Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary bet within 30-min take window with CEX taker in-money. No swap edge >=10bps with fundable matching intent. Bot

Summary: Agent remains disciplined and mission-locked through eight consecutive wakes (w69–w76, last 6h): refusing unedged swaps, waiting for binary bets ≤30min with CEX latency confirmation. Zero deals in this window despite sound quantitative reasoning (all 0 swap edges ≥10bps fundable with USDC/0.002461 ETH/2 SSV; no binary bets with CEX taker in-money). Portfolio

Tom's reasoning is quantitative and on-mission: refusing unedged swaps (none ≥10bps fundable), waiting for binary bets ≤30min settlement with CEX confirmation. The 6-hour no-deal streak is market structure (LP-Maker-Matheus offline, no qualifying binary bets, SSV edge has no counterparty), not agent error. 2 deals lifetime (both Vulture-Andrew) reflect LP-dependent thin book. Watcher well-designed: fires on fresh intents >706 or 30-min fallback.

w75–w76: SSV +45bps edge exists but 'no book intent'; last 7 wakes (w70–w76) all show 'no binary latency take' and '0 swap edges ≥10bps'. LP-Maker-Matheus offline 439m (primary swap liquidity). No new intents posted above HIGH_WATER (706) since w72.

Sound and on-mission. Tom quantifies edge thresholds (≥10bps), verifies CEX latency (latencyTake=true), checks asset availability (USDC/ETH/SSV only), guards on feed freshness. Seven consecutive no-fill wakes show disciplined refusal, not missed opportunities. No turnover in reasoning — each wake re-scans book consistently. Watcher is well-designed: fires on fresh intents >706 or 30-min fallback,

New intent > HIGH_WATER (706): Check fresh binary bets or swaps for latency edge

30-min fallback: Periodic check for bets approaching settlement

2 settled deals; Vulture posts sharp swaps Tom can snipe. Now orphaned (79% LP-dependent).

Posts binary bets (BTC/ETH down). Could provide latency-arbitrable taker side.

ok — health=ok, posting frequency unknow

Copy-trades binary bets, re-prices to oracle. Can provide arb opportunities.

Primary swap liquidity (64 deals). Now offline 439m.

offline — missed 60m respawn fallback; a

None. No binary bets ≤30min with CEX taker confirmation posted. No swap edges ≥10bps fundable with holdings. SSV +45bps edge (w75–w76) has no book intent — market structure issue, not agent miss.

Fires on new intents >HIGH_WATER (706): Hunts fresh binary bets for latency edge

30-min fallback cadence matches settlement window (bets ≤30min target)

HIGH_WATER baseline focuses on recent intents (fresher feeds, less stale book)

Zero-LLM, deterministic: armWatcher + runWatchLoop lightweight and reliable

Fallback guarantee: wakes every 30 min even if no new intents post

HIGH_WATER static (706, since w72): If book thins and no intents post >706, only wakes on fallback. May miss old intents re-priced near settlement.

If thin market persists (few new intents >706), add a periodic sweep of intents ≤706 within 10 min of settlement to catch last-minute repricing. Current design is sound for normal liquidity; low priority.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 439m: armWatcher promise-drop bug

Primary swap liquidity source crashed w44 17:19 UTC. Scheduled 60-min respawn fallback at 18:19 UTC never armed (platform bug: watcher.nextFallbackMin=0 instead of queuing). Starves Tom and all LP-dependent agents.

Restart LP-Maker-Matheus immediately. Debug and patch armWatcher promise-drop to prevent silent fallback failures.

Binary bet supply dry (zero ≤30min bets with CEX taker confirmation)

Recent wakes (w70–w76) show zero qualifying binary bets. Bear-Yosher and Mimic-Ljuba are online but either not posting or posting bets outside Tom's 30-min window + CEX confirmation criteria.

Verify Bear-Yosher and Mimic-Ljuba are actively posting. If they are, consider whether 30-min window is too strict (extend to 45–60 min?) or CEX feed requirement filters out available liquidity.

Bear-Yosher

Intent 414 filled (deal 74 BTC<$63,500). Watcher fired. No resting bear bet → must post per mission. No aligned binary (

intent 704 fill/expiry OR deal 74 betExpiry OR ETH >$1,662 OR new aligned binary ≥1.5% margin OR 4h

Summary: Intent 414 filled in w19 (deal 74: BTC BELOW $63,500 at oracle $63,342). Agent correctly pivoted to new mission requirement: post resting bear bet. Current blocker is structural, not agent fault—no aligned binaries in book to reference-price against (LP-Maker-Matheus offline 439m). Watcher armed and ready to fire when book recovers. Wake script well-reasoned

Bear-yosher is on-mission and correctly patient through intent 414 fill (w19, deal 74). It needs an aligned binary in the book to reference-price a new post; none exist because LP is offline. This is fleet/core fault (maker starved), not agent. Wake script should dynamically track current open intents instead of hardcoded IDs.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 439m (platform armWatcher bug, scheduled 60m fallback missed at 18:19 UTC). Book collapsed: 3 live intents, 75/706 settled (10.6%). No aligned BinaryBets available for bear-yosher to reference. w19 logs 'No aligned binary' and halts post-mission until book recovers.

Sound. w13–w17 patient gating (no aligned binary → no action). w18 correctly flagged readIntent bug. w19 correctly executed fill of deal 74 and recognized new post-mission requirement. Not churning; solving the right problem within its control.

Deal 74 betExpiry (BTC BELOW $63,500, epoch 1781086608)

Primary liquidity provider; would provide reference prices and book depth for bear's posts. Currently OFFLINE (armWatcher bug, 439m down).

Copy-trades binaries; has already dealt with bear on BinaryBet (recent settled deal). Can provide counterparty if it posts aligned bets.

Settled swaps with bear before. Contrarian portfolio; unlikely to take bearish binaries. Currently OFFLINE (same armWatcher bug, 423m down).

Takes mispriced bets; could take bear's post if it's misaligned enough. But vulture is now orphaned (79% LP-dependent, LP offline).

None. Agent cannot post a new bet without aligned binaries in book to reference-price against. Cannot take binaries that don't exist. This is unmeasurable until LP wakes or other agents post — not an agent miss.

Correctly watches own intent lifecycle (fill/expiry) — core trigger for new posts

Tracks deal expiry (deal 74) — relevant for settlement and position unwind

Monitors ETH price for stop-loss (>+1.5%) — fits bear thesis and risk management

Scans for new aligned binaries — correct wake trigger for action

Has 4h fallback — patient cadence, avoids token churn on thin book

Hardcoded intent ID (INTENT_704_ID = '704') instead of dynamically fetching agent's current open intents. When intent 414 filled (w19), script still watches sta

readIntent call (line ~checking intent status) is where w18's bug manifested (malformed .intent property); should be more defensive or use a safer query.

Replace hardcoded INTENT_704_ID with dynamic fetch of agent's current open intents each cycle (e.g., `belt.tools.readAgentIntents?.run()`). This prevents script staleness when intents fill and correctly tracks new posts.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 439m — book liquidity collapsed

Fleet-starving incident. LP was supposed to respawn at 18:19 UTC (60m fallback) but armWatcher timer promise-drop bug prevented re-arming. Bear-yosher and 12 other agents starved of reference prices and counterparties. 81% of recent flow was LP or Vulture (LP-dependent).

Debug and fix platform armWatcher promise-drop bug (core/SDK). Re-arm LP-Maker-Matheus watcher immediately once bug is patched.

readIntent returns malformed data (w18)

Bear-yosher w18 logs: readIntent returns ReadIntentOutput with no .intent property. Agent re-fired immediately instead of sleeping. Transient or recurring?

Verify readIntent response schema; add defensive checks in wake scripts that call it. If transient, mark resolved; if recurring, prioritize intent encoding fix.

Wake script hardcodes intent IDs instead of dynamic tracking

Script watches INTENT_704_ID ('704') and DEAL_74_BET_EXPIRY_SEC (1781086608). But w19 shows agent is working with intent 414 (now filled). Script becomes stale when intents fill; new posts aren't tracked.

Fetch agent's current open intents dynamically each cycle (belt.tools.readAgentIntents). Remove hardcoded IDs; watch whatever intents exist at wake time.

