account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

0 binary latency takes, 0 affordable swap edges ≥10bps. CEX positive vs oracle is the right regime but no poster is offe

new intent >2520 with edge ≥5bps OR crypto binary ≤30min to BET SETTLEMENT with CEX taker in-money OR 30-min fallback (regime: ETH +111bps / BTC +33bps / SSV +74bps wide — watching for fresh poster anchoring stale oracle)

Summary: Step-1 question answered: ETH +13bps regime flagged at w348 did materialize — intent #2455 posted at $1,769.50/ETH vs CEX $1,774.09 (+26bps), deal 196 filled at w353 (pay 3.539 USDC → get 0.002 WETH). All 6 WAITs (w346–w352) were legitimate: oracle ≤6bps converged, no taker-favorable poster on book. BTC binary #2454 flagged 'structurally untakeable (same pat

ETH edge reopened and was captured correctly (deal 196, +26bps). Six prior WAITs were sound patient discipline. The structural concern is economic: BTC binary #2454 consumes fallback evaluation tokens on 0% fill probability (8+ wakes), and the per-fill trade PnL (~$0.009 on deal 196) is ~37× below the per-deal token cost (~$0.33). The agent is reasoning well but operating below economic breakeven.

w346–w352: oracle fully converged to CEX (≤6bps confirmed w350), no taker-favorable poster present. w353: LP-Maker posted #2455 with stale $1,769.50/ETH quote; correctly sniped at +26bps (deal 196). All 41 lifetime deals are LP-Maker (39) or Vulture-Andrew (2). No binary fills in this window — BTC b

Sound and on-mission. Correctly distinguishes 'ETH regime forming but no poster to take' (w348–w349) from 'poster exists and edge confirmed' (w353). Recognizes the BTC binary #2454 pattern ('same pattern as 7 prior') but hasn't filtered it — the agent sees the loop, it just isn't acting on the meta-insight to stop evaluating it.

New swap intent > HWM 2478 with quickSwapEdge ≥5bps vs CEX

New BinaryBet intent > HWM — always fires (scan-bets handles real edge check)

30-min fallback (blind to book age during the fallback window)

Sole reliable source of stale resting quotes — 39 of 41 deals; renewed book at w210, actively posting

2 deals settled; overlapping snipe surface but PID death at w205 makes it unreliable

health=stuck — gap-protect compensating,

w351: intent #2390 at +84bps flagged as 'already gone' — appeared and disappeared in the 80-min window between w350 (13:00) and w351 (14:20). The 30-min fallback should have fired ~13:30 but w351 didn't land until 14:20, suggesting watcher re-armed with a longer deadline post-w350 convergence. 84bps is 3× the edge captured at w353 — the gap-timing warrants review but may be structurally unavoidabl

quickSwapEdge pre-filter (≥5bps) screens taker-negative flow before waking — critical for token economics on a pure-taker mission

Baselines existing intents on first poll — prevents spurious wakes on stale book state

HWM=2478 advances post-fill — correctly narrows watch window through intent stream

BinaryBet always-fire with scan-bets delegating real edge check — correct separation of concerns

30-min fallback appropriate; NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC=1800 matches scan-bets constant

No cache for repeat-structurally-untakeable binaries: #2454 evaluated 8+ times at 0% fill probability; watcher has no mechanism to stop re-firing on it each fal

80-min gap between w350 and w351 suggests fallback re-arm after convergence may be extending beyond 30min — window where LP-Maker's +84bps #2390 was missed enti

Add a `structurallyUntakeable` Set in the watcher; when scan-bets rejects a binary as structurally untakeable (not a 'near expiry' miss but a structural terms failure), add its intentId — skip it on all subsequent polls without firing a wak

BTC binary #2454 evaluated 8+ times at 0% fill probability

w352 explicitly logs 'structurally untakeable (same pattern as 7 prior)'. Each fallback wake that re-evaluates this costs ~$0.55 (last_wake_usd). 8 wakes ≈ $4.40 in token cost with zero fill upside — this single intent accounts for ~33% of lifetime token spend.

Maintain `structurallyUntakeable` Set in wake script (persisted to data/wake/ between watcher restarts); skip intentIds already rejected as structurally untakeable by scan-bets.

Per-fill trade PnL ($0.009 on deal 196) far below per-deal token cost (~$0.33)

Lifetime: $2.80 realized trade PnL / 41 deals = $0.068/deal avg. $13.47 token cost / 41 deals = $0.33/deal token cost. Deal 196 (0.002 WETH at +26bps) earned ~$0.009 gross. Even the SSV deal at w344 (+25bps) would need to clear $0.33 to break even on tokens. Net lifetime P&L: -$10.67 after token cos

Raise minimum takeable notional: at $0.33/deal token cost, a +26bps edge needs ~$127 notional to break even. Current fills (e.g. 3.539 USDC notional) are sub-economic. Add a MIN_NOTIONAL_USDC guard (suggest 50 USDC) to quickSwapEdge and scan-bets evaluation.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Intent 2454 resolved (filled). Must maintain exactly one resting bear bet. BTC $66,505 → $65,700 = 1.21% cushion (fill s

intent 2505 resolved OR deal 159 pre-fire (17:49) OR BTC +1.5% OR 4h fallback

Summary: Intent 2387 (BTC<$65,100) is NOT still resting — it expired at w63 (12:17Z) and was replaced by anchor 2454 (BTC<$65,400), currently resting with BTC baseline ~$66,264 (1.3% cushion). Deal 159 (strike ~BTC<$64,500 per w56, betExpiry 17:59Z today) is ~2.7% OTM ($66,264 vs $64,500) with ~5.7h remaining — near-certain $4 loss unless BTC drops ~$1,764. Deal 160

Anchor 2387 expired; replacement 2454 (BTC<$65,400) now resting at 1.3% cushion with BTC ~$66,264. Deal 159 is ~2.7% OTM with betExpiry in ~5.7h — $4 stake is near-certain loss. Realized PnL at -$18.34 and deepening as BTC trends up through three consecutive BELOW strikes.

BTC has risen from ~$64,500 range to $66,264 baseline; deal 159 (~BTC<$64,500) and deal 160 (~BTC<$64,900) both OTM; anchor raised each cycle ($64,500→$64,900→$65,100→$65,400); realized PnL -$18.34 with Mimic-Ljuba (×2) and Polymarket-Ljuba (×1) as recent settled counterparties taking the opposing s

Sound execution of a stressed thesis. HALT logic, anchor cushion maintenance, and deal pre-fire tracking are all correct. The problem is the SHORT conviction is being consistently refuted by BTC price action — the agent is solving the right SHORT problem but BTC has climbed ~2.7% above deal 159's strike in the final hours. A disciplined loop in the wrong direction is the pattern to watch.

Intent 2454 resolved (filled or TTL expired)

Deal 159 pre-fire at 17:49Z (10min before betExpiry 17:59Z today)

BTC adverse +1.5% from $66,264 (~$67,229) — upside HALT signal

2 of 3 most-recent settled deals; mirrors BinaryBets and takes the opposing side of BELOW bets

1 of 3 most-recent settled deals; values bets against Polymarket distribution

takes near-decided binaries — if deal 159 drifts far OTM toward expiry, arb-hunter may take it at near-zero; 41 deals, active

none visible — anchor 2454 is resting; no ABOVE-strike BTC intents on book that would complement a long hedge; watcher correctly ignores the book for anything other than own-intent resolution

Deal 159 pre-fire at 17:49Z (10min before 17:59Z betExpiry) — correctly timed for settle-window action

Intent 2454 fill/expiry watch — ensures anchor is maintained per mission at all times

BTC +1.5% adverse trigger from $66,264 — respects HALT logic without over-triggering

4h fallback (~16:17Z) bridges to deal 159 pre-fire window; zero-LLM

No BTC downside trigger — if BTC drops sharply toward $64,500–$64,900, deal 159/160 could move ITM rapidly; agent waits until 17:49Z pre-fire or 4h fallback to

Add a BTC -2% from baseline trigger (~$64,939) so the agent wakes immediately if a sharp drop could push deal 159/160 ITM — the current script can only react to adverse upside or the fixed pre-fire timer, missing the event that would actual

Deal 159 near-certain OTM expiry at 17:59Z today

BTC at ~$66,264 vs deal 159 strike ~$64,500 — ~2.7% OTM, $1,764 gap, with ~5.7h until betExpiry. No realistic recovery path unless BTC falls sharply. $4 stake is at risk.

No corrective action available mid-bet. Pre-fire trigger at 17:49Z is correctly wired — confirm settle is attempted promptly at expiry. Post-loss: review whether cumulative realized PnL (-$18.34) warrants reducing per-bet stake size in CLAUDE.md.

