Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary clears latency bar (cexTakerInMoney=false, margin -1.93%); no swap edge ≥10bps that I can fund and hold.

new intent >1789 ≥10bps SSV OR binary bet ≤30min to settlement — 30-min fallback

Summary: Prior ended with deal #156 settled (+109bps SSV/USDC vs LP-Maker, +$0.043) and HIGH_WATER at 1754; binary bar continuously failing (BTC ~$64k vs $65k strike). This cycle (w229–w231): HIGH_WATER advanced 1754→1789 (35 new intents scanned across 3 wakes), 0 binary fills, 0 swap fills. BTC fell further — margin now -1.93% at w231 vs -1.49% at w226, so the binar

BTC at $63,909 is -1.93% from the $65k strike at w231 — further from clearing than last cycle's -1.49%. No binary fills and no swap fills in w229–w231; SSV edge evaporated post deal #156 and WETH/mBTC approval blocks cap the swap surface. Agent is healthy and on-mission; the opportunity set degraded this cycle.

Binary: cexTakerInMoney=false, margin -1.93% at w231 (worse than -1.49% at w226); bear-yosher's $65k BTC strike requires BTC to rise ~$1,091 from current $63,909. Swap: SSV oracle near mid post-deal #156 (w230 log: 'SSV oracle near-'); remaining new intents in w229–w231 priced taker-negative or requ

Sound and on-mission. Correctly identifies margin -1.93% as below threshold; correctly skips taker-negative SSV intents after oracle convergence; correctly flags WETH/mBTC approval blocks rather than attempting blocked fills. Not churning — HIGH_WATER advances confirm it's scanning fresh intents each wake. Solving the right problem.

New intent ID > HIGH_WATER(1789) with ≥10bps SSV sell- or buy-edge

New intent matching BINARY_BET_HASHES (1 hash hardcoded: 0x85ae...)

30-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=29 at observation time)

9 of 10 recent swap deals; primary SSV/WETH/BTC liquidity source — but SSV oracle near mid now, edge gone

active, 119 lifetime deals, 11 open inte

1 prior swap deal; Vulture's 1% floor vs LP-Maker's 0.22–0.35% means LP-Maker fills first on any edge arb-hunter sees

4 open intents on book but undercut by L

The only live binary counterparty; re-posted #1757 at $65k BTC strike, but BTC $1,091 below — taker-losing for arb-hunter

alive and posting, but binary structural

None verifiable on the SSV surface — edge was gone post-deal #156 (oracle convergence). WETH/mBTC approval block means the agent cannot assess those legs at all; w228 log named '#1737 WETH blocked' as the next-best candidate at the time, suggesting potential edge existed but was inaccessible. Unmeasurable until approvals are cleared.

Fires immediately on new intents above HIGH_WATER — snipes fresh postings without polling on a fixed timer, matching latency-arb mission

Binary bet detection via template hash set gives instant wake on known binary types without an LLM call

Dual CEX feeds (Binance SSV + Coinbase BTC) with 30-sec cache — matches dual-surface mission cleanly

30-min fallback provides sweep coverage for templates not in BINARY_BET_HASHES and for oracle drift checks

BINARY_BET_HASHES contains only 1 hash — ETH binary templates and any new bear-yosher variants won't trigger an immediate wake; fallback catches them 30 min lat

No spendability pre-check at watcher scan time — WETH/mBTC needsApproval is discovered only at wake, wasting a wake slot on a structurally unactionable edge

Add all active binary template hashes (ETH variants, any new BTC variants) to BINARY_BET_HASHES — a 30-min lag on a new binary is the exact latency miss this agent exists to avoid; this is the highest-leverage single change.

WETH/mBTC needsApproval blocks swap surface every cycle

w228 and w231 both log WETH/mBTC as approval-blocked. Reduces effective swap universe to mSSV-only. w228 named '#1737 WETH blocked' as next-best candidate, suggesting real opportunity cost.

Run token-approval transactions for WETH and mBTC from the agent wallet so these assets become spendable; or add a one-time approval step to agent startup/init.

BINARY_BET_HASHES covers only 1 template hash

Watcher fires immediately only on 0x85ae...f9fc. Any ETH binary or new BTC binary template posted by bear-yosher or others falls through to the 30-min fallback, undermining the latency-arb advantage.

Enumerate all active binary template hashes (query the book for all templateHash values on BinaryBet-type intents) and add them to the set in current.ts.

Bear-Yosher

1786 was filled immediately; mission requires one resting anchor. Posted 1788 at $65,000 (different strike) to avoid ove

intent 1788 resolved | deal-159 near expiry | BTC>$64,702 | ETH>$1,686 | new BinaryBet | 4h fallback

Summary: Prior summary: #1757 posted at $65k with ~49 min remaining, BTC $63,909 (1.66% below strike), no ABOVE taker expected. Since then: #1757 expired unfilled at ~17:53 UTC exactly as predicted. Agent adapted — tightened strike from $65k→$64,500 and posted #1786, which was filled IMMEDIATELY (deal 159 live: BTC<$64,500, expiry June 15 17:59 UTC, counterparty like

#1757 expired unfilled at ~17:53 UTC — BTC moved slightly lower ($63,909→$63,746), no ABOVE-side taker materialised. Agent tightened to $64,500, got an immediate fill (deal 159, counterparty likely Mimic-Ljuba). Deal 159 is currently 1.18% ITM for bear-yosher with ~23 h to expiry (June 15 17:59 UTC); #1788 resting at $65k as the second anchor.

Anchors #1626, #1674, #1713, #1757 all expired unfilled — no ABOVE taker at $65k with BTC 1.61–4.28% below strike. Strike tightening to $64,500 broke the drought: #1786 filled immediately (deal 159). The problem was structural illiquidity at the $65k level, not agent behaviour.

Sound and adaptive. Agent correctly read that no counterparty would take the ABOVE side at $65k when BTC was ~$63,900; tightened to $64,500 and got an immediate fill — the right inference from four consecutive unfilled anchors. Re-posting #1788 at $65k as a separate resting anchor while deal 159 is live is on-mission (mission requires exactly one resting anchor). No churn, no off-mission drift.

ownIntentResolved(1788) — filled or expired ~19:04 UTC Jun 14

Deal 159 betExpiry approach: fires at Unix 1781546040 (5 min before June 15 17:59 UTC)

New BinaryBet on book (potential taker opportunity)

Filled #1786 immediately (deal 159 live) — confirmed active ABOVE-side taker; mirrors recent BinaryBets

Targets near-decided binaries; BTC at 1.18% below $64,500 could attract a late-stage arb take on deal 159's ABOVE side before expiry, but 23

Values binaries against Polymarket implied distribution — could take the open #1788 ($65k) if Polymarket implies ABOVE probability is underp

ok, orphaned intent #1711 monitoring iss

None identified — wakes w45/w46/w47 each scanned for takeable binaries and found none (only 1609 at 0.14% margin, correctly skipped per mission). No binary intents appeared in the book that bear-yosher could have taken.

Watches own intent (#1788) for resolution — immediate re-post trigger, correct for mission's 'always one resting anchor' rule

Hard-wired deal-159 expiry fire (Unix 1781546040, 5 min before June 15 17:59 UTC) — ensures settlement wake arrives on time without relying on a poll coincidenc

Dual adverse-move guards (BTC >$64,702, ETH >$1,686 = +1.5% from baseline) — correct posture-check trigger; not so tight as to generate noise

New BinaryBet scan — keeps taker pipeline live while deal 159 runs

4h fallback present; 60s poll cadence is appropriate for a 23h binary

No check for deal 159 settlement RESULT after expiry — if BTC crosses $64,500 before June 15 17:59 UTC and the deal resolves early, the watcher won't know until

newMatches() initialises `seen` on first poll and returns immediately — first scan after wake is always a no-op; a small latency blind-spot on genuinely new bet

Add a deal-resolved check for deal 159 (analogous to ownIntentResolved but for the live deal) so bear-yosher wakes immediately when the bet settles — either to recycle the 4 USDC into a new anchor or to handle an early adverse resolution. T

No early-settlement wake for live deal 159

Deal 159 expires June 15 17:59 UTC, but binary bets can resolve early if the strike is crossed decisively before expiry. Current watcher only fires 5 min before betExpiry; an early resolution (win or loss) would be discovered only at the next periodic trigger (up to 4h later).

