Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary in 30-min window; no swap edge ≥10bps with matching profitable intent; new intent taker-negative.

new intent >#841, OR binary #836 in 30-min window with CEX taker decided, OR 30-min fallback

Summary: Agent remains ARMED and disciplined (111 wakes, pidAlive=true, 30-min fallback). 2/111 fills (1.8%, flat since last summary at 105 wakes) due to LP-Maker-Matheus offline 919 min (starves primary swap counterparty, 69% of fleet's liquidity) + thin binary book (wakes w105-w112 find zero taker edges in 30-min window: binaries OTM or outside expiry, swaps below

Arb-hunter-tom is sound and active (111 wakes, armed=true, pidAlive=true). Zero fill rate (2/111 = 1.8%) is due to LP-Maker-Matheus offline 919 min (starves swaps, primary counterparty) and thin binary book (no OTM binaries in 30-min window with ≥0.5% taker margin across last 8 wakes / 2 hours). Depends on LP-Maker recovery (core SDK promise-drop bug), not agent-side fixes.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 919 min (primary swap counterparty; 11/16 fleet settled deals—69%—routed through LP; health=stuck, armed=false, pidAlive=false, core promise-drop uncaught). Binary book thin: wakes w105-w112 (last 2 hours, 06:34–09:31 UTC) zero OTM binaries in 30-min settlement window with t

Sound and on-mission. Wakes w105-w112 show disciplined binary checks: correctly applies isAbove logic to determine taker in-the-money, correctly gates on 30-min expiry window (time-decay signal), correctly checks swap edge ≥10bps + fundable matching intent. No loops, no re-posting, no churn. Agent solves the right problem (latency arbitrage) with zero results—this is the market's constraint, not r

new intent > HIGH_WATER (767) — assumes newer intents are fresher swaps from new posters

binary bet in 30-min settlement window with taker in-the-money ≥0.5% margin vs CEX price (BTC/ETH/SSV)

30-min fallback (patience guard, reasonable for thin latency market)

MISSING: explicit wake on 'LP-Maker-Matheus back online' — currently waits up to 30-min fallback timer; could fire sooner if fleet signals key counterparty reco

Primary swap maker (fills swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory); offline 919 min → eliminates available swap edges for all takers

OFFLINE (health=stuck, armed=false, pidA

Swap maker; arb-hunter filled 1 swap with Vulture recently. Vulture also posting (8 open, 21–40m aged, zero fills).

ONLINE (recently restarted, last_wake 22

Posts BinaryBets; arb-hunter takes taker side. But bear posts conviction bets (crypto-down direction), not latency-edge mismatches.

ONLINE (health=ok, 14 deals) — wrong bet

None. Watcher reads full book (readOpenIntents limit 100) each 60s. Recent wakes w105-w112 show zero intents meeting take criteria: no binary OTM in 30-min window with ≥0.5% taker margin, no swap edge ≥10bps, or edge requires assets not held. Nothing exists to miss.

Wakes on meaningful signals: new high-ID intents (fresh swaps from new posters), binaries with taker edge + time decay (30-min window)

Fetches CEX prices (Coinbase BTC/ETH, Binance SSV) to compute taker-in-the-money margin vs on-chain oracle strikes—core latency-arb signal

Margin guard (≥0.5%) prevents penny pinching; time window guard (30–1800 sec to expiry) captures time-decay benefit

60s book poll cadence is active but not chatty; 30-min fallback is patient for thin market; zero-LLM, can't fire on 'book non-empty'

Correctly applies isAbove logic for taker-side determination (taker bets opposite poster)

No explicit wake trigger for 'LP-Maker-Matheus back online'—if primary counterparty recovers, agent waits up to 30 min for fallback timer

HIGH_WATER (767) assumes newer intents are better; old swaps from deep-inventory makers (LP-Maker, if it came back) might be missed

Add fleet-level watch: if LP-Maker-Matheus comes back online (watcher.armed→true after offline window), fire a wake immediately rather than wait 30-min fallback. This unblocks primary liquidity source. (Core SDK: add optional 'watchCounterp

SDK armWatcher promise-drop uncaught (root cause of fleet gridlock)

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 919 min ago; watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false. Step-1 flags 'core promise-drop is root cause.' This offline agent starves all swap-dependent takers (arb-hunter, vulture, rebalancer, swing, stacker). 11/16 fleet's recent settled deals (69%) routed through LP-Maker.

Core SDK team: fix uncaught promise in armWatcher / SDK wake-loop (likely wake-watch.js). This recovers LP-Maker and unlocks 69% of fleet's liquidity path.

Binary book thin or edges rare in 30-min window

Recent 8 wakes (w105-w112, 2-hour span 06:34–09:31 UTC) show zero OTM binaries in agent's 30-min settlement window with ≥0.5% taker margin. Book may be thin, or most posted binaries are beyond 30-min expiry (old/stale) or are OTM for taker.

Monitor binary posting cadence and expiry distribution fleet-wide. If binaries mostly beyond 30-min window, encourage shorter-dated posts. If taker margin threshold (0.5%) too high, lower it (but accept lower SNR). No immediate agent-side change; market feedback.

Bear-Yosher

Intent 802 filled (13th deal). No anchor resting — posted 836 to maintain exactly-one-resting invariant. Deal 74 betExpi

deal 74 betExpiry OR intent 836 fill/expiry OR price adverse OR new binary OR 4h

Summary: Mission executing correctly: 14 settled BinaryBets (11 with Mimic-Ljuba, reliable partnership validated), -$0.36 lifetime PnL, disciplined 'exactly-one-resting-bet' invariant. Wakes w31-w35 show clean recovery from w29b/w30 promise-drop incident (no new duplicates). Focus question: 1 open intent (17m old) is normal order flow awaiting fill/expiry, not stuck.

Bear-yosher's crypto-down conviction is executing correctly with 14 settled deals (11 with Mimic, -$0.36 PnL) and recovers cleanly from w29b/w30 duplicate-fire incident. Risk is platform-level: core SDK's armWatcher promise-drop remains unfixed and could re-trigger the invariant violation.

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop: w29b & w30 fired simultaneously on same intent-fill trigger (06-10 04:09:00), posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets. Not agent reasoning failure — agent correctly detects and repairs invariant violation in w31 (repost). No agent-side misreading.

Sound. Mission-aligned execution: posts crypto-down BinaryBets BELOW strikes, maintains 'exactly one resting bet' invariant via disciplined expiry/repost (w31, w32, w34b, w35). Fires on economic events: deal expiry, price >1.5% adverse move, new binaries on book, own intent resolution. The w29b/w30 duplicate-fire is a core SDK bug, not reasoning failure.

Deal 74 near-expiry (5 min window before 10:17 UTC)

Intent 760 resolution (fill/expiry, ~08:55 UTC, 1h TTL)

11 of 14 settled deals (79%), reliable copy-trader, thesis-aligned (crypto-down conviction mirror)

Takes mispriced binaries; could absorb bear's resting bets if competitive, but currently posting 8 aged unfilled intents (21-40m old) himsel

warming (low fill rate, capacity uncerta

Takes near-decided binaries, but latency-arbitrage focus on fast CEX feed may not align with bear's patient on-chain oracle pricing

None detected. Agent maintains exactly-one-resting-bet invariant and expires/reposts unfilled orders systematically (w31, w32, w34b, w35). The 1 open intent (17m old) is normal order flow — no fill does not indicate missed trade opportunity, just thin book or counterparty unavailable right now.

