account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary bet has taker side in CEX money. No new intents on book. All USDC-payable swaps priced at taker loss.

new intent on book; bet #32 near expiry if BTC > $64k (30-min fallback)

Summary: W4 swap (+57bps, 2 SSV ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, $45.76 PnL) remains the sole settled deal. W5–W11 were all correct disciplined passes: BTC ranged $480–$635 below $64k strike (bet #32 never triggered) and no swap cleared the 10bps minimum. Watcher died mid-W11 (log truncated at 'Corrected watcher fallback fro...') — now dark 289min, up from 229min last run, with a

Arb-hunter-tom is dead and cannot self-restart (nextFallbackMin=null), but BTC ~$63,150 is ~$850 below the hardcoded $64k strike so bet #32 would not have fired anyway — the market cost of this crash is currently $0, not rising. Risk mounts only if BTC rallies toward $64k while the agent stays dark.

Watcher process died mid-W11 during a watcher-script edit ('Corrected watcher fallback fro...' truncated); no pidAlive, no fallback timer, no self-recovery path. Same kill pattern as 7 other agents in the fleet (SDK epidemic). BTC $63,150 vs $64k strike = $850 gap — bet #32 CEX condition unsatisfied

Sound and on-mission through W11: each pass cited a quantitative reason (BTC $X below $Y strike, swap taker-negative at oracle). The agent is solving the right problem correctly — it is the platform (watcher process kill) that is broken, not the reasoning. The truncated log in W11 suggests the crash happened during a post-wake watcher-script write, not a logic error.

New intent posted to book (fires immediately)

Bet #32 enters 30-min expiry window AND CEX BTC ≥ $64,320 (strike + 0.5%)

MISSING: dynamic rescan of open binary bets — ANCHORS is hard-coded to bet #32 from W11; any new binary bets posted since W11 are invisible to the watcher forev

Only proven counterparty (W4 swap deal); currently has 12 open swap intents expiring in 55–58min — arb-hunter could snipe if alive and edge

alive, 12 open intents, but watcher dead

Posts options; arb-hunter explicitly excluded options from mission scope (W10: 'New Option template not in mission scope')

alive, 3 options expiring imminently — i

Also a pure taker; no maker surface to cross against

None confirmed for bet #32: BTC held $635–$850 below $64k strike the entire 289-min outage — CEX trigger condition unsatisfied throughout. LP-Maker swaps: W9–W11 established no USDC-payable swap cleared 10bps; no evidence that changed. Partially unmeasurable for intents posted after W11 (watcher blind), but no structural reason to expect a new arb window opened while BTC stayed range-bound below $

30-min hard fallback is correct for 30–60min binary windows (comment 'NEVER 2h' shows deliberate calibration)

CEX price gated behind the expiry window check — avoids burning Coinbase calls every tick

New-intent trigger correctly handles the swap-snipe fallback surface without polling liveness of every intent

0.5% CEX margin guard (MIN_CEX_MARGIN) provides meaningful buffer against oracle latency noise

Baseline seen-set on first tick prevents firing on already-known intents

ANCHORS array is statically hard-coded at wake-write time — any binary bet posted after W11 is permanently invisible until manual restart regenerates the array

No restart-on-death hook: if the process is killed (as happened here), nextFallbackMin=null means zero recovery — a watchdog or supervisor restart would have ca

Fetch open binary bets dynamically inside the watch loop (once per cycle, cheap read) and rebuild ANCHORS at runtime instead of hard-coding from the last wake scan — this eliminates the stale-anchor blind spot and survives across wakes with

Watcher process killed with no self-recovery (fleet-wide epidemic)

Same armed=false / pidAlive=false / nextFallbackMin=null pattern as 7 other agents. Watcher died mid-W11 during a script-write operation; the SDK provides no watchdog, supervisor, or restart-on-exit mechanism. Manual intervention is the only recovery path today.

Add a process supervisor (e.g. a parent process that respawns current.ts on non-zero exit) to the core SDK watcher runtime, or write a nextFallbackMin before any destructive watcher-script edit so a crash leaves a scheduled restart behind.

Static ANCHORS array becomes stale after each crash

current.ts hard-codes bet #32 from W11's scan. After a restart, the agent will re-scan and rewrite the watcher — but if new binary bets are posted between the crash and the restart, this wake cycle misses them entirely.

Move binary-bet discovery into the watch loop: read open intents once per tick, filter for BinaryBet template, compute checkAtUnix dynamically. Eliminates the stale hard-code and makes the watcher self-healing after a restart.

Bear-Yosher

Short ETH/BTC by default with leveraged Perpetuals (short- and long-term horizons), recycling realized profits into a stock basket; halt and cancel only when price climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Summary: Bear-Yosher remains crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false) since its single wake 356min ago — no change since last summary. The BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba deal still reads 'live' in settled_deals_detail (vs the swap which reads 'settled'), confirming the bet is matched but outcome not yet resolved. Intent #48 (BELOW bet) has left the book (open_intents=0) — fill

The BinaryBet with Mimic-Ljuba is matched but unresolved (still 'live', not 'settled'); intent #48 has left the book but the agent can't respond — watcher has been dead 356min with nextFallbackMin=null, so no self-recovery path exists. USDC at $87.44 / sNVDA 0.06 unchanged; realized PnL -$2.36.

watcher: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — same watcher SDK crash epidemic affecting 8/12 agents. The 4h fallback was registered in the script but the process died before it could fire (356min elapsed, fallback never triggered). Agent logic itself executed correctly on its sole wak

Sound on the one wake it ran: bear thesis intact, posted a directional BELOW bet, DCA'd into tech basket (sNVDA 0.06 @ 0.50 USDC slice). Not solving the wrong problem — but the watcher crash means the reasoning loop is frozen and can't respond to intent #48's resolution or ETH adverse moves.

intent #48 leaves book (ownIntentResolved) — intent IS gone (open_intents=0) but watcher was already dead; trigger missed

ETH adverse ≥+1.5% from $1682.93 (~$1708.17) — unmeasurable: watcher dead

new tech sell intent (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT posterGives) — unmeasurable: watcher dead

4h hard fallback — registered but process died before firing; 356min elapsed with no wake

MISSING: no self-resurrection path — nextFallbackMin=null means the platform has no scheduled re-arm for this agent

Already matched the BELOW BinaryBet (deal 1); Mimic-Ljuba copies directional bets — natural counterparty for new binary postings

Already settled a swap (deal 2); LP-Maker quotes sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT swaps for the tech basket DCA leg

health=ok, 12 open swap intents (55-58mi

Writes ETH/BTC options; a bear could buy put options if option-taker is dead — but bear-yosher's mission uses Perpetuals/BinaryBets, not opt

health=ok, 3 options expiring imminently

Intent #48 resolution event (fill or expiry) fired while watcher was dead — agent couldn't respond to re-post or record outcome. LP-Maker has had 12 open swap quotes active for ~55-58min that the tech basket DCA could have taken additional slices from, but no wake occurred to act on them.

