Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary bet has CEX taker side in money with >=0.5% margin within 30-min window. All new swap intents require assets n

Summary: W4 swap (2 SSV ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, +57bps, $45.76 PnL) remains the sole settled deal; W5–W11 were disciplined passes (BTC $480–$635 below $64k strike, no swap edge ≥10bps). Crashed mid-W11 (06-08T19:49), now 589min dead (+60min since last cycle) — clean clock-tick, zero state change, no partial rearm, no new log entry. Additional concern: bet #32 ANCHOR in w

Pure clock-tick: 589min dead vs 529min last cycle, +60min, armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null — zero self-recovery signal. Confirmed SDK epidemic casualty. Separately, bet #32's expiry has now passed, meaning even a cold-restart with the current wake script loses its CEX-trigger path and falls back entirely to new-intent and 30-min fallback triggers.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — watcher process did not survive W11 (06-08T19:49); no rearm in 589min; pattern identical to 8/9 other dead agents (SDK epidemic). No agent-side logic fault detected in active wakes.

Sound during active operation: W5–W11 cited exact BTC/strike gaps ($480–$635 below $64k), enforced 10bps threshold, correctly skipped Option template (not in mission per W10). Disciplined taker behaviour, right problem — stalled only by platform kill.

New intent appears on book (any template)

Bet #32 enters 30-min expiry window AND BTC CEX ≥ $64,320 — NOW DEAD: bet #32 expiryUnix ~1781020800 has passed

30-min hard fallback — only surviving trigger if process were alive

Only confirmed counterparty (W4 deal); posts stale/edge swaps arb-hunter can take as pure taker

ok — 24 deals, health ok, 12 open Swap i

Posts near-decided options arb-hunter could take if CEX-confirmed ITM, but W10 logged 'Option template not in mission' — agent may lack Opti

ok — but ETH call at $1,688.45 strike ex

Maker of BinaryBets arb-hunter could theoretically take, but bear-yosher is itself dead (654min)

LP-Maker-Matheus has 12 open Swap intents expiring in 31–60min; if any carry ≥10bps CEX-confirmed edge they are exactly arb-hunter's target surface. Agent is dead so cannot evaluate or take them. Unmeasurable precisely: watcher is down, so real-time edge vs those intents cannot be scored from here.

30-min fallback cadence matches binary bet windows (30–60min typical) — correct for this mission

CEX price check gated strictly to the 30-min expiry window — avoids wasting calls

Baseline 'seen' set on first tick prevents firing on already-known intents

4s CEX timeout with AbortController — robust against hung feeds

new-intent trigger covers the swap-snipe fallback surface cleanly

ANCHORS hard-coded from W11 scan — bet #32 expiryUnix now past, CEX-trigger path permanently dead until next wake rewrites the script

No dynamic bet-scan in the watcher itself — ANCHORS go stale across every crash/recovery cycle

No guard: if ANCHORS is empty (all expired), script silently falls back to only new-intent + 30-min fallback with no log warning

Replace hard-coded ANCHORS with a live scan at watcher startup: read open BinaryBet intents, filter to those expiring within 90min, compute checkAtUnix dynamically. This makes the script self-refreshing across restarts and eliminates the st

SDK epidemic kill — watcher process does not survive wake exit

armed=false, pidAlive=false, 589min since last wake — identical signature to 8 other dead agents. Platform is not re-launching watchers after agent exits.

Fleet-wide SDK fix: ensure watcher process is re-spawned or kept alive independently of the agent wake process.

Stale ANCHORS — bet #32 expired, CEX-trigger path dead

Current wake script has bet #32 at expiryUnix ≈1781020800 which has now passed. Even on cold restart, trigger #2 will never fire; agent will only wake on new intents or 30-min fallback, missing any near-decided binaries on the book.

Rewrite watcher to scan open BinaryBet intents dynamically at startup and build ANCHORS from live data rather than hard-coding from the last wake's scan.

Bear-Yosher

No executable action advances the thesis this wake. Bear bet properly anchored. Market opens in ~1h40m for DCA.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; 716min with zero self-recovery across six cycles; matches SDK epidemic pattern in 8/12 agents

Intent 48 resolution (filled or expired)

ETH adverse move >= +1.5% from $1,682.93 baseline

New tech-stock sell intent (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT posterGives)

MISSING: BTC adverse price trigger (mission explicitly shorts BTC, watcher only watches ETH)

Active live BinaryBet relationship; Mimic-Ljuba's mission is to accept winnable open bets re-priced to oracle — natural BELOW-bet counterpar

Already settled a swap; provides swap liquidity for stock-basket DCA legs

Stock-basket component (sNVDA) could cross with option-writer's stock intents if they post sNVDA

Intent-48 resolution trigger ensures immediate wake when the BELOW bet settles or expires — and since open_intents=0, fires on first loop pass after recovery

ETH +1.5% adverse circuit-breaker is proportionate for a bear-thesis agent holding a BELOW position

Tech-sell intent scanner directly supports the stock-basket DCA mission (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

4h hard fallback prevents indefinite silence; zero-LLM poll; correct structure

No BTC adverse price monitor — mission explicitly shorts BTC/ETH but only ETH is guarded

Intent 48 is already off the book (open_intents=0); on recovery the watcher correctly fires immediately, but there is no awareness that the BinaryBet is now 'li

SDK epidemic: watcher cannot re-arm

armed=false/pidAlive=false for 716min; same crash pattern as 8/12 agents; 4h fallback never fired because the process died before it could

Identify and fix the SDK process crash preventing watcher re-arm; this is the single blocker for all affected agents including Bear-Yosher

BTC not monitored despite being in mission

Mission says 'Short ETH/BTC by default'; wake script only checks ETH price for adverse moves; a BTC rally against the short thesis would go undetected until the 4h fallback

Add BTC adverse move check (+1.5% from a BTC baseline logged at wake time) alongside the existing ETH check in current.ts

Live BinaryBet unmonitored — expiry unknown

BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba is 'live' with no visible expiry in the data; if the bet expires unfavorably while crashed, agent misses the settlement and the -$2.36 realized PnL deepens without any responsive action

On next wake, log the BinaryBet expiry timestamp and add an expiry-proximity trigger (fire N minutes before expiry) to the watcher so the agent can act before outcome is locked

LP-Maker-Matheus

BTC oracle drop $215 created free-option bid. Three quotes too wide. One fill met τ threshold. All corrected to current

oracle guard + fillable swap + expiry fallback at 1781005224

Summary: Recovery is genuine and clean. The 18:38 wake (w1) detected all 12 pre-crash quotes as price-stale (including sAAPL intent #29 above oracle), executed 12/12 cancels, and reposted 12/12 fresh at current oracle mid — the focus question is answered with evidence. Now 11 open (one filled by Bear-Yosher since repost). 3 settled deals this cycle vs 2 last cycle, a

Fresh restart confirmed: 12/12 stale quotes cancelled and reposted at oracle mid at 18:38. 3 deals settled (Bear-Yosher new this cycle), book live with 11 open intents. However realized PnL is -$59.67 lifetime against $17.89 in token costs — the LP is getting picked off, not just providing liquidity.

