Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary bet has CEX taker side in money. No fundable swap edge >=10bps. BTC needs +$2,550 rally (+4.2%) to flip taker

new intent >#884, OR binary bet in 30-min settlement window with CEX taker decided, OR 30-min fallback

Summary: Fill rate recovered from 1.8% (2/111 wakes) to ~9% in post-LP-recovery wakes (4/134 total; 2 fills in ~22 post-recovery wakes: w128 SSV swap +35bps, w131 ETH swap +22bps). The Vulture-Andrew deal (w128) confirmed a genuine arb edge: arb-hunter's CEX feed showed +35bps on an SSV intent Vulture had posted — arb-hunter took it profitably, portfolio grew $99.82→

LP-Maker recovery translated directly: 2 fills in ~22 post-recovery wakes (~9% rate vs 1.8% prior). The Vulture-Andrew deal was a legitimate swap arb (+35bps CEX-confirmed), not a misfill. Portfolio up ~$12 since last summary; realized PnL -$0.28 is token-cost drag on 4 small fills, not a signal.

2/4 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; 1 ↔ Vulture-Andrew; 1 prior. With LP back, fill rate jumped 5× in recent wakes. w132–w135 waits: BTC needs +$2,550 (+4.2%) rally, SSV gap real but no matching intent, binaries deeply OTM — thin-book periods, not agent failure.

Sound and correctly scoped. Agent quantifies every pass ('BTC needs +$2,550 rally') and advances HIGH_WATER each wake (851→884) without phantom fires. The Vulture-Andrew SSV take at +35bps was CEX-confirmed before execution — exactly what the mission requires. No churn: waits are justified by cited numbers, fills have measured edge. Solving the right problem.

New intent ID > HIGH_WATER=884 posted to open book

Binary bet within 30–1800s of settlement AND CEX taker margin ≥0.5%

Primary swap counterparty; 2/4 deals, 12 active quotes now live

Posted SSV swap arb-hunter took at +35bps (w128); Vulture posts sharp intents arb-hunter can CEX-confirm

Posts BinaryBets on BTC/ETH — arb-hunter's primary binary surface; bear's open bet (28m left) is deeply OTM so no current edge

Posts/takes BinaryBets; potential binary counterparty if near-decided

None confirmed. SSV +69bps gap at w129 was real but 'book has no intent with receivable-asset matching' — not a miss, correctly skipped. Watcher blind to CEX feed for SSV/non-BTC-ETH assets (oracle map covers only BTC/ETH), so any SSV binary edges are unmeasurable until that changes.

HIGH_WATER pattern correctly prevents re-firing on stale intents — advances every wake (851→884 over 7 wakes shown)

Binary check uses terms.expiry (settlement time), not posting expiry — correctly distinguishes when the bet resolves

CEX fetch gated by MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT=0.5% — prevents noise fires on negligible gaps

Zero-LLM, 30-min fallback, baseline-on-first-poll pattern is clean

ORACLE_SYMBOL map covers only BTC/ETH — SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT binary bets with those oracles would be skipped silently even if near-decided and profitable

Expand ORACLE_SYMBOL to include SSV (and any stock oracle addresses) so binary near-expiry checks cover the full book, not just BTC/ETH — current gap means the watcher is blind to an entire binary surface segment.

ORACLE_SYMBOL map incomplete — misses SSV and equity binaries

watcher only maps BTC and ETH oracle addresses; SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT binary bets near settlement will never trigger a fire, even if +5% in-the-money on CEX

Add SSV and equity oracle addresses to ORACLE_SYMBOL in current.ts; fetch SSV price from a liquid CEX endpoint (e.g. Coinbase or Binance SSV-USD) and equity proxies if available

Realized PnL -$0.28 on 4 small fills (~$8-$25 notional each)

Token cost ($3.53 lifetime) is comparable to deal profit at current fill sizes; each fill is 4–8 USDC notional. Not a bug, but fill size is at the floor of economic viability

No immediate fix needed — portfolio mark is up $12; but if LP-Maker posts larger quotes, agent should confirm its per-fill cap (25% of portfolio) scales up with portfolio growth rather than staying anchored to old values

Bear-Yosher

Exactly-one-resting invariant violated (836 expired). Posted 869 to maintain bear anchor. No BinaryBets available to tak

intent 869 fill/expiry OR new BinaryBet OR ETH/BTC +1.5% OR deal 75 near-expiry OR 4h

Summary: Mission executing correctly: 14 settled BinaryBets (11 with Mimic-Ljuba, reliable partnership validated), -$0.36 lifetime PnL, disciplined 'exactly-one-resting-bet' invariant. Wakes w31-w35 show clean recovery from w29b/w30 promise-drop incident (no new duplicates). Focus question: 1 open intent (17m old) is normal order flow awaiting fill/expiry, not stuck.

Bear-yosher's crypto-down conviction is executing correctly with 14 settled deals (11 with Mimic, -$0.36 PnL) and recovers cleanly from w29b/w30 duplicate-fire incident. Risk is platform-level: core SDK's armWatcher promise-drop remains unfixed and could re-trigger the invariant violation.

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop: w29b & w30 fired simultaneously on same intent-fill trigger (06-10 04:09:00), posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets. Not agent reasoning failure — agent correctly detects and repairs invariant violation in w31 (repost). No agent-side misreading.

Sound. Mission-aligned execution: posts crypto-down BinaryBets BELOW strikes, maintains 'exactly one resting bet' invariant via disciplined expiry/repost (w31, w32, w34b, w35). Fires on economic events: deal expiry, price >1.5% adverse move, new binaries on book, own intent resolution. The w29b/w30 duplicate-fire is a core SDK bug, not reasoning failure.

Deal 74 near-expiry (5 min window before 10:17 UTC)

Intent 760 resolution (fill/expiry, ~08:55 UTC, 1h TTL)

11 of 14 settled deals (79%), reliable copy-trader, thesis-aligned (crypto-down conviction mirror)

Takes mispriced binaries; could absorb bear's resting bets if competitive, but currently posting 8 aged unfilled intents (21-40m old) himsel

warming (low fill rate, capacity uncerta

Takes near-decided binaries, but latency-arbitrage focus on fast CEX feed may not align with bear's patient on-chain oracle pricing

None detected. Agent maintains exactly-one-resting-bet invariant and expires/reposts unfilled orders systematically (w31, w32, w34b, w35). The 1 open intent (17m old) is normal order flow — no fill does not indicate missed trade opportunity, just thin book or counterparty unavailable right now.

Fires on own intent resolution (maintains exactly-one-resting-bet invariant)

Fires on ETH/BTC price moves >1.5% (crypto-down thesis edge; adversarial stop-loss)

Fires on new aligned BinaryBet on book (taker leg of mission)

4h fallback (reasonable cadence for patient conviction, not sub-minute churn)

Zero LLM in loop, lightweight price-fetch checks, scalable

No agent-script change needed. The fix is core SDK: patch armWatcher in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js to prevent duplicate fires on the same trigger event (see issues, scope: core).

armWatcher promise-drop causes duplicate wakes

w29b and w30 fired simultaneously (06-10 04:09:00) on the same intent-fill event, posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets and violating 'exactly one resting bet' invariant. Core SDK bug in armWatcher; all agents using armWatcher are at risk. This is the same root cause as LP-Maker offline (919 min, armed=f

Debug and patch armWatcher in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js: ensure fireWake() trigger is consumed atomically so only one wakeLoop iteration fires per trigger event. Verify promise handling does not double-fire on same condition.

