account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary bet clears the take bar. No swap edge: SSV-sell intents priced against taker; WETH/mBTC blocked by needsApprov

new intent >1754 ≥10bps OR binary bet ≤30min to settlement — 30-min fallback

Summary: HIGH_WATER advanced 1713→1735→1741→1754 across w226–w228 (~41 new intents scanned, 0 binary fills). 1 new swap fill: deal #156 (w227, +109bps SSV-edge vs LP-Maker-Matheus) — fallback swap, not binary. The visible BTC binary at w226 had 23.4h to settle and CEX was $970 below strike (~$64k vs ≥$65k required); both the near-expiry and margin bars fail simultane

Deal #156 (w227) was a +109bps SSV-edge fallback swap vs LP-Maker-Matheus — not a binary fill. HIGH_WATER advanced 1713→1754 (41 intents), zero came near the 30-min expiry threshold; the only visible binary was ~23h to settle and $970 off-strike. Binary silence is structural (no near-decided bets at the right CEX price), not a toolchain block. The watcher id>HIGH_WATER filter is advancing correctly but the near-expiry re-wake gap remains the priority fix.

BTC binary at w226: CEX $970 below strike (needs BTC ≥$65k, Coinbase ~$64k), 23.4h to settle — both the ≥0.5% margin and ≤30min expiry bars fail simultaneously. 0 binary fills across all scanned intents since w219 (template-hash fix); swap arm functional (3 recent fills including deal #156).

Sound reasoning on both surfaces. At w226 the agent correctly cited the exact shortfall (BTC $970 below strike, 23.4h to expiry) rather than deferring blindly. Swap arm reasoning is quantitative and on-mission. No evidence of churn or off-mission moves — correctly waiting on binary when both bars fail.

New intent id > HIGH_WATER (1754) with SSV ≥10bps edge (buy or sell direction)

New binary bet with BINARY_BET_HASHES template hash AND id > HIGH_WATER

MISSING: existing binary bets approaching ≤30min expiry do not re-trigger watcher — label says '≤30min to settlement' fires but code skips any intent already in

Primary counterparty — 9/10 recent swap deals; 11 open quotes across BTC/ETH/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT/SSV with 0.22–0.35% spreads

1 recent deal; posts baited/sharp intents that arb-hunter could take if edge clears 10bps floor

Posts BinaryBets BELOW on BTC/ETH — potential binary counterparty if BTC returns to ≥$65k strike range

none — the BTC binary at w226 was correctly rejected (CEX $970 below strike AND 23.4h to settle; both primary and secondary bars fail). No evidence of a near-decided binary appearing between wakes that was missed, though the watcher gap makes this partially unmeasurable: a bet could cross the 30-min threshold without triggering a dedicated re-wake.

SSV-edge buy/sell trigger correctly fires on actionable swap opportunities — produced 3 fills including deal #156 at +109bps

HIGH_WATER advances each wake (1713→1735→1741→1754 confirmed in source), preventing re-scanning settled intents

Binance SSV feed with 30s cache and Coinbase BTC feed correctly separated for the two surfaces

30-min fallback ensures binary surface is scanned regularly even without new intents

Label claims 'binary bet ≤30min to settlement' as a trigger but implementation discards any intent already in seenIds — a bet that was posted before HIGH_WATER

Only 1 binary template hash hardcoded (0x85aeb4…f9fc, BTC-directional); ETH binary or other templates miss the watcher trigger entirely and rely solely on the 3

After the new-intent scan loop, add a second pass over all open intents: for any intent whose templateHash is in BINARY_BET_HASHES and whose expiry ≤ nowSec + NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC and intentId not in wokenBets — fireWake and add to wokenBets. Th

Watcher binary trigger silently skips existing bets approaching expiry

Code: `if (id <= HIGH_WATER || seenIds.has(intent.intentId)) continue` — once a binary bet enters seenIds on first scan, it is never re-evaluated for time-proximity. A bet posted 40min ago that crosses into ≤30min-to-expiry will only be caught on the next 30-min fallback wake, introducing up to 29mi

Add a post-loop expiry sweep: iterate all open intents for BINARY_BET_HASHES membership + expiry ≤ nowSec + NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC + not in wokenBets → fireWake and persist to wokenBets. This is the single highest-leverage change given the binary arm's 0-fill streak.

Single hardcoded binary template hash misses ETH and other binary instruments

BINARY_BET_HASHES = Set([0x85aeb4…f9fc]) only covers the one known BTC-directional bet template. If bear-yosher or mimic-ljuba post ETH binary bets under a different hash, the watcher's binary trigger won't fire on them.

Fetch the known binary template hashes from belt's template registry at arm-time, or add the ETH binary template hash alongside BTC's.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Intent 1713 expired unfilled. Mission requires exactly one resting BTC-BELOW anchor when posture=SHORT. No binaries to t

intent 1757 resolved | new BinaryBet | BTC>$65,091 | ETH>$1,691 | 4h fallback

Summary: w47 (16:53 UTC Jun 14) confirmed #1713 expired unfilled — BTC ~$63,909 was 1.66% below the $65k strike, making bear-yosher's BELOW side clearly ITM and the ABOVE side rationally unattractive to any counterparty. Re-posted #1757 at same $65k strike (baseline now $64,129, TTL ~17:53 UTC, ~49 min remain at analysis time). Four consecutive anchors unfilled (#162

Intent #1713 was in-the-money for bear-yosher (BTC $63,909 < $65k strike) — no taker stepped up for the ABOVE side because that side was clearly OTM, which is rational market behavior, not a failure. #1757 rests at the same $65k strike with ~49 min left; arb-hunter and vulture are theoretical takers but only if BTC recovers ~1.7% to near strike.

4 consecutive anchors (#1626 $67k, #1674 $65.5k, #1713 $65k, #1757 $65k) expired/resting unfilled; BTC at $63,909 puts the ABOVE side 1.66% OTM — no rational counterparty fills a clearly losing side; no bull agent in fleet is actively hunting ABOVE binary bets

Sound reasoning solving the right problem: adaptive step-down $67k→$65.5k→$65k correctly tracks BTC drift; w43 HALT on ≥3/4 legs up was on-mission discipline; w47 re-post after expiry is crisp. No churn — each wake has a distinct trigger and produces a clear outcome. The unresolved issue is structural (no counterparty for a deeply ITM bet), not a reasoning failure.

intent 1757 resolves (fill or expiry) — correct, handles 1h TTL without relying on 4h fallback

new BinaryBet on book (taker opportunity scan)

BTC > $65,091 (+1.5% from $64,129 baseline — near-strike, appropriately triggers posture re-check)

4h fallback ~20:53 UTC (safety net only)

MISSING: no BTC downward trigger — if BTC falls further, anchor grows more deeply ITM with even less taker interest, but watcher won't wake to re-strike until e

takes near-decided binaries via CEX latency arb — would fill ABOVE only if CEX shows BTC recovering toward $65k; currently OTM at -$2,091 ga

takes near-decided binaries (42 deals, most active binary taker) — same condition as arb-hunter; ABOVE must approach strike for vulture to a

accepts 'winnable' open bets re-priced to live oracle — ABOVE at $63.9k vs $65k strike is not winnable at current price; might act if BTC re

checks Polymarket implied distribution — Polymarket will also price BTC-below-$65k as high probability given spot; won't buy the ABOVE side

none — bear-yosher is the BELOW maker; no open ABOVE bets were visible for bear-yosher to take as taker (w47 confirms 'no binaries to take'); basket buys paused (USDC locked pattern and basket over cap per w43 state)

ownIntentResolved fires on expiry — correctly handles 1h TTL; 4h fallback is pure safety net, not the primary signal

New BinaryBet scan enables opportunistic taker role if a cheap ABOVE bet from another agent appears on book

BTC adverse trigger at $65,091 aligns with strike — HALT fires before the bear bet flips OTM, protecting posture logic

Script correctly tracks new intent ID (1757 after 1713) — well-maintained after each re-post

No downward BTC trigger: if BTC falls to e.g. $62,500 (-2.5% from baseline), the $65k strike becomes even more deeply ITM with near-zero taker probability; watc

Add a BTC fall trigger (e.g., BTC < $62,500, ~-2.5% from $64,129 baseline) to fire a wake for strike reconsideration — a deeply ITM anchor ($65k with BTC at $62k) has essentially zero chance of a taker; an early wake could allow re-posting

Deeply ITM anchor has no downward price trigger to prompt re-striking

Four consecutive anchors all expired unfilled as BTC drifted below each strike. The watcher correctly fires when BTC rises (adverse), but has no trigger when BTC falls further — so a $65k anchor with BTC at $62k would sit until expiry rather than re-evaluate. Each expiry wastes ~1h and 0.04 USDC in

Add a downward trigger (BTC < baseline - 2.5%, ~$62,526 given $64,129) to wake and potentially re-post at a tighter strike, reducing the OTM gap for ABOVE-side takers while preserving the bear conviction.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 33rd consecutive null cycle — zero change from prior run. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No provisioning signal detected this cycle either: no wallet assignment, no config file, no env var. IndexBasket market segment fully offline; index-taker identically dormant, so

Still fully undeployed: 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, null wake script, no wallet address — 33 consecutive cycles with no provisioning signal. This is not a crash; the agent has never started. No action is possible until a wallet and config are assigned.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0, settled_deals='not-indexed'. No change across 33 observed cycles.

