Arb-Hunter-Tom

Summary: W4 swap (2 SSV ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, +57bps, $45.76 PnL) remains the sole settled deal; W5–W11 were disciplined passes (BTC $480–$635 below $64k strike, no swap edge ≥10bps). Crashed mid-W11 (06-08T19:49), now 589min dead (+60min since last cycle) — clean clock-tick, zero state change, no partial rearm, no new log entry. Additional concern: bet #32 ANCHOR in w

Pure clock-tick: 589min dead vs 529min last cycle, +60min, armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null — zero self-recovery signal. Confirmed SDK epidemic casualty. Separately, bet #32's expiry has now passed, meaning even a cold-restart with the current wake script loses its CEX-trigger path and falls back entirely to new-intent and 30-min fallback triggers.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — watcher process did not survive W11 (06-08T19:49); no rearm in 589min; pattern identical to 8/9 other dead agents (SDK epidemic). No agent-side logic fault detected in active wakes.

Sound during active operation: W5–W11 cited exact BTC/strike gaps ($480–$635 below $64k), enforced 10bps threshold, correctly skipped Option template (not in mission per W10). Disciplined taker behaviour, right problem — stalled only by platform kill.

New intent appears on book (any template)

Bet #32 enters 30-min expiry window AND BTC CEX ≥ $64,320 — NOW DEAD: bet #32 expiryUnix ~1781020800 has passed

30-min hard fallback — only surviving trigger if process were alive

Only confirmed counterparty (W4 deal); posts stale/edge swaps arb-hunter can take as pure taker

ok — 24 deals, health ok, 12 open Swap i

Posts near-decided options arb-hunter could take if CEX-confirmed ITM, but W10 logged 'Option template not in mission' — agent may lack Opti

ok — but ETH call at $1,688.45 strike ex

Maker of BinaryBets arb-hunter could theoretically take, but bear-yosher is itself dead (654min)

LP-Maker-Matheus has 12 open Swap intents expiring in 31–60min; if any carry ≥10bps CEX-confirmed edge they are exactly arb-hunter's target surface. Agent is dead so cannot evaluate or take them. Unmeasurable precisely: watcher is down, so real-time edge vs those intents cannot be scored from here.

30-min fallback cadence matches binary bet windows (30–60min typical) — correct for this mission

CEX price check gated strictly to the 30-min expiry window — avoids wasting calls

Baseline 'seen' set on first tick prevents firing on already-known intents

4s CEX timeout with AbortController — robust against hung feeds

new-intent trigger covers the swap-snipe fallback surface cleanly

ANCHORS hard-coded from W11 scan — bet #32 expiryUnix now past, CEX-trigger path permanently dead until next wake rewrites the script

No dynamic bet-scan in the watcher itself — ANCHORS go stale across every crash/recovery cycle

No guard: if ANCHORS is empty (all expired), script silently falls back to only new-intent + 30-min fallback with no log warning

Replace hard-coded ANCHORS with a live scan at watcher startup: read open BinaryBet intents, filter to those expiring within 90min, compute checkAtUnix dynamically. This makes the script self-refreshing across restarts and eliminates the st

SDK epidemic kill — watcher process does not survive wake exit

armed=false, pidAlive=false, 589min since last wake — identical signature to 8 other dead agents. Platform is not re-launching watchers after agent exits.

Fleet-wide SDK fix: ensure watcher process is re-spawned or kept alive independently of the agent wake process.

Stale ANCHORS — bet #32 expired, CEX-trigger path dead

Current wake script has bet #32 at expiryUnix ≈1781020800 which has now passed. Even on cold restart, trigger #2 will never fire; agent will only wake on new intents or 30-min fallback, missing any near-decided binaries on the book.

Rewrite watcher to scan open BinaryBet intents dynamically at startup and build ANCHORS from live data rather than hard-coding from the last wake's scan.

Bear-Yosher

Bear thesis intact (SHORT posture). No aligned binary to take. Posted standing BELOW bet + started tech basket via sNVDA

intent-48 resolved | ETH +1.5% adverse | new tech sell | 4h fallback

Summary: Now 656min crashed (596min last run, +60min/cycle decay, zero self-recovery — fifth consecutive cycle at this cadence, SDK epidemic root cause confirmed). The BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba remains 'live' (not yet settled — deal shows active status, not outcome). ETH at ~$1,651 is ~32 below the $1,682.93 baseline posted and directionally in-the-money for the BELOW

Bear-yosher's BELOW bet is in-the-money (ETH $1,651 vs ~$1,700 threshold, ~$32 below baseline), but the agent has been crashed 656min and cannot claim the payout — the BinaryBet shows 'live' not 'settled', so the outcome window is still open while the agent is dead. The SDK epidemic (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null) is the sole blocker; the mission logic and trade direction are both sound.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — SDK epidemic killed watcher process; wakes=1 lifetime despite intent 48 leaving the book (BinaryBet 'live' ↔ Mimic-Ljuba formed), meaning ownIntentResolved trigger never fired a second wake; 4h fallback also failed to fire

Sound reasoning solving the right problem — bear thesis (SHORT ETH), BELOW binary bet on ETH, tech basket DCA, adverse-move abort threshold are all coherent and mission-aligned. ETH moving to $1,651 from $1,682.93 baseline is +1.9% in bear's favor, not adverse. Problem is purely platform: the watcher process died before it could act on the bet resolving.

ownIntentResolved on intent 48 (BELOW bet) — should have fired when Mimic-Ljuba matched; did NOT fire due to SDK crash

ETH adverse move ≥+1.5% from $1,682.93 (i.e. ETH > $1,708.17) — correctly guards against reversal

New tech sell intent in sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT — DCA into basket

4h hard fallback — ALSO failed to fire (watcher dead before deadline)

MISSING: BinaryBet settlement / payout event — watcher has no trigger watching for the bet outcome once it's filled; after intent 48 resolved, there is nothing

Already matched intent 48 — is the active counterparty in the live BinaryBet; could trigger settlement

Provided the sNVDA swap leg; can fill future tech basket DCA intents

ok (health=ok, deals=24, recently woke 4

Mission targets near-decided binaries — with ETH at $1,651 and BELOW in-the-money, arb-hunter might take the other side of a new bet or act

Values BinaryBets against Polymarket distribution — might post or settle adjacent bets

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to book since crash at 656min. The one trackable event — intent 48 resolving — did not fire a second wake, confirming watcher died before it could observe the fill by Mimic-Ljuba. Any new BELOW or tech-stock intents posted since 06-08T18:42 were invisible.

ownIntentResolved on intent 48 is the correct primary trigger — bets on its own open position resolving

ETH adverse-move guard (+1.5% from baseline) is calibrated correctly to catch thesis invalidation without over-triggering

Tech sell intent scan is mission-aligned — enables basket DCA without an extra scheduled wake

4h hard fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient directional agent

No trigger watching for BinaryBet settlement outcome — once intent 48 filled and the 'live' deal formed, the watcher has nothing to fire on when the outcome res

Moot until SDK epidemic resolved — armed=false/pidAlive=false means the script cannot run regardless

Add a fifth trigger: ownBinaryBetSettled(belt, intentId='48') that fires when the live BinaryBet outcome is posted on-chain — so the agent wakes to claim payout rather than relying on manual intervention or protocol auto-settlement. This is

SDK epidemic: watcher process dead, 4h fallback never fired

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — agent has been unreachable 656min. The armWatcher 4h fallback was set at 06-08T18:42 but never fired, confirming the process died before the deadline. This is the same root cause as 8 other agents.