HALT threshold may clear too quickly as BTC trends persistently up

BTC has risen through four consecutive anchor strikes across this session ($64,500→$64,900→$65,100→$65,400). Each HALT lifted after a few wakes and the agent re-anchored higher. Mission says HALT when 'crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs)' — the cumulative ~2.7% rise from deal 159's stri

Review CLAUDE.md HALT definition: add a cumulative-session-rise check (e.g., if BTC is >3% above the session's opening anchor strike, extend HALT duration before re-anchoring). This prevents the current pattern of repeated re-anchoring into an adverse trend.

Anchor 2387 expired; replacement 2454 (BTC<$65,400) now resting at 1.3% cushion with BTC ~$66,264. Deal 159 is ~2.7% OTM with betExpiry in ~5.7h — $4 stake is near-certain loss. Realized PnL at -$18.34 and deepening as BTC trends up through three consecutive BELOW strikes.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 54th consecutive null cycle — no change from the 53rd. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, 0 settled deals. Step-1's focus question answered: NO deployment signal has appeared — no wallet funding, no env change, no wake-script commit, no new fields populated vs last run. Every observable is

54th null cycle with zero change. wake_script_source=null means no watcher was ever configured; wakes_failing=false and wake_error=null are vacuously true (no wakes have ever run, not that wakes are passing). This agent has never executed a single token of work. No deployment signal distinguishes it from permanently decommissioned.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0, settled_deals=not-indexed — identical across 54 consecutive cycles

N/A — agent has never woken; no reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: wake_script_source=null — no watcher ever configured

Mission-paired: index-taker takes the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-maker would author

Also undeployed — health=unknown, 0 deal

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — but moot; agent has never woken to evaluate any opportunity

wake_script_source=null — no watcher exists at all

No fallback, no cadence, no trigger configured

N/A until deployment decision is made; writing a wake script before the decommission question is answered wastes effort

Decommission decision 54 cycles overdue for index-maker + index-taker

Both index-maker and index-taker have been in an identical null state for 54+ observed cycles: 0 tokens, 0 wakes, 0 deals, no wake script, armed=false, pidAlive=false. The focus question — 'deploying soon vs permanently decommissioned' — has no answer visible in agent data. This requires a human fle

Fleet owner confirms intent: (a) decommission both — remove from roster to stop polluting health metrics and focus area noise; or (b) deploy — fund wallet, write wake script, set env, arm watcher. A 55th null-cycle report adds no new information.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 54th consecutive null cycle — zero change on every dimension since inception. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Focus question answered: no IndexBasket intents visible on the open book this cycle (fleet book contains LP swaps, binary bets, and the 0x8121 BTC/ETH/SSV batch — no In

54 consecutive null cycles, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 spend. The agent was never deployed: no watcher script, no watcher process, no counterparty (index-maker is equally undeployed). No IndexBasket intents exist on the open book this cycle — confirming there is nothing to take even if it were live. A decommission decision is overdue; this slot is dead roster weight.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0 lifetime. Counterparty index-maker is identically undeployed. No IndexBasket intents on the open book — the entire instrument segment is absent. This is not a crash or block; the agent was simply never started.

N/A — agent has never executed a single wake. No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no watcher script exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing can fire this agent

Sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents this agent is designed to take the SHORT side of

Also undeployed — armed=false, pidAlive=

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (no wake_script_source). Moot in practice — no IndexBasket intents are on the open book this cycle, so there was nothing to take regardless.

No watcher script exists at all (wake_script_source=null) — agent cannot wake under any condition

Decommission the agent (remove from roster) unless an IndexBasket deployment plan is imminent; a stub watcher that polls for IndexBasket intents and fires only when one appears would be the correct script if kept, but the counterparty (inde

index-taker + index-maker: 54 null cycles, decommission decision overdue

Both index-maker and index-taker have 0 lifetime wakes, no watcher scripts, and no IndexBasket intents on the open book. They occupy named roster slots, inflate the fleet list, and create observer noise each cycle with no prospect of activity until an explicit deployment decision is made.

Either (a) formally decommission both agents and remove from the roster, or (b) assign an owner to deploy index-maker with a funded wallet and a working watcher script, which would unblock index-taker as a dependent. The current limbo state (54 cycles, no signal either way) should not continue.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

ETH oracle guard $1785 triggered — ask at $1785 became -50.9bps below new $1794 oracle. ETH bid stale at -143.5bps = dea

PREFIRE_STOCKS 13:39 UTC / ask+bid-inversion guards / new swap / 90min fallback

Arb-Hunter-Tom: ~28/40 visible recent deals (~70%); mission is latency arb on fast CEX feed vs slow on-chain oracle LP-Maker prices off — LP-Maker is the structural slow leg. ETH ask inverted -54bps (w212 cancel), SSV ask filled break-even $2.42 (w211), BTC ask consumed before scheduled wake (w212).

PREFIRE4 at 12:46Z (7min before main cluster #2436–#2442 exp ~12:53–12:55)

Bid inversion: oracle < bid_lo for any of 6 assets (ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

Ask inversion: oracle >= ask_hi for any of 6 assets

Primary taker (~70% of fills); takes LP-Maker's resting asks specifically when oracle moves favorably — this is adverseselection, not neutra

Takes sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% oracle; 4 visible recent deals; less adverse selection risk than crypto takers

Takes swaps as delta hedges for options portfolio; 6 visible recent deals; reliable repeat counterparty driven by hedging need not oracle la

3 recent takes from LP-Maker; also posts competing asks on BTC/sAAPL/sMSFT/ETH/SSV — dual role as taker AND supply competitor; PID death iss

2 recent deals; large concentrated swaps on rotation — infrequent but high-value when active; pre-open window now

1 recent deal; takes swaps to hedge option positions; low frequency

Three hardcoded prefire timestamps cover all expiry clusters with 7-min lead — cluster #2334–#2339 renewed on schedule at 11:09Z proving the system works

Per-asset bid/ask inversion guards for all 6 instruments fire immediately on oracle cross — eliminates free-option exposure within one poll cycle

SSV guard self-corrected within one wake after oracle drop $2.44→$2.43 (w213 guard wake) — rapid self-repair demonstrated

90-min fallback ensures recovery even if prefire timestamps all miss

Zero-LLM watch loop: price read + timestamp compare only — no model call until wake fires, keeping per-poll cost near zero

No fill-detection: BTC ask consumed before w212 and caught only at the next scheduled wake — up to 15min of missing ask exposure per fill event

Prefire timestamps are hardcoded absolute Unix seconds — script must be manually rewritten each wake with new expiries; failure to update leaves a cluster witho

Adverse selection from Arb-Hunter-Tom eroding PnL

Arb-Hunter-Tom accounts for ~70% of LP-Maker's fills and operates off a faster CEX feed — structurally exploits LP-Maker's oracle lag. Realized PnL -$16.82 over 149 deals confirms net-negative spread capture. Vol-adj widening (ETH +47.5bps, BTC +29.5bps) is directionally correct but insufficient: ET

Increase vol-adj multiplier for crypto when oracle move per cycle exceeds 50bps; consider skewing crypto inventory weighting toward equity synthetics (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) where adverse selection risk is lower and Stacker-Massimo/Option-Writer provide cleaner flow.

No fill-detection wake trigger leaves ask slots empty up to 15min

BTC ask consumed before w212, SSV ask filled break-even w211 — both caught only at scheduled prefire wake, not immediately on fill. Each fill creates an uncovered slot where LP-Maker earns no spread.

In watch loop: after each price read, fetch open intent count; if count < 12, fire wake immediately. Alternatively track per-asset ask presence by checking known intent IDs against on-chain state.

Hardcoded prefire timestamps require manual update every wake

PREFIRE2/3/4 are Unix timestamp constants that become stale after each renewal posts intents with new expiries. Agent correctly rewrites script each wake, but one missed update would leave a cluster without prefire coverage.

Compute prefire timestamps dynamically from expiry fields in posted intent objects (readable from state.json) rather than hardcoding. Eliminates per-wake copy-paste risk.

Token burn 44.7% of pool in 5h unsustainable against negative PnL

$72.87/5h operational cost against -$16.82 realized PnL means token spend alone exceeds trading gains by a wide margin. 237 wakes (36-min avg gap) includes many no-ops (w208 concurrent, w211 concurrent) adding cost without benefit.

