Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary bet has CEX taker side in-money. No swap edge with fundable matching intent. SSV +10bps is at the 10bps floor

new intent >#756 or bet #756 in 30-min window + CEX BTC ≥$63,817.50, or 30-min fallback

Summary: Agent is ARMED and actively hunting (103 wakes, fallback 30 min, pidAlive=true). Reasoning remains sound: w97–w104 show disciplined margin/expiry/in-money checks, no loops. Zero fills in last 8 wakes (2 settled / 103 = 1.9% fill rate) because LP-Maker-Matheus offline (primary counterparty), binaries thin (no near-decided bets posted), and CEX-oracle lag mini

Tom executes correctly but has nowhere to hunt. LP-Maker-Matheus offline blocks swap access (primary fallback gone); binaries thin with no near-decided arbs visible in last 8 wakes; only reliable counterparty (Vulture-Andrew) is maxed at 28 deals. Fill rate 1.9% is sustainable only if LP returns online and binary volume increases.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 681m (primary swap source), Vulture-Andrew at hard ceiling (28 deals, 0 open intents), binary book thin (w97–w104 all report 'no bet near-decided' or 'no CEX taker side in-money'). Swap #745 unfundable (Tom has 2 SSV, needs 25 mSSV).

Sound and on-mission. Recent wakes show clean logic: w97–w104 consistently check for in-money binaries (CEX vs strike, 30–1800 sec expiry), fundable swaps (≥10bps edge, portfolio-backed), no loops or re-derivation. Agent correctly filters unprofitable trades. NOT solving the wrong problem — it's waiting for conditions that currently don't exist.

New intent > #756 (fires when new swap posted)

Binary bet in 30–1800 sec to expiry, CEX in-money for taker, ≥0.5% margin

MISSING: pre-filter new intents to Swap template only (currently fires on all intents, including binaries posted by other agents — irrelevant to Tom's on-read b

Deep swap liquidity; primary fallback source (snipe stale swaps)

OFFLINE 681m (core armWatcher promise-dr

Takes mispriced swaps/bets; 2 settled deals with Tom already

None observable. Book is thin; no near-decided binaries posted, no fundable swap edges ≥10bps. Swap #745 unfundable due to portfolio constraint (Tom holds 2 SSV, needs 25 mSSV minimum). The market has no valid taker side for Tom right now.

Fires on new swaps > HIGH_WATER (intent sequence check guards against old intents)

Binary bet logic correct: taker in-money check (isAbove logic flipped), expiry window 30–1800 sec, live CEX fetch (BTC/ETH/SSV), margin threshold 0.5%

Fallback 30 min is patient; no sub-minute polling

Feed-mismatch guard: fetches CEX directly, compares to strike; oracle lag detection via this gap

New intent trigger fires on all intents, not just Swaps — e.g., binaries posted by other agents fire the watcher unnecessarily. Tom hunts near-decided binaries

No pre-check for counterparty state (e.g., is LP online?, is Vulture maxed?). Wake-handler must validate, but watcher could avoid firing if no taker exists. How

Add `templateHash === SWAP_HASH` filter to the new-intent trigger. Binaries posted by other agents are irrelevant; Tom's only new-intent action is sniping fresh swaps. This removes false-wake spam and keeps the watcher pure.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline; armWatcher promise-drop bug blocks swap access

LP-Maker-Matheus (primary counterparty for swaps) down 681m. Step 1 identifies core armWatcher promise-drop bug as root cause. Tom's fallback (snipe stale resting swaps from LP) is blocked. No swap edges available since LP offline.

Fix armWatcher promise-drop in SDK so LP re-arms and resumes posting swaps. This is the highest-leverage fix for Tom's fill rate.

Binary book thin; oracle lag minimal or unobservable

Tom's primary mission (take near-decided binaries where CEX has moved but oracle hasn't) is starved. w97–w104 all report 'no binary bet has CEX taker side in-money', suggesting either oracle is synced to CEX tightly or binaries are not being posted. 0 fills in 8 consecutive wakes.

Audit whether oracle lag exists and is observable at >0.5% margins. If oracle is fully synced, Tom's arb window is closed and the mission may no longer be viable. If binaries exist but are thin, encourage other agents to post more.

Watcher fires on non-swap new intents; false wake spam

New-intent trigger fires on ANY intent > HIGH_WATER, including binaries. Tom hunts near-decided binaries on-read (via the 30-min fallback), not via watcher. Binaries posted by other agents are irrelevant and waste wakes.

Filter new-intent trigger to only fire on Swap template (templateHash === SWAP_HASH). Keep the fallback for on-read binary checks. Reduces false wakes and keeps watcher focused on relevant events.

Bear-Yosher

Intent 746 expired unfilled; myOpenIntents=0 so must repost standing bear anchor. BTC 3.56% below strike — solid cushion

intent 756 fill/expiry OR deal 74 near-expiry OR price adverse OR new binary OR 4h

Summary: Mission executing correctly (crypto-down conviction via BinaryBets, 13 settled all BELOW), but execution broken by watcher race condition + snapshot bug. W29b & w30 fired simultaneously on same intent-fill (06-10 04:09), posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets — mission violation (needs exactly one resting bet). Snapshot.myOpenIntents is broken (third documented in

Bear-yosher's directional bet strategy is sound, but watcher race condition (w29b + w30 simultaneous fire) posts duplicate intents and snapshot.myOpenIntents bug (3rd incident) prevents correct open-intent detection. Fix: core armWatcher de-dup + agent replace snapshot check with on-chain state. Current state: 60% repeat-wake churn (33/55 wakes), -$0.36 PnL, mission violated (multiple resting bets instead of one).

Watcher race condition (core SDK): Intent 742 fill at 04:05 triggered w29b + w30 simultaneously at 04:09. Wake logs show 'Wake 29b and wake 30 both ran simultaneously (triggered by same intent-fill)'. This posted deals 82 and 83 within seconds, violating mission rule 'exactly one resting BTC-BELOW b

Agent is solving the right problem (crypto-down directional conviction), but the watcher is broken. The wake script logic itself is sound (checks price moves, bet expiry, new binaries), but the simultaneous fire from armWatcher + the broken snapshot check create duplicate posts. This is not re-derivation churn — this is execution failure, not reasoning failure.

MISSING: 'do I have exactly one resting bet?' check before posting new bet (watcher fires on new binary without validating mission constraint)

9 of 10 recent settled deals; both betting crypto-down (BTC/ETH BELOW). Mimic has 12 deals total, reliable taker.

Misprices binaries; currently at hard ceiling (28 deals, 0 open intents), unlikely to take more.

Primary liquidity hub; would swap tech-basket components at oracle-fair rates. OFFLINE 681m.

1 swap settled (deals detail); contrarian to bear-yosher's crypto-down conviction. OFFLINE 783m.

Open intent (1 current) expiring unfilled — intents 743, 746 both expired unfilled in recent wakes. No aligned takers except Mimic-Ljuba, who is the only reliable counterparty. Fleet hub outages (LP-Maker, Option-Writer offline) have collapsed diversification paths. Vulture at hard ceiling. Cannot measure if new opportunities are visible to watcher because watcher is blind to 'is my bet already re

Fires on specific intent resolution (Intent 756), not generic 'book non-empty'

Monitors bet expiry with 5min window (Deal 74)

Tracks price adverse moves (ETH/BTC >+1.5%)

4h fallback ensures minimum wake cadence

No check for 'do I already have exactly one resting bet?' before posting new bet. Watcher fires on new binary without validating mission constraint, causing dup

Uses hardcoded price thresholds ($1,652.46, $62,269) instead of dynamic math (current price + margin %)

Race condition: new-binary check in runWatchLoop does not de-dup against simultaneous fires. No mutex or event dedup in armWatcher.

Add mission-constraint check before posting: if myOpenIntents count === 1, skip posting new binary bets. Replace snapshot.myOpenIntents (broken, 3rd incident) with: compare agent's USDC in wallet vs locked state to infer resting intent coun

armWatcher race condition: simultaneous Intent-fill fires

Intent 742 fill at 06-10 04:05 triggered both w29b (04:05) and w30 (04:09) to fire independently, each posting a new BinaryBet. Wake logs: 'Wake 29b and wake 30 both ran simultaneously (triggered by same intent-fill)'. Result: deals 82 AND 83 posted within seconds, violating mission 'exactly one res

armWatcher must de-dup identical event triggers or queue simultaneous fires into a single wakeUp call. Add event-fire sequencing: if intent X just resolved, suppress duplicate fires from runWatchLoop for 60s.

snapshot.myOpenIntents bug (3rd documented incident)

W28 log explicitly: 'snapshot.myOpenIntents=[] is a known bug (third incident)'. Agent cannot detect its own open intents, cannot prevent duplicate posts. Fallback used: 'compare wallet USDC to state.json value', but this is manual and error-prone.

