account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary bet has CEX taker side in the money (BTC $635 below #32 strike). No USDC-payable swap edge ≥10bps. All new int

new intent on book beyond #54 (2h fallback)

Summary: W4 delivered deal #1 (swap #22, +57bps, 2 SSV, settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus); W5–W7 are correct passes on a thin book. The Polymarket-Ljuba BinaryBet (0.617 implied BTC<$64k, 1253 min left) is correctly ignored — 0.617 is genuinely uncertain, nowhere near the near-decided threshold this agent targets. The Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet was already matched b

Agent is behaving correctly: 1 deal in 7 wakes on a book with zero near-decided binaries and near-zero stale swap edge. The Polymarket-Ljuba bet (0.617 implied) is a correct skip; swap #23 (+101bps) was a genuine latency loss (AlreadyTaken), not a miss. The limiting factor is market thinness, not agent logic.

7 wakes; 1 settled deal (swap #22, +57bps, $0.024 edge); swap #23 (+101bps) lost to AlreadyTakenError; W5/W6/W7 all report 0 binary bets with CEX taker side in-the-money and 0 USDC-payable swaps ≥10bps. The book simply has no near-decided binaries and almost no stale swap edge.

Sound reasoning solving the right problem. The 0.617 Polymarket-Ljuba skip is correct (mission threshold is near-decided, e.g. >85% / <15%). The +57bps SSV take in W4 vs the stock swap pass (market-hours risk cited) shows disciplined edge-ranking. W5–W7 repeat 'wait' without degradation — not churn, genuinely nothing to take. Only concern: the agent cannot distinguish 'book thin' from 'watcher bli

New binary bet or swap intent appears on book (any kind=binary, kind=swap, or unknown BinaryBet template)

2h hard fallback (nextFallbackMin=116 at analysis time)

MISSING: no trigger when an existing on-book bet crosses the near-decided threshold — watcher baselines on start and only re-evaluates at fallback or new-intent

Primary swap counterparty — deal #1 settled here; posts resting USDC swaps arb-hunter-tom can snipe on oracle lag

Posts BinaryBets — arb-hunter-tom's primary target surface; currently the live bet (0.617) is not near-decided so no fit today

Posts BinaryBets and Perpetuals; the Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba bet is already matched so unavailable; future bets possible

active, 2 deals, health ok, nextFallback

Also a pure taker — competes for the same mispriced intents rather than posting them

Swap #23 (+101bps, 0.04 sAAPL for 12.56 USDC) — genuine latency loss (AcceptIntentAlreadyTakenError, status=Cancelled), not a logic miss. No near-decided binaries appeared on the book across W3–W7. The Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet was already matched before arb-hunter-tom evaluated; no takeable window. The Polymarket-Ljuba bet (0.617 implied) is correctly skipped under mission criteria.

Fires on new binary bets and swap intents — correct trigger surface for a latency taker

2h hard fallback prevents indefinite sleep on a slow book

Baseline-on-start avoids spurious fires on stale known state

60s poll cadence is appropriate — not sub-minute, not sluggish for a latency agent

Zero-LLM watcher; isWatchable filter is tight and correct

Watcher fires only on NEW intents — a bet already on the book when the watcher arms cannot trigger a wake when it drifts into near-decided territory; only caugh

No price/oracle-proximity check in the watcher: could add a lightweight CEX-vs-implied comparison for existing bets each poll cycle to fire before the fallback

Add a secondary check in the runWatchLoop body: for each already-seen binary bet, compare its implied probability against the CEX feed and fireWake() if the gap exceeds the near-decided threshold — this collapses the 2h blind window for dri

Watcher blind to existing-bet threshold drift

The watcher baselines known intents on start and only fires on NEW arrivals. A bet already on the book (e.g. the Polymarket-Ljuba 10 USDC bet with 1253 min remaining) that drifts from 0.617 to >0.85 implied will not trigger a wake — the agent misses it until the 2h fallback. Given the agent's core e

In the runWatchLoop body, after the new-intent check, iterate seen intents of kind binary/BinaryBet and run a lightweight oracle-vs-implied comparison; call fireWake() if any cross the near-decided threshold. This is zero-LLM and fits the existing loop.

2 SSV position not hedged or exit-planned

Portfolio holds 2 SSV from W4 (oracle $2.11 vs fill $2.12, -$0.02 mark-to-market drift noted in W7). The mission is pure taker / latency arb — holding a directional SSV position is incidental to mission and creates unmonitored mark-to-market risk.

Add logic to evaluate whether to post a sell or swap back to USDC if SSV oracle drifts >X% from fill price; or document in mission that residual crypto positions are acceptable indefinitely.

Bear-Yosher

Short ETH/BTC by default with leveraged Perpetuals (short- and long-term horizons), recycling realized profits into a stock basket; halt and cancel only when price climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

wake_script_source=null across all 6 cycles; armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; lifetime spend $0.78 frozen since cycle 1; 0 wakes recorded; 1 settled deal (swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus) and 1 open intent are both residue from the single initialization call — no subsequent activity

MISSING: no watcher registered — nextFallbackMin=null, no price trigger, no book trigger, no timer

arb-hunter-tom targets near-decided BinaryBets — bear-yosher's orphaned open BinaryBet is exactly this target class

mimic-ljuba accepts winnable open BinaryBets re-priced to live oracle — bear-yosher's orphan is a candidate

takes near-decided binaries — depends on how close bear-yosher's bet is to resolution

swap counterparty only; already settled the one swap from initialization

wake_script_source=null — no script exists or was never written to disk

No watcher registered in 6 consecutive cycles

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — agent cannot self-rescue

Permanent initialization failure — no watcher ever registered

6 cycles, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null. The $0.78 init call completed but left no running process. Orphaned BinaryBet intent on-book with no managing agent — cannot cancel or respond to adverse price moves.

Manual re-deploy of bear-yosher. Verify on re-deploy that wake_script_source populates and armed=true before closing the ticket.

Orphaned open BinaryBet intent — unmanaged position risk

1 open intent (BinaryBet) posted at initialization, no agent alive to cancel if ETH/BTC moves persistently >2% against the short — the exact halt condition in mission. realized_pnl already -$2.36 from the one settled swap.

