Arb-Hunter-Tom

#1636 swap at +30bps clears all bars: above 10bps floor, USDC approved, affordable, no feed mismatch. No binary meets la

new intent >1639 ≥10bps OR binary bet ≤30min — 30-min fallback

Summary: Re-armed since last cycle (armed=false/pidAlive=false → armed=true/pidAlive=true, 27-min fallback live). The ~13:00–14:05 UTC recovery window let w219/w220/w221 run: w219 fixed the critical BinaryBet templateHash bug (0x09cd1684→0x85aeb4de), w220 correctly passed on #1616 (reversed, not in money), w221 captured deal #151 (swap #1636 +30bps) — 17→18 total dea

Watcher successfully re-armed (armed=true, pidAlive=true, 27-min fallback) versus last cycle's fully-dead state, but wakes still fail 401. The brief recovery window yielded deal #151 (swap #1636 +30bps, 17→18 deals) and a critical templateHash fix. Auth has since re-collapsed; LP-Maker's 12-intent book is the queued opportunity for the next auth-cleared window.

401 on every wake; fleet-wide auth collapse. Recovery window ~13:00–14:05 UTC cleared enough for w219/w220/w221 and deal #151, then re-collapsed. LP-Maker-Matheus (primary counterparty, 10/12 shown deals) and Rebalancer-Lior are also stuck with same error — not agent-specific.

Sound and on-mission during the recovery window. w219 applied a correct self-fix (wrong templateHash would have missed all new binary bets); w220 correctly rejected #1616 (reversed, not near-decided); w221 identified swap #1636 at +30bps, cleared all pre-fill bars, and filled. No churn. Feed-mismatch guard and margin floor applied correctly throughout.

New intent > HIGH_WATER (1639) with SSV buy- or sell-edge ≥10bps vs CEX

New BinaryBet intent matching hash 0x85aeb4de (corrected w219)

10 of 12 shown settled deals; 12 open intents currently on book (~58-min TTL); sole reliable swap counterparty

stuck (wakes_failing 401), but 12 intent

1 settled deal; occasionally posts swaps arb-hunter can snipe

Both pure takers; no maker surface overlap

Unmeasurable since w221 (14:05 UTC): wakes_failing means agent can't see the book. LP-Maker's 12 open intents (posted w127 ~58-min TTL) may include SSV-edge swaps above the 10bps floor — quantifiable only on auth recovery.

HIGH_WATER incremented each wake (1597→1623→1639) — no re-fire on stale intents

BinaryBet templateHash corrected at w219 — watcher now fires on the right hash

SSV CEX feed cached 30s from Binance with fallback to cache on error; feed-mismatch guard present

Both buy-edge and sell-edge covered for SSV legs

30-min fallback appropriate for a taker waiting on book events — not over-polling

BINARY_BET_HASHES contains only one hash (SSV); ORACLE_SYMBOL already decodes BTC (0x406536...) and ETH (0x694aa1...) addresses but watcher won't fire on new BT

wokenBets set grows unbounded across restarts — no TTL or pruning on the persisted JSON

Add BTC and ETH BinaryBet templateHashes to BINARY_BET_HASHES — the ORACLE_SYMBOL decode infrastructure already exists and the mission explicitly targets 'near-decided binary bets' across surfaces, not just SSV.

Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse blocking all wakes

401 on every wake across ~12/14 agents. LP-Maker's 12-intent book and Vulture's 9 intents will expire unrefreshed. Arb-hunter's watcher is re-armed and waiting, but each fallback fire will 401 until auth is restored.

Rotate / restore API auth credentials fleet-wide — single blocker for all agents.

BTC/ETH BinaryBet templateHashes missing from watcher

BINARY_BET_HASHES only contains the SSV binary bet hash; the agent's mission names BTC/ETH binary bets as a primary take surface. If those templates carry different hashes, the watcher silently skips them.

Identify and add BTC/ETH BinaryBet templateHashes to the BINARY_BET_HASHES Set in current.ts.

Bear-Yosher

No resting bear bet. Strike $67,000 = 4.28% above BTC $64,260 — solid conviction cushion. Human-triggered wake counts as

intent 1626 resolved | new BinaryBet | BTC>$65,297 | ETH>$1,690 | 5h fallback

Summary: After the 4-day auth blackout, w42–w44 fired during the 13:00–13:45 UTC Jun 14 window: w42 recovered $48 USDC and re-anchored bear at $66k; w43 correctly triggered HALT (≥3/4 legs up, ETH+BTC both >+2%, cancelled #1610); w44 (human-triggered) confirmed HALT cleared (BTC $64,260 — below the $66k anchor) and resumed SHORT, posting intent 1626 (BTC BELOW $67,00

HALT correctly cleared by w44: BTC $64,260 is 4.28% below the new $67,000 strike, so intent 1626 is correctly positioned. The only live risk is the ~1h intentTTL: listing expires ~14:44 UTC Jun 14 and the watcher's expiry-resolved trigger will fire into a 401 wall — no repost until auth clears. Root cause is the platform-wide 401 collapse, not agent logic.

401 on every wake since ~13:45 UTC Jun 14; watcher pidAlive=true/armed=true (polling runs fine) but fireWake() → LLM call produces 401 — fleet-wide credential collapse confirmed across ≥12/14 agents

Sound and on-mission during the auth window. HALT fired at the correct threshold (≥3/4 legs up, ETH+BTC both >+2%), anchor re-calibrated from $63.5k → $66k (w42) → $67k (w44) with appropriate conviction cushion each step. Human-triggered w44 override was a legitimate resume of SHORT posture after HALT cleared. No reasoning churn observed across w42–w44.

intent 1626 resolved (filled or expired)

new BinaryBet on book (template hash 0x85ae...6f9f)

MISSING: no in-watcher HALT guard — if BTC rallies past $65,297 and auth is down, the wake fires but 401 blocks the cancel

Primary swap counterparty for sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT basket; 114 deals, 12-intent book — sole liquidity hub

Takes near-decided binaries and mispriced swaps (39 deals); could fill a deeply in-the-money bear bet

Latency arb on binaries near resolution — would take intent 1626 only if BTC is clearly below $67k near expiry

Unmeasurable while auth down — watcher's book scan runs but fireWake() calls fail; no taker scans have executed since 13:44 UTC. Intent 1626 ($67k strike, BTC $64,260 at post time) sits passively and may attract a fill independently.

Intent-resolved trigger is the tightest refire for exactly-one-resting invariant — fires the moment 1626 fills or expires

1.5% adverse-move wires (BTC >$65,297, ETH >$1,690) sit below the HALT threshold (~+2%), giving an early posture re-check before a full HALT would trigger

BinaryBet scan uses the correct template hash — pure taker opportunity detection, not noisy

5h fallback and 60s loop cadence are appropriate for a patient directional agent

No autonomous HALT guard in watcher: if BTC rallies through $65,297 while auth is down, the wake fires into a 401 wall and the resting intent stays exposed

~1h intentTTL means listing expires ~14:44 UTC Jun 14; auth-down wakes after expiry cannot repost, breaking the exactly-one-resting invariant

Extend intentTTL on bear anchors to 4–6h (vs 1h) so a short auth outage doesn't strand the agent bookless; the intent-resolved trigger still catches fills/expiries promptly. This is an agent-level CLAUDE.md / posting param change.

401 auth collapse blocks all wakes fleet-wide

watcher armed/pidAlive but every fireWake() produces 401; intent 1626 listing expires ~14:44 UTC Jun 14 with no repost possible until auth clears. Fleet-wide — ≥12/14 agents affected.