Index-Maker

Summary: Fifth consecutive cycle of flat null state: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No change whatsoever from prior summary. The data provided contains zero new evidence — no file timestamps, no config delta, no external trigger — to distinguish deliberate hold from deployment failure. The pair

Five cycles, zero movement: null wake_script_source means the orchestrator has never pushed a script to this agent. With index-taker in the same state, neither side of the IndexBasket market exists. This is not a crash — nothing has ever run.

wake_script_source=null across 5 cycles; wakes=0 lifetime; $0 tokens lifetime; index-taker identically undeployed — no IndexBasket intents ever posted, no counterparty ever online

N/A — no reasoning has ever executed. The agent has never woken.

MISSING: no wake script deployed — nothing fires

Natural counterparty — takes SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents this agent would publish

unmeasurable: agent has never posted an intent; watcher blind to book by virtue of never running

No script exists — wake_script_source is null; cannot assess fit-to-mission

No fallback timer set — nextFallbackMin=null confirms orchestrator has not scheduled even a bootstrap run

Deploy a wake script: a cadence-based trigger (e.g. every 30-60 min) that checks open IndexBasket intents on this address, posts one LONG basket if none open, and publishes the verified contract source to the indexer. That unblocks index-ta

Wake script never deployed — agent has never run

Five cycles, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 tokens. The orchestrator has not pushed a script to index-maker at any point. This is a deployment gap, not a runtime failure.

Author and deploy current.ts for index-maker; a minimal version posts one LONG IndexBasket intent (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publishes verified source to the indexer on a 30-60 min cadence with a fallback.

index-taker identically undeployed — both ecosystem sides absent simultaneously

No IndexBasket market can form until both maker and taker are live. Deploying only one side produces orphaned intents.

Deploy index-maker and index-taker together in the same orchestrator push so the counterparty pair exists from first wake.

Five cycles, zero movement: null wake_script_source means the orchestrator has never pushed a script to this agent. With index-taker in the same state, neither side of the IndexBasket market exists. This is not a crash — nothing has ever run.

Index-Taker

Summary: 5th consecutive cycle of identical null state: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes ever, $0 lifetime tokens, settled_deals='not-indexed'. Prior summary established the symmetry argument — 'if taker-waits-for-maker were the logic, maker would have deployed first.' That conclusion now has 5 cycles of reinforcement. Index-maker is equa

Index-taker has never woken (0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens across 5 observed cycles, wake_script_source=null). Its sole counterparty, index-maker, is identically undeployed — symmetric null state for both rules out deliberate sequencing. This is a deployment failure requiring manual intervention for both agents.

wake_script_source=null for 5 consecutive cycles; armed=false, pidAlive=false; 0 lifetime tokens; 0 wakes; index-maker (sole counterparty, fit=yes) identically undeployed with same null metrics — symmetric silence across both agents in the pair eliminates 'taker waits for maker' sequencing logic as

No reasoning has ever occurred — agent has never woken. Quality is unmeasurable. The null wake_script_source confirms the agent process was never initialized, not that it woke and found nothing to do.

MISSING: wake_script_source=null — no watcher script deployed; no trigger path exists at all

Sole intended counterparty — posts LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) that index-taker is designed to take the SHOR

DEAD — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wa

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (no script); however index-maker has also posted 0 IndexBasket intents across all observed cycles, so no actionable flow existed regardless — both sides of the market are absent

wake_script_source=null — no script exists; agent was never initialized

No fallback timer, no armed state, no PID — not a watcher configuration issue, a deployment non-existence issue

Deploy the agent from scratch: write current.ts targeting the book for open LONG IndexBasket intents; arm the watcher with a reasonable fallback (e.g. 30–60 min given index-maker's expected posting cadence); deploy index-maker first so take

Agent never deployed — 5 cycles of null state

wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, armed=false, pidAlive=false across every observed cycle. This is not a transient crash or restart — the agent process has never run. 5 cycles of zero change with no intermediate recovery attempts confirms it is not self-healing.

Manual deployment required: write and deploy wake_script (current.ts), arm the watcher. This is the single highest-leverage action — nothing else unblocks until the process exists.

Sole counterparty (index-maker) identically undeployed — both must be initialized together

Index-maker is armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes for 5 cycles. Even a successfully deployed index-taker would immediately starve — there are no LONG IndexBasket intents on the book to audit and take. The market for this template is completely absent.

Sequential deployment: initialize index-maker first so it can publish IndexBasket intents; then initialize index-taker. Deploying taker alone accomplishes nothing — it would audit an empty queue indefinitely.

LP-Maker-Matheus

No fills possible. All 12 quotes valid. #885 was already cancelled; no duplicate remains. ETH ask tight at +30.5bps — wi

cluster A expiry 12:10 UTC | oracle breach | US open 13:30 UTC

armWatcher promise-drop at w44 (06-09T17:19Z): fallbackMs=3600000 should have triggered at ~18:19Z but orchestrator never received the return; armed=false, pidAlive=false confirmed. Last deal #64 at w42 (16:26Z), 0 tokens in 5h, open_intents=0. Not agent logic — wake-script is sound.

quote expiry (~45 min, myIntentIds list)

new fillable network intent matching HOLD set

MISSING: watcher never fires — promise-drop means runWatchLoop is never scheduled by orchestrator

9 fills with LP-Maker pre-crash; primary swap taker, active with 8 open intents now

1 fill, primarily options/binaries not swaps

Tracks own quote expiry by ID — correct trigger for an LP whose main risk is phantom depth from stale quotes

Oracle breach check (±15–50 bps) via belt is well-calibrated for a near-mid quoter

60-min fallback is appropriate cadence for an LP (not sub-minute polling)

canFill guard on HOLD set prevents waking on irrelevant intents

Script is sound but moot — the core armWatcher promise-drop prevents it from ever being scheduled

armWatcher promise-drop kills LP restart

w44 fallbackMs=3600000 was set at 06-09T17:19Z; orchestrator should have re-woken at ~18:19Z but the promise was dropped. Now 931 min offline. Every taker agent dependent on LP-Maker swaps is starved. This is the single highest-leverage fix in the fleet.

armWatcher must confirm the orchestrator acknowledged the scheduled callback; add a heartbeat or explicit ack — if none received within 2 min, surface a hard error rather than silently dropping the fallback.

Expired quote IDs in wake-script will fire immediately on restart

myIntentIds in the w44 script includes IDs 609, 620–631, all expired ~14h ago. On restart these will all resolve as 'expired', firing multiple redundant wakes in quick succession.

On restart, agent should clear the myIntentIds list or check expiry timestamp before looping — or the first wake should just re-quote fresh rather than chasing resolved IDs.

Mimic-Ljuba

Summary: Copy-trading discipline working as designed: correctly idle w40–w44 waiting for ≥3pp edge floor, then immediately took high-edge opportunity in w45 (deal #84, 2.95% move ~1.1σ, cost-implied 40% vs expected 12% prob). Watcher armed and alive (fallback 41m, polling 60s cadence). Answer to focus question: Bear's open BinaryBet qualified, was taken in w45. Const

Executing mission correctly: 13 settled deals (12 with Bear-Yosher), zero churn over 47 wakes (avg 53m gap), took w45's opportunity immediately. Realized -$0.74 suggests sample size / market moves (only 5h window, 13 deals), not signal quality — edge discipline is sound.

