account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary bets. Best swap near-miss #1280 +271bps unaffordable. SSV +34bps gap has no matching affordable intent on book

Summary: Deal counter holds at 11 — no net-new fills confirmed. The 3 LP-Maker-Matheus entries visible in the detail list are pre-existing history re-surfaced by a wider API window; the counter is the ground truth. Watcher resurrection is genuine (armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=5), but the edge drought continues: w174–w191 = 18 consecutive waits. Binary bet

Watcher is back and healthy (nextFallbackMin=5); 11 deals unchanged across 18 consecutive waits (w174–w191). Bear-yosher's crash eliminated the primary binary bet surface; SSV-sell gap appears (+38bps at w184, live at w185) but clip size repeatedly exceeds the agent's 1.7714 SSV balance. No fill is the correct output given real constraints — this is a market/counterparty problem, not agent logic failure.

Binary bet surface: bear-yosher 692 min dark, zero new BinaryBet intents (BINARY_BET_HASHES set in watcher unused since bear-yosher crash). Swap surface: w184 'SSV sell at +38bps but position too small for resting clip'; w185 'SSV sell gap live but position too small'; w186–w191 bestTake=null, BTC i

Sound, solving the right problem. The agent correctly identifies its two live surfaces (binary bets, SSV-sell swaps), applies the CEX-oracle gap floor (10bps), and self-diagnoses recurring blockers (BTC unapproved, SSV clip oversize, direction reversal at w190). No churn — each wake adds a distinct observation. The only concern: the agent has flagged the SSV clip mismatch for 7+ wakes without esca

New intent with intentId > HIGH_WATER (1286) matching binary bet template hash OR SSV-sell legs (clip ≤ 1.7714 SSV, implied ≥ ssvCex×1.001)

MISSING: no trigger for bear-yosher resurrection (new binary bet supply would only fire if intentId > HIGH_WATER, which is correct, but no proactive check for b

8 of 9 visible settled deals; primary swap counterparty; posts SSV-sell intents arb-hunter-tom targets

Sole binary bet supply source; arb-hunter-tom's highest-edge surface depends on bear-yosher posting near-decided bets

health=stuck, 692 min dark — effectively

1 historical settled deal; current 4.96 USDC→BTC intent is sub-minimum lot (likely expires unfilled)

health=ok but current intent unactionabl

Taker-only like arb-hunter-tom; no swap supply posted

SSV-sell gap at +38bps (w184) and again at w185 — technically visible edge but clip exceeded 1.7714 SSV balance, making it structurally unactionable at current position size. These are near-misses due to inventory constraint, not mispricing or watcher blindness. No binary bet opportunities since bear-yosher crash. No other takeable intents identified across w184–w191.

HIGH_WATER=1286 baseline filter correctly suppresses stale intents — fires only on genuinely new flow

Binary bet detection via template hash set is precise and zero-LLM

SSV-sell filter checks both clip ≤ SSV_BALANCE and implied ≥ ssvCex×1.001 — guards against arbing at a loss

30-min hard fallback ensures the agent never goes dark even in a dead book

Explicitly skips WETH/mBTC/stocks as 'structurally unaffordable' — reduces churn correctly given known inventory

SSV_BALANCE=1.7714 is hardcoded — correct now but will silently mis-fire if balance changes (fill or withdrawal) without a watcher restart

No minimum clip size filter on the SSV-sell leg: watcher fires, agent wakes, discovers clip oversize, waits — 7+ consecutive times; a pre-check in the watcher (

Add clip pre-check inside the mSSV-sell watcher branch: compute clip = Number(wantsLeg.amountHuman) and skip fireWake if clip > SSV_BALANCE (currently 1.7714). This collapses the SSV near-miss loop that has burned 7+ wakes and $0+ in tokens

SSV clip pre-check missing in watcher — repeated wasted wakes

Watcher fires on any SSV-sell intent regardless of clip size; agent then wakes, computes clip, finds it exceeds 1.7714 SSV balance, and waits. This has happened ≥7 consecutive wakes (w184–w191). The check belongs in the watcher before fireWake.

In the mSSV-sell branch, compute clip = Number(wantsLeg.amountHuman) and add `if (clip > SSV_BALANCE) continue;` before fireWake. Also fetch live SSV balance from belt on watcher init rather than hardcoding.

Binary bet surface frozen by bear-yosher crash (692 min dark)

Arb-hunter-tom's primary high-edge surface depends on bear-yosher posting near-decided BinaryBets. Bear-yosher has been dark 692 min; BINARY_BET_HASHES set in the watcher is dormant. No fix available to arb-hunter-tom — this requires bear-yosher resurrection or a new binary bet maker.

Resurrect bear-yosher (separate action). No agent-level change possible for arb-hunter-tom here.

SSV inventory too small to take available clips — stale position constraint

SSV_BALANCE=1.7714 is below the resting clip sizes on the book (w184/w185 both report clip oversize). Agent has not acted to grow SSV inventory despite 18 waits identifying this as the recurring blocker.

Evaluate whether mission permits acquiring SSV via a delivered swap to reach a clip-eligible position size (e.g., buy 2–3 SSV via LP-Maker-Matheus). If yes, add a one-time rebalance intent to the agent's CLAUDE.md logic; if no, lower the feasibility expectation on SSV surface and document it.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Summary: Now 694 min dark (+120 min since last summary). No resurrection artifacts: armed=false, pidAlive=false, open_intents=0 (intent 869 expired unfilled during downtime), tokens_5h_usd=0. The w41 4h fallback (~15:17 UTC June 10) definitively dead — 7.5h past that timestamp. Deal 75 betExpiry 1781139624 (June 11 00:58 UTC) is NOW ~2h away — a live time-sensitive e

694 min dark, no sign of self-recovery. Deal 75 (betExpiry June 11 00:58 UTC) is ~2h out — the dead watcher cannot fire the planned 5-min-early alert. Manual wake needed now or deal 75 settlement window is missed. The 7 Bear↔Mimic settled entries remain pre-crash; 17 total deals is unchanged.

Watcher process died twice in succession: w40 noted 'PID 6802 gone', w41 re-armed a new watcher, that watcher also died (armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null now). 4h fallback set at w41 (~15:17 UTC June 10) did not fire — process died before it could. No wallet activity (tokens_5h_usd=0)

The agent's logic through w41 is sound — it correctly maintained the exactly-one-resting invariant, tracked deal 75's betExpiry, set adverse-price thresholds, and re-armed on each wake. The failure is not reasoning quality but watcher process survival: two consecutive watcher deaths in ~4h windows is a platform/runtime fault, not a mission or strategy error.

Intent 869 fill or expiry (expired ~hours ago, watcher was dead)

New BinaryBet on book (seenBinaryIds baseline, fires on delta)

Deal 75 near-expiry: fires at 1781139324ms (00:53 UTC June 11)

4h fallback (~15:17 UTC June 10) — MISSED, process dead

All 7 BinaryBet settled deals are Bear↔Mimic; mimic-ljuba takes BELOW-strike BinaryBets bear-yosher posts — direct dependency

health=ok, 16 deals, awake — but starved

Arb-hunter takes near-decided binary bets; could theoretically take bear-yosher's BELOW-strike posts if sufficiently near expiry

armed=true/pidAlive=true, 11 deals, acti

Swap-only counterparty; no BinaryBet role

Intent 869 expired unfilled during ~11.5h dark window — no bear anchor visible to mimic-ljuba or arb-hunter for that entire period. New BinaryBet detection was also blind (watcher dead), so any externally-posted BinaryBet bear-yosher could have taken went undetected. Exact count unmeasurable: watcher blind to book since w41.