Concurrent-wake deduplication already working (w208/w211 correctly no-op). Evaluate whether equity-synthetic intents (lower adverse selection) should carry lower spreads to attract more Stacker-Massimo/Option-Writer flow and improve PnL mix while holding token budget flat.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Clear high-edge taker opportunity at 23.1h horizon. BTC already $1,105 ITM for my side. Cost-implied 40% vs fair 85% = +

new BinaryBet appears OR deal #197 expiry window (~2026-06-16T11:01Z); 90 min fallback

Summary: MAJOR CHANGE since last summary: w111 (06-15T11:30Z) found and accepted deal #197 — BTC above $65,400 at +45pp edge (fair 85% vs cost-implied 40%), BTC $1,105 ITM at acceptance, portfolio debited to $80.24. Mimic now holds TWO open BTC-bullish binary bets (#192 >$64,900, #197 >$65,400) both expiring 2026-06-16T11:01Z. Wake script updated post-w111 to fire 5

Mimic had its most active cycle on record: accepted deals #192 (+27.5pp edge) and #197 (+45pp edge) in consecutive wakes (w110, w111) — both BTC-bullish, both expiring 2026-06-16T11:01Z. Now correctly holding, watching for new BinaryBets or the expiry settlement window ~21h away. Concentration risk: two same-direction same-expiry positions; if BTC falls below $64,900 at expiry both stakes are lost simultaneously.

BinaryBet flow is thin: w104–w109 (6 wakes) all held because available bets had taker edge of −65pp to +2pp — well below ≥3pp floor. w110 and w111 found genuine edge (+27.5pp, +45pp) and took both immediately. Currently correctly positioned and waiting for next flow.

Sound and on-mission. Disciplined edge floor correctly filtered −65pp, −15pp, +2pp opportunities before finding and acting on +27.5pp and +45pp edges. Consecutive acceptance in a short window (11:09Z → 11:30Z) reflects a real directional window, not churn. No re-derivation loops visible.

New BinaryBet intent appears on book (template=BinaryBet filter, baseline-on-first-scan to avoid stale fires)

Deal #197 expiry: setTimeout fires 5 min before 2026-06-16T11:01Z — but only when msUntilDealFire < FALLBACK_MS (90 min), so not active for ~20 more hours

90-min fallback (book-scan fallback, re-evaluates msUntilDealFire each arm)

Two prior settled deals; natural counterparty — Bear posts BTC-down bets that Mimic takes BTC-up side on

One prior deal; posts BinaryBets calibrated against Polymarket distribution — potential source of mispriced taker edge

Posts near-decided binaries and baited intents — could be maker of BTC bets with takeable edge

None. w104–w109 holds all justified: intents on book ranged from −65pp to +2pp taker edge, all correctly below ≥3pp floor. w110 and w111 both taken immediately. No evidence of a takeable BinaryBet being skipped.

Expiry timer: fires 5 min before deal #197 expiry (1781689260 − 300) — correct settlement trigger

BinaryBet watcher: filters by kind=unknown AND template=BinaryBet, baseline-on-first-run prevents stale-intent false fires

60s poll cadence within runWatchLoop — reasonable for a taker watching live book

90-min fallback re-arms cleanly; zero-LLM process loop; can't fire on 'book non-empty'

Deal #192 (same expiry 2026-06-16T11:01Z = Unix 1781689260) is NOT in the expiry setTimeout — only deal #197 is named. If the agent's settlement logic at that w

msUntilDealFire > FALLBACK_MS for the next ~20h, so the expiry setTimeout is NEVER armed in any individual 90-min window until T−90min; fine by design but means

Add deal #192 as a commented reference in the expiry block (same DEAL_197_EXPIRY_UNIX) and confirm agent's settlement logic at that wake scans all open deals — not just the deal ID embedded in the wake reason string.

Deal #192 absent from wake-script expiry timer

Wake script fires 5 min before deal #197 expiry and logs 'settle BTC above $65,400' — deal #192 (BTC above $64,900, same expiry Unix 1781689260) is not mentioned. If the agent's settlement routine uses the wake reason string to identify which deal to settle, deal #192 may expire unsettled.

Either: (a) confirm agent code settles ALL open deals on any expiry wake regardless of the wake reason, or (b) add a parallel setTimeout for deal #192 with the same DEAL_197_EXPIRY_UNIX − 300 trigger and a matching wake reason string.

Concentrated BTC-bullish exposure: two same-direction same-expiry positions

Deals #192 (BTC>$64,900) and #197 (BTC>$65,400) are both long-BTC and expire simultaneously at 2026-06-16T11:01Z. If BTC closes below $64,900 both stakes lose in the same settlement event. Portfolio is $80.24; stake per deal is ~$2.67 each (~$5.34 combined max loss from open positions).

Flag as known concentrated risk. Consider adding a per-expiry exposure cap in mission (e.g. max 2 same-direction same-expiry bets) if a third BTC-up bet appears before settlement.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

ETH fast momentum +3.89% in 44min clears 2pp edge (first time). No resting sellers to lift — two were cancelled before I

intent #2536 resolves | crypto gap ≥2pp (BTC/ETH/SSV) | US mkt open 13:30 UTC Jun 15 | 8h fallback

Summary: Fast signal has remained compressed across all wakes since the prior summary (w39–w46: 0.23pp–1.73pp, never crossing 2pp threshold). Slow signal is confirmed (SSV +6.67% vs ETH +4.02% = 2.65pp gap at w46, 10:46Z), but dual-confirm rule correctly holds. No new trades. Structural trigger imminent: watcher coded to fire at 13:30Z US market open (~20min from now

No asset crossed 2pp fast threshold since w39; flat-signal hold is correct, not stuck. Portfolio at ATH ~$104.15 (USDC 41.9% + SSV ~50% + BTC ~7.6%), realized PnL +$5.62. US market open at 13:30Z UTC is a hard-coded watcher trigger firing in ~20 minutes — the next likely wake.

Fast signal at w46 was 0.51pp (ETH leads BTC from 3.3h baseline); prior wakes: 1.73pp (w39), 1.40pp (w40), 0.603pp (w41), 0.23pp (w42–w43), 1.06pp (w44), ~1.5pp (w45). Slow confirmed at 2.65pp (SSV) but fast never clears — fleet-wide low volatility suppressing intraday divergence. No infra or toolch

Sound and solving the right problem. The agent consistently measures the actual decision variable (leader-vs-next-best relative gap) rather than absolute moves, correctly excludes frozen equities from crypto momentum calc, and applies dual-confirm to avoid buying the laggard on noise. 42 of 46 wakes are repeats — expected in flat conditions, not churn. The one risk: slow signal has been confirmed

Crypto gap ≥2pp between any two of BTC/ETH/SSV (dynamic baseline from first poll)

US market open 13:30Z Jun 15 — hard-coded timestamp trigger in current watcher (~20min from now)

8h fallback ~18:46Z Jun 15 (nextFallbackMin=340)

All 9 settled deals are LP-Maker swaps; LP is active, book refreshed at w210, resting asks available for momentum-driven taker

Same asset universe (crypto + tech equities); swing fades dislocations while momentum chases them — complementary directions, could cross if

None confirmed. Fast signal never crossed 2pp during this window; no momentum-valid swap was available that the agent failed to take. LP-Maker resting book may have had asks in SSV/BTC, but absent a 2pp fast signal these would be off-mission buys.

Measures leader-vs-next-best gap (correct decision variable) not per-asset absolute returns — a 1.5%/−0.8% pair correctly reads as 2.3pp gap

Dynamic baseline captured on first poll each wake — avoids hardcoded stale literals that would corrupt relative momentum calc

Hard-coded US market open trigger at 13:30Z expands universe to equities exactly when they become tradeable — zero-LLM, deterministic

8h fallback prevents indefinite sleep; 90s poll cadence appropriate for crypto volatility horizon

Excludes frozen equities from crypto momentum calc until market open — clean separation

Watcher is blind to LP-Maker's resting book depth in target assets — if 2pp gap fires but LP has no ask in the leader asset, wake burns $0.79 with no trade poss

Slow-only confirmation path (2.65pp slow, sub-threshold fast) has no partial-size trigger — the agent holds full SSV exposure correctly directionally but can't

Add a book-availability pre-check before fireWake: confirm LP-Maker has a resting ask ≥ $10 in the leading asset. Prevents wakes that correctly identify momentum but find no liquidity to act on.

Watcher fires blind to LP book depth

The 13:30Z market-open trigger and any 2pp gap fire will wake the agent regardless of whether LP-Maker has resting asks in the target asset. Last wake cost $0.79; a triggered-but-no-fill wake is wasted spend.

In runWatchLoop, after gap ≥ EDGE_PP, call belt.tools.readIntents (or equivalent) to check LP-Maker has a live ask in rets[0].asset ≥ $5 before calling fireWake.

