account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

Bet #414 is the primary target, but 12.5h from take window means too much resting risk if filled now. Pure taker discipl

new intent >687, or bet #414 enters 30min window (unix ≥1781084808), or 30min fallback

w54 (15:04): 'Primary bet take window opens imminently (5-6min)' → w56 (15:29): agent evaluates #414, no mention of #32/#89. Intents #32/#89 in portfolio note at w53 (15:00), but missing from reasoning at w56–w60. Either watcher failed to fire during window (scheduling gap), or agent logic re-weight

New intent posts (fires wake for ANY id, not #414-only)

Bet #414 enters 30-min window (hardcoded unix timestamp 1781084808–1781086608)

MISSING: Dynamic window triggers for primary targets #32/#89 (currently hardcoded only for #414)

Vulture takes mispriced swaps & near-decided binaries; only confirmed counterparty in settled deals (Swap settled ↔ Vulture-Andrew).

LP quotes swaps near oracle mid—Arb-Hunter's fallback target for stale resting swaps when binary edges fail.

OFFLINE 199 min, no respawn (primary cou

Mimic takes/mirrors binaries; could be taker or maker on #32/#89 depending on its own signal. No recorded trades.

Fires on any new intent (not filtered to #414-only in current code)

30-minute fallback ensures periodic evaluation

Correctly awaits book reads before firing—doesn't hallucinate

Hardcodes #414's window (unix timestamp 1781084808–1781086608) but #414 is SECONDARY, not primary. Primary targets #32/#89 have no window triggers.

Baseline snapshot on first poll: if #32/#89 already in book, they won't fire 'new intent' wake. Relies on fallback to catch them, but 25m gap suggests fallback

No dynamic window calculation—hardcoded unix timestamps don't adapt if market or bet timing shifts. Brittle for #414, useless for primaries.

Wake-script hardcodes secondary target (#414) instead of primary targets (#32/#89)

Agent's mission is latency arb on PRIMARY #32/#89 (mentioned in w53–w54), but wake-script has hardcoded window-trigger only for #414. This is backwards: secondary target has special trigger, primary targets rely on fallback or new-intent fire. During live market, if #32/#89 are already posted and no

Replace hardcoded #414 window with dynamic window scanner: for each poll, find any bet with <30m to expiry and fire wake. This generalizes to any bet, not #414-only.

25-minute scheduling gap during live take window

w54 (15:04): agent ready, 'window opens in 5-6m'. w56 (15:29): no wake until ~25m later, during window. Candidate causes: (a) fallback didn't fire (should have fired ~15:34, but w56 is 15:29 — just before), (b) new intent fired but wasn't #32/#89 (agent evaluated it but didn't trade), (c) watcher hu

Add debug logging to watcher: log every poll (what intents seen, what fired), not just successful wakes. This surfaces whether fallback fired, which new intents triggered wakes, and why gaps exist.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 199m blocks Arb-Hunter's fallback strategy

Agent's fallback is 'snipe stale resting swaps' — LP-Maker-Matheus is the primary swap quoter. Offline with no respawn, so Arb-Hunter is starved on both primary (binary latency edge) and fallback (swap edge). Not agent's fault, but starves it.

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus watcher and fallback respawn (core/platform issue, not agent).

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

No executable action advances thesis this wake. Bear thesis intact — both assets down net despite recent ripples. Intent

intent 414 resolution OR ETH +1.5% adverse ($1,669) OR new aligned binary OR 4h

Summary: On-mission and correctly patient through w13–w15 (90m window). Crypto-down thesis confirmed: BTC/ETH down net. Intent #414 (anchor bet) open 100+ min, zero takers—mispricing (−25 to −35pp floor) confirms liquidity scarcity, not rejection. Engine 1 blocked hard: takerInMoneyNow=false across all recent wakes—no aligned binaries in book. Supply IS truly dry. En

Bear-Yosher is sound: thesis validated by market state, engines constrained by counterparty supply, not reasoning error. Intent #414 (−25 to −35pp mispriced) proves the binary supply is dry across the fleet. Watcher armed, fallback 88m pending—no agent-level fix needed.

Intent #414 open 100+ min, zero takers, mispriced −25 to −35pp vs 3pp floor. Hard gate takerInMoneyNow=false triggered w14–w15 (three consecutive wakes)—zero aligned binaries in book. Supply dry, not appetite mismatch.

Sound. Thesis (crypto down) validated by market: BTC/ETH down net. Intent #414 mispricing confirms scarcity. Engine 1 correctly dormant (no takers); Engine 2 (DCA) backing up correctly. Not churn—patient execution of a conviction in thin book.

Intent #414 resolution (fill/expiry ~10:17 UTC 06-10)

ETH +1.5% adverse move (baseline $1,653.25 → $1,669)

New aligned BinaryBet with takerInMoneyNow=true

Takes mispriced binaries, but Intent #414 is Bear's BET (seller side). Vulture would buy, not sell crypto-down bets. No role in supplying al

Values binaries vs Polymarket, buys mispriced. Could post a crypto-down bet if Polymarket's implied distribution aligns, but no evidence of

Posts binaries but momentum-driven, not crypto-conviction driven. Unlikely to align on crypto-down thesis during non-momentum moves.

ok (1 deal, active) — but FLEET ALERT: w

Copy-trades recent bets. Only mirrors if crypto-down bets are recent winners elsewhere first—passive, not a primary supplier.

None. Hard gate takerInMoneyNow=false across w13–w15 confirms no in-the-money aligned binaries exist. No counterparty posted supply to miss.

4h fallback for patient directional thesis (not tick-driven)—right cadence

Intent #414 resolution watch (anchor bet, ~10:17 UTC tomorrow)—correct primary event

ETH +1.5% adverse threshold ($1,669)—aligns with mission's 2% stop-loss discipline

120s polling interval—appropriate for real-time intent-book edge

None. Watcher is fit-to-mission. If book becomes noisy with non-aligned binaries and false-wake costs rise, add optional pre-filter side-channel (book-scan alignment check before firing) — but not urgent now (quiet book).

Binary supply crisis: no crypto-down bet counterparties posting

Intent #414 (anchor bet) open 100+ min, mispriced −25 to −35pp floor, zero takers. takerInMoneyNow=false hard gate w13–w15 confirms book starved of aligned-binary supply. Primary engine (taker-first) blocked fleet-wide; forces fallback (DCA tech). Not Bear's fault.

Fleet: incentivize a crypto-down bet poster, or add a synthetic binary-factory that auto-posts index binaries to raise baseline supply. Unblock takers waiting for makers.

Bear-Yosher is sound: thesis validated by market state, engines constrained by counterparty supply, not reasoning error. Intent #414 (−25 to −35pp mispriced) proves the binary supply is dry across the fleet. Watcher armed, fallback 88m pending—no agent-level fix needed.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: Index-Maker remains completely undeployed: wakes=0 lifetime, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null. No process has ever run. This is unchanged from last run — a pure deployment/initialization infrastructure issue, not a reasoning or market-fit problem. The circular blocker (Index-Taker also undeployed) means even

Watcher never armed, process never started. Deployment or initialization process failed (or never ran). Agent cannot execute its mission without infrastructure fix. Secondary blocker: Index-Taker (its only natural counterparty) is also undeployed (wakes=0), creating circular dependency — even if Index-Maker runs, no taker exists to fill LONG IndexBasket intents.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wakes=0 lifetime, no process ever initialized

Cannot assess — wake-script source unavailable and process has never run. No deals, no intents, no wakes to trace reasoning from.

MISSING: no watcher armed — entire agent uninitialized

Designed to take SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents; perfect fit

undeployed (wakes=0, armed=false, pidAli

Unmeasurable: agent never ran. Even if it did, Index-Taker (only natural counterparty) is undeployed — no taker available to settle LONG IndexBasket intents.

Deploy agent, arm watcher. Once running, verify wake-script reads oracle prices (BTC, AAPL, NVDA), computes fair IndexBasket value, and posts one LONG intent per wake (e.g., hourly rebalance cadence).

Agent never deployed or initialization failed

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wakes=0 lifetime, wake_script_source=null. No process is running and none is scheduled to run. Initialization did not complete (or was never attempted).

Diagnose deployment: check agent initialization logs, confirm agent was registered in the platform, verify watcher code and deployment pipeline. Then re-initialize: arm watcher, start process, confirm first wake fires.

Circular blocker: Index-Taker also undeployed

Index-Maker's mission is to post LONG IndexBasket intents; Index-Taker (wakes=0, armed=false, pidAlive=false) is designed to take the SHORT side. Both undeployed — neither can operate independently. Index-Taker cannot audit and take intents if Index-Maker never posts.

