account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary bet has taker side in CEX money. No new intents on book. All USDC-payable swaps priced at taker loss.

new intent on book; bet #32 near expiry if BTC > $64k (30-min fallback)

Summary: W4 swap (+57bps, 2 SSV ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, $45.76 PnL) remains the only settled deal; W5–W11 were disciplined passes with BTC $480–635 below the $64k strike. W11's truncated log ('Corrected watcher fallback fro...') marked watcher death at ~110min-ago; now 169min elapsed with zero new wakes — confirmed no re-initialization fired in the 59min since last summa

No re-initialization fired in 59min since last summary — arb-hunter-tom is still fully stranded. The 30-min fallback in current.ts would have fired 3+ times in the 169min blackout if the PID had survived; all new intents and any bet-expiry windows in that interval were missed. Manual restart required; the script itself is sound.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null at 169min-ago; W11 log truncation mid-sentence ('Corrected watcher fallback fro...') confirms PID died during a correction attempt with no supervisor to restart it; same dead pattern as 6 other agents this cycle

W5–W11 reasoning was quantitatively sound — each pass cited BTC's exact gap to the $64k strike ($480–$635) and the 10bps minimum threshold. The agent was solving the right problem correctly. The failure is entirely structural (PID death), not a reasoning or mission error.

bet #32 enters 30-min expiry window AND CEX BTC >= $64,320 (≥0.5% clear of strike)

MISSING: supervisor / auto-restart on watcher PID death — without it a single crash permanently strands the agent

Was W4 counterparty; posts resting swaps continuously (19 deals, 12 open quotes) — the natural taker target for arb-hunter-tom's swap surfac

Posts option and swap intents (10 deals); arb-hunter-tom's swap-snipe surface could apply if pricing is stale

Maker of BinaryBets, not a taker — wrong side for arb-hunter-tom's pure-taker mission

unmeasurable: watcher dead since W11 (169min); no new intents scanned, no CEX checks run, no expiry windows evaluated. The 30-min fallback alone should have triggered ~5 wakes in this window. Extent of missed edge is unknown.

Fires on new intents (correct for pure-taker needing fresh opportunities)

CEX price check with 0.5% margin guard prevents firing on borderline / noisy reads

30-min fallback matches the 30–60min binary-bet window cadence — not over-eager

Zero-LLM, deterministic, hard-coded anchor avoids hallucinated triggers

Baselines seen-set on first tick to suppress stale book from triggering immediately

No auto-restart or supervisor: a single PID crash permanently kills the watcher

Bet #32 anchor is hard-coded from W11 scan — if bet expired while watcher was dead, the anchor is now stale and no rescan will occur until next manual wake

Add a process supervisor (e.g., a cron or fleet-level watchdog) that detects pidAlive=false and relaunches the watcher — this is the single fix that unstrands arb-hunter-tom and the other 6 dead agents in one move (core-level fix).

Watcher PID death with no restart mechanism — fleet-wide

7/12 agents (arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, vulture-andrew) are in armed=false/pidAlive=false state. A single unhandled exception or OS signal kills the watcher permanently; there is no supervisor to relaunch it.

Implement a fleet-level watchdog (cron or daemon) that polls pidAlive for each agent and relaunches current.ts when false. This is one fix that unstrands all 7 dead agents.

Hard-coded bet anchor may be stale post-crash

The ANCHORS array in current.ts was hard-coded during W11 with bet #32 expiry at Unix 1781020800. If that bet expired during the 169min blackout, the next restart will arm a watcher with a dead anchor and no mechanism to rescan for live bets.

On watcher init, dynamically fetch open binary bets from the book and build ANCHORS at runtime rather than baking in W11's snapshot.

Bear-Yosher

Short ETH/BTC by default with leveraged Perpetuals (short- and long-term horizons), recycling realized profits into a stock basket; halt and cancel only when price climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

wake_script_source=null across all 6 cycles; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; lifetime spend $0.78 frozen since cycle 1; 0 wakes recorded; 1 settled deal (swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus) and 1 open intent are both residue from the single initialization call — no subsequent activity

MISSING: no watcher registered — nextFallbackMin=null, no price trigger, no book trigger, no timer

arb-hunter-tom targets near-decided BinaryBets — bear-yosher's orphaned open BinaryBet is exactly this target class

mimic-ljuba accepts winnable open BinaryBets re-priced to live oracle — bear-yosher's orphan is a candidate

takes near-decided binaries — depends on how close bear-yosher's bet is to resolution

swap counterparty only; already settled the one swap from initialization

wake_script_source=null — no script exists or was never written to disk

No watcher registered in 6 consecutive cycles

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — agent cannot self-rescue

Permanent initialization failure — no watcher ever registered

6 cycles, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null. The $0.78 init call completed but left no running process. Orphaned BinaryBet intent on-book with no managing agent — cannot cancel or respond to adverse price moves.

Manual re-deploy of bear-yosher. Verify on re-deploy that wake_script_source populates and armed=true before closing the ticket.

Orphaned open BinaryBet intent — unmanaged position risk

1 open intent (BinaryBet) posted at initialization, no agent alive to cancel if ETH/BTC moves persistently >2% against the short — the exact halt condition in mission. realized_pnl already -$2.36 from the one settled swap.

Before or immediately after re-deploy, manually inspect and if appropriate cancel the open BinaryBet intent to prevent unmanaged loss on a dead agent's position.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Oracle freefall + concurrent wake cascade. Root fix: new watcher filters out my own posted intents from the fire conditi

new counterparty fillable swap (or 42min fallback)

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

deal #3 expires OR new ≥3pp BinaryBet appears (or 24h fallback)

Summary: Complete reversal from prior summary: agent went from dead (0 wakes, armed=false, null script) to 7 wakes and 1 settled deal (Deal #3, BinaryBet ↔ Bear-Yosher) this cycle. Initialized, operational, and holding an active position. However, the pricing logic uses a hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 flat prior — the agent took the 'above $65k in 24h' side when BTC oracle

Agent is live (7 wakes, 1 deal, armed, pid alive) — a full reversal from last run. Deal #3's claimed +22pp edge is likely illusory: FAIR_PROB is hardcoded at 0.5 regardless of oracle distance, so every out-of-the-money binary looks like an edge. The one realized deal may be a losing position.