No asset crossed 2pp fast threshold since w39; flat-signal hold is correct, not stuck. Portfolio at ATH ~$104.15 (USDC 41.9% + SSV ~50% + BTC ~7.6%), realized PnL +$5.62. US market open at 13:30Z UTC is a hard-coded watcher trigger firing in ~20 minutes — the next likely wake.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Wake 38 check — looking for new audited Option intents per mission.

new audited Option intent appears OR 6h fallback

Summary: Supply drought persists and deepens: zero audited Options (hash 0xb3d66f4b…) on book from w31 (06-14T13:24Z) through w38 (06-15T11:19Z), now 111min into the next 6h window (fallback ~17:20Z). The 0x57F8…B0ff entry in settled_deals_detail is already SETTLED — Option-Taker took it prior to w31; Step-1's '193m left' read was stale on-chain state, not an open op

~24h audited-Option drought (w31 06-14T13:24Z → now ~06-15T13:10Z): 0 options on book matching hash 0xb3d66f4b…. Agent is alive, correctly waiting. The 0x57F8…B0ff deal is already settled (pre-w31) — not an open opportunity. $26.81 realized PnL on 5 deals confirms strategy works when supply exists; the fix is fleet-level (Option-Writer supply).

Zero audited-hash Options on book across 8 consecutive wakes (w31–w38, ~24h span); option-writer-matheus (26 deals, health:ok) is the sole natural supply source but has not posted audited-template Options since before 06-14T13:24Z

Sound — w31–w38 each correctly rejected overpriced Options (40× fair value at w31, 3–5% premium below threshold at w34–w35) or correctly reported empty book. No churn, no off-mission deviation. Solving the right problem; supply is the constraint, not reasoning.

new audited Option (hash 0xb3d66f4b…) appears on book

MISSING: custom/non-audited-hash Option detection — watcher hash-gated only, 0x57F8-style deals are invisible to fireWake

sole Option writer; 26 deals, health:ok — natural supply source but not posting audited-hash options for ~24h

The 0x57F8…B0ff custom deal is already settled — not a miss. However: watcher is blind to any custom/non-audited-hash options between fallback fires; if similar 5-USDC custom options appeared in the last 24h and expired within 6h, they were missed. Unmeasurable without on-chain scan of non-audited custom intents.

fires instantly on new audited-hash Option — zero latency for the primary target instrument

60s poll cadence appropriate for a selective patient taker

seenIntentIds baseline-snapshots correctly on first poll so only NEW options trigger fireWake

hash-gated: blind to custom/non-audited options (0x57F8-style) between fallback fires — exposure window up to 6h

AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH hardcoded — if option-writer-matheus migrates template, watcher silently goes permanently blind with no error signal

Reduce fallback from 6h to 2h to halve the blind window for custom options; separately, add a dead-man alert if N consecutive fallback wakes return 0 audited options (signals stale hash rather than thin supply)

Watcher blind to custom/non-audited-hash Options between fallback fires

fireWake only triggers on hash 0xb3d66f4b…. Custom options (e.g., 0x57F8…B0ff class) are invisible to the 60s poller — only caught at 6h fallback. A custom option expiring in <6h is missed entirely.

Reduce FALLBACK_MS to 2*3600_000 (2h), OR add a secondary filter branch detecting intents with option-shaped fields (strike, expiry, ETH/BTC underlying) regardless of template hash

Hardcoded template hash — silent permanent blindness risk

If option-writer-matheus migrates to a new contract version, AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH goes stale; agent sees 0 options forever, indistinguishable from a real supply drought. No error, no alert.

Add dead-man check: if 3+ consecutive fallback wakes return 0 audited options, emit a named warning log; optionally pull hash dynamically from option-writer's config

24h+ audited-Option supply drought — Option-Writer not posting

No audited-hash Option intent on book from 06-14T13:24Z through ~06-15T13:10Z (~24h). option-writer-matheus (health:ok, 26 deals) has not posted audited-template options in this window. May be posting custom deals or rotating to non-Option instruments.

Audit option-writer-matheus recent wakes to determine why audited-hash Options are absent; if writer shifted to custom deals, coordinate template hash alignment or broaden option-taker's detection scope

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Summary: Intent 2388 (12 USDC → 0.058507 sNVDA at oracle mid $205.10, posted w34 11:16 UTC, expiring ~12:02 UTC) has lapsed unfilled: open_intents=0, no sNVDA swap appears in settled_deals_detail, no wake since w35 at 11:26 UTC (103 min ago). Agent is back to its pre-w34 dual-block state. The option-writing sleeve (fleet calls ENGINE 2; agent calls ENGINE 1) remains

Intent 2388 expired unfilled at ~12:02 UTC (open_intents=0, no sNVDA swap in recent settled deals, no post-w35 wake). Option-writing sleeve has been dormant 11+ consecutive wakes; watcher is fully blind to option-buyer demand so it can only write on a fallback. Sole reliable counterparty for sNVDA is LP-Maker-Matheus, who did not fill an oracle-mid bid — adverse-selection pressure fleet-wide may require a small premium above mid to attract a willing seller.

sNVDA supply gap persists w28–w35: no sNVDA seller >0.01 units has appeared on book; LP-Maker-Matheus (primary counterparty, 5 of 9 recent settled deals) did not fill oracle-mid bid 2388. Option demand = 0 across 11+ wakes (ENGINE 1 / option-writing sleeve); Option-Taker-Matheus (5 lifetime deals) h

Sound reasoning on the dual-block, but solving the right problem only partially. Disciplined wait is correct given genuine absences; w34's oracle-mid probe was rational. However, agent has not tested a small premium above mid to attract LP-Maker-Matheus as willing seller despite that agent's adverse-selection pressure being fleet-visible. Repeating exact oracle-mid bids may systematically underper

sNVDA seller intent >0.01 units appears on book (new match vs seen Set)

Fallback timer: ~14:35 UTC, ~102 min from now

MISSING: Option-buyer intent appearing on book — ENGINE 1 (option-writing sleeve) is completely watcher-blind; can only write on a fallback wake, never in real

Primary sNVDA swap counterparty (5 of 9 recent settled deals); would be the natural sNVDA seller, but did not fill oracle-mid bid 2388 — adv

Natural ENGINE 1 counterparty (buys options), but selective (5 lifetime deals, 0 demand signal across 11+ wakes); no option-buy intent has a

Opportunistic — took 2 recent swaps from this agent; could take a mispriced sNVDA intent, but process unstable (PID death w205)

Competing sNVDA buyer (same direction as this agent's ENGINE 2 need), not a seller counterparty

Unmeasurable for option demand — watcher blind to option-buyer intents; cannot assess whether Option-Taker-Matheus posted a buy intent between wakes. For sNVDA: no sNVDA seller >0.01 units appeared to fire the watcher since w35 per available data; LP-Maker-Matheus may recycle existing sell intents rather than posting new ones, which would never appear as a newMatches hit — this is a structural bli

sNVDA seller trigger (>0.01 units, posterGives=sNVDA, posterWants=USDC) is the correct match for ENGINE 2's unmet need

3h10m fallback cadence is appropriate for a patient accumulator; avoids churn polling

seen Set baseline deduplication prevents false-fires on stale intents at startup

ENGINE 1 (option-writing sleeve) has zero wake trigger — no watch for option-buyer intents on book; the 30% sleeve can only write on a fallback wake, missing ev

LP-Maker-Matheus may recycle/re-post existing sNVDA sell intents (same intentId) rather than posting fresh ones; newMatches would never fire on a recycled inten

Add an option-buyer trigger alongside the sNVDA seller check: fire when a new intent appears with posterGives=USDC and posterWants matching an option instrument — this unblocks ENGINE 1 from fallback-only operation and makes the 30% sleeve

ENGINE 1 (option-writing sleeve) watcher-blind to option-buyer demand

Watcher watches only sNVDA sellers; option-buy intents appearing on book never trigger a wake. Option-Taker-Matheus (active, 5 deals) could be a counterparty, but ENGINE 1 can only write at the 3h10m fallback. 11+ consecutive dormant wakes with $0 option revenue.

Add isNewOptionBuyer predicate to wake-script: fire when an intent with posterGives=USDC and posterWants=an option instrument appears (mirroring the isSNVDASeller pattern); this makes ENGINE 1 reactive to real demand.

Oracle-mid sNVDA bid underperforms given LP adverse-selection pressure

Intent 2388 bid at exact oracle mid ($205.10); LP-Maker-Matheus did not fill it despite being the primary swap counterparty. Fleet-level data shows LP-Maker is under adverse-selection pressure (-$16.8+ realized PnL); a small premium above mid may be necessary to attract a willing seller.

On next fallback wake, price sNVDA bid at oracle mid +0.5–1% to increase LP-Maker-Matheus fill probability; the portfolio deficit (-$9.99 vs target) justifies a modest premium over pure oracle-mid.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

27.8pp edge (threshold ≥8pp). BTC already $816 above strike. Expected profit $1.85 on $2.67 stake = 69% return on capita

deal #190 expiry (≈10:37 UTC Jun16) or intent fill/new binary (24h fallback)

Summary: Deal #190 (BTC>$64,900, expiry Jun16 10:37Z) remains the active live position; BTC was $65,716 (+$816 above strike) at w58 (10:53Z Jun15, 137 min ago) — no fresh price update since, watcher armed to fire at 10:32Z Jun16. Both maker binaries #1827 (sMSFT<$420, implied 79.94%) and #1916 (sNVDA>$195, implied 77.93%) are still unmatched (open_intents=2 confirmed

Deal #190 (BTC>$64,900) is the live position; BTC was $816 ITM at last data point (w58, 137 min ago) but no fresh price confirmation exists. Both maker binaries #1827 and #1916 remain unmatched — Bear-Yosher is the most plausible taker for #1827 (bullish tech → NO on sMSFT<$420) but hasn't acted. Agent is alive and correctly resting ahead of the 10:32Z Jun16 expiry fire.

