account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

bestTake=null on both surfaces. 0 binary bets. 0 fundable swap edges ≥10bps. Only new intent requires token not held.

new intent >#1112, OR binary bet ≤30-min settlement w/ CEX taker decided, OR 30-min fallback

Summary: ALIVE — watcher armed=true/pidAlive=true, last wake 5 min ago (w173), fallback in 29 min. The Step-1 'armed=false' read was stale; current state is healthy. Now w173, still 11 settled deals — 7 consecutive waits (w166–w173). Both surfaces remain structurally blocked: binary surface dry (Bear-Yosher dark 452+ min, zero binary bets posted), swap surface oracle

Not crashed — fully armed with 29-min fallback. 7 consecutive waits (w166–w173, ~3 hrs) on two simultaneously blocked surfaces: 0 binary bets (Bear-Yosher + Vulture-Andrew both down) and oracle-above-CEX inversion killing all swap edges. HIGH_WATER advanced to 1093 (37 new intents) but none cleared arb threshold. PnL -$0.05 lifetime; token burn $1.23/5h is the real cost of waiting correctly.

Binary surface: 0 bets posted across w166–w173 — Bear-Yosher (primary binary poster) dark 452 min, Vulture-Andrew dark 253 min. Swap surface: oracle above CEX in every recent wake (w166 'mSSV sell-edge requires oracle ABOVE CEX, currently reversed'; w168 'oracle above CEX means no give-USDC edges';

Sound and solving the right problem. The agent correctly distinguishes surface-by-surface: binary miss is counterparty absence, swap miss is oracle-inversion direction. It checks CEX margin (≥0.5% bar), affordability, and approval status before each candidate. No churn — each wake advances HIGH_WATER and logs distinct conditions. The self-annotation at w173 ('clean wait — correct discipline') refl

New intent posted with intentId > HIGH_WATER=1093

Binary bet with ≤30-min settlement where cexTakerInMoney=true

30-min hard fallback (primary driver of repeat wakes when both surfaces are dry)

8 of 9 settled swap deals — primary and only reliable swap counterparty; alive but edges currently oracle-inversion blocked

Primary binary bet poster; arb-hunter-tom's binary surface depends on Bear posting near-expiry bets

crashed 452 min, armed=false/pidAlive=fa

Posts baited intents arb-hunter-tom could snipe; also binary taker

crashed 253 min, armed=false/pidAlive=fa

1 settled swap deal; posts DCA swaps that can be taker-positive when oracle aligns

alive but DCA lots below LP floor — curr

None verifiable. Binary surface had 0 bets on book across all 7 recent wakes — nothing to miss. Swap surface: oracle inversion blocked all give-USDC edges; no taker-positive intents existed per agent logs. HIGH_WATER 1056→1093 (37 new intents) but agent correctly logged each as taker-negative or outside mandate. No false negatives detectable from available data.

HIGH_WATER sentinel correctly scopes to genuinely new intents — avoids re-evaluating stale book entries on every 30-min fallback wake

mSSV-sell pre-filter in watcher (implied price ≥ CEX before fireWake) prevents wasting a full LLM wake on a structurally taker-negative intent

Binary margin guard (≥0.5% CEX margin) prevents marginal near-miss takes that don't cover latency risk

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a taker that needs to stay responsive without burning tokens on empty surfaces

No oracle-inversion guard in watcher loop: when oracle > CEX, swap edges are structurally blocked, but the watcher still fires on every new intent above HIGH_WA

Binary path is effectively dead with Bear-Yosher and Vulture-Andrew both crashed — watcher's binary check (cexTakerInMoney on existing bets) will keep returning

Add a one-liner oracle-inversion guard before fireWake on new swap intents: fetch SSV CEX price (already cached) and compare to the intent's implied rate — skip fire if oracle is inverted and no binary bets are near expiry. This targets the

Binary surface collapse — no poster fleet alive

Bear-Yosher (452 min dark) and Vulture-Andrew (253 min dark) are both crashed. Arb-hunter-tom's primary surface (near-decided binary latency takes) requires posters. With both down, binary flow is zero — arb-hunter-tom is structurally starved on its highest-edge surface.

Restart Bear-Yosher and Vulture-Andrew. Arb-hunter-tom cannot self-heal this — it's a fleet-level restart task.

Watcher fires into persistently inverted oracle — wasted wakes

7 consecutive wakes burned on swap intents that are taker-negative due to oracle > CEX. Each costs ~$0.58. The watcher has a mSSV-specific guard but not a general oracle-inversion guard. Estimated waste: 7 × $0.58 = ~$4 in avoidable wakes over ~3 hrs.

In the watcher loop, before fireWake on any new swap intent, fetch CEX price for the oracle asset and compare to implied rate. If oracle > CEX (inversion), log and skip fire — only fire when inversion clears or a binary bet appears.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

w40 explicitly logged 'Watcher died (PID 6802 gone)'; w41 recovery set a new watcher with 4h fallback but that process also died (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no w42). This is the second consecutive watcher death — not a logic fault, a platform/process-supervision gap. 17 settled deals all with Mimi

Intent 869 fill or expiry (no longer monitored — process dead)

ETH > $1,644.17 (+1.5% adverse) (not monitored)

BTC > $62,011.60 (+1.5% adverse) (not monitored)

Deal 75 near-expiry at 1781139624-300 = ~June 11 00:53 UTC (not monitored)

MISSING: 4h fallback (~15:17 UTC June 10) — should have fired, did not; process died before trigger

17/17 settled deals are Bear↔Mimic BinaryBets — the entire binary market is this pair. Mimic takes BELOW anchors nearly instantly (w36b: '79

Buys mispriced BinaryBets — could take Bear's BELOW anchors if priced right, but only 2 lifetime deals, rarely active.

Takes near-decided binaries — would take Bear's bets only when they're deep in-the-money near expiry, not fresh postings.

Fires on own intent resolution (fill or expiry) — correct for a maker maintaining exactly-one-resting invariant

Fires on new BinaryBet appearances using hash filter — mission-aligned taker trigger

Monitors ETH/BTC for +1.5% adverse move — matches the halt-on-persistent-climb mission clause

Deal 75 near-expiry anchor (5 min early) — proactive, prevents invariant gaps

4h fallback present; zero-LLM; cadence (~60s poll) appropriate for binary markets

The watcher process itself has no supervisor — when it dies (twice now: PID 6802 at w40, w41's successor before ~15:17 UTC), there is no auto-restart. The scrip

Watcher process dies with no auto-restart

Two consecutive watcher deaths (w40 PID 6802 gone; w41's successor dead before its 4h fallback at ~15:17 UTC). When the process exits, there is no supervisor to revive it. Bear has been dark 395 min. This same failure mode will affect any agent whose watcher process exits unexpectedly.

Implement a process supervisor (systemd, PM2, or a board-level watchdog) that detects pidAlive=false and auto-restarts the watcher. This is the single highest-leverage fix for the fleet — it unblocks Bear and prevents the same crash from silently halting other agents.

Bear anchor broken — 0 open intents on restart

Intent 869 is gone (0 open intents). On restart, the agent must immediately re-post the BELOW-strike BinaryBet anchor to restore the exactly-one-resting invariant before doing anything else.

On next wake, agent should detect open_intents=0, skip all other logic, and post anchor first. The w41 wake script already handles this (invariant check fires before taker logic) — just needs the process restarted.

Binary market supply at zero while Bear is down

Bear is the only active BinaryBet poster. With 10 pre-crash live deals resolving and no new postings, Mimic-Ljuba (the sole reliable counterparty, 17 deals) has nothing to take. Binary market will go dark completely once pre-crash inventory clears.

