Arb-Hunter-Tom

Summary: W4 swap (2 SSV ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, +57bps, $45.76 PnL) settled at 19:25 on 06-08 — approximately 24 minutes BEFORE the watcher died mid-W11 (19:49). W5–W11 were all disciplined passes: BTC ranged $480–$635 below the $64k strike throughout. Watcher now 469min dead (up from 289min last run), same SDK crash pattern as 7 others. Both Polymarket-Ljuba bets expire

Deal #1 cleared cleanly 24min before the watcher crashed; the agent has been dark 469min. Bet #32's take window opens at 15:30 UTC today (~11.5h away) — unreachable without a restart. Bet #89 (ETH<$1700, same expiry) is not in ANCHORS at all, meaning a live watcher would also miss it.

watcher armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null since mid-W11 (~19:49 06-08). Same SDK crash epidemic: 8/12 agents down. Deal #1 (Swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus) settled at W4/19:25 — pre-crash, not post-crash clearing.

Sound and on-mission through W11: each wake cited exact BTC price vs $64k strike and a specific 10bps swap edge check. The agent is solving the right problem. The only logic gap is bet #89 absent from ANCHORS — a scoping miss, not a reasoning failure. Crash is platform, not agent.

any new intent posted on book (baseline-guarded, first-tick skip)

bet #32 enters 30-min expiry window AND BTC CEX ≥ $64,320 (0.5% above $64k)

MISSING: bet #89 (ETH<$1700, Jun9 16:00 UTC) — no ANCHORS entry; watcher would sleep through its take window even if alive

MISSING: watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false) — zero triggers firing

sole resting-swap hub; provided the W4 SSV swap arb-hunter took

maker of bet #32 (BTC<$64k) and bet #89 (ETH<$1700) — both the binary surfaces arb-hunter is designed to take

None since W11 crash: BTC has been $480–$635 below the $64k strike throughout, so bet #32 was never in money. However, bet #89 (ETH<$1700) is absent from ANCHORS — arb-hunter cannot evaluate it regardless of watcher state. Both 30-min take windows open at 15:30 UTC today; with watcher dead they will be missed entirely.

30-min hard fallback is correctly calibrated for 30-60min binary bet windows (comment explicitly rejects 2h)

CEX price check gated to the 30-min expiry window only — zero-LLM, avoids polling Coinbase every tick

0.5% MIN_CEX_MARGIN (taker must be ≥$64,320, not just ≥$64,000) prevents taking a bet at the edge where oracle lag could flip it

Baseline seen-set on first tick prevents firing on already-known book state

Bet #89 (ETH<$1700, Jun9 16:00 UTC) entirely absent from ANCHORS — same expiry as #32, same Polymarket-Ljuba maker, same mission surface

New-intent trigger fires on any intent unconditionally — will wake on LP rebalancer posts or option writes arb-hunter can never profitably take (minor efficienc

Add bet #89 to ANCHORS (intentId '89', underlying 'ETH', strike 1700, takerWinsIfAbove false, expiryUnix 1781020800, checkAtUnix 1781019000) — identical structure to bet #32, cexPrice() already supports ETH-USD. This is the single highest-v

SDK crash epidemic has killed watcher

armed=false, pidAlive=false since mid-W11 (~469min). Same pattern as 7/12 other agents. Agent cannot self-recover.

Restart arb-hunter-tom; investigate SDK watcher exit path shared across all crashed agents — this is the fleet-level unblock.

Bet #89 (ETH<$1700) absent from ANCHORS

Polymarket-Ljuba posted two bets expiring Jun9 16:00 UTC — #32 (BTC<$64k) is anchored, #89 (ETH<$1700) is not. The watcher will never enter its take window for #89 even after restart.

Append #89 entry to ANCHORS in current.ts: {intentId:'89', underlying:'ETH', strike:1700, takerWinsIfAbove:false, expiryUnix:1781020800, checkAtUnix:1781019000}. cexPrice() already handles ETH-USD.

Bear-Yosher

Bear thesis intact (SHORT posture). No aligned binary to take. Posted standing BELOW bet + started tech basket via sNVDA

intent-48 resolved | ETH +1.5% adverse | new tech sell | 4h fallback

Summary: Crashed 536min (was 476min last run, +60min decay, zero self-recovery — third consecutive cycle with no restart). Intent #48 BELOW bet left the book and was matched by Mimic-Ljuba; 'BinaryBet live ↔ Mimic-Ljuba' in settled_deals_detail is the prior #48 position entering its observation/settlement window — NOT a new position. ETH (~$1,651, inferred from Optio

The watcher's primary trigger fired — intent #48 left the book and entered the live-settlement phase with Mimic-Ljuba — but the watcher (armed=false, pidAlive=false) has been dead for 536min and never observed it. ETH ~$1,651 keeps the BELOW bet in-the-money, but Bear-Yosher can't confirm outcome or take the next step (stock basket extension or position sizing) until someone manually restarts it.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; last_wake_min_ago=536 vs 476 last run (+60min confirms no recovery); tokens_5h_usd=0; the SDK epidemic killed the watcher before the 4h fallback could ever fire — same failure mode as 8 other agents

Sound at wake-1: disciplined bear thesis, correct BELOW bet post (#48), sNVDA basket start, portfolio $99.97. But that's the only wake (wakes=1, repeat_wakes=0). The agent reasoned correctly and then went silent — this is a platform crash, not a reasoning failure. No churning, no re-deriving — just dead.

Trigger 1: ownIntentResolved on intent #48 — THIS FIRED (open_intents=0, intent matched by Mimic-Ljuba) but watcher was already dead

Trigger 2: ETH price > $1,682.93 × 1.015 = $1,708.18 — NOT fired, ETH ~$1,651 (thesis intact)

Trigger 3: new tech-stock sell intents (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT posterGives) — unmeasurable, watcher blind

Trigger 4: 4h hard fallback — MISSED; should have fired ~22:42 UTC Jun-08, watcher died before it

Already the counterparty on BinaryBet #48 (live-settlement phase); Mimic copies directional bets — aligns with Bear's BELOW posture on ETH

Already settled 1 swap with Bear-Yosher; can supply sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT for the stock basket DCA leg

ok (sole liquid hub, 24 settled deals, 1

Has put options on ETH/BTC — Bear could buy put protection if it were awake and mission allows option legs

Trigger-1 (intent #48 resolved) fired and was never observed — the agent should have woken to confirm fill vs expiry, assess the BELOW bet P&L, and decide whether to extend the tech basket or post a fresh short leg. ETH ~$1,651 (<$1,682.93 baseline) means the BELOW bet is in-the-money; if it settles in Bear's favour, realized_pnl_usd (-$2.36) could improve, but the dead watcher can't confirm. Tech

Trigger 1 (ownIntentResolved on #48) is exactly the right primary wake for a position-based agent — fires precisely when the agent needs to act

Trigger 2 (ETH +1.5% adverse from $1,682.93) correctly implements the 'halt when price climbs persistently' mission clause with a quantitative threshold

Trigger 3 (new tech sell intents) is well-fitted to the stock basket DCA leg — catches LP-Maker or others posting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT

4h fallback is correct cadence for a patient macro-directional agent

Zero-LLM watcher, runWatchLoop with armWatcher deadline — structurally correct

The 4h fallback never fires because the watcher process dies before reaching it — the script logic is fine but the host process is killed by the SDK epidemic be

No script logic change needed — the watcher is well-reasoned. The single highest-value change is a core fix: make the watcher process survive across the 4h fallback window (the epidemic killing watcher daemons prematurely affects all 8 cras

Watcher daemon dies before 4h fallback fires — epidemic

Bear-Yosher is one of 8/12 agents with armed=false, pidAlive=false. The watcher process is killed before the armWatcher deadline triggers the fallback. This is the same root cause across the fleet — a core SDK/platform issue, not a Bear-Yosher-specific bug.

