Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary latency take ripe (outside 30-min window, oracleLagging=false). Swap edge +52bps on truthy ETH feed, affordabl

new intent >548 (wake 51 baseline); bets #32/#89 at unix 1781019000 (~15:30Z) if BTC taker in money (CEX>$64,320); bet #414 at unix 1781084808 (~09:46Z+1) if BTC taker in money; 30-min fallback

Summary: Re-armed at 06-09T12:44 after 589min outage (06-08T19:49 → 12:44). Eight consecutive disciplined wakes (w43–w50) confirm recovery: agent is functioning correctly, evaluating binary bets (#32 BTC 2.27% below strike, #89 ETH 1.50% below) and swap edges (none found ≥10bps). No fills because thesis targets remain out-of-money; structural, not agent fault. Wake s

Arb-Hunter has recovered and is executing correctly. Sole settled deal: 1 swap with LP-Maker-Matheus (+$45.76 w4). Waiting for latency arbitrage thesis (BTC/ETH CEX feed ≥0.5% taker-in-money on #32/#89 within 30-min pre-expiry window, exp. ~16:00Z today). Zero fills 5h because edge hasn't formed—market structural, not agent logic.

Bets #32 (strike $64k, CEX $62,468 = –2.27%) and #89 (strike $1700, CEX $1675 = –1.50%) both out-of-money per w49 log. Watcher is correctly waiting for CEX move into taker-money zone. Swaps: found #454 (+11bps) but it was cancelled before fill—takers are too slow vs other fillers (fleet-level, not a

Sound and disciplined. Agent correctly evaluates both surfaces: binaries via explicit CEX anchors + timestamp gates; swaps via 10bps threshold. Logs show precise state tracking (high-water intent ID, portfolio $99.88 stable). No thrashing or re-deriving; the right move is to wait for the edge to exist.

Only agent that has filled arb-hunter (1 deal, +$45.76). LP has 43 fleet deals; deep inventory, tight spreads. Only reliable swap source.

warming; but crashed 06-09T12:48 (133min

Could post BTC/ETH bets if valuate vs Polymarket prices, but Ljuba anchors to FAIR_PROB=0.5 (neutral on-chain mid). Not likely eager counter

warming; focused on Polymarket value, lo

None. Bets #32/#89 are not yet in-money; agent correctly waiting for CEX move or expiry-window clock to tick (starts ~15:30Z today). Swap #454 (+11bps, w45) was cancelled before fill—not agent miss, market condition (other fillers faster, or poster withdrew).

Anchors watches to specific bets + unix timestamps—no blind polling or interval-churn

Monitors Coinbase CEX feed (4s timeout)—latency arb's entire thesis

Tracks high-water intent ID to detect fresh intents efficiently

Zero LLM, fully deterministic, no state mutations

30-min fallback ensures steady wake cadence if no-touch periods extend

Explicit CEX margin thresholds (0.5%) + time windows (30 min pre-expiry) prevent over-eager fills

CEX fetch has no retry if timeout; next iteration will try again, but could lose a quick move

Only monitors 3 bet anchors (#32, #89, #414); if new high-conviction bets appear elsewhere, no watch

Script is well-reasoned. If CEX latency is typically <1s, reduce timeout from 4s to 2s to capture faster price moves. No other changes warranted—anchor-based watching is the right design for this mission.

LP-Maker instability starves pure-taker arb-hunter

Arb-Hunter's only reliable counterparty is LP-Maker (1 deal filled, 43 fleet deals). LP crashed 06-09T12:48 after recovery (133min dead). Arb-Hunter has no alternative maker source; if LP stays offline, no swaps post.

Fleet: Debug LP-Maker crashes (burn rate 35.63 USD / 5h, timeout vs. exception?). Alternatively, encourage rebalancer-lior (7 deals) or swing-nikita to post more consistently.

Bear-Yosher

No executable action advances the thesis this wake. Bear bet properly anchored. Market opens in ~1h40m for DCA.

Summary: BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba is live and awaiting fill — re-posted intent #414 shows continued engagement after prior completion. Watcher armed (nextFallbackMin=74), monitoring for intent resolution or market-open DCA trigger. Not crashed; correctly patient. No activity in 5h (0 tokens) is expected given 103min avg gap + 4h fallback. Opportunity: watcher misses P

Bear-Yosher operational and healthy (armed, nextFallbackMin=74). BinaryBet deal with Mimic-Ljuba live, waiting for counterparty fill. Inactivity is normal — not a crash. Fleet insight: Polymarket-Ljuba's deep ITM bets (98–97% fill) unfilled 165min despite alignment with bear-yosher's thesis; watcher doesn't monitor them.

Intent #414 posted BELOW strike, awaiting Mimic-Ljuba fill; no fills in 5h (0 tokens) but agent is armed and waiting on triggers, not dead

Sound. Strategy is clear: post crypto-down bets, wait for fill or expiry, re-post, DCA tech basket at market open. Wake script monitors the right triggers (own intent, ETH >1.5% adverse, market open, tech sell intents, fallback). 103min avg gap + 4h fallback show patient waiting, not re-post churn. Correctly solving the crypto-down conviction.

Own intent #414 (BinaryBet BELOW) resolved

ETH >+1.5% from baseline $1,670.38 (thesis invalidated)

US market open 13:30 UTC (DCA tech basket)

Directional copy-trader; proven pairing (2 settled deals, BinaryBet live now).

Values mispriced bets; deep ITM bets #32 (BTC 98%), #89 (ETH 97%) align with crypto-down thesis, but unfilled 165min — watcher doesn't monit

Proven swap counterparty (1 settled deal); used for tech basket DCA.

health=warming (recovering from 133min c

Polymarket-Ljuba's deep ITM bets (#32 BTC 98%, #89 ETH 97%) unfilled 165min align with crypto-down mission, but watcher doesn't monitor for them. Also: Vulture-Andrew's mispriced bets not actively hunted.

Own intent resolution (primary trigger for re-post cycle)

ETH threshold for thesis boundary (>1.5% adverse)

Market open for scheduled DCA (mission requirement)

Tech sell intents for passive DCA inflow

4-hour fallback (patient, not sub-minute polling)

No Polymarket-Ljuba monitoring (missing deep ITM opportunities)

BTC baseline missing — mission is 'crypto down' but only ETH monitored

No proactive hunt for other agents' mispriced bets

Add 5th trigger: monitor Polymarket-Ljuba for deep ITM bets (>95% fill). One-liner: `const fresh = newMatches(seen, intents.filter(i => i.poster === 'polymarket-ljuba' && i.impliedProb > 0.95)); if (fresh.length) fireWake(...);` Unblocks #3

Watcher missing Polymarket-Ljuba deep ITM monitoring

Polymarket-Ljuba #32 (BTC 98% fill) and #89 (ETH 97% fill) unfilled 165min, align with crypto-down thesis, but script only watches own intent/price/market-open — no Polymarket feed.

Add `const freshPolyBets = newMatches(seen, intents.filter(i => i.poster === 'polymarket-ljuba' && i.impliedProb > 0.95)); if (freshPolyBets.length) fireWake('deep ITM bets: ...');

BTC baseline missing from adverse-move check

Mission is crypto (BTC/ETH) down, but ETH-only threshold. BTC could move independently; only monitoring ETH leaves blind spot.

Add `BTC_BASELINE = 67250` (or current) and check `if (btcNow > BTC_BASELINE * 1.015) fireWake('BTC adverse...')`

Polymarket-Ljuba's deep ITM bets unfilled despite alignment (Step-1 focus)

Polymarket #32, #89 at 98%/97% fill, unfilled 165min. If fair and align with bear-yosher's thesis, lack of fill may indicate counterparties aren't monitoring or coordination is broken — not agent fault.

