account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary take clears the bar; no swap edge ≥10bps; best new intents are flat or taker-negative. Binary drought: 184 con

new crypto intent >2113, binary ≤30min in money, or 30min fallback

[agent-entrypoint] wake failed: launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap) — output above

Summary: Deal 32 confirmed: SSV swap #182 settled at w283 (08:23 today, +21bps vs CEX $2.363 vs implied $2.358), answering last run's open question — the swap-edge path still works. Binary drought extends to ≥195 consecutive wakes (w280–w287 all blocked: stock-only or CEX uniformly below oracle on crypto). Agent is NOW BROKEN: wakes_failing=true, 'launch-wake exited

Deal 32 (SSV swap #182, +21bps edge) closed at w283 — swap-take path confirmed live pre-break. Post-w287 the agent is broken: 'launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)', tokens_5h_usd=0 corroborates no LLM calls completing. Armed watcher will keep misfiring fallbacks until the entrypoint binary is fixed.

launch-wake exited 1; tokens_5h_usd=0 (zero LLM calls since break); watcher PID alive but all wake executions abort before LLM; Step-1 fallback fired (was 4 min out) and re-armed at 30 min — indicating repeated silent failures

Pre-break reasoning was sound and on-mission: deal #182 correctly identified SSV +21bps clearing the 10bps floor (w283); w280–w287 waits correctly diagnosed stock-only binaries and CEX-below-oracle on crypto. Reasoning is not running post-break.

crypto binary ≤30min expiry with CEX taker margin ≥0.5%

18/21 visible settled deals; 10 open intents including SSV swaps that provided w283 edge

2/21 visible deals; arb surfaces overlap on mispriced swaps when vulture posts bait

Binary drought confirmed ≥195 wakes — no CEX-covered crypto binary ≤30min appeared in w280–w287; none missed. SSV +26bps flagged at w282 but unfundable (no USDC); taken at w283 (+21bps, funded). Post-break window (after w287): unmeasurable — wakes not executing.

Binary trigger gate-checks CEX margin ≥0.5% before firing — zero-LLM, no phantom wakes on unfundable bets

wokenBets set prevents re-firing the same expiring binary across poll ticks

Full book scan each tick catches bets resting before watcher armed, not just new arrivals

30-min fallback appropriate: multi-surface taker benefits from periodic full scans when book is quiet

isNewBinaryBet uses i.kind === 'unknown' as BinaryBet proxy — fragile; Trigger-2 already uses the correct i.terms?.template === 'BinaryBet' check

Baseline tick discards first seen-set population: a binary entering its ≤30min window at arm time is delayed up to 60s

Replace isNewBinaryBet's i.kind === 'unknown' with i.terms?.template === 'BinaryBet', matching the Trigger-2 pattern already in the script — removes the fragile kind-field dependency at zero cost.

launch-wake exited 1 — entrypoint binary broken

wakes_failing=true, wake_error='launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)', tokens_5h_usd=0. All wakes abort at process launch before any LLM call. The Step-1 fallback (was 4 min out) fired and re-armed at 30 min — confirming repeated silent failures. Bear-yosher is also crashed (armed=false); momentum

Confirm claude binary / launch-wake script is on PATH in the container. Cross-check whether bear-yosher's crash and this error share the same 'exited 1' signature — if so, treat as one platform regression, not two independent failures.

isNewBinaryBet uses fragile kind==='unknown' check

Trigger-1 binary detection relies on i.kind === 'unknown' while Trigger-2 correctly uses i.terms?.template === 'BinaryBet'. If the SDK normalizes the kind field in a future release, Trigger-1 silently stops firing for new binary bets above HWM.

Change isNewBinaryBet to: return i.terms?.template === 'BinaryBet' && parseInt(i.intentId) > HIGH_WATER;

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

HALT still in effect from wake 57. No aligned takeable bets. Deal 159 not settleable (DealNotResolved). Tech basket over

deal 159 pre-fire (June 15 17:49 UTC) or BTC ±1.5% from $65,424 or 4h fallback

Summary: HALT is still valid (BTC+ETH persistent climb per w57 21:56 UTC June 14). The 5h fallback fired ON SCHEDULE as w58 at 03:04 UTC June 15 (8 min late, normal variance) — HALT confirmed still in effect. Critical new finding: w58 ran successfully (no error) but did NOT re-arm the watcher. Now armed=false, pidAlive=false, 309 min silent (~08:13 UTC current). Deal

This is watcher-dead, not mission-halt confusion. The 5h fallback fired correctly as w58 (03:04 UTC); the agent executed with no error but failed to re-arm a new watcher. Deal 159 expires 17:59 UTC today — the pre-fire settle attempt at 17:49 UTC (in ~9.5h) is now unmonitored unless the watcher is manually restarted.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, 309 min silent post-w58 (03:04 UTC June 15). w58 concluded HALT continues (deal 159 not settleable, no takeable bets, basket over cap) but wrote no new current.ts / did not call armWatcher. The w57 watcher's runWatchLoop exhausted its deadline after the fallback fired; w

Sound on HALT logic — w57 and w58 both correctly applied the mission's >2% persistent-climb halt rule, and the halt posture is appropriate. Solving the right problem (halt fidelity), but the watcher lifecycle management failed: the agent re-checked posture but didn't re-arm, leaving a scheduled critical event (deal 159 pre-fire 17:49 UTC) orphaned.

Date.now() >= DEAL_159_PREFIRE_MS (17:49 UTC June 15) — primary, WAS in the w57 watcher, now dead

5h fallback from armWatcher — fired as w58 03:04 UTC, not replaced

MISSING: after any halt-check wake that concludes HALT continues, agent must re-arm watcher with same primary trigger + new fallback; w58 did not

settled 1 custom live deal together (deal 159 is the locked position); mimic-ljuba is the counterparty whose resolution bear-yosher is waiti

could fill tech-equity swaps (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) once HALT lifts; 140 deals, actively quoting

wrong instrument class for bear-yosher's BinaryBet / swap mission

none measurable during valid HALT; agent is correctly not posting bearish bets or DCA. Upcoming concrete miss: deal-159 settle attempt at 17:49 UTC today — if watcher stays dead, agent won't fire that wake and will forfeit the settlement window.

Time-specific primary trigger (17:49 UTC) is mission-precise — fires exactly when action is needed (deal 159 pre-expiry settle attempt), not on book state

5h fallback for posture re-check is appropriate cadence for a mission-halt: patient, not polling

Zero-LLM watcher loop; clean label; correct HALT-mode scope (no new bets, no DCA, just await expiry)

No self-re-arm after fallback fires: runWatchLoop ends at its deadline after the fallback-triggered wake; the agent at w58 must write a new watcher but didn't

No price-reversion check — watcher is time-only; if BTC/ETH reverts before 17:49 UTC, the agent stays halted until the primary trigger fires (by design but note

After every halt-check wake that concludes HALT continues, write and arm a new current.ts that preserves the DEAL_159_PREFIRE_MS primary trigger and adds a fresh fallback (e.g., 4h) — so the watcher never goes dark between posture checks. T

Watcher not re-armed after fallback-triggered halt-check wake (w58)

w58 (03:04 UTC June 15) ran successfully, concluded HALT continues, but did not write a new current.ts or call armWatcher. The deal-159 pre-fire at 17:49 UTC today is now unmonitored. armed=false, pidAlive=false, 309 min silent.

In bear-yosher's CLAUDE.md / run script: after any halt-check wake concludes HALT continues, always write a new watcher that (a) preserves the DEAL_159_PREFIRE_MS primary trigger and (b) adds a fresh N-hour fallback. Immediate: manually restart the watcher process using the existing w57 current.ts s

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 44th consecutive null cycle — state unchanged from prior 43 runs. watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, 0 settled deals. No wallet funded, no env set, no wake-script committed, no deployment signal of any kind. The IndexBasket LONG-side market has never had a maker — index-take

44th null cycle confirmed: armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback scheduled, no wake-script source. This is not a crash — it is a pre-deployment agent with zero infrastructure in place. No action warranted unless wallet or env changes.

wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes — agent has never been bootstrapped

N/A — agent has never executed; no reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake-script committed, no watcher armed, no fallback scheduled

index-taker's sole mission is to take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-maker would post

also undeployed — armed=false, pidAlive=

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never woken; no intent ever posted for anyone to take

No wake-script exists (wake_script_source=null)

No watcher armed, no fallback, no scheduler entry

Deploy a wake-script that authors one LONG IndexBasket intent per wake (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC), publishes verified contract source to the indexer, and checks for an existing open intent before posting a duplicate.

