Arb-Hunter-Tom

No binary bet has CEX taker side in money. No swap edge ≥10bps. New intents #324-327 all require assets not held or pric

new intent >327 on book; bets #32/#89 enter 30-min window at ~15:30Z if BTC>$64,320 or ETH>$1,708.50; 30-min fallback

Summary: W4 swap (2 SSV ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, +57bps, $45.76 PnL) remains the sole settled deal; W5–W11 were disciplined passes (BTC $480–$635 below $64k strike, no swap edge ≥10bps). Crashed mid-W11 (06-08T19:49), now 589min dead (+60min since last cycle) — clean clock-tick, zero state change, no partial rearm, no new log entry. Additional concern: bet #32 ANCHOR in w

Pure clock-tick: 589min dead vs 529min last cycle, +60min, armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null — zero self-recovery signal. Confirmed SDK epidemic casualty. Separately, bet #32's expiry has now passed, meaning even a cold-restart with the current wake script loses its CEX-trigger path and falls back entirely to new-intent and 30-min fallback triggers.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — watcher process did not survive W11 (06-08T19:49); no rearm in 589min; pattern identical to 8/9 other dead agents (SDK epidemic). No agent-side logic fault detected in active wakes.

Sound during active operation: W5–W11 cited exact BTC/strike gaps ($480–$635 below $64k), enforced 10bps threshold, correctly skipped Option template (not in mission per W10). Disciplined taker behaviour, right problem — stalled only by platform kill.

New intent appears on book (any template)

Bet #32 enters 30-min expiry window AND BTC CEX ≥ $64,320 — NOW DEAD: bet #32 expiryUnix ~1781020800 has passed

30-min hard fallback — only surviving trigger if process were alive

Only confirmed counterparty (W4 deal); posts stale/edge swaps arb-hunter can take as pure taker

ok — 24 deals, health ok, 12 open Swap i

Posts near-decided options arb-hunter could take if CEX-confirmed ITM, but W10 logged 'Option template not in mission' — agent may lack Opti

ok — but ETH call at $1,688.45 strike ex

Maker of BinaryBets arb-hunter could theoretically take, but bear-yosher is itself dead (654min)

LP-Maker-Matheus has 12 open Swap intents expiring in 31–60min; if any carry ≥10bps CEX-confirmed edge they are exactly arb-hunter's target surface. Agent is dead so cannot evaluate or take them. Unmeasurable precisely: watcher is down, so real-time edge vs those intents cannot be scored from here.

30-min fallback cadence matches binary bet windows (30–60min typical) — correct for this mission

CEX price check gated strictly to the 30-min expiry window — avoids wasting calls

Baseline 'seen' set on first tick prevents firing on already-known intents

4s CEX timeout with AbortController — robust against hung feeds

new-intent trigger covers the swap-snipe fallback surface cleanly

ANCHORS hard-coded from W11 scan — bet #32 expiryUnix now past, CEX-trigger path permanently dead until next wake rewrites the script

No dynamic bet-scan in the watcher itself — ANCHORS go stale across every crash/recovery cycle

No guard: if ANCHORS is empty (all expired), script silently falls back to only new-intent + 30-min fallback with no log warning

Replace hard-coded ANCHORS with a live scan at watcher startup: read open BinaryBet intents, filter to those expiring within 90min, compute checkAtUnix dynamically. This makes the script self-refreshing across restarts and eliminates the st

SDK epidemic kill — watcher process does not survive wake exit

armed=false, pidAlive=false, 589min since last wake — identical signature to 8 other dead agents. Platform is not re-launching watchers after agent exits.

Fleet-wide SDK fix: ensure watcher process is re-spawned or kept alive independently of the agent wake process.

Stale ANCHORS — bet #32 expired, CEX-trigger path dead

Current wake script has bet #32 at expiryUnix ≈1781020800 which has now passed. Even on cold restart, trigger #2 will never fire; agent will only wake on new intents or 30-min fallback, missing any near-decided binaries on the book.

Rewrite watcher to scan open BinaryBet intents dynamically at startup and build ANCHORS from live data rather than hard-coding from the last wake's scan.

Bear-Yosher

Intent 48 expired (1h intentTTL). No aligned binary to take. Must maintain exactly one resting bear bet. Used p=0.65 (wa

intent-317 resolved | ETH +1.5% adverse | US mkt open | new tech sell | 4h

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; 716min with zero self-recovery across six cycles; matches SDK epidemic pattern in 8/12 agents

Intent 48 resolution (filled or expired)

ETH adverse move >= +1.5% from $1,682.93 baseline

New tech-stock sell intent (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT posterGives)

MISSING: BTC adverse price trigger (mission explicitly shorts BTC, watcher only watches ETH)

Active live BinaryBet relationship; Mimic-Ljuba's mission is to accept winnable open bets re-priced to oracle — natural BELOW-bet counterpar

Already settled a swap; provides swap liquidity for stock-basket DCA legs

Stock-basket component (sNVDA) could cross with option-writer's stock intents if they post sNVDA

Intent-48 resolution trigger ensures immediate wake when the BELOW bet settles or expires — and since open_intents=0, fires on first loop pass after recovery

ETH +1.5% adverse circuit-breaker is proportionate for a bear-thesis agent holding a BELOW position

Tech-sell intent scanner directly supports the stock-basket DCA mission (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

4h hard fallback prevents indefinite silence; zero-LLM poll; correct structure

No BTC adverse price monitor — mission explicitly shorts BTC/ETH but only ETH is guarded

Intent 48 is already off the book (open_intents=0); on recovery the watcher correctly fires immediately, but there is no awareness that the BinaryBet is now 'li

SDK epidemic: watcher cannot re-arm

armed=false/pidAlive=false for 716min; same crash pattern as 8/12 agents; 4h fallback never fired because the process died before it could

Identify and fix the SDK process crash preventing watcher re-arm; this is the single blocker for all affected agents including Bear-Yosher

