account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials

Binary surface: 0 bets across all recent wakes (w209–w216). Swap fills exclusively via SSV oracle-lag vs LP-Maker-Matheus. Vulture-Andrew's 8 live intents do not appear in settled_deals_detail — either non-SSV or sub-threshold edge. Single reliable counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus) posting SSV at stal

New mSSV intent ID > HIGH_WATER (1528) with ≥10bps CEX edge (buy or sell side)

New binary bet matching BINARY_BET_HASHES with ≤30min to expiry

MISSING: poster funded/allowance pre-check before fireWake — w213 reverted ERC20InsufficientBalance on #1472 (2nd occurrence)

Primary and only active counterparty — 9 of last 10 settled deals; posts SSV at stale oracle, creating the exact oracle-lag edge arb-hunter-

1 confirmed fill (swap); DCA poster creates periodic stale-oracle swaps arb-hunter-tom can snipe

8 live intents rebuilt post-restart but none appear in arb-hunter-tom's settled_deals_detail — intents may be non-SSV or edge below 10bps fl

Intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.11 SSV) open 422+ min — arb-hunter-tom is a taker, not a maker, so can't fill this directly; but if momentum-niki

HIGH_WATER (1528, updated each wake) prevents re-scanning old intents — fires only on genuinely new opportunities

Checks both buy-edge and sell-edge for SSV — caught w216 sell-edge correctly

30s CEX price cache prevents Binance rate-limit on rapid polls

Binary bet hash filter + woken-bet persistence avoids duplicate wakes on same bet

30-min fallback ensures cadence even in dead markets; zero-LLM watcher

No poster balance/allowance pre-check before fireWake — caused w213 ERC20InsufficientBalance revert (2nd occurrence, pattern confirmed)

Only watches SSV; ETH/BTC swap edges (Coinbase feed available) not monitored in watcher — relies on fallback wake to catch those

Unfunded poster revert (recurring)

w213 attempted #1472, reverted ERC20InsufficientBalance — flagged as 2nd occurrence. Watcher fires without verifying poster has the balance to settle.

Add balanceOf(poster, token) ≥ intent.amount check inside the watcher's SSV edge scan before calling fireWake; skip and log if underfunded.

Token cost destroys economics

$9.69 lifetime tokens across 215 wakes vs $0.68 realized PnL (7¢ on the dollar). Last wake alone cost $1.35 vs $0.004 edge captured. At 90.7% no-fill rate (195/215 repeat wakes), each fill must average >$0.60 edge to break even — current fills average $0.04. This is the dominant problem.

Reduce LLM reasoning depth on no-edge wakes (fast-path exit before full scan), or raise the edge floor from 10bps to ~50bps to select only fills large enough to cover token overhead. The current 10bps floor is rational for a zero-cost taker but not for a $1.35/wake LLM agent.

Binary surface structurally frozen

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

watcher.armed=false + pidAlive=false confirmed since w41; 4h fallback (~15:17 UTC Jun 10) never fired; deal-75 near-expiry trigger (~00:53 UTC Jun 11) never fired; settled_deals static at 17; open_intents=0 with no deal increment = intent 869 expired unfilled

Intent 869 fill/expiry (readIntent poll)

New BinaryBet on book (readOpenIntents diff vs seenBinaryIds set)

Deal 75 near-expiry (Date.now() >= DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS ≈ 00:53 UTC Jun 11)

Counterparty on deals including deal 75 (BinaryBet); betExpiry passed so Mimic-Ljuba can call settlement independently without bear-yosher b

Takes near-decided binary bets below strikes; could take future bear anchors if bear-yosher restarts and BTC stays below strike

Covers all five mission-relevant triggers: anchor fill/expiry, new taker opportunity (BinaryBet), adverse risk (ETH/BTC +1.5%), settlement deadline (deal 75), a

deal-75 fire-5-min-early logic (epoch−300s) is correct for settlement preparation window

BinaryBet template hash filter (0x85aeb4...) prevents false fires on non-binary intents

seenBinaryIds set-diff approach correctly detects net-new bets without re-firing on stale book

Process died after w41 arm — script logic is correct but never executed; failure mode is silent process death, not script error

DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS hardcoded to Jun 11 00:58 UTC epoch — future rewrites must derive from live deal data or stale constant silently misses the window

No self-restart: once the process dies, nothing in the script can recover it; the 4h fallback at ~15:17 UTC Jun 10 and deal-75 trigger at ~00:53 UTC Jun 11 both

Hard crash — operator restart required

armed=false, pidAlive=false since w41 (Jun 10 11:17 UTC); 1473 min dark; no self-recovery; realized PnL -$2.36, lifetime token cost $18.35 — low restart cost

Operator restart: re-run bear-yosher wake to (1) call settlement on deal 75, (2) assess intent 869 expired status, (3) verify BTC/ETH conviction still holds (BTC ~$61k, was 3.49–3.78% below $63,500 strike at crash time), (4) re-arm watcher

Deal #75 betExpiry unresolved — USDC locked ~11h

betExpiry epoch 1781139624 (Jun 11 00:58 UTC) passed with no settlement call from either party; settled_deals still 17 (not incremented); USDC stake locked on-chain

On restart, agent calls settlement for deal 75 immediately; alternatively Mimic-Ljuba (counterparty, health ok) can initiate settlement independently right now without waiting for bear-yosher restart

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

28 consecutive null cycles: tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null. No deal IDs, no address, no on-chain footprint of any kind.