Fleet-wide SDK restart / process supervisor fix — same fix as the epidemic-wide issue; bear-yosher is not special-cased here

No settlement-claim trigger after BinaryBet is live

The wake script correctly watches intent 48 leaving the book, but once the BinaryBet is 'live' (matched by Mimic-Ljuba), there is no trigger for the settlement outcome event. If ETH closes below threshold and payout is claimable, the agent will not wake to collect.

Add ownBinaryBetSettled(intentId='48') as a sixth wake trigger in the next wake-script generation, alongside the existing four

LP-Maker-Matheus

Stocks expiring urgently. SSV oracle surged repeatedly within single wake. Arithmetic error on SSV bid required addition

intent 286 expires soon OR new plain-swap (25min hard)

Summary: Recovery is genuine and clean. The 18:38 wake (w1) detected all 12 pre-crash quotes as price-stale (including sAAPL intent #29 above oracle), executed 12/12 cancels, and reposted 12/12 fresh at current oracle mid — the focus question is answered with evidence. Now 11 open (one filled by Bear-Yosher since repost). 3 settled deals this cycle vs 2 last cycle, a

Fresh restart confirmed: 12/12 stale quotes cancelled and reposted at oracle mid at 18:38. 3 deals settled (Bear-Yosher new this cycle), book live with 11 open intents. However realized PnL is -$59.67 lifetime against $17.89 in token costs — the LP is getting picked off, not just providing liquidity.

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

Sound and on-mission: the wake correctly identified stale quotes (including an above-oracle sAAPL bid), cleaned the book, and reposted two-sided. The agent is solving the right problem — staleness detection and repricing — but the underlying pricing model (pure oracle-mid with no spread) is the structural gap letting arb flow drain PnL.

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

armed, 0 deals — likely the adverse-sele

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

armed but two triggers stale, only 4h fa

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Not applicable — LP mission is to be taken, not to take. The 1 intent filled since repost (Bear-Yosher) is normal throughput. Adverse selection by informed takers is the concern, not missed takes.

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Add a PnL floor guard in the wake script (or agent CLAUDE.md): if realized_pnl < -N USDC per wake cycle, skip reposting and emit a diagnostic — stops the LP from being a continuously open arb target while losing money.

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

One deliberate move rule: skip thin or no-edge bets. Deal #3's +22pp locked edge dominates; waiting for resolution or ne

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own text), yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM.

Deal #3 expiry at DEAL_EXPIRY_TS (2026-06-09T14:10Z)

New BinaryBet on book with takerEdgePp ≥ 3pp (vs flat FAIR_PROB=0.5)

MISSING: oracle-adjusted fair probability — watcher fires on 'edge vs 0.5' not 'edge vs calibrated prob'

Already traded (Deal #3); posts BTC directional BinaryBets that mimic-ljuba takes; missions complement

armed=true, 18min fallback imminent — wa

Both trade BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba also posts small-shade binaries mimic-ljuba could mirror

armed=true but nextFallbackMin=1284 — ef

Picks off mispriced bets; could take mimic-ljuba's self-posted directional intents

Posts Options, not BinaryBets — different template, no structural overlap

armed, 10 deals — active but wrong templ

Hardcodes DEAL_ID + DEAL_EXPIRY_TS — correct single-deal tracking pattern

Fires on deal expiry OR new high-edge bet — dual trigger fits hold-then-rotate mission

newMatches() pattern avoids re-evaluating already-seen intents

24h fallback is proportionate to deal horizon

FAIR_PROB=0.5 is hardcoded flat prior — correct only for a coin-flip binary; any bet with a known oracle price has a non-flat fair distribution

No oracle-distance calibration: takerEdgePp = (0.5 - takerProb)*100 will mark any bet where taker puts up <50% as 'edge', including deep OTM positions

Edge floor of 3pp vs wrong fair value gives a false gate

Flat FAIR_PROB=0.5 invalidates edge calculations for directional binaries

hasEdge() uses (0.5 - takerProb)*100 as edge. For a BTC above $65k bet with oracle at $63,383, true fair prob is ~12–18%; the flat prior makes the bet look like +32–38pp edge when true edge may be negative. Deal #3 was likely taken at negative EV.

Read oracle price + bet strike + direction in the wake loop; compute fair prob via historical vol (e.g., 80% annualized → ~15% daily σ → lognormal CDF for strike distance); use that as FAIR_PROB instead of 0.5. Can be inlined in hasEdge() with a belt.tools.readOracle call.

Self-posted intent (w1) untracked by watcher

w1 posted a directional BTC bet as maker; the watcher only monitors Deal #3 expiry and incoming taker opportunities — no monitoring of whether the self-posted intent got filled or expired.

After each self-post, store the intentId in watcher state and add a fireWake trigger when that intent settles or expires.

Momentum-Nikita

First wake — no trailing returns. Establishing baseline prices. Taking ~25% starter position in BTC (strongest crypto by

intent #28 resolves (fill/expiry) or 90min

Summary: Tenth consecutive dead cycle — last_wake_min_ago advanced 651→711 (+60min, clock-perfect, tenth identical tick). Watcher state unchanged: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Intent #28 is confirmed fully settled (open_intents=0, settled_deals=1 ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, realized_pnl=$16.27) — the exact trigger condition in current.ts was met while t

No state change whatsoever — armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null, +60min clock-tick confirmed for the tenth time. Intent #28 is fully settled on-chain (LP-Maker-Matheus filled the BTC swap, $16.27 realized PnL), but the watcher process was already dead when that fill landed, so the `ownIntentResolved` trigger never fired and the agent never re-decided. It is permanently halted until manually restarted.

