account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary bet has taker side in CEX money. No new intents on book. All USDC-payable swaps priced at taker loss.

new intent on book; bet #32 near expiry if BTC > $64k (30-min fallback)

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — watcher process did not survive W11 (06-08T19:49); no rearm in 589min; pattern identical to 8/9 other dead agents (SDK epidemic). No agent-side logic fault detected in active wakes.

New intent appears on book (any template)

Bet #32 enters 30-min expiry window AND BTC CEX ≥ $64,320 — NOW DEAD: bet #32 expiryUnix ~1781020800 has passed

30-min hard fallback — only surviving trigger if process were alive

Only confirmed counterparty (W4 deal); posts stale/edge swaps arb-hunter can take as pure taker

Posts near-decided options arb-hunter could take if CEX-confirmed ITM, but W10 logged 'Option template not in mission' — agent may lack Opti

Maker of BinaryBets arb-hunter could theoretically take, but bear-yosher is itself dead (654min)

30-min fallback cadence matches binary bet windows (30–60min typical) — correct for this mission

CEX price check gated strictly to the 30-min expiry window — avoids wasting calls

Baseline 'seen' set on first tick prevents firing on already-known intents

4s CEX timeout with AbortController — robust against hung feeds

new-intent trigger covers the swap-snipe fallback surface cleanly

ANCHORS hard-coded from W11 scan — bet #32 expiryUnix now past, CEX-trigger path permanently dead until next wake rewrites the script

No dynamic bet-scan in the watcher itself — ANCHORS go stale across every crash/recovery cycle

No guard: if ANCHORS is empty (all expired), script silently falls back to only new-intent + 30-min fallback with no log warning

SDK epidemic kill — watcher process does not survive wake exit

armed=false, pidAlive=false, 589min since last wake — identical signature to 8 other dead agents. Platform is not re-launching watchers after agent exits.

Fleet-wide SDK fix: ensure watcher process is re-spawned or kept alive independently of the agent wake process.

Stale ANCHORS — bet #32 expired, CEX-trigger path dead

Current wake script has bet #32 at expiryUnix ≈1781020800 which has now passed. Even on cold restart, trigger #2 will never fire; agent will only wake on new intents or 30-min fallback, missing any near-decided binaries on the book.

Rewrite watcher to scan open BinaryBet intents dynamically at startup and build ANCHORS from live data rather than hard-coding from the last wake's scan.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Summary: 716min crashed (+60min from 656min, sixth consecutive +60/cycle decay, SDK epidemic confirmed). BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba still shows 'live' — not settled or resolved this cycle. ETH at ~$1,651 is ~$32 below the $1,682.93 baseline, placing the BELOW bet directionally in-the-money by ~1.9%; realized PnL -$2.36 reflects the swap leg (LP-Maker-Matheus) only. Inte

Bear-Yosher has been crashed 716min (SDK epidemic, armed=false/pidAlive=false); its only active position — a BELOW bet against Mimic-Ljuba — is currently ~1.9% in-the-money with ETH at ~$1,651 vs $1,682.93 baseline, but remains unresolved ('live'). Intent 48 is off the book; watcher would fire immediately on recovery.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; 716min with zero self-recovery across six cycles; matches SDK epidemic pattern in 8/12 agents

Single wake (06-08T18:42) was on-mission and sound: SHORT thesis intact, posted BELOW bet (intent 48), started sNVDA basket. Sound reasoning solving the right problem — execution fully blocked by platform crash since.

Intent 48 resolution (filled or expired)

ETH adverse move >= +1.5% from $1,682.93 baseline

New tech-stock sell intent (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT posterGives)

MISSING: BTC adverse price trigger (mission explicitly shorts BTC, watcher only watches ETH)

Active live BinaryBet relationship; Mimic-Ljuba's mission is to accept winnable open bets re-priced to oracle — natural BELOW-bet counterpar

Already settled a swap; provides swap liquidity for stock-basket DCA legs

Stock-basket component (sNVDA) could cross with option-writer's stock intents if they post sNVDA

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book while crashed since 06-08T18:42

Intent-48 resolution trigger ensures immediate wake when the BELOW bet settles or expires — and since open_intents=0, fires on first loop pass after recovery

ETH +1.5% adverse circuit-breaker is proportionate for a bear-thesis agent holding a BELOW position

Tech-sell intent scanner directly supports the stock-basket DCA mission (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

4h hard fallback prevents indefinite silence; zero-LLM poll; correct structure

No BTC adverse price monitor — mission explicitly shorts BTC/ETH but only ETH is guarded

Intent 48 is already off the book (open_intents=0); on recovery the watcher correctly fires immediately, but there is no awareness that the BinaryBet is now 'li

Add a BTC adverse move trigger mirroring the ETH check (+1.5% from a BTC baseline captured at w1) so both legs of the SHORT thesis have a circuit-breaker

SDK epidemic: watcher cannot re-arm

armed=false/pidAlive=false for 716min; same crash pattern as 8/12 agents; 4h fallback never fired because the process died before it could

Identify and fix the SDK process crash preventing watcher re-arm; this is the single blocker for all affected agents including Bear-Yosher

BTC not monitored despite being in mission

Mission says 'Short ETH/BTC by default'; wake script only checks ETH price for adverse moves; a BTC rally against the short thesis would go undetected until the 4h fallback

Add BTC adverse move check (+1.5% from a BTC baseline logged at wake time) alongside the existing ETH check in current.ts

Live BinaryBet unmonitored — expiry unknown

BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba is 'live' with no visible expiry in the data; if the bet expires unfavorably while crashed, agent misses the settlement and the -$2.36 realized PnL deepens without any responsive action

On next wake, log the BinaryBet expiry timestamp and add an expiry-proximity trigger (fire N minutes before expiry) to the watcher so the agent can act before outcome is locked

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

302 free option (urgent). 303 near-free-option below floor. 300 above cap. 290-298 expiring. Oracle fell $3.99 ETH and $

304 resolves or new plain-swap (25min fallback)

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

deal #3 expires OR new ≥3pp BinaryBet appears (or 24h fallback)

Summary: Complete reversal from prior summary: agent went from dead (0 wakes, armed=false, null script) to 7 wakes and 1 settled deal (Deal #3, BinaryBet ↔ Bear-Yosher) this cycle. Initialized, operational, and holding an active position. However, the pricing logic uses a hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 flat prior — the agent took the 'above $65k in 24h' side when BTC oracle

Agent is live (7 wakes, 1 deal, armed, pid alive) — a full reversal from last run. Deal #3's claimed +22pp edge is likely illusory: FAIR_PROB is hardcoded at 0.5 regardless of oracle distance, so every out-of-the-money binary looks like an edge. The one realized deal may be a losing position.

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own text), yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM.

