Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary latencyTake (no CEX feed on stock bets, nothing near expiry). No swap edge above 10bps floor with fundable int

new intent >1919 (binary bet or USDC-leg swap); 30min fallback

Summary: BTC binary drought confirmed structural since w243: #1848 still OTM by $1,018 and #1890 (BTC-below-$66k, unix expiry 1781559276 ≈ June 10) already expired 4 days ago — watcher's expiry-window block is dead code (bet1890Expired set true on first poll). Swap surface active with 3 fills (deals #167 mWETH +43bps, #168 mSSV +60bps CEX-lag), but deal #169 at w248

No new binary appeared since w243 — structural drought continues (154→156+ wait-wakes, #1848 OTM, #1890 expired). Swap surface is alive (3 fills w245–w248) but deal #169 was a wrong-side trade due to a label-reading bug in intent evaluation: posterGives/posterWants misread as taker-perspective, causing arb-hunter to sell SSV instead of buy. Fix the label bug first; retire the expired #1890 watcher block second.

#1848 BTC-below binary needs BTC +$1,018 (+1.57%) to be profitable for taker; #1890 expired at unix 1781559276 (~June 10, 4 days ago) — no live BTC binary exists arb-hunter can profitably take. Swap arb working (3 fills since w243) but poisoned by label-direction bug at w248.

Sound on the swap surface — correctly identified +43bps (w245) and +60bps CEX-lag (w246) edges. Accurate on binary drought rationale. BUT w248 shows a code-level reasoning failure: posterGives/posterWants read in taker-reversed order led to computing #1888 as a buy-edge when it was a sell, causing a wrong-direction SSV trade. Agent self-flagged it ('MISTAKE, should have taken #1889') — honest repo

New intent > HIGH_WATER 1894 with BinaryBet template or USDC-leg swap

DEAD CODE: #1890 BTC-below-$66k expiry window (bet expired ~June 10 at unix 1781559276; bet1890Expired=true on first poll, block runs forever doing nothing)

Primary fill source (11/14 recent deals); posts USDC-leg swaps arb-hunter takes when edge ≥10bps

2 historical fills; 3 live intents on book (sAAPL, sMSFT, BTC swaps) not yet assessed for edge

Posts BTC/ETH binaries but current BTC binary (#1848) is structurally OTM for arb-hunter's take side

Deal #169 (w248): should have taken #1889 instead of #1888 — correct swap was on the book but label bug selected the wrong intent. Vulture-Andrew's 3 live intents (sAAPL, sMSFT, BTC swaps) not yet assessed; may contain taker-positive legs.

HIGH_WATER-gated trigger (intentId > 1894) fires only on new intents — avoids re-evaluating stale book, correct for latency-arb mission

canTake filter correctly selects BinaryBet templates AND USDC-leg swaps, matching both arb surfaces

30-min fallback appropriate cadence for a fast-surface taker

fetchBtcCex() has timeout guard (5s AbortController) and null-safe return — clean CEX integration pattern

Dead block: #1890 expiry tracking runs every 60s poll for zero benefit since June 10 — bet1890Expired flips true on first iteration and the if-block never fires

No generic near-expiry binary detector — when a new decided BTC binary appears, watcher won't fire faster than 30-min fallback unless it exceeds HIGH_WATER

Remove the hardcoded #1890 block entirely and replace with a generic near-expiry binary scanner: fire if any BinaryBet with BTC underlying and <30min to expiry appears in the open intents response with CEX confirming which side is decided —

posterGives/posterWants label-direction bug — caused wrong-side trade at w248

Agent read posterGives/posterWants as taker-perspective labels (reversed), computing intent #1888 as a buy-edge when it was actually a sell. Result: sold 1.724 SSV @ $2.321 implied, received 4 USDC — opposite of intended direction. Agent self-reported 'should have taken #1889'.

Audit intent evaluation logic: posterGives = what POSTER gives = taker RECEIVES; posterWants = what POSTER wants = taker GIVES. Fix direction semantics; add assertion before accept: if computed edge is on a sell of an oracle-discounted asset, log a direction sanity check before proceeding.

Dead #1890 watcher block — cycles wasted, logic never fires

Bet #1890 expired at unix 1781559276 (~June 10). bet1890Expired is set true on first poll; the inner CEX check never runs. This block adds ~50ms per 60s iteration and obscures the watcher's actual logic.

Remove the #1890 hardcoded block from current.ts. Replace with generic near-expiry binary scanner (see suggestedChange).

mSSV position not tracked in portfolio snapshot — blind spot for position sizing

Deal #168 received 0.5 mSSV but mSSV is not visible in portfolio snap (confirmed w245 note: 'mSSV NOT tracked in snap'). When deal #169 sold SSV at w248, position basis was invisible to the sizing logic.

Verify mSSV token contract address is included in portfolio snapshot query; add explicit tracking for non-base-currency tokens received via swaps so subsequent wakes can account for open positions.

Bear-Yosher

Both BTC and ETH momentum signal fired HALT simultaneously — market has moved sustainedly against the SHORT thesis over

deal 159 betExpiry pre-fire (June 15 17:49 UTC) or 5h fallback

Summary: Since last summary: #1848 (BTC<$64,800) expired untouched at w55 (21:14 UTC June 14) — no taker. BTC then ROSE above $64,500 by w56, flipping deal #159 (BTC<$64,500) from 1.11% ITM to OTM; agent correctly cancelled the in-flight intent #1879 and attempted a $66,000 re-anchor. At w57 (21:56 UTC) both BTC and ETH momentum signals fired HALT simultaneously — no

Deal #159 (BTC<$64,500) did not settle since last summary and is now OTM — $4 locked until June 15 17:59 UTC betExpiry, likely lost unless BTC reverts below $64,500. Intent #1848 expired untouched at w55. HALT correctly triggered at w57 (both crypto momentum signals contra-trend); 0 open intents, watcher armed for pre-fire at 17:49 UTC June 15. No infra failure; mission executing correctly given the reversal.

Mission-mandated HALT: BTC+ETH both climbed persistently against short thesis (w57). #1848 (BTC<$64,800) expired untouched at w55; BTC broke above $64,500 at w56 making deal #159 OTM; 10+ consecutive expiries across descending strikes ($65k×9, $64,800, $64,500 cancelled) — sustained contra-trend mar

Sound and on-mission. Strike-tightening sequence ($65k→$64,800→$64,500) was logical given each expiry. The $66k re-anchor at w56 (1.73% cushion on the new price level) was correct given BTC's move. HALT at w57 applied exactly the mission rule ('halt when crypto climbs persistently >2% over a few legs'); no churn, no re-deriving — clean state transitions.

Time: 17:49 UTC June 15 — 10min pre-fire before deal 159 betExpiry

5h fallback (~02:56 UTC June 15) — posture re-check

MISSING: BTC price poll — no early-fire if BTC drops back below $64,500 making deal 159 ITM again mid-HALT

Existing counterparty on deal #159 (custom live); mirrors directional bets and could take opposite side of future BTC-below intents

Takes near-decided binaries on fast CEX feed — relevant if BTC drops back and deal 159 becomes deep ITM near expiry

Picks off near-decided binaries; 3 live intents on book (sAAPL/sMSFT/BTC) but focus is maker-side mispricing, not taker of bear's resting be

none — HALT mode correctly prohibits new posts; no taker-side opportunity applies in HALT state; deal 159 OTM means no settle action available

Pre-fire at deal 159 betExpiry minus 10min is precise and actionable — fires exactly when a settle attempt or final HALT-lift assessment is needed

5h fallback (~02:56 UTC June 15) handles posture re-check if conditions reverse

Zero-LLM polling; no spurious fires; clean HALT discipline with a single exit trigger

No BTC price poll: if BTC drops back below $64,400 mid-HALT making deal 159 ITM, watcher won't detect it until the 5h fallback — agent would miss a window to re

Add a BTC price-poll leg to the watch loop: if BTC < $64,400 (deal 159 1%+ ITM), fire early so the agent can reassess HALT posture and confirm deal 159 ITM status before the scheduled June 15 pre-fire.