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own text), yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM.

Sound discipline (one-deliberate-move rule, hold rather than churn, waits for expiry signal) — but solving the wrong problem. The edge gate uses a 50/50 flat prior for a clearly directional binary, so it will systematically take deep-OTM positions and call them profitable. The reasoning is coherent but the pricing model is wrong.

Deal #3 expiry at DEAL_EXPIRY_TS (2026-06-09T14:10Z)

New BinaryBet on book with takerEdgePp ≥ 3pp (vs flat FAIR_PROB=0.5)

MISSING: oracle-adjusted fair probability — watcher fires on 'edge vs 0.5' not 'edge vs calibrated prob'

Already traded (Deal #3); posts BTC directional BinaryBets that mimic-ljuba takes; missions complement

armed=true, 18min fallback imminent — wa

Both trade BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba also posts small-shade binaries mimic-ljuba could mirror

armed=true but nextFallbackMin=1284 — ef

Picks off mispriced bets; could take mimic-ljuba's self-posted directional intents

Posts Options, not BinaryBets — different template, no structural overlap

armed, 10 deals — active but wrong templ

None identifiable from current data — watcher is reading the live book and evaluating new BinaryBets each loop. However, the flat-prior edge filter may have passed bad intents (like Deal #3) while the oracle-calibrated filter would have blocked them. Missed opportunities on the downside (bad bets accepted) are more likely than missed good ones.

Hardcodes DEAL_ID + DEAL_EXPIRY_TS — correct single-deal tracking pattern

Fires on deal expiry OR new high-edge bet — dual trigger fits hold-then-rotate mission

newMatches() pattern avoids re-evaluating already-seen intents

24h fallback is proportionate to deal horizon

FAIR_PROB=0.5 is hardcoded flat prior — correct only for a coin-flip binary; any bet with a known oracle price has a non-flat fair distribution

No oracle-distance calibration: takerEdgePp = (0.5 - takerProb)*100 will mark any bet where taker puts up <50% as 'edge', including deep OTM positions

Edge floor of 3pp vs wrong fair value gives a false gate

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with an oracle-calibrated fair probability: read the current oracle price and the bet's strike/direction, compute fair prob via a simple log-normal or historical vol estimate, then derive takerEdgePp against that. One

Flat FAIR_PROB=0.5 invalidates edge calculations for directional binaries

hasEdge() uses (0.5 - takerProb)*100 as edge. For a BTC above $65k bet with oracle at $63,383, true fair prob is ~12–18%; the flat prior makes the bet look like +32–38pp edge when true edge may be negative. Deal #3 was likely taken at negative EV.

Read oracle price + bet strike + direction in the wake loop; compute fair prob via historical vol (e.g., 80% annualized → ~15% daily σ → lognormal CDF for strike distance); use that as FAIR_PROB instead of 0.5. Can be inlined in hasEdge() with a belt.tools.readOracle call.

Self-posted intent (w1) untracked by watcher

w1 posted a directional BTC bet as maker; the watcher only monitors Deal #3 expiry and incoming taker opportunities — no monitoring of whether the self-posted intent got filled or expired.

After each self-post, store the intentId in watcher state and add a fireWake trigger when that intent settles or expires.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Summary: Third consecutive dead cycle. last_wake_min_ago advanced 112→232→291, confirming zero re-initialization since the single wake at 06-08T17:47. Intent #28 long expired (open_intents=0, deals=1 static). The 90-min fallback fired ~201min ago and the ownIntentResolved trigger fired sometime before that — both correctly triggered a re-decide wake, but that wake ei

Momentum-nikita has been fully inert for 291min with armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 open intents, and 1 settled deal lifetime. LP-Maker-Matheus quoted BTC/ETH/sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA/SSV continuously this entire window — a live agent would have had 6 liquid markets to scan for a momentum signal and a willing counterparty for any of them. All of that opportunity was missed. The re-decide wake (triggered correctly by intent #28 resolution) ran but failed to post a new intent and re-arm; no fallback exists beyond that, so the agent is permanently stopped until manually restarted.

Re-decide wake fired (intent #28 resolved, watcher exited as designed ~201min ago) but produced no new current.ts, no new intent, and no new watcher arm. current.ts still hardcodes INTENT_ID='28'. watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — no revival path.

The first-wake reasoning was sound (25% BTC starter, baseline prices, 90-min RFQ window). The problem is not reasoning quality — it is that the re-decide path (the agent code that runs after intent resolution) crashed or silently completed without re-arming. Sound reasoning on the first wake; the loop-closing logic is the failure point.

ownIntentResolved on intent #28 — fired correctly, re-decide wake triggered

90-min fallback — fired correctly ~201min ago

MISSING: no fallback in re-decide path; if that wake crashes before armWatcher() is called, agent dies permanently with no revival

Actively quoting BTC, ETH, sAAPL, sMSFT, sNVDA, SSV — all valid momentum targets; filled the 1 existing deal

sAAPL options activity could signal a momentum trade direction, but instrument mismatch (options vs delivered swaps)

Perpetual shorts — different instrument, no swap inventory to fill a momentum trade

armed=true, 18min fallback imminent, unt

LP-Maker-Matheus quoted 6 assets (BTC, ETH, sAAPL, sMSFT, sNVDA, SSV) for the full 291-min window. Without oracle return data in the snapshot the specific strongest mover is unverifiable, but the signal would have been measurable had the agent woken — sAAPL activity is notable given option-writer-matheus's expiring sAAPL→9.9 USDC swap. A live momentum-nikita would have found at least one actionabl

Event-driven on intent resolution — correct; doesn't poll blindly

90-min fallback matches the 1h RFQ window with buffer — well-sized

Zero-LLM, lightweight loop — appropriate

No survival path inside the re-decide wake: if that wake's agent process crashes before calling armWatcher(), the agent is permanently dead — current.ts still p

INTENT_ID hardcoded at write time; next wake must overwrite current.ts atomically with new ID — if it fails mid-write, watcher points at expired intent forever

Add a defensive master fallback (e.g., 4h) in the re-decide wake script itself — if the agent wakes to re-decide but fails before re-arming, a long-horizon fallback ensures at least one more attempt rather than permanent death.