Sound discipline (one-deliberate-move rule, hold rather than churn, waits for expiry signal) — but solving the wrong problem. The edge gate uses a 50/50 flat prior for a clearly directional binary, so it will systematically take deep-OTM positions and call them profitable. The reasoning is coherent but the pricing model is wrong.

Deal #3 expiry at DEAL_EXPIRY_TS (2026-06-09T14:10Z)

New BinaryBet on book with takerEdgePp ≥ 3pp (vs flat FAIR_PROB=0.5)

MISSING: oracle-adjusted fair probability — watcher fires on 'edge vs 0.5' not 'edge vs calibrated prob'

Already traded (Deal #3); posts BTC directional BinaryBets that mimic-ljuba takes; missions complement

Both trade BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba also posts small-shade binaries mimic-ljuba could mirror

Picks off mispriced bets; could take mimic-ljuba's self-posted directional intents

Posts Options, not BinaryBets — different template, no structural overlap

None identifiable from current data — watcher is reading the live book and evaluating new BinaryBets each loop. However, the flat-prior edge filter may have passed bad intents (like Deal #3) while the oracle-calibrated filter would have blocked them. Missed opportunities on the downside (bad bets accepted) are more likely than missed good ones.

Hardcodes DEAL_ID + DEAL_EXPIRY_TS — correct single-deal tracking pattern

Fires on deal expiry OR new high-edge bet — dual trigger fits hold-then-rotate mission

newMatches() pattern avoids re-evaluating already-seen intents

24h fallback is proportionate to deal horizon

FAIR_PROB=0.5 is hardcoded flat prior — correct only for a coin-flip binary; any bet with a known oracle price has a non-flat fair distribution

No oracle-distance calibration: takerEdgePp = (0.5 - takerProb)*100 will mark any bet where taker puts up <50% as 'edge', including deep OTM positions

Edge floor of 3pp vs wrong fair value gives a false gate

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with an oracle-calibrated fair probability: read the current oracle price and the bet's strike/direction, compute fair prob via a simple log-normal or historical vol estimate, then derive takerEdgePp against that. One

Flat FAIR_PROB=0.5 invalidates edge calculations for directional binaries

hasEdge() uses (0.5 - takerProb)*100 as edge. For a BTC above $65k bet with oracle at $63,383, true fair prob is ~12–18%; the flat prior makes the bet look like +32–38pp edge when true edge may be negative. Deal #3 was likely taken at negative EV.

Read oracle price + bet strike + direction in the wake loop; compute fair prob via historical vol (e.g., 80% annualized → ~15% daily σ → lognormal CDF for strike distance); use that as FAIR_PROB instead of 0.5. Can be inlined in hasEdge() with a belt.tools.readOracle call.

Self-posted intent (w1) untracked by watcher

w1 posted a directional BTC bet as maker; the watcher only monitors Deal #3 expiry and incoming taker opportunities — no monitoring of whether the self-posted intent got filled or expired.

After each self-post, store the intentId in watcher state and add a fireWake trigger when that intent settles or expires.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

No trade signal. ETH edges BTC but not by enough to clear the 2pp threshold. Building price history.

Summary: Major positive shift: after 10 consecutive dead cycles, w2 fired 06-09T06:27 (~12.7h after w1 — well past the 4h fallback, suggesting external restart). W2 correctly found no signal ('ETH edges BTC but not by enough to clear the 2pp threshold'), took no on-chain action, and — crucially — successfully re-armed the watcher (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallb

W2 produced no intent (correct — no asset crossed the 2pp momentum threshold), but the critical win is watcher re-armed successfully for the first time. Watcher fires on >3% move in BTC/ETH/SSV from frozen w1 baselines, or in 240min. Baseline staleness (ETH already -2.4% from baseline) is the live risk — one small ETH dip fires a spurious wake.

Only 2 lifetime wakes; w2 found ETH<2pp ahead of BTC, correctly suppressed intent. No momentum signal exists at current prices (BTC +0.08%, ETH -2.4% vs w1 baselines). Crash gap of ~13h (vs 4h fallback) implies prior watcher arm failed after w1 — now resolved.

Sound and on-mission for w2: agent correctly applied the 2pp relative-momentum threshold and stood down. No churn, no phantom signal. The only concern is the wake-script baseline is frozen at w1 prices, so it measures drift from 13h ago, not fresh acceleration — the agent may wake on stale signal.

BTC/ETH/SSV moves >3% from FROZEN w1 baseline (BTC=63405, ETH=1691.58, SSV=2.07)

MISSING: baseline does not reset to current prices after each wake — ETH already at -2.4% from baseline, one small additional drop fires watcher on a non-event

Natural swap taker; filled Intent #28; active BTC swap open (0.0002 BTC → 12.7038 USDC, ~29min left) that momentum-nikita could take if BTC

Fades dislocations — would be on opposite side of a momentum move, creating natural crossing opportunity

DCA swap poster could cross momentum swaps if assets overlap

LP-Maker-Matheus's open BTC swap (0.0002 BTC → 12.7038 USDC, 29min left) is a potential taker opportunity if BTC momentum signal clears — but w2 found no signal, so passing it was correct given current prices. No intents mispriced or missed.

Fires on >3% crypto move — meaningful signal for a momentum hunter

4h fallback prevents indefinite sleep in flat market

Zero-LLM, price-feed driven — fast and cheap

Armed correctly after w2 for the first time

Baseline prices frozen at w1 values (06-08T17:47, ~13h ago) — measures accumulated drift, not fresh acceleration; ETH already at -2.4% so watcher is hair-trigge

3% absolute-move threshold not coordinated with agent's 2pp relative-ranking threshold — could fire wake when agent will still stand down

Reset BASELINE to current prices at end of each wake (write to watcher state file), so the 3% trigger measures moves since last decision, not since first boot.

Stale baseline prices in wake script

BASELINE is hardcoded to w1 prices (BTC=63405.17, ETH=1691.58). ETH is already -2.4% from that baseline at current prices (~1651). One more small ETH dip fires the watcher even though nothing momentum-worthy is happening.

After each wake, write current prices to a state file and load them as baseline in current.ts so the 3% threshold measures fresh acceleration, not historical drift.

Wake threshold misaligned with action threshold

Wake script triggers on 3% absolute move; agent's ranking logic requires 2pp relative lead. A 3% BTC move with ETH also up 2.5% would fire the watcher but produce no action — wasted wake.

Consider waking on relative spread between assets (e.g., one asset >2pp ahead of others) rather than absolute single-asset move, to better match the action condition.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: 19th consecutive dead cycle — zero state change. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, $0.15 lifetime (bootstrap only). Option-Writer posted 5 options with 0 fills; this agent cannot observe or act on any of them — no watcher exists. The ETH call cited last run ($1,688.45 strike) is OTM vs current ETH ~$1,6

This agent has never executed a single wake. wake_script_source=null means no watcher process was ever deployed — this is a launch failure, not a crash. Option-Writer's 5 posted intents (0 fills) have no taker-side participant at all; the option market is frozen not from mispricing but from a missing counterparty that was never initialized.

wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null across 19 cycles; $0.15 lifetime spend is bootstrap initialization only — no agent logic has ever run

Unmeasurable — agent has never run; no reasoning to evaluate. The prior cycle's ETH call opportunity ($1,688.45 strike, ETH now ~$1,651) was OTM and off-mission for a taker buying ITM options, so even a live agent would correctly pass; the structural absence is the only real issue.

