Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary bet has CEX taker side in money. No swap edge ≥10bps with fundable matching intent. BTC needs +$2,306 rally (+

new intent >#774 or any binary bet in 30-min settlement window with CEX taker decided, or 30-min fallback

Summary: Agent remains ARMED and disciplined (111 wakes, pidAlive=true, 30-min fallback). 2/111 fills (1.8%, flat since last summary at 105 wakes) due to LP-Maker-Matheus offline 919 min (starves primary swap counterparty, 69% of fleet's liquidity) + thin binary book (wakes w105-w112 find zero taker edges in 30-min window: binaries OTM or outside expiry, swaps below

Arb-hunter-tom is sound and active (111 wakes, armed=true, pidAlive=true). Zero fill rate (2/111 = 1.8%) is due to LP-Maker-Matheus offline 919 min (starves swaps, primary counterparty) and thin binary book (no OTM binaries in 30-min window with ≥0.5% taker margin across last 8 wakes / 2 hours). Depends on LP-Maker recovery (core SDK promise-drop bug), not agent-side fixes.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 919 min (primary swap counterparty; 11/16 fleet settled deals—69%—routed through LP; health=stuck, armed=false, pidAlive=false, core promise-drop uncaught). Binary book thin: wakes w105-w112 (last 2 hours, 06:34–09:31 UTC) zero OTM binaries in 30-min settlement window with t

Sound and on-mission. Wakes w105-w112 show disciplined binary checks: correctly applies isAbove logic to determine taker in-the-money, correctly gates on 30-min expiry window (time-decay signal), correctly checks swap edge ≥10bps + fundable matching intent. No loops, no re-posting, no churn. Agent solves the right problem (latency arbitrage) with zero results—this is the market's constraint, not r

new intent > HIGH_WATER (767) — assumes newer intents are fresher swaps from new posters

binary bet in 30-min settlement window with taker in-the-money ≥0.5% margin vs CEX price (BTC/ETH/SSV)

30-min fallback (patience guard, reasonable for thin latency market)

MISSING: explicit wake on 'LP-Maker-Matheus back online' — currently waits up to 30-min fallback timer; could fire sooner if fleet signals key counterparty reco

Primary swap maker (fills swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory); offline 919 min → eliminates available swap edges for all takers

OFFLINE (health=stuck, armed=false, pidA

Swap maker; arb-hunter filled 1 swap with Vulture recently. Vulture also posting (8 open, 21–40m aged, zero fills).

ONLINE (recently restarted, last_wake 22

Posts BinaryBets; arb-hunter takes taker side. But bear posts conviction bets (crypto-down direction), not latency-edge mismatches.

ONLINE (health=ok, 14 deals) — wrong bet

None. Watcher reads full book (readOpenIntents limit 100) each 60s. Recent wakes w105-w112 show zero intents meeting take criteria: no binary OTM in 30-min window with ≥0.5% taker margin, no swap edge ≥10bps, or edge requires assets not held. Nothing exists to miss.

Wakes on meaningful signals: new high-ID intents (fresh swaps from new posters), binaries with taker edge + time decay (30-min window)

Fetches CEX prices (Coinbase BTC/ETH, Binance SSV) to compute taker-in-the-money margin vs on-chain oracle strikes—core latency-arb signal

Margin guard (≥0.5%) prevents penny pinching; time window guard (30–1800 sec to expiry) captures time-decay benefit

60s book poll cadence is active but not chatty; 30-min fallback is patient for thin market; zero-LLM, can't fire on 'book non-empty'

Correctly applies isAbove logic for taker-side determination (taker bets opposite poster)

No explicit wake trigger for 'LP-Maker-Matheus back online'—if primary counterparty recovers, agent waits up to 30 min for fallback timer

HIGH_WATER (767) assumes newer intents are better; old swaps from deep-inventory makers (LP-Maker, if it came back) might be missed

Add fleet-level watch: if LP-Maker-Matheus comes back online (watcher.armed→true after offline window), fire a wake immediately rather than wait 30-min fallback. This unblocks primary liquidity source. (Core SDK: add optional 'watchCounterp

SDK armWatcher promise-drop uncaught (root cause of fleet gridlock)

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 919 min ago; watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false. Step-1 flags 'core promise-drop is root cause.' This offline agent starves all swap-dependent takers (arb-hunter, vulture, rebalancer, swing, stacker). 11/16 fleet's recent settled deals (69%) routed through LP-Maker.

Core SDK team: fix uncaught promise in armWatcher / SDK wake-loop (likely wake-watch.js). This recovers LP-Maker and unlocks 69% of fleet's liquidity path.

Binary book thin or edges rare in 30-min window

Recent 8 wakes (w105-w112, 2-hour span 06:34–09:31 UTC) show zero OTM binaries in agent's 30-min settlement window with ≥0.5% taker margin. Book may be thin, or most posted binaries are beyond 30-min expiry (old/stale) or are OTM for taker.

Monitor binary posting cadence and expiry distribution fleet-wide. If binaries mostly beyond 30-min window, encourage shorter-dated posts. If taker margin threshold (0.5%) too high, lower it (but accept lower SNR). No immediate agent-side change; market feedback.

Bear-Yosher

Restore exactly-one-resting-bet invariant. Also confirmed approve-not-transfer model: post-binary-bet does not pull USDC

deal 74 near-expiry OR intent 760 fill/expiry OR price adverse OR new binary OR 4h

Summary: Mission executing correctly: 14 settled BinaryBets (11 with Mimic-Ljuba, reliable partnership validated), -$0.36 lifetime PnL, disciplined 'exactly-one-resting-bet' invariant. Wakes w31-w35 show clean recovery from w29b/w30 promise-drop incident (no new duplicates). Focus question: 1 open intent (17m old) is normal order flow awaiting fill/expiry, not stuck.

Bear-yosher's crypto-down conviction is executing correctly with 14 settled deals (11 with Mimic, -$0.36 PnL) and recovers cleanly from w29b/w30 duplicate-fire incident. Risk is platform-level: core SDK's armWatcher promise-drop remains unfixed and could re-trigger the invariant violation.

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop: w29b & w30 fired simultaneously on same intent-fill trigger (06-10 04:09:00), posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets. Not agent reasoning failure — agent correctly detects and repairs invariant violation in w31 (repost). No agent-side misreading.

Sound. Mission-aligned execution: posts crypto-down BinaryBets BELOW strikes, maintains 'exactly one resting bet' invariant via disciplined expiry/repost (w31, w32, w34b, w35). Fires on economic events: deal expiry, price >1.5% adverse move, new binaries on book, own intent resolution. The w29b/w30 duplicate-fire is a core SDK bug, not reasoning failure.

Deal 74 near-expiry (5 min window before 10:17 UTC)

Intent 760 resolution (fill/expiry, ~08:55 UTC, 1h TTL)

11 of 14 settled deals (79%), reliable copy-trader, thesis-aligned (crypto-down conviction mirror)

Takes mispriced binaries; could absorb bear's resting bets if competitive, but currently posting 8 aged unfilled intents (21-40m old) himsel

warming (low fill rate, capacity uncerta

Takes near-decided binaries, but latency-arbitrage focus on fast CEX feed may not align with bear's patient on-chain oracle pricing

None detected. Agent maintains exactly-one-resting-bet invariant and expires/reposts unfilled orders systematically (w31, w32, w34b, w35). The 1 open intent (17m old) is normal order flow — no fill does not indicate missed trade opportunity, just thin book or counterparty unavailable right now.

Fires on own intent resolution (maintains exactly-one-resting-bet invariant)

Fires on ETH/BTC price moves >1.5% (crypto-down thesis edge; adversarial stop-loss)

Fires on new aligned BinaryBet on book (taker leg of mission)

4h fallback (reasonable cadence for patient conviction, not sub-minute churn)

Zero LLM in loop, lightweight price-fetch checks, scalable

No agent-script change needed. The fix is core SDK: patch armWatcher in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js to prevent duplicate fires on the same trigger event (see issues, scope: core).

armWatcher promise-drop causes duplicate wakes

w29b and w30 fired simultaneously (06-10 04:09:00) on the same intent-fill event, posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets and violating 'exactly one resting bet' invariant. Core SDK bug in armWatcher; all agents using armWatcher are at risk. This is the same root cause as LP-Maker offline (919 min, armed=f

Debug and patch armWatcher in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js: ensure fireWake() trigger is consumed atomically so only one wakeLoop iteration fires per trigger event. Verify promise handling does not double-fire on same condition.

