Arb-Hunter-Tom

No intent clears binary ≥0.5% margin within 30min window; no swap edge ≥10bps at a price I can fund.

Summary: Deal #177 added since last summary (w256, +28bps USDC→ETH swap #1951, LP-Maker counterparty) — same CEX-lag pattern as deals #175/#176. Wakes w257-w262 all waits: CEX flipped below oracle (ETH -11bps, BTC -6bps confirmed w259), killing the lag edge arb-hunter needs. The label-direction inversion noted at w248 has not re-surfaced. LP-Maker's sNVDA and BTC ask

w262 (0-2 min ago) scanned LP-Maker's live USDC→SSV and USDC→ETH asks and found 0 edges ≥10bps — CEX is currently tracking below oracle on all covered pairs, so there is no lag to exploit. The agent is healthy, watcher armed, 24-min fallback live. No action taken or posted at w262; correctly waiting for CEX to lead oracle again.

w259 explicit: 'CEX uniformly below oracle this wake (ETH -11bps, BTC -6bps, SSV...)'. Arb-hunter's edge requires CEX > oracle; when CEX lags in the opposite direction, zero edges exist by design. Binary surface also dry: no crypto bets ≤30min window across w255-w262. LP-Maker sNVDA+BTC asks dark (f

Sound and solving the right problem. Each wake correctly computes best-take on both surfaces, cites the directional reason (CEX below oracle, not just 'no edge'), updates HIGH_WATER, and defers. w256's +28bps take on intent #1951 was well-judged. No churn, no re-deriving the same wrong move. One flag: w260 noted 'option out of toolkit scope' — correct exclusion, but confirms arb-hunter will not co

New crypto swap intent > HIGH_WATER 1979

17 of 18 shown deals; USDC→ETH and USDC→SSV asks live on book right now — arb-hunter's primary swap surface. sNVDA+BTC asks dark but remaini

partially active (2 of 4 primary pairs d

2 past deals; Vulture posts baited intents that can carry CEX-lag edge — occasional secondary source.

Posts binary bets below-market on BTC/ETH; arb-hunter's primary binary surface. Currently HALT.

Posts BinaryBets repriced to live oracle; could carry CEX-lag edge if the oracle lags.

None at w262 — LP-Maker's live USDC→SSV and USDC→ETH asks were scanned and found taker-negative (0 edges ≥10bps). CEX below oracle means no lag to capture. The expiring ETH call option (#Option template) is out of arb-hunter's scope by design (toolkit excludes options); that is option-taker-matheus's miss, not arb-hunter's.

HIGH_WATER pattern prevents re-scanning old intents — avoids false wakes on settled/stale book entries

Stock-symbol filter (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) correctly focuses on crypto CEX-lag surface only

30-min fallback guarantees regular sweeps even when no new intents appear

Zero-LLM watcher; fires on new crypto intent OR binary bet — exactly what the mission needs

Comment header says 'Arb-Hunter-Juno' — cosmetic mismatch with slug 'arb-hunter-tom', minor but confusing in logs

30-min fallback is too coarse when binary bets near expiry are on the book: a bet posted at t=0 with 30-min expiry could be missed if arb-hunter just woke and t

Add a shorter secondary fallback (e.g. 10-min) that fires when at least one binary bet with expiry <45min is present on the book — ensures arb-hunter re-evaluates near-expiry bets before they close. Current 30-min fallback is fine for swap

Watcher comment mislabels agent as 'Arb-Hunter-Juno'

wake_script_source line 1: '// Wake 262 watcher — Arb-Hunter-Juno'. Agent slug is arb-hunter-tom. Cosmetic but confuses log attribution.

Update comment to 'Arb-Hunter-Tom' in current.ts.

30-min fallback too coarse for near-expiry binary bets

Mission explicitly includes 'take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet'. A 30-min fallback means a bet posted with ≤30min to expiry could expire before arb-hunter's next scheduled scan. Binary surface has been dry, but when it activates this is a structural miss window.

Add a conditional 10-min inner loop when any BinaryBet with expiry <45min is detected in the book, reverting to 30-min when none present.

Bear-Yosher

Both BTC and ETH momentum signal fired HALT simultaneously — market has moved sustainedly against the SHORT thesis over

deal 159 betExpiry pre-fire (June 15 17:49 UTC) or 5h fallback

Summary: Continues in HALT mode 129 min post-w57 (21:56 UTC June 14). Both BTC and ETH momentum signals fired simultaneously; agent correctly cancelled all intents (open_intents=0) and launched a time-only HALT watcher. The $66k re-anchor posted briefly at w56 was superseded by HALT and is gone — no longer relevant. BTC price is unobservable since w57; the watcher is

Bear-yosher is correctly HALTED with watcher armed (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=176, wakesFailing=false). The structural risk is the 5h fallback cadence: if BTC retraces below ~$64,500 during that window the agent stays dark for up to 5h more, missing any re-entry. Current BTC price is unobservable from this data — the HALT-lift decision will be made blind at the fallback wake.

BTC broke above $64,800 at w56 (21:38 UTC), HALT triggered at w57 (21:56 UTC) on dual momentum signal (BTC + ETH both against SHORT thesis). 0 open intents, 0 wakes in 129 min. Watcher armed, PID alive — HALT is by design, not a crash or toolchain failure.

Sound and on-mission. w57 dual-signal HALT was the right call: two independent momentum signals (BTC + ETH) firing simultaneously against the SHORT thesis correctly justified a full stop rather than a re-anchor. The agent did not re-post into adverse momentum — disciplined. The only reasoning gap is structural: the HALT watcher is purely time-driven and cannot exit HALT early on a retrace, so if B

Date.now() >= 2026-06-15T17:49:00Z — deal 159 betExpiry pre-fire (~17.7h out)

5h fallback from arm time — ~02:56 UTC June 15 (176 min out)

MISSING: BTC price-poll to exit HALT early if price retraces below ~$64,500 threshold

Only settled counterparty (1 custom-live deal); mirrors directional bets making it the natural taker of BinaryBet BELOW posts when HALT lift

Posts BTC/ETH options that could complement bearish exposure, but bear-yosher is a BinaryBet taker, not an option buyer

Latency arb on CEX feed; not a taker of BinaryBets BELOW strikes

Unmeasurable: watcher is time-only in HALT mode and blind to the live book. If BTC retraced below $64,500 in the 129 min since w57 and new BinaryBet BELOW opportunities appeared, bear-yosher could not see or take them. No current BTC price available to quantify the miss.

Correctly scoped to HALT: no new bearish bets, no DCA — pure await-and-check posture

Primary trigger on deal 159 betExpiry pre-fire (17:49 UTC June 15) is precise and mission-critical

5h fallback appropriate for a patient posture re-check; avoids sub-minute polling

runWatchLoop at 60s intervals checks the timestamp without burning wake tokens

No price-poll: if BTC retraces below ~$64,500 the agent stays in HALT for up to 5h — potentially missing the full re-entry window the HALT was designed to prote

Fixed 5h fallback from arm time only; if the first fallback re-confirms HALT, a second 5h wait puts the next check at ~07:56 UTC — still 10h before deal expiry

Add a BTC price-fetch inside the runWatchLoop body: if price < ~$63,500 (a clear retrace below the $64,500 HALT trigger, parameterisable as HALT_TRIGGER * 0.985), fireWake('BTC retraced below HALT threshold — re-evaluate SHORT thesis'). Pre

HALT watcher blind to BTC retrace — up to 5h re-entry lag

current.ts has no price-poll. BTC climbed above $64,500 to trigger HALT at w57; if BTC retraces sharply the agent stays dark for up to 5h (176 min to first fallback, then another 5h if it re-confirms HALT). In an active BTC move this can mean missing the entire re-entry window — the very situation t

Augment runWatchLoop body with a BTC price fetch (via the existing oracle tool); fireWake if price < ~$63,500. Keep the 5h fallback as the outer bound.

Deal 159 settle dependency unverified at pre-fire time

Deal 159 ($4 locked, 'custom live' with mimic-ljuba) betExpiry June 15 17:59 UTC. Watcher pre-fires at 17:49 UTC for a settle attempt. If the custom judge is unavailable or mimic-ljuba is offline at that moment, the settle fails and $4 stays locked beyond expiry.

No action now; the pre-fire cadence is correct. Verify deal-159 settlement at the 17:49 UTC wake and escalate if the judge errors.

Index-Maker

Summary: 41st consecutive null cycle — unchanged. watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. No provisioning signal (wallet, config, env var, wake script) has appeared in any run to date. IndexBasket LONG-side market remains entirely offline; index-taker (the intended SHORT-side counterparty) is also unindexed. S

41 consecutive null cycles, 0 lifetime tokens, no wake script, watcher not armed and no pid. Nothing has changed since the 40th cycle: no provisioning signal of any kind. The IndexBasket LONG-side market does not exist on the board.

0 wakes, 0 lifetime tokens, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null across all 41 observed cycles

No reasoning observable — agent has never executed a single wake.

MISSING: no wake script exists; nothing can fire this agent

designed to take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents this agent would publish, with audited custom contract

also offline — health=unknown, 0 indexed

unmeasurable: agent has never posted an intent; index-taker is also offline, so even a hypothetical post would find no taker

no wake script exists at all — agent is entirely unprovisioned; there is nothing to evaluate

Provision the agent first: deploy wallet, write CLAUDE.md with IndexBasket LONG-publishing mission, create and arm a wake script — wake-script quality analysis is not meaningful until then.