MISSING: no wake script deployed (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

MISSING: no book-watch trigger for Option-Writer intents

sole option writer in fleet; 5 posted intents, 0 fills — directly needs this taker

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (wake_script_source=null). ETH call from last run ($1,688.45 strike) is OTM vs ETH ~$1,651 — off-mission regardless. No ITM options verifiably available this cycle from data provided.

wake_script_source is null — no watcher exists at all

no fallback cadence to periodically scan Option-Writer's book

Deploy a watcher that polls Option-Writer-Matheus's live intents, filters for options where spot price is ITM by at least the premium paid, and fires the agent; add a 30–60min fallback timer so it self-heals if the event stream misses a pos

Agent never deployed — wake script missing

wake_script_source=null across all 19 cycles. This is not a crash — the watcher process was never created. No bootstrap, no arms, no fallback.

Write and deploy current.ts for option-taker-matheus; at minimum a fallback timer (30–60min) scanning Option-Writer's posted intents for ITM opportunities at current oracle price.

Option engine bilaterally frozen

Option-Writer-Matheus has posted 5 intents with 0 fills across the full history. With option-taker-matheus never started, there is no demand side. The option market cannot clear until the taker is live.

Prioritize launching option-taker-matheus before writing additional options; a writer with no structural taker burns posting gas indefinitely.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Market signal: 6 consecutive rejections of premium options (near-money, ATM, cheap, dear, short-term, long-term) means t

market calm — fire at 13:30 UTC (~8h fallback)

Summary: Swap engine steady: 12/12 settled deals with LP-Maker, $16.99 PnL — unchanged since last summary. Option engine: 6th intent posted at W20 (0x11d — ETH ATM call, 6hr term, 3% premium, strike $1,688.45) but W21 snapshot (1 min later) shows open_intents=0, suggesting silent post failure or immediate expiry. Key delta: W21 explicitly paused ENGINE 1 after diagno

Option writing sleeve is structurally frozen — 0/6 fills across all pricing/term permutations — because there is no option buyer in the fleet (Option-Taker-Matheus: $0.15 lifetime spend, null last_wake). The agent correctly paused ENGINE 1 at W21 but attributes failure to market timing rather than counterparty starvation. Swap engine ($16.99 PnL, 12 deals) is healthy; the 30% sleeve is dead weight until the taker side exists.

Option-Taker-Matheus: 0 settled deals, null last_wake, $0.15 lifetime spend (fleet roster). Intents 0xd5, 0xe6, 0xf3, 258, 272, 0x11d — six successive fills at 4.4%→2.6%→2.0%→2.0%→3.0%→3.0% across OTM puts, ATM puts, ATM calls, 1.5hr/4hr/6hr terms — zero takers. No other fleet agent has an option-bu

Sound execution, wrong diagnosis. The ladder repricing sequence (W14–W20) was disciplined — methodically eliminating price and term as variables. W21's ENGINE 1 pause shows self-awareness. But the agent frames it as 'market not ready' rather than 'no counterparty exists.' This is solving the wrong problem: no amount of repricing or term adjustment will fill options when the only designed taker (Op

~30min periodic timer (avg_gap_min=30, consistent across 21 wakes)

MISSING: no trigger on Option-Taker-Matheus coming alive — if the taker revives, this agent won't know to re-arm ENGINE 1 faster

Sole swap counterparty; all 12 settled deals; liquid and reliable

Designed option buyer; mission explicitly targets options written by other agents

unknown — null last_wake, $0.15 lifetime

Mission includes buying mispriced Options against Polymarket distribution; could theoretically take an ETH option if pricing is compelling

None for options — no buyers exist. LP-Maker's BTC swap (0.0002 BTC → 12.7038 USDC, 29min left per Step-1) is a taker opportunity, but W21 confirmed holdings optimal (no portfolio drift), so passing is correct per mission.

30min cadence appropriate for option writing + portfolio rebalancing (not a latency-sensitive mission)

Wakes deterministically check portfolio drift and option intent state — zero LLM in the trigger

Self-correcting: agent updated state.json at W21 to pause ENGINE 1, so next wake won't burn collateral on a dead market

No reactivity to Option-Taker-Matheus reviving — fixed 30min poll means up to 30min lag before ENGINE 1 re-engages if the taker comes alive

wake_script_source=null so watcher internals can't be verified directly; nextFallbackMin=null is unusual (no fallback scheduled) though armed+pidAlive confirms

Add a lightweight check in the watcher: if Engine 1 is paused AND Option-Taker-Matheus has posted a new intent or woken since last check, shorten next wake to 5min and re-arm ENGINE 1. This makes recovery from counterparty starvation automa

Option-Taker-Matheus never operational — option market has no demand side

6 option intents (0xd5, 0xe6, 0xf3, 258, 272, 0x11d) across all price/term permutations have 0 fills. Option-Taker-Matheus: null last_wake, $0.15 lifetime spend, 0 deals. Without a functioning taker, the option sleeve (30% of this agent's mission) is permanently dead regardless of pricing.

Diagnose and revive Option-Taker-Matheus — it is the only designed counterparty. Until it's operational, option-writer's ENGINE 1 pausing (W21) is the correct interim behavior.

Root-cause misattribution: 'market not ready' vs 'taker absent'

W21 state.json pause cites '6 consecutive rejections' as evidence market isn't ready, implying it will retry later. The actual blocker is structural: no buyer exists in the fleet. The agent will resume ENGINE 1 eventually and re-burn collateral on the same 0-fill loop unless it understands the depen

Add to agent CLAUDE.md: 'Option ENGINE 1 is blocked if Option-Taker-Matheus has 0 lifetime deals or null last_wake — log this as counterparty-absent, not market-timing, and do not resume until the taker is confirmed active.'

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Highest-edge near-even maker candidate: ETH$1700 Jun9 edge=10.3%, $124k liquidity. Shade 60.3%-1.5%=58.8%. Exposure $10+

intent#32 or #89 fills/expires, or new takeable BinaryBet/Option on book (fallback June 9 20:00 UTC)

Summary: ARMED and consistent: nextFallbackMin=802 (down from 862 last run, ~60min elapsed — pacing confirmed). Last wake was 06-08T20:01 UTC (~637 min ago), both posts complete. Intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 61.7%) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 58.8%) remain unfilled; both ITM at current prices (BTC $63,457, ETH $1,651) — rational takers structurally absent. 0xF57a Perpetual in open

Agent is alive and correctly waiting. Both maker bets are ITM so no rational taker exists; the ~637-min silent stretch is expected posting-and-wait behavior, not stall. The only live action point is the pre-expiry trigger at 15:55 UTC today; if oracle confirms ITM at that moment the agent should settle and collect.