Agent never deployed — no wake-script, no watcher, no wallet

44 consecutive observer cycles with zero infrastructure. watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null. The IndexBasket LONG market cannot exist without this agent; index-taker is also blocked waiting for it.

Fund wallet, commit wake-script (author/post LONG IndexBasket intent + publish verified source), arm watcher with a patient cadence (hourly fallback). Coordinate with index-taker deployment — both must go live together or the market is still dead.

44th null cycle confirmed: armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback scheduled, no wake-script source. This is not a crash — it is a pre-deployment agent with zero infrastructure in place. No action warranted unless wallet or env changes.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 44th consecutive null cycle — zero change from prior run. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, health=unknown. Index-maker (sole counterparty and only source of LONG IndexBasket intents) remains equally undeployed per fleet roster (health=unknown). The pair form a mutually-dependent dead clu

44 consecutive null cycles. No deployment signal: watcher unset, no process, no script, $0 lifetime spend. Index-maker is also undeployed — even a freshly deployed index-taker would have zero intents to take. Both must launch together.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=0 — agent has never run in this environment

N/A — no wakes, no reasoning to evaluate. Mission is clear (audit-gated SHORT side of IndexBasket), but the agent has never executed it.

MISSING: no watcher deployed — nothing fires

Sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of

Also undeployed (health=unknown, 0 deals

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent undeployed and index-maker (only counterparty) also undeployed, so no IndexBasket intents exist on the book to miss

No wake script exists (wake_script_source=null) — agent is fully undeployed

Deploy index-maker first to produce LONG IndexBasket intents, then deploy index-taker with a watcher that triggers on new IndexBasket intents appearing from index-maker's address

Agent never deployed

44 null cycles, wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0 lifetime tokens. Not a crash — never started.

Deploy index-maker first (it authors the intents); then deploy index-taker. They are mutually dependent — index-taker has nothing to take until index-maker is live.

44 consecutive null cycles. No deployment signal: watcher unset, no process, no script, $0 lifetime spend. Index-maker is also undeployed — even a freshly deployed index-taker would have zero intents to take. Both must launch together.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

ETH bid at parity required immediate cancel (inversion risk); cluster pre-expiry renewal. Oracle-moved ETH/BTC/SSV asks

Summary: sNVDA ask dark through w185 (13+ consecutive wakes); bid #2077 at $203.87 (-60bps) sits in current cluster with 0 sNVDA sellers appearing fleet-wide since last summary — stacker-massimo rotated to sAAPL (deal 180 settled), removing the only plausible restock source. SSV inversion pattern evolved: after 4th bid inversion in ~10 wakes (w182, oracle -42bps), LP

LP is the fleet's primary liquidity hub (140 settled deals, 13/16 recent deals through it), operating correctly. sNVDA ask drought is structural at 13+ wakes with no fleet-wide sNVDA seller — bid #2077 at $203.87 is posting correctly but unreachable. SSV ask guard at +35bps is too tight for 42bps oracle swings: w184b adverse fill confirms it; guard should be ≥60bps. Realized PnL -$10.23 driven by SSV spread losses, not a strategy failure.

sNVDA ask dark 13+ wakes; bid #2077 at $203.87 open, 0 fills; stacker-massimo (sole sNVDA taker) rotated to sAAPL at deal 180; no other fleet agent has posted sNVDA to sell. SSV adverse fill (w184b, ~$0.003) is maker-mispriced secondary issue: ask guard +35bps < oracle move of 42bps.

Sound and on-mission. LP correctly tracks oracle drift per wake, cancels inverted bids/asks proactively, and sequences dedup/cancel/repost hygiene. SSV asymmetric widening (bid -92bps, ask +35bps) is the right adaptive response to a volatile oracle, though the ask guard remains too tight. The w181 concurrent-wake duplicate (#2019) required manual cleanup (19 TXs combined), which is overhead — but

Prefire 7min before cluster expiry (03:33 UTC → cluster #2071-#2079 expire 03:40 UTC)

New fillable swap intent (skips own address + NOISY 0x64Aa poster)

MISSING: SSV ask guard (+35bps = 2.368) is narrower than observed oracle move (+42bps in w181); ask will be picked off again before next wake fires

Most frequent taker (≥12 of 41 recent deals); arbitrages oracle lag on LP's tight quotes

Regular sAAPL/sNVDA taker; rotated to sAAPL at deal 180 — still active taker for sAAPL leg

Takes LP swaps for rebalancing (5 recent deals); could theoretically sell sNVDA if overweight

Takes LP swaps opportunistically (3 recent deals)

Occasional taker (2 recent deals, Momentum-Nikita); fires on strong movers only

Could sell sNVDA back to LP if overweight — only known potential restock path; fallback at 687min out

None identifiable — LP is the maker, takers come to it. sNVDA restock would require taking a fleet agent's sNVDA sell intent, but none exists. LP cannot create sNVDA inventory from USDC alone without a counterparty.

Prefire 7min before cluster expiry is correct — prevents gap where all 8 intents expire simultaneously and book goes dark

Oracle guards cover all 6 instruments and fire on both bid and ask inversion — correctly reactive to the exact events causing losses

New-swap watcher with NOISY filter (0x64Aa) and MY_ADDR exclusion is well-scoped — catches real taker flow without self-triggering

90min fallback is appropriate for a market maker that must stay live; 65min remaining is within normal range

No sub-minute polling; watcher is event-driven and CPU-cheap

SSV ask guard ETH_HI=2.368 (+35bps vs $2.36) is too tight: w184b proved oracle can move 42bps causing adverse fill before next wake fires

Concurrent wake prevention: w181 produced duplicate ETH ask #2019 requiring manual cleanup (19 TXs combined overhead); PID lock may not be working under all rac

Widen SSV_HI from 2.368 (+35bps) to 2.374 (+60bps) in the next wake script — oracle has demonstrated 42bps single-period moves, and the +35bps ask guard will be breached again causing another adverse fill before the inversion trigger fires.

sNVDA ask dark 13+ wakes — no fleet-wide seller exists

LP bid #2077 at $203.87 (-60bps) is structurally correct but unreachable: stacker-massimo (sole repeat sNVDA taker) rotated to sAAPL, and no other fleet agent holds sNVDA inventory to sell. The -60bps off-hours bid is already generous; the drought is a supply-side fleet gap, not LP pricing.

Fleet-level: either activate an agent that holds sNVDA and can sell (rebalancer-lior if overweight), or configure option-writer-matheus to post sNVDA sell intents post-rebalance. LP cannot self-resolve this.

SSV ask guard too tight for oracle volatility (+35bps < 42bps oracle move)

w184b: SSV ask #2072 adversely filled after oracle surged past +35bps guard, loss ~$0.003. Current SSV_HI=2.368 (+35bps vs $2.36). w181 and w182 both showed oracle moves of 42bps in single periods. At +35bps, ask will be picked off again before next inversion guard fires.

Set SSV_HI ≥ 2.374 (+60bps) in next wake script to match observed oracle swing magnitude; accept slightly worse fill rate in exchange for eliminating adverse picks.

Concurrent wake producing duplicate intents (w181 duplicate ETH ask #2019)

w181+manual required cancelling #2019 (dup ETH ask), adding 19 TXs combined for what should have been a single clean cycle. Concurrent wake w167-172 interference pattern (flagged on vulture-andrew) appears to be affecting LP too.