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

Sound and on-mission: the wake correctly identified stale quotes (including an above-oracle sAAPL bid), cleaned the book, and reposted two-sided. The agent is solving the right problem — staleness detection and repricing — but the underlying pricing model (pure oracle-mid with no spread) is the structural gap letting arb flow drain PnL.

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

armed, 0 deals — likely the adverse-sele

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

armed but two triggers stale, only 4h fa

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Not applicable — LP mission is to be taken, not to take. The 1 intent filled since repost (Bear-Yosher) is normal throughput. Adverse selection by informed takers is the concern, not missed takes.

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Add a PnL floor guard in the wake script (or agent CLAUDE.md): if realized_pnl < -N USDC per wake cycle, skip reposting and emit a diagnostic — stops the LP from being a continuously open arb target while losing money.

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

BTC trending down; mirrored bearish BTC below flow at current oracle. Strike ATM, 1h, p=0.54 → ~3pp edge over 50% fair p

intent #460 fills/expires (1h) OR deal #3 expires (~18:50 UTC) OR new BinaryBet

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own text), yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM.

Deal #3 expiry at DEAL_EXPIRY_TS (2026-06-09T14:10Z)

New BinaryBet on book with takerEdgePp ≥ 3pp (vs flat FAIR_PROB=0.5)

MISSING: oracle-adjusted fair probability — watcher fires on 'edge vs 0.5' not 'edge vs calibrated prob'

Already traded (Deal #3); posts BTC directional BinaryBets that mimic-ljuba takes; missions complement

armed=true, 18min fallback imminent — wa

Both trade BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba also posts small-shade binaries mimic-ljuba could mirror

armed=true but nextFallbackMin=1284 — ef

Picks off mispriced bets; could take mimic-ljuba's self-posted directional intents

Posts Options, not BinaryBets — different template, no structural overlap

armed, 10 deals — active but wrong templ

Hardcodes DEAL_ID + DEAL_EXPIRY_TS — correct single-deal tracking pattern

Fires on deal expiry OR new high-edge bet — dual trigger fits hold-then-rotate mission

newMatches() pattern avoids re-evaluating already-seen intents

24h fallback is proportionate to deal horizon

FAIR_PROB=0.5 is hardcoded flat prior — correct only for a coin-flip binary; any bet with a known oracle price has a non-flat fair distribution

No oracle-distance calibration: takerEdgePp = (0.5 - takerProb)*100 will mark any bet where taker puts up <50% as 'edge', including deep OTM positions

Edge floor of 3pp vs wrong fair value gives a false gate

Flat FAIR_PROB=0.5 invalidates edge calculations for directional binaries

hasEdge() uses (0.5 - takerProb)*100 as edge. For a BTC above $65k bet with oracle at $63,383, true fair prob is ~12–18%; the flat prior makes the bet look like +32–38pp edge when true edge may be negative. Deal #3 was likely taken at negative EV.

Read oracle price + bet strike + direction in the wake loop; compute fair prob via historical vol (e.g., 80% annualized → ~15% daily σ → lognormal CDF for strike distance); use that as FAIR_PROB instead of 0.5. Can be inlined in hasEdge() with a belt.tools.readOracle call.

Self-posted intent (w1) untracked by watcher

w1 posted a directional BTC bet as maker; the watcher only monitors Deal #3 expiry and incoming taker opportunities — no monitoring of whether the self-posted intent got filled or expired.

After each self-post, store the intentId in watcher state and add a fireWake trigger when that intent settles or expires.

Momentum-Nikita

Summary: Agent re-armed after last cycle's post-w3 crash (now armed=true/pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=186). Baselines rolled forward to w3 snapshot (BTC $62,620, ETH $1,669, SSV $2.05). Neither crypto has crossed the 3% absolute bar: BTC is +0.84% and ETH is -1.08% from baseline — well inside the trigger. Agent will coast to 13:30 UTC market open (~112 min) rather

No early wake coming: BTC +0.84% and ETH -1.08% from w3 baselines leave both well below the 3% trigger. Market open at 13:30 UTC fires in ~112 min, ~74 min before the 4h fallback at ~14:38 UTC. The one structural issue — wake script fires on absolute 3% moves rather than relative leadership spread (the mission's 2pp gap criterion) — is live but harmless today since prices are rangebound.

1 settled deal (Swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, -$0.41 realized PnL). w2: 'ETH edges BTC but not by 2pp.' w3: 'Edge threshold unmet on both lookbacks, declining tape, BTC $62,620, ETH $1,669.' Prices have barely moved since w3 (BTC $63,457 = +0.84%; ETH $1,651 = -1.08%): no leadership rotation to trade.

Sound reasoning solving the right problem at runtime — w2 and w3 both correctly gate on the relative-gap criterion and hold when it's unmet. The mismatch is in the watcher (3% absolute trigger) not in the agent's wake-time logic. The agent is not churning; avg_gap_min=505 reflects appropriate patience. The 1 deal posted at w1 was a valid starter position.

US market open at 13:30 UTC (hardcoded datetime) — fires in ~112 min

BTC/ETH/SSV moves ≥3% absolute from w3 baselines — not approaching (BTC +0.84%, ETH -1.08%)

4h fallback from arm time (~14:38 UTC) — fires ~74 min after market open

MISSING: relative leadership spread trigger (e.g., top-asset return minus second-asset return ≥2pp) — the actual mission decision criterion

Only counterparty for delivered swaps; sole settled deal was with this agent. Hub with 12 open intents and $42.12/5h burn — reliably availab

armed, 34 lifetime deals, health=warming

Rebalancer posts DCA swaps; could cross with a momentum-nikita sell when rebalancer wants the same asset going opposite direction. No deal h

None within mission scope. Open binaries (Polymarket-Ljuba #32 BTC<$64k, #89 ETH<$1700) are binary bets, not delivered swaps — outside this agent's remit. No delivered swap intents in the book at a misprice that would have triggered action.

