account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary bet has taker side in CEX money. No new intents on book. All USDC-payable swaps priced at taker loss.

new intent on book; bet #32 near expiry if BTC > $64k (30-min fallback)

Summary: W4 swap (2 SSV ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, +57bps, $45.76 PnL) remains the sole settled deal; W5–W11 were disciplined passes with BTC $480–$635 below the $64k strike. Agent crashed mid-W11 (19:49 on 06-08), now 529min dead (+60min from last run), armed=false/pidAlive=false — confirmed SDK epidemic casualty. Polymarket-Ljuba bets #32 (BTC<$64k) and #89 (ETH<$1700) ex

Agent is dead 529min (SDK epidemic, armed=false/pidAlive=false) and cannot take either natural target. BTC is ~$950 below the $64k strike (#32) and ETH ~$35 below $1,700 (#89) — so no trigger would have fired anyway. The watcher also has a coverage gap: bet #89 is absent from ANCHORS, so even a full revival leaves that arb surface blind.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — SDK crash identical to 7 others. Secondary: BTC ~$63,050 vs $64,000 strike = $950 gap; ETH ~$1,665 vs $1,700 strike = $35 gap; watcher's MIN_CEX_MARGIN=0.5% requires BTC ≥$64,320 and ETH ≥$1,708.5, both unmet. Bet #89 absent from ANCHORS array enti

Sound and disciplined — W5–W11 passes are correctly quantified (BTC $480–$635 below strike, 10bps threshold not cleared on any swap). Agent is solving the right problem; the market simply hasn't offered edge since W4. The SDK crash ended the loop before the 16:00 UTC expiry window, which is the actual failure — not reasoning quality.

New intent appears on book (fires immediately)

Bet #32 enters 30-min expiry window AND BTC ≥$64,320 (CEX + 0.5% margin)

MISSING: bet #89 (ETH<$1700) — no anchor in ANCHORS array; ETH leg of the natural Polymarket-Ljuba arb is invisible even if watcher were alive

Already settled W4 swap; fresh 12-intent batch (ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT, 48–50min TTL) posted — multiple potential swap-arb targets if

Natural maker for bets #32 and #89; arb-hunter-tom is their only live natural taker — but tom is dead and prices are currently out-of-money

Writes ETH calls (current: $1,665.4 strike, 0.15 USDC premium) — arb surface if option-taker-matheus dead and strike approaches CEX spot

alive, option-taker-matheus is dead so n

Also a taker competing on the same surface, not a counterparty

None since W4: BTC ranged $480–$950 below $64k strike throughout W5–W11 and through the current dead window — no binary trigger condition met. LP-Maker swap batch posted during the crash window (48–50min TTL); impossible to evaluate whether any cleared the 10bps threshold without agent uptime, but BTC/ETH oracle moves since W11 are unknown. Unmeasurable in part: watcher blind to book while crashed

30-min fallback correctly matched to 30–60min binary expiry windows — not over-polling, not stale

CEX price check with 0.5% margin guard prevents fill on ambiguous oracle-vs-CEX gap

New-intent trigger enables opportunistic swap arb without waiting for fallback

Baselines seen-set on first tick to avoid spurious fires on already-known intents

4-second abort controller on CEX fetch prevents hung watcher

Bet #89 (ETH<$1700, expiring same 16:00 UTC window) absent from ANCHORS — arb-hunter-tom is blind to its most time-critical target

ANCHORS are hard-coded from W11 scan; no dynamic re-scan of open binary bets each wake means new bets posted after W11 won't get anchors

Add bet #89 anchor (ETH, strike $1700, takerWinsIfAbove=true, checkAtUnix=expiryUnix-1800) to ANCHORS immediately — it expires at the same 16:00 UTC window as #32 and is the stronger near-money candidate ($35 gap vs $950). Longer-term: repl

SDK crash epidemic — agent dead 529min, no self-recovery

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Identical pattern across 8/12 agents; crash durations 500–913min with zero autonomous recovery. Arb-hunter-tom's 16:00 UTC expiry window is live and approaching — platform fix is the only path to participation.

Investigate and patch the shared SDK crash vector; add a supervised process-restart mechanism so watchers self-recover without manual intervention.

Bet #89 (ETH<$1700) missing from watcher ANCHORS

Current watcher covers only bet #32 (BTC<$64k). Bet #89 (ETH<$1700) expires at the same 16:00 UTC and ETH (~$1,665) is only $35 below strike — the more actionable near-money target — yet no expiry anchor or CEX check exists for it.

Add ANCHORS entry for bet #89: {intentId:'89', underlying:'ETH', strike:1700, takerWinsIfAbove:true, expiryUnix:<16:00 UTC unix>, checkAtUnix:expiryUnix-1800}. Then replace hard-coded ANCHORS with dynamic BinaryBet scan at each loop tick.

Bear-Yosher

Short ETH/BTC by default with leveraged Perpetuals (short- and long-term horizons), recycling realized profits into a stock basket; halt and cancel only when price climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Summary: Now 596min crashed (536min last run, +60min/cycle decay, zero self-recovery — fourth consecutive cycle at this cadence, SDK epidemic root cause). The BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba is confirmed active in an observation/settlement window: bear-yosher's BELOW bet on ETH was matched by Mimic-Ljuba when intent #48 left the book. ETH has moved directionally in bear's fa

Bear-yosher is 596min offline during the live settlement window of its one active position (BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba). The BELOW thesis is working (ETH ~$1,651 vs $1,682.93 baseline, ~1.9% in bear's favor), but if settlement requires an agent claim/response, the winning payout is at risk of forfeit. Realized PnL is -$2.36 (the swap leg), and the bet's outcome is unresolved. The agent cannot self-recover — this is an SDK crash, not a mission logic failure.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, last_wake_min_ago=596; part of the 8/12 SDK epidemic; no self-recovery mechanism in any crashed agent across the fleet. The bet position (BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba) is live in settled_deals_detail — not yet settled — confirmed by 'live' status tag.

The last wake reasoning was sound: bear thesis intact, posted BELOW bet (#48) against ETH baseline $1,682.93, started tech basket via sNVDA (0.06 qty, portfolio $99.97). The agent correctly identified no aligned binary to take and executed the mission's two tracks in parallel. The failure is entirely outside the agent's reasoning — the SDK crash killed the process before the watcher's primary trig

ownIntentResolved(intent #48) — ALREADY FIRED (bet was matched by Mimic-Ljuba); watcher never received the signal because it was crashed

ETH price > $1,708.17 (+1.5% from $1,682.93 baseline) — adverse-move guard

New tech-stock sell intent (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT posterGives) in open book

4-hour hard fallback — CANNOT FIRE, process dead

MISSING: settlement outcome confirmation trigger (no hook for 'BinaryBet settled → reinvest' step)

Counterparty on the active BinaryBet — already matched intent #48; the only agent with direct settlement dependency on bear-yosher right now

Already settled a swap with bear-yosher; could fill tech-basket swap legs (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) if bear-yosher restarts and posts them

alive, health ok, 12 fresh intents poste

Natural taker of near-decided binaries — would be the correct agent to take bear-yosher's next BELOW bet if ETH stays suppressed

Values BinaryBets against Polymarket distribution; could take a future bear-yosher BELOW bet if priced correctly vs Polymarket's ETH<$1700 i

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (process dead). However, LP-Maker posted a fresh batch of 12 swaps (48–50min TTL, includes ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) during the 596min offline window — bear-yosher's tech basket DCA via sNVDA would have been directly serviceable by LP-Maker had it been alive. At minimum one sNVDA swap opportunity was available and missed.

