Arb-Hunter-Tom

No latency edge available. All crypto swaps priced taker-unfavorably; binary bet drought continues (stock-only).

new crypto intent >2154, binary <=30min in money, or 30min fallback

Summary: Agent shows evidence of mid-cycle recovery: wakes w285–w292 all executed with coherent reasoning, and two new deals landed — Deal 184 (w288, 10:09Z, SSV +139bps) and Deal 185 (w289, 10:30Z, SSV +28bps) — directly answering last run's open question. However wakes_failing=true remains set with the same 'launch-wake exited 1' error, and tokens_5h_usd=0 despite

Two deals settled during a recovery window (Deal 184: SSV +139bps, Deal 185: SSV +28bps), but wakes_failing=true and tokens_5h_usd=$0 indicate the 'launch-wake exited 1' error returned after w292 (11:30Z). Same error class as vulture-andrew — 2 agents sharing an identical 'exited 1' entrypoint failure is a platform signal, not a coincidence.

wakes_failing=true; watcher.wakeError='launch-wake exited 1'; tokens_5h_usd=0 despite w288–w292 apparent activity; same error text as vulture-andrew (2/2 broken agents share identical symptom — platform regression candidate). Recovery window w285–w292 produced Deals 184 and 185 before the break recu

Sound during the recovery window (w285–w292): clean surface scan, correct CEX-vs-oracle gap math (+139bps and +28bps confirmed edges taken), high-water mark advancing correctly, appropriate waits when no edge. Solving the right problem when it runs. The defect is in the entrypoint, not the reasoning.

new crypto swap intent above HIGH_WATER 2138

crypto binary bet entering ≤30min window with CEX taker-side in-money ≥0.5%

22 of 34 settled deals; primary swap liquidity source; 3 open intents on book now

2 settled deals as swap counterparty; can post baited intents arb-hunter could take

stuck — wakes_failing, same 'exited 1' e

binary/option writer, not swap maker; arb-hunter's binary surface requires CEX coverage arb, not option instruments

During the re-broken period (after w292, 11:30Z): any SSV swap or crypto binary bet posted by LP-Maker-Matheus with CEX gap ≥10bps would be missed. LP-Maker-Matheus currently has 3 open intents — unmeasurable whether any carry edge without live CEX feed, but arb-hunter is the agent best-positioned to take them and cannot fire.

HIGH_WATER tracks last-seen intent ID — avoids re-scanning stale book, exactly right for a latency-arb agent that needs fresh signals

Binary bet trigger runs CEX price check BEFORE firing — prevents waking the agent on a bet that's already out of the money; zero-LLM gate

wokenBets dedup file prevents re-firing on the same expiring bet across multiple watcher ticks

30-min fallback is appropriate for a taker whose primary signal is book-driven; not sub-minute polling

Explicitly filters STOCK symbols from crypto triggers — correct surface separation matching the mission's CEX-feed dependency

No CEX-fetch error surfacing to watcher — the catch block logs and continues silently, so a broken cex-price.js tool would suppress binary triggers without any

wokenBets file is unbounded — old bet IDs accumulate forever; minor but grows over time

Propagate CEX fetch failures to a watcher-visible metric or trigger the fallback immediately — a silent catch means binary-bet triggers go dark if cex-price.js breaks, with no signal to the observer.

'launch-wake exited 1' intermittent entrypoint failure

arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew both show identical 'launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)' in watcher.wakeError. Two agents, same error class, same entrypoint — this is a platform-level defect (agent-entrypoint script, launch-wake binary, or shared runtime dependency). arb-hunter recovered trans

Inspect launch-wake exit code and stderr for both agents simultaneously — the shared symptom points to a common binary, PATH, or SDK dependency. Reproduce: run `launch-wake` directly in the container and capture full stderr. Check if a recent SDK/runtime update changed the entrypoint contract.

CEX fetch errors silently suppress binary-bet wake triggers

watcher catch block logs e.message but does not propagate; if cex-price.js fails, the binary surface goes blind with no observable watcher signal.

In the nearCryptoBets catch block, either re-throw to let the fallback handle it, or write a flag to a watcher-visible file so the observer can detect CEX-fetch outages.

Bear-Yosher

Summary: Prior run flagged armed=false after w58 (03:04 UTC June 15) — that reading was likely a timing artifact or brief re-arm lag. The HALT-mode wake script w58 wrote contains a BTC ±1.5% deviation trigger from $65,424.24; that trigger fired ~60 min ago (inferred w59, ~07:40 UTC June 15), causing a re-assessment wake that re-armed with a fresh 4h fallback (nextFal

Bear-yosher re-armed because BTC moved ≥1.5% from its $65,424 baseline, firing w59 ~60 min ago; w59 re-confirmed HALT and set a fresh 4h fallback. HALT is correctly held: 0 open intents, no resume action. Structural concern remains: -$18.34 PnL across 18 deals means the bear thesis has run against a sustained crypto uptrend; HALT is right, but the conviction itself warrants human review if BTC doesn't reverse before Deal 159 resolves at 17:49 UTC.

HALT correctly triggered by BTC+ETH sustained climb (w57 21:56 UTC June 14, baseline $65,424.24). BTC ±1.5% deviation fired w59 ~60 min ago; re-assessment maintained HALT. -$18.34 realized PnL on 18 deals reflects the bear thesis running against the prevailing uptrend; HALT is working but the direct

Sound — HALT mode is correctly applied per mission rules ('halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently'). 63/85 repeat wakes reflect deliberate inaction in HALT, not churn. No evidence of solving the wrong problem; the mission circuit-breaker is honoring its own spec.

BTC price deviation ≥1.5% from $65,424.24 (fired ~60 min ago at inferred w59)

Deal 159 betExpiry pre-fire at 2026-06-15T17:49 UTC (~9h out)

4h fallback (nextFallbackMin=183, ~3h remaining)

Primary swap counterparty for tech basket DCA buys (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT); 142 deals, oracle-fair quotes — ready when HALT lifts

Settled deal 159 directly with bear-yosher (custom live ↔ Mimic-Ljuba); mirrors BinaryBets and is the settlement counterparty for the only l

Writes BinaryBets including crypto-below-strike; bear-yosher would take BELOW-strike bets on HALT exit — currently has live sNVDA intent, no

none — HALT mode is intentional; not taking bets while BTC/ETH climb is the mission spec, not a miss. Deal 159 settlement at 17:49 UTC is the only pending action, and the watcher will pre-fire for it.

Deal 159 pre-fire trigger (17:49 UTC) is mission-critical and precisely timed — ensures the settle attempt doesn't miss expiry

BTC ±1.5% deviation monitors the core conviction signal without reacting to the order book (correct for HALT mode)

4h fallback is patient and appropriate; no sub-minute polling

Zero-LLM watch loop; belt.readPrice is the only I/O — lean and reliable

BTC ±1.5% fires on BOTH up AND down deviations — when BTC drops 1.5% below $65,424 (potential HALT-exit signal), the fireWake message is identical to a continue

tokens_5h_usd=0 despite last_wake_usd=1.44 and last_wake_min_ago=60 — minor metrics inconsistency; the w59 spend may not yet be reflected in the 5h window

Annotate direction in the fireWake message: fireWake(`BTC moved ${devPct.toFixed(2)}% ${btcPrice > BTC_BASELINE ? 'UP — HALT-confirm' : 'DOWN — assess HALT-exit'} from $${BTC_BASELINE} to $${btcPrice}`). Zero cost, removes ambiguity for the

BTC deviation trigger direction is ambiguous in fireWake message

fireWake reports magnitude only. When BTC falls 1.5% (potential HALT-exit per the bear conviction), the wake message looks identical to a 1.5% climb (HALT-confirm). The Claude instance running the wake must re-derive direction from btcPrice vs BTC_BASELINE in its reasoning rather than having it hand

Add UP/DOWN and assess-HALT-exit vs HALT-confirm annotation to fireWake call — one-liner change in wake_script_source

-$18.34 realized PnL: bear thesis structurally underwater

18 deals, -$18.34 realized. HALT at w57 is the correct response, but if BTC/ETH sustain above the baseline past Deal 159 resolution (17:49 UTC June 15), the conviction itself warrants human review — the circuit-breaker is working but it's protecting a losing directional call.

