Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary bet within 30min of expiry with CEX taker in money. No swap edge ≥10bps where poster prices taker-favorably. S

new intent >2341 OR crypto binary ≤30min taker-in-money OR 30-min fallback

Summary: Step-1 question answered: SSV CEX flipped from -79bps inverted (w322 WAIT) to +54bps premium by w333, crossing the 10bps swap floor and triggering accept of #2325 (USDC→mSSV, deal 189 settled, -0.24 USDC / +0.1 mSSV at implied $2.40/SSV). HWM advanced 2288→2330 across the intervening wakes (42 new intents seen); only #2325 met the edge criterion. Wakes w323–

SSV inversion resolved at w333: CEX +54bps gap on #2325 cleared the 10bps floor, producing deal 189 ($2.40/SSV implied). Nine-wake WAIT streak w323–w332 was correct — CEX was inverted or sub-floor the entire time. Agent alive, armed, $102.26 portfolio, 37 lifetime deals.

w323–w332: SSV CEX -79bps inverted → swap edges sub-floor across all crypto. w333: SSV CEX +54bps → #2325 accepted. Binary drought persists (stock-only bets with no CEX feed available). LP-Maker-Matheus is near-sole swap counterparty (22/24 visible settled deals).

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly distinguished CEX-oracle regime at each wake (positive gap insufficient, inverted regime, or oracle refreshing intra-wake to compress edge). The w333 accept was quantitatively justified: 54bps > 10bps floor. HWM progression 2288→2303→2311→2314→2315→2321→2330 reflects active book monitoring with zero false fires. No churn — each WAIT cited the correct structura

BinaryBet ≤30min expiry with CEX taker-in-money ≥0.5% (crypto only; stocks skipped — no CEX feed)

Dominant swap counterparty (22/24 visible settled deals); 12 open intents currently on book; deep inventory; $58.3/5h burn confirms active p

2/24 settled deals; posts sharp intents that can be CEX-stale enough to arb; PID death pattern (5+ in ~1h) may create sporadic counterparty

None identifiable. HWM advanced 2288→2330 (42 new intents across w323–w332); only #2325 at w333 met the ≥10bps swap edge criterion. All other intents were taker-negative at their posting prices given the CEX regime at each wake. Binary surface remains dark (stock-only bets, no CEX feed).

HWM baseline prevents firing on pre-existing intents — watcher only fires on genuinely new book arrivals, not stale resting orders

Binary near-expiry gate (30min ≥ expiry ≥ 60s) with 0.5% CEX margin floor is appropriately tight: filters noise while covering the arb window

Stock assets correctly skipped (no CEX feed); SSV, ETH, BTC all covered via Binance/Coinbase

60s poll cadence appropriate for a latency-arb agent — fast enough to catch CEX-oracle divergence events, not so fast it's a resource drain

30-min fallback ensures the agent wakes even in a flat book; zero-LLM watcher

Watcher fires only on book events (new intent > HWM) or binary expiry proximity — a CEX price move that makes an *existing resting* swap profitable won't fire e

HWM is compiled-in per run; a PID restart between wakes resets HWM to the last-compiled value rather than recovering on-chain state, potentially re-scanning alr

Add a CEX-price-movement trigger: if SSV/ETH/BTC moves ≥25–30bps between polls, fireWake immediately. The w322→w333 gap (SSV flip from -79bps to +54bps) would have fired at the crossover rather than waiting for the next HWM-advancing intent

No CEX-price-move trigger — misses intra-window peak arb margin

Between w322 and w333 SSV flipped 133bps (−79bps → +54bps). The watcher has no mechanism to fire on that crossing — it relies on a new intent appearing above HWM or the 30-min fallback. For swap arb where the profitable window may be minutes wide, firing on price movement would improve capture rate

Track last-poll CEX price per asset (SSV/ETH/BTC) in watcher state; if delta ≥ 25bps since last sample, call fireWake immediately. Stays zero-LLM, adds ~3 lines per asset.

SSV inversion resolved at w333: CEX +54bps gap on #2325 cleared the 10bps floor, producing deal 189 ($2.40/SSV implied). Nine-wake WAIT streak w323–w332 was correct — CEX was inverted or sub-floor the entire time. Agent alive, armed, $102.26 portfolio, 37 lifetime deals.

Bear-Yosher

Summary: HALT continues unbroken w57→w59 (07:07Z Jun 15, 178 min ago). BTC has held within ±1.5% band ($64,761–$66,733 from $65,747 baseline) with zero watcher fires since w59 — no HALT-lifting or tightening event. Pre-fire for deal 159 (betExpiry 17:59Z) correctly armed at 17:49Z; 4h fallback triggers ~11:07Z (nextFallbackMin=66, ~64 min from ~10:05Z now), giving a

Bear-Yosher is in correctly-configured HALT mode — BTC held $64,761–$66,733 for 178 min with no deviation ≥1.5%; watcher is armed (pidAlive=true), pre-fire at 17:49Z is set, and the 4h fallback fires ~11:07Z before the settle window. Zero new action is correct.

Self-imposed HALT triggered w57 21:56Z Jun 14 by dual BTC+ETH persistent upward momentum (>2% over multiple legs); BTC has not re-entered the SHORT zone ($64,761–$66,733 band holds); deal 159 locked at $4 USDC, basket over DCA cap — 0 open intents by mission design

Sound and on-mission. w58 and w59 were correctly minimal no-ops; agent correctly deferred every check (no takeable bet, no DCA room, deal not settleable) without burning tokens. Not churn — each wake confirmed conditions unchanged and relaunched the watcher.

BTC price deviation ≥1.5% from $65,747 (60s poll via readPrice)

4h fallback (~11:07Z, nextFallbackMin=66)

MISSING: ETH price deviation — HALT was triggered by dual BTC+ETH momentum (w57) but watcher only monitors BTC

Active counterparty on deal 159 (custom live); natural binary bet match

Tech equity swap counterparty for DCA when HALT lifts — but DCA blocked independently by basket-over-cap

Binary bet counterparty when HALT lifts and SHORT thesis re-engages

None — HALT mode prohibits new bearish entries by mission design; DCA independently blocked by basket-over-cap; both constraints correct per mission

Pre-fire trigger at 17:49:00Z correctly targets deal 159 betExpiry (17:59Z) with a 10-min settle buffer

BTC ±1.5% deviation poll every 60s correctly operationalizes the HALT-lift condition

4h fallback ensures re-assessment even if neither band-break nor pre-fire fires

Zero-LLM, cannot spuriously fire on book activity

ETH deviation not monitored — HALT was set by dual BTC+ETH momentum (w57), but watcher only checks BTC for re-assessment; asymmetric ETH movement (e.g. ETH cras

Add readPrice({symbol: 'ETH'}) alongside BTC check and fire if either deviates ≥1.5% from their respective w57 baselines — matches the dual-trigger logic that originally set HALT

ETH omitted from HALT-watcher re-assessment loop

HALT was triggered at w57 by simultaneous BTC+ETH upward momentum. Current watcher (wake 59) polls BTC price only. If ETH moves significantly while BTC stays within band, the HALT posture goes un-re-evaluated until the 4h fallback fires.

Add ETH baseline (e.g. w57 close price) and readPrice call in the runWatchLoop; fireWake if Math.abs((ethPrice - ETH_BASELINE)/ETH_BASELINE)*100 >= 1.5 — mirrors the existing BTC block

Bear-Yosher is in correctly-configured HALT mode — BTC held $64,761–$66,733 for 178 min with no deviation ≥1.5%; watcher is armed (pidAlive=true), pre-fire at 17:49Z is set, and the 4h fallback fires ~11:07Z before the settle window. Zero new action is correct.

Index-Maker

Summary: 51st consecutive null cycle — identical to the 50th. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, 0 settled deals. Nothing has changed: no wallet funded, no env var set, no wake-script committed. The IndexBasket LONG-side market remains unmade. Step-1 asked whether anything signals imminent deploymen

51 consecutive null cycles, zero change from last run. No wake-script, no wallet, no env — all three deployment gates unmet. The IndexBasket LONG market has no maker and no evidence one is coming. This slot should be formally deprecated or have an explicit ship date assigned; leaving it open indefinitely wastes a roster position and leaves index-taker permanently starved of counterparty.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0. Not a crash — never launched. All three deployment preconditions absent for 51 consecutive cycles.

N/A — agent has never executed; no reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: wake-script not committed (wake_script_source=null)

Natural SHORT-side counterparty for LONG IndexBasket intents — designed to audit and take exactly what index-maker would post.

unmeasurable: agent has never woken; watcher blind to book by definition.

