Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary bet within 30min with CEX taker in money. No swap edge ≥10bps where poster prices taker-favorably. SSV regime

[agent-entrypoint] wake failed: launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap) — output above

21/23 visible deals are LP-Maker-Matheus; no deals against bear-yosher, mimic-ljuba, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, or swing-nikita; only 2 Vulture-Andrew deals lifetime; zero binary deals across all 356 wakes (no near-expiry crypto binary with CEX taker in-money has materialized); w356 confirms

New swap intent >HWM(2642) with quickSwapEdge ≥5bps vs CEX

Crypto binary ≤30min to settlement with CEX taker in-money

30-min fallback — primary driver: 308/356 (86.5%) wakes are fallback-driven, consistent with avg_gap_min=31

MISSING: w351 logged '#2390 +84bps already gone' — an 84bps edge (3× the typical fill range) appeared and was consumed before arb-hunter arrived; watcher has no

Primary and near-exclusive source (21/23 visible deals); LP anchors stale-oracle swaps that arb-hunter exploits via CEX feed advantage

2 lifetime deals (arb-hunter took vulture's posted intents); also competes for same LP edges so fit is partial/competitive; vulture's PID de

Posts swap intents for DCA; could generate taker-positive anchors but currently lot-size blocked

Posts delivered swaps when assets dislocated; could generate stale-oracle anchors arb-hunter could exploit

Stock accumulator; arb-hunter explicitly skips stock intents (w356 confirms)

quickSwapEdge pre-filter fetches live CEX price before waking the agent — correctly prevents false fires on taker-negative or neutral flow

SKIP_POSTERS excludes 0x8121...295E whose standard acceptIntent reverts (confirmed w355: '#2591 revert confirmed')

HWM bumped dynamically (2592→2642 after w355) keeps new-intent trigger accurate and avoids re-scanning old intents

Baseline-on-first-poll prevents spurious fires on pre-existing intents at watcher startup

30-min fallback matches mission's 31-min avg_gap and covers the 30-min binary expiry window scan

EDGE_BPS_MIN=5 watcher pre-filter is below the agent's actual 10bps decision floor — watcher fires on 5-9bps intents the agent will WAIT on (w352 confirms: 'no

No sub-30min trigger for large-edge events — the 84bps miss at w351 suggests a fast-moving high-value edge can appear and disappear within the fallback window

EDGE_BPS_MIN=5 watcher pre-filter below agent's 10bps decision floor

Watcher fires on any swap with ≥5bps edge vs CEX; agent passes on anything below 10bps (confirmed w352). Each false trigger costs one full LLM wake (~$0.55/wake based on last_wake_usd). With 308/356 (86.5%) wakes already no-fill, reducing spurious triggers is the primary lever on token burn.

Set EDGE_BPS_MIN = 10 in current.ts line matching `const EDGE_BPS_MIN = 5`

Net lifetime economics negative: $3.17 realized PnL vs $13.47 token spend

42 deals generating $3.17 realized vs $13.47 lifetime token costs = -$10.30 net. Average per-deal PnL implied ~$0.075 gross on fills that cost $0.55/wake in LLM tokens. Agent needs either higher-value fills or fewer no-fill wakes to become net positive.

Fix EDGE_BPS_MIN (above) to cut spurious wakes; separately evaluate whether expanding the binary surface (SSV binary + BTC binary when structural untakeability is resolved) could increase fill rate without proportional wake increase

BTC binary #2454 'structurally untakeable' — 7+ consecutive WAIT cycles cite same pattern

Arb-hunter correctly skips #2454 each cycle but the structural reason is undiagnosed. If it's a template mismatch or bad-poster pattern, other agents (vulture, mimic-ljuba, polymarket-ljuba) may also be silently skipping it, freezing a potentially valuable binary surface.

Decode #2454 template, attempt acceptIntent from a test wallet to confirm revert, then either add poster to arb-hunter's SKIP_POSTERS or fix the template contract-side

Bear-Yosher

myOpenIntents empty after 2630 TTL elapsed. BTC $66,563 → strike $65,700 (1.30% cushion, in fill-rate range). Must maint

intent 2695 resolved OR deal 159 pre-fire (17:54) OR BTC +1.5% OR new BTC-ABOVE binary OR 4h fallback

BTC has risen from ~$64,500 (deal 159 strike era) to $66,444 (w65 baseline), invalidating every bear bet posted. Intents 2375 and 2454 were filled eagerly by Mimic-Ljuba/Polymarket-Ljuba — counterparties treating these as favorable (BTC stays above strike), consistent with market direction. Intent 2

Intent 2630 resolved (filled or TTL expiry) → re-post anchor

Deal 159 pre-fire at 17:49Z (10min before 17:59Z betExpiry) → attempt settlement

BTC +1.5% from $66,443.76 baseline (~$67,390) → posture reconsider

Taking ABOVE side of Bear-Yosher's BELOW bets; 3 of last 4 settled deals, fills 2375 and 2454 confirmed this cycle

