account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

Primary bet take window opens imminently (5-6min). Secondary swap edge unaffordable. Optimal move is to hold liquid USDC

bet #32/#89 in-money or new intent >569 (or 30min fallback)

Summary: Recovery stable post-w50: w51 correctly identified and accepted +52bps swap edge (Vulture-Andrew, pending txHash 0x407b95... confirmation). w52–w54 disciplined positioning: holding liquid USDC ($91.76) ahead of bets #32/#89 entering take window in ~5–16min. No fills on primary thesis remain structural — targets out-of-money on CEX (BTC 2.27%, ETH 1.50% below

Agent functioning correctly post-recovery. Market opportunity is real (bets #32/#89 entering take window imminently per w54) but hasn't materialized into fills yet. No agent fault; waiting is the right move. Confirm Deal 48 settlement (w51 txHash).

Primary targets (#32 BTC at $61,273 vs $64k strike, #89 ETH at $1,663 vs $1,700 strike per w49/w50) remain out-of-money on CEX. No mispricing: agent correctly holds for take window. Single swap edge found (w51, +52bps) was accepted, showing fallback logic works. Thin market for high-conviction edges

Sound. Agent tracks oracle prices, CEX prices, divergence (MAX_DIV_BPS=1000 guard), and expiry window (NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC=30min). Correctly rejects bets when out-of-money (w47–w50) and correctly pivots to swap edges when bets stall (w51). w52–w54 show disciplined liquidity management: keeps USDC free for imminent take window instead of deploying marginal edges. Solving the right problem.

Bet ≤30min expiry + CEX taker in-money (≥0.5% above strike, within MAX_DIV_BPS guard)

MISSING: Should generalize to all near-expiry bets, not hardcode #32 and #89; current script misses other mispriced bets

Vulture posts sharp edges (w51: +52bps swap executed). Reliable taker counterparty.

Posts swaps near oracle mid; primary source of resting edges. Currently recovering (just armed 27min fallback), may not be posting yet.

Posts BinaryBets; could be counterparty if prices align. Bet #32/#89 are not bear-yosher's—they're other agents'. No direct history.

Values and posts BinaryBets; if #32/#89 are her bets, she's the counterparty when they enter take window.

Posts delivered swaps; fallback source if premium swap edges appear.

None detected post-w50. Agent correctly: (1) rejected out-of-money bets w47–w50, (2) accepted +52bps swap w51, (3) is now positioned for imminent take window on #32/#89 per w52–w54. Log shows no intents the agent could have taken but didn't; it's waiting on the market to move, which is correct.

Fires on bet entering take window + CEX taker in-money with divergence guard (MAX_DIV_BPS=1000, MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT=0.5%) — correct for latency arb mission

Fallback on new intent fires correctly (highWaterIntentId tracking)

30min fallback prevents silent hang; zero-LLM, deterministic

RPC read failure has fallback to cached snapshot — resilient

Correctly handles near-expiry logic (NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC=30min)

Hardcodes bet IDs #32 and #89 — if focus shifts or those bets expire, agent won't wake on new high-conviction bets; should scan all intents with expirySecFromNo

Strike prices and symbols hardcoded — if bet params change, script is stale; should read strike from intent.details

Generalize bet scan loop: instead of `if (id === "32" || id === "89")`, iterate all intents where type === BinaryBet AND expirySecFromNow ≤ NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC, extract strike + symbol from intent.details, and check if CEX is in-money at that s

Hardcoded bet IDs limit wakeability to #32 and #89

Wake script scans only bets #32 and #89; if those expire or market focus shifts, agent won't wake on new near-expiry bets even if highly mispriced. w54 shows agent is actively monitoring #32/#89 (5–6min to take window), but script has no fallback if those two become stale.

Generalize bet loop to iterate all open BinaryBets, filter by expirySecFromNow ≤ NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC, extract strike from intent.details, apply in-money check. Removes hard dependency on bet IDs.

Thin edge market limits taker fill rate

Agent has 54 wakes but only 2 settled deals (one is historical swap w/ Vulture-Andrew; w51 Deal 48 pending). Bets #32/#89 remain out-of-money on CEX, and swap edges ≥10bps are rare. This is a structural liquidity issue, not agent fault — but it limits the agent's realized edge.

Increase maker diversity and edge posting frequency (core/fleet initiative). Confirm LP-Maker-Matheus recovery brings more resting swaps online; monitor Vulture-Andrew for consistent +50bps+ edges.

Agent functioning correctly post-recovery. Market opportunity is real (bets #32/#89 entering take window imminently per w54) but hasn't materialized into fills yet. No agent fault; waiting is the right move. Confirm Deal 48 settlement (w51 txHash).

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Engine 1: no aligned binary (takerInMoneyNow=false hard gate). Engine 2: DCA slice into tech basket. sNVDA alone at 12.9

Summary: Bear-Yosher is on-mission and correctly patient, waiting for crypto to decline to take aligned binary bets below strike. Intent #414 (BinaryBet with Mimic-Ljuba) is live and anchoring the book position. Since last summary: fallback timer reset to 206min (3.5h window), suggesting w14 restaged. Watcher armed and resting. CRITICAL: watcher code defines ethAdver

Agent is correctly disciplined (no new trades in 5h is expected given 103min wake gap + flat crypto); however, the wake-script has a critical bug: it arms with an ETH > $1,664 adverse-price trigger but never fetches the price. If ETH rallies sharply, the agent will not halt as intended—only the 4h fallback will fire. Secondary gap: watcher ignores the swap book entirely (no wake on new swaps), misaligned with a taker-first mission.

No new deals in 5h (0 tokens/5h), but this is not counterparty starvation—it reflects the agent correctly halting because its crypto-down thesis has not triggered. Last wake (w14, 20min ago) confirmed: 'Engine 1: no aligned binary (takerInMoneyNow=false hard gate).' The real blocker is Oracle state,

Sound. Engine 1 correctly gates on takerInMoneyNow=false (won't post crypto-down bets until crypto is actually down). Engine 2 (tech DCA) is mechanically building sNVDA (unchanged at 12.9qty but USDC wallet dropped $17.61 in w14, consistent with a DCA slice). No churn detected; mission-coherent patience.

Intent #414 deadline (via Date.now() >= deadline check)

4h fallback (via armWatcher({ fallbackMs: 4*3600_000 }))

MISSING: ETH price monitoring (readETH > 1664 threshold defined but never fetched)

MISSING: Swap book visibility (taker-first agent blind to new swaps on LP hub)

Shared intent #414 (BinaryBet anchor); Mimic mirrors binaries, Bear bets crypto-down—aligned short exposure.

2 deals, no health issue flagged; presum

Potential source of cheap sNVDA/tech swaps (DCA engine 2), but watcher ignores swap book so cannot detect.

OFFLINE (crashed 12:48 UTC, armed for 27

Swap book is invisible to this watcher—if LP hub or others posted cheaper sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT fills since last summary, agent would not wake to take them. Unmeasurable without watcher visibility into posted swaps. Additionally, if Mimic-Ljuba filled intent #414 while the watcher was resting, agent may not detect the settlement.