Market-open trigger (13:30 UTC) correctly gates stock entry into the ranking universe — fits mission's multi-asset rotation logic

4h fallback ensures the agent re-evaluates even if no price event fires

Baselines roll forward each wake, so the 3% check compounds correctly over time

60s poll cadence is appropriate for a price-event watcher

Secondary trigger measures absolute 3% per-asset move, but the mission's entry criterion is a 2pp relative leadership gap between assets — these are orthogonal

No relative-spread check: if top mover vs second mover diverges by ≥2pp intra-wake, the watcher is blind to it until the 4h fallback

Replace the per-asset absolute threshold with a relative spread check: compute return for each CRYPTO symbol from BASELINE, find max − second-max; if that gap ≥ 0.02 (2pp), fireWake. Remove the 3% absolute loop entirely — it's measuring the

Wake script fires on absolute 3% moves, not 2pp relative leadership spread

The mission's action criterion is 'the strongest mover pulls ≥2pp clear of the field.' The watcher's secondary trigger fires when any single asset moves ≥3% from baseline — entirely different condition. A 3% BTC move with ETH at +2.9% would trigger a false wake; a clean 2pp BTC leadership with no as

Compute per-asset returns from BASELINE each poll; fire if (max_return − second_max_return) >= 0.02. One formula swap in the runWatchLoop body.

Single reliable counterparty limits execution at scale

All swap fills route through LP-Maker-Matheus. If that agent is mid-rebalance or at inventory limits, a valid momentum signal has nowhere to execute. 1 deal / -$0.41 PnL is an acceptable early sample but exposure is concentrated.

No immediate action needed at current volume; revisit if LP-Maker-Matheus availability drops or position sizes grow beyond its quoted depth.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Watcher fired on fallback timeout; check for new options

new ETH/BTC option intent appears (or 2h fallback)

Wake script line `if (!seen) { seen = new Set(intents.map(...)); return; }` seeds the exclusion set from the current book state at startup and returns without evaluating — any option already open at 09:05 init is silently skipped. Option-Writer-Matheus (12 settled deals, health=ok) is the sole count

New option intent with template hash 0xcd5689c7... appears after 09:05 init

MISSING: evaluation of options already open in the book at initialization time

Sole intended counterparty — 12 settled deals, health=ok, actively writing ETH/BTC options matching the target template hash.

Swap maker only, does not write options.

Takes mispriced intents broadly; could compete for the same options, not a supply source.

Filters precisely on Option template hash (0xcd5689c76d56d3133c5b631145692a2c9035002dd8a745b80a738d736070daf6) — no false wakes on unrelated intents

2h fallback cadence is appropriate for a patient, selective taker mission

Zero-LLM, correct pid/deadline structure

First loop iteration seeds `seen` from current open intents and returns immediately — any option open at startup is excluded from ever triggering a wake

On a cold-start after a long offline period (21 dead cycles), this blind spot is especially costly: the book may already have good options the agent will miss f

Wake script silently skips all options present at initialization

`seen` is seeded from the current open-intent snapshot on first pass, then the function returns early. Options from Option-Writer-Matheus already in the book at 09:05 will never trigger a wake — only options that arrive AFTER init do. With a 2h fallback, the agent could go blind for up to 2h on rest

Move `seen = new Set()` above the `runWatchLoop` call (initialize empty before the loop). The first iteration will then compute all current matching options as new arrivals and fire immediately if any exist — no logic change needed beyond initialization placement.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Summary: Now 364min into Engine 2 monitoring (entered w21/05:34 UTC after exhausting the 6-step repricing ladder: 4.4%→2.6%→2%→ATM-short→ATM-4hr→ATM-6hr, all 6 rejected). Watcher alive (armed=true/pidAlive=true) — correctly waiting, not crashed. wake_script_source=null makes the Engine 2 trigger condition unverifiable, and nextFallbackMin=null means no periodic heart

Agent correctly transitioned to Engine 2 after a disciplined repricing exhaustion. Alive and waiting, but with wake_script_source=null the trigger condition is unreadable, and nextFallbackMin=null means the agent could stay silent indefinitely if the Engine 2 event never materializes. The 0-deal option sleeve is a fleet/core problem (Option-Taker-Matheus's pre-seeded 'seen' set) — not agent mispricing.

All 12 settled deals are swaps vs LP-Maker-Matheus. 0 option deals in 21 wakes despite 6+ option intents posted (4.4%→2.6%→2%→ATM at 1.5hr/4hr/6hr terms). Natural counterparty Option-Taker-Matheus has never evaluated a live option per Step-1 (pre-seeded 'seen' set blocks evaluation at startup).

Sound and on-mission for the swap engine; repricing discipline (premium-down, term-up, never raise) correctly followed mission rules across w14–w21. Engine 2 transition at w21 was the right call after 6 consecutive rejections. However, the agent is executing correct option-pricing logic into a structurally broken market — it's solving the right problem on a counterparty that cannot see its intents

Engine 2 trigger: unknown — wake_script_source=null, cannot verify what fires it

MISSING: nextFallbackMin=null — no periodic heartbeat; if Engine 2 trigger event never occurs, agent is silent indefinitely (already 364min and counting)

All 12 settled deals are swaps vs LP-Maker-Matheus — the only functioning counterparty relationship this agent has

Mission-designed counterparty for the 30% option sleeve, but structurally blocked by pre-seeded 'seen' set — has never evaluated a single li

ok but non-functional as option counterp

Could take swap intents if portfolio drift aligns, but no evidence of overlap in settled deals

Swap side: none visible. Option side: unmeasurable — wake_script_source=null makes the book view unverifiable, and the only natural option taker (option-taker-matheus) is structurally unable to see posted options regardless.

Engine 2 transition logic was sound — correctly diagnosed market saturation after 6 repricing steps and shifted modes

Watcher remains alive (armed+pidAlive) — not crashed, genuinely waiting

wake_script_source=null: Engine 2 trigger condition entirely unverifiable — cannot confirm it fires on a meaningful market signal vs never

nextFallbackMin=null: no periodic fallback means the agent can stay silent indefinitely if the trigger event never materializes — already 364min without a wake

Engine 2 with zero fallback is structurally risky in a thin option book where the only capable taker is itself broken

Add a time-based fallback (e.g., nextFallbackMin=120) so Engine 2 wakes at minimum every 2 hours to reassess portfolio drift and whether conditions warrant resuming Engine 1 — without this, a stuck trigger means permanent silence.

nextFallbackMin=null in Engine 2 risks indefinite silence

Engine 2 has no periodic fallback. If the trigger event (unknown, source=null) never fires — plausible since the only option taker is structurally broken — the agent sits silent with no self-rescue. Now 364min without a wake.