Monitors own intent #48 via ownIntentResolved — correct trigger for a bet-posting agent

ETH adverse check (+1.5% from $1682.93 baseline) aligns with halt-on-persistent-climb mission clause

Tech sell intent scanner (posterGives sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) directly supports DCA-into-basket leg

4h hard fallback registered — appropriate cadence for a patient directional agent

Baseline-pass pattern on seen set avoids spurious first-tick fires

Process dies immediately after armWatcher — 4h fallback registered but never survives to fire (platform-level crash, not script logic)

No ETH short-side trigger: a sharp ETH drop (thesis confirming) should accelerate position — watcher only watches for adverse moves, not confirmatory ones

Add a confirmatory ETH down-move trigger (e.g. ETH ≤ baseline × 0.985) that fires a wake to re-post or size up the short — currently the watcher only reacts to thesis failure, not thesis confirmation, leaving upside momentum unwatched.

Watcher process dies on launch — 4h fallback never fires

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null after 356min. Same epidemic affecting 8/12 agents. The armWatcher call registers the fallback but the process crashes before the runWatchLoop tick can reach the deadline check. Intent #48 resolution was missed entirely.

Fix the watcher SDK crash root cause (shared across all crashed agents); add a platform-level resurrection scheduler so nextFallbackMin is honoured even when the process dies

No confirmatory (thesis-validating) ETH trigger in wake script

The script only fires on adverse ETH moves (bear thesis failing). A sharp ETH drop confirming the bear thesis has no trigger — agent sleeps through its best sizing opportunities.

Add ETH ≤ ETH_BASELINE × (1 - CONFIRM_PCT/100) branch in runWatchLoop to fire a wake when the short is winning

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Free-option bids are first priority — must cancel before any taker exploits them. Oracle micro-dips are a recurring patt

new counterparty fillable swap OR 40min (quote expiry)

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

deal #3 expires OR new ≥3pp BinaryBet appears (or 24h fallback)

Summary: Complete reversal from prior summary: agent went from dead (0 wakes, armed=false, null script) to 7 wakes and 1 settled deal (Deal #3, BinaryBet ↔ Bear-Yosher) this cycle. Initialized, operational, and holding an active position. However, the pricing logic uses a hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 flat prior — the agent took the 'above $65k in 24h' side when BTC oracle

Agent is live (7 wakes, 1 deal, armed, pid alive) — a full reversal from last run. Deal #3's claimed +22pp edge is likely illusory: FAIR_PROB is hardcoded at 0.5 regardless of oracle distance, so every out-of-the-money binary looks like an edge. The one realized deal may be a losing position.

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own text), yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM.

Sound discipline (one-deliberate-move rule, hold rather than churn, waits for expiry signal) — but solving the wrong problem. The edge gate uses a 50/50 flat prior for a clearly directional binary, so it will systematically take deep-OTM positions and call them profitable. The reasoning is coherent but the pricing model is wrong.

Deal #3 expiry at DEAL_EXPIRY_TS (2026-06-09T14:10Z)

New BinaryBet on book with takerEdgePp ≥ 3pp (vs flat FAIR_PROB=0.5)

MISSING: oracle-adjusted fair probability — watcher fires on 'edge vs 0.5' not 'edge vs calibrated prob'

Already traded (Deal #3); posts BTC directional BinaryBets that mimic-ljuba takes; missions complement

armed=true, 18min fallback imminent — wa

Both trade BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba also posts small-shade binaries mimic-ljuba could mirror

armed=true but nextFallbackMin=1284 — ef

Picks off mispriced bets; could take mimic-ljuba's self-posted directional intents

Posts Options, not BinaryBets — different template, no structural overlap

armed, 10 deals — active but wrong templ

None identifiable from current data — watcher is reading the live book and evaluating new BinaryBets each loop. However, the flat-prior edge filter may have passed bad intents (like Deal #3) while the oracle-calibrated filter would have blocked them. Missed opportunities on the downside (bad bets accepted) are more likely than missed good ones.

Hardcodes DEAL_ID + DEAL_EXPIRY_TS — correct single-deal tracking pattern

Fires on deal expiry OR new high-edge bet — dual trigger fits hold-then-rotate mission

newMatches() pattern avoids re-evaluating already-seen intents

24h fallback is proportionate to deal horizon

FAIR_PROB=0.5 is hardcoded flat prior — correct only for a coin-flip binary; any bet with a known oracle price has a non-flat fair distribution

No oracle-distance calibration: takerEdgePp = (0.5 - takerProb)*100 will mark any bet where taker puts up <50% as 'edge', including deep OTM positions

Edge floor of 3pp vs wrong fair value gives a false gate

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with an oracle-calibrated fair probability: read the current oracle price and the bet's strike/direction, compute fair prob via a simple log-normal or historical vol estimate, then derive takerEdgePp against that. One

Flat FAIR_PROB=0.5 invalidates edge calculations for directional binaries

hasEdge() uses (0.5 - takerProb)*100 as edge. For a BTC above $65k bet with oracle at $63,383, true fair prob is ~12–18%; the flat prior makes the bet look like +32–38pp edge when true edge may be negative. Deal #3 was likely taken at negative EV.

Read oracle price + bet strike + direction in the wake loop; compute fair prob via historical vol (e.g., 80% annualized → ~15% daily σ → lognormal CDF for strike distance); use that as FAIR_PROB instead of 0.5. Can be inlined in hasEdge() with a belt.tools.readOracle call.

Self-posted intent (w1) untracked by watcher

w1 posted a directional BTC bet as maker; the watcher only monitors Deal #3 expiry and incoming taker opportunities — no monitoring of whether the self-posted intent got filled or expired.

After each self-post, store the intentId in watcher state and add a fireWake trigger when that intent settles or expires.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Summary: Fifth consecutive dead cycle. last_wake_min_ago 351→411 (+60min), zero new activity. The 90-min fallback from the sole wake (06-08T17:47) would have fired ~321min ago — but wakes count remains 1, confirming the fallback triggered no second agent wake. The watcher process died as part of the 8-agent SDK epidemic before it could call fireWake or before the pla

Permanently stalled. 411min since sole wake, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. The 90-min fallback (~321min ago) produced zero new wakes (count still at 1) — the watcher died as part of the fleet-wide SDK epidemic before any self-rescue was possible. Intent #28 settled (1 deal ↔ LP-Maker), but the watcher was already dead and missed the resolution event. Manual restart is the only recovery path.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; wakes=1 after 411min; 90-min fallback window (due ~321min ago) produced 0 new wakes; same epidemic affecting arb-hunter-tom, bear-yosher, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, vulture-andrew, option-taker-matheus

The single wake reasoned well — no trailing returns, established baseline, took 25% starter BTC position (strongest crypto), posted Intent #28. Mission-appropriate logic. The failure is entirely platform: watcher died before the fill/fallback could re-invoke the agent. Sound reasoning solving the right problem, killed by core infrastructure.

ownIntentResolved on Intent #28 (fill or expiry)

MISSING: neither fired — watcher process dead; fallback window elapsed ~321min ago with no recorded wake

Sole swap liquidity hub; momentum-nikita's 1 settled deal was ↔ LP-Maker; 12 open BTC/ETH swap intents available right now

ok — 12 open intents expiring in 55-58mi

LP-Maker has 12 open swap intents live now; if momentum-nikita were alive and BTC/ETH momentum signal still holds, it could be re-entering or rotating. Unmeasurable in detail: watcher blind to book (dead process). Structurally: 411min of LP-Maker liquidity ignored.

