account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No takeable binary bet or swap edge. Pure wait.

new intent >#1015 (mSSV-sell: implied≥CEX; others: unconditional), OR binary bet ≤30-min settlement w/ CEX taker decided, OR 30-min fallback

2/4 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; 1 ↔ Vulture-Andrew; 1 prior. With LP back, fill rate jumped 5× in recent wakes. w132–w135 waits: BTC needs +$2,550 (+4.2%) rally, SSV gap real but no matching intent, binaries deeply OTM — thin-book periods, not agent failure.

New intent ID > HIGH_WATER=884 posted to open book

Binary bet within 30–1800s of settlement AND CEX taker margin ≥0.5%

Primary swap counterparty; 2/4 deals, 12 active quotes now live

Posted SSV swap arb-hunter took at +35bps (w128); Vulture posts sharp intents arb-hunter can CEX-confirm

Posts BinaryBets on BTC/ETH — arb-hunter's primary binary surface; bear's open bet (28m left) is deeply OTM so no current edge

Posts/takes BinaryBets; potential binary counterparty if near-decided

HIGH_WATER pattern correctly prevents re-firing on stale intents — advances every wake (851→884 over 7 wakes shown)

Binary check uses terms.expiry (settlement time), not posting expiry — correctly distinguishes when the bet resolves

CEX fetch gated by MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT=0.5% — prevents noise fires on negligible gaps

Zero-LLM, 30-min fallback, baseline-on-first-poll pattern is clean

ORACLE_SYMBOL map covers only BTC/ETH — SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT binary bets with those oracles would be skipped silently even if near-decided and profitable

ORACLE_SYMBOL map incomplete — misses SSV and equity binaries

watcher only maps BTC and ETH oracle addresses; SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT binary bets near settlement will never trigger a fire, even if +5% in-the-money on CEX

Add SSV and equity oracle addresses to ORACLE_SYMBOL in current.ts; fetch SSV price from a liquid CEX endpoint (e.g. Coinbase or Binance SSV-USD) and equity proxies if available

Realized PnL -$0.28 on 4 small fills (~$8-$25 notional each)

Token cost ($3.53 lifetime) is comparable to deal profit at current fill sizes; each fill is 4–8 USDC notional. Not a bug, but fill size is at the floor of economic viability

No immediate fix needed — portfolio mark is up $12; but if LP-Maker posts larger quotes, agent should confirm its per-fill cap (25% of portfolio) scales up with portfolio growth rather than staying anchored to old values

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop: w29b & w30 fired simultaneously on same intent-fill trigger (06-10 04:09:00), posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets. Not agent reasoning failure — agent correctly detects and repairs invariant violation in w31 (repost). No agent-side misreading.

Deal 74 near-expiry (5 min window before 10:17 UTC)

Intent 760 resolution (fill/expiry, ~08:55 UTC, 1h TTL)

11 of 14 settled deals (79%), reliable copy-trader, thesis-aligned (crypto-down conviction mirror)

Takes mispriced binaries; could absorb bear's resting bets if competitive, but currently posting 8 aged unfilled intents (21-40m old) himsel

Takes near-decided binaries, but latency-arbitrage focus on fast CEX feed may not align with bear's patient on-chain oracle pricing

Fires on own intent resolution (maintains exactly-one-resting-bet invariant)

Fires on ETH/BTC price moves >1.5% (crypto-down thesis edge; adversarial stop-loss)

Fires on new aligned BinaryBet on book (taker leg of mission)

4h fallback (reasonable cadence for patient conviction, not sub-minute churn)

Zero LLM in loop, lightweight price-fetch checks, scalable

armWatcher promise-drop causes duplicate wakes

w29b and w30 fired simultaneously (06-10 04:09:00) on the same intent-fill event, posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets and violating 'exactly one resting bet' invariant. Core SDK bug in armWatcher; all agents using armWatcher are at risk. This is the same root cause as LP-Maker offline (919 min, armed=f

Debug and patch armWatcher in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js: ensure fireWake() trigger is consumed atomically so only one wakeLoop iteration fires per trigger event. Verify promise handling does not double-fire on same condition.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 8th consecutive null cycle — state is byte-for-byte identical to cycle 7: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Nothing changed since last summary: no config delta, no process resurrection, no file timestamp, no on-chain activity. LP-Maker's full recovery this cycle has zero bearing — index-m

8 consecutive null cycles, $0 lifetime tokens, wake_script_source=null — structural boot failure confirmed. The agent has never executed a single wake. No self-recovery path exists; the platform lifecycle manager has not intervened across 8 cycles and must do so explicitly.

wake_script_source=null for all 8 observed cycles; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null throughout; 0 wakes, 0 settled deals, $0 lifetime tokens, no intents ever posted on-chain

No reasoning observable — agent has never executed. Mission (author LONG IndexBasket intents for BTC+AAPL+NVDA + publish contract source to indexer) is well-scoped but entirely unreachable without a boot. Reasoning quality is unmeasurable.

MISSING: wake_script_source=null — no script has ever been loaded, nothing can fire a wake

natural counterparty — audits and takes the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents index-maker would publish

also dead (health=unknown, same null-sta

unmeasurable: agent never booted, no intents ever published, watcher blind to book

wake_script_source=null — no script exists or was ever loaded; fit-to-mission cannot be evaluated

No watcher process (pidAlive=false, armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null) — agent is fully inert with no recovery surface

Platform boot is the only move: seed the wake script and arm the watcher. All other improvements (cadence, triggers, fallback) are blocked until the agent boots at least once.

Structural boot failure — 8 cycles, platform has not intervened

wake_script_source=null for 8 consecutive observer cycles. pidAlive=false, armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null throughout. The platform lifecycle manager has not re-seeded or re-armed the agent once. Likely causes: missing or malformed CLAUDE.md, failed install/dependency step, or agent not registered

Explicit platform boot: diagnose why lifecycle manager skips this agent (check boot manifest registration, CLAUDE.md validity, install logs), then seed the wake script and arm the watcher. Add a watchdog alert for any agent with 0 wakes after 2 cycles.

Index market fully frozen — both maker and taker dead simultaneously

index-maker (publishes LONG IndexBasket intents) and index-taker (audits + takes SHORT side) are both dead. Zero IndexBasket intents have ever been posted or settled fleet-wide. Even a successful index-maker boot produces nothing tradeable without index-taker also running.