5 settled deals lifetime; 2 maker binaries (#1827, #1916) unmatched since w56–w57 (~4–7h). Equity binary taker pool is thin: only Bear-Yosher and Mimic-Ljuba are plausible — neither has acted. Arb-Hunter ignores multi-day equity binaries.

Sound and on-mission. W58 correctly identified 27.8pp Polymarket edge on BTC binary #2364 (BTC already $816 above strike; 69% ROC). Maker binaries are well-priced by comparison logic (sMSFT<$420 at 79.94%, sNVDA>$195 at 77.93% with sNVDA at $205.10). High repeat_wakes (35/57 = 61%) reflects legitimate thin-book reality, not churn — no same-position reposting cycle detected.

Deal #190 expiry window: fires at 10:32Z Jun16 (5 min before expiry)

Own intent #1827 or #1916 resolves (filled or expired)

New BinaryBet or Option intent appears on open book

MISSING: BTC price guard — no early alert if BTC falls below $64,900 during the 21h resting window before the scheduled 10:32Z fire

Bullish tech equities — natural NO-side taker on sMSFT<$420 (#1827); not a fit for sNVDA>$195 NO side (sNVDA deeply ITM at $205.10, Bear-Yos

Prior custom deal with Polymarket-Ljuba; mirrors directional bets — risk is it copies the YES side of these binaries rather than taking the

Sub-24h near-decided binary focus; multi-day equity binaries (#1827 sMSFT<$420, #1916 sNVDA>$195 Jun19) are outside its playbook

none — each wake since w51 explicitly scanned for mispriced binaries/options; none found. No intents on the book that qualified. Unmeasurable whether an off-book Polymarket-aligned bet was missed (watcher scans the on-chain book only).

Expiry-triggered wake at 10:32Z Jun16 (5 min before deal #190 close) — purposeful, avoids unnecessary LLM cycles

Intent-resolution trigger for #1827/#1916 ensures immediate re-assessment on fill/expiry without waiting 24h

New BinaryBet/Option scan fires on fresh taker opportunities — directly mission-aligned

60s poll cadence appropriate; 24h fallback reasonable for this agent's pace

No BTC downside guard: if BTC crashes below $64,900 before 10:32Z Jun16, agent won't wake until the scheduled settle window — no early loss path

Fallback armed at 24h from w58 (10:53Z Jun15) lands at ~10:53Z Jun16 — 16 min after deal expiry at 10:37Z; a script restart would cause the agent to miss clean

Add a BTC price check in runWatchLoop: if BTC < 64900 (or < 64500 as warning band), fireWake immediately so the agent can triage before the scheduled 10:32Z window. Also cap fallbackMs to (DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS - Date.now() + 300_000) so a re

No BTC downside guard on deal #190 during 21h rest window

Wake script fires at a fixed 10:32Z Jun16 regardless of BTC price. If BTC falls below $64,900 overnight, Polymarket-Ljuba discovers the loss only at expiry — no opportunity to hedge or flag.

In runWatchLoop body, fetch BTC oracle price; if price < 64900 call fireWake('BTC crossed below $64,900 strike — deal #190 at risk'). A warning band at $64,500 adds an earlier signal.

24h fallback fires 16 min after deal #190 expiry

armWatcher fallbackMs=24h from w58 (10:53Z Jun15) → ~10:53Z Jun16; deal expires 10:37Z Jun16. If script restarts, the fallback misses the settlement window.

Set fallbackMs dynamically: Math.min(24 * 3600_000, DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS - Date.now() + 300_000) so the fallback always lands before the expiry trigger target.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Pre-market hours (11:04 UTC) + LP sMSFT lot (0.030888) exceeds balance (0.03) + no USDC for crypto DCA.

stock market open 13:30 UTC Mon Jun 15 (sMSFT trim + BTC DCA)

Summary: Lot-size block UNRESOLVED and confirmed to persist through the 13:30Z trigger: sMSFT balance 0.03 < LP-Maker minimum 0.030888, and the planned trim (~0.004 sMSFT) is further still below that floor — LP-Maker cannot fill either amount. At 13:30Z the agent will wake (watcher armed, nextFallbackMin 80 ≈ 14:30Z fallback), attempt the trim, hit the same gate, pos

At 13:30Z market open the agent fires and posts ~0.004 sMSFT trim — LP-Maker minimum (0.030888) exceeds even the full balance (0.03), so no fill is possible and USDC proceeds never arrive for BTC DCA. Block has held since w50 (11:04Z, 126 min ago) with zero on-chain transactions. No LP ask in the current roster is sized small enough to hit 0.03 sMSFT; the trigger resolves nothing without external intervention.

w50 result {} with reason 'LP sMSFT lot (0.030888) exceeds balance (0.03)'; trim plan = 0.004 sMSFT; 0.004 < 0.03 < 0.030888 — no combination clears the LP minimum. 15 lifetime deals all pre-block; 0 since w49 (10:24Z). No alternate sMSFT liquidity source in roster.

Sound in isolation — agent correctly sequences approval → market-hours wait → trim → DCA, and identifies the stock-oracle dependency. But it is solving the right problem in the wrong order: the trim is planned without a pre-flight check that it is fillable at the LP minimum. The 13:30Z wake will execute well-structured reasoning to the same dead end for the third consecutive wake.

13:30Z US market open Date trigger (fires the stored MARKET_OPEN_MS edge)

Fallback at 14:30Z (nextFallbackMin=80, consistent with script)

MISSING: pre-arm LP lot feasibility check — if trim amount < LP minimum, the watcher should escalate rather than re-arm identically

Sole active sMSFT liquidity provider (150 deals), but minimum lot 0.030888 blocks both the 0.004 trim and the full 0.03 balance — fit in the

Stacker accumulates sMSFT (taker on the buy side) — not a seller; cannot be counterparty for rebalancer's trim

unmeasurable: watcher is blind to the book between wakes. At w49–w50 the agent did check and found no fillable sub-0.03 sMSFT ask. No evidence a sub-0.03 ask has existed at any point since w50.

Zero-LLM, fires on a discrete external event (market open timestamp) rather than a poll condition — correct for a patient DCA agent

1h fallback (14:30Z) prevents a missed edge from stalling indefinitely

60s watch loop granularity is appropriate for a 13:30Z wall-clock trigger

No pre-arm LP lot feasibility check: arms for market open without verifying the trim is fillable; if balance < LP minimum the entire wake is wasted

No escalation path: on consecutive blocked wakes the script re-arms identically with no structured BLOCKED signal to the agent or operator

Add a pre-arm balance-vs-LP-minimum check: if sMSFT balance < LP minimum AND no alternate USDC source, emit a structured BLOCKED result (not a silent re-arm) so the agent can branch to a top-up sub-plan (buy ~0.000888 sMSFT to clear the min

sMSFT trim permanently blocked: balance 0.03 < LP minimum 0.030888

Planned trim of ~0.004 sMSFT and even the full balance (0.03) are both below LP-Maker's minimum lot (0.030888). No swap variant clears the gate. Block has held since w50 (11:04Z) and will persist at the 13:30Z trigger without external change.

One of: (a) buy ~0.000888 sMSFT to reach 0.030888, then trim a larger slice (net effect identical); (b) skip sMSFT trim this cycle and source USDC for BTC DCA via an alternate path; (c) request LP-Maker lower its sMSFT minimum for sub-0.031 positions.

Wake script re-arms silently on a known-unfillable trade

Script arms for 13:30Z without a pre-flight LP feasibility check. On a blocked wake the agent posts {} and re-arms, burning the market-open window with no escalation or operator signal. Third consecutive blocked trigger expected.

Emit a structured BLOCKED status when LP minimum > balance before arming; branch to top-up logic or surface for human intervention rather than re-arming to the next open.

Stacker-Massimo

Taker-led tech-equity accumulator: take resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle, 24/7, ~10 USDC lots; post own bid at oracle+0.5% only when nothing is takeable. Accumulate until 100 USDC deployed; never sell.

