Arb-Hunter-Tom

Oracle value 0.04 sAAPL = $12.69, cost $12.56 — $0.13 profit, 101bps, within all risk limits

new binary bet or swap intent (or 2h fallback)

Summary: First run since deployment: 3 wakes, 0 settled deals, $0 burn. W1 was USDC approval housekeeping (necessary precondition). W2 found +101bps edge on sAAPL swap #23 ($0.13 profit, within all limits) and attempted to take it — lost to a race (AcceptIntentAlreadyTakenError, intent Cancelled). W3 found no affordable edge ≥10bps and self-identified a critical stru

arb-hunter-tom graduated from never-run to functional in this cycle: it correctly identified and attempted a +101bps edge on intent #23 but was beaten in the race. The zero-deal outcome is not a logic failure — it is a USDC-only inventory constraint that blocks ~all of lp-maker-matheus's 11 open intents (which require giving crypto). One race loss and one structural wall; the agent is reasoning well but physically can't transact until it holds a non-USDC asset.

W3 log: 'Only USDC held — cannot fill intents requiring crypto as the give-leg.' Intent #23 (the only USDC-pay edge found) was taken by another party before execution. lp-maker-matheus's open BTC sell (0.0002 BTC → 12.76 USDC) and similar intents require giving BTC — impossible from a USDC-only wall

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly sequenced: housekeeping first (USDC approval tx 0x02872034), edge-scan second (found +101bps, attempted, lost race), self-diagnosed inventory gap third. No churn, no re-derivation. The 10bps threshold filter and risk-limit checks are applied correctly. Solving the right problem; the constraint is inventory, not logic.

New binary bet or swap intent posted to book (baseline-delta approach — won't fire on pre-existing intents)

MISSING: oracle price movement on EXISTING intents (current watcher only catches new postings; a USDC→sAAPL intent already on book that becomes +10bps due to or

Has 11 open swaps but arb-hunter can only take USDC-pay legs; lp-maker's BTC/ETH sells (crypto→USDC) are the wrong direction for a USDC-only

Rebalancer posted USDC→BTC intent — arb-hunter can't be the counterparty (it doesn't hold BTC to sell).

Pure taker like arb-hunter; no maker intents posted.

Also taker-only, no maker intents; same inventory problem.

Intent #23 (sAAPL, +101bps, $0.13 profit) was identified and attempted — missed only due to race condition, not a screening failure. All other lp-maker-matheus intents require crypto as give leg; arb-hunter correctly skipped them given USDC-only inventory. No missed opportunities attributable to agent logic error.

Fires on new binary/swap intents — correct for a latency-arb mission where edge lives in newly-posted stale pricing

Baselines existing intents on startup, fires only on FRESH postings — prevents false wakes on stale book

60s poll interval — reasonable for intent-arrival cadence without being sub-minute spam

2h hard fallback ensures agent re-evaluates even in quiet markets

Zero-LLM watcher, PID file written, structurally clean

Only triggers on new intent arrivals — misses edge that opens on EXISTING intents when oracle drifts (e.g., an sAAPL intent already on book crosses the 10bps th

No trigger on oracle price moves that could make stale resting intents newly profitable

Add a secondary price-drift check inside the watch loop: if any existing intent's implied edge (recalculated against live oracle) crosses the 10bps threshold since last poll, fire a wake — this captures the 'stale oracle moves past threshol

USDC-only inventory blocks majority of tradeable intents

arb-hunter can only take intents where it pays USDC. lp-maker-matheus's 11 open intents include crypto→USDC directions (give BTC/ETH) which are unreachable. The agent correctly self-diagnosed this (w3 log). Until it acquires a non-USDC asset (via a successful USDC→X trade), its opportunity surface i

After any successful USDC→X swap, the agent should re-evaluate the book immediately rather than waiting for the next fallback — a successful trade unlocks new give-leg options. Could also consider a lower-edge threshold for the first trade to break the USDC-lock, if risk limits allow.

Race loss on intent #23 — latency gap vs other takers

The one identified edge (+101bps, $0.13) was snagged before the accept call landed (AcceptIntentAlreadyTakenError). With momentum-nikita (last_wake=4min) and other takers alive, races will be common.

Investigate whether the 60s poll interval in the watcher can be tightened for binary/swap intents specifically, or whether the SDK exposes a push/subscription event for new intents to reduce poll lag.

Watcher cannot trigger on oracle-drift edge opening on existing intents

The wake-watch pattern fires only on NEW intent arrivals (via newMatches baseline-delta). An intent already on book that becomes profitable as the oracle reprices will not trigger a wake until the 2h fallback. This is a platform-level gap affecting any latency-arb agent.

SDK should support an oracle-price-change trigger or allow the watcher to re-evaluate edge on existing intents and fire if any crosses the agent's threshold — this is a core/SDK enhancement, not arb-hunter-specific.

Bear-Yosher

Summary: No change since last run — state is identical: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0.78 lifetime (all from one cycle). Two consecutive observer cycles now confirm this is not self-healing. The single LLM run completed (explaining the $0.78 cost) but either never called registerWatcher(), or the call failed silently — the null wake_script_s

bear-yosher has been dark for at least 2 observer cycles with $0.78 total lifetime spend and wake_script_source=null — the watcher registration step was never reached or failed silently. The most likely path: the halt condition was evaluated on first run and the halt branch exits without registering a watcher to re-evaluate later. Agent cannot self-restart.

wake_script_source=null (no script ever written), armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0, $0.78 lifetime (single-run cost) — the agent ran one full LLM cycle, produced no persistent artifact, and has no re-arm path

Cannot assess the reasoning content — no wake log, no script, no recent_wakes array entries. The $0.78 single-cycle burn confirms LLM reasoning ran, but the output didn't produce a registerWatcher() call (or that call failed silently). If the agent evaluated the halt condition (ETH/BTC >2% climb) and chose to halt, it solved the right sub-problem but the halt path is missing a watcher to re-check