No code fix now — HALT is correct. Flag for human review: if BTC/ETH haven't reversed by Deal 159 resolution, consider widening the HALT persistence criterion or pausing the mission until macro alignment returns.

Index-Maker

Summary: 45th consecutive null cycle — state identical to prior 44 runs. watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, 0 settled deals. No wallet funded, no env set, no wake-script committed, no deployment signal of any kind. The IndexBasket LONG-side market has never had a maker — index-taker

45 consecutive null cycles. armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No wake-script, no wallet, no deployment. IndexBasket market does not exist on the book.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, metrics.wakes=0, metrics.tokens_lifetime_usd=0 — agent was never deployed

No wakes have ever occurred — no reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake-script committed — nothing fires

index-taker's sole mission is to take SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents this agent would post

unknown — also shows health=unknown, lik

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never woken

No wake-script exists (wake_script_source=null)

No deployment at all — no process, no watcher, no wallet

Deploy the agent: fund a wallet, commit a wake-script that prices BTC+AAPL+NVDA vs oracle, posts one LONG IndexBasket intent, and publishes the verified contract source to the indexer.

Agent never deployed — 45 null cycles

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 tokens across 45 observer cycles. The IndexBasket market has never had a maker; index-taker is permanently starved.

Fund wallet, write and commit current.ts (price basket, post LONG intent, publish contract source to indexer), deploy watcher. Until then index-taker has no counterparty and the entire IndexBasket market is frozen.

45 consecutive null cycles. armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No wake-script, no wallet, no deployment. IndexBasket market does not exist on the book.

Index-Taker

Summary: 45th consecutive null cycle — no change from prior. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No deployment signal of any kind this cycle. Index-maker (sole counterparty, only source of LONG IndexBasket intents) remains identically undeployed per fleet roster (health=unknown). The pair r

Index-taker has never run a single wake and carries $0 lifetime token spend — it is undeployed, not crashed. Its sole counterparty (index-maker) is identically undeployed. No deal is possible until at minimum index-maker is live and posting LONG IndexBasket intents.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens — agent has never been deployed, not a runtime crash

No wakes have ever run; no agent reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake script deployed — wake_script_source=null; no trigger of any kind exists

Sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of; architecturally the only valid counterparty

also undeployed — health=unknown, 0 wake

none — index-maker has never posted a LONG IndexBasket intent; no intents exist to take

wake_script_source=null — no script has ever been deployed; nothing to judge

Deploy a wake script that polls the indexer for live LONG IndexBasket intents with sufficient time remaining and fires when one is found — fall back on a timed interval so the agent re-checks even when the indexer is quiet

index-taker never deployed — 45 consecutive null cycles

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null across every observer run. Zero lifetime wakes, zero lifetime token spend. No process has ever started.

Deploy the agent with a wake script targeting the indexer for LONG IndexBasket intents; sequence index-maker deployment first

Index-maker (sole counterparty) also undeployed — dead cluster

Index-taker's mission is structurally contingent on index-maker posting intents. Index-maker is identically undeployed (health=unknown, 0 wakes). Even a deployed index-taker finds nothing to audit or cross.

Deploy index-maker first so it can post LONG IndexBasket intents; index-taker's deployment is only meaningful after index-maker is live

Index-taker has never run a single wake and carries $0 lifetime token spend — it is undeployed, not crashed. Its sole counterparty (index-maker) is identically undeployed. No deal is possible until at minimum index-maker is live and posting LONG IndexBasket intents.

LP-Maker-Matheus

SSV intents expiring; oracle stable so SSV ask δ returned to +50bps from emergency +75bps. Concurrent wake handled ETH/B

Summary: sNVDA ask dark through w187b — now 15+ consecutive wakes (up from 13+ at last summary), no sNVDA supply from any agent fleet-wide. SSV inversion pattern addressed: LP absorbed −$0.034 adverse fill loss across w184b–w186c (3 picks), then widened SSV ask to +75bps (from +35bps that kept getting hit); current book SSV bid −50bps / ask +75bps — pattern structura

sNVDA ask dark for 15+ wakes with zero restock path after stacker-massimo rotated to sAAPL; SSV adverse-fill pattern absorbed (−$0.034 over 3 hits) and spread widened to +75bps. Top two takers broken fleet-wide reduces deal volume risk for LP but also suppresses fill rate. 142 lifetime deals, 9 open intents, $77.78 5h token burn at 49.1% of pool.

sNVDA ask dark: no sNVDA sellers on-book since stacker-massimo deal-180 (rotated to sAAPL). Arb-hunter-tom (most frequent taker, ~18 of 41 recent deals) and vulture-andrew (~3 deals) both broken — removes ~50% of historic deal counterparty volume. Option-writer-matheus, momentum-nikita, rebalancer-l

Sound on the right problems: SSV spread calibration after adverse fills (35bps → 120bps → 75bps across w186b/c/187b) shows quantitative feedback loop; prefire cluster management is disciplined. One red flag: w185 logged '[object Object]' as the full reasoning — wake executed correctly (8 TXs) but reasoning text was not serialized, so this wake is opaque. State.json SSV overwrite (w187) and phantom

Oracle price crosses any live quote boundary (ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sMSFT bands; sNVDA bid-floor only)

New fillable swap intent from non-own, non-noisy poster

Prefire timer: 04:25 UTC (7 min before SSV bid #2130 expires 04:32)

MISSING: sNVDA inventory restock trigger — if sNVDA balance rises above a threshold, no path exists to automatically reactivate the ask; ask stays dark indefini

historically the LP's #1 taker (~18 of 41 visible deals)

6 recent deals, active rebalancing swaps

was sNVDA restocking source; now on sAAPL — could return to sNVDA if price moves

None verifiable — watcher monitors new swap intents; no evidence of missed fillable intent in wake logs since last summary. sNVDA ask dark means LP cannot serve any sNVDA sell demand that appears, which is the structural gap.

Per-instrument price guards match exact current book boundaries — fires precisely when oracle escapes the spread, not on noise

Prefire 7 min before SSV cluster expiry: proactive, prevents gap in SSV coverage

NVDA_LO-only guard correctly omits NVDA_HI since there is no sNVDA ask to protect

Noisy address (0x64Aa) filtered from new-intent scan — avoids thrash from high-frequency external poster

90-min fallback is appropriate for a cluster-managed LP; zero-LLM loop

No sNVDA inventory restock trigger: if LP receives sNVDA (e.g., a bid fills), nothing fires to post the ask — sNVDA ask stays dark until an unrelated oracle gua

Concurrent wake state collision unresolved: w187/w187b showed state.json SSV overwrite when two wakes ran close together; no write-lock or compare-and-swap guar

Add an sNVDA wallet-balance check in the watch loop: if sNVDA balance > MIN_ASK_SIZE (e.g. 0.03) AND sNVDA ask is currently dark, fire wake 'sNVDA inventory restocked — post ask'. This is the single gap that keeps the ask permanently dark w

sNVDA ask permanently dark — no restock trigger

sNVDA ask has been dark for 15+ consecutive wakes. Stacker-massimo was the only restocking path and has rotated to sAAPL. No wake trigger fires when LP's sNVDA balance rises above ask-posting threshold, so the ask cannot self-recover.

Add sNVDA balance poll to watch loop: fire wake when wallet sNVDA > 0.03 and ask is dark. Also coordinate with stacker-massimo mission: can it post sNVDA ask-side intents for LP to take?

Concurrent wake state.json collision — SSV inventory overwrite

w187 found state.json showing 0.662835 SSV (5× actual 0.163); w186c concurrent wake had written stale value. Led directly to phantom 1-SSV ask #2131, which was caught and canceled in w187b but would have reverted on-chain if taken.

Implement atomic state.json write with read-verify-CAS pattern, or serialize concurrent wake state writes with a file lock. The self-correction worked this time but the hazard recurs on every SSV cluster expiry where multiple sub-wakes fire.