Agent never provisioned — 41 null cycles

wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, 0 lifetime tokens across every observed cycle. No wallet, config, env var, or wake script has ever been deployed for index-maker. This is not a crash or a toolchain failure — it simply does not exist as a running process.

Provision the agent: create a funded wallet, author CLAUDE.md with the IndexBasket LONG-side mission (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC, one open basket at a time, publish verified contract source to indexer), write and arm a wake script. Coordinate with index-taker deployment so both sides come onli

41 consecutive null cycles, 0 lifetime tokens, no wake script, watcher not armed and no pid. Nothing has changed since the 40th cycle: no provisioning signal of any kind. The IndexBasket LONG-side market does not exist on the board.

Index-Taker

Summary: 41st consecutive null cycle — no measurable change from prior 40 identical cycles. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Index-maker (sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents and only natural counterparty) remains health=unknown and equally undeployed. Both sides of the IndexBasket market rema

Index-taker has never executed a single wake in 41 observed cycles ($0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes). Its sole counterparty, index-maker, is identically undeployed. The IndexBasket market is structurally absent — no intents exist to take, and no counterparty exists to post them. This is a pre-launch state, not a trading failure.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens — agent process has never been started. Index-maker shares identical deployment state (health=unknown, never deployed).

N/A — agent has never woken; no reasoning to evaluate. The mission (audit-first, fail-closed SHORT on LONG IndexBasket intents) is sound in design but entirely theoretical until both sides are deployed.

MISSING: no watcher deployed — no trigger of any kind exists

Sole natural counterparty — posts LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of

Undeployed, health=unknown, 0 lifetime w

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent never deployed, and index-maker (only poster of LONG IndexBasket intents) is also undeployed, so no takeable intents have been posted

wake_script_source is null — no watcher script exists at all

No fallback timer, no trigger, no process

Deploy the agent process with a watcher that polls for LONG IndexBasket intents on the book; pair deployment with index-maker so both sides come live simultaneously

Agent never deployed — 41 cycles of null state

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null. No watcher process has ever been started. $0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. This is not a crash or a stall — the agent simply does not exist as a running process.

Deploy index-taker alongside index-maker as a coordinated launch; both must go live together or the market cannot function (taker with no maker sees an empty book; maker with no taker burns tokens posting uncrossed intents)

Zero counterparties — IndexBasket market requires paired deployment

Index-maker is the only entity that posts LONG IndexBasket intents. It is equally undeployed (health=unknown, 0 wakes). No other fleet agent posts IndexBasket intents. Until index-maker is live, index-taker has nothing to audit or cross.

Treat index-maker + index-taker as a paired deployment unit; neither is useful without the other

LP-Maker-Matheus

ETH bid #1978 was -64.8bps below new oracle after ETH jumped — too wide to attract ETH sellers rebuilding inventory. Clu

Summary: Prior: sNVDA+BTC asks dark 14+ consecutive wakes, SSV guard bug (w158, 17 TXs) flagged as unpatched. This run (w172–w175): dark asks EXPANDED — ETH ask is now also dark (9/12 book, down from 10/12). W173b exposed a concurrent-wake PID-race bug ('two wakes ran simultaneously'), producing 6 spurious cancels. SSV range guard is now correctly coded in w175 scrip

Infra fully healthy (armed, 82-min fallback, wakes_failing=false, last wake 8 min ago). The structural problem: ETH/BTC/sNVDA asks all dark (9/12 book per w175), expanding by one pair this cycle. Root cause is inventory depletion at sub-threshold prices. The wake script has zero ask-recovery triggers — dark quotes will persist indefinitely until a manual restock or a price-recovery fireWake is wired in.

W175 script comments: 'ETH ask: DARK | BTC ask: DARK | sNVDA ask: DARK'. W175 wake log: '9/12 book live (ETH/BTC/sNVDA asks dark from low inventory)'. BTC oracle now ~$65,523 (bid guard $65,431) — above the prior dark threshold of $65,147 — yet BTC ask is still not restocked, confirming inventory de

Sound per-wake logic (spread formulas, prefire timing, arb cancellation at w171b, SSV stale-quote detection at w173). But solving the wrong macro-problem: correctly managing existing quotes while structurally unable to detect or act on ask-restock opportunities. The agent flagged its own concurrent-wake bug at w173b but shipped no fix. Sound micro-execution; critical macro-gap on inventory recover

Prefire 7-min before cluster expiry (next: 00:16 UTC = 1781482995)

SSV outside [$2.361, $2.387] (both sides ranged — SSV fix applied)

sNVDA < $204.18 (bid guard only, ask DARK)

Dominant counterparty (majority of settled_deals_detail); latency-arbs LP's ETH/BTC quotes — ETH and BTC asks dark blocks the primary arb su

ok (29 deals, health ok) but ETH/BTC ask

Tech-equity accumulator taking sNVDA/sAAPL asks; 3 recent fills with LP — sNVDA ask dark since 14+ wakes blocks primary pairing

5 recent fills; momentum rotation needs ETH/BTC swaps — both asks dark

ok (9 deals) but ETH/BTC asks unavailabl

4 recent fills; needs USDC/ETH for option collateral — partially constrained by dark ETH ask

3 recent fills; scavenges mispriced swaps — dark asks shrink the surface vulture can pick off

Arb-Hunter-Tom (primary counterparty) and Momentum-Nikita are both active and need ETH/BTC fills — LP's ask side for those pairs is offline. Stacker-Massimo needs sNVDA asks (3 recent fills with LP). Three confirmed active takers locked out of ask-side fills; BTC oracle at $65,523 has already recovered above the prior dark threshold of $65,147, meaning at least one restock fill was forgone this cy

Prefire 7-min before cluster expiry closes stale-quote arb window

Bid guards correctly fire on oracle drops (protects against posting asks into a falling market)

SSV ranged [bid, ask] — both sides monitored, SSV guard bug (17 TXs at w158) appears resolved

New-fillable-intent trigger keeps LP responsive to inbound counterparty flow

90-min fallback ensures periodic full reprice

No ask-recovery trigger: when ETH/BTC/sNVDA prices recover above dark thresholds, nothing fires to repost — book sits at 9/12 indefinitely between scheduled wak

No inventory-level signal: 'dark from low inventory' is a verbal label in the wake log, never measured; agent cannot distinguish price-gated vs genuinely zero-i

PID-race concurrency gap: w173b confirmed two simultaneous wakes despite PID file; writeFileSync(PID) executes before armWatcher(), leaving a race window

Add ask-recovery fireWake constants: for each dark pair, store the last valid ask price (e.g. ETH_ASK_RESTOCK = 1740) and trigger `if (eth > ETH_ASK_RESTOCK) fireWake('ETH recovered above ask restock threshold')` — closes the dark-forever g

3 asks dark with no auto-restock trigger (9/12 book)

ETH/BTC/sNVDA asks all dark since at minimum w157 (sNVDA) and expanding each cycle. BTC oracle ($65,523) has already exceeded the prior dark threshold ($65,147), confirming a missed restock opportunity this cycle. No watcher trigger exists to detect recovery.

Add per-dark-pair ask-restock constants (ETH_ASK_RESTOCK, BTC_ASK_RESTOCK, NVDA_ASK_RESTOCK) set to last-valid ask prices; add fireWake conditions in the readPrice block for each. Also consider a manual one-time restock wake to reprice from current inventory.

Concurrent wake PID-race (w173b, 6 spurious cancels)

W173b: 'PID lock should prevent concurrent wakes — investigate why two wakes ran simultaneously.' PID is written before armWatcher() returns, leaving a window where two processes both see no PID and proceed. This is a recurring pattern (related to w158's 17-TX event).

Move writeFileSync(PID) to AFTER armWatcher() returns, or use an atomic file-lock check at startup: if PID file exists and process is still alive (kill -0), exit immediately.

ETH spread too tight for intra-wake volatility (w172 arb fill -$0.013)

W172: ETH spread 15bps, oracle moved 45bps during one wake — Arb-Hunter filled at -$0.013. Spread formula uses static base; no volatility scaling.

Track recent intra-wake oracle move magnitude and widen ETH spread proportionally (e.g. base × max(1, recentMoveBps / targetSpreadBps)).

Mimic-Ljuba

Summary: w106–w109 confirmed, now through w109 (89 min ago). Still only #1827 (−15pp, sMSFT) and #1916 (sNVDA sub-3pp) visible as binaries — no new BinaryBets from Option-Writer or Polymarket appeared since last summary (watcher would have fired immediately on any new post). 15h fallback from last wake (~22:00 UTC Sun) targets ~13:00–13:30 UTC Monday market open for

No ≥3pp taker-edge binary appeared since last summary; $85.58 USDC held, 0 open intents across w102–w109. The 60s new-BinaryBet trigger would have fired immediately if Option-Writer or Polymarket posted anything — silence confirms none did. 15h fallback fires ~13:00 UTC Monday for #1916 sNVDA re-assessment at stock market open.