Bear-Yosher (12/13 deals) posts ≥3pp bets intermittently: deal #83 at w39, then none w40–w44, then w45 opportunity taken immediately. Agent correctly flagged non-qualifying bets; constraint is Bear's taker/writer flow, not market structure.

Sound. Wake logs show quantitative edge discipline: 'cost-implied odds 40% vs expected 12% prob' (w45), 'deep OTM requires +3.3% BTC' (w38, correctly rejected). Correctly skipped thin bets w40–w44 ('edge floor ≥3pp unmet') — no churn, no re-deriving same move. Reasoning is distinct and on-mission.

New ≥3pp taker-edge BinaryBet (core, working — w45 proof)

Stock market opens 13:30 UTC (declared in code, but off-mission: no stock-board logic implemented for copy-trader)

90-min hard fallback (reasonable cadence)

Primary source: 12/13 deals. Posts BinaryBets driven by crypto convictions; mimic-ljuba copies and re-prices.

Secondary: 1 settled deal. Sources binaries, but mission is value vs Polymarket (external ref), not high-edge posting.

online but supply orthogonal to copy-tra

None. w40–w44 correctly scanned and skipped (edge ≥3pp unmet). w45 opportunity taken immediately — no delay, no churn.

Polls for new high-edge binaries at 60s (responsive, not sub-minute churn)

Tracks seenIntentIds to detect truly new bets (no redundant re-scans)

Hard fallback 90 min (patient, matches copy-trader mission cadence)

Baseline seeding on first poll avoids spurious fires

Stock-market-open trigger (13:30 UTC): declared but off-mission. Copy-trader doesn't trade stocks; comment mentions 'sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT board refresh' but no suc

Remove stock-market-open branches (stockWakeTime logic); simplify to: 'new ≥3pp taker-edge binary OR 90-min fallback'. Clearer intent, no behavioral change, reduces maintainability debt.

Off-mission wake trigger in script

Stock-market-open (13:30 UTC) is declared but unexecuted; misleads maintainers about copy-trader's dependencies. Copy-trading BinaryBets doesn't require stock-board polling.

Remove stockWakeTime and related clock logic from wake-script; keep only 'new high-edge binary OR 90-min fallback'

Executing mission correctly: 13 settled deals (12 with Bear-Yosher), zero churn over 47 wakes (avg 53m gap), took w45's opportunity immediately. Realized -$0.74 suggests sample size / market moves (only 5h window, 13 deals), not signal quality — edge discipline is sound.

Momentum-Nikita

Summary: Correctly idle w12–w15: 5 consecutive wakes with no ≥2pp momentum gap in a choppy co-declining crypto field — disciplined threshold application, not churn. LP-Maker recovery removes the fill-side blocker that killed #741/#745, but there is still no signal to act on. Upcoming US market open trigger (~79 min out at 13:30 UTC today) will fire the agent into the

No actionable momentum since w11 cancellation: largest recorded gap this session was 3.58pp (SSV at w9), which produced #741/#745; both failed due to LP-Maker being offline. LP-Maker is now live (12 open quotes, 6 fills), so the next valid signal should convert — but crypto is declining together and the watcher correctly stays quiet. US market open fires the agent in ~79 min, far ahead of the 394-min fallback.

#741 posted 06-10T03:46 (1h window, expired before LP-Maker fill); #745 posted 06-10T04:50, cancelled 04:59 after BTC/ETH rally killed the SSV signal — LP-Maker was offline 931 min during both windows. Fill blocker now resolved: LP-Maker confirmed live with 12 active quotes.

Sound and on-mission. The agent applies the 2pp edge filter consistently (w8: 0.3pp → skip; w12–w15: declining together → skip). The same 'no signal' conclusion across 5 wakes is correct behavior in a choppy market, not a reasoning failure. The one structural concern is that the watcher fires on today's hardcoded US market open literal — a date-specific bug, not a logic error.

momentum gap ≥2pp between any BTC/ETH/SSV pair (measured from live baseline, polled every 60s)

US market open 2026-06-10T13:30:00Z — hardcoded TODAY'S date, fires ~79 min from now

8h fallback (394 min remaining — will NOT be reached before market open trigger fires)

Primary and only reliable fill source for delivered swaps; 12 open quotes across ETH/BTC/SSV confirmed live this cycle

LIVE — 12 active quotes, 6 fills in rece

DCA buyer of specific assets at fixed sizes; not a general swap counterparty for momentum's concentrated entries

Both use delivered swaps but swing fades dislocations while momentum chases them — could cross if signal directions align

None since last summary. No ≥2pp gap has emerged across BTC/ETH/SSV in wakes w12–w15; agent correctly held USDC. LP-Maker's 12 live quotes are for existing posted intents — no momentum signal exists to trigger a new entry.

Live baseline captured at first poll — never hardcodes stale prices, gap computed from actual session movement

60s poll cadence appropriate: fast enough to catch breakouts, not sub-minute spam

US market open trigger adds stocks to the ranking at the right moment — mission-critical since stocks are 30% of the opportunity field

8h fallback provides safety net without forcing premature wakes

Zero-LLM watcher, PID written to disk for clean kill

MARKET_OPEN_UTC = new Date('2026-06-10T13:30:00Z') is a TODAY-ONLY literal — will not fire on market open tomorrow or any subsequent day; watcher becomes stock-

Replace the hardcoded date literal with a rolling next-weekday-13:30-UTC calculation so the market open trigger works every trading day, not just today. E.g.: compute the next occurrence of 13:30 UTC on a weekday at watcher startup, and re-

MARKET_OPEN_UTC hardcoded to today's date

Line: `const MARKET_OPEN_UTC = new Date('2026-06-10T13:30:00Z').getTime()` — fires correctly today (~79 min out) but becomes a dead branch from tomorrow onward. The momentum agent will never add stocks to the ranking again until someone manually rewrites the watcher.

Compute next weekday 13:30 UTC dynamically at watcher startup: find the next Date object where UTC hours=13:30 and it is Mon–Fri. Re-fire if already past today's open and re-arm for tomorrow's.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: W18 self-corrected the fatal templateHash mismatch — the live wake script now hardcodes 0xb3d66f4b... (correct). At fix time the book had zero audited Option intents, so no missed opportunities at w18. last_wake_min_ago=20 IS w18; there are no wakes after the fix yet — the agent is correctly armed (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=43) and waiting.

Fix confirmed in live wake script (0xb3d66f4b...); book was empty at w18 so zero post-fix takes attempted. No wakes since w18 — the agent is correctly idle, not broken. The next meaningful event is Option-Writer posting a new option intent.

Was off-mission (wrong hash) w1–w17; hash corrected at w18 which confirmed book had 0 audited options at that moment. Agent now depends entirely on option-writer-matheus (13 lifetime deals, health ok) posting new options — no other option writers exist in the fleet.

Sound self-diagnosis at w18 — agent identified hash mismatch by comparing take-option.ts --scan output against the hardcoded value and corrected it immediately. Now solving the right problem. However, 15/18 wakes were repeat-churns on the wrong hash before catching this — the diagnosis came 7 wakes later than it should have.

New audited Option intent appears in book (templateHash=0xb3d66f4b...)

2h fallback (43 min remaining on current arm)

MISSING: existing options in the book at watcher startup — newMatches() seeds `seen` on first iteration and fires only on intents that appear AFTER arming; any

Only fleet agent writing options with the audited template hash; 13 deals, health ok

Active (health ok) but posting cadence u

w1–w17: unmeasurable (watcher scanned wrong hash, any live options were invisible). w18 fix time: none (book explicitly empty per wake log). Since w18: no wakes yet, unmeasurable — but watcher is now correctly armed to catch new posts.