Restart Bear-Yosher immediately. Secondary: assess whether Polymarket-Ljuba or Arb-Hunter-Tom could post temporary BELOW anchors as a stop-gap (outside their current missions — fleet decision).

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 11th consecutive null cycle — state is byte-for-byte identical to runs 1–10: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, settled_deals=not-indexed. Zero delta across all 11 observation windows. The agent has never executed a single wake. The entire IndexBasket market (maker + taker both null) has n

Zero delta vs prior 10 runs on every observable dimension. No wake script, no watcher, no wakes, $0 spent. index-taker is identically null. The IndexBasket market has never had a single active participant across the full observation history — a fleet-level decision is required: deploy or formally retire.

wake_script_source=null means no watcher binary exists to arm; armed=false/pidAlive=false confirms no process ever started; 0 wakes across 11 cycles with null last_wake_min_ago means the agent has never been initialized, not merely crashed

N/A — no reasoning has ever occurred. Cannot assess reasoning quality for an agent that has never executed.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing can trigger a wake

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — no time-based recovery path

designed as the exclusive SHORT-side taker for index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents

also null — never deployed, same structu

unmeasurable — watcher blind to book (wake_script_source=null); no intents ever posted so no taker flow possible

wake_script_source=null — no script exists to evaluate

No watcher process has ever been initialized

Deploy a wake script before any other assessment is possible — current state makes all other wake-script criteria irrelevant.

index-maker never deployed — 11 cycles, zero state change

All observable fields (wake_script_source, armed, pidAlive, nextFallbackMin, wakes, tokens) have been null/zero/false across every observation run. This is not a crash loop or transient failure; the agent was never initialized. index-taker is in the identical state. The IndexBasket market has never

Fleet-level decision required: (1) complete deployment — write and arm a wake script, fund the agent, register it — or (2) formally retire both index-maker and index-taker and remove them from the fleet roster to stop polluting health metrics. No further observation cycles will yield new information

Null-state agents occupying fleet roster indefinitely

index-maker and index-taker have health=unknown and have never contributed data, yet they consume observer slots and distort fleet health reads. No SDK mechanism currently surfaces 'never-deployed' as a distinct state separate from 'crashed'.

Add a 'never-deployed' health class to the SDK when wake_script_source=null AND wakes=0 AND lifetime_tokens=0 — distinct from 'stuck' or 'crashed', routes to a deployment owner rather than an on-call responder.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 11th consecutive null cycle — zero delta from cycles 1-10. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No deployment artifact exists. Index-maker (its sole counterparty) remains health=unknown with 0 IndexBasket intents ever settled on-chain. Both sides of the dependency chain are permanently dark;

11 cycles, 0 wakes, $0 tokens, no wake script, no counterparty. Index-maker is equally dark (health=unknown, 0 IndexBasket intents on-chain). The entire IndexBasket dependency chain — maker publishes, taker audits and crosses — has never functioned. No delta since cycle 1.

wake_script_source=null (no watcher ever loaded); index-maker health=unknown, 0 IndexBasket settled deals in fleet roster; settled_deals_detail=[] for index-taker; both agents show 0 lifetime tokens

Not applicable — agent has never executed a single wake. No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake script deployed — agent has never armed

Sole intended counterparty — publishes LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to audit and short

Permanently dark: health=unknown, 0 deal

none — index-maker has posted 0 IndexBasket intents on-chain, so there has been nothing to take in 11 cycles

No wake script exists (wake_script_source=null) — agent is undeployed

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — agent cannot self-start

No armed watcher (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

N/A pending fleet write-off decision — deploying a watcher with no counterparty supply burns tokens for zero deal opportunity

IndexBasket market never launched — both maker and taker permanently dark

11 consecutive null cycles with zero delta. Index-maker (publisher) and index-taker (auditor/taker) are both undeployed. 0 IndexBasket intents ever settled on-chain. The market cannot clear with supply-side absent.

Fleet-level decision: either deploy index-maker first (supply precedes demand) and re-evaluate index-taker after maker posts ≥1 live intent, or formally write off the IndexBasket market and reallocate the agent slots. Do not deploy index-taker into a zero-supply book — it will burn tokens on audit l

11 cycles, 0 wakes, $0 tokens, no wake script, no counterparty. Index-maker is equally dark (health=unknown, 0 IndexBasket intents on-chain). The entire IndexBasket dependency chain — maker publishes, taker audits and crosses — has never functioned. No delta since cycle 1.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

sNVDA -0.51% triggers volTerm=25.5bps; δ=45.5bps; short inventory → skew ±15bps → δ_bid=30.5bps, δ_ask=60.5bps. sAAPL no

sNVDA/sAAPL ask expiry ~19:07 UTC | bid/ask price guards | new fillable intent (35min fallback)

w67: 'Concurrent sessions mutually cancelled each other's work, requiring full book rebuild. 10 total txns this wake. Gas ~$2.' w68: '#1012 SSV bid #1013 sAAPL bid #1014 sMSFT bid disappeared (concurrent session cancelled)'. w65: 'Concurrent session spawned duplicates requiring...'. Counterparties a

Price inversion guard: per-quote thresholds for SSV/ETH/BTC/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT bids and asks

Expiry guard: fires 5 min before #1023 sMSFT ask (1781107440 epoch)

New fillable swap intent matching HOLD set

30-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=20 remaining)

Most frequent filler (7+ deals) — latency arb on oracle lag exactly consumes LP quotes

8+ deals — takes mispriced LP quotes as part of its mandate

5+ deals — DCA swaps land directly on LP quotes; persistent buyer

5 settled deals — external wallet, reliable taker

Delivered swaps mission — could take LP quotes, but only 1 deal lifetime

Per-quote price guards (10 thresholds) fire before inversion, not after — LP cannot be picked off without a wake

Expiry guard fires 5 min early on soonest intent (#1023) — prevents silent book decay

New fillable intent scan with HOLD-set filter — responsive to taker demand

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a maker maintaining live quotes

pidAlive=false is correct: Node process exits after arming; daemon holds alarm

No guard for when ETH/BTC inventory recovers enough to post missing asks — LP stays at 10/12 silently until next fallback fires

Price guard thresholds are hardcoded to w68 quote prices — after a book rebuild (w67/w68 concurrent collision) the new quote IDs/prices are baked in, but stale

Concurrent session collisions causing book churn and gas waste

w67: full book rebuild, 10 txns, ~$2 gas. w68: 4 intended intents cancelled mid-flight by a parallel session. w65: duplicate spawned by ETH inversion guard firing while another session was active. The watcher fires a new Node process while the previous session's on-chain txns are still pending — the

SDK: add a session-lock (e.g. advisory file lock on /agent/data/wake/session.lock) so a new wake process exits immediately if a prior session is still running. The fallback will retry; the book stays stable.

ETH/BTC ask gap — no recovery trigger

ETH inventory $0.25, BTC $0.33 — both below posting threshold. LP correctly skips asks, but has no trigger to post them once inventory replenishes (e.g. after Arb-Hunter fills a bid). Gap can persist up to 30 min.

Add inventory-threshold guard in wake-script (see suggestedChange above). Threshold values should come from the agent's own posting-floor config, not magic numbers.

Hardcoded quote prices/IDs in wake-script become stale after rebuilds

Current wake-script bakes in w68 quote IDs (#1040, #1041, etc.) and their exact prices. After a concurrent-session rebuild (w67/w68), new IDs are posted at slightly different prices — the old thresholds may be off by a few bps until the next wake rewrites the script.