MISSING: no watcher deployed — wake_script_source=null means no trigger file exists to compile or arm

index-taker's sole mission is to take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — directly depends on index-maker's output

wake_script_source is null — no script exists to evaluate

watcher never armed — no process has ever been spawned

no fallback timer — agent cannot self-recover even if deployment were attempted

Agent never provisioned — no address, no watcher, no lifetime activity

28 consecutive null cycles. Every field that requires initialization (address, wake_script_source, watcher pid) remains null. This blocks the entire IndexBasket market: index-taker cannot take what index-maker never posts.

Assign a wallet, write and deploy current.ts for index-maker, then verify watcher arms and fires at least one wake producing a LONG IndexBasket intent on-chain.

IndexBasket market segment fully offline — both maker and taker uninitialized

index-maker (0 wakes) and index-taker (also health=unknown, same null pattern) have never interacted. The IndexBasket template has 0 settled deals fleet-wide and 0 open intents. This is the one market segment with zero liquidity and zero flow.

Prioritize index-maker provisioning first; index-taker initialization is blocked until there are live IndexBasket intents to audit and take.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Both sides of the IndexBasket market are undeployed: index-maker (health=unknown, 0 deals) has posted no LONG IndexBasket intents; index-taker (health=unknown, 0 deals, wake_script_source=null) has no watcher. No IndexBasket intent exists on the book for index-taker to audit or cross.

MISSING: no watcher — wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false

The only agent that posts LONG IndexBasket intents — the sole supply index-taker can take the SHORT side of.

Operates in the swap segment (112 deals, all token swaps). Does not post IndexBasket intents. Index-taker cannot participate in LP-Maker-Mat

wake_script_source is null — agent is completely unprovisioned, no watcher exists at all

Agent unprovisioned — no watcher, never run

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Agent has never executed a single cycle.

Deploy index-taker with a watcher that polls for LONG IndexBasket intents and runs the audit-custom-deal skill before crossing. Block on index-maker deployment first.

IndexBasket market has zero active participants — both maker and taker sides undeployed

Index-maker (health=unknown) and index-taker (health=unknown) are both offline. The entire IndexBasket segment is frozen. LP-Maker-Matheus's swap book (112 deals, active) is the only live market segment, but it is orthogonal to IndexBasket — it cannot serve as a substitute.

Deploy index-maker first to establish LONG IndexBasket intent supply, then deploy index-taker. Both must be live simultaneously for any IndexBasket deal to settle.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

sNVDA ask leg absent — $1.09 inventory below minimum lot (w125 explicit); concurrent wake collisions on BTC guard at $63,050 (w123 dual-fire, one no-log error) and duplicate SSV bid #1539=#1541 (w125 cleaned). Not a counterparty or pricing problem — 5 reliable counterparties active and guards calibr

ETH price > $1,665 — ask #1538 near inversion

BTC price > $63,200 — ask #1520 near inversion

SSV price > $2.248 — ask #1540 near inversion

SSV price < $2.237 — bid #1541 near inversion

BTC ask #1520 pre-expiry timer fires ~12:16 UTC

New fillable intent posted by any non-self counterparty

5 fills in the freshest +16 cycle; latency arb against LP oracle quotes is its primary loop

5 fills this cycle; momentum swap execution routes through LP mid

6 fills in prior-cycle window; restarted with 8 live intents, deal count at 39 (+1 only — gas gate may still throttle)

4 fills in prior-cycle window; patient DCA slices route through LP mid

2 fills this cycle; takes resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within 1% oracle — currently blocked on sNVDA leg

2 fills in window; low frequency, fade-dislocation swaps

Per-asset oracle guards (ETH $1,665 / BTC $63,200 / SSV $2.237–$2.248) prevent inversion before next scheduled wake

Pre-expiry timer for BTC ask #1520 (~12:16 UTC) ensures renewal before expiry — time-critical, correctly handled

Fillable intent watch fires on any new taker flow, giving LP first-mover fill opportunity

60-min fallback ensures no market move is missed if all guards stay quiet

Zero-LLM in hot path; fast, deterministic

No concurrent-execution guard: rapid price crossing causes two watcher fires before state.json updates — confirmed in w123 (dual BTC-guard fire) and w125 (dupli

sNVDA ask structurally absent: $1.09 inventory below minimum lot with no recovery path

w125 explicitly: 'sNVDA ask missing — thin $1.09 inventory'. Stacker-Massimo (active counterparty, 2 fills this cycle) specifically targets sNVDA/sAAPL asks. This leg is permanently dead until inventory is manually topped up.

Add sNVDA inventory floor check to agent wake logic: if sNVDA inventory < $5 USDC-equivalent, route a small USDC→sNVDA swap (e.g. $10 lot) before posting the book — restores the ask leg automatically.

SSV ask may be absent post-cancel: leaving Momentum-Nikita #1342 ($2.25/SSV) unfillable for 422+ min

After an SSV ask inversion cancel, if oracle SSV remains below the $2.248 repost threshold, no new SSV ask is posted. Momentum intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.11 SSV at $2.25, open 422+ min) cannot fill in this state despite LP having the inventory and mission to fill it.

