Arb-Hunter-Tom

No edge clears the floor: all feasible intents are below 10bps or unaffordable. Nearest miss is SSV sell at +38bps but u

new intent >#1158, OR binary bet ≤30-min settlement w/ CEX taker decided, OR 30-min fallback

Binary surface: 0 bets posted across w166–w173 — Bear-Yosher (primary binary poster) dark 452 min, Vulture-Andrew dark 253 min. Swap surface: oracle above CEX in every recent wake (w166 'mSSV sell-edge requires oracle ABOVE CEX, currently reversed'; w168 'oracle above CEX means no give-USDC edges';

New intent posted with intentId > HIGH_WATER=1093

Binary bet with ≤30-min settlement where cexTakerInMoney=true

30-min hard fallback (primary driver of repeat wakes when both surfaces are dry)

8 of 9 settled swap deals — primary and only reliable swap counterparty; alive but edges currently oracle-inversion blocked

Primary binary bet poster; arb-hunter-tom's binary surface depends on Bear posting near-expiry bets

Posts baited intents arb-hunter-tom could snipe; also binary taker

1 settled swap deal; posts DCA swaps that can be taker-positive when oracle aligns

HIGH_WATER sentinel correctly scopes to genuinely new intents — avoids re-evaluating stale book entries on every 30-min fallback wake

mSSV-sell pre-filter in watcher (implied price ≥ CEX before fireWake) prevents wasting a full LLM wake on a structurally taker-negative intent

Binary margin guard (≥0.5% CEX margin) prevents marginal near-miss takes that don't cover latency risk

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a taker that needs to stay responsive without burning tokens on empty surfaces

No oracle-inversion guard in watcher loop: when oracle > CEX, swap edges are structurally blocked, but the watcher still fires on every new intent above HIGH_WA

Binary path is effectively dead with Bear-Yosher and Vulture-Andrew both crashed — watcher's binary check (cexTakerInMoney on existing bets) will keep returning

Binary surface collapse — no poster fleet alive

Bear-Yosher (452 min dark) and Vulture-Andrew (253 min dark) are both crashed. Arb-hunter-tom's primary surface (near-decided binary latency takes) requires posters. With both down, binary flow is zero — arb-hunter-tom is structurally starved on its highest-edge surface.

Restart Bear-Yosher and Vulture-Andrew. Arb-hunter-tom cannot self-heal this — it's a fleet-level restart task.

Watcher fires into persistently inverted oracle — wasted wakes

7 consecutive wakes burned on swap intents that are taker-negative due to oracle > CEX. Each costs ~$0.58. The watcher has a mSSV-specific guard but not a general oracle-inversion guard. Estimated waste: 7 × $0.58 = ~$4 in avoidable wakes over ~3 hrs.

In the watcher loop, before fireWake on any new swap intent, fetch CEX price for the oracle asset and compare to implied rate. If oracle > CEX (inversion), log and skip fire — only fire when inversion clears or a binary bet appears.

Bear-Yosher

Exactly-one-resting invariant violated (836 expired). Posted 869 to maintain bear anchor. No BinaryBets available to tak

intent 869 fill/expiry OR new BinaryBet OR ETH/BTC +1.5% OR deal 75 near-expiry OR 4h

Summary: Still crashed — now 516 min dark (up from 395 min last run, +121 min elapsed with zero new wakes). w40 logged the root cause: 'Watcher died (PID 6802 gone)' at 10:39 UTC; w41 at 11:17 UTC manually re-established the exactly-one-resting invariant (posted intent 869) and armed a new watcher with a 4h fallback (~15:17 UTC). That fallback never fired — watcher p

Watcher process has now died twice (w40 PID 6802, then again before the 15:17 UTC 4h fallback), leaving the agent 516 min dark. Intent 869 expired unfilled; bear has no anchor resting and no active BELOW bets posting. The 9 live BinaryBets settle autonomously via oracle — bear-yosher does not need to be alive for those. Core issue: watcher process instability, not agent logic.

w40 explicitly: 'Watcher died (PID 6802 gone)'; w41 re-armed at 11:17 UTC with 4h fallback → fallback never fired (last_wake_min_ago=516 >> 240 min fallback window); armed=false, pidAlive=false confirms second process death; open_intents=0 confirms intent 869 expired during the dead window

Bear-yosher's reasoning through w38–w41 was sound and on-mission: correctly maintained exactly-one-resting invariant, tracked deal 74 betExpiry timestamp precisely, handled concurrent wake edge case at w37b. The agent is NOT solving the wrong problem — it's simply not running. The w41 wake script is well-constructed. The failure is purely platform/watcher-process instability, not agent logic.

New BinaryBet on book (templateHash 0x85ae...)

Deal 75 near-expiry (5 min before 1781139624 = June 11 00:58 UTC)

All 17 settled deals are Bear↔Mimic-Ljuba; mimic takes BELOW anchors nearly instantly (w36b noted fill within seconds of posting)

Takes near-decided binaries on CEX-feed latency; could take bear's BELOW bets if BTC approaches strike

Unmeasurable: watcher dead for 516 min, agent cannot observe or take new BinaryBets. Any BELOW bets posted by others during this window were inaccessible. Intent 869 (bear anchor) expired unfilled — bear has posted zero BELOW bets for ~5h+.

Fires on own-intent resolution — closes the re-post loop cleanly

New BinaryBet trigger is correct for a taker-first agent that wants to take BELOW anchors opportunistically

Adverse price move threshold (+1.5%) is calibrated and mission-aligned (halt signal)

Deal 75 near-expiry hook at 5-min lead is precise and prevents missing the settlement window

4h fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient bear-thesis agent

The watcher process itself keeps dying before the fallback fires — the script logic is sound but the runtime stability is not; this is undetectable from the scr

No script change needed — the logic is correct. The fix is platform/core: investigate why the watcher process (PID 6802 and its successor) dies silently; add process health monitoring or a supervisor that restarts dead watchers and emits a

Watcher process dies silently before fallback fires

w40 logged PID 6802 death; w41 re-armed but the new process also died before the 4h fallback at ~15:17 UTC. armed=false + pidAlive=false + no wake in 516 min confirms second process death. No error surfaced to the agent. This pattern will repeat on every restart if unsupervised.

Add a process supervisor (or OS-level watchdog) that detects pidAlive→false and either restarts the watcher or emits a board-visible alert. Separately, log the exit code/signal when a watcher process dies so the crash source is diagnosable.

No anchor resting; intent 869 expired while dead

open_intents=0 and 516 min of downtime mean bear has no active BELOW bet posted. On recovery, the agent must re-establish the exactly-one-resting invariant immediately. w41 already knew how to do this — the first wake after restart should replicate that logic.

On next manual restart, confirm w42 detects open_intents=0, posts a fresh BELOW anchor at current BTC price (BTC ~$61k, 3.5% below $63,500 strike), and arms the watcher correctly. No CLAUDE.md change needed — the existing invariant logic handles this.

Index-Maker

Summary: 12th consecutive null cycle — zero delta from runs 1–11. wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, settled_deals=not-indexed. Nothing has changed: no deployment artifact appeared, no wake fired, no token was spent, no IndexBasket intent was posted on-chain. The agent has never executed a single l

12 consecutive observation windows, zero activity of any kind. No watcher script exists (wake_script_source=null), so no wake can ever fire. This is not a crashed agent — it is an undeployed agent. The IndexBasket market cannot form a single deal until a watcher is written and deployed.

wake_script_source=null across all 12 runs; 0 wakes; $0 lifetime tokens; no on-chain IndexBasket intents observed; index-taker is in the same null state — both sides of the market are absent

N/A — no reasoning has ever executed. The agent has produced no output to evaluate.

MISSING: no watcher script exists — nothing can trigger a wake

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — zero recovery path

Designed to take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — the exact complement to index-maker's output

unknown — index-taker also shows health=

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — no watcher script exists at all, so opportunity tracking is impossible

No script exists (wake_script_source=null) — cannot evaluate cadence, fallback, or trigger logic

No fallback timer means the agent cannot self-recover even if partially initialized

Write and deploy a minimal watcher that fires on a periodic cadence (e.g. every 30–60 min), posts one LONG IndexBasket intent if none is open, and publishes the contract source to the indexer — the entire market is blocked on this single ar

No watcher script deployed

wake_script_source=null for 12 consecutive cycles. The agent process has never started. No watcher means no wakes, no intent posting, no indexer publication — the agent is functionally non-existent.

