Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary bet has taker side in CEX money. All USDC-payable swaps taker-negative at oracle. New Option template not in m

new intent on book beyond #71 (2h fallback)

Summary: W4 deal stands as the only fill (swap #22, +57bps, 2 SSV ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus). W5–W7 were correct passes; W8–W10 continue the same pattern: BTC is $480–635 below the $64k binary strike so the taker side (BTC≥$64k) has no CEX support, and all USDC-payable swaps remain taker-negative or sub-10bps. The Polymarket-Ljuba BinaryBet at 0.617 implied is still not nea

W8–W10 are disciplined correct passes with cited evidence (BTC $480–635 below strike; swaps taker-negative). The agent is not broken — it's waiting correctly on a thin book. The one structural gap is the wake script: the primary mission surface (near-decided binary) has no dedicated intra-cycle trigger, relying entirely on the 2h fallback if no new intent appears.

BTC ~$63,365–$63,520 vs $64k strike across W8/W9/W10; no ≥10bps USDC-payable swap seen since W4; sole settled deal is swap #22 ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus

Sound and on-mission. Each pass cites a specific BTC-vs-strike delta (W8: $635, W9: $480) and explicitly checks both surfaces (binary CEX taker side, swap edge ≥10bps). W10 correctly scopes out a new Option template as outside mission. No churn, no re-derivation — the agent is doing exactly what it should on a thin book.

MISSING: binary bet approaching near-decided threshold (CEX price converging on strike) — currently only catchable by coincident new-intent arrival or 2h fallba

sole swap counterparty; 11 open quotes expiring ~50min — reprice event could momentarily open a ≥10bps gap arb-hunter can take

posts binary bets; current BinaryBet at 0.617 implied is not near-decided, but a BTC move toward $64k would flip this fast

posts Options — arb-hunter mission is binaries and swaps only; W10 explicitly excluded Option template

None identifiable. W8–W10 passes are all cited with specific evidence. New swaps #56/#57 were sub-threshold or required assets not held (no USDC give-leg alternative). The binary bet taker side consistently has no CEX support given BTC's distance from the $64k strike.

fires on any new intent — correct for a pure taker scanning for stale swap mispricing

60s poll cadence is appropriate (not sub-minute burn, not so slow it misses fast fills)

2h hard fallback ensures the agent wakes even if the book goes quiet

baseline snapshot on first loop iteration prevents false-firing on already-known intents

no trigger for the PRIMARY mission surface: a binary bet becoming near-decided (CEX price converging on strike) — this can happen entirely without a new intent

agent relies on 2h fallback to catch binary resolution events, meaning it can be up to 2h late on what the mission calls its primary edge

Add a parallel price-vs-strike check inside the watch loop: if abs(CEX_BTC_price - binary_strike) < threshold_for_near_decided (e.g. 0.5% of strike), fireWake immediately rather than waiting for a new intent or the 2h fallback. This directl

Wake script blind to binary near-decided trigger

The watcher fires only on new intents and a 2h fallback. The agent's primary mission is to take near-decided binary bets confirmed by the CEX feed — but no watch-loop logic monitors CEX price vs binary strike. A BTC run to $64k while the book is quiet (no new intents) would be missed until the 2h fa

Inside the runWatchLoop body, after reading open intents, also fetch current CEX BTC price and compare against any open binary strike prices; if distance < near-decided threshold, call fireWake with a binary-near-decided label.

USDC-only portfolio limits swap taker surface

W3 and W9 explicitly note intents that require crypto as the give-leg cannot be filled. With only USDC + 2 SSV held, a large fraction of the swap book is unreachable.

Evaluate whether holding a small ETH or BTC balance (consistent with mission risk tolerance) would materially expand the takeable swap surface; if yes, update CLAUDE.md target portfolio.

Bear-Yosher

Bear thesis intact (SHORT posture). No aligned binary to take. Posted standing BELOW bet + started tech basket via sNVDA

intent-48 resolved | ETH +1.5% adverse | new tech sell | 4h fallback

Summary: Sixth consecutive cycle: zero observable change from last run. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, lifetime spend still frozen at $0.78 — identical to cycles 1–5. The single initialization run settled 1 swap (↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, -$2.36 realized PnL) and left 1 open intent (a BinaryBet per Step-1 note) orphaned on-book with no watcher to man

Six cycles, $0.78 spend, 0 wakes, 0 watcher registration — this is not a resting agent, it is a crashed init. One orphaned BinaryBet intent sits on-book unmanaged; the agent cannot cancel, update, or respond to price moves against it.

wake_script_source=null across all 6 cycles; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; lifetime spend $0.78 frozen since cycle 1; 0 wakes recorded; 1 settled deal (swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus) and 1 open intent are both residue from the single initialization call — no subsequent activity

Cannot assess — 0 wakes, no reasoning trace. The initialization call completed (hence $0.78 spend and the 1 settled swap) but produced no running process and no watcher. No loop, no churn, no mission execution of any kind for 6 cycles.

MISSING: no watcher registered — nextFallbackMin=null, no price trigger, no book trigger, no timer

arb-hunter-tom targets near-decided BinaryBets — bear-yosher's orphaned open BinaryBet is exactly this target class

armed (Step-1 confirms active this cycle

mimic-ljuba accepts winnable open BinaryBets re-priced to live oracle — bear-yosher's orphan is a candidate

armed=true, pidAlive=true as of this cyc

takes near-decided binaries — depends on how close bear-yosher's bet is to resolution

swap counterparty only; already settled the one swap from initialization

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — bear-yosher has no running process and cannot observe or act on any opportunity. The orphaned BinaryBet may itself be a missed opportunity for arb-hunter-tom or mimic-ljuba to take, not an opportunity for bear-yosher.

wake_script_source=null — no script exists or was never written to disk

No watcher registered in 6 consecutive cycles

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — agent cannot self-rescue

Manual re-deploy is the only path — no script to fix. On re-deploy, the wake script must register a watcher with at minimum a periodic fallback (e.g., 4h) and a price-move trigger (>2% ETH/BTC move) consistent with the halt condition in mis

Permanent initialization failure — no watcher ever registered

6 cycles, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null. The $0.78 init call completed but left no running process. Orphaned BinaryBet intent on-book with no managing agent — cannot cancel or respond to adverse price moves.

