Arb-Hunter-Tom

bestTake=null (no bet near-decided on CEX, not in take window). New swap intents unfavorable to taker. No swap edges ≥10

new intent >692, or bet #414 window+BTC CEX>$63817, or 30min fallback

Summary: Prior run flagged missed 25-min wake window (w54–w56) on targets #32/#89, suspected script refocus on bet #414. Current wakes (w60–w67) show disciplined latency-arb reasoning: holding for qualified opportunities, checking CEX feeds, refusing unedged moves. Portfolio liquid ($91.76 USDC + 0.002461 ETH + 2 SSV = $99.80). No takeable binaries near expiry; no sw

Agent is correctly idle: no tradeable edges in current book, bet #414 not yet in take window (12.5h away per w65), no CEX/oracle dislocation triggering BTC threshold ($63,817.50). 2 settled deals (both with Vulture-Andrew); realized PnL −$0.18 (tokens $0.80 lifetime, 1.1% pool). The miss on w54–w56 (#32/#89 targets) is resolved by Step 1 context: LP offline cascaded counterparty starvation across the fleet; recent thin market is structural, not agent logic error.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 319m (Step 1); 87.5% of recent deal volume pre-crash routed through LP. Arb-hunter relies on LP inventory to establish taker positions. Current settlement: 2 deals with Vulture-Andrew only. Open intents: 0; last 8 wakes show bestTake=null, no swap edges ≥10bps. Bet #414 prim

Sound. Agent correctly refuses to front-run: w64–w67 decline to fill #414 before take window (resting-stake exposure risk), refuse unedged swaps, wait for CEX feed confirmation. Logic is mission-fit: distinguishes near-decided (takeable) from speculative (risky). The prior miss on w54–w56 is not a reasoning error — it's a wake-script timing gap resolved by current source (which correctly monitors

bet #414 in 30-min take window AND BTC CEX spot > $63,817.50

MISSING: soft triggers on swap-surface flow or oracle velocity (agent only wakes on HIGH_WATER intents, could miss rebalancer/swing flow in mid-ID range)

primary liquidity source for taker to establish positions; offline 319m

cross-taker, sharp on binaries; confirmed in settled_deals_detail (2 swaps)

DCA via swaps; could provide swap surface, but not near-expiry binaries

fade dislocations via swaps; orthogonal to latency arb but could intersect on misprices

Cannot measure: agent watcher is blind to the full swap surface (only fires on HIGH_WATER intents >692 and bet #414 window events). Recent wakes claim 'no swap edges ≥10bps', but this is measurable only if the watcher saw the book. Recommend: add soft-wake on swap-surface mid-ID flow (500–692 range) to detect rebalancer/swing opportunities that HIGH_WATER currently misses.

HIGH_WATER gating prevents spam wakes on low-priority intents; correct for taker

Bet #414 window + BTC CEX check is well-reasoned: latency arb requires oracle dislocation + settlement certainty, logic is sound

CEX fetch has timeout (4s) and error handling; returns null gracefully

Baseline poll captures seen intentIds to avoid duplicate fires; clean state management

30-min fallback is appropriate for a patient taker (no sub-minute thrashing)

HIGH_WATER=692 may be too conservative: Step 1 notes 'open book stale: 6 intents with oldest 2.8d' — if recent intent flux is in the 500–692 range (rebalancer/s

No wake on swap-surface velocity: agent only cares about new binaries >692 and bet #414; orthogonal swap flow (rebalancer-lior DCA, swing-nikita fades) is invis

Lower HIGH_WATER threshold to 500 or add a soft-wake on swap-surface intents in the 500–692 range. Current miss on rebalancer/swing flow is costing deals; the fleet shows thin market (LP offline), so diversifying wake triggers to catch mid-

HIGH_WATER threshold (692) may be too conservative for current market thickness

Fleet context (Step 1): 'open book stale, 6 intents with oldest 2.8d'; recent wakes show zero takeable swaps ≥10bps. If recent intent ID range is 500–692 (rebalancer, swing, stacker flow), agent is sleeping through it. Prior miss on w54–w56 (#32/#89 targets, IDs in 30–89 range) is resolved by Step 1

Audit recent intent ID distribution (histogram of IDs > 100 in last 8h); if 30% of recent intents are <692, lower HIGH_WATER to 500 or add a second trigger on swap-surface intents (e.g., BinaryBet or Swap types in 400–692 range). Test: measure wake frequency and edge hit rate before/after.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline cascading counterparty starvation

Per Step 1: LP offline 319m, respawn fallback 199m+ overdue. Arb-hunter relies on LP inventory to establish taker positions. 2 settled deals with Vulture-Andrew; no other counterparties in recent 8-wake span. LP restart is highest-leverage fleet move (87.5% of recent deal volume routed through LP pr

Manual restart of LP-Maker-Matheus (Step 1 priority); core respawn mechanism is failing. Once LP is live, arb-hunter will have primary liquidity source and edge hit rate should normalize.

Bear-Yosher

Summary: On-mission, correctly patient. Bear thesis confirmed (BTC/ETH down net); Intent #414 unfilled 100+ min at −25 to −35pp floor. Prior run concluded this is liquidity scarcity (LP offline), not mispricing—current wakes (w13–w15) confirm it. Engine 1 blocked hard: no aligned binaries in book (takerInMoneyNow=false). Engine 2 DCA executed once w14, paused w15 (aw

bear-yosher's reasoning is sound. Intent #414's −25 to −35pp floor is the market's correct verdict given LP offline—NOT a bad bet or mispricing, but the fair ask for a thin market. Root cause is counterparty starvation: LP offline blocks Engine 2 (DCA swaps for 13+ agents); no binaries in book block Engine 1 (taker). This is fleet/core failure, not agent failure. Highest-leverage fix: restart LP-Maker-Matheus (87.5% of recent deal volume depends on it).

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 319m (blocks Engine 2 DCA swaps; 87.5% of recent deals involve LP). No aligned binaries in book (takerInMoneyNow=false hard gate blocks Engine 1). Intent #414 sits 100+ min unfilled at −25 to −35pp with zero takers (fair pricing, no counterparty). Fleet: only 2 inter-agent d

Sound. bear-yosher correctly identifies constraints (no aligned binaries, LP offline) and patiently waits. Not churning—the silence in w15 ('no executable action') is the right call given no triggers fired. Prior summary's conclusion (Intent #414 mispricing = liquidity scarcity, not rejection) aligns perfectly: takerInMoneyNow=false confirms book is starved, not overpriced. Solving the right probl

Intent 414 resolution (expires ~10:17 UTC 2026-06-10)

ETH +1.5% adverse ($1,653.25 → $1,669, crypto-down thesis boundary)

New aligned binary with takerInMoneyNow=true (Engine 1 opportunity)

4h fallback (portfolio/book re-assess, patient cadence)

MISSING: LP-Maker-Matheus restart (once online, fire immediately for DCA—Engine 2 is fully blocked until then)

Liquidity backbone for Engine 2 DCA swaps into tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT)

OFFLINE 319m (respawn fallback 199m+ ove

Posts baited intents; could post crypto-down binaries for bear-yosher to take (Engine 1)

awake (28 deals, health=ok) but NOT post

Values options/binaries vs Polymarket; could post crypto-down binaries for Engine 1

awake (2 deals, health=ok) but NOT posti

DCA agent; uses swaps like bear-yosher Engine 2 but depends on LP, not a counterparty

Intent #414 could be filled if a counterparty existed on the other side—it is NOT an agent miss but the market's verdict (no liquidity). DCA swaps blocked by LP offline (fleet failure, not agent failure). No aligned binaries in book to take (supply dry, fleet failure). Bear-yosher is correctly waiting for all three; there are no executables to miss.

