account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

bestTake=null on both surfaces. 0 binary bets. 0 fundable swap edges ≥10bps. Oracle +36bps above CEX on SSV but no poste

new mSSV intent with ≥10bps edge vs live CEX (buy or sell) OR binary bet OR 30-min fallback

All 9 visible settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (8) + Rebalancer-Lior (1); LP-Maker active at 103 deals but not posting SSV swaps with ≥10bps above-CEX edge arb-hunter can take; bear-yosher (primary binary bet poster) crashed 1112m — zero binary bets on book at w197–w204; oracle gap dissolved w20

New intent ID above HIGH_WATER=1383 with SSV buy-edge (taker pays USDC, receives mSSV ≥10bps below CEX) or sell-edge (taker gives mSSV, receives USDC ≥10bps abo

New intent matching BINARY_BET_HASHES template (fires immediately on appearance)

8 of 9 visible settled deals; active at 103 total; but current posted intents don't clear the 10bps edge floor for arb-hunter

1 settled deal; posts SSV swaps when rebalancing; armed and counting down to US market open ~13:30 UTC — likely to post new intents then

Primary binary bet poster — arb-hunter's binary surface depends on bear-yosher being alive; deal #75 still in limbo

Posts sharp/baited intents that could create exploitable gaps; has 38 deals of history

HIGH_WATER + seenIds baseline prevents stale-intent fires on startup — correct for a pure-taker that must not re-evaluate already-processed intents

Monitors both SSV buy-edge AND sell-edge directions — catches whichever side LP-Maker or others happen to post

Binary bet hashes hard-coded as immediate wake trigger — zero latency on the agent's primary high-value surface

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for an arb hunter (not sub-minute polling, not hours-patient)

SSV CEX feed cached with 30s TTL — avoids Binance rate-limiting on tight poll loops

Binary bet wake fires on appearance alone, not near-expiry — agent's main loop will filter, but causes unnecessary wakes on far-dated bets (low cost, acceptable

ORACLE_SYMBOL map only covers BTC/ETH — if binary bets on other assets appear, the oracle mismatch check is blind to them

Wake script source truncated at buy-edge check — cannot verify the full USDC→mSSV edge logic, but visible structure is consistent with mission

Binary bet supply chain offline

bear-yosher (primary binary bet poster) crashed 1112m, vulture-andrew crashed 913m — arb-hunter's highest-value surface (binary bets) has had zero new supply for the entire prior-run and current-run window; w197–w204 all log '0 binary bets on book'

Operator restart of bear-yosher unblocks arb-hunter's primary surface immediately; no agent-side change needed

LP-Maker swap intents not clearing arb-hunter's 10bps floor

LP-Maker is active (103 deals, 10 open intents) but its posted SSV intents are priced inside the 10bps edge floor — arb-hunter's only active liquid counterparty isn't generating exploitable gaps on the swap surface; all new mSSV intents (#1364/#1365, etc.) log as taker-negative

No agent fix warranted — LP-Maker is correctly pricing near mid; the fix is binary bet supply (above) or a new taker-edge-aware maker posting above-CEX SSV intents

Portfolio USDC balance ($84.01) idle, no deployed capital

Agent holds $84.01 USDC + 1.7714 SSV (~$100.47 portfolio) with 0 open intents and 0 fills in 46+ wakes; realized PnL $0.48 on $7.64 lifetime token spend — marginal alpha at current opportunity rate

No immediate change — agent is correctly waiting for edge; consider whether mission scope could expand to other asset pairs if SSV arb remains structurally thin

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

armed=false, pidAlive=false since before deal-75 expiry; settled_deals frozen at 17 across consecutive runs; deal 75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed with no settlement call; all 3 live deals ↔ Mimic-Ljuba (health:ok) who as losing counterparty has no incentive to initiate settlement

Intent 869 fill/expiry (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet on book (newMatches on BINARY_BET_HASH)

Deal 75 near-expiry at epoch 1781139624 - 300s

sole counterparty on all 3 live deals; health:ok and active (16 deals), but as the losing side on in-the-money bets has no incentive to call

could absorb basket swap intents once bear-yosher restarts and recycles locked capital; not relevant to deal settlement

would take near-decided BinaryBets bear-yosher could post once restarted; not useful while crashed

Adverse price triggers (+1.5% ETH/BTC) correctly guard the bear thesis — fires before conviction is invalidated

Deal-75 near-expiry anchor (fire 5 min early) was exactly right for mission: claim settlement promptly

New BinaryBet detection via templateHash is precise — won't fire on irrelevant intents

4h fallback prevents permanent silence if all other triggers miss

Zero-LLM, runWatchLoop pattern is correct

Process is dead — script is irrelevant until agent is restarted

No self-healing: if the process dies, nothing re-arms it; the 4h fallback only helps if the process is alive

No process resurrection for crashed watchers

bear-yosher has been dark 994 min. The watcher script is well-designed but a dead process cannot re-arm itself. bear-yosher, stacker-massimo, and vulture-andrew all share this failure mode — three agents dark simultaneously indicates a platform gap, not three independent agent bugs.

Add a fleet-level supervisor (e.g. a cron job or watchdog) that polls pidAlive and auto-relaunches watcher processes that have died.

Deal 75 settlement unclaimed — capital locked

betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed; BTC was 3.49% below strike at w39, making deal 75 in-the-money for bear-yosher. Mimic-Ljuba (losing side) will not self-settle. Capital (~$48–52 USDC) locked in 3 live deals cannot recycle into new positions until settled.

Manual restart of bear-yosher; first action should be to call settlement on deal 75 and the 2 other expired BinaryBets before posting new intents.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 23rd consecutive null cycle — state bit-for-bit identical to all prior runs. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No provisioning event detected this cycle. Not a crash; never initialized. Index-taker is in the same undeployed state, so the entire IndexBasket market segmen

Zero change since last run. 0 tokens lifetime, 0 wakes, null wake_script, watcher fully dark (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). No operator provisioning signal has occurred. This is structural non-deployment, not a crash — the agent has never run.

wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0, settled_deals=not-indexed — all null/zero across all 23 observed cycles. Zero IndexBasket intents in the full 1383-intent funnel (Step-1 context). index-taker is equally undeployed, confirming the e

N/A — agent has never produced a reasoning trace. No LLM calls, no wake script, no intent posted. Cannot assess reasoning quality until deployed.

MISSING: no wake script loaded — nothing fires this agent

MISSING: no fallback timer — no scheduled retry path exists

MISSING: no wallet address — cannot post intents even if woken

Designed to take the SHORT side of index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents — the canonical counterparty pair, but also undeployed (health=unk

unmeasurable: agent has no wallet and has never posted an intent; index-taker (its only natural counterparty) is also undeployed, so even a provisioned index-maker would face zero takers today

No wake script exists — wake_script_source=null

No watcher armed — no trigger path of any kind

No wallet address — cannot interact with the chain

Operator must provision a wallet and deploy a wake script before any analysis of watcher fit-to-mission is possible; the single highest-leverage move is wallet initialization.

Agent never initialized — no wallet, no wake script

23 consecutive null cycles. wake_script_source=null, watcher fully dark, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. No provisioning event detected in any observed cycle.

Operator action required: provision a wallet address, deploy a wake script, and arm the watcher. Until then this agent cannot be analyzed further.

IndexBasket market segment entirely dark — both maker and taker undeployed

index-maker and index-taker are the only two agents for this market segment; both show health=unknown, 0 deals, null state. Zero IndexBasket intents appear in the 1383-intent funnel. The market has never cleared.

Both agents must be deployed together — deploying only index-maker produces no deals if index-taker remains uninitialized.

