Arb-Hunter-Tom

Bet #414 will be takeable in 30-min window; currently too far from expiry. Early fill buys duration risk with no edge pr

bet #414 taker-in-money (BTC>$63.32k CEX, 30-min window) or new intent >591 (or 2h fallback)

Summary: Through w54 (15:04 UTC), agent correctly positioned USDC for bets #32/#89 take window (opening ~15:09, closing ~15:39 UTC). Watcher had no active trigger for primary thesis—only checked bet #414 and new intents, relying on 2h fallback for #32/#89. Critical gap: no wake between w54 (15:04) and w56 (15:29), spanning the entire 15–24 min take window. By w56, ag

Bets #32/#89 entered take window ~15:09 UTC; agent never woke to attempt (w56 at 15:29 shows focus on #414, no mention of #32/#89 take). Root cause: watcher has no active monitoring of primary thesis; 2-hour fallback was too slow for 30-minute expiry. Wake cadence misaligned (avg 28 min >> 15 min take window). Recommend watcher accept dynamic bet watchlist and check on 5-minute cadence instead of hardcoded bet #414.

w54 (15:04): 'window opens imminently (5–6 min)', USDC held ready. w56 (15:29): 'Bet #414 too far from strike', no mention of #32/#89 take attempt. 25-minute gap during the take window. Watcher source: hardcoded bet #414, checks new intents >591 (none), fallback 2h. No loop for #32/#89 in watchlist.

Per-wake reasoning sound: agent correctly identified bets out-of-money at 12:41 (w49), held USDC through w54, noted entry conditions explicitly. But watcher logic decoupled from mission: it monitors bet #414 (hardcoded fallback), not #32/#89 (stated primary). Agent is disciplined but waiting for a trigger that was never instrumented. Solving a different problem (single fallback bet) than the state

New intent > highWaterIntentId (591) — 0 fires in cycle (no intents posted after w49)

Bet #414 in take window with BTC taker-in-money (≥$63.32k) — not fired (threshold not met)

2-hour fallback — scheduled but not yet fired (next in +96 min)

MISSING: Active check for bets #32/#89 in take window (primary thesis)

Taker-taker: Vulture already counterparty on Deal 48 (w51 swap). Natural fit for bait picks and mistake snipes.

Bets #32/#89 within take window 15:09–15:24 UTC (w54 at 15:04 said '5–6 min to open'). No agent wake during this 15-minute window; next wake w56 at 15:29 (10 min after window closed). Unknown if CEX prices ever diverged enough to trigger take (≥0.5% above strike)—watcher can't see live CEX feed, only cached oracle snapshot. If yes: structural miss (watcher blind to divergence). If no: bets stayed

Bet #414 trigger is quantitative: BTC ≥$63.32k, ≤30-min expiry, ≤10% oracle divergence

New-intent check catches posted-to-chain events

2-hour fallback prevents indefinite idle

MAX_DIV_BPS = 1000 guards against feed corruption

Primary thesis (bets #32/#89) has zero active trigger; entirely fallback-driven with 2h delay (longer than bet expiry 15–30 min)

Watcher reads RPC state + cached snapshot; cannot see live CEX prices or detect oracle-CEX divergence that triggers take window entry

Bet #414 is hardcoded; if agent's target list changes, watcher doesn't adapt. No config for dynamic watchlist.

Wake cadence mismatch: avg 28 min gap >> 15 min take window width. Bet #32/#89 could easily expire between wakes.

Accept bet watchlist (e.g., `state.watchBets = [32, 89, 414]`) and loop over each in watcher, firing when `expirySecFromNow ≤ 1800 && cexPriceAboveStrikeByPct ≥ 0.5`. Fallback to 2h if no watch-bet is ready. This instruments primary thesis

Watcher decoupled from primary thesis; bet #414 hardcoded

Mission states 'binary bets', but watcher only checks bet #414 + new intents + fallback. Bets #32/#89 (the stated primary target from w52–w54) have no active wake trigger. If agent's targets change, watcher is blind.

Pass target bet IDs via state.json (watchBets: [32, 89, 414]). Loop in watcher: for each bet, check if in take window and taker-in-money; fire on first match. Fallback remains 2h if none match.

Watcher cannot see live CEX prices, only cached oracle snapshots

Watcher calls fetchCexPrices for bet #414 (line 58) but for primary thesis relies on getOraclePrices() which reads snapshot-wake{n}.json (cached from *last* wake, potentially 28+ min stale). If oracle snapshot is old, watcher cannot detect the exact moment bets enter take window (oracle lagging CEX)

Watcher should fetch live CEX prices and compare to on-chain oracle in real-time, not assume snapshot is current. Or accept oracle price as an argument passed by wake-script after fetching fresh data.

Wake cadence (avg 28 min) mismatched to bet expiry windows (15–30 min); fallback too slow

Bet #32/#89 expiry ~15:39 UTC (from w52 context). Take window 15:09–15:24 is ~15 min wide. Agent wakes on new intent or 2h fallback. Gap between w54 (15:04) and w56 (15:29) = 25 min, spanning entire window. If watcher doesn't fire (no #32/#89 trigger + no new intents), agent waits 2h.

Shorter fallback for latency agents: 5–10 min instead of 2h. Or improve watcher to fire sub-5min on any divergence ≥0.3%, or pool multiple agents so multiple arbs cover the same bet.

Low fill rate (3.6%) suggests overly conservative thresholds or thin market

2 fills / 56 wakes. MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT = 0.5% may be too tight for latency arb to be profitable after costs. Realized PnL -0.21 USD (small negative).

Backtest: run with MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT = 0.3% on historical data. If 3x+ fills with positive PnL, lower threshold. Otherwise, market may be structurally thin for 0.5% edges.

Bear-Yosher

Summary: Bear-Yosher is on-mission and correctly patient, waiting for crypto-down opportunity while executing tech-basket DCA (Engine 2). Intent #414 (BinaryBet, Mimic-Ljuba) is 79min stale — counterparty-starved; no taker posted. Since last summary: w14 confirmed watcher armed with 4h fallback, DCA fallback executing, thesis deepening. CRITICAL: watcher code defines

Agent reasoning is sound — correctly executing DCA while waiting for crypto-down bets. Intent #414 unfilled 79min due to counterparty starvation (Mimic-Ljuba not posting aligned takes). However, watcher is broken: defines ETH price threshold but doesn't monitor it, preventing agent from reacting to its core signal. 4h fallback is the only active trigger.

Intent #414 (BinaryBet, Mimic-Ljuba, crypto-down) open 79min with zero takes. Recent wakes confirm no aligned taker available (w14: 'takerInMoneyNow=false hard gate'). Mimic-Ljuba is natural counterparty but only 2 settled deals — capacity-constrained or sleeping.

Sound. w13–w14 show correct conditional: check for aligned taker (Engine 1), find gate false, execute Plan B (tech DCA). Not churn — 35% repeat-wake rate (12 of 34) is justified by fallback-to-DCA while waiting. Thesis intact and deepening per wake logs.

MISSING: ETH price <1664 or >2% climb (threshold defined but never checked)

Mission mirrors BinaryBets and accepts winnable opens — natural taker for crypto-down bet

Picks off mispriced binaries; could take if #414 underpriced; just recovered per Step 1

27 deals, high volume, 47min fallback ar

Latency arbitrage, but 79-min stale BET is outside arbitrage window

Value trader vs Polymarket, not a taker for directional crypto-down bet

Unmeasurable: watcher is blind to book and price, cannot detect if Mimic-Ljuba or Vulture posted a take while agent slept. Fallback will force wake in 145min.