Restore fleet auth credentials; once cleared, the expiry-resolved trigger fires automatically and agent can repost — no agent-side change needed for recovery

Short intentTTL (~1h) breaks exactly-one-resting invariant during auth outages

Intent 1626 posted 13:44 UTC Jun 14 with ~1h TTL expires ~14:44 UTC. If auth is still down, deposit unlocks to USDC wallet but no repost is possible. Mission continuity (bear anchor always resting) breaks until the next successful wake.

Post bear anchors with intentTTL 4–6h in CLAUDE.md posting logic; the watcher's intent-resolved trigger still handles fills promptly, but the listing survives short auth outages without breaking the invariant

Index-Maker

Summary: 30th+ consecutive null cycle — no change from prior run. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No provisioning signal, wallet assignment, or config change observed this cycle. IndexBasket market segment remains fully offline. Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse is irrelevant here

index-maker has 0 wakes, 0 lifetime tokens, null address, null wake_script_source, and watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false for 30+ consecutive cycles. No provisioning signal of any kind this cycle. The IndexBasket market segment is structurally absent from the fleet.

address=null, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null, metrics.wakes=0, metrics.tokens_lifetime_usd=0 — agent has never been provisioned

N/A — agent has never executed; no reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake script exists; agent is unprovisioned

index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents — the natural counterparty pair

also unprovisioned — armed=false/pidAliv

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never been deployed and has no wake script

wake_script_source is null — no script exists at all

Provision the agent: assign a wallet address, write and deploy a wake script that posts a LONG IndexBasket intent (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publishes the verified contract source to the indexer.

Agent never provisioned — no wallet, no wake script, no watcher

30+ cycles with address=null, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false/pidAlive=false. The agent cannot post intents, publish contract source, or interact with the fleet in any way. index-taker is in the same state — the entire IndexBasket market segment is absent.

Assign a wallet address, deploy a wake script implementing the IndexBasket intent authoring + source-publication loop, and arm the watcher. Coordinate with index-taker provisioning so both sides of the market come online together.

Index-Taker

Summary: 31st consecutive null cycle — zero change from prior 30 runs. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No provisioning signal this cycle. The fleet-wide 401 AUTH collapse is entirely irrelevant — this agent was never deployed in the first place. Index-maker (sole natural counterparty) remains he

Index-taker has executed 0 wakes across its entire lifetime ($0 tokens). It is not crashed — it was never provisioned. Its only natural counterparty (index-maker) is identically undeployed. No IndexBasket market segment exists on this fleet at all, and no provisioning signal has appeared in 31 consecutive observer cycles.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens — not a runtime failure, a provisioning gap. Index-maker is in identical state; no LONG IndexBasket intents have ever appeared on the book for index-taker to audit and cross.

N/A — agent has never executed a wake; no reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no watcher deployed — wake_script_source=null, armed=false

Sole natural counterparty — index-taker takes SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-maker is meant to author and post.

Also never deployed; health=unknown; 0 l

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent never deployed, no wake script, no book visibility ever established.

wake_script_source=null — no watcher exists at all; cannot evaluate cadence, triggers, fallback, or fit-to-mission.

Deploy the agent (provision container, install wake script). Until then, all wake-script analysis is moot.

Agent never provisioned — 31 null cycles

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 tokens. This is not a runtime crash or auth failure — the agent container/process has never been started. No IndexBasket SHORT side exists on the fleet.

Provision the index-taker container and deploy its wake script. Coordinate with index-maker deployment — both must exist simultaneously or the market is one-sided from day one.

Chicken-and-egg with index-maker: both sides undeployed simultaneously

Index-taker's mission requires LONG IndexBasket intents on the book (posted by index-maker). Index-maker is also health=unknown, never deployed, 0 wakes. Neither side can bootstrap independently.

Deploy index-maker first (it's the maker/publisher); index-taker's watcher should then fire on book presence of IndexBasket LONG intents. Stage the deployment: maker → confirm intents appear on book → deploy taker.

LP-Maker-Matheus

12/12 book principle; SSV critically thin after fill. No fillable external intents.

Cluster U expiry prefire ~15:11 UTC | price guards ETH/BTC/SSV/stocks | new swap | 70min fallback

Summary: w127–w131 (13:03–14:14 UTC) all executed cleanly: 12/12 book rebuilt (w127, 12 TXs), two no-action confirmations (w128/w129), watcher self-restarted (w130), then Cluster R prefire fired early on new sAAPL intent #1627 (w131, 24 TXs, 12/12 live). Auth re-collapsed post-w131; watcher is alive (PID alive, 66-min fallback) with next time-trigger at EXPIRY_FIRE_T

Book is 11/12 live as of w131 (14:14 UTC, 24 TXs). Auth re-collapsed after w131; watcher time-trigger will fire at ~15:11 UTC targeting Cluster U prefire, but if the 401 persists, that wake fails and Cluster U expires unrefreshed at ~15:18 UTC. The critical path is entirely auth-recovery-dependent — a platform problem, not an agent problem.

Platform-wide 401 auth collapse re-triggered post-w131 (~14:14 UTC); watcher fires at 15:11 UTC but the LLM agent invocation will 401 if auth is not restored by then; same credential failure seen across ~12/14 fleet agents this cycle

Sound and on-mission. w131's targeted Cluster R prefire (fired early on new #1627 sAAPL intent) was precise and effective — 24 TXs, 12/12 live. Current w131 watcher correctly calculates Cluster U prefire at EXPIRY_FIRE_TS=1781448680 (~15:11 UTC). The wake cadence (53-min avg gap, time-triggered prefire) is well-matched to ~60-min intent TTLs. No reasoning churn detected.

Time: EXPIRY_FIRE_TS ~15:11 UTC (7 min before Cluster U first expiry at ~15:18 UTC)

Price: any of 6 assets (ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) crossing guard ranges

New fillable swap intent from non-self poster on open book

MISSING: readOpenIntents has no try/catch — 401 throws into runWatchLoop iteration, losing the seen-set and disrupting new-swap delta detection; time trigger (c

11 fills in recent batch (w127 window); primary swap taker against LP book

6 fills in recent batch; active swap taker

4 fills in recent batch; takes inverted/mispriced quotes

3 fills in recent batch; DCA taker against LP asks

7+ fills in recent batch — most active single counterparty this window; external wallet

Unmeasurable during auth blackout — watcher poll's readOpenIntents 401s under current auth collapse (no try/catch), so new-swap detection is non-functional; price guards (wrapped in try/catch) and the time trigger (checked before any auth call) remain operational. Passive book fills from 0xBd6a or fleet takers may have settled without agent awareness.

Time trigger checked FIRST in callback — fires fireWake before any auth-dependent call, making the Cluster U prefire auth-immune even under 401 conditions

Price guards wrapped in try/catch — 401s on readPrice don't crash the loop

70-min fallback appropriate for ~60-min TTL intent clusters

New-swap detection scoped to non-self fillable swaps — correctly ignores own quotes to avoid self-trigger

readOpenIntents has no try/catch — 401 throws propagate into runWatchLoop, losing the seen-set state and breaking new-swap delta on each failed iteration

Fallback at ~15:44 UTC arrives ~26 min AFTER Cluster U expiry (~15:18 UTC) — time trigger is the only safety; if the process dies before 15:11 UTC, book expires

Wrap the readOpenIntents call in try/catch (mirror the price guard pattern) — a 401 throw currently loses the seen-set, forcing re-initialization on the next poll and producing a false 'no new intents' result that silences the new-swap trig

Platform 401 auth collapse blocking LLM wake execution fleet-wide

Post-w131 (~14:14 UTC) auth re-collapsed; ~12/14 agents show wakes_failing=true with same 401 credential error. LP-Maker's Cluster U prefire fires at 15:11 UTC but will fail 401 if unresolved, leaving 12 open intents to expire at ~15:18 UTC unrefreshed.

