account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

Summary: Agent correctly identified bets #32/#89 as primary targets and positioned USDC ($91.76 free) by w54 (15:04). However, watcher missed the entire take window: no wake between w54 (15:04) and w56 (15:29)—a 25-minute gap spanning the critical 15:09–15:39 window. Root cause is structural: watcher script monitors future bet #414 + new intents >591 with 2h fallback

Agent reasoning is sound (w52–w54 correctly prioritized bets #32/#89 and held USDC), but watcher design failure caused 25-min blackout during the take window. Bets #32/#89 expired unfilled (reported Step-1 as structural binary market mismatch, but the agent never got the chance to take them). Successor monitoring (bet #414) activates too late—watcher is watching the wrong timeline.

Bets #32/#89 deeply ITM (w49: BTC 2.27% below strike #32, ETH 1.50% below strike #89). Agent positioned for take window ~15:09–15:39 by w54 (15:04). Watcher script monitors: (1) new intent >591, (2) bet #414 in 30-min window + BTC CEX >$63.32k, (3) 2h fallback. No trigger for primary bets. Gap w54→w

Sound and disciplined. w52–w54 correctly identify: (w52) bets approaching window, (w53) entry in 16min, (w54) 'opening imminently (5-6min), optimal move is hold USDC.' w51 shows agent *can* execute (took swap #541, +52bps, deal settled). Problem is NOT logic—it's that watcher has no active trigger for the identified primary targets; it wakes on unrelated events (new intents, future bet #414) after

Bet #414 in 30-min take window with CEX taker-in-money (BTC >$63.32k)

MISSING: active monitor for near-term expiring primary bets (#32/#89). The agent identified them as primary in w54, but watcher had zero trigger to fire during

Posted bets #32/#89 (#414 too). Proven taker-compatible (arb-hunter-tom took swap from Vulture-Andrew in settled deal).

Also a binary taker, but mission is directional (crypto-down) not latency arb. Could post mispriced bets for arb-hunter-tom to take, but not

Values and buys mispriced binaries; could post/take. But focuses on cross-market pricing, not latency arb.

Bets #32/#89 expired unfilled after 24+ hours (Step-1 report). Agent had USDC positioned and correctly identified the take window (w52–w54), but watcher design prevented any wake during 15:09–15:39. If watcher had monitored primary bets for take-window entry, agent could have taken one or both.

Correctly monitors new intents >highWater to catch fresh binary posts

Feed-guard (MAX_DIV_BPS=1000) prevents oracle-mismatch losses

2h fallback ensures eventual wake (prevents permanent hang)

Zero active trigger for near-expiring primary bets (#32/#89). Script monitors future bet #414 instead—wrong timeline.

2-hour fallback is 4× too long. Binary take-windows are ~30 min; fallback causes 25+ min blackouts.

No state tracking of 'current primary bet' or dynamic monitoring of which bets are approaching expiry. Hardcoded bet #414 (a future target) while primary target

Refactor to track and monitor the agent's 'current highest-priority bet' (managed in state, updated each wake). Watcher should fire if: (a) priority bet enters 30-min take window AND CEX taker is in-money ≥0.5%, or (b) priority bet expires

Watcher monitors wrong timeline: future bet instead of active primary target

Agent correctly prioritized bets #32/#89 in w52–w54 and positioned USDC ($91.76 free). Watcher script instead monitors future bet #414 + new intents >591 with 2h fallback. Result: 25-min blackout w54→w56 during the exact take window the agent was waiting for (15:09–15:39). Bets expired unwatched.

Refactor watcher to track agent's current primary bet (e.g., next bet by expiry time). Add trigger: if primary bet enters 30-min expiry window AND CEX taker is in-money ≥0.5%, fire. Update state each wake to mark bets expired and advance to next priority.

2h fallback timeout defeats binary-bet latency mission

Binary bets have ~30-min take windows. 2h fallback creates gaps longer than the windows themselves. Agent correctly waits in w54, but watcher can't fire during the critical 25-min period (w54→w56) because next wake is 2h away.

Reduce fallback from 2h to 15min. Combined with active primary-bet monitoring, this ensures agent wakes during actual take windows and can act when conditions change.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Engine 1: no aligned binary (takerInMoneyNow=false hard gate). Engine 2: DCA slice into tech basket. sNVDA alone at 12.9

Intent #414 (BinaryBet, Mimic-Ljuba, crypto-down) open 79min with zero takes. Recent wakes confirm no aligned taker available (w14: 'takerInMoneyNow=false hard gate'). Mimic-Ljuba is natural counterparty but only 2 settled deals — capacity-constrained or sleeping.

MISSING: ETH price <1664 or >2% climb (threshold defined but never checked)

Mission mirrors BinaryBets and accepts winnable opens — natural taker for crypto-down bet

Picks off mispriced binaries; could take if #414 underpriced; just recovered per Step 1

Latency arbitrage, but 79-min stale BET is outside arbitrage window

Value trader vs Polymarket, not a taker for directional crypto-down bet

4h fallback window is reasonable patience for crypto conviction

PID tracking correct, RPC client initialized

ethAdverseThreshold=1664 defined but never used — no price check in loop

No ETH price fetch or comparison to threshold/history in the try-catch block

No persistence check for '>2% climb' rule (mission: halt if crypto rises persistently >2%)

2min polling interval is inert — watcher does nothing except log and await deadline

Watcher doesn't monitor ETH price despite being core to mission

ethAdverseThreshold=1664 is defined but the loop never checks it. Agent fires only on 4h fallback, not on crypto-decline signal. Mission is 'crypto down, tech up' but the price trigger is missing.

Add RPC price fetch each 2min: compare ETH price to 1664 and rolling history, fire on price cross or >2% move. Track direction to enforce mission's 'halt if persistent >2% climb' rule.

Possible overfit in take gate: 'takerInMoneyNow=false' hard gate

w14 blocks Engine 1 with 'no aligned binary (takerInMoneyNow=false hard gate)'. This checks if *counterparty* is in-the-money before taking. Intent #414 is waiting for a take — is the gate correct or too strict for the mission?

Audit: does 'takerInMoneyNow' gate match 'take crypto-down bets below strike'? If it's checking counterparty's P&L instead of Bear's entry, fix the gate logic.

Watcher framework lacks reactive price/data triggers

Watcher is fallback-only. No SDK pattern for 'monitor RPC signal and fire on event'. Blocks crypto agents from reacting to price levels.

Add reusable helper: 'armPriceTrigger(asset, levels, rpcUrl, fallbackMs)' to monitor and fire on price crosses/moves.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Two-sided depth mission-critical: expired phantom quotes = loss of fillable book. Oracle mids stable (no volTerm). Inven

quote expiry (~45 min), oracle breach (±15–50 bps), or new fillable intent

Summary: LP-Maker continues strong post-restart recovery. Prior summary (w38–w41) noted disciplined, on-mission reasoning; now adds wakes w42–w44 (through 17:19 UTC) showing sustained pattern: fresh flow taken (w42 intents 599 ETH, 583 sAAPL; rebalanced shorts), constraints respected (w42 intent 581 BTC missed due to insufficient balance), phantom depth risk managed

LP-Maker is the fleet's liquidity hub and remains in excellent health post-restart. 63 settled deals across diverse counterparties (Vulture 12x, Rebalancer 6x, Swing 3x, external 3 addresses), 8 open intents, $132.71 lifetime PnL. Recent wakes (w42–w44) show disciplined discrimination between value and churn—patient quote-holding strategy is effective. Ready to scale.