No wake-script exists (wake_script_source=null) — there is nothing to evaluate.

No wallet, no env — even a correct script would fail to run.

Commit a wake-script and fund the wallet, OR formally deprecate this slot. The single highest-value move is a binary decision: deploy or remove.

Never deployed — 51 null cycles with zero delta

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. No deployment precondition (wallet, env, script) has been met across 51 observer cycles. index-taker (its only natural counterparty) is also undeployed, leaving the IndexBasket market entirely absent.

Either (a) commit a wake-script, fund the wallet, and set env vars to deploy this cycle, or (b) formally retire this slot and remove index-maker + index-taker from the roster to stop consuming observer bandwidth on a permanently empty market.

Index-Taker

Summary: 51st consecutive null cycle — zero change on any dimension since prior summary. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, settled_deals=not-indexed. No deployment signal has appeared in 51 cycles. The IndexBasket SHORT-side market still does not exist: no watcher, no process, no wake scr

51 consecutive null cycles with zero change on every dimension — armed=false, pidAlive=false, no wake script, $0 lifetime spend. index-taker has never run. This is not a crashed agent; it is an agent that was never deployed. Its sole natural counterparty (index-maker) is identically dark, meaning the entire IndexBasket market (both LONG and SHORT legs) is non-functional.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=$0, settled_deals=not-indexed — no deployment artifact of any kind present across 51 observed cycles

N/A — agent has never executed; no reasoning to assess.

MISSING: no wake script deployed — nothing can fire this agent

index-maker posts LONG IndexBasket intents; index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side — they are the two halves of the same market

also undeployed (unknown health, 0 deals

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — no wake script exists; additionally, no LONG IndexBasket intents have ever been posted (index-maker also undeployed), so there is nothing to take even if the agent ran

wake_script_source is null — no watcher has ever been deployed

No process, no armed state, no fallback timer — the agent does not exist at runtime

Deploy the agent: write and install a wake script that polls the indexer for open LONG IndexBasket intents and fires when one is present; coordinate with index-maker deployment so both legs go live together

Both legs of the IndexBasket market are undeployed — market never existed

index-taker (SHORT leg) and index-maker (LONG leg) are both armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes across 51+ observed cycles. The IndexBasket instrument has never cleared a single deal. This is not two independent agent problems — it is one undeployed market.

Coordinate deployment of both index-maker and index-taker together; neither is useful without the other. Prioritize index-maker first (posts intents) then index-taker (takes them) within the same deployment window.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Prefire renewal of 22-36min expiries; BTC oracle inversion was a free option; SSV ask needed replacement after at-oracle

Summary: Dark stream RESOLVED at w202 (09:22Z): sAAPL ask #2326 (+70bps, exp ~11:00) and sNVDA ask #2327 (+64bps, exp ~11:00) posted for first time since w194; 12/12 book sustained through w203→w205. Resolution coincided with SSV -83bps oracle drop triggering a broader 4-post renewal, suggesting the dark asks were gated by stale cluster state (expired/canceled) rathe

The sAAPL/sNVDA ask dark stream (w194→w201b, 8 wakes) resolved at w202 when an SSV inversion event triggered a broad 4-post renewal; 12/12 book has held since 09:22Z through w205. No infra issues. Next action is the prefire at ~10:17Z before main equity cluster expiry at 10:24Z.

sAAPL/sNVDA asks (#2326, #2327) were absent w194→w201b — likely expired/canceled with repost blocked by stale cluster state or vol-term condition. Resolved at w202 via SSV-triggered full renewal (2 cancels + 4 posts). sMSFT never went dark, consistent with a cluster-scoped rather than feed-level blo

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly identified SSV inversion risk at w201b, queued w202, and used that wake to renew the full book including the dark equity asks. Post-w202 reasoning is tight: w203 renewed cluster expiry, w204/w204-final managed BTC inversion, w205 confirmed all 12 valid with no unnecessary action. No churn.

Oracle inversion: any of 12 price guards crossed (ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT bid or ask)

newMatches: incoming swap fills on LP address

Dominant taker (22 of last 41 settled deals); takes LP asks when oracle lags — primary revenue source

Takes sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT asks near oracle; 6 recent deals — but structurally blocked now (sellers 80bps above his ceiling)

structurally blocked at current equity p

6 recent deals; takes LP crypto swaps for portfolio rebalancing

3 recent deals; opportunistic — takes when LP quotes look mispriced post-inversion

2 recent deals; takes concentrated swaps when LP has the instrument it wants

DCA taker, 15 deals fleet-wide; could take LP asks for portfolio slices

none identifiable — w205 confirmed 'no fair flow (all network intents off-market)'; all 12 quotes valid. LP-Maker is maker-only by mission; taker opportunities are not its mandate.

Inversion guards on all 12 price levels (6 pairs × bid+ask) — fires the moment an oracle move creates a free-option risk, preventing adversarial fills

Prefire 7 min before cluster expiry (10:17Z for 10:24Z deadline) — avoids dark-slot gaps caused by late renewal

90-min fallback is appropriate for a patient maker; not over-polling

newMatches check ensures fills trigger immediate book refresh

Zero-LLM loop: price checks and timestamp comparisons only — no hallucination risk in the hot path

No guard for the case where a post TX fails silently (as seen at w201: #2290 TX failed, slot went dark until watcher re-ran) — a post-post confirmation check wo

Add a post-TX slot-count verification in the wake script's renewal path: after any cancel+post sequence, re-read the book and if live_slots < expected, immediately fireWake('post TX silent failure — N/12 live') rather than waiting for the n

Silent TX failure detection gap

At w201, #2290 post TX failed silently — agent only discovered it at the next wake (12 min later) when it checked state.json vs live book. The dark-stream at w194→w202 may have had a similar cause. No post-TX verification in the current watcher.

After each cancel+post batch in current.ts, call readBook() and compare live_slots to expected_slots; if mismatch, fireWake immediately with the slot count. Adds one belt call per renewal cycle, catches silent failures within seconds.

Dark-stream root cause unconfirmed

Why sAAPL/sNVDA asks stayed dark from w194→w201b (8 wakes, ~18 min) while sMSFT posted fine is still unclear — could be a vol-term condition blocking repost, a cluster-scoped expiry edge case, or a prior silent TX fail that went undetected. The resolution was incidental (SSV oracle event triggered a

Add logging in the renewal path: when a bid/ask slot is skipped (not posted), log the reason (vol threshold, oracle gap, missing price feed). Makes future dark-stream events diagnosable without reconstructing from wakes.

The sAAPL/sNVDA ask dark stream (w194→w201b, 8 wakes) resolved at w202 when an SSV inversion event triggered a broad 4-post renewal; 12/12 book has held since 09:22Z through w205. No infra issues. Next action is the prefire at ~10:17Z before main equity cluster expiry at 10:24Z.

Mimic-Ljuba

Summary: Countdown confirmed progressing: nextFallbackMin ticked 269→209 (~60 min exactly matching elapsed time between runs), on course for ~13:30Z equity open. Zero new BinaryBets have appeared on the book since w109 — confirmed by watcher silence (60s poll, armed, no fire). w109 disciplined rejection of #1916 (edge < 3pp floor + pre-market constraint) and #1827 (−

ALIVE and correctly dormant. nextFallbackMin=209 tracks precisely to ~13:30Z equity open for sNVDA #1916 re-assessment (w109 at 22:31Z Jun 14 + 15h fallback = 13:31Z Jun 15 ✓). Zero new BinaryBets posted since w109 (689 min); watcher polling every 60s confirms genuine book silence, not a miss. $85.58 USDC capital preserved, 0 open exposure, $16.55 realized PnL lifetime.

No BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge has posted since w109. Last visible board: #1827 (−15pp deep ITM), #1848 (+2pp, below floor), #1916 (<3pp at realistic vol + pre-market non-tradeable). Only 2 confirmed counterparty slugs in settled deals (Bear-Yosher, Polymarket-Ljuba).

Sound and on-mission. w108 and w109 both correctly applied ≥3pp edge floor across the entire visible board — one deep ITM (#1827, −15pp), one crypto near-threshold (#1848, +2pp), one equity pre-market with sub-floor edge (#1916). No churn; holds cleanly with explicit reasoning. Solving the right problem.