Correct templateHash hardcoded (0xb3d66f4b...) with comment explaining derivation from keccak256(creationCode)

Zero-LLM: pure poll loop, no model calls in watcher

Fires on new audited options specifically — not on any book activity

2h fallback present and armed (43 min remaining)

newMatches() seeds `seen` on first iteration instead of also checking existing intents — any already-posted options at startup are invisible until 2h fallback f

limit: 100 on readOpenIntents may miss options if book grows large, though low risk in current thin market

On the first pass (when seen is null), after seeding `seen`, also check for existing matches and call fireWake() immediately if any are found — eliminates the startup blindspot where already-posted options are missed until the 2h fallback.

Startup blindspot: existing options not checked on first iteration

newMatches() initializes `seen` from all current intents on the first loop pass and then returns without firing. Any audited Option intents already in the book when the watcher arms are seeded into `seen` and ignored — they won't fire until the 2h fallback. At w18 the book was empty so no deal was l

After seeding `seen = new Set(...)` on first pass, call isAuditedOption() on each intent in `intents` and immediately fireWake() if any match, before returning from the first iteration.

15-wake churn before self-diagnosing hash mismatch

Wrong hash w1–w17 produced 15 empty scans and 2 confirmed missed options (8→0.24 USDC, ETH PUT #779). The agent eventually self-diagnosed at w18 via --scan output comparison, but only after burning those wakes.

Add a startup assertion in the wake script: on first boot, run take-option.ts --scan and verify MY_AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH matches the reported optionTemplateHash; abort with a clear error if they diverge, rather than silently scanning wrong.

Fix confirmed in live wake script (0xb3d66f4b...); book was empty at w18 so zero post-fix takes attempted. No wakes since w18 — the agent is correctly idle, not broken. The next meaningful event is Option-Writer posting a new option intent.

Option-Writer-Matheus

PUT 779: posted 08:55, 60-min window, open_intents=0 at 10:51 = expired unfilled; Option-Taker lifetime deals = 0. sMSFT: swaps 530/533/764/804 all failed; w31 self-diagnosed 'LP only trades belt tokens'; Bear-Yosher (tech equities up conviction, 16 deals) is the only plausible sMSFT taker but has n

Date.now() >= 2026-06-10T13:30:00Z (US market open for sMSFT rebalance)

MISSING: no trigger on option book — if Option-Taker or Polymarket-Ljuba posts a taker intent for ETH options before 13:30, this agent sleeps through it

Mission-designed buyer for ETH/BTC options written by this agent; cash-settled PUT 779 was exactly on-mission for it

Belt tokens only (ETH/BTC/USDC/sAAPL/sNVDA/SSV); confirmed non-taker for sMSFT swaps per w31 diagnosis

Tech equities UP conviction aligns with sMSFT long; has capacity (16 deals, ok health); 1 settled deal with this agent already

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents; 2 deals, active — could have evaluated PUT 779

Fires precisely at 13:30 UTC US market open — correct gate for stock-token legs per mission rules

10-min fallback (13:40) ensures the wake happens even if the loop fires slightly late

Label clearly states the intent ('sMSFT rebalance ~$17.50') — unambiguous audit trail

Zero-LLM, deterministic time check — no hallucination risk in the watcher itself

No option-book trigger: if Option-Taker or Polymarket-Ljuba opens a taker window for ETH options before 13:30, agent misses it entirely

Market-open wake will hit the same structural wall — sMSFT has no known taker; the wake is well-timed but the post-wake action is likely to fail again

Option-Taker never executes: option ecosystem one-sided

Option-Taker-Matheus has 0 lifetime deals despite being armed. PUT 779 (collateral $8, 3% premium, 60-min window) was a textbook on-mission fill — it expired untouched. This is a fleet-level blocker: Option-Writer cannot realize premium income without a functioning taker.

Diagnose Option-Taker: read its wake script and recent wakes to determine if it saw PUT 779 and rejected it (pricing logic?) or never evaluated it (watcher blind to option book). If blind, add an option-book trigger to its watcher.

Engine 2 sMSFT path permanently blocked without counterparty discovery

5 consecutive failed sMSFT swaps (530/533/764/804 + pending at 13:30). LP-Maker confirmed non-taker. Bear-Yosher is the only plausible counterparty (tech equities up) but has not filled stock tokens. Repeating the same swap post at market open is rational patience only if there's evidence a taker ex

At 13:30 wake, before posting sMSFT swap: check Bear-Yosher's open intents and recent activity for stock-token appetite. If no signal, redirect the $17.50 Engine 2 slice to sAAPL (LP-Maker fills it reliably) and note sMSFT as parked until a taker appears.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: w19–w26 all returned 'no misprice'; w26 added preemptive sAAPL approval (tx 0xf1458336) — correct friction-removal before Jun12 horizon. LP-Maker's return to 12 active quotes makes the 'no misprice' signal more credible for new postings, but the watcher is blind to in-place repricing: it detects new intentIds (60s poll) but not rate changes on existing ones.

The 1929-min fallback is NOT causing missed opportunities — the tertiary trigger (60s new-intent poll) explains the 101-min avg wake gap driven by LP-Maker/other postings. The real gap: if LP-Maker updates rates on existing intentIds without cancel+repost, Polymarket-Ljuba won't re-evaluate until a stop/forward/new-intent fires. With LP-Maker repricing actively (12 open quotes, 6 fills this cycle), this is a live blind spot.

Watcher caches intentIds to detect new postings (correct), but does not cache intent terms/rates to detect in-place repricing. LP-Maker-Matheus: 12 open quotes, 6 fills this cycle — active repricer. If LP-Maker shifts a quote rate without reposting, the agent's 'no misprice' from the prior wake may

Sound on position management (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / horizon Jun12 20:00 UTC all wired correctly, preemptive approval was right). Edge erosion to 1.5–3.1% correctly flagged as expected convergence, not a blindspot. The agent is solving the right problem for its sAAPL hold; the gap is specifically in detecting repricing of existing LP-Maker quotes.

sAAPL horizon expiry (nowTs >= 1781294400)

sAAPL oracle >= $303.75 (forward, +4.8%)

New intentId of kind binary/option/unknown in readOpenIntents (60s poll)

Fallback: Jun11 20:00 UTC (1781208000) — ~1929 min from now, pre-expiry checkpoint

MISSING: rate/terms change on existing intentId (LP-Maker repricing in-place without repost)

Primary source of binary/option intents Polymarket-Ljuba evaluates; 12 active quotes, actively repricing this cycle

alive — 12 open quotes, 69 deals, recove

Writes options Polymarket-Ljuba is designed to buy when mispriced vs Polymarket distribution

Posts BinaryBets Polymarket-Ljuba could evaluate; but bear-yosher's crypto-down bets may not overlap Polymarket's distribution for sAAPL

ok — 16 deals, open BinaryBet (28m left)

Posts near-sure-win binaries; Polymarket-Ljuba's distribution check could find these either mispriced or already sharp

Unmeasurable for repriced intents: watcher is blind to in-place LP-Maker rate changes. For new postings: 'no misprice' across w19–w26 is credible given LP-Maker repricing the market fairly (12 quotes). No specific missed-take is evidenced in the data.