Add a `dealResolved(belt.tools, '159')` check inside the runWatchLoop — fire on resolution so the agent can immediately recycle USDC or post a new anchor rather than waiting up to 4h.

newMatches() first-tick blind-spot

`seen` is null on first loop iteration, so the BinaryBet scan initialises the set and returns without checking — any bet posted in the first 60s after watcher start is missed.

Initialise `seen` from the book BEFORE entering runWatchLoop (or seed it at the top of the first tick before the early-return), so the first real scan can detect genuinely new intents.

Index-Maker

Summary: 34th consecutive null cycle — no change whatsoever from prior run. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No provisioning signal detected this cycle: no wallet assignment, no config file, no env var, no watcher. IndexBasket market segment fully offline; index-taker identical

34th consecutive null cycle. Zero provisioning signal: no address, no wake script, no watcher, 0 tokens lifetime. This agent has never run. Nothing to analyze until a wallet is assigned and config deployed.

address=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0 lifetime, tokens_lifetime_usd=0 — agent has never been provisioned

N/A — agent has never woken; no reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake script deployed
MISSING: no watcher armed
MISSING: no wallet address assigned

Mission-paired: index-taker is the only agent designed to take the SHORT side of index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents

Also null/unprovisioned — identically do

unmeasurable: agent has never run and has no wake script; watcher blind to book

No wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

Provision a wallet address and deploy a minimal wake script — the IndexBasket market cannot open until both index-maker and index-taker are provisioned together, since they are each other's only counterparty.

Agent never provisioned — 34 consecutive null cycles

address=null, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, 0 lifetime wakes, 0 lifetime tokens. The IndexBasket market segment is entirely offline. index-taker is in the same state, so provisioning index-maker alone is insufficient — both must be deployed together.

Assign a wallet address, deploy CLAUDE.md + wake script for both index-maker and index-taker simultaneously, and arm their watchers. No partial provision will produce deals.

34th consecutive null cycle. Zero provisioning signal: no address, no wake script, no watcher, 0 tokens lifetime. This agent has never run. Nothing to analyze until a wallet is assigned and config deployed.

Index-Taker

Summary: 35th consecutive null cycle — no change confirmed. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens across all time. Index-maker (sole natural counterparty and only source of LONG IndexBasket intents) remains health=unknown and equally undeployed. Both sides of the IndexBasket market are offline; no unil

35th consecutive null cycle. No wallet, no watcher, no wakes, $0 lifetime spend. Index-taker cannot operate until provisioned; its only counterparty (index-maker) is also undeployed, so provisioning either side alone produces nothing.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, 0 lifetime tokens — agent has never run

N/A — no wakes have ever occurred; no reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no watcher armed, no fallback scheduled, no wake script present

Sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of

health=unknown, equally undeployed — 0 w

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — and index-maker has never posted an IndexBasket intent, so there is nothing to miss

wake_script_source is null — no script exists at all

Provision the agent: assign a wallet, deploy a wake script that polls the indexer for new LONG IndexBasket intents and fires when one appears, with a fallback cadence of ~60 min.

Agent never deployed — 35 consecutive null cycles

No wallet, no watcher, no wake script, 0 lifetime wakes. Has never executed a single action.

Provision index-taker with a wallet and a watcher that monitors the indexer for LONG IndexBasket intents. Must be paired with index-maker provisioning — provisioning one side alone yields no deals.

Both sides of IndexBasket market offline simultaneously

index-maker (LONG intent author) and index-taker (SHORT taker) are both health=unknown with 0 lifetime wakes. The IndexBasket market has never cleared a single deal.

Coordinate joint provisioning of index-maker and index-taker in the same deployment step; staggered rollout leaves one side stranded.

35th consecutive null cycle. No wallet, no watcher, no wakes, $0 lifetime spend. Index-taker cannot operate until provisioned; its only counterparty (index-maker) is also undeployed, so provisioning either side alone produces nothing.

LP-Maker-Matheus

No quote inversions, no fillable intents (negative edge or insufficient sNVDA inventory), all Cluster Z quotes live 44mi

Summary: Cluster X (22-TX renewal at w143, driven by SSV oracle +1.3%) held through w144–w150 with only intra-cluster bid-cancel/repost wakes (4 TXs each at w147, w150) for ETH/BTC oracle drift. Cluster Y prefire scheduled ~18:04 UTC. sNVDA ask from prior cycle was consumed — inventory now $0.09, no sNVDA ask in Cluster X or Y; 3 Stacker-Massimo fills in recent settl

Cluster X held cleanly post-renewal; oracle drift (ETH -0.43%, BTC -0.34%) caused 2 intra-cluster bid repairs (w147, w150) without a full renewal. sNVDA ask was filled — 3 Stacker-Massimo deals in the last 38 settled, and inventory is now $0.09, confirming the take. Cluster Y prefire armed for ~18:04 UTC. No infra failures; the only structural risk is token cost ($54.05/5h) exceeding realized spread income (-$1.69 PnL).

LP-Maker is functioning as designed (120 lifetime deals, 16/16 recent swap deals). Negative realized PnL (-$1.69) against $54.05/5h token cost means the hub subsidizes fleet liquidity at its own expense — structural LP economics, not a bug.

Sound and on-mission. Each wake correctly classifies the trigger (oracle drift → bid-only repair vs full cluster renewal vs prefire timer) and acts proportionally. The w144 flag of ETH ask at +0.05bps 'below δ_floor' shows the agent is self-auditing spread quality. The only concern is that tight-spread posts invite Arb-Hunter fills (8 of 38 recent deals), compressing margin further.

Cluster Y prefire timer (ts 1781460288, ~18:04 UTC, 7min before ETH ask #1767 expiry)

New fillable swap intent from non-self poster

8 of 38 recent fills; fast CEX-feed arb picks off LP-Maker's tightest posts — primary taker

3 recent fills confirmed; sNVDA ask consumed this cycle (inventory $0.09 proves take)

6 recent fills; rotational swap demand aligns well with LP-Maker's multi-asset book

2 recent fills; mean-reversion swaps naturally counterpart LP-Maker mid-quotes

3 recent fills; rebalancing after options activity routes through LP-Maker

4 recent fills; takes spread when LP-Maker posts narrower than Vulture's 1% floor

none — LP-Maker is a pure maker; it posts and waits. The one structural gap: sNVDA inventory exhausted ($0.09), so it cannot quote sNVDA asks until it reacquires inventory via a buy-side fill. If sNVDA oracle moves within the guard band [204.65, 207.0], the guard fires but there's nothing to cancel or repost on the ask side.

Prefire timer fires 7min before earliest expiry — gives time to cancel+repost without a gap in book coverage

Per-asset inversion guards with tight bands catch oracle drift without waiting for the LLM wake; proportional response (4 TXs for bid repair vs 22 TXs for full

newMatches() on fillable swap intents enables opportunistic fill-side response without polling

90min fallback is appropriately patient for a resting-quote market-maker

Zero-LLM watch loop; all guard logic is deterministic

No sNVDA inventory guard: when inventory is $0.09, the watcher will still fire on sNVDA oracle breach, wake the LLM, and find nothing to repost — a wasted wake

newMatches() fires on any new fillable swap intent but LP-Maker already has resting quotes; the LLM still needs to assess whether the incoming intent is better

Add an inventory check in the prefire/guard logic: skip sNVDA guard fires when sNVDA inventory < threshold (e.g. 0.01 sNVDA), and add a comment to the watcher noting the missing-inventory condition so the LLM wake can prioritize reacquiring

sNVDA inventory exhaustion creates silent book gap

Inventory at $0.09 means no sNVDA ask can be posted in Cluster Y. The watcher has no inventory gate — it will fire on sNVDA guard breaches and produce 0-TX wakes until inventory is restocked.

Add an inventory floor check (e.g. sNVDA > 0.05 sNVDA) before registering the sNVDA guard, and add logic in the LLM wake to proactively post a sNVDA buy intent when inventory is below the restock threshold.

ETH ask δ_floor breach at w144 (+0.05bps vs floor)

w144 logged 'ETH ask #1726 posted at +0.05bps above mid — below δ_floor'. A spread this tight is indistinguishable from mid for Arb-Hunter, who takes 8 of 38 recent fills. If this happens regularly at cluster renewals, LP-Maker is gifting arb profit.

Enforce δ_floor as a hard minimum in the renewal logic; if oracle-implied price falls within δ_floor of the posted ask price, widen to δ_floor before posting — never post below floor even if the oracle says the spread is technically positive.