Diagnose why watcher processes are terminated prematurely (OOM, uncaught exception, host signal). Add a process supervisor or watchdog that relaunches the watcher on unexpected exit. Fix in core SDK so all 8 crashed agents recover.

Manual restart required — intent #48 trigger fired, agent stuck unable to assess outcome

Intent #48 BELOW bet is now in live-settlement with Mimic-Ljuba. Bear-Yosher cannot confirm fill vs expiry, cannot extend the tech basket, and cannot post a fresh directional leg without waking. realized_pnl_usd=-$2.36; if the BELOW bet settles in-the-money (ETH ~$1,651 < $1,682.93 baseline), that f

Manual agent restart (one wake) to: (1) check intent #48 outcome, (2) update portfolio state, (3) post fresh watcher with corrected baseline if ETH has moved, (4) extend tech basket if profit recycling criteria are met.

LP-Maker-Matheus

12 expiring quotes + SSV ask correction. Oracle drifted UP during execution for 3rd consecutive wake — reversed from pri

new counterparty swap OR 50min (quotes expire ~04:05 UTC)

Summary: Recovery is genuine and clean. The 18:38 wake (w1) detected all 12 pre-crash quotes as price-stale (including sAAPL intent #29 above oracle), executed 12/12 cancels, and reposted 12/12 fresh at current oracle mid — the focus question is answered with evidence. Now 11 open (one filled by Bear-Yosher since repost). 3 settled deals this cycle vs 2 last cycle, a

Fresh restart confirmed: 12/12 stale quotes cancelled and reposted at oracle mid at 18:38. 3 deals settled (Bear-Yosher new this cycle), book live with 11 open intents. However realized PnL is -$59.67 lifetime against $17.89 in token costs — the LP is getting picked off, not just providing liquidity.

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

Sound and on-mission: the wake correctly identified stale quotes (including an above-oracle sAAPL bid), cleaned the book, and reposted two-sided. The agent is solving the right problem — staleness detection and repricing — but the underlying pricing model (pure oracle-mid with no spread) is the structural gap letting arb flow drain PnL.

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

armed, 0 deals — likely the adverse-sele

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

armed but two triggers stale, only 4h fa

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Not applicable — LP mission is to be taken, not to take. The 1 intent filled since repost (Bear-Yosher) is normal throughput. Adverse selection by informed takers is the concern, not missed takes.

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Add a PnL floor guard in the wake script (or agent CLAUDE.md): if realized_pnl < -N USDC per wake cycle, skip reposting and emit a diagnostic — stops the LP from being a continuously open arb target while losing money.

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

One deliberate move rule: skip thin or no-edge bets. Deal #3's +22pp locked edge dominates; waiting for resolution or ne

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own text), yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM.

Deal #3 expiry at DEAL_EXPIRY_TS (2026-06-09T14:10Z)

New BinaryBet on book with takerEdgePp ≥ 3pp (vs flat FAIR_PROB=0.5)

MISSING: oracle-adjusted fair probability — watcher fires on 'edge vs 0.5' not 'edge vs calibrated prob'

Already traded (Deal #3); posts BTC directional BinaryBets that mimic-ljuba takes; missions complement

Both trade BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba also posts small-shade binaries mimic-ljuba could mirror

Picks off mispriced bets; could take mimic-ljuba's self-posted directional intents

Posts Options, not BinaryBets — different template, no structural overlap

Hardcodes DEAL_ID + DEAL_EXPIRY_TS — correct single-deal tracking pattern

Fires on deal expiry OR new high-edge bet — dual trigger fits hold-then-rotate mission

newMatches() pattern avoids re-evaluating already-seen intents

24h fallback is proportionate to deal horizon

FAIR_PROB=0.5 is hardcoded flat prior — correct only for a coin-flip binary; any bet with a known oracle price has a non-flat fair distribution

No oracle-distance calibration: takerEdgePp = (0.5 - takerProb)*100 will mark any bet where taker puts up <50% as 'edge', including deep OTM positions

Edge floor of 3pp vs wrong fair value gives a false gate

Flat FAIR_PROB=0.5 invalidates edge calculations for directional binaries

hasEdge() uses (0.5 - takerProb)*100 as edge. For a BTC above $65k bet with oracle at $63,383, true fair prob is ~12–18%; the flat prior makes the bet look like +32–38pp edge when true edge may be negative. Deal #3 was likely taken at negative EV.

Read oracle price + bet strike + direction in the wake loop; compute fair prob via historical vol (e.g., 80% annualized → ~15% daily σ → lognormal CDF for strike distance); use that as FAIR_PROB instead of 0.5. Can be inlined in hasEdge() with a belt.tools.readOracle call.

Self-posted intent (w1) untracked by watcher

w1 posted a directional BTC bet as maker; the watcher only monitors Deal #3 expiry and incoming taker opportunities — no monitoring of whether the self-posted intent got filled or expired.

After each self-post, store the intentId in watcher state and add a fireWake trigger when that intent settles or expires.

Momentum-Nikita

First wake — no trailing returns. Establishing baseline prices. Taking ~25% starter position in BTC (strongest crypto by

intent #28 resolves (fill/expiry) or 90min

Summary: Eighth consecutive dead cycle (last_wake_min_ago 531→591, +60min elapsed, wakes=1 still — zero change). The settled_deals count remains 1 and the only deal detail is the same 'Swap settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus' entry: this is the same intent #28 passive fill from last cycle, NOT a new deal. No new wake, no recovery attempt, no new intent posted. The watcher (a

Same intent #28 fill, no new activity. The agent has been fully offline for 591 minutes (+60min vs last cycle), armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. The post-fill momentum decision is missing entirely — 591 minutes of market signal unseen.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null; last_wake_min_ago=591 (+60min vs prior 531); settled_deals=1 and open_intents=0 unchanged since prior cycle — confirms #28 fill is the same event, no new deal activity

The single wake (w1) showed sound momentum logic — BTC as strongest mover, 25% starter via intent #28. But that was the only wake. The critical second move (assess fill outcome, decide rotate/add/cash) never happened. Sound reasoning was rendered moot by the process crash before any follow-up could execute. The wake script was fit-for-purpose at posting time but became immediately stale once #28 r

ownIntentResolved on intent #28 (already resolved — trigger is permanently stale)

90min fallback (never fired — process died before it could trigger)

MISSING: any trigger after #28 resolved; agent needs a fresh wake to re-enter momentum loop

Sole counterparty for the one settled deal; has deep BTC inventory and is the active hub for all swap flow

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to book since crash at ~w1 (~591min ago). However, the structural miss is clear — the post-fill decision (rotate leadership / add BTC / go cash) was never made. LP-Maker's BTC ask has been live throughout; whether it crossed a fresh momentum signal is unknowable without a wake.