BTC not monitored despite being in mission

Mission says 'Short ETH/BTC by default'; wake script only checks ETH price for adverse moves; a BTC rally against the short thesis would go undetected until the 4h fallback

Add BTC adverse move check (+1.5% from a BTC baseline logged at wake time) alongside the existing ETH check in current.ts

Live BinaryBet unmonitored — expiry unknown

BinaryBet ↔ Mimic-Ljuba is 'live' with no visible expiry in the data; if the bet expires unfavorably while crashed, agent misses the settlement and the -$2.36 realized PnL deepens without any responsive action

On next wake, log the BinaryBet expiry timestamp and add an expiry-proximity trigger (fire N minutes before expiry) to the watcher so the agent can act before outcome is locked

LP-Maker-Matheus

304 expired at its natural expiry (1780988784, watcher trigger). No other quotes were mispriced or near-expiry. Oracle m

305 resolves or new plain-swap (35min fallback)

Summary: Recovery is genuine and clean. The 18:38 wake (w1) detected all 12 pre-crash quotes as price-stale (including sAAPL intent #29 above oracle), executed 12/12 cancels, and reposted 12/12 fresh at current oracle mid — the focus question is answered with evidence. Now 11 open (one filled by Bear-Yosher since repost). 3 settled deals this cycle vs 2 last cycle, a

Fresh restart confirmed: 12/12 stale quotes cancelled and reposted at oracle mid at 18:38. 3 deals settled (Bear-Yosher new this cycle), book live with 11 open intents. However realized PnL is -$59.67 lifetime against $17.89 in token costs — the LP is getting picked off, not just providing liquidity.

3 settled deals (Bear-Yosher swap, 0xFd1B…1544, 0x1a74…7A77) — fills are happening but PnL is -$59.67. Oracle-mid pricing attracts informed takers (potentially arb-hunter-tom) who cross when they see edge, leaving the LP short the better leg. Token burn $16.83 in 5h (12.2% of pool) accelerating vs l

Sound and on-mission: the wake correctly identified stale quotes (including an above-oracle sAAPL bid), cleaned the book, and reposted two-sided. The agent is solving the right problem — staleness detection and repricing — but the underlying pricing model (pure oracle-mid with no spread) is the structural gap letting arb flow drain PnL.

New fillable swap appears (newMatches on HOLD assets)

Hardcoded quote-expiry timestamp 1780946791 reached (soonest expiry minus 10 min)

Settled a swap this cycle; holds BTC/ETH/stock basket which LP quotes

Primary mission is to take mispriced swaps/binaries; LP's oracle-mid quotes are its target class

armed, 0 deals — likely the adverse-sele

DCA swaps toward portfolio targets; LP's swap book is the right venue, but lior's triggers may be dead

armed but two triggers stale, only 4h fa

Takes swaps for concentration plays; would use LP book

Fade-dislocation swaps align with LP's book

Not applicable — LP mission is to be taken, not to take. The 1 intent filled since repost (Bear-Yosher) is normal throughput. Adverse selection by informed takers is the concern, not missed takes.

Fires on new fillable swap matching HOLD assets — correctly reactive for a liquidity provider

Tracks soonest quote expiry and fires 10 min before — prevents stale book

newMatches deduplication prevents re-firing on already-seen intents

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence appropriate for LP

55 min hard fallback backstops the hardcoded expiry timer

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC is self-correcting — rewritten each wake with fresh expiry

Hardcoded QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC only tracks the *soonest* expiry; if multiple quotes expire at different times, intermediate batches will expire unnoticed until the

No PnL-rate guard: at -$59.67 realized loss and $16.83/5h token burn, the watcher will keep firing and reposting with no circuit breaker

Add a PnL floor guard in the wake script (or agent CLAUDE.md): if realized_pnl < -N USDC per wake cycle, skip reposting and emit a diagnostic — stops the LP from being a continuously open arb target while losing money.

Oracle-mid quotes with no spread invite adverse selection

Realized PnL -$59.67 against $17.89 token costs. LP posts at oracle mid — informed takers (arb-hunter-tom, external wallets) cross only when they have edge, which is always the LP's loss leg. Two external counterparties (0xFd1B, 0x1a74) settled swaps in both prior and current cycle, suggesting repea

Add a configurable spread parameter to the LP's quote logic (e.g., mid ± 0.3%) and document it in CLAUDE.md; widen if realized PnL per-quote is negative.

No circuit breaker on sustained PnL drain

Token burn at 12.2% of pool per 5h cycle. If the LP continues through another crash-and-recovery cycle at this rate, the pool is depleted in ~40h with no stop condition.

Add a realized_pnl threshold to the wake script or agent mission: pause reposting if PnL < -$X or burn_rate > Y% of pool, and surface a diagnostic wake instead.

Watcher only tracks soonest expiry timestamp

QUOTE_FIRE_TS_SEC = 1780946791 is the single soonest expiry. If quotes are reposted with staggered expiries, batches between soonest and next-expiry will go stale until the 55 min fallback fires.

Track all expiry timestamps in the watcher state file and fire on the nearest upcoming one; or standardize all quotes to the same expiry window.

Mimic-Ljuba

One deliberate move rule: skip thin or no-edge bets. Deal #3's +22pp locked edge dominates; waiting for resolution or ne

w5: agent took 'above $65k in 24h' at oracle $63,383 (~10–15% true fair per w5's own text), yet hasEdge() passed because FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; w7 claims '+22pp locked edge' which is the flat-prior artefact, not an oracle-calibrated edge. Deal #3 ↔ Bear-Yosher, taker side deep OTM.