Intent #32 posted at 61.7% (BTC<$64k; oracle $63,457 — bet winning). Intent #89 posted at 58.8% (ETH<$1700; oracle $1,651 — bet winning). A taker must bet the opposite side: BTC>$64k or ETH>$1700 with prices already below strike. 0 takers in 563+ min is the rational outcome, not agent failure.

Sound and on-mission. Two wakes produced two distinct, well-priced BinaryBet posts with Polymarket-backed edge calculations ($158k / $124k liquidity cited). No churn: the agent stopped posting after both slots were filled, consistent with its 'make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced' mission clause. The 0xF57a Perpetual is correctly ignored — Perpetuals carry no Polymarket implied-

ownIntentResolved: fires if #32 or #89 fills or expires

preExpireFired: fires at EXPIRY_SEC-300 (15:55 UTC today, ~553 min away)

newMatches: fires if a new Option or BinaryBet appears on book (60s poll)

Fallback: June 9 20:00 UTC (802 min, 4h post-expiry safety net)

MISSING: no trigger if oracle crosses strike intra-period (e.g. BTC bounces above $64k) — agent can't defensively cancel a now-losing maker bet mid-life

Mission includes taking near-decided binaries, but these are near-decided in the poster's favour — arb-hunter would only take if it saw resi

Picks off mispriced bets; these are correctly priced against polymarket, so no edge for vulture as taker.

Mirrors bets in the same direction as poster — wouldn't take the opposing side.

None within mission scope. The 0xF57a Perpetual is out-of-scope by template filter (correct). No new Option or BinaryBet intents appeared on book since wake 2 that would have triggered the newMatches path — or if they did, the watcher's seen-set would have fired it; 0 surprise wakes confirms no new takeable appeared.

Pre-expiry fireWake at EXPIRY_SEC-300 (15:55 UTC) is the critical settlement trigger — well-placed for a time-locked binary position

Fallback at 20:00 UTC (4h post-expiry) gives a recovery window if settlement event is missed

isNewTakeable filter is tight: own-address exclusion + template=Option|BinaryBet only — no false fires from unrelated book activity

seen-set baseline round prevents spurious fires on startup; 60s poll cadence is appropriate for a patient maker mission

No oracle-crossing guard: if BTC spikes above $64k or ETH above $1,700 intra-period, the agent holds a losing maker bet with no cancel trigger until expiry or p

ownIntentResolved relies on belt.tools.readIntent being non-null — no null-guard visible in the loop; a missing tool would silently skip the check

Add an intra-loop oracle check: if readOraclePrice(BTC) > 64000 or readOraclePrice(ETH) > 1700, fireWake('oracle crossed strike — reassess/cancel maker bet'). This is the one gap that could turn a winning position into a locked loss with no

No oracle-crossing cancel trigger

If BTC or ETH moves above its strike before 16:00 UTC expiry, the agent holds an ITM-flipped maker bet with no ability to respond until the pre-expiry wake (up to 5 min before expiry). At $0.10-per-USDC stakes this is low-dollar risk now, but the pattern is fragile.

In the runWatchLoop body, after preExpireFired check, add: fetch oracle prices for BTC and ETH; if either crosses its strike, fireWake with 'oracle crossed — cancel or hedge maker bet' label.

ownIntentResolved null-guard absent

belt.tools.readIntent!.run is called with a non-null assertion. If the tool is unavailable (SDK degradation), the loop throws and the watcher may crash without re-arming.

Wrap both ownIntentResolved calls in try/catch or guard with `if (belt.tools.readIntent)` before calling.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: Still confirmed dead at 798min (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null) — +60min since last run, structurally unchanged. Spread focus: LP-Maker's BTC ask has DROPPED to $63,519 (12.7038 USDC / 0.0002 BTC) from $63,650 last run — a $131 narrowing. But Lior's implied bid is still ~$63,348 (7 USDC / 0.0001105 BTC from the single wake's posted intent)

Rebalancer-Lior has been crashed for 798min with 0 deals, 0 open intents, and $0 lifetime spend. LP-Maker's BTC ask narrowed to $63,519 vs Lior's ~$63,348 implied bid — gap improved from $302 to $171 unfavorable, but the agent is not alive to act on it, and intent #13 (the watcher's sole trigger) shows open_intents=0, meaning it expired without producing a re-arm.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; wake_script hardcodes marketOpenEpochMs = new Date('2026-06-08T17:30:00Z') — that is yesterday (today is 2026-06-09), so msToMarketOpen is negative and the setTimeout never fires; the 4h fallback fired once at last_wake (798min ago) and the

The single wake was sound: identified BTC as most underweight (-35pp), sized a $7 DCA slice, registered agent, posted intent #13. Reasoning quality is fine for one wake. The failure is entirely in the watcher — a stale hardcoded date killed the market-open trigger, and the process died after the 4h fallback without re-arming. Sound reasoning, fatal plumbing.

ownIntentResolved on intent #13 (open_intents=0 — already expired, trigger is moot)

setTimeout for 2026-06-08T17:30:00Z market open — STALE: date was yesterday, msToMarketOpen < 0, setTimeout never set

4h fallback — fired once ~798min ago; process died, no re-arm

MISSING: recurring daily market-open trigger (dynamic next-17:30-UTC, not hardcoded date)

MISSING: re-arm on wake completion so watcher survives deal cycle

Sole liquidity hub; current BTC ask 12.7038 USDC/0.0002 BTC ($63,519 implied) is $171 above Lior's ~$63,348 implied bid — spread narrowed $1

Could post BTC swaps if positioned short, but health=warming and no confirmed active BTC intent

LP-Maker's 29min-left BTC swap (0.0002 BTC → 12.7038 USDC) is the live crossing candidate, but Lior's implied bid ($63,348) is $171 below the ask ($63,519) — no economic cross even if alive. No missed fill this cycle; spread is still unfavorable.

Watches ownIntentResolved on its own posted intent — correct for a DCA agent waiting on settlement

Has a 4h fallback so it doesn't wait forever

Hardcoded stale date ('2026-06-08T17:30:00Z') — market-open trigger is permanently dead on 2026-06-09+

No re-arm after wake completes — process dies and nothing restarts it

MY_INTENT_ID='13' hardcoded — brittle, breaks when intent rotates after expiry

Replace `new Date('2026-06-08T17:30:00Z')` with a dynamic next-17:30-UTC computation (find next future 17:30 UTC, not a fixed past timestamp); also add re-arm on normal exit so the watcher survives the intent→wake→re-post cycle.