Restore auth credentials fleet-wide before 15:11 UTC to allow LP-Maker's Cluster U prefire to execute; this is a platform credential rotation, not an agent-level fix.

readOpenIntents missing try/catch in watcher poll loop

The new-swap detection block calls readOpenIntents without error handling. Under 401 conditions the throw propagates into runWatchLoop, resetting the seen-set and causing one missed-delta cycle per 401. Price guards correctly use try/catch as the pattern.

Wrap the readOpenIntents block in try/catch (same as price guards) so 401s are swallowed and the seen-set is preserved across auth-failure iterations.

Mimic-Ljuba

Both BinaryBets have technically ≥3pp edge but require unfavorable moves (rally or reversal on flat day). Sunday calm, l

new BinaryBet appears (60 min fallback — after stock market opens)

Summary: Focus question resolved: intent #1616 (posted w93 13:11 UTC, 1h horizon, BTC above $64,302) lapsed without fill by 14:11 UTC — w95 confirms openExposure dropped $6→$0 while portfolio held flat at $95.62, meaning no successor was needed and no position was lost. The '[object Object]' bug in w93 masked the LLM reasoning string but DID NOT block the post (inten

Mimic-Ljuba is healthy operationally: both portfolio jumps (+$32 total to $95.62) are explained, the expiring intent lapsed cleanly at 14:11 UTC (openExposure $6→$0, no loss), and the '[object Object]' w93 bug was cosmetic — the intent posted. Agent is now frozen by the fleet-wide 401 re-collapse; watcher armed with 99-min fallback will fail again on auth unless the platform clears.

wakes_failing=true, 401 auth; fleet-wide collapse resumed after 13:45 UTC recovery window; w93–w95 all ran during the 45-min recovery; last wake 24 min ago (w95 14:11), next fallback in 99 min will also 401 unless auth restores

Sound during active wakes, solving the right problem. W94 correctly declined #1609 (thin edge + directional conflict with own open above-bet). W95 correctly declined two technically-≥3pp bets citing Sunday calm vol and unfavourable setup — disciplined edge discipline, not churn. '[object Object]' bug in w93 prevents audit of that wake's reasoning text, but intentPosted:true confirms execution was

New BinaryBet intent matching one of two hardcoded template hashes (0x85ae..., 0x09cd...)

MISSING: No trigger on near-expiry of existing intents — the most takeable bets (near-decided, short TTL) appear via staleness, not new-post events

Primary BinaryBet poster (113 deals, 12 open intents); mimic copies or accepts its binary flow

Posts baited near-decided binaries mimic could accept; 9 open intents on book

Posts directional BTC/ETH binary bets mimic could mirror

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book during auth blackout; LP-Maker's 12 resting intents and Vulture's 9 intents are on-book but mimic cannot wake to evaluate or take them

Zero-LLM watcher fires on exactly the event a copy-trader acts on: a new BinaryBet appearing

Discriminates by templateHash rather than 'book non-empty' — won't fire on irrelevant swap flow

60-min fallback appropriate for avg 91-min cadence; comment explains reasoning (stock open at 13:30 UTC)

Two hardcoded template hashes — silent blindness if LP-Maker rotates BinaryBet contract or a new poster uses a different template

No trigger on near-expiry of existing resting intents — near-decided bets (highest EV for a taker) become actionable via TTL shortening, not new-post events, so

Discover active BinaryBet templateHashes dynamically at loop startup from readOpenIntents rather than hardcoding — prevents silent miss if counterparties rotate contracts

Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse (re-collapsed after 13:45 UTC)

wakes_failing=true on all stuck agents; mimic's 99-min fallback will fire but will 401 again. Only the 13:00–13:45 UTC window produced activity (w93–w95). This is the same systemic block as last run.

Restore auth token / refresh in shared SDK auth layer; affects all 14 agents

'[object Object]' serialization in wake action label (w93)

Wake log writes '[object Object]' instead of the LLM's reasoning string. Intent posted successfully (intentPosted:true in JSON tail), so execution was unaffected — but LLM reasoning is unauditable for that wake.

Stringify the action summary object (JSON.stringify or template literal) before writing to the wake label; single-line fix in the wake output path

Hardcoded BinaryBet template hashes in current.ts

Set contains exactly two hashes (0x85ae..., 0x09cd...); any new BinaryBet contract or counterparty posting under a different template will be invisble to the watcher indefinitely.

At loop startup, read live intents and build the hash set from templateHash field values — or pull from a shared sdk/config list maintained alongside LP-Maker's templates

Momentum-Nikita

Signal not cleared; micro-lot watcher false alarm from #1636 (0.025 mSSV = $0.06). Fixed filter.

Leader gap ≥2pp | new SSV seller ≥$2 at oracle | US mkt close 20:00 UTC | 9h fallback

Summary: Process recovered: pidAlive is true again (was false last summary — resolved). Still hitting 401 auth collapse fleet-wide — wakes_failing, zero execution possible until auth restores. During 13:00–14:05 UTC recovery window, w32–w34 showed disciplined holds (gap 0.08pp noise at w32, SSV sellers at premium at w33) plus a sound micro-lot filter self-fix (≥$2 no

wakes_failing=true (401 fleet auth collapse, not agent-specific); process alive (pidAlive recovered true). 9 deals all via LP-Maker-Matheus (8/9). W32–W34 reasoning was sound — no edge cleared during recovery window. 9h fallback creates a rotation blind-spot: reduce to 4h to cap the gap without adding polling noise.

Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse; w32–w34 watcher triggers fired correctly but agent execution blocked at every wake. Not momentum-nikita-specific — same error across ~12/14 agents.

Sound and on-mission. W32 correctly called 0.08pp gap noise despite 3-day SSV drift; w33 skipped SSV seller at premium; w34 self-corrected micro-lot filter bug by adding ≥$2 notional guard. Solving the right problem — rotation detection + fair-value entry discipline. No churn.

Leader-vs-2nd gap ≥2pp (full universe market hours, crypto-only after close)

New fair-value SSV seller ≥$2 notional at ≤oracle*1.005

US market close 20:00 UTC Jun 14 (re-rank crypto-only universe)

MISSING: intermediate fallback (4–5h) — during quiet gap periods the only mid-period checkpoint is 20:00 UTC, leaving a 3h+ post-close blind-spot

8/9 deals; fleet's sole swap liquidity hub, 12-intent book with ~58-min TTL from last post

auth-blocked (wakes_failing 401); book m

1 prior deal; can cross as taker on mispriced swaps

1 prior deal; occasional swap counterparty on portfolio rebalance

none — w32–w34 correctly assessed no fillable edge during recovery window; SSV sellers were at premium or below $2 notional threshold

Gap trigger (≥2pp leader vs 2nd) is tightly fit to the rotation-detection mission

Micro-lot guard (≥$2 notional) added in w34 eliminates false alarms on dust trades like #1636 ($0.06)

US market close checkpoint at 20:00 UTC prevents missing crypto-universe re-rank

Crypto-only mode after close correctly narrows universe — SSV/BTC/ETH only

Zero-LLM; baseline captured dynamically on first poll, no hardcoded literals

9h fallback is too long for momentum: during a quiet gap period (no 2pp trigger, no SSV sellers), agent sleeps until ~23:05 UTC — a 3h+ post-close blind-spot af

Reduce fallbackMs from 9 * 3600_000 to 4 * 3600_000. The 20:00 UTC market-close trigger covers the mid-day checkpoint; a 4h fallback caps the worst-case rotation blind-spot to ≤4h without adding sub-minute polling noise.

Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse blocks all execution

wake_error='Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials' across ~12/14 agents including momentum-nikita. Not agent-specific.

Restore auth credentials / API key in shared environment. No agent-level fix is possible until this clears.

9h fallback too long for rotation detection

During quiet gap periods (e.g. w32: entire field +1.5–2.3%, gap=0.08pp noise), neither the 2pp gap trigger nor the SSV-seller trigger fires. The only mid-period checkpoint is 20:00 UTC market close, leaving a 3h+ window post-close (~20:00–23:05 UTC) where a leadership rotation goes undetected.

Set fallbackMs: 4 * 3600_000 in armWatcher call (line ~24 of wake_script_source). Caps blind-spot to ≤4h at any point without introducing polling noise.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Wake 32 check: new audited Option appeared; must evaluate. Premium is genuinely cheap (4% of notional vs 6% for intent #

new audited Option intent appears (template 0xb3d66f4...) OR 2h fallback

Summary: BROKEN since w30 (06-14T10:48) on 401 auth — same collapse as prior run, no change in root cause. New this cycle: w31 confirmed correct rejection of #1600 (quantified as 5-sigma move required at $0.54 premium, OTM). w32 (13:49, just after recovery window) found new intent #1641 (ETH call $1,681.72, $0.24 premium) and rated it 'genuinely cheap (4% of notional

Agent found genuine edge at w32: #1641 (ETH call $1,681.72, $0.24 premium, 4% of notional) passed its own edge bar but 401 blocked execution. Worse: #1641 is already in seenIntentIds so the watcher won't auto-re-fire on auth recovery — the 114-min fallback outlasts the ~58-min expiry, making this a structural miss. This is the first concrete confirmed missed-opportunity since auth collapsed.

401 on every LLM wake since w30 (06-14T10:48); watcher armed (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=114) so process is alive but execution is dead. Sole counterparty 0x57F8…B0ff (option-writer-matheus) posted #1641 during the brief 13:00–13:45 recovery window; agent evaluated at w32 and found edge but coul

Sound through w32 — correctly rejected #1600 twice (w30: 'coin-flip at fair premium, strike too tight'; w31: quantified as 5-sigma move required for a 2.25h window), then correctly flagged #1641 as genuinely cheap. Reasoning quality is not the problem. The miss is a watcher design gap: once an intent enters seenIntentIds, an auth outage + recovery cycle silently loses it.

new audited Option intent (templateHash 0xb3d66f4…) not in seenIntentIds — fires immediately on discovery

MISSING: re-evaluation trigger for intents already in seenIntentIds that were seen-but-not-acted-on during an auth outage

sole historical counterparty — all 5 settled deals ↔ 0x57F8…B0ff; posted #1641 during recovery window proving it is the only option supply o

auth-broken / stuck — posted intents whi

Intent #1641 (ETH call $1,681.72, $0.24 premium, ~58-min expiry from Step-1 query time) — agent's own w32 evaluation rated it 'genuinely cheap (4% of notional vs 6%)' and it cleared the edge bar, but 401 blocked the take; seenIntentIds gap prevents auto-retry on auth recovery; 114-min fallback arrives after expiry.

polls every 60s filtered by exact templateHash — surgical, zero-LLM, cheap

seenIntentIds correctly prevents redundant re-fires on already-evaluated stale intents

2h fallback ensures periodic evaluation even in a quiet book

seenIntentIds gap: an intent seen during an auth outage (evaluated=false) is indistinguishable from one seen-and-rejected — both are silently skipped on recover

no expiry-urgency signal: a seen intent with 58 min left that passed the edge bar gets no priority re-wake even after auth restores

Replace bare Set<string> seenIntentIds with Map<string, {evaluated: boolean, expiryTs: number}>; on each poll, also fireWake() if any seen intent has evaluated=false AND Date.now() < expiryTs — catches the auth-outage-then-recovery pattern

401 auth collapse blocking all LLM wakes fleet-wide

Every LLM wake dies on 401 since ~13:45 UTC across ~12/14 agents including this one. Primary blocker; routes to core not agent.

Rotate/refresh auth credentials at platform level; add retry-with-backoff in SDK wake runner so a transient 401 doesn't silently kill the entire wake.

seenIntentIds gap loses auth-outage edges on recovery

Intent #1641 ($0.24 ETH call rated cheap at w32) is in seenIntentIds — watcher won't re-fire on it even if auth clears in the next 10 min. 114-min fallback outlasts its ~58-min expiry. This pattern repeats every auth outage.

Track {intentId: {evaluated: bool, expiryTs}} instead of bare Set; re-fire on any un-evaluated, non-expired intent each poll cycle.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Prove option-writing wiring first; rebalance (rotate sMSFT→sAAPL) on next wake after confirming options mechanics.

option intent resolves (filled or expired)

Summary: w116 (06-14T14:01) posted ETH call intent 0x...0669 (strike $1,682, $0.24 / 4% premium, 6 USDC collateral, 2h term) before auth re-collapsed — $0.73 LLM burn confirms a real wake. All subsequent wakes are 401-failing (wakes_failing=true). Watcher is armed and alive (nextFallbackMin=43, pidAlive=true), watching specifically for that intent to resolve or expir

Agent is alive (armed=true, 43-min fallback live) but every post-w116 wake 401s. The one live ETH call (intent 0x...0669, expires ~16:01 UTC, ~110 min from post) is the sole active position — if auth stays down past expiry, the intent unwinds unfilled and the 30% option sleeve goes dark. Option-taker-matheus is the only natural counterparty and is also 401-stuck; fill probability near-zero without auth recovery.

watcher.armed=true / pidAlive=true / nextFallbackMin=43 confirms process is up; wakes_failing=true with 401 on every wake since w116 (14:01 UTC). No tool or gate issue — the agent simply can't authenticate to fire a wake that could refresh/cancel the live intent or execute the deferred rebalance.

Sound and on-mission. w116 log shows the agent correctly sequenced: prove option-writing wiring first (posted the call), defer rebalance to next wake. The staged approach is disciplined. The open question (from Step-1 focus) on competitive ETH call pricing: strike $1,682 with 4% premium for a 2h term — if current ETH oracle is near $1,682 (ATM), 4% is aggressive/generous for takers; if ETH has mov

ownIntentResolved polling every 10s on intent 0x...0669

50-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=43 → fires ~14:51 UTC, before option expiry at ~16:01 UTC)

MISSING: no accelerator if option-taker-matheus posts a matching intent on the book — watcher is blind to counterparty-side activity

sole mission-matched taker for ETH calls; 5 settled deals confirm it has taken writer intents before

stuck / wakes_failing (401) — cannot act

takes near-decided or clearly mispriced intents; would only touch this call if ETH moves sharply above $1,682 making it deeply ITM (near-dec

swap-only market maker; does not take options

none attributable to the agent — the option sleeve produced one intent (0x...0669); the deferred contrarian rebalance (sMSFT→sAAPL) is a missed cycle but was explicitly staged by w116 reasoning, not an oversight. With auth down, no swap or option opportunity on the book is reachable regardless.

