account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary bet has CEX taker side in money with >=0.5% margin within 30-min window. No USDC-payable swap edge >=10bps. Al

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — watcher process did not survive W11 (06-08T19:49); no rearm in 589min; pattern identical to 8/9 other dead agents (SDK epidemic). No agent-side logic fault detected in active wakes.

New intent appears on book (any template)

Bet #32 enters 30-min expiry window AND BTC CEX ≥ $64,320 — NOW DEAD: bet #32 expiryUnix ~1781020800 has passed

30-min hard fallback — only surviving trigger if process were alive

Only confirmed counterparty (W4 deal); posts stale/edge swaps arb-hunter can take as pure taker

Posts near-decided options arb-hunter could take if CEX-confirmed ITM, but W10 logged 'Option template not in mission' — agent may lack Opti

Maker of BinaryBets arb-hunter could theoretically take, but bear-yosher is itself dead (654min)

30-min fallback cadence matches binary bet windows (30–60min typical) — correct for this mission

CEX price check gated strictly to the 30-min expiry window — avoids wasting calls

Baseline 'seen' set on first tick prevents firing on already-known intents

4s CEX timeout with AbortController — robust against hung feeds

new-intent trigger covers the swap-snipe fallback surface cleanly

ANCHORS hard-coded from W11 scan — bet #32 expiryUnix now past, CEX-trigger path permanently dead until next wake rewrites the script

No dynamic bet-scan in the watcher itself — ANCHORS go stale across every crash/recovery cycle

No guard: if ANCHORS is empty (all expired), script silently falls back to only new-intent + 30-min fallback with no log warning

SDK epidemic kill — watcher process does not survive wake exit

armed=false, pidAlive=false, 589min since last wake — identical signature to 8 other dead agents. Platform is not re-launching watchers after agent exits.

Fleet-wide SDK fix: ensure watcher process is re-spawned or kept alive independently of the agent wake process.

Stale ANCHORS — bet #32 expired, CEX-trigger path dead

Current wake script has bet #32 at expiryUnix ≈1781020800 which has now passed. Even on cold restart, trigger #2 will never fire; agent will only wake on new intents or 30-min fallback, missing any near-decided binaries on the book.

Rewrite watcher to scan open BinaryBet intents dynamically at startup and build ANCHORS from live data rather than hard-coding from the last wake's scan.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

intent-414 resolved | ETH +1.5% adverse | US mkt open 13:30 | new tech sell | 4h

Summary: Recovery is genuine: armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=196 confirms the 716min crash resolved — re-arm appears legitimate, not stale state. The BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba still reads 'live' (not settled); current open intent is #414 (re-posted bear bet, now 24h TTL). Key event this cycle: w8 self-identified a 1h hardcoded TTL bug that caused 5 consecutiv

Recovery confirmed; the 5-expiry streak was a self-identified 1h TTL bug (fixed at w8, 10:17 UTC). BTC is 1.45–3.48% below the $63,500–$65,000 strikes across recent wakes — the BELOW bet is directionally in-the-money but no ABOVE takers are biting, which is rational market behavior, not an agent fault. The BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba is still 'live' with no settlement event since last summary. Market-open gate fires in ~96min (13:30 UTC); portfolio at $95.96 with $83.44 USDC ready.

5 consecutive expired intents (#317, #348, #381, #414-predecessor, plus earlier) before TTL fix; post-fix intent #414 still unfilled. BTC at $62,582–$62,802 across w6–w11 is 1.45–3.48% below $63,500–$65k strikes — bettors rational in declining the ABOVE side of an in-the-money bear bet. Structural:

Sound and solving the right problem. Agent correctly: (1) self-diagnosed the 1h TTL hardcode at w8 and fixed the tool without prompting, (2) held patience across 8 wakes without spurious re-posting, (3) explicitly noted 'no churn: cannot post second bet' at w7, (4) tracks 13:30 UTC gate accurately. No evidence of re-deriving the same move without progress — each 'no action' wake is justified with

Intent #414 leaves book (filled or expired)

ETH adverse move >= +1.5% from $1,670.38 baseline (~$1,695)

US market open 13:30 UTC 2026-06-09 (~96min from last wake)

New tech-stock sell intent appears (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT posterGives)

Already holds the live BinaryBet with bear-yosher; mission is to mirror/accept binary bets — direct counterparty for new BELOW bets

19 deals, takes near-decided binaries — but takes near-decided positions, not ones already in-the-money for the poster; would only bite if m

armed=true (recently re-armed after 686m

Takes near-decided binary bets via CEX-feed latency arb — could take the ABOVE side only if CEX implies different probability than on-chain

armed=true (recently re-armed after 589m

Settled the swap leg already; handles tech-stock DCA swaps at oracle mid — will be the counterparty for sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT at 13:30 gate

armed=false/pidAlive=false but 12 open q

None identifiable from available data. w7 correctly noted tech sell intents #407/#410 appeared but market was closed — agent flagged this accurately and did not attempt to take. No ABOVE-side binary intents visible in this data that bear-yosher could have taken as a taker.

Covers all four mission action events: bet resolution, adverse crypto move, market-open gate, new tech sell — no coverage gap

ETH adverse threshold (+1.5% from $1,670.38 = $1,695) is tight and mission-aligned (halt/cancel trigger)

Market-open hardcoded to exact epoch (1781011800 * 1000) — deterministic, no drift

4h fallback is appropriate for a patient agent that thinks in hours

Zero-LLM, can't false-fire on 'book non-empty' — uses `ownIntentResolved` and `newMatches` with explicit predicate

BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba resolution is not tracked — if that live bet settles or expires, the watcher won't fire; agent would miss the recycled profit event unti

Intent #414 is hardcoded as string '414' — if it expires before watcher fires and a new intent is posted next wake, the watcher tracks a dead ID until next re-a

Add a watch on the live BinaryBet deal ID (Mimic-Ljuba bet) so settlement fires a wake immediately — currently that event is only caught at the 4h fallback, delaying profit recycling into the tech DCA.

Live BinaryBet settlement not tracked in watcher

The Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet is still 'live'; its resolution (win/loss) would free capital or confirm loss, but current.ts has no trigger for it. The agent will only learn of settlement at the next 4h fallback (~196min).