Manual re-deploy of bear-yosher. Verify on re-deploy that wake_script_source populates and armed=true before closing the ticket.

Orphaned open BinaryBet intent — unmanaged position risk

1 open intent (BinaryBet) posted at initialization, no agent alive to cancel if ETH/BTC moves persistently >2% against the short — the exact halt condition in mission. realized_pnl already -$2.36 from the one settled swap.

Before or immediately after re-deploy, manually inspect and if appropriate cancel the open BinaryBet intent to prevent unmanaged loss on a dead agent's position.

Six cycles, $0.78 spend, 0 wakes, 0 watcher registration — this is not a resting agent, it is a crashed init. One orphaned BinaryBet intent sits on-book unmanaged; the agent cannot cancel, update, or respond to price moves against it.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Free-option risk on 3 intents. Two network swaps cleared τ=3bps threshold. Full 12-quote book required repost of 6 missi

new fillable USDC→asset swap, or 45 min (10 min before quote expiry)

Summary: Recovery is genuine and clean. The 18:38 wake (w1) detected all 12 pre-crash quotes as price-stale (including sAAPL intent #29 above oracle), executed 12/12 cancels, and reposted 12/12 fresh at current oracle mid — the focus question is answered with evidence. Now 11 open (one filled by Bear-Yosher since repost). 3 settled deals this cycle vs 2 last cycle, a

Fresh restart confirmed: 12/12 stale quotes cancelled and reposted at oracle mid at 18:38. 3 deals settled (Bear-Yosher new this cycle), book live with 11 open intents. However realized PnL is -$59.67 lifetime against $17.89 in token costs — the LP is getting picked off, not just providing liquidity.

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

Sound and on-mission: the wake correctly identified stale quotes (including an above-oracle sAAPL bid), cleaned the book, and reposted two-sided. The agent is solving the right problem — staleness detection and repricing — but the underlying pricing model (pure oracle-mid with no spread) is the structural gap letting arb flow drain PnL.

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

armed, 0 deals — likely the adverse-sele

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

armed but two triggers stale, only 4h fa

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Not applicable — LP mission is to be taken, not to take. The 1 intent filled since repost (Bear-Yosher) is normal throughput. Adverse selection by informed takers is the concern, not missed takes.

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Add a PnL floor guard in the wake script (or agent CLAUDE.md): if realized_pnl < -N USDC per wake cycle, skip reposting and emit a diagnostic — stops the LP from being a continuously open arb target while losing money.

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

One deliberate move rule: skip thin or no-edge bets. Deal #3's +22pp locked edge dominates; waiting for resolution or ne

Summary: No change since last run: still 0 wakes, $0 burn, armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null. The agent has never been initialized. Even if deployed today, the binary-bet supply chain it depends on remains broken — polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, and option-writer-matheus are all still crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false). arb-hunter-tom is now

mimic-ljuba has zero path to productive operation this cycle. Two independent blockers must both be resolved first: (1) the agent must be initialized and a watcher deployed (0 wakes, null wake_script), and (2) at least one binary-bet writer — polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, or option-writer-matheus — must be uncrashed and posting, since arb-hunter-tom's role is to take those bets, not supply them.

0 lifetime wakes, null wake_script_source, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false — agent never bootstrapped. Supply chain: polymarket-ljuba (armed=false/pidAlive=false), vulture-andrew (armed=false/pidAlive=false), option-writer-matheus (armed=false/pidAlive=false) — all three potential binary

N/A — agent has never run; no reasoning to evaluate. The prior summary correctly diagnosed the dual blocker and nothing has changed to alter that conclusion.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher process (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

MISSING: no binary-bet-posted event trigger (all supply-side agents crashed)

Takes binary bets (taker-side), does not post them — produces no flow for mimic-ljuba to mirror

Posts small-shade binary intents; mimic-ljuba's primary mirror source

Posts near-decided binary intents as part of baited-intent strategy; could supply mimic-ljuba

Writes options and potentially binary instruments; secondary supply source

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never run and has no wake script; cannot assess whether any on-chain BinaryBets existed that it could have accepted

No script exists at all (wake_script_source=null) — agent was never initialized

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

No trigger on BinaryBet-posted events from fleet counterparties

Initialize the agent: deploy a watcher that triggers on BinaryBet-posted chain events from polymarket-ljuba and vulture-andrew addresses, with a 60-min fallback for scanning open accepted bets — but this is moot until at least one supply-si

Agent never initialized — no watcher deployed

0 wakes, $0 burn, null wake_script_source, armed=false, pidAlive=false. The agent directory exists but was never bootstrapped with a watcher script.

Run agent init to deploy wake script and start watcher process; script should trigger on BinaryBet-posted events with 60-min fallback.

All binary-bet supply-side agents crashed — mimic-ljuba has no flow to mirror

polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, and option-writer-matheus are all armed=false/pidAlive=false. These three are the only agents in the fleet that post binary bets. arb-hunter-tom (alive) is a taker, not a poster — it competes for the same flow mimic-ljuba needs.

Uncrash polymarket-ljuba first (it has the highest binary posting frequency per mission); this single action creates the supply chain mimic-ljuba needs and also benefits arb-hunter-tom's deal flow.

Momentum-Nikita

First wake — no trailing returns. Establishing baseline prices. Taking ~25% starter position in BTC (strongest crypto by

intent #28 resolves (fill/expiry) or 90min

Summary: Intent #28 resolved — almost certainly expired unfilled (deals still=1, unchanged from last cycle; a fill would show deals=2). The 90-min watcher exited as designed (armed=false, pidAlive=false), but no re-wake followed: wakes counter still=1 and last_wake_min_ago=112 — if the fallback had successfully re-launched the agent, we'd see last_wake_min_ago≈22 and

Intent #28 (BTC 25% starter position, $16.27 realized from the 1 filled starter swap vs LP-Maker-Matheus) expired unfilled. The watcher's 90-min fallback fired and the process died on schedule, but fireWake did not re-launch the agent — wakes=1/last_wake=112min confirm no second wake occurred. Agent is permanently dead until a manual restart or platform fix.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; wakes=1 (unchanged); last_wake_min_ago=112 vs expected ~22 if re-launch had succeeded; deals=1 (no fill of intent #28)

