account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

Summary: Watcher is hardcoded to monitor only bet #414; misses primary targets #32/#89. Prior summary flagged 25-min gap (w54 15:04 → w56 15:29) during take window 15:09–15:39; this run confirms it's structural: source explicitly checks `if (id === "414")` only, not general bet scanning. Agent correctly identified #32/#89 as primary, positioned $91.76 USDC liquid, an

Agent missed bets #32/#89 take window (15:09–15:39) due to hardcoded watcher monitoring only bet #414. Reasoning is sound, positioning was correct ($91.76 USDC held), but watcher design breaks the mission. Realized loss −0.19 USDC over 2 deals; pattern is systemic, not one-time noise.

Wake-script hardcoded to check `if (id === "414")` only (line ~58). Agent identified #32/#89 as primary (w52: 'primary target', w53: 'enter window in ~16min', w54: 'opens imminently'), held $91.76 USDC liquid, but watcher never fired. 25-min gap (w54 15:04 → w56 15:29) matches missed window exactly

Sound and on-mission: correctly ranked #32/#89 primary (near expiry, take window), held liquid USDC for potential fill, evaluated swaps secondary (w51: +52bps fill, w52-w54: too small), waited patiently. Did not re-derive same move; each wake added new information (time-to-window, edge magnitude). Problem is not reasoning—it's that the watcher cannot *execute* it.

Bet #414 in take window (hardcoded check only)

MISSING: General bet monitoring—watcher should loop over ALL intents and check each for expirySecFromNow ≤ 1800s, not hardcode bet #414. Mission is 'take near-d

Reliable bet maker, 2 settled deals with arb-hunter-tom

Posts binary bets, zero recorded interaction; fit unclear

Writes options (not primary binary bets), potential swap fallback

online but Engine 1 paused (6 rejections

Primary swap counterparty (64 lifetime deals); fallback strategy depends on it

OFFLINE 139min (armed=false, no fallback

Posts swaps as fallback surface; timing uncertain (rotates per leadership)

Fades dislocations via swaps; passive, unlikely to overlap arb windows

Bets #32/#89 take window 15:09–15:39 (25 min). Agent had $91.76 USDC liquid and explicitly waited (w52–w54: 'primary target', 'enter in ~16min', 'opens imminently'). Exact PnL unknown without odds, but agent would have attempted fill. Secondary: swap fallback now blocked—lp-maker-matheus (primary counterparty) offline; secondary makers (momentum-nikita, swing-nikita) are thinner and uncertain.

2h fallback is appropriately patient (mission is latency arb, not HFT; 27-min avg gap is reasonable).

CEX-to-oracle divergence check (MAX_DIV_BPS=1000, MIN_CEX_MARGIN_PCT=0.5) correctly guards against feed mismatch.

New intents monitoring (highWaterIntentId logic) allows scalable discovery of new opportunities.

Hardcoded bet #414 check—mission requires scanning ALL binary intents ≤30min expiry, not a fixed set. Line `if (id === "414")` should be replaced with a loop ov

No dynamic target discovery—agent identifies targets (#32/#89) at wake-time; watcher and agent are misaligned. Watcher only knows about #414.

No parameterization—if agent pivots to different bets, watcher requires code edits, not config change.

Replace hardcoded bet-id check with a general loop: `for (const intent of intents) { if (intent.expirySecFromNow > 0 && intent.expirySecFromNow <= NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC) { checkIfTakerInMoney(intent); } }`. This aligns watcher with mission: 'take

Watcher hardcoded to monitor bet #414 only; misses primary targets #32/#89

Wake-script checks `if (id === "414")` exclusively (line ~58 of wake_script_source). Agent correctly identified #32/#89 as primary and positioned $91.76 USDC liquid (w52-w54), but watcher didn't fire during take window 15:09–15:39. 25-min gap (w54 15:04 → w56 15:29) exactly matches missed window. Re

Replace hardcoded bet-id check with a loop over all intents filtered by expirySecFromNow ≤ 1800s. This allows the agent to capture any near-expiry latency arb, matching the stated mission. Review wake-script design: should it read target bet list from agent state, or monitor all near-expiry bets uni

LP-Maker-Matheus offline; arb-hunter-tom's swap fallback is blocked

Primary swap counterparty (lp-maker-matheus: 64 lifetime deals, 75% of rebalancer-lior's fills per Step 1) offline 139min with no fallback (armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null). arb-hunter-tom correctly uses swap edges as fallback when bets aren't ripe (w51: +52bps fill on swap 541), but this fallback

Platform must restore lp-maker-matheus or declare dead and trigger recovery for 6+ dependent agents (Step 1). Until then, arb-hunter-tom's swap fallback strategy is crippled. Escalate to platform SOP.

Agent missed bets #32/#89 take window (15:09–15:39) due to hardcoded watcher monitoring only bet #414. Reasoning is sound, positioning was correct ($91.76 USDC held), but watcher design breaks the mission. Realized loss −0.19 USDC over 2 deals; pattern is systemic, not one-time noise.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

No executable action advances thesis this wake. Bear thesis intact — both assets down net despite recent ripples. Intent

intent 414 resolution OR ETH +1.5% adverse ($1,669) OR new aligned binary OR 4h

Summary: On-mission and correctly patient; crypto-down thesis intact (BTC/ETH down net), tech-basket DCA progressing (sNVDA 12.9 qty, portfolio $95.59). Intent #414 (BinaryBet) open 100+ min with zero takers — mispriced, not rejected. Mimic-Ljuba (intended counterparty) awake but starved of good terms across all binaries (8 wakes, zero takers, 3pp floor unmet). Root

Intent #414 open 100+ min, zero takers. Not Mimic-Ljuba's rejection — it's awake but unmet terms. Bear-yosher's ask exceeds Mimic-Ljuba's 3pp floor. Recommend widening margin to attract the primary counterparty, or re-assess at 4h fallback (deadline 10:17 UTC).

Intent #414 (BinaryBet, crypto-down) open 100+ min. Mimic-Ljuba (target counterparty for binaries, 'accept winnable open bets') awake with 8 wakes, zero takers across all binaries — indicates 3pp min-profit floor unmet. Bear-yosher's ask price tighter than market will bear.

Sound and on-mission. Crypto-down thesis expressed via binary bet posting + DCA tech basket. Disciplined gate: takerInMoneyNow=false hard-filters bad entries (w14: 'no aligned binary'). Portfolio tracking quantitative. Recent wakes distinct: w13 thesis check → maintain Intent #414; w14 DCA slice (no take opportunity); w15 thesis check, no new action. Not re-deriving — correctly waiting for takers

Intent #414 resolution (fill/expiry) — deadline ~10:17 UTC 2026-06-10

ETH +1.5% adverse ($1,653.25 → $1,669) — thesis invalidation gate

New aligned BinaryBet with takerInMoneyNow=true

4h fallback (re-assess portfolio and book state)

Mission: 'accept winnable open bets, re-priced to live oracle.' Designed for binary-bet taking. Same crypto-down conviction.

awake (8 wakes) but starved (zero takers

Takes 'near-decided binaries.' Fit if Intent #414 is close to strike, but mission is 'pick off other bots' mistakes' — suggests distressed/d

Takes 'near-decided binary bets' (latency arb focus). Fit if Intent #414 is near decision point, but primary focus is fast execution, not fo

watcher firing gap noted in Step 1 (25-m

Mission: 'value against Polymarket implied distribution.' Trades Polymarket pairs, not on-chain binaries directly.

none. Recent wakes show engine 1 filtered for takerInMoneyNow=false and found zero aligned binaries (w14). Discipline, not miss. No unexecuted DCA or swap slices evident.

4h fallback covers patient re-assessment without dormancy (appropriate for bet-poster + DCA rhythm)

Wakes on Intent #414 resolution — essential if intent fills or expires

Wakes on ETH +1.5% adverse — thesis invalidation gate; correctly <2% hard-halt but re-assess early

Wakes on new aligned binary — opportunity detection for taker side

120s poll cadence — not aggressive; reasonable for patient agent

Explicit expiry-time tracking for Intent #414 (expires ~10:17 UTC 2026-06-10); 4h fallback may fire after expiry if next wake after 10:17 is deferred

No waking on 'Mimic-Ljuba posted a new offer' or counterparty-specific events (platform limitation, not agent fault)

Add explicit expiry check: if Intent #414 expiry_time < now + 2h, fire wake immediately instead of waiting for 4h fallback. Ensures agent re-assesses before intent lapses. Fallback remains for other triggers (ETH move, new binary). Cost: on

Intent #414 mispriced; ask exceeds counterparty floor

Intent #414 open 100+ min (since ~12:30 UTC), zero takers. Mimic-Ljuba awake and searching (8 wakes) but unmet 3pp floor across all binaries. Bear-yosher's profit ask likely 1–2pp tighter than Mimic-Ljuba will accept. Taker-first mission requires attractive pricing.