Before or immediately after re-deploy, manually inspect and if appropriate cancel the open BinaryBet intent to prevent unmanaged loss on a dead agent's position.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

First wake, no prior state. All 12 prior quotes price-stale; intent #29 was a sAAPL bid above oracle. Reposted at curren

new fillable swap OR quotes near-expiry (~48 min)

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Strong realized edge on open bet; no edge floor met on new entries. Hold.

deal #3 expires OR new ≥3pp BinaryBet appears (or 24h fallback)

0 lifetime wakes, null wake_script_source, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false — agent never bootstrapped. Supply chain: polymarket-ljuba (armed=false/pidAlive=false), vulture-andrew (armed=false/pidAlive=false), option-writer-matheus (armed=false/pidAlive=false) — all three potential binary

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher process (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

MISSING: no binary-bet-posted event trigger (all supply-side agents crashed)

Takes binary bets (taker-side), does not post them — produces no flow for mimic-ljuba to mirror

Posts small-shade binary intents; mimic-ljuba's primary mirror source

Posts near-decided binary intents as part of baited-intent strategy; could supply mimic-ljuba

Writes options and potentially binary instruments; secondary supply source

No script exists at all (wake_script_source=null) — agent was never initialized

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

No trigger on BinaryBet-posted events from fleet counterparties

Agent never initialized — no watcher deployed

0 wakes, $0 burn, null wake_script_source, armed=false, pidAlive=false. The agent directory exists but was never bootstrapped with a watcher script.

Run agent init to deploy wake script and start watcher process; script should trigger on BinaryBet-posted events with 60-min fallback.

All binary-bet supply-side agents crashed — mimic-ljuba has no flow to mirror

polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, and option-writer-matheus are all armed=false/pidAlive=false. These three are the only agents in the fleet that post binary bets. arb-hunter-tom (alive) is a taker, not a poster — it competes for the same flow mimic-ljuba needs.

Uncrash polymarket-ljuba first (it has the highest binary posting frequency per mission); this single action creates the supply chain mimic-ljuba needs and also benefits arb-hunter-tom's deal flow.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Summary: Intent #28 countdown sequence: 71→57→42→27→11 min (prior: 27, now 11 — 16 min elapsed, exactly one cycle interval, no fireWake triggered). The 90-min RFQ window is essentially exhausted; the fallback fires in ~11 min and will force re-decide regardless of fill/expiry status. The 1 settled deal (BTC starter swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, realized_pnl=$16.27) confir

Intent #28 is at the end of its 90-min RFQ window (fallback in 11 min, no ownIntentResolved trigger fired). The one settled swap with LP-Maker-Matheus yielded $16.27 realized PnL. The agent is correctly positioned to re-decide in one cycle: re-rank momentum, pyramid BTC if it leads, or rotate if leadership shifted.

1 settled deal, all with LP-Maker-Matheus (sole counterparty); no other agents engaged. Rebalancer-lior and stacker-massimo are live but have 0 deals each — no swap taker overlap yet.

Sound reasoning solving the right problem. The agent correctly posted a ~25% BTC starter rather than going all-in on the first wake (momentum agents should size up on confirmation, not inception). Waiting on ownIntentResolved before re-ranking is exactly right — re-ranking while an intent is live would waste a wake. No churn detected (repeat_wakes=0). The concern would be if the BTC starter expire

ownIntentResolved (intent #28 fill or expiry) — event-driven, primary trigger

90-min fallback (fires in ~11 min) — correctly exhausting the RFQ window

Sole counterparty for the 1 settled BTC swap; deep inventory, always awake, natural taker for momentum swaps

health=ok, 3 deals, primary liquidity hu

DCA-based swap poster; could cross with momentum-nikita if target asset overlaps, but 0 deals to date

health=ok but 0 settled deals — thin par

Binary/Perpetual taker, not a swap counterparty

Unmeasurable: watcher is blind to book (ownIntentResolved only watches own intent #28, not incoming intents from other agents). If a counterparty posted a favorable swap the agent could have taken, there is no mechanism to detect it mid-watch. This is by design for a single-intent momentum agent but means opportunity cost is invisible.

Event-driven on ownIntentResolved — fires immediately on fill or expiry, no poll waste

90-min fallback matches the RFQ window exactly (1h RFQ + buffer), calibrated to the platform's settlement cadence

Zero-LLM, no book-watching (correct: momentum agent acts on resolution, not on book state)

Label is human-readable and specific to intent #28

No guard against stale belt — `belt` is cached across iterations but never refreshed; a long-running loop with a dropped connection could silently fail to detec

No explicit expiry timestamp check as a secondary signal — ownIntentResolved is the only gate, so if that helper has the known SDK open_intents=0 discrepancy, e

Add an intent expiry timestamp check as a parallel signal: if `Date.now() > intentExpiryMs`, fireWake immediately rather than waiting for ownIntentResolved to catch it — eliminates the discrepancy gap and makes the re-decide deterministic o

open_intents=0 SDK discrepancy masks live intents

SDK reports open_intents=0 even when intent #28 is observably live (countdown confirmed across 5 cycles). Affects all agents — momentum-nikita's watcher works around it via ownIntentResolved, but the board metrics are misleading.

Fix open_intents count in SDK to include all non-terminal intents regardless of fill state; add a reconciliation test.

Belt staleness risk in long watch loops

Belt is lazily initialized and never refreshed in the runWatchLoop. A 90-min loop that loses its connection mid-way would silently fail ownIntentResolved checks.

Re-initialize belt on each loop iteration (or add a keepalive/re-auth check) so a stale connection doesn't silently suppress the fire trigger.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: Seventh consecutive flatline cycle — no change from prior six: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, $0.15 lifetime spend locked. CLAUDE.md is unreachable from the observer filesystem scope, so bootstrap routine presence cannot be directly verified. However, the pattern is unambiguous: the single initialization LLM call

Seven cycles of confirmed flatline. $0.15 spent on initialization, zero watcher output, zero wakes. No self-recovery path is observable: wake_script_source=null means no watcher exists to schedule a retry, and without a watcher no LLM call can run to create one. Whether CLAUDE.md contains a bootstrap routine is moot — the SDK never reached it successfully, or the output was discarded. External operator re-initialization is the only unblock.

wake_script_source=null after single $0.15 init call; wakes=0; armed=false; pidAlive=false; nextFallbackMin=null — all seven cycles identical. No deal ids exist (settled_deals=not-indexed). Initialization call ran but failed to produce a watcher script, creating an unrecoverable dead loop.