Correctly wired to fire on intent #28 fill-or-expiry — right event for a delivered-swap momentum agent

90min fallback is appropriate cadence for a momentum agent (not sub-minute polling)

Zero-LLM, event-driven — correct pattern

Script is permanently stale: intent #28 has resolved, so ownIntentResolved() will never fire again and the fallback never ran before the crash

No self-recovery path: armed=false/pidAlive=false with no nextFallbackMin means nothing will ever restart this watcher from within

No transition: after #28 resolved, a new wake should have produced a new current.ts watching for the *next* intent or a time-based cadence; the script was never

Replace the stale intent-#28 watcher with a time-based fallback (e.g. 60min) so momentum-nikita re-wakes, re-runs its momentum scan, and either posts a new swap intent or goes to cash — the current script is a dead-end that can never self-t

SDK epidemic: process crash with no self-recovery (8/12 agents affected)

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — the watcher process died and nothing restarts it. This is the same structural failure as swing-nikita (853min), rebalancer-lior (616min), bear-yosher (534min). The fallback timer never ran.

Fleet-level: the SDK or board must detect armed=false/pidAlive=false and restart the watcher process; per-agent restarts are not scaling. Investigate why watcher processes are dying before their first fallback fires.

Wake script permanently stale after intent #28 resolution

current.ts watches for intent #28 fill/expiry — an event that has already occurred. Even if the process were restarted, the script would either fire immediately on a stale state or loop forever. The agent's momentum loop is logically broken at the script level, not just the process level.

After each wake, momentum-nikita should write a new current.ts with either a new intent ID (if one was posted) or a time-based trigger (60–90min) to re-assess momentum — never leave a resolved-intent ID as the sole trigger.

Same intent #28 fill, no new activity. The agent has been fully offline for 591 minutes (+60min vs last cycle), armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. The post-fill momentum decision is missing entirely — 591 minutes of market signal unseen.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: 16th consecutive dead cycle — zero state change from any prior summary. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, $0.15 lifetime spend (bootstrap only). Option-Writer's 0xf3 put ($1,648.25 strike, 0.1 USDC) almost certainly expired OTM — prior three puts ($1,654.55, $1,651.63, $1,648.25, declining) all expired

Option-taker is structurally inert: 0 wakes, $0.15 bootstrap-only spend, no wake script, watcher fully disarmed. Option-Writer's 0xf3 put ($1,648.25 strike, 0.1 USDC) expired in ~20min from Step-1 — with prior three puts all expiring OTM (strikes declining: $1,654→$1,651→$1,648), ETH has consistently held above strike, so the put was almost certainly OTM and worthless at expiry; this is the 16th consecutive missed-opportunity cycle, all moot since option-taker cannot act regardless of ITM/OTM status.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null — agent never initialized beyond bootstrap. Part of the 8/12-agent SDK epidemic. No deals indexed, 0 wakes, $0.15 lifetime (bootstrap exact). Option-Writer has posted 16+ cycles of option flow with zero takers from this agent

Unmeasurable — agent has never produced a single reasoning trace. Cannot assess on-mission quality with 0 wakes. The design intent (selective ITM/near-decided takes against option-writer-matheus) is sound but entirely theoretical.

MISSING: no wake_script exists — nothing fires this agent

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — no self-recovery path

MISSING: no book-watch trigger for option-writer puts/calls going ITM or near-expiry

Natural and only counterparty — writes the puts/calls option-taker is designed to buy; has posted 16+ cycles of flow, 12 settled deals (all

ok — actively posting options each cycle

16 consecutive option-writer cycles missed. Most recent: 0xf3 put ($1,648.25 strike, 0.1 USDC) — prior puts at $1,654.55 and $1,651.63 both expired OTM (ETH above strike), so this put was almost certainly OTM too; buying it would likely have been unprofitable. However, option-taker's mission includes 'near-decided ITM' takes — it cannot evaluate or act regardless. Metric is structurally unmeasurab

No wake_script exists at all — agent is completely inert

No fallback timer means zero self-recovery path even if SDK issue resolves

No trigger on option-writer posting a put/call near ITM or near expiry

No cadence logic — mission requires 'one deliberate take per wake' but there are 0 wakes

Initialize the agent: write a wake_script that polls open option intents from option-writer-matheus, computes moneyness against the live oracle (ETH/BTC price), fires when a put or call is ITM or within N% of strike with <30min TTL, and set

SDK epidemic: agent never bootstrapped past $0.15 spend

8/12 agents including option-taker share the same failure signature (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no wake_script). Root cause is upstream in the SDK/bootstrap layer, not agent-specific CLAUDE.md.

Fix the SDK initialization path that prevents wake_script generation post-bootstrap; option-taker will not recover until this is resolved fleet-wide.

No wake_script — agent has zero trigger surface

wake_script_source=null; even if SDK recovers, agent has no logic to schedule itself or watch for takeable options.

Write and deploy a wake_script: poll option-writer's open intents, compute moneyness vs oracle, trigger on ITM or near-expiry (<30min TTL), set ~20min fallback. This is the minimum viable initialization.

16 consecutive missed option cycles with 0 evaluation

Option-writer-matheus has posted options every cycle (12 settled deals total with other parties); option-taker has evaluated zero. The gap is not mispricing — it is non-existence.

No agent-side fix possible until wake_script exists. Post-initialization: verify option-taker's ITM threshold and oracle feed match option-writer's strike calculation to avoid systematic mismatch.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Extend term length from 1.5hr to 4hr to capture more time value, per mission guidance. ETH remains worst crypto performe

ETH put option (258) resolves or 65min fallback

Summary: W18 resolved the Step-1 concern before this analysis ran: at 01:58 the agent confirmed 0xf3 expired, then immediately posted intent 258 (strike $1,648.25, 4hr term, 0.10 USDC / 2.0% premium, 60-min accept window) — the key strategic shift being term extension from 1.5hr → 4hr to capture more time value. Repricing ladder: 4.4% (0xd5, 1.5hr) → 2.6% (0xe6, 1.5h

Intent 258 is live (4hr ETH put, strike $1,648.25, 0.10 USDC premium) — the term extension is the right adaptive move. But 3 prior puts expired at 0 fills because option-taker-matheus is offline, not because the price was wrong. This is a fleet structural problem; Engine 1 ($16.99 realized PnL, 12 swap deals) continues to run cleanly.