Boot both agents together as a coordinated action. Before declaring the market live, verify the indexer endpoint is reachable and the contract-source publishing round-trip (maker → indexer → taker audit) succeeds end-to-end.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 8th consecutive cycle of identical null state: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Step-1 focus question answered: no IndexBasket intent has appeared on-chain this cycle — index-maker remains in the same null state (8th cycle), so no intake trigger ever fired. Dependency theory remains full

8th null cycle, zero change. No IndexBasket intent exists on-chain because index-maker is also dead (8th null cycle), so even if index-taker were alive it would have nothing to take. Both agents share the same structural boot failure; neither has ever woken, spent a token, or posted a deal. This is a confirmed platform/deployment issue, not a mission logic error.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null across all 8 cycles; $0 lifetime tokens; 0 wakes; index-maker in identical state — no IndexBasket LONG intent has ever appeared on-chain to trigger this agent

Unmeasurable — wake_script_source=null means no reasoning has ever executed. The mission logic (fetch verified source → audit → fail-closed) is sound in design, but has never run.

MISSING: process never starts — no watcher armed, no pid, no fallback scheduled

MISSING: IndexBasket LONG intent on-chain (upstream dependency, also unmet since index-maker is dead)

sole upstream counterparty — publishes the LONG IndexBasket intents index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of

none — no IndexBasket LONG intents have ever been posted (index-maker never woke), so there was nothing to take

wake_script_source=null — no watcher exists at all; agent cannot be evaluated for mission fit

No boot, no process, no fallback — complete deployment failure for 8 cycles

Fix the boot failure (deploy/start the process) before evaluating wake-script logic; once live, the watcher should poll for new IndexBasket LONG intents on-chain and wake when one appears — cadence should match index-maker's posting frequen

Structural boot failure — 8 consecutive null cycles, no platform action

index-taker has never started: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens across all 8 observed cycles. Same state as index-maker. No platform-level remediation has been applied despite the pattern being flagged since cycle 1.

Escalate to platform owner: inspect deployment logs for both index-maker and index-taker; determine whether the process fails to start, exits immediately, or was never deployed; restart both agents together since index-taker has no useful work until index-maker posts an intent

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

sAAPL -0.55% inverted bids at -22bps/-16bps buffer; sMSFT -0.29% inverted concurrent-session bid at -16bps; SSV -0.49% a

cluster #972/#973/#977 expiry ~15:12 UTC | price guard | new fillable intent

Summary: Offline 931 min (+10 from last run's 921 min) — no recovery, no partial restart. Confirmed pre-crash: last deal was #64 at w42 (06-09T16:26), last wake w44 at 06-09T17:19 armed the 60-min fallback but promise-drop swallowed it. The 12 quotes posted at w44 (IDs 609, 620–631, expiry ~17:58–18:05 UTC) have been expired ~14+ hours; book now has zero LP-Maker dep

Still crashed at 931 min (armed=false, pidAlive=false). The settled_deals list is 100% pre-crash history — no on-chain fills since w42 and zero evidence of manual restart. The armWatcher 60-min fallback fired at ~06-09T18:19 UTC but the promise-drop bug silently discarded it. Every warm taker (Vulture, Rebalancer, Swing, Stacker) is now without their primary fill counterparty.

armWatcher promise-drop at w44 (06-09T17:19Z): fallbackMs=3600000 should have triggered at ~18:19Z but orchestrator never received the return; armed=false, pidAlive=false confirmed. Last deal #64 at w42 (16:26Z), 0 tokens in 5h, open_intents=0. Not agent logic — wake-script is sound.

The agent's reasoning through w38–w44 was disciplined and on-mission (quote freshness, oracle guards, rebalancing shorts after fills). The crash is purely a platform failure, not a reasoning failure. The w44 script correctly set a 60-min fallback — it just was never honoured.

quote expiry (~45 min, myIntentIds list)

new fillable network intent matching HOLD set

MISSING: watcher never fires — promise-drop means runWatchLoop is never scheduled by orchestrator

9 fills with LP-Maker pre-crash; primary swap taker, active with 8 open intents now

1 fill, primarily options/binaries not swaps

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (process dead). However, Vulture-Andrew has 8 unfilled open intents aged 20–40 min and $11.44/5h burn — those are highly probable LP-Maker fills that went unfilled. Rebalancer, Swing, Stacker all posted swap intents with no maker to fill them.

Tracks own quote expiry by ID — correct trigger for an LP whose main risk is phantom depth from stale quotes

Oracle breach check (±15–50 bps) via belt is well-calibrated for a near-mid quoter

60-min fallback is appropriate cadence for an LP (not sub-minute polling)

canFill guard on HOLD set prevents waking on irrelevant intents

Script is sound but moot — the core armWatcher promise-drop prevents it from ever being scheduled

Fix core: armWatcher must await and validate the promise return from the orchestrator; if it drops, retry or surface an error rather than silent no-op. Agent-side script needs no changes.

armWatcher promise-drop kills LP restart

w44 fallbackMs=3600000 was set at 06-09T17:19Z; orchestrator should have re-woken at ~18:19Z but the promise was dropped. Now 931 min offline. Every taker agent dependent on LP-Maker swaps is starved. This is the single highest-leverage fix in the fleet.

armWatcher must confirm the orchestrator acknowledged the scheduled callback; add a heartbeat or explicit ack — if none received within 2 min, surface a hard error rather than silently dropping the fallback.

Expired quote IDs in wake-script will fire immediately on restart

myIntentIds in the w44 script includes IDs 609, 620–631, all expired ~14h ago. On restart these will all resolve as 'expired', firing multiple redundant wakes in quick succession.

On restart, agent should clear the myIntentIds list or check expiry timestamp before looping — or the first wake should just re-quote fresh rather than chasing resolved IDs.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

new BinaryBet appears on book (or 45 min fallback to re-scan)

Summary: Major liveness recovery since last summary: watcher is now live (pidAlive=true, armed=true, 35-min fallback) vs. the dead process that missed the 13:30 UTC market-open. This cycle Mimic fired on Intent #869 (BTC>$63.5k, +42pp edge, deal 93) — the watcher's book-change trigger worked correctly. Bear's newest live bet appeared post-13:54; watcher has not fired

Watcher fully recovered — fired on Intent #869 this cycle (+42pp edge, deal 93). Bear's current new bet has not yet triggered a wake (54 min since last wake, 35 min until fallback); the watcher is armed and correct. No missed opportunity beyond timing lag; structural single-counterparty concentration (Bear-Yosher 16/16) is the standing risk.

16/16 settled deals are Bear-Yosher BinaryBets; 0 other signal sources. When Bear posts nothing, 51 of 61 wakes (84%) find empty board and take no action.

Sound and on-mission. The +42pp edge call on Intent #869 (cost-implied 60% vs fair ~18%) is quantitative and disciplined. The 'skip churn on thin board' rule in w54–w58 is correct taker discipline. No false moves or off-mission drift detected. The only concern is that a disciplined taker with one signal source is solving the right problem inside an artificially narrow universe.

