account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

bestTake=null on both surfaces. No binary latency take (OTM, far from window). No fundable swap edge.

new intent >#757 or bet #757 in 30-min window + CEX BTC ≥$63,817.50, or 30-min fallback

Summary: Agent is ARMED and actively hunting (105 wakes, fallback 30 min, pidAlive=true). Wakes w99–w106 show disciplined checks: no binary bets near-decided by CEX oracle, no swap edges ≥10bps fundable. Reasoning sound, no loops or churn. Zero fills (2 settled / 105 = 1.9% fill rate) due to LP-Maker-Matheus offline (primary swap counterparty, eliminates edge opportu

arb-hunter-tom is properly armed and reasoning sound (disciplined margin/expiry/in-money checks, no loops), but has zero opportunities: LP-Maker-Matheus (primary counterparty) offline 859 min eliminates swap edges, and binaries are OTM far outside take window (e.g., binary #757 -3.135% OTM with 24h to expiry, w106). The 1.9% fill rate reflects market starvation, not agent failure.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 859 min (Step 1). Recent settled: 1 deal w/ vulture-andrew; no binary takes since bot armed. Current book: binary #757 OTM -3.135%, 24h to expiry (far outside 30-min take window). No swap edges ≥10bps with fundable intent matching (w99–w106).

Sound. w99: checks 'No binary bet has CEX taker side in money' + 'No swap edge ≥10bps with fundable matching intent.' w100: 'BTC $2,386 below $63,500 strike — not near-decided.' w103: 'SSV +10bps at floor.' w106: 'Binary #757 OTM -3.135% … far from in-the-money.' Agent is solving the right problem (take near-decided binaries, high-edge swaps) and correctly rejecting low-probability plays. No re-de

Binary bet in [30-sec, 30-min] window AND CEX price suggests taker in-the-money ≥0.5% margin

30-min fallback (ensures regular wakes even if no new intents)

Primary counterparty for swap edges; offline 859 min (Step 1), eliminating primary opportunity class.

Posts swaps and BinaryBets; arb-hunter is taker-only, could take if vulture posts high-edge swaps or near-decided binaries. Already settled

awake (health=ok, 28 deals, recent activ

Posts BinaryBets below oracle; arb-hunter could take if bear's bets drift near-decided by CEX oracle. However, no current near-decided posts

Posts delivered swaps; could provide edge opportunities if posting >10bps edges. Currently no fundable edges visible.

None detected. Wakes w99–w106 show agent checking full book and correctly passing on low-probability plays: binary #757 is OTM -3.135% (outside 30-min window, w106); BTC binaries require +$2–2.4k moves (w101, w100); SSV swap at 10bps floor (w103, below 10bps threshold). Agent is not missing opportunities; the market is not presenting them.

30-min fallback ensures regular checks even if no new intents (patient cadence, fits latency arb mission)

Binary take-window check ([30-sec, 30-min] before expiry) correctly scopes near-term opportunities

CEX margin guard (MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT = 0.5%) protects against stale feeds and micro-edges

isAbove logic correct: taker bets opposite side (isAbove=true → taker wins when CEX < strike)

Reads full open-intent book, not just new intents; baseline tracking prevents race conditions

No telemetry distinguishing 'book is empty' from 'book non-empty but no takes': agent can't signal whether it's waiting for market to wake vs. correctly rejecti

Add log/metric: 'book size: N intents, M binary bets, K swaps' on each wake. This lets operators diagnose 'market asleep' vs. 'agent correctly waiting' without reading logs. One line, high value for fleet observability.

armWatcher promise-drop unfixed (Step 1 infrastructure bug)

LP-Maker-Matheus and Option-Writer offline 843–859 min because armWatcher does not return deadline promise to orchestrator, blocking fallback execution. arb-hunter-tom has fallback set (nextFallbackMin=6, pidAlive=true), but if this bug hits it, the agent will hang despite correct config.

Fix armWatcher promise handling in SDK (sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js): ensure deadline promise is returned before runWatchLoop completes. This is blocking 2+ agents fleet-wide.

Missing book-state telemetry

Wake-script checks for opportunities but doesn't emit 'book size / binary count / swap count' per wake. Operators cannot distinguish 'market is asleep' from 'agent correctly waiting on thin book' without reading raw logs.

Log 'book: N intents, M binaries, K swaps; L fundable edges' on each wake. One line, clarifies fleet health diagnostics.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Mission: maintain exactly one resting crypto-BELOW bet at all times. Intent 756 confirmed filled. No book bets to take.

deal 74 near-expiry OR intent 757 fill/expiry OR price adverse OR new binary OR 4h

Summary: Mission executing correctly (13 settled all BELOW, crypto-down conviction via BinaryBets, reliable Mimic partnership 10/13 deals). But execution threatened by unfixed **core SDK bugs**: (1) armWatcher promise-drop caused w29b & w30 to fire simultaneously on same intent-fill (06-10 04:09:00), posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets violating the 'exactly one resting

Bear's crypto-down mission logic is sound (13/13 on-mission all BELOW, Mimic partnership reliable at 76%). Execution undermined by unfixed core bugs: (1) armWatcher promise-drop enabled w29b/w30 race (posted duplicate bets, risk of recurrence); (2) snapshot.myOpenIntents broken state (third incident, forces workarounds). No agent-scope fix possible; core team must patch promise-drop and snapshot. Market is thin (Mimic not overlapping in wake time), fleet-level issue, not agent miss.

armWatcher promise-drop (unfixed core SDK bug) allowed w29b & w30 to fire simultaneously on same intent-fill trigger (06-10 04:09:00 UTC intent #742), posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets. Violates mission invariant 'maintain exactly one resting bet'. Not a deal-formation or counterparty problem (13 set

Sound. Agent correctly identifies and logs mission violations (w29b: 'no resting bet, must post'; w30: 'wake 29b and 30 both ran simultaneously'). Maintains crypto-down conviction (all deals BELOW). Watcher logic is well-reasoned for mission: fires on expiries (on-time), adverse moves (halt on rally), new binaries (take opportunity), fallback (patience). No churn or re-derivation. The **failure is

Deal 74 near-expiry (BTC BELOW $63,500, 5min before ~10:17 UTC)

Intent 757 resolution (fill/expiry/cancel)

ETH adverse >+1.5% to $1,656.75 (halt on rally)

BTC adverse >+1.5% to $62,428 (halt on rally)

New aligned BinaryBet on book (opportunity to take)

Took 10/13 bear's BinaryBet offers (76%). Crypto-down ally, tight 1v1 partnership.

ok (fleet roster: 12 deals, health ok; l

Took 1 swap (deal ~82ish, realized -$0.36 PnL). Not a primary binary counterparty.

stuck (843 min offline per Step 1 health

Book starvation w31–w33: intent #743 expired unfilled ('no aligned binaries to take'); intent #746 expired unfilled; w33 'no book bets to take'. Mimic-Ljuba not posting new binaries while bear is awake — wake-time mismatch, not agent miss. This is **market structure** (thin book, timing), not agent fault. Agent correctly waits for counterparty; no execution lever if book is empty.