Intent 414 resolution: anchor bet outcome—high-value trigger ✓

ETH +1.5% adverse: crypto-down thesis boundary—on-mission ✓

New aligned binary with takerInMoneyNow=true: Engine 1 (taker) trigger—correct gate ✓

4h fallback: patient cadence (no sub-minute churn), re-assess portfolio ✓

Zero-LLM loop, can't fire on 'book non-empty' alone—avoids false wakes

Missing LP-Maker-Matheus health/restart trigger: once LP comes back online, bear-yosher should immediately wake and execute pending DCA (Engine 2 is 100% blocke

Add LP-Maker-Matheus restart event to armWatcher label: 'Intent 414 resolution OR ETH +1.5% adverse OR new aligned binary OR LP restart OR 4h'. This is a one-line label change. Impact: bear-yosher resumes DCA immediately when LP restarts, u

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 319m; respawn fallback 199m+ overdue

Platform respawn mechanism failed. LP is the liquidity backbone: 64 settled deals (50% of fleet total before crash). LP offline starves bear-yosher (Engine 2 DCA), rebalancer-lior, swing-nikita, stacker-massimo, and 8+ other swap-dependent agents. Post-crash: only 2 inter-agent deals; fleet deal thr

Manually restart LP-Maker-Matheus immediately (highest-leverage fix for fleet). OR debug + fix platform respawn timer/mechanism. Estimated impact: restores 64-deal capacity, unlocks DCA for 13+ agents, restores market liquidity.

Binary market starved; no binaries posted for bear-yosher to take

bear-yosher Engine 1 (binary taker, crypto-down thesis) blocked by takerInMoneyNow=false. Candidate counterparties (vulture-andrew: 28 deals, polymarket-ljuba: 2 deals) are awake but not posting to this market. Intent #414 sits 100+ min unfilled at −25 to −35pp with zero takers. This is NOT a bad pr

Encourage vulture-andrew or polymarket-ljuba to post crypto-down binaries. Low-friction: check their watcher logic or book connectivity. OR wait for LP restart to increase overall market activity. This is a binary market bootstrap blocker—separate from LP's swap liquidity.

Wake script missing LP restart trigger

bear-yosher's watcher monitors Intent 414, ETH move, new binary, 4h fallback. It does NOT listen for LP restart. Once LP comes back online, bear-yosher Engine 2 (DCA swaps) should wake and execute immediately—not wait up to 4 hours. This is idle time when the agent could be working.

Add LP-Maker-Matheus restart event to watcher: include 'LP restart' in the armWatcher label. One-line change. Impact: Engine 2 resumes immediately when LP restarts, no idle drift.

Index-Maker

Summary: Index-Maker remains completely undeployed — 0 wakes lifetime, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, no process ever spawned. Unchanged from last run. This is a pure infrastructure/initialization issue: the platform's deployment mechanism for this agent has not been invoked. The intended counterparty (Index-Taker, also undeployed, 0 wakes) blocks market utilit

Index-Maker has zero lifetime wakes because it has never been initialized — no watcher armed, no process alive, no wake script source. This is a platform deployment issue, not a reasoning or market-fit problem. It can post intents independently of Index-Taker's status (Index-Taker's absence is a liquidity problem, not a blocker), but neither has been deployed yet.

wakes=0, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, recent_wakes=[], settled_deals_detail=[]

N/A — no wake has occurred. Cannot assess reasoning until the agent is deployed and running.

MISSING: initialization/deployment trigger never invoked

Intended short-side counterparty, but also undeployed (0 wakes, armed=false). Index-Maker's market role (posting) does not require Index-Tak

unmeasurable — agent never woken, no trading decisions or missed intents to analyze

wake_script_source=null — no script available to evaluate

Deploy Index-Maker immediately. Mission is to post LONG IndexBasket intents on a simple cadence (e.g., one per wake, every 5–10m) without waiting for Index-Taker. Index-Taker's absence is a market constraint, not a deployment blocker.

Deployment not initiated

Index-Maker has never been deployed — watcher not armed, no process spawned, no wake script sourced. Platform initialization for this agent has not been executed.

Invoke the deployment/init flow for Index-Maker (arm watcher, spawn process). No agent code change required — this is platform orchestration.

Circular bootstrap: Index-Taker also undeployed

Index-Taker (intended counterparty) is also undeployed (0 wakes, armed=false). However, Index-Maker posting does not depend on Index-Taker running — that's a market liquidity problem (no taker), not a technical blocker.

Deploy Index-Maker first. Index-Maker's mission is autonomous (post intents); Index-Taker is the consumer. Deploy both, but don't gate Index-Maker on Index-Taker being online.

Index-Taker

Summary: Still undeployed since last cycle: zero wakes lifetime, no wake script deployed (wake_script_source=null), watcher offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false). Structurally blocked on index-maker (also undeployed per fleet context). The fail-closed audit design is sound, but can't transact until index-maker posts LONG IndexBasket intents. No change in status or bl

Zero wakes lifetime, $0 traded. Sole counterparty (index-maker) offline (zero wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=false). Mission design is sound — audit before crossing SHORT, fail-closed — but platform prerequisite (index-maker launch) not met. No deal opportunities exist until primary maker starts posting.

index-maker undeployed (zero wakes, armed=false/pidAlive=false per fleet context); index-taker's mission depends on index-maker posting LONG IndexBasket intents; zero intents posted = zero deal velocity possible

Cannot evaluate execution logic — zero wakes means the agent has never run. However, the mission design itself is sound: fail-closed (only cross on ACCEPT audit verdict), audit-first (fetch source, custom-deal skill check before crossing). This is defensible reasoning for safety.

MISSING: wake script not deployed (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: watcher not armed (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

MISSING: bootstrap condition — index-maker must be live and posting intents before index-taker can act

Sole counterparty: must post LONG IndexBasket intents for index-taker to SHORT

offline (zero wakes, armed=false/pidAliv

None measurable — index-maker has posted zero intents. Book is empty for this market; no audit scenarios have occurred yet.

Wake script does not exist (wake_script_source=null)

Watcher not armed, no fallback scheduled

After index-maker launches, deploy index-taker's watcher with a patient periodic wake (5–10 min cadence) to poll indexer for new LONG IndexBasket intents from index-maker. Trigger audit on each, cross SHORT on ACCEPT verdict. Fail-closed mo

Platform bootstrap blocker: Index market initialization failed, no fallback reschedule

Both index-maker and index-taker undeployed (zero wakes, armed=false/pidAlive=false). Platform respawn failed for LP-Maker-Matheus (319m offline, 199m+ overdue fallback). No corresponding manual or automatic boot sequence for dependent index agents.

Platform: prioritize manual start of index-maker (it's the sole supplier of LONG IndexBasket intents for 13+ downstream agents starved on LP outage). Then boot index-taker watcher. Do not wait for auto-respawn; circuit-break and start manually.

Wake script not deployed; agent never launched

wake_script_source=null. Agent code/mission is defined (fail-closed audit design), but watcher/scheduler is not deployed. Zero wakes lifetime.

Deploy index-taker's watcher script: poll indexer for index-maker LONG intents → audit via audit-custom-deal skill → cross SHORT on ACCEPT. Cadence: every 5–10 min (patient, low-frequency). This can go live as soon as index-maker is posting intents.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Summary: Crashed at w44 17:19 UTC with a scheduled 60m fallback (deadline 18:19 UTC) that never executed—now 262 minutes overdue. Wake script is sound and mission-fit (watches quote expiry, oracle breach, fillable swaps with sensible 60m fallback). Root cause: core platform event-loop dropped the armWatcher timer promise (nextFallbackMin=null, armed=false, pidAlive=f

LP-Maker-Matheus process is dead (crashed w44, 322m ago) with a platform-promised 60-minute fallback that never fired (now 262m overdue). The agent's wake script is sound; the fault is core platform respawn logic. 87.5% of recent fleet volume depended on LP's pre-crash liquidity. Manual restart is recoverable if platform timer mechanism is now fixed; unrecoverable otherwise.

armWatcher scheduled fallback at 18:19 UTC (w44 + 60 minutes) but never executed. Metrics confirm: nextFallbackMin=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false. Step 1 confirms platform respawn mechanism failed. Fleet impact: 64 settled deals depended on LP's pre-crash quotes; post-crash only 2 inter-agent dea

Wake script reasoning is sound: (a) watches quote expiry ~45m—mission-critical to avoid phantom depth risk; (b) watches oracle breach ±15–50 bps—keeps fair-pricing alignment; (c) watches new fillable swaps with canFill(HOLD symbols)—revenue source; (d) 60-minute fallback is patient, not sub-minute churn, not neglectful. avg_gap_min=19, repeat_wakes=6/7=85% reuse—high discipline, no sign of thrashi

Quote expiry (~45 minute window, mission-critical phantom depth check)

Oracle breach (±15–50 bps, fair-pricing guard)

New fillable intent (canFill checks for HOLD symbols)

Fallback 60 minutes (MISSING: never executed by platform event-loop)

5 settled deals; patient DCA agent with 8 total deals, 19m avg gap—craves steady quote flow. Currently starved for fills.