Verify PID lock in wake-watch.js is enforced before the main wake loop executes; add a startup guard that aborts if current.pid matches a live process before posting any intents.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

No BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge available. Edge floor 3pp unmet on entire visible board (24 swaps off-mission, 1 binar

new BinaryBet appears (crypto 24/7) OR Monday 13:30 UTC stock market open (sNVDA #1916 re-assess)

Summary: w109 (06-14T22:31) remains last wake; 269 min of watcher silence, zero new BinaryBets — no missed opportunities in mission scope. Prior summary incorrectly called today Sunday; June 15 2026 is a Monday, so the 15h fallback (nextFallbackMin=629 → ~13:29Z today) correctly targets US equity market open for sNVDA #1916 re-assessment — the hardcoded window works

No BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge has appeared in 269 min; watcher is armed, alive, and will fire at ~13:29Z Monday on market open. BTC put is Options-template — not in mimic-ljuba's mission or wake filter. The drought is bear-yosher's absence, not an agent fault.

bear-yosher crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 307+ min silent) — was a settled-deal counterparty; remaining BinaryBets on book show −65pp / −15pp / −38pp taker edges (all below 3pp floor at w103–w109); zero new BinaryBets posted since w109

Sound and correctly scoped. Edge-floor discipline (≥3pp) applied correctly across 8 consecutive holds; agent is solving the right problem — waiting for favorable BinaryBets rather than chasing negative-edge entries. No churn detected.

new BinaryBet intent appears on book (template=BinaryBet, 60s poll)

15h fallback → ~13:29Z Monday market open (sNVDA #1916 re-assess)

MISSING: day-of-week guard — 15h hardcoded only lands on Monday 13:30Z when armed at ~22:30Z Sunday; any other arm time drifts the window to a closed or irrelev

settled-deal counterparty; posts BinaryBets below-oracle that mimic-ljuba can take

CRASHED — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 3

settled-deal counterparty; posts BinaryBets shaded to Polymarket; mission overlaps on BinaryBet supply

4 lifetime deals, health unknown — not c

posts bait-sell BinaryBets (6 active); mimic-ljuba could take if edge ≥3pp

takes Options not BinaryBets; different template — no counterparty fit

last woke 344 min ago, fallback 99 min o

None in mission scope. BTC put ($64,910 strike, 0.18 USDC, option-writer-matheus) is template=Option — mimic-ljuba's watcher filters for template=BinaryBet only, and its mission does not cover Options. No BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge has been posted since w109.

fires immediately on any new BinaryBet — correct for a copy-trader whose edge evaporates fast

baseline-first logic (skip first read) prevents false fires on pre-existing intents

60s poll cadence reasonable for 24/7 crypto BinaryBets

zero-LLM watcher; fallback correctly targets Monday market open this cycle

15h fallback is hardcoded — only lands on Monday 13:30Z when the watcher happened to be armed at ~22:30Z Sunday; if re-armed mid-week the sNVDA window drifts to

watcher cannot detect bear-yosher coming back online to signal a new supply of BinaryBets directly

Compute the fallback duration dynamically as `msUntilNextMonday1330Z()` rather than hardcoding 15h, so the sNVDA re-assess always fires at the correct session open regardless of when the watcher was last armed.

Hardcoded 15h fallback drifts off Monday 13:30Z if re-armed mid-week

The comment says '~15h → Monday 13:30 UTC' but the fallback is a fixed 15h from arm time. Worked this cycle (armed 06-14T22:31 → fires 06-15T13:31Z). If re-armed any other day/time, sNVDA re-assess fires during a closed equity session or at an unrelated time.

Replace `15 * 60 * 60_000` with a helper that computes milliseconds to next Monday 13:30 UTC from current wall time.

bear-yosher crash starves BinaryBet supply

bear-yosher is the primary BinaryBet issuer mimic-ljuba has historically taken (settled-deal counterparty). With it crashed 307+ min, the BinaryBet book is thin; only vulture-andrew bait-sells and rare polymarket-ljuba posts remain. This is a fleet-level gap, not a mimic-ljuba fault.

Restore bear-yosher; or onboard a second BinaryBet-issuing agent to provide redundant supply.

No BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge has appeared in 269 min; watcher is armed, alive, and will fire at ~13:29Z Monday on market open. BTC put is Options-template — not in mimic-ljuba's mission or wake filter. The drought is bear-yosher's absence, not an agent fault.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Summary: Clock bomb DEFUSED in w44: MARKET_OPEN_MS now correctly computed as new Date("2026-06-15T13:30:00Z").getTime() — ISO string, not a raw epoch literal, so the previously-flagged bad-constant bug cannot fire this cycle. Eight consecutive disciplined holds (w37–w44) on genuinely compressed field (fast ETH-BTC gap 1.06pp, slow 1.47pp, both sub-2pp). Portfolio ATH

The w44 watcher is correct: MARKET_OPEN_MS = new Date("2026-06-15T13:30:00Z").getTime() — ISO string, not a raw ms literal — so the clock bomb is defused this cycle. Fallback fires ~07:21Z (257 min); the single residual risk is the LLM at w45 regressing to a hardcoded epoch constant, which would either fire the US-open trigger immediately on deploy or miss the 13:30Z window entirely.

9 lifetime deals, 8 consecutive holds w37–w44; field compressed with best gap ETH-BTC 1.06pp fast / 1.47pp slow — both below 2pp dual-confirm rule. No infra failure. LP-Maker-Matheus is sole reliable execution venue.

Sound — solving the right problem. Dual-confirm rule (both fast AND slow ≥2pp) is correctly applied each wake; the holds are arithmetically justified by the stated gaps. No churn — each wake appends a new price snapshot T-stamp and a distinct gap reading, confirming the agent is actually polling, not looping on stale data.

crypto gap ≥2pp BTC/ETH/SSV vs dynamic baseline captured first poll of each wake

US market open 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z (correct ISO-string computation, not raw epoch)

8h fallback ~07:21Z Jun 15 (nextFallbackMin=257)

3 of 4 visible recent swaps settled with LP-Maker; primary execution venue for momentum rotations

1 swap settled historically; opportunistic taker on sharp intents if pricing is favorable

none — crypto field was compressed below 2pp threshold across all 8 holds; no qualifying gap materialized. ETH led fast at 1.06pp and SSV led slow at 1.47pp — both legitimately sub-threshold.

MARKET_OPEN_MS = new Date("2026-06-15T13:30:00Z").getTime() — ISO string not raw epoch; directly fixes the previously flagged clock-bomb failure mode

Baseline captured dynamically on first poll each wake (never hardcoded price literals) — correct for a relative-gap momentum signal

Fires on the decision variable (leader-vs-next-best gap) not per-asset absolute return — a 1.5%/−0.8% pair correctly reads as 2.3pp gap

Stocks (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) correctly excluded while US market closed; will re-expand at 13:30Z trigger

90s poll cadence, zero-LLM, armed=true with pid alive — no sub-minute thrash

No explicit inline guard comment warning the w45 LLM to preserve the new Date(ISO_STRING) pattern — regression to a raw epoch literal at w45 is the sole remaini

Add a single comment directly above the MARKET_OPEN_MS line: '// MUST use new Date(ISO_STRING).getTime() — never a raw epoch ms literal; next-wake LLM must preserve this pattern' — and mirror the rule in CLAUDE.md so the constraint survives

w45 clock-bomb regression: LLM may revert MARKET_OPEN_MS to raw epoch literal

w44 correctly uses new Date("2026-06-15T13:30:00Z").getTime(). At w45 (~07:21Z) the LLM rewrites the watcher from scratch. If it regresses to a hardcoded epoch ms (wrong value, or a value already in the past), the 13:30Z US-open trigger either fires immediately on deploy (spurious early wake, LLM bu

Add self-documenting comment above MARKET_OPEN_MS in wake script and a one-liner in CLAUDE.md: 'watcher time triggers must always use new Date(ISO_STRING).getTime() — never raw epoch ms literals.' This makes the constraint explicit for the w45 LLM rather than relying on pattern-by-example inheritanc

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Intent #1924 fails both edge bar criteria: premium 3% of notional exceeds 1-2% threshold; expiry 87min below 4h threshol

Summary: 4th consecutive miss now guaranteed: BTC put (35 min to expiry, $64,910 strike, 0.18 USDC) is live on book; watcher fallback fires in 97 min — watcher will never trigger on it. Since w35 (346 min ago), zero watcher fires; every option entering and exiting the book has been invisible. seenIntentIds seed-on-first-poll in current.ts lines 22-24 is the confirmed

seenIntentIds seed-on-first-poll confirmed root cause of 3+ consecutive misses (ETH call #1993 most recent); BTC put on book NOW expires in 35 min while fallback is 97 min out — 4th miss locked in. One-line fix in current.ts eliminates the blind spot entirely. Agent is structurally healthy and reasons well when it wakes.

current.ts lines 22-24: `if (!seenIntentIds) { seenIntentIds = new Set(auditedOptions.map(...)); return; }` — seeds and skips first poll; 3 confirmed consecutive misses (ETH call #1993); BTC put on book 35 min before expiry with fallback 97 min out = 4th miss guaranteed this cycle

Sound when it wakes — w28-w35 show correct edge-bar discipline: rejected #1600 at 40x theoretical fair value, rejected #1849 at 5% premium with only 1.47h expiry (below 4h bar), correctly accepted #1557 at 0.05% OTM. Reasoning solves the right problem; the bug is upstream — the watcher never hands the LLM pre-existing options to evaluate.

seenIntentIds diff: new audited ETH/BTC option appears AFTER first poll

MISSING: fire on options already visible at watcher-arm time — first-poll seed permanently blinds these

sole confirmed option writer, 26 deals, health ok — writes the ETH/BTC audited options this agent targets

posts sharp intents opportunistically; not a primary option writer but may post matching custom deals

stuck (concurrent wake interference w167

ETH call #1993 (miss 3 — seeded at arm, expired undetected), BTC put on book NOW ~35 min to expiry (miss 4 confirmed — fallback 97 min out, option will have expired). Both are watcher-blind misses, not evaluation rejections.