MISSING: no wake script registered — agent cannot fire again without manual re-spawn

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

bear-yosher trades perpetuals (short ETH/BTC), not swaps — lp-maker's 11 open swap intents don't directly match, but if bear-yosher ever pos

mission overlap on directional ETH/BTC exposure — bear-yosher's short perps could hedge option-writer's crypto leg

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has no wake script and no active monitoring; cannot evaluate whether perpetual opportunities existed since last run

No script exists at all (wake_script_source=null) — the watcher registration step was never completed

Halt path (ETH/BTC climbing >2%) appears to exit without registering a watcher to re-check the condition, leaving agent permanently dark instead of paused

No fallback cadence to re-evaluate halt condition (e.g., every 30-60 min to check if climb reversed)

Fix the halt path in bear-yosher's CLAUDE.md / first-run instruction: even when halting, always call registerWatcher() with a 30-60 min fallback cadence so the agent wakes to re-evaluate the halt condition — a mission that 'halts when price

Halt path exits without registering watcher

The agent's first-run LLM cycle cost $0.78 (full reasoning) but produced no wake_script_source. The mission says 'halt when price climbs persistently >2%' — the halt branch likely exits cleanly without arming a watcher to re-check. Result: permanent dark, not a patient pause.

Update bear-yosher's CLAUDE.md: the halt branch must always call registerWatcher() with a re-check interval (suggest 45 min fallback) before exiting, so the agent can self-resurrect when the climb condition reverses

No re-arm path — requires manual re-spawn indefinitely

Two consecutive observer cycles, zero change. wakes=0 counter and wake_script_source=null confirm the agent is not self-healing. Without intervention it will remain crashed.

Manually re-spawn bear-yosher; simultaneously patch the halt-path watcher gap above to prevent recurrence

LP-Maker-Matheus

sAAPL drop made existing bid dangerous (must cancel before overpay fill). BTC order at +40bps is free money with ample i

new fillable intent OR quote-refresh 5min before expiry (65min fallback)

Summary: Verdict call failed.

Mimic-Ljuba

Summary: No change since last run: still 0 wakes, $0 burn, armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null. The agent has never been initialized. Even if deployed today, the binary-bet supply chain it depends on remains broken — polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, and option-writer-matheus are all still crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false). arb-hunter-tom is now

mimic-ljuba has zero path to productive operation this cycle. Two independent blockers must both be resolved first: (1) the agent must be initialized and a watcher deployed (0 wakes, null wake_script), and (2) at least one binary-bet writer — polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, or option-writer-matheus — must be uncrashed and posting, since arb-hunter-tom's role is to take those bets, not supply them.

0 lifetime wakes, null wake_script_source, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false — agent never bootstrapped. Supply chain: polymarket-ljuba (armed=false/pidAlive=false), vulture-andrew (armed=false/pidAlive=false), option-writer-matheus (armed=false/pidAlive=false) — all three potential binary

N/A — agent has never run; no reasoning to evaluate. The prior summary correctly diagnosed the dual blocker and nothing has changed to alter that conclusion.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher process (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

MISSING: no binary-bet-posted event trigger (all supply-side agents crashed)

Takes binary bets (taker-side), does not post them — produces no flow for mimic-ljuba to mirror

Posts small-shade binary intents; mimic-ljuba's primary mirror source

Posts near-decided binary intents as part of baited-intent strategy; could supply mimic-ljuba

Writes options and potentially binary instruments; secondary supply source

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never run and has no wake script; cannot assess whether any on-chain BinaryBets existed that it could have accepted

No script exists at all (wake_script_source=null) — agent was never initialized

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

No trigger on BinaryBet-posted events from fleet counterparties

Initialize the agent: deploy a watcher that triggers on BinaryBet-posted chain events from polymarket-ljuba and vulture-andrew addresses, with a 60-min fallback for scanning open accepted bets — but this is moot until at least one supply-si

Agent never initialized — no watcher deployed

0 wakes, $0 burn, null wake_script_source, armed=false, pidAlive=false. The agent directory exists but was never bootstrapped with a watcher script.

Run agent init to deploy wake script and start watcher process; script should trigger on BinaryBet-posted events with 60-min fallback.

All binary-bet supply-side agents crashed — mimic-ljuba has no flow to mirror

polymarket-ljuba, vulture-andrew, and option-writer-matheus are all armed=false/pidAlive=false. These three are the only agents in the fleet that post binary bets. arb-hunter-tom (alive) is a taker, not a poster — it competes for the same flow mimic-ljuba needs.

Uncrash polymarket-ljuba first (it has the highest binary posting frequency per mission); this single action creates the supply chain mimic-ljuba needs and also benefits arb-hunter-tom's deal flow.

Momentum-Nikita

First wake — no trailing returns. Establishing baseline prices. Taking ~25% starter position in BTC (strongest crypto by

intent #28 resolves (fill/expiry) or 90min

Summary: Graduated from zero-run/no-script to first wake executed (06-08T17:47, 5 min ago). Agent identified BTC as strongest mover, established baselines, posted a ~25% starter BTC buy as intent #28, and armed its watcher to fire on resolution or 90min fallback. This is healthy first-wake behavior. The open_intents metric shows 0 despite intent #28 being posted — li

Momentum-nikita is alive and correctly waiting: it ran once, posted BTC buy intent #28 (~25% starter), and its watcher is armed with 87min to fallback. The 0 open_intents display is a metrics discrepancy — intent #28 is in the fleet-wide posted count. The real question is whether lp-maker-matheus will fill at momentum-nikita's implied BTC price; the rebalancer-lior gap (63,348 vs 63,800/BTC) suggests the floor is roughly $452 wide.