Deal #159 OTM — $4 locked until June 15 17:59 UTC expiry, likely lost

BTC rose above $64,500 at w56, flipping deal #159 OTM. $4 is locked until betExpiry; absent a BTC reversal it resolves as a loss. Combined with -$18.34 realized PnL and HALT mode, no active recovery path exists. 10+ consecutive expiries across descending strikes suggests the BTC-down thesis has been

When HALT lifts post-deal-159 resolution, re-evaluate strike cushion selection: tightening from $65k to $64,500 under sustained upward pressure produced losses; require a stronger entry signal (e.g., confirmed momentum reversal) before re-entering and consider wider cushion to avoid consecutive OTM

Watcher blind to BTC reversal during HALT window

If BTC drops back below $64,500 during the ~20h HALT window, the agent won't detect it until the 5h fallback or the June 15 pre-fire — potentially missing a deal-159 ITM confirmation or a HALT-lift moment.

Add BTC price poll to watcher loop (fire if BTC < $64,400) to enable early posture re-check and deal 159 status confirmation without waiting for the scheduled pre-fire.

Index-Maker

Summary: 39th consecutive null cycle — confirmed unchanged. watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. No provisioning signal (wallet, config, env var, wake script) has appeared since last run or any prior run. IndexBasket LONG-side market remains entirely offline. This is structural absence, not a failure — the

39 consecutive null cycles, all signals identical: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 tokens, 0 wakes. No provisioning event detected. The IndexBasket LONG market is completely offline and has been since inception.

wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null, metrics.wakes=0, metrics.tokens_lifetime_usd=0 — agent has never executed a single wake; no wallet address assigned

N/A — agent has never run. No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher process (pidAlive=false, armed=false)

MISSING: no wallet/address assignment to trigger any initialization

sole designed counterparty — takes SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents this agent would post

also unprovisioned (health=unknown, 0 wa

unmeasurable — agent has never woken; no book presence to miss against

wake_script_source=null — no script exists at all

no watcher process, no fallback timer, no initialization entrypoint

Provision the agent: assign a wallet address, deploy a wake script that posts one LONG IndexBasket intent (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, USDC-settled) and publishes verified contract source to the indexer, then arm the watcher. Coordinate with index-taker

Agent never provisioned — 39 null cycles

wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. No wallet, no config, no script. This is not a crash or a failure mode — the agent simply does not exist yet as a running process.

Assign wallet, write and deploy wake_script (current.ts) to post LONG IndexBasket intents + publish verified source to indexer, arm the watcher. Must be done in tandem with index-taker — the market has two dead sides and provisioning only one achieves nothing.

IndexBasket market entirely offline — both maker and taker unprovisioned

index-maker (LONG side) and index-taker (SHORT side) are both health=unknown with 0 wakes and 0 deals lifetime. No IndexBasket flow has ever occurred. This is a fleet capability gap, not an agent malfunction.

Treat index-maker + index-taker as a paired provisioning task; neither is useful without the other. Coordinate a single provisioning event for both.

39 consecutive null cycles, all signals identical: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 tokens, 0 wakes. No provisioning event detected. The IndexBasket LONG market is completely offline and has been since inception.

Index-Taker

Summary: 39th consecutive null cycle — no change from prior 38 identical cycles. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Index-maker (sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents, sole natural counterparty) remains health=unknown and equally undeployed. Both sides of the IndexBasket market remain completely

Index-taker has never executed a single wake in 39 observed cycles: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, $0 lifetime spend. Even if deployed today, index-maker — its only counterparty — is equally offline (health=unknown, 0 wakes), so the market would remain frozen on both sides.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null across all 39 observed cycles. Not a wake failure — agent was never provisioned. Index-maker (slug: index-maker, health: unknown) shows identical deployment state: 0 wakes, $0 tokens, health=unknown.

N/A — agent has never woken. No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no watcher armed, no script, no triggers of any kind

Sole natural counterparty — publishes LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of

OFFLINE — health=unknown, 0 wakes, $0 li

unmeasurable: agent never deployed; watcher blind to book. Index-maker has also never posted an IndexBasket intent, so there is likely nothing to miss regardless.

wake_script_source is null — no script exists to evaluate

Deploy the agent with a wake script that polls for open LONG IndexBasket intents from index-maker; no script means no wakes, full stop.

Agent never provisioned — 39 consecutive null cycles

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens across all observed cycles. This is not a crash or wake failure — the agent container has never been started.

Provision and deploy index-taker. No action is possible until the agent is started and a wake script is in place.

Sole counterparty (index-maker) equally offline

Index-maker is health=unknown, 0 wakes, $0 tokens — never deployed either. Even after index-taker is provisioned, it will have nothing to trade against until index-maker is also deployed and posting LONG IndexBasket intents.

Coordinate deployment of index-maker and index-taker together; neither is useful without the other.

Index-taker has never executed a single wake in 39 observed cycles: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, $0 lifetime spend. Even if deployed today, index-maker — its only counterparty — is equally offline (health=unknown, 0 wakes), so the market would remain frozen on both sides.

LP-Maker-Matheus

BTC bid #1897 was inverted (BTC fell -0.21%, bid was at +7.7bps above new oracle). SSV ask over δ_cap. sAAPL inventory r

w157–w163 each log '11/12' or '10/12 live (sNVDA ask dark/absent)'; wake-162 script comment 'BTC[63938 bid, no ask]' confirms second gap; Stacker-Massimo (primary sNVDA consumer, 3/37 recent deals) now crashed — demand gone but inventory already zero; no external replenishment mechanism exists

New fillable swap intent from non-self poster (FILLABLE: USDC/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

Stock cluster prefire at 21:14 UTC (hardcoded STOCK_PREFIRE_TS = 1781471640)

8/37 recent deals, dominant swap taker, active on ETH/BTC/SSV legs

8/37 recent deals, untracked external, second-largest fleet counterparty

5/37 recent deals, swap consumer on price-moving assets

4/37 recent deals, multi-asset swap needs align with LP depth

3/37 recent deals, opportunistic taker on stale quotes

3/37 recent deals; was primary sNVDA/sAAPL consumer — exactly the demand that depleted sNVDA inventory

Price guards on all three actively-held assets (ETH/BTC/SSV) — fires when a quote would go stale/unsafe

Stock cluster prefire hardcoded to 21:14 UTC — prevents 9-min lapse gap that burned prior cycle

newMatches() swap intent detector covers full FILLABLE set including sNVDA — will fire if someone posts sNVDA for lp-maker to take

90-min fallback, zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence — correct for a patient market-maker

No sNVDA balance check — watcher cannot detect replenishment; only the 90-min fallback or an external sNVDA swap intent will trigger a wake when inventory arriv

BTC has only LO guard (63938 bid) with no HI guard — consistent with 'no ask' noted in wake-script comment, but means BTC ask-side gap (contributing to 10/12) w

sNVDA ask slot permanently dark — no auto-recovery path

sNVDA inventory depleted since w157 (19:30 UTC); no replenishment in 6 wakes spanning ~90 min. Stacker-Massimo (primary consumer) now crashed, so demand pressure is off — but inventory is still zero. Wake script has no balance-check trigger, so recovery only happens on the 90-min fallback or an exte

Add sNVDA replenishment to CLAUDE.md: either a periodic top-up from an external wallet, or a rule to buy sNVDA from the open book when inventory drops below minimum — then pair with a balance-check wake trigger to repost the ask within seconds of replenishment.

Book degraded 11/12 → 10/12 at w162; second dark slot unconfirmed

w162/w163 both report '10/12 book live'. Wake-script comment at w162 reads 'BTC[63938 bid, no ask]', strongly implying BTC ask is the second dark slot. BTC ask loss at w161 ('-BTC ask arb loss') may be the trigger. No explicit confirmation in logs.

Audit w161 BTC cancel reasoning: was BTC ask deliberately cancelled (correct, if oracle moved past guard) or lost to an arb race without repost? If the latter, add BTC HI guard to the watcher so oracle-up BTC moves trigger a repost wake.

Guard bug self-diagnosed at w158 during SSV +175bps spike

w158 log: 'Guard bug: set guard=bid/ask implied prices going fo...' — 17 TXs fired (probable over-cancellation then re-post). The full error is truncated. This is agent-self-detected but unresolved — no follow-up audit wake was logged.

Read the full w158 wake transcript to confirm whether the guard recalculation was applied correctly and whether the 17-TX burst produced any mispriced fills. If the bug persists in CLAUDE.md guard logic, patch the formula before the next high-volatility SSV move.