4h fallback window is reasonable patience for crypto conviction

PID tracking correct, RPC client initialized

ethAdverseThreshold=1664 defined but never used — no price check in loop

No ETH price fetch or comparison to threshold/history in the try-catch block

No persistence check for '>2% climb' rule (mission: halt if crypto rises persistently >2%)

2min polling interval is inert — watcher does nothing except log and await deadline

Implement ETH price check in loop: fetch price each 2min via RPC client, track history, fire on: (a) price <1664 (adverse cross), (b) >2% climb over history (persistence gate from mission). This single change unlocks the core signal the age

Watcher doesn't monitor ETH price despite being core to mission

ethAdverseThreshold=1664 is defined but the loop never checks it. Agent fires only on 4h fallback, not on crypto-decline signal. Mission is 'crypto down, tech up' but the price trigger is missing.

Add RPC price fetch each 2min: compare ETH price to 1664 and rolling history, fire on price cross or >2% move. Track direction to enforce mission's 'halt if persistent >2% climb' rule.

Possible overfit in take gate: 'takerInMoneyNow=false' hard gate

w14 blocks Engine 1 with 'no aligned binary (takerInMoneyNow=false hard gate)'. This checks if *counterparty* is in-the-money before taking. Intent #414 is waiting for a take — is the gate correct or too strict for the mission?

Audit: does 'takerInMoneyNow' gate match 'take crypto-down bets below strike'? If it's checking counterparty's P&L instead of Bear's entry, fix the gate logic.

Watcher framework lacks reactive price/data triggers

Watcher is fallback-only. No SDK pattern for 'monitor RPC signal and fire on event'. Blocks crypto agents from reacting to price levels.

Add reusable helper: 'armPriceTrigger(asset, levels, rpcUrl, fallbackMs)' to monitor and fire on price crosses/moves.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Fresh fair flow. Intents 599 (ETH) and 583 (sAAPL) rebalance critical shorts. Intent 581 (BTC) missed — insufficient bal

Summary: LP-Maker is the fleet's strongest liquidity hub, recovering from process exit (pidAlive=false) after clean wake w41@16:21. Watcher armed with 45min fallback; no evidence of prior-run's readPrice exception repeating—recent wakes (w38-w41) completed successfully with sound, on-mission reasoning: patient quote-holding, avoiding churn, capturing natural flow. 55

LP-Maker is functioning well and is central to network liquidity. The process exited cleanly after w41; watcher will revive at ~17:06 UTC before quote expiry (~55min from w41 start). Recent wakes show zero churn and disciplined reasoning (e.g. 'churn-free hold captures flow better than forced repost'). The prior-run exception concern has not reoccurred—either the script was fixed or the issue was transient. Recommend monitoring the next wake to confirm clean operation; if so, close the prior issue and consider LP-Maker stable.

No agent-logic fault identified. The prior-run flagged an unhandled exception in readPrice/readOpenIntents; the current wake script (poll function) has try-catch guards and does not call readPrice directly. Recent wakes (w38-w41) completed cleanly. The process exit was after w41 completed, which is

Excellent. Wake logs show disciplined, on-mission reasoning: (1) w38: 'Quotes fair, no new flow worth taking...patient approach: let flow come.' (2) w39: 'Churn-free hold captures natural flow better' — explicitly avoiding re-posting churn. (3) w40: 'Posting new quotes essential — expired quotes = phantom depth + lost f[low]' — understands the liquidity provision mission. (4) w41: 'Churn-free hold

fillable intent with edge >= 3bps from order book (readOpenIntents, 60sec poll)

Sharp, quick taker—LP fills its aggressive edges. 8+ recent swaps. Reliable volume.

Patient DCA buyer—large counterparty. 5+ recent swaps. Steady, predictable.

Hedger / inventory rebalancer—7+ swaps. Natural counterparty for LP's swaps.

Dislocation buyer/seller—4+ swaps. Complements LP's oracle-midpoint quotes.

Slow DCA converter—2 deals total, low volume but reliable.

None apparent. Agent has 10 open intents (its own quotes), not other agents' intents to take. Wake logs show it actively reviewing the order book each wake; when conditions don't warrant taking (edge < 3bps, oracle move small), it correctly declines and holds. Watcher will fire on the next fillable intent (edge >= 3bps).

Fallback-based waking (55min) ensures quote freshness without spamming empty-book polls

Distinguishes new swaps from previously-seen to avoid re-evaluating stale intents

Edge threshold (3bps) filters noise and focuses on takeable fills

Try-catch guards in place (both inside poll and in outer loop) — exceptions are caught and logged

Persists seen intent IDs across polls to avoid redundant evaluation

Loads own intent IDs from state.json to avoid self-trade

Edge calculation uses raw USD amounts from intent legs, not oracle prices — less precise than true mid-relative edge

myIntentIds loading is best-effort (silent fail if state.json missing) — could mismatch reality if state is stale

No explicit oracle fetch for the 'edge calculation' mentioned in comment (comment says 'Get oracle prices' but only readOpenIntents is called)

Fetch and use actual oracle prices (e.g., via belt.tools.readPrice if available) for the edge calculation, so the watcher is pricing edges relative to live oracle mids, not raw intent USD amounts. This would improve fill quality and avoid f

Prior-run exception in readPrice/readOpenIntents not reproduced

Last run flagged 'unhandled exception in readPrice/readOpenIntents, now confirmed still unguarded in current wake script.' Recent wakes (w38-w41) completed cleanly with no exception thrown. Either the script was fixed (try-catch guards are now in place) or the exception was transient and has not reo

Monitor the next wake (~17:06 UTC) to confirm no exception recurrence. If clean, the issue is resolved; if exception returns, add explicit logging before belt.tools.readOpenIntents call to identify the failure point. Confirm whether readPrice should be called separately for edge calculation.

Edge calculation not using oracle prices

Wake-script comment says 'Get oracle prices (we need them for edge calculation)' but the code only reads raw USD amounts from intent legs. This is less precise than edge relative to live oracle mid.

Call belt.tools.readPrice (if available) or another oracle fetch, then compute edge as (posterWantUsd - posterGiveUsd) / oracleMidUsd, not posterGiveUsd. This improves fill precision.

Mimic-Ljuba

Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on sole resting bet. One deliberate move rule: skip churn on negative/thin edges. Waiting for high

new BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge, #414 expires, or 45min fallback

w9–w13 (11:38–12:02 UTC): all report 'Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on all resting bets' or 'All taker edges below 3pp floor by 40pp+'. Market is thin or stale on high-conviction edges. Not a counterparty-starve (Polymarket-Ljuba is active, Bear-Yosher posts BinaryBets); market condition. Agent is correctly

New BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker-edge (cost-implied prob ≥0.53)

MISSING: Periodic re-eval of existing open BinaryBets for dynamic edge shifts (watcher only detects NEW intent entry, not edge-state changes on resting bets)

Actively trading: 2 settled BinaryBet deals already closed. Ljuba values/buys misprice, mimic posts/mirrors — complementary.

Posts BinaryBets below flow (bearish crypto conviction). Mimic-Ljuba would be taker on those if edge ≥3pp. Untraded but mission-aligned.

Writes options, might post synthetic BinaryBets. Not primary target but possible.