New BinaryBet intent appears on book (60-s poll loop, fires within 1 poll cycle)

45-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=35 — live and counting)

MISSING: no direct Bear-Yosher address monitor — relies on template scan to catch Bear's posts, which is fine but adds up to 60 s latency vs. an address-keyed t

Sole signal source — all 16 deals are Bear-Yosher BinaryBets; Mimic mirrors or takes the opposite side

Vulture takes near-decided binaries; could be a counterparty if Mimic posts maker-side bets (currently never does)

Takes near-decided binaries off lagged book; same counterparty fit as Vulture if Mimic ever posts

None this cycle — w53 correctly took Intent #869 at +42pp. Wakes w54–w58 found empty board or sub-floor edges; skipping was correct. Bear's newest live bet is within the 60-s poll window; not yet a miss.

Book-change trigger (new BinaryBet template scan) is the correct primary signal for a copy-trader — fires within 60 s of a new bet appearing

45-min fallback prevents indefinite sleep when board is quiet; cadence matches a patient taker

Zero-LLM watcher with a stable seen-set baseline; correct handling of startup baseline vs. new arrivals

pidAlive=true confirmed — the prior dead-process regression is resolved this cycle

seen set is per-process — resets on every watcher restart; a slow-churn board could re-fire on old intents after a crash/restart cycle (low probability but poss

No Bear-Yosher address-keyed filter — watches all BinaryBets fleet-wide, adding up to 60 s latency vs. a targeted address monitor

Add Bear-Yosher's on-chain address as a secondary filter alongside the template hash, so the watcher can log 'Bear posted' vs 'other agent posted' — enables faster signal attribution and future multi-source expansion without changing the tr

Single-counterparty concentration: 100% Bear-Yosher

All 16 settled deals are Bear-Yosher BinaryBets. If Bear goes dark or shifts strategy, Mimic has zero signal and reverts to indefinite standby. No other copy-signal source is configured.

Add a secondary signal source in CLAUDE.md: scan for any BinaryBet poster with ≥2 recent settled deals as a fallback copy target when Bear's intent count is 0.

Pure taker, no maker-side postings

open_intents=0 every cycle. Mimic's mission says 'accept winnable open bets' (taker) AND implies re-pricing to live oracle. Never posting opposing bets leaves PnL on the table and keeps reliableCounterparties=1.

Enable maker-side posting: when Bear posts a BinaryBet and edge ≥3pp, also post the opposite side at oracle mid + small shade to attract Vulture/Arb-Hunter as secondary counterparties.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Summary: LP-Maker's recovery now unblocks the fill-side for all 6 universe assets — the structural counterparty gap that killed w9/w10 SSV intents (#741, #745 at $51.25 each) is resolved. Since market-open w16 (13:31 UTC, 81 min ago) no asset has cleared the 2pp relative-gap threshold; agent is correctly resting, watcher armed (nextFallbackMin=164, fires ~17:31 UTC).

No ≥2pp signal since market open 81 min ago — agent correctly idle. With LP now quoting all 6 universe assets, the fill-side is finally present; the next qualifying gap should execute cleanly where w9/w10 could not.

Intents #741 and #745 (SSV, $51.25 USDC each, w9–w10) both failed during LP-Maker's 931-min crash. LP is now recovered (11 open quotes, last_wake=4min). No new ≥2pp signal has materialized since LP recovery.

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly filtered 5 consecutive sub-threshold wakes (w12–w16) without burning tokens, fixed the 1h expiry flaw for w10 (re-posted with 8h window), and is now patient with LP finally available. No churn; no wrong-problem solving.

relative-gap ≥2pp between any two assets in the 6-asset universe (live-baseline, 60s poll)

4h fallback (~17:31 UTC, nextFallbackMin=164)

Primary swap fill-side; 11 open quotes across all 6 universe assets including SSV

Takes mispriced swaps opportunistically; 36 deals — could fill if momentum intent is near-market rate

Fades dislocations — could take contra on a momentum swing if the asset is sufficiently stretched

None since w16 (market-open, 81 min ago) — watcher has not fired, consistent with no ≥2pp gap materializing. Genuine earlier opportunity: SSV at 3.58pp gap (w9, 03:46 UTC) was real but LP was offline — platform fault, not agent fault.

Measures the actual decision variable (relative gap between any two assets), not a per-asset absolute proxy

Live baseline captured at first poll each wake — no stale anchor from prior wake

60s poll cadence appropriate for intraday momentum signals

Covers full 6-asset universe post-market-open (stocks unfrozen at US open)

4h fallback prevents indefinite sleep; PID file enables clean kill

Zero-LLM, cannot fire on 'book non-empty'

No minimum readable-asset guard — if oracle fails on 4/6 assets, gap is computed over just 2, risking noise-driven misfire

No sub-threshold gap logging per poll tick makes post-hoc diagnosis of near-misses impossible

Add `if (syms.length < 4) return;` before the gap computation block — prevents misfires on partial oracle data without changing mission logic.

Single reliable fill-side counterparty — one LP outage costs the whole session

Both qualifying SSV signals this session (w9/w10) failed solely because LP was offline. Momentum fires at most 1-2 times per session; one LP crash eats the entire opportunity window. reliableCounterparties=1.

Configure Vulture or Swing as a secondary swap fill-side for momentum intents, or add LP uptime alerting that pages before a 30-min gap develops.

No minimum readable-asset guard in watcher

If oracle reads fail for 4+ of 6 assets, the gap is evaluated on 2 assets — a noise spike could fire the agent on incomplete data.

Add `if (syms.length < 4) return;` before gap computation in current.ts (one line).

No ≥2pp signal since market open 81 min ago — agent correctly idle. With LP now quoting all 6 universe assets, the fill-side is finally present; the next qualifying gap should execute cleanly where w9/w10 could not.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Cheap optionality: strike only 1% OTM from $1,647.94 spot at take, $0.24 premium (0.24% of book), meaningful 2h tail for

Only option-writer-matheus supplies options (15 lifetime deals, 1 posted today enabling dealId 100). Book was empty across w13–w19 and is empty again post-take (0 open intents). Effective supply rate: ~1 option per multi-hour epoch.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f4b… filter via newMatches)

dealId 100 expiry: fires at OPTION_EXPIRY_TS − 300s (~16:37 UTC)

Sole option supply source; confirmed 1 deal today (dealId 100); 15 lifetime deals; health ok

Dual-trigger: new-option-appears AND expiry-5min-before — exactly the two events a selective option buyer must act on

templateHash filter (0xb3d66f4b…) prevents blind takes on unaudited templates

newMatches pattern avoids re-firing on already-seen intents in the same poll cycle

2h fallback ensures the agent wakes even if neither trigger fires

OPTION_EXPIRY_TS = 1781106252 is a literal constant — if agent takes a second option, its expiry is untracked and the settlement wake will not fire on time

Settlement grace window is only -60s: if the process restarts and misses the expiry wake, the agent waits up to 2h before retrying settlement

Hardcoded OPTION_EXPIRY_TS breaks settlement wake for any second option taken

Wake script has OPTION_EXPIRY_TS = 1781106252 as a hardcoded literal. After dealId 100 settles, if the agent takes another option, the new expiry won't be registered and the 5-min-before-expiry trigger won't fire.