6h fallback appropriate for a patient selective taker — avoids LLM burn in dead book

60s poll cadence reasonable for option expiry windows

AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH guard + ETH/BTC asset filter are precise and correct

seenIntentIds diff concept is sound in principle — avoids re-waking on stale options repeatedly

First-poll seed-and-return (lines 22-24): initialises seenIntentIds from all currently-visible options then returns without evaluating them — any option on book

Consequence: watcher can only fire for options posted AFTER it arms; pre-existing options are only reached via 6h fallback, by which time short-dated options ha

Initialize seenIntentIds as empty on first poll instead of seeding from current options: change `if (!seenIntentIds) { seenIntentIds = new Set(auditedOptions.map((i: any) => i.intentId)); return; }` to `if (!seenIntentIds) { seenIntentIds =

seenIntentIds seed-on-first-poll blinds watcher to pre-existing options

current.ts lines 22-24 seed seenIntentIds with all currently-visible audited options and immediately return on first poll. Any option already on book when the watcher arms is permanently classified as 'seen' and will never trigger a wake. Confirmed cause of 3 consecutive misses (ETH call #1993 most

Replace `seenIntentIds = new Set(auditedOptions.map((i: any) => i.intentId)); return;` with `seenIntentIds = new Set();` — empty init means the first-poll diff treats all visible options as new and fires the wake immediately if any exist.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Different asset + kind. BTC put tests if zero option demand is specific to ETH calls or market-wide. If BTC put fills, s

BTC put intent 0x0833 reaches acceptBy deadline (~52 min) or 1h fallback

Summary: W22 pivoted to BTC put (intent 0x0833, $9 USDC collateral, $0.18 premium / 2%, strike $64,910 = 1% OTM, 60-min accept window) as a controlled diagnostic probe after 3 ETH call zero-fills (3%→2%→1.5%, w14–w17). Logic: test whether zero option demand is ETH-specific or market-wide. sNVDA buy 2046 (+0.5% oracle, $10 USDC) still open, no fills. PnL now -10.68 US

Agent healthy and reasoning correctly — W22 BTC put (0x0833, 2% premium, $64,910 strike) is a disciplined probe to isolate demand absence (ETH-specific vs market-wide). Pricing is reasonable (2% on 1.5h / 1% OTM matches prior ETH call methodology). However option-taker-matheus is 344 min silent and its fallback (99 min out) will not clear the 35-min window; no other option takers are active. The put will almost certainly expire unfilled — structural counterparty starvation, not a pricing or agent fault.

3 ETH call reprices (intents 1924→1971→1993) all expired unfilled; BTC put 0x0833 posted 27 min ago with 35 min left; option-taker-matheus (sole dedicated option buyer, 5 deals) is 344 min silent; polymarket-ljuba (4 deals, options in scope) status unconfirmed; vulture-andrew (46 deals) takes near-d

Sound and solving the right problem. The pivot to BTC put is explicit hypothesis-testing: 'if BTC put fills, ETH-specific; if not, market-wide demand absence.' The repricing discipline (never raise, only lower until floor) is correct. The probe will likely confirm market-wide absence — that's a useful signal even with zero fill. The agent is not churning or re-deriving; each wake has a distinct lo

ownIntentResolved on BTC put 0x0833 (filled or expired, fires wake immediately)

1h fallback from arming (~35 min remaining, aligns with intent acceptBy window)

Sole dedicated option buyer; 5 deals history; mission explicitly targets ETH/BTC options from other agents

344 min silent, fallback 99 min out — wi

Mission includes valuing Options against Polymarket implied distribution; 4 deals; could assess a BTC put

Status unconfirmed this cycle — no recen

Takes near-decided binaries and clearly mispriced swaps; 1% OTM option at 2% premium is not in its strike zone

Active (46 deals, stuck health) but wron

BTC-down conviction aligns with buying a BTC put; mission includes BinaryBets below oracle

none — option-writer-matheus is the maker; the question is who takes. No measurable missed taking opportunities; the sNVDA buy 2046 is on the book but supply is absent (structural gap confirmed across multiple cycles).

Fires on ownIntentResolved (filled OR expired) — correctly handles both outcomes without polling the book

1h fallback aligns with 60-min accept window; nextFallbackMin=35 correctly reflects ~25 min elapsed since arming

Zero-LLM, zero gas spent watching; no 'book non-empty' trigger

Intent ID hardcoded in padded hex format — precise, no ambiguity

Label says '~52 min' accept deadline but actual remaining window is ~35 min — minor staleness, not a bug

No secondary trigger for sNVDA buy 2046 resolution (open intent running concurrently) — watcher only tracks the BTC put

Add ownIntentResolved check for sNVDA buy 2046 (intent ID 0x07ff / decimal 2047) alongside the BTC put watch — both are live intents and a fill on either should fire the next wake immediately rather than waiting for the 1h fallback.

Option taker coverage gap — BTC put expires unfilled with sole buyer 344 min silent

option-taker-matheus has a 99-min fallback from now; the BTC put 0x0833 expires in ~35 min. There is a structural coverage gap: the only dedicated option buyer cannot catch short-dated options when it's in a long rest cycle. 4 consecutive option intents (1924, 1971, 1993, 0x0833) have found zero tak

Shorten option-taker-matheus fallback interval when options are on book, or add a book-watcher trigger (ownIntentResolved on counterparty intents) so it wakes within the accept window of live options.

bear-yosher crash removes the natural BTC-put taker

bear-yosher's BTC-down conviction made it a natural buyer of BTC puts; it's been crashed 307 min (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 5h fallback apparently misfired ~02:56Z). Its absence narrows the option-taker pool to near zero.

Investigate bear-yosher crash (5h fallback non-fire suggests cron or process issue); restore it to recover BTC-put demand.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Summary: Still resting post-w57 (now 290 min, up from 231 min at last run — 59 min elapsed). Both maker binaries (#1827 sMSFT<$420, #1916 sNVDA>$195 Jun19) remain open and unfilled; no w58 in recent_wakes confirms watcher has not fired. Step-1 focus confirmed again: wake script has ZERO price-drift/oracle-threshold trigger; if sNVDA drifts toward $195, agent will not

ALIVE and correctly resting; watcher armed, no errors. Two maker binaries unfilled at 290 min. The structural risk is the sNVDA>$195 position: 5.2% buffer (strike $195, price $205.10 at w57) erodes silently until Jun19 expiry or 24h fallback — the wake script has no oracle trigger to intervene if NVDA sells off. BTC put miss is likely baseline-blindness (pre-existing book item invisible to 'new intents only' watcher).

Intents #1827 and #1916 are maker posts awaiting takers; no counterparty has filled in 290 min. Bear-yosher (crashed) and arb-hunter-tom (stuck) — the most likely takers of near-decided binaries — are both offline. Stacker-massimo and momentum-nikita could theoretically take sNVDA>$195 if it aligned

Sound and on-mission. w50–w55 shows disciplined sAAPL exit sequencing (oracle-mid → 1% discount) after horizon expiry; w56 cleanly rotated freed capital into sMSFT<$420 binary; w57 correctly selected sNVDA>$195 as the 'strongest new candidate outside existing sMSFT position' with a quantified 5.2% buffer and explicit Polymarket-implied edge. No churn. However, the agent is solving the right proble

Own intent #1827 or #1916 resolves (fill or expiry)

New BinaryBet or Option intent appears on book (post-w57 baseline)

24h fallback (~22:15 UTC Jun15, 1152 min out)

MISSING: oracle price-drift threshold (e.g. sNVDA < $200 → wake and reassess/cancel #1916)

MISSING: pre-existing book items at wake-start (baseline-blindness — BTC put likely missed this cycle)

Targets near-decided binaries; sMSFT<$420 or sNVDA>$195 at ~78–80% implied could qualify if arb-hunter sees edge vs oracle

Takes clearly mispriced intents; would need to assess polymarket-ljuba's binary as mispriced in its favor

ok but concurrent-wake interference drai

Directly posts BinaryBets BELOW on equities — would be the natural taker of sNVDA>$195 if bearish on NVDA

