account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

Regime is wide but no taker-positive poster exists. #2454 BTC binary structurally untakeable (same pattern as 7 prior in

new intent >2679 with edge ≥5bps OR crypto binary ≤30min to BET SETTLEMENT with CEX taker in-money OR 30-min fallback (regime closed — awaiting fresh dislocation)

Summary: Alive and filling cleanly: w353 (+26bps ETH, deal 196) and w354 (+33bps ETH, deal 198) both against LP-Maker this cycle, confirming the ETH latency-edge regime first predicted at w348 is persisting. 21/23 visible settled deals are LP-Maker (91%); 2 Vulture-Andrew deals exist (arb-hunter took vulture's posted intents), so it is NOT purely LP-Maker but effecti

Arb-hunter is healthy and on-mission, correctly taking ETH latency edges (+26bps, +33bps this cycle) exclusively from LP-Maker (21/23 = 91% of visible deals). Two Vulture-Andrew deals exist lifetime but zero this cycle. Net economics are negative: $3.17 realized vs $13.47 lifetime token spend. The watcher's EDGE_BPS_MIN=5 pre-filter fires on edges the agent's own 10bps floor rejects — the single highest-leverage fix.

21/23 visible deals are LP-Maker-Matheus; no deals against bear-yosher, mimic-ljuba, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, or swing-nikita; only 2 Vulture-Andrew deals lifetime; zero binary deals across all 356 wakes (no near-expiry crypto binary with CEX taker in-money has materialized); w356 confirms

Sound and on-mission. Each WAIT wake cites a specific distinct reason: oracle convergence ≤6bps (w350), BTC binary structural pattern confirmed across 7+ priors (w352), known-poison poster revert confirmed (w355), stock-only new intents (w356). Fills at w353 and w354 cite exact bps edges and pass all caps. No churn — the agent is diagnosing the market correctly each wake rather than re-deriving th

New swap intent >HWM(2642) with quickSwapEdge ≥5bps vs CEX

Crypto binary ≤30min to settlement with CEX taker in-money

30-min fallback — primary driver: 308/356 (86.5%) wakes are fallback-driven, consistent with avg_gap_min=31

MISSING: w351 logged '#2390 +84bps already gone' — an 84bps edge (3× the typical fill range) appeared and was consumed before arb-hunter arrived; watcher has no

Primary and near-exclusive source (21/23 visible deals); LP anchors stale-oracle swaps that arb-hunter exploits via CEX feed advantage

ok — 152 deals, active, $94.23/5h burn c

2 lifetime deals (arb-hunter took vulture's posted intents); also competes for same LP edges so fit is partial/competitive; vulture's PID de

degraded — armed=true but pidAlive=false

Posts swap intents for DCA; could generate taker-positive anchors but currently lot-size blocked

blocked — sMSFT 0.03 < LP-Maker floor 0.

Posts delivered swaps when assets dislocated; could generate stale-oracle anchors arb-hunter could exploit

Stock accumulator; arb-hunter explicitly skips stock intents (w356 confirms)

w351: '#2390 +84bps' swap edge was on-book but consumed before arb-hunter arrived — 84bps is 2.5–3× the fills arb-hunter has been taking (26–33bps). Likely Vulture-Andrew took it. Whether the 30-min fallback cadence caused the miss or it was posted and consumed within a single poll interval is unmeasurable from current data — watcher has no sub-30min trigger for large-edge events.

quickSwapEdge pre-filter fetches live CEX price before waking the agent — correctly prevents false fires on taker-negative or neutral flow

SKIP_POSTERS excludes 0x8121...295E whose standard acceptIntent reverts (confirmed w355: '#2591 revert confirmed')

HWM bumped dynamically (2592→2642 after w355) keeps new-intent trigger accurate and avoids re-scanning old intents

Baseline-on-first-poll prevents spurious fires on pre-existing intents at watcher startup

30-min fallback matches mission's 31-min avg_gap and covers the 30-min binary expiry window scan

EDGE_BPS_MIN=5 watcher pre-filter is below the agent's actual 10bps decision floor — watcher fires on 5-9bps intents the agent will WAIT on (w352 confirms: 'no

No sub-30min trigger for large-edge events — the 84bps miss at w351 suggests a fast-moving high-value edge can appear and disappear within the fallback window

Raise EDGE_BPS_MIN from 5 to 10 in current.ts to match the agent's actual decision floor — eliminates all spurious 5-9bps wakes. Based on w352 language ('no affordable swap edge above 10bps floor'), this pattern is recurrent and fixing it i

EDGE_BPS_MIN=5 watcher pre-filter below agent's 10bps decision floor

Watcher fires on any swap with ≥5bps edge vs CEX; agent passes on anything below 10bps (confirmed w352). Each false trigger costs one full LLM wake (~$0.55/wake based on last_wake_usd). With 308/356 (86.5%) wakes already no-fill, reducing spurious triggers is the primary lever on token burn.

Set EDGE_BPS_MIN = 10 in current.ts line matching `const EDGE_BPS_MIN = 5`

Net lifetime economics negative: $3.17 realized PnL vs $13.47 token spend

42 deals generating $3.17 realized vs $13.47 lifetime token costs = -$10.30 net. Average per-deal PnL implied ~$0.075 gross on fills that cost $0.55/wake in LLM tokens. Agent needs either higher-value fills or fewer no-fill wakes to become net positive.

Fix EDGE_BPS_MIN (above) to cut spurious wakes; separately evaluate whether expanding the binary surface (SSV binary + BTC binary when structural untakeability is resolved) could increase fill rate without proportional wake increase

BTC binary #2454 'structurally untakeable' — 7+ consecutive WAIT cycles cite same pattern

Arb-hunter correctly skips #2454 each cycle but the structural reason is undiagnosed. If it's a template mismatch or bad-poster pattern, other agents (vulture, mimic-ljuba, polymarket-ljuba) may also be silently skipping it, freezing a potentially valuable binary surface.

Decode #2454 template, attempt acceptIntent from a test wallet to confirm revert, then either add poster to arb-hunter's SKIP_POSTERS or fix the template contract-side

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Summary: Intent 2454 (BTC<$65,400) confirmed FILLED since prior summary (w64 13:13Z) — this is a NEW deal with Mimic-Ljuba, not one of the two pre-existing bets (159, 160); intent 2375 (BTC<$64,900) also filled (w62 11:17Z), a second new position. Intent 2505 expired without fill. Current anchor 2630 (BTC<$65,600) resting at ~1.27% cushion vs BTC $66,444. Deal 159 (b

Both 'custom live ↔ Mimic-Ljuba' entries since prior summary are NEW positions (2375 filled w62, 2454 filled w64) — not the pre-known 159/160. All three open/recent bets are OTM: Deal 159 (~2.9% OTM, $4 loss near-certain at 17:59Z), Deal 160 (status unclear but BTC well above any sub-$65k strike), and anchor 2630 (~1.27% OTM currently). Realized PnL -$17.71 reflects a bear thesis losing to a BTC rally from ~$64,500 to $66,444 across this session.

BTC has risen from ~$64,500 (deal 159 strike era) to $66,444 (w65 baseline), invalidating every bear bet posted. Intents 2375 and 2454 were filled eagerly by Mimic-Ljuba/Polymarket-Ljuba — counterparties treating these as favorable (BTC stays above strike), consistent with market direction. Intent 2

Sound execution of the wrong problem. The anchor-and-repost loop is disciplined: consistent ~1.2–1.3% cushion, clean HALT/resume transitions (w58–w60), correct re-post trigger on fill or expiry. However, the agent is solving 'maintain a resting bear bet' rather than 'reassess whether bear bets should be posted at all given BTC has risen ~$2,000 since deal 159 was struck.' The HALT cleared at w60 (

Intent 2630 resolved (filled or TTL expiry) → re-post anchor

Deal 159 pre-fire at 17:49Z (10min before 17:59Z betExpiry) → attempt settlement

BTC +1.5% from $66,443.76 baseline (~$67,390) → posture reconsider

Taking ABOVE side of Bear-Yosher's BELOW bets; 3 of last 4 settled deals, fills 2375 and 2454 confirmed this cycle

1 of last 4 settled deals; values bets against Polymarket distribution, takes mispriced BELOW bets as ABOVE

Multiple wakes ('no bearish takes on book' at w58, w60, w65) confirm no resting BELOW bets were available to take. No missed taker opportunities; agent's taker leg is starved by thin book supply. Posting its own bets is the correct fallback per mission.

Intent lifecycle trigger (2630 fill OR TTL expiry) is the right primary signal for a bet-and-repost strategy

Deal 159 pre-fire at 17:49Z (10min before betExpiry) gives time to attempt settlement — correctly timed

BTC adverse +1.5% triggers a wake without forcing a halt; the LLM then judges 'persistent >2% over legs' per mission — two-layer design is correct

4h fallback is appropriate for a patient 24h-bet strategy (not sub-minute polling)

No downside BTC trigger: if BTC drops sharply toward the strike, the agent sleeps up to 4h before acting; a BTC -1% fire could let it settle profitable deals fa

Add a BTC -1% downside trigger (mirroring the +1.5% upside trigger) so a favorable move toward the strike wakes the agent promptly — currently a winning move sleeps up to 4h before settlement or taker action.

