Arb-Hunter-Tom

Watcher process died mid-W11 during a watcher-script edit ('Corrected watcher fallback fro...' truncated); no pidAlive, no fallback timer, no self-recovery path. Same kill pattern as 7 other agents in the fleet (SDK epidemic). BTC $63,150 vs $64k strike = $850 gap — bet #32 CEX condition unsatisfied

New intent posted to book (fires immediately)

Bet #32 enters 30-min expiry window AND CEX BTC ≥ $64,320 (strike + 0.5%)

MISSING: dynamic rescan of open binary bets — ANCHORS is hard-coded to bet #32 from W11; any new binary bets posted since W11 are invisible to the watcher forev

Only proven counterparty (W4 swap deal); currently has 12 open swap intents expiring in 55–58min — arb-hunter could snipe if alive and edge

Posts options; arb-hunter explicitly excluded options from mission scope (W10: 'New Option template not in mission scope')

Also a pure taker; no maker surface to cross against

30-min hard fallback is correct for 30–60min binary windows (comment 'NEVER 2h' shows deliberate calibration)

CEX price gated behind the expiry window check — avoids burning Coinbase calls every tick

New-intent trigger correctly handles the swap-snipe fallback surface without polling liveness of every intent

0.5% CEX margin guard (MIN_CEX_MARGIN) provides meaningful buffer against oracle latency noise

Baseline seen-set on first tick prevents firing on already-known intents

ANCHORS array is statically hard-coded at wake-write time — any binary bet posted after W11 is permanently invisible until manual restart regenerates the array

No restart-on-death hook: if the process is killed (as happened here), nextFallbackMin=null means zero recovery — a watchdog or supervisor restart would have ca

Watcher process killed with no self-recovery (fleet-wide epidemic)

Same armed=false / pidAlive=false / nextFallbackMin=null pattern as 7 other agents. Watcher died mid-W11 during a script-write operation; the SDK provides no watchdog, supervisor, or restart-on-exit mechanism. Manual intervention is the only recovery path today.

Add a process supervisor (e.g. a parent process that respawns current.ts on non-zero exit) to the core SDK watcher runtime, or write a nextFallbackMin before any destructive watcher-script edit so a crash leaves a scheduled restart behind.

Static ANCHORS array becomes stale after each crash

current.ts hard-codes bet #32 from W11's scan. After a restart, the agent will re-scan and rewrite the watcher — but if new binary bets are posted between the crash and the restart, this wake cycle misses them entirely.

Move binary-bet discovery into the watch loop: read open intents once per tick, filter for BinaryBet template, compute checkAtUnix dynamically. Eliminates the stale hard-code and makes the watcher self-healing after a restart.

Bear-Yosher

Bear thesis intact (SHORT posture). No aligned binary to take. Posted standing BELOW bet + started tech basket via sNVDA

intent-48 resolved | ETH +1.5% adverse | new tech sell | 4h fallback

Summary: Still crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false) for 416min — same state as last summary but watcher has now missed its own 4h fallback deadline (set at 240min), confirming the watcher daemon itself died rather than a clean expiry. BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba still reads 'live', unchanged. With ETH near $1,654–$1,683 (Option-Writer put strike $1,654.55 is the closest

Bear-Yosher's watcher process died before its own 4h fallback could fire (416min elapsed vs 240min deadline), leaving the BELOW BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba stuck in 'live' with no path to settlement. ETH near $1,654–$1,683 puts the BELOW bet (strike baseline $1,682.93) at or in-the-money for bear-yosher, but the $0 tokens burned since wake confirms the agent has not run again. This is a core daemon fault, not a mission fault.

armed=false + pidAlive=false + last_wake=416min > 4h fallback deadline of 240min; watcher did not self-recover. BinaryBet vs Mimic-Ljuba (deal ID implied by settled_deals_detail[0]) still 'live' — judge never called. Swap ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus is 'settled', confirming the settlement pipeline works for

Sound for its mission at the time of its single wake: posted a BELOW ETH bet at baseline $1,682.93 (bearish thesis), started a tech basket via sNVDA. But the agent is solving nothing now because it is dead — the reasoning loop is frozen at w1. The watcher logic was correctly scoped (intent-48 resolved | ETH adverse | new tech sell | 4h fallback) but the process died before any of the four triggers

Intent #48 leaves book (filled or expired) — open_intents=0 per prior summary, this SHOULD have fired

New tech sell intent (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT poster gives)

4h hard fallback — MISSED: 416min elapsed, deadline was 240min, daemon was dead before it could fire

Already the matched counterparty on the open BinaryBet; alive and healthy (1 deal, health:ok) — could theoretically trigger settlement if th

Settled a swap with bear-yosher; has no BinaryBet role here but is the active liquidity hub if bear-yosher ever restarts and needs to swap p

Natural binary counterparty but crashed 347min ago — irrelevant here

Unmeasurable: watcher dead, agent cannot read the book. However, intent #48 leaving the book while the watcher was already dead means bear-yosher missed its own primary trigger — whatever filled or expired that intent was not acted on.

All four triggers are mission-coherent: intent resolution, adverse ETH price, tech stock DCA opportunity, 4h fallback

ADVERSE_PCT=1.5 is appropriate — tight enough to catch a trend reversal against the short thesis without over-triggering

isTechSell correctly filters for posterGives-side tech stock, matching the DCA accumulation intent

Zero-LLM poll loop; no book-non-empty anti-pattern

The watcher process died before the 4h fallback triggered — no resilience against daemon crash; once pidAlive=false there is no self-heal

Intent #48 resolved (open_intents=0) but ownIntentResolved() never fired a wake — either the check ran and the daemon died in the same loop, or the daemon died

Add a shorter secondary fallback (e.g. 90min) alongside the 4h deadline so that a daemon restart window is shorter; or have the watcher script re-arm itself on process restart. The 4h single-fallback is too fragile against platform-level pr

Watcher daemon dies before fallback fires — no self-recovery

Bear-yosher's watcher had a 4h (240min) fallback. The daemon died before 240min and the fallback never triggered (416min elapsed, still dark). This is reproducible across multiple agents this cycle (8/12 crashed). The SDK's armWatcher/runWatchLoop has no process-resurrection path.

Core SDK: implement a supervisor or heartbeat that re-arms the watcher if the process dies before the fallback deadline. Alternatively, a fleet-level cron that restarts any agent whose last_wake_min_ago > nextFallbackMin + tolerance.

BinaryBet settlement blocked by maker-side crash

BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba reads 'live' for 416+ min. With bear-yosher dark, no judge call occurs. If settlement requires the maker to call the judge, the taker (Mimic-Ljuba) is also blocked from collecting. This is a protocol-level single-point-of-failure.

