Arb-Hunter-Tom

BestTake: +11bps swap, right at EDGE_BPS_MIN floor. SSV feed trusted (div 49bps << MAX_DIV_BPS 1000). All caps clear: $4

new intent >#1059, OR binary bet ≤30-min settlement w/ CEX taker decided, OR 30-min fallback

Summary: Since last summary (4/134, portfolio ~$99.82): added 1 fill — w164 SSV swap +11bps (deal 114, USDC $80.01 + SSV 3.72→1.77), now 11 total settled deals / 163 wakes (6.7% overall). Post-recovery fill rate is 3/~30 wakes (~10%) — essentially flat vs the 9% baseline. Edge quality is compressing: +35bps (w128) → +22bps (w131) → +11bps (w164, at EDGE_BPS_MIN floor

Fill rate is flat at ~10% post-recovery (3 fills / ~30 wakes), not improving. The more important signal is edge compression: the last fill was exactly at the +10bps floor, meaning arb-hunter is scraping the bottom of available margin. Binary surface has produced zero fills; LP-Maker swaps are the only active venue (8 of 11 lifetime deals).

11/11 settled deals are swaps (8× LP-Maker-Matheus, 1× Rebalancer-Lior, 2 unattributed); 0 binary bet fills. Bear-Yosher (main binary poster) crashed 272 min ago. Mimic-Ljuba armed but bestTake=null in all checked wakes — either prices don't diverge from oracle or BINARY_BET_HASHES set misses their

Sound reasoning, solving the right sub-problem (swap surface) but the primary mission surface (binary bets, latency vs lagging oracle) has been idle for the entire visible history. The binary bet template hash set is a silent exclusion risk — if bear-yosher or mimic-ljuba post with different template hashes, arb-hunter's CEX-decided check never runs. The swap-only execution looks disciplined but m

New intent ID > HIGH_WATER (1052) posted to book

MISSING: explicit binary bet surface monitor — binary bets are only evaluated during the wake run, not as a dedicated trigger; a near-expiry binary with CEX tak

8 confirmed swap fills; 11 live quotes across all 6 assets now

1 confirmed fill; posts regular 7 USDC BTC buy (though below LP floor — that intent may fail)

primary binary-bet source for arb-hunter's core mission, but currently crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 272 min)

CRASHED — 6 in-flight deals, no new post

armed and posting BinaryBets; no fills yet — template hash mismatch or insufficient CEX divergence suspected

Unmeasurable for binary surface: watcher does not pre-screen binary bets; if BINARY_BET_HASHES misses mimic-ljuba's template, arb-hunter never evaluates those intents. On swap surface: w159 notes 'SSV gap exists but book has no takeable intent' — the edge existed but no fillable intent was posted at that moment, which is the market's fault, not arb-hunter's.

HIGH_WATER baseline prevents firing on stale pre-arm intents — clean anti-churn guard

SSV CEX pre-check before firing on mSSV-sell intents prevents waking on taker-negative edges

30-min fallback ensures binary surface is polled even if no new swap intents arrive

Label accurately scopes the multi-surface mission

BTC/ETH swap intents fire on any new ID > HIGH_WATER without a CEX pre-check — arb-hunter wakes and then dismisses them (e.g. 'ETH +18bps, BTC +13bps' — below f

Binary bet surface has no dedicated watcher trigger: near-expiry bets with CEX taker already decided can sit up to 30 min before discovery — the highest-value s

BINARY_BET_HASHES is a hardcoded 2-hash set; new templates from mimic-ljuba or recovered bear-yosher would be silently excluded

Add a CEX pre-check for BTC/ETH swap intents (same pattern as SSV): compute implied price vs Coinbase spot before calling fireWake — this eliminates sub-threshold wakes (seen in w159–w163 logs) and concentrates token spend on genuinely acti

BTC/ETH swap intents fire without edge pre-check

watcher fires on any new intent > HIGH_WATER for BTC/ETH; w159–w163 show repeated wakes where gaps are 10–18bps (below EDGE_BPS_MIN) or wrong direction — each costs ~$0.66. SSV already has this guard.

Extend the CEX pre-check pattern in the watcher to BTC/ETH: fetch Coinbase spot, compute implied swap price vs oracle, skip fireWake if gap < EDGE_BPS_MIN + buffer.

Binary bet template hashes hardcoded — silent exclusion of new posters

BINARY_BET_HASHES contains exactly 2 hashes. Mimic-Ljuba (16 deals, armed) and a recovered bear-yosher would post with their own template hashes. Arb-hunter's CEX-decided check never runs on unknown hashes, making the primary mission surface partially blind.

Fetch template hash list dynamically from the book (or make the check template-agnostic by inspecting intent structure rather than hash-matching) so new binary posters are automatically covered.

Binary bet counterparty vacuum — bear-yosher crashed with no replacement

Bear-yosher (main binary poster) has been crashed 272 min with 6 in-flight deals unresolved. Arb-hunter's primary surface is structurally starved until it recovers. Mimic-Ljuba is the only live binary poster but hasn't produced a fill.

Restart bear-yosher or route arb-hunter's binary scan explicitly to mimic-ljuba's confirmed template hash.

Bear-Yosher

Exactly-one-resting invariant violated (836 expired). Posted 869 to maintain bear anchor. No BinaryBets available to tak

intent 869 fill/expiry OR new BinaryBet OR ETH/BTC +1.5% OR deal 75 near-expiry OR 4h

Summary: Mission executing correctly: 14 settled BinaryBets (11 with Mimic-Ljuba, reliable partnership validated), -$0.36 lifetime PnL, disciplined 'exactly-one-resting-bet' invariant. Wakes w31-w35 show clean recovery from w29b/w30 promise-drop incident (no new duplicates). Focus question: 1 open intent (17m old) is normal order flow awaiting fill/expiry, not stuck.

Bear-yosher's crypto-down conviction is executing correctly with 14 settled deals (11 with Mimic, -$0.36 PnL) and recovers cleanly from w29b/w30 duplicate-fire incident. Risk is platform-level: core SDK's armWatcher promise-drop remains unfixed and could re-trigger the invariant violation.

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop: w29b & w30 fired simultaneously on same intent-fill trigger (06-10 04:09:00), posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets. Not agent reasoning failure — agent correctly detects and repairs invariant violation in w31 (repost). No agent-side misreading.

Sound. Mission-aligned execution: posts crypto-down BinaryBets BELOW strikes, maintains 'exactly one resting bet' invariant via disciplined expiry/repost (w31, w32, w34b, w35). Fires on economic events: deal expiry, price >1.5% adverse move, new binaries on book, own intent resolution. The w29b/w30 duplicate-fire is a core SDK bug, not reasoning failure.

Deal 74 near-expiry (5 min window before 10:17 UTC)

Intent 760 resolution (fill/expiry, ~08:55 UTC, 1h TTL)

11 of 14 settled deals (79%), reliable copy-trader, thesis-aligned (crypto-down conviction mirror)

Takes mispriced binaries; could absorb bear's resting bets if competitive, but currently posting 8 aged unfilled intents (21-40m old) himsel

warming (low fill rate, capacity uncerta

Takes near-decided binaries, but latency-arbitrage focus on fast CEX feed may not align with bear's patient on-chain oracle pricing

None detected. Agent maintains exactly-one-resting-bet invariant and expires/reposts unfilled orders systematically (w31, w32, w34b, w35). The 1 open intent (17m old) is normal order flow — no fill does not indicate missed trade opportunity, just thin book or counterparty unavailable right now.

Fires on own intent resolution (maintains exactly-one-resting-bet invariant)

Fires on ETH/BTC price moves >1.5% (crypto-down thesis edge; adversarial stop-loss)

Fires on new aligned BinaryBet on book (taker leg of mission)

4h fallback (reasonable cadence for patient conviction, not sub-minute churn)

Zero LLM in loop, lightweight price-fetch checks, scalable

No agent-script change needed. The fix is core SDK: patch armWatcher in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js to prevent duplicate fires on the same trigger event (see issues, scope: core).

armWatcher promise-drop causes duplicate wakes

w29b and w30 fired simultaneously (06-10 04:09:00) on the same intent-fill event, posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets and violating 'exactly one resting bet' invariant. Core SDK bug in armWatcher; all agents using armWatcher are at risk. This is the same root cause as LP-Maker offline (919 min, armed=f

Debug and patch armWatcher in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js: ensure fireWake() trigger is consumed atomically so only one wakeLoop iteration fires per trigger event. Verify promise handling does not double-fire on same condition.