No reasoning to evaluate — agent has never executed. The focus question is answered: there is no new provisioning signal this cycle. The null state is unchanged.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher process (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

Designed as the short-side counterparty for LONG IndexBasket intents index-maker would publish

Also fully undeployed — 0 wakes, null sc

unmeasurable: agent has never woken and has no watcher — blind to book by definition

wake_script_source is null — no script exists at all

Provision the agent: assign a wallet, write and deploy a wake script, register the watcher. Without these no analysis of script quality is possible.

Agent never provisioned — 33 null cycles

index-maker has address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, null wake script across 33 observed cycles. It has never started. The IndexBasket market segment (index-maker + index-taker) is fully offline.

Assign a funded wallet, write a wake script that publishes a LONG IndexBasket intent (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and pushes verified source to the indexer, then arm the watcher. Coordinate with index-taker provisioning — a maker with no taker produces intents no one can audit or fill.

index-taker co-dependency — both sides undeployed

index-taker is identically dormant (0 wakes, null script, unknown health). Even if index-maker were deployed today, there is no counterparty to take the short side of its LONG IndexBasket intents.

Deploy index-maker and index-taker together; the market only functions when both sides exist.

Still fully undeployed: 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, null wake script, no wallet address — 33 consecutive cycles with no provisioning signal. This is not a crash; the agent has never started. No action is possible until a wallet and config are assigned.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 34th consecutive null cycle — confirmed no change. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens across all time. Index-maker (sole natural counterparty and only source of LONG IndexBasket intents) remains health=unknown and equally undeployed. Both sides of the IndexBasket market are offline; no unil

34 null cycles; nothing changed. watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false — the process has never started. Index-maker (the only agent that can post LONG IndexBasket intents index-taker could take the short side of) is also health=unknown and undeployed, so there are literally 0 eligible intents in the book. No path to a deal exists until both agents are deployed.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=0. Index-maker is the only source of LONG IndexBasket intents; it is also undeployed (health=unknown, roster). Neither side can act first — index-taker is a pure taker and requires a live maker-side intent.

N/A — 0 wakes, no reasoning to evaluate in any cycle.

MISSING: no wake script deployed (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

sole author of LONG IndexBasket intents; index-taker's only possible counterparty by mission design

undeployed — health=unknown, 0 deals, no

none — index-maker is undeployed so zero LONG IndexBasket intents exist on the book; unmeasurable in the positive sense until index-maker goes live

no trigger on new IndexBasket intents from index-maker

Deploy a wake script that monitors for open LONG IndexBasket intents (filter by template/instrument slug) and fires when one appears — but this is moot until index-maker is deployed first, so the blocker is index-maker deployment, not the w

index-taker never deployed

34 cycles, 0 wakes, $0 tokens, no wake script, no watcher process. The agent has never been initialized.

Deploy index-taker only after index-maker is live and posting LONG IndexBasket intents — deploying in isolation produces 0 deals and burns setup cost for nothing.

index-maker (sole counterparty) equally undeployed

Both sides of the IndexBasket market are offline. Index-taker's mission is structurally taker-only — it cannot post intents, only cross them. No unilateral action is possible.

Sequence: deploy index-maker first, confirm it is posting LONG IndexBasket intents with verified source on the indexer, then deploy index-taker. Without that sequencing, index-taker wakes into an empty book on every cycle.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Cluster X prefire at 17:17 UTC. Oracle moved up ETH/BTC → old bids widened; included in renewal. 11 fresh quotes at targ

Cluster Y prefire ~18:04 UTC | ETH [1660,1665] | BTC [63860,64060] | SSV [2.295,2.310] | stocks | new swap | 90min fallback

Summary: Cluster V→W renewal at w140 (22 TXs) held cleanly through w141-w142 — no fills, no inversions, spreads valid. SSV oracle +1.3% ($2.28→$2.31) at w143 inverted the SSV ask to -52bps, triggering the full 22-TX Cluster X renewal; neither Vulture's 4 fills nor Rebalancer's 2 fills caused an inventory imbalance requiring it — oracle drift drove both renewals. Clus

LP-Maker is healthy and dominant (119 settled deals, 13/16 fleet deals routed here, 11/12 Cluster X quotes live at $746.97 pool). Both cycle cluster renewals were oracle-drift-triggered (SSV +1.3% → -52bps inversion; ETH/BTC -0.43%/-0.34% bid inversion at w147), not fill-induced imbalance. Spread held with τ=3bps floor; w147 applied an 8bps bid floor on the ETH/BTC short-skew side. Recurrent watcher PID death (w146: PID 13079 dead) remains the only structural risk — it leaves all three trigger types blind between death and next scheduled wake.

119 settled deals, $746.97 pool (+$46.97). Cluster renewals V→W and W→X both oracle-drift-triggered (SSV +1.3%, ETH -0.43%, BTC -0.34%). Vulture 4 fills + Rebalancer 2 fills left no detectable inventory imbalance requiring a refresh. All τ<3bps declines (w140b edge -0.69bps, w141 all off-market) wer

Sound and on-mission. SSV -52bps inversion flagged immediately at w143; ETH/BTC bid inversions caught at w147 with inventory-aware 8bps floor. One mispost (ETH ask +0.05bps at w144, below δ_floor) caught and corrected within the cluster. No off-mission churn — every 0-TX wake held valid existing quotes rather than reflexively reposting.

Time: 7min prefire before earliest Cluster X expiry (#1728 BTC ask ~17:24 UTC, ts 1781457420)

New fillable swap intent from non-LP-Maker poster (via readOpenIntents, deduplicated by seen set)

MISSING: no watcher self-resurrection — PID 13079 died silently at w146; only detected on next agent wake, leaving prefire and price-guard triggers blind in the

8+ fills this cycle across swap arm; consistent taker of ETH/BTC/SSV quotes

8 fills this cycle — largest single taker, external wallet

5+ fills this cycle, swaps rotating asset leadership

4 fills this cycle, picks off spread routinely

3 fills; live sNVDA ask within reach, nextFallbackMin=7 (imminent wake)

2 fills this cycle (DCA slices via LP-Maker)

w140b: sAAPL poster wanted slightly above oracle; LP-Maker edge -0.69bps < τ 3.85bps — correctly declined. w141: all intents off-market or below τ=3bps. No measurable missed fills; every decline was within τ policy.

Prefire 7min before earliest Cluster X expiry (#1728 BTC ask ~17:24 UTC) — gives a clean cancel/repost window before quotes go stale

Per-asset inversion guards tuned to actual posted bid/ask inversion points with conservative buffers (e.g. SSV bid inverts at $2.2818, guard low is $2.285; ETH

New fillable swap detector fires immediately on fresh counterparty flow (deduplicated via seen set) — correct responder behavior for hub mission

90min fallback well-calibrated to Cluster X lifetime (earliest expiry ~17:24, fallback ~18:27)

No PID liveness probe: watcher death (w146: PID 13079 dead) is only discovered on the next scheduled agent wake. Between death and discovery, prefire, price-gua

Inside runWatchLoop, read current.pid at startup and compare to process.pid; if the recorded PID is not alive and differs from self, fireWake('watcher PID mismatch — sibling watcher dead, rearm needed'). Alternatively, have the post-wake cl

Recurrent watcher PID death: w146 PID 13079 died silently after firing

Watcher process dies after triggering a wake and is only detected on the next scheduled wake. At w146 (16:52), PID 13079 was dead; recovery required an agent wake to detect (via current.pid check) and rearm PID 13630. This has recurred across prior cycles. During the gap (death → next wake), all thr

Add a PID liveness check inside runWatchLoop (compare current.pid file vs process.pid; if the recorded sibling PID is dead, fire immediately). Alternatively, the post-wake step should assert watcher health and rearm inline rather than exiting and relying on the next wake to discover the gap.

ETH ask mispost below δ_floor at w144 (Cluster X launch)

ETH ask #1726 was posted at +0.05bps above oracle mid ($1,666.67 implied vs oracle $1,666.59), below the configured δ_floor. Required a 2-TX correction at w144. Suggests the spread-calculation logic for ETH on the first post after a full cluster refresh does not enforce δ_floor before submitting.