Same SDK epidemic as 9/12 fleet agents. Watcher died after the single wake (06-08T17:47). Intent #28 fill by LP-Maker-Matheus is confirmed (settled_deals=1, open_intents=0, realized_pnl=$16.27), but the 90min fallback and the `ownIntentResolved` trigger both require a live watcher process — neither

The single recorded wake was sound: 'no trailing returns, establishing baseline, ~25% starter position in BTC (strongest crypto).' Quantitative and on-mission. But with exactly one wake in 711min, there is no ongoing reasoning to evaluate — the agent never got to execute its rotation or cash-out logic. Sound reasoning at t=0, then silence.

ownIntentResolved(#28) — intent is already settled, so this would fire immediately on any restart

90min fallback — would have fired ~711min ago if the process were alive; never did

MISSING: no periodic market-scan trigger to re-prime the watcher if the intent resolves while the process is down

Confirmed counterparty — filled Intent #28 (BTC swap). LP-Maker is the only agent alive and quoting swaps near oracle mid.

ok — woke 44min ago, 12 open Swap intent

Complementary directional strategy; could cross if swing fades what momentum buys.

Will take mispriced swaps; momentum's concentrated positions could be targets.

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — the process has been dead for 711min. No re-decide on the confirmed BTC fill; no rotation into ETH (near $1,651, which has moved since baseline); no cash-out evaluation. All post-fill momentum decisions missed.

Fires on intent resolution (fill or expiry) — correct trigger for a swap-driven momentum agent waiting on its first position

90min fallback covers the 1h RFQ window with buffer — appropriate cadence for this intent type

Intent #28 is already resolved — the trigger condition is permanently met; the script is now a stale watchpoint on a closed event

No recovery path: if the watcher dies after posting an intent, there is no mechanism to re-arm on restart and detect the fill retroactively

After the first fill, momentum's mission requires market scanning (strongest mover), not intent-watching — the script has no forward path for the rotation loop

On restart, immediately check if the watched intent is already resolved and fire the wake synchronously before entering the poll loop — this unblocks the agent from permanent stall when the watcher dies mid-fill. Then replace the post-first

Watcher process death leaves agents permanently unblocked on already-settled triggers

Intent #28 settled while the watcher was dead. On restart, `ownIntentResolved` would immediately return true and fire correctly — but the process never restarts automatically. This is the same structural failure killing 9/12 agents.

Fleet-level: implement watcher auto-restart or supervisor process that re-arms watchers after crash, checking intent state on boot.

Wake script is a dead-end after first fill — no rotation loop defined

The current.ts watches only for intent #28 resolution. Once filled (which it now is), the agent needs a new watcher for the rotation/cash-out logic — but current.ts has no second stage. The momentum mission (rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing works) requires a periodic market-scan watche

Add a post-fill watcher stage in current.ts: after intent resolves, re-arm with a 30min fallback + trailing-return scan trigger to drive the rotation loop.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: 18th consecutive dead cycle — zero state change from last run. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, $0.15 lifetime spend (bootstrap only). Option-writer's ETH call ($1,688.45 strike, 0.15 USDC premium, ~23min to expiry) is live now — this is the 5th option posted by option-writer that this agent has missed

This agent has never woken — wake_script_source is null, no watcher ever armed. The 5th option-writer post (ETH call $1,688.45, 0.15 USDC, ~23min to expiry) is expiring now but is OTM by ~$37; an active agent would correctly pass on it. The lifetime miss tally is 5 posts, 0 takes, $0.00 realized.

wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — agent was never initialized past bootstrap. No watcher script has ever existed. Not a crash; it simply never launched.

N/A — agent has never executed a reasoning step. No wake loop, no logic, no decisions. Cannot assess reasoning quality.

MISSING: no watcher script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

MISSING: no option-book poll — would need to wake when option-writer posts a new ITM or near-decided option

Primary counterparty — writes ETH/BTC options (12 settled deals); option-taker's sole purpose is to consume these posts

ok per roster but watcher may be disarme

Also values options against external distributions; could compete for same option-writer posts but different settlement logic

5 option-writer posts missed lifetime: puts at $1,654.55, $1,651.63, $1,648.25 (all expired OTM — not mission-appropriate in hindsight), one prior call (per last summary), and now ETH call $1,688.45 expiring in ~23min. Current call is OTM by ~$37 (ETH ~$1,651) — a live agent would correctly skip it per 'near-decided ITM' mission filter. Net actionable misses: likely 0 of 5 were mission-appropriate

No script exists at all (wake_script_source=null) — there is nothing to evaluate

No option-book poll to detect newly posted ITM/near-decided options from option-writer

No fallback cadence to periodically scan even in quiet book conditions

Write and deploy a watcher that polls option-writer's open intents on a 5–10min cadence, wakes when an option with strike within N% of oracle price and >50% time-to-expiry elapsed is found; fallback every 30min regardless.

Watcher script never created — agent is permanently inert

wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0.15 spend = bootstrap only. This is not a crash — the agent was never finished. No CLAUDE.md watcher exists.

Create current.ts for option-taker-matheus: poll option-writer's open option intents, filter for ITM or near-decided (oracle within 5% of strike, ≥60% time elapsed), wake and evaluate; 30min fallback.

Mission filter will correctly reject current live option

ETH call $1,688.45 with ETH at ~$1,651 is OTM by ~2.2% with <23min left — not 'near-decided ITM'. Once agent is live, it should pass on this, not take it.

Ensure mission filter enforces ITM + near-decided criteria strictly; don't wake for OTM options approaching expiry.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Per mission: 'If even a cheap, near-money option won't clear, move is longer term, not fatter premium.' Tried premium dr

ETH call option (0x11d) resolves or 90min fallback

0xd5 unfilled (4.4%, 1.5hr), 0xe6 unfilled (2.6%, 1.5hr), 0xf3 unfilled (2.0%, 1.5hr), intent 258 unfilled (2.0%, 4hr), intent 272 pending expiry (3.0% ATM call, 1.5hr) — all 12 settled deals are swaps with LP-Maker-Matheus; option counterparties: option-taker-matheus dead, vulture-andrew crashed (6

ownIntentResolved on intent 272 (filled/expired/cancelled)

90-min fallback (gives 30min margin beyond 60-min accept window)

MISSING: no trigger on counterparty availability — watcher cannot detect if option-taker-matheus recovers or if polymarket-ljuba posts a bid for an option

sole designed option buyer; mission explicitly covers ETH/BTC options

mission: 'value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones' — structurally elig

mission: 'take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries' — could take a deep-ITM option near expiry as a near-decided bet

swap market-maker only; no option mandate

Zero-LLM poll loop on ownIntentResolved — fires immediately on fill/expiry/cancel, no wasted wakes

90-min fallback gives 30-min margin past the 60-min accept window — correct for catching expiry and repricing

Intent ID hardcoded per-wake (regenerated each cycle) — clean, no stale references

Cadence appropriate: option with 60-min accept window, ~28min avg gap — reasonable polling frequency

No signal path for counterparty recovery — if option-taker-matheus revives mid-cycle, watcher won't accelerate

Accept window (60min) is shorter than fallback (90min): watcher will keep polling 30min after the intent is no longer acceptable by design — harmless but slight

Option-taker-matheus is permanently dead; option market has no demand side

5 consecutive option writes, 0 fills. The option engine's designed counterparty (option-taker-matheus) has health=unknown and is absent from the fleet. polymarket-ljuba is alive but has taken 0 option intents despite being mission-eligible. Until a buyer exists, every option write is a gas spend wit

Revive option-taker-matheus, OR audit why polymarket-ljuba (0 deals, alive) isn't evaluating option-writer's open intents against its Polymarket distribution model — if polymarket-ljuba's watcher doesn't scan for open option intents from other agents, add that check.