Index-Maker

Summary: 9th consecutive null cycle — state remains byte-for-byte identical across all 9 runs: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, settled_deals=not-indexed. No change whatsoever detected: no file timestamp delta, no config update, no process attempt, no on-chain activity. This agent has never been

9 cycles of absolute null. Index-maker has never run: no wake script, no process, no token spend, no deals. This is a missing bootstrap, not a crash — the slot exists on the roster but the agent was never stood up.

wake_script_source=null (9 consecutive cycles), wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=$0, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — identical across all recorded cycles; settled_deals='not-indexed' confirms no on-chain footprint

No reasoning to evaluate — agent has never executed a single wake. The mission (publish LONG IndexBasket intents + verified source to indexer) is well-scoped on paper, but it is entirely theoretical until initialization occurs.

MISSING: no wake script exists (source=null)

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

MISSING: no process ever started (pidAlive=false, wakes=0)

Designed as the SHORT-side counterparty to index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents — the only natural taker in the fleet

unknown health, likely same null/uniniti

unmeasurable: agent has never posted an intent; no book presence to measure against

wake_script_source is null — no script exists at all

Bootstrap the agent: write current.ts implementing the IndexBasket intent authoring loop (price BTC+AAPL+NVDA, construct LONG basket intent, publish verified contract source to indexer, post one open intent at a time with appropriate TTL an

Agent never bootstrapped — no wake script, no process, no initialization

9 consecutive observer cycles confirm zero state change. wake_script_source=null means current.ts either doesn't exist or is empty. No process has ever started (wakes=0, pidAlive=false). The agent occupies a roster slot but has never operated.

Create current.ts for index-maker with: (1) oracle price fetch for BTC/AAPL/NVDA, (2) IndexBasket intent construction (LONG, cash-settled USDC), (3) verified contract source publication to indexer, (4) single open-intent-at-a-time guard, (5) hourly fallback cadence. Also confirm index-taker is initi

Counterparty index-taker likely also uninitialized

index-taker shows health=unknown with no roster deal count, mirroring index-maker's null state. Even after index-maker bootstraps, deals won't form until index-taker is also live and auditing posted baskets.

Bootstrap both index-maker and index-taker together as a pair; verify index-taker's audit-custom flow against index-maker's published verified source before declaring the market live.

9 cycles of absolute null. Index-maker has never run: no wake script, no process, no token spend, no deals. This is a missing bootstrap, not a crash — the slot exists on the roster but the agent was never stood up.

Index-Taker

Summary: 9th consecutive cycle of identical null state: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No change since cycle 8. Index-maker remains health='unknown' with no IndexBasket intents appearing on-chain (absent from fleet focus areas, no on-chain activity surfaced). Dependency theory holds for 9 cycle

Zero change across 9 cycles — $0 lifetime spend, 0 wakes. Index-maker (health=unknown, also null-state) has never posted a LONG IndexBasket intent, so index-taker's fail-closed design correctly keeps it fully dormant. No intake trigger has ever fired.

Index-maker health=unknown, 0 settled deals, no IndexBasket intents observed on-chain across 9 observer cycles; index-taker's wake condition (presence of a LONG IndexBasket intent) has never been satisfied

Unmeasurable — wake_script_source=null means reasoning quality cannot be assessed. The fail-closed design (only act on ACCEPT after audit) is architecturally sound, but the agent has never executed a single cycle.

MISSING: no wake script loaded — source is null, trigger logic unknown/undeployed

Expected: new LONG IndexBasket intent posted on-chain by index-maker

sole intended counterparty — posts the LONG side index-taker takes SHORT

health=unknown, null state, 0 activity a

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (wake_script_source=null); additionally, no IndexBasket intents have appeared on-chain to miss

wake_script_source is null — no watcher deployed at all

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) means agent cannot self-recover or even confirm liveness

Deploy the wake script: poll for open LONG IndexBasket intents on-chain; fire when one appears. Add a periodic fallback (e.g. 120 min) so the agent can confirm index-maker is still absent rather than staying permanently dark.

Wake script never deployed

wake_script_source=null for 9 consecutive cycles. The agent cannot respond to any on-chain event. If index-maker were to post an IndexBasket intent today, index-taker would not see it.

Deploy current.ts with an on-chain IndexBasket intent poller and a fallback timer. This is a prerequisite for any live activity.

Dependency on index-maker blocks all activity

Index-maker has 0 lifetime activity and health=unknown across 9 cycles. Index-taker's entire mission is gated on a counterparty that has never operated.

Coordinate index-maker deployment first; index-taker is correctly dormant until that unblocks. No fix needed on index-taker's logic — fix the sequencing.

Zero change across 9 cycles — $0 lifetime spend, 0 wakes. Index-maker (health=unknown, also null-state) has never posted a LONG IndexBasket intent, so index-taker's fail-closed design correctly keeps it fully dormant. No intake trigger has ever fired.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Inverted SSV bid already filled (pre-wake). Concurrent session had pre-cleaned most dups. Posted clean sAAPL/sNVDA asks

#1023 sMSFT ask expiry ~16:03 UTC | new fillable intent | 35min fallback

Summary: Fully recovered from the 931-min offline gap — active since before 06-10T14:45, now at w65-68, 86 settled deals, $83.36/5h. pidAlive=false is normal for this watcher: the Node watch-loop arms the deadline then exits; armed=true + nextFallbackMin=20 confirms the daemon is holding the alarm correctly. 10/12 quotes live (missing ETH ask and BTC ask — $0.25 and

LP-Maker is live and dominant (86 deals, 4 active counterparties, 10 open quotes) but recurring concurrent-session collisions (w67: full rebuild, 10 txns; w68: 4 cancelled intents) are wasting ~$2/event in gas and destabilizing the book. ETH/BTC ask absence is correctly managed (thin inventory), not a bug.

w67: 'Concurrent sessions mutually cancelled each other's work, requiring full book rebuild. 10 total txns this wake. Gas ~$2.' w68: '#1012 SSV bid #1013 sAAPL bid #1014 sMSFT bid disappeared (concurrent session cancelled)'. w65: 'Concurrent session spawned duplicates requiring...'. Counterparties a

Sound and on-mission. The agent correctly skips ETH/BTC asks at $0.25/$0.33 inventory (thin enough to be a free option risk), applies per-quote price guards, and rebuilds the book after expiry clusters. The concurrent-session churn is a platform-level race condition, not bad reasoning — the agent's response (rebuild and continue) is correct. One subtle issue: the SSV inversion guard fired at w65 m

Price inversion guard: per-quote thresholds for SSV/ETH/BTC/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT bids and asks

Expiry guard: fires 5 min before #1023 sMSFT ask (1781107440 epoch)

New fillable swap intent matching HOLD set

30-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=20 remaining)

Most frequent filler (7+ deals) — latency arb on oracle lag exactly consumes LP quotes

8+ deals — takes mispriced LP quotes as part of its mandate

health=ok, recently crashed but prior bu

5+ deals — DCA swaps land directly on LP quotes; persistent buyer

health=ok, active (though 7 USDC BTC buy

5 settled deals — external wallet, reliable taker

Delivered swaps mission — could take LP quotes, but only 1 deal lifetime

None identifiable — the agent is actively filling incoming intents and its 4 reliable counterparties are taking quotes. The watcher fires on new fillable intents, so responsive to demand. ETH/BTC ask gaps mean some arb opportunities on those legs are structurally unavailable until inventory replenishes.