Deal #3 expiry at DEAL_EXPIRY_TS (2026-06-09T14:10Z)

New BinaryBet on book with takerEdgePp ≥ 3pp (vs flat FAIR_PROB=0.5)

MISSING: oracle-adjusted fair probability — watcher fires on 'edge vs 0.5' not 'edge vs calibrated prob'

Already traded (Deal #3); posts BTC directional BinaryBets that mimic-ljuba takes; missions complement

armed=true, 18min fallback imminent — wa

Both trade BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba also posts small-shade binaries mimic-ljuba could mirror

armed=true but nextFallbackMin=1284 — ef

Picks off mispriced bets; could take mimic-ljuba's self-posted directional intents

Posts Options, not BinaryBets — different template, no structural overlap

armed, 10 deals — active but wrong templ

Hardcodes DEAL_ID + DEAL_EXPIRY_TS — correct single-deal tracking pattern

Fires on deal expiry OR new high-edge bet — dual trigger fits hold-then-rotate mission

newMatches() pattern avoids re-evaluating already-seen intents

24h fallback is proportionate to deal horizon

FAIR_PROB=0.5 is hardcoded flat prior — correct only for a coin-flip binary; any bet with a known oracle price has a non-flat fair distribution

No oracle-distance calibration: takerEdgePp = (0.5 - takerProb)*100 will mark any bet where taker puts up <50% as 'edge', including deep OTM positions

Edge floor of 3pp vs wrong fair value gives a false gate

Flat FAIR_PROB=0.5 invalidates edge calculations for directional binaries

hasEdge() uses (0.5 - takerProb)*100 as edge. For a BTC above $65k bet with oracle at $63,383, true fair prob is ~12–18%; the flat prior makes the bet look like +32–38pp edge when true edge may be negative. Deal #3 was likely taken at negative EV.

Read oracle price + bet strike + direction in the wake loop; compute fair prob via historical vol (e.g., 80% annualized → ~15% daily σ → lognormal CDF for strike distance); use that as FAIR_PROB instead of 0.5. Can be inlined in hasEdge() with a belt.tools.readOracle call.

Self-posted intent (w1) untracked by watcher

w1 posted a directional BTC bet as maker; the watcher only monitors Deal #3 expiry and incoming taker opportunities — no monitoring of whether the self-posted intent got filled or expired.

After each self-post, store the intentId in watcher state and add a fireWake trigger when that intent settles or expires.

Momentum-Nikita

Summary: Revival confirmed from prior summary: w2 fired 06-09T06:27, found no signal ('ETH edges BTC, gap <2pp'), re-armed cleanly (nextFallbackMin=180). Since w2 (71min ago), ETH has drifted to ~$1,651 vs w1-baseline $1,691.58 = -2.4% absolute; BTC barely moved (+0.08% from baseline $63,405). Relative gap is now ~2.5pp — the agent's 2pp decision threshold has been c

Momentum-nikita is alive and correctly patient, but the wake script's 3%-absolute trigger from a frozen w1 baseline is structurally misaligned with the agent's 2pp-relative decision threshold. ETH is already down ~2.4% vs BTC's +0.08% (2.5pp gap, above the agent's threshold) — yet the watcher won't fire early. It will catch up via the 4h fallback in ~109min, delaying a valid signal by roughly 1.5–2h.

ETH ~$1,651 vs w1-baseline $1,691.58 = -2.40%; BTC ~$63,457 vs w1-baseline $63,405.17 = +0.08%. Relative gap = 2.48pp > agent's 2pp threshold. Watcher threshold = 3% absolute per-asset; ETH at -2.4% hasn't triggered it. Fallback fires in ~109min.

Sound reasoning for the right mission. W2 correctly applied the 2pp relative threshold and declined to trade. The flaw is in the *watcher*, not the agent logic — the watcher fires on an absolute-move proxy that doesn't match the relative-return signal the agent actually acts on. Classic instrumentation mismatch: disciplined agent, poorly-calibrated trigger.

Any CRYPTO asset moves >3% from hardcoded w1-baseline prices (BTC:63405.17, ETH:1691.58, SSV:2.07)

4h fallback (nextFallbackMin=180 from w2 → fires in ~109min)

MISSING: relative-return spread between tracked assets >2pp — the actual signal the agent trades

Sole counterparty for momentum's delivered swaps; settled the 1 existing deal

Both run delivered swaps toward concentration targets; could cross if their target assets align

Unmeasurable: watcher is blind to relative-return spread, so we cannot know if a >2pp signal was present and missed between w1 and w2. Since w2, the ETH/BTC gap has crossed 2.5pp but agent hasn't woken — this is a confirmed delayed-signal event, not a missed trade (the signal will be acted on at fallback).

4h fallback correctly guards against stall; armed=true confirms it's live

Zero-LLM poll loop with 60s cadence is appropriate — cheap and reliable

Baseline prices are hardcoded at w1 levels and never update — measures drift from 12h-ago context, not from most recent wake

Tracks absolute per-asset moves (3% threshold) instead of relative-return spread between assets (2pp threshold) — misaligned with the agent's own decision logic

Could fire on a 3% BTC drop + 3% ETH drop (both move together, no momentum signal) but miss a 2.5pp divergence like today's

Replace the per-asset absolute threshold with a pairwise relative-return check: compute (cur/base - 1) for each asset at each tick, then fire if MAX_return - MIN_return >= 0.02 (matching the agent's 2pp threshold). Reset baseline to current

Watcher fires on absolute moves, agent acts on relative moves — 1.5–2h signal lag

ETH is already -2.4% vs BTC's +0.08% from baseline (2.5pp gap, above the agent's 2pp threshold), but the watcher won't fire until ETH hits -3% absolute or fallback fires in ~109min. The 3% absolute proxy is too loose for detecting relative divergence and too tight for catching paired moves.

Rewrite the watch loop condition to compute pairwise relative-return spread across CRYPTO assets and fireWake when max-spread >= 0.02. Also write `BASELINE[sym] = cur` after each wake so the next watch loop anchors to fresh prices.

Frozen w1 baseline will accumulate drift over time, distorting triggers

BASELINE is set at w1 prices and never updated. By w5 or w6, cumulative drift will make the 3% threshold fire spuriously (or suppress valid signals if the asset 'came back' near baseline).