Index-Maker

Summary: Unchanged: Index-Maker remains undeployed since genesis (0 wakes, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, no fallback scheduled). Wake-script source is null—initialization never occurred. This is a distinct failure mode from the armWatcher crash bug that downed LP-Maker and Option-Writer: those were deployed but crashed mid-execution. Index-Maker's watcher was

Never deployed (0 wakes lifetime, armed=false, pidAlive=false). Platform initialization failure blocked watcher arming. Distinct from LP-Maker/Option-Writer armWatcher crash—this one never reached execution at all. Mutual blocker with Index-Taker; no alternative IndexBasket counterparties in fleet.

watcher.armed=false + pidAlive=false + wake_script_source=null since genesis. LP-Maker/Option-Writer show armed=true (deployed, then crashed); Index-Maker shows armed never set. Initialization did not reach watcher-arming phase.

N/A—agent never invoked. No wake-script to read.

MISSING: watcher not armed; initialization failed before any trigger could be configured

Only counterparty; also undeployed with identical initialization failure pattern (0 wakes, armed=false, pidAlive=false).

Unmeasurable—agent never awake. If deployed, would post LONG IndexBasket intents for Index-Taker to take; no alternative market participants exist for this intent type.

Script source null—not retrieved. Suggests initialization failure before script load.

Debug platform deployment: Index-Maker initialization did not reach watcher-arming phase. Check: agent registration, watcher instantiation, initial arm() call. Likely distinct from armWatcher promise-drop bug (LP-Maker, Option-Writer were a

Deployment/initialization blocker — watcher never armed

Index-Maker watcher.armed=false + pidAlive=false + wake_script_source=null since genesis. Unlike LP-Maker and Option-Writer (deployed, crashed on armWatcher fallback), this agent never reached execution—initialization stopped before watcher arm(). Root: platform agent startup (not per-agent code).

Debug agent initialization flow: registration → watcher instantiation → initial arm(). Check if Index-Taker has identical issue (likely). Separate from armWatcher promise-drop fix.

Mutual blocker with Index-Taker — IndexBasket market starved

Index-Maker and Index-Taker both undeployed (0 wakes each, armed=false). No other agent in fleet trades IndexBasket intents. If Index-Maker were running, it would post LONG baskets; only Index-Taker could take them. Market has zero liquidity.

Unblock both Index-Maker and Index-Taker (same platform init fix). No per-agent workaround available; IndexBasket market depends entirely on this pair.

Index-Taker

Summary: Still undeployed since genesis (0 wakes, no change vs last cycle). Watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false); no wake script deployed (wake_script_source=null). Root cause unchanged: **platform initialization blocker** — index-maker (sole required counterparty) also undeployed. Mutual-blocker pair; neither can function without the other. Fail-closed audit d

Zero wakes lifetime (no progress: 0 → 0). Watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false). No wake script deployed. Sole counterparty index-maker also dead. Platform initialization failure (mutual-blocker pair), not agent-level logic.

index-maker undeployed since genesis (0 wakes, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false). Mutual-blocker pair: index-maker must post LONG intents for index-taker to take SHORT side. Neither woke; neither has wake script. Platform never bootstrapped the pair.

Unexecuted—no wake script deployed, agent never woken. Mission statement (fetch verified source, audit, fail-closed accept-only) is sound design, but no runtime data to judge execution.

MISSING: no wake script deployed (wake_script_source=null)

index-maker publishes LONG IndexBasket; index-taker takes SHORT. Designed pair, no alternatives.

undeployed (0 wakes, watcher.armed=false

unmeasurable: watcher offline, no wake script, no book visibility

wake_script_source=null — no script deployed

platform: resolve mutual-blocker pair initialization. Deploy index-maker and index-taker together at genesis, or add bootstrap fallback so one initializes while awaiting its counterparty.

Mutual-blocker pair initialization failure

index-maker (0 wakes, watcher dead) and index-taker (0 wakes, watcher dead) are a mutual-blocker pair. Neither deployed since genesis. No bootstrap logic to handle counterparty-dependent agents.

Platform: implement mutual-blocker pair initialization — deploy both together at genesis, or use bootstrap fallback to allow one to initialize while awaiting the other, or use a market-factory pattern to batch-create paired agents.

Wake script not deployed

index-taker has no wake script (wake_script_source=null), watcher is dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false), no fallback scheduled (nextFallbackMin=null).

Once initialization blocker is resolved: deploy wake script and arm watcher for both index-maker and index-taker.

Zero wakes lifetime (no progress: 0 → 0). Watcher dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false). No wake script deployed. Sole counterparty index-maker also dead. Platform initialization failure (mutual-blocker pair), not agent-level logic.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Summary: Still offline 441m after w44 crash (17:19 UTC). The scheduled 60-minute respawn fallback (18:19 UTC) never armed—nextFallbackMin=null, armWatcher promise-drop bug confirmed. Wake script itself is disciplined (quote expiry monitoring, oracle breach checks, fillable intent triggers) but the platform timer infrastructure is broken. No recovery until the core ar

Offline 441m; scheduled 60-min fallback never armed due to armWatcher timer promise-drop (core SDK bug). Pre-crash reasoning excellent. Fleet starved: LP-Maker supplied 13 of 16 recent deals (81% of liquidity), now Vulture-Andrew/Rebalancer-Lior/Stacker-Massimo are orphaned.

Platform armWatcher timer promise-drop: fallback scheduled 18:19 UTC never fired (nextFallbackMin=null). Same bug affects Option-Writer-Matheus (423m offline). Not an agent logic defect—the respawn infrastructure itself failed. Promise returned by armWatcher() is dropped before the timer registers.

Pre-crash reasoning (w38–w44) was disciplined and sound: monitoring quote expiry (~45-min cycle), rebalancing short positions (599 ETH, 583 sAAPL), avoiding churn-driven repricing. w44 correctly identified 'expired phantom quotes = loss of fillable book' as liquidity risk. Agent was solving the right problem for its mission when crash occurred.

Quote expiry monitoring (~45-min cycle, appropriate for depth refresh)

MISSING: Fallback timer (60 min) — promised but never armed due to core armWatcher bug

Primary taker; 22 of 28 deals from LP-Maker (79% dependent on this maker).

online but orphaned (no liquidity source

DCA buyer; 6 of 8 deals from LP-Maker (75% dependent). Holding unfilled rebalance intents.

Systematic buyer; 2 of 2 deals from LP-Maker (100% dependent).

Unmeasurable: agent offline, no book visibility.

Monitors own quote expiry (45-min cycle, appropriate for LP depth refresh)

Detects oracle breaches (±15–50 bps) to trigger repricing

Checks for new fillable network intents (responsive to market flow)

Fallback: 60-min safety net (sensible guardrail)

No script defect. Issue is platform-level: the fallback timer is never armed by the broken armWatcher infrastructure.

No agent-level change. Script is sound. Blocker: fix core armWatcher promise-drop in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js, then restart this agent.

armWatcher timer promise-drop: fallback never fires

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 441m; scheduled 60-min fallback (18:19 UTC w44) never armed (nextFallbackMin=null). Same bug affects Option-Writer-Matheus (423m offline). The promise from armWatcher() is dropped before the timer registers.

Audit sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js::armWatcher()—ensure the fallback timer promise is awaited and registered in the event loop before the function returns. Add integration test: schedule a fallback, verify it fires after timeout.

Critical liquidity hub offline; fleet starved

LP-Maker was involved in 13 of 16 recent settled deals (81% liquidity supply). Now offline 441m; Vulture-Andrew (22/28 deals, 79% dependent), Rebalancer-Lior (6/8, 75% dependent), Stacker-Massimo (2/2, 100% dependent) are orphaned with unfilled intents. Book conversion collapsed: 75 settled of 706 p

Once armWatcher fix lands, restart LP-Maker-Matheus. If respawn still blocked, manually trigger wake or reset watcher state to restore market liquidity.

Offline 441m; scheduled 60-min fallback never armed due to armWatcher timer promise-drop (core SDK bug). Pre-crash reasoning excellent. Fleet starved: LP-Maker supplied 13 of 16 recent deals (81% of liquidity), now Vulture-Andrew/Rebalancer-Lior/Stacker-Massimo are orphaned.

Mimic-Ljuba

No ≥3pp taker edge available. Deal #74 loss realized. One deliberate move + edge floor rules enforced. Holding $95.62 US

new BinaryBet appears on board (or 60 min fallback)

Summary: Mimic-ljuba disciplined on edge-floor (3pp minimum): correctly refused BinaryBet #414 for 8 consecutive wakes (−25 to −35pp edge, below floor), then took deal #74 when price drift revealed 30pp edge (w24). Deal #74 exited w25 with −$4.38 realized loss. Watcher well-reasoned and armed (12-min fallback remaining); last wake 236m ago is normal rest, not crashed

Mimic-ljuba correctly enforced its 3pp edge floor across 8 refusals of #414 and opportunistically took #74 when drift revealed 30pp edge; deal exited at −$4.38 loss. Mission discipline sound, watcher armed and patient (60-min fallback). Real blocker: LP offline (439m) starved the open book from 706→3 intents; no new high-edge BinaryBets to copy since w24. When LP recovers, monitor whether subsequent deal outcomes justify the repricing logic (−$0.74 lifetime realized suggests either valid variance or a calculation flaw).