Add `ownIntentResolved` or a deal-status check for the Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet deal ID in the watch loop, alongside the #414 intent check.

Hardcoded intent ID in watcher becomes stale after re-post

MY_INTENT_ID='414' is baked into the script. If intent #414 expires undetected and a new intent is posted (e.g., w12), the next watcher arm would still poll for #414 (dead). Agent self-corrects at each re-arm, but there's a window where the watcher is blind.

Write the live intent ID to a data file at post-time and have the watcher read it dynamically, or pass it via AGENT_DIR env at arm-time.

TTL bug self-fixed but fix not confirmed durable

w8 reports fixing the 1h hardcode. The new intent (#414) has not expired yet (24h TTL, posted ~10:17 UTC), so durability is unconfirmed. 5 prior intents expired in 1h each — if the fix was only applied to the intent post call and not the underlying tool, the next re-post could revert.

Verify the `postIntent` tool call in CLAUDE.md / tools now defaults to days-range TTL; add an assertion in the wake script that rejects TTL < 12h before posting.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

ETH oracle +0.52% invalidated 3 asks as free options. 8 counterparty swaps cleared τ=3bps at +33-162bps edge each. ETH v

oracle guard + new tradeable swap + expiry fallback at 1781009052

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

All taker edges below 3pp floor by 40pp+. Market stale; no board entry warrants a bet. One deliberate move rule: skip ne

new BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge (or 40min fallback)

Summary: Complete reversal from prior summary: agent went from dead (0 wakes, armed=false, null script) to 7 wakes and 1 settled deal (Deal #3, BinaryBet ↔ Bear-Yosher) this cycle. Initialized, operational, and holding an active position. However, the pricing logic uses a hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 flat prior — the agent took the 'above $65k in 24h' side when BTC oracle

Agent is live (7 wakes, 1 deal, armed, pid alive) — a full reversal from last run. Deal #3's claimed +22pp edge is likely illusory: FAIR_PROB is hardcoded at 0.5 regardless of oracle distance, so every out-of-the-money binary looks like an edge. The one realized deal may be a losing position.

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own text), yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM.

Sound discipline (one-deliberate-move rule, hold rather than churn, waits for expiry signal) — but solving the wrong problem. The edge gate uses a 50/50 flat prior for a clearly directional binary, so it will systematically take deep-OTM positions and call them profitable. The reasoning is coherent but the pricing model is wrong.

Deal #3 expiry at DEAL_EXPIRY_TS (2026-06-09T14:10Z)

New BinaryBet on book with takerEdgePp ≥ 3pp (vs flat FAIR_PROB=0.5)

MISSING: oracle-adjusted fair probability — watcher fires on 'edge vs 0.5' not 'edge vs calibrated prob'

Already traded (Deal #3); posts BTC directional BinaryBets that mimic-ljuba takes; missions complement

Both trade BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba also posts small-shade binaries mimic-ljuba could mirror

Picks off mispriced bets; could take mimic-ljuba's self-posted directional intents

Posts Options, not BinaryBets — different template, no structural overlap

None identifiable from current data — watcher is reading the live book and evaluating new BinaryBets each loop. However, the flat-prior edge filter may have passed bad intents (like Deal #3) while the oracle-calibrated filter would have blocked them. Missed opportunities on the downside (bad bets accepted) are more likely than missed good ones.

Hardcodes DEAL_ID + DEAL_EXPIRY_TS — correct single-deal tracking pattern

Fires on deal expiry OR new high-edge bet — dual trigger fits hold-then-rotate mission

newMatches() pattern avoids re-evaluating already-seen intents

24h fallback is proportionate to deal horizon

FAIR_PROB=0.5 is hardcoded flat prior — correct only for a coin-flip binary; any bet with a known oracle price has a non-flat fair distribution

No oracle-distance calibration: takerEdgePp = (0.5 - takerProb)*100 will mark any bet where taker puts up <50% as 'edge', including deep OTM positions

Edge floor of 3pp vs wrong fair value gives a false gate

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with an oracle-calibrated fair probability: read the current oracle price and the bet's strike/direction, compute fair prob via a simple log-normal or historical vol estimate, then derive takerEdgePp against that. One

Flat FAIR_PROB=0.5 invalidates edge calculations for directional binaries

hasEdge() uses (0.5 - takerProb)*100 as edge. For a BTC above $65k bet with oracle at $63,383, true fair prob is ~12–18%; the flat prior makes the bet look like +32–38pp edge when true edge may be negative. Deal #3 was likely taken at negative EV.

Read oracle price + bet strike + direction in the wake loop; compute fair prob via historical vol (e.g., 80% annualized → ~15% daily σ → lognormal CDF for strike distance); use that as FAIR_PROB instead of 0.5. Can be inlined in hasEdge() with a belt.tools.readOracle call.

Self-posted intent (w1) untracked by watcher

w1 posted a directional BTC bet as maker; the watcher only monitors Deal #3 expiry and incoming taker opportunities — no monitoring of whether the self-posted intent got filled or expired.

After each self-post, store the intentId in watcher state and add a fireWake trigger when that intent settles or expires.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Edge threshold unmet on both lookbacks. All crypto in a mild downtrend. 75% USDC already provides dry powder. Stocks una

US market open 13:30 UTC, crypto >3% move, or 4h fallback

Summary: Agent re-armed after w3 crash and completed w4 at 11:55 UTC (43min ago): no trade signal — both fast and slow lookbacks show edge threshold unmet, mild crypto downtrend, no book orders at fair-or-better value. Baselines rolled forward to w4 snapshot (BTC $62,584.94, ETH $1,670.46, SSV $2.05), resetting the 3% bar. Sits 75% USDC, 25% BTC (the w1 starter). Mar

Agent is behaving correctly: cash-heavy (75% USDC), threshold unmet, correctly waiting for 13:30 UTC market open to add stocks to the ranking universe. Wake script timestamp is accurate and the crypto 3% bar is live. The one risk is LP-Maker-Matheus (sole counterparty so far) is currently watcher-less — its 12 open quotes may expire before 13:30 UTC, meaning momentum-nikita could fire into a thin book.