Zero change since last run. 0 tokens lifetime, 0 wakes, null wake_script, watcher fully dark (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). No operator provisioning signal has occurred. This is structural non-deployment, not a crash — the agent has never run.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 23rd consecutive null cycle — zero delta confirmed again. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, $0 lifetime spend. Focus question answered: index-maker remains in null/undeployed state (health=unknown, 0 deals, 0 wakes) and no IndexBasket intents exist anywhere in the 1400-intent funnel — confirmed dead pair. Noth

Index-taker has never run a single wake cycle across its entire lifetime ($0, 0 wakes). Its sole counterparty index-maker is equally uninitialized. The 1400-intent funnel contains zero IndexBasket intents from any source — this is a fully undeployed feature pair, not a struggling agent.

index-maker: health=unknown, 0 deals, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null. 1400-intent funnel: 0 IndexBasket intents posted by any party, ever. Index-taker fail-closed design means it correctly does nothing when no auditable LONG IndexBasket intent exists.

Unmeasurable — 0 wakes means no reasoning has ever executed. The mission design (audit-then-take, fail-closed) is sound, but the precondition (a live index-maker posting auditable IndexBasket intents) has never been met. No churn, no wrong-problem solving — simply never started.

MISSING: any wake trigger — wake_script_source=null, armed=false, no fallback scheduled

sole designed counterparty; posts LONG IndexBasket, index-taker takes SHORT side

none — zero IndexBasket intents exist in the 1400-intent funnel from any party; nothing was takeable

wake_script_source=null — no watcher deployed at all

armed=false, pidAlive=false — agent is fully dark with no restart mechanism

Deploy index-maker first; until it posts a live IndexBasket intent there is no correct wake trigger for index-taker to poll. Deploying index-taker's watcher in isolation is wasted work.

Index pair fully undeployed — both sides dark

index-maker and index-taker have never woken, never spent tokens, and no IndexBasket intents exist in the entire 1400-intent funnel. This is a feature pair awaiting operator deployment, not an agent in operation.

Operator action required: deploy and fund index-maker first (wallet provisioning + wake script), confirm it posts at least one IndexBasket intent, then deploy index-taker's watcher to poll for it.

Dead pair consumes roster slot with zero liquidity contribution

23 consecutive null cycles with zero activity. The IndexBasket market cannot form without both sides. No other agent in the fleet trades IndexBasket, so there is no partial-path workaround.

Prioritize index-maker deployment or deprioritize the index pair entirely to free operator attention for the 3 active crashed agents (Bear-Yosher 1172 min, Stacker-Massimo 1022 min, Vulture-Andrew 973 min) which have real deal history worth recovering.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Cluster I was 261-513s from expiry. Reposted at current oracle mids. SSV bid widened to 50bps (base35+skew15, short SSV)

Cluster L pre-expiry ts 1781162712 (~07:15 UTC) or oracle guard or fillable intent | 45min fallback

Summary: Fleet's sole functioning liquidity hub. BTC ask gap RESOLVED in w88 (posted #1278 at +15.1bps, 12/12 full book achieved and held through w89/w90) — the key open question from last run is answered. Open intents consolidated 15→11 confirming legacy dup cleanup is complete. Deals ticked 95→96 (+1); Arb-Hunter-Tom resurrection adds a net-new active counterparty.

96 deals, 12/12 full book, $11.85 realized PnL on $700 base — LP is performing its mission. BTC ask gap closed in w88; 15→11 dup consolidation confirms book is clean. The one active threat is concurrent-session inversion recurring on every oracle move, causing arb bleed and wasted wake cycles rather than fills.

12/12 quotes posted; 6 active counterparties (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, 0xBd6a…9863, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita); deal velocity limited by taker arrivals not LP quality. w85–w90 show 0 fills across multiple wakes despite tight quotes — thin taker side, not mispricing.

Sound and on-mission. w88 correctly diagnosed concurrent-session inversion (cancelled #1272 SSV +9.8bps inverted, #1274 dup sNVDA bid, #1273 dup SSV ask) and resolved it in one pass, achieving 12/12 full book. volTerm adjustments are quantitative (ETH 43.8bps, BTC 37.9bps, SSV 49.5bps) and mission-appropriate. Not churning — each wake either fills a gap, clears a stale quote, or correctly conclude

Cluster expiry guard: EXPIRY_FIRE_TS_SEC=1781133228 (~23:18 UTC) fires 5min before #1281–#1286 cluster expires

New fillable swap: newMatches() detects net-new intents where posterWants ∈ HOLD set

MISSING: inversion/spread-check trigger — concurrent-session inversions detected only at next poll (60s lag), causing arb bleed per event

Active arb taker; resurrection confirmed armed=true/pidAlive=true; appears 8× in recent deal list including w84 arb fill

Most frequent recent counterparty (~8 fills in tail); health=stuck but still settling LP intents

5 recent fills but current 4.96 USDC intent is sub-LP-minimum lot — won't clear until lior posts ≥12 USDC

2 recent fills; w23 20 USDC intent on book (18 min left) is above minimum

External wallet; 7 fills in recent tail — reliable taker source outside named fleet

Rebalancer-Lior's 4.96 USDC→BTC intent is sub-LP-minimum and correctly skipped. Swing-Nikita's 20 USDC intent (w23, 18 min left) is above minimum — watcher's newMatches() should fire on it if posted after last wake. No evidence of LP missing a fillable above-threshold intent.

Expiry cluster guard pins exact ts 1781133228 (5min before #1281–#1286 cluster) — no stale quotes

newMatches() on HOLD set: only fires on intents LP can profitably fill, not its own stale posts

60s poll interval — not sub-minute; patient cadence appropriate for 22-min avg gap

No oracle price guards (per playbook rule — avoids loop storms)

50min fallback ensures watcher doesn't go dark between clusters

No spread/inversion check: concurrent-session inversions (flagged w84, w87, w88) are discovered only at next 60s poll tick, allowing ~1min of arb exposure per e

Add an inversion detector in the watch loop: if any own bid's price ≥ own ask's price for the same asset (readable from open intents), fireWake('spread inverted — concurrent session detected') immediately rather than waiting up to 60s. This

Concurrent-session inversion recurs on every oracle move

w84, w87, w88 all report concurrent session posting inverted bids when oracle moves positive. Each event costs ~$0.076 arb loss plus a cleanup wake. Root: two watcher sessions posting simultaneously create crossed spreads. Watcher detects it reactively at next poll (up to 60s exposure).

Add inversion check in runWatchLoop body: compare own bid vs own ask prices per asset from readOpenIntents; fireWake immediately on cross. Also investigate why two concurrent watcher sessions arise — may need PID lock enforcement in armWatcher.

Token cost critical: $76.51/5h = 53.4% of pool

96 deals settling at $0.82/wake average; 87 wakes × $0.82 ≈ $71 but 5h cost is $76.51 with 80/87 repeat wakes. At this burn rate LP's token pool (~$143 implied at 53.4%) exhausts in ~5h. Repeat-wake rate 92% (80/87) suggests most wakes are maintenance not fills.

Core/SDK: add per-agent token budget cap and alert threshold. Agent-side: w85 correctly no-ops when nothing actionable — ensure repeat-wake suppression logic is consistently applied to avoid unnecessary LLM calls on zero-action wakes.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Board empty of binary flow. No ≥3pp taker-edge opportunity. One deliberate move rule enforced.

new BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge (crypto 24/7, stocks 13:30–20:00 UTC Mon–Fri), or 60min fallback

Summary: 2 stale 'live' Bear-Yosher entries persist in settled_deals_detail (down from 3 last run, unchanged this run), but openExposureUsd=0 across w71/w72/w73 confirms no real economic exposure — deal #75 is settled/expired, the 'live' labels are a display artifact. Board has been empty of BinaryBets for 14 consecutive wakes (w60→w73); agent correctly holding $63.6

Deal #75 is settled (zero economic exposure across 3 wakes); the 'live' label is stale display data. Mimic has no actionable binary flow for 14 straight wakes — this is fully explained by Bear-Yosher and Vulture-Andrew both being hard-crashed. $63.62 USDC capital preserved intact, watcher fires in ~10 min.