Intent #28 posted (BTC buy, ~25% position). Only viable counterparty is lp-maker-matheus quoting BTC sell at ~63,800/BTC. Rebalancer-lior's concurrent BTC buy implies ~63,348/BTC — a $452 gap lp-maker hasn't bridged. Momentum-nikita's buy rate unknown but likely in similar range. No fill in 5 min. T

Sound and on-mission for a first wake: identified a momentum leader (BTC), took a calibrated starter position (25%), established baseline prices for future rotation decisions, deferred larger commitment until the fill confirms. Not re-deriving or churning. One wake is too thin to judge churn risk, but the logic is correct.

ownIntentResolved(intentId='28') — fires when intent #28 fills or expires

90min fallback timer (nextFallback=87min remaining)

Primary BTC/USDC liquidity provider with 11 open swap intents including BTC sells; the natural fill counterparty for momentum-nikita's BTC b

Could take the other side of a momentum swap if pricing overlaps, but its primary mission is CEX/oracle arbitrage on binaries, not swap fill

Fade-dislocation strategy could post a BTC sell if BTC is stretched above trailing average — complementary direction, but mission is indepen

unmeasurable: agent just woke for the first time 5 min ago and posted its own intent rather than scanning others' intents to take. Whether lp-maker-matheus had a fillable BTC sell at a price momentum-nikita could have taken directly is not visible from this data. Worth checking next wake whether the agent scans existing open intents before posting new ones.

Fires on the exact event the agent cares about: intent #28 resolution (fill or expiry) — not on a time poll

90min fallback covers full RFQ window with buffer — appropriate cadence for a patient momentum agent

Zero-LLM, uses ownIntentResolved helper correctly

Armed with a label that makes debugging clear

Watches only its own intent resolution — cannot detect if a better momentum leader emerges mid-wait (e.g., ETH suddenly outpaces BTC in the 90min window)

No price-movement trigger: if BTC dumps hard while waiting, the watcher won't fire early to let the agent abort or hedge

Add a secondary price-delta trigger: if the lead asset's return vs baseline swings by ±X% (agent-configurable threshold), fire early so the agent can re-evaluate rotation rather than waiting the full 90min on a position that may have invert

open_intents metric shows 0 despite intent #28 being posted

Agent posted intent #28 per its wake log, and intent #28 appears in the fleet-wide count (28 posted). Yet metrics.open_intents=0 for momentum-nikita. Likely a metrics attribution lag or address mismatch in the per-agent intent count.

Verify that open_intents aggregation joins on the agent's signing address, not just the agent slug; reconcile with the fleet-wide posted count.

Wake script has no early-exit on momentum reversal

Agent commits to a 90min wait on intent #28 with no mechanism to re-evaluate if BTC momentum reverses intra-wait. A strong reversal could mean the agent holds a losing starter position until expiry.

Add a price-delta sentinel to current.ts: if lead-asset return crosses a negative threshold vs baseline, fireWake early with a 'momentum-reversed' reason so the agent can decide to cancel or hedge.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: No change since last cycle — still fully crashed: armed=false, pidAlive=false, null wake script, $0.15 lifetime spend (one LLM call, indexing gap hides it as 0 wakes). The Step-1 focus question is answered: the primary blocker is the null wake_script_source — without a registered watcher the agent cannot revive regardless of market conditions. Secondary bloc

Dual structural failure: wake_script_source is null (watcher never registered, agent cannot self-restart), and its only option-writer counterparty is also crashed. $0.15 lifetime burn proves one wake fired, but the agent has been dead since. Fleet has 0 live option supply for it to consume even if revived.

wake_script_source=null → no watcher registered; armed=false, pidAlive=false both confirm dead process; option-writer-matheus also armed=false/pidAlive=false — 0 options written on-chain for option-taker to buy; settled_deals=not-indexed, open_intents=null

N/A — no mission reasoning observable. One LLM call ($0.15) fired at some point (likely initial boot or single wake attempt) but produced no indexed wake record and no on-chain action. Cannot assess reasoning quality from a single unrecorded call.

MISSING: wake script is null — no trigger is registered at all

MISSING: no fallback scheduled (nextFallbackMin=null)

Should trigger on: new option intents from option-writer-matheus appearing on-chain; or a timed cadence to poll for cheap/near-decided options

Sole fleet option writer for ETH/BTC — the only source of contracts this agent can take

CRASHED: armed=false, pidAlive=false — w

Also buys options/binaries; a competitor for supply, not a counterparty

none — option-writer-matheus has been crashed the entire window and has posted 0 option intents; there is no option supply in the fleet for this agent to take

wake_script_source is null — no watcher file exists or is readable; the agent cannot register any trigger

No fallback timer set; even a blind periodic wake (e.g. every 30–60 min) would at least keep the agent alive to scan for options

Write a current.ts that wakes on a 30-min fallback and polls for open option intents from option-writer-matheus's address; fire immediately if any ITM option exists, otherwise reschedule — this unblocks the agent without requiring option-wr

Null wake script — watcher never registered

wake_script_source is null; the watcher process is dead (pidAlive=false) and cannot self-restart. This is the hard blocker — fixing counterparty supply alone does nothing while this is unresolved.

Recreate current.ts with a 30-min fallback + option-intent poll trigger; re-register the watcher via the SDK start command

Sole counterparty option-writer-matheus is also crashed

Even after watcher is restored, there is 0 option supply in the fleet. Lifetime deal count is 0. The market this agent targets does not exist while option-writer-matheus is down.

Revive option-writer-matheus in parallel; otherwise option-taker-matheus will wake, find nothing, and idle — correct behavior but zero-value until supply exists

Option-Writer-Matheus

Summary: Still fully crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false) — no change since last run. The $0.15 lifetime burn equals last_wake_usd exactly, confirming one partial wake that never registered (wakes=0). wake_script_source=null meaning no watcher script was ever written to disk — the agent crashed before completing first-run initialization. open_intents remains null so

option-writer-matheus has never completed a single wake cycle. Its sole $0.15 spend occurred before the wakes counter or watcher could register, indicating a crash in the first-run initialization path — likely in CLAUDE.md tooling, skill loading, or Pyth Benchmarks data fetch for the contrarian portfolio engine. No watcher = no fallback = permanently offline until manually restarted and the crash root cause fixed.

wakes=0 yet tokens_lifetime_usd=$0.15 (= last_wake_usd) confirms crash during first wake before counter incremented; wake_script_source=null confirms no watcher file was ever written; armed=false + pidAlive=false = fully dead

Cannot assess — no wake output, no watcher script, no reasoning trace available. The $0.15 burn is consistent with one LLM initialization call that errored before producing actionable output.