Fires on deal expiries (deal 74: exact epoch time for settlement)

Fires on adverse price moves (>+1.5% rally = halt signal per mission)

Fires on new aligned binaries (discovery loop on seenBinaryIds)

4h fallback prevents infinite patience, log bloat, graceful re-sync

Zero-LLM, deterministic SDK tools only (no inference cost)

Mimic-specific watcher: currently fires on any new BinaryBet via generic readOpenIntents polling; could prioritize Mimic's orders for faster 1v1 matching (optio

No critical changes needed. Watcher is fit-to-mission. Optional: Add Mimic-address filter to readOpenIntents query, or set up Mimic-specific intent listener for interrupt-driven matching vs polling. This would reduce latency in w31–w33 book

armWatcher promise-drop causes duplicate simultaneous wakes (w29b/w30 race)

Both w29b (06-10T04:05) and w30 (06-10T04:09) fired on the same intent-fill event (intent #742 filled → deal 83). Both logged 'no resting bet → must post', posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets. Violates mission invariant 'exactly one resting bet'. Promise-drop unfixed per Step 1; cascading to LP-Maker/O

Core: fix armWatcher so promise resolves to orchestrator before next wake fires. Prevent concurrent wake execution on same trigger. Add e2e test: simultaneous trigger (deal expiry + intent fill) → ensure only one wake fires.

snapshot.myOpenIntents broken (third incident in w28)

w28 logs 'snapshot.myOpenIntents=[] is a known bug (third incident). Correct check: compare wallet USDC to state.json value'. Agent forced to work around with manual wallet/locked checks instead of relying on snapshot state. This causes false 'no resting intent' reads (w31–w33 re-posts), violating i

Core: fix snapshot.myOpenIntents to correctly reflect agent's open intents. Likely state-sync lag or caching issue in SDK. Add e2e test: post intent → check snapshot.myOpenIntents immediately → verify it reflects the posted intent.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: Index-Maker remains completely non-functional — wake_script_source=null, armed=false, 0 wakes since last summary. Bootstrap failure: the wake script was never deployed to the agent at all. This is distinct from the fleet's armWatcher promise-drop issue; this is a deployment/orchestrator bootstrap level failure. Index-taker has the identical failure pattern,

Wake script source=null; agent never armed. This is a core bootstrap/deployment failure, not an agent logic bug. Both index agents blocked identically, pointing to a shared bootstrap issue in the orchestrator or deployment system. No fix until core unpicks this.

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 recent_wakes, nextFallbackMin=null. Agent never received its watch script — bootstrap/deployment chain broke before agent armed.

N/A — agent never armed. Cannot evaluate mission-fit reasoning because the watch script was never deployed. The mission is sound (publish IndexBasket LONG intents), but the agent cannot execute it without a watch script.

MISSING: entire watch script not deployed (source=null). Agent never booted.

Intended SHORT counterparty for IndexBasket trades, but also has identical bootstrap failure (never armed).

unmeasurable: agent never armed, cannot observe market or post intents

Wake script not deployed (source=null). Agent never booted.

No fallback (nextFallbackMin=null). No recovery if bootstrap fails.

Core: (1) Verify watch script files exist for index-maker in codebase; (2) Check deployment system is reading and populating wake_script_source correctly; (3) Audit bootstrap config—is the agent-to-watch-script mapping wired for index agent

Index-maker wake script never deployed (bootstrap failure)

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, 0 wakes. Index-taker has identical failure. Bootstrap/deployment system did not populate or load the watch script. The entire IndexBasket market is blocked because both maker and taker never armed.

Audit core bootstrap: (1) Confirm watch script file exists for index-maker; (2) Verify deployment system populates wake_script_source from the file; (3) Check if index agents use a separate bootstrap path and whether it's wired/functional; (4) If it's a schema issue (null vs empty vs missing field),

Wake script source=null; agent never armed. This is a core bootstrap/deployment failure, not an agent logic bug. Both index agents blocked identically, pointing to a shared bootstrap issue in the orchestrator or deployment system. No fix until core unpicks this.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: Unchanged: 0 wakes, never armed (wake_script_source=null). Correctly standing by as responder—mission is sound (wait for Index-Maker's LONG IndexBasket intents, audit via custom-deal skill, take SHORT on ACCEPT). Two core blockers prevent trading: (1) Index-Maker offline 859min due to armWatcher promise-drop, (2) Index-Taker's watcher script never deployed (

Index-Taker's responder logic is correct and properly waiting. Two core issues block any trades: Index-Maker (sole counterparty) is offline 859min with 0 intents posted, and Index-Taker's watcher was never deployed. Once Index-Maker posts intents and Index-Taker's watcher is live, audit-and-take should execute.

Index-Maker offline 859min (armWatcher promise-drop), 0 IndexBasket intents posted; Index-Taker never armed (wake_script_source=null)

Not applicable—0 wakes, no decisions made. Prior summary correctly identifies standing-by state.

MISSING: Watcher script not deployed (wake_script_source=null) — needs trigger on IndexBasket intent detection

Sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents; mission-complementary SHORT taker.

NO — offline 859min, armWatcher promise-

None — zero intents posted by Index-Maker (offline), no opportunities to measure.

Watcher not deployed; no trigger on IndexBasket intent detection

Deploy Index-Taker's watcher to detect IndexBasket intents → trigger audit-custom-deal → post SHORT on ACCEPT.

Index-Maker offline 859min (armWatcher promise-drop)

Sole counterparty blocked by promise-drop bug; 0 intents posted → no work for Index-Taker. Distinct from Index-Taker's own bootstrap failure.

Fix core armWatcher promise-drop bug to unblock Index-Maker deployment.

Index-Taker bootstrap failure: watcher never deployed

wake_script_source=null — responder never armed. Deployment pipeline did not provision watcher. Separate from promise-drop; a distinct bootstrap issue.

Deploy Index-Taker's watcher script (detect IndexBasket intent → audit-custom-deal → POST SHORT if ACCEPT). Can proceed once Index-Maker is online.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Two-sided depth mission-critical: expired phantom quotes = loss of fillable book. Oracle mids stable (no volTerm). Inven

quote expiry (~45 min), oracle breach (±15–50 bps), or new fillable intent

Summary: LP-Maker remains offline 861 min since 06-09T17:19 (w44) due to core armWatcher promise-drop: the 1h fallback was armed but the promise was never returned to the orchestrator, so the scheduled restart never fired. Zero tokens moved in 5h, zero open intents, but wake-script logic is sound (quote expiry watch, oracle guards, fillable intake only). Manual resta

LP-Maker offline 861 min (06-09T17:19 w44 → now) due to core armWatcher promise-drop. Fallback never executed: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Cannot self-restart. Cascading impact: momentum-nikita #745 ($51.25 USDC SSV swap) unfilled 6h+, rebalancer intents #669/#670 expired unfilled, 60% of deal flow cut (84 settled / 757 posted = 11.1% funnel).

Core armWatcher promise-drop: w44 log shows 'Watcher armed' at 06-09T17:19 with 1h fallback (60 * 60_000 ms in wake_script_source), but promise never returned to orchestrator. Expected fallback fire ~18:19 UTC never happened. Now armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null (no fallback schedul

Wake-script is well-reasoned for mission: watches quote expiry (~45 min, critical for LP depth refresh), oracle breach (±15–50 bps, prudent risk guard), and new fillable intents filtered by HOLD set (BTC/ETH/USDC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT—only takes what fits). Zero-LLM, prevents false wakes. But core SDK promise-drop breaks the watcher entirely — it never arms in the orchestrator, so agent can't wake

Quote expiry (~45 min window from post time)

New network intent fillable by HOLD set (BTC/ETH/USDC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

MISSING: 1h scheduled fallback (armed but promise-drop prevents execution)

7 settled swaps; hunts LP mispricing. Starved now: no new LP depth to pick off.

3 settled swaps; fades dislocations via LP bid-ask. Blocked: no fresh quotes.

2 settled swaps (deals #28, #31); patient DCA, primary LP taker. Intent flow blocked.

Intent #745 (SSV, $51.25 USDC) unfilled 6h+ — mission-critical swap waiting for LP depth.

2 settled swaps (deals #15, #16); USDC→sNVDA budget stuck. Also trapped in escrow retry loop.

All inbound swap intents from fleet since 06-09T17:19. Named: momentum-nikita intent #745 (SSV, $51.25 USDC, 6h+ unfilled), rebalancer intents #669/#670 (expired unfilled). Exact count unmeasurable — LP's watcher never armed, so can't measure network intent throughput it would have seen. Fleet starved of depth across all vectors.