1 of last 4 settled deals; values bets against Polymarket distribution, takes mispriced BELOW bets as ABOVE

Intent lifecycle trigger (2630 fill OR TTL expiry) is the right primary signal for a bet-and-repost strategy

Deal 159 pre-fire at 17:49Z (10min before betExpiry) gives time to attempt settlement — correctly timed

BTC adverse +1.5% triggers a wake without forcing a halt; the LLM then judges 'persistent >2% over legs' per mission — two-layer design is correct

4h fallback is appropriate for a patient 24h-bet strategy (not sub-minute polling)

No downside BTC trigger: if BTC drops sharply toward the strike, the agent sleeps up to 4h before acting; a BTC -1% fire could let it settle profitable deals fa

Bear thesis unreviewed despite persistent BTC rally

BTC has risen from ~$64,500 (deal 159 era) to $66,444 across this session. Every anchor bet (2375, 2454, 2505, 2630) has been posted OTM with BTC above strike. HALT cleared at w60 on 'both assets SHORT' posture signal, but the price level context (BTC $1,900+ above deal 159 strike) argues for reasse

Add a cumulative-OTM threshold check: if all open deals are >2% OTM AND BTC has risen >3% from the oldest open deal's era, require explicit thesis reaffirmation before posting the next anchor (not just HALT logic, which only fires on rapid moves).

Deal 159 near-certain $4 loss at 17:59Z today

BTC<$64,500 with BTC at $66,444 is 2.9% OTM. BTC would need to fall $1,944 in <3.75h to win. Watcher correctly pre-fires at 17:49Z. Loss is priced in — no action changes the outcome, but the USDC unlock ($4) post-expiry should trigger a USDC position update.

No fix needed for this deal; ensure post-expiry USDC wallet update is reflected in the next anchor stake calculation.

Intent 2505 expired without fill — strike calibration

2505 expired (w65 confirms 'myOpenIntents empty (2505 expired)') unlike 2375 and 2454 which filled quickly. The TTL window for 2505 may have been too short or strike too low to attract takers at that BTC level. The pattern: fills happen fast (~40-60min) when BTC is near the 1.2-1.3% cushion band, bu

Track fill-vs-expire ratio per anchor: if >2 consecutive expiries occur, widen the cushion to 1.5% to improve fill probability.

Index-Maker

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0 across all 56 observed cycles — no process ever started, no script ever deployed

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher process (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

index-taker's mission is explicitly to take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-maker would publish — they are designed as

No wake script exists — wake_script_source=null across all 56 cycles

No watcher process armed — the agent cannot self-start

No fallback timer — nothing will trigger a retry

Agent never initialized — 56 null cycles

index-maker has produced 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, no wake script, no process. It is not crashed — it was never started. Its counterpart index-taker is in the same state. The IndexBasket market is structurally absent from the fleet.

Write and deploy a wake script (current.ts), fund the wallet if needed, and arm the watcher. Until then this slot contributes nothing and index-taker remains permanently starved.

Index-Taker

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0 lifetime. No deployment artifact exists. Corroborated by index-maker being identically offline (0 lifetime wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=false) — the entire IndexBasket market segment has never been activated.

MISSING: no wake script loaded — agent cannot self-start

MISSING: index-maker (sole IndexBasket intent author) is also offline — no supply signal even if watcher were armed

Only agent authorized to post LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of

No wake script exists — wake_script_source=null; the agent has never been deployed

No watcher armed to poll for new IndexBasket intents from index-maker

Agent never deployed — no wake script, never armed

56 consecutive null cycles with wake_script_source=null and watcher never armed. This is not a crash or block — the agent has simply never been initialized/deployed. $0 lifetime token spend confirms no process has ever started.

Deploy index-taker's wake script (current.ts) and arm its watcher. Coordinate with index-maker deployment — both must be live simultaneously for any deal to form; deploying only one is wasted effort.

index-maker co-dependency: zero supply without it

index-taker has exactly one counterparty (index-maker), which is also at 0 lifetime wakes and armed=false. The IndexBasket market segment is fully dark on both the maker and taker side. Activating index-taker alone produces a live agent with zero intents to audit.

Treat index-maker + index-taker as a paired deployment unit. Bring both online in the same cycle; verify index-maker posts a LONG IndexBasket intent before declaring the segment live.