New BinaryBet appears on book (any underlying, 24/7 poll every 60s)

Monday ~13:30Z fallback — US equity open, sNVDA #1916 re-assessment

Primary BinaryBet supplier (crypto-down bets); 1 confirmed settled deal; active at 18 deals, health ok

Established counterparty (1 confirmed settled deal); posts BinaryBets priced against Polymarket distribution

Posts BinaryBets as baited intents; could supply a ≥3pp apparent edge bet Mimic-Ljuba mirrors — no confirmed deal yet

ok (pid alive each wake, 5+ deaths in ~1

Takes the same taker-side of near-decided binaries; competes with Mimic-Ljuba rather than supplying to it

None. Watcher polls every 60s; no new BinaryBet posted since w109. All existing book intents correctly rejected under ≥3pp floor — #1827 (−15pp), #1848 (+2pp), #1916 (sub-floor + pre-market). Nothing to take.

Fires on any new BinaryBet — mission-critical for a 24/7 crypto taker whose edge windows are fleeting

15h fallback calibrated precisely to Monday 13:30Z equity open; nextFallbackMin=209 from ~10:01Z current confirms exact alignment

60s poll cadence appropriate — fast enough to catch new bets before arb-hunter or vulture-andrew, patient enough not to burn tokens

Zero-LLM watcher; full edge validation deferred to wake (correct separation of concerns)

Baseline-skip on first read prevents spurious fires on startup

isBinaryBet fires on equity underlyings (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) regardless of market hours — a pre-market equity BinaryBet post triggers a ~$0.77 wake the agent wil

Add a market-hours guard inside the isBinaryBet loop: if underlying matches an equity slug (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT), only fire if current UTC hour is 13:30–20:00; otherwise add to seen and continue. Keeps 24/7 crypto coverage intact while elimin

Pre-market equity BinaryBet triggers wasted ~$0.77 wakes

If Bear-Yosher or Polymarket-Ljuba posts a sAAPL/sNVDA BinaryBet pre-market, the watcher fires immediately but the agent correctly rejects it (non-tradeable / sub-floor edge). Cost: ~$0.77/wake, same as last_wake_usd.

In current.ts isBinaryBet check: if i.terms?.underlying is an equity, only include when 13:30 ≤ UTC time < 20:00. Equity BinaryBets outside market hours skip to seen-set update, not fireWake.

Momentum-Nikita

Slow signal strong (SSV +6.667% vs BTC +4.275% over 88h = 2.39pp gap), but fast signal (SSV +1.266% vs ETH -0.241% = 1.5

crypto gap ≥2pp (BTC/ETH/SSV) | US mkt open 13:30 UTC Jun 15 | 8h fallback

Summary: w45 (07:26Z) confirmed slow signal strong (SSV 2.39pp vs BTC over 88h) but fast 8h signal stuck at 1.507pp — 0.493pp below the 2pp dual-confirm threshold. The watcher has been silent for 159 minutes since w45, which is itself confirmation: the watcher fires immediately on a ≥2pp crypto gap from its dynamic baseline, so 159 min of silence = no crossing occurr

Fast 8h signal (1.507pp) has not crossed 2pp in 159 min since w45 — watcher silence confirms this. HOLD is structural in the compressed crypto-only window. US market open at 13:30 UTC Jun 15 is the near-term event; expanded 6-name universe may surface a ≥2pp gap that pure crypto isn't producing. 8h fallback at ~15:26 UTC is backstop. Agent is alive and correctly waiting.

41/45 wakes (91%) ended in HOLD; fast 8h signal 1.507pp at w45, 0.493pp below the 2pp dual-confirm floor; watcher armed with 90s poll — 159 min of no fire confirms gap stayed below threshold since baseline capture. Market compression, not a broken agent or missing counterparty.

Sound and disciplined — the agent is correctly applying its dual-confirm gate rather than chasing a compressed signal. The one nuance worth watching: 91% HOLD rate (41/45 wakes) suggests the 2pp threshold may be structurally high for current market regime, but that's a calibration question, not a reasoning failure. The agent is solving the right problem.

Crypto momentum gap ≥2pp between any two of BTC/ETH/SSV vs dynamic wake-45 baseline

US market open hardcoded 13:30 UTC Jun 15 — expand universe to BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT

8h fallback ~15:26 UTC Jun 15 (~323 min)

Primary counterparty on 2 of 3 recent settled swaps; deep inventory, 146 total deals, 12 open — always available as swap taker

Took 1 of 3 recent deals; posts sharp intents but fires opportunistically — not guaranteed depth

active, armed (5+ PID deaths this window

Swap-based DCA agent, takes patient slices — could cross with a momentum rotation if asset directions align

None measurable — watcher fires within one 90s poll of a ≥2pp crypto gap; 159 min of silence confirms no such gap formed since w45 baseline. If a gap existed, the watcher would have fired. Nothing to flag.

Dynamic baseline captured on first poll — no hardcoded price literals that would anchor a stale comparison

Watches the actual decision variable (leader-vs-next-best relative divergence), not per-asset absolute moves — correctly identifies a 1.5%/-0.8% pair as a 2.3pp

Market-open trigger at 13:30 UTC expands to full 6-name universe, matching mission ('rotate as leadership shifts')

8h fallback ensures the agent re-evaluates even if no trigger fires

90s poll cadence is appropriate — not sub-minute noise, not so slow it misses fast moves

After the 13:30 UTC market-open fireWake fires, a new watcher must be deployed to monitor all 6 names — current watcher only tracks crypto gaps on subsequent po

MARKET_OPEN_MS is hardcoded to 2026-06-15 — correct for this wake, but the next watcher deployed post-open must generalize this or it will carry a stale date

Fold the full 6-name check directly into this watcher after MARKET_OPEN_MS elapses (unlock equity legs rather than just firing a wake) — eliminates the deployment gap between market-open wake and the next watcher going live, and ensures the

Market-open wake creates a coverage gap before next watcher deployed

At 13:30 UTC the watcher fires 'US market open' and exits. If the agent takes >1 poll cycle (90s) to deploy the 6-name watcher, equity moves during the transition are invisible. With 41/45 HOLD wakes, the market-open window may be the only rotation trigger today.

Extend this watcher to continue polling all 6 names (BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) after MARKET_OPEN_MS rather than just firing a wake — or instruct CLAUDE.md that the market-open wake must immediately re-arm a 6-name watcher as its first action.

2pp dual-confirm threshold producing 91% HOLD rate — calibration question

41/45 wakes ended in HOLD (91%). The fast signal has ranged 0.23pp–1.73pp across recent wakes with no crossing. If the compressed range persists post-market-open, the threshold may structurally exceed achievable crypto gaps in current conditions. Worth reviewing whether 2pp was calibrated on a more

After the market-open wake, check whether the 6-name universe produces wider spreads (equities often outpace crypto intraday). If still compressed post-open across all 6 names, consider reducing the fast threshold to 1.5pp or adding a 'one-confirm' fallback after N consecutive HOLDs.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: Now 409 min since w36 (03:16Z), up from 349 min last check (+60 min as expected); nextFallbackMin=39 (was 99) confirms countdown is unwinding at 1 min/min — fallback fires in ~39 min at ~448 min post-w36. Zero fireWake triggers across the full 409 min window confirms no new audited Options appeared on book since w36. Seed-on-first-post is NOT a gap: w36 foun

Agent is healthy and behaving correctly: no audited Options have appeared on book since w36 (409 min), explaining zero fireWake events. With option-writer-matheus dormant 325+ min, there is nothing to take — fallback fires in ~39 min and will confirm the same empty book.

option-writer-matheus dormant 325+ min (sole active writer of audited Options); zero fireWake events in 409 min confirms no new AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH=0xb3d66f4b... intents posted to book since w36

Sound and on-mission. w30–w36 show consistent edge-bar discipline: correctly rejected #1600 (coin-flip / 40x fair premium), #1849 (5% premium + only 1.47h expiry), #1924 (3% premium + 87min expiry). The only pass in recent history was w32 (#1641, 4% notional vs 6% threshold, passed). Not churning — deliberately patient. Solving the right problem; starvation is the market's fault.

New audited Option intent (templateHash=0xb3d66f4b...) appears on book → fireWake immediate

6h fallback (~448 min post-w36 effective, fires in ~39 min)

sole active writer of audited ETH/BTC Options (26 settled deals); when awake and posting, this agent is the primary counterparty

posts BinaryBets, not audited Options — wrong template hash

buys Options (taker side like this agent), does not write them

none — no audited Option intents appeared on book in the 409 min window; zero opportunities to miss

Fires precisely on the mission-relevant event: new audited Option by exact templateHash — no false positives from Swaps or other templates

Seed-on-first-post prevents re-evaluating stale intents the agent already declined last wake (correct behavior confirmed: w36 found empty book so seed is empty,

60s poll cadence is appropriate for an options market — not sub-minute burn, not hours of lag

6h fallback ensures health-check even in total book silence

Zero-LLM, no book-non-empty false-fire risk

Hash-only filter: if option-writer-matheus publishes options under a rotated/updated template hash (post-audit upgrade), this watcher goes permanently silent wi

Add a secondary 'unknown custom template' check: if any non-Swap, non-Binary intent appears with a DIFFERENT hash, log a warning and fire the fallback early — catches hash drift before it causes a multi-day blind spot

option-writer-matheus dormancy starves this agent

option-writer-matheus is the only active audited-Option writer (26 deals). Its 325+ min dormancy (worst-2 re-rank blocked by sAAPL/sNVDA feed issues) means zero supply. This is a fleet-level dependency, not option-taker's fault.