BTC put ($64,910 strike, 0.18 USDC, ~35 min left at Step-1 time): likely a pre-existing book item when w57 established the `seen` baseline — invisible to `newMatches`. The watcher's 'new intents only' design means any option/binary on the book at wake-start is permanently blind for this wake cycle. Unmeasurable without confirming when the put was posted vs when w57 ran (22:14 UTC Jun14), but the t

Fires on own intent resolution (fill or expiry) — correct reactive trigger for maker position

Fires on ANY new BinaryBet or Option appearing — aligns with taker-of-opportunity mission

24h fallback is appropriate for a patient maker waiting on binary fills

Zero-LLM, has fallback, PID-tracked — structurally sound

No oracle price-drift trigger: if sNVDA falls from $205.10 toward $195 (the strike), the agent won't wake until the 24h fallback fires or the intent resolves —

Baseline-blindness: intents already on the book at wake-start are excluded from `newMatches` — the BTC put (and any other pre-existing opportunity) is permanent

No expiry-proximity trigger: as Jun19 approaches, no increasing urgency or reduced-threshold-to-cancel logic

Add an oracle price-drift check inside the watch loop: if sNVDA oracle price < (strike + buffer_pct * strike) — e.g. < $199 (2% above $195) — call fireWake('sNVDA drifting toward strike, reassess #1916'). This is the single highest-value ch

No price-drift oracle trigger on open maker binaries

wake script watches for intent resolution and new book items, but has no oracle-threshold guard. sNVDA>$195 Jun19 sits 5.2% above strike ($205.10 → $195) with 4+ days to expiry. A 5% sell-off in NVDA brings the binary to near-ATM with no agent wake. The 24h fallback (1152 min out) is the only safety

In the runWatchLoop body, fetch oracle price for sNVDA each iteration; if price < ~$199 (configurable, ~2% above strike), call fireWake('sNVDA approaching strike $195 — reassess #1916'). Same pattern should apply to sMSFT if price drifts toward $420.

Baseline-blindness: pre-existing book items invisible for full wake cycle

seen is seeded from all current open intents at the start of the watch loop. Any BinaryBet or Option already on the book (e.g. BTC put posted before 22:14 UTC Jun14) is permanently excluded from newMatches for the entire 24h cycle. The agent is blind to ≥1 likely opportunity.

On first loop iteration, instead of skipping with 'return', score all current BinaryBets/Options against the Polymarket valuation cache (or a lightweight oracle check) and fireWake if any pass MIN_EDGE. Alternatively, keep the skip-first-baseline logic but reduce fallback to 4–6h so re-evaluation ha

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: The w48 'correction' (06-16→06-15) was itself an error: June 15 2026 is Sunday, not Monday; the original 06-16 date was correct. The watcher is now armed to fire at 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z (today, Sunday, ~685 min out) and fallback at ~14:30Z Sunday — both on a non-trading day. The agent's only defense is that the stock oracle will likely be stale on Sunday (as

Watcher fires at 13:30Z today (Sunday 06-15) and fallback at ~14:30Z Sunday — stock market closed both times. The sMSFT trim→BTC DCA plan (sMSFT +1.52pp, BTC -1.65pp) cannot execute until Monday 06-16T13:30Z. The agent's own w48 'correction' introduced this bug (06-16 was correct; 06-15 is Sunday). Best case: oracle stale again → agent defers, re-arms a third time; worst case: stale oracle data leaks into a bad fill.

current.ts hardcodes MARKET_OPEN_MS = new Date('2026-06-15T13:30:00Z') with comment '// Monday US stock market open' — but 2026-06-15 is Sunday. w48 log: 'fixed watcher date 2026-06-16→2026-06-15' was itself wrong. No day-of-week guard in script. w47 confirms stock oracle is stale on Sundays → plan

w48 reasoning was disciplined but solved the wrong problem: it correctly identified the prior watcher date was wrong but miscalculated which date is 'Monday', replacing a correct 06-16 with an incorrect 06-15. The plan itself (trim sMSFT, DCA BTC) is on-mission and sound; the execution timing is wrong for the second consecutive cycle.

MARKET_OPEN_MS >= Date.now() → fires at 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z (Sunday, ~685 min out)

Fallback armWatcher fires at ~2026-06-15T14:30:00Z (Sunday, ~745 min out)

MISSING: day-of-week guard (dow===0 || dow===6 → error/re-arm to next weekday)

Primary swap hub, 13/16 recent deals; handles sMSFT→USDC and USDC→BTC at oracle mid — exactly what this plan needs

Accumulates sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT asks but is a buyer not seller; unlikely to be the taker for a sMSFT sell intent

Fades dislocations on crypto side; could intersect on BTC buy leg if dislocation aligns

None attributable to the agent — sMSFT trim requires stock oracle live (weekday); BTC leg requires USDC from that trim first. No resting asks within budget noted since w45 (BTC fill). Structural: plan is blocked on calendar, not book depth.

5-min poll cadence is appropriate for a time-triggered patient DCA agent

Fallback at T+60min is a reasonable safety net

FALLBACK_MS computed dynamically at startup (won't go negative for a fresh launch)

Zero-LLM watcher, can't fire on 'book non-empty'

MARKET_OPEN_MS = '2026-06-15T13:30:00Z' is Sunday — hardcoded wrong date from w48 error

No day-of-week guard: script will fire and agent will wake into a closed market

Comment says 'Monday' but the date resolves to Sunday — internal contradiction that obscured the bug

No UTC day check at startup to catch weekend dates before arming

Correct MARKET_OPEN_MS to '2026-06-16T13:30:00Z' (actual Monday) and add a startup guard: `const d = new Date(MARKET_OPEN_MS); if (d.getUTCDay() === 0 || d.getUTCDay() === 6) throw new Error('MARKET_OPEN_MS is a weekend — fix the date');` —

MARKET_OPEN_MS hardcoded to Sunday 2026-06-15 — watcher fires into closed market

current.ts line 8: `new Date('2026-06-15T13:30:00Z')` resolves to Sunday. US equity oracle will be stale (confirmed by w47 pattern). The sMSFT→USDC→BTC plan cannot execute. Agent will wake, find no oracle, defer again, and need a third re-arm. Each missed cycle costs 1 day of slippage on the BTC gap

Re-launch watcher with MARKET_OPEN_MS = '2026-06-16T13:30:00Z' and FALLBACK_MS targeting 2026-06-16T14:30:00Z. Add UTC day guard at startup.

No day-of-week guard in watcher — structural blind spot to weekend dates

The w48 error (misidentifying Sunday as Monday) would have been caught immediately if the script validated `getUTCDay() !== 0 && !== 6` before arming. This is the second consecutive cycle where the watcher fires on a non-trading day (w47 also a Sunday no-trade).

Add weekend check to current.ts startup; agent CLAUDE.md should note 'stock oracle unavailable weekends — watcher must target weekday timestamps.'

Stacker-Massimo

Taker-led tech-equity accumulator: take resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle, 24/7, ~10 USDC lots; post own bid at oracle+0.5% only when nothing is takeable. Accumulate until 100 USDC deployed; never sell.

Nothing takeable this wake; mission requires posting own bid at oracle×1.005 when no resting ask qualifies.

bid 2111 fill/expiry | new sNVDA/sAAPL sell | sAAPL oracle drift >0.5% | 45-min fallback

0 sNVDA asks fleet-wide across all wakes; LP-Maker (12 USDC bid) and option-writer (intent #1994, 10 USDC bid) are competitors not suppliers; deal 180 came from sAAPL rotation, not sNVDA relief; 4 of 7 lifetime deals trace to LP-Maker as counterparty

New sNVDA sell-side swap (posterGives=sNVDA)

New sAAPL sell-side swap (posterGives=sAAPL)

45-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=44 at snapshot)

MISSING: sMSFT sell-side — mission includes sMSFT but isStockSell filter omits it

4 of 7 settled deals; primary historical fill for sNVDA/sAAPL swaps; will post sAAPL asks when inventory rebalances

1 settled deal; posts stock asks when writing covered calls, but intent #1994 is a sNVDA buy not a sell

6 open intents confirmed as sMSFT/sAAPL/BTC/ETH/SSV — none are stock-sell intents stacker can take

isStockSell filter gates on posterGives role — correctly excludes buy-side USDC→sNVDA intents from competitors (LP-Maker, option-writer) that would otherwise tr

Watches both sNVDA and sAAPL simultaneously — covers the rotation target without requiring a new watcher post-pivot

45-min fallback is appropriately patient for a thin equity book

Zero LLM in watcher loop; deterministic intent-filter pattern with explicit baseline-establishment guard

sMSFT absent from isStockSell filter — a sMSFT ask appearing on-book will not trigger a wake, despite sMSFT being a named accumulation target in the mission

sMSFT omitted from wake-script sell-filter

isStockSell checks only sNVDA and sAAPL. A sMSFT ask posted on-chain will not fire a wake; the agent will miss it until the 45-min fallback, which is too slow for a taker-first strategy.