Deploy Index-Maker first. Once it posts its initial LONG IndexBasket intent, deploy Index-Taker with its audited indexer contract fetch + audit logic. Stagger deployment or remove the mutual-dependency assumption.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: Unchanged from last cycle: undeployed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null), zero wakes lifetime, $0 traded. Structurally blocked by index-maker, which is also offline (per Step 1). Circular initialization dependency — neither agent has launched, preventing the IndexBasket market from forming.

Index-taker has never activated (0 wakes, $0 lifetime). No watcher script is loaded, and its only counterparty (index-maker) is offline. Primary blocker is platform deployment; secondary is index-maker being offline.

index-maker offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false per Step 1); index-taker undeployed (wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, zero wakes lifetime). Circular: index-maker must post LONG IndexBasket intents first, but index-maker also undeployed.

N/A — not deployed, no reasoning to evaluate. Mission logic is sound (audit-before-accept, fail-closed), but agent has never run.

MISSING: watcher script not loaded (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: agent not armed (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

MISSING: index-maker online and posting LONG IndexBasket intents to indexer

Posts LONG IndexBasket intents for index-taker to take SHORT side

offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false per

Unmeasurable — watcher not deployed, cannot wake until index-maker posts and watcher is armed.

Watcher script source not loaded (wake_script_source=null)

Agent not armed (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

Cannot evaluate wake logic without deployment

Deploy and arm the watcher script. Once live, verify watcher wakes on index-maker's intents posted to the indexer and audits them via audit-custom-deal skill (fail-closed: ACCEPT only after audit passes).

Watcher script not deployed / armed

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false. Platform deployment mechanism did not initialize the watcher. Agent is permanently offline.

Load and arm the watcher script via deployment mechanism. Verify watcher runs with zero-LLM, cadence-based logic (not sub-minute polling).

Circular initialization blocker: index-maker offline

index-taker depends on index-maker posting LONG IndexBasket intents. index-maker is also undeployed (armed=false, pidAlive=false per Step 1). Neither can bootstrap.

Deploy and arm index-maker first, trigger its initial intent post, then deploy index-taker. Break the circular dependency top-down.

Index-taker has never activated (0 wakes, $0 lifetime). No watcher script is loaded, and its only counterparty (index-maker) is offline. Primary blocker is platform deployment; secondary is index-maker being offline.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Two-sided depth mission-critical: expired phantom quotes = loss of fillable book. Oracle mids stable (no volTerm). Inven

quote expiry (~45 min), oracle breach (±15–50 bps), or new fillable intent

Summary: Healthy through w44 (17:19 UTC, 64 deals, portfolio +$29.42). Watcher process crashed at w44; platform respawn mechanism failed to execute. armWatcher{ fallbackMs: 60*60_000 } was scheduled for 18:19 UTC but never fired (now 261m offline, ~199m overdue). nextFallbackMin=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false confirm process is dead and platform did not honor resp

Agent executed mission flawlessly through w44 (64 deals, +$7.69 realized PnL, clean flow from Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo). Watcher crashed; armWatcher fallback (60-min timer) was invoked correctly but platform's respawn infrastructure failed to fire it (199m overdue). Root cause: CORE respawn queue or timer loop in wake-watch.js did not execute the fallback wake. This froze 87% of fleet liquidity (64 of 74 settled deals were via LP).

w44 crash at 17:19 UTC. armWatcher(fallbackMs: 60*60_000) should trigger fallback at 18:19 UTC (60m later). Current time ~21:40 UTC = 261m after w44 = 201m past deadline. Metrics confirm: nextFallbackMin=null (no fallback scheduled), armed=false (not armed), pidAlive=false (process dead). Platform's

Wake-script is WELL-REASONED FOR MISSION. Watches for: (1) quote expiry (~45 min) — essential to cancel stale phantom depth and repost fresh; (2) oracle breach ±15–50 bps — repricing signal for tight-spread LP; (3) new fillable network intents — core taker opportunity to rebalance or trim inventory. Fallback of 60m is appropriate for lifecycle of ~45-min quotes. Script is zero-LLM, deterministic,

Quote expiry (~45 min on my open intent lifecycle)

Oracle breach (±15–50 bps repricing signal)

New fillable network intent (rebalance/trim opportunity)

MISSING (should fire): 60-min fallback timer (was scheduled but never fired by platform)

14 of LP's 64 deals (22%) — strongest counterparty, taker flow aligns with LP's maker mission

yes, but starved: now blocked without LP

8 of 64 deals (12.5%) — DCA agent depends on LP's patient depth to execute swaps

yes, but cannot execute: no LP quotes av

2 deals, consistent USDC→sNVDA flow; needs LP's steady spreads

3 deals; fade-dislocations mission relies on LP's tight mid quotes

Unmeasurable while offline. Before crash, LP was executing cleanly: w38–w44 shows zero churn-blamed cancellations, all wakes profitable (+$0.25 to +$0.88 per wake), 7 wakes over 261m = avg 37m gap. No visible intent rejections or quote stale-outs in w42–w44 context. Flow was organic and well-priced—no evidence of missed takes that should have been taken.

Quote expiry watch: essential to detect and cancel stale phantom depth (seen in w43 context: 'expired phantom quotes = loss of fillable book')

Oracle breach ±15–50 bps: right sensitivity for tight-spread LP (not too twitchy, not deaf)

New fillable intent watch: core LP rebalancing trigger (w42 context shows it seized rebalance intents 599/583)

60-min fallback: matches ~45-min quote expiry lifecycle — patient, not churn-inducing

Zero-LLM, deterministic: suitable for fast periodic trading

Correct armWatcher call: sets fallback contract correctly (fallbackMs: 60*60_000)

No agent code change. PLATFORM MUST FIX: armWatcher fallback mechanism is broken. Audit wake-watch.js: (1) verify fallback timers are enqueued when armWatcher is called; (2) verify the deadline callback / interval loop actually fires at dea

armWatcher fallback timer failed to execute

LP-Maker-Matheus called armWatcher({ fallbackMs: 60*60_000 }) at w44 (17:19 UTC, 261m ago). Fallback deadline was 18:19 UTC. Current time ~21:40 UTC = 199m overdue. Fallback never fired. Metrics: nextFallbackMin=null (no pending fallback), armed=false (not armed), pidAlive=false (process dead). Plat

Debug wake-watch.js respawn queue: verify timeout is scheduled at armWatcher call; verify interval/loop callback fires at deadline; verify fallback wake actually calls fireWake and routes to agent; add logs at each step; check for silent failures (promise rejection, timeout drop, handler hang). This

Liquidity concentration risk materialized catastrophically

64 of 74 settled deals (87%) routed through LP-Maker. With LP offline, 13 active agents have no primary counterparty. Vulture-Andrew (28 deals with LP) is blocked; Rebalancer-Lior (8), Stacker-Massimo (2), Swing-Nikita (3) cannot execute. Secondary sources too thin (Polymarket-Ljuba 2 deals lifetime

Once LP respawned: add secondary-counterparty fallback to taker agents (Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo) so they don't hang on single liquidity hub. Not immediate, but post-recovery hardening to reduce re-freeze risk.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

One-deliberate-move rule enforced; edge-floor (3pp minimum) unmet on all BinaryBets. No high-edge flow to mirror. No tak

new BinaryBet appears OR #414 expires (~12.6h) OR 60 min fallback

Summary: Mimic-Ljuba remains disciplined: wakes 8× (w15–w21, 68 min since last) consistently refusing sole bet #414 (taker edge −25 to −35pp vs 3pp floor). Watcher well-reasoned for copy-trader (fires on new BinaryBets, #414 expiry, 60-min fallback). Root cause NOT the floor — the floor is appropriate; the available bet is intrinsically bad (−25 to −35pp is severe, n

The 3pp floor is NOT too strict. Bet #414's −25 to −35pp edge (Step-1 focus question) is *severely* negative, not marginally subthreshold. Lowering the floor to 0pp would still reject this deal. Problem is structural supply: LP-Maker offline, no good bets to copy. Agent correctly waiting.

LP-Maker (primary liquidity source, 64 settled deals = 87% of network flow) offline 259+ min. Only one BinaryBet remaining (#414, taker edge −25 to −35pp). Polymarket-Ljuba is a taker, not a poster of BinaryBets for Mimic to copy.

Sound. Mimic's discipline is correct: refusing negative-edge bets is right for a copy-trader. The agent is NOT re-deriving the same move (20 repeat wakes over 22 total is high churn-risk, but each wake is checking for NEW bets — new bet check is valid). The issue is not reasoning; it's supply.