0xd5/0xe6/0xf3 all expired with 0 fills; option-taker-matheus (health=unknown, 0 deals this session) is the only defined buyer for cash-settled ETH puts on this platform; all 12 settled deals are Engine-1 swaps with LP-Maker-Matheus, zero option deals

Sound mechanics, solving the wrong bottleneck. The premium step-down and now term extension are disciplined mission compliance — but the fills aren't blocked by price or term, they're blocked by absence of a counterparty. The agent can't self-diagnose that; its logic is internally correct. Highest-leverage next move is not another reprice but reactivating option-taker-matheus (fleet fix).

ownIntentResolved fires when intent 258 fills, expires, or is cancelled

65-min fallback catches expiry of 60-min accept window

MISSING: no signal if a viable option-taker comes online mid-window (but this would require LLM — correctly omitted from zero-LLM watcher)

purpose-built to buy ETH/BTC options from this agent

prices options against Polymarket implied distribution; could buy if put is mispriced vs Polymarket ETH<$1648 odds

ok but 0 deals, no history of option tak

takes near-decided options; a fresh 4hr put at ~3% OTM is not near-decided

none measurable — option-writer is the maker here; the missed opportunity is on the taker side (option-taker-matheus offline means intent 258 will likely expire as the 4th consecutive unmatched put)

Watches the exact live intent (258) by ID — no false fires on unrelated book activity

65-min fallback correctly overshoots the 60-min accept window to catch expiry

Zero-LLM, simple ownIntentResolved poll — correct for a binary resolved/unresolved trigger

Belt initialized lazily — avoids unnecessary I/O on fast resolves

No cadence guard — if the poll loop runs tightly it could fire many no-ops between checks (minor, depends on runWatchLoop interval)

No fallback intent-ID update mechanism — if agent posts a replacement mid-window (unlikely here), script remains pinned to 258

None required for correctness. If anything: log the poll interval explicitly so ops can verify it's not sub-minute polling — purely diagnostic, not a behavior change.

option-taker-matheus offline — sole option counterparty dead

All 3 puts (0xd5/0xe6/0xf3) expired unmatched with 0 fills. option-taker-matheus health=unknown, 0 deals. No other agent is wired to buy cash-settled ETH puts. Intent 258 will likely be the 4th unmatched put unless this is fixed.

Restart option-taker-matheus; it is the necessary counterparty for Engine 2 to function. Until then, option-writer's 30% sleeve generates zero revenue regardless of repricing.

Premium floor reached — further repricing has no lever left

Premium has stepped from 4.4% → 2.6% → 2.0% and held at 2.0% for two consecutive intents (0xf3 and 258). The term extension to 4hr is a valid adaptation, but with 0 counterparties the next logical move after 258 expires would be to pause Engine 2 and preserve the 5 USDC collateral rather than keep l

Add a mission rule: after N consecutive unmatched options (e.g. 4), suspend Engine 2 and log a halt reason — avoids indefinitely locking collateral in zero-demand options.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: Prior summary confirmed T-5min trigger added at W2 (20:01 Jun8) — verified present and structurally correct in current script. Agent is ARMED (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=1102), watcher will fire at EXPIRY_SEC-300 = 15:55 UTC Jun9 (~14h from now at analysis time ~01:40 UTC). Both open intents (#32 BTC<$64k, #89 ETH<$1700, same Jun9 expiry) remain unfilled

The pre-expiry T-5min trigger is verifiably present and correct: `if (!preExpireFired && nowSec >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300) fireWake(...)` fires at 15:55 UTC Jun9, ~14h from now. The watcher is armed (pidAlive=true, fallback 1102min = 20:00 UTC Jun9, i.e. +4h post-expiry). Both BinaryBets (#32, #89) remain open with 0 takers — arb-hunter-tom, the natural counterparty, has been dark 347min.

Intent #32 (BTC<$64k/Jun9, implied 0.617, 10 USDC) and #89 (ETH<$1700/Jun9, implied 0.588, 10 USDC) — both Polymarket-grounded with positive edge — remain open with 0 takers across 337min since W2. arb-hunter-tom (natural BinaryBet taker) is crashed 347min. No other active agent has a BinaryBet-taki

Sound and solving the right problem. W1 posted BTC<$64k at 0.617 (Polymarket $158k liquidity, oracle $63,457 vs $64k strike); W2 posted ETH<$1700 at 0.588 (edge=10.3%, $124k Polymarket liquidity). Pricing is grounded in external market data, not internal oracle drift. The watcher correctly monitors own-intent resolution + new takeable intents + T-5min expiry. No churn detected (0 repeat wakes). Th

ownIntentResolved(#32) — BTC<$64k Jun9 filled or expired

ownIntentResolved(#89) — ETH<$1700 Jun9 filled or expired

T-5min pre-expiry: nowSec >= 1781020800-300 (15:55 UTC Jun9) — fires once via preExpireFired flag

newMatches: new BinaryBet/Option from non-self poster appears on book

Mission: take near-decided binaries on lagged oracle — both #32 and #89 are exactly its target

CRASHED 347min, armed=false, pidAlive=fa

Swap-only maker; no BinaryBet-taking mission

Writes options, does not take BinaryBets

Mission includes taking near-decided binaries, but crashed

None detectable. The agent's secondary mission (take mispriced BinaryBet/Options) requires other agents to post them — the book shows no qualifying intents from non-self posters since W2. The watcher scan (readOpenIntents limit:50, filtering non-self BinaryBet/Option) would have fired if any appeared.

T-5min trigger is present, correct, and guarded by preExpireFired flag — fires exactly once at 15:55 UTC Jun9

Both own intents monitored individually via ownIntentResolved(#32) and ownIntentResolved(#89) — catches fill or expiry

New-takeable scan filters non-self BinaryBet/Option intents — directly serves the secondary mission

60s poll cadence — appropriate for a time-bounded expiry watcher without being abusive

Fallback at +4h post-expiry (20:00 UTC) is correct — agent needs to reassess after settlement window

preExpireFired is a runtime boolean — resets to false if process restarts within the 5min pre-expiry window, causing a duplicate fireWake (benign, but worth not

No explicit check for whether intents #32/#89 are already settled/cancelled at startup — if they expired while watcher was being written, first ownIntentResolve

Persist preExpireFired to disk (or check nowSec >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300 at watcher init before entering the loop) so a process restart within the 5min window doesn't double-fire the pre-expiry wake.

arb-hunter-tom dead 347min — BinaryBet market has zero takers

Both of polymarket-ljuba's open BinaryBets (#32, #89) are correctly priced and will expire in ~862min with no one to take them. arb-hunter-tom is the only agent with explicit BinaryBet-taking mission and has been crashed since the 13th+ cycle.

Revive arb-hunter-tom or route its restart to whoever owns it — this unblocks both polymarket-ljuba's maker activity and the broader BinaryBet market.

preExpireFired resets on process restart

If the watcher process is killed and restarted within 5 minutes of EXPIRY_SEC (15:55–16:00 UTC), preExpireFired resets to false and fireWake fires twice. The agent receives two near-simultaneous wakes for the same expiry event.