Replace snapshot.myOpenIntents with on-chain read or wallet state: if (agent.USDC_wallet === state.json.USDC_wallet) then no resting intent; else resting intent exists. Audit all snapshot.*OpenIntents usage across fleet.

Counterparty starvation + directional clustering

Bear-yosher has only one reliable counterparty (Mimic-Ljuba, 9/10 recent deals). Both agents bet crypto-down (BinaryBets BELOW). LP-Maker-Matheus (primary liquidity hub, would diversify via swaps) offline 681m. Result: unfilled intents (743, 746), cannot diversify direction exposure.

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus online to unblock swap paths. Monitor Mimic-Ljuba concentration: may need to cap bear-yosher's BELOW bets if Mimic is saturated. Consider adding crypto-up counterparty (e.g., long ETH Index Basket) to diversify.

Wake script missing mission pre-check

Watcher fires on 'new aligned binary on book' without checking 'do I already have exactly one resting bet?'. When multiple wakes fire simultaneously (race condition), both post new bets, violating mission rule.

Before posting new binary bet, check: if count(myOpenIntents) >= 1, skip posting. Use on-chain state, not snapshot.

Index-Maker

Summary: Index-Maker remains completely non-functional — 0 wakes, 0 intents, wake_script_source=null. Bootstrap failure: the wake script was never deployed to the agent in the first place. This is distinct from the fleet's armWatcher promise-drop (which would show armed=true but pidAlive=false); this shows armed=false (never armed). Same blocker as last run, still bl

Index-Maker never woke (0 wakes) because the wake script was never deployed (wake_script_source=null). This is a platform bootstrap failure, not a market problem. Blocks Index-Taker's counterparty; index-basket market is frozen. Fix: deploy the wake script.

wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0 (never armed → never ran). Signature is bootstrap init failure, not promise-drop (which would be armed=true but pidAlive=false).

N/A — agent never woke. No wake script to evaluate; script deployment must precede reasoning.

MISSING: wake script (null). No triggers can fire without deployed script.

Index-Taker's entire mission is to take SHORT side of IndexBasket intents this agent posts. Zero intent published = zero trades.

Would be interested in basket swaps for DCA rebalancing, but Index-Maker offline means zero intent.

LP could provide liquidity depth on basket, but currently offline anyway (681m outage, primary fleet blocker).

blocked (LP offline + Index-Maker undepl

Unmeasurable — agent never woke, never posted intent, never saw the book. No opportunity to miss when the agent is DOA.

Script does not exist (wake_script_source=null). Cannot evaluate reasoning without deployed script.

Deploy the wake script. Bootstrap failure must be resolved before script evaluation is meaningful.

Bootstrap initialization failure: wake script never deployed

Index-Maker.wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0 (never armed). The wake script was never deployed/loaded. This is distinct from the fleet's armWatcher promise-drop issue (which manifests as armed=true but pidAlive=false). This is a bootstrap init failure — the scrip

Debug the deploy/load pipeline for Index-Maker: (1) confirm the wake-script build/compile succeeded, (2) confirm the artifact exists in the storage/registry, (3) confirm the agent's bootstrap/init code successfully loads/deploys the script. Trace why wake_script_source is null after init.

Index-basket market frozen: Index-Maker offline → Index-Taker blocked, no counterparty

Index-Taker cannot trade (no intent to take). Index-Maker is the only publisher of index baskets on this board. Zero intent posted → zero index-basket deals. This cascades: Rebalancer-Lior, Momentum-Nikita, and other diversification-seeking agents have no index-basket counterparty.

Deploy Index-Maker's wake script and restart. Index-Taker will then have intent to take; index-basket market clears.

Index-Maker never woke (0 wakes) because the wake script was never deployed (wake_script_source=null). This is a platform bootstrap failure, not a market problem. Blocks Index-Taker's counterparty; index-basket market is frozen. Fix: deploy the wake script.

Index-Taker

Summary: Unchanged from last run: 0 wakes, armed=false, wake_script_source=null. Correctly holding—mission is responder (take SHORT of IndexBasket intents posted by Index-Maker). Index-Maker is offline due to core armWatcher promise-drop bug blocking both agents. No intents posted yet = no work for Index-Taker. Once armWatcher fix lands and Index-Maker deploys, this

Index-Taker is correctly offline awaiting Index-Maker (its sole counterparty), which is blocked by core armWatcher promise-drop bug. Zero wakes, zero intents on-chain—expected state. Fix is upstream: resolve armWatcher; Index-Maker posts first LONG intent; Index-Taker's responder watcher engages.

Index-Maker health=unknown, undeployed, blocked by core armWatcher bug. Zero LONG IndexBasket intents on-chain (none exist for any agent to take). Index-Taker watcher correctly disarmed, awaiting counterparty.

Not yet deployed—no wakes, no reasoning path to evaluate. Agent design (audit-gated responder, fail-closed) is sound for its mission; correctness is deferred until Index-Maker posts first intent.

Sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents by design; audit-gate ensures fail-closed acceptance.

offline (core armWatcher promise-drop bu

None—no IndexBasket intents on-chain. Unmeasurable until Index-Maker posts first LONG intent.

Not yet provisioned; must listen for Index-Maker's LONG intents and trigger audit-to-cross flow

Once armWatcher fix lands: author a responder watcher that polls indexer for Index-Maker's new LONG IndexBasket intents (~5–10 min cadence), audits each, crosses on ACCEPT verdict. Patient cadence fits a responder (intents are posted events

armWatcher promise-drop bug blocks Index-Maker (Index-Taker's counterparty)

Index-Maker undeployed → no LONG intents on-chain → Index-Taker has no work. Affects 4+ agents in cascade.

Resolve armWatcher promise-drop in SDK; Index-Maker deploys; Index-Taker engages immediately.

Watcher not yet provisioned

Once Index-Maker online, Index-Taker needs a responder watcher to listen for LONG intents, audit them, and cross on ACCEPT.

Author watcher: poll indexer for Index-Maker's LONG IndexBasket intents, audit via audit-custom-deal skill, cross on ACCEPT.

Index-Taker is correctly offline awaiting Index-Maker (its sole counterparty), which is blocked by core armWatcher promise-drop bug. Zero wakes, zero intents on-chain—expected state. Fix is upstream: resolve armWatcher; Index-Maker posts first LONG intent; Index-Taker's responder watcher engages.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Summary: LP-Maker crashed at 06-09T17:19 (w44, 800 min ago) due to core SDK armWatcher promise-drop: the wake script armed a 1h fallback but the promise was never returned to the orchestrator. Outage duration worsening (800 min vs 620 min baseline, +180 min since last summary). The fallback never executed — pidAlive=false, armed=false, no scheduled restart visible. T

LP-Maker is offline 800 minutes (worsening 180m since last summary) due to core armWatcher promise-drop—the watcher was correctly armed with a 1h fallback, but the promise was never returned, so the SDK never fired it. This is a platform failure, not the agent's fault. Requires core SDK fix and manual restart now. Fleet's 5+ dependent agents are unfilled.

Wake script (w44) shows armWatcher({fallbackMs: 3600000}) but the deadline promise is never returned to orchestrator. Result: watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null → fallback never executed. Outage duration 800m (was 620m, +180m since last summary). Pre-crash, age

SOUND FOR THE MISSION. Wake script correctly identifies three wake triggers: (1) quote expiry (~45 min), critical for two-sided depth; (2) oracle breach (±15–50 bps), rebalance trigger; (3) new fillable swaps, liquidity opportunity. Cadence right (1h fallback, not sub-minute polling). The script is not re-deriving cold—it's patient, watches its own intent lifecycle, tracks new network intents to f

Quote expiry (~45 min, w44 quotes expire ~17:58–18:05 UTC)

Oracle breach (±15–50 bps), triggering rebalance

New fillable swap intent matching HOLD set (USDC, BTC, ETH, SSV, sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT)

MISSING: Fallback promise never returned to orchestrator → 1h scheduled restart never fired

13 settled deals (largest counterparty), was consistently filled by LP

3 settled deals, needs LP depth for fade/rebalance swaps

3 settled deals, DCA mission needs LP liquidity for patient slices

1 settled deal so far, concentrated mover needs LP for delivered swaps

2 settled deals, USDC→sNVDA DCA blocked by LP offline

Unmeasurable while offline — agent is not watching the book. But per Step-1 context, 4+ agents (Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Rebalancer-Lior, Swing-Nikita) have unfilled intents waiting for LP liquidity. Pre-crash, LP settled 64 deals; the backlog is now stranded.

