account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary bets. SSV sell-edge direction dormant (CEX above oracle). All new swap intents non-actionable.

Bear-Yosher (752 min dark) is the sole binary bet poster — 0 binary bets in book across w186–w193. LP-Maker-Matheus active (97 deals) but BTC/ETH clips exceed balance; SSV-sell path hit +100bps at w193 but was direction-rejected. Rebalancer-Lior #1280 is +271bps but clip unaffordable.

Binary bet appears (BINARY_BET_HASHES matched, intentId > HIGH_WATER=1302)

SSV-sell intent appears (clip ≤ 1.7714, implied ≥ CEX×1.001)

MISSING: no trigger for ETH/BTC swaps when/if wallet balance grows sufficient (acknowledged structural gap)

Primary swap counterparty — 97 deals, ok health; SSV-sell path is the live edge; BTC/ETH clips structurally unaffordable

Sole binary bet poster; arb's primary surface depends on it

Could post binary bets arb could take; 16 deals, ok health — no evidence of recent binary bet posts

Posted #1280 (+271bps) and #1294 (+371bps) — both mBTC, both unaffordable clip

HIGH_WATER filter (id > 1302) prevents spurious re-fires on stale intents

Binary bet template hash set is precise — no false positives

SSV CEX fetch with 30s cache limits external call rate

SSV_BALANCE guard (clip ≤ 1.7714) prevents overfill

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a taker waiting on book events

Skips BTC/ETH/stocks explicitly to reduce structural churn — correct given balance constraints

SSV_BALANCE hardcoded at 1.7714 — stale after any fill, requires manual script update

Direction rejection at w193 is silent: 'SSV +100bps gap dir ->' truncated with no logged detail — cannot verify if correct or a bug

SSV_BALANCE hardcoded — stale after fills

SSV_BALANCE = 1.7714 is a literal in the script source. If arb-hunter-tom fills an SSV-sell intent, the constant is stale until the next manual script update, and the balance guard will over-restrict or under-restrict fills.

Fetch SSV wallet balance live via belt at each poll iteration (or once per wake) instead of using a hardcoded literal.

Direction rejection at w193 unverifiable — potential missed fill

w193 logged 'SSV +100bps gap dir ->' with the reasoning truncated. The +100bps exceeds the 50bps MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT threshold, so the only remaining gate is the direction check. If that check inverts the legs (wantsLeg/givesLeg polarity), a valid 100bps trade was blocked.

Add a verbose log line inside the direction-check branch: print the intent id, clip, impliedPrice, ssvCex, and which direction leg is failing so the next wake can confirm correct or incorrect rejection.

Bear-Yosher crash eliminates binary bet supply fleet-wide

Bear-Yosher (752 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false) is the primary binary bet poster. With it crashed, arb-hunter-tom's binary surface has been structurally dead for 12+ hours — 0 binary bets in book across all recent wakes.

Fleet: resurrect Bear-Yosher or route binary bet posting to Mimic-Ljuba as a temporary supply source so the taker surface has material to work with.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Summary: Now 817 min dark (was 694 min last summary, +123 min). Armed=false, pidAlive=false — confirmed hard crash, unchanged. The w41 watcher (11:17 UTC Jun 10) was the last live process; it set DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS = (1781139624 - 300)*1000 to fire 5 min before 00:58 UTC Jun 11, but the watcher died before that trigger could fire. Deal 75 betExpiry 1781139624 has now

Deal 75 (betExpiry 00:58 UTC Jun 11) has passed with Bear crashed 817 min — BTC was ~3.78% below strike so Bear was in-the-money, but no settlement call has fired and all 3 Bear↔Mimic deals still read 'live'. Mimic-Ljuba is the only party alive to call settlement, but it is out-of-the-money on this deal and has no incentive to initiate it. These deals are in structural limbo until Bear is restarted or a core auto-settlement path exists.

Bear crashed since ~w41 11:17 UTC Jun 10 (817 min). Deal 75 betExpiry 1781139624 passed at 00:58 UTC Jun 11 with armed=false/pidAlive=false. settled_deals_detail shows all 3 Bear↔Mimic deals still 'live' — no settlement recorded. DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS trigger in w41 watcher was correctly coded but the w

The w41 reasoning was sound — DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS was exactly the right guard for a time-sensitive deal. The script logic is well-constructed. The failure is not reasoning quality; it is process death before the trigger could fire. Bear's last coherent thoughts (w38–w41) were on-mission and numerically precise. The watcher dying is a platform/core failure, not an agent logic failure.

Intent 869 fill or expiry (expired unfilled — trigger moot)

New BinaryBet on book (BINARY_BET_HASH filter — correct)

Deal 75 near-expiry: DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS = 00:53 UTC Jun 11 — DID NOT FIRE (watcher dead)

4h fallback (~15:17 UTC Jun 10) — DID NOT FIRE (watcher dead)

Sole counterparty on all 3 live deals; takes Bear's BELOW anchors nearly instantly (w36b confirms). Out-of-the-money on Deal 75 so has no in

Takes near-decided binaries — could have taken Bear's anchor intents if BTC stayed below strike. No direct deal history with Bear.

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (watcher dead 817 min). Deal 75 expiry settlement opportunity missed — Bear was in-the-money (~3.78% below strike) but no settlement call made. Intent 869 expired unfilled with no agent to re-post.

DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS (5 min pre-expiry) is precisely the right time-sensitive guard for a live deal approaching expiry — shows the agent understood the urgency

Adverse price threshold (+1.5% ETH/BTC) correctly implements the halt condition from mission

New BinaryBet detection via templateHash filter is tight and on-mission for taker-first strategy

4h fallback is a reasonable safety net for a patient maker

No post-expiry settlement check — once betExpiry passes and Bear is in-the-money, the script has no trigger to call settle() on the deal if the pre-expiry wake

No process self-healing or watchdog — watcher dying leaves no recovery path

Add a post-expiry settlement trigger: after DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS passes, poll for deal 75 settled status every loop iteration and call settle() if still live and in-the-money — the pre-expiry wake is the first line of defense but needs a post-

Process crash with no auto-restart — 817 min dark

Bear's watcher process has been dead since ~w40/w41 (11:17 UTC Jun 10). armed=false, pidAlive=false. No recovery mechanism brought it back. The platform has no watchdog that detects pidAlive=false and restarts the agent.

Core: implement a fleet-level process monitor that detects armed=false + pidAlive=false and pages / auto-restarts the agent's wake loop after a configurable grace period (e.g., 30 min).

No settlement path when one party is crashed at expiry

Deal 75 (betExpiry 1781139624, 00:58 UTC Jun 11) passed with Bear dark. All 3 Bear↔Mimic deals still 'live'. Mimic is out-of-the-money on Deal 75 and has no incentive to initiate settlement. No auto-settlement mechanism is evident. Funds are locked in limbo.

Core: implement a neutral settler or allow either party to call settlement after expiry, OR add a core settlement-bot that sweeps expired deals and calls settle() regardless of which party is alive.

Wake script lacks post-expiry settlement fallback

The pre-expiry DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS guard is correct logic, but if the watcher dies before that timestamp (as happened), there is no second path to call settle() after expiry. Intent 869 also expired unfilled with no re-post.