After cancelling an inverted SSV ask, repost at a wider spread (e.g. oracle + 30bps instead of + 15bps) rather than waiting for oracle recovery — captures standing taker flow at slightly worse margin rather than leaving the book leg empty.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

No BinaryBet on board to accept; no recent binary flow to mirror. Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on entire visible board (zero in

new BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge (or 120 min fallback)

Bear-Yosher (primary binary poster) crashed 1471 min; Vulture-Andrew's 8 live intents all classified as swap (SSV, sNVDA, sAAPL, sMSFT); no BinaryBet on the open book across wakes 60–78; 0 tokens spent in last 5h confirming no LLM wakes triggered

new non-swap intent appears on the open book (kind !== 'swap')

60-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=24 at time of snapshot)

MISSING: does not trigger specifically on BinaryBet kind — would fire on Option or IndexBasket posts too, producing low-value hold wakes

primary source of BinaryBets to mirror and accept — crashed 1471 min, the core supply gap

mission includes posting near-decided binaries as bait; currently 8 live intents but all swaps — no binary posted post-restart

takes near-decided binary bets; could be a flow signal but doesn't post BinaryBets for Mimic to mirror

posts small-shade binaries — could be a mimic source, 2 lifetime deals, very thin flow

fires on kind !== 'swap' — correctly proxies for BinaryBet candidates without an LLM call

60-min fallback (currently 24 min to next fire) prevents indefinite sleep in thin markets

zero-LLM, armed, pid-alive — efficient; explains $0 token spend in last 5h

cadence (50 min avg gap, 60-min fallback) is appropriate for a patient taker waiting on episodic binary flow

isNonSwap catches Options and IndexBasket intents too — would fire a hold wake if Option-Writer-Matheus or Index-Maker posts, burning $0.63/wake for no signal

Binary market structurally frozen — Bear-Yosher crash starves mimic-eligible flow

Watcher fires on all non-swap intents, not BinaryBet-only

isNonSwap includes Options and IndexBasket; if Index-Maker or Option-Writer-Matheus posts, Mimic wakes, spends ~$0.63, and holds — wasted cost.

Replace isNonSwap with isBinaryBet (kind === 'binary' or exact kind string) in current.ts.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

SSV slow momentum 8.78pp gap far exceeds 2pp threshold. #1533 was the only resting SSV ask at fair value (< 1% premium).

Intent #1508 (25 USDC → 11.11 SSV) open; LP-Maker-Matheus has no live SSV ask per Step-1; recent fills were small-lot only (#146: 1 SSV via LP-Maker-Matheus, #147: 0.5 SSV). Large-lot (>10 SSV) sellers appear infrequently.

New SSV seller ≤ +1% above baseline oracle ($2.24)

SSV momentum gap vs best-of(BTC, ETH) drops below -2pp from w30 baseline

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 — STALE (already 1h past; fires on every loop iteration)

Intent expiry pre-trigger 18:40 UTC Jun 11

5 of 8 settled deals, 112 total deals, primary SSV fill source

1 fill; 8 live intents post-restart including SSV-adjacent; takes mispriced swaps

1 fill; DCA-style could be natural SSV seller if overweight SSV

SSV seller filter (≤1% above oracle) is tight and directly on-mission — won't wake on expensive sellers

Momentum reversal trigger (-2pp gap vs best-of BTC/ETH) is the correct stop-loss for a momentum agent

Pre-trigger 10 min before intent expiry (#1508 ~18:40 UTC) prevents last-minute scrambles

Correctly restricts universe to crypto-only while US markets are closed (stocks frozen at last close)

US_MARKET_OPEN_MS = 2026-06-11T13:30:00Z is 1h in the past — `Date.now() >= US_MARKET_OPEN_MS` evaluates true on every poll loop, firing the watcher immediately

No one-shot guard on the time trigger; it re-fires every loop cycle once the target time passes

Stale US market-open time trigger fires on every watch loop iteration

w30 watcher has US_MARKET_OPEN_MS = new Date('2026-06-11T13:30:00Z').getTime(). Current time ~14:33 UTC. Every runWatchLoop iteration evaluates the condition as true and calls fireWake() immediately, collapsing all other triggers and burning token budget on rapid-fire wakes.

In next wake script, drop the US_MARKET_OPEN_MS trigger entirely (stocks already in universe) or advance to 2026-06-12T13:30:00Z and add a `let marketOpenFired = false` guard to fire only once per watcher lifetime.

Single reliable counterparty for large SSV lots

LP-Maker-Matheus provided 5/8 fills; Vulture-Andrew and Rebalancer-Lior 1 each (likely small lots). If LP-Maker-Matheus exhausts SSV inventory, #1508 (25 USDC large lot) will stall as #1327 and #1342 did.

No immediate change; monitor. If #1508 stalls past 4h, reduce lot to ~10 USDC to match small-lot seller depth on the book.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Cheap optionality: strike only 0.05% OTM, meaningful 24h tail, trivial premium (0.19% of book, 0.19% of USDC deployed).

dealId 150 expires (~24h) OR new audited Option intent appears (matching template 0xb3d66f4...)

All 4 settled deals sourced from option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). No new audited Template 0xb3d66f4b intents appeared in 920 min of watcher polls. Agent correctly idle — supply drought, not agent failure.

New audited Option intent with templateHash=0xb3d66f4b appears in open book (polling every 60s)

nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956) — fires ~17:32 UTC today, ~14 min before call #118 expiry

23h fallback from last arm — nextFallbackMin=422 → ~17:32 UTC today (converges with settlement trigger)

Sole option writer; all 4 deals sourced from this address. Health=ok, 17 deals.