Author current.ts for index-maker: periodic wake (30–60 min cadence), check for open IndexBasket intent, post one LONG basket if absent, publish contract source to indexer. Deploy and arm the watcher.

IndexBasket market entirely dark — both sides undeployed

index-taker is also health=unknown with no observed activity. Even after index-maker is deployed and posts an intent, index-taker must be able to fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it, and take the SHORT side — that pipeline has never been validated end-to-end.

Deploy index-maker first (it publishes the indexer artifact); then deploy index-taker pointing at the indexer endpoint. Validate the full maker→indexer→taker audit pipeline with a single test intent before running live.

12 consecutive observation windows, zero activity of any kind. No watcher script exists (wake_script_source=null), so no wake can ever fire. This is not a crashed agent — it is an undeployed agent. The IndexBasket market cannot form a single deal until a watcher is written and deployed.

Index-Taker

Summary: 12th consecutive null cycle — zero delta again. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No deployment artifact exists and nothing has changed since cycle 1. Index-maker (sole counterparty) remains health=unknown with 0 IndexBasket intents ever posted on-chain, so even a live index-taker would h

Index-taker has never run a single wake, spent a single token, or produced any on-chain artifact across 12 cycles. The Step-1 focus question is answered definitively: nothing changed — no wake, no deployment artifact, no token spend, no IndexBasket take on-chain. This is not a crash; the agent was never launched.

0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null across all 12 cycles; index-maker has 0 IndexBasket intents ever settled (health=unknown), so the supply side is also absent

No reasoning to read — zero LLM calls ever made. The agent has not been deployed; there is no script to evaluate.

MISSING: no watcher deployed — nothing fires this agent

Sole structural counterparty — posts the LONG IndexBasket intents this agent is designed to take the SHORT side of

health=unknown, 0 deals, 0 IndexBasket i

none — index-maker has posted 0 IndexBasket intents on-chain; there is nothing to take even if this agent were live

wake_script_source=null — no watcher script exists at all; agent has never been deployed

Deploy the agent: write and arm a watcher that polls for open LONG IndexBasket intents from index-maker, fetches verified source from indexer, and triggers the audit-then-take loop — but only after index-maker itself is deployed and posting

Agent never deployed

No watcher script, no wakes, no token spend across 12 full observer cycles. wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. This is a missing deployment, not a crash.

Deploy the agent with a watcher script. Prerequisite: index-maker must be deployed first and confirmed posting IndexBasket intents on-chain, otherwise deploying index-taker in isolation is a no-op.

Sole counterparty (index-maker) also undeployed

Index-maker has health=unknown, 0 deals, 0 IndexBasket intents ever settled. Even a live index-taker would have nothing to audit or take. The dependency chain is broken at both ends.

Sequence the deployment: index-maker first (with verified source published to indexer), confirm at least one LONG IndexBasket intent appears on-chain, then deploy index-taker.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Concurrent session overlap created duplicates. ETH bid at -0.01bps from oracle = inversion risk. sAAPL ask expiring ~20m

sMSFT ask #1140 expiry-5min | bid/ask guards | new fillable intent

Summary: Fully recovered from the 931-min offline gap — active since before 06-10T14:45, now at w65-68, 86 settled deals, $83.36/5h. pidAlive=false is normal for this watcher: the Node watch-loop arms the deadline then exits; armed=true + nextFallbackMin=20 confirms the daemon is holding the alarm correctly. 10/12 quotes live (missing ETH ask and BTC ask — $0.25 and

LP-Maker is live and dominant (86 deals, 4 active counterparties, 10 open quotes) but recurring concurrent-session collisions (w67: full rebuild, 10 txns; w68: 4 cancelled intents) are wasting ~$2/event in gas and destabilizing the book. ETH/BTC ask absence is correctly managed (thin inventory), not a bug.

w67: 'Concurrent sessions mutually cancelled each other's work, requiring full book rebuild. 10 total txns this wake. Gas ~$2.' w68: '#1012 SSV bid #1013 sAAPL bid #1014 sMSFT bid disappeared (concurrent session cancelled)'. w65: 'Concurrent session spawned duplicates requiring...'. Counterparties a

Sound and on-mission. The agent correctly skips ETH/BTC asks at $0.25/$0.33 inventory (thin enough to be a free option risk), applies per-quote price guards, and rebuilds the book after expiry clusters. The concurrent-session churn is a platform-level race condition, not bad reasoning — the agent's response (rebuild and continue) is correct. One subtle issue: the SSV inversion guard fired at w65 m

Price inversion guard: per-quote thresholds for SSV/ETH/BTC/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT bids and asks

Expiry guard: fires 5 min before #1023 sMSFT ask (1781107440 epoch)

New fillable swap intent matching HOLD set

30-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=20 remaining)

Most frequent filler (7+ deals) — latency arb on oracle lag exactly consumes LP quotes

8+ deals — takes mispriced LP quotes as part of its mandate

health=ok, recently crashed but prior bu

5+ deals — DCA swaps land directly on LP quotes; persistent buyer

health=ok, active (though 7 USDC BTC buy

5 settled deals — external wallet, reliable taker

Delivered swaps mission — could take LP quotes, but only 1 deal lifetime

None identifiable — the agent is actively filling incoming intents and its 4 reliable counterparties are taking quotes. The watcher fires on new fillable intents, so responsive to demand. ETH/BTC ask gaps mean some arb opportunities on those legs are structurally unavailable until inventory replenishes.

Per-quote price guards (10 thresholds) fire before inversion, not after — LP cannot be picked off without a wake

Expiry guard fires 5 min early on soonest intent (#1023) — prevents silent book decay

New fillable intent scan with HOLD-set filter — responsive to taker demand

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a maker maintaining live quotes

pidAlive=false is correct: Node process exits after arming; daemon holds alarm

No guard for when ETH/BTC inventory recovers enough to post missing asks — LP stays at 10/12 silently until next fallback fires

Price guard thresholds are hardcoded to w68 quote prices — after a book rebuild (w67/w68 concurrent collision) the new quote IDs/prices are baked in, but stale

Add an inventory-recovery guard: if ETH > 0.5 or BTC > 0.005 (posting threshold), fireWake('ETH/BTC inventory recovered — post missing asks'). This closes the gap where the LP sits at 10/12 for up to 30 min after inventory replenishes.

Concurrent session collisions causing book churn and gas waste

w67: full book rebuild, 10 txns, ~$2 gas. w68: 4 intended intents cancelled mid-flight by a parallel session. w65: duplicate spawned by ETH inversion guard firing while another session was active. The watcher fires a new Node process while the previous session's on-chain txns are still pending — the

SDK: add a session-lock (e.g. advisory file lock on /agent/data/wake/session.lock) so a new wake process exits immediately if a prior session is still running. The fallback will retry; the book stays stable.

ETH/BTC ask gap — no recovery trigger

ETH inventory $0.25, BTC $0.33 — both below posting threshold. LP correctly skips asks, but has no trigger to post them once inventory replenishes (e.g. after Arb-Hunter fills a bid). Gap can persist up to 30 min.

Add inventory-threshold guard in wake-script (see suggestedChange above). Threshold values should come from the agent's own posting-floor config, not magic numbers.

Hardcoded quote prices/IDs in wake-script become stale after rebuilds

Current wake-script bakes in w68 quote IDs (#1040, #1041, etc.) and their exact prices. After a concurrent-session rebuild (w67/w68), new IDs are posted at slightly different prices — the old thresholds may be off by a few bps until the next wake rewrites the script.

Minor: wake-script should derive inversion thresholds from a stored config file (e.g. /agent/data/wake/quotes.json written each wake) rather than inline constants, so a rebuild automatically updates them.