'[object Object]' reasoning serialization in wake log (w185)

w185 logged '[object Object]' as the full reasoning string — wake executed 8 TXs correctly, but the reasoning is opaque. Likely the LLM returned a structured object that was not stringified before logging.

In wake-watch.js or the wake logger, JSON.stringify any reasoning value before writing to log. Prevents silent loss of reasoning trace on object-type returns.

Top 2 LP takers (arb-hunter-tom, vulture-andrew) both broken — deal flow at risk

Arb-hunter-tom (~18 of 41 recent LP deals) and vulture-andrew (~3) are both stuck/wakes_failing. LP's reliable counterparty count drops to 3 (option-writer, momentum-nikita, rebalancer-lior). If LP posts aggressively, it may accumulate inventory without offsetting fills.

Fleet-level: restore arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew (same exit-1/12 infra bug per Step-1 focus). LP itself has no action — it correctly quotes; the gap is taker-side.

Mimic-Ljuba

Summary: Fallback has NOT fired yet — nextFallbackMin=569 puts it at ~13:49Z today (June 15, Monday), just past US equity open. No new BinaryBets triggered an early wake in the 329 min since w109 (06-14T22:31Z); watchdog silence is correct, not alarming. Capital $85.58 USDC fully intact, zero exposure, zero open intents. Edge discipline (≥3pp floor) cleanly rejected

Watcher alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true), fallback fires in ~569 min (~13:49Z June 15 — Monday US equity open). No BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge appeared since w109; capital $85.58 USDC preserved intact. #1916 edge re-assessment pending fresh oracle at market open — sub-floor at w109 but 4 days of price movement could shift it materially.

w102–w109 show no BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge on the board; 24 swaps visible are off-mission; sole binary candidates showed −65pp, −38pp, −15pp, +2pp taker edges — all below floor. Thin binary book overnight, not an agent or toolchain issue.

Sound and on-mission. w102–w109 edge-floor rejections are quantitative and consistent (−65pp to +2pp all below 3pp floor, correctly skipped). One deliberate-move discipline applied cleanly. No churn — agent correctly identified zero actionable candidates rather than re-posting the same losing argument.

new BinaryBet intent ID appears on open intents (60s poll)

15h hardcoded fallback → ~13:49Z June 15 (Monday US equity open, #1916 re-assess)

Posts BinaryBets (BTC/ETH below, tech above) — directly in mimic's taker scope; settled 'custom live ↔ Bear-Yosher' in history

re-armed this run (armed=true, pidAlive=

Posts small-shade BinaryBets per its mission; settled 'custom live ↔ Polymarket-Ljuba' in history

health=ok, 4 lifetime deals — active but

Posts 'baited' near-sure-win binaries — mimic could take the other side if edge favors it

health=stuck, wakes_failing — BROKEN, no

None in mission scope — no BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge appeared on the board between w109 and now; the 24 swaps visible in recent wakes are off-mission by design.

60s poll for new BinaryBet intent IDs — fires immediately when a counterparty (bear-yosher, polymarket-ljuba) posts

15h hardcoded fallback lands at ~13:30–13:49Z Monday — correctly targets US equity open for sNVDA #1916 re-assessment

baseline 'seen' set on first poll prevents spurious fire on existing book

zero-LLM watcher, has fallback, correctly ignores swaps and options (off-mission)

Existing BinaryBets becoming deeply ITM as oracle moves are invisible — only new intent IDs trigger an early wake; a 2-day-old BinaryBet with a now-obvious outc

If the watcher process restarts (pidAlive resets), `seen` is re-initialized and the baseline trick means the first re-poll won't fire on anything already on the

Add a near-expiry / high-edge re-poll: if any already-seen BinaryBet has <2h to settlement, fire a wake — that's when oracle resolution produces the highest taker edge and is currently only caught by the scheduled fallback.

Existing ITM BinaryBets invisible between fallbacks

Watcher only fires on new intent IDs; a BinaryBet posted before the watcher started (or before the last wake) that has since moved deeply ITM will not trigger an early wake — mimic waits for the next fallback regardless of edge.

In the poll loop, also check known BinaryBets approaching settlement (<2h remaining) and fire if oracle implies ≥3pp ITM edge.

Momentum-Nikita

Edge threshold (2pp) filters the noise correctly. Field is compressed: fastest ETH-BTC gap is 1.06pp on 6h. Current posi

crypto gap ≥2pp (BTC/ETH/SSV) | US mkt open 13:30 UTC Jun 15 | 8h fallback

Summary: Clock bomb remains defused (w44 ISO-string fix confirmed). Nine wakes since last summary, all disciplined holds — field stayed compressed sub-2pp (fast gap peaked 1.73pp at w39, never cleared dual-confirm). Portfolio drifted to ATH $104.15. No new deals since last summary: LP-Maker-Matheus remains primary liquid counterparty; Vulture-Andrew (one prior deal p

Healthy and armed (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=197, wakes_failing=false). Eight holds since w37 are correct: fastest gap never cleared 2pp (peak 1.73pp at w39, 1.06pp at w44). US equity open at 13:30Z today fires the watcher explicitly — the watcher is ready to re-expand to full 6-name universe. Vulture-Andrew (1 prior deal) is now broken, reducing reliable counterparties to 1.

All 9 settled deals via LP-Maker-Matheus (2 recent) and Vulture-Andrew (1 recent, now broken). Sub-2pp field (1.06pp fast, 1.47pp slow at w44) correctly suppresses action — no counterparty mismatch, no toolchain block, pure market compression.

Sound and on-mission. The dual-confirm rule (both fast AND slow ≥2pp) is consistently applied across w37–w44 with cited gap numbers. No churn — each hold references the actual gap value. The crypto-only exclusion of frozen equity prices during closed market is correct reasoning. No sign of solving the wrong problem.

Crypto momentum gap ≥2pp between any of BTC/ETH/SSV (from dynamic baseline, ~90s poll)

US market open 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z — expands universe to BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT

8h fallback (~07:17 UTC Jun 15, nextFallbackMin=197)

Hub with 142 deals; handles delivered swaps; primary deal partner (2 of 3 recent settled deals)

1 prior settled deal; taker-side overlap possible on momentum swaps

Periodic swap poster; could cross with momentum rotation, but different cadence

None — field compressed sub-2pp across all 8 holds (w37–w44). Dual-confirm threshold not cleared. No verifiable missed take.

Fires on the actual decision variable (relative leader-vs-next gap in pp), not per-asset absolute moves — correctly avoids the 3%-threshold trap for compressed

US market open trigger at 13:30Z wired correctly as ISO-string Date.getTime() — the previously-flagged clock bomb is confirmed defused

Dynamic baseline captured on first poll, never hardcoded literals

After US market open fires and universe expands, the CURRENT watcher has no gap-trigger for the equity names (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) — the market-open trigger calls

After the 13:30Z market-open wake, ensure the next deployed watcher polls sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT gap alongside crypto — not just crypto. Otherwise equity momentum that fires at open is a one-shot wake rather than a continuous monitor.

Post-market-open watcher may drop equity gap monitoring

Current watcher fires fireWake() on now >= MARKET_OPEN_MS and exits the loop. The agent wakes and deploys a new watcher — but if that new watcher is crypto-only again (as w40 was, when it 'deployed new crypto-only watcher'), stocks are excluded from the gap trigger even though the mission includes e

In CLAUDE.md or the agent prompt, explicitly require that post-13:30Z watchers include sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT in the gap calculation, not just BTC/ETH/SSV.

Vulture-Andrew broken reduces counterparty pool to 1

Momentum-nikita has 1 reliable swap counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus). If LP-Maker-Matheus is unavailable or mispriced on a given rotation, no execution path exists. Vulture-Andrew accounted for 1 of 3 recent settled deals.

Restore Vulture-Andrew (fleet-level); or recruit rebalancer-lior / swing-nikita as alternate swap takers for momentum rotations.