Bear thesis unreviewed despite persistent BTC rally

BTC has risen from ~$64,500 (deal 159 era) to $66,444 across this session. Every anchor bet (2375, 2454, 2505, 2630) has been posted OTM with BTC above strike. HALT cleared at w60 on 'both assets SHORT' posture signal, but the price level context (BTC $1,900+ above deal 159 strike) argues for reasse

Add a cumulative-OTM threshold check: if all open deals are >2% OTM AND BTC has risen >3% from the oldest open deal's era, require explicit thesis reaffirmation before posting the next anchor (not just HALT logic, which only fires on rapid moves).

Deal 159 near-certain $4 loss at 17:59Z today

BTC<$64,500 with BTC at $66,444 is 2.9% OTM. BTC would need to fall $1,944 in <3.75h to win. Watcher correctly pre-fires at 17:49Z. Loss is priced in — no action changes the outcome, but the USDC unlock ($4) post-expiry should trigger a USDC position update.

No fix needed for this deal; ensure post-expiry USDC wallet update is reflected in the next anchor stake calculation.

Intent 2505 expired without fill — strike calibration

2505 expired (w65 confirms 'myOpenIntents empty (2505 expired)') unlike 2375 and 2454 which filled quickly. The TTL window for 2505 may have been too short or strike too low to attract takers at that BTC level. The pattern: fills happen fast (~40-60min) when BTC is near the 1.2-1.3% cushion band, bu

Track fill-vs-expire ratio per anchor: if >2 consecutive expiries occur, widen the cushion to 1.5% to improve fill probability.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 56th consecutive null cycle — every field identical to the 55th. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, 0 settled deals, health='unknown'. Step-1 focus question answered: NO field has changed — not armed, not pid, not script, not wallet signal. This agent has never been initialized in any cycle

56th identical null cycle. zero lifetime tokens, zero wakes, no wake script, no process ever started. This is not a crash or regression — the agent was never deployed. Nothing in the current snapshot differs from the 55th cycle by even one field.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wakes=0 across all 56 observed cycles — no process ever started, no script ever deployed

N/A — no wakes, no reasoning output has ever been produced. Cannot assess reasoning quality on zero executions.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher process (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

index-taker's mission is explicitly to take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-maker would publish — they are designed as

unmeasurable: agent has never woken, no intents ever posted, no book presence to miss against

No wake script exists — wake_script_source=null across all 56 cycles

No watcher process armed — the agent cannot self-start

No fallback timer — nothing will trigger a retry

Deploy a wake script and initialize the watcher process — this is the only move; all other analysis is moot until the agent exists.

Agent never initialized — 56 null cycles

index-maker has produced 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, no wake script, no process. It is not crashed — it was never started. Its counterpart index-taker is in the same state. The IndexBasket market is structurally absent from the fleet.

Write and deploy a wake script (current.ts), fund the wallet if needed, and arm the watcher. Until then this slot contributes nothing and index-taker remains permanently starved.

56th identical null cycle. zero lifetime tokens, zero wakes, no wake script, no process ever started. This is not a crash or regression — the agent was never deployed. Nothing in the current snapshot differs from the 55th cycle by even one field.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 56th consecutive null cycle — zero delta on every dimension vs 55th null. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Focus question answered: no change to armed/pidAlive/script since 55th null cycle; open book items (0x57F8…B0ff sNVDA call, DeadlineSwap entries) are Options and Swap templ

Index-taker has never executed a single wake across its entire lifetime ($0 tokens, 0 wakes). No change this cycle: still armed=false, pidAlive=false, no wake script. The open book's sNVDA call and DeadlineSwap entries are not IndexBasket intents and cannot trigger its mission. Supply-side counterparty index-maker is identically dead — even if index-taker were online, there is nothing to take.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0 lifetime. No deployment artifact exists. Corroborated by index-maker being identically offline (0 lifetime wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=false) — the entire IndexBasket market segment has never been activated.

N/A — agent has never run. No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake script loaded — agent cannot self-start

MISSING: index-maker (sole IndexBasket intent author) is also offline — no supply signal even if watcher were armed

Only agent authorized to post LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of

OFFLINE — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0

none — open book contains 0 IndexBasket intents this cycle. sNVDA call (0x57F8…B0ff) is an Options contract; DeadlineSwap entries are swap templates. Neither matches the IndexBasket template index-taker audits against. Even if index-taker were online, it would find nothing to take.

No wake script exists — wake_script_source=null; the agent has never been deployed

No watcher armed to poll for new IndexBasket intents from index-maker

Deploy a wake script that polls for LONG IndexBasket intents (template hash matching the audited IndexBasket contract) and arms with a reasonable fallback cadence (e.g., 30–60 min) — but this is moot until index-maker is also deployed and p

Agent never deployed — no wake script, never armed

56 consecutive null cycles with wake_script_source=null and watcher never armed. This is not a crash or block — the agent has simply never been initialized/deployed. $0 lifetime token spend confirms no process has ever started.

Deploy index-taker's wake script (current.ts) and arm its watcher. Coordinate with index-maker deployment — both must be live simultaneously for any deal to form; deploying only one is wasted effort.

index-maker co-dependency: zero supply without it

index-taker has exactly one counterparty (index-maker), which is also at 0 lifetime wakes and armed=false. The IndexBasket market segment is fully dark on both the maker and taker side. Activating index-taker alone produces a live agent with zero intents to audit.

Treat index-maker + index-taker as a paired deployment unit. Bring both online in the same cycle; verify index-maker posts a LONG IndexBasket intent before declaring the segment live.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

SSV bid and sNVDA bid missing after concurrent-wake disruption. Duplicate #2685 already cleaned up. Repost to restore 12

PREFIRE_EARLY 15:31Z + PREFIRE_MAIN 15:44Z + PREFIRE_LATE 16:01Z + guards + 16:35Z fallback

Summary: PnL deteriorated -$9.7 this cycle (now -$26.5 realized vs -$16.8 prior), driven by Arb-Hunter-Tom who accounts for 21/37 visible recent deals (57%) — every fill is definitionally adverse selection since Arb-Hunter has CEX latency advantage over LP-Maker's 60s watcher poll. w210 spreads (ETH/BTC bid side -36/-37bps, ask side +15/+18bps) are losing the informa

Arb-Hunter-Tom is the primary adverse-PnL source: 21/37 recent deals (57%), PnL -$9.7 this cycle alone. w210 spreads (+15-18bps ask, -36-37bps bid on ETH/BTC) cannot cover Arb-Hunter's CEX-oracle latency gap given 60s watcher poll interval — any price move > half-spread before the guard fires is free money for Arb-Hunter. Stacker-Massimo (5 deals, at-oracle) and Option-Writer (6 deals, portfolio rebalancing) are benign-to-neutral flow; Vulture-Andrew (3 deals) is secondary adverse selection.

21/37 recent deals with Arb-Hunter-Tom (mission: exploit oracle lag via CEX feed). Realized PnL -$26.5 vs -$16.8 prior = -$9.7 this cycle. BID_GUARDS fire when oracle crosses bid, but 60s poll interval means Arb-Hunter can see and take a fill within that window. ETH/BTC bid spreads at -36/-37bps are

Sound execution, wrong spread calibration. The watcher cascade during US open (w220: concurrent wakes handling stock inversions) is operationally correct. PREFIRE system preventing dark gaps is well-reasoned. BUT: the core reasoning loop still uses spreads calibrated to the book's renewal risk, not to the information cost of Arb-Hunter's CEX advantage. The agent correctly detects inversion and rep

PREFIRE_EARLY 15:31Z — BTC ask + ETH bid renewal before expiry

PREFIRE_MAIN 15:48Z — main cluster renewal before expiry

ASK_GUARD: oracle >= ask price (inversion)

BID_GUARD: oracle <= bid price (bid inverts)

new fillable intent detected via canFill()

21/37 recent deals; primary volume source but adverse selection by design — CEX feed vs oracle lag means every fill where price moved >half-

5 recent deals on sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within 1% of oracle — this is healthy taker flow, benign PnL for LP-Maker

6 recent deals — portfolio rebalancing swaps, likely near-oracle, neutral-to-slight adverse depending on timing

3 recent deals, mission is to pick off mispriced swaps — secondary adverse selector; pidAlive=false but armed=true so structurally alive

armed (watcher), pidAlive=false — waking

1 recent deal; buys mispriced options/binaries — occasional benign swap fill

16 lifetime deals but 0 recent — sMSFT lot-size block (0.03 < floor 0.030888) prevents all rebalancing swaps this cycle

None identifiable — LP-Maker is the passive side; it posts and waits for takers. The inverse question (missed fills of incoming intents) is unmeasurable without seeing which new intents the canFill() guard triggered vs which LP-Maker declined on audit.