Token cost ($54.05/5h, 36.2% pool) exceeds realized spread income (-$1.69 PnL)

LP-Maker is the liquidity hub (120 deals, 16/16 recent swaps route through it) but its LLM-driven renewal cadence makes it the most expensive agent per-period. The hub externality — all other agents benefit from its quotes — is unpriced. Realized PnL is -$1.69 while portfolio appreciation (+$46.99)

Evaluate moving cluster renewal to a script-level deterministic repost (cancel + bulk repost in one TX batch without LLM) — reserve LLM wake for auditing custom deals and handling ambiguous fills. This could cut token cost 50%+ while preserving the hub function.

Mimic-Ljuba

deal #159 expiry (~24h) OR new BinaryBet appears OR 60-min fallback

Summary: Deal #154 loss (-$7.38, portfolio to $88.24) confirmed last run. Board was structurally empty for wakes w97–w100 (~1.5h post-settlement). The [object Object] rendering bug resurfaced in w100 (same status-serialization failure as prior run). w101 then accepted deal #159 (intent #1786, BTC, +8pp edge) — first binary in ~40 wakes, breaking the dry spell. Wake s

Board was empty post-#154 loss through w97–w100; bear-yosher posting #1786 triggered w101 which accepted deal #159 (BTC, +8pp edge). [object Object] serialization bug reappeared in w100 but did not block the w101 accept. Watcher is fully armed with three triggers: new BinaryBet, deal #159 expiry -5 min, and 60-min fallback.

Binary board empty for wakes w97–w100 (~1.5h); no new BinaryBets posted until bear-yosher's #1786. [object Object] in w100 is a rendering/serialization issue, not an accept gate block — w101 executed cleanly immediately after.

Sound and on-mission. 3pp edge floor correctly enforced across w94–w100 (skipped #1713 at +0–5pp, skipped #1609 at marginal edge on Sunday calm in w94). w101 correctly accepted +8pp opportunity. One-deliberate-move rule applied consistently. The w100 [object Object] status suggests a serialization error in the output object but did not corrupt decision logic.

New BinaryBet appears on board (newMatches polling every 30s)

Deal #159 expiry -5 min (hardcoded DEAL_EXPIRY_TS 2026-06-15 ~16:27 UTC)

Primary BinaryBet writer; posted #1786 that mimic accepted as deal #159 — the sole reliable supply side

Occasionally posts binary intents; mimic has 1 settled deal against them

Also a binary taker — competes with mimic for the same intents rather than supplying them

Intent #1713 (w98: +0–5pp edge) correctly skipped below 3pp floor. Board empty w97–w100; no other binary intents were available. None missed.

New BinaryBet detection via newMatches is the correct primary trigger for a copy-trader — fires the moment supply appears

Deal expiry -5 min trigger lets mimic assess outcome and act at settlement boundary

60-min fallback prevents indefinite stale state; seenBinaryIds baseline avoids double-fire on startup

DEAL_EXPIRY_TS and the '#159' comment are hardcoded — every newly accepted deal requires a manual script rewrite; stale between deals

[object Object] serialization bug unaddressed since prior run — corrupts wake logs even when logic is correct

Replace hardcoded DEAL_EXPIRY_TS with a dynamic lookup of mimic's live open deals at watcher startup (read open intents/deals for mimic's address, find earliest expiry) — eliminates the per-deal script edit and the window where the expiry t

[object Object] status rendering bug (recurrent)

w100 logs '[object Object]' in the wake status position — a JavaScript object reference is being stringified as-is instead of its string value. Appeared in prior run, recurred here. Does not block execution (w101 accepted cleanly immediately after) but corrupts wake-log readability and makes post-mo

In mimic's CLAUDE.md output handler or wake logger, ensure the status field is JSON.stringify()ed or .toString()ed before being interpolated into the log line; the raw object reference is reaching the template literal.

Hardcoded deal expiry in wake script requires per-deal manual edit

DEAL_EXPIRY_TS = 1781546340 and FIRE_BEFORE_EXPIRY_SECS refer specifically to deal #159. After deal #159 settles, the expiry trigger becomes stale until the script is manually updated for the next accepted deal — creating a window where mimic runs without an expiry wake.

At watcher startup, dynamically fetch mimic's live open deals and derive the earliest expiry timestamp; use that as the trigger deadline. No per-deal script edit needed.

Momentum-Nikita

7th consecutive hold since wake 31 — field compressed 0.076–0.814pp all day Jun 14. Crypto dipping modestly from intrada

Leader gap ≥2pp from baseline | new SSV/sNVDA fair seller ≥$2 | US mkt close 20:00 UTC | 8h fallback

Summary: w37 (06-14T17:21, 48 min ago) confirmed gap collapsed further: SSV leads by only 0.076pp, down from 0.521pp at w36 and 0.69pp at w35 — moving decisively AWAY from the 2pp threshold, not toward it. Portfolio ticked up marginally to $102.38 (from $102.20). Hold remains correct. Market-close trigger (20:00 UTC) has not fired; ~1h51min remaining from ~18:09 UTC

SSV-vs-sNVDA gap compressed to 0.076pp at w37 — noise, not signal — well inside the 2pp edge threshold. Portfolio $102.38 stable. Market-close trigger fires in ~1h51min; after that, universe narrows to crypto-only (BTC/ETH/SSV) and re-rank may shift leadership.

Gap dropped from 0.69pp (w35) → 0.521pp (w36) → 0.076pp (w37); the entire equity+crypto field moved in lockstep, erasing any leader. No instrument cleared the 2pp edge; no on-chain action is appropriate. This is a market-structure condition, not a platform or toolchain problem.

Sound, solving the right problem. Agent correctly identified the 0.076pp gap as noise and held. The chain w35→w36→w37 shows a consistent, quantitative declining-gap narrative — no re-derivation churn, just new data applied to a stable rule. No false-positive action taken despite three consecutive wakes with no gap signal.

Momentum gap ≥2pp across ranked universe

New fair SSV seller ≥$2 notional (≤oracle×1.005)

New fair sNVDA seller ≥$2 notional (≤oracle×1.005)

US market close 20:00 UTC 2026-06-14 (hardcoded date)

6 of 8 settled swaps went through LP-Maker; live sNVDA and SSV inventory on the book; dominant clearing venue for any rotation trade

active, 11 open intents, 16 of last 16 s

1 settled deal; could offer the opposite leg on a rotation, but mission is DCA not market-making — availability depends on its own rebalance

1 settled deal; will take mispriced swaps but momentum-nikita posts at fair value, so only transacts if Andrew is also looking to offload

ok health, 42 lifetime deals but spreads

none — gap at 0.076pp is genuine noise; no fair-priced opportunity cleared the 2pp edge since w36. stacker-massimo's LP-Maker sNVDA ask (12 USDC) was on the book but sNVDA is not leading (gap too thin), so not a missed entry by momentum-nikita's rules.

Triggers precisely on the conditions the agent acts on: gap≥2pp, new fair seller in the leading asset, market-close re-rank, 8h fallback — no over-firing

Baseline captured dynamically on first poll; ≥$2 notional guard eliminates micro-lot false alarms (fixed at w34)

Market-close trigger correctly narrows universe to crypto-only after 20:00 UTC, matching mission logic

No LLM in the watcher loop; zero-cost polling

MARKET_CLOSE_MS hardcoded to '2026-06-14T20:00:00Z' — stale tomorrow; should compute dynamically as 'next 20:00 UTC'

w37 fired 54 min after w36 — likely the fair-seller trigger, but the wake log doesn't explicitly confirm which trigger fired; a labelled fireWake() reason would

Replace the hardcoded `new Date('2026-06-14T20:00:00Z')` with a dynamic 'next 20:00 UTC from now' computation so the market-close trigger auto-advances each day without a script edit.

Hardcoded market-close date expires at midnight UTC

MARKET_CLOSE_MS = new Date('2026-06-14T20:00:00Z') — after tonight the trigger never fires again until the script is manually re-armed with tomorrow's date.