Watcher crashed, not re-armed (798min offline)

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Process died after the 4h fallback wake without re-arming. Agent is fully offline.

Restart the watcher manually; then fix wake_script to re-arm itself after each wake and use a dynamic market-open timestamp.

Hardcoded stale market-open date in wake_script

marketOpenEpochMs = new Date('2026-06-08T17:30:00Z') is 24h in the past as of 2026-06-09. msToMarketOpen < 0 → no setTimeout set → that trigger is permanently dead until script is rewritten.

Compute next 17:30 UTC dynamically: find the next future Date object at 17:30 UTC (today or tomorrow), subtract Date.now().

Hardcoded intent ID breaks on intent rotation

MY_INTENT_ID='13' — when intent #13 expires and a new one is posted next wake, the watcher still watches #13 (already closed), so ownIntentResolved fires immediately and triggers redundant wakes or silent misfires.

Write the posted intent ID to a data file on wake and read it back in the watcher, rather than hardcoding.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

No sweepable sell-side sNVDA within 0.5% of oracle. Posted bait bid at oracle×0.99 to attract mean-reverters.

intent 78 resolves / sell-side sNVDA / oracle drift / 16:30 ET fallback

Summary: Now 646min crashed (+60min from 586min — exact SDK epidemic pace, no deviation). Intent #78 remains expired (open_intents=0), settled_deals=0, 0 lifetime token spend. The focus question — whether sNVDA oracle moved to narrow the $1.17 LP-ask/ceiling gap — cannot be answered from available data: the watcher crashed before it could report drift, and no oracle

Stacker has been down 646min (SDK epidemic, armed=false/pidAlive=false), 0 deals ever, 0 token spend lifetime. Even if revived, the structural price gap (LP-Maker ask oracle×1.008 vs stacker ceiling oracle×1.005) blocks all fills, and the hardcoded June 8 afterhours timestamp is now stale — restart would collapse the fallback to 60s and loop trivially.

LP-Maker-Matheus sNVDA ask oracle×1.008 (~$209.97 at last read) exceeds stacker's acceptance ceiling oracle×1.005 (~$208.80); gap ~$1.17 (~3bp in the wrong direction). No other agent posts sNVDA sell-side. Crash is SDK epidemic (armed=false/pidAlive=false) — same as 7/12 fleet agents.

Sound for the mission it's executing, but solving the wrong structural problem: the logic correctly hunts sell-side sNVDA ≤ oracle×1.005, but LP-Maker (the only sNVDA seller) asks oracle×1.008 — the ceiling and the floor never overlap. The bait bid at oracle×0.99 (intent #78) is disciplined but there's no LP-side actor willing to sell at that level. Disciplined loop; wrong market.

new sell-side sNVDA intent ≤ oracle×1.005

fallback at AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 (20:30 UTC June 8 — NOW STALE, ~16h past)

Only sNVDA seller in fleet, but asks oracle×1.008 — 3bp above stacker's hard ceiling oracle×1.005; gap ~$1.17 unbridgeable without ceiling o

None identifiable — no sNVDA sell intents at ≤ oracle×1.005 are known to exist this cycle; watcher blind (crashed) so formally unmeasurable, but structural gap makes any such intent implausible.

Fires on intent resolution (fill/expire) — correct, avoids re-posting over live escrow

Oracle drift trigger (>0.5%) is well-calibrated for a patient agent posting a resting bid

Scans open book for new sell-side sNVDA ≤ oracle×1.005 on each tick — directly mission-aligned

60s poll cadence appropriate for a resting-bid agent

AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 is hardcoded to 20:30 UTC June 8, 2026 — now ~16h in the past; fallbackMs clamps to 60_000ms minimum on restart, producing near-immedia

No logic to update POSTED_ORACLE if intent #78 has expired and agent needs to re-post at current oracle — new wake will re-derive, but watcher will be stale on

Does not fire on LP-Maker-Matheus lowering its sNVDA ask (the one event that could bridge the gap) — only checks new intents, not price changes on existing ones

Replace hardcoded AFTERHOURS_TS with a relative fallback (e.g., `fallbackMs = 30 * 60 * 1000`) so the watcher always arms for 30min ahead regardless of wall-clock date; stale absolute timestamps silently collapse to 60s loops.

SDK epidemic crash — armed=false/pidAlive=false

646min down, same as 7 other agents. Root cause is platform-level; stacker is a victim, not misconfigured.

Fleet-level SDK restart / epidemic fix — not actionable at agent scope.

Hardcoded AFTERHOURS_TS now stale (~16h past)

AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 (20:30 UTC June 8) is in the past. On any restart, `Math.max(60_000, AFTERHOURS_TS*1000 - Date.now())` returns 60_000, so fallbackMs=60_000 — watcher fires after 60s and loops trivially rather than waiting for next session boundary.

Replace `AFTERHOURS_TS` logic with `fallbackMs = 30 * 60 * 1000` (rolling 30min relative fallback). Remove the hardcoded timestamp entirely.

Structural price gap blocks all fills indefinitely

LP-Maker ask oracle×1.008 vs stacker ceiling oracle×1.005 — gap ~$1.17. No other sNVDA seller exists. The oracle would need to move such that LP reprices below oracle×1.005, or stacker's ceiling needs to rise to ≥oracle×1.008.

Either raise stacker's acceptance ceiling to oracle×1.008 (accepting LP's spread) or coordinate with fleet to seed a competing sNVDA seller at a tighter spread. Alternatively, stacker's mission parameters need revisiting if $0 budget deployed is acceptable.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

2/3 samples; need 1 more before any baseline is trusted for trading

Summary: Successfully broke dead cycle: w2 fired 06-09T06:34, collected sample 2/3 for price baseline, and DID re-arm (armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=63). Step-1's re-arm question is resolved — it re-armed; Step-1 data was slightly stale at orient time. w1→w2 gap was ~1020min (17h), anomalously long for a 65min sample task, suggesting prior watcher had a mi

Swing-nikita is alive and progressing. w2 collected sample 2/3; w3 is armed for ~63min from now. The 17h w1→w2 gap is the one anomaly worth auditing — if the prior watcher's fallbackMs was set too long, w4 could recur the same problem once baseline is live.

Warmup phase by design — w2 log: 'need 1 more before any baseline is trusted for trading'. 0 deals expected until 3-sample baseline exists. Anomaly: w1 (06-08T13:23) → w2 (06-09T06:34) = ~1020min for a task expecting ~65min cadence.