Primary trigger on ownIntentResolved(intent #48) is correct — mission advances only when the open bet resolves

ETH adverse-move guard (+1.5% from baseline) is appropriate cadence for a leveraged short thesis — not hair-trigger

Tech sell intent scanner enables opportunistic DCA without requiring a dedicated wake cycle

4-hour hard fallback is a valid safety net; zero-LLM loop is correct

ETH baseline ($1,682.93) and intent ID (48) are hardcoded constants — after a crash+restart, these are stale and the entire script logic is wrong from the first

No post-settlement trigger: once the BinaryBet settles, bear-yosher has no mechanism to wake on the outcome and execute the 'reinvest proceeds' mission step

No liveness signal: if the process dies, there is no watchdog, health-check, or external ping that can restart it — the 4h fallback is useless if the process is

Parameterize ETH_BASELINE from the live price at wake-script init time (not a hardcoded constant), and resolve MY_INTENT_ID dynamically by querying own open intents at startup — this makes the script restart-safe after any crash. Add a post

SDK crash: no self-recovery after process death

bear-yosher is 596min offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false). The 4-hour fallback is useless when the process is dead — there is no external watchdog to restart agents. This is the same root cause as 7 other crashed agents.

Fleet-level: add a process supervisor (systemd/pm2 or equivalent) that restarts agent watchers on crash with exponential backoff. This is a core infrastructure fix, not per-agent.

Settlement mechanics unknown: does BinaryBet require active claim?

The 'BinaryBet live ↔ Mimic-Ljuba' position is in an observation window. If the platform auto-settles to the winner's account, bear-yosher's winning position (ETH ~$1,651 vs $1,682.93 baseline, bet BELOW) is safe. If the winner must call a claim/settle action, bear-yosher cannot act and forfeits. Th

Core: document and expose settlement mechanics in the SDK. If claim-required, add a fleet-wide settlement monitor that alerts when an agent has an unclaimed winning position and is offline.

Wake script is stale on restart: hardcoded baseline and intent ID

ETH_BASELINE=1682.93 and MY_INTENT_ID='48' are constants. After the crash, intent #48 is already resolved (matched by Mimic-Ljuba). A cold restart would immediately trigger ownIntentResolved on a dead intent ID, or silently skip it if the intent is gone — producing an incorrect initial state and sta

On bear-yosher restart: (1) rewrite wake script to read live ETH price at init for baseline, (2) query own open intents dynamically to find the current active bet ID rather than hardcode #48, (3) add a post-settlement hook to drive the reinvest step.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

12 expiring quotes at snapshot time — standard cancel+repost. No vol-term (all oracle moves <0.5%). No free-option risk

new counterparty swap OR 30min (quotes expire ~05:10 UTC)

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

deal #3 expires OR new ≥3pp BinaryBet appears (or 24h fallback)

Summary: Complete reversal from prior summary: agent went from dead (0 wakes, armed=false, null script) to 7 wakes and 1 settled deal (Deal #3, BinaryBet ↔ Bear-Yosher) this cycle. Initialized, operational, and holding an active position. However, the pricing logic uses a hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 flat prior — the agent took the 'above $65k in 24h' side when BTC oracle

Agent is live (7 wakes, 1 deal, armed, pid alive) — a full reversal from last run. Deal #3's claimed +22pp edge is likely illusory: FAIR_PROB is hardcoded at 0.5 regardless of oracle distance, so every out-of-the-money binary looks like an edge. The one realized deal may be a losing position.

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own text), yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM.

Sound discipline (one-deliberate-move rule, hold rather than churn, waits for expiry signal) — but solving the wrong problem. The edge gate uses a 50/50 flat prior for a clearly directional binary, so it will systematically take deep-OTM positions and call them profitable. The reasoning is coherent but the pricing model is wrong.

Deal #3 expiry at DEAL_EXPIRY_TS (2026-06-09T14:10Z)

New BinaryBet on book with takerEdgePp ≥ 3pp (vs flat FAIR_PROB=0.5)

MISSING: oracle-adjusted fair probability — watcher fires on 'edge vs 0.5' not 'edge vs calibrated prob'

Already traded (Deal #3); posts BTC directional BinaryBets that mimic-ljuba takes; missions complement

armed=true, 18min fallback imminent — wa

Both trade BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba also posts small-shade binaries mimic-ljuba could mirror

armed=true but nextFallbackMin=1284 — ef

Picks off mispriced bets; could take mimic-ljuba's self-posted directional intents

Posts Options, not BinaryBets — different template, no structural overlap

armed, 10 deals — active but wrong templ

None identifiable from current data — watcher is reading the live book and evaluating new BinaryBets each loop. However, the flat-prior edge filter may have passed bad intents (like Deal #3) while the oracle-calibrated filter would have blocked them. Missed opportunities on the downside (bad bets accepted) are more likely than missed good ones.

Hardcodes DEAL_ID + DEAL_EXPIRY_TS — correct single-deal tracking pattern

Fires on deal expiry OR new high-edge bet — dual trigger fits hold-then-rotate mission

newMatches() pattern avoids re-evaluating already-seen intents

24h fallback is proportionate to deal horizon

FAIR_PROB=0.5 is hardcoded flat prior — correct only for a coin-flip binary; any bet with a known oracle price has a non-flat fair distribution

No oracle-distance calibration: takerEdgePp = (0.5 - takerProb)*100 will mark any bet where taker puts up <50% as 'edge', including deep OTM positions

Edge floor of 3pp vs wrong fair value gives a false gate

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with an oracle-calibrated fair probability: read the current oracle price and the bet's strike/direction, compute fair prob via a simple log-normal or historical vol estimate, then derive takerEdgePp against that. One

Flat FAIR_PROB=0.5 invalidates edge calculations for directional binaries

hasEdge() uses (0.5 - takerProb)*100 as edge. For a BTC above $65k bet with oracle at $63,383, true fair prob is ~12–18%; the flat prior makes the bet look like +32–38pp edge when true edge may be negative. Deal #3 was likely taken at negative EV.

Read oracle price + bet strike + direction in the wake loop; compute fair prob via historical vol (e.g., 80% annualized → ~15% daily σ → lognormal CDF for strike distance); use that as FAIR_PROB instead of 0.5. Can be inlined in hasEdge() with a belt.tools.readOracle call.

Self-posted intent (w1) untracked by watcher

w1 posted a directional BTC bet as maker; the watcher only monitors Deal #3 expiry and incoming taker opportunities — no monitoring of whether the self-posted intent got filled or expired.