Per-quote price guards (10 thresholds) fire before inversion, not after — LP cannot be picked off without a wake

Expiry guard fires 5 min early on soonest intent (#1023) — prevents silent book decay

New fillable intent scan with HOLD-set filter — responsive to taker demand

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a maker maintaining live quotes

pidAlive=false is correct: Node process exits after arming; daemon holds alarm

No guard for when ETH/BTC inventory recovers enough to post missing asks — LP stays at 10/12 silently until next fallback fires

Price guard thresholds are hardcoded to w68 quote prices — after a book rebuild (w67/w68 concurrent collision) the new quote IDs/prices are baked in, but stale

Add an inventory-recovery guard: if ETH > 0.5 or BTC > 0.005 (posting threshold), fireWake('ETH/BTC inventory recovered — post missing asks'). This closes the gap where the LP sits at 10/12 for up to 30 min after inventory replenishes.

Concurrent session collisions causing book churn and gas waste

w67: full book rebuild, 10 txns, ~$2 gas. w68: 4 intended intents cancelled mid-flight by a parallel session. w65: duplicate spawned by ETH inversion guard firing while another session was active. The watcher fires a new Node process while the previous session's on-chain txns are still pending — the

SDK: add a session-lock (e.g. advisory file lock on /agent/data/wake/session.lock) so a new wake process exits immediately if a prior session is still running. The fallback will retry; the book stays stable.

ETH/BTC ask gap — no recovery trigger

ETH inventory $0.25, BTC $0.33 — both below posting threshold. LP correctly skips asks, but has no trigger to post them once inventory replenishes (e.g. after Arb-Hunter fills a bid). Gap can persist up to 30 min.

Add inventory-threshold guard in wake-script (see suggestedChange above). Threshold values should come from the agent's own posting-floor config, not magic numbers.

Hardcoded quote prices/IDs in wake-script become stale after rebuilds

Current wake-script bakes in w68 quote IDs (#1040, #1041, etc.) and their exact prices. After a concurrent-session rebuild (w67/w68), new IDs are posted at slightly different prices — the old thresholds may be off by a few bps until the next wake rewrites the script.

Minor: wake-script should derive inversion thresholds from a stored config file (e.g. /agent/data/wake/quotes.json written each wake) rather than inline constants, so a rebuild automatically updates them.

Mimic-Ljuba

Edge floor ≥3pp unmet. One deliberate move rule enforced. Waiting for binary bet flow or new taker-edge opportunity.

Summary: Previously: watcher fired correctly on Intent #869 (BTC>$63.5k, +42pp edge, deal 93); Bear's newest bet had not yet been acted on. This cycle: Bear-Yosher has crashed (armed=false/pidAlive=false) — the source of 14/14 tracked BinaryBet settlements. Mimic's 6 in-flight deals are safe (on-chain, oracle-settled, Bear's liveness irrelevant to resolution). Board

Mimic is alive and well-behaved (armed=true, pidAlive=true, 22-min fallback) but Bear-Yosher's crash has eliminated ~100% of its BinaryBet supply. The 6 in-flight deals settle on-chain regardless; after that, Mimic has no source of new binary flow and will idle at 45-min fallback cycles until Bear restarts or another agent posts BinaryBets.

14 of 14 BinaryBet settled deals are with Bear-Yosher; 1 custom deal also with Bear-Yosher; 0 settled deals with any other agent. Bear crashed 272+ min ago. Book confirmed empty of BinaryBets in wakes w54–w59.

Sound and disciplined — wakes w54–w59 all correctly identify 'no BinaryBets / edge floor unmet' and hold capital. The problem is it is solving the right problem (wait for binary flow) in a market where that flow has disappeared. Not churn; genuinely waiting on an empty book.

new BinaryBet intent appears on book (templateHash 0x09cd...)

MISSING: no trigger for Bear-Yosher agent coming back online (though new-bet trigger covers this indirectly)

sole historical BinaryBet supplier, 14/14 BinaryBet deals; crashed and not posting

CRASHED — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 2

mission includes 'make a small-shade binary only' — could post BinaryBets Mimic could take

2 settled deals, health unknown from dat

writes options; mission mentions BinaryBet posting in one engine; 15 settled deals

health unknown; not confirmed to post Bi

taker of near-decided binaries, not a poster — does not supply BinaryBet flow

none — wakes w54–w59 confirm no BinaryBets with ≥3pp edge on book. The book is genuinely empty; Mimic cannot act on intents that do not exist.

Fires on new BinaryBet by template hash — correct event for a copy-trader whose only action is to take/mirror binary bets

45-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient taker; no sub-minute polling

Zero-LLM watcher (pure book scan), correct use of newMatches() to detect net-new intents, not 'book non-empty'

Baseline snapshot on first iteration prevents false-fire on already-seen bets

No awareness that Bear-Yosher (sole supplier) is offline — will idle silently at fallback cadence rather than alerting

Fallback at 45 min means up to 45-min delay detecting when Bear restarts and posts; could miss a short-lived posting window

Reduce fallback to 20 min while the board has been empty for N consecutive cycles, to react faster when Bear (or any binary poster) comes back online — cost is minimal given $0.49/5h burn.

Near-100% counterparty concentration on Bear-Yosher

14/14 BinaryBet deals (100%) are with Bear-Yosher. When Bear crashes, Mimic's entire deal pipeline stops. $0.59 realized PnL at risk of stalling indefinitely.

Expand mission to also accept BinaryBets from polymarket-ljuba and option-writer-matheus if they post to the open book; watcher already covers this (template-hash scan is counterparty-agnostic), so this is a CLAUDE.md/decision-criteria change, not a watcher change.

Bear-Yosher crash kills binary market supply

Bear is the only active BinaryBet poster (0 open BinaryBets confirmed across wakes w54–w59). Until Bear restarts, the binary sub-market is frozen. Mimic, arb-hunter-tom, and polymarket-ljuba all depend on Bear-sourced binary flow.

Restart Bear-Yosher; investigate crash trigger (Step 1 notes 272-min downtime with 6 in-flight deals — check for OOM, assertion failure, or unhandled deal-settlement callback).

Momentum-Nikita

Edge threshold unmet on both lookbacks. SSV is the persistent momentum leader but hasn't broken out by the required 2pp

full-universe relative-gap ≥2pp (BTC·ETH·SSV·sAAPL·sNVDA·sMSFT) or 4h fallback

Summary: LP-Maker recovery (11 open intents, confirmed live) has removed the structural fill-side blocker that caused SSV intent failures #741/#745 pre-recovery. Since w16 (141 min ago, 13:31 UTC), no asset has cleared the 2pp relative-gap threshold — SSV remains the persistent near-leader but hasn't broken away. Agent is correctly dormant; watcher is armed and activ

The 2pp filter has fired zero times since w16. Wakes w12–w16 consistently logged 'edge threshold unmet / declining together / no leadership separation' — the market is genuinely flat. LP-Maker is now live across all 6 assets, so the fill-side is no longer a blocker; the only missing ingredient is a price dislocation. Agent is operating correctly.

Historical: intents #741/#745 failed pre-LP-recovery due to illiquidity (1h TTL on #741, then LP absent for #745). Current: LP-Maker now live (11 open intents, BTC/ETH/sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT/SSV), so the fill-side is open. The starve condition has resolved; agent is now simply waiting for market conditio

Sound and solving the right problem. W16 correctly identified SSV as persistent leader but applied the 2pp filter appropriately. Prior wakes (w12–w15) all logged the same disciplined conclusion — no threshold breach, no action. The agent is not churning or re-deriving the same failed move; it's correctly resting on a thin, choppy book.

Relative gap ≥2pp between any two assets' returns from live baseline (polled every 60s)

Primary and only practical fill counterparty for delivered swaps across all 6 universe assets; 11 open intents live now

Posts delivered swap intents occasionally (BTC buys), could cross if momentum fires on BTC — but Rebalancer is a taker not a maker

None detectable. Watcher polls every 60s; no gap event appears in logs between w16 and now. W12–W16 all confirmed threshold unmet. The near-miss is SSV, which has been the persistent leader but hasn't separated by 2pp — correct to filter, not a missed trade.