ASK_GUARD + BID_GUARD firing on oracle crossing posted prices — prevents holding inverted quotes; directly addresses the US open gap-up cascade seen in w220

PREFIRE_EARLY + PREFIRE_MAIN staged renewal prevents dark gaps on near-expiry intents — book stayed 12/12 through w221–w224 with no dark gaps

canFill() new-intent detection fires LP-Maker when fresh swap demand appears — correct for a liquidity-provider mission

60s poll cadence is reasonable for a quote-refresh mission; sub-second polling not needed since fills happen on-chain asynchronously

Fallback at 86min prevents indefinite sleep

No post-fill reprice trigger: after Arb-Hunter/Vulture fills one side of a pair, the opposite quote is now at elevated adverse-selection risk — watcher doesn't

canFill() wakes LP-Maker on every new swap intent including Arb-Hunter's optimally-priced ones — LLM then burns $0.16/wake to decide (often correctly) not to fi

ETH/BTC bid guards at -36/-37bps may be too wide: if Arb-Hunter can act within 30s of a 20bps move, the BID_GUARD at -36bps fires *after* the fill already happe

Add an adversarial-fill guard: after any fill settles against LP-Maker's address, immediately fireWake('POST_FILL: reprice remaining book after adversarial fill') — this closes the window where the remaining half-spread is stale and vulnera

ETH/BTC spreads insufficient to cover Arb-Hunter's information edge

Arb-Hunter accounts for 21/37 recent deals (57%) and -$9.7 PnL deterioration this cycle. BID_GUARDS at -36/-37bps and ASK_GUARDS at +15/+18bps are within Arb-Hunter's observable CEX-oracle delta on fast markets. Realized PnL trajectory (-$16.8 → -$26.5) confirms spreads are losing the information ra

Widen ETH/BTC crypto spreads to 50-70bps half-spread (bid -50bps, ask +50bps) as baseline; the stock spreads (+21-24bps ask) are likely adequate for Stacker flow but should also widen to 35-40bps given gap-up risk at US open.

Token burn $94.26/5h (59.3% of pool) is unsustainable

204/255 wakes are repeat wakes, many likely triggered by canFill() firing on Arb-Hunter new intents, then burning $0.16/wake to audit and decline. At this rate the token pool drains in ~8h. equityVsStart +$49 masks the burn since ETH/BTC inventory appreciated.

In canFill(), filter known-adverse-selector addresses (Arb-Hunter's wallet) from triggering new-intent wakes — LP-Maker should not burn LLM tokens to re-audit Arb-Hunter's optimally-priced intents it will structurally decline. Alternatively, reduce repeat wake frequency by tightening only the guard

No post-fill reprice in wake script

After an adversarial fill (Arb-Hunter/Vulture), the remaining side of the pair is at heightened risk for the same oracle move. The watcher doesn't fire a reprice wake on fill events — it waits for the next guard crossing or PREFIRE.

Monitor settled deals feed in runWatchLoop and fireWake('POST_FILL_REPRICE') immediately after any fill appears against LP-Maker's address — enables same-move second-leg protection.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Clear high-edge taker opportunity at 23.1h horizon. BTC already $1,105 ITM for my side. Cost-implied 40% vs fair 85% = +

new BinaryBet appears OR stock market opens 13:30 UTC OR 2h fallback

Summary: Fallback NOT yet fired — nextFallbackMin=99 (down from 103 in Step-1), so ~13:41 UTC trigger; the stock-market-open wire (13:30 UTC) will beat it by ~11min. The 'Polymarket-Ljuba ↔ Mimic' entry in settled_deals_detail is unchanged from last run — same 3×Bear-Yosher + 1×Polymarket-Ljuba composition, confirming no new position since w111 (217min ago). Both BTC

No new position since w111 — confirmed. The Polymarket-Ljuba deal entry is a status echo on #192 or #197, not a third bet. Mimic holds $80.24 USDC + two open BTC-bullish positions expiring tomorrow; the visible book offers no ≥3pp taker edge, so holding is correct. Next wake expected at 13:30 UTC (market-open trigger).

w108–w112: 'No BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge available'; w109 Intent #1827 at −15pp, w105 Intent #1827 at −65pp, w112 board showing −10 to −65pp. Board consistently ITM for poster, leaving zero taker edge for Mimic.

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly applies the ≥3pp edge floor and one-deliberate-move rule. w110 (+27.5pp edge, deal #192) and w111 (+45pp implied edge, deal #197) were well-reasoned accepts; all intervening holds cite specific edge measurements. No churn — 217min silence with two open positions is patient, not stuck.

Stock market opens 13:30 UTC (if watcher started before 13:30)

3 of 4 most-recent settled deals; posts BinaryBets Mimic can take

1 of 4 most-recent settled deals; also trades BinaryBets

takes near-decided binaries — could overlap on same taker opportunities, competing not complementary

None — w108/w109/w112 each cite specific negative-edge measurements (−10 to −65pp) for every visible BinaryBet. Correct skips.

BinaryBet new-intent trigger is exact fit for a taker-copy mission — fires as soon as a counterparty posts

Stock-market-open trigger at 13:30 UTC covers equity-linked bets without constant polling

60s poll interval is patient and appropriate — not sub-minute burn

Baseline pattern prevents stale-intent false fires on startup

Stock-market-open trigger is gated on baslineWasBeforeMarket: if the watcher restarts after 13:30 UTC (e.g., the market-open wake fires and the watcher relaunch

After firing on market-open, reset baselineTime = Date.now() when relaunching the watcher so the 13:30-UTC check works correctly across session restarts within the same trading day.

Stock-market-open trigger blind after mid-session restart

baslineWasBeforeMarket uses Date.now() at watcher startup. If the watcher relaunches after 13:30 UTC (after consuming the market-open wake), it sets baselineTime post-market and the condition never fires again that day — only the 2h fallback covers it.

On watcher relaunch, either persist baselineTime across restarts (write to a temp file) or unconditionally fire at 13:30 UTC if currently in market hours on startup, not just when crossing the boundary.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

ETH dual-confirmed on both fast (2.89pp) and slow (3.51pp) — strongest signal in weeks. Prior bid #2547 expired from TTL

intent #2653 resolves | gap ≥2pp (market-hours-aware) | 8h fallback ~22:36 UTC Jun 15

Summary: Prior: dual-confirm finally fired at w47 (fast +3.89pp, slow +2.37pp); #2536 posted at implied ~$1,794. New this cycle: #2536 was NEVER filled — cancelled at w48 when ETH rallied $27.78 to $1,822, making the bid taker-unfavorable; agent repriced to #2547, which then expired from TTL before w49. W49 (14:36Z) re-posted #2653 at implied ~$1,830 on the strongest

#2536 was not filled — cancelled at w48 (ETH +$27.78 past bid, taker-unfavorable); #2547 expired from TTL before w49 could lift it; #2653 now live at implied ~$1,830 with the strongest dual-confirm in weeks (fast 2.89pp, slow 3.51pp). Three bids posted on this momentum leg, zero fills — counterparty supply (resting ETH sellers) evaporates each time the signal clears, forcing maker mode where LP-Maker faces adverse-selection incentive to widen or skip.

W47 explicitly: 'No resting sellers to lift — two were cancelled before I could.' LP-Maker (152 deals, the natural filler) faces adverse selection on momentum-confirmed USDC→ETH flows; arb-hunter-tom (42 deals, fast CEX feed) likely front-runs and clears resting ETH supply the instant momentum clear

Sound execution on the right problem: the $1,794→$1,822 reprice at w48 was correct (LP would lose on a $28-below-market fill), short TTL cycling is intentional (don't hold stale bids if momentum reverses), and market-hours-aware universe filtering is good. One blind spot: the agent defaults to maker (bid) mode when resting ETH supply vanishes, but doesn't appear to scan for any residual offers at

ownIntentResolved polling every 60s — catches #2653 fill OR TTL expiry promptly

Momentum gap ≥2pp from w49 baseline (market-hours-aware: full universe 13:30-20:00 UTC, crypto-only outside)

8h fallback ~22:36 UTC Jun 15 (emergency only; intent resolution trigger makes this a backstop)

Primary USDC↔ETH swap liquidity (152 deals), but bleeding $94.23/5h from adverse selection — momentum-nikita's signal-backed buys are exactl

Taker-only on fast CEX feed; competes for the same resting ETH supply momentum-nikita wants to lift — more adversary than counterparty

ok / 42 deals, likely clearing resting s

Fades dislocations — would sell ETH stretched above trailing average; could be a natural maker for #2653 if ETH is now 'stretched', but 7 li

Posts delivered swaps for DCA; could post ETH→USDC if overweight ETH, but currently blocked by lot-size gate on sMSFT — unclear if ETH rebal

W47: two resting ETH sellers on book that cancelled before agent could lift — $X ETH supply that evaporated (exact value unmeasurable without bid sizes). Whether agent attempted to lift before they cancelled is unclear from the wake log; if it posted a bid without first scanning for takers, that's a sequencing gap. Otherwise no fills missed — #2536/#2547 were correctly cancelled/expired given mark

ownIntentResolved polling every 60s — won't miss TTL expiry or fill; 8h fallback is truly just a backstop, not load-bearing

Market-hours-aware universe (crypto-only outside 13:30-20:00 UTC) prevents phantom divergence from stale equity prices — precise and correct

Gap trigger fires on further leadership shift, enabling rotation wake if a new asset overtakes ETH by 2pp even while #2653 rests

Baseline captured dynamically at w49 start — measures fresh divergence from this wake's oracle, not a stale anchor

No taker-scan at wake entry before defaulting to bid: when momentum fires and resting sellers exist, agent should attempt to lift first, then fall back to posti

No price-drift check in the poll loop: if ETH rallies another $25+ while #2653 rests, the gap trigger won't fire (gap is vs w49 baseline + ETH is still leader),

Add a price-drift guard in the poll loop: if current ETH price exceeds #2653's implied rate by >1%, fire a wake ('bid taker-unfavorable, reprice') — this catches the #2536-style scenario where momentum outruns a resting bid mid-TTL without

No taker-first scan when resting supply exists

W47: agent posted a bid rather than lifting two resting ETH sellers that then cancelled. On a dual-confirmed momentum signal, the agent should scan for takers first and only post a bid if book is empty.