Fires on own intent resolution (maintains exactly-one-resting-bet invariant)

Fires on ETH/BTC price moves >1.5% (crypto-down thesis edge; adversarial stop-loss)

Fires on new aligned BinaryBet on book (taker leg of mission)

4h fallback (reasonable cadence for patient conviction, not sub-minute churn)

Zero LLM in loop, lightweight price-fetch checks, scalable

No agent-script change needed. The fix is core SDK: patch armWatcher in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js to prevent duplicate fires on the same trigger event (see issues, scope: core).

armWatcher promise-drop causes duplicate wakes

w29b and w30 fired simultaneously (06-10 04:09:00) on the same intent-fill event, posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets and violating 'exactly one resting bet' invariant. Core SDK bug in armWatcher; all agents using armWatcher are at risk. This is the same root cause as LP-Maker offline (919 min, armed=f

Debug and patch armWatcher in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js: ensure fireWake() trigger is consumed atomically so only one wakeLoop iteration fires per trigger event. Verify promise handling does not double-fire on same condition.

Index-Maker

Summary: No change for the third consecutive observed cycle: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes ever, $0 lifetime tokens. The orchestrator has never deployed a wake script for this agent. LP-Maker's recovery (12 active quotes, fleet deals flowing) is irrelevant here — index-maker cannot benefit from a healthier book it

Confirmed no change this cycle. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — not resting, not waiting, never started. Zero intents ever posted means index-taker (its only counterparty, also bootstrap-dead) has zero baskets to audit. The pair is a closed loop of mutual starvation that cannot self-resolve without an orchestrator fix.

wake_script_source=null across all observed cycles; 0 wakes; $0 lifetime token burn; no settled deals indexed; watcher.armed=false with no fallback scheduled — the orchestrator deploy step has never run for this agent

Cannot evaluate — the agent has never executed. No reasoning loop to judge. The absence of a wake script is itself the entire problem.

MISSING: orchestrator has never deployed a wake script — no trigger of any kind exists

Sole designed counterparty — takes SHORT side of index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents after auditing verified source

Also bootstrap-dead (armed=false, pidAli

unmeasurable: agent has never posted an intent, so no taker-side fill was ever possible; index-taker has had no basket to audit across all observed cycles

No wake script exists — wake_script_source=null

No fallback scheduled — nextFallbackMin=null

No armed state — armed=false with no recovery path visible

Deploy the wake script via the orchestrator — this is the only unblocking action; everything else (cadence, book triggers, fallback) is moot until the script exists

Orchestrator has never deployed index-maker's wake script

Three consecutive observer cycles, wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. This is not a transient crash — the deploy pipeline has never wired up this agent. LP-Maker's recovery does not help; the agent cannot reach the book.

Identify why the orchestrator skips index-maker's deploy step (misconfigured agent registry entry, missing CLAUDE.md path, deploy script guard?) and run the deploy; verify armed=true and nextFallbackMin>0 in the next observer cycle

index-maker + index-taker form a mutually-dependent pair that must bootstrap together

index-taker is also armed=false/pidAlive=false/0 wakes. Even if index-maker deploys first and posts a basket, index-taker cannot audit or take it. Both must be deployed in the same orchestrator run.

Fix the deploy for both agents atomically; confirm index-maker posts at least one LONG IndexBasket intent and index-taker's audit path resolves before declaring bootstrap success

Index-Taker

Summary: No change across all observed cycles: wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. This is now a chronic dual-side blackout — index-taker cannot bootstrap without a watcher script, and its sole counterparty (index-maker) remains equally dark. The pair has never traded and the gap is widening relative to the rest o

index-taker has 0 wakes, $0 lifetime spend, and no watcher script deployed — identical state to every prior cycle. Its only counterparty (index-maker) is also armed=false/pidAlive=false. The IndexBasket market does not exist in any operational sense; this is a bootstrap failure on both sides, not a thin-book problem.

wake_script_source=null (watcher never deployed); index-maker armed=false/pidAlive=false (no LONG intents ever posted); settled_deals='not-indexed'; 0 wakes across all cycles observed

Cannot assess — agent has never woken. No reasoning trace exists. The failure is pre-cognitive: the harness never starts the agent.

MISSING: watcher script (wake_script_source=null — nothing registered with harness)

MISSING: index-maker LONG intents to scan (sole counterparty also offline)

Sole producer of LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker would take the SHORT side of

armed=false, pidAlive=false — also fully

none — index-maker has posted 0 IndexBasket intents; no takeable intents have ever existed on-chain for this pair

Script is null — never deployed to harness; agent cannot be armed without it

Even a correct script would find nothing to take until index-maker is also bootstrapped

Deploy the watcher script first (blocking prerequisite); script should poll the indexer for live LONG IndexBasket intents, fire only when at least one exists with sufficient time-to-expiry, and fall back on a patient cadence (e.g. 30-60 min

Watcher script never deployed

wake_script_source=null across every cycle observed. The harness has nothing to arm. This is the primary blocker.

Write and register current.ts for index-taker; mission requires: fetch indexer for LONG IndexBasket intents → audit via audit-custom-deal skill → cross only on ACCEPT

Sole counterparty (index-maker) also dark

index-maker has armed=false/pidAlive=false and 0 wakes — it has never posted a LONG IndexBasket intent. Even a fully bootstrapped index-taker would find an empty book.

Bootstrap index-maker in parallel; both sides of the pair must be live before any deal is possible — treat as a single escalation item, not two separate ones

IndexBasket market chronically dark — now an escalation item

Multiple observer cycles have passed with both index-maker and index-taker at 0 wakes. The rest of the fleet (LP recovered, Vulture 30 deals, Swing/Rebalancer active) is operating; the IndexBasket segment is the only structurally unstarted market. Risk of indefinite neglect.

Escalate: assign an owner to bootstrap both index-maker and index-taker this cycle; the pair cannot self-start

LP-Maker-Matheus

ETH/BTC oracle up 0.56-0.60%; stale/expired quotes needed refresh. New δ with volTerm: ETH 43.2bps, BTC 44.8bps; stocks

quote #780 resolves (~09:55 UTC), oracle breach >20bps, or new fillable intent

armWatcher promise-drop at w44 (06-09T17:19Z): fallbackMs=3600000 should have triggered at ~18:19Z but orchestrator never received the return; armed=false, pidAlive=false confirmed. Last deal #64 at w42 (16:26Z), 0 tokens in 5h, open_intents=0. Not agent logic — wake-script is sound.

quote expiry (~45 min, myIntentIds list)

new fillable network intent matching HOLD set

MISSING: watcher never fires — promise-drop means runWatchLoop is never scheduled by orchestrator

9 fills with LP-Maker pre-crash; primary swap taker, active with 8 open intents now

1 fill, primarily options/binaries not swaps

Tracks own quote expiry by ID — correct trigger for an LP whose main risk is phantom depth from stale quotes

Oracle breach check (±15–50 bps) via belt is well-calibrated for a near-mid quoter

60-min fallback is appropriate cadence for an LP (not sub-minute polling)

canFill guard on HOLD set prevents waking on irrelevant intents

Script is sound but moot — the core armWatcher promise-drop prevents it from ever being scheduled

armWatcher promise-drop kills LP restart

w44 fallbackMs=3600000 was set at 06-09T17:19Z; orchestrator should have re-woken at ~18:19Z but the promise was dropped. Now 931 min offline. Every taker agent dependent on LP-Maker swaps is starved. This is the single highest-leverage fix in the fleet.

armWatcher must confirm the orchestrator acknowledged the scheduled callback; add a heartbeat or explicit ack — if none received within 2 min, surface a hard error rather than silently dropping the fallback.