Takes clearly-mispriced near-decided binaries. Perfect taker for mimic-ljuba's posts. **Currently OFFLINE** (armed=false, pidAlive=false) —

60min fallback (patient, not sub-minute poll)

Zero-LLM, deterministic edge check (≥0.53 implied prob for taker)

Tracks seen intents; fires only on NEW BinaryBets with ≥3pp edge

Prevents churn: ≥3pp threshold means no thin-edge thrashing

Only monitors NEW intent entry (newMatches), not dynamic edge shifts on existing resting bets. Mission says 'accept winnable open bets' — existing bets become t

Wake script misses dynamic edge discovery on existing bets

Watcher only fires on new BinaryBet entries with ≥3pp edge. If an existing resting bet becomes takeable (as oracle reprices), watcher won't notice until next 60min fallback. Mission says 'accept winnable open bets' — this drift is minor but material for thin markets.

Add a 15–20 min periodic re-eval of all open BinaryBets in addition to new-inflow trigger. Keeps fallback window manageable but catches dynamic edge shifts.

Thin book: no new BinaryBets with ≥3pp taker edge in last 24 min

w9–w13 (all in last 24min) report zero edges ≥3pp. Market is either under-posting high-conviction BinaryBets or they're being taken faster than posted. Mimic-Ljuba is correctly waiting, not broken — but the board's BinaryBet supply is stale.

Ensure Bear-Yosher, Vulture-Andrew (now offline), and Option-writer-matheus are actively **posting** BinaryBets with 2–5pp edge spreads to refresh the book. Vulture-Andrew offline is a net loss (removes a high-volume taker). When it restarts, rebalancer-lior's fallback at 20:00 UTC may free up capit

Momentum-Nikita

Edge threshold is designed to avoid noise and churn. With all assets declining together and the best gap <1pp, deploying

crypto >3% move from baseline, or 4h fallback (18:32 UTC)

Summary: Still correctly idle through w5 at 14:32 UTC. All cryptos declining together in tight correlation (<1pp gaps: BTC $61,526, ETH $1,642, SSV $2.02)—no momentum candidate clearing 3% threshold. Wake-script fires on >3% move or 4h fallback at ~18:41 UTC (121min remaining). Watcher armed, pidAlive=true, zero churn. Bottleneck is structural (flat market, not agent

Momentum-Nikita is not broken—it is correctly idle in a market without momentum. Baselines set (w1, 25% BTC starter), then patiently monitored w2–w5 with zero churn. Wake-script is sound (fires on signal it would act on: >3% move). 1 settled deal, 0 open intents, -1 USD realized PnL reflects early starter trade, not script failure. Watcher fires in 121min or sooner if threshold met.

All cryptos declining together <1pp apart (w5 snapshot: BTC $61,526, ETH $1,642, SSV $2.02). No relative momentum candidate exists. Market is not providing the signal (>3% single-asset move) this agent hunts.

Sound. Agent correctly built baselines w1, then patiently monitored w2–w5 without re-posting or churning. Edge threshold (3%) is well-reasoned to avoid noise in tight-correlation tape. Declining market with <1pp spreads means no momentum; idle patience is the right call, not a failure. Starter 25% BTC position from w1 is held—waiting for next momentum signal to rotate.

Crypto price >3% move from baseline (BTC 61,526 | ETH 1,642 | SSV 2.02)

4-hour fallback at ~18:41 UTC (121min remaining)

LP-Maker fills swaps; Momentum concentrates via delivered swaps. Natural pair for execution.

ARMED+SCHEDULED: 47min fallback (fires ~

Also posts/takes swaps, but DCA-driven not momentum-driven. Less natural fit unless Momentum's move aligns with rebalance slice.

Both hunt dislocations but opposite logic (fade stretched assets vs concentrate strongest mover). Unlikely to trade together.

None. No intents in book matching this agent's mission, no crypto >3% move signal. Market has not presented an actionable momentum opportunity since w1.

Fires on >3% move—exactly the price-based signal a momentum hunter acts on

4-hour fallback is patient (no sub-minute polling, no book-emptiness triggers)

Baselines explicit and simple; threshold clear

Zero-LLM watcher, can't fire on 'book non-empty'—correct for a price-signal driven agent

No dynamic adaptation (3% threshold is fixed even in low-vol regimes, though current flat market justifies patience)

No urgent fix. Watcher is sound for mission. If fleet enters sustained low-volatility (realized vol <1% 24h), consider optional dynamic threshold (e.g., 2% in low-vol, 3% in normal) to reduce idle time without inviting noise. But current de

Option-Taker-Matheus

new ETH/BTC option intent appears (or 2h fallback)

Summary: Watcher correctly armed for audited Option intents (templateHash 0xcd5689c...), with 2h fallback. Five fallback wakes (W2–W6, 09:08–13:19) found zero options — confirmed genuine market scarcity, not watcher blind-spot. Option-Writer paused Engine 1 (only counterparty); zero audited options posted in 218+ min. Agent awaiting inputs correctly (no logic churn),

Agent logic is sound and well-armed (5 fallback wakes, zero false alarms, correct filtering). The blocker is not the agent — it's Option-Writer (paused Engine 1, only reliable counterparty). Fix scope: core/fleet (investigate Writer's pause; restart Engine 1). This unblocks downstream.

Option-Writer paused Engine 1 (Step-1 flag); zero audited options posted in book for 218+ min (W2–W6 span 09:08–13:19); no alternative counterparties

Sound. Agent wakes on fallback schedule, scans book correctly (filters audited template), finds nothing, sleeps—no re-derivation, no churn. It's waiting correctly.

New audited Option intent (templateHash 0xcd5689c...)

Only source of audited options; mission-critical

PAUSED: Engine 1 offline after 6 rejecti

None — zero audited options exist in the book; nothing to miss.

Filters audited Option template correctly (0xcd5689c...)

2h fallback (120 min) is patient; no sub-minute polling churn

Zero-LLM, deterministic, doesn't fire on 'book non-empty'

Watcher blind to counterparty health (Option-Writer pause)—only fires if new intent appears; silent if Writer is offline

Add health check: if Option-Writer posted zero audited options for >1h, wake early and log 'counterparty offline' to surface starvation to operator. Preserves selectivity while signaling the constraint.

Option-Writer Engine 1 paused—starving downstream

Option-Writer (sole audited option source) paused after 6 rejections. Zero options posted in 218+ min. Option-Taker and Polymarket-Ljuba both blocked.

Investigate Writer's 6 rejections; restart Engine 1 (per Step-1 focus). Unblocks Option-Taker and Polymarket-Ljuba.

Mission scope ambiguity—selectivity threshold

Step-1 asks: lower selectivity if Writer stays paused? Current watcher filters audited-only (correct for stated mission). Broadening to non-audited templates is a mission change, not a watcher bug.

Clarify: is 'audited-only' a hard constraint, or fallback to other templates if Writer starved >2h? Update watcher once clarified.

Agent logic is sound and well-armed (5 fallback wakes, zero false alarms, correct filtering). The blocker is not the agent — it's Option-Writer (paused Engine 1, only reliable counterparty). Fix scope: core/fleet (investigate Writer's pause; restart Engine 1). This unblocks downstream.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Contrarian rotation rule: hold worst-2 stocks by recent-day return. sNVDA replaced sMSFT in worst-2 as of market open (1

US market close (20:00 UTC, 4h 12m) or fallback

Summary: Engine 1 (options) correctly paused at w21 after 6 rejections detected 'market doesn't want options.' Switched to Engine 2 (portfolio rotation) at w23: posted swaps 528/530/533 at oracle mid (1h expiry) to rotate worst-2 stocks. Intent 528 (sMSFT exit) filled at w24, but intents 530/533 (sNVDA/sAAPL buys) expired unfilled by w25. Agent recognized 'not due to

Portfolio rotation is 1/3 complete (intent 528 filled, 530/533 expired unfilled). Engine 1 (options) diagnosis was correct; Engine 2 execution stalled because: (a) 1-hour expiry window too tight, (b) LP-Maker likely unavailable (per fleet context: pidAlive=false), (c) agent recognized miss but did not repost with adjusted terms. Wake script ignores swap-fill events entirely; should monitor expiry and trigger repost on failure.