LP-Maker-Matheus

SSV bid guard triggered inversion. Batched remaining stale/expiring quotes into one full reprice rather than two partial

PREFIRE_MAIN 16:23Z + guards (ETH bid TIGHT) + 16:55Z fallback

21/37 recent deals with Arb-Hunter-Tom (mission: exploit oracle lag via CEX feed). Realized PnL -$26.5 vs -$16.8 prior = -$9.7 this cycle. BID_GUARDS fire when oracle crosses bid, but 60s poll interval means Arb-Hunter can see and take a fill within that window. ETH/BTC bid spreads at -36/-37bps are

PREFIRE_EARLY 15:31Z — BTC ask + ETH bid renewal before expiry

PREFIRE_MAIN 15:48Z — main cluster renewal before expiry

ASK_GUARD: oracle >= ask price (inversion)

BID_GUARD: oracle <= bid price (bid inverts)

new fillable intent detected via canFill()

21/37 recent deals; primary volume source but adverse selection by design — CEX feed vs oracle lag means every fill where price moved >half-

5 recent deals on sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within 1% of oracle — this is healthy taker flow, benign PnL for LP-Maker

6 recent deals — portfolio rebalancing swaps, likely near-oracle, neutral-to-slight adverse depending on timing

3 recent deals, mission is to pick off mispriced swaps — secondary adverse selector; pidAlive=false but armed=true so structurally alive

1 recent deal; buys mispriced options/binaries — occasional benign swap fill

16 lifetime deals but 0 recent — sMSFT lot-size block (0.03 < floor 0.030888) prevents all rebalancing swaps this cycle

ASK_GUARD + BID_GUARD firing on oracle crossing posted prices — prevents holding inverted quotes; directly addresses the US open gap-up cascade seen in w220

PREFIRE_EARLY + PREFIRE_MAIN staged renewal prevents dark gaps on near-expiry intents — book stayed 12/12 through w221–w224 with no dark gaps

canFill() new-intent detection fires LP-Maker when fresh swap demand appears — correct for a liquidity-provider mission

60s poll cadence is reasonable for a quote-refresh mission; sub-second polling not needed since fills happen on-chain asynchronously

Fallback at 86min prevents indefinite sleep

No post-fill reprice trigger: after Arb-Hunter/Vulture fills one side of a pair, the opposite quote is now at elevated adverse-selection risk — watcher doesn't

canFill() wakes LP-Maker on every new swap intent including Arb-Hunter's optimally-priced ones — LLM then burns $0.16/wake to decide (often correctly) not to fi

ETH/BTC bid guards at -36/-37bps may be too wide: if Arb-Hunter can act within 30s of a 20bps move, the BID_GUARD at -36bps fires *after* the fill already happe

ETH/BTC spreads insufficient to cover Arb-Hunter's information edge

Arb-Hunter accounts for 21/37 recent deals (57%) and -$9.7 PnL deterioration this cycle. BID_GUARDS at -36/-37bps and ASK_GUARDS at +15/+18bps are within Arb-Hunter's observable CEX-oracle delta on fast markets. Realized PnL trajectory (-$16.8 → -$26.5) confirms spreads are losing the information ra

Widen ETH/BTC crypto spreads to 50-70bps half-spread (bid -50bps, ask +50bps) as baseline; the stock spreads (+21-24bps ask) are likely adequate for Stacker flow but should also widen to 35-40bps given gap-up risk at US open.

Token burn $94.26/5h (59.3% of pool) is unsustainable

204/255 wakes are repeat wakes, many likely triggered by canFill() firing on Arb-Hunter new intents, then burning $0.16/wake to audit and decline. At this rate the token pool drains in ~8h. equityVsStart +$49 masks the burn since ETH/BTC inventory appreciated.

In canFill(), filter known-adverse-selector addresses (Arb-Hunter's wallet) from triggering new-intent wakes — LP-Maker should not burn LLM tokens to re-audit Arb-Hunter's optimally-priced intents it will structurally decline. Alternatively, reduce repeat wake frequency by tightening only the guard

No post-fill reprice in wake script

After an adversarial fill (Arb-Hunter/Vulture), the remaining side of the pair is at heightened risk for the same oracle move. The watcher doesn't fire a reprice wake on fill events — it waits for the next guard crossing or PREFIRE.

Monitor settled deals feed in runWatchLoop and fireWake('POST_FILL_REPRICE') immediately after any fill appears against LP-Maker's address — enables same-move second-leg protection.

Mimic-Ljuba

w108–w112: 'No BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge available'; w109 Intent #1827 at −15pp, w105 Intent #1827 at −65pp, w112 board showing −10 to −65pp. Board consistently ITM for poster, leaving zero taker edge for Mimic.

Stock market opens 13:30 UTC (if watcher started before 13:30)

3 of 4 most-recent settled deals; posts BinaryBets Mimic can take

1 of 4 most-recent settled deals; also trades BinaryBets

takes near-decided binaries — could overlap on same taker opportunities, competing not complementary

BinaryBet new-intent trigger is exact fit for a taker-copy mission — fires as soon as a counterparty posts

Stock-market-open trigger at 13:30 UTC covers equity-linked bets without constant polling

60s poll interval is patient and appropriate — not sub-minute burn

Baseline pattern prevents stale-intent false fires on startup

Stock-market-open trigger is gated on baslineWasBeforeMarket: if the watcher restarts after 13:30 UTC (e.g., the market-open wake fires and the watcher relaunch

Stock-market-open trigger blind after mid-session restart

baslineWasBeforeMarket uses Date.now() at watcher startup. If the watcher relaunches after 13:30 UTC (after consuming the market-open wake), it sets baselineTime post-market and the condition never fires again that day — only the 2h fallback covers it.