Bid 2466 correctly priced at oracle+0.5% ($206.10), drift 0%. Nothing to sweep, nothing to refresh.

bid 2466 fill/expiry | new LP-sized sNVDA sell ≥3 USDC | sNVDA oracle drift >0.5% | 45-min fallback

Summary: w71–w78 (10:29–12:34Z): bid 2351 filled at w78 ('misses=0 → resume sNVDA primary'), new bid 2466 posted. sMSFT 2337 confirmed within ceiling at w73 and still referenced at w75–w76 but not taken in any subsequent wake — rotation-threshold = a 'consecutive sNVDA misses' counter; bid fill reset misses=0 at w78, locking sMSFT out again. Two unresolved bugs: (1)

sMSFT 2337 was within ceiling at w73, still referenced at w75–w76, and never taken — rotation logic requires a 'misses' counter to cross a threshold before sMSFT is considered, but bid 2351 filling at w78 reset misses=0, locking sMSFT out again. Watcher only monitors sNVDA sells; sMSFT/sAAPL opportunities are caught only on 45-min fallback. 11 lifetime deals, all vs LP-Maker-Matheus or Option-Writer.

w73: 'sMSFT 2337 within ceiling but not yet at rotation threshold'; w75–w76: sMSFT sell still present, not taken; w78: 'misses=0 → resume sNVDA primary' after bid fill — confirms rotation resets on bid settlement, re-locking sMSFT; watcher current.ts has zero sMSFT/sAAPL sell triggers

Sound on oracle pricing and USDC accounting, but solving the wrong problem: the misses-counter rotation applies priority ordering to a pure taker decision the mission does not gate. The mission says take any of sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT within ceiling immediately; reserving sMSFT for 'enough consecutive sNVDA misses' is an off-mission heuristic the agent invented. Bid fill at w78 resetting misses=0 will r

bid 2466 fill or expiry (ownIntentResolved)

new LP-sized sNVDA sell ≥3 USDC ≤12 USDC (newMatches)

sNVDA oracle drift >0.5% from base $205.10

MISSING: new sMSFT sell ≤oracle×1.01 (any size ≥3 USDC)

MISSING: new sAAPL sell ≤oracle×1.01 (any size ≥3 USDC)

5 of 7 detailed deals; posts sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT swaps near oracle mid

1 settled deal; posts tech-equity swaps including sMSFT

frozen since w50 — sMSFT balance 0.03 < 0.030888 LP min, posting nothing

sMSFT 2337 confirmed within ceiling at w73 (10:38Z), still on book at w75 (11:55Z) and w76 (15:38Z) — not taken across ≥4 consecutive fallback wakes due to misses-counter gate; misses=0 reset at w78 means sMSFT is locked out again until counter re-accumulates. Represents a compounding systematic miss on a live in-ceiling ask.

Fires on bid 2466 resolution — avoids idle burn while bid is live

Oracle drift trigger at 0.5% keeps bid pricing current on sNVDA

Zero-LLM, clean loop, no sub-minute polling

Blind to sMSFT and sAAPL sell-side: only sNVDA sells trigger an immediate wake; sMSFT 2337 sits on the book and is caught only on 45-min fallback

Even if watcher fired on sMSFT, the rotation-threshold in agent reasoning would block the take — both layers need fixes

Add parallel newMatches checks for sMSFT and sAAPL sells (same ≥3 USDC ≤12 USDC size window) so any in-ceiling ask on all three target assets fires a wake immediately — combined with removing the misses-counter gate from the taker path in C

Rotation misses-counter gates sMSFT taker decisions; resets on every bid fill

w73 shows sMSFT 2337 within ceiling but declined 'not yet at rotation threshold'; w78 'misses=0 → resume sNVDA primary' after bid fill re-locks sMSFT. This will reproduce on every bid settlement indefinitely — the mission imposes no priority ordering on takes.

In CLAUDE.md: remove rotation-threshold condition from taker path entirely; take any in-ceiling ask on any of sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT immediately; apply rotation logic only to which asset to post a passive bid for when no takeable ask exists.

Watcher blind to sMSFT and sAAPL sell-side events

current.ts (w78) has zero sMSFT/sAAPL sell triggers; both assets caught only on 45-min fallback. Compounds the rotation bug — even a correct taker decision would be delayed by up to 45 min per missed asset.

Extend the watch loop with parallel isSellOpportunity checks for sMSFT and sAAPL (symbol swap, same size range); call fireWake on first match for any of the three target symbols.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

All actionable signals require selling crypto I do not hold. No buy-dip on any asset. Stocks not live yet. Best move: wa

Summary: Prior summary confirmed: w42 baselines (BTC 64332.29 / ETH 1678.77 / SSV 2.32) are fresh (~2.5h old at 13:30Z trigger, not the feared 15.3h). Agent is ARMED and patient at 132min since last wake, 110min to fallback — correctly resting. The sell-strength inventory gap persists: ALL three crypto assets are ABOVE baseline (ETH +3.74%, SSV +3.07%, BTC +2.43% at

ETH is the most stretched asset at +3.74% above the 1678.77 baseline, but zero crypto inventory blocks the sell side on all three crypto signals — no crypto trade is possible at current prices. The 13:30Z US market-open trigger (now ~50min out) fires unconditionally; the first actual trade depends on whether stocks show ≥1.5% dislocation vs their (agent-internal, not wake-script-visible) baselines. Realized PnL is positive at $0.76 on 5 deals; structural wait is correct given the inventory state.

All three crypto above baseline (ETH +3.74%, SSV +3.07%, BTC +2.43% at w42 10:57Z) — sell signals would require non-zero crypto inventory; agent holds 0 crypto. No buy-dip signal on any crypto. Stocks oracle offline until 13:30Z. Not infra or toolchain — agent is executing cleanly.

Sound and solving the right problem. w42–w41 reasoning correctly identified that all signals require inventory it doesn't hold, correctly deferred to market-open trigger, and correctly noted SSV was closest at +1.37% (still sub-threshold). No churn: each 'no trade' cites a distinct reason (inventory, threshold, market hours). The agent is not re-deriving the same move — it's actually tracking the

crypto BUY-DIP: any of BTC/ETH/SSV ≤ −1.5% below CRYPTO_AVGS (poll 60s)

US market open: Date.now() >= 1781530200000 (2026-06-15T13:30Z) fires unconditionally

MISSING: sell-dislocation trigger — but correctly omitted since zero crypto inventory; would fire spuriously

Primary swap counterparty for delivered swaps — fills both buy-dip and sell-fade legs

Could cross on sMSFT or crypto swaps but is currently frozen (0.03 sMSFT < 0.030888 min)

Could be on the opposite side of a momentum vs fade cross if SSV or ETH reverses

None verifiable: no crypto buy-dip signal (all above baseline), stocks offline until 13:30Z. SSV at +1.37% at w40 was correctly flagged sub-threshold AND blocked by zero inventory. No actionable intent on the book the agent could have taken given its fade-only mandate.

BUY-DIP-only crypto watch correctly reflects current inventory state (zero crypto → sell side is unusable)

Unconditional market-open fireWake at 13:30Z is the right primary trigger — stocks oracle goes live regardless of dislocation

60s poll cadence appropriate for a patient mean-reversion agent; not sub-minute noise-trading

4h fallback present; CRYPTO_AVGS baked in at w42 values (~2.5h stale at trigger — acceptable)

CRYPTO_AVGS are compile-time constants: if agent runs >4-6h without a wake that refreshes them, baselines drift. No TTL check or stale-baseline guard.

Stock trailing averages are NOT in the wake script — when market opens at 13:30Z, the unconditional fire is correct, but the watcher is completely blind to whet

Add stock oracle price check + stock trailing averages (sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT) to the watch loop, identical to the crypto block — so the watcher can fire early if a stock crosses ≥1.5% before 13:30Z, rather than waiting for the unconditional

Stock baselines absent from wake script — early stock dislocation unfireable

The wake script only holds CRYPTO_AVGS; stock averages are agent-internal. If sAAPL or sNVDA is already dislocated before 13:30Z market-open, the watcher won't fire early — it waits for the clock trigger unconditionally. This costs edge on volatile stock opens.

Add sAAPL / sNVDA / sMSFT trailing averages to the wake script constants (refreshed each wake) and add a stock-price poll block that can fireWake early on ≥1.5% stock dislocation — same pattern as the crypto block.

Zero crypto inventory permanently blocks sell-fade — no path to rebalance

ETH +3.74%, SSV +3.07%, BTC +2.43% above baseline as of w42 — all tradeable sell signals, all blocked. With 44.2 USDC and zero crypto, the agent can only wait for buy-dips that haven't materialized in >30 wakes. The agent is correctly waiting but the one-sided inventory is structurally limiting.

Mission-level: define a minimum crypto inventory floor (e.g. 0.01 ETH, 0.1 SSV) so both fade directions stay accessible. If the mission is purely opportunistic, document the zero-inventory stall as expected.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

Gap = 1 min (critical), ETH erosion restored. All rivals sub-floor so 1.80% no-rival rule applies.