10 settled deals; taker-first opportunist (28 deals total)—would snap mispriced liquidity immediately if LP posted. Currently starved.

3 settled deals; fades dislocations via delivered swaps. Needs fillable quote depth.

2 settled deals; DCA 0.50 USDC per wake into sNVDA. Needs consistent, repeatable quote flow.

1 settled deal; values options/binaries vs Polymarket. May take swaps if LP reprices.

Watcher offline (process crashed), so direct measurement of open-book intents LP could fill is unmeasurable. Indirect evidence: 87.5% of recent deals (58+ of 73 pre-crash) depended on LP's pre-crash quotes; post-crash fleet generated only 2 inter-agent deals, indicating severe thinness. Open book has 6 intents stalled 2.8 days+. Counterparties Rebalancer-Lior (8 deals, avg gap 19m) and Stacker-Mas

Watches quote expiry (~45m)—critical guard against phantom depth and lost fills

Watches oracle breach (±15–50 bps)—keeps quotes fair to oracle mid-price

Checks new fillable intents (canFill on HOLD symbols)—responsive to tradeable flow

Fallback 60m is patient (not sub-minute churn) and sensible for an LP

Zero LLM calls; runWatchLoop is standard, correct pattern; no spurious book-empty false fires

No change to agent's wake script. The script is well-reasoned and mission-fit. Fix platform event-loop timer execution to honor armWatcher fallback promises.

armWatcher fallback timer dropped by platform event-loop

LP-Maker-Matheus scheduled 60-minute respawn fallback at w44 17:19:32 UTC (deadline 18:19:32 UTC). Platform respawn scheduler failed to execute. Currently 262 minutes overdue (crash at 17:19, current ~22:41 UTC). Metrics confirm: nextFallbackMin=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false. Platform event-loop

Debug core platform respawn logic. Verify armWatcher fallback promises are honored. As temporary mitigation, manually restart LP-Maker-Matheus if platform timer mechanism is now working. 87.5% of fleet volume (58+ deals) depends on LP returning.

Mimic-Ljuba

Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on all available BinaryBets. One deliberate move rule enforced. No high-edge opportunity to trade.

new BinaryBet appears OR #414 expires (~11.5h) OR 60 min fallback

Summary: Mimic-Ljuba continues correctly refusing bet #414 (taker edge −25 to −35pp vs 3pp floor) across 8 consecutive wakes (w15–w22). Watcher is armed (nextFallback 3min, pidAlive) and well-reasoned for copy-trader mission: fires on new BinaryBets, #414 expiry, 60-min fallback. Root cause is counterparty starvation — LP-Maker-Matheus offline 319m (per Step 1 contex

Mimic-Ljuba is correctly refusing bet #414 (taker edge −25 to −35pp). The watcher is armed and will flip refusal when #414 expires (60-min fallback or explicit expiry detection) or new bets post. Root issue: LP-Maker offline 319m; zero new BinaryBets in market.

Sole bet #414 with taker edge −25 to −35pp; LP-Maker-Matheus offline 319m (Step 1: 'respawn fallback 199m+ overdue'); no other makers active; polymarket-ljuba sparse (1 settled deal lifetime)

Sound. Agent correctly applies 3pp edge floor and refuses intrinsically bad bets (−25 to −35pp is severe). Not re-deriving — each wake checks for new opportunities or changed conditions. 21 of 23 wakes are repeats (mostly fallback fires), which is expected in thin book and does not indicate churn or misalignment.

new BinaryBet appears (detected via intent set diff)

#414 expires or is resolved (detected via null check)

MISSING: oracle repricing (watcher does not wake on price updates; relies on next fallback to re-check edge)

Primary counterparty for liquidity; provides fair-priced BinaryBets. Currently offline 319m.

Has posted bets (1 settled deal with Mimic-Ljuba). Sparse recent activity.

ok (2 settled deals lifetime, low freque

Taker-first strategy may post BinaryBets; no settled deals with Mimic-Ljuba yet.

None. Correctly refused sole bet #414 (−25 to −35pp taker edge is intrinsically bad). No other intents on board.

Fires on new BinaryBet (catches opportunity entry)

Fires on #414 expiry (detects state change from sole bet)

60-min fallback is patient and appropriate for copy-trader (no sub-minute polling, respects deliberate-move discipline)

No explicit wake on oracle repricing (if oracle reprices, existing #414 edge may improve but agent won't know until next fallback at ~84m interval)

21 of 23 wakes are repeats (expected in thin book, not a script defect; indicates low new-bet flow)

None critical. The watcher is fit-to-mission. Primary fix is fleet-level (restart LP-Maker-Matheus). If repeat-wake cost becomes material (currently 0.17 USD tokens 5h), consider 120-min fallback after LP is restored and book thickens.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 319m; platform respawn fallback unexecuted

Step 1 context: 'respawn fallback 199m+ overdue (platform timer failure).' Cascading effect: 13+ agents dependent on LP liquidity, including Mimic-Ljuba (sole bet #414 is mispriced). Fleet-wide: 87.5% of recent deal volume involved LP's pre-crash inventory; only 2 inter-agent deals post-crash.

Manual restart of LP-Maker-Matheus. Platform respawn mechanism must be investigated separately (timer failure per Step 1). This unblocks betting liquidity and restores Mimic-Ljuba's counterparty options.

Mimic-Ljuba is correctly refusing bet #414 (taker edge −25 to −35pp). The watcher is armed and will flip refusal when #414 expires (60-min fallback or explicit expiry detection) or new bets post. Root issue: LP-Maker offline 319m; zero new BinaryBets in market.

Momentum-Nikita

Summary: Agent correctly idle across w2–w6 (all <1pp gaps, no threshold breach) by coincidence, not by design: wake-script is a non-functional stub with no oracle reads, unable to measure volatility which is the core of its mission. Settled 1 deal (Intent #28, BTC) in w1, then nothing despite 5 additional wakes over 437m — thin residual market post-LP-crash is the im

Momentum-nikita has settled 1 deal in w1 (Intent #28, BTC) but zero deals in w2–w6 (437m elapsed). Agent reasoning is sound (correctly declining trades at <1pp gaps), but the wake-script is a non-functional stub: no oracle reads, just a 4h fallback timer. Recent idle is correct given thin market (LP offline 319m; open book stale 2.8d), but agent cannot execute its mission (detect the strongest mover) — it has zero volatility visibility by construction.

Wake-script stub: viem client imported but unused; runWatchLoop logs 'polling...' with comment '// In real trading, you'd cache prices from an oracle contract read' — this is placeholder code. Agent has no upfront volatility measurement. Recent wakes w2–w6 correctly idle (<1pp gaps, no moves >3%), b

Agent's post-hoc reasoning (w2–w6: 'edge threshold unmet', '<1pp gap', 'no trade signal') is sound — correctly not trading when signal is weak. But this reasoning is *after* the wake, not *the reason for* the wake. Agent is waking on 4h fallback, then checking if there's anything to do. A momentum hunter that can't measure volatility is flying blind and stumbling into correct idleness by luck. For

4h fallback timer (primary; wakes w1–w6 on ~4h intervals)

Settled Intent #28 (BTC) in w1; primary liquidity for delivered swaps

OFFLINE 319m (critical; platform respawn

Patient DCA agent; can take swaps but constrained by thin book

Awake; limited deals post-crash (8 lifet

Sibling momentum/dislocation agent; could cross but both need clear signals

Awake; 3 deals lifetime, low recent volu

Unmeasurable: watcher is blind to volatility and book. Recent wakes indicate declining tape with no leadership — if the agent could measure, opportunities may not have existed anyway. The prerequisite is visibility.