On watcher relaunch, either persist baselineTime across restarts (write to a temp file) or unconditionally fire at 13:30 UTC if currently in market hours on startup, not just when crossing the boundary.

Momentum-Nikita

W47 explicitly: 'No resting sellers to lift — two were cancelled before I could.' LP-Maker (152 deals, the natural filler) faces adverse selection on momentum-confirmed USDC→ETH flows; arb-hunter-tom (42 deals, fast CEX feed) likely front-runs and clears resting ETH supply the instant momentum clear

ownIntentResolved polling every 60s — catches #2653 fill OR TTL expiry promptly

Momentum gap ≥2pp from w49 baseline (market-hours-aware: full universe 13:30-20:00 UTC, crypto-only outside)

8h fallback ~22:36 UTC Jun 15 (emergency only; intent resolution trigger makes this a backstop)

Primary USDC↔ETH swap liquidity (152 deals), but bleeding $94.23/5h from adverse selection — momentum-nikita's signal-backed buys are exactl

Taker-only on fast CEX feed; competes for the same resting ETH supply momentum-nikita wants to lift — more adversary than counterparty

Fades dislocations — would sell ETH stretched above trailing average; could be a natural maker for #2653 if ETH is now 'stretched', but 7 li

Posts delivered swaps for DCA; could post ETH→USDC if overweight ETH, but currently blocked by lot-size gate on sMSFT — unclear if ETH rebal

ownIntentResolved polling every 60s — won't miss TTL expiry or fill; 8h fallback is truly just a backstop, not load-bearing

Market-hours-aware universe (crypto-only outside 13:30-20:00 UTC) prevents phantom divergence from stale equity prices — precise and correct

Gap trigger fires on further leadership shift, enabling rotation wake if a new asset overtakes ETH by 2pp even while #2653 rests

Baseline captured dynamically at w49 start — measures fresh divergence from this wake's oracle, not a stale anchor

No taker-scan at wake entry before defaulting to bid: when momentum fires and resting sellers exist, agent should attempt to lift first, then fall back to posti

No price-drift check in the poll loop: if ETH rallies another $25+ while #2653 rests, the gap trigger won't fire (gap is vs w49 baseline + ETH is still leader),

No taker-first scan when resting supply exists

W47: agent posted a bid rather than lifting two resting ETH sellers that then cancelled. On a dual-confirmed momentum signal, the agent should scan for takers first and only post a bid if book is empty.

At wake entry after dual-confirm, run a readBook scan and attempt to take the best resting ETH offer (if within 0.5% of oracle) before posting a maker bid. This turns the strongest-signal wakes into fills rather than bids.

No mid-TTL price-drift check in watcher poll loop

#2536 became taker-unfavorable ($28 move) before agent noticed at next wake (w48). The watcher polls every 60s but only checks gap vs baseline — doesn't check whether its own resting bid is still taker-favorable.

In the runWatchLoop callback, after fetching prices, compute `currentETH / impliedBidRate - 1`; if >+1%, fireWake('bid taker-unfavorable, ETH +X% since post') so the agent can cancel and reprice promptly rather than waiting for next wake or TTL.

Option-Taker-Matheus

new audited Option intent (template 0xb3d66f4b...) OR 6h fallback

option-writer-matheus: 0 open intents (only audited-Options publisher on the fleet). Last audited Option (0xb3d66f4b…) on book was w32/Jun14 13:49Z. sNVDA call on book carries 0x57F8…B0ff — wrong hash, rightly invisible. 8 consecutive wakes returning 'Zero audited Option intents found'.

new intent appears with templateHash === 0xb3d66f4b… AND kind === 'Option'

Sole audited-Options publisher on fleet; 26 lifetime deals but currently 0 open intents — primary drought cause

Strict AUDITED_OPTION_HASH filter prevents unsafe settlement — correctly excludes the 0x57F8…B0ff custom intent

6h fallback handles supply droughts without burning tokens on empty loops

Baseline seen-set prevents re-firing on stale intents already evaluated and rejected

Rejected-but-not-expired intents are frozen in seen set: if an option's edge improves (deeper ITM, approaching expiry) after being rejected at w34/w35, agent wo

Custom sNVDA option (0x57F8…B0ff) unevaluable — hash whitelist limits option-taker's reach

An sNVDA call (strike $210.13, 0.17 USDC premium, 1362 min remaining) sits on book from a non-writer source, but option-taker's single-hash filter correctly excludes it. This is right behavior, but the fleet loses access to option supply from any template beyond one audited hash — deepening drought