Assert ask_price ≥ oracle × (1 + δ_floor) before posting in the cluster-post routine; recalculate and re-floor rather than posting and patching.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

No BinaryBet on board to accept; no recent binary flow to mirror. Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on entire visible board (all int

new BinaryBet with ≥3pp edge appears (or 60min fallback)

Summary: Deal #154 (BTC below $64k, $7.38 stake, accepted w96 at 14:27 UTC) has settled as a LOSS — portfolio dropped from $95.62 to $88.24, exactly $7.38, confirming BTC was above $64k at 15:42 UTC expiry despite now trading at ~$63,909. Post-settlement (w97–w100) mimic correctly holds: binary board is empty, no new BinaryBet to mirror or accept. The [object Object]

Deal #154 lost ($7.38; BTC was above $64k at 15:42 UTC, then dropped to $63,909). Portfolio is $88.24, down from $95.62. Binary book has been empty since w97 — no new bet to take or mirror. [object Object] bug recurred at w100 but decisions remain coherent; holding correctly.

w99 (16:47): 'No BinaryBet on board to accept; no recent binary flow to mirror.' w100 (16:32): same — edge floor unmet, 0 open intents. No bear-yosher or polymarket-ljuba binary posted since deal #154 settled at 15:42.

Sound and solving the right problem. w97–w99 cite empty board + one-deliberate-move rule precisely. w98 correctly rejected #1713 at +0–5pp (below 3pp floor). The only noise is the [object Object] log at w100 — the decision output is still valid JSON but the narrative string is corrupted, suggesting an object-to-string coercion bug in the logging path rather than in the reasoning itself.

new BinaryBet matching template hash 0x09cd…060c appears on book

60-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=55 now)

MISSING: edge pre-filter — watcher fires for any new BinaryBet regardless of implied edge, as seen at w98 (+0–5pp, $0.77 wasted wake)

Posts BinaryBets BELOW on BTC/ETH — exactly the source mimic mirrors and takes. bear-yosher health=ok.

health=ok; 17 deals; no active binary on

Settled 1 custom deal with mimic; mission includes posting small-shade binary bets. 3 deals total.

health=unknown; low deal count, activity

Takes near-decided binaries — could post near-decided bets mimic takes; or compete on the same intents.

health=ok; HIGH_WATER advancing (1694→17

Takes clearly-mispriced near-decided binaries — could overlap with mimic's taker criteria on same intents.

None — binary board confirmed empty at w97–w100. BTC at ~$63,909 is below $64k so a new bear-yosher 'BTC below' bet would be ITM and edgeful, but none has been posted. Watcher will catch it within 30s of posting.

Template hash filter (0x09cd…060c) ensures only audited BinaryBet intents trigger a wake — correct and tight

newMatches baseline pattern avoids re-firing on stale intents from before watcher started

60-min fallback ensures mimic wakes even in book silence to check mirror flow

PID file enables external watcher control

Edge pre-filter absent: watcher fires for ANY new BinaryBet; w98 demonstrates this wastes a $0.77 wake on a +0–5pp intent well below the 3pp floor

No directionality guard: w94 noted the new bet was 'opposite to my open above-bet' — watcher still fired

Add a lightweight implied-probability check inside the newMatches predicate: filter out new BinaryBets where |p_on_chain - 0.5| < 0.03 (i.e., edge likely below floor) before firing fireWake — this eliminates marginal-bet wakes without requi

[object Object] serialization bug (recurred w93 + w100)

Wake narrative logs show '[object Object]' in place of a structured value — an object is being coerced to string somewhere in the agent's output logging path. Decisions downstream are correct JSON, so this is a display/logging bug, but it obscures the reasoning chain and could mask a real tool-respo

Audit the agent's CLAUDE.md or wake entrypoint for any string interpolation of a tool response object (e.g., `'result: ' + toolResult` instead of `JSON.stringify(toolResult)`); add explicit serialization at the log site.

Watcher fires on sub-threshold BinaryBets

The watcher predicate is `(i: any) => true` — it triggers on every new BinaryBet regardless of edge. w98 proves this: #1713 at +0–5pp fired a full $0.77 wake that immediately held. At $0.77/wake × potential daily fires this degrades token efficiency.

Add a cheap on-chain implied-probability gate in the watcher predicate before calling fireWake: skip intents where computed edge < 2pp (conservative floor below the agent's 3pp threshold).

Deal #154 lost ($7.38; BTC was above $64k at 15:42 UTC, then dropped to $63,909). Portfolio is $88.24, down from $95.62. Binary book has been empty since w97 — no new bet to take or mirror. [object Object] bug recurred at w100 but decisions remain coherent; holding correctly.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

SSV leads by 0.076pp — that is noise, not momentum signal. The rule exists exactly to avoid chasing marginal edges. Cryp

Leader gap ≥2pp | new SSV/sNVDA fair seller ≥$2 | US mkt close 20:00 UTC | 8h fallback

Summary: w36 (06-14T16:27, 38 min ago) fired and held: SSV gap compressed to 0.521pp vs sNVDA — down from 0.69pp at w35 over 42 min. Hold is correct; still well inside 2pp threshold. Portfolio stable at $102.20 peak (SSV 22.3854 units, 50.4%; USDC 42.3%). Watcher alive and armed; effective next wake is the hardcoded 20:00 UTC market-close trigger (~2h30min out), not

Hold remains correct at 0.521pp (w36) — well below the 2pp edge threshold — but SSV's lead has compressed 0.17pp in 42 min, with sNVDA closing. The watcher will fire at 20:00 UTC for a crypto-only re-rank; if sNVDA crosses SSV before then and no fair sNVDA seller appears on book, the leadership change goes undetected until that hardcoded wake.

0.521pp leader-vs-2nd gap at w36 is below EDGE_PP=0.02 (2pp); mission demands ≥2pp edge before acting — agent correctly idle across w31–w36

Sound and on-mission: consistent 2pp edge filter applied across 6 consecutive wakes (w31–w36) with quantitative gap readings each time. Gap compression from 0.69pp to 0.521pp is noted and correctly classified as noise. One blind spot: slow leadership crossover (both assets drifting together, intra-session gap stays sub-2pp) won't fire the watcher — the agent would discover a flip only at the 20:00

Leader-vs-2nd intra-session gap ≥2pp (from watcher-start baseline)

New fair-value SSV seller ≥$2 notional, ≤oracle×1.005

New fair-value sNVDA seller ≥$2 notional, ≤oracle×1.005

US market close 2026-06-14T20:00:00Z — hardcoded single-use, fires ~2h30min from now

9h fallback (nextFallbackMin=506 — backstop only, well after market-close trigger)

MISSING: leadership-crossover trigger (if sNVDA overtakes SSV without a fair-seller appearing)

6 of 8 recent deals; holds live sNVDA ask (12 USDC→0.05857 sNVDA) and active SSV quotes — primary execution route for any momentum rotation

SSV accumulator with nextFallbackMin=7 (imminent wake); may compete on SSV asks or post bids that cross momentum's taker intent

1 recent deal; DCA cadence could overlap on shared equity/crypto assets

1 recent deal (likely swept a posted intent); opportunistic, not a reliable primary counterparty

none — agent correctly held w31–w36 on signal below threshold; 0.521pp gap does not meet the 2pp entry criterion and no fair-value sNVDA seller appeared at ≤oracle×1.005 since last summary

5 distinct triggers cover the mission surface: intra-session gap, fair-seller detection for both current and candidate leaders (SSV + sNVDA), market-close regim

≥$2 notional guard eliminates micro-lot false alarms (fixed at w34 — validated improvement)

Baseline captured dynamically on first poll, no hardcoded price literals — robust to gap size at watcher-start

MARKET_CLOSE_MS hardcoded to '2026-06-14T20:00:00Z' — single-use; after tonight the trigger is dead unless the agent rewrites the script at the 20:00 UTC wake

No crossover trigger: if sNVDA overtakes SSV while both drift slowly (intra-session gap stays sub-2pp), the leadership flip is invisible to the watcher until th

Compute MARKET_CLOSE_MS dynamically (next upcoming weekday 20:00 UTC from Date.now()) so the script survives across daily cycles; separately, add a 'prior-leader changed vs last-wake rankHistory' check that fires on crossover independent of

Hardcoded market-close date burns after tonight

MARKET_CLOSE_MS = new Date('2026-06-14T20:00:00Z') fires once then expires. If the agent fails to rewrite the script at the 20:00 UTC wake, tomorrow's session loses the market-close regime trigger entirely and falls back to the 9h fallback — a 9h blind period each day.

Replace with dynamic next-close: find the next upcoming 20:00 UTC (Mon–Fri) from Date.now() at script-write time. No hardcoded date literals.

Leadership crossover blind spot between wakes

Gap compressed 0.17pp in 42 min (w35→w36). If sNVDA closes the remaining 0.521pp before 20:00 UTC in a correlated drift (both assets moving together, intra-session delta stays sub-2pp), the watcher has no trigger for the flip — only a fair-seller trigger for sNVDA, which requires a new order to appe

At each wake, write the current leader ranking into rankHistory. In the watcher, compare live leader to last-wake leader; if it flips, fireWake('leader changed: sNVDA now ahead of SSV') immediately regardless of intra-session gap size.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: Confirmed alive and auditing correctly. Since last summary (w33 at 17:31, 196 min ago), no new activity — agent resting on 6h fallback with ~105 min remaining before next fire. All 4 visible settled_deals_detail entries are 'custom settled ↔ 0x57F8…B0ff'; instruments are sNVDA options (deal #119: put strike $201.75 premium $0.23; deal #150: call ~ATM premium

5 lifetime deals all with single counterparty 0x57F8…B0ff (4 confirmed sNVDA options); agent correctly rejected #1600 (40× overpriced) and #1641 (truncated — unclear rejection reason despite 'cheap' premium); $26.81 realized PnL, resting 196 min, 301 min to next fallback. No audited options on book since w33.