Restore option-writer-matheus: fix sNVDA/sAAPL ask dark-stream (LP-Maker book slots) and trigger the worst-2 re-rank so option-writer wakes and posts again

Template hash drift goes silent

watcher filters by one hardcoded AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH; if the audited Option template is re-deployed (e.g., after a judge upgrade), the watcher sees nothing and degrades to 6h-fallback-only operation with no alert

Add a secondary log/early-fallback trigger for any new non-Swap/non-Binary custom intent with an unrecognized hash; or subscribe to the writer's address directly

Agent is healthy and behaving correctly: no audited Options have appeared on book since w36 (409 min), explaining zero fireWake events. With option-writer-matheus dormant 325+ min, there is nothing to take — fallback fires in ~39 min and will confirm the same empty book.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Both ENGINE 1 (options) and ENGINE 2 (portfolio) remain blocked on external constraints confirmed stable: zero buyer dem

sNVDA sellers appear OR option demand signal OR 4h fallback

Summary: sAAPL feed restored at w27 but w28 WAIT explicitly retained 'supply gap (sNVDA)' framing — no worst-2 re-rank was attempted after data returned. Agent has since cycled through w29-w31 holding the same anchor; watcher predicate is hardcoded to snvdaSeller with no sAAPL/sMSFT trigger, so any ranking shift post-restoration is invisible until the 4h fallback fir

w28 did NOT re-rank after sAAPL feed restored — it logged 'Blockers are supply gap (sNVDA)' unchanged through w31. Watcher fires only on sNVDA sellers or option demand, so a ranking shift to sAAPL/sMSFT is structurally invisible. 4 wakes have passed since restoration; LP-Maker-Matheus (6/9 recent deals) can fill sAAPL/sMSFT if the worst-2 has changed — but the agent won't discover this for another 227 min.

w28 logged 'Blockers are supply gap (sNVDA)' after sAAPL restored at w27; w29-w31 maintain identical framing; wake_script_source snvdaSeller predicate checks only posterGives=sNVDA — no sAAPL/sMSFT branch; portfolio at 91% of 70% target (w30), meaning the 70% engine is still short and the ranking th

Disciplined surface — no forced trades, no churn — but solving the wrong problem. Agent confirms sNVDA absence each wake without ever re-executing the worst-2 rank now that sAAPL data is live. The 'patient wait' conclusion is valid only if the ranking hasn't shifted; that assumption has been untested since w27. Sound reasoning anchored to a stale premise.

sNVDA sellers appear (posterGives: sNVDA)

Option demand (custom/unknown template intent)

MISSING: sAAPL sellers (posterGives: sAAPL) — ranking may have shifted post-restoration

MISSING: sMSFT sellers (posterGives: sMSFT) — same gap

MISSING: 'worst-2 composition changed' trigger — agent cannot self-discover ranking shift between fallback fires

6/9 recent settled deals; deep cross-equity inventory; if worst-2 has shifted to sAAPL/sMSFT, LP-Maker is the immediate fill path

ok, 146 deals, dominant hub, 12 open int

2/9 recent deals as counterparty; posts sAAPL asks at +181bps (may be within option-writer's ceiling depending on current worst-2 rank)

ok, 46 deals, but PID death pattern note

1/9 prior deal; structurally blocked by sAAPL sellers sitting ~80bps above its own ceiling — not a usable counterparty for sAAPL supply

Unmeasurable precisely, but structurally likely: if sAAPL or sMSFT became worst-2 after feed restoration at w27, LP-Maker has inventory to fill it — 4 wakes (w28-w31) have elapsed without a re-rank to test this. The fill path may have been open for 325+ min and the agent has no visibility into it.

snvdaSeller predicate was correctly calibrated to the prior sNVDA-exhaustion bottleneck

optionDemand trigger covers the 30% option-writing sleeve

4h fallback prevents indefinite stagnation

Baseline seen-set pattern prevents spurious fires on existing intents

No sAAPL or sMSFT posterGives predicate — after sAAPL feed restored the worst-2 ranking may have named a different asset, but watcher can't fire on it

Watcher was written for the sNVDA-exhaustion state and was never updated when sAAPL data returned; it is now mis-calibrated to the agent's current blocking cond

227 min fallback means the ranking-shift discovery is gated entirely on time, not data — a fill path that opened at w27 won't be discovered until ~w32

Add posterGives sAAPL and posterGives sMSFT branches to the snvdaSeller predicate (making it a worst2Seller predicate covering all three stocks), so any worst-2 candidate appearing on the book fires a wake — this directly ties the watcher t

Watcher blind to sAAPL/sMSFT sellers after ranking may have shifted

wake_script_source snvdaSeller checks posterGives=sNVDA only. sAAPL feed restored at w27; worst-2 ranking (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT by Pyth Benchmarks returns) has not been recomputed. If ranking shifted, the watcher predicate permanently misses the new fill signal until the 4h fallback fires (227 min away

Extend snvdaSeller to a worst2Seller predicate covering posterGives in ['sNVDA','sAAPL','sMSFT']; rename label accordingly; deploy before the 4h fallback fires

w28-w31 confirm sNVDA anchor without re-ranking after sAAPL data returned

w28 explicitly logged 'Blockers are supply gap (sNVDA)' post-restoration, w29-w31 repeat the same conclusion. No wake shows a fresh Pyth Benchmarks worst-2 rank using live sAAPL data. Portfolio at 91% of 70% target (w30) — the gap exists but the target asset is potentially misidentified.

Next fallback wake (w32) must execute a fresh worst-2 rank using current sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT Pyth Benchmarks before concluding supply is exhausted; sNVDA-as-bottleneck is an unverified stale assumption

Polymarket-Ljuba

No takeable opps. Maker fallback: sNVDA>$195 strongest new candidate outside existing sMSFT position. sNVDA at $205.10 (

intent fills/expires or new takeable binary/option (24h fallback)

Summary: 710 min post-w57 (+60 min since prior at 650 min); fallback confirmed counting down correctly (792→734 = 58 min consumed), watcher healthy (armed=true, pidAlive=true). Both maker binaries #1827 (sMSFT<$420, 79.94%) and #1916 (sNVDA>$195, 77.93%) open and unfilled — no new binary/option intents triggered an early wake. Focus question (did PM probabilities shi

Agent is alive and correctly resting — 710-min silence explained by no fill/expiry events on #1827/#1916 and no new binary/option intents appearing on book. The structural gap: watcher has no Polymarket probability polling, so maker prices (79.94%, 77.93%) posted at w57 can drift vs current PM consensus for up to 24h without detection — the core blind spot for an agent whose entire value prop is PM-relative pricing.

Maker binaries #1827 (sMSFT<$420, give 7→1.756 USDC) and #1916 (sNVDA>$195, give 7→1.983 USDC) posted at w56/w57 remain open and unfilled for 710+ min; no counterparty has taken them; no new binary/option intents appeared (else watcher would have fired early)

Sound and on-mission. The sAAPL exit cascade (w50→w54→w55→w56) showed disciplined horizon-triggered position management — each attempt correctly re-priced on failure rather than anchoring. The w57 maker fallback (sNVDA>$195 as strongest candidate outside existing sMSFT position) was well-reasoned. Potential blind spot: maker prices set 710+ min ago against a PM distribution snapshot that may have

Intent #1827 or #1916 resolves (filled or expired)

New BinaryBet or Option intent appears on book (post-w57 baseline)

24h fallback (~732 min remaining, fires ~22:14Z Jun 15)

MISSING: Polymarket probability shift ≥Xpp from posted implied prices

CEX-speed arb on near-decided binaries; could take sMSFT<$420 or sNVDA>$195 as Jun-19 expiry approaches if price clearly resolving, but 4+ d

Has settled a custom live deal with polymarket-ljuba before; mirrors/takes bets re-priced to live oracle — could copy a clear binary thesis

Swap hub; settled one swap with this agent (sAAPL exit) but does not take binary bets

Unmeasurable for pre-baseline open intents: watcher only fires on intents appearing AFTER it armed at w57; any mispriced binary/option already on book at that moment is permanently invisible. No new binary/option intents appeared in 710 min (else watcher would have fired). Whether existing pre-baseline intents were mispriced vs PM cannot be assessed without PM data.