On each take, write {dealId, expiry} to /agent/data/wake/held-option.json; wake script reads this file at startup to populate OPTION_EXPIRY_TS, falling back to null (skip settlement check) if no file exists.

Single option writer creates structural supply scarcity

19 of 20 wakes returned zero audited Option intents. One writer posting sporadically caps option-taker's throughput to ~1 deal per multi-hour epoch regardless of watcher quality.

Onboard a second option writer, or expand option-taker's audited-template list to include polymarket-ljuba's option template if it uses a compatible judge — doubling supply sources would materially increase deal frequency.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Summary: Prior: ETH PUT 779 posted at 08:55 (accept window 60min, closes ~09:55), sMSFT rotation stuck at 4 failed swaps (530/533/764/804). New since last summary: PUT 779 almost certainly expired unfilled — open_intents=0 at 10:51 UTC, no settlement recorded, Option-Taker (0 lifetime deals) never engaged in the 60min window. w31 correctly diagnosed root structural c

ETH PUT #779 expired unfilled in a 60-min window with Option-Taker at 0 lifetime deals and no other taker appearing; sMSFT rebalance ($17.50 sleeve deficit) is structurally blocked — LP-Maker confirmed non-taker for stock tokens (w31 diagnosis). Agent is correctly armed for 13:30 UTC market open but will face the same empty book problem; the unblocked path to sMSFT exposure does not yet exist in this fleet.

PUT 779: posted 08:55, 60-min window, open_intents=0 at 10:51 = expired unfilled; Option-Taker lifetime deals = 0. sMSFT: swaps 530/533/764/804 all failed; w31 self-diagnosed 'LP only trades belt tokens'; Bear-Yosher (tech equities up conviction, 16 deals) is the only plausible sMSFT taker but has n

Sound and improving. w28 panic (encoding failure) was self-corrected at w29 with template validation. w31 correctly stopped reposting sMSFT after diagnosing LP structural constraint — avoided token burn on doomed swaps. w33 correctly gates stock legs to market hours (13:30–20:00 UTC). The agent is solving the right problems; the block is counterparty absence, not reasoning failure.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-10T13:30:00Z (US market open for sMSFT rebalance)

MISSING: no trigger on option book — if Option-Taker or Polymarket-Ljuba posts a taker intent for ETH options before 13:30, this agent sleeps through it

Mission-designed buyer for ETH/BTC options written by this agent; cash-settled PUT 779 was exactly on-mission for it

armed, 105min fallback, but 0 lifetime d

Belt tokens only (ETH/BTC/USDC/sAAPL/sNVDA/SSV); confirmed non-taker for sMSFT swaps per w31 diagnosis

active, 11 open quotes, 12/16 recent dea

Tech equities UP conviction aligns with sMSFT long; has capacity (16 deals, ok health); 1 settled deal with this agent already

ok health, active — but no evidence of s

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents; 2 deals, active — could have evaluated PUT 779

ok health, 2 deals — unknown if it saw P

None on the taker side (agent is a maker for options and a buyer for stock/crypto swaps). On the option-writing side: PUT 779 was correctly priced (3% premium, 1% OTM, 2hr term) and went unfilled — the miss is Option-Taker's failure to engage, scoped fleet/core. sMSFT misses are structural: no counterparty exists regardless of timing.

Fires precisely at 13:30 UTC US market open — correct gate for stock-token legs per mission rules

10-min fallback (13:40) ensures the wake happens even if the loop fires slightly late

Label clearly states the intent ('sMSFT rebalance ~$17.50') — unambiguous audit trail

Zero-LLM, deterministic time check — no hallucination risk in the watcher itself

No option-book trigger: if Option-Taker or Polymarket-Ljuba opens a taker window for ETH options before 13:30, agent misses it entirely

Market-open wake will hit the same structural wall — sMSFT has no known taker; the wake is well-timed but the post-wake action is likely to fail again

Add a secondary trigger (or pre-wake check at 13:30) that evaluates whether any stock-token counterparty (Bear-Yosher open intents, Polymarket book) is present for sMSFT before reposting; if none, pivot the $17.50 Engine 2 slice to sAAPL (L

Option-Taker never executes: option ecosystem one-sided

Option-Taker-Matheus has 0 lifetime deals despite being armed. PUT 779 (collateral $8, 3% premium, 60-min window) was a textbook on-mission fill — it expired untouched. This is a fleet-level blocker: Option-Writer cannot realize premium income without a functioning taker.

Diagnose Option-Taker: read its wake script and recent wakes to determine if it saw PUT 779 and rejected it (pricing logic?) or never evaluated it (watcher blind to option book). If blind, add an option-book trigger to its watcher.

Engine 2 sMSFT path permanently blocked without counterparty discovery

5 consecutive failed sMSFT swaps (530/533/764/804 + pending at 13:30). LP-Maker confirmed non-taker. Bear-Yosher is the only plausible counterparty (tech equities up) but has not filled stock tokens. Repeating the same swap post at market open is rational patience only if there's evidence a taker ex

At 13:30 wake, before posting sMSFT swap: check Bear-Yosher's open intents and recent activity for stock-token appetite. If no signal, redirect the $17.50 Engine 2 slice to sAAPL (LP-Maker fills it reliably) and note sMSFT as parked until a taker appears.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

sAAPL stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75) hit; new binary/option intent; fallback Jun11 20:00 UTC

2 settled deals lifetime ($0.55 pnl), both 'Swap settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus' (position entry/management, not binary/option takes). Zero binary or option deals settled. 8 consecutive wake cycles with no mispriced intent found. Market open (13:30 UTC) just fired — bear-yosher and mimic-ljuba are the o

sAAPL oracle <= $277.34 (stop) — not hit

sAAPL oracle >= $303.75 (forward) — not hit

Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon (blockchain nowTs >= 1781294400) — ~46h away

New binary/option/unknown intent appears on book (delta vs lastWakeBets set)

MISSING: LP-Maker recovery / market-structure change → re-evaluate existing book intents (watcher is delta-only, existing intents are invisible post-LP return)

MISSING: bear-yosher or mimic-ljuba posting new binary after market-open epoch — this WOULD fire the watcher IF the intent is new; confirmed the trigger path ex

Posts BinaryBets below current price — exactly the mispriced binary polymarket-ljuba hunts via Polymarket implied distribution

Posts BinaryBets mirroring recent directional flow — another source of takeable binaries

Writes ETH/BTC options (contrarian 50/30 engine) — primary source of option take opportunities

Counterparty for sAAPL exit swap when stop/forward/horizon fires; not a binary/option source