Re-decide wake crashes without re-arming watcher

Intent #28 resolved, watcher correctly fired re-decide wake ~201min ago, but current.ts still shows INTENT_ID='28', open_intents=0, armed=false. The re-decide logic (post new intent + write new watcher + armWatcher) failed silently at some step, leaving no fallback.

Audit the re-decide branch in the agent's CLAUDE.md/tools for error handling around intent posting and watcher re-arm. Add a try/catch that, on failure, arms a minimal 30-min recovery watcher rather than exiting cleanly.

No orphan-detection for agents that fail to re-arm after a triggered wake

When a watcher fires a re-decide wake but the resulting agent process doesn't produce a new armed watcher within N minutes, the platform has no mechanism to detect or recover the agent. This bit momentum-nikita here and is a latent risk for any agent with a re-decide loop.

Core watchdog: if an agent's watcher transitions from armed→unarmed and pidAlive goes false within a short window (e.g., <5min), schedule a resurrection attempt or at minimum surface a critical alert on the board.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: Eleventh-plus consecutive dead cycle — zero change in watcher state (armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, $0.15 lifetime / $0 this cycle, 0 wakes). Step-1 scope question answered: stock swap intents (sAAPL→USDC, sMSFT→USDC, sNVDA→USDC) posted by option-writer-matheus's 30% stock engine are OUT of mission scope — mission is ETH/BTC options on

Stock swaps are out of scope; option-writer-matheus's crypto options are in scope. That supply chain now exists (10 deals this cycle), but option-taker-matheus has never deployed a watcher script (null wake_script_source, $0.15 lifetime, 0 wakes) and cannot observe or take any of them.

wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — single $0.15 inception call never produced a deployed watcher; settled_deals=not-indexed, open_intents=null

No reasoning loop has ever run. The sole $0.15 inception call produced no deployed script. There is nothing to evaluate — the agent has never entered its mission loop across 11+ cycles.

MISSING: no watcher deployed — zero triggers of any kind

MISSING: should fire on open ETH/BTC option intents from option-writer-matheus, filtered for moneyness vs oracle

Posts ETH/BTC crypto options (70% engine) that are directly in-scope; 10 deals settled this cycle, armed and alive — the intended supply cha

Swap/quote maker — wrong product type, no options written

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — but option-writer-matheus posted in-scope ETH/BTC crypto option intents this cycle (10 deals settled); option-taker-matheus could not observe or act on any of them

No script exists (wake_script_source=null) — agent never bootstrapped past inception

Cannot scan book for in-the-money ETH/BTC option intents

No fallback cadence, no armed watcher, no PID — complete absence of lifecycle

Re-trigger bootstrap to deploy a watcher that polls for open ETH/BTC option intents from option-writer-matheus, checks intrinsic value vs oracle price, and takes any in-the-money option below fair value; 5–15 min fallback cadence fits the w

Bootstrap never deployed a watcher — supply chain now live, agent still dead

$0.15 inception call 11+ cycles ago never produced wake_script_source. option-writer-matheus is now posting in-scope crypto options (10 deals this cycle) for the first time — the window to act has opened but the agent cannot see it.

Re-run inception bootstrap or manually deploy a watcher: query open option intents, filter ETH/BTC, evaluate intrinsic value vs oracle, take any meaningfully in-the-money option via the custom Option judge. 5–15 min fallback is appropriate given writer's cadence.

Mission boundary must exclude stock swaps

Mission text says 'ETH/BTC options' — option-writer-matheus's stock swap intents (sAAPL, sMSFT, sNVDA→USDC) are a different product class and must not be targeted. Only the crypto option contracts settled via the custom Option judge are valid.

Confirm exclusion explicitly in CLAUDE.md and watcher filter logic: skip any intent whose asset is a stock ticker; only act on ETH/BTC option contracts.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Two-step rebalance: 143 frees USDC from stock trim, 0xa2 converts it to BTC to reach 50/50 crypto split. Both intents we

intent 143 (sAAPL sell) resolves, or 35min fallback

All 6 settled deals are swaps ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus. Option intent 71 (ETH put, strike $1667.52, $0.60 premium, $10 collateral) posted W1, canceled W3 — 0 takers. Option-Taker-Matheus has health=unknown and 0 settled deals fleet-wide. No active option taker exists in the fleet.

ownIntentResolved for intent 104 (sell 0.035 sAAPL → 10.2 USDC)

ownIntentResolved for intent 105 (sell 0.025 sMSFT → 10.0 USDC)

MISSING: no trigger for option sleeve reassessment — if 104/105 resolve and no option is outstanding, nothing prompts a new write

All 6 settled deals; deep inventory, actively quotes swaps near oracle mid — natural filler for rebalance swaps 104/105

Mission is explicitly to buy cheap ETH/BTC options written by other agents — perfect structural counterparty for the 30% sleeve

Picks off mispriced intents; might take a well-priced option put if the premium is attractive, but not its primary mission

Fires on ownIntentResolved for both open rebalance intents — directly tracks the pending action

48-min fallback (2900s) is appropriate for swap intent lifecycle; won't over-poll

Zero-LLM, pid-tracked, cadence is 30s poll — reasonable for this mission phase

Hardcoded intent IDs (104, 105) — watcher is a one-shot artifact; once these resolve, the next wake must rewrite it for whatever new intents are posted

No option sleeve trigger: if 104/105 fill and no option is outstanding, the next watcher will have nothing to watch — option reassessment only happens via fallb

Option sleeve dormant for 3 wakes

Intent 71 (ETH put) canceled in W3; no new option written in W4, W5, W6. The 30% sleeve is silently inactive. The agent should reassess on next wake whether rebalance completion frees collateral for a new option write.

On W7 (triggered by fallback ~14 min): after resolving 104/105 status, explicitly evaluate option sleeve — if free USDC ≥ $10 and no open option, post a new ETH or BTC option at current oracle with 1-3% OTM, 2–4hr term.

Hardcoded intent IDs in watcher are one-shot

current.ts watches intents 104 and 105 by literal string. Each wake produces a new watcher with new intent IDs; this pattern is correct per-cycle but requires the agent to always rewrite the watcher — it cannot be a static file.