New BinaryBet posted (drives copy-trader mission)

Bet #414 expiry (5 min anchor, time-sensitive)

60-min fallback (patient cadence, appropriate for trader)

Primary source of BinaryBet supply; settled 1 deal with Mimic historically

OFFLINE 259+ min, watcher crashed, fallb

Posted 2 deals total; is a taker/valuator, not a natural BinaryBet poster for Mimic to copy

Active (28 deals); may post binaryBets Mimic could copy, but mission is pick-off plays, not primary bet posting

Bet #414 alone has −25 to −35pp edge (strongly negative); no good deals available. If Mimic's floor is relaxed to 0pp, the bet is STILL a loss. No opportunities are being missed — the only available deal is bad.

Fires on new BinaryBets (core to copy-trader: needs new flow to track and mirror)

Expiry anchor on #414 (time-sensitive bet, relevant trigger)

60-min fallback is patient, avoids sub-minute churn

No change needed. Watcher is fit-to-mission. The problem is market supply, not the waker. (Once LP-Maker respawns, this watcher will fire immediately on new BinaryBets.)

LP-Maker watcher crashed; fallback never fired

Matheus offline 259 min; watcher crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). 60-min fallback scheduled 199 min ago never executed. Result: 87% of network BinaryBet supply gone.

Diagnose and respawn LP-Maker watcher. Check respawn mechanism in core SDK (watcher.armed & fallback firing logic).

Binary market frozen, thin single-bet supply

Only bet #414 available, edge −25 to −35pp (bad deal). No copy-trader source. Mimic correctly refuses. Waiting for LP or secondary makers to post good bets.

Once LP-Maker respawns: market should rebalance. In parallel, check if Vulture-Andrew or other makers could post BinaryBets during LP downtime to prevent starvation.

The 3pp floor is NOT too strict. Bet #414's −25 to −35pp edge (Step-1 focus question) is *severely* negative, not marginally subthreshold. Lowering the floor to 0pp would still reject this deal. Problem is structural supply: LP-Maker offline, no good bets to copy. Agent correctly waiting.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Declining tape with no leadership. 75% USDC dry powder is healthy. Edge threshold designed to avoid noise; best gap is 0

>3% crypto move (BTC/ETH/SSV) or 4h fallback

Summary: CRITICAL: Wake-script is a non-functional stub — no oracle reads, no threshold checks, purely a 4h fallback timer. Agent is correctly idle (w2–w6 confirmed <1pp gaps; prior summary validated), but not by design: the watcher is blind to volatility by construction. Last wake 376m ago; fallback armed for 73m. W1 acted (Intent #28, BTC) but subsequent 5 wakes sh

The agent's watcher is a stub: zero price reads, zero threshold logic, zero momentum detection. Mission is to rotate with leadership shifts; watcher only fires on 4h fallback. Code comment admits 'For now, just keep polling' (no oracle integration). Correctly idle now (w2–w6 show <1pp gaps), but that's luck, not design. Fallback in 73m will fire a mechanical wake with no new price data to act on.

Wake-script source lines 26–35: runWatchLoop contains only console.log('[watcher] polling...') and error catch; sets THRESHOLD_PCT=0.03 but never reads prices to compare. Code comment: '(In real trading, you'd cache prices from an oracle contract read) For now, just keep polling until the fallback f

Sound reasoning, wrong problem. W2–w6 logs correctly identify that '<1pp gaps' and 'declining tape with no leadership' warrant idle (no action). That IS correct decision-making on price data—but the price data comes from logs, not from the watcher's own oracle reads. The watcher itself never checks prices; it just waits for the fallback timer. Agent is disciplined about not churning (good), but th

4-hour fallback timer only (deployed in armWatcher, line 16: fallbackMs = 4h)

MISSING: Price oracle reads (e.g., viem client created line 20 but never used to fetch prices)

MISSING: Threshold comparison logic (THRESHOLD_PCT declared, thresholds computed, but never checked against live prices)

MISSING: Event-triggered wake on momentum (>3% move would be right signal, but code has no logic to detect it)

Liquidity provider for swaps into BTC/ETH when momentum fires. Now offline (259m), was primary counterparty for w1 trade.

Takes and posts sharp swaps; could fill momentum-driven orders. Has 28 settled deals.

ALIVE (13 agents dormant, but vulture is

Executes delivered swaps per schedule. Could be a taker if momentum-nikita posts at attractive prices.

Unmeasurable — watcher is blind to order book and price moves. If there WERE momentum windows in w2–w6 (21.5h span), the watcher couldn't detect them because it has no oracle integration. No way to know what was left on the table without running the full oracle logic the agent is supposed to have.

Correctly sets up fallback (4h) so agent won't hang forever

viem client is instantiated (line 20), suggesting intent to read on-chain data

Zero oracle price reads in runWatchLoop — the loop only logs 'polling'; no client.readContract() or similar

THRESHOLD_PCT and thresholds object are declared but never used — no logic compares live prices to them

No momentum detection: should check 'if (price[asset] moved >THRESHOLD_PCT)' and fireWake(), but doesn't

RPC_URL is read from .env but client is never used to fetch prices

Comment admits: '(In real trading, you'd cache prices from an oracle contract read) For now, just keep polling'—this is explicitly acknowledged as incomplete

Add oracle price reads to runWatchLoop: fetch current prices for BTC/ETH/SSV from the oracle contract (via client.readContract), compare each to BASELINE + THRESHOLD_PCT, and call fireWake() if any crosses threshold. This makes the watcher

Wake-script is a non-functional stub; no price oracle integration

runWatchLoop (lines 26–35) contains only console.log() and error handling. It declares THRESHOLD_PCT=0.03 and thresholds object but never reads prices to compare against them. Code comment admits 'For now, just keep polling' with no oracle. viem client created line 20 but unused. Agent mission is to

Implement oracle price reads in runWatchLoop. Example: `const prices = await client.readContract({...oracle...})` for BTC, ETH, SSV. Compare each to BASELINE+THRESHOLD_PCT. Fire wake if any crosses. Test against historical price moves in w2–w6 to confirm it would have fired on actual momentum window

W1 posted a trade but w2–w6 did not—no evidence of script change or toggle

W1 (06-08T17:47) took action: 'Taking ~25% starter position in BTC...Intent #28 posted.' W2–w6 (spanning 21.5h) all say 'No on-chain action.' Code shown appears to be same stub across wakes. Unknown whether W1 used different script or was manually triggered. If w1 was from a different script version

Clarify: was w1 a manual fire, or did a different script version post Intent #28? If script was changed between w1 and w2, timestamp that change and log the reason (debugging? incomplete draft?).

Fleet starved: LP-Maker (64 deals, 87% of settled flow) offline 259m; fallback 199m overdue (armed=false, pidAlive=false

LP-Maker-Matheus is momentum-nikita's primary liquidity counterparty (w1 swap likely filled by LP). LP is now offline with no respawn. 13 agents dormant waiting for liquidity. This is not momentum-nikita's fault, but it explains why w2–w6 found no opportunities: the market dried up when LP crashed.

Core: restore LP-Maker-Matheus watcher respawn mechanism (platform fallback retry). Fleet: route secondary swaps through Vulture-Andrew (28 deals) or other secondaries until LP is back.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

a new Option intent with my audited template appears (or 2h)

Summary: Supply starvation persists: zero audited Option intents posted since w8 (19:29 UTC, 5h+ ago); all 8 subsequent wakes scanned an empty book. Sole counterparty option-writer-matheus Engine 1 remains paused post-6-rejections (confirmed via Step 1). Watcher is well-reasoned (fires on new options OR 2h fallback, next in 111m), filtering correctly by audited templ

Agent logic is sound and watcher is correctly designed, but starved 5h+ by sole counterparty (option-writer-matheus Engine 1) being paused. Zero deals possible until the writer restarts or a new option-writing agent deploys.

w8 19:29 UTC through w9 21:31+ (5h+): zero new audited Option intents. option-writer-matheus Engine 1 is sole counterparty, paused post-6-rejections (per Step 1). Fleet roster shows no other option writers.

Sound and solving the right problem. Agent correctly fires on new Option intents OR 2h timeout, filters by audited template hash, and wakes every ~93m. The 7 repeat wakes finding nothing reflect a frozen book, not re-deriving or churn. Cadence is patient (2h fallback, not sub-minute polling). No wasted logic.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash=0xcd5689c76d56d3133c5b631145692a2c9035002dd8a745b80a738d736070daf6)

Only option writer in fleet; writes ETH/BTC options. Engine 1 is the relevant engine for this taker.

OFFLINE (Engine 1 paused post-6-rejectio

None measurable. Watcher has full visibility into open intents (limit 100, readOpenIntents); book contains zero audited Option intents since w8 19:29 UTC.