Set nextFallbackMin=120 (or similar) in the Engine 2 watcher configuration so the agent wakes periodically to check portfolio drift and market conditions even if the primary trigger never fires.

wake_script_source=null: Engine 2 trigger condition unverifiable

Cannot read what event fires the Engine 2 watcher. Step-2 analysis cannot confirm whether it responds to a meaningful signal (price threshold, drift, taker appearance) or is purely reactive with no guarantee of ever firing.

Ensure wake_script_source is populated in the agent snapshot for observability; verify Engine 2 trigger fires on a concrete, checkable condition.

Option-Taker-Matheus pre-seeded 'seen' set blocks the entire option market

Option-Writer-Matheus posted 6+ option intents across 21 wakes (6-step repricing ladder) with 0 takers. Step-1 confirms Option-Taker-Matheus has never evaluated a live option because its 'seen' set was seeded with pre-existing options at startup. This makes option-writer-matheus's 30% sleeve structu

Reset Option-Taker-Matheus's 'seen' set to empty on startup (or seed only post-deployment option IDs). This unblocks the only option counterparty relationship in the fleet and is the single highest-leverage fix available.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced bets on book, no swap edge. Existing bets well-positioned (both ITM). Only Jun9 markets within 24h rule, an

Summary: ARMED and scanning passively: nextFallbackMin=502 (was 561, ~59min elapsed since prior summary — countdown consistent). Wake 3 (08:53 UTC, now 165min ago) concluded no new edge and re-armed. Both intents #32 (BTC<$64k, ~61.7%) and #89 (ETH<$1700, ~58.8%) remain open, deeply ITM (BTC $63,457 vs $64k; ETH $1,651 vs $1,700). Watcher polls book every 60s for new

The agent is NOT purely passive-holding — the watcher scans the book every 60s for new takeable intents — but has found no new edge in 165min. Correct behavior: both positions are correct conviction plays, deeply ITM, and the pre-expiry trigger at ~15:55 UTC will fire the next reassessment well before settlement. The 0-deal count is a taker-availability problem, not an agent failure.

Intent #32 (BTC<$64k, shade 61.7%, $10 posted) and #89 (ETH<$1700, shade 58.8%, $10 posted) — both deep ITM with no fills since posting 06-08T18:03 and 06-08T20:01. No fleet agent is running a 'crypto up' conviction that would take the losing side. arb-hunter-tom (mission: take near-decided binaries

Sound and on-mission. Wake 3 correctly identified 'no new mispriced bets, existing positions well-positioned' and chose to wait rather than churn. The watcher's continuous 60s poll ensures the agent will react to new book entries promptly. No repeated re-posting, no off-mission drift, no token waste. The one concern: with BTC needing only +0.86% to cross $64k, the agent's 61.7% edge estimate may b

intent #32 or #89 resolves (filled or expired)

5min pre-expiry at ~15:55 UTC (EXPIRY_SEC - 300)

new takeable BinaryBet or Option appears on book (60s poll)

fallback: June 9 20:00 UTC (4h post-expiry)

Mission explicitly: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle misprices — both #32 and #89 qualify (61.7%/58.8% ITM, expiry ~4h away)

armed, pidAlive=true, wake 3min ago — al

Copies BinaryBets and accepts winnable open bets — #32/#89 are open and winning, but mimic-ljuba has 1 deal and a BinaryBet vs bear-yosher s

Bear-yosher bets crypto DOWN — same directional conviction as polymarket-ljuba, so it would not take the losing side of BTC<$64k or ETH<$170

None identified this wake — wake 3 found no mispriced bets on book, and watcher has found none since (165min). Unmeasurable whether arb-hunter-tom could have taken #32/#89 had it been scanning the open-intent book proactively.

5min pre-expiry trigger (EXPIRY_SEC - 300) is well-designed — agent gets an LLM wake to decide on settlement before the deadline, not after

60s book poll catches new takeable BinaryBet/Option intents promptly — not purely passive

Fallback at June 9 20:00 UTC (4h post-expiry) covers the settlement/reassess window

ownIntentResolved checks on both #32 and #89 ensure the agent reacts immediately to any fill

seen set reinitializes on every watcher restart — if the process restarts (as it did between wakes 2–3), existing intents are re-baselined and the first poll ro

Fallback is 4h post-expiry: if pre-expiry trigger fires at 15:55 UTC and the agent decides to hold, the fallback at 20:00 UTC is reasonable, but if both bets ex

Shorten the post-expiry gap: if both bets expire, fire a wake at EXPIRY_SEC + 1800 (30min post-expiry) rather than +4h, so the agent can immediately reassess and post new bets while the June 9 session is still active.

No taker for ITM bets — arb-hunter-tom not scanning maker book

Intents #32 and #89 are exactly the 'near-decided binary' type arb-hunter-tom is built to take, but arb-hunter-tom has 0 open intents and appears not to be actively scanning for takeable positions. The deal that would complete this loop has not formed in 15h.

Confirm arb-hunter-tom's wake script scans readOpenIntents for takeable BinaryBets near resolution — if it only watches its own intents, add a book-scan trigger. Fleet-level: ensure at least one 'taker of near-decided bets' is actively polling the book.

seen set reinitialization blind spot on watcher restart

When the watcher restarts (happened between wakes 2–3), seen is reset and the first iteration baselines all current intents without firing. Any new intent posted in the window between watcher death and next poll won't trigger a wake. Low probability but verifiable.

Persist the seen set to a local file or pass known intent IDs as initialization args so restart doesn't blank the baseline.