Intent-resolution trigger (ownIntentResolved) is exactly right — re-decide when the position settles or expires, not on noise

90-min fallback covers the 1h RFQ window with buffer — cadence appropriate for a patient momentum rotator

Zero-LLM watcher, no book-sniff false-fire risk

No self-restart on watcher death — if the process crashes the agent has no recovery path outside the fallback window

Fallback already elapsed (~321min ago) and produced no wake, confirming zero self-healing beyond the first fallback

After manual restart: add a second shorter fallback (~30min) that re-arms itself on wake — so if Intent #28 is already settled on next boot, the agent immediately re-decides rather than waiting for ownIntentResolved on a stale ID.

Watcher process epidemic — 8 agents dead, no self-recovery

momentum-nikita is one of 8 agents with armed=false, pidAlive=false. The SDK watcher process dies and the 90-min fallback (the only recovery mechanism) elapsed ~321min ago without triggering a new wake. This is a shared infrastructure failure, not an agent logic failure.

Diagnose why watcher processes are dying fleet-wide (OOM, supervisor crash, SDK bug). Add process supervisor (e.g. keep-alive restart) or a platform-level dead-man switch that re-arms a watcher if pidAlive goes false and nextFallbackMin is null. Manual restart of all 8 crashed agents immediately.

Wake script has no post-restart recovery for already-settled intent

If Intent #28 settled while watcher was dead, a manual restart will re-run the watcher watching a stale ID that already resolved — ownIntentResolved will fire instantly but only because the intent is old, not because a meaningful event occurred. Agent may re-decide on stale context.

On restart, check intent #28 status first; if already settled, skip directly to re-decide logic and post a fresh intent rather than re-arming the old ID watcher.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: Thirteenth-plus consecutive dead cycle — no change: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, $0.15 lifetime spend (bootstrap attempt only). The $0.15 was never followed by watcher installation. Option-Writer-Matheus now has 3 options expiring in 1m/16m/17m — all are near-decided by time alone (mission criteria), and the 1m one expi

Option-Taker has never executed a single wake. The blocker is structural: wake_script_source=null means the watcher daemon was never installed after the $0.15 init spend. Three Option-Writer options (1m/16m/17m to expiry) satisfy near-decided criteria by definition — all will expire unclaimed.

wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. $0.15 lifetime = one bootstrap invocation that did not complete watcher installation. No deals indexed. 3 option-writer-matheus options expiring imminently with 0 taker response across the entire option-writer lifet

Cannot assess — agent has produced zero reasoning output in its lifetime. The mission is sound (take near-decided/cheap ITM ETH/BTC options from option-writer-matheus), and the counterparty is active with 12 settled deals. The failure is pre-reasoning: the agent never reached the reasoning stage.

MISSING: watcher never installed — wake_script_source=null means no trigger exists at all

MISSING: fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — no self-wake path even without a book trigger

Direct writer of ETH/BTC options this agent is designed to take; 3 live options expiring 1m/16m/17m, all near-decided by time — exact missio

active, health=ok, 12 settled deals this

Also evaluates options but as a buyer/evaluator, not a writer — same side of the trade

All 3 option-writer-matheus options expiring in 1m, 16m, 17m are direct misses — near-decided by time alone satisfies this agent's stated criteria. The 1m option is already effectively expired. Prior summary noted ETH put intent #71 (1% OTM, $0.60 premium) was also in-scope and presumed missed. Every option written since agent creation has gone uncontested by this agent.

wake_script_source=null — no script exists; watcher was never installed

No fallback timer set (nextFallbackMin=null) — agent cannot self-recover

armed=false + pidAlive=false — fully offline with no re-entry path

Bootstrap the agent: run its CLAUDE.md entrypoint to completion so it installs a wake script. Minimum viable watcher: poll option-writer-matheus open intents every 5-10 min, trigger on any option with ≤20 min to expiry or strike within 2% o

Watcher never bootstrapped — wake_script_source=null

$0.15 init spend did not produce a watcher installation. Agent has 0 wakes across its entire lifetime. All option-writer-matheus options (the sole active counterparty) have expired uncontested.

Re-run agent bootstrap to install wake script. Confirm armed=true and nextFallbackMin is set before considering it live.

Bootstrap completion not verified — $0.15 spend with no watcher artifact

The SDK allowed an agent to reach health=unknown with a $0.15 spend but no installed watcher and no error state. Two other agents (arb-hunter-tom, bear-yosher) show similar null-script patterns. A failed bootstrap should flip health to 'crashed' and surface a CTA, not leave the agent silently dark.

Add post-bootstrap check: if wake_script_source=null after init spend > $0, mark health=crashed and emit a bootstrap-failed alert.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Engine 1 premium income — portfolio is balanced and ready for option writing. Sell options near-money (1% OTM) to earn p

ETH put option (0xd5) resolves or 90min fallback

Summary: Agent bootstrapped this cycle and progressed through a full arc: W1–W6 built the 70/30 portfolio via 12 LP-Maker swaps (deals 1–12, +$16.99 PnL); W8–W12 attempted stock rebalance trims (0x88→0x92) that went unfilled even at 6% discount; W13 recovered a 93%-inventory crisis by accepting inbound LP-Maker bids (deal 20, 12 USDC); W14 ETH call post failed (tx ti

The 70/30 swap engine is executing cleanly (12 fills, +$16.99 PnL, sole counterparty LP-Maker). The 30% option-writing sleeve is structurally dead on arrival — Option-Taker-Matheus has never woken, so every option written (including the 3 Step-1 flagged near-expiry and the freshly posted 0xd5) will expire unfilled. This is a fleet gap, not an agent fault.

All 12 settled deals are swap↔LP-Maker; 0 option deals ever. Option-Taker-Matheus: 0 wakes, health=unknown. ETH put 0xd5 (premium 0.22 USDC) has no natural buyer on the network.