Audit and whitelist additional Option template hashes in the SDK (or add a Set<string> AUDITED_OPTION_HASHES to option-taker's wake script) so it can safely evaluate Options from multiple verified templates, broadening supply exposure without sacrificing settlement safety.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Blockers are supply gap (sNVDA) and missing buyer signal (options), not pricing or data. Repricing either leg is futile

market open + post-rebalance window at 14:35 UTC (or 4h fallback)

ENGINE 1 (options, 30% sleeve): option-taker-matheus in 8-wake drought, 0 audited option 0xb3d66f4b on book since Jun14 13:49Z — no buyer exists. ENGINE 2 (stock, 70% sleeve): time-gated on 14:35Z window; sMSFT is the target after sNVDA removed from ranking; LP-Maker is the only reliable fill counte

4h fallback at ~15:26 UTC (nextFallbackMin=154 from snapshot ~12:52 UTC)

Primary counterparty for sMSFT swap — 8/8 recent settled deals; but absorbing adverse selection at $94.23/5h burn, may widen spread

Trades sMSFT/sAAPL/sNVDA but as a taker-first accumulator posting bids at oracle+0.5% — unlikely to post sells option-writer needs

Also targets sMSFT but lot-size gated (balance 0.03 < floor 0.030888) — currently blocked from posting

Natural ENGINE 1 buyer for ETH/BTC options, but in 8-wake drought — 0 audited option on book since Jun14 13:49Z

Targets the specific post-market-open rebalance window (14:35 UTC) that is mission-critical for the stock sleeve — not a generic cadence

Epoch constants are correct: MARKET_OPEN_UTC=1781540400 (13:30 UTC) and REBALANCE_WINDOW_START=1781544900 (14:35 UTC) match stated intent

60s poll is appropriate for a time-gated condition — fires within 1 min of threshold without sub-minute spam

4h fallback ensures recovery if process restarts near the window; zero-LLM, fully deterministic

Single-use label ('wake 37: post-market-open rebalance') — once fired, if sMSFT swap is partial or unfilled, the next wake script needs to be reasoned from scra

No ENGINE 1 trigger path: the options sleeve (30% allocation) has 0 mechanism to wake when option-taker resurfaces; it only wakes when the stock sleeve's time-g

ENGINE 1 (options sleeve) structurally idle — 11+ wakes, 0 demand, no fallback posture

The 30% option-writing sleeve posted at progressively tighter premiums (3%→1.5%) across 11+ wakes with zero fills; option-taker-matheus is in 8-wake drought. The sleeve is allocated 30% of mission capital but generating 0 activity with no defined recovery posture.

After N consecutive ENGINE 1 zero-fill wakes (e.g. 5), temporarily reallocate the sleeve's budget to ENGINE 2 stock buys; add a wake trigger that resumes ENGINE 1 when option-taker posts an audited option on-book.

Single-use wake scripts create continuity risk on failed or partial fills

Each wake script is purpose-built for one specific wake. If the 14:35Z sMSFT attempt is partial or unfilled (LP-Maker widens spread due to bleeding), the follow-on logic must be reconstructed from scratch in the next wake rather than already being encoded.

Pre-author the post-w37 wake script during w37 itself, covering all three outcome branches (filled, partial, unfilled) before ending the wake.

Options market bilateral drought — no supply, no demand

Option-writer has 0 open intents (ENGINE 1 paused after 11+ zero-fill wakes); option-taker is in 8-wake drought (0 audited option 0xb3d66f4b on book since Jun14 13:49Z). Neither side is active. This is a fleet-level structural freeze, not either agent's fault in isolation.

Diagnose option-taker drought: is the audited hash 0xb3d66f4b stale/unreachable? Is option-writer's premium above option-taker's strike comfort? Seed option-taker with a fresh book scan to confirm whether zero-demand is decode-failure vs genuine no-bid.

Polymarket-Ljuba

open_intents=2 (#1827 sMSFT<$420 at 79.94%, #1916 sNVDA>$195 at 77.93%) resting since w56/w57 with 0 fills; no takers have matched. Deal #190 is simply waiting for expiry — on-mission, not blocked.

DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS: time-based, fires at ~10:32Z Jun16 (5 min before 10:37Z expiry)

ownIntentResolved on #1827 or #1916 (fill or expiry)

new binaryBet or option intent appearing on book (scanned every 60s)

24h absolute fallback (~10:37Z Jun16, coincides with deal expiry)

Primary binary taker (42 deals); could take the other side of #1827/#1916 if oracle lags price into edge territory

Takes near-decided binaries — high implied ITM makers (#1827/#1916) are candidates, but pidAlive=false as of this cycle

Prior custom-live deal; mirrors BinaryBets — could independently post/take matching binaries

Mission is crypto-down / tech-equities-up; would not take NO on sNVDA>$195 (requires bearish NVDA view) or YES on sMSFT>$420

Time-based DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS fires 5 min before expiry — precise settle window, no guesswork

ownIntentResolved on both maker binaries (#1827, #1916) ensures fills/expirations are acted on promptly

