account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary latency take (both bets out of money or no CEX feed). No swap edge clears 10bps bar. All new intents taker-neg

new intent >1871 (binary bet or USDC-payable swap)

Summary: Deal #166 fired at w241 (swap #1837, 16bps, $0.01, ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus) — sole fill since prior summary (HIGH_WATER 1789→1869, 80 new intents). SSV compressed to -13bps at w237 and stayed flat through w243; BTC binary drought extended to 154 wait-wakes with #1848 structurally out of money (taker needs BTC +$1,018, +1.57%). Current state (w243, 18min ago) is c

One surface cleared the take bar since last summary (swap #1837 at w241, 16bps floor, $0.01) — but w242 and w243 are confirmed-no-edge holds. SSV spread is -13bps; BTC binary #1848 needs taker to win if BTC rises +1.57% from current CEX price, structurally underwater. 154 consecutive binary wait-wakes. Market state, not agent failure.

SSV spread closed to -13bps (prior peak +179bps at w235/Deal #163); BTC binary #1848 requires CEX BTC > $64,800 with +$1,018 gap to current price; 154 binary wait-wakes cited w242; Deal #166 sole fill at the 10bps floor ($0.01 net)

Sound and on-mission. Wake logs cite exact edge values (-13bps SSV, +$1,018 BTC gap to strike), specific bet IDs (#1820 not in money, #1827 no CEX feed, #1848 out of money), and CEX vs oracle comparisons per wake. Not chasing; not re-deriving cold. The binary drought reflects market structure, not a logic error.

new intentId > 1869 (binary or USDC-payable swap)

#1848 enters ≤30min expiry window AND CEX BTC > $64,800

Primary swap counterparty — 9 of 11 most recent settled deals; deep inventory, always on book

2 of 11 recent settled deals; posts competitive swaps arb-hunter can take

Posts BinaryBets BELOW (crypto-down thesis); primary source of near-decided binary supply — but #1820 expiring in ~6min and not in money per

anchor #1820 expiring; new posts uncerta

Posts binary bets; waking in ~10min after 255min dormancy — could post new binary opportunities arb-hunter could take if near-decided

None visible. Swap #1837 (16bps, w241) was captured — the only intent above the 10bps take bar in this window. All binary bets structurally out of money for the taker side. mimic-ljuba's imminent wake is the nearest event that could change the binary surface.

Tracks #1848 with specific expiry timestamp (1781554236) and strike ($64,800) — fires precisely when taker edge appears in the 30-min window without waking on o

canTake filter correctly scopes to binary OR USDC-payable swaps (taker gives USDC), ignoring intents the agent cannot fund

HIGH_WATER correctly advanced to 1869 across wakes; 30-min fallback prevents extended dead periods

Zero-LLM; pid-file written for external health monitoring

No CEX spread trigger for SSV: if an existing USDC-payable SSV swap (intentId ≤ 1869) reprices into profitability, arb-hunter won't fire until the 30-min fallba

Add a CEX-price check inside the runWatchLoop poll (every ~5 min): if fetchCexPrices() shows SSV CEX price deviating ≥10bps above oracle AND a USDC-payable SSV intent is open in the book, fireWake. This closes the gap where the +179bps SSV

SSV spread reopening undetectable on existing intents

Watcher fires only on intentId > HIGH_WATER (1869). If a USDC-payable SSV swap posted before w243 reprices into ≥10bps edge (as the +179bps spike at w235 showed can happen suddenly), arb-hunter waits up to 30 min before firing.

Poll fetchCexPrices() inside runWatchLoop every 5 min; if SSV CEX/oracle spread ≥ 10bps AND any USDC-payable SSV intent exists in readOpenIntents, call fireWake immediately.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Intent 1848 expired. BTC now $64,000 makes $64,800 strike 1.25% above — same cushion as the $64,500 bet that filled in 4

intent 1879 resolved | deal-159 near expiry | BTC>$64,960 | ETH>$1,695 | new BinaryBet | 5h fallback

Summary: #1820 (BTC<$65,000) expired unfilled at ~20:09 UTC June 14 — the 9th consecutive expiry at that strike; w54 responded correctly by tightening to $64,800 and posting #1848 (intentTTL ~21:08 UTC June 14, betExpiry June 15 20:09 UTC). Deal #159 (BTC<$64,500) remains live with BTC at $63,793 (~1.11% ITM); watcher (w54) is correctly armed to fire 5min before its

#1820 expired unfilled at ~20:09Z (9th at $65k); w54 correctly tightened to $64,800 and posted #1848. Deal #159 (BTC<$64,500) is ~1.11% in-the-money at $63,793 with a precise 5-min pre-expiry wake armed for June 15 17:54 UTC — no action needed unless BTC rallies >$64,750 or a new BinaryBet appears.

9 consecutive BTC<$65,000 expirations without a taker; only 1 confirmed binary counterparty (Mimic-Ljuba, deal #159); $65k strike was ~1.9% OTM at $63,793, now tightened to $64,800 (~1.5% OTM) with #1848

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly diagnosed the stale $65k strike (9 expirations) and tightened to $64,800. Explicitly tracks the 'exactly one resting anchor' invariant across every wake, including edge cases (w48b: 1786 filled immediately, re-posted 1788 to avoid overlap; w50: 1788 expired, re-posted within the same wake). No churn — each wake resolves a distinct condition.

intent 1848 resolved (filled or expired) — ~21:08 UTC June 14

deal 159 betExpiry -5min — fires at 1781546040 (June 15 17:54 UTC)

new BinaryBet on book (skips KNOWN_OTM_BETS=[1827])

Only confirmed binary taker — filled deal #159 (BTC<$64,500); waking in ~10min per Step-1 focus

armed, nextFallbackMin=10, imminent wake

Takes near-decided binaries when lagged oracle creates edge; #1848 at $64,800 is ~1.5% OTM — probably not near-decided enough yet

Values BinaryBets against Polymarket implied distribution and buys mispriced ones; may evaluate #1848 if Polymarket shows higher BTC-below-$

Takes near-decided binaries and clearly mispriced bets; 45 deals fleet-leading, but #1848 must appear sufficiently mispriced

Structurally unmeasurable for pre-existing bets: newMatches() initializes `seen` on the first loop pass (returns early without firing), so any BinaryBet posted to the book before the watcher started is invisible until the 5h fallback. Intent #1827 is explicitly skipped as evaluated-OTM, which is correct. No missed opportunities verifiable from available data beyond the structural blind spot.

Deal 159 pre-expiry wake uses precise Unix timestamp (1781546040 = expiry minus 300s) — fires exactly when needed, no polling drift

KNOWN_OTM_BETS set ([1827]) avoids re-evaluating already-assessed OTM intents on every loop pass

BTC/ETH adverse guards at +1.5% match the mission's halt-when-crypto-climbs-persistently rule

5h fallback is mission-appropriate cadence for a patient maker; zero-LLM watcher

ownIntentResolved() check ensures immediate re-post when #1848 fills or expires, maintaining the one-anchor invariant

newMatches() blind spot: `seen` is initialized to null and populated on the first loop iteration (early return), so any BinaryBet already on the book when the w

Pre-populate `seen` with a one-shot readOpenIntents call BEFORE entering runWatchLoop (i.e., `seen = new Set((await belt.tools.readOpenIntents.run({limit:60},{})).intents.map(i=>i.intentId))`), then remove the `if (!seen) { seen = ...; retu

newMatches() misses BinaryBets that existed before watcher start

The watcher initializes `seen = null` and populates it on the first loop pass with an early return, making any bet already on the book at watcher-arm time invisible. If a taker-opportunity bet was posted during the ~47min between w53 (19:21) and w54 (20:09), bear-yosher could not have fired on it —

Pre-populate `seen` with a one-shot readOpenIntents call before runWatchLoop starts, eliminating the first-pass blind spot.

#1820 expired unfilled at ~20:09Z (9th at $65k); w54 correctly tightened to $64,800 and posted #1848. Deal #159 (BTC<$64,500) is ~1.11% in-the-money at $63,793 with a precise 5-min pre-expiry wake armed for June 15 17:54 UTC — no action needed unless BTC rallies >$64,750 or a new BinaryBet appears.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 37th consecutive null cycle — no change. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No new provisioning signal detected this cycle: wallet assignment, config file, env var, and watcher script all remain absent. IndexBasket LONG-side market remains entirely offline. index-taker (

This is the 37th identical null cycle. No provisioning signal of any kind appeared — the agent slot exists on the board but has never been given a wallet, config, or watcher script. wakes_failing=false and wake_error=null are misleading: they are null because the process has never run, not because it is healthy. The IndexBasket market segment (both LONG maker and SHORT taker) is fully offline.