Fires on own intent resolution (869) — correct trigger for a maker maintaining exactly-one-resting invariant

Scans for new BinaryBets via delta set (newMatches against seenBinaryIds) — precise, no false positives on stale book

Adverse price gates (+1.5% ETH/BTC) are correctly directional for a crypto-bear: exits if conviction invalidated

Deal 75 near-expiry firing 5 min early (DEAL75_FIRE_AT_MS) is a thoughtful settlement prep trigger

4h fallback present; zero-LLM; 60s poll cadence appropriate for crypto price volatility

No self-resurrection path: if the watcher process dies (as it has twice), nothing brings it back — armWatcher has no supervisor

fallbackMs=4h is the ONLY out-of-band recovery, and it failed when the process died before 4h elapsed

Add a cron-level fallback independent of the watcher process — e.g., a 2h system cron that checks pidAlive and triggers a manual wake if false. The in-process 4h fallback cannot save a dead process; only an external watchdog can.

Watcher process dies without external resurrection path

Bear-yosher's watcher has died twice in succession (w40 PID 6802, w41 successor). armWatcher's 4h fallback cannot fire if the process is dead. No supervisor, cron, or external watchdog exists to detect pidAlive=false and restart. This is a fleet-wide platform gap — any agent whose watcher dies is pe

Implement a fleet-level watchdog (cron or supervisor) that polls pidAlive for all agents on a 15-30 min interval and triggers a wake on false. This is a core/SDK concern, not per-agent.

Deal 75 betExpiry in ~2h — time-critical, watcher cannot fire

Deal 75 betExpiry is 1781139624 (June 11 00:58 UTC), ~2h from now. The w41 watcher was set to fire at 00:53 UTC (5 min early) for settlement prep. With watcher dead, this event will be missed unless the agent is manually woken before 00:53 UTC.

Manual wake of bear-yosher immediately. On next wake the agent should detect deal 75 near-expiry and handle settlement. Priority window closes in ~2h.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 15th consecutive null cycle — zero delta since last run. The concrete blocker is confirmed: address=null in the snapshot record, meaning no wallet has ever been provisioned for this agent. Without a funded address, no intent can be posted, no watcher can operate with real keys, and no on-chain trace can exist. Counterpart index-taker is identically address=n

address=null is the root blocker — no keypair has been provisioned. With $0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, and no on-chain trace across 15 cycles, this agent has never executed. Counterpart index-taker is identically null, meaning even fixing the maker alone won't produce deals.

address=null in snapshot (confirmed via snapshots.jsonl); 0 wakes, 0 tokens, wake_script_source=null across all 15 observed cycles; index-taker also address=null — the full IndexBasket pair is unprovisioned

No reasoning to evaluate — the agent has never executed. The undeployed state is a pre-boot infrastructure gap (no wallet), not a logic or reasoning failure.

MISSING: no current.ts — wake_script_source=null, no watcher loop exists

MISSING: no funded wallet address — can't post intents or sign transactions even if watcher existed

Designed as the SHORT-side taker for LONG IndexBasket intents this agent would post

also address=null, also 0 wakes — identi

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — but moot, as no other agent posts IndexBasket intents for this agent to respond to either

wake_script_source=null — no watcher script exists at all

No fallback, no cadence, no triggers — nothing to judge because nothing was ever written

Provision a wallet (assign address + fund with USDC), then author a minimal current.ts that wakes on a fixed cadence (e.g. every 30 min), checks for an existing open LONG IndexBasket intent on the book, and posts a new one if none is live —

No wallet address provisioned

address=null in the agent registry — the agent has no keypair and cannot sign or fund any on-chain intent. This is the single concrete first-boot blocker.

Generate or assign a wallet address for index-maker, fund it with USDC, and register the address in the agent config

No wake script (current.ts missing)

wake_script_source=null across all 15 cycles — the autonomous loop has never been authored. Without it, the agent cannot self-start even after wallet provisioning.

Write current.ts: cadence-based wake (e.g. every 20-30 min), check open book for existing IndexBasket intent, post a fresh LONG if none live, publish contract source to indexer — zero-LLM, timed fallback

Paired counterpart index-taker identically undeployed

index-taker also shows address=null, 0 wakes, $0 tokens — the SHORT side of the market doesn't exist. Fixing only the maker produces posted intents that will expire unfilled indefinitely.

Provision and deploy index-taker in the same pass as index-maker — both need address + current.ts before the IndexBasket market can clear

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 15th consecutive null cycle — zero delta. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, unchanged. Funnel grew 1274→1292 (+18 intents this cycle), still zero IndexBasket. No independent activation path exists: index-taker is a pure downstream responder to index-maker, which has health=unknown and has never posted a single

Index-taker cannot activate: it requires index-maker to post a LONG IndexBasket intent (0 of 1,292 funnel intents are IndexBasket), a verifiable source on the indexer, and an ACCEPT audit verdict — none of which are reachable while index-maker has health=unknown and 0 lifetime deals. This is a structural upstream block, not an index-taker fault.

1,292 total funnel intents observed; 0 IndexBasket across 15 cycles. index-maker: health=unknown, 0 deals, 0 wakes. No IndexBasket intent has ever appeared on the open book.

Unmeasurable — agent has never woken (0 wakes, $0 tokens, wake_script_source=null). No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no watcher installed (wake_script_source=null) — agent cannot self-activate even if index-maker posts an IndexBasket intent

Sole upstream — posts LONG IndexBasket; index-taker takes the SHORT side. Without index-maker, no trade is structurally possible.

unknown — health=unknown, 0 lifetime dea

none — 0 IndexBasket intents have ever appeared on the book across 15 cycles

No watcher installed (wake_script_source=null) — agent is permanently inert regardless of upstream state

Even if index-maker activated today, index-taker has no mechanism to detect and respond

Moot until index-maker is operational. If index-maker is activated, deploy a watcher that polls the book for IndexBasket intents and fires on any new LONG IndexBasket posting — but address index-maker first or decommission both.

index-maker never activated — structurally blocks index-taker across 15 cycles

1,292 total funnel intents posted with 0 IndexBasket. Both index-maker and index-taker show health=unknown, 0 wakes, $0 tokens. The entire IndexBasket market has never functioned.

Decision point: (a) diagnose and activate index-maker (install its watcher, fund it, confirm indexer source publishing works), which unblocks index-taker downstream; or (b) decommission both agents if the IndexBasket market is abandoned. At 15 null cycles with no remediation, option (b) deserves exp

index-taker has no watcher — cannot self-activate

wake_script_source=null means even a functioning index-maker would not trigger index-taker. No watcher = no activation path even if upstream unblocks.

Install a watcher that polls for open IndexBasket intents on the book and fires on new LONG postings. Low priority until index-maker is confirmed operational.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

SSV oracle +0.99% (2.02→2.04) triggered volTerm=49.5bps: total δ=84.5bps. Inverted ask cancelled immediately. volTerm al

cluster #1281-#1286 expiry guard (~23:18 UTC) or new fillable swap | 50min fallback

Summary: Fleet's sole functioning liquidity hub. BTC ask gap RESOLVED in w88 (posted #1278 at +15.1bps, 12/12 full book achieved and held through w89/w90) — the key open question from last run is answered. Open intents consolidated 15→11 confirming legacy dup cleanup is complete. Deals ticked 95→96 (+1); Arb-Hunter-Tom resurrection adds a net-new active counterparty.

96 deals, 12/12 full book, $11.85 realized PnL on $700 base — LP is performing its mission. BTC ask gap closed in w88; 15→11 dup consolidation confirms book is clean. The one active threat is concurrent-session inversion recurring on every oracle move, causing arb bleed and wasted wake cycles rather than fills.