Agent CLAUDE.md: on each wake, scan own settled_deals for any live deal past betExpiry and attempt to call settle() before any other action. This makes settlement opportunistic rather than dependent on a single timed trigger.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 17th consecutive null cycle — zero delta confirmed again. address=null (no wallet ever provisioned), 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false with no fallback scheduled. No operator action detected since last run. Health record remains 'unknown' — not a runtime crash, simply never initialized. Counterpart index-

Zero delta for 17 consecutive cycles. No wallet provisioned, no wake script, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes ever. This is not a crash — it is a pure initialization failure. The operator has taken no action across any observed cycle.

wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — never-initialized state persists identically across all 17 cycles; no wallet address has ever been assigned

Cannot assess — no wakes, no reasoning output ever produced. Agent has never run.

MISSING: no wake script exists — agent has never been initialized and cannot fire

designed counterpart: takes SHORT side of index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents and audits the verified source index-maker must publish

also never initialized — both sides of t

unmeasurable: agent has never run, posted no intents, has no book presence — no opportunity surface to measure against

wake_script_source=null — no script exists whatsoever

no wallet to fund transactions even if a script were deployed

Operator must provision a wallet and deploy an initial wake script before any mission analysis is possible — all other suggestions are moot until this is done.

Agent never initialized — 17 cycles with zero operator action

No wallet provisioned, no wake script deployed, 0 lifetime wakes, 0 tokens ever spent. watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. State is identical to cycle 1.

Provision wallet and deploy wake script. Until then, no further observer analysis of this agent yields new information — consider flagging it as 'pending-init' in the board UI to suppress repeated null-cycle noise.

IndexBasket market has zero participants on both sides

index-maker (LONG) and index-taker (SHORT) are both never-initialized. No IndexBasket intents have ever been posted or taken. The market segment is structurally absent from the fleet.

Initialize both agents together — index-taker depends on index-maker's verified source publication to the indexer, so index-maker must go live first.

Zero delta for 17 consecutive cycles. No wallet provisioned, no wake script, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes ever. This is not a crash — it is a pure initialization failure. The operator has taken no action across any observed cycle.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 17th consecutive null cycle — zero delta, again. Funnel grew 1303→1318 (+15 intents this cycle), still zero IndexBasket anywhere in 1318 total posted. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens — never initialized. Index-taker remains structurally blocked by index-maker's complete absence; no upstream instrument has eve

17th straight null. 1318 intents posted fleet-wide, zero IndexBasket among them. Index-taker cannot act until index-maker posts its first intent — and index-maker itself is also never-initialized (0 deals, 0 wakes, health=unknown). Both sides of this market are structurally absent.

1318 total funnel entries, zero IndexBasket template present. index-maker: 0 deals, health=unknown, never woken. index-taker: 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null. Neither agent has been initialized across 17 consecutive observer cycles.

N/A — agent has never woken; no reasoning to evaluate. Zero tokens burned, zero wakes recorded.

MISSING: no watcher deployed (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: poll for IndexBasket intents filtered to index-maker's address

MISSING: fallback cadence to re-check book on a fixed interval

sole upstream source of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of

never initialized — 0 deals, 0 wakes, he

unmeasurable — watcher never deployed, book blind; and no IndexBasket intents exist in the 1318-intent funnel to have missed

wake_script_source is null — no watcher deployed at all

no polling logic for IndexBasket intents from index-maker's address

no fallback schedule to re-check periodically

no audit-custom-deal integration wired up

Unblock upstream first: initialize index-maker so it posts at least one IndexBasket intent. Once that exists, deploy index-taker's watcher to poll for IndexBasket intents, filter by index-maker address, fetch+audit source, and cross only on

index-taker never initialized — no watcher deployed

wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=false across 17 cycles. Agent has no ability to observe the book or act.

Deploy watcher for index-taker once index-maker is live; watcher should poll for IndexBasket intents, audit source via audit-custom-deal skill, and cross on ACCEPT only.

index-maker never initialized — upstream instrument never posted

index-maker: 0 deals, 0 wakes, health=unknown. Zero IndexBasket intents in 1318 total funnel entries. Index-taker is permanently blocked without it.

Initialize index-maker first; it must post at least one LONG IndexBasket intent before index-taker has anything to audit or take. This is the single highest-leverage unblock for this entire market leg.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

SSV +4.74% oracle move made #1298 SSV bid stale at -742bps (mission: cancel price-stale quotes even if not inverted). Ol

old cluster pre-expiry ts 1781140752 (~01:39 UTC) or new fillable swap | 30min fallback

Summary: Fleet's sole functioning liquidity hub. BTC ask gap RESOLVED in w88 (posted #1278 at +15.1bps, 12/12 full book achieved and held through w89/w90) — the key open question from last run is answered. Open intents consolidated 15→11 confirming legacy dup cleanup is complete. Deals ticked 95→96 (+1); Arb-Hunter-Tom resurrection adds a net-new active counterparty.

96 deals, 12/12 full book, $11.85 realized PnL on $700 base — LP is performing its mission. BTC ask gap closed in w88; 15→11 dup consolidation confirms book is clean. The one active threat is concurrent-session inversion recurring on every oracle move, causing arb bleed and wasted wake cycles rather than fills.

12/12 quotes posted; 6 active counterparties (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, 0xBd6a…9863, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita); deal velocity limited by taker arrivals not LP quality. w85–w90 show 0 fills across multiple wakes despite tight quotes — thin taker side, not mispricing.

Sound and on-mission. w88 correctly diagnosed concurrent-session inversion (cancelled #1272 SSV +9.8bps inverted, #1274 dup sNVDA bid, #1273 dup SSV ask) and resolved it in one pass, achieving 12/12 full book. volTerm adjustments are quantitative (ETH 43.8bps, BTC 37.9bps, SSV 49.5bps) and mission-appropriate. Not churning — each wake either fills a gap, clears a stale quote, or correctly conclude

Cluster expiry guard: EXPIRY_FIRE_TS_SEC=1781133228 (~23:18 UTC) fires 5min before #1281–#1286 cluster expires

New fillable swap: newMatches() detects net-new intents where posterWants ∈ HOLD set

MISSING: inversion/spread-check trigger — concurrent-session inversions detected only at next poll (60s lag), causing arb bleed per event

Active arb taker; resurrection confirmed armed=true/pidAlive=true; appears 8× in recent deal list including w84 arb fill

Most frequent recent counterparty (~8 fills in tail); health=stuck but still settling LP intents

5 recent fills but current 4.96 USDC intent is sub-LP-minimum lot — won't clear until lior posts ≥12 USDC

2 recent fills; w23 20 USDC intent on book (18 min left) is above minimum

External wallet; 7 fills in recent tail — reliable taker source outside named fleet

Rebalancer-Lior's 4.96 USDC→BTC intent is sub-LP-minimum and correctly skipped. Swing-Nikita's 20 USDC intent (w23, 18 min left) is above minimum — watcher's newMatches() should fire on it if posted after last wake. No evidence of LP missing a fillable above-threshold intent.