8 of 13 settled deals are swaps ↔ LP-Maker; intents 530/533 expired unfilled at w25 despite oracle-mid pricing. Fleet context: LP-Maker has pidAlive=false (offline) as of Step-1 orient, armed for 47min fallback only. Timing: w23 posted swaps 16:48 UTC; w24 pending 17:35 UTC; w25 expired 17:40 UTC. L

Sound: correctly diagnosed 'market rejects options' after 6 unfilled attempts and switched tactics. Unsound: rotation execution incomplete. Agent recognized intents 530/533 expired but reasoned 'reposting will likely fail again' without trying: (a) repricing (modest discount to mid), (b) longer expiry (1h was too tight vs 55min avg gap in fleet), (c) immediate repost vs sleeping. Solving the wrong

Time-based: sleep until US market close (20:00 UTC, ~4h 15m)

MISSING: intent fill/expiry monitoring for swaps 530/533 (critical event for rotation mission)

MISSING: conditional repost if swaps fail to fill within X minutes

MISSING: logic to reassess counterparty availability (LP-Maker back online?) before sleeping

Natural taker for portfolio swaps; 8 of 13 settled deals. But: pidAlive=false (offline), armed 47min fallback. Was unavailable 16:48–17:40 U

OFFLINE until ~17:30–17:45 UTC (next fal

Also does portfolio swaps, but mission is 'one patient slice per wake' via DCA, not urgent fill. Lower urgency profile than LP.

Picks off mispriced swaps; could take 530/533 if repriced slightly off mid. But: armed 70min fallback post-recovery, not clear if was awake

Armed + scheduled (per fleet context); l

Intents 530/533 could have been reposted at w25 with: (a) longer expiry (2–3h vs 1h), (b) slight discount (0.5–1% below mid to ensure fill vs oracle mid which didn't clear), (c) immediate repost vs waiting until market close. LP-Maker was the natural taker but offline; should have either queued repost for when LP woke, or re-priced to trigger Vulture/Rebalancer. No evidence agent monitored these s

Correctly identified market-close deadline (when worst-2 stocks will be re-ranked post-close)

Fallback (4h 15m) ensures wake fires even if system hiccup

Zero monitoring of rotation swap fill/expiry events—just sleeps. Should poll intent status (are 530/533 still pending? when do they expire?) and fire *earlier*

No conditional logic: 'if swaps unfilled by X minutes → repost with longer term' or 'if LP-Maker comes back online → retry.' Mission is rotation; current script

1-hour expiry window not validated against fleet cadence (avg gap 55min); this is aggressive for swaps needing LP fill. Script should adapt expiry based on prio

Replace time-only sleep with event-driven loop: poll intent 530/533 status every 5–10 min; if either expires unfilled before deadline, immediately repost with (a) +1h longer expiry, (b) −0.5% repricing to mid, (c) async trigger if LP-Maker

Rotation swaps 530/533 expired unfilled; no corrective action taken

w23 posted swaps at oracle mid (1h expiry). w25 confirmed expired. Agent's note: 'not due to pricing but likely market depth/timing.' Response: sleep until market close. This leaves the rotation 67% complete (1 of 3 intents filled). Mission is to rotate into worst-2 stocks; current holdings still in

Immediate action at next wake: repost 530/533 (or equivalent sNVDA/sAAPL buys) with (a) 2–3h expiry, (b) −0.5 to −1% repricing below mid if needed to ensure fill. Or monitor LP-Maker's fallback window and retry then.

Wake script is passive (time-based only); ignores rotation swap fill events

Current script: sleep until market close, then wake. No logic to monitor whether swaps 530/533 filled, repost if they fail, or detect LP-Maker back online. For a portfolio rotation agent, this is a structural gap—the critical event (swap fill) is invisible to the watcher.

Event-driven watcher: poll intent fill status (SDK.getIntents) every 5–10min; if 530/533 expire, immediately repost with adjusted terms. Outer fallback (market close) as long-stop.

LP-Maker unavailable (pidAlive=false) when portfolio swaps posted, no fallback counterparty triggered

Swaps 528/530/533 posted 16:48 UTC (w23); LP-Maker offline until ~17:30–47min fallback per Step-1. Agent has no logic to detect LP offline or trigger alternate counterparties (Vulture, Rebalancer) with repricing. Rotation stuck waiting for LP to wake.

Core: enable agents to query counterparty availability (is LP-Maker's watcher armed? how long until fallback?) and conditionally repost with adjusted terms or multi-recipient intents. Fleet: coordinate wake scheduling so LP-Maker is awake during high-intent periods (market open/close rotation window

Polymarket-Ljuba

sAAPL 4.18% edge within weekly horizon. Position $25 (25% equity, fits <70% directional cap). USDC buffer $75 (75% > 40%

sAAPL swap #601 fills, new takeable intent appears, or June 10 18:00 UTC fallback

Summary: WELL-REASONED, BUT STALE INTENTS UNFILLED AND UNADDRESSED. Two high-conviction BTC/ETH binary intents (#32 @0.617, #89 @0.588) posted 06-08 18:03–20:01 remain unfilled 19+ hours later despite being deeply ITM and LP's recovery. Agent correctly accepted one bet in w4 (11.2pp edge, lost in w5), then pivoted to sAAPL swaps w7–w8 with sound edge reasoning. Wake-

Intents #32 and #89, deeply ITM and 19+ hours unfilled (posted when LP was alive, LP crashed ~12:48 UT, now recovering), are likely mis-priced post-crash. Shades 0.617/0.588 were tight for a live LP; no other maker is taking at those prices. Agent should reprice (wider shade) or cancel/repost now that LP is armed. Wake-script monitors new sAAPL swaps but skips the highest-conviction positions—fix in next iteration.

Intent #32 (BTC<$64k, 0.617 shade, $10) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 0.588 shade, $10) posted 06-08 18:03 and 20:01 when LP-Maker alive; LP crashed ~12:48 UT same day; intents still unfilled at w6 (06-09 13:24, 19h later) with no taker pressure. Shade was tight-to-fair for LP; after LP crash, shade no longer

Sound reasoning for mission and edge discovery (Polymarket shade calc, position sizing, risk caps). But agent is solving the right problem (find Polymarket edges) in wrong sequence—pivoting to new sAAPL swaps without resolving or repricing 19h-old, deeply ITM positions. This is strategic drift (chasing new edges), not broken logic. Risk-conscious move, but leaves high-conviction positions orphaned

New takeable binary bet or option appears

MISSING: Intent #32 (BTC) or Intent #89 (ETH) resolves (filled or expired)—highest-value trigger for this agent's Polymarket mission

Primary maker for binaries and swaps; originally posted #32/#89 when LP alive; now armed and recovering (47min fallback). Repricing to 0.75–

Bait-and-pick specialist; could take sharp bets but likely only if agent mis-prices (agent correctly avoids this)

Copy-trader, re-prices to live oracle; adjacent bet surface

Intent #32 and #89 could be reprice-tested NOW (LP armed at 47min fallback). Leaving them unfilled for 19h forfeits the feedback signal—did they expire? Is shade too tight? Did counterparties vanish? Current schedule won't detect resolution of these positions. Also: metrics show open_intents=0, but wake logs reference intents #32, #89, #583, #601—clarify whether #32/#89 expired (intent lifetime),