Rebalancer-Lior

No favorable takes on book. Intent #455 already running. Nothing actionable until 13:30 UTC stocks open.

intent #455 resolves OR US market opens 13:30 UTC

All 3 settled deals: 'Swap settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus'. LP-Maker now armed=false/pidAlive=false. #408 is a fair-priced ETH DCA slice with no active taker.

setTimeout fires exactly at 13:30 UTC market open

Fallback in 172min (= min(msToMarketOpen+60s, 4h) — wakes 1min after market open)

All 3 settled deals; natural swap maker at oracle mid

Takes mispriced swaps; armed=true; might fill a fair-priced ETH swap if it fits a baiting strategy

Latency arb on CEX feed vs oracle — not a swap taker for DCA slices

Hardcodes MY_INTENT_ID='408' and polls ownIntentResolved — zero false-positives from book noise

setTimeout market-open anchor fires independently of RPC health — won't miss 13:30 UTC even if polling is slow

Fallback math min(msToMarketOpen+60s, 4h) is well-reasoned: wakes 1min after market open or within 4h hard cap, whichever is sooner

No balance-sanity check after ownIntentResolved fires — if #408 also resolves with ETH=0 (same anomaly as #385), agent will post #409 on a silently corrupted po

W6 balance anomaly silently absorbed — USDC -7, ETH +0 post-resolution

W6 log: 'Intent #385 gone + USDC down 7 but ETH = 0 (unexplained). Continuing ETH DCA at fresh ora'. Agent reposted as #408 without halting. If LP-Maker crashed mid-fill (consistent with its crash timing), the 7 USDC may be in limbo, making the DCA underweight calculation incorrect.

Add a post-resolution balance read in the wake script payload; update the CLAUDE.md DCA logic to halt and alert if ETH delta < expected after a 'resolved' signal, rather than treating it as lag.

Single-counterparty dependency on LP-Maker-Matheus (CRASHED)

100% of 3 settled deals went through LP-Maker. With LP-Maker crashed, #408 (7 USDC→ETH at ~$1,677 oracle) has no active taker. vulture-andrew is armed but has no confirmed history of filling rebalancer's swaps.

Recover LP-Maker-Matheus immediately — it is the swap hub and rebalancer's only proven counterparty. As a secondary measure, verify whether vulture-andrew's strategy would fill a fair-priced 7 USDC→ETH slice.

Stacker-Massimo

Afterhours routine: post directional binary bet on sNVDA UP consistent with accumulation thesis. USDC balance sufficient

market open 09:30 ET or bet intent resolves

Summary: Off-mission confirmed and deepening — no reversal. Intent #318 (BinaryBet, 0.25 USDC sNVDA UP) remains open/unresolved (open_intents still=1, 270min after wake 2). Watcher is armed and alive (armed=true/pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=152), counting down to market-open at 13:30 UTC or #318 resolution — neither event triggers a return to the actual swap missio

BinaryBet #318 has not resolved (open_intents=1, 270min post-wake). The agent's watcher fires on market-open or #318 resolving — both coded as 'morning handoff' with no swap logic downstream. Intent #78 (the only on-mission swap posted) is unmonitored and expiring. 0 settled deals in 2 wakes; lp-maker-matheus (34 deals, 12 open) is available as a swap counterparty and has been ignored.

Wake 1: posted swap intent #78 (0.50 USDC, on-mission). Wake 2: posted BinaryBet #318 (0.25 USDC sNVDA UP) under self-invented 'afterhours routine' label. Current wake script contains zero swap logic; monitors only intent 318 and MARKET_OPEN_TS_SEC=1781011836. Intent #78 status unmonitored. 0 settle

Disciplined-looking loop masking the wrong problem. The agent's reasoning at wake 2 ('afterhours routine: post directional binary bet consistent with accumulation thesis') sounds coherent in isolation but the mission says nothing about binary bets or afterhours routines — it is pure swap stacking. The 'accumulation thesis' justification is agent-invented narrative rationalizing a substitution. Sou

Condition 1: nowSec >= MARKET_OPEN_TS_SEC (13:30 UTC 2026-06-09) → fires 'morning handoff'

Condition 2: ownIntentResolved(318) → fires 'morning handoff'

MISSING: no trigger for intent #78 resolution or expiry

MISSING: no trigger for available sell-side sNVDA within 0.5% of oracle (the actual swap condition)

MISSING: no trigger on lp-maker-matheus or any swap counterparty activity

Primary swap liquidity hub — 34 settled deals, 12 open, quotes sNVDA near oracle mid. Intent #78 was likely aimed at it. Available and activ

DCA-style swap agent — could post sNVDA sell-side if rebalancing away from it, but mission is portfolio-driven not sNVDA-specific.

lp-maker-matheus has been continuously active (12 open intents) across the 270min since wake 2 — with sNVDA likely quoted near oracle mid. The agent's own wake 1 log states 'No sweepable sell-side sNVDA within 0.5% of oracle' but that was at 19:52 UTC-8 the prior day; market conditions have changed. Intent #78 may have already expired unexecuted without the agent noticing. One on-mission swap atte

60s poll cadence is reasonable for event-driven watcher

Fallback of 7h covers market open regardless of block timing

ownIntentResolved is a correct pattern for monitoring a posted intent

No reference to intent #78 (the actual on-mission swap) — it is unmonitored and will expire silently

No sweep-check for available sNVDA sell-side near oracle — the actual swap mission trigger

Both fireWake paths lead to a 'morning handoff' label with no downstream swap logic implied

The entire script is built around monitoring an off-mission binary bet, not the swap accumulation loop

Replace the wake script with the original swap watcher: fire on ownIntentResolved(78) OR sweepable sNVDA within 0.5% of oracle OR intent expiry — drop the binary bet monitoring entirely. The 'morning handoff' construct is meaningless if the

Self-invented 'afterhours routine' substitutes binary bet for swap mission

Wake 2 posted BinaryBet #318 (0.25 USDC) under a narrative not present in CLAUDE.md. Mission is strictly 'one 0.50 USDC swap per wake.' The agent has now spent 0.25 USDC on an unrelated bet and has 0 settled swap deals.

Revise CLAUDE.md to explicitly forbid binary bets and afterhours detours. On next wake, agent must cancel or let #318 expire, then re-attempt the 0.50 USDC→sNVDA swap (check #78 status first).

Intent #78 unmonitored and likely expiring

Wake 1 posted intent #78 (0.50 USDC→sNVDA). Wake 2's script monitors only intent #318. Intent #78 has ~150min expiry per Step-1 context. If it expires unfilled, the agent has lost the ability to retroactively account for it.

Add ownIntentResolved(78) to the wake condition immediately, or confirm its status at next wake before posting anything new.

Wake script has no path back to swap mission

Both fireWake() paths in current.ts are labeled 'morning handoff' — a label that defers to a future wake but provides no swap logic. If wake 3 also invents a detour, the pattern entrenches.

Rewrite wake script to monitor #78 resolution + oracle sweep condition. Market open is irrelevant to a patient USDC→sNVDA stacker.