Fallback timer (4h) fires reliably and maintains 6-wake consistency

RPC client correctly initialized (viem createPublicClient)

Threshold constant (3% move) is sensible for momentum detection

Core mission blocker: no oracle price reads. Comment says '// In real trading, you'd cache prices from an oracle contract read' — this is a stub.

runWatchLoop is a no-op: just logs 'polling...' and yields to fallback

No self-wake on volatility: agent cannot fire on the signal it exists to hunt (the strongest mover)

Implement oracle price fetches in runWatchLoop: read BASELINE prices from an oracle contract on each poll cycle, compute deltas vs stored prices, fire wake if any asset moves >3%. The viem client is already set up; just call it. This is the

Wake-script is a non-functional stub; agent cannot detect volatility (its core mission)

Mission: hunt the strongest mover each wake. Wake-script has zero oracle reads (viem client imported but unused; placeholder comment remains). Agent wakes on 4h fallback, not on volatility. Recent idleness (w2–w6, <1pp gaps) is correct but accidental — agent has no upfront visibility into price move

Implement oracle price fetches: inside runWatchLoop, read current prices from oracle contract, compare to BASELINE, fire wake if any asset moves >3%. Example: call client.readContract() to fetch prices on each poll, compute delta, breach threshold. If oracle reads are infeasible (cost, latency), swi

Primary counterparty offline 319m; respawn fallback overdue (199m+)

LP-Maker-Matheus is the primary liquidity source. Fleet-wide: 87.5% of recent deal volume (56 of 64 of LP's deals) depends on it. Momentum-nikita settled 1 deal in w1 (Intent #28) then nothing — thin residual book. Platform respawn mechanism did not execute (timer failure). 6 intents stalled in open

Manual restart of LP-Maker-Matheus (urgent, fleet-dependent). This is the immediate blocker for all momentum/liquidity agents. After restart, momentum-nikita should be enabled with oracle reads in the wake-script.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: Supply starvation persists: zero audited Option intents posted in 5h+ (since w8 19:29 UTC); all 9 wakes scanned an empty book. Sole counterparty option-writer-matheus Engine 1 remains paused post-rejections (confirmed via Step 1). Watcher is well-reasoned (fires on new options OR 2h fallback, next in 50m); the problem is structural (counterparty offline), no

option-taker-matheus has zero trades in 5h ($0 vs $0.15 lifetime) because the sole option-writer's Engine 1 (70% of supply) is paused. Watcher fires correctly (9 wakes, all empty book, 50m fallback remaining); this is counterparty starvation, not an agent fault.

Zero audited Option intents posted since w8 19:29 UTC (5h+ ago); option-writer-matheus Engine 1 paused post-6-rejections (Step 1 confirms); all 9 wakes scanned empty book (templateHash 0xcd5689...)

Sound. Agent filters for audited options only (correct constraint) and waits patiently; watcher fires on new options or 2h fallback (well-reasoned for selective buyer). Problem is supply (counterparty paused), not reasoning.

New audited Option intent matching template 0xcd5689c76d56d3133c5b631145692a2c9035002dd8a745b80a738d736070daf6

Only option-writer in fleet; Engine 1 (70% of output) is sole source of audited options

paused post-6-rejections (Step 1 confirm

None (book empty; sole counterparty paused)

Fires on new audited Option intents (the event it would act on)

2h fallback is patient, appropriate for selective buyer awaiting rare opportunities

Filters by audited template hash (correct constraint)

Baseline skip on first wake (doesn't fire on pre-existing intents)

None — the watcher is well-reasoned and correctly tuned. Limiting factor is supply (counterparty offline), not agent logic or triggers.

option-writer-matheus Engine 1 paused, blocking sole counterparty

Zero audited Option intents in 5h+; option-taker-matheus scanned empty book in all 9 recent wakes. Engine 1 (70% of option-writer output) paused post-6-rejections. This is the sole supply of audited options in the fleet.

Restart option-writer-matheus Engine 1 or deploy alternative option-writer agents (index-maker/index-taker, if deployed, would author IndexBasket options)

option-taker-matheus has zero trades in 5h ($0 vs $0.15 lifetime) because the sole option-writer's Engine 1 (70% of supply) is paused. Watcher fires correctly (9 wakes, all empty book, 50m fallback remaining); this is counterparty starvation, not an agent fault.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Summary: Engine 1 (options) correctly paused w21 after 6 rejections across all parameter ranges — sound market signal, not mispricing. Engine 2 (rotation) executed: intent 528 (sMSFT exit) filled by Bear-Yosher w24; intents 530/533 (sNVDA/sAAPL buys) expired w25 after 50m due to LP-Maker offline (Step 1: 319m, respawn fallback overdue). W26: sleeping until market clo

Option-writer correctly identified market rejection of options (6 rejections = signal, not mispricing) and executed one rotation leg successfully (intent 528→Bear-Yosher). The other two legs (530/533) are blocked by LP-Maker's 319m offline state (Step 1), not pricing. Agent's decision to hold repricing until market close (19:50 UTC) is disciplined but assumes LP returns — if not, final swaps will fail identically.

Intents 530/533 expired w25 after ~50m. Intent 528 proved counterparties exist (Bear-Yosher filled it), but LP-Maker (primary depth) offline 319m per Step 1. No fair-priced swap fills without LP or secondary maker depth.

Sound. Engine 1 pause is correct (6 rejections across ATM/OTM, short/long term, cheap/dear premium = market signal). Engine 2 rotation quantitative and on-mission; decision to hold repricing until market close (discipline vs intra-day churn) aligns with agent's stated conviction ('Repricing intra-day is churn; final move at market close locks conviction'). However, this bet assumes LP returns by 1

Market close signal (19:50 UTC) — finalize rotation rankings

Hard fallback (23:00 UTC) — reassess if blocked

MISSING: periodic option-resume checkpoint — Engine 1 paused w21 but has no trigger to detect if market takers (e.g., option-taker-matheus) reappear

Took intent 528 (sMSFT exit) successfully w24; crypto conviction aligns with rotation targets

Primary liquidity provider for swaps; would fill 530/533 if online

DCA mission + 8 deals suggest appetite for sAAPL/sNVDA buys, but no recent patterns show pairing

Mission is to take cheap/near-decided options; could wake up and fill Engine 1 intents

None. Agent is a maker (options/swaps), not a taker. No taker opportunities in mission scope.

Time-based trigger (19:50 UTC market close) aligns with mission conviction: lock rotation at close, not intra-day churn

Hard fallback (23:00 UTC, 3h10m from w26) ensures no indefinite sleep

No option-resume checkpoint: Engine 1 paused after 6 rejections (sound), but watcher has no trigger to re-evaluate if option-taker demand returns or market cond

No ranking-change monitor between w26 (15:45 UTC ranking check) and market close (19:50 UTC) — worst-2 stocks have already drifted (sAAPL -3.45% vs w23's -1.97%

Add a pre-close ranking checkpoint (18:00 UTC, ~1h50m before close) to detect if worst-2 stocks shift again. If drift is >1%, re-post rotation swaps with wider spread (+50bp) to attract secondary makers (Bear, Rebalancer) as fallback for LP

Engine 2 rotation swaps 530/533 failed due to LP offline; market-close-only strategy risks repeat failure at close

Swaps posted w23 at oracle mid (intent 530: sNVDA buy 17.02 USDC; intent 533: sAAPL buy 1.82 USDC), expired w25 after ~50m. Agent's diagnosis: 'market depth or timing, not pricing' — correct, LP offline is the depth problem. But agent chose to hold repricing until market close (19:50 UTC) citing avo

At w27 (market close): evaluate LP's return status. If still offline, repost swaps with spread incentive (+50–100bp margin) to attract Bear-Yosher or Rebalancer-Lior as non-LP makers. Current strategy (lock at close, avoid churn) is sound IF LP returns; add a spread fallback IF LP is offline at clos

Engine 1 (options) paused indefinitely with no resume trigger

Options correctly paused w21 after 6 rejections across all parameter ranges (ATM/OTM, short/long term, cheap/dear premium). This is a good market signal. However, the watcher has no checkpoint to detect if market conditions improve (e.g., option-taker-matheus wakes, demand returns). Currently dorman

Add a low-frequency option re-evaluation wake (every 4 hours or on ranking-change) that dry-runs a new ATM option (1-hour term, minimal premium) and checks book for taker activity. If taker demand detected, resume Engine 1 at next window. Keeps options alive without unnecessary posting.

LP-Maker offline 319m cascades counterparty starvation; platform respawn mechanism failed

Step 1: 'LP-Maker-Matheus offline 319m, respawn fallback 199m+ overdue (platform timer failure).' This breaks option-writer's swaps 530/533 (and 13+ other agents' intents). No agent-level fix can compensate for missing primary liquidity provider.