Board structurally empty of BinaryBets w60–w73 (14 wakes); Bear-Yosher 1172 min dark (armed=false/pidAlive=false), Vulture-Andrew 973 min dark (armed=false/pidAlive=false) — the two agents responsible for most binary bet supply. Option-Writer-Matheus has a binary bet component but is not visibly pos

Sound, solving the right problem. The agent correctly identifies the board as structurally empty (not temporarily thin), holds full capital at zero exposure, and applies the ≥3pp edge floor discipline consistently. No churn in the economic sense — the 60 repeat wakes are zero-LLM fallback fires, not LLM-burn loops. The only mild concern is that 60 repeat wakes out of 91 (66%) is high, but this ref

New BinaryBet intent arrives on board (template hash 0x09cd...060c, newMatches pattern — baseline-seeded, won't fire on pre-existing entries)

60-minute fallback for market refresh (price moves, new flow)

Primary historical counterparty — 2 of 16 settled deals; posts BinaryBets Mimic mirrors/takes

HARD CRASHED — 1172 min dark, armed=fals

Posted bait BinaryBets (BTC, sMSFT, sAAPL, USDC→sNVDA) pre-crash; Mimic could take

HARD CRASHED — 973 min dark, armed=false

Has a contrarian BinaryBet component (30% of engine); not currently posting any binary bet visible on the board with ≥3pp edge

ok — but not producing actionable binary

Takes near-decided binaries, doesn't post them; same supply-starvation problem, not a source for Mimic

None — board confirmed empty of BinaryBets with ≥3pp taker edge for all 14 wakes (w60–w73). Nothing to take or mirror. Cannot measure missed opportunities further because the book genuinely has no qualifying flow.

Watches exactly the BinaryBet template hash — the one thing Mimic acts on

Uses newMatches with a baseline-seeded seen-set: fires on new arrivals only, won't trigger on stale book entries

Zero-LLM watcher — no token burn between wakes

60-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient copy-trader (crypto 24/7, stocks market-hours gated)

Armed + pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=10 — alive and imminently firing

No distinction between crypto-eligible and equity-hours BinaryBets — during off-hours the fallback fires but Mimic can't act on stock bets anyway; minor efficie

Add an inline comment (or label extension) noting when Bear-Yosher / Vulture-Andrew restart to signal that supply is likely to return — purely operational context, the logic itself is sound.

Stale 'live' labels on settled/expired deals

Two Bear-Yosher deals show status='live' in settled_deals_detail despite openExposureUsd=0 across multiple wakes. Deal #75 expired epoch ~Jun 11 00:58 UTC (6h+ ago) but was not updated. No economic impact but degrades observability and the board display.

Reconcile deal status against on-chain settlement in the data pipeline; any deal past its epoch deadline should be marked expired/settled regardless of counterparty ack.

Binary bet supply evaporated — two primary posters hard-crashed

Bear-Yosher (1172 min dark) and Vulture-Andrew (973 min dark) account for the vast majority of BinaryBet supply Mimic depends on. Both armed=false/pidAlive=false with zero restart signals. Mimic's correct behavior (hold) will persist until supply returns.

Operator restart of Bear-Yosher and/or Vulture-Andrew is the single highest-leverage action to unblock Mimic. No agent-level fix exists — this is a fleet supply problem.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

SSV decisive momentum leader both lookbacks. No SSV seller at fair price. Posting 8h intent sizes to liftable depth (~25

intent-1342 resolve / new SSV seller / US open 13:30 UTC / momentum ≥2pp shift / 9h fallback

Summary: Prior baseline-staleness concern (flagged at w17, ~428 min ago) is now resolved — agent executed aggressively through w18–w22, building SSV position to 8 tokens on a 10pp+ momentum signal (strongest in 22 wakes per w22 log). Portfolio at w22: $75.15 USDC + $7.44 BTC + $17.68 SSV. Open intent #1318 (25 USDC → 11.31 SSV at $2.21) is a resting order posted at w

Agent is healthy and executing correctly. The 10pp+ SSV momentum signal confirmed across 4 consecutive wakes (w19–w22) makes the prior staleness concern obsolete. The live risk is narrow: intent #1318 at $2.21/SSV has no oracle-price check in the watcher — a post-w22 SSV price move makes the posted rate quietly wrong without triggering a re-wake until expiry at ~08:24 UTC.

All 5 settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus (3), Rebalancer-Lior (1), LP-Maker again (1). Intent #1318 is a resting 25 USDC→11.31 SSV bid waiting for a SSV seller; no SSV sellers currently on book (watcher has not fired on newMatches). Market's fault — not agent's.

Sound and on-mission. w19–w22 show disciplined signal validation (fast + slow lookbacks both above 2pp threshold), momentum confirmation across multiple timeframes, and incremental position building with BTC laggard trimmed at oracle. No re-deriving-in-place churn. The one blind spot is rate-drift: intent is posted at a fixed $2.21/SSV with no re-pricing mechanism until expiry or a fallback wake f

intent #1318 resolved (filled or expired via ownIntentResolved poll every 60s)

new SSV seller appears on book (newMatches against isSSVSeller filter)

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 (effectiveDeadline = min(8h fallback, US_OPEN_MS))

MISSING: oracle price drift check — if SSV moves >1–2pp from $2.21 since w22, no early re-wake fires; intent silently mispriced until expiry

Sole active hub, 8 open intents, 3 of 5 momentum deals settled here; could hold SSV inventory

ok — active, 100 deals, reposts frequent

Settled 1 swap with momentum-nikita; DCA-style so may periodically give SSV for USDC

Takes SSV intents (buys SSV), doesn't give SSV — opposite direction to intent #1318

Fades dislocations — if SSV is stretched above trailing avg, swing-nikita may sell/give SSV

None identified. Arb-Hunter SSV gap (flagged in Step-1) is directionally opposite — Arb-Hunter takes SSV (wants SSV) not gives it, so no cross with intent #1318. Watcher is polling for new SSV sellers every 60s; if one appeared, it would have fired.

ownIntentResolved catches fill or expiry without waiting for fallback

newMatches + isSSVSeller filter directly serves the mission (take the next SSV seller)

US market open trigger correct — agent must re-rank with stocks when equities open

effectiveDeadline = min(fallback, US_OPEN_MS) cleanly prevents oversleeping past stocks

60s poll cadence appropriate — not sub-minute spam, actionable on book events

No oracle price drift check: intent #1318 posted at $2.21/SSV 25 min ago with no mechanism to detect SSV moving materially; if SSV is now $2.35, the resting bid

Watcher baseline (seenIntents) is set once at first loop — if watcher restarts mid-session, seenIntents resets and new-seller logic skips one tick

Add an oracle price check each loop iteration: if abs(currentSSVPrice - 2.21) / 2.21 > 0.015, call fireWake('SSV oracle drifted X% from posted rate — re-price intent'). This is the single highest-value change: it converts a 7.5h blind wait

Intent #1318 has no oracle-drift guard

Watcher polls for fill/expiry and new sellers but never compares current SSV oracle price to the posted $2.21 rate. A >1.5% move since w22 (25 min ago) makes the intent silently stale until it expires at ~08:24 UTC or fallback fires at ~08:30 UTC — wasting up to 7.5h of potential re-pricing.

In runWatchLoop body, after fetching belt: fetch SSV oracle price, compute drift from 2.21; if |drift| > 0.015 call fireWake with reason string. One oracle read per 60s loop tick.

seenIntents baseline resets on watcher restart

seenIntents is initialized to null and set on first loop tick. If the process restarts mid-session (as happened at w15), the first tick re-baselines and skips firing on any sellers already on book — a one-tick delay in a fast market.

Persist seenIntents to data/wake/seen-intents.json on each update and reload on startup; fall back to empty set if file missing (fire on all current sellers at first tick, which is acceptable).

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Cheap optionality: tight-to-the-money put with 24h tail, thin premium on a volatile stock (sNVDA). Probability of 0.20 d

All 4 settled deals trace to option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). Writer's nextFallbackMin=1144 confirms ~19h of silence ahead; 0 audited options on book for 201 min. Taker watcher polls every 60s and has not fired — book is genuinely empty.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f…ad63) — detected via 60s poll of open book

Settle window: nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956, ~17:37 UTC June 11 — 5 min before deal #118 expiry)

23h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1141, fires ~16:52 UTC June 11 — ~45 min before settle window)

Sole option supplier; all 4 deals sourced here. Writer is resting (~19h nextFallbackMin=1144) — next posts expected around w27/w28.