Option-Taker-Matheus

new audited Option intent (ETH/BTC) appears OR 6h fallback

Summary: Seed-on-first-poll bug (lines 22-24) confirmed still live and unfixed across multiple cycles. First poll seeds seenIntentIds from current book and returns, making all pre-existing ETH/BTC options invisible to the trigger; agent has relied entirely on the 6h fallback since at least w35 (406 min ago). Option-Writer-Matheus's live sNVDA option (37 min left) is

Agent is ALIVE (armed=true, pidAlive=true, fallback in 37 min, wakes_failing=false) but the seed-on-first-poll bug (current.ts lines 22-24) means it relies entirely on the 6h fallback for option discovery — any ETH/BTC option entering and expiring in that 6h window is permanently missed. The sNVDA option (10 USDC → 0.04851 sNVDA, 37 min left) is out of mission scope; the watcher correctly ignores it. $26.81 P&L on 5 deals confirms the judgment is correct — the cadence is the failure.

current.ts lines 22-24: `if (!seenIntentIds) { seenIntentIds = new Set(auditedOptions.map((i: any) => i.intentId)); return; }` — confirmed across cycles since w35 (406 min ago); 6h fallback is the only working trigger; options with 1–4h lifetimes (w34: 1.47h, w35: 87 min) cannot be caught via the bo

Sound and strictly on-mission: w30/w31/w34/w35 correctly rejected options (w31: premium 40x theoretical fair, 5-sigma breakeven; w34: premium 5% vs 1–2% bar, 1.47h below 4h threshold; w35: 3% premium, 87 min expiry). w32 correctly passed #1641 on genuine cheapness. Selectivity is excellent. The problem is coverage architecture — the watcher never delivers most options to the evaluation loop.

new audited ETH/BTC Option intent appears on book — BROKEN by seed bug: any option pre-existing at watcher start is permanently invisible to this path

6h fallback — only reliable trigger; fires in 37 min; too coarse for 1–4h options

sole writer of audited Option intents; 26 deals, health=ok; 70/30 stock/crypto split means ~30% of output is ETH/BTC (in-scope); sNVDA optio

Any ETH/BTC audited option posted while the watcher was in seeded state that expired before the 6h fallback fired — structurally unmeasurable without full book history. The sNVDA option (10 USDC → 0.04851 sNVDA, 37 min left) is explicitly OUT OF SCOPE per mission (ETH/BTC only) and the watcher's ETH_BTC_ASSETS filter; not a miss. No in-scope ETH/BTC options visible in current snapshot to enumerate

60s poll cadence inside watchLoop is correct for latency-sensitive option discovery

AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH filter ensures only verified contracts trigger a wake — safe

ETH_BTC_ASSETS filter correctly scopes to mission (ETH/BTC only); sNVDA exclusion is intentional

Seed-on-first-poll (lines 22-24): initializes seenIntentIds from current book and returns — any option already on book at watcher start is permanently invisible

6h fallback too coarse: ETH/BTC options with 1–4h lifetimes (w34: 1.47h, w35: 87 min) enter and expire between fallback fires with zero trigger probability

No shorter safety fallback (e.g. 90 min) to close the coverage gap for short-dated options

Fix lines 22-24: replace `seenIntentIds = new Set(auditedOptions.map((i: any) => i.intentId)); return;` with `seenIntentIds = new Set();` — initialize to empty so the first poll fires immediately on any options already on the book. Separate

Seed-on-first-poll bug (current.ts lines 22-24)

On watcher start, first poll seeds seenIntentIds with ALL current book options and returns without firing. Any ETH/BTC audited option on book at that moment is permanently invisible to the trigger and can only be caught by the 6h fallback — which is too slow for 1–4h options. Confirmed live across 5

In current.ts lines 22-24: change `seenIntentIds = new Set(auditedOptions.map((i: any) => i.intentId))` to `seenIntentIds = new Set()` and remove the early `return`. This makes the first poll treat all current options as new, firing immediately. Worst cost: one extra wake per watcher restart.

6h fallback too coarse for option lifetimes

Options from option-writer-matheus have 1–4h lifetimes (w34: 1.47h expiry, w35: 87 min expiry). A 6h fallback creates structural coverage gaps where options enter, age, and expire with zero probability of discovery via the trigger path — agent only catches them at fallback fire.

Reduce FALLBACK_MS from `6 * 3600_000` to `90 * 60_000` (90 min) in current.ts. This bounds the worst-case miss window to 90 min, covering options with lifetimes down to ~2h (with two fallback chances).

Option-Writer-Matheus

Diagnostic complete — no repricing churn. Paused ENGINE 1 until conditions change (portfolio sNVDA rebalance OR option d

sNVDA buy intent 0x0856 resolved (filled or expired) or 1h fallback

Summary: BTC put 0x0833 expired unfilled in w23 (collateral freed, $35.34 buffer recovered) — diagnostic complete: zero option demand is market-wide, not ETH-specific. Agent correctly paused ENGINE 1 (option writing) and pivoted to ENGINE 2 only: sNVDA buy 0x0856 (10 USDC, oracle+0.5%, the sole live intent, replacing expired 2046). PnL marginally improved to -10.51 f

Six option probes (5 ETH calls 1.5–3%, 1 BTC put 2%) — all zero-fill. Agent correctly suspended option writing at w23 and is running ENGINE 2 only. The real open question is why Option-Taker-Matheus (healthy, 5 deals) has never crossed with this writer despite both being active — structural pricing mismatch (writer posts OTM, taker wants ITM) is the most likely cause.

ETH calls at 3%→2%→1.5% (w14–w17) all zero-fill; BTC put at 2% (w22–w23) zero-fill; Option-Taker-Matheus (5 deals, ok health) never matched with this writer across any of the 6 probes; all 26 settled deals are swaps, zero options

Sound and self-correcting — ran a systematic cross-asset diagnostic (ETH calls → BTC put), correctly concluded market-wide demand is zero, suspended the failing engine rather than churning. One gap: 'paused until conditions change' has no defined resume trigger in the watcher, leaving ENGINE 1 in an open-ended hold.

ownIntentResolved on 0x0856 (sNVDA buy fill or expiry)

MISSING: no trigger for option demand resumption — no signal to restart ENGINE 1 if a taker appears on the book

Primary swap counterparty, 4 of last 9 settled deals

Posts sNVDA bids and takes sNVDA; could cross with buy 0x0856 if it sells at oracle+0.5%

Natural counterparty for options but has never filled this writer's 6 posted options — mission says ITM/near-decided, writer only posts OTM

2 of last 9 settled deals (swaps), would otherwise be a taker for mispriced options

Option-Taker-Matheus (healthy, active) has taken 0 of this writer's 6 options — likely because the taker's audit criteria target in-the-money or near-decided options while the writer only posts 1% OTM with 1.5h term. This is a fleet-level instrument mismatch, not a missed opportunity attributable to the writer. The writer cannot measure whether a non-watcher-based taker could have taken its intent

Fires immediately on 0x0856 resolution (fill or expiry) — no wasted polling delay between resolution and next decision

1h fallback is appropriate given ENGINE 1 paused and no time-sensitive option positions open

Zero-LLM, correct ownIntentResolved pattern, single focused intent watch

No resume path for ENGINE 1 — indefinitely parked with no book-watching trigger to restart option writing if demand appears

If 0x0856 fills quickly and agent posts a new intent, a fresh watcher is implied but unspecified — resume logic lives only in the fallback

Add a secondary trigger: watch for Option-Taker-Matheus activity on the book (an open intent seeking options) and fire early — this bridges the writer/taker disconnect that has persisted across all 6 probes without a single cross.

Option-Writer and Option-Taker never cross despite both healthy

Writer posted 6 options (ETH calls 1.5–3%, BTC put 2%), all OTM by ~1%. Option-Taker's mission specifies 'cheap or near-decided in-the-money' — structural mismatch means the taker's audit would reject every option this writer posts. Neither agent's settled deal list includes the other.

Fleet-level alignment: either writer should include an ITM or near-expiry tranche (taker's target), or taker's criteria should be extended to include near-expiry OTM options approaching parity. One config change in one CLAUDE.md would unlock a native counterparty pair.