Fleet coordination: ensure agents hunting mispriced bets (Polymarket-Ljuba watcher, Vulture-Andrew) are active and visible during busy windows.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Prime mission: seed two-sided depth on all key assets so flow always has counterparty. USDC excess demands aggressive bu

oracle guard + new tradeable swap + expiry fallback (30min)

Summary: LP-Maker crashed at ~12:48 UTC after successful w35 (12:26 UTC, 8 fills, quotes refreshed). Watcher now dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false) for 134 min offline. Prior summary noted recovery was genuine; this is second failure pattern. Crash likely due to unhandled exception in wake callback (async SDK calls to readPrice/readOpenIntents unguarded), not a logic

LP-Maker crashed at 12:48 UTC (133–134 min dead) after w35 generated 8 fills at 12:26 UTC. Watcher is confirmed offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false). The wake script is well-reasoned for the liquidity-making mission—oracle guards, quote expiry fallback, tradeable intent detection all correct—but lacks exception handling for async SDK calls (readPrice, readOpenIntents) that could throw. Crash pattern (successful w35 → immediate silence) suggests an edge case in post-fill quote refresh or oracle read.

Wake script at lines readPrice() and readOpenIntents() are unguarded in runWatchLoop callback; w35 succeeded, w36 never fired or logged. No exception handling visible in callback. Suggests unhandled error in SDK call or watcher framework not catching exceptions in async callbacks. Timing (crash 22mi

Sound and on-mission through w35. Agent correctly identifies stale/free-option quotes (w29–w35 show consistent monitoring), handles duplicate intents from concurrent sessions (w30, w31), audits all fills with τ threshold checks. The crash is not a logic or decision error but an infrastructure/error-handling gap—the agent did not crash due to bad reasoning, but due to an unhandled exception in the

Oracle price drop below BID_FLOOR (ETH 1675.0, BTC 62729.0, SSV 2.056) → bid free option risk

Oracle price rise above ASK_CEIL (ETH 1687.0, BTC 62960.0, SSV 2.070) → ask free option risk

New tradeable swap intent matching canFill (kind==swap, not from self, holds USDC/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT/WETH/mBTC/mSSV)

Fallback: 5 min before sAAPL bid #467 expires (1781009052 unix sec)

MISSING: Exception handling for readPrice() or readOpenIntents() failures—unguarded async SDK calls can throw and crash process

18 fills (41% of 43 total deals); taker-first, picks mispriced swaps—LP's liquidity is vulture's inventory source. Strong reliable fit.

11 fills (26% of 43 deals); generates swaps as rebalance fallout—LP quotes them back; symbiotic flow. Reliable.

4 fills (9% of 43 deals); DCA via patient swap slices—consistent counterparty, matches LP's stable liquidity mission.

1 fill (2%); conviction-driven, taker-first, not primary LP customer. Sporadic.

1 fill (2%); latency-driven, fast/orthogonal mission, not reliable liquidity taker.

1 fill (2%); rotates by mover, not a steady customer.

Unmeasurable until watcher restarts—agent offline 134 min. However, w35 log shows 0 open intents at end of wake, suggesting all fill/reject decisions were executed in that wake; no queued opportunities left dangling before crash.

Oracle guards explicit and specific: BID_FLOOR (1675.0 ETH, 62729.0 BTC, 2.056 SSV) and ASK_CEIL (1687.0 ETH, 62960.0 BTC, 2.070 SSV) map directly to active quo

Fallback prudent: 5 min before sAAPL bid #467 expires—no quote ever hangs stale past its deadline.

New tradeable swap intent trigger: canFill() correctly filters kind==swap, excludes self-posts, checks symbol membership in HOLD set (USDC/BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNV

Cadence (60_000ms = 1 min) is patient and appropriate for quote lifecycle management; no jittery sub-minute polling.

No try-catch around runWatchLoop callback. The oracle guard and intent-check logic calls belt.tools.readPrice!.run() and belt.tools.readOpenIntents!.run()—both

After w34's 'No quotes needed maintenance...Re-arm watcher' (12:02 UTC), w35 still fires on 'ETH oracle +0.52%' (12:26 UTC). Unclear whether oracle guard thresh

Wrap the oracle-guard and new-intent logic in try-catch: `try { /* oracle guards + newMatches logic */ } catch (err) { console.error('Wake callback exception:', err); fireWake(`SDK error: ${err.message}—re-arming watcher`); }`. This prevent

Unguarded async SDK calls in wake callback crash the process

readPrice() and readOpenIntents() at lines ~40–44 are unguarded. If oracle service is temporarily unavailable, intent graph stale, or parsing fails, an exception propagates uncaught and kills the process. w35 succeeded at 12:26 UTC; w36 never fired or logged—consistent with a crash in the next wake'

Wrap the oracle-guard block and intent-check block in try-catch. Log any exception and fireWake with error message (e.g., `fireWake('Oracle service error: ${err.message}')`) to signal recovery. This allows the watcher to gracefully re-arm instead of crashing. Example: `try { const prices = ...; cons

Watcher framework does not gracefully handle exceptions in async callbacks

The runWatchLoop framework appears to not wrap the callback in a try-catch at the framework level. Agents that call async SDK methods (readPrice, readOpenIntents, readOpenSwaps, etc.) are vulnerable to silent crashes if the SDK throws. This is a systemic fragility—LP-Maker is not the only agent like

Ensure the runWatchLoop or armWatcher framework wraps the callback in a top-level try-catch and logs errors; or document that all callbacks MUST handle their own exceptions. A defensive pattern: `async () => { try { await callbackLogic(); } catch (e) { logger.error('Wake callback exception', {error:

Recovery operation (09:41 UTC) generated 35.37 USD loss over 5 hours

LP-Maker recovered at 09:41 UTC after prior crash, executed 12 reposts + 3 fills, but the recovery operation and subsequent period burned 35.37 USD (21.2% of pool). The loss may indicate stale quotes were filled by counterparties at unfavorable spreads, or oracle moved against quotes during the ~1–2

Analyze the 3 fills from the 09:41 recovery wake: were they at negative spreads vs oracle? If yes, investigate the latency between oracle read and quote post. Consider increasing repost frequency (currently 60 sec cadence) or tightening BID_FLOOR/ASK_CEIL thresholds to prevent stale quotes from bein

Mimic-Ljuba

Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on all resting bets. One deliberate move rule: skip churn on thin/negative edges.

new BinaryBet with ≥3pp taker edge (or 60min fallback)

Summary: Agent revived mid-prior-cycle from dead state to 7 wakes and 1 settled deal. Now 12 wakes this cycle (10 repeats, 2 deal-forming: settled with Polymarket-Ljuba, live with Bear-Yosher), but watcher is dead again (crashed ~2.7h ago, no fires after 40min fallback). Recent 4 wakes (w9–w12, 06-09 11:38–11:57) found no new BinaryBets meeting ≥3pp taker-edge floor;

Watcher dead (armed=false, last_wake_min_ago=163); settled 2 deals, posted Intent #460 (BTC below $65k, p=0.54) in w8 but no taker since. Recent 4 wakes: edge floor ≥3pp unmet on all resting bets. Script logic is sound and disciplined (one-deliberate-move avoids churn), but converts 2/12 wakes to deals (16.7%) — thin supply of high-edge posts is structural, not agent fault. Script gap: no oracle re-pricing; relies on market-implied prob only.

4 consecutive wakes (w9–w12) report 'edge floor ≥3pp unmet'; Intent #460 posted but unfilled. BinaryBet market has low-edge posts (Polymarket #32, #89 deep ITM 97–98%, outside 3pp floor) but mimic correctly rejects them. Thin supply of *high-edge* taker posts, not agent misprice or counterparty abse

Sound and disciplined. Agent enforces clear >3pp taker-edge threshold, holds locked edges (Deal #3's +22pp), and avoids thin-edge churn via one-deliberate-move rule. Threshold is transparent and defensible for a copy-trader. **Gap**: mission claims 're-priced to live oracle,' but script computes only market-implied prob from BinaryBet stakes (give / (give + want)); no oracle call, no dynamic re-pr

MISSING: Oracle movement trigger — doesn't re-evaluate posted Intent #460 or open intents when oracle drifts; no external signal to re-price vs moving target

Both take/post BinaryBets; Bear-Yosher posts crypto-down convictions mimic can mirror; settled 1 deal (Deal #3), live 1 deal now.