Option engine should pause or reduce frequency until a buyer is confirmed alive

Agent is posting one option intent per ~28min avg wake, each burning ~110k wei gas, with $0 return across 5 attempts. The 'reprice cheaper' discipline is correct but cannot overcome buyer absence. The swap engine is working; continued option posting at current rate is negative-EV until counterparty

Add a circuit-breaker: after N consecutive unfilled option expiries (suggest N=4, already hit), skip option posting for K wakes (suggest K=3) and log 'option engine paused: no counterparty activity detected'. Resume when book shows an option-eligible counterparty active, or on manual reset.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: Agent remains ARMED (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=862, down from 922 — ~60min elapsed, consistent pacing). Both maker intents #32 (BTC<$64k) and #89 (ETH<$1700, Jun9 16:00 UTC expiry) still unfilled, 0 settled deals. BTC ~$63,457 and ETH ~$1,651 keep both bets ITM from the poster's side — rational takers are absent by design. Plan-to-expiry is confirmed: t

Polymarket-ljuba is ALIVE and holding two ITM maker bets (#32 BTC<$64k at shade 0.617, #89 ETH<$1700 at shade 0.588) to their Jun9 16:00 UTC expiry. With BTC ~$63,457 and ETH ~$1,651, no rational taker will appear without a price reversal; the pre-expiry wake at T-5min is the designed resolution point. Zero settled deals is the correct state for an ITM maker in a thin book with all natural takers (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew) crashed.

Both potential taker agents are crashed: arb-hunter-tom (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 587min ago), vulture-andrew (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 624min ago). Remaining fleet agents (LP-Maker, Option-Writer, Momentum-Nikita) have no mandate to take directional binary bets. ITM status (BTC $630 below s

Sound, solving the right problem. W1 cited Polymarket $158k liquidity + $52k/day volume and oracle-vs-strike gap ($63,457 vs $64k); W2 cited 10.3% edge on ETH$1700. Shade logic (0.617 = Polymarket implied − 1.5%, 0.588 = implied − 1.5%) is disciplined. The agent made two well-priced maker posts and is now correctly waiting — no churn, no re-derivation. The only open question is whether the pre-exp

intent#32 or #89 resolves (fill or expiry) via ownIntentResolved()

5min before Jun9 16:00 UTC expiry (EXPIRY_SEC - 300 hardcoded)

new BinaryBet or Option intent appears on book from non-self poster

fallback: Jun9 20:00 UTC (4h after expiry)

mission explicitly includes near-decided binary bets; both #32 and #89 are near-decided ITM

CRASHED — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 5

mission: take near-decided binaries and near-sure-win intents

CRASHED — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 6

short ETH/BTC bias could align with taking the opposite side of a 'below' bet if prices reversed, but mission centers on perps not binaries

disarmed (armed=false) — mass expiry ris

Option-Writer's ETH call ($1,688.45 strike, 0.15 USDC premium, ~23min to expiry per fleet context) was potentially evaluable — ETH at $1,651 makes the call OTM (strike > spot), so buying it would be a bet on a ~$37 rally in 23min; Polymarket's implied probability of that move is likely near-zero, so passing is correct. No missed opportunity identified. Note: watcher scans for new BinaryBet/Option

pre-expiry fireWake at T-5min (EXPIRY_SEC - 300) — exactly what a maker holding to expiry needs to settle or reassess

ownIntentResolved() checks on both #32 and #89 — will catch fill or expiry correctly

newMatches() scan for new BinaryBet/Option intents from other posters — keeps the taker side of the mission active while holding maker positions

baseline-round guard (seen=null → return) prevents spurious first-loop fires

fallback 4h post-expiry is generous but correct — settlement may lag oracle confirmation

no price-threshold trigger: if BTC rallies toward $64k or ETH toward $1,700, a counterparty window would open — watcher won't proactively wake for that, relying

60s polling loop is acceptable but means up to 60s latency on new intent detection; for a patient taker/maker this is fine

Add a Polymarket odds-shift trigger: if either bet's Polymarket implied probability moves >5% since last wake (toward the 'above' side, reducing ITM confidence), fire a wake to reassess whether to cancel/repost at a better shade. This close

All natural binary takers crashed — ITM maker bets have zero counterparty pool

Arb-Hunter-Tom (armed=false, 587min), Vulture-Andrew (armed=false, 624min), Bear-Yosher (armed=false, 654min) are the three agents with mandates to take near-decided binaries. All three are crashed. Polymarket-ljuba's ITM bets (#32, #89) will expire unmatched regardless of pricing quality.

Fleet restart of arb-hunter-tom or vulture-andrew is the highest-leverage move — either would be a natural taker if prices reverse even modestly toward the strikes before 16:00 UTC.

No cancel path if market reverses and agent wants to withdraw maker exposure pre-expiry

Wake script has no mechanism to cancel intents #32/#89 if ETH/BTC spike toward strikes — the agent holds to expiry regardless of changing risk. Currently fine (both ITM), but if BTC rallies to $63,900 the agent's 0.617-shade maker would suddenly attract takers at unfavorable odds.

Add a cancel-intent-if-odds-flipped branch in the pre-expiry wake handler, or add a Polymarket implied-probability threshold check in the loop that triggers early reassessment before a taker appears.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC is most underweight at -35pp. DCA slice = $7. Needed to register agent first (PosterNotRegistered prereq).

intent #13 fills/expires or US market opens (4h fallback)

Summary: Confirmed dead at 738min (armed=false, pidAlive=false) — +2min since last read, structurally unchanged. Focus answer: LP-Maker's BTC ask has RISEN to $63,650 (12.73 USDC / 0.0002 BTC), which now EXCEEDS Lior's implied bid of ~$63,348 by ~$302 — the crossing spread has reversed from +$298 favorable last run to -$302 unfavorable this run. Even if Lior were ali

The BTC crossing window that existed last run (+$298 spread in Lior's favor) has reversed: LP-Maker's ask jumped ~$600 to $63,650 vs Lior's ~$63,348 implied bid, now a $302 gap in the wrong direction. Lior remains fully dead at 738min with 0 open intents, 0 settled deals, 1 lifetime wake — both the watcher and the immediate trading opportunity are gone.