0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, pidAlive=false, armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null — across 37 consecutive observation cycles. No wallet address assigned, no config deployed, no watcher script present. This is a provisioning gap, not a crash: the agent was never instantiated.

N/A — agent has never executed. No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: watcher script (wake_script_source=null — none exists)

MISSING: waker process (pidAlive=false, armed=false)

Designed to take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — the exact complement this agent would post

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never run; no intents posted for index-taker to take, and no book visibility to measure missed takes

wake_script_source=null — no script exists at all

No fallback timer, no trigger, no process

Deploy a watcher script with a time-based fallback (e.g. every 30-60 min) that checks for an open LONG IndexBasket intent on-chain and posts one if absent; pair with wallet provisioning.

index-maker never provisioned — 37 null cycles

The agent has no wallet, no config, no watcher script, and has never executed a single wake. This is not a crash or a thin-book situation — it is a deployment gap. The IndexBasket LONG market does not exist as a result.

Assign a wallet address, deploy CLAUDE.md/config, write and arm a watcher script (time-based fallback, ~30-60 min cadence). Coordinate with index-taker provisioning — both sides must be live for any deal to form.

index-taker is also unprovisioned — IndexBasket market bilaterally dead

Even if index-maker were provisioned today and began posting LONG intents, index-taker (its sole natural counterparty) is also in unknown/null state with no confirmed wakes. The market would still freeze.

Provision both index-maker and index-taker together in the same deployment pass to ensure the market can clear on first intent.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 38th consecutive null cycle — identical to prior. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No provisioning signal whatsoever. Index-maker (sole natural counterparty, sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents) remains health=unknown and equally undeployed. Both sides of the IndexBasket market remai

38 consecutive null cycles with zero signal of change. index-taker has never executed a single wake — $0 lifetime tokens, no wake script, no watcher. Its only counterparty (index-maker) is equally undeployed. The IndexBasket market does not exist on-chain.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=0 — agent never provisioned; no process has ever started

N/A — agent has never executed; no reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null); nothing can fire this agent

Sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of

health=unknown, also unprovisioned — 0 w

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never run and index-maker has never posted an IndexBasket intent; no opportunities exist to miss

No wake script exists (null source) — agent cannot be scheduled, triggered, or run in any form

Provision the agent and deploy a wake script before any other analysis is possible; both index-taker and index-maker must be provisioned together since neither has value without the other

Agent never provisioned — 38 null cycles

index-taker has armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, and 0 lifetime tokens. It has never run. Its sole counterparty index-maker is in the same state. The IndexBasket market is entirely absent from the fleet.

Provision both index-maker and index-taker simultaneously. Deploying one without the other leaves the market one-sided and still non-functional.

38 consecutive null cycles with zero signal of change. index-taker has never executed a single wake — $0 lifetime tokens, no wake script, no watcher. Its only counterparty (index-maker) is equally undeployed. The IndexBasket market does not exist on-chain.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

SSV oracle drop $2.32→$2.31 inverted old bid at $2.3121 above oracle. New SSV bid at -20bps (35bps base - 15bps short-in

Summary: Prior run: sNVDA ask dark from w157 (inventory depleted); w158 self-repair attempt pending. This run CONFIRMS no repair: every wake w157–w163 explicitly logs sNVDA ask absent/dark — zero recovery over 6 wakes. w158 additionally self-diagnosed a guard bug during SSV +175bps spike (17 TXs fired). Book degraded further: 11/12 at w157–w160, fell to 10/12 at w162

LP-maker is alive and healthy (armed=true, pidAlive=true, wakes_failing=false, last wake 6min ago). sNVDA self-repair definitively failed — slot dark from w157 through w163, no replenishment event occurred. Book is now 10/12 (two dark slots: sNVDA ask + likely BTC ask). $66.89/5h token burn and -$3.9 realized PnL make this the fleet's dominant cost center; trading is structurally constrained by inventory gaps, not a broken process.

w157–w163 each log '11/12' or '10/12 live (sNVDA ask dark/absent)'; wake-162 script comment 'BTC[63938 bid, no ask]' confirms second gap; Stacker-Massimo (primary sNVDA consumer, 3/37 recent deals) now crashed — demand gone but inventory already zero; no external replenishment mechanism exists

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly self-triages sNVDA skips (inventory check before posting), self-diagnosed a guard pricing bug at w158 during SSV +175bps move, and executes cancel-races on oracle drift. The only gap is that 'solving the right problem' here is constrained by what's possible — no code path exists to auto-replenish sNVDA, so the slot stays dark indefinitely regardless of reasoni

New fillable swap intent from non-self poster (FILLABLE: USDC/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

Stock cluster prefire at 21:14 UTC (hardcoded STOCK_PREFIRE_TS = 1781471640)

8/37 recent deals, dominant swap taker, active on ETH/BTC/SSV legs

8/37 recent deals, untracked external, second-largest fleet counterparty

5/37 recent deals, swap consumer on price-moving assets

4/37 recent deals, multi-asset swap needs align with LP depth

3/37 recent deals, opportunistic taker on stale quotes

3/37 recent deals; was primary sNVDA/sAAPL consumer — exactly the demand that depleted sNVDA inventory

None observable. Agent correctly declined sNVDA fills due to zero inventory (w157 explicit). All other slots are actively managed — 10+ open intents, cancel/repost firing correctly on oracle moves and expirations.

Price guards on all three actively-held assets (ETH/BTC/SSV) — fires when a quote would go stale/unsafe

Stock cluster prefire hardcoded to 21:14 UTC — prevents 9-min lapse gap that burned prior cycle

newMatches() swap intent detector covers full FILLABLE set including sNVDA — will fire if someone posts sNVDA for lp-maker to take

90-min fallback, zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence — correct for a patient market-maker

No sNVDA balance check — watcher cannot detect replenishment; only the 90-min fallback or an external sNVDA swap intent will trigger a wake when inventory arriv

BTC has only LO guard (63938 bid) with no HI guard — consistent with 'no ask' noted in wake-script comment, but means BTC ask-side gap (contributing to 10/12) w

Add an sNVDA (and BTC) balance read inside the loop: if balance > threshold AND the corresponding ask slot is dark, fireWake('sNVDA/BTC inventory replenished — repost ask') — currently the only path to recover these dark slots is the 90-min

sNVDA ask slot permanently dark — no auto-recovery path

sNVDA inventory depleted since w157 (19:30 UTC); no replenishment in 6 wakes spanning ~90 min. Stacker-Massimo (primary consumer) now crashed, so demand pressure is off — but inventory is still zero. Wake script has no balance-check trigger, so recovery only happens on the 90-min fallback or an exte

Add sNVDA replenishment to CLAUDE.md: either a periodic top-up from an external wallet, or a rule to buy sNVDA from the open book when inventory drops below minimum — then pair with a balance-check wake trigger to repost the ask within seconds of replenishment.

Book degraded 11/12 → 10/12 at w162; second dark slot unconfirmed

w162/w163 both report '10/12 book live'. Wake-script comment at w162 reads 'BTC[63938 bid, no ask]', strongly implying BTC ask is the second dark slot. BTC ask loss at w161 ('-BTC ask arb loss') may be the trigger. No explicit confirmation in logs.

Audit w161 BTC cancel reasoning: was BTC ask deliberately cancelled (correct, if oracle moved past guard) or lost to an arb race without repost? If the latter, add BTC HI guard to the watcher so oracle-up BTC moves trigger a repost wake.

Guard bug self-diagnosed at w158 during SSV +175bps spike

w158 log: 'Guard bug: set guard=bid/ask implied prices going fo...' — 17 TXs fired (probable over-cancellation then re-post). The full error is truncated. This is agent-self-detected but unresolved — no follow-up audit wake was logged.

Read the full w158 wake transcript to confirm whether the guard recalculation was applied correctly and whether the 17-TX burst produced any mispriced fills. If the bug persists in CLAUDE.md guard logic, patch the formula before the next high-volatility SSV move.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

No BinaryBet on board to accept; no recent binary flow to mirror. Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on entire visible board (all int

new ≥3pp taker-edge BinaryBet (crypto 24/7, stocks Mon–Fri 13:30–20:00 UTC) or 60-min fallback

Summary: Still healthy: 18 deals, $16.55 PnL. w101 (deal #159, BTC +8pp, intent #1786) was last action; w102–w104 all disciplined holds (best board edge +2pp, below 3pp floor). 257min dormancy (tokens_5h_usd=0) + watcher now at nextFallbackMin=8 (60-8=52min since re-arm) implies watcher process was down ~205min then recently restarted. newMatches() blind-spot from la

Watcher is alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=8), but the fallback fires ~2min after Bear-Yosher's #1820 expires (~6min left at Step-1). Since #1820 was on-board when the watcher re-armed 52min ago, it entered the seenBinaryIds baseline — newMatches() will never fire on it. Mimic cannot take #1820 reactively, and the fallback arrives too late. The newMatches() blind-spot for pre-existing intents is the active structural miss; no other board intent currently meets the ≥3pp floor (best was +2pp at w104).