The single wake's reasoning was sound — correctly identified BTC as strongest mover, posted a 25% starter position (intent #28), and armed a well-scoped watcher. Reasoning quality is not the issue; the agent never got a second chance to re-decide. Sound reasoning, wrong-problem irrelevant — the platform dropped the re-launch signal.

ownIntentResolved(intent #28) — fires on fill or expiry

90-min fallback — should have fired ~22 min ago, watcher process confirms it did exit

MISSING: post-fireWake agent re-launch — watcher died correctly but platform did not restart the agent

Sole counterparty for delivered swaps; produced the 1 settled deal (BTC starter swap)

armed=true, 11 open quotes expiring in ~

With no wake in 112 min and LP-Maker-Matheus holding 11 live quotes, momentum-nikita has missed at least one full re-decision cycle; watcher is blind to the book so exact missed intents are unmeasurable, but opportunity cost is real given LP quotes expire ~50 min from now.

Fires on intent resolution (fill OR expiry) — correct; momentum must act the moment outcome is known, not wait on a timer

90-min fallback covers the full RFQ window plus buffer — appropriately patient for a delivered-swap mission

Zero-LLM, minimal, cannot spuriously fire on book-non-empty

No self-healing after fireWake: if the platform drops the re-launch, the agent stays dead permanently — by design the watcher exits on fire, but there is no wat

Arm the next watcher from within the agent wake itself (write current.ts before posting the intent), so a failed re-launch is detectable as 'watcher armed but no new wake' rather than total silence — or add a core watchdog that pages on arm

fireWake → agent re-launch silent failure

Watcher exited correctly (armed=false, pidAlive=false) ~22 min ago, but no agent wake followed: wakes=1, last_wake_min_ago=112. The platform's fireWake → agent-launch pipeline dropped the signal with no error surfaced.

Audit the fireWake → process-spawn handoff in the core SDK; add a watchdog that detects armed=false AND pidAlive=false AND open_intents=0 AND last_wake > fallback_ms and auto-restarts or pages.

Agent stranded — manual restart required now

momentum-nikita cannot self-recover: 0 open intents, no armed watcher, realized_pnl=$16.27 from 1 deal. LP-Maker-Matheus quotes expire in ~50 min — every minute of delay is a missed re-entry window.

Manually trigger a new agent wake immediately; on restart the agent should re-survey momentum leadership and either re-enter BTC (if still leading) or rotate to the new leader.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: Eighth-plus consecutive flatline cycle — zero change from prior: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, $0.15 lifetime spend (single bootstrap LLM call, never produced a deployed watcher). Critically, option-writer-matheus just revived this cycle (armed=true, 4 live intents including USDC→BTC ~$15.75 and a custom 10 USDC→

Fully crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0.15 lifetime). Option-writer-matheus's revival with 4 live intents — including a USDC→BTC swap at ~$15.75 and a custom 10→0.6 USDC intent — is exactly the inventory this agent is built to evaluate. It has no watcher and cannot act. This is now the highest-cost individual crash on the fleet.

wake_script_source=null across 8+ cycles; single $0.15 spend indicates bootstrap LLM call fired but never produced or deployed a watcher; armed=false + pidAlive=false + nextFallbackMin=null confirms zero recovery path; settled_deals_detail=[], open_intents=null

No reasoning observable — zero wakes, no loop running. The agent never entered its operational reasoning phase. On-mission quality is unmeasurable. Cannot distinguish 'disciplined selectivity' from 'complete absence' — the latter is confirmed.

MISSING: any trigger — no watcher deployed

MISSING: option-book monitor targeting option-writer-matheus open custom intents

MISSING: fallback heartbeat — no timed recovery path exists

Primary and intended counterparty — writes ETH/BTC structured options; now armed=true with 4 live intents including USDC→BTC and a custom de

REVIVED — armed=true, pidAlive=true, las

option-writer-matheus posted USDC→BTC (~$15.75) and a custom 10 USDC→0.6 USDC intent this cycle — first ETH/BTC-adjacent and custom-judge inventory on the book in 8+ cycles; option-taker-matheus evaluated neither (no watcher, no loop). Unmeasurable how many prior cycles had similar intents expire unfilled.

No wake script exists (wake_script_source=null) — bootstrap never produced a deployed watcher

No fallback timer — zero timed recovery path, agent cannot self-heal

No book monitor — cannot detect option-writer-matheus's custom or USDC→BTC intents

Re-trigger bootstrap manually; the watcher should poll option-writer-matheus's open custom intents for USDC→ETH/BTC deals and fire when a near-decided or below-fair-value option appears — cadence of 10–20 min is appropriate given the writer

Bootstrap never completed — no watcher deployed across 8+ cycles

Single $0.15 spend (one LLM call) with no wake script produced and no deployment confirmed. The $0.15 = last_wake_usd suggests the bootstrap call itself ran but its output was never translated into a running watcher process. With option-writer-matheus now live for the first time in 8 cycles, every m

Manually re-trigger bootstrap. Diagnose why the initial call did not produce a deployed wake script — likely candidates: CLAUDE.md unreachable from bootstrap context, tool call (write watcher file / register process) silently failed, or deploy step was skipped. Once watcher is deployed, verify it ex

Option-Writer-Matheus

Build 70/30 portfolio on first wake. Contrarian tilt to worst performers sAAPL+sMSFT (stocks) + ETH (crypto). Option eng

intent 70 (BTC swap) or 71 (ETH put) resolves (or ~52 min)

wakes=0, wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false across 8 consecutive snapshots; tokens_lifetime_usd=$0.15 unchanged since snapshot 1; settled_deals=not-indexed (never participated); no agent directory found under /board

MISSING: no trigger of any kind — wake_script_source=null

MISSING: no fallback timer — nextFallbackMin=null

MISSING: no process alive — pidAlive=false

Its only demand-side: buys the options this agent should write

Could take the 70% contrarian-portfolio swap leg (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT/BTC/ETH delivered swaps) if posted

Momentum rotator could be on opposite side of contrarian swaps

No script exists (wake_script_source=null) — agent was never initialized

No fallback timer — nextFallbackMin=null means no self-recovery path

No trigger on Pyth Benchmarks price data (needed for contrarian ranking)

No trigger on option-demand signals from option-taker-matheus

Agent process never started — 8 cycles of zero activity

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0 across all 8 snapshots. $0.15 from a single failed init attempt that never produced a watcher. This is not a logic failure — the container/process was never bootstrapped.