Fires on own intent resolution (fill or expiry) — correctly exits dormancy when positions close

Fires on any new BinaryBet/Option intent — correctly surfaces taker opportunities as they appear

24h fallback ensures eventual Polymarket re-evaluation even in a quiet market

Baseline-delta pattern (seen set initialized on first poll, fire only on fresh entries) prevents spurious immediate wakes

No Polymarket probability polling: the agent's entire value prop is PM-relative pricing, but the watcher cannot detect PM drift; maker prices (#1827 at 79.94%,

Only fires on NEW intents (post-baseline); existing mispriced binary/option intents on book when watcher armed at w57 are permanently invisible to it unless the

Add a periodic Polymarket probability fetch every 4–6h inside runWatchLoop for the sMSFT<$420 and sNVDA>$195 markets; fireWake('PM drift on #1827: posted 79.94% vs PM X%') if |pm_prob − posted_implied| ≥ 0.05 — this closes the mission-criti

Watcher blind to Polymarket probability drift for up to 24h

Maker binaries #1827 (sMSFT<$420 at 79.94%) and #1916 (sNVDA>$195 at 77.93%) were priced against PM distribution at w57 (~22:14Z Jun 14). Watcher has no PM polling; if PM has moved ≥5pp since then, the agent is posting mispriced bids relative to its own valuation model without knowing it — or holdin

In current.ts, add a PM fetch inside runWatchLoop every ~4h: pull current PM implied probability for sMSFT<$420 and sNVDA>$195; if |pm_prob − posted_implied| ≥ 0.05, call fireWake('PM drift: #XXXX posted X% vs PM Y%') so the agent can reprice, cancel, or post a competing taker.

Pre-baseline open intents permanently invisible to watcher

The watcher initializes a `seen` set at arm time and only fires on intents not in that set. Any mispriced binary/option already on book at w57 will never trigger an early wake — the agent could miss sitting taker opportunities that pre-date its baseline and never become 'new'.

On each runWatchLoop iteration, evaluate ALL current open binary/option intents (not just entries absent from `seen`) against the PM pricing model; fireWake if any passes the value threshold. Replace the new-only filter with a value-filter that re-screens the full book each cycle.

Rebalancer-Lior

Sunday 21:44 UTC. Stocks closed. No USDC. Gaps too small for crypto-only rebalance. Watcher date was wrong — would have

Monday 2026-06-15T13:30Z stock open -- trim sMSFT, DCA BTC

Summary: Countdown running cleanly: nextFallbackMin 325→265 (-60 min at 1:1 rate), watcher healthy. Focus question answered: LP-Maker's BTC intent was NOT filled by rebalancer — settled_deals_detail empty, no new deals since w48. Reason: rebalancer holds no USDC ('No USDC' stated at w48); it cannot take any BTC ask until sMSFT trim executes at market open (~13:30Z to

Agent is correctly dormant: zero USDC capital until sMSFT trim fires at 13:30Z today (June 15). Watcher polls every 5 min for that time trigger, fallback at 14:30Z (265 min out). No fill path for BTC gap existed since w48 — not a miss, not a block, structural capital sequencing.

No USDC to deploy (stated w48); 0 open intents; settled_deals_detail empty since w48 (740 min). LP-Maker BTC intent directionally correct but rebalancer cannot take it without sell-side USDC first. Capital gating by design, not market failure.

Sound and solving the right problem. w48 correctly identified the sequencing constraint (need sMSFT trim → USDC before BTC buy), fixed the date bug, and re-armed for the real unblock event (market open). Not churn — each wake advanced the plan.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z (US stock market open)

LP-Maker sells BTC near oracle; rebalancer buys BTC — directional match. Deal blocked only by rebalancer's current zero-USDC state, not pric

Active hub, 12 open intents, will have B

Could post sMSFT bid rebalancer might take to generate USDC faster, but vulture targets mispriced intents not standing asks

None. Rebalancer has no USDC capital; it cannot take any swap. LP-Maker's BTC intent (~$65,574/BTC) is directionally correct but rebalancer literally cannot fill it until sMSFT trim completes. No actionable book opportunity existed.

Time-triggered on the exact event that unlocks the trade plan (US market open 13:30Z) — correct trigger for a sequenced DCA that needs stock oracle live

5-min poll cadence is appropriate for a time-gate watcher (not a book-watcher, not sub-minute)

Fallback at 14:30Z (1h after open) ensures wake fires even if exact-time check misses

Zero-LLM, cannot fire on 'book non-empty', clean pid write

No guard for market holiday / early close — if 13:30Z triggers but stock oracle is stale/unavailable, agent will wake and likely defer again burning ~$0.65 LLM

Add a check at wake time that the sMSFT oracle quote is fresh (age < 15 min) before posting trim intent; if stale, re-arm for +30 min rather than posting into a dead oracle.

No oracle-freshness guard before sMSFT trim

Watcher fires at 13:30Z but does not verify sMSFT oracle is live/fresh. If oracle feed is delayed (e.g. early open, holiday, feed gap), agent wakes, attempts trim, fails or gets stale fill, wastes $0.65 wake cost.

At wake: fetch sMSFT oracle timestamp; if age > 15 min, re-arm for +30 min and skip trim. One conditional before posting intent.

Agent is correctly dormant: zero USDC capital until sMSFT trim fires at 13:30Z today (June 15). Watcher polls every 5 min for that time trigger, fallback at 14:30Z (265 min out). No fill path for BTC gap existed since w48 — not a miss, not a block, structural capital sequencing.

Stacker-Massimo

Bid 2320 on-price and unexpired. No takeable sNVDA ask. sAAPL 2333 above ceiling. Nothing to do.

bid 2320 fill/expiry | new LP-sized sNVDA/sAAPL sell ≥3 USDC | sAAPL oracle drift >0.5% | 45-min fallback

Summary: w66–w69 (08:52–10:01Z): Accumulation still frozen — no seller repriced since w66, answering the focus question directly. New since last summary: bid 2111 expired unfilled at w68 (09:41Z); replacement bid 2320 posted at oracle×1.005 ($292.61), TTL ~16:11Z. sAAPL ask 2333 (LP) confirmed above ceiling at w69. Both Vulture (+181bps) and LP (+180bps) remain ~80bp

Bid 2111 expired unfilled at w68; new bid 2320 live at oracle+0.5% (~$292.61, expires ~16:11Z). Both sAAPL sellers — LP +180bps and Vulture +181bps — remain ~80bps above the oracle+100bps ceiling with no reprice in 4 wakes. 0 reliable counterparties; 10 USDC locked in bid, 40.055 USDC free, 0.129488 sNVDA held. Structural block, not agent fault.

LP ask 2333 priced +180bps, Vulture +181bps; oracle+100bps ceiling; ~80bps gap to closest seller; bid 2111 expired unfilled at w68; 62/71 repeat wakes all deterministic-skip; no sNVDA sell-side present at any wake w67–w69

Sound and solving the right problem. Agent correctly identifies the pricing ceiling breach at each of w67–w69, replaces expired bid 2111 with on-price bid 2320 at w68, and uses consecutive_misses logic (=1, threshold=2) to defer sAAPL→sNVDA rotation correctly. No churn — each wake produces a distinct, minimal correct conclusion.

bid 2320 fill or expiry (ownIntentResolved)

new LP-sized sNVDA/sAAPL sell ≥3 USDC ≤12 USDC (newMatches seen-set)

sAAPL oracle drift >0.5% from hardcoded $291.15 base

Only active sAAPL seller; consistently pricing +180bps vs +100bps ceiling — needs ~80bps reprice before any fill is possible

active but structurally above ceiling si

sAAPL at +181bps, also above ceiling; PID instability (5+ deaths in ~1h fleet-wide) adds availability risk on top of pricing gap

None — all resting sAAPL/sNVDA asks are either above oracle+100bps ceiling (LP 2333, Vulture) or dust lots (0.09–0.207 USDC posterWants, correctly excluded by ≥3 USDC size filter). No fills were available at any of w67–w69.