Correctly arms for intent #414 deadline (agent should act when bet resolves)

4h fallback ensures agent doesn't sleep indefinitely (conservative, fits patient strategy)

2min poll cadence is patient-appropriate (no sub-minute churn)

ETH price monitoring is declared (ethAdverseThreshold=1664) but not implemented—creates a viem client and RPC URL but never calls it, so the adverse-price gate

No book awareness—taker-first agent has zero visibility into incoming swaps, missing DCA opportunities

No intent-fill detection—if Mimic fills intent #414, watcher may not notice and agent could re-post or stall

Priority 1: Fetch and check ETH price before the deadline loop. Replace the stub loop with actual price monitoring: `const ethPrice = await client.getBlockNumber() ... fetch oracle; if (ethPrice > 1664) fireWake('ETH adverse—halt');` This e

Wake-script price monitoring is broken (dead code)

Script declares `ethAdverseThreshold = 1664` and creates a viem client with RPC URL, but the main loop only logs time and fires on fallback. It never fetches the ETH price or compares it to the threshold. If ETH > $1,664, the agent should halt per mission ('halt and cancel only when crypto climbs pe

Add price fetching to the deadline loop: await client.readContract() or similar to fetch ETH oracle price, then compare: if (price > 1664) fireWake('ETH adverse'). This ensures the halt gate works as intended.

Watcher ignores swap book (taker-first agent misaligned with set-and-forget watcher)

Bear-Yosher is taker-first, should hunt for cheap sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT swaps for its tech DCA engine. Current watcher only fires on intent deadline + fallback, giving zero visibility into posted swaps. If LP hub or other agents posted a cheap fill since last wake (w14, 20min ago), the agent would not k

Add a low-cadence book poller (or subscribe to swap-posted events if SDK supports it) and wake on new swaps. Alternatively, reduce fallback to 1–2h and accept more frequent check-ins, so the agent hunts the book on each wake.

Watcher cannot detect intent fills (potential stall on settlement)

If Mimic-Ljuba fills intent #414 while the watcher is resting, it is unclear whether the watcher detects the settlement. Last summary mentions 'intent #414 shows continued engagement after prior completion'—was it re-posted manually, or did the agent miss the fill and re-post blind? Watcher deadline

SDK should expose intent-fill detection to watchers (e.g., via `onIntentFilled(id, callback)` hook). Until then, agents must include a fallback loop to query intent status directly.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Quotes fair, no new flow worth taking. Watcher guards better than active repricing. Patient approach: let flow come.

oracle breach, new fillable swap, or quote expiry (~30 min)

Summary: LP-Maker recovered from 134min offline crash (12:48 UTC) and completed two successful wakes (w38@15:28, w39@15:48) with patient quote-holding, +$0.88 PnL vs w38. Process dead again (pidAlive=false) but watcher armed for 26min fallback—matches prior summary's unhandled exception in readPrice/readOpenIntents, now confirmed still unguarded in current wake scrip

LP-Maker is perfectly on-mission (oracle guards, patient quotes, $49 settled with Vulture-Andrew 12×, Option-Writer 11×), but remains in a repeating crash cycle: unguarded readPrice/readOpenIntents at lines 42–43 of wake script will throw and kill the process when the API returns malformed data or experiences transient failure. Watcher fallback logic is sound (two successful wakes prove it); the fix is to wrap both calls in try-catch.

readPrice and readOpenIntents calls (wake script lines ~42-43) have no try-catch wrapper. Prior summary identified this; current script shows it persists. w39 completed but process dead again → confirms async exception recurred. No API contract enforces error handling; SDK allows belt.tools.* to thr

Sound. w38 and w39 show perfect logic: oracle bounds ±1.5–2.8% are well-reasoned, quote-holding strategy is correct for LP in thin book (no churn, natural flow capture), newMatches detection is fresh-only. The crash is not a logic error; it's a robustness failure in platform/script.

Oracle breach (ETH ±1.7%, BTC ±0.7%, SSV ±2.4%, sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT ±2.8–3.5%)

MISSING: try-catch around readPrice (line ~42) and readOpenIntents (line ~48) — unguarded calls will crash the watcher silently

12 fills settled; most-traded counterparty; active and reliable

11 fills; steady flow of inventory swaps

4 fills settled; but offline 121min (structural, not LP's fault)

1 fill; low-volume but reliable on-mission pair

None. Recent wakes show correct hold-not-chase behavior (quotes already fair; no intents worth accepting w39 message confirms).

Oracle breach detection with asset-specific safety margins (±1.5–2.8%) is precise and LP-appropriate

New fillable swap trigger matches 'fill from inventory' mission exactly

Quote expiry fallback (~30 min) prevents stale quotes from lingering

Fallback cadence is patient (~30 min), avoids sub-minute churn

Filters own address to prevent self-fill logic

readPrice call (line ~42) has no try-catch; if API throws or returns malformed data, the entire watcher crashes

readOpenIntents call (line ~48) has no try-catch; same crash risk

No retry logic for transient API failures; fails hard instead of gracefully degrading

Wrap both readPrice and readOpenIntents calls in try-catch blocks. On error, either skip that check (fail-open: keep watcher running) or log and fire the wake. **This is the one highest-value fix — it will stop the repeat crash.** (Core fix

Unguarded async SDK calls in belt.tools API contract

readPrice and readOpenIntents (and likely other belt.tools.* methods) can throw if API fails or returns malformed data; no error handling enforcement in SDK harness or contract documentation. This is why every wake script that calls them must implement try-catch — but that burden is on the agent, no

SDK: (1) Document that belt.tools.* calls require try-catch wrapping, OR (2) wrap all belt.tools.* calls in the runWatchLoop harness itself so scripts don't have to. Until then, add try-catch to all wake scripts that call readPrice/readOpenIntents.

Unguarded readPrice/readOpenIntents in current wake script

Lines ~42 and ~48 of wake script call belt.tools without try-catch. Prior summary identified this as crash root cause 134min ago; it persists. w39 completed but process dead again → confirms the exception recurs when API conditions are unfavorable.

Wrap both calls in try-catch: `try { const pricesResp = await belt.tools.readPrice.run(...) } catch(e) { log error; skip breach check; continue }`. Same for readOpenIntents. Fail-open: keep the watcher alive even if the API call fails.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on all resting bets. One deliberate move rule: skip thin/negative edges and churn. Wait for post-e

Summary: Watcher revived and armed; 13 wakes with 11 repeats (patient edge-floor discipline, not churn). Two settled deals with Polymarket-Ljuba, -$0.74 PnL; zero portfolio deployed lifetime. Last 5 wakes (w9–w13, 11:38–12:02 UTC) found no ≥3pp taker edge on new BinaryBets; agent correctly holding. Sleeping 217 min (past 60min fallback window); next fire at fallback

Agent is working correctly: disciplined edge-floor (≥3pp) prevents churn, settled 2 deals with Polymarket-Ljuba, watcher revived and armed for next fallback in 4 min. Root cause of inactivity is **structural** — no new BinaryBets with ≥3pp taker edge posted in last 24 min; agent is correctly waiting, not broken. Wake script fit-to-mission is good for new-inflow triggers but lacks periodic re-evaluation of existing bets for dynamic edge shifts.

w9–w13 (11:38–12:02 UTC): all report 'Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on all resting bets' or 'All taker edges below 3pp floor by 40pp+'. Market is thin or stale on high-conviction edges. Not a counterparty-starve (Polymarket-Ljuba is active, Bear-Yosher posts BinaryBets); market condition. Agent is correctly

Sound. Agent employs 'one deliberate move per wake' rule: skip thin/negative edges, wait for ≥3pp floor. This is disciplined copy-trading logic, not re-deriving the same move in a loop — it's explicitly choosing to rest when conditions don't align. The watcher fires on new high-edge BinaryBets OR 60min fallback; both are mission-aligned. Agent is solving the right problem (hunt high-edge bets, avo

New BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker-edge (cost-implied prob ≥0.53)

MISSING: Periodic re-eval of existing open BinaryBets for dynamic edge shifts (watcher only detects NEW intent entry, not edge-state changes on resting bets)

Actively trading: 2 settled BinaryBet deals already closed. Ljuba values/buys misprice, mimic posts/mirrors — complementary.

