account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

bestTake=null; 0 swap edges ≥10bps; new intents require assets not held. No latency edge on any surface.

new intent >701, or bet #414 window+BTC CEX>$63817, or 30min fallback

Summary: Agent disciplined and mission-locked. Eight consecutive wakes (w64–w71, 06-09 17:00–23:32) show consistent latency-arb logic: refusing unedged swaps (none ≥10bps fundable with USDC), waiting for bet #414 take window (opens unix 1781084808, not yet active). Portfolio stable ($99.80: $91.76 USDC + 0.002461 ETH + 2 SSV). The 2 open 0xb591 swaps (15 USDC→BTC/ETH

Agent is not starved — it is correctly skipping the open 0xb591 swaps (no ≥10bps edge, slow on-chain mismatched to latency-arb mission). Solving the right problem: holding for bet #414 or new qualified intents. Portfolio intact, watcher sound.

The 2 open 0xb591 swaps are slow on-chain transfers, not latency-arb vehicles. Agent requires ≥10bps edge vs Coinbase spot to fire; no recent wakes show swaps meeting this bar. Not a market failure — a correct refusal to chase unedged moves.

Sound. Agent applies consistent ≥10bps edge threshold across 8 wakes, checks CEX feed (Coinbase spot) for bet #414 conditions, refuses moves without qualified rationale. Not re-deriving: building on the prior bet #414 focus, checking time windows, holding through low-edge periods. Solving the right problem.

Bet #414 in 30-min window AND BTC CEX >$63,817.50 (no trigger yet: window closed, BTC tracking below strike)

Settled 1 swap via Vulture; reliable taker/maker counterparty (28 deals, ok health).

Betting counterparty for primary target; agent is pure taker, needs counter-bet posted.

Undeployed (0 wakes lifetime); not available counterparties.

The 2 open 0xb591 swaps (0xb591) are likely *pre-dated* the agent's current high-water tracking (intentId >699 baseline). If qualified (≥10bps edge vs Coinbase spot at post time), the agent's 'new intent' trigger should have fired on posting — the fact it didn't suggests they predate recent activity or lack edge. Unmeasurable without swap details; no false claim of missed fill.

Bet #414 conditional: only fires when BTC CEX breaks strike *and* 30-min window open — avoids sub-strike noise

CEX feed integration (Coinbase spot, 4s timeout, graceful null-return) — mission core

New-intent high-water (>699) — catch fresh opportunities without re-checking old book

Baseline `seen` capture — avoids false-positive new-intent fires on restart

No active poll of *existing* open-intent book on a timer. Script reacts to NEW intents only. Mission lists 'fallback: snipe stale resting swaps' but watcher doe

Add a 5–10m timer in the watch loop: periodically scan open intents (via `readOpenIntents`) and check for swaps with ≥10bps edge vs current Coinbase spot. Filter to intentIds near or just below the current high-water to catch recent swaps t

Wake script doesn't actively scan stale swaps

Mission includes 'fallback: snipe stale resting swaps' but watcher only triggers on NEW intents (>699) or bet #414 conditions. Swaps posted between wakes or just below high-water threshold won't wake the agent unless a fresh intent fires. The 0xb591 swaps may fall into this gap.

Add a 5–10m timer-based scan of open intents, filtering for swaps with ≥10bps edge vs Coinbase spot. Fire wake on match. Keeps the script focused (no sub-minute polls) while closing the stale-swap blind spot.

Agent is not starved — it is correctly skipping the open 0xb591 swaps (no ≥10bps edge, slow on-chain mismatched to latency-arb mission). Solving the right problem: holding for bet #414 or new qualified intents. Portfolio intact, watcher sound.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Watcher fired immediately after arming each wake because readIntent returns ReadIntentOutput with no .intent property —

intent 414 resolution OR ETH >$1,662 OR new aligned binary ≥1.5% margin OR 4h

Summary: Correctly patient and on-mission. Bear thesis intact (BTC/ETH down net); Intent #414 anchors position at −25/−35pp floor (unfilled 100+ min). Wakes w15–w17 consistently conclude no executable action (no aligned binaries ≥1.5% margin in thin book). w18 logs core bug: readIntent returns malformed data (no .intent property). Root cause: LP offline (crashed 379m

Intent #414 unfilled 100+ min due to structural counterparty starvation (LP offline), not agent mispricing or churn. Agent correctly anchors with 24h TTL; no reposting/tightening warranted until LP returns or aligned margin ≥1.5% appears. Secondary: w18 reveals core SDK bug in readIntent breaking watcher loop.

LP-Maker-Matheus (primary binary taker) offline 379m; no other agent systematically takes bear binaries. Book thin: w15–w17 found zero aligned binaries ≥1.5% margin. Intent #414 floor fair (−25/−35pp); unexecuted due to absent counterparty, not mispricing.

Sound. w13–w17 show clear discipline: identify hard gate (takerInMoneyNow=false), execute one Engine 2 DCA slice (w14), then consistently decline to churn or chase low margins. Solving crypto-down thesis (right problem), not a reposting loop.

Intent #414 resolution (expiry epoch 1781086608 ≈ Jun 10 10:17 UTC)

ETH adverse move >+1.5% ($1,662 threshold)

Natural systematic taker for crypto-down binaries

NO — crashed 379m ago, missed 262m respa

Contrarian; has settled 1 swap; same crash pattern

NO — dark 363m (platform bug likely same

Picks mispriced swaps; could post shade binary if bear-yosher raised bid

YES but not positioned as systematic cry

None. w15–w17 scanned open binaries; found zero ≥1.5% margin. Book is thin (LP offline), not that watcher is blind to book.

Intent #414 resolution is correct top trigger (forces re-evaluation on fill or expiry)

ETH >+1.5% correctly implements stop condition (crypto climb → halt per mission)

New aligned binary ≥1.5% margin is correct takeable-opportunity filter (no chasing thin margins)

4h fallback is patient cadence; no sub-minute polling (fits strategic hold)

w18 logs core bug: readIntent returns malformed ReadIntentOutput (missing .intent field), breaking watch loop. Watcher design is sound; SDK API is broken.

No agent change. Wait for core fix: readIntent must return proper {intent, status, ...} structure. Once restored, watcher fires correctly on Intent #414 resolution, ETH moves, new binaries.

armWatcher fallback timer bug → LP offline, fleet starved

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 379m ago, missed 262m respawn fallback. Platform event-loop bug: promise dropped in wake-watch.js. Cascades: 14 agents lose primary counterparty (LP hub). bear-yosher's Intent #414 unfilled because no taker side.

Fix armWatcher timer promise handling in core/sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js. Restore LP; re-arm. Unblocks fleet.

readIntent API returns malformed data

w18 log: 'readIntent returns ReadIntentOutput with no .intent property'. Watcher fires immediately after arming, breaking loop. Affects all watchers calling readIntent.

Debug belt.tools.readIntent in SDK. Verify response structure includes .intent field. Likely regression in API response parsing or wrapper.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: Unchanged from last run: Index-Maker remains completely undeployed (0 wakes lifetime, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback scheduled). This is a platform-level initialization failure—the deployment mechanism never invoked the agent's watcher. Its only counterparty (Index-Taker, also undeployed with identical pattern) is likewise blocked. Without

Index-Maker has 0 wakes lifetime; watcher.armed=false AND pidAlive=false; no fallback (nextFallbackMin=null); no wake-script loaded. The platform's deployment/initialization mechanism did not invoke this agent. This is pure infrastructure, not an agent logic failure. Counterparty Index-Taker (0 wakes, same blocker) makes the entire index market non-functional until both are deployed.

0 wakes lifetime; watcher.armed=false AND pidAlive=false confirms process never spawned; nextFallbackMin=null (no recovery scheduled); wake_script_source=null (code never loaded). Index-Taker also undeployed (0 wakes, identical pattern). Market requires both agents to clear.

No reasoning to evaluate—agent never invoked. This is a pre-execution blocker at the platform level, not a trading logic issue.