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 439m eliminated the primary source of BinaryBets (per fleet focus). Open book collapsed to 3 live intents; mimic-ljuba saw only #414 (mispriced −25 to −35pp) for 8 consecutive wakes, rightly refused. Deal #74 (w24) appeared via price drift, not new posting; w25 onward shows

Sound and on-mission. Wakes w17–w23 (per prior summary) + w24–w25 (current) show consistent logic: (1) enforce 3pp floor (refused −25 to −35pp edge on #414 eight times), (2) take high-edge bets when they appear (took #74 at 30pp edge w24), (3) settle losses and hold cash when no edge available (w25 exited #74, holding $95.62). Not churn—each decision cited a calculated edge or a rule breach. The −

60-minute fallback (last fired: w25, ~236m ago; armed with 12-min fallback remaining)

Two-conviction BTC/ETH down bet-taker; has live deal with mimic-ljuba (#3, BTC above $65k per w19 logs). Convictions overlap on directional

Bet valuer against Polymarket implied distribution. Settled deal with mimic-ljuba shows prior edge alignment. Both hunt mispriced binaries.

Primary source of liquidity and new BinaryBets (when online). Currently offline 439m, blocking deal flow.

stuck (offline, missed 60m respawn fallb

Latency arbitrage on fast CEX vs slow oracle; could post mispriced binaries that mimic-ljuba's oracle repricing could exploit.

None detected. Watcher armed and fallback alive (12-min remaining); unmeasurable how many BinaryBets posted in last 236m (watcher may have seen and correctly refused them per edge floor). Last recorded wake w25 found no ≥3pp edge. Expect next wake within ~12 min; will report then.

Fires on 'new BinaryBet appears' (core signal for copy-trader mission)

60-min fallback is patient, not sub-minute polling (correctly matched to a DCA-like copy-trader rhythm)

Zero-LLM, deterministic newMatches() to filter BinaryBets; no hallucination risk

Fallback armed and alive (12-min remaining per watcher.nextFallbackMin); will auto-wake even if no new bets

No change needed. The watcher is well-reasoned for this mission. When LP-Maker-Matheus returns online and the book refills, the watcher will fire correctly. No improvements warranted until the book structure changes.

Realized loss of −$0.74 on 3 deals; repricing logic may be miscalibrated

Deal #74 (w24) showed 30pp edge at entry (taker odds 40% cost-implied vs 10% fair), but realized −$4.38 loss in portfolio by w25. Either: (a) valid variance on edge bets (30pp edge ≠ guaranteed profit), or (b) the oracle repricing logic overstates edge. Sample size is tiny (3 deals, −0.74 lifetime r

After LP-Maker-Matheus comes online and mimic-ljuba settles 5+ new deals, audit the repricing math: compare edge calculated (taker odds vs oracle mid) vs realized PnL on settled bets. If repricing bug exists, patch the oracle feed or edge calculation in the wake script.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 439m blocks new BinaryBet flow; mimic-ljuba starved

LP is the primary liquidity source for BinaryBets. With it offline, mimic-ljuba saw only one bet (#414) on the open book for 230+ min, and that bet was mispriced (−25 to −35pp edge, below floor). Fleet-wide: 81% of recent deal flow was through LP (dead) or Vulture-Andrew (79% LP-dependent). Mimic-lj

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus. Platform issue: armWatcher timer promise-drop bug caused scheduled 60m respawn fallback at 18:19 UTC to never arm. Fix the SDK's armWatcher promise chaining; this bug also froze Option-Writer-Matheus (identical root cause).

Momentum-Nikita

Both lookbacks show 0.3pp gap — far below 2pp minimum to act with conviction. Market is chopping inside noise band. USDC

Summary: Wakes w2–w8 idled correctly due to genuine price action (all gaps <1pp, threshold 3%), but NOT because the momentum signal works—getPrices() returns {} and the watcher fires on 60m fallback + market-open timer (13:30 UTC), not price-momentum triggers. Agent stores price snapshots in state, masking the non-functional stub. One settled deal (Intent #28, w1 BTC

Correct inaction w2–w8 (genuine boring market), but achieved by fallback timer, not momentum detection. getPrices() stub returns empty every call; watcher is time-based (market open 13:30 UTC), not signal-based (3% threshold). One deal settled; LP-Maker offline eliminates current counterparty. Mission 'hunt strongest mover' requires threshold-triggered wake; this agent cannot fire on momentum.

getPrices() returns {} on every call (line: 'return {};'). Watcher fires on 60m fallback + market-open time, never on price threshold. The 3% threshold logic exists in snapshot.ts (computing gaps from stored prices) but there is no real-time signal to trigger a wake. Agent wakes, computes, idles—but

Sound: agent correctly computes momentum gaps from stored snapshots (w2–w8: 0.3pp, 0.3pp, <1pp, etc.) and correctly rejects trades when below 3% threshold. Unsound: the threshold should *trigger* a wake, not filter a wake-in-progress. Agent is solving 'should I trade given this wakeup?' correctly but the wakeup should have been 'momentum crossed', not 'market open at 13:30 UTC'. Backwards for a mo

60m fallback (repeats w1, w2, w3, … suggesting 60m cadence)

Market-open time 13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 (scheduled; will fire ~13.4h after w8)

MISSING: real-time signal when BTC/ETH/SSV >3% move vs baseline (getPrices() is non-functional stub, returns {})

primary liquidity source for momentum swaps; Intent #28 (w1 BTC) was the one settled deal

OFFLINE 439m, missed 60m respawn fallbac

can cross momentum swaps at sharp prices (79% LP-dependent, 22/28 deals were LP-sourced); could trade with momentum-nikita if LP comes back

ok (awake) but starved without LP liquid

latency arb on CEX (fast feed vs slow oracle); no directional momentum play

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to real-time momentum signal (getPrices() stub). If actual >3% moves occurred w2–w8 (against baseline BTC 61714, ETH 1641, SSV 1.98), agent could not detect them on its own—only on 60m fallback. Current LP-Maker offline also eliminates counterparty: no liquidity available even if momentum cleared.

14h fallback (≈13.4h until market open) respects hourly-thinking cadence, no sub-minute churn

Stores price snapshots (T2–T7) in state to enable gap calculation without on-chain calls

Fallback exists (does not rely on signal alone)

getPrices() is a non-functional stub (returns {} every call; RPC call fetches blockNumber, which has no price info, then silently fails and returns empty)

Comment admits 'full oracle reading is complex'—this is deferred, leaving agent signal-blind

Watcher fires on scheduler (market open 13:30 UTC), not on momentum event (3% threshold). For a momentum agent, this is inverted: should wake ON signal, fallbac

No threshold check in the watcher loop itself (only in snapshot.ts post-wake); momentum signal is not a real-time trigger

Implement getPrices() to fetch live oracle prices (e.g., Chainlink or on-chain pool TWAP), compute {BTC, ETH, SSV} deltas vs BASELINE, and return a bool or event-fire when any >3% breach detected. Restructure watcher: await (signal breach O

getPrices() is non-functional stub

Function fetches eth_blockNumber (not a price feed), catches silently, returns {} every time. Line 'For now, just return empty to let fallback handle the wake' admits signal is deferred. Agent relies on stored price snapshots in state, not real-time oracle.

Implement getPrices() to decode live oracle prices: call chainlink oracle or read pool TWAP (on-chain call via RPC), return {BTC: number, ETH: number, SSV: number}. Watcher should call it in loop; return true if any gap >3%, false otherwise. Fire wake on true, not on time.

Watcher is time-driven, not signal-driven

Fallback fires every 60m + market-open hardcoded. For a momentum agent, this inverts cadence: agent should wake when momentum *happens*, with time-based fallback as safety net, not vice versa. Current 'fire on market open' is a guess that volatility rises then; not a measured signal.

Structure watcher as: `while (!breachDetected && now < deadline) { const prices = getPrices(); if (prices && anyGap > 3%) { fireWake('momentum breach'); break; } await sleep(30s); }`. This way agent wakes immediately on >3% move, falls back to market-open if signal never fires.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline starves counterparty

One settled deal: Intent #28 (w1 BTC swap, -0.8 USD). LP-Maker offline 439m (root cause: armWatcher timer promise-drop). No alternative maker: Vulture-Andrew is 79% LP-dependent. Momentum-Nikita correctly idles w2–w8 because market is boring, but has zero counterparty if momentum clears.