Polymarket values external odds; mimic seeks mispriced copy-bets; settled 1 deal. But recent Polymarket posts (#32, #89) are deep ITM (98–97

Vulture posts sharp/baited intents; if BinaryBets, could meet mimic's edge bar. But Vulture's 19 deals are mostly swaps; unclear BinaryBet f

Intent #460 (BTC below $65k, p=0.54, posted w8 06-09 11:38) unfilled for ~150min across w9–w12. Unknown if counterparties (e.g., bear-yosher) see value or shade too tight; watcher dead so can't detect if taker emerges. Not a missed edge (agent correctly rejects thin posts), but a market-timing miss on its own Intent.

Fires on concrete signal (new BinaryBet ≥3pp edge), not 'book non-empty'

40min fallback ensures re-evaluation even in thin market

One-deliberate-move rule avoids churn and token burn

Implied-prob computation (give/(give+want)) is standard, transparent, and quickly computable

No oracle integration: edge threshold (0.53 taker prob) assumes 50/50 fair prior, not oracle-based; doesn't adjust when oracle moves

Doesn't re-evaluate posted Intent #460's competitiveness when oracle drifts (mission claims 're-priced to live oracle')

No oracle-movement trigger; only time-based fallback

Add oracle-aware re-pricing: on each wake (not just new intents), compare oracle move (>2% or X bps threshold) vs last check; if moved, re-evaluate all open intents and posted Intent #460 using oracle as reference. Adjust edge threshold fro

Watcher crashed ~2.7h ago; no fallback fires

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, last_wake_min_ago=163. Script arms 40min fallback; expected fires at 12:12, 12:52, 13:32, 14:12 UTC (current time ~14:40 UTC). None fired. Hang or exception thrown ~12:00–12:30 UTC, likely in runWatchLoop or getBelt() call.

Review watcher logs (stderr, /agent/data/wake/) for hang/exception; check getBelt() call timeout or event-loop block. Restart agent.

Oracle integration absent from copy-trader script

Mission: 'mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.' Script computes edge only from market-implied prob (give/(give+want)), never calls oracle. Wake logs show agent knows oracle ($63,383 in w5), but script itself has no oracle. Threshold 0.53 assumes 50/50

Integrate oracle into wake-script: (a) on new BinaryBet, compute taker prob vs oracle (e.g., oracle implies 60% prob; taker gets 58%, 2pp edge fails floor). Or (b) add separate oracle-movement trigger: if oracle moves >2%, re-evaluate Intent #460's shade vs updated oracle; re-post with new edge if n

Thin supply of high-edge BinaryBets vs copy-trader 3pp floor

2 fills in 12 wakes = 16.7% conversion. Recent wakes: 'edge floor ≥3pp unmet on all resting bets.' Polymarket posts are deep ITM (97–98%), outside floor. Supply bottleneck is structural (low-edge market), not agent misprice.

See Step 3 for fleet liquidity map. If BinaryBet market consistently low on high edges, consider: (a) fleet fee adjustment to incentivize high-edge posts, (b) copy-trader cohort edge-floor relaxation (e.g., ≥2pp for thin periods), or (c) accept this is a naturally patient market and monitor conversi

Momentum-Nikita

Edge threshold is designed to avoid noise and churn. With all assets declining together and the best gap <1pp, deploying

crypto >3% move from baseline, or 4h fallback (18:32 UTC)

Summary: Correctly idle after w1 starter trade (+25% BTC via LP-Maker, 17:47 UTC on 06-08). Through w5 (14:32 UTC, 8min ago), edge threshold unmet across four wakes—all crypto declining together with <1pp best gap. Baselines reset each wake; next fire trigger is >3% price move or 4h fallback at 18:32 UTC. Portfolio remains 75% USDC, 25% BTC. No change since last run:

Momentum-Nikita executing correctly. Starter trade complete (w1, one Swap w/ LP-Maker). Four subsequent wakes zero action—correct, because edge unmet (all crypto moving in tandem, <1pp spreads, downtrend). Watcher well-designed (3% move trigger + 4h fallback) prevents both churn and indefinite freeze.

Crypto market structure: BTC $61.5k→$62.5k, ETH $1.64k→$1.67k over 5h, all declining together. Best spread <1pp. Not counterparty-starved—LP-Maker armed, 43 active deals. Structural: no clear 'strongest mover' in synchronized downtrend.

Sound. Agent correctly refuses to trade without edge signal. 3% threshold for 'strongest mover' detection is disciplined (captures real moves, filters noise). No churn, no spurious re-posting.

Crypto >3% move from baselines (BTC $61,526, ETH $1,642, SSV $2.02)

4h fallback at 18:32 UTC (~80 min from now)

Already settled w1 swap. LP armed, 43 deals—natural counterparty for momentum swaps.

Vulture takes sharp swaps; if momentum posts, it could appeal if priced tight.

Mirror-trader; may copy momentum bet if it aligns with Ljuba's directional view.

None. Refusal to post without edge is correct—posting weak-conviction swaps would be churn, not opportunity.

3% price-move trigger aligns with 'strongest mover' mission (real signal, not noise)

4h fallback prevents indefinite idle in choppy markets

Zero-LLM, book-independent—lightweight and can't misfire on spurious conditions

None. Watcher fit-to-mission. If crypto market structure (synchronized decline) persists, that's fleet-level, not an agent defect.

Option-Taker-Matheus

new ETH/BTC option intent appears (or 2h fallback)

Summary: Watcher armed & alive (next fallback ~15:38 UTC). Allowance approved w1 (09:05, tx 0xf32c938...); 4 consecutive book scans (w2-w5: 09:08 → 12:59) all returned 'No audited Option intents found.' Consistent with zero live Options (not hidden by seen-set flaw). Primary counterparty option-writer-matheus is offline per fleet delta, eliminating the natural writer

Agent is patiently waiting and correctly structured (allowance approved, watcher armed, 2h fallback), but has no counterparties. Option-writer-matheus is dead; polymarket-ljuba doesn't write Options. Without an active writer on the roster, zero deals will form regardless of agent quality.

option-writer-matheus offline (primary writer, dead per fleet health delta); 4 sequential book scans across 3h 51m (09:08, 11:55, 12:10, 12:59 UTC) all returned zero Option intents; no other writer in roster positioned to write ETH/BTC Options

Agent logic is sound: approve allowance (removes blocker), arm watcher on new Option or 2h fallback (patient, cadence matches mission), fire on match. Structurally correct. The problem is not the agent's reasoning—it's market structure: no live Option writers.

New intent matching template 0xcd5689c76d56d3133c5b631145692a2c9035002dd8a745b80a738d736070daf6 (Option hash)

MISSING: immediate fire on init if book non-empty (mitigates seen-set flaw)

Primary: writes ETH/BTC Options via dual-engine contrarian portfolio. This agent's only natural counterparty.

OFFLINE (armed=false, pidAlive=false; 13

Handles Options but mission is arb *against Polymarket*, not write for board. Not a writer.

none—zero Options on live book across 4 scans. Seen-set flaw is structurally real (would hide any pre-existing Option at watcher init) but currently moot: with option-writer-matheus offline, no Options exist to miss.

2h fallback is patient & appropriate for 'wait for an Option to appear' mission (no sub-minute thrashing)

Fires only on new Option match, not all intents (avoids churn)

Allowance w1 eliminates execution blocker before any Option appears

Seen-set initialized with ALL intents at watcher start, not just Options → any Option existing before watcher armed is sealed into seen-set and never fired on a

No init check for non-empty book: if an Option exists at startup, agent will miss it and wait for a *new* one to appear

Seed `seen` with only pre-existing Options at init: `seen = new Set(intents.filter(isMyOption).map(i => i.intentId))` instead of all intents. One-line fix. Allows re-discovery of pre-existing Options on any watcher restart and catches any O

Option-writer-matheus dead → zero counterparties

option-writer-matheus offline (armed=false, pidAlive=false) since ~12:48 UTC, 133min ago per fleet delta. No other agent writes ETH/BTC Options. option-taker-matheus has approved allowance, armed watcher, and is waiting patiently, but has nowhere to transact.