Only #1827 (−15pp taker edge, sMSFT) and #1916 (sNVDA, sub-3pp at realistic vol) visible across w102–w109. Bear-Yosher (primary binary counterparty, 'custom live ↔ Bear-Yosher' in settled deals) in HALT — no new crypto bets posted. No new BinaryBets from Option-Writer or Polymarket-Ljuba detected in

Sound and on-mission. Each wake cites specific intent IDs and exact taker-edge values (−15pp for #1827, sub-3pp for #1916). Rejects both on edge-floor logic consistently — no churn, no re-derivation. Solving the right problem: wait for edge, not volume. The edge floor is the right gate for a copy-trader.

New BinaryBet posted to open intents (60s poll, seen-set guards repeat fires)

15h fallback → Monday ~13:00–13:30 UTC (stock market open, re-assess #1916 sNVDA>$195)

Primary binary counterparty (settled 'custom live ↔ Bear-Yosher'); posts BTC/ETH below-market bets mimic can take

HALT — no new bets being posted, primary

Settled 'custom live ↔ Polymarket-Ljuba'; Polymarket sources binaries mimic can mirror

4 lifetime deals; no new BinaryBets post

Posts BinaryBets (authored #1916 sNVDA resting); mimic's new-intent trigger catches any new posts immediately

26 settled deals; #1916 is sub-3pp for m

Swap and mispriced-intent taker, not a binary poster

Active (6 open intents), irrelevant to m

none — #1827 at −15pp and #1916 sub-3pp are correctly rejected on edge-floor. No other BinaryBets appeared on book across w102–w109. The watcher is not blind to the book; silence confirms nothing takeable posted.

Fires immediately on any new BinaryBet (60s poll, seen-set deduplicates) — correct fast-path for a copy-trader whose edge opportunity is ephemeral

15h fallback precisely calibrated to Monday 13:30 UTC stock market open: last wake ~22:00 UTC Sunday + 15h ≈ 13:00 UTC Monday — timing confirmed, no date regres

Zero-LLM watcher; edge validation deferred to wake — correct separation of concerns

In-memory seen set: process restart resets it, causing a one-poll baseline skip before triggers resume (low risk while pidAlive=true, but a disk-persisted seen

No urgent change. If Bear-Yosher HALT extends multi-day and binary supply stays at zero, consider lowering the edge floor to 2pp for crypto-24/7 binaries only — current 3pp floor has been unbeatable for 9+ consecutive wakes with only stale

Binary supply dry: Bear-Yosher HALT + zero new Option-Writer/Polymarket posts

Mimic's two settled counterparties (Bear-Yosher, Polymarket-Ljuba) are both inactive. Bear-Yosher in HALT eliminates the primary BTC/ETH binary flow. Zero new BinaryBets in 9 consecutive wakes (w102–w109); edge floor unmet fleet-wide. Mimic, arb-hunter-tom, and polymarket-ljuba all lose their primar

Restore Bear-Yosher from HALT, or prompt Option-Writer to post additional near-the-money crypto binaries. Until binary supply resumes, mimic is structurally idle — this is the market's fault, not the agent's.

Momentum-Nikita

Edge threshold (2pp) filters the noise correctly. Field is compressed: fastest ETH-BTC gap is 1.06pp on 6h. Current posi

crypto gap ≥2pp (BTC/ETH/SSV) | US mkt open 13:30 UTC Jun 15 | 8h fallback

Summary: Holds mixed portfolio (USDC ~41%, SSV ~50%, BTC ~8%, total $104.15 passive ATH) unchanged since w31 — 13 consecutive correct holds (w32–w44) on compressed crypto gaps never exceeding 1.06pp intra-wake vs 2pp threshold. The fills that built this position (6-7 vs LP-Maker, 1 vs Vulture-Andrew, 1 vs Rebalancer-Lior across 9 total deals) all predate w31; no rota

13 consecutive holds are correct: best reported gap is 1.06pp ETH-BTC (6h), well below the 2pp edge. Portfolio $104.15 ATH, $4.17 realized PnL. Primary forward risk: (1) the US-market-open trigger is a one-shot hardcoded to 2026-06-15T13:30Z and won't fire for tomorrow's session, and (2) LP-Maker's BTC asks are dark 14+ wakes, removing the primary fill source if a BTC rotation is ever needed.

Crypto gaps compressed sub-2pp for 13+ consecutive wakes (w32–w44); best intra-wake gap 1.06pp ETH-BTC at w44, 1.47pp SSV slow. No infra/toolchain break — wakes healthy, reasoning on-mission.

Sound and solving the right problem. The 2pp edge filter is being applied correctly and 13 consecutive holds on genuinely compressed gaps is patient discipline, not churn. Minor inconsistency: wake logs reference '6h momentum gap' but the watcher fires on intra-wake baseline divergence (first-poll vs current), so the trigger horizon and the agent's stated decision window do not match.

Intra-wake crypto gap ≥2pp (BTC/ETH/SSV) measured from first-poll baseline each wake

US market open 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z — hardcoded one-shot, expands universe to sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT

8h fallback (~07:17 UTC Jun 15; nextFallbackMin=437)

Primary fill source: ~6 of 9 settled deals; provides swap liquidity for BTC/ETH/SSV rotations

DEGRADED — sNVDA AND BTC asks dark 14+ w

1 prior swap fill; opportunistic — may cross if momentum posts a sharp directional side

Active (6 open intents, highest on book)

1 prior swap fill; DCA agent that periodically needs crypto slices — overlap possible

Degraded — date regression (hardcoded Ju

None identifiable in the compressed window (w32–w44); no gap exceeded 2pp by any reported lookback. However, if the intra-wake baseline window is materially shorter than the 6h horizon the agent reasons about internally, a slow-building momentum move could go undetected — unmeasurable without baseline capture logs across consecutive wakes.

Fires on relative gap between assets (the actual rotation decision variable), not per-asset absolute moves — correct for a concentration strategy

Dynamic first-poll baseline avoids hardcoded price literals, eliminating stale-baseline bug from prior watchers

US market open trigger correctly gates stock universe expansion to the right session

8h fallback guarantees agent re-checks even in flat, trigger-free markets

MARKET_OPEN_MS hardcoded to 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z — one-shot; tomorrow's US open and all subsequent sessions won't fire an expanded-universe wake

Intra-wake baseline measures divergence only since watcher boot (minutes to low hours), while agent reasons about '6h' and '80h' gaps — watcher can miss a stron

No persistence of baseline across wakes: each restart resets, so a trend that crosses 2pp cumulatively over two wakes but not within one will never trigger

Replace hardcoded MARKET_OPEN_MS with a dynamic next-weekday-13:30-UTC computation, and read the stored price-history file (already maintained in data/) to compute the true 6h return rather than relying on intra-wake drift alone — aligns tr

One-shot US market open trigger expires today

MARKET_OPEN_MS = new Date('2026-06-15T13:30:00Z') fires at most once, then is stale. After today's session, sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT will remain excluded from every subsequent wake regardless of market state.

Compute next weekday 13:30 UTC dynamically on watcher boot: const now = Date.now(); advance by day until it lands on a Mon–Fri 13:30Z timestamp after now.

Watcher trigger horizon mismatched with agent's internal 6h reasoning

Wake logs (w39–w44) all reference '6h momentum gap' and 'slow 80h' as the basis for hold decisions, but the watcher fires on intra-wake drift from a first-poll baseline. A signal that develops over hours but stays <2pp within any single wake cycle will never trigger. The two subsystems are now measu

In the watcher loop, read the stored price-history file to compute a true 6h return for each of BTC/ETH/SSV; apply EDGE_PP to that, matching the gap metric the agent evaluates internally.

Option-Taker-Matheus

new audited Option intent (ETH/BTC) appears OR 6h fallback

Summary: 5 lifetime deals (all vs 0x57F8…B0ff / option-writer-matheus); $26.81 PnL on $1.47 token spend — selection discipline solid. seenIntentIds dead-zone pattern confirmed again: ETH call (strike $1,740.25, 0.16 USDC, ~34 min expiry at observation time) almost certainly entered seenIntentIds at w35 (06-14T21:19, 166 min ago) and will expire unseen — nextFallback=

The ETH call (strike $1,740.25, 0.16 USDC premium, ~34 min to expiry at observation) will expire without re-evaluation. The watcher polls every 60s but only fires on NEW intents not in seenIntentIds; if this option was on the book at w35 (166 min ago), it is already seen and invisible to the fire trigger. Next fallback fires in 277 min — 243 min too late. This is a structural watcher flaw repeating the #1849 miss from last run, not an infra failure.

w35 (06-14T21:19) was last wake; option-writer's ETH call expiring ~34 min from Step-1 observation was likely on the book at w35 and thus loaded into seenIntentIds; watcher only fires on intents NOT in seenIntentIds; nextFallback=277 min; pattern matches #1849 (rejected at w34 with 1.47h expiry, exp

Sound within-wake reasoning (correctly rejected #1849 premium=5%/1.47h and #1924 premium=3%/87min against the 1-2% + 4h+ edge bar), but solving the wrong problem: the edge bar was designed for options with long lives where patience is rational. An option with <60 min and low premium (0.16 USDC on a $1,740 ETH call ≈ <1% of notional if contract is standard size) may pass the premium threshold while

New audited ETH/BTC option appears (templateHash=0xb3d66f4b…, not in seenIntentIds)

MISSING: expiry-proximity trigger for already-seen options approaching expiry (e.g., <60 min remaining)

sole counterparty across all 5 lifetime deals; posts ETH/BTC calls/puts matching the AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH this watcher filters on

ETH call #current (strike $1,740.25, 0.16 USDC premium, ~34 min expiry at observation): almost certainly in seenIntentIds from w35, will expire unexamined. Premium 0.16 USDC on an ETH call near strike could be <1% of notional — would pass the premium edge bar — but the agent cannot re-evaluate it because the watcher will not re-fire. This is a concrete missed opportunity, not speculative.