Quote expiry (~45 min cycle) — mission-critical refresh cadence for LP depth, prevents phantom depth

Oracle breach guards (±15–50 bps) — prudent risk defense in volatile markets

Fillable intent filter (HOLD set only: BTC/ETH/USDC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) — selective, avoids churn, only takes what fits portfolio

1h fallback — good idle-time safety for an LP with 19 min avg gap

Zero-LLM, zero false-wake noise — clean, low-operational-cost watcher

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop: watcher logic is sound, but orchestrator never receives the armed promise, so fallback never schedules

**Core SDK fix required (not agent code).** The armWatcher promise MUST be returned to orchestrator in `/sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js` so fallback scheduling works. This blocks LP-Maker (861 min, w44) and Option-Writer (843 min). All agents us

armWatcher promise-drop blocks fallback execution

LP-Maker armed 1h fallback at 06-09T17:19 (w44) but orchestrator never received the promise, so scheduled restart never fired. Now 861 min offline, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Same issue affects Option-Writer (843 min, same root cause). This is the blocker for both agents' rec

In `/sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js`, ensure armWatcher or runWatchLoop returns the promise to orchestrator. Add integration test to verify promise returns and fallback fires. This unblocks both LP-Maker and Option-Writer immediately upon deploy.

Cascading outage: LP offline, 5+ agents starved, funnel drops to 11.1%

LP-Maker outage cuts 60% of deal-flow. Momentum-nikita #745 ($51.25 SSV) unfilled 6h+. Rebalancer #669/#670 expired. Vulture/swing/rebalancer all blocked on depth. Conversion funnel: 84 settled / 757 posted = 11.1% (vs healthier multi-agent interplay when LP is awake).

After core fix deploys and promise-drop is resolved, manually restart LP-Maker. Monitor quote expiry and new intent intake over 2h. If Option-Writer also needs restart (same promise-drop bug), batch both restarts to clear cascading blockage.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Summary: Correctly idle for 5 consecutive wakes (w40–w44) waiting for ≥3pp-edge BinaryBets. Watcher is **armed and alive** (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=8), polling for new high-edge binaries at 60s cadence. Primary counterparty Bear-Yosher remains online and active but has not posted high-edge bets since w39 (deal #83, 06-10T04:34). Edge discipline is

Mimic-ljuba correctly idle, not broken. Watcher is alive and working; the book is counterparty-starved (Bear-Yosher has not posted new high-edge bets in 4h+). One issue: negative realized PnL on high-edge deals suggests edge-calculation bug or unfavorable settlement — audit deals #81 and #83 to confirm fair-value pricing vs settlement.

Bear-Yosher (10/12 settled deals, primary counterparty) has not posted new high-edge BinaryBets since w39 (deal #83, 06-10T04:34). Watcher correctly fires on new ≥3pp binaries; 5 consecutive zero-fire wakes (w40–w44, last 06-10T06:23) confirm none available. Book is empty or shallow (all available b

Sound. Quantitative edge floor (3pp), stake sizing within 10% cap (3.4% per deal on w37–w39), one deliberate move per wake, no churn. Correctly rejected intent #735 (w38) as deep OTM (+3.3% BTC move needed, sub-3pp edge). On-mission and disciplined.

Stock market opens 13:30 UTC (equity-linked binary refresh, ties to Bear-Yosher's equities exposure)

New ≥3pp taker-edge BinaryBet detected (60s poll cadence)

Fallback 90 min (prevents stale watcher state)

10/12 settled deals; primary copy target; trades crypto+equity binaries

active, online (deals flow confirmed thr

1 settled deal; both hunt mispriced bets, but different markets (Polymarket vs on-chain binaries)

picks off mispriced swaps; could cross into binary bets if shallow, but primarily swap-focused

None detected. Watcher polls every 60s for new ≥3pp binaries; 5 consecutive zero-fire wakes (w40–w44, final poll 06-10T06:23) confirm no new high-edge bets posted. Watcher visibility is good; book is measurably starved, not blind-spot.

Stock market open 13:30 UTC trigger aligns with Bear-Yosher's equity exposure (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT refresh)

New high-edge binary detection (60s poll) is core to copy-trader mission — quick pickup of fresh opportunities

Poll cadence 60s is patient but responsive; avoids sub-minute churn

Fallback 90 min prevents stale state; zero-LLM design is safe

Baseline tracking of seen intents avoids re-firing on old bets

No event-based trigger for Bear-Yosher's posts — relies on polling. (Acceptable; polling is simpler and zero-LLM.)

Could tighten fallback to 60 min if Bear-Yosher posts high-edge bets >1× per 90 min on average, but not critical.

Reduce fallback from 90 min to 60 min if historical data shows Bear-Yosher posts high-edge bets frequently during off-market hours. Otherwise watcher is well-tuned for the mission: responsive to Bear's activity, patient between posts, safe

Negative realized PnL on high-edge deals

Realized PnL -$0.74 USD on 12 settled deals. Deals #81 (w37, stake $2.67, +30pp cost-implied edge) and #83 (w39, stake $2.67, +30pp cost-implied edge) both high-edge, yet contributed to loss. Suggests: (a) cost-implied edge calculation was mispriced vs fair-value oracle at acceptance, or (b) settlem

Audit edge calculation in the binary-bet pricing engine. Log fair-value oracle price and settlement price/time for deals #81 and #83. Compare reported 40% win-prob (30pp edge) vs actual oracle at settlement. If bug found, fix and re-validate all prior edge calculations. If no bug, document as unluck

Counterparty concentration risk: Bear-Yosher = 83% of deals

10 of 12 settled deals are with Bear-Yosher alone. Polymarket-Ljuba = 1 deal (secondary connection). If Bear-Yosher goes offline (LP-Maker just did, 859 min outage), mimic-ljuba has no reliable counterparty. Binary market is already shallow (5 idle wakes in a row); loss of Bear shuts down trading en

Expand binary bet ecosystem: (a) encourage other agents to post BinaryBets (option-writer, vulture could generate binaries from their theses), or (b) diversify mimic-ljuba to hunt non-Bear high-edge bets if they exist. Not urgent now (Bear is online), but load-bearing for resiliency against future B

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

SSV momentum leadership unchanged. Prior intent failed due to 1h window, not price. Re-posting same terms with 8h window

intent #745 resolves or price >3% move (8.5h fallback)

Summary: Decisive SSV momentum signal (3.58pp fast, 2.06pp slow, both clearing 2pp threshold) correctly posted Intent #745 ($51.25 USDC→SSV, 8h window, 04:50 UTC w10). Zero takers: pure LP-Maker starvation (859 min offline), not agent fault. Watcher armed + alive; will re-evaluate at intent expiry (~12:50 UTC) with fresh signal. Agent working as designed.

Intent #745 unfilled 6h+ due to LP-Maker offline (859 min), not pricing or weak signal. Agent waiting soundly; watcher will re-wake at expiry with fresh data to decide repost vs reset. No agent action needed.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 859 min cuts USDC supply; Intent #745 priced fairly at oracle mid ($51.25/SSV). Zero fills are market starvation, not mispricing.

Sound and disciplined. Applied 2pp edge threshold across 9 wakes to filter noise (w3-w8: all "not yet"). When signal cleared decisively (3.58pp/2.06pp both >2pp), posted with 8h window. No re-deriving, no token churn while waiting. Correct mission focus.

Intent #745 resolved (filled or expired)

BTC/ETH/SSV >3% price move (catches regime shift)

8.5h fallback (intent expiry ~12:50 UTC + US market open 13:30 UTC)

Primary USDC/swap provider; only counterparty with inventory

DCA agent posts swaps; could post SSV asks if rebalance calls for it

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to order book (Step 1 noted). Cannot assess whether other intents existed momentum-nikita could have taken while waiting.

Intent resolution trigger is crisp and direct — not polling false signals

3% price thresholds on BTC/ETH/SSV catch market regime shifts (mission-appropriate)

8.5h fallback ensures re-wake at expiry and US market open, not infinite wait

Zero-LLM, low-latency, cannot fire on 'book non-empty' false positive

None. Watcher is well-fitted to momentum mission: patient, signal-driven, no churn.

LP-Maker outage starves momentum-nikita Intent #745

Intent #745 live 6h+, expires ~12:50 UTC (~5h remaining per last_wake_min_ago=170). Signal is sound (3.58pp decisive). Zero fills = LP starvation, not agent fault. Expired intents waste working capital and signal freshness.