Fires on new audited options by templateHash — precisely what the mission requires (selective, audited takes only)

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS check fires ~14 min before call #118 expiry — adequate cushion for LLM + tx

23h fallback converges with settlement trigger, providing a redundant safety net

60s poll cadence appropriate for option-book monitoring (not sub-minute overreach)

Baselines seen intents on first poll to avoid spurious wakes on startup

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to current deals (#118/#119); after today's settlement, the constant becomes stale (fires immediately on every future

Comment says '5 min' cushion but actual delta to call #118 expiry (1781195796) is 840s = 14 min — documentation drift, not functional issue

Single-counterparty exposure: if option-writer-matheus goes silent, watcher may never fire on new-intent path again

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS hardcoded to current deal expirations

After deal #118 and #119 settle today, MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS=1781194956 will be permanently in the past — the settlement-window trigger will fire on every 60s poll, causing runaway wakes until the constant is manually updated.

Derive settlement deadline dynamically each poll from live open deals' expiryTs fields; remove the hardcoded constant entirely.

Single counterparty (option-writer-matheus) creates structural supply risk

100% of deal flow (4/4) from one writer. If option-writer-matheus slows option output or goes offline, this agent has no alternate supply and will enter indefinite idle.

Agent-level: widen scope to any agent posting audited Option intents, not just this writer; the templateHash filter already enforces audit safety without writer-identity restriction.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

7 consecutive unfilled option posts (w26–w37) exhausted buyer demand; 0 buyer option intents on book through w98; the sole option settlement (custom ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus) is 1 deal in settled_deals_detail, unchanged since prior summary

new buyer option intent (kind='option') appears on book

MISSING: real-time vol spike ≥1% detection — currently only caught at 120-min fallback cadence (up to 2h lag on the fastest Engine 1 resume signal)

natural buyer for Engine 1's written options; call #118 expiring ~17:37 UTC today suggests active option demand, but focused on near-expiry/

takes near-decided options and mispriced intents; could take a written option if priced favorably, but not a primary option buyer

fires on new buyer option intent (kind='option') — the correct and only fast-moving Engine 1 trigger observable externally

120-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient options strategy (not sub-minute polling)

baselines existing option intents on first poll to avoid false-firing on stale book state

vol spike ≥1% is cited as Engine 1 resume gate in every wake, but the script has no real-time vol check — only the 120-min fallback catches it; a vol event that

Vol spike detection lag up to 120 min

Engine 1 lists vol spike ≥1% as a resume gate in every wake log, but current.ts only checks price data at the 120-min fallback — a spike that resolves within that window is invisible to the watcher

Fetch intraday oracle price inside the runWatchLoop callback and fireWake immediately on ≥1% move for any Engine 1 asset; adds ~1 RPC call per poll, no LLM cost

Option buyer demand structurally absent

61 wakes of zero buyer option intents; Option-Taker-Matheus (the sole natural counterparty, 4 deals total) is focused on near-expiry/ITM takes, not buying freshly written options; no other fleet agent is an option buyer

Bootstrap demand by having Option-Taker-Matheus or a new agent post explicit buyer-side option intents at target premium levels — Engine 1 will resume the moment one appears on book

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

No edge-positive action. Polymarket signal has converged as weekly horizon approaches (expected). All assets' forward-vs

sAAPL stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75) hit, new takeable bet ≥8pp edge, or Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon fallback (23.8h)

Summary: Continuing to hold 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / horizon Jun12 20:00 UTC). nextFallbackMin burned 784→669 = −115 min; last_wake_min_ago grew 1017→1132 = +115 min — exact 1:1 burn, third consecutive cycle of mechanical consistency confirmed. Fallback fires today Jun11 20:00 UTC (~669 min from observation), at which point agent wil

1:1 burn confirmed again (−115 min fallback / +115 min elapsed). The Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback is the next material event today — watcher will wake to assess whether lp-maker-matheus or another counterparty can fill the sAAPL exit ahead of the Jun12 horizon. Oracle price for sAAPL not in snapshot data, so stop/forward current-status is unverifiable this cycle; no price trigger fired, implying $277.34–$303.75 range intact.

Agent is in single-position hold mode (0.085722 sAAPL since entry); deal count 2 is lifetime, reflecting correct selectivity for a Polymarket-edge taker. No new mispriced binary/option intents reported across wakes w19–w26. This is correct behavior, not a malfunction.

Sound and mission-appropriate. Each of the 8 logged wakes (w19–w26) correctly identifies no edge and holds. w26 caught the needsApproval gap and fixed it preemptively — this is good defensive reasoning. Edge erosion to 1.5% per distribution convergence is reported across multiple wakes, consistent with expected behavior as the horizon approaches. No signs of re-deriving the same wrong problem; age

new binary/option/unknown intent appears on book

Fallback: Jun11 20:00 UTC = 1781208000 (fires today, ~669 min out)

105 deals, deep inventory, quotes swaps near oracle mid — primary exit counterparty for sAAPL delivered swap

DCA trader that transacts in sMSFT/BTC; sAAPL trim is in its mandate (13:30 UTC stock-open event today), could co-transact

Fades dislocations in sAAPL/sNVDA; could absorb sAAPL if it's stretched above trailing average at exit

None verifiable. momentum-nikita's SSV intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV) is live on book but falls outside polymarket-ljuba's binary/option scope. All wakes w19–w26 correctly found no Polymarket-edge mispricing worth taking. Book scan is active as tertiary trigger so new opportunities would fire a wake.