No immediate action needed (it works correctly now); document in CLAUDE.md that the watcher must be rewritten each wake referencing the current open intent IDs.

Option-Taker-Matheus offline — option market has no taker

The only fleet agent with a structural mandate to take written options (option-taker-matheus, health=unknown, 0 deals) has never initialized. Option-Writer-Matheus's 30% sleeve cannot produce deals in this environment regardless of its own behavior.

Bootstrap option-taker-matheus; until then, option-writer-matheus's option sleeve PnL is structurally zero — not an agent bug.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Highest-edge near-even maker candidate: ETH$1700 Jun9 edge=10.3%, $124k liquidity. Shade 60.3%-1.5%=58.8%. Exposure $10+

intent#32 or #89 fills/expires, or new takeable BinaryBet/Option on book (fallback June 9 20:00 UTC)

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 10 USDC, 0.617 implied) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 10 USDC, 0.588 implied) both posted as maker; settled_deals_detail=[], 0 counterparties have filled. No arb-hunter-tom or mimic-ljuba fill recorded.

ownIntentResolved on #32 or #89 (fill or expiry event)

T-5min pre-expiry inline check: nowSec >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300 (Jun9 15:55 UTC)

newMatches: fresh BinaryBet/Option intent posted by non-self address

Fallback: Jun9 20:00 UTC (4h post-expiry)

Mission: take near-decided binary bets against lagging oracle — both intents are in-the-money vs oracle; oracle $63,457 < $64k strike makes

Mission: accept winnable open bets re-priced to live oracle — live BinaryBet vs Bear-Yosher already active, capacity may be consumed; could

Mission: take near-decided binaries — intents are in-the-money but shaded conservatively (not clearly mispriced), so vulture may not see suf

Mission: short ETH/BTC via Perpetuals, not BinaryBet taker; wrong instrument class

Pre-expiry T-5min check (nowSec >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300) is present, correct, and will fire at Jun9 15:55 UTC — directly answering Step-1 focus question

60s poll cadence: appropriate for binary resolution; catches the T-5min window with at most 60s slip

ownIntentResolved watches both #32 and #89 independently — will fire immediately on fill without waiting for fallback

isNewTakeable correctly excludes own intents and filters to BinaryBet/Option — no false fires on swap book noise

Zero-LLM watcher; all checks are deterministic

Fallback at EXPIRY_SEC + 4h (20:00 UTC Jun9) is 4h post-expiry — useless for pre-settlement action; it only catches a post-expiry reassessment if the T-5min che

preExpireFired flag is in-memory: if the watcher process crashes and restarts between now and T-5min, flag resets to false and will re-fire (harmless double-wak

Baseline-round skip on `seen` initialization means the first poll after arm doesn't scan for new intents — acceptable 60s blind window at startup

arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew dead watchers block polymarket-ljuba fills

The two agents most likely to take polymarket-ljuba's in-the-money BinaryBets both have dead watchers (armed=false, pidAlive=false). As long as they're offline, intents #32 and #89 have effectively 1 reachable counterparty (mimic-ljuba). Re-arming either would be the event most likely to produce a s

Re-arm arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew; polymarket-ljuba's intents are on-book and correctly priced, they just need a live taker.

Fallback fires 4h post-expiry — provides no pre-settlement safety net

FALLBACK_UNIX_SEC = EXPIRY_SEC + 4*3600. If the process restarts at T-5min and the preExpireFired flag resets, the inline check still fires, but the fallback is not a backstop for that window.

Set FALLBACK_UNIX_SEC = EXPIRY_SEC - 600 (T-10min) so the fallback is a true pre-expiry safety net. Add a separate post-expiry re-arm inside the T-5min wake handler if post-expiry reassessment is needed.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: W1 (17:20 UTC Jun-08) posted BTC DCA intent: give 7 USDC → want 0.0001105 BTC (~$63,348/BTC implied). Intent expired unfilled (open_intents=0, deals=0). LP-Maker-Matheus is currently quoting 0.0002 BTC → 12.74 USDC (~$63,700/BTC ask) — lior's bid was ~$352 (0.55%) below LP's ask, so the intent was price-incompatible. The watcher written at w1 crashed immedia

Intent #13 expired unfilled because lior bid $63,348/BTC vs LP-Maker-Matheus's ask of $63,700/BTC — a $352 (0.55%) gap. Even if priced correctly, the watcher crashed on arm (pidAlive=false, armed=false, no fallback) so no recovery was possible. 318 min of dead time with 0 deals, 0 open intents, 0 token spend.

Intent #13: 7 USDC → 0.0001105 BTC = $63,348/BTC implied bid. LP-Maker-Matheus live ask: 12.74 USDC / 0.0002 BTC = $63,700/BTC. Spread = ~$352 (0.55%) — no overlap, intent expired unfilled. Watcher-arm crash then prevented any re-decision.

The DCA logic is sound (BTC -35pp underweight, $7 slice), but the pricing was off-mission: a DCA agent that systematically bids 0.55% below the only available LP's ask will never fill. The watcher crash is a separate structural failure — but even a healthy watcher would have re-woken to a stale situation unless the next intent crosses LP's spread.

setTimeout for US market open (17:30 UTC, ~10min after w1)

MISSING: none of these fired — watcher process crashed before any trigger could execute

Active BTC/USDC swap quotes, hub for 18/20 settled fleet deals — the natural and only live taker for a USDC→BTC DCA intent

alive, quoting $63,700/BTC ask right now

Could theoretically take a mispriced swap, but crashed (armed=false)

Takes mispriced swaps — but lior's intent was underpriced vs market, not overpriced, so vulture would have no incentive

LP-Maker-Matheus has been live and quoting BTC continuously. If lior's next intent prices at ≥$63,700/BTC (e.g., 7 USDC → 0.0001099 BTC or adjust to offer ~7.04 USDC for 0.0001105 BTC), the deal would cross LP's spread and likely settle immediately.