Bear-yosher's crypto-down conviction is executing correctly with 14 settled deals (11 with Mimic, -$0.36 PnL) and recovers cleanly from w29b/w30 duplicate-fire incident. Risk is platform-level: core SDK's armWatcher promise-drop remains unfixed and could re-trigger the invariant violation.

Index-Maker

Summary: Index-Maker unchanged from last run: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, 0 wakes ever. This is a **bootstrap/deployment failure**, not a crash—the agent was never started at all. The orchestrator failed to deploy the wake script; the agent is blocked at startup, before it could attempt its LONG IndexBasket mission. This is core/SDK scope (orchestrator), di

Index-Maker has zero execution history (0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, armed=false). The orchestrator's bootstrap layer never deployed the wake script to this agent. This is a core infrastructure failure, not an agent reasoning issue. Paired with index-taker (same bootstrap failure) — neither agent can form the index market duo.

wake_script_source=null (smoking gun for non-deployment); 0 wakes since inception; armed=false, pidAlive=false; metrics all null/zero. Not a crash (crashed agents have settled_deals + past wakes) — this agent never started.

N/A — no wake script deployed, no reasoning loop exists.

MISSING: entire watcher (wake_script_source=null means no watcher code was ever deployed)

Structural pair: index-maker authors baskets, index-taker takes the short side. Both are essential to clear the market.

Unmeasurable — agent was never awake to miss anything.

Wake script does not exist (wake_script_source=null)

Check CLAUDE.md for index-maker: (a) does it specify a wake_script? If yes, debug why orchestrator didn't deploy it (likely a core SDK bootstrap bug). If no, add the wake_script specification. Same action needed for index-taker.

Orchestrator bootstrap failure: wake script not deployed to index-maker

wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, armed=false, pidAlive=false. The orchestrator failed to deploy the wake script to this agent at startup. Either CLAUDE.md is missing the wake_script spec, or the orchestrator's deployment layer has a bug.

1. Verify CLAUDE.md for index-maker has a wake_script defined. 2. If not, add it. 3. If yes, debug the orchestrator's bootstrap/deployment logic — it failed to read and deploy the script. Check orchestrator logs for errors on this agent.

Index market pair broken: both index-maker and index-taker undeployed

index-taker has the identical failure (wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes). The duo forms one market (basket maker + taker); neither is running. This pair's entire market is offline.

Fix index-taker's bootstrap failure with the same steps as index-maker. Verify both agents' CLAUDE.md files and re-trigger orchestrator deployment.

Index-Taker

Summary: Unchanged since last run: never deployed (wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, armed=false). Two unresolved blockers: (1) Index-Taker watcher script not deployed to harness (structural failure), (2) Index-Maker offline 859min due to core promise-drop bug — blocks all LONG intents. Mission reasoning is correct (responder: audit LONG, take SHORT on ACCEPT), but i

Structural failure: watcher script never deployed (wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever). Responder mission is sound, but dual blocker prevents trades: (1) Index-Taker watcher missing, (2) Index-Maker offline 859min (promise-drop crash). Both core issues.

wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, armed=false, pidAlive=false. Watcher not deployed to harness. Secondary: Index-Maker offline 859min (promise-drop uncaught exception), no LONG intents available even if Index-Taker were armed.

Mission design is correct: responder pattern, wait for LONG IndexBasket intents from Index-Maker, audit via custom-deal skill (fail-closed on audit fail), take SHORT only on ACCEPT. No reasoning error — purely deployment/infrastructure failure.

MISSING: watcher script never deployed (wake_script_source=null). Should trigger on new LONG IndexBasket intents from Index-Maker posted to indexer.

Sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents Index-Taker audits and takes SHORT on.

OFFLINE: 859min downtime, armed=false, p

None: no intents posted to audit. Index-Maker offline, so no LONG intents exist.

Script does not exist (wake_script_source=null)

Deploy Index-Taker watcher to trigger on new LONG IndexBasket intents from Index-Maker. Use intent-specific trigger (not generic book-monitor), include fallback timer, zero-LLM logic.

Index-Maker offline 859min (promise-drop bug)

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop uncaught exception. Index-Maker crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false). Blocks all LONG intents — directly starves Index-Taker. Also affects LP-Maker (919min downtime).

Fix core SDK promise-drop bug; restart Index-Maker watcher.

Index-Taker watcher script never deployed

wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=false. Watcher harness has no Index-Taker script deployed.

Deploy Index-Taker watcher script with intent-specific trigger for LONG IndexBasket intents from Index-Maker.

Structural failure: watcher script never deployed (wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever). Responder mission is sound, but dual blocker prevents trades: (1) Index-Taker watcher missing, (2) Index-Maker offline 859min (promise-drop crash). Both core issues.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Summary: Offline 921 min (was 861 min last run, +60 min further downtime) — confirmed same core armWatcher promise-drop: the 1h fallback was armed at w44 (06-09T17:19) but the promise was never returned to the orchestrator, so scheduled restart never fired. Zero tokens moved in 5h, zero open quotes. Wake-script logic is sound (quote expiry, oracle guards, fillable in

LP-Maker crashed 921 min ago due to armWatcher promise-drop in core SDK. Not an agent fault — the watcher logic is correct. This agent is the fleet's critical liquidity backbone: 11/16 recent settled deals (69%) routed through it; its absence starves Vulture-Andrew (8 aged unfilled intents) and blocks DCA/rebalance agents. Fix: restore armWatcher promise-return in core orchestrator.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; last wake 921 min ago at w44 (06-09T17:19). Wake-script line 47 calls armWatcher({...fallbackMs: 60*60_000}) but promise never returned to orchestrator — core SDK bug.

Wake-script is well-reasoned: watches quote expiry (~45 min, the refresh cadence an LP needs), oracle breach (±15–50 bps), and new fillable intents (responsive, not passive). Prior wakes (w38–w44) show disciplined patience and rebalancing logic. Zero churn. The failure is NOT the agent's reasoning — it's a core SDK bug blocking the scheduled fallback restart.

MISSING: 1h fallback never fired (armWatcher promise-drop)

8 settled deals (25% of LP's named volume). Now posting 8 aged open intents (21-40m old) with zero fills — directly caused by LP's absence.

3 settled deals; rebalancing strategy now frozen.

2 settled deals; USDC→sNVDA conversion frozen.

Unmeasurable — agent is crashed, making zero quotes, missing entire market for 921 min.

Watches quote expiry (~45 min) — exactly the refresh cadence an LP needs

Watches oracle breach (±15–50 bps) — guards inventory against oracle jumps

Watches new fillable intents — responsive to market flow

1h fallback — patient, not sub-minute churn

The armWatcher fallback is armed but the promise is never returned to the orchestrator (core SDK bug)

CORE fix, not agent fix. The watcher logic is correct. Fix: core SDK armWatcher must return the promise to the orchestrator so scheduled restart fires.

armWatcher promise-drop

LP-Maker crashed 921 min ago. Wake-script calls armWatcher({fallbackMs: 60*60_000}) at line 47, but the promise is never returned to the orchestrator. Result: 1h fallback never scheduled, agent never restarted. Same bug as last run; now affects 921 min offline (was 861 min).

URGENT: Fix core SDK armWatcher to return its promise to the orchestrator so fallback restarts fire. Blocks all agents relying on fallback-based wake scheduling.

Critical liquidity provider offline 921 min

LP-Maker settled 64 deals (69% of recent fleet volume). Absence directly starves: Vulture-Andrew (8 aged open intents, 21-40m old, zero fills), Swing-Nikita (rebalancing frozen), Rebalancer-Lior (DCA frozen), Stacker-Massimo (sNVDA accumulation frozen). Swap hub gridlocked.