Mimic-Ljuba

Zero ≥3pp taker-edge opportunities on board. Edge floor 3pp unmet; one deliberate move rule enforced. Self-originated po

new BinaryBet appears (crypto 24/7, stock until 20:00 UTC) OR 60 min fallback

Summary: Prior: Bear-Yosher was the sole source of BinaryBet flow; Mimic's 6 in-flight deals were safe (oracle-settled, Bear's liveness irrelevant). This cycle: Bear crashed 392 min ago and the board has gone dark for BinaryBets — wakes w55–w60 all returned 'edge floor ≥3pp unmet / board empty.' Mimic correctly identified no takeable binary flow and self-originated a

Mimic is alive and correctly waiting, but 14/16 settled deals were ↔Bear-Yosher — the sole BinaryBet source is dark. Self-originated Intent #1088 (BTC<$62k, ~18:47 UTC expiry) is the only live exposure. With Bear down and option-writer-matheus/polymarket-ljuba not posting BinaryBets, Mimic has 0 reliable counterparties until Bear restarts or a new binary poster emerges.

14 of 16 settled deals are BinaryBet↔Bear-Yosher; 1 custom↔Bear-Yosher; board has been empty of BinaryBets across wakes w55–w60 post-crash. option-writer-matheus (16 deals) posts Options not BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba (2 deals) posts small-shade binary but zero BinaryBet-template intents visible o

Sound for the wrong upstream problem. Mimic enforces the ≥3pp edge floor correctly, applies the one-deliberate-move rule appropriately, and self-originated a bet when the board was empty — disciplined execution. But self-originating a directional BTC bear bet ('w61: self-originated directional bet on BTC bear momentum') is a mild mission stretch: the mission is 'mirror recent BinaryBets and accept

Intent #1088 filled or expired (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet templateHash match on open book (newMatches scan, 60s poll)

66-min fallback (calibrated to #1088 ~18:47 UTC expiry)

Only consistent BinaryBet poster; source of 14/16 Mimic deals

CRASHED — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 3

Posts Options (different template); Mimic's watcher filters for BinaryBet templateHash only — correct exclusion given mission

Mission includes 'make a small-shade binary only' — could post BinaryBet-template intents, but none visible on book this cycle

active, 2 deals, but 0 BinaryBets posted

Takes near-decided binaries — could take Mimic's self-posted #1088 if it becomes near-decided; not a flow source for Mimic

None within mission scope. option-writer-matheus and polymarket-ljuba are not posting BinaryBet-template intents on the book. No takeable BinaryBets have appeared since Bear crashed. Intent #1088 (self-posted) is the only live binary activity.

Fires on ownIntentResolved for #1088 — correct: Mimic must act when its live exposure settles

Filters strictly by BinaryBet templateHash — no false fires on swaps or options

66-min fallback calibrated to #1088 expiry (~18:47 UTC) — tight, purposeful, not a generic poll

60s poll cadence is appropriate for binary bet flow (not sub-minute spam)

seenIds baseline pattern avoids firing on stale book state at startup

No trigger for new intents from polymarket-ljuba's binary-making leg — if ljuba posts a BinaryBet, the newMatches scan catches it, but there's no direct subscri

Add a secondary fallback condition: if Bear-Yosher's watcher comes back online (pidAlive check via a fleet-status file), fire immediately — Mimic's primary flow source restarting is the highest-value event to wake on, currently invisible to

100% counterparty concentration on Bear-Yosher

14/16 deals are ↔Bear-Yosher. When Bear is down, Mimic's copy-trading engine has nothing to copy and degrades to self-posting directional bets — a different, unvalidated strategy. Net drawdown is $36.38 (-36% of $100 starting capital) across 16 deals with only $0.59 realized PnL, suggesting the mirr

Extend Mimic's CLAUDE.md to recognize polymarket-ljuba and option-writer-matheus as secondary binary flow sources; add logic to monitor their posted intents as copy targets when Bear is offline. Also review whether the $0.59 PnL / 16 deals win-rate is acceptable or signals systematic mispricing in t

Self-posting directional bets is a mission stretch

w61 self-originated a BTC-bear directional bet (#1088) when the board was empty. The mission is 'mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets' — not 'post original bets when flow is absent.' This is Mimic acting as a maker, not a copy-trader, without validated edge.

Add an explicit fallback policy to CLAUDE.md: if board is empty for N consecutive wakes, hold capital rather than self-post, OR gate self-posting on a stricter conviction threshold (e.g. ≥10pp edge, recent on-chain price momentum confirmation).

Binary bet flow collapses when Bear-Yosher is offline

Bear is the only consistent BinaryBet poster. Its crash leaves Mimic, arb-hunter-tom, and polymarket-ljuba with no binary flow to act on. 10 live Bear↔Mimic deals are resolving from pre-crash inventory — after they settle, the binary market is structurally frozen until Bear restarts.

Restart Bear-Yosher. If that's not immediate, incentivize polymarket-ljuba to increase its 'small-shade binary' posting frequency as a bridge supply — currently 2 lifetime deals is insufficient to sustain Mimic.

Momentum-Nikita

Edge threshold unmet on both lookbacks. sNVDA is crashing (-2.71% intraday) but it's the laggard not the leader — can't

full-universe relative-gap ≥2pp (BTC·ETH·SSV·sAAPL·sNVDA·sMSFT) or 4h fallback

Summary: SSV remained persistent near-leader through w17 (13:43 UTC, 249 min ago); sNVDA cratered -2.71% intraday but as laggard, correctly filtered out. Gap threshold still unmet — agent dormant and correct. Key new observation: w16 logs reference 'both lookbacks' but the live w17 watcher script has only ONE static baseline (set at arm-time, never rolled). A 4h+-old

No on-chain action since w16 (249 min ago). SSV still the closest asset to the 2pp trigger but hasn't broken through. Agent correctly waiting — armed+pid alive, 236 min to fallback. The 2pp gap is the right signal bar, but the watcher's fixed baseline (reset only at arm-time, not rolling) means gaps measured over a 4h+ runtime are artificially suppressed: gradual intraday moves vanish into the denominator. LP-Maker is now live (11 open intents) giving a fill path if threshold fires.

1 settled deal lifetime (no detail available); SSV intent #745 failed pre-LP-recovery (illiquidity); intents #w12–w17 all no-action due to 2pp gap unmet. Market: crypto field declining together, no leadership separation across 6 wakes.

Sound on signal filtering — correctly rejected sNVDA crash at w17 (laggard not leader), correctly held off on choppy correlated declines at w12–w16. But the baseline staleness is a measurement error: if SSV drifted +1.5pp over 3h and then another +0.8pp in the last hour, the watcher sees +2.3pp vs. a 4h-old floor and fires — correct. But if the 4h move is +2.1pp and it all happened in hour 1, the

relative gap ≥2pp between any two assets (BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) vs. arm-time baseline

MISSING: rolling lookback window — baseline is fixed at watcher arm; over 4h+ runtime, recent momentum is diluted by early-session baseline drift. W16 logs 'bot

Primary fill-side for USDC→asset swaps; now live with 11 open intents. SSV intent #745 failed pre-recovery — fill path exists now if thresho

Also posts USDC→ETH/asset slices; could incidentally fill a momentum intent if directions align, but not a designed counterparty.

live, 1 open intent (4 USDC → ETH, 58 mi

None verifiable — wake logs confirm no asset cleared 2pp gap in w12–w17. Watcher is oracle-connected and measuring the live book; the metric is measurable and shows genuine threshold misses, not watcher blindness.

Live baseline captured at first poll (not hardcoded from prior wake) — correct for intraday momentum

Full 6-asset universe (BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) enables real leadership detection

Gracefully skips oracle failures rather than firing on incomplete data

60s polling cadence is appropriate — not sub-minute gaming, just momentum detection

4h fallback ensures the agent wakes even in flat markets

Static baseline (set once at arm-time, never refreshed): over a 4h+ watcher runtime, early-session moves absorb into the denominator and compress the apparent g

w16 agent log references 'both lookbacks' but w17 script has only one baseline — if the dual-lookback was intentional signal robustness, dropping it is a regres

Add a periodic baseline reset every 60 min: `if (Date.now() - baselineTs > 3600_000) { baseline = { ...current }; baselineTs = Date.now(); }` — this keeps the gap measurement anchored to recent momentum rather than 4h-old drift, without los

Baseline staleness over 4h+ watcher runtime

The watcher captures `baseline` once at arm-time and never resets it. Over the 4h fallback window, early-session price moves become baked into the denominator, making recent relative momentum look smaller. A leadership signal that develops gradually over 2h may never hit 2pp vs. the 4h-old anchor.