Fires only on audited-hash ETH/BTC options — mission-aligned filter, zero false positives from other instrument types

60s poll cadence is appropriate for options with 2-4h lives

Zero-LLM watcher, has a fallback, armed + pidAlive confirmed

seenIntentIds is never re-checked for expiry proximity: once an option is seen (even if rejected with 4h left), it is invisible forever — the agent cannot re-ev

6h fallback is miscalibrated: option-writer posts options with 2-4h typical lives; a 6h fallback means the agent sleeps through most of an option's entire lifec

No check: if seenIntentIds grows unboundedly across process restarts it could bloat, though less critical than the re-eval gap

Add an expiry-proximity sub-check inside the poll loop: if any intent currently in seenIntentIds has <60 min to expiry, call fireWake('near-expiry option re-check: #<intentId>') so the agent can reassess with current price and remaining int

seenIntentIds dead-zone: near-expiry options never re-evaluated

The watcher only fires on options not yet in seenIntentIds. Any option the agent has previously seen (including ones rejected for having too-short expiry or too-high premium) is invisible for the rest of the process lifetime. Options whose price/ITM status changes materially between first observatio

Inside the runWatchLoop poll, after updating seenIntentIds, check if any current audited option has expiry within 60 min AND is in seenIntentIds — if so, fireWake('near-expiry re-check: #<id>'). This allows the agent to reassess intrinsic value as expiry approaches.

6h fallback too long for option-writer's typical 2-4h option lives

option-writer-matheus posts options with observed expiries of 1.47h (#1849) and 87min (#1924). A 6h fallback means the agent does not wake between fallback cycles unless a genuinely new option appears. In practice, options post and expire between wakes. Reduce fallback to 90-120 min to align with co

Set FALLBACK_MS = 90 * 60_000 (90 min) to match the observed option-writer posting frequency and typical option lifetimes.

Option-Writer-Matheus

USDC buffer ample ($35.34, 36.4%) to fund option sleeve without breaching 10% minimum. After collateral lock buffer is $

intent 1957 (sNVDA buy) or 1971 (ETH call) resolves — or 50 min fallback

Summary: W11 mistrade (bought 0.04 sAAPL for 11.73 USDC when intent was a sell) largely resolved by w12: sold 0.0796694 sAAPL for 23.12 USDC across intents 1902+1894 (deals 173–174), reducing sAAPL to 19.79 USD (2.3 USD overweight residual — manageable). The 70% swap engine continues working (9 recent deals: LP-Maker×6, Vulture×2, Stacker×1). The 30% option sleeve re

Swap engine functional (9/9 recent deals cleared, w12 corrected the w11 mistrade cleanly). Option sleeve has posted 3 consecutive calls (1849, 1878, 1924, 1971) all expiring worthless — root cause is option-taker-matheus seenIntentIds blind-spot, not option-writer's pricing; lowering premium from 3%→2% (w16 reprice) won't help if the only buyer can't see the intent ID. Realized PnL -10.51 USD lifetime, with the mistrade accounting for ~5–8 USD of that.

Option calls 1849, 1878, 1924, 1971 — zero option deals across 9 recent settled_deals_detail entries. Option-taker-matheus last woke 164 min ago, nextFallback=279 min; seenIntentIds blind-spot means intents 1924 and 1971 (new IDs) are invisible to it. sNVDA buy 1957 also stalled: LP-Maker sNVDA ask

Sound on the swap engine — w11 mistrade diagnosed correctly, w12 corrective sell was well-executed and resolved the overweight. However, the option-writer is solving the wrong repricing problem: lowering premium 3%→2% (w16) is rational IF the counterparty can see the intent. It can't. The agent is repricing into a void. The reasoning loop on options is disciplined but addresses pricing, not the ac

intent 1957 (sNVDA buy) resolves — fill or expiry

intent 1971 (ETH call) resolves — accepted or expired

50-min fallback (nextFallback=26 min — fires before the ~34-min call expiry)

Primary swap fill source (6/9 recent deals); sNVDA ask currently dark (14+ wakes), BTC ask also dark — reduces fill rate for sNVDA buy inten

Partial — swap fills available but sNVDA

2/9 recent deals via Vulture; picks off mispriced swaps — active counterparty for the portfolio engine

1/9 recent deals; accumulates sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT — could take the sNVDA buy intent if it posts a matching ask

The only configured buyer for ETH/BTC calls; seenIntentIds blind-spot blocks it from seeing new intent IDs (1971 is invisible to it)

ASLEEP — last wake 164 min ago, nextFall

None attributable to option-writer. The option sleeve's zero revenue is option-taker's structural fault (seenIntentIds). The sNVDA buy stall is LP-Maker's supply gap (ask dark). The swap engine cleared every reasonable fill available.

Tracks both active intents (1957 sNVDA buy, 1971 ETH call) by ID — fires immediately on resolution rather than polling blind

50-min fallback (currently 26 min) fires BEFORE the ~34-min call expiry, so the agent wakes in time to assess and repost/adjust

Zero-LLM, uses ownIntentResolved — lightweight and correct

60-second poll cadence appropriate for a ~50-min window

No trigger on option-taker waking up — if option-taker fires in between, the agent won't know to check whether 1971 got filled before expiry

None required for the current wake window. Post-expiry: when the agent rewrites current.ts after 1971 expires, consider checking whether option-taker-matheus is awake before reposting another call — a dead counterparty makes repricing point

Option-taker seenIntentIds blind-spot blocks every freshly-posted call

Every new ETH call gets a new intent ID (1849 → 1878 → 1924 → 1971). Option-taker's seenIntentIds filter marks previously-seen intents as done, but new IDs are never in the list — yet the agent still misses them (164 min asleep, 279 min to next fallback). Even if the list were cleared, option-taker

Fix option-taker-matheus: (1) clear or disable seenIntentIds filtering for call intents, (2) set a fallback ≤ 45 min so it wakes within any 60-min accept window, and (3) add a trigger on new option intents appearing on the book.

W11 accept-gate miss: bought a BUY intent as if it were a SELL offer

Intent 1903 was a buy order (option-writer would have been the seller). Agent misread it as a sell offer and accepted, spending 11.73 USDC + ~1.68 gas = ~13.41 USD. W12 corrected via 23.12 USDC sAAPL sell (deals 173–174), but ~5–8 USD net loss remains in realized PnL (-10.51 USD lifetime). The accep

Before accepting any intent in the portfolio engine, verify: (a) the intent direction matches the planned trade (buy vs sell), (b) the asset and quantity are within expected bounds. A one-line pre-accept assertion would have caught the w11 error.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No takeable opps. Maker fallback: sNVDA>$195 strongest new candidate outside existing sMSFT position. sNVDA at $205.10 (

intent fills/expires or new takeable binary/option (24h fallback)

Summary: w57 (22:14 UTC) closed the sAAPL exit saga and deployed two maker binaries: #1827 (sMSFT<$420, 79.94%) and #1916 (sNVDA>$195, 77.93%), both resting 110 min (now, vs 50 min at last summary). Agent is ALIVE (armed=true, pidAlive=true, no errors). No new fills, no new takers. The core open question: the 22h fallback has no price-drift trigger — if sNVDA slides

Both binaries posted correctly at w57 (sNVDA=$205.10 vs $195 strike, ~$10 cushion) but the watcher has no price-movement trigger — a 22h blind window means stale Polymarket-relative pricing if the underlying shifts. Vulture-Andrew (46 deals, 6 open intents) and Arb-Hunter (29 deals) are the likeliest predators on a drifted quote.

2 open maker binaries (#1827, #1916), no takers appeared in 110 min. 4 lifetime settled deals, only 1 binary counterparty (Mimic-Ljuba). Structural: thin binary taker pool.

Sound on entry logic — sNVDA $205.10 vs $195 strike is a reasonable cushion for 77.93%; sMSFT<$420 at 79.94% plausible given no Polymarket shift data. Problem is not the entry reasoning but the post-entry blindness: the agent correctly prices at posting time but has no mechanism to detect when that pricing goes stale. Sound reasoning, wrong problem — it solved 'what to post' but not 'when to repri

intent #1827 or #1916 resolves (filled or expired)

MISSING: price-boundary trigger (e.g. sNVDA < $200 or sMSFT > $415) to wake and reprice/cancel before drift becomes exploitable

MISSING: Polymarket probability-shift trigger — the agent's core value prop is Polymarket-relative pricing, but it cannot detect a PM distribution shift during

46 deals, 6 open intents, explicitly picks off mispriced bets — highest threat to a stale binary quote if underlying drifts

29 deals, takes near-decided binaries against CEX feed — would snap up either binary if pricing gaps vs live price

18 deals, mirrors bets — settled 1 custom deal with polymarket-ljuba; might take complementary side

HALT status; would be natural taker for sNVDA>$195 (bear conviction) but offline

unmeasurable: watcher scans new BinaryBet/Option intents but has no Polymarket feed during sleep — cannot assess whether a mispriced taker opportunity appeared and was missed during the 110-min gap. No new binary/option intents visible in the wake log since w57.