Compute as: const today20 = new Date(); today20.setUTCHours(20,0,0,0); const MARKET_CLOSE_MS = today20.getTime() < Date.now() ? today20.getTime() + 86400000 : today20.getTime();

SSV-vs-sNVDA gap compressed to 0.076pp at w37 — noise, not signal — well inside the 2pp edge threshold. Portfolio $102.38 stable. Market-close trigger fires in ~1h51min; after that, universe narrows to crypto-only (BTC/ETH/SSV) and re-rank may shift leadership.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Wake 33 check: 2h fallback fired per wake 32 watcher. No audited Options to evaluate.

new audited Option intent appears (template 0xb3d66f4...) OR 6h fallback

Summary: Alive, disciplined, but template-locked. Prior summary (w33 at 17:31, 39 min ago) had 4 pre-existing settled deals vs 0x57F8…B0ff — no new deals since then. Focus question resolved: the 4 settled_deals_detail entries are ALL pre-existing (same 4 from last run; settled_deals lifetime still 5). Option-writer's 0x6e2/0x6e3 did NOT match the AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HAS

Option-taker is alive and reasoning correctly (rejected #1600 twice, passed #1641) but its AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH filter is out of sync with option-writer's current posts — option-writer's 0x6e2/0x6e3 showed up as 'unknown custom deals' in w33 and expired (0m TTL) without option-taker ever evaluating them. $26.81 realized PnL on $1.47 token spend is excellent, but the flow is drying up due to this template mismatch.

w33 logged 'Zero audited Option intents found; only Swaps and unknown custom deals' while option-writer's 0x6e2/0x6e3 were live on book with >0m TTL at that point; both expired at 0m TTL unseen; all 5 lifetime deals are with 0x57F8…B0ff (option-writer) so that counterparty is active but posting unde

Sound within its filter — disciplined rejection of #1600 (coin-flip/overpriced) across w30/w31, correct pass on #1641. Problem is not the reasoning but the scope: it's solving the right problem with the wrong key. The template hash constant is hardcoded; if option-writer updated their template, option-taker reasons over an empty set and looks like it's correctly waiting in a thin book.

New intent matching AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH 0xb3d66f4... appears on book (60s poll)

MISSING: no trigger for option-writer's current template hash — if hash rotated, watcher never fires on new option-writer posts

Sole counterparty for all 5 settled deals (0x57F8…B0ff); writes the exact instrument type option-taker buys — but currently posting under a

active (20 lifetime deals, 2 open intent

Option-writer's intents 0x6e2/0x6e3 — live on book during w33 window, visible as 'unknown custom deals', expired at 0m TTL without evaluation. Whether they met option-taker's edge bar is unmeasurable (template mismatch prevented even reading their parameters). This is a concrete missed opportunity from the template lock.

60s poll cadence is correct for an event-driven taker watching for new posts

Fires only on new intent IDs (diff vs seenIntentIds) — avoids re-evaluating the same intent each poll

6h fallback ensures agent wakes even when no new options appear

Zero-LLM watcher — efficient and reliable

AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH is a single hardcoded constant — if option-writer rotates or updates their template, watcher filter silently yields zero results forever

No logging when auditedOptions is empty vs when it's non-empty but all seen — makes it impossible to tell from watcher logs whether the book is empty or the fil

seenIntentIds reset on each process restart means the first loop iteration after a restart is always a no-op even if new options are present

Accept a list of known audited template hashes (not a single constant), or — better — log the full template hash of every 'unknown custom deal' seen on the book so the mismatch is surfaced in wake logs rather than silently missed. This one

Hardcoded AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH out of sync with option-writer's current template

w33 found 'only Swaps and unknown custom deals' while option-writer's 0x6e2/0x6e3 were live. All 5 historical deals are with option-writer (0x57F8), so the template was valid in the past — it has since drifted. Option-taker's filter now screens out its only counterparty.

Identify option-writer's current template hash (read 0x6e2 or 0x6e3 intent details on-chain), update AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH in wake-watch script, and audit the new template before accepting. Alternatively, expand to a set of accepted hashes.

Silent filter failure — unknown custom deals are discarded without logging their template hash

When the watcher polls and finds intents that don't match the template hash, it discards them silently. This makes template-hash drift invisible until a human reads the wake log and notices 'unknown custom deals' in passing.

Add a log line emitting the template hashes of discarded intents: 'skipping intent #X — template 0xABC... not in accepted set'. This would have surfaced the drift in w33 immediately.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Direct settlement of resting order faster than waiting for new intent fill. sNVDA buy bridges gap to 70% portfolio targe

Summary: 0x6e2/0x6e3 (oracle−0.5%, posted w5 16:42 with 1h TTL) expired unfilled; their resolution fired the watcher which triggered w6 (16:47). At w6 the agent adapted — rather than re-posting a passive sAAPL bid, it accepted a resting sAAPL ask (intent 1776 → deal 160: 0.05 sAAPL + 14.56 USDC, settled ↔ 0xBd6a) and posted a fresh sNVDA buy as intent 1791 (10 USDC,

The 70% swap engine is working and growing more adaptive (w6 took a resting offer rather than re-posting a passive bid, producing deal 160). But the 30% option-writing sleeve has been silent for 5 consecutive wakes since w2's cancellation — no pricing, no deferral reasoning, no intents — and w6 makes zero mention of it despite a 55+ USDC buffer. PnL −$11.38 on 20 settled deals.

Option sleeve: 1 intent in 6 wakes (w1 canceled w2); zero option intents w3–w6. Swap engine active: 20 settled deals, deal 160 (w6) via active taking. The option gap is not counterparty-starved — option-taker-matheus has 5 deals but is supply-starved because option-writer stopped supplying.

Sound for the swap engine — w6 showed genuine book-awareness by accepting intent 1776 (active take) rather than re-posting another expiring passive bid; that is an improvement over w3–w5's repeated passive posting cycle. But the option sleeve receives zero reasoning across w3–w6: no pricing check, no explicit deferral decision, no hedge logic. This looks like systematic LLM deprioritization of the

intent 1791 resolves (ownIntentResolved fills or expires)

Primary counterparty (3 of 5 recent deals, 119 lifetime). Currently holds live sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVDA, implied 204.7 USDC/sNVDA

Natural demand-side for options option-writer's silent sleeve would produce; 5 lifetime deals but currently starved of new option supply fro

1 settled deal; also accumulates sNVDA/sAAPL but stacker-massimo's newMatches() blind-spot may prevent it from seeing 1791 as a takeable int

active, structurally blind to resting bi

LP-Maker's live sNVDA ask at 204.7 implied is crossed against 1791's 205.0 bid — LP-Maker should take 1791 on its next wake, so this may self-resolve. Structural miss: option-taker-matheus has no new option supply to work with because option-writer's sleeve has been silent for 5 wakes; every wake option-writer skips is a lost deal with its natural counterparty.

Watches intent 1791 via ownIntentResolved — fires on the exact event (fill or expiry), not a blind timer

2h fallback prevents stall if resolution event is missed

60s poll cadence is appropriate for swap settlement

No option-sleeve prompt or label: when 1791 resolves, the next wake LLM has no standing nudge to evaluate option pricing — it has consistently deprioritized the

Change the watcher label to: `intent 1791 resolves — ALSO evaluate option-writing sleeve (silent since w2, 5 wakes)` so the firing context forces the LLM to address both engines, not just the pending swap.

Option sleeve silent for 5 consecutive wakes (30% of mission dormant)

1 ETH call posted w1 (6 USDC, 4% premium, strike 1682), canceled w2. W3–W6 reason exclusively about swaps. W6 had 55+ USDC buffer and no mention of option pricing. LLM systematically deprioritizes options when a swap intent is live.

Add explicit two-engine protocol to CLAUDE.md: 'Each wake: (1) check swap rebalance need, (2) independently check option sleeve — fetch BTC/ETH spot, price a call/put, post if spread is positive. Option check is not optional even if a swap intent is pending.' Wake-script label change above reinforce

Passive stock bids repeatedly expire unfilled (w3/w4/w5); active taking is better

0x68e/0x68f (w3), 0x6b4/0x6b5 (w4), 0x6e2/0x6e3 (w5) all expired without fill. W6 active take of intent 1776 (deal 160) worked where passive posting failed three times. No agent provides consistent stock sell-side, so passive bids are mostly wasted TTL.

Encode active-take preference in CLAUDE.md: 'Before posting a new passive buy intent, scan resting asks within 0.5% of oracle and take the best one directly; only post a passive bid if no resting ask exists.' This mirrors what w6 did successfully.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities. sAAPL exit will expire naturally, returning cash. BTC bet sound, no action warranted.

sAAPL exit intent #1789 fills/expires, or 24h fallback

Summary: Since last run's double-post flag (#1711/#1754), both expired naturally by 17:31–17:33 UTC (1h TTLs). Neither was explicitly cancelled — the agent relied on TTL. w51 (17:20) confirmed exit post 'failed; LP acti...' with sAAPL still held. w54 posted a fresh exit #1789 (18:05 timestamp — NOTE: appears before w52/w53 in the data, likely a display ordering anoma

Agent is alive and watcher correctly re-armed on #1789 (0.085722 sAAPL → 24.96 USDC, 24h fallback); orphaned #1711 resolved by expiry not cancel. sAAPL inventory ($24.96, 28% of $89.97 portfolio) is 53h+ past horizon — 3 exit attempts (#1711, #1754, #1789) all expired or pending unfilled, LP-Maker declined at w51. BTC binary edge computation silently blocked at w53 by missing Polymarket distribution data.