Zero audited Options on book at w29, w30, w31, w33; last option taken was deal #150 at w28 (06-11T15:44); 4/4 visible settled deals are with single address 0x57F8…B0ff — if that writer goes quiet, the taker has no source of supply

Sound on filtering: correctly price-screens with explicit breakeven math (#1600: '40× theoretical fair value, requires 5-sigma move'), audits before accepting. Potential gap at w32: 'premium is genuinely cheap (4% of notional)' yet still 'passed' — reasoning text truncated, so we cannot confirm whether rejection was principled (e.g. expiry too short, instrument mismatch) or a logic edge case. This

New audited Option intent with AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH = 0xb3d66f4... appears on book (delta detection vs seenIntentIds, 60s poll)

6h fallback (FALLBACK_MS = 6h; nextFallbackMin=301, ~105 min remaining)

Primary (and likely sole) supply source — 0x57F8…B0ff is almost certainly option-writer-matheus's wallet given naming and that all 4-5 visib

unknown — 0x57F8 identity unconfirmed fr

Posts swaps only, not Options with AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH

None verifiable: #1600 correctly rejected (40× fair value), #1641 rejection at w32 has truncated reasoning — cannot confirm whether it was a correct pass or a missed edge. No other audited options appeared between w28 and w33.

Delta-detection (seenIntentIds) fires immediately on any new audited Option — correct for a mission where being first to a cheap option matters

60s poll cadence is appropriate: options appear infrequently, poll is cheap (no LLM), and 60s latency is acceptable for an option that rests hours

6h fallback provides periodic settlement sweep even in quiet markets — catches expired-but-unsettled deals

Template hash filter (0xb3d66f4...) ensures only audited options trigger, preventing blind acceptance of unknown custom deals

seenIntentIds initializes on first poll with the full current set — any option already on book when the watcher starts is silently skipped until the 6h fallback

No wake fired for settlement of existing deals — the 6h fallback handles it, but settlement latency is up to 6h after expiry if no new options appear

On first poll (seenIntentIds === null), instead of silently skipping existing options, fire immediately if any audited option is on book — eliminates the up-to-6h restart blind spot for options already posted before the watcher starts.

0x57F8…B0ff counterparty identity unconfirmed

All 4-5 settled deals are with one address; if this is not option-writer-matheus (or if option-writer pivots instruments), the taker has zero supply pipeline. The floor 'is 0x57F8 option-writer-matheus?' is unanswered from current data.

Confirm option-writer-matheus's on-chain address and add it to agent context so the taker can explicitly note 'primary supply = option-writer-matheus @ 0x57F8' and track writer activity cadence

w32 #1641 rejection reasoning truncated — cannot audit the decision

w32 wake log: 'Premium is genuinely cheap (4% of notional vs 6% for intent #...' then cuts off before conclusion. The agent 'Passed intent #1641' (rejected) despite citing cheap premium — the rejection criterion is invisible. This could be correct (expiry too short, wrong instrument) or a logic edge

Ensure the agent logs its full rejection rationale to the wake transcript, not just the opening assessment; the acceptance/rejection criterion should be the final logged line

Watcher restart blind-spot for options already on book

seenIntentIds initializes with the full current audited set on first poll, so any option already posted before the watcher starts is treated as 'already seen' and skipped — up to 6h miss window until fallback fires.

On first poll, fireWake immediately if auditedOptions.length > 0 rather than silently seeding the set; the agent's wake will then evaluate and reject or take as appropriate

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Previous near-oracle pricing (1h TTL) did not fill. Repricing 0.5% cheaper (sAAPL 291.15→289.7, sNVDA 205.1→204.1) shoul

repriced buy intents resolve (0x6e2 sAAPL, 0x6e3 sNVDA) — or 1h fallback

Summary: 0x6b4/0x6b5 (near-oracle, 2h TTL posted at w4 15:58) did not fill within 44min; w5 (16:42) superseded them with repriced intents 0x6e2/0x6e3 at oracle−0.5% (sAAPL 289.7, sNVDA 204.1). Watcher re-armed on the new intents, 1h fallback, 58min remaining. Option sleeve remains silent — 1 ETH call posted at w1, canceled at w2, zero option intents across 3 subseque

Stock buys stalled because writer bids sNVDA at oracle×0.995 (204.1) while LP-Maker's live ask is oracle×1.01 (204.77) — ~1.5% spread that won't cross at current prices. Option sleeve is functionally abandoned: active option buyers 0x57F8 and Option-Taker settled 5 deals this cycle with zero supply from this agent. 19 total settled deals at −11.34 USDC PnL.

LP-Maker sNVDA ask ~204.77 (oracle×1.01) vs writer bid 204.1 (oracle×0.995) — 1.5% gap; no other stock sellers visible. Option sleeve not posting so option takers (0x57F8, Option-Taker) have nothing to fill against.

Portfolio engine reasoning is sound — worst-2 discipline maintained across 5 wakes, TTL extension then repricing is adaptive. However, the w2 deferral ('rebalancing has higher priority than option repricing') has silently become permanent: 3 more wakes ran with no option-sleeve re-evaluation. The agent is solving the right portfolio problem while ignoring 30% of its stated mission.

0x6e2 sAAPL buy intent resolves (fill or expiry)

0x6e3 sNVDA buy intent resolves (fill or expiry)

MISSING: no trigger or cadence check for option sleeve — option-writing is only considered opportunistically, with no floor on deferral

Has live sNVDA ask at oracle×1.01; writer bids at oracle×0.995 — 1.5% spread, won't cross without one side moving ~0.5%

live, 11 open quotes across BTC/ETH/sAAP

Natural option-sleeve counterparty — settled 3 deals with external 0x57F8 this cycle and is actively seeking options; zero supply from write

Also buying sNVDA/sAAPL — same directional demand, not a seller

May hold sAAPL/sNVDA sell pressure when rotating out (2 recent LP-Maker deals suggest sMSFT trim active); occasional but not reliable

Option sleeve: 0x57F8 and Option-Taker are active option buyers with 5 combined deals this cycle; writer posted 0 option intents since w2 cancellation — direct revenue miss on the 30% sleeve. Stock buys: no fill available at oracle−0.5% given LP-Maker floor at oracle+1%; structural gap, not behavioral miss.

Fires on either intent resolving (fill or expiry) — correct for a passive buyer waiting on counterparty flow

30s poll cadence appropriate for a 2h intent window with active repricing loop

1h fallback prevents indefinite wait; ensures agent re-evaluates pricing or pivots after timeout

No option-sleeve signal: watcher is purely stock-buy focused; the 1h fallback will wake the agent but there is no prompt or state to force option-sleeve re-eval

Fires on EITHER intent resolving — if one fills quickly the agent wakes while the other is still live, potentially creating partial-fill ambiguity on the next d

When the 1h fallback fires, inject a flag into the wake context that no option intent has been posted in >3 wakes, so the agent is forced to evaluate the option sleeve before re-queuing another stock buy cycle.

Option sleeve functionally abandoned after w2

5 wakes, 1 option posted (w1 ETH call, 0x669), canceled w2, zero since. Active option buyers (0x57F8 + Option-Taker, 5 deals this cycle) have no supply from this writer. The 70/30 portfolio/option split is running 100/0.

Add a CLAUDE.md rule: option-sleeve posting must be re-evaluated at minimum every 3 wakes, independent of portfolio rebalancing priority. The w2 deferral logic should not be a standing override.

Stock buy bids structurally below available ask floor

Writer bids sNVDA at oracle×0.995 (204.1 USDC); LP-Maker's live ask is oracle×1.01 (204.77 USDC) — 1.5% spread. At oracle−0.5% the agent has 0 reliable counterparties for stock buys.

Consider accepting oracle-flat pricing for small lots to cross LP-Maker's asks, or explicitly in CLAUDE.md define a max-wait period after which the agent accepts the spread rather than re-posting indefinitely below the market.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Position well past weekly horizon expiry. No mispriced taker opportunities (best=null). No maker edge (bestSwap=null, al

sAAPL exit intent #1754 resolves, new takeable bet (≥8pp), or 24h fallback

Summary: ALIVE at w50 (16:32 UTC, 32 min ago); watcher armed on #1754, 23.7h fallback. Critical new finding this cycle: DOUBLE-POSTED sAAPL exit — w49 posted #1711 and w50 posted #1754 (both 0.085722 sAAPL→24.96 USDC, ~$291/sAAPL) just 1 min apart; watcher only monitors #1754, leaving #1711 blind. Prior 6-wake no-op streak (w43–w48) correctly held at ≥8pp threshold.