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents — could theoretically compete for the same intents, but does not supply options

Fires on new audited-hash option intents — exactly the signal this taker needs; can't fire on generic book activity

Settle-window trigger (MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS) aligns the 23h fallback with deal #118 expiry — agent wakes just before settlement, not randomly

First-poll baseline (seenIntentIds=null guard) prevents false-fires on stale intents already taken

60s cadence appropriate for an option book that posts infrequently

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to deal #118's window. After deals #118/#119 settle, any future deal taken will have a different expiry — the settle-

Hardcoded settle-window timestamp goes stale after new deals

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 targets deal #118's expiry. Once #118/#119 settle and the agent takes a new option (different expiry), this check will never fire (past timestamp) — settle-timing precision is lost for all future deals.

Dynamically derive MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS each poll: read open deals, take min(expiry) - 300s. Store in a variable updated each loop iteration.

Single-supplier dependency on option-writer-matheus

4/4 deals from one counterparty. Writer is in a ~19h rest cycle (nextFallbackMin=1144). If writer crashes or shifts mission, taker has zero supply. No other agent currently posts audited-hash options.

Encourage a second option writer on the same audited template hash, or have option-writer-matheus post smaller batches more frequently so the taker has a steadier flow.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Engine 1 paused since wake 38 due to 7 consecutive unfilled options (wakes 26–37) exhausting buyer-demand signal. Market

vol ≥1%, ranking rotation, or new buyer option intent (or 120-min fallback)

Summary: Now w78, still ~41 consecutive monitor-only wakes since Engine 1 paused at w37. The 'custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus' entry in settled_deals_detail confirms one sNVDA option (likely #118 call, ~17:37 UTC per prior context) did settle this cycle. Despite the settlement, Engine 2 inventory remains 69.7% vs 70% target (±0.3% — well inside the ±5% rebalanc

One sNVDA option settled with Option-Taker-Matheus (confirmed in settled_deals_detail), but it did not perturb the portfolio: Engine 2 remains 69.7% vs 70% target, Engine 1 still has zero buyer signal after 41 wakes. Book $96.47, drawdown −3.53% vs −20% halt — stable and correctly waiting. The second sNVDA option (#119 put, ~18:31 UTC) has not yet appeared in settled data.

Engine 1 has written 0 new options since w37 because 7 prior writes (w26–w37) went unfilled — zero buyer option intents on book for 41 consecutive wakes. Option-Taker-Matheus is the sole confirmed buyer (4 deals total) but has not posted a new buying intent since the last settlement.

Sound and disciplined. The agent correctly distinguishes Engine 1 (option-writing, needs buyer demand signal) from Engine 2 (portfolio rebalance, needs drift ≥±5%). It is not re-deriving cold each wake — w71–w78 consistently reference the same pause logic and correct thresholds. The risk: it is solving the right problem (buyer-demand gate) but the gate condition 'new non-swap intent' in the watche

vol spike ≥1% on ETH/BTC/sNVDA/sMSFT vs baseline (fires Engine 1 reassessment)

any new non-swap intent on book (proxy for buyer option demand)

120-min fallback (correct patient cadence for option-writing)

MISSING: settlement-specific trigger — a just-settled option may free Engine 1 premium capacity, but no post-settlement wake fires automatically unless vol or n

sole confirmed option buyer (4 deals); mission is to buy cheap/near-decided options — direct match

ok, 4 deals, last wake 2 min ago by cont

mission includes buying mispriced options; only 2 deals lifetime — limited track record as option buyer

none — Engine 1 is intentionally paused (buyer-demand exhausted proof); Engine 2 has no drift ≥5% to act on. The option settlement with Option-Taker-Matheus settled rather than creating a missed take opportunity. No swap intents visible that Engine 2 should have acted on given 69.7% vs 70% target is inside band.

vol ≥1% spike on key assets correctly signals Engine 1 reassessment opportunity

120-min fallback is well-matched to patient option-writing cadence

zero-LLM and cannot fire spuriously on a non-empty book — correct

non-swap intent proxy is a reasonable buyer-demand heuristic

non-swap trigger fires on BinaryBets and custom intents unrelated to option buying — wastes a wake on irrelevant activity

baseline prices frozen at first poll: slow accumulated drift (e.g. 0.8% over 2h) never fires even if meaningful for Engine 1 reassessment

no settlement-event trigger: a just-settled option could free premium capacity in Engine 1, but this isn't monitored

Narrow the non-swap intent filter to templateName.includes('Option') — false fires on BinaryBets/custom intents are the most wasteful issue; a single-line change eliminates spurious wakes without losing any real buyer signal.

Non-swap trigger too broad — fires on BinaryBets and custom intents

The watcher fires on `i.kind !== 'swap'` which includes BinaryBets, IndexBasket, and other custom intents. Each false fire costs a full LLM wake (~$0.15) to conclude HOLD.

Add `&& i.templateName?.includes('Option')` (or equivalent kind check) to the newIntents filter in current.ts

Engine 1 buyer-demand reset logic may be overly conservative post-settlement

7 consecutive unfilled writes (w26–37) set the buyer-demand-exhausted flag. Now that one option settled with Option-Taker-Matheus, there is renewed evidence of buyer appetite — but Engine 1 still waits for a new explicit buyer intent before resuming. The agent may be holding a valid option-writing o

Consider treating a confirmed settlement with Option-Taker-Matheus as partial buyer-demand evidence — reset the exhaustion counter or lower the resume threshold from 'new buyer intent on book' to 'settlement within last N wakes + vol signal'.

Baseline price staleness in vol trigger

baselinePrices is set once at first poll and never refreshed. After 120 min, a slow 0.8% move goes undetected while a sharp 1% reversal would overshoot and not refire (baseline stays at original value). This could delay Engine 1 wakeup after a slow trend.

Roll baseline forward each iteration (or use a 30-min rolling window) so vol detection remains sensitive to recent direction.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

sAAPL stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75) hit; new binary/option intent; fallback Jun11 20:00 UTC

Summary: Still holding 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / horizon Jun12 20:00 UTC). Silence extended from 832 min (prior summary) to 1017 min — nextFallbackMin 969→784 confirms exactly ~185 min elapsed, mechanically consistent. Agent is ALIVE (armed=true, pidAlive=true); the long dark is correct resting between triggers. Watcher will fire at J

Agent is alive and mechanically sound — 1017 min dark is resting, not crashed. The single actionable risk this cycle: LP-Maker's active sAAPL swap intents (the natural exit vehicle for 0.085722 sAAPL) will not fire the watcher because the new-intent filter excludes kind='swap'. The agent will miss favorable exit windows for ~784 min until the Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback.

2 settled deals total (realized_pnl +$0.75); 26 wakes finding no mispriced Options/BinaryBets on book — this is a thin-book / no-opportunity condition, not agent failure. sAAPL position is the sole live exposure; exit path runs through LP-Maker swaps which the watcher cannot see.

Sound for the hold phase — w19–w25 correctly identify edge erosion (1.5–3.1%) as expected convergence behavior and hold appropriately; w26's proactive approval of sAAPL before horizon is good forward planning. The reasoning is solving the right problem (don't exit early, protect the edge), but the watcher implementation creates a blind spot on the exit side that the agent's own reasoning hasn't ca

sAAPL oracle price <= $277.34 (stop, 60s poll)

sAAPL oracle price >= $303.75 (forward, 60s poll)

nowTs >= horizonTs (Jun12 20:00 UTC blockchain time)

New intent with kind='binary'|'option'|'unknown' appears on book

MISSING: new swap intent with kind='swap' accepting sAAPL — LP-Maker's active sAAPL swaps are invisible to this watcher

103 deals, active sAAPL intents on both sides per Step-1 — natural exit counterparty for 0.085722 sAAPL, but polymarket-ljuba's watcher cann

DCA swap agent, could cross sAAPL if in target portfolio mix

Fades dislocations via delivered swaps — could buy sAAPL if stretched below trailing average

Unmeasurable for swap exits: watcher is blind to swap intents (kind='swap') so LP-Maker's active sAAPL intents may represent missed exit windows across the 1017 min dark. No mispriced Options/BinaryBets missed — book has had none for 1017 min per w19–w25 confirms.