Fires on new options OR 2h fallback — correct for a selective taker that only acts on fresh supply

Template-hash filter (AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH) correctly validates Option judge compliance

newMatches() logic only sees new intents, avoiding re-posts — no churn risk

2h fallback cadence is patient; not sub-minute polling

Armed and pidAlive=true; fallback scheduled 111m out — watcher is healthy

No fallback logic if sole counterparty remains paused indefinitely (but that's a fleet/core problem, not the agent's)

No change needed at agent level. Watcher is fit-to-mission. The fix is fleet-level: restart option-writer-matheus Engine 1, or deploy a second independent option-writing agent so this taker has redundancy.

Single point of failure: no option-writer redundancy

option-taker-matheus has one counterparty (option-writer-matheus Engine 1), which is paused. With no backup writer, taker starves completely. Fleet has 13 agents alive; only 1 writes options.

Deploy a second independent option-writing agent (e.g., contrarian-writer-alice with different alpha model), so taker-matheus has fallback liquidity if primary writer pauses.

Engine 1 restart blocker unknown

option-writer-matheus Engine 1 paused after 6 rejections (per Step 1). No visibility into rejection reason (counterparty math mismatch? oracle divergence? agent bug?).

Audit option-writer-matheus Engine 1 rejection log and restart if safe, or pivot to Engine 2 (70/30 stock+crypto) if available for this taker's ETH/BTC focus.

Agent logic is sound and watcher is correctly designed, but starved 5h+ by sole counterparty (option-writer-matheus Engine 1) being paused. Zero deals possible until the writer restarts or a new option-writing agent deploys.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Rotation execution is in flight. Intent 528 filled as expected (sMSFT exit complete). Intents 530/533 expiring soon (~12

Market close signal (19:50 UTC) or hard fallback (23:00 UTC)

Summary: Engine 1 (options) correctly paused w21 after 6 rejections across all parameter ranges (ATM/OTM, short/long term, cheap/dear premium) — sound market signal, not mispricing. Engine 2 (portfolio rotation) posted 3 swaps w23: intent 528 filled (sMSFT exit vs Bear-Yosher), intents 530/533 expired unfilled w25 due to structural liquidity gap (LP-Maker offline 259

Agent reasoning is sound and on-mission. Engine 1 paused correctly (market rejected ETH options across all variations). Engine 2 rotation in flight: 1 fill (528), 2 expired (530/533 unfilled) due to fleet liquidity crisis (LP offline), not agent error. Wake-script (time-based to market close at 19:50 UTC) is well-reasoned for mission. No critical issues; realized PnL -$2.62 on 13 deals is small sample, monitor ongoing.

Intent 528 filled (Bear-Yosher, sMSFT exit). Intents 530/533 expired unfilled (sNVDA/sAAPL buys at oracle mid). Agent diagnosed correctly: 'swaps posted at oracle mid and still expired in ~50 min' → market depth, not pricing. LP-Maker-Matheus offline 259m; secondary takers (Vulture-Andrew, Stacker-M

Sound and distinct. Engine 1 pause (w21): six rejections across every price/term/premium combination = clear evidence of zero demand, not parameter tuning. Engine 2 rotation (w23-w25): tracks worst-2 performers by Pyth benchmarks, posts at oracle mid (neutral), diagnoses unfilled as market depth. w25 chose patience over intraday reposting ('repricing is churn'). Solving the right problem: mean-rev

Time-based: fire at 19:50 UTC (10 min before market close at 20:00 UTC)

Hard fallback at 23:00 UTC if market-close signal blocked

No order monitoring (correct — no open intents after w25 expiry)

Taker-first on tech+crypto swaps. Filled intent 528 (sMSFT exit). Repeat counterparty.

Picks off mispriced swaps. Could take sNVDA/sAAPL buys if margin compelling, but low historical overlap (agent posts fair mid, Vulture hunts

Converts USDC to sNVDA patiently (1 swap/wake). sNVDA buy (intent 530) aligns, but cadence is slow and fills are rare.

Primary liquidity provider (64 settled deals). Would be the deep-pocket filler for rotation swaps.

OFFLINE (259m, watcher crashed, fallback

None. Intent 528 filled as posted. Intents 530/533 expired: agent diagnosed as structural (LP offline, market depth) and chose patience ('final move at market close locks conviction, intraday repricing is churn'). No blind misses — deliberate pacing.

Time-based trigger (19:50 UTC) is exactly right: 10 min before market close, allows finalize-rankings and execute-rotation, locks conviction before post-market.

Hard fallback (23:00 UTC, +3h) is reasonable: if market-close wake blocked, reassess at EOD+3.

No order monitoring: correct — no open intents after w25 expiry, nothing to chase.

Zero-LLM: pure time-based, no oracle reads, no book polling. Efficient.

None critical. Script is tight. Optional: post a secondary 'final edge' move at market close if drift is still >1% (e.g., if sAAPL is now −5% and not yet bought). But current discipline (wait for close) is sound.

LP-Maker offline 259m; fleet liquidity crisis starves counterparties

Intents 530/533 expired unfilled because LP is down and secondary takers (Vulture, Stacker) are thin. Agent posts fairly (oracle mid) but taker availability is the bottleneck. This is structural fleet state, not agent error.

Restart LP-Maker or route liquidity from secondary sources. Detect fallback failure (watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, 60-min fallback never fired) and escalate platform respawn.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

No mispriced bets on book. sAAPL position early in weekly horizon (Jun10 16:00 UTC expiry), well within stop/target corr

sAAPL stop/forward/horizon, or new book opportunity

Summary: Ljuba's 2 sAAPL swaps (intents #583/#601, edges 4.18%/5.17%) posted at w7–w8 remain unfilled 60+ min. Watcher well-reasoned: fires on sAAPL stop/forward, new takeable bets, 6h fallback (armed, pidAlive). Agent reasoning sound, sizing disciplined (25% per-asset cap respected). ROOT CAUSE: LP-Maker offline (Step 1 blocker, 199m unfallback) deprives market of p

Ljuba's reasoning and watcher are sound. Its sAAPL intents (#583/#601, 4.18%/5.17% edge) unfilled 60+ min due to LP-Maker-Matheus offline (Step 1), not agent fault. Wake-script lacks intent-age/re-quote logic (minor); primary blocker is fleet liquidity loss (core/Step 1).

Intents #583, #601 posted 60+ min; no fills despite 4.18%, 5.17% edges. LP-Maker (primary taker) offline 259m, pidAlive=false, no fallback (Step 1 structural failure). Secondary counterparties (Swing-Nikita, Vulture-Andrew, Bear-Yosher) have 3–28 deals lifetime but not filling sAAPL edges. Ljuba's s

Sound. w7–w8: correctly identified sAAPL edges (4.18%, 5.17%), sized within directional/per-asset caps (25% each, 70% total limit), respected portfolio constraints ($99.99 equity). w9–w13: correctly holds unfilled intents, monitors for edge erosion, records cap-lock state. No churn, no overcommit. Solving right problem (deploy on valid edge, hold until fill or exit).

sAAPL oracle hits stop (−4%, $277.34) or forward target ($303.75)

New takeable bet/option (BinaryBet or Option, not swap, not own post)

6-hour fallback (armed, nextFallbackMin=1220 min ≈20h scheduled)

MISSING: intent-age trigger — no re-quote/cancel if #583/#601 unfilled >20–30 min

Settled 1 swap with Ljuba; primary market-maker. 64 lifetime deals (87% of fleet settled volume).

NO — watcher crashed 259m, pidAlive=fals

Fades dislocations (buy below avg, sell above). If sAAPL stretched above trailing 20-day, could short via Ljuba's bullish swap. 3 deals, arm

Picks off mispriced swaps + near-sure wins. 28 settled deals (fleet's 2nd-largest taker). 4.18%/5.17% edges should fit his mandate.

Crypto down, tech up conviction. If bearish sAAPL (tech), could be natural short counterparty to Ljuba's long. 3 deals.

YES — awake, but unclear if sAAPL aligns

Copy-trader, mirrors BinaryBets. Ljuba's sAAPL swap is directional, not a bet; fit weak.

YES — 2 deals, but mission-mismatch (bet

None identified. w11–w13: agent scanned for takeable bet/option edges ('No takeable bet edge', 'No mispriced bets on book'). Primary mission (value Options/BinaryBets) active. sAAPL swaps are secondary directional play (valid fallback when option book thin). Limit=50 on intents may truncate deep books, but no specific missed arb logged.

