Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary clears latency bar (0 bets); no swap edge (SSV oracle leads CEX by 23bps but no intent priced above CEX to cap

new mSSV-sell (clip ≤1.7714, implied ≥ ssvCex×1.001) OR binary bet OR 30-min fallback

Summary: Counter remains frozen at 11 — confirmed no new fills through w193–w200 (8 additional consecutive waits, now 35+ total). The 4 LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom entries in the recent-deals feed are pre-existing history; settled_deals_detail shows 8 LP-Maker swaps + 1 Rebalancer-Lior (9 visible) against the reported 11 total, with no increments this cycle. Th

No new fills this cycle; counter at 11 is unchanged and all 4 LP-Maker entries in the feed are pre-existing. All three arb surfaces (binary bets=0, SSV sell-edge dormant, swap book structurally unaffordable) are simultaneously dry — the agent is diagnosing correctly and skipping correctly. At $7.11 lifetime token cost vs $0.36 realized PnL, the cost-to-opportunity ratio is deeply negative, but the dry spell is the market's fault, not the agent's.

w198 explicitly: '0 [binary bets] on book'; w193/w196/w197/w198/w199 all report SSV sell-edge dormant because CEX > oracle (the direction guard is working as intended, not an error); w194/w195/w199/w200 all report swap intents require assets not held or are oversized (mSSV-sell at 6.4× balance in w1

Sound — solving the right problem. Each wake correctly categorises the rejection reason: direction-check vs. balance vs. book-empty vs. taker-negative. The agent is not re-deriving stale conclusions; it is accurately logging distinct blocking signals per wake. The only concern is that this correctness costs $0.58/wake with no fills, but that is a fleet thinness problem, not a reasoning problem.

New intent ID > HIGH_WATER with BINARY_BET_HASHES template hash

New mSSV-sell intent where clip ≤ 1.7714 AND implied ≥ ssvCex×1.001

30-min hard fallback (firing ~every wake given dry book)

8 of 11 settled deals are LP-Maker swaps; active at 102 deals but the swap intents it posts currently require assets arb-hunter-tom doesn't

1 settled deal; posts USDC-denominated swaps arb-hunter-tom can sometimes take, but frequency is low

primary binary bet writer — arb-hunter-tom's highest-value surface — but crashed 992 min ago, book at 0

posts binary bets and sharp swaps; also crashed 793 min ago

None verifiable. Watcher is correctly filtering out WETH/mBTC/stock intents as structurally unaffordable (documented in wake-script comment). SSV direction blocks are correct, not missed. No binary bets on book to take. Cannot rule out sub-30s windows between watcher polls, but no evidence of any.

Binary-bet filter uses exact template hashes — zero false-positive risk

SSV arb fires only on new IDs > HIGH_WATER AND clip ≤ balance AND implied ≥ ssvCex×1.001 — tight, profitable-only trigger

Deliberately skips WETH/mBTC/stocks as structurally unaffordable — correct noise reduction

30-min hard fallback guarantees regular wakes even with dry book

Zero-LLM trigger logic; CEX fetch cached 30s to avoid rate limits

HIGH_WATER is hardcoded at 1353 and must be manually updated each wake — if wake script is redeployed mid-cycle, the baseline resets and stale intents could tri

Watcher cannot detect when a binary bet already on-book (below HIGH_WATER) becomes near-decided due to oracle movement — it only fires on *new* bets; if bear-yo

Add a periodic near-expiry rescan: once every N polls, check all open intents with BINARY_BET_HASHES templates for nearExpiry (≤ NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC) and fire if any cross the bar — this catches oracle-drift opportunities on existing bets witho

Binary bet book empty — primary arb surface dry

bear-yosher (crashed 992 min) and vulture-andrew (crashed 793 min) are the main binary bet writers. With both down, arb-hunter-tom's highest-value surface has had 0 bets across all recent wakes. This is not the agent's fault.

Revive bear-yosher and vulture-andrew — even one live binary bet writer would restore arb-hunter-tom's primary surface.

Token burn rate deeply negative vs realized PnL

$7.11 lifetime token cost vs $0.36 realized PnL across 200 wakes. With 35+ consecutive no-fill wakes at ~$0.58/wake, the agent is burning ~$0.58 per wake to confirm the book is empty. At the 30-min fallback cadence this is ~$28/day with zero fills.

Consider extending fallback to 60–90 min when binary bet book has been empty for N consecutive wakes — reduce idle burn rate without missing opportunities.

HIGH_WATER hardcoded — redeployment risk

HIGH_WATER=1353 is a static constant updated only when wake script is manually edited. On redeployment mid-cycle the value reverts to whatever is in source, potentially re-firing on stale intents.

Persist HIGH_WATER to a state file or derive it dynamically from the max seen intentId on first poll of each process restart.

Bear-Yosher

Exactly-one-resting invariant violated (836 expired). Posted 869 to maintain bear anchor. No BinaryBets available to tak

intent 869 fill/expiry OR new BinaryBet OR ETH/BTC +1.5% OR deal 75 near-expiry OR 4h

Summary: 994 min dark (+54 min vs prior 940 min). Hard crash unchanged: armed=false, pidAlive=false, zero token spend since w41 (Jun 10 11:17 UTC). Settled_deals still 17 — no new settlements. All 3 live deals (1 custom + 2 BinaryBet, all ↔ Mimic-Ljuba) remain 'live'; deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 (~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) is now well past, but crash blocks the agent

No change from last run. 3 live Bear↔Mimic-Ljuba deals (including deal 75, expired >2h ago) remain unsettled because the crashed agent cannot call the settlement function. At w39 BTC was 3.49% below strike — deal 75 was in-the-money; winning proceeds are unclaimed and ~$48–52 USDC remains locked.

armed=false, pidAlive=false since before deal-75 expiry; settled_deals frozen at 17 across consecutive runs; deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed with no settlement call; all 3 live deals ↔ Mimic-Ljuba (health:ok) who as losing counterparty has no incentive to initiate settlement

Last wake (w41) reasoning was sound — it posted intent 869 to maintain the exactly-one-resting invariant, logged deal 75 expiry approach, and armed a well-structured watcher. The problem is the watcher process died shortly after w41 (watcher.pidAlive=false now), so all of that correct reasoning is frozen mid-execution. The agent is not solving the wrong problem; it is simply not running.

Intent 869 fill/expiry (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet on book (newMatches on BINARY_BET_HASH)

Deal 75 near-expiry at epoch 1781139624 - 300s

sole counterparty on all 3 live deals; health:ok and active (16 deals), but as the losing side on in-the-money bets has no incentive to call

could absorb basket swap intents once bear-yosher restarts and recycles locked capital; not relevant to deal settlement

would take near-decided BinaryBets bear-yosher could post once restarted; not useful while crashed

Unmeasurable while crashed — watcher is blind to book. Settlement of deal 75 (in-the-money at w39: BTC 3.49% below strike) is the immediate missed action; each additional minute is unrealized profit sitting unclaimed.

Adverse price triggers (+1.5% ETH/BTC) correctly guard the bear thesis — fires before conviction is invalidated

Deal-75 near-expiry anchor (fire 5 min early) was exactly right for mission: claim settlement promptly

New BinaryBet detection via templateHash is precise — won't fire on irrelevant intents

4h fallback prevents permanent silence if all other triggers miss

Zero-LLM, runWatchLoop pattern is correct

Process is dead — script is irrelevant until agent is restarted

No self-healing: if the process dies, nothing re-arms it; the 4h fallback only helps if the process is alive

After restart, add a platform-level process supervisor (or cron ping) that detects pidAlive=false and auto-relaunches the watcher — the script design is sound but a dead process cannot self-recover.

No process resurrection for crashed watchers

bear-yosher has been dark 994 min. The watcher script is well-designed but a dead process cannot re-arm itself. bear-yosher, stacker-massimo, and vulture-andrew all share this failure mode — three agents dark simultaneously indicates a platform gap, not three independent agent bugs.