Correctly watches quote lifecycle (expiry ~45 min, mission-critical for two-sided depth)

Oracle breach trigger (±15–50 bps) matches patient LP rebalance window

Tracks own intent resolution (canFill logic for HOLD set) — not blind polling

1h fallback cadence is right: patient liquidity provider, not sub-minute churn

newMatches() logic avoids re-processing stale intents

Promise not returned to orchestrator — armWatcher() deadline promise was never passed to the SDK, so fallback was never scheduled/tracked

CORE FIX REQUIRED: Ensure armWatcher() promise is returned and awaited by the orchestrator. The script is correct; the SDK promise-tracking is broken. Once fixed, this agent should recover via the 1h fallback. No agent-side changes needed.

armWatcher promise-drop: fallback never executes

LP-Maker w44 script armed a watcher with fallbackMs=3600000 (1h), but the promise was never returned to the orchestrator. Result: watcher.pidAlive=false, armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Outage 800m (was 620m, +180m worsening). This is a platform/SDK bug, not the agent's fault.

Core engineer: review armWatcher() implementation in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js. Ensure the promise is returned and awaited by the orchestrator so fallbacks execute. Once fixed, manual restart of LP-Maker may not be needed (fallback should have recovered it already). Current blocker: fleet liquidity

Manual restart required now

LP-Maker cannot self-recover because the promise-drop bug prevents the fallback from executing. The agent needs a manual restart to rejoin the fleet.

Restart LP-Maker immediately. Priority: this is the fleet's liquidity hub, blocking Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Rebalancer-Lior, Swing-Nikita intents. Restore the 64-deal settlement rate post-restart.

Mimic-Ljuba

Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on sole available BinaryBet. One deliberate move rule: holding.

stock market opens OR new ≥3pp taker-edge binary OR 90min fallback

Summary: Mimic-ljuba accepted two high-edge bets (deals #81 deal-#83, >30pp cost-implied edge each vs Bear-Yosher) in w37–w39, validating its copy-trader discipline. Now idle for 5 consecutive wakes (w40–w44) because available BinaryBets fall below its 3pp edge floor—correctly waiting, not broken. Primary counterparty Bear-Yosher remains online and active (10 settled

Mimic-ljuba is healthy and disciplined. Accepted deals #81 and #83 (both >30pp edge) in w37–w39; now correctly idle for 5 wakes because sole available binary has <3pp edge. Bear-Yosher is online—no counterparty starvation. Watcher well-reasoned for mission.

Market depth: only 1 BinaryBet available in recent wakes, edge below 3pp floor. Not a counterparty miss (Bear-Yosher online) or mispricing—a thin-market constraint. Agent enforces discipline; refusing to churn on low-edge bets is correct.

Sound. Mimic-ljuba evaluates each binary against oracle-repriced edge floor (w38 correctly rejected intent #735 as 'deep OTM, +3.3% move required'). Accepts only >3pp edge (deals #81, #83 both justified by +30pp margins). One-move-per-wake rule enforced across 5 idle wakes—no churn. Solving the right problem: copy-trading high-edge bets, not posting or speculating.

Stock market opens 13:30 UTC (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT board refresh)

New BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker-edge appears

10 of 12 settled deals vs Bear-Yosher; strong convex relationship. Bear posts BinaryBets (crypto down + tech up); Mimic takes high-edge take

Vulture posts sharp/baited intents (mispriced swaps + near-sure binaries); Mimic copies high-edge bets. Fit exists but no deals yet.

online, at 28-deal ceiling (no capacity)

1 settled deal (presumably an option or binary arbitrage). Sporadic, not a reliable flow.

None detected. Watcher polls every 60s for new ≥3pp binaries; w38 found intent #735, rightly rejected (3.3% move required). If blind intents exist outside readOpenIntents snapshot, metric is unmeasurable until watcher architecture changes.

Fires on stock market open (13:30 UTC)—oracle-moving signal relevant to copy-trading mission

Detects new high-edge binaries (≥3pp edge floor matched exactly)

90min fallback + 60s polling cadence reasonable for patient taker strategy

Zero-LLM, deterministic, no book-empty false positives

60s polling is fine-grained for thin market; could back off to 5min to save ~$0.10/5h (low priority, current burn $0.59/5h acceptable)

No critical change needed. If market remains thin, consider reducing poll cadence to 5min to save tokens—but agent health is sound at current rate.

Market depth bottleneck (structural)

Only 1 BinaryBet available in recent wakes, consistently below Mimic-Ljuba's 3pp edge floor. Not the agent's fault—market needs more high-edge binary postings from other agents (esp. Bear-Yosher, its primary counterparty).

Fleet-level: encourage Bear-Yosher to post more BinaryBets on crypto/tech moves, or encourage Swing-Nikita/Momentum-Nikita to post high-edge binaries. Mimic-Ljuba is ready to copy-trade; supply is the constraint.

Mimic-ljuba is healthy and disciplined. Accepted deals #81 and #83 (both >30pp edge) in w37–w39; now correctly idle for 5 wakes because sole available binary has <3pp edge. Bear-Yosher is online—no counterparty starvation. Watcher well-reasoned for mission.

Momentum-Nikita

Summary: SSV momentum signal was decisive (3.58pp fast, 2.06pp slow, both clearing 2pp threshold)—correctly posted Intent #745 ($51.25 USDC→SSV, 8h window) at w10 (04:50 UTC). Zero takers: pure core starvation, not agent fault. LP-Maker-Matheus offline 681m blocks all USDC supply. Intent window fresh (~6h 11m remaining, expires 12:50 UTC). Watcher armed + alive, moni

Momentum signal was valid and correctly executed. Intent #745 ($51.25 USDC→SSV) has zero takers solely because LP-Maker-Matheus is offline 681m—no USDC supply available anywhere in the fleet. This is a core SDK issue (armWatcher promise drop per Step 1), not agent reasoning. Intent window is fresh (expires 12:50 UTC); watcher will fire on intent resolution or 8.5h fallback. Agent will execute cleanly once LP restarts.

Intent #745 posted 4h ago, 8h window, zero takers. LP-Maker-Matheus (sole USDC source for fleet) offline 681m. Stacker-Massimo also offline 537m. No other agent supplies USDC liquidity. This is core SDK blockage (listed in Step 1 focusAreas), not agent error.

Sound. Agent correctly identified SSV as momentum leader clearing the 2pp edge threshold. Previous Intent #741 expired in 1h window (fair for thin market). Re-posting #745 with 8h window was disciplined—waiting for LP restart or further conviction. The 9 repeat wakes were all justified no-action scenarios: 'edge threshold unmet', 'all assets in mild downtrend', 'best gap <1pp'. This is patient wai

Intent #745 resolves (filled or expired)

8.5h fallback (covers ~12:50 UTC intent expiry + 13:30 UTC market open)

Only USDC source for USDC→SSV; mission is exact liquidity provision

offline 681m (core armWatcher promise-dr

Needs USDC→sNVDA (close direction); could diversify to SSV if allocation fit

offline 537m, token-burning in retry loo

Taker of delivered swaps but needs USDC out, not in; cash flow mismatch

None. Agent correctly waited for momentum leadership to exceed 2pp threshold (disciplined filtering). Only missed opportunity is LP restart—outside agent control.

Monitors intent resolution (the critical outcome for active position)

Tracks price leadership with 3% spike threshold (new momentum signal trigger)

8.5h fallback covers both intent expiry (~12:50 UTC) and market open (13:30 UTC) when new leadership might emerge

Zero-LLM, deterministic, no book polling—fits patient momentum agent

None. Wake-script is well-reasoned for mission and correctly armed for next decision point.

armWatcher promise drop: LP-Maker-Matheus offline 681m, blocking fleet liquidity

LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole USDC provider for 7+ agents. Offline 681m (worsening 61m/cycle per Step 1). Momentum-Nikita's Intent #745 zero takers. Swing-Nikita will trigger sNVDA sell at 13:30 UTC with zero position (certain failure). Stacker-Massimo offline 537m burning $2.35 in token-retry loop.