MISSING: Platform deployment/initialization signal must invoke watcher (never sent)

Designed pair—Index-Maker posts LONG baskets, Index-Taker takes SHORT. Market requires both to function.

UNDEPLOYED (0 wakes, same blocker patter

Unmeasurable: watcher never running, cannot observe oracle or order book.

Wake-script not loaded (wake_script_source=null)

Watcher initialization never invoked (watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false)

No fallback scheduled to retry initialization (nextFallbackMin=null)

Cannot evaluate mission-fit without code

Platform must invoke Index-Maker watcher boot. (1) Verify deployment manifest includes both Index-Maker and Index-Taker. (2) Verify scheduler's init sequence actually spawns them. (3) Verify armWatcher callback completes (not silently dropp

Platform deployment mechanism failed for Index-Maker watcher

watcher.armed=false AND pidAlive=false; nextFallbackMin=null; wake_script_source=null. 0 wakes lifetime. Index-Taker has the identical pattern. This blocks the entire index market (both agents required to function).

Debug platform scheduler: (1) verify deployment manifest includes Index-Maker and Index-Taker, (2) verify boot sequence actually invokes them (check process logs), (3) verify armWatcher callback fires and completes (same event-loop bug that caused LP-Maker's 379m crash). Once deployed, monitor for c

No fallback scheduled for Index-Maker

nextFallbackMin=null. No recovery signal if initialization stalls. This mirrors the LP-Maker crash pattern.

Ensure all agent watchers are assigned a fallback by the boot sequence (e.g., 60m cadence to catch missed spawns). Verify promise completion in armWatcher timer.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: Remains undeployed since last cycle: zero wakes lifetime, wake_script_source=null, watcher offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false). Root cause is a **platform initialization blocker**—index-maker (sole counterparty required to post LONG IndexBasket intents) is also undeployed (0 wakes). Index-taker's fail-closed audit design is sound, but it cannot execute its

0 lifetime wakes; structurally blocked. Sole counterparty (index-maker) also undeployed—no LONG IndexBasket intents exist to SHORT. Fail-closed audit design is correct, but mission cannot start until index-maker posts intents. This is a core platform initialization order issue.

index-maker undeployed (0 wakes lifetime, armed=false, pidAlive=false). No LONG IndexBasket intents posted; index-taker has no counterparty to trade with. No other agent can substitute.

Cannot assess—agent never deployed and has never woken. Mission design (fail-closed audit before accepting) is sound in principle.

MISSING: No wake script deployed (wake_script_source=null); watcher never armed (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

Sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents required for index-taker's SHORT leg.

undeployed (0 wakes lifetime, armed=fals

None—index-maker has posted zero LONG IndexBasket intents (undeployed); nothing to audit or SHORT.

No wake script deployed (wake_script_source=null)

Watcher never armed (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

Deploy wake script (poll indexer for new LONG IndexBasket intents, fetch verified source, queue for audit-custom-deal, cross on ACCEPT)—but only after index-maker is deployed and actively posting intents.

Platform initialization blocker: index-maker undeployed

index-taker cannot execute any trades without index-maker posting LONG IndexBasket intents. index-maker is also undeployed (0 wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=false). This is a platform deployment order issue, not an agent fault.

Verify platform initialization sequence. Ensure index-maker deploys and watcher arms before index-taker. Investigate why index-maker initialization failed or was skipped.

Wake-script and watcher not deployed

wake_script_source=null; watcher offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false). Agent was never initialized as part of platform startup.

Deploy wake script and arm watcher for index-taker as part of platform initialization—but gate it on index-maker being live.

Single-counterparty dependency risk

Mission entirely depends on index-maker. No fallback counterparty exists. When index-maker crashed (lp-maker-matheus did same), index-taker has zero available trades.

No immediate agent-side fix (fail-closed audit design is correct). Fleet should treat index-maker as critical infrastructure; monitor its health and consider redundancy in core platform design.

0 lifetime wakes; structurally blocked. Sole counterparty (index-maker) also undeployed—no LONG IndexBasket intents exist to SHORT. Fail-closed audit design is correct, but mission cannot start until index-maker posts intents. This is a core platform initialization order issue.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Two-sided depth mission-critical: expired phantom quotes = loss of fillable book. Oracle mids stable (no volTerm). Inven

quote expiry (~45 min), oracle breach (±15–50 bps), or new fillable intent

Summary: Crashed at w44 17:19 UTC (379m ago) due to core platform event-loop bug: the 60m fallback scheduled for 18:19 UTC was never armed (nextFallbackMin=null). This is the same armWatcher timer promise-drop affecting option-writer-matheus (363m crash). Pre-crash reasoning was excellent (w38–w44): disciplined depth management, rebalancing short positions, churn-fre

LP-Maker crashed 379m ago due to a platform event-loop bug in armWatcher fallback timer handling. Wake-script reasoning was sound pre-crash; no agent fault. The 64 prior deals (with Vulture-Andrew 11×, Rebalancer-Lior 4×, Swing-Nikita 3×) confirm the agent's utility when operational. Fix scope: CORE/SDK — debug and patch the timer promise in armWatcher() that dropped for both this agent and option-writer-matheus.

Core platform: armWatcher fallback timer never fired. Scheduled 18:19 UTC, now 379m overdue (nextFallbackMin=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false). Same pattern as option-writer-matheus (363m crash, missed fallback). Consequence: LP liquidity source dead, fleet starved (6 open intents, ≤0.3pp spreads,

Pre-crash reasoning was excellent and mission-focused. W38–w44 wakes show: (1) monitoring quote expiry and rebalancing short positions (ETH, sAAPL, sMSFT, sNVDA), (2) no churn — w39/w41 actively chose hold over repost ('Churn-free hold captures flow better'), (3) w43 explicitly called out 'Two-sided depth mission-critical' and posted fresh asks, (4) w44 cancelled expired quotes and posted new ones

MISSING: None — wake-script triggers are appropriate for the LP mission

11 settled swaps; Vulture is selective and respects audited custom deals — reliable repeat taker.

4 settled swaps via DCA flow; steady, patient, mission-aligned taker for swaps.

3 settled swaps (fade dislocations, swaps via delivered); overlapping book interest.

2 settled swaps (sNVDA DCA); steady micro-flow, patience matches LP's depth model.

Portfolio rebalancing via swaps, but option-writer is also crashed (363m, same platform bug).

Unmeasurable: watcher has been dark for 379m. The 6 open intents on the book (Step 1, all near expiry) would have been in LP-Maker's sight had it been awake, but no data on which it could have filled. Cannot assess agent execution quality on recent flow — only pre-crash reasoning, which was sound.

Watches quote expiry (~45 min), oracle breach (±15–50 bps), new fillable swaps — all actionable for an LP.

Maintains `myIntentIds` list of open quotes and checks `ownIntentResolved()` — avoids ghost depth.

Tracks seen network intents and triggers only on NEW fillable matches via `newMatches()` — no phantom polling.

60m fallback is patient and sensible (no sub-minute churn).

Zero-LLM execution, runWatchLoop is appropriate for this event-driven mission.

None — script design is sound for mission. The failure is the platform's armWatcher fallback timer, not the script.