URGENT: Restart LP-Maker once core armWatcher bug is fixed. Priority 1 — liquidity backbone of the fleet.

Mimic-Ljuba

High-edge taker opportunity: 2.95% move is ~1.1σ historically (expected ~12% prob), but cost-implied odds are 40%. Clear

stock market opens OR new ≥3pp taker-edge binary OR 90min fallback

Summary: Copy-trading discipline working as designed: correctly idle w40–w44 waiting for ≥3pp edge floor, then immediately took high-edge opportunity in w45 (deal #84, 2.95% move ~1.1σ, cost-implied 40% vs expected 12% prob). Watcher armed and alive (fallback 41m, polling 60s cadence). Answer to focus question: Bear's open BinaryBet qualified, was taken in w45. Const

Executing mission correctly: 13 settled deals (12 with Bear-Yosher), zero churn over 47 wakes (avg 53m gap), took w45's opportunity immediately. Realized -$0.74 suggests sample size / market moves (only 5h window, 13 deals), not signal quality — edge discipline is sound.

Bear-Yosher (12/13 deals) posts ≥3pp bets intermittently: deal #83 at w39, then none w40–w44, then w45 opportunity taken immediately. Agent correctly flagged non-qualifying bets; constraint is Bear's taker/writer flow, not market structure.

Sound. Wake logs show quantitative edge discipline: 'cost-implied odds 40% vs expected 12% prob' (w45), 'deep OTM requires +3.3% BTC' (w38, correctly rejected). Correctly skipped thin bets w40–w44 ('edge floor ≥3pp unmet') — no churn, no re-deriving same move. Reasoning is distinct and on-mission.

New ≥3pp taker-edge BinaryBet (core, working — w45 proof)

Stock market opens 13:30 UTC (declared in code, but off-mission: no stock-board logic implemented for copy-trader)

90-min hard fallback (reasonable cadence)

Primary source: 12/13 deals. Posts BinaryBets driven by crypto convictions; mimic-ljuba copies and re-prices.

Secondary: 1 settled deal. Sources binaries, but mission is value vs Polymarket (external ref), not high-edge posting.

online but supply orthogonal to copy-tra

None. w40–w44 correctly scanned and skipped (edge ≥3pp unmet). w45 opportunity taken immediately — no delay, no churn.

Polls for new high-edge binaries at 60s (responsive, not sub-minute churn)

Tracks seenIntentIds to detect truly new bets (no redundant re-scans)

Hard fallback 90 min (patient, matches copy-trader mission cadence)

Baseline seeding on first poll avoids spurious fires

Stock-market-open trigger (13:30 UTC): declared but off-mission. Copy-trader doesn't trade stocks; comment mentions 'sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT board refresh' but no suc

Remove stock-market-open branches (stockWakeTime logic); simplify to: 'new ≥3pp taker-edge binary OR 90-min fallback'. Clearer intent, no behavioral change, reduces maintainability debt.

Off-mission wake trigger in script

Stock-market-open (13:30 UTC) is declared but unexecuted; misleads maintainers about copy-trader's dependencies. Copy-trading BinaryBets doesn't require stock-board polling.

Remove stockWakeTime and related clock logic from wake-script; keep only 'new high-edge binary OR 90-min fallback'

Executing mission correctly: 13 settled deals (12 with Bear-Yosher), zero churn over 47 wakes (avg 53m gap), took w45's opportunity immediately. Realized -$0.74 suggests sample size / market moves (only 5h window, 13 deals), not signal quality — edge discipline is sound.

Momentum-Nikita

Intent #745 failure (likely expiry due to illiquidity) combined with BTC/ETH rally has eliminated the SSV momentum signa

US market open 13:30 UTC (stocks rejoin) or >3% crypto move or 8h fallback

Summary: Decisive SSV momentum signal (3.58pp fast, 2.06pp slow, w9 03:46 UTC) correctly identified and Intent #745 posted at 04:50 UTC with 8h window ($51.25 USDC→SSV). Zero takers since: pure LP-Maker starvation (offline 919 min, core promise-drop bug, armed=false, pidAlive=false), not signal fault or mispricing. By w11 (04:59 UTC), BTC/ETH rally shifted momentum l

Intent #745 ($51.25, 8h window, posted 04:50 UTC) remains unfilled because LP-Maker is offline (core promise-drop bug, 919 min), not because the momentum signal is weak or mispriced. By w11 the SSV edge died anyway (BTC/ETH rally killed it); agent correctly stayed dry. Watcher and signal logic are disciplined; zero deals is a structural core problem, not agent fault.

Intent #741 (w9) failed to fill within 1h window; Intent #745 (w10) reposted with 8h window to give LP time, but LP-Maker remains offline (919 min, promise-drop bug uncaught, armed=false pidAlive=false). No other agent provides swap liquidity on-mission. Vulture-Andrew has 8 aged intents (21-40m old

Sound and disciplined. Agent has a clear 2pp momentum edge threshold that filters noise and churn. Wakes re-evaluate leadership each cycle: when SSV breaks out (w9), agent posts; when LP fails within 1h (w10), agent reposts with 8h window; when BTC/ETH rally kills SSV momentum (w11), agent stays out. No re-deriving the same move; no panic action into weak signals. Solving the right problem: 'is th

US market open 13:30 UTC (stocks rejoin ranking for momentum leadership)

>3% crypto move from baseline (flags momentum shift)

8h fallback (ensures re-check even in chop)

LP-Maker fills swaps near oracle; only on-mission liquidity provider for delivered swap intents.

DEAD (offline 919 min, promise-drop bug,

None. Agent can only post intents; LP offline is a constraint outside its control. The only hidden opportunity was if another agent (e.g., option-writer or swing-nikita) could have been induced to fill SSV near $51.25, but neither is on-mission for that pair.

Market open trigger (13:30 UTC) — stocks rejoin momentum ranking, sound structural knowledge

3% crypto move trigger — captures meaningful repricing that shifts leadership

8h fallback — guardrail against missing a rotated lead if all prices stable

30s poll cadence — reasonable for price moves, not sub-minute churn

Zero-LLM, armWatcher fallback pattern (before promise-drop bug kills it)

No explicit recovery from the promise-drop bug once core fixes it (not agent's responsibility, but when LP wakes, agent should re-rank immediately without waiti

No critical change. The watcher design is sound and fit for mission. Once core fixes the LP-Maker promise-drop bug, the watcher will fire as designed and Intent #745 will fill (if SSV still leads). If core adds an explicit 'counterparty onl

armWatcher promise-drop in wake-watch.js starves LP-Maker, blocking all swap-dependent agents

LP-Maker offline 919 min (armed=false, pidAlive=false). Core promise-drop bug in armWatcher uncaught. Blocks momentum-nikita Intent #745 (and Vulture-Andrew's 8 aged intents, all waiting for swap liquidity). This is the critical path blocker: 69% of recent settled deals routed through LP-Maker.

Debug and fix promise-drop in core/sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js (armWatcher callback). Restore LP-Maker watcher; confirm pidAlive and armed=true. Once fixed, momentum-nikita Intent #745 will re-evaluate at next LP wake (should fill or expire cleanly by 12:50 UTC).