Hardcoded to exactly one intent ID — correct for this single-intent wake where the mission is 'watch this option resolve or expire'; avoids false triggers on an

Zero-LLM watcher: pure on-chain poll with ownIntentResolved, no token burn while waiting

50-min fallback fires before the 2h option expiry (~16:01 UTC), giving the agent a recovery window to cancel/repost if needed

10s polling cadence is appropriate for on-chain resolution events (fast enough to not miss a fill, not so aggressive it spams RPC)

Single-intent hardcode means after 0x...0669 resolves, the watcher is done — next wake needs to post a new intent AND rebalance AND set up a new watcher; one wa

No signal if option-taker (the only likely taker) wakes and posts a counter-intent — watcher remains blind to that accelerating event

After auth recovers, rebuild the watcher to accept a configurable intentId param rather than hardcoding 0x...0669 — this lets the same watcher logic serve every option the agent posts without a source edit per intent.

401 auth collapse blocking all agent wakes fleet-wide

option-writer-matheus is one of ~12/14 agents with wakes_failing=true due to the same 401. The live ETH call (0x...0669) expires ~16:01 UTC; if auth is still down at the 50-min fallback (~14:51 UTC), the agent can't cancel/repost and the position unwinds unfilled.

Restore platform auth credentials / token rotation. This is the only unblock — no agent-level fix applies while the 401 persists.

Deferred contrarian rebalance (sMSFT→sAAPL) accumulating lag

w116 explicitly staged the rebalance to the next wake. Every 401 wake extends that lag. The 70% portfolio engine is effectively paused while the 30% option sleeve has one live intent.

No action needed now (correct staging decision). On first successful wake post-auth, execute the rebalance before posting a new option — the portfolio engine should not be permanently deferred behind option mechanics.

Polymarket-Ljuba

sAAPL is stranded inventory from the expired Jun12 horizon exit (previous attempt intent#1598 expired unfilled at 1h TTL

sAAPL exit#1627 resolves (~34min) or BTC bet#1609 resolves or new takeable intent (24h fallback)

watcher.wakeError='401 Invalid authentication credentials', armed=false, pidAlive=false — matches fleet-wide auth collapse pattern across 10+ agents. The watcher script calls `claude -p "wake"` when a condition fires; that call returned 401 and killed or failed to arm the process post-w31. wakes_fai

Intent#1609 resolves (fill or expire) — polls snapshot.myOpenIntents for intentId 1609

New takeable bet with edge ≥8pp appears on scan-book output

MISSING: none structurally — but the watcher process is dead so none of these can fire

targets near-decided binaries (>85% or <15% implied); BTC Jun15 at 57.5% is mid-conviction, outside its take threshold

takes 'clearly mispriced' binaries — would need to independently assess BTC $64k as mispriced vs its oracle; no explicit Polymarket comparis

accepts 'winnable open bets re-priced to live oracle' — could see #1609 as a BTC-above bet if BTC oracle is above $64k; mandate is loose eno

wants BTC down; #1609 is BTC above $64k — wrong direction

Intent#1609 resolution check (snapshot.myOpenIntents polling) is the right primary trigger — fires on fill OR expiry, exactly what the agent needs to act

scan-book poll for edge ≥8pp takeable bets is on-mission and matches the 8pp threshold used in w31 decision

Jun15 16:00 UTC hardstop matches the binary market expiry — correct and specific

60s poll cadence is appropriate for a live binary with ~26h to expiry

Error handling in catch block logs and continues rather than dying on transient network errors

The watcher process is dead (pidAlive=false) — good design doesn't matter if it never runs; the 401 killed the re-arming step after w31

No auth-failure self-rescue: when `claude -p "wake"` returns 401, the catch block logs and continues polling indefinitely without escalating or notifying

Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse kills all watcher re-arming

polymarket-ljuba's watcher death is the same 401 hitting 10+ agents. Armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakeError='401 Invalid authentication credentials' — identical signature fleet-wide. This is not agent-specific.

Restore fleet auth credentials; this is the single unlock for all 10+ stuck agents including polymarket-ljuba.

Intent#1609 (BTC Jun15, ~26.5h left) will expire or fill without agent awareness

Watcher is dead, so the agent cannot respond to: (a) a fill by a counterparty, (b) the Jun15 expiry and potential payout, or (c) new takeable bets that emerge while it's blind. $9.99 is at risk of expiring without position management.

Once auth is restored, manually re-arm the watcher or trigger a wake so the agent can reconcile #1609's state and re-post the watcher if still open.

Rebalancer-Lior

Correct plan (trim sMSFT → DCA BTC) requires US market open for stock oracle to be live. Waiting.

Monday 2026-06-16T13:30Z stock open -- trim sMSFT, DCA BTC

Summary: Two changes since last run: (1) auth briefly recovered ~13:00–13:45 UTC, allowing w47 (13:46 UTC) to fire — LLM ran correctly, confirmed plan (trim sMSFT +1.63pp → DCA BTC -1.61pp), correctly deferred to Monday 13:30Z stock open; (2) auth re-collapsed, wakes_failing=true again. Prior summary said 'no LLM reasoning since w45 (Jun 10)' — now updated: w47 confi

Auth is down again (401) but immaterial: w47 (13:46 UTC today) ran during the brief recovery window and correctly concluded no action until Monday 13:30Z US market open — stock oracle unavailable outside market hours. sMSFT pre-approved (w46). Watcher fires at 13:30Z Monday; LP-Maker (4/15 lifetime fills) is the expected counterparty for the sMSFT→BTC sequence.

Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse; wakes_failing=true. However, agent's next LLM action is not needed until Monday 2026-06-16T13:30Z — the watcher's time-gated fire is independent of auth state. Capital constraint (sMSFT trim → USDC → BTC DCA) also correctly prevents pre-Monday moves even if auth were li

Sound, solving the right problem. w47 correctly identified: stock oracle offline, capital locked in sMSFT until trim, no book opportunity within constraints. Not churning — last 4 wakes (w44–w47) each escalated correctly then correctly went dormant. The BTC escalation ladder (oracle → +1.47% → +2.07% → +3% → +4%) across w40–w45 resolved with intent #1294 filling, showing the strategy works.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z (US market open — fires fireWake)

4 of 15 lifetime fills; holds sMSFT buy-side and BTC sell-side — exact match for trim→DCA sequence

auth-down (wakes_failing=true), but arme

1 historical fill; takes fast-moving swaps but not a natural sMSFT→BTC structured counterparty

1 historical fill; mission is concentrated movers, could overlap if BTC is leading on Monday open

None. Capital is locked — sMSFT trim generates the USDC needed for BTC DCA; w47 verified no USDC-available BTC path existed during the auth recovery window. LP-Maker had BTC/sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT on book, but without USDC freed from the trim, Rebalancer cannot act. Correct deferral.

Time-gate to exact stock market open (2026-06-16T13:30:00Z) is precisely correct — stock oracle is unavailable outside US market hours, so any earlier fire woul

Fallback at 14:30Z (1h after open) ensures a floor if the 13:30Z trigger fires but reasoning stalls

Zero-LLM watcher: runWatchLoop only checks Date.now() vs a constant — no book dependency, no false fires

sMSFT approval already placed (w46) so Monday wake can go straight to trim execution without a separate approval step

No guard against auth being down at Monday 13:30Z fire — if 401 persists through weekend, the watcher fires but the LLM wake will immediately 401 again, burning

Add a pre-wake auth-health probe inside runWatchLoop: if Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS but a lightweight SDK healthcheck fails (401), delay fireWake by one poll interval (5 min) rather than firing into a broken auth gate — protects the one m

401 auth collapse prevents LLM wakes fleet-wide

wakes_failing=true for rebalancer-lior and ~12/14 agents; auth briefly recovered 13:00–13:45 UTC producing 16 fleet deals then collapsed again. Rebalancer's Monday plan is unaffected structurally, but if 401 persists to 2026-06-16T13:30Z, the critical stock-open window burns.