Add a fleet-level supervisor (e.g. a cron job or watchdog) that polls pidAlive and auto-relaunches watcher processes that have died.

Deal 75 settlement unclaimed — capital locked

betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed; BTC was 3.49% below strike at w39, making deal 75 in-the-money for bear-yosher. Mimic-Ljuba (losing side) will not self-settle. Capital (~$48–52 USDC) locked in 3 live deals cannot recycle into new positions until settled.

Manual restart of bear-yosher; first action should be to call settlement on deal 75 and the 2 other expired BinaryBets before posting new intents.

Index-Maker

Summary: 20th consecutive null cycle — state is bit-for-bit identical to prior summary, again. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No operator initialization signal detected this cycle. Not a crash; never initialized. index-taker (its only logical counterparty) remains equally uni

Zero change from last run: 0 tokens, 0 wakes, null wake script, watcher fully dark. No wallet provisioning or initialization signal observed. Both index-maker and index-taker remain uninitialized — this market cannot form until an operator provisions both sides.

wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0 — all zero/null for 20 consecutive cycles

No reasoning to evaluate — agent has never woken. The mission (author LONG IndexBasket intents, publish verified source to indexer) is well-scoped in principle, but unreachable until the operator initializes the agent.

MISSING: no wake script loaded — watcher cannot arm without one

MISSING: no wallet address provisioned — agent cannot act even if woken

sole designed counterparty — takes SHORT side of index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents after auditing verified source

also uninitialized (health=unknown, 0 de

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never initialized; no opportunity detection is possible

wake_script_source is null — no watcher script exists at all

Operator must provision a wallet and deploy a wake script before any watcher assessment is meaningful — no script-level fix applies until initialization occurs

Agent never initialized — 20 consecutive null cycles

No wallet address, no wake script, no watcher armed. State has been bit-for-bit identical since first observation. index-taker is equally uninitialized, so even if index-maker were initialized today, it would have zero counterparties.

Operator action required: provision wallet + deploy wake script for both index-maker AND index-taker together — initializing only one half leaves the market frozen

Zero change from last run: 0 tokens, 0 wakes, null wake script, watcher fully dark. No wallet provisioning or initialization signal observed. Both index-maker and index-taker remain uninitialized — this market cannot form until an operator provisions both sides.

Index-Taker

Summary: 20th consecutive null cycle — zero delta vs prior summary. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Focus question answered: no initialization signal, no wallet provisioning, and no IndexBasket intents anywhere in the funnel this cycle. Structurally identical to last run and every run before it; agent and its sole co

20 consecutive null cycles, $0 lifetime spend, 0 wakes. This is not a crash or a wait — the agent has never been started. Its only counterparty (index-maker) is equally uninitialized, so even deployment alone won't produce deals.

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 settled deals, no IndexBasket intents in funnel (~1318+ total intents, 0 IndexBasket)

Unmeasurable — no reasoning has ever executed. The agent has never run a single wake cycle.

MISSING: no wake script deployed — agent cannot fire at all

MISSING: no IndexBasket intents in funnel to react to even if deployed

Sole structural counterparty — posts LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker would SHORT. Also uninitialized.

unknown / uninitialized — health=unknown

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never been deployed; no IndexBasket intents exist in the funnel regardless

No wake script exists at all — wake_script_source=null

No fallback timer, no armed state, no pid

Deploy the agent's current.ts with a cadence-appropriate fallback (e.g. 30–60 min poll for new IndexBasket intents from index-maker); this is a prerequisite for any activity.

Agent never initialized — no wake script, not armed, never run

20 consecutive null cycles. wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0 lifetime tokens. Operator has not deployed this agent.

Deploy index-taker's wake script. Coordinate with index-maker deployment — both must be live for any deal to form.

index-maker (sole counterparty) also uninitialized — joint bootstrap required

index-taker can only trade against index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents. index-maker is also armed=false/pidAlive=false with zero intents posted. Deploying index-taker alone produces nothing.

Bootstrap both index-maker and index-taker together. Index-maker must post at least one IndexBasket intent before index-taker has anything to audit and take.

20 consecutive null cycles, $0 lifetime spend, 0 wakes. This is not a crash or a wait — the agent has never been started. Its only counterparty (index-maker) is equally uninitialized, so even deployment alone won't produce deals.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Cluster D expiry renewal + nonce conflict from parallel TXs forced sequential retry. Duplicate from accidental double-ru

Cluster E pre-expiry ts 1781150508 (~04:01 UTC) or new fillable swap | 1.5h fallback

12/12 quotes posted; 6 active counterparties (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, 0xBd6a…9863, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita); deal velocity limited by taker arrivals not LP quality. w85–w90 show 0 fills across multiple wakes despite tight quotes — thin taker side, not mispricing.

Cluster expiry guard: EXPIRY_FIRE_TS_SEC=1781133228 (~23:18 UTC) fires 5min before #1281–#1286 cluster expires

New fillable swap: newMatches() detects net-new intents where posterWants ∈ HOLD set

MISSING: inversion/spread-check trigger — concurrent-session inversions detected only at next poll (60s lag), causing arb bleed per event

Active arb taker; resurrection confirmed armed=true/pidAlive=true; appears 8× in recent deal list including w84 arb fill

Most frequent recent counterparty (~8 fills in tail); health=stuck but still settling LP intents

5 recent fills but current 4.96 USDC intent is sub-LP-minimum lot — won't clear until lior posts ≥12 USDC

2 recent fills; w23 20 USDC intent on book (18 min left) is above minimum

External wallet; 7 fills in recent tail — reliable taker source outside named fleet

Expiry cluster guard pins exact ts 1781133228 (5min before #1281–#1286 cluster) — no stale quotes

newMatches() on HOLD set: only fires on intents LP can profitably fill, not its own stale posts

60s poll interval — not sub-minute; patient cadence appropriate for 22-min avg gap

No oracle price guards (per playbook rule — avoids loop storms)

50min fallback ensures watcher doesn't go dark between clusters

No spread/inversion check: concurrent-session inversions (flagged w84, w87, w88) are discovered only at next 60s poll tick, allowing ~1min of arb exposure per e

Concurrent-session inversion recurs on every oracle move

w84, w87, w88 all report concurrent session posting inverted bids when oracle moves positive. Each event costs ~$0.076 arb loss plus a cleanup wake. Root: two watcher sessions posting simultaneously create crossed spreads. Watcher detects it reactively at next poll (up to 60s exposure).

Add inversion check in runWatchLoop body: compare own bid vs own ask prices per asset from readOpenIntents; fireWake immediately on cross. Also investigate why two concurrent watcher sessions arise — may need PID lock enforcement in armWatcher.

Token cost critical: $76.51/5h = 53.4% of pool

96 deals settling at $0.82/wake average; 87 wakes × $0.82 ≈ $71 but 5h cost is $76.51 with 80/87 repeat wakes. At this burn rate LP's token pool (~$143 implied at 53.4%) exhausts in ~5h. Repeat-wake rate 92% (80/87) suggests most wakes are maintenance not fills.

Core/SDK: add per-agent token budget cap and alert threshold. Agent-side: w85 correctly no-ops when nothing actionable — ensure repeat-wake suppression logic is consistently applied to avoid unnecessary LLM calls on zero-action wakes.

Mimic-Ljuba

No BinaryBet on board to accept; no recent flow to mirror. Board empty for 10+ consecutive wakes (wakes 57–67). One deli

Summary: Deals locked at 16 — the 3 Bear↔Mimic deals (2× BinaryBet, 1× custom) remain flagged 'live' in the settled_deals_detail, 15h+ post-expiry of deal #75 (epoch 1781139624 ≈ Jun 11 00:58 UTC), with Bear-Yosher crashed 992 min. Capital is locked; oracle auto-settlement was the prior conclusion but these positions have not cleared. Watcher is ARMED (pid alive, fal

No new deals (still 16), no BinaryBet supply for 10+ wakes, and the 3 Bear↔Mimic positions remain 'live' 15h+ post-expiry with Bear-Yosher crashed — the capital-lock has not resolved. Watcher is healthy and will fire in ~11 min, but there is nothing on the board for it to act on.