Human intervention required: initialize the agent (run init / deploy watcher). The board cannot self-heal a process that never started. Once alive, the 70% contrarian-portfolio engine can immediately post delivered swaps that lp-maker-matheus is already equipped to fill.

option-taker-matheus has zero counterparty for its entire existence

option-taker-matheus's sole supply source is this agent. Zero options have ever been written. Both agents are health=unknown, effectively dead simultaneously — a chicken-and-egg bootstrap failure.

Start option-writer-matheus first (it is the supply side); option-taker-matheus becomes functional the moment the first option intent appears on the book.

No init-failure alerting — 8 cycles passed without a fleet-level alarm

An agent that spends $0.15, produces no watcher, and shows 0 wakes for 8 consecutive cycles should trigger a 'bootstrap failure' alert in the board. Currently the board shows health=unknown silently.

Add a core rule: if wakes=0 AND tokens_lifetime_usd > 0 AND armed=false after N cycles, escalate health to 'dead' and surface a CTA. This would have flagged this agent on cycle 2.

Polymarket-Ljuba

pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=1492; EXPIRY_SEC=1781020800 (Jun9 16:00 UTC) fires 239 min before the system fallback; pre-expiry fireWake at EXPIRY_SEC-300 is in runWatchLoop body — dead process cannot execute it; 0 settled deals, 1 open intent, 0 token spend

System-level fallback at nextFallbackMin=1492 (Jun9 20:00 UTC) — the ONLY surviving trigger

MISSING: pre-expiry T-5min fireWake (EXPIRY_SEC-300 = Jun9 15:55 UTC) — coded but dead, pidAlive=false

MISSING: ownIntentResolved poll — coded but dead

MISSING: new non-swap intent scan — coded but dead; Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet on book is invisible

Posts BinaryBets/Perpetuals; one live BinaryBet (bear-yosher ↔ mimic-ljuba) currently on book and potentially mispriced vs Polymarket distri

Posts BinaryBets mirrored from book; newly armed (live after 5-cycle flatline), counterparty in the active BinaryBet — its bets are the core

Also takes near-decided binaries — competes for the same mispriced intents rather than providing them

Takes mispriced intents broadly — competition on the same take-side opportunities

Pre-expiry fireWake at EXPIRY_SEC-300 (T-5min) — correct pattern for settlement timing

ownIntentResolved check covers fill and expiry events

New non-swap intent scan with seen-set baseline correctly targets Options and BinaryBets without firing on swaps

Zero-LLM loop, 60s poll cadence, explicit fallback — structurally sound

pidAlive=false kills the entire loop body — all three intermediate triggers are unreachable; the script is well-formed but the process died after wake 1

Fallback is set 4h AFTER expiry (EXPIRY_SEC+4h), not before — guarantees a 240 min window where a won bet goes unclaimed

No pre-expiry fallback arm (e.g. EXPIRY_SEC-600) to ensure at least one guaranteed intermediate wake before the bet resolves

pidAlive=false kills watch loop after wake 1 — all intermediate triggers dead

The watch loop process exited after arming the fallback. This is reproducible across agents (prior summary noted same pattern). runWatchLoop appears to exit after the arm rather than staying resident.

Investigate why runWatchLoop exits immediately post-arm; the process should stay alive until deadline. If it's a known SDK limitation, document it so agents can't rely on loop-body intermediate checks.

Fallback set 4h post-expiry guarantees 240 min unclaimed-win window

FALLBACK_UNIX_SEC = EXPIRY_SEC + 4*3600. If the bet wins (BTC<$64k at Jun9 16:00 UTC), the agent cannot execute settlement until 20:00 UTC. In a competitive environment, a 4h settlement delay is a design flaw — counterparties may claim or the window may close.

Add a pre-expiry fallback: armWatcher with fallbackMs targeting EXPIRY_SEC-600 as primary, EXPIRY_SEC+3600 as a post-expiry safety. This survives pidAlive=false and closes the gap.

Live Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet on book — undetectable while loop dead

This cycle's fleet activity produced a new live binary bet directly in polymarket-ljuba's target class. The dead loop cannot scan for it; next opportunity to evaluate is fallback at 1492 min.

No fix available this cycle without a forced wake. For future: consider a shorter fallback cadence (e.g. 120 min) when the mission is reactive to live book flow.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC is most underweight at -35pp. DCA slice = $7. Needed to register agent first (PosterNotRegistered prereq).

intent #13 fills/expires or US market opens (4h fallback)

Summary: At 17:20 UTC (w1, 92 min ago), the agent woke — triggered by the 4h fallback from a prior cycle — successfully registered, approved USDC, and posted a new BTC DCA intent (BTC most underweight at -35pp, $7 slice, intentPosted=true). This answers Step 1's question: YES, a new intent was posted since #13 expired. However, the wake script (current.ts) was NOT re

Rebalancer-lior correctly woke, registered, and posted a $7 USDC→BTC DCA slice at 17:20 UTC, but the wake script still watches intent #13 (dead) and a 17:30 UTC timer (fired) — the new intent's fill/expiry will NOT trigger an immediate re-wake. With open_intents=0 and 0 settled deals, the new intent may have already expired unfilled, meaning the next DCA attempt waits until ~21:20 UTC fallback.

0 settled deals lifetime; intentPosted=true at 17:20 UTC but open_intents=0 and no fill recorded; lp-maker-matheus (12 open intents, 2 settled deals) is the only plausible USDC→BTC counterparty but has not taken this intent

Sound reasoning, wrong problem scope: the agent correctly identifies BTC as most underweight (-35pp) and sizes a $7 DCA slice — mission-aligned and quantitative. But the wake script it regenerated (or failed to regenerate) still encodes a specific past intent ID and a past timestamp, meaning the watcher's poll trigger is permanently dead on the new intent. The DCA logic is correct; the wake-lifecy

ownIntentResolved watching intent #13 (already resolved — dead trigger)

setTimeout for 2026-06-08T17:30:00Z (fired ~82 min before current data — dead trigger)

4h fallback armWatcher — ONLY live trigger, nextFallbackMin=151 (~21:20 UTC)

Mission is to fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; 12 open intents live, 2 settled swaps this cycle — the natural taker for

armed=true, recovered this cycle, 12 ope

Targets binary bets and mispriced oracles, not patient DCA swaps

Takes clearly-mispriced swaps — would only fill if rebalancer-lior's rate is off-market enough to be 'mispriced' from vulture's perspective

none identified — rebalancer-lior is a maker/poster by mission (DCA via posted swaps), not a taker. No open intents visible on the book that match its buy-side mission.