Healthy and running (wakes_failing=false, no errors) but w49+w50 double-posted two identical sAAPL exit intents (#1711 and #1754, 0.085722 sAAPL→24.96 USDC each) 1 min apart. Watcher only tracks #1754; a #1711 fill goes undetected for up to 23.7h. At $291/sAAPL (oracle mid), pricing is within Stacker-Massimo's ≤oracle+1% mandate — that wake is the most likely resolution event.

3 settled deals in 49 wakes (6.1% hit rate); w43–w48 (6 consecutive wakes) returned 'no mispriced opportunities ≥8pp'; sole identified counterparty is Mimic-Ljuba (1 custom deal); Options/BinaryBet book thin fleet-wide

Sound for its taker mission — ≥8pp threshold and 24h expiry rule applied consistently and correctly across w43–w48. sAAPL time-exit logic (horizon + 53h) is correct. The double-post (w49→w50) is a mechanical bug, not a reasoning failure — the agent didn't detect its own just-posted #1711 before re-entering the exit branch.

#1754 resolves (fill/expire/cancel) via ownIntentResolved

New BinaryBet/Option on book (poster != self) with ≥8pp potential

24h fallback (~1423 min, Jun 15 16:32 UTC)

MISSING: #1711 resolution — posted at w49, not monitored by current watcher; fill/expiry is silent until 24h fallback fires

Accumulates sAAPL at ≤oracle+1%; $291/sAAPL at oracle mid is within mandate; had imminent wake (nextFallbackMin=7) at Step-1 snapshot — like

Quotes sAAPL two-sided; could absorb sAAPL sell if inventory is short, but LP-Maker is a passive quoter not a systematic intent taker

DCA into equities plausible; fired 2 LP-Maker deals this cycle suggesting active rebalancing rotation

Has its own competing sAAPL sell open per Step-1 fleet context — same side, won't take

None verifiable — w43–w48 found no ≥8pp bets on book; Option-Taker's 3 new deals with 0x57F8…B0ff this cycle were off-book custom fills, not open intents polymarket-ljuba could have scanned and taken.

Fires on ownIntentResolved(#1754) — correct primary trigger for position exit management

Fires on new BinaryBet/Option (poster != self) appearing on book — directly mission-aligned taker trigger

60s poll cadence appropriate for a patient taker; 24h fallback is safe floor

Blind to intent #1711 — posted at w49 but not in the resolution check; if #1711 fills first, agent waits up to 23.7h

No guard preventing duplicate exit intents — the w49→w50 double-post is a symptom of missing 'own sAAPL sell already open?' pre-check

Extend the resolution check to cover both open sAAPL exit intents: generalize ownIntentResolved to scan for any own open give-sAAPL intents and fire if all are resolved — eliminates the #1711 blind-spot and makes it resilient to future doub

Double sAAPL exit intent (#1711 + #1754, identical terms, 1 min apart)

w49 posted #1711 (0.085722 sAAPL→24.96 USDC) at 16:31 UTC; w50 posted #1754 with identical parameters at 16:32 UTC. Agent did not detect its own just-posted #1711 before re-entering the exit branch. Both are live on-chain simultaneously. If both are taken, agent must deliver 0.171444 sAAPL total — p

In the sAAPL exit branch, scan own open intents for any existing give-sAAPL swap before posting; abort if one exists. This is a one-check guard in the exit trigger logic.

Watcher blind to #1711 — up to 23.7h dead zone on its fill

runWatchLoop checks ownIntentResolved('1754') only. If #1711 settles (fill, expire, or cancel) before #1754, agent stays dormant until the Jun 15 16:32 UTC fallback — a missed fill goes unprocessed, or a cancelled intent goes unreplaced, for up to 23.7h.

Add ownIntentResolved('1711') check in parallel with the #1754 check inside runWatchLoop, firing on whichever resolves first. Longer-term: generalize to check all own open sAAPL-exit intents by scanning readOpenIntents filtered by self + sAAPL.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: The 2 LP-Maker deals are BTC DCA fills from ~06-10 (ETH #1156 + BTC #1294 after escalating to +4% premium) — pre-dating the last summary, not new. sMSFT trim has NOT executed; it remains the critical path for Monday 06-16T13:30Z. No activity since w47 (06-14T13:46, 199 min ago). Watcher correctly armed 2725 min out (≈ 06-16T14:30Z fallback). Portfolio: sMSFT

No new deals or wakes since last summary. The 2 LP-Maker fills (BTC DCA at escalating premiums, peaking +4%) are 06-10 activity captured in settled_deals_detail. sMSFT trim → USDC → BTC DCA remains the entire plan, gated on US market open Monday 06-16T13:30Z; watcher fires cleanly on that trigger.

US equity market closed (weekend); sMSFT oracle unavailable until 06-16T13:30Z; USDC ≈ 0 after 06-10 BTC fills — no capital path exists until trim settles

Sound and on-mission. The BTC escalation ladder (oracle → +1.47% → +2.07% → +3% → +4%) was methodical; #1294 filled at +4% via LP-Maker showing the agent correctly pushed until filled. Pre-approving sMSFT at w46 was a smart Monday-blocker removal. One mild concern: the -1.61pp BTC residual gap was assessed in w45 (06-10T23:41) — four days of oracle drift by Monday could shift the target; the agent

Time-gate: Date.now() >= 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z (US stock open)

Fallback hardcoded: 2026-06-16T14:30:00Z (1 h safety net)

Settled 2 of last 4 deals with Rebalancer (BTC DCA fills); holds live sMSFT asks (12 USDC→0.05857 sNVDA sighted; BTC/ETH quotes active) — wi

Posts sMSFT bids at oracle+0.5%; could absorb the sMSFT trim as a taker alternative to LP-Maker, though Stacker bids at a tighter spread tha

imminent wake (nextFallbackMin=7 at prio

Settled 1 deal with Rebalancer (likely ETH #1156); takes swaps into strong movers — relevant if sMSFT is trending Monday but not reliable fo

none — USDC ≈ 0 and stock oracle offline until Monday; no actionable book opportunity exists within capital/market-hours constraints

Fires exactly at 13:30Z market open — precise match to the mission's only unlock condition

5-min poll interval appropriate for a pure time-gate (not spammy, not sluggish)

Fallback at 14:30Z is a clean 1-hour safety net; zero LLM in watcher loop

Math.max guard on FALLBACK_MS prevents negative-offset edge case

FALLBACK_MS computed at script-load (w47, 06-14T13:46); pidAlive=true confirms the process is live and the 2725 min nextFallbackMin is consistent with 06-16T14:

If the process dies and restarts before Monday, FALLBACK_MS would recompute from the new Date.now() — still correct (always points to 14:30Z), but worth knowing

On Monday's wake, re-fetch live portfolio gaps before executing — the -1.61pp BTC delta was assessed 06-10T23:41; four days of oracle drift or any intervening fills could shift the real gap, and posting a stale-sized BTC intent risks oversh

Cached BTC gap (-1.61pp) is 4 days stale by Monday execution

The planned BTC DCA quantity was derived at w45 (06-10T23:41) after the +4% fill. By Monday 06-16, oracle drift and any external fills on Rebalancer's address could shift the real underweight. The wake script label hardcodes '-1.61pp' which will be passed to the agent as a prior — the agent may anch

In Monday's wake prompt, instruct the agent to re-fetch current balances and recompute all gaps before sizing the BTC intent. Remove the hardcoded '-1.61pp' from the fireWake label to avoid anchoring.

No new deals or wakes since last summary. The 2 LP-Maker fills (BTC DCA at escalating premiums, peaking +4%) are 06-10 activity captured in settled_deals_detail. sMSFT trim → USDC → BTC DCA remains the entire plan, gated on US market open Monday 06-16T13:30Z; watcher fires cleanly on that trigger.

Stacker-Massimo

Taker-led tech-equity accumulator: take resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle, 24/7, ~10 USDC lots; post own bid at oracle+0.5% only when nothing is takeable. Accumulate until 100 USDC deployed; never sell.

No takeable sNVDA asks exist; bid 1599 is on-price and unexpired — nothing to do.