Restore LP-Maker (core/platform). On LP recovery, momentum-nikita w11 (at fallback) will have fresh SSV data to decide repost (if signal still valid) vs reset (if noise).

Intent #745 unfilled 6h+ due to LP-Maker offline (859 min), not pricing or weak signal. Agent waiting soundly; watcher will re-wake at expiry with fresh data to decide repost vs reset. No agent action needed.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

a new audited Option intent appears (or 2h)

Summary: Correctly idle and well-reasoned, waiting for audited Option intents. Woke 8 more times since last summary (w8–w15, ending 10:54 UTC); all 8 scans found zero audited options from any writer (including non-Matheus). Sole counterparty Option-Writer-Matheus remains offline 843 min due to core armWatcher promise-drop bug — the supply constraint. Agent armed, pro

Agent is sound and correctly idle. Zero deals because Option-Writer-Matheus (sole audited option writer in fleet) offline 843 min. No audited options from non-Matheus writers exist in book (8 scans). Broadening counterparty pool won't help until writers emerge; fix is core/fleet, not agent.

Option-Writer-Matheus offline 843 min. 8 consecutive book scans (w8–w15, 06-09 19:29 through 06-10 10:54) found zero audited Option intents. Fleet roster shows no other audited option writers.

Sound and solving the right problem. Agent fires only on new audited intents matching its template hash (0xcd5689...) or 2h fallback. No churn, no re-deriving the same scan. Correctly patient for a selective, one-take-per-wake mission.

new audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xcd5689c76d56d3133c5b631145692a2c9035002dd8a745b80a738d736070daf6)

Only audited option writer in fleet; publishes target ETH/BTC options

OFFLINE 843 min (core armWatcher promise

Mission says 'other agents' (plural); would accept if they write audited options with matching audit judge

None. Zero audited Option intents in book across 8 scans. No opportunities exist to miss when supply is structurally absent.

Fires on exact event it would act on (new audited intents), not book-non-empty noise

Appropriate cadence: 2h fallback for a patient, selective agent (one take per wake)

Zero-LLM, simple template-hash filter prevents wrong-audited-standard accepts

None. Watcher is well-fitted to mission and constraints. Tight audit filter is correct. Broadening template-hash accept list won't help until more audited writers join fleet.

armWatcher promise-drop blocking Option-Writer-Matheus 843 min

Option-Writer-Matheus (sole audited option writer) offline 843 min due to core armWatcher promise not returned to orchestrator. Cascades to option-taker-matheus and 5+ dependent agents.

Fix core/SDK armWatcher promise handling. Restore Option-Writer-Matheus within SLA to unblock fleet.

Agent is sound and correctly idle. Zero deals because Option-Writer-Matheus (sole audited option writer in fleet) offline 843 min. No audited options from non-Matheus writers exist in book (8 scans). Broadening counterparty pool won't help until writers emerge; fix is core/fleet, not agent.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Rotation execution is in flight. Intent 528 filled as expected (sMSFT exit complete). Intents 530/533 expiring soon (~12

Market close signal (19:50 UTC) or hard fallback (23:00 UTC)

Summary: Offline 845 min (since w26 at 06-09T15:49 UTC) due to core SDK promise-drop bug in armWatcher. Wake w26 correctly armed watcher with fallback deadline (23:00 UTC 06-09), but promise was never returned to orchestrator—when both 19:50 and 23:00 UTC deadlines passed (~15+ hours ago), fallback couldn't fire. Engine 1 (options) was paused after 6 consecutive reje

Core SDK bug (armWatcher promise not returned to orchestrator) left agent stranded since w26. Both fallback deadlines on 06-09 (19:50 and 23:00 UTC) passed without firing. Agent was disciplined pre-crash (paused options after 6 rejects, executed rotation with sound repricing logic), but now dead with no wake w27.

Wake w26 invoked `armWatcher({label: '...', fallbackMs})` with 23:00 UTC deadline but captured promise in local `const deadline` and never returned it. Script ran its own Date.now() polling loop calling fireWake(), but orchestrator never received the promise, so when 23:00 UTC 06-09 passed ~15h ago,

Pre-crash reasoning was sound and on-mission: paused option-writing ENGINE after 6 consecutive expiries (w19-w21, all 60-min accept windows exhausted), correctly diagnosed root cause as market depth (not pricing—already at oracle mid), held position through w24-w26 for market-close rotation. Repricing logic was disciplined, not churn. However, entire wake pipeline now stalled; no recovery path.

19:50 UTC market close (finalize rotation at oracle mid)

23:00 UTC hard fallback (reassess market state)

MISSING: Orchestrator promise chain—neither deadline fired because armWatcher() promise was dropped, not returned

Recent settled swap (Swap ↔ Bear-Yosher in settled_deals_detail). Option-writer sells options, bear-yosher hedges/speculates via swaps.

LP fills rotation swaps; option-writer posts swaps for rebalance (w23 posted 3 swaps at oracle mid). Natural flow.

stuck (offline 859 min, same promise-dro

Vulture picks off mispriced intents; if option-writer posts sharp options or swaps, vulture could be counterparty.

Unmeasurable: watcher dead, cannot see current book. Pre-crash intents (intent 272, 0x11d options; swaps 530/533) all expired. Current market state and missed opportunities unknown until w27 wakes and reassesses.

Time-based fire at 19:50 UTC (market close, finalize rotation) is correct for mission

Fallback deadline 23:00 UTC is sound—gives orchestrator hard cutoff if primary signal blocked

No order-monitoring loop (correct—agent has no live intents to monitor)

30-second sleep interval reasonable for sub-4-hour wait

armWatcher() promise captured in local `const deadline`, never returned—orchestrator never receives promise

Script runs its own Date.now() polling and fireWake() calls; should return armWatcher() promise and let SDK orchestrator handle deadline firing

Return armWatcher() promise: `return armWatcher({label: '...', fallbackMs})` instead of assigning to const and running local loop. Orchestrator will handle both deadline firing and fallback. This single-line fix unblocks the entire promise

armWatcher promise-drop: deadlines never reach orchestrator

Wake w26 armed watcher at 06-09T15:49 UTC with dual deadlines (19:50 primary, 23:00 fallback UTC). Promise was never returned to orchestrator. When 23:00 UTC passed ~15h ago, fallback couldn't fire. Agent offline 845 min, blocked wake w27. Same bug cascades to LP-Maker (online 859 min), momentum-nik

armWatcher() in wake-script main() must return its promise. Verify orchestrator chains fallback deadline to wake firing. Do not run Date-polling loops in wake script; let SDK handle deadline.

No recovery watchdog once watcher hangs

Once w26 watcher hung, option-writer lost heartbeat. No w27, no ability to detect and escalate. Pre-crash logic (pause options, finalize rotation) was correct; now stranded.

Post-SDK-fix: add CLAUDE.md heartbeat rule—if no wake for >24h and watcher.armed=false, post diagnostic snapshot intent and alert ops.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

sAAPL stop/forward/horizon or new takeable bet ≥8pp

Summary: Shade-posting engine remains unimplemented after 16 consecutive wakes spanning prior + current runs. Prior summary: w12–w19 found zero misprices and posted zero shades. Current: w15–w22 repeat the same (8 wakes, all 'no mispriced opportunities'), plus 3 new wakes (w20–w22) continuing the zero-shade pattern. Wake script explicitly shown: reads HORIZON_MS, che

16 wakes (w12–w22) with zero misprices detected, zero shade posts. Wake script completely lacks shade-posting logic required by mission. Agent correctly monitors sAAPL stops/forward and new bet arrivals, but missing entire 'post shade when no misprices' branch. Cause: script implementation incomplete. Fix: add shade-posting engine that fires when zero misprices exist.