Bear-Yosher (sole BinaryBet poster, counterparty in all 3 live deals) crashed 992 min ago; 0 BinaryBets on board wakes w57–w70; settled_deals stuck at 16 across at least 2 consecutive runs; 3 live Bear↔Mimic deals unresolved per settled_deals_detail

Sound mission execution — the ≥3pp edge floor and template-hash filter are correct discipline. The right problem is 'find edge in BinaryBets'; the agent is solving exactly that. However, sound reasoning applied to a structurally empty board means it will never trade until supply returns. This is market fault, not agent fault.

New BinaryBet intent appears on board (newMatches filter against BINARY_BET_TEMPLATE hash)

60-min fallback (armed, nextFallbackMin=11)

MISSING: no trigger or check for the 3 capital-locked 'live' Bear↔Mimic deals — watcher has no awareness of stuck positions, so it can't escalate or surface the

Primary BinaryBet poster; all 3 live deals are Bear↔Mimic; no other agent fills this role

CRASHED 992 min, no fallback recovery vi

Takes near-decided binaries, does not post them — cannot supply copy-tradeable BinaryBets

Posts options not BinaryBets; Mimic's mission requires BinaryBet template specifically

Posts sharp/baited intents including binaries per mission — potential BinaryBet supply if uncrashed

None — board has been empty of BinaryBets wakes w57–w70. No takeable intents existed. Mimic cannot copy what is not posted.

newMatches() pattern correctly detects genuinely new intents — cannot false-fire on stale book

Template hash filter (BINARY_BET_TEMPLATE) is exact-match, not broad

60-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient copy-trader

Zero-LLM watcher — pure intent detection, no hallucination risk

Baseline-then-diff pattern prevents replay of already-seen intents on restart

No awareness of the 3 capital-locked live Bear↔Mimic deals — watcher cannot surface or escalate stuck positions

No stock-hours guard in the trigger logic (label mentions it, code does not enforce it — could fire on a stock BinaryBet at 03:00 UTC)

Add a capital-lock check on startup: if any deal with Mimic's address shows 'live' status beyond its expiry epoch, log a warning and optionally fire an escalation wake — the current watcher is blind to 15h-old locked positions and will neve

Expired deals remain 'live' 15h+ post-expiry with counterparty crashed

3 Bear↔Mimic deals (deal #75 expiry epoch 1781139624 ≈ Jun 11 00:58 UTC) still flagged 'live' in settled_deals_detail; Bear-Yosher crashed 992 min. Prior run concluded oracle auto-settlement — but capital has not released across two consecutive observer runs.

Core should expose an oracle-settlement path that does not require the losing-side agent to be alive; verify whether the settle call can be submitted by any party (Mimic itself, or a keeper) and document the mechanism. If it requires Bear-Yosher's action, flag capital as at-risk.

Watcher blind to capital-locked live deals

mimic-ljuba's watcher watches only for new BinaryBets and never checks whether it has unresolved expired positions. The 3 Bear↔Mimic deals have been stuck for 15h with no agent awareness.

On each loop iteration (or at watcher arm time), query Mimic's open/live deals; if any have expiry < now, log the deal IDs and amount locked so a human can intervene or initiate settlement.

Zero BinaryBet supply — sole poster (Bear-Yosher) crashed 992 min

Mimic's deal rate goes to zero whenever Bear-Yosher is down. No other active agent posts BinaryBets. vulture-andrew (crashed 793 min) is the only secondary candidate.

Restore Bear-Yosher or add a second BinaryBet-posting agent; a fleet with one BinaryBet poster and one BinaryBet taker is a single-point-of-failure market.

Momentum-Nikita

All 5 settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus (3), Rebalancer-Lior (1), LP-Maker again (1). Intent #1318 is a resting 25 USDC→11.31 SSV bid waiting for a SSV seller; no SSV sellers currently on book (watcher has not fired on newMatches). Market's fault — not agent's.

intent #1318 resolved (filled or expired via ownIntentResolved poll every 60s)

new SSV seller appears on book (newMatches against isSSVSeller filter)

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (effectiveDeadline = min(8h fallback, US_OPEN_MS))

MISSING: oracle price drift check — if SSV moves >1–2pp from $2.21 since w22, no early re-wake fires; intent silently mispriced until expiry

Sole active hub, 8 open intents, 3 of 5 momentum deals settled here; could hold SSV inventory

Settled 1 swap with momentum-nikita; DCA-style so may periodically give SSV for USDC

Takes SSV intents (buys SSV), doesn't give SSV — opposite direction to intent #1318

Fades dislocations — if SSV is stretched above trailing avg, swing-nikita may sell/give SSV

ownIntentResolved catches fill or expiry without waiting for fallback

newMatches + isSSVSeller filter directly serves the mission (take the next SSV seller)

US market open trigger correct — agent must re-rank with stocks when equities open

effectiveDeadline = min(fallback, US_OPEN_MS) cleanly prevents oversleeping past stocks

60s poll cadence appropriate — not sub-minute spam, actionable on book events

No oracle price drift check: intent #1318 posted at $2.21/SSV 25 min ago with no mechanism to detect SSV moving materially; if SSV is now $2.35, the resting bid

Watcher baseline (seenIntents) is set once at first loop — if watcher restarts mid-session, seenIntents resets and new-seller logic skips one tick

Intent #1318 has no oracle-drift guard

Watcher polls for fill/expiry and new sellers but never compares current SSV oracle price to the posted $2.21 rate. A >1.5% move since w22 (25 min ago) makes the intent silently stale until it expires at ~08:24 UTC or fallback fires at ~08:30 UTC — wasting up to 7.5h of potential re-pricing.

In runWatchLoop body, after fetching belt: fetch SSV oracle price, compute drift from 2.21; if |drift| > 0.015 call fireWake with reason string. One oracle read per 60s loop tick.

seenIntents baseline resets on watcher restart

seenIntents is initialized to null and set on first loop tick. If the process restarts mid-session (as happened at w15), the first tick re-baselines and skips firing on any sellers already on book — a one-tick delay in a fast market.

Persist seenIntents to data/wake/seen-intents.json on each update and reload on startup; fall back to empty set if file missing (fire on all current sellers at first tick, which is acceptable).

Option-Taker-Matheus

new audited Option intent appears OR deals settle window OR 23h fallback

Summary: Holds sNVDA call #118 (strike $203.69, prem $0.25, expiry ~17:37 UTC June 11) and put #119 (strike $201.75, prem $0.23, expiry ~18:31 UTC June 11) — unchanged since w26. Now 201 min since last wake (up from 140 min last run). Watcher armed/pidAlive=true, scanning every 60s; no new audited options on book. Correct behavior: supply from option-writer-matheus i

No new option intents since deal #119 (201 min ago) — the taker is correctly idle. Its 1141-min fallback fires ~45 min before deal #118's MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956), matching the settlement window by design. This is a functioning taker with a quiet supplier, not a broken agent.

All 4 settled deals trace to option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). Writer's nextFallbackMin=1144 confirms ~19h of silence ahead; 0 audited options on book for 201 min. Taker watcher polls every 60s and has not fired — book is genuinely empty.

Sound and on-mission. w25 (call #118): 'cheap optionality, 1.41%-OTM, 23h tail, 20x max pay' — quantitative. w26 (put #119): 'tight-to-the-money, thin premium, volatile sNVDA, 24h tail' — quantitative. No churn; silence between wakes is correct taker discipline when supply is absent.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f…ad63) — detected via 60s poll of open book

Settle window: nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956, ~17:37 UTC June 11 — 5 min before deal #118 expiry)

23h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1141, fires ~16:52 UTC June 11 — ~45 min before settle window)

Sole option supplier; all 4 deals sourced here. Writer is resting (~19h nextFallbackMin=1144) — next posts expected around w27/w28.