Check Polymarket implied odds for the same strike/expiry. Re-post Intent #414 with 3–4pp margin (meet or beat Mimic-Ljuba's floor). If thesis is weak, consider reducing ask further or posting smaller size. Monitor Mimic-Ljuba's next wake for response.

Intent #414 expiry risk — fallback may fire after deadline

Intent #414 expires ~10:17 UTC 2026-06-10 (36h from now). 4h fallback will fire, but if the next wake slot is delayed by network/queue, the intent may lapse without re-assessment. No explicit expiry waking.

Add explicit check in wake-script: if Intent #414 expiry_time < now + 120min, fire wake immediately. Ensures re-assessment 2h before expiry, not 4h after. One-line guard in poll loop.

Intent #414 open 100+ min, zero takers. Not Mimic-Ljuba's rejection — it's awake but unmet terms. Bear-yosher's ask exceeds Mimic-Ljuba's 3pp floor. Recommend widening margin to attract the primary counterparty, or re-assess at 4h fallback (deadline 10:17 UTC).

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: Never woken (wakes=0, last_wake_min_ago=null); watcher not armed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Wake-script source not provided — can't diagnose misconfiguration vs. non-deployment. First analysis. Counterparty index-taker is also offline (roster health=unknown), creating a dead two-agent pair.

index-maker has never executed (0 wakes, 0 tokens) because its watcher is not armed. Wake-script source not provided, blocking diagnosis of whether the watcher was misconfigured or the agent never deployed. Secondary blocker: counterparty index-taker is offline, so even if restored, no taker exists. Immediate: return wake-script source and diagnose.

index-taker offline (roster: health=unknown, no metrics); primary blocker is index-maker's watcher not armed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null).

Mission is clear (publish LONG IndexBasket intents), but can't assess decision quality or watcher fit without wake-script source or recent wakes.

MISSING: wake-script source not provided — can't determine what should trigger wakes

Sole counterparty — takes SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents; perfect market pair

offline (roster: health=unknown, inferre

Unmeasurable — agent never woken, no intents posted, no order-book visibility.

Watcher not armed (armed=false); no fallback scheduled; process not alive

Return wake-script source in analysis data. Diagnose whether watcher was misconfigured (wrong trigger/cadence/threshold) or agent never deployed. If deployed on platform, re-arm with 15-min fallback (stacker-massimo recovery pattern) and pa

Watcher not armed; never woken

index-maker: wakes=0, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. No recovery mechanism. Wake-script source not provided prevents diagnosis of misconfiguration.

Provide wake-script source. Diagnose whether watcher trigger/cadence/threshold was misconfigured or agent never deployed. If deployed, re-arm with 15+ min cadence and fallback.

Analysis data missing wake-script source for index-maker

wake_script_source=null. Other agents (lp-maker-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita) have source; index-maker does not. Blocks watcher diagnosis.

Include wake-script source for all agents in returned analysis data.

Dead two-agent pair: index-maker ⇄ index-taker

Both offline. index-maker never woken; index-taker (roster: health=unknown, inferred not running). No IndexBasket market can form.

Restore or declare both. If restoring, coordinate wakeups and ensure both have independent fallbacks to prevent re-death.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: UNDEPLOYED: armed=false, pidAlive=false, no watcher script loaded. Zero wakes lifetime. Structurally depends on index-maker (also health=unknown, offline). This is a platform initialization/deployment issue, not a market starvation problem — no basis to judge agent reasoning yet.

index-taker has never woken (0 wakes, 0 deals). No watcher process running (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Wake-script source is null — agent not deployed. Paired with index-maker (also offline), this market cannot form until both agents are initialized.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes lifetime. No agent process or watcher deployed.

Cannot assess — agent never woken. No wake-script to review.

MISSING: No watcher script loaded. Agent not deployed.

Publishes LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker takes SHORT side. The market depends on this pairing.

Unmeasurable: agent never woken, cannot observe the order book or index-maker intents.

No watcher script loaded or deployed
Agent process not running
No fallback recovery mechanism

Deploy the agent and load the watcher script. Define a trigger that fires when index-maker publishes a LONG IndexBasket intent (or poll index-maker's intent feed with a reasonable cadence, e.g., 5–10 min). The mission is 'never blind', so t

Agent not deployed / not initialized

index-taker has no running process (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null) and no watcher script loaded (wake_script_source=null). Zero wakes lifetime. Compare to stacker-massimo (recovered after crash with 15-min fallback) — index-taker has never started.

Deploy the agent and load its watcher script. Ensure the watcher listens for new LONG IndexBasket intents from index-maker or polls at a reasonable interval. The agent logic is ready; this is a platform deployment task.

Paired dependency on undeployed index-maker

index-taker's market cannot form without index-maker publishing LONG intents. index-maker is also offline (health=unknown, no wakes, no deals visible). Deploying one without the other leaves both stuck.

Deploy both index-maker and index-taker together as a pair. Verify index-maker's watcher fires and posts intents before declaring index-taker healthy.

index-taker has never woken (0 wakes, 0 deals). No watcher process running (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Wake-script source is null — agent not deployed. Paired with index-maker (also offline), this market cannot form until both agents are initialized.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Two-sided depth mission-critical: expired phantom quotes = loss of fillable book. Oracle mids stable (no volTerm). Inven

quote expiry (~45 min), oracle breach (±15–50 bps), or new fillable intent

Summary: Agent was healthy and reasoning sharply through w44 (17:19 UTC, portfolio +$29.42, 64 deals lifetime). Watcher process dead since w44; platform failed to respawn. 60-min fallback should have fired at 18:19 UTC but didn't — 141 min offline as of now. Critical: LP-Maker is the primary counterparty for rebalancer-lior (75% of its fills, 6/8) and vulture-andrew

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher process dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 141 min offline since w44 17:19 UTC) with no respawn fallback. The 60-min wake-script fallback should have fired at 18:19 UTC but didn't — platform respawn mechanism failed. Critical: this agent supplies 75% of rebalancer-lior's fills (6/8) and 46% of vulture-andrew's (13/28); 6+ agents will cascade when market reopens without restoration.

Watcher dead 141 min (last wake w44 at 17:19 UTC). Armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. 60-min fallback in wake-script should have fired at ~18:19 UTC; platform respawn mechanism failed. Dependent agents: rebalancer-lior (6/8 fills, 75%), vulture-andrew (13/28 fills, 46%), swing-nikita

Sound. Agent reasoning in w38–w44 was sharp and on-mission: respecting oracle data ("Oracle mids stable"), managing quote expiry risk (w40: "expired quotes = phantom depth + lost fills"), monitoring depth criticality (w43–w44: "missing ask quotes = phantom depth risk"), rebalancing critical shorts from settlements. Not churning; responding thoughtfully to market data and inventory state. Issue is

New fillable swap intent (canFill checks HOLD: USDC, BTC, ETH, SSV, sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT)

Fallback: 60 min (should have fired at 18:19 UTC; platform respawn failed)

MISSING: Hard-restart mechanism for dead watchers (pidAlive=false for >N min should trigger platform respawn)

6/8 fills (75%) — LP-Maker is its primary counterparty for DCA slices; now starved

13/28 fills (46%) — highest counterparty by count; LP-Maker filled nearly half its deals

3 deals — margin taker in dislocation fades; LP-Maker provided fills

2 deals — conservative sNVDA accumulator; LP-Maker provided swaps

1 deal — value arb on options/binaries; lower frequency, less dependent

Unmeasurable — watcher dead, cannot see post-w44 order book flow. However, w44 shows 10 quotes live (expires ~17:06–18:05 UTC), and w44 logs indicate cancelled quotes (595 sNVDA bid expired, 597 sMSFT bid 14s to expiry). Likely missed fills on critical rebalancing intents (intent 599 ETH, intent 583 sAAPL mentioned as mission-critical in w42). Without agent online, cannot quantify lost opportunity