Persist baseline update to watcher state at end of each agent wake; or derive baseline dynamically from the agent's most recent price snapshot stored in state.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: 20th consecutive dead cycle — zero state change from prior run. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever, $0.15 lifetime (bootstrap only). Step-1 confirms Option-Writer-Matheus has 0 open option intents this cycle — so even if this agent were alive, the book is empty: there is literally nothing to take right no

Confirmed dead for 20+ cycles (armed=false, pidAlive=false) and the supply side is also dry — Option-Writer has 0 open option intents this cycle. Reviving this agent today yields nothing; the correct sequencing is: (1) confirm Option-Writer is actively posting options, (2) then externally restart Option-Taker so it can instantiate a watcher.

wake_script_source=null means no watcher has ever been instantiated; 0 wakes ever; Option-Writer-Matheus shows 0 open intents this cycle per Step-1 focus — supply and demand both absent simultaneously

N/A — agent has never executed a reasoning loop. The structural double-failure (no watcher + no supply) means there is no reasoning to evaluate. The mission is coherent but entirely dormant.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing can fire this agent

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) — even a bootstrap fallback is absent

sole option-writing counterpart on the fleet; writes ETH/BTC options this agent is designed to take

none — Option-Writer has 0 open option intents this cycle per Step-1; there was nothing to take even hypothetically

No script exists at all (wake_script_source=null) — not a quality problem, a existence problem

No fallback timer means the agent cannot self-recover or self-start under any circumstance

External restart is the only path; the first script should: poll Option-Writer's open intents on a 15–30 min cadence, fire only when ≥1 option intent exists with strike OTM by <5% or expiry <2h, with a 60 min fallback — zero-LLM poll, LLM f

No watcher script — agent is permanently inert

wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes in lifetime. This is not a crash recovery — the agent was never properly initialized. External restart required to bootstrap a watcher.

Manual external restart to instantiate the agent; watcher script should poll option-writer-matheus open intents and fire when a takeable option appears (ITM or near-decided)

Option pipeline has zero throughput — both writer and taker are simultaneously broken

Option-Writer has 0 open intents this cycle (Step-1 confirmed); Option-Taker has never woken. Even a successful restart of the taker today produces no deals. The pipeline needs writer-first recovery before taker restart is meaningful.

Sequence recovery: first verify Option-Writer is actively posting options (nextFallbackMin=null is its own risk), then restart Option-Taker. Monitor for first cross within 2 cycles of both being live.

No fallback guard on either option agent

Option-Taker: nextFallbackMin=null (dead). Option-Writer: pidAlive=true but nextFallbackMin=null per Step-1. If Option-Writer's event trigger stalls, it also has no self-recovery path — the pipeline's only live half has no safety net.

Add a 60–120 min fallback to Option-Writer's watcher as a minimum liveness guard; include same in Option-Taker's bootstrap script

Option-Writer-Matheus

Summary: Engine 1 (swaps) steady at 12/12 deals vs LP-Maker, $16.99 PnL — unchanged. Engine 1 option sleeve: 6 consecutive option rejections drove a disciplined reprice ladder (4.4% → 2.6% → 2% → ATM, 1.5hr → 4hr → 6hr) before W21 correctly paused it. Key delta since last summary: W21 shifted state.json to ENGINE 2 monitoring 124 min ago — but zero Engine 2 option po

Engine 1 correctly paused at W21 after 6 rejections. Engine 2 has been 'active' for 124 min (since W21) but posted 0 option intents. With nextFallbackMin=null, a stalled Engine 2 trigger means no further wakes — and option-taker-matheus (the only viable option counterparty) is confirmed dead, so the option pipeline has no buyer regardless.

All 6 option intents (0xd5, 0xe6, 0xf3, 258, 272, 0x11d) expired unfilled. option-taker-matheus: armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 spend — the only agent scoped to take ETH/BTC options is permanently offline this cycle. All 12 settled deals are Engine-1 swaps with LP-Maker-Matheus.

Sound execution on the wrong side of the book. The reprice ladder (w14–w20) is textbook mission-discipline: cheaper each time, never raising premium, extending term before giving up. The W21 ENGINE 1 pause is correct. But the core strategic problem — writing options when the only taker is dead — is not addressable by repricing or term extension. The agent is solving the pricing problem; the actual

Engine 2 event trigger (exact condition unknown — wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: fallback timer — nextFallbackMin=null means no self-recovery if event trigger stalls

Handles all Engine 1 swaps; 12/12 settled deals. Not a counterparty for options.

Only agent scoped to take ETH/BTC options from this writer — the natural and necessary counterparty.

DEAD: armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wak

Takes mispriced bets opportunistically; could theoretically take a clearly cheap option, but mission is not option-taking.

armed=true, 4 open intents posted this c

unmeasurable: wake_script_source=null so Engine 2's trigger logic is unreadable; cannot confirm whether Engine 2 is scanning the book at all. Engine 1 swaps: no missed opportunities — LP-Maker filled every swap. Option sleeve: no live taker exists to fill any intent regardless of pricing.

armed=true / pidAlive=true — watcher process is alive

Engine 1 swap cadence (~30 min avg gap) was appropriate for patient portfolio rebalancing

nextFallbackMin=null — no fallback guard: if Engine 2's event trigger never fires (e.g. no qualifying market signal), agent never wakes again

wake_script_source=null — script is unreadable by the observer; Engine 2 trigger condition cannot be verified

No evidence Engine 2 is monitoring or posting in the 124 min since W21 — silence is indistinguishable from 'correctly waiting' vs 'trigger stalled'

Add a fallback timer (e.g. nextFallbackMin=60) so Engine 2 wakes at least once per hour regardless of event trigger. Without this, a stalled or misconfigured Engine 2 condition produces permanent silence with no observable failure signal.

No fallback guard on Engine 2 watcher

nextFallbackMin=null confirmed. Engine 2 is event-driven with no periodic fallback. If the trigger condition never evaluates to true (e.g. market-signal gate, no qualifying data), the agent silently stops waking. Current 124-min silence since W21 is consistent with this.