#1820 expiry ~6min at Step-1 time; watcher re-armed ~52min ago (nextFallbackMin=8 with 60-min fallback); #1820 almost certainly in baseline seenBinaryIds; newMatches() cannot fire on it; fallback fires ~2min post-expiry. Board edge at w104: best +2pp (intent #1848, BTC) — below 3pp floor, so no reac

Sound and disciplined on the 3pp floor — w102–w104 correctly held at +2pp, zero churn. However, it is applying rigorous logic with a blind instrument: the watcher structurally cannot see the most time-sensitive class of opportunity (expiring pre-existing intents), so correct in-wake reasoning doesn't compensate. The '[object Object]' in w100 is a minor serialization bug but signals a logging gap.

NEW BinaryBet intent posted after baseline captured (30s poll, newMatches())

MISSING: no trigger for BinaryBets already on-board at watcher arm time — these enter the baseline and are permanently invisible to reactive waking; only the fa

Primary counterparty (custom live deals in settled_deals_detail); posts BinaryBets mimic copies/takes — anchor #1820 is the active expiring

ok — 18 deals, actively posting; but #18

Secondary counterparty in settled deals; posts BinaryBets mimic can mirror

Also takes near-decided binaries — competes for the same intents rather than providing counterparty flow

ok — 45 deals, active; competes with mim

Bear-Yosher #1820 (expiring anchor, ~6min left at Step-1 time): almost certainly in seenBinaryIds baseline — reactive wake structurally impossible; fallback fires ~2min post-expiry. Whether #1820 met ≥3pp edge is unverifiable from available data, but if it did, this is a confirmed miss. w102–w104 holds (best +2pp) were correct given floor discipline.

Fires on any new BinaryBet, deferring edge check to the agent — correct separation of concerns

30s poll cadence — fast enough to detect new postings within one minute

Hardcoded BINARY_TEMPLATE hash prevents spurious wakes on non-binary intents

newMatches() uses a seen-ID set: every BinaryBet on-board at arm time enters the baseline and is permanently invisible to reactive waking — only the 60-min fall

60-min fallback is too long for time-sensitive binaries — a pre-existing intent with 6–20min left will expire before the fallback fires

205min watcher-down gap (watcher was absent for ~3.4h) suggests no process supervision; a 60-min fallback is useless if the watcher process itself crashes

Reduce fallbackMs from 60min to 10min. Single highest-value change: narrows the miss window for pre-existing intents from 'up to 60min late' to 'up to 10min late', directly addressing the #1820 class of miss without a deeper refactor. For f

newMatches() blind-spot: pre-existing BinaryBets never trigger reactive wake

At watcher arm time, all on-board BinaryBets are captured into seenBinaryIds as baseline. Any of those intents — including expiring anchors like Bear-Yosher #1820 — will never call fireWake(). Only the 60-min fallback or a brand-new posting can wake the agent. For intents with <60min remaining at ar

Reduce fallbackMs to 10min (primary fix). For completeness: on each poll, scan seenBinaryIds entries for intents approaching expiry (<20min) and fire if any are present — this catches time-sensitive pre-existing bets without needing full edge pre-computation in the watcher.

~205min watcher-down gap — process was offline between w104 and ~52min ago

last_wake_min_ago=257, nextFallbackMin=8 with 60-min fallback → watcher re-armed ~52min ago. The intervening 205min had no fallback wakes, implying the watcher process was down (crash, OOM, or deploy). With a 60-min fallback, 3–4 wake opportunities were missed in that window.

Add a process supervisor (systemd unit, PM2, or Docker restart policy) to auto-restart the watcher within 1–2 minutes of failure. Reducing fallbackMs to 10min also limits damage per restart to one missed check window.

[object Object] serialization bug in w100 wake output

w100 log line contains the literal string '[object Object]' — an unserialised JS object passed through string interpolation in the wake output logging path.

Replace string interpolation of result objects with JSON.stringify() in the wake summary output.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Summary: Since w40 (20:01 UTC, 64 min ago), no new wake has fired — confirming the fast SSV/ETH gap has not reached ≥2pp, making this a 9th consecutive hold since w31. Portfolio stable at USDC $43.20 + SSV 22.385 units + BTC = ~$102.81 total. Watcher is alive and armed (pidAlive=true, armed=true) with 8h fallback at ~04:01 UTC Jun 15 and US-market-open re-expansion t

9th consecutive hold confirmed by absence of any wake since w40 (64 min ago) — fast gap never cleared the 2pp threshold. Portfolio unchanged at ~$102.81 (41.9% USDC dry powder). The holdback is structural: crypto field compressed to 0.08–1.73pp all day Jun 14, no momentum leader has separated. Agent is healthy and correctly waiting.

9 consecutive holds since w31; intraday crypto gap range 0.076–1.730pp (w33–w40) never reaching 2pp dual-confirmation threshold; no asset has separated as momentum leader since the SSV pivot at w31

Sound and solving the right problem. The dual-confirmation rule (fast+slow both ≥2pp) is correctly applied; the compressed field is an accurate read. The crypto-only pivot at 20:00 UTC market close (w40) was correct procedure. No churn — agent is rationing wakes appropriately.

Fast 6h SSV/ETH/BTC gap ≥2pp from w40 baseline (primary)

New fair SSV seller ≥$2 notional at ≤oracle+0.5% (secondary opportunity trigger)

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 15 — re-expands universe to full 6 names

8h fallback ~04:01 UTC Jun 15 (nextFallbackMin=420 aligns: 64 min elapsed + 420 remaining ≈ 484 min ≈ 8h from w40)

MISSING: slow-lookback confirmation computed inside the LLM at wake time, not in watcher — watcher fires on fast gap alone; if fast clears but slow doesn't, bur

Primary swap counterparty — 6 of 8 visible deals; has 10 open intents and active liquidity

1 settled deal; rebalancer posts occasional delivered swaps that could cross momentum buys

1 settled deal; likely opportunistic cross, not a reliable standing counterparty

None observable — no gap trigger fired since w40 and no SSV seller events appear in wake logs. SSV seller detection uses newMatches() which may share the stacker-massimo structural blind-spot (intents posted between arm-time and first poll could be missed), so the SSV seller trigger's coverage is unverifiable until that SDK function is audited.

Gap baseline captured dynamically on first poll — no hardcoded literals, baseline drifts correctly with each watcher deployment

≥2 USDC notional guard on SSV seller trigger eliminates micro-lot false alarms (lesson applied from w34)

US market open trigger at 13:30 UTC Jun 15 correctly re-expands to 6-name universe when stocks unfreeze

8h fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient momentum agent; no sub-minute polling

Zero-LLM watcher; fireWake() called only on meaningful threshold crossings

newMatches() for SSV seller detection may share the structural blind-spot flagged for stacker-massimo: intents posted between watcher arm and first poll may not

Slow-lookback confirmation lives in the LLM at wake time, not in the watcher — the watcher fires on fast gap alone, meaning a fast-only gap crossing burns a wak

Audit shared SDK newMatches() to confirm it captures intents from arm-time forward (not just since last loop tick) — if the stacker-massimo blind-spot is confirmed fleet-wide, the SSV seller trigger is silently missing sellers and a core fi

newMatches() arm-time blind-spot may silence SSV seller trigger

momentum-nikita's w40 watcher uses newMatches() to detect new fair-value SSV sellers. If newMatches() shares the structural gap flagged on stacker-massimo (intents posted between watcher arm and first poll loop are invisible), any SSV seller posting in that window goes undetected. The SSV seller tri

Audit sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js newMatches() to verify it indexes from watcher arm-time. If the blind-spot exists, fix at the SDK level — it affects every agent using newMatches() for opportunity detection (stacker-massimo, momentum-nikita, and potentially others).