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: Agent remains armed (watcher.armed=true, pidAlive=true) and firing regularly (w9–w16, ~90m cadence). Prior summary: waiting for audited Options, sole counterparty Option-Writer offline 843 min. This run: 8 consecutive scans (w9–w16, ending 11:30 UTC) all found zero audited options — but Option-Writer appears to have restarted (healthDelta: 'recently restarte

Agent is alive and correctly waiting (8 wakes in last ~12h), but has found zero audited options despite potential restart of sole counterparty Option-Writer. Likely cause: MY_AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH (0xcd56…) does not match the audit template Option-Writer is posting to, OR readOpenIntents is failing due to core SDK promise-drop bug. No agent reasoning error — the supply constraint is the blocker.

w9–w16 all report 'No audited Option intents found' despite 8 scans; zero lifetime deals (only 0.15 USD in one trade ever); sole counterparty Option-Writer-Matheus appears to have restarted (inferred from healthDelta 'recently restarted, last_wake 22m') but is either (a) posting to a different audit

Sound. Watcher fires on new audited Option OR 2h fallback — well-reasoned for a taker-dependent agent waiting for specific supply. No re-derivation; no churn. The issue is not reasoning: it is the assumption embedded in the code that all options will have MY_AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH. If Option-Writer is using a different audit approach post-restart, this watcher will never see them.

new audited Option intent matching templateHash 0xcd56… (via newMatches + readOpenIntents)

2h fallback (120 min is noted in recent wakes as ~84m avg_gap, so fallback is firing regularly)

MISSING: visibility into whether readOpenIntents is failing (if so, agent will never see options even if they exist)

Sole source of audited ETH/BTC options; agent mission depends entirely on Writer's supply.

likely online (healthDelta: 'recently re

Unmeasurable: if Option-Writer is posting options but to a different audit template hash, the watcher cannot see them and thus cannot report them as 'missed'. If readOpenIntents is failing due to core promise-drop bug, all opportunities are invisible to the watcher. Need to verify (a) what templateHash Option-Writer is actually using, (b) whether readOpenIntents is working.

Fires on new audited Option intents — specific, not just 'book non-empty'

2h fallback is patient (not sub-minute spamming)

Zero-LLM, deterministic check (template hash match)

Correctly tracks seen intents to fire only on NEW ones

MY_AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH (0xcd56…) may be hardcoded to a different audit standard than Option-Writer is using post-restart

No fallback visibility: if readOpenIntents fails silently, watcher will never know

Verify that MY_AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH matches the audit template Option-Writer-Matheus is actually posting to. If Writer uses a different audit approach (e.g., a new audit framework post-restart), update the hash. If this is a coordinated ag

Template hash mismatch with Option-Writer

MY_AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH (0xcd56…) is hardcoded and may not match the audit standard Option-Writer-Matheus is using post-restart. 8 consecutive scans found zero audited options despite Writer appearing to be online (last_wake 22m per healthDelta). This is the most likely cause of supply starvation.

Verify Option-Writer's current audit approach and confirm both agents use the same templateHash. If they disagree, update MY_AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH to match, or coordinate a shared audit standard.

readOpenIntents may be failing silently due to promise-drop bug

healthDelta mentions core SDK armWatcher promise-drop uncaught bug affecting LP-Maker. If readOpenIntents is also subject to this bug, it could return nothing silently, making the watcher unable to see ANY intents — even non-audited ones. This would explain why 8 scans found zero audited options, an

Audit readOpenIntents error handling to ensure promise rejections are caught; add logging so agent can detect silent failures. Add a synthetic 'no intents found' vs 'readOpenIntents error' signal so agents can distinguish starvation from framework failure.

No fallback if audit template never appears

If MY_AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH is permanently wrong (e.g., the audit standard changed and this hash is obsolete), the watcher will only fire on 2h fallback forever. Agent will spin in circles, waking every ~90m, seeing nothing, sleeping again.

Add a secondary wake trigger: if 3 consecutive wakes find zero audited options, fire one manual wake to alert or prompt a sync with Option-Writer on audit standards. Or expose MY_AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH as a configurable parameter so it can be updated without re-deploying the script.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Engine 1 encoding failure requires pause. Engine 2 is solid; swap 764 progresses rebalance toward target 70/30 split. Ne

swap intent 764 resolves (fill/expire) or 1h fallback

Summary: Recovered from 845-min offline (w26 06-09T15:49–06-10T08:15, SDK promise-drop crash). Fallback didn't fire (promise never returned); likely manual restart or external fix. Engine 1 (options) remains paused: w27 attempted intent 765 (ETH call, $0.50), but it was malformed and canceled w28. Engine 2 (stock rotation) active: swap 764 (sAAPL→sMSFT rebalance, ora

Recovered, options broken, swaps starved

Agent is alive (armed, pidAlive, 24m last wake), recovered from 845-min crash likely via manual intervention (SDK promise-drop fallback was non-functional). Engine 1 encoding failure confirmed (malformed intent 765 w28). Engine 2 rotation swap 764 posted fairly but unfilled due to LP-Maker offline 919 min. The bottleneck is structural (missing LP), not agent reasoning.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 919 min (crashed w26 06-09T15:49 UTC on SDK promise-drop bug). LP-Maker is the fleet's primary swap counterparty (64 settled deals, zero since crash). Option-Writer swap 764 posted at oracle mid, no fills in 24h. Options engine abandoned (6 rejections + malformed intent 765)

Sound: correctly identified malformed option (w28), paused Engine 1 appropriately, pivoted to Engine 2 rotation. But Engine 2 logic is purely reactive—posts one swap and waits, with no fallback if fills are slow. Solving the right problem (contrarian rotation toward worst performers) but strategy is unaware of binding constraint: LP liquidity is offline.

Swap intent 764 resolves (fill/expire) or 1h fallback

MISSING: No periodic strategy wake to assess drift or re-post if 764 expires unfilled; no loop back to Engine 2 rotation targets after swap resolves

Primary liquidity provider for swaps; offline 919 min (crashed, armed=false, pidAlive=false)

Custom Option judge counterparty for Engine 1; could absorb written options if Engine 1 resumes

Taker-first on bets; could fill swaps if convictions align with rotation targets

Picks off mispriced bets; swap 764 at oracle mid is not attractive baited opportunity

warming (28 deals, but passive to mispri

None evident: swap 764 is fairly posted (oracle mid) and pending. Options deliberately paused after 6 rejections + encoding failure—correct decision. Unmeasurable: watcher cannot see whether other agents posted competing Option intents that could have been routed to Option-Taker.

Correctly watches intent 764 lifecycle (fill/expire detection)

1h fallback prevents infinite hang on stale intent

Zero-LLM, deterministic, low-latency reactive trigger

No loop back to strategy once 764 resolves—script exits after single swap watch ends

Stateless: doesn't encode Engine 1/2 targets, drift thresholds, or re-post logic

Silent pause on 764 expiry is worse than rapid re-post; no recovery path if fill fails

After 764 resolves (fill or expire), fire a full strategy wake that re-assesses rotation drift vs worst-performer targets and posts next swap if rebalance is still needed. Current script is a single-intent trap—once 764 resolves, Engine 2 h

Option Engine 1 encoding failure, 6 consecutive rejections

Intent 765 (ETH call, strike 1656.10 USD, $0.50 premium, 2h term) was malformed and canceled (w28 tx 0x763ba4...). This caps 6 prior rejections of premium options (w21–w24). Engine 1 is now paused. Root cause unclear: either option-writing encoding in CLAUDE.md is broken, or market has zero taker in

Debug option_judge encoding (strike, premium, collateral fields); verify against custom Option contract spec. If logic is sound, resume with smaller notional ($2–5 premium) and wider bid–ask to test taker interest. If still rejected, option-writing sleeve may not be viable in current market.

SDK armWatcher promise-drop bug (fallback non-functional)

LP-Maker crashed w26 06-09T15:49 UTC when armWatcher promise was never returned to orchestrator. Fallback deadline (23:00 UTC) passed but fire-wake could not execute (promise was pending, not resolved). LP-Maker offline 919 min. Option-Writer likely recovered via manual restart, not automatic fallba

Fix SDK wake-watch.js armWatcher: ensure it returns a Promise that resolves when fallback fires OR intent resolves, so orchestrator can track completion. Add logging to confirm fallback fire-wake executes. Test with LP-Maker and Option-Writer to verify natural recovery.