3 lifetime settled deals all vs Mimic-Ljuba (custom live); exit intents #1711, #1754 both expired unfilled; LP-Maker declined at w51 ('Exit post failed; LP acti...'); #1789 open, unfilled; oracle mid $291/sAAPL equivalent finding no taker across 3 attempts

Sound on sAAPL exit: correctly triggering horizon stop and re-posting at oracle mid each cycle. BTC binary reasoning is legitimately blocked by a data gap (not a logic error). However, the double-post root cause (back-to-back wakes both clearing the 'no live exit intent' guard) is unaddressed — if #1789 expires and the watcher fires + an immediate repeat wake occurs, #1789's successor could again

#1789 fill or expiry (ownIntentResolved, 60s poll)

MISSING: explicit cancel/idempotency check for prior exit intents before re-posting (no-cancel-before-repost is the root of the w49/w50 duplicate)

Natural taker for sAAPL→USDC at oracle mid; 119 lifetime deals, inventory depth; but declined at w51 — pricing or inventory management misma

Sole settled counterparty (3 custom-live deals); no confirmed sAAPL demand; unlikely to take a swap exit

sAAPL accumulator by mission; could take the sell side if priced within ~1% of oracle, but Stacker's watcher misses resting asks

BTC binary opportunity potentially missed at w53 — Polymarket distribution data unavailable blocked edge calculation entirely; unmeasurable without the poll completing

Monitors the correct current intent (#1789) via ownIntentResolved — no more #1754 blind spot

60s poll cadence appropriate for 1h exit intents

24h fallback (nextFallbackMin 1437) prevents permanent orphaning

Zero-LLM, deterministic — fires on resolution event, not book state

No idempotency check before arming: if #1789 expires and a new wake re-posts immediately, the w49/w50 double-post pattern can recur

No opportunity scan during the wait — agent could detect Polymarket-priced binary mispricings while holding the exit

Before armWatcher fires, check for any live exit intent with matching parameters and skip re-post if one exists — eliminates the double-post race without changing cadence

Double-post exit logic — duplicate exit intents on consecutive wakes

w49 posted #1711 and w50 posted #1754 (same 0.085722 sAAPL → 24.96 USDC) 1 min apart; both expired unfilled; now replaced by #1789 via the same unguarded mechanism — root cause unpatched

Add idempotency check in CLAUDE.md exit logic: query live intents before posting; if an exit intent with matching give-asset and give-amount already exists on-chain, monitor it rather than re-posting

sAAPL stranded 53h+ past horizon — 3 exit attempts at oracle mid, all expired/pending

28% of portfolio locked in sAAPL ($24.96); oracle mid pricing ($291/sAAPL equivalent) not clearing vs LP-Maker across #1711, #1754, #1789; no price concession mechanism

After 2+ failed exit attempts at oracle mid, CLAUDE.md should allow a small concession (e.g. −0.5% → 24.83 USDC) to incentivize LP-Maker fill; log as 'slippage exit' vs 'oracle exit'

Polymarket distribution data unavailability silently blocks binary edge at w53

w53: 'BTC binary edge requires distribution data (need poll-polyma...)' — entire binary opportunity scan skipped when poll unavailable; agent has no fallback or logged skip

SDK: make poll-polymarket non-blocking with a short-TTL cache; on miss, agent logs 'binary: skipped, no market data' and continues rather than silently dropping the analysis

w54 timestamp anomaly (18:05) precedes w52 (19:32) and w53 (20:00) in data

Wake numbers imply w54 is most recent, but its timestamp is 18:05 — 1h27m before w53 at 20:00; watcher source confirms #1789 is current, so w54 is likely last; display ordering or timestamp recording bug

Audit wake-log timestamp recording in the agent's state persistence; ensure wake timestamps are written at wake-start not at some earlier trigger time

Rebalancer-Lior

Correct plan (trim sMSFT → DCA BTC) requires US market open for stock oracle to be live. Waiting.

Monday 2026-06-16T13:30Z stock open -- trim sMSFT, DCA BTC

Summary: Unchanged since prior summary: correctly armed and waiting for Monday 06-16T13:30Z US stock open to execute sMSFT trim (+1.63pp → USDC → BTC DCA -1.61pp). w47 (06-14T13:46Z, now 264 min ago) remains the last wake — 65 more minutes have elapsed since Step-1 with zero new activity, as expected. nextFallbackMin: 2660 arithmetically confirms fallback lands ≈ 06-

Alive and correctly idle. Poll loop (5-min cadence) will fire within 5 min of 13:30Z Monday open; fallback at 14:30Z (6.5 h before market close) is tight enough for a retry if trim fails at open. LP-Maker sNVDA/sAAPL asks do not match rebalancer's current gap vector (sMSFT sell → BTC buy). Only real risk: if the watcher process (pidAlive: true) dies over the 48h weekend, the Monday wake silently drops — no external watchdog re-arms it.

US stock oracle offline until 06-16T13:30Z; agent correctly deferred at w47. No infra fault, no toolchain block, no counterparty issue.

Sound, solving the right problem. w47 correctly identifies sMSFT as the only actionable gap, defers to market open, and sMSFT approval was proactively secured at w46. 49 repeat wakes are all legitimate holds, not churn — the deferral condition is real.

Poll: Date.now() >= 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z checked every 5 min — fires within one 5-min interval of open

Fallback: 2026-06-16T14:30:00Z hardcoded at arm-time (nextFallbackMin: 2660 confirms alignment)

Filled rebalancer's BTC DCA (#1294 at +4% premium) and ETH (#1156); 11 open intents, deep inventory — most likely counterparty for Monday BT

none — LP-Maker's sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVDA) is wrong direction for rebalancer's current gaps; rebalancer needs to sell sMSFT, not buy sNVDA/sAAPL. No sMSFT bids visible on book to sell into pre-market.

Poll fires within 5 min of 13:30Z — no meaningful execution slippage

FALLBACK_MS computed from fixed 14:30Z UTC at arm-time — immune to accumulated clock drift

Zero-LLM watcher, fallback present, cadence matches patient DCA mission; 14:30Z fallback leaves 6.5 h of market hours for a retry

Process-local only: if pidAlive flips false over the 48h weekend, both the poll loop and the fallback die with the process — no external watchdog re-arms

Fallback is 60 min after open; a tighter gap (e.g., 13:45Z) would give a faster second attempt if the 13:30Z trim fails without waiting until 14:30Z

Platform-level: persist the MARKET_OPEN_MS target to data/wake/ so a fresh process boot auto-re-arms from the last committed wake-script — eliminating the silent weekend-death miss risk.

No external watchdog: process death over 48h weekend silently drops Monday wake

The watcher PID is written to data/wake/current.pid and both the poll loop and fallback live in that process. If the process dies before 06-16T13:30Z, watcher.armed flips false and the Monday trim is missed with no alert. nextFallbackMin: 2660 is only valid while pidAlive: true.

Add a watchdog cron (fleet-level) that detects pidAlive=false and re-arms the watcher from the last wake-script, OR persist the target timestamp to data/ so a fresh boot can self-re-arm without human intervention.

Stacker-Massimo

No sell-side in book; bid 1599 within drift threshold; nothing to do.

intent 1599 fill/expiry | sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC | oracle drift >0.5%

Summary: newMatches() blind-spot confirmed active again — LP-Maker's sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVDA, 12m TTL) was posted AFTER w41 (17:58) yet BEFORE watcher reseeded; with 35m remaining on the fallback when the ask had ≤12m left at Step-1 time (~7min ago), the ask has almost certainly already expired unfilled. This is not a delay — it's a permanent structural m

LP-Maker's live sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVDA, ~$204.73 implied) posted after w41 — watcher's seenIntents seeded it at arm time so newMatches() never fires; with 35m left on the fallback vs ≤12m TTL on the ask, the fallback arrives ~23m after expiry. Permanent miss, 6th time structurally reproduced. Fix is one line: replace newMatches() with a full-scan every poll.

current.ts lines 55–58: seenIntents seeded on first loop; newMatches() fires only on net-new intentIds. w41 log: 'No sell-side in book' at 17:58 — LP-Maker ask arrived after w41 but before or at watcher seed. Step-1 reports ask with 12m TTL ~7min ago; fallback has 35m remaining → miss is permanent.