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents — could theoretically compete for the same intents, but does not supply options

None. Book has had 0 new audited option intents since w26. Watcher is polling correctly and would fire immediately on any new post.

Fires on new audited-hash option intents — exactly the signal this taker needs; can't fire on generic book activity

Settle-window trigger (MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS) aligns the 23h fallback with deal #118 expiry — agent wakes just before settlement, not randomly

First-poll baseline (seenIntentIds=null guard) prevents false-fires on stale intents already taken

60s cadence appropriate for an option book that posts infrequently

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to deal #118's window. After deals #118/#119 settle, any future deal taken will have a different expiry — the settle-

Replace the hardcoded MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS with a dynamic read of the agent's open deals' earliest expiry (subtract 300s), refreshed each poll loop. This keeps the settle-window trigger accurate after each new take without requiring a manual sc

Hardcoded settle-window timestamp goes stale after new deals

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 targets deal #118's expiry. Once #118/#119 settle and the agent takes a new option (different expiry), this check will never fire (past timestamp) — settle-timing precision is lost for all future deals.

Dynamically derive MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS each poll: read open deals, take min(expiry) - 300s. Store in a variable updated each loop iteration.

Single-supplier dependency on option-writer-matheus

4/4 deals from one counterparty. Writer is in a ~19h rest cycle (nextFallbackMin=1144). If writer crashes or shifts mission, taker has zero supply. No other agent currently posts audited-hash options.

Encourage a second option writer on the same audited template hash, or have option-writer-matheus post smaller batches more frequently so the taker has a steadier flow.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Market bounced crypto from daily lows, but this is normal volatility (< 1% daily move) within expected range. No ranking

Summary: Engine 1 pause extends to w67 (29+ consecutive monitor-only wakes since w38). KEY ESCALATION since last summary: w66 now explicitly logs 'Engine 2 locked' — both engines are dormant simultaneously for the first time. No new options posted or settled (still 17 deals; last custom deal predates w60). Max move confirmed −3.427% in w62; w66–w67 show no deepening

Engine 1 has been paused since w38 (29+ wakes) and Engine 2 is now explicitly locked as of w66 — the agent is at zero activity across both sleeves. 17 settled deals, 0 new since prior summary. The 1% vol threshold has not been breached (max observed move −3.427%) and zero buyer option intents have appeared; the market's calm is the structural cause, not agent logic. Wake script correctly guards both resume conditions.

Engine 2: 7 consecutive unfilled option writes (wakes 26–37) exhausted buyer-demand signal; Option-Taker-Matheus is the only custom-deal counterparty (1 of 17 settled deals) and has not filled since prior summary. Engine 1: market conditions (max move −3.427% < 1% threshold, no ranking rotation) are

Sound and on-mission. The agent is correctly distinguishing its two engine states, citing specific evidence (−3.427%, 7 unfills, 69.6%/30.4% allocation), and holding with discipline. The new 'Engine 2 locked' label in w66 is an appropriate escalation — not churn. Only concern: both engines being dormant simultaneously means the agent is essentially idle until either a vol spike fires or a buyer in

vol spike ≥1% on any of ETH/BTC/sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL vs w67 baseline prices

new open intent with kind='unknown' (proxy for buyer option intent) appearing in the book

MISSING: Engine 2 has no independent resume trigger beyond buyer intent detection — if option intents use a label other than 'unknown', both locks persist silen

Sole Engine 2 counterparty (1 custom deal settled); buys options this agent writes — directly complementary

health ok, 4 deals total, but no fills s

Engine 1 swap counterparty; fills portfolio rebalance swaps when Engine 1 resumes

102 deals, health ok, active hub — ready

Engine 1 swap counterparty (1 settled deal); complementary flows when ranking rotation fires

None identifiable from the book: Engine 1's pause criteria are unmet (no vol ≥1%, no rotation), and Engine 2 requires buyer option intents which have not appeared. The watcher would catch a new buyer intent if it arrives. However, both Option-Taker-Matheus expirations today (sNVDA #118 ~17:37 UTC, put #119 ~18:31 UTC) may create renewed demand for fresh option writes — the watcher is positioned to

Monitors exactly the two Engine 1 resume conditions (vol spike ≥1%, new buyer intent) — precise fit to mission

CUSTOM_DEAL_KIND='unknown' is an explicit workaround acknowledging how options appear in the book — documented intent

Base prices refreshed from w67 baseline — stays current across long idle periods

60s poll with 120-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient contrarian agent

Zero-LLM watcher; fireWake is conditional on real signals, not polling-for-nothing

CUSTOM_DEAL_KIND='unknown' is fragile: if option intents ever receive a proper kind label, the buyer-intent trigger silently fails and Engine 2 stays locked per

No explicit check for Engine 1 resume via ranking rotation (only vol spike and buyer intent) — a rotation event would not fire the watcher unless it also trigge

Add a ranking-rotation check inside the watch loop: compare current Pyth returns for sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT vs the w67 baseline to detect if the worst-2 set has changed — this makes the third Engine 1 resume condition actionable without waiting

Engine 2 lock has no independent resume trigger if buyer intents use a label other than 'unknown'

CUSTOM_DEAL_KIND='unknown' is hardcoded. If the protocol ever labels option intents with a proper kind string, the seenIntentIds check silently misses them and Engine 2 remains locked indefinitely.

Widen the buyer-intent filter: match kind='unknown' OR kind='option' OR kind contains 'call'/'put', or better, filter by the custom judge address instead of kind string — more stable anchor.

Ranking-rotation resume condition not in wake script

Engine 1's third resume condition (ranking rotation) is evaluated by the agent inside the LLM wake, not by the watcher. A rotation event won't fire an early wake — the agent waits up to 120 min before discovering it.

Add a lightweight ranking check inside runWatchLoop using Pyth price deltas to detect worst-2 set changes; fireWake on rotation detection.

Option-Taker-Matheus expirations today create a short window for Engine 2 demand

sNVDA call #118 expires ~17:37 UTC Jun 11, put #119 ~18:31 UTC — both within hours. Post-expiry, Option-Taker-Matheus may seek fresh options. If it posts a new intent, the watcher will catch it. But if Engine 2 stays locked and no intent appears, the window closes with no fills.

No change needed to watcher — it will fire on a new buyer intent. Ensure Engine 2 lock condition is re-evaluated on each 120-min fallback wake, not permanently suppressed.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL position well-anchored within weekly horizon, no exit triggers hit. No new dir

Summary: Holding 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / horizon Jun12 20:00 UTC). Silence extended from 778 min (prior summary) to 832 min — nextFallbackMin 1023→969 confirms exactly ~54 min elapsed since last summary, mechanically consistent. No stop/forward fires across 832 min of 60s polls confirms price has stayed within the $26.41 wide band t

Price confirmed within $277.34–$303.75 for 832 min with no bound fire; nextFallbackMin 1023→969 = 54 min elapsed, mechanically correct. Watcher will trigger at Jun11 20:00 UTC (~969 min) to assess exit before Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon. Only concern is shallow lifetime activity: 2 deals / $0.75 PnL across 26 wakes — the polymarket-comparison mission rarely finds mispriced targets, not an agent bug.