Measures the actual decision variable: relative gap between best and second-best return, not per-asset absolute move — exactly what the mission requires

Live baseline captured on first poll (not hardcoded from prior wake) — eliminates stale-snapshot false triggers

Full 6-asset universe including US equities (frozen pre-market-open, now open)

60s poll cadence appropriate for momentum — not sub-minute churn, not hourly stale

4h fallback ensures agent wakes regardless; zero-LLM in watcher; PID file enables clean kill

No near-miss logging when gap is 1.5–2pp — SSV has been a persistent near-leader; logging this band would confirm threshold proximity without changing firing be

No LP availability pre-check before firing — minor now that LP is stable, but would avoid waking agent into a no-fill environment if LP drops again

Add a console.log line when gap is in the 1.5–2.0pp band (e.g., '[watcher] near-miss: gap=1.73pp leader=SSV') — zero behavior change, but gives the next wake's reasoning concrete evidence of how close the market came to triggering, rather t

Historical -$0.50 PnL from pre-LP-recovery TTL mismatch

Intents #741 (1h TTL, LP absent) and #745 (8h TTL, expired illiquid) both failed when LP was offline. The -$0.50 realized PnL traces to those two wasted attempts, not to mispricing.

No action needed — LP is now live. If LP drops again, the agent should detect no fill and not re-post blindly; consider checking LP health (open intents count) before posting rather than relying on TTL to absorb illiquidity.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Wake 23 check — looking for new audited Option intents to evaluate

a new audited Option intent appears (or 2h)

Summary: dealId 100 is SETTLED — w22's InvalidDealState error confirms it was already settled before w22's attempt (clean, no double-settlement), and the $7.76 realized PnL proves the ETH put expired ITM (ETH closed below $1,631.46 within the 1.95h window, collateral $8.00 → net ~$7.76 after premium). w23 (14:56, 55 min ago) found zero new audited Option intents; opt

dealId 100 settled profitably ($7.76 PnL, put expired ITM despite being 1% OTM at take); agent is correctly armed and idle. No new audited Options exist in the book as of w23 (14:56). The entire pipeline is gated on option-writer-matheus posting the next intent.

0 audited Option intents found in w21/w22/w23 scans post-settlement; sole counterparty option-writer-matheus (15 deals, health ok) has not posted since dealId 100 was taken at 14:47

Sound, solving the right problem. The agent correctly identified cheap 2h optionality at $0.24 premium (0.24% of book, 1% OTM), took it, then monitored for settlement. The w22 collision (InvalidDealState) is a non-harmful timing artifact — deal was already settled, possibly by a parallel wake. No churn: 0 tokens burned in last 5h, 0 re-posts. The only gap is that w21's settlement watcher appears t

new audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f4b... exact match via readOpenIntents)

sole Option writer in the fleet using the audited template; 15 settled deals, health ok

armed and ok but currently posting nothi

none — zero audited Option intents in book since w20 take; nothing to miss

fires only on NEW audited Options (exact templateHash match, newMatches pattern) — won't false-fire on stale book

2h fallback is appropriate for a patient, selective taker — no sub-minute poll waste

zero-LLM watcher; PID written for clean kill

100-intent scan covers realistic book depth

settlement lifecycle not encoded in this script: when the agent holds an open deal near expiry, it overwrites current.ts with a transient settlement watcher (pe

Add an open-deal check at loop start: if a live option deal exists and expiry is within 10 min, fireWake('dealId X approaching expiry — settle') directly from this script, removing the need for a fragile transient watcher override.

Settlement trigger relies on transient current.ts override

w21 re-armed a settlement watcher by overwriting current.ts; if that process crashes, the standard watcher (fires on new intents only) takes over with no settlement trigger. A missed settlement = full collateral forfeit for an ITM option.

Fold the settlement check into the primary watcher: at each loop iteration, check if an open option deal exists and is within N minutes of expiry — if yes, fireWake immediately without waiting for the fallback.

Single counterparty concentration

100% of option supply comes from option-writer-matheus. If that agent pauses (e.g. rotates to its 30% equity portfolio engine for a long stretch), option-taker-matheus goes indefinitely supply-dry with no fallback.

Agent CLAUDE.md: note that if supply-dry streaks exceed 3–4 wakes, it may be worth flagging to the fleet operator that option-writer-matheus should increase option posting cadence, or that a second Option writer should be introduced.

dealId 100 settled profitably ($7.76 PnL, put expired ITM despite being 1% OTM at take); agent is correctly armed and idle. No new audited Options exist in the book as of w23 (14:56). The entire pipeline is gated on option-writer-matheus posting the next intent.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Engine 1 paused — market signals non-recovery. Repricing and reposting burnt gas and collateral with zero fills. The mov

vol spike (>1% ETH/BTC) or option buyer on book, or 4h market-close fallback

Summary: Prior: PUT 779 expired unfilled, sMSFT rotation stuck at 4 failed swaps (530/533/764/804), LP offline. New since last summary: LP came back live, agent fired w34–w38 in quick succession. At w34 (13:32), sMSFT buy 933 and sNVDA buy 936 posted — but by w35 (13:40) the agent self-canceled 933 (sMSFT) and 938 (sAAPL sell): drawdown hit -19.26%, 0.74% from the -2

LP recovery did not unlock sMSFT rotation: the agent self-halted Engine 1 at w35 with drawdown at -19.26% (0.74% from the -20% stop). Engine 2 (options) also voluntarily paused after 7 consecutive unfilled puts. Both halts are correctly reasoned. The watcher is alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true, 132min fallback) but has no trigger to detect drawdown recovery — Engine 1 can only auto-resume on the 4h fallback, not when the book actually clears the threshold.

Engine 1: drawdown -19.26% at w35, halt threshold -20%; intents 933/938 self-canceled, 936 failed with no LP fill on sNVDA leg. Engine 2: 7 consecutive unfilled option intents (including 951 at w36 — collateral 8 USDC, premium 0.24 USDC, 60min accept window, no taker); Option-Taker-Matheus has 1 lif

Sound reasoning, correct problem. The agent correctly read the drawdown signal at w35 and didn't push through the threshold blind. The Engine 2 pause (w37–w38) is also disciplined — 'gas spend on additional option posts is irrational when 7 consecutive intents have failed' is the right call. No churn. Risk: the agent is solving a real constraint correctly but is now fully passive — both engines ha

>1% ETH or BTC price move vs baseline (vol spike)

New kind=unknown intent with USDC↔USDC legs (option buyer proxy)

MISSING: drawdown recovery trigger — if book value rises above -20% threshold, Engine 1 should reassess; currently only a 4h fallback catches this

Only option buyer in fleet; settled 1 custom deal with this agent (the single lifetime deal)

Live with 11 open swap quotes; could fill sNVDA/sMSFT legs — but Engine 1 is self-halted on drawdown, not LP availability

Both trade stock tokens; rebalancer posts BTC buys (7 USDC, below LP 12 USDC floor) — no direct overlap on stock legs

None measurable this cycle — both engines deliberately halted. LP went live but the sNVDA swap (936) still failed fill, suggesting LP's stock token coverage may not include sNVDA at sufficient depth. The agent could not have taken rebalancer-lior's BTC buy (7 USDC, below LP minimum) as a counterparty.

Vol spike trigger (>1% ETH/BTC) directly maps to Engine 2 re-entry condition — correct for options mission

Option buyer detection (kind=unknown, USDC↔USDC legs) is a reasonable proxy for the one counterparty class that matters

4h fallback covers market-close reassessment for Engine 1 (US hours 13:30–20:00 UTC); 132min remaining puts next wake ~18:00 UTC, still in session

Zero-LLM, polls every 60s, armed with pid — well-formed watcher

No drawdown recovery trigger: Engine 1 can only auto-resume on the 4h timer, not when the portfolio actually clears -20% threshold mid-session

Option buyer heuristic (kind=unknown + USDC↔USDC) may produce false positives on non-option custom deals — no premium/collateral ratio check

Add drawdown check: read agents/option-writer-matheus/data/state.json at each poll, compute current book value vs initial, and fireWake('drawdown recovered above -20% threshold') when it clears — this lets Engine 1 re-engage intra-session w

Engine 1 has no intra-session recovery path

Drawdown halt (-19.26%) is correct, but the watcher only has a 4h timer fallback for reassessment. If the portfolio recovers above the -20% threshold mid-session (e.g. via a settled swap or price move), Engine 1 stays dark until the timer fires.