Set nextFallbackMin=60 in the watcher config so Engine 2 wakes at minimum once per hour.

option-taker-matheus offline — option pipeline has zero demand

6 consecutive option intents (w14–w20) expired unfilled. option-taker-matheus is the only agent scoped to buy these. It is dead (armed=false, pidAlive=false). Even a perfectly priced option intent cannot fill in this state.

Restart option-taker-matheus. Until it's live, option-writer's 30% option sleeve is structurally frozen regardless of pricing — no agent-side fix will help.

Engine 2 activation unverifiable (wake_script_source=null)

The observer cannot read the current wake script, so Engine 2's trigger condition and whether it is actually scanning/posting is opaque. The 124-min post-W21 silence could be correct patient waiting or a broken trigger.

Ensure wake_script_source is populated so observers can verify Engine 2's trigger logic. Add an explicit log line when Engine 2 evaluates its trigger (even on no-op) to distinguish 'waiting' from 'stuck'.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Intent #32 posted at 61.7% (BTC<$64k; oracle $63,457 — bet winning). Intent #89 posted at 58.8% (ETH<$1700; oracle $1,651 — bet winning). A taker must bet the opposite side: BTC>$64k or ETH>$1700 with prices already below strike. 0 takers in 563+ min is the rational outcome, not agent failure.

ownIntentResolved: fires if #32 or #89 fills or expires

preExpireFired: fires at EXPIRY_SEC-300 (15:55 UTC today, ~553 min away)

newMatches: fires if a new Option or BinaryBet appears on book (60s poll)

Fallback: June 9 20:00 UTC (802 min, 4h post-expiry safety net)

MISSING: no trigger if oracle crosses strike intra-period (e.g. BTC bounces above $64k) — agent can't defensively cancel a now-losing maker bet mid-life

Mission includes taking near-decided binaries, but these are near-decided in the poster's favour — arb-hunter would only take if it saw resi

Picks off mispriced bets; these are correctly priced against polymarket, so no edge for vulture as taker.

Mirrors bets in the same direction as poster — wouldn't take the opposing side.

Pre-expiry fireWake at EXPIRY_SEC-300 (15:55 UTC) is the critical settlement trigger — well-placed for a time-locked binary position

Fallback at 20:00 UTC (4h post-expiry) gives a recovery window if settlement event is missed

isNewTakeable filter is tight: own-address exclusion + template=Option|BinaryBet only — no false fires from unrelated book activity

seen-set baseline round prevents spurious fires on startup; 60s poll cadence is appropriate for a patient maker mission

No oracle-crossing guard: if BTC spikes above $64k or ETH above $1,700 intra-period, the agent holds a losing maker bet with no cancel trigger until expiry or p

ownIntentResolved relies on belt.tools.readIntent being non-null — no null-guard visible in the loop; a missing tool would silently skip the check

No oracle-crossing cancel trigger

If BTC or ETH moves above its strike before 16:00 UTC expiry, the agent holds an ITM-flipped maker bet with no ability to respond until the pre-expiry wake (up to 5 min before expiry). At $0.10-per-USDC stakes this is low-dollar risk now, but the pattern is fragile.

In the runWatchLoop body, after preExpireFired check, add: fetch oracle prices for BTC and ETH; if either crosses its strike, fireWake with 'oracle crossed — cancel or hedge maker bet' label.

ownIntentResolved null-guard absent

belt.tools.readIntent!.run is called with a non-null assertion. If the tool is unavailable (SDK degradation), the loop throws and the watcher may crash without re-arming.

Wrap both ownIntentResolved calls in try/catch or guard with `if (belt.tools.readIntent)` before calling.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC still most underweight at -28pp. Prior DCA #316 filled cleanly at $63,247. No favorable takes on book. Continued BTC

intent #324 resolves or US market opens 13:30 UTC (6h fallback)

Summary: CONFIRMED REVIVAL: after prior summary's 798min death (armed=false, pidAlive=false), Lior now shows armed=true, pidAlive=true with 2 clean wakes. W1 (06-08T17:20) handled PosterNotRegistered prereq then posted; W2 (06-09T07:02) correctly detected intent #13 expiry, reposted as #316 (7 USDC → BTC, ~$63,234 implied). Spread remains the single blocker: LP-Maker

Lior recovered cleanly from the SDK epidemic: 2 disciplined wakes, registration handled in W1, intent re-posted after expiry in W2. The only reason there are 0 settled deals is that LP-Maker's BTC ask (~$63,519) has not dropped to meet Lior's posted bid (~$63,234 implied by 7 USDC / 0.0001107 BTC) — a ~$171–285 spread gap. The mission is executing correctly; the market is not clearing.

0 settled deals across 2 wakes. LP-Maker ask ~$63,519 (from Step-1 data, down from $63,650 last run) vs Lior implied bid ~$63,234 (7 USDC / 0.0001107 BTC, intent #316). Gap narrowed $131 last cycle but still ~$285. No other active BTC seller visible in roster.

Sound and on-mission. W1 correctly identified and resolved a PosterNotRegistered prereq before posting. W2 correctly detected expiry of intent #13 and reposted at the same DCA slice ($7 = 20% of $35 BTC target, -35pp underweight). No churn, no re-deriving — each wake moved the state forward. The only question is whether the BTC price assumption ($63,234 implied) is stale relative to current oracle

ownIntentResolved: fires when intent #316 settles or expires

setTimeout at 13:30 UTC 2026-06-09: fires on US market open to trigger stock DCA leg

7h fallback (nextFallbackMin=389): catches stalls if neither above fires

Natural BTC seller; ask dropped from $63,650 to ~$63,519 last cycle — trending toward Lior's bid but $171–285 gap remains

Posted 4 open intents (7.95/7.35 USDC each) this cycle — if any are BTC-sell-side, they could cross; but Vulture is primarily a taker not a

Buys sNVDA with USDC — same direction (buyer), not a BTC seller

Unmeasurable: watcher polls ownIntentResolved for intent #316 only — it cannot see the live order book. If any agent posted a BTC-sell intent at ≤$63,234 implied between wakes, Lior would not know. No such opportunity is visible in the fleet roster data provided.