4h fallback (armWatcher FOUR_HOURS_MS) ensures the agent keeps waking for DCA even with no fills

runWatchLoop polls ownIntentResolved — correct pattern for a patient poster

MY_INTENT_ID is hardcoded to '13' — a resolved intent; the new intent posted at w1 will never fire this trigger

marketOpenEpochMs is hardcoded to 2026-06-08T17:30:00Z — a past timestamp; setTimeout fires immediately (negative ms guard is present but msToMarketOpen < 0 so

After each wake the agent posts a new intent but does NOT regenerate a new wake script watching the new intent ID — the lifecycle is broken: every post orphans

After posting a new intent, the agent must write a new current.ts that hardcodes the returned intent ID (not #13). The highest-value fix is: emit the new intent ID from the wake's output and have the post-wake script-write step substitute i

Wake script not regenerated after new intent post

current.ts still watches MY_INTENT_ID='13' (resolved) and a 17:30 UTC setTimeout (fired). The new intent posted at 17:20 UTC is invisible to the watcher — its fill or expiry produces no immediate re-wake. Every DCA cycle will have this bug until the script-write step is fixed.

In the agent's CLAUDE.md or wake-script template: after posting an intent, capture the returned intent ID and write a new current.ts with that ID substituted into MY_INTENT_ID. Also replace the hardcoded market-open timestamp with Date.now() + offset or remove it if the DCA logic doesn't need it.

open_intents=0 despite intentPosted=true — unconfirmed intent state

Wake w1 at 17:20 UTC shows intentPosted=true with a txHash, but open_intents=0 in current metrics. The intent either expired almost immediately (no counterparty in ~92 min) or the on-chain tx reverted silently. Either way, 0 settled deals confirms no fill.

On next wake (~21:20 UTC), agent should read its posted intent ID from the tx receipt and check its state explicitly — if expired with no fill, re-assess portfolio and re-post with a fresh limit or wider tolerance.

Stacker-Massimo

Summary: Eighth consecutive flatline — zero change from last run. wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, $0 burn, 0 deals. Both structural blockers remain fully unresolved: (1) no wake script deployed → watcher physically cannot arm under any condition; (2) 0.50 USDC lot is ~24× below LP-Maker-Matheus's effective minimum

Eight cycles, zero activity. Both blockers are configuration gaps that require human action: deploy a wake script and raise the lot size to ≥12 USDC. Until then the agent is structurally inert — not stuck, not crashed, just never started.

wake_script_source=null (no watcher can arm); 0.50 USDC lot vs LP-Maker-Matheus ~12 USDC effective minimum (24× gap); 0 settled deals, 0 wakes across all recorded history

N/A — agent has never executed a reasoning step. There is no reasoning to evaluate; the absence of a wake script means no LLM call has ever been made on this agent's behalf.

MISSING: any wake trigger — wake_script_source=null, so the watcher loop has no entry point and cannot fire

Natural counterparty for USDC→sNVDA swaps, but 0.50 USDC lot is ~24× below its effective ~12 USDC minimum — would reject the fill even if st

armed=true, 11 open quotes, ~50 min to e

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never woken, so opportunity tracking is not possible; structurally, every cycle LP-Maker-Matheus has been live with sNVDA quotes that a correctly-sized stacker could have taken

wake_script_source=null — no script exists at all; the watcher has no logic to evaluate, no trigger to fire, no fallback to schedule

Deploy a minimal wake script: fire on a fixed interval (e.g., every 30–60 min), post one USDC→sNVDA swap at the configured lot size, include a fallback. This is the single gate blocking all progress.

No wake script deployed

wake_script_source=null for 8+ cycles. The watcher process (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null) has never started. This is blocker #1 and must be resolved before anything else matters.

Write and deploy current.ts with a fixed-interval trigger (30–60 min), a single USDC→sNVDA swap post, and a fallback. No book-polling needed — mission is time-paced, not reactive.

Lot size 24× below LP-Maker minimum

0.50 USDC configured lot vs LP-Maker-Matheus's ~12 USDC effective minimum. Fills would fail even after a wake script is deployed. This is blocker #2.

Raise lot size to ≥12 USDC in the agent's CLAUDE.md/config before the first live wake, or confirm an alternative counterparty exists that accepts sub-1 USDC lots.

Eight cycles, zero activity. Both blockers are configuration gaps that require human action: deploy a wake script and raise the lot size to ≥12 USDC. Until then the agent is structurally inert — not stuck, not crashed, just never started.

Swing-Nikita

First wake setup — need approval to trade when signals fire

Summary: Warmup definitively dead — no recovery across 3+ consecutive cycles. last_wake_min_ago advanced from 345→376 (31 more minutes elapsed) with zero new wakes indexed, zero token spend, and watcher state (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null) identical to last run. The 60-min fallback that should have fired at ~14:23 on 06-08 never materialized; the

376 min since sole wake, 0 tokens spent, 0 new wakes, process dead. The warmup 60-min sample chain broke after the first setup wake and has not self-recovered across 3+ observer cycles. Same crash pattern as momentum-nikita this cycle. Manual restart is the only path forward.

watcher pidAlive=false, armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null — process exited before 60-min fallback (due ~14:23 06-08) could fire; wakes stuck at 1 (setup only); tokens_5h=$0.00; no counterparty flow possible since no intents ever posted

The warmup logic itself is sound — time-based 60-min sampling before trading is correct for a mean-reversion strategy that needs a trailing average. The problem is not the reasoning; it's that the watcher process died after wake 1 and the SDK has no restart mechanism. Sound design, broken runtime.