Sound and adaptive — correctly re-prices cheaper (never higher: 0x88→0x8f at −6.2%, 0x89→0x92 at −5.8%), freezes capital under stress (W12), accepts inbound fills to escape inventory lock (W13 deal 20), pivots from failed ETH call to ETH put (W14→W15). Executing the right playbook into the wrong market: disciplined option-writing with zero takers is the problem, not the reasoning.

ownIntentResolved on 0xd5 (fill, expiry, or cancel)

MISSING: no trigger on option-taker becoming active (would allow faster re-posting with a live buyer)

Sole confirmed swap counterparty — 12/12 deals; fills stock+crypto legs

Purpose-built to buy options from this agent

Might buy options if premium is mispriced vs Polymarket implied vol; mission is plausible overlap

Takes mispriced intents — a deeply discounted option could attract it

None for the swap engine. Option sleeve opportunities are unmeasurable — watcher monitors own-intent resolution only, cannot see whether other agents viewed and rejected option intents.

Watches the specific intent ID (0xd5) for resolution — precise, not book-polling

90-min fallback covers the 60-min option window with buffer — cadence matches the instrument

Zero-LLM, stateless, cannot fire on 'book non-empty'

Will always hit the 90-min fallback while Option-Taker is dead — burning ~$1 USDC/wake on no-op cycles

No signal on option-taker bootstrap or polymarket-ljuba activity that could indicate a live option buyer has appeared

Add a secondaryCheck: if the prior N fallbacks all expired unfilled (detectable via intent state), extend fallbackMs to 180 min and log 'option sleeve dormant — no takers' to reduce burn rate while the fleet is option-buyer-free.

Option-Taker-Matheus never bootstrapped — option sleeve has 0 buyers

Option-Writer has posted options since W1; Option-Taker has 0 wakes ever. All option intents (including 3 flagged in Step-1 near-expiry and current 0xd5) expire unfilled. The option writing engine produces no revenue despite correct execution.

Bootstrap Option-Taker-Matheus. It is the only purpose-built buyer; until it wakes, the 30% option sleeve of every option-writer earns nothing.

Rebalance trim intents (sAAPL/sMSFT) went unfilled even at 6% discount

W8–W9: 0x88/0x89→0x8f/0x92 posted at 5.8–6.2% below oracle mid, never filled. LP-Maker is the only active swap counterparty and apparently didn't lift these. Agent eventually escaped via accepting inbound LP-Maker bids (W13 deal 20).

Review whether sell-side stock intents at 6% discount are within LP-Maker's fill parameters, or whether a different framing (smaller size, shorter expiry) would clear. Consider reducing trim lot size to match LP-Maker's observable appetite.

W14 ETH call tx timeout with no diagnostic on cause

W14 posted ETH call → timeout (tx 0xc07...). Agent pivoted immediately to ETH put, which worked in W15. No root cause recorded — could be network congestion, collateral approval gap, or option judge issue specific to calls vs puts.

Log the failure reason from the tx receipt in the wake note. If puts succeed and calls consistently timeout, the call path in the Option judge may have a bug — worth one isolated test.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Highest-edge near-even maker candidate: ETH$1700 Jun9 edge=10.3%, $124k liquidity. Shade 60.3%-1.5%=58.8%. Exposure $10+

intent#32 or #89 fills/expires, or new takeable BinaryBet/Option on book (fallback June 9 20:00 UTC)

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 10 USDC, 0.617 implied) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 10 USDC, 0.588 implied) both posted as maker; settled_deals_detail=[], 0 counterparties have filled. No arb-hunter-tom or mimic-ljuba fill recorded.

ownIntentResolved on #32 or #89 (fill or expiry event)

T-5min pre-expiry inline check: nowSec >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300 (Jun9 15:55 UTC)

newMatches: fresh BinaryBet/Option intent posted by non-self address

Fallback: Jun9 20:00 UTC (4h post-expiry)

Mission: take near-decided binary bets against lagging oracle — both intents are in-the-money vs oracle; oracle $63,457 < $64k strike makes

watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=fals

Mission: accept winnable open bets re-priced to live oracle — live BinaryBet vs Bear-Yosher already active, capacity may be consumed; could

Mission: take near-decided binaries — intents are in-the-money but shaded conservatively (not clearly mispriced), so vulture may not see suf

Mission: short ETH/BTC via Perpetuals, not BinaryBet taker; wrong instrument class

Pre-expiry T-5min check (nowSec >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300) is present, correct, and will fire at Jun9 15:55 UTC — directly answering Step-1 focus question

60s poll cadence: appropriate for binary resolution; catches the T-5min window with at most 60s slip

ownIntentResolved watches both #32 and #89 independently — will fire immediately on fill without waiting for fallback

isNewTakeable correctly excludes own intents and filters to BinaryBet/Option — no false fires on swap book noise

Zero-LLM watcher; all checks are deterministic

Fallback at EXPIRY_SEC + 4h (20:00 UTC Jun9) is 4h post-expiry — useless for pre-settlement action; it only catches a post-expiry reassessment if the T-5min che

preExpireFired flag is in-memory: if the watcher process crashes and restarts between now and T-5min, flag resets to false and will re-fire (harmless double-wak

Baseline-round skip on `seen` initialization means the first poll after arm doesn't scan for new intents — acceptable 60s blind window at startup

arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew dead watchers block polymarket-ljuba fills

The two agents most likely to take polymarket-ljuba's in-the-money BinaryBets both have dead watchers (armed=false, pidAlive=false). As long as they're offline, intents #32 and #89 have effectively 1 reachable counterparty (mimic-ljuba). Re-arming either would be the event most likely to produce a s

Re-arm arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew; polymarket-ljuba's intents are on-book and correctly priced, they just need a live taker.

Fallback fires 4h post-expiry — provides no pre-settlement safety net

FALLBACK_UNIX_SEC = EXPIRY_SEC + 4*3600. If the process restarts at T-5min and the preExpireFired flag resets, the inline check still fires, but the fallback is not a backstop for that window.

Set FALLBACK_UNIX_SEC = EXPIRY_SEC - 600 (T-10min) so the fallback is a true pre-expiry safety net. Add a separate post-expiry re-arm inside the T-5min wake handler if post-expiry reassessment is needed.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: Still 0 deals, 0 open intents, 1 lifetime wake (w1 at 17:20 UTC Jun-08, 438 min ago). Watcher is fully dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false) — no self-wake path exists. LP-Maker's BTC ask (~$63,150) has crossed lior's last implied bid (~$63,348) by ~$198 (0.31%) since this cycle's quote refresh, meaning a favorable DCA fill is available right now but lior canno

The crashed watcher is the sole blocker. LP-Maker's ask (~$63,150) crossed lior's implied bid (~$63,348) by $198 this cycle — a live, favorable fill is available on the $7 BTC DCA slice — but lior has no self-wake path and has been dark for 438 min. The arbitrage window has been open since LP-Maker refreshed quotes this cycle (at minimum one observer interval, ~15–60 min, and counting).

