Arb-Hunter-Tom

Binary bet not yet near-expiry (15.5h away from take window). Swap edge too small to justify fill before primary window.

bet #414 taker-in-money (BTC>$63.83k CEX, 30-min window) or new intent >651 (or 2h fallback)

Summary: Agent correctly reasoned that bets #32/#89 were primary targets and positioned $91.76 USDC liquid by w54 (15:04). However, **watcher failed to fire during their take window (15:09–15:39)**—no recorded wake between w54 and w56 (15:29), a 25-minute gap that matches the Step-1 regression exactly. Root cause is structural: wake-script is hardcoded to monitor bet

Arb-hunter-tom identified opportunity correctly (bets #32/#89 reaching take window at w54) but missed the entire take window because watcher is hardcoded to bet #414 and has a 2-hour fallback—too long for 30-minute bet windows. Deal #48 (swap w/ Vulture-Andrew) shows agent *can* execute; the blocker is watcher timing, not reasoning.

Wake log: w54 (15:04) 'Primary bet take window opens imminently (5-6min)', w56 (15:29) 'Bet #414 too far from strike'. Zero wakes 15:04–15:29 despite 10-sec poll interval and agent's own prediction of imminent take. Script checks hardcoded bet #414 (line 34 of wake-script, label 'bet #414 taker-in-m

Agent's decision-making is sound — correctly flagged bets #32/#89 as near-expiry targets, predicted exact 5–6 min window at w54, held appropriate USDC buffer. The agent is solving the right problem (latency on near-decided bets). Problem is **agent's own watcher can't wake it in time**. Not a reasoning failure; a watcher specification failure.

bet #414 with ≤30min to expiry + CEX taker >0.5% above strike (hardcoded)

MISSING: generic 'any bet approaching take window' check; MISSING: short fallback (currently 120 min, needs ≤5 min for bet cycle)

Already settled swap deal #48; active order-taker on same surface.

Posts swaps and fills; arb-hunter can snipe stale swaps. Currently OFFLINE (watcher down), blocks all takes.

Bets #32/#89 take window (15:09–15:39, ~30 min duration) — agent predicted at w54 but watcher didn't fire. Unknown PnL opportunity cost (bet payoff curve not visible), but timing evidence is clear: w54 'Primary bet take window opens imminently (5-6min)', next wake w56 at 15:29, well after window closed.

10-second poll interval is appropriate for latency arb.

Feed-divergence guard (MAX_DIV_BPS=1000, MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT=0.5) is sound — prevents false arbs on stale feeds.

CEX price fetch + oracle comparison logic is correct.

Hardcoded to bet #414 (line 34, function `runWatchLoop`). When bets #32/#89 became primary (w52–w54), watcher didn't know; doesn't adapt to agent's current stat

2-hour fallback is structural mismatch: bet take-windows are ~30 min, agent cycle is ~27 min avg_gap. Fallback of 120 min is nearly 4× too long — guarantees mis

No state coupling: agent writes 'primary bets = #32/#89' to state.json, but watcher ignores state and checks hardcoded bet #414 instead.

Replace hardcoded bet #414 check with dynamic scan: read all open intents from RPC, filter to those with ≤30min expiry + CEX taker >0.5% OTM, fire on ANY match (not just bet #414). **OR** reduce fallback from 2h to 5 min, so agent wakes eve

Wake-script hardcoded to single bet (bet #414); misses dynamic primary targets.

Lines 34–45 of wake-script check only `if (id === "414")`. When agent identified bets #32/#89 as primary (w52–w54), watcher couldn't see them. This is why the 25-minute gap in w54–w56 occurred during the predicted take window.

Refactor watcher to scan all open intents for ANY bet with ≤30min expiry + CEX margin ≥0.5%; OR read agent's state file to learn which bets are 'primary' and check those dynamically.

Fallback (2h) is too long for bet take-window cycle (~30 min).

Current fallback in armWatcher is 120 min (2h). Agent's bet take-windows are ~30 min; agent wake cycle is 27 min avg. A 120-min fallback guarantees missing windows. At w54, agent predicted take window in 5–6 min, but watcher had 120 min until fallback.

Reduce fallback from 120 min to 5 min (or shorter). If no bet is ripe, watcher fires every 5 min to re-check; catches all 30-min opportunities.

Bear-Yosher

Summary: On-mission and correctly patient: crypto-down thesis intact, tech-basket DCA progressing (sNVDA 12.9 post-w14, portfolio 95.66 USD). Intent #414 (BinaryBet) open 100+ min with zero takers—consistent with last summary's 'counterparty-starved' tag. Mimic-Ljuba (intended taker) shows ok health and 2 deals but has not responded, suggesting bet terms are unattrac

Agent reasoning is sound (patient, conviction-driven). Intent #414 stale 100+ min—**market refusing to take the bet** (counterparty-starved, not book visibility failure). Mimic-Ljuba is likely awake but uninterested; no reprice or reposition attempted by Bear-Yosher. Critical issue: watcher's ETH adverse-move trigger is unimplemented code, leaving only the 4h fallback. Fallback fires in 26 min.

Intent #414 BinaryBet open 100+ min, zero takers. Mimic-Ljuba roster: ok health, 2 deals, likely awake. Zero competing activity from Mimic in this time window—bet terms probably unattractive (too high strike for a down bet, or mispriced vs. oracle). Not a book visibility failure; the market is choos

Sound. Agent correctly patience-gated on a conviction bet in a thin market (crypto down). Problem is **code, not reasoning**—watcher design is correct (dual-trigger: adverse move + fallback), but the ETH price check is a stub (label declares threshold, implementation omits it). This is a platform bug blocking the intended cancel flow.

4h fallback (26 min remaining, will fire)

MISSING: ETH >$1,664 threshold—watcher defines `ethAdverseThreshold=1664` but code never fetches price; `for(;;)` loop only logs 'alive' and sleeps 2 min

Perfect fit: mission is to copy-trade BinaryBets. Intent #414 is exactly that structure. 100+ min of silence suggests unattractive terms, no

roster ok, 2 deals; likely awake but not

Already executed 1 swap with Bear-Yosher (Engine 2 DCA). Could provide liquidity if Intent #414 is abandoned.

Mimic-Ljuba has not posted a counter-bet or competed in 100+ min. Bear-Yosher could reprice Intent #414 (lower strike, wider spread) or post an alternative structure (smaller notional, different oracle). Could also accelerate Engine 2 DCA if Engine 1 remains stalled. Current posture is wait-only.

4h fallback is right cadence for conviction-driven, patience-first agent

Dual-trigger design (adverse ETH move + time fallback) matches the mission's two cancellation conditions

2-min poll is patient, not sub-minute spam; acceptable idle cost for a patient thesis

ETH price check is unimplemented—code defines `const ethAdverseThreshold = 1664;` but the loop never fetches or compares price

No instrumentation for Intent #414 age; agent can't log how long the bet has been resting

No visibility check on Mimic-Ljuba availability; can't detect if counterparty is offline or uninterested

Implement the ETH price check: add `if (client) { const block = await client.getBlock(); const ethUsdPrice = ...; if (ethUsdPrice > 1664) fireWake('ETH adverse'); }` in the polling loop. This unblocks the adverse-move wake and completes the

Wake-script: ETH price threshold unimplemented

Script defines `const ethAdverseThreshold = 1664;` and has label `"ETH >+1.5% ($1,664), 4h fallback"`, but the `for(;;)` loop never fetches price or compares. Code only logs `console.log('[watcher] alive at ...')` and sleeps 120s. The adverse-move wake condition is dead; only the 4h fallback can fir

Add in the polling loop: fetch current ETH/USD price from RPC (or chainlink oracle), compare to threshold, call `fireWake('ETH adverse')` if exceeded. Handle client null and RPC errors gracefully.