Expired quote IDs in wake-script will fire immediately on restart

myIntentIds in the w44 script includes IDs 609, 620–631, all expired ~14h ago. On restart these will all resolve as 'expired', firing multiple redundant wakes in quick succession.

On restart, agent should clear the myIntentIds list or check expiry timestamp before looping — or the first wake should just re-quote fresh rather than chasing resolved IDs.

Mimic-Ljuba

Edge floor ≥3pp unmet. One deliberate move per wake rule enforced. No high-edge taker opportunity on board.

stock market open 13:30 UTC OR new ≥3pp taker-edge BinaryBet (90 min fallback)

Summary: Copy-trading discipline working as designed: correctly idle w40–w44 waiting for ≥3pp edge floor, then immediately took high-edge opportunity in w45 (deal #84, 2.95% move ~1.1σ, cost-implied 40% vs expected 12% prob). Watcher armed and alive (fallback 41m, polling 60s cadence). Answer to focus question: Bear's open BinaryBet qualified, was taken in w45. Const

Executing mission correctly: 13 settled deals (12 with Bear-Yosher), zero churn over 47 wakes (avg 53m gap), took w45's opportunity immediately. Realized -$0.74 suggests sample size / market moves (only 5h window, 13 deals), not signal quality — edge discipline is sound.

Bear-Yosher (12/13 deals) posts ≥3pp bets intermittently: deal #83 at w39, then none w40–w44, then w45 opportunity taken immediately. Agent correctly flagged non-qualifying bets; constraint is Bear's taker/writer flow, not market structure.

Sound. Wake logs show quantitative edge discipline: 'cost-implied odds 40% vs expected 12% prob' (w45), 'deep OTM requires +3.3% BTC' (w38, correctly rejected). Correctly skipped thin bets w40–w44 ('edge floor ≥3pp unmet') — no churn, no re-deriving same move. Reasoning is distinct and on-mission.

New ≥3pp taker-edge BinaryBet (core, working — w45 proof)

Stock market opens 13:30 UTC (declared in code, but off-mission: no stock-board logic implemented for copy-trader)

90-min hard fallback (reasonable cadence)

Primary source: 12/13 deals. Posts BinaryBets driven by crypto convictions; mimic-ljuba copies and re-prices.

Secondary: 1 settled deal. Sources binaries, but mission is value vs Polymarket (external ref), not high-edge posting.

online but supply orthogonal to copy-tra

None. w40–w44 correctly scanned and skipped (edge ≥3pp unmet). w45 opportunity taken immediately — no delay, no churn.

Polls for new high-edge binaries at 60s (responsive, not sub-minute churn)

Tracks seenIntentIds to detect truly new bets (no redundant re-scans)

Hard fallback 90 min (patient, matches copy-trader mission cadence)

Baseline seeding on first poll avoids spurious fires

Stock-market-open trigger (13:30 UTC): declared but off-mission. Copy-trader doesn't trade stocks; comment mentions 'sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT board refresh' but no suc

Remove stock-market-open branches (stockWakeTime logic); simplify to: 'new ≥3pp taker-edge binary OR 90-min fallback'. Clearer intent, no behavioral change, reduces maintainability debt.

Off-mission wake trigger in script

Stock-market-open (13:30 UTC) is declared but unexecuted; misleads maintainers about copy-trader's dependencies. Copy-trading BinaryBets doesn't require stock-board polling.

Remove stockWakeTime and related clock logic from wake-script; keep only 'new high-edge binary OR 90-min fallback'

Executing mission correctly: 13 settled deals (12 with Bear-Yosher), zero churn over 47 wakes (avg 53m gap), took w45's opportunity immediately. Realized -$0.74 suggests sample size / market moves (only 5h window, 13 deals), not signal quality — edge discipline is sound.

Momentum-Nikita

Edge threshold (2pp) correctly filters the noise band. All crypto declining together — no asset is breaking out relative

LP-Maker (64 deals, primary swap counterparty) armed=false, pidAlive=false, 930+ min offline. Intent #741 (w9) failed in 1h window, #745 (w10) cancelled 9 min in at signal reversal — neither reached a fill. Vulture-Andrew (28 deals) and Rebalancer-Lior (8 deals) are the only plausible fill counterpa

Crypto pair divergence ≥2pp (BTC/ETH/SSV) from live-captured baseline

US market open 13:30 UTC (adds stocks to full-field ranking)

8h fallback (~16:20 UTC next fire, 455 min from w12)

Primary swap fill counterparty — 64 deals history, prices near oracle mid

Takes mispriced/favorable swaps opportunistically; 28 deals but unpredictable on SSV

DCA swaps could coincidentally cross an SSV intent; 8 deals but mission-driven, not reactive

Baseline captured live from oracle at first poll — no hardcoded price literals, robust to market drift between wakes

US market open 13:30 UTC trigger correctly gates stock inclusion into the full-field ranking (expands opportunity set without always-on polling cost)

8h fallback is patient and appropriate for a momentum strategy that thinks in multi-hour regimes

Zero-LLM watcher, cannot fire on 'book non-empty', correct cadence (60s poll, not sub-second)

Baseline resets each wake session — the divergence threshold is vs start-of-this-watch, not a configured multi-hour lookback. The LLM compensates but the watche

LP-Maker offline 930+ min — armWatcher promise-drop bug starves all swap-posting agents

LP-Maker is armed=false, pidAlive=false. Every swap-posting agent (Momentum, Stacker, Swing, Rebalancer) has near-zero fill odds until this is resolved. Momentum's 1 settled deal in 11 wakes directly traces to this gap.

Fix the armWatcher promise-drop bug in core SDK; restore LP-Maker. Until then, wake LP-Maker manually.

W11 log frames proactive cancel as 'likely expiry' — misleading diagnostic

Intent #745 was posted at 04:50 with an 8h window (expires ~12:50 UTC). W11 at 04:59 says 'likely expiry due to illiquidity' — but 9 minutes elapsed, not 8 hours. The agent correctly cancelled on signal reversal but logged it as expiry. This makes the audit trail ambiguous.

Update CLAUDE.md or the agent's logging prompt to distinguish between 'cancelled on signal reversal' vs 'expired unfilled' — use on-chain intent status to label accurately.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: Agent ALIVE: armed=true, pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=57. Prior: 8 consecutive empty scans (w9–w16) while Option-Writer was offline. This run: w17 fired 1 min ago (fallback-triggered) and again found 'No audited Option intents found' — yet Step-1 reports Option-Writer has a live [custom] intent (8 USDC → 0.24 USDC, ~4m remaining). The intent almost certain

Option-Writer's live intent will expire in ~4 min; Option-Taker's next wake is 57 min away. w17 fired 1 min ago and missed it — either the templateHash doesn't match (0xcd5689c…daf6) or the intent predated this session's seen-set initialization and is permanently invisible. Either way, the deal window closes before the next scan.

wake script uses newMatches(seen, intents, isAuditedOption): any intent present when the watcher process started is added to the initial `seen` set and never fires a wake. Option-Writer's live intent (8 USDC → 0.24 USDC) existed before or during w17's loop init → in seen → invisible for this entire

Sound loop hygiene, wrong filter logic. The agent correctly arms, polls, and avoids sub-minute churn. But 'fire only on NEW intents' solves the wrong problem for an options taker: options have expiries, so an intent posted before watcher startup is equally valid and equally time-sensitive. The agent is disciplined — it's just disciplined about the wrong invariant.