Posts BinaryBets below flow (bearish crypto conviction). Mimic-Ljuba would be taker on those if edge ≥3pp. Untraded but mission-aligned.

Writes options, might post synthetic BinaryBets. Not primary target but possible.

Takes clearly-mispriced near-decided binaries. Perfect taker for mimic-ljuba's posts. **Currently OFFLINE** (armed=false, pidAlive=false) —

None: w9–w13 explicitly checked open BinaryBets and found zero ≥3pp taker edges — no takeable opportunies exist in the current book. Unmeasurable: whether existing resting bets become takeable as market conditions shift, since watcher only monitors new inflow.

60min fallback (patient, not sub-minute poll)

Zero-LLM, deterministic edge check (≥0.53 implied prob for taker)

Tracks seen intents; fires only on NEW BinaryBets with ≥3pp edge

Prevents churn: ≥3pp threshold means no thin-edge thrashing

Only monitors NEW intent entry (newMatches), not dynamic edge shifts on existing resting bets. Mission says 'accept winnable open bets' — existing bets become t

Add a periodic 'recheck all open BinaryBets' loop (every 15–20 min) in addition to new-inflow trigger. As oracle prices shift, existing resting bets may cross the ≥3pp taker edge — this secondary loop would catch that without bloating the n

Wake script misses dynamic edge discovery on existing bets

Watcher only fires on new BinaryBet entries with ≥3pp edge. If an existing resting bet becomes takeable (as oracle reprices), watcher won't notice until next 60min fallback. Mission says 'accept winnable open bets' — this drift is minor but material for thin markets.

Add a 15–20 min periodic re-eval of all open BinaryBets in addition to new-inflow trigger. Keeps fallback window manageable but catches dynamic edge shifts.

Thin book: no new BinaryBets with ≥3pp taker edge in last 24 min

w9–w13 (all in last 24min) report zero edges ≥3pp. Market is either under-posting high-conviction BinaryBets or they're being taken faster than posted. Mimic-Ljuba is correctly waiting, not broken — but the board's BinaryBet supply is stale.

Ensure Bear-Yosher, Vulture-Andrew (now offline), and Option-writer-matheus are actively **posting** BinaryBets with 2–5pp edge spreads to refresh the book. Vulture-Andrew offline is a net loss (removes a high-volume taker). When it restarts, rebalancer-lior's fallback at 20:00 UTC may free up capit

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Summary: Correctly idle through w5 (14:32 UTC) after w1 starter trade (+25% BTC); all crypto declining together with <1pp gaps—no momentum candidate standing out. Wake-script is well-reasoned: fires on >3% move from baseline or 4h fallback at 18:32 UTC (182min armed, pidAlive=true). Watcher is alive and armed. No logic failures. Bottleneck is structural (market), not

Sound wait. Mission requires momentum edge (single-asset lead >2–3pp); market is not providing it (all crypto declining together, <1pp best gap per w5). Wake at 18:32 UTC will re-evaluate baselines and re-anchor. Realized PnL -0.91 USD from w1 BTC trade (underwater since 17:47 UTC 06-08); market risk, not logic failure.

All crypto declining together; <1pp gap best spread (w5 & prior summary 14:32 UTC 06-09). Edge threshold unmet across w2–w5 (4 repeat wakes, no-trade on each). Agent mission requires single-asset lead to identify momentum candidate; market is not providing it. Example: w2 'ETH edges BTC but not by e

Sound. Agent correctly avoids churn by requiring >3% threshold. Baselines reset per-wake (intentional, responsive to market regime shift — allows agent to re-anchor if crypto regime drifts). No trading on noise. Logic matches mission: hunt strongest mover, wait for breakout or fallback at 4h to re-evaluate. Idle state is the correct decision.

>3% move in BTC, ETH, or SSV from w5 baseline (BTC 61526.31, ETH 1642.13, SSV 2.02 as of 14:32 UTC)

4h fallback wake at 18:32 UTC (182min from snapshot, nextFallbackMin confirmed, pidAlive=true)

Once momentum signal fires, momentum-nikita posts swap intent. LP-Maker provides swap liquidity for all agents.

OFFLINE NOW — crashed 12:48 UTC; armed f

None. Agent correctly avoided sub-threshold signals (w2–w5, 4 idle wakes). Logs state 'no book orders at fair-or-better value' in w3–w4; no arbitrage moments detected. Agent is waiting, not missing edges.

Fires on >3% move: directly matches mission (detect momentum breakout on fastest mover)

4h fallback: ensures wake and re-evaluation even if market is flat; patient cadence (not sub-minute noise poll)

60s internal poll: reasonable for intraday momentum detection (not churn risk)

Zero-LLM, pure price monitor: cannot stall or hallucinate

Per-wake baseline reset: intentional design — responsive to market regime shifts, allows agent to re-anchor if crypto drifts

None urgent at agent level. Watcher is fit-to-mission. Flag at fleet level: if LP-Maker-Matheus does not recover by 18:32 UTC fallback wake, momentum-nikita will post swap intent with no counterparty (core risk, not agent issue).

Potential swap counterparty gap at w6 wake (18:32 UTC)

momentum-nikita's 4h fallback fires at 18:32 UTC. Agent will post swap intent for the strongest mover (if >3% move signal or on fallback decision). LP-Maker-Matheus is offline (crashed 12:48 UTC, armed for restart ~16:06 UTC, but process pidAlive=false). If restart fails before 18:32 UTC, momentum-n

Core: Prioritize LP-Maker-Matheus restart monitoring. If restart fails or hangs, route momentum-nikita swap intents to an alternative liquidity source (Vulture or Polymarket swap flow) or stall w6 wake until LP recovers. Monitor the 16:06 UTC fallback event.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: Watcher correctly armed and filtering for audited Option intents (templateHash 0xcd5689c...). W2–W5 scans (09:08–12:59) returned zero options — not a watcher blind-spot, but genuine market scarcity. Discrepancy: prior run flagged option-writer-matheus offline, but current roster shows health='ok'; either writer is now back online or wasn't truly offline. Eit

Zero deals (settled_deals_detail=[]) because no audited Option intents exist in the book, not because of watcher fault. Watcher correctly filters only the audited Option template; if option-writer-matheus is online but posting swaps/bets instead of options, that's a counterparty mission mismatch, not an agent failure. Will resume activity if options appear.

w2–w5 scans (4 times, 09:08→12:59 UTC) returned 'No audited Option intents found' (0 matches of 50 intents read each scan); no other agents in fleet write Options; option-writer-matheus (only source) shows health='ok' but zero options posted, suggesting it is not currently writing options or posts n

Sound. Agent correctly filters for the audited Option template hash (0xcd5689c76d56d3133c5b631145692a2c9035002dd8a745b80a738d736070daf6) and avoids duplicate wakes via seen-set tracking. Not re-deriving the same move. The four consecutive 'no options found' scans are consistent with true market scarcity, not a blind-spot in the watcher.

New audited Option intent matching templateHash 0xcd5689c... appears in book

2h fallback timeout (last fired ~w5 at 12:59 UTC; next ~16:38 UTC)

MISSING: No explicit trigger if option-writer-matheus restarts or switches to audited template — would be opportune but not critical (fallback catches it)

Only agent in fleet with mission to write ETH/BTC options; natural writer for option-taker to source from

unclear — health='ok' in current roster,

None measurable. Book scanned 4 times (w2–w5) and returned zero audited Option intents all four times. Agent cannot take what does not exist in the book.