Agent thriving; no failure to analyze. 63 deals settled, 8 open, diverse counterparties, healthy daily PnL ($9.15 5h). Root-cause classification applies to stuck agents; LP-Maker is the opposite.

Sound and on-mission. Wakes w38–w44 consistently discriminate: reject repricing churn in low-move regimes (w39: 'Churn-free hold captures natural flow better'), act decisively on fresh flow (w42: took intents 599/583 within minutes of oracle moves), manage constraints rationally (w42: noted BTC miss due to insufficient balance, not reasoning failure). No re-derivation or off-target logic.

Oracle breach (±15–50 bps, triggers rebalancing)

New fillable swap intents (filters: USDC, BTC, ETH, SSV, sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT)

Sharp taker of LP's arbitrage-resistant quotes; 12 settled deals. Reliable, always hunting.

DCA bot; steady taker of portfolio-rebalancing swaps via LP quotes; 6 deals.

Dislocation fader; takes LP's pairs for reversion trades; 3 deals.

Methodical sNVDA stacker; takes LP's sNVDA quotes; 2 deals.

Option/binary valuer; sources ETH/BTC from LP for rebalancing; 1 deal.

Unknown, multiple deals (7). Whale, aggregator, or other smart contract.

None. Wake logs show agent acting on fresh flow (w42: took intents 599 ETH and 583 sAAPL to rebalance shorts within minutes of oracle moves). One miss (intent 581 BTC) was a hard constraint (insufficient balance), not a reasoning gap. Watcher monitors new fillable intents; no blind spots to the book.

Quote expiry watch (~45 min lifecycle)—critical for this agent's phantom-depth awareness

Oracle breach trigger (±15–50 bps)—right cadence for patient maker, avoids sub-minute churn

New fillable intent detection—captures counterparty flow without aggressive polling

60-min fallback is patient and matches the quote-lifecycle scale

Zero-LLM, fully deterministic; armWatcher + runWatchLoop + newMatches are solid patterns

Hardcoded intentIds array [609, 620, 621, ..., 631] from w44 state.json. Script will check these same IDs on w45 wake; once resolved, it fires (correct). But if

Dynamicize intentIds: read own open intents from state or via `belt.tools.readOwnIntents()` each wake, build the set fresh. **Priority: low.** Given current 45-min quote lifecycle and 19-min avg gap, hardcoded list covers ~2 wakes. Only esc

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on sole available BinaryBet. One deliberate move rule: skip churn on negative/thin edges. Waiting

Summary: Agent correctly holding after 3 new wakes (w14–w16, 12:43–14:18 UTC); zero ≥3pp taker edges found. Watcher remains armed, patience discipline sound. Since last summary: no fresh high-edge BinaryBets detected; binary market remains structurally thin on opportunities. Settled PnL -$0.74 over 2 deals with Polymarket-Ljuba raises minor edge-detection accuracy co

Agent correctly refusing thin edges (0 intents, -$0.74 PnL). No ≥3pp opportunities detected in 8 consecutive wakes (w9–w16); binary market genuinely thin, not an agent failure. Wake discipline sound; only minor concern is 2-deal sample of negative returns.

Binary market structural issue (Step 1): Polymarket intents #32/#89 unfilled 24+ hours despite being deeply ITM. Mimic-ljuba's last 8 wakes all returned 'Edge floor ≥3pp unmet' — no taker-side mispricings observed. Likely arb-hunter-tom (latency arbitrage) snaps best edges first, leaving copy-trader

Sound discipline. Agent applies 3pp edge floor and 'one deliberate move per wake' rule to avoid churn on thin edges. Recent wakes show transparent edge evaluation (posterProb/takerProb logic) and correct rejection of sub-3pp opportunities. Solving the right problem: copy-trading requires high-conviction edges, and refusing marginal bets is correct.

intent #414 expires (test harness artifact)

MISSING: none — triggers are fit-to-mission

2 settled BinaryBet deals; Polymarket-Ljuba posts mispriced bets vs Polymarket oracle.

Posts BinaryBets below conviction (crypto-down); mimic-ljuba's primary target. But no active intents logged.

unknown — no visibility into bear-yosher

Both are takers competing for same binary edges; latency arbitrage likely captures best first.

None detected. Agent has visibility to open intents (readOpenIntents limit 50); 8 consecutive wakes found zero ≥3pp edges. Book appears genuinely thin.

Fires on new high-edge BinaryBet discovery — exactly what copy-trader needs.

Ignores low-edge noise via >=0.53 (3pp) threshold; avoids churn.

45min fallback appropriate (not sub-minute polling; patient cadence fits mission).

No 'book non-empty' firing — precision triggers only.

Edge threshold hardcoded to 0.53 (3pp); no parameterization or tie to oracle spread.

computeImpliedProb assumes simple cost-to-probability mapping; doesn't account for gas or execution risk slippage.

Parameterize edge floor (e.g., via CLAUDE.md or config) so edge sensitivity can be tuned without code changes. Current hardcoded 0.53 is brittle if market conditions shift.

Binary market structurally thin on ≥3pp taker edges

Mimic-ljuba found zero takeable edges in 8 wakes (w9–w16). Arb-hunter-tom and mimic-ljuba are competing for the same thin binary pool; latency arbitrage (arb-hunter-tom) likely captures best edges first. Polymarket binary intents #32/#89 expired unfilled after 24h despite being ITM.

Fleet-level: increase binary bet volume/liquidity or reduce edge threshold if market is thin by design. Core: consider priority queueing for high-edge intents (first-fill, not race-condition).

Negative PnL on limited sample (2 deals, -$0.74)

Both settled deals with Polymarket-Ljuba returned -$0.37 average loss. Edge-detection accuracy or oracle slippage post-fill is unclear with n=2.

Log oracle price at intent-post vs fill time; audit edge calculation against actual outcome for next 5+ deals to verify hasTakerEdge() is accurate.

Agent correctly refusing thin edges (0 intents, -$0.74 PnL). No ≥3pp opportunities detected in 8 consecutive wakes (w9–w16); binary market genuinely thin, not an agent failure. Wake discipline sound; only minor concern is 2-deal sample of negative returns.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Summary: Still correctly idle through w5 (188 min ago, ~17:42 UTC). Market remains flat: <1pp gaps (BTC $61,526, ETH $1,642, SSV $2.02 at w5); no >3% move from baseline. Watcher armed, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=61 (fires ~18:32 UTC). Zero new intents posted since w1; 4 repeat wakes confirm no churn, just patient re-evaluation. Structural wait, not agent failure—

Momentum-nikita is well-behaved. 1 settled deal (w1 BTC position, -0.73 USD realized PnL), 0 open intents, 0 new posts since market failed to clear 3% threshold. Wake-script fires on momentum breakout or 61-min fallback. No agent failure—structural flat market.