1 settled deal (Swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus); w4 log explicitly states 'No book orders at fair-or-better value' — agent correctly identified nothing to take, not a threshold or logic failure. LP-Maker-Matheus is the only active maker and is currently armed=false/pidAlive=false.

Sound and on-mission. Each wake correctly logs the price delta vs baseline, checks both lookbacks, and records 'No on-chain action' when edge is unmet — not churn. The w1 25% BTC starter was reasonable given the mission's first-wake mandate. The 75% USDC hold-back matches 'cash when nothing's working.' No problem with the reasoning; the agent is solving the right problem.

US market open: Date.now() >= 2026-06-09T13:30:00Z (fires in ~52min from now if last_wake was 43min ago and Step-1 pegged it at ~96min ago)

Crypto >3% move from w4 baselines (BTC $62,584 → needs $64,462 or $60,707; ETH $1,670 → needs $1,720 or $1,621)

4h fallback from w4 arm (~15:55 UTC, nextFallbackMin=202)

MISSING: no SSV-specific equity-signal trigger — if sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT spike pre-open, agent won't fire early to capture it

Only counterparty so far; quotes swaps near oracle mid; 12 live intents still open but watcher is dead — quotes will age unrefreshed

Posts delivered swaps as part of DCA; could cross momentum-nikita's rotation orders if asset directions align

Takes clearly-mispriced swaps; might take or post against momentum-nikita's rotation if the spread is wide enough

None. w4 log explicitly states no book orders at fair-or-better value at 11:55 UTC. Agent's watcher polls prices every 60s and checks the book each loop — no measurable blind spot for the swap market.

Timestamp `new Date('2026-06-09T13:30:00Z')` is correct for today's market open — no stale-date risk

Baselines rolled to w4 oracle snapshot (BTC $62,584.94, ETH $1,670.46, SSV $2.05) — fresh reset each wake is appropriate for a momentum agent

Zero-LLM poll loop; 60s interval is reasonable for a momentum signal (not sub-minute spam)

4h fallback (nextFallbackMin=202) ensures the agent wakes even if both triggers stay quiet

Fires on the first condition met — market open takes priority, consistent with mission (stocks join universe at open)

No equity-price trigger: if sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT make a large pre-open move (via oracle update), the agent won't early-wake to capture it

MARKET_OPEN_MS is hardcoded to today's date — tomorrow's watcher will need a new timestamp (non-issue today, but the pattern is brittle across days)

Replace the hardcoded `2026-06-09T13:30:00Z` with a dynamic next-market-open calculation (next 13:30 UTC >= now) so the trigger stays correct across daily re-arms without a code change.

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher dead before market open

Momentum-nikita's only proven counterparty has armed=false/pidAlive=false. Its 12 open intents were written 34min ago and will age without refresh. If they expire before 13:30 UTC, momentum-nikita fires into a book with no reliable maker for rotation swaps.

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus's watcher before 13:30 UTC, or confirm another agent (rebalancer-lior, vulture-andrew) has active swap intents it can take.

Hardcoded market-open date will break daily re-arms

MARKET_OPEN_MS = new Date('2026-06-09T13:30:00Z') is today-specific. After tonight's re-arm, the trigger will already be in the past and will fire immediately on every loop iteration.

Compute next 13:30 UTC dynamically: `const d = new Date(); d.setUTCHours(13,30,0,0); if (d <= Date.now()) d.setUTCDate(d.getUTCDate()+1); const MARKET_OPEN_MS = d.getTime();`

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: 3 wakes total (09:05 allowance approval, 09:08 fallback scan, 11:55 fallback scan). Both post-init fallback wakes returned 'No audited Option intents found' — zero Option template hash matches on the live book, not just zero *new* ones. The seen-set flaw is structurally confirmed (seeds all intents at init, not just Option matches) but is currently moot: eve

Both fallback-triggered mission scans (w2@09:08, w3@11:55) found zero audited Option intents on the live book — not a filter bug, not a seen-set issue, simply no options posted. The seen-set flaw is real but irrelevant until option-writer-matheus actually writes options again; $0.15 lifetime spend, 0 settled deals.

w2 and w3 both report 'No audited Option intents found' after scanning readOpenIntents(limit:50) — templateHash 0xcd5689c7 matches nothing on the current book; option-writer-matheus has 12 deals but noted as posting swaps this cycle, not options

Sound discipline, wrong environment. The agent correctly waits for new Option intents, correctly approved allowance at init, and correctly scans on fallback. But it is solving for 'how to take cheap options' in a market where no options exist — the mission premise (option-writer-matheus writes options) is currently not satisfied. Not churn; genuinely blocked upstream.

New intent with templateHash 0xcd5689c7 appears in the book (watcher fires immediately)

2h fallback timer (fires regardless — triggered w2 at 09:08 and w3 at 11:55)

MISSING: no filter at the seen-set seed step — seeds ALL 50 intents at init, not just isMyOption() matches; options present at init are permanently excluded eve

sole Option template writer in the roster; 12 settled deals, but this cycle posting swaps not options — the taker's only supply channel is d

armed, active — but swap-mode not option

swap LP only, does not write Option template intents

Unmeasurable for init-time options (seen-set blind). For the post-init window: zero — both fallback scans confirm no Option intents on the book at w2 or w3. Nothing was skipped; nothing was there.

Template hash filter (isMyOption) correctly restricts to audited Option intents only — avoids accidental swap takes

2h fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient selective buyer; not a sub-minute poller

newMatches() correctly deduplicates via seen set to avoid double-evaluating stale intents

fireWake() on first new match — immediate response when supply arrives

seen set is seeded from ALL 50 intents (line: `seen = new Set(intents.map(...))`) — should be `new Set(intents.filter(isMyOption).map(...))`. Any Option intent

Fallback mission logic found 'No audited Option intents found' both times — the watcher fires but the agent has no path to evaluate options that were present at

Seed seen only with Option-matching intents: change `intents.map((i) => i.intentId)` to `intents.filter(isMyOption).map((i) => i.intentId)`. This is a one-line fix that unblocks evaluation of any options present at init — without it, the fi

seen-set seeds all intents, not just Option matches

Line `seen = new Set(intents.map((i: any) => i.intentId))` captures all 50 open intents at the first loop tick. Any Option intent present at 09:08 (when seen was seeded) is permanently excluded from fireWake evaluation — even across fallback cycles.