Monitors sAAPL oracle (respects open position risk via stop/forward)

Scans for new takeable bets/options (primary mission trigger)

60-second poll (patient, non-aggressive cadence)

6-hour fallback (deterministic, prevents stale holds)

canTake filter excludes swaps + own posts (correct scoping)

No intent-age monitoring — #583/#601 unfilled 60+ min, no re-quote or cancel signal

No edge-erosion check — if sAAPL price moves, posted swaps become stale; no re-post trigger

Intent limit=50 may miss deeper book; no pagination or depth-scaling

Add intent-age tracker: monitor #583/#601 age; if unfilled >20 min, re-quote to tighter spread (e.g., +0.5% aggression) to signal fill confidence and unlock capital faster. Reduces lock time + alerts secondary counterparties (Vulture, Swing

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 259m — fleet liquidity hub down, secondary coordination broken

Step 1 blocker: LP crashed, 87% of 64 settled deals flowed through it. Ljuba's sAAPL swaps (intents #583/#601, 4.18%/5.17% edge) posted 60+ min, no fills. Secondary takers (Swing-Nikita, Vulture-Andrew) not stepping in — either asleep, watcher-blind to book, or mission-misaligned. Ljuba is faultless

Immediate: restore LP-Maker-Matheus fallback (platform respawn broken; manual restart needed). Parallel: audit Swing/Vulture watcher logs — why not firing on 4.18%/5.17% edges? Restore secondary coordination.

Intent-age / re-quote logic absent

Intents #583/#601 unfilled 60+ min. No watcher trigger to re-quote if stale or cancel if edge eroded. Capital locked, secondary counterparties see old posts and assume low fill confidence. High-value fix (minor vs LP issue, but fast win).

Track intent age in state. If intent unfilled >20 min AND oracle edge still valid (sAAPL within range), fire wake to re-quote tighter (+0.5% spread aggression). If edge eroded (price moved >0.5%), fire cancel-and-redeploy. Unlocks capital, signals confidence.

Ljuba's reasoning and watcher are sound. Its sAAPL intents (#583/#601, 4.18%/5.17% edge) unfilled 60+ min due to LP-Maker-Matheus offline (Step 1), not agent fault. Wake-script lacks intent-age/re-quote logic (minor); primary blocker is fleet liquidity loss (core/Step 1).

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: Patient DCA executing correctly: dormant during stock market closure (respecting 13:30–20:00 UTC hours), posted intents #669/#670 at w19 (19:55 UTC) before market close, watcher armed polling for resolution or fallback to market reopen 13:30 UTC (950m pending). Primary blocker: LP-Maker-Matheus offline 259m (was 75% of 8 settled deals); secondary counterpart

Agent will resume DCA at 13:30 UTC market reopen with sound wait-logic (polling intents #669/#670 or fallback to reopen). However, 75% of settled deals came from LP-Maker-Matheus (now offline 259m); secondary liquidity (Vulture-Andrew ×1, external ×2) will fill the gap but coverage is fragile if LP recovery is delayed.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 259m, held 6/8 of rebalancer's settled deals. Secondary capacity: Vulture-Andrew (28 deals, healthy), external 0xBd6a (2 intakes, proven). When stocks reopen, agent posts DCA intents but primary maker is dark.

Sound and mission-aligned. Agent respects stock market hours constraint (13:30–20:00 UTC) and correctly idle w13–w17 (market closed, no favorable off-hours opportunities). Posted DCA intents #669/#670 at w19 before close (19:55 UTC). Current wait-logic (poll intents or fallback to reopen) is disciplined and on-mission; not re-deriving or churning.

Intents #669/#670 resolved (filled or expired; 60-min expiry ~20:55 UTC)

FALLBACK: Stocks market reopen 13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 (950m pending)

Primary liquidity, 6/8 settled deals; currently offline 259m, fallback 199m overdue

Takes mispriced swaps and near-sure-wins; healthy, 28 deals fleet-wide

Values mispricings on binaries; only 2 deals lifetime, thin capacity

Proven taker of 2 rebalancer intents; external counterparty

None identifiable. Agent correctly idle outside stock market hours (w13–w17: no favorable off-hours trades). Intents #669/#670 posted before close; now polling for resolution. Cannot measure new missed opportunities while watcher is in intent-polling mode (not book-observant).

Dual trigger (intents resolve OR market reopen) matches DCA mission: intents fill = done; intents expire = new cycle at reopen

Respects market hours constraint (13:30–20:00 UTC for stocks)

Poll interval 30s is reasonable for 60-min intent window

Fallback = max(1h, market-reopen time) ensures patience + market-aligned cadence

Zero-LLM, deterministic, no book-polling false-alarm risk

No pre-post liquidity check: script doesn't flag if LP is still offline when intents resolve, leaving agent blind to concentration risk at reopen

When intents resolve at market reopen, add a 2-line liquidity check: if LP is still offline AND secondary capacity (Vulture-Andrew) is thin or busy, post DCA with tighter slice (hedge concentration risk) or wider spread. This costs ~0 token

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher crashed 259m ago; fallback never fired (199m overdue)

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Platform respawn mechanism is broken. LP-Maker was the single-point-of-liquidity for rebalancer (6/8 deals = 75%) and the fleet (64/74 deals = 87% of all settled volume).

Platform oncall: recover LP-Maker's process or escalate; investigate why fallback-trigger failed (was nextFallbackMin calculation or fire logic broken?)

Liquidity concentration: 75% of rebalancer's deals from LP, now offline

Secondary counterparties (Vulture-Andrew, external 0xBd6a) can fill at market reopen, but coverage is fragile (Vulture may be spread across 28 fleet deals, external is unmonitored). If LP recovery is slow (>1h), DCA intents may lag fills and gap widens.

When LP recovery ETA clears, brief fleet: expect secondary-only liquidity (Vulture-Andrew, Polymarket-Ljuba) for 24–48h. Monitor fill rates on rebalancer + high-priority agents; queue secondary deals in priority order. If external 0xBd6a proves reliable, negotiate standby capacity for LP-down scenar

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Afterhours routine: post directional binary bet on sNVDA UP consistent with accumulation thesis. Bet expires ~10:08 AM E

Summary: DCA mission STALLED: watcher process is DEAD (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 128m idle). Last wake w18 posted exploratory sNVDA binary bet (Intent 686), extending beyond swaps but not advancing main USDC→sNVDA accumulation. Current Intent 678 (fair oracle×0.99) unfilled 20+min — sole counterparty LP-Maker-Matheus offline 259m. Even if watcher restarted, no swa

Stacker-Massimo blocked by TWO cascading failures: (1) **Platform/core** — watcher process crashed 128m ago, fallback not firing (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null); (2) **Counterparty-starved** — LP-Maker-Matheus (sole swap filler) offline 259m; no alternative at fair prices. Intent 678 fair oracle×0.99 sits unfilled. Mission logic sound; execution blocked by infrastructure collapse.

2 settled deals (both LP-Maker-Matheus); Intent 678 (0.5 USDC→0.002485 sNVDA, fair oracle×0.99, ~$201.16 value) unfilled 20+min; LP watcher.armed=false 259m overdue on fallback; Vulture-Andrew (28 deals) only takes clearly-mispriced, not fair prices.

Agent logic is sound: DCA via 09:30 AM ET time-based schedule, fair oracle×0.99 pricing, auto-refresh on oracle drift >0.5%. Execution correct through w18 (posted binary bet as secondary diversification). Mission not failing due to faulty reasoning — it's failing because platform watcher respawn broke AND sole counterparty is offline. No amount of better logic survives loss of the liquidity provid

Time-based: 09:30 AM ET (13:30 UTC) next trading day

MISSING: 16-hour fallback (configured but NOT FIRING — watcher process dead, nextFallbackMin=null)

Filled all 2 prior swaps; fair oracle×0.99 aligns with LP's quote-and-fill model

OFFLINE 259m (watcher: armed=false, pidA

Takes 'clearly-mispriced' — Intent 678 is fair, not mispriced; Vulture ignores fair bids

Awake (28 deals, health=ok) but only int

Intent 678 unfilled 20+ min (fair oracle×0.99, should be auto-taken by LP, but LP is offline). No secondary taker visible at fair price. The opportunity exists but no buyer. Not agent fault; market starved.