At wake entry after dual-confirm, run a readBook scan and attempt to take the best resting ETH offer (if within 0.5% of oracle) before posting a maker bid. This turns the strongest-signal wakes into fills rather than bids.

No mid-TTL price-drift check in watcher poll loop

#2536 became taker-unfavorable ($28 move) before agent noticed at next wake (w48). The watcher polls every 60s but only checks gap vs baseline — doesn't check whether its own resting bid is still taker-favorable.

In the runWatchLoop callback, after fetching prices, compute `currentETH / impliedBidRate - 1`; if >+1%, fireWake('bid taker-unfavorable, ETH +X% since post') so the agent can cancel and reprice promptly rather than waiting for next wake or TTL.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Wake 38 check — looking for new audited Option intents per mission.

Summary: Drought holds at 8 wakes since Jun14 13:49Z (w32). The sNVDA call now visible on book (hash 0x57F8…B0ff) is a non-audited custom template — does NOT carry 0xb3d66f4b…, so agent correctly ignores it. Supply-side: option-writer-matheus shows 0 open intents. Agent is alive (pidAlive=true, no errors), 6h fallback re-armed (282 min out). No change in posture sinc

The sNVDA call on book (templateHash 0x57F8…B0ff, 0.17 USDC premium, 1362 min left) does NOT match AUDITED_OPTION_HASH 0xb3d66f4b… — agent correctly filters it out, confirming the 8-wake drought is supply-side, not a toolchain block. option-writer-matheus has 0 open intents; no audited Options exist for option-taker to evaluate. Agent is alive and well-armed (next fallback 282 min).

option-writer-matheus: 0 open intents (only audited-Options publisher on the fleet). Last audited Option (0xb3d66f4b…) on book was w32/Jun14 13:49Z. sNVDA call on book carries 0x57F8…B0ff — wrong hash, rightly invisible. 8 consecutive wakes returning 'Zero audited Option intents found'.

Sound and on-mission. Agent applies strict hash guard, uses edge bar (premium ≤2% OR expiry ≥4h), and is correctly patient. Not solving the wrong problem — the drought is a market-supply failure, not a reasoning failure.

new intent appears with templateHash === 0xb3d66f4b… AND kind === 'Option'

Sole audited-Options publisher on fleet; 26 lifetime deals but currently 0 open intents — primary drought cause

health ok, 26 lifetime deals, 0 open int

sNVDA call (0x57F8…B0ff, 0.17 USDC, 1362 min left) is on book but carries an unaudited custom hash — cannot safely be taken without audit verification. No audited Options were missed; filter is correctly discriminating.

Strict AUDITED_OPTION_HASH filter prevents unsafe settlement — correctly excludes the 0x57F8…B0ff custom intent

6h fallback handles supply droughts without burning tokens on empty loops

Baseline seen-set prevents re-firing on stale intents already evaluated and rejected

Rejected-but-not-expired intents are frozen in seen set: if an option's edge improves (deeper ITM, approaching expiry) after being rejected at w34/w35, agent wo

Track rejected intents (failed edge bar) separately from seen baseline; re-evaluate them each poll cycle for improving edge (expiry <1h OR deeper ITM), rather than waiting up to 6h for the fallback to surface them again.

Custom sNVDA option (0x57F8…B0ff) unevaluable — hash whitelist limits option-taker's reach

An sNVDA call (strike $210.13, 0.17 USDC premium, 1362 min remaining) sits on book from a non-writer source, but option-taker's single-hash filter correctly excludes it. This is right behavior, but the fleet loses access to option supply from any template beyond one audited hash — deepening drought

Audit and whitelist additional Option template hashes in the SDK (or add a Set<string> AUDITED_OPTION_HASHES to option-taker's wake script) so it can safely evaluate Options from multiple verified templates, broadening supply exposure without sacrificing settlement safety.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Summary: w36 (11:26 UTC) was the last observation wake; ranking rotation confirmed (sNVDA→sMSFT as ENGINE 2 target), intent 2388 (sNVDA bid, 12 USDC @ oracle mid) left to expire ~12:03 UTC as planned. W37 wake-script is armed and time-gated on REBALANCE_WINDOW_START epoch 1781544900 (14:35 UTC); snapshot was taken ~12:52 UTC (nextFallbackMin=154 → fallback ~15:26 UTC

36 wakes, last at 11:26 UTC — w37 correctly parked behind a 14:35 UTC time-gate (watcher armed, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=154). Open_intents=0 is expected: intent 2388 expired ~12:03Z, ENGINE 1 has 0 option demand across 11+ wakes, ENGINE 2 time-gated. Whether w37 fired and filled sMSFT at 14:35Z is the unresolved question this snapshot can't answer.

ENGINE 1 (options, 30% sleeve): option-taker-matheus in 8-wake drought, 0 audited option 0xb3d66f4b on book since Jun14 13:49Z — no buyer exists. ENGINE 2 (stock, 70% sleeve): time-gated on 14:35Z window; sMSFT is the target after sNVDA removed from ranking; LP-Maker is the only reliable fill counte

Sound, and solving the right problem. Agent correctly identified the ranking rotation at w36, correctly let intent 2388 expire without repricing (supply constraint diagnosed as root cause, not price), correctly parked ENGINE 1 after 11+ zero-fill wakes. The time-gate approach for the post-market rebalance is mission-appropriate. Zero repeat_wakes confirms no churn. One structural concern: if optio

4h fallback at ~15:26 UTC (nextFallbackMin=154 from snapshot ~12:52 UTC)

Primary counterparty for sMSFT swap — 8/8 recent settled deals; but absorbing adverse selection at $94.23/5h burn, may widen spread

Trades sMSFT/sAAPL/sNVDA but as a taker-first accumulator posting bids at oracle+0.5% — unlikely to post sells option-writer needs

Also targets sMSFT but lot-size gated (balance 0.03 < floor 0.030888) — currently blocked from posting

Natural ENGINE 1 buyer for ETH/BTC options, but in 8-wake drought — 0 audited option on book since Jun14 13:49Z

None verifiable. Intent 2388 (sNVDA bid at oracle mid, w34) was the rational move given a $9.99 deficit vs target; letting it expire without churn-repricing was correct. ENGINE 1 option opportunities unmeasurable: option-taker in drought with 0 on-book options means no option intents existed to take.

Targets the specific post-market-open rebalance window (14:35 UTC) that is mission-critical for the stock sleeve — not a generic cadence

Epoch constants are correct: MARKET_OPEN_UTC=1781540400 (13:30 UTC) and REBALANCE_WINDOW_START=1781544900 (14:35 UTC) match stated intent

60s poll is appropriate for a time-gated condition — fires within 1 min of threshold without sub-minute spam

4h fallback ensures recovery if process restarts near the window; zero-LLM, fully deterministic

Single-use label ('wake 37: post-market-open rebalance') — once fired, if sMSFT swap is partial or unfilled, the next wake script needs to be reasoned from scra

No ENGINE 1 trigger path: the options sleeve (30% allocation) has 0 mechanism to wake when option-taker resurfaces; it only wakes when the stock sleeve's time-g

In w37, pre-author a follow-on wake script before ending the wake, branching on fill outcome: (a) filled → idle / ranking watch cadence, (b) partial/unfilled → repost logic with updated intent, (c) ENGINE 1 resume trigger if option-taker po

ENGINE 1 (options sleeve) structurally idle — 11+ wakes, 0 demand, no fallback posture

The 30% option-writing sleeve posted at progressively tighter premiums (3%→1.5%) across 11+ wakes with zero fills; option-taker-matheus is in 8-wake drought. The sleeve is allocated 30% of mission capital but generating 0 activity with no defined recovery posture.

After N consecutive ENGINE 1 zero-fill wakes (e.g. 5), temporarily reallocate the sleeve's budget to ENGINE 2 stock buys; add a wake trigger that resumes ENGINE 1 when option-taker posts an audited option on-book.

Single-use wake scripts create continuity risk on failed or partial fills

Each wake script is purpose-built for one specific wake. If the 14:35Z sMSFT attempt is partial or unfilled (LP-Maker widens spread due to bleeding), the follow-on logic must be reconstructed from scratch in the next wake rather than already being encoded.

Pre-author the post-w37 wake script during w37 itself, covering all three outcome branches (filled, partial, unfilled) before ending the wake.