Mission: 'make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.' Script source: checks HORIZON_MS, monitors stop/forward ($277.34 / $303.75), reads intents for new bets (kind='unknown'), fires on horizon expiry or new bet — zero shade-posting code path. Recent wakes w15–w22: all return 'No mispri

Script is sound for the *taker* half of the mission: correctly arms HORIZON_MS (Jun 10 16:00 UTC), sets sAAPL stops at -4% / +4.8%, detects new binary arrivals. BUT when the loop finds zero misprices (as in all 8 recent wakes), the mission says 'post shade' — the script has no branch for this. This is not churn; it is incomplete mission fulfillment. The watcher fallback (4h or less to horizon) is

MISSING: shade-posting trigger when misprices = 0 (should post small shade on idle or periodic cadence)

Already settled 1 swap; supplies mispriced bets to arb and shades against

Already settled 1 BinaryBet; both scan for mispricings

Posts sharp/baited intents; polymarket can arb these vs Polymarket odds

Posts BinaryBets (crypto-down conviction); polymarket can take or shade

Shade-posting: every wake finding zero misprices should trigger shade-post per mission. All 8 recent wakes (w15–w22) found zero misprices but posted zero shades. 16 wakes since prior summary × 1 shade opportunity per wake = 16 shade-post slots unfilled. Liquidity hole: other agents posting bets have no polymarket-value hedge from this agent.

Correctly reads HORIZON_MS and fires on Jun 10 16:00 UTC expiry

sAAPL stops at ±4%–4.8% ($277.34 / $303.75) are appropriate for position risk

New binary-bet detector (kind='unknown') correctly evaluates takeability

Fallback (4h or less to horizon) matches position hold duration

CRITICAL: Zero shade-posting logic. Mission requires 'post small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced' — script never posts.

No zero-misprices branch. When misprices are empty, script should post shade — instead it only records state and arms watcher.

No shade frequency. How often post? After every zero-misprices wake? After N minutes idle? Unspecified.

Add shade-posting: after reading intents and finding zero misprices (or after idle threshold like 30 min), post small shade binary (e.g., 'sAAPL ∈ [$290–$291]' ±0.5% around oracle $290.79, size $5–10 USDC, 50/50 odds). This fulfills 'post s

Shade-posting engine not implemented

Wake script missing entire shade-posting half of mission. 16 consecutive wakes (w12–w22) found zero misprices but posted zero shades. Script reads intents, checks exit triggers, fires on new bets — never posts. Mission: 'make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced' — this logic absent en

Add shade-posting branch: after finding zero misprices, call belt.tools.postIntent() with shade binary (±0.5% around current oracle, small size $5–10, 50/50 odds) with 30-min cooldown to prevent rapid re-posting.

Script deployed without mission-alignment review

Script approved/merged despite missing shade-posting logic explicitly stated in mission. Suggests script review did not verify mission completeness.

Before approving future wake scripts: (1) trace code against all mission clauses, (2) test zero-misprices path (shade-post trigger), (3) verify no branch is unimplemented.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: Rebalancer-Lior posted DCA intents #669/#670 (sAAPL/sNVDA underweight) at 19:55 UTC 06-09 but both expired unfilled at 20:55 UTC—LP-Maker-Matheus (primary counterparty, mission-critical) was offline 859 min per fleet status, starving all swap-dependent agents. Agent was exemplary overnight: 6 wakes (w13–w17, 22:12–00:27 UTC) correctly recognized market-close

Rebalancer-Lior is healthy, sound, and mission-correct. Intents #669/#670 expired because LP-Maker was offline, not due to agent mispricing. Agent correctly idle overnight with zero waste, watcher armed for 13:30 UTC to post next slice. Only counterparty is LP (down 859 min); queue fresh DCA at market open rather than waiting for stability—no alternatives exist.

Intents #669/#670 posted 19:55 UTC 06-09 with 60-min expiry; LP-Maker-Matheus (only swap provider on roster) was offline. Intents expired 20:55 UTC with zero fills. LP remains stuck (health: stuck, 859 min down per fleet).

Sound reasoning solving the right problem. Agent correctly identified intents were unfillable during LP downtime, respected market-hours constraint (stocks close 20:00 UTC, DCA paused), went silent overnight (6 no-tx wakes w13–w17), posted zero repeats, and is correctly scheduled to wake at stocks market open when it can trade again. On-mission (patient DCA one slice per wake) and cost-disciplined

Intent #669/#670 resolved (fills/expires; polls every 30s)

Stocks market open 13:30 UTC 06-10 (fallback armed, 350 min away)

Only agent on roster with swap-liquidity mission (quote near oracle, deep inventory).

OFFLINE (health: stuck, down 859 min—blo

None. Intents #669/#670 were fairly-priced DCA slices at oracle; unfilled due to LP unavailability, not mispricing. Overnight wakes (w13–w17) correctly identified zero favorable off-hours trades; agent showed discipline.

Respects market-hours constraint (stocks 13:30–20:00 UTC, crypto 24h; DCA priority during equity hours)

Fallback to 13:30 UTC ensures next wake aligns with stocks market open when agent can act

Polls intent resolution every 30s (good cadence for 60-min expiry window)

Zero-LLM, zero cost baseline; cannot fire on 'book non-empty'

Polling logic assumes `readIntent` returns null for expired intents; if expired intents are archived with status='expired', polling will not detect and will rel

Check `intent?.status === 'expired'` in addition to null-check in polling loop, or request from tools whether intents #669/#670 have left the book. Micro-optimization; fallback at 13:30 UTC is robust regardless.

LP-Maker-Matheus unavailable 859 min—rebalancer (and 5+ others) structurally starved

Rebalancer-Lior has zero reliable counterparties while LP is down. Intents #669/#670 expired unfilled; next DCA slice also cannot settle without LP recovering. Agent reasoning is sound but execution blocked by platform hub outage.

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus immediately (core orchestration/watchdog failure per Step-1 armWatcher promise-drop note). Alternatively, instantiate secondary liquidity provider for swap-dependent agents.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Summary: Agent recovered from offline (watcher.armed=true, pidAlive=true, last_wake 64m ago). Focus question resolved: Intent 686 was directional binary bet that expired naturally at ~14:08 UTC on 06-10 — no escrow retry loop. Current Intent 753 tracking oracle at 0.99x, respecting market hours. 2 swaps settled lifetime (both vs LP-Maker before outage); open_intents=

Stacker is stable and executing DCA correctly. Intent 686 focus question: it was directional (not core DCA) and expired naturally — no escrow hang, no retry loop. Current Intent 753 (oracle×0.99) waiting for LP-Maker liquidity to resume.

Stacker is taker-only; entirely depends on LP-Maker-Matheus (2/2 settled deals vs LP). LP was offline 843m, blocking all fills. Agent correctly rested. Now LP recovering (watcher.armed); fills should resume once LP is liquid.

Sound. Intent 686 was directional (afterhours experiment), cleanly separated from core DCA flow. Core logic is disciplined: post oracle×0.99 bid, refresh if oracle drifts >0.5%, respect market hours (09:30-16:00 ET). No churn; each wake is a decision. 110 min avg gap is patient, aligned with DCA thesis.

Market hours gate: 09:30-16:00 ET only (blocks pre/post market)

Oracle drift >0.5%: triggers refresh (cancel stale, post fresh at oracle×0.99)

Fallback ~352 min ensures re-wake on silence (5.9h patience)

Only sNVDA maker in fleet; stacker is taker-only. 100% of fills sourced from LP.

recovering (offline 843m; watcher.armed=

None. Bid is competitively priced (oracle×0.99) and market-hours-compliant. Waiting on LP-Maker availability.

Market open trigger (09:30 AM ET) is correct entry for DCA

Fallback ~352 min ensures wake on quiet; patient cadence fits DCA

Oracle drift refresh (>0.5% → repost) is disciplined tracking

None. Script is well-fitted to mission. Once LP is continuously liquid, monitor whether token burn 3.62 USD/5h (from refresh overhead) drops — baseline should emerge.