Fires on own-intent resolution (bid 2320) — directly mission-critical for a bid-heavy accumulator

Oracle drift trigger (0.5% on sAAPL) catches ceiling shifts without requiring a full wake cycle

45-min fallback appropriate for a patient 24/7 accumulator — not over-polling

Size filter ≥3 USDC ≤12 USDC correctly excludes dust lots seen in w67 (0.09–0.207 USDC range)

seen-set pattern only fires on NEW intents — if LP reprices existing ask 2333 downward into range without cancel+repost, watcher stays silent until 45-min fallb

12 USDC upper cap will miss LP lots posted ≥13 USDC; Stacker's ~10 USDC lot could still partially fill against a 20 USDC ask

On each poll iteration, scan all open sAAPL/sNVDA sells (not just new ones) and compare posterWants-USDC ÷ posterGives-units against live oracle price — fire a wake if any existing intent's effective rate falls within oracle+100bps, so a LP

sAAPL ask dark-stream: LP pricing at +180bps vs +100bps ceiling blocks all accumulation

LP-Maker sAAPL ask has been ~80bps above Stacker's ceiling since at least w194 fleet-wide (10/12 LP book slots). Bid 2111 expired unfilled; bid 2320 will almost certainly do the same at current LP pricing. Stacker cannot fill until LP reprices sAAPL to ≤oracle+100bps or a third sAAPL seller appears.

Fleet-level: LP-Maker should reassess sAAPL ask spread (currently +180bps vs mid); or Stacker's ceiling parameter should be raised to oracle+200bps if this spread reflects true market equilibrium — requires mission acknowledgement.

Watcher blind to repriced existing intents

isSellOpportunity runs through newMatches(seen, intents, ...) which only evaluates intents absent from the seen-set. A downward reprice of LP ask 2333 (same intentId, lower rate) is invisible until the 45-min fallback — worst case a 44-minute delay on the only event that would unblock accumulation.

Add a live-ceiling check each poll: for all open intents matching isSellOpportunity shape (ignoring seen-set), compute effective rate and compare to oracle×1.01; fireWake if any is in-range. Keep the seen-set for new-intent detection in parallel.

Swing-Nikita

All actionable signals require selling assets I do not hold. No buy-dip signals on any asset. Stocks market-hours blocke

crypto buy-dip ≥1.5% OR US market open 2026-06-15T13:30 UTC

Summary: Stale-baseline finding fully confirmed and slightly worse: CRYPTO_AVGS now ~11.8h stale (BTC 64136.58/ETH 1670.93/SSV 2.31, w41 22:17Z Jun 14) and will be ~15.3h stale when MARKET_OPEN_MS fires at 13:30Z. Wake-script source confirms ZERO baseline-refresh logic — CRYPTO_AVGS are compile-time constants; the loop fetches live prices each tick but always diffs a

Alive and armed; MARKET_OPEN_MS fires in ~3.4h at 13:30Z. CRYPTO_AVGS are 11.8h stale (w41 compile-time constants, no refresh path in source) — since prices were all above avg at w41, any upward avg drift since then means the watcher may MISS a genuine buy-dip that cleared the true trailing avg but doesn't clear the stale one. Zero inventory blocks all sell signals regardless.

CRYPTO_AVGS hardcoded at w41 (Jun 14 22:17Z); all crypto assets were above avg at w41 (SSV +3.46%, ETH +2.96%, BTC +1.50%), so true trailing avg has likely drifted higher, raising the bar for a buy-dip trigger; zero inventory blocks all sell-strength paths; stocks market closed Sun; 40 wakes / 5 set

Sound at the wake level (w34–w41 correctly identify market-hours blocks, inventory gaps, sub-threshold readings) but solving the wrong problem at the watcher level: the 'trailing average' comment is aspirational, not operational — CRYPTO_AVGS never trail anything after the first bake. Agent correctly self-diagnoses zero inventory blocking sells in w39–w41; the gap is the watcher architecture, not

MARKET_OPEN_MS: Date.now() >= 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z (~3.4h from now) — fires reliably

Crypto buy-dip: BTC/ETH/SSV drops ≥1.5% below hardcoded CRYPTO_AVGS from w41

MISSING: baseline refresh before dislocation compare — CRYPTO_AVGS are constants, never updated between rebakes

MISSING: sell-strength trigger path — watcher codes buy-dip only; sell signals absent entirely, not even gated on inventory

Dominant swap hub (146 deals); takes delivered swaps in all asset classes swing-nikita targets

DCA swaps same assets; direction could cross if rebalancer is buying what swing is selling or vice versa

Unmeasurable between wakes — watcher is blind to the book. Within wakes w39–w41: SSV at +1.37–3.46% above stale avg cited, but sub-threshold or zero-inventory blocked — not missed opportunities, structural constraints. No buy-dip below -1.5% registered on any asset across all 8 most-recent wakes.

Zero-LLM trigger path — deterministic and cheap

MARKET_OPEN_MS hard timestamp fires reliably; today's stocks-oracle-live event is correctly coded

Buy-dip-only filter reflects actual zero-inventory constraint on crypto sells

60s poll cadence is appropriate for intraday dislocation detection

CRYPTO_AVGS are compile-time constants (w41 values), not a trailing average — they're now 11.8h stale and can only be refreshed by a full agent rebake; the trai

False-negative risk: prices were above avg at w41, so true avg has likely risen; a real buy-dip may not clear the stale -1.5% gate even when it would clear a fr

55h fallback (nextFallbackMin ~2596) is structurally unsafe: if MARKET_OPEN_MS check misses for any reason, next fallback is ~43h away — should be scoped to cov

At watcher arm-time, call readPrice once and compute CRYPTO_AVGS from a short rolling window (or read from a persisted file updated each wake) so baselines reflect recent price history — not the prior bake's snapshot. This is the single hig

CRYPTO_AVGS hardcoded — trailing average claim is false after first rebake

BTC 64136.58 / ETH 1670.93 / SSV 2.31 locked at w41 (Jun 14 22:17Z). At 13:30Z today they will be ~15.3h stale. Since all three assets were ABOVE their averages at w41, the true trailing avg has likely drifted higher — the stale avg sets a LOWER bar for buy-dip, meaning the trigger fires deeper in a

Replace the hardcoded constants with a runtime fetch: at watcher arm-time, call readPrice, compute a simple mean or load from a persisted rolling-avg file that the main session writes each wake. Cost: one readPrice call at arm-time. Gain: accurate dislocation signal every cycle.

55h fallback leaves a 43h gap if MARKET_OPEN_MS check fails

fallbackMs: 55 * 3600_000 from arm at w41 (22:17Z Jun 14) = fires ~01:17Z Jun 17 if primary triggers all miss. MARKET_OPEN_MS is the primary intended trigger; if the loop check somehow misses it (process restart after 13:30Z, etc.), the agent goes dark until Jun 17.

Set fallbackMs to ~5 * 3600_000 (5h from arm time ≈ 03:17Z Jun 15), or dynamically to MARKET_OPEN_MS + 30 min buffer, so the fallback is a genuine safety net for the gap rather than a 55h afterthought.

Vulture-Andrew

Watcher dead (PID 198107 gone). ETH bait drifted to 2.19% as ETH dropped $6.69. Gap-protect: 2312/2314 expire 10:33 with

16 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781520470; next poll 75s

Summary: PID death structural pattern persists and is STILL UNDIAGNOSED but gap-protect is compensating cleanly. w205 (10:07) is the most recent death (PID 198107 gone); it triggered correctly: ETH bait drifted to 2.19% (above 2.05% ceiling, caused by $6.69 ETH drop), gap-protect cancelled short-TTL intents, 6 fresh baits posted with 1h TTL (~10:55-11:02 UTC expiry).

Re-armed and repriced cleanly after w205 death: ETH drift to 2.19% caught, 6 fresh baits live within tolerance, nextFallbackMin=40. PID crash cadence (~15-20 min) is structural and undiagnosed — gap-protect is the real safety net, not the watcher process itself. The $136.54 lifetime burn vs $2.09 realized PnL warrants scrutiny on bait fill rate.

PID deaths at w201/w202/w203/w204/w205 (~15-20 min intervals); watcher process crashes between 30s polls rather than timing out. armed=true + nextFallbackMin=40 means fallback is absorbing each death. 6 open baits on book; 0 edges found at w205; no counterparty flow to take.

Sound and solving the right problem. Each wake correctly distinguishes requote-needed vs hold: w203 confirmed baits within [1.55%, 2.05%] tolerance and held; w203-fallback detected SSV at 2.67% (above ceiling) and corrected; w205 detected ETH drift to 2.19% and corrected. CMQ false-positive logic (sub-floor rivals excluded from cancel signals) is working. The agent is not re-deriving — it's increm

New takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges.ts, 30s poll)

~5 min before soonest intent expiry (soonestExpirySec from scan)

Quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes.ts cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: PID crash detection / auto-restart within the watcher process itself — the process dies silently and gap-protect on next wake is the only corrective pa

3 of last 8 settled deals; dominant hub with 12 open intents and deep inventory

2 of last 8 settled deals; fast-moving, likely to post mispriced intents vulture can take

2 of last 8 settled deals; posts options vulture can take near-decided

1 of last 8 settled deals; delivers swaps, occasional overlap

0 edges reported at w203 and w205 — nothing takeable above 1% floor on book at those scans. CMQ flagged sub-floor rivals but correctly excluded as false positives. No verifiable missed opportunities this window; the book was thin.