2 settled deals, $0.75 realized PnL across 26 wakes / 11.97 USD lifetime tokens. The polymarket-comparison workflow requires mismatch between on-chain implied probability and Polymarket's distribution — a structural scarcity condition independent of the agent's execution quality. Current hold is the

Sound and on-mission. Wakes w21–w26 consistently report 'no mispriced opportunities / position confirmed held / watcher armed' — this is correct behavior, not churn. The edge erosion narrative (3.1% → 1.5% across wakes w24→w22) reflects genuine distribution convergence as Jun12 horizon approaches, showing the agent understands its own position dynamics. No repeated incorrect moves.

blockchain time >= horizonTs (Jun12 20:00 UTC, read from state.json with hardcoded fallback 1781294400)

new binary/option intent appears on book (Set diff per 60s poll)

FALLBACK: Jun11 20:00 UTC = 1781208000 (~969 min, 24h pre-expiry assessment)

Primary swap exit counterparty — 102 deals, deep inventory, will absorb sAAPL → USDC at oracle mid

Primary source of new binary/option intents for polymarket comparison — writes 70/30 stock+crypto options

DCA swap taker; could overlap on sAAPL exit but mission is portfolio-mix driven, not guaranteed sAAPL demand

Crypto-down / tech-up player — would be counterparty on binary bets but crashed 992 min

crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 99

Unmeasurable from external data — agent's own book-scan (readOpenIntents, polymarket comparison) is the only source. Wakes w19–w25 all report 'no mispriced opportunities'; watcher does scan for new binary/option intents every 60s so reactive coverage exists. Cannot independently verify polymarket implied vs on-chain pricing from this data.

Stop ($277.34) and forward ($303.75) are hardcoded price sentinels — fires immediately on breach, no LLM needed

Horizon expiry read from state.json with correct hardcoded fallback (1781294400 = Jun12 20:00 UTC)

New-intent Set-diff scan correctly catches fresh binary/option postings each 60s poll — right trigger for a taker

Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback (Math.max(..., 4h floor) = 969 min) gives pre-expiry assessment window before Jun12 deadline

60s poll cadence appropriate for price-bound monitoring without being aggressive

After Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback fires, re-arming (if agent decides to hold) will produce a new FALLBACK_MS via Math.max(negative, 4h) = 4h — agent will need to r

After the Jun11 20:00 UTC assessment wake, agent should rewrite watcher with FALLBACK_MS targeting the actual Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon expiry rather than relying on the 4h-floor fallback, to ensure the exit wake is precisely timed rather tha

Post-fallback watcher has imprecise 4h floor deadline

Current FALLBACK_MS = Math.max((1781208000 - now)*1000, 4h). Once Jun11 20:00 UTC passes, all subsequent re-arms fall back to 4h cycles rather than a precise deadline tied to the Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon expiry. In the final 20h window the agent could miss a clean exit window by up to 4h.

In the wake loop's post-assessment re-arm (after Jun11 20:00 UTC fires), rewrite current.ts with FALLBACK_MS computed against 1781294400 (Jun12 20:00 UTC) rather than the stale 1781208000 anchor.

Polymarket-comparison mission structurally starved: bear-yosher (binary writer) crashed 992 min

bear-yosher is a primary source of BELOW-strike binary bets (deals 17) but has been crashed 992 min. With it dark, the on-chain binary supply is thinner and polymarket-ljuba's comparison scan finds fewer candidates. 2 lifetime deals reflects genuine opportunity scarcity, not agent failure.

Revive bear-yosher — it is the highest-leverage recovery for polymarket-ljuba's deal flow. Until then, option-writer-matheus (17 deals, health=ok) remains the primary opportunity source.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC #1294 filled this wake — only discovery action needed. No capital to deploy until stocks open and sMSFT trim generat

US stock open 2026-06-11T13:30 UTC — sMSFT trim + BTC DCA

Summary: Countdown confirmed: nextFallbackMin 663→609 (54 min elapsed since prior summary, 731→663→609 consistent decay). Watcher armed/pidAlive=true — clean live countdown to 14:00 UTC Jun 11 fallback, with 13:30 UTC watch-loop trigger as the preferred earlier path. No new wakes, no capital deployed, 15 settled deals unchanged since w45 BTC #1294 fill. sMSFT approve

Agent is alive and counting down correctly. nextFallbackMin=609 pins the forced fallback to 14:00 UTC Jun 11; the watch loop fires at 13:30 UTC (Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS check every 60s) as the preferred path — both timestamps consistent with current ~03:51 UTC. No capital to deploy: stocks closed, BTC #1294 was the last fill, and sMSFT trim is the unlock event.

Stocks closed; rebalancer's only remaining gap is BTC (-7pp) which requires sMSFT trim to free capital. No available counterparty action until 13:30 UTC open. By design — not a platform or agent fault.

Sound and solving the right problem. w41–w44 showed systematic premium escalation (oracle → +1.47% → +2.07% → +3% → +4%) to attract BTC sellers; w45 confirmed #1294 filled at +4%. Agent correctly diagnosed 'no capital until sMSFT trim' and parked rather than churning.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-11T13:30:00Z (60s poll in runWatchLoop — preferred natural trigger)

Fallback at 2026-06-11T14:00:00Z (FALLBACK_MS computed at script start ≈ 609 min from ~03:51 UTC — confirmed)

4 of last 7 settled deals; primary swap liquidity provider

1 confirmed fill; takes delivered swaps opportunistically

1 confirmed fill; rotates into strong movers via swaps

Fades dislocations — could cross a DCA slice if BTC/sMSFT stretched

None since last summary. Stocks closed; watcher not monitoring live book during the park window — by design for a patient DCA agent. No book-facing check warranted until 13:30 UTC.

STOCK_OPEN_MS = 13:30 UTC is the precise, mission-relevant trigger — fires the wake exactly when the action is possible

FALLBACK_MS computed from 14:00 UTC as a safety net; 30-min window prevents a missed clock edge from stalling the agent indefinitely

Zero LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for waiting on a wall-clock event

Label is explicit: 'sMSFT trim + BTC DCA' — self-documenting intent

FALLBACK_MS is computed once at script start — correct at ~03:51 UTC but if the process were restarted later the fallback would shrink toward 5 min floor (minor

No change needed for this cycle. If the process ever needs a restart, recompute FALLBACK_MS as max(FALLBACK_MS_TARGET - Date.now(), 5*60_000) inside a lazy getter to stay accurate across restarts.

Single reliable counterparty for swap fills

LP-Maker-Matheus provided 4/7 recent fills; if LP-Maker is ever paused, the rebalancer will stall on premium escalation again (as seen in w41–w44 BTC drought). Arb-Hunter-Tom provided 1 fill but counter frozen at 11.

After US open, if sMSFT and BTC slices fail to fill via LP-Maker within one wake, explicitly check Swing-Nikita and Momentum-Nikita order flow as secondary takers — they trade the same assets.

Stacker-Massimo

Bid is tracking oracle correctly (posted at oracle×0.99 when oracle=$207.92; oracle unchanged). No sweepable sell-side.

Summary: Still crashed at 844 min since w27 (Jun 10 12:05 UTC) — +54 min delta vs last run, zero new activity, no operator restart. The wake script (current.ts) hardcodes Jun 10 epochs (MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200, MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000) — both now stale; if the process were restarted today, the first guard `nowSec() >= MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH` fires immediately (

No restart has occurred (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). The entire Jun 10 US session (13:30–16:00 UTC) was missed; Jun 11 is ~7h away and tracking to miss as well. Critically, the live current.ts is not just dead — it is wrong for Jun 11: hardcoded epochs would cause an immediate spurious fire on restart, not a clean market-open wait.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 (Jun 10 13:30 UTC, ~26h past); MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 (Jun 10 20:00 UTC, ~20h past); 0 token spend in last 5h; settled_deals stuck at 2 since w22

Sound reasoning, wrong problem. w27 showed good mission-alignment — it reset consecutive_misses, approved 10 USDC, targeted sNVDA correctly. But the watcher it wrote hardcodes specific calendar epochs rather than computing today's session dynamically. The discipline in the trade logic is real; the fragility is in the epoch-hardcoding pattern, which makes every crash a double failure: process down

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 reached (Jun 10 13:30 UTC) — fired in the past, process was dead before it could trigger

oracle drift >0.5% vs ORACLE_SNVDA_BASE=207.92

new sweepable sNVDA sell-side intent (price ≤ oracle×1.005, cost ≤ 12 USDC)

MISSING: dynamic Jun 11 market-open epoch (script only knows Jun 10)

Primary swap counterparty for USDC→sNVDA at oracle mid; 102 deals, health ok, actively filling during market hours

Could post sNVDA sell-side if rebalancing away from it; 15 deals, health ok

Rotates into/out of assets including sNVDA — could be sell-side if rotating out

Jun 10 US session (13:30–16:00 UTC, ~2.5h window) missed entirely. LP-Maker was active during this period (+6 deals fleet-wide 96→102). At least one 0.50 USDC sNVDA swap intent could have been posted and likely filled. Exact sNVDA sell-side count is unmeasurable (watcher blind to book since crash), but LP-Maker's activity confirms the session was liquid.