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: Still at 5 lifetime deals (all vs 0x57F8…B0ff / option-writer). W34 correctly rejected #1849 (premium 5%, expiry 1.47h — both below the dual bar established in w32: ≤1-2% premium AND ≥4h expiry). The ETH call ($1,680.32, 0.5 USDC, 8min left at Step-1 snapshot) has NOT triggered a w35 in 131min — meaning it was seeded into seenIntentIds on the first watcher p

Agent is alive and correctly resting. The option-writer's ETH call ($1,680.32, 8min left, 0.5 USDC premium) is both watcher-invisible (seeded as 'already seen' on first poll after w34) and policy-barred (≥4h expiry criterion would reject it at ~0min). No missed opportunity — this is the filter working as designed.

All 5 lifetime deals vs 0x57F8…B0ff (option-writer). Option-writer's current live ETH call has 8min expiry — explicitly below the ≥4h bar set in w32. No new audited ETH/BTC options have appeared since w34 to trigger a fireWake; #1849 (last seen) failed both premium and expiry thresholds.

Sound and on-mission. W34 applied the dual criterion (premium ≤1-2% AND expiry ≥4h) correctly to #1849. The watcher's seenIntentIds seed prevents re-waking on already-evaluated rejects — intentional design. The agent is not churn-looping; 43 wakes over a long window with avg_gap 243min reflects appropriate patience for a selective taker.

New audited ETH/BTC option intent (template hash 0xb3d66f4b…) not in seenIntentIds since last poll

MISSING: re-evaluation trigger if a previously-seeded option moves deep ITM before expiry — seenIntentIds seed permanently blinds the watcher to options already

Sole counterparty (all 5 deals 0x57F8…B0ff); posts audited ETH/BTC options with matching template hash — but current live call has 8min left

active, posting; but current ETH call is

Also evaluates Options; could post audited ETH/BTC options option-taker could take, but no evidence of it doing so

The ETH call ($1,680.32, 0.5 USDC, 8min left) is technically live but: (a) invisible — seeded into seenIntentIds on first poll after w34, never triggered fireWake; (b) policy-barred — ≥4h expiry criterion would reject it at ~0min remaining at wake. Whether a near-expiry deep-ITM call should override the expiry bar is an agent-level policy question, not a miss given current CLAUDE.md rules.

Filters strictly on template hash + ETH/BTC underlying — no false wakes on unaudited or non-target options

60s poll cadence is appropriate for a selective taker; not sub-minute busy-polling

6h fallback ensures recovery even if no new options appear

seenIntentIds seed correctly prevents re-waking on already-evaluated rejects from the current wake

seenIntentIds seed on first poll permanently blinds the watcher to options that were on book at watcher-start — an option posted between agent-wake and watcher-

No expiry-proximity filter in the watcher: it would fireWake on a new 5-min-left option that the agent will immediately reject — a minor but wasteful wake

On seenIntentIds init, only seed options that were evaluated (and rejected/passed) in the most recent wake — not ALL current book options. Options that appeared post-wake but pre-seed should be treated as new. This closes the blind spot whe

seenIntentIds seed blinds watcher to options present at watcher-start

After each wake, runWatchLoop initialises seenIntentIds from the full current book on first poll — silently absorbing any option posted between wake-evaluation and watcher-arm. The ETH call with 8min left was almost certainly absorbed this way after w34, which is why no w35 fired in 131min despite t

Seed seenIntentIds from the set of intentIds explicitly evaluated (or explicitly seen) during the preceding wake, passed in as an argument — not from the live book poll. This way only genuinely-already-evaluated intents are suppressed.

No expiry pre-filter in watcher — near-expiry options cause wasteful wakes

A new option with <30min expiry would trigger fireWake and a full agent wake, only to be immediately rejected on the ≥4h criterion. Minor cost ($0.42/wake) but avoidable.

In the runWatchLoop filter, skip options where terms.expiry - Date.now() < 4h before pushing to newOptions — mirror the agent's own bar so the watcher doesn't fire on guaranteed-reject intents.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

One option per wake; already posted in wake 9. Let it run. Ranking change (sNVDA return to Pyth data) requires portfolio

ETH call (intent 1878) resolves (accepted/expired), or 85 min fallback to settle

Summary: Prior run: agent adapted cleanly — expired equity bids triggered a watcher fire that led to w6/w7 accepts (deals 160, 161, 165) rather than blind re-posts. At w8 (194 min ago) accepted swap 1841 (deal 165, +0.05 sAAPL) and opened the option-writing sleeve: ETH call #1849 (10 USDC collateral, 0.5 USDC premium, strike 1680.32 vs oracle 1663.69 = 1% OTM, 1.5h T

ETH call #1849 (strike 1680.32, 1% OTM at posting) should have expired ~104 min ago, but ownIntentResolved failed to trigger a wake — the fallback in ~59 min will fire instead. On that wake, the contrarian engine will likely reassess the option sleeve (re-write or skip) and continue sAAPL/sNVDA worst-2 accumulation. Realized PnL -$11.37 reflects unrealised equity positions, not a systematic miss; the root issue here is a detection gap in core SDK, not the agent's strategy.

Intent 1849 posted w8 with 1.5h TTL; expected on-chain expiry at w8+90min; last_wake_min_ago=194, no wake since; ownIntentResolved polls every 60s and claims to handle expired state but did not fire; nextFallbackMin=59 is now the only scheduled trigger

Sound and on-mission through w8. The agent correctly diagnosed repeated -0.5% oracle equity bids (w3–w5) as a structural sell-side absence rather than a pricing error — it switched to accepting resting asks (w6/w7) rather than re-pricing further, which was the right call. The option-writing sleeve activation at w8 (30% allocation discipline) is on-mission. No churn detected; each wake advanced sta

ownIntentResolved: intent 1849 resolved (accepted/expired/cancelled) — 60s poll [NOT FIRING despite expected expiry]

110-min fallback: nextFallbackMin=59 — will force wake ~59 min from now

MISSING: no trigger on resting sAAPL/sNVDA sell-side appearing — agent proved at w6/w7 it will accept these, but watcher is blind to new ask flow between option

Primary swap counterparty — 4 of 7 recent deals; fills equity swap legs enabling the 70% stock sleeve

Targets cheap/near-decided in-the-money ETH options; #1849 at 1% OTM is borderline — unattractive unless ETH rallied toward 1680 during the

Values options against Polymarket implied distributions — could see #1849 as mispriced if ETH moved toward strike, but 4 deals suggests limi

Takes mispriced swaps; could opportunistically take equity swaps if option-writer prices drift, but not an option buyer

unmeasurable: watcher is blind to book between option cycles — no scan for resting sAAPL/sNVDA asks from stacker-massimo (now crashed) or rebalancer-lior; agent demonstrated at w6/w7 it will take these when detected, but current script only watches own intent #1849

Watches the specific live option intent (#1849) rather than generic book state — correct maker-waits-on-own-resolution pattern

110-min fallback exceeds the 1.5h option TTL by 20 min, ensuring a wake even if resolution detection fails (which it did)

Zero-LLM, lean loop with 60s cadence — appropriate for a time-bounded option lifecycle

ownIntentResolved silently failed to detect expiry: option expired ~104 min ago, watcher kept polling without firing, fallback is now the only path to next acti

No secondary trigger for resting equity asks: agent showed strong accept behavior at w6/w7 but watcher won't surface that opportunity until the fallback fires

Audit ownIntentResolved in the SDK to confirm it reads on-chain expiry status (not just accepted/cancelled transitions) — the silent miss here delayed the next option-sleeve decision by ~104 min and counting; it will delay it a further 59 m

ownIntentResolved does not reliably detect on-chain intent expiry

Intent 1849 had a 1.5h TTL posted at w8 (194 min ago); expected expiry ~90 min after posting (~104 min ago). ownIntentResolved polls every 60s and is documented to handle 'filled, expired, or cancelled' states, yet no fireWake was triggered. The agent is stuck waiting on a 110-min fallback instead o

Audit ownIntentResolved in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js: verify the expired state check reads the correct on-chain field (e.g., block timestamp vs intent expiry vs contract state enum). Add an integration test covering an already-expired intent being passed on startup.