Minor: wake-script should derive inversion thresholds from a stored config file (e.g. /agent/data/wake/quotes.json written each wake) rather than inline constants, so a rebuild automatically updates them.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on empty board. One deliberate move per wake rule enforced. No high-edge taker on offer; no flow t

14 of 16 settled deals are BinaryBet↔Bear-Yosher; 1 custom↔Bear-Yosher; board has been empty of BinaryBets across wakes w55–w60 post-crash. option-writer-matheus (16 deals) posts Options not BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba (2 deals) posts small-shade binary but zero BinaryBet-template intents visible o

Intent #1088 filled or expired (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet templateHash match on open book (newMatches scan, 60s poll)

66-min fallback (calibrated to #1088 ~18:47 UTC expiry)

Only consistent BinaryBet poster; source of 14/16 Mimic deals

Posts Options (different template); Mimic's watcher filters for BinaryBet templateHash only — correct exclusion given mission

Mission includes 'make a small-shade binary only' — could post BinaryBet-template intents, but none visible on book this cycle

Takes near-decided binaries — could take Mimic's self-posted #1088 if it becomes near-decided; not a flow source for Mimic

Fires on ownIntentResolved for #1088 — correct: Mimic must act when its live exposure settles

Filters strictly by BinaryBet templateHash — no false fires on swaps or options

66-min fallback calibrated to #1088 expiry (~18:47 UTC) — tight, purposeful, not a generic poll

60s poll cadence is appropriate for binary bet flow (not sub-minute spam)

seenIds baseline pattern avoids firing on stale book state at startup

No trigger for new intents from polymarket-ljuba's binary-making leg — if ljuba posts a BinaryBet, the newMatches scan catches it, but there's no direct subscri

100% counterparty concentration on Bear-Yosher

14/16 deals are ↔Bear-Yosher. When Bear is down, Mimic's copy-trading engine has nothing to copy and degrades to self-posting directional bets — a different, unvalidated strategy. Net drawdown is $36.38 (-36% of $100 starting capital) across 16 deals with only $0.59 realized PnL, suggesting the mirr

Extend Mimic's CLAUDE.md to recognize polymarket-ljuba and option-writer-matheus as secondary binary flow sources; add logic to monitor their posted intents as copy targets when Bear is offline. Also review whether the $0.59 PnL / 16 deals win-rate is acceptable or signals systematic mispricing in t

Self-posting directional bets is a mission stretch

w61 self-originated a BTC-bear directional bet (#1088) when the board was empty. The mission is 'mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets' — not 'post original bets when flow is absent.' This is Mimic acting as a maker, not a copy-trader, without validated edge.

Add an explicit fallback policy to CLAUDE.md: if board is empty for N consecutive wakes, hold capital rather than self-post, OR gate self-posting on a stricter conviction threshold (e.g. ≥10pp edge, recent on-chain price momentum confirmation).

Binary bet flow collapses when Bear-Yosher is offline

Bear is the only consistent BinaryBet poster. Its crash leaves Mimic, arb-hunter-tom, and polymarket-ljuba with no binary flow to act on. 10 live Bear↔Mimic deals are resolving from pre-crash inventory — after they settle, the binary market is structurally frozen until Bear restarts.

Restart Bear-Yosher. If that's not immediate, incentivize polymarket-ljuba to increase its 'small-shade binary' posting frequency as a bridge supply — currently 2 lifetime deals is insufficient to sustain Mimic.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

1 settled deal lifetime (no detail available); SSV intent #745 failed pre-LP-recovery (illiquidity); intents #w12–w17 all no-action due to 2pp gap unmet. Market: crypto field declining together, no leadership separation across 6 wakes.

relative gap ≥2pp between any two assets (BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) vs. arm-time baseline

MISSING: rolling lookback window — baseline is fixed at watcher arm; over 4h+ runtime, recent momentum is diluted by early-session baseline drift. W16 logs 'bot

Primary fill-side for USDC→asset swaps; now live with 11 open intents. SSV intent #745 failed pre-recovery — fill path exists now if thresho

Also posts USDC→ETH/asset slices; could incidentally fill a momentum intent if directions align, but not a designed counterparty.

Live baseline captured at first poll (not hardcoded from prior wake) — correct for intraday momentum

Full 6-asset universe (BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) enables real leadership detection

Gracefully skips oracle failures rather than firing on incomplete data

60s polling cadence is appropriate — not sub-minute gaming, just momentum detection

4h fallback ensures the agent wakes even in flat markets

Static baseline (set once at arm-time, never refreshed): over a 4h+ watcher runtime, early-session moves absorb into the denominator and compress the apparent g

w16 agent log references 'both lookbacks' but w17 script has only one baseline — if the dual-lookback was intentional signal robustness, dropping it is a regres

Baseline staleness over 4h+ watcher runtime

The watcher captures `baseline` once at arm-time and never resets it. Over the 4h fallback window, early-session price moves become baked into the denominator, making recent relative momentum look smaller. A leadership signal that develops gradually over 2h may never hit 2pp vs. the 4h-old anchor.

Reset baseline every 60 min (timestamp-gated inside the poll loop). Preserve the first-poll live-anchor behavior for the initial reading.

Dual-lookback dropped between w16 and w17

W16 agent logs 'Edge threshold unmet on both lookbacks' — implying a short + long lookback. W17 watcher script has only a single baseline. If dual-lookback was intentional (short-term confirmation + medium-term trend), dropping it reduces signal quality. If it was buggy, the log is misleading.

Confirm whether the second lookback was deliberate; if so, restore it in the watcher script as a secondary returns array with a separate rolling baseline.

SSV inventory on LP-Maker unconfirmed

SSV intent #745 expired pre-LP-recovery. LP is now live but its 11 open intents are USDC/ETH/sNVDA-oriented. If LP doesn't hold SSV inventory, a new SSV momentum intent will expire again — and the agent has no other reliable fill counterparty for SSV.

Fleet-level: LP-Maker should periodically publish its asset inventory so momentum watchers can assess fill probability before posting; alternatively, momentum-nikita should check LP's open intents for the target asset before committing.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Cheap optionality: tight-to-the-money put with 24h tail, thin premium on a volatile stock (sNVDA). Probability of 0.20 d

All 3 settled deals and both new live deals (118, 119) are exclusively against option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). No other option writers active. If option-writer halts, supply drops to zero.

New audited Option intent detected (templateHash 0xb3d66f4b…, 60s poll)

nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (hardcoded 1781194956 — deal #118 expiry minus 5 min)

Sole option writer; confirmed alive post-drawdown-scare (intents #1075, #1090 both fresh sNVDA options, taken successfully)

Detects new audited Option intents via templateHash filter on every 60s poll — correct fit for a reactive taker mission

Settle-window trigger fires before expiry to allow timely settlement

23h fallback matches typical option expiry horizon — appropriate cadence for a patient single-take-per-wake agent

seenIntentIds baseline-on-first-poll pattern avoids spurious wakes on pre-existing intents

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to deal #118's expiry minus 5 min — after deal #118 settles, this condition fires on EVERY 60s poll indefinitely (now

No awareness of deal #119's later expiry (1781200212) — the settle-window trigger won't fire at the right time for #119

Hardcoded MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS will fire on every poll after deal #118 expires

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is a past-pointing constant once deal #118 settles (~23h from now). After that point, nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS is permanently true, causing a wake every 60s until the script is updated. Deal #119's expiry (1781200212) is not covered at all.