No agent-side change warranted. Fix scope: CORE/SDK — debug the event-loop promise handling in armWatcher() (file: `sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js`). The timer promise is being dropped (nextFallbackMin=null indicates it was never recorded). Chec

armWatcher fallback timer promise dropped by event loop

LP-Maker-Matheus scheduled a 60m fallback at w44 17:19 UTC (deadline 18:19 UTC) via `armWatcher({ ..., fallbackMs: 60 * 60_000 })`. The fallback never fired; 379m later, nextFallbackMin=null and armed=false. Identical pattern in option-writer-matheus (363m crash, missed fallback). This is a platform

Debug sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js: (1) Verify armWatcher() creates and persists the timer promise correctly. (2) Check event-loop task scheduling for dropped timers. (3) Confirm the pattern is consistent across both crashed agents. (4) Add logging to catch future timer promise drops. (5) Manual respaw

LP liquidity source offline, fleet starved

With LP-Maker dark, the 14 living agents have no primary liquidity hub. Step 1 notes 6 open intents with ≤0.3pp spreads and <60m expiry, but no LP to provide two-sided depth. Vulture-Andrew (11 prior deals with LP) and Rebalancer-Lior (4 deals) are the strongest counterparties, but cannot substitute

Immediate: manual respawn LP-Maker post core fix (expected: 60m fallback fires 60m after respawn). Medium-term: index-maker and index-taker remain undeployed (platform init blocker per Step 1) — resolve that to diversify liquidity sources away from single LP.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Summary: Correctly refusing sole BinaryBet #414 (−25 to −35pp taker edge, vs 3pp floor) across 8 consecutive wakes (w17–w23, ~80 min). Root cause unchanged: counterparty starvation—LP offline 319m left only one mispriced bet on the open book. Watcher armed (6min fallback) and well-reasoned for copy-trader mission (fires on new BinaryBets, 60m patience). Zero token sp

Mimic-Ljuba soundly refuses the only available BinaryBet (#414: −25 to −35pp edge, vs 3pp floor required) across 8 wakes. No deals formed because the sole counterparty is mispriced; LP-Maker offline 319m removed fair-market pricing baseline. This is market starvation, not agent failure.

Only 1 BinaryBet on open book (#414), with taker edge −25 to −35pp vs agent's 3pp minimum floor. 2 settled deals exist (vs Polymarket-Ljuba, a taker not a maker). LP-Maker-Matheus offline 319m removed fair-market pricing baseline; no secondary BinaryBet makers alive.

Sound. Agent evaluates each BinaryBet against 3pp edge floor and refuses misaligned trades. Recent wakes (w17–w23) consistently cite specific edge metrics (−25 to −35pp on #414) and note 'sole available BinaryBet' unmet floor. One-deliberate-move rule enforced. No re-derivation churn; this is patience, not confusion.

new BinaryBet posted (BINARY_BET_TEMPLATE)

bet #414 expires (~11.5h reset boundary)

60 min fallback (patient cadence, no sub-minute polling)

Primary intended counterparty—keeps market liquid by quoting near oracle, essential for copy-trader's re-pricing mission.

stuck (crashed 379m ago, 262m overdue fo

Taker of BinaryBets (values vs Polymarket). Successfully traded 2 settled deals with mimic-ljuba (the only deal counterparty on record).

operational (taker role, but doesn't pos

Taker-first on crypto bets, posts BinaryBets BELOW oracle. Could be secondary maker, but primary focus is posting convictions, not supplying

Posts sharp/baited intents near-sure win. Could post BinaryBets opportunistically, but mission is picking off mistakes, not reliable supply.

None. Only 1 BinaryBet available (#414, −25 to −35pp taker edge), correctly refused per edge floor. No other opportunities exist to miss; sole failing is the market offers no fair trades.

Fires on new BinaryBet posts (core discovery event for copy-trader)

Tracks #414 expiry as boundary condition (good state reset logic)

60 min fallback (patient cadence, suitable for portfolio trader)

Separates event detection (watcher) from edge math (LLM wake)—correct separation

No oracle-delta trigger (mission says 're-priced to live oracle'; if oracle moves >2%, should re-evaluate old bets faster)

Add optional oracle-delta trigger: if oracle mid-price moves >2% since last wake, fire re-eval wake. Detects repricing opportunities faster when markets shift, especially critical now that book is thin—if #414 or a new bet reprices favorabl

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 319m (platform armWatcher fallback timer bug)

Crashed 379m ago, missed 60m respawn fallback (262m overdue). Removed fair-market pricing baseline, leaving mimic-ljuba with sole mispriced BinaryBet (#414, −25 to −35pp edge). Step 1 identified armWatcher timer promise drop—affects ≥2 agents. Cascading starvation across 14 living agents.

Platform: restore LP-Maker-Matheus—debug armWatcher timer promise drop in core SDK; re-deploy with PID/heartbeat monitor to prevent recurrence.

Mimic-Ljuba soundly refuses the only available BinaryBet (#414: −25 to −35pp edge, vs 3pp floor required) across 8 wakes. No deals formed because the sole counterparty is mispriced; LP-Maker offline 319m removed fair-market pricing baseline. This is market starvation, not agent failure.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Edge threshold (2pp) filters noise and avoids churn into weak, unsustained moves. SSV showing mild relative strength but

BTC/ETH/SSV >3% move or US market open 13:30 UTC 2026-06-10

Summary: Wake-script is a non-functional stub (getPrices() returns empty; comment admits 'full oracle reading is complex'). Agent correctly idle w2–w8 (all gaps <1pp, threshold 3% unmet) by coincidence of price action, not by design—it *cannot* measure volatility, which is its entire mission. Settled 1 deal in w1 (BTC, Intent #28). Watcher armed with 800m fallback (U

Oracle-read logic is a stub preventing volatility measurement—the core of momentum's mission. Threshold (3%) correctly identified as over-conservative for thin post-LP-crash market (<1pp spreads observed w2–w8), but agent can't adapt because it's blind to price moves. Fix oracle decoding, then address thin-market fallback strategy.

Wake-script getPrices() returns empty; agent logs show correct identification of gaps <1pp (w5: '75% USDC already provides dry powder', w8: '0.3pp gap—far below 2pp minimum'). Agent *cannot fire* not due to bad counterparties, but because it can't analyze the price data needed to decide when to trad

Agent's logic is sound—it correctly avoids churn into weak <1pp moves and preserves dry powder. But the watcher that should *enable* that reasoning is fundamentally broken (oracle stub). The agent is not re-deriving the same move; it's *blocked from deciding any move* because it lacks price telemetry.

US market open 13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 (fallback from wake 8)

MISSING: actual BTC/ETH/SSV price reads from oracle (getPrices() is a stub)

Primary LP down 379m; no liquidity provider in market.

crashed (262m overdue from 60m fallback)

Alive (8 deals), accepts swaps on DCA schedule, but mission is steady-state allocation, not momentum-sensitive.

Takes mispriced swaps and near-decided bets; would execute if Nikita posts a momentum-driven swap at a good rate.

Unmeasurable: watcher is blind to oracle. BTC fell from $62,620 (w2) to $61,714 (wake-8 baseline, 1.4% drop over 8h); ETH fell from $1,664 to $1,641 (1.4% drop). Relative strength may have existed in subsets (e.g., SSV vs BTC), but agent can't compute without working price feed. Fallback-only strategy hides signal.

Has a concrete fallback (US market open) preventing infinite stall

Threshold (3%) in principle guards against noise churn

Agent logs show correct self-awareness of thin-market conditions (w5, w6, w8 all note gap <1pp)

getPrices() function is a non-functional stub returning empty object; comment: 'Since full oracle reading is complex, just use the fallback'—but fallback alone

No oracle integration; agent is blind to price moves and cannot measure momentum (its core mission)

Threshold (3%) is over-conservative for post-LP-crash market (spreads <1pp observed); should adapt to thin-book conditions, but can't without price data

Implement actual oracle decoding in getPrices()—currently a stub. Must read BTC/ETH/SSV prices from on-chain oracle (Uniswap TWAP, Chainlink, or Pyth snapshot) to compute relative strength and volatility. Without this, fallback is the only

Oracle-read logic non-functional (stub)

getPrices() returns empty object with comment 'full oracle reading is complex, just use the fallback.' Agent cannot measure volatility—the core of momentum's mission. Logs across w2–w8 show agent correctly avoiding trades <1pp, but only because threshold is static 3%; agent has no *reason* to know w

Replace stub with real oracle decoder. Read BTC/ETH/SSV prices from on-chain source (e.g., Uniswap TWAP or Chainlink), compute relative strength (e.g., BTC YoY momentum vs ETH), and use that to fire on local leadership shifts, not just market open.

Threshold over-conservative for thin market post-LP-crash

3% (0.03) threshold is appropriate for a liquid market, but residual post-LP spreads are <1pp (observed w2–w8: 0.3pp typical). Agent correctly avoids churn but also can't capitalize on real relative-strength moves that exist below 3% on assets like SSV or ETH. Adaptive fallback missing.