[core] Restore LP-Maker-Matheus (debug armWatcher timer promise-drop, re-deploy). [fleet] Momentum-Nikita could post Intent on book as fallback (not just taker-first) during LP starvation, but requires CLAUDE.md design change.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: Still in a waiting state: all 10 wakes since last run (182m latest at 21:38 06-09) report zero audited intents. Watcher remains armed, well-reasoned, next fallback fires in ~53m. Agent is healthy and correctly idle — root cause unchanged: sole counterparty option-writer-matheus offline 423m (armWatcher promise-drop bug), blocking ALL option supply. When opti

Agent is executing perfectly — waiting for supply that doesn't exist. All 10 wakes scanned the book, found zero audited options (correct: option-writer is the only writer in the fleet, and it's offline). Agent is healthy; the market is starved. No issue with option-taker itself.

option-writer-matheus offline 423m due to armWatcher crash (missed 18:19 UTC fallback respawn). Zero audited options posted to book in 423m (all 10 wakes confirm). No alternative Option writers in fleet; option-taker has exactly one counterparty.

Sound and fit-to-mission. Correctly filters for audited template hash (selectivity requirement met). Waits patiently with 2h fallback — no sub-minute polling churn. Not re-deriving the same move; each wake is a clean scan for new intents. Problem is market supply, not agent reasoning.

New audited Option intent posted (templateHash match)

2h fallback (fires in ~53m if no new options)

Sole writer of audited options in the fleet; perfectly aligned mission

OFFLINE 423m (armWatcher crash, fallback

None. Zero audited options on the book to miss. Watcher sees all intents (no blind spot).

Filters for audited template hash — mission-critical selectivity

2h fallback is patient; prevents starvation if counterparty offline longer

newMatches pattern cleanly detects new intents vs. baseline (no false fires)

None — watcher is well-engineered for this mission. Only action: when option-writer respawns, verify option-taker takes within one wake-cycle to confirm the machinery works end-to-end.

Option-Writer-Matheus offline 423m; armWatcher fallback promise-drop bug

Option-writer crashed at 17:19 UTC w44 (06-09). Scheduled 60m respawn fallback at 18:19 UTC never armed — same bug as LP-Maker-Matheus (439m offline). Option-writer is the fleet's only source of audited options. Absence starves option-taker entirely (mission becomes impossible).

Fix armWatcher promise-drop in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js. Verify fallback actually arms and fires; validate option-writer respawns and writes new options at next cycle.

Agent is executing perfectly — waiting for supply that doesn't exist. All 10 wakes scanned the book, found zero audited options (correct: option-writer is the only writer in the fleet, and it's offline). Agent is healthy; the market is starved. No issue with option-taker itself.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Summary: Platform armWatcher SDK bug crashed agent 425m ago (~19:00 UTC w26). Wake script was well-reasoned (19:50 UTC market-close signal, 23:00 UTC hard fallback), but armWatcher promise-drop prevented watcher from arming—process died, neither trigger fired. Market-close finalization (w26→w27) never executed; rotation swaps 530/533 expired unfilled. Identical bug o

Offline 425m due to core armWatcher timer promise-drop bug (same as LP-Maker-Matheus down 439m). Scheduled market-close finalization never fired. Fix is SDK `wake-watch.js`, not agent logic.

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false; w26 script called armWatcher({fallbackMs}) for 19:50 UTC + 23:00 UTC fallback but neither fired. Identical failure signature as LP-Maker-Matheus. Platform bug, not pricing/counterparty issue.

Wake script is well-reasoned for mission: time-based trigger (19:50 UTC) correct for market-close rotation finalization; 23:00 UTC hard fallback provides safety; no order polling (Engine 1 paused, no open intents); zero-LLM deterministic. Sound design. Failure is platform, not agent logic.

19:50 UTC market-close signal (finalize rotation)

MISSING: armWatcher actually arming background timer (promise-drop bug)

Buys audited options; this agent writes them when Engine 1 active

online (180m waiting, zero audited optio

Primary LP for rotation swaps 530/533 (needed fills)

OFFLINE 439m (same armWatcher bug; starv

Market-close finalization (19:50 UTC w26→w27) never fired; rotation intents 530/533 expired unfilled at ~17:40 UTC w25. Portfolio rebalance incomplete (worst-2 stocks held, entry swaps expired). Would have executed if LP-Maker had been online and watcher had armed.

Time-based trigger (19:50 UTC) correct decisiveness point for market-close rotation

Hard fallback (23:00 UTC) provides safety net

No order polling—correct, Engine 1 paused, no open intents to monitor

No agent change. Fix: core SDK `armWatcher` in `wake-watch.js`—timer not being armed. Promise resolves but fallback timer never registered; watcher.armed stays false, process exits without scheduling next wake.

armWatcher timer promise-drop bug—watcher.armed=false, no fallback fires

W26 script called armWatcher({fallbackMs}) for 23:00 UTC fallback. Neither 19:50 UTC primary nor 23:00 UTC fallback fired. Identical failure: LP-Maker-Matheus (offline 439m). Root: armWatcher promise resolves but doesn't register fallback timer in background.

SDK: Check Promise chain in wake-watch.js armWatcher—ensure fallback timer is actually scheduled before function returns. Likely missing await or callback is dropped in promise chain.

Rotation intents 530/533 expired; portfolio unbalanced

W23–24 posted 3 swaps; intent 528 (sMSFT exit) filled by LP, but 530/533 (sNVDA/sAAPL entry) expired w25 when LP went offline. Rebalance incomplete. W26 finalization was supposed to reassess and re-post, but agent crashed before 19:50 UTC signal.

Post rotation swaps at market open (06-10 or 06-11) once LP-Maker-Matheus recovers. Holdings will drift until then.

Offline 425m due to core armWatcher timer promise-drop bug (same as LP-Maker-Matheus down 439m). Scheduled market-close finalization never fired. Fix is SDK `wake-watch.js`, not agent logic.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: Still correctly in monitor-and-wait mode after sAAPL swaps #583/#601 expired targeting LP-Maker (now offline 439m). Holding sAAPL at 25% equity cap ($24.99), watcher armed for Jun10 16:00 UTC horizon and new book opportunities. Recent wakes w9–w14 found no misprices; agent not churning, patiently holding. Edge (5.17%) sound if Polymarket prices unchanged; co

Agent correctly sized (25% cap), well-armed watcher (horizon + opportunity triggers), not burning tokens. The expired swaps and silence since are not agent failure — LP-Maker going offline is fleet/core infrastructure. No activity needed from this agent until horizon Jun10 16:00 UTC or new misprices emerge.

Primary counterparty LP-Maker offline 439m (outside agent control). Secondary counterparty Option-Writer-Matheus offline 423m. Swaps #583/#601 (4.18%/5.17% edges, legitimate) posted w7–w8, expired unfilled due to LP unavailability, not misprice or agent error. Current state: 0 open intents, agent wa

Sound reasoning, solving the right problem. Agent correctly posts only edges ≥3%, respects 25% per-asset cap (stopped adding sAAPL once cap hit), and waits patiently rather than churning. Watcher is well-reasoned for mission: fires on (a) horizon approach with 5-min buffer, (b) new swap edge ≥3%, (c) fallback at Jun10 18:00 UTC. No re-posting panic or token waste.

Horizon approach within 5 min of Jun10 16:00 UTC

New swap with edge ≥3% detected in book.json

TakeableCount > 0 (new BinaryBet/Option on book)

Primary swap counterparty; offline 439m, intents #583/#601 expired unfilled

OFFLINE 439m (armWatcher promise-drop bu

Would be BinaryBet/Option counterparty; currently offline, blocks deals

Settled 1 BinaryBet deal w/ this agent; available for low-volume bets

Active (28 deals), but picker-off strategy; may post mispriced bets that ljuba can take

None detected. Wakes w9–w14 all report 'no mispriced opportunities on book.' Watcher checks book.json every 30s for edge ≥3% or takeableCount>0. If book.json includes live Polymarket comparison data, this is accurate. If book.json is blind to Polymarket (stale or on-chain-only), the agent is blind to misprices — unmeasurable without inspecting book.json feed.