Mimic-Ljuba

Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on sole available taker; one deliberate move rule: skip thin or ambiguous edge.

new BinaryBet appears (crypto 24/7, stocks Mon–Fri 13:30–20:00 UTC) or 90 min fallback

Summary: w105 confirmed fired (06-14T16:38) — hold, only #1827 at −65pp on board. Intent #1848 (BTC, bear-yosher) was explicitly visible in w104 at +2pp taker edge: correctly rejected below the 3pp floor, NOT a seenIntentIds miss. 322-min dormancy explained by the prior ~205min watcher outage + no new ≥3pp binaries arriving since restart. nextFallbackMin=5 means a ca

w105 fired at 16:38 (hold, board showing only #1827 at −65pp); #1848 (bear-yosher BTC) was seen in w104 at +2pp — correctly 1pp below floor, no miss. 322-min dormancy = prior watcher outage + thin binary supply; nextFallbackMin=5 means catch-up wake fires in minutes.

w99–w105 all holds; w104 board: −15pp (#1827 sMSFT) and +2pp (#1848 BTC, bear-yosher) — both below 3pp floor. Last deal was #159 (BTC +8pp, w101). Only 2 confirmed counterparties: bear-yosher and polymarket-ljuba.

Sound and on-mission. 3pp floor + one-deliberate-move rule applied consistently across all 8 visible wakes. Each hold cites specific intent IDs and edge values. #1848 correctly evaluated and rejected at +2pp. No churn or off-mission drift.

New BinaryBet appearing in seenBinaryIntents delta with ≥3pp estimated taker edge

60-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=5, fires imminently — ~55min into current cycle)

MISSING: ≥3pp intents already on book at watcher restart are baselined as 'seen' and invisible until fallback fires (up to 60-min gap)

#1848 (BTC below $64,800) was on board at +2pp — 1pp below floor but would match at higher displacement; primary binary poster

Confirmed settled deals (custom live ↔ Polymarket-Ljuba); posts binaries priced off Polymarket implied distribution

Posts near-decided binaries as part of latency-arb strategy; could be taker targets if edge ≥3pp

Posts baited intents including near-decided binaries; 3 live intents on book (swaps, not binaries — fit uncertain)

#1848 (BTC below $64,800, bear-yosher) was +2pp in w104 — 1pp below the 3pp floor, not a miss. No ≥3pp intent confirmed missed. Any ≥3pp intents present on book at the moment of watcher restart (~55 min ago) would have been baselined invisible; the imminent fallback (nextFallbackMin=5) recovers those.

seenBinaryIntents delta fires only on new postings — avoids re-evaluating stale book noise

60-min fallback ensures the agent wakes in quiet markets and recovers from restart blind-spots

Inline oracle-vs-strike edge estimate enables lightweight pre-wake filtering without a full LLM call

1-min poll cadence appropriate for binary markets where postings are infrequent

seenBinaryIntents resets on process restart — all current intents baselined 'seen', making existing ≥3pp opportunities invisible for up to 60 min until fallback

Edge estimator uses hard 10%-from-strike threshold (fairProb jumps 0.5→0.9/0.1) — misses real ≥3pp edges in the 3–10% OTM/ITM zone and may over-fire near the cl

No stock-market-hours guard in poll logic (only in label string); watcher can fire on stock BinaryBet intents outside Mon–Fri 13:30–20:00 UTC

Persist seenBinaryIntents to disk (JSON file) and reload on startup, OR on restart immediately evaluate all current intents for ≥3pp edge (skipping the baseline-skip), so a process restart doesn't create a blind window for existing opportun

seenBinaryIntents resets on watcher restart — up to 60-min blind-spot for existing ≥3pp intents

Every process restart rebuilds the Set from scratch. First poll baselines all current intents as 'seen', making any ≥3pp opportunity on the book invisible until the 60-min fallback fires. During the prior ~205min outage, any binaries posted during that window were unseen by the watcher (caught only

Write seenBinaryIntents to a local JSON file on each update; read it back on startup. Alternatively, on restart bypass the baseline-skip and immediately evaluate all current intents against the ≥3pp threshold so existing opportunities are never silently deferred.

Watcher edge estimator blind in 3–10% OTM/ITM zone

The inline estimator assigns fairProb=0.5 for strikes within 10% of oracle, then 0.9/0.1 beyond. The 3–10% zone — where many genuinely ≥3pp taker-edge bets live — is estimated as a coin flip, causing the watcher to under-fire on real opportunities in that range. The hard cliff at exactly 10% also cr

Replace the binary threshold with a continuous model (e.g., sigmoid or linear interpolation over pctFromStrike in the 3–15% range) so the watcher's edge estimate better tracks the true probability gradient.

w105 fired at 16:38 (hold, board showing only #1827 at −65pp); #1848 (bear-yosher BTC) was seen in w104 at +2pp — correctly 1pp below floor, no miss. 322-min dormancy = prior watcher outage + thin binary supply; nextFallbackMin=5 means catch-up wake fires in minutes.

Momentum-Nikita

Edge threshold requires both fast AND slow lookbacks to show ≥2pp leader-vs-next-best gap. Fast fails at 0.23pp (ETH nea

crypto gap ≥2pp (BTC/ETH/SSV) | new fair SSV seller ≥$2 | US mkt open 13:30 UTC Jun 15 | 8h fallback

Summary: w41 (21:27 UTC, fast 0.603pp / slow 1.178pp) and w42 (22:10 UTC, fast still sub-threshold) have both fired as holds since the prior summary — now 11 consecutive holds since w31, all on compressed crypto gaps. Portfolio hit new ATH $104 at w42 via passive price appreciation. The 04:01 UTC fallback cited in the prior summary has been superseded: w42 deployed a

Gap remains compressed at sub-2pp through w42 (fast ~0.6pp / slow ~1.2pp at w41; sub-threshold again at w42); 11 consecutive holds since w31. Portfolio at ATH $104. Next guaranteed wake: 8h fallback ~06:10 UTC Jun 15, then universe re-expansion at US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 15. pidAlive=false means the intraday gap-polling loop may be down — only the scheduled time-triggers are confirmed live.

Crypto momentum gap compressed 0.076–1.73pp across all 11 holds since w31; dual-confirm rule (fast AND slow ≥2pp) never met simultaneously. Zero trades expected by design until gap widens. LP-Maker available and active (6/8 prior deals); not a counterparty problem.

Sound and on-mission. Agent consistently applies dual-confirm threshold (fast AND slow both ≥2pp before acting), correctly excludes frozen stock names (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) during US market close, and holds dry powder. Not chasing marginal edges. The only concern is the watcher process health (pidAlive=false), not the agent's reasoning.

Crypto gap ≥2pp from baseline (BTC/ETH/SSV) — requires live polling loop process

New fair-value SSV seller ≥$2 notional on book

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 15 — re-expands universe to all 6 names

8h fallback ~06:10 UTC Jun 15 (nextFallbackMin=444 from ~22:53 UTC)

MISSING: pidAlive=false — continuous polling loop appears down; intraday gap trigger relies on a live process that may have exited after baseline capture

Primary counterparty (6/8 settled deals); will fill rotation swaps when gap triggers; sNVDA ask dark but irrelevant until market-open re-exp

1 settled deal; 3 live intents on book (sAAPL, sMSFT, BTC swaps) — overlap only if momentum-nikita targets same assets

1 settled deal; swap overlap when portfolio drifts diverge

None — no ≥2pp crypto gap has materialized since w31; holds are correct by mission. LP-Maker sNVDA ask dark but stock universe is correctly excluded during US market close. No takeable intents visible to this agent's configured scope.

Dynamic baseline captured on first poll — no stale hardcoded reference price; gap measured from intraday start, not stale prior close

US market open trigger (13:30 UTC Jun 15) correctly gates stock re-expansion; crypto-only restriction during market close is accurate and precise

Fair-value SSV seller trigger adds a tactical intraday opportunity channel independent of the momentum gap

8h fallback ensures maximum silence window; zero-LLM watcher

pidAlive=false: if runWatchLoop process exited after baseline capture, continuous gap polling is inactive — only the cron-scheduled fallback and market-open tim

[object Object] in wake labels across w35–w38, w41–w42: JavaScript object coerced to string instead of a formatted label — signals a label-construction bug in f

Watcher fires on fast gap ≥2pp alone, but agent's dual-confirm rule requires both fast AND slow — a fast-only spike fires a wake the agent will hold on (minor,

Diagnose pidAlive=false: verify whether runWatchLoop is exiting prematurely (e.g., after baseline capture on first iteration). If process exits, the intraday momentum gap trigger is dead and only the 8h cron fallback will fire — the agent c

pidAlive=false: watcher polling loop may not be running

w42 watcher is armed (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=444) but pidAlive=false. The intraday crypto-gap trigger (≥2pp from baseline) requires a live runWatchLoop process polling prices continuously. If the process exited after the baseline capture on the first iteration, no price gap will trigger a wake

At next wake, check watcher.pidAlive; if false, agent should log the condition and re-deploy the watcher script. Root-cause: inspect whether runWatchLoop exits after first iteration or after fireWake() is called and the process self-terminates.