Add state.json drawdown read to watcher loop; fireWake when book_value/initial_book > 0.80.

Wake timestamp anomaly: w37 (13:35) logged before w36 (14:00)

Recent wakes list shows w37 at 13:35 UTC and w36 at 14:00 UTC — wake numbers and timestamps are inverted. Either logging writes wake number after execution, or two wakes fired nearly simultaneously. If the latter, state.json may have been written twice concurrently.

Investigate wake numbering logic in SDK; confirm state.json has consistent single-writer semantics.

Option market has no active buyers — fleet-level starvation

Option-Taker-Matheus has 1 lifetime deal. Intent 951 (ETH put, 8 USDC collateral, 3% premium) found zero takers in 60min. This is not option-writer's fault — the option sleeve is correctly sized and priced, but the fleet has no liquid option demand.

Fleet move: recruit or configure a second option-taker agent, or lower the acceptance threshold in option-taker's CLAUDE.md to trigger on more put writes.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL position well-anchored within weekly horizon, no exit triggers hit. No new dir

Summary: Holds 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 entry (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon). w19–w26 all 'no misprice' — not churn, correct convergence behavior. w26 approved sAAPL (tx 0xf1458336) ahead of exit. Bear-yosher crash (primary binary intent source) has thinned the tertiary trigger; however option-writer-matheus (ok, 15 deals) remains an activ

Agent is in a legitimate quiet hold: 0 tokens/5h burn, watcher armed with a well-tiered trigger hierarchy (horizon > price > new intents). Bear-yosher's crash removes the primary source of new binary intents, weakening the tertiary trigger, but option-writer-matheus is still writing options and the sAAPL exit triggers dominate the near-term action calendar (Jun12 20:00 UTC fallback in 1688 min).

Bear-yosher (primary BinaryBet poster, 17 deals, now armed=false/pidAlive=false) contributed the majority of new binary intents that would fire polymarket-ljuba's tertiary trigger. Vulture-andrew also crashed (0 open_intents). Remaining sources: option-writer-matheus (active, ok) and possibly mimic-

Sound and solving the right problem. The agent is not re-deriving cold each wake — it consistently notes edge erosion to 1.5–3.1% from distribution convergence, which is the correct framing for an option/binary hold nearing expiry. The preemptive sAAPL approval (w26) was forward-looking maintenance, not a trade. No evidence of churn.

sAAPL oracle >= $303.75 (forward, +4.8%)

sAAPL horizon expiry: nowTs >= 1781294400 (Jun12 20:00 UTC)

New binary/option intent detected on book (delta vs lastWakeBets set)

Fallback: Jun11 20:00 UTC = ~1688 min (24h before expiry, to assess exit makers)

WEAKENED: binary-intent trigger now starved — bear-yosher crashed, vulture-andrew crashed; only option-writer-matheus remains as a reliable new-intent source

Writes new ETH/BTC/stock options — primary remaining source of option intents polymarket-ljuba can evaluate vs Polymarket distribution

Posts binary bets, but mission is to mirror bear-yosher; autonomous bet output likely reduced with bear-yosher down

Was the dominant binary intent poster (17 deals); crash directly starves polymarket-ljuba's tertiary trigger

CRASHED: armed=false, pidAlive=false, 27

Needed as the exit swap maker for sAAPL; 11 open intents, confirmed live

None detectable. Bear-yosher's 6 in-flight BinaryBet deals are settled/in-flight positions, not open intents polymarket-ljuba can take. The watcher's delta-only scan would have caught any newly posted binary/option intents. With bear-yosher and vulture-andrew both crashed, the open intent book has thinned — the agent correctly found nothing actionable across w19–w26.

Three-tier priority is correct for a position holder: horizon expiry > price stop/forward > new taker opportunities

Fallback at Jun11 20:00 UTC (24h before expiry) is mission-correct: gives the agent time to find exit swap makers before horizon closes

Delta-only intent scan avoids re-firing on stale intents — prevents false wakes and token waste

horizonTs loaded from state.json with hardcoded fallback — robust to state corruption

60s poll interval is appropriate; not sub-minute, well inside the action time window

No oracle-drift re-evaluation trigger: if sAAPL moves 1–2% without hitting stop/forward, existing open binary/option intents on the book could become newly misp

Tertiary trigger is now structurally weakened by bear-yosher/vulture-andrew crashes — no compensating mechanism (e.g., a shorter re-eval fallback)

Add a re-evaluation tick when oracle price changes >1% since last wake, checking existing open binary/option intents against updated Polymarket distribution — this recovers the taker opportunity that delta-only scanning misses when the book

Bear-yosher crash starves polymarket-ljuba's tertiary trigger

Bear-yosher (primary BinaryBet poster) is crashed at 272 min with armed=false/pidAlive=false. Polymarket-ljuba's binary-intent delta trigger depends on new bets appearing — with bear-yosher down, this trigger is largely inert. Option-writer-matheus remains the only reliable option-intent source.

Prioritize bear-yosher crash recovery; its 6 in-flight BinaryBet deals need a live agent managing them, and its restart would restore polymarket-ljuba's taker signal.

No oracle-drift re-evaluation for existing open intents

The watcher only fires on NEW intents. If sAAPL or BTC/ETH prices drift significantly between wakes, existing open binary/option intents may become mispriced vs Polymarket but the agent won't re-evaluate them until a new intent appears or the fallback fires (1688 min).

Add a fireWake trigger when oracle price changes >X% since last recorded snapshot, to force re-evaluation of the existing open intent book.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC -7.0pp is most underweight leg. No favorable takes available. ETH -4.2pp will be next action once #1053 resolves.

#1053 BTC resolves (fill/expire ~16:42 UTC) or stock close 20:00 UTC

LP-Maker minimum = 12 USDC; every BTC intent posted at 7 USDC (w20, w21 #777 expired, w22 #831 expired, w23 #887 ~expired). 0xBd6a took 2/8 lifetime deals at small lots but no confirmed current book presence. No other demonstrated small-lot BTC taker in fleet.

intent #887 resolved (ownIntentResolved poll every 60s)

stocks market open 2026-06-10T13:30:00Z fallback (36 min remaining)

12 USDC minimum lot size; current BTC intent is 7 USDC — hard floor, not price-sensitive

Only demonstrated small-lot BTC taker (2/8 deals); external address, reliability unknown

Taker of mispriced/near-decided deals, not a BTC swap maker

Dual trigger is correct: intent resolution (fill/expire) fires first, stocks market open as hard fallback — no wasted sleep

60s poll interval appropriate for a patient DCA agent

Watcher is zero-LLM, has fallback, and armed correctly (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=36)

Watches for intent resolution but cannot detect lot-size mismatch — agent will post another 7 USDC intent at next wake unless the mission CLAUDE.md is corrected

Incorrect diagnosis of LP non-fill: oracle price vs lot-size floor

Agent's w23 log states 'LP may come alive at this lower oracle' — but LP-Maker minimum is 12 USDC regardless of price. 7 USDC lots are always below the floor. This reasoning will produce a 5th identical expiry.

Add to rebalancer-lior CLAUDE.md: 'LP-Maker minimum lot is 12 USDC; BTC DCA slices must be ≥ 12 USDC to be LP-fillable. Do not post below this threshold and attribute failure to oracle price.'

4 consecutive failed BTC DCA slices with zero lot-size adaptation

w20 → w21 (#777 expired) → w22 (#831 expired, agent logged '3rd attempt') → w23 (#887, almost certainly expired). Mission is DCA progress; zero fills = zero progress. BTC remains -7.4pp underweight.

Bump BTC DCA slice to 12–15 USDC to enter LP-fillable range. If budget constrains lot size below 12 USDC, document that BTC DCA is blocked until budget allows a fillable slice and shift focus to stock rebalancing (sAAPL underweight -15pp, stocks open in ~36 min).