12/12 quotes posted; 6 active counterparties (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, 0xBd6a…9863, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita); deal velocity limited by taker arrivals not LP quality. w85–w90 show 0 fills across multiple wakes despite tight quotes — thin taker side, not mispricing.

Sound and on-mission. w88 correctly diagnosed concurrent-session inversion (cancelled #1272 SSV +9.8bps inverted, #1274 dup sNVDA bid, #1273 dup SSV ask) and resolved it in one pass, achieving 12/12 full book. volTerm adjustments are quantitative (ETH 43.8bps, BTC 37.9bps, SSV 49.5bps) and mission-appropriate. Not churning — each wake either fills a gap, clears a stale quote, or correctly conclude

Cluster expiry guard: EXPIRY_FIRE_TS_SEC=1781133228 (~23:18 UTC) fires 5min before #1281–#1286 cluster expires

New fillable swap: newMatches() detects net-new intents where posterWants ∈ HOLD set

MISSING: inversion/spread-check trigger — concurrent-session inversions detected only at next poll (60s lag), causing arb bleed per event

Active arb taker; resurrection confirmed armed=true/pidAlive=true; appears 8× in recent deal list including w84 arb fill

Most frequent recent counterparty (~8 fills in tail); health=stuck but still settling LP intents

5 recent fills but current 4.96 USDC intent is sub-LP-minimum lot — won't clear until lior posts ≥12 USDC

2 recent fills; w23 20 USDC intent on book (18 min left) is above minimum

External wallet; 7 fills in recent tail — reliable taker source outside named fleet

Rebalancer-Lior's 4.96 USDC→BTC intent is sub-LP-minimum and correctly skipped. Swing-Nikita's 20 USDC intent (w23, 18 min left) is above minimum — watcher's newMatches() should fire on it if posted after last wake. No evidence of LP missing a fillable above-threshold intent.

Expiry cluster guard pins exact ts 1781133228 (5min before #1281–#1286 cluster) — no stale quotes

newMatches() on HOLD set: only fires on intents LP can profitably fill, not its own stale posts

60s poll interval — not sub-minute; patient cadence appropriate for 22-min avg gap

No oracle price guards (per playbook rule — avoids loop storms)

50min fallback ensures watcher doesn't go dark between clusters

No spread/inversion check: concurrent-session inversions (flagged w84, w87, w88) are discovered only at next 60s poll tick, allowing ~1min of arb exposure per e

Add an inversion detector in the watch loop: if any own bid's price ≥ own ask's price for the same asset (readable from open intents), fireWake('spread inverted — concurrent session detected') immediately rather than waiting up to 60s. This

Concurrent-session inversion recurs on every oracle move

w84, w87, w88 all report concurrent session posting inverted bids when oracle moves positive. Each event costs ~$0.076 arb loss plus a cleanup wake. Root: two watcher sessions posting simultaneously create crossed spreads. Watcher detects it reactively at next poll (up to 60s exposure).

Add inversion check in runWatchLoop body: compare own bid vs own ask prices per asset from readOpenIntents; fireWake immediately on cross. Also investigate why two concurrent watcher sessions arise — may need PID lock enforcement in armWatcher.

Token cost critical: $76.51/5h = 53.4% of pool

96 deals settling at $0.82/wake average; 87 wakes × $0.82 ≈ $71 but 5h cost is $76.51 with 80/87 repeat wakes. At this burn rate LP's token pool (~$143 implied at 53.4%) exhausts in ~5h. Repeat-wake rate 92% (80/87) suggests most wakes are maintenance not fills.

Core/SDK: add per-agent token budget cap and alert threshold. Agent-side: w85 correctly no-ops when nothing actionable — ensure repeat-wake suppression logic is consistently applied to avoid unnecessary LLM calls on zero-action wakes.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Zero ≥3pp taker-edge opportunities on board. Edge floor 3pp unmet; one deliberate move rule enforced. No BinaryBet flow

14 of 16 settled deals are BinaryBet↔Bear-Yosher; 1 custom↔Bear-Yosher; board has been empty of BinaryBets across wakes w55–w60 post-crash. option-writer-matheus (16 deals) posts Options not BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba (2 deals) posts small-shade binary but zero BinaryBet-template intents visible o

Intent #1088 filled or expired (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet templateHash match on open book (newMatches scan, 60s poll)

66-min fallback (calibrated to #1088 ~18:47 UTC expiry)

Only consistent BinaryBet poster; source of 14/16 Mimic deals

Posts Options (different template); Mimic's watcher filters for BinaryBet templateHash only — correct exclusion given mission

Mission includes 'make a small-shade binary only' — could post BinaryBet-template intents, but none visible on book this cycle

Takes near-decided binaries — could take Mimic's self-posted #1088 if it becomes near-decided; not a flow source for Mimic

Fires on ownIntentResolved for #1088 — correct: Mimic must act when its live exposure settles

Filters strictly by BinaryBet templateHash — no false fires on swaps or options

66-min fallback calibrated to #1088 expiry (~18:47 UTC) — tight, purposeful, not a generic poll

60s poll cadence is appropriate for binary bet flow (not sub-minute spam)

seenIds baseline pattern avoids firing on stale book state at startup

No trigger for new intents from polymarket-ljuba's binary-making leg — if ljuba posts a BinaryBet, the newMatches scan catches it, but there's no direct subscri

100% counterparty concentration on Bear-Yosher

14/16 deals are ↔Bear-Yosher. When Bear is down, Mimic's copy-trading engine has nothing to copy and degrades to self-posting directional bets — a different, unvalidated strategy. Net drawdown is $36.38 (-36% of $100 starting capital) across 16 deals with only $0.59 realized PnL, suggesting the mirr

Extend Mimic's CLAUDE.md to recognize polymarket-ljuba and option-writer-matheus as secondary binary flow sources; add logic to monitor their posted intents as copy targets when Bear is offline. Also review whether the $0.59 PnL / 16 deals win-rate is acceptable or signals systematic mispricing in t

Self-posting directional bets is a mission stretch

w61 self-originated a BTC-bear directional bet (#1088) when the board was empty. The mission is 'mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets' — not 'post original bets when flow is absent.' This is Mimic acting as a maker, not a copy-trader, without validated edge.

Add an explicit fallback policy to CLAUDE.md: if board is empty for N consecutive wakes, hold capital rather than self-post, OR gate self-posting on a stricter conviction threshold (e.g. ≥10pp edge, recent on-chain price momentum confirmation).

Binary bet flow collapses when Bear-Yosher is offline

Bear is the only consistent BinaryBet poster. Its crash leaves Mimic, arb-hunter-tom, and polymarket-ljuba with no binary flow to act on. 10 live Bear↔Mimic deals are resolving from pre-crash inventory — after they settle, the binary market is structurally frozen until Bear restarts.

Restart Bear-Yosher. If that's not immediate, incentivize polymarket-ljuba to increase its 'small-shade binary' posting frequency as a bridge supply — currently 2 lifetime deals is insufficient to sustain Mimic.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

SSV is the decisive momentum leader across all lookbacks (fast 1h: 2.78pp, fast 9h: 2.07pp, slow 24h: 4.17pp). Book offe

Summary: Building on w17 (13:43 UTC, 428 min ago): SSV was persistent near-leader, gap threshold unmet, sNVDA correctly filtered as laggard. Nothing has changed in the market signal — agent has been correctly dormant since w17. The prior-flagged baseline-staleness issue has grown: the w17 watcher process captured its baseline at first-poll ~428 min ago and has been c

Agent correctly idle through 17 wakes with no 2pp leadership gap. The ~428-min-stale baseline is the active risk: the current watcher is measuring momentum vs ancient prices, but the fallback in ~57 min restarts the LLM cycle and deploys a fresh watcher — the issue is self-healing. 1 settled deal, -$0.73 realized PnL reflects thin market, not mission failure.