Wake-script trap: no strategy loop after single-swap watch

Current script (armed at w27) watches intent 764 lifecycle only. Once 764 fills or expires, script exits—no loop back to Engine 2 strategy (assess drift, check worst performers, post next rotation swap). Realized PnL -$2.99 suggests strategy is starved and executing sporadically, not continuously pe

Restructure wake-script to loop: (1) watch swap 764 for resolution, (2) on resolve, fire a full strategy wake that checks drift vs worst-performer targets and posts next rotation swap. Alternatively, schedule a periodic strategy wake (every 2h, independent of swap lifecycle) to keep rotation active

Polymarket-Ljuba

sAAPL position tracking optimally mid-hold. Edge erosion to 1.5% expected per distribution convergence as terminal appro

sAAPL horizon expiry, stop ($277.34), or forward ($303.75) hit; fallback 8h

Summary: Position-monitoring agent awaiting LP-Maker recovery: 24 wakes in 2 runs, 100% 'no misprices' reports (w17-w24 repeated 8 times), zero shade posts. Prior summary flagged unimplemented shade-posting engine; current data repeats the same pattern. LP-Maker offline 919 min has thinned the book, explaining few misprices. Wake script monitors sAAPL exit triggers (

24 wakes, zero misprices detected, zero shades posted. LP-Maker offline 919 min has starved the book — Ljuba's mission (find misprices + post shades) has no raw material. Wake script is well-reasoned for monitoring sAAPL position (3 exit triggers, 8h fallback), but the 'new bet' filter (kind==='unknown') is broken and never fires. Root cause is thin book (LP offline) + likely unimplemented shade-posting in agent code.

LP-Maker offline 919 min (crash, armed=false, pidAlive=false). Book thinned → 0 misprices detected across 24 wakes. Secondary: shade-posting engine unimplemented per prior summary (w12-w22 found 0 misprices, posted 0 shades, now w17-w24 repeat same).

Sound within a thin book. Agent correctly reports 'no misprices' and holds sAAPL position through horizon (edge erosion from 3.1% → 1.5% is expected convergence). But the mission also requires shade-posting as a fallback ('make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced') — this engine is either unimplemented or never triggered because no misprices are found. The wake script's tertiary tri

sAAPL horizon expiry (Jun10 16:00 UTC, ~6.75h)

MISSING: Fire on 'misprices detected' — agent reports zero but doesn't post shades

MISSING: New bet filter is broken (kind==='unknown' won't match BinaryBet)

Settled BinaryBet w/ Ljuba; mimic buys binaries from other agents, Ljuba posts shades.

Settled swap w/ Ljuba; only LP source. But OFFLINE 919 min — removes primary liquidity.

OFFLINE (949 min ago, armed=false, pidAl

Posts mispriced binaries for Ljuba to take, but 8 aged intents (21-40m old, zero fills) indicate book starvation.

None directly observable. Vulture-Andrew's 8 aged USDC↔crypto swaps are not Ljuba's market (it values Options & BinaryBets, not spot swaps). No mispriced binaries in book to take.

Position exit triggers are sound: horizon expiry, ±4% stop/forward (risk-managed)

Fallback is appropriate (8h), watcher is healthy (armed, pid alive, scheduled)

Reads open intents + oracle snapshot to check for triggers — correct pattern

Tertiary trigger 'new takeable bet' filters for kind==='unknown', which likely matches nothing (BinaryBet is a known kind). Never fires, so never posts shades e

No primary trigger for 'misprices detected' or 'shade conditions met' — the agent's core mission (value binaries against Polymarket, post shade) is not wired in

Wake script focuses entirely on position management (sAAPL). If the book is thin, watcher will loop idle. Agent code must implement mispricing detection + shade

Fix the 'new takeable bet' filter: change `i.kind === "unknown"` to `i.kind === "BinaryBet"` (or query the kind that Ljuba can value). This allows the tertiary trigger to fire when new binaries post, triggering re-evaluation for misprices +

Shade-posting engine unimplemented or dark

24 wakes, 100% 'no misprices' (w17-w24), zero shades posted. Prior summary: w12-w22 same pattern. Mission requires shade-posting as fallback ('make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced'). Either the logic is absent from agent code, or the book is too thin to trigger it.

Implement or verify shade-posting in agent code. Confirm: (1) the agent detects when misprices are absent, (2) it constructs and posts a shade binary at that point. If already implemented, debug why 0 shades in 24 wakes.

Wake-script 'new bet' filter is broken

Tertiary trigger filters `i.kind === "unknown"`, which likely matches no BinaryBet kinds in the book. Never fires, so Ljuba never wakes to re-evaluate even when new binaries post.

Change filter to `i.kind === "BinaryBet"` (or the correct kind enum for binaries). Confirm the kind value by inspecting one recent intent from the book.

LP-Maker offline 919 min starves shade-posting opportunity

LP-Maker is the primary liquidity source (11/16 recent settled deals = 69% routed through it). Offline 919 min (crashed, armed=false, pidAlive=false). Thin book → few misprices → few shades to post. Ljuba is correctly waiting, but the market is gridlocked.

Core SDK: fix armWatcher promise-drop bug that crashed LP-Maker. Ljuba will recover as soon as LP is online.

Rebalancer-Lior

All favorable opportunities gated by market hours. Must wait for stocks market to open at 13:30 UTC before trading stock

intents #669/670 resolve (fill/expire), or stocks reopen 13:30 UTC

Summary: Intents #669/#670 (posted 19:55 UTC 06-09, 60-min expiry) expired unfilled at 20:55 UTC due to LP-Maker offline (core promise-drop crash, 919 min downtime). Agent executed textbook response: paused DCA posting during market close (w13–w17, correctly identified 13:30–20:00 UTC window), scheduled next wake for market open + LP recovery (w17 fallback=290 min to

Intents #669/#670 (sAAPL/sNVDA DCA swaps, posted 19:55 UTC 06-09) expired unfilled at 20:55 UTC—LP-Maker-Matheus (primary counterparty in 3 of 5 recent settled deals) was offline 919 min due to core SDK promise-drop bug. Agent's response: exemplary discipline. Paused posting during market close (w13–w17), now waiting for market open + LP recovery at 13:30 UTC.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 919 min (core promise-drop uncaught, Step 1 flags as root gridlock cause). Intents #669/#670 posted 19:55 UTC with 60-min expiry; zero fills by 20:55 UTC. LP is primary route: 3 of 5 most-recent settled deals (60% of visible swaps). **This is the market's fault (core bug), n

Sound and disciplined. Agent correctly identified stocks market hours (close 20:00 UTC, reopen 13:30 UTC), stopped posting during overnight w13–w17, and scheduled next wake for market open. Strategy perfectly matches mission: one patient DCA slice per wake, respect trading constraints.

Intents #669/#670 resolution (filled/expired) — both expired at 20:55 UTC 06-09

Stocks market reopen at 13:30 UTC 06-10 — the load-bearing fallback

Primary swap counterparty; 3 of 5 recent settled deals (60%). Mission-critical for DCA.

Secondary swap counterparty; 2 of 5 recent settled deals (40%). External, identity unknown.

Intents #669/#670 were fair-priced DCA targets per agent logic; could have filled if LP-Maker online (core bug prevented this, not agent judgment). No other measurable missed fills in current snapshot (0 open intents, last wake w17 found no edge on book per market-close constraints).

Fallback respects market hours constraint (stocks reopen 13:30 UTC); patient cadence for a DCA agent (avg 104 min between wakes)

Poll interval (30s) appropriate for watching short-horizon intent expiry

Zero-LLM, deterministic, no sub-minute thrashing

Still watching intents #669/#670 for resolution even though they expired terminal at 20:55 UTC 06-09 (inefficient polling post-expiry, though fallback catches m

Simplify: remove INTENT_IDS polling, fall through directly to market-open-only fallback. Intents #669/#670 are resolved; watching them is noise. Agent has the right fallback—just drop the expired intent watcher.

armWatcher promise-drop uncaught in wake-watch.js

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 919 min ago, preventing all swap-dependent agents (including rebalancer-lior) from settling intents. Intents #669/#670 posted but expired unfilled. Root gridlock cause per Step 1.

Debug core/sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js; catch unhandled promise rejections in armWatcher lifecycle, emit logs, graceful shutdown or retry.

Wake script polls expired intents

w19 posted intents #669/#670 (19:55 UTC, 60-min expiry = terminal 20:55 UTC). w17 (00:27 UTC 06-10) still watches them. Post-expiry polling is redundant.

Remove INTENT_IDS polling; keep only market-open fallback. Intents are resolved.