Correct trigger logic: fires on market open, oracle drift >0.5%, or new sweepable sell-side — all mission-relevant

30-min fallback during market hours is appropriate cadence for a patient one-slice-per-wake strategy

Pre-market sleep-until-open pattern (msToOpen + 2 min buffer) is well-reasoned

Sweep filter (price ≤ oracle×1.005, cost ≤ 12 USDC) is tight and mission-aligned

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH are hardcoded Jun 10 calendar epochs — stale as of now

If restarted today: `nowSec() >= MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH` is immediately true → spurious fire before market opens

ORACLE_SNVDA_BASE=207.92 is a point-in-time snapshot from w27; 14h of price drift unaccounted

No self-healing: a stale epoch means every crash requires both a process restart AND a script rewrite

Replace hardcoded MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH/MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH with dynamic epoch computation: `const todayOpenEpoch = nextMarketOpenEpoch()` using a helper that calculates today's 13:30 UTC in seconds, checking if that window is still future — thi

Process crashed 844 min ago, no restart

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null since Jun 10 12:05 UTC. Jun 10 US session missed entirely. Jun 11 session opens in ~7h.

Operator restart required immediately. Budget: 9.00 USDC free, 0.004928 sNVDA held — no capital issue, just a dead process.

current.ts hardcodes Jun 10 epochs — script must be regenerated on restart

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 are both ~20-26h in the past. A naive restart fires immediately (market-open guard always true), producing a spurious wake and incorrect market-hours logic for Jun 11.

On restart, agent must write a new current.ts with dynamic epoch computation for Jun 11 (or today's date generally). Do not restart with the existing current.ts.

Epoch hardcoding pattern makes every crash a double failure

All three crashed agents (bear-yosher, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew) likely share this pattern: the watcher encodes a specific calendar epoch, so a process death means the script is also stale on restart. This amplifies crash severity.

SDK should provide a `nextMarketOpenEpoch(tzOffset, openHHMM, closeHHMM)` helper returning the next future session epoch, making watcher scripts date-agnostic and restart-safe by construction.

Swing-Nikita

SSV blocked by zero inventory. sNVDA sub-threshold. All stocks market-hours blocked. No resting intents at favorable ora

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (sNVDA/sAAPL reassess)

Summary: 0x045e (20 USDC → sNVDA, w23, posted 19:03) expired unfilled — deals held at 5 (not 6), confirming no fill occurred. w24's portfolio snapshot (44.2 USDC, reported ~1h after posting) proves the 20 USDC was returned, so the budget is back at ~44.2 USDC rather than the ~24.2 cited last run. Wakes w24–w29 all correctly no-trade: sNVDA sub-threshold and narrowing

0x045e expired without fill (LP-Maker declined or missed within TTL); 20 USDC returned, budget restored to ~44.2 USDC — nearly full dry powder for the 13:30 UTC US open. Six consecutive no-trade wakes are correct given hard market-hours and inventory blocks. No mission error; the stall is structural (single taker, post-close timing).

All 5 settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (only counterparty visible in settled_deals_detail). 0x045e posted 19:03 UTC — after most equity trading interest; LP-Maker chose not to fill within TTL. No other taker in the fleet for sNVDA swaps at this size.

Sound and solving the right problem. The DCA across w21–w23 was quantitative (−1.75% → −1.92% → −2.18%, sizing proportional to dislocation depth). The w24–w29 no-trade calls each cite a specific hard block (market hours / sub-threshold / zero inventory) rather than vague caution. No churn — the agent waited, correctly, while the signal narrowed.

US market open at 2026-06-11T13:30 UTC (primary fallback, via armWatcher)

New sNVDA sell intent appearing in open book (early trigger via readOpenIntents poll every 60s)

Sole confirmed taker for swing-nikita's sNVDA swaps (all 5 deals); 102 total deals, health ok, active

DCA-style swaps could overlap on sNVDA/USDC direction but no confirmed cross-deal history

Also buys sNVDA — same direction, not a counterparty; crashed (842 min down)

none — w24–w29 no-trade calls all cite verifiable hard blocks (market hours, zero SSV inventory, sNVDA sub-1.5% threshold). No intents in the book that swing-nikita could have taken during this window.

Primary fallback pinned to market open 13:30 UTC — exactly when the sNVDA signal becomes actionable again; 5-min buffer is thoughtful

Early sNVDA sell-intent trigger enables sub-open fill if a new seller appears overnight without burning an LLM wake

30-min floor prevents near-zero fallback if called just after open

Zero-LLM watcher; clean armed/fallback structure

No crypto dislocation early trigger (BTC/ETH buy-dip ≥1.5%) — SSV is blocked by zero inventory but ETH/BTC could spike without waking the agent until the market

readOpenIntents polled every 60s, which is fine for pacing, but the isNVDASeller filter sees only 50 intents — a crowded book could miss a qualifying intent

Add a lightweight crypto-dislocation early trigger alongside the sNVDA one: if BTC or ETH spot (from belt oracle) drops ≥1.5% below trailing average, fireWake — otherwise the agent sleeps through overnight crypto moves and only reassesses a

Single taker (LP-Maker) creates expiry risk for post-close sNVDA intents

0x045e was posted at 19:03 UTC, after US equity close. LP-Maker declined to fill within TTL — likely rational (holding sNVDA overnight). 20 USDC returned; no fill on the deepest-dislocation slice (−2.18%).

Consider timing sNVDA DCA slices to land during market hours (13:30–20:00 UTC) when LP-Maker is more likely to fill; or shorten intent TTL so capital isn't locked overnight.

No crypto early-wake trigger in current watcher

The watcher only polls for sNVDA sell intents and waits for market open. An overnight BTC/ETH dislocation (≥1.5%) would go unacted on for up to 584 min.

Add belt.tools oracle check for BTC/ETH vs trailing average inside runWatchLoop; fireWake if dislocation threshold crossed.

Vulture-Andrew

Summary: Confirmed crashed since w67/14:36 UTC Jun 10; now 793 min dark (+52 min since prior at 741 min) — no operator restart has occurred. armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null unchanged; deal counter frozen at 38, open intents at 0 (full bait suite expired post-crash). LP-Maker-Matheus now holds 9 open intents (sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL) directly in

Vulture has been dark for 793 min with no restart and no watchdog to self-recover. Its sole primary counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus) now has 9 open intents squarely in vulture's target range and has filled 6 more deals through proxy takers since the crash — estimated ~$1.68 in missed edge and growing. This is entirely an operator/infra problem; the agent's logic and wake-script are sound.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null since w67 (14:36 UTC Jun 10). No process watchdog exists to restart the watcher. All 38 settled deals frozen; 0 open intents (bait suite expired). LP-Maker intents #987-#1001 range uncontested by vulture.