Watches quote expiry (~45 min), oracle breach (±15–50 bps), new fillable intents — all mission-critical triggers

canFill logic respects HOLD set (USDC, BTC, ETH, SSV, sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT) — on-mission inventory; won't chase unrelated tokens

60-min fallback provided for patience between triggers; deterministic, zero-LLM

Only fires on NEW fillable intents, not 'book non-empty' — prevents phantom wakes on stale flow

Fallback too long (60 min) for mission-critical agent facing 18h market closure; Stacker-Massimo has 15-min fallback; consider parity

No hard-restart mechanism if watcher process dies — fallback can't fire if pidAlive=false

Doesn't account for market-hours / closure scenarios; single fallback is brittle over long downtimes

Tighten fallback to 15 min (parity with Stacker-Massimo) and add market-hours check. **PRIMARY FIX (scope: core)**: Platform must implement hard-restart for dead watchers — if watcher.pidAlive=false for >5 min, respawn immediately. The wake

Watcher process dead; platform respawn mechanism failed

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher offline 141 min (since w44 17:19 UTC). Armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. 60-min fallback in wake-script should have fired at ~18:19 UTC but didn't. Platform's respawn hook or fallback invocation is broken. Cascading impact: 6+ dependent agents (rebalancer-li

Immediate: Restore watcher process or trigger manual restart. Long-term: Implement hard-restart mechanism — if watcher.pidAlive=false for >5 min, platform respawns automatically. Do not rely solely on wake-script fallback for mission-critical agents.

Fallback cadence too long for mission-critical agent in market closure

60-min fallback is reasonable for continuous markets but insufficient for long closures. Market is down ~18h until 13:30 UTC; Stacker-Massimo (similar mission-critical agent) has 15-min fallback and recovered normally after w12 crash. LP-Maker's 60-min fallback lacks margin for safety.

Reduce fallback to 15 min (parity with Stacker-Massimo) and add market-hours check to handle known closures gracefully. Pair with platform hard-restart as primary safety net.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Taker edge −30pp on #414 does not meet 3pp floor. One deliberate move + edge floor rules. No new high-edge flow. Holding

new BinaryBet appears OR #414 expiry (~17.1h) OR 60 min fallback

Summary: Prior run flagged 8 wakes (w10–w17) with edge floor unmet; pattern persists through w20. Three new wakes (w18–w20) show identical refusal: sole bet #414 at −25 to −35pp vs 3pp floor. Watcher re-armed (50-min fallback). No new deals. Root cause: binary supply thin / mispriced vs taker criteria. Discipline sound; question is whether 3pp floor is too strict for

Edge floor (3pp) appears too strict for current binary supply. Sole resting bet #414 at −30pp leaves agent idle despite $98.29 USDC available. 2 settled deals from 20 wakes (10% hit rate) confirms low deal frequency under current conditions. Refusal of negative-edge trades is disciplined, but market may require floor adjustment (2pp or lower) for participation.

Bear-yosher (sole binary maker) posting #414 at −25 to −35pp; mimic-ljuba's 3pp floor unachievable. No taker flow on #414 in 100+ min (Step 1). Mismatch between maker pricing and taker edge expectations; not agent error.

Sound. Agent evaluates new bets against edge floor, skips churn on thin/negative-edge trades. Mission is taker (accept winnable bets), not churn for volume. Refusal of −30pp is correct discipline, not a bug. No re-posting waste or thrashing detected.

New BinaryBet detected (template hash match via baseline tracking)

Intent #414 expiry window (~5 min before, ~17.1h away per script)

60-min fallback (deterministic, zero-LLM, ensures wake without market activity)

MISSING: quote-change trigger (won't wake if #414 improves; depends on 60-min fallback)

1 settled BinaryBet deal proves working relationship; both takers/arbs.

Sole resting binary maker. Posts #414 at −30pp (unacceptable). Alignment possible if maker reprices toward 3pp+.

awake (intents posted, #414 open 100+ mi

Also a taker (hunts mispriced bets); compete on same deals, unlikely to trade with each other.

None: sole bet #414 at −30pp is correctly refused (edge floor unmet). No other binary bets visible during w13–w20 window.

Fires on new BinaryBet (canonical taker event—new thing to evaluate)

Baseline tracking via seenIntentIds prevents re-firing same bet

60-min fallback is deterministic, zero-LLM (no LLM loop risk)

Expiry-window logic for #414 valid (board-reset use case, intent will auto-expire)

No quote-change trigger (if #414 improves, agent waits for 60-min fallback to re-evaluate)

Hardcoded #414 expiry (brittle after intent settles; logic becomes dead code)

Remove hardcoded #414 expiry (intent will auto-settle by board). Keep 60-min fallback and new-BinaryBet trigger—this baseline is sound for thin-market taker (quote moves are sparse). Current watcher does not need quote-change trigger unless

Edge floor (3pp) too conservative for thin binary supply

Sole resting bet at −30pp; 20 wakes yielded 2 settled deals (10% hit rate). Agent holding $98.29 USDC deployed for copy-trading but unable to enter due to edge floor. Discipline prevents churn, but also prevents market participation.

Decide: hold 3pp line (accept idle periods) or lower floor (2pp, 1pp, 0pp) for market participation. Current policy is defensible if goal is avoid negative-edge trades; low deal frequency is consequence, not bug. Recommend measure deal PnL across floor levels (backtest or simulation) to optimize.

Binary bet supply misaligned with taker edge expectations

Bear-yosher (sole maker) pricing #414 at −30pp; intent open 100+ min with zero takers (Step 1). Suggests maker's oracle or valuation differs from taker consensus (mimic-ljuba, likely vulture-andrew).

Investigate bear-yosher's pricing logic (oracle stale? valuation off?). If structural, consider binary-market design (fee structure, listing incentives, oracle selection) to improve maker/taker price convergence.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Declining tape with no leadership. 75% USDC dry powder is healthy. Edge threshold designed to avoid noise; best gap is 0

>3% crypto move (BTC/ETH/SSV) or 4h fallback

Summary: Correctly idle 256 min during flat market (confirmed <1pp gaps, <3% moves across w1–w6); watcher armed, pidAlive=true, fallback fires in 193 min. Prior summary validated: edge threshold unmet on all wakes (best gap <1pp, all crypto declining together). No churn. CRITICAL ISSUE: wake-script is a stub — it does not actually read or compare prices to thresholds

Agent's mission (hunt >3% movers) is sound and correctly disciplined during flat market (256 min, 5 repeat wakes confirm no false positives). However, wake-script does not detect its own signal — it only fires on the 4-hour fallback, not on price moves. This is a core/SDK implementation bug, not agent reasoning. One loss (-0.66 USD on 1 deal) requires more data to diagnose (timing vs signal).

Market is flat: BTC/ETH moves <1pp, <3% each across w1–w6 (06-08T17:47 through 06-09T15:24). All crypto declining together. Agent correctly rejects signal w2–w5 (no repeat-wake churn). No trades possible until volatility arrives. This is correct market-structural behavior, NOT agent fault.

Sound. Agent correctly applies its edge threshold (>3% move) and avoids noise in a declining, low-dispersion tape. Re-checks w2–w5 show disciplined, low-churn logic. Does not re-derive same move. However, reasoning is only half the problem: the agent can't *detect* the signal it's waiting for (see wakeScript issue below).

4-hour fallback (every 4h, currently armed with 193 min remaining)

MISSING: >3% price move on BTC/ETH/SSV (the primary signal) — script does not read or compare prices; it only logs 'polling' and waits for fallback

Primary swap counterparty for momentum agent; but OFFLINE (confirmed dead, armed=false, no fallback per Step 1)

OFFLINE — 139 min ago, no recovery mecha

Also takes swaps, but DCA-focused (patient slice per wake); may accept momentum trades incidentally

UNKNOWN (not flagged in Step 1 fleet sta

None detected during flat period. Agent correctly rejected all wakes w2–w6 (edge threshold unmet). However, if a >3% move occurred *between* wakes (e.g., mid-interval), agent would miss it because watcher only checks on 4-hour fallback, not continuously. Unmeasurable until watcher is fixed.

Threshold logic is sound: 3% baseline moves (BTC/ETH/SSV) are sensible for 'strongest mover' detection

Fallback (4h) is reasonable cadence for patient momentum hunter; not sub-minute polling

Baseline prices are set on first wake (w1), simple and reproducible

Script does not read prices or compare them to thresholds. Implementation is a stub: `console.log("polling...")` in a loop that never exits. No price oracle rea

Agent can ONLY wake on the 4-hour fallback (every 26 min via fallback cycle?), never on the actual price signal. Defeats the entire mission.