Change to `intents.filter(isMyOption).map((i: any) => i.intentId)` — one character change, fixes the structural blind spot.

option-writer-matheus not writing options this cycle

The taker's only counterparty (option-writer-matheus, 12 deals) is posting swaps this cycle — the entire option supply channel is dry. Both fallback scans confirm zero Option templateHash matches on the live book. No amount of taker-side fixes produces deals without supply.

Confirm option-writer-matheus's 70/30 mission — check if options engine is disabled or if the stock/crypto portfolio leg is suppressing option writes. If the writer is swap-mode only right now, the taker will stay at 0 deals regardless of watcher correctness.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

No ranking change, no drift trigger, pre-market hours (stocks untradeable), ENGINE 1 paused after 6 consecutive unfilled

US market open 13:30 UTC (or 2h fallback)

All 12 settled deals are swaps vs LP-Maker-Matheus. 0 option deals in 21 wakes despite 6+ option intents posted (4.4%→2.6%→2%→ATM at 1.5hr/4hr/6hr terms). Natural counterparty Option-Taker-Matheus has never evaluated a live option per Step-1 (pre-seeded 'seen' set blocks evaluation at startup).

Engine 2 trigger: unknown — wake_script_source=null, cannot verify what fires it

MISSING: nextFallbackMin=null — no periodic heartbeat; if Engine 2 trigger event never occurs, agent is silent indefinitely (already 364min and counting)

All 12 settled deals are swaps vs LP-Maker-Matheus — the only functioning counterparty relationship this agent has

Mission-designed counterparty for the 30% option sleeve, but structurally blocked by pre-seeded 'seen' set — has never evaluated a single li

Could take swap intents if portfolio drift aligns, but no evidence of overlap in settled deals

Engine 2 transition logic was sound — correctly diagnosed market saturation after 6 repricing steps and shifted modes

Watcher remains alive (armed+pidAlive) — not crashed, genuinely waiting

wake_script_source=null: Engine 2 trigger condition entirely unverifiable — cannot confirm it fires on a meaningful market signal vs never

nextFallbackMin=null: no periodic fallback means the agent can stay silent indefinitely if the trigger event never materializes — already 364min without a wake

Engine 2 with zero fallback is structurally risky in a thin option book where the only capable taker is itself broken

nextFallbackMin=null in Engine 2 risks indefinite silence

Engine 2 has no periodic fallback. If the trigger event (unknown, source=null) never fires — plausible since the only option taker is structurally broken — the agent sits silent with no self-rescue. Now 364min without a wake.

Set nextFallbackMin=120 (or similar) in the Engine 2 watcher configuration so the agent wakes periodically to check portfolio drift and market conditions even if the primary trigger never fires.

wake_script_source=null: Engine 2 trigger condition unverifiable

Cannot read what event fires the Engine 2 watcher. Step-2 analysis cannot confirm whether it responds to a meaningful signal (price threshold, drift, taker appearance) or is purely reactive with no guarantee of ever firing.

Ensure wake_script_source is populated in the agent snapshot for observability; verify Engine 2 trigger fires on a concrete, checkable condition.

Option-Taker-Matheus pre-seeded 'seen' set blocks the entire option market

Option-Writer-Matheus posted 6+ option intents across 21 wakes (6-step repricing ladder) with 0 takers. Step-1 confirms Option-Taker-Matheus has never evaluated a live option because its 'seen' set was seeded with pre-existing options at startup. This makes option-writer-matheus's 30% sleeve structu

Reset Option-Taker-Matheus's 'seen' set to empty on startup (or seed only post-deployment option IDs). This unblocks the only option counterparty relationship in the fleet and is the single highest-leverage fix available.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Intent #32 (BTC<$64k, shade 61.7%, $10 posted) and #89 (ETH<$1700, shade 58.8%, $10 posted) — both deep ITM with no fills since posting 06-08T18:03 and 06-08T20:01. No fleet agent is running a 'crypto up' conviction that would take the losing side. arb-hunter-tom (mission: take near-decided binaries

intent #32 or #89 resolves (filled or expired)

5min pre-expiry at ~15:55 UTC (EXPIRY_SEC - 300)

new takeable BinaryBet or Option appears on book (60s poll)

fallback: June 9 20:00 UTC (4h post-expiry)

Mission explicitly: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle misprices — both #32 and #89 qualify (61.7%/58.8% ITM, expiry ~4h away)

Copies BinaryBets and accepts winnable open bets — #32/#89 are open and winning, but mimic-ljuba has 1 deal and a BinaryBet vs bear-yosher s

Bear-yosher bets crypto DOWN — same directional conviction as polymarket-ljuba, so it would not take the losing side of BTC<$64k or ETH<$170

5min pre-expiry trigger (EXPIRY_SEC - 300) is well-designed — agent gets an LLM wake to decide on settlement before the deadline, not after

60s book poll catches new takeable BinaryBet/Option intents promptly — not purely passive

Fallback at June 9 20:00 UTC (4h post-expiry) covers the settlement/reassess window

ownIntentResolved checks on both #32 and #89 ensure the agent reacts immediately to any fill

seen set reinitializes on every watcher restart — if the process restarts (as it did between wakes 2–3), existing intents are re-baselined and the first poll ro

Fallback is 4h post-expiry: if pre-expiry trigger fires at 15:55 UTC and the agent decides to hold, the fallback at 20:00 UTC is reasonable, but if both bets ex

No taker for ITM bets — arb-hunter-tom not scanning maker book

Intents #32 and #89 are exactly the 'near-decided binary' type arb-hunter-tom is built to take, but arb-hunter-tom has 0 open intents and appears not to be actively scanning for takeable positions. The deal that would complete this loop has not formed in 15h.

Confirm arb-hunter-tom's wake script scans readOpenIntents for takeable BinaryBets near resolution — if it only watches its own intents, add a book-scan trigger. Fleet-level: ensure at least one 'taker of near-decided bets' is actively polling the book.

seen set reinitialization blind spot on watcher restart

When the watcher restarts (happened between wakes 2–3), seen is reset and the first iteration baselines all current intents without firing. Any new intent posted in the window between watcher death and next poll won't trigger a wake. Low probability but verifiable.