Compute min deal expiry dynamically from open deals at each poll iteration; fire if within 5 min of the earliest unsettled expiry.

Portfolio-blind trade evaluation — straddle built without acknowledgment

w25 took an sNVDA call (strike $203.69) and w26 took an sNVDA put (strike $201.75) 49 min later. Each was evaluated independently as 'cheap optionality.' The agent holds a de-facto straddle with ~$10 collateral at risk on sNVDA. If this is intentional, the reasoning should state it; if not, the agen

In the wake prompt, surface current open option positions (underlying, direction, strike) so the LLM can reason about aggregate exposure before taking a new option on the same underlying.

Mission description says ETH/BTC but agent is taking sNVDA options

Mission: 'Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options.' Both live deals and all recent takes are sNVDA. Option-writer writes stock options too — if the taker is meant to take anything option-writer posts, the mission is stale and misleading.

Update CLAUDE.md mission to reflect actual scope (ETH/BTC + stock options written by option-writer-matheus) so reasoning prompts align with real behavior.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

All portfolio holdings on-target (drift <5% tolerance). Market quiet (0–1% daily moves). Engine 1 paused due to sustaine

Engine 1 paused: 7 consecutive option intents (most recently 951 at 14:00) unfilled — no option buyers present (option-taker-matheus is the only known taker, 1 settled custom deal). Engine 2 rotation swaps depend on LP fills: 0x431/0x432 posted but not yet settled; LP has 11 open intents and is heal

Intent 0x431 (sAAPL sell 0.052 → 14.7 USDC) resolves (filled or expired)

Intent 0x432 (sMSFT buy 0.0425 → 17 USDC) resolves (filled or expired)

90-min fallback (fires in ~10 min from last data)

Primary swap counterparty; 87 settled deals, 11 open intents live — should be able to fill 0x431/0x432 if prices overlap

Only known option buyer (1 custom settled deal); Engine 1 paused so no options to take right now

Posts swap intents in overlapping tokens (USDC→ETH active), could cross with rotation swaps incidentally

Watches specific intent IDs (0x431, 0x432) — not book-level noise, targeted to the agent's live positions

Fires on resolution of EITHER intent (OR logic) — correct, agent needs to reconcile as soon as any rotation leg settles

90-min fallback for reconciliation/repricing — appropriate cadence for a patient contrarian rotator

Zero-LLM, no sub-minute polling (60s interval is the floor, acceptable)

readIntent returning falsy is ambiguous: a network error or a not-found both satisfy !intent0x431, risking a spurious wake on transient RPC failure rather than

Wake number / timestamp ordering anomaly at w37

w37 is logged at 13:35, chronologically before w36 (14:00), despite a higher wake number. w37 content (Engine 1 pause decision) and w36 content (option post citing 'recovery') appear to conflict in sequence. Could be a concurrent wake race or a timestamp bug in the wake logger.

Audit wake scheduling: check if two watcher instances were running simultaneously around 13:35–14:02; confirm wake numbers are assigned atomically at fire time, not at script start.

Engine 1 indefinitely paused — 0 options revenue

7+ consecutive ETH/BTC option intents unfilled; Engine 1 self-paused correctly, but no re-enable condition is defined in the current watcher. Recovery to -10.85% drawdown and crypto vol up 0.75%+ (per w36) didn't sustain option buyer interest.

Define a concrete re-enable trigger for Engine 1: e.g., drawdown < -5% AND 1+ option-taker open intents visible on book. Without a re-enable path, Engine 1 stays paused indefinitely even if conditions improve.

readIntent null-check insufficient for reliable resolution detection

The watcher fires when !readIntent result — which is true for both 'intent settled/expired' and 'RPC error/timeout'. A transient node error triggers a spurious LLM wake and burns ~$0.15.

SDK readIntent should return a typed status ('open'|'settled'|'expired'|'error') so watchers can distinguish resolution from failure; or document the null contract explicitly so agent scripts can handle it.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

sAAPL stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75) hit; new binary/option intent; fallback Jun11 20:00 UTC

Summary: Still holding 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 entry (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / Jun12 20:00 UTC). No trigger has fired in 292 min since w26 — price remains mid-range. w26 proactively approved sAAPL allowance (tx 0xf145…) ensuring exit swap can execute — operationally correct. Binary/option primary mission remains dormant: with bear-yosher (452 min crashed), v

polymarket-ljuba is operating correctly — swap position held without trigger breach, approval preemptively secured, watcher live. The mission gap is entirely supply-side: 3 binary/option-posting counterparties are simultaneously crashed, leaving the watcher with nothing new to evaluate. This is a fleet failure, not an agent failure.

settled_deals=2 (lifetime), open_intents=0; bear-yosher (primary binary poster, 452 min crashed), vulture-andrew (253 min crashed), arb-hunter-tom (36 min crashed) — the three agents who would post takeable binary/option intents are all offline simultaneously; w19–w25 all log 'no mispriced opportuni

Sound, solving the right problem. The agent correctly distinguishes its two modes — (1) valuing mispriced binary/option intents against Polymarket distribution, and (2) managing the open sAAPL swap position. Wakes w19–w25 accurately report no opportunities rather than manufacturing action. Edge erosion commentary (1.5%→3.1%→1.5% across w22–w25) is inconsistent in direction — true convergence shoul

sAAPL oracle price <= $277.34 (stop, -4%)

sAAPL oracle price >= $303.75 (forward, +4.8%)

sAAPL horizon expiry (1781294400 = Jun12 20:00 UTC)

New binary or option intent appears in open book

Fallback: Jun11 20:00 UTC (1781208000, ~25h) — to assess exit maker candidates 24h before expiry

MISSING: early-warning trigger when price enters ~1–2% of stop/forward, giving agent lead time to pre-stage exit before trigger is breached

primary binary poster — BTC/ETH down bets below market are exactly what polymarket-ljuba would value against Polymarket distribution

CRASHED 452 min, armed=false/pidAlive=fa

posts baited/sharp binaries that polymarket-ljuba could value as near-decided

CRASHED 253 min, armed=false/pidAlive=fa

takes near-decided binaries but also occasionally posts; fast CEX feed could surface binary intents

CRASHED 36 min, armed=false/pidAlive=fal

mirrors recent BinaryBets and posts its own — could generate takeable binary intents against Polymarket distribution

alive, deals=16 — the only surviving bin

writes ETH/BTC/stock options — the other half of polymarket-ljuba's valuation mission

alive, nextFallbackMin=17 at last orient

Unmeasurable for binary/option valuation — watcher correctly monitors for new intents, but with bear-yosher, vulture-andrew, and arb-hunter-tom all crashed, no new binary/option intents have materialized for the agent to evaluate. mimic-ljuba (alive, 16 deals) is the only remaining binary source; whether it has posted anything since w26 cannot be determined from this data but the watcher would hav

Monitors all three exit conditions for sAAPL swap: stop, forward, and horizon expiry — exact triggers for this position

Tertiary trigger on new binary/option intents directly serves the primary mission (valuing new flow against Polymarket)

New-intent detection is delta-based (lastWakeBets set) — will not re-fire on stale intents, preventing thrash

Fallback at Jun11 20:00 UTC (24h before expiry) gives agent time to source exit liquidity before forced settlement

Zero LLM, 60s poll — appropriate cadence for price monitoring without burning tokens

Hardcoded fallback floor of 4h (Math.max) prevents a negative-delay edge case if fallback timestamp already passed

No proximity warning: watcher fires only AT trigger, not approaching it — if price drifts to $279 the agent gets no pre-alert to stage an exit swap

Edge erosion inconsistency (1.5%→3.1%→1.5%) in wake logs suggests the LLM body may be recalculating distribution edge rather than reading a stable state value —

Horizon stored in state.json and re-read each loop iteration adds an avoidable fs.readFileSync per 60s poll — minor but noisy

Add a proximity band check: if sAAPL price is within 1.5% of stop ($277.34→$281.50) or forward ($303.75→$299.50), fireWake with a 'price approaching trigger' label — gives the agent a wake to pre-stage exit liquidity rather than only reacti

Binary supply collapsed — 3 counterparties simultaneously crashed

bear-yosher (452 min), vulture-andrew (253 min), arb-hunter-tom (36 min) are all offline. mimic-ljuba is the only surviving binary poster. polymarket-ljuba's primary mission is valuation-against-Polymarket — with no new binary/option intents being posted, there is nothing to evaluate. This is not th

Restart bear-yosher and vulture-andrew; their crash root causes are separate but the combined effect is binary market shutdown. Even one recovery restores flow for polymarket-ljuba to act on.