New binaryBet/option scan every 60s directly serves the core mission (find mispriced takeable intents)

Zero-LLM, PID written on start, 24h fallback — structurally clean

60s poll cadence is appropriate: patient agent, not sub-minute noise

New-binary/option scan has no size or kind pre-filter — in a busier book it would fire on tiny or irrelevant intents before the agent can assess them; harmless

No monitoring of deal #190 settlement status (e.g., if it settles early or is disputed); agent only watches the time trigger

Maker binaries #1827/#1916 unfilled with only 1 reliable counterparty

sMSFT<$420 at 79.94% and sNVDA>$195 at 77.93% have rested since w56/w57 with no takers. Only arb-hunter-tom is a realistic match; vulture-andrew (the other likely binary taker) is pidAlive=false this cycle.

Consider posting at slightly lower implied probability (e.g., 75-76%) to widen the spread and attract arb-hunter or mimic-ljuba; or accept the thin-book reality and wait — both are directionally sound ITM positions.

Vulture-Andrew pidAlive=false reduces binary taker depth fleet-wide

Vulture is the second most active binary taker (46 deals) and its repeated PID death (armed=true, pidAlive=false) leaves ljuba's maker binaries with fewer counterparties across multiple cycles.

Diagnose and fix vulture-andrew's PID death — recovering it restores binary market depth for ljuba and others.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC DCA #2663 posted at 14:50Z; w53 explicitly notes 'No favorable takes on book' — now waiting for LP-Maker or another counterparty to take the swap; sMSFT gate no longer blocking

ownIntentResolved: #2663 (fill or expiry ~15:50Z)

Primary swap market maker (152 deals), most likely taker for BTC DCA if within LP spread

42 deals, takes swap arb opportunistically — may cross if BTC drift creates a spread

Zero-LLM: ownIntentResolved fires on actual fill/expiry, not a blind timer

2h fallback ensures wake even if the resolution event is missed

60s poll is appropriate for a ~60-min expiry window on intent #2663

Wake label 'sAAPL DCA next' shows agent is mid-plan and knows the next target without a cold re-derive

If #2663 fills before stock-oracle-open (13:30Z tomorrow), the 2h fallback fires generically — potentially re-running the 'stocks closed / no USDC' no-op wakes

Watcher has no awareness of LP-Maker's lot-floor for the next stock trim — the same balance-vs-floor friction can recur silently on sAAPL

Post-fill fallback may land outside stock-oracle window again

If BTC DCA #2663 fills before ~11:30Z tomorrow, the +2h fallback puts the sAAPL DCA wake in pre-market, recreating the w47-w50 no-op sequence that cost 4 wakes and $0.65 each.

In the next wake script (post-BTC fill), set fallbackMs to align with the next 13:30Z stock-oracle-open rather than wall-clock +2h.

LP-Maker lot floor is a recurring structural friction for small stock trims

sMSFT trim was only fillable by 0xBd6a…9863 (non-LP), not LP-Maker (floor 0.030888 > balance 0.03). If sAAPL or sMSFT trim sizes fall below LP-Maker's per-instrument floor again, the agent will hit the same gate. The -0.75% price level appears to be the threshold that attracts non-LP liquidity.

CLAUDE.md should note the LP-Maker floor per instrument and the observed price level (-0.75%) that clears the non-LP market; or the DCA plan should size trims to stay ≥ LP-Maker floor.

Stacker-Massimo

bid 2703 fill/expiry | new LP-sized sNVDA sell ≥3 USDC | sNVDA oracle drift >0.5% | 45-min fallback

sMSFT has no taker path while misses=0 is maintained by frequent sNVDA fills. sNVDA accumulation itself is healthy — LP-Maker is the reliable counterparty filling bids in under 15 min. sMSFT 2337 has not been taken since w73; rotation counter never climbs above 0.

sNVDA oracle drifts >0.5% from base $209.71

new LP-sized sNVDA sell (3–12 USDC) appears on book

5 of 8 visible settled deals; filled 2624 and 2661 in under 22 min combined — primary and reliable

2 settled deals; provides sNVDA sell-side opportunistically

1 settled deal, external wallet — availability opaque

Fires on own bid 2662 resolution — correct: next lot depends on this

Fires on sNVDA oracle drift >0.5% — matches bid-refresh threshold exactly

Fires on new LP-sized sNVDA sell (3–12 USDC) — catches the exact take opportunity mid-cycle

45-min fallback is well-sized for a ~2h avg gap agent that also needs oracle freshness

ORACLE_BASE_SNVDA hardcoded at $209.71 — will produce false/missed drift signals if sNVDA moves significantly before bid 2662 resolves (though 45-min fallback m

LP sell filter caps at 12 USDC — a 13–15 USDC sNVDA sell from LP would not trigger a mid-cycle wake (45-min fallback catches it eventually)

Bug 1: sMSFT rotation permanently gated by misses=0 reset on sNVDA fills

The consecutive-misses counter resets to 0 every time ANY sNVDA bid fills (including LP-Maker fills). With LP-Maker filling bids in under 15 min, misses never accumulates, and sMSFT is unreachable. 0 sMSFT deals across the full observation window despite sMSFT 2337 being within ceiling at w73.