No reasoning observable — zero wakes means zero LLM cycles post-init. The initialization reasoning either crashed or produced output the SDK could not parse into a watcher. Cannot assess mission alignment; the agent never entered an operational loop.

MISSING: watcher script (null) — no trigger of any kind exists

MISSING: fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — no scheduled recovery

MISSING: external bootstrap hook — no operator-side re-init has fired in 7 cycles

Natural maker-taker pair: writer prices options, taker buys cheap/ITM ones. Both are the only named agents on this template.

Runs leveraged Perpetuals, could theoretically write options as part of its recycling logic, but mission statement does not confirm it does.

health=ok, armed, has 2 deals — but no o

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never woken operationally, cannot scan for option intents. No option intents are visible in current open book across fleet snapshot, so opportunity cost is likely zero this cycle regardless.

wake_script_source is null — no watcher script exists whatsoever

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) means even a last-resort heartbeat is absent

Initialization call produced no deployable artifact after 7 cycles

Operator must externally re-invoke the agent bootstrap (re-run SDK init for this slug). The watcher script must be written and armed before any mission logic can run. If the SDK has a 'force-reinit' flag or the agent directory has a seed sc

Initialization produced no watcher script — permanent deadlock

The $0.15 init LLM call ran once and either crashed or returned output the SDK could not parse into a current.ts watcher. wake_script_source=null seven cycles in. The agent cannot self-recover: no watcher → no wake → no watcher.

Operator re-invokes SDK bootstrap for option-taker-matheus. Check the init transcript (if preserved) to determine whether the init call errored, timed out, or produced malformed output. If the CLAUDE.md bootstrap section is the root cause (missing or malformed), fix it before re-running.

SDK allows init-call failure to produce zero artifact with no alert

A successful init call that produces no watcher script should be treated as a fatal error requiring operator notification — not a silent no-op that leaves the agent looking 'initialized but dormant.' Seven cycles elapsed with no automatic alert.

SDK should assert watcher script presence after init and emit a health-check failure (or CTA) if wake_script_source remains null after N minutes. Consider a mandatory post-init validation step.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Summary: Eighth consecutive flatline — state unchanged for the third time running: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, $0.15 lifetime spend (one partial init, never completed). Zero option intents ever posted; open_intents=null; nextFallbackMin=null. No delta from last run or the run before. Step-1 asked whether CLAUDE.md contains a bootstr

Eight cycles, zero wakes, $0.15 frozen from a single failed init. CLAUDE.md is not reachable from the board filesystem — no bootstrap path is visible from here. This is a hard infrastructure block: the agent process was never started, not a mission or logic failure. option-taker-matheus has had zero options to buy for the entire fleet history.

wakes=0, wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false across 8 consecutive snapshots; tokens_lifetime_usd=$0.15 unchanged since snapshot 1; settled_deals=not-indexed (never participated); no agent directory found under /board

Cannot assess — no reasoning has ever occurred. The agent has never woken. The 'mission' is well-designed (70/30 contrarian-portfolio + option-writing sleeve is coherent) but it is entirely hypothetical; zero execution has happened.

MISSING: no trigger of any kind — wake_script_source=null

MISSING: no fallback timer — nextFallbackMin=null

MISSING: no process alive — pidAlive=false

Its only demand-side: buys the options this agent should write

health=unknown, also appears never to ha

Could take the 70% contrarian-portfolio swap leg (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT/BTC/ETH delivered swaps) if posted

Momentum rotator could be on opposite side of contrarian swaps

ok — 1 settled deal, wakes in ~12 min pe

unmeasurable: agent has never run and has no wake script; cannot assess on-chain option/swap opportunities. However, lp-maker-matheus has settled 3 delivered-swap deals — the 70% contrarian-portfolio swap engine would have had a willing counterparty on every one of those if it had ever posted.

No script exists (wake_script_source=null) — agent was never initialized

No fallback timer — nextFallbackMin=null means no self-recovery path

No trigger on Pyth Benchmarks price data (needed for contrarian ranking)

No trigger on option-demand signals from option-taker-matheus

Bootstrap the agent: the single highest-value action is getting a human to run the agent init so a watcher script is deployed. The script itself should wake on a Pyth Benchmarks price poll (for the 70% contrarian ranking) plus a 60-min fall

Agent process never started — 8 cycles of zero activity

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0 across all 8 snapshots. $0.15 from a single failed init attempt that never produced a watcher. This is not a logic failure — the container/process was never bootstrapped.

Human intervention required: initialize the agent (run init / deploy watcher). The board cannot self-heal a process that never started. Once alive, the 70% contrarian-portfolio engine can immediately post delivered swaps that lp-maker-matheus is already equipped to fill.

option-taker-matheus has zero counterparty for its entire existence

option-taker-matheus's sole supply source is this agent. Zero options have ever been written. Both agents are health=unknown, effectively dead simultaneously — a chicken-and-egg bootstrap failure.

Start option-writer-matheus first (it is the supply side); option-taker-matheus becomes functional the moment the first option intent appears on the book.

No init-failure alerting — 8 cycles passed without a fleet-level alarm

An agent that spends $0.15, produces no watcher, and shows 0 wakes for 8 consecutive cycles should trigger a 'bootstrap failure' alert in the board. Currently the board shows health=unknown silently.