Zero-LLM, 60s poll — correct cadence for a price-triggered hold

Stop ($277.34) and forward ($303.75) monitored on every tick — no gaps on the primary exit conditions

Reads horizonTs from state.json with hardcoded fallback — robust to state corruption

Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback (24h before expiry) is correct 'assess exit candidates' trigger

FALLBACK_MS clamped to max(computed, 4h) prevents sub-4h accidental scheduling

New-intent filter is `kind === 'unknown' || kind === 'binary' || kind === 'option'` — excludes kind='swap', making LP-Maker's sAAPL swap intents invisible for ~

No check for whether horizonTs has already passed on init (edge case if watcher restarts near expiry)

Add `i.kind === 'swap'` to the new-intent filter, scoped to intents that accept sAAPL (check intent fields for sAAPL as the 'give' or 'want' asset). This is one line and closes the only meaningful blind spot: LP-Maker's active sAAPL swap in

Watcher blind to swap exit candidates

New-intent filter (`kind === 'unknown' || kind === 'binary' || kind === 'option'`) excludes swap intents. LP-Maker has active sAAPL swaps on both sides right now and polymarket-ljuba will not see them for ~784 min. Given the Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon, this 13h window matters.

In runWatchLoop, extend the new-intent filter to include `i.kind === 'swap'` where the intent involves sAAPL (either as giveToken or wantToken). Consider also adding a secondary check: if an intent could serve as a direct exit for the open sAAPL position, fire regardless of kind.

Edge erosion reported but not acted on

w22–w24 report edge eroded to 1.5–3.1% but the agent continues to hold. Given LP-Maker's active sAAPL swap intents (natural exit at near-oracle price), the agent should at least evaluate whether exiting now at 1.5% edge loss is preferable to holding through the Jun12 expiry with further erosion risk

At the Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback wake, explicitly compare current oracle price vs entry, compute remaining expected edge vs LP-Maker's current swap spread, and decide exit vs hold — do not auto-hold to expiry if a clean LP-Maker exit exists near oracle mid.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: Countdown continues on schedule: nextFallbackMin 489→431→424 (65 min total decay from prior summary at ~06:06 UTC), consistent 1:1 elapsed-time burn confirms watcher is mechanically healthy. Current time inferred ~07:11 UTC Jun 11. 13:30 UTC market-open trigger fires in ~379 min — well before the 424-min fallback — so it remains the first expected wake. No c

Decay rate 489→424 = 65 min over ~65 real minutes; 1:1 confirmed, watcher alive. 13:30 UTC equity-open trigger (in ~379 min) will fire before the 424-min fallback — planned sMSFT trim + BTC DCA (~7pp underweight, required +4% premium last fill) queued correctly.

Equity markets closed until 13:30 UTC Jun 11; BTC only remaining gap but no capital to deploy until sMSFT trim frees USDC (per w45: 'No capital to deploy until stocks open and sMSFT trim generates'). 0 open intents, 0 tokens spent in 5h window.

Sound and solving the right problem. Agent correctly identified BTC as the sole live gap (-7pp), escalated premium oracle→+1.47%→+2.07%→+3%→+4% across wakes 38–44, achieved fill at +4%, then entered disciplined sleep. Sleep-until-market-open is the correct posture; no churn detected.

Date.now() >= STOCK_OPEN_MS (2026-06-11T13:30:00Z), polled every 60s

Fallback: 14:00 UTC Jun 11 (dynamic FALLBACK_MS = max(14:00-now, 5min) computed at script load)

Primary swap counterparty — 4 of 7 recent settled deals; active, 103 deals, 12 open intents

1 settled swap deal; rotates into movers so may hold target assets

1 settled swap deal; swap-arb focus means occasional overlap

None — agent explicitly confirmed no capital to deploy and no book opportunities within budget constraints (w42). Dormancy is structurally correct, not a gap.

STOCK_OPEN_MS hardcoded to 13:30 UTC Jun 11 — fires exactly when action becomes possible

FALLBACK_MS computed dynamically (max(14:00 UTC - Date.now(), 5min)) so fallback tracks wall clock regardless of script-load time

60s poll cadence is appropriate for an event that lands at a known wall-clock time

Zero-LLM, zero book-watch — correct for a patient DCA agent whose blocker is market hours, not counterparty flow

Script comment hardcodes 'Wake 45' — stale after next wake fires; minor cosmetic issue

No guard if sMSFT approval tx fails mid-wake (agent concern, not watcher concern, but worth noting for the wake logic)

None structurally needed for this sleep phase. After 13:30 UTC fires, the new wake should recompute FALLBACK_MS against the *next* market session boundary rather than a same-day hardcode, to remain reusable across wake cycles.

BTC DCA required +4% premium escalation — LP spread may be structurally wide

4 consecutive failures at oracle price, then +1.47%, +2.07%, +3% before fill at +4%. LP-Maker charges 0.43–1.56% on crypto per w39 notes, but +4% fill suggests the book was thin or LP spread spiked. Next BTC DCA slice should start at +2% to avoid 3+ wasted intent cycles.

Update rebalancer-lior's CLAUDE.md BTC premium floor from oracle to +2% for crypto swaps, skipping the oracle→+1.47% rungs that have now failed 4+ times.

Decay rate 489→424 = 65 min over ~65 real minutes; 1:1 confirmed, watcher alive. 13:30 UTC equity-open trigger (in ~379 min) will fire before the 424-min fallback — planned sMSFT trim + BTC DCA (~7pp underweight, required +4% premium last fill) queued correctly.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Market hours rule: sNVDA swaps market hours only. 3:01 AM ET is outside window.

market open 13:30 UTC 2026-06-11 in 385 min

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 (Jun 10 13:30 UTC, ~26h past); MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 (Jun 10 20:00 UTC, ~20h past); 0 token spend in last 5h; settled_deals stuck at 2 since w22

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 reached (Jun 10 13:30 UTC) — fired in the past, process was dead before it could trigger

oracle drift >0.5% vs ORACLE_SNVDA_BASE=207.92

new sweepable sNVDA sell-side intent (price ≤ oracle×1.005, cost ≤ 12 USDC)

MISSING: dynamic Jun 11 market-open epoch (script only knows Jun 10)

Primary swap counterparty for USDC→sNVDA at oracle mid; 102 deals, health ok, actively filling during market hours

Could post sNVDA sell-side if rebalancing away from it; 15 deals, health ok

Rotates into/out of assets including sNVDA — could be sell-side if rotating out

Correct trigger logic: fires on market open, oracle drift >0.5%, or new sweepable sell-side — all mission-relevant

30-min fallback during market hours is appropriate cadence for a patient one-slice-per-wake strategy

Pre-market sleep-until-open pattern (msToOpen + 2 min buffer) is well-reasoned

Sweep filter (price ≤ oracle×1.005, cost ≤ 12 USDC) is tight and mission-aligned

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH are hardcoded Jun 10 calendar epochs — stale as of now

If restarted today: `nowSec() >= MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH` is immediately true → spurious fire before market opens

ORACLE_SNVDA_BASE=207.92 is a point-in-time snapshot from w27; 14h of price drift unaccounted

No self-healing: a stale epoch means every crash requires both a process restart AND a script rewrite

Process crashed 844 min ago, no restart

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null since Jun 10 12:05 UTC. Jun 10 US session missed entirely. Jun 11 session opens in ~7h.

Operator restart required immediately. Budget: 9.00 USDC free, 0.004928 sNVDA held — no capital issue, just a dead process.

current.ts hardcodes Jun 10 epochs — script must be regenerated on restart

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 are both ~20-26h in the past. A naive restart fires immediately (market-open guard always true), producing a spurious wake and incorrect market-hours logic for Jun 11.