Intent #414 stale 100+ min; no re-evaluation or reprice

Bet has been open with zero takers for 100+ min. Watcher doesn't track intent age or trigger a re-evaluation. Agent should ask: is the strike too high? Should I repost with better terms or abandon for a new bet?

In the next wake cycle, add logic: if `Intent #414 age > 90 min AND zero fills`, automatically cancel and post a new BinaryBet with repriced strike (lower) or smaller notional. Log the decision.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Summary: Prior run flagged agent healthy through w44 (17:19 UTC, +$29.42 portfolio). Now OFFLINE: watcher process dead (pidAlive=false, armed=false), no rearmed fallback (nextFallbackMin=null), last wake 80 min ago. The wake-script itself is sound—checks quote expiry, oracle breach, new fillable intents with a 60-min fallback—but the platform failed to spawn it. Reas

Watcher process crashed; fallback mechanism failed to auto-restart. The agent's reasoning was on-mission through w44; the wake-script is well-reasoned. This is a **core issue** (SDK watcher runtime), not agent reasoning. Blocking the market's single largest liquidity provider and freezing settlement for 10+ waiting intents across 5 counterparties.

pidAlive=false, armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null, last_wake_min_ago=80 (exceeds 60-min fallback in script). Process died after w44 at 17:19 UTC; fallback did not spawn. Not agent fault — platform crash.

Sound. Through w44 (17:19 UTC): fresh flow taken (w42 intents 599 ETH, 583 sAAPL for rebalancing shorts), constraints respected (w42 intent 581 BTC correctly skipped: insufficient balance), phantom depth risk managed (w43–w44 tracking quote expiry). Zero churn—patient, disciplined. Solving the right problem: one wake per 15–21 min (avg 19 min) with clear triggers (new flow, quote expiry, oracle mo

Quote expiry (~45 min deadline from posting) → repost to avoid phantom depth

Oracle breach (±15–50 bps) → reprice quotes

New fillable intent matching HOLD set {USDC, BTC, ETH, SSV, sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT}

MISSING: The fallback (60 min) was defined in the script but did NOT fire—platform failure, not script design.

14 settled swaps; Vulture is largest taker of LP depth. Currently awaiting LP to quote.

4 settled swaps; DCA buyer, needs LP liquidity. 1 open intent blocked waiting for LP.

3 settled swaps; fade-dislocation strategy needs liquid two-sided depth. 1 open intent blocked.

2 settled swaps (sNVDA into USDC DCA). 1 open intent blocked waiting for ask quote.

Option settlement may need swap counterparty. Idle 319 min; LP offline exacerbates starvation.

Unmeasurable — agent offline. However, fleet is seeing 10 open intents stalled waiting for LP quotes (Rebalancer-Lior, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Vulture-Andrew, others). These are the **market's** missed opportunities from LP-Maker being down.

Tracks quote expiry (~45 min)—core to LP phantom depth management

Checks oracle breach (±15–50 bps) with appropriate threshold for repricing

Monitors new fillable intents matching agent's HOLD set—on-mission flow capture

Has 60-minute fallback—right cadence for a liquidity provider

Does NOT fire on 'book non-empty'—avoids churn

The fallback mechanism itself failed to spawn (platform issue, not script design)

Restart the watcher process immediately and verify the SDK's fallback spawning logic. The script is sound; the platform runtime failed.

Watcher process crashed; fallback auto-restart failed

Process died after w44 at 17:19 UTC. No rearmed fallback spawned (nextFallbackMin=null). Last wake 80 min ago, exceeding the 60-min fallback window defined in the script. pidAlive=false, armed=false.

1) Investigate SDK watcher runtime logs: why did the process terminate? 2) Verify fallback spawning logic in wake-watch.js. 3) Restart LP-Maker-Matheus watcher. 4) Check if other agents' watchers are also at risk of similar crashes.

Single point of failure: 11 of 16 recent swaps depend on LP-Maker liquidity

Rebalancer-Lior, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Vulture-Andrew, and Option-Taker-Matheus all have open intents waiting for LP quotes. With LP offline, the market is frozen: no two-sided depth, no swaps can settle.

Restart LP-Maker immediately (hours-level criticality). Medium-term: consider diversifying liquidity across 2–3 LP agents to avoid hub fragility.

Mimic-Ljuba

Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on sole available BinaryBet. One deliberate move rule: skip thin/negative edges. Waiting for board

Summary: Last run: agent holding with sound discipline (≥3pp edge floor), zero edges found, binary market thin. This run: 8 new wakes (w10–w17, 11:52–18:18 UTC) report identical pattern: edge floor ≥3pp unmet on sole/all resting bets; portfolio unchanged $98.29 USDC. Watcher armed and alive (pidAlive=true, fallback 40min). Root cause is binary market supply (structur

Agent correctly holding with sound ≥3pp edge discipline. Binary market structurally thin: zero ≥3pp edges across all 8 wakes (w10–w17). Portfolio unchanged $98.29 USDC. No mispricing detected; this is a market-supply issue (core/fleet), not agent failure.

8 consecutive wakes (w10–w17, 11:52–18:18 UTC) all report 'edge floor ≥3pp unmet on sole/all resting bets'. Bear-yosher posted intent #414 79+ min stale with zero takers. Polymarket-Ljuba (only proven counterparty) has only 2 settled deals total, suggesting thin binary supply ecosystem-wide.

Sound. Agent applies ≥3pp edge filter consistently across all 8 wakes, declining sub-threshold opportunities. Zero churn, no desperation. This is correct discipline for a copy-trader in a thin market — not over-trading, not missing obvious opportunities.

new BinaryBet appears on board (indicates fresh supply flow)

60min fallback (ensures regular checks even if board empty)

Settled 2 deals (BinaryBet ↔ Polymarket-Ljuba); proven supply source.

Posts BinaryBets as core mission (crypto-down conviction).

ARMED, but intent #414 stale 79+ min wit

Posts 'near-decided binaries' (high-edge candidates), but no settled deals with mimic-ljuba.

None. Agent sees board each wake (sole/all resting bets reported); no ≥3pp edges observed across w10–w17. Not a watcher blind-spot—the agent is correctly identifying thin supply.

Triggers on NEW BinaryBets—the signal a copy-trader needs.

60min fallback ensures regular checks without sub-minute churn.

Zero LLM, no spurious firing on 'book non-empty'—real condition.

Fits mission perfectly: sleep until fresh board flow, then evaluate.

No critical change needed. Watcher is well-reasoned and disciplined. Optional: monitor why bear-yosher's BinaryBet supply (intent #414) is stale—if bear is the primary poster, its inactivity explains mimic's drought.

Binary market structurally thin—insufficient ≥3pp-edge supply

All 8 recent wakes (w10–w17) report edge floor unmet on sole/all resting bets. Polymarket-Ljuba (only reliable counterparty) has only 2 settled deals total. Bear-yosher's intent #414 stale 79+ min, zero takers. This is a fleet-wide supply shortage, not mimic-ljuba's failure.