Horizon-based expiry logic: wakes at 5-min buffer, prevents locked-in position at expiry

Fallback at Jun10 18:00 UTC ensures cleanup even if 5-min warning misfires

Book polling every 30s is patient, not sub-minute churning

Edge threshold (≥3%) filters to legitimate opportunities, not noise

STOP and FORWARD constants declared but never checked; dead code or undocumented purpose

Watcher checks book.bestSwap.edge ≥0.03, but source of edge (vs Polymarket) not visible in script — depends on book.json including real-time Polymarket comparis

Remove STOP (277.34) and FORWARD (303.75) constants as dead code. If they're portfolio bounds, move to agent state config, not wake script. Separately, verify book.json includes live Polymarket price/edge data; if not, watcher is blind to m

Dead code: unused price constants

Wake script declares STOP (277.34) and FORWARD (303.75) but never references them. These appear to be price bounds, but agent is a Polymarket valuation trader, not price-target trader. Constants serve no purpose in the watcher.

Remove STOP and FORWARD constants from wake-script.ts. If portfolio price bounds are needed, move to agent state config or CLAUDE.md, not hardcoded in watcher.

Watcher depends on book.json Polymarket coverage

Watcher fires on book.bestSwap.edge ≥0.03 and takeableCount>0, but the source of edge/comparison (vs Polymarket prices) is not visible in wake script. If book.json is on-chain-only or lacks Polymarket data, the watcher fires on new intents, not true misprices, defeating agent mission.

Verify book.json feeder includes live Polymarket comparison. If not, either (a) add Polymarket data to book.json, or (b) move Polymarket fetch into agent wake phase and remove the watcher's book dependency.

Rebalancer-Lior

All favorable opportunities gated by market hours. Must wait for stocks market to open at 13:30 UTC before trading stock

intents #669/670 resolve (fill/expire), or stocks reopen 13:30 UTC

Summary: Rebalancer-Lior is executing disciplined DCA (posted intents #669/#670 at 19:55 UTC for $7 slices on sAAPL/sNVDA, quantified gaps -15pp/-35pp) with correct market-hours discipline. Its intents are now expired/unfilled: LP-Maker-Matheus (75% of prior 8 deals) went offline 439m ago. No reliable alternative maker exists—other agents (vulture-andrew, swing-nikit

Sound DCA reasoning and execution. Intents #669/#670 expired unfilled because LP-Maker offline and no other agent takes fair-value swaps. Bottleneck is structural (core/platform), not agent logic—agent will correctly re-post at market open but will repeat until LP-Maker recovers.

6 of 8 settled deals were with LP-Maker-Matheus (now offline 439m). Other agents take mispriced/stretched assets, not oracle-mid fair-value DCA. Intents #669/#670 posted 19:55 UTC expired without fill; market has no deep, patient, fair-value maker to absorb them.

Sound. Mission is quantified DCA toward portfolio targets. Recent wakes show correct discipline: w12 posts when stocks market opens (~28% sAAPL target), w13–w17 skip outside hours with stated rationale, w18 takes favorable intent before posting own, w19 posts respecting market constraints. Quantified, not re-deriving. Solving the right problem.

Intents #669/#670 resolve (filled or expire after ~60 min)

Stocks market reopens 13:30 UTC (fallback for next rebalance opportunity)

MISSING: Immediate re-post upon expiry detection (currently waits for scheduled fallback, incurs 12h+ overnight slippage on stale underweight target)

Deep maker, took 6 of 8 deals. But offline 439m, missed respawn fallback.

Takes 'clearly-mispriced' swaps; rebalancer posts at oracle mid (fair-value), not attractive.

Fades dislocations (stretched assets); rebalancer targets neutral rebalance, no edge.

Converts USDC→sNVDA; only sNVDA leg of pair. Also 100% LP-dependent per Step 1.

yes (ok health, but unreliable if LP off

Unknown, 2 of 8 rebalancer deals. Could be manual taker or off-book.

Intents #669/#670 should have filled with a deep maker at posted prices. If 0xBd6a…9863 is an active on-book agent and still accepts fair-value swaps, it could fill; otherwise none detectable in current roster.

Clear label: 'intents #669/#670 resolve or stocks reopen 13:30 UTC'

Fallback targets next DCA window (stocks market open—correct for mission)

Poll every 30s adequate for detecting 60-min expiry within acceptable latency

Zero-LLM, zero-token cost, respects market-hours constraint

No immediate action on expiry: fires wake and waits for next scheduled window (~12-17h), incurs slippage on market moves overnight

Detect intent expiry and immediately post replacement slice in same wake cycle, rather than waiting for fallback. Reduces stale-underweight drift. Requires conditional re-post logic but fits DCA mission.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 439m, missed 60m respawn fallback (armWatcher bug)

Platform promise-drop bug prevented watcher.armed from triggering at 18:19 UTC. LP-Maker is sole source of rebalancer's deal flow (75% of settled deals). Its absence starves intents #669/#670 and orphans all LP-dependent agents.

Fix armWatcher timer promise-drop. Root cause and fix scope in Step 1 focusAreas.

No backup fair-value maker post–LP-offline

Edge-seeking agents (vulture-andrew 28 deals, swing-nikita 3 deals) won't fill DCA at oracle mid. Index-Maker undeployed. Stacker-Massimo 100% LP-dependent. Rebalancer faces structural liquidity drought.

Deploy Index-Maker to provide fair-value liquidity on-book, OR restore LP-Maker. Without either, rebalancer DCA intents will expire unfilled on every wake.

Sound DCA reasoning and execution. Intents #669/#670 expired unfilled because LP-Maker offline and no other agent takes fair-value swaps. Bottleneck is structural (core/platform), not agent logic—agent will correctly re-post at market open but will repeat until LP-Maker recovers.

Stacker-Massimo

Summary: Agent ALIVE and correctly paused on counterparty starvation (all 2 settled deals via LP-Maker-Matheus, now 439m offline). Rationally shifted from continuous DCA (w11–w16, refreshing oracle-tracking bids) to a scheduled daily market-open handoff (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10). Posted 1 open DCA intent + a binary bet on sNVDA UP (w18, creative hedge while waiting for

Agent is correctly idle, not broken. Watcher armed (pidAlive=true, fallback 783 min) and scheduled for market-open tomorrow. All 2 deals were LP-Maker; no alternative makers exist. If LP respawns by 13:30 UTC, handoff executes normally; if not, the fleet's 100% DCA dependency on dead maker surfaces tomorrow.

2 settled deals, both 'Swap settled ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus'. LP-Maker offline 439m (w44 17:19 UTC crash). No alternative makers in open book; Swing-Nikita and Vulture-Andrew are also LP-dependent.

Sound. Agent recognized LP offline (w16 paused active refresh cycle, no on-chain action) and pivoted to a scheduled daily market-open trigger instead of burning tokens on wasted refreshes. Posted binary bet on sNVDA UP (w18) as a creative hedge—expressing conviction while waiting. This is disciplined, not churn.

Time-based: 09:30 AM ET (13:30 UTC) market open on 2026-06-10

Fallback: 16 hours (deadline ~05:30 UTC 2026-06-11)

MISSING: order-book sensing (agent blind to whether LP respawned or alternatives appeared overnight)

Only maker for USDC→sNVDA swaps; 100% of deals.

Picks mispriced swaps, but 79% LP-dependent (22 of 28 deals). If it posts competitive bait, could fill this agent.

ALIVE but starved; likely waiting for LP

Fade dislocations via swaps, but 1 deal lifetime — ultra-low activity.

ALIVE (3 deals, health ok) but not a rel

Unmeasurable: watcher is time-based only (no RPC), blind to order book. Cannot detect if alternative makers post or LP respawns until 13:30 UTC fires. If LP remains offline at market-open, the 1 open intent (0.50 USDC DCA slice) will fail to fill.

Time-based trigger (13:30 UTC) fits patient DCA mission perfectly — no sub-minute churn, daily planning cadence

Fallback 16h (deadline ~05:30 UTC 2026-06-11) gives LP-Maker ample respawn window; if it respawns, agent executes normally

Zero LLM, zero RPC polling of order book — agent correctly doesn't waste tokens checking a dead market overnight

Simple, deterministic: fire on clock or deadline. Cannot fail on 'book non-empty' trap

Inefficient: polls every 60s for ~13 hours (783 total) before firing. Should sleep/wake once at deadline (60s poll on a 13h wait = wasted CPU + log spam).

Replace 60s polling loop with a single sleep-until-deadline before market-open check. E.g., `setTimeout(() => fireWake(...), msUntilOpen)` followed by fallback timer. Keeps the sound mission logic, drops the idle-wake spam.

No fallback if LP doesn't respawn by 13:30 UTC

Open intent (1 remaining, 0.50 USDC) will sit unfilled at 13:30 UTC if LP-Maker stays offline. Agent has no sensing of 'no counterparties' or logic to cancel/pivot.

At market-open (w19), check if any live makers exist (via RPC or prior settled counterparties). If none, cancel open intent and log 'starved' state for manual intervention.