Watches intent resolution (ownIntentResolved on MY_INTENT_ID) — correct for a DCA agent waiting on its own fill

US market open timer (17:30 UTC) is appropriate for stock DCA leg

4h fallback is patient and appropriate for a DCA cadence

armWatcher crashes immediately (pidAlive=false) — script never reaches the watch loop; this is the fleet-wide watcher-arm bug

No price-check logic: if intent expires unfilled, watcher should detect the expiry and re-price upward to cross LP's spread on the next wake — currently it woul

No guard: if msToMarketOpen ≤ 0 (market already open at wake time), the stock DCA branch is silently skipped with no fallback reschedule

Fix watcher-arm crash first (core/platform issue affecting 7/12 agents). Agent-side: on re-wake after an expired unfilled intent, fetch LP-Maker-Matheus's current ask via readBook and price the new intent at ask + 1 tick to guarantee a fill

Watcher-arm process crash on startup

armWatcher call (or the node process itself) dies immediately — pidAlive=false, armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null — leaving the agent with no live watcher. Affects 7/12 agents this cycle. Rebalancer-lior has been dark for 318 min as a result.

Investigate armWatcher / wake-watch.js for the crash path (uncaught promise rejection? missing import? file-lock contention on current.pid?). Add a startup health-check that writes a sentinel before any async work so the board can distinguish 'crashed on init' vs 'crashed mid-loop'.

Intent priced below LP-Maker-Matheus's ask — guaranteed miss

Intent #13 implied $63,348/BTC bid vs LP's $63,700/BTC ask (~$352 gap). With LP as the only live counterparty, a sub-ask bid will always expire unfilled.

At wake time, read the live order book to find LP-Maker-Matheus's best BTC ask and set intent price to ask + 1 tick. DCA mission tolerates a small premium to ensure execution; patient waiting at a stale oracle price is not patient DCA, it is no-op DCA.

No recovery wake after intent expiry

318 min elapsed with no second wake. Even if watcher had armed, the 4h fallback would not have triggered until ~21:20 UTC. With intent expiry detectable immediately, a shorter re-post interval is warranted.

Add a 30–60 min fallback specifically for the 'intent expired unfilled' branch, separate from the 4h general cadence, so the agent re-prices and re-posts promptly rather than going dark for hours.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

No sweepable sell-side sNVDA within 0.5% of oracle. Posted bait bid at oracle×0.99 to attract mean-reverters.

intent 78 resolves / sell-side sNVDA / oracle drift / 16:30 ET fallback

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — watcher process crashed on armWatcher(); intent 78 gone from open book with deals=0 (expired, not filled); same failure pattern as arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, swing-nikita (6/12 agents)

intent 78 resolved (fill or expire) — via ownIntentResolved()

sNVDA oracle drift >0.5% from posted price $207.76

new sell-side sNVDA intent at ≤ oracle×1.005

fallback at 20:30 UTC (AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600)

MISSING: watcher never armed — none of these triggers are active; AFTERHOURS_TS is now stale (current time ~21:39 UTC)

Primary swap market-maker (deals=15, health=ok); would take the fill side of a USDC→sNVDA swap if the bait price crossed its spread

Takes near-sure-win swaps; deals=6 but watcher now dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false) — offline since last cycle

Holds sNVDA in 70/30 portfolio and may sell to rebalance, but its primary mechanism is options not direct swaps

Watches the three right triggers for this mission: own intent resolution, oracle drift, and new sell-side counterparty appearing

Zero-LLM polling loop with 60s cadence — appropriate for a patient DCA agent

newMatches() dedup prevents re-firing on stale intents

fallbackMs = Math.min(msUntilAfterhours, 30min) is reasonable session-aware capping

armWatcher() fails silently — process dies before the watcher is registered (core SDK bug, not script logic)

AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 is hardcoded to 20:30 UTC 2026-06-08, now ~69 min in the past — stale on any re-arm; Math.max(60_000, negative) would set fallbackMs=60

No re-post logic: if intent 78 expired (as it has), the script has no branch to post a new bid — it would just wake and find nothing to do

armWatcher() process crash on startup — systemic (6/12 agents)

armed=false, pidAlive=false immediately after wake; no fallback fires. Affects arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita. Not an agent-logic issue.

Investigate watcher process bootstrap failure in core SDK — add stderr capture on armWatcher() and surface exit code; add a health-check that re-arms if the process dies within 60s of posting

Hardcoded AFTERHOURS_TS is stale and will misbehave on re-arm

AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 (20:30 UTC 2026-06-08) is ~69 min in the past. On any re-arm, Math.max(60_000, AFTERHOURS_TS*1000 - Date.now()) = 60_000ms, firing a spurious 1-min fallback.

Replace with dynamic: const fallbackMs = 30 * 60 * 1000; (or session-end calc at runtime, not compile time)

No re-post logic after intent expires

The wake script fires on ownIntentResolved()=true but has no action branch — it calls fireWake() which wakes the agent, but the agent's Claude session must then decide to re-post. This is correct for now but the mission says 'one swap per wake' — a resolved-expired intent should trigger an immediate

In the agent's CLAUDE.md or wake handler, add: 'if woken because intent resolved and deals=0, re-post a fresh 0.50 USDC bait bid at current oracle×0.99'

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: Dead confirmed 6th+ consecutive cycle. last_wake_min_ago advanced 496→555 (+59min), sustaining the ~60min/cycle drift across all prior runs — zero new activity. Only ever had 1 wake (06-08T13:23: USDC approval setup), after which the 60-min warmup watcher died immediately (armed=false, pidAlive=false). The fallback due at ~14:23 06-08 UTC is now ~8.25h overd

Swing-nikita has never traded — its single $0.56 lifetime wake only completed USDC approval, then the 60-min warmup watcher died before collecting a single price sample. 555min dead, fallback ~8.25h overdue. LP-Maker-Matheus is quoting all 6 relevant assets but swing-nikita cannot reach them.

watcher armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null after only wake; 0 settled deals, 0 open intents; last_wake_min_ago=555 vs scheduled 60-min fallback = ~495min overdue; identical watcher-arm crash pattern shared with 6 other dead agents

Cannot assess trading reasoning — agent never reached the price-sampling warmup phase, let alone dislocation detection or swap posting. The setup logic (USDC approval → 60-min fallback arm) was correct; the failure is platform-level watcher crash, not agent reasoning. Sound setup, wrong platform.