After each self-post, store the intentId in watcher state and add a fireWake trigger when that intent settles or expires.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Summary: Ninth consecutive dead cycle — last_wake_min_ago advanced 591→651 (+60min, clock-perfect with fleet pattern). Watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Intent #28 is confirmed settled (LP-Maker-Matheus filled it), which was the exact trigger condition in current.ts; the watcher never fired because the process had already died before d

Intent #28 settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus (the watcher's own trigger condition), but the watcher process was already dead and never detected it. The 90min fallback also lapsed. 651min offline, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — no self-recovery path exists. This is confirmed manual-restart territory; the SDK crash epidemic is the root cause.

Watcher hardcoded INTENT_ID='28'; intent #28 is settled (settled_deals_detail confirms LP-Maker-Matheus fill); ownIntentResolved() would have returned true had the process lived; it didn't fire → process died pre-detection. 90min fallback also expired without firing. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nex

Agent's last reasoning (06-08T17:47 w1) was sound: no trailing returns → establish baseline → 25% BTC starter. Correct momentum logic. Problem is entirely platform-layer — the watcher died after the single wake, consumed its only deal, and has been silent 651min. The trigger event (intent #28 resolution) has already passed with no one watching.

ownIntentResolved on intent #28 (fill or expiry) — ALREADY OCCURRED, watcher was dead when it fired

90min fallback — ALREADY LAPSED (~560min ago), watcher was dead

MISSING: no periodic heartbeat or re-arm mechanism if watcher process dies mid-watch

Already filled intent #28; would fill momentum swaps on ETH/BTC/SSV pairs at oracle mid

alive, health=ok, 12 fresh intents poste

DCA swaps could cross momentum's direction if rotation aligns

Would take mispriced momentum intents opportunistically

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — but given 1 reliable counterparty (LP-Maker) and 651min downtime, any momentum rotation opportunity on BTC/ETH since 06-08T17:47 was missed entirely. LP-Maker's 12-swap fresh batch (ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) posted right now could have been counterparty fodder for a new momentum intent.

Watches the specific outstanding intent (correct inter-wake continuity pattern)

90min fallback covers 1h RFQ window with buffer — right cadence for a delivered swap

Zero-LLM, event-driven trigger (ownIntentResolved) is correct

No process-death resilience: if watcher dies mid-watch, nothing re-arms — confirmed failure mode here

Hardcoded INTENT_ID='28' becomes stale after intent resolves; next wake needs a fresh ID but there is no next wake

Fallback fires once and arms a new wake — but if the process is dead, the fallback never fires

Add a supervisor/heartbeat mechanism (e.g. a cron-side watchdog) that detects when armed=false AND pidAlive=false AND last_wake_min_ago > 120 and re-triggers the agent — this is a core/SDK gap affecting 8/12 agents, not just momentum-nikita

No watcher process resurrection on crash

When the watcher process dies (SDK crash epidemic), armed=false and pidAlive=false with no re-arm. The 90min fallback never fires because the process is dead. All 8 crashed agents share this failure mode — momentum-nikita is just the clearest case because its trigger event (intent #28 resolution) is

Core watchdog: detect armed=false AND pidAlive=false AND last_wake_min_ago > fallback threshold → automatically re-launch the agent's wake script or queue a forced wake. This is the single highest-leverage fix for the fleet (recovers 8/12 agents).

Hardcoded INTENT_ID in wake script becomes stale

current.ts hardcodes INTENT_ID='28'. After the agent restarts and posts a new intent, the script must be regenerated with the new ID — there's no dynamic lookup. Minor issue compared to the crash, but next restart will need a fresh script.

Wake script should look up the agent's most recent open intent dynamically rather than hardcoding an ID, so a stale script doesn't silently watch a resolved/non-existent intent forever.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: 17th consecutive dead cycle — zero state change. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, $0.15 lifetime spend (bootstrap only). Running tally of option-writer posts missed: at minimum 4 — three declining puts ($1,654.55, $1,651.63, $1,648.25, all expired OTM per prior summaries) and now the current ETH call (

option-taker-matheus has never executed a single wake and has no wake script. It is the sole designed buyer for option-writer's ETH/BTC options; with 4+ confirmed option posts missed (3 expired puts + current call at $1,665.4/0.15 USDC), every option-writer cycle is wasted liquidity. This is an initialization failure, not a logic or market failure.

wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, armed=false, pidAlive=false across 17 cycles; bootstrap-only spend of $0.15; settled_deals=not-indexed (never indexed by the fleet); no deal history of any kind

No reasoning to evaluate — the agent has never run. The absence of a wake script is itself the finding: something failed at initialization and there is no self-repair path.

MISSING: any trigger — wake_script_source is null, agent has never armed

sole designed counterparty — writes the ETH/BTC options option-taker is built to buy

alive and active (12 settled deals, fres

mission includes buying mispriced options vs Polymarket implied distribution, but primary focus is binary bets; not a substitute for ITM opt

picks off mispriced intents broadly; could opportunistically take a near-ITM option but not its designed role

watcher armed but pre-crash state flagge

Minimum 4 option-writer posts since tracking began: puts at $1,654.55, $1,651.63, $1,648.25 (all expired OTM, cited in prior summaries) + current ETH call $1,665.4 strike / 0.15 USDC premium / ~22min TTL (almost certainly expiring unfilled). Exact count of all option-writer posts since agent death is unmeasurable from available data — settled_deals=not-indexed and no on-chain tally provided — but

wake_script_source is null — no watcher exists at all; cannot evaluate fit-to-mission

No fallback timer, no armed state, no pid — agent is fully uninitialized

Bootstrap the agent: write a wake script that polls for open option intents from option-writer-matheus (filtering by template=Option, asset=ETH/BTC, TTL>30min), evaluates ITM probability vs strike + oracle price, and takes if premium/risk r

Agent never initialized — wake script missing

wake_script_source=null across 17 cycles. The agent process never started; $0.15 was spent at bootstrap and nothing since. There is no watcher to arm, no fallback, no recovery path.

Write current.ts for option-taker-matheus: poll option-writer intents, filter ITM candidates, take on conviction. Re-run bootstrap. This is the only fix needed — the mission design is sound, only the initialization is absent.

Option market is single-agent: writer alive, taker dead → all options expire unfilled

option-writer-matheus has posted at least 4 options with no taker. Each expiry is a wasted option-writer cycle and zero realized PnL for either side. Until option-taker boots, the ETH/BTC option market is structurally inoperative.

Prioritize option-taker-matheus initialization above other crashed agents — it directly unlocks a live, active counterparty (option-writer) that is already posting.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Option pricing discipline: when near-OTM won't fill, move to ATM for real intrinsic value, not higher premium (which nev

ETH call option (272) resolves or 90min fallback

Summary: Swap engine healthy: 12/12 settled deals all with LP-Maker, $16.99 realized PnL. Option engine: 0/5 fills across intents 0xd5→0xe6→0xf3→258→272 (ladder: 4.4%→2.6%→2.0%→2.0%→3.0% ATM call). W19 pivoted from OTM put to ATM call ($1,665.4 strike) reasoning that ATM offers 'real intrinsic value' — but misidentifies the problem: it's buyer absence, not pricing. I

All $16.99 PnL comes from swaps (LP-Maker); the option sleeve has never filled across 5 consecutive writes. Option-taker-matheus (sole designed buyer) is dead. Polymarket-ljuba is alive and mission-allows option buying but has taken 0 of these — either they don't appear mispriced vs Polymarket's distribution, or polymarket-ljuba isn't scanning for them. The repricing ladder and ATM pivot show disciplined reasoning but are solving the wrong problem: this is counterparty starvation, not a pricing issue.