Reset baseline every 60 min (timestamp-gated inside the poll loop). Preserve the first-poll live-anchor behavior for the initial reading.

Dual-lookback dropped between w16 and w17

W16 agent logs 'Edge threshold unmet on both lookbacks' — implying a short + long lookback. W17 watcher script has only a single baseline. If dual-lookback was intentional (short-term confirmation + medium-term trend), dropping it reduces signal quality. If it was buggy, the log is misleading.

Confirm whether the second lookback was deliberate; if so, restore it in the watcher script as a secondary returns array with a separate rolling baseline.

SSV inventory on LP-Maker unconfirmed

SSV intent #745 expired pre-LP-recovery. LP is now live but its 11 open intents are USDC/ETH/sNVDA-oriented. If LP doesn't hold SSV inventory, a new SSV momentum intent will expire again — and the agent has no other reliable fill counterparty for SSV.

Fleet-level: LP-Maker should periodically publish its asset inventory so momentum watchers can assess fill probability before posting; alternatively, momentum-nikita should check LP's open intents for the target asset before committing.

Option-Taker-Matheus

new audited Option intent appears OR deals settle window OR 23h fallback

Summary: Took sNVDA call #118 (w25, $0.25 premium, $5 collat, ~23h) and put #119 (w26, $0.23 premium, $5 collat, ~24h) — the two options option-writer posted since last summary. Correctly resting since w26 (82 min): watcher polls every 60s and has not fired, confirming no new audited options have entered the book. $7.76 realized PnL on $0.70 lifetime LLM spend. Sole

No action in 82 min is correct — watcher's 60s poll has found zero new audited Option intents since w26. Option-writer has not posted since deal #119. $7.76 PnL on $0.70 lifetime LLM cost makes this the fleet's highest-margin agent by far.

All 4 settled deals are with 0x57F8…B0ff (option-writer-matheus). No other option writers exist in the fleet. Zero open_intents confirmed. Not the agent's fault — it took every eligible option posted.

Sound, solving the right problem. Took both available options at w25-w26 with documented rationale (cheap optionality, thin premium on volatile stock, 20x max pay). Waiting now is correct — not churn, not re-deriving.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f4b… matched, 60s poll)

nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956 = deal #118 expiry window)

23h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1260, appropriate)

Sole option writer on the fleet; taker has taken 3 of its live options and 1 settled — 100% deal overlap

health ok, 17 deals lifetime, but has no

None — watcher polls every 60s and would have fired on any new audited Option intent. No evidence any appeared and were missed.

Template-hash filter (0xb3d66f4b…) ensures only audited Option intents trigger a wake — correct trust model

Settle-window trigger lets the agent arrive before expiry without a 23h wait

60s poll cadence appropriate for option flow (option-writer posts ~1-2 per session, not per minute)

Zero-LLM, has fallback, can't fire on generic book non-empty

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to deal #118's expiry window only. After #118 settles, the settle trigger goes permanently silent — deal #119 expiry

seenIntentIds set is in-memory only — lost on crash/restart, causing the first poll post-restart to baseline rather than fire on any options that arrived during

Derive MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS dynamically from live open deals at each poll cycle (min expiry of the agent's own live custom deals - 300s) rather than hardcoding it. Eliminates the stale-after-first-settlement bug without any other changes.

Hardcoded MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS goes stale after deal #118 settles

1781194956 tracks only deal #118's window. Deal #119 expires at 1781200212 (~5h later). After #118 settles, the settle trigger never fires for #119 — taker arrives at the 23h fallback instead of 5 min before expiry.

Replace the constant with a dynamic lookup: each poll, fetch the agent's live custom deals, compute min(expiryTs) - 300 as the settle threshold.

seenIntentIds lost on restart — post-crash first poll baselines instead of firing

If the watcher crashes and restarts while a new option is in the book, the first poll re-baselines seenIntentIds and swallows the new intent. The agent only catches it on the next poll (60s later) — low severity but fixable.

Persist seenIntentIds to a local state file (or just skip the baseline guard and rely on newMatches() from the SDK) so restarts don't silently drop in-flight intents.

Single-point counterparty: zero option writers besides option-writer-matheus

All 4 deals are with one address. If option-writer-matheus stops posting (drawdown kill, crash, mission change), option-taker has no other source and burns 23h fallback cycles indefinitely.

Recruit a second option writer to the fleet, or have option-taker also scan polymarket-ljuba intents which may include option-like structures.

No action in 82 min is correct — watcher's 60s poll has found zero new audited Option intents since w26. Option-writer has not posted since deal #119. $7.76 PnL on $0.70 lifetime LLM cost makes this the fleet's highest-margin agent by far.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Portfolio rebalancing is complete and stable; drift constraints satisfied. Engine 1 paused due to lack of buyer signal a

60-min fallback (re-assess portfolio, ranking, vol, engine status)

Summary: Prior: w35 drawdown hit -19.26%, agent self-canceled 933+938, halted Engine 1, paused Engine 2; w36 tested one ETH put (951); w38 book=$89.15 (-10.85% drawdown). Since w38: Engine 2 executed one clean contrarian rotation — sold 0.052 sAAPL (+14.7 USDC, fill confirmed) and re-entered sMSFT (intent 0x1091 posted at 405/unit); w41-w42 confirmed rotation complet

Engine 1 (option writing) is still paused as of w42 — test intent 951 posted at w36 was never filled and expired; 0 open intents now. Engine 2 (contrarian swaps) is healthy: completed sAAPL→sMSFT rotation with confirmed LP fill (+14.7 USDC) and is in stable monitor mode. The single natural taker (option-taker-matheus, 4 lifetime deals) has not surfaced demand, making the Engine 1 pause operationally correct but indefinite without a buyer-signal trigger.

Engine 1: 7+ consecutive unfilled options pre-w38, ETH put 951 (strike 1631.46, 0.24 USDC premium) posted w36 unfilled/expired, 0 open options at w42. Only named taker is option-taker-matheus (4 settled deals lifetime — extremely thin). Engine 2 functions: swap settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus confirmed,

Sound and correctly self-limiting. The agent correctly diagnosed that re-posting options into a buyer-absent market was burning gas for zero signal (7+ misfires), paused Engine 1, and shifted focus to the contrarian rotation — a disciplined pivot. The sAAPL→sMSFT rotation (w39-w40) was mission-correct: sAAPL rank improved (−1.31% → +0.27%), sMSFT worsened, swap executed cleanly. Monitor mode in w4

60-min fallback timer (only active trigger)

MISSING: vol-spike trigger — comment in current.ts names 'vol spike' as a resume signal but script implements no vol monitor

MISSING: ranking-change trigger — comment names 'ranking change' as a wake signal but script is pure fallback-only

Only agent on the roster explicitly buying ETH/BTC options; 4 settled deals lifetime — very sparse demand signal

Swap counterparty for Engine 2 rotations; confirmed fill on sAAPL intent in w39-w40

Prices options against Polymarket distribution and buys mispriced ones — potential Engine 1 buyer if strike/premium align

none — Engine 2 executed the correct rotation; Engine 1 correctly withheld posts given zero buyer demand. No resting option intents on the book that this agent could have taken (its mission is to write, not buy).

60-min fallback cadence is appropriate for a patient portfolio agent in stable monitor mode

Zero-LLM, clean structure, correct PID write

Fallback label accurately describes re-assessment scope

Script promises vol-spike and ranking-change triggers in its comment but implements neither — these would be the most valuable resume signals for Engine 1

No check on option-taker-matheus book activity that would signal buyer has re-entered — Engine 1 stays dark indefinitely without this

60-min poll inside the loop is unnecessarily coarse given the fallback is also 60 min — poll could be 5-min without changing cadence

Add a Pyth vol-fetch loop: if realized vol on ETH or BTC crosses back above the threshold that previously justified option writing, fire immediately rather than waiting up to 60 min — this is the single gate between Engine 1's pause and its

Engine 1 resume condition is purely time-based, not signal-based

The wake script comment lists 'vol spike' and 'ranking change' as resume signals but implements only a 60-min fallback. Engine 1 has been paused since w37 (~5h) with no automated trigger to unblock it when market conditions improve. It will only re-test options every 60 min at most, meaning favorabl

Add a vol check in the watcher loop: fetch Pyth ETH/BTC 24h return; if |return| > threshold (e.g. 2%), fireWake('vol spike — Engine 1 re-assess') immediately. This makes Engine 1 responsive to the market signal it's actually waiting for.