Wake script hardcoded to intent #13 (expired, open_intents=0) and 2026-06-08T17:30 UTC market open (438 min past). 4h fallback from armWatcher would have elapsed at ~21:20 UTC Jun-08 but PID was already dead. No surviving trigger. Watcher cannot re-arm itself.

Sound at w1 — BTC correctly identified as most underweight at -35pp, $7 DCA slice sized correctly, registration prereq handled. But the reasoning produced a single-use wake script that cannot survive its own intent expiry. The agent is solving the right problem (DCA rebalancing) with correct logic, but the wake-script architecture collapses after one cycle — solving the right problem with a struct

ownIntentResolved(intent #13) — DEAD: intent #13 expired, open_intents=0

setTimeout for 2026-06-08T17:30 UTC market open — DEAD: 438 min past

4h fallback from armWatcher — DEAD: elapsed at ~21:20 UTC Jun-08, PID gone

MISSING: no trigger for 'no open intent → post fresh one'; no recurring cadence after intent cycle ends

LP-Maker is quoting BTC swaps at ~$63,150 — below lior's ~$63,348 implied bid by $198; would fill a fresh BTC buy intent immediately

alive/ok, 12 open swap intents, refreshi

LP-Maker BTC ask ~$63,150 available since this cycle's quote refresh — lior's implied bid of ~$63,348 would fill at ~$198 favorable spread on 0.0001105 BTC (~$0.02 net gain on the slice, plus on-target DCA execution). Window open for at minimum one observer interval (~15–60 min). Lior cannot act because watcher is dead.

Correctly arms a fallback (4h) as safety net

ownIntentResolved logic is appropriate — re-wake when the intent settles to decide the next slice

Market-open trigger was sensible for stock DCA at time of writing

Single-use: hardcoded intent ID '13' and hardcoded date '2026-06-08T17:30:00Z' — both are now expired/past, leaving zero live triggers

No recovery path when open_intents=0 and no prior intent is pending — the normal state between DCA cycles

4h fallback elapsed without a successor script; process died with no re-arm

Rewrite current.ts to be stateless and date-independent: check open_intents at startup — if none, fireWake immediately so the agent can post a fresh slice; otherwise watch for ownIntentResolved on whatever the current intent ID is, with a 4

Single-use wake script — dead after intent #13 expiry

current.ts is hardcoded to intent #13 (expired) and 2026-06-08T17:30 UTC (438 min past). Both triggers are inert. The 4h fallback elapsed and the PID is gone. Lior has no self-wake path and is missing a live $198-favorable BTC fill right now.

Rewrite current.ts: on startup, if open_intents=0 call fireWake() immediately to enter the next DCA cycle; if intent is live, watch ownIntentResolved on the current ID. Strip all hardcoded IDs and dates. Restart the watcher process.

No self-recovery after watcher PID death

Armed=false, pidAlive=false with no scheduled fallback (nextFallbackMin=null). Once the PID dies between DCA cycles, the agent is permanently stuck until manual intervention.

Add a cron or supervisor entry to restart the watcher process if PID is dead and no wake has occurred in >2h — this is the DCA cadence floor.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

No sweepable sell-side sNVDA within 0.5% of oracle. Posted bait bid at oracle×0.99 to attract mean-reverters.

intent 78 resolves / sell-side sNVDA / oracle drift / 16:30 ET fallback

Summary: Still 0 deals lifetime, 1 wake ever (06-08T19:52). Intent #78 (0.50 USDC bait at oracle×0.99, sNVDA=$207.56 implied bid) posted then expired unfilled — confirmed by open_intents=0. Watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false): the 30-min fallback (20:22 UTC Jun 8) never fired because the watcher process died first — same core SDK epidemic. Focus question answe

0 deals in 1 wake, 286 min offline. The sizing mismatch is confirmed permanent: LP-Maker (sole active hub) cannot fill 0.50 USDC lots, and no other live agent acts as a small-lot sNVDA seller. Without a dedicated small-lot counterparty or a lot-size increase (e.g., to LP-Maker's minimum), this agent posts only to expire.

Intent #78: 0.50 USDC bid at oracle×0.99 — expired unfilled. LP-Maker minimum >> 0.50 USDC (structural floor). No small-lot sNVDA sell-side counterparty exists in the fleet. Vulture-Andrew (only plausible small-lot taker) is crashed (armed=false). All 4 other swap-capable agents (rebalancer-lior, sw

Sound reasoning for a broken market. The 1% oracle discount bait is a legitimate tactic to attract mean-reverters and it correctly identifies that LP-Maker won't fill at this size. But it's solving the right sub-problem (price discovery) in a market with no structural buyer — the fleet simply has no agent configured or able to fill 0.50 USDC sNVDA swaps. Disciplined execution of a correct strategy

intent 78 resolves (fill or expire) — already expired, now stale

new sell-side sNVDA intent ≤ oracle×1.005 — no active sNVDA sellers in fleet

oracle drift >0.5% from $207.76 — valid cadence trigger

MISSING: self-rearming after each wake (watcher process dies; next wake never scheduled)

MISSING: fallback timestamp AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 (Jun 8 20:30 UTC) is now 12+ hours in the past — hardcoded stale deadline, guarantees no future fallback

Minimum lot size structurally above 0.50 USDC — cannot fill stacker's bait bids regardless of price

Mission includes taking baited near-sure-win intents; 1% oracle discount could qualify, but 0.50 USDC lot may be below vulture's economic th

Could supply sNVDA if overweight, but mission is DCA buyer not seller; unlikely to be net sNVDA seller

Fades dislocations — if sNVDA is stretched above average, swing could sell; small lots compatible

none — stacker is a pure buyer (USDC→sNVDA); it cannot take intents, only post. No sell-side sNVDA intents were open during the analysis window (0 open intents fleet-wide matching the profile).

Watches own intent resolution before re-posting — avoids duplicate escrow lock

Oracle drift trigger (>0.5%) correctly re-prices the bid when market moves

Checks new sell-side sNVDA at ≤ oracle×1.005 — right condition to act on a fill opportunity

AFTERHOURS_TS hardcoded to Jun 8 20:30 UTC — now 12+ hours stale; fallbackMs resolves to Math.max(60_000, negative) = 60_000 on next deploy, producing a 1-min f

Script header says 'Stacker-Nova wake watcher' — wrong agent name, copy-paste artifact (minor but signals script provenance)

No self-rearm after each wake: once the watcher process dies (SDK epidemic), no new watcher is spawned; intent #78 expired without triggering a second wake

Bait bid logic assumes a sell-side sNVDA counterparty exists — watcher should check if any sell-side sNVDA intents exist at all before locking USDC in escrow

Replace hardcoded AFTERHOURS_TS with a rolling deadline: `const fallbackMs = 30 * 60 * 1000` (30-min recurring fallback regardless of time-of-day). This makes the watcher cadence time-independent and ensures the agent re-wakes even when int

Watcher process dies before fallback fires — SDK epidemic

armed=false, pidAlive=false across 8/12 agents including stacker. The 30-min fallback set at 19:52 UTC Jun 8 never fired; only 1 wake in agent lifetime.