MISSING: no watcher deployed (wake_script_source=null) — agent has never armed

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — will not self-recover

natural buyer for options this agent would write (ETH/BTC cash-settled)

values Options vs Polymarket implied distribution; would buy mispriced options

focuses on binary bets and swap arbitrage, not options

unmeasurable: watcher never armed, agent never scanned the book — and both natural option counterparties (option-taker-matheus, polymarket-ljuba) are also crashed, so there was likely nothing to take anyway

wake_script_source=null — no watcher script exists on disk; agent crashed before producing one

Cannot evaluate cadence, triggers, or mission fit — there is nothing to evaluate

Fix the first-run crash (see issues below) so the agent can produce a watcher; only then evaluate the script's mission fit

First-run initialization crash before watcher registration

$0.15 burned (one LLM call), wakes=0, wake_script_source=null — agent died in init before writing a watcher or incrementing its wake counter. Likely cause: Pyth Benchmarks data fetch for the contrarian engine failing, or a CLAUDE.md tool/skill load error on first run.

Retrieve the transcript/log for the $0.15 burn event; find the error; fix the CLAUDE.md initialization path (likely the Pyth return-data fetch or option-judge tool setup)

No watcher deployed — agent cannot self-recover

Without a watcher armed, the agent will never wake again on its own. Even after fixing the crash, it needs a manual restart to re-enter the loop.

After fixing crash root cause, manually trigger a fresh run so the agent can produce and arm its watcher

open_intents=null — indexer not scanning this agent's on-chain address

Cannot determine whether the partial first wake posted any Option intents on-chain. The null (vs 0) is an indexer gap, not confirmed zero.

Add option-writer-matheus's agent address to the on-chain intent index so future cycles can report actual open intent count

All Option counterparties crashed simultaneously

option-writer-matheus, option-taker-matheus, and polymarket-ljuba are all armed=false/pidAlive=false. Even if option-writer-matheus recovers, it has zero live buyers.

Prioritize restarting option-taker-matheus alongside option-writer-matheus — one writer with zero takers produces intents that expire worthless

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: No change since last run: still 0 wakes, $0 lifetime burn, armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null. The agent has never been deployed — not crashed in the sense of a regression, but never started. The primary blocker is the absence of a wake script; the secondary (and unknowable from here) blocker is whether the Polymarket external API is reacha

polymarket-ljuba has never run a single wake (0 wakes, $0 burn, null wake_script_source). armed=false + pidAlive=false + nextFallbackMin=null is a true crash/never-started state, not a resting interval. The entire mission — pricing Options and BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution — is structurally blocked until a wake script is written and registered.

wake_script_source=null (watcher never registered); armed=false; pidAlive=false; 0 wakes lifetime; no settled deals, no open intents. No script → no wakes → no pricing → no trades. Secondary: Polymarket REST/WebSocket API reachability from this environment unverified — if blocked by egress policy, t

No reasoning to evaluate — the agent has never woken. The mission design is sound (arbitrage between an external probability oracle and on-chain priced Options/Binaries is a legitimate edge), but it is entirely unrealized. The risk of 'sound reasoning solving the wrong problem' doesn't apply yet; the problem is that the loop never started.

MISSING: no wake script registered (wake_script_source=null) — nothing fires this agent

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — no safety net even if a script were deployed

MISSING: Polymarket API poll (required for mission pricing) — not implemented

writes ETH/BTC options polymarket-ljuba would value against Polymarket implied vol and buy if mispriced

also consumes options; could compete for the same mispriced legs, not a direct counterparty

takes near-decided binaries — polymarket-ljuba posts small-shade binaries when nothing's mispriced; these could cross, but arb-hunter-tom ta

swap liquidity provider, not an options or binary counterparty

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never woken, so it has never seen the book. Note: option-writer-matheus (the primary natural counterparty) is also crashed, so there may be no mispriced options to take even if the agent were live.

No wake script exists at all (wake_script_source=null) — nothing to evaluate

No fallback timer registered — agent would be permanently dark even after a script is written unless a nextFallbackMin is set

Mission requires live Polymarket API data (implied probability per market) — script must fetch and parse this before any pricing decision; API reachability in t

Write and register a wake script that: (1) fetches Polymarket market probabilities via their REST API, (2) compares implied prob against any open on-chain Options/BinaryBets, (3) fires a wake only when spread > threshold — with a fallback t

Wake script never deployed

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false — the agent has never started. Primary fix is writing and registering a watcher.

Author a watcher that polls Polymarket API for implied probabilities, compares to on-chain option/binary prices, and wakes the agent when a mispriced spread is detected; register with a ~60min fallback.

Polymarket external API reachability unverified

The mission is fully dependent on Polymarket's external REST endpoint. If egress to polymarket.com is blocked by this environment's network policy, the agent cannot function regardless of how well the wake script is written. This is a platform/infra concern, not agent-level.

Test egress to Polymarket API from the agent runtime environment (e.g., curl polymarket.com/api/... from the host). If blocked, either add an egress allowlist entry or designate a proxy — this fix benefits any future external-data-dependent agent.

No fallback timer configured

nextFallbackMin=null means even after a script is written, if the primary trigger condition is never met, the agent stays permanently dark with no safety heartbeat.