[object Object] in wake labels (w35–w38, w41–w42)

Six consecutive wakes show '[object Object]' in the label field, indicating a JavaScript object is passed directly to fireWake or the label construction where a string is expected. Cosmetic but indicates a consistent bug in label formatting.

Locate the wake label construction — ensure it uses a template literal or .toString() rather than passing a raw object. Check fireWake() call sites in the watcher.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Intent #1849 fails edge bar set in wake 32 (1-2% premium or 4h+ expiry). Premium 5%, time 1.47h — both below threshold.

new audited Option intent (ETH/BTC) appears OR 6h fallback

Summary: 5 lifetime deals (all vs 0x57F8…B0ff / option-writer); $26.81 PnL on $1.47 lifetime token spend — selection discipline is working. ETH call #1849 (5% premium, 1.47h expiry) was correctly rejected at w34 per the dual-bar established at w32 (≤1–2% premium AND ≥4h expiry). However, the seenIntentIds watcher mechanism guaranteed w35 would never fire for it regar

ETH call #1849 almost certainly expired untaken: seenIntentIds seeds on the first watcher poll post-w34, permanently hiding #1849 from all subsequent fireWake() checks. Even if w35 had fired, the agent's own dual-bar (5% premium, 1.47h expiry — both below threshold) would have rejected it, same as w34. The agent itself is healthy: 5 profitable deals, $26.81 PnL, watcher armed with 245min fallback.

w35 not fired in 131min (Step-1) despite #1849 (~10min book-life) being live; watcher seeds seenIntentIds = new Set(currentOptions) on first poll and returns — #1849 entered the seed set on the w34→arm transition and can never trigger fireWake(); 6h fallback (nextFallbackMin 245) is the only remaini

Sound and solving the right problem — dual-bar rejection of #1849 (5% premium, 1.47h expiry) at w34 is consistent with the threshold established at w32. Discipline is correct; the delivery mechanism is what fails.

new audited ETH/BTC Option intent posted AFTER the seed-pass (correctly fires)

MISSING: any audited option already on book at watcher-start — seenIntentIds seeds these on first poll and permanently swallows them

sole counterparty for all 5 settled deals (0x57F8…B0ff); posts ETH/BTC options this agent evaluates

ETH call #1849 (0.5 USDC premium, strike $1,686.51): watcher blind due to seenIntentIds seed — w35 never fired. Moot on fundamentals: w34 would have rejected it anyway (5% premium, 1.47h expiry — both below dual-bar). Net: a missed wake, not a missed trade.

60s poll cadence appropriate for hour-scale option expiry

correct audited template hash + ETH/BTC asset filter

seenIntentIds initialized null and seeded on first poll — any option on book at watcher-start is permanently invisible to fireWake() for the life of that watche

no fire-on-first-poll path: if options exist when seenIntentIds is null, they should fire immediately, not be silently swallowed

On the first poll (seenIntentIds === null), if auditedOptions.length > 0, call fireWake() before seeding — don't return silently. Alternatively, remove seenIntentIds entirely: fire whenever the open audited-option set is non-empty (the LLM

seenIntentIds seed-on-first-poll permanently blinds in-flight options after each wake

After every wake fires and the watcher re-arms, runWatchLoop's first iteration hits the `if (!seenIntentIds)` branch, seeds the full current option set, and returns without calling fireWake(). Any option on book at that moment — including a live, evaluable one like #1849 — can never trigger a subseq

Change the first-poll branch: if (!seenIntentIds && auditedOptions.length > 0) { fireWake('existing audited option on book: #' + auditedOptions[0].intentId); return; } then seed on the following poll. Or remove the seenIntentIds gate entirely and fire on any non-empty result — the LLM already gates

Option-Writer-Matheus

sAAPL overweight was critical (31 USD above target). Market had competitive buy orders near oracle; accepts settled fast

intent 1921 (sNVDA buy) resolves (or 60 min fallback)

Summary: Both ETH calls almost certainly expired worthless: #1849 (posted w8 17:50, strike 1680.32, 1.5h TTL → expired ~19:20) and #1878 (posted w9 17:51, strike 1686.51, 1.5h TTL → expired ~19:21) show zero option deals in settled_deals_detail — only swaps appear. Option-taker-matheus's seenIntentIds blind-spot is the primary suspect. Dominant new event: w11 (18:57)

ETH calls 1849 and 1878 both expired worthless (no option deal in 22 settled; option-taker seenIntentIds blind-spot the likely cause). A w11 direction misread (intent 1903 accepted as buy not sell) cost ~13.41 USD; corrective sell intent 1917 is live. Next action post-1917 resolution: resume equity worst-2 rebalance; option sleeve is on hold until the core blind-spot is patched — posting further calls into a buyer-less market burns collateral for nothing.

Intents 1849 and 1878 (20 USDC total collateral, 1.0 USDC total premium at stake) produced 0 option deals despite 1.5h windows; option-taker-matheus is the only natural buyer and has a confirmed seenIntentIds blind-spot (Step-1 focus, affects ≥3 agents). Equity sleeve is healthy (4/6 recent deals wi

Equity engine is sound: worst-2 Pyth Benchmarks ranking, near-oracle pricing, TTL extensions, disciplined lot sizing. W11 is a critical failure: accepted intent 1903 without verifying give/want direction against the current rebalance plan — accepted a buy when the plan called for selling sAAPL overweight. The corrective 1917 post shows self-awareness but the accept-without-direction-check pattern

ownIntentResolved on intent 1917 (poll every 30s) — fires on fill or expiry

65 min fallback (just past ~59 min intent expiry) ensures wake even on silent expiry

MISSING: no signal if option-taker blind-spot is cleared — next wake will likely re-post another ETH call into an empty buyer market without checking counterpar

Primary equity counterparty: 4 of 6 recent settled deals; fills sAAPL/sNVDA buys reliably near oracle

ok (127 deals, health ok; sNVDA ask dark

Natural buyer for written ETH calls, but seenIntentIds blind-spot blocks it from seeing 1849/1878 — option sleeve effectively has zero count

health ok but functionally blind to opti

Took 1 swap; scavenger profile could pick off mispriced corrective sell 1917 or swap intents

Took 1 swap (sAAPL overlap); equity accumulator — could fill sAAPL corrective sell 1917

Option-taker almost certainly missed both ETH calls (1849, 1878) due to seenIntentIds blind-spot — 1.0 USDC premium left uncollected, 20 USDC collateral locked then released for nothing. Corrective sell 1917 outcome unknown; LP-Maker or Vulture-Andrew should fill it if priced within range (5.82 USDC for 0.02 sAAPL ≈ 291 USDC/share).

Correctly prioritizes the immediate corrective action: blocks new equity/option moves until 1917 (the mistrade repair) resolves

30s poll cadence appropriate for a ~59 min intent window — not over-polling

65 min fallback lands just past intent expiry, ensuring the agent wakes promptly even if ownIntentResolved never fires

No counterparty-readiness gate before the option sleeve re-engages: next wake will likely re-post an ETH call even though option-taker remains blind

No direction-validation guard noted anywhere in the watcher (the w11 misread is an agent-loop problem, but a watcher note or pre-accept check could catch future

Before posting the next ETH call option, add a counterparty-readiness probe: check whether option-taker-matheus has any recent activity on the option book; if its seenIntentIds blind-spot is still active, skip the option post that wake and

Intent direction misread: accepted buy intent 1903 while planning to sell sAAPL

W11 accepted intent 1903 (give 11.73 USDC, get 0.04 sAAPL) thinking it was a sale offer, deepening sAAPL overweight instead of reducing it. Total cost ~13.41 USD (11.73 + 1.68 gas). Only 0.02 sAAPL of the 0.04 is being corrected via 1917, so net ~0.02 sAAPL residual overweight remains. Realized PnL

In CLAUDE.md accept logic, mandate a pre-accept direction check: confirm the intent's give/want aligns with the current rebalance plan direction (buy vs sell) for that asset before calling accept — reject if it deepens an overweight.

seenIntentIds blind-spot kills option-writer's 30% sleeve (fleet-wide SDK issue)

ETH calls 1849 and 1878 both expired worthless with 0 option deals across 22 total settled. Option-taker-matheus is the designated buyer; its seenIntentIds set is preventing re-evaluation of live options. This is a confirmed Step-1 fleet-wide issue affecting ≥3 agents. Option-writer's 30% sleeve is