Core SDK watcher process must survive to fire scheduled fallbacks; likely a process supervisor or restart-on-crash fix at the SDK level.

Hardcoded stale AFTERHOURS_TS deadline

AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 (Jun 8 20:30 UTC) is 12+ hours expired. On next deploy, msUntilAfterhours will be negative, making fallbackMs=60_000 (1 min) — unintended hyper-polling.

Replace with `const fallbackMs = 30 * 60 * 1000` — a time-independent rolling 30-min fallback.

No small-lot sNVDA counterparty — structural deal-path gap

LP-Maker minimum >> 0.50 USDC. Zero lifetime deals confirm this isn't a pricing issue — it's a fleet configuration gap. Stacker will never deal without a compatible counterparty.

Either (a) increase stacker's lot size to LP-Maker's minimum in CLAUDE.md, or (b) configure a dedicated small-lot sNVDA liquidity agent. Option (a) changes mission scope; option (b) is the correct fleet-level fix. Escalate to fleet operator — this is not fixable within stacker's own CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: Dead confirmed 8th+ consecutive cycle. last_wake_min_ago advanced 615→675 (+60min), sustaining the exact ~60min/cycle clock-drift across every prior run — zero new activity. USDC IS approved on-chain (tx 0x0d06163644f8581c3ec4dd02551e60135e15b695e9e2768a14…, confirmed in the one wake at 06-08T13:23), so not in pre-approval limbo. Stuck post-approval but pre-

USDC approval succeeded (on-chain tx confirmed), so the agent cleared pre-trade setup. The blocker is the warmup price-sampler: it died after the single wake and its 60-min fallback never fired. The dislocation signal requires a rolling price history it has never been able to build — 10+ collection windows missed, ~10.5h overdue. Manual restart is the only recovery path.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; 1 wake ever (06-08T13:23, $0.56 spent on USDC approval only); 0 settled deals; 0 open intents; 0 price samples collected; fallback due ~14:23 06-08 UTC, now ~10.5h overdue

Strategy logic is sound — trailing-average dislocation fade is coherent, and approving USDC first is correct sequencing. But the agent is solving the right problem on a platform that killed its sampler. It cannot self-diagnose or self-restart; it is disciplined-looking churn at the process level, not the reasoning level.

60-min time-based fallback (armWatcher fallbackMs=3600000)

MISSING: no cron/persisted schedule — if the process dies, the fallback dies with it and nothing re-arms it

LP-Maker quotes BTC/ETH swaps near oracle mid — swing-nikita's dislocation swaps would route against it

alive (health: ok, 12 open swap intents)

Lior posts DCA delivered swaps that could overlap with swing's dislocation direction

Unmeasurable: the agent has never computed a dislocation signal (0 price samples collected), so no counterfactual fills can be assessed. Even if LP-Maker posted a fillable dislocation, swing-nikita had no signal to act on.

60-min cadence is correct for warmup price sampling — patient, not a sub-minute poll

runWatchLoop with a time-based fallback is appropriate here; no book condition needed during warmup

Label 'warmup sample collection' accurately reflects the current phase

No persistence beyond the process: if the process dies, the fallback is gone — there is no cron, no external scheduler, no re-arm on startup

No transition logic: script doesn't show how it graduates from warmup to dislocation-signal mode once enough samples exist

Replace the in-process armWatcher fallback with a persisted cron or restart-on-exit supervisor so sample collection survives process death. One missed wake at warmup means permanent stall — the fallback must outlive the process.

Fallback dies with the process — no persistent scheduler

armWatcher schedules the fallback inside the running Node process. When the process exits (crash, OOM, SIGTERM), nextFallbackMin becomes null and nothing re-arms. This is the epidemic affecting 8 of 12 agents this cycle.

Core/SDK should persist scheduled wakes to a durable store (cron table, file-backed queue) so a restart re-arms the fallback without a full agent wake.

Warmup sampler has no self-resurrection path

swing-nikita's current.ts has no re-arm logic on startup — if it's relaunched it will arm a fresh 60-min window, but it will never fire on its own. Needs a manual restart to unblock.

Add an on-startup check: if watcher.armed=false and last_wake_min_ago > fallbackMs threshold, immediately fire a warmup sample rather than waiting another 60 min.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

flat wallet — all tokens at 0, need basket to fund any deal or post bait

16 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1780953888; next poll 75s

Summary: Crashed 326min ago (up from 266min last run — 60min additional gap); wake_script_source=null confirmed missing watcher, no self-wake path exists. The single w1 (19:12) basket-buy remains the sole lifetime activity: 6 swaps at 8 USDC each filled by LP-Maker at oracle mid, producing $92.39 PnL — but these were portfolio-construction fills, not mispriced-quote

Vulture is hard-stopped: wake_script_source=null means no autonomous re-wake will ever fire. LP-Maker's 12 open quotes are oracle-priced by LP mission — not a vulture target. The real missed edge is Option-Writer-Matheus's 3 expiring options (1m / 16m / 17m expiry) which are near-decided and sit squarely in vulture's 'near-certain edge' mandate; all will expire untouched.

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — agent has no watcher installed and no fallback scheduled; gap 326min and growing. All 6 settled deals were oracle-mid basket buys from w1, not mispriced-quote captures.

w1 reasoning ('need basket to fund any deal or post bait') has internal logic — inventory as pre-condition for posting bait intents — but it solved the wrong problem: LP-Maker quotes at oracle mid by design, so buying that basket doesn't create any bait edge. The agent correctly read its wallet state but misidentified LP-Maker as a mispricing source. Sound loop mechanics, wrong problem.

MISSING: no wake_script_source installed — agent cannot self-trigger

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — no safety net

Would need: book scan for swap quotes >N bps off oracle, OR near-decided option/binary detection

All 6 prior deals were with LP-Maker; but LP-Maker quotes near oracle mid by mission — only actionable for vulture on rare momentary disloca

ok (alive, 12 open quotes, watcher epide

3 options expiring in 1m / 16m / 17m — near-decided, exactly vulture's 'near-certain edge' mandate; vulture's mission explicitly includes ne

Latency-arb on CEX feed — different template class, no overlap with vulture's swap/option picking

Option-Writer-Matheus posted 3 options expiring in 1m, 16m, 17m — near-decided, in-mission for vulture; all will expire without a fill. LP-Maker's 12 swap quotes (ETH, BTC, SSV, sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT) are oracle-aligned by LP design and do not qualify as mispriced per vulture's strict edge criteria.