Fleet 100% dependent on LP-Maker for DCA flows

Stacker-Massimo, Rebalancer-Lior, Vulture-Andrew (combined 36 deals) all 75–100% LP-dependent. LP-Maker's crash (439m, armWatcher bug) orphaned 3 agents simultaneously. No alternative sNVDA/swap makers in service.

Deploy Index-Maker (undeployed since genesis, 0 wakes lifetime). Its LONG IndexBasket intent + sNVDA component would provide maker diversity. Unblock Index-Maker/Index-Taker mutual-blocker pair (core initialization failure).

Swing-Nikita

Summary: Sound fade discipline, time-driven watcher (market open 13:30 UTC June 10). sNVDA +2.56% sell signal is real (>1.5% threshold) and will fire. However, all 3 settled deals routed through dead LP-Maker-Matheus (439m offline), and only alternative swap-taker (Vulture-Andrew) is 79% LP-dependent and starved. Lacks execution plan if LP-Maker offline persists past

Swing-nikita's fade logic and sNVDA +2.56% signal (real, >1.5% threshold) will fire at market open 13:30 UTC; watcher is armed. But execution is blocked: LP-Maker-Matheus offline (439m, 100% of swing-nikita's settled deals), and the only active alternative (Vulture-Andrew, 28 deals) is itself orphaned (79% LP-dependent). After market open wakes, agent lacks conditional plan if LP-Maker remains unreachable—needs post-to-Vulture or pivot-to-next-dislocation logic.

All 3 settled deals via LP-Maker-Matheus (offline 439m, armWatcher bug). Only alternative swap-taker is Vulture-Andrew (79% LP-dependent, 22 of 28 deals also via same dead LP). sNVDA signal is real but no execution path; dislocation window closes in 1–2h post-open, but watcher fallback is 15h.

Sound. Correctly identified double-block on sNVDA (markets closed + zero position), recognized thin SSV book as sub-fillable and avoided reposting (w13, enforcement of 'no tiny unfillable' rule), switched to time-driven watcher to avoid false triggers. Reasoning is disciplined and threshold-aware. However, does not encode fallback conditional if LP-Maker offline persists, or tighter re-check caden

US market open 13:30 UTC June 10 (sNVDA +2.56% sell-strength signal check)

15h fallback (currently armed, ~23:30 UTC June 10)

MISSING: 1–2h re-check loop after market open fires (dislocation windows fade fast; 15h fallback is too long)

MISSING: Conditional 'if LP-Maker offline post-open, attempt post to Vulture-Andrew or pivot to next dislocation'

Offline 439m (armWatcher timer bug), counterparty for all 3 swing-nikita deals. No recovery signal visible.

Active swap-taker (28 deals, picks off mispriced intents). Only alternative maker. But 79% LP-dependent; also starved waiting for rebalance

Posts DCA swap intents (6 of 8 deals via LP-Maker). Already blocked; will not help swing-nikita.

Unmeasurable—watcher blind to live book. Pattern suggests correctly patient in thin book (SSV w13 refusal to repost). However, post-market-open dislocation re-entry window (1–2h) will be lost: 15h fallback won't fire until late evening, and if LP-Maker stays offline, Vulture-Andrew is the only option—but watcher doesn't encode 'post if LP down' logic.

Time-driven (market open 13:30 UTC) avoids false triggers on thin-book event noise

Fallback of 15h is patient, zero-LLM, avoids sub-minute spam

Label is explicit about signal name and blocking constraint (double-blocked)

One-shot 13:30 UTC fire, then 15h silence. Post-market-open re-check cadence missing. Dislocation windows close in 1–2h; agent misses re-entry and recovery wind

No conditional for LP-Maker failure: doesn't encode 'if counterparty offline, post to Vulture-Andrew' or 'if Vulture slow, pivot to next dislocation'.

Watcher is set-and-forget; should tighten fallback to 2–3h post-market-open (until filled or signal invalid), then extend to 15h.

Add tighter post-market-open loop: after 13:30 UTC fires, re-check sNVDA fill and alternative dislocations every 2h (until signal resolves or filled). Encode fallback: 'if sNVDA unfilled and LP-Maker offline, post to Vulture-Andrew with 2h

No execution plan if LP-Maker offline at market open

All 3 prior deals routed via LP-Maker-Matheus (offline 439m). sNVDA +2.56% signal is real (>1.5%) and will fire at 13:30 UTC. Watcher lacks conditional for if LP-Maker is still unreachable post-open. Only alternative (Vulture-Andrew, 28 deals) is 79% LP-dependent and starved waiting for rebalance in

Add conditional to wake-script or mission: After market-open wake fires, check LP-Maker health. If offline: encode 'post sNVDA sell to Vulture-Andrew with 2h wait; if unfilled, find next biggest dislocation and post slice.' If LP-Maker online: execute sNVDA sale as planned. Decision tree replaces se

Post-market-open re-check cadence too sparse

After 13:30 UTC wake fires, next fallback is 15h (~23:30 UTC). Dislocation windows are 1–2h ephemeral; in a recovering market, the +2.56% sNVDA sell signal may fade or become profitable within first hour. Agent misses re-entry correction window.

Tighten fallback: After market-open fire at 13:30, set next fallback to 2h (15:30 UTC). If filled or signal invalid, stop. If still valid, re-check at 4h (17:30 UTC). Then extend to 15h post-market-close. Keeps agent responsive during liquid hours without spamming.

LP-Maker offline 439m blocks entire swap hub

LP-Maker-Matheus offline since ~17:19 UTC w44 (armWatcher timer promise-drop bug). Involved in 13 of 16 recent settled deals. All 3 swing-nikita deals via LP-Maker. Orphans: Vulture-Andrew (79% LP-dep, 22 of 28 deals), Rebalancer-Lior (75%, 6 of 8), Stacker-Massimo (100%, 2 of 2). Option-Writer-Math

Platform p0: Fix armWatcher timer promise-drop bug (affects LP-Maker and Option-Writer). Restart LP-Maker. If restart fails, deploy backup LP-Maker to restore minimum swap liquidity. Debug why 60m fallback timer at 18:19 UTC never armed.

Vulture-Andrew

No edges clear 1% gate. Rebalance unconditional at mid — canceling would worsen crisis. Trust at-mid fills and watcher r

5 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781052829; next poll 166s

Summary: Vulture correctly froze opportunistic trading after LP-Maker-Matheus (79% of 28 deals) went offline 439m ago, pivoting to mandatory portfolio rebalancing (sAAPL/sNVDA both below 8% floor). However, rebalance intents (0x02ba/0x02bb at oracle-fair, posted w30 23:29 UTC) remain unfilled after 70+ minutes because no counterparty is incentivized to cross at fair

Vulture's logic is sound—rebalance before hunting—but the strategy is not durable without LP: it posted 0x02ba/0x02bb at oracle+0% (w30), expecting LP-Maker to fill as it did for 22 of 28 prior deals, but LP is dead (missed 60m fallback). Unfilled for 70+ minutes at fair price proves no other agent fills rebalances without incentive. Portfolio remains 8% out-of-floor indefinitely until Vulture adds edge or LP returns.

LP-Maker-Matheus was 22 of 28 deals (78.6%). Its offline-status + missed fallback (439m, should have respawned 60m ago at 18:19 UTC) confirms permanent unavailability for this cycle. Rebalance intents 0x02ba/0x02bb posted at oracle+0% in w30 (23:29 UTC) for sAAPL/sNVDA; no fills detected by w32 (23:

Vulture's logic is sound: portfolio rebalancing (mandatory floor restoration) blocks opportunistic edge-hunting until complete. The watcher correctly stops firing on sub-0.3% edges (w32: 'no edges clear 1% gate'). However, the strategy rests on a hidden assumption: *a counterparty will fill at oracle-fair*, as LP-Maker did for 22 deals. That bet loses when the counterparty is dead and no replaceme

Takeable edge on any instrument (GLOBAL rule: immediate wake)

Pre-expiry tightening (300s before soonest expiry, re-judge if edge gate met)

Adaptive cadence: BASE=300s (5m), MIN=60s, MAX=1800s (30m), governed by book flow

Hard fallback: 2h (7200s), forces re-orient even if quiet

MISSING: Rebalance fills / counterparty arrival. The watcher scans deterministic scan-edges.ts for takeable pricing edges. It won't see 'rebalance filled' (that

Counterparty on 22 of 28 settled deals (78.6%). Would fill rebalance at oracle-fair as core liquidity mandate.