Flat market, <1pp gaps across BTC/ETH/SSV at w5 baseline. No leadership shift yet. Agent correctly waits; no momentum candidate has emerged to justify new position.

Sound. Agent's reasoning is correct: don't deploy capital on noise; wait for >3% move or fallback timer. Repeating w2–w5 with 'no on-chain action' reflects discipline, not churn. The 3% threshold is appropriate for momentum hunting (filters micro-moves). No sign of solving the wrong problem.

Crypto >3% move from w5 baseline (BTC $61,526, ETH $1,642, SSV $2.02)

4h fallback timer (~18:32 UTC, 61 min remaining)

Primary liquidity provider; would fill momentum swaps if posted.

Picks off dislocations; might take sharp momentum swaps if priced correctly.

Directional (crypto down conviction); might align if momentum swaps match that thesis.

None. No intents on book that momentum-nikita could have taken; market lacked momentum signal to trigger posting.

Fires on actionable signal (>3% move = meaningful momentum breakout, not noise)

60-second poll matches momentum latency requirements

Baseline frozen at w5 oracle is defensible for tracking session-relative breakouts

No re-anchor of baseline on each new wake (e.g., to catch rolling momentum within a new cycle—currently it's breakout detection from w5's snapshot). Minor: defe

None required. Script is well-reasoned. If the mission evolves to track *rolling* leadership (momentum relative to the previous wake, not the session baseline), re-anchor BASELINE on each wake—but current fixed-baseline approach is sound fo

Momentum-nikita is well-behaved. 1 settled deal (w1 BTC position, -0.73 USD realized PnL), 0 open intents, 0 new posts since market failed to clear 3% threshold. Wake-script fires on momentum breakout or 61-min fallback. No agent failure—structural flat market.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: Watcher remains correctly armed for audited options (templateHash 0xcd5689c, 2h fallback). Six wakes: w1 (09:05) approved USDC allowance; w2–w6 (09:08–13:19) fallback fires found zero options each. Market confirmed starved—Option-Writer (sole counterparty) Engine 1 paused post-6-rejection for 8+ hours. Agent awaiting supply correctly with no logic churn. Cor

Agent operationally sound and correctly idle. Market starved: Option-Writer (only counterparty) offline 8+ hours, zero audited options in book. Agent will fire immediately on supply return; nothing to take now.

Option-Writer-Matheus (sole source, Engine 1 writes 0xcd5689c) paused post-6-rejection. Zero audited options posted in 218+ min per Step 1; wakes w2–w6 (09:08–13:19) confirm zero persists. Agent scanned and found nothing each fallback cycle.

Sound. Agent is correctly waiting with well-tuned watcher; no re-derivation or wasteful churn. Depends entirely on Option-Writer's Engine 1 restart to resume.

New audited option intent matching 0xcd5689c

2h fallback (armed, ~60 min to next fire)

Only source of audited options (0xcd5689c template exclusive)

offline (Engine 1 paused post-rejection,

Correctly filters for new audited options via exact templateHash match

2h fallback is patient yet vigilant (not sub-minute polling waste)

Fires on NEW matches only, not persistent re-checks (respects market scarcity)

No change to watcher; it is well-reasoned for a selective buyer with thin supply. Core fix is at Option-Writer: debug 6-rejection error and restart Engine 1. Once supply resumes, this agent fires immediately.

Option-Writer Engine 1 paused; zero audited options in market for 8+ hours

Only counterparty offline post-6-rejection. Blocks all option-taker flow. Option-Writer has 13 deals lifetime but repeated rejections indicate structural issue (audit failure, margin constraint, or template mismatch).

Investigate 6-rejection error in Option-Writer Engine 1. Restart to restore supply and unblock option-taker's sole counterparty.

Agent operationally sound and correctly idle. Market starved: Option-Writer (only counterparty) offline 8+ hours, zero audited options in book. Agent will fire immediately on supply return; nothing to take now.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Rotation execution is in flight. Intent 528 filled as expected (sMSFT exit complete). Intents 530/533 expiring soon (~12

Summary: Engine 1 (options) correctly paused at w21 after 6 consecutive rejections detected market signal. Pivoted to Engine 2 (portfolio rotation) at w23, posting 3 swaps at oracle mid (528/530/533). Intent 528 (sMSFT exit) filled successfully at w24, but buy intents 530/533 (sNVDA/sAAPL) expired unfilled by w25 despite oracle-mid pricing. Agent recognized the failu

Portfolio rotation swap #528 (sMSFT) filled, but buy orders #530/#533 expired—likely due to LP inventory constraints (LP is post-recovery hub with 63 deals but limited sNVDA/sAAPL stock). The agent's reasoning is sound (paused options after 6 rejections, pivoted to swaps, priced at oracle mid), but the market-depth issue is structural, not agent error. Watcher now waits until market close to reassess; risk is that reposting similar swaps will fail again if LP remains short.

Intent 528 (sell sMSFT) filled by LP-Maker-Matheus; intents 530 (buy sNVDA 0.0823, $17 size) and 533 (buy sAAPL 0.00623, $1.82 size) expired despite oracle-mid pricing. LP hub has inventory to sell equities but not to buy them post-recovery.

Sound. Engine 1 pause at w21 was disciplined (6 rejections = market signal, not execution error). Pivot to Engine 2 was on-mission. Portfolio ranking logic is correct (hold worst-2 stocks by daily return). Pricing at oracle mid was reasonable first attempt. Agent correctly diagnosed unfilled buys as likely inventory, not mispricing, in w25 logs. Continuity intact: no re-deriving, each wake builds

Time-based: fire at market close (US 20:00 UTC, ~4h 15m from w25)

MISSING: book-watch fallback. If LP restocks sNVDA/sAAPL mid-day, agent won't wake to catch it; sleeping 4h 15m is appropriate for daily rotation, but zero visi

LP is the hub (63 settled deals) and filled intent 528 (sell). But post-recovery inventory skews toward crypto/cash, short on equities.

armed, last wake 5 min ago, pidAlive=tru

Mission is crypto-down bets, not equity buys. Could fill if it's posting equity swaps (unclear).

Swing fades dislocations via swaps (3 deals), but no signal that it provides sell-side liquidity for sNVDA/sAAPL buys.

Intents 530/533 could have filled if LP had sNVDA/sAAPL inventory. No evidence the agent could have scaled differently (sizes are already small: ~$17 and $1.82). The market-depth issue is structural — an agent cannot manufacture counterparties.

Time-based trigger at market close is natural boundary for daily rotation logic

Fallback present and reasonable (4h 15m, non-LLM)

Won't fire on book non-empty (not reactive, not churn-prone)

No intermediate wake if Engine 2 stalls (2+ unfilled rotation attempts). Agent sleeps 4h 15m blind to LP inventory changes — if LP restocks at 18:30 UTC, agent

No explicit condition for Engine 1 resume. At market close, what triggers a retry of options writing?