Watcher blind to resting equity asks between option cycles

Current wake script is single-purpose: watch intent 1849. When that resolves and a new option is posted, the next script will watch that intent. Resting sAAPL/sNVDA sells appearing in the book (e.g., from rebalancer-lior) won't trigger a wake — the agent will only discover them on the next fallback

Add a secondary poll in the wake loop: scan for resting sAAPL/sNVDA asks within 1% of oracle price and fireWake if one appears alongside the option-intent resolution check.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

sMSFT<$420 intent #0x0723 resolves, new intent appears (≥8pp bet, ≥3% swap), or 24h fallback

Summary: Continuity: sAAPL exit fully resolved at w56 (19:14 UTC); 7 USDC deployed into sMSFT <$420 binary #0x0723 at 79.94% implied (June 19 expiry). Now resting 65 min post-w56, nextFallbackMin dropped 1386→1332 (consistent with elapsed time). Nothing traded since. The mission-critical gap is the same structural one — the wake script has NO Polymarket-odds-shift tr

Alive and correctly armed (nextFallbackMin=1332, pidAlive=true); sole open intent is sMSFT <$420 binary #0x0723 posted 65 min ago at 79.94% implied. The agent cannot self-correct if Polymarket has since repriced sMSFT — the wake script carries no Polymarket poll trigger, making the 7 USDC position effectively unmonitored for odds drift until the 24h fallback fires or the binary settles.

4 settled deals across 55 wakes (7.3% conversion); sMSFT binary #0x0723 is on-book with no confirmed taker; the binary market for this instrument is thin — LP-Maker does swaps, not binary taker-side; the natural takers (vulture-andrew, arb-hunter-tom) either haven't crossed or found no edge vs their

Sound — the agent correctly staged its exit (w55 at −1% oracle, w56 confirmed fill → immediate capital redeployment into sMSFT binary). The logic is on-mission. The unsound element is not the per-wake reasoning but the wake-trigger architecture: the agent prices bets against Polymarket but receives no signal when Polymarket moves. It can reason well at wake time and still hold a stale position for

MISSING: Polymarket sMSFT implied-probability shift ≥5pp — the agent's core edge signal has no trigger path

Swap counterparty only; won't take the binary side of #0x0723

Copy-trader that mirrors BinaryBets; waking in ~10 min per Step-1 — could evaluate #0x0723 and take the other side if it fits Ljuba's direct

Takes near-decided binaries vs CEX feed; may have own MSFT pricing and could take if 79.94% is mispriced vs its oracle

Picks off clearly-mispriced intents; will take #0x0723 only if 79.94% is exploitable vs its reference — 45 deals shows it's active

Bullish on tech equities — selling a 'MSFT <$420' binary (i.e., taking the ≥$420 side) aligns with its conviction; anchor #1820 expiring imm

Bear-Yosher's anchor binary #1820 (6 min remaining at Step-1) and Option-Writer's ETH call (8 min remaining) both represent potentially-decidable intents. The agent's 'any new intent' trigger should have fired when these were posted, but w56 was 65 min ago — either these were posted after w56 and haven't yet triggered a new wake (30s poll lag possible but unlikely over 65 min), or they were evalua

Fires on #0x0723 resolution — correct, avoids holding past settlement

Fires on any new book intent — catches fresh pricing opportunities

24h fallback present; zero-LLM poll at 30s cadence is lightweight

No Polymarket odds-shift trigger: if sMSFT <$420 moves ≥5pp on Polymarket the agent is blind for up to 24h — this is its primary edge signal and it has no path

'Any new intent' is too broad: LP-Maker's 10 open intents plus every new posting drives the 64% repeat-wake rate (35/55); most evals return 'no edge' and burn $

Add a Polymarket sMSFT implied-probability poll inside the watch loop (poll-polymarket or equivalent SDK call); if |current_implied − 0.7994| ≥ 0.05, fireWake('sMSFT Polymarket drift: {current}% vs entry 79.94%'). This is the single highest

Wake script has no Polymarket odds-monitoring path for held binary position

The agent's edge is Polymarket pricing. After entering sMSFT <$420 at 79.94%, it has no trigger for Polymarket drift. A 10pp move (e.g., 79.94%→69% on macro news) would go unseen for up to ~22h (nextFallbackMin=1332). The position size is small (7 USDC) but the design flaw scales with any future lar

Add poll-polymarket call inside runWatchLoop for sMSFT; fireWake on ≥5pp drift from entry implied.

Overly broad 'any new intent' trigger inflates repeat wakes

35/55 wakes (64%) are repeats at $0.61/wake = ~$21 potential wasted on non-actionable evals. LP-Maker alone has 10 open intents that each trigger a poll cycle.

Filter wake trigger to intents matching polymarket-ljuba's instrument whitelist (BinaryBets ≥8pp edge potential, Options) rather than any networkOpenIntent.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: Still correctly armed and silent since w47 (06-14T13:46Z, now 439 min ago). nextFallbackMin=2485 (was 2539, Δ=54 — clocks confirm ~54 more minutes elapsed since prior summary, no new wake). sMSFT approved in w46; plan locked: trim sMSFT (+1.63pp) → DCA BTC (-1.61pp) at Monday 06-16T13:30Z market open. No missed opportunities: US markets were closed the entir

Correctly dormant 439 min since w47. nextFallbackMin=2485 (prior 2539, Δ=54 min elapsed — consistent) confirms watcher ticking to Monday 06-16T13:30Z; fallback fires 14:30Z. Zero LP-Maker or Vulture-Andrew stock asks were actionable in the 439-min window: US equity markets closed all weekend, oracle dark, and rebalancer needs to SELL sMSFT (not buy), so even if stock asks existed they would not serve this trim-then-DCA plan.

US equity markets closed Sat–Sun; sMSFT oracle dark until 06-16T13:30Z. Capital plan is sequenced (trim sMSFT first → release USDC → DCA BTC), so BTC leg also waits. This is correct — no fix needed.

Sound and on-mission. w47 correctly diagnosed the only blocker (stock oracle offline weekends); w46 pre-approved sMSFT so Monday wake goes straight to execution. No churn — agent stopped re-posting BTC after #1294 filled in w45, recognized the stock-leg bottleneck, and parked cleanly. The 1.61pp BTC gap is a routine DCA slice, not an emergency. The watcher encodes the full plan in its label, makin

Date.now() >= 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z, polled every 5 min (time-trigger; book-blind by design — correct, oracle gating is the real constraint not counterparty pres

Fallback: 2026-06-16T14:30:00Z via Math.max(..., 5*60_000) — edge-case hardened

Primary swap liquidity hub (124 deals, 10 open intents); most likely counterparty for both the sMSFT buy-side and the BTC ask on Monday open

Posts sharp swap intents (45 deals); may offer BTC at a competitive rate; less likely to absorb sMSFT

Appeared in settled_deals_detail (past counterparty); may hold BTC exposure to rotate — opportunistic fit

None. Rebalancer's plan requires SELLING sMSFT, not buying — so LP-Maker/Vulture-Andrew stock ASKs (offers to sell stock) are irrelevant to this plan direction. No live stock oracle during Sat–Sun means the trim leg can't be priced regardless. BTC leg is sequenced behind the trim; no BTC asks in this window were actionable without the sMSFT proceeds. Watcher is appropriately blind to the book here

Pure time-trigger (Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS) — correct for this mission; oracle availability, not counterparty presence, is the real gate

Zero-LLM watcher; 5-min poll cadence appropriate for a known UTC timestamp target

Math.max(..., 5*60_000) prevents zero/negative FALLBACK_MS edge case on Monday morning itself

Label encodes the full trade plan ('trim sMSFT +1.63pp, DCA BTC -1.61pp') making Monday triage trivial without re-reading CLAUDE.md

No intra-day retry arm: if Monday's sMSFT trim intent expires unfilled, next wake is a cold LLM re-plan — no pre-armed follow-up cadence

After Monday's wake posts the sMSFT trim intent, arm a follow-up watcher at +1h with the intent ID to check fill status and repost at wider premium if expired — avoids a full LLM cold-start for what is a routine retry.

No intra-day retry cadence after Monday market-open execution

If sMSFT trim intent expires unfilled Monday (thin buyer side, wrong premium), the agent falls back to a cold LLM re-plan wake rather than a pre-armed retry. Given prior BTC DCA required 4+ premium escalations (#1156–#1294), stock intents may face similar friction.

In Monday's wake, after posting trim intent, arm a watcher on that intent ID at +1h: check fill → repost at oracle+0.5% premium step if expired. Mirror the BTC escalation pattern already proven in w40–w44.

Stacker-Massimo

Taker-led tech-equity accumulator: take resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle, 24/7, ~10 USDC lots; post own bid at oracle+0.5% only when nothing is takeable. Accumulate until 100 USDC deployed; never sell.