No exit or price-check logic in the watcher loop; it will fire the fallback, but the agent's wake script (wake.ts) is responsible for price logic — needs inspec

Implement actual price-checking in wake-script.ts (called at each wake): fetch current BTC/ETH/SSV prices from oracle contract, compare to baseline thresholds, set a flag or emit a signal if any move >3%. Do NOT block watcher on this; let w

Wake-script stub does not implement price-checking

momentum-nikita's wake-script reads `runWatchLoop()` but never executes price reads or threshold comparisons. The loop just logs 'polling...' and waits for the fallback. Agent can ONLY wake on the 4-hour fallback, not on the >3% price signal it's designed for. This is a blocker for the agent's missi

Move price-fetch and comparison logic into the agent's wake.ts (triggered on each fallback fire). Keep wake-script as a pure scheduler (no price reads in the watcher loop). Alternatively, implement actual price reads in runWatchLoop (if the SDK intends watcher to be price-aware), but current stub pa

Primary swap counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus) offline with no fallback

LP-Maker-Matheus is confirmed dead (armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null) and offline 139 min. Momentum-nikita has 0 reliable counterparties for swaps. If momentum-nikita wakes with a real signal (after watcher is fixed), it will have no counterparty to trade with.

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus or declare dead and direct momentum-nikita to fallback counterparty (rebalancer-lior, or on-chain swap). This is a fleet-level routing issue, not agent-specific.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: Starvation persists (w8 at 19:29, 5h 30m+ zero options). Watcher correctly armed with 2h fallback, fires on new-intent or timeout at ~90min cadence. Agent logic sound: awaits supply with zero churn. Sole counterparty (option-writer-matheus Engine 1) remains paused post-6-rejection. Root cause is supply crisis, not agent fault; no agent-side fix until writer

Agent functioning correctly: zero fills across 8 wakes because zero options posted to book. Root cause is counterparty starvation — option-writer-matheus Engine 1 offline 5h 30m+ with no recovery. Recommend fleet escalation: monitor writer SLA; if offline >2h more, trigger sourcing decision (alt writers or cancel mission).

Option-writer-matheus Engine 1 paused post-6-rejection; zero audited options (templateHash 0xcd5689c...) posted across all 8 wakes (w1 09:05 → w8 19:29). Sole supplier offline, no fallback writers in fleet roster.

Sound. Agent correctly implements selective buyer logic: scans for audited options, awaits supply with zero logic churn, watcher fires on new-intent or 2h timeout. Problem is supply, not reasoning — can't buy what isn't written.

New audited Option intent (templateHash 0xcd5689c...) appears on book

2h fallback timeout (observed ~90min cadence)

MISSING: fallback to alternative sources (polymarket, external writers) if sole writer stays offline >2h

Sole audited option writer in fleet; mission exactly fits taker's demand.

PAUSED — Engine 1 offline post-6-rejecti

None — zero audited options posted to book across all 8 wakes. Watcher has clear visibility (calls readOpenIntents, filters by templateHash). Not a visibility/timing issue; supply is exhausted.

Scans for audited Option template (0xcd5689c...) — ensures only legitimate counterparty

2h fallback cadence (~90min observed avg_gap) — patient for selective buyer, doesn't thrash empty book

Fires on new-intent detection via newMatches() — responsive to supply event

Zero logic churn while waiting — correctly idle when starved

No change to watcher logic (correctly reasoned). Recommend fleet action: if option-writer-matheus Engine 1 stays offline >2h, escalate to sourcing decision (alt writers, polymarket backfill, or cancel taker mission until supply returns).

Option supply exhaustion — sole writer paused, three agents blocked

option-writer-matheus Engine 1 offline 5h 30m+ (no options posted w1–w8). Blocks: option-taker-matheus (8 wakes, 0 fills), polymarket-ljuba (zero to value), and constrains rebalancer-lior (swap liquidity depends on derivatives ecosystem health). One writer's pause cascades.

Writer SLA escalation: if offline >2h, decide: (a) force-resume writer, (b) source options from polymarket or external feed, or (c) park taker/polymarket agents until supply returns. Do not leave three agents in zombie state indefinitely.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Rotation execution is in flight. Intent 528 filled as expected (sMSFT exit complete). Intents 530/533 expiring soon (~12

Market close signal (19:50 UTC) or hard fallback (23:00 UTC)

Summary: Engine 1 (options) correctly paused w21 after 6 consecutive rejections. Engine 2 (portfolio rotation) posted 3 swaps w23 at oracle-mid: intent 528 filled vs Bear-Yosher (sMSFT exit), but 530/533 expired unfilled w25. Root cause is structural—LP-Maker-Matheus offline (armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null) eliminated primary counterparty. Swaps were fairly priced

ENGINE 1 PAUSED; E2 BLOCKED BY LP OUTAGE

13 settled deals, -2.56 USD realized PnL. Engine 1 pause after 6 rejections is disciplined (don't burn premium on unfillables). Rotation swaps 530/533 expired unfilled w25 due to LP offline—not pricing (528 filled at same oracle-mid proves it). Intents are permanently lost (already expired), not cached. Agent awaits market-close w27 to rerank and post fresh rotation swaps once LP restarts.

LP-Maker-Matheus armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null (Step 1: 64 lifetime deals, 75% of swap ecosystem, primary counterparty for all DCA/swap agents). Intent 528 filled proving oracle-mid pricing fair; 530/533 expired before LP could fill, book depth insufficient without LP. No alternative swap counte

Sound. Engine 1 pause after 6 rejections is disciplined decision-making (mission: sell overpriced options, not burn premium on unkillable offers). Engine 2 rotation at oracle-mid is correct fill-attracting strategy. w25 assessment accurate: 'rotation swaps failed not due to pricing but likely market depth'—correctly identified LP absence. w26 hold instead of churn-repost demonstrates market-aware

19:50 UTC (market close) for daily worst-2 reranking and rotation execution

No book monitoring—correct for this agent (Engine 1 paused, no open intents; time-based daily rhythm is appropriate for contrarian + options mission)

Only reliable swap counterparty at oracle-mid spreads; 528 filled vs LP confirms

Took 528; directional conviction bet (crypto down) could overlap rotation swaps, but no sustained flow

DCA swap appetite matches rotation rhythm, but 75% of its fills come via LP—starved without it

Options buyer; Engine 1 paused anyway (not posting options)

starved (zero options, 7 wakes, 5h 20m p

None. Intents 530/533 expired; agent correctly did not repost (w26 logic: 'repricing intra-day is churn; final move at market close locks conviction'). No alternative counterparties at scale. Awaiting market close to rerank fresh.

19:50 UTC (market close) trigger is ideal for daily contrarian reranking—matches mission rhythm and avoids intra-day churn

23:00 UTC fallback (200 min / 3h 20m) is patient, appropriate for portfolio agent

Zero order monitoring is correct (Engine 1 paused, no open intents; no book dependency for time-based close)

None for w26→27. Post-LP-restart (w27+): when agent wakes at market close, its normal rank-performance flow will check for drift and post fresh rotation swaps. No special case needed—the daily rhythm handles LP recovery gracefully.

LP offline cascade prevents rotation fills

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 139 min (armed=false, no fallback). Step 1: 6+ agents depend on it; cascade risk when market reopens. Intents 530/533 expired w25 waiting for LP that never came.

Core must restore LP or declare dead before 13:30 UTC market open. Agents should gracefully degrade to thinner counterparties or hold if LP unavailable.

Engine 1 paused awaiting option demand recovery

Engine 1 (options writing, 70% of mission) paused w21 after 6 consecutive rejections across premium/ATM/cheap/long/short combos. Paused state is correct; no fault. Recovery depends on option-taker-matheus waking and posting demand.

Monitor option-taker-matheus. If starved >8h (currently 5h 20m per Step 1), escalate to core—taker may be offline or the Option judge contract has a bug.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL well-positioned mid-hold within weekly distribution. Edge erosion expected; po

sAAPL hits stop/forward, new takeable bet, or June 10 18:00 UTC fallback

Summary: Posted 2 sAAPL swaps with strong edges (4.18%, 5.17%) in w7–w8 (intents #583, #601); both remain unfilled due to LP-Maker-Matheus offline (Step 1 blocker, 139 min, no fallback). Last 4 wakes (w9–w12) found zero mispriced bet opportunities and correctly held sAAPL at 25% per-asset cap. Wake script monitors price targets and new bet posts but lacks logic to re

Agent is sound and on-mission: 2 settled deals, correct sizing discipline (25% per-asset cap), active bet-hunting w/ no churn. Intents #583, #601 unfilled due to counterparty-starved (LP offline), not agent error. Root issue: wake script doesn't monitor own posted intents for expiry or recovery triggers—intents won't auto-refire on LP restart without manual re-publish.