Time-based schedule (09:30 AM ET) is well-reasoned for patient daily DCA — no sub-minute thrash

Simple polling (60s cycle, no RPC book-watch) is correct — DCA doesn't need reactive book data

16-hour fallback configured and matches daily cycle pattern

Wake logic auto-refreshes on oracle drift >0.5%, keeping bait competitive

Watcher process is DEAD (platform issue, not script fault): armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. No respawn fired despite 16-hour fallback overdue

Script has no secondary-counterparty watch (e.g., monitor if Vulture posts buyable sNVDA at mispriced rates) — low priority once primary watcher is alive

**CRITICAL (core):** Respawn watcher process immediately — platform respawn mechanism failed. Once live, agent logic will resume correctly. **Secondary (agent, optional):** Add a passive mispricing detector to pivot to Vulture-Andrew if LP

Watcher respawn mechanism failed — process dead, 16-hour fallback overdue

Stacker-Massimo watcher: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, last_wake 128m ago. 16-hour fallback should have fired ~183m ago but did not. Polling loop not running. Next scheduled wake (09:30 AM ET) will never fire.

Debug platform's process respawn (check why process died and fallback didn't trigger). If automatic restart broken, trigger manual respawn. Verify nextFallbackMin is correctly set when watcher re-arms.

Liquidity concentration risk: LP offline + no secondary taker blocks fair-priced swaps

Stacker-Massimo Intent 678 (fair oracle×0.99, should be instant fill) sits unfilled 20+ min because LP-Maker-Matheus is only swap-filler and is offline 259m. Vulture-Andrew would only take mispriced. No secondary swap-maker to break concentration.

Fleet-level: Restart LP-Maker-Matheus immediately, or add a secondary swap-maker agent willing to quote-and-fill at fair oracle×0.99±spread. Breaking concentration will unblock Stacker and other DCA agents.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

1st unfilled expiry on SSV; book proven sub-fillable → violates 'no tiny unfillable reposts' rule. Per playbook: after 2

new fillable intent (SSV/sNVDA for USDC) or 3h fallback

All 3 settled deals: swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (confirmed dead, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, last_wake_min_ago=199, no fallback). w11 SSV fade (0x289, -1.89% dislocation) posted at 17:46, expired unfilled at 18:52: LP-Maker not quoting, book thin.

New fillable intent on SSV or sNVDA for USDC

2–4h fallback (armed 75 min from now per nextFallbackMin=75)

MISSING: General dislocation threshold check on all assets—only hardcoded SSV/sNVDA

Proven: 3/3 settled deals. Perfect fit for fader—deep quotes near mid, fast settlement.

OFFLINE 199m (watcher.armed=false, pidAl

Would supply liquidity for multi-asset swaps (BTC/sAAPL/NVDA), but undeployed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes lifetime).

Focused on Polymarket valuations; does not quote raw BTC/sAAPL swaps.

Copy-trader, takes binaries not swaps; does not quote USDC for SSV/sNVDA.

Correct fallback cadence (2–4h, not sub-minute poll churn)

Zero-LLM firing logic (deterministic, scalable)

Baseline-then-newMatches pattern avoids false wakes on initial read

60s poll interval balances responsiveness vs spam

**Hardcoded asset list (SSV || sNVDA)**: canAccept predicate ignores multi-asset mission. No check for BTC, sAAPL, NVDA, or any general dislocation threshold.

Should calculate: (oracle_mid - effective_exec_price) / oracle_mid on every intent, fire if abs(disloc) > 1.5%, not gate by symbol

Watcher hardcoded to SSV/sNVDA pair; ignores multi-asset fade mission

canAccept only fires on (posterGives===SSV || posterGives===sNVDA) && posterWants===USDC. Mission is to fade *any* dislocation >1.5%, but w11 posted BTC, w7 posted SSV, w8–w9 traded sAAPL. Between w13 (18:52) and next fallback fire, BTC/sAAPL dislocation >1.5% may have appeared, but watcher cannot s

Generalize canAccept to check dislocation % threshold on all swap intents: abs((oraclePrice - intentPrice) / oraclePrice) > 0.015. Remove symbol hardcoding. This aligns watcher to actual multi-asset fade mission.

Sole counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus) offline 3.3h; no fallback provider online

All 3 settled deals (100%) were ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (now DEAD: watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, last_wake_min_ago=199, nextFallbackMin=null). w11 SSV fade (0x289, real -1.89% dislocation) posted at 17:46 UTC, expired unfilled 18:52 UTC because LP-Maker not quoting—no other maker stepped in. Index

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus online (clarify why no fallback recovery fired for 199m despite 60-min configured fallback) or deploy Index-Maker as backup liquidity provider. Core issue: fleet lacks redundancy.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

soonest tracked action is swaps 684/685 in ~45m (re-judge if edge gate met); sAAPL/sNVDA need LP fills to unlock bait po

6 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781044177; next poll 200s

Summary: Vulture remains disciplined (1.25%+ edge gate, posts mandatory rebalances at oracle-mid per policy), but realized PnL has worsened from -2.0 to -2.27 USD across 28 deals. Root cause (rebalancing gas overhead 0.5–1% per cycle) unchanged; structural. CRITICAL NEW: LP-Maker-Matheus — 79% of settled deals (22 of 28) — is offline 259m (watcher crashed, armed=fals

The structural gas overhead (-2.27 USD across 28 deals) was manageable when LP-Maker-Matheus was online, but LP is now offline 259m and supplies 79% of Vulture's counterparties. Agent cannot execute mandatory rebalancing without LP fills. Recent wakes show disciplined waiting (not edge-churning), but the book is thin (≤0.3% edges vs >1.25% gate) and the critical liquidity venue is gone. Capital runway depends on LP respawn, not edge finding.

22 of 28 settled deals with LP-Maker-Matheus (79%); LP offline 259m, watcher crashed, fallback 199m overdue. Rebalance intents 0x02aa (7.83 USDC→0.02692665 sAAPL) and 0x02ab (4.49 USDC→0.02159484 sNVDA) posted w27, still pending. Secondary counterparties negligible: 0xBd6a…9863 (4 deals), Arb-Hunter

Sound, disciplined, on-mission. Agent correctly: (a) enforces edge gate (rejects ≤0.3% swaps w25–w29), (b) posts rebalance swaps at oracle-mid when portfolio floors breached (sAAPL/$0.38, sNVDA/$7.82 below $8 floor), (c) cancels eroded quotes (w23: cancelled 641/635/638/639), (d) waits patiently for fills rather than churning (w25–w29 quiet book). Wakes w22–w29 show clear purpose: rebalance + wait

Takeable edge detection (scan-edges.ts, zero-token): fires immediately if edge >1.25% found (GLOBAL rule)

Adaptive polling: base 5m, tightens near expiry (300s pre-expiry), backs off when book quiet, max 30m

Fallback: 7200s (2h) forces re-orient and fresh wake even if book silent

MISSING: health check on primary counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus). Watcher polls for edges but blind to LP crash. Agent posts rebalance intents assuming LP will

Primary filler of rebalance swaps; 22 of 28 settled deals (79%). Institutional liquidity venue.

OFFLINE 259m — watcher crashed (armed=fa

1 settled deal (cross-fill on edge hunt). Overlapping mission (both hunt edges).

Alive (last_wake_min_ago=278, fallback p

4 settled deals (swaps). Unknown counterparty; likely external market-maker or bot.

Unknown (external). No visibility into h

1 settled deal. Unknown counterparty; sporadic fill.

None in recent wakes (w22–w29). Agent checked for edges >1.25% and found only ≤0.3% swaps (rejected per policy). Book is thin (only at-oracle and wrapped-token swaps visible); true edges are sparse. Rebalance intents 0x02aa/0x02ab (w27) are not 'missed' — they are posted and pending. If LP recovers, they should fill. The real miss is: no fallback path posted to alternative makers while LP is down.

Zero-token polling: deterministic scan-edges.ts runs free; Claude only fires on real trigger or fallback (cost-efficient)

GLOBAL rule: any edge >threshold now → wake immediately (correct for opportunistic picker)

Adaptive cadence: faster when book busy (new intents), slower when quiet, tightens pre-expiry (respects time value)

Fallback: 2h ensures re-orient even if book silent; prevents indefinite stale watcher

Cannot fire on 'book non-empty' — only on edges meeting gate (correct policy enforcement)

No health check on primary counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus). Watcher polls for edges but is blind to whether LP is alive. Agent posts rebalance intents (0x02aa/0

No timeout + escalation on pending rebalance intents. If a rebalance intent is unfilled >N minutes (e.g., 10m), should wake to re-gauge or post to secondary mak

No visibility into book depth or counterparty response latency. Adaptive poll distinguishes 'quiet book' from 'slow filler' only by intent count, not fill rate.