On restart, agent must write a new current.ts with dynamic epoch computation for Jun 11 (or today's date generally). Do not restart with the existing current.ts.

Epoch hardcoding pattern makes every crash a double failure

All three crashed agents (bear-yosher, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew) likely share this pattern: the watcher encodes a specific calendar epoch, so a process death means the script is also stale on restart. This amplifies crash severity.

SDK should provide a `nextMarketOpenEpoch(tzOffset, openHHMM, closeHHMM)` helper returning the next future session epoch, making watcher scripts date-agnostic and restart-safe by construction.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Both actionable signals require selling assets I do not hold. No buy-dip above 1.5% threshold. Acquiring SSV/BTC at orac

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 11 or new sNVDA sell intent

Summary: No-trade streak w24–w32 remains structurally correct. sNVDA drift is NARROWING — w32 (06:32 UTC) reports -0.99%, up from -1.12% at last summary; gap to ≥-1.5% buy threshold has widened from 0.38 pp to 0.51 pp, reducing probability of a trigger at 13:30 UTC market open. SSV sell signal (+5.60%) remains permanently moot at zero inventory. Watcher armed with du

Swing-Nikita is behaving exactly as it should: sNVDA at -0.99% is narrowing away from the -1.5% buy threshold (not toward it), SSV/BTC sell signals are structurally unactionable with zero inventory, and stocks are market-hours locked until 13:30 UTC — all five wake-script branches correctly resolve to 'no trade.' The risk at market open is that sNVDA has recovered enough to offer no buy signal at all.

SSV zero inventory makes +5.60% sell signal permanently unactionable; sNVDA -0.99% (w32, 06:32 UTC) vs -1.12% (prior summary) — narrowing, not widening; sNVDA needs ≥-1.5% to trigger; all stock assets gated by market hours through ~13:30 UTC; 0 open intents posted; 2/5 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Mathe

Sound and self-consistent. The w32 note 'Both actionable signals require selling assets I do not hold' correctly identifies that SSV (+5.60%) and BTC (+1.59%) are above trailing average — sell signals — but agent holds zero of both. The agent is not confusing buy/sell direction. No churn: each wake makes a distinct, data-driven no-trade call rather than re-posting identical blocked logic. Solving

Time gate: Date.now() >= 1781184600000 (13:30 UTC Jun 11) fires wake for full stock reassessment

Early: newMatches scan for any intent where posterGives=sNVDA (LP-Maker or others posting sNVDA→USDC sell)

Fallback: 15:30 UTC Jun 11 (2h post market open) — ensures wake even if early trigger never fires

MISSING: no trigger for SSV dip below trailing avg (buy signal) — currently irrelevant since SSV is above avg, but if SSV reverses, agent would miss an early bu

Both settled deals were ↔ LP-Maker; has 12 open intents live including potential sNVDA legs; the newMatches trigger would catch any new sNVD

Also does delivered swaps targeting stock assets; also locked until 13:30 UTC market open — could cross-trade on stock dislocations post ope

Delivered swaps on same asset class; different direction logic (momentum vs fade) could create natural counterparty flow post market open

Pre-crash bait intents expire ~57–59 min out with no agent alive to repost; crash renders it unavailable

crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 97

none — sNVDA at -0.99% is below the ≥-1.5% buy threshold; SSV/BTC above trailing avg with zero inventory held; no actionable open intents on book matching swing-Nikita's criteria during w25–w32 window. The watcher's sNVDA sell-intent scan ran each 120s loop and found no matches.

Dual-trigger design: primary time gate (13:30 UTC) + early reactive scan for sNVDA sell intents via newMatches — avoids both premature polling and missing an ea

isNVDASeller filter (posterGives=sNVDA, kind=swap) is precise — correctly targets intents where agent can acceptSwap to buy the dip

120s poll cadence is appropriate for a patient fade-dislocation strategy — not sub-minute churn

Zero-LLM watcher with clear fallback at 15:30 UTC; fallbackMs = max(fallback - now, 30min) prevents negative sleep

sNVDA narrowing scenario unhandled: if sNVDA recovers to -0.5% or above by 13:30 UTC, the wake fires but produces a no-trade — no logic to re-arm for a *future*

No trigger for SSV crossing below trailing avg (from current +5.60%) — if SSV reverses, agent misses the buy entry until scheduled fallback wake

Add a post-marketopen re-arm branch: if sNVDA is above -1.5% at the 13:30 UTC wake, re-arm with a shorter fallback (e.g., 60 min) to re-check through the trading session, rather than sleeping 2h to the 15:30 UTC fallback. This covers the na

sNVDA narrowing may render market-open trigger a no-op

sNVDA moved from -1.12% (prior summary) to -0.99% (w32, 06:32 UTC) — 0.13 pp recovery in ~6h. At this rate, sNVDA could be near -0.5% or higher by 13:30 UTC, well above the ≥-1.5% buy threshold. The wake fires but trades nothing, and the 15:30 UTC fallback is 2h later.

In the market-open wake handler, if sNVDA < threshold, re-arm immediately with a 60-min fallback to stay responsive through the trading session rather than sleeping 2h.

SSV buy-dip trigger absent from watcher

SSV is currently +5.60% (sell signal, zero inventory moot), but if SSV reverses to below trailing avg, it would become a buy opportunity. The current watcher has no trigger for this event.

Low priority given current SSV direction — no action needed this cycle. Flag for next mission review if SSV trends downward.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

ETH fell $4.75 since wake 68; my ETH sell 1403 (originally 1.00%) drifted to 1.29% vs rival at 1.01% — re-quoted to 1.00

13 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781163012; next poll 92s

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null at 915 min — process dead since ~06-10T14:36 (w67, last wake). Not a logic/mispricing failure; agent was actively managing quotes (4 cancels + 4 fresh posts at w66, deals 98/99 filled at w63 +$0.28 edge) immediately before crash. No new deals or toke

scan-edges poll every 30s: fires on any new takeable intent ≥1% edge not in seenEdgeIds

pre-expiry: fires ~5 min before soonest own-intent expiry

check-my-quotes: fires when any live quote erodes below cancel floor or is undercut

MISSING: none of these fire — process is dead (armed=false/pidAlive=false)

8 of 8 recent settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker swaps; 10 active intents covering sNVDA, sMSFT, sAAPL, BTC, ETH, SSV — exact match for vulture's

Posts delivered swaps vulture could scan; armed and counting down to US open — likely to post fresh equity swaps post-13:30 UTC.

Posts delivered swaps on dislocation fades; 5 deals, health ok — occasional scan-edge target.

Posts binaries vulture could take if near-decided; deal #75 expiry status unclear.

Zero-LLM: scan-edges and check-my-quotes are pure tool calls, no token burn in the watcher loop

Fires on the right signal: ≥1% takeable edge is exactly vulture's action threshold

Quote hygiene integrated: check-my-quotes cancel trigger prevents free pick-off between wakes

Honeypot pre-seeding hardcoded (779/836/869) — watcher never fires on confirmed honeypots

Pre-expiry trigger prevents own-intent expiry waste

2h fallback present; 30s poll cadence appropriate for a liquidity-opportunist

seenEdgeIds is in-memory only — newly refused intents from last session are lost on restart (minor: agent re-evaluates and re-refuses, but wastes one LLM wake p

No process-level crash detection or self-restart; once dead, nothing revives it

Process dead 915 min — operator restart required

armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null since ~06-10T14:36. All 7 bait intents expired. LP-Maker's 10-intent equity book + US market open today is the highest-value opportunity window since the last crash — vulture cannot act.

Operator: restart the vulture-andrew process. On restart, watcher self-arms immediately (2h fallback) and scan-edges will catch any ≥1% LP-Maker equity drift from US open.

seenEdgeIds resets on crash-restart

In-memory Set means newly refused intents (beyond pre-seeded 779/836/869) are forgotten across crashes. Low severity since agent re-evaluates and re-refuses, but costs one LLM wake per rediscovery.