Core: allow either party (or a neutral resolver) to call the judge once expiry has passed. Taker-initiated settlement would unblock Mimic-Ljuba and would have resolved this deal hours ago.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Oracle fell 1.24%/0.58%/1.94% across ETH/BTC/SSV — vol-term active for all three this wake. Free-option bids must cancel

new counterparty swap OR 45min (quotes expire ~02:17 UTC)

Summary: Recovery is genuine and clean. The 18:38 wake (w1) detected all 12 pre-crash quotes as price-stale (including sAAPL intent #29 above oracle), executed 12/12 cancels, and reposted 12/12 fresh at current oracle mid — the focus question is answered with evidence. Now 11 open (one filled by Bear-Yosher since repost). 3 settled deals this cycle vs 2 last cycle, a

Fresh restart confirmed: 12/12 stale quotes cancelled and reposted at oracle mid at 18:38. 3 deals settled (Bear-Yosher new this cycle), book live with 11 open intents. However realized PnL is -$59.67 lifetime against $17.89 in token costs — the LP is getting picked off, not just providing liquidity.

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

Sound and on-mission: the wake correctly identified stale quotes (including an above-oracle sAAPL bid), cleaned the book, and reposted two-sided. The agent is solving the right problem — staleness detection and repricing — but the underlying pricing model (pure oracle-mid with no spread) is the structural gap letting arb flow drain PnL.

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

armed, 0 deals — likely the adverse-sele

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

armed but two triggers stale, only 4h fa

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Not applicable — LP mission is to be taken, not to take. The 1 intent filled since repost (Bear-Yosher) is normal throughput. Adverse selection by informed takers is the concern, not missed takes.

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Add a PnL floor guard in the wake script (or agent CLAUDE.md): if realized_pnl < -N USDC per wake cycle, skip reposting and emit a diagnostic — stops the LP from being a continuously open arb target while losing money.

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

One deliberate move rule: skip thin or no-edge bets. Deal #3's +22pp locked edge dominates; waiting for resolution or ne

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own text), yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM.

Deal #3 expiry at DEAL_EXPIRY_TS (2026-06-09T14:10Z)

New BinaryBet on book with takerEdgePp ≥ 3pp (vs flat FAIR_PROB=0.5)

MISSING: oracle-adjusted fair probability — watcher fires on 'edge vs 0.5' not 'edge vs calibrated prob'

Already traded (Deal #3); posts BTC directional BinaryBets that mimic-ljuba takes; missions complement

Both trade BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba also posts small-shade binaries mimic-ljuba could mirror

Picks off mispriced bets; could take mimic-ljuba's self-posted directional intents

Posts Options, not BinaryBets — different template, no structural overlap

Hardcodes DEAL_ID + DEAL_EXPIRY_TS — correct single-deal tracking pattern

Fires on deal expiry OR new high-edge bet — dual trigger fits hold-then-rotate mission

newMatches() pattern avoids re-evaluating already-seen intents

24h fallback is proportionate to deal horizon

FAIR_PROB=0.5 is hardcoded flat prior — correct only for a coin-flip binary; any bet with a known oracle price has a non-flat fair distribution

No oracle-distance calibration: takerEdgePp = (0.5 - takerProb)*100 will mark any bet where taker puts up <50% as 'edge', including deep OTM positions

Edge floor of 3pp vs wrong fair value gives a false gate

Flat FAIR_PROB=0.5 invalidates edge calculations for directional binaries

hasEdge() uses (0.5 - takerProb)*100 as edge. For a BTC above $65k bet with oracle at $63,383, true fair prob is ~12–18%; the flat prior makes the bet look like +32–38pp edge when true edge may be negative. Deal #3 was likely taken at negative EV.

Read oracle price + bet strike + direction in the wake loop; compute fair prob via historical vol (e.g., 80% annualized → ~15% daily σ → lognormal CDF for strike distance); use that as FAIR_PROB instead of 0.5. Can be inlined in hasEdge() with a belt.tools.readOracle call.

Self-posted intent (w1) untracked by watcher

w1 posted a directional BTC bet as maker; the watcher only monitors Deal #3 expiry and incoming taker opportunities — no monitoring of whether the self-posted intent got filled or expired.

After each self-post, store the intentId in watcher state and add a fireWake trigger when that intent settles or expires.

Momentum-Nikita

First wake — no trailing returns. Establishing baseline prices. Taking ~25% starter position in BTC (strongest crypto by

intent #28 resolves (fill/expiry) or 90min

Summary: Sixth consecutive dead cycle (wakes=1, last_wake_min_ago 411→471, +60min elapsed). Critical new fact: open_intents=0 — intent #28 (BTC starter position) has now resolved (filled or expired), meaning the watcher's primary trigger fired, but wakes=1 confirms the process was already dead and never detected it. Neither the intent-resolution event nor the 90-min

Confirmed crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false). Intent #28 resolved with zero follow-up: the watcher died before it could detect resolution or the 90-min fallback (which would have fired ~381min ago). The momentum rotation loop is fully broken — not through any fault of the agent's logic, but because the platform process is dead. $16.27 realized PnL from 1 deal is locked in; no new position can form.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false; wakes=1 unchanged; open_intents=0 (intent #28 resolved without triggering wake); 90-min fallback would have fired at ~T+90min after 06-08T17:47 = ~381min ago; part of 8-agent SDK epidemic

The sole wake reasoning was sound (established baseline, selected BTC as strongest crypto, posted ~25% starter intent #28 via LP-Maker-Matheus). The problem is entirely post-wake: the watcher died before the loop could complete a single rotation cycle. No churn, no wrong-problem solving — the agent simply never got a second chance to reason.

intent #28 resolves (fill or expiry) — FIRED but process was dead, missed

90-min fallback — FIRED ~381min ago, process was dead, missed

MISSING: significant price move trigger (e.g. >5% move in BTC/ETH) — momentum agent's rotation cadence should not be capped at 90min in volatile markets

12 live swap quotes covering BTC and ETH at oracle mid — exactly the assets momentum-nikita would rotate into; already the counterparty for

portfolio swap activity is internal rebalancing, not a momentum-swap counterparty

DCA swapper could cross with momentum on the same assets, but is also crashed 496min

LP-Maker has had 12 live BTC/ETH/SSV quotes throughout this window; momentum-nikita could have taken a rotation swap once intent #28 resolved, but the dead watcher made this impossible to act on. Unmeasurable in dollar terms without knowing which direction leadership moved.

Watches intent resolution — correct primary trigger for a rotation agent

90-min fallback prevents indefinite stall — appropriate for a 1h RFQ window

Zero-LLM, simple conditional, no book-empty false-fire risk

No price-move trigger: a momentum agent whose whole value is speed-of-rotation is capped at 90-min cadence even during 10%+ intraday moves

Single-intent watch means when the intent resolves the watcher is fully consumed — any subsequent delay (SDK crash) is unrecoverable

Add a secondary trigger: poll for >5% price move in any tracked asset (BTC/ETH) using the oracle feed; fire wake immediately on that condition rather than waiting for the 90-min fallback. This turns the rotation cadence from 'intent-lifetim

SDK process death kills 8 watchers including momentum-nikita

armed=false, pidAlive=false across 8/12 agents; intent #28 resolved ~381+min ago with no wake — the platform never delivered the trigger event

Restart SDK watcher supervisor; investigate why process death is not auto-recovering

Wake script has no price-move trigger

Momentum agent's rotation depends on detecting leadership shifts quickly; 90-min fallback alone means it can miss entire price legs between wakes

Add oracle price-change polling (>5% move on BTC or ETH) as a secondary fireWake condition in current.ts alongside the intent-resolution watch

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: 14th+ consecutive dead cycle — no change from prior summary: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, $0.15 lifetime spend (bootstrap only). Option-Writer-Matheus's ETH put (strike $1,654.55, 0.13 USDC premium, 17min TTL) expired with zero takers this cycle — ETH oracle price not present in agent snapshot so ITM status is unverifia

Agent has never woken across 14+ cycles; $0.15 bootstrap spend produced no watcher. Option-Writer-Matheus's ETH put at $1,654.55 strike (0.13 USDC, 17min TTL) expired untaken — the exact scenario this agent exists to capture. ITM status unverifiable without oracle price in snapshot, but moot: the agent cannot act regardless.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0; $0.15 bootstrap spend never produced a watcher install; option-writer-matheus has 12 lifetime deals + active options writing with 0 option-taker counterparty trades ever recorded

No reasoning has ever occurred — 0 wakes. Cannot assess quality. The bootstrap attempt ($0.15) did not complete watcher installation; the agent is structurally non-functional, not merely waiting.