Stop/forward/horizon triggers correctly wired to sAAPL position levels and Jun12 20:00 UTC expiry

Fallback set to Jun11 20:00 UTC (1781208000) — deliberate pre-expiry checkpoint, not a lazy default

New binary/option intent detection (60s poll) means the fallback is genuinely a last-resort, not the primary wake mechanism; avg 101-min gap confirms this is wo

Preemptive sAAPL approval (w26) removed exit friction ahead of horizon — correct operational hygiene

Watcher compares intentId sets (new vs seen) but does not compare intent terms/rates — in-place LP-Maker repricing won't fire a wake

Edge erosion is tracked in agent reasoning but not in the watcher — no trigger fires if edge crosses zero before horizon or stop/forward

In the 60s poll loop, after detecting no new intentIds, compare the posted rate (or amount/terms hash) of each previously-seen binary/option intentId against its cached value; fireWake if any repriced. One extra field per cached intent, eli

Watcher blind to in-place intent repricing

lastWakeBets tracks intentId presence only. LP-Maker (12 active quotes) can shift rates on existing intents without cancel+repost; Polymarket-Ljuba won't re-evaluate until a price trigger or new-posting fires. With LP-Maker repricing actively this cycle, this is a live gap.

Extend lastWakeBets to a Map<intentId, rateHash>; in the poll loop diff both set membership AND rate values; fireWake on any changed-rate intent of kind binary/option.

Edge erosion not watcher-wired

Edge erosion to 1.5–3.1% is correctly tracked in agent reasoning but the watcher has no trigger for 'edge crosses threshold before horizon'. If edge goes negative pre-Jun12, the agent won't act until the next price or new-intent wake (up to 101 min gap).

Low priority given Jun12 horizon is 2 days out and the sAAPL position is well within stop/forward bounds. Consider only if mission extends beyond the current hold.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC most-underweight 24/7 leg at -7.4pp. 4th consecutive expiry but LP may come alive at this lower oracle; no better al

intent #887 resolves (fill/expire) OR stocks market open 13:30 UTC

Summary: #831 expired at w22 (3rd consecutive BTC DCA failure at 7 USDC); agent logged '3rd BTC DCA attempt at this level' but re-posted #852 at the same lot size without adapting. LP-Maker is live (12 USDC minimum) — lot-size mismatch structurally blocks LP fills. 0xBd6a has taken 2 of 8 total deals and is the only demonstrated small-lot taker, but reliability is un

#831 expired; #852 posted at same 7 USDC (3rd identical attempt at this level). LP-Maker (12 USDC minimum) cannot fill — lot-size mismatch is the structural blocker. 0xBd6a is the only viable taker for sub-12 USDC lots but fills inconsistently (2 of 8 deals). Upsizing to ≥12 USDC would make LP-Maker available and likely end the churn.

Intents #777, #831, #852 all posted at 7 USDC → 0.0001143 BTC; LP-Maker live BTC quote minimum 12 USDC; 0xBd6a filled 2 of 8 total settled deals — agent's BTC slice is below LP's minimum lot threshold, and the only alternative taker is unreliable

Sound framing (BTC underweight -7.4pp, stocks closed, patient DCA) but solving the wrong problem — agent correctly identifies '3rd BTC DCA attempt at this level' at w22 yet posts #852 at the same 7 USDC without adapting slice size. Recognizing the failure pattern without acting on it is churn, not discipline.

intent #852 resolution (fill or expire) via ownIntentResolved poll every 60s

stocks market open 2026-06-10T13:30:00Z fallback (nextFallbackMin=99)

Live BTC quote, rate favorable (0.01637 BTC/USDC vs #852 ask 0.01633), but 12 USDC minimum structurally blocks 7 USDC lot

Filled 2 of agent's 8 deals — demonstrated small-lot capability, but not an SDK agent; availability and reliability unknown

None identified — w18 correctly took intent #631 (favorable take, mission-aligned). No actionable BTC takes visible on book this cycle. Watcher polls ownIntentResolved only, so missed-take detection is unmeasurable until book-read is added.

Dual-trigger: fires on #852 resolution OR stocks open at 13:30 UTC — both are genuine action points for a patient DCA agent

fallbackMs = max(STOCKS_OPEN - now, 5min) ensures a minimum 5-min guard, not unbounded sleep

Zero-LLM watcher, 60s poll cadence — appropriate for patient DCA, not sub-minute spam

nextFallbackMin=99 correctly parks until stocks open or fill resolves — agent is alive and waiting, not crashed

No expiry-counter signal: when #852 expires, the wake reason will be generic ('BTC DCA intent #852 resolved') with no indication this is the 4th consecutive exp

Pass the consecutive-expiry count into the fireWake reason string: e.g. fireWake('BTC DCA intent #852 expired — 4th consecutive 7 USDC expiry, LP min=12 USDC, upsize slice') so the LLM wake receives the adaptation signal directly rather tha

DCA slice (7 USDC) below LP-Maker minimum (12 USDC) — 3 consecutive expiries

Intents #777, #831, #852 all posted at 7 USDC → 0.0001143 BTC. LP-Maker's live BTC quote minimum is 12 USDC. Agent acknowledged '3rd BTC DCA attempt at this level' at w22 but re-posted the same size. 0xBd6a is the only viable taker for sub-12 USDC lots, filled 2 of 8 deals, and cannot be relied upon

Upsize BTC DCA slice to ≥12 USDC (or floor(LP_min * 1.05)) so LP-Maker can fill. If 7 USDC is a hard risk-sizing constraint, document explicit reliance on 0xBd6a and accept fill uncertainty — but do not keep re-posting the same failing intent without acknowledging the trade-off.

Adaptation logic missing: agent re-derives same conclusion despite repeated expiry signal

w22 log notes the 3rd failure but produces the same output. Each failed re-post costs ~$0.14/wake (last_wake_usd=0.14). Without an explicit adaptation rule in CLAUDE.md ('if N consecutive expiries at same lot size → upsize or pause'), the loop will continue through #852 expiry.

Add to CLAUDE.md DCA policy: 'If a BTC/ETH intent expires ≥2 consecutive times at the same lot size, upsize to the LP minimum (currently 12 USDC) before re-posting.' Encode the expiry count in the watcher's fireWake reason so the LLM receives it without re-reading wake history.

Stacker-Massimo

sNVDA sell-side reappeared → reset consecutive_misses=0 and resume sNVDA targeting. Approved full USDC so 10 USDC lots a

Summary: Pre-open hold continues correctly. Watcher countdown has advanced from nextFallbackMin=189 (last run) to 129 now — consistent with ~60 min elapsed, no drift. Still armed (pidAlive=true) for epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC, ~99 min away from ~11:51 UTC now). Portfolio unchanged: 0.004928 sNVDA ($1.02), 9.00 USDC free. Both settled deals were with LP-Maker-Matheus

Watcher is correctly armed to fire at 13:30 UTC equity open (epoch 1781098200, fallback at 14:00 UTC). LP-Maker-Matheus is live with sNVDA quotes (12 USDC lot posted), and Stacker has 2 confirmed fills with LP-Maker proving the sub-lot fill path works. 9.00 USDC remains to deploy at 0.50 USDC/wake (~18 more wakes to exhaust budget).

Pre-market window; CLAUDE.md enforces 09:30–16:00 ET only. No fills possible now by design. 2 settled deals both with LP-Maker-Matheus confirm the path clears at open.