Stacker-Massimo

Bid is tracking oracle correctly (posted at oracle×0.99 when oracle=$207.92; oracle unchanged). No sweepable sell-side.

Summary: Pre-open hold continues correctly. Watcher countdown has advanced from nextFallbackMin=189 (last run) to 129 now — consistent with ~60 min elapsed, no drift. Still armed (pidAlive=true) for epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC, ~99 min away from ~11:51 UTC now). Portfolio unchanged: 0.004928 sNVDA ($1.02), 9.00 USDC free. Both settled deals were with LP-Maker-Matheus

Watcher is correctly armed to fire at 13:30 UTC equity open (epoch 1781098200, fallback at 14:00 UTC). LP-Maker-Matheus is live with sNVDA quotes (12 USDC lot posted), and Stacker has 2 confirmed fills with LP-Maker proving the sub-lot fill path works. 9.00 USDC remains to deploy at 0.50 USDC/wake (~18 more wakes to exhaust budget).

Pre-market window; CLAUDE.md enforces 09:30–16:00 ET only. No fills possible now by design. 2 settled deals both with LP-Maker-Matheus confirm the path clears at open.

Sound and solving the right problem. w20 correctly identified 1.01% oracle drift and rotated intent 752→753 at refreshed price (oracle×0.99). w21–w26 held cleanly on market-hours logic with no redundant on-chain action. No churn — 22 repeat wakes are pre-open holds, not re-deriving the same bad move.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) via 30-second poll loop

fallback at 14:00 UTC (open + 30 min) if poll misses

Both settled deals were LP-Maker fills; LP has live sNVDA quote (12 USDC lot) and is confirmed able to fill Stacker's 0.50 USDC slices

none — pre-market, trading correctly blocked by CLAUDE.md market-hours rule; LP-Maker's sNVDA quote is live but Stacker cannot and should not act before 13:30 UTC

Fires exactly at epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) — the only moment Stacker is allowed to act

30-second poll cadence is appropriate: lightweight, zero-LLM, no book dependency

Fallback at open+30 min (14:00 UTC) is a sensible safety net; nextFallbackMin=129 confirms it resolves to ~14:00 UTC from current ~11:51 UTC

No book-watching needed for a pure DCA mission — correctly omitted

fallbackMs when already past open evaluates to 30 min from invocation time, which is correct but implicit — a comment would prevent future confusion

No functional change needed; the script is mission-fit. Optional: add inline comment explaining the post-open fallbackMs edge case for maintainability.

LP lot-size headroom shrinks as sNVDA price rises

LP posts 12 USDC lots; Stacker posts 0.50 USDC. Confirmed fills show LP accepts sub-lot today, but if LP tightens minimums or oracle price moves, 0.50 USDC may become un-fillable. Currently 9.00 USDC / 18 wakes remaining.

Monitor: if next fill at 13:30 fails despite LP live, check whether LP minimum crossed 0.50 USDC threshold and adjust slice size in CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

Only actionable signal is SSV sell-strength, which requires owning SSV to post/fill. No buy-dip on any asset. USDC buffe

buy-dip ≥1.5% on any asset (fallback 17:31 UTC)

Summary: No buy-dip has crossed ≥1.5% since w19 (13:31 UTC); w20 (15:31 UTC) confirmed same — SSV sell-strength still blocked by zero position, sNVDA doubly blocked (zero position + market hours). Key change since last summary: LP-Maker is now confirmed live with 11 open intents across all 6 watched assets, so if a dip fires, swing-nikita now has a viable counterpart

Swing-nikita is behaving correctly: 19 wakes, 0 trades since w11, $100.18 portfolio, zero 5h burn — it's patient, not broken. The only structural gap is that both sell signals (sNVDA/SSV) are permanently blocked until a buy-dip fires first, and no buy-dip >1.5% has materialized. LP-Maker's return resolves the fillability problem that killed the w12 SSV intent; the market just hasn't given swing-nikita a trigger yet.

SSV trigger level = 2.01 × 0.985 = 1.9799; last w20 oracle read showed SSV above that. sNVDA/SSV sell-strength requires non-zero position — agent has 0 in both. 3 lifetime settled deals, all pre-w12; no deal since book went thin.

Sound and correctly solving the right problem. Each wake correctly identifies the exact blocking condition (zero position, market hours, no dip threshold breach) and declines to act. No false positives, no churn, no re-posting of unfillable intents since w13. The one caveat: sell-strength signals on sNVDA/SSV will remain permanently theoretical until a buy-dip fires to build inventory — the agent

Oracle price crosses trailing_avg × 0.985 on any of BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT (60s poll)

MISSING: no sell-strength trigger — if a buy-dip fires and swing-nikita acquires a position, the watcher won't proactively fire for sell-strength; relies on nex

Has open quotes on all 6 watched assets; would fill buy-dip swaps at oracle mid

LIVE — 11 open intents confirmed, $82.83

DCA buyer posting small BTC slices; could cross a buy-dip intent but 7 USDC floor mismatch ongoing

Concentrates into strongest mover; could be counterparty if swing-nikita's sell aligns with momentum buy

None — watcher polls oracle every 60s and no fireWake has triggered since w19 (13:31 UTC, ~122 min ago). No verifiable dip >1.5% on any watched asset. LP-Maker's recovery doesn't itself create a dip signal; it only restores fillability if one occurs.

Fires on the exact condition the agent acts on: buy-dip ≥1.5% below per-asset trailing avg

60s poll cadence — appropriate for a dislocation hunter (not sub-minute noise, not multi-hour lag)

Zero-LLM, deterministic threshold math; can't false-fire on 'book non-empty'

2h hard fallback ensures the agent re-evaluates trailing averages even if no dip fires

TRAILING averages are hardcoded at arm time (w20, 15:31 UTC) and stay static for up to 2h — if oracle prices drift materially before the 17:31 fallback, trigger

No sell-strength trigger — after a successful buy-dip, the watcher won't fire proactively to sell the acquired position

Compute trailing averages fresh each poll iteration from oracle (or use a rolling window from the price feed) rather than snapshotting at arm time — eliminates up to 2h of trigger drift with zero cadence or structure change.

TRAILING averages stale up to 2h

Averages are snapshot at wake time and held fixed until next wake or fallback. A 2% price drift over 90 min could make the ≥1.5% threshold miss or false-trigger.

Fetch fresh oracle prices each loop iteration and compute trailing_avg as a rolling mean (e.g. EMA or last-N-reads average) rather than a one-time snapshot in the wake script header.

Sell-strength permanently blocked — not escalated as a mission constraint

sNVDA/SSV sell signals have appeared in every wake since at least w14 but will never execute until a buy-dip fires to build inventory. The agent correctly declines to act but doesn't flag this as a structural dead-end in its reasoning output.

Low priority given correct behavior, but mission CLAUDE.md could note: 'sell-strength signals are latent until inventory exists; if no buy-dip fires in N wakes, re-evaluate asset list or threshold.'

Vulture-Andrew

Summary: LP recovery unblocked vulture immediately: rebalance buys 935/932 (sNVDA/sMSFT) settled instantly at w63 (13:47) as deals 98/99, +$0.28 edge — confirming LP was the binding constraint. Bait sells 874 sAAPL 1%, 875 sMSFT 1%, 876 SSV 2.21% remain open; LP does not take bait sells (it's a neutral maker, not a directional taker), so fills depend on momentum/swin

LP return directly triggered instant fills on rebalance buys 935/932 (+$0.28, deals 98/99) at w63. The 8 bait sells still open are now waiting on directional takers (momentum/swing/stacker all live at market open) — LP cannot fill bait sells by design. No fill blockage remains; this is normal patient bait posture.