Set a fallback timer (suggest 60min) in the wake script registration so the agent wakes periodically to re-evaluate even if no pricing signal fires.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC is most underweight at -35pp. DCA slice = $7. Needed to register agent first (PosterNotRegistered prereq).

intent #13 fills/expires or US market opens (4h fallback)

Summary: Graduated from never-run (armed=false, 0 wakes) to live in one productive wake: registered, approved USDC, and posted intent #13 (7 USDC → 0.0001105 BTC, implied ~63,348/BTC). The intent does NOT cross lp-maker-matheus's BTC sell (asks ~63,800/BTC — $452 gap, ~0.7%). With last_wake_min_ago=32 and the Step-1 estimate of ~30min remaining on the intent, intent

First wake succeeded end-to-end: prereq resolved, intent posted. But the single open BTC buy (7 USDC @ implied 63,348/BTC) has a $452 gap versus lp-maker's cheapest BTC sell (63,800/BTC) — no fleet cross is possible at current prices. Intent has likely expired; wake 2 is expected shortly via ownIntentResolved.

rebalancer bid: 7 USDC / 0.0001105 BTC = 63,348 USDC/BTC; lp-maker-matheus ask: 12.76 USDC / 0.0002 BTC = 63,800 USDC/BTC — gap of $452 (~0.7%). No fleet agent is currently posting BTC at or below 63,348/BTC. lp-maker is the only BTC seller; the spread eats the cross.

Sound and on-mission. Wake 1 correctly identified BTC as most underweight (-35pp), sized a $7 DCA slice, resolved the PosterNotRegistered prereq, and posted. No churn — one wake, one productive action. The problem is market structure (spread), not reasoning.

ownIntentResolved on intent #13 (filled or expired)

setTimeout for US market open at 17:30 UTC 2026-06-08 (stock DCA trigger)

Has live BTC sell (0.0002 BTC → 12.76 USDC ≈ 63,800/BTC) but $452 above rebalancer's implied bid; also size mismatch (lp-maker sells 0.0002

Latency arb on CEX feed — could bridge price gap if CEX BTC dips to ~63,348 and on-chain spread creates arb, but this is indirect

Fades dislocations — would sell BTC if stretched above trailing avg; unknown current BTC positioning

Concentrates into movers — not a natural BTC seller at current conditions

None identifiable — rebalancer's mission is to post patient DCA slices, not take others' offers. lp-maker's smallest BTC unit (0.0002 BTC for 12.76 USDC) exceeds rebalancer's target size (0.0001105 BTC) and is priced above its implied bid. No takeable BTC sell at or below 63,348/BTC exists on the book.

ownIntentResolved poll is exactly right — when the DCA slice fills or expires, re-decide immediately rather than waiting for a blind timer

US market open trigger (17:30 UTC) is mission-appropriate for stock DCA legs — proactive rather than purely reactive

4h fallback is patient and appropriate for a DCA agent that thinks in hours, not minutes

Zero-LLM, PID-registered, and can't fire on a non-empty book — structurally clean

No price-drift trigger: if BTC spot drops ~0.7% to close the lp-maker gap, the watcher won't wake early to reprice or repost — it will just wait for expiry

Add a belt price check in the watchLoop: if current BTC price drops below rebalancer's last-posted implied (e.g., < 63,000/BTC) or rises enough to widen the underweight, fireWake early to cancel-and-repost at a more competitive rate — narro

No price-adaptive repricing between wakes

Intent #13 is posted at a fixed 63,348/BTC implied. lp-maker's cheapest BTC is 63,800/BTC. If BTC price moves during the intent's life, the watcher won't reprice — it waits for expiry (up to 4h) before the agent can re-evaluate.

In watchLoop, poll current BTC oracle price; if it has moved enough that a re-posted intent would cross lp-maker (or that the underweight has deepened further), call fireWake early with a 'reprice' reason. Keeps DCA competitive without thrashing.

Intent size mismatches lp-maker's minimum unit

Rebalancer wants 0.0001105 BTC; lp-maker's open BTC sell is 0.0002 BTC minimum. Even if price gap closed, lp-maker can't partially fill. Agent may need to either adjust slice size or accept that lp-maker's intent format doesn't support partial fills.

Check whether lp-maker intents support partial delivery; if not, consider sizing the DCA slice to 0.0002 BTC (~12.76 USDC) when BTC is the target — matches lp-maker's unit and removes size mismatch as a blocker.

Stacker-Massimo

Summary: No change since last run: still never-deployed — 0 wakes, $0 burn, wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback. Two independent blockers confirmed: (1) deployment failure — agent cannot run until a wake script is loaded and watcher armed; (2) mission-level size mismatch — 0.50 USDC per-wake slice vs lp-maker-matheus's ~12.48 USDC minimu

stacker-massimo remains fully undeployed — 0 wakes, $0 lifetime cost, null wake script. Two separate blockers: the watcher is not armed (deployment failure, scope: agent), and the mission's 0.50 USDC slice is 25× smaller than lp-maker-matheus's minimum sNVDA offer (~12.48 USDC), so even a healthy deployment produces an agent that posts intents no counterparty can fill (scope: mission/agent). These are independent — resolving only deployment still yields 0 deals.

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false across two consecutive cycles; lp-maker-matheus sNVDA minimum ~12.48 USDC vs mission slice 0.50 USDC (25× gap); no other sNVDA seller visible in fleet roster

N/A — agent has never executed a reasoning loop. No wake script exists to evaluate. The mission spec itself contains the size mismatch (0.50 USDC slice), which is the wrong parameter regardless of how sound any future wake script might be.

MISSING: no wake script loaded — watcher cannot arm

Only sNVDA seller in fleet; minimum lot ~12.48 USDC vs stacker's 0.50 USDC slice — 25× size gap, structurally incompatible at current missio

alive, 11 open intents, but none fillabl

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — but even with book visibility, lp-maker-matheus's minimum sNVDA offer exceeds stacker's slice by 25×; no fillable opportunity exists at current mission parameters

No wake script exists — null source, cannot evaluate fit-to-mission

Even a correct watcher cannot bridge the 0.50 USDC vs 12.48 USDC size mismatch — that requires a mission parameter change

Fix deployment first (load a wake script, arm the watcher), then raise the per-wake slice from 0.50 USDC to at least 12.50 USDC in the mission config to align with lp-maker-matheus's minimum lot — otherwise the agent wakes, finds no fillabl

Deployment failure: no wake script, watcher never armed

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false for two consecutive cycles. Agent has never run a single wake. No fallback scheduled.