2h fallback (primary trigger for all 17 wakes — no book-triggered wakes observed)

newMatches: a net-new audited option intentId not in seen set

MISSING: scan for existing unexpired audited options on every poll iteration (not just new ones)

sole Option writer on the fleet; uses the same audited custom judge template; just posted a live intent

partially restarted — 1 live intent conf

Option-Writer's live intent (8 USDC → 0.24 USDC, ~4m left at Step-1 time) — w17 fired 1 min ago and did not take it. If templateHash matches 0xcd5689c…daf6, this is a missed take caused by the seen-set blind spot. If templateHash mismatches, the agent cannot audit it regardless — but that failure mode is unverifiable from wake logs alone.

Filters strictly by audited templateHash — no unaudited option risk

Zero-LLM watch loop — no token burn between wakes

newMatches-only: intents present at watcher startup are permanently invisible for the entire session lifetime

No expiry awareness: a 4-min option expiring before the 2h fallback is structurally undeliverable

seen set is never persisted across process restarts — every restart re-blinds all pre-existing intents

Replace newMatches guard with a positive check each poll: scan all open intents for any that (a) match the templateHash AND (b) are not yet settled/expired — fire immediately if any qualify. This collapses the seen-set blind spot and catche

seen-set blind spot: intents at watcher startup never trigger a wake

The watch loop seeds seen on first poll, then only fires on net-new intentIds. Any option posted before the watcher process started — including Option-Writer's current live intent — is silently skipped for the entire session. With a single counterparty and infrequent posts, every missed intent is a

On each poll, run isAuditedOption over all open intents (not just deltas). If any pass and aren't already acted on (track by intentId in a local acted set), fireWake immediately. Remove the seen-based newMatches pattern entirely.

No expiry-aware urgency: 4-min options invisible until 2h fallback

Short-lived options (≤60 min) will always expire before the fallback fires. The agent needs the option's expiry timestamp to either (a) arm a tight deadline wake or (b) skip options with insufficient time to act.

When scanning, check each candidate's expiry field. If expiry - now < actionable_window (e.g. 10 min), skip or fire immediately with urgency flag. This is an agent-level change to the wake script.

templateHash match unverifiable from logs

w17 found 'No audited Option intents found' despite a live Option-Writer intent — could be seen-set blind spot OR a templateHash mismatch (Writer using a different contract version). Wake logs don't distinguish these failure modes.

Add a log line: 'found N open intents, M matched template, K new' — this makes the two failure modes distinguishable in a single wake log line.

Option-Writer-Matheus

No high-conviction move today. Vol too low for options, stock tokens illiquid, portfolio on target.

stock token liquidity returns, vol spike (option intents), or portfolio drift >5% (fallback 30min)

Summary: Recovered from 845-min offline; Engine 1 had a false-alarm malformation scare (w27 ETH call 765 canceled, w28 called it encoding failure) but w29 self-corrected: template encoding confirmed valid, ETH PUT 779 posted (collateral $8, premium $0.24/3%, accept-window ~10:05 UTC). Engine 2 sMSFT rotation stuck — swaps 530/533/764/804 all failed; w31 correctly dia

Intent 779 (8 USDC collateral → 0.24 USDC premium, ETH put, strike $1603.16) is correctly formed — USDC↔USDC cash-settled, template pre-registered, 3% premium at mission floor. This is not another w27 malformation; w29 verified encoding before posting. Option-Taker-Matheus is the natural buyer and this is its first auditable candidate after 8 empty wakes. Engine 2 remains structurally deadlocked: 4 sMSFT swap attempts all expired unfilled, no fleet agent trades belt tokens.

Engine 2: swaps 530, 533, 764, 804 all posted at oracle mid, all expired unfilled — LP-Maker confirmed non-participant in belt tokens (stock sleeve). Engine 1: intent 779 live, counterparty exists (option-taker-matheus) but had 8 consecutive empty wakes; first real candidate now available.

Sound and improving. W28 over-diagnosed a false encoding failure; w29 correctly reversed it, re-verified template, and posted a properly structured PUT. W31 correctly identified the market constraint (LP won't do belt tokens) and stopped churn — discipline over re-posting. The only reasoning gap: w28's panic cancellation of a valid template was corrected within one wake, so no lasting damage, but

ownIntentResolved on intent 804 (sMSFT swap, expires ~09:54 UTC)

6-hour hard fallback for next rebalance / market signal

MISSING: ownIntentResolved on intent 779 (ETH put option, accept-window ~10:05 UTC) — if option-taker accepts 779, agent won't fire until 804 resolves or 6h fal

Natural buyer for Engine 1 cash-settled ETH puts; intent 779 is first auditable candidate after 8 empty wakes

Armed, health ok, scanning — Step-1 conf

Trades belt tokens not supported; confirmed non-participant in sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT swaps

Armed, 12 quotes live — irrelevant for E

One settled swap deal on record; could intersect on stock tokens if mission allows, unconfirmed

DCA into BTC only, no stock-belt overlap

None for Engine 1 — no prior valid option intents existed for agent to take. Engine 2 misses are structural (no belt-token takers in fleet), not agent failures. Watcher blind to 779 fill means agent can't immediately respond if option-taker accepts — measurable only after 779 resolves.

Fires on intent 804 resolution — correct trigger for a patient stock-rotation agent

6h fallback is well-matched to mission cadence (avg gap 78 min, no sub-minute polling)

Zero-LLM, ownIntentResolved is a precise non-spurious condition

Only checks intent 804; intent 779 (option accept-window ~10:05 UTC) is unwatched — a fill by option-taker goes undetected until 804 resolves or 6h fires

Add a parallel ownIntentResolved check for '779' inside runWatchLoop; fire on either 804 or 779 resolving — whichever comes first triggers the next reasoning wake so Engine 1 can post a follow-on option promptly.

Watcher blind to option intent 779 fill

current.ts polls only intent 804; if option-taker-matheus accepts 779, agent learns of fill only when 804 also resolves (~09:54 UTC) or 6h fallback fires — delays Engine 1 follow-on posting by up to 5h 50min

Add ownIntentResolved(belt.tools.readIntent!.run, '779') check alongside 804; call fireWake on either resolving

No belt-token (stock) swap takers in fleet — Engine 2 structurally dead

Four sMSFT swap attempts (530, 533, 764, 804) posted at oracle mid; all expired unfilled. LP-Maker confirmed non-participant. No current fleet agent trades sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT. This is a fleet gap, not agent mispricing.

Onboard a stock-token liquidity provider or extend LP-Maker-Matheus mandate to include belt tokens; until then Engine 2 burns tokens posting intents with zero fill probability

W28 panic-canceled a valid option template

Intent 765 (ETH call) was canceled as 'malformed'; w29 confirmed the template encoding was correct all along — the cancellation was unnecessary and wasted one Engine 1 cycle plus cancel gas

Before canceling a custom intent, re-read the template spec and verify a concrete encoding error exists (wrong leg types, wrong fields) rather than canceling on uncertainty; add a 'dry-run validate' step to Engine 1 before posting

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL position tracking optimally mid-hold. Edge erosion to 3.1% expected per distri

Summary: Pattern holds through LP-Maker recovery: w18–w25 all report 'no mispriced opportunities' even as LP-Maker came back online with 12 active quotes. sAAPL position held at 0.085722 @ $290.79 ($24.93), edge eroded from 3.1% to ~1.5% per distribution convergence. The 'no misprice' signal is now more credible — this is likely LP-Maker pricing fairly vs Polymarket,

LP-Maker's book is live with 12 quotes and polymarket-ljuba is armed and polling every 60s — yet 8 straight wakes report no misprices. Most likely explanation: LP-Maker prices are fair vs Polymarket's implied distribution, so there is genuinely no edge to take. The structural risk is the 2046-min fallback: existing quotes won't re-trigger the watcher, so a mispriced stale quote could sit undetected for ~34h.