ENGINE 1 pause has no resume trigger in watcher

W23 rationale states 'paused ENGINE 1 until conditions change (portfolio sNVDA rebalance OR option demand)' but neither condition maps to a watcher event. Agent will only reexamine at the 1h fallback, meaning option demand could appear and be missed mid-cycle.

Add explicit resume criteria to CLAUDE.md (e.g., after 2 consecutive fills of sNVDA buy, test one ITM option at sub-1% premium; or if book shows a taker posting an option-seek intent, fire immediately).

Polymarket-Ljuba

No takeable opps. Maker fallback: sNVDA>$195 strongest new candidate outside existing sMSFT position. sNVDA at $205.10 (

intent fills/expires or new takeable binary/option (24h fallback)

Summary: 350 min post-w57 (up 60 min from prior 290 min) — still no w58, watcher armed with 1092-min fallback. Both maker binaries (#1827 sMSFT<$420, #1916 sNVDA>$195 Jun19) remain open and unfilled. Step-1 focus confirmed: wake script has zero price-drift or oracle-threshold trigger, so if sNVDA has moved toward $195 since w57 the agent is exposed and asleep — this

Agent is alive and correctly resting (armed=true, pidAlive=true, wakes_failing=false). Core risk: wake script cannot self-trigger on sNVDA oracle drift — agent posted sNVDA>$195 at $205.10/77.93% implied (w57, 350 min ago) and won't recheck until a 24h fallback (~18h remaining) or another binary/option appears on book. With both natural binary takers (arb-hunter-tom, vulture-andrew) broken, maker binaries may also be structurally unfillable regardless of price.

Only 4 lifetime settled deals; primary binary takers arb-hunter-tom (34 deals, wakes_failing) and vulture-andrew (46 deals, wakes_failing) both broken; lp-maker-matheus handles swaps not binary resolution; 2 open maker intents #1827/#1916 sit unfilled 350+ min

Sound and on-mission within each wake: horizon-exit discipline (w50-w56 sAAPL saga handled correctly), min-edge gating at 3%, Polymarket-based implied pricing. Problem is structural: reasoning is correct for the wakes that fire, but the agent is solving the right problem with a cadence that creates an 18h+ blind spot to oracle moves on its own open positions — sound reasoning, wrong watcher cadenc

Own intent #1827 or #1916 resolves (filled or expired)

New BinaryBet or Option intent appears on book

MISSING: sNVDA/sMSFT oracle price crossing a proximity threshold to the strike (e.g. sNVDA within $3 of $195)

MISSING: Polymarket distribution re-poll to detect probability shift on open positions

Settled 2 deals (swaps); active hub with 3 open intents — good for exit swaps but not binary resolution

Primary mission is taking near-decided binaries — exactly what #1827/#1916 would be if oracle drifts

Takes clearly mispriced/near-decided binaries; 46 deals; 6 live intents on book

Settled 1 custom live deal; mirrors directional bets — could take a binary but not its primary mode

Posts BinaryBets; re-armed this cycle — could overlap on sNVDA/sMSFT direction

unmeasurable: watcher blind to oracle price — agent cannot self-detect if sNVDA drifted toward $195 creating a riskier or more favorable binary position since w57. No Polymarket distribution data between wakes to identify new mispriced taker opportunities.

Fires on own-intent resolution — correctly handles fill/expiry events for #1827/#1916

Fires on new BinaryBet/Option appearing — enables reactive taker mode

Zero-LLM, has 24h fallback, properly armed

Baseline set on first poll (no premature fire)

No oracle price-proximity trigger: if sNVDA falls from $205 to $196 the agent's maker position is near-strike and exposed — agent sleeps through it

No Polymarket distribution re-poll: implied probability on open positions can shift significantly between wakes with no signal to agent

24h fallback is too long for a binary maker with open positions near a strike — a 2-4h cadence is more appropriate

Add an sNVDA price-proximity trigger: poll the oracle each loop iteration and fireWake if sNVDA moves within $5 of $195 (the strike for #1916) — this transforms the agent from purely event-reactive to position-aware, which is the core gap f

No oracle proximity trigger for open binary positions

wake script watches for intent events and new book entries but never polls sNVDA/sMSFT oracle vs strike. Agent posted sNVDA>$195 at $205.10 (w57, 350 min ago); if oracle has since drifted toward $195, agent is exposed and has no signal. 1092-min fallback is too long for a binary maker.

Add oracle price check inside runWatchLoop: if sNVDA < $200 (within $5 of $195 strike) fireWake('sNVDA drifted within $5 of strike'); reduce fallback to 2-4h for open binary positions

No Polymarket distribution re-poll between wakes

Mission requires Polymarket implied probability to price/value bets; but between wakes the agent has no signal if Polymarket shifts significantly. A new taker opportunity could open and close before the next wake.

Add a periodic Polymarket distribution fetch inside the watch loop (every N iterations) and fireWake if any open-intent's Polymarket-implied edge exceeds MIN_EDGE threshold

Both primary binary takers broken — maker binaries structurally unfillable

arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew (the two agents most likely to take near-decided binaries) are both wakes_failing/health=stuck. Polymarket-ljuba's #1827 and #1916 may sit unfilled until they recover regardless of price, leaving $14 USDC locked in open intents.

Restore arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew (shared launch-wake exit-1 issue per Step-1 focus); until then, polymarket-ljuba has only 1 reliable counterparty (lp-maker-matheus) and only for swap exits, not binary resolution

Rebalancer-Lior

Sunday 21:44 UTC. Stocks closed. No USDC. Gaps too small for crypto-only rebalance. Watcher date was wrong — would have

Monday 2026-06-15T13:30Z stock open -- trim sMSFT, DCA BTC

Summary: PRIOR OBSERVER ERROR RETRACTED: June 15 2026 IS Monday — the w48 date correction (06-16→06-15) was correct, not a bug. Watcher is properly targeting 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z (US stock market open) with 14:30Z fallback (nextFallbackMin=625 confirms ~14:20Z fallback active). Agent cleanly sequenced: BTC DCA completed at w44 (#1294 filled), sMSFT approved at w46, n

Prior summary's Sunday claim was wrong — June 15 2026 is Monday. Watcher correctly targets 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z; nextFallbackMin=625 confirms 14:30Z fallback live. BTC DCA (#1294) executed at w44; sMSFT approved at w46. Plan is clean: trim sMSFT +1.52pp → DCA BTC -1.65pp at open. No infra issues, no missed opportunities — this is a structurally correct wait.

US stock market closed overnight/weekend; BTC underweight addressed at w44 (#1294 filled, -7.05pp gap reduced to -1.65pp). Zero trades possible until 13:30Z Monday open — correct behavior, not a block or counterparty starvation.

Sound and solving the right problem. Agent correctly sequenced: identify BTC underweight → escalate premium through 4+ oracle failures → #1294 filled at w44/w45 → approve sMSFT (non-trade, w46) → recognize stock trim needs market hours → fix watcher date → wait. No churn, no re-deriving. The escalation ladder (oracle → +1.47% → +2.07% → +3% → +4%) was deliberate and resulted in a fill.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z (US stock market open — poll every 5 min)

Fallback: 2026-06-15T14:30:00Z (nextFallbackMin=625 confirms active)

Hub with 142 deals and health=ok — primary delivered-swap counterparty for sMSFT trim and BTC DCA

Armed, health=ok, 3 open intents on book

None — US stocks closed overnight; BTC DCA already executed at w44 (#1294); no remaining crypto gap large enough to act on without stock-sale proceeds. 0 open intents on book is correct for this waiting posture.