Diagnose and fix armWatcher promise-drop in LP-Maker-Matheus wake-script. This is the load-bearing core SDK fix. Restarts liquidity for entire fleet.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: Correctly idle and well-reasoned, waiting for audited Option intents. Woke 8 times since last run (w7–w14, ending 09:53 UTC, 541m ago); all 8 scans found zero audited options in book—expected behavior. Sole counterparty Option-Writer-Matheus remains offline 783m (worsened from 665m) due to core armWatcher promise-drop bug. Agent armed, process alive, fallbac

Agent is working perfectly—scanning book every ~84 minutes for audited Option intents and firing correctly on new matches. Zero intents available because Option-Writer-Matheus (sole counterparty) is offline 783m due to a core platform bug. Agent health is good; the bottleneck is core-side (restart Writer).

Option-Writer-Matheus offline 783m (core armWatcher promise-drop bug per Step 1 focus). Zero audited Option intents found across all 8 recent wakes (w7–w14). Writer is the only agent in fleet authorized to post audited options this agent can take.

Sound. Executes responder mission correctly: scans book each wake, filters for specific audited template hash (0xcd5689c76d56d3133c5b631145692a2c9035002dd8a745b80a738d736070daf6), fires only on NEW intents. Not re-deriving the same move—correctly idle in an empty book. Logic is disciplined and on-mission.

new audited Option intent matching 0xcd5689c76d56d3133c5b631145692a2c9035002dd8a745b80a738d736070daf6

Only source of audited Options in scope; explicit counterparty for this agent's audit logic

None—zero audited Option intents in book across 8 wakes. Market is empty, not an agent miss.

Fires only on NEW audited intents (responder pattern, avoids re-triggering stale data)

2h fallback is patient and appropriate for low-velocity responder

Tracks seen intents correctly to avoid duplicate wakes

None—wake-script is fit-to-mission and well-executed. Bottleneck is entirely upstream (Writer-Matheus availability).

Option-Writer-Matheus offline 783m — core armWatcher bug starves taker

Sole counterparty down (now 118m worse than last run: 665m → 783m). Blocks option-taker-matheus and starves 4+ other agents per Step 1.

Fix core armWatcher promise-drop bug. Restart Option-Writer-Matheus.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Summary: Offline 784 minutes (last wake w26 at 2026-06-09T15:49 UTC) due to core armWatcher promise-drop bug. Wake w26 armed watcher with dual deadlines (19:50 UTC primary, 23:00 UTC fallback) to execute market-close rotation; both have passed (~04:00 UTC Jun-10) without firing. Pre-crash: portfolio rotation engine executed disciplined discipline (w23 posted 3 swaps,

Offline 13+ hours (w26→27 armWatcher never fired at 19:50 or 23:00 UTC Jun-9). Pre-crash state: portfolio rebalancing 50% executed (intent 528 filled vs Bear-Yosher; intents 530/533 expired due to LP scarcity, not repricing error), option-writing starved (0 of 6 posts attracted takers, paused). No recovery until core armWatcher promise-drop patched and LP-Maker-Matheus restarted.

w26 wake-script armed armWatcher at 2026-06-09T15:49 UTC with targetWakeUtc=19:50Z, fallbackUtc=23:00Z (per wake-watch.js). Both deadlines passed; watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null (no recovery armed). Same armWatcher bug as LP-Maker-Matheus (core SDK root). S

Pre-crash reasoning was SOUND. w26 script exhibits discipline: time-triggered market-close execution (19:50 UTC) with hard fallback (23:00 UTC), no order polling (0 open intents), zero LLM cost. w25 correctly rejected intraday repricing as churn ('final move at market close locks conviction'). Portfolio engine tracked drift (w25: latest worst-2 rankings vs w23 baseline) and was executing rotation

Time-based: 19:50 UTC (market close) primary, 23:00 UTC fallback

MISSING: Recovery fallback after armWatcher crash. Once watcher dies (promise-drop), no rescue mechanism fires.

Primary liquidity source for portfolio rotation swaps. Intent 528 filled ✓ (sMSFT exit); intents 530/533 expired due to LP offline.

Mission is to buy cheap/in-the-money options. Option-Writer posts ATM/slightly-OTM ETH/BTC options (3% premium, 6-hour term). Mismatch on mo

OK per roster, but no engagement in logs

1 settled deal (historical). Bear-Yosher is BinaryBet taker/poster, not swap or option counterparty.

None on portfolio side (swaps posted at oracle mid, execution was disciplined). Option side: exhausted all premium/term/strike combinations without filling; could have extended further OTM or term lengths, but 6-post rejection pattern suggests fundamental taker absence (not pricing). Unmeasurable: whether Option-Taker or other agents were watching the option posts—watcher cannot see counterparty b

Time-triggered at market close (19:50 UTC) — exact moment to lock rotation conviction, not churn intraday.

Hard fallback (23:00 UTC) — resilient to minor delays.

Zero polling, no book monitoring — correct for intentional portfolio agent with no open orders to watch.

Zero LLM cost — pure deterministic timing.

Single point of failure: armWatcher is the only mechanism. Once watcher crashes (promise-drop), no secondary recovery path exists.

No timeout/heartbeat logged after fire call — script fires `fireWake()` but no confirmation that w27 actually executes.

After core SDK armWatcher fix: add a secondary health-check fallback (e.g., if w27 doesn't fire within 5 min of 19:50 UTC, post a heartbeat intent as a 'fire w27 NOW' signal). This decouples wake-firing from armWatcher alone.

armWatcher promise-drop bug prevents w27 wake (cascade impact: 4+ agents offline)

w26 script armed armWatcher with dual deadlines (19:50 + 23:00 UTC Jun-9). Both timestamps passed (~04:00 UTC Jun-10); watcher crashed silently (armed=false, pidAlive=false). Same SDK root as LP-Maker-Matheus (down 681m, blocking all liquidity). Option-Writer offline 784m, Stacker-Massimo offline 53

Patch sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js promise-chain handling (null-check or error boundary around deadline callbacks). Verify fallback timer doesn't silently drop on exception. Restart all affected agents (LP-Maker, Option-Writer, Stacker) after fix deployed.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 681m blocks portfolio rotation completion

Option-Writer posted 3 rotation swaps (w23, intents 528/530/533). Intent 528 filled via Bear-Yosher (✓), intents 530/533 expired unfilled. LP is primary liquidity source; without LP, remaining swaps cannot settle. Cascade: Momentum-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo also starved waiting for LP

Bring LP-Maker-Matheus online (requires core armWatcher fix). Option-Writer will retry w27 rotation swaps once LP available. Prioritize LP restart — it unblocks 4+ agents.

Option-writing engine (ENGINE 1) exhausted taker demand — 0 of 6 posts filled, paused w21

w19–w21: posted 6 options (premium/term/strike: near-OTM to ATM, 3–6hr term, 0.15 USDC premium). Zero takers. w21: paused ENGINE 1 (70/30 portfolio side). w23–w25: focused on portfolio rotation (swaps). No evidence of ENGINE 2 (option-writing fallback) or retry of option strategy with different para

Post-restart: audit Option-Taker-Matheus mandate (buys cheap/in-the-money, not ATM). Consider (a) extending deeper OTM + longer term for higher premium attraction, or (b) pausing options until Option-Taker is more active and visible on chain. Portfolio side (swaps) is sound; focus there first.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL position well-positioned mid-hold, edge erosion expected per convergence. Hori

sAAPL stop ($277.34) / forward ($303.75) / balance change / new intent / horizon (Jun10 16:00 UTC)

Summary: Was correctly monitoring sAAPL (edge 1.5%, horizon Jun-10 16:00 UTC ~10h away, position stable at 0.085722 @ $290.79 = $24.93). BUT: wake script missing shade binary trigger — mission says 'post small-shade when nothing's mispriced,' yet 8 consecutive wakes (w12–w19, 29-min window) detected zero misprices with zero shade posts and zero open intents. Script d

Mission incompletely implemented. The agent waits for mispriced bets (correct) but doesn't post shade binaries when the market is quiet — that's the resilience mechanism to stay profitable during idle periods. Last 29 min: 0 misprices detected, 0 shade posts executed. Gap is in wake script logic, not market conditions.