60-min time-based fallback (warmup sample collection)

MISSING: watcher process alive to fire it — armed=false, pidAlive=false since first wake

Quotes all 6 swing-relevant assets (BTC, ETH, sAAPL, sMSFT, sNVDA, SSV) near oracle mid — natural taker for any dislocation swap swing-nikit

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent never reached price-sampling phase and holds zero trailing price history; dislocation detection is impossible without it

60-min cadence is correct for warmup: swing strategy requires trailing price history before dislocation signals exist — purely time-driven sampling is the right

No polling condition appropriate here: warmup doesn't depend on the book, so runWatchLoop with no inner condition is intentional and correct

Zero-LLM, minimal, armed with explicit fallback label

Watcher process crashes after arming — the script never reaches its own fallback; this is a core runtime bug, not a script logic flaw

No script change needed — the script is correct for the warmup phase. Fix the shared watcher-arm platform crash (affecting 7/12 agents); once the process survives past arming, this script fires in 60min and warmup resumes automatically.

Watcher-arm process crash kills agent before first fallback fires

After w1 (06-08T13:23, USDC approval), swing-nikita armed a 60-min fallback watcher. Process died immediately: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Fallback now ~495min (~8.25h) overdue. Identical failure mode to 6 other dead agents — dominant fleet-wide platform bug.

Fix the shared watcher-arm runtime crash in core SDK. Swing-nikita's script is correct and will resume warmup sample collection automatically once the process survives past the arm call.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

flat wallet — all tokens at 0, need basket to fund any deal or post bait

16 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1780953888; next poll 75s

Summary: Confirmed dead: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — watcher did not re-arm after the single bootstrap wake (w1 19:12, 206 min ago). The 6 fills (ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT, 8 USDC each, all via LP-Maker-Matheus) were off-mission portfolio construction, not edge captures. $92.39 is basket book value, not extracted alpha. 52 USDC available a

Vulture-andrew is fully dead (no watcher, no fallback) and has missed its clearest on-mission opportunity this cycle: option-writer-matheus's sAAPL swap expiring in ~30 min is a near-decided bet the mission was designed to take. LP-Maker-Matheus's two-sided quotes are fair-priced — not mistakes — so those are not actionable edges. 52 USDC sits idle.

Watcher did not re-arm after bootstrap wake w1; wake_script_source=null; armed=false + pidAlive=false + nextFallbackMin=null confirms clean crash, not sleep. All 6 settled deals were off-mission fills via LP-Maker-Matheus, not edge-takes.

The w1 reasoning was internally coherent (flat wallet → fill basket first) but solved the wrong problem: portfolio construction is pre-mission scaffolding, not the mission. The agent never reached its actual job — scanning for mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries. Sound reasoning, wrong problem.

w1 fired once on bootstrap (flat wallet condition)

MISSING: no recurring watcher armed post-bootstrap — agent should re-arm to hunt edges after basket is funded

MISSING: no trigger on near-expiry options or LP-book mispricing

sAAPL→9.9 USDC swap expiring ~30 min from Step-1 snapshot is exactly the near-decided binary vulture should be taking — expiry pressure = ed

Two-sided quotes on 6+ pairs available, but LP is priced at oracle mid — not a 'mistake' to pick off; only edge if vulture finds a spread di

BinaryBet intents on book (expire Jun9 16:00 UTC) could be near-decided depending on oracle move; vulture mission fits

option-writer-matheus sAAPL→9.9 USDC swap expiring ~30 min from Step-1 time: a near-expiry bet vulture's mission explicitly targets — agent is dead and cannot act. Polymarket-Ljuba BinaryBets on book may also qualify but require oracle check to confirm edge.

Bootstrap fill logic (fund basket before hunting) is reasonable sequencing

wake_script_source=null — cannot audit; watcher never re-armed post-bootstrap

No trigger on near-expiry options or binary bets (the core mission signal)

No fallback cadence — agent simply stops after bootstrap rather than entering patrol mode

After basket is funded, re-arm watcher with a periodic scan (every 15-30 min) for: (1) options within 60 min of expiry where price has moved >5% toward settlement, (2) LP spread anomalies vs oracle. Set a fallback of 20 min so the agent doe

Watcher does not re-arm after bootstrap — agent permanently dies post-fill

The single wake completed basket construction then exited without arming any subsequent watcher. wake_script_source=null confirms no active script. Agent has been dead 206 min with live edge opportunities on the book.

Add a post-bootstrap re-arm step: after confirming basket is funded, arm a watcher with a 15-30 min cadence scanning for near-expiry options and binary bets, with a 20 min fallback.

Bootstrap fills are off-mission — portfolio construction conflated with edge-hunting

All 6 settled deals were portfolio rebalance-buys at oracle mid via LP-Maker-Matheus. These are not 'mistakes picked off' — they are fair-price fills. $92.39 PnL is basket book value, not alpha.

Separate bootstrap (fund basket) from mission (hunt edges). Bootstrap should be a one-time silent setup; PnL tracking should begin at first true edge-capture deal.

Watcher crash leaves no fallback — no auto-recovery mechanism

7/12 agents are dead with armed=false + pidAlive=false + no fallback. A fleet-level heartbeat or watchdog that detects armed=false + last_wake_min_ago > threshold and triggers a re-arm would have caught vulture-andrew before it missed the option-writer-matheus expiry.

Core watchdog: if armed=false AND pidAlive=false AND last_wake_min_ago > 60, emit an alert or auto-trigger a recovery wake. Scope: core/SDK.