Fires at exactly 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z — correct trigger for a stock-trim-then-DCA plan that requires live oracle

5-min poll cadence is appropriate for a patient DCA agent (no sub-minute churn)

14:30Z fallback ensures action even if the open poll is missed; fallback is real (nextFallbackMin=625 confirms it)

Zero-LLM; label explicitly names the pending trade (trim sMSFT +1.52pp, DCA BTC -1.65pp)

FALLBACK_MS is computed as (14:30Z - Date.now()) at script launch time (06-14T21:44Z) — correct for this run, but if the script is ever relaunched mid-day witho

No change required — script is well-reasoned for mission. Optional low-priority: emit a startup log line printing the resolved MARKET_OPEN_MS and FALLBACK_MS timestamps so the watcher log shows the exact targets rather than requiring calcul

Stacker-Massimo

Nothing takeable, no drift trigger, bid still valid. Mission says skip.

Summary: Prior: w43–w51 no-action on sNVDA, bid #1833 stable, sNVDA structurally bid-only. w52 rotated to sAAPL (consecutive_misses=2), swept ask 2063, deal 180 settled (USDC 73.821→67.963, +0.02 sAAPL). Since then: w53 posted bid 2069; w54 bid 2069 passively filled AND swept ask 2075 (USDC→52.105, sAAPL→0.074175); w55 posted bid 2111; w56 no-op; w57 swept ask 2143 (

Agent is alive and executing cleanly: 3 sAAPL deals plus a passive bid-fill since rotation at w52, total 9 settled deals vs LP-Maker-Matheus (7/9). Bid 2111 (10 USDC → 0.034175 sAAPL, oracle+0.5%) is sitting correctly — no qualifying ask appeared in the 16 min since w57, so the watcher has not fired. The 45-min fallback (30 min remaining) will sweep any pre-existing LP ask it may have missed on initialization.

After taking ask 2143 at w57 (deal 186), no new sAAPL sell-side ≤oracle×1.01 and ≤12 USDC has appeared. Bid 2111 posted at w55 (03:10Z) still open with 336 min left. This is correct taker-first behavior: post own bid when nothing is sweepable, sit until taker arrives or oracle drifts.

Sound and on-mission. The rotation logic (consecutive_misses=2 → sAAPL) triggered correctly; the agent swept three sAAPL asks and had one passive fill across four wakes (w52–w57). No churn — each no-action wake has a concrete reason (ceiling exceeded, no new sell, bid valid). The taker-first discipline is holding.

bid 2111 fill or expiry (ownIntentResolved)

sAAPL oracle drift >0.5% from $291.15 base (~$1.46 threshold)

new sNVDA or sAAPL sell-side intent ≤12 USDC (newMatches filter)

7 of 9 settled deals; 142 lifetime deals, 3 open intents now, health ok — primary and active source of sAAPL asks

1 settled deal; posts sNVDA/sAAPL as part of 70/30 engine — occasional counterparty

DCA rebalancer may post sAAPL/sNVDA sells when overweight — 15 deals, active

None verifiable from data. The watcher's `seen` set is initialized on first-poll, so any pre-existing LP-Maker sAAPL ask present when the watcher started would be in `seen` and would NOT trigger a wake — agent catches it only at the 45-min fallback. One LP-Maker ask could have been sitting quietly for up to 45 min. Unmeasurable without book snapshot, but structural gap exists.

Fires immediately on bid 2111 resolution — no delay on fill or expiry

Oracle drift trigger ($1.46 threshold) ensures bid stays competitive if sAAPL moves

newMatches filter (posterGives sAAPL/sNVDA, posterWants USDC ≤12) correctly targets mission lot size

45-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient accumulator; sub-minute loops not needed

seen set initialized from first-poll snapshot — pre-existing asks on book at watcher start are silently skipped until fallback (up to 45-min delay on a resting

Hardcoded intent ID '2111' and oracle base $291.15 are correct for this watcher instance but become stale if w58 posts a new bid — mitigated because agent regen

On first-poll initialization, run a `readOpenIntents` scan and immediately check pre-existing sell intents against `isSellOpportunity` — if any qualify, `fireWake` rather than adding them to `seen`. This closes the up-to-45-min gap on resti

Watcher blind to pre-existing qualifying asks at arm time

The `seen` set is seeded with all current intents on first-poll, so a LP-Maker sAAPL ask that was on the book before watcher armed is never re-evaluated until the 45-min fallback. With LP-Maker as the sole reliable counterparty, this could delay sweeps by up to 45 min.

In the first-poll branch (where `seen` is null), run `isSellOpportunity` against current intents before populating `seen`; if any match, `fireWake('pre-existing sell intent {id}')` instead of returning.

Swing-Nikita

All actionable signals require selling assets I do not hold. No buy-dip signals on any asset. Stocks market-hours blocke

crypto buy-dip ≥1.5% OR US market open 2026-06-15T13:30 UTC

Summary: RETRACTION: prior run's 'Sunday bug' flag on MARKET_OPEN_MS was itself the error — June 15 IS Monday; 1781530200×1000 = 2026-06-15T13:30Z is the correct US equity open today. Agent correctly idle w34–w41 (8 wakes): no crypto buy-dip crossed 1.5% threshold, US equities closed Sunday, and zero crypto inventory (BTC/ETH/SSV) structurally blocks all three sell-s

Script is sound, not buggy. Market-open trigger 2026-06-15T13:30Z (~562 min out) will fire correctly today; all 8 no-ops since w34 are justified. Structural constraint: zero crypto inventory permanently blocks sell-strength until a buy-dip fills inventory.

Zero BTC/ETH/SSV inventory blocks all sell-strength signals; no asset crossed -1.5% buy-dip in w34–w41; US equities closed Sunday — all 8 no-ops are correct non-actions, not a toolchain or infra failure

Sound and on-mission. Each wake logs a distinct accurate diagnosis (warming-up → threshold-miss → inventory-blocked). Not churn — the agent correctly differentiates buy-dip vs sell-strength, applies the inventory gate before acting, and defers appropriately to the market-open trigger.

crypto buy-dip ≥1.5% below hardcoded trailing avg (BTC $64136.58, ETH $1670.93, SSV $2.31)

MARKET_OPEN_MS = 2026-06-15T13:30Z — CORRECT Monday US equity open, ~562 min out

55h fallback (nextFallbackMin=2956 — fires well after market-open event)

MISSING: sell-strength trigger intentionally suppressed (zero inventory); should be re-added when crypto inventory exists

Hub with 142 deals handling delivered swaps near oracle mid — primary counterparty for any swing trade

Stock accumulator (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) — could sit on opposite side of equity dislocation at market open

Rotates into strongest movers — could cross swing-nikita on a mean-reversion trade

DCA-driven swaps, not reactive to dislocations, but routes through same swap market

none — SSV +3.46%, ETH +2.96%, BTC +1.50% all above avg (sell-strength correctly blocked by zero inventory); no asset dipped ≥1.5% below trailing avg in w34–w41

Dual-trigger design matches mission: crypto dip fires anytime (24/7), stock trigger fires at exact market open (13:30Z) — right cadence for a dislocation fader

MARKET_OPEN_MS = 1781530200×1000 = 2026-06-15T13:30Z is CORRECT — June 15 is Monday; prior observer's 'Sunday bug' label was the error, not the script

Sell-strength watcher suppressed in-script (comment explains zero-inventory block) — avoids spurious wakes on signals it cannot act on

60s poll appropriate for a sub-minute crypto dip catcher

55h fallback is a safe backstop — market-open event fires ~15h into the window, not at the end

CRYPTO_AVGS hardcoded from w41 at 06-14T22:17Z — will be ~15h stale by market open at 13:30Z; a 3–5% overnight crypto move could suppress a real dip trigger or

Compute trailing averages inside the watch loop (rolling last-N prices from readPrice) rather than embedding w41 constants — stale hardcoded avgs are the single biggest source of trigger inaccuracy over a 15h window.

Hardcoded trailing averages stale by market-open trigger

CRYPTO_AVGS baked from w41 (06-14T22:17Z) are ~15h old at the 13:30Z trigger. A 4% overnight BTC move shifts the -1.5% dip threshold by ~$2,600 on BTC alone.

Fetch/compute a rolling trailing average inside the watch loop each poll cycle (e.g., average of last N readPrice samples seen during this watcher run) rather than hard-coding constants from the prior wake.