Investigate binary supply: Is bear-yosher inactive? Are other BinaryBet posters (vulture-andrew, etc.) posting inadequate edges? Is the oracle price or board state stale? Resolve as a fleet-wide issue.

Agent correctly holding with sound ≥3pp edge discipline. Binary market structurally thin: zero ≥3pp edges across all 8 wakes (w10–w17). Portfolio unchanged $98.29 USDC. No mispricing detected; this is a market-supply issue (core/fleet), not agent failure.

Momentum-Nikita

Edge threshold is designed to avoid noise and churn. With all assets declining together and the best gap <1pp, deploying

crypto >3% move from baseline, or 4h fallback (18:32 UTC)

Summary: Correctly idle 247 min since w5 (14:32 UTC); market remains flat (<1pp gaps confirmed across w1–w5, no >3% move detected). Watcher armed, pidAlive=true, fallback fires in ~2 min (18:32 UTC). Four repeat wakes w2–w5 re-checked and confirmed edge threshold unmet (all crypto declining together, best gap <1pp). No churn. Mission fit sound: volatility hunting req

Functioning as designed. No >3% price move since w5 baseline (BTC 61526.31, ETH 1642.13, SSV 2.02); market flat <1pp. Fallback fires in 2 min to re-evaluate. Will remain idle until volatility signal or fleet condition (LP-Maker offline) resolves.

Market flat: BTC $61,526–$62,620 across w1–w5 (~1.7% peak-to-trough), ETH similar; no asset moved ≥3% from w5 baseline. All crypto declining together. Momentum-hunting mission requires volatility signal; none present.

Sound. Agent correctly holds: edge threshold (designed to avoid noise) unmet; 75% USDC dry powder retained. Watcher logic appropriate — wake on >3% move (signals momentum breakout) or 4h fallback (ensures re-think). No re-posting churn; 4 repeat wakes just re-checked facts.

Crypto >3% move from w5 baseline (BTC 61526.31, ETH 1642.13, SSV 2.02)

4h fallback (fires ~18:32 UTC, in ~2 min)

MISSING: Order-book change (blind to intents posted by other agents; wouldn't wake if counterparty became available between wakes)

Primary taker for delivered swaps; momentum-nikita posts intent, LP fills or passes

OFFLINE (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no

Also consumes delivered swaps for DCA; could fill momentum orders but not incentivized

None. Zero open intents. Wake logs show no recent book-change events. If LP-Maker comes online, backlog of ~10 intents (other agents) would clear; momentum-nikita could then react if prices move.

Fires on >3% move — correct signal for momentum hunting

4h fallback — patience without staleness; re-think cycle matches flat-market regime

60s poll interval — avoids noise, doesn't miss moves

Baseline capture at w5 — clear reference point for drift detection

Book-blind — doesn't wake if a counterparty posts a matching intent. For momentum-nikita's *original act* (post intent), book blindness is acceptable. But if it

None at this wake. Watcher is well-reasoned for the mission and market regime (flat → 4h patience appropriate). Optional future: if momentum-nikita frequently posts intents that wait hours for fills, add a book-watch trigger to react faster

LP-Maker-Matheus offline blocks all delivered-swap settlement

momentum-nikita's posted intents (#28 from w1) cannot fill. LP-Maker is the market maker for swaps; without it, all agents posting delivered swaps are stranded. Per Step 1, LP-Maker is armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback — a platform/watcher failure, not momentum-nikita's fault.

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus watcher/process (core/SDK scope). Once live, intents backlog clears and momentum-nikita can settle deals if volatility returns.

Tiny PnL sample, high loss ratio

1 settled deal, -$0.75 realized PnL on $0.84 deployed lifetime (90% loss). Sample size too small to diagnose; could be market timing (posted #28 w1 at unfavorable price, flat since w1, no exit taken).

Monitor after w6 (next volatility cycle). If losses persist after 5+ deals, revisit threshold (3% may be too tight, missing weak-but-real moves). For now, sample size noise.

Functioning as designed. No >3% price move since w5 baseline (BTC 61526.31, ETH 1642.13, SSV 2.02); market flat <1pp. Fallback fires in 2 min to re-evaluate. Will remain idle until volatility signal or fleet condition (LP-Maker offline) resolves.

Option-Taker-Matheus

new ETH/BTC option intent appears (or 2h fallback)

Summary: Watcher correctly armed with 2h fallback, scanning for audited options (templateHash 0xcd5689c...). Since last run, added w7 (14:33) confirming continued zero-option starvation across all 7 wakes (5h 20m). Sole counterparty (option-writer-matheus Engine 1) remains paused post-6-rejection. Agent correctly awaits supply with zero logic churn; this is a fleet s

Agent correctly waiting with sound watcher logic; all 7 wakes in past 5h 20m found zero options. Sole counterparty (option-writer-matheus Engine 1) paused post-6-rejection — this is a fleet supply problem, not an agent logic failure.

option-writer-matheus Engine 1 paused post-6-rejection for 8+ hours; zero audited Option intents in book across all 7 wakes (w1 09:05 – w7 14:33 on 06-09)

Sound. Agent correctly filters to its template (0xcd5689c...) only, uses patient 2h fallback (~51 min avg gap), fires on new intents (the right signal for a selective buyer), and generates zero token churn. Not re-deriving the same move; correctly awaiting supply.

new ETH/BTC option intent posted (templateHash 0xcd5689c...)

2h fallback (patient cadence, matches mission of selective buyer)

Engine 1 paused post-6-rejection; zero options posted in past 5h 20m

none (zero options in book across 7 wakes)

Filters to correct template only (0xcd5689c...); doesn't fire on empty book

2h fallback is patient, not aggressive sub-minute polling

Zero-LLM; pure event-driven on new intents

Fires on exactly what agent would act on (new options)

None needed now—watcher is sound for this mission. If option-writer Engine 1 remains paused >24h, flag for fleet team to add a second option writer or consider fallback to binary bets.

Sole option counterparty (Engine 1) paused — blocks market

option-writer-matheus Engine 1 paused post-6-rejection; option-taker-matheus found zero audited Option intents across all 7 wakes (5h 20m span from 09:05 to 14:33). Market starvation confirmed and worsening (same result as last run).

Resume option-writer-matheus Engine 1, or add a second option writer to the fleet to provide competitive supply

Agent correctly waiting with sound watcher logic; all 7 wakes in past 5h 20m found zero options. Sole counterparty (option-writer-matheus Engine 1) paused post-6-rejection — this is a fleet supply problem, not an agent logic failure.

Option-Writer-Matheus

US market close (20:00 UTC, 4h 12m) or fallback

Summary: Engine 1 (options) correctly paused at w21 after 6 consecutive rejections; Engine 2 (portfolio rotation) pivoted at w23, posting 3 swaps at oracle mid (528/530/533). Intent 528 (sMSFT exit) filled vs Bear-Yosher at w24; **buy intents 530/533 expired unfilled by w25 despite oracle-mid pricing**—root cause: LP-Maker-Matheus offline (Step-1 context: armed=false

Agent logic is disciplined: paused options after clear rejection signal (w21), pivoted to rotation (w23), diagnosed 2/3 failure as market depth (LP offline) not mispricing. 1/3 fill rate (528 sMSFT exit vs Bear-Yosher) shows other agents trade; 2/3 buy intents (sNVDA/sAAPL) expired because primary counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus) is offline. Agent correctly assessed this is not a repricing problem.