Persist refused IDs to /agent/state/refused-edges.json; read on startup, append on new refusal.

No auto-restart for crashed agents

Three agents (vulture-andrew 915m, bear-yosher 1112m, stacker-massimo 962m) have been hard-crashed for 15+ hours with no platform-level recovery. Each crash requires manual operator intervention.

Add a fleet-level process supervisor (e.g. PM2, systemd unit, or a watchdog cron) that detects armed=false/pidAlive=false and restarts the agent process automatically after a configurable grace period.

LP ACTIVE; CRASHES DRAINING TAKERS

~115 est. (LP-Maker-Matheus in 103; overlaps Vulture-Andrew's 38, Arb-Hunter's 11)

~15 est. (Options + BinaryBet-custom deals)

~8 est. (Bear-Yosher 17 lifetime; 2 still 'live'/unsettled vs Mimic-Ljuba)

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom (5 recent) + Vulture-Andrew (pre-crash, 5 expiring intents 37–59m) + Rebalancer-Lior (gated 379m) + Momentum-Nikita (1 open)

Active but taker-thinning — Vulture-Andrew (38 lifetime deals, 973m dark) remove

Bear-Yosher → Mimic-Ljuba (historical); Vulture-Andrew → Mimic-Ljuba (pre-crash)

FROZEN — Bear-Yosher 1172m dark (armed=false/pidAlive=false), Vulture-Andrew 973

Option-Writer-Matheus → Option-Taker-Matheus (sole buyer, 4 total deals)

SUPPLY PAUSED — Engine 1 last wrote w37 (41 consecutive monitor-only wakes); Tak

Swing-Nikita + Rebalancer-Lior + Polymarket-Ljuba (all dormant) + Stacker-Massimo (crashed)

Gated — three agents correctly waiting for 13:30 UTC open (~379m); Stacker-Massi

NEVER DEPLOYED — 0 IndexBasket intents in entire 1407-intent history; both agent

Bear-Yosher hard crash (1172m, armed=false/pidAlive=false) removed primary binary bet supply

BinaryBet market frozen; Mimic-Ljuba idle $63.6k+ for 14 consecutive wakes with 0 counterparties

Bear-Yosher was Mimic-Ljuba's sole bet poster; 0 BinaryBets on book w60–w73; deal-75 (betExpiry epoch 1781139624) expired unresolved — Mimic as losing party has no incentive to call settlement; Mimic

Vulture-Andrew hard crash (973m, pidAlive=false) removed fleet's 2nd-largest swap taker

LP-Maker's full 12-quote book now depends almost entirely on Arb-Hunter-Tom; 5 pre-crash bait intents (BTC/sMSFT/sAAPL/s

Vulture had 38 lifetime deals vs LP-Maker; 2 recent LP-Maker ↔ Vulture-Andrew [Swap] settled in visible window; open book shows 5 Vulture intents with 37–59m TTL; Vulture-Andrew watcher armed=true/nex

Bear-Yosher + Vulture-Andrew both crashed, eliminating both binary-bet supply and bait-intent arb targets; oracle-CEX ga

Arb-Hunter-Tom frozen at 11 deals for 46+ consecutive waits (w197–w204)

Arb-Hunter summary: 'oracle caught up' w203; no binary bets on book w197–w204; only LP-Maker swap arb remains but no ≥10bps mispricing evident in 46 waits; reliableCounterparties=1

Option-Writer Engine 1 paused at w37 after 7 consecutive unfilled writes; nextFallbackMin=1144 (~19h)

Option-Taker holding 2 sNVDA options that both expire today with no new supply pipeline or hedge path

Taker: call #118 strike $203.69 exp 17:37 UTC, put #119 strike $201.75 exp 18:31 UTC; all 4 taker deals trace to option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff); taker watcher fires every 60s but book empty 201+

Stacker-Massimo crashed 1022m with hardcoded Jun 10 epochs (MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200, ~26h stale)

Equity stacking strategy absent at today's 13:30 UTC US market open; script misfires on stale guards even if process aut

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 = Jun 10 13:30 UTC; MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 = Jun 10 20:00 UTC; settled_deals stuck at 2 since w22; Stacker watcher JSON shows armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackM

3 concurrent hard crashes (973–1172m) with zero auto-recovery — platform supervision gap

Bear-Yosher (1172m), Stacker-Massimo (1022m), Vulture-Andrew (973m) all have pidAlive=false and zero restart signal across consecutive cycles. Fleet running at ~50% active-agent capacity. No watchdog is catching or alerting on failures.

Bear-Yosher last token spend w41 Jun 10 11:17 UTC; Stacker-Massimo last wake w27 Jun 10 12:05 UTC; Vulture-Andrew last wake w67 Jun 10 ~14:36 UTC (deals 98/99 settled at w63 +$0.28 edge, then silent); no operator restart events in any obser

Add process supervisor (systemd/pm2 equivalent) with auto-restart and alert-on-dark (>60m threshold) for all agent watcher processes

Vulture-Andrew's 5 bait intents expire in <40m — watcher fires in ~28m, manual restart faster

5 cross-asset bait intents (BTC, sMSFT, sAAPL, USDC→sNVDA, ETH→USDC) posted pre-crash expire 37–59m from now. Watcher armed=true/nextFallbackMin=28 suggests a scheduled fire in ~28m, but pidAlive=false means no running process will repost. LP-Maker loses 5 pricing anchors at expiry.

Open book: 'Vulture-Andrew [Swap] gives 0.000075 BTC → wants 4.762 USDC (39m left)', sMSFT (38m), sAAPL (38m), sNVDA (37m), ETH (59m); Vulture-Andrew pidAlive=false confirmed in Step-2 summary

Restart Vulture-Andrew immediately — highest urgency of the 3 crashes; do not wait for the 28m watcher fire which may only monitor, not restart

sNVDA options #118 + #119 expire today (17:37 + 18:31 UTC); no new supply for ~19h

Option-Taker holds both positions with P&L crystallizing today. Writer's Engine 1 has not written since w37 (41 wakes ago); nextFallbackMin=1144 confirms silence through tomorrow. If either option is deeply out-of-the-money at expiry, premium is fully lost with no hedge path.

Taker: 'call #118 strike $203.69 prem $0.25 expiry ~17:37 UTC' and 'put #119 strike $201.75 prem $0.23 expiry ~18:31 UTC'; Option-Writer nextFallbackMin=1144; LP-Maker has live sNVDA swap quotes (12 USDC → 0.060122 sNVDA, 47m left) as an ex

Assess Option-Taker's sNVDA position vs current spot before 17:37 UTC; if deeply offside, manual exit via LP-Maker sNVDA swap (live on book, 47m TTL) avoids full premium loss

BinaryBet market frozen 14 wakes — Mimic-Ljuba $63.6k+ idle with 0 counterparties

Both primary binary bet posters crashed (Bear-Yosher 1172m, Vulture-Andrew 973m). Board has had 0 BinaryBets for w60–w73. Mimic-Ljuba correctly holds cash but is structurally blocked until at least one poster restarts.

Mimic-Ljuba: openExposureUsd=0, reliableCounterparties=0, badge='CORRECTLY WAITING'; Bear-Yosher deal-75 betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed with no settlement — manual on-chain call likely needed before Bear-Yosher restart

Restart Bear-Yosher after verifying deal-75 settlement on-chain (Mimic as losing party has no incentive to initiate); manual settlement call may be prerequisite

Arb-Hunter-Tom frozen at 11 deals for 46+ waits — downstream of crash pair

Both edge sources eliminated: Bear-Yosher binary bets (crashed) and oracle-CEX gap (dissolved w203). Only LP-Maker swap arb remains but no ≥10bps mispricing in 46 consecutive waits. This is counterparty-starvation from the crash pair, not Arb-Hunter's logic failing.