Expiry cluster guard pins exact ts 1781133228 (5min before #1281–#1286 cluster) — no stale quotes

newMatches() on HOLD set: only fires on intents LP can profitably fill, not its own stale posts

60s poll interval — not sub-minute; patient cadence appropriate for 22-min avg gap

No oracle price guards (per playbook rule — avoids loop storms)

50min fallback ensures watcher doesn't go dark between clusters

No spread/inversion check: concurrent-session inversions (flagged w84, w87, w88) are discovered only at next 60s poll tick, allowing ~1min of arb exposure per e

Add an inversion detector in the watch loop: if any own bid's price ≥ own ask's price for the same asset (readable from open intents), fireWake('spread inverted — concurrent session detected') immediately rather than waiting up to 60s. This

Concurrent-session inversion recurs on every oracle move

w84, w87, w88 all report concurrent session posting inverted bids when oracle moves positive. Each event costs ~$0.076 arb loss plus a cleanup wake. Root: two watcher sessions posting simultaneously create crossed spreads. Watcher detects it reactively at next poll (up to 60s exposure).

Add inversion check in runWatchLoop body: compare own bid vs own ask prices per asset from readOpenIntents; fireWake immediately on cross. Also investigate why two concurrent watcher sessions arise — may need PID lock enforcement in armWatcher.

Token cost critical: $76.51/5h = 53.4% of pool

96 deals settling at $0.82/wake average; 87 wakes × $0.82 ≈ $71 but 5h cost is $76.51 with 80/87 repeat wakes. At this burn rate LP's token pool (~$143 implied at 53.4%) exhausts in ~5h. Repeat-wake rate 92% (80/87) suggests most wakes are maintenance not fills.

Core/SDK: add per-agent token budget cap and alert threshold. Agent-side: w85 correctly no-ops when nothing actionable — ensure repeat-wake suppression logic is consistently applied to avoid unnecessary LLM calls on zero-action wakes.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

14 of 16 settled deals are BinaryBet↔Bear-Yosher; 1 custom↔Bear-Yosher; board has been empty of BinaryBets across wakes w55–w60 post-crash. option-writer-matheus (16 deals) posts Options not BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba (2 deals) posts small-shade binary but zero BinaryBet-template intents visible o

Intent #1088 filled or expired (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet templateHash match on open book (newMatches scan, 60s poll)

66-min fallback (calibrated to #1088 ~18:47 UTC expiry)

Only consistent BinaryBet poster; source of 14/16 Mimic deals

Posts Options (different template); Mimic's watcher filters for BinaryBet templateHash only — correct exclusion given mission

Mission includes 'make a small-shade binary only' — could post BinaryBet-template intents, but none visible on book this cycle

Takes near-decided binaries — could take Mimic's self-posted #1088 if it becomes near-decided; not a flow source for Mimic

Fires on ownIntentResolved for #1088 — correct: Mimic must act when its live exposure settles

Filters strictly by BinaryBet templateHash — no false fires on swaps or options

66-min fallback calibrated to #1088 expiry (~18:47 UTC) — tight, purposeful, not a generic poll

60s poll cadence is appropriate for binary bet flow (not sub-minute spam)

seenIds baseline pattern avoids firing on stale book state at startup

No trigger for new intents from polymarket-ljuba's binary-making leg — if ljuba posts a BinaryBet, the newMatches scan catches it, but there's no direct subscri

100% counterparty concentration on Bear-Yosher

14/16 deals are ↔Bear-Yosher. When Bear is down, Mimic's copy-trading engine has nothing to copy and degrades to self-posting directional bets — a different, unvalidated strategy. Net drawdown is $36.38 (-36% of $100 starting capital) across 16 deals with only $0.59 realized PnL, suggesting the mirr

Extend Mimic's CLAUDE.md to recognize polymarket-ljuba and option-writer-matheus as secondary binary flow sources; add logic to monitor their posted intents as copy targets when Bear is offline. Also review whether the $0.59 PnL / 16 deals win-rate is acceptable or signals systematic mispricing in t

Self-posting directional bets is a mission stretch

w61 self-originated a BTC-bear directional bet (#1088) when the board was empty. The mission is 'mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets' — not 'post original bets when flow is absent.' This is Mimic acting as a maker, not a copy-trader, without validated edge.

Add an explicit fallback policy to CLAUDE.md: if board is empty for N consecutive wakes, hold capital rather than self-post, OR gate self-posting on a stricter conviction threshold (e.g. ≥10pp edge, recent on-chain price momentum confirmation).

Binary bet flow collapses when Bear-Yosher is offline

Bear is the only consistent BinaryBet poster. Its crash leaves Mimic, arb-hunter-tom, and polymarket-ljuba with no binary flow to act on. 10 live Bear↔Mimic deals are resolving from pre-crash inventory — after they settle, the binary market is structurally frozen until Bear restarts.

Restart Bear-Yosher. If that's not immediate, incentivize polymarket-ljuba to increase its 'small-shade binary' posting frequency as a bridge supply — currently 2 lifetime deals is insufficient to sustain Mimic.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

SSV momentum signal strong (>5pp gap fast, >6.9pp gap slow). Continuing to build toward 70% SSV target. Current 41.5% SS

intent-1327 resolve / new SSV seller / US open 13:30 UTC / 8.5h fallback

Summary: Prior baseline-staleness concern (flagged at w17, ~428 min ago) is now resolved — agent executed aggressively through w18–w22, building SSV position to 8 tokens on a 10pp+ momentum signal (strongest in 22 wakes per w22 log). Portfolio at w22: $75.15 USDC + $7.44 BTC + $17.68 SSV. Open intent #1318 (25 USDC → 11.31 SSV at $2.21) is a resting order posted at w

Agent is healthy and executing correctly. The 10pp+ SSV momentum signal confirmed across 4 consecutive wakes (w19–w22) makes the prior staleness concern obsolete. The live risk is narrow: intent #1318 at $2.21/SSV has no oracle-price check in the watcher — a post-w22 SSV price move makes the posted rate quietly wrong without triggering a re-wake until expiry at ~08:24 UTC.

All 5 settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus (3), Rebalancer-Lior (1), LP-Maker again (1). Intent #1318 is a resting 25 USDC→11.31 SSV bid waiting for a SSV seller; no SSV sellers currently on book (watcher has not fired on newMatches). Market's fault — not agent's.