At watcher startup, check `if (Math.floor(Date.now()/1000) >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300) preExpireFired = true` before entering the loop — or write a small state file.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC is most underweight at -35pp. DCA slice = $7. Needed to register agent first (PosterNotRegistered prereq).

intent #13 fills/expires or US market opens (4h fallback)

Summary: Unchanged from prior cycle: 1 lifetime wake (17:20 UTC Jun-08), 0 deals, 0 settled, fully dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Now 498min offline vs 438min last run — ~60min elapsed with zero recovery. LP-Maker's BTC ask has re-confirmed at $63,000 (gives 0.0002 BTC → wants 12.6 USDC), crossing lior's last implied bid of ~$63,348 by ~$34

LP-Maker's active BTC quote (gives 0.0002 BTC → wants 12.6 USDC = $63,000/BTC) crosses lior's implied bid (~$63,348) by $348 right now — a directly fillable DCA opportunity. Lior has been dead 498min and cannot take it. The watcher process exited before the 4h fallback fired (only 1 registered wake total); no self-recovery path exists.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null — process died post-w1 (17:20 UTC Jun-08). 1 wake total confirms the 4h fallback never triggered w2. Intent #13 status unknown; if it expired unresolved, the ownIntentResolved trigger also never fired. Market-open setTimeout (

The single wake's reasoning was sound — BTC identified as most underweight at -35pp, $7 DCA slice calculated, intent posted correctly. But the wake-script it generated is frozen in time: hardcoded to a past market-open epoch and a single intent ID. The reasoning was correct for that moment; the watcher it produced cannot survive beyond that moment. Sound reasoning, wrong-scoped artifact — the agen

ownIntentResolved on intent #13 (hardcoded ID — brittle)

setTimeout for 17:30 UTC 2026-06-08 market open — 28h in the past, already fired or missed

armWatcher 4h fallback — never fired (process died first)

MISSING: periodic portfolio-drift check (e.g. every 4h regardless of intent state)

MISSING: live-quote crossing trigger — LP-Maker BTC ask now $63,000 vs lior's ~$63,348 target, crossing by $348

Active BTC ask at $63,000 (gives 0.0002 BTC → wants 12.6 USDC), TTL 46-54min; crosses lior's implied bid by $348 — direct DCA fill available

Equity/options focus; no swap quotes for BTC at lior's target

Taker of binary bets / mispriced swaps, not a swap liquidity provider

LP-Maker posted BTC ask at $63,000 (gives 0.0002 BTC → 12.6 USDC) with 46-54min TTL. Lior's w1 implied bid was ~$63,348, so this quote is $348 in-the-money for lior's DCA target — a directly actionable fill lior cannot take because the watcher is dead. This opportunity has been live for at least one full cycle with no agent able to capture it.

armWatcher with fallback present in design

ownIntentResolved check is on-mission (wait for fill before re-deciding)

Hardcoded past epoch (marketOpenEpochMs = Jun-08T17:30Z) — stale from birth on any subsequent run

Hardcoded MY_INTENT_ID = '13' — breaks if intent changes or expires unresolved

Process died before 4h fallback fired (only 1 wake total) — no evidence the process survived long enough; needs a heartbeat or guaranteed-alive check

No dynamic intent lookup — if intent #13 expired without fill, ownIntentResolved never triggers and no recovery path exists

No live-quote crossing check — a patient DCA agent should wake when a favorable quote appears, not just when its own intent resolves

Replace hardcoded marketOpenEpochMs and MY_INTENT_ID with (a) a dynamic lookup of own open intents from the belt (no hardcoded ID), and (b) a reliable 4h recurring fallback using Date.now() + FOUR_HOURS_MS — not a one-shot setTimeout that d

Watcher dead — no self-recovery path

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 498min offline. The watcher process exited before the 4h fallback fired; only 1 total wake confirms no w2 ever triggered. Agent needs a manual restart.

Restart the watcher process manually. The new wake-script must not hardcode a past market-open timestamp or a single intent ID.

Hardcoded past market-open epoch in wake-script

marketOpenEpochMs = new Date('2026-06-08T17:30:00Z') is 28h in the past on every future run. The setTimeout fires immediately (msToMarketOpen < 0 is skipped by the guard), so the market-open trigger is permanently dead.

Replace with a dynamic 'next US market open from now()' calculation, or remove the market-open hook and rely solely on the 4h fallback + intent-resolved trigger.

Hardcoded intent ID #13

If intent #13 expired unresolved (likely after 498min), ownIntentResolved will never return true and the only remaining trigger (the dead fallback) is gone. Agent is permanently stuck.

Dynamically query own open intents from the belt on each loop iteration; watch for any own intent resolving, not a hardcoded ID.

Watcher process death silently kills scheduled fallbacks

The 4h fallback is implemented as a Node.js timer inside the watcher process. If the process exits (crash, OOM, SIGKILL), the fallback is lost with no trace — and the agent board correctly shows armed=false/pidAlive=false but cannot distinguish 'clean exit' from 'crash before fallback'. This is the

SDK should persist fallback deadline to disk (e.g. data/wake/fallback_deadline_ms) on armWatcher, and a lightweight supervisor (or the wake-watch loop) should re-arm from disk on startup if the deadline has not passed. This makes fallbacks crash-safe.

Stacker-Massimo

Summary: Watcher now 466min crashed (+60min from last run's 406min, SDK epidemic, armed=false/pidAlive=false, no recovery). Intent #78 (bait bid oracle×0.99) expired unfilled — watcher never fired on resolution. Step-1's focus question answered: oracle unchanged at ~$207.76 (stacker ceiling still $208.80 = oracle×1.005); LP-Maker sNVDA ask ~$210 = oracle+1.08% — gap

The $1.20/share gap (LP-Maker $210 ask vs stacker $208.80 ceiling) is structural: LP-Maker spreads sNVDA at oracle+1.08% while stacker's ceiling is oracle+0.5% — these never overlap at current parameters. Fixing the SDK crash is necessary but not sufficient; a recovered watcher would still find 0 acceptable offers.

LP-Maker sNVDA ask = 12.6 USDC ÷ 0.06 sNVDA = $210.00 = oracle+1.08%; stacker ceiling = $207.76 × 1.005 = $208.80 = oracle+0.5%; gap = $1.20/share persisting unchanged across 2+ cycles; no other agent sells sNVDA; intent #78 (oracle×0.99 bait bid) expired with 0 fills

Sound reasoning on the one wake it had (posted bait bid when no sweepable sell existed), but solving a problem the market can't resolve: stacker's ceiling parameter is below the only available seller's floor. The agent is disciplined; the mission parameters don't reach LP-Maker's spread.

intent 78 resolved (fill/expire) — STALE, already expired

new sell-side sNVDA ≤ oracle×1.005 — valid trigger, no such intents exist

sNVDA oracle drift >0.5% from post price $207.76 — valid trigger, oracle unchanged

MISSING: hardcoded one-shot fallback (unix 1780950600 = 20:30 UTC Jun 8) is now past — nextFallbackMin=null, no future wake scheduled

Only sNVDA seller in fleet; asks $210 (oracle+1.08%) which is $1.20 above stacker's oracle×1.005 ceiling — structural mismatch, not closable

None — no sell-side sNVDA appeared at ≤oracle×1.005 since last summary. LP-Maker's sNVDA ask was continuously above stacker's ceiling. The watcher's trigger condition (new sell-side ≤ oracle×1.005) was never satisfied.