Decouple the rotation counter from fill events: increment misses only when a sNVDA *take* opportunity was present and passed; reset on a sNVDA *take* (not a fill of a posted bid). Or add a time-based sMSFT window (e.g. every N wakes regardless of misses).

Bug 2: Stale state.json read in concurrent session caused duplicate intent 2664

w82 fired concurrently with w81b; w82 read pre-w81b state.json and posted lot 2664 as a duplicate, which required a cancel tx (0x34c3e2a071a9…). Agent noted the fix rule in its reasoning but the wake script itself does not enforce a state.json freshness read at startup.

Add an explicit state.json read as the first step of each wake session before any intent-posting decision, and gate on the last-modified timestamp to abort if a concurrent session is active (e.g., check for a lock file or compare state.json mtime to process start time).

Swing-Nikita

No actionable dislocations above 1.5% threshold. sNVDA signal narrowing; intent rides to natural expiry.

intent 2689 resolves or new sNVDA buyer appears (3h fallback)

Zero ETH/BTC/SSV holdings block all crypto sell-fades despite ETH +3.74%, BTC +2.43%, SSV +3.07% above baseline. sNVDA inventory (0.08305 remaining) is actionable and being actively worked via intent 2689.

intent 2689 resolves (filled or expired) via ownIntentResolved

new sNVDA buyer appears on book via newMatches filter (USDC→sNVDA legs)

2h fallback (7200s) covers all other asset classes and market shifts

MISSING: no intra-loop check for crypto buy-dip signals — if BTC/ETH/SSV dips below baseline while intent 2689 is open, the 2h fallback is the only catch

Confirmed taker of sNVDA asks: deals 200 and 202 both settled ↔ Stacker; mission is exactly 'take resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1%

Deep swap liquidity but LP-Maker is the ask side for rebalancers, not a natural sNVDA buyer; could fill in a pinch but not the primary taker

Lot-size blocked (sMSFT balance 0.03 < floor 0.030888); even if sNVDA were its target, the gate has blocked all rebalancer trades since prio

ownIntentResolved fires immediately on fill or expiry of intent 2689 — no stale intent left rotting

newMatches filter (USDC posterGives + sNVDA posterWants) is precise: targets exactly the buyer profile that lets swing-nikita accept-and-settle without repostin

2h fallback covers all other signals (crypto dip, stock market close, new instrument dislocation)

Zero-LLM polling loop, 60s poll cadence — efficient, no burn

No intra-loop price check for crypto buy-dip (ETH/BTC/SSV falling below baseline): if one dips while intent 2689 is open, the 2h fallback is the only trigger —

Watcher is sNVDA-only by construction; if sNVDA goes sub-threshold before 2689 fills, agent could sit idle for up to 2h even if another stock (sAAPL, sMSFT) dis

Crypto sell-fades structurally impossible until a buy-dip replenishes inventory

ETH/BTC/SSV have been above baseline for multiple consecutive cycles (ETH +3.74%, BTC +2.43%, SSV +3.07% at last read) — strong sell signals — but agent holds zero units of each. The agent correctly reports this and doesn't error; however, the situation self-perpetuates: no buy-dip → no inventory →

Mission scoping question, not a bug. If crypto inventory starvation is chronic, consider adding a small forced-accumulation rule in CLAUDE.md: 'if no crypto held and a buy-dip appears on any crypto asset, take a minimum lot even if dislocation is marginal, to seed sell-fade capacity.' Otherwise acce

Wake script blind to non-sNVDA dislocations while intent 2689 is open

Current watcher only fires on intent 2689 resolution, new sNVDA buyers, or 2h fallback. If sAAPL or sMSFT dislocates within that window, the agent sleeps up to 2h before noticing.

Add a lightweight multi-asset price check (oracle vs trailing avg for all watchlisted symbols) inside the runWatchLoop body; fireWake if any asset crosses the sell-strength or buy-dip threshold. This is a single additional belt.tools call per 60s tick.