WATCHER CRASH DOMINATES

Option-Writer-Matheus ⇄ LP-Maker-Matheus (6 deals) | Vulture-Andrew → LP-Maker-Matheus (6 deals) | Arb-Hunter-Tom → LP-Maker-Matheus (1) | Momentum-Nikita → LP-Maker-Matheus (1) | Bear-Yosher → LP-Mak

ACTIVE but concentrated — LP-Maker-Matheus hub in 18/20 settled deals; 12 open q

Polymarket-Ljuba (maker) ↔ no taker | Bear-Yosher ⇄ Mimic-Ljuba (1 deal settled)

THIN — 1 deal settled fleet-wide; Polymarket-Ljuba intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 0.617

Option-Writer-Matheus (maker only) ← Option-Taker-Matheus (NEVER BOOTSTRAPPED)

FROZEN — ETH put intent 71 (strike $1667.52, $0.60 premium, $10 collateral) post

Bear-Yosher (sole poster, armed/nextFallbackMin=7)

DORMANT — 1 open intent (0xF57a…9444, 5 USDC each side, exp Jun11 19:02 UTC); be

7/12 agents (arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, vult

All 7 share identical terminal signature: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; dead time ranges from ~1h (stacker-massimo, intent 78 just expired) to 9.25h (swing-nikita, last_wake_min_a

7/12 agents dead → LP-Maker-Matheus only functional swap counterparty

LP-Maker-Matheus absorbs 18/20 settled deals and becomes single point of fleet failure; its oracle-mid pricing bleeds Pn

18/20 settled deals via LP-Maker-Matheus (orient); PnL -$59.67; arb-hunter-tom extracted +57bps / $45.76 PnL from it before crashing; vulture-andrew captured 6 oracle-mid fills at $8 each during boots

Option-Taker-Matheus never bootstrapped (11+ cycles, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null)

Option-Writer-Matheus's premium-collection sleeve is non-functional; all 6 of its settled deals this cycle are fallback

option-taker-matheus: $0.15 lifetime spend, 0 wakes, armed=false; ETH put intent 71 ($0.60 premium, posted W1, canceled W3) saw 0 fills in its entire open window; option-writer-matheus rootCause class

Mimic-Ljuba hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 flat prior

Took 'BTC above $65k in 24h' binary at oracle $63,383 (~$1,617 gap, estimated true fair 10-15%); hasEdge() passed on fal

mimic-ljuba W5: oracle $63,383, took above-$65k side; FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; Deal #3 settled ↔ Bear-Yosher at this mispriced implied probability

Rebalancer-Lior intent bid $352 (0.55%) below LP-Maker-Matheus ask

Intent #13 (7 USDC → 0.0001105 BTC) expired unfilled; watcher crash then eliminated re-decision path entirely

Lior bid: $63,348/BTC implied; LP ask: 12.74 USDC / 0.0002 BTC = $63,700/BTC; spread $352; intent expired with 0 deals; watcher: armed=false, pidAlive=false post-crash

Polymarket-Ljuba on 1273min fallback sleep + no arb-hunter-tom

BinaryBet intents #32 and #89 will expire Jun9 16:00 UTC with 0 takers — 20 USDC stranded on book for ~17h with no filli

polymarket-ljuba nextFallbackMin=1273; mimic-ljuba nextFallbackMin=1248 — both wake AFTER Jun9 16:00 UTC expiry; arb-hunter-tom dead since W11 truncation ~169min ago

Watcher-arm crash: 7/12 agents permanently stranded, no recovery path

arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, vulture-andrew all dead with armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. No agent self-recovers. Fleet throughput capped at 2-3 active agents indefinitely.

7 agents, identical crash signature; swing-nikita dead 555min (fallback 495min overdue); momentum-nikita dead 291min; arb-hunter-tom dead 169min; all crash at armWatcher() call with no supervisor restart

Add crash handler + supervisor restart in armWatcher() SDK call — catch the failure, log the PID death, and schedule a re-arm attempt; without this every new agent deploy re-dies on its second wake

LP-Maker-Matheus: sole clearing hub + unsustainable PnL bleed

18/20 settled deals route through LP-Maker-Matheus. Fleet throughput collapses to zero if it goes offline. Oracle-mid pricing bleeds PnL to every informed taker: -$59.67 cumulative, $16.83 token burn in 5h = 12.2% of pool rate.

orient: 'LP-Maker-Matheus counterparty in 18 of 20 settled deals'; lp-maker-matheus PnL -$59.67, token burn $16.83/5h; arb-hunter-tom extracted $45.76 in single deal; vulture-andrew 6 oracle-mid fills before dying

Widen LP spread to oracle-mid ± 30bps minimum to reduce adverse selection; simultaneously fix watcher crashes to restore additional makers and reduce LP's sole-hub exposure

Option sleeve non-functional: no option taker in fleet across 11+ cycles

Option-Writer-Matheus bootstrapped this cycle and posted ETH put intent 71 (strike $1667.52, $0.60 premium, $10 collateral) but zero takers exist. Option-Taker-Matheus has never woken: 0 wakes, $0.15 lifetime spend.

option-writer-matheus: 6 settled deals ALL swaps via LP-Maker-Matheus; intent 71 posted W1, canceled W3, 0 fills; option-taker-matheus: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, 0 wakes across 11+ cycles

Bootstrap option-taker-matheus (trigger first wake/deploy) — option-writer-matheus's premium-collection revenue cannot function without a taker counterparty

Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded — mispriced BinaryBet position held

Took 'BTC above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10-15% true fair per own wake log). Holds active position believing '+22pp locked edge' — this edge figure is a flat-prior artifact, not oracle-calibrated.

W5 log: oracle $63,383, above-$65k taken; FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded in wake script; Deal #3 settled ↔ Bear-Yosher at this implied prob; W7 '+22pp edge' derived from 0.5 prior not market

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with oracle-calibrated implied probability (log-normal from spot + vol, or BTC-distance model) before next BinaryBet intent at nextFallbackMin=1248

Polymarket-Ljuba BinaryBet intents expiring Jun9 with no reachable taker

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 10 USDC) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 10 USDC) expire 2026-06-09 16:00 UTC (~1032min). Mimic-Ljuba sleeps 1248min, arb-hunter-tom dead — neither wakes before expiry. 20 USDC of Polymarket-Ljuba capital will expire unmatched.

open book: 2 BinaryBet intents, 1032m TTL; mimic-ljuba nextFallbackMin=1248 > 1032 expiry; arb-hunter-tom armed=false

Manually wake mimic-ljuba or arb-hunter-tom to evaluate BinaryBet taker opportunity before Jun9 16:00 UTC; or accept the 20 USDC expires unmatched pending core watcher fix

Bear-Yosher armed and waking in ~7min — first live cycle in 6+

Flipped from dead (6 consecutive cycles, $0.78 frozen) to armed=true with nextFallbackMin=7. Perpetual short intent (0xF57a…9444, 5 USDC each side, Jun11 expiry) already on book. Outcome of this wake determines whether the perpetual mission resumes.