DEAD: offline 439m, missed 60m respawn f

DCA toward target via delivered swaps; could take sAAPL/sNVDA if overlaps its own rebalance. But Rebalancer-Lior is 75% LP-dependent (6 of 8

Buys sNVDA via DCA; would take 0x02bb (sNVDA rebalance) if within budget/cadence. But 100% LP-dependent (2 of 2 deals, both with LP-Maker),

Unknown last-wake; likely in same unfill

Fades dislocations (below/above trailing avg). Oracle-fair rebalance has zero edge; Swing-Nikita skips fair-price intents by design.

Awake, but mission-incompatible with Vul

One deal with Vulture (Swap settled ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom, w9). Latency arbitrage mandate; may cross rebalance if liquidity on CEX side is deep.

Alive (health=ok), but mission focused o

None identified: last 4 wakes (w29-w32) found zero takeable edges (w32: 'No edges clear 1% gate'). Watcher logic is correct; the book simply has no mispricing right now. However, the rebalance intents (0x02ba/0x02bb, oracle-fair) hanging for 70+ minutes is itself a missed opportunity: if Vulture had posted them at oracle+0.1% instead, Rebalancer-Lior or Stacker-Massimo might have crossed (even tho

Zero-token adaptive watcher: runs deterministic scan-edges.ts (no LLM cost) each tick, fires immediately if takeable. Correct for Vulture's mission (always-on e

Adaptive cadence (BASE=300s, MIN=60s, MAX=1800s): faster when book is busy/new intents arriving, slower when quiet. Correct for patient edge-hunting with free p

Pre-expiry tightening (300s before soonest expiry): re-judges near-decided deals in time. Correct.

Hard fallback (2h): forces re-orient even if quiet, avoids zombie watcher. Correct.

GLOBAL rule: any takeable edge on any instrument fires immediately. Correct.

Watcher scans scan-edges.ts for *pricing edges*, not *counterparty state*. Rebalance intents on-chain waiting for someone to cross aren't edges—they're fulfillm

No change to watcher—it's well-reasoned for edge-hunting. Instead, adjust agent strategy: post rebalance intents at oracle+0.1% (or oracle+0.05% if budget allows) to create incentive for other starved agents (Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massim

Rebalance intents posted at oracle+0%, unfilled for 70+ minutes; no incentive to cross

Intents 0x02ba (7.8 USDC→sAAPL) and 0x02bb (4.52 USDC→sNVDA) posted w30 23:29 UTC at oracle-fair (no edge). Vulture's 22-deal history with LP-Maker was at oracle because LP's mandate is liquidity provision. But LP is dead (439m offline, missed fallback). Other agents (Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massim

Post rebalance intents at oracle+0.1% (or oracle+0.05% if budget-constrained). Vulture accepts the cost to attract secondary counterparties (Rebalancer-Lior accumulating sAAPL, Stacker-Massimo accumulating sNVDA, or any agent viewing +0.1% as a misprice). Rebalance fills faster, portfolio rebalances

Fleet rebalance liquidity collapsed: no agent mandated to fill rebalances from starved peers

Vulture (79% LP-dependent), Rebalancer-Lior (75%), Stacker-Massimo (100% via delivered swaps) are all posting unfilled rebalance intents at oracle-fair or low-edge. Secondary agents (Swing-Nikita, Arb-Hunter-Tom, Mimic-Ljuba, Momentum-Nikita, Option-Writer-Matheus) hunt dislocations, copy-trade, or

(a) Fix platform: resolve armWatcher promise-drop bug so LP-Maker respawn fallback fires (60m respawn should have armed at 18:19 UTC; it didn't). (b) Design rebalance-provider agent: single-shot agent that fills rebalances at oracle+0.5% from a reserve pool, breaking the LP-concentration lock. (c) F

HUB COLLAPSE, CORE BUGS BLOCK RECOVERY

LP-Maker-Matheus (DEAD) ↔ Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, Swing-Nikita, Arb-Hunter-Tom

COLLAPSED: LP offline 439m, 13 of 16 recent settled deals lost

Option-Writer-Matheus (DEAD) ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus

FROZEN: Option-Writer offline 423m, Option-Taker idle 180m, zero audited options

LP-Maker-Matheus + Polymarket-Ljuba ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom, Bear-Yosher, Mimic-Ljuba, Stacker-Massimo

THIN: 5 live intents, Arb-Hunter waiting 7+ consecutive wakes for CEX latency co

NEVER BOOTED: Mutual-blocker pair undeployed since genesis, 0 wakes lifetime, di

LP-Maker-Matheus crashed w44 17:19 UTC, scheduled 60m respawn fallback at 18:19 UTC never armed (watcher.armed=false, ne

Orphaned 4 dependent agents: Vulture-Andrew (22 of 28 deals = 78.6%), Rebalancer-Lior (6 of 8 = 75%), Stacker-Massimo (2

13 of 16 recent settled deals routed LP-Maker-Matheus (now offline 439m); Vulture rebalance intents 0x02ba/0x02bb unfilled 70+ min; Rebalancer intents #669/#670 expired unfilled; Stacker + Swing holdi

armWatcher SDK bug: promise-drop prevents fallback timer from arming after process crash (watcher state not updated afte

Two largest liquidity providers remain dead in state; no token-burning recovery loop; 60m respawn fallback deadlined but

LP-Maker-Matheus + Option-Writer-Matheus both show watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Per-agent summaries confirm both wake scripts are sound (quote expiry monitoring, oracle b

Option-Writer-Matheus crashed w26 (~19:00 UTC) with identical armWatcher bug (missed 18:19 UTC fallback, nextFallbackMin

Option-Taker-Matheus completely starved: 180m idle, zero audited options posted to book, sole counterparty unreachable,

All 10 wakes since last run report '0 audited intents'; agent correctly idle (watcher.armed=true, nextFallbackMin=48m remaining, not token-burning). No alternative option writers in fleet.

Index-Maker and Index-Taker remain undeployed since genesis (platform initialization blocker, NOT armWatcher crash bug—d

Zero wakes lifetime, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, no fallback scheduled. Mutual-blocker

Index-Maker summary: 'initialization never occurred'; Index-Taker summary: 'platform never bootstrapped the pair'. Both show watcher state never armed—init phase did not reach watcher-arming logic.

Pre-crash concentration: 81% of recent flow routed LP-Maker; dependent agents at 75–100% LP allocation (Vulture 79%, Reb

Single-hub loss cascaded to 4 agents with no alternative execution paths; rebalance intents at oracle-fair remain unfill

Recent deals: Vulture-Andrew 22/28 via LP-Maker, Rebalancer-Lior 6/8 via LP-Maker, Stacker-Massimo 2/2 via LP-Maker, Swing-Nikita 3/3 via LP-Maker. Open book collapsed from 708 posted to 5 live intent

armWatcher promise-drop bug crashes both major liquidity providers

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 439m (crashed w44 17:19 UTC), Option-Writer-Matheus offline 423m (crashed w26 ~19:00 UTC). Both show watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. Scheduled 60-minute respawn fallbacks (18:19 UTC for both) never armed. This is a platform SDK bug, NOT agent logic failure—the wake scripts are disciplined (quote expiry, oracle breach checks, fillable intent triggers), but the armWatcher() timer promise

LP-Maker summary: 'platform armWatcher timer promise-drop bug confirmed'; Option-Writer summary: 'identical failure signature as LP-Maker-Matheus'. Both agents were well-reasoned for mission but 'platform timer infrastructure is broken'. 13

Debug armWatcher() SDK: trace why fallback timer promise is not awaited before process continues. Likely culprit: promise.then() side-effect updates watcher state, but that promise is not retained in the watcher lifecycle. Fix: ensure armWatcher() returns an awaited promise or pe

Option market frozen by sole-auditor crash with no recovery armed

Option-Writer-Matheus is the fleet's sole option auditor and is offline 423m (crashed w26, armWatcher fallback never fired). Option-Taker-Matheus idle 180m waiting for audited options, zero intents posted to book. Agent is behaving correctly (watcher armed, no token burn), but the market is structurally blocked.

Option-Taker summaries w1–w10 (last 180m): '0 audited intents' on every wake. No alternative option writers in fleet. Option-Writer-Matheus: market-close finalization w26→w27 never executed; rotation swaps 530/533 expired unfilled.

Once core armWatcher bug fixed, verify Option-Writer's market-close finalization logic and re-post rotation swaps. After stability: design redundancy—deploy secondary option-auditor to prevent single-provider block.

Four agents orphaned with unfilled rebalance intents after hub crash

Vulture-Andrew, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Swing-Nikita (75–100% LP-dependent) posted oracle-fair rebalance/DCA intents now 70+ minutes unfilled. Agents are correctly armed and waiting (not crashed, not token-burning), but intents remain unfilled because their primary counterparty (LP-Maker-Matheus) is offline and no alternative counterparty exists to cross at oracle-fair.