Restore auth credentials / token refresh on the SDK side before Monday 13:30Z UTC; rebalancer needs exactly one successful LLM wake at market open to execute trim→DCA.

Stacker-Massimo

Intent 1640 consumed before my snapshot; no sNVDA sell-side remains. Bid 1599 fresh and on-price.

intent 1599 fill/expiry | sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC | oracle drift >0.5%

wakes_failing=true every wake since w34 (06-14T00:00); wake_error='401 Invalid authentication credentials'; fleet-wide collapse confirmed Step-1 (10+ agents); not stacker-specific

intent 1599 filled or expired (ownIntentResolved)

oracle sNVDA drifts >0.5% from $205.10 (bid-post baseline)

new takeable sNVDA sell intent ≤12 USDC appears on book

45-min fallback (FALLBACK_MS = 45 * 60_000)

Primary counterparty — both sNVDA deals (140, 141) settled ↔ LP-Maker; quotes near-oracle sNVDA swaps from deep inventory

Settled 1 swap with stacker historically; 70/30 portfolio includes tech equities but currently active on ETH options (#1600), not sNVDA sell

Could sell sNVDA if overweight vs target; DCA-style swaps could cross stacker's bid

ownIntentResolved fires on 1599 expiry — first successful wake after auth fix will immediately detect the expired bid and trigger re-evaluation + fresh post

Oracle drift >0.5% from bid-post baseline ensures stale bid gets refreshed after price moves

isTakeableSnvdaSell correctly gates on cost ≤12 USDC AND implied price ≤ oracle×1.01 — matches mission's ≤1% ceiling and lot cap

45-min fallback appropriate for a patient accumulator; not over-polling

ORACLE_BASE hardcoded to $205.10 (bid-post time); after 1599 expires and a fresh bid is posted at a new oracle price, the script will be regenerated — but if au

No sAAPL/sMSFT coverage in wake triggers despite mission naming all three equities — watcher is sNVDA-only

Fleet-wide 401 auth failure blocking stacker since w34 (811 min / ~13.5h)

Every wake since 06-14T00:00 fails: 'Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials'. Shared with 10+ agents (Step-1 confirmed). Stacker has zero on-chain activity for 811 min despite watcher firing on 45-min cadence.

Restore valid API credentials fleet-wide. Stacker self-recovers on first successful wake: watcher will detect intent 1599 expired, trigger a wake, and post a fresh sNVDA bid.

LP-Maker-Matheus down 73h+ — sNVDA sell-side structurally absent post-auth-fix

2 of stacker's 5 lifetime deals (140, 141) were ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus. LP-Maker is the hub counterparty for sNVDA swaps (113 lifetime deals); its absence eliminates the most reliable sNVDA sell-side. Even with auth restored, stacker's bid will sit unfilled until LP-Maker or another sNVDA seller returns

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus. Alternatively, any agent holding sNVDA inventory (rebalancer-lior if overweight) could fill stacker's bid — but rebalancer is also auth-broken.

Swing-Nikita

still warming up — 2/3 minimum samples; cannot compute meaningful deviations; US stocks market-hours blocked (Sunday)

60 min warmup — collect 3rd price sample (1 more needed for baseline)

401 at w34 matches fleet-wide auth collapse; prior 3-day gap w33→w34 was a distinct 'Sonnet rate-limit outage' (per wake-script comment); watcher armed=true/pidAlive=true but every LLM call fails; 5 settled deals all pre-collapse, 2 confirmed vs LP-Maker-Matheus (now pidAlive=false 73h+)

60-min interval timer (WARMUP_FIRE_MS) — collect next price sample

MISSING: no trigger for 'auth restored' — agent will spin through warmup wakes that all fail until auth is fixed externally

Sole confirmed counterparty; 2 of 5 settled deals were swaps vs LP-Maker

Swap-capable taker; opposite directional logic could cross with swing's fade entries

Momentum vs mean-reversion creates natural cross; both use delivered swaps

sNVDA/sAAPL accumulator could cross swing's sell-stretch signals

Correctly identifies the 3-day price-history gap and switches to fast 60-min warmup cadence rather than attempting full deviation analysis with insufficient dat

Explicit comment documenting the outage cause, sample count (1/3), and intent — readable and auditable

2h hard fallback is appropriate for the warmup phase (not sub-minute, not excessively long)

Zero-LLM watcher: armWatcher + runWatchLoop + fireWake is purely time-based, correct for this phase

Auth failure at w34 means the warmup sample was NOT collected — the script will rearm and fire again in ~87 min into the same 401 wall; the warmup counter has n

Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse — all LLM calls failing

Same 'Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials' hitting swing-nikita at w34, matching fleet-wide collapse across 10+ agents. Watcher stays armed and rearms correctly, but every actual agent execution fails before any analytical work occurs.

Restore API auth credentials at the platform level; this is not agent-specific and cannot be fixed per-agent.

Price-history baseline wiped by 3-day outage — warmup not progressing

The prior Sonnet rate-limit outage (w33 06-11T07:19 → w34 06-14T12:56, ~3d 5h gap) emptied the price-history window. Agent needs 3 successful wakes to reestablish baseline. w34 failed (401), so the counter has not advanced past 1/3. With nextFallbackMin=87, the next attempt will still hit 401 unless

After auth fix: let 2 warmup wakes succeed (they will run ~60 min apart). Confirm price-history file has valid data from w34 before counting it — the w34 LLM call failed, so the sample append may not have occurred.

LP-Maker-Matheus down 73h — sole confirmed swap counterparty gone

2 of swing-nikita's 5 settled deals were vs LP-Maker-Matheus. With LP-Maker pidAlive=false and all other swap-capable peers (rebalancer-lior, momentum-nikita, stacker-massimo) also 401-broken, swing-nikita has 0 reliable counterparties. Auth restoration + warmup completion will produce a working age

LP-Maker-Matheus recovery is the highest-leverage fleet move. Until then, swing-nikita's structural deal path does not exist regardless of its own health.

Vulture-Andrew

check-my-quotes flagged 5 stale/drifted quotes. sharp-quotes gave 2; other 3 computed manually at 1% floor (sharp-quotes

17 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781448613; next poll 71s

401 on all wakes after w112 (06-14T13:39); LP-Maker-Matheus offline 73h+ (4 of last 5 Vulture deals); Momentum-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo all also 401-broken — zero live counterparties for any of the 9 posted intents

new takeable edge ≥1% (excluding honeypots 779/836/869)

quote erosion or undercut (check-my-quotes cancelCmds > 0)

hard fallback ~2h (currently 36 min remaining)

4 of last 5 deals; primary liquidity hub for Vulture's swap asks

1 recent swap deal; directional rotations could match Vulture's baited crypto intents

DCA swap slices could fill Vulture's posted stock/crypto asks if within 1% floor

Takes sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle — direct match for Vulture's posted equity intents

Takes options only; Vulture's 9 open intents are swaps/binaries/equity

Zero-LLM polling via scan-edges — fires on real book signals without token burn between wakes

Pre-seeded honeypot blocklist (IDs 779, 836, 869) prevents re-triggering on confirmed traps

Three independent fire conditions (edge, pre-expiry, quote erosion) all directly relevant to Vulture's dual taker+maker role

30s poll cadence appropriate for an opportunistic edge-scanner; 2h fallback reasonable for a patient vulture

No explicit trigger for near-decided option intents on the book — if scan-edges doesn't score option moneyness, Vulture can't fire on Option-Writer's posted cal

seenEdgeIds set resets on each watcher restart — after a 73h gap like w110→w111, all previously-refused edges re-evaluate from scratch (including any new honeyp

Fleet-wide 401 auth collapse (10+ agents)

Every claude binary launch fails with 401 Invalid authentication credentials. Vulture is collateral damage — watcher is healthy and armed, but claude dies on each fire. Shared cause with bear-yosher, lp-maker-matheus, mimic-ljuba, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massi

Rotate/refresh Anthropic API key in shared env secret store; verify propagation to all agent containers; confirm auth before re-arming fleet.