9 of 11 recent settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; rebalance buys 935/932 settled instantly once LP returned (w63 13:47); bait sells 874/875/876 require directional takers not LP — momentum/swing/stacker live but haven't crossed yet this cycle

Sound and solving the right problem. w63 correctly posted rebalance buys immediately on LP recovery and captured +$0.28 instantly. w64 correctly pruned 950 (eroded to 0.36% below 0.5% floor) and 941 (stale after 0.31% oracle drift). Bait sell hold decision (≥1% with longer TTL vs rivals at 1% floor) is quantitatively justified per playbook. No churn detected.

scan-edges: new takeable edge ≥1% (excluding pre-seeded honeypots 779/836/869)

check-my-quotes: cancelCmds.length > 0 (erosion/undercut)

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest intent expiry

MISSING: no immediate trigger when LP posts a matching quote — relies on 30s poll cycle, so LP quote arrival can lag up to 30s before vulture fires

Primary swap counterparty (9/11 recent deals); fills rebalance buys instantly on return — confirmed deals 98/99

Secondary swap counterparty, 3/11 recent settled deals — unknown agent but reliably active

Could take sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA bait sells if these are the strongest movers this wake; directional taker

Fades dislocations — could take vulture's bait sells if asset stretched above trailing avg

Only buys sNVDA at 0.50 USDC/wake — lot size too small for vulture's bait sells

Takes mispriced swaps on fast CEX feed; could cross vulture's bait sells if oracle lags

None. w57–w62 correctly report no takeable edges ≥1%. Watcher can see the book via scan-edges (measurable). Honeypot pre-seed (779/836/869) prevents false positives. Hold decisions in w57/w60/w61 are correct per playbook.

Fires on new takeable edge ≥1% via scan-edges — directly aligned with vulture's pick-off mission

check-my-quotes erosion/undercut trigger prevents free pick-off of stale quotes

Pre-expiry trigger (~5 min before soonest expiry) protects against TTL-lapse waste

seenEdgeIds pre-seeded with confirmed honeypots (779/836/869) — zero-LLM guard

30s poll cadence + 2h hard fallback — appropriate for opportunistic agent

30s poll means up to 30s lag between LP posting a matching quote and vulture firing — suboptimal for competitive fill race

No explicit LP-quote-arrival event trigger; relies on scan-edges polling rather than reactive signal

Add a lightweight LP-quote monitor: check if LP's open quotes include any asset vulture holds in rebalance deficit, and fire immediately if a match appears — closes the 30s lag window that could cost fills in a competitive market-open envir

[object Object] logging in wake descriptions

w59, w61, w62, w63, w64 all show '[object Object]' in the wake log summary line — an object is being string-interpolated without .toString() or JSON.stringify(). Degrades historical analysis readability.

Find the wake-log string concatenation where the state/result object is interpolated and replace with JSON.stringify(obj) or obj.summary / obj.action fields.

Realized PnL -$1.20 on 34 deals at 15.1% pool spend ($22.82/5h)

34 deals with $55.43 lifetime token cost and -$1.20 realized PnL means edge capture is not yet covering LLM costs. The +$0.28 from deals 98/99 is directionally correct but the rate needs to accelerate now LP is live.

Monitor PnL-per-deal over next 5 wakes with LP active; if bait sells remain unfilled >60 min into market-open epoch, lower bait floor from 1% to 0.75% to attract momentum/swing flow.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

LP LIVE, BINARY DARK

dominant — LP-Maker-Matheus 86 settled deals; arb-hunter 11; rebalancer/vulture/stacker contributing; 11 open quotes

20 total (14 settled + 6 live in-flight Bear↔Mimic); market frozen, Bear crashed 272+ min

15+ settled (writer↔taker); supply dry post-deal 100, writer in dual halt

0 — index-maker never initialized, 9 cycles; index-taker permanently starved

1 open (external 0xF57a…9444, 4165m TTL)

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {0xBd6a, 0x5F79, Arb-Hunter-Tom, Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew, Stacker-Massimo}

LIVE — 11 open quotes BTC/ETH/sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT/SSV; 86 settled deals; concurren

FROZEN — Bear crashed (armed=false/pidAlive=false, 272+ min); 6 in-flight deals

DRY — deal 100 settled (taker +$7.76 PnL); writer in dual halt (drawdown -19.26%

Index-Maker (uninitialized) → Index-Taker

DEAD — index-maker wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 tokens across 9 cycles;

Bear-Yosher crashed (armed=false/pidAlive=false, 272+ min)

BinaryBet market fully frozen; Mimic-Ljuba drops from 1 to 0 reliable counterparties; Arb-Hunter-Tom binary fills blocke

14/14 Mimic settled deals ↔ Bear-Yosher; arb-hunter 0/11 binary fills lifetime; Mimic reliableCounterparties=0 this cycle; book confirmed empty of BinaryBets wakes w54–w59

Rebalancer-Lior posts 7 USDC BTC lots below LP-Maker minimum floor (12 USDC)

5 consecutive expired BTC intents (#777, #831, #887, current open ~36m TTL at observation); agent misdiagnoses blocker a

LP minimum=12 USDC confirmed; all intents at 7 USDC; w23 rationale: 'LP may come alive at this lower oracle' (incorrect); #777 expired, #831 expired, #887 near-certainly expired

LP-Maker watcher Node loop fires concurrent sessions without deduplication

Intents 1012/1013/1014 cancelled mid-session (w68); full book rebuild at ~$2 gas each (w67, 10 txns); ETH ask and BTC as

w67: 'Concurrent sessions mutually cancelled each other's work, requiring full book rebuild. 10 total txns. Gas ~$2'; w68: '#1012 SSV bid #1013 sAAPL bid #1014 sMSFT bid disappeared (concurrent sessio

Index-Maker never initialized (wake_script_source=null, 9 consecutive cycles)

Index-Taker wake condition (LONG IndexBasket intent present) has never been satisfied; both agents occupy board slots wi

9 cycles: both agents armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=$0; index-taker settled_deals='not-indexed'

Option-Writer-Matheus dual halt: drawdown -19.26% (threshold -20%) + 7 consecutive unfilled option intents

Option supply dry; Option-Taker-Matheus armed (nextFallbackMin=105) but no intents to fill — market cleared once (deal 1

w35: drawdown hit -19.26%, intents 933/938 self-canceled; 7 unfilled options including #951 (8 USDC collateral, 0.24 premium, 60min window, no taker); option-taker w23 (14:56): 0 audited Option intent

Bear-Yosher crashed — BinaryBet market dark 272+ min

Bear-Yosher armed=false/pidAlive=false, 6 live in-flight deals (safe, oracle-resolved independently). Mimic-Ljuba is armed and waiting but has 0 reliable counterparties — it can't post new bets without a counter-side. Arb-Hunter-Tom has 0 binary fills in 11 lifetime settled deals; Bear's absence means that remains 0.

Bear watcher: armed=false, pidAlive=false; 6 live Bear↔Mimic deals; Mimic reliableCounterparties=0; arb-hunter 0 binary fills; book empty of BinaryBets w54–w59

Restart Bear-Yosher immediately; investigate crash trigger — last confirmed SDK issue was promise-drop (w29b/w30 concurrent fires); check if that pattern recurred or produced an unhandled rejection

Rebalancer-Lior 7 USDC lot guaranteed-fail — 5th consecutive cycle

LP-Maker minimum is 12 USDC; Rebalancer posts at 7 USDC every cycle. Agent misdiagnoses the blocker as oracle price, not lot-size floor — so it will keep failing indefinitely. 0xBd6a took small lots in 2 of 8 lifetime deals but is not confirmed present in current book.

LP minimum=12 USDC; intents #777/#831/#887 at 7 USDC all expired; w23 log explicitly blames oracle not floor; 0 7-USDC fills from LP in any cycle

Update Rebalancer-Lior CLAUDE.md: raise DCA lot size to ≥12 USDC; or add pre-post check — if LP is sole active BTC taker and lot < floor, skip this wake

LP-Maker concurrent session collisions — recurring gas waste, quote gaps

w65/w67/w68 all hit concurrent session collisions. w67 alone: 10 txns, ~$2 gas for a full book rebuild. Intents 1012/1013/1014 dropped w68. ETH ask and BTC ask missing from 11-quote book. Pattern recurs each session cycle.

w67: 'Concurrent sessions mutually cancelled, full book rebuild, 10 total txns, Gas ~$2'; w68: '#1012 SSV/#1013 sAAPL/#1014 sMSFT disappeared'; 10/12 live quotes confirmed

Add session-deduplication lock in Node watcher loop (file lock or atomic flag) to prevent concurrent fires on the same deadline; alternatively add intent-existence pre-check before each post so collisions self-heal without full rebuild

Index-Maker/Index-Taker pair dead 9 consecutive cycles — no path to activation

Index-Maker has never run: wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 tokens, no on-chain footprint across all 9 observer cycles. Index-Taker's sole wake condition (LONG IndexBasket intent present) has never been satisfied and never will be until index-maker posts.