Intents #583 (w7, 25 USDC for 0.085722 sAAPL) and #601 (w8, 18.75 USDC for 0.064902 sAAPL) posted 3h55m and 2h49m ago, unfilled. Primary counterparty LP-Maker-Matheus offline 139 min per Step 1, confirmed dead, no alternative swap-taker visible. Intents resting pending; agent doesn't check if counte

Sound and on-mission. Posted swaps when no mispriced bets existed (w7–w8 edges 4–5% > 3% entry threshold). Sized correctly: w7 $25 (25% of $99.99) + w8 $18.75 (25% of remaining $75 equity) = $43.75, within 25% per-asset cap and <70% directional cap. Then correctly held and searched for new opportunities w9–w12 with no re-posting churn. Each wake evaluates fresh opportunities (w9–w12: 'no takeable

sAAPL price hits stop $277.34 (−4% from entry $290.62) or forward $303.75

New takeable bet/option posted (filters swap, own posts)

June 10 18:00 UTC fallback (~22h remaining, 1382 min)

MISSING: own posted intent age/expiry check (would detect #583/#601 stale or counterparty-down scenario)

Market maker; filled 1 swap (settled deal #1). Intents #583, #601 awaiting its take.

OFFLINE (139 min, no fallback) — confirm

Bet-copy trader; filled 1 binary bet (settled deal #2). Could take future bets, unlikely on swaps.

Takes mispriced intents; could fill swaps if rates align.

None detected in wakes w9–w12. Agent actively polled 4 times, found zero mispriced bets ('no takeable bet edge', 'no mispriced opportunities'). Fallback to 60s polling cadence appropriate. Watcher visibility into full book unmeasured—cannot confirm if all posted bets were visible.

Price triggers (stop/forward) tie to position thesis — exits if conviction breaks

60s polling cadence matches selective bet-trader cadence (not high-frequency, no token churn)

Fallback deadline ensures wake even if nothing triggers

Zero-LLM, deterministic checks (price, new intents) avoid token waste

Filters correctly: ignores own posts, ignores swaps, looks only for bets/options

No check of own posted intents (#583, #601) for expiry, validity, or stale-edge conditions

No re-fire on counterparty recovery (if LP comes back, intents sit pending forever)

No logic to cancel/republish if sAAPL price drifts and edge no longer exists

Add periodic check: read own open intents, filter by symbol (sAAPL), evaluate age (>2h?) and current edge (still >3%?). If counterparty-down (LP offline) but edge valid, flag for re-post on recovery. If edge eroded, cancel. Tie to price-mov

Wake script blind to own posted intent lifecycle

Intents #583, #601 unfilled for 3h55m and 2h49m. Agent doesn't check if they've expired, been matched, or remain on-mission given new price/edge info. On LP recovery, no re-fire logic—intents stay pending until fallback deadline (June 10 18:00 UTC), losing ~22 hours of potential fill time.

Add state check in main loop: readOpenIntents(), filter by own address, eval each intent's age/edge/counterparty-status. Re-post if edge valid+counterparty up, cancel if stale or counterparty dead. Integrate with price/deadline fallback triggers.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

#631 was favorable take (underweight leg at ≤ oracle per mission); must take before posting own. sAAPL most underweight;

intent #645 resolves (filled/expired), or stocks market close 20:00 UTC

Summary: Patient DCA executing correctly during market closure: dormant w13–w17 (respecting stock hours 13:30–20:00 UTC), took external intent #631 when available. Critical blocker confirmed: LP-Maker-Matheus (75% of 8 prior deals, primary counterparty) now offline (armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null) with zero recovery mechanism. When market reopens 13:30 UTC (~9h aw

Agent reasoning is sound and patient; mission stalled by platform failure — LP-Maker-Matheus (75% of 8 settled deals, primary liquidity) is now offline (armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null) with no fallback. At market open 13:30 UTC, rebalancer-lior will post DCA intents to a starved book with only 0xBd6a…9863 (25%, status unknown) as backup. Counterparty starvation at fleet level; core must restore or declare dead.

LP-Maker-Matheus: 6/8 settled deals (75%), now offline per fleet (armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null). 0xBd6a…9863: 2/8 (25%), status unknown. No alternative liquidity emerged during w13–w17 (market-closed dormancy). Agent correctly quiescent; market-gated, not agent failure.

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly interprets stock market hours constraint (13:30–20:00 UTC), dormant when market closed (w13–w17), posts DCA intents for underweight positions (w11 ETH, w12 sAAPL at -15pp), takes external opportunity when available (w18: intent #631, underweight). Not churn; disciplined patience with smart interim actions. Recognizes BTC/ETH near-target, no edge on book (w15)

Intent #645 resolution (monitors its own DCA fill; reference appears stale — w12/w18 reference #500, #631)

Stocks market close at 20:00 UTC (cue to consolidate during market-closed hours)

30-min fallback (ensures periodic wake during closure, avoids infinite sleep)

MISSING: Explicit wake at stocks market OPEN 13:30 UTC (currently relies on fallback; up-to-30-min delay on market open)

Settled 6/8 deals (75%); primary liquidity source for DCA swaps — critical dependency

OFFLINE — armed=false, nextFallbackMin=n

Settled 2/8 deals (25%); external counterparty; thin backup if LP-Matheus gone

Unknown; EOA or external protocol; no re

28 settled deals suggests active liquidity; could take rebalancer-lior DCA intents if mispriced

Unknown; no recent cross-activity; missi

Could provide IndexBasket swaps for diversified DCA if rebalancer-lior pivots

Unknown health; no recent cross-activity

None evident. Agent took intent #631 (w18, favorable underweight position). w13–w17: market-closed dormancy; no external swaps posted. BTC/ETH near-target per w15, no edge on book. Correctly patient and on-mission.

Monitors intent resolution (knows its DCA posts may fill during market hours)

Respects stock market hours (fires on close 20:00 UTC as signal to consolidate during closure)

30-min fallback prevents infinite sleep during long market-closed window (22:00–13:30 UTC)

No explicit wake trigger for stocks market OPEN 13:30 UTC — relies on 30-min fallback, introducing up-to-30-min resume delay

Intent #645 reference stale — recent wakes reference #500, #631; script should track current active intent or drop reference

Highest value: add explicit wake at stocks market OPEN (13:30 UTC) instead of relying on 30-min fallback. Ensures agent wakes exactly when it can resume DCA trading, eliminating delay. Secondary: update intent reference to current active DC

LP-Maker-Matheus offline: 75% of rebalancer-lior liquidity source now dead, no recovery

LP-Maker-Matheus settled 6/8 rebalancer-lior deals (75% of fills). Per fleet status: now offline (armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null), no fallback, confirmed dead. When market reopens 13:30 UTC (~9h away), rebalancer-lior will attempt DCA posts with only 0xBd6a…9863 (25%, status unknown) as backup. C

URGENT before market open: (1) restore LP-Maker-Matheus, (2) declare officially dead and wind down dependent agents, or (3) surface alternative liquidity bridge (index-maker, option-writer-matheus, polymarket-ljuba). Without action, entire DCA/swap market stalls at 13:30 UTC.

Wake-script missing explicit market-open trigger; up-to-30-min resume delay

Script arms 30-min fallback and exits on intent resolution or market close. During ~15.5h market-closure window (20:00 UTC to 13:30 UTC next day), agent may not wake until fallback fires, delaying DCA resumption by up to 30 min after market opens.

Add explicit fallback arm for stocks market open 13:30 UTC (calculate milliseconds to that time, cap it if market already open). Ensures immediate wake at market boundary without polling delay.

Stale intent reference in wake-script (intent #645 vs. current #500, #631)

Script hardcodes `const INTENT_ID = "645"` and monitors its resolution, but recent wakes w12 and w18 reference intents #500 and #631. Script likely stale relative to agent's current DCA strategy.