Sound and on-mission. w19–w22 show disciplined signal validation (fast + slow lookbacks both above 2pp threshold), momentum confirmation across multiple timeframes, and incremental position building with BTC laggard trimmed at oracle. No re-deriving-in-place churn. The one blind spot is rate-drift: intent is posted at a fixed $2.21/SSV with no re-pricing mechanism until expiry or a fallback wake f

intent #1318 resolved (filled or expired via ownIntentResolved poll every 60s)

new SSV seller appears on book (newMatches against isSSVSeller filter)

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (effectiveDeadline = min(8h fallback, US_OPEN_MS))

MISSING: oracle price drift check — if SSV moves >1–2pp from $2.21 since w22, no early re-wake fires; intent silently mispriced until expiry

Sole active hub, 8 open intents, 3 of 5 momentum deals settled here; could hold SSV inventory

ok — active, 100 deals, reposts frequent

Settled 1 swap with momentum-nikita; DCA-style so may periodically give SSV for USDC

Takes SSV intents (buys SSV), doesn't give SSV — opposite direction to intent #1318

Fades dislocations — if SSV is stretched above trailing avg, swing-nikita may sell/give SSV

None identified. Arb-Hunter SSV gap (flagged in Step-1) is directionally opposite — Arb-Hunter takes SSV (wants SSV) not gives it, so no cross with intent #1318. Watcher is polling for new SSV sellers every 60s; if one appeared, it would have fired.

ownIntentResolved catches fill or expiry without waiting for fallback

newMatches + isSSVSeller filter directly serves the mission (take the next SSV seller)

US market open trigger correct — agent must re-rank with stocks when equities open

effectiveDeadline = min(fallback, US_OPEN_MS) cleanly prevents oversleeping past stocks

60s poll cadence appropriate — not sub-minute spam, actionable on book events

No oracle price drift check: intent #1318 posted at $2.21/SSV 25 min ago with no mechanism to detect SSV moving materially; if SSV is now $2.35, the resting bid

Watcher baseline (seenIntents) is set once at first loop — if watcher restarts mid-session, seenIntents resets and new-seller logic skips one tick

Add an oracle price check each loop iteration: if abs(currentSSVPrice - 2.21) / 2.21 > 0.015, call fireWake('SSV oracle drifted X% from posted rate — re-price intent'). This is the single highest-value change: it converts a 7.5h blind wait

Intent #1318 has no oracle-drift guard

Watcher polls for fill/expiry and new sellers but never compares current SSV oracle price to the posted $2.21 rate. A >1.5% move since w22 (25 min ago) makes the intent silently stale until it expires at ~08:24 UTC or fallback fires at ~08:30 UTC — wasting up to 7.5h of potential re-pricing.

In runWatchLoop body, after fetching belt: fetch SSV oracle price, compute drift from 2.21; if |drift| > 0.015 call fireWake with reason string. One oracle read per 60s loop tick.

seenIntents baseline resets on watcher restart

seenIntents is initialized to null and set on first loop tick. If the process restarts mid-session (as happened at w15), the first tick re-baselines and skips firing on any sellers already on book — a one-tick delay in a fast market.

Persist seenIntents to data/wake/seen-intents.json on each update and reload on startup; fall back to empty set if file missing (fire on all current sellers at first tick, which is acceptable).

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Cheap optionality: tight-to-the-money put with 24h tail, thin premium on a volatile stock (sNVDA). Probability of 0.20 d

All 4 settled deals trace to option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). Writer's nextFallbackMin=1144 confirms ~19h of silence ahead; 0 audited options on book for 201 min. Taker watcher polls every 60s and has not fired — book is genuinely empty.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f…ad63) — detected via 60s poll of open book

Settle window: nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956, ~17:37 UTC June 11 — 5 min before deal #118 expiry)

23h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1141, fires ~16:52 UTC June 11 — ~45 min before settle window)

Sole option supplier; all 4 deals sourced here. Writer is resting (~19h nextFallbackMin=1144) — next posts expected around w27/w28.

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents — could theoretically compete for the same intents, but does not supply options

Fires on new audited-hash option intents — exactly the signal this taker needs; can't fire on generic book activity

Settle-window trigger (MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS) aligns the 23h fallback with deal #118 expiry — agent wakes just before settlement, not randomly

First-poll baseline (seenIntentIds=null guard) prevents false-fires on stale intents already taken

60s cadence appropriate for an option book that posts infrequently

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to deal #118's window. After deals #118/#119 settle, any future deal taken will have a different expiry — the settle-

Hardcoded settle-window timestamp goes stale after new deals

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 targets deal #118's expiry. Once #118/#119 settle and the agent takes a new option (different expiry), this check will never fire (past timestamp) — settle-timing precision is lost for all future deals.

Dynamically derive MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS each poll: read open deals, take min(expiry) - 300s. Store in a variable updated each loop iteration.

Single-supplier dependency on option-writer-matheus

4/4 deals from one counterparty. Writer is in a ~19h rest cycle (nextFallbackMin=1144). If writer crashes or shifts mission, taker has zero supply. No other agent currently posts audited-hash options.

Encourage a second option writer on the same audited template hash, or have option-writer-matheus post smaller batches more frequently so the taker has a steadier flow.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Per mission: no signal justifies action. Engine 1 (options) proven paused by 7 consecutive unfilled writes from wakes 26

120-min fallback to re-check vol/ranking/buyer intents

Summary: Prior: sMSFT rotation at w41 was last trade; 8 monitor-only wakes (w42–w49), −4.3% drawdown, ETH/BTC well below 1% threshold. Now: pattern extended to 19+ consecutive monitor-only wakes (w42–w60+). The 'custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus' deal was a CLOSE of a previously-written option (Engine 1 paused since w38; no new option intents have been posted sin

No vol spike, no ranking rotation, no buyer option intents — all three Engine 1 resume conditions remain false through w60. The custom-settled deal confirms a prior option position closed (not a new open); Engine 2 is on-target with drift <±1.5%. At −4.1% drawdown and 30.5% USDC buffer, the agent is waiting correctly, not broken.

Engine 1 paused since w38 after 7 consecutive unfilled option writes (wakes 26–37) proving zero buyer demand in calm market; Option-Taker-Matheus is the only counterparty for options (4 deals lifetime) and appears to be selectively taking — the recent custom settlement confirms one prior option clos

Sound and disciplined — the agent correctly identified three specific resume conditions (vol ≥1%, ranking rotation, buyer option intents) and checks them each wake without firing. No churn, no re-deriving. The one flag: the 'paused indefinitely' framing for Engine 1 is correct given evidence, but the agent is not tracking whether the custom-settled deal was profitable or loss-making — this matters

120-min fallback (pure timer, checks vol/ranking/buyer-intents at each fire)

MISSING: real-time vol spike detection (currently only polled at 120-min intervals — a sharp ETH/BTC move could be missed for up to 2 hours)

MISSING: real-time ranking rotation detection (same gap — worst-2 stock/crypto shift could go undetected until next fallback)

Only agent that takes custom Option deals; confirmed by the recent custom settlement and 4 lifetime deals

Handles Engine 2 swap settlements (contrarian portfolio rebalances); 1 recent swap settled ↔ LP-Maker

Latency arb on binaries/LP, not an option buyer

None identifiable — option-writer's Engine 1 is paused because no buyers exist, not because it failed to post. Momentum-Nikita's live 25 USDC→11.31 SSV intent is out of mission scope. No ranking rotation or vol event occurred that Engine 2 should have acted on.