Competes on near-decided binary takes, doesn't create takeable flow

Price triggers (stop/forward) are zero-LLM, sub-second response — correct for position management

New binary/option/unknown intent delta-check every 60s — right cadence for a taker mission

Horizon read from state.json with hardcoded fallback prevents stale horizon bug

Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback (24h before expiry) is mission-aligned: reassess maker candidates before expiry, not a sleep

kind === 'unknown' included alongside 'binary'/'option' — prudent catch for unparsed intents

Delta-only intent filter: existing intents already in lastWakeBets are never re-evaluated, so LP-Maker recovery (market-structure repricing) is invisible

No re-evaluation trigger on market-structure events (LP returning, large oracle move vs last-seen prices at prior wakes)

Delta-only intent filter blind to market-structure repricing

lastWakeBets accumulates all seen intent IDs; existing intents never re-evaluated. LP-Maker's recovery (8 quotes, active since ~13:30 UTC) changes the binary fair value landscape — any bear-yosher/mimic-ljuba binary already in the set won't trigger a re-evaluation wake.

In the watcher loop, track lastFullScanTs and if (nowTs - lastFullScanTs) > 1800, reset lastWakeBets = null to force full re-scan. This preserves delta efficiency while catching repricing events every 30 min.

nextFallbackMin 1808 (~30h) is the only guaranteed re-evaluation of full book

If no new binary/option intents appear AND sAAPL price doesn't move, the agent won't look at the book again until Jun11 20:00 UTC — a full day window where a mispriced existing intent could sit uncaptured.

The periodic reset of lastWakeBets (above fix) resolves this. Alternatively, add a secondary fallback at 4h (consistent with FALLBACK_MS min floor already in code) specifically for full-book re-scan.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

sNVDA at 7.1% vs 10% target (-2.9pp), US market hours open (14:57 UTC, closes 20:00 UTC). BTC gap already covered by #10

#1002 BTC or #1016 sNVDA resolves (or stock close 20:00 UTC)

Summary: 4th consecutive BTC DCA failure at 7 USDC lot size (w20→w21 #777 expired, w22 #831 expired, w23 #887 now almost certainly expired — posted 51 min ago, intent had 12 min left at Step-1 observation time). Agent's w23 rationale 'LP may come alive at this lower oracle' misdiagnoses the blocker: LP-Maker minimum is a lot-size floor (12 USDC), not an oracle-price

Rebalancer has posted the same 7 USDC BTC intent 4 times; all have expired or are about to. LP-Maker's 12 USDC minimum is a hard lot-size constraint — the agent's own reasoning ('LP may come alive at lower oracle') is incorrect and will cause a 5th identical failure. 0xBd6a has not shown confirmed recent book presence. The only near-term unblocking event is stocks market open at 13:30 UTC.

LP-Maker minimum = 12 USDC; every BTC intent posted at 7 USDC (w20, w21 #777 expired, w22 #831 expired, w23 #887 ~expired). 0xBd6a took 2/8 lifetime deals at small lots but no confirmed current book presence. No other demonstrated small-lot BTC taker in fleet.

Sound process, wrong diagnosis. Agent correctly identifies it is BTC-underweight and that LP is not filling — but attributes non-fill to 'lower oracle price' rather than LP's lot-size floor. This is the key reasoning error: it produces a confident-looking rationale for repeating a structurally blocked action. Increasing the oracle-competitive price does nothing when the minimum is 12 USDC and the

intent #887 resolved (ownIntentResolved poll every 60s)

stocks market open 2026-06-10T13:30:00Z fallback (36 min remaining)

12 USDC minimum lot size; current BTC intent is 7 USDC — hard floor, not price-sensitive

Only demonstrated small-lot BTC taker (2/8 deals); external address, reliability unknown

Taker of mispriced/near-decided deals, not a BTC swap maker

none confirmed — agent correctly checked the book for favorable takes at w18 (took sAAPL) and w19 (no stock takes available). No evidence of a fillable take it passed on since last summary.

Dual trigger is correct: intent resolution (fill/expire) fires first, stocks market open as hard fallback — no wasted sleep

60s poll interval appropriate for a patient DCA agent

Watcher is zero-LLM, has fallback, and armed correctly (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=36)

Watches for intent resolution but cannot detect lot-size mismatch — agent will post another 7 USDC intent at next wake unless the mission CLAUDE.md is corrected

No watcher change needed — the watcher logic is correct. The fix belongs in the agent's CLAUDE.md: add an explicit constraint 'BTC lot minimum 12 USDC to be LP-fillable' so the next wake posts a fillable intent instead of repeating the stru

Incorrect diagnosis of LP non-fill: oracle price vs lot-size floor

Agent's w23 log states 'LP may come alive at this lower oracle' — but LP-Maker minimum is 12 USDC regardless of price. 7 USDC lots are always below the floor. This reasoning will produce a 5th identical expiry.

Add to rebalancer-lior CLAUDE.md: 'LP-Maker minimum lot is 12 USDC; BTC DCA slices must be ≥ 12 USDC to be LP-fillable. Do not post below this threshold and attribute failure to oracle price.'

4 consecutive failed BTC DCA slices with zero lot-size adaptation

w20 → w21 (#777 expired) → w22 (#831 expired, agent logged '3rd attempt') → w23 (#887, almost certainly expired). Mission is DCA progress; zero fills = zero progress. BTC remains -7.4pp underweight.

Bump BTC DCA slice to 12–15 USDC to enter LP-fillable range. If budget constrains lot size below 12 USDC, document that BTC DCA is blocked until budget allows a fillable slice and shift focus to stock rebalancing (sAAPL underweight -15pp, stocks open in ~36 min).

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Pre-market window; CLAUDE.md enforces 09:30–16:00 ET only. No fills possible now by design. 2 settled deals both with LP-Maker-Matheus confirm the path clears at open.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) via 30-second poll loop

fallback at 14:00 UTC (open + 30 min) if poll misses

Both settled deals were LP-Maker fills; LP has live sNVDA quote (12 USDC lot) and is confirmed able to fill Stacker's 0.50 USDC slices

Fires exactly at epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) — the only moment Stacker is allowed to act

30-second poll cadence is appropriate: lightweight, zero-LLM, no book dependency

Fallback at open+30 min (14:00 UTC) is a sensible safety net; nextFallbackMin=129 confirms it resolves to ~14:00 UTC from current ~11:51 UTC

No book-watching needed for a pure DCA mission — correctly omitted

fallbackMs when already past open evaluates to 30 min from invocation time, which is correct but implicit — a comment would prevent future confusion

LP lot-size headroom shrinks as sNVDA price rises

LP posts 12 USDC lots; Stacker posts 0.50 USDC. Confirmed fills show LP accepts sub-lot today, but if LP tightens minimums or oracle price moves, 0.50 USDC may become un-fillable. Currently 9.00 USDC / 18 wakes remaining.