Intent #745 ($51.25 USDC SSV swap, 1h window) expired unfilled due to illiquidity; re-posted with 8h window, still unfilled. LP-Maker-Matheus (94 deals, 10 live quotes) is the only swap hub — but timing/expiry windows have prevented a fill. No open intents currently.

Sound reasoning solving the right problem. Correctly applies 2pp relative-gap filter (not absolute move), correctly identifies SSV as near-leader vs sNVDA as laggard. The agent is not churning — it's correctly filtering noise across 17 wakes. The risk is measurement quality (stale baseline) rather than flawed logic.

Relative gap ≥2pp between any two assets' returns vs baseline (60s poll)

MISSING: baseline-age cap — no re-capture if baseline is >N hours old; currently 428 min stale with no refresh until fallback fires

Sole swap hub with 10 live quotes and $65.96/5h burn — should fill a delivered swap at momentum-sized notional (>>12 USDC floor)

Natural counterparty if momentum direction is opposite to Lior's rebalance target, but lot-size mismatch (Lior posts 4 USDC vs momentum's ~5

Unmeasurable: the stale 428-min baseline means the watcher may have failed to fire on a legitimate momentum gap that opened and partially closed since 13:43 UTC. Without a rolling baseline, intermediate leadership separations ≥2pp are invisible to this watcher after the first reading.

Baseline captured from LIVE oracle at first poll — not hardcoded from prior wake; this was the correct fix

Measures relative gap between assets (leader vs runner-up), which is the actual decision variable for momentum rotation

Full 6-asset universe (BTC, ETH, SSV, sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT) matches the mission's 'hunt strongest mover'

Skips oracle-read failures rather than firing on incomplete data

4h fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient momentum agent; 60s poll is reasonable

No baseline-age cap: the baseline set at process start (now 428 min old) is never refreshed within a long-running loop — a 2pp gap that opened and closed since

w16 logs reference 'both lookbacks' but this script has only one baseline; the discrepancy suggests the LLM may be reasoning about a dual-lookback design that i

Add a baseline-age cap: if `Date.now() - baselineCapturedAt > 2 * 3600_000`, null out `baseline` so the next poll re-captures it live. This converts the current 'stale until fallback' behavior into a self-refreshing sliding window without c

Baseline ages unboundedly within a single watcher process

The baseline captured at first poll is now 428 min old. A momentum gap that opened and closed in that window was invisible to the watcher. The fallback in ~57 min will fix the current staleness, but every 4h cycle has the same decay — by hour 3 the baseline is already 3h stale.

In the watcher loop, track `baselineCapturedAt = Date.now()` and reset `baseline = null` when age exceeds 2h. The next poll re-derives from live oracle. No structural change to the trigger logic required.

'Both lookbacks' mentioned in w16 but not implemented in w17 script

w16 log: 'Edge threshold unmet on both lookbacks.' The live w17 script has one baseline (first-poll snapshot). Either the LLM is hallucinating a dual-lookback it didn't deploy, or w16 used a different script. If dual-lookback (e.g., 30min + 4h baseline) was intended, it improves signal quality but i

Audit w16's deployed watcher source (if archived) against w17's. If dual-lookback was intentional, add a secondary rolling baseline (e.g., re-captured every 60 min) alongside the process-start baseline to confirm signal across timeframes.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Cheap optionality: tight-to-the-money put with 24h tail, thin premium on a volatile stock (sNVDA). Probability of 0.20 d

All 4 settled deals trace to option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). Writer's nextFallbackMin=1144 confirms ~19h of silence ahead; 0 audited options on book for 201 min. Taker watcher polls every 60s and has not fired — book is genuinely empty.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f…ad63) — detected via 60s poll of open book

Settle window: nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956, ~17:37 UTC June 11 — 5 min before deal #118 expiry)

23h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1141, fires ~16:52 UTC June 11 — ~45 min before settle window)

Sole option supplier; all 4 deals sourced here. Writer is resting (~19h nextFallbackMin=1144) — next posts expected around w27/w28.

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents — could theoretically compete for the same intents, but does not supply options

Fires on new audited-hash option intents — exactly the signal this taker needs; can't fire on generic book activity

Settle-window trigger (MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS) aligns the 23h fallback with deal #118 expiry — agent wakes just before settlement, not randomly

First-poll baseline (seenIntentIds=null guard) prevents false-fires on stale intents already taken

60s cadence appropriate for an option book that posts infrequently

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to deal #118's window. After deals #118/#119 settle, any future deal taken will have a different expiry — the settle-

Hardcoded settle-window timestamp goes stale after new deals

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 targets deal #118's expiry. Once #118/#119 settle and the agent takes a new option (different expiry), this check will never fire (past timestamp) — settle-timing precision is lost for all future deals.

Dynamically derive MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS each poll: read open deals, take min(expiry) - 300s. Store in a variable updated each loop iteration.

Single-supplier dependency on option-writer-matheus

4/4 deals from one counterparty. Writer is in a ~19h rest cycle (nextFallbackMin=1144). If writer crashes or shifts mission, taker has zero supply. No other agent currently posts audited-hash options.

Encourage a second option writer on the same audited template hash, or have option-writer-matheus post smaller batches more frequently so the taker has a steadier flow.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Book stable at $95.71, −4.29% drawdown (well below −20% halt). All engines running nominal. Waiting for marked signal.

vol spike ≥1% (any asset), new option intent, or 60-min fallback

Summary: sMSFT rotation (w41, 0x1091 @ 405/unit) remains the last trade; now 8 consecutive monitor-only wakes (w42–w49). ETH drifted −0.08% (1618.44→1617.16) and BTC −0.13% (61520.62→61439.38) since prior baselines — both well below the 1% fire threshold, confirming no vol event occurred. Book slipped further to $95.66–$95.71 (prior: $96.03, drawdown now ~−4.3%, far

No vol event since w45; ETH/BTC drifted <0.15%, Engine 1 correctly dark. The 60-min fallback is a heartbeat only — the watcher catches vol spikes every 60 s. Agent is well-behaved; the only missing counterparty is an option buyer (option-taker-matheus has 4 lifetime deals but no active option-buying intents visible on book).

Engine 1: 7 prior unfilled options, 0 open option intents on book now, option-taker-matheus (4 lifetime deals) is live but not posting option-buy requests. Engine 2: no ranking rotation, no allocation drift >5% — correctly idle. Market's fault, not agent's.

Sound and solving the right problem. The agent empirically validated Engine 1 pause (7 unfilled options = no demand signal); Engine 2 pause is correct (no drift trigger). Baseline prices updated each run. The monitor loop is disciplined — $0 token spend over 5 h is appropriate for a paused engine waiting on an exogenous trigger.

vol spike ≥1% on ETH/BTC/sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL (polled every 60 s)

new 'unknown'-kind intent on book (option buyer proxy)

new tradable intent in agent's universe (USDC/ETH/BTC/sNVDA/sMSFT/sAAPL)

MISSING: ranking rotation signal (Engine 2 could fire on a new worst-2 rotation without relying on the heartbeat)

Direct buyer for Engine 1 options; 4 lifetime deals, health=ok

alive but not posting option-buy intents

Swap counterparty for Engine 2 portfolio swaps; 96 deals, deep liquidity

Buys mispriced Options/BinaryBets; 2 deals — could take Engine 1 options if priced attractively vs Polymarket

none — no option-buy intents posted by anyone since w45; Engine 2 correctly idle (no drift). Watcher is monitoring the book for new intents every 60 s, so any opportunity appearing would be caught promptly.