No takeable sNVDA sell ≤oracle×1.01 and ≤12 USDC. Bid 1833 at oracle+0.5% is live and correctly priced. No refresh neede

Summary: Step-1 flagged a crash (armed=false/pidAlive=false) but current data shows full recovery: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=45, wakes_failing=false — w45 (21:05) just completed cleanly. Step-1's crash was a transient between-wake snapshot captured while the old watcher process had exited and before w45 re-armed. Prior newMatches() blind-spot (LP sNV

Watcher is alive — armed=true, pid alive, 45-min fallback set. Six consecutive wakes (w38–w45) confirm no takeable sNVDA sell-side exists; bid 1833 unmatched. The structural newMatches() first-poll blind-spot (prior: confirmed LP ask expired unfilled) persists but has nothing to miss right now. Root cause is the market: LP-Maker's sNVDA ask has been absent for hours.

w38–w45 all report zero posterGives=sNVDA open intents; LP-Maker sNVDA ask absent since ~w157 per prior summary; bid 1833 (10 USDC, oracle+0.5%) unmatched; 3 of 4 visible settled deals were LP-Maker-Matheus swaps

Sound, correct problem. Agent correctly identifies no sNVDA sell-side each wake, holds bid 1833 without unnecessary refresh (drift=0%), and defers. The loop is disciplined, not churning. The only structural error is the newMatches() blind-spot — an SDK-level issue, not a reasoning error in the agent's own logic.

ownIntentResolved: bid 1833 filled or expired

oracle drift >0.5% from $205.10 (ORACLE_BASE at bid-post time)

newMatches(): new sNVDA sell intent appearing after watcher arms (posterGives=sNVDA, posterWants=USDC, cost ≤12 USDC, price ≤oracle×1.01)

MISSING: pre-seed scan of existing open intents — newMatches() seeds seenIntents on first poll and immediately returns, so any sNVDA ask already live when watch

3 of 4 visible settled deals; posts sNVDA asks when rebalancing inventory — but sNVDA ask absent from book since ~w157

active (dominant, 13 deals/5h) but no cu

1 confirmed settled deal; may post sNVDA as part of 70/30 portfolio rebalance

active (22 deals lifetime) but no curren

DCA-via-swaps mission could produce sNVDA sell if overweight; no confirmed deal history with stacker

active (15 deals) but no confirmed sNVDA

Confirmed prior miss: LP-Maker sNVDA ask posted between w41 (17:58) and watcher reseed expired unfilled — newMatches() blind-spot. Since w42 through w45 (~3.5 hours), no sNVDA sells in book per agent-reported confirmation, so no further measurable misses in this window. If LP-Maker does post sNVDA ask while watcher is in its first-poll seed phase, that miss would recur.

Fires immediately on bid 1833 resolved — no wasted 45-min wait on the key accumulation event

Oracle drift >0.5% trigger prevents stale pricing after bid-post price moves

posterGives/posterWants filter is directionally correct — won't accept bids (which would sell stacker's stack)

Cost ceiling ≤12 USDC and price ≤oracle×1.01 match mission parameters exactly

Zero-LLM, 45-min fallback, 60s poll cadence — appropriate for a 24/7 patient accumulator

newMatches() blind-spot: first runWatchLoop iteration seeds seenIntents and returns immediately — any sNVDA ask already live when watcher arms is undetectable u

Before the `if (!seenIntents) { seenIntents = new Set(...); return; }` guard, add a pre-seed check: scan current intents with isTakeableSnvdaSell() and fireWake() if any match. One line; closes the blind-spot without changing watcher cadenc

newMatches() first-poll blind-spot in current.ts

Line ~49 of current.ts: `if (!seenIntents) { seenIntents = new Set(...); return; }` — seeds and exits without checking for already-live sNVDA asks. Any takeable ask on the book when the watcher arms is invisible for up to 45 min. Confirmed miss: LP-Maker ask between w41 and w42 expired unfilled.

Insert before the seed guard: `const initTakeable = intents.filter((i: any) => isTakeableSnvdaSell(i, oracleNow)); if (initTakeable[0]) fireWake('existing takeable sNVDA sell ' + initTakeable[0].intentId);` — then proceed to seed seenIntents and return.

newMatches() seed-and-skip pattern is a fleet-wide blind-spot template

The seed-then-return pattern is idiomatic in wake-watch.js but structurally misses any intent already live at watcher startup. Any agent using newMatches() for open-book detection (stacker, potentially others) inherits this miss. The prior LP-Maker ask miss is one confirmed data point.

Add an `onInit` callback to newMatches() or document the pre-seed scan pattern in wake-watch.js SDK docs as the required idiom for responders that must catch book state at watcher-arm time.

LP-Maker sNVDA ask absent — stacker's only reliable counterparty not posting sell-side

w38–w45 (6+ hours) confirm no sNVDA sell-side. LP-Maker's sNVDA ask has been absent since ~w157 per prior summary. Stacker has 1 reliable counterparty (LP-Maker, 3/4 deals) that isn't currently posting; bid 1833 will expire unfilled unless LP-Maker rebalances or another agent posts.

Investigate LP-Maker's current sNVDA inventory and ask-posting logic — is its sNVDA stock depleted, or is the oracle-priced ask failing to post? This is a fleet liquidity gap, not a stacker-side issue.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: Three wakes since last summary (w38/w39/w40, 06-14T18:56–19:42) all confirm the same hold: no crypto dislocation ≥1.5%, stocks market-hours blocked (Sunday), SSV zero inventory. The BTC trailing avg has drifted DOWN from $64,163.20 → $63,999.38 while spot is unchanged (~$63,909), so the gap to the buy-dip trigger has actually WIDENED from ~$708 to ~$870 — co

Gap to BTC buy-dip trigger WIDENED to ~$870 (avg drifted down $164 while spot held ~$63,909); stocks closed all Sunday; three consecutive wakes (w38–w40) confirm structurally correct hold. Next live gate is Monday 13:30 UTC — wake script is already armed for it.

No asset crosses 1.5% dislocation threshold as of w40 (83min ago). BTC buy-dip trigger at $63,039 ($63,999.38 avg × 0.985) vs spot ~$63,909 — gap ~$870. Stocks gated until 2026-06-15T13:30 UTC. SSV at +1.37% above avg (sell signal, zero inventory blocks sell). Zero open intents, 5 lifetime deals all

Sound and solving the right problem. Each wake correctly checks threshold, reports the deviation, identifies the structural block (Sunday / zero inventory), and defers without burning tokens. No churn — the agent is not re-deriving the same wrong move, it is correctly tracking the gap and waiting for a real signal. One nuance: the trailing avg drifting toward spot (converging down $164 since prior

Crypto buy-dip: any of BTC/ETH/SSV ≤ trailing_avg × 0.985 (polled every 60s)

US market open: Date.now() >= 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z fires immediately

4h fallback: armWatcher fallbackMs=14400000

Both settled deals are vs LP-Maker; it quotes delivered swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory — natural fill for any dislocation buy

DCA via delivered swaps; could cross swing-nikita's dip-buy if rebalancer's target weight is the same asset on the sell side

Momentum rotates into strongest mover — if it's selling what swing-nikita is buying (mean-reversion vs momentum divergence), they could cros

None. SSV was the closest at +1.37% (w37–w40) but that is a sell signal with zero inventory — correctly blocked. No buy-dip ≥1.5% has appeared on BTC, ETH, or SSV through w40. No intents posted by counterparties in the dislocation direction that swing-nikita could have taken.

Dual trigger: crypto buy-dip poll (60s) OR hardcoded market-open timestamp — catches both intraday crypto moves and the Monday open gate in one script

Correctly suppresses SSV sell-strength arm given zero inventory — only watches buy-dips, not sell-strength, avoiding a dead branch

Trailing avgs baked in from w40 scan (BTC $63,999.38, ETH $1,663.86, SSV $2.30) — cheap deterministic check, zero-LLM

4h fallback present; cadence appropriate for a patient dislocation fader (avg_gap_min=237 historically)

No awareness that trailing avg is drifting toward spot (avg fell $164 vs stable spot) — gap to trigger is widening silently; agent would benefit from logging av

Log `(avg - spot) / avg × 100` for each asset each wake so the observer can see whether the gap is narrowing or widening over time; right now three consecutive 'no dislocation' wakes look identical even when the structural gap is quietly wo

Trailing avg convergence toward spot silently widens trigger gap

BTC trailing avg dropped $164 (from $64,163 → $63,999) while spot held ~$63,909. Gap to buy-dip trigger widened from ~$708 to ~$870. If this pattern continues Monday (spot sideways, avg keeps drifting down), the 1.5% threshold may never clear even if spot dips slightly.

Emit avg-vs-spot deviation delta in each wake log so drift direction is observable; consider a longer-lookback window or anchoring avg to a fixed N-day close rather than a rolling sample that converges on recent sideways price.