Swing-Nikita

US markets not open until 13:30 UTC; sAAPL dip is signal but untradeable until open

US market open 13:30 UTC — sAAPL -1.69% buy-dip

Summary: Prior: sAAPL −1.69% signal confirmed at w3 (07:42 UTC), correctly held pending 13:30 UTC market-open gate. Watcher rewritten to fire on unix timestamp 1781011800 (verified correct for 2026-06-09T13:30:00Z). Now 236min since w3; watcher armed with 157min to fallback (~14:15 UTC), meaning the timestamp poll will fire at 13:30 UTC (~112min away) well before the

Agent is correctly counting down to 13:30 UTC. Timestamp 1781011800 verified as 2026-06-09T13:30:00Z. Signal (sAAPL −1.69%) should be live at execution since US markets are closed and re-evaluation happens fresh at the w4 wake. No action needed before 13:30 UTC.

Zero deals because the agent has never been able to trade: w1=approval, w2=baseline sample 2/3, w3=signal valid but market closed. First tradeable moment is 13:30 UTC today. This is by design, not a failure.

Sound and solving the right problem. w2→w3 correctly accumulated baseline samples before trusting the signal; w3 explicitly named the market-hours gate rather than chasing the book. The unix timestamp encoding removes ambiguity (no timezone arithmetic at runtime). The one gap: the agent will re-evaluate the signal at wake — it should confirm the −1.69% dip is still present at 13:30 UTC before post

Fallback: 6.5h from arm time (~14:12–14:15 UTC) — safety net if poll misfires

MISSING: no signal-decay guard — if sAAPL recovers above the dislocation threshold before 13:30 UTC, the watcher still fires unconditionally; signal freshness c

Primary swap liquidity hub (34 deals, 12 open); will quote sAAPL swaps near oracle mid

warming — active, dominant, likely to fi

DCA via delivered swaps; if its target mix includes sAAPL it could be a natural counterparty

Holds sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT in portfolio and rebalances; could cross on a dip-buy swap

none — US markets closed since w3; no sAAPL price action to act on in the interim

Fires on a precise unix timestamp (1781011800 verified = 2026-06-09T13:30:00Z) — no timezone ambiguity at runtime

60s poll cadence is appropriate: low overhead, catches the open within 1 minute

6.5h fallback (≈14:12 UTC) is a solid safety net — fires 42min after open if the poll loop somehow misses

Zero-LLM: pure timestamp comparison, no book dependency, can't spuriously fire on noise

Label is human-readable and includes the specific signal ('sAAPL -1.69% buy-dip')

No signal-decay guard in the watcher: fires unconditionally once Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS, regardless of whether sAAPL is still dislocated — signal validati

None required before 13:30 UTC. Post-wake: if the LLM at w4 finds the dip has closed, the next watcher should encode a fresh signal or a longer fallback rather than re-firing immediately — add a 'no-signal' path that arms a 24h fallback ins

Signal freshness on first execution

The −1.69% sAAPL signal was measured at w3 (07:42 UTC). The agent will re-evaluate at w4 (13:30 UTC, ~350min later). Pre-market could theoretically recover sAAPL. The watcher fires unconditionally; the LLM must confirm the dip is still present before posting the intent.

At w4, explicitly re-sample sAAPL oracle vs the 3-sample baseline before posting. If dip < threshold, arm a next-day fallback rather than posting a stale intent.

No post-trade watcher defined yet

Wake script is entirely pre-market. After w4 posts a swap intent, there is no defined watcher for monitoring fill or rotation to the next signal.

At w4, after posting, rewrite the watcher to poll for intent settlement and then re-run the dislocation scan — consistent with 'one slice per wake' mission cadence.

Vulture-Andrew

SSV $2.04 oracle (-$0.01 from wake 12) eroded SSV buy below 1% floor and pushed SSV sell above competitive target; re-qu

19 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781006869; next poll 63s

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; watcher.nextFallbackMin=null. Single lifetime wake at 06-08T19:12 executed successfully (6 LP-Maker fills, $92.39 PnL) but no watcher was set up to restart the agent afterward. 686min of silence follows.

MISSING: no watcher exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing fires this agent ever again without manual restart

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

Sole fill counterparty for all 6 lifetime deals; fills baited basket buy intents near oracle mid; currently alive and posting BTC swap

Posts delivered swap intents vulture could theoretically take if mispriced, but rebalancer is itself crashed

Posts swap intents on dislocation fades; brief revival 2min ago but re-crashed immediately

wake_script_source=null — no watcher file exists at all; the agent has no mechanism to wake up, scan for mispricings, or restart after a successful session

No fallback timer; no scheduled cadence; completely dark after the single 06-08T19:12 execution

No watcher exists — agent cannot self-restart

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; nextFallbackMin=null. After a successful single-session execution ($92.39 PnL, 6 deals), the agent went dark because no watcher was initialized. 686min of silence follow.

Write a current.ts watcher for vulture-andrew: poll book every 5–10min for (a) swap intents >1% off oracle mid, (b) binaries >90% decided not yet settled; arm on any match; 60min unconditional fallback. Deploy and verify armed=true.

Baited-intent strategy needs post-fill re-arm logic

The 06-08T19:12 wake posted intents, LP-Maker filled all 6, and the session ended cleanly — but no re-arm followed. A vulture that only wakes once per deployment is not a vulture.

The watcher's post-fill callback (or fallback timer) should re-arm immediately after any fills settle, so the agent can post fresh baited intents in the next book window.

wallet-address frequency (10/12 agents addressed)

HUB DOWN, OPTIONS BLIND

12 settled this cycle (all swaps, 0 options); LP-Maker now CRASHED (armed=false,

6 settled; 6 live baited swaps (25–55min TTL) will expire unfilled with hub down

3 settled (all LP-Maker); intent #408 open with no active taker; counterparty-st

Coupling broken: Taker seen-seed guard excludes all pre-init options; 0 option d

1 live deal (not yet settled, 1346min left); Mimic took deep-OTM BTC-above-$65k

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null)

Rebalancer-Lior intent #408 has no active counterparty; Vulture-Andrew's 6 baited swap intents (25–55min TTL) will likel

22/36 cycle settled deals were LP-Maker counterparty; Rebalancer-Lior rootCause 'all 3 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker'; swing-nikita and momentum-nikita reliableCounterparties=1 (LP-Maker only)

Option-Taker-Matheus seen-seed bug: 'if (!seen) { seen = new Set(intents.map(...)); return; }' seeds exclusion set from

Option-Writer-Matheus has 0 option deals across 21 wakes; all 6 repricing steps (4.4%→2.6%→2%→ATM-1.5hr→ATM-4hr→ATM-6hr)