Patch SDK seenIntentIds to expire entries after intent TTL elapses or on intent resolution, so agents re-evaluate options that were previously deferred but are still live on the book.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No takeable opps. Maker fallback: sNVDA>$195 strongest new candidate outside existing sMSFT position. sNVDA at $205.10 (

intent fills/expires or new takeable binary/option (24h fallback)

Summary: w57 (22:14 UTC) added sNVDA>$195 Jun19 maker binary (#0x077c, 7 USDC, 77.93% implied) alongside existing sMSFT<$420 (#1827, 7 USDC, 79.94% implied) — both June 19 20:00 UTC expiry, 14 USDC total deployed. Wake script updated to track both intent IDs. nextFallbackMin 1332→1267 (elapsed-time consistent, ~21h remaining). Structural gap from prior run PERSISTS a

Agent is alive and on-mission: 2 maker binaries posted (14 USDC, both June 19), resting 130 min into a 24h cycle — mechanically correct. Core risk: without a Polymarket-odds-shift trigger, either position could drift >10% from its entry implied (79.94% sMSFT, 77.93% sNVDA) for a full 24h before the agent can reprice or exit. The 21h sleep is structurally valid at 92h to expiry, but only if Polymarket is static — it is not.

w53 and w57 both report 0 takeable mispriced BinaryBet/Option opportunities; agent fell back to posting own maker binaries. 4 settled deals lifetime (Swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, custom ↔ Mimic-Ljuba). open_intents=1 reported but 2 binaries posted (#1827, #0x077c) — one may have already resolved or the

Sound on taker path: correctly passing on swaps <1% edge and coin-flip binaries at w53. Maker fallback at w57 is quantitative (sNVDA $205.10, 5.2% ITM, asserted 77.93%) but does NOT cite a fetched Polymarket probability for sNVDA>$195 Jun19 — the edge claim is asserted, not Polymarket-referenced. This is solving the right problem but with weaker evidence than the mission demands on the maker leg.

Own intent resolved (filled or expired) — sMSFT #1827 or sNVDA #1916

New BinaryBet or Option appears on book (newMatches)

24h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1267, ~21h remaining)

MISSING: Polymarket probability shift >threshold on sMSFT<$420 or sNVDA>$195 — absent for BOTH deployed positions, persisting from prior run

Takes near-decided binaries as expiry approaches — sMSFT/sNVDA become viable targets ~12-24h before June 19 resolution

Takes near-decided/mispriced binaries; 3 live intents on book right now, most active taker on fleet (45 deals)

ok, 45 deals, active — 3 open intents on

Prior deal (custom ↔ Mimic-Ljuba) confirms historical fit; accepts winnable open bets — but seenIntentIds blind-spot fleet-wide may block di

Tech-equity-up conviction aligns with sNVDA>$195; could take the other side of sMSFT<$420 if bearish on tech

None confirmed — agent scanned book at w53–w57 and reported 0 takeable mispriced BinaryBet/Option each wake. Unmeasurable whether Polymarket-sourced taker opportunities appeared between wakes (watcher is blind to Polymarket between fires; this is the defining structural gap).

Fires on own-intent resolution — correct primary trigger for a maker waiting on fills

Fires on any new BinaryBet/Option appearing — enables taker path without polling overhead

Updated at w57 to track both deployed intent IDs (#1827 sMSFT, #1916 sNVDA)

24h fallback defensible: 3-4 wakes remaining before June 19 expiry at current cadence

No Polymarket probability poll in watch loop: either position could reprice >10% on Polymarket while agent sleeps 24h — the exact risk a Polymarket-valuation ag

No strike-proximity trigger: sNVDA at $205.10 ($10 above $195 strike); a spot move toward strike would not fire a wake

Add Polymarket poll inside runWatchLoop: every 30–60 min fetch implied probability for both deployed market slugs; if abs(currentProb − entryImplied) > 0.08, fireWake('polymarket odds shifted >8% on [slug]'). Persist entry implied (79.94% s

No Polymarket-odds-shift trigger — persisting from prior run, now affects 2 positions

Wake script monitors intent resolution and new book intents but never polls Polymarket between wakes. Both sMSFT<$420 (79.94% implied) and sNVDA>$195 (77.93% implied) can drift materially vs Polymarket for up to 24h undetected. Gap was flagged last cycle for 1 position; w57 added a second without fi

In runWatchLoop: poll Polymarket API for sMSFT-below-420-june-19 and sNVDA-above-195-june-19 slugs every 30 min; fireWake if |currentProb − entryImplied| > 0.08. Store entryImplied in data/wake/polymarket-entries.json at post time.

sNVDA>$195 maker edge asserted without Polymarket reference

w57 cited sNVDA at $205.10 (5.2% ITM) and posted 77.93% implied but did not fetch or log a Polymarket probability for sNVDA>$195 Jun19. If Polymarket implies 90%+, the 77.93% price gives away edge; if Polymarket implies 65%, the price won't attract rational takers.

Require a Polymarket fetch before posting any maker binary; log fetched Polymarket implied vs posted implied in the wake output. Reject post if Polymarket data is unavailable.

Rebalancer-Lior

Sunday 21:44 UTC. Stocks closed. No USDC. Gaps too small for crypto-only rebalance. Watcher date was wrong — would have

Monday 2026-06-15T13:30Z stock open -- trim sMSFT, DCA BTC

Summary: w48 fired at 06-14T21:44Z (25 min ago, new since last summary) and introduced a date regression: it 'fixed' the watcher from 2026-06-16 → 2026-06-15, but 06-16 IS Monday (correct) and 06-15 is Sunday (wrong). nextFallbackMin=980 confirms the watcher is now armed for Sunday 14:30Z, not Monday 13:30Z. Plan itself (trim sMSFT +1.52pp → BTC DCA -1.65pp) and sMSF

w48 corrected the watcher date in the wrong direction — changed 2026-06-16 (Monday, correct) to 2026-06-15 (Sunday, wrong). nextFallbackMin=980 (~16.3h) points to Sunday 14:30Z; US markets are closed Sunday. The DCA will fire into a closed market, waste a wake, and miss the planned Monday execution unless the date is fixed to 2026-06-16 in the current wake script.

wake_script MARKET_OPEN_MS = new Date('2026-06-15T13:30:00Z') is Sunday; nextFallbackMin=980 ≈ Sunday 14:30Z; w48 log explicitly shows '2026-06-16→2026-06-15' direction, reversing a correct Monday date to an incorrect Sunday date

Unsound on the date: w48 diagnosed a wrong date (2026-06-16) and 'corrected' it to 2026-06-15, but 06-16 is Monday (correct) and 06-15 is Sunday (wrong). The reversal is a pure reasoning error — the agent solved the right problem (date check) in the wrong direction. The rest of the plan (gap sizes, approval gating, premium escalation logic) remains sound.

Poll every 5 min: fires when Date.now() >= 2026-06-15T13:30Z (WRONG — should be 2026-06-16T13:30Z)

Fallback at ~2026-06-15T14:30Z (WRONG — Sunday, US markets closed)

MISSING: day-of-week guard (stock oracle only live Mon–Fri)

Primary BTC swap counterparty (127 deals, deep inventory); prior swap w44 #1294 was filled via this channel

One of two settled counterparties on record ('Swap settled ↔ Momentum-Nikita'); BTC/equity overlap

Resting sMSFT asks could absorb the trim leg if posted at oracle+0.5%; 6 deals

none — US markets closed Saturday and Sunday; no sMSFT or BTC opportunities within mandate that were skippable

Poll-loop with 5-min cadence is appropriate for a time-gated trigger (not over-polling)

Fallback at +60min past market open is a sound safety net

Zero-LLM watcher — deterministic time check, no book dependency

fireWake message is specific and includes the trade plan

MARKET_OPEN_MS set to 2026-06-15T13:30Z (Sunday) — one day early; should be 2026-06-16T13:30Z

FALLBACK_MS likewise targets Sunday 14:30Z

No day-of-week guard: if it fires Sunday it will loop without trading and re-arm blind

Change both date literals from '2026-06-15' to '2026-06-16' (Monday); optionally add a day-of-week check before fireWake to prevent Sunday misfires.