2h fallback is patient and appropriate for a selective agent waiting on rare events (Option intents)

Correctly filters for audited Option template only — not fooled by non-audited custom intents

Seen-set logic prevents duplicate wakes on identical intents; zero redundant fires

Zero-LLM, fully deterministic, can't fire on empty book (only on NEW matches)

Could probe why option-writer-matheus isn't posting options (but that's an investigative depth beyond this agent's scope)

No agent-level change needed. Watcher is fit-to-mission. Investigate at fleet level: confirm whether option-writer-matheus intends to post audited Options or has switched strategy to non-audited templates / other markets. If switched, optio

Option market has zero supply

option-taker-matheus scanned 4 times (w2–w5, 09:08–12:59 UTC) and found zero audited Option intents. Only counterparty (option-writer-matheus) is either not posting options or posting non-audited templates. Option submarket is at 0% deal velocity; taker is idle by market condition, not agent fault.

Fleet: confirm option-writer-matheus strategy — is it posting audited Options? If not, either reactivate it on Options or onboard a second option writer. If it is posting non-audited Options, standardize on the audited template or broaden option-taker's filter.

Allowance approval cost incurred, no trading yet

w1 approval (tx 0xf32c9384ffaac682b60b19015204600f1d74e239e1802) cost 0.15 USD to unlock USDC spending. Agent has not yet taken any deal. Cost is sunk; can be recovered when first option is taken.

None. Standard cost of on-chain approval. Recovered on first deal (approval cost is negligible next to option premium).

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

No ranking change, no drift trigger, pre-market hours (stocks untradeable), ENGINE 1 paused after 6 consecutive unfilled

monitoring rotation intents 530/533 (or 15-min fallback)

Summary: Previously paused Engine 1 (options) at w21 after 6 consecutive rejections across parameter space (OTM→ATM, all terms/premiums rejected), correctly pattern-matching 'market doesn't want options.' Switched to Engine 2 (portfolio rotation) at w23; executed 3 rebalancing swaps rotating sMSFT→sNVDA/sAAPL (intent 528 filled, 530/533 pending 6min expiry). Current

Agent reasoning is sound: correctly paused options after exhausting repricing ladder, pivoted to rotation swaps. Intent 528 filled; 530/533 expiring unfilled due to LP-Maker-Matheus offline (a core/fleet issue, not agent fault). Lacks resumption condition for Engine 1.

Options: 6 consecutive rejections (intents 0xf3, 258, 272, 0x11d spanning 1% OTM to ATM, premiums 2%–3%, terms 1.5hr–6hr) with zero fills; no agent bid. Swaps: 530/533 pending expiry; LP-Maker-Matheus offline since 12:48 UTC (structural availability issue, not pricing).

Sound. Agent systematically repriced options down across the parameter space (OTM→cheap→ATM-short→ATM-long→long-term) and observed 6 consecutive rejections. At w21, correctly diagnosed 'market doesn't want options' and paused Engine 1 rather than burning more tokens. Switched to Engine 2 rotation (70% side of mission). No token churn; disciplined strategy pivot.

Intent resolution (530/533 fill or expire)

15-min fallback (adequate for ~12min intent expiry; will wake after expiry resolves)

Selective (buys only ITM or near-decided); option-writer posted OTM/ATM/near-money. Fit only if option-writer reprices to deep discount, aba

Unknown (roster health ok, 2 deals; acti

Hub for swaps; intent 528 settled with LP; 530/533 target LP. Natural fit.

OFFLINE (crashed 12:48 UTC, remains down

None. Options pause is strategic (market signaled rejection, not mispricing). Rotation swaps are on-plan; pending fills (not available to take instead).

Fires on intent resolution (fill/expire), the event the agent needs to act on.

15-min fallback is patient; no sub-minute polling.

Zero-LLM; just checks intent state via readIntent.

Clear label and scope (monitoring 2 known intents).

Fallback at 15min is slightly longer than needed (intents expire in ~12min per w24 log); would miss exact expiry and wake only after. Minor — catch on next tick

Optional: reduce fallback to 10 min to catch expiry precisely rather than overshooting. Current 15 min is acceptable; agent will wake and confirm expiry on the fallback.

Engine 1 resumption condition undefined

Agent correctly paused options writing at w21 after 6 rejections; switched to Engine 2 rotation. But no explicit condition for resuming Engine 1 is visible in the logs. If market never signals demand for options, the agent resumes at next scheduled wake without a gate, potentially re-hitting the sam

Add a resumption condition: (a) only resume options if option-taker-matheus or another options counterparty posts a take intent, OR (b) require explicit market signal (e.g., a synthetic options book appears) before resuming, OR (c) set a clock-based resumption (resume after N hours rest + repriced l

LP offline, rotation swaps expiring unfilled

Intents 530/533 are expiring without fills (due in ~6 min from w24 17:35 log: 'Intents 530/533 expiring soon (~12 min)'). LP-Maker-Matheus is offline since 12:48 UTC (per Step-1). Agent posted valid oracle-mid swaps; counterparty is unavailable. This is a fleet/hub availability issue, not agent logi

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus per Step-1 fallback (27min restart armed). Once LP recovers, agent will retry rotation swaps at next wake.

Agent reasoning is sound: correctly paused options after exhausting repricing ladder, pivoted to rotation swaps. Intent 528 filled; 530/533 expiring unfilled due to LP-Maker-Matheus offline (a core/fleet issue, not agent fault). Lacks resumption condition for Engine 1.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Summary: WELL-REASONED, WAITING ON COUNTERPARTIES. Identified two high-conviction Polymarket edges (Intent #32: BTC<$64k at 3% edge on 06-08 18:03; Intent #89: ETH<$1700 at 10.3% edge on 06-08 20:01) and posted both. Both deeply ITM (BTC $63.4k vs $64k, ETH $1.65k vs $1.7k) and unfilled 240+ min. Root cause: counterparty starvation — LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 12:48 UT

Agent logic is sound; intents #32 and #89 are correctly mispriced by Polymarket-Ljuba's analysis (3% and 10.3% edges), but unfilled because key counterparties are offline. This is a fleet coordination failure, not agent reasoning failure. Expect fills once LP-Maker restarts (Step 1: fallback in 27min).

Intent #32 (txHash 0xe0bee8b..., BTC 61.7% vs oracle 99.3% ITM) posted 06-08 18:03; Intent #89 (txHash 0xe09e09ab..., ETH 58.8% vs oracle 99%+ ITM) posted 06-08 20:01. Both unfilled 240+ min. LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 12:48 UTC (per Step 1, only major liquidity hub). Vulture-Andrew offline (armed=fal

Sound and on-mission. Agent quantified edges using Polymarket data (BTC 0.617 oracle, 0.588 Polymarket = 3% edge; ETH 0.588 oracle, 0.528 Polymarket = 10.3% edge), verified $158k and $124k liquidity depth on Polymarket, and sized Deal #36 at 4.3% of book within 10% exposure cap. Wakes 3–6 correctly assessed no new mispricing on book and maintained existing positions. Each wake has distinct reasoni

Intent #32 or #89 resolves (expires 16:00 UTC 06-09, or fills/cancels before)

Fallback at 18:00 UTC 06-09 (5h 15min window from w6 13:24)

Primary liquidity hub; mission is to fill/quote swaps near oracle mid. Deep inventory. Naturally positioned to take taker-side of Polymarket

OFFLINE — crashed 12:48 UTC, armed fallb

Mission: 'pick off clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries.' Intents #32 and #89 are exactly this profile — deep ITM, mispriced vs

OFFLINE — armed=false, pidAlive=false, n

Posts/takes BinaryBets to express crypto-down. BTC<$64k aligns with bear thesis if active, but not a core fit like LP/Vulture.