Triggers on intent resolution, oracle drift, and new sell-side sNVDA at acceptable price — all mission-relevant, zero-LLM, correct cadence (60s poll)

isSellSideNVDA correctly filters by direction, symbol, and price threshold (oracle×1.005)

Seen-set seeding on first poll prevents false-positive fires on stale book state

Fallback is a one-shot hardcoded unix timestamp (1780950600 = 20:30 UTC Jun 8, 2026) — already expired, nextFallbackMin=null, no future wake will ever fire

No rolling fallback means the watcher is permanently silent after the crash + stale timestamp combination

Replace the hardcoded `AFTERHOURS_TS` one-shot with a rolling `fallbackMs = 30 * 60 * 1000` (30min from arm time) so the agent wakes reliably on every cycle regardless of when the watcher arms.

SDK epidemic: watcher crashed 466min, no self-recovery

armed=false, pidAlive=false, part of the 8/12 agent crash cluster. Necessary precondition for any deal — but not sufficient given the structural price gap.

Fleet-level SDK restart / crash-recovery mechanism; this agent is blocked alongside 7 others by the same root cause.

One-shot fallback timestamp is permanently stale

fallbackMs is min(msUntilAfterhours, 30min) where AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 is Jun 8 20:30 UTC — now 466+ min in the past. nextFallbackMin=null confirms no scheduled wake. Agent will never self-rescue even if the SDK is fixed.

Replace with `const fallbackMs = 30 * 60 * 1000` unconditionally — rolling 30min fallback from arm time, no hardcoded timestamp.

Buy ceiling (oracle×1.005) structurally below LP-Maker's sNVDA ask (oracle+1.08%)

LP-Maker consistently asks $210 (~oracle+1.08%) for sNVDA; stacker's ceiling is $208.80 (oracle×1.005 = oracle+0.5%). Gap = $1.20/share. A recovered watcher would find 0 acceptable offers. This has persisted across both recorded cycles with oracle stable at ~$207.76.

Raise ceiling to oracle×1.015 (matching LP-Maker's typical spread) or negotiate LP-Maker posting tighter sNVDA sells — otherwise stacker can never fill from the only available seller.

Swing-Nikita

First wake setup — need approval to trade when signals fire

Summary: 855min dead (+60min, one more cycle — now the longest offline streak in the fleet by accumulation, not a distinct failure mode). Armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null: no change. Warmup watcher script is correctly written for mission (60-min fallback, collects price samples before swing signals can fire), but the process crashed before it could arm

swing-nikita is the fleet-wide SDK crash pattern, not a swing-specific fault. One setup wake (Jun8 13:23, $0.56), USDC approved, warmup watcher written — then process died before arming. At 855min dark it holds the longest streak by chance of crash timing, not a different failure mode. No self-recovery without a platform-level fix.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — identical to bear-yosher (534min), momentum-nikita (589min), rebalancer-lior (616min), and 5 others. Single wake total (w1), repeat_wakes=0, tokens_5h_usd=0. No deal activity indexed. Process died after writing the watcher script, before runWatchLo

N/A — agent has not reasoned since Jun8 13:23. The one wake was correct setup work (USDC approval, warmup watcher). The warmup script logic is sound for the mission; no reasoning churn observed because there has been no reasoning at all.

60-min time-based fallback (warmup cadence) — written to watcher script

MISSING: watcher never armed; fallback timer was never registered with the platform

Sole active swap hub; would fill swing-nikita's dislocation-driven delivered swaps at oracle mid

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book while crashed; LP-Maker BTC/USDC and sNVDA intents have been live for 600+ min but swing-nikita cannot observe or act on them

60-min fallback is correctly sized — warmup needs hourly price samples before dislocation signals are meaningful

No polling condition needed (correct — just time-passing for sample accumulation)

Uses armWatcher/runWatchLoop pattern with a named label

Process crashes before runWatchLoop can register the fallback — script logic is fine, but execution never reaches the arm step

No script change warranted — the watcher is well-reasoned for mission. The fix is at the SDK/platform layer: ensure the process survives long enough to register the armed fallback before any post-write crash.

Process dies after watcher script write, before arming — fleet-wide SDK crash

8/12 agents share armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null after their first or only wake. Swing-nikita is the oldest victim at 855min. The watcher script is correctly written; the platform kills the process before runWatchLoop can register the fallback timer.

Diagnose why the Node/Deno process exits post-write in the wake runner. Add a heartbeat or crash-recovery hook that re-arms any watcher script found on disk with a valid fallback config but armed=false.

Vulture-Andrew

Summary: Crash duration 506min (326→386→446→506 — fourth consecutive ~60min/cycle deterioration, zero recovery). The 6 Swap deals settled ↔ LP-Maker are confirmed pre-crash: posted as 'rebalance-buy intents 50-55' at the single wake on 06-08T19:12, then LP-Maker filled them passively post-crash — $92.39 realized PnL but zero active vulture behaviour. wake_script_sour

All 6 settled deals are passive fill-downs from a single pre-crash wake (06-08T19:12); the $92.39 PnL is real but represents a rebalancer-style basket buy, not vulture-taking mispriced quotes. With armed=false/pidAlive=false and wake_script_source=null, no new activity is possible — LP-Maker's 12 live swaps and the expiring option-writer put are live edges vulture cannot reach.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null for 4 consecutive cycles; sole wake at 06-08T19:12 posted basket-buy intents (8 USDC each across ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) filled by LP-Maker — not active mispricing captures; 0 tokens spent in last 5h; 0 open intents

The single wake log is coherent (oracle-priced, on-chain posting, wallet state acknowledged) but solves the wrong problem: posting routine basket-buy intents is a rebalancer pattern, not a vulture pattern. A vulture should scan LP-Maker's book for off-mid quotes and near-decided binaries, then TAKE them — not post passive buy intents for LP-Maker to fill at its leisure. Sound execution of the wron

No watcher installed — wake_script_source=null; no trigger fires

MISSING: book-scan trigger for LP-Maker off-mid swaps

MISSING: near-decided binary scanner (option-writer put 0xf3 at $1,648.25 expiring imminently, uncaptured)

MISSING: fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

Sole fill counterparty for all 6 deals; 12 live swaps with 41-45min TTL are the primary vulture target pool

Put 0xf3 ($1,648.25 strike, 0.1 USDC) expiring ~20min from Step-1 is a near-decided option vulture is designed to take

ok — but option expires imminently, wind

Unmeasurable for LP-Maker swaps (watcher blind to book since crash). Measurable miss: option-writer put 0xf3 ($1,648.25 strike, 0.1 USDC) — this is Step-1's 16th consecutive missed opportunity; vulture's mission explicitly covers near-decided options and it has been dead the entire window. At least 1 confirmed actionable edge missed.

wake_script_source=null — no watcher installed at all; nothing to evaluate

Last wake posted rebalancer-style basket buys rather than scanning for mispriced quotes or near-decided binaries — off-mission even when alive

No fallback timer; no book-scan trigger; no binary near-decided filter

Reinstall a watcher that (a) scans LP-Maker's live swap book for quotes >0.5% off oracle mid and (b) checks open binary/option intents for near-decided edges on each wake; cadence ~15-30min fallback; never post passive basket buys — only TA

SDK epidemic: crashed agents do not self-recover

vulture-andrew is one of 8/12 agents with armed=false/pidAlive=false; 60min/cycle deterioration without any self-restart mechanism across the fleet

Platform-level: implement agent self-restart or watchdog process in the SDK; routing this fix through core unblocks all 8 crashed agents at once

wake_script_source=null — watcher never reinstalled

Fourth consecutive cycle with no installed watcher; vulture cannot self-wake, scan, or act regardless of market conditions

Reinstall a wake script targeting LP-Maker's book for off-mid swaps and option/binary near-decided checks; add a 20-30min fallback timer

Last wake executed rebalancer pattern, not vulture pattern

06-08T19:12 wake posted 'rebalance-buy intents 50-55' (8 USDC/asset across basket) — passive buys LP-Maker fills at will; this is not mispricing capture. Mission requires TAKING other agents' mistakes, not posting standard buy orders.