No proximity-trigger before stop/forward breach

Watcher fires exactly at $277.34 / $303.75 — no lead time. If price breaches quickly and no exit swap maker is live, the agent may be forced to take a worse fill or wait for horizon.

Add ~1.5% proximity bands (≤$281.50 or ≥$299.50) as an early-warning fireWake in the watcher loop.

Edge erosion inconsistency in wake logs

w22→1.5%, w23→1.5%, w24→3.1%, w25→1.5% — true distribution convergence toward expiry should be monotonically decreasing toward 0%, not oscillating. Suggests either oracle price is bouncing around entry, or the edge calculation in the agent body is unstable.

Audit state.json after next wake: confirm edge is stored from a consistent formula and not re-derived each wake from a different oracle snapshot.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Pivot from exact-oracle posts to premium-tolerant: LP charges 0.43-1.56% on crypto. Post BTC at +1.56% to make fill attr

#1105 BTC DCA resolves (~19:49 UTC) or LP sells BTC, fallback 20:30 UTC

Summary: Lot-size bug NOT fixed through at least w37 (#1053: 7 USDC BTC, will have expired) and w38 (#1089: 4 USDC ETH — regressed further below the 12 USDC LP floor). Agent is now iterating on oracle-premium tolerance (w39 posted #1105 BTC at +1.56% premium) instead of the actual blocker. Root diagnosis remains wrong: LP non-fill is a lot-size floor rejection, not a

5+ consecutive BTC DCA failures; lot size regressed from 7 USDC (w37 #1053) to 4 USDC (w38 #1089 ETH) — moving in the wrong direction. LP-Maker's 12 USDC floor is never updated in config. W39 targets oracle premium (+1.56%) which is a secondary concern at best; if #1105 is also sub-12 USDC it will expire regardless of pricing. Agent is otherwise healthy (13 settled deals, sAAPL leg working) — this is a single config line blocking the crypto DCA legs.

#1053 (7 USDC, w37, expired), #1089 (4 USDC ETH, w38, almost certainly expired), #831 and #887 (prior run, 7 USDC each, expired) — LP-Maker minimum floor is 12 USDC; all BTC/ETH lots posted below floor; no lot-size correction applied across 5+ wakes; agent's settled deals are all on other legs (sAAP

Disciplined loop solving the wrong problem. Agent correctly identified LP non-fill pattern and correctly pivoted (oracle premium at w39), but the diagnosis is wrong: LP's minimum lot-size floor (~12 USDC) is the rejection cause, not oracle pricing. The oracle-premium fix (w39, +1.56%) is valid secondary tuning but won't unblock a 7 USDC intent regardless of price. Agent's w38 regression to 4 USDC

ownIntentResolved('#1105') — fill or expiry of live BTC DCA intent

newMatches: LP posting mBTC-for-sale intent (favorable take opportunity)

fallback 20:30 UTC (~69 min from last wake)

sole settled counterparty for all crypto swap legs (4 of 5 recent settled deals); but enforces 12 USDC minimum lot — rejects every sub-12 BT

1 settled deal with rebalancer; could take favorable swaps opportunistically, but is currently crashed (armed=false/pidAlive=false)

None in the take direction — agent correctly waits for LP flow. The missed opportunity is structural: 5 consecutive intents posted at sub-floor lot sizes that LP cannot accept regardless of pricing or timing. Each wake burns ~0.14 USD in tokens ($1.09 last wake alone) to re-post an intent that is structurally doomed.

Watches ownIntentResolved('#1105') — fires immediately on fill OR expiry, no wasted wait

Also monitors LP BTC-for-sale flow (isBtcOffer) — correct for a DCA agent that can take favorable swaps

60s poll cadence appropriate for a patient DCA agent (not sub-minute)

Explicit UTC fallback (20:30) with hard floor of 5 min — zero-LLM, clean

Wake-script is correct; the bug is upstream in CLAUDE.md/config — lot_size is never read from a validated floor constraint before posting

No wake-script change needed. Fix is in agent config: encode LP_MIN_LOT_USDC=12 in CLAUDE.md and validate every intent's give-amount against it before posting. This one line unblocks all future BTC and ETH DCA legs.

BTC/ETH lot size below LP-Maker 12 USDC floor — 5+ wakes unresolved

Agent posts 7 USDC (#1053 w37) and 4 USDC (#1089 w38) intents that LP structurally cannot fill. Lot size regressed at w38. Agent has 13 settled deals and is otherwise functional — the sAAPL leg (e.g. #963) works fine because USDC lot is presumably above floor. Only the BTC/ETH DCA legs are broken.

Add LP_MIN_LOT_USDC=12 to CLAUDE.md constraints and check give-amount >= 12 before any crypto swap intent post. Raise BTC lot to 13-15 USDC and ETH lot to 13-15 USDC to give LP headroom.

W38 regression: lot size went from 7 USDC to 4 USDC (wrong direction)

ETH pivot at w38 posted 4 USDC — smaller than the already-failing 7 USDC BTC lots. This suggests the agent's reasoning loop has no persistent memory of the floor constraint; each wake re-derives the lot size from portfolio gap arithmetic without a floor guard.

Same fix as above; the floor guard eliminates both the 7 USDC and 4 USDC failure modes in one change.

Token burn rate unsustainable for zero-progress wakes

$1.09 USD last wake (w39) on a wake that posted a structurally-doomed intent. Lifetime: $1.40 total tokens for 13 settled deals (~$0.11/deal) but recent wakes are all near-zero-progress token burns. 44 wakes with 39 repeat-wakes and 0.6% of pool spent in 5h.

Fixing the lot-size restores deal velocity and amortizes token cost. If lot-size fix is delayed, add a guard: skip posting if prior same-asset intent is still live (agent partially does this at w35/w36 but logic is inconsistent).

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Pre-market window; CLAUDE.md enforces 09:30–16:00 ET only. No fills possible now by design. 2 settled deals both with LP-Maker-Matheus confirm the path clears at open.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) via 30-second poll loop

fallback at 14:00 UTC (open + 30 min) if poll misses

Both settled deals were LP-Maker fills; LP has live sNVDA quote (12 USDC lot) and is confirmed able to fill Stacker's 0.50 USDC slices

Fires exactly at epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) — the only moment Stacker is allowed to act

30-second poll cadence is appropriate: lightweight, zero-LLM, no book dependency

Fallback at open+30 min (14:00 UTC) is a sensible safety net; nextFallbackMin=129 confirms it resolves to ~14:00 UTC from current ~11:51 UTC

No book-watching needed for a pure DCA mission — correctly omitted

fallbackMs when already past open evaluates to 30 min from invocation time, which is correct but implicit — a comment would prevent future confusion

LP lot-size headroom shrinks as sNVDA price rises

LP posts 12 USDC lots; Stacker posts 0.50 USDC. Confirmed fills show LP accepts sub-lot today, but if LP tightens minimums or oracle price moves, 0.50 USDC may become un-fillable. Currently 9.00 USDC / 18 wakes remaining.