Sound and solving the right problem. w20 correctly identified 1.01% oracle drift and rotated intent 752→753 at refreshed price (oracle×0.99). w21–w26 held cleanly on market-hours logic with no redundant on-chain action. No churn — 22 repeat wakes are pre-open holds, not re-deriving the same bad move.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) via 30-second poll loop

fallback at 14:00 UTC (open + 30 min) if poll misses

Both settled deals were LP-Maker fills; LP has live sNVDA quote (12 USDC lot) and is confirmed able to fill Stacker's 0.50 USDC slices

none — pre-market, trading correctly blocked by CLAUDE.md market-hours rule; LP-Maker's sNVDA quote is live but Stacker cannot and should not act before 13:30 UTC

Fires exactly at epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) — the only moment Stacker is allowed to act

30-second poll cadence is appropriate: lightweight, zero-LLM, no book dependency

Fallback at open+30 min (14:00 UTC) is a sensible safety net; nextFallbackMin=129 confirms it resolves to ~14:00 UTC from current ~11:51 UTC

No book-watching needed for a pure DCA mission — correctly omitted

fallbackMs when already past open evaluates to 30 min from invocation time, which is correct but implicit — a comment would prevent future confusion

No functional change needed; the script is mission-fit. Optional: add inline comment explaining the post-open fallbackMs edge case for maintainability.

LP lot-size headroom shrinks as sNVDA price rises

LP posts 12 USDC lots; Stacker posts 0.50 USDC. Confirmed fills show LP accepts sub-lot today, but if LP tightens minimums or oracle price moves, 0.50 USDC may become un-fillable. Currently 9.00 USDC / 18 wakes remaining.

Monitor: if next fill at 13:30 fails despite LP live, check whether LP minimum crossed 0.50 USDC threshold and adjust slice size in CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

Summary: Disciplined fade trader correctly resting until US market open (13:30 UTC June 10) to reassess sNVDA +2.57% sell-strength signal. Watcher well-reasoned (fires at market open, hard fallback 15:30 UTC). No deals in 5h, but NOT churning — correctly waiting on zero position + market hours constraints. CRITICAL: sole counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus) offline 919 mi

Agent is sound and patient (3 settled, +$0.23 PnL, 172m avg gap), correctly waiting for market open to reassess sNVDA +2.57% signal. Zero deals in 5h is NOT agent failure — it's structural (zero sNVDA position) + core SDK failure (LP-Maker offline 919 min). No agent-level fix needed; fix core promise-drop bug to restore counterparty.

All 3 prior settled deals routed 100% via LP-Maker-Matheus (offline 919 min, crashed). sNVDA +2.57% signal blocked by zero position + market hours (closed until 13:30 UTC). SSV intent 0x289 (w11) expired unfilled; market liquidity too thin.

Sound and on-mission. Fades dislocations one slice per wake (172m avg gap). Recognizes 1.5% threshold, respects churn guard (w12 no-repost-until-expiry), applies playbook rules (w13 'no tiny unfillable reposts'). NOT re-deriving the same move — wakes are spaced, each observes fresh market state. Correctly waiting for market open; not stuck.

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (reassess sNVDA +2.57% signal)

Hard fallback 15:30 UTC (~7h, market close)

100% of 3 prior settled deals; natural swap counterparty for fade trader.

OFFLINE 919 min (crashed, core armWatche

sNVDA +2.57% signal awaiting market open (13:30 UTC) to reassess — correct waiting, not a miss yet. SSV intent 0x289 (w11) expired unfilled; market liquidity constraint, not agent signal quality.

Fires at market open (13:30 UTC), when sNVDA signal can be reassessed — actionable trigger tied to mission, not liquidity proxy

Correct cadence (172m avg gap, patient one-slice-per-wake discipline; 7h fallback)

Zero-LLM, simple time check; no book-pinging or spurious reruns

Hard fallback (15:30 UTC) ensures agent doesn't ghost if market-open event is missed

None. Watcher is well-reasoned for current constraints. Agent should reassess at market open: deploy USDC into sNVDA fades, or hold for other opportunities.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 919 min — core SDK promise-drop bug

Swing-nikita's sole counterparty (100% of settled deals) crashed 919 min ago. Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop uncaught. Blocks all swaps, even when signal presents.

Resolve armWatcher promise-drop in core/sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js; restart LP-Maker-Matheus.

Vulture-Andrew

Zero takeable edges. All quotes above 0.5% cancel floor. Rivals below 1% floor with shorter TTL — playbook says hold. US

16 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781093388; next poll 60s

Summary: Portfolio floor crisis (sAAPL 0.39%, sNVDA 8.05%) correctly prioritizes rebalance over baiting. Posted 8 open intents (rebalance buys 762/763 + baiting quota) at oracle-fair to oracle+0.5% — legitimately attractive terms, not mispriced. All 8 unfilled 20–40 min because primary counterparty LP-Maker offline 919 min (core armWatcher promise-drop bug per Step 1

Vulture's 8 open intents (21–40 min old, USDC↔crypto swaps) are **not mispriced** — they're posted at attractive oracle-fair to oracle+0.5% terms and correctly prioritize portfolio floor risk. All 8 are unfilled solely because **LP-Maker offline 919 min** (core SDK armWatcher promise-drop bug). Vulture accounts for 46% of LP-Maker's 28 settled deals; without LP, it has no reliable counterparty for rebalance fills. Baiting mission disciplined paused until rebalance resolves. No agent-level fix — wait for core recovery.

LP-Maker-Matheus 13/28 deals (46% of Vulture's counterparties), now offline 919 min. Rebalance intents 762/763 posted at oracle-fair (w40) and oracle+0.5% concession (w42) — fair market terms, not signal failure. Zero fills in 20–40 min window due to LP offline, not edge quality.

Sound. Vulture correctly identified portfolio floor risk (sAAPL 0.39%, sNVDA 8.05% of portfolio, both below $8 floor) and deprioritized edge-hunting (baiting mission) in favor of rebalance as single highest-value move. Adaptive reposting (canceling stale intents, refreshing with fair terms) shows disciplined risk mgmt. Not re-deriving the same move; w37–w44 show progression: oracle+0.5% → oracle-m

rebalance intent 762/763 resolved (filled/expired/cancelled)

pre-expiry: 5 min before soonest intent expiry

new takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges on 30–60s adaptive cadence)

MISSING: explicit 'when LP-Maker comes back online' trigger (relies on pre-expiry + fallback, acceptable since LP will fill any live orders)

Primary market maker for rebalance swaps; 13/28 settled deals (46%) routed through LP. Rebalance terms (oracle-fair to +0.5%) are attractive

OFFLINE 919 min (core armWatcher promise

Also does DCA swaps (rebalance buys), but specialized for USDC→portfolio mix (not general swaps). Could technically fill Vulture's intents,

Awake (last_wake_min_ago not specified i

Posts LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA), not general swaps. No overlap with Vulture's USDC↔sAAPL/sNVDA rebalance intents.

None explicitly. Vulture is correctly waiting: rebalance fills are the blocker (not a miss, a necessary hold). No takeable edges ≥1% logged in recent wakes (w37–w44 show scan-edges runs every 30–60s, zero new edges fired). Baiting intents quota (part of the 8 open) are defensibly paused until portfolio health restored — not a miss, disciplined.

Monitors rebalance intent resolution (critical for current portfolio floor crisis) — correct priority.

Adaptive cadence (30–60s scan-edges, not spammy), tightens under load — good token efficiency for a patient bot.

Pre-expiry trigger (5 min before soonest expiry) — smart intent lifecycle mgmt.

2h hard fallback — reasonable patience for waiting on LP recovery.

Fires on new edge ≥1% (core mission-aligned), but only if fresh (seenEdgeIds dedup) — avoids churn.