9 cycles identical state for both: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0, tokens=$0; index-taker settled_deals='not-indexed'

Initialize Index-Maker: write wake_script/current.ts, configure CLAUDE.md mission, arm the watcher — this unblocks Index-Taker automatically

Option market dry — writer in dual halt, taker armed with nothing to fill

Option-Writer halted both engines: drawdown -19.26% (0.74% from -20% threshold) from 4 failed sMSFT swaps, plus 7 consecutive unfilled option intents (engine 2). Option-Taker took deal 100 (+$7.76 PnL, ETH put ITM) but found 0 new options in 3 subsequent wakes.

w35: drawdown -19.26%, intents 933/938 self-canceled; deal 100 settled confirmed; option-taker w23 (14:56): 0 audited options; 7 unfilled writer intents including #951

Review option-writer sMSFT rotation failure (4 failed swaps 530/533/764/804); if LP is now live, retry sMSFT leg — recovery above -20% threshold re-enables engine 1 and resumes option supply for taker

Stacker-Massimo state ambiguous post-market-open fire

Stacker was armed for 13:30 UTC open (epoch 1781098200); now shows armed=false/pidAlive=false, 0 burn/5h, last wake 122 min ago. Cannot confirm whether it fired cleanly and completed, or silently died without posting. Two settled deals (both with LP-Maker-Matheus) confirm the path works — but this cycle's fire is unverified.

watcher: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; 0 burn/5h; last wake 122 min ago (orient); 2 lifetime deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus

Check Stacker-Massimo logs for wake at ~13:30 UTC: did it post a buy intent? If silent death, investigate and re-arm before next market open (09:30 ET tomorrow)

Restart Bear-Yosher — BinaryBet market frozen 272+ min, Mimic-Ljuba idle, Arb-Hunter binary fills blocked; investigate SDK promise-drop recurrence as crash trigger before restarting

Fix Rebalancer-Lior CLAUDE.md: raise DCA lot to ≥12 USDC — 5 guaranteed-fail intents at 7 USDC while LP floor is 12 USDC; agent is burning tokens and TTL on structurally impossible fills

Add session-deduplication lock to LP-Maker watcher: concurrent fires are cancelling each other's intents and burning ~$2 gas per rebuild (w65/w67/w68 all affected)

Initialize Index-Maker: write wake_script + CLAUDE.md after 9 null cycles — the only action that unblocks Index-Taker

Verify Stacker-Massimo 13:30 UTC fire result and confirm Option-Writer drawdown recovery path — both are time-sensitive (next market open + drawdown threshold 0.74% from halt)

Better overall: LP-Maker confirmed live (11 open intents, $82.83/5h, multiple swap settlements with 0xBd6a/0x5F79/Rebalancer/Vulture) reversing the 931-min offline gap from last run; bear-yosher newly crashed (armed=false/pidAlive=false, 272 min, health=stuck) with 6 live BinaryBet deals in flight,

LP-Maker live and dominant: 11 open swap quotes across BTC/ETH/sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT/SSV, $82.83/5h burn — confirm stability and quote coverage

Bear-Yosher crashed with 6 live BinaryBet deals ongoing (counterparty Mimic-Ljuba still armed) — dark agent, in-flight deals, unknown crash trigger

Rebalancer-Lior 5th consecutive 7 USDC BTC buy (open intent, 52m TTL) — LP minimum is 12 USDC floor, certain to fail again; persistent config bug

Vulture-Andrew crashed (armed=false/pidAlive=false) after $10.65/5h burn — bait intents 874/875/876 now 0 open_intents; clean exit or error?

Stacker-Massimo was armed for 13:30 UTC market open, now unarmed (armed=false/pidAlive=false, 0 burn/5h, last wake 122 min ago) — fired and re-armed or silently died?

With LP-Maker now posting 11 live quotes across all 6 universe assets, has arb-hunter found and taken any CEX-vs-onchain edge on these new LP quotes since LP recovery, and is fill rate improving beyond the ~9% post-recovery baseline (4/134

Armed=false, pidAlive=false, health=stuck, 272 min since last wake — when did the process die relative to its 6 live BinaryBet deals with Mimic-Ljuba, and is there evidence of a crash trigger vs. a clean exit after posting?

9th consecutive null-state check: is there any change whatsoever — file timestamp, config delta, on-chain activity — vs. the byte-identical prior 8 cycles?

9th consecutive null-state check: any change since cycle 8, and does index-maker's continued null state confirm index-taker is correctly dormant (dependency intact, no intake trigger)?

Prior summary said offline 931 min; current shows armed=true, 11 open intents, $82.83/5h — confirm when LP recovered, whether pidAlive=false is normal for this watcher pattern, and whether the 11 live quotes span all 6 universe assets at co

Bear-Yosher crashed with 0 open intents — can Mimic continue on its 6 live in-flight deals, and when those Bear bets settle/expire, will Mimic have any new binary/option intents to fire on, or does it go dark?

Last wake 138 min ago, armed (nextFallbackMin=107) — with LP live for 90+ min across all 6 assets, has any asset cleared the 2pp relative-gap threshold since LP recovery, or is the market genuinely flat?

w20 took ETH put dealId 100 (strike $1,631.46, $0.24 premium) — is that deal live or settled, and has option-writer-matheus posted any new option since then that option-taker should evaluate?

sMSFT rotation was stuck at 4 failed swaps (530/533/764/804) pre-LP-recovery — with LP now live, did any sMSFT swap settle, and has option-writer fired a new wake since LP recovery?

Watcher is delta-only (fires on new binary/option intents, 1691 min fallback) — bear-yosher is crashed and posting 0 new bets; is there any other active source of new binary/option intents that would trigger polymarket-ljuba's watcher befor

Open intent gives 7 USDC → 0.00011241 BTC (52m TTL) is the 5th consecutive sub-12 USDC BTC buy — LP minimum is a 12 USDC lot-size floor; did w24's reasoning acknowledge this constraint and plan a fix, or is it repeating the identical misdia

Was armed (pidAlive=true) for 13:30 UTC market open per prior summary, now unarmed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 burn/5h, last wake 122 min ago) — did it fire at market open and complete cleanly, or did it silently die before executing?

Last wake 17 min ago, armed (nextFallbackMin=102) — with LP now live on sNVDA/SSV/sMSFT/BTC/ETH, has any asset crossed the ≥1.5% below-average buy threshold since LP recovery, and are the sell-strength signals on sNVDA/SSV still permanently

Crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false) after $10.65/5h burn, open_intents now 0 — did bait intents 874 (sAAPL 1%), 875 (sMSFT 1%), 876 (SSV 2.21%) settle or expire, and did the crash follow a clean mission-cycle exit or an error?

rebalancer-lior: Raise BTC DCA lot size from 7 USDC to ≥12 USDC to meet LP-Maker's minimum — 5 consecutive failures confirm this is a config bug, not a market condition.

bear-yosher: Diagnose crash (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 272 min, health=stuck) — 6 live BinaryBet deals with Mimic-Ljuba are in flight and the agent is dark; manual restart likely needed.

vulture-andrew: Check whether crash after $10.65/5h burn was a clean cycle exit (no restart needed) or an error condition requiring restart.

stacker-massimo: Verify whether it fired at 13:30 UTC market open and completed or died silently — 0 burn and unarmed with 2 total deals is ambiguous.

index-maker/index-taker: 9 consecutive null cycles, $0 lifetime tokens, no wakes ever — escalate boot diagnosis; these agents block the entire IndexBasket market and show zero sign of life.