still present and identify whether fixi

In warmup phase since wake #1 (285min ago); watcher fires in ~25min. Has the warmup window produced a concrete signal — is any asset stretched enough vs trailing average to trigger a first trade on the next wake, or will it extend warmup ag

Never deployed, 0 wakes, $0 burn. LP-Maker-Matheus now has 12 live swap intents covering BTC, ETH, sNVDA, sMSFT, sAAPL — exactly vulture's hunting ground. Quantify the current opportunity cost (USD mispricing available on the book) and iden

rebalancer-lior: intent #13 expired (0m) — verify next wake fires and check if lior will reprice BTC bid upward to close the $452 gap, or if mission constraints force same-price repost

arb-hunter-tom: mimic-ljuba BinaryBet (19:00 UTC, ~39m left) is live — confirm whether the 10min-ago wake detected it; if the blind spot persists, agent's binary-bet trigger needs fixing

BTC bid-ask spread ($452, 0.7%) is the single bottleneck blocking rebalancer-lior and (formerly) momentum-nikita — investigate whether LP-Maker-Matheus can be configured to narrow its BTC ask or wheth

5 agents crashed/never deployed (bear-yosher, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew) — fleet at 58% capacity; manual re-deployment required for all five, priorit

momentum-nikita: intent #28 absent from open book — reconcile whether it expired or settled (no matching deal in recent_deals) before next wake posts another BTC buy into the same illiquid spread