Gap to BTC buy-dip trigger WIDENED to ~$870 (avg drifted down $164 while spot held ~$63,909); stocks closed all Sunday; three consecutive wakes (w38–w40) confirm structurally correct hold. Next live gate is Monday 13:30 UTC — wake script is already armed for it.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

check-my-quotes flagged 1867 as uncompetitive (target 1%, was 1.43%). Fresh TTL on 1871 outlives rival 1869 so fills aft

13 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781473285; next poll 92s

Summary: pidAlive=false confirmed NORMAL: w143 logs 'Watcher relaunched PID 128666, fallback…' showing the agent explicitly self-relaunches the watcher each wake; armed=true/nextFallbackMin=34 with last_wake 11min ago is the expected inter-wake state, not a process anomaly. Taking engine active this cycle: caught SSV oracle jump (took 1813, w141), gas-disciplined a -

Alive and functioning — 45 settled deals, 1 new take this cycle (SSV 1813 oracle jump, w141). pidAlive=false is normal watcher self-relaunch architecture, not a crash. The 4 open bait sells at 1% are structurally undercut by LP-Maker at 0.22-0.35%; check-my-quotes (working: caught 1867 at 1.43%, requoted to 1871) cannot close a 0.65-0.78 pp floor gap — this is a fleet/market-structure problem, not an agent defect.

LP-Maker posts swaps at 0.22-0.35%, undercutting Vulture's 1% bait-sell floor for any rational taker; taking engine (scan-edges) remains functional — took 1813 on SSV oracle jump (w141); gas skip at w142 ($0.03 gross vs ~$1 gas) was correct discipline

Sound and on-mission each wake: gas discipline enforced (w142 skip), oracle-jump edge identified and taken (w141 1813), infinite-loop bug self-caught and wake relaunched (w142 1834), check-my-quotes requote active (w145 1867→1871). Solving the right problem; not churning.

new takeable edge ≥1% via scan-edges (30s poll)

pre-expiry ~5min before soonest intent expires

quote erosion/undercut detected by check-my-quotes (cancelCmds>0)

Primary deal source (3/7 recent); Vulture takes LP-Maker's stale/mispriced intents on oracle jumps; LP-Maker's 0.22-0.35% also structurally

2/7 recent deals; arb hunter targets near-decided edges that may include Vulture's baits

Waking in ~10min after 255min dormancy; mirrors bets and takes binaries — may fill Vulture's binary/swap baits

1/7 recent deal; swap activity occasionally overlaps

1/7 recent deal; momentum swaps occasionally align with Vulture's bait sells

None identified: w142 gas skip ($0.03 gross vs ~$1 gas) was correct discipline; 1867 requote was caught and resolved by check-my-quotes within the same cycle (w145); oracle-jump take on 1813 executed promptly (w141).

scan-edges ≥1% trigger directly aligned with taker-first mission — fires exactly when there is something to take

pre-expiry ~5min trigger prevents profitable intents from expiring unfilled without polling cost

check-my-quotes erosion/undercut guard keeps bait positions competitive continuously without LLM cost

honeypot pre-seed (779, 836, 869) prevents re-firing on confirmed traps

30s poll cadence is lean — not sub-minute spam, appropriate for an opportunistic taker

2h hard fallback suits a patient agent; watcher self-relaunches per wake (confirmed w143)

check-my-quotes caused an infinite loop on intent 1834 (w142) — same intent triggered recursive requote cycle when rival fell below floor; loop guard is absent

Add a per-intent seen-requote guard in the watcher loop: track a Set of intentIds requoted this poll tick; skip any that reappear in the same check-my-quotes output to prevent the 1834-style infinite-loop recurrence.

LP-Maker's 0.22-0.35% spreads structurally undercut Vulture's 1% bait-sell floor

All 4 current bait sells (ETH, SSV, sMSFT, BTC) are at 1%+; LP-Maker posts the same assets at 0.22-0.35%. Any rational taker goes to LP-Maker first — Vulture's bait fills only during LP-Maker gaps or oracle jumps. check-my-quotes cannot close a 0.65-0.78 pp structural gap.

Fleet: coordinate LP-Maker to leave specific assets/windows uncovered so Vulture's baits have a clear lane; or give Vulture a dynamic floor that adjusts to LP-Maker's posted spread + a margin rather than a fixed 1% absolute.

check-my-quotes infinite-loop risk (w142: intent 1834)

When a rival appeared below floor mid-wake, check-my-quotes set target=1% but 1.77% exceeded the 0.25% threshold, triggering a recursive cancel/repost cycle. Wake self-recovered and relaunched watcher, but the bug is latent and could stall a future wake.

In the watcher's runWatch loop, maintain a Set<string> of intentIds already requoted this tick; skip any that reappear in check-my-quotes cancelCmds output to make requoting idempotent within a single 30s poll.

SEENIDS BLINDS BINARY + OPTIONS

LP-Maker anchors 12/14; 0xBd6a…9863 external takes 7

Both 0x57F8…B0ff↔Option-Taker; binaries and live ETH call all open/expiring unfilled

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Momentum-Nikita, Swing-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Option-Writer-Matheus, 0xBd6a…9863}

ACTIVE — 12/16 recent deals through LP-Maker; 0xBd6a…9863 untracked external is

LP-Maker-Matheus → Stacker-Massimo (blocked)

DARK — LP-Maker sNVDA ask absent w157–w163 (6 wakes); Stacker bid #1833 (10 USDC

THIN — 9 consecutive $65k expirations; Mimic-Ljuba only confirmed taker (deal #1

STALLED — live ETH call ($1,686.51, 55min left) seeded into seenIntentIds at arm

OFFLINE — both agents never provisioned; 38 consecutive null cycles; 0 intents,

newMatches() seenIds baseline locks on arm — intents already seen at watcher start are never re-surfaced

Mimic-Ljuba cannot fire on Bear-Yosher #1820 despite being the only taker; Option-Taker-Matheus cannot fire on live ETH

Mimic-Ljuba: #1820 in baseline seenBinaryIds, fallback fires ~2min post-expiry (nextFallbackMin=57); Option-Taker: ETH call seeded at arm time, no w35 triggered despite 131min window and armed=true

Bear-Yosher has exactly 1 reliable binary counterparty (Mimic-Ljuba) AND Mimic-Ljuba's seenIds blind-spot prevents re-fi

9 consecutive $65k expirations unfilled; #1820 expired; tightened to $64,800 (#1848) but same blind-spot applies to next

9 consecutive expirations cited in bear-yosher summary; deal #159 (BTC<$64,500) only confirmed binary fill; Mimic-Ljuba nextFallbackMin=57 fires after expiry window

LP-Maker-Matheus sNVDA ask inventory depleted — dark since w157, no replenishment mechanism

Stacker-Massimo bid #1833 (10 USDC, oracle+0.5%) unmatched across w38–w45; sNVDA market has no supply side

w157–w163 each log '10/12 or 11/12 live (sNVDA ask absent/dark)'; stacker summary: 'w38–w45 all report zero posterGives=sNVDA open intents'

US equity market closed Saturday–Sunday (oracle dark until 2026-06-16T13:30Z)

Rebalancer-Lior, Swing-Nikita both correctly holding; Momentum-Nikita no 2pp signal; combined capital idle but mission-c

Rebalancer nextFallbackMin=2472 (Monday 06-16T13:30Z unlock); Swing-Nikita stocks gated until 06-15T13:30Z; Momentum 9 consecutive holds since w31 — intraday range 0.076–1.730pp vs 2pp threshold

Option-Writer-Matheus #1849 (1.5h TTL) expired but ownIntentResolved poller did not fire a wake

Option-Writer has gone 194min without a wake despite its own intent expiring; next scheduled trigger is nextFallbackMin=

last_wake_min_ago=194; #1849 posted w8 with 1.5h TTL; armed=true/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=46 — ownIntentResolved claim unverified by actual behavior

newMatches() seenIds blind-spot — 2 active agents silently skip on-book intents

Mimic-Ljuba cannot re-fire on Bear-Yosher #1820/#1848 (seenBinaryIds set at arm); Option-Taker-Matheus cannot react to live ETH call ($1,686.51, 55min left) seeded at arm time — no w35 in 131min. Both agents look healthy (armed=true, wakes_failing=false) but cannot act on the intents they exist to fill. This is the same defect in two separate agent classes (binary + options).