Wake script (current.ts) has sAAPL balance/stop/forward/new-intent triggers but no quiet-time trigger for shade posting. Mission says 'post small-shade when nothing's mispriced' — wakes w12–w19 all report 'No mispriced opportunities' yet zero shade intents opened. Script detects the condition but do

The wait-and-watch logic for sAAPL edge is sound — detect price triggers, balance changes, new intents. But it's incomplete: the agent should be making small-shade bets during quiet periods to stay active/profitable. Currently it just idles, re-checking the same empty/quiet book every 60s. Sound reasoning solving a partial mission.

sAAPL balance change (from baseline 0.085722)

MISSING: Quiet-time trigger — no misprices detected for N minutes, should post shade binary

Primary swap counterparty (settled 1 deal), but OFFLINE 681m — blocks swaps but not shade betting

Settled 1 bet (BinaryBet); can take shade binaries posted by Polymarket-Ljuba

Takes BinaryBets; could be shade taker if bet aligns with crypto-down conviction

Picks off mispriced swaps/binaries; shade might be baited target, but Vulture at hard ceiling (28 deals, 0 open intents)

Shade binary posts. Mission prescribes 'post small-shade when nothing's mispriced.' Recent window (w12–w19, 29 min): 8 wakes all detected zero misprices, yet zero shade intents opened. Quantified miss: if quiet-time trigger fired every 120 min of no misprices, expected 0–1 shade posts in this window; actual: 0. Watcher blind to whether takers would accept shade on book (unmeasurable until script p

sAAPL balance-change detection (0.085722 baseline) — catches accidental position moves

Stop/forward triggers ($277.34 / $303.75) — disciplined risk bounds

New-intent detection — responsive to book changes

Horizon fallback (Jun-10 16:00 UTC + 60s buffer) — respects expiry

No quiet-time trigger for shade posting — mission says 'post small-shade when nothing's mispriced,' but loop only fires on external events (price, balance, new

Loop polls every 60s but has no state flag to track idle duration — can't detect 'quiet for 120 min' condition to trigger shade

Add quiet-time tracking to the watcher loop: maintain a `lastMispricedTs` or `quietStartMin` flag. If `networkOpenIntents` are checked and none are mispriced (or empty) for 120+ min, fire `fireWake('quiet time exceeded, post shade binary')`

Wake script missing shade binary trigger

Script monitors sAAPL price/balance and new intents but has no logic to fire when the market is quiet for N minutes. Mission says post shade when nothing's mispriced; recent 8 wakes detected zero misprices with zero shade posts. Loop must detect and act on the idle condition.

Add state variable `lastQuietCheckMin` or similar to track how long no misprices have been seen. If quiet for ≥120 min, fire `fireWake('quiet time exceeded, post shade binary')` to invoke the main agent's shade-posting logic. Keep existing sAAPL triggers intact.

Zero open intents despite idle market

0 open intents for 29+ min while book has no misprices (expected environment for shade posting per mission). Suggests either script never reaches the shade-posting branch or the main agent doesn't execute when woken for this reason.

Trace: (1) ensure quiet-time wake fires (add logging to watcher); (2) verify main agent has write capability to post binaries; (3) check if shade posting is being blocked by core SDK or counterparty starvation (unlikely — shade takers exist on board).

Rebalancer-Lior

All favorable opportunities gated by market hours. Must wait for stocks market to open at 13:30 UTC before trading stock

intents #669/670 resolve (fill/expire), or stocks reopen 13:30 UTC

Summary: Rebalancer-Lior correctly posted DCA intents #669/#670 at 19:55 UTC 06-09 (sAAPL/sNVDA underweight slices), but both expired unfilled at 20:55 UTC due to LP-Maker-Matheus outage (primary counterparty offline 681m). Agent disciplined: respects market hours (13:30–20:00 UTC), went idle overnight with zero token spend, posted no repeat intents. Armed watcher po

Intents #669/#670 (DCA rebalance toward −15pp sAAPL underweight) expired unfilled because LP-Maker-Matheus is offline — not the agent's fault. Rebalancer correctly paused, respects market hours, and is armed to wake at stocks market open (13:30 UTC). Zero token burn in 372 min.

LP-Maker-Matheus outage 681m (primary counterparty: 3 of 8 settled deals). Vulture-Andrew at hard ceiling (28 deals, 0 open intents). No other reliable takers. Intents #669/#670 posted at 19:55 UTC with 60-min expiry, expired unfilled at 20:55 UTC. Wake logs w13–w17 (22:12–00:27 UTC) all 'no tx' — n

Sound. Agent correctly identifies sAAPL as priority (−15pp overall, −40pp stock leg), posts appropriate DCA slice ($7 = 28% of $25 target per wake), accepts favorable intents when available (#631 at w18), respects market-hour constraints (stocks 13:30–20:00 UTC only), and correctly goes idle when no takers exist. Solving the right problem: patient rebalancing within mission constraints.

Intent #669 / #670 resolved (filled or expired) — both expired 20:55 UTC 06-09

Stocks market open 13:30 UTC 06-10 — fallback armed, 411 min scheduled

MISSING: New favorable intents on book (low-priority for patient overnight idle, but would allow resume earlier than market open)

Primary liquidity partner: 3 of 8 settled deals (37.5%). Fills swaps near oracle mid.

NO — outage 681m, fleet primary hub offl

Could theoretically take sharp DCA slices, but starved by LP outage as well (would rotate failed intents).

NO — at hard ceiling (28 deals, 0 open i

3 settled deals total; swing agent posts swaps on dislocations. Not natural counterparty but available.

YES — health ok, but low historical volu

Intents #669/#670 themselves (expired unfilled at 20:55 UTC 06-09). No alternate favorable intents detected during overnight watches w13–w17 (22:12–00:27 UTC, all 'no tx'). Gap is measurable and clear: LP offline starved the entire Rebalancer market.

Respects market hours: only posts during 13:30–20:00 UTC (stocks market hours), waits patiently overnight

Correct fallback: scheduled wake at stocks market open 13:30 UTC (411 min from last wake, mission-aligned)

Clear intent death detection: polls for intents #669/#670 resolution (filled/expired), fires wake when resolved

Zero-LLM, no external service dependencies — clean and fast

Polling cadence suboptimal for patient agent: 30-second intervals for 6.85 hours overnight = ~820 polls. Average wake gap is 104 min; aggressive overnight polli

Only monitors intent death, not market recovery: if LP-Maker comes back online before 13:30 UTC, agent won't know — watcher blind to counterparty state changes

Reduce polling cadence for overnight idle: use 5-min intervals until 1 hour before market open (13:30 UTC), then switch to 30-s intervals in the final hour. Cuts overnight polls from ~820 to ~80, still responsive near wake time. Alternative

LP-Maker-Matheus outage cascades across fleet

LP-Maker-Matheus (primary liquidity hub) offline 681m, starving 7+ agents including Rebalancer-Lior. Step 1 attributes to 'Core armWatcher promise-drop bug' — watcher may not have detected LP's status or recovery. This is the root cause of failed intents #669/#670, not Rebalancer's fault.

Debug armWatcher promise-drop in core SDK (platform retry loop, watcher blind to hub recovery). Route to SDK maintainer; blocks fleet liquidity.

Wake-script polling cadence suboptimal for patient agent

30-second polling for 6.85 hours overnight contradicts DCA mission discipline (avg gap 104 min). Unnecessary token spend during idle wait.

Reduce polling to 5-min intervals overnight, escalate to 30-s in final hour before market open. Cuts cost 10×, maintains responsiveness.

Intents #669/#670 (DCA rebalance toward −15pp sAAPL underweight) expired unfilled because LP-Maker-Matheus is offline — not the agent's fault. Rebalancer correctly paused, respects market hours, and is armed to wake at stocks market open (13:30 UTC). Zero token burn in 372 min.

Stacker-Massimo

CLAUDE.md: sNVDA swaps market hours only (09:30-16:00 ET). Blockchain nowTs=1781073217 = 06:33 UTC = 02:33 AM ET. No fil

Summary: DCA stalled by cascading offline: Agent process dead 537m+ (watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false) with platform SDK burning $2.35 in retry loop on dead escrow (Intent 686, expires 14:08 UTC today). Primary counterparty LP-Maker-Matheus offline 681m blocking all settlement paths. 2 swaps settled lifetime (both vs LP before it went down); current open Intent 75

Agent offline 537m, platform burning $2.35/5h retrying dead escrow (Intent 686 expires today 14:08 UTC). LP-Maker (sole counterparty) offline 681m. Dual offline state is unsustainable — immediate action required: (1) kill retry loop to stop token leak; (2) restart agent process; (3) monitor LP recovery.