Wake script targets Sunday 2026-06-15, not Monday 2026-06-16

MARKET_OPEN_MS = new Date('2026-06-15T13:30:00Z') is one day early. w48 introduced this by inverting the correction direction (logged as '2026-06-16→2026-06-15'). nextFallbackMin=980 confirms the armed fallback is Sunday 14:30Z. sMSFT oracle is offline Sunday; DCA will fail silently and waste a wake

Edit current.ts: replace both '2026-06-15' literals with '2026-06-16'. Re-arm the watcher. Expected nextFallbackMin after fix: ~2420 (Monday 14:30Z).

Stacker-Massimo

Bid 1833 on-price, no sNVDA sell-side, no oracle drift. No action warranted.

intent 1833 fill/expiry | sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC | oracle drift >0.5%

Summary: Continuing from last run's confirmed recovery (armed=true, wakes_failing=false): w46 (21:50) just completed clean — 8 consecutive healthy wakes since. Bid 1833 (10 USDC → ~0.04852 sNVDA at oracle×1.005, TTL 6.5h from w43) confirmed as the mission-correct fallback: agent re-posted after bid 1599 expired unfilled at w43 and has correctly held position through

Stacker is healthy and on-mission: bid 1833 at oracle×1.005 is the correct fallback per mission spec ('post own bid only when nothing is takeable'), 10 USDC locked, ~4h remaining. LP-Maker's sNVDA ask has been dark 6+ wakes — stacker's 0 takes since w39 trace entirely to absent supply, not agent logic. 6 settled deals (4 ↔ LP-Maker, 1 ↔ Option-Writer), holdings 0.129488 sNVDA ($26.56) + 63.82 USDC free.

w39–w46 (8 consecutive wakes): 'No posterGives=sNVDA intent exists / no sNVDA sell-side'; LP-Maker sNVDA ask dark since w157+ (fleet-confirmed Step-1); 4 of 6 settled deals were ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus — primary and near-exclusive supply source is offline

Sound, on-mission. Agent correctly identifies no takeable asks, checks bid drift at each wake, re-posted 1833 at w43 after 1599 expired (correct fallback trigger), and holds idle through w44–w46 with zero drift and no supply — no churn, no off-mission action. The one concern: seenIntents seeds at watcher-start and misses pre-existing asks if LP-Maker comes back while watcher is mid-cycle, but this

intent 1833 resolved (filled or expired)

new sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC (posterGives=sNVDA, posterWants=USDC) — via newMatches()

4 of 6 settled deals; primary sNVDA sell-side source — but sNVDA ask dark for 6+ wakes (w157–w163+), no supply currently

1 settled deal; occasionally posts sNVDA exposure; not a reliable 24/7 counterparty

3 live intents (sAAPL, sMSFT, BTC) — no confirmed sNVDA asks on book; might post incidentally

None verifiable today — LP-Maker sNVDA ask dark means no supply existed to take. seenIntents blind-spot is latent: if LP-Maker posts an sNVDA ask that was already on the book when watcher re-armed, stacker won't fire until the intent is cancelled and reposted (or until the 45-min fallback). Magnitude unmeasurable until LP-Maker's ask comes back online.

isTakeableSnvdaSell() correctly distinguishes sell-side (posterGives=sNVDA) from buy-side — prevents accidentally selling the stack

12 USDC lot ceiling matches the ~10 USDC mission spec with a small buffer

oracle drift check at each poll ensures bid refresh fires promptly if price moves >0.5%

ownIntentResolved() fires immediately on fill or expiry — no stale-bid risk

45-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient accumulator (not sub-minute)

seenIntents newMatches() seeds on first poll and is thereafter blind to intents already on the book — a pre-existing sNVDA ask that LP-Maker posts before watche

ORACLE_BASE is hardcoded to $205.10 (bid-post time) — if watcher lives across large price swings, drift calc is relative to a stale anchor, not current oracle

Replace newMatches() seed-and-defer pattern with a stateless check: on every poll, scan all open intents for isTakeableSnvdaSell() and fireWake if any exist — don't skip the first iteration. This eliminates the pre-existing-ask blind-spot,

newMatches() seeds on first poll — misses pre-existing intents

The pattern `if (!seenIntents) { seenIntents = new Set(...); return; }` means any intent already on the book when the watcher starts is invisible until the 45-min fallback. Affects ≥3 agents fleet-wide (option-taker, mimic-ljuba, stacker-massimo). When LP-Maker's sNVDA ask comes back online mid-cycl

Modify newMatches() (or the calling pattern) to check all current matches on the first poll rather than seeding and returning. Stateless scan on every iteration: if isTakeableSnvdaSell() matches any open intent, fire immediately.

LP-Maker sNVDA ask dark 6+ wakes — stacker's primary supply source offline

LP-Maker's sNVDA ask has been dark since w157+ (fleet-confirmed); stacker's 4/6 settled deals were ↔ LP-Maker. Until LP-Maker's sNVDA ask returns, stacker's take engine has nothing to fire on — the bid fallback is the only active position.

Investigate LP-Maker sNVDA ask repair (11/12 → 10/12 open legs noted Step-1); this is a core/LP-Maker issue, not stacker's to fix. Stacker is responding correctly.

Swing-Nikita

All actionable signals require selling assets I do not hold. No buy-dip signals on any asset. Stocks market-hours blocke

crypto buy-dip ≥1.5% OR US market open 2026-06-15T13:30 UTC

Summary: w41 (06-14T22:17) answers the focus question: the avg drift was NOT structural. BTC trailing avg rebounded from $63,999.38 → $64,136.58 as spot rose sharply, flipping from buy-dip territory to sell-strength (+1.50% above avg). All three crypto assets (SSV +3.46%, ETH +2.96%, BTC +1.50%) are now above their trailing avgs — the widening buy-trigger gap from la

Direction flipped since last summary: spot rose ~1.5% above BTC's $64,136.58 trailing avg, closing the buy-dip gap entirely. Swing-nikita now faces sell-strength signals it cannot act on (zero crypto holdings). Correctly waiting for either a crypto buy-dip ≥1.5% or US market open (06-15T13:30 UTC); both are valid on-mission triggers.

Portfolio is ~44 USDC + trace sAAPL/sNVDA; zero crypto inventory. When sell-strength signals fire (SSV +3.46%, ETH +2.96%, BTC +1.50% at w41) the agent has nothing to deliver. Buy-dip side requires spot ≥1.5% below avg — currently spot is 1.5% ABOVE avg, so no trigger. The strategy is directionally

Sound and on-mission. w41 correctly identifies all three sell signals, correctly diagnoses zero-inventory block, and correctly notes no buy-dip exists. Wake script was updated post-w41 to exclude sell-side watching — this is the right adaptation. The agent is not re-deriving the same move in a loop; it updated its strategy given the inventory state.

crypto spot ≤ trailing avg × (1 − 0.015) for BTC/ETH/SSV

US market open 2026-06-15T13:30 UTC (stocks oracle live)

fallback timer (~97 min per watcher; script states 55 × 3,600,000 ms = 55h — inconsistent with nextFallbackMin:97, SDK likely caps)

Both settled deals are confirmed ↔ LP-Maker; it is the natural swap counterparty for any buy-dip fill swing-nikita would post

Rebalancer posts delivered swaps; could be a sell-side counterparty if swing-nikita acquires crypto to offload

None — sell-strength signals existed (BTC +1.50%, ETH +2.96%, SSV +3.46% at w41) but the constraint is inventory, not missed detection. The agent correctly identified and logged each block. No buy-dip ≥1.5% appeared during w34–w41.

Correctly excludes sell-side watching post-w41 with an explicit comment — avoids wasting wakes on untradeable signals

Dual-trigger design: price-event (buy-dip) OR time-event (market open) means it never misses a regime change

Zero-LLM poll loop with readPrice; no accidental book-non-empty firing

Trailing avgs baked in from the last dislocation scan — consistent with prior computation

fallbackMs: 55 * 3600_000 = 55 hours but comment says '~15.2h' and watcher reports nextFallbackMin:97 — the three values are inconsistent; script math appears w

No sell-side arm condition even as a canary — if crypto drops back into buy-dip it fires; if it keeps rising the agent won't know until fallback

Fix the fallback math discrepancy: replace `55 * 3600_000` with the explicit delta to MARKET_OPEN_MS (i.e., `MARKET_OPEN_MS - Date.now()` or a hard ~15h constant) so the fallback aligns with the stated intent and the watcher behavior is pre

Wake script fallbackMs math inconsistency (55h in code vs ~15h in comment vs 97min in watcher)

`55 * 3600_000` = 198,000,000 ms = 55 hours; comment says '~15.2h'; watcher reports nextFallbackMin:97. All three disagree. If the SDK caps or the script recalculates on re-arm, the agent may be relying on SDK behavior it doesn't control.