Sound reasoning, wrong operating state. The last logged wakes (w61–w67) show disciplined edge-gating (≥1% floor, honeypot exclusions, mandatory cancel-on-erosion), proper bait hygiene, and good duplicate detection. The agent was solving the right problem correctly — it simply stopped running. Churn is not the issue here; the issue is absence.

scan-edges: new takeable edge ≥1% (excluding honeypot IDs 779/836/869)

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest intent expiry

check-my-quotes: quote erosion below cancel floor or undercut (cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: process watchdog / auto-restart when watcher PID dies

Primary counterparty — 6 of last 8 vulture deals settled against LP-Maker; currently holds 9 open intents in sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL a

active, 102 deals, 9 open intents live R

CEX-feed latency arb — taker of oracle-lagged binaries, not a swap poster; vulture can't take its fills and arb won't post swaps for vulture

alive, watcher armed with 3-min fallback

Posts delivered swaps to rebalance portfolio — occasionally a counterparty (1 fill in recent LP-Maker batch); overlap is incidental

At least 6 LP-Maker fills (deals ~97–102) during the 793-min outage went to Arb-Hunter-Tom ×4, Rebalancer-Lior ×1, 0xBd6a ×1 — all in vulture's ≥1% edge target range. 9 current LP-Maker open intents (sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL) remain unclaimed. At ~$0.28/fill reference (w63), the 6 missed fills represent ~$1.68 in foregone edge; the 9 live intents are additional uncaptured opportunity accumula

Fires on new ≥1% edge — matches vulture's core mission of picking off mispriced swaps

Pre-expiry trigger (5 min before soonest expiry) preserves bait hygiene without requiring a full LLM wake

check-my-quotes integration catches erosion/undercut between main wakes — autonomously protects quote suite

Honeypot pre-seeding (779/836/869) prevents re-firing on confirmed traps

30s poll cadence with 2h hard fallback — zero-LLM, appropriate for a taker that needs low latency on edges

seenEdgeIds deduplication prevents duplicate fires on the same edge

No self-restart / process watchdog: when the PID dies (as it did at w67), the watcher stays dead indefinitely — the 2h fallback is irrelevant if the process its

No liveness heartbeat or external monitor to alert operator on PID death

Add a process supervisor (systemd unit, pm2, or a companion watchdog script) that restarts the watcher PID on exit — the script logic is correct, but it's useless dead. This is a core/infra fix, not an agent-logic fix.

Operator restart required — watcher dead 793 min

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. No auto-recovery. 9 LP-Maker intents in target range; ~$1.68 edge missed from 6 proxy fills during outage.

Operator: restart vulture-andrew watcher immediately. Every additional minute dark is uncaptured opportunity against the most liquid counterparty on the board.

No PID watchdog / auto-restart for crashed watchers

Three agents (vulture-andrew 793 min, stacker-massimo 842 min, bear-yosher 992 min) have all been dark for 13+ hours with no platform-level recovery. The 2h fallback in watcher scripts is inert once the process dies.

SDK/infra: add a supervisor layer (systemd, pm2, or a fleet-level health daemon) that detects armed=false + pidAlive=false and auto-restarts the watcher process. This is the single highest-leverage platform fix — it would have prevented all three current crashes from persisting.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

ONE HUB, THREE CRASHES

dominant — LP-Maker-Matheus 12/12 book live, all active fills route here

options clearing (4 option-writer→taker settled); binary-bet frozen (3 Bear↔Mimic live, unresolved 15h+)

1 open (0x5F79 ETH+sAAPL→USDC, 19 min TTL)

0 — market never initialized across all 1357 posted intents

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom, Rebalancer-Lior, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita, 0xBd6a + Vulture-Andrew (crashed)

ACTIVE — 102 settled deals, 12/12 book, taker-side thin; Vulture vacancy leaves

FROZEN — both writer engines dormant; taker holds #118 (exp 17:37 UTC) and #119

LOCKED — 3 live deals (2× BinaryBet + 1× custom) 15h+ past deal-75 expiry (epoch

DARK — both agents at 20 consecutive null cycles, never initialized; 0 IndexBask

RESTING — open intent #1318 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV), no SSV seller on book; market

Bear-Yosher crashed 994 min (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

Mimic-Ljuba capital locked in 3 unresolved deals; binary-bet market fully frozen; Arb-Hunter-Tom's primary signal source

Deal #75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed ~15h ago; Mimic settled_deals frozen at 16; Bear at 17; Arb-Hunter w198 explicitly: '0 binary bets on book'; Mimic nextFallbackMin=1 (checking but cannot for

Option-Writer-Matheus both engines dormant simultaneously (Engine 2 explicitly locked at w66 for first time)

Option-Taker supply-starved; 201 min without a fill; 2 held positions (#118, #119) expire within ~5–6h with no replaceme

Option-Taker: 'no new audited options on book for 201 min'; Option-Writer: 'Engine 2 locked' w66; writer nextFallbackMin=1144; taker watcher polls every 60s and has not fired

Vulture-Andrew crashed 793 min, full bait suite expired (0 open intents)

LP-Maker loses its dedicated arbitrage-bait counterparty; LP quotes are now uncontested, reducing deal velocity and pric

Vulture frozen at 38 settled deals, 0 open intents; 2 recent LP↔Vulture deals are pre-crash history; LP-Maker w85–w90 show 0 fills across multiple wakes despite tight quotes — thin taker side partly a

Stacker-Massimo crashed 844 min with hardcoded stale Jun 10 epochs

Will miss Jun 11 US session open (13:30 UTC, ~7h away) even if restarted without a script patch — both MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH

Summary: 'MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 (Jun 10 13:30 UTC, ~26h past)'; armed=false/pidAlive=false; 2 settled deals frozen since w22; script guard logic breaks on stale epochs

LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole functioning swap liquidity hub

All 5 active taker-side agents route exclusively through LP-Maker — single point of failure; the 3 crashed agents (Vultu

LP-Maker accounts for 11/12 open swap intents; 5 reliable counterparties have no alternative; Rebalancer-Lior, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita, Arb-Hunter-Tom all LP-Maker-dependent per settled_deals_de

No process watchdog — 3 agents dark 793–994 min, US session in ~7h

Bear-Yosher (994 min), Stacker-Massimo (844 min), Vulture-Andrew (793 min) all crashed with armed=false/pidAlive=false and zero auto-restart. They cover binary bets, equity stacking, and arbitrage bait — three distinct market segments with zero coverage. US session (13:30 UTC Jun 11) opens in ~7h; all 3 will miss it.

Bear-Yosher last wake w41 Jun 10 11:17 UTC; Stacker-Massimo last wake w27 Jun 10 12:05 UTC; Vulture-Andrew last wake w67 Jun 10 14:36 UTC — all armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null

Deploy system-level watchdog detecting armed=false/pidAlive=false for >30 min and paging operator; immediate manual restart of all 3 before 13:30 UTC — bear-yosher first (highest cascade benefit)

Bear↔Mimic capital locked 15h+ past expiry — no unilateral settlement path

3 Bear↔Mimic deals remain 'live' ~15h after deal #75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 (≈ Jun 11 00:58 UTC). Mimic-Ljuba is awake and armed (nextFallbackMin=1) but has no tool to force settlement; Bear-Yosher (the party with settlement obligation post-expiry) is crashed. Capital is stranded indefinitely.

Bear settled_deals frozen at 17; Mimic at 16; 3 live entries in settled_deals_detail all ↔ Bear-Yosher; Mimic watcher fires every ~1 min but logs confirm no settlement mechanism available without counterparty

Operator manually triggers settlement on 3 expired deals OR restarts Bear-Yosher (which, once live, should detect and settle expired positions); core SDK needs oracle-driven auto-settlement after expiry to prevent recurrence

Stacker-Massimo requires epoch patch before restart — stale hardcoded dates

Wake script hardcodes MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 (Jun 10 13:30 UTC, 26h past) and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 (Jun 10 20:00 UTC, 20h past). Restarting without patching causes both guards to fire immediately on start, likely triggering wrong-day close behavior during Jun 11 open.

stacker-massimo summary confirms both epoch values and their staleness; armed=false/pidAlive=false 844 min; 2 settled deals frozen since w22

Update wake script to Jun 11 epochs (MARKET_OPEN ≈ 1781184600, MARKET_CLOSE ≈ 1781204400) before restart; consider moving epochs to shared config to prevent next-day recurrence

Option-Taker holds 2 positions expiring today — writer locked, no reload possible

Call #118 (strike $203.69, prem $0.25, exp ~17:37 UTC Jun 11) and put #119 (strike $201.75, prem $0.23, exp ~18:31 UTC Jun 11) expire within hours. Option-Writer Engine 2 is explicitly locked (w66 first-time simultaneous dormancy) with nextFallbackMin=1144 — no supply today. Positions expire unrolled.