No script installed at all (wake_script_source=null) — root cause of 326min gap

No fallback timer — even a dumb periodic wake would have caught the 3 expiring options

Without a script, agent cannot scan LP-Maker quotes for momentary dislocations or detect near-decided options from Option-Writer

Install a watcher that: (1) scans open swap intents for quotes >50 bps off oracle and (2) checks for Option-Writer options with <30min to expiry and high ITM probability — fire on either condition; add a 20min fallback. This directly matche

wake_script_source is null — no watcher installed

Agent has never had a watcher script. Gap is 326min and growing; no self-wake path. All 3 Option-Writer-Matheus options will expire untaken.

Write and deploy a current.ts watcher: poll open intents for swap mispricings (>50 bps off oracle) and near-decided options (<30min expiry); 20min fallback.

w1 off-mission: basket-buy at oracle mid is portfolio construction, not vulture picking

6 fills at 8 USDC each were LP-Maker oracle-mid quotes — no edge captured. The CLAUDE.md reasoning needs to separate 'inventory pre-condition' from 'actual mispriced-quote detection'; the agent should not spend USDC on oracle-priced buys.

Revise mission implementation: only take swaps with a measurable bps advantage over oracle; skip basket construction unless bait intent strategy is explicitly proven profitable.

SDK EPIDEMIC, HUB ISOLATED

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Option-Writer-Matheus (12 deals) · Vulture-Andrew (6) · Arb-Hunter-Tom (1) · Momentum-Nikita (1) · Bear-Yosher (1)

LP-Maker sole hub; all 4 crashed counterparties dark — no inbound flow until man

Polymarket-Ljuba → (no taker) | Mimic-Ljuba ⇄ Bear-Yosher (1 deal live, unresolved)

Maker-only; 2 Polymarket-Ljuba intents open (~914m left) unfilled; Bear-Yosher c

Frozen: ETH call $1,711.79 + ETH put $1,677.90 expiring imminently, 0 option fil

Structurally dead: 0.50 USDC bid below LP-Maker floor; no small-lot sell-side ex

SDK watcher epidemic: 8/12 agents have armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null

LP-Maker stranded as sole liquidity hub with only Option-Writer as active counterparty; funnel stuck at 10.9% conversion

All 25 settled deals involve LP-Maker; 4 of its 5 counterparties dark (arb-hunter-tom 289min, bear-yosher 356min, momentum-nikita 411min, vulture-andrew 326min); fallbacks registered in scripts (4h be

Option-Taker-Matheus never bootstrapped (wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, $0.15 lifetime = failed bootstrap only)

Options market completely frozen: Option-Writer posted 12+ options this cycle with 0 option fills; ETH call ($1,711.79 s

option-writer rootCause class=counterparty-starved, '0 option deals ever'; option-taker wakes=0, armed=false, pidAlive=false

Rebalancer-Lior watcher dead 438min (intent #13 hardcoded to expired address, no self-wake path)

$198 (0.31%) arb window open: LP-Maker BTC ask ~$63,150 has crossed Lior's last implied bid ~$63,348 but Lior cannot act

rebalancer-lior: 'LP-Maker BTC ask (~$63,150) crossed lior's last implied bid (~$63,348) by ~$198'; open_intents=0; armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null

Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded flat prior

Took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair by agent's own w5 text), claiming +22pp edge as arithmetic

mimic-ljuba rootCause: mispriced; 'FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims +22pp locked edge which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge'

Vulture-Andrew completed w1 basket buys (6 swaps, $92.39 PnL) but installed no watcher (wake_script_source=null)

Portfolio constructed then agent went dark 326min with no monitoring loop; cannot capture new LP-Maker quote refreshes (

vulture-andrew: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 326min dark; 'all 6 settled deals were oracle-mid basket buys from w1, not mispriced-quote captures'

Stacker-Massimo bid size (0.50 USDC) is structurally below LP-Maker's minimum floor

Intent #78 expired unfilled; 0 deals possible even if agent is alive and watcher is fixed — no counterparty exists for s

stacker-massimo: reliableCounterparties=0; 'LP-Maker minimum >> 0.50 USDC'; intent #78 expired unfilled; Vulture-Andrew (only plausible taker) also crashed

SDK watcher epidemic: 8/12 agents permanently dark

arb-hunter-tom (289min), bear-yosher (356min), momentum-nikita (411min), rebalancer-lior (438min), stacker-massimo, swing-nikita (675min), vulture-andrew (326min), option-taker-matheus (0 wakes ever) all share armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Kill pattern: watcher PID dies during/after script edits; OS-level fallbacks were never registered independently, so death = permanent dark.

8/12 watcher.armed=false; momentum-nikita 90min fallback due ~321min ago produced 0 new wakes; bear-yosher 4h fallback (356min elapsed) never triggered — PID already dead

Register an OS-level fallback (cron/systemd timer) at armWatcher() time, independent of the watcher PID. A dead process must not equal permanent dark — this one fix unblocks all 8 crashed agents simultaneously.

Options market frozen: 0 fills ever, 2 options expiring imminently

Option-Writer-Matheus posted 12+ options this cycle with 0 option fills lifetime. ETH call (strike $1,711.79, 0.25 USDC) and ETH put (strike $1,677.90, 0.22 USDC) were expiring at book-capture time (~7–8min left). Option-Taker-Matheus has never woken — $0.15 lifetime spend did not complete watcher installation.

option-taker-matheus: wakes=0, wake_script_source=null, armed=false; option-writer rootCause='counterparty-starved, 0 option deals ever'; open book shows 2 options at <10min expiry

Manually bootstrap Option-Taker-Matheus immediately. No in-flight action can save the current expirations, but the market will never clear without a live taker agent.

LP-Maker sole hub: PnL -$59.67, token burn 12.2% of pool in 5h

All 25 settled deals route through LP-Maker-Matheus. It is healthy (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=33) but oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers who extract edge, leaving LP-Maker as net donor to the fleet. With 8 counterparties dark, there is no two-way flow to balance the book.

lp-maker summary: 'PnL -$59.67', 'Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating'; 25/25 settled deals involve LP-Maker; only Option-Writer (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=46) is active counterparty

Restart crashed counterparties (vulture-andrew, arb-hunter-tom first — both have proven deal flow with LP-Maker) to restore two-way pressure; consider widening LP-Maker spreads above oracle mid to reduce informed-taker bleed.

Rebalancer-Lior: $198 arb window open, agent dark 438min

LP-Maker BTC ask ~$63,150 has crossed Lior's last implied bid ~$63,348 by $198 (0.31%). The fill is available right now but Lior's watcher is dead — wake script hardcoded to intent #13 (expired) and a market-open timestamp 438min past.

rebalancer-lior: 'LP-Maker BTC ask (~$63,150) crossed lior's last implied bid (~$63,348) by ~$198'; open_intents=0; armed=false; '4h fallback from armWatcher would have elapsed at ~21:20 UTC Jun-08 but PID already dead'

Manually restart rebalancer-lior; fix wake script to trigger on price level or elapsed time, not a hardcoded expired intent address.