MISSING: no watcher installed — wake_script_source=null

MISSING: no fallback scheduled — nextFallbackMin=null

Writes ETH/BTC options (puts/calls) near market strikes with near-expiry TTLs — exact mandate for this agent; 12 lifetime deals, actively po

Could provide swap liquidity for post-exercise settlement legs, not a direct option counterparty

ETH put at strike $1,654.55, 0.13 USDC premium, 17min TTL — written by option-writer-matheus, zero takers. Near-expiry = near-decided by time regardless of ITM/OTM direction. This is the 14th+ consecutive cycle where option-writer-matheus options expired with no taker. ITM determination requires ETH oracle price absent from this snapshot — flag as unmeasurable until oracle data is surfaced in agen

No wake script exists — wake_script_source=null; the agent was never installed operationally

No fallback timer — nextFallbackMin=null; even a bare 20min periodic waker would catch near-expiry windows

Mission requires monitoring option-writer-matheus's open positions for ITM/near-expiry triggers — zero of this logic has ever been written

Install a watcher that polls option-writer-matheus's open options and fires when any position has TTL < 30min OR estimated ITM probability > 70% vs oracle, with a 20min fallback ceiling — this would have fired on the $1,654.55 put this cycl

Bootstrap never completed watcher installation

14+ cycles, $0.15 spent, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null. The agent exists in the roster but has never run operationally. Option-writer-matheus's options expire untaken every cycle — the direct revenue the agent was created to capture.

Re-run bootstrap with an explicit watcher-install step; verify wake_script_source is non-null and watcher.armed=true before marking bootstrap complete. CLAUDE.md should specify trigger: option-writer-matheus open options with TTL < 30min or delta-adjusted ITM condition vs live oracle.

Bootstrap completion not gated on watcher.armed=true

An agent can exhaust its bootstrap budget ($0.15) without ever installing a watcher, leaving it permanently dark with no platform-level alert. This agent is the clearest example: 14+ cycles of silence with no automated recovery attempt.

Gate bootstrap success on watcher.armed=true — if a bootstrap run exits without setting the watcher, emit a health alert and queue a retry (or escalate to human review) rather than silently leaving the agent dark indefinitely.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Mission rule: 'If unfilled at expiry → cancel and reprice CHEAPER (never raise premium).' Intent 0xd5 was 4.4% premium;

ETH put option (0xe6) resolves or 90min fallback

Summary: W14 ETH call tx-timeout was fully recovered: W15 pivoted to a put (0xd5, $1677.90 strike, 4.4% premium) and W16 repriced cheaper to 0xe6 ($1654.55 strike, 2.6% premium / 0.13 USDC) per mission rule. ETH was ~$1671 at W16 posting (1% OTM put), so put is ~1% OTM relative to then — accept window is ~16 min from expiry with zero takers visible. Watcher correctly

W14 retry succeeded: agent pivoted call→put and posted 0xe6 correctly at a cheaper reprice (4.4%→2.6%). The open ETH put (strike $1,654.55, 0.13 USDC premium, collateral 5 USDC) has ~16 min left in its 60-min accept window with no counterparty able to act — option-taker-matheus (sole natural buyer) has never woken. This is the market's fault, not the agent's. 12 deals, $16.99 realized PnL all from portfolio construction phase.

All 12 settled deals are LP-Maker swaps (portfolio build phase). Option sleeve has 0 filled options across the full cycle. option-taker-matheus health=unknown, 0 wakes, 0 deals — never operational. No other agent is equipped to evaluate/take cash-settled ETH options.

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly: (1) diagnosed W14 call timeout and pivoted to put in same wake, (2) applied mission rule 'reprice cheaper, never higher' (0xd5 4.4%→0xe6 2.6%), (3) used snapshot+dry-run before posting to avoid another timeout. Reasoning is quantitative and self-consistent. Only flaw: agent chose to reprice (W16) rather than wait for 0xd5's accept window to close — minor sequ

ownIntentResolved on 0xe6 (filled / expired / cancelled)

Sole functional swap counterparty; provided all 12 deals for portfolio construction

ok — armed, 48min fallback, 12 live quot

Natural buyer for ETH puts written by this agent — mission is explicitly to buy options from other agents

dead — health=unknown, 0 wakes, 0 deals,

Could opportunistically take a near-decided option if close to expiry, but mission focus is binaries not options

dead — 347min since last wake, armed=fal

None measurable for option sleeve — no taker-capable agents are awake. For swap sleeve: LP-Maker has 12 live quotes but agent's portfolio appears balanced; no swap action needed this wake.

Correctly watches ownIntentResolved on the specific live intent (0xe6) — fires exactly when agent needs to act (option filled, expired, or cancelled)

90-min fallback is well-sized for a 1.5hr option term — gives the agent a decision point before the option itself expires

Zero-LLM watcher; can't fire on 'book non-empty'; no sub-minute polling risk

No early-expiry signal: the 60-min accept window closes ~16 min from now but the watcher won't fire until full resolution or 90-min fallback — agent misses the

Add an accept-window-close trigger: compute acceptWindowExpiry from intent post time and fire an early wake at that timestamp so the agent can cancel+reprice if still unfilled, rather than waiting for the 90-min fallback after the window ha

option-taker-matheus never launched — option sleeve has zero counterparties

0xe6 and every prior option intent go unfilled because the only mission-fit taker has health=unknown and 0 wakes across the full cycle. This is a fleet-level gap: option-writer needs option-taker to be operational for the 30% sleeve to generate any income.

Resurrect option-taker-matheus: diagnose its crash (likely same SDK watcher crash affecting 8/12 agents), fix root cause, then seed it with enough USDC to buy options. Until then, option-writer's 30% sleeve is entirely dead inventory.

Accept-window close not triggerable — agent may sit idle 74 min after window closes

0xe6 has a 60-min accept window posted 44 min ago (~16 min remaining). If unfilled at window close, the watcher won't fire for another ~74 min (90-min fallback). Agent loses a full repricing cycle.

Compute accept window expiry timestamp at watcher arm time and add a second fireWake call at that moment, labeled 'accept window closed — reprice or cancel'. Costs one extra wake per option cycle.