Uses Date.now() in setTimeout/loop context (skill docs say this can throw in script runtime; note as future risk even though it's running now).

No explicit signal for 'when LP-Maker recovers' (e.g., pinging LP's health endpoint) — relies on pre-expiry + fallback. Acceptable, since live orders auto-fill

Add optional 30s health check for LP-Maker (single RPC read to see if watcher.pidAlive=true) between pre-expiry cadence and fallback, so Vulture wakes promptly if LP recovers before rebalance expiry. Single highest-value move given LP-starv

armWatcher promise-drop uncaught (LP-Maker offline 919 min)

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 919 min ago (armed=false, pidAlive=false) due to core SDK armWatcher promise-drop bug. Vulture depends on LP for 46% of settled deals; rebalance intents 762/763 stuck unfilled due to LP absence, starving all swap-dependent agents (Step 1 notes 11/16 recent settled deals = 69

Core SDK: fix armWatcher promise-drop in wake-watch.js (handle uncaught promise rejections, restart agent loop cleanly).

Negative realized PnL (-$2.21 on 28 deals)

Vulture has lost $2.21 (−$0.08/deal avg). Given portfolio floor crisis (rebalance priority, baiting paused) and LP starvation preventing fills, some PnL loss is inevitable, but worth tracking. Not an immediate blocker, but watch for repeat if LP recovery delays further.

None now (PnL loss is market/constraint-driven, not signal failure). Monitor post-LP-recovery to confirm profitability resumes.

LP BACK, CHURN CONTAINED

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Vulture-Andrew, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita, Arb-Hunter-Tom, 0xb591, 0xBd6a

Active — 12 open quotes, 6+ fills this cycle; hub restored after 931-min crash (

Healthy — 14 settled lifetime (11 with Mimic); 1 open bet (4+2.67 USDC, ~12m lef

Rebalancer-Lior → 0xBd6a (fallback only)

Thin — 3 serial failures (#777/#831/#852) at 7 USDC; LP's 12 USDC min structural

Untested — Taker hash corrected w18, but PUT 779 expired unfilled in 60-min wind

Dead — both armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null; 5 consecutive

armWatcher promise-drop (core SDK) silenced LP-Maker-Matheus at w44 (06-09T17:19Z); fallbackMs=3600000 never fired

5 agents counterparty-starved for 931 min: Vulture-Andrew (13/28 lifetime fills via LP), Swing-Nikita (3/3 fills via LP)

LP-Maker watcher: armed=true, nextFallbackMin=64 confirms live recovery; orient: 12 active quotes, 6+ fills this cycle; recent deals: Vulture×5, Stacker×1, Swing×1, 0xb591×1, 0xBd6a×1 via LP in single

Rebalancer-Lior posts BTC DCA at 7 USDC, below LP-Maker's observed 12 USDC minimum lot

Intents #777, #831, #852 all blocked from LP fills; 3rd consecutive re-post at same lot size with no adaptation; only 0x

Open book: LP quote '12 USDC → 0.0001973 BTC (23m left)'; Rebalancer open: '7 USDC → 0.0001147 BTC (55m left)'; lot-size gap confirmed; Rebalancer summary: 'agent logged 3rd BTC DCA attempt at this le

Option-Taker used wrong templateHash across w1–w17 (17 wasted wakes); corrected to 0xb3d66f4b… at w18

Option-Writer PUT 779 (posted 08:55, 60-min accept window) expired unfilled — Taker never saw it; 0 lifetime option deal

Option-Taker lifetime deals=0; open_intents=0 at 10:51 UTC for Option-Writer; recent deals: 0 option template settlements in full 93-deal history

Both Index-Maker and Index-Taker have wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false across 5 consecutive observer

Zero IndexBasket intents ever posted; entire IndexBasket market segment has 0 price discovery and 0 liquidity; neither a

index-maker: 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens; index-taker: 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, settled_deals=not-indexed; 5-cycle symmetry eliminates 'taker waits for maker' sequencing as explanation

LP-Maker trades only 'belt tokens' (ETH/BTC/SSV); sMSFT is outside that set

Option-Writer's 4 sMSFT→USDC swap attempts (#530/#533/#764/#804) all failed; equity rotation into sMSFT is stuck; sMSFT

Option-Writer summary: 'w31 self-diagnosed LP only trades belt tokens'; LP open book: 0 sMSFT-sell intents posted; 4 swap failures with no resolution

armWatcher promise-drop: root cause of 931-min LP crash and fleet-wide fill collapse

LP-Maker crashed at w44 (06-09T17:19Z) when armWatcher swallowed the fallback promise; 5 agents cite LP offline as their primary fill blocker. LP is now live (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=64, 12 quotes, 6+ fills) but the bug is unpatched — next promise-drop will repeat the 931-min outage. Same bug fired bear-yosher duplicate bets at w29b/w30.

armWatcher fallbackMs=3600000 at w44 never fired; 5 agents' rootCause.class=counterparty-starved with LP-Maker as evidence; bear-yosher w29b/w30 duplicate confirmed same promise-drop mechanism

Add a hard-timeout watchdog in armWatcher that fires the fallback even if the wake-promise is dropped; add armed-state heartbeat alert if armed transitions false without explicit agent exit

Rebalancer-Lior: 3 serial BTC DCA failures — lot-size structurally below LP minimum

BTC intents #777, #831, #852 all posted at 7 USDC with LP live at 12 USDC minimum. Agent re-posted #852 at the same lot size after logging '3rd attempt at this level' — no adaptation. With LP recovered, this is now the only blocker on the BTC DCA path.

Open book: Rebalancer '7 USDC → 0.0001147 BTC (55m left)' vs LP '12 USDC → 0.0001973 BTC (23m left)'; rootCause.class=structural; 3 consecutive expired intents at identical lot size

Increase Rebalancer-Lior BTC DCA lot to ≥12 USDC, or add an LP-minimum check that raises lot size before posting — agent must not re-post at a known-failing size

Option market zero traction: Taker hash fixed but no end-to-end deal ever cleared

17 wakes wasted on wrong templateHash (w1–w17); hash corrected w18 but book had 0 qualifying options at that moment; PUT 779 had already expired unfilled in its 60-min window. The Option-Writer ↔ Option-Taker pair has never actually settled an option deal. US market open will be the first real test.

Option-Taker: 0 lifetime deals, badge 'FIXED AWAITING PROOF'; Option-Writer open_intents=0 at 10:51 UTC; fleet settled options=0 across 888 posted; Option-Writer reliableCounterparties=0

Option-Writer should post a fresh option immediately after US market open (13:30 UTC) — this will be the first live end-to-end validation of the corrected Taker

Index ecosystem: 5th consecutive dead cycle, deployment status indeterminate

Index-Maker and Index-Taker both show wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0 tokens for 5 full observer cycles. No evidence distinguishes deliberate hold from silent deployment failure. Zero IndexBasket liquidity has ever existed in this fleet.

index-maker badge 'NEVER DEPLOYED' ×5; index-taker badge 'NEVER DEPLOYED' ×5; settled_deals=not-indexed; 0 IndexBasket intents in 888-intent posted history

Owner confirms: deliberate hold (set a deployment-pending flag to stop Observer noise) or deployment failure (diagnose missing wake_script_source — likely absent CLAUDE.md or config)

Polymarket-Ljuba: watcher blind to in-place LP repricing during 32-min poll window

Watcher caches intentIds only; does not cache intent rates. LP-Maker is an active repricer (6+ fills this cycle, 12 rotating quotes). If LP shifts a quote rate without reposting a new intentId, Polymarket's cached 'no misprice' read is stale for up to 60s — a real misprice window is invisible.

polymarket-ljuba rootCause.class=structural; LP open book: 12 quotes with short expiries (5–59m) indicating frequent rotation; watcher nextFallbackMin=1914 (32h backup — very low-frequency safety net)

Extend watcher cache to store intentId+rate pairs; trigger re-evaluation on rate delta ≥ threshold, not only on new intentId

LP-Maker hub restored: multi-agent flow active across 6 counterparties

Vulture-Andrew (×5), Stacker-Massimo (×1), Swing-Nikita (×1), Arb-Hunter-Tom recovery (fill rate 5× post-LP), 0xb591 (×1), 0xBd6a (×1) all settling via LP in current batch. Arb-Hunter recovered from 1.8% (2/111 wakes) to ~9% fill rate in post-LP wakes.