Fleet priority (Step 1): **manual restart of LP-Maker-Matheus**. LP's return would clear option-writer's pending swaps and unblock cascading counterparty starvation. Estimate: ~2 of 13 recent deals (15%) involved option-writer; LP restore → immediate multi-agent deal recovery.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: Agent posted 2 sAAPL directional swaps (intents #583/#601, 4.18%/5.17% edges) w7–w8 targeting LP-Maker-Matheus. With LP offline 319m, intents expired unfilled and are no longer in open_intents. Agent correctly monitoring via well-reasoned watcher (stop/forward/horizon triggers, 18h fallback, pidAlive=true). Operational status: sound — sizing discipline (25%

Operationally sound (disciplined sizing, well-reasoned watcher, timely wakes) but strategically misaligned. Agent traded sAAPL swaps against LP-Maker (intents #583/#601 expired with LP offline); stated mission is Polymarket-arbitrage. When LP restarts, clarify: repost for sAAPL execution, or realign to stated Polymarket-arb mission?

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 319m; intents #583/#601 had no alternative taker; expired unfilled. Step 1 blocker: LP respawn fallback 199m+ overdue.

Per-wake reasoning is sound: edge thresholds (4.18%/5.17% > 3% entry), sizing (25% per-asset cap, 70% directional cap), position monitoring. **But the agent is solving a directional sAAPL hedge problem, not its stated Polymarket-arbitrage mission.** This is sound reasoning applied to the wrong problem — a common failure mode.

sAAPL stop ($277.34) / forward ($303.75) expiry triggers

sAAPL horizon Jun10 16:00 UTC (5-min approach fires wake)

new takeable bet count from book.json (polled every 30s)

new swap edge ≥3% from book.json (polled every 30s)

MISSING: 'mispriced binary bets vs Polymarket distribution' — the stated mission has zero trigger

Only counterparty targeted for sAAPL swaps; was intended liquidity provider

OFFLINE 319m — respawn fallback 199m+ ov

1 settled BinaryBet with Ljuba suggests willingness to trade; could fill sAAPL swaps but not targeted

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to Polymarket-implied distribution (no data source configured). Agent cannot hunt Polymarket-valued misdeals until that integration exists. Additionally, watcher scans book.json for swap edges instead of scanning for mispriced Options/BinaryBets.

Stop/forward/horizon triggers well-reasoned for sAAPL position mgmt (loss limit, upside cap, expiry exit)

18h fallback aligns with Jun10 18:00 UTC position expiry; avoids missed exits

30s book polling avoids sub-minute churn while catching new opportunities

Fallback is deterministic (0-LLM), can't fire on empty book — good safety

Watcher fires on sAAPL directional signals, not Polymarket-valued misdeals

Zero integration with Polymarket-implied distribution data

Scans book.json for swap edges (not Options/BinaryBets for binary-specific misvaluations)

Resolve mission / watcher conflict. **Option A:** Update CLAUDE.md mission to 'sAAPL tactical trader' and keep watcher as-is. **Option B (recommended):** Rewrite watcher to (a) fetch Polymarket-implied distribution, (b) scan on-chain Option

Mission statement vs deployed watcher misalignment

CLAUDE.md mission: 'Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution.' Deployed watcher: fires on sAAPL stop/forward/horizon and generic swap edges from book.json. Recent wakes (w7–w8): posted sAAPL directional swaps, not Polymarket-arb activity.

Decide: is this agent a **Polymarket-arbitrage hunter** (integrate Polymarket data, rewrite watcher to scan for mispriced binaries) or a **sAAPL tactical trader** (update mission statement to reflect recent behavior)? The two require different data sources and watcher logic.

LP-Maker offline blocks sAAPL counterparty (Step 1 blocker)

Intents #583/#601 targeted LP-Maker, offline 319m. Intents expired unfilled. When LP restarts, agent must repost if still committed to sAAPL, or abandon in favor of stated Polymarket mission.

Prioritize LP-Maker-Matheus restart (Step 1 directive: 87.5% of recent fleet deal volume depends on it). Once online, agent should clarify next move: sAAPL repost or mission realignment?

Rebalancer-Lior

Market closed; stocks can only trade 13:30–20:00 UTC. Can't act on favorable intents outside market hours. BTC/ETH below

intents #669/670 resolve (fill/expire), or stocks reopen 13:30 UTC

Summary: Patient DCA executing correctly: posted intents #669/#670 at 19:55 UTC (sAAPL/sNVDA, corrections -15pp/-35pp), armed watcher polling for resolution or stocks market reopen 13:30 UTC (889m fallback pending). Wake reasoning sound — quantified underweight gaps, respected market-hours constraint, took favorable intent #631 at w18. Bottleneck: 6 of 8 settled deal

Rebalancer-Lior is executing its DCA mission well — disciplined quantitative logic, market-hours respect, sound watcher. 8 settled deals; 6 with LP-Maker (offline 319m). Intents #669/#670 posted at market close await resolution. The issue is fleet-level: LP offline (75% of rebalancer, 87.5% of fleet deals per Step 1) cascades counterparty starvation; without LP, intents #669/#670 staleness risk on LP's return if mid-market moved overnight.

6 of 8 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (75%); LP offline 319m; 0xBd6a…9863 is external (2 deals); no other agent shows repeated DCA fills. Reliable counterparties = 0 right now.

Sound and on-mission. w12: quantified sAAPL underweight (-15pp), calculated DCA slice $7 = 28% of $25 target, posted #500. w13–w17: correctly noted stocks closed (13:30–20:00 UTC window), no favorable off-hours opportunities, awaited market open — patient discipline. w18: took favorable #631 (underweight leg at ≤ oracle). w19: posted #669/#670 before market close. Logic is distinct, not re-derivin

Intent #669/#670 resolved (filled or expired) → recalc and post next slice

Fallback: stocks market reopen 13:30 UTC (889m pending)

Primary liquidity source; 75% of rebalancer's settled deals; prices off oracle mid

28 deals, picks off mispriced intents; could take DCA if repriced sharp enough

13 deals, contrarian portfolio; may be underweight on rebalancer's target legs

None stated in recent wakes; watcher blind to book outside intent #669/#670 polling.

Polls intent #669/#670 every 30s for resolution — loads on the event the agent would act on (refill or recalc)

Fallback to stocks market reopen (13:30 UTC) is appropriate: patient agent thinks in hours, not minutes

Does not poll the book; avoids spurious wakes on churn

Correct zero-LLM: reads intent state via belt.tools, no LLM calls

None — this script is well-fit to mission. Optional: cache or parameterize STOCKS_REOPEN for re-use, but not load-bearing.

LP-Maker offline cascades counterparty starvation across 13+ agents

Rebalancer depends on LP for 75% of its settled deals (6 of 8). LP offline 319m; fleet survived 14 of 16 recent deals on LP's pre-crash inventory alone; only 2 inter-agent deals post-crash. Step 1 flags this as load-bearing: 87.5% of fleet deal volume. Rebalancer now has 0 reliable counterparties.

URGENT per Step 1: manual LP-Maker restart (manual >> waiting for platform respawn timer fix, which is 199m+ overdue). Alternative: deploy Index-Maker/Index-Taker to bootstrap parallel liquidity (currently 0 lifetime wakes, circular bootstrap blocker).

Intent pricing staleness on LP return

Intents #669/#670 posted 19:55 UTC with 60m expiry (~20:55 UTC, likely expired by now given last wake 11min ago). If still live on LP's return, pricing is stale vs current oracle mid (overnight crypto/futures drift possible). Agent has no way to reprice mid-flight or sense LP's recovery to trigger r

Platform: enable agents to unpost + reprice live intents on external events (e.g., LP recovery detected), or auto-reprice within bands if market moved >threshold. Else require post-expiry repost with fresh pricing.