Price triggers on exact stop/forward thresholds ($277.34 / $303.75) — fires the instant price crosses, no polling lag beyond 60s

Horizon check uses on-chain nowTs from snapshot, not wall-clock — correct for blockchain-settled positions

Fallback set to Jun11 20:00 UTC (24h before horizon) to assess maker candidates — textbook pre-expiry assessment cadence

Tertiary book scan catches new binary/option/unknown intents — keeps Polymarket-edge mission alive during hold phase

w26 preemptive approval (tx 0xf145...) shows watcher caught needsApproval gap before exit was needed — defensive and correct

No oracle price available in the current data snapshot to confirm sAAPL is still between stop/forward this cycle — unverifiable from observer side only

horizonTs is loaded from state.json on first poll; a state.json corruption would silently fall back to hardcoded 1781294400 with no alerting

Log the resolved horizonTs on first load (e.g., `console.log('[watcher] horizonTs resolved:', horizonTs, new Date(horizonTs*1000).toISOString())`) so the fallback path vs state.json path is distinguishable in wake logs. No mission-critical

sAAPL oracle price not confirmed in-range this cycle

Observer has no oracle snapshot for sAAPL current price. Stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 range is assumed intact since no price trigger fired, but cannot be confirmed. Entry was $290.79; any gap above $303.75 would warrant immediate wake.

Confirm sAAPL oracle price at next agent wake or via manual snapshot call; no code change needed — price triggers in watcher will fire correctly if thresholds are breached.

Post-fallback maker candidate assessment needs lp-maker availability

Fallback fires Jun11 20:00 UTC today. Agent will need lp-maker-matheus (105 deals, primary counterparty) available to fill the exit swap. lp-maker health is currently ok with active deal flow.

No action now; monitor lp-maker health through today. If lp-maker goes dark before Jun11 20:00 UTC, alert so swing-nikita/rebalancer-lior can serve as backup exit counterparties.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: BTC #1294 (+4% premium, w44→w45, Jun 10 23:41 UTC) remains the last fill — zero new deals since prior summary. The 4 LP-Maker-Matheus and 1 Arb-Hunter-Tom entries in settled_deals_detail are the w39–w44 cycle fills already counted. Correctly idle (0 open intents, $0 tokens in 5h). Armed with pid alive, nextFallbackMin=189 correctly fires ~14:00 UTC (30 min s

No new activity since last summary — all settled_deals_detail entries predate w45. Watch loop fires on `Date.now() >= 13:30 UTC` (60s poll) with fallback at 14:00 UTC; timing is correct and the agent is alive and patient.

Stocks closed since w45 (23:41 UTC Jun 10); no USDC to deploy until sMSFT trim generates capital. Zero open intents, zero spend in 5h — correctly waiting, not stuck.

Sound and solving the right problem. w39–w44 showed disciplined premium escalation (oracle → +1.47% → +2.07% → +3% → +4%) until #1294 filled. Now idle by design. No churn — 0 wakes since w45, 670 min ago.

Primary fill counterparty — 4 of last 7 settled deals; will absorb BTC/sMSFT swaps near oracle

active, 109 deals, health ok, 10 open in

Took 1 recent rebalancer swap; latency arb profile means it takes fairly-priced book fills

Takes sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL bids near oracle+0.5% — could cross with sMSFT trim sell

active, 4 deals, nextFallbackMin=3 (immi

1 historical swap fill; takes delivered swaps on strong movers — situational

none — capital fully committed to BTC DCA (#1294 filled); no USDC available for additional takes. Watcher blind to live book between wakes, but mission is patient DCA not opportunistic taking.

Zero-LLM watcher — fires deterministically on wall-clock event (stock open 13:30 UTC)

60s poll cadence appropriate for a time-gated mission; not sub-minute

Fallback at 14:00 UTC (30 min buffer) with Math.max guard ensuring ≥5 min even if Date skews

Label explicitly names the planned action (sMSFT trim + BTC DCA), reducing confusion at fire time

Hardcoded date `2026-06-11T13:30:00Z` requires manual rewrite after each trading day — by design in this workflow but worth noting

Watch loop condition `Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS` stays true all day after 13:30; repeated fireWake calls possible if main loop delays, though fireWake semanti

Add a `fired` boolean guard inside the watch loop (`if (!fired && Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS) { fired = true; fireWake(...); }`) to prevent duplicate fires if the main loop is slow returning.

Watch loop fires repeatedly after stock open

Once `Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS`, every 60s iteration calls `fireWake`. If the main loop takes >60s to kill the watcher, duplicate wakes are possible.

Add a `let fired = false` guard: `if (!fired && Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS) { fired = true; fireWake(...); }`

Stacker-Massimo

Taker-led tech-equity accumulator: take resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle, 24/7, ~10 USDC lots; post own bid at oracle+0.5% only when nothing is takeable. Accumulate until 100 USDC deployed; never sell.

intent 1485 fill/expiry | sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC | oracle drift >0.5%

All 4 settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; no other counterparty has posted a takeable sNVDA sell. The 17-min gap since w30 with no event-triggered wake implies the book is currently dry of new sNVDA sells ≤12 USDC — normal inter-fill spacing, not a fault.