Monitor: if next fill at 13:30 fails despite LP live, check whether LP minimum crossed 0.50 USDC threshold and adjust slice size in CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Dip deepened -2.18% vs -1.92% last wake — sustained, real signal across 3 wakes. 3rd DCA slice. Sized 20 USDC (20% of $1

sNVDA buy-dip intent 0x045e resolves or 2h fallback

Summary: w21 (17:43) fired on real −1.75% sNVDA dislocation, posted 0x437 (18 USDC → 0.089 sNVDA at $202.28). w22 (18:44, 6 min ago) DCA'd as dip deepened to −1.92%, approved sNVDA, and posted 0x448 (18 USDC → 0.089 sNVDA at $202.17). Watcher correctly re-armed on 0x448 with 118 min fallback. open_intents=1 confirms 0x437 resolved (filled or expired) before w22; LP-M

36 USDC deployed in two 18-USDC DCA slices into a −1.92% sNVDA dislocation; 0x437 resolved before w22 (open_intents=1 confirms), watcher now live on 0x448 with 118 min fallback. LP-Maker is the only counterparty and is rate-compatible — structural fill risk is low while LP-Maker stays healthy.

All 4 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus exclusively; no other swap counterparties are active. LP-Maker is currently ok/healthy, so single-counterparty risk is latent, not acute.

Sound and on-mission. The agent blocked 8 consecutive wakes correctly (sell-strength signals with no position, or dislocation below 1.5% threshold). When a real signal appeared it fired, then DCA'd when the signal deepened — textbook swing logic. Not churning.

ownIntentResolved(0x448) fires watcher early

MISSING: no early-fire if dislocation deepens further mid-watch — acceptable for swing-trader cadence but means a −3%+ move won't accelerate the next wake

LP quotes ~$202.02/sNVDA; swing-nikita asks $202.17 — LP fills at better-than-ask, profitable for LP. All 4 prior settled deals via LP.

None — 8 no-trade wakes were correct blocks (no position to sell, or sub-threshold dip). Fired correctly on first actionable buy-dip signal.

Watches ownIntentResolved for the latest posted intent — correct post-posting behavior

2h fallback (118 min) is appropriate for a swing-trader; not over-polling

Zero LLM in watcher loop; pid-file written at startup

Hardcoded single intent hash (0x448) — if two intents were ever open simultaneously, prior intent resolution would go undetected; harmless now (open_intents=1)

No urgent change. If multi-slice DCA into the same dislocation becomes a pattern, generalize the watcher to scan all open intents for resolution rather than hardcoding the latest hash.

0x437 outcome not logged at w22

w22 reasoning posts 0x448 without stating whether 0x437 was filled or expired. open_intents=1 implies 0x437 resolved, but the audit trail is silent on which outcome occurred.

At wake start, agent should read 0x437 status and log 'filled by LP-Maker' or 'expired unfilled' before posting the next slice — minor hygiene, aids post-hoc PnL attribution.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

985 eroded to 0.22%; 989 SSV sell drifted to 2.29% vs 1% target (rival at 0.49%); 948/949 expiring in 13-14 min — re-quo

18 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781103961; next poll 60s

Summary: Prior summary: bait sells 874/875/876 open post-LP-recovery; LP confirmed as rebalance-buy counterparty (deals 98/99, +$0.28). Since last summary: w62–w67 show the agent actively cancelled and replaced the entire bait suite (new suite: 987 sAAPL-sell 0.99%, 988 sAAPL-buy 1.01%, 1001 sNVDA, 948 BTC-sell, 949 ETH-sell, etc. live at w67/14:36). Agent crashed at

Vulture crashed 255 min ago (w67, 14:36) with armed=false/pidAlive=false. Its final 9-intent bait suite has expired completely (open_intents=0). The agent had 38 deals (all swaps ↔ LP-Maker) but realized PnL is -$2.19 — token burn ($5.97 / 5h, 4.2% of pool) is eating into what slim edge exists. No directional takers ever filled a bait sell; bait fills require momentum-nikita or swing-nikita to be active, and those agents are thin (1 and 4 deals respectively).

Process crash (armed=false/pidAlive=false) is the immediate blocker. Upstream: all 38 settled deals are swaps ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus only — LP is a neutral maker and will not take vulture's bait sells (confirmed in prior summary and consistent with zero bait-sell fills across 38 deals). Bait sells 874/8

Sound execution on a structural mismatch. The cancel-and-repost hygiene loops (w62–w67: 3–4 cancels + fresh posts per wake) are disciplined and on-mission, but they're solving for quote freshness while the underlying problem is absent directional takers. The agent is correctly doing what its playbook says; the playbook cannot manufacture counterparties that don't exist. 40/71 repeat wakes (56%) dr

new takeable edge ≥1% (excluding pre-seeded honeypots 779, 836, 869)

~5 min before soonest intent expiry (pre-expiry TTL guard)

quote erosion/undercut detected by check-my-quotes (cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: process-level restart / self-heal on crash — watcher exited without rearming

Sole proven counterparty — 38/38 settled deals are swaps ↔ LP; rebalance buys fill reliably when LP is live. Will NOT take vulture's bait se

Could take sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA bait sells if momentum signal aligns, but only 1 settled deal — extremely thin taker activity.

Could take bait sells on dislocation fades; 4 settled deals — marginally more active than momentum, but not proven on vulture's book.

Could take near-decided binary intents; also crashed (36 min, armed=false/pidAlive=false).

Bear is a taker of binaries, not a taker of swap bait sells; also crashed 452 min.

Unmeasurable post-crash: watcher blind to book since 14:36. Pre-crash (w61–w67), the agent reported 'zero takeable edges ≥1%' across every wake — no missed fills logged. The bait sells produced zero fills across their full lives, consistent with no directional takers in market.

Four distinct fire conditions all mission-relevant: new edge, pre-expiry guard, quote erosion, 2h fallback — matches vulture's reactive/opportunistic profile

30s poll is zero-LLM and cheap; honeypot pre-seeding (779, 836, 869) prevents re-firing on known traps

Pre-expiry trigger (~5 min before soonest expiry) prevents silent TTL drain

check-my-quotes integration catches erosion/undercut without an agent wake

No self-restart / process watchdog — watcher exited at 14:36 with no rearming; fallbackMs=2h is only useful if the process survives that long

30s poll + cancelCmds check fires wakes on minor quote drift (56% repeat rate); a 60–90s poll with a wider erosion threshold would halve token burn with negligi

Add a platform-level process supervisor (e.g. systemd unit or SDK-level watchdog) that restarts the watcher process on exit — the script logic is sound but the process is a single point of failure. This is a core fix, not agent-level.

No process supervisor — watcher crash is permanent

armed=false/pidAlive=false for 255 min. The 2h fallback only works if the Node process survives; on abnormal exit, there is no restart mechanism. This same failure pattern is simultaneous across arb-hunter-tom and bear-yosher — three agents down at once points to a shared platform gap, not agent-spe

Add a systemd unit or SDK-level supervisor that auto-restarts any watcher process on exit with exponential backoff. All three crashed agents would self-recover.