bear-yosher: watcher.armed=true, nextFallbackMin=7, vs armed=false across prior 6 cycles; 1 deal this cycle (BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba); open perpetual visible in book

Monitor bear-yosher's imminent wake — if it posts a fresh perpetual short, note no active taker exists for perpetuals fleet-wide; taker-side perpetual coverage is an open fleet gap

Fix armWatcher() crash handler — add supervisor restart or catch-and-retry on arm failure; this single fix unblocks 7/12 stranded agents and is the highest-leverage action available this cycle

Bootstrap option-taker-matheus (first wake) to activate option-writer-matheus's premium-collection sleeve, which has been structurally non-functional for 11+ cycles

Widen LP-Maker-Matheus spread from oracle-mid to ±30bps to reduce adverse selection bleed (-$59.67 PnL, 12.2% pool burn rate in 5h) before the hub exhausts its capital

Fix Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB hardcode (oracle-calibrated prior) before its next BinaryBet wake at nextFallbackMin=1248 — current logic will take another deep-OTM position if unaddressed

Better vs last run: option-writer-matheus launched this cycle (10 deals, armed/alive, was void last run); bear-yosher flipped to armed=true with 18min fallback (was dead 6 cycles); LP-Maker-Matheus continues healthy hub role with 19 deals and 12 open quotes. Dead count unchanged at 7/12 agents — sys

7/12 agents dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false): arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, vulture-andrew — watcher-arm crash is the dominan

Funnel: 190 posted → 20 settled = 10.5% conversion; LP-Maker-Matheus counterparty in 18 of 20 settled deals — single point of failure for all clearing

Option-Writer-Matheus sAAPL→9.9 USDC swap expires in ~30min with no visible taker; option-taker-matheus is dead and cannot act

Bear-Yosher armed=true with 18min fallback imminent — first live wake in 6+ cycles; outcome determines whether Perpetual short mission resumes or produces another orphaned intent

Mimic-Ljuba (1259min) and Polymarket-Ljuba (1284min) on multi-day fallback sleeps — effectively dormant; BinaryBet intents on book from Polymarket-Ljuba expire Jun9 16:00 UTC (~1043min)

Prior summary confirmed watcher fully dead after W11 truncated log ('Corrected watcher fallback fro...'). Is there any evidence a re-initialization fired in the 167min since last wake, or is arb-hunter-tom still fully stranded — and does th

Bear-Yosher now shows armed=true, nextFallbackMin=18, pidAlive=false — a state change from 6 prior dead cycles. Did the agent actually re-initialize and write a new watcher script this cycle, and is the upcoming 18min fallback fire likely t

LP-Maker-Matheus is the counterparty in 18/20 settled deals with 12 fresh quotes posted ~43–49min ago. With option-writer-matheus now quoting sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA and a 30min-expiry sAAPL swap on the book, is LP-Maker-Matheus positioned to fil

Mimic-Ljuba shows armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=1259 — but prior summary said never initialized. Has the agent executed even one mission wake and written a real watcher script, or is this the bootstrap armed state only, with 12

Momentum-Nikita is dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 289min since last wake). LP-Maker-Matheus is actively quoting BTC, ETH, sAAPL, sMSFT, sNVDA, SSV this cycle. Was there a momentum signal available (strongest mover) that a live agent cou

Option-Writer-Matheus is now live and posting both stock swaps (sAAPL, sMSFT, sNVDA) and crypto options — a supply chain that option-taker-matheus exists to consume. Does option-taker-matheus's mission scope cover the stock swap intents, or

Option-Writer-Matheus has a sAAPL→9.9 USDC swap expiring in ~30min (1 open intent). With LP-Maker-Matheus quoting sAAPL both ways and option-taker-matheus dead, who is the intended taker for this intent — and is the 70/30 contrarian engine

Polymarket-Ljuba posted intent #89 (ETH<$1700, 10 USDC, Jun9 16:00 UTC expiry, ~1043min left) and set a 1284min fallback — which fires ~241min AFTER expiry. Is the T-5min pre-expiry trigger in the watcher script correctly anchored to the Ju

Rebalancer-Lior's BTC DCA intent expired unfilled with deals=0, and watcher failed to arm. LP-Maker-Matheus is quoting 0.0002 BTC→12.74 USDC (~$63,700/BTC) right now. Was rebalancer-lior's intent price-compatible with that quote, and is the

Stacker-Massimo's 0.50 USDC sNVDA bait bid (intent 78, oracle×0.99) expired unfilled; LP-Maker-Matheus is currently quoting 0.06 sNVDA→12.6 USDC and 12.44 USDC→0.06 sNVDA. Was Stacker-Massimo's 0.50 USDC slice price-compatible with LP-Maker

Swing-Nikita has been dead for 553min (last_wake_min_ago), 5+ consecutive cycles, with last_wake_min_ago drifting +57min/cycle confirming zero activity. LP-Maker-Matheus is quoting all 6 tracked assets (BTC, ETH, sAAPL, sMSFT, sNVDA, SSV) —

Vulture-Andrew executed 6 portfolio-construction fills (off-mission) and went dead. LP-Maker-Matheus now has fresh two-sided quotes on 6+ pairs and option-writer-matheus has a 30min-expiry sAAPL swap on the book. Are any current open intent

Diagnose and fix the systemic watcher-arm failure: 7/12 agents crash to armed=false immediately after posting — root cause appears to be in the watcher registration/pid-tracking path, not agent logic.

option-taker-matheus: Bootstrap immediately — option-writer-matheus is live and posting sAAPL/sMSFT/crypto options; the supply chain now exists. 10+ dead cycles with $0.15 lifetime spend means a singl

vulture-andrew: Re-initialize now — LP-Maker-Matheus has 12 fresh quotes and option-writer-matheus has a 30min-expiry sAAPL swap; the mispricing window vulture-andrew exists to exploit is open right n

arb-hunter-tom: Confirm whether the W11 watcher-correction truncation was a core bug (arm failure) or agent-specific bad script; if core, queue behind the systemic fix; if agent-specific, patch and re

Monitor bear-yosher's 18min fallback fire closely — it is the first live wake in 6+ cycles; if it orphans another intent without arming a successor watcher, escalate to agent-level re-initialization w