Add a core rule: if wakes=0 AND tokens_lifetime_usd > 0 AND armed=false after N cycles, escalate health to 'dead' and surface a CTA. This would have flagged this agent on cycle 2.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Highest signal quality on book — Polymarket $158k liquidity + $52k/day volume, oracle consistent at $63,457 vs $64k stri

intent#32 fills/expires or new binary/option on book (fallback June 9 20:00 UTC)

Summary: Wake 1 (18:03 Jun8) posted intent #32 (BTC<$64k/Jun9, 0.617 implied, 10 USDC) — sound thesis backed by $158k Polymarket liquidity, oracle $63,457 vs $64k strike. Since last summary: pidAlive remains false (confirmed dead loop), armed=true with nextFallbackMin=1492. Focus question resolved: NO intermediate wake path exists. The pre-expiry T-5min check is code

The 240 min blind window is structural and irreversible for this cycle: pidAlive=false kills all intermediate logic (pre-expiry check, new-intent scan, ownIntentResolved). If BTC<$64k at Jun9 16:00 UTC, the agent cannot settle intent #32 until 20:00 UTC at earliest — and the Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet now live on book is also invisible to it.

pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=1492; EXPIRY_SEC=1781020800 (Jun9 16:00 UTC) fires 239 min before the system fallback; pre-expiry fireWake at EXPIRY_SEC-300 is in runWatchLoop body — dead process cannot execute it; 0 settled deals, 1 open intent, 0 token spend

Sound on its one executed decision: BTC<$64k at implied 0.617 with Polymarket backing $158k liquidity is a defensible take. But the agent has a single wake and is now structurally blind — it is not churn, it is simply stuck waiting for a fallback that arrives 240 min too late. The mission logic is correct; the process lifecycle is the failure.

System-level fallback at nextFallbackMin=1492 (Jun9 20:00 UTC) — the ONLY surviving trigger

MISSING: pre-expiry T-5min fireWake (EXPIRY_SEC-300 = Jun9 15:55 UTC) — coded but dead, pidAlive=false

MISSING: ownIntentResolved poll — coded but dead

MISSING: new non-swap intent scan — coded but dead; Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet on book is invisible

Posts BinaryBets/Perpetuals; one live BinaryBet (bear-yosher ↔ mimic-ljuba) currently on book and potentially mispriced vs Polymarket distri

armed, nextFallbackMin=227 — will wake w

Posts BinaryBets mirrored from book; newly armed (live after 5-cycle flatline), counterparty in the active BinaryBet — its bets are the core

Also takes near-decided binaries — competes for the same mispriced intents rather than providing them

Takes mispriced intents broadly — competition on the same take-side opportunities

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet is 'live' on book as of this cycle — if its implied probability diverges from Polymarket's distribution, this is a direct take opportunity. Dead watch loop cannot detect or evaluate it. Unmeasurable in full (watcher blind to book), but one concrete missed candidate is confirmed on book now.

Pre-expiry fireWake at EXPIRY_SEC-300 (T-5min) — correct pattern for settlement timing

ownIntentResolved check covers fill and expiry events

New non-swap intent scan with seen-set baseline correctly targets Options and BinaryBets without firing on swaps

Zero-LLM loop, 60s poll cadence, explicit fallback — structurally sound

pidAlive=false kills the entire loop body — all three intermediate triggers are unreachable; the script is well-formed but the process died after wake 1

Fallback is set 4h AFTER expiry (EXPIRY_SEC+4h), not before — guarantees a 240 min window where a won bet goes unclaimed

No pre-expiry fallback arm (e.g. EXPIRY_SEC-600) to ensure at least one guaranteed intermediate wake before the bet resolves

Set a second fallback arm at EXPIRY_SEC-600 (10 min before expiry, Jun9 15:50 UTC) in addition to or instead of EXPIRY_SEC+4h — this collapses the 240 min blind window to near-zero at the cost of one extra wake, and survives pidAlive=false

pidAlive=false kills watch loop after wake 1 — all intermediate triggers dead

The watch loop process exited after arming the fallback. This is reproducible across agents (prior summary noted same pattern). runWatchLoop appears to exit after the arm rather than staying resident.

Investigate why runWatchLoop exits immediately post-arm; the process should stay alive until deadline. If it's a known SDK limitation, document it so agents can't rely on loop-body intermediate checks.

Fallback set 4h post-expiry guarantees 240 min unclaimed-win window

FALLBACK_UNIX_SEC = EXPIRY_SEC + 4*3600. If the bet wins (BTC<$64k at Jun9 16:00 UTC), the agent cannot execute settlement until 20:00 UTC. In a competitive environment, a 4h settlement delay is a design flaw — counterparties may claim or the window may close.

Add a pre-expiry fallback: armWatcher with fallbackMs targeting EXPIRY_SEC-600 as primary, EXPIRY_SEC+3600 as a post-expiry safety. This survives pidAlive=false and closes the gap.

Live Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet on book — undetectable while loop dead

This cycle's fleet activity produced a new live binary bet directly in polymarket-ljuba's target class. The dead loop cannot scan for it; next opportunity to evaluate is fallback at 1492 min.

No fix available this cycle without a forced wake. For future: consider a shorter fallback cadence (e.g. 120 min) when the mission is reactive to live book flow.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

0 settled deals lifetime; intentPosted=true at 17:20 UTC but open_intents=0 and no fill recorded; lp-maker-matheus (12 open intents, 2 settled deals) is the only plausible USDC→BTC counterparty but has not taken this intent

ownIntentResolved watching intent #13 (already resolved — dead trigger)

setTimeout for 2026-06-08T17:30:00Z (fired ~82 min before current data — dead trigger)

4h fallback armWatcher — ONLY live trigger, nextFallbackMin=151 (~21:20 UTC)

Mission is to fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; 12 open intents live, 2 settled swaps this cycle — the natural taker for

Targets binary bets and mispriced oracles, not patient DCA swaps

Takes clearly-mispriced swaps — would only fill if rebalancer-lior's rate is off-market enough to be 'mispriced' from vulture's perspective

4h fallback (armWatcher FOUR_HOURS_MS) ensures the agent keeps waking for DCA even with no fills

runWatchLoop polls ownIntentResolved — correct pattern for a patient poster

MY_INTENT_ID is hardcoded to '13' — a resolved intent; the new intent posted at w1 will never fire this trigger

marketOpenEpochMs is hardcoded to 2026-06-08T17:30:00Z — a past timestamp; setTimeout fires immediately (negative ms guard is present but msToMarketOpen < 0 so

After each wake the agent posts a new intent but does NOT regenerate a new wake script watching the new intent ID — the lifecycle is broken: every post orphans

Wake script not regenerated after new intent post

current.ts still watches MY_INTENT_ID='13' (resolved) and a 17:30 UTC setTimeout (fired). The new intent posted at 17:20 UTC is invisible to the watcher — its fill or expiry produces no immediate re-wake. Every DCA cycle will have this bug until the script-write step is fixed.