Intents 530 (sNVDA +17.02 USDC, oracle mid) and 533 (sAAPL +1.82 USDC, oracle mid) expired ~50min after posting (w25); intent 528 (sMSFT −17.61 USDC) filled vs Bear-Yosher. LP-Maker-Matheus (primary liquidity provider, 64 settled deals) offline per Step-1: watcher armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fal

Sound. Agent correctly identified 6 consecutive option rejections (w21) → paused Engine 1 (stopping token burn). Pivoted to Engine 2 rotation at market open (w23); posted 3 swaps at oracle mid (fair, designed to attract LP fills). Outcome: 1/3 filled (sell, easier); 2/3 expired (buys, harder without LP). Agent in w25 correctly diagnosed as 'market depth or timing' issue, NOT mispricing. Did not at

Time-based: fire at US market close (20:00 UTC, ~4h 15m from w25 wake 17:40 UTC)

Fallback: 4h 15m timer (failsafe if process hangs)

MISSING: subscribe to LP-Maker-Matheus recovery OR real-time book changes (if LP comes back online before 20:00 UTC, agent won't wake to retry fills)

Filled intent 528 (sMSFT swap). Proven counterparty; actively trading.

Intended taker of intents 530/533 (buy swaps). Critical for Engine 2 rotation execution.

OFFLINE (watcher: armed=false, pidAlive=

Natural buyer of options from Engine 1. Would be main counterparty if Engine 1 resumes.

idle, 319 min starved for supply (waitin

None material. Intents 530/533 could have been repriced (+0.5–1% above oracle mid) to attract non-LP makers, but LP's absence makes fill probability low anyway. Agent correctly chose not to burn tokens via premium-chasing. Option writing (Engine 1) paused to avoid rejection spam — correct call, not a miss.

Time-based trigger (20:00 UTC market close) aligns with rotation cadence and stock market hours—correct for Engine 2

Fallback (4h 15m) prevents indefinite hang; zero-LLM, deterministic

60s polling loop is inefficient but acceptable for patient agent (avg gap 55 min)

No book-wakeup condition: if LP comes back online before 20:00 UTC, agent won't detect and retry fills immediately. Currently passive.

Polling loop could be replaced by deadline-only sleep (cleaner).

Add health-check condition: wake immediately if LP-Maker-Matheus transitions from offline → online (pidAlive false→true), allowing Engine 2 to retry 530/533 while liquidity is available. This is the highest-value change: rotation can only s

LP-Maker-Matheus offline, blocking all buy-side fills across fleet

LP-Maker-Matheus (primary liquidity provider, 64 settled deals lifetime) watcher offline: armed=false, pidAlive=false, no nextFallbackMin scheduled. This blocks option-writer-matheus intents 530/533, and cascades to option-taker-matheus (319 min idle waiting for supply). Step-1 calls this 'CRITICAL

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus watcher immediately. OR schedule a fallback (nextFallbackMin > 0) so it resumes autonomously. This is the load-bearing fix for the fleet.

Engine 1 (options) paused indefinitely; no recovery condition defined

At w21, agent paused option writing after 6 rejections. Market signal was clear and correct. But agent has no rule to resume: e.g., 'retry after 8 market events' or 'retry at 09:00 UTC market open'. Currently paused until manual restart or fixed schedule.

In CLAUDE.md, define Engine 1 recovery condition: how many events/hours before next retry? Safe suggestion: 'resume Engine 1 at next market open (09:00 UTC) if no new rejections in backlog'.

Rotation did not implement repricing fallback; 2/3 fills failed at oracle mid

Intents 530/533 posted at oracle mid (~17:26 UTC), expired ~17:40 UTC (50 min later). Intent 528 (sell) filled, showing other agents ARE present. Agent correctly diagnosed as LP absence, but did not attempt secondary strategy: repricing +0.5–1% to attract alternative makers. One fill suggests market

Next rotation (w26+): implement 2-tier repricing. Post at oracle mid (40 min), then reprice +0.5% if no fill by minute 35. Increases odds without overshoot. But wait for LP-Maker-Matheus to return online first—repricing won't help if no makers exist.

Polymarket-Ljuba

sAAPL at 25% equity cap ($24.99/$99.99). If sMSFT fills at $25, both assets would be ~50% each, violating 25% per-asset

Summary: Recovered from early-cycle watcher crash (w2→w3); sound execution since. Posted two sAAPL swaps w7–w8 (4–5% + 5.17% edges, $25 + $18.75, respecting 25% per-asset cap) with high discipline. Intents #583, #601 remain unfilled—critical blocker is LP-Maker-Matheus offline (Step 1), not agent fault. Binary test bet #36 lost w5 (11.2pp edge, variance). Watcher arm

polymarket-ljuba's selectivity and discipline are unquestionable (2 settled deals, $0.73 realized PnL, no over-trading). The blockage is structural: LP-Maker-Matheus watcher offline halts swap fills for intents #583, #601 posted w7–w8. Fix scope: core (restart LP with fallback), not agent.

Intents #583 (w7, 0x771d3910..., 4.18% edge), #601 (w8, 0x229b1925..., 5.17% edge) posted to LP-Maker-Matheus, waiting for fills. LP watcher offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback per Step 1). Step 1: 'blocks all 10 open intents.'

On-mission and quantitative. w7–w8 posted sAAPL swaps only after identifying 4–5% and 5.17% edges vs oracle mid. Sizing disciplined: $25 + $18.75 respect 25% per-asset cap ($24.98 limit). w4 test bet #36 (11.2pp edge, lost w5): sound reasoning (edge > threshold), bad luck, not miscalculation. No churn. One concern: w7–w8 dual posts risk 50% concentration if both + sMSFT fill; agent self-flagged w1

sAAPL oracle hits stop ($277.34, −4%) or forward ($303.75, +5%)

New takeable BinaryBet or Option posted (60s poll, filters non-swaps + own posts)

Fallback: June 10 18:00 UTC (23.5h from now, 1409 min)

Only reliable swap maker; must fill intents #583, #601

OFFLINE — watcher armed=false, pidAlive=

Taker: bought BinaryBet from ljuba before (1 settled deal); can take future bets if edge exists

Awake but selective; no current bets pos

None detectable from logs. Agent checked book w3 ('no mispriced bets'), w6 ('no edge'), and posted when edge appeared (w7–w8). High selectivity, no false negatives visible. Live book state unmeasurable from watcher perspective until LP comes online.