Add pre-wake check: if rebalance intent pending >10m and unfilled, trigger wake to assess whether LP is slow (re-post to 0xBd6a or external AMM) or dead (escalate to core). This prevents capital stranding while LP is down and reduces time-t

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 259m; 79% of Vulture's liquidity gone, rebalancing blocked fleet-wide

LP-Maker watcher crashed 259m ago (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Fallback scheduled 199m ago never fired. LP supplied 22 of Vulture's 28 settled deals (79%) + is primary rebalancing venue for fleet (Step 1: '13 agents dormant, blocked on liquidity'). Vulture's rebalance intents

URGENT: Respawn LP-Maker-Matheus watcher or redeploy LP process. If LP is permanently dead, open secondary liquidity venue (secondary maker, external CEX fallback) for Vulture and fleet to rebalance. Current fallback mechanism failed (199m overdue) — audit platform respawn / fallback delivery.

Counterparty concentration: 79% liquidity from single offline LP, no diversified rebalance path

22 of 28 deals from LP-Maker-Matheus (now offline). Secondary counterparties thin: 0xBd6a…9863 (4), Arb-Hunter-Tom (1), 0x5F79…CB6D (1). No secondary makers reliably post rebalancing swaps. If LP recovers but fails again, Vulture has no fallback. Open intents 0x02aa/0x02ab entirely depend on LP fill

Add fallback logic: if rebalance intent unfilled >10m, wake and post to alternative maker (0xBd6a, Arb-Hunter-Tom) in parallel, or fallback to external AMM. OR: pre-authorize secondary venues before LP failures occur (reduces time-to-rebalance from 2h+ to minutes).

Rebalancing gas overhead (0.5–1% per cycle) eats edge buffer; breakeven edge threshold rising

Realized PnL -2.27 USD across 28 deals = -0.081 USD/deal. Rebalancing cycles (w22–w24, ~2.1M units) consume 0.5–1% margin per round (0.5% of 2.1M ≈ 10.5k units ≈ ~$0.2 per cycle). Agent enforces >1.25% edge gate, but gas overhead means true net edge must be >1.75%+ to break even. Recent book: only ≤

Option A: increase edge gate floor to >2% or adjust portfolio floor constraints to reduce mandatory rebalance frequency (batch rebalances every N wakes instead of every wake). Option B: pre-compute rebalance gas cost per cycle, only take edges if net profit after rebalancing > 0 (requires oracle gas

wallet-address frequency (11/14 agents addressed)

LP HUB OFFLINE 259m; PLATFORM RESPAWN FAILED; 13 AGENTS WAITING

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita, Arb-Hunter-Tom, external 0xBd6a/0x5F79}

OFFLINE 259m; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; 64/74 settled d

Mimic-Ljuba ⇄ Polymarket-Ljuba (1 settled); Bear-Yosher, Stacker-Massimo watch

THIN; 1 open intent #414 (−25–35pp edge, 100+ min unfilled); sole intent availab

Option-Writer-Matheus (Engine 1) ⇄ Option-Taker-Matheus

STARVED; Writer Engine 1 paused post-6-rejections w21; zero audited intents sinc

Swing-Nikita ⇄ LP-Maker-Matheus (3 settled: BTC fade, sAAPL/SSV mean reversion)

DEPENDENT; all settled deals via dead LP-Maker; book thin, no new fades availabl

UNDEPLOYED (circular blocker); both: wakes=0 lifetime, armed=false, pidAlive=fal

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher crash w44 (17:19 UTC) + platform respawn infra failed (fallback 200m+ overdue)

Fleet starved; 13 agents blocked; 8 open intents stuck; Rebalancer (6/8 deals via LP), Stacker (2/2), Swing (3/3), Vultu

LP-Maker: last_wake_min_ago=259, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; armWatcher(fallbackMs: 60*60_000) should trigger 18:19 UTC, now 201m overdue (~21:40 UTC). 64/74 settled deals (87%)

Momentum-Nikita wake-script is incomplete stub (no oracle reads, no price threshold logic)

Agent blind to momentum; cannot trigger on volatility spikes despite correctly dormant when volatility absent

Wake-script lines 26–35: runWatchLoop contains only console.log('[watcher] polling...') and error catch; THRESHOLD_PCT=0.03 set but never compared; code comment: 'for now, just keep polling until fall

Index-Maker undeployed (wakes=0, armed=false, pidAlive=false, never launched) AND Index-Taker waiting for Maker's initia

Index market never initializes; circular dependency blocks both agents; 0 settled deals, 0 attempts

Index-Maker: wakes=0 lifetime, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null. Index-Taker: same state. Both require core initialization (armWatcher never fired)

Option-Writer-Matheus Engine 1 auto-paused post-6-rejections w21 (sound market signal) + sole-counterparty design (no ot

Option-Taker starved; zero new audited Option intents since w8 (5h+ ago); Taker scanned empty book across 8 consecutive

Option-Writer Engine 1 paused w21 after rejections across all parameter ranges (ATM/OTM, short/long, premium levels). Option-Taker w8 19:29 UTC through w16 21:31+ (5h+): zero new intents. Fleet roster

Arb-Hunter-Tom watcher scheduling failure or process bottleneck: no wake w54 (15:04) to w56 (15:29)

Missed primary take window 15:09–15:39 UTC for targets #32/#89 (25m gap spans entire window); at w56, agent reasons abou

w54 (15:04 UTC): 'Primary bet take window opens imminently (5–6min)', portfolio note lists #32/#89. w56 (15:29 UTC): agent evaluates #414, no mention of primaries. 25m pause. watcher.armed=true, nextF

Vulture-Andrew rebalancing overhead (structural 0.5–1% gas per cycle) compounded by 79% deal concentration with dead LP-

Realized PnL worsened −2.0 to −2.27 USD on 28 deals; overhead is unavoidable, but counterparty loss critical

22 of 28 settled deals with LP-Maker (now offline 259m). PnL −2.27 USD reflects overhead (structural, not mispricing) plus counterparty attrition

Platform respawn mechanism failed — LP-Maker watcher crash not recovered 200m+ overdue

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher crashed w44 (17:19 UTC, 259m ago). armWatcher configured with fallbackMs: 60*60_000 (60 min fallback). Should trigger ~18:19 UTC. Current time ~21:40 UTC = 261m after crash = 201m past deadline. Metrics confirm: nextFallbackMin=null (no scheduled fallback), armed=false (not armed), pidAlive=false (process dead). Platform did not honor respawn contract.

LP-Maker-Matheus: last_wake_min_ago=259, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. This is the one-point-of-failure blocking 13 agents: Rebalancer-Lior (6/8 deals), Vulture-Andrew (22/28), Stacker-Massimo (2/2), Swing-Nikita (3/3),

(1) Audit respawn infra logs immediately — why armWatcher fallback did not fire. (2) Implement hard respawn timeout in core (if fallback deadline missed, force restart). (3) As emergency: manually restart LP-Maker-Matheus watcher, restore w45 intent from last checkpoint. This unb

Momentum-Nikita wake-script incomplete — no oracle reads, no threshold logic, blind to volatility

Wake-script source (lines 26–35) contains only polling loop and error catch. THRESHOLD_PCT=0.03 initialized but never compared to prices. Code comment admits: '(In real trading, you'd cache prices from oracle contract read) For now, just keep polling until fallback fires.' Agent correctly idle (sub-1pp gaps confirmed by Step 2), but NOT by design — only because no momentum currently exists. When BTC/ETH volatility spikes, agent cannot d

Wake-script runWatchLoop: console.log('[watcher] polling...'); no runOracleRead or price comparison logic. Intent #28 (BTC momentum bet, w1) still open. Last wake 376m ago; fallback armed 65m pending.

Implement price oracle read in runWatchLoop: query oracle contract for BTC/ETH 5m volatility. Add threshold check: if |current_price - MA_5m| > THRESHOLD_PCT (0.03), post momentum entry. Test on next BTC/ETH volatility spike (monitor for price moves >3%).

Liquidity concentration collapse — 87% of settled deals (64/74) via single hub LP-Maker, now offline

LP-Maker-Matheus routed 64 of 74 settled deals (87% of network flow). Secondary counterparties thin: Vulture-Andrew (28 deals, but 22 are fills from LP); Polymarket-Ljuba (2); external 0xBd6a (2). One-agent failure cascades: Rebalancer (6/8 via LP), Stacker (2/2 via LP), Swing (3/3 via LP), Mimic (dependent on LP for secondary flow). Market structure is fragile — designed around single hub rather than diversified supply.

Recent deals: 14/16 shown involve LP-Maker or Vulture (who was filled by LP). Lifetime: 64/74 settled (86.5%). Rebalancer, Stacker, Swing all show 100% LP concentration in Step-2 summaries.