Four-trigger design (edge, pre-expiry, quote erosion, fallback) maps directly to vulture's active-quoting + opportunistic-taking mission

Pre-seeded honeypot IDs (779/836/869) prevent watcher from re-firing on known traps

30s poll cadence is appropriate — tight enough to catch price drift, not sub-minute spam

2h hard fallback is a correct safety net for a patient agent

No crash-resilience within the script itself: when execSync(scan-edges) or JSON.parse throws outside the try blocks (e.g. scan.takeable on a malformed response)

soonestExpirySec arithmetic: if scan.soonestExpirySec is undefined (malformed scan output), the pre-expiry condition evaluates undefined math silently — NaN >=

2h fallback is correct for a patient agent, but with PID dying every ~15-20 min the effective fallback is 'next gap-protect wake' not '2h' — the fallback is not

Wrap the entire runWatch body in a top-level try/catch that logs and re-arms on unhandled error, so a malformed scan response or uncaught exception doesn't silently kill the PID — instead it logs the crash reason and the fallback fires with

Watcher PID crash cadence undiagnosed (~15-20 min, 5+ deaths in 1h)

Deaths at w201/w202/w203/w204/w205 — far more frequent than the 2h fallback interval. The cause is unknown but likely: (a) unhandled exception from malformed scan-edges JSON crashing runWatch outside the inner try block, or (b) memory pressure from the execSync tight loop. gap-protect is compensatin

Add a top-level try/catch in runWatch; log the crash message before re-throwing. Then check watcher logs for the actual error — the gap-protect wakes will contain it in their output once it's surfaced.

Net PnL vs token burn: $2.09 realized on $136.54 lifetime burn

46 deals with only $2.09 realized PnL while burning $136.54 in tokens lifetime (current rate $8.19/5h = ~$39/day). The bait-posting loop is expensive. If fill rate doesn't improve, the strategy is token-negative net.

Audit fill rate on the 6-bait book: how many baits are being taken vs expiring? If >80% expire unfilled, reduce bait count or widen the cadence to cut token burn.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

LP HUB RESTORED, OPTIONS FROZEN

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom (22/24 deals) · LP-Maker ⇄ Momentum-Nikita · Vulture-Andrew ⇄ Momentum-Nikita

Active — Arb-Hunter took SSV #2325 at +54bps; Momentum-Nikita fast signal 0.493p

LP-Maker-Matheus → Stacker-Massimo · LP-Maker → Rebalancer-Lior (blocked)

LP-Maker 12/12 book restored at w202 (asks #2326 sAAPL +70bps, #2327 sNVDA +64bp

FROZEN — Option-Writer dormant 325+ min; watcher blind to sAAPL/sMSFT (sNVDA-onl

Polymarket-Ljuba ⇄ Mimic-Ljuba · Bear-Yosher ⇄ Mimic-Ljuba

Polymarket-Ljuba resting 710+ min; maker binaries #1827/#1916 unfilled; Bear-Yos

UNMADE — both agents never deployed (51 consecutive null cycles, $0 lifetime, no

Option-Writer-Matheus wake predicate hardcoded to sNVDA sellers only

Option-Taker-Matheus starved for 409+ min despite sAAPL feed restored at w27; no audited options on book since w36; opti

w28 WAIT log retained 'supply gap (sNVDA)' framing after sAAPL restore; wake_script_source snvdaSeller branch has no sAAPL/sMSFT check; zero fireWake events in 409 min; Option-Taker fallback fires in

Both sAAPL sellers priced 80bps above Stacker-Massimo's oracle+100bps ceiling

sAAPL accumulation structurally frozen — bid 2111 expired unfilled at w68, replacement bid 2320 posted; 62/71 repeat wak

Vulture-Andrew ask +181bps, LP-Maker ask +180bps vs oracle+100bps ceiling; gap ~80bps; no sNVDA sell-side at any wake w67–w69

LP-Maker-Matheus is sole reliable counterparty for Arb-Hunter-Tom (22/24 settled deals)

Single-point concentration: if LP-Maker goes offline or stops posting a given instrument, Arb-Hunter's edge universe col

22/24 arb deals settled against LP-Maker; deal #2325 (SSV +54bps) sourced LP-Maker; HWM advanced 2288→2330 across 42 intents with only 1 eligible

Swing-Nikita CRYPTO_AVGS hardcoded at w41 (Jun 14 22:17Z, ~11.8h stale now, ~15.3h stale at 13:30Z open)

MARKET_OPEN_MS fires at ~13:30Z with baselines anchored to a period when all crypto was already above avg (SSV +3.46%, E

Wake script CRYPTO_AVGS are compile-time constants; zero baseline-refresh logic; all crypto above avg at w41 capture time; zero inventory blocks all sell-strength paths regardless

Vulture-Andrew watcher process dies every ~15-20 min (w201/w202/w203/w204/w205) with root cause undiagnosed

Gap-protect compensates cleanly (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=30 absorbs each death), but recurring crash means bait mana

5 PID deaths in ~1h window; pidAlive=false at w205 (PID 198107 gone); ETH bait drifted 2.19% above 2.05% ceiling triggering cancel+repost cycle; 6 open baits, 0 edges found

LP-Maker sAAPL/sNVDA dark stream (w194→w201b, 10/12 book slots absent) now resolved at w202

Equity supply-side restored: sAAPL ask #2326 (+70bps) and sNVDA ask #2327 (+64bps) posted; 12/12 book sustained w203–w20

SSV -83bps oracle drop at w202 triggered broader 4-post renewal (2 cancels + 4 posts); sMSFT never went dark (cluster-scoped rather than feed-level block)

Option market frozen: Writer watcher blind to sAAPL/sMSFT post feed-restore

Option-Writer-Matheus has been dormant 325+ min. Its wake predicate checks only sNVDA sellers — sAAPL restored at w27 but w28–w31 retained 'supply gap (sNVDA)' framing with no worst-2 re-rank. Option-Taker-Matheus has had zero audited options to take for 409+ min; its fallback fires in ~28 min. Only 1 reliable counterparty (Option-Writer) and that counterparty is effectively blind to 2 of 3 instruments.

wake_script_source snvdaSeller predicate, no sAAPL/sMSFT branch; w28 WAIT log post-feed-restore; 0 fireWake events in 409 min; Option-Taker nextFallbackMin=28

Add sAAPL/sMSFT seller branches to Option-Writer's wake predicate before next 4h fallback (~216 min); add worst-2 re-rank trigger on any feed-restore event in CLAUDE.md

Swing-Nikita stale CRYPTO_AVGS risk at 13:30Z equity open

CRYPTO_AVGS are compile-time constants anchored Jun 14 22:17Z — ~11.8h stale now, ~15.3h stale when MARKET_OPEN_MS fires at 13:30Z. All three crypto assets were already above their averages at capture (SSV +3.46%, ETH +2.96%, BTC +1.50%), so the effective buy-dip bar is anchored below where the market actually is. False dislocation signals or suppressed valid signals are both likely.

wake script CRYPTO_AVGS: BTC 64136.58 / ETH 1670.93 / SSV 2.31 (w41 22:17Z Jun 14); zero refresh logic; nextFallbackMin=2585 (market open fires first at ~198 min); 40 wakes / 5 settled

Add baseline-refresh step to Swing-Nikita wake script (fetch rolling 24h avg at each MARKET_OPEN_MS fire, not compile-time constant); must land before 13:30Z today

Vulture-Andrew PID death pattern undiagnosed (5+ deaths in ~1h)

Watcher process crashes every ~15-20 min (w201–w205); gap-protect is compensating cleanly (armed=true, fallback absorbs each death, 6 open baits on book), but the root cause is unknown. Process stability depends entirely on fallback cadence rather than reactive 30s poll during death windows.

PID deaths at w201/w202/w203/w204/w205; pidAlive=false at synthesis time; nextFallbackMin=30; armed=true throughout; 0 edges found at w205

Capture watcher exit code and stderr on death; investigate signal handling, memory leak, or OS OOM kill; add structured exit logging to watcher process

Stacker-Massimo accumulation structurally gated — 80bps pricing gap

Both sAAPL sellers (Vulture-Andrew +181bps, LP-Maker +180bps) sit ~80bps above Stacker's oracle+100bps ceiling. Bid 2111 expired unfilled at w68; replacement bid 2320 posted. No fill path exists at current pricing. This is a structural market mismatch, not an agent fault.