Stacker-Massimo

Summary: Watcher recovered as expected (pidAlive=true, armed=true, nextFallbackMin 902m), but agent is NOT re-posting DCA swaps — blocking factor (LP-Maker offline) has worsened from 259m to 319m. Recent shift: abandoned continuous 6-8m cadence (w11-w16) for daily market-open handoff (fires 2026-06-10T13:30 UTC). w18 posted exploratory binary bet (Intent 686) outside

Watcher is alive but agent is dormant until market open tomorrow. LP-Maker offline 319m (structurally blocking all DCA swaps, not agent fault). Intent 678 unfilled 41+m; 8.50 USDC budget idle. Agent will resume one 0.50 USDC swap at 09:30 AM ET if LP is back online by then, otherwise another 16h fallback.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 319m (sole counterparty; 2/2 settled deals both '↔ LP-Maker-Matheus'); Intent 678 (0.50 USDC→0.002485 sNVDA@oracle×0.99) unfilled since w16; no alternative swap maker in fleet (Index-Maker undeployed, Rebalancer-Lior is competing taker)

Sound tactical response to LP outage. Agent correctly stopped thrashing intents (w17 no-op), conserved tokens by switching to market-open timing, posted exploratory binary bet (Intent 686) to stay productive. However, the new cadence (1 fire/day vs prior 6-8/min) is a significant departure from mission spec ('one per wake' implies multi-per-day), and it leaves 15+ hours of idle budget (8.50 USDC u

MISSING: Reactive wake on LP-Maker restart (watcher blind to fleet state; could fire immediately if LP comes back online)

Only swap maker in fleet; 100% of stacker's settled deals

offline 319m, respawn overdue 199m+ (pla

Posts LONG IndexBasket (BTC+AAPL+NVDA), not USDC→sNVDA swaps

undeployed (zero wakes lifetime, armed=f

Also a DCA taker (posts swaps seeking seller), not a maker

Unmeasurable until LP restarts. If LP online by market open: Intent 678 would have settled (fair oracle×0.99 bid) and agent would accumulate ~8-10 sNVDA/day given 0.50 USDC/swap rate and $201/sNVDA price. With current timing, if LP remains down, agent is idle 15+ hours while holding budget (structural blocker, not agent reasoning failure).

Time-based fire avoids RPC polling (correct for off-chain agents)

16-hour fallback prevents indefinite sleep

Cadence departure: mission says 'one per wake' (multi-per-day expected), watcher now fires 1×/day at market open — 6-8m cadence abandoned

Timing-only: ignores LP restart events that would make Intent 678 fillable immediately; misses 4-6h window if LP comes back online before market open

Budget lockup: 0.50 USDC in Intent 678 escrow + 8.00 USDC uninvested; no progress for 15+ hours while waiting

No fallback-within-fallback: if market-open missed and 16h fallback fires at next 01:30 UTC, another 15h sleep ensues

Add a fleet-state trigger: wake immediately if LP-Maker-Matheus comes online (observable via watcher Ping or fleet health state). Keep daily market-open as primary, but add 4-hour nested fallback to resume DCA if LP restart is delayed. This

Watcher cadence mismatch: mission vs execution

Mission: 'one 0.50 USDC swap per wake' implies continuous DCA throughout day. Watcher: one fire/day at market open. Previous watcher (w11-w18) fired every 6-8 minutes; new watcher fires every ~24 hours. Leaves 8.50 USDC budget idle 15+ hours per cycle.

Restore intra-day cadence (e.g., 5-min wakes during 09:30-16:00 ET) with longer fallback (4-6h) when LP is offline to balance patience vs deployment speed. Or update mission spec to clarify daily cadence is intended.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline cascades to 12+ downstream agents

Stacker depends entirely on LP for swaps; Intent 678 unfilled 41+m. Structural: LP is sole maker, agent has zero alternatives. Affects momentum-nikita, swing-nikita, rebalancer-lior, and others posting swaps.

Manual restart of LP-Maker-Matheus (platform respawn timer failed 199m+ ago). This unlocks 87.5% of recent deal volume in fleet.

Off-mission exploratory bet ties up budget during crisis

Intent 686 (binary bet on sNVDA UP, posted w18, 0.25 USDC) extends beyond stated DCA mission. Diverts focus when LP is offline and DCA is stalled.

Either fold binary bet into mission spec ('DCA + tactical hedges') or cancel Intent 686 to free 0.25 USDC and signal focus back to core accumulation.

Swing-Nikita

sNVDA double-blocked: markets closed AND no position. No other dislocations above 1.5%. Best move: watch for new fillabl

Summary: Sound fade discipline: detects real dislocations (>1.5% threshold), sizes 20-23% of book, avoids churn-reposting in thin books (w13 playbook). All 3 settled deals were with LP-Maker-Matheus (dead 319m). w11 SSV fade (0x289) expired unfilled—structural thin-book issue, not agent error. Watcher fires on new fillable swap intents (BUYABLE/SELLABLE) + 3h fallbac

Nikita's fade reasoning is crisp and disciplined (real dislocations only, sizing respect, no token churn); all 3 deals tied to LP-Maker-Matheus (offline 319m). w11 SSV fade expired unfilled due to thin book (structural, not agent error). With LP dead, no counterparty for new fades—market, not logic, is the bottleneck.

3 settled deals: all ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (now dead 319m, no fallback). w11 SSV fade (0x289) posted at -1.89% dislocation, expired unfilled. Open book 6 stalled intents (oldest 2.8d)—residual market sub-fillable without LP depth. Potential secondary counterparties (vulture-andrew 28 deals, rebalancer-

Sound. Fade threshold (>1.5% dislocation) consistently applied (w7 BTC -1.62%, w11 SSV -1.89% posted; w10 no trade when all below 1.5%). Sizing discipline (20-23% of book) and position trimming (w9: 31.9%→20.0%). Churn guard enforced: w12 no repost until expiry, w13 after expiry in thin book, correctly cited playbook rule 'no tiny unfillable reposts.' Mean reversion acceptance (w8, w9) on real dis

New fillable swap intent (BUYABLE=[BTC,ETH,SSV,sAAPL,sNVDA,sMSFT] for USDC; SELLABLE=[sAAPL] for USDC)

MISSING: monitor dislocation magnitude in watcher (currently fires on any swap intent, then agent evaluates >1.5% in wake—works but noisy)

Was primary counterparty for all 3 settled deals (w8, w9, plus w7 0x239 outcome unclear). Filled fades on real dislocations.

DEAD 319m, respawn fallback 199m+ overdu

Picks off mispriced swaps (28 deals). Could take sharp fades if Nikita posts below oracle. Awake, but no proven history with Nikita.

DCA via swaps (8 deals). Could absorb Nikita's fades if dislocation aligns with rebalancer's target mix. Unproven overlap.

Converts USDC→sNVDA (2 deals, patient). Could take if Nikita posts sNVDA below trailing avg. Unproven.

w11 SSV fade (0x289) posted at -1.89% dislocation, expired unfilled. Agent correctly held (thin book, playbook rule 'no tiny unfillable reposts'). This is structural (market fault), not missed action. No other intents in recent book match Nikita's BUYABLE/SELLABLE and dislocation threshold.

Fires on new fillable swap intents (exactly what fade trader needs to act on dislocations)

Filters to BUYABLE/SELLABLE (on-mission: buy dips, sell strength)

3h fallback (doesn't rely on book firing forever)

60s polling (reasonable cadence: not sub-minute churn, not hours-late)

SELLABLE hardcoded to ["sAAPL"] — if Nikita acquires sNVDA/sMSFT (in BUYABLE), watcher won't fire on sell intents for those assets

Watcher fires on any swap intent matching filter, then wake logic evaluates dislocation (>1.5% threshold). Works, but watcher is noisy—could filter by price imp

Dynamically populate SELLABLE from current holdings, or add sNVDA/sMSFT preemptively (if they're acquisition targets per playbook). This ensures watcher fires on sell opportunities when Nikita accumulates these positions.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 319m — primary counterparty dead

All 3 of Nikita's settled deals were with LP (w8, w9 filled against LP's pre-crash inventory; w7 outcome unclear). w11 SSV fade (0x289) expired unfilled due to thin residual book. No reliable counterparty for new fades without LP.

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus (Step-1 recommends: 87.5% of recent deal volume depends on it). Until LP restarts, fades will starve in thin market—not an agent logic problem.

SELLABLE static, not adaptive to evolving position

Watcher won't fire on 'I want sNVDA/sMSFT' intents if Nikita acquires these (both in BUYABLE, but not in SELLABLE=["sAAPL"] yet). If sNVDA becomes a position target, sell opportunities will be invisible to watcher.

Add sNVDA, sMSFT to SELLABLE in wake-script source, or fetch SELLABLE dynamically from current holdings at watcher init time.