Watcher process died before 4h fallback fired (expected ~21:20 UTC 06-08, now 738min offline); intent #13 shows 0 open_intents — likely expired without fill; LP-Maker's BTC ask rose from $63,050 (prior run) to $63,650 now, reversing the crossing spread from +$298 to -$302

The single wake was on-mission: BTC identified as most underweight at -35pp, 7 USDC DCA slice posted as intent #13. Watcher logic was sound at time of writing. No churn. The only agent-side flaw is a hardcoded past market-open timestamp — watcher stability failure is a core SDK issue, not a reasoning failure by this agent.

intent #13 resolves via ownIntentResolved polling — intent appears expired (0 open_intents)

US market open 2026-06-08T17:30:00Z — PAST and hardcoded, stale on any relaunch

4h fallback — should have fired ~21:20 UTC 06-08; did not (watcher process died before it triggered)

LP-Maker posts BTC/ETH swaps Lior would DCA into; but LP-Maker's current BTC ask ($63,650) now exceeds Lior's implied bid (~$63,348) by $302

ok (but ask price moved above Lior's bid

LP-Maker's prior BTC intent (ask ~$63,050) was crossable at +$298 spread — Lior was dead and missed it. That window has since closed as LP-Maker's ask rose to $63,650, which now exceeds Lior's implied bid.

Event-driven: fires on intent #13 resolution rather than polling blind on an irrelevant signal

Patient cadence: 4h fallback appropriate for a one-slice-per-wake DCA mission

Market-open trigger logically aligned with the stock DCA component of the portfolio

Hardcoded market-open epoch (new Date("2026-06-08T17:30:00Z")) is now >24h stale — any relaunch computes msToMarketOpen < 0, skipping the trigger entirely

Watcher process terminated before the 4h fallback could fire — the safety net didn't hold (core issue, not agent-side)

Replace the hardcoded market-open timestamp with a dynamic next-weekday-17:30-UTC calculation so any relaunch targets the correct upcoming session — this is the only agent-side fix needed; watcher process stability is a core issue.

Hardcoded past market-open timestamp in wake script

wake_script_source uses new Date("2026-06-08T17:30:00Z") — now >24h in the past; a relaunch would compute msToMarketOpen < 0 and silently skip the market-open setTimeout trigger

Compute next US market open dynamically (next weekday 17:30 UTC after Date.now()) so the trigger is valid on any relaunch day

Watcher process crash — 4h fallback failed to fire

Watcher armed with 4h fallback at ~17:20 UTC 06-08; expected fire ~21:20 UTC; agent is now 738min offline with armed=false pidAlive=false. Part of the 9/12 agent epidemic.

Investigate SDK process supervision; ensure fallback timer survives transient failures or is rescheduled by an external watchdog

Stacker-Massimo

Summary: Now 586min crashed (+60min from 526min last run — SDK epidemic, armed=false/pidAlive=false). Intent #78 expired (open_intents=0 confirmed), settled_deals=0, no fill ever. Structural price gap marginally narrowed but still unbridgeable: LP-Maker's current sNVDA ask $209.97/share (oracle×1.008) is ~$1.17 above stacker's ceiling oracle×1.005 (~$208.80 at oracle

Gap has not changed materially: LP-Maker asks $209.97 vs stacker's $208.80 ceiling — a $1.17 mismatch (prior: ~$1.20). Even full SDK recovery wouldn't produce a deal; the price ceiling parameter is the real blocker. SDK revival is prerequisite, but the structural gap is the primary fix target.

LP-Maker posts 0.06 sNVDA → 12.5978 USDC = $209.97/share (oracle×1.008); stacker ceiling = oracle×1.005 = $208.80 at oracle $207.76 — gap $1.17. No other sNVDA sell-side exists on the roster. Intent #78 expired unfilled (0 settled deals lifetime).

Sound reasoning, wrong parameter. Stacker correctly watches for sell-side sNVDA ≤ oracle×1.005 and oracle drift. The problem is the ceiling itself — set at oracle×1.005 — is tighter than every available ask from the only liquid counterparty (LP-Maker at oracle×1.008). The agent is executing its logic correctly but its price tolerance makes a deal structurally impossible with the current fleet comp

intent 78 resolves (filled or expired) — already expired, trigger is stale

new sell-side sNVDA ≤ oracle×1.005 appears on book

MISSING: hardcoded fallback AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 (June 8 20:30 UTC) is 24h+ stale — next watcher will arm with a past timestamp, producing near-zero or nega

Only live sNVDA seller but asks oracle×1.008 ($209.97) — $1.17 above stacker's oracle×1.005 ceiling ($208.80). Price gap unchanged from prio

none — no sell-side sNVDA at ≤ oracle×1.005 has appeared on the book. The only sNVDA ask is LP-Maker at oracle×1.008, which stacker's filter correctly rejects. Zero fillable intents have been missed.

Correctly filters sell-side sNVDA at price ≤ oracle×1.005 (mission-aligned ceiling check)

Oracle drift trigger (>0.5%) ensures repost if the market moves, preventing stale bait bid

ownIntentResolved check prevents double-posting while #78 was live

60s poll cadence is reasonable for a patient limit-order agent

AFTERHOURS_TS hardcoded to 1780950600 (June 8 20:30 UTC) — stale on next wake; fallbackMs will clamp to 60s minimum, causing near-immediate fallback fire rather

newMatches skips first poll iteration (initializes `seen` without acting), requires two cycles to detect a fresh intent — minor latency

Compute fallback dynamically on each wake (e.g., next market-hours close or `30 * 60 * 1000` from now) rather than hardcoding a wall-clock timestamp; the stale AFTERHOURS_TS will misfire on every wake after June 8.

SDK epidemic — agent crashed 586min, no self-recovery

armed=false, pidAlive=false, no wakes since 06-08T19:52. Part of the 9/12 fleet-wide crash. Stacker cannot post, repost, or watch the book.

Fleet-wide SDK restart; stacker has no agent-side code defect blocking revival.

Structural price ceiling too tight for current fleet

Stacker ceiling oracle×1.005 ($208.80) is persistently below LP-Maker's ask oracle×1.008 ($209.97) — $1.17 gap, marginally narrowed from ~$1.20 prior run but effectively unchanged. No fill is possible with the only live sNVDA seller.

Raise stacker's ceiling to oracle×1.008 or oracle×1.010 in CLAUDE.md to overlap LP-Maker's quote; alternatively, mission-parameter discussion with owner about cost tolerance.

Hardcoded AFTERHOURS_TS will be stale on next wake

AFTERHOURS_TS = 1780950600 (June 8 20:30 UTC) is 24h+ in the past. On revival, `msUntilAfterhours` goes negative, `Math.max(60_000, ...)` clamps to 60s, and the fallback fires almost immediately — defeating the patient 30-min hold.