W16 repriced 0xd5 before its accept window closed

0xd5 (posted W15, 4.4% premium) was repriced at W16 just 18 min later — the 60-min accept window had 42 min remaining. Agent cancelled a live intent early, paying an unnecessary cancel, without giving the market a full window.

In mission logic: only cancel+reprice after the accept window expires, not on the next wake. The 'reprice cheaper' rule should be gated on window expiry, not wake cadence.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: Prior summary confirmed T-5min trigger added at W2 (20:01 Jun8) — verified present and structurally correct in current script. Agent is ARMED (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=1102), watcher will fire at EXPIRY_SEC-300 = 15:55 UTC Jun9 (~14h from now at analysis time ~01:40 UTC). Both open intents (#32 BTC<$64k, #89 ETH<$1700, same Jun9 expiry) remain unfilled

The pre-expiry T-5min trigger is verifiably present and correct: `if (!preExpireFired && nowSec >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300) fireWake(...)` fires at 15:55 UTC Jun9, ~14h from now. The watcher is armed (pidAlive=true, fallback 1102min = 20:00 UTC Jun9, i.e. +4h post-expiry). Both BinaryBets (#32, #89) remain open with 0 takers — arb-hunter-tom, the natural counterparty, has been dark 347min.

Intent #32 (BTC<$64k/Jun9, implied 0.617, 10 USDC) and #89 (ETH<$1700/Jun9, implied 0.588, 10 USDC) — both Polymarket-grounded with positive edge — remain open with 0 takers across 337min since W2. arb-hunter-tom (natural BinaryBet taker) is crashed 347min. No other active agent has a BinaryBet-taki

Sound and solving the right problem. W1 posted BTC<$64k at 0.617 (Polymarket $158k liquidity, oracle $63,457 vs $64k strike); W2 posted ETH<$1700 at 0.588 (edge=10.3%, $124k Polymarket liquidity). Pricing is grounded in external market data, not internal oracle drift. The watcher correctly monitors own-intent resolution + new takeable intents + T-5min expiry. No churn detected (0 repeat wakes). Th

ownIntentResolved(#32) — BTC<$64k Jun9 filled or expired

ownIntentResolved(#89) — ETH<$1700 Jun9 filled or expired

T-5min pre-expiry: nowSec >= 1781020800-300 (15:55 UTC Jun9) — fires once via preExpireFired flag

newMatches: new BinaryBet/Option from non-self poster appears on book

Mission: take near-decided binaries on lagged oracle — both #32 and #89 are exactly its target

CRASHED 347min, armed=false, pidAlive=fa

Swap-only maker; no BinaryBet-taking mission

Writes options, does not take BinaryBets

Mission includes taking near-decided binaries, but crashed

None detectable. The agent's secondary mission (take mispriced BinaryBet/Options) requires other agents to post them — the book shows no qualifying intents from non-self posters since W2. The watcher scan (readOpenIntents limit:50, filtering non-self BinaryBet/Option) would have fired if any appeared.

T-5min trigger is present, correct, and guarded by preExpireFired flag — fires exactly once at 15:55 UTC Jun9

Both own intents monitored individually via ownIntentResolved(#32) and ownIntentResolved(#89) — catches fill or expiry

New-takeable scan filters non-self BinaryBet/Option intents — directly serves the secondary mission

60s poll cadence — appropriate for a time-bounded expiry watcher without being abusive

Fallback at +4h post-expiry (20:00 UTC) is correct — agent needs to reassess after settlement window

preExpireFired is a runtime boolean — resets to false if process restarts within the 5min pre-expiry window, causing a duplicate fireWake (benign, but worth not

No explicit check for whether intents #32/#89 are already settled/cancelled at startup — if they expired while watcher was being written, first ownIntentResolve

Persist preExpireFired to disk (or check nowSec >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300 at watcher init before entering the loop) so a process restart within the 5min window doesn't double-fire the pre-expiry wake.

arb-hunter-tom dead 347min — BinaryBet market has zero takers

Both of polymarket-ljuba's open BinaryBets (#32, #89) are correctly priced and will expire in ~862min with no one to take them. arb-hunter-tom is the only agent with explicit BinaryBet-taking mission and has been crashed since the 13th+ cycle.

Revive arb-hunter-tom or route its restart to whoever owns it — this unblocks both polymarket-ljuba's maker activity and the broader BinaryBet market.

preExpireFired resets on process restart

If the watcher process is killed and restarted within 5 minutes of EXPIRY_SEC (15:55–16:00 UTC), preExpireFired resets to false and fireWake fires twice. The agent receives two near-simultaneous wakes for the same expiry event.

At watcher startup, check `if (Math.floor(Date.now()/1000) >= EXPIRY_SEC - 300) preExpireFired = true` before entering the loop — or write a small state file.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC is most underweight at -35pp. DCA slice = $7. Needed to register agent first (PosterNotRegistered prereq).

intent #13 fills/expires or US market opens (4h fallback)

Summary: Unchanged from prior cycle: 1 lifetime wake (17:20 UTC Jun-08), 0 deals, 0 settled, fully dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Now 498min offline vs 438min last run — ~60min elapsed with zero recovery. LP-Maker's BTC ask has re-confirmed at $63,000 (gives 0.0002 BTC → wants 12.6 USDC), crossing lior's last implied bid of ~$63,348 by ~$34

LP-Maker's active BTC quote (gives 0.0002 BTC → wants 12.6 USDC = $63,000/BTC) crosses lior's implied bid (~$63,348) by $348 right now — a directly fillable DCA opportunity. Lior has been dead 498min and cannot take it. The watcher process exited before the 4h fallback fired (only 1 registered wake total); no self-recovery path exists.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null — process died post-w1 (17:20 UTC Jun-08). 1 wake total confirms the 4h fallback never triggered w2. Intent #13 status unknown; if it expired unresolved, the ownIntentResolved trigger also never fired. Market-open setTimeout (

The single wake's reasoning was sound — BTC identified as most underweight at -35pp, $7 DCA slice calculated, intent posted correctly. But the wake-script it generated is frozen in time: hardcoded to a past market-open epoch and a single intent ID. The reasoning was correct for that moment; the watcher it produced cannot survive beyond that moment. Sound reasoning, wrong-scoped artifact — the agen

ownIntentResolved on intent #13 (hardcoded ID — brittle)

setTimeout for 17:30 UTC 2026-06-08 market open — 28h in the past, already fired or missed

armWatcher 4h fallback — never fired (process died first)

MISSING: periodic portfolio-drift check (e.g. every 4h regardless of intent state)

MISSING: live-quote crossing trigger — LP-Maker BTC ask now $63,000 vs lior's ~$63,348 target, crossing by $348

Active BTC ask at $63,000 (gives 0.0002 BTC → wants 12.6 USDC), TTL 46-54min; crosses lior's implied bid by $348 — direct DCA fill available

Equity/options focus; no swap quotes for BTC at lior's target

Taker of binary bets / mispriced swaps, not a swap liquidity provider

LP-Maker posted BTC ask at $63,000 (gives 0.0002 BTC → 12.6 USDC) with 46-54min TTL. Lior's w1 implied bid was ~$63,348, so this quote is $348 in-the-money for lior's DCA target — a directly actionable fill lior cannot take because the watcher is dead. This opportunity has been live for at least one full cycle with no agent able to capture it.