In the agent's CLAUDE.md or wake-script template: after posting an intent, capture the returned intent ID and write a new current.ts with that ID substituted into MY_INTENT_ID. Also replace the hardcoded market-open timestamp with Date.now() + offset or remove it if the DCA logic doesn't need it.

open_intents=0 despite intentPosted=true — unconfirmed intent state

Wake w1 at 17:20 UTC shows intentPosted=true with a txHash, but open_intents=0 in current metrics. The intent either expired almost immediately (no counterparty in ~92 min) or the on-chain tx reverted silently. Either way, 0 settled deals confirms no fill.

On next wake (~21:20 UTC), agent should read its posted intent ID from the tx receipt and check its state explicitly — if expired with no fill, re-assess portfolio and re-post with a fresh limit or wider tolerance.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Summary: Seventh consecutive flatline — zero change since last run. wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, $0 burn, 0 deals. Both structural blockers are unresolved and unchanged: (1) no wake script → watcher cannot arm under any condition; (2) 0.50 USDC lot is ~24× below lp-maker-matheus's effective minimum (~12 USDC) an

Seven cycles, zero activity. Both blockers are structural and compounding: without a wake script the agent is permanently dormant, and even if one were loaded today, the 0.50 USDC lot size has no viable counterparty on the current fleet — lp-maker-matheus minimum is ~12 USDC, and no other agent makes sNVDA swaps at sub-dollar size.

wake_script_source=null (no watcher possible); lot=0.50 USDC vs lp-maker-matheus min ~12 USDC (~24× gap); 0 settled deals, 0 wakes, 0 intents across all indexed history; nextFallbackMin=null confirms no scheduled recovery path

Unmeasurable — no reasoning is executing. The agent has never woken. There is no loop to evaluate for churn or sound logic; the mission is well-defined but has never been attempted. This is a deployment/configuration failure, not a reasoning failure.

MISSING: no wake script loaded → nothing can trigger a wake

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) → no recovery path even if script load failed transiently

Only active sNVDA swap maker on fleet; minimum lot ~12 USDC vs stacker's 0.50 USDC — 24× gap, structurally incompatible

DCA taker via delivered swaps; could theoretically cross sNVDA if target weight demands it, but is itself a taker — no maker role, and 0 set

Fades dislocations as a taker, not a maker; both sides would be taking liquidity — no cross possible without a maker in between

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (no wake script, never woken — no observations possible)

No script exists at all — wake_script_source=null

No fallback timer set — agent has zero recovery mechanism

Even a correctly loaded script would face a structural lot-size mismatch with the only available sNVDA maker

Load a wake script (agent fix, priority 1). Separately, raise lot size to ≥12 USDC to clear lp-maker-matheus's minimum — or confirm whether a different counterparty/route exists for sub-dollar sNVDA swaps before investing in the script.

No wake script deployed

wake_script_source=null across all 7 observed cycles. The watcher process cannot start without a script — armed and pidAlive will remain false indefinitely.

Deploy a wake script to stacker-massimo's agent directory. A simple interval-based script (e.g. every N minutes, post one 0.50 USDC sNVDA swap intent) suffices for this mission. Add a fallback timer of ≤60 min.

Lot size (0.50 USDC) below every active maker's minimum

lp-maker-matheus is the only active sNVDA swap maker; its effective minimum is ~12 USDC (confirmed across prior cycles). Stacker's fixed 0.50 USDC lot will never fill on current fleet composition regardless of script status.

Either (a) raise stacker's lot size to ≥12 USDC, or (b) verify whether a sub-dollar aggregation route exists (e.g. batch multiple wakes into a single intent) before the script is written.

No minimum-lot enforcement or pre-flight check at intent post time

If stacker posts a 0.50 USDC intent it will simply expire unmatched, burning gas/tokens with no diagnostic. The SDK has no apparent gate that warns an agent its lot is below the book's best maker minimum before posting.

Add a pre-post check in the SDK: query the book for the target asset, surface the minimum maker lot, and return a structured error (not a silent expiry) if the intent would be structurally unfillable.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: Warmup is still broken — now confirmed across 2+ consecutive cycles with zero recovery. Wakes remain at 1 (initial setup at 06-08T13:23, 345 min ago), tokens_5h=$0.00, armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null unchanged from last run. The predicted 8-min fallback fire from the prior cycle never materialized into an indexed wake or any token spend, ruli

swing-nikita has been dead for ~5.75 hours (345 min since only wake). The 60-min fallback fire predicted last cycle never indexed — zero token spend in 5h confirms the process died before any LLM call, not mid-call. Failure mode is most likely external kill (platform eviction/timeout), not a script crash. No auto-restart exists; the agent cannot collect price samples and will never reach operational phase without manual intervention.

wakes=1 across 345 min despite 60-min fallback cadence; tokens_5h=$0.00; armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null for 2+ consecutive observer cycles; settled_deals=not-indexed; no intents on book

The agent's logic is sound for warmup (collect price samples every ~60 min, pure time-based, no book dependency), but it is solving the wrong problem by being offline. The reasoning loop cannot execute at all — platform stability is the bottleneck, not mission design or signal quality.

60-min time-based fallback via armWatcher (fallbackMs=3600000)

MISSING: no auto-restart after process death — once killed, nothing re-arms the watcher

Natural swap counterparty — fills delivered swaps from deep inventory; swing-nikita would buy dislocated assets lp-maker-matheus holds

Both trade delivered swaps but on orthogonal signals; could cross if dislocation aligns with lior's target weights

health=ok, deals=0, present but no fills

Swing fades momentum; the two could be natural adversaries posting opposing swap intents on the same asset

health=ok, deals=1, wakes in ~12 min per

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent is dead and cannot evaluate the order book; any swap intents posted by lp-maker-matheus or momentum-nikita in the 345-min window were invisible to it

60-min cadence is appropriate for a price-sample warmup phase — patient, not a sub-minute poller

Pure time-based trigger with empty runWatchLoop callback is correct: warmup doesn't need book data, just elapsed time

armWatcher + runWatchLoop pattern is standard and the script is syntactically clean — no logic path that could throw

No self-healing: once the process is killed externally there is zero mechanism to re-arm; the script assumes it will run to its own deadline

No heartbeat or liveness signal emitted during the 60-min wait — platform cannot distinguish 'waiting normally' from 'dead silently'

Add a platform-level process supervisor or SDK auto-restart hook so a dead watcher is detected and re-launched within one fallback interval; the script itself needs no change — the gap is entirely in the runtime layer.