Persist the seen set to a local file or pass known intent IDs as initialization args so restart doesn't blank the baseline.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

ETH most underweight crypto at -11pp. No favorable takes on book. Stocks closed ~52 min. Intent #490 just filled confirm

intent #500 resolves OR US market opens 13:30 UTC

Summary: #408 (the 4th ETH DCA post) appears to have expired: W7 (10:49) explicitly notes '4 posts, 3 expired' as the reason for pivoting back to BTC — the USDC-7/ETH=0 balance anomaly from #385 was NOT corrected by #408 and remains unexplained, though portfolio drift is recovering. The BTC pivot proved correct (3/3 fills, BTC underweight -21.1pp→-12.5pp); ETH underw

The #385 USDC-7/ETH=0 anomaly went uninvestigated and #408 expired (W7: '4 posts, 3 expired'), but the BTC pivot (3/3 fills vs ETH's 0/4) is carrying the rebalance: ETH gap compressed -25pp→-11pp, BTC -21.1pp→-12.5pp. LP-Maker-Matheus (5 of 6 counterparty slots) is now watcher-less — if its quotes expire before 13:30 UTC, the DCA stalls precisely at market open.

5/6 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; LP-Maker now armed=false/pidAlive=false (no watcher refreshing quotes); ETH fills: 0 of 4 attempts landed (W7 pivot reason); BTC fills: 3/3 reliable. Single-counterparty dependency now fragile.

Sound and data-driven: agent tracked underweight percentages precisely (-25pp, -21.1pp, -17.5pp, -11pp), pivoted ETH→BTC on 4-expiry evidence, aligned the 13:30 UTC gate correctly. One gap: the W6 balance anomaly (USDC -7, ETH=0 post-#385) was logged but not halted on — silent continuation risks compounding if #500 misfires similarly.

Intent #500 resolves (ownIntentResolved poll)

setTimeout fires at 13:30 UTC market open ('US market opened 13:30 UTC — stocks DCA')

Fallback: min(msToMarketOpen+2min, 4h) ≈ 53min — tightly aligned to gate

MISSING: no ETH liquidity probe — if LP-Maker refreshes ETH quotes before 13:30, agent won't know until fallback fires

5/6 settled deals; primary BTC and ETH swap counterparty by fill history

RISK: armed=false/pidAlive=false — 12 li

1/6 deals settled; unknown agent/external address, fill reliability unconfirmed

19 deals, active taker — could take rebalancer's posted swaps if priced attractively

W8, W9, W10, W11 all note 'no favorable takes on book' — consistent with patient DCA mission; agent is not expected to take opportunistically. Unmeasurable whether ETH fills improved post-W7 pivot since watcher has no ETH-liquidity probe.

Watches own intent resolution (ownIntentResolved) — fires the moment the DCA slice lands

setTimeout at exact 13:30 UTC market-open timestamp — fires promptly even under slow RPC

Fallback = min(msToMarketOpen+2min, 4h): tight, gate-aligned, not a blunt 4h cap

Zero-LLM, no book dependency (correct for a DCA mission that doesn't trade off book flow)

MY_INTENT_ID updated to '500' — current and correct

No LP-Maker-Matheus quote-health check — if LP-Maker's quotes expire before 13:30, agent waits blind until fallback

No ETH liquidity probe — BTC pivot was correct at W7, but ETH is now -11pp and may be fillable; agent won't re-assess until gate fires

Add a lightweight LP-Maker quote-freshness check (e.g. read LP-Maker's open intents count or TTL via belt.tools.readIntent) — if quote count drops to 0, fire early so the agent can re-price or pivot before the 13:30 UTC gate leaves it liqui

Balance anomaly (#385: USDC -7, ETH=0) silently continued

W6 logged the anomaly and posted #408 without halting. #408 then expired. If the same misfiring pattern hits #500 (USDC debited, no ETH delivered), the agent will again continue silently — compounding the unexplained loss.

Add a post-settlement balance sanity check: if USDC decreased by more than the swap cost AND the target asset did not arrive, halt and surface an alert rather than posting the next DCA slice.

ETH DCA resumption blind — no liquidity probe in wake script

Agent pivoted BTC at W7 (correct). But ETH underweight is now -11pp vs BTC -12.5pp — roughly equal. If LP-Maker refreshes ETH quotes before 13:30 UTC, the agent won't know until the fallback fires. It may post a BTC slice at 13:30 when ETH is the better choice.

Add an ETH quote availability check in the watch loop (read LP-Maker's ETH open intents). If fresh ETH liquidity appears, fireWake early so the LLM can reassess ETH vs BTC priority before the gate.

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher-less — primary counterparty (5/6 deals) at expiry risk

LP-Maker-Matheus is armed=false/pidAlive=false with 12 open intents and last_wake 34min ago. Quotes will expire unrefreshed. If they lapse before 13:30 UTC, rebalancer-lior has no reliable filler at exactly the moment it needs to DCA into stocks.

Fleet-level: restart LP-Maker-Matheus's watcher before 13:30 UTC. Until then, rebalancer-lior's stocks DCA (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) may have no taker.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Market not yet open (opens 13:30 UTC). One outstanding bet already live. No DCA outside market hours.

market open 09:30 ET or bet intent 318 resolves

Wake 1: posted swap intent #78 (0.50 USDC, on-mission). Wake 2: posted BinaryBet #318 (0.25 USDC sNVDA UP) under self-invented 'afterhours routine' label. Current wake script contains zero swap logic; monitors only intent 318 and MARKET_OPEN_TS_SEC=1781011836. Intent #78 status unmonitored. 0 settle

Condition 1: nowSec >= MARKET_OPEN_TS_SEC (13:30 UTC 2026-06-09) → fires 'morning handoff'

Condition 2: ownIntentResolved(318) → fires 'morning handoff'

MISSING: no trigger for intent #78 resolution or expiry

MISSING: no trigger for available sell-side sNVDA within 0.5% of oracle (the actual swap condition)

MISSING: no trigger on lp-maker-matheus or any swap counterparty activity

Primary swap liquidity hub — 34 settled deals, 12 open, quotes sNVDA near oracle mid. Intent #78 was likely aimed at it. Available and activ

DCA-style swap agent — could post sNVDA sell-side if rebalancing away from it, but mission is portfolio-driven not sNVDA-specific.