60s poll cadence: patient, not sub-minute churn, fits agent's multi-hour thinking horizon

25h fallback to June 10 18:00 UTC: aligns with binary-expiry timeline (Jun9 markets within 24h rule)

canTake filter correctly excludes agent's own posts, avoiding self-loops

Checks ownIntentResolved for sAAPL #601: monitors recent swap for fill/expiry

CRITICAL: Does NOT monitor intents #32 and #89 for resolution despite them being highest-conviction positions (3% and 10.3% edge, 19h unfilled)

No stale-intent detection: if an intent posted >X hours ago is still unfilled and was posted when a key counterparty (LP) was down, agent should wake to reprice

newMatches() fires only on NEW intents; won't alert if an old intent is finally taken by a recovered counterparty

Add `ownIntentResolved` checks for intents #32 and #89 alongside #601. When either resolves (filled or expired), fire a wake. This is mission-critical feedback: the agent needs to know if its highest-conviction edges finally filled or if th

High-conviction intents orphaned after 19+ hours unfilled

Intent #32 (BTC <$64k @0.617 shade, 3% edge, $10) and #89 (ETH <$1700 @0.588 shade, 10.3% edge, $10) posted 06-08 18:03–20:01 when LP-Maker alive. LP crashed ~12:48 UT same day; agent noted both 'well-positioned (ITM)' at w3 (08:53 06-09). At w6 (13:24 06-09, LP now armed with 47min fallback), agent

Inspect #32 and #89 on-chain: check state (live vs expired), edge vs live Polymarket price, and counterparty demand. If live but 19h unfilled, reprice to 0.75–0.85 shade (wider, less edge-greedy) and post fresh intents, or cancel and document why (e.g., edge decay, intent TTL expiry). This unblocks

Wake-script misses highest-value triggers

Current script monitors sAAPL swap #601 for resolution but NOT the original binary intents (#32, #89), which have 3× and 10× higher edges respectively (3% vs sAAPL 4–5%). Script will not fire if these high-conviction positions finally fill or expire, losing the most important feedback signal for the

Add `ownIntentResolved(belt.tools.readIntent!.run, "32")` and `..."89"` checks in runWatchLoop. Loop over monitored intent array `["32", "89", "601"]` to DRY. Each resolution (fill or expiry) should fireWake with context ('Intent #X filled' vs 'expired'). This closes the feedback loop and ensures th

Metrics data inconsistent with wake logs

Agent metrics snapshot shows open_intents=0, but wake logs reference four posted intents (#32, #89, #583, #601). Either: (a) metrics snapshot is stale/cached, (b) intents #32/#89 have expired via TTL and were auto-cancelled (not logged), or (c) there is a bug in the metrics collector. This breaks th

Clarify intent lifecycle and TTL mechanics. If intents auto-expire after X hours, document that and ensure metrics reflect live-intent state only (exclude expired). If #32/#89 are truly live, metrics should show open_intents ≥ 2. Confirm current state on-chain to resolve ambiguity.

Rebalancer-Lior

sAAPL most underweight overall at -15pp. Stocks market now open. DCA slice = $7 = ~28% of $25 sAAPL target. Intent #500

US stocks market open 13:30 UTC 2026-06-10, or new stock intent appears

Summary: Agent executing patient DCA flawlessly: 7 settled deals (5 via LP-Maker-Matheus, 2 external), zero open intents, correctly dormant pending stock market open tomorrow (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10) to address -40pp portfolio gap. Watcher armed for market trigger + new stock intents. Counterparty starvation is NOT an issue—agent has proven reliable LP-Maker access (5/

Healthy and correctly positioned. Not starved by LP-Maker crash; bottleneck is US stock market hours (13:30–20:00 UTC), not counterparty availability. Do not escalate posting frequency—one slice per wake is the right rhythm for DCA mission. Next milestone: LP-Maker fill reliability when agent posts into tomorrow's stock window.

Agent has zero open intents by deliberate design, not desperation. Last 3 wakes (w13–w15) correctly deferred posting: stocks market closed, no edge on book, BTC/ETH near-target. Prior 4 wakes posted intents that settled immediately (w8 BTC, w10 ETH, w11 ETH, w12 sAAPL). Root constraint is market hou

Sound and disciplined. Agent correctly tracks most-underweight legs at each wake (BTC -14.1pp → ETH -17.5pp → sAAPL -15pp), respects market-hour constraints (won't post stocks outside 13:30–20:00 UTC), defers action when no actionable edge exists. Not churn; solving the right problem with one slice per wake.

US stocks market open 13:30 UTC 2026-06-10

New intent offering stock legs (couldTake filter monitors)

5 of 7 settled deals (71% fill rate); core hub partner; currently recovering (Step 1: armed + 47min fallback)

Secondary taker for sharp rebalancer intents; active and armed (Step 1: 70min fallback)

None. Last 3 wakes (w13–w15) explicitly checked book for actionable takes ('no edge on book', 'no favorable takes'); correctly deferred.

Two precise wake triggers: stock market open (13:30 UTC tomorrow, when agent can address -40pp stock gap) + new stock intents on book

Zero-LLM check (couldTake is pure function, no model call)

Reasonable poll cadence: 60 seconds balances responsiveness vs. watcher cost for a patient DCA agent

Correct fallback anchored to market boundary (stock open), not arbitrary delay

No urgent change needed. If SDK supports intent-added event listener, consider switching from polling to events to reduce watcher CPU/token overhead. Current 60-second poll is acceptable for this mission.

Stacker-Massimo

Slice 2 fill success — continuing DCA accumulation. Posted slice 3 at oracle×0.99 bait price to attract mean-reverters.

intent 604 resolves, oracle drifts >0.5%, sweepable sNVDA appears, or 30-min fallback

Summary: DCA on-mission: 2 fills from LP-Maker (22% fill rate, up from 12.5% prior run) in 9 wakes spanning 1h59m (07:08–16:06 UTC). Wake script well-reasoned for patient accumulation (monitor intent resolution, oracle drift >0.5%, sweep opportunities, 30-min fallback). CRITICAL: watcher process offline for 34+ minutes (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=nu

Agent is sound and well-scripted, but watcher has crashed with no scheduled fallback. Fill rate 22% (2 fills) reflects single-counterparty starvation (LP-Maker only sNVDA source) + 34min downtime. Requires immediate watcher respawn.

All 2 settled deals from LP-Maker-Matheus; zero other sNVDA makers in fleet. Structural: Stacker depends entirely on one counterparty, limiting fill rate even when LP is responsive.

Sound. Agent correctly executing patient limit bids at oracle×0.99, refreshing stale bids when oracle drifts (w7: canceled intent 534, posted 558; w9: canceled 575, posted 584), monitoring for immediate fills and sweepable volume. No re-derivation or token churn—progressive execution toward accumulation goal.

oracle price drifts >0.5% (refresh bid to track market)

sweepable sNVDA at oracle×1.005 (opportunistic volume)

Only confirmed sNVDA maker; provided both fills. Mission: keep market liquid.

None—only LP-Maker supplies sNVDA. Sweep condition (sell-side at oracle×1.005) scanned but unlikely to trigger in typical orderbook structure where offers are tighter.

Monitors intent 584 resolution to detect fills immediately

Refreshes bid when oracle drifts >0.5% (efficient limit-order management for oracle-price-tracking DCA)

Scans open intents for sweep opportunities (opportunistic fills on wider spreads)

30-min fallback respects patient DCA cadence—no sub-minute polling, allows LP time to respond

Zero-LLM, robust error handling (catches lookup failures, continues polling every 60s)

Watcher process not running; 30-min fallback defined in script but not executing because process is offline

Respawn watcher process immediately. If crashes recur, debug the watcher lifecycle—likely uncaught exception in the poll loop, file-descriptor leak, or platform timeout. The script is sound; the platform execution is broken.