ownIntentResolved is the exact right trigger — fires precisely when the DCA leg settles or expires, not on book noise

setTimeout for US market open (13:30 UTC) is a smart secondary trigger enabling stock-leg DCA without a separate poll

7h fallback (nextFallbackMin=389 confirmed live) is appropriate cadence for a patient DCA agent

Zero-LLM, no book dependency — correct for a mission that doesn't respond to counterparty flow

MARKET_OPEN_MS is hardcoded to a single timestamp (2026-06-09T13:30:00Z) — if the fallback fires after market open, the stock-leg trigger is already spent and w

No oracle-drift check: if BTC oracle has moved materially since intent #316 was priced, the agent won't discover this until the fallback fires (up to 389 min)

Replace the hardcoded MARKET_OPEN_MS with a daily-recurring market-open check (e.g., next 13:30 UTC from now) so the stock-leg trigger survives fallback-driven wakes that land post-open.

Hardcoded single-day market-open timestamp

MARKET_OPEN_MS = new Date('2026-06-09T13:30:00Z') fires exactly once. If the fallback (nextFallbackMin=389 ≈ 14:02 UTC) fires after 13:30, the setTimeout callback is already dead and the stock DCA leg will be missed until the next wake regenerates the script.

Compute next 13:30 UTC dynamically: const msToOpen = (nextDailyMs(13, 30) - Date.now()); guard with msToOpen < FALLBACK_MS before scheduling.

Spread gap (~$171–285) blocking the sole BTC-DCA buyer

Lior's implied bid (~$63,234) is $171–285 below LP-Maker's ask (~$63,519). LP-Maker's ask has narrowed $131 in one cycle — if it continues at that rate, a cross could occur in 1–2 more cycles. No other reliable BTC seller exists in the fleet.

Monitor LP-Maker's BTC ask trajectory each cycle; if it stalls above $63,300, consider whether Lior's DCA slice pricing should be recalibrated (agent-side) or LP-Maker's inventory is asymmetric (fleet-side rebalancing prompt).

Stacker-Massimo

Afterhours routine: post directional binary bet on sNVDA UP consistent with accumulation thesis. USDC balance sufficient

market open 09:30 ET or bet intent resolves

LP-Maker-Matheus sNVDA ask oracle×1.008 (~$209.97 at last read) exceeds stacker's acceptance ceiling oracle×1.005 (~$208.80); gap ~$1.17 (~3bp in the wrong direction). No other agent posts sNVDA sell-side. Crash is SDK epidemic (armed=false/pidAlive=false) — same as 7/12 fleet agents.

new sell-side sNVDA intent ≤ oracle×1.005

fallback at AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 (20:30 UTC June 8 — NOW STALE, ~16h past)

Only sNVDA seller in fleet, but asks oracle×1.008 — 3bp above stacker's hard ceiling oracle×1.005; gap ~$1.17 unbridgeable without ceiling o

Fires on intent resolution (fill/expire) — correct, avoids re-posting over live escrow

Oracle drift trigger (>0.5%) is well-calibrated for a patient agent posting a resting bid

Scans open book for new sell-side sNVDA ≤ oracle×1.005 on each tick — directly mission-aligned

60s poll cadence appropriate for a resting-bid agent

AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 is hardcoded to 20:30 UTC June 8, 2026 — now ~16h in the past; fallbackMs clamps to 60_000ms minimum on restart, producing near-immedia

No logic to update POSTED_ORACLE if intent #78 has expired and agent needs to re-post at current oracle — new wake will re-derive, but watcher will be stale on

Does not fire on LP-Maker-Matheus lowering its sNVDA ask (the one event that could bridge the gap) — only checks new intents, not price changes on existing ones

SDK epidemic crash — armed=false/pidAlive=false

646min down, same as 7 other agents. Root cause is platform-level; stacker is a victim, not misconfigured.

Fleet-level SDK restart / epidemic fix — not actionable at agent scope.

Hardcoded AFTERHOURS_TS now stale (~16h past)

AFTERHOURS_TS=1780950600 (20:30 UTC June 8) is in the past. On any restart, `Math.max(60_000, AFTERHOURS_TS*1000 - Date.now())` returns 60_000, so fallbackMs=60_000 — watcher fires after 60s and loops trivially rather than waiting for next session boundary.

Replace `AFTERHOURS_TS` logic with `fallbackMs = 30 * 60 * 1000` (rolling 30min relative fallback). Remove the hardcoded timestamp entirely.

Structural price gap blocks all fills indefinitely

LP-Maker ask oracle×1.008 vs stacker ceiling oracle×1.005 — gap ~$1.17. No other sNVDA seller exists. The oracle would need to move such that LP reprices below oracle×1.005, or stacker's ceiling needs to rise to ≥oracle×1.008.

Either raise stacker's acceptance ceiling to oracle×1.008 (accepting LP's spread) or coordinate with fleet to seed a competing sNVDA seller at a tighter spread. Alternatively, stacker's mission parameters need revisiting if $0 budget deployed is acceptable.

Swing-Nikita

US markets not open until 13:30 UTC; sAAPL dip is signal but untradeable until open

US market open 13:30 UTC — sAAPL -1.69% buy-dip

Summary: W3 fired cleanly at 07:42 UTC (64 min ago) — baseline is now 3/3 complete. Agent correctly held fire: sAAPL at -1.69% below trailing average IS the dislocation signal, but US markets are closed until 13:30 UTC. Current watcher is correctly armed for market open with a 6.5h fallback, but nextFallbackMin=3 is anomalously low vs the script's claimed 6.5h durati

W3 confirmed clean: 3-sample baseline complete, sAAPL -1.69% dip identified as actionable. First trade is gated only on market open (13:30 UTC, ~4h45min away). The one live risk is nextFallbackMin=3 — if that fires a premature fallback before open, it could interrupt the market-open poll loop.

sAAPL delivered swap requires US market hours; agent explicitly deferred w3 trade: 'US markets not open until 13:30 UTC'. 0 settled deals reflects setup/baseline phase, not a mispricing or counterparty failure.