Status unknown; not flagged in Step 1 cr

Buys cheap/near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options. Binaries ≈ options in this system; if mission overlaps, could take Intent #89.

None documented. Wake 3 (06-09 08:53) checked book and found no new mispriced bets; subsequent wakes (w4–w6) do not show new book scans, only intent monitoring. Polymarket could have repriced since w3, but agent detected no new edge presented.

Monitors own intent resolution (fill/expire/cancel) — exactly the next actionable event after deploying two high-conviction edges

Cadence (60s poll per prior summary) is right-sized for intent lifecycle (~2.5h to 16:00 UTC expiry)

Fallback set to 18:00 UTC, past intent expiry — correct boundary

Zero-LLM, zero-cost: only checks `ownIntentResolved()` on belt

Tight scope: not polling whole book, just own intents

Does NOT re-scan Polymarket book for new mispriced edges while waiting. Mission is to 'buy the mispriced ones' — if Polymarket reprices or new agents post binar

Wake 3 scanned book (found no new edge), but w4–w6 show no follow-up book checks, only intent state monitoring.

Add periodic Polymarket book check (every 10–15 min) inside `runWatchLoop` to detect new edges while intents #32/89 pending. Example: inside the loop, check `if (loopIterationCount % 10 === 0)` then `await checkPolymarketBook()` for new mis

Deal #36 settlement failed with InvalidDealState

Wake 5 (06-09 12:45) attempted to settle Deal #36 (binary bet accepted w4 at 11.2pp edge). Settlement call returned InvalidDealState. Wake log: 'likely already processed or stat[e]'. Deal was fresh (created w4 12:05, settled attempt w5 12:45 ~40min later), within normal lifecycle.

Investigate SDK deal-state machine: confirm Deal #36 did not expire before settlement attempt, and that settle() is not being called twice (race). If deal naturally expired, confirm that's expected; if not, fix race in state management.

Counterparty starvation: hub + predator both offline

Intents #32 and #89 posted 240+ min ago (06-08 18:03 and 20:01) with strong edges (3% and 10.3%) and deep ITM status (BTC $63.4k vs $64k, ETH $1.65k vs $1.7k). Zero fills. LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 12:48 UTC (hub). Vulture-Andrew offline (natural taker). Market is frozen on high-conviction edges — no

Prioritize LP-Maker restart (Step 1: fallback in ~27 min). Confirm Vulture-Andrew offline is intentional or undetected crash (no fallback scheduled). Once LP-Maker online, expect rapid fills on #32 and #89 (they are Polymarket-Ljuba's favor, deep ITM).

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: Agent recovered from offline state and is now armed with a 261-min (4h 21m) fallback to market close 20:00 UTC. Before going offline, it executed strong DCA discipline: pivoted smartly from ETH (high expiry churn w7: 4 posts, 3 expired) → BTC (3/3 fills) → sAAPL at stocks open (w12, 14:39 UTC: posted intent #500). Current posture is patient waiting, not brok

Agent is functioning well and intentionally paused for market close. Posted sAAPL slice at stock open (w12, 14:39 UTC); now waiting for intent fill or 20:00 UTC market close. Root cause of the prior offline period unclear from current data — may have been intentional market pause or transient crash, but recovery is clean and watcher is sound.

None — agent is on-mission. Prior offline period (121min in last run) is now resolved; agent is armed and waiting patiently for the next DCA event (intent resolution or market close).

Sound. The agent reasons: (1) sAAPL is most underweight at market open → post DCA slice; (2) wait for fill or market close, whichever comes first. No re-derivation, no churn — clean one-slice-per-wake discipline with smart pivot logic (BTC fills when ETH expires repeatedly).

Intent #525 resolves (or intent #500 if script is stale) → next DCA slice

Poll every 30s to check intent resolution

Filled 5/7 swaps reliably; primary counterparty for DCA liquidity. Depth and mid-pricing make it the natural swap taker.

YES — LP-Maker-Matheus is operational (l

Smart contract counterparty; filled 2 swaps. Likely an external protocol or routing contract.

None evident. Agent posted sAAPL intent at market open (w12) and is waiting for fill. No other favorable DCA opportunities on the book during the wait window (next wake will be either intent-resolved or market-close driven).

Dual-trigger logic (intent resolve OR market close) is perfect for this mission — captures both the 'deal filled' and 'market window closed' events

Fallback hardened to market close (20:00 UTC) ensures agent won't sleep past the day's trading deadline

Zero-LLM polling (30s interval on blockchain) is efficient and won't hallucinate

Timeout anchor (setTimeout for market close) ensures prompt wake even if RPC is slow

Intent ID discrepancy: script watches MY_INTENT_ID = '525', but most recent posted intent in logs is #500. Potential stale script issue — verify the watcher is

Verify/fix intent ID in script (525 vs 500). If 525 is an older intent, the watcher will never fire on resolution and will only trigger at market close, adding latency to the next DCA cycle. Ensure script tracks the most recent posted inten

Intent ID mismatch in wake script

Script hardcodes MY_INTENT_ID = '525', but most recent logged post is intent #500 (w12, 14:39 UTC). If 525 is stale, the 'intent resolved' trigger will never fire and the agent will only wake at market close, losing sub-30min responsiveness.

Update the script to dynamically track the most recently posted intent ID, or verify that 525 is correct and update the logs if they're out of sync.

Offline recovery event not logged

Agent was offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false) for 121min in last run; now recovered (armed=true, pidAlive=true). The transition and cause are not visible in the data. A process restart or crash-recovery mechanism fired silently.

Add logging to the watcher/process startup so the observer can distinguish intentional restarts (expected) from crash recoveries (investigate). Include the reason for restart (market close pause, crash recovery, manual restart).

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

First fill success — acquired 0.002442 sNVDA at 1% discount. consecutive_misses reset to 0, restart sNVDA targeting. Con

intent 575 resolves, oracle drifts >0.5%, sweepable sNVDA appears, or 30-min fallback

Summary: On-mission DCA progressing: intent 534→558 (oracle refresh at w7)→575 (posted w8, 14:46 UTC). Agent correctly executing patient limit bids at 1% discount to accumulate sNVDA toward goal. However, fill rate is low (1 settled deal in 8 wakes = 12.5%) due to counterparty starvation: only LP-Maker-Matheus confirmed sNVDA maker, now crashed 27min ago with fallbac

Intent 575 is live and well-monitored; agent correctly priced at oracle×0.99 ($202.42) but has no backup maker. Only 1 settled deal with LP-Maker-Matheus (now offline) in 8 wakes reflects thin sNVDA sell-side liquidity, not agent failure. Watcher will fire on intent resolution, 0.5% oracle drift, or sweepable sNVDA sell-side ≤oracle×1.005—mission-appropriate cadence.

1 settled deal lifetime (swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus); 4 repeat wakes monitoring intent 575; avg_gap_min=162 (patient waiting); LP-Maker-Matheus is primary & only active sNVDA maker (crashed 27min ago, pidAlive=false, fallback=27min pending). Option-Writer-Matheus (13 deals, roster shows 'ok' health) no

Sound: agent correctly identifies 1% discount as patient DCA entry and iterates (534→558→575) as oracle drifts, refreshing stale bids instead of re-posting same move. Adapting to market; not churning. Mission-aligned accumulation thesis.

Oracle drifts >0.5% from posted price $202.42 (refresh bid at new oracle×0.99)

Sweepable sNVDA sell-side appears at ≤oracle×1.005

Deep inventory, fills swaps near oracle mid—only confirmed counterparty (1 settled deal evidence)

Contrarian 50/30 stock+crypto (buys worst performers); sNVDA possible exposure but not primary mission

UNKNOWN (roster shows 13 deals, health=o

Fades dislocations (buy stretched-below-average); if sNVDA is below 20d-MA, could sell into strength

UNKNOWN (1 deal, health=ok; no recent sN

None detected: watcher monitors sweepable sNVDA sell-side (≤oracle×1.005); no sweepable conditions fired in wake logs since w6. Agent correctly waits for fair opportunity rather than chasing market orders.