Sound for warmup. The agent correctly deferred all trading until baseline is trusted — no churn, no premature posting. The w3 wake script is pure time-based (65min fallback, empty loop body), which is correct for 'collect the third sample.' The critical unknown is what the post-baseline (w4) wake script does — if it reverts to a long timer or fails to implement dislocation-check logic, the 17h gap

Time-based: armWatcher 65min fallback — fires in ~63min to collect sample 3/3

MISSING (post-baseline): dislocation condition (price vs trailing avg threshold) — required in w4 wake script; currently not visible

Primary delivered-swap counterparty; posts near oracle mid — natural fill target once swing-nikita has a baseline and spots a dislocation

Both trade delivered swaps; could cross if portfolio targets diverge from dislocation signals

Trend-follower; could take the other side of a mean-reversion fade if signals align, but missions are naturally opposed

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book during warmup. LP-Maker BTC swap (0.0002 BTC → 12.7038 USDC, ~29min remaining at Step-1 time) could have been a candidate if baseline existed and BTC showed above-average dislocation — cannot confirm without sample data.

Pure time-based during warmup — correct; no condition to evaluate before baseline exists

65min fallback matches cadence needed for sample collection

Zero-LLM, zero book dependency — cheap and safe during warmup

Post-baseline wake logic not yet visible — highest risk point; if w4 is another pure timer, the agent will wake but not actually check for dislocations

No logged metadata on what each 'sample' captures (asset, price, timestamp) — baseline quality opaque from the outside

After w3, the w4 wake script must shift from pure-timer to condition-based: compute trailing avg from 3 samples, poll for price-vs-avg deviation above threshold, and fire immediately on signal rather than waiting another 65min.

17h w1→w2 gap — likely misconfigured fallback in post-w1 watcher

w1 (06-08T13:23) → w2 (06-09T06:34) = ~1020min. The current wake script uses 65min fallback; a 17h gap implies the watcher armed after w1 had a multi-hour fallbackMs or crashed without recovery. If the same bug is in the post-w3 watcher, live trading is delayed another 17h.

After w3 fires, verify w4 arms with a fallback ≤ 90min. Audit the w1 wake script's armWatcher call retroactively to find the mis-set fallbackMs.

Post-baseline (w4) wake script is the critical unknown

All actual mission value depends on the w4 script correctly implementing dislocation detection. Currently 0 of the mission's logic has been exercised (2 wakes = approval + warmup).

After w3 collects sample 3/3, confirm the new wake script: (a) computes trailing avg from the 3-sample baseline, (b) checks live price vs avg, (c) fires on threshold breach rather than on pure interval.

Swing-nikita is alive and progressing. w2 collected sample 2/3; w3 is armed for ~63min from now. The 17h w1→w2 gap is the one anomaly worth auditing — if the prior watcher's fallbackMs was set too long, w4 could recur the same problem once baseline is live.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

flat wallet — all tokens at 0, need basket to fund any deal or post bait

16 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1780953888; next poll 75s

Summary: Crash duration now 686min (+60min this cycle vs +120min prior gap — slight deceleration but structurally unchanged). wake_script_source=null confirmed: no watcher exists, no self-restart is possible. All 6 lifetime deals remain the single 06-08T19:12 baited-basket-intent session: posted rebalance-buy intents (8 USDC each across ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

686min crash, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null — there is no watcher process and no scheduled recovery. The LP BTC swap on the book (~0.1% implied edge) does not clear vulture's 'clearly mispriced' bar, and the agent cannot act on it regardless. Only structural fix unblocks this agent.

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; watcher.nextFallbackMin=null. Single lifetime wake at 06-08T19:12 executed successfully (6 LP-Maker fills, $92.39 PnL) but no watcher was set up to restart the agent afterward. 686min of silence follows.

The single observed wake was sound: baited basket buy-intents (8 USDC × 6 assets) is exactly the 'sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins' the mission describes, and LP-Maker filling all 6 confirms the strategy worked. Reasoning was on-mission and produced results. The problem is the absence of any watcher — not bad reasoning during the wake.

MISSING: no watcher exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing fires this agent ever again without manual restart

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

Sole fill counterparty for all 6 lifetime deals; fills baited basket buy intents near oracle mid; currently alive and posting BTC swap

Posts delivered swap intents vulture could theoretically take if mispriced, but rebalancer is itself crashed

Posts swap intents on dislocation fades; brief revival 2min ago but re-crashed immediately

crashed (re-armed=false after 2min wake)

LP BTC swap (0.0002 BTC → 12.7038 USDC, ~29min remaining) implies ~$63,519/BTC vs ~$63,457 market — approximately 0.1% edge, below vulture's 'clearly mispriced' threshold even if online. No other open intents visible that would qualify. Missed-opportunity metric is otherwise unmeasurable: watcher is absent so agent cannot scan the book.

wake_script_source=null — no watcher file exists at all; the agent has no mechanism to wake up, scan for mispricings, or restart after a successful session

No fallback timer; no scheduled cadence; completely dark after the single 06-08T19:12 execution

Create a watcher that polls the live order book on a ~5–15min cadence, flags intents where the implied price deviates >1% from oracle mid or where a binary is >95% decided, and arms a wake with those targets. Include a 60min fallback. This

No watcher exists — agent cannot self-restart

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; nextFallbackMin=null. After a successful single-session execution ($92.39 PnL, 6 deals), the agent went dark because no watcher was initialized. 686min of silence follow.

Write a current.ts watcher for vulture-andrew: poll book every 5–10min for (a) swap intents >1% off oracle mid, (b) binaries >90% decided not yet settled; arm on any match; 60min unconditional fallback. Deploy and verify armed=true.

Baited-intent strategy needs post-fill re-arm logic

The 06-08T19:12 wake posted intents, LP-Maker filled all 6, and the session ended cleanly — but no re-arm followed. A vulture that only wakes once per deployment is not a vulture.

The watcher's post-fill callback (or fallback timer) should re-arm immediately after any fills settle, so the agent can post fresh baited intents in the next book window.

HUB HOLDS, FLEET HOLLOW

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Option-Writer-Matheus (12 deals) · Vulture-Andrew (6) · Bear-Yosher (1) · Arb-Hunter-Tom (1) · Momentum-Nikita (1)

Active but fragile — LP-Maker sole hub, -$59.67 PnL, 12.2% token burn in 5h; all

Polymarket-Ljuba → no takers (2 ITM intents); Mimic-Ljuba ⇄ Bear-Yosher (1 live, unresolved)

Frozen for settlement — #32 BTC<$64k and #89 ETH<$1700 expire 16:00 UTC today (~

Option-Writer-Matheus → 6 intents posted (0xd5, 0xe6, 0xf3, 258, 272, 0x11d); Option-Taker-Matheus → absent

Structurally frozen — Taker never initialized (0 wakes, wake_script_source=null)

0xF57a (external, 5+5 USDC, 3615min) → no fleet coverage

Open, unclaimed; no fleet agent targets perpetuals

SDK epidemic crashes 8/12 watcher processes

LP-Maker-Matheus becomes the sole reliable hub; 25/25 settled deals are swaps through one agent; all other markets (opti

arb-hunter-tom 589min dead, bear-yosher 716min, rebalancer-lior 798min, stacker-massimo 646min, vulture-andrew 686min — all armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null; 16/16 entries in recent-dea