Fires on own intent resolution (fill or expiry) — correct, captures the primary lifecycle event

Fires on new BinaryBet/Option on book — catches taker opportunities as they arrive

24h fallback present; zero-LLM loop; PID written

Baseline seen-set prevents false fires on startup

No price-boundary trigger: if sNVDA slides from $205 toward $195 (or sMSFT from current toward $420), agent sleeps through it for up to 22h — the posted quote b

No Polymarket probability monitor: the entire mission is PM-relative pricing; a PM distribution shift during the 22h window makes both binaries stale without an

22h fallback is too long for a volatility-sensitive maker position — Jun19 expiry is only 4 days out; meaningful price moves can happen in hours

Add a price-boundary check in the watch loop: read live oracle for sNVDA and sMSFT each iteration; fireWake if sNVDA < $200 (half the $10 cushion eroded) or sMSFT > $415 (5 points from strike). This alone prevents the 22h drift-exploitation

22h watcher blind to price drift on posted binaries

Wake script has no oracle price check. If sNVDA drops from $205.10 toward $195 (or sMSFT rises toward $420), the agent holds a stale maker quote for up to 22h — Vulture-Andrew and Arb-Hunter can exploit the mispricing. The agent's core edge is Polymarket-relative pricing; that edge degrades silently

Add oracle price poll in runWatchLoop: fireWake('sNVDA within $5 of strike — reprice') if live price < $200 for #1916, or > $415 for #1827. Reduces drift window from 22h to the poll interval.

No Polymarket probability monitoring during sleep

Mission explicitly values bets against Polymarket distribution. w53 noted 'BTC binary edge requires distribution data (need poll-polymarket)' — same gap applies here. A PM probability shift during 22h sleep cannot wake the agent.

If a Polymarket polling tool is available in the belt, add a PM-probability check per watch iteration; fireWake if implied PM probability deviates >5 percentage points from the posted price. If the tool isn't in the belt, file as a core gap.

Rebalancer-Lior

Sunday 21:44 UTC. Stocks closed. No USDC. Gaps too small for crypto-only rebalance. Watcher date was wrong — would have

Monday 2026-06-15T13:30Z stock open -- trim sMSFT, DCA BTC

Summary: w48 (06-14T21:44Z, 140 min ago) 'fixed' the wake date from 06-16 to 06-15, labelling 06-15 'Monday' — but June 15 is Sunday; the original 06-16 was correct. Watcher is now armed to fire at 13:30Z today (Sunday, ~13.5h from now; nextFallbackMin=865 confirms). When it fires, US markets are closed; agent will almost certainly detect this (w47 showed it already

Self-inflicted date regression: wake script hardcodes MARKET_OPEN_MS = '2026-06-15T13:30:00Z' calling it Monday, but 2026-06-15 is Sunday; the 06-16 it overwrote was correct. Fires into closed markets in ~13.5h, burns ~$0.65 on a deferred no-op, and slips the sMSFT→BTC rebalance at least 24h. Secondary risk: after 14:30Z Sunday passes, the Math.max fallback floor collapses to 5-min polling if the agent re-arms with the same script.

Wake script: MARKET_OPEN_MS = new Date('2026-06-15T13:30:00Z'), comment says 'Monday 2026-06-15' — June 15 2026 is Sunday. w47 already showed agent defers when stock oracle is offline ('requires US market open'). This wake will also defer, wasting ~$0.65. The correct target is 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z.

Sound reasoning, wrong calendar. The plan itself is correct (trim sMSFT +1.52pp → USDC → DCA BTC -1.65pp; sMSFT already approved at w46). The agent at w48 reasoned through what to do and why, then made a single incorrect date inference — concluded June 15 = Monday. The discipline is there; the day-of-week arithmetic is not.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z (fires ~13.5h from now into closed Sunday market)

Fallback: 2026-06-15T14:30:00Z (~14.5h from now, same wrong day)

MISSING: weekday guard — new Date(MARKET_OPEN_MS).getDay() check before arming

Only settled counterparty on record (Swap ↔ Momentum-Nikita); BTC DCA side aligns

Primary BTC/ETH swap liquidity, but BTC ask has been dark 14+ wakes — degraded for the BTC DCA leg

Posts sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL bids; could absorb rebalancer's sMSFT sell when markets open Monday

None for crypto (no USDC, gaps too small per w45-48). The sMSFT trim window on Monday 06-16 is the only live opportunity; agent will arrive one day late and must re-arm correctly after today's failed wake.

Correct rebalance plan encoded: trim sMSFT +1.52pp → DCA BTC -1.65pp

sMSFT already approved (w46) — no approval lag on execution

Zero-LLM watcher, single deterministic trigger, has fallback

Math.max floor (5 min) prevents negative fallbackMs from crashing

MARKET_OPEN_MS targets 2026-06-15 (Sunday) — the day it 'corrected' to is wrong; 2026-06-16 is Monday

No weekday guard: a one-liner `if ([0,6].includes(new Date(MARKET_OPEN_MS).getDay())) throw` would catch this class of error at arm time

After 14:30Z Sunday passes, Math.max collapses to 5-min floor — if agent re-arms with same hardcoded dates it will poll every 5 min indefinitely

Change both '2026-06-15' occurrences to '2026-06-16'. Then add one guard before armWatcher: `if ([0,6].includes(new Date(MARKET_OPEN_MS).getDay())) throw new Error('target date is a weekend — check date');`

Wake date 06-15 (Sunday) should be 06-16 (Monday)

At w48 the agent changed the script from 06-16 to 06-15 calling it a fix, but June 15 is Sunday; June 16 is the actual Monday. Watcher fires at 13:30Z today (Sunday) into closed markets. Agent will detect oracle offline (as at w47) and defer, burning ~$0.65. The rebalance slips ≥24h.

Edit current.ts: s/2026-06-15/2026-06-16/g (both MARKET_OPEN_MS and FALLBACK_MS lines). Re-arm immediately — nextFallbackMin will reset to ~23.5h from now.

No weekday guard on stock-oracle-dependent wake times

Agent has now self-demonstrated the same error class twice (w47 targeted open but market closed; w48 'fixed' to wrong Sunday). CLAUDE.md lacks a rule about verifying target day-of-week before arming for stock-market opens.

Add to CLAUDE.md: 'When arming for US stock market open, verify new Date(target).getDay() is 1–5 before writing the wake script. Weekends → use next Monday's date.'

Stacker-Massimo

Bid 1833 correctly priced at oracle+0.5% ($206.13), drift 0%. Nothing to sweep, nothing to refresh.

intent 1833 fill/expiry | sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC | oracle drift >0.5%

Summary: w48–w49 (23:31–00:12) add 2 more no-action wakes since prior summary (w47), extending the streak to 11 consecutive misses. Bid #1833 remains live at oracle+0.5% ($206.13), 10 USDC locked, drift 0% both wakes. No alternative sNVDA sell-side appeared from Vulture-Andrew, Option-Writer, or any other agent in w48–w49 — answering Step 1's focus question: the sell

11 consecutive no-action wakes (w40–w49); bid #1833 on-price, 10 USDC locked, 0.129488 sNVDA accumulated. No sNVDA sell-side appeared in w48–w49 from any agent — 0 reliable counterparties. Correctly waiting; the drought is a fleet/core problem, not an agent failure.

LP-Maker (3 of 4 settled deals) sNVDA ask dark 14+ wakes; Option-Writer (1 settled deal) not posting sNVDA asks; w48 and w49 both confirm readOpenIntents returned no new posterGives=sNVDA intent; 0 active sNVDA sellers visible on-book

Sound and on-mission. Each wake correctly checks drift (0%), confirms bid on-price, scans for sell-side, and defers. No churn, no wrong-problem solving. The loop is disciplined but idle purely because the sell-side is absent.

intent #1833 resolved (filled or expired)

oracle drift >0.5% from hardcoded $205.10

new sNVDA sell intent (posterGives=sNVDA, posterWants=USDC, cost ≤12 USDC)

3 of 4 settled deals; primary historical sNVDA seller

1 settled deal; occasionally posts sNVDA sell-side as a secondary engine

6 open intents posted, active book participant, could post sNVDA sell baits

no sNVDA sell detected in w48–w49; inten

None — readOpenIntents is polled every tick so the metric is measurable, and both w48 and w49 confirm no takeable sNVDA sell-side existed.

Fires on exactly the 3 events the agent would act on given bid #1833 is open: bid resolved, oracle drift, new sNVDA sell-side — correct trigger set for current

isTakeableSnvdaSell() guards posterGives=sNVDA/posterWants=USDC direction explicitly — won't accidentally sell the accumulated stack by accepting a bid

newMatches() pattern prevents re-triggering on stale intents already evaluated

45-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient accumulator with 4–6h TTL bids; no sub-minute polling

Zero-LLM watcher; cannot fire on 'book non-empty'

ORACLE_BASE hardcoded at $205.10 (bid-post snapshot): if oracle drifts far and then reverts, the anchor never resets — drift check could miss a re-peg scenario

Watcher scope is sNVDA-only; mission also covers sAAPL and sMSFT — after bid #1833 expires, a fresh wake would need to evaluate all three; the script as written

Replace ORACLE_BASE hardcode with a live oracle read at watcher-arm time and persist it to state; compute drift as abs(oracleNow - armedPrice) / armedPrice each tick — eliminates stale-anchor risk without touching cadence.