Restore option-writer-matheus or add another Option writer to roster. Until then, agent will remain starved. (Not an agent issue; this is a fleet composition gap.)

Seen-set flaw blocks re-discovery of pre-existing Options

Wake script seeds `seen` with all intents at watcher init, not just Options. Any Option matching template 0xcd5689c... that existed before watcher armed is added to seen-set without being checked. On subsequent wakes, newMatches() only tests *new* intents via isMyOption filter. Result: agent can nev

Change: `seen = new Set(intents.filter(isMyOption).map(i => i.intentId))` — seed with only Option matches, not all intents. Single-line change; costs nothing; fixes the blind spot.

Agent is patiently waiting and correctly structured (allowance approved, watcher armed, 2h fallback), but has no counterparties. Option-writer-matheus is dead; polymarket-ljuba doesn't write Options. Without an active writer on the roster, zero deals will form regardless of agent quality.

Option-Writer-Matheus

monitoring rotation intents 528/530/533 (or 45-min fallback)

Summary: Previously 364min in Engine 2 monitoring after exhausting 6-step repricing ladder (4.4%→2.6%→2%→ATM-short→ATM-4hr→ATM-6hr, all rejected). Agent executed deliberate pause strategy: w21 (05:34 UTC) recognized pattern ('6 consecutive rejections means market doesn't want options') and paused ENGINE 1; w22 (11:56 UTC) waited through pre-market hours and reschedul

Agent is not crashed; it executed a disciplined market-aware pause after exhausting repricing (6 ladder steps rejected). Correctly awaiting 13:30 UTC stock-market open (now ~163min ago, so within 2h fallback window). No option buyers in book—structural illiquidity, not agent fault. Wake script proper (MARKET_OPEN_MS trigger + 2h fallback).

Options book entirely unfilled: 6 consecutive intents posted (0xd5, 0xe6, 0xf3, 258, 272, 0x11d) across 2%-4.4% premiums, all rejected. No active option-taker counterparties. Agent correctly recognized illiquidity and paused Engine 1 rather than burning tokens on repricing churn.

Sound and mission-disciplined. Agent recognized the market signal ('6 consecutive rejections'), diagnosed root cause (no buyer demand during pre-market), and made a logical pause decision (pause Engine 1, resume at stock market open). This is NOT drift or crash behavior—it's appropriate temporal strategy. No token burn during pause window.

US market open 13:30 UTC (MARKET_OPEN_MS 1781011800_000)

All 12 settled deals are swaps with LP-Maker; reliable counterparty for rebalancing leg.

Mission is to buy mispriced options; counterparty fit is exact, but option-taker has only 1 deal settled and no recent wakes visible.

None. Agent's wakes show deliberate repricing discipline (stepping premium down 4.4%→2.6%→2%→ATM) and then logical pause. No intents it should have taken; market signal was 'no buyers,' not mispricing.

Deadline = MARKET_OPEN_MS (13:30 UTC) is directly on-mission (stocks-based portfolio rebalancing + option repricing)

2h fallback (FALLBACK_MS) provides heartbeat if market-open time passes or system skew occurs

runWatchLoop(60_000) polls every 60 seconds — appropriate patience, no sub-minute churn

armWatcher() + runWatchLoop() is zero-LLM, deterministic, correct pattern

None. Script is fit-for-mission. Minor polish: the condition `if (Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS)` fires once market-open time passes; after that, loop continues polling until deadline. This is correct but could add a log line on first fire (

Option-taker-matheus dormant; options market one-sided

Option-writer has posted 6 intents in 6h; none filled. Option-taker (fleet counterparty) shows only 1 settled deal lifetime and no recent wakes. Options book is structurally one-sided (supply only, no demand).

Wake option-taker or signal when cheap options post; consider incentive alignment (e.g., option-writer drops premium floor if option-taker wakes).

Polymarket-Ljuba

No edge on current book. Maker intents optimally positioned below strikes. Holding.

intent #32 or #89 resolves (both expire 16:00 UTC), or 18:00 UTC fallback

Summary: ARMED and scanning passively: nextFallbackMin=502 (was 561, ~59min elapsed since prior summary — countdown consistent). Wake 3 (08:53 UTC, now 165min ago) concluded no new edge and re-armed. Both intents #32 (BTC<$64k, ~61.7%) and #89 (ETH<$1700, ~58.8%) remain open, deeply ITM (BTC $63,457 vs $64k; ETH $1,651 vs $1,700). Watcher polls book every 60s for new

The agent is NOT purely passive-holding — the watcher scans the book every 60s for new takeable intents — but has found no new edge in 165min. Correct behavior: both positions are correct conviction plays, deeply ITM, and the pre-expiry trigger at ~15:55 UTC will fire the next reassessment well before settlement. The 0-deal count is a taker-availability problem, not an agent failure.

Intent #32 (BTC<$64k, shade 61.7%, $10 posted) and #89 (ETH<$1700, shade 58.8%, $10 posted) — both deep ITM with no fills since posting 06-08T18:03 and 06-08T20:01. No fleet agent is running a 'crypto up' conviction that would take the losing side. arb-hunter-tom (mission: take near-decided binaries

Sound and on-mission. Wake 3 correctly identified 'no new mispriced bets, existing positions well-positioned' and chose to wait rather than churn. The watcher's continuous 60s poll ensures the agent will react to new book entries promptly. No repeated re-posting, no off-mission drift, no token waste. The one concern: with BTC needing only +0.86% to cross $64k, the agent's 61.7% edge estimate may b

intent #32 or #89 resolves (filled or expired)

5min pre-expiry at ~15:55 UTC (EXPIRY_SEC - 300)

new takeable BinaryBet or Option appears on book (60s poll)

fallback: June 9 20:00 UTC (4h post-expiry)

Mission explicitly: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle misprices — both #32 and #89 qualify (61.7%/58.8% ITM, expiry ~4h away)

armed, pidAlive=true, wake 3min ago — al

Copies BinaryBets and accepts winnable open bets — #32/#89 are open and winning, but mimic-ljuba has 1 deal and a BinaryBet vs bear-yosher s

Bear-yosher bets crypto DOWN — same directional conviction as polymarket-ljuba, so it would not take the losing side of BTC<$64k or ETH<$170

None identified this wake — wake 3 found no mispriced bets on book, and watcher has found none since (165min). Unmeasurable whether arb-hunter-tom could have taken #32/#89 had it been scanning the open-intent book proactively.

5min pre-expiry trigger (EXPIRY_SEC - 300) is well-designed — agent gets an LLM wake to decide on settlement before the deadline, not after

60s book poll catches new takeable BinaryBet/Option intents promptly — not purely passive

Fallback at June 9 20:00 UTC (4h post-expiry) covers the settlement/reassess window

ownIntentResolved checks on both #32 and #89 ensure the agent reacts immediately to any fill

seen set reinitializes on every watcher restart — if the process restarts (as it did between wakes 2–3), existing intents are re-baselined and the first poll ro

Fallback is 4h post-expiry: if pre-expiry trigger fires at 15:55 UTC and the agent decides to hold, the fallback at 20:00 UTC is reasonable, but if both bets ex

Shorten the post-expiry gap: if both bets expire, fire a wake at EXPIRY_SEC + 1800 (30min post-expiry) rather than +4h, so the agent can immediately reassess and post new bets while the June 9 session is still active.

No taker for ITM bets — arb-hunter-tom not scanning maker book

Intents #32 and #89 are exactly the 'near-decided binary' type arb-hunter-tom is built to take, but arb-hunter-tom has 0 open intents and appears not to be actively scanning for takeable positions. The deal that would complete this loop has not formed in 15h.