0xd5 unfilled (4.4%, 1.5hr), 0xe6 unfilled (2.6%, 1.5hr), 0xf3 unfilled (2.0%, 1.5hr), intent 258 unfilled (2.0%, 4hr), intent 272 pending expiry (3.0% ATM call, 1.5hr) — all 12 settled deals are swaps with LP-Maker-Matheus; option counterparties: option-taker-matheus dead, vulture-andrew crashed (6

Sound execution logic, wrong diagnosis. The repricing-down ladder and ATM pivot show real discipline. But W19's reasoning ('ATM for real intrinsic value, not higher premium which never fills') treats the symptom (no fills) as a pricing problem — the actual cause is buyer absence. Lowering premium or moving to ATM cannot manufacture demand when no counterparty is awake or mission-aligned to buy. Th

ownIntentResolved on intent 272 (filled/expired/cancelled)

90-min fallback (gives 30min margin beyond 60-min accept window)

MISSING: no trigger on counterparty availability — watcher cannot detect if option-taker-matheus recovers or if polymarket-ljuba posts a bid for an option

sole designed option buyer; mission explicitly covers ETH/BTC options

DEAD — health=unknown, not in active fle

mission: 'value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones' — structurally elig

alive (ok health, nextFallbackMin active

mission: 'take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries' — could take a deep-ITM option near expiry as a near-decided bet

swap market-maker only; no option mandate

alive, healthy — but irrelevant for opti

None for swaps — LP-Maker fills all swap intents promptly. For options: unmeasurable in reverse (no evidence that option-writer missed takeable option demand). The relevant missed opportunity runs the other way: polymarket-ljuba is alive and theoretically should evaluate these options against Polymarket's ETH distribution, but has taken none — either the options don't look mispriced to it, or poly

Zero-LLM poll loop on ownIntentResolved — fires immediately on fill/expiry/cancel, no wasted wakes

90-min fallback gives 30-min margin past the 60-min accept window — correct for catching expiry and repricing

Intent ID hardcoded per-wake (regenerated each cycle) — clean, no stale references

Cadence appropriate: option with 60-min accept window, ~28min avg gap — reasonable polling frequency

No signal path for counterparty recovery — if option-taker-matheus revives mid-cycle, watcher won't accelerate

Accept window (60min) is shorter than fallback (90min): watcher will keep polling 30min after the intent is no longer acceptable by design — harmless but slight

Align fallback to accept window + small margin: fallbackMs = 65 * 60_000 (65min). The current 90min means 30min of dead polling after the option can no longer be taken. Savings: ~30min/cycle of needless watcher CPU, and the agent reprices 2

Option-taker-matheus is permanently dead; option market has no demand side

5 consecutive option writes, 0 fills. The option engine's designed counterparty (option-taker-matheus) has health=unknown and is absent from the fleet. polymarket-ljuba is alive but has taken 0 option intents despite being mission-eligible. Until a buyer exists, every option write is a gas spend wit

Revive option-taker-matheus, OR audit why polymarket-ljuba (0 deals, alive) isn't evaluating option-writer's open intents against its Polymarket distribution model — if polymarket-ljuba's watcher doesn't scan for open option intents from other agents, add that check.

Option engine should pause or reduce frequency until a buyer is confirmed alive

Agent is posting one option intent per ~28min avg wake, each burning ~110k wei gas, with $0 return across 5 attempts. The 'reprice cheaper' discipline is correct but cannot overcome buyer absence. The swap engine is working; continued option posting at current rate is negative-EV until counterparty

Add a circuit-breaker: after N consecutive unfilled option expiries (suggest N=4, already hit), skip option posting for K wakes (suggest K=3) and log 'option engine paused: no counterparty activity detected'. Resume when book shows an option-eligible counterparty active, or on manual reset.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

Highest-edge near-even maker candidate: ETH$1700 Jun9 edge=10.3%, $124k liquidity. Shade 60.3%-1.5%=58.8%. Exposure $10+

intent#32 or #89 fills/expires, or new takeable BinaryBet/Option on book (fallback June 9 20:00 UTC)

Summary: Agent remains ARMED (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=922, down from 1102 — ~3h elapsed, consistent). Both maker intents posted at W1/W2 (#32 BTC<$64k, #89 ETH<$1700, Jun9 16:00 UTC expiry) still unfilled. BTC implied ~$63,050 and ETH ~$1,651 mean both bets are currently ITM from polymarket-ljuba's 'below' side — but that is precisely WHY no taker is appearing

Both bets are ITM (BTC ~$63,050 < $64k strike, ETH ~$1,651 < $1,700 strike), T-5min trigger is live and will fire at 15:55 UTC Jun9 — but arb-hunter-tom is dead and vulture-andrew is crashed, leaving 0 capable takers in the fleet. Unfilled expiry captures $0 regardless of correct directional call. This is a fleet/counterparty fault, not an agent fault.

Intent #32 (txHash 0xe0bee8...) posted W1 18:03 Jun8, intent #89 (txHash 0xe09e09...) posted W2 20:01 Jun8 — both unfilled after 517+ min. arb-hunter-tom (natural binary taker, 1 deal) armed=false/pidAlive=false. vulture-andrew (secondary taker, 6 deals) armed=false/pidAlive=false. mimic-ljuba alive

Sound reasoning on the right problem. W1 correctly identified BTC<$64k as highest Polymarket signal quality ($158k liquidity, $52k/day volume, oracle $63,457 vs $64k strike). W2 correctly chose ETH<$1,700 as highest-edge near-even candidate (10.3% edge, $124k liquidity, shade 58.8%). Both wakes executed on-mission: 'make a small-shade binary when nothing's mispriced to buy' — no mispriced options

ownIntentResolved: fires if intent #32 or #89 fills or expires

preExpireFired: fires at EXPIRY_SEC-300 = 15:55 UTC Jun9 (T-5min before 16:00 UTC expiry)

newMatches: fires on any new BinaryBet/Option intent posted by another agent

fallback: June 9 20:00 UTC (EXPIRY_SEC + 4h)

MISSING: no mid-window repricing trigger — if bets sit deeply ITM for hours with no takers, agent cannot lower shade to attract a taker without a wake

Mission: take near-decided binary bets on fast CEX feed vs slow oracle — exact fit for ITM bets

DEAD — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 de

Takes near-decided binaries (6 deals); would consider ITM bets but only at perceived edge

CRASHED — stuck health, part of SDK epid

Mirrors BinaryBets and accepts open bets — mission is to take winnable ones, but these are maker intents from polymarket-ljuba itself, not t

none verifiable — agent's other role is to BUY mispriced Options/BinaryBets from other agents, but no such intents appear in the book data. Agent is correctly in maker mode. Watcher does scan the book (readOpenIntents limit:50) each 60s loop, so if a takeable intent posts, it fires.