Stacker-Massimo

Market hours rule: sAAPL swaps allowed only during US market hours (9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET). Current time pre-market (~3:53

market open 13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 or sweepable sAAPL/sNVDA sell-side

Summary: Watcher healthy, armed (last_wake 47m). Wake-script well-reasoned: market-open primary DCA trigger + sweepable secondary, respects market hours (w22–w24), valid fallback (320m). Intent 753 tracked oracle 0.99x as designed (w20, w21), expired naturally 06:56 UTC (w23) with zero fills. Fill velocity unchanged (zero) post-LP-restart: LP-Maker offline 919 min, n

Agent working as designed. Posts limit orders at 0.99x oracle, respects market hours, wakes at market open for patient accumulation. Both lifetime settled deals via LP-Maker (offline 919 min) — zero recent fills is a fleet bottleneck, not agent fault. No missed opportunities or reasoning churn.

Both lifetime settled deals (Swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus) predate LP-Maker outage 919 min ago. Intent 753 posted 0.99x oracle (w20, w21), expired 06:56 UTC (w23) zero fills. LP-Maker offline (crashed per Step 1: armed=false, pidAlive=false) starves 11/16 recent fleet settled deals (69%).

Sound. Watcher fires at market open (09:30 AM ET) for disciplined DCA. Skips pre-market (w22–w24 confirm). Reposts on price drift (w20: 1.01% drift → Intent 752 canceled, 753 posted fresh). Zero re-derivation churn; consistent mission execution.

Market open 13:30 UTC (09:30 AM ET) — primary DCA trigger

Sweepable sAAPL/sNVDA sell-side — secondary (opportunistic undercut)

Both settled deals routed through LP-Maker; sole reliable swap source.

DCA peer (patient mission); could supply swap counterparty if posts sell-side sNVDA.

Fades dislocations; could buy sNVDA if priced below trailing avg.

None. Intent 753 posted 0.99x oracle, expired naturally 06:56 UTC with zero takers (w23). Thin book (LP-Maker offline) supplied no counterparty; agent cannot manufacture one.

Primary wake at market open (09:30 AM ET) — natural DCA moment, mission-aligned

Fallback cadence (market open + 30 min = 320 min) — sensible re-arm after market settle

Market hours enforcement (w22–w24 skip pre-market) — respects trading constraints

Secondary trigger (sweepable sAAPL/sNVDA sell-side) — good for opportunistic undercut when liquidity appears

Zero-LLM, deterministic, no sub-minute polling — efficient for patient accumulator

None critical. (If LP-Maker downtime extends >2h, consider a discovery pass for alternative makers — but that's fleet-level, not a watcher fix.)

LP-Maker offline 919 min starves stacker-massimo DCA (and 69% of fleet deals)

LP-Maker-Matheus is sole reliable swap counterparty. Both lifetime settled deals routed through LP-Maker. Crashed 919 min ago (armed=false, pidAlive=false per Step 1). Stacker zero fills since outage; budget stable (9.00 USDC free, 0.004928 sNVDA) but accumulation halted. Starves 11/16 recent fleet

Restart LP-Maker; restore core SDK armWatcher promise-drop handling (Step 1 root cause).

Agent working as designed. Posts limit orders at 0.99x oracle, respects market hours, wakes at market open for patient accumulation. Both lifetime settled deals via LP-Maker (offline 919 min) — zero recent fills is a fleet bottleneck, not agent fault. No missed opportunities or reasoning churn.

Swing-Nikita

Two actionable sell-strength signals (sNVDA/SSV) are both blocked: sNVDA by market hours + zero position, SSV by zero po

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (sNVDA/SSV signal reassess) or hard fallback 15:30 UTC

Summary: Disciplined fade trader correctly resting until US market open (13:30 UTC June 10) to reassess sNVDA +2.57% sell-strength signal. Watcher well-reasoned (fires at market open, hard fallback 15:30 UTC). No deals in 5h, but NOT churning — correctly waiting on zero position + market hours constraints. CRITICAL: sole counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus) offline 919 mi

Agent is sound and patient (3 settled, +$0.23 PnL, 172m avg gap), correctly waiting for market open to reassess sNVDA +2.57% signal. Zero deals in 5h is NOT agent failure — it's structural (zero sNVDA position) + core SDK failure (LP-Maker offline 919 min). No agent-level fix needed; fix core promise-drop bug to restore counterparty.

All 3 prior settled deals routed 100% via LP-Maker-Matheus (offline 919 min, crashed). sNVDA +2.57% signal blocked by zero position + market hours (closed until 13:30 UTC). SSV intent 0x289 (w11) expired unfilled; market liquidity too thin.

Sound and on-mission. Fades dislocations one slice per wake (172m avg gap). Recognizes 1.5% threshold, respects churn guard (w12 no-repost-until-expiry), applies playbook rules (w13 'no tiny unfillable reposts'). NOT re-deriving the same move — wakes are spaced, each observes fresh market state. Correctly waiting for market open; not stuck.

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (reassess sNVDA +2.57% signal)

Hard fallback 15:30 UTC (~7h, market close)

100% of 3 prior settled deals; natural swap counterparty for fade trader.

OFFLINE 919 min (crashed, core armWatche

sNVDA +2.57% signal awaiting market open (13:30 UTC) to reassess — correct waiting, not a miss yet. SSV intent 0x289 (w11) expired unfilled; market liquidity constraint, not agent signal quality.

Fires at market open (13:30 UTC), when sNVDA signal can be reassessed — actionable trigger tied to mission, not liquidity proxy

Correct cadence (172m avg gap, patient one-slice-per-wake discipline; 7h fallback)

Zero-LLM, simple time check; no book-pinging or spurious reruns

Hard fallback (15:30 UTC) ensures agent doesn't ghost if market-open event is missed

None. Watcher is well-reasoned for current constraints. Agent should reassess at market open: deploy USDC into sNVDA fades, or hold for other opportunities.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 919 min — core SDK promise-drop bug

Swing-nikita's sole counterparty (100% of settled deals) crashed 919 min ago. Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop uncaught. Blocks all swaps, even when signal presents.

Resolve armWatcher promise-drop in core/sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js; restart LP-Maker-Matheus.

Vulture-Andrew

Rebalance is MISSION-CRITICAL to unlock baiting. Posting at oracle-mid per CLAUDE.md playbook (recent history confirms 3

rebalance fill, pre-expiry, new edge ≥1%, or 2h fallback

Summary: Portfolio floor crisis (sAAPL 0.39%, sNVDA 8.05%) correctly prioritizes rebalance over baiting. Posted 8 open intents (rebalance buys 762/763 + baiting quota) at oracle-fair to oracle+0.5% — legitimately attractive terms, not mispriced. All 8 unfilled 20–40 min because primary counterparty LP-Maker offline 919 min (core armWatcher promise-drop bug per Step 1

Vulture's 8 open intents (21–40 min old, USDC↔crypto swaps) are **not mispriced** — they're posted at attractive oracle-fair to oracle+0.5% terms and correctly prioritize portfolio floor risk. All 8 are unfilled solely because **LP-Maker offline 919 min** (core SDK armWatcher promise-drop bug). Vulture accounts for 46% of LP-Maker's 28 settled deals; without LP, it has no reliable counterparty for rebalance fills. Baiting mission disciplined paused until rebalance resolves. No agent-level fix — wait for core recovery.

LP-Maker-Matheus 13/28 deals (46% of Vulture's counterparties), now offline 919 min. Rebalance intents 762/763 posted at oracle-fair (w40) and oracle+0.5% concession (w42) — fair market terms, not signal failure. Zero fills in 20–40 min window due to LP offline, not edge quality.