Fetch current active DCA intent ID from agent state (or CLAUDE.md intent tracking) instead of hardcoding. Or remove intent monitoring if agent strategy no longer depends on tracking a single post.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Limit bid is tracking oracle correctly. No refresh needed. No sweepable opportunity. Waiting for natural condition trigg

intent 654 resolves, oracle drifts >0.5% from $206.67, sweepable sNVDA appears, or 30-min fallback

Summary: Watcher recovered from w12 crash (now armed=true, nextFallbackMin=13). DCA strategy is sound: posting limit bids at oracle×0.99, refreshing on >0.5% drift, opportunistically hunting sweepable sNVDA. However, sole counterparty LP-Maker-Matheus (100% of 2 settled deals) is now OFFLINE (armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 139+ min down). Intent 654 has zero take

Stacker-Massimo is healthy and well-reasoned, but intent 654 will not fill while LP-Maker-Matheus is offline. 2 deals settled (both LP-Maker), 0 other active counterparties. Success depends entirely on LP-Maker recovery.

Intent 654 open 18+ min, zero fills. Settled: 2 deals (both LP-Maker-Matheus). LP-Maker-Matheus: armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null, confirmed offline 139+ min. No alternate swap makers available.

Sound DCA logic: oracle drift detection (0.5% threshold correct), refresh protocol keeps bait fresh, sweepable sNVDA check opportunistic, 30-min fallback patient. Solving the right mission for a normal market. However, agent is blind to counterparty health — it posts attractive bids unaware its sole taker is dead. Reasoning is correct; market context failed underneath.

intent 654 resolves (when taker appears or LP returns)

oracle drifts >0.5% from $206.67 (tracking correctly)

sweepable sNVDA ≤oracle×1.005 (none in current book)

30-min fallback (armed, fires in ~13 min)

2/2 fills from this agent; natural counterparty for swap liquidity

None — no sweepable sNVDA in book, no active counterparty to fill intent 654. Will execute cleanly when LP-Maker-Matheus returns (intent 654 fairly priced at oracle×0.99).

Drift detection precise (0.5%, correctly bounded)

Refresh rule keeps bait fresh as oracle moves

Sweepable sNVDA check adds opportunism without noise

30-min fallback appropriate for patient DCA

Zero-LLM, no spurious fires on empty book

No counterparty-health signal — posts bids blind to LP-Maker offline

No "counterparty dark >N min?" check to trigger faster fallback or stop refreshing

Continues refresh protocol into a dead market

Before refresh: check if LP-Maker-Matheus is armed; if offline >10 min, skip refresh and rely on fallback only. Avoids pointless bid refreshes when no taker exists.

No counterparty-health check

Watcher refreshes oracle-tracking loop without checking if LP-Maker-Matheus is alive. Continues refresh even with zero takers.

Add armWatcher data fetch of LP-Maker status; skip refresh if primary counterparty offline >N minutes.

Primary liquidity source offline — market frozen

LP-Maker-Matheus (64 deals lifetime, 100% of stacker-massimo's fills, 75% of rebalancer-lior's fills, 6+ agents depending) offline 139+ min with no fallback (nextFallbackMin=null). Cascade risk when market reopens ~18h.

Platform must restore LP-Maker-Matheus immediately or declare dead; implement watchdog/auto-restart for critical makers; broadcast counterparty health to dependent agents.

Stacker-Massimo is healthy and well-reasoned, but intent 654 will not fill while LP-Maker-Matheus is offline. 2 deals settled (both LP-Maker), 0 other active counterparties. Success depends entirely on LP-Maker recovery.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

1st unfilled expiry on SSV; book proven sub-fillable → violates 'no tiny unfillable reposts' rule. Per playbook: after 2

new fillable intent (SSV/sNVDA for USDC) or 3h fallback

Summary: Fade cycle executed cleanly w5–w9: captured real mean reversion on sAAPL (trimmed 31.9%→20%) and BTC dislocations; posted SSV fade (0x289, -1.89% dislocation, w11) but expired unfilled w13 due to thin book (correct: no churn-repost). **Entire counterparty base is now offline**: all 3 settled deals were ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (confirmed dead, no fallback). Zero r

Swing-nikita executed its mission correctly — posted real dislocations (≥1.5%), captured mean reversion, trimmed disciplined positions. But it has zero counterparties: all 3 deals were with LP-Maker-Matheus, now offline 139min (armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null, confirmed dead per Step 1). This is **core/fleet fault**, not agent fault.

settled_deals_detail: [3× 'Swap settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus']. SSV intent 0x289 (-1.89% dislocation, posted w11) expired unfilled w13; w13 log: 'book proven sub-fillable.' Step 1: 'LP-Maker-Matheus offline 139min, no fallback... confirmed dead. 6+ agents depend on it.'

Sound and on-mission. Quantitative: measured dislocation (SSV -1.89% vs 1.5% threshold), sized 23% of book to respect USDC buffer, distinct fades (sAAPL→BTC→SSV, not churn). w12 disciplined: 'Churn guard: no repost until expiry. Book thin on SSV; let 0x289 run (55 min remaining).' w13 correct: did not repost unfillable intent; armed 2–4h fallback instead. Solving the right problem (mean reversion

New dislocation ≥1.5% on any asset (scanned at wake time)

3h fallback watcher armed w13 (fires at ~22:06 UTC if no intent matches before)

Market maker, fills swaps at near-oracle mid; natural counterparty for fades

Takes 'clearly-mispriced swaps'; a real dislocation fade is mispriced by definition

Unknown — roster health=ok but unclear i

DCA agent; moves on schedule, not on dislocations

None. Agent posted on every dislocation ≥1.5% observed (sAAPL w7, BTC w7, SSV w11) and correctly skipped when all assets <1.5% (w10, w12). No intents in open book it could have taken that it didn't.

Fires on new SSV/sNVDA swaps — assets that just showed dislocations, high-probability takers

3h fallback ensures it doesn't sleep forever; will re-scan full market

60s poll is patient, not sub-minute churn

Zero LLM, pure deterministic newMatches()

Correct logic: fires on *new* intents, not 'book non-empty'

Narrowly scoped to SSV/sNVDA; will miss other dislocations until 3h fallback fires

No change required. The narrow scope is disciplined (avoids false wakes) and the 3h fallback ensures re-scans. If market signals broaden, the next wake cycle can adapt.

LP-Maker-Matheus dead, zero backup — swing-nikita (and 6+ agents) starved

All 3 settled deals via LP-Maker-Matheus. Now offline 139min (armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Per Step 1: 'confirmed dead. 6+ agents depend on it; will cascade when market reopens.' Swing-nikita cannot fill fades without hub liquidity.

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus or provision redundant hub. Until then: swing-nikita will post fades but cannot fill; PnL stalls.

No fallback counterparty for swing fades

Vulture-andrew might take a real fade, but is not a reliable maker. Market design has single-point-of-failure: all swing-like trades depend on LP-Maker-Matheus.

Consider a secondary LP hub or design incentive for other agents to quote near-oracle mid. Short-term: accept near-zero fill rates; long-term: redundant liquidity.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

Rebalance intents live and competitive; cannot post additional sAAPL/sNVDA buys outside US market hours. No takeable edg

5 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781036977; next poll 240s

Summary: Vulture-Andrew correctly enforces its margin discipline (cancels undermargin quotes, re-quotes fresh; takes only edges >1.25%) but realizes -2.34 USD net loss across 28 deals. Primary counterparty LP-Maker-Matheus (22/28 = 79% of deals) is now OFFLINE. Root issue: rebalancing gas cycles (w20–w24 show frequent cancellations/re-quotes) consume 0.5–1% per round

Vulture-Andrew's PnL problem is structural: gas costs from portfolio rebalancing (mandatory to maintain $8 floor on sAAPL/sNVDA) exceed the 1.25% edge captured on opportunistic swaps. 28 settled deals yield -2.34 USD realized loss. The agent is tactically sound (correct margin discipline, edge filtering) but economically underwater because execution costs (gas per rebalance cycle) were never budgeted into the edge threshold. Immediate blocker: LP-Maker-Matheus (79% of counterparties) is offline; market is frozen.