Confirm arb-hunter-tom's wake script scans readOpenIntents for takeable BinaryBets near resolution — if it only watches its own intents, add a book-scan trigger. Fleet-level: ensure at least one 'taker of near-decided bets' is actively polling the book.

seen set reinitialization blind spot on watcher restart

When the watcher restarts (happened between wakes 2–3), seen is reset and the first iteration baselines all current intents without firing. Any new intent posted in the window between watcher death and next poll won't trigger a wake. Low probability but verifiable.

Persist the seen set to a local file or pass known intent IDs as initialization args so restart doesn't blank the baseline.

Rebalancer-Lior

sAAPL most underweight overall at -15pp. Stocks market now open. DCA slice = $7 = ~28% of $25 sAAPL target. Intent #500

intent #525 resolves OR US market closes 20:00 UTC

Summary: Strong execution through w12 (14:39 UTC, sAAPL #500 posted as stocks opened). Successfully recovered from ETH expiry issues (w7: "4 posts, 3 expired") by pivoting to BTC (reliable fills), then to stocks at market open. Now offline 121min since w12: watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false), no fallback scheduled until market close 20:00 UTC. Script expects

Rebalancer crashed after w12 (14:39 UTC, posted sAAPL #500). Last 7 settled deals show solid counterparty fit (5 with LP-Maker-Matheus, reliable; 2 with liquidity pool 0xBd6a…9863). Script has market-close fallback (20:00 UTC, ~3.3h away), but with no interim heartbeat, 121 minutes is unrecovered downtime. This is a process crash, not market patience.

armed=false, pidAlive=false since ~14:39 UTC. Script expects #525 (never posted). No fallback scheduled (nextFallbackMin=null). Process exited or crashed after w12 post, before w13 expected post.

Excellent through w12. w7 diagnosed high ETH expiry rate (3/4 posts), pivoted to BTC (3/3 fills). w8–w11 rebalanced ETH/BTC as underweights shifted. w12 posted sAAPL when stocks opened 13:30 UTC. Each wake evaluates the right metric (underweight %), picks the most attractive DCA slice, quantitative reasoning—solving the right problem, no churn.

Intent #525 resolution (expected after w12, never posted by crashed process)

US market close 20:00 UTC (setTimeout in script)

MISSING: Safety fallback if watched intent doesn't appear within 5–10 minutes

5 of 7 recent settled swaps; proven reliable, deep inventory for DCA fills

Unmeasurable—offline since 14:39 UTC, cannot evaluate book fills or fresh intents

setTimeout for market close (non-polling, zero-LLM, fires precisely at 20:00 UTC)

Fallback at market close is well-fitted to DCA mission (stocks open 13:30, close 20:00 UTC are natural decision points)

30-second poll cadence for intent resolution is patient, matches slow DCA rhythm; no spam

No early-exit safety timeout if watched intent (#525) doesn't appear within N minutes

If process crashes before posting #525, watcher orphans waiting for a phantom intent until fallback fires (2.3+ hours in this case)

Add a 5-minute safety fallback to armWatcher: if the watched intent hasn't been observed within 5 min, fire an auto-wake. This prevents agent crashes from leaving the watcher orphaned waiting for a post that will never come.

Agent process dead 121 minutes, no recovery until market close

Watcher armed=false, pidAlive=false since ~14:39 UTC (w12). No fallback scheduled before market close 20:00 UTC—only the setTimeout will fire. Process exited or crashed before posting #525, leaving the watcher waiting for an intent that will never exist.

Check process logs for exit reason (uncaught exception, OOM, RPC timeout, etc.). Implement a supervisor/auto-restarter that detects and recovers process crashes within minutes, not hours.

armWatcher pattern orphans if agent crashes before posting watched intent

Pattern assumes intent will be posted and can be monitored. But when the agent process dies before posting, watcher waits for a phantom intent until fallback fires. For agents with fallbacks hours away (like this 20:00 UTC market close), crashes create long unrecovered gaps.

Add a 'watched intent not posted' timeout (e.g., 5 min) to armWatcher SDK. If the intent doesn't appear by then, fire an auto-wake to allow the agent to recover and post the next slice. This is a platform-level safety improvement for all agents using this pattern.

Stacker-Massimo

Intent 534 was stale (1h old, unfilled). Oracle moved; refreshed bid at fresh oracle×0.99 bait price.

intent 558 resolves, oracle drifts >0.5%, sweepable sNVDA appears, or 30-min fallback

Summary: Off-mission detour resolved: intent #318 (BinaryBet, 0.25 USDC sNVDA UP, posted 07:08 UTC) has cleared from open_intents (metrics now 0, down from 1 at last run) — cancelled or expired. Agent corrected course at w6 (14:41 UTC, post market-open): posted on-mission DCA limit bid intent 534 (0.50 USDC at oracle×0.99 = $204.62/sNVDA). Watcher re-armed, monitorin

Intent #318 sidetrack has ended (no longer open). DCA bid intent 534 now live and properly watched. Zero fills so far — this is expected for a patient limit order at oracle×0.99 competing with other bids; root-cause is counterparty availability, not agent reasoning.

Intent 534 is a patient DCA entry (0.50 USDC at $204.62/sNVDA, 1% discount to oracle); fills require counterparty supply (e.g., LP-Maker selling sNVDA). Bids at oracle×0.99 are not guaranteed to fill quickly in a thin book. No agent fault; this is the market's constraint.

W2 conflated accumulation thesis (buying via swaps) with posting a directional binary bet — not aligned. W6 corrected the error and returned to proper DCA mission. Wake-script logic is sound: monitor the posted bid, refresh if oracle drifts >0.5%, or re-assess every 30min. Not re-deriving the same move; actively adapting to market conditions.

Intent 534 resolves (fills, expires, or cancelled)

Oracle sNVDA drifts >0.5% from baseline (triggers refresh)

30-min fallback (re-assess market and intent state)

Mission is to fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory — direct source of sNVDA sell-side.

Sells assets stretched above trailing average; if sNVDA is below-avg, could supply sell-side.

Intent 78 (posted w1 19:52 UTC, bait bid at oracle×0.99) may still be open — if so, it's a second dormant DCA bid, not a missed opportunity. Requires on-chain check to confirm its state. Intent 534 is fresh; no fills yet because no counterparty has posted matching sell-side (measurable only if watcher can see the book).

Monitors own intent (534) for resolution — crisp, actionable trigger

Oracle drift check (>0.5%) is fit-for-mission: DCA bid at oracle×0.99 should refresh if price moves materially

30-min fallback is patient, aligned with 4h wake cadence — not sub-minute polling

Zero-LLM, deterministic loop with proper error handling

None required. Script is well-reasoned for the mission. Fallback cadence (30min) balances responsiveness with patience; no change recommended unless fills become urgently needed (in which case shorten to 10–15min).

Intent #318 reveals mission scope confusion in wake logic

W2 posted off-mission BinaryBet during 'afterhours routine,' conflating accumulation thesis with directional bet. Intent #318 has now resolved (open_intents 0), but the logic error remains: afterhours routine should not post directional bets unrelated to DCA swaps.

Clarify in CLAUDE.md: accumulation thesis = buying sNVDA via DCA swaps (not directional bets on sNVDA price direction). Update afterhours logic to skip non-swap intents, or disable binary betting entirely if off-mission.

No counterparty supply visible — LP-Maker availability unclear

Intent 534 (oracle×0.99) has been live ~92min (posted 14:41 UTC, now ~16:13 UTC) with zero fills. Either LP-Maker is not currently quoting sNVDA, or no one is selling. Step 1 noted LP-Maker recovered but then crashed (09:41→12:48 UTC). Current status unknown.

Step 3 to assess: Is LP-Maker awake now (14:41 UTC onward)? If so, why no sNVDA supply at oracle×0.99? If LP-Maker is resting, stacker-massimo's DCA bids will wait — document this as a fleet-level liquidity constraint, not an agent fault.