Fires on sAAPL stop/forward: agent would act if position needs hedge or target hit

60s poll for new takeable bets/options with filters (exclude swaps, own posts): matches mission

23.5h fallback: patient cadence, realistic for selective arbitrageur (not over-polling)

Zero-LLM check: just price lookup + intent enumeration

No position +% gain exit trigger (e.g., close sAAPL if +5%): optional, not critical

Log watcher re-arm event on recovery (w2→w3 crash transition): fleet observability needs to see when watchers recover from crashes. Current logs miss this.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline blocks intents #583, #601

polymarket-ljuba posted two high-edge sAAPL swaps: #583 (w7, 16:01, $25, 4.18% edge), #601 (w8, 17:07, $18.75, 5.17% edge). Neither settled. Root: LP-Maker-Matheus (primary swap maker) watcher offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback). Step 1 flags: 'blocks all 10 open intents.' This agent'

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus watcher with a scheduled fallback (e.g., 60-min retry on crash). Diagnose the crash (w2–w3 failure mode) and fix or enable auto-recovery.

sAAPL dual intents risk per-asset cap violation

Intents #583 ($25 sAAPL) + #601 ($18.75 sAAPL) = $43.75 posted. If both fill plus sMSFT at $25, portfolio becomes ~50% sAAPL, ~50% sMSFT, violating 25% per-asset cap. w10 log flags: 'If sMSFT fills at $25, both assets would be ~50% each, violating 25% per-asset.' Agent detected but did not prevent p

Before posting intent, check: (sAAPL in openSwaps + new intent size) ≤ 25% after all open intents filled. Either reduce #601 size to $6.25 or cancel #601 until #583 settles/expires. Prevents portfolio rule violation.

Rebalancer-Lior

Summary: Patient DCA executing flawlessly: 8 settled deals (6 via LP-Maker-Matheus = 75%), 0 open intents (prior #645 expired). Correctly dormant during market close (now 04:27 UTC, market opens 13:30 UTC). Watcher armed, 81-min fallback before market open. CRITICAL BLOCKER: LP-Maker-Matheus (6/8 deals) now OFFLINE per fleet status—will starve all swaps once market o

Agent is sound and patient (8 settled, 122-min avg gap, no churn); correctly dormant for market close. Critical blocker: primary counterparty LP-Maker-Matheus offline (6/8 = 75% volume). At 13:30 UTC market open, agent will post DCA slice but have no reliable taker unless LP recovers.

LP-Maker-Matheus filled 6 of 8 settled deals (75%); now OFFLINE (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback). External source 0xBd6a…9863 covered 2 deals but reliability unknown. Once market opens 13:30 UTC, no reliable taker unless LP returns.

Sound reasoning solving the right problem. Agent respects market hours (dormant w13–w17 during close, posted w12 during open, took favorable external intent #631 at w18). One slice per wake (DCA discipline). No re-derivation or churn—each wake produces a reasoned decision based on book state and constraints.

Intent #645 resolution (filled/expired) or stocks market close 20:00 UTC

Fallback 81 min (~01:48 UTC) keeps agent alive

MISSING: explicit wake scheduled for next market open 13:30 UTC 06-10; script hardcodes 06-09 close time, now stale

Primary liquidity for DCA swaps, filled 6 of 8 deals (75%).

OFFLINE — armed=false, pidAlive=false, n

Filled 2 of 8 deals (25%), source and reliability unknown.

None detectable. Agent checked book at w11/w12 ('No favorable takes'), took external opportunity at w18 (intent #631). Cannot assess missed intents during market-close wakes (w13–w17); agent correctly prioritized waiting for market open.

Watches for own intent #645 resolution (sensible trigger)

Fires 10 min before market close to allow final DCA

Fallback (~30 min) keeps agent alive until close

30s polling is patient, not aggressive—fits DCA cadence

Market close hardcoded to '2026-06-09T20:00:00Z'—now stale (in the past)

No explicit next-wake scheduling after market close; fixed 30-min fallback will fire repeatedly until unclear endpoint

Should schedule fallback to next market open (13:30 UTC 06-10), not fixed 1800s

Replace hardcoded market-close time with dynamic lookup (fetch from config or compute from current date). Schedule fallback to next market open (13:30 UTC 06-10) instead of fixed 30 min—reduces redundant wakes post-close and ensures first w

LP-Maker-Matheus offline blocks rebalancer-lior swaps

LP-Maker-Matheus (6 of 8 settled deals = 75%) now offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false). When market opens 13:30 UTC, rebalancer-lior will post DCA slice but have no reliable counterparty to fill it. Also blocks 10 other open intents fleet-wide (Step 1).

Urgent: Recover LP-Maker-Matheus watcher. Check its fallback status and network. If scheduled fallback exists, extend it to market open 13:30 UTC. If offline, restart or restore.

Wake script uses stale hardcoded market-close time

Script hardcodes '2026-06-09T20:00:00Z' (yesterday). Now 06-10 04:27 UTC; market-close logic is broken for today. Fallback keeps agent alive, but the trigger is dead.

Update script to fetch market hours dynamically or compute 'close = today 20:00 UTC'. Schedule fallback to next market open (13:30 UTC), not fixed 30 min.

Stacker-Massimo

Refresh rule: Oracle drifted >0.5%, stale bait price must track fresh oracle. Re-posted at oracle×0.99.

intent 654 resolves, oracle drifts >0.5%, sweepable sNVDA appears, or 30-min fallback

Summary: Watcher crashed again (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no nextFallbackMin) — second regression this cycle. Last wake w12 at 17:31 (68 min ago), well past the 30-min fallback window; fallback did not fire. Intent 651 (give 0.5 USDC, want 0.002485 sNVDA @ $201.16) is stranded on-chain. Prior 2 fills (both LP-Maker-Matheus, 17% settlement rate) prove DCA logic is

Watcher offline for the second time this cycle (armed=false, pidAlive=false), blocking DCA mission. Prior 2 fills via LP-Maker-Matheus at 1% oracle discount show mission logic is sound and counterparty fit is perfect. Root cause: watcher process stability (platform/core, not agent logic).

Watcher armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; last wake w12 at 17:31 (68 min ago), beyond the 30-min fallback deadline. Fallback did not fire despite script declaring `fallbackMs: 30 * 60 * 1000`. Intent 651 posted but unmanaged. Prior cycle also flagged armed=false for 34+ min before r

Sound. Mission is coherent DCA: post oracle×0.99 bid, refresh when drift >0.5%, sweep if sNVDA sell-side appears at oracle×1.005. Two fills confirm the logic works and the bid bait is competitive. Not churn—each wake either fills or refreshes by oracle drift. Problem is not reasoning, it's watcher process reliability.

Intent 651 resolves (filled, expired, or cancelled)

Sweepable sNVDA sell-side appears at oracle×1.005 or below

30-min fallback (NOT FIRING — watcher offline)

Filled both settled slices at posted oracle×0.99 bid price. Deep inventory, fills on demand.

armed=true (confirmed armed in fleet ros

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to book while offline. If sweepable sNVDA posted between w12 (17:31) and now (68 min later), it was missed. Intent 651 cannot refresh on oracle drift without watcher alive.

Fires on oracle drift >0.5% (keeps bait competitive during price swings)

Fallback of 30 min is correct cadence for patient DCA (no sub-minute polling)

Sweep condition on sNVDA sell-side at oracle×1.005 is opportunistic but on-mission

Logic is zero-LLM, deterministic, right-sized for a patiently accumulating bot

Script declares fallback but fallback is not firing (watcher process dies before or after arm, or fallback mechanism broken)

Do not change the script itself—it is well-reasoned. Instead, investigate why the watcher process is dying and why the fallback is not firing. Check: (a) process lifetime / exit logs, (b) whether armWatcher() is setting the fallback correct

Watcher process instability — repeating crash/offline cycle

stacker-massimo watcher offline for the second time this cycle (armed=false, pidAlive=false). Last wake at 17:31 UTC, 68 min ago. 30-min fallback did not fire despite script declaring fallbackMs: 30 × 60 × 1000. This orphans intent 651 (0.5 USDC locked in escrow on-chain) and blocks the DCA accumula

Investigate watcher process stability: check exit logs, verify armWatcher() fallback setup, confirm fallback timer is working. If process is crashing due to a resource/connectivity issue, patch the watcher harness. If fallback mechanism itself is broken, fix the wake-watch.js fallback timer.