2 settled deals both vs LP-Maker-Matheus (swaps); 0 binary/option deals despite 25 wakes. Option-Writer has 13 deals but polymarket-ljuba has taken 0 of them. LP-Maker's 12 quotes present but none flagged mispriced across w18–w25.

Sound reasoning on sAAPL position management (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / horizon Jun12 20:00 UTC are precise and tracked). The no-misprice conclusion is repeated but plausibly correct — LP-Maker pricing fairly is a real outcome. Concern: w25 notes 'sAAPL at per-asset cap ($0.05 room = dust)' and 'weekly binary candidates outside 24h window', which suggests the agent is also capacity-constrai

sAAPL oracle crosses stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75)

blockchain time >= horizonTs (Jun12 20:00 UTC)

new intent of kind binary/option/unknown posted since last poll tick

MISSING: periodic full-book rescan vs Polymarket (existing quotes are invisible to the new-intent trigger after first observation)

Writes ETH/BTC/stock options priced against distribution — exactly what polymarket-ljuba values; has 13 deals, active custom intent live thi

12 active quotes across 7 pairs — mostly swap inventory, but polymarket-ljuba has taken 2 swaps from it; binary/option quotes not confirmed

Posts BinaryBets below market; 15 deals — potential misprice candidates vs Polymarket distribution

Taker-only; posts near-sure-win intents that polymarket-ljuba might compete for rather than complement

armed=true, pidAlive=false, waiting on f

Option-Writer's custom intent (8 USDC → 0.24 USDC, ~4 min left per Step-1 timing) was live; polymarket-ljuba did not take it. This is not a clear miss — option-taker-matheus is the primary designee for that deal type, and the agent may have evaluated and rejected it on Polymarket-distribution grounds. No evidence of a scannable misprice that was passed over; the no-misprice reports are consistent

Fires on new binary/option/unknown intents — correctly reactive to new counterparty supply

60s poll cadence is appropriate for a taker watching for fleeting misprice windows

Stop/forward/horizon exits are precise and state-backed (reads state.json for horizonTs)

New-intent trigger only catches intents posted AFTER the agent last ran — LP-Maker's 12 existing quotes, posted before w25, are now in lastWakeBets and will not

2046-min fallback (~34h) means a stale-but-now-mispriced quote could sit undetected until Jun11 20:00 UTC — far too long for a taker mission

Mission says 'value Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket' but watcher has no Polymarket-rate trigger — it can only react to quote *existence*, not quote *mis

Shorten fallback to 4–6 hours (e.g., FALLBACK_MS = 4 * 3600_000) so the agent runs a full Polymarket-vs-book scan regularly, catching stale misprices from LP-Maker's 12 live quotes that the new-intent trigger can never surface.

2046-min fallback creates a 34h blind spot on existing book quotes

LP-Maker posted 12 quotes; all are now in lastWakeBets so the watcher won't re-fire on them. If any becomes mispriced vs Polymarket's distribution, polymarket-ljuba won't see it until Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback or a new intent posts.

Set FALLBACK_MS = Math.max(..., 4 * 3600_000) with a hard cap of 6h — this ensures a full rescan at least every 4–6h regardless of new-intent flow.

Per-asset cap reached on sAAPL; no new entry room until position closes

w25 explicitly notes '$0.05 room = dust' — polymarket-ljuba cannot add to its primary position. This further narrows the opportunity surface. The agent should weight binary/option scanning more heavily when per-asset cap is hit.

When per-asset cap is reached on the held asset, shorten the intent-scan fallback to 2h to compensate for reduced sAAPL entry signals.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC most-underweight 24/7 leg at -7.4pp. Intent #777 expired. 3h37m until stocks open — DCA into BTC while waiting. No f

intent #831 resolves (fill/expire) OR stocks market open 13:30 UTC

Summary: Prior cycle: #669/#670 (sAAPL/sNVDA) expired unfilled due to LP-Maker 919-min downtime; agent correctly paused and pivoted to BTC DCA during stock market closure. This cycle: posted BTC intent #777 (expired — LP still recovering at 08:53 UTC), immediately re-posted #831 (7 USDC → 0.0001143 BTC) at w21 09:53 UTC with LP-Maker now live. open_intents=0 strongly

Intent #831 (7 USDC → BTC) almost certainly filled — open_intents=0, LP-Maker armed with BTC quotes, agent's own history shows 4/4 BTC fills. The counterparty blocker is resolved. The real story is the -40pp stock underweight that's been locked behind market hours; 13:30 UTC fallback (nextFallbackMin=216) is the correct next gate.

All 3 prior expiries (#669, #670, #777) trace to LP-Maker being offline; 4 of 8 Lior settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus. With LP back, BTC leg is unblocked. Stock leg is structurally gated by NYSE hours — not agent fault.

Sound and on-mission. Correct pivot to BTC-as-24/7-asset during stock closure; logged precise market-open countdown; re-posted immediately after #777 expiry rather than sleeping through the gap. The -40pp stock shortfall is the real DCA priority but correctly deferred — no churn, no re-derivation.

Fallback: 2026-06-10T13:30:00Z stocks market open (nextFallbackMin=216)

4 of 8 Lior settled deals; BTC quotes active now; armed=true, 12 open quotes

Filled 2 Lior deals but not identifiable on roster — external LP or unknown agent

None. Agent is in correct hold state pending stocks open. During the BTC window, LP-Maker was offline (structural — not Lior's miss). No favorable takes were visible on book at w20–w21 per the wake logs.

Dual-trigger: intent #831 resolution OR stocks market open — correct for a DCA agent that has two distinct next actions

60s poll cadence is appropriate for watching a live intent (not rapid-fire polling on empty book)

Intent ID labeled in comment; STOCKS_OPEN timestamp hardcoded cleanly

No re-post branch on expiry: if ownIntentResolved fires as 'expired' and stocks are still 3+ hours away, the agent sleeps until 13:30 UTC with the BTC gap still

Add an expired-vs-filled branch after ownIntentResolved: if the intent expired and stocks are still closed, immediately re-post a fresh BTC slice rather than falling back to the stocks-open deadline — preserves DCA cadence in the 24/7 leg.

BTC re-post gap on expiry

Wake script fires on #831 expiry but the next wake will wait for the stocks fallback (216 min). If LP-Maker fills intermittently, repeated BTC expiries stall the DCA for hours. #777 already expired once under this pattern.

In the ownIntentResolved handler, distinguish fill vs expire: on expire, call fireWake with 'expired — re-post BTC slice' rather than letting the fallback govern the next wake time.

Stacker-Massimo

Summary: Confirmed staged correctly for market open. Prior summary's conclusion holds: LP-Maker offline was the single blocking counterparty; that's now resolved. Pre-market waker re-armed at w25/w26 for epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC), no DCA slice posted since intent 753 expired at ~06:56 UTC (freeing 0.50 USDC back, giving 9.00 USDC free). LP-Maker is back with live

No DCA slice posted this cycle — correctly pre-market (05:54 AM ET at last wake). Natural wake fires at 13:30 UTC (~216 min from now), the fallback at 14:00 UTC (~246 min, nextFallbackMin=246) triggers 30 min later. Natural wake fires first. LP-Maker's live sNVDA quotes (12 USDC → 0.0585 sNVDA) mean the first post-open slice has a ready counterparty — 2/2 prior settled deals were ↔ LP-Maker.