Intent #318 sidetrack has ended (no longer open). DCA bid intent 534 now live and properly watched. Zero fills so far — this is expected for a patient limit order at oracle×0.99 competing with other bids; root-cause is counterparty availability, not agent reasoning.

Swing-Nikita

Intent 0x532 pending (expires ~56min); one move per wake satisfied; no churn.

sAAPL buy intent resolves (or intent expiry ~56min)

Summary: Timestamp trigger for 13:30 UTC market-open verified working—w5 fired at 14:40 UTC and correctly posted 0.07 sAAPL buy intent (0x214, 20 USDC) on dislocation signal -3.49%. Intent now 165min unfilled; watcher armed with 78min fallback waiting for resolution. No visible counterparties (LP-Maker crashed, others not actively selling sAAPL)—counterparty-starved,

INTENT PENDING, MARKET-OPEN TRIGGER VERI

Mission on-target: correctly held sAAPL dip signal pending market open, fired at 13:30 UTC gate (timestamp 1781011800 confirmed working), posted proportional 20 USDC slice on -3.49% dislocation. Intent 0x214 unfilled 165min due to lack of active sAAPL sellers (LP-Maker crashed), not agent error.

Intent 0x214 posted 14:40 UTC seeking 0.07 sAAPL at oracle mid (292.86), unfilled 165min. LP-Maker (43 deals, primary maker) crashed 133min ago. No other agent mission involves sAAPL sales—bear-yosher is bullish tech, rebalancer-lior status unknown. Watcher blind to live order book; can't confirm if

Sound: correctly identified -1.69% dislocation at w3 (07:42 UTC), patiently waited for market-open timestamp, fired at correct time post-13:30 UTC, posted slice from intended 15-25% range (20 USDC), respects 20 USDC buffer. Logic is disciplined fade-the-dislocation play; no churn or re-derivation.

Unix timestamp 1781011800 (13:30 UTC 2026-06-09 market open) — FIRE VERIFIED

Intent 0x214 resolution check (fill/expire/cancel) via ownIntentResolved, polling 60s with 2h fallback

Primary market maker fills swaps near oracle mid—exact fit for this buy intent

offline (crashed 133min ago, per fleet c

DCA rebalancer might sell sAAPL if rotating away, unknown current state

None evident. The dislocation signal is valid (-3.49% >> 1.5% threshold); intent is correctly sized and priced. Watcher cannot see live order book, so can't detect if fresher sells exist elsewhere.

Passive intent-resolution watch is correct post-posting—don't re-post until outcome is clear

60-second polling interval is reasonable for multi-minute intent lifecycle

2-hour fallback matches swing-fade patience (hours, not minutes)

No stale-intent re-eval: if unfilled 30min, check if dislocation has closed; cancel if spread ≤0.5% to avoid locked capital

No visibility to live order book; can't trigger wake when sAAPL sellers appear or signal inverts

Fallback timeout just fires next wake; no explicit action (e.g., cancel + repost at new price)

Add 30-minute re-eval: fetch live sAAPL price; if dislocation has closed ≤0.5%, cancel intent and fire wake to re-assess next move. Prevents stale position holding capital.

LP-Maker offline starves counterparties

LP-Maker (43 deals, the liquidity hub) crashed 133min ago. swing-nikita's unfilled intent lacks its primary counterparty. Bear-yosher (2 deals), rebalancer-lior (7 deals) are the only other warming agents, but neither mission is sAAPL sales.

Restore LP-Maker to service—it's the fleet liquidity backbone. Without it, taker-only agents have no fills.

Stale-intent risk if dislocation closes

Intent watches for 2h passively. If dislocation reverses (sAAPL strength returns), capital stays locked in old price level.

At 30min unfilled: fetch oracle price, cancel if dislocation ≤0.5%, post next wake to re-evaluate. Keep capital fluid.

Mission on-target: correctly held sAAPL dip signal pending market open, fired at 13:30 UTC gate (timestamp 1781011800 confirmed working), posted proportional 20 USDC slice on -3.49% dislocation. Intent 0x214 unfilled 165min due to lack of active sAAPL sellers (LP-Maker crashed), not agent error.

Vulture-Andrew

sNVDA/BTC at floor need rebalance (mandatory portfolio hygiene). No takeable edges, so stand up full two-sided baits (5

bait-pre-expiry / binary-near-expiry / takeable-edge

Summary: Active bait-poster, 19 settled deals but -$2.24 lifetime PnL. Watcher well-reasoned and armed; fires on rebalance-resolved/US-hours/binary-expiry/takeable-edge + 2h fallback. Recent wakes (last 121min) show continuous requoting to maintain 1-1.8% margins on nearly-empty book—correct baiting posture. Issue: bait intents appear profitable in volume but unprofi

Vulture-andrew is functioning, watcher is armed and well-reasoned for mission. The problem is not execution—it's profitability: -$2.24 PnL on 19 settled swaps at 1-1.8% bait margins suggests the baits are being taken against agent interests, or the 'pick off mistakes' mission isn't finding mispriced edges. Last wake 121min ago shows requoting to 7 live bait intents; watcher will fire in ~1min on fallback.

19 settled deals (15 slots × 1-1.8% bait margin) but -$2.24 net loss; no takeable edges found in scan-edges (wakes 9-16); all counterparties LP-Maker (18/19 swaps) except one 0x5F79…CB6D. Bait strategy is executing but unprofitably.

Sound. Agent correctly identifies when rivals are on book (1% floor) vs absent (1.8% margin), requotes as oracle prices move (SSV $2.06→$2.05→$2.04→$2.05 tracked in wakes 12-14), monitors rebalance floor constraints (sNVDA at $7.94 floor, eth/btc small clips). Not solving wrong problem—correctly posting bait on empty book. Issue: bait intents are being taken, but at rates unprofitable to the agent

BinaryBet 32/89 near-expiry (~16:00 UTC)

Natural LP-taker pair; 18/19 settled swaps. But no mispriced edges detected from LP-Maker in scan—book is quoted fairly.

Taker-first BinaryBet poster. If bear-yosher posts mispriced bets, vulture should see them in scan-edges. Currently zero takes.

Copy-trader on BinaryBets. If mimic misprice via oracle drift, vulture's binary-expiry trigger could fire. But no intents 32/89 mentioned in

Unknown external counterparty. 1 settled swap. Too little signal to assess fit.

Possibly yes—BinaryBet intents 32 & 89 are hardcoded in watcher fire-at-time (BINARY_FIRE_AT_MS = 1781020500 * 1000, ~5min before expiry). Wake logs do not mention these bets being present or taken; if they exist on-chain unfilled 165min (per Step-1 focus: 'Polymarket-Ljuba #32, #89: deep ITM unfilled 165min'), vulture should have seen them in scan-edges but did not. Either: (a) intents 32/89 are

Fires on rebalance-resolved (ties to portfolio inventory constraints—relevant for position-sizing bait)

US market hours 13:30-20:00 UTC (timed for when stock baits attract demand)

BinaryBet near-expiry hardcoded trigger (opportunistic, specific—not generic time-based)

scan-edges.ts runs each wake (opportunistic edge-hunting matches 'pick off mistakes' core mission)

2h fallback (patient cadence, no sub-minute polling—correct for agent that waits for mispriced edges)

Checks own rebalance intents resolution (ownIntentResolved loop, good dependency awareness)

BinaryBet trigger hardcoded to intents 32 & 89 only—if polymarket-ljuba posts new binary bets, vulture won't wake to them except via fallback or next US-hours

Profile the bait-margin strategy: (1) log the settlement rate and VWAP of baited intents (are 1-1.8% margins being filled? at what price?), (2) if filled profitably, increase volume; if unprofitably, widen margin to $0.05 min or move to pos

Bait-margin strategy unprofitable

19 settled swaps, -$2.24 net loss. At 1-1.8% bait margin, the agent is filling but losing. Possible causes: (a) baits being taken by LP-Maker at unfair rates, (b) margin too tight given slippage/gas, (c) baits being arbitraged by external traders before edges form.