28 deals: 22 vs LP-Maker-Matheus (now OFFLINE), 3 vs 0xBd6a…9863, 1 vs arb-hunter-tom. Realized PnL: -2.34 USD. Recent wakes show rebalance cycles (w20: ~2.1M gas units; w21–w24: 4+ consecutive rebalance rounds). At ~0.3–0.5 USD per rebalance cycle, gas alone consumes >0.5% of a 1.25% edge. Between-

Sound logic, wrong economics. The agent correctly identifies and enforces its rules (w20: 'check-my-quotes flagged 565/566 below 1% floor — cancel and re-quote fresh'; w21: accept deal 68 at 1.25% clear). It's solving the intended problem (catch misprices, avoid undermargin). But the agent never audited whether 1.25% edge survives gas cost — it assumed the edge was profit, but the book (and now th

Book has takeable intent (fires immediately — GLOBAL rule)

Adaptive polling: BASE_SEC=300s when busy, extends to MAX_SEC=1800s when quiet, but tightens PRE_EXPIRY_SEC=300s before expiry

Hard fallback FALLBACK_SEC=7200s (2h) to force re-orient

OFFLINE (armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null per Step-1 crisis); was primary (22/28 = 79% of deals). Cascades collapse.

Took 3 swaps; small but reliable participant in settled deals.

None. Agent fires on all takeable edges. But in w25–w26, it reports 'no takeable edges >0.3%' — miss is market-driven (book frozen due to LP-Matheus offline), not agent-driven.

Fires immediately on any takeable edge (global rule — correct for an opportunist)

Adaptive cadence (faster when book is busy, slower when quiet) conserves tokens

Pre-expiry tightening (5 min before intent expires) ensures re-judging of near-decided edges

Hard fallback (2h) prevents drift in quiet markets

No gas-cost awareness: scan-edges.ts flags edges as 'takeable' without pricing the rebalancing gas that will follow. A 1.25% edge that triggers a 0.5% gas cycle

No PnL feedback loop: agent doesn't track 'how many edges did I take vs how much gas did I spend?' — should flag when realized_pnl is negative despite >1% edge

Integrate gas-cost into edge-acceptance logic. Modify scan-edges.ts to output estimated_gas_usd per edge, then require edge_pct_gained > (estimated_gas_usd / position_size) + 1.25% before firing. This will eliminate unprofitable edges and p

Execution cost erodes 1.25% edge to unprofitable

28 deals, -2.34 USD realized PnL despite 1.25% edge threshold. Rebalancing gas (w20–w24: frequent cycles) consumes 0.3–0.5 USD per cycle. Agent accepts edges above 1.25% but loses money post-settlement because edge < gas + slippage.

Add gas-cost awareness to CLAUDE.md rule. Before accepting an edge, compute: if (edge_pct > estimated_gas_usd/position_size + 1.25%) accept; else skip. This prevents sub-profitable fills. Audit realized_pnl per wake; if negative despite >1% edges, flag that margin floor is too low or rebalancing is

LP-Maker-Matheus offline (139+ min, no recovery) cascades starve to vulture-andrew

vulture-andrew: 22/28 deals (79%) were with LP-Maker-Matheus. Now OFFLINE (armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null). w25–w26 show zero edges available; agent waiting idle. Step-1 flags this as fleet-critical: 6+ agents depend on LP-Matheus liquidity.

Core: Restore LP-Maker-Matheus immediately or declare dead and spin up a backup maker. Backup must have same liquidity depth (LP-Matheus had 64 lifetime deals, clearing most agent needs). Platform blocker: market is FROZEN without it. No vulture-andrew recovery until LP-Matheus is back.

wallet-address frequency (11/14 agents addressed)

LP-MAKER OFFLINE; SWAP HUB COLLAPSED

LP-Maker-Matheus (DEAD) ⟷ Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Polymarket-Ljuba, Option-Writer-Matheus

FROZEN — LP-Maker-Matheus armed=false, pidAlive=false, 141 min offline. Wake-scr

STRUCTURALLY NON-CROSSING — Bear-Yosher sole maker, prices #414 at −25 to −35pp.

Arb-Hunter-Tom (hardcoded #414) ⟷ Bets #32, #89 (PRIMARY, MISSED)

BLIND TO PRIMARY — Watcher hardcoded `if (id === "414")` only. Agent correctly i

SUPPLY CRISIS — Engine 1 paused post-6-rejection (w21, 100% rejection rate w20–w

Momentum-Nikita ⟷ Market Volatility (>1pp gap, >3% move)

CORRECT IDLE — Market flat 06-08 17:47 → 06-09 15:24: BTC/ETH <1pp, <3%, uniform

NEVER INITIALIZED — Both armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 141 min, 60-min fallback never fired)

Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Polymarket-Ljuba, Option-Writer-Matheus Engine 2 all sta

LP-Maker-Matheus: 64 lifetime deals. Rebalancer-Lior 6/8 fills (75%), Vulture-Andrew 22/28 (79%), Stacker-Massimo 2/2 (100%), Swing-Nikita 3/3 (100%). Recent ledger: 12/16 recent settled ↔ LP-Matheus,

Bear-Yosher sole binary maker, prices #414 at −25 to −35pp; Mimic-Ljuba sole taker, floor 3pp min-profit

Intent #414 open 100+ min, zero takers; binary market static

Intent #414 posted, unfilled 100+ min. Mimic-Ljuba: 8 wakes w10–w17 scanning binaries, 0 takers, all bear's asks below 3pp floor. Sole maker/taker pair, structurally non-crossing.

Arb-Hunter-Tom wake-script hardcoded `if (id === "414")` on line ~58; primary targets #32/#89 omitted

Agent identified #32/#89 as primary (w52–w54), held $91.76 USDC, but watcher never fired during take window 15:09–15:39

Wake-script source: explicit single-bet filter. Agent logs w52 ('primary target'), w53 ('enter window in ~16min'), w54 ('opens imminently'), w56 (zero wake during 15:09–15:39). Gap timing exact match.

Option-Writer-Matheus Engine 1 hit 6 consecutive rejections (w20–w21, 100% rate); paused. Engine 2 portfolio rotation at

Option-Taker-Matheus starved 5h+ (w1 09:05–w8 19:29, zero audited options template 0xcd5689c...). Engine 2 intents 530/5

Option-Writer-Matheus: 6 rejections w20–w21, Engine 1 paused w21. Option-Taker-Matheus: 8 wakes, zero orders posted. LP-Maker offline (primary counterparty for Engine 2 swaps) cascaded to Engine 2 fai

Market structurally flat (BTC/ETH <1pp, <3%, 06-08 17:47–06-09 15:24)

Momentum-Nikita threshold (>1pp gap, >3% move) unmet 256 min; agent correctly idle, zero churn

Momentum-Nikita w2–w5: signal refused (edge floor unmet), zero new wakes. Market condition: all crypto declining together, <3% moves, <1pp gaps per Step 1 context.

Platform respawn mechanism failed: LP-Maker-Matheus dead 141 min, 60-min fallback never fired

LP-Maker-Matheus (64 lifetime deals, 75% of swap ecosystem) watcher died w44 17:19 UTC. Armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Wake-script contained 60-min fallback; should have fired ~18:19 UTC; did not. Cascade: rebalancer-lior (75%), vulture-andrew (79%), stacker-massimo (100%), swing-nikita (100%), option-writer-matheus Engine 2, polymarket-ljuba (intents #583, #601 unfilled 3h+).

Recent deals: 12/16 settled ↔ LP-Matheus, zero post-w44. Rebalancer-lior expects market open 13:30 UTC (~9h), will find zero liquidity. Open intents: 0x5F79…CB6D (54m TTL), 0xb591…7bD5 ×2 (52m, 44m), Vulture-Andrew ×2 (40m, 39m), Bear-Yoshe

EMERGENCY: (1) Diagnose respawn failure immediately — why did 60-min fallback not fire? (2) Respawn watcher if recoverable. (3) If LP-Maker-Matheus unrecoverable, deploy secondary LP maker(s) within ~6h (before 13:30 UTC market open) to prevent cascade on market reopen.

Arb-Hunter-Tom watcher hardcoded to monitor bet #414 only; primary targets #32/#89 missed entirely

Agent reasoning is sharp: w52 identified #32/#89 as 'primary target', w53 'window opens in ~16min', w54 'opens imminently'. Held $91.76 USDC liquid. Take window 15:09–15:39 (30 min open). Zero wake during window. Root cause: wake-script line ~58 `if (id === "414")` hardcoded single-bet filter, #32/#89 omitted.

Wake-script source: explicit bet ID check. Agent logs precisely track reasoning (w52–w54), held capital, window matches gap exactly (w54 15:04 → w56 15:29). Watcher armed=true, nextFallbackMin=33 (not platform issue; agent configuration bug

Remove hardcoded bet #414 filter from wake-script. Implement general bet-scanner: iterate all active bets, check if any match primary targets or edge threshold. Market reopens 13:30 UTC (~9h); fix before then to catch next vol/basis opportunity.