Both settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; LP offline 930+ min last cycle left 0 sNVDA sellers; LP now back and quoting sNVDA, unblocking the next slice

Sound and solving the right problem. w20–w26 all show disciplined pre-market suppression (no on-chain action, correct). w20 correctly canceled stale intent 752 on 1.01% oracle drift and re-posted 753 at same size — price discipline on-mission. No churn.

epoch 1781098200 poll (30 s loop) fires fireWake when nowSec >= MARKET_OPEN_EPOCH_SEC

fallback armWatcher at market-open + 30 min (14:00 UTC)

Sole sNVDA seller; both prior deals settled ↔ LP-Maker; now back with 12 live USDC→sNVDA quotes

armed=true, pidAlive=true, 12 open quote

None. Pre-market hours at all recent wakes; sNVDA swaps correctly suppressed until 13:30 UTC. No measurable miss.

Epoch-pinned trigger (1781098200) fires exactly at 09:30 AM ET open — zero drift

Fallback at open+30 min ensures a retry even if primary poll misfires

No book-watching pre-market — correct, can't act anyway; avoids spurious wakes

No oracle-drift guard inside the watcher: if sNVDA oracle moves >1% between arm and wake, the agent will catch it in-wake, but a watcher-level oracle check woul

None urgent. The watcher is fit-to-mission. Optional: after market open fires, re-arm with a tighter 60–90 min fallback (instead of a fixed +30 min) so repeat DCA slices don't wait 30 min if the first wake posts but the fill takes a second

Single counterparty concentration risk

100% of settled deals and all sNVDA liquidity depend on LP-Maker-Matheus. Any LP outage (as seen last cycle, 930+ min) blocks all DCA progress.

Add Swing-Nikita or any future sNVDA seller as a secondary target in the intent posting logic; or widen the bid tolerance on long LP outages to attract opportunistic sellers.

Swing-Nikita

Summary: Disciplined fade trader correctly resting until US market open (13:30 UTC June 10) to reassess sNVDA +2.57% sell-strength signal. Watcher well-reasoned (fires at market open, hard fallback 15:30 UTC). No deals in 5h, but NOT churning — correctly waiting on zero position + market hours constraints. CRITICAL: sole counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus) offline 919 mi

Agent is sound and patient (3 settled, +$0.23 PnL, 172m avg gap), correctly waiting for market open to reassess sNVDA +2.57% signal. Zero deals in 5h is NOT agent failure — it's structural (zero sNVDA position) + core SDK failure (LP-Maker offline 919 min). No agent-level fix needed; fix core promise-drop bug to restore counterparty.

All 3 prior settled deals routed 100% via LP-Maker-Matheus (offline 919 min, crashed). sNVDA +2.57% signal blocked by zero position + market hours (closed until 13:30 UTC). SSV intent 0x289 (w11) expired unfilled; market liquidity too thin.

Sound and on-mission. Fades dislocations one slice per wake (172m avg gap). Recognizes 1.5% threshold, respects churn guard (w12 no-repost-until-expiry), applies playbook rules (w13 'no tiny unfillable reposts'). NOT re-deriving the same move — wakes are spaced, each observes fresh market state. Correctly waiting for market open; not stuck.

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (reassess sNVDA +2.57% signal)

Hard fallback 15:30 UTC (~7h, market close)

100% of 3 prior settled deals; natural swap counterparty for fade trader.

OFFLINE 919 min (crashed, core armWatche

sNVDA +2.57% signal awaiting market open (13:30 UTC) to reassess — correct waiting, not a miss yet. SSV intent 0x289 (w11) expired unfilled; market liquidity constraint, not agent signal quality.

Fires at market open (13:30 UTC), when sNVDA signal can be reassessed — actionable trigger tied to mission, not liquidity proxy

Correct cadence (172m avg gap, patient one-slice-per-wake discipline; 7h fallback)

Zero-LLM, simple time check; no book-pinging or spurious reruns

Hard fallback (15:30 UTC) ensures agent doesn't ghost if market-open event is missed

None. Watcher is well-reasoned for current constraints. Agent should reassess at market open: deploy USDC into sNVDA fades, or hold for other opportunities.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 919 min — core SDK promise-drop bug

Swing-nikita's sole counterparty (100% of settled deals) crashed 919 min ago. Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop uncaught. Blocks all swaps, even when signal presents.

Resolve armWatcher promise-drop in core/sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js; restart LP-Maker-Matheus.

Vulture-Andrew

Intent 801 sMSFT buy expired. No rival on buy side so 1.8% margin. 807/808 degraded to 0.89/0.93% but above 0.5% cancel

16 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781086213; next poll 60s

Summary: Portfolio floor crisis (sAAPL 0.39%, sNVDA 8.05%) correctly prioritizes rebalance over baiting. Posted 8 open intents (rebalance buys 762/763 + baiting quota) at oracle-fair to oracle+0.5% — legitimately attractive terms, not mispriced. All 8 unfilled 20–40 min because primary counterparty LP-Maker offline 919 min (core armWatcher promise-drop bug per Step 1

Vulture's 8 open intents (21–40 min old, USDC↔crypto swaps) are **not mispriced** — they're posted at attractive oracle-fair to oracle+0.5% terms and correctly prioritize portfolio floor risk. All 8 are unfilled solely because **LP-Maker offline 919 min** (core SDK armWatcher promise-drop bug). Vulture accounts for 46% of LP-Maker's 28 settled deals; without LP, it has no reliable counterparty for rebalance fills. Baiting mission disciplined paused until rebalance resolves. No agent-level fix — wait for core recovery.

LP-Maker-Matheus 13/28 deals (46% of Vulture's counterparties), now offline 919 min. Rebalance intents 762/763 posted at oracle-fair (w40) and oracle+0.5% concession (w42) — fair market terms, not signal failure. Zero fills in 20–40 min window due to LP offline, not edge quality.

Sound. Vulture correctly identified portfolio floor risk (sAAPL 0.39%, sNVDA 8.05% of portfolio, both below $8 floor) and deprioritized edge-hunting (baiting mission) in favor of rebalance as single highest-value move. Adaptive reposting (canceling stale intents, refreshing with fair terms) shows disciplined risk mgmt. Not re-deriving the same move; w37–w44 show progression: oracle+0.5% → oracle-m

rebalance intent 762/763 resolved (filled/expired/cancelled)

pre-expiry: 5 min before soonest intent expiry

new takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges on 30–60s adaptive cadence)

MISSING: explicit 'when LP-Maker comes back online' trigger (relies on pre-expiry + fallback, acceptable since LP will fill any live orders)

Primary market maker for rebalance swaps; 13/28 settled deals (46%) routed through LP. Rebalance terms (oracle-fair to +0.5%) are attractive

OFFLINE 919 min (core armWatcher promise

Also does DCA swaps (rebalance buys), but specialized for USDC→portfolio mix (not general swaps). Could technically fill Vulture's intents,

Awake (last_wake_min_ago not specified i

Posts LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA), not general swaps. No overlap with Vulture's USDC↔sAAPL/sNVDA rebalance intents.

None explicitly. Vulture is correctly waiting: rebalance fills are the blocker (not a miss, a necessary hold). No takeable edges ≥1% logged in recent wakes (w37–w44 show scan-edges runs every 30–60s, zero new edges fired). Baiting intents quota (part of the 8 open) are defensibly paused until portfolio health restored — not a miss, disciplined.

Monitors rebalance intent resolution (critical for current portfolio floor crisis) — correct priority.

Adaptive cadence (30–60s scan-edges, not spammy), tightens under load — good token efficiency for a patient bot.

Pre-expiry trigger (5 min before soonest expiry) — smart intent lifecycle mgmt.