120-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient contrarian agent — avg_gap_min is 65, mission thinks in hours not minutes

Zero-LLM watcher; pure timer with no book-sniping risk

Has a fallback (nextFallbackMin=88), is armed, pidAlive=true — structurally healthy

Pure timer cannot detect a sudden vol spike ≥1% or ranking rotation in real-time — signal latency up to 120 minutes

No monitoring for new buyer option intents appearing on-chain between fallbacks — Engine 1 resume condition 3 is polled, not event-driven

Add a lightweight vol-check loop inside the watcher (e.g., poll Pyth every 5 min for ETH/BTC price vs baseline; fire immediately if move ≥1%) — this collapses the signal latency from 120 min to ~5 min for the highest-priority Engine 1 resum

Custom-settled option PnL not reconciled

The 'custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus' deal closed an existing position, but no recent wake log records its outcome (profit/loss, strike vs settlement price). realized_pnl_usd is −$11.95 total — the agent should log each option settlement outcome to calibrate whether current strike/premium leve

In the wake following a custom settlement, fetch and log the deal's settlement price vs strike to attribute P&L to Engine 1 specifically; use this to decide whether to resume Engine 1 at adjusted parameters rather than waiting for all three conditions simultaneously

120-min poll misses fast vol signals for Engine 1 resume

All three Engine 1 resume conditions are only checked at fallback (every ~120 min). A vol spike ≥1% — the most likely near-term trigger given crypto daily ranges — could be missed for up to 2 hours, delaying option posting into the window when implied vol is richest

Add intra-watcher Pyth price poll every 5 min; fire immediately on ≥1% move from baseline (zero LLM, pure price comparison)

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

sAAPL stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75) hit; new binary/option intent; fallback Jun11 20:00 UTC

Only 2 settled deals lifetime ($0.75 PnL) — low deal count reflects thin mispriced inventory in the book (18 repeat wakes out of 26 total with 'no mispriced opportunities'), not agent failure. Agent is now in single-position hold mode awaiting exit, so deal formation is not the active objective.

sAAPL oracle <= $277.34 (stop, -4.6% from current)

sAAPL oracle >= $303.75 (forward, +4.5% from current)

nowTs >= 1781294400 (Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon expiry)

new binary/option intent appears in open book

Primary exit venue for the sAAPL swap — 97 deals, active, quotes swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory

Writes options that polymarket-ljuba can value against Polymarket distribution and take; 17 deals, ok

Posts BinaryBets that are primary mispriced-binary taker targets — but 752 min crashed, removing the main supply of takeable binary inventor

Posts BinaryBets mirroring recent activity — could offer Polymarket-comparable binaries, 16 deals, ok

Price triggers (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75) fire within the 60s poll — immediate exit on price move

Horizon expiry trigger (Jun12 20:00 UTC) is exact blockchain-time check, not wall-clock drift

Fallback Jun11 20:00 UTC gives a 24h pre-expiry assessment window to source maker candidates before pressure

New binary/option intent trigger correctly wakes on taker opportunities matching the mission

Zero-LLM watcher; fallback properly clamped to max(computed, 4h) to avoid negative delays

Reads horizonTs from state.json with hardcoded fallback — resilient to state corruption

The fallback FALLBACK_MS is computed at watcher-arm time using Date.now() — if the watcher process restarts, the computed fallback shifts; should read from stat

Fallback timestamp recomputed on restart, could drift

FALLBACK_MS uses Date.now() at arm time. If watcher restarts before Jun11 20:00 UTC, the fallback shifts forward (up to 4h floor). Low urgency — the 4h floor prevents catastrophic drift — but could delay the pre-expiry assessment wake.

Write fallbackTs = 1781208000 to state.json at arm time; read it back on watcher init, same as horizonTs pattern already in the script.

Bear-yosher dark removes primary mispriced-binary supply

Bear-yosher (752 min crashed) is the main source of BinaryBets this agent values against Polymarket. With it dark, the 'no mispriced opportunities' pattern will continue regardless of how often polymarket-ljuba wakes. 5 bear↔mimic contracts approaching expiry (betExpiry ~1781139624, ~00:58 UTC Jun11

Resurrect bear-yosher or confirm mimic-ljuba posts enough standalone binary supply. Consider a manual nudge wake before the Jun11 00:58 UTC expiry cluster to check takeable bear↔mimic contracts.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: BTC #1294 filled at +4% premium in w45 remains the last deal (15 total, unchanged). The time-triggered wakeup set in w45 has NOT yet fired — watcher is armed (armed=true, pidAlive=true) with nextFallbackMin=786, consistent with ~13 hrs until the 14:00 UTC Jun-11 fallback and ~12.6 hrs until the 13:30 UTC stock-open trigger. Agent is in a deliberate, correctl

No trigger has fired since last summary; deals still at 15, 0 open intents. The watcher is alive and armed for 13:30 UTC US stock open (nextFallbackMin=786 ≈ fallback at 14:00 UTC). This is correct behavior — the agent's own post-w45 diagnosis ('no capital until stocks open') is being honored exactly as planned.

4 USDC lot remains below LP-Maker's ~12 USDC floor for direct BTC fill; BTC was only fillable at +4% to non-LP taker (w45 #1294). Stocks closed = sMSFT trim blocked = no capital source. Market-hours constraint, not agent logic failure.

Sound and solving the right problem. The w39–w45 escalation ladder (oracle → +1.47% → +2.07% → +3% → +4%) was rational; the +4% fill was market-correct given LP's floor. Post-fill capital diagnosis was accurate. The only latent question is whether the lot size will remain at 4 USDC when stocks open — if LP's floor is still 12 USDC, the BTC DCA gap may require the same premium escalation again.

Time trigger: Date.now() >= 2026-06-11T13:30:00Z (US stock open) — fires fireWake for sMSFT trim + BTC DCA

Fallback: 2026-06-11T14:00:00Z (786 min from snapshot) — ensures wake even if loop hiccup

Primary fill counterparty (4 of 7 recent deals); will likely fill sMSFT swap at open; BTC only if lot ≥ 12 USDC

Filled 1 recent swap; will take if spread is attractive vs CEX feed

Filled 1 swap; directional overlap possible on stock opens

ok — has live 25 USDC→11.31 SSV intent 4

Fades dislocations; could cross on sMSFT if it's stretched

None measurable in holding window — no capital deployed by design. Watcher is not polling the book during this interval, so book-based opportunities are unmeasurable until next wake fires.

Fires precisely on 13:30 UTC stock open — the exact event that unlocks the next DCA slice

Hard fallback at 14:00 UTC ensures the agent wakes even if the time-check loop hiccups

Zero LLM in watcher; 60-second poll cadence is appropriate for a time-gated trigger

Label is descriptive: 'sMSFT trim + BTC DCA' makes the intent visible in board logs

No guard if sMSFT oracle is unavailable or stocks open but the trim intent fails to post — agent would burn a full fallback cycle silently

Add a brief post-open validation: if stocks open but sMSFT oracle returns stale/zero, fireWake with an error label rather than proceeding blindly into the trim+DCA logic.

BTC lot size still below LP floor — +4% premium likely to recur

4 USDC lot has been consistently below LP-Maker's ~12 USDC floor across all BTC attempts (w39–w45). Every BTC fill required a non-LP taker at escalating premium (+1.47%→+4%). After sMSFT trim the capital situation may not change.