In current.ts isStockSell: change `l.symbol === 'sNVDA' || l.symbol === 'sAAPL'` to include `|| l.symbol === 'sMSFT'`.

sNVDA structural drought: 3 buyers, 0 sellers, no relief in sight

stacker-massimo, LP-Maker (12 USDC bid), and option-writer (intent #1994, 10 USDC bid) all sit on the sNVDA demand side with zero ask supply across all 54 wakes. Combined demand-side pressure is ~32 USDC with no counterparty. The only historic sNVDA asks came from LP-Maker during rebalance cycles —

Fleet-level: configure LP-Maker to post periodic sNVDA asks when its sNVDA holding exceeds a threshold, or seed a new agent with sNVDA inventory to sell down. Without a supply-side agent, the 3-buyer cluster will idle indefinitely.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: Holdings still 44.2 USDC + 0.06888 sAAPL + 0.178 sNVDA; w34–w41 = 8 consecutive no-ops (Sunday stock closure + no crypto buy-dip ≥1.5%; zero crypto inventory blocks all sell-strength). CRITICAL script bug confirmed: MARKET_OPEN_MS = 1781530200×1000 = 2026-06-15T13:30Z (Sunday — markets closed), not Monday June 16. The time trigger fires in ~625 min carrying

Agent is alive and correctly patient (wakes_failing=false, wakeError=null, $0.76 PnL across 5 deals). Immediate risk: MARKET_OPEN_MS is off by one day — Sunday June 15 instead of Monday June 16 — and fires in ~625 min with a 'US market open' wake reason the LLM itself wrote, which may override its own day-of-week guard and trigger stock trades on a closed market.

Sunday stock closure + zero crypto inventory for sells + no crypto buy-dip ≥1.5% (SSV closest at +1.37%, w40). Script bug: MARKET_OPEN_MS = 1781530200×1000 resolves to 2026-06-15T13:30Z (Sunday), should be 1781616600×1000 (2026-06-16T13:30Z, Monday).

Sound and disciplined across w34–w41: correctly cites inventory constraints (zero crypto for sells), threshold discipline (1.5%), and market-hours blocks. One date error at w41: when computing next market open, wrote Sunday June 15 into MARKET_OPEN_MS instead of Monday June 16. Solving the right problem but carrying a latent one-day date bug that will generate a misleading self-authored wake trigg

Crypto spot ≤ trailing avg −1.5% for BTC ($64,136), ETH ($1,670), SSV ($2.31)

MARKET_OPEN_MS = 2026-06-15T13:30Z fires in ~625 min — WRONG DATE (Sunday, not Monday)

MISSING: day-of-week guard (getUTCDay() ≠ 0/6) to prevent Sunday/Saturday 'market open' fires

MISSING: stock buy-dip intraday triggers once markets are actually open

Sole active swap hub with 10 open intents covering sAAPL/sNVDA/BTC/ETH — direct counterparty for both crypto buys and stock fade slices

active, 10 open intents, 13/16 recent fl

Both trade sAAPL/sNVDA; stacker posts bids at oracle+0.5% which swing-nikita could take on buy-dip signals

ok, recently settled deal 180 on sAAPL r

DCA delivered swaps could cross swing-nikita's fade trades when dislocations align with lior's target mix

None in this window. Crypto sell-strength (SSV +3.46%, ETH +2.96%, BTC +1.50% at w41) is unmissable — agent holds zero crypto. SSV buy-dip at +1.37% is correctly sub-threshold. Sunday stock closure blocks all equity trades. No actionable intents missed.

Zero-LLM watcher with clean threshold arithmetic on CRYPTO_AVGS

Correctly restricts to BUY-DIP only given zero crypto inventory (sell-strength triggers removed)

Has a fallback (55h) — won't hang indefinitely

No day-of-week guard: fireWake triggers on Sunday 13:30Z identically to Monday 13:30Z

55h fallback is too coarse for a daily-cadence strategy — if time trigger misfires, Monday open is missed entirely

Fix MARKET_OPEN_MS: change 1781530200 to 1781616600 (adds 86400s = one day → Monday June 16). One-line change, eliminates the false Sunday 'market open' fire and correctly targets the actual next trading open.

MARKET_OPEN_MS points to Sunday 2026-06-15T13:30Z — off by one day

Wake script written at w41 (22:17 Jun 14 UTC) computed next market open as June 15 (Sunday) instead of June 16 (Monday). Time trigger fires in ~625 min with wake reason 'US market open 2026-06-15T13:30 UTC — stocks oracle live' — a false signal the LLM itself authored. LLM has correctly blocked Sund

Change MARKET_OPEN_MS from 1781530200 to 1781616600 (+ 86400). Add a guard: if (new Date(MARKET_OPEN_MS).getUTCDay() === 0 || new Date(MARKET_OPEN_MS).getUTCDay() === 6) advance by 1–2 days. Agent must regenerate this at the 13:30Z wake or the script should be manually patched before then.

55h fallback too coarse for daily market-open cadence

If the MARKET_OPEN_MS trigger misfires (wrong day, watcher restart after market open), the 55h fallback means the agent sleeps through Monday open entirely. A 6h fallback ensures it catches intraday re-entry.

Set fallbackMs to 6 * 3600_000 (6h) on any wake that targets a time-specific market event.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

SSV rose $0.04 since 2114 was posted, eroding margin from 1.80% to ~0.08% — below 0.8% watcher guard, so watcher auto-ca

14 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781496528; next poll 86s

Summary: NEWLY BROKEN since last summary: wakes_failing=true, 'launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)' — agent has shifted from ALIVE to BROKEN between runs. Prior last-wake was 9 min ago (prior run) vs 7 min ago now, suggesting the failure hit on or just after w175 (03:20). Concurrent-wake interference persists unchanged: w173 fired ×2 (02:24 + 02:35), w175 fired ×2

Agent is NOW BROKEN: 'launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)' — wakes_failing=true, pidAlive=false. Watcher is armed (nextFallbackMin=17) but the fallback will also fail. 6 bait-sells (sAAPL/ETH/BTC/SSV/sMSFT) are stale on-chain with no agent repricing or cancelling them. This supersedes all concurrent-interference analysis until the entrypoint is fixed.

metrics.wakes_failing=true; watcher.wakeError='launch-wake exited 1'; pidAlive=false; last successful logged wake w175 at 03:20 (~7 min ago); fallback fires in 17 min and will also fail

Sound and on-mission through the last good wakes (w170–w175): correct rival-expiry upgrades (floor→1.82%), floor-cancel-repost on price drift, CMQ false-positive skips correctly identified. The 'right problem' is now the entrypoint crash — trading logic is moot until wakes execute again.

scan-edges: new takeable edge ≥1% (honeypots 779/836/869 pre-seeded)

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest intent expiry

check-my-quotes: cancelCmds > 0 (erosion/undercut)

MISSING: concurrent-wake lock — simultaneous triggers spawn duplicate processes (w173×2 at 02:24+02:35, w175×2 at 03:10+03:20, w174 explicitly logged 'Two concu

3 recent swap deals settled; hub for most swap flow

2 recent swap deals; mispriced swap opportunities in scope

2 recent swap deals but arb-hunter itself is stuck

1 swap deal; rotations may create takeable edges

Unmeasurable while wakes failing — scan-edges not running. 6 stale bait-sells unmanaged since w175 (03:20); price drift since then may have put them below floor or missed rival-expiry upgrade windows.

Multi-trigger (edge + pre-expiry + quote erosion + 2h fallback) directly matches vulture's opportunistic mission

Honeypot pre-seed (779/836/869) prevents re-firing on dead intents

Token-free scan-edges; 30s poll is appropriate cadence for quote drift

seenEdgeIds set prevents duplicate edge-take on same intent across polls

No concurrent-wake lock: simultaneous trigger conditions (pre-expiry fires while quote erosion also detected) spawn two wake processes concurrently — w173×2, w1

No backoff or alerting on launch-wake exit-1 — watcher re-arms silently after crash, fallback will fail again in 17 min

Add lockfile guard before fireWake(): write /tmp/vulture-wake.lock, skip+return if it exists, remove on exit. Eliminates all concurrent-wake interference in one change — the single highest-value fix remaining after the entrypoint crash is r

CRITICAL: launch-wake exited 1 — agent broken, fallback will also fail

wakes_failing=true since on/after w175 (03:20). Exact error is in agent logs above the entrypoint line (not captured in snapshot). pidAlive=false. Watcher fallback fires in 17 min and will hit the same crash. 6 bait-sells on-chain are unmanaged.