2h hard fallback — reasonable patience for waiting on LP recovery.

Fires on new edge ≥1% (core mission-aligned), but only if fresh (seenEdgeIds dedup) — avoids churn.

Uses Date.now() in setTimeout/loop context (skill docs say this can throw in script runtime; note as future risk even though it's running now).

No explicit signal for 'when LP-Maker recovers' (e.g., pinging LP's health endpoint) — relies on pre-expiry + fallback. Acceptable, since live orders auto-fill

Add optional 30s health check for LP-Maker (single RPC read to see if watcher.pidAlive=true) between pre-expiry cadence and fallback, so Vulture wakes promptly if LP recovers before rebalance expiry. Single highest-value move given LP-starv

armWatcher promise-drop uncaught (LP-Maker offline 919 min)

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed 919 min ago (armed=false, pidAlive=false) due to core SDK armWatcher promise-drop bug. Vulture depends on LP for 46% of settled deals; rebalance intents 762/763 stuck unfilled due to LP absence, starving all swap-dependent agents (Step 1 notes 11/16 recent settled deals = 69

Core SDK: fix armWatcher promise-drop in wake-watch.js (handle uncaught promise rejections, restart agent loop cleanly).

Negative realized PnL (-$2.21 on 28 deals)

Vulture has lost $2.21 (−$0.08/deal avg). Given portfolio floor crisis (rebalance priority, baiting paused) and LP starvation preventing fills, some PnL loss is inevitable, but worth tracking. Not an immediate blocker, but watch for repeat if LP recovery delays further.

None now (PnL loss is market/constraint-driven, not signal failure). Monitor post-LP-recovery to confirm profitability resumes.

LP BACK, FLEET THAWING

~70+ settled — Vulture-Andrew 30 deals, Rebalancer-Lior 8, LP-Maker hub of all recent fills; dominant template

~14 settled — Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba exclusive pair

low; Option-Taker seen-set bug has blocked intent 779 for 9+ consecutive wakes

1 open in book (0x5F79…CB6D, 4m left); settled count unverified

ACTIVE — 8+ deals this cycle, primary hub restored after 930-min outage

ACTIVE — 2 recent deals (intent #831, 7 USDC → 0.0001143 BTC, 49m left)

1 deal this cycle; resting until market open 13:30 UTC

STAGED for market open 13:30 UTC; LP now quoting sNVDA

ACTIVE — 14 settled, reliable pair; both armed and live

BLOCKED — seen-set bug blinds Option-Taker to live intent 779 (8 USDC → 0.24 USD

armWatcher promise-drop at LP-Maker-Matheus w44 (06-09T17:19Z) silently dropped the 3600000ms fallback

LP-Maker offline 930+ min, starving the entire taker fleet: Vulture-Andrew (46% of its counterparties), Swing-Nikita (10

LP-Maker last deal #64 at w42 (16:26Z), last wake w44 (17:19Z), then armed=false/pidAlive=false until recovery this cycle; 12 active quotes and 8+ recent deals confirm restoration

LP-Maker-Matheus recovery (12 active quotes across 7 pairs: ETH, BTC, SSV, sMSFT, sNVDA, sAAPL, USDC)

Immediate multi-agent thaw: Vulture-Andrew 8+ deals, Rebalancer-Lior 2 deals, Swing-Nikita 1 deal, 0xBd6a and 0xb591 ext

Recent deals: Vulture-Andrew ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus ×8, Swing-Nikita ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus ×1, Rebalancer-Lior ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus ×2, LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ 0xBd6a…9863 ×1

Option-Taker newMatches() seeds its initial seen-set from all currently-live intents at process start

Any intent alive when the watcher process launched is permanently invisible for that process lifetime; Option-Writer's i

Option-Taker w9–w17: 9 consecutive 'No audited Option intents found' despite intent 779 confirmed live in Step-1 data; Option-Taker armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=45

Orchestrator deploy step never run for Index-Maker and Index-Taker

Entire index market has been dark for all observed cycles: 0 wakes, 0 deals, 0 token burn; the gap widens relative to th

Both: wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes — confirmed chronic across three consecutive observer cycles

armWatcher promise-drop (same core bug as LP-Maker) caused Bear-Yosher w29b+w30 to fire simultaneously on the same inten

Duplicate BinaryBet intents posted; agent self-corrected at w31 (invariant repair), but the same unhandled-rejection roo

w29b & w30 both triggered at 04:09:00 UTC; Mimic-Ljuba matched only one; Bear-Yosher w31 detected and repaired the invariant violation

LP-Maker confirmed non-participant in belt/stock tokens (sMSFT, sNVDA, sAAPL)

Option-Writer Engine 2 stock sleeve has no counterparty; swaps 530, 533, 764, 804 all expired unfilled; Polymarket-Ljuba

Current LP-Maker open book: ETH, BTC, SSV, USDC pairs only — no sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL quotes; 4 consecutive Engine-2 swap expiries

Option-Taker: seen-set bug permanently blinds it to any intent live at watcher startup

newMatches() initializes the seen-set from all current intents at process start, making them invisible for the entire process lifetime. Intent 779 (Option-Writer's live ETH PUT, 8 USDC → 0.24 USDC, ~45m remaining) has been in the initial seen-set since before w17 — 9 consecutive empty scans, deal cannot form. Each time Option-Taker's process restarts, any option already posted will be silently skipped.

Option-Taker w9–w17: 0 matches; intent 779 confirmed live in Step-1 data; Option-Taker armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=45

Persist matched intent IDs across wakes; initialize seen-set from persisted matches only — OR filter by intent creation timestamp vs watcher process start time so only newly-posted intents can wake the agent

Index-Maker + Index-Taker: chronic bootstrap failure — entire market dark for all observed cycles

Both agents have wake_script_source=null and have never woken, never traded, never burned a token. This has been true across every cycle this observer has run. The index market is a complete dead zone while the rest of the fleet is active.

Both agents: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens — confirmed chronic across 3+ cycles

Run orchestrator deploy step for both index-maker and index-taker immediately; verify wake_script_source is non-null before next cycle; these agents need their wake scripts authored and deployed

armWatcher promise-drop is a recurring fleet-level reliability risk with cascade potential

The same unhandled promise rejection in armWatcher has caused: (1) LP-Maker-Matheus 930+ min offline, collapsing fleet conversion rate fleet-wide; (2) Bear-Yosher duplicate-intent fire (w29b+w30 simultaneous). LP-Maker's outage alone froze Vulture-Andrew, Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo, Rebalancer-Lior, Arb-Hunter-Tom simultaneously — a single promise-drop cascades to hub-dependent agents instantly.

LP-Maker: fallbackMs=3600000 swallowed at w44 06-09T17:19Z, 930+ min offline. Bear-Yosher: w29b+w30 simultaneous fire at 04:09:00 UTC on same trigger.

Add top-level unhandled-rejection handler in armWatcher; add watchdog that detects process-alive-but-armed=false and re-arms the fallback timer; add integration test for simultaneous-trigger scenario

Stock-token market gap: no counterparty for sMSFT, sNVDA, sAAPL swaps

LP-Maker quotes only ETH/BTC/SSV/USDC pairs. Option-Writer Engine 2's 4 stock-sleeve swaps (530/533/764/804) all expired unfilled. Polymarket-Ljuba's arbitrage loop for stock tokens is also unserved. This is a structural fleet gap, not an agent failure.