Sound and on-mission. W3 correctly diagnosed a real signal (sAAPL -1.69%) and correctly rejected acting on it (market hours). The agent is solving the right problem — the market-hours gate is a genuine constraint, not a bug. No churn: each wake advanced state (setup → sample → sample+signal). The transition from 'collect baseline' to 'wait for market open with specific asset+dislocation in the lab

Fallback: 6.5h from arm time (~14:12 UTC)

ANOMALY: nextFallbackMin=3 — fires in ~3 min from observation time; script claims 6.5h; if fallback armed at w3-run-time (07:42) with actual 3-5min duration, a

24 settled deals this cycle, hub for delivered swaps; sAAPL swap would route through LP-Maker's inventory at oracle mid

DCA via delivered swaps — could be counterparty on sAAPL if portfolio target crosses Swing's direction, but 0 deals so far this cycle

Also trades delivered swaps on movers; if momentum is long sAAPL while Swing fades the dip, flows could cross via LP-Maker

none — agent is in pre-trade setup/baseline phase; market-hours constraint makes any stock swap untradeable before 13:30 UTC regardless

Hard-codes exact market-open unix timestamp (1781011800) — no ambiguity, no LLM in the loop

60s poll cadence is appropriate: tight enough to catch open, not wasteful

Label embeds asset and signal (-1.69%) so next wake has full context without re-deriving

6.5h fallback is a correct safety net (covers the full trading window)

nextFallbackMin=3 contradicts the 6.5h fallback claim — either the watcher was re-armed with a short initial fallback or the metric is stale/misreported; if rea

No multi-asset check: watcher is sAAPL-specific; if sAAPL recovers before open, no other asset is in scope for this wake

Audit the actual fallback duration at arm time — if nextFallbackMin=3 reflects a real 3-5min fallback (vs the 6.5h script intent), the fallback fires ~07:45, waking the agent prematurely at 08:45 UTC when the market is still 4h45min from op

nextFallbackMin=3 vs 6.5h script fallback: potential premature wake

Current watcher reports nextFallbackMin=3 but wake_script_source passes fallbackMs = 6.5 * 3600_000. If the fallback is genuinely 3 minutes, the agent will wake prematurely before 13:30 UTC market open, burning a wake without a trade. The watcher re-arms correctly each time, so this may cause a harm

Verify armWatcher is receiving the full 6.5h fallbackMs. If nextFallbackMin=3 is a live countdown, add an assertion/log in the wake handler to confirm fallback duration on arm.

settled_deals_detail=[] / metrics.settled_deals='not-indexed'

Swing-nikita has no settled deals yet (expected — still in setup phase), but the 'not-indexed' status means even future deals won't appear in the observer's data until indexing is fixed. This makes post-trade analysis blind.

Ensure swing-nikita's address is registered in the deal indexer the same way lp-maker-matheus is (all 24 of LP-Maker's deals appear correctly).

Vulture-Andrew

tokens approved so they can be traded/baited; rebalance buys needed because all non-USDC tokens sit at ~8% floor with no

rebalance-fill / US-hours-open / binary-near-expiry / takeable-edge

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; watcher.nextFallbackMin=null. Single lifetime wake at 06-08T19:12 executed successfully (6 LP-Maker fills, $92.39 PnL) but no watcher was set up to restart the agent afterward. 686min of silence follows.

MISSING: no watcher exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing fires this agent ever again without manual restart

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

Sole fill counterparty for all 6 lifetime deals; fills baited basket buy intents near oracle mid; currently alive and posting BTC swap

Posts delivered swap intents vulture could theoretically take if mispriced, but rebalancer is itself crashed

Posts swap intents on dislocation fades; brief revival 2min ago but re-crashed immediately

wake_script_source=null — no watcher file exists at all; the agent has no mechanism to wake up, scan for mispricings, or restart after a successful session

No fallback timer; no scheduled cadence; completely dark after the single 06-08T19:12 execution

No watcher exists — agent cannot self-restart

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; nextFallbackMin=null. After a successful single-session execution ($92.39 PnL, 6 deals), the agent went dark because no watcher was initialized. 686min of silence follow.

Write a current.ts watcher for vulture-andrew: poll book every 5–10min for (a) swap intents >1% off oracle mid, (b) binaries >90% decided not yet settled; arm on any match; 60min unconditional fallback. Deploy and verify armed=true.

Baited-intent strategy needs post-fill re-arm logic

The 06-08T19:12 wake posted intents, LP-Maker filled all 6, and the session ended cleanly — but no re-arm followed. A vulture that only wakes once per deployment is not a vulture.

The watcher's post-fill callback (or fallback timer) should re-arm immediately after any fills settle, so the agent can post fresh baited intents in the next book window.

wallet-address frequency (10/12 agents addressed)

HUB QUOTES EXPIRING UNWATCHED

BLOCKED — Lior bid ~$63,234 vs LP-Maker ask ~$63,519; $285 gap; both armed, 0 fi

Option-Writer-Matheus ⇄ LP-Maker-Matheus; Momentum-Nikita → LP-Maker-Matheus

ACTIVE — 7 Option-Writer/LP-Maker swap fills; Momentum signal crossed 2pp thresh

DORMANT — 6 fills in single 06-08T19:12 session ($92.39 PnL); armed (nextFallbac

PENDING — signal found (sAAPL -1.69% dislocation); correctly deferring to US mar

FROZEN — intents #32 (BTC<$64k, oracle $63,457) and #89 (ETH<$1700, oracle $1,65

LIVE — Deal #3 active; Bear-Yosher BELOW bet ~1.9% ITM; Mimic took ABOVE side us

LP-Maker-Matheus watcher currently down (armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null) after completing its recover

Six open swap quotes (ETH/BTC/SSV pairs) expire in ~57–59min with no auto-repost; the sole settlement hub (29/30 swap de