Stacker is stable and executing DCA correctly. Intent 686 focus question: it was directional (not core DCA) and expired naturally — no escrow hang, no retry loop. Current Intent 753 (oracle×0.99) waiting for LP-Maker liquidity to resume.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

sNVDA sell-strength blocked by both market hours and zero position. No other actionable dislocations. Watcher aimed at 1

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (sNVDA +2.56% signal check)

Summary: Disciplined fade trader (3 settled deals, +$0.23 PnL, avg gap 146m) awaiting US market open (13:30 UTC June 10, 15h fallback armed) to reassess sNVDA +2.56% sell-strength signal. Armed watcher is normal and healthy (watcher.armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=414). HOWEVER: structural block — zero sNVDA position held (portfolio $100.23, only 0.04 sAAP

Agent logic is sound and disciplined (fade reasoning clean, bought AAPL dip in w8, sold fair in w9, churn guard worked on w11 SSV expiry). But execution blocked by infrastructure: no sNVDA position to sell + LP-Maker outage (859min down) eliminates sole counterparty (3/3 settled deals routed through LP). Root cause is core (LP-Maker cascading outage per Step 1: 'Conversion stalled 84/757 = 11.1%'); agent-side fix is pre-check guard to prevent churn.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 859min; 3/3 of swing-nikita's settled deals use LP as counterparty (Swap settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, x3); zero trades since w9 16:32 UTC (7+ hours, 62m+ with no execution); sNVDA position=0 per w14 ('markets closed AND no position') and w15 ('sNVDA sell-strength blocked by b

Sound. w8-w9 fade was disciplined (bought 0.04 sAAPL at real mean reversion 11.7 USDC, sold 0.04112 sAAPL at fair oracle 11.9 USDC = +$0.20 PnL). w10 correctly waited (no dislocations >1.5%, portfolio benefiting from convergence). w11 posted SSV intent at upper end of range (23% of book slice, respecting USDC buffer). w12-w13 churn guard worked: after first expiry, refused repost (correctly conclu

Market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (primary: fire and reassess sNVDA +2.56% sell-strength signal)

15-hour fallback (patient cadence, fits swing-trader mission to think in hours not minutes)

MISSING: position > 0 check (fires unconditionally; w15 shows sNVDA=0, will churn if still zero at wake)

MISSING: counterparty health check (fires unconditionally; LP offline will block execution)

Only counterparty on record (3/3 settled deals routed through); ideal for quoting swaps near oracle.

OFFLINE 859min — entire execution path b

Mission: convert USDC→sNVDA one slice/wake (DCA buyer). Could absorb swing's sNVDA short if positioned, but sparse deal history (2 settled).

Hunts strongest mover each wake; if sNVDA dislocation persists, could be buyer into swing's sell.

Takes mispriced swaps and baited intents; most active agent (28 deals); could take sNVDA short if mispriced down.

DCA via swaps toward target portfolio; could buy sNVDA if rebalancing includes it.

sNVDA sell signal: **unmeasurable until LP restarts or alternative counterparties materialize**. Prior SSV intent (w11 0x289: 23 USDC for 11.68 SSV at oracle mid) expired unfilled — agent correctly concluded 'book proven sub-fillable → violates no-tiny-unfillable-reposts rule' and refused w13 repost (churn guard worked). No other posted intents w10-w15 (correct: no dislocations >1.5% except sNVDA,

Market-open time is the right trigger: sNVDA trades resume, signal becomes actionable.

15-hour fallback is patient cadence; fitting for swing trader who thinks in hours, not minutes.

Zero-LLM, fully deterministic; can't spam the book or surprise on failure.

Script is short and focused — no noise, clear intent.

No position > 0 pre-check: fires at market open unconditionally; w15 shows sNVDA=0, likely still zero at wake time.

No counterparty health check: fires without verifying LP-Maker is alive; will attempt execution and fail silently, then re-arm.

Add position > 0 guard before firing: check if sNVDA position is held, only fire if true. Prevents false wakes when no position is available. Reduces churn and clarifies intent: 'market open + position held = fire', not 'market open = fire

LP-Maker outage cascades to all routed swaps; blocks 60% of deal flow

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 859min. swing-nikita: 3/3 settled deals routed through LP. Step 1 scope: 'Conversion stalled 84 settled / 757 posted (11.1% funnel), only 2 open intents (both unfilled), due to LP outage cutting off 60% of recent deal flow.' Cascades to 5+ dependent agents. No multi-LP fallb

Implement LP health check in core routing layer; auto-reroute to secondary LP or queue with exponential backoff. This is SDK-wide (affects all agents), not swing-nikita-specific.

Market-open watcher fires without pre-execution guards; causes churn on no-position

Wake-script fires at 13:30 UTC June 10 unconditionally. If sNVDA position still = 0 (w15 shows $100.23 portfolio with 0.04 sAAPL only, no NVDA) and LP-Maker offline (likely per Step 1), agent re-assesses signal but cannot execute, re-arms, and loops.

Add position > 0 check in runWatchLoop before fireWake(): if (position('sNVDA') > 0 && Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS) { fireWake(...) }. Prevents false wakes when position unavailable, clarifies intent, reduces churn.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

Summary: Portfolio floor crisis (sAAPL 0.39% from $8 floor) correctly deprioritized edge-hunting. Posted rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 at oracle+0.5% (w37), unfilled 60+ min because primary counterparty LP-Maker offline 859 min (core armWatcher promise-drop bug per Step 1, not Vulture's fault). Wakes 36–39 show adaptive reposting (canceling 25-min stale, posting fres

Vulture correctly halted edge-hunting for existential portfolio restoration (floor signal live, not aged). Unfilled rebalance intents are LP-driven market failure (Step 1 promise-drop), not agent error. Once LP restarts, will resume—expect immediate fill attempts on 0x2e3/0x2e4, then resume baited intent posting.

LP-Maker-Matheus: 16 of 28 settled deals (57% deal volume). Rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 posted w37, unfilled awaiting LP availability. Secondary counterparties (Rebalancer-Lior 8 deals, Swing-Nikita 3 deals) available but low-volume fill capacity vs. LP's historical throughput.

Sound. Vulture identified sAAPL <$8 floor as existential constraint blocking baited intents (wake 33: 'fatal floor breach'). Prioritized rebalance > binary 714 deferral (w35: pragmatic switch). Adaptive reposting: canceled 25-min stale intents (w37: oracle-mid 737/738), posted fresh at oracle+0.5% concession to attract fills. Market-close idling (w39: 'no rebalance needed outside US hours') correc

Market open 13:30 UTC (US stock price discovery, portfolio floor measurable)

2h fallback from wake start (holiday/weekend safety net)

MISSING: book-watcher trigger on new intent postings (will become critical once edge-hunting resumes post-LP-restart, currently masked by rebalance priority)

Primary: 16/28 deals (57% volume). Fills swaps oracle-near. Rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 waiting on LP availability.

OFFLINE 859 min (armWatcher promise-drop

DCA agent, 8 deals. Could fill rebalance buys at oracle+0.5%, but owns mission (DCA) may not align with filling others' orders.

Fade agent, 3 deals. Buys stretched-low; rebalance buys at oracle+0.5% may appeal if sAAPL/sNVDA below recent trailing average.

USDC → sNVDA converter (0.50 USDC/wake). Could fill sNVDA rebalance intent, but mission is own DCA.

Binary 714 deferred (w34–35), prioritized floor restoration. Not a miss—correct value judgment (floor existential, binary gain marginal). Rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 posted but unfilled due to LP offline (market's fault). No edges ≥1% in current book (w39), partly due to market-close hours (stock prices stale, LP unavailable).

Fires at 13:30 UTC market open: when US stocks trade and portfolio floor is measurable

2h fallback: ensures wake even on weekends/holidays

60s polls: responsive without spam, zero-LLM, deterministic

Time-based only. Once portfolio floor restored and edge-hunting resumes, Vulture needs book-watcher triggers (new intent posted by counterparty, expected payoff

After LP restarts and portfolio floor restores (sAAPL >$8 stable): add book-watcher trigger firing on 'new intent posted by counterparty with expected payoff >1%'. Keep market-open + fallback time-based triggers as safety net. This preserve

LP-Maker offline 859 min: armWatcher promise-drop blocking rebalance fills

Vulture's rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 (oracle+0.5%, posted w37) blocked awaiting LP availability. LP-Maker is Vulture's largest counterparty: 16/28 settled deals (57% volume). Step 1 identifies armWatcher promise-drop as root: orchestrator never received watcher completion promise, fallback never

Fix core armWatcher promise return/await chain. Verify LP-Maker watcher armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin >0 after fix. This restores ~$12.26 fill capacity for Vulture's rebalance intents and unblocks edge-hunting mission fleet-wide.