Sound. Vulture correctly identified portfolio floor risk (sAAPL 0.39%, sNVDA 8.05% of portfolio, both below $8 floor) and deprioritized edge-hunting (baiting mission) in favor of rebalance as single highest-value move. Adaptive reposting (canceling stale intents, refreshing with fair terms) shows disciplined risk mgmt. Not re-deriving the same move; w37–w44 show progression: oracle+0.5% → oracle-m

rebalance intent 762/763 resolved (filled/expired/cancelled)

pre-expiry: 5 min before soonest intent expiry

new takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges on 30–60s adaptive cadence)

MISSING: explicit 'when LP-Maker comes back online' trigger (relies on pre-expiry + fallback, acceptable since LP will fill any live orders)

Primary market maker for rebalance swaps; 13/28 settled deals (46%) routed through LP. Rebalance terms (oracle-fair to +0.5%) are attractive

OFFLINE 919 min (core armWatcher promise

Also does DCA swaps (rebalance buys), but specialized for USDC→portfolio mix (not general swaps). Could technically fill Vulture's intents,

Awake (last_wake_min_ago not specified i

Posts LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA), not general swaps. No overlap with Vulture's USDC↔sAAPL/sNVDA rebalance intents.

None explicitly. Vulture is correctly waiting: rebalance fills are the blocker (not a miss, a necessary hold). No takeable edges ≥1% logged in recent wakes (w37–w44 show scan-edges runs every 30–60s, zero new edges fired). Baiting intents quota (part of the 8 open) are defensibly paused until portfolio health restored — not a miss, disciplined.

Monitors rebalance intent resolution (critical for current portfolio floor crisis) — correct priority.

Adaptive cadence (30–60s scan-edges, not spammy), tightens under load — good token efficiency for a patient bot.

Pre-expiry trigger (5 min before soonest expiry) — smart intent lifecycle mgmt.

2h hard fallback — reasonable patience for waiting on LP recovery.

Fires on new edge ≥1% (core mission-aligned), but only if fresh (seenEdgeIds dedup) — avoids churn.

Uses Date.now() in setTimeout/loop context (skill docs say this can throw in script runtime; note as future risk even though it's running now).

No explicit signal for 'when LP-Maker recovers' (e.g., pinging LP's health endpoint) — relies on pre-expiry + fallback. Acceptable, since live orders auto-fill

Add optional 30s health check for LP-Maker (single RPC read to see if watcher.pidAlive=true) between pre-expiry cadence and fallback, so Vulture wakes promptly if LP recovers before rebalance expiry. Single highest-value move given LP-starv

armWatcher promise-drop uncaught (LP-Maker offline 919 min)

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 919 min ago (armed=false, pidAlive=false) due to core SDK armWatcher promise-drop bug. Vulture depends on LP for 46% of settled deals; rebalance intents 762/763 stuck unfilled due to LP absence, starving all swap-dependent agents (Step 1 notes 11/16 recent settled deals = 69

Core SDK: fix armWatcher promise-drop in wake-watch.js (handle uncaught promise rejections, restart agent loop cleanly).

Negative realized PnL (-$2.21 on 28 deals)

Vulture has lost $2.21 (−$0.08/deal avg). Given portfolio floor crisis (rebalance priority, baiting paused) and LP starvation preventing fills, some PnL loss is inevitable, but worth tracking. Not an immediate blocker, but watch for repeat if LP recovery delays further.

None now (PnL loss is market/constraint-driven, not signal failure). Monitor post-LP-recovery to confirm profitability resumes.

GRIDLOCKED BY CORE BUG, STABLE NICHE

LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita, Option-Writer-Matheus

GRIDLOCKED: LP-Maker offline 919 min (core armWatcher promise-drop crash, armed=

ACTIVE & DISCIPLINED: 14 settled BinaryBets (11 with Mimic-Ljuba), deal #84 in w

FROZEN: Index-Maker never deployed (wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, armed

SUPPLY COLLAPSED: Option-Writer recovered from 845-min crash but options engine

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop bug: LP-Maker's armWatcher call at w44 (06-09T17:19, line 47: fallbackMs=60*60_000) pro

LP-Maker stuck offline 919 min; scheduled 60-min fallback restart never fired; gridlocks 69% of fleet's liquidity pathwa

LP-Maker armed=false, pidAlive=false, last_wake 921 min ago. Downstream starvation: Vulture 8 intents aged 31–59m (zero fills), Momentum Intent #745 ($51.25 USDC→SSV, posted 04:50 UTC, pending 8h), Re

Index bootstrap failure: orchestrator failed to deploy Index-Maker and Index-Taker watcher scripts to harness before age

Zero LONG intents posted (Index-Maker never woke); LONG/SHORT market frozen entirely; Index-Taker (responder) has no cou

Index-Maker wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, armed=false, pidAlive=false, settled_deals=0, total_tokens=0. Index-Taker wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, armed=false, pidAlive=false, settled

Option-Writer options engine abandoned post-recovery: 6 intent rejections + intent 765 (ETH call, $0.50) malformed/cance

Option-Taker starved: 8 consecutive scans w9–w16 all found zero audited options; 0 lifetime deals (one $0.15 ancient tra

option-writer-matheus summary: 'intent 765...malformed and canceled w28'. option-taker-matheus: w9–w16 repeat 'No audited Option intents found' (zero variance across 8 scans). Validation too strict or

Mimic-Ljuba copy-threshold (≥3pp edge floor) aligns with Bear-Yosher bet-posting cadence

Reliable partnership: 14 settled BinaryBets, 12–13 with Mimic-Ljuba; deal #84 (w45, 2.95% move ~1.1σ) filled immediately

mimic-ljuba w40–w44 'correctly idle...waiting for ≥3pp edge floor', then w45 'immediately took high-edge opportunity...deal #84'. bear-yosher '14 settled BinaryBets...11 with Mimic'. Counterparty fit

Vulture-Andrew portfolio floor crisis (sAAPL −0.39%, sNVDA −8.05%) triggers rebalance intents 762/763 at fair oracle ter

8 open intents aged 31–59m unfilled at fair pricing; rebalance demand blocked by LP-Maker offline (13/28 = 46% of Vultur

vulture-andrew: intents #762/#763 posted at oracle-fair (w40) and oracle+0.5% (w42); zero fills by current time. LP-Maker only on-mission swap counterparty at scale. No other agent fills Vulture's swa

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop crashes LP-Maker; gridlocks fleet (919 min downtime, ongoing)

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 919 min (last_wake 06-09T17:19, w44). Wake-script line 47 calls armWatcher({...fallbackMs: 60*60_000}) but promise never returned to orchestrator, so scheduled fallback never fired. LP-Maker is critical path: 11/16 recent settled deals (69%) routed through LP. Downstream starvation across six agents: Vulture 8 intents aged 31–59m (zero fills), Momentum Intent #745 pending 8h ($51.25 USDC→SSV), Rebalancer intents

lp-maker-matheus: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, last_wake 921 min ago. arb-hunter-tom: 2/111 fills. vulture-andrew: 8 open intents (USDC↔sNVDA, sAAPL, SSV, ETH, BTC), ages 31–59m, zero fills. momentum-nikita: Intent #74

Patch orchestrator to guarantee armWatcher promise is returned to scheduler; add timeout retry on promise non-return; validate fallback fires exactly once on scheduled time. Restart LP-Maker via manual intervention pending patch. Backport promise-handling fix to all agents using

Index-Maker/Index-Taker never deployed (orchestrator bootstrap failure)

Two agents orphaned at startup: wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, armed=false, pidAlive=false. This is NOT a runtime crash—it's a structural bootstrap failure (no prior wakes, no settled deals, no orchestration record). LONG/SHORT market frozen entirely: zero LONG intents posted by Index-Maker means Index-Taker (responder) has nothing to respond to. Architectural blocker until bootstrap is fixed.

index-maker: wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, armed=false, pidAlive=false, settled_deals=0, total_tokens=0. index-taker: wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, armed=false, pidAlive=false, settled_deals=0, total_tokens=0. Both agents

Audit orchestrator bootstrap sequence: verify Index-Maker and Index-Taker watcher scripts are deployed to harness before agents run. Validate wake_script_source is populated. Trigger initial wake for both agents. Verify orchestrator can spawn new agents (may require harness confi

Option supply engine broken: Option-Writer abandoned options, Option-Taker starved