Load a wake script into stacker-massimo and arm the watcher with a fallback timer. This is a prerequisite for any other fix.

Mission size mismatch: 0.50 USDC slice incompatible with available sNVDA liquidity

lp-maker-matheus is the only sNVDA seller in the fleet; its minimum offer is ~12.48 USDC. stacker-massimo's mission hard-codes 0.50 USDC per wake — a 25× shortfall. Deployment alone cannot fix this.

Raise the per-wake USDC slice to ≥12.50 USDC in stacker-massimo's mission config (CLAUDE.md or equivalent), or negotiate smaller-lot sNVDA availability from lp-maker-matheus at the fleet level.

Swing-Nikita

First wake setup — need approval to trade when signals fire

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, wakes=0, last_wake_usd=$0.56 (= tokens_lifetime_usd), open_intents=null, settled_deals_detail=[], wake_script_source=null — agent never completed a single cycle

MISSING: wake script never written (wake_script_source=null) — watcher was never initialized

LP posts bilateral swap intents for ETH, BTC, SSV, sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT vs USDC — all valid dislocation targets for a mean-reversion strategy

DCA rebalancer posts directional delivered swaps that could cross with swing's fade if directions align

wake_script_source is null — no watcher was ever written or persisted; agent cannot self-restart

No fallback timer set (nextFallbackMin=null) — if the crash recurs, there is no recovery path

Without a watcher, the agent cannot check trailing averages on any cadence or react to book events

Fatal crash on first wake — no watcher ever armed

$0.56 burned in one invocation, wakes counter stuck at 0, no intent posted, no wake script written. The agent's CLAUDE.md or initialization logic has an unhandled error path that kills the process before the wake completes.

Inspect the agent's startup logs for the exception; the most likely culprits are an unhandled promise rejection in oracle data fetching, a schema mismatch in trailing-average computation, or a missing SDK import. Fix the crash, confirm one full wake completes, then verify the watcher is written to d

wakes=0 despite last_wake_usd=$0.56 — wake accounting inconsistency

The metrics show a $0.56 spend attributed to last_wake_usd but wakes=0. The wake counter is either incremented at end-of-wake (so a crash mid-wake leaves it at 0) or the indexer is not capturing the spend event correctly. This makes it impossible to distinguish 'never ran' from 'crashed mid-first-ru

Increment the wake counter at wake-start (not wake-end) in the SDK, or emit a wake-start event the indexer can latch onto — so a crashed wake is recorded as wakes=1 with a null completion status rather than invisible.

Vulture-Andrew

Summary: Unchanged since last run: vulture-andrew has never executed — 0 wakes, $0 lifetime burn, wake_script_source is null. This is a deployment gap, not a crash. lp-maker-matheus now holds 11 open swap intents expiring in ~43-48 min at prices vulture's mission explicitly targets (e.g., BTC sell at ~63,800/BTC vs rebalancer-lior's implied 63,348/BTC — a $452 spread

vulture-andrew is fully uninitialized: 0 wakes, null wake script, armed=false, pidAlive=false. lp-maker-matheus has 11 swap intents on the book right now — the exact mispricing surface vulture's mission targets — all expiring in <50 min. The sole blocker is a missing wake script deployment; nothing else can be diagnosed until it runs once.

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; watcher.nextFallbackMin=null; 0 wakes ever; 11 lp-maker-matheus swap intents on book, 0 taken

Unmeasurable — agent has never run. No reasoning has been produced to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake script exists at all — watcher cannot arm, agent cannot wake

11 open swap intents on book right now at prices vulture should be scanning; lp-maker-matheus is the primary mispricing surface for a taker-

alive, health=ok, 11 intents expiring ~4

has a live 7 USDC→0.0001105 BTC intent; vulture could post a sharper baited counter-intent

both are takers — no counterparty relationship; they compete for the same edges

11 lp-maker-matheus swap intents currently on book, all in vulture's target mispricing class — 0 taken because agent has never run. Opportunity window closes in <50 min as intents expire.

wake_script_source is null — no watcher script exists at all; agent cannot arm or fire under any condition

Deploy a wake script that polls open swap intents on the book, filters for spread vs oracle above a threshold (e.g. >0.5%), and fires immediately — with a fallback interval of ~15 min for binary near-decided scans.

Wake script never deployed — agent permanently uninitialized

wake_script_source=null means no watcher has ever armed. This is not a crash recovery situation; vulture-andrew requires a first-time initialization. Every open mispriced intent on the book (currently 11 from lp-maker-matheus) is a missed edge the mission explicitly calls for.

Write and deploy a current.ts wake script for vulture-andrew that: (1) reads open swap intents, (2) computes spread vs oracle, (3) fires the agent when spread > threshold or a binary is near-decided, (4) has a 10-15 min fallback. This single action unblocks all downstream function.

wallet-address frequency (5/12 agents addressed)

MAKER LIVE, FLEET DARK

lp-maker-matheus (ask 63,800) ⇄ rebalancer-lior (bid 63,348) + momentum-nikita (intent #28, bid TBD)

FROZEN — $452 spread (0.7%) blocks cross; 2 buyers armed, 1 seller, 0 fills

lp-maker-matheus (both sides) ⇄ arb-hunter-tom (attempted intent #23)

RACE LOST — arb-hunter found +101bps edge but 0x1a74 took it first; crypto-give

lp-maker-matheus only (13.4 USDC→0.008 ETH + 0.01 ETH→16.92 USDC)

ORPHANED — no armed fleet taker; arb-hunter blocked on ETH-give leg

lp-maker-matheus only (8.4 USDC→4 SSV + 2 SSV→4.24 USDC)

lp-maker-matheus only (both sides posted)

lp-maker-matheus (both sides) ⇄ stacker-massimo (mission target, never deployed)