Current drawdown not logged in w39-w42 wakes

Last explicit drawdown reading is $89.15 / -10.85% at w38. Post-rotation (sAAPL +14.7 USDC received, sMSFT buy pending at w40), the true current drawdown is unobservable from wake logs. Observer cannot confirm recovery progress without agent logging the book value each wake.

Log book_usd and drawdown_pct at the top of each wake state record so the observer can track kill-limit proximity without inferring from partial fills.

accept-swap tool leg-order bug (w40)

W40 logs: 'tool had leg-order issue (checking wrong asset approval)' — agent had to re-post sMSFT intent rather than accepting a resting one. This is an SDK-level tool bug affecting any agent using accept-swap.

Audit accept-swap tool's asset-approval check order; ensure it validates the give-asset approval against the intent's give-leg, not a hardcoded or stale reference.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL position well-anchored within weekly horizon, no exit triggers hit. No new dir

Summary: Still holding 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 entry (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / Jun12 20:00 UTC). Watcher has been armed and polling every 60s for 354 min since w26 without firing — strong evidence price remains in the $277–$304 band; neither trigger has been crossed. No new binary/option intents have appeared on the book (tertiary trigger also silent). Bear-

Price has not moved through either trigger in 354 min — the armed watcher's 60s poll would have fired if it had. Primary Options/BinaryBet mission remains fully dormant: no mispriced intents have appeared (watcher's tertiary trigger silent), and bear-yosher's 512 min crash eliminates the primary BinaryBet supply side. The agent is correctly patient; this is a market-structure problem, not an agent problem.

bear-yosher (primary BinaryBet originator) crashed 512 min ago — no new BinaryBet intents posted; tertiary watcher trigger (new binary/option intents) has not fired since w26; 0 open intents, 2 lifetime settled deals, no new deal activity

Sound and solving the right problem. Wake logs show correct convergence tracking (edge eroded from 3.1% to 1.5% across wakes — expected behavior acknowledged, not confused with a problem). Preemptive sAAPL allowance approval at w26 (tx 0xf145…) was operationally correct foresight. No churn: 18 repeat wakes, but each is a legitimate price/intent check, not re-posting the same failed move.

new binary/option/unknown intent appears on book

fallback: Jun11 20:00 UTC (1781208000) — 24h before expiry to assess maker candidates

primary BinaryBet originator — polymarket-ljuba's core supply side for valuation opportunities

crashed 512 min, no new bets originating

writes Options (ETH/BTC + stock portfolio) that polymarket-ljuba is designed to value and take

ok, 17 deals — active and potentially po

posts BinaryBets by mirroring others; could create takeable intents if bear-yosher ever recovers

taker of near-decided binaries, not a maker; no supply-side contribution for polymarket-ljuba

Unmeasurable for binary/option intents: option-writer-matheus (ok, 17 deals) is the only active Option writer — unclear if any of its open quotes were within polymarket-ljuba's valuation threshold since w26. The watcher's tertiary trigger monitors the book and did not fire, suggesting no new intents appeared; however, the watcher filters by kind==='unknown'||'binary'||'option' and could theoretica

Three-layer trigger stack correctly matches the two active mission states: (1) sAAPL position management (stop/forward/horizon), (2) primary mission responsiven

Fallback at Jun11 20:00 UTC (24h before expiry) is intentional and thoughtful — provides a human-assessment window before the swap deadline

60s cadence appropriate for price-trigger sensitivity without being wasteful

Zero-LLM, reads state.json for horizonTs with hardcoded fallback (1781294400) — correct defensive pattern

Reads horizonTs from state.json at runtime rather than hardcoding — correctly picks up the Jun12 correction made at w25

kind === 'unknown' filter is overly broad — 'unknown' intents could be swap or index types irrelevant to this mission, causing false-positive wakes

No filter by counterparty address — a near-decided option-writer-matheus intent would look identical to a noise intent to this watcher

Narrow the new-intent filter from kind==='unknown'||'binary'||'option' to kind==='binary'||kind==='option' only, removing 'unknown'; add a secondary check that the intent's maker is a known agent address (option-writer-matheus, bear-yosher,

Primary BinaryBet supply side (bear-yosher) dark 512 min

polymarket-ljuba's core value-add — pricing BinaryBets against Polymarket's distribution — requires bear-yosher or mimic-ljuba to post new bets. Bear-yosher has been crashed 512 min; mimic-ljuba mirrors bear-yosher's output so is also supply-constrained. Primary mission is structurally frozen until

Revive bear-yosher (fleet action). Until then, polymarket-ljuba should redirect attention to option-writer-matheus's open Option quotes, which are active and priceable against Polymarket's implied vol.

No active scanning of option-writer-matheus's open Option quotes

option-writer-matheus (17 deals, ok health) is the only active counterparty producing priceable Options — but polymarket-ljuba's watcher only wakes on *new* intents, not existing open ones. If option-writer-matheus has live open Option quotes that are mispriced vs Polymarket, they won't trigger a wa

Add a watcher check: on each poll, scan open intents for kind==='option' that were already known (in lastWakeBets) but haven't been evaluated — fire if any survive more than N minutes without being taken and their Polymarket-implied edge exceeds threshold.

Rebalancer-Lior

ETH at target. BTC largest remaining gap at -7.0pp. 4 USDC committed to BTC DCA at +1.47% premium to signal to LP/retail

#1162 BTC DCA resolves (~20:58 UTC) or LP posts BTC sell, fallback 22:00 UTC

Summary: Root-cause misdiagnosis persists through w40: agent continues iterating on oracle-premium tolerance (w39 posted BTC #1105 at +1.56%, w40 posted 4 USDC ETH #1156 expires ~20:53 UTC) while the actual blocker is lot-size — LP's 12 USDC minimum fill floor rejects every sub-12 USDC lot regardless of premium. No wake since last summary shows awareness of the floor

7+ consecutive sub-12 USDC lots have failed; w40's 4 USDC ETH #1156 is the latest. The agent diagnoses LP non-fill as an oracle-premium problem (w39: 'LP charges 0.43-1.56%') and escalates premium tolerance — but LP's floor is a quantity constraint, not a price constraint. A 4 USDC lot at any premium will be rejected. One line fixes this: raise DCA slice to ≥12 USDC.

#1053 (7 USDC BTC, expired), #1089 (4 USDC ETH, expired), #1105 (BTC +1.56% premium, amount unconfirmed small), #1156 (4 USDC ETH, now expired per open_intents=0) — all below LP's 12 USDC floor; 13 historical settled deals with LP-Maker-Matheus prove LP fills are available when lot size is adequate

Unsound — solving the wrong variable. W39 explicitly frames the fix as 'pivot from exact-oracle posts to premium-tolerant: LP charges 0.43-1.56%'. That model is wrong: LP's rejection is a quantity floor (≥12 USDC), not a price spread. Each wake spent escalating premium tolerance has zero path to a fill. This is the canonical disciplined-loop-wrong-problem failure — the reasoning looks structured b

own intent #1156 resolved (filled or expired) — ownIntentResolved poll every 60s

5/5 of last settled deals; sole reliable swap maker; 93 deals, 11 open quotes, health ok — but enforces ≥12 USDC fill floor that rejects eve

taker not a maker; one historical deal was opportunistic, not a repeatable swap source

none identifiable — LP is the only swap maker on the book; no other agent provides swap liquidity. The agent is not missing open opportunities; it is generating unfillable intents.

watches own intent (#1156) for resolution — correct trigger for a one-intent-at-a-time DCA mission

60s poll cadence appropriate for intent expiry window

explicit UTC fallback (21:30) prevents orphaned watcher if intent silently expires

zero-LLM, deterministic, can't fire on book-non-empty

watcher correctly fires on resolution but next wake will re-post another sub-12 USDC lot with same wrong reasoning — the script is sound, the agent logic it tri

No watcher change needed — current.ts is correct for the mission. The fix is in the agent's CLAUDE.md: set minimum DCA slice ≥ 12 USDC to clear LP's fill floor, and remove oracle-premium escalation logic as a fill-failure remedy.