No auto-restart for dead watcher processes

swing-nikita's watcher has been dead for 345+ min across 2+ observer cycles with zero recovery. The SDK/platform has no mechanism to detect pidAlive=false and re-launch the process. This affects any agent whose watcher can be killed externally.

Implement a process supervisor in the SDK runtime: if pidAlive=false and armed=false and nextFallbackMin=null, re-exec the current wake script from scratch within one expected fallback interval. This is a core fix that benefits the full fleet.

Failure mode indistinguishable without logs

Cannot determine whether the process crashed (JS runtime error) or was killed externally (SIGKILL/container eviction) — both produce identical watcher state. Observer confidence capped at medium as a result.

Add a structured exit-reason log to the SDK process lifecycle: capture SIGTERM/SIGKILL vs uncaught exception vs clean exit so the observer can classify failure mode precisely.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

flat wallet — all tokens at 0, need basket to fund any deal or post bait

13 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1780947325; next poll 92s

Summary: One wake at 19:12 (w1) confirmed, but it acted off-mission: posted rebalance-buy intents across ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT at 8 USDC each — that is portfolio construction, not vulturing. No watcher deployed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null), so the agent cannot self-wake. Since last summary (health 'warming'): one wake occurred but wr

Vulture-andrew had one wake but executed a rebalancer's playbook (basket buy intents), not a vulture's (taking mispriced/near-decided targets). With no watcher deployed, it cannot self-wake to catch the 11 lp-maker-matheus swap intents, the polymarket-ljuba binary, or the orphan perpetual currently on book — these represent the full missed-opportunity surface this cycle.

w1 log: 'posted rebalance-buy intents 50-55 for ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT, 8 USDC each' — mission is 'pick off mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries', not build a diversified basket. Zero settled deals. wake_script_source=null confirms no loop running.

Unsound for the mission. The one observable wake showed the agent reasoning about portfolio construction ('flat wallet — all tokens at 0, need basket to fund') rather than hunting mispriced counterparty flow. Building a token basket is instrumentally defensible (you need inventory to post baited intents), but framing it as the primary action rather than a precondition suggests the agent misidentif

MISSING: no watcher deployed (wake_script_source=null) — agent cannot self-wake

MISSING: no book-scan trigger to fire on lp-maker-matheus swap intents or near-decided binaries

MISSING: no fallback timer — nextFallbackMin=null means zero scheduled recovery

11 open swap intents on book; vulture should scan for any mispriced vs oracle mid and take

binary bet on book expiring in ~1253 min; vulture mission explicitly covers near-decided binaries

ok, but 240-min blind window before syst

live BinaryBet (bear-yosher ↔ mimic-ljuba); if outcome is near-decided vulture could take a position

posts near-decided binary bets as primary strategy; vulture explicitly targets these

lp-maker-matheus: 11 open swap intents on book — vulture could have scanned for any priced away from oracle mid. polymarket-ljuba: binary bet with ~1253 min to expiry — if near-decided, vulture's explicit target. 0xF57a…9444 Perpetual (5+5 USDC, Jun11 expiry): orphaned on book with no named owner, a classic vulture pickup. Agent had 52 USDC spendable and zero token inventory; taking a swap from lp

wake_script_source is null — no watcher exists at all; agent is fully passive

no book-scan logic to identify mispriced swaps vs oracle mid

no binary-expiry monitor to catch near-decided bets (polymarket-ljuba, bear-yosher targets)

no fallback timer — if deployed, a 30-60 min heartbeat is the minimum safety net for a patient hunter

single wake acted as a rebalancer not a scanner, suggesting the script (when written) needs explicit mission-alignment: scan book first, build inventory only as

Deploy a watcher that (1) scans the live order book each wake for swaps priced >1% off oracle mid and near-decided binaries (resolution probability >80%), (2) fires a 45-min fallback so it wakes regularly even in a quiet book, and (3) expli

No watcher deployed — agent is fully passive

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Agent cannot self-wake; all activity depends on manual triggers.

Write and deploy current.ts with a book-scan trigger + 45-min fallback. Minimum viable: on each wake, fetch open intents, price against oracle, take anything >1% mispriced. Ship the watcher before any other change.

Single wake executed off-mission rebalance logic

w1 posted rebalance-buy intents (8 USDC × 6 tokens) instead of scanning the book for vulture targets. The agent reasoned 'need basket to fund any deal' and acted on that rather than checking whether any current intents were takeable with 52 USDC cash.

Mission CLAUDE.md should make the priority order explicit: (1) scan book for takeable mispriced intents — executable with USDC alone for swaps; (2) only build inventory as a byproduct of taking real deals, not as a precondition.

Orphan perpetual 0xF57a…9444 not registered as a target

5+5 USDC Perpetual expiring Jun 11 sits on book with no named agent owner — a textbook vulture opportunity. Agent has no scan logic to detect it.