25 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781532039; next poll 60s

[agent-entrypoint] wake failed: launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap) — output above

PID deaths at w201/w202/w203/w204/w205 (~15-20 min intervals); watcher process crashes between 30s polls rather than timing out. armed=true + nextFallbackMin=40 means fallback is absorbing each death. 6 open baits on book; 0 edges found at w205; no counterparty flow to take.

New takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges.ts, 30s poll)

~5 min before soonest intent expiry (soonestExpirySec from scan)

Quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes.ts cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: PID crash detection / auto-restart within the watcher process itself — the process dies silently and gap-protect on next wake is the only corrective pa

3 of last 8 settled deals; dominant hub with 12 open intents and deep inventory

2 of last 8 settled deals; fast-moving, likely to post mispriced intents vulture can take

2 of last 8 settled deals; posts options vulture can take near-decided

1 of last 8 settled deals; delivers swaps, occasional overlap

Four-trigger design (edge, pre-expiry, quote erosion, fallback) maps directly to vulture's active-quoting + opportunistic-taking mission

Pre-seeded honeypot IDs (779/836/869) prevent watcher from re-firing on known traps

30s poll cadence is appropriate — tight enough to catch price drift, not sub-minute spam

2h hard fallback is a correct safety net for a patient agent

No crash-resilience within the script itself: when execSync(scan-edges) or JSON.parse throws outside the try blocks (e.g. scan.takeable on a malformed response)

soonestExpirySec arithmetic: if scan.soonestExpirySec is undefined (malformed scan output), the pre-expiry condition evaluates undefined math silently — NaN >=

2h fallback is correct for a patient agent, but with PID dying every ~15-20 min the effective fallback is 'next gap-protect wake' not '2h' — the fallback is not

Watcher PID crash cadence undiagnosed (~15-20 min, 5+ deaths in 1h)

Deaths at w201/w202/w203/w204/w205 — far more frequent than the 2h fallback interval. The cause is unknown but likely: (a) unhandled exception from malformed scan-edges JSON crashing runWatch outside the inner try block, or (b) memory pressure from the execSync tight loop. gap-protect is compensatin

Add a top-level try/catch in runWatch; log the crash message before re-throwing. Then check watcher logs for the actual error — the gap-protect wakes will contain it in their output once it's surfaced.

Net PnL vs token burn: $2.09 realized on $136.54 lifetime burn

46 deals with only $2.09 realized PnL while burning $136.54 in tokens lifetime (current rate $8.19/5h = ~$39/day). The bait-posting loop is expensive. If fill rate doesn't improve, the strategy is token-negative net.

Audit fill rate on the 6-bait book: how many baits are being taken vs expiring? If >80% expire unfilled, reduce bait count or widen the cadence to cut token burn.

LP BLEEDING, TAKERS WINNING

~13/16 recent settled; LP-Maker hub for ~70% of fleet lifetime deals; primary clearing market

5 recent: 2 live (Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba, Polymarket↔Mimic-Ljuba), 1 settled (0x57F8↔Option-Taker); equity binaries frozen (Polymarket #1827/#1916 unmatched)

0 settled in 24h+ (Option-Writer audited-hash drought since w31)

LP-Maker ⇄ Arb-Hunter (×4 recent, deal 196 +26bps) + Vulture-Andrew baits active

CLEARING but LP adverse-selected; Momentum open (20 USDC→0.011 ETH, 358m TTL, no

0x8121 batch (24 open, 4 USDC→0.00003 BTC) ↔ no active fleet taker; Arb-Hunter BTC binary structurally untakeable

OPEN BOOK, NO FILLS — lot size too small for fleet agents

LP-Maker ⇄ Arb-Hunter; Rebalancer-Lior frozen (0.03 < 0.030888 LP min); Stacker-Massimo sMSFT locked by rotation bug

LP-Maker ask active ↔ Option-Writer bid #2388 lapsed unfilled; Stacker primary but zero rotations enabling sMSFT/sAAPL cover

MAKER ONLY — supply gap since w28 (24h+)

LP-Maker ↔ Vulture-Andrew (bait: 0.02732 sAAPL→8.097 USDC, 55m TTL)

Vulture-Andrew (1.504 SSV bait) ↔ LP-Maker potential; Momentum slow-signal confirmed (+2.65pp) but fast unconfirmed

LP-Maker oracle pricing lags CEX by design — the structural slow leg

Arb-Hunter extracts systematically: 39/41 lifetime deals vs LP-Maker; deal 196 at +26bps; LP realized PnL -$16.8+ with $

w353: LP stale $1,769.50/ETH vs CEX $1,774.09; ETH ask inverted -54bps at w212 (forced cancel); BTC ask consumed before scheduled wake (w212); SSV filled break-even $2.42

LP-Maker sMSFT lot minimum (0.030888) exceeds Rebalancer-Lior total balance (0.03)

Rebalancer frozen since w49 (10:24Z, 119min); planned ~0.004 sMSFT trim is also below floor; 13:30Z wake will hit the sa

w50 result {} 'LP sMSFT lot (0.030888) exceeds balance (0.03)'; 15 lifetime deals all pre-block; 0 alternate sMSFT route in roster

Stacker-Massimo rotation counter resets to misses=0 on every successful sNVDA bid fill

sMSFT/sAAPL intents within ceiling are permanently locked — each sNVDA deal success re-locks the rotation, making the th

w78: 'misses=0 → resume sNVDA primary' after bid 2351 fill; sMSFT #2337 confirmed in-ceiling at w73 and referenced through w76 but never taken; watcher current.ts has zero sMSFT/sAAPL sell triggers

Option-Writer-Matheus has posted 0 audited-template Options (hash 0xb3d66f4b…) since before w31 (06-14T13:24Z)

Option-Taker-Matheus starved across 8 consecutive wakes (w31–w38, ~24h); the entire options instrument segment is idle;

Option-Taker: zero audited Options on book w31–w38; Option-Writer: open_intents=0, sNVDA bid #2388 lapsed unfilled, ENGINE 1 (option-writing) 0 posts in window

Bear-Yosher's BTC-short strike selection has systematically lagged BTC's $1,800+ rise

Deals 159 (~$64,500 strike) and 160 (~$64,900 strike) are both OTM with ~5.7h to expiry — near-certain -$8 combined loss

BTC baseline $66,264; deal 159: $1,764 OTM; deal 160: $1,364 OTM; expiry 17:59Z today; realized PnL -$18.34

Vulture-Andrew process crashes structurally every ~15-20min (w201–w205) — root cause undiagnosed

Gap-protect fires correctly on each death and resets baits, but instability accumulates; if gap-protect margin shrinks,

PID 198107 gone w205 (10:07Z); deaths at w201/w202/w203/w204/w205; watcher armed=true nextFallbackMin=37 absorbing each; health=stuck

LP-Maker Adverse Selection: $77/5h Burn Unsustainable

LP-Maker is the fleet hub (39/41 Arb-Hunter lifetime deals, majority of Vulture and Option-Writer flow) but is the structural slow leg being extracted by faster-oracle agents. Arb-Hunter ×4 + Vulture ×multiple + Momentum ×1 in 5/16 recent deals; realized PnL -$16.8+ at $77.39/5h burn. ETH ask inverted -54bps at w212; BTC consumed before scheduled wake. Wider spreads post-cluster renewal (w210) have not yet stemmed the bleed.

Deal 196: LP stale $1,769.50 vs CEX $1,774.09 (+26bps Arb edge); Arb-Hunter 39/41 lifetime deals vs LP-Maker; SSV filled break-even $2.42 (w211)

Widen LP spread floors on fast-oracle assets (ETH, BTC) to exceed Arb-Hunter's ~6bps minimum threshold; add vol-triggered spread multiplier on top of existing vol-adj logic so spread auto-widens when oracle drift is high

Rebalancer-Lior Frozen — 13:30Z Re-trigger Will Fail Again

sMSFT balance 0.03 is below LP-Maker lot minimum 0.030888; the planned trim (~0.004 sMSFT) is also below the floor. No alternate sMSFT route exists. Agent has been blocked since w49 (10:24Z, 119min). The 13:30Z watcher wake is armed and will fire — but will hit the identical gate and defer again.

w50 result {} 'LP sMSFT lot (0.030888) exceeds balance (0.03)'; 15 lifetime deals all pre-block; watcher armed=true nextFallbackMin=64

Top up Rebalancer-Lior sMSFT to ≥0.030888 OR add a micro-lot DEX fallback route in its CLAUDE.md for sub-minimum positions; stopping the 13:30Z re-trigger from burning a wake on a known-dead path

Stacker-Massimo Rotation Bug Permanently Self-Locks Non-Primary Assets

The rotation threshold is designed to unlock sMSFT/sAAPL after N consecutive sNVDA misses — but every sNVDA bid fill resets misses=0, so the threshold is structurally unreachable as long as sNVDA bids fill. sMSFT #2337 confirmed within ceiling at w73 and present through w76 but never taken. Two compounding bugs: (1) fill resets rotation counter, (2) watcher current.ts has zero sMSFT/sAAPL sell triggers so watcher won't even fire on thos

w78: 'misses=0 → resume sNVDA primary' after bid 2351 fill; sMSFT #2337 in-ceiling w73–w76, not taken; current.ts zero sMSFT/sAAPL triggers confirmed

Fix rotation logic so threshold counts toward unlock without resetting on bid fills; separately add sMSFT/sAAPL sell-intent detection to watcher current.ts — both are CLAUDE.md/wake-script changes, not infra

Options Segment 24h Supply Drought — Both Paired Agents Idle

Option-Writer has not posted a single audited-template Option (hash 0xb3d66f4b…) since before w31 (06-14T13:24Z). Option-Taker has scanned 8 consecutive wakes returning zero supply. Option-Writer's own option-writing ENGINE 1 sleeve reports 0 demand across 11+ wakes. Both agents are armed and healthy — the block is in supply conditions or oracle availability, not infra.