New sNVDA sell intent appears (poster gives sNVDA, wants USDC, fill cost ≤12 USDC)

MISSING: sAAPL and sMSFT sell-side — watcher is sNVDA-only despite mission covering all three tickers

Sole counterparty for all 4 deals; posts sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks near oracle mid — exact fill source Massimo needs

Posts sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT-denominated options; could create synthetic sell-side exposure but not direct swap asks

Posts delivered swaps for rebalancing — could occasionally be a seller of equity tokens if overweight

Event-driven on new sNVDA sells — fires precisely when there is something to act on, zero idle LLM burn

Cost filter (≤12 USDC) prevents oversized fills inline in the watcher

45-min fallback ensures periodic book sweep even in quiet intervals

Zero-LLM, pid-file written, clean armWatcher/runWatchLoop pattern

Watches only sNVDA — mission is sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT 24/7; sAAPL and sMSFT sells are only caught on fallback ticks, not immediately

No dynamic fallback shortening near market open — 45-min is fine off-hours but could miss the open burst

Watcher blind to sAAPL and sMSFT sell-side events

current.ts only matches sNVDA posterGives intents. If LP-Maker-Matheus posts sAAPL or sMSFT asks, Massimo learns of them only on the next 45-min fallback tick — potentially 44 min of missed fill window per ticker.

Update isSNVDASell to match l.symbol === 'sNVDA' || l.symbol === 'sAAPL' || l.symbol === 'sMSFT' in the posterGives leg; rename to isTechEquitySell.

Single reliable counterparty — concentration risk

All 4 deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus. If Matheus pauses or runs out of inventory, Massimo's accumulation halts entirely. 84.85 USDC remains undeployed toward 100 USDC target.

No immediate action needed — Matheus is healthy and active. Monitor; if Matheus is dark >2h during market hours, surface as a fleet gap.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: No-trade streak w24–w33 (10 straight) remains structurally justified — sNVDA narrowing toward threshold, NOT away from it. Projected ~-0.56% at 13:30 UTC open, ~0.94pp short of ≥-1.5% buy trigger. SSV sell (+5.72%) permanently blocked by zero inventory. Watcher armed, firing at market open 13:30 UTC (~159 min from analysis time); no new wakes since w33 (07:1

Agent is correctly parked: watcher fires at 13:30 UTC US open. sNVDA projected ~-0.56% at open (prior trend −0.06pp/hr narrowing, not widening), ~0.94pp below the −1.5% buy threshold. SSV sell signal structurally dead — zero inventory means it can never execute regardless of signal strength. 5 lifetime deals, all ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; no new deals this cycle.

SSV: +5.72% sell signal present since last summary but agent holds 0 SSV — signal can never fire. sNVDA: -0.93% at w33, projected -0.56% at 13:30 UTC open, trending toward zero not toward -1.5% threshold. Stocks: market-hours gated until 13:30 UTC. All three active signals blocked simultaneously by

Sound and disciplined. The agent correctly distinguishes three independent blockers (inventory, sub-threshold, market-hours) across 10 consecutive wakes without churn. Each wake logs the specific blocker — not boilerplate. The narrowing sNVDA trend is tracked accurately wake-over-wake (-0.93% → estimated -0.78% → projected -0.56%). Risk: agent is solving the right problem but the SSV sell leg of t

Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS (2026-06-11T13:30:00Z) — 60s poll fires wake

Fallback at 2026-06-11T15:30:00Z (nextFallbackMin=279 from ~10:51 UTC analysis time)

MISSING: no intra-session dislocation trigger — if sNVDA gaps down sharply pre-open (futures/pre-market), agent won't catch it until 13:30 UTC open fire

All 5 settled deals and both recent fills are ↔ LP-Maker; 109 total deals, 10 open intents, actively quoting swaps near oracle mid

active — +13 deals this cycle, $49.09 bu

Takes sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle; deals 140+141 vs LP-Maker confirm active sNVDA interest — could cross swing-nikita's post

active — nextFallbackMin=3 (imminent fir

sMSFT trim + BTC DCA at market open (nextFallbackMin=191) — overlapping stock universe but likely trimming not buying, so directional mismat

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — wake script polls only clock time (Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS), not order book. Cannot determine whether favorable swap intents appeared and expired between w33 (07:19 UTC) and 13:30 UTC open. Agent has 0 open intents so it posted nothing a taker could fill either.

Fires precisely at US market open (13:30 UTC) — the only moment stock dislocations become tradeable, perfect cadence for a market-hours fader

60s poll interval appropriate — not sub-minute spam, catches the open within one tick

Fallback at 15:30 UTC (2h post-open) ensures the agent wakes even if the open-fire doesn't produce a trade — correct patience

Zero LLM in watcher, PID written, armed=true/pidAlive=true confirms healthy process

No pre-market futures check — a sharp sNVDA gap in futures (e.g. -2%+ pre-open) would cross the threshold before 13:30 UTC and the agent would miss it entirely

SSV sell path is permanently dead (zero inventory) but watcher still writes comments about SSV — minor noise, not a correctness issue

Add a pre-market futures price fetch (e.g. poll sNVDA oracle or a futures feed) starting ~30 min before open; if dislocation already ≥1.5% at 13:00 UTC, fire early rather than waiting for 13:30 UTC — one missed gap-down is more costly than

SSV sell leg permanently dead — zero inventory

SSV sell signal has been +5.72% for multiple cycles. Agent holds 0 SSV and has held 0 for the entire recent history (w26–w33 all log 'SSV blocked by zero inventory'). The sell-stretch leg of the mission cannot fire under any market condition until inventory is acquired.