Options market bilateral drought — no supply, no demand

Option-writer has 0 open intents (ENGINE 1 paused after 11+ zero-fill wakes); option-taker is in 8-wake drought (0 audited option 0xb3d66f4b on book since Jun14 13:49Z). Neither side is active. This is a fleet-level structural freeze, not either agent's fault in isolation.

Diagnose option-taker drought: is the audited hash 0xb3d66f4b stale/unreachable? Is option-writer's premium above option-taker's strike comfort? Seed option-taker with a fresh book scan to confirm whether zero-demand is decode-failure vs genuine no-bid.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

27.8pp edge (threshold ≥8pp). BTC already $816 above strike. Expected profit $1.85 on $2.67 stake = 69% return on capita

deal #190 expiry (≈10:37 UTC Jun16) or intent fill/new binary (24h fallback)

Summary: Deal #190 (BTC>$64,900, expiry 10:37Z Jun16) has moved further ITM: BTC was $65,716 (+$816) at w58 (10:53Z Jun15, 254 min ago), now at $66,264 (+$1,364 above strike) per fleet data — gap widened by +$548 since prior summary, strongly ITM. Both maker binaries confirmed still open (open_intents=2): #1827 (sMSFT<$420, 79.94%) and #1916 (sNVDA>$195, 77.93%) — 0

BTC at $66,264 is +$1,364 ITM on deal #190 (stake $2.67, implied payout $1.85, expiry 10:37Z Jun16) — agent is correctly parked with no infra issues and fires automatically at 10:32Z Jun16. Two maker binaries (#1827, #1916) still resting unfilled; market structure is the limiter, not the agent.

open_intents=2 (#1827 sMSFT<$420 at 79.94%, #1916 sNVDA>$195 at 77.93%) resting since w56/w57 with 0 fills; no takers have matched. Deal #190 is simply waiting for expiry — on-mission, not blocked.

Sound and on-mission. w58 accepted deal #190 with 27.8pp edge (BTC $816 above strike, now $1,364). Maker binaries posted with Polymarket-calibrated implied probabilities. Prior sAAPL horizon-exit was handled correctly across w54-w56. Agent is not churning — it's patient with a clear expiry event on the horizon.

DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS: time-based, fires at ~10:32Z Jun16 (5 min before 10:37Z expiry)

ownIntentResolved on #1827 or #1916 (fill or expiry)

new binaryBet or option intent appearing on book (scanned every 60s)

24h absolute fallback (~10:37Z Jun16, coincides with deal expiry)

Primary binary taker (42 deals); could take the other side of #1827/#1916 if oracle lags price into edge territory

Takes near-decided binaries — high implied ITM makers (#1827/#1916) are candidates, but pidAlive=false as of this cycle

armed=true but pidAlive=false — structur

Prior custom-live deal; mirrors BinaryBets — could independently post/take matching binaries

Mission is crypto-down / tech-equities-up; would not take NO on sNVDA>$195 (requires bearish NVDA view) or YES on sMSFT>$420

None visible. Watcher polls readOpenIntents every 60s filtering binaryBet/option kinds — no new wake since w58 (254 min) means no qualifying new intent appeared on book since then. Measurable and clean.

Time-based DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS fires 5 min before expiry — precise settle window, no guesswork

ownIntentResolved on both maker binaries (#1827, #1916) ensures fills/expirations are acted on promptly

New binaryBet/option scan every 60s directly serves the core mission (find mispriced takeable intents)

Zero-LLM, PID written on start, 24h fallback — structurally clean

60s poll cadence is appropriate: patient agent, not sub-minute noise

New-binary/option scan has no size or kind pre-filter — in a busier book it would fire on tiny or irrelevant intents before the agent can assess them; harmless

No monitoring of deal #190 settlement status (e.g., if it settles early or is disputed); agent only watches the time trigger

Add a minimum USDC notional filter to the new-binary/option scan (e.g., skip intents where give or want < 5 USDC) to suppress spurious wakes from dust-size intents without missing real taker opportunities.

Maker binaries #1827/#1916 unfilled with only 1 reliable counterparty

sMSFT<$420 at 79.94% and sNVDA>$195 at 77.93% have rested since w56/w57 with no takers. Only arb-hunter-tom is a realistic match; vulture-andrew (the other likely binary taker) is pidAlive=false this cycle.

Consider posting at slightly lower implied probability (e.g., 75-76%) to widen the spread and attract arb-hunter or mimic-ljuba; or accept the thin-book reality and wait — both are directionally sound ITM positions.

Vulture-Andrew pidAlive=false reduces binary taker depth fleet-wide

Vulture is the second most active binary taker (46 deals) and its repeated PID death (armed=true, pidAlive=false) leaves ljuba's maker binaries with fewer counterparties across multiple cycles.

Diagnose and fix vulture-andrew's PID death — recovering it restores binary market depth for ljuba and others.

BTC at $66,264 is +$1,364 ITM on deal #190 (stake $2.67, implied payout $1.85, expiry 10:37Z Jun16) — agent is correctly parked with no infra issues and fires automatically at 10:32Z Jun16. Two maker binaries (#1827, #1916) still resting unfilled; market structure is the limiter, not the agent.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

BTC -1.89pp most underweight. sMSFT at target. USDC freed by fill deployed to BTC DCA. No favorable takes on book.

Summary: LOT-SIZE BLOCK RESOLVED this cycle: after 3+ wakes stuck at sMSFT 0.03 < LP-Maker floor 0.030888, the 14:39Z trim (w52) priced at -0.75% (vs -1.01% prior) found a fill — w53 confirms 'sMSFT at target' and 'USDC freed by fill'. BTC DCA intent #2663 posted at 14:50Z; watcher now armed on its resolution (fill or expiry ~15:50Z, 2h fallback ~16:50Z). settled_dea

The sMSFT lot-size gate that blocked 3+ consecutive wakes cleared at 14:39Z by tightening the trim price 0.26pp to -0.75%. USDC freed, BTC DCA #2663 now open (BTC was -1.89pp underweight per w53). 16 settled deals, $5.25 realized PnL, tokens_5h_usd=$0 (no burn this window).

BTC DCA #2663 posted at 14:50Z; w53 explicitly notes 'No favorable takes on book' — now waiting for LP-Maker or another counterparty to take the swap; sMSFT gate no longer blocking

Sound and adaptive: agent correctly diagnosed that a 0.26pp pricing improvement (-1.01% → -0.75%) would expand the counterparty pool for the sMSFT trim. Non-churning — each wake advanced state (approval → trim → BTC DCA). On-mission throughout.

ownIntentResolved: #2663 (fill or expiry ~15:50Z)

Primary swap market maker (152 deals), most likely taker for BTC DCA if within LP spread

42 deals, takes swap arb opportunistically — may cross if BTC drift creates a spread

none — mission is one patient DCA slice per wake; no evidence of fillable intents skipped. Note: the sMSFT trim that filled was NOT via LP-Maker (whose floor 0.030888 > balance 0.03); counterparty was 0xBd6a…9863 — an external or non-LP address that has smaller minimum lot tolerance. This is an important signal: LP-Maker lot floor is a structural friction for small sMSFT trims, but the market has

Zero-LLM: ownIntentResolved fires on actual fill/expiry, not a blind timer

2h fallback ensures wake even if the resolution event is missed

60s poll is appropriate for a ~60-min expiry window on intent #2663

Wake label 'sAAPL DCA next' shows agent is mid-plan and knows the next target without a cold re-derive

If #2663 fills before stock-oracle-open (13:30Z tomorrow), the 2h fallback fires generically — potentially re-running the 'stocks closed / no USDC' no-op wakes

Watcher has no awareness of LP-Maker's lot-floor for the next stock trim — the same balance-vs-floor friction can recur silently on sAAPL

After fill, compute next 13:30Z UTC for the sAAPL fallback deadline instead of a generic +2h, so the post-BTC wake doesn't land at a 'stocks closed' dead zone.

Post-fill fallback may land outside stock-oracle window again

If BTC DCA #2663 fills before ~11:30Z tomorrow, the +2h fallback puts the sAAPL DCA wake in pre-market, recreating the w47-w50 no-op sequence that cost 4 wakes and $0.65 each.

In the next wake script (post-BTC fill), set fallbackMs to align with the next 13:30Z stock-oracle-open rather than wall-clock +2h.

LP-Maker lot floor is a recurring structural friction for small stock trims

sMSFT trim was only fillable by 0xBd6a…9863 (non-LP), not LP-Maker (floor 0.030888 > balance 0.03). If sAAPL or sMSFT trim sizes fall below LP-Maker's per-instrument floor again, the agent will hit the same gate. The -0.75% price level appears to be the threshold that attracts non-LP liquidity.

CLAUDE.md should note the LP-Maker floor per instrument and the observed price level (-0.75%) that clears the non-LP market; or the DCA plan should size trims to stay ≥ LP-Maker floor.

The sMSFT lot-size gate that blocked 3+ consecutive wakes cleared at 14:39Z by tightening the trim price 0.26pp to -0.75%. USDC freed, BTC DCA #2663 now open (BTC was -1.89pp underweight per w53). 16 settled deals, $5.25 realized PnL, tokens_5h_usd=$0 (no burn this window).