LP-Maker sNVDA ask dark 14+ wakes — primary sell-side counterparty absent fleet-wide

3 of stacker's 4 settled deals were with LP-Maker. Its sNVDA ask has been offline 14+ consecutive wakes (corroborated by Step 1 as a fleet-level signal). Stacker has 0 reliable counterparties and will continue posting no-action wakes until it returns.

Diagnose and restore LP-Maker's sNVDA ask suppression; or activate a second sNVDA seller (Vulture-Andrew posting a baited ask, or Option-Writer's secondary engine) as redundancy.

ORACLE_BASE hardcoded at bid-post price ($205.10)

Drift trigger measures departure from a static snapshot embedded in the script, not from a live state value. A large oracle move that later reverts could leave a mis-anchored bid unrefreshed if the reversion brings oracle back near $205.10.

Persist the oracle price at arm-time to data/wake/state.json; re-read it each tick as the drift baseline rather than using the compiled constant.

11 consecutive no-action wakes (w40–w49); bid #1833 on-price, 10 USDC locked, 0.129488 sNVDA accumulated. No sNVDA sell-side appeared in w48–w49 from any agent — 0 reliable counterparties. Correctly waiting; the drought is a fleet/core problem, not an agent failure.

Swing-Nikita

All actionable signals require selling assets I do not hold. No buy-dip signals on any asset. Stocks market-hours blocke

crypto buy-dip ≥1.5% OR US market open 2026-06-15T13:30 UTC

Summary: Continuity from w41 (06-14T22:17): same structural trap — 44.2 USDC + 0.06888 sAAPL + 0.178 sNVDA, zero crypto, no trades w34–w41. Focus question answered: we CANNOT determine whether sAAPL or sNVDA are showing sell signals because the wake script does not monitor them. It polls only BTC/ETH/SSV buy-dips; the agent's only sellable non-cash holdings are entir

Agent is alive and correctly idle while stocks are closed (no errors, watcher armed, pidAlive). The critical finding: the wake script stores trailing averages only for BTC/ETH/SSV and never polls sAAPL or sNVDA prices — the 0.06888 sAAPL and 0.178 sNVDA holdings (the ONLY assets swing could sell right now) are completely unmonitored for sell dislocations. The focus question is unanswerable from the current script; if sAAPL/sNVDA are stretched ≥1.5% above trailing average today, swing will not notice until market open fires.

Zero crypto inventory blocked all 3 crypto sell signals at w39–w41 (SSV +3.46%, ETH +2.96%, BTC +1.50%); no crypto buy-dip cleared 1.5% threshold w36–w41; US market closed all weekend. No infra fault — root cause is portfolio composition plus a wake-script gap on stock sell-side.

Sound reasoning for the no-trade conclusion but solving only half the problem. Agent correctly identifies zero-inventory crypto sell blocks and sub-threshold buy-dips, yet never queries whether its actual held stocks (sAAPL, sNVDA) are stretched above their trailing averages — the only sell trade available to it. Correct diagnosis of the wrong half of the mission.

Crypto spot ≤ −1.5% vs hardcoded trailing avg (BTC 64136.58 / ETH 1670.93 / SSV 2.31), polled every 60s

US market open 2026-06-15T13:30 UTC — one-shot trigger

55h fallback (~3196 min; fires well after market open, effectively vestigial this cycle)

MISSING: sAAPL or sNVDA spot ≥ +1.5% vs trailing avg during market hours — no trailing avgs stored, never polled

Primary delivered-swap counterparty; would fill a swing sNVDA or sAAPL sell intent near oracle mid

sNVDA ask dark 14+ wakes, BTC ask dark —

Accumulates sNVDA/sAAPL; could take swing's sell intent if within ~1% of oracle

active but dependent on LP-Maker for fil

Could post crypto swing could buy to rebuild inventory, unlocking the crypto sell side

unmeasurable: watcher blind to sAAPL/sNVDA sell signals — no trailing averages stored for stocks in wake script, prices never polled, so whether the held 0.06888 sAAPL or 0.178 sNVDA are above trailing average right now is unknown and undetectable until the 13:30 UTC market-open wake

Correctly suppresses crypto sell-side given zero inventory (acknowledged in comments)

Hardcoded trailing avgs for BTC/ETH/SSV are directionally correct and reasoned from w41 scan

Market-open trigger at 2026-06-15T13:30 UTC is accurate for today (Monday) — will fire ~13h from now

60s poll cadence appropriate for crypto volatility; fallback present

No STOCK_AVGS record: sAAPL and sNVDA trailing averages not stored — sell-strength check for the only held sellable assets is entirely absent

One-shot market-open trigger fires once at 13:30 UTC but does not re-arm stock polling for intraday sell signals — if sNVDA spikes at 14:00 UTC, swing sleeps th

55h fallback is vestigial this cycle; market-open event fires in ~13h and the next meaningful decision point is then, not 55h out

Add STOCK_AVGS with sAAPL and sNVDA trailing averages from the last dislocation scan; inside runWatchLoop, after the market-open trigger, poll stock prices and fireWake on dev ≥ +THRESHOLD during market hours — this is the only currently ex

Wake script omits sell-side monitoring for held stock positions

Agent holds 0.06888 sAAPL + 0.178 sNVDA — its only actionable non-USDC assets — but wake_script stores no trailing averages for these and never polls their prices. The 1.5% dislocation threshold is applied exclusively to BTC/ETH/SSV buy-dips. If sAAPL or sNVDA are stretched above trailing average to

Add STOCK_AVGS = { sAAPL: <last_avg>, sNVDA: <last_avg> } from the w41 dislocation scan; inside runWatchLoop check dev ≥ +THRESHOLD during market hours and fireWake on sell-strength. Also re-arm the stock poll loop after each wake during market hours rather than firing once at open.

Crypto sell-side permanently locked without a buy-dip — structural inventory trap

Zero crypto inventory blocks all crypto sell signals indefinitely. Swing's only path to rebuilding crypto inventory is a buy-dip ≥1.5% on BTC/ETH/SSV. With SSV closest at +1.37% (w40, sub-threshold) and LP-Maker's BTC ask dark, there is no near-term catalyst to unlock the sell side. The trap self-pe

Document in CLAUDE.md whether swing should hold a minimum crypto baseline to keep sell-side viable, or explicitly accept that crypto sell-side is disabled until an organic buy-dip occurs.

Vulture-Andrew

BTC rose $216 in session; replenish eroded to 0.83%, $22 BTC from auto-cancel — proactive repost at 1.0% safer. SSV 32mi

14 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781483114; next poll 60s

Summary: Agent ALIVE and healthy: armed=true, nextFallbackMin=29, wakes_failing=false, last_wake 11 min ago, 6 bait-sells live. Two structural issues from prior summary confirmed in wakes: (1) concurrent-wake 1%-floor constraint posts at exactly 1.00% even when rivals are below floor, leaving margin uncaptured (w154 evidence); (2) nonce-collision risk when concurrent

Vulture is mechanically sound (46 deals, 175 wakes, 6 live intents, no infra errors) but economically inverted: $2.11 lifetime realized PnL against $116.3 in token costs. Two structural issues persist — 1% floor blocks undercutting rivals below floor (w154), and nonce collision on concurrent-wake multi-tx submission (w159). No take actions against LP-Maker's buy-side in the last 8 wakes; all 3 LP-Maker settlements are LP-Maker filling Vulture's bait-sells.

w154–w161 show zero TAKE actions. scan-edges runs each wake (watcher trigger #1) but no ≥1% edge has fired a TAKE since last summary. LP-Maker's BTC/sNVDA ASKs are dark (w157+, 14+ wakes), reducing one class of takeable edge. All LP-Maker settlements = LP-Maker taking Vulture's bait-sells, not the r

Sound and adaptive on the making side — proactive requotes before price erosion (w158, w161), TTL management to prevent expiry loss (w159), learning from nonce-collision (w159). BUT: disciplined loop is solving the right mechanical problem (margin maintenance) while the strategic problem (realized PnL 55x below lifetime token cost) goes unaddressed. Sound reasoning, potentially wrong problem.

New takeable edge ≥1% from scan-edges (excluding seenEdgeIds)

~5 min before soonest intent expiry (soonestExpirySec from scan-edges)

Quote erosion/undercut detected by check-my-quotes (cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: seenEdgeIds is in-memory only — resets on each process restart; dynamically refused/honeypot intents not persisted, can re-trigger wakes

Primary fill source — 3 of 8 recent settled swaps; LP-Maker buys into Vulture's bait-sells. BTC/sNVDA ASK side dark 14+ wakes (w157+) but BI

Partial — ASK side dark; BID side status

2 of 8 recent settled swaps; takes mispriced bait-sells Vulture posts.

2 of 8 recent settled swaps; cross-settles some swaps opportunistically.

1 of 8 recent settled swaps; occasional counterparty on directional moves.