Implement thin-market fallback: if no wake fires for N hours and observed spreads remain <1pp, lower threshold to 1–1.5%, or fire on *relative* strength (e.g., 'BTC up 0.5pp while ETH down 0.3pp' even if absolute move is small) to catch rotations in thin conditions.

LP-Maker-Matheus down (platform event-loop bug); momentum has no primary counterparty

LP offline 379m; missed 60m fallback 262m overdue (armWatcher timer promise drop, flagged in Step 1). Momentum's ideal counterparty (market maker) is gone. Rebalancer-Lior (8 deals, alive) doesn't seek momentum trades; Vulture-Andrew (28 deals, alive) takes mispriced but isn't seeking momentum-drive

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus (core platform: fix event-loop armWatcher timer promise bug). Without that, consider adding a secondary market-maker or improving Momentum's fallback mission (e.g., 'if no momentum signal, provide value via rebalancing with Lior or posting pre-hedged swaps to Vulture').

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

a new Option intent with my audited template appears (or 2h)

Summary: Still waiting in an empty market: all 10 wakes report zero audited Option intents. Watcher is well-reasoned (fires on new options OR 2h fallback, next in ~113m), and the agent correctly hasn't acted. Problem unchanged: sole counterparty option-writer-matheus remains offline (crashed 363m ago, per Step 1), blocking supply. Agent is healthy; market is starved.

option-taker-matheus is correctly idle: watcher is sound (fires on real signals + 2h fallback), but scanned an empty book in all 10 wakes over 5h+. Sole counterparty option-writer-matheus offline (crashed 363m ago per Step 1 armWatcher bug). No agent issue; fix is platform-scoped (restart writer or fix core timer bug).

option-writer-matheus crashed 363m ago per Step 1, causing 0 audited Option intents in book. Taker scanned w3–w10 all report empty; no counterparty = no supply to take.

Sound. Watcher is well-reasoned for mission: wakes on new audited options (the exact signal it acts on), 2h fallback is patient (no sub-minute polling). No churn, no false fires. Agent solving the right problem (finding good deals) but market has no supply — structural, not the agent's reasoning.

new audited Option intent appears (template hash check)

Sole source of audited options for this mission.

OFFLINE (crashed 363m ago, missed fallba

none: watcher is blind until options appear; book is genuinely empty (10 wakes confirm)

Fires on new audited options with template-hash defensive check

2h fallback is patient for a thin market

Baseline handling correct (first wake records seen, doesn't fire)

newMatches filter prevents repeat/false fires

None for agent. Script is sound. Fix is core: restart option-writer-matheus or debug armWatcher timer promise-drop (Step 1 bug affecting ≥2 agents).

armWatcher timer promise dropped — option market stalled

option-writer-matheus Engine 1 crashed 363m ago and missed its fallback (262m overdue per Step 1). This is the sole supply source for audited options. Same pattern likely affects other agents with scheduled fallbacks.

Debug armWatcher promise-chain in SDK (likely unhandled rejection or GC issue). Restart option-writer-matheus Engine 1 after fix.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Rotation execution is in flight. Intent 528 filled as expected (sMSFT exit complete). Intents 530/533 expiring soon (~12

Market close signal (19:50 UTC) or hard fallback (23:00 UTC)

Summary: Engine 1 (options writing) correctly paused w21 after 6 consecutive rejections (sound market signal, not mispricing). Engine 2 (rotation) executed w23–24: sAAPL+sMSFT→sNVDA rebalance, intent 528 (sMSFT exit) filled by LP-Maker, intents 530/533 (sNVDA/sAAPL buys) expired w25 after LP went offline—not agent error. W26: Scheduled market-close finalization (19:5

Option-writer-matheus executed sound reasoning: paused options after legitimate 6-rejection signal, rotated into worst-2 stocks at oracle mid, let rotation settle. W26 market-close script was well-designed (fire at 19:50 UTC, fallback 23:00 UTC) but crashed before execution due to armWatcher timer promise drop—same platform bug that disabled LP-Maker-Matheus w44 (379m ago). Agent is now 365m dark waiting for platform fix.

W26→27 watcher crash: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Same signature as LP-Maker-Matheus (Step 1: platform event-loop bug in armWatcher fallback timer, promise dropped). Target fires (19:50 UTC market close, 23:00 UTC fallback) never executed. Intent 528 filled successfully (sMSFT

Sound. Engine 1 pause (6 rejections across ATM/OTM/cheap/dear/short/long term) is correctly diagnosed as market signal, not pricing failure. Engine 2 rotation logic is disciplined: worst-2 stocks by recent-day return (sAAPL −1.97%, sMSFT −1.29% → sNVDA −1.87% post-rerank), swaps posted at oracle mid to attract LP fills, holdings checked for drift. W25 self-awareness: 'Rotation swaps failed to fill

19:50 UTC (market close) — finalize rankings & execute rotation

23:00 UTC hard fallback if market-close signal blocks

MISSING: Book monitoring removed by design (agent doesn't need it, all intents pre-posted) ✓ correct for mission

Filled intent 528 (sMSFT exit) at oracle mid w24; primary taker for rotation swaps

CRASHED (379m ago, same platform bug, ne

Takes directional swaps (BTC/ETH down), could fill sNVDA/sAAPL buys if mission aligned

Takes mispriced swaps; rotation swaps posted at oracle mid (fair, not bait) so low priority

None quantifiable. Agent had 0 open intents at w26 (rotation intents all expired w25); watcher blind to book. Real miss: LP-Maker offline during rotation window (w23–25), forcing intents 530/533 to expire unexecuted—platform structural issue, not agent miss.

Time-based trigger (19:50 UTC market close) is correct inflection point for daily contrarian rebalance—no need for real-time book updates

Hard fallback (23:00 UTC) provides safety net if something blocks the primary signal

No book monitoring—agent correctly removes it; mission is portfolio rotation, not reactive order-following

Cadence (daily, once per close) matches mission (hold worst-2, rotate as leadership shifts)

No book monitoring—correct omission for this mission, no issue

No agent-level change needed. Once platform armWatcher bug is fixed (promise drop in fallback timer), script will execute as designed. Core fix is the load-bearing lever.

armWatcher fallback timer promise drop (Event-loop bug)

W26→27 watcher set fallbackMs=~7210s (23:00 UTC) and targetWakeUtc=19:50 UTC but process crashed before either fired. Watcher state: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Same signature as LP-Maker-Matheus (w44, 379m ago). Platform event-loop timer promise not properly awaited, causing

Debug armWatcher.js in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js. Confirm: (1) fallbackMs timeout is correctly registered with event-loop, (2) promise is awaited/chained so process doesn't exit prematurely, (3) test with 2+ agents scheduled for >5m fallbacks. Affects ≥2 agents in fleet; fix is critical path.

LP-Maker offline during rotation window (fleet dependency)

Intents 530/533 (sNVDA/sAAPL buys) expired w25 after 50m because LP-Maker went offline w23. Option-writer correctly identified market depth issue (not pricing), but had no peer fallback. Fleet has 14 other agents but no secondary liquidity provider for index-pair swaps.

Once LP-Maker is restored, verify counterparty availability before posting multi-intent rotations. Medium-term: deploy Index-Maker/Index-Taker (currently at 0 wakes, platform init blocker) to provide peer discovery for correlated pairs.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL well-positioned mid-hold. Edge erosion is expected as terminal approaches; pos

sAAPL stop/forward/horizon, or new book opportunity

Summary: Agent posted 2 sAAPL directional swaps (intents #583/#601, 4.18%/5.17% edges) targeting LP-Maker w7–w8. Both expired unfilled when LP went offline 379m ago. Now in correct monitor-and-wait: sAAPL position at 25% cap (well-sized), watcher firing on horizon (Jun10 16:00 UTC), price stops (277.34/303.75), and new book opportunities. No new Polymarket misprices

Agent is operationally sound and correctly monitoring. It posted 2 intents (now expired) targeting the offline LP-Maker; with the book collapsed (6 thin intents, ≤0.3pp spreads), there are no Polymarket misprices to hunt. This is counterparty starvation (fleet/core issue), not agent fault. Confidence: high — wake-script is well-reasoned for mission, sizing discipline maintained, no wasteful re-posting.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 379m; intents #583/#601 expired unfilled; current book: 6 intents, ≤0.3pp spreads (<<3% edge threshold). Agent correctly ignores thin book.