Mimic-Ljuba fallback=57min fires post-expiry; Option-Taker 131min blind window on live call; stacker-massimo prior cycle also cited newMatches() gap — 3 agents across 2 templates

newMatches() must re-surface intents whose TTL is within N minutes of expiry, regardless of seenIds — expiry proximity overrides the dedup filter

sNVDA supply dark — LP-Maker depleted, no replenishment path, Stacker bid unmatched

LP-Maker sNVDA ask absent across 6 confirmed wakes (w157–w163); Stacker-Massimo bid #1833 (10 USDC at oracle+0.5%) sits unmatched with 280min TTL. Neither agent's mission includes an inventory reload trigger. LP-Maker self-diagnosed at w158 but no recovery in 6 wakes.

LP-Maker logs '10/12 live' (sNVDA gap) at w162–w163; Stacker open book entry: 'gives 10 USDC → wants 0.04852 sNVDA (280m left)'

Add sNVDA inventory replenishment path to LP-Maker mission (oracle-sourced restocking or alert to human); alternatively, source sNVDA from Stacker-Massimo's perspective once a supply agent is provisioned

IndexBasket market offline — both sides unprovisioned for 38 cycles

index-maker and index-taker both have armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, null wake script — never instantiated. Full market (LONG + SHORT side) dark for 38 consecutive observation cycles.

index-maker summary: '37th consecutive null cycle'; index-taker summary: '38th consecutive null cycle'; both show tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0

Provision wallet addresses, CLAUDE.md configs, and watcher scripts for both index-maker and index-taker; they are mutually dependent — both sides must go live together

Binary market structurally thin — Bear-Yosher has 1 counterparty; 9 straight expiries unfilled

Bear-Yosher has exactly 1 confirmed binary taker (Mimic-Ljuba, deal #159). The seenIds bug (see critical insight) compounds this — even Mimic-Ljuba cannot re-fire on near-expiry intents. Tightening from $65k → $64,800 is correct adaptation but does not address counterparty scarcity.

9 consecutive $65k expirations; 1 reliable counterparty; Mimic-Ljuba nextFallbackMin=57 fires after #1820 expiry window; BTC at $63,793 (~1.5% OTM for #1848)

Core seenIds fix is the highest-leverage unblock; secondarily, recruit a second binary taker (e.g. arb-hunter-tom has binary capability) who can fire on BTC <$64,800

Stacker-Massimo crash was transient — fully recovered at w45

Step-1 flagged armed=false/pidAlive=false as a crash. Step-2 confirms this was a between-wake process exit snapshot: w45 completed cleanly (21:05), watcher re-armed with nextFallbackMin=32. wakes_failing=false, no error. The agent is alive and waiting for sNVDA supply.

Step-2: 'armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=45, wakes_failing=false — w45 (21:05) just completed cleanly'

No action needed — between-wake pidAlive=false is normal for agents that relaunch watcher each cycle (also confirmed for vulture-andrew)

0xBd6a…9863 is second-largest fleet counterparty — untracked

External account 0xBd6a…9863 settled 7/16 recent deals (all swap-type: 6 vs LP-Maker, 1 vs Rebalancer-Lior). Larger than any single named agent-to-agent pair. Behavior appears consistent and benign but no visibility into its intent patterns.

Recent deals list: LP-Maker↔0xBd6a (×6), Rebalancer-Lior↔0xBd6a (×1); orient context: 'external accounts for 7/16 recent deals'

Profile 0xBd6a…9863 — identify its template preferences and schedule patterns; could be a strategic market-making partner or arbitrageur worth optimizing against

Fix newMatches() to re-surface intents nearing expiry regardless of seenIds — expiry-proximity override unblocks mimic-ljuba (binary) and option-taker-matheus (options) simultaneously; highest-leverage single change this cycle

Provision index-maker + index-taker together (wallet, CLAUDE.md, watcher script) — IndexBasket market has been 100% offline for 38 cycles; both sides required simultaneously

Add sNVDA inventory replenishment trigger to LP-Maker mission — 6+ confirmed wakes of self-diagnosed gap with no recovery path; Stacker-Massimo bid unmatched until supply returns

Recruit second BTC binary taker (arb-hunter-tom is a candidate) to give Bear-Yosher a counterparty beyond Mimic-Ljuba — 9 consecutive expirations with 1 reliable taker is a structural ceiling the seenIds fix alone cannot fully solve

Marginally worse vs last run: stacker-massimo is now armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null (crashed, not resting) — prior run surfaced the structural newMatches() blind-spot but the process was still alive; it is now down. Everything else stable: LP-Maker still anchors 13/16 recent deals,

stacker-massimo CRASHED: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — no longer just blind, now offline; prior structural newMatches() miss may have ended in a non-recovery

Two imminent expirations: Bear-Yosher anchor #1820 (6min left) and Option-Writer ETH call strike $1,680.32 (8min left) — both may expire unfilled unless a taker fires now

mimic-ljuba waking in ~10min (nextFallbackMin=10) after 255min dormancy — the only agent positioned to take Bear-Yosher's expiring binary

LP-Maker burn $66.88/5h (dominant cost center, 10 open intents) — sNVDA ask absent since w157 per prior; verify current book position

0xBd6a…9863 external accounts for 7/16 recent deals — untracked but second-largest counterparty fleet-wide

Edge compressed to -13bps on SSV by w237; nextFallbackMin=26 now. Did any surface (SSV, BTC binary, or other) clear the take bar in the 16min since last wake, or is this another confirmed-no-edge hold?

Anchor #1820 (BTC<$65,000) has 6min left on the book — did it get taken or expire, and is Deal #159 (BTC<$64,500, exp June 15 17:59Z) still in-the-money at current BTC ~$63,752?

36th consecutive null cycle — is there any new provisioning signal (wallet, config, env var, watcher) this cycle, or is this another identical null?

37th consecutive null cycle — same question: any provisioning signal, or another null identical to prior?

sNVDA ask was inventory-depleted from w157 onward per prior summary — is sNVDA currently absent from the 10 open intents on the book, and did w158+ self-repair attempt succeed or is the sNVDA slot still dark?

nextFallbackMin=10 means imminent wake after 255min dormancy — does Bear-Yosher's expiring anchor (#1820, 6min left) or any other resting binary meet the ≥3pp edge floor, and will mimic fire in time?

8 consecutive holds post-w40 crypto-only pivot; nextFallbackMin=422. Has the fast gap reached ≥2pp dual-confirmation threshold since w40 (62min ago), or is this confirmed 9th consecutive hold with portfolio still unchanged at ~$4X USDC?

Option-Writer's ETH call (strike $1,680.32, 0.5 USDC premium, 8min left) is live on the book — does it fail the ≥4h expiry criterion (it will be ~0min at wake), and is option-taker's watcher even seeing this intent or already past it?

ETH call #1849 (8min left, 0.5 USDC premium) is about to expire; nextFallbackMin=61 suggests the watcher won't fire until well after expiry — did option-taker or anyone take it, and what does the contrarian engine queue next?

Binary #0x0723 (sMSFT <$420, 79.94% implied, June 19 expiry) is the sole open intent; nextFallbackMin=1334. Has the Polymarket implied probability on sMSFT shifted meaningfully, and is any other agent's resting intent newly mispriced vs Pol

Armed and silent at nextFallbackMin=2487 (~Monday 13:30Z market open). Did any LP-Maker or Vulture-Andrew sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT ask appear in the 437min since w47 that rebalancer could have taken if its watcher watched the book — and is the Mon

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — watcher is down, not resting. Is this a crash caused by the newMatches() blind-spot (prior: LP sNVDA ask expired unfilled), or a new failure mode? The open sNVDA bid (#1 on book, 295min TT

BTC gap to 1.5% trigger was ~$708 at w37 (81min ago, spot ~$63,909 vs baseline $64,163). Has spot moved to narrow the gap, and are stock gates (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) still closed for Sunday, confirming another hold is structurally correct?

armed=true/nextFallbackMin=36 with pidAlive=false — normal scheduled-wake pattern or process anomaly? With 6 open intents on the book, are any undercut by LP-Maker's compressed spreads (0.22-0.35% vs Vulture's 1% floor), requiring a re-quot

stacker-massimo: armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null confirms crash — restart the watcher process immediately; investigate whether the newMatches() structural blind-spot caused a fatal unh

Option-Writer ETH call (8min left) will almost certainly expire unfilled — option-taker-matheus last woke 129min ago and won't fire in time; consider whether option-writer's TTL calibration should acc

Bear-Yosher anchor #1820 expires in 6min with mimic-ljuba's nextFallbackMin=10 — monitor whether mimic fires in time to take it; if it misses again, the two agents' cadences are structurally misaligne

0xBd6a…9863 external wallet settled 7/16 recent deals (all with LP-Maker) — identify whether this is a sanctioned external LP or untracked bot; if external, it's the fleet's 2nd-most-active counterpar