ORPHANED — stacker never deployed; 25× size mismatch (0.50 USDC slice vs ~12.48

lp-maker-matheus is the sole active maker across all 6 markets

All 11 open intents are lp-maker's; no fleet taker can meet its prices or asset requirements — fleet internal deal count

28 posted, 1 settled (3.6% conversion); sole deal: '0x1a74…7A77 ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus [Swap] settled'; 0 settled deals among arb-hunter-tom, rebalancer-lior, momentum-nikita

BTC ask/bid spread: lp-maker asks 63,800/BTC, rebalancer bids 63,348/BTC

BTC market frozen — rebalancer-lior intent expiring imminently and momentum-nikita intent #28 both waiting; neither will

rebalancer: 7 USDC / 0.0001105 BTC = 63,348; lp-maker: 12.76 USDC / 0.0002 BTC = 63,800; $452 gap confirmed in both agent summaries

Cannot fill ~half of lp-maker's book (crypto-give legs require BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sMSFT); lost the only viable USDC-give

W3 log: 'Only USDC held — cannot fill intents requiring crypto as the give-leg'; AcceptIntentAlreadyTakenError on intent #23 taken by 0x1a74; 0 settled deals

vulture-andrew never initialized (0 wakes, null script, armed=false)

lp-maker's 11 open intents — exact mission target for vulture-andrew — are expiring without a fleet taker; external part

vulture-andrew: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false; 11 lp-maker intents on book expiring in 35–60min; reliableCounterparties=1 (lp-maker)

option-writer-matheus crashed during first-wake init (wakes=0, $0.15 burn, null script)

Entire binary options supply chain offline — option-taker-matheus has nothing to buy, mimic-ljuba has no signal source;

option-writer: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false; option-taker: same state; mimic-ljuba: same state — all three across ≥2 consecutive observer cycles

7 agents armed=false + pidAlive=false + null wake_script across ≥2 cycles

Fleet effective taker count = 3 (arb-hunter, rebalancer, momentum-nikita) against a book built for 10+; conversion stuck

bear-yosher, mimic-ljuba, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, polymarket-ljuba, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew: all null script, 0 wakes, $0 (or one crashed-wake cost)

7-agent deployment blackout — binary options chain fully offline

bear-yosher, mimic-ljuba, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, polymarket-ljuba, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew all show armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null across ≥2 consecutive observer cycles — no self-healing in progress

7 agents × null wake_script_source, 0 lifetime wakes among them; option-writer crash propagates: blocks option-taker → blocks mimic-ljuba; vulture-andrew = 0 wakes despite 11 live lp-maker targets

Manual bootstrap required per agent. Priority: (1) vulture-andrew — immediate revenue, 11 lp-maker intents on book now expiring within 60min; (2) option-writer-matheus — unlocks 3-agent binary options chain; (3) stacker-massimo — needs size-mismatch fix in CLAUDE.md before deploy

0 fleet-internal deals — only external party settled

28 intents posted, 1 settled (3.6% conversion). The single settled deal was 0x1a74 (external) ↔ lp-maker-matheus — not a fleet match. All 3 armed taker agents (arb-hunter-tom, rebalancer-lior, momentum-nikita) hold 0 settled deals.

Recent deals: ['0x1a74…7A77 ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus [Swap] settled']; orient confirms 'fleet internal deal count remains 0'

Three parallel unlocks: deploy vulture-andrew (takes lp-maker intents directly), close BTC spread (enables rebalancer + momentum-nikita crosses), fund arb-hunter-tom with multi-asset wallet

BTC market frozen — $452 maker/taker spread

rebalancer-lior bids 63,348/BTC (intent expiring imminently); lp-maker-matheus asks 63,800/BTC. momentum-nikita's intent #28 (BTC buy) also awaiting fill. Two armed buyers, one seller, zero crosses.

rebalancer: 7 USDC / 0.0001105 BTC = 63,348; lp-maker: 12.76 USDC / 0.0002 BTC = 63,800; $452 gap (0.71%) confirmed in both agent summaries

lp-maker-matheus CLAUDE.md could lower BTC ask toward 63,350 to capture both buyers; alternatively rebalancer-lior could accept a ~0.7% premium on its BTC target price

arb-hunter-tom USDC-locked — half the book inaccessible

arb-hunter holds USDC only. Of lp-maker's 11 open intents, roughly half require giving crypto (BTC, ETH, SSV, sAAPL, sMSFT, sNVDA). The sole USDC-give opportunity found (sAAPL intent #23, +101bps, $0.13 profit) was taken by external 0x1a74 in a race.

W3 self-report: 'Only USDC held — cannot fill intents requiring crypto as the give-leg'; AcceptIntentAlreadyTakenError on intent #23; 3 wakes, 0 settled deals

Fund arb-hunter-tom wallet with ETH, BTC, SSV to access full lp-maker book; or narrow CLAUDE.md mission to USDC-give-only arb and optimize execution speed to beat external racers

vulture-andrew undeployed while target intents expire

vulture-andrew's explicit mission is to take expiring lp-maker swap intents. lp-maker has 11 open intents (BTC, ETH, SSV, sNVDA, sMSFT, sAAPL) expiring in 35–60min. vulture has never run: 0 wakes, $0 burn, null script.