Polls prices every 60 s — vol detection is fine-grained despite 60-min heartbeat label

Baseline prices updated to w49 actuals (ETH 1617.16, BTC 61439.38) each run

Covers all 5 assets in the trading universe

Option-buyer proxy via 'unknown' intent kind is a reasonable heuristic given no option-specific intent field

Zero-LLM, has fallback, can't fire on 'book non-empty' generically

No ranking-rotation trigger: Engine 2 could need to act if sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT/BTC/ETH worst-2 composition changes between heartbeats — currently only caught at 6

seenIntents baseline re-captured on every cold watcher start, creating a potential single-poll blind spot on restart

Add a Pyth Benchmarks ranking check (worst-2 composition) to the poll loop alongside the vol check — if ranking flips, fire immediately rather than waiting up to 60 min for the heartbeat to catch an Engine 2 rotation opportunity.

Engine 2 rotation not watcher-driven

Ranking changes (worst-2 of 5 assets) are only discovered at the 60-min fallback. A ranking flip between heartbeats could delay an Engine 2 rebalance trade by up to 60 min.

Add a lightweight ranking snapshot to the poll loop; if worst-2 composition differs from the cached snapshot, fireWake('ranking rotation: <old> → <new>').

Option pricing not adjusted for persistent no-demand signal

7 unfilled options prove the current premium is above market-clearing. Engine 1 is paused rather than repriced — correct given the agent's rules, but the pause is now open-ended with no re-entry price-discovery plan.

Consider a 'reduce premium by X% after N consecutive unfilled' rule so Engine 1 can re-enter at a market-clearing price rather than waiting indefinitely for a vol spike to justify current premium levels.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

sAAPL stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75) hit; new binary/option intent; fallback Jun11 20:00 UTC

Summary: Holding 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 entry (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / Jun12 20:00 UTC). Since last summary (+59 min, last_wake_min_ago 473→532), no new wakes — price has stayed inside the $277–$304 band for the full interval. Critical maintenance done: w26 (10:39 UTC) caught needsApproval=true and preemptively approved sAAPL on-chain (tx 0xf1458336d95b99f

Position is within band and exit mechanics are unblocked (approval tx confirmed w26). The 532-min dark stretch is structurally sound — the watcher fires on stop/forward price hits or new binary/option intents, and neither condition has triggered. Binary supply is frozen (bear-yosher crashed, 692 min dark), starving the taker side of the mission, but that's the market's problem not the agent's.

2 settled deals lifetime, settled_deals_detail empty, 0 open intents. bear-yosher (primary BinaryBet supplier) is crashed/armed=false for 692 min. No new binary/option intents have appeared to trigger a wake since w21 at 13:58 UTC.

Sound — solving the right problem. The agent correctly identified that the approval gap (w26) would have blocked the exit, fixed it preemptively, and resumed hold mode. The edge-erosion commentary (1.5–3.1%) is accurate convergence reasoning, not churn — the agent understands why edge shrinks as horizon approaches and is not re-deriving its position entry each wake. No spurious activity.

Blockchain nowTs ≥ horizonTs (Jun12 20:00 UTC = 1781294400)

New intent with kind=binary, option, OR unknown appears on book

Fallback: Jun11 20:00 UTC (1781208000), 24h before expiry — safety floor max(calculated, 4h)

Primary BinaryBet poster; polymarket-ljuba values these against Polymarket implied probs

CRASHED — armed=false/pidAlive=false, 69

Posts ETH/BTC options; 17 settled deals, health ok — active option supply polymarket-ljuba can evaluate

Primarily swap-focused; 96 deals, health ok — unlikely binary/option poster but possible

Unmeasurable for Polymarket-side valuation: watcher wakes on new book intents, but if bear-yosher posted nothing and option-writer-matheus posted nothing in the 532-min window, there was nothing to evaluate. On-book opportunity scan requires a wake — with zero triggering intents appearing, the agent correctly stayed dark.

Price-band triggers (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75) are precise, numeric, and fire immediately on oracle crossing — correct for a position-monitoring watcher

Horizon trigger uses blockchain nowTs against state.json horizonTs, with a hardcoded fallback — avoids clock drift and handles state corruption

Fallback to Jun11 20:00 UTC (24h before expiry) gives deliberate assessment window for maker candidates before the position must exit

Safety floor of max(calculated, 4h) prevents a negative FALLBACK_MS from producing an instant fire if the script runs after the fallback timestamp

New binary/option intent trigger ensures the taker-side mission can fire opportunistically without relying solely on the position-hold path

60s poll cadence is appropriate — price moves and new intents are worth checking at this frequency for a live position

kind === 'unknown' in the new-intent filter is too broad — 'unknown' could match uncategorized swap intents, causing spurious wakes that find nothing actionable

No check that a firing 'new binary/option intent' has sufficient liquidity or a counterparty structure the agent can actually evaluate — a dust-lot binary would

Narrow the 'unknown' kind filter: require at minimum that the intent has a field consistent with binary/option structure (e.g., presence of outcome, strike, or expiry fields) before fireWake — reduces spurious wakes from miscategorized swap

Binary supply frozen — bear-yosher crashed

bear-yosher is armed=false/pidAlive=false for 692 min. It is the primary BinaryBet poster that polymarket-ljuba evaluates against Polymarket probs. With it crashed, new mispriced binary opportunities cannot appear regardless of the watcher's alertness.

Resurrect bear-yosher (flash its watcher or manual kick); until then polymarket-ljuba's taker mission is structurally blocked on the binary side.

kind='unknown' trigger too broad

The new-intent watcher fires on kind === 'unknown' | 'binary' | 'option'. 'unknown' can include miscategorized swaps, causing LLM wakes that find nothing evaluable. 18 of 26 wakes are repeat (no-action) wakes — some fraction may be from this.

Add a structural field check (outcome/strike/expiry present) before fireWake on unknown-kind intents.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Escalation plan: oracle→+1.47%→+2.07%→+3%. 4 above-oracle failures, retail BTC sellers not materializing. Posting at hig

BTC intent #1280 resolves (fill/expiry ~23:08 UTC) or stocks open 13:45 UTC June 11

Summary: Premium-escalation misdiagnosis continues through w43: agent posted #1280 BTC at +3% premium (escalation ladder oracle→+1.47%→+2.07%→+3%) while current live lot is 4.96 USDC — still below the LP's 12 USDC fill floor. The core problem is unchanged since last summary: the agent treats every fill failure as a price-discovery problem and turns the premium dial,

4.96 USDC live BTC intent (#1280) will expire unfilled for the same reason as prior failures: LP floor ≥12 USDC rejects it regardless of the +3% premium the agent just escalated to. The agent has burned 5+ wakes and ~$1.09 in LLM cost this run iterating a pricing variable that isn't the binding constraint.

w38 4 USDC ETH expired; w40b 4 USDC BTC expired; w41 #1261 expired; w43 posts #1280 at +3% — all sub-12 USDC lots. LP-Maker-Matheus filled previous deals (6 in settled list) but current lot sizes have shrunk to ~4-5 USDC. The 4 consecutive above-oracle failures the agent itself acknowledges in w43 a

Disciplined-looking loop solving the wrong problem. The agent's w43 reasoning is internally coherent (track failures, escalate premium) but the escalation ladder oracle→+1.47%→+2.07%→+3% shares a false premise: that LP rejection is price-driven. LP-Maker-Matheus has a minimum lot floor; a 4.96 USDC lot at +100% premium is still unfillable. Sound reasoning, wrong diagnosis — the most common failure

ownIntentResolved fires when #1280 fills or expires

MISSING: no trigger on LP book to detect if a larger lot would currently fill — agent is flying blind on why fills fail

Sole crypto swap counterparty; settled 4 of last 6 deals — but minimum lot floor (~12 USDC) blocks current 4.96 USDC lots

Just resurrected (armed=true/pidAlive=true, 3 fresh LP swaps); could take oracle-priced BTC swaps if arb exists — but arb-hunter targets bin

none confirmed — agent scans for favorable takes each wake (w37, w42 both report 'no book opportunities within budget constraints'). No evidence of takeable open swaps it skipped.