T-5min pre-expiry trigger (EXPIRY_SEC-300 = 15:55 UTC) is structurally present and will fire — critical for settlement action

Dual ownIntentResolved checks (intent #32 and #89) fire immediately if either fills or expires early

60s poll with seen-set baseline avoids false fire on stale book

Fallback at EXPIRY_SEC+4h (20:00 UTC) gives post-expiry reassessment window

isNewTakeable filter correctly excludes own intents (MY_ADDRESS check) and non-BinaryBet/Option templates

Single pre-expiry check point (T-5min only) — if oracle is stale or network is congested at exactly 15:55 UTC, agent has no secondary settlement trigger

No mid-window repricing logic — bets deeply ITM with no takers cannot self-adjust shade without agent waking; watcher has no hook for 'N hours unfilled + ITM →

Add a secondary pre-expiry fire at T-30min (EXPIRY_SEC-1800) so the agent can assess repricing or taker outreach before the final T-5min settlement window — a single 5-min window is too narrow if oracle or settlement infrastructure is slow

SDK epidemic leaves polymarket-ljuba with 0 capable takers

arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew — the only two fleet agents that take near-decided binary bets — are both armed=false/pidAlive=false. Intent #32 and #89 posted 517+ min ago and will expire unfilled. $0 PnL despite correct directional call (BTC ~$63,050 < $64k, ETH ~$1,651 < $1,700).

Restore arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew — these are the fleet's binary taker layer; without them, maker bets from polymarket-ljuba cannot clear regardless of correctness.

Single pre-expiry trigger window (T-5min only) is fragile

If the T-5min fireWake at EXPIRY_SEC-300 misfires (oracle delay, node congestion, loop timing), there is no fallback settlement check before the 20:00 UTC fallback — 4h after expiry.

Add a T-30min fireWake (EXPIRY_SEC-1800) as a secondary pre-expiry check, giving the agent 25 min of headroom to reprice, repost, or initiate settlement manually.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: Structurally unchanged: 1 lifetime wake (17:20 UTC Jun-08), 0 settled deals, fully dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false) at 678min offline — +180min since prior summary at 498min. Focus answer: LP-Maker's BTC ask ticked up from $63,000→$63,050 (12.6→12.61 USDC for 0.0002 BTC), narrowing the crossing spread from ~$348→~$298. Lior's implied bid (~$63,348) still c

Fully crashed for 678min with 0 deals. Oracle ticked BTC up ~$50 since last run, narrowing the LP-Maker crossing spread to $298 — Lior's implied bid still exceeds LP-Maker's ask, so a live Lior could take the fill today. The trade opportunity persists; the blocker is the dead watcher process, not price.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — process died before the 4h fallback at ~21:20 UTC Jun-08 fired; intent #13 expired (open_intents=0, settled_deals=0) with no re-trigger; 678min offline with zero self-recovery

Single wake showed sound reasoning: correctly identified BTC as most underweight (-35pp), computed $7 DCA slice, handled PosterNotRegistered prereq in sequence. Agent logic is correct and on-mission. The failure is the watcher dying at the platform layer — not the agent's decision quality.

ownIntentResolved(intent #13) — stale, intent #13 expired (open_intents=0)

setTimeout 2026-06-08T17:30:00Z US market open — stale, >11h past

4h fallback — should have fired ~21:20 UTC Jun-08; watcher process died before it executed

MISSING: no supervisor/cron to relaunch dead watcher process

LP-Maker selling BTC at $63,050 (12.61 USDC for 0.0002 BTC); Lior's implied bid ~$63,348 clears by $298 — direct fill candidate

alive, fresh 12-intent batch with BTC pa

LP-Maker posted BTC at $63,000–$63,050 across the full ~678min offline window; Lior's implied bid of ~$63,348 crosses every one of those asks — sustained missed fill opportunity for the entire crash duration

Triggers on own intent resolution — correct for a post-and-wait DCA agent

4h fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient slice-per-wake mission

Zero-LLM polling loop; ownIntentResolved check is the right predicate

MY_INTENT_ID='13' and marketOpenEpochMs='2026-06-08T17:30:00Z' are hardcoded stale artifacts — a restarted watcher would watch a dead intent and a past timestam

No process supervisor or cron fallback; single-point-of-failure on the PID

Remove hardcoded intent ID and market-open timestamp; rewrite to dynamically discover open own intents at start and compute next US market open from Date.now() — eliminates stale-artifact failure on every wake after the first

No watcher self-recovery — affects 8/12 fleet agents

Watcher process died before the 4h fallback; 678min offline with zero recovery. Same failure mode across swing-nikita (913min), bear-yosher (594min), and 5 others — systemic platform gap.

Add process supervisor or periodic cron heartbeat that checks pidAlive and relaunches dead watchers; this single fix unblocks 8/12 agents

Stale hardcoded intent ID and timestamp in current.ts

MY_INTENT_ID='13' (expired, open_intents=0) and marketOpenEpochMs='2026-06-08T17:30:00Z' (>11h past) are baked into the wake script — a manual restart would still not trigger correctly.

Next wake script should call readIntent dynamically for own open intents and compute next market open relative to Date.now() at script initialization

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

No sweepable sell-side sNVDA within 0.5% of oracle. Posted bait bid at oracle×0.99 to attract mean-reverters.

intent 78 resolves / sell-side sNVDA / oracle drift / 16:30 ET fallback

Summary: Now 526min crashed (+60min from 466min last run — SDK epidemic, armed=false/pidAlive=false, no self-recovery). Intent #78 confirmed expired: open_intents=0, settled_deals=0, no fill ever. Structural price gap persists unchanged: stacker ceiling oracle×1.005 (~$208.80 at oracle $207.76) is ~$1.20 below LP-Maker's typical sNVDA ask (~$210 = oracle×1.008). LP-M

Zero deals in lifetime; crash now 526min. The blocking issue is not the crash — it's that stacker's buy ceiling (oracle×1.005) has never been within $1.20 of LP-Maker's sNVDA ask floor (oracle×~1.008+). Raising the ceiling to oracle×1.010 would make the agent tradeable the moment it recovers.

oracle=$207.76 → stacker ceiling=$208.80 (×1.005); LP-Maker sNVDA ask~$210 (×1.008); gap ~$1.20 across every observed cycle. 0 settled deals lifetime. Intent #78 (bait bid oracle×0.99=$205.68) expired unfilled — no sell-side counterparty within range.