DCA lot size structurally below LP's 12 USDC minimum fill floor

Every intent since at least w37 is sub-12 USDC (#1053: 7 USDC, #1089: 4 USDC, #1156: 4 USDC). LP-Maker-Matheus has a ≥12 USDC fill floor; these lots are rejected before oracle price is even evaluated. Agent's 'patient slice' sizing is the direct cause of 0 recent fills despite LP being available.

Edit CLAUDE.md to enforce minimum DCA slice ≥ 12 USDC. The 13 historical settled deals prove LP fills when lot size is adequate.

Oracle-premium tolerance is the wrong diagnostic — burning wakes on irrelevant tuning

W39 frames the problem as LP's 0.43-1.56% spread and posts BTC at +1.56% as the fix. This is an incorrect model: LP's floor is quantity-based, not price-based. Each iteration (now 7+ wakes) compounds the misdiagnosis and consumes tokens ($1.09 last wake alone) with zero probability of a fill.

Correct root-cause reasoning in CLAUDE.md: LP fill failures on sub-12 USDC lots are quantity rejections, not oracle-premium rejections. Remove premium-escalation as a fill-failure remedy.

Stacker-Massimo

Bid is tracking oracle correctly (posted at oracle×0.99 when oracle=$207.92; oracle unchanged). No sweepable sell-side.

Summary: Pre-open hold continues correctly. Watcher countdown has advanced from nextFallbackMin=189 (last run) to 129 now — consistent with ~60 min elapsed, no drift. Still armed (pidAlive=true) for epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC, ~99 min away from ~11:51 UTC now). Portfolio unchanged: 0.004928 sNVDA ($1.02), 9.00 USDC free. Both settled deals were with LP-Maker-Matheus

Watcher is correctly armed to fire at 13:30 UTC equity open (epoch 1781098200, fallback at 14:00 UTC). LP-Maker-Matheus is live with sNVDA quotes (12 USDC lot posted), and Stacker has 2 confirmed fills with LP-Maker proving the sub-lot fill path works. 9.00 USDC remains to deploy at 0.50 USDC/wake (~18 more wakes to exhaust budget).

Pre-market window; CLAUDE.md enforces 09:30–16:00 ET only. No fills possible now by design. 2 settled deals both with LP-Maker-Matheus confirm the path clears at open.

Sound and solving the right problem. w20 correctly identified 1.01% oracle drift and rotated intent 752→753 at refreshed price (oracle×0.99). w21–w26 held cleanly on market-hours logic with no redundant on-chain action. No churn — 22 repeat wakes are pre-open holds, not re-deriving the same bad move.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) via 30-second poll loop

fallback at 14:00 UTC (open + 30 min) if poll misses

Both settled deals were LP-Maker fills; LP has live sNVDA quote (12 USDC lot) and is confirmed able to fill Stacker's 0.50 USDC slices

none — pre-market, trading correctly blocked by CLAUDE.md market-hours rule; LP-Maker's sNVDA quote is live but Stacker cannot and should not act before 13:30 UTC

Fires exactly at epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) — the only moment Stacker is allowed to act

30-second poll cadence is appropriate: lightweight, zero-LLM, no book dependency

Fallback at open+30 min (14:00 UTC) is a sensible safety net; nextFallbackMin=129 confirms it resolves to ~14:00 UTC from current ~11:51 UTC

No book-watching needed for a pure DCA mission — correctly omitted

fallbackMs when already past open evaluates to 30 min from invocation time, which is correct but implicit — a comment would prevent future confusion

No functional change needed; the script is mission-fit. Optional: add inline comment explaining the post-open fallbackMs edge case for maintainability.

LP lot-size headroom shrinks as sNVDA price rises

LP posts 12 USDC lots; Stacker posts 0.50 USDC. Confirmed fills show LP accepts sub-lot today, but if LP tightens minimums or oracle price moves, 0.50 USDC may become un-fillable. Currently 9.00 USDC / 18 wakes remaining.

Monitor: if next fill at 13:30 fails despite LP live, check whether LP minimum crossed 0.50 USDC threshold and adjust slice size in CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

Market-hours rule: stocks cannot trade post-close. sNVDA is the only signal. No crypto dislocations. Best move is wait.

Summary: Three-wake DCA sequence confirmed: w21 (−1.75%, 18 USDC→0x437), w22 (−1.92%, 18 USDC→0x448), w23 (−2.18%, 20 USDC→0x045e). 0x448 resolved (watcher fired and re-armed on 0x045e) — Step-1's open-book 20 USDC intent IS w23, not a stale w22. Dislocation has deepened each wake; 56 USDC committed across 3 slices, ~24.2 USDC remaining — nearly budget-deployed. All

w23 confirmed: sNVDA dislocation deepened to −2.18% (from −1.75% / −1.92% prior wakes), triggering a 3rd DCA slice (20 USDC → 0.0994 sNVDA at $201.14). 0x448 resolved before w23 fired. With ~24.2 USDC left after 56 USDC deployed, the agent is near budget exhaustion — if 0x045e fills (~20 USDC), only ~4 USDC remains, insufficient for a full next slice.

Not a failure — agent is executing correctly. Structural note: 5/5 settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; zero diversification of counterparty. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote, no fallback taker exists. Current intent 0x045e (20 USDC) is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor — fillable now.

Sound and on-mission. The escalating commitment pattern (18→18→20 USDC as dislocation deepened −1.75%→−1.92%→−2.18%) is disciplined DCA, not churn. The 5 idle wakes (w15–w20) correctly held fire: sNVDA sell-strength blocked by market hours and zero position, no buy-dip above 1.5% threshold — patience was right, not a failure. Sizing at 18–20% of pool per slice is proportionate.

ownIntentResolved: fires when 0x045e fills or expires

2h fallback (120 min, ~74 min remaining)

All 5 settled deals; 11 open quotes; 20 USDC intent is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor

Could theoretically take sNVDA → USDC side, but lot-size bug (4 USDC intents) means it's currently misfiring; not a reliable fill source

None. w15–w20 non-trades were correct: sNVDA sell-strength required holding sNVDA (zero position), and no buy-dip exceeded 1.5% threshold. w21 correctly identified the first actionable signal.

Fires on ownIntentResolved — exact event the agent needs (fill or expiry before re-evaluating)

2h fallback appropriate for a patient DCA agent averaging 153-min gaps

Zero-LLM; intent address hardcoded cleanly; PID written at startup

No early-wake on significant price move — if sNVDA dislocation reverses sharply (e.g. +1% bounce), agent holds the 0x045e intent until expiry rather than cancel

Add a price-check in the watch loop: if dislocation shrinks below 0.5% (dip fading), fireWake early so the agent can re-evaluate whether to let 0x045e expire rather than fill into a recovering asset.

Near budget exhaustion — no slice logic for <full-size remainder

After 56 USDC deployed (18+18+20), ~24.2 USDC remains. If 0x045e fills, ~4.2 USDC left — below the 18-20 USDC slice floor. Agent may stall at next wake with no actionable path despite continued dislocation.

Add minimum-remainder check: if remaining USDC < 10, skip further DCA slices and log 'budget nearly exhausted'; or allow a partial final slice down to 10 USDC floor.

Single counterparty concentration

5/5 settled deals vs LP-Maker-Matheus only. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote (as noted in Step-1: LP missing ETH ask and BTC ask at times), 0x045e would expire unfilled with no alternative taker.

Low priority given LP's current health (93 deals, 11 quotes), but worth noting for resilience — no agent fix needed now, monitor LP sNVDA quote coverage.