Option-Taker: zero audited Options on book w31–w38 (~24h, next fallback ~17:20Z); Option-Writer: open_intents=0, sNVDA bid #2388 lapsed, ENGINE 1 zero posts

Inspect Option-Writer's option-writing sleeve conditions — confirm it holds sufficient sNVDA/sAAPL inventory and oracle prices it can write against; surface unmet conditions explicitly in wake logs so next cycle isn't opaque

Index Pair: 54 Null Cycles — Formal Decision Overdue

Index-Maker and Index-Taker have never been started: 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, no wake script, armed=false on both for 54 consecutive cycles. IndexBasket instrument segment is fully absent. Two board slots producing zero signal and degrading health-panel clarity.

Both agents: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0 — 54 cycles unchanged

Fund and deploy both agents or formally decommission them; continuing to board-slot them without deployment obscures the real fleet health signal

Vulture-Andrew PID Deaths Structural and Undiagnosed

PID deaths at w201–w205 (~15-20min intervals) with gap-protect compensating each time by cancelling short-TTL baits and reposting with 1h TTL. Armed watcher absorbs crashes via fallback (nextFallbackMin=37). Root cause (OOM, signal, unhandled exception) is completely unknown — no exit code or signal captured.

PID 198107 gone w205 (10:07Z); deaths at w201/w202/w203/w204/w205; health=stuck; 6 fresh baits posted post-w205; armed=true nextFallbackMin=37

Capture exit code and signal in the watcher on PID death and log one line per event; a single stderr capture would diagnose the crash pattern that has accumulated across 5+ unresolved cycles

Widen LP-Maker spread floors on ETH and BTC above Arb-Hunter's ~6bps extraction threshold — current oracle-lag structure funds ~$77.39/5h in adverse selection; this is the single highest-leverage fix in the fleet

Top up Rebalancer-Lior sMSFT to ≥0.030888 to unblock the only frozen non-bug agent before its guaranteed-to-fail 13:30Z re-trigger

Fix Stacker-Massimo rotation bug: rotation threshold must not reset on bid fills; add sMSFT/sAAPL sell triggers to watcher current.ts — two CLAUDE.md changes unblock a fully functional taker on in-ceiling intents

Make formal deploy/decommission decision on Index-Maker + Index-Taker after 54 null cycles; if decommissioned, remove from board to restore health-panel clarity

Add PID exit-code + signal capture to Vulture-Andrew's watcher on process death; one log line per event would diagnose the w201–w205 structural crash pattern that has gone unresolved across 5+ cycles

Same or slightly worse vs last run: Arb-Hunter fired 2 edges (w344–345) then 4 legit WAITs, LP-Maker renewed book at w210 but negative realized PnL (-$16.8+) is deepening as takers (Arb-Hunter ×4, Momentum ×1) dominate recent deals; Rebalancer lot-size block and Stacker rotation bug both UNRESOLVED

LP-Maker adverse-selection pressure: 5 of 16 recent deals are takers extracting from LP (Arb-Hunter ×4 + Momentum ×1); negative realized PnL (-$16.8+) trend unresolved with $77.39/5h burn

Rebalancer-Lior fully frozen: 0.03 sMSFT balance < 0.030888 LP minimum blocks all swaps since w50 (11:04Z, 119min ago); no alternate route visible

Stacker-Massimo rotation-threshold gate wrongly blocked a taker decision on sMSFT #2337 at w73 despite price within the ~1% ceiling; watcher also flagged blind

Vulture-Andrew PID death (w205, 10:07Z) structural and undiagnosed — gap-protect compensating but process unstable; health=stuck

Index-Maker + Index-Taker: 53rd consecutive null cycle each, armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0 burn — no deployment signal; decommission decision overdue

After 4 legit WAITs (w346–350) with oracle converged ≤6bps to CEX on all assets, has a new edge reopened — specifically the ETH +13bps move flagged last run — or is the book still within noise?

Replacement anchor #2387 (BTC<$65,100) is the 1 open intent — is it still resting, and have deal 159 (expiry 17:59Z today) or deal 160 (expiry ~10:58Z Jun16) moved decisively ITM or OTM since last run?

53rd null cycle: has any deployment signal appeared (wallet funding, env change, wake-script commit) that distinguishes 'deploying soon' from 'permanently decommissioned'?

53rd null cycle: confirm no IndexBasket intents on the open book and check whether any decommission or deployment signal exists.

PREFIRE4 was scheduled 12:46Z — did it fire and renew the book on time? Given Arb-Hunter took 4 deals and Momentum 1 since last summary, is realized PnL (-$16.8+) accelerating and are current spreads still covering adverse selection?

Deal #192 (BTC>$64,900, accepted w110 with BTC 1.56% ITM) — where does BTC stand now vs $64,900, and has any new BinaryBet appeared on the book since w110 for Mimic to copy?

Fast signal was 0.23–1.73pp vs 2pp threshold at last wake (w46, 10:46Z, 137min ago) — has any asset crossed 2pp since, or does flat price action still suppress signal fleet-wide?

No audited Options (hash 0xb3d66f4b…) seen for 7h47m through w38 (11:19Z); 6h fallback fires ~17:19Z — any new Option on-chain, and what is the 0x57F8…B0ff custom (5 USDC→5 USDC, 193m left) — could Option-Taker act on it?

sNVDA intent #2388 (12 USDC→0.058507 sNVDA at oracle mid $205.10) posted at w34 — has it been taken yet, and is ENGINE 2 (option writing) still dormant or has a new write been attempted?

Deal #190 (BTC>$64,900, expiry Jun16 10:37Z) is a live position — where is BTC relative to $64,900 right now, and are open maker binaries #1827 (sMSFT<$420) and #1916 (sNVDA>$195) still unmatched with Mimic or Bear-Yosher as potential taker

Lot-size mismatch (0.03 sMSFT < 0.030888 LP min) has blocked all swaps since w50 (11:04Z, 119min ago) — at the 13:30Z market-open trigger, what will the agent do, and is any LP ask small enough for the current balance to hit?

sMSFT #2337 was within the ~1% ceiling at w73 but rotation logic blocked the take — is sMSFT still on the book within ceiling now, and what exactly is the rotation-threshold condition that overrode a pure taker decision?

13:30Z market-open trigger fires in ~50min; baselines refreshed at w42 (BTC 64332.29 / ETH 1678.77 / SSV 2.32) — which asset is most stretched vs those baselines and likely to trigger a fade trade first?

PID death (w205, 10:07Z) is structurally recurring and undiagnosed — has a new wake fired since the gap-protect refresh (~10:55–11:02Z bait window), and is any pattern visible in WHEN pids die (uptime duration, deal count, intent volume)?

rebalancer-lior: Resolve lot-size mismatch — top up sMSFT above 0.030888, find a smaller LP lot if one exists, or update mission to skip sMSFT until balance is sufficient; agent has been frozen 119min

stacker-massimo: Remove rotation-threshold gate from pure taker logic — if ask is within 1% of oracle, take it unconditionally; rotation state should only determine WHAT to accumulate next, not WHETHE

vulture-andrew: Instrument PID death — log uptime, deal count, and memory at each wake so the structural trigger (time / memory / count) can be identified; gap-protect masks the symptom but the proces

LP-Maker adverse-selection audit: Arb-Hunter took 4 consecutive deals from LP + Momentum 1 in the recent batch; check LP spread calibration vs CEX feed to determine if LP is systematically leaking to

Index-Maker + Index-Taker: 53 null cycles, zero signal — make a go/no-go decision now; if decommissioned, remove from fleet to stop consuming observer cycles each run.