Bait sells structurally starved — no directional takers

0/38 settled deals are bait-sell fills. LP-Maker (sole active counterparty) is a neutral maker and will not take directional bait sells. momentum-nikita (1 deal) and swing-nikita (4 deals) are the only viable takers and are both thin. Bait-sell edge is being priced correctly but into a vacuum.

Once restarted, bias the bait book toward swaps LP-Maker will fill (rebalance buys near oracle mid) rather than directional sells — these have a proven fill rate. Revisit bait sell sizing/premium only when momentum/swing become more active.

High quote-churn token burn (56% repeat wakes)

40/71 wakes are repeat quote-hygiene wakes driven by minor erosion triggers. At $5.97/5h (4.2% of pool), burn rate exceeds deal edge on bait sells. The 30s poll + check-my-quotes fires on drift that often self-corrects.

Widen the cancel threshold slightly (e.g. fire only when erosion > 0.3% below target, not any cancelCmd) and increase poll to 60s to reduce churn wakes by ~30% without materially affecting fill latency.

LP HUB ALONE, BINARY FROZEN

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Arb-Hunter-Tom, Swing-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Vulture-Andrew†}

Active but hub-dependent — LP posts 14 of 18 target quotes; Vulture-Andrew offli

FROZEN — Bear-Yosher crashed 395 min ago; 0 new BinaryBet intents posted since;

Active and recovering — drawdown -10.85% (from -19.26%); straddle live (deal #11

NEVER DEPLOYED — both agents null wake scripts, 0 deals, 0 lifetime tokens acros

Bear-Yosher crashed (armed=false/pidAlive=false, 395 min dark, second consecutive PID death)

Binary market entirely frozen; Mimic-Ljuba board-empty across wakes w55–w60 with 0 takeable BinaryBet intents; Polymarke

Bear's 17 settled deals were all BinaryBet↔Mimic-Ljuba; 0 BinaryBet intents on current open book (15 open = 14 LP swaps + 1 Rebalancer swap + 1 external Perpetual); Mimic badge 'BEAR-STARVED, SELF-POS

Vulture-Andrew crashed (armed=false/pidAlive=false, 253 min dark)

Fresh bait suite (intents 987/988/1001/948/949, posted at w67/14:36) live on-chain but unwatched and will expire; bait-s

armed=false/pidAlive=false; all 38 vulture deals were Swap↔LP-Maker; deals 98/99 confirmed LP as rebalance-buy counterparty at +$0.28 PnL — that flow now stopped

Rebalancer-lior BTC/ETH lot sizes (4–7 USDC) below LP-Maker's 12 USDC minimum fill floor

Every BTC/ETH DCA intent expires unfilled; agent misdiagnoses as oracle-premium problem and iterates on price tolerance

Intents #1053 (7 USDC, expired), #1089 (4 USDC ETH, expired), #831/#887 (7 USDC, prior run, expired); LP floor 12 USDC confirmed; w39 posted #1105 BTC at +1.56% premium — wrong variable; sAAPL/sNVDA l

LP-Maker-Matheus is sole active swap hub for the entire fleet

All 4 active swap-dependent agents (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Swing-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo) carry reliableCounte

LP: 86 settled deals; swing-nikita 4 deals all ↔ LP; stacker-massimo 2 deals all ↔ LP; arb-hunter-tom 11 deals all ↔ LP; rebalancer settled legs all ↔ LP

LP-Maker concurrent session bug (multiple wake processes posting overlapping intents)

Periodic book gaps: SSV bid #1012, sAAPL bid #1013, sMSFT bid #1014 cancelled at w68; full book rebuild required at w65/

w67: 'Concurrent sessions mutually cancelled each other's work, requiring full book rebuild. 10 total txns this wake. Gas ~$2'; w68: '#1012 SSV bid #1013 sAAPL bid #1014 sMSFT bid disappeared (concurr

Arb-Hunter-Tom swap surface oracle persistently above CEX

0 give-USDC swap arb edges available across w166–w173 (7 consecutive no-action wakes); agent correctly waiting but struc

w166 'mSSV sell-edge requires oracle ABOVE CEX, currently reversed'; w168 'oracle above CEX means no give-USDC edges'; 11 lifetime settled deals, 0 since surfaces closed

Binary market frozen — Bear-Yosher crash kills entire BinaryBet template

Bear-Yosher (sole BinaryBet maker, 17 settled deals) crashed 395 min ago in its second consecutive PID death (w40 killed PID 6802; recovery also died). 0 new BinaryBet intents on the book. Mimic-Ljuba board-empty across 6 wakes. Polymarket-Ljuba binary mission dormant 292 min. BinaryBet was 13.5% of settled deal volume — now zero new flow.

armed=false/pidAlive=false; open book: 0 BinaryBet intents; Mimic wakes w55–w60 log 'edge floor ≥3pp unmet / board empty'; 16 pre-crash bets live but oracle-settling without new writes

Restart bear-yosher AND implement process supervision (systemd/supervisord) — this is the second consecutive watcher death; manual restart alone will repeat within hours

Vulture-Andrew crashed with live bait suite unmonitored

Vulture-Andrew crashed 253 min ago immediately after posting its most recent bait suite (intents 987/988/1001/948/949 at w67/14:36). These intents are on-chain and will expire unfilled. All 38 settled deals were Swap↔LP-Maker; LP rebalance-buy flow (confirmed via deals 98/99, +$0.28 PnL) has fully stopped.

armed=false/pidAlive=false; bait suite posted w67/14:36 then process died; open book shows no bait-sell fills; 38 prior deals all ↔ LP-Maker

Restart vulture-andrew; shared crash pattern with bear-yosher (both second consecutive PID deaths) points to platform-level process supervision gap — prioritize supervisor install over individual agent restarts

Index market never deployed — both agents null across 11 cycles

Index-maker and index-taker both have wake_script_source=null, armed=false, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, and 0 settled IndexBasket deals across 11 consecutive observer cycles. Zero delta across all 11 windows. This is a missing initialization, not a crash or recovery problem.

wake_script_source=null (both agents); 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens (both); settled_deals=[] (both); 11 cycles of byte-for-byte identical null state

Deploy wake scripts for both index-maker and index-taker — requires initialization from scratch, not a restart

Rebalancer-lior iterating on oracle premium — root cause is lot size

5+ consecutive wakes posting BTC/ETH DCA lots (4–7 USDC) below LP-Maker's 12 USDC fill floor. Every intent expires. Agent's w39 response was to increase oracle-premium tolerance to +1.56% on intent #1105 — the wrong variable. sAAPL/sNVDA legs settle correctly because their lots exceed the floor. This is a single-line config fix that has been missed for 4+ cycles.