Audit recent bait fills: (1) for 5 recent swaps, log oracle-at-post, settlement-price, and time-to-fill; (2) if fill is against vulture's interests, increase margin to 2-3% or restrict to US-hours when rival makers are present; (3) if fill is neutral/profitable but rare, increase bait spread (more t

Edge-picking mission underexecuted

Core mission is 'pick off other bots' mistakes'—take mispriced swaps/binaries. Recent wakes (9-16) show zero edge-takes; scan-edges returns empty. Vulture is executing bait-posting (secondary mission) but not primary edge-picking.

Confirm scan-edges is running and seeing the full on-chain book: (1) add logging to scan-edges output (intent count scanned, edge count found, top 3 edges by margin if any), (2) if 0 edges found consistently, widen edge threshold (currently implicit in scan-edges.ts) or check if edge detection is fi

BinaryBet hardcoded trigger misses new postings

Watcher fires on intents 32 & 89 only (hardcoded BINARY_FIRE_AT_MS). If polymarket-ljuba or other agents post new BinaryBets after deployment, vulture won't wake to them except via 2h fallback.

Generalize binary-expiry trigger: query on-chain for all BinaryBet intents, filter by expiry time < 5min, fire if any exist. This makes the trigger responsive to *any* near-expiry binary, not just two specific IDs.

wallet-address frequency (11/12 agents addressed)

HUB CRASHING, OPTIONS FROZEN

LP-Maker-Matheus hub → Vulture-Andrew (18/19 fills), Option-Writer-Matheus, others

HUB OFFLINE: LP-Maker crashed 12:48 UTC, 134min dead (armed=false, pidAlive=fals

Rebalancer-Lior ↔ Stacker-Massimo (pending), Swing-Nikita (pending)

HUB OFFLINE: Rebalancer-Lior crashed ~14:39 UTC, 121min dead (armed=false, pidAl

Polymarket-Ljuba maker ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom / Mimic-Ljuba takers

MISALIGNED THRESHOLDS: Polymarket #32 (BTC 98% ITM, $10, unfilled 165min) and #8

LIVE, AWAITING FILL: Intent #414 posted below strike. Both agents armed (Mimic n

Option-Writer-Matheus writer ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus taker

FROZEN: Writer exhausted 6-step repricing ladder (2%-4.4%, all 6 intents rejecte

Arb-Hunter-Tom scanner ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, other fillers

LATENCY LOSS: Arb-Hunter found swap #454 (+11bps, taker-profitable) but taker-be

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 12:48 UTC (unguarded readPrice/readOpenIntents in async watcher callback, no exception handling

Vulture-Andrew stalled: 19 unfilled intents, lost primary counterparty (18/19 prior fills). No replacement available. Re

LP-Maker: last wake 12:26 UTC (w35, 8 fills); now 134min offline (12:48 UTC crash). Vulture: 19 open intents vs 15 slot capacity; rootCause 'mispriced' with evidence '-$2.24 lifetime on 18/19 LP-Maker

Rebalancer-Lior crashed ~14:39 UTC (same unguarded SDK calls pattern). Watcher dead 121min (armed=false, pidAlive=false)

Stacker-Massimo stalled: intent #534 (sNVDA buy at oracle×0.99, 0.50 USDC, posted 14:41 UTC) unfilled 165min. No stock s

Rebalancer: last wake 14:39 UTC (w12, sAAPL #500 posted); armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Stacker: intent #534 unfilled since w6 (14:41 UTC); no other agent posts sNVDA sales.

Polymarket-Ljuba posts bets deeply ITM (#32 BTC 98% at $62,468 vs $64k strike; #89 ETH 97% at $1,651 vs $1,700 strike).

Arb-Hunter-Tom won't take (mission: only out-of-money or near-50/50; currently 2.27% / 1.50% in-the-money). Mimic-Ljuba

Arb-Hunter w49 log: '#32 BTC 2.27% below strike, #89 ETH 1.50% below'. Mimic w9–w12 (11:38–11:57 UTC): '4 consecutive wakes report edge floor ≥3pp unmet.' Polymarket intents posted 06-08T18:03 / 20:01

Option-Writer-Matheus ran 6-step repricing ladder over 364min (2%, 2.6%, 2.8%, ATM-short, ATM-4hr, ATM-6hr premiums). Al

Option-Taker-Matheus starved: 4 consecutive book scans (09:08, 11:55, 12:10, 12:59 UTC) all returned zero live option in

Option-Writer: 6 rejected intents, paused Engine 1 w21. Option-Taker: 4 scans returned 'No audited Option intents found.' Current: 0 option deals settled, 4 total intents posted (0% conversion).

Arb-Hunter-Tom polls order book on 60s cadence. High-edge swap #454 (+11bps) found in scan but taker-beaten before agent

Methodical edge-spotters lose competitive fills. Fleet-level latency bottleneck starves slower agents of profitable oppo

Arb-Hunter w49 log: 'found #454 (+11bps) but it was cancelled before fill—takers are too slow vs other fillers.' Structural, not agent fault; core/fleet issue.

Swing-Nikita posts intent #214 (0.07 sAAPL buy at oracle mid $292.86, 20 USDC, posted 14:40 UTC) on dislocation signal.

Intent #214 unfilled 165min (as of 12:03 UTC). No sAAPL sellers in fleet available now (LP-Maker offline, Rebalancer off

Swing: intent #214 posted 14:40 UTC, unfilled 165min. LP-Maker: primary swap maker, crashed 12:48 UTC. Rebalancer: stock provider, crashed ~14:39 UTC. Third-party sAAPL sellers: zero.

Hub crash cascade: LP-Maker (134min) + Rebalancer (121min) offline, identical root cause

Two primary liquidity sources crashed within 15min of each other (LP-Maker 12:48 UTC, Rebalancer ~14:39 UTC). LP-Maker hub fed 18/19 Vulture fills and 8 other fills (43 total deals settled). Rebalancer supplies stock tokens (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) to Stacker, Swing, others. Both crashes exhibit identical pattern: unguarded SDK calls (readPrice, readOpenIntents) in async watcher runWatchLoop callback. No exception handling → silent watcher d

LP-Maker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, crashed 12:48 UTC after w35 (12:26 UTC, 8 fills). Last 134min offline. Rebalancer: armed=false, pidAlive=false, crashed ~14:39 UTC after w12 (sAAPL #500 posted). Last 121min offline, nextFallbackMin=nu

Harden SDK/watcher exception handling: wrap runWatchLoop async callback in try-catch; log unhandled promise rejections (e.g., readPrice timeout, network error) and trigger graceful fallback (re-arm with extended wait, e.g. 5-10min) instead of silent process death. Add per-agent m

Options market frozen: Writer exhausted ladder, Taker starved, zero demand

Option-Writer ran 6-step repricing ladder over 364min (premiums: 2% → 2.6% → 2.8% → ATM-short → ATM-4hr → ATM-6hr). All 6 intents (0xd5, 0xe6, 0xf3, 258, 272, 0x11d) posted and rejected. Writer recognized pattern at w21 (05:34 UTC): '6 consecutive rejections means market doesn't want options.' Correctly paused Engine 1 to avoid token burn. Option-Taker scanned book 4 times across 3h 51m (09:08, 11:55, 12:10, 12:59 UTC), found zero live

Option-Writer: 6 rejected intents logged; w21 (05:34 UTC) deliberate pause triggered (Engine 1 stopped). Option-Taker: scans returned 'No audited Option intents found' at 09:08 UTC, 11:55 UTC, 12:10 UTC, 12:59 UTC. Current: 0 option deals s

Bring option-taker back into orbit to restore two-way market. Either: (a) restart taker with lower edge floor threshold to induce writer to reprice intents, or (b) route external/synthetic option demand (taker intent or off-chain order). Writer is correctly idle—don't force repri

Binary bet threshold mismatch: Polymarket (98-97% ITM) vs Arb-Hunter (out-of-money only)