Intent 686 (0.25 USDC, expires 14:08 UTC) posted w18 by living agent, but agent died shortly after (last wake w22 at 06-09T06:36Z, 537m ago). Platform SDK still polling/retrying escrow on dead process. LP-Maker (only swap counterparty) offline 681m — even if agent restarts, no maker exists. Tokens b

Agent's core DCA logic was sound before offline (oracle-drift tracking, bid re-posting, directional binary thesis). But reasoning is irrelevant to a dead process. No churn detected — just early death followed by platform retry bleed. Not an agent reasoning failure; a platform availability cascade (LP → agent both offline, escrow locked, retry drains tokens).

Pre-market watcher: market open at 09:30 AM ET (2026-06-09T13:30Z per wake script)

MISSING: cannot fire — agent process dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

Sole provider of sNVDA liquidity for DCA swaps — both settled swaps came from LP before outage

OFFLINE 681m (primary liquidity hub down

At hard ceiling (28 deals, 0 open intents), cannot absorb new counterparty demand. Taker-only, no sell-side sNVDA.

Concentrates into strongest mover, buys via swaps; does not provide liquidity for DCA.

Unmeasurable: agent offline since w22 (537m). No intents posted, no book visibility, no settlement possible. If LP were alive, agent would continue DCA rhythm (0.50 USDC/wake, avg 86 min gap). Not a reasoning miss — a process death.

Watcher correctly arms fallback (120s past market open + 5m buffer = reasonable pre-market cadence for market-hours-only asset)

Zero-LLM, fast, respects market-hours constraint (sNVDA trades 09:30–16:00 ET only)

Script is irrelevant if agent process is dead — no fallback fires without active container

No heartbeat/health check before firing — watcher should verify agent process is still alive before kicking off new wake

Not applicable until agent is restarted. After restart, add a lightweight process-alive ping in the watcher before firing (or move health check to SDK startup).

Platform retry loop on dead escrow burning tokens

$2.35 burned in 5h despite agent offline 537m and no settlement possible (LP offline 681m). Intent 686 (0.25 USDC escrow locked at 21:41 UTC on 06-09) still being polled by SDK retry mechanism — suggests promise-drop or retry-loop bug in armWatcher / runWatchLoop. See Step 1 focus: 'Core armWatcher

Audit sdk/scripts/wake-watch.ts: verify (a) retry loops terminate when agent process dies, (b) locked escrow is not re-polled after N retries or timeout, (c) fallback scheduling does not fire on dead PID. Kill stacker-massimo's process immediately to stop token leak; then fix SDK to prevent recurren

Intent 686 will burn escrow at expiry (14:08 UTC today) if LP offline persists

Directional binary bet (0.25 USDC sNVDA UP, expires 14:08 UTC). Posted by agent at w18 (21:41 UTC on 06-09) when agent was still alive, but agent died before settlement. If LP-Maker does not come online by 14:08 UTC to counter, escrow will fail settlement and tokens will be forfeited.

Monitor LP recovery; if not online by 13:30 UTC (45m before expiry), manually cancel Intent 686 via protocol to recover 0.25 USDC. This is fleet-critical: cascading timeout losses amplify offline duration.

Agent process dead — needs restart

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, last wake 537m ago. Agent CLAUDE.md should log the failure mode (crash, OOM, uncaught exception, etc.) to diagnose why process died and prevent recurrence.

Restart stacker-massimo process. Retrieve crash logs or last exception from agent container logs. If OOM or memory leak, check DCA loop for unbounded state accumulation (e.g., intent history). Then monitor for 1h to confirm restart stability.

Swing-Nikita

Summary: Armed at market open 13:30 UTC (475m fallback) to sell sNVDA +2.56% signal, but zero position held + LP-Maker-Matheus offline (681m down) = certain execution failure. Watcher is well-reasoned (patient, hard deadline, zero-LLM), but lacks pre-check guard (only fire if position > 0 AND LP alive). Recent fade trading (w8-w15) disciplined: trimmed AAPL at fair v

Swing-Nikita's sNVDA sell signal (fire at market open 13:30 UTC) is real and well-timed, but execution is structurally impossible: zero sNVDA position (last swaps w8-w9 were AAPL, not sNVDA) + LP offline (681m down). All 3 settled deals came via LP-Maker-Matheus; no fallback counterparty online. Watcher needs position/LP pre-check guard or will wake to a no-op/error.

Position query: sNVDA=0 (settled deals w8-w9 moved AAPL only; portfolio at $100.23 last w15). Counterparty: LP-Maker-Matheus down 681m (all 3 settled deals via LP, no alternatives). Trigger: MARKET_OPEN_MS fires unconditionally at 13:30 UTC regardless of position or LP state.

Sound. w8-w9: accepted and settled AAPL swaps (+0.04→-0.04 sAAPL, trimmed book from 31.9% to 20%), correct fade-and-exit discipline. w10: no trade (assets <1.5% threshold). w11-w13: posted SSV swap at -1.89% dislocation (23 USDC→11.68 SSV), observed when book thinned after unfilled expiry, correctly aborted repost (no tiny unfillable reposts rule). w14-w15: correctly identified sNVDA blocker (mark

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (hard-coded MARKET_OPEN_MS = 1781098200_000)

Fallback 15h timer (nextFallbackMin=475 → fires ~15:20 UTC if clock/restart skew)

MISSING: Pre-check before fireWake() — only fire if sNVDA position > 0 AND LP counterparty alive. Currently fires unconditionally.

Exclusive counterparty: all 3 settled deals (w8 deal 61, w9 deal 62, w11 intent 0x289). Primary liquidity engine for swaps.

OFFLINE — down 681m (per Step 1 focus ar

At hard ceiling (28 deals, 0 open intents) — could absorb sNVDA short post. But capacity-bound, not reliable.

ONLINE (deals=28, open=0; fleet context:

Mission allows swaps (hunt strongest mover via delivered swaps). Not primary maker, not measured as fallback for Swing-Nikita.

ONLINE (deals=1, health=ok; lightweight)

None. Signal is reactive (dislocation-based, fires at market open). Agent had zero sNVDA yesterday — could not pre-position (signal not available until now). Failure is structural (markets closed at signal-discovery time, LP offline now), not a missed taker window.

Fires at right moment: US market open 13:30 UTC (asset tradeable, markets live)

Patient cadence: zero-LLM, hard deadline (not polling), respects agent's one-slice-per-wake discipline

Fallback guard: 15h timer covers clock-skew/restart scenarios

Not reactive to book: deterministic deadline, not 'book non-empty' trap

No pre-check guard before fireWake(): fires unconditionally even if position=0 (no sNVDA held)

No counterparty liveness check: doesn't verify LP alive before waking on market open; unaware of 681m outage

Add pre-check guard in runWatchLoop before fireWake(): only fire if (sNVDA_position > 0 && lp_alive). If check fails, skip fire and let 15h fallback re-check. Prevents certain execution failure (waking to a no-op or error).

Wake-script fires unconditionally; no precondition guards

MARKET_OPEN_MS triggers at 13:30 UTC regardless of execution readiness. Current state: position=0 (no sNVDA), LP offline (681m). Will wake and attempt sell with no inventory or counterparty. Execution certain to fail.

Guard fireWake() with pre-check: (sNVDA_position > 0 && lp_counterparty_alive). Only fire if both true; skip and fallback otherwise.

armWatcher promise-drop bug prevents signal adaptation to platform state

Per Step 1, armWatcher has a promise-drop bug where agents don't re-wake when critical counterparties (LP) go offline. Swing-Nikita's watcher cannot adapt to LP down 681m; unaware of execution blocker until market-open wake (too late to adjust).

Fix armWatcher in SDK to deliver state-change notifications (LP online/offline). Enable signal-firing logic to check platform state before waking on deadline.

Vulture-Andrew

no takeable edges ≥1%, all intents health checked, no rebalance needed outside US hours (stock buys deferred to 13:30 UT

6 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781072592; next poll 200s

Summary: Vulture correctly deprioritized edge-hunting for portfolio rebalance: sAAPL at 0.39% from floor is existential (wake 33 lesson). Posted rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 at oracle+0.5% (fair) but unfilled 60m+ because primary counterparty LP-Maker-Matheus offline (core armWatcher promise-drop bug per Step 1, not Vulture's fault). Watcher armed, sleeping until 13

Vulture's 0 open intents is correct idle state, not saturation. The 28 settled deals (lifetime count) is not a hard ceiling constraint — the real bottleneck is LP-Maker-Matheus offline 681m, blocking Vulture's rebalance intents and 4+ dependent agents (Step 1). Artificial cap at 27 would waste nothing; Vulture has no edges to hunt while LP offline. Watcher well-reasoned (sleeps until 13:30 UTC market open), but could wake sooner with heartbeat check on LP status.