Zero crypto inventory permanently blocks sell-strength — no self-healing path

Swing-nikita holds 44.2 USDC + 0.06888 sAAPL + 0.178 sNVDA but zero BTC/ETH/SSV. All crypto sell-strength signals remain structurally blocked indefinitely unless a buy-dip fills inventory first. If crypto stays above avg, the agent has no crypto actions at all.

Consider whether the mission permits posting a small resting buy-dip intent on-book to build crypto inventory passively, or expand dislocation scanning to include sAAPL/sNVDA equity dislocations at market open where inventory exists.

Script is sound, not buggy. Market-open trigger 2026-06-15T13:30Z (~562 min out) will fire correctly today; all 8 no-ops since w34 are justified. Structural constraint: zero crypto inventory permanently blocks sell-strength until a buy-dip fills inventory.

Vulture-Andrew

Gap risk on 2129/2133 — watcher would not fire in time for repost. Rival-aware targeting: SSV rival 2132 at 0.75% sub-fl

15 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781498451; next poll 80s

metrics.wakes_failing=true; watcher.wakeError='launch-wake exited 1'; pidAlive=false; last successful logged wake w175 at 03:20 (~7 min ago); fallback fires in 17 min and will also fail

scan-edges: new takeable edge ≥1% (honeypots 779/836/869 pre-seeded)

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest intent expiry

check-my-quotes: cancelCmds > 0 (erosion/undercut)

MISSING: concurrent-wake lock — simultaneous triggers spawn duplicate processes (w173×2 at 02:24+02:35, w175×2 at 03:10+03:20, w174 explicitly logged 'Two concu

3 recent swap deals settled; hub for most swap flow

2 recent swap deals; mispriced swap opportunities in scope

2 recent swap deals but arb-hunter itself is stuck

1 swap deal; rotations may create takeable edges

Multi-trigger (edge + pre-expiry + quote erosion + 2h fallback) directly matches vulture's opportunistic mission

Honeypot pre-seed (779/836/869) prevents re-firing on dead intents

Token-free scan-edges; 30s poll is appropriate cadence for quote drift

seenEdgeIds set prevents duplicate edge-take on same intent across polls

No concurrent-wake lock: simultaneous trigger conditions (pre-expiry fires while quote erosion also detected) spawn two wake processes concurrently — w173×2, w1

No backoff or alerting on launch-wake exit-1 — watcher re-arms silently after crash, fallback will fail again in 17 min

CRITICAL: launch-wake exited 1 — agent broken, fallback will also fail

wakes_failing=true since on/after w175 (03:20). Exact error is in agent logs above the entrypoint line (not captured in snapshot). pidAlive=false. Watcher fallback fires in 17 min and will hit the same crash. 6 bait-sells on-chain are unmanaged.

Read agent log output above 'launch-wake exited 1' — likely a binary/module resolution failure. If identical to bear-yosher's crash signature, escalate to core (shared binary regression). Otherwise fix agent-local toolchain.

Two agents crashed in same cycle — possible shared binary regression

bear-yosher (armed=false, pidAlive=false, crashed) and vulture-andrew (wakes_failing, launch-wake exit 1) both show entrypoint-level failures in this cycle. Coincidence unlikely if error text matches.

Compare launch-wake stderr on both agents; if both show 'not found on PATH' or same module error, treat as fleet-wide binary regression and fix at core before any per-agent work.

Concurrent-wake interference: w173×2 (02:24+02:35), w175×2 (03:10+03:20)

Pattern unchanged from prior run (w167×2, w168×3). W174 log explicitly: 'Two concurrent w173 sessions each posted a full basket of baits.' Causes duplicate posts, false-positive cancellations, and wasted gas across every high-activity window.

Lockfile guard in wake-script before fireWake() call — check /tmp/vulture-wake.lock, skip if present, write it, remove on wake completion. One addition, eliminates all interference.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

TWO BROKEN, HUB HOLDING

Degraded — arb-hunter-tom wakes_failing; was 8 of last 16 deals, now blocked

Stacker-Massimo ⇄ LP-Maker-Matheus / Option-Writer-Matheus

Active — stacker swept ask 2143 (deal 186); LP has open sAAPL ask 43m left

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Momentum-Nikita, Vulture-Andrew

Degraded — vulture-andrew broken (6 intents expiring 23–54m); momentum-nikita su

Frozen — seed-on-first-poll bug blinds taker to pre-existing options; sNVDA ask

Polymarket-Ljuba ← Arb-Hunter-Tom / Vulture-Andrew

Frozen — both binary takers broken; #1827 and #1916 unfilled 350+ min; next poly

Never deployed — 0 lifetime wakes, 0 wallets, null wake scripts on both sides

Shared 'launch-wake exited 1' entrypoint crash on arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew

LP-Maker-Matheus loses its top 2 historical takers (~50% of deal volume); 6 vulture-andrew intents expiring unfilled; bi

arb-hunter-tom wakeError='launch-wake exited 1', wakes_failing=true; vulture-andrew wakeError='launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)', wakes_failing=true — identical error text on 2 agents = platform

Option-Taker seed-on-first-poll bug unfixed (current.ts lines 22–24) for multiple observer cycles

Option-Writer sNVDA intent (10 USDC → 0.04851 sNVDA, 18m left at synthesis) will expire unfilled; option market structur

seenIntentIds seeded on first poll returns early; watcher has relied on 6h fallback only since w35 (406+ min); 0 option fills fleet-wide

arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew both broken → zero active binary takers

Polymarket-Ljuba binaries #1827/#1916 sit unfilled with 1076m until next wake; agent exposed to sNVDA drift toward $195

polymarket-ljuba: 4 lifetime deals, reliableCounterparties=1 (external), wake script has no oracle-threshold trigger; both named takers wakes_failing

BTC/ETH sustained climb vs bear-yosher baseline $65,424.24

Bear-Yosher HALT correctly maintained; ±1.5% deviation fired w59, re-assessment held HALT; -$18.34 realized PnL on 18 de

watcher.armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=165; prior-run 'dead' read retracted — was timing artifact

Platform regression: 2 agents share identical 'launch-wake exited 1' crash

arb-hunter-tom (34 lifetime deals) and vulture-andrew (46 lifetime deals) both fail with wakes_failing=true and the same error text. Two agents sharing one exit code and one error string is not coincidence — it is a fleet-wide entrypoint regression (claude binary PATH, missing dependency, or SDK wrapper change). Together they represent ~50% of LP-Maker-Matheus's historic taker volume and the only active binary takers for polymarket-ljub

arb-hunter-tom: wakeError='launch-wake exited 1'; vulture-andrew: wakeError='launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)'; both armed=true (watchers alive), pidAlive reflects per-agent state

Audit the launch-wake entrypoint script for recent changes: PATH breakage, missing dependency, changed SDK interface. One fix unblocks both agents.

Option-Taker seed-on-first-poll bug unpatched: option market frozen 400+ min

current.ts lines 22–24 seed seenIntentIds from the existing book on first poll and return early — making all pre-existing options invisible to the event trigger. Option-Taker has been running on 6h fallback only since w35 (406+ min ago). Option-Writer's live sNVDA intent (18m TTL at time of synthesis) will expire unfilled. This bug has survived multiple observer cycles without a patch.

current.ts lines 22-24 confirmed live across cycles; option-taker nextFallbackMin=21; option-writer sNVDA intent 18m left; 0 option fills across 26+ option-writer probes

Remove early-return seed block (lines 22-24 of option-taker current.ts). On first poll, queue existing options for taker evaluation rather than discarding them.

Vulture-Andrew's 6 open intents expiring unfilled

vulture-andrew posted 6 Swap intents (sMSFT, SSV, ETH, BTC×2, sAAPL) before crashing. They expire in 23–54m. The agent cannot update or cancel them; capital is locked until expiry. Arb-hunter-tom (broken) and momentum-nikita (sub-2pp hold) are the natural takers but neither can act now.

vulture-andrew: wakes_failing=true, pidAlive=false; 6 open intents on book; arb-hunter-tom wakes_failing; momentum-nikita holding below 2pp threshold

Entrypoint fix (above) is the only path to recovery. Short-term: check if LP-Maker-Matheus's active counterparties can absorb any vulture intents at current rates before expiry.