Fires on intent resolution (primary trigger for next DCA slice)

Monitors oracle drift >0.5% and triggers refresh (adapts to market, avoids stale bids)

Checks for sweepable sNVDA sell-side at oracle×1.005 (opportunistic better entry)

30-min fallback cadence (patient DCA rhythm matches mission)

Zero-LLM deterministic monitoring (efficient)

Hardcoded POSTED_PRICE=202.42 becomes stale if this watcher is reused; if oracle moves pre-next-wake, drift calc is off baseline. Should fetch current posted pr

Does not monitor for competing DCA-style makers (e.g., Option-Writer or Swing-Nikita posting sNVDA sells)—sweep logic only checks posted intents, relies on belt

Implement fallback bid escalation: if intent 575 expires unfilled after 2 wakes (120min), post next intent at oracle×0.98 (0.5% discount instead of 1%) to widen the maker pool and break counterparty starvation. Trade off patience edge for c

sNVDA sell-side monopoly: LP-Maker-Matheus is only liquidity source

1 settled deal lifetime, all via LP-Maker-Matheus. Now offline (crashed 27min ago, fallback pending). No other agent actively posting sNVDA sells at patient-entry prices. Option-Writer-Matheus (contrarian, could have sNVDA when it's worst performer) shows 13 deals but no sNVDA wake logs.

Core: broadcast sNVDA liquidity map to fleet—identify Option-Writer-Matheus and Swing-Nikita as potential backup makers, coordinate sNVDA availability windows. Fleet: encourage Option-Writer to post sNVDA sells when thesis triggers (sNVDA = worst of 3 stocks).

Infrequent fills despite on-mission pricing (12.5% fill rate, 1 in 8 wakes)

Patient limit bids at 1% discount are fair but not attracting diverse makers. No sweepable conditions fired in 3+ wakes. Relies entirely on LP-Maker-Matheus, who is now offline.

Implement adaptive bid escalation (suggest above): if no fill after N wakes, escalate to oracle×0.98. This is mission tuning (patience edge vs fill certainty), not a bug. Only deploy if LP-Maker-Matheus remains offline after fallback.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

dislocation -1.62% >> 1.5% threshold; real fade. sAAPL holding and above 1.5% dip; BTC next signal. Sizing at 20% of boo

BTC buy-dip intent resolves (filled/expired) or 1h fallback

Summary: Agent executing dislocation fade correctly: posted sAAPL #0x214 (w5, 14:40 UTC, -3.49% stretch) and BTC #0x239 (w7, 15:07, -1.62% stretch), both valid edges well above 1.5% threshold. w6 showed discipline (no churn, one move per wake). Both intents unfilled due to counterparty starvation—LP-Maker-Matheus (only reliable swap counterparty) crashed at 12:48 UTC

Swing-Nikita is reasoning correctly and on-mission (two valid dislocations fades, fair-priced at oracle mid, disciplined 20 USDC sizing). Both intents remain unfilled not because of a miscalculated edge, but because the market's primary liquidity provider (LP-Maker-Matheus, which settled its only deal) crashed at 12:48 UTC—before both intents were posted. This is a **structural market issue, not an agent failure**.

Only 1 settled deal lifetime (vs LP-Maker-Matheus). Both open intents (#0x214 sAAPL -3.49%, #0x239 BTC -1.62%) are valid edges, fair-priced at oracle mid, and posted *after* LP-Maker crashed (12:48 UTC vs. 14:40/15:07 posts). No other active swap counterparties visible on the board.

Sound and on-mission, solving the right problem. w5 correctly identified sAAPL -3.49% >> 1.5% threshold and sized appropriately (20 USDC from 15–25% range, respecting $20 buffer). w6 showed discipline (no churn, satisfied one move per wake rule while waiting). w7 correctly posted BTC -1.62% after w5 remained unresolved—moving to next opportunity instead of re-posting. No re-derivation, no flawed e

ownIntentResolved(INTENT_ID='0x239') — fires when BTC buy-dip intent fills or expires

60-second poll interval (disciplined, not spammy)

1h fallback fires if intent stalls (resets to reassess market)

Only active swap counterparty; settled 1 deal before crash

DCA via swaps; could sell if rebalancing away from equities/BTC

OFFLINE (121min, no fallback scheduled u

Crypto-down conviction could motivate BTC sales, but low deal count (3 lifetime)

Likely online (implied by deal count), b

None. No other dislocation intents visible in current snapshot. Polymarket-Ljuba's unfilled binary intents (#32 BTC, #89 ETH) are BinaryBets, not delivered swaps — no overlap with swing-nikita's venue.

ownIntentResolved(#0x239) is the correct trigger — when BTC intent fills/expires, wake to process result and post next move

60-second poll loop is disciplined (responsive, not sub-minute spam)

1h fallback is appropriate (resets if stuck without abandoning too quickly)

Optional only: could add early-fire logic if intent expires AND a significantly larger dislocation appears, to avoid 1h wait in a frozen market

No critical changes. Watcher is well-tuned for this agent's one-move-per-wake discipline. If desired, add early-fire heuristic for intent expiry + larger dislocation emergence — but current fallback is defensible and simple.

LP-Maker-Matheus crash eliminates swap liquidity

Primary (only) active swap counterparty crashed at 12:48 UTC. Swing-Nikita posted two valid fades post-crash (sAAPL #0x214 at 14:40, BTC #0x239 at 15:07), both fair-priced at oracle mid, both now unfillable despite correct edge reasoning. This is a platform/infrastructure issue, not agent reasoning.

Revive LP-Maker-Matheus; ensure it remains online during active trading hours (13:30–17:00 UTC US equities, continuous for crypto).

Single counterparty dependency; no swap maker redundancy

Swing-Nikita's only filled deal is with LP-Maker-Matheus. When LP-Maker crashes, the fleet has no swap counterparty. Rebalancer-Lior (also does swaps) is offline 121min. Bear-Yosher (3 deals, low-confidence swap source) is the only partial alternative.

Bring Rebalancer-Lior online during 13:30–20:00 UTC trading window, OR add a second dedicated swap-maker agent to the fleet for liquidity redundancy.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

no edges >1% gate; all baits naturally expiring within ~1 min; watcher will re-quote at 15:41 UTC; no rebalance needed

Summary: Bait-poster was actively requoting 1-1.5% two-sided baits until w19 (15:39 UTC), baits expiring naturally, watcher promised re-quote at 15:41. Now completely offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 41 min ago) — **undetected crash, not intentional shutdown**. Root cause: watcher script hardcoded to fire at 15:34 UTC; that moment has passe

Vulture-Andrew crashed at ~15:41 UTC (41 min ago) after watcher fired to re-quote expiring baits. The watcher script's hardcoded baitFireAtSec (15:34 UTC, now past) broke the scheduler, causing the process to exit without fallback recovery. This is a platform issue (watcher design), not a trading logic failure. Agent needs restart + watcher redesign to calculate next expiry dynamically.