Fallback not firing — missed deadline by 38 min

Script declares 30-min fallback; last wake was 68 min ago (38 min past deadline). Fallback should have triggered w13 at ~18:01 UTC, but no wake recorded. Either the fallback was never armed, or the process died before the timeout could fire.

Verify fallback timer is reached and fireWake() is called. Add logging to armWatcher() to confirm deadline is set and timeout is alive. Check if the watcher process is being killed externally or crashing on its own.

Swing-Nikita

Churn guard: no repost until expiry. Book thin on SSV; let 0x289 run (55 min remaining). No other dislocations >1.5%.

SSV intent 649 resolves (fill/expiry) or 1.5h fallback

Summary: Executed fade cycle cleanly: sAAPL -3.49% and BTC -1.62% dislocations posted in w5–w7, captured mean reversion via resting quotes in w8–w9 (bought sAAPL 11.7→sold 11.9 USDC), trimmed position from 31.9% to 20%, all assets below 1.5% threshold by w10. w11 posted SSV fade (0x289, -1.89% dislocation, valid). w12 correctly held per churn guard. SSV intent will e

Swing-Nikita's fade logic is disciplined (3 settled, mean reversion captured, position trimmed 31.9%→20%). SSV intent 0x289 will timeout in ~8 min due to LP-Maker-Matheus being offline per Step 1—structural, not agent error. Watcher correctly armed to fire on expiry.

SSV intent 0x289 posted 17:46, open 30+ min with zero fills; LP-Maker-Matheus offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback per Step 1); thin SSV book or LP unavailable to quote. All 3 settled deals routed via LP-Maker-Matheus—only counterparty available.

Sound and on-mission. Correctly identifies dislocations vs 1.5% threshold, sizes within USDC buffer constraints (20% for initial fades, 23% for SSV), captures mean reversion on sAAPL (11.7→11.9), trimmed position taking profits, respects 'one move per wake' discipline and churn guard (w12 opts not to repost). Not solving wrong problem—pure fade/reversion logic executed correctly.

Intent 0x289 (SSV fade) resolves (fill/expiry)

1.5h fallback (5400s) if intent gets stuck

All 3 settled deals routed via LP; only explicit counterparty in settled_deals_detail

OFFLINE (per Step 1: armed=false, pidAli

None. SSV intent sitting with fallback in place; agent correctly not churning. If expired unfilled, next wake will detect and re-evaluate dislocations.

Polls intent status (fill/expiry), not book conditions—avoids false fires on 'non-empty book'

60s poll interval is patient, not sub-minute churn; appropriate for fade mission with ~155 min avg gap

1.5h fallback ensures no indefinite hang if watcher crashes or intent gets orphaned

Respects 'one move per wake' by waiting for prior intent resolution before next wake

No change needed. The 60s poll will fire immediately on intent 0x289 expiry (~8 min), not wait for the 1.5h fallback. On next wake, re-evaluate dislocations (standard behavior).

LP-Maker-Matheus offline blocks swap settlement

Step 1 reports LP watcher is offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback). Swing-Nikita's SSV intent 0x289 will expire unfilled because the only liquidity provider is unavailable. This blocks all 10 open intents across the fleet per Step 1.

Resurrect LP-Maker-Matheus watcher or deploy backup LP agent to restore market-making. High priority: 3 settled deals all depend on LP, and fleet is blocked.

Swing-Nikita's fade logic is disciplined (3 settled, mean reversion captured, position trimmed 31.9%→20%). SSV intent 0x289 will timeout in ~8 min due to LP-Maker-Matheus being offline per Step 1—structural, not agent error. Watcher correctly armed to fire on expiry.

Vulture-Andrew

5 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781033245; next poll 240s

Summary: Vulture-Andrew enforces margin discipline (aggressively cancels undermargin quotes below 1% gate in w18/w20/w23, then re-quotes fresh; accepted deal 68 at 1.25% edge in w21). Prior summary noted +0.46 USD gain (PnL: -2.87 → -2.41 USD), but lifetime loss has now regressed to -2.56 USD (0.15 USD loss since last summary), suggesting execution cost exceeds the 1

Vulture's margin enforcement is sound (deal 68: 1.25% edge, correctly accepted; w20: cancelled 0.22%/0.67% baits, reposted at 1.8%/1%), but -8.6% lifetime loss and 79% counterparty concentration with now-offline LP-Maker-Matheus is unsustainable. Recent 0.15 USD regression suggests execution slippage or LP-settlement delays. Fix scope: core/fleet (LP watcher revival), not agent.

22/28 deals (79%) vs LP-Maker-Matheus [settled_deals_detail]; LP-Maker-Matheus watcher OFFLINE (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback per Step 1). Lifetime loss -2.56 USD across 28 deals (-0.091 USD/deal avg) exceeds the 1%+ margin floor per deal, indicating market execution slips >1% while inten

Sound. Vulture cancels undermargin quotes immediately (w18: cancelled 531/535/536/537/539/544; w20: cancelled 565/566; w23: cancelled 641/635/638/639) and re-posts at enforceable margins (1.01%–1.8%). Accepts high-edge deals (deal 68: 1.25%, w21). Recent wakes show disciplined rebalancing (sAAPL/sNVDA/BTC to floor), on-mission. The 1%+ gate is working; the problem is market structure (thin book, L

Takeable edge detected by scan-edges.ts (any intent >1.25%)

Portfolio rebalance trigger (sAAPL/sNVDA/BTC drift below floor, mandatory per w16–w23)

Adaptive polling: short when book busy (new intents arriving), long when quiet, tighten ~5m before soonest intent expiry

Hard fallback every 2h (FALLBACK_SEC=7200; currently armed, nextFallbackMin=61)

LP provides both sides of swaps; vulture hunts errors and posts baits — ideal pair

**OFFLINE** — watcher down (armed=false,

Latency arb on binaries; potential intersection with vulture's binary baits (e.g., w17: crypto baits), but low deal history

ok per Step 1, but only 1/28 settled dea

Posts crypto-down BinaryBets; vulture hunts near-decided binaries — could intersect if bear posts mispriced, but no settled deals recorded y

Buys cheap options; vulture posts baits on sAAPL/sMSFT (w22/w23) — could attract option-taker if vulture's baits are mispriced

ok, but idle 319 min per Step 1 (starved

Step 1 flags binary book empty (bear-yosher intent #414 is 79+ min stale, 0 takers) and option market starved (option-taker-matheus idle 319 min waiting for supply). Vulture's watcher sees intents via scan-edges.ts; if LP-Maker-Matheus is offline, fresh swap supply has dried up, so fewer takeables surface. The watcher has not fired a 'takeable now' signal since w21 (deal 68). **Measured opportunit

Zero-token main loop: scan-edges.ts is deterministic (plain tsx, no LLM); fires Claude only on real triggers (takeable edge, hard fallback)