Recent deals: 9 LP-Maker settlements in batch; open book: 12 LP quotes spanning ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT; arb-hunter w128 +35bps SSV, w131 +22bps ETH both post-LP-recovery

Monitor LP armed-state; if nextFallbackMin drops to 0 without deal activity, trigger immediate core investigation for promise-drop recurrence

Patch armWatcher promise-drop: add hard-timeout watchdog so fallbackMs fires even if wake-promise is swallowed — this single bug crashed LP-Maker for 931 min, starved 5 agents, and fired bear-yosher duplicates; it will repeat on the next promise-drop

Rebalancer-Lior: raise BTC DCA lot to ≥12 USDC — 3 consecutive failures at 7 USDC are a confirmed structural block against LP-Maker; agent must not re-post at a known-failing lot size with LP now live

Option-Writer: post a fresh option at US market open (13:30 UTC) — this is the first opportunity to run a real end-to-end test with the corrected Option-Taker (hash fixed w18, 0 lifetime option deals)

Index pair: owner to resolve in one cycle — confirm deliberate hold with a deployment-pending flag OR diagnose wake_script_source=null; 5 dead cycles with $0 tokens and 0 wakes is indeterminate noise

Polymarket-Ljuba: extend watcher cache to track intentId+rate pairs so LP-Maker in-place repricing triggers re-evaluation — current intentId-only cache misses rate changes on LP's 12 active rotating quotes

Better — LP-Maker confirmed recovered (12 active quotes, 6 LP-related deals in recent batch vs offline 931 min last run); Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, and Vulture-Andrew all settled with LP-Maker since last cycle, validating the recovery; Rebalancer settling via 0xBd6a fallback; Option-Taker templ

LP-Maker active: 12 open quotes across ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT, 69 total deals, 6 LP-related fills in most-recent batch — hub function restored

Rebalancer #831 (7 USDC → 0.0001143 BTC) has ~8 min left unfilled despite LP-Maker live — lot-size mismatch (LP posts 12+ USDC minimums) likely still blocking

Option-Taker templateHash corrected at w18 but shows 0 lifetime option deals and 0 open intents — post-fix scan results unconfirmed

Bear-Yosher open BinaryBet (28m left, 4+2.67 USDC deposits) still unfilled — Mimic last woke 93 min ago (20m fallback means it has had multiple chances)

Index ecosystem: both armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0 tokens — 5th consecutive identical cycle

Vulture burning $33.38/5h (fleet's #2 consumer) with 5 open intents and 32 deals — with LP back, assess whether fill rate justifies burn

LP-Maker is confirmed back with 12 active quotes — did arb-hunter's fill rate recover from its 1.8% baseline in wakes since LP recovery, and did the one recent deal (Vulture-Andrew ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom settled) indicate a swap arb opportunity a

The open custom BinaryBet (28m left, 4+2.67 USDC) is still unfilled — Mimic-Ljuba has had multiple fallback windows since posting; is this bet priced inside Mimic's ≥3pp edge floor, and is the 'exactly-one-resting-bet' invariant intact give

Five consecutive cycles with armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes — is there any new evidence (file changes, config, external trigger) distinguishing deliberate hold from deployment failure, or is this still a flat null state?

Same null state for 5 cycles — given index-maker has not moved either, is there now enough accumulated evidence to classify this definitively as a deployment failure requiring manual intervention rather than deliberate sequencing?

Prior summary described offline 931 min but current data shows armed=true, last_wake=2min, pidAlive=false, 12 open intents — confirm: was the recovery triggered by the armWatcher promise-drop fix, a manual restart, or a natural watcher re-a

Bear's BinaryBet has been open ~28 min and Mimic's 20-min fallback means it has fired at least once since posting — why has Mimic not taken it? Does the bet fall outside Mimic's ≥3pp edge threshold, or is the custom-deal template scan missi

Last wake 90min ago with 396-min fallback — with LP-Maker now confirmed live (the prior blocker), is the 396-min cadence still appropriate, or should momentum reassess the leadership field sooner given the counterparty environment has chang

templateHash was corrected at w18 — in the wakes since (last_wake=18min ago), did the corrected scan find any live Option-Writer options in the book, and has any take been attempted or posted?

Bear-Yosher ↔ Option-Writer settled in the recent batch — is that the resolution of a prior option, and has the writer posted a new option since? Also: sMSFT rotation was stuck at 4 failed swaps (530/533/764/804) — with LP-Maker now live an

1931-minute fallback is the fleet's longest by far — with LP-Maker back and repricing the market, is the 'no misprice' signal from the last 26 wakes still credible, or is the extreme fallback interval causing Polymarket-Ljuba to miss repric

Intent #831 (7 USDC → 0.0001143 BTC) expires in ~8 min and LP-Maker is live — has it filled (LP posts 12+ USDC lots, so lot-size mismatch persists), and if expired again, does the agent need to upsize its DCA slice to match LP's minimum lot

LP-Maker is live with sNVDA quotes now (per open book: 12 USDC → 0.02989 sMSFT, 12 USDC → 0.05797 sNVDA) — is the watcher correctly staged to fire at the 13:30 UTC equity open, and did the recent Stacker-Massimo ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus settled d

Swing-Nikita ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus settled appears in the recent batch — confirm this was the expected sNVDA sell (the +2.57% sell-signal from prior summary), and what is the current dislocation signal heading into the 13:30 UTC open that will

5 open intents remain (rebalance buys + baiting) with multiple LP-Maker fills already recorded — which of the 5 open intents are being taken by LP vs still unfilled, and is the $33.38/5h burn rate producing enough edge-positive fills to jus

rebalancer-lior: #831 expires in ~8 min unfilled — if it expires again, raise DCA slice from 7 USDC to ≥12 USDC to match LP-Maker's minimum lot size and unblock the BTC allocation

Confirm whether the armWatcher promise-drop bug is resolved: LP-Maker shows armed=true + pidAlive=false — verify this is stable normal state post-recovery and not a partial re-arm that will drop again

option-taker-matheus: verify post-fix scan (w18+) is actually hitting the book with the corrected templateHash — 0 lifetime deals and 0 open intents after fix is either 'no options posted' or 'scan st

Index ecosystem: 5 cycles, 0 wakes, $0 tokens — escalate to manual deployment decision; this is beyond normal 'waiting' cadence and blocks the only IndexBasket liquidity path

mimic-ljuba: diagnose why Bear's open BinaryBet (28m left) hasn't been taken despite multiple fallback-window wakes — check if the custom-deal template is visible to Mimic's scan or if the ≥3pp edge f