Add a mid-rotation fallback wake at 1h or 90m: check if LP has posted new equity intents since last wake. If yes, wake immediately to reprice/post. If no, resume sleep until market close. This keeps the patient daily cadence but captures mi

Engine 2 repricing strategy underdefined

Rotation swaps at oracle mid failed to fill (530/533 expired, 50+ min window). Agent correctly blamed LP inventory, but if this pattern repeats (Engine 2 consistently unfilled), agent should have a fallback: widen spread, reduce size, or pause Engine 2.

Add rule: if Engine 2 fails to fill on 2 consecutive wakes, pause and revert to Engine 1 (options) or hold cash.

Engine 1 resume criterion unclear

Pause at w21 was correct (6 rejections). But no explicit trigger for resume. Will agent try options again at market close, or only if Engine 2 stalls? Current state.json doesn't answer.

Codify: 'Resume Engine 1 if (a) 2+ consecutive Engine 2 fails, OR (b) >4h without any fill.' Make it state-driven, not ad-hoc.

Watcher book-blindness

Agent can't detect when LP restocks inventory mid-rotation. Sleeping until market close (4h 15m) is fine for a patient agent, but at least one mid-cycle wake (60–90 min) would reduce missed fills without adding churn.

Enhance wake-watch.js to support 'wake on counterparty intent post' (if observable from the Recorder). Alternatively, add a fallback sub-wake at 1h for 'check if new liquidity appeared.'

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Edge 5.17% > 3% entry threshold; sizing $18.75 (25% of remaining $75 equity, well within 70% directional cap); leaves $5

sAAPL hits stop/forward, new takeable bet, or June 10 18:00 UTC fallback

Summary: Recovered from watcher crash (12h50m offline between w2–w3, 06-08 20:01 → 06-09 08:53) that left binaries #32/#89 unmonitored during peak take window. Accepted test bet #36 w4 (+11.2pp edge, lost w5—sound reasoning, bad luck). Pivoted to sAAPL swaps w7–w8 (4–5% and 5.17% edge, proper sizing) as binary book stayed empty. Watcher now armed for sAAPL #601 resol

Agent reasoning is disciplined and on-mission. Root cause of #32/#89 expiring unfilled: watcher died for 12h50m (w2→w3), leaving intents unmonitored during critical take window while Arb-Hunter-Tom (primary counterparty) had its own timing gap. Not an edge miscalc—a platform uptime issue. Current pivot to sAAPL swaps is sensible. Watcher script well-reasoned, but the crash exposed a single-watcher risk.

BTC binary #32 @0.617 posted 06-08 18:03 (10pp edge, Polymarket $158k liq), ETH binary #89 @0.588 posted 06-08 20:01 (10.3% edge). Watcher crashed between w2 (20:01 06-08) and w3 (08:53 06-09)—12h50m offline. Arb-Hunter-Tom (primary binary taker) had watcher timing gap 15:04–15:29 UTC (reported in S

Sound on-mission throughout, not solving wrong problem. w1–w2: High-signal binaries, quantified edge vs Polymarket data. w4: Accepted +11.2pp edge bet with proper position sizing (4.3% of book, <10% cap). w5–w6: Disciplined hold; no chasing marginal edge. w7–w8: Pivot to sAAPL swaps when binary book empty—sizing <70% directional cap, edges 4.18% and 5.17%. No churn, no misalignment. The watcher cr

sAAPL swap intent #601 resolved (filled or expired)

New takeable binary/option intent appears

Primary counterparty for deeply ITM binaries; should be natural taker of #32/#89, but watcher gap (15:04–15:29 UTC) and Ljuba's offline wind

ok health, but timing reliability questi

Copy-trader of BinaryBets; already settled 1 binary with Ljuba

Deep inventory, settled 1 swap with Ljuba; would respond to sAAPL swaps

Crypto-down conviction, taker-first on BinaryBets; alignment depends on BTC/ETH direction

None at reasoning level. Intents #32/#89 were abandoned due to watcher crash and expiry, not agent hesitation. w3–w6 disciplined non-action (no edge on book) shows proper judgment, not missed alpha. Current open intent #601 (sAAPL swap) posted w8, too recent to assess fill.

Polls every 60s for new takeable binary/option intents—responsive to mission core

Fallback to 06-10 18:00 UTC prevents indefinite starvation

Filters for binary/option only (excludes swaps, own posts)—mission-aligned filter

Checks if sAAPL swap #601 resolved—pragmatic anchor while waiting for next binary opportunity

Single watcher instance—crash w2→w3 left intents orphaned for 12h50m. No redundancy or heartbeat fallback to trigger faster re-arm.

Add a secondary 6–12h fallback to re-check the binary book and optionally refresh binaries if Polymarket data has shifted. Current 25h fallback is safe but long enough that a brief crash window (like w2→w3) can silently orphan valid intents

Watcher crashed 12h50m (w2→w3), left binary intents unmonitored during critical window

Ljuba's watcher died after w2 (06-08 20:01) and re-armed w3 (06-09 08:53)—12h50m offline. During that window, intents #32/#89 were posted but unmonitored. Step 1 notes Arb-Hunter-Tom also had a timing gap (15:04–15:29 UTC). The two failures coincided: Ljuba offline + Arb-Hunter-Tom gapped = intents

Investigate watcher crash root (SDK heartbeat, process kill, memory, timeout?). Implement secondary fallback or health-check to catch crashes faster. Consider mandatory heartbeat every 6h for patient agents.

Binary market starved—no reliable taker for deeply ITM binaries

Intents #32 (10pp edge) and #89 (10.3% edge) were high-conviction, Polymarket-validated, and deeply ITM. Still expired unfilled. Root causes: (a) Ljuba offline 12h50m, (b) Arb-Hunter-Tom's watcher gap. But deeper issue: only one binary maker (Ljuba) posting regularly; only one primary taker (Arb-Hun

Encourage secondary binary makers or takers. Ensure Arb-Hunter-Tom's watcher has fallback cadence. Consider longer binary expiries (48h instead of 24h) to tolerate brief crashes.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

#631 was favorable take (underweight leg at ≤ oracle per mission); must take before posting own. sAAPL most underweight;

intent #645 resolves (filled/expired), or stocks market close 20:00 UTC

Summary: Agent executing patient DCA flawlessly: now 8 settled deals (was 7; +1 new swap settled), 1 open intent (#645 sAAPL DCA posted during market hours). Correctly dormant during market-closed hours (w13–w17), took favorable external opportunity on intent #631 (sAAPL underweight) at w18. Watcher armed, fallback 140 min (~02:48 UTC) will re-trigger before stock ma

Patient DCA execution on track. Settled 8 deals (6 via LP-Maker, 2 external); correctly resting during market-closed hours while waiting for stock market open 13:30 UTC. Watcher has stale trigger reference (market close 20:00 UTC 06-09 already passed) but fallback at 140 min ensures re-check before market open. Open intent #645 (sAAPL DCA) pending fill; will be re-assessed at market open when deploying the -40pp stock gap rebalance.

No root cause. Agent is not stuck; it is correctly dormant during market-closed hours and will activate at stock market open 13:30 UTC 06-10 to address the -40pp portfolio gap via DCA swaps.

Sound. Agent correctly prioritizes stock DCA (largest gap: -40pp), respects market hours (stocks trade 13:30–20:00 UTC only), avoids posting during closed hours, takes favorable off-mission opportunities when available (intent #631), and maintains patient ~2h wake cadence (avg 122 min). Not re-deriving; disciplined and on-mission.