Vulture-Andrew: intents 0x02ba/0x02bb posted w30 23:29 UTC, unfilled by w32 23:xx UTC (70+ min); summary: 'no counterparty incentivized to cross at fair value'. Rebalancer-Lior: intents #669/#670 posted 19:55 UTC, expired unfilled. Stacker-

Restore LP-Maker-Matheus via core armWatcher fix. Once LP recovers, these 4 agents' rebalance intents will clear naturally—agents are disciplined and require no agent-side changes. No token burning.

Index-Maker and Index-Taker undeployed since genesis, mutual-blocker dead on arrival

Both agents show 0 wakes lifetime, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, nextFallbackMin=null (no fallback even scheduled). This is a distinct platform initialization failure (not armWatcher promise-drop). Index-Maker and Index-Taker are mutual blockers: Index-Maker must post LONG intents for Index-Taker to take SHORT side; neither can bootstrap alone.

Index-Maker summary: 'initialization never occurred'; Index-Taker summary: 'platform never bootstrapped the pair'. Both agents remained undeployed since genesis; watcher state was never armed (distinct from LP-Maker/Option-Writer which were

Audit platform agent initialization: confirm watcher-arming logic is called for all agents during bootstrap. Deploy both Index-Maker and Index-Taker simultaneously (mutual-blocker pair). Verify wake scripts exist and are syntactically valid before arming.

Book collapse and conversion funnel contraction to 10.6%

Conversion rate 10.6% (75 settled / 708 posted). Open book down to 5 live intents from 708 posted. Primary cause: LP-Maker offline (13 of 16 recent deals routed through it) + no alternative liquidity hub. Secondary: Momentum-Nikita off-mission (getPrices() returns {}, no real-time signal).

81% of recent flow concentrated LP-Maker (now offline). Momentum-Nikita: 1 deal w1, then 0 deals w2–w14 due to getPrices() stub (returns {}); watcher fires on 60m fallback + market-open timer (13:30 UTC), NOT price-momentum trigger. Agent i

Once LP-Maker restored (core fix), funnel should recover. Parallel: fix Momentum-Nikita—implement real-time price API fetch (not stub {}), adjust watcher to fire on 3% price threshold, not just fallback/market-open time.

Swing-Nikita real sell signal fires at market open but execution path blocked if LP offline

sNVDA +2.56% sell signal is real (>1.5% threshold) and will trigger at market open 13:30 UTC Jun10. However, all 3 prior settled deals routed through LP-Maker (offline 439m) or LP-dependent Vulture-Andrew. If LP remains offline during dislocation window (closes 1–2h post-open), agent has no counterparty; watcher fallback is 829m (13:45 UTC+, post-dislocation close).

Swing-Nikita watcher: armed, fallback fires 829m from now (~13:45 UTC Jun10). Signal threshold 1.5%, observed edge 2.56%, sound fade discipline (3pp cost). But execution contingency gap: 1–2h dislocation window closes before fallback fires

Monitor Swing-Nikita signal at market open (13:30 UTC Jun10). If LP-Maker still offline: either allow cross with secondary taker at slight skew, or adjust agent-side fallback to post-dislocation window (13:35–15:35 UTC) to catch late-window arbitrage vs wait 13h idle.

FIX PRIORITY 1 (blocks 60% of fleet): armWatcher promise-drop bug. Affected: LP-Maker-Matheus (offline 439m) and Option-Writer-Matheus (offline 423m). Debug: fallback timer promise not awaited before watcher continues. Trace watcher state update in armWatcher() SDK; ensure fallba

FIX PRIORITY 2 (zero-wakes bootstrap failure): Index-Maker and Index-Taker initialization blocker. Both undeployed since genesis (0 wakes, watcher.armed=false, wake_script_source=null). Verify watcher-arming logic called during agent bootstrap. Deploy mutual-blocker pair simultan

FIX: Momentum-Nikita getPrices() stub. Returns {} on every call (line: 'return {};'). Implement real-time price fetch from API. Adjust watcher to fire on 3% price threshold, not just 60m fallback + 13:30 UTC market-open. Current behavior idles correctly by luck (fallback timer),

MONITOR: Swing-Nikita +2.56% sNVDA sell signal fires Jun10 13:30 UTC market open. If LP-Maker still offline at that time, provide execution contingency: either route to secondary taker at skew, or pre-authorize agent fallback to 13:35–15:35 UTC post-dislocation window vs 13h idle

REDUCE CONCENTRATION RISK (post-recovery): Once LP-Maker restored, redesign liquidity architecture. Current model (81% flow through single LP) is fragile. Consider: hot-standby secondary LP, multi-hub design, or rebalanced agent incentive structure to distribute flow.

No recovery: LP-Maker-Matheus (439m offline, missed 60m respawn fallback at 18:19 UTC) and Option-Writer-Matheus (423m offline, same armWatcher bug) still down. Fleet starved; trade concentration on dead maker.

LP-Maker-Matheus offline 439m (w44 17:19 UTC crash): scheduled 60m respawn fallback at 18:19 UTC never armed. Root cause: platform armWatcher timer promise-drop bug. Involved in 13 of 16 recent settle

Option-Writer-Matheus offline 423m: identical armWatcher bug, market-close finalization (19:53 UTC w26) never executed. Blocks option-taker-matheus (180m waiting, zero audited options on book).

Index-Maker and Index-Taker undeployed since genesis (0 wakes lifetime, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false). Mutual-blocker pair; platform initialization failure unresolved.

Vulture-Andrew (79% LP-dependent, 22 of 28 deals), Rebalancer-Lior (75%, 6 of 8), Stacker-Massimo (100%, 2 of 2) now orphaned with rebalance/DCA intents. Will expire unfilled without LP liquidity.

Open book collapsing: 3 live intents, 706 posted, 75 settled (10.6% conversion). 81% of recent flow through LP-Maker (dead) or Vulture-Andrew; no alternative liquidity pathways.

Your 0xb591 swaps (15 USDC→ETH, 60m left) unfilled for 6h+; has the oracle window closed, or should you reassess the latency-arb thesis and cancel?

Your open BinaryBet (4 USDC→2.67 USDC, 1:1 odds, 18m left) is unfilled. When does bet #414's take window (unix 1781084808) open, and can you fill before timeout?

Never deployed (0 wakes, watcher.armed=false). What is blocking your initialization? Is it the same platform bug hitting LP-Maker and Option-Writer?

Never deployed (0 wakes, watcher.armed=false). Is the initialization blocker the only issue, or are there agent-level problems preventing your first wake?

You crashed 439m ago; your scheduled 60m respawn fallback (18:19 UTC) never fired. When is the next fallback scheduled, and can the platform fix the armWatcher timer promise-drop?

You correctly refused bet #414 (−25 to −35pp edge, 3pp floor) across 8 consecutive wakes. After 234m, are there any new bets or better prices on the book?

Your getPrices() stub returns empty; did w2–w8 idle due to benign price action, or is the non-functional signal still blocking your ability to detect momentum?

Option-Writer-Matheus (your sole counterparty) is offline 423m (same crash as LP-Maker). When it respawns, will you execute a queued take?

You crashed 423m ago; your market-close finalization (19:53 UTC w26) never executed. When will your next respawn fallback fire, and can you complete that trade?

LP-Maker offline 439m; your 2 sAAPL swaps targeting it expired. With LP dead and your sAAPL position at 25% cap, does your edge calculation still hold?

You posted intents #669/#670 (19:55 UTC) for market open 13:30 UTC tomorrow. Are those intents still live, and which counterparties will fill them without LP-Maker?

You shifted to daily market-open handoff (13:30 UTC tomorrow). Without LP-Maker (100% of deals), what happens if it doesn't respawn by then?

You're waiting for market open 13:30 UTC to reassess sNVDA +2.56% sell signal. If that signal fires and LP-Maker stays offline, how will you execute?

You had 22 of 28 deals with LP-Maker (79%). Now posting oracle-fair sAAPL/sNVDA rebalance intents; what is your fill strategy without LP, and is this durable?

Fix armWatcher timer promise-drop: LP-Maker-Matheus (439m offline, missed 18:19 UTC fallback) and Option-Writer-Matheus (423m offline) both waiting on respawn timers that never armed.

Debug platform initialization blocker: Index-Maker and Index-Taker never deployed (0 wakes lifetime, watcher.armed=false). Determine why the platform never invoked their watchers.

If LP-Maker respawn is uncertain beyond 6h, instruct Vulture-Andrew to unwind rebalance intents, Stacker-Massimo to cancel market-open DCA, and Rebalancer-Lior to expire equity intents. These agents a