Wake LLM reasoning is sound and on-mission — w37 correctly identified and took intent 1640 at ≤oracle×1.01, settling deal 153. The problem is entirely in the watcher: the LLM never gets a chance to reason about pre-seed resting asks because the watcher never fires.

intent 1599 resolved (filled/expired) — ownIntentResolved()

oracle drift >0.5% from hardcoded ORACLE_BASE $205.10

NEW post-seed sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC via newMatches()

45-min fallback (35m remaining this cycle)

MISSING: full-scan every poll for ANY resting takeable sNVDA sell regardless of arrival time

3 of 4 logged deals; live sNVDA ask on book right now; dominant and reliable counterparty

active — live ask, likely expiring immin

1 settled deal; episodically posts sNVDA during portfolio rebalancing

2 open intents flagged expired/uncertain

could post sNVDA sells during rotation; not yet confirmed as counterparty

LP-Maker live ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVDA, ≤$204.73 implied price, within oracle×1.01) — posted after w41, seeded into seenIntents at watcher arm, permanently invisible to trigger 3. With 35m fallback remaining vs ≤12m TTL at Step-1 time (~7min ago), ask has almost certainly expired unfilled. Structural miss, same pattern as w38.

ownIntentResolved() correctly monitors bid 1599 — fills/expiry trigger immediate wake

oracle drift >0.5% trigger correctly catches price moves that shift takeable range

isTakeableSnvdaSell() logic is correct: checks posterGives=sNVDA, costUsdc ≤12, impliedPrice ≤oracle×1.01

60s poll cadence appropriate — sub-minute but not spammy for a ~10 USDC taker

trigger 3 uses newMatches() with seenIntents seeded on first poll — silently absorbs any ask resting at arm time

for short-TTL asks (≤12m), 45-min fallback fires after expiry — blind-spot produces permanent misses, not just delays

ORACLE_BASE hardcoded to $205.10 at script-write time — becomes stale if oracle has moved since w41 posted bid 1599; drift trigger threshold shifts silently

Replace trigger 3 entirely: remove seenIntents / newMatches(); instead run `if (intents.some(i => isTakeableSnvdaSell(i, oracleNow))) fireWake(...)` every poll iteration. Catches pre-seed and post-seed resting asks equally; no structural bl

newMatches() blind-spot: pre-seed resting asks permanently missed on short TTLs

current.ts trigger 3 seeds seenIntents on first loop iteration (line 55–58); any ask already on-book at that moment is silently skipped. For short-TTL asks (LP-Maker's current 12m ask), the 45-min fallback fires ~33m after expiry — miss is permanent. This cycle: LP-Maker ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVD

Remove newMatches()/seenIntents from trigger 3. Replace with: `if (intents.some(i => isTakeableSnvdaSell(i, oracleNow))) fireWake(`takeable sNVDA sell on book`);` — runs every 60s poll, zero blind-spot.

ORACLE_BASE hardcoded at script-write time — stale after price moves

ORACLE_BASE = 205.10 is embedded in the script at the time the LLM writes current.ts. If sNVDA oracle has moved since bid 1599 was posted, the drift trigger fires at wrong thresholds. Low severity vs the newMatches issue but causes ghost fires.

Fetch live oracle on first poll and use that as the baseline, or pass current oracle price as an arm-time env var that the watcher reads rather than hardcoding.

Swing-Nikita

Summary: Prior summary placed BTC gap-to-trigger at ~$708 at w37 (spot ~$63,909 vs baseline 64163.20; 1.5% requires ~$962 deviation, only ~$254 seen). Now 78 min post-w37: spot still ~$63,909 — gap unchanged at ~$708, no narrowing. Stocks closed all day Sunday (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT gated), SSV still zero inventory (blocked since at least w30). LP-Maker's sNVDA ask is ir

BTC is -0.40% below baseline 64163.20 at ~$63,909 — gap-to-trigger unchanged at ~$708 since w37 78 min ago. Stocks gated (Sunday), SSV inventory-blocked. ETH (baseline 1663.44, trigger ~$1,638) is the sole unconstrained live trigger; its current price is not in this snapshot. Agent is ALIVE, armed, 45 min to next fallback — correctly waiting in a flat market.

BTC deviation -0.40% vs 1.5% threshold (need drop to ~$63,201 from ~$63,909). Stocks gated by isUsMarketHours() Sunday. SSV zero inventory documented w30–w33, still blocked. No dislocation on any asset across w34–w37 (4 consecutive no-trade wakes since session restart).

Sound and on-mission. w37 correctly computed no asset ≥1.5% dislocated. Trailing-baseline approach (regenerated each wake from fresh scan) is correct for mean-reversion: slow drift updates the baseline, so only sudden moves trigger — not gradual decay. The agent is not re-deriving the same wrong move; it's correctly standing down. Right problem, right logic.

≥1.5% deviation from trailing avg on any active asset (60s poll)

MISSING: If SSV crosses 1.5% the watcher fires, but zero inventory causes immediate abort — wasted wake and tokens with no possible trade

Both recent settled deals cleared via LP-Maker; 11 open intents across swap pairs; dominant hub for delivered swaps

Active — 119 lifetime deals, 11 open int

DCA via delivered swaps — could cross swing if rebalancing same assets in opposite direction on a dislocation day

none — no asset crossed 1.5% dislocation threshold across w34–w37; stocks closed Sunday; SSV inventory-blocked regardless of price. LP-Maker's live sNVDA ask is a stock, gated today.

Baselines regenerated each wake from fresh price scan — trailing average stays current without LLM involvement

isUsMarketHours() gate correctly prevents Sunday triggers on sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT

2h fallback ensures re-check even in flat markets; cadence appropriate for a patient mean-reversion agent

Zero-LLM watcher with clean threshold math; can't spuriously fire on 'book non-empty'

SSV included in 60s poll loop despite zero inventory since w30 — any SSV dislocation fires a wake that immediately aborts

ETH is the only unconstrained live trigger (baseline 1663.44, buy at ~$1,638) but its proximity to threshold is invisible in status logs

Guard SSV in the poll loop with an inventory pre-check (or remove it from BASELINES until restocked): `if (sym === 'SSV' && knownZeroInventory) continue;` — prevents wasted wakes that always abort with 'SSV blocked by zero inventory', confi

SSV zero-inventory wake waste — 6+ wakes affected

SSV has had zero inventory since at least w30 (documented in every wake log w30–w33, and blocked again at the structural level). The watcher still polls SSV every 60s. If SSV drops 1.5% the watcher fires a full wake that immediately aborts: 'SSV blocked by zero inventory'. Pattern confirmed across 6

Remove SSV from BASELINES in current.ts until inventory is replenished, or add a lightweight inventory check inside the loop before the price read. Agent CLAUDE.md should document the re-stocking trigger (e.g., receive SSV from another agent or direct deposit).

Vulture-Andrew

Too early after wake 135: no rivals cleared, no new edges. One deliberate move per wake — correct move was to wait.

15 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781463902; next poll 80s

Summary: LP-Maker compressed spreads further to 0.22-0.35% this cycle (from 1.31% last run), widening the gap vs Vulture's 1% floor and making all 7 maker positions structurally uncompetitive. Wakes w117-w120 correctly cleared stale/undercut quotes (4 buys requoted, SSV 1685 cancelled after rival 1704 appeared at 0.35%), and w121-w124 found 0 takeable/0 mirrorable ed

Vulture is healthy (0 wake errors, correct cancel/requote discipline, concurrent-duplicate handled in w124), but LP-Maker's 0.22-0.35% structurally undercuts Vulture's 1% floor across all 7 assets and 0 takeable edges have appeared for 4 straight wakes (w121-w124). With $0.40 realized PnL vs $101.07 lifetime token cost, the burn-to-edge ratio demands a pivot — either lower the maker floor below 0.5% or shift maker volume to instruments LP-Maker doesn't cover.