Intent #645 (sAAPL DCA) resolution (fill/expire)

Stocks market close 20:00 UTC 06-09 [STALE — market closed 4h 28 min ago]

Fallback 1800s (~30 min) [actual watcher shows 140 min / ~02:48 UTC]

MISSING: Explicit fire at stocks market open 13:30 UTC 06-10 to ensure immediate DCA deployment when market opens

Filled 6/8 swaps (75%); proven liquidity for both stock and crypto DCA slices. Reliable and consistently available.

active (hub: 63 settled deals, 8 open in

Posts crypto-down binaries; rebalancer needs crypto swaps—possible overlap but not primary counterparty. No settled deals with rebalancer.

Posts buy/sell on dislocations; rebalancer posts DCA slices—complementary but not primary. No settled deals shown.

None. Agent took intent #631 (favorable sAAPL underweight take) at w18. During market-closed hours (w13–w17), correctly identified no favorable BTC/ETH off-hour trades (both near-target). Recent behavior: opportunistic and on-mission.

Polls intent #645 every 30s (low cost, responsive to fill/expire)

Has fallback to re-evaluate every ~30 min if intent unresolved

Correctly avoids sub-minute polling or book-watching when mission doesn't require it

Trigger reference 'stocks market close 20:00 UTC 06-09' is stale—that event passed 4h+ ago. Watcher will not fire on a past event; only fallback re-checks.

No explicit 'fire at stocks market OPEN 13:30 UTC 06-10' to ensure agent acts immediately when the market opens and the -40pp stock DCA is needed. Relies on 140

Update watcher to fire at stocks market open (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10) instead of/in-addition-to the expired market close time. This ensures the agent is positioned to post fresh stock DCA intents the moment market opens, reducing latency on t

Wake-script trigger reference outdated

Script references 'stocks market close 20:00 UTC 06-09', which already occurred at 06-09T20:00:00Z. It is now 06-10T~00:28 UTC. The trigger will not fire. Watcher relies on 140-min fallback (~02:48 UTC) to re-assess, which re-triggers ~10.5 hours before stock market open at 13:30 UTC.

Update the armWatcher deadline to fire AT stocks market open (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10): `const STOCKS_MARKET_OPEN = new Date('2026-06-10T13:30:00Z').getTime(); fallbackMs = Math.max(1800_000, STOCKS_MARKET_OPEN - Date.now());`. This ensures the agent is ready to post DCA intents the moment the market o

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Refresh protocol: oracle drift >0.5% requires re-posting bid at fresh oracle×0.99 to keep bait competitive. Mission rule

Summary: Watcher recovered from offline state (prior summary flagged armed=false for 34+ min; now armed=true, pidAlive=true, watcher alive). DCA fill rate sustained at 22% (2 fills in 9 market-hours wakes, 06-09 12:15–17:23 UTC). Both fills via LP-Maker-Matheus hub; deployed 0.004884 sNVDA (~$1 at oracle). Wake script well-reasoned for patient accumulation: fires on

Stacker is on-mission and disciplined: 2 fills in 9 market-hours wakes (22% fill rate) via LP-Maker-Matheus, the reliable hub. Intent refresh logic is sound (consistent oracle×0.99 bids, responding to drift >0.5%). Watcher is alive and responsive. Only issue: no terminal condition — mission says 'until budget deployed' but script has no budget target or stop logic.

Not a stuck-deal root cause — this agent is filling steadily via a reliable counterparty. LP-Maker-Matheus (63 deals) is the hub and naturally takes buy-side limit bids. The 22% fill rate reflects the patient DCA strategy (one 0.50 USDC slice per wake, not every wake yields a fill). This is healthy

On-mission and sound. Stacker posts 0.50 USDC buy-side limit bids at oracle×0.99 (1% discount), refreshes when oracle drifts >0.5%, respects market hours (no DCA outside 09:30 ET open). Intent refresh sequence (534→558→575[fill]→584→604→636) shows correct tracking of moving oracle, not stale re-posting. The 22% fill rate is expected for a patient buyer with one reliable counterparty.

Intent resolves (when slice fills, post next slice)

Oracle drifts >0.5% from post price (refresh bid to stay competitive)

Sweepable sNVDA sell-side at oracle×1.005 (secondary opportunity)

30-min fallback (re-assess and refresh bid)

Hub with 63 settled deals. Fills buy-side limit bids from any agent. Stacker's oracle×0.99 bids are attractive take-side economics. 2/2 fill

awake (19 min since last wake), actively

None observed in recent wakes. Watcher polls for sweepable sNVDA sell-side (oracle×1.005) every 60 sec; no detections logged in recent window. Book transparency is opaque to watcher, so 'missed' is unmeasurable unless event-driven data appears.

Fires on intent resolution (slice fills → wake to post next slice)

Monitors oracle drift >0.5% to keep bid competitive in moving market

30-min fallback ensures no sub-minute polling (patient DCA, not latency-hungry)

Poll interval 60 sec is efficient (catches drift without waste)

Agent-side market hours enforcement (no DCA outside 09:30 ET trading window) is disciplined

No BUDGET_TARGET or DEPLOYED_TOTAL in script — agent has no terminal condition; mission says 'until budget deployed' but watcher doesn't know when to stop, will

Add BUDGET_TARGET_USD (e.g., $100) and track DEPLOYED_TOTAL (sum of sNVDA acquired, valued at acquisition prices). After each fill, check if deployed_total >= budget_target; if true, cancel any outstanding intent and emit a 'mission complet

Missing terminal condition (BUDGET_TARGET)

Mission: 'convert USDC into sNVDA... until budget deployed.' Script has no awareness of budget limits or mission end-state. Agent will post 0.50 USDC slices indefinitely, accumulating without defined completion.

Add BUDGET_TARGET_USD state variable and track DEPLOYED_TOTAL (sum of sNVDA acquired × acquisition price in USDC equivalent). After each fill, evaluate: if deployed_total >= budget_target, cancel any open intent and stop (emit 'mission complete' for the board).

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Real -1.89% dislocation vs threshold 1.5%. Slice at upper end of range (23% of book) respects USDC buffer ($80.2 - $23 =

SSV intent 0x289 resolves (fill/expiry) or 1h fallback

Summary: Nikita executed the fade cycle cleanly: posted two valid dislocations (sAAPL -3.49%, BTC -1.62%) in w5–w7, held through LP downtime, then pivoted when LP recovered (w8–w9) to accept resting quotes instead of waiting for expiry—captured mean reversion on sAAPL (buy 11.7 USDC → sell 11.9 USDC) and trimmed position from 31.9% to 20%. w10 confirmed all assets <1

Nikita posted 2 actionable dislocations (sAAPL -3.49%, BTC -1.62%, both >1.5% threshold, w5–w7) and executed the full cycle: held during LP downtime, accepted LP's better resting quotes on reversal (deals 61, 62), trimmed from 31.9% to 20%, and correctly holds now awaiting next ≥1.5% dislocation. No open intents, zero missed opportunities, +$0.21 realized PnL. Watcher well-reasoned for mission.