Summary: Blind-spot NOT fixed. The w38 miss (LP-Maker's live sNVDA ask ~$204.77 / 12 USDC overlooked) recurs structurally: current.ts trigger 3 still uses `newMatches(seenIntents, …)`, firing only on intents that arrived AFTER seenIntents was seeded — resting LP-Maker asks pre-dating the seed are silently skipped until the 45-min fallback. LP-Maker's current live ask

The watcher's `newMatches` filter is structurally unchanged — resting sNVDA asks (including LP-Maker's live 12 USDC→0.05857 sNVDA quote) will not fire a wake if present at seenIntents seed time. Only the imminent 5-min fallback triggers evaluation. Worse: w38 showed even a fallback wake can report 'no takeable ask' against a live matching intent, so the fallback may not fix the miss either — the main agent's own filter logic needs auditing.

w38 (15:34) no-op despite LP-Maker ask (12 USDC→0.05862 sNVDA, ~$204.77) on book; current.ts trigger 3 `newMatches(seenIntents, intents, i => isTakeableSnvdaSell(i, oracleNow))` fires only on intents not in seenIntents — resting asks present at seed time are invisible until the 45-min fallback

Sound within each wake — correctly applies cost ≤12 USDC and implied price ≤ oracle×1.01 (confirmed by Deal 153 at w37). The problem is not the per-wake logic but what schedules wakes: the watcher asks 'did a new ask appear?' instead of 'is any ask takeable now?' — correct reasoning, wrong question.

own bid 1599 resolved (filled or expired)

oracle drift >0.5% from $205.10 baseline

newly-seen sNVDA sell intent passes isTakeableSnvdaSell — NEW intents only, resting asks invisible

MISSING: fire on ANY currently-takeable sNVDA ask each poll, regardless of when it appeared

3 of 6 confirmed deals; live sNVDA ask right now (12 USDC→0.05857 sNVDA, ~22 min left at snapshot) — the exact counterparty Stacker should s

active — 11 open quotes including live s

1 confirmed sNVDA swap deal; holds diversified equity inventory including sNVDA

LP-Maker's live sNVDA ask (12 USDC→0.05857 sNVDA, ~$204.77 implied) meets both Stacker criteria (cost ≤12 USDC; $204.77 ≤ oracle×1.01≈$207.15) — watcher will not fire on it if it predates seenIntents seed; same structural miss as w38. w38's LP-Maker ask (12 USDC→0.05862 sNVDA) was also missed despite passing both checks.

Fires on own bid 1599 resolved — highest-priority event for this mission

Fires on oracle drift >0.5% — appropriate for a ≤1% tolerance taker

45-min fallback as safety net (catches the blind-spot eventually)

Zero-LLM, 60-second poll cadence, pid-file management correct

Trigger 3 uses `newMatches(seenIntents, …)` — resting asks present at seenIntents seed time are seeded in and never fire a wake, only the 45-min fallback recove

First-iteration seed-and-return pattern extends the blind window on every watcher restart

No per-poll check for ANY currently-takeable ask — the mission is '24/7 taker', but the watcher only reacts to novelty

Replace trigger 3 with a direct per-poll check: `const hits = intents.filter(i => isTakeableSnvdaSell(i, oracleNow)); if (hits.length) fireWake('takeable sNVDA ask live: ' + hits[0].intentId)`. Remove the seenIntents seed-and-skip guard for

Watcher fires only on NEW sNVDA asks — resting asks invisible until 45-min fallback

current.ts trigger 3 `newMatches(seenIntents, intents, …)` gates on intents not yet in seenIntents. LP-Maker's resting ask, present at seed time, is added to seenIntents on iteration 1 (the seed-and-return pass) and never triggers a wake. The 45-min fallback is the only path, but w38 showed even tha

Replace `newMatches` for this trigger with `intents.filter(i => isTakeableSnvdaSell(i, oracleNow))` checked every poll; drop the seenIntents pattern for the sNVDA trigger. Keep seenIntents only if needed for other novelty-based triggers.

Main agent wake logic also reported no takeable ask at w38 despite LP-Maker's matching intent being live

w38 output: 'No takeable sNVDA sell-side (≤ oracle×1.01 AND ≤12 USDC)' — LP-Maker's ask (12 USDC→0.05862 sNVDA, ~$204.77) passed both checks and was live. Either the agent's readOpenIntents call filters by poster address / intent type in a way that excludes LP-Maker, or there is a timing race. Canno

Audit the main agent's readOpenIntents call and sNVDA-sell filter; verify it uses the same isTakeableSnvdaSell logic (posterGives=sNVDA, posterWants=USDC, no poster-address exclusion). Add a debug log of the raw intent list at each wake to make misses observable.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Nothing crosses the 1.5% dislocation threshold. No edge to trade.

dislocation ≥1.5% from trailing avg on any active asset (or 2h fallback)

Summary: Prior run confirmed no breach at w36 (BTC -0.41% vs baseline). Now at w37, watcher refreshed baselines to BTC=64163.20 (slightly lower than 64174.56), reducing the gap-to-trigger from ~$960 to ~$708 at ~$63,909 spot — threshold still unmet. The 2 settled LP-Maker deals in detail are pre-w36 legacy (June 11 w30–w33 sessions), NOT new threshold breaches — conf

No dislocation threshold crossed since prior summary; the 2 settled LP-Maker deals predate w34 (June 11 sessions) and settled during the 3-day dormancy gap (06-11→06-14). BTC is at ~$63,909 vs trigger of ~$63,201 (-1.5% of 64163.20 baseline) — still ~$708 short. All 36 wakes healthy, watcher armed with 110 min to fallback.

BTC: -0.39% from baseline (63909 vs 64163.20 — needs -1.5% = $63,201); ETH: likely flat vs 1663.44 baseline; SSV blocked by zero inventory (confirmed w30–w33); stocks closed Sunday. 5 total settled deals, all vs LP-Maker, none since 06-11T07:19 (w33).

Sound, solving the right problem. Agent correctly identifies warmup requirements (≥3 samples), market-hours gating for stocks, zero-inventory SSV block, and sub-threshold crypto spreads. No churn: each no-action wake states a specific gap or block. Reasoning is quantitative (e.g., '0.41% vs 1.5% threshold') and distinct per wake.

Any tracked symbol deviates ≥1.5% from hardcoded BASELINES (BTC=64163.20, ETH=1663.44, SSV=2.29, sAAPL=291.15, sNVDA=205.10, sMSFT=390.84)

2h fallback (nextFallbackMin=110 — fires in ~110 min from now)

MISSING: baselines are frozen at w37 scan time for the full 2h watcher window — a sharp intraday move + mean reversion could cause a fire on a stale baseline; a

All 5 settled deals are LP-Maker swaps; 11 open quotes cover BTC/ETH/sNVDA — exact instruments swing-nikita targets for dislocation fades

DCA swaps could overlap on BTC/ETH direction but rebalancer is taker-only — would need to post on same side, not cross

None verifiable — w30–w37 wake logs confirm agent correctly identified all blocks (SSV zero-inventory, sNVDA sub-threshold, stocks closed). No resting intents at ≥1.5% dislocation appeared; cannot be confirmed from watcher (it polls prices, not book) but wake reasoning cross-checks.

Fires precisely on the dislocation condition the mission requires (≥1.5% from trailing avg), zero-LLM trigger

2h fallback ensures baselines are refreshed each wake cycle even if prices never trigger

US market-hours guard for stocks is correct — avoids firing on illiquid stock price reads outside trading hours

60s poll is appropriate cadence for a price-threshold watcher (not sub-minute; the 1.5% threshold filters out noise)

Baselines are hardcoded constants from the last wake scan — they don't roll within the 2h watcher window; if BTC spikes 2% then reverts, the fire is on a baseli

SSV zero-inventory block is handled inside the agent (wake logs show it) but the watcher still polls SSV price and could fire a wake for SSV even when inventory

Skip SSV in the poll loop when inventory is known zero (can write a sentinel file at agent teardown); avoids spurious SSV-triggered wakes that immediately no-op.

Watcher polls SSV price despite persistent zero-inventory block

w30–w33 all report 'SSV blocked by zero inventory' — the watcher can still fire on an SSV ≥1.5% move, triggering a wake that immediately no-ops. Confirmed by SSV baseline (2.29) still present in BASELINES.

Write a /agent/data/wake/ssv_inventory_zero sentinel at teardown when SSV=0; skip SSV entries in the poll loop if the sentinel exists.

3-day dormancy gap (06-11T07:19 w33 → 06-14T12:56 w34) unexplained

No wakes logged for ~3 days. If the watcher fell off (process killed, container restart), it would be invisible in current health metrics since the watcher re-armed successfully. The 2 LP-Maker settled deals likely came from this window with no monitoring.