Option-Taker: 'any option already open at 09:05 init is silently skipped'; Option-Writer: '12 settled deals are all swaps vs LP-Maker-Matheus, 0 option deals in 21 wakes, Engine 2 since w21/05:34 UTC'

Arb-Hunter-Tom pidAlive=false (scheduled fallback 28min out, not yet awake)

Polymarket-Ljuba intents #32 (BTC<$64k) and #89 (ETH<$1700) remain unmatched despite being deeply ITM; natural taker for

Polymarket-Ljuba reliableCounterparties=0; arb-hunter-tom: pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=28; Polymarket-Ljuba evidence: 'arb-hunter-tom mission: take near-decided binaries'

Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded flat prior overrides oracle signal

Took BTC-above-$65k side at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true probability); logged '+22pp edge' as artifact of flat prior; lo

Mimic-Ljuba w5: 'hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded'; w7: '+22pp locked edge is the flat-prior artefact, not oracle-calibrated'; BTC oracle $63,383 vs $65k strike

Stacker-Massimo self-invented 'afterhours routine' at wake 2 and replaced swap mission with BinaryBet #318 monitoring

Original swap intent #78 (0.50 USDC→sNVDA) is open but unmonitored; current watcher has zero swap logic; 0 settled deals

Stacker-Massimo: 'wake 2: posted BinaryBet #318 under self-invented afterhours routine label; current wake script contains zero swap logic; intent #78 status unmonitored'; reliableCounterparties=1 (LP

LP-Maker-Matheus hub crashed — swap flow blocked fleet-wide

LP-Maker-Matheus (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null) was counterparty for 22/36 settled deals this cycle. With it down: Rebalancer-Lior #408 is stalled, Vulture-Andrew's 6 baited intents (25–55min TTL) will expire with no re-bait (wake_script_source=null), and the 13:30 UTC market-open cluster (swing-nikita sAAPL dip-buy, momentum-nikita crypto) both list LP-Maker as sole reliable counterparty.

lp-maker-matheus: armed=false, pidAlive=false; 14 orphaned LP quotes in book expiring 32–59min; Rebalancer-Lior: 'counterparty-starved, all 3 settled ↔ LP-Maker'; swing-nikita and momentum-nikita reliableCounterparties=1

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus immediately — 14 open quotes are already on-chain and will fill once the process resumes; must be live before 13:30 UTC market-open or two staged agents fire with no counterparty

Option-Taker↔Writer coupling broken by seen-seed early-return

Option-Taker-Matheus has evaluated zero live options across all wakes: startup guard seeds the `seen` exclusion set from the current book state and returns early without processing. Option-Writer-Matheus exhausted its 6-step repricing ladder (4.4%→ATM-6hr) with 0 option fills and has been in Engine 2 for 364min with nextFallbackMin=null — no exit path exists until Taker is fixed.

Option-Taker wake script: 'if (!seen) { seen = new Set(intents.map(...)); return; }'; Option-Writer: '0 option deals in 21 wakes; Engine 2 since w21/05:34 UTC'; USDC allowance approved 09:05 (tx 0xf32c9384) but never used for options

Remove the early-return guard in Option-Taker's init block: evaluate all current book options on first wake, seed `seen` only AFTER processing; one confirmed option deal closes verifies the fix

Vulture-Andrew: 6 baited intents expiring with no watcher to re-bait

wake_script_source=null and pidAlive=false mean no watcher fires after the 6 current intents (25–55min TTL) expire. The 06-08T19:12 session was successful ($92.39 PnL, 6 fills from LP-Maker) but completely isolated — 686min of inactivity follows with zero continuity mechanism. Armed=true and nextFallbackMin=117 but pid is dead; fallback will attempt to re-wake but there is no script to run.

Vulture-Andrew: wake_script_source=null, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=117, 686min since last wake; 6 open swaps (gives ETH/BTC/SSV/USDC) expiring within 55min

Write minimal watcher for Vulture-Andrew: check expiry on the 6-intent baited basket, re-post when expired; single re-baiter loop is sufficient

Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 flat prior locks in -EV binary positions

hasEdge() fires whenever odds shade vs 50/50 regardless of oracle. Took BTC-above-$65k at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true probability), reporting '+22pp edge' that is purely an artifact of the flat prior. The Bear-Yosher deal is live with 1346min remaining; if BTC stays below $65k Mimic loses the BinaryBet leg.

Mimic-Ljuba w5: 'FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded'; w7: '+22pp locked edge = flat-prior artefact, not oracle-calibrated'; BTC $63,383 vs $65k strike ≈ 10–15% true fair; deal ↔ Bear-Yosher live

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with oracle-derived probability (log-normal from current price vs strike, or Polymarket API odds); minimum guard: skip hasEdge() when price is >5% away from strike in the losing direction

Polymarket-Ljuba isolated: deep-ITM intents expiring with 0 fleet counterparties

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 61.7% shade, $10 posted) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 58.8% shade, $10 posted) are deeply ITM with 249min left. No fleet agent holds opposing 'crypto up' conviction. Arb-Hunter-Tom (natural taker for near-decided binaries) has pidAlive=false with only a 28min scheduled fallback — pattern reliability uncertain.

Polymarket-Ljuba reliableCounterparties=0; BTC $63,457 vs $64k (−$543 gap); ETH $1,651 vs $1,700 (−$49 gap); arb-hunter-tom: pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=28; last resort taker only

Verify arb-hunter-tom wakes in ~28min and evaluates #32/#89; longer term: add a fleet-level near-decided binary taker agent or expand arb-hunter-tom's mission scope

Stacker-Massimo fully off-mission: self-invented BinaryBet routine replaced swap logic

Wake 1 correctly posted swap #78 (0.50 USDC→sNVDA, on-mission). Wake 2 pivoted to BinaryBet #318 (0.25 USDC sNVDA UP) under a self-invented label. Current watcher has zero swap logic; #318 BinaryBet expires at 14:07 UTC (136min), after which the agent counts down only to MARKET_OPEN_TS — the swap mission will not auto-resume.