No new dislocations ≥1.5% since w10 (16:24 UTC); all assets <1.5% currently. Not a failure — correct behavior per mission. Next signal required to act.

Sound and on-mission. Nikita correctly identified dislocations (sAAPL -3.49% vs 1.5% threshold, BTC -1.62% vs 1.5% threshold), sized appropriately (20 USDC slices, 15–25% range, $20 USDC buffer), maintained one-move-per-wake discipline, and—critically—adapted when LP downtime would have stalled the posted intents. Instead of waiting for expiry churn, accepted LP's resting quotes (11.7 and 11.9 USD

New dislocation ≥1.5% emerges (scans dislocations.json, baseline-aware to avoid repeat fires)

3-hour fallback timer (180 min cadence, patient for a fade hunter)

All 3 settled deals (61, 62, and prior) with LP-Maker; deep liquid inventory, recovers fast (12:48–16:16 downtime recovered by w8 16:16), be

armed, hub-active (63 deals, 19 min sinc

Two convictions (crypto down, tech up); could take BTC fade if conviction aligns, but taker-first strategy means posts first—low fill probab

3 deals, ok health (no waker status give

Values mispriced assets; could theoretically take a dislocation fade if oracle repricing aligns, but values against Polymarket distribution,

None. w5–w7 posted intents expired during LP downtime (correct: no point holding through that), w8–w9 accepted LP's resting quotes (mean reversion captured), w10 correctly held when all assets <1.5%. No actionable dislocations were missed.

Fires on dislocation ≥1.5% threshold (aligns mission: fade stretches)

3-hour fallback (patient, appropriate for mean-reversion hunter)

Baseline-aware 'new asset' logic prevents re-firing on same dislocation

Zero-LLM, deterministic scan of dislocations.json (no guessing)

Doesn't fire on 'book non-empty'—only on threshold breach

60-second poll interval is sub-minute; for a patient agent thinking in hours, 120–180s would reduce scan load without much responsiveness loss (if dislocations

Lengthen poll interval from 60s to 120–180s and measure dislocation persistence on next 2–3 cycles. If most fades last >2 min, the longer interval saves CPU with negligible miss rate.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

CLAUDE.md rule: cancel all eroded quotes, then re-quote fresh. sAAPL below floor is portfolio-critical — rebalance manda

15 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781029045; next poll 80s

Summary: Vulture-Andrew shows disciplined margin enforcement (w20: cancelled undermargin baits 0.22%/0.67%, reposted fresh at 1.8%/1% floors) and successfully took deal 68 at 1.25% edge in w21. Realized PnL improved from -2.87 to -2.41 USD this cycle (+0.46 USD gain from recent trade), but lifetime loss rate of -8.6% (28 deals, -2.41 USD) suggests the 1%+ margin floo

Edge thesis is recovering tactically (deal 68 acceptance, margin discipline in w20), but PnL is still negative at -2.41 USD lifetime (-8.6% per deal). Single highest-value move: add bait-erosion detector to vulture-watch.ts so it fires when own-intent margins slippage below 1% floor, eliminating manual re-quote lag.

Realized PnL -2.41 USD across 28 settled deals = -8.6% average loss per trade (vs. -10.6% last run on 27 deals). Recent margin enforcement is correct (w20: cancelled 0.22%/0.67%, reposted at 1.8%/1%; w21: took deal 68 at 1.25% edge), but the persistent negative lifetime PnL despite disciplined gatin

Sound and disciplined. The margin-enforcement logic is correct ('check-my-quotes flagged 565/566 below 1% floor → cancel and re-quote fresh'). The edge-acceptance gate (1.25% for deal 68) is properly filtered. However, the pattern of frequent re-triggering on erosion (w18, w20, w22, w23 all show manual cancellations of eroded baits) reveals a process gap: the watcher does not fire on bait degradat

Takeable edge detected (scan-edges.ts, whole book, GLOBAL rule)

Fallback every 2h (7200s, FALLBACK_SEC) for re-orient

MISSING: Own-intent margin erosion below 1% floor (currently caught manually, not by watcher)

22/28 settled deals (79%) with LP-Maker-Matheus. Highly reliable maker with consistent quotes. Vulture's primary counterparty.

yes (63 deals, last wake 19 min ago, hea

1 deal crossed (Arb-Hunter-Tom in settled_deals). Minimal overlap; both hunt edges, low collision risk.

Posts BinaryBets below conviction; Vulture could take mispriced crypto bets if tight enough. No deals yet.

Fades dislocations via delivered swaps; Vulture could jump on swing overshoots. No deals yet.

Unmeasurable: watcher only fires on 'takeable edge NOW', so historical miss-rate vs full order-book history is not observable. Between w16–w21, agent explicitly passed w19 ('no edges >1% gate') — correct filtering. Likely missed: thin edges from Bear-Yosher, Swing-Nikita that fell below 1.25%/1% thresholds, or arrived during watcher sleep/fallback windows.

Zero-token polling (deterministic scan-edges.ts, no LLM per tick) — correct for always-on monitoring

Fires on 'takeable edge NOW' (GLOBAL rule) — correct for edge-picking mission

Adaptive cadence (faster when book busy, slower when quiet) — balances bait competitiveness vs polling cost

Hard fallback 2h (7200s) — prevents drift on quiet days

Tightens polling 5 min before expiry (PRE_EXPIRY_SEC=300) — good for near-decided intents

No erosion detector for own posted intents. w18/w20/w22/w23 show manual cancellations of baits that fell below 1% floor (e.g., w20: sMSFT 0.22%, BTC 0.67%), but

Add bait-erosion scanner: each tick, scan Vulture's own open intents; if any have degraded below 1% margin floor, call wakeNow('bait eroded to X% floor'). This fires the wake-routine to cancel eroded quotes and re-post fresh. Eliminates the

Bait-erosion detector missing from watcher

w18/w20/w22/w23 all show manual cancellations of eroded baits (e.g., w20: intent 565 sMSFT 0.22%, intent 566 BTC 0.67%). The watcher does not monitor for own-intent margin degradation in real-time, so re-quoting lags 3–5 min. This costs competitiveness — by the time w20 cancels 565/566, fresher quot

In vulture-watch.ts, add a live erosion check per tick: scan Vulture's open intents, calculate remaining margin vs the 1% floor. If any intent's margin has eroded below floor (e.g., due to other trades moving mid), fire wake with reason 'bait eroded below 1% floor'. This will trigger re-quote immedi

Edge gate may be too tight after gas

Realized lifetime PnL is -2.41 USD on 28 deals (-8.6% loss rate). Recent deal 68 at 1.25% edge returned +0.46 USD (positive), but the 1%+ bait-posting floor is dragging overall PnL negative. On small swaps (~$4–7 sizes shown in w16/w17), gas costs 50–100 bps; a 1% margin = 100 bps, leaving near-zero

Backtest the edge gate: compute realized margin on recent deals (e.g., #60–#68) = (settlement PnL) / (swap notional). If median realized margin is <0.5%, raise the take gate from 1.25%→1.5% and post gate from 1%→1.5%. Re-run to confirm loss rate improves.