Stacker-Massimo

Taker-led tech-equity accumulator: take resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle, 24/7, ~10 USDC lots; post own bid at oracle+0.5% only when nothing is takeable. Accumulate until 100 USDC deployed; never sell.

Bid 2661 filled immediately; posting next lot (effectively lot #9 of ~10). LP is responsive — no delay needed.

bid 2662 fill/expiry | new LP-sized sNVDA sell ≥3 USDC | sNVDA oracle drift >0.5% | 45-min fallback

Summary: w79–w82 (13:24–14:55Z): Bid 2466 was NOT filled — oracle drifted 2.01% by w80, forcing a cancel and replacement with bid 2624. LP-Maker-Matheus then filled 2624 (w81) and 2661 (w81b) in rapid 11-min succession, pushing sNVDA holdings to 0.224438 (~$47) with bid 2662 now live (~$10 locked, $10 free). Bug 2 materialized at w82: stale state.json read in a concu

Bid 2466 canceled (not filled) at w80 on 2.01% oracle drift; 2624 + 2661 both filled by LP-Maker within 22 min. Bug 2 (stale state) fired at w82 producing duplicate 2664 (self-resolved). Bug 1 (sMSFT gated by misses=0 counter) is measurably active — 0 sMSFT deals in the window, confirmed locked. Agent healthy at 13 deals / +$1.58 PnL.

sMSFT has no taker path while misses=0 is maintained by frequent sNVDA fills. sNVDA accumulation itself is healthy — LP-Maker is the reliable counterparty filling bids in under 15 min. sMSFT 2337 has not been taken since w73; rotation counter never climbs above 0.

Sound and on-mission for sNVDA. The rapid LP-Maker fills are exactly what the mission wants. However, the agent is solving sNVDA accumulation correctly while producing a structural sMSFT lockout as a side effect — the misses=0 reset-on-any-fill logic means sMSFT can only be reached when sNVDA bids expire without a fill, which LP-Maker prevents. The agent doesn't appear to reason about this; it's a

sNVDA oracle drifts >0.5% from base $209.71

new LP-sized sNVDA sell (3–12 USDC) appears on book

5 of 8 visible settled deals; filled 2624 and 2661 in under 22 min combined — primary and reliable

2 settled deals; provides sNVDA sell-side opportunistically

1 settled deal, external wallet — availability opaque

sMSFT resting intent 2337 was within ceiling at w73–w76 but not taken due to misses=0 locking out the rotation branch. Missed 2–3 sMSFT acquisition windows since last summary. sAAPL sell-side noted at oracle+ in w77 but not taken (LP spread too wide). No other measurable misses on sNVDA.

Fires on own bid 2662 resolution — correct: next lot depends on this

Fires on sNVDA oracle drift >0.5% — matches bid-refresh threshold exactly

Fires on new LP-sized sNVDA sell (3–12 USDC) — catches the exact take opportunity mid-cycle

45-min fallback is well-sized for a ~2h avg gap agent that also needs oracle freshness

ORACLE_BASE_SNVDA hardcoded at $209.71 — will produce false/missed drift signals if sNVDA moves significantly before bid 2662 resolves (though 45-min fallback m

LP sell filter caps at 12 USDC — a 13–15 USDC sNVDA sell from LP would not trigger a mid-cycle wake (45-min fallback catches it eventually)

Read live oracle price at watcher init to set ORACLE_BASE_SNVDA dynamically rather than hardcoding $209.71, eliminating the drift miscalculation risk when the watcher is armed after a large price move.

Bug 1: sMSFT rotation permanently gated by misses=0 reset on sNVDA fills

The consecutive-misses counter resets to 0 every time ANY sNVDA bid fills (including LP-Maker fills). With LP-Maker filling bids in under 15 min, misses never accumulates, and sMSFT is unreachable. 0 sMSFT deals across the full observation window despite sMSFT 2337 being within ceiling at w73.

Decouple the rotation counter from fill events: increment misses only when a sNVDA *take* opportunity was present and passed; reset on a sNVDA *take* (not a fill of a posted bid). Or add a time-based sMSFT window (e.g. every N wakes regardless of misses).

Bug 2: Stale state.json read in concurrent session caused duplicate intent 2664

w82 fired concurrently with w81b; w82 read pre-w81b state.json and posted lot 2664 as a duplicate, which required a cancel tx (0x34c3e2a071a9…). Agent noted the fix rule in its reasoning but the wake script itself does not enforce a state.json freshness read at startup.

Add an explicit state.json read as the first step of each wake session before any intent-posting decision, and gate on the last-modified timestamp to abort if a concurrent session is active (e.g., check for a lock file or compare state.json mtime to process start time).

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

Intent 2689 already covers the sNVDA sell-strength signal. Reposting or cancelling would be churn — the post is live, th

intent 2689 resolves or new sNVDA buyer appears (2h fallback)

Summary: Prior crypto-sell silence is now fully explained: zero ETH/BTC/SSV inventory makes sell-side fades structurally impossible regardless of dislocation magnitude. Since w42 the agent correctly pivoted to sNVDA once equities market opened (13:39Z): posted intent 2551 (+2.16% above trailing), then accepted deals 200 and 202 back-to-back from Stacker-Massimo (+1.9

Crypto sell silence since w42 is not a threshold or oracle block — it is zero inventory. Agent holds no ETH, BTC, or SSV, so the +3.74%/+2.43%/+3.07% dislocations are simply untradeable without prior buy-dip accumulation. Since equities market opened the agent executed 3 sNVDA sell-fades (intent 2551 posted; deals 200+202 settled ↔ Stacker-Massimo; intent 2689 now live) — on-mission, well-priced ($210.84/sNVDA vs ~$210.03 oracle at w48).

Zero ETH/BTC/SSV holdings block all crypto sell-fades despite ETH +3.74%, BTC +2.43%, SSV +3.07% above baseline. sNVDA inventory (0.08305 remaining) is actionable and being actively worked via intent 2689.

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly diagnosed crypto sell gap at w41-w43, pivoted without deviation to sNVDA at w44 once stocks went live, then demonstrated learned behavior at w45-w46 (accepting resting buyers beats reposting — explicitly cited as the rationale). No churn, no off-mission drift, threshold application consistent across wakes.

intent 2689 resolves (filled or expired) via ownIntentResolved

new sNVDA buyer appears on book via newMatches filter (USDC→sNVDA legs)

2h fallback (7200s) covers all other asset classes and market shifts

MISSING: no intra-loop check for crypto buy-dip signals — if BTC/ETH/SSV dips below baseline while intent 2689 is open, the 2h fallback is the only catch

Confirmed taker of sNVDA asks: deals 200 and 202 both settled ↔ Stacker; mission is exactly 'take resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1%

Deep swap liquidity but LP-Maker is the ask side for rebalancers, not a natural sNVDA buyer; could fill in a pinch but not the primary taker

ok (152 deals, health ok, but adverse-se

Lot-size blocked (sMSFT balance 0.03 < floor 0.030888); even if sNVDA were its target, the gate has blocked all rebalancer trades since prio

None within mission scope. Crypto sells are inventory-blocked (mission-coherent, not a miss). sNVDA has been actively traded every wake where dislocation exceeded threshold since stock market open. Intent 2689 is live — the current opportunity is being worked.

ownIntentResolved fires immediately on fill or expiry of intent 2689 — no stale intent left rotting

newMatches filter (USDC posterGives + sNVDA posterWants) is precise: targets exactly the buyer profile that lets swing-nikita accept-and-settle without repostin

2h fallback covers all other signals (crypto dip, stock market close, new instrument dislocation)

Zero-LLM polling loop, 60s poll cadence — efficient, no burn

No intra-loop price check for crypto buy-dip (ETH/BTC/SSV falling below baseline): if one dips while intent 2689 is open, the 2h fallback is the only trigger —

Watcher is sNVDA-only by construction; if sNVDA goes sub-threshold before 2689 fills, agent could sit idle for up to 2h even if another stock (sAAPL, sMSFT) dis

Add a multi-asset deviation check in the runWatchLoop body: if any held or watchlisted asset crosses the buy-dip or sell-strength threshold, fireWake immediately — this would replenish crypto inventory on dips and catch stock rotations with

Crypto sell-fades structurally impossible until a buy-dip replenishes inventory

ETH/BTC/SSV have been above baseline for multiple consecutive cycles (ETH +3.74%, BTC +2.43%, SSV +3.07% at last read) — strong sell signals — but agent holds zero units of each. The agent correctly reports this and doesn't error; however, the situation self-perpetuates: no buy-dip → no inventory →

Mission scoping question, not a bug. If crypto inventory starvation is chronic, consider adding a small forced-accumulation rule in CLAUDE.md: 'if no crypto held and a buy-dip appears on any crypto asset, take a minimum lot even if dislocation is marginal, to seed sell-fade capacity.' Otherwise acce

Wake script blind to non-sNVDA dislocations while intent 2689 is open

Current watcher only fires on intent 2689 resolution, new sNVDA buyers, or 2h fallback. If sAAPL or sMSFT dislocates within that window, the agent sleeps up to 2h before noticing.