Check container restart logs or watcher PID history for that window; if the watcher died silently, the 2h fallback was also missing for ~72h.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

ETH eroded 1761 below 0.8% watcher floor (ETH rose 0.24%). sMSFT upgrade: no rival after old cluster expired — 0.8% extr

16 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781459185; next poll 75s

0 takeable/0 mirrorable w121-w124; rivals at 0.22-0.35% (w123) vs Vulture 1% floor; 5 sells + 5 buys open across sAAPL/sMSFT/ETH/BTC/SSV with no takers; recent settled: 4 deals ↔ LP-Maker, 1 ↔ Momentum-Nikita

new takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges every 30s)

~5 min pre-expiry of soonest open intent

quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: binary near-decided / approaching-resolution trigger

4/5 recent deals ↔ LP-Maker; but direction unclear — if LP-Maker is taker on Vulture's maker intents, Vulture may be mispriced in LP-Maker's

1 recent swap deal; rotates across same asset universe Vulture covers

DCA swaps in same assets; could take Vulture's maker bids on rebalance slices

Crypto-down taker; ETH/BTC sell bids Vulture posts align if BTC conviction fires

30s token-free polling via scan-edges + check-my-quotes — correct zero-LLM loop for a reactive taker/maker hybrid

Pre-seeded honeypot IDs (779/836/869) prevent watcher from re-firing on confirmed bad intents

Pre-expiry trigger preserves book presence around intent TTL windows

check-my-quotes cancelCmds correctly fired in w120 catching SSV undercut before agent woke

No binary near-decided / approaching-resolution scan — Vulture's mission explicitly covers near-decided binaries but the watcher has no specific trigger for the

1% edge floor hardcoded; with LP-Maker at 0.22-0.35%, Vulture's maker intents will structurally never attract organic takers on shared instruments

Maker floor 1% vs LP-Maker 0.22-0.35% — structurally uncompetitive on all 7 shared assets

LP-Maker compressed from 1.31% (last cycle) to 0.22-0.35% this cycle. Vulture's 1% floor is 3-4x LP-Maker's tightest spread on identical instruments. No taker will prefer Vulture's 1% over LP-Maker's 0.35%. Result: 0 maker fills in w121-w124 despite 10-11 live intents.

Lower maker floor to <0.5% to compete, OR restrict maker intents to instruments LP-Maker doesn't quote (binary bets, options, index baskets) where 1% may be competitive.

4/5 recent deals ↔ LP-Maker — direction unverified, adverse selection risk

If LP-Maker is taking Vulture's maker quotes (not vice versa), LP-Maker sees edge in them — Vulture's oracle pricing may lag LP-Maker's real-time feed. Requires inspecting deal maker/taker sides in settled_deals_detail.

Check deal direction for the 4 LP-Maker trades; if LP-Maker is consistently taker-side on Vulture intents, Vulture's oracle reference is stale relative to LP-Maker's and needs a tighter price source.

Binary near-decided path has no watcher trigger

Vulture's mission includes 'near-decided binaries' but w121-w124 show only swap scanning; no binary expiry events fired wakes. Vulture relies on 2h fallback or accidental quote-erosion path to catch approaching binary resolutions — potentially missing its highest-edge category.

Extend scan-edges output to flag binaries approaching resolution (e.g., <5% from strike with <2h TTL), and add a fireWake trigger in the watcher when one appears.

HUB HEALTHY; BINARY FROZEN

~130 (~82%, extrapolated from 13/16 recent deals)

~29 (~18%, option-taker 5 confirmed + bear/polymarket; extrapolated)

LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ Vulture-Andrew / Rebalancer-Lior / Swing-Nikita / Arb-Hunter-Tom / 0xBd6a…9863 / Option-Writer-Matheus

ACTIVE — hub: 10+/16 recent deals through LP-Maker; Cluster X live, spreads 0.22

ACTIVE — 3 new custom deals this cycle (5 total); Option-Writer option sleeve si

Option-Writer-Matheus → LP-Maker-Matheus / 0xBd6a…9863

PARTIAL — stock bids 1.5% below LP-Maker asks; repriced w5 to oracle−0.5%; gap p

Bear-Yosher [ABOVE side only] — no fleet counterparty

FROZEN — 4 consecutive unfilled anchors; BTC $63,909 vs $65k strike (1.66% OTM);

STALLED — dual-exit bug: #1711 + #1754 both live (same 0.085722 sAAPL→24.96 USDC

OFFLINE — both undeployed, 34th consecutive null cycle

LP-Maker compressed spreads to 0.22–0.35% (Cluster W→X renewal, oracle-drift-triggered)

Vulture-Andrew's 1% floor makes all 7 open maker positions structurally uncompetitive; wakes w121–w124 found 0 takeable

Vulture badge 'MAKER UNDERCUT, TAKER DRY'; 4 recent Vulture fills all ↔ LP-Maker (taker-side); LP-Maker SSV quote at 0.35% (Cluster X, w143)

Option-Writer option sleeve silent since w2 (0 option intents posted in 3+ wakes)

Option-Taker's sole on-chain supply is external 0x57F8…B0ff (reliableCounterparties=1); if 0x57F8 pauses, the entire opt

Option-Writer: '1 ETH call posted at w1, cancelled at w2, zero option intents in subsequent wakes'; Option-Taker: 4/4 settled deals all vs 0x57F8, badge 'AUDITING, RESTING'

BTC spot ~$63,909 — 1.66% below $65k strike

Bear-Yosher ABOVE side deeply OTM → no rational counterparty fills; binary market frozen fleet-wide; Arb-Hunter's ≥0.5%

4 consecutive unfilled Bear-Yosher anchors (#1626/$67k, #1674/$65.5k, #1713/$65k, #1757/$65k); Arb-Hunter HIGH_WATER 1694→1754 with 0 binary fills; Mimic-Ljuba reports 'No BinaryBet on board' at w99–w

Stacker-Massimo watcher trigger 3 uses newMatches(seenIntents, …) — fires only on intents arriving after seed

Resting LP-Maker sNVDA asks present at seed time are invisible until the 45-min fallback fires; the w38 miss (12 USDC→0.

current.ts trigger 3: `newMatches(seenIntents, intents, i => isTakeableSnvdaSell(i, oracleNow))`; LP-Maker sNVDA ask live on book at w38 but skipped; nextFallbackMin=37 at analysis — fallback is the r

LP-Maker is the sole liquid hub (10+/16 recent deals, 6 dependent counterparties, 119 lifetime settled deals)

Any LP-Maker outage, oracle-drift-triggered renewal gap, or inversion event simultaneously starves all 6 dependent agent

Vulture 4/4 recent fills ↔ LP-Maker; Rebalancer 2/2 fills ↔ LP-Maker; Arb-Hunter swap fill ↔ LP-Maker; Cluster X renewal = 22 TXs creating a brief quote gap

US equity markets closed (weekend); Rebalancer USDC ≈ $0 after 06-10 BTC fills

sMSFT trim blocked until 06-16T13:30Z; Rebalancer has no capital path until then; Option-Writer stock bids moving slowly

Rebalancer nextFallbackMin=2709 (≈06-16T14:30Z fallback); 'USDC ≈ 0 after 06-10 BTC fills'; Option-Writer repriced stock bids to oracle−0.5% but oracle frozen over weekend

Binary market frozen — no bull-side fleet counterparty

4 consecutive Bear-Yosher anchors unfilled (strikes $67k→$65.5k→$65k→$65k); BTC at $63,909 puts ABOVE side 1.66% OTM. Arb-Hunter has scanned ~41 new intents since w219 with 0 binary fills — margin and expiry bars fail simultaneously on every visible binary. Mimic-Ljuba holds correctly but has nothing to mirror. No fleet agent offers ABOVE-side binary bets.

Bear-Yosher anchors #1626, #1674, #1713, #1757 all unfilled; Arb-Hunter HIGH_WATER 1694→1754, 0 binary fills; Mimic-Ljuba w99–w100 'No BinaryBet on board'; reliableCounterparties=0 for Bear-Yosher

Deploy a bull-binary agent, or reprice Bear-Yosher strike to near-spot ($63k ± 0.5–1%) to attract a rational fill; alternatively configure Mimic-Ljuba to post the ABOVE side when bear-yosher posts BELOW and edge threshold is met

Stacker-Massimo watcher blind spot — resting intents skipped at seed

Trigger 3 in current.ts (`newMatches(seenIntents, …)`) fires only on intents arriving after the seed snapshot. LP-Maker's live sNVDA ask (12 USDC→0.05862 sNVDA, ~$204.77) is on the book right now and meets Stacker's criteria but will be skipped until the 45-min fallback. This is the structural recurrence of the w38 miss.

nextFallbackMin=37 at analysis — fallback is the real wake trigger every cycle, not the watcher; LP-Maker sNVDA ask confirmed live in open book (54m left)

Change trigger 3 to scan the full current book at seed time (not just new arrivals since seed); or add a startup scan that fires immediately if a takeable sNVDA sell is already present when the watcher initializes

LP-Maker hub concentration — fleet single point of failure

10+/16 recent deals route through LP-Maker; all 6 active counterparties (Vulture, Rebalancer, Swing, Arb-Hunter, Option-Writer, 0xBd6a) depend on the same pool. Cluster X renewal (22 TXs) leaves a brief window with no quotes. If LP-Maker goes offline or hits an inversion cascade, the entire fleet loses liquidity simultaneously.

LP-Maker 119 lifetime settled deals; recent deals: Vulture 4/4 ↔ LP-Maker, Rebalancer 2/2 ↔ LP-Maker, Arb-Hunter 1/1 swap ↔ LP-Maker, Swing 1/1 ↔ LP-Maker

Deploy a second maker agent at a complementary spread tier (0.5–0.8%) as a fallback; or stagger LP-Maker renewal windows to maintain continuous quote coverage during Cluster transitions

Vulture-Andrew spread floor obsolete — all maker positions uncompetitive

LP-Maker compressed to 0.22–0.35% this cycle (from 1.31% prior run); Vulture's 1% floor creates a 0.65–0.78pp gap on every instrument. Wakes w121–w124 confirmed 0 takeable / 0 mirrorable edges. 7 open maker positions (sAAPL, sMSFT, ETH, BTC, SSV) are all structurally undercut.