LP HUB HEALTHY; BINARY+OPTION MARKETS OFFLINE

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Rebalancer-Lior + Vulture-Andrew + Stacker-Massimo

ACTIVE HUB: 11 of 16 recent deals; 7 open intents showing healthy flow

Arb-Hunter-Tom ⇄ Polymarket-Ljuba + Mimic-Ljuba (copy-trader)

FROZEN: Bets #32/#89 unfilled 24+ hours despite 10pp+ edges; Tom watcher gap + P

Option-Taker-Matheus ⇄ Option-Writer-Matheus (Engine 1)

OFFLINE: Engine 1 paused w21 (6 rejections); zero options 218+ min

SINGLETON: 1 open perpetual, no recent settlement activity

Arb-Hunter-Tom watcher monitors future bet #414 + new intents >591 with 2h fallback; zero trigger for primary bets #32/#

Agent positioned $91.76 USDC by w54 (15:04 UTC) but watcher gap w54→w56 (25 min) left entire 15:09–15:39 take window unm

Polymarket-Ljuba watcher crash 12h50m offline (w2→w3, 20:01 06-08 → 08:53 06-09) + Arb-Hunter-Tom blackout same window

Binary market lost both primary and secondary taker during exact peak post-LP-recovery window; bets #32/#89 stayed unfil

Polymarket offline 12h50m covering Arb-Hunter gap 15:04–15:29 UTC; LP-Maker recovered 19 min before w3 (08:53); no binary settlement in 16 recent deals

Option-Writer-Matheus Engine 1 paused w21 after 6 consecutive rejections (templateHash 0xcd5689c filter fails); sole sou

Option-Taker-Matheus starved for 218+ min; wakes w2–w6 (09:08–13:19 UTC) each found zero options; taker correctly waitin

Engine 1 paused w21; Option-Taker wakes w2–w6 all returned zero options; zero audited options posted per Step 1 focus areas (218+ min elapsed)

LP-Maker-Matheus hub dominance: 63 settled deals (5× Rebalancer-Lior, 7× Vulture-Andrew, 1× Stacker-Massimo, others); co

Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita, 0x5F79…CB6D all routing through single LP; when LP downt

11 of 16 recent settled deals are LP-Maker ↔ someone; 7 LP-Maker open intents all filling diverse counterparty orders; $9.15 5h PnL sustaining fleet

Mimic-Ljuba copy-trader dependency on Arb-Hunter-Tom edges + zero independent bet generation; last 8 wakes found zero ≥3

When Arb-Hunter-Tom sleeps, Mimic has no fallback; binary market loses tertiary trader; only Polymarket-Ljuba (secondary

Mimic 8 consecutive wakes: 'Edge floor ≥3pp unmet'; implies Tom snaps high-edge bets first; Polymarket crash left zero binary takers active

Latency arbitrage watcher timing gap cost $158k+ Polymarket binary take-window

Arb-Hunter-Tom correctly identified bets #32/@0.617 (10pp edge, $158k liquidity) and #89/@0.588 (10.3% edge) as primary targets and positioned $91.76 USDC free by w54 (15:04 UTC) for take during window 15:09–15:39. Watcher script monitors 'new intent >591' and 'future bet #414 in 30-min window' with 2h fallback—zero trigger for primary bets. Gap w54→w56 (25 minutes, 15:04–15:29 UTC) left entire take window unmonitored. Bets expired unfi

Bet #32 posted 06-08 18:03 UTC (BTC 2.27% below strike at time, 10pp edge); Agent positioned 15:04; no wake until w56 (15:29), missing entire 25-min span; both bets expired 06-09 18:03 UTC unfilled

Update watcher to monitor bets #32/#89 directly, OR add rule 'fire on any BTC/ETH binary >8pp edge posted within last 4h'. Prevents future latency-arb blindness.

Binary market structurally collapsed: three-way failure left $158k ITM bet unfilled 24 hours

Bets #32 (10pp edge) and #89 (10.3% edge) posted 06-08 18:03–20:01 expired unfilled despite deeply ITM. Stacked failures: (1) Arb-Hunter-Tom (primary binary taker) missed take window due to watcher timing gap w54→w56 (15:04–15:29 UTC, reported separately as critical). (2) Polymarket-Ljuba (secondary binary taker) suffered watcher crash 12h50m offline (w2→w3, 20:01 06-08 → 08:53 06-09), covering exact window when Tom missed. (3) Mimic-Lj

Bets #32/#89 unfilled 24+ hours; Arb-Hunter gap 15:04–15:29 UTC; Polymarket offline 12h50m w2→w3; Mimic 8 consecutive wakes 'Edge floor ≥3pp unmet'; binary settlement rate 6% (1 of 16 recent deals)

(1) Fix Arb-Hunter watcher (separate critical fix). (2) Investigate Polymarket crash root cause + add watcher process monitoring (separate critical fix). (3) Recruit independent binary maker OR enable Mimic independent bet generation (not copy-only). (4) Stagger Arb-Hunter + Poly

Option market supply-side collapsed: 218+ min zero audited options, taker idle

Option-Writer-Matheus Engine 1 (writes options templateHash 0xcd5689c) paused at w21 after 6 consecutive rejections detected market signal. Pivot to Engine 2 (swap portfolio rotation) succeeded for sell side (intent 528 sNVDA sold to LP-Maker w24), but buy intents 530/533 (sNVDA 0.0823, sAAPL 0.00623, oracle-mid pricing) expired unfilled. Option-Taker-Matheus remains armed and patient but found zero audited options matching 0xcd5689c fo

Engine 1 paused w21 after 6 rejections; Option-Taker wakes w2–w6 each found zero options; 218+ min elapsed since last option posted per Step 1 focus areas; zero option deals in last 16 recent settled

(1) Debug Option-Writer rejection logs: why 6 consecutive rejections? Is templateHash 0xcd5689c filter too restrictive? (2) Review SDK option generation criteria. (3) Add Option-Writer fallback: auto-retry with broader filter OR manual recovery trigger. Restores ~$50k option mark

Polymarket-Ljuba watcher crash 12h50m exposed binary market fragility

Watcher offline between w2 (20:01 06-08) and w3 (08:53 06-09), 12h50m duration. This period covered: (1) Arb-Hunter-Tom's missed 15:04–15:29 UTC take window (separate critical issue), (2) LP-Maker-Matheus recovery completion (~19 min before w3), exact window when binary bets #32/#89 became fillable. Combined with Arb-Hunter blackout, binary book stayed unfilled. Watcher is alive now (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=717), but crash exposed l

Watcher offline w2→w3, 12h50m; w3 wake found binary book empty; bets #32/#89 posted 18:03–20:01, expired 18:03 next day unfilled; no process monitoring detected crash until w3 fallback fired

(1) Inspect watcher crash logs (why did process die?). (2) Add watcher process monitoring (e.g., /healthz endpoint, systemd restart, or periodic ping). (3) Implement auto-recovery: kill stale process + restart fallback. Prevents future 12h+ binary book blindness.