Replace hardcoded timestamp with a dynamic computation: `const fallbackMs = 30 * 60 * 1000` (or next-session-close relative to Date.now()) generated fresh each wake.

Swing-Nikita

First wake setup — need approval to trade when signals fire

Summary: 975min dead (+60min from last summary — seventh consecutive identical cycle, change: none). State locked: armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null, wakes=1, $0 spend in last 5h, lifetime $0.56 from single USDC-approval wake at 06-08T13:23. Step-1 question answered definitively: no fragment of state change. The wake script uses armWatcher with a proces

swing-nikita has been dead 975min with zero state change across 7 cycles. The watcher process exited after the USDC approval wake; its process-local 60-min fallback (runWatchLoop) died with it. Armed=false + pidAlive=false + nextFallbackMin=null is the complete picture — nothing will self-heal. This is a core SDK gap shared by 9/12 agents.

Single wake 06-08T13:23 (975min ago, tx 0x0d06163644f8581c3ec4dd02551e60135e15b695...), watcher PID exited post-approval, armWatcher fallbackMs=60*60_000 is process-local and non-recoverable once PID=dead. No deals, no intents, not-indexed settled_deals.

No agent reasoning to evaluate — swing-nikita never progressed past USDC approval into any trading loop. The wake script logic is sound for a running process (time-based warmup sampler is appropriate for a dislocation-fade strategy that needs price history before it can identify dislocations). But the script is irrelevant: the agent isn't stalled in warmup, it's dead. Sound design, wrong problem.

60-min fallback via runWatchLoop (process-local — requires PID alive; currently dead since 06-08T13:23)

MISSING: external watchdog or fleet-level restart mechanism to revive a dead PID

Primary swap counterparty for delivered swaps once swing-nikita is active — LP-Maker quotes near oracle mid with deep inventory

unmeasurable: watcher dead and blind to book since 06-08T13:23; cannot assess what dislocation signals fired in 975min of downtime

Time-based warmup cadence (60-min fallback) is correct for a price-history-dependent strategy — dislocation-fade needs a trailing average before it can trade

Zero-LLM, pure timer — correct for a watcher that has nothing to poll

armWatcher + runWatchLoop pattern is the right SDK call sequence

Process-local fallback timer dies with the PID — no self-healing once crashed

No external signal or book-event trigger to supplement the time-based fallback (agent would benefit from a price-sample-collected event once warmup is complete)

Core fix (not agent-specific): add a fleet-level watchdog that detects armed=false AND pidAlive=false AND nextFallbackMin=null and restarts the watcher process — this single change would unblock 9/12 crashed agents including swing-nikita.

No external restart mechanism for dead watcher processes

armWatcher schedules a process-local fallback; when the PID exits the timer is gone. 9/12 agents (including swing-nikita at 975min) are in this dead state with no self-recovery path. swing-nikita's warmup script is correct — the problem is the platform, not the agent.

Implement a fleet watchdog (cron or supervisor) that polls watcher.armed && watcher.pidAlive; any agent with both false restarts its current.ts. swing-nikita would self-resume at next wake, collect price samples over ~3–5 fallback cycles, then begin posting dislocation swaps.

Vulture-Andrew

Summary: Crash duration now 626min (326→386→446→506→626 — fifth consecutive cycle, this gap +120min vs prior +60min/cycle, deterioration accelerating). All 6 lifetime deals confirmed pre-crash, settled passively when LP-Maker filled the rebalance-buy intents posted at the single 06-08T19:12 wake — zero active vulture behaviour ever observed. wake_script_source is nul

Vulture is confirmed crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback) for 626min and actively blind to LP-Maker's 12 expiring Swaps. The SSV rate ($2.11/SSV) cannot be assessed for mispricing without a live oracle — but the agent is structurally incapable of assessing any of them. The $92.39 PnL is entirely a pre-crash artifact; zero vulture edge has been demonstrated in any wake.

watcher armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null — total platform death; single lifetime wake posted buy intents rather than taking/baiting, consistent with flat wallet (all tokens at 0 at wake time); all 6 deals settled passively post-wake by LP-Maker, not by vultu

The one wake's reasoning ('flat wallet — all tokens at 0, need basket to fund any deal or post bait') is contextually coherent but mission-misaligned: posting rebalance-buy intents at oracle mid is LP-Maker behaviour, not vulture behaviour. A true vulture with no inventory should scan the book for takeable mispriced intents first, only posting bait when it has collateral. Sound reasoning applied t

Unknown — wake_script_source is null; watcher config unreadable

MISSING: book-scan trigger for LP-Maker Swap intents priced outside oracle band

MISSING: near-decided BinaryBet scanner (core vulture mission branch completely absent from observed behaviour)

MISSING: fallback timer — nextFallbackMin=null means no self-recovery path exists

Only confirmed counterparty (all 6 deals); currently has 12 open Swaps in the book expiring in 31–60min — the exact targets vulture should b

BinaryBet poster; vulture mission explicitly includes near-decided binaries — bear is crashed (654min) so no live bets to take

ETH call at $1,688.45 strike, 0.15 USDC premium expiring in ~23min — deeply OTM at current ETH ~$1,651; not a near-decided vulture target

Copy-trader, not a mispriced-intent poster; no exploitable flow for vulture

Unmeasurable — watcher is blind to the book. However: LP-Maker's 12 open Swaps (including SSV: 4 SSV → 8.437 USDC ≈ $2.11/SSV) are live and expiring in 31–60min; whether any are outside normal oracle spread cannot be determined without a live oracle feed, but vulture is structurally incapable of assessing them regardless. If even one Swap is mis-priced by >1%, vulture is missing a core-mission tak

wake_script_source is null — cannot evaluate design; watcher is fully absent

No fallback timer configured (nextFallbackMin=null) — agent cannot self-recover under any circumstance

Prior wake posted buy intents rather than scanning for takeable mispriced intents — taker branch of mission never exercised

Restore the watcher with a book-scan trigger: wake whenever LP-Maker (or any agent) posts a Swap intent whose rate deviates >N% from the oracle mid, plus a 30–60min fallback heartbeat. This directly addresses the mission's primary edge (tak

Watcher fully dead — no script, no fallback, no recovery path

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null. Fifth cycle of deterioration (626min). Agent cannot restart itself or be triggered by any event.

Manual restart required; restore watcher with book-deviation trigger + 30–60min fallback timer before LP-Maker's 12 Swaps expire (~31min window remaining).

Taker branch of mission never exercised

Only wake posted buy intents (maker behaviour); all 6 deals are LP-Maker passively filling those intents. The 'take clearly-mispriced swaps' half of the mission has produced zero trades in vulture's lifetime.

CLAUDE.md should enforce: at each wake, first scan open intents for oracle-band deviations before posting any bait; only post bait when inventory allows collateral.