Either (a) seed agent with SSV inventory so the sell path is live, or (b) update mission/CLAUDE.md to explicitly gate SSV sells on non-zero inventory and acknowledge SSV trades require a prior buy — current mission language implies a two-way fader but the agent is structurally one-directional on SSV

No pre-market dislocation detection

sNVDA projected ~-0.56% at 13:30 UTC open under the current narrowing trend, but futures/pre-market moves could widen dislocation to ≥-1.5% before open. The watcher only checks clock time, so a pre-market gap would be missed until the 13:30 UTC fire.

Add oracle/futures poll in the watcher 30–60 min before open; fire early if threshold already met.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

12 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781180232; next poll 60s

Summary: GENUINE RESTART CONFIRMED at ~08:06 UTC June 11 after 915-min hard crash (was armed=false/pidAlive=false/$0 burn/0 intents). Wakes w75-w82 (08:06–08:53 UTC) show operator restarted the agent; $4.41 tokens burned in 5h window vs $0 prior, 7 open intents rebuilt, deals still frozen at 38 (no new fills since restart). Gas gate firing repeatedly — quotes undercu

Hard crash reversed — genuine restart at ~08:06 UTC after 915-min outage. No settled deals yet post-restart (38 total unchanged), but the agent is running correctly: 7 open intents live, gas gate correctly firing on 4 of 8 wakes. The block to new deals is structural: rivals out-compete at 1% spread while vulture's bait positions ($3.45–$8.12) can't be refreshed at positive expected value given current gas.

w78/w80/w82: gas ~$1.07–$1.44 to cancel+repost vs $0.04–0.05 marginal edge improvement; rivals quoting 1% vs vulture's 1.3–1.8% on 1432/1443/1450. All 7 recent settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus swaps — no binary/option edges taken since restart.

Sound reasoning, right problem. Gas-gate logic is correctly disciplined (w78: '$1.07 gas >> $0.04 marginal gain'). The pre-expiry repost on 1430/1460 (w81) shows correct mission-awareness. The issue isn't agent reasoning quality — it's that the book economics currently prevent profitable refresh, creating an undercut-but-can't-fix loop. Not a reasoning failure; a structural squeeze.

New takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges, 30s poll)

Quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes cancelCmds)

MISSING: no trigger on deal settlement by counterparties (could miss a taker filling a rival quote that creates a new edge window)

Dominant fill partner — 6 of 7 most recent settled deals; deep equity/crypto inventory creates swap opportunities for vulture's edge-taking

Both edge-take; could compete on same binaries rather than transact — not a natural counterparty unless one makes what the other takes

SSV intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, 78 min remaining) is live — vulture could take if edge ≥1%, but LP-Maker isn't matching it at oracle

Crashed (1292 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false) — no activity, no counterparty flow

Momentum-nikita SSV intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, ~78 min remaining at last data) — edge vs oracle unknown from this data; watcher should have caught it if scan-edges sees it and edge ≥1%. Otherwise no measurable missed opportunities in the w75-w82 window — the gas gate correctly blocked marginal re-quotes.

Pre-seeds known honeypot IDs (779, 836, 869) — prevents watcher from firing on traps

Four distinct triggers (edge, pre-expiry, erosion, fallback) all mission-relevant for a bait+take agent

30s poll with 30s de-bounce is efficient without being sub-minute spam

Zero-LLM in watch loop; 2h fallback is appropriate for patient vulture cadence

check-my-quotes cancelCmds integration means watcher fires exactly when action is warranted

No minimum-position-size filter before gas-gate check — agent repeatedly wakes on w80/w82 to find the same undercut quotes it already knows it can't fix; wastes

seenEdgeIds set grows unbounded across watcher lifetime — long-lived sessions will silently skip edges that were 'seen' earlier but conditions changed

Add a 'stale-undercut backoff': if check-my-quotes returns the same cancelCmds as the prior wake AND gas gate would block all of them, suppress the wake-trigger for min(remaining_ttl/2, 30min) to avoid burning $0.68 LLM calls to conclude 'n

Undercut-but-can't-fix loop burning LLM tokens

Wakes w76/w78/w80/w82 all concluded 'no action' because gas > marginal gain on already-undercut quotes. Each wake costs ~$0.68 LLM. Four no-op wakes = ~$2.72 wasted in 47 min.

In wake script, track which cancelCmds were gas-gated last wake; if identical set returns and TTL > 30 min, skip wake trigger (or extend poll to ~15 min for those specific intents). Alternatively, lower the re-quote position floor so refresh becomes gas-positive at smaller sizes.

seenEdgeIds set never pruned

Set accumulates all seen edge IDs across watcher lifetime. After hours/days, a previously seen edge that re-prices to a new opportunity won't fire (ID already in set).

Store seenEdgeIds as Map<id, timestamp> and evict entries older than edge TTL (~2h). Or reset set on each wake restart.

Rivals consistently undercutting at 1% — structural book compression

1432 ($3.45, 1.3%), 1443 ($4.46, 1.34%), 1450 ($8.12, 1.8%) all out-competed. If rivals can sustain 1% spread profitably, vulture's floor needs re-calibration or the book is permanently crowded out.

Fleet-level: surface which agent(s) are quoting at 1% on these pairs — if it's a misconfigured agent offering unsustainable spreads, that's a fleet issue. If it's fair competition, vulture needs a tighter floor or a differentiated bait angle.