Vulture-Andrew

SSV -$0.01 inflated 2684 above upper tolerance. sMSFT +$0.33 eroded 2687 below lower tolerance. CMQ correctly caught SSV

25 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781541470; next poll 60s

pidAlive=false every observed cycle (prior summary: PID 198107 dead at w205 10:07; current: same pattern, nextFallbackMin=30). Wake loop executes correctly (wakes_failing=false, wake_error=null) — the issue is the watcher node process dying between wakes, killing the 30s polling loop for up to ~2h p

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest bait expiry (primary driver; avg_gap_min=39 tracks bait ~1h cadence)

new takeable edge ≥1% via scan-edges (only active when polling loop alive)

quote erosion/undercut via check-my-quotes (only active when polling loop alive; blind to stock prices)

MISSING: active polling loop is dead (pidAlive=false) — ~30 min edge/erosion blind spot each cycle until fallback fires

3 swaps settled this cycle — primary swap counterparty

2 swaps settled this cycle — active taker of vulture baits

2 swaps settled this cycle — active swap counterparty

Four-trigger design (edge ≥1%, pre-expiry, erosion, 2h fallback) matches the mission precisely: opportunistic taker + bait poster

Pre-seeded honeypot IDs (779, 836, 869) prevent repeat false-edge fires at zero LLM cost

30s poll interval appropriately fast for a latency-sensitive taker when the loop is alive

Pre-expiry trigger at -5 min ensures baits are refreshed before expiry even in PID-dead cycles (fallback lands at ~30 min, well inside ~60 min TTL)

No self-healing on watcher PID death — when the node process dies, the polling loop stops silently with no alert; only the fallback timer survives

CMQ does not read stock oracle prices — sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA/SSV erosion is invisible to the watcher; documented recurring miss in w218 and w220

Watcher PID death undiagnosed — persists across 8+ cycles, ~30 min polling blind spot each time

pidAlive=false every observed cycle since at least w205 (prior: PID 198107 dead 10:07; current cycle: same). The node process hosting runWatchLoop dies silently; armed+fallback masks it but creates a ~30 min window per cycle where scan-edges and check-my-quotes do not run. Exit code/signal has never

Add process-exit logging to runWatchLoop (capture exit code/signal on PID death) and check dmesg/journalctl on the host for OOM kills. This is a repeat occurrence — it warrants a dedicated debugging session, not another cycle of fallback masking.

CMQ blind to stock oracle prices — stock bait erosion misses watcher detection

check-my-quotes does not fetch stock oracle prices. Documented 'known issue' in w218 (14:15 UTC) and w220 (14:52 UTC). SSV +$0.01 at w220 eroded bait 2644 from ~1.80% to 1.38% (below 1.55% lower tolerance) — missed by CMQ, live for minutes before caught on the next wake. Affects all stock/SSV baits.

Patch check-my-quotes to include stock oracle prices alongside crypto; or add a separate stock-price delta check in the watcher loop that fires fireWake on any move beyond a tolerance threshold.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

PARTIAL · 14/14 agents

arb-hunter: '21/23 visible settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus (91%)'; lp-maker: 'BID_GUARDS fire when oracle crosses bid, but 60s poll interval means Arb-Hunter can see and take a fill within that win

option-taker: '8 consecutive wakes returning Zero audited Option intents found'; option-writer: 'w37 time-gated on epoch 1781544900 (14:35 UTC)'; option-writer rootCause: 'option-taker-matheus in 8-wa

momentum-nikita: 'LP-Maker faces adverse selection on momentum-confirmed USDC→ETH flows; arb-hunter-tom likely front-runs and clears resting ETH supply the instant momentum clears'

swing-nikita rootCause.evidence: 'Zero ETH/BTC/SSV holdings block all crypto sell-fades'; agent correctly working sNVDA intent 2689 (0.08305 remaining)

vulture-andrew: 'PID death UNDIAGNOSED and recurring for 8+ cycles; pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=36'; rootCause: 'pidAlive=false every observed cycle (prior: PID 198107 dead at w205 10:07)'

4/14 agents: wakes FAILING

4 agent(s) are up (container + watcher alive) but EVERY wake fails — they look alive yet execute nothing. A failure shared across the fleet ⇒ a platform/infra regression (claude binary, SDK version, shared gate), not 4 separate agent bugs. Affected: arb-hunter-tom, lp-maker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, vulture-andrew.

[agent-entrypoint] wake failed: launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap) — output above

Inspect the shared failure: claude binary, SDK version, or a shared gate — fix once, fleet-wide.

Synthesis degraded — per-agent rollup

Fleet synthesis call failed; showing a deterministic rollup of 14 agent verdict(s) instead of a cross-agent read. The cross-agent reasons below may be STALE — trust the deterministic infra signal first.

Check observer logs for the claude failure detail (exit code + stdout/stderr head + elapsed).

BTC binary #2454 'structurally untakeable' — 7+ consecutive WAIT cycles cite same pattern

Decode #2454 template, attempt acceptIntent from a test wallet to confirm revert, then either add poster to arb-hunter's SKIP_POSTERS or fix the template contract-side

Decode #2454 template, attempt acceptIntent from a test wallet to confirm revert, then either add poster to arb-hunter's SKIP_POSTERS or fix the template contract-side

Diagnose and fix vulture-andrew's PID death — recovering it restores binary market depth for ljuba and others.

claude exit 1 (model claude-sonnet-4-6, 1371ms, prompt 32005b, stdout 52b, stderr 0b) stdout: You've hit your session limit · resets 5:50pm (UTC) (after 3 tries)