11 lp-maker intents in open book; vulture-andrew summary: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, reliableCounterparties=1 (lp-maker identified as sole counterparty)

Bootstrap vulture-andrew immediately — its target window is live and closing within the hour

3 taker agents graduated to live this cycle

arb-hunter-tom (3 wakes, found real +101bps sAAPL edge), rebalancer-lior (clean first wake, intent #13 live), momentum-nikita (first wake, intent #28 posted) all armed with scheduled fallbacks — healthy progression from 0 last cycle.

arb-hunter: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=109; rebalancer: armed=true, nextFallbackMin=204; momentum-nikita: armed=true, nextFallbackMin=80; swing-nikita: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=46

None — monitor BTC spread resolution for rebalancer + momentum-nikita fills; swing-nikita wakes in ~46min

Bootstrap vulture-andrew now — 11 lp-maker intents are its exact mission target and expire within 60min; every minute it's dark is a missed fleet-internal deal

Close the BTC spread: lp-maker ask (63,800) vs rebalancer + momentum-nikita bids (~63,348) has a $452 gap; lp-maker lowering its BTC ask to ~63,350 would produce up to 2 fleet-internal BTC deals immediately

Bootstrap option-writer-matheus to unlock the 3-agent binary options chain (option-writer → option-taker-matheus → mimic-ljuba); all three are stuck at null wake_script, one init failure cascades

Fund arb-hunter-tom wallet with ETH/BTC/SSV — USDC-only constraint locks it out of ~half of lp-maker's book; with multi-asset, it becomes the primary internal taker for crypto-give intents

Better than last run: arb-hunter-tom and swing-nikita have graduated from never-run/crashed to armed-and-alive (both pidAlive=true), and rebalancer-lior now has a live intent on the book — but the sole settled deal (lp-maker-matheus ↔ 0x1a74) was external, not a fleet match, so internal fleet liquid

3 taker-capable agents (arb-hunter-tom last_wake=13min, swing-nikita nextFallback=54min, momentum-nikita last_wake=4min) are alive but have taken 0 of lp-maker-matheus's 11 open swap intents — diagnos

Rebalancer-lior's 7 USDC → 0.0001105 BTC intent expires in ~30min; lp-maker-matheus has a matching BTC sell (0.0002 BTC → 12.76 USDC ≈ 63,800/BTC) vs rebalancer's implied 63,348/BTC — a ~$452 gap; doe

7 agents remain fully crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false): bear-yosher, mimic-ljuba, option-taker-matheus, option-writer-matheus, polymarket-ljuba, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew — no change since

Funnel: 28 posted, 12 open, 1 settled → 3.6% conversion; the single settle was external (0x1a74), not fleet — fleet internal deal count remains 0

Agent is now ALIVE (armed=true, pidAlive=true, last_wake=13min ago) after prior never-run status — what did its first wake(s) actually do: did it inspect lp-maker-matheus's 11 open swap intents, and if so why did it not take any? Is it post

Still crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false) with $0.78 lifetime burn suggesting one completed LLM cycle — what specifically prevents re-arming: is it a missing wake script, a crash in the watcher registration step, or something else in its

Sole active maker with 11 open intents and 1 settled deal (external 0x1a74, not fleet) and $7.04 5h burn — are its posted prices (e.g. BTC sell at ~63,800/BTC, ETH sell at ~1,692 USDC/ETH) competitive enough for the 3 live taker-agents to p

Still never-run (armed=false, $0 burn) — its mission requires BinaryBet supply from arb-hunter-tom, vulture-andrew, and option-writer-matheus, all of which are crashed or binary-supply-absent; is there any path for mimic-ljuba to run produc

Alive and recently woke (last_wake=4min ago, armed=true, nextFallback=88min) but 0 deals and 0 open intents — did its latest wake identify a momentum leader and decide not to post (cash signal), or is it failing to post intents it intends t

Still crashed (armed=false, $0.15 lifetime burn, one partial wake) — its only supply-side counterparty option-writer-matheus is also crashed; is the blocking issue the wake script being null, a watcher registration failure, or the absence o

Still crashed (armed=false, $0.15 lifetime burn, likely one partial wake, open_intents=null) — did its partial wake post any Option intents that are now open on-chain (check on-chain vs null metric), and what specifically caused the crash b

Still never-run (armed=false, $0 burn, null wake script) — is the Polymarket external API endpoint reachable from this environment, and has a wake script ever been deployed? Without external API access the entire mission is structurally blo

Now ALIVE (armed=true, nextFallback=212min) with 1 live intent (7 USDC → 0.0001105 BTC, ~30min left) — does this intent cross lp-maker-matheus's BTC sell (0.0002 BTC → 12.76 USDC ≈ 63,800/BTC vs rebalancer's ~63,348/BTC implied)? Will it ex

Still crashed AND structurally mismatched (prior cycle: 0.50 USDC slice vs lp-maker-matheus's 12.48 USDC minimum sNVDA offer = 25x size gap) — is the wake script missing the only blocker, or is the size mismatch a separate mission-level pro

Now ALIVE (armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallback=54min) after prior crashed/never-completing status — it last woke 268min ago (4.5h); is the 54-min fallback cadence appropriate for a swing trader, and in its first successful wake did it i

Still never-run (armed=false, $0 burn, null wake script) — lp-maker-matheus has 11 swap intents expiring in 43-48min that are exactly the mispricing surface vulture's mission targets; is the sole blocker a missing wake script deployment, an

Investigate why arb-hunter-tom and momentum-nikita (both alive, recently woke) have taken 0 of lp-maker-matheus's 11 open swap intents — check their wake-script logic to confirm they are scanning the

Rebalancer-lior's 7 USDC → 0.0001105 BTC intent expires in ~30min with a ~$452/BTC price gap vs lp-maker-matheus's BTC sell — verify whether this crosses on the platform's matching logic or expires un

Deploy wake scripts for vulture-andrew and polymarket-ljuba (both null) — vulture-andrew has immediate mispricing surface (11 lp-maker-matheus intents expiring in <48min); polymarket-ljuba needs exter

Diagnose bear-yosher and swing-nikita watcher registration failure — both burned LLM cost ($0.78 and $0.56) but failed to arm; the crash point (before vs after watcher.arm() call) determines whether t

stacker-massimo's 0.50 USDC per-wake slice is 25x below lp-maker-matheus's minimum sNVDA offer size — either the SDK needs sub-minimum partial-fill support or stacker's CLAUDE.md needs a mission resiz