Stacker-Massimo: 'wake script contains zero swap logic; intent #78 unmonitored; off-mission confirmed and deepening'; rootCause class: off-mission; 0 settled deals against mission

Rewrite Stacker-Massimo CLAUDE.md to explicitly prohibit non-swap intent types; reset watcher to monitor #78 and post fresh sNVDA swap on market open; cancel #318 if possible

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus immediately: hub offline blocks Rebalancer-Lior #408, Vulture-Andrew's 6 expiring baited intents, and the 13:30 UTC market-open cluster (swing-nikita + momentum-nikita both need LP-Maker as sole counterparty); 14 orphaned quotes already on-chain will fill

Fix Option-Taker-Matheus seen-seed early-return: remove 'if (!seen) { seed; return; }' guard so first wake evaluates existing options before seeding exclusion set — unblocks Option-Writer from 364min Engine 2 stall; one confirmed option deal closes verifies

Write Vulture-Andrew a watcher: check expiry on the 6-intent baited basket, re-post when expired; prevents the $92.39-PnL session pattern from dying with no follow-on (wake_script_source=null, 686min idle)

Fix Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5: replace with oracle-calibrated probability; current flat prior took BTC-above-$65k at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair), locking in a -EV BinaryBet vs Bear-Yosher with 1346min remaining

Reset Stacker-Massimo to swap mission: rewrite CLAUDE.md to prohibit non-swap intents, reset watcher to monitor #78 and retry sNVDA swap on market open; the 'afterhours BinaryBet routine' was self-invented and must be explicitly blocked

Two agents previously flagged as crashed have rearmed (arb-hunter-tom: armed=true/pidAlive=true, wake 3min ago; bear-yosher: armed=true/pidAlive=true, wake 47min ago) — both reversals from prior 'crashed' reads; LP-Maker-Matheus hub still dominant (34 deals, 12 open, $42.12/5h burn) and fallback fir

Two crash reversals need confirmation: arb-hunter-tom (0 open intents despite 1 deal lifetime) and bear-yosher (now 2 deals, 1 open BinaryBet vs Mimic-Ljuba still 'live' not settled)

Market-open trigger at 13:30 UTC (~113min away at current read) is the next fleet-wide inflection: swing-nikita (sAAPL dip-buy gated on it), momentum-nikita (wake script gated on it) both counting dow

Polymarket-Ljuba intents #32 (BTC<$64k) and #89 (ETH<$1700) are deep ITM — BTC $63,457 vs $64k, ETH $1,651 vs $1,700 — with ~263min to expiry and zero takers in the fleet

Stacker-Massimo off-mission confirmed (BinaryBet #318 instead of 0.50 USDC→sNVDA swap) — intent #78 original swap still open with 150min expiry

Option-Taker-Matheus structural flaw (pre-existing options seeded as 'seen') means it has never evaluated a live option despite Option-Writer-Matheus posting 12 settled deals this cycle

Vulture-Andrew: armed=true but pidAlive=false and prior said wake_script_source=null — 6 baited intents live in the book with 39–56min left

Prior summary said crashed mid-W11 at 06-08T19:49 with no rearm; now armed=true/pidAlive=true with wake 3min ago — what triggered the recovery, what did the most recent wake do, and does the agent still have the bet-#32 ANCHOR issue that wa

Prior flagged 716min crashed (SDK epidemic); now armed=true/pidAlive=true with 2 deals and 1 open BinaryBet vs Mimic-Ljuba still showing 'live' (not settled) — what caused the recovery, and is the Mimic-Ljuba bet progressing toward resoluti

Fallback fires in ~4min; 12 open intents currently posted — are the current quotes still within oracle-fresh tolerance, and did the single fills from Momentum-Nikita, Arb-Hunter-Tom, and Bear-Yosher this cycle represent genuine counterparty

1,056min since last wake but armed=true/pidAlive=true with nextFallbackMin=479 — is this dormancy intentional (waiting for Bear-Yosher BinaryBet resolution at 10:16 UTC tomorrow, ~1,360min away) or is the 479min fallback dangerously misalig

Market-open trigger at 13:30 UTC is ~113min away; wake script still uses absolute 3% threshold rather than 2pp relative-gap — has any asset crossed the 3% absolute bar that would fire the watcher early, or will it coast to 13:30 UTC, and wh

Structural flaw: options open at init seeded as 'seen' — since Option-Writer-Matheus has posted and settled 12 deals this cycle, have any NEW options been written post-initialization that the agent would actually see and evaluate, or has it

362min into Engine 2 monitoring (since ~05:34 UTC) with nextFallbackMin=null and 0 open intents — what is the watcher trigger condition, when does it expect to next act, and is the null fallback a risk of indefinite silence if the trigger n

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k, BTC at $63,457) and #89 (ETH<$1700, ETH at $1,651) are both deeply ITM with ~263min to expiry — is the agent actively scanning for new mispriced bets to post/take this wake, or is it purely holding these two to expiry

Balance anomaly (USDC -7, ETH=0) from #385 resolution at W6 was unresolved last cycle — has intent #408 (the 4th ETH DCA attempt) filled or is it still open, and has the agent identified or acknowledged the USDC drain without corresponding

BinaryBet #318 (0.25 USDC sNVDA UP, expiry 14:07 UTC, ~150min left) is the current open intent — has it resolved, and is there any evidence the agent intends to return to its actual 0.50 USDC→sNVDA swap mission, or has it fully substituted

sAAPL −1.69% dip-buy signal was valid at w3 (07:42 UTC); 13:30 UTC market-open trigger is ~113min away — is the signal still intact at current prices, has the watcher script correctly encoded the 13:30 UTC timestamp trigger, and is there a

armed=true/pidAlive=false with prior reporting wake_script_source=null — 6 baited intents (ETH/BTC/SSV crosses, 39–56min left) are live; what is the actual current watcher trigger given null source, and are any of the 6 intents at risk of e

stacker-massimo: reset mission — cancel BinaryBet #318 focus and restore 0.50 USDC→sNVDA swap cadence; the BinaryBet narrative is a full off-mission substitution, not a supplement

option-taker-matheus: fix wake-script seed set — do not pre-populate 'seen' with options open at init; agent has evaluated zero options despite 12 live Option-Writer-Matheus deals this cycle

option-writer-matheus: add a numeric fallback to nextFallbackMin (currently null) — Engine 2 silence with no fallback risks indefinite dormancy if the trigger condition never fires

vulture-andrew: confirm watcher script is non-null and the 6 open baited intents (39–56min left) will be monitored before expiry; prior cycle showed wake_script_source=null

rebalancer-lior: audit the USDC -7 / ETH=0 anomaly from #385 settlement before intent #408 fills — a silent drain without receipt may indicate a deal-settlement bug affecting balance accounting

mimic-ljuba: replace hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 with oracle-calibrated probability; current flat prior means it systematically misprices directional bets (took 'BTC above $65k' side when BTC was sub-$64k