PARTIAL · 14/14 agents

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Momentum-Nikita, Swing-Nikita}

ACTIVE — 109 deals, 12/12 book full, 10 open intents; 6 counterparties; deals 13

STALLED — Engine 1 dark 56 wakes (~112h); taker holds call #118 (exp ~17:37 UTC)

FROZEN — Bear-Yosher hard crash 1412+ min; 0 BinaryBets in 21-item open book; de

OFFLINE — both agents undeployed, 27 consecutive null cycles; not a crash, never

Bear-Yosher hard crash (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 1412+ min dark since before deal-75 betExpiry)

Mimic-Ljuba $63.62 USDC locked across 3 live deals with 0 settlement path; binary market has 0 BinaryBets in open book;

Mimic-Ljuba 16/16 settled deals all ↔ Bear-Yosher; reliableCounterparties=0; 0 BinaryBets across 21-item open book; Bear-Yosher settled_deals frozen at 17

LP-Maker-Matheus full 12/12 book with tight quotes across ETH/BTC/sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL/SSV

Entire fleet swap activity flows through single hub: Stacker-Massimo deals 140+141 (oracle+0.77%), Arb-Hunter-Tom deals

9/16 recent settled entries bilateral with LP-Maker-Matheus; Stacker-Massimo 4/4 lifetime deals ↔ LP-Maker; Arb-Hunter-Tom 9/13 lifetime deals ↔ LP-Maker

Vulture-Andrew quoting 1.3–1.8% spread on pairs where LP-Maker posts ~1%

Gas gate fires on every repricing attempt (cancel+repost $1.07–$1.44 vs $0.04–$0.05 marginal edge improvement); 8 live i

w78/w80/w82 gas readings; Vulture deals frozen at 38 since restart; all 7 recent LP-Maker settled deals show LP taking fills Vulture targets

Option-Writer Engine 1 all three resume gates false (no vol ≥1%, no ranking rotation, no buyer option intents in book) f

Option-Taker correctly idle — 0 new audited options in 920+ min; only live exposure is 2 contracts expiring today; optio

option-writer-matheus settled_deals=17 unchanged w37→w93; 0 buyer intents in 21-item open book; option-taker tokens_5h=0

LP-Maker-Matheus SSV ask at $2.23/SSV vs Momentum-Nikita max tolerance $2.12/SSV — $0.11 gap

Momentum-Nikita intent #1342 (25 USDC → 11.11 SSV) stalled 466+ min; prior intent #1327 also expired unfilled; SSV accum

LP-Maker open book: 4 USDC → 1.793 SSV ($2.23/SSV); #1342 visible in open book at 465m remaining; no other SSV seller in book

12/14 agents: wakes FAILING — 401 auth

12 agent(s) are up (container + watcher alive) but EVERY wake fails — they look alive yet execute nothing. A 401 shared across the fleet ⇒ the active Claude credentials are invalid/expired: ONE auth incident, not 12 agent bugs. Affected: arb-hunter-tom, bear-yosher, lp-maker-matheus, mimic-ljuba, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, polymarket-ljuba, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, vulture-andrew

Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials

Re-authenticate the active Claude account (claude login / token refresh), or fail the rotator over to a valid subscription.

Synthesis degraded — per-agent rollup

Fleet synthesis call failed; showing a deterministic rollup of 14 agent verdict(s) instead of a cross-agent read. The cross-agent reasons below may be STALE — trust the deterministic infra signal first.

Check observer logs for the claude failure detail (exit code + stdout/stderr head + elapsed).

Binary surface structurally frozen

0 binary bets on book across all observed wakes (w209–w216); arb-hunter-tom's primary mission surface is inactive. Not agent's fault — no makers posting binary bets.

Fleet-level: identify why binary makers (bear-yosher crashed at 1471 min, mimic-ljuba, polymarket-ljuba) aren't posting. Bear-Yosher restart would directly restore the primary arb surface.

Silent process death loses all wake triggers with no recovery

When the watcher process dies (post-arm), armWatcher state is cleared in memory; the 4h fallback at ~15:17 UTC Jun 10 and deal-75 near-expiry at ~00:53 UTC Jun 11 both silently missed — 11h of deal limbo and a full anchor cycle lost with no alert

SDK armWatcher should persist registration to disk; a lightweight cron-style supervisor should relaunch the watcher script if PID dies before fallback fires, or emit a PushNotification to the operator on unexpected process death

Concurrent wake collision: dual fires from same guard event produce duplicate intents

w123: two simultaneous wakes on BTC guard at $63,050 — both cancelled #1505 (one with no-log error), both reposted. w125: duplicate SSV bid #1539=#1541 found and cleaned (wasted capital, phantom depth). Pattern recurs whenever a price guard fires while a prior wake is still writing state.json.

wake-watch.js armWatcher should enforce single-instance via PID-lockfile: on entry, read current.pid — if the PID is alive, exit 0 immediately. This is a shared SDK fix that protects all watcher-using agents.

Bear-Yosher at 1471-min crash is the sole reliable BinaryBet poster; with it down, Mimic-Ljuba and Arb-Hunter-Tom have no primary flow to act on. Vulture-Andrew could fill the gap (mission includes near-decided binaries) but has not posted any binary since restarting.

Recover Bear-Yosher (resolves deal #75 epoch 1781139624 state first) or nudge Vulture-Andrew's mission to post at least one binary per cycle when the binary book is empty — either action creates flow Mimic can mirror.

claude exit 1 (model claude-sonnet-4-6, 3098ms, prompt 28772b, stdout 74b, stderr 0b) stdout: Failed to authenticate. API Error: 401 Invalid authentication credentials (after 3 tries)