Counter stuck 11/11 through w197–w204; 'oracle caught up' w203; all 9 visible settled deals are LP-Maker (8) + Rebalancer-Lior (1); reliableCounterparties=1

Arb-Hunter unblocks automatically when Vulture-Andrew restarts (restores bait intents) or Bear-Yosher restarts (restores binary bets) — fix is upstream in the crash restarts, not in Arb-Hunter itself

Stacker-Massimo has stale Jun 10 epoch constants — unsafe to restart without script update

MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 (Jun 10 13:30 UTC, ~26h past) and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000 (Jun 10 20:00 UTC, ~20h past) are hardcoded. On restart the guards fire immediately against wrong dates. Stacker will be absent for today's 13:30 UTC equity open (~379m away).

Stacker-Massimo Step-2 summary: 'wake script (current.ts) hardcodes Jun 10 epochs'; settled_deals stuck at 2 since w22; Note: Stacker's watcher JSON (armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=411) is bit-for-bit identical to Rebalancer-Lior

Update MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH in current.ts to Jun 11 13:30 UTC and Jun 11 20:00 UTC equivalents, then restart — do not restart with current script

Restart Vulture-Andrew now — 5 bait intents expire in <40m (BTC/sMSFT/sAAPL/sNVDA/ETH); pidAlive=false but watcher armed=true fires in ~28m (may only monitor, not restart). Manual restart is fastest recovery; agent was actively profitable pre-crash (deals 98/99, +$0.28 edge at w6

Update Stacker-Massimo's MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH to Jun 11 13:30 UTC and Jun 11 20:00 UTC before restart — current hardcoded values are Jun 10 and will misfire; restart must complete before 13:30 UTC open (~379m away)

Restart Bear-Yosher after confirming deal-75 on-chain settlement status — betExpiry epoch 1781139624 passed with no settlement call; Mimic-Ljuba (losing party) has no incentive to initiate; manual settlement call may be required first; restart unblocks BinaryBet market and Mimic-

Assess Option-Taker-Matheus sNVDA exposure before 17:37 UTC — call #118 and put #119 both expire today; LP-Maker has live sNVDA swap quotes on book now (47m TTL) as an exit path if position is offside

Implement process supervisor with auto-restart and alert-on-dark (>60m) for all agent watchers — 3 concurrent crashes at 973–1172m with zero automated recovery is a platform supervision gap affecting ~50% of fleet deal-making capacity

Same vs last run — 3 hard crashes (Bear-Yosher 1172 min, Stacker-Massimo 1022 min, Vulture-Andrew 973 min) unchanged with zero restart signals; LP-Maker accelerated from 96→103 deals (+7) driven primarily by Arb-Hunter-Tom and Vulture-Andrew pre-crash bait intents; new time pressure: sNVDA options #

3 hard crashes at 973–1172 min dark (Bear-Yosher, Stacker-Massimo, Vulture-Andrew) — armed=false/pidAlive=false all three, no operator restart in any window

LP-Maker +7 deals (96→103) with 12 open intents live; dominant hub trading with Arb-Hunter-Tom (5 of ~7 recent deals) and Vulture-Andrew pre-crash bait

Arb-Hunter-Tom frozen at 11 deals for 46+ consecutive waits — no binary bets on book, swap arb only path, needs a mispriced LP-Maker or Vulture intent

sNVDA options #118 call (~17:37 UTC) and #119 put (~18:31 UTC) expire today — Option-Taker's P&L crystallizes in <11h; prior summary notes one option may have already settled

Rebalancer-Lior + Swing-Nikita both locked until 13:30 UTC US equity market open (~6.5h from now); both have armed watchers correctly counting down

Vulture-Andrew's 4 pre-crash bait intents (BTC, sMSFT, sAAPL, USDC→sNVDA) expire in ~57–59 min with no agent alive to repost

Counter frozen at 11 deals through 46+ consecutive 'No fill' waits — does the current open book (LP-Maker's 12 intents, Vulture's 4 expiring baits) contain any mispriced swap arb within arb-hunter's edge threshold, and is the watcher correc

Hard crashed 1172 min (armed=false/pidAlive=false); Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet shows as 'live' in recent deals and deal #75 (expiry epoch 1781139624 ≈ Jun 11 00:58 UTC, now 6h past) remains unresolved — has deal #75 settled or expi

23rd consecutive null cycle — zero delta expected; confirm no operator provisioning event (wallet, wake script, or initialization signal) has occurred since last run, and assess whether this agent is structurally blocked or simply undeploye

Sole counterparty (index-maker) remains uninitialized and has never posted an IndexBasket intent — confirm still in null/undeployed state with no new IndexBasket intents from any party in the 1400-intent funnel.

Deals grew 96→103 (+7) since last summary with 12 open intents active now — which counterparties drove the 7 new deals, does the current 12-intent book fully cover both sides of BTC/ETH/sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL/SSV, and is the SSV quote (3 SSV → 6

Armed/alive (nextFallbackMin=17); Bear-Yosher deal #75 (epoch 1781139624 ≈ Jun 11 00:58 UTC) is 6h past expiry and still showing 'live' — has this deal settled or is it genuinely stuck, and is Mimic's current scan finding any new binary bet

Open intent #1318 (25 USDC → 11.79 SSV at ~$2.12, 198 min left) rests against LP-Maker's sell-side quote (3 SSV → 6.69 USDC at ~$2.23) — is the $0.11/SSV bid-ask gap the reason this intent hasn't filled, and has SSV momentum held or faded s

Holds sNVDA call #118 (strike $203.69, expiry ~17:37 UTC Jun 11) and put #119 (strike $201.75, expiry ~18:31 UTC Jun 11) — option-writer's prior summary noted a 'custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus' event; which option settled, what is th

Engine 1 in ~39 consecutive monitor-only wakes (w38→w77+) with a 'custom settled ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus' deal in recent settlements — which sNVDA option settled, has Engine 1 now crossed any rebalance threshold freed by the settlement, and

Armed/alive at 1010 min since last wake (nextFallbackMin=791, mechanically consistent); holding 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 with stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / horizon Jun 12 20:00 UTC — LP-Maker has active sAAPL intents on both sides (0.05

nextFallbackMin was 489 at prior summary (~06:06 UTC); now at 431 — is the ~58-min decay consistent with 1:1 elapsed-time burn, confirming mechanical health, and is the 13:30 UTC market-open trigger still the first expected wake?

Hard crashed 1022 min (armed=false/pidAlive=false); wake script hardcodes stale Jun 10 epochs (MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200, MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000) — has any operator restart attempt occurred, and what specific epoch values would a

Armed/waiting (nextFallbackMin=521) for 13:30 UTC US equity market open; sNVDA was ~-1.12% below trailing average at last check (needs ≥-1.5% to trigger a buy) — is sNVDA drift widening toward the threshold or narrowing, and does LP-Maker's

Hard crashed 973 min (armed=false/pidAlive=false); 4 pre-crash bait intents (BTC, sMSFT, sAAPL, USDC→sNVDA) expire in ~57–59 min — will these expire unfilled again, and which of LP-Maker's current 12 intents represent clear mispricing edges

Restart Bear-Yosher (1172 min dark), Stacker-Massimo (1022 min dark), Vulture-Andrew (973 min dark) — all three are hard crashed (armed=false/pidAlive=false) with zero operator restart signals across

Stacker-Massimo wake script must be updated with Jun 11 epoch values before restart — current script hardcodes Jun 10 MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH=1781098200 and MARKET_CLOSE_EPOCH=1781118000, both now stale; pr

Bear-Yosher deal #75 (BinaryBet expiry epoch 1781139624 ≈ Jun 11 00:58 UTC, now 6h past) needs on-chain settlement investigation — crash blocks the agent from resolving it; assess whether counterparty

Vulture-Andrew's 4 bait intents (BTC, sMSFT, sAAPL, USDC→sNVDA) expire in ~57–59 min with no agent alive to replace them — if restart is not imminent, the vulture loses its entire active book for the

Monitor sNVDA option settlements at 17:37 UTC (#118 call) and 18:31 UTC (#119 put) today — Option-Taker-Matheus P&L crystallizes; if in-the-money, verify Option-Writer-Matheus auto-settles and posts f