On next BTC DCA wake, evaluate whether to pool multiple wakes into a single 12+ USDC intent to qualify for LP fills at near-oracle, rather than re-running the premium escalation ladder.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Pre-market window; CLAUDE.md enforces 09:30–16:00 ET only. No fills possible now by design. 2 settled deals both with LP-Maker-Matheus confirm the path clears at open.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) via 30-second poll loop

fallback at 14:00 UTC (open + 30 min) if poll misses

Both settled deals were LP-Maker fills; LP has live sNVDA quote (12 USDC lot) and is confirmed able to fill Stacker's 0.50 USDC slices

Fires exactly at epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) — the only moment Stacker is allowed to act

30-second poll cadence is appropriate: lightweight, zero-LLM, no book dependency

Fallback at open+30 min (14:00 UTC) is a sensible safety net; nextFallbackMin=129 confirms it resolves to ~14:00 UTC from current ~11:51 UTC

No book-watching needed for a pure DCA mission — correctly omitted

fallbackMs when already past open evaluates to 30 min from invocation time, which is correct but implicit — a comment would prevent future confusion

LP lot-size headroom shrinks as sNVDA price rises

LP posts 12 USDC lots; Stacker posts 0.50 USDC. Confirmed fills show LP accepts sub-lot today, but if LP tightens minimums or oracle price moves, 0.50 USDC may become un-fillable. Currently 9.00 USDC / 18 wakes remaining.

Monitor: if next fill at 13:30 fails despite LP live, check whether LP minimum crossed 0.50 USDC threshold and adjust slice size in CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Both signals blocked: SSV by zero inventory, sNVDA by market hours.

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (sNVDA -1.52% buy-dip) or new sNVDA sell intent

Not a failure — agent is executing correctly. Structural note: 5/5 settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; zero diversification of counterparty. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote, no fallback taker exists. Current intent 0x045e (20 USDC) is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor — fillable now.

ownIntentResolved: fires when 0x045e fills or expires

2h fallback (120 min, ~74 min remaining)

All 5 settled deals; 11 open quotes; 20 USDC intent is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor

Could theoretically take sNVDA → USDC side, but lot-size bug (4 USDC intents) means it's currently misfiring; not a reliable fill source

Fires on ownIntentResolved — exact event the agent needs (fill or expiry before re-evaluating)

2h fallback appropriate for a patient DCA agent averaging 153-min gaps

Zero-LLM; intent address hardcoded cleanly; PID written at startup

No early-wake on significant price move — if sNVDA dislocation reverses sharply (e.g. +1% bounce), agent holds the 0x045e intent until expiry rather than cancel

Near budget exhaustion — no slice logic for <full-size remainder

After 56 USDC deployed (18+18+20), ~24.2 USDC remains. If 0x045e fills, ~4.2 USDC left — below the 18-20 USDC slice floor. Agent may stall at next wake with no actionable path despite continued dislocation.

Add minimum-remainder check: if remaining USDC < 10, skip further DCA slices and log 'budget nearly exhausted'; or allow a partial final slice down to 10 USDC floor.

Single counterparty concentration

5/5 settled deals vs LP-Maker-Matheus only. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote (as noted in Step-1: LP missing ETH ask and BTC ask at times), 0x045e would expire unfilled with no alternative taker.

Low priority given LP's current health (93 deals, 11 quotes), but worth noting for resilience — no agent fix needed now, monitor LP sNVDA quote coverage.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

985 eroded to 0.22%; 989 SSV sell drifted to 2.29% vs 1% target (rival at 0.49%); 948/949 expiring in 13-14 min — re-quo

18 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781103961; next poll 60s

Summary: Confirmed crashed since w67/14:36 UTC June 10; now 618 min dark (+63 min since prior at 555 min), armed=false/pidAlive=false unchanged. The 5 deals in settled_deals_detail (4× LP-Maker-Matheus, 1× 0xBd6a) are pre-crash history — the counter is frozen at 38, same as at crash time, confirming zero new settlements post-crash. Bait suite fully expired (987/988/1

Process is dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Deal counter frozen at 38 — the 5 LP-Maker/0xBd6a entries in settled_deals_detail are pre-crash history, not new on-chain finalizations. No activity in 618 min while LP-Maker (primary counterparty, 8 open intents) runs live.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null; last_wake_min_ago=618; tokens_5h_usd=0; open_intents=0; settled_deals stuck at 38 for 63+ min

Last live reasoning (w63–w67) was sound — edge-gate discipline (0.5% cancel floor, 1% post floor), duplicate detection, mandatory rebalance pulls, pre-expiry re-quotes. The agent was solving the right problem. Irrelevant now: reasoning stopped at crash.

scan-edges: new takeable edge ≥1% (excluding honeypot blacklist 779/836/869)

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest open intent expiry

check-my-quotes: quote eroded below cancel floor or undercut (cancelCmds.length > 0)

MISSING: none by design — but watcher process is dead so none of these fire

8 of last 10 settled deals; LP posts 8 open intents continuously — primary fill source for Vulture's swap edges

active, 8 open intents, several near exp

1 settled swap in recent history; likely external LP, unknown cadence

LP-Maker has 8 live intents (sNVDA/sAAPL/ETH lines at 0–1 min remaining per fleet context) that scan-edges would evaluate; fleet SSV gap +100bps flagged in Step-1 focus; Momentum-Nikita 25 USDC→11.31 SSV intent (458 min left) is a potential take. Exact count unmeasurable without running scan-edges, but 618 min of LP-Maker activity with zero Vulture scans makes missed edges highly probable.

Zero-LLM poll loop (scan-edges + check-my-quotes via execSync, 30s cadence) — correct for a latency-sensitive opportunist

Honeypot blacklist pre-seeded (779/836/869) prevents refired wakes on known traps

Pre-expiry trigger (~5 min before soonest expiry) catches bait-suite hygiene without an LLM call

2h hard fallback guards against silent poll failure

Quote-erosion trigger (cancelCmds.length > 0) aligns with the 0.5%/1% floor discipline shown in w62–w67 logs

Process is not running — script quality is moot until restarted

seenEdgeIds is in-memory only; a restart clears it, so honeypot 779/836/869 blacklist is lost on each boot (minor: they're hardcoded in the Set initializer, so

On restart, repost the bait suite (987/988/1001/948/949+4 all expired) before watcher arms — currently the agent will wake to an empty book with no live bait, losing the passive-income layer until the first LLM wake reprices and reposts.

Process crash — agent fully dark 618 min

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. No self-recovery path. Last wake w67/14:36 UTC June 10.

Manual restart of Vulture-Andrew process. Check for OOM/exception in process logs at w67 to prevent recurrence.

Bait suite fully expired unmanaged

987 (sAAPL sell), 988 (sAAPL buy), 1001 (sNVDA), 948 (BTC sell), 949 (ETH sell) + at least 4 more expired during 618-min blackout. open_intents now 0.

On restart, reprice and repost the full bait suite before arming watcher — bait generates passive take-revenue that the agent has been dark on for 10+ hours.

618 min of LP-Maker edges unscanned

LP-Maker-Matheus (primary counterparty, 8/10 recent Vulture deals) has been posting continuously with 8 open intents. SSV +100bps gap and Momentum-Nikita's live SSV intent unexamined. Realized PnL already -$1.61 lifetime; each missed edge deepens the hole.

No fix beyond restart — scan-edges will surface any live ≥1% edges immediately on first post-restart poll.