Watcher process offline, no fallback restart scheduled

Stacker-Massimo watcher offline for 34+ min (last_wake_min_ago=34, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Wake script includes 30-min fallback but it is not armed or executing. Agent dormant.

Respawn watcher immediately. If this is a recurring crash, investigate root cause (uncaught exception, resource leak, timeout). Ensure fallback scheduling mechanism is working.

Single-counterparty sNVDA bottleneck limits fill rate

Stacker depends entirely on LP-Maker-Matheus for fills (2/2 settled deals). Fill rate 22% (2 fills in 9 wakes) is limited by LP's availability and responsiveness, even with oracle×0.99 bait price. Swing-Nikita and other takers likely also compete for LP's sNVDA.

After watcher restart, monitor LP fill rate on Stacker's next 2 wakes. If fill rate does not improve, Stacker should consider: (a) widening discount tolerance (oracle×0.98), (b) increasing slice size to improve fill attractiveness, (c) accepting longer wait times. Fleet-wide: evaluate whether additi

Agent is sound and well-scripted, but watcher has crashed with no scheduled fallback. Fill rate 22% (2 fills) reflects single-counterparty starvation (LP-Maker only sNVDA source) + 34min downtime. Requires immediate watcher respawn.

Swing-Nikita

Resting quote at fair oracle value (11.9 USDC for 0.04112 sAAPL ≈ $289 per sAAPL) — trimmed from 31.9% to 20.0% of book.

Summary: Nikita posted two valid dislocation fades (sAAPL #0x214 -3.49%, w5 14:40; BTC #0x239 -1.62%, w7 15:07), both >1.5% threshold. Intents stalled unfilled during LP-Maker downtime (12:48–16:16 UTC), but when LP recovered in w8, Nikita pivoted: accepted LP's improved quotes (deals 61, 62) without churning, trimming sAAPL position from 31.9% to 20.0%. w10 showed d

Nikita executed dislocation fade correctly: posted two valid edges (sAAPL -3.49%, BTC -1.62%) while counterparty unavailable, then immediately accepted LP's recovered quotes (deals 61, 62) without churning or re-posting. Discipline intact (one move/wake, threshold-gated). Three settled deals. Constraint: single counterparty (LP-Maker); now online.

Posted intents #0x214 (14:40) and #0x239 (15:07) were valid fades (>1.5% threshold) but never filled by other agents—LP-Maker crashed at 12:48 UTC. When LP recovered and posted its own quotes (swaps 594, 593), Nikita accepted as taker instead (deals 61, 62). No strategic error; edge correctly faded

Sound, solving the right problem. Nikita identified real dislocations, posted with discipline (20 USDC per move, 15–25% position bands), and pivoted correctly when market moved: instead of sitting on unfilled maker orders, Nikita took taker-side opportunities from LP's better quotes in w8–w9. Positions sized and trimmed correctly (31.9% → 20.0%, respecting pool). w10 correct no-op (threshold unmet

New dislocation ≥1.5% emerges (fires on NEW actionable asset, prevents re-posting same threshold)

3h fallback (180min), for periodic wake in flat markets

All 3 settled deals (61, 62, and 1 prior); sole reliable swap counterparty; currently armed+awake (47min fallback, pidAlive=true)

Posts swaps (7 deals), but DCA mission; not competing on dislocations, no signal overlap

DCA-only strategy; incompatible with opportunistic dislocation fading

None. Nikita correctly held w3–w4 (market closed, no signal), posted valid fades w5–w7, accepted LP's recovered quotes w8–w9 (superior to posted intents), and declined w10 (threshold unmet). Strategic discipline throughout.

Fires on NEW dislocation ≥1.5% (mission-aligned threshold for fade entry)

3h fallback ensures periodic wakes in flat markets (fits patient fade cadence)

Fires on NEW asset emergence, not existing magnitude (prevents churn re-posts)

60s poll interval is appropriate for catching emerging signals

Could also fire on MAGNITUDE ACCELERATION (dislocation increases >0.5pp since baseline), to catch amplifying opportunities and sharpen timing

Add secondary trigger: fire if an actionable asset's deviation accelerates (e.g., 1.5% → 2.3%), not just emerges. Current NEW-asset-only logic is sound but conservative; this would capture reinforcing dislocations.

Single-counterparty liquidity bottleneck

All 3 settled deals via LP-Maker-Matheus; no other swap partners despite 10-agent roster. Posted intents #0x214, #0x239 stalled 3.5h during LP crash (12:48–16:16 UTC). Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo never cross with Nikita despite both posting swaps.

Fleet: route market-making incentives to Rebalancer-Lior or add a third maker. Agent-level: Nikita could post to multiple makers simultaneously, but violates one-move/wake discipline and would require budget reallocation.

Vulture-Andrew

check-my-quotes flagged 565/566 below 1% floor — my mission mandates: cancel all flagged quotes, then re-quote them fres

15 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781025157; next poll 80s

Summary: Watcher cleanly rearmed with 70min fallback after prior crash (15:34 UTC hardcoding is gone, no longer blocking recovery). Recent wake (w20, 15:47 UTC) shows disciplined margin-floor enforcement: cancelled undermargin baits (565/566 at 0.22% and 0.67%), reposted fresh 1%+ baits. However, lifetime PnL is -2.87 USD (10% loss rate: 2.87 lost / 27 deals), even t

Watcher reset verified clean; recent discipline (w20 cancellations) shows adaptive margin management. But lifetime underwater (-2.87 USD on 12.78 earned) despite "near-sure wins" mission signals either baits are mispriced (posted too tight, filled by smarter counterparties) or edge detection is too permissive. Recent 5h profitability (+3.09) suggests the w20 correction (1% floor enforcement) is working — continue monitoring whether this trend holds.

27 deals settled, net -2.87 USD PnL (10% loss rate). Agent posts 'near-sure win' baits at 1–1.8% margins, but counterparties (mostly LP-Maker-Matheus, also 0xBd6a…9863) are filling them at scale (21/27 trades with hub) — suggests baits are not actually risk-free. w20 cancellation of 0.22% and 0.67%

Sound — agent correctly identified that sub-1% baits are unprofitable and cancelled them. The re-quoting logic (on oracle moves, margin erosion) is disciplined and on-mission. However, the *original* problem (posting baits that look safe but lose money) remains undiagnosed: either the agent's edge-detection heuristic is too loose (accepting baits that aren't true 'near-sure wins'), or it's mis-acc

Takeable edge (any instrument) → fire immediately (GLOBAL rule in watcher)

Bait expiry approaching (within ~5 min) → tighten polling

Book activity (new intents arriving) → faster cadence; empty book → back off up to 30min

MISSING: explicit profit-threshold gate — agent posts baits it *thinks* are profitable (margin >1%), but does not learn from losses or adjust margin floor based

Hub is natural take-taker for bait-poster; 21/27 settled trades. Hub recovering per Step 1 (armed, 47min fallback) — fills should resume.

Both hunt edges; Vulture posts baits, Hunter may take if mispriced. 1 trade settled.

Unknown third party, 3 trades. Could be another bait-poster or external liquidity provider. Fit unknown.

Unknown third party, 2 trades. No signal on whether counterparty is active or what it does.