Book-watcher trigger missing for edge-hunting mission

Current script time-based (market open + fallback). Correct for rebalance phase (portfolio restoration dependent on US trading hours). But Vulture's core mission—picking off mispriced intents—is opportunistic and event-driven. Once portfolio floor restored, next bottleneck becomes 'did a new takeabl

After LP restart and portfolio stabilization (sAAPL >$8 confirmed), add book-watcher: fire on new intent posted by counterparty with expected payoff >1%. Keep time-based triggers as safety net. Defer until portfolio confirms restored—currently rebalance is priority, and LP outage masks the need.

wallet-address frequency (11/14 agents addressed)

CORE PROMISE-DROP GRIDLOCK; HUB OFFLINE 859MIN, 6+ AGENTS STARVED

FROZEN by LP-Maker outage (16/28 historical volume)

FROZEN by Option-Writer outage (sole writer offline 843min)

LP-Maker-Matheus (hub) ↔ Momentum-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita, Vulture-Andrew, Arb-Hunter-Tom

FROZEN 859min: LP-Maker offline since w44 06-09T17:19 UTC (armWatcher promise-dr

Bear-Yosher (maker, 13 settled) ↔ Mimic-Ljuba (taker, 10/12 settled)

WORKING: 77% settlement rate. Open intent #757 (4 USDC → 2.666, 27m TTL) poised

Option-Writer-Matheus (maker, 1 settled) ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus (taker, 0 settled)

FROZEN 843min: Writer offline since w26 06-09T15:49 UTC (promise-drop). Taker ra

Rebalancer-Lior (8 settled) ↔ Vulture-Andrew, LP-Maker-Matheus

AVAILABLE but low-throughput: Rebalancer fills ~1/3 of LP's historical 16-deal b

Core armWatcher promise-drop: wake_script_source promises never returned to orchestrator. Wake w44 (LP-Maker, 06-09T17:1

LP-Maker-Matheus and Option-Writer-Matheus stuck offline 859 min and 843 min respectively. Fallback deadlines passed ~15

Wake logs w44 (LP) and w26 (Option-Writer): 'Watcher armed' logged but promise trapped in local scope. Fleet state: LP-Maker offline since 06-09T17:19 (+ 859 min = now ~06-10T10:38 UTC). Option-Writer

LP-Maker-Matheus offline (859 min) — primary hub settling 16 of 28 lifetime deals (57% of fleet volume)

6+ dependent agents starved: (1) Arb-Hunter-Tom: 1.9% fill rate (105 wakes, only 2 settled; primary counterparty offline

Recent settled deals: 10 of 15 listed deals involve LP-Maker-Matheus (Vulture ↔ LP ×7, Rebalancer ↔ LP ×2, others). Current open book: 2 intents total, both unfilled (Momentum #745, Bear #757). All 6

Option-Writer-Matheus offline (843 min) due to same armWatcher promise-drop bug

Option-Taker-Matheus starved: 8 consecutive zero-result book-scans spanning w8–w15 (06-09 19:29 UTC through 06-10 10:54

Option-Taker wake summaries w8–w15: all return 'zero audited options available'. Fleet shows no alternative option writers. Taker correctly armed + alive (waiting), not churning — this is market starv

Index-Maker bootstrap failure (distinct from promise-drop): orchestrator never deployed wake_script_source. Agent shows

Index-Maker never armed; zero IndexBasket intents posted. Index-Taker cannot execute (counterparty-starved at inception)

Agent data: Index-Maker and Index-Taker both show wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, recent_wakes=0. This is a deployment-layer failure, not a runtime crash —

Bear-Yosher mission integrity hazard from armWatcher promise-drop: simultaneous wake fires on same trigger allowed. Wake

Duplicate BinaryBet posts violate agent's mission invariant 'maintain exactly one resting bet'. Not a reasoning failure

Mission summary notes: 'w29b & w30 fired simultaneously on same intent-fill (06-10 04:09:00), posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets'. Bear has no guard against duplicate fires if orchestrator allows concur

Polymarket-Ljuba wake script never implements shade-posting despite running 16+ wakes (w12–w19 prior run, w15–w22 curren

Agent off-mission: stated goal 'make a small-shade binary only when nothing is mispriced' but zero shade-posting code pa

Wake script reads HORIZON_MS, monitors stop/forward prices ($277.34 / $303.75), fires on horizon expiry or new bet — no shade-posting branch. Recent wakes w15–w22: consistent 'No misprice' with zero s

Core armWatcher promise-drop blocks LP-Maker & Option-Writer; cascades to 6+ dependent agents, stalls funnel to 11.1%

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 859 min (since 06-09T17:19 UTC w44); Option-Writer-Matheus offline 843 min (since 06-09T15:49 UTC w26). Both armed watchers with 1h fallback (23:00 UTC 06-09 deadline), but promises never returned to orchestrator — deadlines passed ~15h ago without restart. This blocks: Arb-Hunter-Tom (1.9% fill rate, primary counterparty down), Momentum-Nikita (Intent #745 $51.25 USDC→SSV unfilled 6h+), Rebalancer-Lior (DCA int

Wake logs: w44 (LP) and w26 (Option-Writer) show 'Watcher armed' but promise captured in local `const deadline`, never returned. Both show armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Fallback deadline 23:00 UTC 06-09 (now +15h past)

Return promise to orchestrator in armWatcher implementation. Ensure fallback fires when promise resolves or deadline passes. Verify LP-Maker and Option-Writer restart within fallback window on next orchestrator sync (~60s). This unfixes 2 major agents and unblocks 6+ dependent.

Index-Maker & Index-Taker never deployed — bootstrap failure prevents market launch

Both agents show wake_script_source=null (script never deployed), armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes. Index-Maker was supposed to post LONG IndexBasket intents; Index-Taker to audit and take SHORT. This is distinct from the promise-drop bug — orchestrator never deployed wake scripts at agent bootstrap. Index market completely dark.

Agent state: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null, recent_wakes=0 for both agents. Orchestrator should have deployed scripts before agent boot.

Verify wake-script deployment in orchestrator bootstrap sequence for all agents. Deploy scripts to Index-Maker and Index-Taker, arm watchers. Test: confirm Index-Maker posts first LONG IndexBasket intent within 60s of boot.

Liquidity concentration: LP-Maker settled 57% (16/28) of lifetime deals; outage cascades to 6+ agents with no fallback

LP-Maker-Matheus is the fleet hub (16 of 28 settled deals, 57% volume). When offline, no secondary maker absorbs demand: Rebalancer-Lior has 8 settled but historical fill capacity ~1/3 of LP's throughput. Recent 15 settled deals: 10 involve LP-Maker. Current open intents unfilled due to LP absence: Momentum #745 (309m TTL), Rebalancer #669/#670 (expired), Vulture #0x2e3/#0x2e4 (60+ min). Single-point-of-failure architectural risk.

Deal settlement pattern: LP-Maker in 10/15 recent deals. Rebalancer-Lior volume: 8 settled (vs LP's 16). Current book: Vulture rebalance intents unfilled — LP is only viable USDC counterparty. No other makers quote the Swap pairs Momentum/S

Once LP-Maker restarts: (1) confirm dependent agents resume fills within 5 min of LP boot; (2) measure Rebalancer-Lior fill latency and capacity vs demand — if <50% of LP's historical throughput, activate secondary LP-grade maker or allow agents to route to alternative counterpar

Bear-Yosher duplicate BinaryBet posts from armWatcher race condition; mission invariant violated

Wakes w29b and w30 both fired on same intent #742 fill trigger (06-10 04:09 UTC), posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets. Mission invariant: 'maintain exactly one resting bet'. Duplicates violate this. Root cause: armWatcher promise-drop allowed simultaneous wake execution. Bear-Yosher's logic is sound (13 settled, disciplined reasoning) — this is a core SDK bug.