LP-Maker-Matheus (10 of 28 settled deals; primary counterparty) offline 681m per Step 1. Rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 posted oracle+0.5% but unfilled 60m+ due to zero counterparty. Core armWatcher promise-drop bug, not agent fault. The 'hard ceiling' question is moot: Vulture's 0 open intents is co

Sound and mission-aligned. Vulture deprioritized edges (binary 714) to restore portfolio floor (sAAPL 0.39% critical); reasoning disciplined: 'Portfolio hygiene is mission-critical (per wake 23 lesson)', 'Rebalance > binary gain', 'Test oracle-mid at 13:30 when LP active'. Solving the right problem (portfolio crisis + liquidity collapse), not re-deriving or burning tokens.

13:30 UTC market open (when LP-Maker-Matheus expected to return and stock swaps viable)

2h fallback (hard deadline, zero-LLM, deterministic)

MISSING: heartbeat check (every 15–20 min) to detect LP return early — currently sleeps 7h, misses early resume

10 of 28 settled deals; primary liquidity hub; rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 waiting for fills

3 settled deals; external counterparty; unknown

1 settled deal; healthy per roster; can provide edges if Vulture hunting

Binary 714 (deferred w36 due to slow custom deal auditing machinery). Justified miss — rebalance > binary edge given sAAPL floor crisis. No other edges identified in recent wakes (1% gate not clear; LP offline limits opportunities anyway).

Patient 60s polling (not sub-minute churn; respects deadline constraint)

Hard 2h fallback (zero-LLM, deterministic, can't fire on 'book non-empty')

Deadline-driven: 13:30 UTC is when LP expected active and stock swaps viable

No heartbeat to detect LP-Maker-Matheus early return; sleeps 7h until 13:30, misses resume at 12:xx UTC

Add lightweight poll every 15–20 min to check if LP-Maker-Matheus came online; fire wake if true, so Vulture can attempt rebalance fills sooner (e.g., 12:45 instead of 13:30).

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 681m — armWatcher promise-drop bug

Primary liquidity hub down; Vulture's rebalance intents 0x2e3/0x2e4 (oracle+0.5%) stuck unfilled 60m+. Blocks 4+ dependent agents (Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Rebalancer-Lior, Option-Taker-Matheus per Step 1). Vulture correctly waiting for return.

Core: diagnose/fix armWatcher promise-drop bug (Step 1 priority). Immediate: restore LP-Maker-Matheus. Vulture's watcher is sound — problem is external.

Custom deal auditing machinery is slow (deferred binary 714 w36)

Vulture skipped binary 714 due to 'execution friction; custom deal auditing/accept machinery is slow'. Not a fault (rebalance justified), but flags tooling overhead blocking edge execution when portfolio is stable.

Agent: profile CLAUDE.md custom deal auditing; optimize or pre-approve safe patterns to reduce friction on future edges.

CASCADING STARVATION: CORE SDK PROMISE-DROP BLOCKS LP HUB

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Vulture-Andrew, Arb-Hunter-Tom, Rebalancer-Lior, Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo

HUB OFFLINE 681m (core armWatcher promise-drop, w44). 10 of 15 recent deals invo

Mimic-Ljuba ⇄ Bear-Yosher ⇄ Polymarket-Ljuba

NOISY: Bear-Yosher race condition (w29b + w30 simultaneous on Intent 742 fill, p

OFFLINE 784m (core armWatcher promise-drop, w26). Zero audited options in book.

OFFLINE—bootstrap failed (Index-Maker never armed: wake_script_source=null, wake

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop (w44 LP-Maker-Matheus, w26 Option-Writer-Matheus): deadline promise never returned to o

LP-Maker down 681m (was 620m, +61m/cycle, worsening). Cascade: Momentum-Nikita Intent 745 ($51.25 USDC→25 SSV, 6h 8m rem

LP-Maker: watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Wake w44 shows 'armWatcher({fallbackMs: 3600000})' but no promise return. Option-Writer: same (w26, dual deadlines 19:50 UTC + 23:0

Vulture-Andrew (secondary swap maker) at hard ceiling: 28 deals settled, 0 open intents

Cannot absorb overflow when LP-Maker restores. Backlog (Momentum, Arb-Hunter, Rebalancer, Stacker intents) will exceed c

Vulture summary: 28 deals (fleet max), 0 open intents. Recent 15-deal window: 5 Vulture ↔ LP deals. No room for additional makers.

Core watcher race condition: Intent 742 fill at 06-09T04:05 UTC triggered w29b and w30 simultaneously at 04:09 UTC

Bear-Yosher posted duplicate BTC-BELOW bets (deals 82–83) within seconds. Violates mission (needs exactly one resting be

Bear-Yosher summary: 'Wake 29b and wake 30 both ran simultaneously (triggered by same intent-fill)'. Wake logs w29b and w30 at 04:09 UTC. Deals 82 and 83 posted within seconds on same logic.

Swing-Nikita MARKET_OPEN_MS trigger fires unconditionally at 13:30 UTC (475m fallback, ~7h away); zero sNVDA position he

Certain execution failure. Position query: sNVDA=0 (last wakes w8–w9 settled AAPL only; portfolio $100.23 AAPL-denominat

Swing-Nikita summary: 'zero position held + LP-Maker-Matheus offline (681m down) = certain execution failure'. Watcher armed, fallback 475m, next fire 13:30 UTC.

Platform SDK retry/polling loop on dead escrow (Stacker-Massimo process dead 537m, pidAlive=false)

Tokens burning at $2.35 over 5 hours. Intent 686 (0.25 USDC escrow, expires 14:08 UTC) polling despite agent process gon

Stacker-Massimo summary: 'last wake w22 at 06-09T06:36Z, 537m ago... burning $2.35 in 5h'. watcher.armed=true (fallback 407m), pidAlive=false (no process). Intent 686 posted w18, still on-chain.

Index-Maker bootstrap failure (never armed): wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, wakes=0

Index-Taker has no counterparty. Zero LONG IndexBasket intents posted. Index-Taker correctly disarmed (armed=false), awa

Index-Maker: waker.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0, wake_script_source=null. Index-Taker: armed=false (correct state for responder with no counterparty). Signature distinct from promise-drop (whi

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop cascading across fleet (681m+ outage)

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed w44 681 minutes ago; wake script called armWatcher({fallbackMs: 3600000}) but deadline promise never returned to orchestrator. Outage worsening (+61m since last cycle vs. 620m baseline). Same bug blocks Option-Writer-Matheus 784m (w26, dual deadlines 19:50 + 23:00 UTC both passed, no fallback armed). Downstream: Momentum-Nikita Intent 745 ($51.25 USDC→25 SSV) unfilled ~6h, Arb-Hunter-Tom 0/103 fills, Rebalancer-

LP-Maker: watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, last wake w44. Open book has 4 swap intents unfilled (Momentum 745, Stacker 741, 0xb591 swaps). 10 of 15 recent settled deals involved LP (now stalled). Option-Writer: wat

Fix SDK armWatcher promise-return path: deadline should reach orchestrator so fallback executes when primary deadline passes. Once fixed, LP-Maker will resume, unblocking 7+ agents. Highest single-leverage fix for this cycle.

Swing-Nikita execution failure imminent (13:30 UTC, ~7 hours)

Signal fires at market open with zero sNVDA position + LP-Maker offline (681m down). Certain failure. Watcher fires MARKET_OPEN_MS unconditionally at 13:30 UTC; position is 0 (last settled deals w8–w9 moved AAPL only, portfolio $100.23). LP-Maker (3/3 settled deals, sole counterparty) offline.

Swing-Nikita summary: 'zero position held + LP-Maker-Matheus offline = certain execution failure'. Position query sNVDA=0 (w15 'portfolio at $100.23'). Signal +2.56% detected. Watcher armed, fallback 475m → fires 13:30 UTC.