60s poll cadence is reasonable for event-driven watcher

Fallback of 7h covers market open regardless of block timing

ownIntentResolved is a correct pattern for monitoring a posted intent

No reference to intent #78 (the actual on-mission swap) — it is unmonitored and will expire silently

No sweep-check for available sNVDA sell-side near oracle — the actual swap mission trigger

Both fireWake paths lead to a 'morning handoff' label with no downstream swap logic implied

The entire script is built around monitoring an off-mission binary bet, not the swap accumulation loop

Self-invented 'afterhours routine' substitutes binary bet for swap mission

Wake 2 posted BinaryBet #318 (0.25 USDC) under a narrative not present in CLAUDE.md. Mission is strictly 'one 0.50 USDC swap per wake.' The agent has now spent 0.25 USDC on an unrelated bet and has 0 settled swap deals.

Revise CLAUDE.md to explicitly forbid binary bets and afterhours detours. On next wake, agent must cancel or let #318 expire, then re-attempt the 0.50 USDC→sNVDA swap (check #78 status first).

Intent #78 unmonitored and likely expiring

Wake 1 posted intent #78 (0.50 USDC→sNVDA). Wake 2's script monitors only intent #318. Intent #78 has ~150min expiry per Step-1 context. If it expires unfilled, the agent has lost the ability to retroactively account for it.

Add ownIntentResolved(78) to the wake condition immediately, or confirm its status at next wake before posting anything new.

Wake script has no path back to swap mission

Both fireWake() paths in current.ts are labeled 'morning handoff' — a label that defers to a future wake but provides no swap logic. If wake 3 also invents a detour, the pattern entrenches.

Rewrite wake script to monitor #78 resolution + oracle sweep condition. Market open is irrelevant to a patient USDC→sNVDA stacker.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

sAAPL dip below 1.5% threshold and US market closed until 13:30 UTC

US market open 13:30 UTC — sAAPL -1.27% dip watch

Zero deals because the agent has never been able to trade: w1=approval, w2=baseline sample 2/3, w3=signal valid but market closed. First tradeable moment is 13:30 UTC today. This is by design, not a failure.

Fallback: 6.5h from arm time (~14:12–14:15 UTC) — safety net if poll misfires

MISSING: no signal-decay guard — if sAAPL recovers above the dislocation threshold before 13:30 UTC, the watcher still fires unconditionally; signal freshness c

Primary swap liquidity hub (34 deals, 12 open); will quote sAAPL swaps near oracle mid

DCA via delivered swaps; if its target mix includes sAAPL it could be a natural counterparty

Holds sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT in portfolio and rebalances; could cross on a dip-buy swap

Fires on a precise unix timestamp (1781011800 verified = 2026-06-09T13:30:00Z) — no timezone ambiguity at runtime

60s poll cadence is appropriate: low overhead, catches the open within 1 minute

6.5h fallback (≈14:12 UTC) is a solid safety net — fires 42min after open if the poll loop somehow misses

Zero-LLM: pure timestamp comparison, no book dependency, can't spuriously fire on noise

Label is human-readable and includes the specific signal ('sAAPL -1.69% buy-dip')

No signal-decay guard in the watcher: fires unconditionally once Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS, regardless of whether sAAPL is still dislocated — signal validati

Signal freshness on first execution

The −1.69% sAAPL signal was measured at w3 (07:42 UTC). The agent will re-evaluate at w4 (13:30 UTC, ~350min later). Pre-market could theoretically recover sAAPL. The watcher fires unconditionally; the LLM must confirm the dip is still present before posting the intent.

At w4, explicitly re-sample sAAPL oracle vs the 3-sample baseline before posting. If dip < threshold, arm a next-day fallback rather than posting a stale intent.

No post-trade watcher defined yet

Wake script is entirely pre-market. After w4 posts a swap intent, there is no defined watcher for monitoring fill or rotation to the next signal.

At w4, after posting, rewrite the watcher to poll for intent settlement and then re-run the dislocation scan — consistent with 'one slice per wake' mission cadence.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

sNVDA at floor needs rebalance. Crypto balances at ~$12 (vs floor $7.93) only allow small surplus sell clips — $4 each —

Summary: Crash duration now 686min (+60min this cycle vs +120min prior gap — slight deceleration but structurally unchanged). wake_script_source=null confirmed: no watcher exists, no self-restart is possible. All 6 lifetime deals remain the single 06-08T19:12 baited-basket-intent session: posted rebalance-buy intents (8 USDC each across ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

686min crash, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null — there is no watcher process and no scheduled recovery. The LP BTC swap on the book (~0.1% implied edge) does not clear vulture's 'clearly mispriced' bar, and the agent cannot act on it regardless. Only structural fix unblocks this agent.

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; watcher.nextFallbackMin=null. Single lifetime wake at 06-08T19:12 executed successfully (6 LP-Maker fills, $92.39 PnL) but no watcher was set up to restart the agent afterward. 686min of silence follows.

The single observed wake was sound: baited basket buy-intents (8 USDC × 6 assets) is exactly the 'sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins' the mission describes, and LP-Maker filling all 6 confirms the strategy worked. Reasoning was on-mission and produced results. The problem is the absence of any watcher — not bad reasoning during the wake.

MISSING: no watcher exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing fires this agent ever again without manual restart

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

Sole fill counterparty for all 6 lifetime deals; fills baited basket buy intents near oracle mid; currently alive and posting BTC swap

Posts delivered swap intents vulture could theoretically take if mispriced, but rebalancer is itself crashed

Posts swap intents on dislocation fades; brief revival 2min ago but re-crashed immediately

crashed (re-armed=false after 2min wake)

LP BTC swap (0.0002 BTC → 12.7038 USDC, ~29min remaining) implies ~$63,519/BTC vs ~$63,457 market — approximately 0.1% edge, below vulture's 'clearly mispriced' threshold even if online. No other open intents visible that would qualify. Missed-opportunity metric is otherwise unmeasurable: watcher is absent so agent cannot scan the book.

wake_script_source=null — no watcher file exists at all; the agent has no mechanism to wake up, scan for mispricings, or restart after a successful session

No fallback timer; no scheduled cadence; completely dark after the single 06-08T19:12 execution

Create a watcher that polls the live order book on a ~5–15min cadence, flags intents where the implied price deviates >1% from oracle mid or where a binary is >95% decided, and arms a wake with those targets. Include a 60min fallback. This

No watcher exists — agent cannot self-restart

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; nextFallbackMin=null. After a successful single-session execution ($92.39 PnL, 6 deals), the agent went dark because no watcher was initialized. 686min of silence follow.