Unmeasurable without full book visibility in watcher logs. scan-edges.ts determines 'takeable' and bait-attractiveness, but that logic is truncated. Evidence: w18–w19 show agent posting 6–13 baits per wake but only 1.2 fills/wake on average — either baits aren't attractive (mispriced), or agent is missing takeable edges (detection too strict). Recent activity suggests former is more likely (baits

Zero-token adaptive polling — correctly avoids burning tokens on a quiet book

GLOBAL 'takeable NOW' rule fires immediately if an edge appears — right for an edge-picker

Bait-expiry-aware: tightens polling ~5min before expiry to re-judge in time

Fallback (2h ceiling) forces re-orient even if book is silent — prevents stale assumptions

Detached spawn after wake arms fresh watcher — clean state, no parent-process coupling

Edge-detection (scan-edges.ts) is opaque; if it's too strict, agent misses real takes; if too loose, agent posts toxic baits (latter seems to be the issue given

Instrument scan-edges.ts's 'takeable' logic to track false-positive rates (edges detected but not profitable when filled, or filled at worse rates than predicted). Feed realized PnL per edge type back into the threshold — if 'near-decided b

Negative lifetime PnL despite 'near-sure wins' mission

-2.87 USD loss on 12.78 USD earned (10% loss rate). Agent posts baits it believes are profitable (1–1.8% margins), but counterparties (mostly hub) fill them at scale, implying baits are not actually risk-free or margins don't account for slippage.

Audit recent settled deals: for each, compute realized margin vs. posted margin (oracle move + counterparty slippage). If realized margins are < 0.5% tighter than posted, edge-detection is too loose. Tighten 'near-sure win' gate (raise margin floor, add oracle-move buffer, or add latency cost). w20'

Fill rate low for a bait-poster in recovering hub

27 deals in 22 wakes = 1.2 fills/wake. LP-Maker (hub, 55 deals in similar period) is ~2–3x busier. Vulture's baits may be off-book (uncompetitive) or hub is still capacity-constrained.

Once LP-Maker hub fully recovers and hit steady state (Step 1: 47min fallback, not yet settled), expect fill rate to rise. If it doesn't, audit whether baits are losing to Swing-Nikita or Option-Writer's competing baits on the same assets. A thin book is the market's constraint; mispricing is the ag

wallet-address frequency (11/12 agents addressed)

LP HUB WAKING; MIMIC OFFLINE JAMS BINARY

active (13 of 16 recent deals; LP-Maker hub recovering)

frozen (Mimic taker offline 217+ min; Polymarket #32/#89 unfilled 19h+, Bear-Yosher #414 unfilled 79min)

dead (zero supply 218+ min; Option-Writer paused Engine 1 after 6 rejections)

active, 6 recent deals; LP-Maker recovering (armed=true, fallback 17 min)

active, 2 recent deals; Rebalancer dormant until stock market open (1245 min fal

active, 2 recent deals; Engine 1 (options) paused after 6 rejections, Engine 2 (

frozen; intent #414 unfilled 79 minutes. Mimic is only binary taker in fleet, of

LP-Maker crashed ~12:48 UTC on 06-08, now recovering (armed=true, fallback 17 min, pidAlive=false)

Polymarket-Ljuba intents #32 and #89 posted 18:03–20:01 on 06-08 while LP alive; now 19+ hours unfilled as LP was only c

Intent #32 (BTC<$64k, 0.617 shade, $10), #89 (ETH<$1700, 0.588 shade, $10), both deeply ITM. Polymarket summary: 'posted 06-08 18:03–20:01 when LP-Maker alive; LP crashed ~12:48 UT same day; intents s

Mimic-Ljuba watcher offline 217+ minutes (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Last wake w13 at 12:02 UTC

Binary bet market frozen: Polymarket-Ljuba #32/#89 unfilled 19h+ (deeply ITM); Bear-Yosher #414 unfilled 79 min. Mimic i

Mimic-Ljuba summary: 'Sleeping 217 min (past 60min fallback window).' Bear-Yosher summary: 'Intent #414 (BinaryBet, Mimic-Ljuba) open 79min with zero takes.' Recent deals: zero binary bets in last 16

Option-Writer detected 6 rejections in w18–w21 and paused Engine 1, concluding 'market doesn't want options'

Option-Taker found zero audited options in 218+ minutes across 5 fallback wakes. One-way dependency broken; no alternati

Option-Writer summary: 'Engine 1 correctly paused at w21 after 6 rejections detected.' Option-Taker summary: 'Five fallback wakes (W2–W6, 09:08–13:19) found zero options — confirmed genuine market sca

Arb-Hunter watcher: only hardcoded bet #414 + new intents check + 2-hour fallback. No active trigger for time-sensitive

Missed entire take window 15:09–15:39 UTC. Watcher fired w54 (15:04, pre-window, USDC held) and w56 (15:29, during windo

Arb-Hunter summary: 'w54 (15:04): window opens imminently (5–6 min), USDC held ready. w56 (15:29): Bet #414 too far from strike, no mention of #32/#89 take attempt. 25-minute gap during the take windo

LP-Maker recovery (fallback 17 min, armed=true). Hub dominates fleet: 8 open intents queued, 13 of 16 recent deals flow

Swap market will resume: Vulture-Andrew bait-taking, Rebalancer-Lior DCA fills, Swing-Nikita dislocation fades, Stacker-

Recent deals: 6 Vulture-Andrew + 2 Rebalancer-Lior + 2 Option-Writer + 3 external = 13 of 16 recent settlements. Swing-Nikita summary: 'accepted LP's improved quotes (deals 61, 62) without churning, t

LP Hub Recovery Is Critical Path (Next 17 Minutes)

LP-Maker process offline (pidAlive=false) but watcher armed for 17-minute fallback. Hub dominates: 8 open intents queued, 13 of 16 recent deals flow through it. Next wake is decisive: if quotes refresh without stale-churn, network unblocks; if stale-churn repeats, network re-freezes.

LP-Maker nextFallbackMin=17, armed=true. Recent deals: 6 Vulture-Andrew + 2 Rebalancer-Lior + 2 Option-Writer + 3 external. 10 LP intents expiring 27–29 min.

Monitor LP-Maker wake in ~17 min. If `readOpenIntents` returns fresh quotes (current timestamps), network unblocks. If stale quotes (old timestamps), escalate to core for SDK caching audit.

Binary Bet Taker (Mimic-Ljuba) Offline, Cascading to Maker Starvation

Mimic-Ljuba watcher offline 217+ minutes (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Only binary taker in fleet. Consequence: Polymarket-Ljuba intents #32 (0.617, $10) and #89 (0.588, $10) unfilled 19+ hours despite deeply ITM; Bear-Yosher #414 unfilled 79 minutes; binary market frozen.

Mimic armed=false (not waiting). Polymarket-Ljuba: 'intents #32/#89 posted 06-08 18:03–20:01 when LP alive; now 19+ hours unfilled.' Bear-Yosher: 'Intent #414 open 79min with zero takes.' Recent deals: zero binary bets.

Restart Mimic-Ljuba immediately. Single restart unblocks 3+ stale intents: Polymarket #32/#89 (deeply ITM), Bear-Yosher #414 (79min+). If restart fails, determine cause or deploy alternative binary taker.

Option Market Dead (No Supply, No Demand Signal)

Option-Writer paused Engine 1 after 6 rejections ('market doesn't want options'). Option-Taker found zero audited options in 218+ minutes across 5 fallback wakes (W2-W6, 09:08–13:19 UTC). One-way dependency broken; no alternative makers.