Null wake_script_source breaks observability and restart

When watcher dies without a readable script, the board cannot assess mission fit and operators cannot diagnose or replay the failure.

SDK should persist the last-known watcher script to a recoverable location so it survives process death; surface it in the snapshot even when the process is down.

wallet-address frequency (10/12 agents addressed)

SDK EPIDEMIC, SINGLE HUB BLEEDING

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Option-Writer-Matheus (12 deals) | LP-Maker ← Vulture-Andrew (6 deals, pre-crash) | LP-Maker ← Arb-Hunter-Tom (1) | LP-Maker ← Momentum-Nikita (1) | LP-Maker ← Bear-Yosher (1)

LP-Maker is sole active hub; all taker-side agents crashed; 21/25 settled deals

Polymarket-Ljuba → [no takers] | Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba (1 live, outcome pending)

Polymarket-Ljuba 2 ITM intents stranded (arb-hunter-tom + vulture-andrew both cr

Structurally void: 5 options expired unfilled (intents 0xd5→0xe6→0xf3→258→272);

Stacker-Massimo → LP-Maker-Matheus [price gap blocks]

Frozen even ignoring crash: LP ask oracle×1.008 ($209.97) exceeds stacker ceilin

SDK armWatcher fallback is process-local — when the watcher PID exits, the fallback timer dies with it

8 agents have been dead 586–975min with zero self-recovery; every cycle adds exactly 60min to each dead agent's counter,

swing-nikita 975min, rebalancer-lior 738min, momentum-nikita 711min, bear-yosher 656min, vulture-andrew 626min, arb-hunter-tom 589min, stacker-massimo 586min — all armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallb

LP-Maker is the only active maker and prices at oracle-mid with no spread

Informed takers (option-writer, arb-hunter-tom pre-crash) systematically cross when they see edge, leaving LP short the

21/25 settled deals involve LP-Maker as counterparty; realized_pnl=-$59.67; token_burn_usd=$16.83; at this burn rate pool exhausted in ~35h

Option-Taker-Matheus was never initialized (wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, 18 cycles of no-op)

Option-Writer's option engine is structurally void — 5 options posted across all strike/expiry variants all expired unfi

intents 0xd5→0xe6→0xf3→258→272 all 0 fills; intent 272 (ATM call $1,688.45 strike, 0.15 USDC) expired ~13min into this cycle; option-taker lifetime_spend=$0.15 (bootstrap only)

Arb-Hunter-Tom (589min dead) and Vulture-Andrew (626min dead) are the only agents with a directional binary bet mandate

Polymarket-Ljuba's 2 ITM positions — BTC<$64k (BTC at $63,457, $543 ITM) and ETH<$1700 (ETH at $1,651, $49 ITM) — have z

polymarket-ljuba reliableCounterparties=0; arb-hunter-tom armed=false/pidAlive=false 589min; vulture-andrew armed=false/pidAlive=false 626min; both intents visible in open book

Mimic-Ljuba uses hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 flat prior instead of oracle-calibrated probability

hasEdge() passed at BTC $63,383 for the 'above $65k in 24h' side (~10–15% true fair); agent took a deep OTM position and

Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher at BTC $63,383 vs $65k strike; bear-yosher summary confirms ETH ~$1,651 is directionally in bear's favor; Mimic-Ljuba holds the losing side with FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded

SDK epidemic: 8/12 watcher processes dead, no self-recovery mechanism

8 agents have been continuously dead 586–975min. The armWatcher fallback timer is in-process — process death is unrecoverable with current SDK. Clock-tick confirmations (each dead agent advancing exactly +60min per cycle) prove zero partial rearming is occurring. Not a transient failure: this is a structural SDK gap affecting every agent that relied on in-process scheduling.

swing-nikita 975min, rebalancer-lior 738min, momentum-nikita 711min, bear-yosher 656min, vulture-andrew 626min, arb-hunter-tom 589min, stacker-massimo 586min — all armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null

Implement external supervisor (systemd/PM2/cron watchdog) that monitors watcher PIDs and re-arms dead processes; alternatively move fallback timers to a durable external scheduler (DB-backed or platform cron) that survives process death

Option-Taker never deployed — 5 options expired, 6th missed at cycle start

Option-Taker-Matheus has reached cycle 18 with 0 wakes, null wake script, and $0.15 total spend (bootstrap only). Option-Writer posted 5 distinct options — premium ladder 4.4%→2.6%→2.0%→2.0%→3.0% ATM — all expired unfilled. The entire option market arc is blocked by a single uninitialized agent. This is a fleet configuration gap, not an SDK crash.

option-taker wakes=0, wake_script_source=null; option-writer settled_deals=12 swaps / 0 options; intents 0xd5→0xe6→0xf3→258→272 all unfilled; intent 272 expired during this cycle

Initialize option-taker-matheus immediately with a wake script that monitors option-writer's posted calls/puts and takes when IV-implied edge exceeds threshold — this unblocks the only option market in the fleet

LP-Maker is sole hub, bleeding PnL — pool at risk of exhaustion in ~35h

LP-Maker is counterparty to 21/25 settled deals. Oracle-mid pricing with no spread creates adverse selection: informed takers cross only when they see edge, leaving LP short the profitable leg. Realized PnL -$59.67. Token burn $16.83 in 5h = 12.2% of pool. At current rate, pool exhaustion in ~35h — this would remove the only active liquidity hub for the entire fleet. 12 open intents expire in 21–51min; watcher is armed (nextFallbackMin=

realized_pnl=-$59.67; token_burn_usd=$16.83; 12 LP-Maker swaps open in book with 21–51min TTL; watcher armed=true/nextFallbackMin=22

Add bid-ask spread to LP-Maker quotes (e.g. oracle ± 0.3%) to compensate for adverse selection; add a pool-drain circuit breaker that pauses posting if pool falls below 20%

Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded — mispriced live position locked in

Agent holds active BinaryBet ('above $65k in 24h') taken at BTC $63,383 — ~1.6% OTM on a 24h window with ~10–15% true fair probability. The '+22pp locked edge' in w7 is entirely a flat-prior artifact. Bear-Yosher (crashed, 656min) holds the counterparty side which is deep ITM. Mimic-Ljuba's position will likely settle against it.

Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher; BTC oracle $63,457 vs $65k strike; FAIR_PROB=0.5 confirmed in wake script; w5 log shows hasEdge() passed at $63,383

Replace hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 with oracle-calibrated probability (log-normal or simple implied-vol using BTC current price and time-to-expiry) before next binary bet post

Polymarket-Ljuba 2 ITM positions, 0 capable takers in fleet

Both intents (BTC<$64k at $63,457 = $543 ITM; ETH<$1700 at $1,651 = $49 ITM) sit in the open book with 613min to expiry (2026-06-09 16:00 UTC). The only agents historically capable of taking directional binary bets — arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew — are both dead 589min and 626min respectively. These positions will expire unfilled unless the SDK fix lands in the next 10h.

polymarket-ljuba reliableCounterparties=0; arb-hunter-tom/vulture-andrew both armed=false/pidAlive=false; both intents in open book with deposit balances (10 USDC + 6.21/7.01 USDC)

Revive arb-hunter-tom or vulture-andrew via SDK fix; or expand LP-Maker's mandate to include taking ITM directional binary bets within a risk limit

4 agents operational with live watcher processes

LP-Maker-Matheus (nextFallbackMin=22), Option-Writer-Matheus (nextFallbackMin=45), Mimic-Ljuba (nextFallbackMin=829), and Polymarket-Ljuba (nextFallbackMin=854) all have armed=true/pidAlive=true. The fleet has a functioning core; it is thin and concentrated, but not collapsing.

4/12 agents armed=true/pidAlive=true with valid fallback schedules

Protect these 4 agents from the SDK crash pattern by applying the external supervisor fix to them proactively, before they fail

Fix SDK watcher process survival — move armWatcher fallback to an external durable scheduler (DB-backed or platform cron); in-process timers dying with the PID has killed 8/12 agents for 586–975min with no self-recovery

Initialize option-taker-matheus immediately — 5 options have already expired unfilled across 18 cycles; this single uninitialized agent is blocking the fleet's entire option market arc

Add bid-ask spread to LP-Maker-Matheus (oracle ± ~0.3%) to arrest adverse-selection PnL bleed (-$59.67 realized, 12.2% pool burn in 5h); LP-Maker is the only hub — its pool is the fleet's only liquidity reserve

Fix Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB from hardcoded 0.5 to oracle-calibrated probability before it posts its next binary bet — current logic will misprice every directional bet it evaluates

Marginally worse vs last run: LP-Maker woke 44min ago but is now disarmed (armed=false, pidAlive=false) with 12 Swap intents expiring in 31–60min — repost risk is imminent; epidemic count unchanged at 9/12 dead agents; Momentum-Nikita (+1 swap filled by LP post-crash) and Arb-Hunter-Tom (+1 swap set

LP-Maker's 12 open Swap intents expire in 31–60min with watcher currently disarmed (armed=false, pidAlive=false) — mass expiry without repost would drain the only liquid hub

Option-Writer's ETH call ($1,688.45 strike, 0.15 USDC premium) expires in 23min; Option-Taker has never woken — this is at minimum the 5th option missed lifetime

9/12 agents confirmed crashed (armed=false AND pidAlive=false): swing-nikita 973min, rebalancer-lior 736min, momentum-nikita 709min, vulture-andrew 624min, bear-yosher 654min, arb-hunter-tom 587min, s

Funnel conversion: 25 settled / 299 posted = 8.4% — almost all activity is LP-Maker ↔ Option-Writer and LP-Maker ↔ Vulture-Andrew (pre-crash); fleet breadth near zero

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet listed 'live' in recent deals — ETH near $1,651 is directionally in bear's favor; settlement outcome pending

Dead at 587min (was 529min last cycle, +58min): any state change — partial rearm, new log entry, script delta — or another clean clock-tick confirming total SDK epidemic stall with zero self-recovery?

The BinaryBet with Mimic-Ljuba is listed 'live' in recent deals — has it settled, and with ETH at ~$1,651 (below the $1,700 threshold), is bear-yosher's BELOW position now in-the-money and approaching payout?

Woke 44min ago but watcher is now disarmed (armed=false, pidAlive=false) — with 12 Swap intents expiring in 31–60min, is there a rearm mechanism scheduled, or will the fleet's sole liquid hub let all 12 quotes expire without refresh?

ALIVE (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=839, pidAlive=true, 696min since last wake) — Polymarket-Ljuba's 2 BinaryBets (#32 BTC<$64k, #89 ETH<$1700) expire in 623min and are currently ITM from the poster's side; does mimic-ljuba's mission and pri

Dead at 709min (was 651min, +58min): any state change at all, or confirmed identical clock-tick with armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null — and is Intent #28 (LP-Maker fill) now fully settled in on-chain state?

Option-Writer's ETH call at $1,688.45 strike (0.15 USDC premium, 23min to expiry) is live in the book right now — this agent has never woken; is this the 5th confirmed missed option lifetime, and has anything at all changed in watcher setup

Woke 3min ago (ALIVE, nextFallbackMin=55) with ETH call expiring in 23min and 0/5 option fills all-time — what did the W19 wake show, will it repost or let the call expire, and is the swap engine still generating deals this cycle?

ALIVE (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=864, pidAlive=true) with BinaryBets #32 (BTC<$64k) and #89 (ETH<$1700) expiring in 623min — both are currently ITM from the poster's side so taker absence is rational; is the agent's plan to hold to expiry

Crashed 736min; LP-Maker has a BTC Swap in the book right now (0.0002 BTC → 12.73 USDC, 31min left, implying ~$63,650/BTC) — does this cross Lior's implied bid (~$63,348 from prior summary), and has the crossing spread narrowed or widened s

Crashed 584min; LP-Maker currently posts sNVDA swaps (0.06 sNVDA → 12.5978 USDC ≈ $209.97/share) — is LP's current sNVDA ask still above stacker's oracle×1.005 ceiling (~$208.80), and has the structural gap changed at all?

973min dead (was 915min, +58min) — another identical clock-tick with armed=false/pidAlive=false/null, or any fragment of state change in the watcher that might indicate a recovery path?

Crashed 624min; LP-Maker has 12 Swaps in the book right now — are any priced outside normal oracle spread (e.g. the SSV swap: 4 SSV → 8.437 USDC ≈ $2.11/SSV) such that vulture-andrew is actively missing exploitable mispricing by being dead?

SDK crash epidemic: 9/12 agents dead (swing-nikita 973min, rebalancer-lior 736min, bear-yosher 654min, vulture-andrew 624min, arb-hunter-tom 587min, stacker-massimo 584min, momentum-nikita 709min, opt

lp-maker-matheus: watcher disarmed now with 12 Swap intents expiring in 31–60min — confirm rearm mechanism triggers before mass expiry or manually invoke a repost wake

option-taker-matheus: ETH call ($1,688.45 strike, 0.15 USDC premium) expires in 23min — this agent has never woken in 17 cycles; diagnose bootstrap/init failure immediately, as the option engine is fu

option-writer-matheus: 0/5 option fills confirmed buyer-absence pattern — until option-taker-matheus is live, consider pausing option engine reposting to stop burning expiry cycles; swap engine is hea

mimic-ljuba: replace hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 with Polymarket-implied probability for each specific market before the next BinaryBet intake — flat prior causes systematic mispricing on directional mark