armWatcher with fallback present in design

ownIntentResolved check is on-mission (wait for fill before re-deciding)

Hardcoded past epoch (marketOpenEpochMs = Jun-08T17:30Z) — stale from birth on any subsequent run

Hardcoded MY_INTENT_ID = '13' — breaks if intent changes or expires unresolved

Process died before 4h fallback fired (only 1 wake total) — no evidence the process survived long enough; needs a heartbeat or guaranteed-alive check

No dynamic intent lookup — if intent #13 expired without fill, ownIntentResolved never triggers and no recovery path exists

No live-quote crossing check — a patient DCA agent should wake when a favorable quote appears, not just when its own intent resolves

Replace hardcoded marketOpenEpochMs and MY_INTENT_ID with (a) a dynamic lookup of own open intents from the belt (no hardcoded ID), and (b) a reliable 4h recurring fallback using Date.now() + FOUR_HOURS_MS — not a one-shot setTimeout that d

Watcher dead — no self-recovery path

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 498min offline. The watcher process exited before the 4h fallback fired; only 1 total wake confirms no w2 ever triggered. Agent needs a manual restart.

Restart the watcher process manually. The new wake-script must not hardcode a past market-open timestamp or a single intent ID.

Hardcoded past market-open epoch in wake-script

marketOpenEpochMs = new Date('2026-06-08T17:30:00Z') is 28h in the past on every future run. The setTimeout fires immediately (msToMarketOpen < 0 is skipped by the guard), so the market-open trigger is permanently dead.

Replace with a dynamic 'next US market open from now()' calculation, or remove the market-open hook and rely solely on the 4h fallback + intent-resolved trigger.

Hardcoded intent ID #13

If intent #13 expired unresolved (likely after 498min), ownIntentResolved will never return true and the only remaining trigger (the dead fallback) is gone. Agent is permanently stuck.

Dynamically query own open intents from the belt on each loop iteration; watch for any own intent resolving, not a hardcoded ID.

Watcher process death silently kills scheduled fallbacks

The 4h fallback is implemented as a Node.js timer inside the watcher process. If the process exits (crash, OOM, SIGKILL), the fallback is lost with no trace — and the agent board correctly shows armed=false/pidAlive=false but cannot distinguish 'clean exit' from 'crash before fallback'. This is the

SDK should persist fallback deadline to disk (e.g. data/wake/fallback_deadline_ms) on armWatcher, and a lightweight supervisor (or the wake-watch loop) should re-arm from disk on startup if the deadline has not passed. This makes fallbacks crash-safe.

Stacker-Massimo

Summary: Still 0 deals, 1 lifetime wake (06-08T19:52), watcher crashed 346min (armed=false, pidAlive=false) — no change since last run. Intent #78 confirmed expired (open_intents=0). Key new finding this cycle: LP-Maker's only live sNVDA sell quote at ~$210/sNVDA (12.6 USDC ÷ 0.06 sNVDA) exceeds stacker's max sweep ceiling of oracle×1.005 ≈ $208.60 (at $207.56 oracle

LP-Maker's sNVDA sell at ~$210/sNVDA is 0.67% above stacker's acceptable ceiling (oracle×1.005 ≈ $208.60), so no live counterparty exists at stacker's target price even setting aside the SDK crash. Agent remains dead 346min; intent #78 expired unfilled; watcher is stale (hardcoded intent ID 78 + past fallback timestamp of 20:30 UTC Jun 8).

LP-Maker only live sNVDA seller: 12.6 USDC / 0.06 sNVDA = $210/sNVDA vs stacker ceiling oracle×1.005 = $207.56 × 1.005 = $208.60 — $1.40 gap (0.67% over). Stacker bait bid at oracle×0.99 = $205.48, expired intent #78. No other agent posts sell-side sNVDA. Process also dead (SDK epidemic).

Sound for its mission (patient DCA, limit bid then wait) — but solving the wrong price level. The gap between stacker's bid (oracle×0.99) and LP-Maker's ask (~oracle×1.013) is ~2.2%; even stacker's sweep ceiling (oracle×1.005) doesn't bridge it. The agent is disciplined, but the target price corridor has no counterparty in the current book.

ownIntentResolved on intent 78 (STALE — intent already expired, open_intents=0)

oracle drift >0.5% from posted price $207.76

new sell-side sNVDA ≤ oracle×1.005 (would not fire on LP-Maker's $210 quote)

fallback at 20:30 UTC 2026-06-08 (STALE — 346+ minutes in the past)

MISSING: no re-initialization path when watcher restarts into stale MY_INTENT_ID=78 state

Has sNVDA sell-side inventory (12 live quotes) but current quote ~$210/sNVDA exceeds stacker's sweep ceiling oracle×1.005 ≈ $208.60 by $1.40

Trades options and stock basket swaps, not a sNVDA USDC→sNVDA spot seller

LP-Maker's sNVDA sell quote at $210 was present but above stacker's oracle×1.005 ceiling ($208.60) — watcher correctly would NOT have fired on it. No other sell-side sNVDA intents visible. Missed opportunities: none attributable to the crash alone; price gap is the binding constraint.

Checks ownIntentResolved before anything else — clean state machine for a limit-bid agent

Oracle drift check (>0.5%) correctly rearms when market moves away from posted price

isSellSideNVDA price filter (≤ oracle×1.005) prevents overpaying; correct for mission

60s poll interval reasonable for a patient DCA agent

MY_INTENT_ID='78' is hardcoded and now stale — process restart will loop on a resolved/expired intent and either fire immediately on 'resolved' or never re-post

Fallback timestamp AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 (20:30 UTC Jun 8) is 346min in the past — on restart fallbackMs will be clamped to 60_000ms and fire almost instantl

No stale-state detection: if watcher restarts after intent expires, it has no path to cancel-and-repost or verify current inventory before arming

Replace hardcoded MY_INTENT_ID='78' and AFTERHOURS_TS with dynamic state fetch at startup: read own open intents on launch, if none exist skip to 'post new bid' mode with a fresh 30min fallback — decouples the watcher from a specific intent

SDK watcher process death (epidemic)

armed=false, pidAlive=false, 346min down — same crash affecting 8/12 agents. Fallback at 20:30 UTC Jun 8 never fired because process died before it could trigger.

Fleet-level SDK fix for watcher process stability; stacker is a victim, not the cause.

Hardcoded intent ID + past fallback timestamp make restart unsafe

MY_INTENT_ID='78' is expired; AFTERHOURS_TS is 346min ago. On any restart the watcher will either fire instantly (stale fallback) or loop on a dead intent, never re-posting a fresh bid.

Boot-time open-intent scan: if no own sNVDA intent is open, enter 'post new bid' branch immediately with a fresh 30min fallback; store live intent ID dynamically rather than hardcoding.

Price corridor has no counterparty — bid ceiling too tight vs LP-Maker's ask

Stacker's sweep ceiling oracle×1.005 ≈ $208.60; LP-Maker's only sNVDA sell at $210 (+0.67%). Stacker's bait bid at oracle×0.99 ≈ $205.48 is $4.52 below LP-Maker's ask — no overlap.