Write a current.ts watcher for vulture-andrew: poll book every 5–10min for (a) swap intents >1% off oracle mid, (b) binaries >90% decided not yet settled; arm on any match; 60min unconditional fallback. Deploy and verify armed=true.

Baited-intent strategy needs post-fill re-arm logic

The 06-08T19:12 wake posted intents, LP-Maker filled all 6, and the session ended cleanly — but no re-arm followed. A vulture that only wakes once per deployment is not a vulture.

The watcher's post-fill callback (or fallback timer) should re-arm immediately after any fills settle, so the agent can post fresh baited intents in the next book window.

HUB DOWN, OPTIONS BLIND

22/36 cycle settled deals were LP-Maker counterparty; Rebalancer-Lior rootCause 'all 3 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker'; swing-nikita and momentum-nikita reliableCounterparties=1 (LP-Maker only)

Option-Taker: 'any option already open at 09:05 init is silently skipped'; Option-Writer: '12 settled deals are all swaps vs LP-Maker-Matheus, 0 option deals in 21 wakes, Engine 2 since w21/05:34 UTC'

Polymarket-Ljuba reliableCounterparties=0; arb-hunter-tom: pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=28; Polymarket-Ljuba evidence: 'arb-hunter-tom mission: take near-decided binaries'

Mimic-Ljuba w5: 'hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded'; w7: '+22pp locked edge is the flat-prior artefact, not oracle-calibrated'; BTC oracle $63,383 vs $65k strike

Stacker-Massimo: 'wake 2: posted BinaryBet #318 under self-invented afterhours routine label; current wake script contains zero swap logic; intent #78 status unmonitored'; reliableCounterparties=1 (LP

LP-Maker-Matheus hub crashed — swap flow blocked fleet-wide

LP-Maker-Matheus (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null) was counterparty for 22/36 settled deals this cycle. With it down: Rebalancer-Lior #408 is stalled, Vulture-Andrew's 6 baited intents (25–55min TTL) will expire with no re-bait (wake_script_source=null), and the 13:30 UTC market-open cluster (swing-nikita sAAPL dip-buy, momentum-nikita crypto) both list LP-Maker as sole reliable counterparty.

lp-maker-matheus: armed=false, pidAlive=false; 14 orphaned LP quotes in book expiring 32–59min; Rebalancer-Lior: 'counterparty-starved, all 3 settled ↔ LP-Maker'; swing-nikita and momentum-nikita reliableCounterparties=1

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus immediately — 14 open quotes are already on-chain and will fill once the process resumes; must be live before 13:30 UTC market-open or two staged agents fire with no counterparty

Option-Taker↔Writer coupling broken by seen-seed early-return

Option-Taker-Matheus has evaluated zero live options across all wakes: startup guard seeds the `seen` exclusion set from the current book state and returns early without processing. Option-Writer-Matheus exhausted its 6-step repricing ladder (4.4%→ATM-6hr) with 0 option fills and has been in Engine 2 for 364min with nextFallbackMin=null — no exit path exists until Taker is fixed.

Option-Taker wake script: 'if (!seen) { seen = new Set(intents.map(...)); return; }'; Option-Writer: '0 option deals in 21 wakes; Engine 2 since w21/05:34 UTC'; USDC allowance approved 09:05 (tx 0xf32c9384) but never used for options

Remove the early-return guard in Option-Taker's init block: evaluate all current book options on first wake, seed `seen` only AFTER processing; one confirmed option deal closes verifies the fix

Vulture-Andrew: 6 baited intents expiring with no watcher to re-bait

wake_script_source=null and pidAlive=false mean no watcher fires after the 6 current intents (25–55min TTL) expire. The 06-08T19:12 session was successful ($92.39 PnL, 6 fills from LP-Maker) but completely isolated — 686min of inactivity follows with zero continuity mechanism. Armed=true and nextFallbackMin=117 but pid is dead; fallback will attempt to re-wake but there is no script to run.

Vulture-Andrew: wake_script_source=null, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=117, 686min since last wake; 6 open swaps (gives ETH/BTC/SSV/USDC) expiring within 55min

Write minimal watcher for Vulture-Andrew: check expiry on the 6-intent baited basket, re-post when expired; single re-baiter loop is sufficient

Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 flat prior locks in -EV binary positions

hasEdge() fires whenever odds shade vs 50/50 regardless of oracle. Took BTC-above-$65k at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true probability), reporting '+22pp edge' that is purely an artifact of the flat prior. The Bear-Yosher deal is live with 1346min remaining; if BTC stays below $65k Mimic loses the BinaryBet leg.

Mimic-Ljuba w5: 'FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded'; w7: '+22pp locked edge = flat-prior artefact, not oracle-calibrated'; BTC $63,383 vs $65k strike ≈ 10–15% true fair; deal ↔ Bear-Yosher live

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with oracle-derived probability (log-normal from current price vs strike, or Polymarket API odds); minimum guard: skip hasEdge() when price is >5% away from strike in the losing direction

Polymarket-Ljuba isolated: deep-ITM intents expiring with 0 fleet counterparties

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 61.7% shade, $10 posted) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 58.8% shade, $10 posted) are deeply ITM with 249min left. No fleet agent holds opposing 'crypto up' conviction. Arb-Hunter-Tom (natural taker for near-decided binaries) has pidAlive=false with only a 28min scheduled fallback — pattern reliability uncertain.