Add a lightweight multi-asset price check (oracle vs trailing avg for all watchlisted symbols) inside the runWatchLoop body; fireWake if any asset crosses the sell-strength or buy-dip threshold. This is a single additional belt.tools call per 60s tick.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

SSV -$0.01 inflated bait to 2.22%. BTC +$86 eroded replenish to 0.91% below 1.03% proactive. ETH/BTC/sMSFT drifts pushed

25 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781537679; next poll 60s

Summary: PID death UNDIAGNOSED and recurring for 8+ cycles (this cycle: pidAlive=false, armed=true, nextFallbackMin=30); no root-cause investigation visible in w214-w221 wake logs. Gap-protect is compensating effectively: all 8 wakes this cycle (w214-w221) fired and refreshed 6 baits with ~1h TTL each. Current 6 baits (IDs 2681+ posted w221 15:16 UTC) expire ~16:16;

Gap-protect fired on all 8 wakes this cycle and the 6 current baits (w221, 15:16 UTC) sit within their ~1h TTL ceiling — fallback at ~16:01 lands before ~16:16 expiry, so no bait will expire cold. The structural PID death (watcher polling loop dying silently between wakes, ~30 min blind per cycle) remains completely undiagnosed across 8+ consecutive cycles; CMQ stock blindness is a second, independently unresolved detection gap causing missed erosion triggers on every stock-price move.

pidAlive=false every observed cycle (prior summary: PID 198107 dead at w205 10:07; current: same pattern, nextFallbackMin=30). Wake loop executes correctly (wakes_failing=false, wake_error=null) — the issue is the watcher node process dying between wakes, killing the 30s polling loop for up to ~2h p

Sound and on-mission. Each wake (w214-w221) correctly identifies drift direction (bidirectional crypto/stock moves), applies gap-protect, and posts 6 fresh baits with ~1h TTL. w217 temporarily held 5 baits (USDC floor hit) and recovered by w218. CMQ stock blindness is handled with manual detection — reasonable short-term workaround but not a fix. Reasoning is correct; the unsolved problem is instr

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest bait expiry (primary driver; avg_gap_min=39 tracks bait ~1h cadence)

new takeable edge ≥1% via scan-edges (only active when polling loop alive)

quote erosion/undercut via check-my-quotes (only active when polling loop alive; blind to stock prices)

MISSING: active polling loop is dead (pidAlive=false) — ~30 min edge/erosion blind spot each cycle until fallback fires

3 swaps settled this cycle — primary swap counterparty

2 swaps settled this cycle — active taker of vulture baits

2 swaps settled this cycle — active swap counterparty

Unmeasurable during PID-dead polling gap (~30 min/cycle): scan-edges does not run while pidAlive=false, so any takeable edge ≥1% appearing and expiring within the gap is invisible. CMQ stock blindness is a second layer: w220 explicitly documents SSV +$0.01 eroding bait 2644 to 1.38% (below 1.55% floor) that 'CMQ missed' — caught only on the next triggered wake, meaning the under-floor bait was liv

Four-trigger design (edge ≥1%, pre-expiry, erosion, 2h fallback) matches the mission precisely: opportunistic taker + bait poster

Pre-seeded honeypot IDs (779, 836, 869) prevent repeat false-edge fires at zero LLM cost

30s poll interval appropriately fast for a latency-sensitive taker when the loop is alive

Pre-expiry trigger at -5 min ensures baits are refreshed before expiry even in PID-dead cycles (fallback lands at ~30 min, well inside ~60 min TTL)

No self-healing on watcher PID death — when the node process dies, the polling loop stops silently with no alert; only the fallback timer survives

CMQ does not read stock oracle prices — sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA/SSV erosion is invisible to the watcher; documented recurring miss in w218 and w220

Patch check-my-quotes to include stock oracle prices (or add a parallel lightweight stock-price check before the CMQ call) — w218 and w220 both document the same miss, making this the highest-frequency gap in the detection loop.

Watcher PID death undiagnosed — persists across 8+ cycles, ~30 min polling blind spot each time

pidAlive=false every observed cycle since at least w205 (prior: PID 198107 dead 10:07; current cycle: same). The node process hosting runWatchLoop dies silently; armed+fallback masks it but creates a ~30 min window per cycle where scan-edges and check-my-quotes do not run. Exit code/signal has never

Add process-exit logging to runWatchLoop (capture exit code/signal on PID death) and check dmesg/journalctl on the host for OOM kills. This is a repeat occurrence — it warrants a dedicated debugging session, not another cycle of fallback masking.

CMQ blind to stock oracle prices — stock bait erosion misses watcher detection

check-my-quotes does not fetch stock oracle prices. Documented 'known issue' in w218 (14:15 UTC) and w220 (14:52 UTC). SSV +$0.01 at w220 eroded bait 2644 from ~1.80% to 1.38% (below 1.55% lower tolerance) — missed by CMQ, live for minutes before caught on the next wake. Affects all stock/SSV baits.

Patch check-my-quotes to include stock oracle prices alongside crypto; or add a separate stock-price delta check in the watcher loop that fires fireWake on any move beyond a tolerance threshold.

ARB BLEEDS LP, OPTIONS FROZEN

LP-Maker ⇄ Arb-Hunter (21/37 recent fills), LP-Maker ⇄ Vulture-Andrew (multiple this cycle), LP-Maker ⇄ Option-Writer (3 this cycle), LP-Maker ⇄ Stacker-Massimo, LP-Maker ⇄ Rebalancer-Lior

Active but LP-Maker bleeding: -$26.5 realized PnL, -$9.7 this cycle

Bear-Yosher → Mimic-Ljuba + Polymarket-Ljuba (intents 2375, 2454 filled; 159, 160 live)

Active; Bear-Yosher losing as BTC $66,444 sits above every bear strike

Option-Writer → Option-Taker (0 deals since Jun14 13:49Z)

FROZEN: 0 audited option intents on book; option-taker in 8-wake drought

OFFLINE: both agents never initialized across 56 consecutive null cycles

Arb-Hunter-Tom's CEX feed exploits LP-Maker's 60s oracle poll gap

LP-Maker adverse selection: 21/37 recent fills (57%) to Arb-Hunter; PnL -$26.5 cumulative (-$9.7 this cycle alone, up fr

arb-hunter: '21/23 visible settled deals are LP-Maker-Matheus (91%)'; lp-maker: 'BID_GUARDS fire when oracle crosses bid, but 60s poll interval means Arb-Hunter can see and take a fill within that win

Option-Writer-Matheus time-gated until 14:35Z, posted 0 audited option intents since Jun14 13:49Z

Option-Taker-Matheus in 8-wake drought — sole audited options publisher is supply-side dark; sNVDA call on book (0x57F8…

option-taker: '8 consecutive wakes returning Zero audited Option intents found'; option-writer: 'w37 time-gated on epoch 1781544900 (14:35 UTC)'; option-writer rootCause: 'option-taker-matheus in 8-wa

Arb-Hunter front-runs resting ETH supply; LP-Maker avoids adverse-selection fills on momentum-confirmed USDC→ETH flow

Momentum-Nikita intent #2653 (USDC→ETH, implied ~$1,830) resting with 0 fills despite LP-Maker having 152 lifetime swap

momentum-nikita: 'LP-Maker faces adverse selection on momentum-confirmed USDC→ETH flows; arb-hunter-tom likely front-runs and clears resting ETH supply the instant momentum clears'

Swing-Nikita holds zero ETH/BTC/SSV inventory

Swing structurally unable to post crypto sell-fades despite ETH +3.74%, BTC +2.43%, SSV +3.07% above baseline; pivoted e

swing-nikita rootCause.evidence: 'Zero ETH/BTC/SSV holdings block all crypto sell-fades'; agent correctly working sNVDA intent 2689 (0.08305 remaining)

Vulture-Andrew watcher node process dies between wakes — recurring, 8+ cycles undiagnosed

Up to ~2h gaps in the 30s gap-protect polling loop; 6 baits can go stale mid-gap; gap-protect fallback (w214–w221, 8 wak

vulture-andrew: 'PID death UNDIAGNOSED and recurring for 8+ cycles; pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=36'; rootCause: 'pidAlive=false every observed cycle (prior: PID 198107 dead at w205 10:07)'

LP-Maker adverse selection: -$9.7 this cycle, -$26.5 cumulative

21/37 recent LP-Maker fills (57%) are Arb-Hunter-Tom exploiting the 60s oracle poll gap at +26–33bps edge. PnL deteriorated -$9.7 this cycle (prior: -$16.8; now: -$26.5). ETH/BTC bid spreads at -36/-37bps structurally lose to a CEX-feed taker. Burn rate ~$9–11/cycle with no structural change.

lp-maker: 'PnL deteriorated -$9.7 this cycle (now -$26.5 realized)'; arb-hunter: '21/23 visible settled deals are LP-Maker (91%)'

Widen LP-Maker ETH/BTC bid spreads above Arb-Hunter's +26–33bps fill edge, or shorten oracle poll to <30s to close the latency window. Dynamic option: add a fill-fingerprinting guard that detects CEX-correlated takers and widens spreads reactively.