Option-Taker-Matheus never initialized (wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0.15 lifetime)

Option engine produces zero fills; Option-Writer burns tokens posting 6 successive unfillable intents (0xd5→0x11d) and c

Option-Taker: $0.15 lifetime spend (bootstrap only), 0 wakes ever; 6 intents posted at 2.0–4.4% premium across OTM puts/ATM calls with 0% fill rate; W21 explicit ENGINE 1 pause log

Rebalancer-Lior hardcodes stale date new Date('2026-06-08T17:30:00Z') (yesterday)

msToMarketOpen is negative today; setTimeout trigger misfires; 4h fallback fired once 798min ago and could not re-arm —

798min dead; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; no path to self-recovery; LP-Maker BTC ask at $63,519 (12.7038 USDC/0.0002 BTC) remains uncrossed by the one agent positioned to take it

LP-Maker prices at oracle mid with no spread buffer

Adverse selection: informed takers (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Option-Writer) cross only when they hold edge, leaving LP short the

-$59.67 PnL across 16+ recent deals; $16.83 token burn in 5h = 12.2% of pool; volume increasing this cycle (3 settled vs 2 last), PnL trajectory worsening

Mimic-Ljuba hardcodes FAIR_PROB=0.5 regardless of oracle distance to strike

hasEdge() passes on deep-OTM positions; agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at BTC oracle $63,383 where true fair is ~10–15%;

w5 own text acknowledges true prob ~10-15%; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' as flat-prior artifact; Deal #3 taker-side deep OTM; FAIR_PROB=0.5 confirmed in wake-script

Polymarket-Ljuba ITM bets have rational taker absence; nextFallbackMin=802 fires after expiry at 16:00 UTC

Both bets will expire unfilled — correct market outcome — but the watcher may not wake in time to execute post-expiry se

BTC<$64k oracle $63,457 (ITM $543); ETH<$1700 oracle $1,651 (ITM $49); expiry in ~553min; nextFallbackMin=802 > 553 — fallback fires ~249min late

SDK Watcher Epidemic: 8/12 Agents Dead

arb-hunter-tom (589min), bear-yosher (716min), rebalancer-lior (798min), stacker-massimo (646min), vulture-andrew (686min) all show identical crash signature. option-taker-matheus never started (0 wakes). Momentum-Nikita and Swing-Nikita broke multi-cycle streaks but required anomalously long external gaps (13–17h vs 4h fallback) before revival — suggesting prior watcher arms were silently broken. Only 5 agents operational vs 4 last cyc

8/12 agents armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null; 0 self-recoveries without external restart; momentum-nikita w1→w2 gap ~763min (vs 240min expected); swing-nikita w1→w2 gap ~1020min (vs 65min expected)

Diagnose shared watcher process crash root cause — likely uncaught exception, signal handler gap, or missing process supervisor. Add crash-loop restart with exponential backoff to the watcher runtime. This single fix unblocks ~67% of the fleet.

Option Engine Structurally Frozen — Taker Never Initialized

Option-Writer-Matheus posted 6 intents (OTM puts through ATM calls, 2.0–4.4% premium, 1.5hr–6hr terms) with 0 fills across all. Option-Taker-Matheus: wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, $0.15 lifetime — the designated counterparty does not exist as a running agent. Writer correctly self-paused ENGINE 1 at W21 after diagnosing starvation. Until Taker is initialized, option intents are pure token burn.

Intents 0xd5, 0xe6, 0xf3, 258, 272, 0x11d — 6 successive posts, 0 fills; Option-Taker $0.15 lifetime (bootstrap only); W21 ENGINE 1 pause; no other fleet agent has option-buy capability

Initialize Option-Taker-Matheus: write wake_script, fund watcher, deploy. Until then suspend option posting in Option-Writer to stop token bleed on unfillable intents.

LP-Maker Hub Bleeding PnL — Single Point of Fleet Failure

LP-Maker-Matheus is counterparty in 16/16 recent deals and all 25 settled deals, yet holds -$59.67 PnL. Token burn $16.83 in 5h = 12.2% of pool at current rate. Oracle-mid pricing invites adverse selection. If LP-Maker exhausts its pool or degrades, the entire fleet loses its only swap counterparty and conversion drops to near zero.

-$59.67 PnL; $16.83 / 5h token burn; 3 settled this cycle vs 2 last (volume rising, PnL trajectory worsening); 0 other swap makers in the fleet

Add a positive spread buffer to LP-Maker quotes (e.g., bid at oracle×0.998, ask at oracle×1.002) to recover margin and reduce adverse selection. Monitor PnL per-fill — if Option-Writer and Arb-Hunter are consistently the informed takers, widen against their order flow specificall

Polymarket-Ljuba Settlement Risk — Fallback Fires 249min After Expiry

Both ITM bets (#32 BTC<$64k, #89 ETH<$1700) expire 16:00 UTC today (~553min). nextFallbackMin=802 means the watcher fires ~249min after expiry. If the agent requires an active wake to trigger settlement/claim, it will miss the window. 0 takers is the rational outcome (not agent failure) but post-expiry collection is at risk.

Intent #32 (61.7%, BTC oracle $63,457, ITM $543); Intent #89 (58.8%, ETH oracle $1,651, ITM $49); expiry 553min; nextFallbackMin=802 > 553

Verify agent has explicit post-expiry settlement logic AND that the watcher will wake at or before 16:00 UTC. If nextFallbackMin is not expiry-aware, trigger a manual wake before the window closes today.

Rebalancer-Lior Permanently Blocked by Hardcoded Stale Date

wake_script hardcodes `new Date('2026-06-08T17:30:00Z')` — yesterday. msToMarketOpen is negative, setTimeout fires with negative delay (or not at all). 4h fallback fired once 798min ago; no self-recovery path. LP-Maker's BTC swap (0.0002 BTC → 12.7038 USDC, 20min left) is the exact opportunity Lior exists to take — and it will expire uncrossed.

798min dead; stale date confirmed in wake_script; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; LP-Maker BTC ask $63,519 vs Lior implied bid ~$63,348 (~$171 gap, near-crossable)

Replace hardcoded date with dynamic next-NYSE-open calculation. One-line fix; agent resumes immediately. No structural logic flaw — only this date anchor is broken.

Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 Hardcode Generates Mispriced Positions

Flat 50% prior ignores oracle distance to strike. Took 'above $65k in 24h' at BTC oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own log text); w7 credits '+22pp locked edge' which is a flat-prior artifact. One live losing BinaryBet (↔ Bear-Yosher) locked in. Will systematically take losing taker positions as long as FAIR_PROB=0.5 is in production.

FAIR_PROB=0.5 in wake_script; w5 text: true prob ~10-15%; w7 claims +22pp edge (flat-prior artifact); Deal #3 taker-side deep OTM; Bear-Yosher BinaryBet 'live' not settled

Replace FAIR_PROB with oracle-calibrated probability (strike distance + implied vol, or Polymarket reference price). Pause taker activity until fix is deployed to prevent additional mispriced positions.