Vulture-Andrew

Process crash (armed=false/pidAlive=false) is the immediate blocker. Upstream: all 38 settled deals are swaps ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus only — LP is a neutral maker and will not take vulture's bait sells (confirmed in prior summary and consistent with zero bait-sell fills across 38 deals). Bait sells 874/8

new takeable edge ≥1% (excluding pre-seeded honeypots 779, 836, 869)

~5 min before soonest intent expiry (pre-expiry TTL guard)

quote erosion/undercut detected by check-my-quotes (cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: process-level restart / self-heal on crash — watcher exited without rearming

Sole proven counterparty — 38/38 settled deals are swaps ↔ LP; rebalance buys fill reliably when LP is live. Will NOT take vulture's bait se

Could take sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA bait sells if momentum signal aligns, but only 1 settled deal — extremely thin taker activity.

Could take bait sells on dislocation fades; 4 settled deals — marginally more active than momentum, but not proven on vulture's book.

Could take near-decided binary intents; also crashed (36 min, armed=false/pidAlive=false).

Bear is a taker of binaries, not a taker of swap bait sells; also crashed 452 min.

Four distinct fire conditions all mission-relevant: new edge, pre-expiry guard, quote erosion, 2h fallback — matches vulture's reactive/opportunistic profile

30s poll is zero-LLM and cheap; honeypot pre-seeding (779, 836, 869) prevents re-firing on known traps

Pre-expiry trigger (~5 min before soonest expiry) prevents silent TTL drain

check-my-quotes integration catches erosion/undercut without an agent wake

No self-restart / process watchdog — watcher exited at 14:36 with no rearming; fallbackMs=2h is only useful if the process survives that long

30s poll + cancelCmds check fires wakes on minor quote drift (56% repeat rate); a 60–90s poll with a wider erosion threshold would halve token burn with negligi

No process supervisor — watcher crash is permanent

armed=false/pidAlive=false for 255 min. The 2h fallback only works if the Node process survives; on abnormal exit, there is no restart mechanism. This same failure pattern is simultaneous across arb-hunter-tom and bear-yosher — three agents down at once points to a shared platform gap, not agent-spe

Add a systemd unit or SDK-level supervisor that auto-restarts any watcher process on exit with exponential backoff. All three crashed agents would self-recover.

Bait sells structurally starved — no directional takers

0/38 settled deals are bait-sell fills. LP-Maker (sole active counterparty) is a neutral maker and will not take directional bait sells. momentum-nikita (1 deal) and swing-nikita (4 deals) are the only viable takers and are both thin. Bait-sell edge is being priced correctly but into a vacuum.

Once restarted, bias the bait book toward swaps LP-Maker will fill (rebalance buys near oracle mid) rather than directional sells — these have a proven fill rate. Revisit bait sell sizing/premium only when momentum/swing become more active.

High quote-churn token burn (56% repeat wakes)

40/71 wakes are repeat quote-hygiene wakes driven by minor erosion triggers. At $5.97/5h (4.2% of pool), burn rate exceeds deal edge on bait sells. The 30s poll + check-my-quotes fires on drift that often self-corrects.

Widen the cancel threshold slightly (e.g. fire only when erosion > 0.3% below target, not any cancelCmd) and increase poll to 60s to reduce churn wakes by ~30% without materially affecting fill latency.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

SWAP HUB LIVE, BINARY DARK

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Rebalancer-Lior, Option-Writer-Matheus}

ACTIVE — LP at 93 deals (+7), 11 open quotes; Vulture-Andrew crashed post-w67 wi

DARK — Bear-Yosher crashed 516 min (armed=false/pidAlive=false); zero new origin

THIN BUT CLEARING — 4 settled; Engine 1 halted post-drawdown; Engine 2 running c

ABSENT — both agents undeployed across all 12 cycles; zero on-chain IndexBasket

Bear-Yosher crashed 516 min ago (PID 6802 gone at w40; w41 re-arm also died — armed=false/pidAlive=false)

Entire binary market frozen: Mimic-Ljuba counterparty-starved (wakes w55–w60 'board empty'), Arb-Hunter-Tom binary surfa

0 BinaryBet intents on open book; mimic 14/16 lifetime deals originated by Bear-Yosher; arb-hunter logged 'binary surface dry' every wake since Bear crash; polymarket-ljuba trigger has not fired since

LP-Maker-Matheus concurrent session collisions (w65, w67, w68)

ETH ask and BTC ask gaps persist in LP book → Arb-Hunter-Tom loses give-USDC swap edges when those quotes drop; all 5 ta

w67: 'Concurrent sessions mutually cancelled each other's work, full book rebuild, 10 txns, ~$2 gas'; w68: '#1012 SSV bid #1013 sAAPL bid #1014 sMSFT bid disappeared (concurrent session cancelled)'; o

Rebalancer-Lior iterating oracle-premium tolerance instead of lot size across 7+ wakes

Every rebalance intent rejected by LP's 12 USDC minimum fill floor regardless of premium; capital perpetually locked in

#1053 (7 USDC BTC, expired), #1089 (4 USDC ETH, expired), #1105 (BTC +1.56% premium, small lot), #1156 (4 USDC ETH, open now expiring soon) — all below LP floor; 13 prior settled deals with LP prove f

Vulture-Andrew crashed post-w67 (armed=false/pidAlive=false, 313+ min dark) with fresh bait suite live

Bait suite (987 sAAPL-sell 0.99%, 988 sAAPL-buy 1.01%, 1001 sNVDA, 948 BTC-sell, 949 ETH-sell) expires unmonitored; any

38 lifetime vulture deals all ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; zero bait-sell fills in that history; fresh suite posted w67/14:36; crash confirmed post-w67

Stacker-Massimo crashed at or after epoch 1781098200 boundary (was armed+pidAlive=true last run at nextFallbackMin=129;

Market-open accumulation window missed; portfolio frozen at 0.004928 sNVDA + 9.00 USDC uninvested; no stacking executed

Orient confirms 362-min dark; last run showed 129 min to epoch trigger; current watcher state shows process death at or after epoch boundary — no partial execution visible

Index-maker and index-taker both undeployed (wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 tokens) across all 12 cycles

IndexBasket market segment structurally absent — no supply-side intents ever posted, no demand-side taker ever active; e

Both agents: armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, zero on-chain IndexBasket intents across cycles 1–12

Bear-Yosher 516-min crash freezes binary market — 3 downstream agents blocked

Bear-Yosher is the sole BinaryBet originator. Its confirmed crash (armed=false/pidAlive=false; PID 6802 died at w40; w41 re-arm also failed) has frozen all new binary origination for 516 min. Three agents are directly blocked: Mimic-Ljuba counterparty-starved (wakes w55–w60 all 'board empty'); Arb-Hunter-Tom binary surface dry for 8 consecutive wakes (w166–w173); Polymarket-Ljuba tertiary trigger silent for 354+ min since w26.

armed=false/pidAlive=false confirmed; 0 BinaryBet intents on open book; mimic 14/16 lifetime deals were Bear-originated; arb-hunter 0 binary opportunities across w166–w173

Restart bear-yosher immediately — single highest-leverage move: restores binary origination and unblocks mimic-ljuba, arb-hunter-tom binary surface, and polymarket-ljuba tertiary trigger simultaneously

Three simultaneous process crashes — fleet stability concern

Bear-Yosher (516 min), Stacker-Massimo (362 min, newly crashed at epoch boundary), and Vulture-Andrew (313 min, crashed post-w67 with fresh bait suite live) are all dead simultaneously. Three independent process deaths in one cycle suggests a possible shared host-level cause (OOM, signal handling, epoch-boundary edge case) beyond individual agent bugs.

bear-yosher armed=false/pidAlive=false; stacker-massimo armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null (was armed+pidAlive=true last run); vulture-andrew armed=false/pidAlive=false — all three confirmed crashed, not resting

Restart all three; check host-level logs around the stacker-massimo epoch boundary (1781098200) for shared signal or OOM event that could explain concurrent deaths

Rebalancer-Lior lot-size misdiagnosis — 7+ iterations, no path to fill at current strategy

Agent continues adjusting oracle-premium tolerance (w39: BTC +1.56%, w40: 4 USDC ETH #1156 now in open book with 57 min left) while the actual blocker is lot size: LP's 12 USDC minimum fill floor rejects every sub-12 USDC intent regardless of premium. Intent #1156 (4 USDC) will also expire unfilled. 13 historical settled deals with LP confirm the counterparty is viable when lot ≥12 USDC.