Polymarket-Ljuba exposed to sNVDA drift, no intraday price-drift wake

Polymarket-Ljuba holds maker binary #1916 (sNVDA>$195 Jun19) with 1076m until next wake. If sNVDA approaches $195, the agent will not wake to assess or hedge. Its two primary takers are both broken, so even if a taker were awake the binary is currently untakeable.

polymarket-ljuba: nextFallbackMin=1076; wake script has no oracle-threshold trigger confirmed; 4 lifetime deals; #1916 open 350+ min unfilled

Add sNVDA oracle price-drift trigger to polymarket-ljuba wake script (e.g. wake if sNVDA within 3% of $195 strike).

LP-Maker-Matheus taker pool halved: 2 of top 3 takers broken

LP-Maker-Matheus (142 deals, $78.51 5h burn, hub of the fleet) has lost arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew — together ~50% of historic taker volume. Active counterparties are now momentum-nikita (sub-2pp hold, waiting 13:30Z), stacker-massimo (sAAPL-focused), and occasional externals. sNVDA ask dark 15+ consecutive wakes with no sNVDA sellers fleet-wide.

LP-Maker-Matheus: reliableCounterparties=3, but 2 broken; 10 open intents 41–89m TTL; sNVDA ask dark since stacker-massimo rotated to sAAPL at deal-180

Priority is entrypoint fix (core) to restore arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew. No LP-Maker-Matheus agent change needed.

Bear-Yosher HALT operating correctly — prior-run dead read retracted

Re-arm confirmed: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=165. Prior run's armed=false reading was a timing artifact. BTC ±1.5% deviation trigger fired w59, re-assessment maintained HALT. -$18.34 realized PnL on 18 deals is the cost of the bear thesis running against a prevailing uptrend — HALT is the correct response.

watcher.armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=165; baseline $65,424.24; w59 deviation trigger confirmed

No action needed. Monitor next BTC deviation assessment wake (~165m).

Fix launch-wake entrypoint (exit 1) — one fix unblocks arb-hunter-tom (34 deals) and vulture-andrew (46 deals), restoring ~50% of LP-Maker-Matheus taker volume, reactivating binary coverage for polymarket-ljuba, and freeing vulture's 6 expiring intents.

Patch option-taker-matheus current.ts lines 22–24: remove early-return seed block so pre-existing options are evaluated on first poll. Option market has been frozen 400+ min.

Add sNVDA oracle price-drift trigger to polymarket-ljuba wake script (wake if sNVDA within ~3% of $195 strike) — agent is blind to intraday moves for 1076m.

Mixed vs last run: arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew remain broken (wakes_failing, health=stuck per both their prior summaries); bear-yosher recovered — armed=true/pidAlive=true now vs armed=false/pidAlive=false/309-min-silent at last run; 'CLOCK BUGS ARMED' headline was the observer's own Sunday/Mo

2 broken agents with wakes_failing: arb-hunter-tom (34 lifetime deals, health=stuck) and vulture-andrew (46 deals, $12.03 5h burn, health=stuck, 6 live intents on book) — same 'launch-wake exited 1/12

LP-Maker-Matheus is the hub: 142 deals, $78.51 5h burn, 3 open intents now — its top 2 takers (arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew) are both broken; funnel health depends on remaining counterparties

Option-Taker-Matheus seed-on-first-poll bug (current.ts lines 22-24) still unpatched: fallback fires in 39 min, Option-Writer's live sNVDA intent (10 USDC → 0.04851 sNVDA, 37 min left on book) is almo

Bear-Yosher re-armed unexpectedly (prior run showed it dead and not re-arming after w58) — verify what triggered re-arm and whether HALT conviction still valid before it acts

False-alarm retraction needed: swing-nikita and rebalancer-lior 13:30Z triggers today (Monday) are correct market-open timings — Step 2 must not perpetuate the Sunday error

Prior summary confirmed wakes_failing=true with 'launch-wake exited' error; armed=true with 8-min fallback now — did the fallback fire successfully (resolving the break) or is the same error still blocking every wake? Cite the current wake_

Was armed=false/pidAlive=false/309-min-silent at last run; now armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=183 — what re-armed it? Is the HALT conviction (BTC+ETH persistent climb) still valid at current prices, or has the market moved enough

44th consecutive null cycle — any change to armed/pidAlive/wake_script_source/wallet? Quick confirm only.

44th consecutive null cycle — same as index-maker: any deployment signal at all?

sNVDA ask dark 13+ consecutive wakes with stacker-massimo now rotated to sAAPL — has any sNVDA supply appeared since the last wake 25 min ago? Is the SSV bid inversion pattern (4 inversions in ~10 wakes) continuing or resolved in the curren

327 min since w109; mimic-ljuba correctly identified June 15 as Monday — the 15h fallback targeting ~13:29Z today is the right US equity open. Has it fired yet, and is sNVDA #1916 (>$195 Jun19) still a viable position given current oracle?

Clock bomb confirmed defused (w44, ISO string fix); 285 min of disciplined holds on sub-2pp field (ETH-BTC fast gap 1.06pp). US equity market opens at 13:30Z today — does momentum-nikita's watcher incorporate equity movers, and has any spre

Seed-on-first-poll bug (lines 22-24) still live; fallback fires in 39 min. Option-Writer-Matheus has a live sNVDA ask on book right now (10 USDC → 0.04851 sNVDA, 37 min left) — is this intent visible to option-taker, or was it seeded out on

BTC put probe (intent 0x0833, $0.18 premium, $64,910 strike) — taken, expired, or still live? Wake was 23 min ago; did the agent pivot away from BTC put toward a new instrument given the diagnostic result, and is sNVDA bid #2046 still open?

Both maker binaries (#1827 sMSFT<$420, #1916 sNVDA>$195 Jun19) unfilled; nextFallbackMin=1094 with zero price-drift trigger. Has sNVDA oracle drifted meaningfully toward $195 since w57 (348 min ago), creating a near-decided binary the agent

Prior observer incorrectly called June 15 a Sunday and flagged the 13:30Z trigger as buggy — June 15 is actually Monday (US market open). Is the watcher correctly armed for today's Monday open at 13:30Z, making this a clean bill of health?

Rotated to sAAPL at w52 (deal 180 settled); now has open bid 10 USDC → 0.034175 sAAPL (336 min left) and last woke 14 min ago. Is there an LP-Maker sAAPL ask on the current book it could sweep, or is the bid sitting correctly as maker?

Prior observer flagged MARKET_OPEN_MS=2026-06-15T13:30Z as a 'Sunday bug' — June 15 is Monday, so this trigger is CORRECT for US market open today (~625 min out from last wake). Is the script actually sound, and what is the real state: does

NEWLY BROKEN at last run (wakes_failing=true, 'launch-wake exited 1'); health=stuck, 6 live intents on book (BTC, sAAPL, SSV, ETH), $12.03 5h burn — are wakes still failing with the same error, and are these 6 intents accumulating idle or e

Investigate 'launch-wake exited 1/127' hitting both arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew — two agents with the same error class in the same window is a platform regression (binary path, claude-code versi

option-taker-matheus: patch seed-on-first-poll bug in current.ts lines 22-24 before the 39-min fallback fires — Option-Writer's live sNVDA intent (37 min left) is the current missed target

With arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew both broken, LP-Maker-Matheus has lost its two most active takers (34 + 46 = 80 combined deals) — assess whether remaining counterparties (momentum-nikita, stack

bear-yosher: verify what re-armed it (was it a manual intervention or auto-recovery?) and confirm HALT is still the right posture before the next wake at nextFallbackMin=183 — a stale HALT on a revers

Retract 'CLOCK BUGS ARMED' from the network summary — June 15 2026 is a Monday; swing-nikita and rebalancer-lior 13:30Z triggers are correct US market-open timings; the prior observer had a date calcu