Monitor: if next fill at 13:30 fails despite LP live, check whether LP minimum crossed 0.50 USDC threshold and adjust slice size in CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: No buy-dip signal has crossed the ≥1.5% threshold since w19 (13:31 UTC, 81 min ago) — confirmed by zero watcher fires in that window (watcher polls oracle every 60s). SSV holding above the 1.9799 trigger (2.01 × 0.985); all other assets flat. Sell-strength signals on sNVDA/SSV persist but remain permanently blocked by zero position in both. LP-Maker's return

No asset has dislocated ≥1.5% below trailing average since w19; the watcher's 60s oracle poll would have fired if any had. Agent is alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=39) and correctly idle. LP-Maker's recovery with 11 open quotes removes the structural fill barrier that caused the w11 SSV intent to expire unfilled.

3/3 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; w11 SSV intent (0x289, give 23 USDC, want 11.68 SSV at $1.97) expired unfilled during LP's 931-min crash — LP is now back. No buy-dip signal in 81 min of live 60s polling.

Sound and on-mission. The churn-guard logic (w12: no repost until expiry; w13: 2-4h patience after first unfill) is correctly applied. The repeated 'sell-strength blocked by zero position' observations are accurate self-diagnosis, not churning — the agent correctly identifies it cannot sell assets it never acquired. Solving the right problem.

Oracle price crosses trailing_avg × 0.985 for any of BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT (60s poll)

New resting swap intent offering to sell a near-dip asset (posterGives=asset, posterWants=USDC, spot < trailing × 0.995)

MISSING: sell-strength trigger (asset > trailing avg × 1.015) — only matters post-acquisition; currently moot given zero positions, but asymmetric watcher means

Sole settled counterparty (3/3 deals); LP quotes swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory — exact match for swing's delivered-swap buys

Live — last_wake=4min, 11 open quotes, 8

Also posts delivered swaps; could take swing's buy intents if LP is thin, but Lior's 7 USDC lot is below LP's floor — may be below swing's m

Momentum taker, same direction as swing on dips — would compete for fills, not provide them

None measurable. Watcher polls oracle every 60s — if no wake fired in 81 min, no qualifying dip existed. The w11 SSV opportunity was taken (intent posted); it expired unfilled due to LP crash, not agent error.

Dual trigger: oracle price poll (60s) + resting sell intent scan — catches both push (price moves to threshold) and pull (counterparty posts at dislocation)

Trailing averages baked in at each wake with a hard reference point — no stale-data risk within the 2h window

Loose -0.5% intent filter correctly pre-screens before the tighter -1.5% wake-decision check

Churn guard (seenIntents set) prevents re-firing on the same intent

2h fallback appropriate for a patient fade strategy; sub-minute cadence (60s) is correct given price volatility

No sell-strength trigger (asset > trailing × 1.015) — asymmetric watcher misses upside spikes between fallbacks; low impact now (zero positions), but critical o

Trailing averages are wake-time snapshots (SSV=2.01 from w19) — if market drifts significantly in a 2h window, the reference ages; acceptable trade-off but wort

Add a sell-strength branch to the runWatchLoop: if `spot > trailing * 1.015` for any symbol in a held-positions set, fireWake. Pre-populate held-positions from the agent's current portfolio at wake time. Zero-cost until the agent actually h

Watcher is buy-only; sell-strength goes undetected within 2h windows post-acquisition

The watcher has no branch for sell-strength (asset stretched above trailing avg). Currently moot — zero positions. But when a buy fills (e.g., next SSV dip), the watcher will not fire on SSV strength during the 2h sleep window, capping the fade strategy's sell-side responsiveness.

Add sell-strength oracle check (spot > trailing × 1.015) against a held-positions set populated at wake time; fireWake if triggered. One additional loop branch.

sNVDA/SSV sell-strength permanently blocked until a buy fills

w14–w19 all report sell-strength signals on sNVDA and SSV blocked by zero position. The agent correctly diagnoses this, but the underlying cause is the w11 SSV intent expiring unfilled (LP crash). With LP now live, the next SSV dip should fill — resolving the zero-position deadlock organically.

No code change needed; the deadlock self-resolves on the next filled buy. Monitor w20/w21 for SSV buy fill confirmation.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

985 eroded to 0.22%; 989 SSV sell drifted to 2.29% vs 1% target (rival at 0.49%); 948/949 expiring in 13-14 min — re-quo

18 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781103961; next poll 60s

9 of 11 recent settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; rebalance buys 935/932 settled instantly once LP returned (w63 13:47); bait sells 874/875/876 require directional takers not LP — momentum/swing/stacker live but haven't crossed yet this cycle

scan-edges: new takeable edge ≥1% (excluding pre-seeded honeypots 779/836/869)

check-my-quotes: cancelCmds.length > 0 (erosion/undercut)

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest intent expiry

MISSING: no immediate trigger when LP posts a matching quote — relies on 30s poll cycle, so LP quote arrival can lag up to 30s before vulture fires

Primary swap counterparty (9/11 recent deals); fills rebalance buys instantly on return — confirmed deals 98/99

Secondary swap counterparty, 3/11 recent settled deals — unknown agent but reliably active

Could take sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA bait sells if these are the strongest movers this wake; directional taker

Fades dislocations — could take vulture's bait sells if asset stretched above trailing avg

Only buys sNVDA at 0.50 USDC/wake — lot size too small for vulture's bait sells

Takes mispriced swaps on fast CEX feed; could cross vulture's bait sells if oracle lags

Fires on new takeable edge ≥1% via scan-edges — directly aligned with vulture's pick-off mission

check-my-quotes erosion/undercut trigger prevents free pick-off of stale quotes

Pre-expiry trigger (~5 min before soonest expiry) protects against TTL-lapse waste

seenEdgeIds pre-seeded with confirmed honeypots (779/836/869) — zero-LLM guard

30s poll cadence + 2h hard fallback — appropriate for opportunistic agent

30s poll means up to 30s lag between LP posting a matching quote and vulture firing — suboptimal for competitive fill race

No explicit LP-quote-arrival event trigger; relies on scan-edges polling rather than reactive signal

[object Object] logging in wake descriptions

w59, w61, w62, w63, w64 all show '[object Object]' in the wake log summary line — an object is being string-interpolated without .toString() or JSON.stringify(). Degrades historical analysis readability.

Find the wake-log string concatenation where the state/result object is interpolated and replace with JSON.stringify(obj) or obj.summary / obj.action fields.

Realized PnL -$1.20 on 34 deals at 15.1% pool spend ($22.82/5h)

34 deals with $55.43 lifetime token cost and -$1.20 realized PnL means edge capture is not yet covering LLM costs. The +$0.28 from deals 98/99 is directionally correct but the rate needs to accelerate now LP is live.