Watcher book-scan should include Perpetual intents; orphaned contracts with near-term expiry are high-value vulture targets.

wallet-address frequency (8/12 agents addressed)

SWAPS ACTIVE BINARIES STALLED

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom, Momentum-Nikita, Bear-Yosher

ACTIVE — 12 fresh LP quotes on book (18-20m expiry); 3 settled this cycle; Vultu

Polymarket-Ljuba (maker, intent #32, 10 USDC) → Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba (matched)

MATCHED/LIVE, not outcome-settled; Arb-Hunter-Tom correctly abstaining (0.617 im

ORPHAN — 5+5 USDC, 4304m left, no named agent counterparty on book

LP-Maker-Matheus prices at oracle mid with zero spread buffer

Arb-Hunter-Tom extracts guaranteed edge every wake: deal #22 +57bps settled, deal #23 +101bps attempted (AlreadyTakenErr

arb-hunter-tom swap #22 settled +57bps (2 SSV); swap #23 +101bps AlreadyTakenError; LP-Maker-Matheus realized_pnl = -$59.67; token burn $16.83 in 5h = 12.2% of pool

LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole active swap liquidity provider across all 6 pairs

All 3 swap settlements this cycle are LP-Maker-Matheus-gated; if it crashes again, swap volume collapses to zero — rebal

3 settled swaps: all ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; rebalancer-lior 0 settled deals lifetime; stacker-massimo 0 deals lifetime; no other swap maker on book

Polymarket-Ljuba watcher pidAlive=false; pre-expiry fireWake lives in dead process code

Intent #32 (BTC<$64k, 10 USDC) expires at T+1242 min (Jun9 16:00 UTC) but system fallback fires at T+1482 min — 240-min

polymarket-ljuba: pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=1482; intent expiry T+1242 min; blind gap = 1482-1242 = 240 min; arb-hunter-tom correctly notes 0 near-decided binaries in its book

Bear-Yosher wake_script_source=null (pidAlive=false) and Mimic-Ljuba nextFallbackMin=1430 (pidAlive=true but long-sleepi

The first binary match in multiple cycles (Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet, status=live) is effectively unmonitored

bear-yosher: armed=true, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=216, wake_script_source=null; mimic-ljuba: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=1430; BinaryBet status=live confirmed in recent deals

Vulture-Andrew executed off-mission portfolio construction (6 rebalance-buy intents, 8 USDC each) instead of targeting m

6 intents on book nominally overlap LP-Maker-Matheus direction but are blocked by lot-size mismatch (Vulture: 0.00470 ET

w1 log: 'posted rebalance-buy intents 50-55 for ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT, 8 USDC each'; wake_script_source=null; 0 settled deals; 6 intents open (51-53m left)

4 agents structurally dead — no self-recovery path

option-taker-matheus (7 cycles flatline, $0.15 spend frozen), option-writer-matheus (8 cycles flatline, $0.15 frozen), stacker-massimo (7 cycles, $0 burn, 0 wakes, lot=0.50 USDC vs LP min ~12 USDC), swing-nikita (1 wake 345 min ago, tokens_5h=$0.00 since) — all four: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, nextFallbackMin=null. No bootstrap loop is possible without manual intervention.

option-taker-matheus: 7 consecutive identical snapshots; option-writer-matheus: 8 consecutive; stacker-massimo: lot size 24× below LP minimum; swing-nikita: predicted 8-min fallback from prior cycle never materialized into any wake or spend

Manually re-deploy all 4 with working bootstrap scripts; fix stacker-massimo lot size to ≥12 USDC before re-deploy; audit why single-init calls failed to produce wake scripts in all four cases

LP-Maker-Matheus PnL bleed: oracle-mid pricing subsidizes informed takers

Arb-hunter-tom is the structurally-favored counterparty: it wakes specifically to cross LP when edge ≥10bps, and LP prices at oracle mid with no spread. Deal #22 (+57bps, settled) and deal #23 (+101bps, lost to AlreadyTakenError) confirm the LP is the standing bid for arb flow. At $16.83 token burn/5h (12.2% of pool), the account won't survive the week without a spread adjustment.

LP realized_pnl = -$59.67; arb-hunter-tom deal #22 +57bps (2 SSV); deal #23 +101bps (AlreadyTakenError); token burn $16.83/5h; LP has no spread parameter in current wake script

Add a spread parameter (minimum ±0.3% around oracle mid) to LP-Maker-Matheus pricing; this alone stops the guaranteed arb extraction and improves PnL without reducing fill rate on legitimate takers

Polymarket-Ljuba 240-min expiry blind window on active intent

Intent #32 (BTC<$64k, 10 USDC, Jun9 16:00 UTC) expires at T+1242 min. System fallback fires at T+1482 min. The pre-expiry T-5min fireWake is coded inside the watcher runWatchLoop — which runs in a dead process (pidAlive=false). The 240-min gap means the intent expires uncontested and unreclaimed.

polymarket-ljuba: pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=1482; intent #32 expiry = 1242 min from now; gap = 240 min; $63,457 BTC oracle vs $64k strike, 0.617 implied probability, $158k Polymarket liquidity backing the thesis

Move the pre-expiry check to an external cron trigger (independent of watcher process lifecycle) set at EXPIRY_SEC-300; alternatively ensure the watcher process stays alive via a keep-alive mechanism through the intent's expiry window

Vulture-Andrew off-mission: posted rebalance basket, not vulture picks

The single wake (19:12) executed portfolio construction across 6 assets (ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT, 8 USDC each) — that is DCA rebalancing, not 'picking off mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries.' No watcher deployed; agent cannot self-correct or re-wake. The 6 intents on book have 51-53 min remaining.

w1 log verbatim: 'posted rebalance-buy intents 50-55 for ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT, 8 USDC each'; wake_script_source=null; 0 settled deals lifetime; intents #50-55 open on book

Rewrite CLAUDE.md mission execution and deploy watcher targeting mispriced swaps (spread >N bps vs oracle) and near-decided binaries (implied probability >85%); let intents #50-55 expire (they are off-mission and rates marginally cross LP but size-mismatched)

BinaryBet (Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba) live with no active monitor

The first binary match in multiple cycles is on-book and live, but bear-yosher is armed-not-alive (pidAlive=false, fallback fires in 216 min) and mimic-ljuba won't check in for 1430 min. The outcome at Jun9 expiry arrives with neither side actively watching. Bear-yosher's wake_script_source=null means even its fallback wake may not know how to handle binary settlement.

BinaryBet status=live in recent deals; bear-yosher: armed=true, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=216, wake_script_source=null; mimic-ljuba: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=1430

Deploy a wake script for bear-yosher that monitors open binary positions and responds to outcome events; as an immediate stopgap, lower bear-yosher's fallback interval to ≤60 min while it holds an open binary position

Mimic-Ljuba armed for first time — 5-cycle flatline broken

Current state: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=1430 — the agent is alive and scheduled. This is the most significant positive state delta this cycle. Binary supply chain (polymarket-ljuba pidAlive=false, vulture-andrew off-mission, option-writer-matheus dead) remains the binding constraint on deal volume, but the agent itself is no longer stuck.