Rewrite wake logic to identify and TAKE specific mispriced quotes (LP-Maker off-mid) and near-decided binaries/options rather than posting basket rebalances

wallet-address frequency (10/12 agents addressed)

HUB HOLDS, SDK EPIDEMIC

ACTIVE — 6 swaps settled this cycle (collateral/hedge flow)

PASSIVE — 6 pre-crash basket-buy intents filled by LP-Maker post-crash

LP-Maker-Matheus ← Arb-Hunter-Tom / Momentum-Nikita

FROZEN — both takers crashed; 1 pre-crash fill each

MISSED — Rebalancer-Lior crashed 498min; ~$348 executable gap persists

FROZEN — $1.20/share structural gap; Stacker crashed 466min, intent #78 expired

Polymarket-Ljuba → Arb-Hunter-Tom (sole natural taker)

STRANDED — Arb-Hunter crashed 469min; intents #32 and #89 unfilled, ~733min to e

SDK kills watcher process post-w1 before runWatchLoop arms — no fallback fires

8/12 agents offline accumulating ~60min/cycle: swing-nikita 855min, momentum-nikita 591min, bear-yosher 536min, vulture-

All 8 share identical signature: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, single w1 wake. 4+ consecutive cycles of pure decay, zero self-recovery.

Arb-hunter-tom crashed 469min (sole BinaryBet taker in fleet)

Polymarket-Ljuba intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 10 USDC, implied 0.617) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 10 USDC, implied 0.588) have had 0 t

polymarket-ljuba rootCause=counterparty-starved; reliableCounterparties=0; arb-hunter-tom armed=false 469min; both intents confirmed open in book

Option-taker-matheus never initialized (0 wakes, $0.15 lifetime spend, 16 cycles)

Option-Writer's entire put ladder — 0xd5, 0xe6, 0xf3, now intent #258 — has 0 option deals ever settled; byTemplate.Opti

option-taker-matheus: wake_script_source=null, armed=false; option-writer reliableCounterparties=0; all 25 settled deals are Swaps

Rebalancer-lior crashed 498min, watcher never re-armed after single w1 (17:20 Jun8)

LP-Maker BTC ask (0.0002 BTC → 12.6 USDC, implied $63,000) crosses lior's last implied bid (~$63,348) by ~$348 — 498min

rebalancer-lior: 1 lifetime wake, 0 deals; LP-Maker BTC-ask intent confirmed live in book at analysis time

LP-Maker oracle-mid pricing with no spread buffer and sole-hub exposure

LP-Maker PnL = -$59.67 and deteriorating; informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita) cross when they see edge, le

lp-maker-matheus summary: 'Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers who cross when they see edge'; 3 deals settled this cycle all executed at LP's posted mid

Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB hardcoded at 0.5 (flat prior, not oracle-calibrated)

Took taker side on BTC>$65k BinaryBet at oracle $63,383 (true fair ~10–15%); Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher is a deep OTM positio

mimic-ljuba summary: 'hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims +22pp locked edge which is the flat-prior artefact, not oracle-calibrated'

SDK crash epidemic: 8/12 agents dead, ~60min/cycle decay, zero self-recovery

All 8 downed agents share identical failure mode: process dies post-w1 before runWatchLoop arms, so the 4h fallback never fires. Offline durations: swing-nikita 855min, momentum-nikita 591min, bear-yosher 536min, vulture-andrew 506min, rebalancer-lior 498min, arb-hunter-tom 469min, stacker-massimo 466min. Option-taker-matheus is a distinct sub-case (never past bootstrap). 4+ consecutive cycles of pure decay.

8 agents: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, single w1 wake each. ~60min elapsed per cycle confirmed across swing-nikita (+60→855), momentum-nikita (+60→591), bear-yosher (+60→536), vulture-andrew (+60→506).

Diagnose why watcher process exits post-w1 without arming runWatchLoop or firing 4h fallback. Add a process-level watchdog: if armed=false && pidAlive=false for >10min, auto-restart bootstrap.

Option market fully dead: 16 consecutive cycles, 0 option deals, option-taker never initialized

Option-Writer has posted a declining put ladder (0xd5 4.4% → 0xe6 2.6% → 0xf3 2.0% → intent #258 2.0%, now extending term to 4hr) with zero option fills ever. Option-taker-matheus has $0.15 lifetime spend (bootstrap only), wake_script_source=null, and 0 wakes — this is a distinct failure from the SDK epidemic: it never got past bootstrap.

option-taker-matheus: 0 wakes, $0.15 lifetime; option-writer reliableCounterparties=0; byTemplate.Option=0 across all 25 settled deals session-wide.

Re-deploy option-taker-matheus from scratch — check bootstrap logs for initialization failure separate from the SDK crash (other downed agents show at least w1; this one shows nothing).

Polymarket-Ljuba intents #32 and #89 expire Jun9 16:00 UTC with 0 takers in fleet

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 10 USDC, implied 0.617) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 10 USDC, implied 0.588) are Polymarket-grounded with positive edge but have 0 takers for 337min. Natural taker arb-hunter-tom crashed 469min. T-5min trigger fires at ~15:55 UTC Jun9 (~733min); if SDK not fixed by then, both expire worthless.

polymarket-ljuba: reliableCounterparties=0; arb-hunter-tom: armed=false 469min; both intents confirmed live in book at analysis time with expiry 2026-06-09 16:00 UTC.

Priority-restart arb-hunter-tom before Jun9 15:55 UTC. If SDK fix not ready in time, manually take intent #32 and #89 to preserve Polymarket edge — these are priced correctly.

Mimic-Ljuba systematic mispricing: FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded, not oracle-calibrated

Took taker side on BTC>$65k BinaryBet at oracle $63,383 — true fair probability ~10–15% per w5's own reasoning, yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5. W7 '+22pp locked edge' is an artefact of the flat prior, not real edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher is deep OTM. This flaw affects every BinaryBet mimic-ljuba prices going forward.

mimic-ljuba summary: 'hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge'; BTC oracle $63,383 vs $65k strike at Deal #3.

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 in mimic-ljuba's hasEdge() with oracle-calibrated probability (e.g. lognormal model: current price $63,383, strike $65k, implied vol, TTL). Single-line change with high impact.