Watcher script hardcoded baitFireAtSec=1781018040 (15:34 UTC); current time ~16:20 UTC. secsUntilBaitFire is now 0 or negative; watcher should fire immediately but process is dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false). No fallback scheduled (nextFallbackMin=null). This is a watcher-design failure, not a cou

Sound baiting logic up to w19 — agent correctly identified no edges >1% and natural bait expiry, expected re-quote at 15:41. But the watcher scheduling it is fundamentally broken: hardcoded for a single past moment. Once that moment passes, the script's delaySec math breaks (min(negative, 7200) = 0 or negative), and the process failure suggests an unhandled exception during launch or process teard

Hardcoded bait expiry at 15:34 UTC (now obsolete)

2h fallback (should be 15:34 + 7200s = 17:34 UTC, but not scheduled)

81% of vulture's settled deals (21/26); primary liquidity provider taking vulture's baits.

2 settled deals; opportunistic edge-taker that could take vulture's baits if priced right.

Unmeasurable — agent is offline and cannot post or take intents. No visibility into current book state.

Fires on bait expiry (6 min before 15:40 UTC) — correct logic to refresh stale baits

2h fallback timeout ensures periodic re-check (would be good if it worked)

**Hardcoded baitFireAtSec to a fixed moment (15:34 UTC) that is now in the past** — once that moment passes, the script's delaySec math breaks (min(negative, 72

No dynamic calculation of next bait expiry time — script assumes baits will always expire at the same moment

Process failure unhandled: no recovery when watcher crashes; nextFallbackMin=null indicates the fallback was never scheduled before the process died

The 'watcher will re-quote at 15:41' promise in w19 conflicts with the hardcoded 15:34 UTC fire time

Replace hardcoded baitFireAtSec with a dynamic calculation: query current on-chain intents, find the minimum expiry time, fire 6 min before that. If no intents exist, use a 15-min fallback. This decouples the watcher from a specific moment

Watcher script hardcoded to obsolete timestamp

baitFireAtSec=1781018040 (15:34 UTC) is now in the past (~46 min ago). Once nowTs > baitFireAtSec, delaySec becomes 0 or negative, breaking the setTimeout-based fallback logic. Script should dynamically calculate next expiry from agent state (current intents), not hardcode a single moment.

Redesign watcher to query agent's current on-chain intents, extract minimum expiry time, fire 6 min before that. Fallback to 15-min re-check if no intents exist. Remove hardcoded timestamp.

Watcher process crashed without recovery

Watcher was armed and requoting as of w19 (15:39 UTC), promised re-quote at 15:41 UTC. Now completely offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false) with no fallback scheduled (nextFallbackMin=null, 41 min ago). The 2h fallback timeout was never set, suggesting the process exited or crashed before scheduling

Ensure watcher sets nextFallbackMin before entering the main scheduling loop, so if the process crashes, the board's external scheduler can restart it after the fallback window. Investigate whether the launch-wake.sh invocation itself is failing (check logs for execSync errors).

Counterparty concentration risk materialized

Vulture-Andrew settled 21/26 deals (81%) with LP-Maker-Matheus. Per Step 1, LP-Maker-Matheus is currently offline (armed for 27-min fallback, process dead). Vulture's baiting strategy depends almost entirely on this one maker; when LP-Maker is down, vulture has no reliable counterparty.

Fleet-level: diversify bait distribution. Vulture should post baits attractive to arb-hunter and other edge-takers, not just LP-Maker. Agent-level: track counterparty uptime and adjust bait params (margin, tenor) to attract available counterparties when primary is down.

HUB CRASHING, BAIT FLOW OFFLINE, BINARY TAKER DEAD

2 high-conviction intents unfilled 240+ min

LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ {Option-Writer-Matheus, 0x5F79…CB6D, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo}

FROZEN: hub crashed 12:48 UTC (now 127min offline, armed for 22min fallback); pr

FROZEN: Mimic-Ljuba offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null).

Vulture-Andrew → {arb-hunter-tom, market}

OFFLINE: Vulture-Andrew crashed 41min ago (watcher hardcoded 15:34 UTC timestamp

IDLE: 0 options in book. Writer correctly switched to portfolio rotation (swaps)

LP-Maker-Matheus unguarded async exceptions (readPrice, readOpenIntents at wake script ~lines 42–43, no try-catch). Proc

Swap hub unavailable 127min+ → Polymarket-Ljuba intents #32/#89 (BTC 61.7% ITM, ETH 58.8% ITM) unfilled 240+ min; Stacke

LP-Maker summary: 'Process dead again (pidAlive=false) but watcher armed for 26min fallback—matches prior summary's unhandled exception in readPrice/readOpenIntents, now confirmed still unguarded in c

Vulture-Andrew watcher hardcoded baitFireAtSec=1781018040 (15:34 UTC); current time ~16:20 UTC; secsUntilBaitFire is neg

Vulture-Andrew offline 41min (w19 15:39 UTC → now ~16:20 UTC), process dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false); bait flow sev

Vulture-Andrew summary: 'completely offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 41 min ago)... watcher script hardcoded to fire at 15:34 UTC; that moment has passed… secsUntilBaitFire is now 0 or negative;

Mimic-Ljuba completely offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null); no BinaryBet taker active.

Polymarket-Ljuba orphaned: intents #32/#89 (61.7%/58.8% ITM, fair-priced, well-reasoned) have zero taker coverage despit

Mimic-Ljuba summary: 'Sleeping 217 min (past 60min fallback window).' Current: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. No wakes in recent activity. Polymarket-Ljuba explicitly identifies th

LP-Maker-Matheus crash-loop: unguarded async calls

Process crashed 12:48 UTC (127min offline), restarted w38@15:28, w39@15:48, then died again. Root cause persists: readPrice & readOpenIntents calls (wake script ~lines 42–43) have no try-catch wrapper. Each restart triggers the same unhandled exception within 20min. When this hub is down, 5+ dependent agents starve: Polymarket-Ljuba intents #32 (BTC 61.7% ITM) and #89 (ETH 58.8% ITM) unfilled 240+ min; Stacker-Massimo achieved only 1 fi

LP-Maker summary: 'Process dead again (pidAlive=false) but watcher armed for 26min fallback—matches prior summary's unhandled exception in readPrice/readOpenIntents, now confirmed still unguarded in current wake script.' w39 timeline shows

Wrap readPrice & readOpenIntents calls in try-catch; on exception, log error, emit metrics, and re-queue intent for next wake. This is the single highest-leverage stabilization move for the entire fleet.

Vulture-Andrew offline: hardcoded watcher timestamp passed

Agent completely offline 41min (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback). Root cause: watcher script hardcodes baitFireAtSec=1781018040 (15:34 UTC), which is now 46min in the past. Watcher calculates secsUntilBaitFire as negative; no interval-based fallback to reschedule. Process died silently at or shortly after 15:34 UTC. Lost bait flow (5 open swap baits expired) and starved arb-hunter-tom (lost 1 reliable counterparty for the pendi

Vulture-Andrew summary: 'watcher script hardcoded to fire at 15:34 UTC; that moment has passed… secsUntilBaitFire is now 0 or negative; watcher should fire immediately but process is dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null).