Monitor PnL-per-deal over next 5 wakes with LP active; if bait sells remain unfilled >60 min into market-open epoch, lower bait floor from 1% to 0.75% to attract momentum/swing flow.

LP HUB LIVE, TWO BOOT DEAD

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Vulture-Andrew, Arb-Hunter-Tom, Rebalancer-Lior, Polymarket-Ljuba, 0xBd6a, 0x5F79, 0xb591

ACTIVE — 11 open quotes, last_wake=4min, 9 recent settled swaps; Rebalancer BTC

ACTIVE — 4 live bets, 14 settled lifetime; tight reliable pair; 84% of Mimic wak

THIN — 1 fill today (dealId 100, ETH put strike $1,631.46, $0.24 premium); book

DEAD — 8 consecutive null cycles, armed=false/pidAlive=false both agents, $0 lif

LP-Maker-Matheus 931-min crash (armWatcher promise-drop at w44, 06-09T17:19Z)

Momentum-Nikita intents #741/#745 (SSV, $51.25 USDC each) expired unfilled; Swing-Nikita w11 SSV intent (0x289, 23 USDC)

LP offline 931 min; all named intents expired in that window; Vulture deals 98/99 (sNVDA/sMSFT) settled within minutes of LP recovery at w63 13:47 UTC, confirming LP was the binding constraint; arb-hu

Rebalancer-Lior BTC DCA lot size = 7 USDC, LP-Maker minimum = 12 USDC

4th consecutive BTC DCA failure; LP is now live (11 quotes, last_wake=4min) but mathematically cannot fill 7-USDC lots;

Intents #777 (w21), #831 (w22), #887 (w23) all posted at 7 USDC; LP floor = 12 USDC; agent w23 rationale cites 'LP may come alive at this lower oracle' — LP is alive, lot size is the blocker; 0xBd6a a

Index-Maker boot failure (wake_script_source=null, 8 cycles, never started)

Index-Taker has never received an IndexBasket LONG intent; index-taker dead by dependency starvation — neither agent has

Both agents: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, $0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, 0 on-chain intents across all 8 observed cycles; byte-for-byte state identical cycle 7 → cycle 8

Bear-Yosher is Mimic-Ljuba's only counterparty (16/16 settled deals)

51 of 61 Mimic wakes (84%) find empty board; Mimic is structurally idle between Bear's posting cadence — adding a second

Mimic-Ljuba: 16 settled BinaryBets, all with Bear-Yosher; watcher fires on book-change which depends entirely on Bear; 0 other binary intent sources in fleet

Stacker-Massimo epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) fired; no post-epoch re-arm observed

Stacker is now armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, burn_5h=0 — stalled post-epoch with no autonomous reco

last_wake=62min, burn_5h=0, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; Step-1 flagged as post-epoch stall; watcher state confirms no active process or fallback scheduled

Index-Maker + Index-Taker: 8-cycle boot dead, zero platform action taken

Both agents identical null state for 8 consecutive cycles: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, $0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, 0 on-chain intents. No config delta or process change detected across any cycle. LP-Maker's full recovery has zero bearing — IndexBasket market has never functioned. This is the only market cluster with no path to self-recovery.

8 null cycles; $0 lifetime tokens both agents; 0 IndexBasket intents ever posted; state byte-identical cycle 7 → cycle 8

Developer inspection required: check agent boot config, wake_script_source assignment, and process supervisor registration for index-maker; fixing maker automatically unblocks index-taker (which has correct logic but zero supply)

armWatcher promise-drop: confirmed in two separate agents, systemic core risk

Two confirmed incidents this fleet: LP-Maker w44 (06-09T17:19Z) — fallbackMs=3600000 swallowed, caused 931-min offline; Bear-Yosher w29b/w30 (06-10T04:09:00) — simultaneous dual-fire on same intent-fill trigger, posted duplicate BinaryBets (self-repaired w31). Both traced to armWatcher not reliably returning/resolving its fallback promise under concurrent event conditions.

LP: armed=false, pidAlive=false at w44, 931 min offline; Bear: w29b+w30 simultaneous fires on same intent-ID, duplicate posts confirmed and repaired in w31

Audit armWatcher: add process-level watchdog that independently resurrectors agents if fallback timer elapses without a wake; deduplicate trigger events by intent-ID before firing; priority-1 given LP is the fleet hub

Rebalancer-Lior: 4 consecutive DCA failures caused by lot-size mismatch, not oracle

BTC DCA intents #777, #831, #887 (and w20 predecessor) all posted at 7 USDC; LP-Maker minimum lot is 12 USDC. LP is now live with 11 open quotes but still cannot fill these. Agent's w23 self-diagnosis ('LP may come alive at this oracle') is wrong — this is a config problem, not a market-timing problem. Expect 5th failure if lot size unchanged.

4 consecutive 7-USDC BTC intents; LP floor=12 USDC; LP currently active (last_wake=4min); 0xBd6a alternative absent from current book; Rebalancer has 1 non-BTC swap settled with LP this cycle (sNVDA at higher lot), proving LP fills other pa

Update Rebalancer-Lior CLAUDE.md: raise BTC DCA lot size from 7 USDC to ≥12 USDC; or expand DCA universe to sNVDA/sAAPL where LP fills smaller lots (per the successful sNVDA intent visible in current open book at 4 USDC)

Stacker-Massimo: post-epoch stall, armed=false, no fallback, burn_5h=0

Epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) fired as expected; last_wake=62min ago; now armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, burn_5h=0. No recovery path visible without intervention. Agent either completed epoch action and failed to re-arm for next cycle, or died mid-epoch execution.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, burn_5h=0, last_wake=62min; Step-1 flagged post-epoch stall; prior summary showed countdown 189→129 min (consistent 60-min advance) but process did not survive epoch fire

Check Stacker-Massimo last wake log for epoch-complete handler outcome; if mid-epoch stall, manual restart; add post-epoch re-arm clause to wake script so agent reschedules itself for the next market session after firing

LP-Maker fully recovered: 11 open quotes, fleet unblocked

LP posted 11 quotes across sMSFT, sAAPL, SSV, sNVDA, BTC, ETH/USDC pairs; Vulture deals 98/99 (sNVDA/sMSFT rebalance buys) settled at w63 13:47 UTC within minutes of recovery; arb-hunter fill rate jumped from 1.8% to ~9% post-recovery; 9 recent settled swaps confirmed. LP nextFallbackMin=9 — watch for next wake.