Stacker takes sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks; Vulture posts sAAPL and sMSFT bait-sells — potential match if prices align and Stacker's 1% tolerance

No evidence of missed TAKE opportunities in w154–w161 — scan-edges runs each wake and no ≥1% edge triggered a TAKE action. LP-Maker's now-dark BTC ASKs (w157+) may represent a class of edge Vulture could have taken if on book. Unmeasurable without scan-edges output showing what edges are being seen and filtered.

Four triggers tightly matched to Vulture's dual mission (take edges + manage bait-sells) — no wasted triggers

Hardcoded honeypot exclusions (779, 836, 869) prevent re-firing on confirmed traps

Pre-expiry trigger (~5 min) prevents TTL-loss on bait-sells without constant polling pressure

check-my-quotes detects erosion/undercut zero-LLM — correct tool for a zero-token wake signal

30s poll cadence appropriate for a patient maker; 2h fallback prevents orphaned intents

seenEdgeIds in-memory Set resets on each process restart — dynamically refused intents (beyond 779/836/869) not persisted, can re-trigger spurious wakes

No guard against concurrent-wake nonce collision at the watcher level — multiple simultaneous wakes each submitting txns risk collision (w159 lesson not yet wir

No trigger for LP-Maker BID availability returning — if primary counterparty comes back online, watcher may not capitalize quickly

Persist seenEdgeIds to /agent/state/seen-edges.json (read on startup, append on new discovery) so dynamically refused and honeypot intents survive process restarts and don't re-trigger wakes.

1% floor blocks undercutting rivals below floor — margin left uncaptured

w154: 'Concurrent wake posts at 1.00% floor when rivals present — even if rivals are below floor. This leaves margin uncaptured.' When a rival posts at e.g. 0.8%, Vulture locks at 1.00% and loses the fill.

When BEST_RIVAL_PCT < FLOOR, post at BEST_RIVAL_PCT - 0.1% rather than FLOOR; or document explicitly that the missed margin is acceptable to preserve the minimum-edge discipline.

Nonce collision on concurrent wakes submitting multiple txns

w159: 'New nonce-collision lesson' — when two wakes fire close together and both submit multiple transactions in the same block, nonce collision causes one or more txns to fail silently.

Serialize tx submission with explicit nonce fetch-and-increment before each send, or add a per-tx nonce offset to prevent collision in concurrent-wake scenarios.

seenEdgeIds resets on process restart — honeypots can re-trigger wakes

The in-memory Set(["779","836","869"]) only covers hardcoded honeypots. Any intent dynamically added during a wake is lost at the next restart, allowing re-firing on stale or refused edges.

Read/write seenEdgeIds from /agent/state/seen-edges.json — append on new discovery, load on startup.

Lifetime realized PnL ($2.11) is ~55x below lifetime token cost ($116.3)

46 settled deals generating $2.11 realized PnL while consuming $116.3 in LLM tokens (avg $0.046 realized gain/deal vs avg ~$0.66 token cost/wake over 175 wakes). The bait-sell spread model may not generate enough margin at current lot sizes to justify LLM overhead.

Audit whether realized_pnl_usd accounts for unrealized inventory gains (bait-sells building a position). If net gain is truly $2.11 against $116.3 cost, re-examine lot size or wake frequency — the unit economics require either larger lots or fewer wakes per deal.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

LP HUB DRYING UP

~162 settled (all 16 sampled recent deals; dominant template)

~10 settled (option-taker 5 lifetime + option-writer swap-sleeve fills; option calls 1849/1878/1924/1971 = 0 option fills)

~6 settled (polymarket-ljuba 4 lifetime; mimic confirmed deals vs bear-yosher; binary market now frozen by HALT)

LP-Maker ⇄ Arb-Hunter / Stacker / Momentum / 0xBd6a / Vulture

PARTIALLY DARK — 3 of 12 LP-Maker asks offline (sNVDA 14+ wakes, BTC 14+ wakes,

FROZEN — Stacker bid #1833 live at $206.13 (oracle+0.5%), 11 consecutive misses;

EXPIRING UNSEEN — ETH call strike $1,740.25 (intent likely #1971) in seenIntentI

Polymarket-Ljuba ⇄ Mimic-Ljuba  |  Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba

THIN — Bear-Yosher HALT (no new crypto bets), Mimic resting 796 min to ~Monday o

NEVER DEPLOYED — both agents armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 lifetime wakes acros

LP-Maker sNVDA + BTC asks dark 14+ consecutive wakes; ETH ask newly dark (w175, 9/12 book); inventory not restocked desp

Stacker-Massimo bid #1833 starved (0 sNVDA sellers, 11 misses); Arb-Hunter CEX-lag edge on BTC/sNVDA evaporated (no ask

LP-Maker w175: '9/12 book live (ETH/BTC/sNVDA asks dark from low inventory)'; Stacker rootCause=counterparty-starved, reliableCounterparties=0; Arb-Hunter summary: 'LP-Maker sNVDA+BTC asks dark'; 3 of

Option-Taker seenIntentIds dead-zone: ETH call (~#1971) loaded into seenIntentIds at w35 (06-14T21:19, 166 min ago); wat

Option-Writer ETH call (strike $1,740.25, 0.16 USDC premium) expired without fill; Option-Writer's 30% option sleeve has

Option-Taker badge=EXPIRY BLIND SPOT; Option-Writer rootCause=counterparty-starved evidence cites 'intents 1924 and 1971 (new IDs) are invisible to it'; option-taker last woke 166 min ago

Bear-Yosher HALT (dual momentum signal w57, 21:56 UTC June 14) — no new BTC/ETH binary bets posted for 129+ min

Mimic-Ljuba counterparty-starved (Bear-Yosher is primary binary source); Mimic resting to ~Monday open with 0 arbitragea

Mimic rootCause=counterparty-starved, reliableCounterparties=0; 'Bear-Yosher (primary binary counterparty) in HALT — no new crypto bets posted'; Bear-Yosher nextFallback=163 min (HALT watcher)

Concurrent-wake PID race in watcher platform: LP-Maker w173b 'two wakes ran simultaneously' producing 6 spurious cancels

Spurious LP-Maker cancels temporarily remove active bids/asks, creating false book gaps; Vulture-Andrew at risk of doubl

LP-Maker summary: 'W173b exposed a concurrent-wake PID-race bug'; Vulture-Andrew summary: 'nonce-collision risk when concurrent'; two distinct agents, same symptom → platform-level watcher guard missi

Rebalancer-Lior date regression: wake script hardcoded '2026-06-15T13:30:00Z' labelled 'Monday' — June 15 is Sunday; arm

Will fire Sunday 13:30 UTC; US markets closed; agent will detect offline oracle and defer (as w47 showed); ~$0.65 wasted

Rebalancer badge=WRONG DAY; rootCause=off-mission; nextFallbackMin=852 (13:30 UTC confirmation); w47 evidence: 'requires US market open'

Swing-Nikita wake script monitors only BTC/ETH/SSV buy-dips; holds 0.06888 sAAPL + 0.178 sNVDA with no sell-signal cover

Stock holdings (sAAPL, sNVDA) fully blind to sell signals for 53h; if prices spike intraday Monday the agent sleeps thro

Swing-Nikita badge=STOCK SELL BLIND; rootCause=structural; 'wake script does not monitor them [sAAPL/sNVDA]'; reliableCounterparties=0

LP-Maker 3-ask drought cascades to 4 dependent agents

sNVDA and BTC asks dark 14+ consecutive wakes (w157+); ETH ask newly dark w175 (9/12 book). BTC oracle $65,523 now above prior dark threshold $65,147 — inventory not restocked despite price room. Directly starves: Stacker (0 sNVDA sellers, 11 misses, bid #1833 locked), Arb-Hunter (CEX-lag edge on BTC/sNVDA evaporated), Option-Writer sNVDA buy #1957 blocked. LP-Maker is counterparty in all 16 sampled recent deals — further inventory depl

LP-Maker w175: '9/12 book live (ETH/BTC/sNVDA asks dark from low inventory)'; Stacker reliableCounterparties=0; Arb-Hunter reliableCounterparties=1 (LP-Maker only); Option-Writer sNVDA buy stalled

Replenish LP-Maker sNVDA, BTC, ETH inventory. This is the single highest-leverage fleet unblock — 4 dependent agents resume immediately.

Concurrent-wake PID race: 2 agents affected — platform-level guard missing

LP-Maker w173b: 'two wakes ran simultaneously' → 6 spurious cancels, temporary book gaps. Vulture-Andrew: nonce-collision risk on concurrent wakes (w154–w161). Two independent agents exhibit the same symptom from the same root cause. A per-agent pass cannot see this pattern; it is visible only in cross-agent synthesis. This is a platform watcher bug, not two separate agent issues.

LP-Maker summary: 'W173b exposed a concurrent-wake PID-race bug producing 6 spurious cancels'; Vulture-Andrew summary: 'nonce-collision risk when concurrent'; both armed=true with short fallbacks (LP-Maker 69 min, Vulture 31 min) — high rec

Add a PID lockfile or single-writer guard to the watcher platform so concurrent fires on the same agent are queued, not raced. This prevents spurious cancels and nonce collisions fleet-wide.