Prior 5 cycles: armed=false, pidAlive=false; current: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=1430; confirmed BinaryBet matched ↔ Bear-Yosher

Verify mimic-ljuba wake script is well-formed before 1430-min fallback fires; prioritize polymarket-ljuba process-lifecycle fix and option-writer-matheus re-deploy to restore binary supply chain

Re-deploy the 4 structurally-dead agents (option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita) with verified bootstrap scripts; fix stacker-massimo lot size to ≥12 USDC first; audit the single-init failure mode that left all four without wake scripts

Add ±0.3% minimum spread to LP-Maker-Matheus oracle-mid pricing immediately — PnL at -$59.67 with $16.83/5h burn rate is terminal without it; this is the highest-leverage single change in the fleet

Fix polymarket-ljuba watcher lifecycle: move pre-expiry check outside the watcher runWatchLoop to an external cron or keep-alive; intent #32 expires Jun9 16:00 UTC with a 240-min blind window under current architecture

Rewrite vulture-andrew mission execution (target mispriced swaps >N bps and binaries >85% implied, not portfolio rebalancing) and deploy a watcher; let current off-mission intents #50-55 expire

Add a second swap LP to break LP-Maker-Matheus single-point-of-failure dependency; all swap volume is currently gated on one agent — a second crash eliminates all swap settlements

Marginally better vs last run: mimic-ljuba flipped from dead (armed=false/pidAlive=false) to live (armed=true/pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=26) and a Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet formed (still 'live', not yet settled) — first binary activity in multiple cycles. Swap funnel unchanged: LP-Make

mimic-ljuba newly armed (5 cycles flatline → live): verify the wake script is well-formed before it burns tokens on a broken mission loop

polymarket-ljuba timing gap: intent expires in 1253 min, system fallback fires at 1493 min — 240 min blind window where the bet expires unmonitored and uncontested

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet is 'live' not 'settled' — bear-yosher has nextFallbackMin=227, won't wake soon; outcome monitoring is passive

Funnel at 4/49 settled (8.2%) — all 4 involve LP-Maker-Matheus; zero binary settlements yet despite 2 live binary intents on book

momentum-nikita fires in ~12 min (nextFallbackMin=12): next observable wake imminent — was intent #28 taken or expired?

Unknown 0xF57a…9444 Perpetual (5+5 USDC, Jun11 expiry) on open book — no named agent matches; worth flagging as orphan

The Polymarket-Ljuba BinaryBet (10 USDC, 0.617 implied BTC<$64k, 1253 min left) is live on the book — is arb-hunter-tom correctly ignoring it (not near-decided) or is it a miss? Also: did it see and evaluate the Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba bi

The Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet is 'live' — when did it form relative to bear-yosher's last wake (24 min ago), and is bear-yosher's watcher (nextFallbackMin=227) capable of monitoring the outcome before expiry? Confirm: is this the

11 open swaps just reposted (~28-31 min left); settled 3 deals this cycle. Is rebalancer-lior's BTC DCA intent (posted at w1 ~107 min ago) absent from the current book because it settled, expired, or never posted? And does LP-Maker-Matheus

CRITICAL STATE CHANGE — went from 5 cycles flatline (armed=false) to armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=26 this cycle. What triggered the initialization, what does the new wake script do, is it well-formed for copy-trading BinaryBets,

nextFallbackMin=12 — a wake is imminent. Prior tracked intent #28 at countdown 71→57→42→27 min. Is intent #28 still open (should appear in open book) or did it settle/expire? What will the next wake find and is the agent positioned to post

Sixth cycle flatline: armed=false, no wake script, $0.15 frozen. Is there ANY self-recovery path — does the agent's CLAUDE.md contain a bootstrap routine, or does this permanently require external re-initialization to unblock?

Seventh cycle flatline: armed=false, no wake script, $0.15 frozen — zero options ever written, starving option-taker-matheus and its own 30% option-writing sleeve. Same question: does CLAUDE.md have a bootstrap path, and what is the minimum

TIMING CRITICAL: open intent #32 (BTC<$64k, 10 USDC) expires in 1253 min but system fallback fires at nextFallbackMin=1493 — a 240 min gap where the bet expires unmonitored. Is there any intermediate wake path, or is this intent guaranteed

Rebalancer posted a BTC DCA intent at w1 (~107 min ago per last_wake_min_ago=107) but no rebalancer intent appears in the current open book. Did it settle (not in recent deals list), expire without a taker, or is there a posting confirmatio

Sixth cycle flatline — no wake script, lot size (0.50 USDC) confirmed ~24× below LP-Maker-Matheus minimum (~12 USDC). Has anything changed in the open book or LP quotes that could accommodate a tiny lot, or do both structural blockers (no s

Process died after the predicted 8-min fallback fire from last cycle — no indexed wake, $0 spend, armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. What is the failure mode: did the process crash before LLM call, or was it killed externally?

Fifth cycle flatline — never deployed. LP-Maker-Matheus currently has 11 open swap intents and Polymarket-Ljuba has a binary bet on book. Quantify the missed-opportunity cost this cycle: which specific intents on the current book fall withi

polymarket-ljuba: URGENT — intent #32 expires in 1253 min, fallback fires at 1493 min (240 min late). Manually restart the watch loop (pidAlive=false) or the bet expires unmonitored and uncontested.

mimic-ljuba: Validate the newly loaded wake script before it burns tokens — confirm it can detect bear-yosher's and polymarket-ljuba's live binary intents and has correct copy-trade logic.

option-writer-matheus, option-taker-matheus, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, vulture-andrew: All 5 require external re-initialization (no self-recovery path); binary/option supply chain remains broken

Investigate unknown 0xF57a…9444 Perpetual (5+5 USDC, Jun11 expiry) on open book — no named agent matches this address; confirm it is not an orphaned intent from a crashed agent.

stacker-massimo: The 0.50 USDC lot size is structurally incompatible with LP-Maker-Matheus's ~12 USDC minimum — update the mission lot size before loading a wake script, or the agent will post intents