Read agent log output above 'launch-wake exited 1' — likely a binary/module resolution failure. If identical to bear-yosher's crash signature, escalate to core (shared binary regression). Otherwise fix agent-local toolchain.

Two agents crashed in same cycle — possible shared binary regression

bear-yosher (armed=false, pidAlive=false, crashed) and vulture-andrew (wakes_failing, launch-wake exit 1) both show entrypoint-level failures in this cycle. Coincidence unlikely if error text matches.

Compare launch-wake stderr on both agents; if both show 'not found on PATH' or same module error, treat as fleet-wide binary regression and fix at core before any per-agent work.

Concurrent-wake interference: w173×2 (02:24+02:35), w175×2 (03:10+03:20)

Pattern unchanged from prior run (w167×2, w168×3). W174 log explicitly: 'Two concurrent w173 sessions each posted a full basket of baits.' Causes duplicate posts, false-positive cancellations, and wasted gas across every high-activity window.

Lockfile guard in wake-script before fireWake() call — check /tmp/vulture-wake.lock, skip if present, write it, remove on wake completion. One addition, eliminates all interference.

2 BROKEN, CLOCK BUGS ARMED

dominant — ~88% est. (14/16 recent settled; LP-Maker hub for 13/16)

frozen — 4 consecutive misses on option-taker; BTC put #0x0833 expires unfilled this cycle

stalled — bear-yosher in HALT (225 min fallback); mimic-ljuba resting (613 min fallback); polymarket intents open 6758 min

FROZEN — arb-hunter wakes_failing=true (launch-wake exited 1); was source of 5/1

Vulture-Andrew ⇄ LP-Maker-Matheus / Momentum-Nikita

FROZEN — vulture wakes_failing=true (launch-wake exited 1); 6 bait-sells orphane

IDLE, DISCIPLINED — 8 consecutive holds (w37–w44); field compressed (ETH-BTC gap

ACTIVE — deal 180 settled (rotation from sNVDA); new intent posted ($10 USDC → 0

LP-Maker-Matheus bid #2077 open, 0 fleet sellers

DARK — 13+ consecutive wakes, no sNVDA asks fleet-wide; stacker-massimo (sole pr

Option-Writer-Matheus → (Option-Taker-Matheus blind)

FROZEN — BTC put #0x0833 ($64,910 strike, 0.18 USDC) expires in ~17 min; option-

arb-hunter-tom BROKEN — launch-wake exited 1, wakes_failing=true, tokens_5h_usd=0

LP-Maker-Matheus loses its primary taker; 5 of last 16 deals (31%) were LP↔Arb-Hunter SSV/USDC fills; SSV swap market fr

5 LP↔Arb-Hunter-Tom entries in recent deal list; arb-hunter wakes_failing=true, pidAlive=true (watcher alive but every execution aborts before LLM); fallback re-armed at 30 min

vulture-andrew BROKEN — launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap), wakes_failing=true, pidAlive=false

6 bait-sell intents orphaned (ETH/BTC/sAAPL/sMSFT, 10–53 min TTL); $13.02/5h collateral burn continues unattended; LP an

vulture wakeError='launch-wake exited 1'; 6 vulture intents visible on open book; last successful wake w175 (~7 min before this cycle)

Identical 'launch-wake exited 1' failure on 2 agents (arb-hunter-tom + vulture-andrew) in the same cycle

Fleet-wide platform regression, not two independent agent faults — same error string, both flipped to infra-down this cy

arb-hunter wakeError='launch-wake exited 1'; vulture wakeError='launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)'; both show infra-down rootCause class; 2-of-2 count makes coincidence implausible

stacker-massimo hit consecutive_misses=2 on sNVDA and rotated to sAAPL (deal 180 settled)

LP-Maker sNVDA bid #2077 ($203.87, 12 USDC) loses its only plausible restock path; sNVDA market structurally dark throug

deal 180 = stacker sAAPL rotation; LP sNVDA bid #2077 open 13+ wakes with 0 fills; 0 sNVDA asks in open book

option-taker-matheus seenIntentIds seeds-and-skips on first poll (current.ts lines 22–24)

BTC put #0x0833 will expire unfilled — option-taker's fallback fires 81 min after the put's 17-min expiry; this is the 4

3 confirmed prior misses: ETH calls 1924, 1971, 1993 all expired; taker last woke w35 (346 min ago); put on book with ~17 min left; fallback=81 min

swing-nikita hardcodes MARKET_OPEN_MS=1781530200×1000 (resolves to 2026-06-15T13:30Z, a Sunday) AND rebalancer-lior hard

Both agents will fire their market-open trigger on a non-trading day (~625 min and ~669 min respectively); rebalancer's

June 15 2026 is Sunday; swing-nikita rootCause=structural; rebalancer-lior rootCause=off-mission, badge=WRONG DATE ARMED; both w/o day-of-week guard; momentum-nikita's equivalent clock was patched to

Platform binary regression: arb-hunter-tom + vulture-andrew both 'launch-wake exited 1'

Two agents show identical wakeError='launch-wake exited 1' in the same cycle — arb-hunter-tom (wakes_failing=true, tokens_5h_usd=0) and vulture-andrew (wakes_failing=true, pidAlive=false). Combined they represent ~38% of recent deal volume (5 arb-hunter SSV fills + multiple vulture equity fills). This is a platform entrypoint regression, not two independent agent failures. Vulture's fallback fires in 37 min and will also fail. A third f

arb-hunter wakeError='launch-wake exited 1'; vulture wakeError='launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)'; both rootCause.class=infra-down; both flipped this cycle

Check claude binary / launch-wake entrypoint on the agent container host immediately — same error on 2 agents in one cycle = platform fault. Fix and restart both. Monitor arb-hunter (30 min) and vulture (37 min) fallbacks to confirm resolution.

option-taker blind spot: BTC put #0x0833 expires in ~17 min — 4th consecutive miss guaranteed

seenIntentIds seed-on-first-poll (current.ts lines 22–24) makes option-taker permanently invisible to options it hasn't seen in a prior session. BTC put ($64,910 strike, 0.18 USDC premium) is live with ~17 min left; taker fallback fires in 81 min — structurally too late. Prior confirmed misses: ETH calls 1924, 1971, 1993. Option-writer's diagnostic probe will yield a false negative.

current.ts lines 22–24 seed-and-skip; taker last woke w35 (346 min ago); put on book; fallback=81 min vs ~17 min left

Remove the seed-on-first-poll guard from option-taker current.ts lines 22–24 entirely — treat all intents as actionable from the first wake. Patch before next option post by option-writer.

Sunday date bug: swing-nikita + rebalancer-lior both targeting 2026-06-15T13:30Z (today, Sunday)

Two agents independently resolved 'Monday market open' to Sunday June 15: swing-nikita via raw epoch 1781530200×1000, rebalancer-lior via ISO string new Date('2026-06-15T13:30:00Z'). Both lack a day-of-week guard. Swing fires in ~625 min, rebalancer in ~669 min. Rebalancer's implicit stale-oracle defense is unreliable. Momentum-nikita's equivalent bug was defused in w44 — the fix pattern is known.

June 15 2026 = Sunday; swing badge=WRONG DATE BUG, rootCause=structural; rebalancer badge=WRONG DATE ARMED, rootCause=off-mission; momentum-nikita w44 applied ISO string fix

In both wake scripts: change target to 2026-06-16T13:30Z (Monday) and add guard: if (new Date().getUTCDay() === 0 || new Date().getUTCDay() === 6) { return; }. ~600 min window before either fires.

sNVDA structurally dark: LP bid #2077 open 13+ wakes, 0 fleet sellers

LP-Maker-Matheus bid #2077 ($203.87, 12 USDC) has cleared 0 fills for 13+ consecutive wakes. Stacker-massimo — the only agent that was plausibly restocking sNVDA inventory — rotated to sAAPL at deal 180. No other fleet agent posts sNVDA to sell. The ask slot will stay dark without structural intervention.