Vulture w123 rival quotes at 0.35%; 7 open Vulture intents on book; 4 recent fills all ↔ LP-Maker (taker-side); 0 new maker fills this cycle; badge 'MAKER UNDERCUT, TAKER DRY'

Lower Vulture's 1% spread floor to ≤0.5% to remain competitive, or pivot to pure taker mode — the taker arm is currently the only realistic path to deals while LP-Maker dominates the maker side

Polymarket-Ljuba double-post exit bug — #1711 orphaned and unmonitored

w49 posted #1711 and w50 posted #1754 (identical: 0.085722 sAAPL→24.96 USDC, ~$291/sAAPL) just 1 minute apart. Watcher only monitors #1754 (nextFallbackMin=1407). Intent #1711 is live on the open book (~25m left at analysis time) and could be filled without the agent noticing or accounting for it.

Open book: both #1711 and #1754 visible as Polymarket-Ljuba sAAPL exits; watcher armed on #1754 only; 6.1% historical fill rate means an unmonitored fill is plausible

Add idempotency check before posting any exit intent: query open intents for matching sAAPL sell and skip if one exists; manually cancel #1711 now to avoid untracked fill

Option-Writer option sleeve silent — internal options supply absent

Option-Writer posted 1 ETH call at w1, cancelled at w2, and has posted zero option intents across 3+ subsequent wakes. Stock sleeve is functional (2 recent LP-Maker deals). The entire options ecosystem currently depends on external 0x57F8…B0ff as sole writer — a single-counterparty fragility for Option-Taker.

Option-Writer settled deals are Swap type (LP-Maker + 0xBd6a), not custom option deals; Option-Writer badge 'STOCKS WAIT, NO OPTIONS'; Option-Taker reliableCounterparties=1 (0x57F8 only)

Diagnose why Option-Writer option sleeve stopped after w2 — check if capital is locked in pending stock bids (sNVDA 204.1 / sAAPL 289.7), if there is a re-entry guard blocking option posting, or if the option instrument decoder has an issue

Unfreeze binary market: deploy a bull-binary agent or reprice Bear-Yosher strike to near-spot — 4 consecutive unfilled anchors with zero fleet counterparty

Stacker-Massimo: fix watcher trigger 3 to scan full book at seed time — eliminates structural blind spot on resting LP-Maker sNVDA asks (recurs every cycle until fixed)

Polymarket-Ljuba: add idempotency guard before exit-intent post; cancel orphaned #1711 now

Vulture-Andrew: lower 1% spread floor to ≤0.5% or pivot to pure taker — LP-Maker at 0.22–0.35% makes current maker floor permanently uncompetitive

Option-Writer: diagnose and fix option sleeve silence (0 intents since w2) — check capital lock in stock bids, re-entry guard, or instrument decoder

Better than last run: Stacker-Massimo re-emerged (1 open intent, nextFallbackMin=7 — imminent wake), Option-Taker settled 3 new custom deals with external 0x57F8…B0ff (was 'zero options on book' last cycle), and Rebalancer fired 2 LP-Maker deals suggesting sMSFT-trim or BTC-DCA executed; LP-Maker st

LP-Maker hub concentration: 13/16 recent deals routed through it; 11 open quotes cover BTC/ETH/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT/SSV — ask whether spread compression (0.22–0.35%) held or widened since w140 renewal

Option ecosystem activated: Option-Taker 3 new custom deals with 0x57F8…B0ff (total now 5); Option-Writer shows 2 recent deals (LP-Maker + 0xBd6a) — clarify what instrument 0x57F8 is and whether write

Stacker-Massimo blind-spot recheck: nextFallbackMin=7 means imminent wake; LP-Maker has live sNVDA ask (12 USDC→0.05857 sNVDA, ~$204.77 implied ≤ oracle×1.01) — same criteria Stacker missed at w38

Vulture maker positions structurally uncompetitive: 7 open intents, 3 recent LP-Maker fills — determine whether those 3 fills were taker-side wins or maker positions getting swept at a loss

Arb-Hunter binary surface: HIGH_WATER advancing (1694→1713 at last summary) but 0 binary fills since w219; 1 recent LP-Maker swap deal — swap arm working, binary arm still silent

The 1 recent Arb-Hunter ↔ LP-Maker deal: was this a binary-latency fill or a fallback swap? HIGH_WATER is at 1713 — did any of the 39 scanned intents since w223 come within the 'near-decided' threshold, and is the watcher's id>HIGH_WATER fi

Open intent #1713 (4 USDC→2.666 USDC, 52 min left) is the BTC-below anchor at $65k — with BTC at ~$63,909 (already below strike), is this bet currently in-the-money for bear-yosher and why has no taker stepped up to take the BELOW side that

32nd null cycle: armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0 tokens — is there any new provisioning signal (wallet assignment, config file, env var) since last cycle, or is this still fully undeployed with no action possible?

33rd null cycle: identical dormancy to index-maker — confirm no change and that both sides of the IndexBasket market remain offline with no unilateral action possible.

After w140's Cluster V→W renewal (22 TXs), did the 3 Vulture fills and 2 Rebalancer fills this cycle leave an inventory imbalance requiring a Cluster X refresh, and did the 0.22–0.35% spread hold or did any of the 11 live quotes drift outsi

Deal #154 (BTC below $64k, accepted w96, expired ~15:42 UTC Jun 14): has it settled, and did BTC finishing below $64k mean mimic won? Post-settlement, has mimic scanned for a new binary to mirror or accept — BTC is now at ~$63,909, so new b

Portfolio peaked at $102.20 (SSV ~50%, USDC 42.3%) with gap at 0.69pp at w35 — with nextFallbackMin=508 (~8.5h) and the 20:00 UTC market-close trigger ~4h away, has SSV price moved since w35 and is the hold decision still correct at current

3 new custom deals settled with 0x57F8…B0ff this cycle (total now 5 lifetime) — what instrument/strike did these options cover, did option-taker audit each before taking, and is 0x57F8 the same counterparty as option-writer-matheus's addres

2 recent deals (one with LP-Maker, one with 0xBd6a) and nextFallbackMin=60 with pidAlive=false — have the 0x6b4/0x6b5 sAAPL/sNVDA buy intents settled or expired, and has writer re-armed to post new option sleeve intents this cycle?

Intent #1711 (0.085722 sAAPL→24.96 USDC, 42 min left on book) — Vulture has a competing sAAPL sell open and LP-Maker quotes sAAPL two-sided: has #1711 found a taker, and at $291/sAAPL implied, is the price competitive vs LP-Maker's current

2 recent Rebalancer ↔ LP-Maker deals settled — did these execute the planned sMSFT trim (+1.63pp→USDC) or the BTC DCA (-1.61pp), and what does the current portfolio mix look like relative to target (was zero USDC the constraint)?

nextFallbackMin=7 means Stacker wakes imminently — LP-Maker's live sNVDA ask (12 USDC→0.05857 sNVDA, ~$204.77 implied, 22 min left) passes both Stacker criteria (≤12 USDC, ≤oracle×1.01≈$207.15). Did the watcher fix the blind-spot miss from

1 recent Swing-Nikita ↔ LP-Maker deal settled — did a dislocation threshold finally breach (BTC needs ~$960 more downside from $63,909 to hit -1.5% from 64174.56 baseline), or was this deal posted pre-w36 and just settled now? Current gap i

3 recent Vulture ↔ LP-Maker deals settled while prior summary said all 7 maker positions are structurally uncompetitive (LP spread 0.22–0.35% vs Vulture's 1% floor) — were these 3 fills taker-side wins (vulture taking LP's quotes) or maker

stacker-massimo: imminent wake (nextFallbackMin=7) — verify watcher can see LP-Maker's live sNVDA ask (12 USDC→0.05857, $204.77 implied) that it missed at w38; if same blind-spot persists, patch book-

arb-hunter-tom: investigate watcher's id>HIGH_WATER filter — if it skips existing bets that have drifted near settlement, it misses the entire latency-arb opportunity on bets already posted; HIGH_WATE

bear-yosher #1713 (BTC below $65k, BTC currently $63,909 = ITM for taker) has 52 min left with no taker — surface this to mimic-ljuba or arb-hunter as a near-decided binary either could profit from ac

index-maker/index-taker at 32/33 null cycles: escalate provisioning — no wallet, no config, $0 tokens; IndexBasket market segment fully offline and degrading from 'undeployed' to 'abandoned'

vulture-andrew: clarify whether 3 recent LP-Maker fills were taker wins or maker sweep losses — if maker, the 7 live open intents at 1% floor are burning TTL against LP's 0.22–0.35% spread and should