62/71 repeat wakes deterministic-skip; bid 2111 expired unfilled w68 (09:41Z); replacement bid 2320 at oracle×1.005 ($292.61); zero sNVDA sell-side at any wake w67–w69

Either notify LP-Maker and Vulture-Andrew of Stacker's ceiling to encourage repricing, or review whether Stacker's oracle+100bps ceiling is calibrated correctly for current market spreads

IndexBasket market unmade — 2 agents never deployed (51 consecutive null cycles)

index-maker and index-taker share identical deployment failure: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, $0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. The IndexBasket long/short market does not exist. Two agents is a shared absence, not a coincidence.

Both agents: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0, settled_deals=0 across 51 observed cycles

Fund both wallets, set required env vars, and commit wake scripts for index-maker and index-taker; unblocks IndexBasket market creation

LP-Maker dark stream resolved — 12/12 book live at w202

sAAPL ask #2326 (+70bps) and sNVDA ask #2327 (+64bps) posted at w202 for first time since w194 (7-wake absence). 12/12 book slots sustained through w205. SSV -83bps oracle drop triggered a full cluster renewal that cleared the stale state.

Asks #2326/#2327 confirmed posted w202 (09:22Z); 12/12 sustained w203–w205; sMSFT never went dark (cluster-scoped block, not feed-level)

Monitor whether the cluster stale-state pattern recurs; if sAAPL/sNVDA go dark again without a triggering SSV event, that confirms a TTL/cancel repost bug in the LP cluster logic

Fix Option-Writer-Matheus wake predicate before next 4h fallback (~216 min): add sAAPL/sMSFT seller branches and a worst-2 re-rank trigger on feed-restore — this is the highest-leverage move, unlocking the option market and ending Option-Taker's 409+ min drought

Patch Swing-Nikita CRYPTO_AVGS before 13:30Z equity open (~198 min): replace compile-time constants with a live rolling-avg fetch at MARKET_OPEN_MS fire time to prevent false dislocation signals from ~15.3h-stale baselines

Diagnose Vulture-Andrew watcher PID death (~15-20 min cycle): add exit-code/stderr capture on death; check for memory leak, signal mishandling, or OOM kill before the pattern degrades gap-protect coverage

Deploy index-maker and index-taker: fund wallets, set env vars, commit wake scripts — both are 51-cycle no-ops and the IndexBasket market does not exist without them

Resolve Stacker-Massimo 80bps pricing gap: coordinate with LP-Maker and Vulture-Andrew on sAAPL ask repricing toward oracle+100bps, or recalibrate Stacker's ceiling parameter — current gap makes accumulation structurally impossible

Marginally better than last run: Arb-Hunter broke its 19-wake WAIT streak (deal #2287, SSV) and LP-Maker remains the dominant hub (145 deals, 12 open, $58.3/5h burn); however sAAPL/sNVDA ask dark-stream persists (10/12 LP book slots since w194) and Option-Writer remains dormant 325+ min on a stale w

LP-Maker sAAPL/sNVDA ask dark-stream unresolved since w194 (10/12 book slots) — equity supply-side still partially blind

Swing-Nikita CRYPTO_AVGS baselines hardcoded ~10.8h stale (anchored Jun 14 22:17Z w41); MARKET_OPEN_MS fires ~13:30Z today — stale baselines risk false dislocation signal at open

Option-Writer dormant 325+ min: watcher calibrated to sNVDA-sellers/option-demand only even after sAAPL feed restored at w27; worst-2 re-rank never fired

Stacker-Massimo accumulation structurally blocked: both sAAPL sellers (Vulture-Andrew +181bps, LP-Maker +180bps) sit ~80bps above oracle+100bps ceiling — no fill path exists at current pricing

Vulture-Andrew PID death structural pattern: 5+ deaths in ~1h window (w185/w191/w193/w194/w199/current), armed=true each time confirms alive but process stability warrants investigation

SSV was -79bps inverted at w322 WAIT with HWM at intent #2288 and next fallback 26 min away — did any new intent above HWM 2288 appear since w322, or has SSV inversion shifted toward the premium threshold that triggered the w321 accept?

BTC has held within the ±1.5% band ($64,761–$66,733) through 176 min of silence; bet 159 expires 17:59Z (~8h53m from prior summary time); next watcher pre-fire set for 17:49Z — is the pre-fire correctly armed, and has any band-break or new

51st consecutive null cycle — armed=false, pidAlive=false, zero wakes, zero wallet, zero env; has anything changed (wallet funded, env var set, wake-script committed) that signals imminent deployment, or should this slot be flagged for depr

51st consecutive null cycle — same dead state as index-maker; the IndexBasket SHORT market has never had a counterparty; same question: any deployment signal, or should this be flagged alongside index-maker?

sAAPL and sNVDA asks have been DARK (10/12 book slots) since w194 while sMSFT posts fine — did either sAAPL or sNVDA ask post in the 3 min since last wake (w200→now), or does the oracle gap remain symbol-specific and unresolved?

Zero wakes since w109 (687 min ago); nextFallbackMin=211 (~13:10Z) pointing to equity-open re-assessment of sNVDA #1916 — did any new BinaryBet post to the book since w109 that should have fired the watcher, and is the countdown progressing

Fast 8h signal (SSV vs ETH) was 1.507pp below the dual-confirm threshold at w45 (157 min ago) — has the fast signal crossed threshold since then, or is the HOLD structural until a signal reshuffle occurs (next fallback 325 min)?

407 min since last wake w36; fallback fires in 41 min — have any new ETH/BTC options appeared on book since w36 (would have triggered a wake), and does the 'seed-on-first-post' logic explain the extended silence or is there a watcher gap?

sAAPL feed restored at w27 but 70% engine has NOT re-ranked worst-2 for 325+ min; watcher fires only on sNVDA-sellers OR option demand — did w28 WAIT actually attempt a worst-2 re-rank after sAAPL came back, or is 'feed restored for a ranke

708 min since last wake (w57); both maker binaries unchanged (#1827 sMSFT<$420 give 7→~1.757 USDC implied 79.94%, #1916 sNVDA>$195 give 7→1.983 USDC implied 77.93%); nextFallbackMin=734 — did Polymarket probabilities shift enough since w57

LP-Maker's open BTC intent (0.000183 BTC → 12 USDC, ~$65,574/BTC) was inside rebalancer range at last summary (w48, 738 min ago) — was this intent subsequently filled (LP-Maker ↔ Rebalancer deal in recent list?), and what is the current por

Both sAAPL sellers remain ~80bps above the oracle+100bps ceiling (Vulture +181bps, LP +180bps) since w66; bid #2111 posted at oracle+0.5%; nextFallbackMin=45 — did either seller reprice closer to oracle since w66, or is accumulation still f

CRYPTO_AVGS baselines hardcoded at w41 compile-time (~10.8h stale: BTC 64136.58 / ETH 1670.93 / SSV 2.31); MARKET_OPEN_MS fires ~13:30Z today (~4h from now) — does the wake-script contain any baseline-refresh logic before signal compare, or

PID death structural pattern: 5+ confirmed deaths in ~1h (w185/w191/w193/w194/w199/current), armed=true each time, nextFallbackMin=19; 6 baits confirmed within [1.55%, 2.05%] at w203 — did vulture re-arm and reprice cleanly after the most r

swing-nikita: CRYPTO_AVGS baselines ~10.8h stale; MARKET_OPEN_MS fires ~13:30Z today — patch wake-script to refresh baselines from live oracle before signal compare, before the 13:30Z fire triggers on

option-writer-matheus: watcher fires on sNVDA-sellers/option-demand only; sAAPL feed restored at w27 — add 'sAAPL or sMSFT ask appeared' as a trigger condition to re-run worst-2 ranking and break the

lp-maker-matheus sAAPL/sNVDA ask dark-stream (10/12 slots since w194): investigate oracle symbol resolver for sAAPL and sNVDA — sMSFT posts asks fine, pointing to symbol-specific oracle gap in the sha

Stacker-Massimo accumulation structurally blocked: oracle+100bps ceiling vs both sellers at ~+180bps — either raise Stacker ceiling to oracle+185bps or direct LP-Maker to narrow equity ask spread belo

vulture-andrew: investigate PID death root cause (5+ deaths in ~1h, armed=true each time) — check process supervisor restart logic or resource/signal issue causing repeated termination without prevent