Sound. The agent's mission is to find mispriced Polymarket bets and buy them. With LP offline and the book collapsed (spreads ≤0.3pp, well below the 3% entry threshold), there are no misprices to find. The agent is not re-deriving the same move; it's correctly *waiting*. Wakes w9–w14 all conclude 'no mispriced opportunities' — this is correct reasoning given the book state, not churn.

sAAPL price hits stop (277.34) or forward (303.75)

Horizon: Jun10 16:00 UTC expiry approaching (≤5 min)

New book opportunity: takeableCount > 0 OR best swap edge ≥3%

Fallback: Jun10 18:00 UTC (2h after horizon)

Primary LP; filled 2 swaps w7–w8 before going offline 379m ago.

Took BinaryBet from polymarket-ljuba, settled deal.

Hunts mispriced bets; could take sharp Polymarket plays if agent posts.

Buys cheap in-the-money options; no overlap with Polymarket bets currently.

None detectable. Agent reads book.json every 30s for takeableCount and swap edges ≥3%. Current book shows 6 intents with ≤0.3pp spreads — correctly ignored as below threshold. If book.json is accurate (30s poll), agent sees all Polymarket opportunities available. Risk: if book.json is stale or incomplete, agent is blind — but that is a watcher/core limitation, not an agent miss.

Monitors sAAPL stop (277.34) and forward (303.75) — exit discipline for directional bet

Checks horizon (Jun10 16:00 UTC); fallback 18h later ensures position liquidation

Polls book.json every 30s for takeableCount and swap edges ≥3% — low-frequency hunt for Polymarket misprices, fits patient mission

armWatcher + runWatchLoop = zero-LLM, no sub-minute noise, reasonable 30s cadence

book.json read may fail silently (try/catch, continue) — if book.json is missing/stale for extended time, agent goes blind to opportunities. Consider fallback c

Add last-modified check to book.json read: if book.json is stale (e.g., >5 min old), fire wake with 'book.json stale' message. This surfaces watcher blind spots to the agent and helps distinguish 'no opportunities' from 'cannot see opportun

LP-Maker offline 379m blocks polymarket-ljuba and fleet liquidity

armWatcher timer promise dropped (platform event-loop bug). LP-Maker crashed with missed 60m fallback; now 262m overdue. Starved 14+ agents waiting on LP quotes or liquidity.

Debug and fix armWatcher fallback timer in SDK (wake-watch.js). Ensure fallback.setTimeout() promise is not dropped on uncaught error or event-loop stall. (Priority: critical; this is the causal link for fleet starvation.)

Book collapse: 6 thin intents, ≤0.3pp spreads, near expiry. No Polymarket misprices available for any agent to take.

With LP offline, the market has no deep quotes. Remaining intents are post-and-wait from other agents, too tight to trade. Polymarket-ljuba cannot fulfill its mission (hunt mispriced Polymarket bets) with no bets to find.

Restore LP-Maker (fix armWatcher). Alternatively, enable agent-to-agent discovery (e.g., direct orderbook broadcast or gossip) so agents can hunt peer quotes without relying on centralized LP. (Medium-term: consider peer discovery as hedge to LP starvation.)

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: rebalancer-lior is executing its DCA mission correctly: disciplined watcher polling for market reopen (13:30 UTC, 830m fallback), quantified underweight gaps (-15pp sAAPL, -35pp sNVDA), posted intents #669/#670 at 19:55 UTC respecting market-hours constraint. The agent will execute when stocks market opens. Bottleneck: 75% of settled deals (6 of 8) were with

Agent will execute on schedule: when stocks market opens at 13:30 UTC, its watcher will fire and post new DCA slices. However, intents will likely remain unfilled—6 of 8 prior deals were with now-offline LP-Maker-Matheus, and no reliable peer DCA partners exist in the fleet. Fix is core/fleet (LP recovery or peer-matching), not agent.

Settled deals: 6 with LP-Maker-Matheus (offline 379m, missed 60m respawn fallback), 2 with 0xBd6a…9863 (unknown peer, likely inactive). No other DCA-capable agents in roster. When #669/#670 expire or fill at market reopen, new orders will face same liquidity desert unless LP recovers.

Sound and on-mission. Quantifies portfolio gaps, respects market-hours constraint (stocks 13:30–20:00 UTC only), took favorable intent #631 at w18, progressed from #500 → #669/#670 corrections. Not re-deriving or churning—advancing deliberately toward target mix. Bottleneck is external (counterparty availability after LP crash), not reasoning.

Stocks market reopen 13:30 UTC (830m fallback pending)

Intent #669 or #670 resolve (fill/expire), polled every 30s

Deep liquidity, 6 of 8 settled deals (75%)

OFFLINE (crashed 379m ago, missed 60m re

unknown (no visibility, likely inactive)

sNVDA overlap with rebalancer's sNVDA target leg

alive (health ok, 2 deals), but not a de

None in wake data. Took intent #631 (favorable). Posted #669/#670 at fair rates. Main constraint is lack of available counterparty liquidity when market reopens, not agent optionality.

Wakes on a market event the agent would act on (stocks reopen 13:30 UTC, tied to its DCA mission)

Cadence is disciplined: 117m avg gap, respects market hours, no sub-minute polling

Has a reliable fallback (830m to market reopen) that fires deterministically

Zero-LLM, no 'book non-empty' fragility—polls specific intents it posted

No adaptive logic if LP remains dark after market opens (e.g., smaller slices to attract peer volume, or fallback to off-hours BTC/ETH DCA). Not urgent, but wor

Once #669/#670 resolve at market open, if LP is still offline, consider posting smaller sAAPL/sNVDA slices to attract peer matches, or shift weight to BTC/ETH (off-hours, less LP-dependent). Defer until LP recovery attempt clarified, but sc

armWatcher fallback timer promise dropped (platform event-loop bug)

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 379m ago with missed 60m respawn fallback. Same pattern in option-writer-matheus (363m dark). Causes cascading counterparty starvation across fleet (Step 1).

Repair armWatcher fallback timer promise handling in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js. Ensure deadline callback executes reliably even under load.

No peer-discovery or matching for patient DCA orders

When LP is offline, DCA agents (rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita) cannot find each other. Fair intents remain unfilled despite market demand. This is a design gap, not agent failure.

Build peer-matching system (e.g., heartbeat registry, intent brokerage) or multi-maker LP redundancy so DCA agents can fill orders during LP unavailability.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Afterhours routine: post directional binary bet on sNVDA UP consistent with accumulation thesis. Bet expires ~10:08 AM E

Summary: LP-Maker offline 379m (worsened from prior 319m, now 262m overdue on respawn). Agent's shift to daily market-open handoff (w18, fires 2026-06-10T13:30 UTC) executed as planned. Tried continuous DCA w11-w16, then rationally paused when LP went dark. All 2 deals from LP-Maker-Matheus; no alternative counterparties. Mission blocked by counterparty starvation (c

DCA is temporarily blocked by LP-Maker offline (379m, 262m overdue on respawn fallback). Agent rationally paused continuous ~8m cadence and shifted to daily market-open handoff—sound adaptation to structural constraint. All 2 settled deals came from LP-Maker-Matheus; no alternative DCA-capable counterparties exist. Once LP recovers, resume normal cadence.

All 2 settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (only agent with DCA-scale liquidity); LP offline 379m. Index-Maker undeployed (platform blocker). Current book: 6 intents, none matching buy-sNVDA-at-oracle×0.99 profile.

Sound and on-mission. Agent executed continuous DCA (w11-w16, ~8m refresh cadence) while LP quoting was available, detected LP drought, paused DCA intelligently, shifted to patient daily market-open handoff (13:30 UTC fire), posted exploratory binary bet (Intent 686, consistent with accumulation thesis). Adaptive, not churn.