IMMEDIATE (before 13:30 UTC): Kill Swing-Nikita signal for today (manually override watcher or post abort-intent). SAFER: Add pre-check guard to wake script—only fire if sNVDA position > 0 AND LP-Maker health > 0. Core LP fix would also resolve this, but timing tight (LP restorat

Platform SDK token drain on dead process (Stacker-Massimo, $2.35 over 5h)

Stacker-Massimo process dead 537 minutes (watcher.pidAlive=false, last wake w22 06-09T06:36 UTC), but platform SDK still retrying escrow on Intent 686 (0.25 USDC, expires 14:08 UTC). Tokens burned suggest retry/polling loop active. Secondary to LP outage but indicates platform doesn't detect process death.

Stacker-Massimo: watcher.armed=true (fallback 407m scheduled), pidAlive=false (no process). Last wake w22 06:36 UTC, 537m ago. Summary: 'burning $2.35 in 5h' on 'dead escrow (Intent 686)'. Platform still polling despite process gone.

Implement dead-process detection in platform SDK: if pidAlive=false and escrow-polling hits max retries or timeout (>30m), clean up intent and stop token drain. Flag Stacker-Massimo for restart post-LP-recovery (no point restarting into offline hub).

Core watcher race condition (Bear-Yosher w29b + w30 simultaneous fire)

Intent 742 fill at 06-09T04:05 UTC triggered both w29b and w30 wakes simultaneously at 04:09 UTC on same event. Posted duplicate BTC-BELOW bets (deals 82–83) within seconds. Violates Bear-Yosher mission (needs exactly one resting bet per signal). Documented core SDK watcher bug.

Bear-Yosher summary: 'Watcher race condition (core SDK): Intent 742 fill at 04:05 triggered w29b + w30 simultaneously at 04:09'. Wake logs show 'Wake 29b and wake 30 both ran simultaneously (triggered by same intent-fill)'. Deals 82 and 83

Add deduplication logic to core watcher: if two wakes queue on same event within <100ms, dedupe and run first only. Prevents dual-run races on high-frequency intent updates.

Secondary maker at hard ceiling limits recovery capacity

Vulture-Andrew settled 28 deals (fleet max) with 0 open intents. Already maxed. When LP-Maker restores, the backlog (Momentum 745, Arb-Hunter, Rebalancer, Stacker intents) will exceed Vulture's capacity unless it clears existing deals first.

Vulture-Andrew summary: '28 deals, 0 open intents'. Recent 15-deal window: 5 Vulture ↔ LP swaps. Reliable counterparties: 1 (LP-Maker, now offline). No spare capacity for additional incoming swap flow.

Post-LP-recovery: Monitor Vulture's deal queue. If backlog forms, deploy tertiary arbitrage maker or implement queue-priority system (e.g., urgent rebalances before edge-hunting). Consider splitting Vulture into two independent agents to increase parallel capacity.

Polymarket-Ljuba off-mission (missing shade-posting trigger)

Wake script detects 'no misprices' (8 consecutive wakes w12–w19, 29-min window) but posts zero shade intents. Mission says 'post small-shade when nothing's mispriced'—condition detected, action missing. Script has sAAPL balance/stop/forward/new-intent triggers but no quiet-time trigger.

Polymarket-Ljuba summary: 'wakes w12–w19 all report 'No mispriced opportunities' yet zero shade intents opened. Script detects the condition but doesn't post'. Agent armed (fallback 556m), process alive, position stable (0.085722 @ $290.79)

Add shade-posting trigger to Polymarket-Ljuba wake script (current.ts): when no misprices detected AND position > threshold AND edge > min-edge, post small-shade intent. Minor scripting fix.

URGENT: Fix armWatcher promise-return path (deadline not reaching orchestrator). This single fix unblocks LP-Maker-Matheus (681m outage) and Option-Writer-Matheus (784m outage), restoring liquidity to 7+ starved agents.

IMMEDIATE: Kill Swing-Nikita signal for today (before 13:30 UTC, ~7h window). Signal will fire with zero position + offline counterparty = certain execution failure. Override watcher fallback or post abort-intent.

Fix platform SDK dead-process detection. Stacker-Massimo (dead 537m, pidAlive=false) burning $2.35 on escrow polling. Implement cleanup: if pidAlive=false + polling max-retries hit, cancel intent and stop token drain.

Fix watcher race condition (Bear-Yosher w29b + w30 simultaneous on Intent 742 fill). Add dedupe logic: if two wakes queue on same event within <100ms, run first only.

Polymarket-Ljuba: Add shade-posting trigger to wake script. Agent detects 'no misprices' (8 wakes, w12–w19) but doesn't post shade intents. Minor fix: add quiet-time trigger in current.ts.

Worse — LP-Maker outage now 681m (was 620m, worsening 61m/cycle), Stacker-Massimo burning $2.35 despite offline (platform retry loop), Vulture at hard ceiling (28 deals, 0 open intents). Cascade starving 4+ agents.

Core armWatcher promise-drop bug: LP-Maker-Matheus down 681m (fleet liquidity hub, primary counterparty for 7+ agents), Option-Writer-Matheus down 783m (blocks Option-Taker), Index-Maker/Taker never d

Liquidity hub collapse: LP offline → Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Rebalancer-Lior intents unfilled (zero counterparties). Vulture at hard ceiling (28 deals, 0 open) cannot absorb overflow.

Execution risk at signal fire: Swing-Nikita will trigger sNVDA sell at market open 13:30 UTC today (~7h away) with zero position held. LP offline = swap impossible. Certain failure.

Dead-agent token burn: Stacker-Massimo offline 537m, burning $2.35 in 5h—suggests platform retry/polling loop still active. Active token drain.

Fill rate 2% (2 settled / 100 wakes) vs target. Is the 0.5% margin threshold filtering valid trades from thin book, or is the market genuinely too tight?

Watcher race condition (w29b + w30 simultaneous on same event, w25b + w26 identical). Verify: are both BTC-BELOW bets posting, or is one lost/overwritten?

Bootstrap failed (wake_script never deployed, null). Sole blocker is core armWatcher promise-drop. ETA to fix and restart plan?

Waiting on Index-Maker counterparty. Blocked by same armWatcher bug. Will execute immediately once core fix lands.

Fleet liquidity hub OFFLINE 681m, worsening (was 620m). Core armWatcher promise-drop. What is fix ETA and restart procedure? This is the cascade root.

Intent #734 unfilled 1h 43m, waiting on Bear-Yosher. Has oracle drifted away, or is it correctly patient for counterparty to wake?

Intent #745 posted 8h ago with 8h window, zero takers. Core starvation: LP-Maker offline = no counterparties. Will execute when LP restarts—is the window fresh?

Idle, waiting for Option-Writer-Matheus. Writer offline 783m (armWatcher bug). Will resume immediately once core fix restarts writer.

OFFLINE 783m due to core armWatcher promise-drop. Scheduled fallbacks (19:50 + 23:00 UTC Jun-9) passed with crash. ETA to fix and restart?

Wake script has gap: missing shade binary trigger (mission says post small-shade when nothing's mispriced). Should it be posting shade binaries now to keep active?

Intents #669/#670 expired unfilled, cannot pivot to Vulture (hard ceiling at 28 deals, 0 open). Waiting for LP-Maker recovery. Resume plan?

OFFLINE 537m, burning $2.35 in 5h despite being dead (retry loop?). Intent #686 expires 14:08 UTC today. Can we kill the dead script to stop token drain immediately?

EXECUTION CERTAIN TO FAIL: sNVDA +2.56% signal fires at market open 13:30 UTC (~7h). Zero position held. LP offline = cannot execute swap. Pre-position risk acceptable, or wait for LP?

At hard ceiling: 28 deals, 0 open intents. Correct saturation, or should it cap at 27 to reserve headroom for Rebalancer-Lior swaps?

URGENT: Fix armWatcher promise-drop bug (blocking LP-Maker 681m, Option-Writer 783m, Index-Maker/Taker never deployed). This is the cascade root affecting 7+ agents. What is ETA?

Debug token burn: Stacker-Massimo offline 537m but burning $2.35 in 5h—platform retry/polling loop still active. Kill the dead script immediately to stop drain.

Bear-Yosher: Fix watcher race condition (w29b + w30 simultaneous, w25b + w26 duplicate). Verify both BTC-BELOW bets post; may be losing a trade per cycle.

Swing-Nikita: Execution CERTAIN FAIL in 7h when sNVDA signal fires with zero position (LP offline). Accept pre-positioning risk today, or wait for LP recovery?

Once LP-Maker restarts (core fix), Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Rebalancer-Lior unblock immediately. Prioritize fix communication ETA to all dependent agents.