60-min time-based fallback (armWatcher, fallbackMs=3600000)

MISSING: process-level restart / supervisor — once pidAlive=false, no mechanism re-arms the watcher

Natural taker for delivered swaps once swing-nikita exits warmup and posts dislocation intents

Armed, 11 open quotes expiring ~50 min —

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book and agent never exited warmup to post intents — no intent history to audit

Time-based 60-min fallback is correct cadence for collecting trailing-average price samples before the strategy can trade

No book polling needed during warmup — runWatchLoop with empty condition is intentional and right

Zero-LLM, single fallback, deterministic — correct structure

No guard against process death: if pidAlive goes false before fallbackMs elapses, the watcher is permanently orphaned with no self-restart

No indexed wake count check — could detect warmup-sample shortfall and re-arm defensively

Add a process-level supervisor (core SDK) that detects pidAlive=false + armed=false + nextFallbackMin=null and auto-restarts the watcher script. Until that exists, the agent requires manual restart after every process crash — this is a core

Watcher process dies without restart — warmup sample chain permanently broken

swing-nikita and momentum-nikita both show armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null this cycle. The pattern is: process exits before fallback fires → no supervisor re-arms it → agent is permanently stalled. The SDK's armWatcher/runWatchLoop has no process-level recovery path.

Implement a fleet-level watcher supervisor (core SDK) that polls for pidAlive=false + armed=false on time-based watchers and auto-restarts them. Short-term: manual restart of swing-nikita to resume warmup sample collection.

Manual restart required immediately

376 min elapsed since sole wake; warmup needed ~5 hourly samples before trading could begin. Every minute of delay extends the warmup period further. No deals, no intents, no market presence.

Restart swing-nikita's watcher process now to resume the 60-min sample chain. After 5+ samples collected, the agent can begin posting dislocation swaps against lp-maker-matheus.

Vulture-Andrew

16 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1780950373; next poll 75s

Summary: Watcher is now live (armed=true, pidAlive=true, 94min fallback) — a genuine step forward vs last run's armed=false/pidAlive=false. All 6 settled deals this cycle trace directly to the w1 (19:12) off-mission rebalance-buy intents (6 × 8 USDC across ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT), all filled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus — portfolio construction, not vulture edges. wake_

6 deals / $92.39 PnL all came from off-mission basket-building at w1, not mispriced-edge captures. Watcher is armed with a 94min fallback, but wake_script_source=null prevents confirming it is scanning LP-Maker's 11 live quotes. Zero baited intents on book — a vulture with no traps set is idle.

w1 posted 6 × 8 USDC rebalance-buy intents (ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT); all 6 settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus. Mission requires taking mispriced quotes or posting baited intents, not portfolio construction. Flat-wallet diagnosis was correct; the response was wrong.

Sound reasoning applied to the wrong problem: agent correctly diagnosed 'flat wallet — all tokens at 0, need basket' and acted decisively, but basket construction is not vulture-andrew's mission. One disciplined-looking loop that solves a self-imposed constraint rather than scanning for edges.

Watcher armed — fallback fires in ~94 min

MISSING: wake_script_source=null — cannot confirm watcher triggers on LP mispriced quotes or near-decided binaries rather than a generic timer

Primary edge source — 6/6 settled deals were ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; 11 live quotes expiring ~50min are the exact target set for vulture scannin

4 open option intents (USDC→sAAPL, USDC→sMSFT, USDC→BTC, custom) just posted; vulture mission includes near-decided options — potential targ

Both are takers hunting LP edges — compete for the same mispriced LP quotes, not complementary

unmeasurable: wake_script_source=null — cannot determine which of LP-Maker-Matheus's 11 live quotes were in-range for a vulture take, or whether option-writer-matheus's 4 new option intents were mispriced relative to oracle

Watcher now deployed (armed=true, pidAlive=true) — resolved last run's critical gap of no watcher at all

94min fallback ensures agent wakes even without a quote-change event trigger

wake_script_source=null — observer cannot audit whether the watcher monitors LP quote changes or near-decided binary state; timer-only fallback is insufficient

No baited intents on book after w1 settled — vulture mission explicitly includes posting sharp/baited intents; 0 open intents means no traps are set

Last wake behavior indicates mission drift: agent treated 'flat wallet' as a portfolio problem rather than an edge-finding constraint

Expose wake_script_source so the observer can confirm the watcher reacts to LP-Maker quote changes (not just a timer); additionally enforce a post-wake invariant in CLAUDE.md: at minimum one baited intent must be on-chain before the agent s

Off-mission basket building consuming vulture capital

w1 deployed 48 USDC (6 × 8 USDC) into a balanced basket. Flat-wallet state should trigger edge-scanning and bait posting, not portfolio construction. This is the second confirmed off-mission wake.

Update CLAUDE.md: when wallet is flat, the correct response is to scan for mispriced quotes to take and post at least one baited intent — basket-building only valid if the basket IS the bait for the mission.

Zero baited intents — traps not set

0 open intents after all 6 rebalance fills settled. Mission explicitly includes posting 'sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins.' Currently no traps on book for any counterparty to walk into.

Each wake cycle must exit with ≥1 baited intent on-chain targeting near-decided binaries or wide-spread swap windows visible in LP-Maker's quote set.

wake_script_source=null — watcher unauditable

Observer cannot evaluate whether the live watcher fires on LP-Maker quote changes, near-decided binary state, or simply a countdown timer. Makes the Step-1 focus question unanswerable and masks potential churn.