Mimic-Ljuba: FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded — systematically mispriced bets

hasEdge() passes invalid because the flat prior produces spurious edge numbers (+22pp cited in w7). Agent took deep OTM 'above $65k' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair). Active BinaryBet ↔ Bear-Yosher (Deal #3) is a structurally losing position.

mimic-ljuba rootCause class=mispriced; 'FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 +22pp locked edge is the flat-prior artefact'; Deal #3 taker side deep OTM at oracle $63,383 vs $65k strike

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with oracle-calibrated probability (BTC distance to strike + implied vol + time to expiry) before any new position is taken.

Stacker-Massimo: bid floor mismatch makes deals impossible regardless of watcher fix

0.50 USDC bait (intent #78) is structurally below LP-Maker's minimum. Even if the watcher SDK is fixed and Stacker-Massimo restarts, it has 0 reliableCounterparties — no small-lot sNVDA sell-side exists in the fleet.

stacker-massimo: reliableCounterparties=0; 'LP-Maker minimum >> 0.50 USDC'; intent #78 expired unfilled; Vulture-Andrew (only plausible taker) crashed

Increase bid size to meet LP-Maker's minimum floor, or define a dedicated small-lot sNVDA counterparty before restarting — fixing the watcher alone won't produce deals.

Fix watcher crash-recovery: register an OS-level fallback (cron/systemd timer) at armWatcher() time, independent of the watcher PID. This single fix unblocks all 8 crashed agents and prevents the epidemic from recurring.

Manually bootstrap Option-Taker-Matheus — options market has never cleared a single deal; 2 options were expiring at observation time. This is the highest-leverage unblocked fleet action.

Manually restart Vulture-Andrew (326min dark, no watcher installed, $92.39 PnL baseline, proven LP-Maker flow) and Rebalancer-Lior (438min dark, $198 arb window open right now) — both can transact with LP-Maker immediately upon wake.

Fix Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB before next position: replace 0.5 flat prior with oracle-derived probability. Current logic will systematically take and lose OTM binary bets.

Marginal improvement vs last run: Option-Writer-Matheus launched and executed 12 deals (up from 0), LP-Maker refreshed 12 swap quotes, but 8 of 12 agents remain crashed (watcher epidemic unchanged) and Option-Taker is missing 3 expiring options right now.

8 agents crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false): arb-hunter-tom, bear-yosher, momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, vulture-andrew — watcher SDK epidemi

Option-Writer-Matheus has 3 options expiring in 1m, 16m, 17m — Option-Taker-Matheus is dead (0 wakes ever) and will miss all three

Rebalancer-Lior: LP-Maker BTC ask (~$63,150) crossed lior's last implied bid (~$63,348) by ~$198 (0.31%) — actionable fill available but lior crashed 436min ago with no self-wake path

25 settled / 229 posted = 10.9% conversion; only LP-Maker↔Option-Writer and Vulture↔LP-Maker pairs are trading; LP-Maker is sole liquidity hub

LP-Maker-Matheus 12 open swap intents all expire in 55-58min — watcher process dead (armed=false) between refreshes

Watcher dead 287min (armed=false, pidAlive=false, null fallback, $0 burn) — did it miss any near-decided binary bets since last wake, and is this a permanent core SDK kill or does a manual restart path exist?

BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba shows as 'live' not 'settled' in recent deals — has it resolved yet, and what is the current USDC balance after seeding sNVDA ($87.44 remaining at last summary)?

Woke 29min ago (now armed=false) with 12 open swap intents expiring in 55-58min — did this wake post fresh quotes or are these pre-crash stale quotes, and will the watcher revive before TTL expiry?

Armed and alive (nextFallbackMin=1139, pidAlive=true) but last woke 395min ago — is the watcher correctly staged for Polymarket-Ljuba's 2 expiring BinaryBets (923min to Jun 9 16:00 UTC expiry), and what P&L position does it hold from Deal #

5th consecutive dead cycle (last_wake 409min, watcher null) — did the re-decide fallback wake (~261min ago) write any new watcher at all, or is this permanently stalled requiring manual intervention?

Option-Writer has 3 live options expiring in 1m, 16m, 17m — agent has 0 wakes ever and armed=false; what is blocking its first bootstrap, and are these specific options within its ITM/near-decided criteria?

Currently running (last_wake=-1min, armed=true, nextFallbackMin=55) with 3 options expiring imminently — will those expire unfilled given Option-Taker is dead, and what does the current portfolio rotation state look like post-W6?

Armed and watching (nextFallbackMin=1164, pidAlive=true) with 2 BinaryBet intents (10 USDC + 10 USDC deposits) expiring ~923min at Jun 9 16:00 UTC — does the T-5min cancellation hook cover both open intents, and at what Polymarket implied p

LP-Maker's BTC ask (~$63,150) has crossed lior's last implied bid (~$63,348) by ~$198 — is the only blocker the crashed watcher (no self-wake path), and how long has this arbitrage window been open?

Structural sizing mismatch confirmed (LP-Maker minimum >> 0.50 USDC bait bid, 0 deals lifetime) — is there any deal path without mission revision, or must this be escalated as a fleet configuration issue requiring a dedicated small-lot coun

7+ dead cycles, last_wake 673min (only 1 ever wake was a USDC approval) — is this permanently stuck at warmup/approval stage, and has any USDC actually been approved or is it still in pre-trade limbo?

6 deals all from w1 basket-buy then crashed 324min ago — LP-Maker has 12 fresh swap quotes open right now (ETH, BTC, SSV, sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT); do any qualify as mispriced per vulture's mission, and what is blocking a wake?

Diagnose watcher process death (armed=false, pidAlive=false immediately post-deploy) affecting 8 of 12 agents — this is the single highest-leverage fleet fix; every new watcher deployment dies before

option-taker-matheus: 3 Option-Writer options expire in <17min — agent has never woken; manual bootstrap needed immediately or these fills are permanently lost

rebalancer-lior: LP-Maker BTC ask ~$63,150 crossed lior's implied bid ~$63,348 by $198 — manually trigger a wake now or the arbitrage window closes as LP-Maker quotes refresh in ~55min

stacker-massimo: 0.50 USDC bid is structurally below LP-Maker's minimum quoted lot — escalate mission revision or pair with a dedicated small-lot counterparty; current mission cannot produce deals

Only 3 agents alive (mimic-ljuba, option-writer-matheus, polymarket-ljuba); LP-Maker-Matheus is sole liquidity hub with no backup — 10.9% conversion rate is entirely dependent on one agent's uptime