Fires on ownIntentResolved — exactly the right event for a 'one slice per wake' DCA agent; no spurious wakes

Fallback targets next portfolio-relevant event (stocks open) rather than an arbitrary timer

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence is appropriate for intent expiry windows

pidAlive write + fallback arm = correctly structured

No mechanism to detect lot-size rejection at the watcher level — watcher treats 'expired' and 'filled' as the same signal, so the LLM never gets told WHY the in

On intent expiry (not fill), pass the expiry reason signal to the wake so the LLM can distinguish 'expired unfilled' from 'filled' — or hardcode a post-expiry diagnostic: read LP's current minimum lot and include it in the wake context so t

Premium escalation is a misdiagnosis — lot size is the binding constraint

Agent has posted 5+ consecutive sub-12 USDC BTC lots and attributed each failure to insufficient premium. The actual gate is LP-Maker-Matheus's minimum lot floor. Fix: consolidate multiple sub-minimum gaps into a single ≥12 USDC lot, or hold BTC DCA until portfolio drift accumulates enough to justif

Update agent CLAUDE.md / mission guidance: always check LP minimum lot before sizing a slice; if portfolio gap × portfolio value < LP floor, skip this wake and let gap accumulate rather than posting a guaranteed-expire lot.

Escalation ladder is burning wakes and token budget with no path to fill

w39–w43 = 5 wakes × ~$1.09 last_wake_usd escalating BTC premium oracle→+1.47%→+2.07%→+3%; realized PnL already -$1.83. Each wake costs ~$1 LLM and posts an intent that expires. Current path reaches +3% with no fill; next step is undefined.

Add a circuit-breaker: after N consecutive expirations on the same asset, halt and diagnose (log lot size vs LP floor) rather than escalating premium indefinitely.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Pre-market window; CLAUDE.md enforces 09:30–16:00 ET only. No fills possible now by design. 2 settled deals both with LP-Maker-Matheus confirm the path clears at open.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) via 30-second poll loop

fallback at 14:00 UTC (open + 30 min) if poll misses

Both settled deals were LP-Maker fills; LP has live sNVDA quote (12 USDC lot) and is confirmed able to fill Stacker's 0.50 USDC slices

Fires exactly at epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) — the only moment Stacker is allowed to act

30-second poll cadence is appropriate: lightweight, zero-LLM, no book dependency

Fallback at open+30 min (14:00 UTC) is a sensible safety net; nextFallbackMin=129 confirms it resolves to ~14:00 UTC from current ~11:51 UTC

No book-watching needed for a pure DCA mission — correctly omitted

fallbackMs when already past open evaluates to 30 min from invocation time, which is correct but implicit — a comment would prevent future confusion

LP lot-size headroom shrinks as sNVDA price rises

LP posts 12 USDC lots; Stacker posts 0.50 USDC. Confirmed fills show LP accepts sub-lot today, but if LP tightens minimums or oracle price moves, 0.50 USDC may become un-fillable. Currently 9.00 USDC / 18 wakes remaining.

Monitor: if next fill at 13:30 fails despite LP live, check whether LP minimum crossed 0.50 USDC threshold and adjust slice size in CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

US market open 13:30 UTC June 11 (sNVDA -2.14% buy-dip) or 4h fallback

Not a failure — agent is executing correctly. Structural note: 5/5 settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; zero diversification of counterparty. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote, no fallback taker exists. Current intent 0x045e (20 USDC) is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor — fillable now.

ownIntentResolved: fires when 0x045e fills or expires

2h fallback (120 min, ~74 min remaining)

All 5 settled deals; 11 open quotes; 20 USDC intent is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor

Could theoretically take sNVDA → USDC side, but lot-size bug (4 USDC intents) means it's currently misfiring; not a reliable fill source

Fires on ownIntentResolved — exact event the agent needs (fill or expiry before re-evaluating)

2h fallback appropriate for a patient DCA agent averaging 153-min gaps

Zero-LLM; intent address hardcoded cleanly; PID written at startup

No early-wake on significant price move — if sNVDA dislocation reverses sharply (e.g. +1% bounce), agent holds the 0x045e intent until expiry rather than cancel

Near budget exhaustion — no slice logic for <full-size remainder

After 56 USDC deployed (18+18+20), ~24.2 USDC remains. If 0x045e fills, ~4.2 USDC left — below the 18-20 USDC slice floor. Agent may stall at next wake with no actionable path despite continued dislocation.

Add minimum-remainder check: if remaining USDC < 10, skip further DCA slices and log 'budget nearly exhausted'; or allow a partial final slice down to 10 USDC floor.

Single counterparty concentration

5/5 settled deals vs LP-Maker-Matheus only. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote (as noted in Step-1: LP missing ETH ask and BTC ask at times), 0x045e would expire unfilled with no alternative taker.

Low priority given LP's current health (93 deals, 11 quotes), but worth noting for resilience — no agent fix needed now, monitor LP sNVDA quote coverage.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

985 eroded to 0.22%; 989 SSV sell drifted to 2.29% vs 1% target (rival at 0.49%); 948/949 expiring in 13-14 min — re-quo

18 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781103961; next poll 60s

Summary: Confirmed crashed at w67/14:36 UTC, now 495 min dark (+59 min since last summary at 436 min). Zero resurrection signal: tokens_5h_usd=0, open_intents=0, deals frozen at 38, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null — bait suite (IDs 987/988/1001/948/949+4) confirmed expired unmanaged. No self-recovery path: wake-watch.js 2h fallback requires a

495 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — zero self-recovery path. Deals frozen at 38, realized PnL -$2.34 on $61.36 lifetime token spend. Manual restart required; wake-script logic was sound at crash.

watcher.pidAlive=false, armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null since w67/14:36 UTC; 9-intent bait suite (987 sAAPL-sell 0.99%, 988 sAAPL-buy 1.01%, 1001 sNVDA, 948 BTC-sell 1.19%, 949 ETH-sell 1.37% + 4 others) expired unmanaged — confirmed by open_intents=0; tokens_5h_usd=0 confirms zero wallet activity

Last reasoning (w63–w67) was sound and on-mission: eroded-quote cancels (0.36%/0.22% below 0.5% floor), duplicate detection, pre-expiry re-quotes, edge-gating at ≥1%. Agent was solving the right problem. Crash is process-level, not a reasoning or strategy failure — the logic worked; the process died.

new takeable edge ≥1% via scan-edges (honeypot IDs 779/836/869 pre-seeded)

quote erosion/undercut via check-my-quotes cancelCmds > 0

MISSING: process supervisor — all 4 triggers are inert because watcher PID is dead; nextFallbackMin=null confirms no external scheduler; no resurrection without

All 10 most-recent settled deals are Swap↔LP-Maker-Matheus; primary swap fill source across 96 deals

Resurrected this cycle (armed=true/pidAlive=true, 3 fresh LP swaps); could take sharp bait intents if edge clears its gate, but primary focu

Posts delivered swap intents vulture could take; but near budget exhaustion (~24.2 USDC remaining)

BinaryBet counterparty but crashed 692 min — no BinaryBet supply on book

Unverifiable: watcher blind (PID dead, no scan-edges running). Book shows rebalancer-lior 4.96 USDC→BTC and swing-nikita w23 20 USDC intents live during the dark window; whether either cleared vulture's ≥1% edge gate is unknown without a live scan run. Cannot assign fault to the agent for misses it was structurally unable to see.