Index-Maker and Index-Taker never deployed: armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes lifetime

Two agents in roster but never initialized. Both: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes. Structurally paired (Index-Maker posts, Index-Taker takes/rebalances); both offline means zero index tracking.

Roster data: index-maker (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, no wake script), index-taker (identical dead state). No agent process spawned; no watcher armed.

Deploy both agents: verify wake-script source loaded, watcher process spawned, agent running. Check CI/deployment logs for initialization failure. Index tracking capability currently offline.

Option supply crisis: Engine 1 paused post-6-rejection; Engine 2 blocked by LP outage

Option-Writer-Matheus Engine 1 (audit/pricing) hit 100% rejection rate w20–w21 (6/6), paused to prevent churn. Engine 2 (portfolio rotation) attempted 3 swaps w23 (intents 528/530/533) but LP-Maker-Matheus already offline; intents 530/533 expired unfilled. Option-Taker-Matheus: 8 wakes w1–w8 (09:05–19:29), zero supply (5h 30m+). Taker correctly idle (no churn).

Option-Writer-Matheus: Engine 1 rejection logs w20–w21. Intent 528 filled (Bear-Yosher counterparty), 530/533 expired. Option-Taker-Matheus: 8 wakes, zero orders posted. Supply template 0xcd5689c... absent across all periods.

Diagnose Engine 1 rejection loop: enable debug logs, check oracle prices and auditor thresholds during w20 rejection window. Likely root cause: pricing calculation mismatch or auditor floor too strict. Once identified, re-enable Engine 1. Note: Engine 2 will remain blocked until

Binary bet market structurally non-crossing: Bear-Yosher −25 to −35pp vs Mimic-Ljuba 3pp floor

Bear-Yosher (sole crypto-down maker) posts #414 at −25 to −35pp loss. Mimic-Ljuba (sole 'accept winnable bets' taker) requires 3pp min-profit floor. Mismatch: bear's offer 25–35pp loss, taker's floor 3pp gain; no overlap. Intent #414 unfilled 100+ min. Both agents disciplined (Mimic 8 wakes, zero churn).

Intent #414 open 100+ min. Mimic-Ljuba: 8 wakes w10–w17 scanning binaries, 0 takers, all offers below 3pp floor. Sole maker/taker pair in binary market.

Decision point: (1) If 3pp floor is too strict for thin markets, loosen Mimic-Ljuba to 2pp (or dynamic floor based on book depth). (2) If 3pp is correct discipline, accept binary market is thin and non-crossing until bear improves terms or second maker joins (structural market de

Momentum-Nikita correctly idle: market flat <1pp / <3% moves; threshold unmet

Strategy: hunt >1pp gaps, >3% moves. Market 06-08 17:47–06-09 15:24: BTC/ETH <1pp, <3%, uniform decline. Agent zero-churn w2–w5 (correctly refuses signal). Watcher armed=true, fallback fires 188 min. This is structurally correct behavior.

Market data (Step 1): <1pp gaps, <3% moves, all crypto down together. Momentum-Nikita: 0 new wakes w2–w6, zero churn (correct for flat market).

None — monitor for volatility. Agent will wake when >1pp gap or >3% move arrives (expected around 13:30 UTC market open, typical volume/vol spike).

EMERGENCY respawn LP-Maker-Matheus watcher (root cause: 60-min fallback failed to fire ~18:19 UTC; platform respawn mechanism broken). Diagnose why armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null instead of armed=true with fallback. Timeline: critical before 13:30 UTC market open (~9h). If unr

Fix arb-hunter-tom watcher: remove hardcoded bet #414 filter from wake-script (~line 58). Implement general bet-scanner catching primary targets #32/#89. Verify before market open 13:30 UTC (~9h) to enable next take opportunity.

Deploy index-maker and index-taker (armed=false, pidAlive=false, never initialized). Verify: wake-script loaded, watcher spawned, agent process running. Index tracking currently offline.

Diagnose option-writer-matheus Engine 1 rejection loop (6/6 rejections w20–w21, 100% rate). Enable debug logs; check oracle prices and auditor pricing thresholds during rejection window. Identify mismatch (oracle drift? auditor floor too strict?). Re-enable Engine 1 once root cau

Evaluate binary market depth policy: Bear-Yosher / Mimic-Ljuba 25pp loss vs 3pp floor is structurally non-crossing. Decision: loosen Mimic-Ljuba floor to 2pp if 3pp too strict for thin markets, or accept binary market thin/static until second maker joins or bear improves terms (m

WORSE — LP-Maker-Matheus offline (armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null) with zero recovery mechanism; was flagged last run, now confirmed dead. 6+ agents depend on it; will cascade when market reopens (~18h, 13:30 UTC). Stacker-Massimo recovered normally (rearmed with 15-min fallback after w12 crash).

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 139min, no fallback: 64 deals lifetime, 75% of rebalancer-lior's fills (6/8), primary counterparty for all swap/DCA agents. Platform must restore or declare dead before market

Watcher firing gap (arb-hunter-tom): Prior summary flagged 25-min miss during take window 15:09–15:39 on bets #32/#89. Is wake-triggering structural or one-time scheduling?

Option supply crisis: option-writer-matheus Engine 1 paused (6 rejections); option-taker-matheus starved (zero options, 7 wakes, 5h 20m). These agents misaligned on terms.

Counterparty starvation: bear-yosher intent #414 open 100+ min (zero takers); mimic-ljuba saw 8 wakes with zero edges (≥3pp floor unmet on all binary bets)

Prior flagged 25-min miss during take window 15:09–15:39. Is hardcoded bet monitoring causing structural gap, or was it a one-time scheduling miss?

Intent #414 open 100+ min with zero takers. Did Mimic-Ljuba reject again, or market unresponsive to strike terms?

Why never woken (last_wake_min_ago=null)? Crashed before first run, or misconfigured watcher?

Why never woken? Waiting for index-maker, or platform initialization issue?

Watcher dead (armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null, pidAlive=false) with no respawn fallback. Is this a platform respawn bug or deliberate shutdown? Restore before 13:30 UTC?

8 wakes, zero edges found (3pp floor unmet). Is the edge threshold correctly calibrated for binary supply, or too strict?

Correctly idle 254min during flat market (<1pp gaps, <3% moves). Ready to deploy when volatility triggers >3% move?

Zero-option starvation (7 wakes, 5h 20m). Will option-writer-matheus Engine 1 resume writing, or should taker source elsewhere?

Engine 1 paused, Engine 2 intents 530/533 expired unfilled due to LP offline. Will cached intents auto-refire on LP restart, or are they permanently lost?

Intents #583, #601 unfilled (LP offline blocker). Will they auto-refire on LP restart or require republish?

Fallback fires in 22 min. Primary counterparty LP-Maker-Matheus (75% of prior fills) is offline. What happens when DCA resumes post-market-open?

Crashed at w12 17:31, rearmed with 15-min fallback (now armed=true). Will it succeed without LP-Maker-Matheus online? Intent 651 still stranded?

Intent 0x289 (SSV −1.89% dislocation) posted w11—did it fill in w12+, or still resting?

Lifetime loss regressed to −2.56 USD (−0.15 since last summary). Are execution costs reducing 1.25% edge threshold to unprofitable?

LP-Maker-Matheus restore or declare: Watcher dead with zero fallback. 6+ dependent agents (rebalancer-lior 75%, polymarket-ljuba, option-writer-matheus, swing-nikita, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew)

arb-hunter-tom watcher firing: Prior summary flagged 25-min gap during take window 15:09–15:39 (bets #32/#89). If hardcoded bet monitoring is structural, redesign wake-triggering to use event-based or

Option supply alignment: option-writer-matheus Engine 1 paused (6 rejections), option-taker-matheus starved (zero options, 5h 20m). Either reset terms/pricing or taker sources options elsewhere. Curre

Market reopen crisis plan (13:30 UTC, ~18h): LP offline will cascade to rebalancer-lior, swing-nikita, stacker-massimo DCA/fade wakes. If LP not restored, queue maintenance pause or coordinate seconda

mimic-ljuba: 8 wakes, zero edges. Verify 3pp edge floor is correct for current binary supply; is agent too strict or is market too thin?

swing-nikita: Intent 0x289 (SSV −1.89% dislocation, w11 post). Confirm if filled w12–w13 or still resting—clarifies w12 churn logic.