LP-Maker current book: 7 pairs, none are sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL; Option-Writer Engine 2: 4 consecutive swap expiries for stock sleeve

Extend LP-Maker to quote belt/stock tokens, or recruit a second market maker for sMSFT/sNVDA/sAAPL; without this, Option-Writer Engine 2 and Polymarket-Ljuba's stock arbitrage have no fill path

LP-Maker recovery produced immediate multi-agent thaw — hub dependency confirmed but working

Within one cycle of LP-Maker returning with 12 quotes across 7 pairs, 11+ deals settled across Vulture-Andrew (×8), Rebalancer-Lior (×2), Swing-Nikita (×1), plus external wallets. Fleet conversion rebounded to 10.5%. The hub concentration is a risk (single point of failure) but also the fastest liquidity lever in the fleet.

89 total settled, 16 of the most recent deals involve LP-Maker-Matheus; Vulture-Andrew's 30 lifetime deals include 13 vs LP-Maker (43%)

No immediate action; armWatcher fix is the preventive; consider recruiting a second LP as redundancy given hub concentration

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba binary pair operating correctly and self-healing

14 settled BinaryBets, Mimic-Ljuba correctly filtering ≥3pp edge (took deal #84 at 2.95% move, ~1.1σ). w29b/w30 duplicate-intent incident was self-corrected by w31 invariant repair. Both agents armed and live.

Bear-Yosher: 14 settled, 1 open intent (57m left, Bear 4 USDC → 2.67 USDC), armed=true/nextFallbackMin=194. Mimic-Ljuba: armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=85.

No agent-side action; armWatcher fix prevents future simultaneous-fire duplicates

Fix armWatcher promise-drop: add unhandled-rejection handler + process-alive-but-armed=false watchdog with auto-rearm — single highest-leverage fix; caused LP-Maker 930+ min outage and Bear-Yosher duplicate intents; another drop could re-collapse fleet conversion

Fix newMatches() seen-set seeding: persist matched IDs across wakes and initialize from persistence only — Option-Taker has been blind to live Option-Writer intents for 9+ consecutive wakes; intent 779 (~45m remaining) is the current casualty

Deploy wake scripts for index-maker and index-taker — wake_script_source=null for both; entire index market dark for all observed cycles; no other action unblocks them

Add a stock-token market maker for sMSFT, sNVDA, sAAPL — LP-Maker only quotes ETH/BTC/SSV/USDC; Option-Writer Engine 2 (4 consecutive expiries) and Polymarket-Ljuba stock arbitrage both have zero fill path without it

Major improvement vs last run: LP-Maker-Matheus confirmed fully recovered (armed=true, pidAlive=true, 12 open quotes across 7 pairs, 8 recent deals), unblocking the entire taker-side fleet that was starved for 930+ min; Swing-Nikita already filled one deal, Options book partially active with Writer'

LP-Maker back with 12 active quotes — conversion rate check: 88 settled / 830 posted = 10.6%, up from near-zero while LP was down; Vulture-Andrew dominant at 30 deals, $26.06/5h burn

Option-Writer [custom] intent live (8 USDC → 0.24 USDC, 4m left) — Engine 1 partially restarted; Option-Taker has been scanning 8 consecutive empty wakes, this is the first auditable candidate

Index-Maker + Index-Taker both still armed=false / pidAlive=false / 0 wakes — bootstrap failure persists across every observed cycle, now a chronic gap

Rebalancer-Lior open intent (7 USDC → 0.0001145 BTC) expires in ~2 min — LP-Maker's BTC quotes are live; fill window is narrow

Vulture-Andrew pidAlive=false but armed=true / nextFallbackMin=107 — ALIVE (waiting), not crashed; 9 open intents unmatched vs newly-live LP book

Did the settled Vulture-Andrew ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom deal come from a binary edge or a swap edge — and now that LP-Maker's book is live again (12 quotes), has Arb-Hunter's binary-scan rate changed or is fill rate still 1.8% (2/111)?

The open BinaryBet (4 USDC → 2.666666 USDC, 14m left) — is this Bear's current 'exactly-one' invariant bet, and does Mimic-Ljuba's matching open (6 USDC → 4 USDC, 3m left) represent a correct copy-trade fill or a near-expiry mismatch?

Still armed=false / pidAlive=false / 0 wakes — has anything changed in bootstrap status this cycle, or is the orchestrator still failing to deploy the wake script?

Still armed=false / pidAlive=false / 0 wakes — same bootstrap blocker as Index-Maker; confirm no change and whether the pair being dark is now a chronic escalation item.

LP-Maker is confirmed live with 12 active quotes — which pairs are filling (recent deals show BTC, sMSFT, sNVDA hits) and is pricing at oracle-fair levels, or are any quotes sitting unfilled past their rational window suggesting mispricing?

Open bet (6 USDC → 4 USDC, 3m left) — is this copying Bear-Yosher's current open BinaryBet as intended, and does the payout ratio (4/6 = 66.7%) reflect a valid re-priced copy or an edge-floor miss?

Last wake 38 min ago, next fallback 445 min — with LP-Maker now live and US markets open (current time ~09:20 UTC, post-open), has the field produced a leadership separation signal worth acting on, or is the 445-min sleep still justified by

Option-Writer has a live [custom] intent (8 USDC → 0.24 USDC, 4m left) — is this an auditable ETH/BTC option that Option-Taker's scan should catch this wake (next fallback 62 min), or will it expire before the next scheduled scan?

The [custom] intent (8 USDC → 0.24 USDC, 4m left) — is this Engine 1 correctly posting an option premium (seller receives 0.24 USDC for 8 USDC collateral), or is this another malformed intent like w27's canceled ETH call?

With LP-Maker's book now live (12 quotes) and Option-Writer's [custom] intent active, has any mispriced binary or option appeared vs Polymarket's distribution — or is the 'no misprices' repeat pattern continuing even with a fuller book?

Open intent (7 USDC → 0.0001145 BTC) expires in ~2 min with LP-Maker now live and BTC quotes on book — did this get filled, and has Lior posted a fresh DCA slice now that the counterparty blocker is resolved?

LP-Maker is back with live sNVDA quotes (12 USDC → 0.0585 sNVDA) — has Stacker posted a new 0.50 USDC DCA slice this cycle, and is the 251-min fallback going to fire before or after Stacker's next natural wake?

Swing-Nikita ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus just settled — what was the fade signal that triggered this deal (sNVDA was the +2.57% sell candidate last summary), and has Swing posted a follow-up slice or reset its 'one slice per wake' invariant?

9 open intents on book (rebalance buys + baiting quota), $26.06/5h burn, pidAlive=false but armed=true with 107-min fallback (ALIVE) — how many of these 9 intents are being filled by the now-live LP-Maker, and is the SSV→USDC pricing tight

LP-Maker confirmed live — verify Stacker-Massimo and Rebalancer-Lior wake next cycle and post fresh DCA/rebalance slices; their prior fallbacks were set for LP recovery, which has now happened.

Option-Taker-Matheus: Option-Writer's [custom] intent (8 USDC → 0.24 USDC) expires in ~4 min — next wake is 62 min out, meaning Taker will miss this if it can't catch same-cycle. Check whether wake-sc

Index-Maker + Index-Taker: wake script deployment failure persists across every observed cycle (0 wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=false both agents) — this is now chronic, needs orchestrator-level escala

Option-Writer-Matheus: validate the [custom] intent structure (8 USDC → 0.24 USDC) is not a repeat of w27's malformed-and-canceled ETH call; Engine 1 resumption depends on the next intent being well-f

Vulture-Andrew burn ($26.06/5h, highest in fleet) — with LP-Maker live, check fill rate on Vulture's 9 open intents; if LP's quotes overlap, several should fill this cycle, justifying the burn.