4 triggers precisely matched to vulture's dual mission (opportunistic take + quote hygiene): edge≥1%, pre-expiry, erosion/undercut, 2h fallback

30s poll cadence appropriate — responsive to fast-eroding quotes without sub-minute spam

Honeypot pre-seed (IDs 779/836/869) prevents re-firing on confirmed traps

Zero-LLM in watcher loop; scan-edges + check-my-quotes are token-free

No process supervision: when PID dies all 4 triggers become inert — the 2h fallback only fires while the loop is running, making it useless for the failure mode

nextFallbackMin=null confirms no external scheduler as backup

Add an external watchdog (pm2 watch or a fleet-level cron) that detects watcher PID death and restarts it — the wake-script logic is well-reasoned for the mission but entirely useless once the process dies. This is the single highest-levera

Watcher process dead — manual restart required

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null for 495 min. No self-recovery path exists. Last wake w67/14:36 UTC. No CLAUDE.md edits, no wallet activity, no new wakes — clean process death.

Manually restart the vulture-andrew watcher (pm2 restart or re-arm). Wake-script logic is sound — no strategy changes needed, only process resurrection.

No fleet-level process supervisor for watcher PIDs — systemic gap

Both vulture-andrew and stacker-massimo show pidAlive=false with nextFallbackMin=null. When a watcher PID dies, there is no watchdog to revive it — the in-process fallback cannot fire from a dead loop. This failure mode will recur across all agents.

Add a fleet-level cron or pm2 ecosystem watch that monitors watcher PIDs and restarts dead ones; alternatively, extend the SDK's armWatcher() to register an external ScheduleWakeup that fires even when the in-process loop is dead.

495 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — zero self-recovery path. Deals frozen at 38, realized PnL -$2.34 on $61.36 lifetime token spend. Manual restart required; wake-script logic was sound at crash.

3 CRASHED, HUB HOLDS

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Arb-Hunter-Tom, Swing-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Momentum-Nikita} | LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Vulture-Andrew (CRASHED)

Hub alive (12/12 book, 96 deals); Vulture-Andrew taker offline 495 min; 3 active

Bear-Yosher → Mimic-Ljuba (supply frozen)

FROZEN — Bear crashed 694 min; board empty across Mimic wakes w55–w60; 7 pre-cra

Quiet — Writer silent since w41 (8 monitor-only wakes); Taker armed but 201 min

Index-Maker ⇄ Index-Taker (never deployed)

DARK — both address=null; 0 IndexBasket intents in 1,292-intent funnel across 15

Bear-Yosher process died twice in succession (w40: PID 6802 gone; w41 re-armed watcher also died); 4h fallback set at ~1

BinaryBet board empty for 694 min; Mimic-Ljuba starved (0 new BinaryBet deals post-crash, wakes w55–w60 all 'edge floor

Bear: armed=false, pidAlive=false, open_intents=0, tokens_5h_usd=0; Mimic: 14/16 settled deals ↔ Bear-Yosher, 0 new BinaryBet since crash

Vulture-Andrew watcher died at w67/14:36 UTC June 10 with no self-recovery path (wake-watch.js 2h fallback requires live

9-intent bait suite (IDs 987, 988, 1001, 948, 949 + 4 others) expired unmanaged; LP-Maker-Matheus loses its primary pric

Vulture: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, open_intents=0, tokens_5h_usd=0 for 495 min; LP deal count stalled at 96

Stacker-Massimo watcher process died between last run (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=129 targeting epoch 1781098200) an

Market-open epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC June 10) fired without response; agent missed its designated buy window; now 542

Stacker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; health=stuck; prior summary confirmed countdown was on track at 129 min remaining

Rebalancer-Lior misattributes fill failures to pricing rather than lot size; escalates premium (oracle → +1.47% → +2.07%

4 consecutive expirations despite reaching +3% premium; LP-Maker-Matheus's 12 USDC fill floor never cleared; current liv

w38 4 USDC ETH expired; w40b 4 USDC BTC expired; w41 #1261 expired; w43 #1280 at +3% still sub-12 USDC; LP filled prior Rebalancer deals when lots were larger (6 in settled list)

Index-Maker never provisioned (address=null); Index-Taker is a pure downstream responder with no independent activation

Zero IndexBasket intents in 1,292-intent funnel across 15 observed cycles; entire IndexBasket market segment generates n

Both agents: address=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, wake_script_source=null for 15 cycles

Option-Writer-Matheus has posted no new options since w41 (8 consecutive monitor-only wakes); ETH −0.08% / BTC −0.13% be

Option-Taker-Matheus holding calls #118 and puts #119 (both expiring ~June 11 17–18 UTC) with no new supply to act on; 2

Writer: nextFallbackMin=47, armed; Taker: 4 lifetime deals all ↔ option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff), 0 audited options on book for 201 min

Bear-Yosher: deal 75 expiry in ~2h, no agent to settle

Bear crashed 694 min ago (armed=false/pidAlive=false). Deal 75 betExpiry=1781139624 (June 11 00:58 UTC) is live and ~2h from settlement with no Bear process running. If Bear does not restart before expiry, the deal resolves without agent action — potential loss of position.

Bear: tokens_5h_usd=0, open_intents=0, watcher dead; deal 75 betExpiry confirmed in summary; w41 4h fallback definitively expired

Manually restart Bear-Yosher immediately; settlement action required before 00:58 UTC June 11

Vulture-Andrew 495 min dark, no self-recovery, bait suite gone

Crashed at w67/14:36 UTC June 10. Full 9-intent bait suite (IDs 987, 988, 1001, 948, 949 + 4) expired unmanaged. No resurrection path: wake-watch.js 2h fallback requires a live process. 38-deal arbitrage engine offline, removing a key source of LP price signal.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, tokens_5h_usd=0, open_intents=0 for 495 min; bait suite confirmed expired

Manually restart Vulture-Andrew; re-post bait suite post-restart

Stacker-Massimo missed market-open epoch, watcher dead

Prior run confirmed watcher alive at nextFallbackMin=129 targeting epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC June 10). Now armed=false/pidAlive=false — watcher died before epoch fired or during it. 542 min dark; missed the buy window by design-enforced window (09:30–16:00 ET). Next US market open is ~June 11.

Stacker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, health=stuck; prior summary countdown was on track; 2 prior deals confirm LP path works when watcher runs

Manually restart Stacker-Massimo; re-arm before June 11 09:30 ET market open

Rebalancer-Lior: lot-size diagnosis failure, premium escalation futile

Agent escalated premium to +3% across 4 consecutive failures while holding lot size at ~4–5 USDC — below LP-Maker-Matheus's 12 USDC fill floor. Current intent #1280 (4.96 USDC BTC at +3%) will expire for the same reason as #1261, w40b, w38. The premium dial is the wrong instrument.

6 prior Rebalancer fills all ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus at larger lot sizes; w43 posts 4.96 USDC; LP fill floor confirmed 12 USDC from open book (12 USDC → 0.000197 BTC live intent)

Fix Rebalancer-Lior CLAUDE.md / logic: escalate lot size (≥12 USDC) not premium; premium is secondary once lot clears the fill floor

BinaryBet market frozen: sole supply source dark 694 min

Bear-Yosher is the only BinaryBet maker; crash has emptied the board for 694 min (Mimic wakes w55–w60 all returned 'edge floor ≥3pp unmet / board empty'). 7 pre-crash Bear↔Mimic deals remain in-flight (oracle-settled, safe), but zero new BinaryBet supply entering market. Mimic self-posted one attempt but no counterparty exists.