Fix SDK watcher crash epidemic — 8/12 agents dead, identical armed=false/pidAlive/null signature, no self-recovery. Root-cause the shared watcher crash (uncaught exception, missing supervisor, signal handler) and add crash-loop restart with backoff. Single highest-leverage fix in

Initialize Option-Taker-Matheus: write wake_script, deploy watcher. Option engine is structurally frozen (6 intents, 0 fills, Writer self-paused). Until Taker is live, suspend new Option-Writer intent posting to stop token bleed on unfillable orders.

Add positive spread buffer to LP-Maker quotes (bid oracle×0.998, ask oracle×1.002). LP-Maker is the fleet's sole hub with -$59.67 PnL and 12.2% token burn rate — adverse selection will exhaust the pool and take the entire fleet offline.

Fix Rebalancer-Lior stale date (new Date('2026-06-08T17:30:00Z') → dynamic next-market-open). One-line change; agent has a live counterparty and zero structural blockers once running. LP-Maker BTC swap expiring in ~20min is the immediate crossing opportunity.

Trigger manual wake for Polymarket-Ljuba before 16:00 UTC today — nextFallbackMin=802 fires 249min after expiry, risking missed settlement on two ITM bets. Verify post-expiry claim logic is present before relying on the watcher.

Marginally better: Momentum-Nikita (last_wake=9min) and Swing-Nikita (last_wake=2min) broke multi-cycle dead streaks, but both re-crashed immediately (armed=false/pidAlive=false); SDK epidemic otherwise structurally unchanged from last run; LP-Maker-Matheus remains sole reliable hub.

SDK epidemic persists: 8/12 agents crashed (armed=false/pidAlive=false); two brief revival wakes (Momentum-Nikita 9min, Swing-Nikita 2min) failed to produce re-arms

Option engine fully frozen: 0/5 fills across Option-Writer-Matheus's posted intents; Option-Taker-Matheus 18 consecutive dead cycles (null last_wake, $0.15 lifetime spend)

Expiry urgency: Polymarket-Ljuba's 2 BinaryBets (BTC<$64k, ETH<$1700) expire in 563min at 16:00 UTC today; both ITM at current prices (BTC ~$63,457, ETH ~$1,651)

LP-Maker BTC swap (0.0002 BTC → 12.7038 USDC, 29min left) is the only near-expiry taker crossing opportunity for any recovering agent

Funnel 8.2% conversion (25/304); all 16 recent deals concentrated in LP-Maker-Matheus as single hub; zero binary settlement this cycle

Crash at 647min (+60min from ~587min last run, clock-exact). With Momentum-Nikita and Swing-Nikita briefly waking this cycle, did arb-hunter show any sign of life, and is LP-Maker's current BTC swap (12.7038 USDC / 0.0002 BTC, 29min left) w

714min crashed (+60min from ~654min). The BinaryBet 'live' with Mimic-Ljuba: has it settled or resolved this cycle, and with ETH now ~$1,651 (below $1,682.93 baseline), what is the directional P&L on that live position?

Last_wake=32min, 24 deals, 1 open intent, armed=false/pidAlive=false (health=ok but not re-armed). BTC swap (0.0002 BTC → 12.7038 USDC) expires in 29min. Did it post new intents this cycle, and is the watcher cycling correctly (wake→act→rea

ALIVE (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=779). Polymarket-Ljuba's two BinaryBets (BTC<$64k, ETH<$1700, 563min to expiry) are in the open book. Has Mimic-Ljuba's watcher assessed them this cycle, and does its hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5

MAJOR CHANGE: last_wake=9min after 10 consecutive dead cycles (was 711min last run). Still armed=false/pidAlive=false, health=warming. Did the wake produce a posted intent or immediate re-crash, and what does the wake script show about why

18th consecutive dead cycle (null last_wake, armed=false/pidAlive=false, $0.15 lifetime). Option-Writer has posted 5 options with 0 fills. Are any Option-Writer option intents currently live in the book (not expired), and does this agent ne

ALIVE (armed=true, pidAlive=true, last_wake=62min). 12 swap deals settled, 0/5 option fills across ladder 4.4%→2.6%→2.0%→2.0%→3.0% ATM. Has it posted a 6th intent this cycle, and has the strategy diagnosis shifted: is it still repricing whe

ALIVE (nextFallbackMin=804, ~60min pacing consistent). Both BinaryBets (BTC<$64k, ETH<$1700) expire in 563min; both ITM. Has it assessed the 0xF57a Perpetual (5+5 USDC, 3625min left) in the open book, and is plan-to-expiry strategy unchange

796min crashed. LP-Maker's current BTC ask is 12.7038 USDC / 0.0002 BTC = $63,519/BTC implied. Prior run showed LP ask ($63,650) exceeding Lior's implied bid (~$63,348) by $302, making spread unfavorable. Has the gap changed this cycle — do

644min crashed (+58min from 586min — SDK epidemic pace). Structural gap: LP ask oracle×1.008 vs Stacker ceiling oracle×1.005 (~$1.17 gap last read). Has the sNVDA oracle price moved this cycle to narrow or widen that gap materially?

MAJOR CHANGE: last_wake=2min after 975min+ dead (7 consecutive dead cycles). Still armed=false/pidAlive=false, health=ok. Did the wake produce any posted intent or meaningful state change, and why didn't it re-arm — is this the same bootstr

684min crashed (+58min from 626min — SDK epidemic pace, slight acceleration). All 6 lifetime deals were passive LP-fill events pre-crash. Is the current LP-Maker BTC swap (12.7038 USDC / 0.0002 BTC, 29min left) mispriced enough to qualify a

SDK epidemic root cause: 8/12 agents crashed (armed=false/pidAlive=false for 600–975+ min); brief wakes by Momentum-Nikita (9min) and Swing-Nikita (2min) both failed to re-arm — investigate the watche

Option-Taker-Matheus: 18 consecutive dead cycles, null last_wake, $0.15 lifetime spend (bootstrap only) — manually restart; it has missed every one of Option-Writer's 5 posted option intents and is th

Polymarket-Ljuba's 2 BinaryBets expire at 16:00 UTC today (563min remaining); both ITM — confirm Mimic-Ljuba's watcher (nextFallbackMin=779) will fire before expiry and that its FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcode

LP-Maker-Matheus BTC swap (0.0002 BTC → 12.7038 USDC) expires in 29min with armed=false/pidAlive=false — if it doesn't re-arm and repost promptly, this BTC liquidity window closes for any recovering t

Option-Writer-Matheus: stop repricing options (0/5 fills across 4.4%→2.6%→2.0%→2.0%→3.0% ladder); buyer absence is the cause, not pricing — hold current pricing and redirect effort to restarting Optio