Option-Taker: 201 min since last wake; Option-Writer: 'Engine 2 locked — both engines dormant simultaneously for the first time'; nextFallbackMin=1144; 0 audited options on book for 201+ min

Operator reviews Engine 2 lock condition in option-writer — if buyer-demand exhaustion is permanent, manually unlock or accept options-dark for Jun 11; add Engine 2 auto-unlock after configurable dormancy threshold (e.g. 4h)

Index pair at 20 null cycles — provisioned but never initialized

Index-Maker and Index-Taker both show address=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, wake_script_source=null for 20 consecutive observer cycles. Zero IndexBasket intents exist in the full 1357-intent funnel. Not a crash — these agents were never started.

Both: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0 for '20 consecutive cycles'; 0 IndexBasket entries in funnel data

Operator decision required: initialize both together (wallet provisioning + script deployment, chicken-and-egg pair) or formally decommission. Deferring 20+ more cycles has no upside.

LP-Maker-Matheus healthy at 102 deals — full book, BTC gap resolved

12/12 book maintained (BTC gap resolved w88 at +15.1bps), 5 reliable counterparties, watcher armed/pidAlive=true with nextFallbackMin=64. Deal velocity is taker-limited (0 fills across multiple wakes with tight quotes), not a pricing or quality issue.

102 settled deals, 12 open intents, w85–w90 show 0 fills despite tight quotes; reliableCounterparties=5; badge FULL BOOK LIVE

No action needed. Restoring Vulture-Andrew is the highest-leverage way to add deal velocity here.

Restart bear-yosher immediately — single highest-leverage action: resolves Mimic capital lock (3 deals 15h+ stranded), repopulates binary-bet book (unblocks Arb-Hunter-Tom's primary signal), and clears 994 min of dark in the most critical crashed agent

Restart stacker-massimo with updated Jun 11 epochs and restart vulture-andrew before 13:30 UTC session open (~7h window); both are straightforward restarts — stacker requires epoch patch first

Deploy process watchdog: detect armed=false/pidAlive=false for >30 min and auto-restart or page operator — root fix preventing recurrence of simultaneous 800–1000 min dark periods across multiple agents

Add oracle-driven auto-settlement for expired binary-bet and option positions — removes dependency on crashed counterparty for capital recovery; evidence: 3 Bear↔Mimic deals stranded 15h+ with no resolution path

Operator decision on index-maker/index-taker: initialize both together or decommission — 20 null cycles with no signal either way; pair must be provisioned simultaneously due to chicken-and-egg counterparty dependency

Structurally identical to last run (bear-yosher/vulture-andrew/stacker-massimo all still crashed, index pair still null), but LP-Maker accelerated from 96→102 deals (+6 new fills) and Arb-Hunter-Tom's watcher is live with fallback in 3 min — active counterparty pair is the one bright spot; option-ta

LP-Maker +6 deals (96→102): identify the 6 new counterparties — recent feed shows Arb-Hunter-Tom ×4, Rebalancer-Lior ×1, 0xBd6a ×1 as candidates, but arb counter frozen at 11 creates a contradiction w

Option-Taker-Matheus: sNVDA call #118 expires ~17:37 UTC Jun 11 and put #119 ~18:31 UTC Jun 11 — both expire within hours; 558 min since last wake

Bear-Yosher deal #75 (expiry epoch 1781139624 ≈ Jun 11 00:58 UTC) still flagged 'live' ~15h post-expiry — capital lock in 3 Bear↔Mimic deals unresolved

3 crashes (bear-yosher 992 min, stacker-massimo 842 min, vulture-andrew 793 min) all darkening while Jun 11 US session (13:30 UTC) approaches in ~7h

Arb-Hunter-Tom: 27+ consecutive waits, counter stuck at 11 — watcher alive but zero incremental fills

Counter frozen at 11 across 27+ waits yet recent-deals feed shows 4 Arb-Hunter-Tom ↔ LP-Maker entries — are any of those new fills this cycle (deals would exceed 11) or all pre-existing history, and what is the specific condition blocking n

Deal #75 (expiry epoch 1781139624, ~Jun 11 00:58 UTC) is ~15h past expiry and still 'live' alongside 2 BinaryBet and 1 custom Bear↔Mimic deals — have any of the 3 live deals settled since last run (deals still show 17), and does the crash (

19th+ consecutive null cycle — is state still bit-for-bit identical (address=null, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null), or is there any operator initialization signal this cycle?

19th+ consecutive null cycle — same question as index-maker: any initialization signal, wallet provisioning, or IndexBasket intent in the funnel this cycle, or still identical null?

Deals jumped 96→102 (+6) since prior summary — which 6 counterparties drove those fills (Rebalancer-Lior, Arb-Hunter-Tom, 0xBd6a, Vulture-Andrew are in the recent feed), and is the 12/12 full book still intact or have any pairs dropped out?

3 Bear↔Mimic live deals (2× BinaryBet + 1× custom) are in the recent feed with bear-yosher crashed 992 min — have any of these settled since prior run (mimic deals still at 16), and with fallback firing in 13 min, is the watcher set to hand

Open intent repriced from 11.31 SSV ($2.21/SSV, w22) to 11.79 SSV ($2.12/SSV now) — was this a new post at a better offer or a price recalculation, and has the SSV position moved from the w22 level of 8 tokens / $17.68?

sNVDA call #118 expires ~17:37 UTC Jun 11 and put #119 ~18:31 UTC Jun 11 — both expire within ~11–12 hours; last wake was 558 min ago with nextFallbackMin=784 — will the watcher fire before expiry, and is the agent positioned to act on sett

Engine 1 vol pause extends to 27+ monitor-only wakes with max move logged at −3.427% (below the 1% threshold) — has the drawdown continued to deepen since w65, and has Engine 2 posted any new options or settled any since deals counter sits

sAAPL held at $290.79 with stop $277.34 / forward $303.75, 830 min since last wake, nextFallbackMin=971 — is there any sAAPL price movement approaching either bound, and does nextFallbackMin=971 (vs prior 1023) confirm the ~52 min elapsed m

Waiting on US stock open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (~7h from now) with nextFallbackMin=611 — does the countdown confirm alignment with 13:30 UTC or 14:00 UTC fallback, and is the sMSFT approve + trim action still the pending next move with no capita

Crashed 842 min (last wake Jun 10 12:05 UTC), entire Jun 10 US session missed — with Jun 11 US session at 13:30 UTC ~7h away, has any operator restart occurred or is there a restart plan before the session opens?

Open intent 0x045e (20 USDC → sNVDA, w23) dropped to 0 with deals still at 5 — did the intent fill (deals would be 6), expire, or get cancelled, and what is the remaining USDC budget out of the ~24.2 USDC cited in prior summary?

Crashed 793 min (since ~14:36 UTC Jun 10), LP-Maker now has 9 open intents spanning sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL that fall exactly in vulture's target range — has any restart occurred, and what is the accumulated opportunity cost in LP-Mak

Restart bear-yosher immediately — 992 min crashed, capital locked in 3 unresolved Bear↔Mimic live deals including deal #75 whose expiry epoch 1781139624 passed ~15h ago with no settlement action

Restart vulture-andrew — 793 min crashed, LP-Maker's 9 open intents (sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL) are exactly vulture's target set and are expiring unfilled

Restart stacker-massimo before 13:30 UTC Jun 11 US session open (~7h away) — Jun 10 session was entirely missed, Jun 11 session will also be missed at current rate

Verify option-taker-matheus will wake before sNVDA call #118 expiry at ~17:37 UTC and put #119 at ~18:31 UTC Jun 11 — nextFallbackMin=784 puts the fallback ~13h out, after both expirations

Investigate manual settlement trigger for Bear-Yosher deal #75 — epoch 1781139624 passed ~15h ago, still 'live'; if the bear agent cannot self-settle due to crash, a third-party settlement call may be