Consider whether mission allows sweeping up to oracle×1.01 (~$209.64) to reach LP-Maker's quote on thin days; or accept that fills will only come when a third party posts sNVDA cheaper than oracle×1.005 — if so, document this as the expected wait condition and reduce wake frequency.

Swing-Nikita

First wake setup — need approval to trade when signals fire

Summary: Dead 9th+ consecutive cycle: last_wake_min_ago advanced 675→735 (+60min), sustaining the exact ~60min/cycle clock-drift — zero new activity. USDC approved on-chain at 06-08T13:23 (0x0d061636…) but watcher never re-armed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Stuck in post-approval limbo with zero price samples collected — no trailing-average ba

Swing-nikita's sole $0.56 wake was consumed by USDC approval; zero price samples collected in 735min means no dislocation baseline exists. When revived, lp-maker-matheus has live quotes for all swing targets (BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT, 46–54min TTL) and option-writer's contrarian engine (buying worst-2 stocks + worst crypto each cycle) is an inferential proxy for which assets are stretched — but swing-nikita must complete warmup before it can compute its own signal.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — process dead since 06-08T13:23 (735min). Matches SDK epidemic pattern shared by 8/12 agents. 0 settled deals (not-indexed). $0.56 lifetime tokens all on approval wake; warmup loop never entered.

The one completed wake was correct: approve USDC before any trading. The warmup-cadence script (pure 60-min timer to accumulate price samples) is well-reasoned for the mission — swing strategy cannot define 'dislocation' without a trailing average, so collecting samples first is necessary, not delay. The problem is structural: process died before sample 1 and has no recovery path, not a reasoning

60-min fallback timer (armWatcher, pure time-based, no market condition)

MISSING: process restart — armed=false/pidAlive=false means the fallback will never fire; warmup is permanently stalled until platform revives the process

Primary swap counterparty; 12 live quotes covering every swing-nikita target asset (BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) with 46–54min TTL

active, 24 lifetime deals, hub of the ne

Overlapping delivered-swap asset set; demand-side match possible if both active simultaneously

Also drives directional delivered swaps into movers — when swing fades and momentum chases, they trade opposite sides of the same asset

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — zero price samples collected means no trailing-average baseline exists; swing-nikita cannot evaluate any dislocation signal until warmup completes. Inferential proxy only: option-writer's contrarian buys (worst performers each cycle) suggest ongoing dispersion in sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT and ETH/BTC, but this is unverified from swing-nikita's own data.

60-min cadence correct for warmup: a trailing-average strategy needs time-series samples before any signal is valid

Zero-LLM, pure time-based — deterministic and low-cost during sample-collection phase

armWatcher with fallbackMs is the right pattern; design is architecturally sound

No recovery path if process dies mid-warmup: once armed=false the fallback never fires and warmup stalls indefinitely — 735min of dead silence with no alert

No graduation logic: script loops as a pure 60-min timer forever; there is no condition that transitions from 'collecting samples' to 'detecting dislocations an

Add a stale-process guard in the agent's startup logic: if last_wake_min_ago > 180 at boot, emit an explicit 'warmup stalled N min — SDK revival needed' alert before re-entering the 60-min wait. This surfaces the epidemic immediately on res

SDK epidemic: watcher process death with no auto-restart

8/12 agents share armed=false/pidAlive=false. Swing-nikita died after the approval wake (06-08T13:23) and has not restarted in 735min. No platform watchdog recovers funded, approved, active-mission agents.

Platform-level supervisor: if pidAlive=false and agent is funded + approved + has active mission, auto-restart the watcher process. This is the single fix that unblocks 8 agents simultaneously.

Warmup stall: 0 samples after 735min, no graduation condition

Mission needs N price samples to establish a trailing average before any dislocation trade is valid. Current script collects samples on each 60-min wake but has no counter, no threshold, and no transition to trading-mode. Even after revival, it restarts warmup from zero each time.

In CLAUDE.md / wake script: persist sample count to state; once N samples (e.g. 5) are collected, update current.ts to switch from warmup timer to dislocation-scan mode that reads the book and computes stretch vs trailing average.

Vulture-Andrew

Summary: Crashed 386min ago (up from 326min last run — 60min additional deterioration, consistent with prior trend); wake_script_source=null confirms watcher was never reinstalled this cycle, no self-wake path exists. The sole w1 basket-buy (6 swaps × 8 USDC at oracle mid via LP-Maker) produced $92.39 PnL but was portfolio construction, not mispriced-quote exploitati

Vulture-Andrew is structurally dead: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 386min since its only lifetime wake. LP-Maker's 12 live quotes are oracle-mid priced — no arb edge there. The one actionable near-decided target (Option-Writer ETH put, $1,654.55 strike, 17min expiry) is live but Vulture cannot reach it.

wake_script_source=null — watcher never reinstalled; watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false; 1 lifetime wake, 0 repeat wakes; LP-Maker's mission explicitly prices at oracle mid (confirmed by all 6 settled deals), so even if awake, primary counterparty offers no mispriced-quote arb

W1 execution was off-mission: posted a balanced basket buy across ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT × 8 USDC — rebalancer behavior, not vulture arb. Mission requires taking *clearly mispriced* quotes and *near-decided* binaries; the actual first wake built a diversified portfolio at fair prices. Sound disciplined reasoning, solving the wrong problem.

MISSING: no watcher installed (wake_script_source=null) — agent cannot self-wake under any condition

MISSING: no near-decided binary/option detector

12 live quotes, 44min fallback armed — but all priced at oracle mid by mission; no mispricing edge for Vulture. Useful only if Vulture posts

ETH put expiring ~17min (strike $1,654.55, 0.13 USDC premium) — near-decided if ETH trading well above strike; exactly Vulture's target clas

2 BinaryBets expiring 16:00 UTC today (863min remaining) — too far from expiry to be near-decided yet; potential future target.

Unresolved BinaryBet with mimic-ljuba still reads 'live' — could be near-decided if outcome strongly implied; bear-yosher itself is dark.

crashed, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 41

Option-Writer-Matheus ETH put (strike $1,654.55, 17min to expiry, 0.13 USDC premium) — if ETH is trading well above $1,654.55 this is near-decided and squarely on-mission; Vulture is dead and cannot act. Bear-Yosher BinaryBet with Mimic-Ljuba is unresolved and potentially near-decided — unmeasurable without current ETH/outcome price data.

No watcher script exists (wake_script_source=null) — cannot evaluate design; agent is permanently dark

Any future watcher must detect near-decided options/binaries, not generic book non-empty

Cadence must be patient (60min fallback) with event-driven triggers for short-TTL options

Reinstall watcher that fires on: (1) any option with <30min to expiry posted by Option-Writer-Matheus, (2) any BinaryBet with implied probability >85%, (3) 60min fallback — zero LLM, pure on-chain scan, cannot trigger on book non-empty alon

No watcher installed — permanent death without manual restart

wake_script_source=null for 386min; watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false. Agent has zero self-wake path and will never recover autonomously. Gap widens ~60min per cycle.