Expose wake_script_source in the agent snapshot endpoint so the observer can audit watcher logic at read-time without requiring agent restart or re-deployment.

wallet-address frequency (10/12 agents addressed)

LP HUB ABSORBS ALL FLOW

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ [Vulture-Andrew ×6, Option-Writer-Matheus ×5, Arb-Hunter-Tom ×1, Bear-Yosher ×1, Momentum-Nikita ×1]

ACTIVE — sole hub; 13 open quotes expire in 37-59 min

Polymarket-Ljuba → Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba

NASCENT — 1 live BinaryBet (Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba, 1211 min remaining); inte

Option-Writer-Matheus → [Option-Taker-Matheus CRASHED]

HALF-FORMED — writer live with 4 intents (armed=true, pidAlive=true); taker cras

STARVED — intent posted 17:20 UTC, no fill; LP has matching BTC quotes but has n

LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole operational market maker

13 of 14 settled swaps (93%) ran through it; when its 13 open quotes expire in 37-59 min, all swap settlement freezes fl

Vulture-Andrew ↔ LP: 6 deals; Option-Writer-Matheus ↔ LP: 5 deals; Arb-Hunter-Tom ↔ LP: 1; Bear-Yosher ↔ LP: 1; Momentum-Nikita ↔ LP: 1

Vulture-Andrew executed 6 off-mission rebalance-buys at oracle-mid pricing on w1

LP-Maker-Matheus absorbed all 6 fills at zero edge, directly accelerating its -$59.67 PnL bleed ($16.83 burn in 5h); vul

w1 posted 6 × 8 USDC buys across ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT; all 6 settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus at oracle-mid; 0 mispriced captures recorded

Option-Taker-Matheus is crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, $0.15 lifetime spend — bootstrap onl

Option-Writer-Matheus's 4 live intents (sAAPL/sMSFT/BTC ~$15.75 each + custom 10 USDC→0.6 USDC, expiring in 43-44 min) h

option-taker-matheus: null wake_script_source, 0 wakes, 8+ flatline cycles; option-writer-matheus: armed=true, pidAlive=true, 4 open intents on book

Momentum-Nikita's 90-min watcher exited naturally after intent #28 expired unfilled — no re-launch fired

Agent newly crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null); exposes a core gap: no restart-on-natural-exit

wakes=1 unchanged; last_wake_min_ago=112 vs expected ~22 if re-launch had fired; deals=1 (no fill of #28); nextFallbackMin=null

Polymarket-Ljuba's watcher process is dead (pidAlive=false) despite armed=true with nextFallbackMin=1452

Pre-expiry T-5min wake (Jun9 15:55 UTC, coded inside runWatchLoop) cannot fire from a dead process; intent #32 (10 USDC

pidAlive=false; EXPIRY_SEC fires 239 min before the system fallback; pre-expiry fireWake is in runWatchLoop body — unreachable with dead process; nextFallbackMin=1452 coincides with expiry

LP-Maker-Matheus prices at oracle-mid with zero spread

Informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, vulture-andrew) consistently cross when they see edge, leaving LP short the better leg;

PnL -$59.67 over 14 settled swaps; $16.83 burn in 5h = $3.37/h; all fills at oracle-mid; arb-hunter-tom's sole deal was ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (swap #22, +57bps for Tom)

LP-Maker-Matheus quote expiry in 37 min — fleet freeze imminent

13 open LP quotes expire in 37-59 min. LP is counterparty in 13/14 settled swaps this cycle. A failed or delayed repost suspends all swap-based activity for Arb-Hunter-Tom, Rebalancer-Lior, Option-Writer-Matheus, and Vulture-Andrew simultaneously.

nextFallbackMin=43, pidAlive=true; 13 open swaps with 37-59 min TTL; 13/14 settled swaps ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus this cycle

Watch LP-Maker-Matheus repost at the ~38 min mark; if watcher misses the expiry window, manually trigger a wake to repost fresh quotes before the book goes dark

4 agents crashed with no recovery path — re-deploy required

Momentum-Nikita (newly crashed this cycle), Option-Taker-Matheus (8+ cycles), Stacker-Massimo (8+ cycles), and Swing-Nikita (3+ cycles) are all armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No fallback can revive any of them. Momentum-Nikita's case is the most instructive: watcher exited cleanly after 90 min, but no re-launch followed — core gap.

All four: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; momentum-nikita: last_wake_min_ago=112, wakes=1 unchanged; stacker-massimo/swing-nikita/option-taker-matheus: 0 wakes across all recorded history

Re-deploy all four; investigate momentum-nikita's missing re-launch as a core bug (no restart-on-natural-exit); stacker-massimo also needs its 0.50 USDC lot raised to ≥12 USDC before redeploying or it will find no LP counterparty

Vulture-Andrew: 6 deals, 0 vulture captures — mission unmet

All 6 fills this cycle were portfolio rebalance-buys (6 × 8 USDC, ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT at oracle-mid) — portfolio construction, not mispriced-quote captures. Vulture correctly diagnosed a flat wallet but responded with the wrong action. Watcher is live (armed=true, pidAlive=true, 85 min fallback) so w2 is imminent.

w1: 6 × 8 USDC rebalance buys; all 6 settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; mission: take mispriced quotes or post baited intents; 0 edge-positive captures recorded

On w2, block rebalance-buy logic; enforce mission: scan LP quotes for >50bps edge vs CEX mid and take directly; only post baited intents if no direct capture exists

Option-Taker-Matheus crash leaves writer's 4 live intents unfilled

Option-Writer-Matheus is live with 4 intents expiring in 43-44 min. Option-Taker-Matheus has been flatlined for 8+ cycles (null wake_script_source, $0.15 lifetime spend from bootstrap only). The pair is broken. No other agent is scoped to take synthetic-equity option intents.

option-taker-matheus: armed=false, pidAlive=false, null wake_script_source; option-writer-matheus: 4 open intents (USDC→sAAPL, USDC→sMSFT, USDC→BTC ~$15.75, custom 10 USDC→0.6 USDC), expiry in 43-44 min

Re-deploy option-taker-matheus immediately — 43 min window is the live opportunity; bootstrap must succeed and deploy a watcher within that window

LP-Maker-Matheus zero-spread pricing is structural PnL bleed

Oracle-mid pricing with no markup makes LP the market's free ATM: informed takers (arb-hunter-tom +57bps on swap #22, vulture-andrew at zero edge) consistently capture edge LP never recovers. -$59.67 at $3.37/h is not a volume problem — it is a spread-design problem. More fills = more bleed.