3 CRASHED, DEALS IN LIMBO

~115 est. (LP-Maker 100 deals + Vulture 38 pre-crash + Arb 11 — some overlap; all 12 open intents are Swap)

~14 est. (Mimic reports 14/16 settled deals ↔ Bear; 3 currently live/unsettled past expiry)

~7 est. (Option-Writer/Taker closings + Bear↔Mimic custom; 2 custom in recent-16 deal window)

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom | Swing-Nikita | Momentum-Nikita | Rebalancer-Lior | 0xBd6a…9863

Active but hub-concentrated — 8 open quotes (16-min lines for sMSFT/sNVDA expiri

FROZEN — Bear crashed 817 min; betExpiry 1781139624 passed 00:58 UTC Jun 11 with

Supply dry — Engine 1 paused since w38 after 7 consecutive unfilled writes; Take

NEVER ACTIVE — both agents uninitialized 17 cycles; zero IndexBasket intents acr

Bear-Yosher hard crash at w41 (11:17 UTC Jun 10, now 817 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false)

BinaryBet surface fully dark. 3 Bear↔Mimic deals past betExpiry 1781139624 stuck 'live' with no settlement path. Mimic-L

Mimic wakes w55–w60: 'edge floor unmet / board empty'; Mimic 14/16 settled deals ↔ Bear; settled_deals_detail shows 3 Bear↔Mimic deals still 'live' post-expiry; Arb counter=11 unchanged for 8 consecut

LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole functioning swap hub (100 deals, 8 open quotes, 5+ dependent takers)

Any LP-Maker disruption halts swap settlement fleet-wide. Swing-Nikita has zero fallback (5/5 deals ↔ LP-Maker exclusive

Swing-Nikita reliableCounterparties=1; Momentum reliableCounterparties=1; Rebalancer: 'BTC only fillable at +4% to non-LP taker'; Arb: 'BTC/ETH clips exceed balance' forcing LP dependency

Stacker-Massimo new crash (was armed/pidAlive=true in prior run; now armed=false/pidAlive=false at 662 min dark per orie

Market-open DCA plan blocked; the Step 2 LLM verdict was written on stale data — summary text says 'still armed, nextFal

Orient: 'Stacker-Massimo was armed/pidAlive=true in prior summary, now false/false at 662 min dark — new crash'; Step 2 watcher field: {armed:false, nextFallbackMin:null, pidAlive:false}; health=stuck

Option-Writer Engine 1 rational pause since w38 (7 consecutive unfilled option writes proved zero buyer demand)

Option-Taker polling an empty book for 201+ min; watcher fires every 60s but has not triggered; option market self-throt

Option-Taker: reliableCounterparties=1, 201 min since last wake; Writer: nextFallbackMin=74 (monitoring, not writing); 'Engine 1 paused since w38 after 7 unfilled option writes proving zero buyer dema

Arb-Hunter direction-check logic blocked a +100bps SSV gap at w193

Momentum-Nikita's live intent #1318 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV, 57 min left) represents a potential cross that did not clear.

Arb w193 log: 'SSV +100bps gap dir ->' (truncated mid-rejection); Momentum intent #1318 live on book; Arb reliableCounterparties=1; 'direction check appears to have blocked it'

Bear-Yosher deal 75 in settlement limbo — betExpiry passed, 3 deals unresolved

betExpiry 1781139624 (00:58 UTC Jun 11) has passed. Bear crashed at w41; the watcher correctly set DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS = (1781139624-300)*1000 but died before that trigger fired. 3 Bear↔Mimic deals (1 custom + 2 BinaryBet) remain 'live' in settled_deals_detail with no settlement recorded. Settlement path is unclear with Bear offline.

settled_deals_detail: 3 Bear↔Mimic deals status='live'; betExpiry=1781139624 confirmed passed; Bear armed=false/pidAlive=false 817 min; 'no settlement recorded' per Step 2

Inspect deal 75 on-chain immediately; manually trigger settlement if betExpiry logic permits; restart bear-yosher with explicit recovery instruction to close 3 open deals with Mimic-Ljuba

3 confirmed crashes — majority of fleet dark

Bear-Yosher: 817 min (w41, Jun 10 11:17 UTC). Vulture-Andrew: 618 min (w67, Jun 10 14:36 UTC), deal counter frozen at 38, bait suite fully expired. Stacker-Massimo: 662 min new crash confirmed by orient (was live prior run). Plus index-maker and index-taker never initialized across 17 consecutive cycles.

All three: armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null; Vulture deal counter=38 unchanged 63+ min; Stacker orient: 'new crash needs diagnosis'; index pair: health=unknown, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens

Priority order: (1) bear-yosher — deal limbo urgent; (2) stacker-massimo — 13:30 UTC Jun 11 market-open epoch approaching, diagnose crash cause before restart; (3) vulture-andrew — bait suite needs refresh after 618-min gap

Step 2 stacker-massimo verdict written on stale data — synthesis override required

Step 2 summary says 'watcher countdown advanced to nextFallbackMin=129, still armed (pidAlive=true)' and badges 'STAGED FOR OPEN'. The watcher JSON ground truth in the same Step 2 record shows armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Orient Step 1 confirms new crash at 662 min. This is a data-consistency failure in the observer pipeline itself.

Step 2 watcher field: {armed:false, nextFallbackMin:null, pidAlive:false}; health=stuck; orient ground truth: 'now false/false at 662 min — new crash needs diagnosis'

Add a post-Step-2 assertion: if summary text claims 'armed' or 'pidAlive=true' but watcher.armed=false AND watcher.pidAlive=false, flag as stale-data verdict and override badge to CRASHED before synthesis

LP-Maker sole swap hub — no fallback, several quotes expiring in 16 min

sMSFT and sNVDA lines (4 intents) expire in 16 min; BTC/ETH/sAAPL/SSV lines expire in 47–49 min. If LP-Maker misses a repost cycle, Swing-Nikita (5/5 LP-dependent), Momentum-Nikita, and Rebalancer-Lior lose their only fill path. No second swap maker exists.

LP-Maker open intents: 0.02 sMSFT and 12 USDC→sMSFT at 16 min; 0.04 sNVDA at 16 min; LP-Maker armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=25 — repost cadence should cover this

Monitor LP-Maker's 16-min expiry lines closely this cycle; longer term, activate a second swap market maker so LP downtime doesn't halt all swap settlement

Arb-Hunter SSV direction-check may be over-filtering — +100bps gap blocked at w193

w193 logged 'SSV +100bps gap dir ->' with the rejection reason truncated. Momentum-Nikita's live 25 USDC→11.79 SSV intent (#1318, 57 min remaining) could represent a valid counterpart. Arb counter=11 unchanged across 8 consecutive wakes (w186–w193) despite LP posting tight SSV lines.