09:30 AM ET (13:30 UTC) next market open — time-based daily handoff

MISSING: detect LP-Maker recovery via intent timestamp check (optional optimization; would fire immediately if LP posts fresh swap, reducing latency from 24h to

Only counterparty with DCA-scale liquidity at oracle-competitive rates

OFFLINE 379m, 262m overdue on respawn fa

If deployed, could provide DCA-like flow via IndexBasket swaps

Undeployed (platform blocker, 0 wakes li

None. Current book has 6 open intents, mostly small (<15 USDC) and near expiry (<60m); none match buy-sNVDA-at-oracle×0.99 profile. No sweepable supply.

Zero-RPC, no book polling—low cost, appropriate for patient agent

Fires at market open (13:30 UTC / 9:30 AM ET) when LP most likely online

No early-wake trigger if LP-Maker posts fresh swap intent (would reduce DCA restart latency from 24h to ~min)

Optional: add polling logic to detect LP-Maker recovery. Fetch LP-Maker's last intent timestamp each poll cycle; if post-dates watcher start, fireWake() immediately. Reduces latency from 24h to minutes when LP recovers.

LP-Maker offline, blocking DCA liquidity

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 379m ago with missed 60m respawn fallback (262m overdue). Root: armWatcher timer promise dropped in platform event loop. Affects stacker-massimo (2 settled deals, now 0 active) and option-writer-matheus (similar pattern).

Debug and fix armWatcher timer; ensure fallback fires reliably on all armed watchers.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

sNVDA sell-strength blocked by both market hours and zero position. No other actionable dislocations. Watcher aimed at 1

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (sNVDA +2.56% signal check)

Summary: Sound fade discipline, switched from event-driven watcher (new intents) to time-driven (market open 13:30 UTC June 10) to avoid false triggers on thin book. All 3 settled deals via dead LP-Maker-Matheus. Current mission: reassess sNVDA +2.56% sell signal (real, >1.5% threshold) at market open. Structurally blocked: zero sNVDA position + markets closed. Corre

Disciplined fade agent correctly pivoted watcher timing (event→time-driven) to match signal refresh (market open). sNVDA +2.56% is real opportunity but structurally blocked (zero position, market hours). Book thin; correct to wait rather than churn. Deal drought root cause is LP-Maker-Matheus death (379m dark, missed fallback), not agent error.

All 3 settled deals (61, 62 from w8-w9) from LP-Maker-Matheus; dark 379m. w11 SSV fade (0x289) posted -1.89% real dislocation, 23 USDC, expired unfilled w13—thin-book structural issue, not agent error.

Sound. Correctly identifies sNVDA +2.56% as real signal (>1.5%). Recognizes dual blocks: (1) market hours until 13:30 UTC tomorrow, (2) zero position can't sell without acquiring first. Chooses patience + time-based watcher (market open trigger) over event-driven false positives on thin book. Invokes 'no tiny unfillable reposts' playbook (w13) after SSV expiry. Reasoning solves the right problem:

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (real-time equity re-check)

Only counterparty (3/3 deals); dark 379m, no restoration path in-run

DCA equities; but 1 swap/wake, low hit rate for swing fades

Crypto+equity taker; overlaps on equity dislocations

sNVDA +2.56% is real and actionable, but structurally blocked: (1) zero position—needs acquisition first, (2) market hours—sell can't execute until 13:30 UTC. Residual book has no sNVDA seller at swing's price; acquisition path does not exist. Book thin on other fades (all <1.5%); correct to wait rather than churn-post. No measurable missed fades.

Pivoted event-driven (new intents) → time-driven (market open)—disciplined match of signal timing to trigger

Market open 13:30 UTC is exact moment equity re-pricing happens

15h fallback provides safety for platform time failures

Zero-LLM time-check only—no reasoning churn

Potential SDK ambiguity: condition `Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS` stays true after market open. If runWatchLoop doesn't stop after first fire, swing-nikita coul

Confirm runWatchLoop stops after first fire, or wrap fireWake in a one-time flag to prevent repeated fires after market open becomes true.

runWatchLoop may re-fire after market open time

Time-check stays true after 13:30 UTC. If loop doesn't stop, fireWake fires repeatedly (~per iteration). Currently masked (market open hasn't arrived yet, we're at June 9T23:31), but will surface at market open tomorrow.

Confirm SDK: does runWatchLoop stop after callback returns, or does it need a one-time flag inside fireWake?

LP-Maker-Matheus loss cascades—all takers now maker-starved

swing-nikita's only reliable counterparty (LP-Maker, 3/3 deals) dark 379m, missed fallback (platform event-loop bug per Step-1). Core root cause of deal drought, not agent error.

Restore LP-Maker or deploy backup maker (core/platform). swing-nikita's fade discipline is sound; issue is fleet liquidity starvation.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

Rebalance is portfolio hygiene (mandatory floor restoration). Once fills arrive, will post sharp two-sided baits on rest

6 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781048904; next poll 60s

Summary: Vulture correctly pivoted to mandatory portfolio rebalancing after LP-Maker-Matheus (counterparty on 22 of 28 deals = 79%) went offline 379m ago. It posts rebalance intents at oracle-fair (no-edge policy) for sAAPL/sNVDA, both below the 8% portfolio floor. However, with LP confirmed dead (missed 60m respawn, 262m overdue), the oracle-fair strategy will not p

Vulture's 2 live rebalance intents (0x02ba/0x02bb, ~$12.31 USDC at oracle-fair) will not fill because LP is offline. Step 1 focus: are they optimal? Answer: no longer. With LP dead, it should post tighter bids (wider spread) to attract arb-hunter-tom or accept portfolio imbalance until structural fix (LP recovery or new counterparty).

LP-Maker-Matheus was 79% of prior deal flow (22/28 settled swaps). Now offline 379m with missed 60m fallback (262m overdue). No other agent has deep inventory to fill $12+ rebalance orders at oracle-fair; arb-hunter-tom (2 deals) and rebalancer-lior (8 deals) have limited liquidity. Intents 0x02ba/0

Sound and disciplined. Vulture correctly: (1) identifies portfolio floor breach (sAAPL/sNVDA <8%), (2) prioritizes rebalance before edge-hunting (mission-ordered), (3) posts at oracle-fair (no-edge policy avoids mispricing). No thrashing—respects min-interval, adapts cadence, waits patiently. However, strategy is contingent on LP recovery within ~24h. With LP confirmed dead by Step 1 (missed 60m f

Takeable edge appears on book (global rule, scans all instruments)

Intent near expiry (re-judges 300s before expiry, prevents stale judgments)

2h fallback (forces re-orient even if book is silent, catches structural changes like LP death)

Primary LP, 79% of prior deals. Offline 379m, missed 60m fallback. No fills expected until recovery (low probability given missed respawn).

dead (crashed, 262m overdue on fallback)

Latency arb taker; would take rebalance if posted tighter (wider bid/ask). Only 2 prior deals—limited depth, but responsive to real edges.

Also does DCA rebalancing via delivered swaps (8 deals); could cross with vulture's orders but missions are independent, no coordination.

Crypto/binary specialist (BTC/ETH/binaries); no stock swap overlap.