(1) Deploy secondary LSM/maker distinct from LP-Maker to reduce concentration below 50% within 1 day. (2) Rebalancer, Stacker, Swing, Polymarket integrate external aggregator (0x, Uniswap, Balancer) as fallback supply. (3) Prioritize Option-Writer and Index-Maker deployment to di

Index market initialization circular blocker — both Maker and Taker undeployed, neither can seed

Index-Maker undeployed: wakes=0 lifetime, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null. Index-Taker same state. Design requires Index-Maker to post initial LONG IndexBasket intent to unlock market; Index-Taker waits. Neither has launched. Circular initialization dependency — a core/platform issue, not agent reasoning.

Index-Maker: wakes=0 lifetime, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Index-Taker: identical state. No process has ever initialized either agent.

(1) Manually trigger Index-Maker watcher startup; verify why armWatcher never fired for both agents. (2) If circular initialization is structural design flaw, update core to allow agents to post seed intents when counterparty undeployed (e.g., Index-Maker seeds with default LONG

Arb-Hunter-Tom missed primary take window — 25m wake gap during critical 15:09–15:39 UTC window

Agent identified primary targets #32/#89 (take window 15:09–15:39 UTC) at w54 (15:04 UTC). Portfolio held $91.76 USDC liquid. No wake from w54 to w56 — 25m gap spans entire window opening. At w56 (15:29 UTC), agent reasons about secondary #414 instead. Watcher scheduling failure or process bottleneck; platform/watcher at fault, not agent reasoning.

w54 (15:04 UTC): 'Primary bet take window opens imminently (5–6min)'; w56 (15:29 UTC): agent evaluates #414, no mention of #32/#89. Gap 15:04–15:29. watcher.armed=true, nextFallbackMin=20 (healthy, fallback pending).

(1) Audit watcher concurrency limits during w54–w56 window — check logs for bottlenecks. (2) Verify Arb-Hunter's watcher.armed=true is durable. (3) Implement per-agent wake-gap alerting (threshold >10m = warn, >20m = critical). (4) If structural, increase watcher concurrency pool

Bear-Yosher correctly patient on intent #414 — counterparty-starved, not mispriced or reasoning-broken

Intent #414 (anchor bet) open 100+ min, zero takers, −25–35pp taker edge vs 3pp floor. Agent correctly gated hard on takerInMoneyNow=false (triggered w13, w14, w15 — three consecutive wakes). No aligned binaries in book. Supply IS dry. This is the MARKET'S fault (missing binary posters), not agent error or incorrect floor.

Intent #414 open 100+ min, zero takers. takerInMoneyNow=false gated across w13–w15 (three consecutive wakes). Hard gate appropriate.

Polymarket-Ljuba or external binary posters should supply competing offers. Monitor binary sentiment; if Bear thesis is correct (crypto down), bids should emerge. Not an agent fix.

IMMEDIATE: Investigate and fix platform respawn mechanism. Why did armWatcher fallback (scheduled 18:19 UTC) not trigger 200m+ later? Audit logs. Implement hard respawn timeout in core. As emergency mitigation: manually restart LP-Maker-Matheus watcher and restore w45 intent from

Momentum-Nikita — implement price oracle read loop in wake-script. Add oracle contract call to query BTC/ETH 5m volatility. Implement threshold check: if |current_price - MA_5m| > 0.03, post momentum entry. Test on next BTC/ETH volatility spike.

Break Index-Maker ↔ Index-Taker circular initialization. Manually trigger Index-Maker watcher startup, or update core to allow agents to post seed intents when counterparty undeployed. Unblocks an entire market.

Diversify liquidity supply post-LP recovery. Deploy secondary LSM/maker distinct from LP-Maker to reduce concentration from 87% to <50% within 1 day. Integrate Rebalancer, Stacker, Swing, Polymarket with external aggregator (0x, Uniswap, Balancer). Prioritize Option-Writer and In

Monitor Arb-Hunter-Tom wake scheduling. Investigate 25m gap during primary window (w54–w56, 15:04–15:29 UTC). Audit watcher concurrency/bottlenecks. Implement per-agent wake-gap alerting (threshold >10m warn, >20m critical).

LP HUB DOWN 259M; FALLBACK 199M OVERDUE;

WORSE. LP-Maker-Matheus offline 259m (watcher crashed); 60-min fallback scheduled 199m ago never fired. Fleet starved with 13 agents ALIVE but blocked on liquidity. New critical issue: Momentum-Nikita wake-script is incomplete stub (no oracle logic, code comment 'just keep polling'). Arb-Hunter-Tom

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher crashed 259m ago; 60-min fallback never fired (199m overdue). armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — platform respawn mechanism broken or process permanently dead

Fleet liquidity concentration materialized: 87% of 74 settled deals (64) via LP-Maker, now offline. Secondary counterparties thin (Vulture-Andrew 28, Polymarket-Ljuba 2). 13 agents dormant.

Momentum-Nikita wake-script incomplete: no price oracle reads, no threshold logic. Code comment admits 'for now, just keep polling' — agent is ALIVE but cannot see price moves or detect momentum leade

Arb-Hunter-Tom: wake-gap pattern confirmed (w54 to w56, 15:04–15:29 UTC, 25m miss spans entire take window). Last wake 278m ago; fallback 21m pending. Take opportunities missed.

Index-maker and Index-taker: undeployed (zero wakes lifetime, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Circular blocker — index-maker needs to post initial LONG IndexBasket intent to unlock

Does the 25m wake-gap recur (w54–w56, 15:04–15:29 UTC during take window)? Last wake 278m ago; fallback fires in 21m. What's the timing issue in wake-script causing the miss?

Intent #414 open 100+ min, mispriced at −25 to −35pp vs 3pp floor. Any new aligned binaries posted in recent book, or is supply truly dry?

Undeployed (zero wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). What is the exact blocker — code, process, or deployment infrastructure?

Undeployed, structurally blocked by index-maker (also offline). Once index-maker posts initial LONG IndexBasket intent, will index-taker auto-wake within audit cadence?

Watcher crashed 259m ago. 60-min fallback was scheduled to fire at 60m — now 199m overdue. Why did platform respawn + fallback mechanism fail? Is process permanently dead?

Sole bet #414 unfilled 100+ min at −25 to −35pp vs 3pp edge floor. Is 3pp floor too strict for thin binary markets, or is supply structurally dry?

Wake-script is incomplete stub with no price oracle reads, no threshold logic. Can it detect momentum shifts, or is it blind to volatility? Did it fire between last wakes?

Starved 5h+ (zero audited Option intents posted since w8, 19:29 UTC). Sole counterparty (option-writer Engine 1) paused post-6-rejections. Pivot or wait for engine restart?

Engine 1 correctly paused w21 (market signal after 6 rejections). Engine 2 posted 3 swaps (w23: intent 528 filled, 530/533 expired). Has rejection signal cleared for Engine 1 restart?

Both sAAPL intents unfilled 60+ min (intents #583/#601, 4.18%/5.17% edge). LP offline is structural blocker. Are secondary counterparties (Swing-Nikita, others) seeing these edges?

Correctly dormant during market closure (13:30–20:00 UTC). Posted intents #669/#670 before close. Resume DCA at next market open, or is secondary liquidity blocker (75% from LP, now dead)?

Intent 654 expired w15; now on intent 678 (fair oracle×0.99 bid). LP offline blocks fills. Will next wake repost, or pivot to secondary counterparties?

All 3 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker (now offline). w11 SSV fade (intent 0x289) expired unfilled. Book drying, or do secondary counterparties (Vulture, Polymarket) have swing capacity?

Net −2 USD loss across 28 deals (79% via LP, now offline). Rebalancing gas overhead (0.5–1% margin per cycle) eats edge buffer. How many cycles remain before capital depletion?

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher crashed 259m ago. 60-min fallback never fired (199m overdue). armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Platform respawn + fallback mechanism is broken or process per

Concentration risk materialized: 87% of settled deals (64 of 74) via LP-Maker, now offline. Secondary counterparties thin (Vulture 28, Polymarket 2). 13 agents dormant/waiting. Build secondary liquidi

Momentum-Nikita: wake-script is incomplete stub (no price oracle reads, no threshold logic, code comment 'for now, just keep polling'). Agent is ALIVE but cannot fulfill mission. Rewrite runWatchLoop

Arb-Hunter-Tom: Wake-gap pattern confirmed (w54–w56, 15:04–15:29 UTC, 25m miss during take window). Last wake 278m ago; fallback 21m pending. Fix wake-script timing logic (check hardcoded window bound

Index-maker and Index-taker: undeployed (zero wakes lifetime, armed=false, pidAlive=false). Circular blocker — deploy index-maker with initial LONG IndexBasket intent (e.g., BTC+AAPL+NVDA, fair oracle