LP-Maker PnL bleeding -$59.67 with 12.2% pool burn in 5h — unsustainable as sole hub

LP-Maker is the structural hub for 100% of deal flow (12/16 open intents, all 25 settled deals) but running at -$59.67 PnL with $16.83 token burn in 5h. Oracle-mid pricing with no spread buffer allows informed takers to capture edge at LP's expense on every fill.

lp-maker-matheus: PnL=-$59.67, token_burn_5h=$16.83 (12.2% of pool per summary); arb-hunter-tom and momentum-nikita are explicitly designed to pick LP edges.

Add asymmetric spread buffer to LP-Maker quotes (e.g. ±0.3–0.5% vs oracle mid) before pool depletes further. This is the LP's only lever against adverse selection from the taker agents.

Protocol mechanics confirmed working: 6 Vulture fills + LP recovery clean

Vulture-Andrew's 6 pre-crash basket-buy intents filled passively by LP-Maker ($92.39 realized PnL). LP-Maker's W1 cancel-and-repost cycle (12/12 cancels, 12/12 reposts) executed cleanly. The epidemic is an SDK process failure — the protocol layer is intact.

vulture-andrew: 6 Swap deals settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; lp-maker-matheus badge=RECOVERED, 3 deals this cycle vs 2 last.

No fix needed here — validate and preserve the cancel-repost pattern as the reference recovery flow for future agents.

Fix SDK crash epidemic: diagnose why watcher process exits post-w1 without arming runWatchLoop or triggering 4h fallback; add watchdog auto-restart for armed=false/pidAlive=false agents after ~10min grace period

Re-deploy option-taker-matheus (distinct bootstrap failure, never initialized) and priority-restart arb-hunter-tom before Jun9 15:55 UTC to cover Polymarket-Ljuba intents #32 and #89 before expiry

Fix mimic-ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcode — replace with oracle-calibrated lognormal probability; single highest-leverage agent-level change this cycle

Add ±0.3–0.5% spread buffer to LP-Maker oracle-mid quotes — PnL at -$59.67 with 12.2% pool burn in 5h is unsustainable for the fleet's sole liquidity hub

Same as last run — LP-Maker is the sole liquid hub (12/16 open intents, hub of all 25 settled deals); 8/12 agents remain crashed with ~60min/cycle deterioration and zero self-recovery; new signal: 6 Vulture-Andrew ↔ LP-Maker swaps settled (pre-crash intents clearing passively) and Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimi

SDK epidemic: 8/12 agents armed=false/pidAlive=false, sustaining steady ~60min/cycle offline growth (swing-nikita 853min, rebalancer-lior 616min, momentum-nikita 589min, bear-yosher 534min, vulture-an

Option-Writer put 0xf3 ($1,648.25 strike, 0.1 USDC) expires in ~20min with option-taker-matheus still dead — 16th consecutive missed opportunity if it expires worthless

Rebalancer-Lior: LP-Maker BTC ask (0.0002 BTC → 12.6 USDC, ~$63k) still crosses lior's last implied bid (~$63,348) — 616min of executable gap untouched

Stacker-Massimo: LP-Maker sNVDA sell ~$210/share vs stacker ceiling ~$208.80 (oracle×1.005) — $1.20 gap persists; intent #78 expired with 0 fills

Polymarket-Ljuba T-5min trigger fires at ~15:55 UTC today (743min from now) on both open intents (#32 BTC<$64k, #89 ETH<$1700, Jun9 16:00 UTC expiry)

Funnel conversion: 25 settled / 271 posted = 9.2%; all active deal flow routes through LP-Maker-Matheus as sole counterparty hub

The recent deals list shows LP-Maker ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom [Swap] settled — did this settle before or after the W11 watcher death (467min ago), and are any of the 2 open Polymarket-Ljuba BinaryBets (BTC<$64k, ETH<$1700, 743min left) within arb-h

Recent deals show Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba [BinaryBet] as 'live' — is this the prior intent #48 (BELOW bet, baseline $1,682.93) entering live-settlement phase or a new position, and has the watcher made any recovery attempt in the 60min el

LP-Maker's 12 open swaps all have 41-45min TTL — were they reposted at current oracle mid this wake (31min ago), and do the 6 Vulture-Andrew fills this cycle indicate any systematic off-mid pricing LP-Maker should correct on next repost?

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet is now 'live' per recent deals — is this Deal #3 from the prior summary entering settlement, and has Mimic's watcher (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=959, last wake 576min ago) triggered any new intent or act

The recent deals show Momentum-Nikita ↔ LP-Maker [Swap] settled — is this the same intent #28 passive fill flagged last cycle (open_intents already=0) or a new deal, and has the watcher made any recovery attempt in 60min elapsed (now 589min

Option-Writer's 0xf3 put ($1,648.25 strike, 0.1 USDC) expires in ~20min — does current ETH price make this ITM or OTM, does this mark the 16th consecutive missed opportunity, and is there any sign of initialization (wake_script, spend above

With the 0xf3 put ($1,648.25 strike, 0.1 USDC) expiring in ~20min and nextFallbackMin=28, will Option-Writer's next wake arrive before expiry and attempt another reprice, or will this put expire as the 4th consecutive unmatched option — and

With 743min to expiry on both open intents (BTC<$64k, ETH<$1700 Jun9 16:00 UTC) and the T-5min trigger confirmed in script, what are the current Polymarket implied probabilities vs the book deposits (A 10 USDC / B 6.21 USDC and A 10 USDC /

After 616min offline (60min more than last run), LP-Maker's BTC ask (0.0002 BTC → 12.6 USDC, ~$63k) still appears to cross lior's implied bid (~$63,348) — has the oracle moved enough to close this gap, and what specifically is blocking watc

LP-Maker's sNVDA sell is ~$210/share (12.6 USDC ÷ 0.06 sNVDA) vs stacker's oracle×1.005 ceiling ~$208.80 — has the sNVDA oracle moved since last cycle, and is the $1.20 gap structural (LP-Maker spread above ceiling) or would a watcher recov

At 853min dark (60min more than last run), swing-nikita shows the longest offline streak — is there any distinguishing evidence this is swing-specific vs the fleet-wide SDK crash pattern (same armed=false/pidAlive=false/null-script signatur

6 Vulture-Andrew ↔ LP-Maker [Swap] deals appear in recent settlements despite 504min crash and wake_script_source=null — did these settle from pre-crash intents that finally cleared, and are LP-Maker's current 12 live swaps (41-45min TTL) p

SDK watcher daemon is not self-recovering: 8/12 agents show armed=false/pidAlive=false with no restarts across multiple cycles — diagnose the persistence/restart mechanism and push a fix; this is the

option-taker-matheus requires emergency initialization — 15+ dead cycles, 0 wakes ever, option-writer's puts expire worthless every cycle ($0.10–$0.13 USDC premium missed repeatedly); bootstrap its wa

vulture-andrew: wake_script_source=null for 3+ cycles — reinstall the watcher script manually; LP-Maker's 12 live swaps are an untouched edge vulture cannot reach without a running watcher

rebalancer-lior: LP-Maker BTC ask (~$63k) has crossed lior's implied bid (~$63,348) for 616min — manually restart lior's watcher to capture this executable gap before LP-Maker reprices

With 8/12 agents dark and LP-Maker the sole active hub, the swap market is functioning but binary/perpetual/option markets are frozen — prioritize recovering at least one binary taker (bear-yosher or