Reinstall watcher with near-decided option/binary event triggers + 60min fallback; no LLM in watcher

W1 first-wake logic executed as rebalancer, not vulture

Single wake posted 6 balanced basket buys at oracle mid (8 USDC each, all LP-Maker fills). $92.39 PnL reflects asset holdings, not exploited mispricing. Mission requires scanning for mispriced quotes and near-decided binaries before posting any portfolio buys.

Revise CLAUDE.md first-wake logic: scan open intents for clear mispricing and near-decided binaries first; defer or remove portfolio construction entirely — it contradicts the 'patient, near-certain edges only' mandate

wallet-address frequency (10/12 agents addressed)

SDK EPIDEMIC, HUB ALONE

Active — 12+ swaps settled this cycle; only live pair in the fleet

LP-Maker-Matheus ← Vulture-Andrew (6) · Bear-Yosher (1) · Arb-Hunter-Tom (1) · Momentum-Nikita (1)

Frozen — all 4 takers crashed (289–735min) after single-burst buys

Polymarket-Ljuba → Arb-Hunter-Tom (natural taker)

Frozen — arb-hunter-tom dark 289min; intents #32 BTC<$64k + #89 ETH<$1700 open 3

Frozen — deal reads 'live' not 'settled'; bear-yosher crashed 416min past its 4h

Dead — option-taker never bootstrapped (0 wakes, $0.15 lifetime); ETH put strike

Frozen — stacker crashed 346min; LP ask $210/sNVDA vs stacker ceiling $208.60 ($

8/12 agents offline for 289–735min; LP-Maker reduced to sole active hub with exactly 1 reliable counterparty (Option-Wri

Identical signature across 8 agents: armed=false + pidAlive=false + nextFallbackMin=null; 4h fallback deadlines missed fleet-wide; arb-hunter-tom log truncated mid-edit ('Corrected watcher fallback fr

option-taker-matheus never bootstrapped (wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes)

Option-Writer's entire options sleeve has 0 fills across its full lifetime; ETH put (strike $1,654.55, 0.13 USDC) expire

option-taker: $0.15 lifetime spend (bootstrap only), 0 deals; option-writer: 12 settled deals = 12 LP swaps + 0 options — counterparty gap is structural, not transient

arb-hunter-tom crashed 289min (SDK epidemic)

Polymarket-Ljuba's 2 BinaryBets (#32 implied 0.617, #89 implied 0.588) have 0 takers with 853min to expiry — arb-hunter-

Both intents open 337min+ unfilled; arb-hunter-tom is listed natural counterparty per Step-1 mapping; no other active agent has BinaryBet-taker tooling

bear-yosher crashed 416min, exceeding its own 4h (240min) fallback deadline

BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba frozen in 'live' state — judge function blocked, capital locked on both sides; mimic-ljuba holds

bear-yosher last_wake=416min > 240min fallback; deal status = 'live' in recent deals; mimic-ljuba w5 took 'above $65k' at BTC $63,383 = ~10–15% true fair

Mimic-Ljuba hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 flat prior

hasEdge() passed at BTC $63,383 vs $65k strike (true fair ~10–15%); agent locked in deal with bear-yosher believing it h

mimic-ljuba w5 logs: hasEdge() passed with FAIR_PROB=0.5; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge'; BTC oracle $63,383 gives ~10–15% true probability, not ~72%

LP-Maker pricing at oracle mid (correct per mission) combined with informed takers arbitraging the better leg

LP-Maker PnL -$59.67 despite 25 settled deals; token burn $16.83 in 5h = 12.2% of pool; the fleet's only hub is being sl

lp-maker summary: PnL -$59.67; $16.83 burn / 5h; identified informed takers: arb-hunter-tom (1 swap deal), momentum-nikita (1 swap deal) — both now crashed, temporarily relieving pressure

SDK watcher-daemon epidemic: 8/12 agents dead

8 agents share identical crash signature (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null) with offline durations: swing-nikita 735min, rebalancer-lior 498min, momentum-nikita 471min, bear-yosher 416min, vulture-andrew 386min, stacker-massimo 346min, arb-hunter-tom 289min, option-taker-matheus never bootstrapped. All 4h fallback timers failed to fire. Fleet conversion collapses to 10.3% with only the LP ↔ Option-Writer hub clearing.

8/12 agents: armed=false + pidAlive=false + nextFallbackMin=null; arb-hunter-tom kill implicates mid-edit watcher crash ('Corrected watcher fallback fro...' truncated log); all fallback deadlines exceeded

Diagnose SDK watcher-daemon crash path — specifically why watcher processes die during script edits and why 4h fallback timers do not re-arm on process death; implement a watchdog with <5min restart SLA. This single fix unblocks 8/12 agents.

Option-Taker never bootstrapped — options sleeve 0 fills lifetime

option-taker-matheus has 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, $0.15 lifetime spend (bootstrap only). Option-Writer-Matheus has run 16 wake cycles and written ETH options across multiple strikes/premiums — all expired with 0 fills. This market is structurally broken: the writer is active and the taker doesn't exist.

option-taker: 0 wakes, 0 deals ever; option-writer: 12 settled deals = 12 LP swaps + 0 options; ETH put strike $1,654.55 / 0.13 USDC expired this cycle with 0 takers (TTL ~8min at analysis time)

Manually bootstrap option-taker-matheus: install a wake script that monitors option-writer's open intents and evaluates ITM/OTM vs ETH oracle price before taking. Prioritize over other revives since option-writer is currently live and posting.

Polymarket-Ljuba BinaryBets expire 16:00 UTC today with 0 takers

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k/Jun9, 10 USDC) and #89 (ETH<$1700/Jun9, 10 USDC) have been open 337min+ with 0 takers. Polymarket-grounded edge (implied 0.617 and 0.588) is real but expiring. arb-hunter-tom — the only BinaryBet-capable taker — has been dark 289min. polymarket-ljuba reliableCounterparties=0.

Polymarket-ljuba: 2 open intents at 853min TTL, 0 fills; arb-hunter-tom: crashed 289min, armed=false; no other active agent has BinaryBet take-side tooling

Revive arb-hunter-tom before 16:00 UTC Jun9. If SDK fix isn't ready, manually restart the watcher process. Edge is Polymarket-grounded and time-bounded — if arb stays dark, both positions expire worthless for Polymarket-Ljuba.

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet frozen in 'live' state

Deal reads 'live' not 'settled' with bear-yosher crashed 416min past its own 4h (240min) fallback deadline. Judge function is blocked. Mimic-Ljuba holds the deep-OTM take side (BTC $63,383 vs $65k strike at deal time), so mimic-ljuba's position is likely a loss — but outcome is unresolved and capital is locked.

bear-yosher: last_wake=416min > 240min fallback, armed=false; deal status 'live' in recent deals list; mimic-ljuba w5 took 'above $65k' at BTC $63,383

Revive bear-yosher to trigger judge settlement. If revival is blocked, investigate whether the SDK exposes a manual settlement path for deals that have exceeded their expiry deadline.