Options market frozen: 8-wake drought, 0 audited supply since Jun14 13:49Z

Option-Taker has found 0 audited intents (hash 0xb3d66f4b…) across 8 wakes. Option-Writer is the sole audited options publisher and shows 0 open option intents — time-gated on the 14:35Z rebalance window. The sNVDA call on book (0x57F8…B0ff) carries the wrong hash and is correctly ignored. Options revenue = $0 until writer fires.

option-taker: '8 consecutive wakes returning Zero audited Option intents found'; option-writer: 'ENGINE 1 (options): option-taker in 8-wake drought'; writer armed, nextFallbackMin=141

Confirm Option-Writer's 14:35Z window fires and posts ≥1 audited option intent with hash 0xb3d66f4b. If the window fires but writer posts zero options, investigate whether sMSFT ranking gate is suppressing Engine 1 in favor of Engine 2 (stock sleeve).

Vulture-Andrew PID death: recurring 8+ cycles, structurally undiagnosed

pidAlive=false every observed cycle for 8+ runs; watcher node process dies between fallback wakes, creating up to ~2h gaps in the 30s gap-protect polling loop. wakes_failing=false, wake_error=null — the wakes themselves execute correctly — so this is NOT a binary crash; it's the persistent watcher process dying. Gap-protect compensates (8 wakes w214–w221 this cycle) but baits can stale mid-gap without a fill opportunity.

vulture-andrew: 'PID death UNDIAGNOSED and recurring for 8+ cycles; pidAlive=false, armed=true, nextFallbackMin=36'; prior: 'PID 198107 dead at w205 10:07Z'

Add PID resurrection to Vulture-Andrew's fallback wake path: on each wake, if pidAlive=false and wakes_failing=false, restart the 30s polling loop before returning. Longer-term: add a supervisor/systemd keepalive to the watcher node process fleet-wide.

Index-Maker + Index-Taker: 56 null cycles, never deployed

Both agents: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, $0 lifetime tokens, 0 lifetime wakes — identical across all 56 observed cycles. The IndexBasket market segment has never been activated. No self-healing path exists.

index-maker and index-taker: '56th consecutive null cycle — every field identical'; rootCause: structural (index-maker) and infra-down (index-taker)

Deploy index-maker/index-taker with valid CLAUDE.md and wake scripts, or formally decommission both slots — 56 null cycles is dead observer weight with no activation signal.

Swap hub healthy: 203 settled, Rebalancer block cleared, Stacker filling fast

LP-Maker is the swap hub for 9 counterparties. Stacker-Massimo saw 2 sNVDA fills in 11 min this cycle (w81/w81b). Rebalancer-Lior's sMSFT lot-size block resolved this cycle (w52 trim at -0.75% found LP-Maker fill; BTC DCA #2663 now live). Arb-Hunter settled 42 lifetime deals, Vulture-Andrew active despite PID death.

settled: 203; stacker: 'LP-Maker filled 2624 and 2661 in rapid 11-min succession'; rebalancer: 'LOT-SIZE BLOCK RESOLVED this cycle; sMSFT at target'

No action needed. Monitor LP-Maker PnL trend — if burn exceeds -$15/cycle, prioritize spread widening above all other fleet work.

Widen LP-Maker-Matheus ETH/BTC bid spreads above +33bps (Arb-Hunter's maximum observed fill edge) to stem the -$9.7/cycle adverse-selection bleed; this is the highest-leverage single move in the fleet.

Confirm Option-Writer-Matheus 14:35Z rebalance window fires and posts ≥1 audited option intent (hash 0xb3d66f4b) — the sole unlock for Option-Taker's 8-wake, $0-revenue drought.

Add PID resurrection to Vulture-Andrew's fallback wake: restart the 30s polling loop on each wake when pidAlive=false; eliminates the up-to-2h bait-staleness gap without requiring a full watcher redesign.

Deploy or formally decommission index-maker/index-taker — 56 null cycles with no activation path consumes observer capacity every run with zero fleet value.

Same structural pattern as last run: Arb-Hunter settled 3 more LP-Maker swaps this cycle (cumulative 42 deals vs LP's 152), Options market remains frozen (0 audited Options on book, option-taker in 8-wake drought), and vulture-andrew PID death persists undiagnosed; only new signal is Momentum-Nikita

LP-Maker bleeding from adverse selection: $94.23/5h burn, 3 Arb-Hunter + multiple Vulture deals settled this cycle — prior PnL was already -$16.8 and spreading further

Options market frozen: option-taker in 8-wake drought (0 audited hash 0xb3d66f4b… on book since Jun14 13:49Z), option-writer at 0 open intents — no options supply/demand meeting

Vulture-Andrew structural PID death: pidAlive=false again (armed=true, nextFallbackMin=34), undiagnosed across multiple cycles

Rebalancer-Lior lot-size block unresolved: sMSFT balance 0.03 < LP-Maker floor 0.030888, trim also below floor — gate has blocked every attempt since prior summary

Index-maker/taker: 55th null cycle each, armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 lifetime wakes — completely offline with no activation signal

3 more LP-Maker↔Arb-Hunter deals settled this cycle — is Arb-Hunter purely extracting from LP-Maker's spread, or has it taken any non-LP counterparty deals; and does its current wake cadence (nextFallbackMin=8, last_wake_min_ago=-2) indicat

The 'Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba [custom] live' entry in recent deals — is this a new position taken since the prior summary's anchor 2454 (BTC<$65,400), or one of the two already-known bets; and with BTC at ~$66,264 (~1.3% above strike) and

Any change to armed/pidAlive/script/wallet since the 55th null cycle — specifically, has any field changed at all, or is this the 56th identical null?

Any change to armed/pidAlive/script since the 55th null cycle; additionally, the open book shows '0x57F8…B0ff [custom] sNVDA call' and DeadlineSwap entries — do any constitute an IndexBasket intent index-taker could engage with, or is the b

LP-Maker settled deals with Arb-Hunter (3x), Vulture (2x), Option-Writer (2x+), Stacker (1x) and Polymarket-Ljuba (1x) this cycle — which counterparty type is generating the most adverse PnL, and are the current vol-adj spreads (set at w210

Mimic is 213min since last wake with nextFallbackMin=103 still counting — has the fallback fired yet; and is 'Polymarket-Ljuba ↔ Mimic-Ljuba [custom] live' in recent deals a new position taken after w111, or a status update on one of the tw

Intent #2536 (20 USDC→ETH at implied ~$1,794) was posted at w47 — has it been filled, partially filled, or is it still resting (open book shows 'Momentum-Nikita gives 20 USDC → wants 0.01093 ETH, 455min left'); and with ETH having rallied s

The open book contains '0x57F8…B0ff [custom] sNVDA call · strike $210.13 · 0.17 USDC premium (1362m left)' — does this intent carry the audited hash 0xb3d66f4b… option-taker requires, and if not, is that the reason for the 8-wake drought ra

The 14:35Z rebalance window has now passed (current time ~14:25Z+cycle elapsed) — did option-writer wake at or after 14:35Z, execute an ENGINE 1 sMSFT rebalance or post an option, or did it defer again; and why does it have 0 open intents i

Polymarket-Ljuba is parked until ~Jun16 10:32Z (nextFallbackMin=1194) — with BTC currently at ~$66,264, is deal #190 (BTC>$64,900) still firmly ITM, and are maker binaries #1827 (sMSFT<$420) and #1916 (sNVDA>$195) still resting with no fill

The lot-size block (sMSFT 0.03 < floor 0.030888) was predicted to recur at the 13:30Z wake — did the agent wake and confirm the gate blocked the trim again, or has it pivoted to a different rebalance target; and is intent #2387 (1.381 USDC→

Bid #2466 (10 USDC→sNVDA, 374min TTL) is visible on the open book — has it been filled since w78, and are the two previously flagged bugs (sMSFT rotation lock resetting only on fill, and the second unspecified bug) causing any measurable mi

All three crypto assets were above baseline at last reading (ETH +3.74%, BTC +2.43%, SSV +3.07%) — has swing-nikita attempted any sell-side fades since w42, and if not, is there a mission cap, spread threshold, or oracle condition preventin

PID death recurred (pidAlive=false, armed=true, nextFallbackMin=34) — did gap-protect fire and refresh the 6 open baits this cycle, are those baits within their 1h TTL ceiling, and has any root-cause diagnosis begun given this is now a conf

Diagnose vulture-andrew's structural PID death: armed=true but pidAlive=false across multiple confirmed cycles — inspect the container/process supervisor to find why the watcher PID terminates between

Fix rebalancer-lior lot-size mismatch: sMSFT balance 0.03 is below LP-Maker minimum 0.030888 AND the planned trim is also below that floor — agent needs either a smaller lot-size or a different trim t

Options supply chain is broken: option-writer has 0 open intents and option-taker has been in drought 8 wakes — confirm option-writer posts an audited Option (hash 0xb3d66f4b…) at next ENGINE 2 wake;

LP-Maker adverse selection: Arb-Hunter (42 deals) and Vulture (46 deals) are the two highest-deal-count agents and both exclusively take LP-Maker — consider whether LP spread vol-adj (set w210) is suf

Activate index-maker and index-taker: 55 null cycles with armed=false, pidAlive=false — these agents have never run; check wallet funding and env configuration to bring them online.