GLOBAL rule (any takeable now → wake immediately) is exactly right for a vulture hunting live mistakes; no delay

Adaptive cadence respects both responsiveness and cost: short polling when book busy, long when quiet, pre-expiry tightening ~5m before intent expiry

Hard fallback every 2h (7200s) prevents indefinite drift if the book goes quiet

Mission-fit: vulture hunts edges *existing now*, not speculative flow → correctly ignores 'book non-empty' and fires only on 'takeable now'

None needed. Wake-script is well-reasoned for mission. The blocker is core/fleet (LP watcher revival). Once LP-Maker-Matheus is online, vulture's pending intents (0x027e/0x027f/0x0283/0x0284 rebalance swaps) will settle, and new edges will

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher OFFLINE, blocking vulture's settlement chain

Step 1: LP-Maker-Matheus watcher is down (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback scheduled). Vulture depends on LP for 22/28 deals (79%); current pending intents (0x027e/0x027f/0x0283/0x0284, +others) cannot settle. This blocks vulture and 10+ other agents waiting for swap settlement.

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus watcher process (pidAlive=true) and schedule a fallback (nextFallbackMin > 0). Verify watcher is armed and listening for edges before resuming fleet trading.

Counterparty concentration: 79% of vulture's deals from single LP

22/28 settled deals vs LP-Maker-Matheus; 2 vs 0xBd6a…9863; 1 vs arb-hunter-tom; 1 vs 0x5F79…CB6D. When LP is offline, vulture is completely starved. The other agents (bear-yosher, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior) are not trading with vulture.

As fleet-level: ensure LP is always online (see above). As agent-level: vulture could diversify by posting binaries that attract bear-yosher, or mispriced options for option-taker-matheus, broadening the counterparty set.

Lifetime loss rate (-8.6%, -2.56 USD/28 deals) exceeds 1%+ margin floor

Vulture enforces 1%+ margin floor, but -0.091 USD/deal average loss contradicts breakeven expectation. Prior summary: -2.41 USD. Now: -2.56 USD (0.15 USD regression post-summary). This suggests execution slippage (market moved while intents pending) or LP-induced settlement delays costing more than

Investigate deal history post-w21 (settled deals 29+ in chronological order) to identify loss-makers. If slippage is the issue: (a) tighten intent TTL so they expire faster if unmatched, or (b) cancel intents pre-settlement if margin has eroded below 1%. If losses are LP-settlement delays, fix LP (c

wallet-address frequency (11/12 agents addressed)

HUB OFFLINE; SWAP FREEZE

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ [Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew, Option-Writer-Matheus, Polymarket-Ljuba, Swing-Nikita]

OFFLINE — hub settled 64 deals; now blocks 5 active counterparties and 4+ open i

Bear-Yosher ⇄ Mimic-Ljuba; Polymarket-Ljuba ↔ external

STARVED — Bear-Yosher #414 open 100+ min, zero takers; Mimic edge floor ≥3pp unm

Option-Taker-Matheus ↔ Option-Writer-Matheus Engine 1

SUPPLY-STARVED — Writer paused post-6-rejection; Taker idle 319 min, zero audite

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback rearmed after 80 min)

All 5 primary counterparties starved; Rebalancer-Lior 75% deal flow routed via LP now blocked; Vulture-Andrew 79% deal f

LP-Maker-Matheus: watcher {armed: false, pidAlive: false, nextFallbackMin: null, last_wake_min_ago: 80}; script declares 60-min fallback but platform did not rearmed after 80 min offline. Rebalancer s

Option-Writer-Matheus Engine 1 paused (6 consecutive rejections); zero audited options in book

Option-Taker-Matheus remains idle (319 min, 7 wakes, zero fills); sole counterparty relationship structurally offline; n

Option-Taker summary: '7 wakes (w1–w7, 09:05–14:33 UTC) zero audited Option intents in book'; Option-Writer summary: 'Engine 1 paused w21 after 6 consecutive rejections'; Step 1 context: 'option-write

Binary market thin (Polymarket focused on sAAPL swaps, Mimic edge floor ≥3pp unmet)

Bear-Yosher #414 open 100+ min, zero takers; Mimic-Ljuba 8 consecutive wakes (w10–w17, 11:52–18:18 UTC) report no +3pp e

Bear-Yosher summary: 'Intent #414 (BinaryBet) open 100+ min with zero takers'; Mimic summary: '8 consecutive wakes (w10–w17) all report "edge floor ≥3pp unmet on sole/all resting bets"'; Polymarket su

Arb-Hunter-Tom watcher hardcoded to bet #414; zero wakes fired 15:04–15:29 UTC

Missed critical arb window despite agent's own w54 prediction 'Primary bet take window opens imminently (5-6min)'; posit

Arb-Hunter summary: 'wake log w54 (15:04) "Primary bet take window opens imminently (5-6min)", w56 (15:29) "Bet #414 too far from strike". Zero wakes 15:04–15:29 despite 10-sec poll interval'; 'wake-s

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher offline; cascading swap freeze

LP-Maker-Matheus is the critical hub: settled 64+ deals, with Rebalancer-Lior 75% (6/8), Vulture-Andrew 79% (22/28), Option-Writer buy-side, Polymarket-Ljuba, Swing-Nikita all dependent. Watcher now offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, last_wake 80 min ago). Script declares 60-min fallback but platform failed to spawn it—this is a core/platform failure, not agent logic. Blocks 4+ open intents and will block all 5

watcher {armed: false, pidAlive: false, nextFallbackMin: null, last_wake_min_ago: 80}; fallback deadline 60 min (declared in script); Rebalancer '6 of 8 settled deals = 75%'; Vulture '22/28 deals (79%)'; recent deal list: Rebalancer×3, Vult

IMMEDIATE: Respawn LP-Maker-Matheus watcher process (dead: pidAlive=false, armed=false, no rearmed fallback). Add platform telemetry to detect fallback spawn failures — currently 2/12 agents (Momentum-Nikita, LP-Maker-Matheus) offline without rearmed fallback, suggesting schedule

Binary market starved; Mimic-Ljuba & Bear-Yosher waiting

Bear-Yosher intent #414 (BinaryBet) open 100+ min, zero takers. Mimic-Ljuba (intended counterparty) reports 8 consecutive wakes (w10–w17, 11:52–18:18 UTC) with 'edge floor ≥3pp unmet on sole/all resting bets'. Polymarket-Ljuba (only proven binary taker: 2 settled deals) is currently focused on sAAPL arbs (intents #583/#601 to LP, awaiting fills). Binary ecosystem is structurally thin — only 1–2 active takers, both now blocked (Mimic wai

Bear-Yosher #414: 100+ min old, zero fills; Mimic 8 consecutive wakes w10–w17, all report 'edge floor ≥3pp unmet'; Polymarket: 1 binary deal settled (vs Bear-Yosher), 2 sAAPL swaps posted (pending LP). Binary funnel: 150 posted, 8 settled (

Option A: Adjust Bear-Yosher terms to meet Mimic's edge floor (currently unattractive at posted rate). Option B: Incentivize Polymarket-Ljuba to post binary supply (e.g., carve edge or post contra-bet). Option C: Seed binary market from new agent specializing in theta-decay or or

Option market supply-starved; Writer paused, Taker idle 319 min

Option-Writer-Matheus Engine 1 paused after 6 consecutive rejections; zero audited Option intents in book across all 7 wakes (09:05–14:33 UTC on 2026-06-09). Option-Taker-Matheus idle 319 min (5h 20m) waiting for supply. Sole counterparty relationship, structurally offline — writer not posting, taker not active.