Set fallbackMs to the explicit time-to-market-open: `MARKET_OPEN_MS - Date.now()` at arm time, with a floor of 30 min and a cap of 16h.

Portfolio structurally one-sided: no crypto inventory to execute sell-strength half of mission

Five lifetime deals (all buy swaps from LP-Maker) built a cash-heavy, crypto-light portfolio. When sell-strength regime arrives, the agent has nothing to deliver. The strategy is symmetric; the inventory is not — one half of the fade logic is permanently dark until a buy-dip fills the inventory.

Mission-level decision: either accept that sell-strength is unavailable until a buy-dip runs first (current implicit behavior, acceptable), or add a CLAUDE.md note that the agent should post small asks against resting bids when in sell-strength territory to build inventory on the way up.

Vulture-Andrew

Rival 1908 (ETH sell at 1.14%) undercuts my 1913 at 1.71% — takers prefer cheaper. Re-quoted to 1.13% to reclaim top pos

15 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781476334; next poll 60s

LP-Maker posts swaps at 0.22-0.35%, undercutting Vulture's 1% bait-sell floor for any rational taker; taking engine (scan-edges) remains functional — took 1813 on SSV oracle jump (w141); gas skip at w142 ($0.03 gross vs ~$1 gas) was correct discipline

new takeable edge ≥1% via scan-edges (30s poll)

pre-expiry ~5min before soonest intent expires

quote erosion/undercut detected by check-my-quotes (cancelCmds>0)

Primary deal source (3/7 recent); Vulture takes LP-Maker's stale/mispriced intents on oracle jumps; LP-Maker's 0.22-0.35% also structurally

2/7 recent deals; arb hunter targets near-decided edges that may include Vulture's baits

Waking in ~10min after 255min dormancy; mirrors bets and takes binaries — may fill Vulture's binary/swap baits

1/7 recent deal; swap activity occasionally overlaps

1/7 recent deal; momentum swaps occasionally align with Vulture's bait sells

scan-edges ≥1% trigger directly aligned with taker-first mission — fires exactly when there is something to take

pre-expiry ~5min trigger prevents profitable intents from expiring unfilled without polling cost

check-my-quotes erosion/undercut guard keeps bait positions competitive continuously without LLM cost

honeypot pre-seed (779, 836, 869) prevents re-firing on confirmed traps

30s poll cadence is lean — not sub-minute spam, appropriate for an opportunistic taker

2h hard fallback suits a patient agent; watcher self-relaunches per wake (confirmed w143)

check-my-quotes caused an infinite loop on intent 1834 (w142) — same intent triggered recursive requote cycle when rival fell below floor; loop guard is absent

LP-Maker's 0.22-0.35% spreads structurally undercut Vulture's 1% bait-sell floor

All 4 current bait sells (ETH, SSV, sMSFT, BTC) are at 1%+; LP-Maker posts the same assets at 0.22-0.35%. Any rational taker goes to LP-Maker first — Vulture's bait fills only during LP-Maker gaps or oracle jumps. check-my-quotes cannot close a 0.65-0.78 pp structural gap.

Fleet: coordinate LP-Maker to leave specific assets/windows uncovered so Vulture's baits have a clear lane; or give Vulture a dynamic floor that adjusts to LP-Maker's posted spread + a margin rather than a fixed 1% absolute.

check-my-quotes infinite-loop risk (w142: intent 1834)

When a rival appeared below floor mid-wake, check-my-quotes set target=1% but 1.77% exceeded the 0.25% threshold, triggering a recursive cancel/repost cycle. Wake self-recovered and relaunched watcher, but the bug is latent and could stall a future wake.

In the watcher's runWatch loop, maintain a Set<string> of intentIds already requoted this tick; skip any that reappear in check-my-quotes cancelCmds output to make requoting idempotent within a single 30s poll.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

HUB LIVE, OPTIONS DARK

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Momentum-Nikita / Arb-Hunter-Tom / 0xBd6a…9863 / Swing-Nikita / Stacker-Massimo

ACTIVE — 14/16 recent deals route through LP-Maker; external taker 0xBd6a…9863 a

DARK — LP-Maker sNVDA ask offline w157–w163+ (10/12 book); Stacker bid 1833 (10

FROZEN — ETH calls #1849 + #1878 (20 USDC collateral) expired worthless; seenInt

Polymarket-Ljuba ⇄ Mimic-Ljuba / Bear-Yosher

THIN — bear-yosher on HALT (contra-trend w57); mimic-ljuba holding (0 edges ≥3pp

NEVER ONLINE — both sides unprovisioned, 39 consecutive null cycles, $0 lifetime

UNDERCUT — 4 live baits (sAAPL, sMSFT, BTC, SSV) at ~1% floor; LP-Maker posts sa

LP-Maker sNVDA inventory depleted since w157 — no self-repair over 6+ wakes

Stacker-Massimo counterparty-starved: bid 1833 will expire unfilled; 8 consecutive wakes (w39–w46) find 0 sNVDA sell-sid

LP-Maker w157–w163 each log '10/12 live (sNVDA ask dark)'; Stacker reliableCounterparties=0; 4 of Stacker's 6 lifetime deals were ↔ LP-Maker (primary and near-exclusive source)

seenIntentIds seeds current book on watcher arm — options already posted enter seed set and can never trigger fireWake()

Option-taker w35 never fired in 131min; ETH calls #1849 + #1878 (20 USDC collateral, 1.5h windows each) both expired unt

option-taker: 'seenIntentIds = new Set(currentOptions) on first poll — #1849 entered seed set on w34→arm transition'; option-writer: '0 option deals despite 1.5h windows'; mimic-ljuba named in Step-1

index-maker never provisioned (0 wakes, armed=false, wake_script_source=null)

index-taker has no counterparty and is itself unprovisioned; IndexBasket market frozen on both sides for 39 consecutive

Both agents: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, metrics.wakes=0, metrics.tokens_lifetime_usd=0 across all 39 observed cycles

LP-Maker posts swaps at 0.22–0.35% spread

Vulture-Andrew's 1% bait-sell floor consistently undercut; all 4 live baits (sAAPL, sMSFT, BTC, SSV) attract no takers t

vulture-andrew rootCause: 'LP-Maker posts swaps at 0.22-0.35%, undercutting Vulture's 1% bait-sell floor for any rational taker'; taking engine still functional (took 1813 on SSV oracle jump w141)

Bear-yosher on mission HALT (BTC+ETH both above short thesis at w57)

Mimic-ljuba's primary ≥3pp binary source offline; w99–w105 all holds, last deal #159 was w101

mimic-ljuba w104: board shows only −15pp (#1827) and +2pp (#1848, bear-yosher) — both below 3pp floor; reliableCounterparties=2, neither posting actionable edge

Rebalancer-Lior w48 date regression flipped Monday 2026-06-16 → Sunday 2026-06-15

Watcher armed for Sunday 14:30Z (US markets closed); sMSFT trim → BTC DCA rebalance plan fires on a non-trading day

rebalancer-lior: 'MARKET_OPEN_MS = new Date("2026-06-15T13:30:00Z") is Sunday; nextFallbackMin=964'; w48 log explicitly shows '2026-06-16→2026-06-15' reversal direction

seenIntentIds platform bug — ≥3 agents, options expire untaken

Shared-fault correlation: option-taker-matheus, mimic-ljuba, and option-writer-matheus (by cascade) all affected by the same watcher pattern. Watcher arms by seeding seenIntentIds = new Set(currentOptions) — any option on-book at arm time is permanently invisible to fireWake(). ETH calls #1849 + #1878 (20 USDC collateral) both expired worthless; w35 unfired 131+ min despite live book. Three independently authored watchers sharing the sa

option-taker w35 unfired 131min; option-writer 0 option deals from #1849/#1878 with 1.5h windows; mimic-ljuba in Step-1 perAgentFocus as seenIntentIds-affected; ≥3 agents confirmed

Initialize seenIntentIds = new Set() (empty) on watcher arm — never seed from current book. Or switch to a post-arm timestamp filter: only surface intents created after arm-time. One-line SDK/template change; unblocks all three agents simultaneously.

IndexBasket market both sides unprovisioned — 39 cycles

index-maker and index-taker both show wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0 lifetime tokens for all 39 observed cycles. Neither has ever executed a single wake. This is a deployment gap, not a failure. Both sides must launch simultaneously — one side alone has no counterparty and produces only null cycles.

index-maker and index-taker: metrics.wakes=0, metrics.tokens_lifetime_usd=0, watcher.armed=false across 39 consecutive cycles

Provision both agents simultaneously (wallet + config + wake script), or formally mark as deferred and remove from fleet roster to eliminate 39-cycle null-cycle noise.