Mimic-Ljuba taking OTM positions at fake +22pp edge

FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded in hasEdge() produced a false +22pp edge signal at BTC $63,383 vs $65k strike (true fair ~10–15%). Agent is live and armed (1069min fallback) — it will take another mispriced position in the next qualifying wake unless fixed.

mimic-ljuba w5: hasEdge() passed with FAIR_PROB=0.5; BTC oracle $63,383 → ~10–15% true probability for 'above $65k in 24h'; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' = flat-prior artefact; deal #3 ↔ bear-yosher taker side deep OTM

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 in mimic-ljuba's hasEdge() with an oracle-calibrated probability (e.g. log-normal at current price vs strike, or Polymarket implied probability as fair-value anchor) before next wake.

LP-Maker PnL -$59.67 with 12.2% token-pool burn in 5h

LP-Maker-Matheus is the fleet's sole functional hub but is being drained by adverse selection: oracle-mid pricing is correct per mission, but informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, bear-yosher) cross when they hold edge, leaving LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h = 12.2% of pool; at this rate pool exhaustion is ~40h out.

lp-maker: PnL -$59.67; $16.83 burn / 5h; identified informed-taker fills: arb-hunter-tom (1 swap), momentum-nikita (1 swap); adverse-selection pattern consistent across cycles

Consider adding a 5–10bps adverse-selection spread to LP-Maker quotes, or widen spreads dynamically when token-burn rate exceeds a threshold. Agent-level config change — does not require SDK work.

Fix SDK watcher-daemon crash: diagnose kill vector during script edits and 4h fallback timer failure on process death; add watchdog with <5min restart SLA — unblocks 8/12 agents with one fix

Bootstrap option-taker-matheus immediately: option-writer is live and actively writing ETH puts with 0 counterparty lifetime; install wake script to evaluate open option intents vs ETH oracle before next option posts

Revive arb-hunter-tom before 16:00 UTC Jun9: Polymarket-Ljuba's BinaryBets #32 + #89 have Polymarket-grounded edge and expire today; arb is the only BinaryBet-capable taker in the fleet

Fix Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcode before next wake: replace with oracle-calibrated probability to stop agent taking deep-OTM positions at fabricated +22pp edge

Revive bear-yosher to unfreeze the BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba 'live' deal: capital on both sides is locked and loss exposure is unquantified until the judge runs

Worse in breadth, marginally better in volume: LP-Maker-Matheus remains the sole functional hub (24 deals, 12 fresh quotes, 44min fallback) and Option-Writer-Matheus completed a full arc (12 portfolio swaps + options activity), but 8/12 agents remain crashed with armed=false/pidAlive=false — the SDK

8/12 agents dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false): arb-hunter-tom (347min), bear-yosher (414min), momentum-nikita (469min), option-taker-matheus (never woke), rebalancer-lior (496min), stacker-massimo (3

Option-Writer-Matheus has 1 ETH put expiring in 17min (strike $1,654.55, 0.13 USDC premium) with zero takers — option-taker-matheus is 13th+ dead cycle and cannot act

LP-Maker has 12 live swap quotes (46–54min TTL) covering BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT — available counterparties are effectively only Option-Writer-Matheus and the crashed Vulture-Andrew basket (alre

Polymarket-Ljuba's 2 BinaryBets expire 16:00 UTC today (863min): 10+6.21 USDC and 10+7.01 USDC — no takers visible; arb-hunter-tom (its natural counterparty) is dark

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet still reads 'live' not 'settled' — outcome unresolved with bear-yosher crashed 414min

Crashed mid-W11 with log truncated at 'Corrected watcher fallback fro...' (347min dark, no self-wake path). Step 2: confirm whether the crash was a watcher-install failure or a mid-write script corruption, and whether Polymarket-Ljuba's two

Crashed 414min, BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba still reads 'live' in settled_deals. Step 2: has the BinaryBet outcome been determined by the judge (ETH price vs strike at expiry) and if so which side won — and is the 'live' status a data lag or a

Active hub, 12 quotes fresh, 44min fallback, burn $22.93/5h. Step 2: are the 12 current quotes priced at valid oracle mid (especially sNVDA at $207.33 implied vs stacker-massimo's last bid of $207.56, and BTC quote vs rebalancer-lior's last

Armed with 1,079min fallback (very long), 455min since last wake, FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoding flagged last run. Step 2: has the hardcoded FAIR_PROB issue been addressed in the current wake script, and with Bear-Yosher's bet still 'live', what

Dead 469min (5th consecutive dead cycle), no watcher. Step 2: what specific ETH/BTC price move has occurred since Nikita's sole wake at 06-08T17:47 that would have triggered a momentum signal — i.e., which asset is the 'strongest mover' rig

13th+ dead cycle, never installed a watcher, $0.15 lifetime (bootstrap only). Step 2: Option-Writer-Matheus has an ETH put expiring in 17min at strike $1,654.55 — is this in-the-money vs current ETH oracle price (making it a near-decided mi

Active, last wake 42min ago, 50min fallback, 12 deals. Step 2: did the W14 ETH call post failure (tx timeout, noted in prior summary) get retried in a subsequent wake, and what is the current ETH price vs the open put strike ($1,654.55 with

Armed, 1,104min fallback, 2 open BinaryBets expiring 16:00 UTC today (863min left). Step 2: does the current wake script contain a working pre-expiry T-5min trigger for today's 16:00 UTC deadline (prior summary confirmed it was added at W2)

Dead 496min, LP-Maker BTC ask (~$63,150) has crossed lior's last implied bid (~$63,348) by ~$198. Step 2: is the price-crossing a current live opportunity (confirm LP-Maker's active BTC quote: 'gives 0.0002 BTC → wants 12.6 USDC' = ~$63,000

Dead 344min, 1 lifetime wake, sNVDA intent #78 expired unfilled. Step 2: LP-Maker's live quote 'gives 0.06 sNVDA → wants 12.6 USDC' implies ~$210/sNVDA — compare to stacker's target (oracle×0.99 ≈ $205.48 at $207.56 oracle): is LP-Maker's a

Dead 733min (8th+ cycle), USDC approval confirmed on-chain. Step 2: given approval is confirmed and the only blocker is the dead watcher (SDK epidemic), what specific dislocation signal exists right now — which asset is stretched most vs tr

Dead 384min, wake_script_source=null (no watcher ever reinstalled). Step 2: Vulture's 6 LP-Maker fills were all at oracle mid (portfolio construction per prior summary, not mispriced arb) — is there currently any clearly mispriced LP-Maker

The SDK watcher-install epidemic has left 8/12 agents dark with armed=false/pidAlive=false — identify the common failure mode from arb-hunter-tom's mid-W11 truncated log ('Corrected watcher fallback f

option-taker-matheus: force a cold bootstrap restart immediately — Option-Writer has an ETH put expiring in 17min (strike $1,654.55) that is the agent's exact mission target; 13 dead cycles means the

arb-hunter-tom: reinstall watcher — Polymarket-Ljuba's two BinaryBets expire 16:00 UTC today (863min); arb-hunter is the natural taker and the bets are sitting open with no counterparty.

With 8/12 agents dark, LP-Maker-Matheus is absorbing all trade flow as sole hub — funnel conversion is structurally capped at 10.3%; restoring even 2-3 takers (arb-hunter, vulture, rebalancer) would i

mimic-ljuba: the 1,104min fallback means it will not self-wake before Polymarket-Ljuba's 16:00 UTC bet expiry; verify the pre-expiry trigger in the wake script covers today's deadline specifically.