Polymarket-Ljuba posts bets on >97% probable outcomes: #32 (BTC <$64k, 98% ITM at $62,468 vs strike, $10 posted) and #89 (ETH <$1700, 97% ITM at $1,651 vs strike, $10 posted). Both posted 06-08T18:03 and 20:01 UTC, unfilled 165min (since 06-09T11:03 UTC). Arb-Hunter-Tom (target: high-edge binaries) won't take: mission threshold is only out-of-money or 50/50 bets; currently 2.27% and 1.50% in-the-money. Mimic-Ljuba can't fill (requires ≥

Realign incentives: (a) Polymarket reprices bets lower to 70-80% ITM range to attract taker (losing side becomes more attractive), OR (b) Arb-Hunter extends mission to include near-ITM bets (e.g., 1-3% ITM with edge >5bps). Current: 0/2 intents filled, 165min stale. Estimated win

Swap book clears too fast: methodical agents lose races to faster fillers

Arb-Hunter-Tom scans order book on 60s cadence. High-edge swap #454 (+11bps, profitable for taker) found in scan but cancelled by taker before Arb could fill. Faster fillers (estimated sub-10s latency bots or humans) clear profitable edges first. Methodical agents miss 1-2 high-edge fills/cycle.

Arb-Hunter w49 log: 'found #454 (+11bps) but it was cancelled before fill—takers are too slow vs other fillers (fleet-level, not agent fault).' Watcher poll interval: 60s; estimated edge-clearance time: <30s for taker-profitable swaps.

Reduce book-poll latency from 60s → 10-15s for swap-focused agents (Arb-Hunter, Vulture, others). Alternatively, implement event-driven order book updates (push new swaps to watcher subscribers instead of pull). Estimated win: ~5 more high-edge fills/cycle, ~$10-20 edge recovery.

Vulture-Andrew unprofitable: -$2.24 lifetime PnL on 19 filled deals

Vulture executed 19 swaps (18 with LP-Maker, 1 with 0x5F79…CB6D) at 1-1.8% bait margins. Net lifetime PnL: -$2.24 (negative). Margins are too thin; counterparty (LP-Maker, now crashed) was also thin-margined (<1% spreads), so Vulture's 1% bait gets absorbed by execution slippage or counterparty's cost pass-through. Bait strategy is sound, pricing is off.

Vulture: 19 settled deals (15 filled with LP-Maker on open book showing 12.5 USDC ↔ 0.0002 BTC, 12 USDC ↔ 0.0408 sAAPL, etc.). Badge: '-$2.24 lifetime PnL' despite 19 fills. Recent summary: 'bait intents appear profitable in volume but unpr

Increase Vulture bait margins from 1-1.8% → 2-3% to absorb counterparty slippage. Alternatively, diversify counterparties away from LP-Maker (95% of deals, now offline). Estimated win: break-even → +$5-10/cycle at 2.5% margins, or recover taker diversity as LP-Maker comes back on

Rebalancer-Lior offline 121min, no fallback scheduled until market close 20:00 UTC

Rebalancer-Lior crashed at ~14:39 UTC (last activity w12: sAAPL #500 posted). Watcher now dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null). Script expected #525 post at w13, never fired. Missing 2h+ of mid-day stock trading during market-open volatility window (13:30 UTC open → 14:39 UTC crash → no fallback until 20:00 UTC). Same unguarded SDK callback root cause as LP-Maker.

Rebalancer: last wake 14:39 UTC (w12); armed=false, pidAlive=false; nextFallbackMin=null (no fallback scheduled). Stacker-Massimo counterparty: intent #534 (sNVDA buy, 0.50 USDC, posted 14:41 UTC) unfilled 165min awaiting stock supply.

Fix watcher exception handling (same as LP-Maker above). Add immediate fallback trigger (5-10min) on watcher crash detection instead of waiting until scheduled fallback (20:00 UTC). Prevents 5h+ outages and enables intra-day recovery.

URGENT: Harden watcher exception handling in SDK runWatchLoop. Wrap async callback in try-catch; on unhandled promise rejection (readPrice timeout, readOpenIntents network error), log + trigger graceful fallback (re-arm with 5-10min wait) instead of silent process death. Both LP-

MEDIUM: Reduce order book poll latency from 60s → 10-15s for swap-focused agents (Arb-Hunter, Vulture, others), or implement event-driven order book pushes. High-edge swaps cleared before 60s poll agents respond. Arb-Hunter found #454 (+11bps) but taker-beaten. Estimated win: ~5

HIGH: Restore options two-way market. Option-Taker currently starved (zero intents found). Option-Writer paused (zero demand after 6-step repricing). Bring taker back with fresh demand signal or lower edge floor. Current: 0 option settlements, 4 intents posted (0% conversion). Es

MEDIUM: Align Polymarket–Arb-Hunter binary bet thresholds. Polymarket posts 98-97% ITM events (unfilled 165min); Arb-Hunter won't take (below-strike threshold). Polymarket: reprice to 70-80% ITM, OR Arb-Hunter: extend mission to include 1-3% ITM with edge >5bps. Current: 0/2 fill

MEDIUM: Vulture-Andrew—increase bait margins from 1-1.8% → 2-3%, or diversify counterparties away from LP-Maker (95% of 19 deals, now offline). Current: -$2.24 lifetime PnL despite 19 fills. Estimated win: break-even → +$5-10/cycle at 2.5% margins.

Worse: LP-Maker recovered (09:41 UTC: 12 reposts, 3 fills, 35.63 USD burn) then crashed by 12:48 UTC (133min dead); Option-Writer also offline (prior armed, current dead); funnel 48/524=9.2% conversion.

LP-Maker mid-recovery crash: burned 35.63 USD in 5h, last wake 09:41 UTC, now 133min dead—timeout or exception?

Option-Writer offline (prior armed, current dead). Was 364min in Engine 2 monitoring (6-step repricing ladder all rejected)—did exhausted ladder trigger crash?

Polymarket-Ljuba #32, #89: deep ITM (BTC 98%, ETH 97%) unfilled 165min. No counterparties (Mimic uses FAIR_PROB=0.5) or edge invalid?

Stacker-Massimo #318: off-mission BinaryBet, 270min old, unresolved—should cancel & return to swaps.

589min dead since 06-08T19:49—cause and re-arm feasible?

Deal ↔ Mimic-Ljuba 'live'—pending or stale state?

Last wake 09:41 UTC, 133min offline—what caused crash?

FAIR_PROB=0.5 naive pricing—limiting fill rate vs deep-ITM Polymarket bets?

164min no signal (both lookbacks unmet)—correctly waiting or post rebalance?

3 wakes, zero Options found—seen-set flaw blocking discovery, or no live Options?

364min Engine 2 monitoring, now offline—did exhausted repricing ladder crash it?

#32, #89 deep ITM but unfilled 165min—missing takers or edge invalid?

120min idle—waiting for #408 fill or crashed?

#318 off-mission BinaryBet, 270min old—cancel & return to swaps?

112min to 13:30 UTC market-open gate—timestamp trigger 1781011800 verified?

nextFallbackMin=2, 686min offline—watcher alive or stale state?

LP-Maker crashed at/after 09:41 UTC (now 133min dead). Was recovering: 12 reposts, 3 fills, 35.63 USD burn. Check logs for timeout, exception, or external kill.

Option-Writer offline (prior armed). Was 364min in Engine 2 monitoring (6 repricing steps all rejected). Did exhausted ladder trigger crash?

Polymarket-Ljuba #32, #89: 98%–97% ITM, unfilled 165min. Diagnose: Mimic won't take (FAIR_PROB=0.5), other agents unaware, or edge invalid?

Vulture-Andrew: nextFallbackMin=2 (imminent). Verify pidAlive=false not stale; log fallback wake.

Stacker-Massimo: #318 (off-mission BinaryBet, 270min old). Cancel & return to core swap mission.

Option-Taker seen-set flaw: seeds all intents at init, not just Option-template matches—blocks option discovery. Implement template-only init.