Primary counterparty concentration: LP-Maker is 4/5 recent deals

39 lifetime deals, but 4 of the last 5 were LP-Maker-Matheus. Its 73h outage has completely frozen Vulture's fill rate. No secondary liquidity source is confirmed to fill Vulture's posted intents.

After auth restores, verify Vulture's intent pricing falls within Stacker-Massimo's and Rebalancer-Lior's stated take ranges; if so, no change needed — if not, tighten posted spread to attract them.

Token-to-PnL ratio: $80.67 spent vs $0.56 realized

83 of 116 wakes are repeat 'no edges' passes at ~$0.17/wake. That's ~$14 in pure scan cost with no action. 39 deals at $0.56 realized PnL is ~$0.014/deal — well below break-even on token cost.

Audit whether raising EDGE_MIN_PCT from 1% to 1.5-2% reduces false-positive scans without cutting genuine edges; also review whether 'no edges' wakes are being triggered by pre-expiry on near-worthless intents that should be cancelled proactively.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

AUTH WALL, 16 DEALS IN 45MIN

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Arb-Hunter-Tom ×5, Rebalancer-Lior ×5, Vulture-Andrew ×4, 0xBd6a×1}

FROZEN — hub auth-blocked post-w131 (14:14 UTC); 12 open LP-Maker intents + 9 Vu

PARTIAL — intent #1641 ($1,681.72 call, $0.24 premium, 4% notional) live on book

Bear-Yosher [custom] → unknown taker; Polymarket-Ljuba [custom] → unknown taker

AT RISK — Bear-Yosher intent expires ~20 min (2026-06-15 13:46 UTC, Deposit A 4

DARK — both agents unprovisioned (address=null, armed=false, 30-31 null cycles);

Platform-wide 401 auth collapse (re-triggered ~14:14 UTC post LP-Maker-w131)

12/14 deployed agents wakes_failing; all execution frozen; only 16 deals cleared during the 45-min recovery window 13:00

wakeError='401 Invalid authentication credentials' confirmed on arb-hunter-tom, bear-yosher, mimic-ljuba, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, polymarket-ljuba, rebalancer-lio

LP-Maker-Matheus is sole liquidity hub (113 lifetime deals; appears in 13/16 this-cycle deals)

Auth blocking LP-Maker simultaneously strands all 7 agents listing it as primary counterparty — Vulture-Andrew, Arb-Hunt

16 recent deals: LP-Maker in 13; Vulture summary 'LP-Maker-Matheus offline 73h+, 4 of last 5 Vulture deals vs LP-Maker'; Swing-Nikita '2 confirmed fills vs LP-Maker'; LP-Maker reliableCounterparties=5

LP-Maker-Matheus auth-blocked post-w131 (14:14 UTC)

Vulture-Andrew's 9 freshly posted intents (SSV/BTC/sMSFT/sNVDA/ETH, w111 13:25 UTC) have zero live counterparties and wi

Vulture summary: '4 of last 5 Vulture deals vs LP-Maker'; LP-Maker now pidAlive=false; all other Vulture counterparties also auth-broken; intents expire within 25–59 min

Stacker-Massimo's 390-min TTL intent #1599 posted at midnight (w34) while auth blackout lasted 811 min

Intent almost certainly expired ~7h ago without fill; capital may be undeployed until auth restores and agent can repost

Stacker summary: '390-min TTL vs 811-min elapsed'; Step-1 '357 min left' flagged as stale snapshot artifact; wakes_failing=true since w34 00:00 UTC, no on-chain action possible

Option-Taker-Matheus found confirmed edge on intent #1641 (w32, 'genuinely cheap, 4% of notional') but auth blocked exec

Edge opportunity missed; intent still live (35 min left per open book) but taker remains auth-blocked (nextFallbackMin=9

Option-Taker summary: 'w32 13:49 UTC found #1641 ETH call $1,681.72 $0.24 premium and rated genuinely cheap (4% of notional)'; wakes_failing=true post recovery window; option-writer-matheus pidAlive=t

Platform 401 auth collapse — 12/14 agents dead

12 of 14 deployed agents share identical wakeError='401 Invalid authentication credentials' since ~14:14 UTC Jun 14. This is one platform regression, not 12 agent failures. The 16 deals that cleared during the 45-min recovery window (13:00–13:45 UTC) prove the fleet executes correctly when auth works — the bottleneck is purely credential/auth layer.

wakes_failing=true: arb-hunter-tom, bear-yosher, lp-maker-matheus, mimic-ljuba, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, polymarket-ljuba, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, vulture-andrew (12 agents); inde

Rotate/restore API credentials fleet-wide; re-test with a single agent wake before declaring recovery; root-cause why auth collapsed twice in one cycle (13:00 recovery → 14:14 re-collapse)

LP-Maker-Matheus single-hub concentration amplifies every auth outage

LP-Maker-Matheus appears in 13/16 deals this cycle and is the primary counterparty for 7+ agents. When auth takes LP-Maker down, the entire fleet's active liquidity evaporates simultaneously — every taker agent that found an edge has nowhere to fill. This is a structural fleet risk independent of auth.

113 LP-Maker lifetime deals; 13/16 cycle deals involve LP-Maker; Vulture, Arb-Hunter, Rebalancer, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo all list LP-Maker as primary; all others show reliableCounterparties ≤1 when LP-Maker is down

Bootstrap a second swap-hub agent or configure LP-Maker-Matheus with a hot-standby; at minimum, ensure at least 2 active swap makers overlap in the book at any time

Bear-Yosher custom intent expiring ~20 min, no live taker

Bear-Yosher intent (Deposit A 4 USDC / B 2.67 USDC, Expiry 2026-06-15 13:46 UTC) has ~20 min left on the book. Bear-Yosher's watcher is armed (nextFallbackMin=264) but auth-blocked — it cannot cancel or extend. No counterparty is identified as an active taker for binary custom intents.

Open book: 'Bear-Yosher [custom] … Expiry 2026-06-15 13:46 UTC (20m left)'; watcher armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=264; wakes_failing=true; bear-yosher reliableCounterparties=0

If auth restores in the next 15 min, manually trigger a Bear-Yosher wake to cancel before expiry; otherwise accept expiry and repost when auth clears

Option-Taker missed confirmed edge on #1641 — intent still live, 35 min left

Option-Taker-Matheus evaluated intent #1641 (ETH call $1,681.72, $0.24 premium) at w32 and rated it 'genuinely cheap (4% of notional)' — a confirmed edge signal. Auth blocked execution. The intent remains on the open book with ~35 min left. Option-taker's next fallback is 98 min, well past expiry.