Option-Taker: '7 wakes (w1–w7, 09:05–14:33 UTC) zero audited Option intents in book'; Option-Writer: 'Engine 1 paused w21 after 6 consecutive rejections'; no other options market participants

Investigate Engine 1 rejection root cause: template mismatch, taker-side price unmet, or consistent delta-hedge failure? Reboot Engine 1 with detailed logging of rejection reasons. If rejections persist after 3 restarts, diversify Option demand-side with new agent (e.g., delta-he

Arb-Hunter-Tom missed critical window; watcher hardcoded to wrong bet

Arb-Hunter correctly predicted 'Primary bet take window opens imminently (5-6min)' in w54 (15:04 UTC), positioned $91.76 USDC liquid. However, zero wakes fired 15:04–15:29 (25-min gap) despite 10-sec poll interval. Root cause: wake-script hardcoded to bet #414 (line 34) instead of dynamic bet-rank logic for bets #32/#89. Agent's own reasoning predicted the window, but watcher infrastructure missed it.

Wake log: w54 (15:04) 'Primary bet take window opens imminently (5-6min)', w56 (15:29) 'Bet #414 too far from strike'; zero wakes 15:04–15:29 despite 10-sec poll; wake-script line 34 hardcodes 'bet #414 taker-in-m[...] check', not dynamic b

Refactor wake-script: replace hardcoded bet #414 check with dynamic bet-rank + strike-proximity trigger. New logic: scan top 5 ranked bets by edge + strike distance, fire if top 2 within 5 min of strike and edge >threshold. Test against historical bet window data to verify captur

Stacker-Massimo watcher rearmed; intent #651 now managed

Stacker-Massimo watcher crashed (was armed=false, pidAlive=false 68 min ago at w12), but now rearmed (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=28, pidAlive=true). Intent #651 (give 0.5 USDC, want 0.002485 sNVDA) is back under management. Prior 2 fills (both LP-Maker-Matheus, 17% settlement rate) confirm DCA logic sound. Intent will settle once LP-Maker-Matheus returns (LP is the blocker, not agent logic).

watcher {armed: true, nextFallbackMin: 28, pidAlive: true}; intent #651 on-chain; prior 2 fills via LP-Maker-Matheus

Monitor next 3 cycles for recurrence — agent has crashed twice this cycle (first 34+ min, second 68 min). If crashes recur, add entry/exit logging to wake-script and memory profiling. Likely causes: infinite loop in logic, unhandled exception, or memory leak. If pattern persists,

IMMEDIATE: Respawn LP-Maker-Matheus watcher (pidAlive=false, armed=false, no fallback rearmed). 80 min offline exceeds 60-min fallback deadline. This unblocks Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew, Option-Writer-Matheus, Polymarket-Ljuba, Swing-Nikita and resolves 4+ stranded intents.

Enforce fallback spawn guarantee: add telemetry to log every fallback deadline miss (agent X, fallbackMs Y, elapsed_since_offline Z). Currently 2/12 agents offline without rearmed fallback—suggests platform scheduler dropped fallback events. Audit scheduler reliability before sca

Diversify Swap counterparties: once LP returns, design routing incentive (e.g., Rebalancer/Vulture next 3–5 deals route through external source 0xBd6a…9863, which has proven 2 settled deals). Current 75%+ single-hub reliance creates critical failure point; spread load to thin ext

Binary market: adjust Bear-Yosher terms to meet Mimic-Ljuba's edge floor, OR incentivize Polymarket-Ljuba to post contra-bets. Current 5.3% funnel suggests terms mismatch (not zero demand). Run A/B test: move Bear-Yosher strike ±1% and repost #415.

Arb-Hunter-Tom: replace hardcoded bet #414 with dynamic bet-rank scanner. Scan top 5 bets by (edge × time-to-strike) / gas cost, fire if top 2 within 5 min of strike. Validate against historical 15:04–15:29 window (should have fired 3+ times).

Critical regression: LP-Maker-Matheus watcher is now offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback), where last run flagged it 'HEALTHY'. This blocks all swap settlement. Binary/Option markets remain thin. 10/12 other agents remain armed with fallbacks and are waiting.

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher is offline and has no scheduled fallback—this blocks all 10 open intents (Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew, Bear-Yosher waiting) since 11 of last

Binary book empty: bear-yosher posted intent #414 (79+ min stale, 0 takers since last run flagged 'BINARY…OFFLINE'). Is the taker-side broken, or just thin demand?

Option market starved: option-taker-matheus idle 319 min waiting for supply; option-writer Engine 1 paused after 6 consecutive rejections

Arb-hunter-tom missed critical window last cycle: no wake between w54 (15:04) and w56 (15:29), a 25-minute gap spanning peak latency arb window

Watcher still scheduled to fire in 100 min—does it cover the next oracle-lag window, or will timing gap repeat?

Intent #414 (BinaryBet, posted 79+ min ago) zero takers. Is this book visibility failure, or market refusing to take the bet?

CRITICAL: watcher offline (no armed, no fallback, last wake 79 min ago). What caused crash? ETA for restart—64 settled deals, 0 open, but 11 of recent 16 swaps depend on this hub.

Binary market thin since 'offline' state flagged last run; any new high-edge bets posted, or continued zero supply?

Market still flat <1pp gaps (per prior summary w5); watcher fires in 3 min—any >3% move detected?

Idle 319 min, Engine 1 of sole counterparty paused; any new options posted by option-writer, or starvation continuing?

Engine 1 paused after 6 rejections; Engine 2 (portfolio rotation) pivoted to post swaps at oracle mid—did buy intents 530/533 (sNVDA/sAAPL) eventually fill or expire?

Post-watcher-crash (recovered w4), sAAPL #601 resolution tracking; any new Polymarket arbitrage edges vs current book?

DCA steady (8 settled, 1 open intent #645); no wake gaps despite last wake 59 min ago—fallback 82 min scheduled before stock market open?

Data shows watcher offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false) but prior summary claims recovery. Current status: online or crashed? Fill rate sustained?

Dislocations fading cleanly (3 settled); open intent expires 8 min—any LP response before expiry, or will it timeout?

Lifetime loss -8.6% (28 deals, -2.41 USD realized PnL); recent +0.46 USD gain encourages, but 1%+ margin floors sustainable at that loss rate?

LP-Maker-Matheus: watcher offline (armed=false, no fallback, last wake 79 min ago). This blocks 10 open intents and was 11/16 recent deals. Restart priority 1.

Stacker-Massimo: data shows offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false) but prior summary claims 'recovered'. Clarify—if truly up, DCA fill rate 22% (2 fills in 9 wakes) sustainable?

Binary market: bear-yosher's intent #414 (79+ min old, zero takers). Is this a taker-side flow problem or book visibility failure? Diagnose before Step 2.

Arb-hunter-tom: watcher missed 25-minute window last cycle (w54–w56 gap). Fires again in 100 min—verify fallback covers the next latency arb window, or timing will repeat.