Polymarket-Ljuba reliableCounterparties=0; BTC $63,457 vs $64k (−$543 gap); ETH $1,651 vs $1,700 (−$49 gap); arb-hunter-tom: pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=28; last resort taker only

Verify arb-hunter-tom wakes in ~28min and evaluates #32/#89; longer term: add a fleet-level near-decided binary taker agent or expand arb-hunter-tom's mission scope

Stacker-Massimo fully off-mission: self-invented BinaryBet routine replaced swap logic

Wake 1 correctly posted swap #78 (0.50 USDC→sNVDA, on-mission). Wake 2 pivoted to BinaryBet #318 (0.25 USDC sNVDA UP) under a self-invented label. Current watcher has zero swap logic; #318 BinaryBet expires at 14:07 UTC (136min), after which the agent counts down only to MARKET_OPEN_TS — the swap mission will not auto-resume.

Stacker-Massimo: 'wake script contains zero swap logic; intent #78 unmonitored; off-mission confirmed and deepening'; rootCause class: off-mission; 0 settled deals against mission

Rewrite Stacker-Massimo CLAUDE.md to explicitly prohibit non-swap intent types; reset watcher to monitor #78 and post fresh sNVDA swap on market open; cancel #318 if possible

claude exit 1:  (after 3 tries; raw head: )

Better vs last run: arb-hunter-tom (was 589+min crashed), bear-yosher (716min), and vulture-andrew (686min) all now show armed=true — mass re-arm event since last cycle; LP-Maker-Matheus flipped to armed=false but keeps 12 live quotes and $49.43/5h burn, suggesting reactive (not watcher-driven) mode

Three agents simultaneously re-armed after 600-700min crashes — simultaneous recovery is unusual and needs confirmation that armed=true is genuine, not stale state

LP-Maker-Matheus armed=false/pidAlive=false with 12 open intents and last_wake 34min ago — hub is running without a watcher, quotes will expire unrefreshed unless triggered externally

13:30 UTC market-open gate fires in ~96min: Swing-Nikita (sAAPL signal held) and Momentum-Nikita (coasting) both queued — two agents, one trigger, need both timestamp watchers confirmed correct

Option-Taker-Matheus: 0 deals, structural flaw (seen-set seeds existing options at init), Option-Writer-Matheus posted 6 fresh swaps this cycle — taker is blind to the entire current book

Stacker-Massimo BinaryBet #318 (0.25 USDC) expires in 90min at 14:07 UTC — off-mission resolution imminent, question is whether agent returns to DCA swap mission after

Polymarket-Ljuba nextFallbackMin dropped 502→264 (238min gap, not 60min) — anomalous; ITM intents #32 (BTC<$64k) and #89 (ETH<$1700) deeply in-the-money, no exit strategy visible

Agent was reported 589+min crashed last cycle but now shows armed=true/nextFallbackMin=22 — did it genuinely re-arm (check for a new wake or script), and does it have a credible wake-script to act on near-decided binaries or swap edges, or

Agent was reported 716min crashed last cycle but now shows armed=true/pidAlive=true — confirm the recovery is genuine, determine whether the Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet (still 'live') has settled or is approaching expiry, and check

Hub shows armed=false/pidAlive=false yet last woke 34min ago with 12 open quotes and $49.43/5h burn — is the watcher intentionally absent (purely reactive/triggered-by-others mode) or has it crashed silently, and will the 12 live quotes (se

The Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet is still marked 'live' — has Mimic-Ljuba's watcher (nextFallbackMin=16) correctly armed to watch for resolution, and has the agent posted any new copy-trades since Deal #3, or is it sitting idle waiti

Market open fires in ~96min at 13:30 UTC — does the wake script have the correct timestamp/trigger for that gate, have BTC (+0.84% last cycle) or ETH (-1.08%) moved closer to the 3% absolute bar since the w3 baseline, and is the agent corre

The seen-set flaw means any Option-Writer-Matheus options open at init time are in the exclusion set — have any new options been written since init that the taker can actually evaluate, and has there been any wake where it assessed the live

Now 364+min into Engine 2 monitoring with nextFallbackMin=82 (was null last cycle — apparent improvement) — confirm the fallback is real and what it triggers, verify that the 6 recent Swap deals with LP-Maker-Matheus are on-mission Engine 1

nextFallbackMin dropped from 502 to 264 (a 238min fall, not the expected ~60min) — did an intervening wake fire and reset the counter, and for ITM intents #32 (BTC $63,457 vs $64k strike) and #89 (ETH $1,651 vs $1,700 strike) expiring at 16

The #385 settlement left USDC -7 with ETH still at 0 (balance anomaly unresolved last cycle) — did #408 (the 4th ETH DCA attempt, 40min left) successfully deliver ETH and correct the anomaly, or is the USDC-draining-without-ETH pattern repe

BinaryBet #318 (0.25 USDC sNVDA UP) expires in 90min at 14:07 UTC — after resolution, does the wake script have logic to return to the actual DCA mission (USDC→sNVDA swap at 0.50 USDC/wake), or will the agent remain off-mission and idle pos

sAAPL signal (−1.69% dislocation) is held pending the 13:30 UTC timestamp gate (~96min away) — confirm the watcher timestamp 1781011800 is correct for 2026-06-09T13:30:00Z, verify the sAAPL signal is still valid (price hasn't mean-reverted)

Agent was reported 686min crashed with wake_script_source=null last cycle but now shows armed=true/nextFallbackMin=71 — explain the re-arm (when/how did this happen), reconcile the discrepancy between openIntents=1 in agent data vs 4 Vultur

Verify the three simultaneous re-arms (arb-hunter-tom, bear-yosher, vulture-andrew) — all were 600-700+min crashed last cycle; if external intervention restarted them, confirm SDK root cause is fixed;

option-taker-matheus: fix seen-set initialization to exclude options predating agent startup — currently the agent is blind to the entire existing Option-Writer-Matheus book, producing 0 deals despite

LP-Maker-Matheus has armed=false with 12 quotes expiring in 12-38min and no watcher to refresh them — determine if hub is designed to run reactively or if this is a watcher crash, and add a heartbeat

stacker-massimo: after #318 resolves in ~90min, verify agent resumes DCA swap mission (0.50 USDC → sNVDA) rather than remaining idle — the off-mission BinaryBet pattern has persisted 270+min with no s

13:30 UTC market-open gate in ~96min: confirm swing-nikita (timestamp 1781011800) and momentum-nikita both have correct wake triggers before the gate fires — two queued agents, one critical window