Open book: 'Option-Writer-Matheus [custom] ETH call · strike $1,681.72 · 0.24 USDC premium (35m left)'; option-taker summary w32 evaluation; wakes_failing=true; nextFallbackMin=98

Auth restore is the only unlock; consider shortening option-taker's fallback interval when a live-edge intent is known to be on the book

Vulture-Andrew 9 intents expiring within 50 min with zero live counterparties

Vulture freshly posted 9 intents during w111 (13:25 UTC). All face expiry within 25–59 min. LP-Maker (4/5 of Vulture's fills) is auth-blocked. No other taker is active for SSV/sMSFT/sNVDA instruments. Auth must restore before expiry or all 9 intents lapse.

Open book: Vulture SSV (49m), sNVDA ×2 (49m/59m), sMSFT (50m), ETH (25m); vulture summary 'LP-Maker-Matheus offline 73h+, 4 of last 5 Vulture deals vs LP-Maker'; reliableCounterparties=0

Auth restore before ~14:10 UTC is the critical path; if missed, Vulture will repost on next successful wake

index-maker + index-taker — 31 null cycles, never provisioned

Both index agents have address=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens across 30–31 consecutive cycles. IndexBasket market segment has never had a single posted intent. This is a provisioning gap, not an auth or runtime issue.

index-maker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes; index-taker: identical state; 0 IndexBasket intents ever on book

Assign wallets, deploy wake scripts, and provision both agents; they are the only agents with zero structural barrier to deployment

Restore auth credentials immediately — 12/14 agents hitting identical '401 Invalid authentication credentials'; fleet proves it executes cleanly when unblocked (16 deals / 45 min window); root-cause the double-collapse (13:00 recovery → 14:14 re-collapse) before declaring stable

Reduce LP-Maker-Matheus single-hub concentration — 7 agents depend on it as sole counterparty; its auth downtime cascades to full fleet illiquidity; bootstrap a second swap-hub or enforce ≥2 overlapping swap makers in the book at all times

Provision index-maker + index-taker — both armed=false, address=null, 31 null cycles; IndexBasket segment never existed; zero runtime blockers, pure provisioning gap

Monitor Bear-Yosher intent expiry (~20 min, Expiry 2026-06-15 13:46 UTC) — if auth restores before expiry, trigger manual wake to cancel; otherwise log expiry and repost on recovery

Same 401 auth collapse as last run, but a brief recovery window (~13:00–13:45 UTC) produced 16 settled deals — LP-Maker rebuilt its 12-intent book (w127), Vulture reposted 9 intents (w111), Arb-Hunter/Rebalancer/Vulture all cleared fills; auth has since re-collapsed across the fleet, wakes_failing o

401 auth collapse still blocking ~12/14 deployed agents — LP-Maker's 12-intent book (~58 min TTL from post time) and Vulture's 9 intents will expire unrefreshed if auth stays down

Mimic-Ljuba open custom intent expires in ~7 min (Expiry 14:10 UTC per book) — position continuity at immediate risk

Stacker-Massimo shows open intent '10 USDC → 0.04852 sNVDA, 323 min left' on live book, but prior summary estimated it expired ~7h ago (390-min intent vs 811-min auth blackout) — data inconsistency mu

LP-Maker-Matheus is the fleet's sole liquidity hub (113 deals, 12 open intents) — 7+ agents list it as primary counterparty; wakes_failing means no book refresh without an auth-cleared wake in the nex

Index-maker and index-taker: 30th consecutive null cycle, never deployed, armed=false/pidAlive=false — no natural IndexBasket market segment at all

Prior said armed=false/wakes_failing=true last cycle; now armed=true with 18-min fallback — did the watcher successfully re-arm after the 401, and has any CEX/oracle latency edge opened since w218 (12:57 UTC) that a recovered auth could act

w43 triggered HALT (≥3/4 legs up, ETH+BTC >+2%) and cancelled intent #1610 — has the HALT condition since cleared (crypto legs pulled back below threshold), and is the current open binary (Deposit A 4 USDC · expiry 06-15 13:46) correctly si

30th consecutive null cycle with armed=false/pidAlive=false/0 wakes — is there any provisioning signal, wallet assignment, or config change this cycle, or is this still fully undeployed?

30th consecutive null cycle, never deployed — same question as index-maker: any provisioning signal, or still awaiting index-maker as its sole natural counterparty?

Book rebuilt at w127 (~13:03 UTC) with 12 intents now showing ~58 min TTL; wakes_failing=true means the watcher poll loop 401s on readOpenIntents; with the 45-min fallback, will the next LLM wake fire in time to refresh the book before expi

Open custom intent expires ~7 min from data snapshot (14:10 UTC) — did w93's '[object Object]' serialization bug mask a successful replacement post, or is this position about to lapse with no successor? And has the $63.62→$76.9x portfolio j

pidAlive dropped true→false since last summary, nextFallbackMin=528 (~8.8h) — is a 528-min fallback appropriate for a momentum strategy that needs to detect leadership shifts, or does this cadence mean it will miss a rotation window? And ha

Option-Writer's ETH call (strike $1,681.72, $0.24 premium, ~58 min left) is live on book — at current ETH price vs that strike, does this represent the edge option-taker looks for, and is the agent positioned to evaluate it if auth clears w

Last clean wake w116 at 12:58 UTC, now wakes_failing post-auth-recollapse; the open ETH call (strike $1,681.72, $0.24 premium) is the only writer intent live — is this competitively priced relative to current ETH oracle, and is the contrari

The BTC binary #1609 (give $9.99/want $7.38, p_implied=57.5%) is live with 1556 min remaining — does Polymarket's current implied BTC distribution still support this position, and is the open sAAPL swap (#1598 successor or separate?) compet

wakes_failing=true, next fallback 2907 min (~Monday 06-15) — LP-Maker's book currently offers sNVDA, sAAPL, sMSFT, BTC, ETH swaps that match rebalancer's target mix; did any of the 15 settled deals (incl. 5 recent Rebalancer↔LP-Maker fills)

Open book shows 'Stacker-Massimo gives 10 USDC → wants 0.04852 sNVDA, 323 min left' but prior summary assessed intent #1599 as expired ~7h ago (390-min TTL, 811-min blackout) — is this a live intent somehow refreshed, a stale board snapshot

After a 3-day gap emptied the price-history window, w34 switched to 60-min warmup mode; pidAlive=true, 76-min fallback — has the warmup collected enough samples (3 required) to re-enable the fade-dislocation strategy, and what does the curr

9 freshly reposted intents (SSV/BTC/sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL) are live with 4-min fallback; LP-Maker has 12 matching swap intents on the opposing side — are any of Vulture's current posted asks priced to be taken by LP-Maker (or vice versa), and d

Resolve the fleet-wide 401 auth regression — it is the single blocker for 12/14 deployed agents; LP-Maker's book expires in ~45–58 min without a clean wake, which will re-freeze the entire fleet's liq

mimic-ljuba: the custom intent expires ~7 min from data snapshot — verify on-chain whether it settled, was replaced, or will lapse; the '[object Object]' serialization bug in w93 output must be fixed

stacker-massimo: reconcile whether intent '10 USDC → 0.04852 sNVDA, 323 min left' is genuinely live on-chain or a stale board artifact — auth has been broken 13.5h so no LLM could have re-posted it.

Index-maker and index-taker: 30 consecutive null cycles with 0 wakes, $0 burn, no wallet — make a provisioning decision (deploy or remove from fleet) to stop consuming monitoring cycles with no signal