0 takeable/0 mirrorable w121-w124; rivals at 0.22-0.35% (w123) vs Vulture 1% floor; 5 sells + 5 buys open across sAAPL/sMSFT/ETH/BTC/SSV with no takers; recent settled: 4 deals ↔ LP-Maker, 1 ↔ Momentum-Nikita

Sound and on-mission: correctly running scan-edges + check-my-quotes each wake, canceling undercut positions (w120: rival 1704 at 0.35% vs Vulture 1685 at 1.91% → cancelled/reposted), handled concurrent-wake collision (w124 cancelled duplicate 1724). The loop is well-executed but solving the right problem against the wrong constraint — LP-Maker's floor renders Vulture's 1% floor non-competitive re

new takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges every 30s)

~5 min pre-expiry of soonest open intent

quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: binary near-decided / approaching-resolution trigger

4/5 recent deals ↔ LP-Maker; but direction unclear — if LP-Maker is taker on Vulture's maker intents, Vulture may be mispriced in LP-Maker's

ok — dominant hub, 14/16 recent fleet de

1 recent swap deal; rotates across same asset universe Vulture covers

DCA swaps in same assets; could take Vulture's maker bids on rebalance slices

Crypto-down taker; ETH/BTC sell bids Vulture posts align if BTC conviction fires

none confirmed — scan-edges returned 0 takeable w121-w124; no binary near-decided events surfaced in any wake; LP-Maker's 0.22-0.35% is too tight to mirror profitably at 1% floor

30s token-free polling via scan-edges + check-my-quotes — correct zero-LLM loop for a reactive taker/maker hybrid

Pre-seeded honeypot IDs (779/836/869) prevent watcher from re-firing on confirmed bad intents

Pre-expiry trigger preserves book presence around intent TTL windows

check-my-quotes cancelCmds correctly fired in w120 catching SSV undercut before agent woke

No binary near-decided / approaching-resolution scan — Vulture's mission explicitly covers near-decided binaries but the watcher has no specific trigger for the

1% edge floor hardcoded; with LP-Maker at 0.22-0.35%, Vulture's maker intents will structurally never attract organic takers on shared instruments

Add a binary near-decided check to the 30s poll (e.g., scan-edges reporting binaries within N% of strike expiry) with a fireWake trigger — this is Vulture's differentiated edge vs LP-Maker, which doesn't compete in binary resolution events.

Maker floor 1% vs LP-Maker 0.22-0.35% — structurally uncompetitive on all 7 shared assets

LP-Maker compressed from 1.31% (last cycle) to 0.22-0.35% this cycle. Vulture's 1% floor is 3-4x LP-Maker's tightest spread on identical instruments. No taker will prefer Vulture's 1% over LP-Maker's 0.35%. Result: 0 maker fills in w121-w124 despite 10-11 live intents.

Lower maker floor to <0.5% to compete, OR restrict maker intents to instruments LP-Maker doesn't quote (binary bets, options, index baskets) where 1% may be competitive.

4/5 recent deals ↔ LP-Maker — direction unverified, adverse selection risk

If LP-Maker is taking Vulture's maker quotes (not vice versa), LP-Maker sees edge in them — Vulture's oracle pricing may lag LP-Maker's real-time feed. Requires inspecting deal maker/taker sides in settled_deals_detail.

Check deal direction for the 4 LP-Maker trades; if LP-Maker is consistently taker-side on Vulture intents, Vulture's oracle reference is stale relative to LP-Maker's and needs a tighter price source.

Binary near-decided path has no watcher trigger

Vulture's mission includes 'near-decided binaries' but w121-w124 show only swap scanning; no binary expiry events fired wakes. Vulture relies on 2h fallback or accidental quote-erosion path to catch approaching binary resolutions — potentially missing its highest-edge category.

Extend scan-edges output to flag binaries approaching resolution (e.g., <5% from strike with <2h TTL), and add a fireWake trigger in the watcher when one appears.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

HUB ACTIVE; OPTION SLEEVE DARK

LP-Maker (ask) ⇄ Stacker-Massimo / Option-Writer / Arb-Hunter (bids)

Active but Stacker blind-spot permanently misses LP-Maker resting asks seeded af

LP-Maker (two-sided) ⇄ Vulture / Polymarket (asks, undercut)

LP-Maker dominant at 0.22–0.35%; Vulture 1% floor structurally uncompetitive; Po

LP-Maker (swap, two-sided) ⇄ Bear-Yosher / Arb-Hunter / Mimic-Ljuba

Swap active; binary thawing — deal #159 live (bear-yosher #1786 at $64,500 vs mi

LP-Maker (two-sided) ⇄ Arb-Hunter (taker)

Thin; last deal #156 (+109bps); oracle near-mid post-deal, arb-hunter correctly

Deferred — stock oracle offline until Mon 06-16T13:30Z; rebalancer armed (fallba

Option-Writer (supply) ⇄ Option-Taker (demand) via 0x57F8

FROZEN — writer off-mission (0 option intents w3–w6); taker AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HAS

Option-Writer stopped posting options after w3 (off-mission — 1 option intent in 6 wakes; swap engine took over)

Option-Taker has zero supply; 0 new option deals since w33 despite being alive and awake

option-writer: only 0x6e2/0x6e3 at w1 (expired unfilled); option-taker w33 logged 'Zero audited Option intents found; only Swaps and unknown custom deals'

Option-Taker AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH mismatch — can't decode option-writer's intent format

Even if option-writer resumes, taker won't see new intents; two independent faults compound to zero option throughput

option-taker w33 logged 'Zero audited Option intents found' while 0x6e2/0x6e3 were live on book with >0m TTL; both expired unseen; all 5 lifetime deals are with 0x57F8 (pre-existing counterparty)

LP-Maker compressed spreads to 0.22–0.35% across all pairs (sAAPL/sMSFT/ETH/BTC/SSV)

Vulture's 1% floor structurally uncompetitive across entire book; all 7 Vulture maker positions undercut; 0 takeable/0 m

LP-Maker 0.22–0.35% confirmed w123; Vulture 1% floor; 4 open Vulture intents on book unfilled; 42 lifetime deals but recent deal rate stalled

Stacker-Massimo newMatches() seeds seenIntents once at watcher startup — not per-wake

LP-Maker's sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVDA, 12m TTL) posted after w41 seed point expired unfilled — structural perma

w41 log 'No sell-side in book' at 17:58; ask confirmed live at Step-1 time with 12m TTL; fallback 35m remaining → ask expired before next wake

Polymarket-Ljuba's sole reliable taker (Mimic-Ljuba) occupied in live binary deal #159 with bear-yosher

sAAPL exit intent #1789 (0.085722 sAAPL → 24.96 USDC, 38m left) will expire unfilled; LP-Maker declined ('Exit post fail

All 3 polymarket lifetime settled deals vs Mimic-Ljuba; Mimic now in deal #159 (BTC binary, expiry 06-15T17:59Z); #1789 open on book

BTC $63,909 persistently 1.66%+ below bear-yosher's original $65k strike

Arb-hunter binary fills structurally blocked (cexTakerInMoney=false, margin -1.93% at w231); bear-yosher correctly adapt

arb-hunter w231 margin -1.93% (worse than -1.49% at w226); bear-yosher anchors #1626/#1674/#1713/#1757 all expired unfilled at $65k; #1786 at $64,500 filled immediately (deal #159)

IndexBasket market offline — 35 null cycles, never provisioned

index-maker and index-taker both address=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 tokens; entire IndexBasket segment has never run

Both agents: address=null, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0 — 35th consecutive null cycle

Provision both sides simultaneously — assign wallets, deploy wake scripts, seed initial config; two-sided bootstrapping required; deploying one without the other leaves the market unfillable

Option sleeve dark — writer off-mission AND taker template-blocked

Two independent faults compound to zero option throughput: (1) option-writer posted 0 option intents in wakes w3–w6, drifting to swap-only mode; (2) option-taker AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH mismatch blocks all option-writer intent decoding. Fixing only one fault leaves the sleeve frozen.

option-writer: 0x6e2/0x6e3 only option intents (w1, expired); option-taker w33: 'Zero audited Option intents found; only Swaps and unknown custom deals' while 0x6e2/0x6e3 were live; 0 option deals in current session

Fix option-taker AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH decoder first (immediate unblock); then restore option-writer's TTL-expiry → re-post cycle for option intents (w3+ gap)

Stacker-Massimo permanent blind-spot misses all LP-Maker resting asks

newMatches() seeds seenIntents once at watcher startup; any LP-Maker ask posted after seed time is permanently invisible until watcher restart. LP-Maker's sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVDA, 12m TTL posted after w41) confirmed expired unfilled this cycle.

w41 log 'No sell-side in book' at 17:58; ask live at Step-1 with 12m TTL; fallback 35m remaining → miss permanent. LP-Maker posts and refreshes asks regularly; every new cluster post is a miss.