LP-Maker-Matheus liquidity hub healthy and sustaining diverse counterparty flow

Agent recovered cleanly after 19 min downtime. Now 63 settled deals (diverse: swaps, perpetuals, binaries), 8 open intents, $9.15 5h PnL. Active counterparties: Rebalancer-Lior (5 settled swaps + 1 open), Vulture-Andrew (7 settled swaps + 4 open), Stacker-Massimo (1 settled + 1 open), Swing-Nikita (1 settled + engaged), 0x5F79…CB6D (2 settled + 1 open). 7 open intents all showing healthy flow (sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT, SSV, BTC, ETH amounts

11 of 16 recent settled deals involve LP-Maker (68%); 7 LP-Maker open intents with 30–32 min remaining; daily PnL +$9.15 in 5h (run started 12:34 UTC, current snapshot 17:34 UTC); healthy diverse counterparty mix

Monitor for capacity constraints if volume scales beyond 63 deals/day. Diversify counterparties if Matheus becomes overextended (e.g., enable LP-Maker-Soren or LP-Maker-Boris as secondary hubs).

Rebalancer-Lior on-mission DCA executing; dormancy during market-closed is correct behavior

Agent correctly dormant w13–w17 (market-closed 17:30–09:30 UTC). Woke at w18 to capture external sAAPL opportunity, settling 1 new deal (now 8 settled, was 7 prior summary). 1 open intent #645 (sAAPL DCA, 100+ USDC) ready to rebalance -40pp portfolio gap. Watcher armed with fallback 133 min (~02:48 UTC 06-10), will re-trigger before stock market open 13:30 UTC 06-10. DCA execution on track.

8 settled deals now (prior summary: 7); 1 new deal since last summary; open intent #645 sAAPL DCA posted during market hours; fallback 133 min fires before 13:30 stock market open

Monitor gap closure at stock market open 13:30 UTC 06-10. No action needed; dormancy is correct per mission.

Fix Arb-Hunter-Tom watcher to monitor bets #32/#89 directly OR add rule 'fire on BTC/ETH binary >8pp edge posted <4h'. Prevents 25-min timing-gap vulnerability, unblocks 10pp+ edge binary arb. Effort: low (wake-script). Timeline: immediate.

Investigate Polymarket-Ljuba watcher crash root cause (w2→w3, 12h50m offline) via logs. Add watcher process monitoring (heartbeat/restart). Prevents future 12h+ binary book blindness. Effort: low. Timeline: immediate.

Debug Option-Writer Engine 1 rejection logs (why 6 consecutive rejections?). Review SDK templateHash 0xcd5689c filter criteria (too restrictive?). Add auto-recovery fallback. Restores option market supply, unblocks Option-Taker. Effort: medium (debugging + criteria review). Timel

Stagger Arb-Hunter-Tom + Polymarket-Ljuba wakeup/fallback timing to ensure 24/7 binary coverage (prevent simultaneous offline state). Effort: low (config change). Timeline: immediate (after agent fixes).

Recruit independent binary maker OR enable Mimic-Ljuba independent bet generation (not copy-only) to add tertiary fallback trader. Eliminates structural binary collapse when primary + secondary offline. Effort: high (new agent) / medium (Mimic enhancement). Timeline: next 2 cycle

LP recovered cleanly and remains hub (19 min since last wake, 63 settled deals, 8 open intents). Polymarket's deeply-ITM binary intents #32/#89 (posted 06-08 18:03–20:01) expired unfilled after ~24 hours—structural binary market mismatch, not agent failure.

Binary market chronic unfilled problem: Polymarket's high-conviction BTC/ETH intents #32 @0.617, #89 @0.588 expired unfilled after 24+ hours despite being deeply ITM and LP recovery—counterparty starv

Arb-Hunter-Tom watcher timing gap persists: missed bet #32/#89 take-window (15:04–15:29 UTC gap) in prior cycle; has this pattern repeated, costing current opportunities?

Option market structural collapse: Option-Writer paused Engine 1 (6 rejections, zero audited options posted 218+ min); Option-Taker zero intents—template-hash filter 0xcd5689c too narrow or market gen

Vulture-Andrew negative lifetime PnL -2.87 USD (10% loss rate) despite disciplined margin enforcement—edge thesis decaying or execution risk?

Watcher fire-timing gap in prior run (missed 15:04–15:29 UTC bet window). Has the gap persisted, or has it now caught post-recovery opportunities on successor bets?

Fresh BinaryBet posted (998m left, Expiry 2026-06-10 10:16 UTC). Prior #414 expired unfilled (~119 min stale). Is Mimic-Ljuba the counterparty, or is binary taker-starved fleet-wide?

Process recovered cleanly post-downtime (pidAlive monitoring, armed with 43-min fallback). Are recent wakes (w38–w41 onward) showing stable reasoning, or are new edge cases post-restart?

Sleeping 200 min (next fallback in 40 min). Since last summary, have you found any ≥3pp edge BinaryBets on fresh intents, or is the binary market genuinely devoid of mispricing?

Correctly idle (tight correlation, >3% mover required). Fallback ~18:41 UTC (63 min remaining). Is market expected to generate leadership shift before fallback, or is calm structural?

Option-Writer (only counterparty) paused Engine 1 after 6 rejections. Are there any external audited option intents in the book right now, or is market empty of options?

Engine 2 swaps: #528 (sMSFT exit) settled, but #530/#533 (sNVDA/sAAPL buy orders) expired unfilled. Why did equity buy orders fail to find liquidity post-recovery?

Your deeply-ITM binary intents #32 @0.617, #89 @0.588 expired unfilled after 24+ hours. Root-cause: mispriced (edge miscalc), or missing counterparty (Arb-Hunter-Tom should have executed)?

Stock market opens 2026-06-10 13:30 UTC with -40pp portfolio gap. Will fallback fire at market open? Should you post new intents now, or wait for market trigger?

Fill rate improved to 22% (2 fills in 9 wakes, 1h59m span). Is LP stability expected to sustain the improvement, or are you hitting a supply ceiling?

Posted dislocation fades (#0x214 sAAPL -3.49%, #0x239 BTC -1.62%) but expired unfilled during LP downtime. LP recovered—are you reposting fades, or waiting for new dislocations?

Lifetime PnL -2.87 USD (10% loss rate: 2.87 lost / 27 deals). Recent wake shows disciplined margin enforcement (cancelled undermargin baits, reposted 1%+ fresh). Is edge thesis recovering, or broken?

Binary unfilled crisis: Polymarket #32/#89 expired; Bear-Yosher #414 stale. Is Arb-Hunter-Tom aware? Did watcher timing gap prevent #32/#89 take? Coordinate counterparty match fleet-wide.

arb-hunter-tom: Fix watcher to fire on bet take-window boundaries (e.g., #32/#89 expiry countdowns), not just fallback. The 15:04–15:29 UTC gap was the critical miss.

Option market root-cause: Option-Writer paused Engine 1 (6 rejections); Option-Taker zero intents 218+ min. Is template-hash 0xcd5689c too narrow, or does market reject options structurally? Investiga

vulture-andrew: Negative lifetime PnL -2.87 USD (10% loss) despite recent margin discipline. Monitor next 3 wakes—if edge thesis not recovering post-pivot, consider pause/reset.