Arb log w193: 'SSV +100bps gap dir ->' (mid-truncation); Momentum intent #1318 on open book; arb counter=11 frozen; SSV appears in LP-Maker open intents (4 USDC→1.906 SSV at 49 min)

Read arb-hunter-tom direction-check logic in current.ts; determine why SSV-sell at +100bps was rejected and whether the Momentum intent #1318 is a valid fill; if the filter is stale or misconfigured, update CLAUDE.md

8 active agents operating correctly within mission constraints

LP-Maker: BTC ask gap resolved at w88, full 12/12 book held through w89–w90, 100 deals. Swing-Nikita: 3-wake DCA sequence (w21/w22/w23), 56 USDC committed, deepening on dislocation. Momentum-Nikita: 8 SSV tokens, strongest signal in 22 wakes per w22. Option-Writer: patient −4.3% drawdown hold (Engine 1 rational pause). Mimic-Ljuba: correctly idle, armed with 51-min fallback. Polymarket-Ljuba: sAAPL hold toward Jun 12 20:00 UTC. Rebalanc

LP-Maker: armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=25; Swing: reliableCounterparties=1, 3 DCA fills confirmed; Momentum: portfolio $75.15 USDC + $7.44 BTC + $17.68 SSV at w22; Mimic: armed=true/nextFallbackMin=51

No action required — maintain monitoring

URGENT: Inspect Bear-Yosher deal 75 on-chain (betExpiry 1781139624 passed); trigger settlement manually if valid; restart bear-yosher with explicit recovery mission to close 3 live Bear↔Mimic deals before attempting new BinaryBet activity

Restart stacker-massimo (662 min new crash, 13:30 UTC Jun 11 epoch approaching — diagnose crash cause first); restart vulture-andrew (618 min, bait suite expired and needs refresh)

Add post-Step-2 watcher ground-truth assertion: flag any verdict where summary claims armed/pidAlive=true but watcher JSON shows both false — prevents stale-data verdicts reaching synthesis (stacker-massimo failure this cycle)

Audit arb-hunter-tom direction-check for SSV path: w193 rejected +100bps gap — determine if the filter logic is stale, misconfigured, or intentional; check whether Momentum-Nikita intent #1318 (25 USDC→11.79 SSV) was a valid untaken match

Provision index-maker and index-taker if IndexBasket market is intended — 17 null cycles = structural dead weight; 0 IndexBasket intents in 1327 total posted means the market has never existed

Worse vs last run — Bear-Yosher's flagged 00:58 UTC Jun 11 expiry has now passed with Bear still crashed (812 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false); Stacker-Massimo is a new crash (was armed/pidAlive=true in prior summary, now false/false at 662 min dark); Arb-Hunter-Tom resumed LP-taking (5 LP↔Arb

3 agents crashed (bear-yosher 812 min, stacker-massimo 662 min new crash, vulture-andrew 613 min) + 2 never initialized — over half the fleet dark

Bear-Yosher deal 75 betExpiry 1781139624 (00:58 UTC Jun 11) has now passed; 3 live Bear↔Mimic deals (1 custom + 2 BinaryBet) in-flight with Bear crashed — settlement path unclear

Stacker-Massimo was armed/pidAlive=true in prior run with countdown to 13:30 UTC epoch; now fully dark at 662 min — new crash needs diagnosis

LP-Maker is sole active hub: 8 open intents, several at 0–1 min remaining (sNVDA/sAAPL/ETH lines), repost cadence under pressure; 100 deals total (+4 since prior)

Arb-Hunter SSV gap (SSV +100bps, w193 direction-check block) may be relevant to Momentum-Nikita's live 25 USDC→11.31 SSV intent (458 min left) — possible missed cross

w193 logged 'SSV +100bps gap dir ->' truncated mid-rejection — does Momentum-Nikita's open 25 USDC→11.31 SSV swap (458 min left, on book now) represent a takeable intent Arb missed, and is the direction-check logic the sole blocker or is th

Deal 75 betExpiry 1781139624 (00:58 UTC Jun 11) has now passed — did it settle or expire worthless? What is the current state of the 3 live Bear↔Mimic deals (1 custom + 2 BinaryBet) and who or what settles them with Bear crashed 812 min?

17th consecutive cycle check: any operator action (wallet provisioned, wake script added, health status change) since last run, or is this still a pure never-initialized null?

17th consecutive null — has index-maker posted any IndexBasket intent anywhere in the funnel (1318 posted total), or is upstream still completely absent?

Several intents showed 0–1 min remaining at snapshot time (sNVDA, sAAPL, ETH lines) — did these expire and repost cleanly in w90+, and is the full 12/12 book maintained or are there gaps now?

nextFallbackMin=9 at snapshot = imminent wake; Bear↔Mimic has 3 live deals (1 custom + 2 BinaryBet) with Bear crashed — can Mimic independently trigger settlement on the expired binary (betExpiry 00:58 UTC passed), or is it stuck waiting fo

Baseline was captured at w17 (~428+ min ago) and the open 25 USDC→11.31 SSV intent has 458 min left — has baseline staleness now made the momentum signal meaningless, and is the posted SSV rate still valid vs current oracle price?

sNVDA call #118 (strike $203.69, expiry ~17:37 UTC Jun 11) and put #119 (strike $201.75, expiry ~18:31 UTC Jun 11) are now ~5–6h from expiry — are they in-the-money per current Pyth, and did the recent Option-Writer↔Option-Taker custom sett

8 consecutive monitor-only wakes (w42–w49), portfolio at −4.3% drawdown — did the recent 'Option-Writer-Matheus ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus [custom] settled' deal in the recent list close an existing position or open a new one, and has ETH/BTC c

650 min silent, nextFallbackMin=1151 (≈Jun11 20:00 UTC) — is the sAAPL position still within stop ($277.34) / forward ($303.75) bands per current Pyth, and has any new BinaryBet or option supply appeared on the book that Polymarket's edge m

Prior summary said agent diagnosed 'no capital until stocks open' and set a time-triggered wakeup — did that trigger fire (deals still at 15, 68 min since last wake), and has it posted a new intent since the w45 BTC fill at +4% premium?

Prior summary showed armed/pidAlive=true with nextFallbackMin=129 countdown to epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC Jun 11) — now shows armed=false/pidAlive=false at 662 min dark. Did the 13:30 UTC wakeup fire and then crash, or did it never fire? I

w23 intent (20 USDC → sNVDA at −2.18% dislocation, ~24 min ago) — has it filled or is it still open? With 3 slices committed (56 USDC) and ~24.2 USDC remaining budget, is the agent about to hit budget ceiling, and is the dislocation still d

Vulture shows 4 recent 'Vulture-Andrew ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus [Swap] settled' and 1 '↔ 0xBd6a [Swap] settled' in the deal list despite being crashed 613 min — are these pre-crash deals just now finalizing on-chain, and does the deal counter (st

Restart bear-yosher immediately — 3 live Bear↔Mimic deals in-flight (including expired betExpiry 00:58 UTC), binary bet surface dead for 812 min, Mimic and Arb-Hunter both starved of binary flow

Diagnose stacker-massimo crash — was armed last cycle with imminent 13:30 UTC epoch trigger; confirm whether wakeup fired before crashing or watcher died before epoch

Restart vulture-andrew — 613 min dark, LP book has live fillable swaps (0xb591 15 USDC→BTC, LP's own lines) that are prime vulture targets going unpoached

Clarify Bear↔Mimic live BinaryBet settlement path — with Bear crashed and betExpiry passed, determine if oracle auto-settles or if manual intervention is required to resolve the 2 live BinaryBet + 1 c

Review arb-hunter-tom direction-check logic — SSV +100bps gap is being blocked by a direction check that may be misconfigured; cross-reference against Momentum-Nikita's live SSV swap to confirm missed