LP bid #2077 open with 0 fills across 13+ wakes; stacker deal 180 = sAAPL rotation; 0 sNVDA asks in open book; option-writer sNVDA buy #1994 ($10 USDC, +0.5% oracle) also unfilled

Onboard a dedicated sNVDA seller or configure LP-Maker to post sNVDA asks directly to bootstrap the ask side. Alternatively, increase stacker's sNVDA fill tolerance or lower the rotation threshold.

bear-yosher in HALT, alive (225 min fallback) — binary market stalled as side effect

Bear-yosher is alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=225) and correctly halted — BTC+ETH persistent climb confirmed valid at w58 (03:04 UTC June 15). However, the halt freezes the binary bet market: mimic-ljuba's only settled-deal counterparty is out of action; binary intents show edge of −65pp/−15pp/−38pp (all below 3pp floor). No deal flow expected until bear-yosher's halt condition resolves.

bear-yosher armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=225; mimic-ljuba rootCause=counterparty-starved, reliableCounterparties=1; binary edges all below 3pp floor per w103–w109

No immediate action — halt is valid. Monitor bear-yosher's 225 min fallback wake; ensure that wake re-arms correctly (w58 failed to re-arm, per Step 2 summary). If halt still valid at w59, verify armWatcher is called regardless of halt outcome.

index-maker + index-taker: dead cluster, 44 consecutive null cycles

Both agents: 0 wakes, 0 tokens, wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false for 44 cycles. The IndexBasket LONG market has never had a maker or taker. Mutually dependent — neither functions without the other.

44 null cycles; both wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, tokens_lifetime_usd=0

Bootstrap index-maker first (fund wallet, commit wake script, deploy), then index-taker. Or formally decommission both if IndexBasket is not a current priority.

URGENT: diagnose 'launch-wake exited 1' on arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew — check the claude binary / launch-wake entrypoint on the host. Same error on 2 agents = platform fault. Fix and restart both before their 30–37 min fallbacks fire and also fail.

option-taker-matheus: remove seenIntentIds seed-on-first-poll guard (current.ts lines 22–24) — treat all intents as actionable from first wake. Patch before next option-writer post; 4 fills lost so far.

swing-nikita + rebalancer-lior: correct MARKET_OPEN_MS to 2026-06-16T13:30Z (Monday) and add day-of-week guard (skip on UTC day 0 or 6). ~600 min window before both fire on Sunday stale oracle.

bear-yosher: verify next wake (225 min) correctly calls armWatcher at halt-check completion — w58 did not re-arm. Add unconditional armWatcher call at end of any halt-check wake path.

sNVDA ask-side: onboard a dedicated sNVDA seller or configure LP-Maker to post asks directly — bid #2077 has been dark 13+ wakes with the only restock path (stacker-massimo) now rotated away to sAAPL.

Marginally better vs last run: sNVDA dark persists (LP bid #2028 open, 0 sellers) but stacker-massimo successfully rotated to sAAPL (deal 180 settled), partially relieving the structural drought. Clock bomb deferred again last cycle — w45 danger window now ~259 min out. Bear-yosher remains crashed (

LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole active hub: 13/16 recent deals involve it; 10 open intents; sNVDA ask slot still dark 12+ wakes, USDC→sNVDA bid #2028 unreachable

Clock bomb danger window approaching: momentum-nikita fallback fires ~07:17Z today (nextFallbackMin=259); w45 is the risk wake — MARKET_OPEN_MS bug may regenerate

Option-taker-matheus seenIntentIds miss streak = 3 consecutive; BTC put on book NOW (35 min left, $64,910 strike, 0.18 USDC); taker last woke 344 min ago, fallback in 99 min — will miss this put

Two agents with 13:30Z Sunday triggers armed today: rebalancer-lior (nextFallbackMin=687) and swing-nikita (13:30Z time trigger) — both prior summaries flag no day-of-week guard; LLM reasoning is the

Bear-yosher: armed=false, pidAlive=false, 307 min silent — CRASHED or still in mission-halt; 5h fallback should have fired ~02:56Z, no evidence it did

Vulture-andrew concurrent-wake interference (w167–172 pattern) is ongoing efficiency drag; 6 bait-sells active, burn $13.02/5h

Binary drought cited ≥190 wakes last run; fallback fires in 4 min (nextFallbackMin=4). Has any near-decided binary appeared on the book this wake cycle, or does the CEX-below-oracle gap on crypto still block all takes? Confirm whether 32nd

armed=false, pidAlive=false, 307 min silent — the 5h mission-halt fallback should have fired at ~02:56Z June 15. Did it fire and immediately re-halt (price still in climb), or is the watcher process itself dead? Distinguish mission-halt vs

44th consecutive null cycle expected — confirm armed=false, pidAlive=false, no deployment signal. No action needed unless wallet or env changed.

44th consecutive null cycle expected — confirm no deployment signal; index-maker (sole counterparty) also undeployed, so no market exists regardless.

sNVDA ask dark 12+ wakes; USDC→sNVDA bid #2028 ($203.87, -60bps) still open on book with 17 min left. Has any sNVDA seller appeared fleet-wide to restock? SSV 4th bid-inversion noted last run — is LP still posting inverted SSV bids this wak

No new BinaryBets since w109 (267 min ago, nextFallbackMin=631). Option-Writer-Matheus has a BTC put active on book (strike $64,910.41, 0.18 USDC premium, 35 min left). Does mimic-ljuba's mission cover BTC puts, or only BinaryBet copies? Co

Clock bomb danger window: w45 fallback fires at ~07:17Z today (nextFallbackMin=259). The last summary confirmed the bug deferred past this watcher, but warned w45 LLM may regenerate MARKET_OPEN_MS = wrong constant. What does the current wak

seenIntentIds seed-on-first-poll caused 3 confirmed consecutive misses (ETH call #1993 most recent). BTC put currently on book (35 min left) — option-taker last woke 344 min ago, fallback in 99 min, so it WILL miss this put too. Is the seen

sNVDA buy 2046 posted last cycle; BTC put on book now (strike $64,910.41, 0.18 USDC, 35 min left, last wake 25 min ago). Is the BTC put strike fairly priced vs current BTC oracle? Who is the realistic taker given option-taker-matheus is 344

Two maker binaries resting 288 min: #1827 sMSFT<$420 and #1916 sNVDA>$195 (Jun19 expiry, sNVDA at $205.10 = 5.2% buffer). Has sNVDA price drifted toward the $195 strike since w57? Fallback in 1154 min — is the wake script's zero price-drift

13:30Z Sunday trigger fires today in ~687 min (nextFallbackMin=687). Prior summary: agent corrected watcher to fire 06-15 believing it's 'Monday' but June 15 is Sunday. Will the stock oracle be stale/unavailable (as in w47) blocking any tra

Rotated to sAAPL after deal 180 (sNVDA drought); fallback fires in 10 min. LP-Maker has 15 USDC→sAAPL open on book (27 min left). Will stacker sweep LP's sAAPL ask this wake, or has consecutive_misses reset to retry sNVDA (which remains bid

13:30Z market-open trigger fires today (Sunday); prior 8 wakes blocked Sunday trades via LLM reasoning. nextFallbackMin=3018 suggests the 13:30Z fires via time-trigger not fallback. Will the LLM again correctly no-op on Sunday, or is there

Concurrent-wake interference (w167–172: w167 fired ×2, w168 fired ×3) is the dominant drag. Last wake 5 min ago, 6 bait-sells active. Did the most recent wake show continued interference (duplicate fires)? Floor bug: is it still present in

Fix option-taker-matheus seenIntentIds seed-on-first-poll bug — 3 confirmed consecutive misses; BTC put on book NOW expiring in 35 min will be miss #4 at the 99-min fallback.

Bear-yosher: diagnose armed=false+pidAlive=false after 307 min silence — confirm mission-halt vs process crash; re-arm if BTC/ETH no longer in the climb that triggered halt.

Fix Vulture-Andrew concurrent-wake deduplication — w167–172 duplicate fires cause false-positive cancellations and wasted gas at $13.02/5h burn.

sNVDA structurally dark: LP bid #2028 open but no sellers fleet-wide; stacker rotated away; consider whether any agent has sNVDA inventory to post as ask, or if a seeder is needed.

Momentum-nikita w45 clock bomb: audit current.ts for MARKET_OPEN_MS value before 07:17Z fallback fires (~259 min) — last summary warned the LLM may regenerate the bad constant at the next rewrite.

Rebalancer-lior and Swing-nikita: both arm 13:30Z Sunday triggers today with no day-of-week guard in current.ts — verify LLM reasoning will block erroneous Sunday stock trades at those wakes.