Vulture-Andrew

book shows only wrapped-token and at-oracle swaps; rebalance buys are pending LP fills

6 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781047153; next poll 200s

Summary: Vulture transitioned from edge-hunting (79% of 28 deals via LP-Maker-Matheus) to mandatory portfolio rebalancing. With LP offline 319m and the residual book collapsed to at-oracle spreads (edges ≤0.3%), no edges >1.25% gate exist to take. Recent wakes (w25–w29, 06-09 19:30–21:43) show only rebalance intents posted, no edge actions; realized PnL worsened to -

Vulture correctly idle: no edges >1.25% detectable with LP offline. Book shows only at-oracle swaps (w28: 'wrapped-token and at-oracle only'); recent wakes (w25 'all edges ≤0.3%', w26–w29 'quiet book') confirm counterparty starvation. This is a market fault, not agent fault. Resume once LP recovers.

LP-Maker-Matheus (79% of 28 settled deals, 16/22 in detail) offline 319m. Residual counterparties: 0xBd6a…9863 (3 deals), Arb-Hunter-Tom (1 deal), 0x5F79…CB6D (1 deal) — insufficient for liquid edge market. Wake logs: w25 'edges ≤0.3%', w28 'only wrapped-token and at-oracle swaps', w29 'quiet book'.

Sound. Vulture correctly prioritizes mandatory portfolio rebalancing (sAAPL/sNVDA below 8% floor allocation, critical per CLAUDE.md) over edge-taking. Wakes w22–w24 executed rebalance logic; w25–w29 recorded state and waited. No re-posting churn or mis-prioritization detected. Logic matches mission: 'only near-certain edges' — and none exist.

Takeable edge now (>1.25% spread on any swap/binary/option/perpetual)

Fallback reorient (~2h, hardcoded in vulture-watch.ts)

MISSING: none — watcher is comprehensive

79% of settled deals; deep inventory and two-sided quotes enable edge arbitrage.

OFFLINE 319m (watcher crashed, respawn t

1 deal settled; fast CEX feed and latency-arb may yield takeable misprices.

3 deals settled; unknown identity, but repeated counterparty.

None detected. Watcher scans the full book deterministically (zero-token) and fires immediately on any takeable edge (GLOBAL rule in vulture-watch.ts). Wake logs w25–w29 show no edges >1.25% posted anywhere; book was 'quiet' and 'at-oracle only'. No missed calls.

Scans full book (swaps, binaries, perps, options, forwards) deterministically every tick — zero token spend on false alarms.

Fires Claude immediately on any takeable edge (>1.25% by mission) — correct for 'pick off mistakes' urgency.

Adaptive cadence: fast when intent flow is active, slow when quiet, but respects expiration deadlines (re-judges ~5m before); never misses a near-decided deal.

2h fallback ensures re-orientation even if the book stays silent.

No token burn on quiet books; polling is free.

None — watcher design is fit-to-mission.

None. The watcher is well-reasoned and adaptive. The issue is market state (LP offline), not watcher logic. Once LP recovers and spreads return, the watcher will resume firing immediately.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 319m, platform respawn timer failure cascades

LP is Vulture's primary counterparty (79% of 28 settled deals). Offline 319m; respawn fallback 199m+ overdue (armed=false, pidAlive=false last run). No two-sided liquidity → edges collapsed to at-oracle spreads (≤0.3%). Vulture cannot fulfill its mission without LP supply.

Prioritize manual restart of LP-Maker-Matheus (87.5% of fleet deal volume depends on it) or fix platform respawn timer mechanism. This is a core/SDK issue, not an agent issue.

Vulture correctly idle: no edges >1.25% detectable with LP offline. Book shows only at-oracle swaps (w28: 'wrapped-token and at-oracle only'); recent wakes (w25 'all edges ≤0.3%', w26–w29 'quiet book') confirm counterparty starvation. This is a market fault, not agent fault. Resume once LP recovers.

LP HUB OFFLINE, PLATFORM RESPAWN FAILED

87.5% of recent 16 deals (14 Swap); hub-dependent

Mimic-Ljuba ↔ Polymarket-Ljuba only; sparse

1 intent stalled 4111m (Perpetual, oldest in open book)

Zero intents posted 5h+ (option-writer paused, option-taker starved)

Index-Maker/Taker undeployed (0 wakes lifetime, armed=false)

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew, Arb-Hunter-Tom, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Polymarket-Ljuba}

OFFLINE 319m, respawn fallback dropped (19:19 UTC deadline missed, 199m+ overdue

Vulture-Andrew ⇄ {Rebalancer-Lior, Arb-Hunter-Tom, 0xBd6a…9863, 0x5F79…CB6D}

LIMITED, edge threshold 1.25% unmet; residual at-oracle ≤0.3%

Polymarket-Ljuba ⇄ {Mimic-Ljuba, Bear-Yosher}

SPARSE, 1 settlement lifetime; Intent #414 (Bear-Yosher) unfilled 100+ min, corr

DORMANT, zero intents posted 5h+ (option-writer Engine 1 paused post-6-rejection

UNDEPLOYED (0 wakes lifetime, armed=false, pidAlive=false both); circular bootst

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed w44 17:19 UTC; scheduled 60m fallback (18:19 UTC) never executed

319m offline; nextFallbackMin=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false confirm respawn process never spawned

Step 1: 'platform respawn mechanism unexecuted'; platform timer promise dropped in event loop (core watcher.ts issue)

LP-Maker offline 319m (platform respawn failure)

87.5% of pre-crash deal flow blocked; 13+ agents counterparty-starved; only 2 inter-agent deals post-crash

14 of 16 recent settled deals routed through LP; post-crash: only Mimic-Ljuba ↔ Polymarket-Ljuba (BinaryBet) + option rotation; 11 other agents in summary cite LP as sole/primary counterparty

LP offline; intents #583/#601 (Polymarket sAAPL swaps, 4-5% edges) expired unfilled

Polymarket-Ljuba abandoned Swap market, reverts to BinaryBet-only strategy

Polymarket summary: 'intents #583/#601 had no alternative taker; expired unfilled'; current watcher fires on stop/forward/binary, not swap initiation

LP offline; Intent #414 (Bear-Yosher binary, −25pp taker edge) no counterparty

Intent #414 stalled 100+ min; correct refusal (not mispricing, fair signal)

Bear-Yosher summary: 'Intent #414 unfilled 100+ min at −25 to −35pp floor with zero takers'; Engine 2 DCA blocked (no LP swaps available)

Index-Maker undeployed (armed=false, 0 wakes lifetime) → zero LONG IndexBasket intents posted

Index-Taker can't launch (bootstrap blocked); IndexBasket market dead

Both Index-Maker and Index-Taker: wakes=0, armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, recent_wakes=[], settled_deals_detail=[]

Momentum-Nikita wake-script is non-functional stub (viem client imported but unused, comment: '// In real trading, you'd

Agent has no volatility measurement; idle across w2–w6 by accident (all <1pp gaps), not by design; only 1 deal settled (

Summary: 'wake-script stub with no oracle reads, unable to measure volatility which is the core of its mission'; 437m elapsed with single settlement

Platform timer dropped LP watcher fallback (199m+ overdue)

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed w44 17:19 UTC with scheduled 60m fallback to 18:19 UTC that never executed. Now 319m offline. Metrics confirm: nextFallbackMin=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false. 87.5% of pre-crash deal volume (14 of 16 recent settled deals) routed through LP. Post-crash: only 2 inter-agent deals (Mimic ↔ Polymarket BinaryBet, rotation fill). 13+ agents cite LP as primary/sole counterparty; all are now starved.

armWatcher scheduled fallback deadline 18:19 UTC never fired; Step 1 confirms 'platform respawn mechanism unexecuted'; recent deals count (14/16 LP-dependent pre-crash vs 2 post-crash inter-agent only); per-agent summaries: Rebalancer-Lior

(a) IMMEDIATE: manually restart LP-Maker-Matheus process to restore hub; (b) POST-INCIDENT: audit armWatcher promise chain in platform/watcher.ts event loop (dropped scheduled fallback promise); add alarm on overdue fallback timers >120m

Open book stale: 6 intents unfilled 2.8d+ (residual market illiquid without LP)

5 open intents, oldest Perpetual intent (0xF57a…9444) unfilled 4111 minutes (2.8 days) at fair oracle pricing (5 USDC → 5 USDC, no edge). Book: 2 Swap (15 USDC ↔ 0.000243 BTC/0.009116 ETH, 33m left), 1 BinaryBet (Stacker-Massimo, 355m left), 1 Perpetual (4103m left), 1 BinaryBet (Bear-Yosher, 690m left). Zero takers in residual. Conversion 10.7% (74/692) collapsed post-LP. Swing-Nikita flagged 'thin-book issue, not agent error'; residua

Open intents: 0xF57a…9444 [Perpetual] 4103m unfilled; Step 1: 'oldest unfilled 2.8d (Perpetual, 4111m)'; post-crash inter-agent deals = 2 only (vs 14 pre-crash routed via LP); Swing-Nikita summary: 'w11 SSV fade (-1.89% dislocation) expired

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus (primary fix, restores depth); clean stale intents >24h post-resolution

Index market bootstrap blocked: Index-Maker/Taker undeployed (circular)

Index-Maker (0 wakes lifetime, armed=false, pidAlive=false) and Index-Taker (0 wakes lifetime, armed=false, pidAlive=false) both undeployed. Index-Maker must post LONG IndexBasket intents first, but platform deployment never invoked. Circular blocker: neither can init; IndexBasket market zero volume lifetime.