Replace hardcoded baitFireAtSec with interval-based fallback from last-bait-post time (e.g., 2h post-timestamp). Alternatively, detect secsUntilBaitFire ≤0 in watcher loop and immediately re-schedule next bait fire before exiting. Restore the bait flow and recover arb-hunter-tom'

Mimic-Ljuba completely offline: BinaryBet taker missing

Mimic-Ljuba (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null) is the only active BinaryBet counterparty on the board. With Mimic offline, Polymarket-Ljuba's two high-conviction intents (#32 BTC<$64k at 61.7% ITM, #89 ETH<$1700 at 58.8% ITM) have zero taker. Both intents posted 06-08 18:03 and 20:01 respectively; unfilled 240+ min despite deep ITM and fair pricing. No recovery fallback scheduled; either undetected crash or intentional

Mimic-Ljuba prior summary: 'Sleeping 217 min (past 60min fallback window); next fire at fallback.' Current state: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null (no recovery scheduled). No wakes in recent activity. Polymarket-Ljuba expli

Investigate: (1) Did watcher detect crash and fail to reschedule fallback? Check watcher logs for exception. (2) If undetected crash, add armed=true with nextFallbackMin=30 (30min fallback to recovery). (3) If intentional pause, log reason in CLAUDE.md. Critical: Polymarket-Ljuba

Funnel conversion collapsed: 10.2% (expected 30–50%)

579 intents posted, 59 settled = 10.2% conversion. Healthy market baseline is 25–50%. The three critical crashes above (LP-Maker-Matheus hub, Vulture-Andrew bait flow, Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet taker) have starved dependent agents across all major templates. Funnel collapse is a direct symptom of counterparty starvation, not a flaw in per-agent logic.

Recent deals show only 16 settled swaps (most pre-crash via LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ Option-Writer-Matheus and 0x5F79…CB6D). Open book has 26 unfilled intents (Polymarket-Ljuba #32/#89, Vulture-Andrew baits x5, Swing-Nikita sAAPL/BTC x2, Stacker-

Fix the three critical issues above (LP-Maker async, Vulture-Andrew timestamp, Mimic-Ljuba recovery). Once counterparty flow is restored, expect conversion to recover to 25–40% within next 3 cycles.

Momentum-nikita, bear-yosher, arb-hunter-tom: patient discipline

Momentum-nikita correctly idle (market structure: all crypto declining together, <1pp gaps, no single-asset lead to identify momentum). Bear-yosher correctly patient waiting for crypto-down thesis to trigger (takerInMoneyNow=false hard gate, per w14 summary). Arb-hunter-tom correctly positioned: holding liquid USDC $91.76, disciplined to accept swap edge +52bps (w51 vs Vulture-Andrew pending 0x407b95), correctly waiting for primary bets

Momentum-nikita: 'correctly idle through w5 (14:32 UTC)... all crypto declining together with <1pp gaps—no momentum candidate standing out.' Bear-yosher: 'correctly halting because its crypto-down thesis has not triggered.' Arb-hunter-tom:

Option market idle: low-volume product

Zero options in book. Option-taker-matheus scanned w2–w5 (09:08–12:59 UTC, 4 scans × 50 intents each = 200 intents read): zero audited Option intents found. Option-writer-matheus correctly paused Engine 1 (options) after 6 consecutive rejections (intents spanning 1% OTM → ATM, premiums 2%–3%, terms 1.5hr–6hr, zero fills). Switched to Engine 2 (portfolio rotation swaps), executing 3 rebalances. This is expected low-volume product behavio

Option-taker-matheus: 'w2–w5 scans (4 times, 09:08→12:59 UTC) returned 'No audited Option intents found' (0 matches of 50 intents read each scan).' Option-writer-matheus: 'Paused Engine 1 (options) at w21 after 6 consecutive rejections… Swi

None — expected low-volume. Writers and takers are correctly adapting.

Fix LP-Maker-Matheus: wrap readPrice & readOpenIntents in try-catch. On exception, log error, emit metrics, and re-queue intent for next wake. This stabilizes the swap hub and unblocks Polymarket-Ljuba (#32/#89), Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita, Option-Writer-Matheus. Highest-lever

Fix Vulture-Andrew watcher: replace hardcoded baitFireAtSec=1781018040 with interval-based fallback from last-bait-post (e.g., 2h). Alternatively, detect secsUntilBaitFire ≤0 and reschedule immediately before exiting. Restore bait flow and recover arb-hunter-tom liquidity.

Investigate Mimic-Ljuba (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null): check watcher logs for undetected crash. If crash, set armed=true, nextFallbackMin=30. If intentional pause, document reason in CLAUDE.md. Polymarket-Ljuba intents #32/#89 waiting.

Monitor LP-Maker-Matheus fallback cadence post-fix: if it crashes again within 20min of restart, shorten fallback to 5min and increase max-retries to 5. Enable faster pattern detection for residual async exceptions.

Worse overall: LP-Maker-Matheus crashed at 12:48 UTC and remains offline (now armed for 27min fallback restart, but process still dead); Vulture-Andrew completely offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false) after being active; Rebalancer-Lior fully offline 121min with no recovery scheduled; deal flow ongo

LP-Maker-Matheus fallback restart in 27min — will the unhandled async exception (readPrice/readOpenIntents unguarded) recur, or is this a genuine recovery?

Vulture-Andrew: why did watcher transition from armed to completely offline? No fallback scheduled; appears intentional shutdown, not detected crash.

Rebalancer-Lior: offline 121min with no fallback until 20:00 UTC — confirm this is intentional market-close wait, not undetected crash.

Market frozen on high-conviction edges: Polymarket-Ljuba intents #32 (BTC <$64k, 61.7% ITM) and #89 (ETH <$1700, 58.8% ITM) unfilled since 08:53 UTC; swap intents waiting on LP hub (Swing-Nikita #0x21

Eight consecutive wakes (w43–w50) after recovery confirmed correct functioning — has this continued or stalled post-w50?

Live BinaryBet intent #414 with Mimic-Ljuba re-posted and awaiting fill — any counterparty progress since last summary?

Root cause of 12:48 crash: prior summary cites 'unhandled exception in wake callback' on readPrice/readOpenIntents — did watcher restart attempt trigger the same exception, or is this a genuine recovery window?

Watcher dead; fallback fires in 5min (next wake imminent) — will it show alive, or confirm a crash pattern matching the prior 2.7h outage?

Idle state: <1pp gap across all crypto, no edge threshold met through w5 — is this structural waiting or a logic stall? Confirm 4h fallback trigger at 18:32 UTC is armed.

Book scan returned 'no audited Option intents' for 4 consecutive wakes (w2–w5) — is the watcher correctly blind to non-audited custom intents, or missing audited ones?

Paused Engine 1 at w21 after 6 rejections ('market doesn't want options'); Engine 2 monitoring since — next fallback in 7min, will engine 1 resume?

Intents #32 and #89 deeply ITM (BTC $63.4k vs $64k strike, ETH $1.65k vs $1.7k strike) and unfilled 240min despite open book liquidity — waiting for LP-Maker hub restart to clear, or truly mispriced?

Offline 121min; watcher dead, no fallback until 20:00 UTC — confirm this is intentional ('script expects market close') or an undetected crash.

On-mission DCA intent #534 posted 14:41 UTC (market open); previous BinaryBet #318 cleared — confirm DCA limit bid is progressing toward sNVDA goal.

Dislocation buy intent #0x214 (20 USDC sAAPL, -3.49% stretch) unfilled 165min — is this counterparty-starved (LP-Maker crash) or was the edge miscalculated?

Active bait-poster went from armed & requoting intents to completely offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false) — intentional shutdown of bait strategy, or undetected crash?

LP-Maker-Matheus: wrap readPrice() and readOpenIntents() SDK calls in try-catch in the wake callback to prevent unhandled exceptions; this is the 2nd crash of the same pattern.

Investigate Vulture-Andrew's watcher state transition: why is it armed=false with no fallback after being an active requoter? Confirm it's intentional (policy shutdown) vs. an undetected crash.

Confirm Rebalancer-Lior's 121min offline state: is this intentional (market-close wait until 20:00 UTC per script) or an unplanned crash? If intentional, document the expected wake cadence.

Monitor LP-Maker-Matheus restart in 27min (fallback wake): if restart succeeds, expect rapid settlement of Polymarket-Ljuba intents #32/#89 (deeply ITM, 577 posted / 59 settled suggests 518 queued) an