Mimic: 14/16 settled BinaryBet ↔ Bear-Yosher; w55–w60 'board empty'; open book shows 0 BinaryBet intents; Bear armed=false/pidAlive=false

Restart Bear-Yosher (primary fix); secondary: consider core-level BinaryBet supply redundancy so single-agent crash doesn't freeze entire market

LP-Maker-Matheus is sole swap hub; 2 of 5 takers crashed

LP-Maker-Matheus (12/12 book, 96 deals) is the only functioning swap liquidity source. With Vulture-Andrew (495 min dark) and Bear-Yosher (694 min dark) both offline, active taker set reduced to Arb-Hunter-Tom (edge dry, 18 consecutive waits), Swing-Nikita (nearly budget-deployed), and Rebalancer-Lior (lot-floor blocked). Deal velocity constrained by taker fragility, not LP quality.

LP reliableCounterparties=5; Vulture+Bear both stuck/crashed; LP deals 95→96 (+1 this cycle) vs prior cadence

Restart crashed takers (Vulture, Bear) to restore swap demand against LP's full book

URGENT: Restart Bear-Yosher now — deal 75 (BinaryBet, betExpiry 1781139624) expires June 11 00:58 UTC (~2h); settlement action required before that timestamp

Restart Vulture-Andrew — 495 min dark, no self-recovery, 9-intent bait suite expired; re-post bait suite post-restart to restore LP price-discovery signal

Restart Stacker-Massimo — watcher dead, missed 13:30 UTC epoch; re-arm before June 11 09:30 ET market open (next valid buy window)

Fix Rebalancer-Lior: escalate lot size to ≥12 USDC (LP fill floor) instead of escalating premium; current sub-12 USDC lots cannot fill regardless of price

Add watcher process supervisor / auto-resurrection — Bear, Vulture, and Stacker all died with no self-recovery; a shared watchdog that re-execs wake-watch.js on exit would prevent all three crises

Arb-hunter-tom resurrected (prior: armed=false/pidAlive=false; now armed=true/pidAlive=true, 3 fresh LP-Maker-Matheus swaps in deal list, nextFallbackMin=7) — the one positive delta; stacker-massimo lost its watcher arm since last run (prior: pidAlive=true awaiting epoch 1781098200/13:30 UTC June 10

Arb-hunter-tom shows armed=true/pidAlive=true + 3 recent LP swap deals, but deal counter still reads 11 — confirm whether these are net-new fills or pre-existing history re-displayed

Stacker-massimo: new armed=false/pidAlive=false status with health=stuck — prior run had pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=129 targeting epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC); 542 min dark means epoch fired ~8.5h

Rebalancer-Lior's 4.96 USDC→BTC intent is live on the open book (20 min left) — sub-LP-minimum lot, likely expires unfilled again; agent has now posted multiple sub-12 USDC lots without diagnosing the

Swing-nikita near budget exhaustion: 56 USDC committed across 3 DCA slices, ~24.2 USDC remaining, w23 20 USDC intent visible on book (18 min left)

BinaryBet market frozen: bear-yosher 692 min dark = zero new BinaryBet supply; mimic-ljuba's sole deal source gone; 7 Bear↔Mimic live deals are pre-crash in-flight only

Resurrection confirmed by watcher state (armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=7) and 3 LP-Maker-Matheus swap deals in the recent list — but deal count is still 11: are these 3 deals net-new (counter lag) or pre-existing history? And is

692 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false, health=stuck — no change from last run. Is there any resurrection artifact (process restart, wallet activity, CLAUDE.md edit) that appeared since last summary, and what is the minimum intervention r

14th consecutive null cycle, zero on-chain trace, $0 lifetime tokens, never deployed. What is the concrete blocker preventing first boot — is this a missing CLAUDE.md, an unfunded wallet, or an unresolved mission ambiguity — and is this age

Upstream index-maker has never posted a single IndexBasket intent (funnel grew to 1292 total, still zero IndexBasket). Is there any independent activation path for index-taker, or is it correctly dormant pending upstream, and should it be d

Open intents consolidated from 15→11 (legacy dups resolved?) and deals ticked 95→96 (+1); BTC ask gap was the persistent single gap last run. Did the book consolidation clear the dup issue cleanly, is BTC ask still the only gap, and do the

Bear-Yosher has been dark 692 min with zero new BinaryBet flow; Mimic's last wake was 155 min ago (nextFallbackMin=6, pidAlive=true). With the BinaryBet board empty, is Mimic's self-originated strategy producing any fills, or is it correctl

Baseline captured at w17 (~428+ min ago and growing each cycle) is now stale by any momentum standard. Has the stale baseline produced any misfired signals since last summary, and given nextFallbackMin=305, when will the watcher next run —

Holds sNVDA call #118 (expiry ~17:37 UTC June 11) and put #119 (expiry ~18:31 UTC June 11) — both still ~19-20h from expiry. Has option-writer-matheus posted any new option supply since the prior summary, and are these two positions trackin

4 consecutive monitor-only wakes (w42–w45), Engine 1 paused pending vol spike ≥1% from ETH 1618.44/BTC 61520.62 baselines. Has any vol event occurred since w45, and is the 56-min fallback cadence fine-grained enough to catch a real vol spik

530 min dark but armed=true/pidAlive=true with nextFallbackMin=1271 (~21h out) — correctly patient. Is the sAAPL position ($290.79 entry, stop $277.34, forward $303.75, horizon Jun 12 20:00 UTC) still within band, and does the current Polym

Open 4.96 USDC→BTC intent is live on the book (confirmed, 20 min left) and is sub-LP-minimum (LP floor=12 USDC, lot=4.96 USDC). Prior summaries flagged this as a root-cause misdiagnosis — agent iterates on oracle-premium while the real bloc

Prior run: pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=129, awaiting epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC June 10). Now: armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null, health=stuck, last_wake=542 min (~13:05 UTC). Did the epoch-triggered wake fire and then cra

Three-wake DCA sequence (w21–w23): 56 USDC committed, ~24.2 USDC remaining; w23's 20 USDC intent is on the open book with 18 min left. Has w23 settled or is it still open, has the dislocation deepened further (prior: −2.18% at w23), and is

493 min crashed (armed=false/pidAlive=false), 9-intent bait suite expired unmanaged, deals frozen at 38. No change from last summary — confirm zero resurrection signal (no new wakes, no wallet activity, no CLAUDE.md edit), and flag whether

Restart bear-yosher — 692 min dark, sole source of BinaryBet flow for mimic-ljuba; market frozen without it

Restart vulture-andrew — 493 min dark, 9-intent bait suite expired unmanaged; fleet loses its misprice-hunter and baited-fill income

Diagnose stacker-massimo crash: check whether epoch-triggered wake fired and failed to re-arm, or watcher died pre-epoch; 542 min dark with health=stuck

Fix rebalancer-lior lot-size: every recent BTC lot is sub-12 USDC (LP floor); agent must either post ≥12 USDC lots or find an alternate counterparty — oracle-premium tuning is solving the wrong proble

Restart momentum-nikita watcher to refresh stale baseline (captured 428+ min ago at w17); current baseline renders momentum signals unreliable

Deploy index-maker — 14 consecutive null cycles, never booted; index-taker is permanently blocked until it posts a single IndexBasket intent