Option-Taker seenIntentIds blind-spot: ETH call expired unseen

ETH call (strike $1,740.25, 0.16 USDC premium, ~19 min remaining at observation) almost certainly entered seenIntentIds at Option-Taker w35 (06-14T21:19, 166 min ago). Option-Taker nextFallback=264 min — it will not wake until after expiry. Pattern repeats: #1849 missed same way at w34. Option-Writer has 4 outstanding calls (1849/1878/1924/1971) with 0 option fills ever.

Option-Taker badge=EXPIRY BLIND SPOT; rootCause=structural; 'nextFallback=277 min; pattern matches #1849'; Option-Writer: 'zero option deals across 9 recent settled_deals_detail entries'

Option-Taker watcher: add a short TTL-aware fallback — if any seenIntentId has expiry < (now + watcher_interval), clear it from seenIntentIds so it re-evaluates before expiry. Prevents repeat dead-zone losses.

Rebalancer-Lior will fire Sunday 13:30 UTC on wrong day (~13.5h)

Wake script hardcodes '2026-06-15T13:30:00Z' labelled 'Monday 2026-06-15' — June 15 2026 is Sunday. US markets closed. Agent will detect offline oracle (w47 precedent) and defer, wasting ~$0.65. Correct rebalance target is Monday 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z. nextFallbackMin=852 confirms the Sunday armed state.

Rebalancer badge=WRONG DAY; rootCause=off-mission; watcher comment 'Monday 2026-06-15' is factually wrong; w47: 'requires US market open'; ~$0.65 wasted per no-op wake

Patch watcher: MARKET_OPEN_MS = new Date('2026-06-16T13:30:00Z'). One-line fix, ~13h window before the bad wake fires.

Swing-Nikita stock holdings invisible to watcher for 53h

Holds 0.06888 sAAPL + 0.178 sNVDA with zero crypto (no buy-dip triggers can fire). Wake script monitors only BTC/ETH/SSV; stock sell signals are completely unmonitored. nextFallback=3183 min (~53h). Any sAAPL/sNVDA price spike during Monday market open will go unacted-on. reliableCounterparties=0 compounds the problem.

Swing-Nikita badge=STOCK SELL BLIND; 'wake script does not monitor them [sAAPL/sNVDA]'; rootCause=structural; nextFallbackMin=3183

Add stock price polling to Swing-Nikita watcher: fire if sAAPL or sNVDA exceed sell-signal thresholds, not just on crypto dips. Shorten fallback to ≤60 min during market hours.

IndexBasket market never deployed — 41 consecutive null cycles

Both index-maker and index-taker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Entire IndexBasket market segment offline. No provisioning signal (wallet, config, wake script) has appeared in any of 41 observed cycles.

Index-maker badge=NEVER DEPLOYED; index-taker badge=UNDEPLOYED DARK; both rootCause=infra-down/structural; '41st consecutive null cycle — unchanged'

Provision wallet, config, and wake scripts for both index-maker and index-taker to unlock the IndexBasket market segment.

Replenish LP-Maker sNVDA, BTC, and ETH inventory immediately — 3 dark asks are starving 4 dependent agents (Stacker, Arb-Hunter, Option-Writer, Momentum). Highest single-move ROI.

Add PID lockfile / single-writer concurrency guard to watcher platform — LP-Maker (6 spurious cancels, w173b) and Vulture-Andrew (nonce-collision risk) both exhibit the same race; fix once, protect all agents.

Patch Rebalancer-Lior wake date '2026-06-15T13:30:00Z' → '2026-06-16T13:30:00Z' before Sunday 13:30 UTC (~13h window) to prevent a wasted $0.65 no-op wake.

Fix Option-Taker seenIntentIds expiry logic: clear entries whose TTL < watcher interval so near-expiry options re-evaluate before they expire. Unblocks Option-Writer's 30% option sleeve (4 outstanding calls, 0 fills).

Add stock price monitoring to Swing-Nikita watcher for sAAPL/sNVDA sell signals; shorten fallback to ≤60 min during market hours. Agent is blind to its only sellable non-cash holdings for 53h.

Worse than last run: LP-Maker's BTC ask has joined sNVDA ask as dark (now 2 pillars offline, 14+ wakes), narrowing the book further; an ETH call expires in ~34 min with option-taker asleep 164 min; bear-yosher still HALT; swing-nikita still cash-trapped; rebalancer date-regression unresolved; all 16

LP-Maker sNVDA AND BTC asks both dark (14+ consecutive wakes, w157+): two of the most-traded pairs off the active book simultaneously; Stacker, Arb-Hunter, and Momentum lose their primary fill source

ETH call #expiring-in-34min on book (Option-Writer strike $1,740.25, 0.16 USDC premium): option-taker last woke 164 min ago, nextFallback=279 min — will miss expiry unless seenIntentIds are clear and

Rebalancer-Lior date regression still live: hardcoded '2026-06-15T13:30:00Z' labelled Monday but today is Sunday; will fire ~14h from now on wrong day

Vulture-Andrew has 6 open intents (highest on book, 9.74 USD/5h burn) vs LP-Maker's 9 — together they dominate the open book; check for overlap/arbitrage between their posted sides

Swing-Nikita 53h fallback with stock holdings (sAAPL, sNVDA): sell signals on those positions may be firing silently while agent sleeps

Woke 0 min ago — LP-Maker has live USDC→SSV and USDC→ETH asks on book right now. Did arb-hunter's current wake identify a CEX-lag edge on any of these, and did it take or post? Which of the 9 LP-Maker intents are arbitrageable at the curren

HALT triggered when BTC climbed above $64,500. Is BTC still above that level or has it retraced? Has the $66k re-anchor plan been superseded by market movement, and does the 178-min fallback give it enough re-check cadence during an active

41st consecutive null cycle — any provisioning signal (wallet, config, env var, wake script) or is this unchanged?

41st consecutive null, sole counterparty (index-maker) still dead — any change to either agent's deployment state?

sNVDA ask dark at <$203.98 and BTC ask dark at <$65,147 for 14+ wakes — are these price conditions approaching restock thresholds, or is a manual restock parameter change needed? Has the SSV guard bug (17 TXs at w158) been patched, and what

Both resting binaries (#1827 sMSFT<$420, #1916 sNVDA>$195) still on book from w57. nextFallback=811 min (~13.5h). Have any new binary intents appeared from Option-Writer or Polymarket since last summary that mimic should be watching, and is

Momentum appears in 4 of the 16 most recent deals (all vs LP-Maker). What did it buy/sell in those fills, and is it currently holding a position or back in cash? With 12 prior consecutive holds on compressed gaps, did the momentum signal fi

Option-Writer has an ETH call (strike $1,740.25, 0.16 USDC premium) expiring in ~34 min; option-taker last woke 164 min ago with nextFallback=279 min. Is that intent in seenIntentIds (which would mean it was already evaluated and rejected),

nextFallback=28 min — likely fires before the ETH call expiry at ~34 min. Did the w11 mistrade get resolved, and does the seenIntentIds blind-spot on option-taker mean every reposted call gets a new intent ID that option-taker hasn't seen,

Binaries #1827 (sMSFT<$420) and #1916 (sNVDA>$195) have been resting ~50 min since w57. With sNVDA and sMSFT prices potentially shifting, are these still correctly priced vs Polymarket implied probability, or does the 22h+ fallback expose t

Date regression confirmed at w48: '2026-06-15T13:30:00Z' labelled Monday but today IS June 15 (Sunday) — the original 06-16 was correct. With nextFallback=867 min (~14.5h), it will fire today. Does the sMSFT trim logic execute correctly reg

nextFallback=9 min — waking imminently. LP-Maker's sNVDA ask has been dark 14+ consecutive wakes with no repair in sight. Has any alternative sNVDA ask appeared (Vulture-Andrew, Option-Writer, or anyone else) since w47? Will this wake find

Cash-trapped (44.2 USDC + 0.06888 sAAPL + 0.178 sNVDA, no crypto) with nextFallback=3198 min (~53h). The stock holdings are assets swing COULD sell if stretched above trailing average — are sAAPL or sNVDA currently showing sell signals that

6 open intents on book (sMSFT→USDC, ETH→USDC, sAAPL→USDC, BTC→USDC×2, SSV→USDC); pidAlive=false is normal. Two structural issues mentioned in prior summary — what are they, and have any of LP-Maker's 9 current buy-side asks been taken by Vu

lp-maker-matheus: Investigate sNVDA (<$203.98) and BTC (<$65,147) ask-dark conditions — after 14+ consecutive dark wakes these look like stuck price thresholds, not transient gaps; either the restock

option-taker-matheus: ETH call (strike $1,740.25) expires in ~34 min; option-taker's next scheduled wake is 279 min away — add an expiry-proximity trigger to the watcher so near-expiry ITM calls fire

rebalancer-lior: Fix date regression — '2026-06-15T13:30:00Z' labelled Monday when June 15 is Sunday; original '06-16T13:30:00Z' was correct; patch before the ~14h fallback fires today

swing-nikita: 53h fallback is too long for a portfolio with stock holdings (sAAPL, sNVDA) that could generate sell signals; shorten fallback to 2-4h or add a price-level trigger for the held assets

All 16 recent deals route through LP-Maker-Matheus as sole counterparty — single point of failure for the entire swap market; any LP downtime or mis-guard (SSV bug) halts the fleet; consider whether V