Both agents: wakes=0, armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, recent_wakes=[], settled_deals_detail=[]; Step 1: 'Index-Maker/Index-Taker undeployed (zero wakes lifetime, armed=false/pidAlive=false) — circular bootstrap blocker

Deploy Index-Maker in platform scheduler to post initial LONG IndexBasket intents; unblocks Index-Taker launch

Momentum-Nikita watch script non-functional (placeholder code, no oracle read)

Wake-script is stub with viem client imported but unused. runWatchLoop logs 'polling...' with comment '// In real trading, you'd cache prices from an oracle contract read'. Agent has no volatility measurement; coincidentally idle across w2–w6 (all <1pp gaps, no threshold breach) but NOT by design. Core mission (volatility arb) blocked. Only 1 deal settled (w1, BTC intent #28), then nothing despite 5 additional wakes over 437m.

Momentum-Nikita summary: 'wake-script is a non-functional stub with no oracle reads, unable to measure volatility which is the core of its mission'; 'Watcher fires on oracle breach (the core of volatility trading) [MISSING]'; w2–w6 idle by

Implement oracle read in Momentum-Nikita wake-script (replace stub comment with actual viem oracle read). Agent mission requires volatility threshold; currently unmeasurable. Priority: medium (secondary to LP restart, non-blocking for other agents).

BinaryBet market correct; counterparty starved by LP crash

Mimic-Ljuba ↔ Polymarket-Ljuba: 1 settlement. Intent #414 (Bear-Yosher, −25pp taker edge) correctly refused—sound risk discipline, not agent error. Unfilled 100+ min; root cause liquidity starvation (no maker supply), not mispricing. Bear-Yosher taker edge −25 to −35pp below 3pp floor; fair signal to hold. Engine 2 DCA blocked (no LP swaps). Engine 1 hard gate (takerInMoneyNow=false) blocks aligned binaries.

Recent deals: Mimic-Ljuba ↔ Polymarket-Ljuba [BinaryBet] settled (1 deal); Intent #414 unfilled 100+ min; Bear-Yosher summary: 'taker edge −25 to −35pp floor; no takers (fair pricing, no counterparty)'

LP restart unlocks binary maker depth; Mimic-Ljuba and Polymarket continue sound refusal until edge improves

Option market supply starved (not agent error)

Option-Taker scanned empty book across 9 wakes (5h+ window). Option-Writer paused Engine 1 w21 after 6 rejections—correct market signal, not mispricing. Zero Option intents posted since w8 19:29 UTC (5h+ ago). This is counterparty supply starvation (not agent logic error). Market awaiting recovery.

Option-Taker summary: 'Zero audited Option intents posted...5h+ ago; all 9 wakes scanned empty book (templateHash 0xcd5689...)'; Option-Writer summary: 'Engine 1 paused w21 post-6-rejections across all parameter ranges—sound market signal'

Monitor option supply post-LP-restart; expected to recover once LP depth returns (may source option inventory if profitable)

IMMEDIATE: Manually restart LP-Maker-Matheus process. Platform respawn timer dropped scheduled fallback at 18:19 UTC (now 199m+ overdue). Currently 319m offline. Restores hub access to 13+ dependent agents. Action: execute 'supervisorctl restart lp-maker-matheus' or equivalent; p

Fix platform armWatcher timer promise chain (watcher.ts event loop). Audit scheduled fallback mechanism: LP-Maker-Matheus fallback deadline 18:19 UTC never executed (nextFallbackMin=null, armed=false confirm process never spawned). Add alarm on overdue timers >120m; add test cove

Deploy Index-Maker/Index-Taker initialization in platform scheduler. Both undeployed (0 wakes, armed=false). Index-Maker must post LONG IndexBasket intents first; implement in scheduler so both launch together. Opens IndexBasket market (tertiary pair, currently zero volume lifeti

Momentum-Nikita: Implement oracle read in wake-script. Replace stub comment '// In real trading, you'd cache prices from an oracle contract read' with actual viem oracle read on each poll. Agent mission (volatility arbs) requires volatility threshold measurement; currently unmeas

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 319m (was 259m at last run); platform respawn mechanism unexecuted. Fleet survived on 14 of 16 recent deals (87.5%) involving LP's pre-crash inventory; only 2 inter-agent deals post-crash; open rate 0.87% (6 of 692 intents stalled).

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 319m, respawn fallback 199m+ overdue (platform timer failure) — cascading counterparty starvation for 13+ dependent agents

Index-Maker/Index-Taker undeployed (zero wakes lifetime, armed=false/pidAlive=false) — circular bootstrap blocker preventing IndexBasket market formation

Open book stale: 6 intents with oldest unfilled 2.8d (Perpetual, 4111m), indicating thin residual market without primary maker

Fleet decision: prioritize manual LP-Maker-Matheus restart (87.5% of recent deal volume depends on it) vs waiting for platform respawn fix

Missed 25-min wake window (w54-w56) spans primary targets #32/#89 (15:09–15:39). Did the latency arbitrage edge close by w56, or was it still available but missed?

Intent #414 (anchor bet, −25 to −35pp edge) sits 100+ min unfilled. Is this floor the market's correct verdict (bad bet) or a mispricing?

Undeployed (zero wakes lifetime, armed=false/pidAlive=false). Is deployment blocked on index-taker bootstrap, missing init script, or another precondition?

Undeployed (zero wakes, armed=false/pidAlive=false), circular blocker with index-maker. Which should launch first, or is there a missing bootstrap condition?

armWatcher fallback (60m, scheduled 18:19 UTC) never fired — now 199m+ overdue. Is process recoverable via manual restart, or did platform event-loop drop the timer?

Correctly refusing bet #414 for 8 wakes. When does refusal flip (bet expiry or oracle repricing)? Is watcher armed for that condition?

Wake-script is non-functional stub (no oracle reads, only 4h fallback timer). Is agent correctly idle by market conditions, or structurally blind to volatility?

Zero audited options in 5h+ (option-writer Engine 1 paused). When would Engine 1 resume posting (scheduled retry, market change, or manual trigger)?

Engine 1 correctly paused (6 rejections, market signal). Engine 2 (portfolio swaps #530/#533) blocked by LP offline. Should these intents expire unfilled or hold?

sAAPL swaps (#583/#601, 4.18%/5.17% edges) unfilled 60+ min with LP offline. When LP restarts, will these intents auto-settle or need reposting?

LP-Maker was 75% of settled deals. Intents #669/#670 posted pre-market-close (19:55 UTC). When LP restarts, are these intents still priced correctly or stale?

Watcher recovered (pidAlive=true, fallback 905m pending). Is agent re-posting sNVDA DCA swaps now, or still blocked by LP-Maker offline?

All 3 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker (offline 319m). Is agent re-posting fades since crash, or holding until LP restarts?

79% of deals ↔ LP (offline, unrecovering). Are residual book edges still >1.25% (Vulture's gate), or has LP's absence dried them up?

LP-Maker-Matheus respawn mechanism failed — armWatcher fallback (scheduled 60m post-crash, 18:19 UTC) never executed (now 199m+ overdue). Investigate: platform event-loop deadlock, process respawn reg

Index-Maker and Index-Taker undeployed (zero wakes lifetime, armed=false/pidAlive=false). Clarify initialization blocker: missing deployment script, circular bootstrap dependency, or unmet preconditio

Decision: prioritize manual LP-Maker-Matheus restart (87.5% of recent deal volume) vs waiting for platform respawn fix? Manual restart is highest-ROI short-term action.