Option-Writer recovered from 845-min crash (w26 06-09T15:49 → w27 06-10T08:15, likely manual restart) but options engine failed: 6 prior intent rejections + intent 765 (ETH call, $0.50) malformed/canceled w28. Engine gave up posting audited options. Option-Taker (sole counterparty, only audited-option source) scanned 8 consecutive times (w9–w16, ~90-min cadence) and found zero audited options in every scan; 0 lifetime deals (one $0.15 a

option-writer-matheus: 'intent 765 (ETH call, $0.50), but it was malformed and canceled w28'. option-taker-matheus: w9–w16 repeat 'No audited Option intents found' (zero variance across 8 scans, 90-min cadence). Prior summary flagged '6 rej

Debug Option-Writer intent construction: audit rejection reason for prior 6 intents + intent 765. Compare audited-option format against Option-Taker's parsing expectations (schema mismatch). Check if validation rules are too strict (false-reject rate). Restart options engine with

Fleet funnel conversion collapsed to 10.97% (85 settled / 775 posted, 690 intents unfilled)

Baseline funnel health degraded post-LP-crash. Historic settled deals routed primarily through LP-Maker (11/16 = 69%); post-outage (919 min, ongoing) new intents aging unfilled. Open book aged: Vulture 8 intents (31–59m old), Momentum Intent #745 (posted 04:50 UTC, still pending 8h as of current time), Rebalancer intents expired unfilled (19:55–20:55 UTC), Arb-Hunter fill rate stalled at 1.8% (2/111). Only Mimic-Bear BinaryBet market ma

Funnel: posted=775, settled=85, open=9, conversionPct=10.97%. LP-Maker in 11/16 settled deals (69%). Open book: vulture-andrew [4.5225 USDC→0.021643 sNVDA 59m], [7.857 USDC→0.026892 sAAPL 58m], [2.469 SSV→5.1022 USDC 58m], [0.001777 ETH→2.9

Restore LP-Maker (emergency patch + restart). Monitor open-book age post-recovery; prioritize aged intents for fill (Vulture 8, Momentum #745). Validate rebalance terms remain fair before accepting fills. Measure funnel recovery in next run (target: >20% conversion as LP liquidit

Mimic-Ljuba ↔ Bear-Yosher partnership stable and disciplined

Two agents form a reliable niche market (BinaryBets). 14 settled deals (11 with Mimic-Ljuba validated), edge-threshold correctly enforced (≥3pp), low PnL variance (−$0.36 lifetime). Bear posts bets sporadically; Mimic correctly waits (w40–w44 identified zero qualifying bets) then immediately accepts when threshold is met (w45 deal #84, 2.95% move ~1.1σ). Zero churn, zero mispricing. This partnership is a model for healthy counterparty a

mimic-ljuba: w40–w44 'correctly idle...waiting for ≥3pp edge floor', then w45 'immediately took high-edge opportunity...deal #84, 2.95% move ~1.1σ'. bear-yosher: '14 settled BinaryBets (11 with Mimic-Ljuba, reliable partnership validated),

None—this market is functioning correctly. Monitor for future edge-threshold drift or watcher failures, but no immediate action needed.

Swap-dependent agents correctly waiting (not churning); constraint is counterparty supply

Arb-Hunter-Tom, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita all armed and firing on schedule, but fills stalled due to LP-Maker offline. All show disciplined behavior: Rebalancer paused DCA during market close (w13–w17, correctly identified 13:30–20:00 UTC window), scheduled next wake for recovery; Swing correctly resting until US market open (13:30 UTC); Stacker respecting market hours (w22–w24); Arb-Hunter correctl

rebalancer-lior: 'correctly identified 13:30–20:00 UTC window [market close], scheduled next wake for market open + LP recovery (w17 fallback=290 min)'. swing-nikita: 'correctly resting until US market open (13:30 UTC)...NOT churning — corr

Waiting on LP-Maker recovery. No agent-side fixes needed. Once LP-Maker online, monitor fill rates for recovery (target: >5% fill rate for swap-dependent agents within 30 min of LP restart).

EMERGENCY: Patch orchestrator armWatcher promise-handling (guarantee promise returned to scheduler; validate fallback fires). Restart LP-Maker-Matheus via manual intervention if patch deploys slowly. Validate fix in next run (target: LP-Maker back online, funnel conversion >20% w

FIX BOOTSTRAP: Audit orchestrator to ensure Index-Maker and Index-Taker watcher scripts deployed before agents run. Verify wake_script_source populated for all agents. Deploy both Index agents. Trigger initial wake for each. Target: LONG/SHORT market unfrozen (zero LONG intents →

DEBUG Option-Writer intent construction: audit rejection reason for prior 6 rejections + intent 765; compare audited-option format vs Option-Taker expectation. Fix validation or format mismatch. Restart options engine. Target: Option-Taker finds audited options in next scan (w17

MONITOR Vulture-Andrew open intents post-LP-restart: prioritize aged intents (8 @ 31–59m old, USDC↔sNVDA/sAAPL/SSV/ETH/BTC) for fill. Validate rebalance terms still fair before accepting fills. Target: Vulture aged intents cleared within 30 min of LP restart; portfolio floor stab

Worse: LP-Maker-Matheus offline 919 min (core promise-drop uncaught), but Option-Writer/Taker recently restarted (last_wake 22m / 660m), suggesting fix or manual intervention.

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop is root cause: LP-Maker offline 919 min (crashed, armed=false, pidAlive=false), Option-Writer/Taker recovered after ~845 min downtime

Index-Maker/Index-Taker bootstrap failure: wake_script_source=null, never deployed, 0 wakes ever — separate from promise-drop bug

LP-Maker is critical path: 11/16 recent settled deals (69%) routed through LP-Maker; offline 919 min starves all swap-dependent agents

Vulture-Andrew posting 8 aged open intents (USDC↔crypto swaps, 21-40m old, zero fills) — indicates LP starvation constraint, not signal quality

2 settled / 105 wakes (1.9% fill) — zero available CEX-oracle edges, or LP starvation limiting swap fills?

1 open BinaryBet (17m old) — finding takers? Prior summary flagged promise-drop duplicate posting in w29b/w30; still happening?

wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, armed=false — bootstrap/deployment failure, or config issue in CLAUDE.md?

wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, armed=false — same bootstrap blocker as Index-Maker?

Offline 919 min (crashed), armed=false, pidAlive=false — is this the armWatcher promise-drop from last summary, or distinct failure?

Waiting for ≥3pp-edge bets from Bear-Yosher. Bear's 1 open BinaryBet (17m) — does it qualify by edge, and if so, why not taken?

Intent #745 (SSV momentum, $51.25, 8h window) unfilled since 04:50 UTC — LP starvation, or no taker at quoted price?

Now armed after 843m offline — is Option-Writer back online, and are audited options flowing?

Restarted (last_wake 22m, after 845m offline from promise-drop) — did fallback fix work, or manual restart? Engine 1 (options) paused in prior summary; running now?

16+ consecutive wakes spanning two runs, zero misprices, zero shade posts — is shade-posting engine wired, or logic-deferred?

DCA intents #669/#670 expired unfilled when LP was down — any new DCA intents posted or settled since attempting LP recovery?

2 settled, budget steady, Intent #753 tracking oracle at 0.99x — fill velocity improved post-LP-restart?

Fade trader: 3 settled (+$0.23); zero sNVDA position (portfolio $100.23, 0.04 sAAPL) — is structural inventory gap the blocker for the sell signal?

8 open intents (21-40m old, USDC↔crypto swaps), zero fills — legitimately mispriced, or LP offline preventing counterparty swaps?

Investigate LP-Maker-Matheus crash (919 min offline). Is this the armWatcher promise-drop from last summary? If fallback was scheduled at 23:00 UTC 06-09, check why it never fired.

Verify Option-Writer/Taker restart: did fallback finally fire after the fix, or was manual restart triggered? Confirm promise-drop bug fix durability.

Deploy Index-Maker and Index-Taker wake scripts (wake_script_source=null). This is a bootstrap/orchestrator failure, orthogonal to the armWatcher promise-drop.

Once LP-Maker is online: reassess all swap-dependent agents (Momentum Intent #745, Rebalancer DCA intents, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita, Vulture-Andrew's 8 open swaps). Current no-fill status is LP-s