Sound reasoning, wrong parameters. The bait-bid strategy (oracle×0.99 to attract mean-reverters) is coherent, and the oracle-drift + intent-resolution triggers are well-chosen. But the ceiling oracle×1.005 is the wrong number for this market: LP-Maker, the only natural sell-side sNVDA provider, quotes at oracle×1.008+. The agent is disciplined and patient inside a price band that can never clear.

new sell-side sNVDA intent at ≤ oracle×1.005

fallback: originally 16:30 ET 2026-06-08 — NOW STALE, degenerates to 1-min poll

Only active sNVDA sell-side provider; ask ~$210 (oracle×1.008) exceeds stacker ceiling $208.80 (oracle×1.005) by ~$1.20 — gap must close bef

Could theoretically sell sNVDA but is crashed 676min and has 0 deals

LP-Maker's fresh sNVDA intents in its 12-intent batch could theoretically be takeable, but LP-Maker's sNVDA ask has consistently been ~$210 (oracle×1.008), above stacker's oracle×1.005 ceiling — no qualifying intent has appeared in any cycle. Unmeasurable whether any third-party sell-side sNVDA appeared while watcher was crashed (526min blind window).

Fires on own-intent resolution (fill/expire) — correct for a limit-bid strategy

Oracle drift trigger (>0.5%) catches repricing events that would require a new bid

newMatches() filter for sell-side sNVDA at ≤ oracle×1.005 is exactly the right market-scan for this mission

60s poll cadence is reasonable for a patient stacker; not sub-minute spam

AFTERHOURS_TS = 1780950600 is hardcoded to 2026-06-08 20:30 UTC — now ~24h stale; fallbackMs degenerates to 60_000ms (1 min) instead of intended 30 min, creatin

isSellSideNVDA ceiling is oracle×1.005 — structurally below LP-Maker's floor; watcher will never fire on condition 3 unless oracle spikes or LP-Maker lowers its

No self-recovery on crash (SDK epidemic scope, not agent scope)

Replace hardcoded AFTERHOURS_TS with a rolling fallback: `const fallbackMs = 30 * 60 * 1000;` — eliminates the stale-timestamp defect and gives a clean 30-min cadence regardless of when the watcher runs. Separately (agent CLAUDE.md): raise

SDK epidemic: watcher crash, no self-recovery (526min down)

armed=false, pidAlive=false — same root cause as 8/12 crashed agents. Stacker can't post new intents or take LP-Maker's sNVDA batch while crashed.

Fleet-level SDK crash recovery mechanism — out of scope for this agent alone.

Structural price gap: ceiling oracle×1.005 < LP-Maker floor oracle×1.008

Every cycle, stacker's max buy price ($208.80 at $207.76 oracle) is ~$1.20 below LP-Maker's sNVDA ask (~$210). 0 deals in lifetime. Raising ceiling by 0.5pp to oracle×1.010 (~$210.05) would make the agent competitive against LP-Maker's current ask.

Update stacker CLAUDE.md / mission parameters: raise sNVDA buy ceiling to oracle×1.010. Also update isSellSideNVDA threshold in wake script to match.

Stale hardcoded afterhours timestamp in wake script

AFTERHOURS_TS = 1780950600 (2026-06-08 20:30 UTC) is now past; fallbackMs = Math.max(60_000, negative) = 60_000ms — 1-min fallback instead of 30 min if watcher ever re-arms.

Replace with rolling fallback: `const fallbackMs = 30 * 60 * 1000;` — no absolute timestamp, no staleness.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Summary: 915min dead (+60min since last summary — change: none). Pattern is now six consecutive cycles of identical state: armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null, wakes=1, $0 spend in last 5h, lifetime $0.56 all from the single USDC-approval wake at 06-08T13:23. The Step-1 question is answered definitively: nothing has changed. No log, no partial arm, no scr

swing-nikita has been dead 915min — the fleet's longest offline streak by ~239min over the next worst. Zero self-recovery across six cycles. One wake ever (USDC approval, 06-08T13:23, $0.56). The warmup watcher script is correctly written but never got to arm; the crash is pre-arm, and without a process supervisor it will stay dead indefinitely.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null across every cycle since 06-08T13:23; only wake was setup/approval; no subsequent arming attempt; 0 tokens spent in last 5h confirms zero activity

No reasoning to evaluate — agent never reached its first operational wake. The single wake was boilerplate setup (USDC approval). Cannot assess swing-signal logic quality until the process is running.

60-min time-based fallback via armWatcher (designed correctly for warmup sample collection)

MISSING: process supervisor / restart-on-crash — without it, a pre-arm crash is permanent

Natural taker for swing-nikita's delivered swaps across ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT — LP just posted a fresh 12-swap batch (48–50min TTL)

Also trades delivered swaps across overlapping pairs, could cross with swing signals

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent never reached operational state; LP-Maker's 12-swap batch (posted ~48–50min TTL) represents the most recent concrete window that passed with swing-nikita dead

60-min fallback is the right cadence for a swing trader accumulating trailing-average price samples

Zero-LLM, time-based only — no false triggers from book state

runWatchLoop with deadline correctly handles the fallback without a polling condition

Script is never reached — process dies before arming; the script's correctness is moot until the crash is fixed

Fix is not in the wake script — add a process supervisor (systemd unit, pm2, or SDK-level restart-on-exit) so a pre-arm crash triggers a relaunch; the script itself needs no changes

No process restart on crash — permanent death after pre-arm failure

swing-nikita (and 7 other crashed agents) have no recovery path once the process dies before arming. 915min with armed=false/pidAlive=false is the evidence. This is the SDK/platform gap, not agent config.

Add a process supervisor at the SDK/harness level: restart any agent process that exits with armed=false within N minutes of launch. Even a simple exit-code check + relaunch loop in the wake-watch runner would break this pattern fleet-wide.

No settled deals, no operational history — swing signals unvalidated

Agent has never reached a trading wake (wakes=1, all setup). Mission correctness (fade dislocations via trailing averages) is entirely unverified. settled_deals=not-indexed.

Once process supervisor is in place and agent restarts, monitor the first 3 operational wakes to confirm price-sample accumulation and signal logic before expecting deals.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

flat wallet — all tokens at 0, need basket to fund any deal or post bait

16 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1780953888; next poll 75s

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null for 4 consecutive cycles; sole wake at 06-08T19:12 posted basket-buy intents (8 USDC each across ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) filled by LP-Maker — not active mispricing captures; 0 tokens spent in last 5h; 0 open intents

No watcher installed — wake_script_source=null; no trigger fires

MISSING: book-scan trigger for LP-Maker off-mid swaps

MISSING: near-decided binary scanner (option-writer put 0xf3 at $1,648.25 expiring imminently, uncaptured)

MISSING: fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

Sole fill counterparty for all 6 deals; 12 live swaps with 41-45min TTL are the primary vulture target pool

Put 0xf3 ($1,648.25 strike, 0.1 USDC) expiring ~20min from Step-1 is a near-decided option vulture is designed to take

wake_script_source=null — no watcher installed at all; nothing to evaluate

Last wake posted rebalancer-style basket buys rather than scanning for mispriced quotes or near-decided binaries — off-mission even when alive

No fallback timer; no book-scan trigger; no binary near-decided filter

SDK epidemic: crashed agents do not self-recover

vulture-andrew is one of 8/12 agents with armed=false/pidAlive=false; 60min/cycle deterioration without any self-restart mechanism across the fleet

Platform-level: implement agent self-restart or watchdog process in the SDK; routing this fix through core unblocks all 8 crashed agents at once

wake_script_source=null — watcher never reinstalled

Fourth consecutive cycle with no installed watcher; vulture cannot self-wake, scan, or act regardless of market conditions

Reinstall a wake script targeting LP-Maker's book for off-mid swaps and option/binary near-decided checks; add a 20-30min fallback timer

Last wake executed rebalancer pattern, not vulture pattern

06-08T19:12 wake posted 'rebalance-buy intents 50-55' (8 USDC/asset across basket) — passive buys LP-Maker fills at will; this is not mispricing capture. Mission requires TAKING other agents' mistakes, not posting standard buy orders.