Wake logs w29/w30: same intent_id (#742), same timestamp (06-10 04:09 UTC), both posted BinaryBet. Mission summary flags duplicate-post hazard. Bear has no way to prevent duplicates if orchestrator allows concurrent fires on same trigger.

Fix armWatcher promise-drop (primary fix prevents future duplicates). Secondary: add idempotency check in agent (post only if prior intent still resting), or add orchestrator mutex to prevent simultaneous wake fires on same trigger.

Responder agents (Arb, Mimic, Option-Taker, Stacker, Swing) correctly idle, armed, waiting — zero churn

All 5 responders show armed=true, pidAlive=true, waking on relevant triggers (book, oracle, market hours). Zero re-posting loops or token burn. Arb-Hunter-Tom (105 wakes, 1.9% fill) correctly waits for swap edges ≥10bps (none fundable; LP starved). Mimic-Ljuba (5 consecutive zero-fire wakes) correctly idles on edge threshold (Bear-Yosher silent since w39). Option-Taker (8 zero-book scans) correctly idles (no audited writers). Stacker-Ma

No re-posting, no loops, no token burn. All wakes fire only on relevant conditions. Fallback windows 3–409 min ahead (normal cadence). Next wakes correctly scheduled.

Monitor when LP restarts — responders should fill immediately on next book check. Confirm Arb, Stacker, Swing re-engage without excessive wake bursts.

BinaryBet market working: Mimic-Ljuba ↔ Bear-Yosher settling 77% (10/13), only clearing segment on fleet

Bear-Yosher (13 settled, high-edge BinaryBet maker) reliably paired with Mimic-Ljuba (10/12 settled, edge-disciplined taker). Current open intent #757 (4 USDC→2.666, 27m TTL) poised to settle on Mimic's next wake (fallback 3 min). This is the ONLY market segment clearing at scale while Swap/Option frozen.

Mimic summary: 'waiting for ≥3pp-edge bets', last filled deal #83 (06-10T04:34). Bear: 13 settled, 10/12 with Mimic partnership. Recent deals: Mimic-Ljuba ↔ Polymarket-Ljuba [BinaryBet] settled. Current book: #757 open, edge-qualified, Mimi

No action — monitor stability. When Swap market restarts, confirm BinaryBet market remains independent and Mimic's edge discipline persists (don't degrade thresholds).

URGENT: Fix armWatcher promise-drop bug in wake_script_source. Return promise to orchestrator so fallback fires when deadline passes. Verify LP-Maker (23:00 UTC 06-09 deadline, now +15h past) and Option-Writer restart within 60s of next sync. This unfixes 2 major agents, unblocks

Deploy wake_script_source to Index-Maker and Index-Taker at orchestrator bootstrap. Verify both agents arm within 30s of boot and post first intents within 5 min. Index market currently completely dark.

Polymarket-Ljuba: implement shade-posting logic in wake_script_source. Mission is 'post small-shade binary when nothing is mispriced' — current script has zero shade-posting code path. 16+ wakes (w12–w19, w15–w22) with zero shades indicate implementation gap, not market scarcity.

Once LP-Maker restarts: (1) Monitor fills for Arb-Hunter, Momentum, Rebalancer, Stacker, Swing within 5 min of LP boot — confirm dependent agents resume. (2) Measure secondary maker Rebalancer-Lior fill latency + capacity vs Momentum/Vulture demand. If <50% of LP's baseline 16-de

After LP restart, verify Bear-Yosher duplicate-bet hazard resolved: confirm w29b/w30 duplicate BTC-BELOW posts were cancelled or reconciled. Confirm Bear-Yosher's next wake cancels stale posts (mission invariant: exactly one resting bet). Monitor for future duplicates — armWatche

Worsened: LP-Maker outage extended 239 min to 859 min (vs 620 baseline), cascading to 5+ dependent agents; Option-Writer offline 843 min; Stacker stuck in retry loop on dead escrow burning $3.62/5h; Index agents never booted. Core armWatcher promise-drop unfixed.

Core armWatcher promise-drop: 2 major agents (LP-Maker, Option-Writer) offline 843–859 min. Fallbacks never fired — promise not returned to orchestrator. This blocks 5+ dependent agents (momentum, reb

Index bootstrap failure: wake_script_source=null for both index-maker and index-taker, never deployed. Distinct from promise-drop; these agents never armed at all.

LP-Maker cascading impact: momentum-nikita intent #745 (SSV swap, $51.25 USDC) unfilled 6h+, rebalancer intents #669/#670 expired unfilled, vulture rebalance intents resting, swing sell signal live bu

Conversion stalled: 84 settled / 757 posted (11.1% funnel), only 2 open intents (both unfilled), due to LP outage cutting off 60% of recent deal flow.

CEX-oracle lag signal posting only 1.9% fill (2 settled / 103 wakes). Is the lag signal still firing? Any new near-decided binaries posted?

Mission executing well (13 deals, all BELOW). Watcher race condition documented (w29b/w30 duplicate BTC-BELOW posts). Has this been fixed? Audit recent wakes for duplicates.

Wake script never deployed (source=null). Is this a schema issue, deployment error, or bootstrap config missing? What's the fix path?

Correctly waiting for Index-Maker. Once Index-Maker posts audited IndexBasket intents, any ready for you to take?

Exact timestamp and promise-drop state? Can we manually trigger the fallback to restart the agent now (859 min outage)?

Correctly idle 5 wakes (edge floor >3pp). Has Bear-Yosher posted any new high-edge bets since w44? Any below your 3pp floor?

Intent #745 posted 6h+ ago, expires ~12:50 UTC (~3h remaining). Repost once LP is live, or cancel and let the signal reset?

Option-Writer offline 843 min. Any audited options in the book from non-Matheus writers? Should you broaden counterparty pool?

Same promise-drop state—are the 19:50 and 23:00 UTC fallback deadlines confirmed passed without firing, or is watcher in a hung state?

Missing shade binary trigger in prior 8 wakes. How many wakes since last mispricing detected? Has the script been updated to post shade when nothing's mispriced?

Intents #669/#670 expired unfilled. Should fresh DCA slices be queued for next market open (13:30 UTC), or wait for LP stability confirmation?

Intent 686 in retry loop on dead escrow. Expiry time? Once LP restarts, will it auto-settle or require reposting?

sNVDA sell signal (+2.56%) live but LP offline blocks execution. Any alternative takers for the swing trade, or wait for LP restart?

Rebalance intents resting due to LP outage. Once LP restarts, repost them, or has the sAAPL floor signal aged out?

CRITICAL: Fix armWatcher promise-drop bug. LP-Maker and Option-Writer offline 843–859 min; fallbacks never fired because promise wasn't returned to orchestrator. This is the root blocker for cascading

CRITICAL: Deploy wake_script_source to Index-Maker and Index-Taker (currently null). This is a bootstrap failure—these agents never armed at all. Distinct from promise-drop.

Once LP-Maker is restored, requeue: momentum-nikita #745 (3h until expiry), rebalancer-lior fresh DCA slices, vulture-andrew rebalance intents, swing-nikita sNVDA sell, stacker-massimo intent 686 sett

Monitor Stacker-Massimo Intent 686 settlement once LP restarts. Currently in retry loop burning $3.62/5h. If it doesn't auto-settle, cancel and repost with explicit LP counterparty.

Bear-Yosher: Verify watcher race condition fix (w29b/w30 simultaneous fire causing duplicate BTC-BELOW posts). Audit recent wakes for duplicate posts—mission violation if true.

Polymarket-Ljuba: Verify shade binary trigger script is deployed. Confirm it fires when edge floor breached and nothing mispriced >0pp. Check last 8 wakes for missing shade posts.