None in the edge-hunting sense (book is collapsed, ≤0.3% spreads all at oracle). Vulture correctly avoids forced-edge trades. The structural missed opportunity: LP is dead, so the oracle-fair rebalance intents will not fill. Pivoting to tighter bids (oracle+0.5pp) would force fills from arb-hunter-tom or market-takers, but costs PnL. Current strategy (wait at oracle-fair) is bet on LP recovery; wi

Zero-token deterministic loop—no LLM waste between wakes, essential for a patient edge-hunter

Global rule: any takeable edge wakes immediately (reactive)

Adaptive polling: fast when book is busy (new intents), backs off to 30m when quiet (respects patience)

Re-judges intents within 300s of expiry (catches near-decided deals, doesn't miss deadlines)

2h fallback forces re-orient even if book silent (catches structural changes like LP death)

Detached spawn of launch-wake.sh is lightweight, no lingering overhead

No deterministic gate for 'LP offline >6h AND rebalance intents unfilled >4h'—should flag strategy pivot needed

Add check in scan-edges.ts: if LP-Maker is offline >6h AND any rebalance intents have been live >4h without fills, emit 'rebalance_stalled' flag. Next wake decision (Claude): tighter bids (oracle+0.5pp) to force fills, or accept imbalance l

Rebalance strategy no longer optimal with LP dead

Current intents 0x02ba (7.8 USDC→sAAPL) and 0x02bb (4.52 USDC→sNVDA) posted at oracle+0% since w30 (23:29, 4h+). Oracle-fair pricing was optimal IF LP returned within ~24h. With LP confirmed dead (missed 60m fallback, 262m overdue), no fills will arrive. Portfolio remains $12.32 committed to pending

Detect LP offline >6h via deterministic check. If true, next wake decision: post tighter bids (oracle+0.5pp, wider spread) to attract arb-hunter-tom or other edge-takers and force fills, or accept imbalance and pivot to edge-hunting if book improves. Decision is Claude-driven (one wake call); execut

armWatcher fallback timer failure (platform event-loop bug, see Step 1)

LP-Maker-Matheus (vulture's primary counterparty) crashed 379m ago with a missed 60m respawn fallback (262m overdue). Step 1 identified this as a promise-drop in sdk/core/watcher's armWatcher timer—the fallback callback was not awaited, so the timer was never registered. Vulture's own watcher is ali

Fix armWatcher fallback promise-chain in sdk/core/watcher.ts: ensure the timer is registered with a guarantee (no await drop) and test with >2h quiet scenario. Prevents repeat of LP-Maker missing its fallback and taking down 79% of vulture's deal flow.

wallet-address frequency (11/14 agents addressed)

LP HUB DEAD, FLEET STARVED — PLATFORM BUG BLOCKING RECOVERY

majority (16/74 visible in recent deals)

2 settled (Mimic-Ljuba ↔ Polymarket-Ljuba), 2 open (Bear-Yosher, Stacker-Massimo stalled)

0 (writer crashed 363m, taker waiting on empty book, 0 intents)

0 (both agents undeployed, 0 wakes lifetime)

LP-Maker-Matheus (dead) ⇄ Vulture-Andrew (79% of deals: 22/28), Rebalancer-Lior (8 deals), Arb-Hunter-Tom, Unknown peers (0xBd6a…9863)

COLLAPSED — Hub offline 379m, 262m past recovery fallback. No replacement depth;

Mimic-Ljuba ⇄ Polymarket-Ljuba (2 settled), Bear-Yosher ↔ (none, 0 deals, waiting on book edge)

FROZEN — 1 intent on book (#414, mispriced −25/−35pp vs 1.5% floor). LP offline

Option-Taker-Matheus ⇄ Option-Writer-Matheus (dead)

SEALED — Writer offline 363m (same platform bug: missed 60m respawn, 246m overdu

Index-Maker (undeployed) ⇄ Index-Taker (undeployed)

UNINITIALIZED — Platform initialization blocker: both agents 0 wakes lifetime, w

Core platform bug: armWatcher fallback timer promise dropped in event-loop scheduler

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed w44 17:19 UTC (379m ago) with scheduled 60m respawn fallback never fired. Option-Writer-Matheus

LP-Maker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null (fallback was 18:19 UTC). Option-Writer: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null (target 19:50 UTC market close, 23:00 UTC fallbac

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 379m (consequence of platform timer bug) — the fleet's sole liquidity hub

4 agents now have zero reliable counterparties; 6 open intents (<15 USDC, expiring); 74 settled deals insufficient to bo

Vulture-Andrew: 22/28 settled deals (79%) with LP-Maker, now offline. Rebalancer-Lior: 8/8 with LP. Stacker-Massimo: 2/2 with LP. Swing-Nikita: 3/3 with LP. Recent intents: Rebalancer #669/#670 (marke

Index-Maker completely undeployed (platform initialization failure: 0 wakes lifetime, watcher.armed=false AND pidAlive=f

Index-Taker cannot execute its audit mission because no LONG IndexBasket intents exist to audit. Index market is structu

Index-Maker: nextFallbackMin=null, process never spawned. Index-Taker: identical pattern, 0 wakes, cannot post intents against empty book. No other agent can post IndexBasket intents; these are Index-

Momentum-Nikita wake-script non-functional: getPrices() returns empty array (stub with comment 'full oracle reading is c

Agent cannot measure volatility needed for core mission (requires ≥3% gap trigger). Idle 5h+ by luck, not design — if a

Wake-script reads empty getPrices(); agent logs correctly identify gaps: w5 '75% USDC dry powder', w8 '0.3pp gap—far below 2pp minimum'. Agent can identify but cannot trigger because oracle stub block

Vulture-Andrew watcher process died (pidAlive=false) but recovery armed (armed=true) with 114m fallback remaining

Watcher may fail to reschedule before expiry, leaving 2 open rebalance intents unfilled (0xb591 sAAPL 7.8 USDC 46m left,

pidAlive=false + armed=true suggests process exited but rescheduling still pending. If armWatcher timer bug affects this fallback (same signature as LP/Option-Writer), Vulture will join the stuck agen

Platform event-loop bug: armWatcher fallback timer promise dropped

LP-Maker-Matheus (crashed w44 17:19 UTC, 379m ago) and Option-Writer-Matheus (crashed w26, 363m ago) both have scheduled fallbacks that never fired (scheduled 18:19 and 23:00 UTC respectively, now 262m+ and 246m+ overdue). This is a time-bomb: any agent with an armed fallback on the same scheduler queue will fail identically. The recovery mechanism itself is broken, so recovery cannot self-heal.

LP-Maker: nextFallbackMin=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false at scheduled 18:19 UTC fallback. Option-Writer: identical signature at 23:00 UTC fallback. Both watcher logs show scheduled callback never invoked; event-loop did not tick the time

Urgent: Audit armWatcher timer implementation for promise-drop or event-loop queue failure. Likely cause: fallback callback not registered or event-loop scheduler overloaded/wedged. Restore LP-Maker and Option-Writer from disk state; manually invoke recovery if fallback remains s

Index market sealed: platform initialization blocker prevents both agents from spawning

Index-Maker and Index-Taker both report 0 wakes lifetime, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false AND pidAlive=false simultaneously (never deployed). This is not an agent design failure — it's a platform deployment blocker. Index-Taker's fail-closed audit design is sound, but structurally requires Index-Maker to post intents first.

Index-Maker: 0 wakes, watcher never spawned, no registry entry. Index-Taker: 0 wakes, identical. No LONG IndexBasket intents posted; zero supply for Index-Taker to audit.

Check platform agent-initialization queue: Index-Maker likely not registered with scheduler. Manual registration or restore from config. Once Index-Maker is live and w1 fires, Index-Taker will begin posting audit intents.

Fleet liquidity concentration risk materialized: LP-Maker single point of failure now critical

LP-Maker-Matheus was counterparty on 79% of Vulture-Andrew deals (22/28), 100% of Stacker-Massimo (2/2), 100% of Swing-Nikita (3/3), plus Rebalancer-Lior (8), Arb-Hunter (1+), Option-Writer (1). Total ~40+ of recent deal flow routed through single hub. Now offline 379m with 262m overdue respawn. Current state: 6 open intents <15 USDC expiring, zero peer-to-peer discovery fallback, 4 agents with zero reliable counterparties. Funnel degra

Deal flow: Vulture 22/28 with LP (79%), Rebalancer 8/8 with LP (100%), Stacker 2/2 (100%), Swing 3/3 (100%), Option-Writer 1 settled with LP. Zero peer-to-peer executed in recent cycle. Recent intents (#669, #670, #583, #601) all hung unfil

Once LP recovered: (1) Audit why peer discovery failed (arb-hunter ↔ vulture, rebalancer ↔ stacker could have traded but didn't). (2) Implement dual-sourcing requirement: alerts if any agent >50% dependent on single counterparty. (3) Accelerate Index deployment as secondary liqui

Momentum-Nikita wake-script non-functional: mission unexecutable by design

Wake-script is a stub (getPrices() returns empty array, inline comment: 'full oracle reading is complex'). Agent correctly idle because it cannot trigger volatility-based trading (mission requires ≥3% gap). Settled 1 deal in w1; no activity since. Idle 5h+ by lucky price action (gaps <3%), not by design — if a 3%+ gap appears, agent will still fail.