11 open quotes in live book; last_wake=4min; armed=true, nextFallbackMin=9; Vulture w63 deals 98/99 settled instantly post-LP-return; LP ↔ Rebalancer 1 swap settled this cycle

Monitor LP nextFallbackMin: if armed=false persists beyond ~15 min post-expected wake, escalate immediately as second armWatcher failure — LP is the single hub all swap takers depend on

Bear↔Mimic binary pair: 14 settled, invariant maintained, promise-drop self-repaired

Bear-Yosher: 14 settled BinaryBets, 4 currently live, disciplined exactly-one-resting-bet invariant held across w31–w35. The w29b/w30 armWatcher promise-drop caused simultaneous duplicate posts but Bear correctly detected and repaired in w31 — agent-side logic is sound. -$0.36 lifetime PnL within expected range.

14 settled ↔ Mimic-Ljuba; 4 live bets in recent deals; w31 self-repair of w29b/w30 duplicates confirmed

No agent action needed; core armWatcher fix will prevent future duplicate-fire recurrence

Fix index-maker boot failure (wake_script_source=null, 8 cycles): developer must inspect process supervisor registration and agent boot config; this is the only market cluster with zero self-recovery path and blocks index-taker entirely

Fix armWatcher promise-drop: add independent watchdog that resurrects agents if fallback timer elapses without a wake; deduplicate trigger events by intent-ID; this is priority-1 given LP-Maker is the fleet swap hub and has already crashed once from this bug

Update Rebalancer-Lior CLAUDE.md: raise BTC DCA lot size from 7 USDC to ≥12 USDC — LP is live but the lot-size floor makes a 5th consecutive failure inevitable without this change

Investigate Stacker-Massimo post-epoch stall (armed=false, burn_5h=0, 62min since last wake): check epoch-complete handler logs, restart if stalled, add post-epoch re-arm logic to wake script

Monitor LP-Maker nextFallbackMin=9 for next wake confirmation — if armed=false persists beyond ~15 min, escalate as second armWatcher crash requiring manual restart; all swap-dependent takers (momentum, swing, vulture, arb-hunter) regress immediately if LP goes down again

Better — LP-Maker recovered from the 931-min crash (now last_wake=4min, 11 live quotes, deals settled with Vulture/Swing/Rebalancer/Polymarket this cycle); Bear↔Mimic binary settled+live; persistent blockers: Rebalancer-Lior 7-USDC lot below LP's 12-USDC floor (5th failure expected), index-maker/tak

LP-Maker fully live: 81 deals, 11 open quotes, last_wake=4min — does LP recovery unblock the stalled takers (momentum-nikita, swing-nikita, rebalancer-lior)?

Rebalancer-Lior: 4+ consecutive BTC DCA failures at 7 USDC (LP floor=12 USDC); 2 open intents currently visible (BTC 7 USDC + sAAPL 7 USDC) will likely expire again this cycle

Stacker-Massimo: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, last_wake=62min, burn_5h=0 — post-epoch (1781098200, 13:30 UTC) stall or deliberate disarm after epoch fired?

index-maker/taker: 8th consecutive null cycle, zero wakes, $0 lifetime tokens — structural boot failure unresolved, no platform-level action taken yet

LP is back with 11 live quotes across sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA/BTC/ETH/SSV. Did arb-hunter find any CEX vs on-chain edge in LP's fresh round since recovery — any new fills since w131 (ETH swap +22bps), or still waiting on oracle lag?

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet just settled AND one is live now. Is the exactly-one-resting-bet invariant still intact (0 open intents in snapshot), and is the live bet aligned with the crypto-down/tech-up thesis?

8th null cycle: armed=false, no wakes, $0 tokens, no file timestamp change. Has anything changed in config, process list, or on-chain state since cycle 7 — or is this a confirmed dead agent requiring a platform boot intervention?

8th null cycle, identical null state to index-maker. Has any new IndexBasket intent appeared on-chain (which would be the dependency trigger), or is this confirmed as an independent boot failure separate from index-maker?

Confirmed recovered from 931-min outage: 81 deals, 11 open quotes, active recent settlements. Is LP filling Rebalancer's 7-USDC BTC lots (prior: floor=12 USDC blocks them), and is quoting cadence now continuous or still episodic per the las

Bear just settled a BinaryBet and has a new live bet on-chain. Has Mimic's pidAlive=true watcher actually triggered on the new Bear intent — and is Mimic correctly positioned on the opposite side, or is it still on standby from the prior 0-

LP is back with quotes on all 6 universe assets (sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL/BTC/ETH/SSV). Has any asset cleared the 2pp momentum threshold since the market-open w16 wake 78 min ago, or is Momentum correctly resting on sub-threshold data with nextFal

Option-taker took ETH put dealId 100 (strike $1,631.46, 1% OTM) at w20. Just woke (last_wake=1min, nextFallbackMin=60). Has option-writer posted any new options since w20, and did this wake find and evaluate new supply?

15 deals, 0 open intents, last_wake=46min, nextFallbackMin=195. Has the writer posted a new option this cycle post-w31, and has the sMSFT rotation failure — 4 failed swaps (530/533/764/804) — been diagnosed and resolved, or is it still bloc

nextFallbackMin=1751 (~29h). Bear's new live BinaryBet is on-chain right now. Is Poly's delta-only watcher subscribed to Bear-Yosher's new intents, or will it miss the entire Bear betting cycle until the ~29h fallback fires?

5th BTC DCA attempt imminent: both open intents are 7 USDC (BTC + sAAPL), both below LP's 12-USDC floor. Has rebalancer's latest wake explicitly acknowledged the lot-size mismatch, or is it still misattributing failures to oracle price as i

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, last_wake=62min, burn_5h=0. Did epoch-1781098200 (13:30 UTC) fire an LLM step — if yes, why no new deal and why disarmed with 0 burn; if no, what blocked the epoch trigger from executing?

LP is back providing fills. Did any asset hit the ≥1.5% dislocation buy threshold since the no-signal w19 wake 78 min ago — specifically has SSV retreated below its trailing average, or has any other asset dislocated enough to trigger a sli

8 open bait sells (sAAPL 1%, sMSFT 1%, SSV 2.21%) remain unfilled with LP back as neutral maker (won't take directional bait). Which directional agents (momentum-nikita, swing-nikita, rebalancer-lior) are actually positioned and awake enoug

rebalancer-lior: Increase BTC lot size to ≥12 USDC — 4+ consecutive expirations (777/831/887 + current) confirm 7 USDC is structurally unfillable by LP-Maker, the only active swap maker; the fix is on

index-maker + index-taker: 8-cycle null state — agent processes never start, suggesting a missing init config or broken entry point; requires platform-level boot investigation, not a mission/CLAUDE.md

stacker-massimo: Verify post-epoch state — armed=false with last_wake=62min and burn_5h=0 is ambiguous; confirm whether epoch trigger fired, and re-arm if budget is undeployed

polymarket-ljuba: nextFallbackMin=1751 (~29h) will miss Bear's entire current bet cycle; either trigger a manual wake now or update watcher to subscribe to Bear-Yosher intent events