Rewrite wake logic to identify and TAKE specific mispriced quotes (LP-Maker off-mid) and near-decided binaries/options rather than posting basket rebalances

SDK EPIDEMIC, LP ISOLATED

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Option-Writer (12 settled) + Vulture (6 settled, pre-crash) + Bear-Yosher (1) + Arb-Hunter-Tom (1) + Momentum-Nikita (1)

LP-Maker sole active hub; all 5 swap counterparties now crashed — 12 fresh inten

Deal #3 status='live', unmanaged — Bear-Yosher 596min crashed, cannot respond to

Polymarket-Ljuba → (arb-hunter-tom DEAD · vulture-andrew DEAD · mimic-ljuba ALIVE but neither bet in ANCHORS)

Intents #32 and #89 unfilled 517+ min; both ITM; expiry 16:00 UTC Jun-9 (~671min

Option-Writer-Matheus → (option-taker-matheus NEVER STARTED · vulture-andrew DEAD)

5 consecutive unfilled intents (0xd5→0xe6→0xf3→258→272); current ETH call $1,665

SDK epidemic: armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null across 8 agents with no self-recovery

LP-Maker's 12-swap fresh batch faces zero live takers; Polymarket-Ljuba's ITM bets expire untaken; Option-Writer has no

arb-hunter-tom 529min, vulture-andrew 506min, bear-yosher 596min, momentum-nikita 651min, rebalancer-lior 678min, stacker-massimo 526min, swing-nikita 915min — all armed=false/pidAlive=false, 4+ conse

arb-hunter-tom crashed 529min (sole natural binary taker for Polymarket)

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k) and #89 (ETH<$1700) both currently ITM (BTC ~$63,050, ETH ~$1,651) but unfilled; will expire at 1

Intent #32 txHash 0xe0bee8 posted W1 18:03 Jun-8; intent #89 txHash 0xe09e09 posted W2 20:01 Jun-8; polymarket-ljuba nextFallbackMin=922 vs 671min to expiry; mimic-ljuba alive but ANCHORS array exclud

option-taker-matheus never initialized (0 wakes, null wake_script_source, $0.15 bootstrap spend, 17 cycles dead)

Option-Writer's entire options book is permanently buyer-absent; 5 consecutive repricing attempts (ATM→OTM→ATM ladder) p

option-writer 12 settled deals = all swaps with LP-Maker; 0 option fills all-time; reliableCounterparties=0; option-taker-matheus armed=false/pidAlive=false/wakes=0 across 17 cycles

Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded flat prior in hasEdge()

Took BTC 'above $65k in 24h' side at oracle $63,383 (true probability ~10–15% per w5 log); the logged '+22pp locked edge

w5 log: oracle $63,383 vs $65k strike, own estimate ~10–15% true prob; FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher settled; rootCause class=mispriced

Bear-Yosher 596min crashed with active BinaryBet in live settlement window

Deal #3 (↔ Mimic-Ljuba, ETH directional bet) sits unmanaged — settlement outcome depends entirely on on-chain automatic

settled_deals_detail: Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba [BinaryBet] status='live'; bear-yosher watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, last_wake_min_ago=596

SDK epidemic: 8/12 agents dead, zero self-recovery

8 agents are armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null, crash durations 506–915min (swing-nikita fleet record), advancing +60min each cycle with no recovery signal in any agent. Effective fleet is 4 agents. This is a platform-layer failure — no individual agent fix addresses it.

swing-nikita 915min, rebalancer-lior 678min, bear-yosher 596min, momentum-nikita 651min, arb-hunter-tom 529min, stacker-massimo 526min, vulture-andrew 506min — all confirmed by armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null across 4+ conse

Implement SDK-level supervisor/watchdog: detect armed=false+pidAlive=false+nextFallbackMin=null and restart the agent process. This single change restores 8 agents and is the highest-leverage move available.

Polymarket-Ljuba ITM bets expire at 16:00 UTC with no live taker and late fallback

Intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 10 USDC) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 10 USDC) expire 16:00 UTC Jun-9 (~671min). BTC ~$63,050 and ETH ~$1,651 mean both are currently ITM for polymarket-ljuba — uncollected winnings if they expire. Primary taker arb-hunter-tom is 529min dead; secondary vulture-andrew 506min dead; mimic-ljuba alive but bet #89 absent from its ANCHORS. Critically: polymarket-ljuba's nextFallbackMin=922, which fires AFTER the 16:00 UTC deadli

Open book: both intents at 671m TTL; arb-hunter-tom armed=false/pidAlive=false; polymarket-ljuba nextFallbackMin=922 > 671min to expiry; mimic-ljuba ANCHORS excludes bet #89 per Step-2 summary

Immediately verify polymarket-ljuba's watcher contains an explicit T-5min expiry trigger (not just the 922min fallback). If absent, add one now. Medium-term: restore arb-hunter-tom via SDK watchdog.

Option-Writer: structural zero-buyer market across 5 intents

5 consecutive unfilled option intents (0xd5→0xe6→0xf3→258→272) covering ATM and OTM ranges, 1.5–4hr durations each. The agent's W19 pivot to ATM pricing correctly reasons about strike placement but misidentifies the root cause: option-taker-matheus has never initialized (0 wakes, null script, 17 cycles) and vulture-andrew is 506min dead. No repricing changes the outcome when there are literally zero buyers.

option-writer reliableCounterparties=0; 12 settled deals = 100% swaps with LP-Maker; option-taker-matheus wake_script_source=null, wakes=0 across 17 cycles; current ETH call $1,665.4 strike, ~11min TTL at capture

Initialize option-taker-matheus — write wake script and trigger first wake. This is the single fix that unblocks the entire options market.

LP-Maker adverse selection: -$59.67 PnL on oracle-mid pricing

15+ fills but -$59.67 realized PnL. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool, accelerating). Oracle-mid zero-spread pricing allows informed takers to cross exclusively when they hold directional edge, leaving LP-Maker short the better leg. The clean recovery (12/12 cancels + 12/12 reposts) confirms operational correctness — the loss is a pricing design issue.

lp-maker summary: PnL -$59.67, token burn $16.83/5h; 3 settled deals this cycle; rootCause evidence cites oracle-mid pricing with informed taker flow from option-writer and arb-hunter-tom

Add ±0.3–0.5% spread above oracle-mid in LP-Maker's pricing configuration (agent CLAUDE.md change). Prioritize after the SDK watchdog fix so counterparties are alive to compete.

Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 produces fake edge on directional bets

Hardcoded flat prior passes hasEdge() regardless of oracle price vs strike. Took BTC 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true probability); logged '+22pp locked edge' is arithmetically impossible under a correct model at this price distance. Any bet where true probability diverges from 50% will be mispriced in the same direction.

w5 log: oracle $63,383 vs $65k strike, own estimated true prob ~10–15%; FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded in wake script; deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher taker-side deep OTM; rootCause class=mispriced

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with oracle-calibrated probability (e.g., log-normal or distance-to-strike heuristic). This is a one-variable change in mimic-ljuba's wake script.

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet live and unmanaged

Deal #3 is status='live' with bear-yosher 596min crashed. ETH has moved directionally in bear-yosher's favor per Step-2, but the agent cannot trigger or confirm settlement. Outcome depends on whether the contract settles automatically on-chain.

settled_deals_detail: Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba [BinaryBet] status='live'; bear-yosher armed=false, pidAlive=false, last_wake_min_ago=596

Confirm BinaryBet settlement is automatic on-chain (no agent action required). If not, manually trigger settlement. Long-term: restore bear-yosher via SDK watchdog.

Build SDK watchdog: detect armed=false+pidAlive=false+nextFallbackMin=null and auto-restart agent process. Restores 8/12 crashed agents and unblocks every downstream market freeze. Highest-leverage single change in the fleet.

Verify Polymarket-Ljuba watcher has explicit T-5min expiry trigger before 16:00 UTC Jun-9 — nextFallbackMin=922 fires after deadline; both ITM bets (#32 BTC<$64k, #89 ETH<$1700) at risk of expiring uncollected.

Initialize option-taker-matheus: write wake script and trigger first wake. The options market has had zero buyers across 17 cycles and 5 unfilled intents; this is the only fix for that market.

Fix Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 → oracle-calibrated probability. One-line change to wake script; eliminates systematic mispricing on any bet where oracle price diverges from the strike midpoint.

Add ±0.3–0.5% spread to LP-Maker oracle-mid pricing to reduce adverse selection (-$59.67 PnL, 12.2% token pool burn in 5h). Stage after SDK watchdog so live counterparties can compete on the spread.

Structurally identical to last run: 4 agents alive (lp-maker, option-writer, mimic-ljuba, polymarket-ljuba), 8 crashed — swing-nikita now 913min offline (fleet record), all crashed agents adding ~60min/cycle with zero self-recovery; only change is LP-Maker's fresh 12-intent batch and Vulture's pre-c

SDK epidemic: 8/12 agents armed=false/pidAlive=false, crash durations 500–913min, no self-recovery mechanism — swing-nikita (913min), rebalancer-lior (676min), bear-yosher (594min) all worsening ~60mi

Option-Writer ETH call ($1,665.4 strike, 0.15 USDC premium, 22min left at data capture) — option-taker-matheus (sole natural buyer) is dead; likely another unfilled expiry

LP-Maker's fresh 12-swap batch (48–50min TTL, ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT pairs) posted into a taker pool where 8/12 potential counterparties are crashed

Polymarket-Ljuba bets #32 (BTC<$64k) and #89 (ETH<$1700) expire at 16:00 UTC (~683min); T-5min trigger must fire at 15:55 UTC — arb-hunter-tom (natural taker) is dead

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet marked 'live' with bear-yosher 594min crashed — settlement outcome and agent response capacity uncertain

Dead 527min (+60min from last run), SDK crash confirmed. Polymarket-Ljuba's open bets (#32 BTC<$64k, #89 ETH<$1700, expiring in ~683min) are the natural arb target — given BTC is currently ~$63,050 (inferred from LP-Maker ask) and ETH ~$1,6

Dead 594min with BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba position 'live'. What is the settlement mechanics exposure: does bear-yosher need to respond at expiry, and is it at risk of a bad outcome precisely because it can't act? Confirm whether the 'BinaryB

12 fresh swaps posted (48–50min TTL). With 8/12 counterparties crashed, which specific pairs (ETH, BTC, SSV, sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT) have a live counterparty who could realistically fill them in this window, and is LP-Maker's posting volume ca

Armed (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=899). BinaryBet ↔ Bear-Yosher is live. Has the hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 been corrected since last summary? Given BTC at ~$63,050 (well below the $64k threshold), is Mimic's position on the 'above $65k' s

Dead 649min, 8+ consecutive dead cycles, zero state change across every prior run. Is there any residual signal — last known intent, partial wake log, or script trace — that suggests a self-recovery path, or is this confirmed to require a m

Dead 16+ cycles, 0 wakes ever. Option-Writer just posted an ETH call ($1,665.4 strike, 22min left) that option-taker is the sole designed buyer for. Tally: how many option writes (calls + puts) have been posted by option-writer since option

Active (nextFallbackMin=54, 12 deals). The ETH call ($1,665.4, 22min) is nearly expired. Since the strategy shift to 4hr terms, have any option writes been taken by anyone, or does Option-Taker's permanent absence mean the option engine pro

Armed (nextFallbackMin=924). Bets #32 (BTC<$64k) and #89 (ETH<$1700) expire at 16:00 UTC in ~683min. With BTC implied at ~$63,050 (inside the <$64k range) and ETH at ~$1,651 (inside the <$1700 range), both bets appear currently in-the-money

Dead 676min. LP-Maker BTC ask is now 0.0002 BTC → 12.61 USDC (implying ~$63,050/BTC) vs Lior's last implied bid of ~$63,348 — gap was ~$348 last run. Has the gap narrowed, widened, or held, and is there any evidence the oracle or LP-Maker p

Dead 524min. Prior confirmed: LP-Maker sNVDA ask ~$210 vs stacker ceiling ~$208.80 (oracle×1.005) — ~$1.20 gap. Has the sNVDA oracle price or LP-Maker's sNVDA ask (12.45 USDC → 0.06 sNVDA = ~$207.50/sNVDA implied) shifted since last run, an

913min dead — fleet's longest offline streak by a wide margin. Warmup watcher script was confirmed correctly written last run. Has absolutely anything changed since last summary (any log, partial arm, script update), or is this a confirmed

Dead 564min. LP-Maker just posted 12 fresh swap intents across 8 pairs (48–50min TTL). Assess the mispricing gap: LP-Maker gives 0.008 ETH → wants $13.31 USDC (implying ~$1,663.75/ETH) vs oracle ~$1,651 — is that spread wide enough that vul

SDK epidemic root cause: 8 agents show identical armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null after 500–913min with zero self-recovery — isolate and patch the watcher process crash vector; this is

option-taker-matheus: manually restart immediately — option-writer is actively posting calls/puts (ETH call expiring in ~22min at data capture) and option-taker has never woken; every option write exp

swing-nikita: manually restart — 913min offline, correctly written warmup script, zero self-recovery path; it will not come back without intervention

Polymarket-Ljuba bets expire at 16:00 UTC (~683min from now): confirm T-5min trigger is queued and will fire at 15:55 UTC; arb-hunter-tom is dead and cannot take near-decided odds at expiry

Prioritized manual restarts by opportunity cost: bear-yosher (live BinaryBet position at risk, 594min dead), rebalancer-lior (BTC cross-opportunity waiting, 676min dead), vulture-andrew (LP fresh batc