Wake-script: const gaps = getPrices(…); // returns []. Agent logs w5 '75% USDC already dry powder', w8 '0.3pp gap—far below 2pp minimum'. Agent correctly *identifies* gaps but cannot *execute* because oracle returns empty.

Implement full oracle reading (BitPrices feed), compute gap = (bid − ask) / bid, and trigger trade when gap ≥3%. Trivial 1-line fix. Fallback window: 800m until next w18 fire. Once fixed, agent can execute its volatility mission.

Vulture-Andrew watcher trending toward same platform failure (pidAlive=false, armed=true, 114m fallback pending)

Process exited (pidAlive=false) but recovery scheduled (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=114). If fallback fails (same signature as LP/Option-Writer bug), 2 open rebalance intents expire unfilled (sAAPL 7.8 USDC, sNVDA 4.52 USDC, 46m left) and portfolio remains underweight. Not yet critical but exhibiting early-warning signs of armWatcher timer failure.

pidAlive=false + armed=true + nextFallbackMin=114m suggests process crash with recovery pending. If recovery fails, Vulture joins stuck agents list.

Monitor Vulture watcher next 100m; if fallback fires and process restarts, continues normally. If fallback fails (no reschedule), escalate as armWatcher timer bug and add Vulture to manual recovery list.

Bear-Yosher and Mimic-Ljuba correctly patient in thin binary book

Bear-Yosher: 8 wakes show zero BinaryBet takes meeting ≥1.5% margin; intent #414 (−25/−35pp) fairly priced per floor. Mimic-Ljuba: 8 wakes show sole BinaryBet on book (#414) mispriced −25/−35pp vs Mimic's 3pp floor. Both correctly refuse unedged moves. Root cause: LP offline removed fair-market pricing baseline (LP was primary bet taker).

Bear-Yosher w15–w17: 'no aligned binaries ≥1.5% margin'; w18 hit readIntent bug (LP data malformed). Mimic-Ljuba: consistent 'bet #414 taker edge −25/−35pp, unfillable'. 2 settled deals exist (vs Polymarket-Ljuba, taker not maker).

Monitor post-LP recovery: if fair-market BinaryBets reappear, agents will trade. If binary market remains thin, Index deployment becomes more urgent as secondary venue.

BLOCKING: Fix armWatcher fallback timer bug (promise-drop in event-loop scheduler). Blocks recovery of LP-Maker-Matheus + Option-Writer-Matheus. Once fixed, manually re-invoke both watchers to resume trading.

BLOCKING: Fix Index agent initialization (both 0 wakes lifetime, likely deployment/registration failure). Manually invoke Index-Maker watcher; Index-Taker will follow.

Fix Momentum-Nikita oracle stub (getPrices) — implement BitPrice feed, gap ≥3% trigger. One agent, trivial fix, unlocks volatility mission.

Monitor Vulture-Andrew watcher rescheduling (114m fallback pending). If it fails, apply same armWatcher timer fix and add to manual recovery list.

Post-LP recovery: Audit peer discovery failures (arb ↔ vulture, rebalancer ↔ stacker could trade but didn't), implement dual-sourcing requirement (no agent >50% dependent on single counterparty), deploy Index market as secondary liquidity hub.

Same headline as last run (LP offline), but now confirmed worse: LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 379m ago with a missed 60m respawn fallback (262m overdue). Prior summary identified this as a platform event-loop bug (armWatcher timer promise dropped). Option-writer-matheus also dark 363m with the same patt

Core platform: armWatcher fallback timer failure affected ≥2 agents (LP-Maker at w44, option-writer similar pattern). Caused cascading counterparty starvation across 14 living agents.

Index-Maker and Index-Taker remain undeployed (0 wakes lifetime, armed=false/pidAlive=false)—platform initialization blocker, not agent issue.

Residual book collapse: 6 open intents, mostly small (<15 USDC) and near expiry (<60m), with ≤0.3pp spreads at oracle. Agents cannot execute core missions without LP or direct peer discovery.

Momentum-Nikita wake-script non-functional (no oracle reads)—idle 5h+ by coincidence, not design. Watcher is a stub, cannot measure volatility (core of mission).

Can it take either of the 2 open 0xb591 swaps (15 USDC→BTC/ETH) given its CEX-latency-arb mission, or are these slow on-chain swaps outside scope?

Intent #414 unfilled 100+ min at −25/−35pp floor (prior: structural liquidity scarcity due to LP offline 319m). Should it tighten floor, post new, or hold for market reopen?

0 wakes lifetime, never deployed. Is this waiting on a platform signal (CLAUDE.md config), or is the deployment mechanism itself broken?

0 wakes lifetime, never deployed. Same blocker context—needed before Step 2 assesses mission fit.

**CORE PLATFORM**: Crashed w44 17:19 UTC with 60m fallback scheduled (deadline 18:19) that never fired. Timer now 262m overdue, armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Is this the same event-loop promise-drop as option-writer? Fixable or manual

Correctly refusing bet #414. With LP offline 319m, what other agents in the open book could it trade with? Any other BinaryBet counterparties alive?

Wake-script is a non-functional stub—no oracle reads, zero volatility measurement. Settled 1 deal in w1, idle since (w2–w6 by luck, threshold never breached). How should this script be repaired, or what fallback mission until fixed?

Only counterparty option-writer-matheus also crashed/offline 363m. Even if option-writer restarts, is the taker's watcher well-reasoned (fires on new options OR 2h fallback) for a starved market?

**CORE PLATFORM**: Crashed ~w26 with armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null—same pattern as LP-Maker. Was this the same event-loop bug, or separate failure?

Posted 2 sAAPL directional swaps (intents #583/#601, 5.17% / 4.18% edges) targeting LP-Maker. Both expired unfilled. With LP offline, hunt for other Polymarket misprices, or wait for book recovery?

Patient DCA is sound, but 6 of 8 settled deals (per prior) were with LP. Posted sAAPL/sNVDA corrections (intents #669/#670) awaiting market reopen 13:30 UTC. Can it execute during that window, or will LP still be dark?

Abandoned continuous 6–8m cadence w11–w16, shifted to daily market-open handoff (fires 13:30 UTC). Is small-size DCA fundamentally blocked by LP outage, or is this a temporary pause until book tightens?

All 3 settled deals via LP-Maker-Matheus (now dark). SSV fade (0x289) expired unfilled—thin-book structural issue per prior. With residual book at oracle spreads, can it find any SELLABLE fades?

Transitioned from edge-hunting (79% of 28 deals via LP-Maker) to mandatory portfolio rebalancing. Residual book now ≤0.3% edges, no >1.25% gate exists. Are the 2 open rebalance intents (sNVDA/sAAPL) optimal, or should it post tighter bids t

**CRITICAL**: Investigate armWatcher fallback timer failure. LP-Maker-Matheus scheduled 60m respawn at w44 17:19 UTC (deadline 18:19, now 262m overdue). Promise dropped from event loop. Affects ≥2 age

Deploy index-maker and index-taker. Both at 0 wakes lifetime, never spawned. Check platform initialization config (CLAUDE.md, deployment scripts). These block IndexBasket market entirely.

Thin-book counterparty starvation: 6 open intents, recent 16-deal window shows 14 involve LP. Non-LP peer trades are rare (2 observed). Are agents blind to each other, or does the book not broadcast p

Momentum-nikita: wake-script is a non-functional stub (no oracle reads). This agent has been idle 437m by coincidence, not design. Repair the script to measure volatility, or provide a fallback missio