#1053 (7 USDC BTC), #1089 (4 USDC ETH), #1105 (small BTC), #1156 (4 USDC ETH, live) — all below LP's 12 USDC floor; 13 prior fills at adequate lot sizes

Update rebalancer-lior CLAUDE.md to enforce minimum lot ≥12 USDC per intent; stop all oracle-premium iteration until lot size is corrected — this is the only blocker

LP-Maker-Matheus concurrent session collisions — quote gaps and gas waste

Wakes w65, w67, w68 document concurrent sessions mutually cancelling work and requiring full book rebuilds at ~$2 gas each. ETH ask and BTC ask currently absent from LP's 11-quote book. These gaps intermittently block arb-hunter-tom's swap surface and leave all taker agents with no fallback during rebuild windows.

w67: 'full book rebuild, 10 txns, ~$2 gas'; w68: '#1012 #1013 #1014 disappeared'; open book missing ETH ask and BTC ask; 5 taker agents route exclusively through LP

Add watcher-level session lock in lp-maker-matheus to prevent concurrent wake spawning — recovers ~$2 gas per collision and restores stable ETH/BTC ask coverage

Vulture-Andrew bait strategy has no viable counterparty — structural, not crash-driven

Even before the current crash, vulture's bait-sell fills were zero across all 38 lifetime deals (all ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus as neutral maker, who will not take bait sells). Restarting the process restores monitoring but does not fix the strategy gap — vulture needs a counterparty that takes mispriced sells, which LP structurally won't do.

38 lifetime deals all ↔ LP; zero bait-sell fills in deal history; fresh suite (987 sAAPL-sell, 988 sAAPL-buy, 1001 sNVDA, 948 BTC-sell, 949 ETH-sell) posted w67 — same strategy, same structural gap

Restart process first; then revise vulture's CLAUDE.md mission to identify a counterparty that takes mispriced sells (e.g., an arb taker) rather than relying on LP as the fill counterparty

IndexBasket market absent across 12 cycles — both sides never deployed

Index-maker and index-taker have never executed a single line of code: wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens across all 12 observer cycles. The entire IndexBasket market class is structurally absent from the fleet.

Both agents: wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 tokens, armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null — cycles 1 through 12

Deploy index-maker first (supply side); index-taker has no intents to take until index-maker posts. Prioritize after resolving the 3 active process crashes.

Restart bear-yosher first — highest leverage: restores BinaryBet origination and immediately unblocks mimic-ljuba, arb-hunter-tom binary surface, and polymarket-ljuba tertiary trigger in one move

Restart stacker-massimo and vulture-andrew; inspect host-level logs around epoch 1781098200 for shared OOM or signal event explaining 3 simultaneous process deaths (bear-yosher 516 min, stacker-massimo 362 min, vulture-andrew 313 min)

Fix rebalancer-lior: enforce minimum lot ≥12 USDC in CLAUDE.md — stop oracle-premium iteration entirely until lot size is corrected; the 4 USDC ETH intent #1156 in open book will expire unfilled

Fix lp-maker-matheus concurrent session spawn: add watcher-level lock to prevent duplicate wake processes — stops ~$2/collision gas waste and restores stable ETH and BTC ask coverage

Deploy index-maker (supply side first) to open the IndexBasket market segment — 12 cycles of full absence with a waiting taker counterparty represents the fleet's largest untapped market gap

Swap surface more active than last run — 5 new settled deals (2 arb-hunter-tom + 3 vulture-andrew vs LP) — but stacker-massimo is newly crashed (was armed/pidAlive=true last run targeting epoch 1781098200 ≈ 13:30 UTC, now armed=false/pidAlive=false/362-min dark); bear-yosher remains crashed at 512 m

Bear-Yosher 512 min crashed — zero new BinaryBet origination; 9 live Bear↔Mimic deals resolving via oracle (no agent action needed, but no new bets can form)

Stacker-Massimo newly crashed: was armed+pidAlive=true last run awaiting epoch 1781098200, now 362-min dark — crash source at/after epoch boundary unknown

Rebalancer-Lior lot-size bug persists: 4 USDC BTC intent in open book (2 min left), below LP's 12 USDC minimum fill floor — 7th+ consecutive misfire iteration

Vulture-Andrew crashed 313 min with full bait suite freshly replaced at w67 (14:36); 3 deals settled pre-crash from prior suite

LP-Maker-Matheus at 93 deals (+7 since prior 86), 11 open quotes — prior noted missing ETH ask and BTC ask; verify current coverage

Binary surface has 9 Bear↔Mimic live deals in flight — did any represent a takeable binary bet for arb-hunter since w166, and on the swap surface are LP oracle gaps now wide enough for arb-hunter to take (given 2 swap deals settled this cyc

Still crashed at 512 min (armed=false, pidAlive=false) — what was the last logged crash reason (w40 referenced PID 6802), and are the 9 live Bear↔Mimic BinaryBets resolving correctly via oracle without agent intervention?

12th consecutive null cycle — has anything changed: any deployment artifact, any wake, any token spend, any IndexBasket intent on-chain?

12th consecutive null cycle — has anything changed: any deployment artifact, any wake, any token spend, any IndexBasket take on-chain?

93 deals now (+7 from 86 prior) — which pairs filled in this window, and are the ETH ask and BTC ask quotes still missing from the 11 open intents (prior noted these as $0.25/$0.28 coverage gaps)?

9 Bear↔Mimic BinaryBets show as 'live' — are these pre-crash bets resolving via oracle (no action needed), and with binary origination dark, what is mimic doing now: self-originating, waiting, or idle?

Armed 119 min fallback, last wake 366 min ago — has SSV or any asset crossed the momentum threshold since w17 (13:43 UTC), or is the single static baseline (frozen at arm-time) still blocking a signal that a rolled baseline would catch?

Took deals #118 (sNVDA call) and #119 (sNVDA put) at w25 — has option-writer posted any new options since w25, and has option-taker evaluated or acted on anything in the ~78 min since its last wake?

Drawdown recovered from -19.26% (w35) to -10.85% (w38) — what is the current drawdown reading, has Engine 1 resumed posting, and are there any open options on the book now?

Holding 0.085722 sAAPL since w26 (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / Jun 12 20:00 UTC) — has sAAPL price moved meaningfully toward either trigger in the 350 min since last wake, and is the primary Options/BinaryBet mission still fully dormant

4 USDC BTC intent visible in open book (2 min left, below LP's 12 USDC floor) — has the agent's reasoning in its latest wake diagnosed the lot-size root cause, or is it still iterating on oracle premium tolerance as the fix?

Was armed+pidAlive=true last run waiting for epoch 1781098200 (≈ 13:30 UTC); now armed=false/pidAlive=false/362-min dark — did the epoch-fire wake trigger and then crash, or did the watcher die before firing, and what is the current portfol

Open book shows 20 USDC → 0.0994 sNVDA (15 min left) vs prior w22's 18 USDC → 0.089 sNVDA — is this a new w23 intent confirming continued DCA, has the prior 18 USDC slice been filled by LP, and has sNVDA dislocation deepened further beyond

Crashed 313 min after posting a fresh bait suite at w67 (14:36) — 3 deals settled this cycle (pre-crash from prior suite): were these the LP rebalance-buy fills on the new suite, and what was the logged crash trigger at/after w67?

Restart bear-yosher: 512 min crashed, BinaryBet origination pipeline dead, 9 live deals resolving without it but no new bets can form

Diagnose stacker-massimo: newly crashed at/after epoch 1781098200 boundary — check last wake log, then restart

Fix rebalancer-lior CLAUDE.md: enforce minimum swap size ≥12 USDC to meet LP-Maker-Matheus floor; the oracle-premium tuning is solving the wrong problem

Restart vulture-andrew: 313 min crashed, bait suite stale, was the fleet's second most active deal-maker (38 deals)

Fix momentum-nikita watcher: replace single arm-time static baseline with a rolled lookback so a 4h+-old snapshot doesn't suppress real signals