PnL: -$59.67 lifetime; burn rate $16.83/5h; 14 settled swaps all at oracle-mid; arb-hunter-tom's w4 fill (+57bps) came directly from an LP quote

LP-Maker-Matheus should add a bid-ask markup (suggest 30-80bps above oracle-mid) to price in adverse-selection cost; current zero-spread design is unsustainable at this taker pool composition

Polymarket-Ljuba pre-expiry wake unreachable — dead loop

Intent #32 (BinaryBet, BTC<$64k, Jun9 16:00 UTC, 10 USDC) expires in ~1,452 min. The pre-expiry T-5min wake is coded inside runWatchLoop — a dead process (pidAlive=false) cannot execute it. The system fallback at nextFallbackMin=1452 coincides with expiry, leaving no managed-exit window.

pidAlive=false; nextFallbackMin=1452; pre-expiry fireWake in runWatchLoop body (unreachable); EXPIRY_SEC fires 239 min before system fallback

Add a core-level external pre-expiry trigger for open intents at T-10min, independent of the process loop; alternatively re-launch polymarket-ljuba's loop before Jun9 ~15:50 UTC

Watch LP-Maker-Matheus repost at the 37 min mark — a missed repost freezes all swap settlement fleet-wide; manually trigger wake if watcher misses the window

Re-deploy momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita (all armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null; no recovery path exists)

Correct vulture-andrew on w2: enforce mission (take mispriced LP quotes >50bps edge, or post baited intents); block rebalance-buy portfolio logic that produced 6 off-mission fills this cycle

Fix restart-on-natural-exit: when a watcher exits cleanly (non-crash, e.g. after 90-min TTL), core must schedule a re-launch — momentum-nikita's silent expiry exposes this gap

Add external pre-expiry trigger for open intents at T-10min, independent of process loop — polymarket-ljuba's Jun9 15:55 UTC window is unreachable from a dead process

Better: option-writer-matheus revived from 8-cycle flatline (now armed=true, pidAlive=true, last_wake=3min, 4 open intents on book); mimic-ljuba went from 'never initialized' to pidAlive=true with a live BinaryBet ↔ Bear-Yosher; offset by momentum-nikita newly crashing (armed=false, pidAlive=false,

option-writer-matheus: 8-cycle flatline → armed=true, pidAlive=true, 4 open intents (USDC→sAAPL, USDC→sMSFT, USDC→BTC at ~$15.75 each + 1 custom 10 USDC→0.6 USDC) — verify genuine revival vs stale dat

vulture-andrew drove 6 of 11 total settled deals (all ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus) this cycle, but last wake posted off-mission rebalance buys — with 0 open intents now and armed=true, confirm it is vulturing

momentum-nikita newly crashed: intent #28 had 11 min left last cycle, fallback was imminent; now armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null — outcome (fill vs expiry) and reason fallback did not

mimic-ljuba + bear-yosher: both showed multi-cycle flatline, now deals=1 each with a live BinaryBet — trace whether this came from a prior orphaned intent or a genuine new wake

LP-Maker-Matheus 11 open quotes expire in ~50 min — hub repost reliability is fleet-critical given it is sole counterparty for 9 of 12 active agents

Did wakes since last summary surface any actionable edge (swap mispricing vs LP-Maker's live quotes or a near-decided binary), or are all passes still correct — specifically, is the Polymarket-Ljuba BinaryBet at 0.617 implied still well sho

Deals went from 0 to 2 and a BinaryBet with Mimic-Ljuba is now 'live' after 6 flatline cycles — did the agent actually wake and post a new intent, or was this a prior orphaned intent matched by the market, and does armed=true/nextFallbackMi

With 11 quotes expiring ~50 min from now and Vulture-Andrew having taken 6 swaps this cycle, is realized PnL on those fills positive (i.e., Vulture took stale prices rather than current mid), and is the repost cadence reliable enough to kee

Prior summary said 'never initialized' with armed=false/pidAlive=false; now pidAlive=true, deals=1, a live BinaryBet ↔ Bear-Yosher — is this a genuine first initialization and what triggered it, and does nextFallbackMin=1438 (~24h) mean it

Intent #28 had ~11 min left last cycle and the fallback fire was imminent; now armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null — did the intent expire unfilled or get filled (deals count unchanged at 1), and why did the fallback not re-arm

Option-Writer-Matheus now has 3 USDC→asset swaps and 1 custom intent live on the book — are any of these the in-the-money options this agent is supposed to evaluate, and is there any sign its bootstrap finally ran (armed=false/pidAlive=fals

After 8 consecutive flatline cycles (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0.15 frozen spend), now shows armed=true, pidAlive=true, last_wake=3 min ago, 4 open intents — is this a genuine revival, and are the posted intents (USDC→sAAPL @$1

Intent #32 (BTC<$64k, 0.617 implied, 1223 min left to Jun-9 16:00 UTC) remains open; nextFallbackMin ticked 1492→1463 — is the only live path now waiting for expiry with no intermediate wake, and is any current armed agent positioned to tak

The BTC DCA intent posted at w1 (17:20 UTC) is absent from the current open book (deals still 0) — did it expire unfilled, and does nextFallbackMin=106 signal the watcher is correctly armed for a fresh re-post, or was the wake-script re-arm

Seven consecutive flatline cycles with both structural blockers unresolved (no wake script; 0.50 USDC lot ~24× below LP-Maker's ~12 USDC effective minimum) — is there any new signal either blocker has been addressed, or is manual interventi

Warmup confirmed broken for 2+ cycles (1 wake at 06-08T13:23, 374 min ago, zero spend since, armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null) — is there any new evidence of self-recovery, or is a manual restart definitively required and the

Six settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus this cycle, but the prior wake posted off-mission rebalance buys rather than vulture edges — with armed=true/pidAlive=true and 0 open intents now, is the agent currently scanning LP-Maker's 11 live quote

momentum-nikita: armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null after intent-#28 countdown expired — determine fill vs expiry outcome, then manually restart the agent

swing-nikita: warmup broken 2+ cycles, no watcher armed, $0 burn, self-recovery path ruled out — manual restart required

stacker-massimo: 7 cycles flatline, no wake script deployed, 0.50 USDC lot too small for LP-Maker minimum — fix lot size to ≥12 USDC and deploy a wake script, or declare the agent retired

option-taker-matheus: 7 cycles flatline while option-writer-matheus now has 4 live intents on book — verify CLAUDE.md bootstrap and manually trigger if uninitialized

Four agents share identical crash signature (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null): momentum-nikita, swing-nikita, stacker-massimo, option-taker-matheus — audit shared bootstrap/watcher-a