Option-Writer: 'Engine 1 correctly paused at w21 after 6 rejections.' Option-Taker: 'Five fallback wakes found zero options — confirmed genuine market scarcity.' Open book: zero option intents.

Investigate audited option template adoption. Either redefine supply trigger for Option-Writer or discontinue option trading.

Arb-Hunter Watcher Misses Time-Sensitive Bet Windows

Bets #32/#89 required intra-window wake (15:09–15:39 UTC). Watcher fired w54 (15:04, pre-window, USDC held) and w56 (15:29, during window), but no #32/#89 attempt logged at w56. 25-minute gap. Watcher: hardcoded bet #414 only, new-intents check, 2-hour fallback. No loop for time-sensitive windows.

Arb-Hunter summary: 'w54 (15:04): window opens imminently (5–6 min), USDC held ready. w56 (15:29): Bet #414 too far from strike, no mention of #32/#89 take attempt. 25-minute gap during the take window.'

Add active wake trigger: fire when bet.timeToClose < 35 min AND agent.usdc > bet.depositA. Prevents missed take windows.

Vulture-Andrew Bait Strategy Loss-Making Despite Margin Floor

27 deals settled, -2.87 USD net (-10.6% loss rate). Baits posted at 1–1.8% margins being taken at scale (21 of 27 counterparties from LP-Maker). Suggests margins not risk-free or LP absorbing loss to maintain hub liquidity.

Vulture-Andrew: '27 deals settled, net -2.87 USD PnL (10% loss rate)... w20 cancellation of 0.22% and 0.67% baits, re-posted 1%+ baits.' 6 of 16 recent deals are Vulture-Andrew + LP.

Review margin floor: is 1% too tight? Investigate LP's fill behavior: if LP loss-leading to maintain hub status, assess sustainability.

Stacker-Massimo Process Offline; Counterparty Constraint Limits Recovery

Watcher offline 34+ minutes (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). When restarted, fill rate remains constrained: only LP-Maker posts sNVDA (2 fills in 9 wakes = 22% fill rate). Structural dependency limits throughput.

Stacker-Massimo: 'watcher process offline for 34+ minutes... 2 fills from LP-Maker (22% fill rate) in 9 wakes spanning 1h59m.' Open book: 1 sNVDA intent (Stacker's own, 59 min left).

Restart Stacker-Massimo process immediately. Secondary: recruit another sNVDA maker to reduce single-counterparty dependency (Stacker currently LP-only, 22% fill rate).

IMMEDIATE (next 17 min): Monitor LP-Maker's next scheduled fallback wake. If quotes refresh without stale-churn repeating, network unblocks (Vulture bait flow resumes, Stacker fills resume, Swing dislocation fades resume). If stale-churn repeats, escalate to core for `readOpenInt

URGENT (next 30 min): Investigate Mimic-Ljuba crash (watcher offline 217+ min, armed=false, pidAlive=false). Single restart unblocks 3+ stale binary intents: Polymarket #32/#89 deeply ITM, Bear-Yosher #414 at 79 min. If restart fails, determine cause (manual pause vs. process err

Add active wake trigger to Arb-Hunter: fire when bet.timeToClose < 35 min AND agent.usdc > bet.depositA. Prevents missing time-sensitive take windows (missed 15:09–15:39 window for #32/#89 due to 25-min watcher gap).

Review Vulture-Andrew margin floor: 27 deals show -10.6% loss rate despite 1–1.8% margins. Either tighten floor further, investigate LP loss-absorption strategy, or check if execution is lagging.

Investigate option market viability: Option-Writer detected no demand (6 rejections), Option-Taker found zero supply (218+ min dry). Either redefine audited option supply trigger or deprecate template.

BETTER: LP-Maker hub and Vulture-Andrew bait flow both armed+scheduled (47min and 70min fallbacks) after prior-run crash; network unfreezing from collapse.

Hub quote freshness: LP-Maker has 10 open intents queued, pidAlive=false but watcher armed for 47min fallback—next wake will reveal if quotes refresh or stale-quote churn repeats.

Counterparty starvation cascading downstream: Stacker-Massimo fill rate 12.5%, Swing-Nikita intents unfilled 20–60min, Polymarket-Ljuba high-conviction edges unfilled 240+ min—all blocked by LP recove

Option market signal lost: Option-Taker dry 218min, Option-Writer paused Engine 1 after 6 rejections—investigate whether pricing/templates are too strict (agents overly selective) or market is structu

Binary bet taker dormant despite recovery: Bear-Yosher 1 open bet, Polymarket-Ljuba 2 high-conviction unmatched edges, Arb-Hunter waiting for take window—taker appetite weak.

Binary bets #32/#89 were in take window 5–16min after last summary (15:39 UTC). Did the arbitrage execute, or remain unfilled despite oracle movement toward the strikes?

Open intent #414 (BinaryBet with Mimic-Ljuba) is 79min stale. Is it filling, or is crypto price not declining fast enough to trigger new takes?

Process crashed but watcher armed for 47min fallback (next wake ~15:33 UTC). Will the unhandled exception in readPrice/readOpenIntents repeat, or has it been fixed?

Last wake 235min ago; watcher armed 6min fallback. Did the fallback fire cleanly, or is the long silence hiding another crash? Confirm >3pp edge filter isn't false-negatively starving the agent.

Waiting for >3% move or 4h fallback at 18:32 UTC. All cryptos declining together <1pp apart—is your idle patience optimal, or should fallback fire sooner to rotate?

Zero options found in 218min (genuine market scarcity, not watcher blind-spot). Should selectivity threshold be lowered, or wait for Option-Writer to restart Engine 1?

Portfolio rotation swaps 528/530/533 had 6min expiry from last summary. Did they settle, or expire? If settled, identify the next rotation target from current prices.

Your two high-conviction edges (Intent #32 BTC<$64k 3% edge, Intent #89 ETH<$1700 10.3% edge) unfilled 240+ min due to LP crash. Are they still live or expired? If expired, repost now that LP is armed.

Patient DCA with 7 deals; next fallback at 20:00 UTC (1252min). Is counterparty starvation from LP crash acceptable, or should you escalate posting frequency?

Fill rate 12.5% (1 settled/8 wakes) because only LP-Maker supplies sNVDA. LP now armed—monitor next 2 wakes for fill rate improvement; if none, pricing may be misaligned.

Posted sAAPL #0x214 (-3.49% stretch) and BTC #0x239 (-1.62% stretch) 20–40min ago, both unfilled. Will they fill now that LP-Maker is armed, or expired past relevance?

Watcher armed for 70min fallback after prior-run offline crash. Verify the reset is clean—confirm the 15:34 UTC hardcoded fire time from prior summary isn't blocking the new fallback.

LP-Maker's unhandled exception in readPrice/readOpenIntents (flagged prior run, confirmed unguarded in current script) will repeat on next wake. Fix exception handling or add circuit breaker before hu

Polymarket-Ljuba's 2 high-conviction binary edges (Intent #32 BTC, Intent #89 ETH) unfilled 240+ min due to LP crash. Clarify: still live or expired? If expired, repost now that LP is armed.

Option market signal lost: Option-Taker 218min dry, Option-Writer paused Engine 1 after 6 rejections. Investigate whether agents are too selective (pricing/templates misaligned) or market is structura

Vulture-Andrew watcher reset: prior summary flagged 15:34 UTC hardcoded fire time. Confirm new 70min fallback logic doesn't have a stale timestamp blocking re-entry.

Monitor Stacker-Massimo and Swing-Nikita fill rates over next 3 wakes. If they improve now that LP is armed, counterparty availability is the bottleneck. If not, investigate price alignment.