#1053 (7 USDC BTC, expired), #1089 (4 USDC ETH, expired), #831/#887 (7 USDC, prior run, expired); LP confirmed 12 USDC floor; #1105 posted at +1.56% premium still below floor in lot size

Set BTC and ETH lot sizes to ≥12 USDC in rebalancer-lior's CLAUDE.md — one config line, immediate fix

LP-Maker concurrent session collisions — book gaps and gas waste

Multiple concurrent wake processes are posting overlapping intents and cancelling each other's work. At w65/w67/w68: full book rebuilds required, 10 txns per collision wake vs expected ~4, ~$2 excess gas, and quote gaps (ETH ask, BTC ask currently missing). LP's 86 settled deals represent strong health, but gas overhead compounds at current frequency.

w67: '10 total txns this wake. Gas ~$2' (rebuild); w68: '#1012 SSV #1013 sAAPL #1014 sMSFT disappeared (concurrent session cancelled)'; current book: ETH ask and BTC ask absent ($0.25 and $0.50 revenue gaps)

Add exclusive lock or session token to LP-Maker's Node watcher to prevent concurrent processes from posting overlapping intent sets

Stacker-massimo epoch passed — status ambiguous (completed or crashed silently)

Stacker's target epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) has passed. Watcher is now armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. It is unclear whether the agent fired, executed its DCA, and completed cleanly, or whether it crashed before executing. Portfolio at last read: 0.004928 sNVDA + 9.00 USDC free.

armed=false/pidAlive=false post-epoch; prior state had nextFallbackMin=129 at ~11:51 UTC; orient: 'unclear if it executed and completed or crashed silently'; 2 prior settled deals both ↔ LP-Maker

Check stacker-massimo on-chain activity since 13:30 UTC — if no DCA executed, restart; if executed and done, mark complete

Install process supervisor (systemd unit or supervisord config) for all watcher daemons — bear-yosher and vulture-andrew have each died twice consecutively; the fleet cannot self-recover from PID deaths without automatic restart; this is the single highest-leverage platform fix t

Restart bear-yosher and vulture-andrew immediately — binary market has been frozen 395 min and bait-sell strategy dark 253 min; downstream agents mimic-ljuba, polymarket-ljuba, and arb-hunter-tom are all counterparty-starved as a direct consequence

Fix rebalancer-lior BTC/ETH lot sizes to ≥12 USDC in CLAUDE.md — a one-line config fix that has been missed for 5+ wakes while the agent burns tokens iterating on oracle premium (wrong variable)

Fix LP-Maker concurrent session collision bug — add exclusive lock to Node watcher; current collisions add ~$2 gas per wake, erase fresh quotes, and leave the book with persistent gaps (ETH ask, BTC ask missing now)

Deploy index-maker and index-taker wake scripts — the IndexBasket template has 0 settled deals across 11 observer cycles because both agents were never initialized; this is new capacity, not a recovery task

Worse vs last run — vulture-andrew now confirmed crashed (253 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false) joining bear-yosher (452 min) and arb-hunter-tom (36 min); three agents simultaneously down compresses swap + arb + binary capacity to LP-Maker alone. Bear's 16 pre-crash BinaryBet intents are still r

3 agents crashed simultaneously: arb-hunter-tom (36 min, armed=false/pidAlive=false), vulture-andrew (253 min, armed=false/pidAlive=false), bear-yosher (452 min, armed=false/pidAlive=false) — swap arb

Rebalancer-lior: 4th consecutive BTC DCA failure — 7 USDC lot is below LP-Maker's 12 USDC floor; trivial config fix being missed for 4+ wakes

Stacker-massimo unarmed 302 min (armed=false/pidAlive=false) — epoch 1781098200 (~13:30 UTC) has long passed; unclear if it executed and completed or crashed silently

Bear's pre-crash BinaryBet intents (16 Bear↔Mimic 'live') are the only binary flow remaining — funnel shows 124 settled from 1102 posted (11.3%); binary conversion zeroes out once these clear

Option-writer drawdown recovery: was -19.26% at w35, -10.85% at w38 (107 min ago) with nextFallbackMin=17 — next wake imminent, current drawdown and Engine 1 restart status unknown

armed=false/pidAlive=false with last wake only 36 min ago — is this a clean exit after finding no edges, or a watcher crash? Did the binary surface or oracle-inversion condition change in the 36 min window, and does anything in the book rig

452 min dark, confirmed crashed — the recent 'Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba live' deals are pre-crash bets still resolving; how many of Bear's original bets remain live vs settled, and is there any self-restart path or does binary origination n

11th consecutive null cycle — any delta whatsoever vs prior 10: wake_script_source, armed, deals, tokens? If still identically null, the deployment is permanently blocked and needs an explicit fleet-level decision.

11th consecutive null cycle — any delta vs prior 10? With index-maker also permanently dark, confirm both sides of the IndexBasket dependency chain remain broken and flag for fleet-level write-off.

9 quotes live, armed=true/nextFallbackMin=45 — did LP fill swing-nikita's 18 USDC → 0.089 sNVDA intent (57m left on book, rate ~$202.25/sNVDA vs LP's 0.0594 sNVDA→12 USDC quote at ~$201.35)? Are the ETH ask and BTC ask gaps from prior summa

nextFallbackMin=6 means it wakes in minutes — with Bear's pre-crash bets still 'live' but thinning, did Mimic find any new takeable binary flow this cycle or is it forced into pure self-origination? What is the self-originated bet count and

armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=179, last wake 306 min ago — the prior-identified single stale baseline (set 4h+ ago at arm-time, never rolled) is now 5h+ stale; has SSV maintained leadership or has the gap closed/inverted since th

took deals 118 (sNVDA call) and 119 (sNVDA put) since last summary; option-writer wakes in ~17 min — is the taker's watcher correctly polling for new option intents from option-writer, and are the two sNVDA positions (call+put) creating a s

nextFallbackMin=17 — wakes imminently; drawdown was -10.85% at w38 (107 min ago); has it resumed Engine 1 (contrarian stock/crypto buys) or is it still halted, and what is the current book value vs the -20% kill limit?

holding sAAPL 0.085722 @ $290.79 entry (stop $277.34 / target $303.75) for 290 min since last wake; nextFallbackMin=1511 means ~25h until fallback — has price moved toward either trigger, and with Bear crashed and binary board nearly dark,

4th consecutive BTC DCA failure at 7 USDC lot (LP minimum is 12 USDC) — did wake w24+ correct the lot size or post yet another 7 USDC intent that will expire unfilled? If still 7 USDC, what is blocking the agent from updating its own config

armed=false/pidAlive=false, 302 min dark — epoch 1781098200 (~13:30 UTC) fired ~4.5h ago; prior had nextFallbackMin=129 at ~11:51 UTC, so the alarm should have fired at ~13:56 UTC; did stacker execute a wake and complete (2 prior deals with

posted intent 0x437 (18 USDC → 0.089 sNVDA) 4 min ago with 57m remaining; watcher is armed/live watching for resolution — has LP-Maker taken it yet (LP has a 12 USDC→0.0594 sNVDA quote at slightly different rate), and does the watcher corre

crashed 253 min ago (armed=false/pidAlive=false); bait sells 874 sAAPL 1%, 875 sMSFT 1%, 876 SSV 2.21% were open at last summary — have any of these filled, expired, or are they still live? What is needed to restart, and are LP-Maker's curr

Restart bear-yosher immediately — 452 min dark, sole binary originator; once its 16 pre-crash bets clear, binary market goes fully dark

Restart vulture-andrew — 253 min dark, highest deal count (38) and burn ($6.63/5h); check if bait sells 874/875/876 are still live or expired before restarting

Fix rebalancer-lior BTC DCA lot size: raise from 7 USDC to ≥12 USDC to clear LP-Maker's minimum floor — 4 consecutive expiries is a config bug, not a market problem

Investigate stacker-massimo: confirm whether epoch 1781098200 fired and completed or the agent crashed silently 302 min ago — if crashed, check logs and restart

Restart arb-hunter-tom if binary surface reopens (Bear restart) or oracle inversion clears — 36 min dark is recoverable but binary dependency means it's idle until Bear is back

IndexBasket deployment (index-maker + index-taker) has been null for 11 consecutive cycles — fleet-level decision needed: deploy or formally retire both agents