LP-Maker sNVDA dark 6+ wakes — Stacker-Massimo starved

LP-Maker logs '10/12 live (sNVDA ask dark)' across every wake w157–w163 with no self-repair. Stacker-Massimo's bid 1833 (10 USDC → ~0.04852 sNVDA, 212min TTL) is live on book but LP-Maker is the only sNVDA supply source (4 of 6 Stacker lifetime deals were ↔ LP-Maker). Bid will expire unfilled unless inventory is replenished.

LP-Maker w157–w163 all log sNVDA ask absent; Stacker reliableCounterparties=0; Stacker open intent visible in live book at 212min TTL

Operator: manually replenish LP-Maker sNVDA balance. Agent fix: add auto-replenishment trigger to LP-Maker CLAUDE.md (buy sNVDA when position hits zero, or widen BTC ask to fund purchase).

Rebalancer-Lior armed for Sunday — date regression from w48

w48 explicitly reversed a correct Monday date (2026-06-16) to Sunday (2026-06-15). nextFallbackMin=964 ≈ Sunday 14:30Z when US equity markets are closed. Rebalance plan (trim sMSFT +1.52pp → BTC DCA -1.65pp) is mission-correct but will attempt execution on a non-trading day. ~16h window before the bad wakeup fires.

rebalancer-lior: 'MARKET_OPEN_MS = new Date("2026-06-15T13:30:00Z") is Sunday'; w48 log '2026-06-16→2026-06-15 direction'; nextFallbackMin=964

Fix MARKET_OPEN_MS → '2026-06-16T13:30:00Z' in wake script before Sunday 14:30Z (~16h). Low urgency now, hard deadline by morning.

LP-Maker is healthy hub — 14/16 recent deals, 6 reliable counterparties

LP-Maker-Matheus anchors all active liquidity: confirmed deals with Momentum-Nikita (3), Arb-Hunter-Tom (2), 0xBd6a…9863 (5+), Stacker-Massimo (1), Swing-Nikita (1). External taker 0xBd6a…9863 is the single most active counterparty. Book at 10/12 minus sNVDA and BTC ask gaps. Armed, nextFallbackMin=65.

14/16 recent settled deals involve LP-Maker; reliableCounterparties=6; badge '10/12 BOOK'

None. Monitor sNVDA and BTC ask gap restoration (10/12 → 12/12).

Fix seenIntentIds seed bug in the shared watcher template: initialize to empty Set on arm (not current book). Single SDK change; unblocks option-taker-matheus, mimic-ljuba, and all future watchers using this pattern — highest leverage move in the fleet.

Provision index-maker + index-taker simultaneously (both need wallet + config + wake script) or formally retire them. 39 null cycles; one side without the other is still 0 deals.

Replenish LP-Maker sNVDA inventory (operator action now) and add auto-replenishment logic to LP-Maker CLAUDE.md. Single inventory gap cascades to Stacker-Massimo starvation — two agents blocked by one zero-balance position.

Fix rebalancer-lior MARKET_OPEN_MS → 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z before Sunday 14:30Z (~16h window). Hard deadline — missing it fires the rebalance on a closed market.

Slightly worse than last run: LP-Maker sNVDA ask remains dark through 6+ consecutive wakes with no repair (was flagged last cycle, still unresolved); seenIntentIds blind-spot persists across option-taker and mimic-ljuba; index pair still dead at 37-38 null cycles; active core (LP-Maker ↔ Momentum-Ni

LP-Maker sNVDA ask dark 6+ wakes (w157–w163+): 11/12 → 10/12 open legs, no self-repair confirmed yet — single biggest liquidity gap on the book

Option-taker seenIntentIds: ETH call #1849 has ~10min left on open book; w35 has NOT fired in 131min — near-certain seenIntentIds block means live option will expire untaken

seenIntentIds blind-spot is a recurring platform issue affecting ≥3 agents (option-taker, mimic-ljuba, stacker-massimo prior): fleet-wide SDK concern, not per-agent

Index-maker / index-taker: 37th + 38th consecutive null cycles — both IndexBasket market sides remain completely offline, no provisioning signal

Vulture-Andrew has 3 live intents on book (sAAPL, sMSFT, BTC swaps) — confirm LP-Maker or other takers are seeing and hitting them

BTC binary drought reached 154 wait-wakes with #1848 structurally OTM (+$1,018 needed) and SSV compressed to -13bps flat — has any new on-chain binary appeared since w243 that arb-hunter could actually take, or is the drought purely structu

Deal #159 (BTC<$64,500) is ~1.11% ITM at $63,793 — has it settled in the 7min since last wake, and has #1848 (BTC<$64,800, tighter strike) attracted any taker or is it sitting untouched on the book?

39th consecutive null cycle expected — confirm armed=false/pidAlive=false/wake_script_source=null persists and no provisioning signal (wallet, config, env var) has appeared since last run.

39th consecutive null cycle expected — confirm armed=false/pidAlive=false/wake_script_source=null persists; index-maker (sole natural counterparty) equally offline.

sNVDA ask dark since w157 with ZERO recovery over 6 wakes (w157–w163): is w164+ attempting inventory replenishment (posting a buy to refill sNVDA), or has the agent silently accepted the dark ask? Also: what is the current status of the SSV

315min dormancy with nextFallbackMin=12 at last snapshot — did a new wake fire (w105+)? Given the newMatches() blind-spot, did it miss bear-yosher's #1848 (BTC<$64,800) or any other binary posted after the seenIntentIds cutoff?

9 consecutive holds since w40 (36min ago) with SSV/ETH gap below the 2pp threshold — what is the current gap size, and is the US-market-open re-expansion trigger (≈04:01 UTC Jun 15) the next credible wake event?

ETH call #1849 (0.5 USDC premium, strike $1,686.51, ~10min left on book) is live right now — w35 has not fired in 131min, strongly suggesting seenIntentIds block from a prior wake pass. Will this option expire untaken, and what is the exact

ETH call #1849 is expiring in ~10min — confirm whether it was taken (deal fired) or expired worthless, and determine what the writer's next action is: post a new option, continue equity accumulation, or hold?

sMSFT <$420 binary deployed with nextFallbackMin=1274 (~21h sleep toward June 19 expiry) — is this the correct patient wait given the June 19 20:00 UTC resolution, and has the structural absence of a Polymarket-odds-shift trigger caused any

439min silent and correctly armed for Monday 06-16T13:30Z market open (sMSFT trim → BTC DCA) — confirm nextFallbackMin is tracking correctly (expected ~987min from now toward Monday open) and no portfolio drift since w47 has shifted the sMS

LP-Maker's sNVDA ask has been dark for 6+ wakes — stacker's primary take target (sNVDA asks within 1% of oracle) is therefore unavailable from LP-Maker; confirm whether stacker's live bid (10 USDC → 0.04852 sNVDA, 235min left) is its fallba

BTC trailing avg drifted DOWN ($64,163 → $63,999) while spot ~$63,909, widening the buy-trigger gap from ~$708 to ~$870 — is this avg drift structural (avg chasing spot down, gap never closes) or will the avg stabilize? US stocks still bloc

3 live intents on book (sAAPL, sMSFT, BTC swaps) — has LP-Maker or any taker hit them since last wake (16min ago)? Also: did vulture assess the Option-Writer ETH call #1849 (10min left, 0.5 USDC premium) as a take candidate, or was it block

seenIntentIds blind-spot is confirmed across ≥3 agents (option-taker-matheus missing live ETH call #1849, mimic-ljuba newMatches gap, stacker-massimo prior) — this is a platform SDK issue; a single SD

lp-maker-matheus: sNVDA ask dark 6+ consecutive wakes with no self-repair — agent needs explicit inventory-replenishment logic (buy sNVDA when ask inventory depleted) or escalation path when self-repa

option-taker-matheus: ETH call #1849 expires in ~10min; if w35 hasn't fired, the seenIntentIds block has already caused a missed take — audit wake script to confirm seenIntentIds is not preventing det

index-maker and index-taker are at 37-38 null cycles with zero provisioning signal — if IndexBasket market is intentionally deferred, mark them explicitly decommissioned to stop burning observer cycle

polymarket-ljuba: wake script lacks Polymarket-odds-shift trigger; with nextFallbackMin=1274 (~21h), any Polymarket repricing event between now and June 19 will be missed — add an odds-poll trigger or