Re-seed seenIntents from live book on each wake iteration (not once at startup); or remove the newMatches filter entirely and scan the full book each wake

Vulture structurally undercut by LP-Maker spread compression

LP-Maker at 0.22–0.35% across all pairs; Vulture's 1% floor uncompetitive on every instrument; 0 takeable/0 mirrorable in 4 consecutive wakes (w121–w124). Vulture's taker leg also dry. Recent deals exclusively via LP-Maker taking Vulture's (infrequent) underpriced inventory.

LP-Maker 0.22–0.35% confirmed w123; Vulture 1% floor hardcoded; 4 open Vulture intents on book unfilled; 0 mirrorable edges found w121–w124

Lower Vulture's competitive floor, or add LP-Maker as an explicit take target when Vulture's inventory is off-target and LP-Maker is offering within Vulture's acceptable rate

Polymarket exit stalled — sole taker Mimic-Ljuba occupied in live deal

3 unfilled sAAPL exit attempts (#1711 expired, #1754 expired, #1789 open 38m); all 3 prior lifetime deals vs Mimic-Ljuba exclusively; Mimic now in live deal #159 (BTC binary, expiry 06-15T17:59Z); LP-Maker declined; #1789 fallback 1421m. sAAPL price drift accumulates during delay.

polymarket 3 settled deals all vs Mimic-Ljuba; Mimic in deal #159 with bear-yosher; LP-Maker logged 'Exit post failed; LP acti...' at w51; #1789 on book (0.085722 sAAPL → 24.96 USDC)

Add LP-Maker as explicit secondary exit taker in polymarket-ljuba CLAUDE.md; single-counterparty dependency on Mimic-Ljuba is a structural failure mode when Mimic is occupied

Binary thawing — bear-yosher strike adaptation succeeded

4 anchors at $65k expired unfilled (BTC 1.61–4.28% below strike). Bear-yosher tightened to $64,500 → #1786 filled immediately (deal #159, mimic-ljuba, +8pp edge, expiry 06-15T17:59Z). Arb-hunter correctly idle (cexTakerInMoney=false, margin -1.93%).

deal #159 live bear-yosher #1786 vs mimic-ljuba; prior anchors #1626/#1674/#1713/#1757 all expired; arb-hunter w231 BTC $63,909 vs $65k strike, -1.93% margin

No action needed — adaptive strike mechanism functioning correctly; monitor deal #159 expiry at 06-15T17:59Z

Provision index-maker and index-taker simultaneously — 35 null cycles; assign wallets and deploy wake scripts for both; IndexBasket market requires two-sided bootstrapping to function at all

Fix option-taker AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH decoder to recognize current option-writer intent format — this single fix unblocks the taker immediately and is prerequisite to restoring option-writer posting

Fix stacker-massimo newMatches() to re-seed seenIntents from live book on each wake, not once at startup — current logic permanently misses every LP-Maker ask posted after watcher initialization

Restore option-writer's option posting cadence — add TTL-expiry → re-post cycle; agent has been swap-only since w3, leaving option-taker starved of supply

Add LP-Maker as secondary exit taker in polymarket-ljuba CLAUDE.md to eliminate single-counterparty (Mimic-Ljuba) dependency; evaluate lowering Vulture's 1% floor to compete with LP-Maker's 0.22–0.35% spreads

Same structural read as last run — LP-Maker remains the dominant clearing hub (119 lifetime deals, 11 open, 16 of the last 16 swap deals route through it); binary market still frozen with BTC ~$63,909 sitting 1.66% below bear-yosher's $65k strike and arb-hunter finding no binary fills; new this cycl

Binary market frozen for multiple consecutive cycles: BTC ~$63,909 vs $65k strike; 0 binary deals in last 16 settled; bear-yosher re-posted #1757, arb-hunter 0 binary fills

Option-Writer's 2 open intents (0x6e2/0x6e3) show 0m remaining — expired unfilled or just settled? Option sleeve still silent across 4+ wakes

Stacker-Massimo structural blind-spot: LP-Maker has live sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVDA, 12m left) on the book right now; newMatches() misses pre-seed resting asks

Polymarket-ljuba orphaned intent #1711 (0.085722 sAAPL → 24.96 USDC) unmonitored — watcher only tracks #1754; double-post from w49/w50 unresolved

Vulture-Andrew structurally uncompetitive: LP-Maker spreads 0.22–0.35% vs Vulture's 1% floor; 4 open intents on book but maker positions undercut; 42 lifetime deals but recent deal rate unclear

Index market: 34th+ null cycle for both index-maker and index-taker — fully offline, zero provisioning signal

BTC dropped from $64,129 to ~$63,909 since last summary — did any live binary's margin/expiry bars clear this cycle? Did arb-hunter take any of the live Vulture/LP-Maker swap positions (SSV, ETH, BTC visible on book), or is it still swap-fa

Is intent #1757 (ABOVE $65k, TTL ~17:53 UTC) still open with BTC at $63,909 (~$1,091 below strike)? Has BTC moved toward or away from $65k since re-post, and is there any signal of a ABOVE-side taker appearing?

Any provisioning signal this cycle — wallet assigned, config file, env var, or watcher armed? If still null (would be 34th consecutive), confirm and close.

Any provisioning signal this cycle — wallet assigned, config file, env var, or watcher armed? If still null (would be 35th consecutive), confirm and close.

Post-Cluster-X renewal: did oracle drift trigger another renewal this cycle, or did the cluster hold? With LP-Maker's sNVDA ask (12 USDC, 12m left) and sAAPL/sMSFT asks live, did Stacker-Massimo or any other agent fill them, or are they exp

Is the binary board still empty (no new BinaryBets to mirror or accept since #154 loss settled)? Did the [object Object] rendering bug surface again in recent wakes, and is the 59-min fallback the only thing keeping it alive?

Has the SSV-vs-sNVDA gap moved since w36's 0.521pp reading — closer to or further from the 2pp rotation threshold? Has the 20:00 UTC market-close trigger fired yet (it was ~2h30min out at last summary)?

The 3 recent custom deals (0x57F8↔Option-Taker) — are these new since last summary (w33 at 17:31) or pre-existing? Are option-writer's 0x6e2/0x6e3 (now at 0m TTL) within option-taker's take criteria, or did the TTL expire before it could ac

Both open intents show 0m remaining — did 0x6e2/0x6e3 expire unfilled or settle? Did w6+ generate any repriced replacements? Is the option sleeve (0 intents since w2 cancellation) showing any signs of activating?

Woke 7min ago (most recent wake) — did it detect or cancel the orphaned #1711 sAAPL exit (0.085722 sAAPL → 24.96 USDC, unmonitored since w49)? Did it post any new intents, or is it still in the 23.7h wait on #1754?

sMSFT trim is the critical path for Monday 06-16T13:30Z — is the watcher fallback at 06-16T14:30Z tight enough, or could the trim miss the window? Are there any LP-Maker sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks in the current open book that rebalancer could

LP-Maker has a live sNVDA ask right now (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVDA, 12m left) — did stacker's wake 4min ago see and take it, or did the newMatches() blind-spot cause another miss? Is the 42-min fallback the only path to catching pre-seed res

BTC spot is ~$63,909 — has the gap to swing's breach threshold narrowed further from the ~$708 reading at w37? Did any of the current LP-Maker or Vulture open positions (SSV, ETH, sMSFT, sAAPL) cross swing's dislocation threshold?

With LP-Maker spreads at 0.22–0.35% vs Vulture's 1% floor, are all 4 open intents (BTC, SSV, sMSFT, sAAPL on book) structurally uncompetitive? Did Vulture find any takeable edge in Stacker's sNVDA bid or Option-Writer's expiring intents, or

stacker-massimo: Fix newMatches() blind-spot — seed seenIntents BEFORE scanning the current book so resting LP-Maker asks (sNVDA ask live right now, 12m left) are not silently skipped until the 45-min

polymarket-ljuba: Cancel or reconcile orphaned intent #1711 (0.085722 sAAPL → 24.96 USDC) — watcher blind to it; risk of double-fill if a taker hits both #1711 and #1754

option-writer-matheus: Confirm whether 0x6e2/0x6e3 expired or settled, then diagnose why the option sleeve has posted 0 intents since w2 — if the option engine is silently blocked, this is a toolchain

Binary market frozen multiple cycles: BTC at $63,909 vs $65k strike — consider whether a binary at a lower strike (e.g. $63k or $64k) would attract an ABOVE-side taker; current strike selection is str

Index market offline 34+ cycles with no provisioning signal — either provision index-maker/index-taker wallets or formally decommission to stop polluting fleet health metrics