Watcher state: armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null, pidAlive=false; 6 LP-Maker quotes visible in open book each timestamped 57–59min TTL; 29 of 30 settled deals in recent history route through LP-Maker

Option-Taker-Matheus permanently uninitialized (armed=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes ever)

Option-Writer-Matheus's entire option pipeline has 0 viable counterparties; Engine 2 monitoring entered at W21 produces

Option-Taker: $0.15 lifetime spend (bootstrap only), null wake script, 0 wakes; Option-Writer: 6 historical option intents all expired unfilled (0xd5, 0xe6, 0xf3, 258, 272, 0x11d); all 12 Option-Write

No taker-side agent exists in the fleet for Polymarket-Ljuba's ITM binary bets

Intents #32 and #89 unfilled 695+ min despite both being in-the-money; BinaryBet funnel conversion near-zero; rational o

BTC oracle $63,457 < $64k strike (intent #32, 61.7%); ETH oracle $1,651 < $1,700 strike (intent #89, 58.8%); 1 BinaryBet settled total (Bear-Yosher/Mimic-Ljuba only); both Polymarket intents expire 16

Rebalancer-Lior implied BTC bid (~$63,234) trails LP-Maker BTC ask (~$63,519) by ~$285

Zero BTC swaps settled across 2 clean Lior wakes despite both agents armed and live; gap narrowed from ~$416 last cycle

Lior intent #316: 7 USDC → 0.0001107 BTC; LP-Maker ask derived from open quote; no other active BTC sell-side agent in fleet

Mimic-Ljuba uses hardcoded FAIR_PROB=0.5 flat prior instead of oracle-calibrated probability

Agent took BTC>$65k side at oracle $63,383 (w5 cited true fair ~10–15%), producing a spurious '+22pp edge' and locking i

w5 wake log: 'above $65k in 24h' taken with FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded; agent's own w5 text cited true probability ~10–15%; Deal #3 live and taker-side deep OTM

LP-Maker hub watcher down — 6 quotes expire in ~57min, no fallback

LP-Maker-Matheus (29/30 swap deals, sole liquidity hub) shows armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null after completing its recovery wake. Six open quotes (ETH/BTC/SSV pairs) expire in ~57–59min. Without re-arm, the entire swap market loses its only maker and all dependent agents (Rebalancer-Lior, Momentum-Nikita, Swing-Nikita, Arb-Hunter-Tom, Vulture-Andrew) lose their counterparty.

Watcher: armed=false, nextFallbackMin=null, pidAlive=false; 6 open quotes in book with 57–59min TTL; LP-Maker involved in 29/30 settled deals this cycle

Re-arm LP-Maker-Matheus watcher immediately and add nextFallbackMin guard (e.g. 30min) to prevent silent death between wakes

Option market doubly frozen — Writer paused at Engine 2, Taker never initialized

Option-Taker-Matheus has never been initialized (null wake script, 0 wakes, $0.15 bootstrap spend). Option-Writer-Matheus correctly paused Engine 2 at W21 after 6 consecutive option expiries but has nextFallbackMin=null — no fallback guard if Engine 2 event trigger stalls. Supply and demand simultaneously absent: 0 option intents open, 0 option takers.

Option-Taker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null; Option-Writer W21 state: ENGINE 2 monitoring, 0 open option intents; Option-Writer nextFallbackMin=null; all 12 Option-Writer lifetime settled deals are Engine-1 swaps

Initialize Option-Taker-Matheus with a wake script (highest leverage unblock); add nextFallbackMin (~240min) to Option-Writer to prevent silent Engine 2 stall

Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcode corrupts all BinaryBet edge calculations

Mimic-Ljuba's hasEdge() uses a flat 0.5 prior regardless of oracle price vs strike distance. At w5 (oracle $63,383 vs $65k strike) the true fair was ~10–15% per agent's own log, yet a '+22pp edge' was reported and Deal #3 taken. Every BinaryBet analysis from this agent is systematically biased until fixed.

w5 log: 'above $65k in 24h' taken at oracle $63,383; FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcoded in wake script source; agent's own w5 cited true probability ~10–15%; Deal #3 (Bear-Yosher) live, taker-side deep OTM

Replace FAIR_PROB=0.5 with oracle-distance-adjusted probability in Mimic-Ljuba hasEdge(); reject bets where oracle is already well beyond strike in the unfavorable direction

Vulture-Andrew armed but wake_script_source=null — armed state likely ephemeral

Vulture-Andrew shows armed=true, nextFallbackMin=86, pidAlive=false — classified as alive and waiting per watcher state. However, wake_script_source=null means no persistent watcher script exists. The armed state likely reflects external intervention. If the fallback fires without a script to execute, the agent returns to its 686min silent baseline.

wake_script_source=null; watcher: armed=true, nextFallbackMin=86, pidAlive=false; 686min silence after single 06-08T19:12 session (6 LP-Maker fills, $92.39 PnL lifetime)

Write a persistent watcher script for Vulture-Andrew — single session proved the strategy works ($92.39 PnL, 6 fills); without a script the agent cannot self-restart after each wake

Option-Writer-Matheus Engine 2 monitoring has no fallback guard

Option-Writer has pidAlive=true but nextFallbackMin=null. Engine 1 (swaps) is unaffected at 12/12 deals and $16.99 PnL, but Engine 2 — which entered monitoring mode 124min ago — has no safety net if its event trigger stalls or never fires.

Watcher: armed=true, nextFallbackMin=null, pidAlive=true; Engine 2 monitoring state entered W21 (~124min ago); 0 Engine 2 option intents posted since

Add nextFallbackMin (~240min) to Option-Writer watcher to ensure Engine 2 fires even if event trigger stalls

Fleet revival confirmed — 10/12 agents armed, SDK epidemic appears resolved

10 of 12 agents now show armed=true with positive nextFallbackMin, versus ~3/12 estimated last cycle. Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Bear-Yosher, Arb-Hunter-Tom, Momentum-Nikita all revived. Only LP-Maker-Matheus (between wakes, quotes live) and Option-Taker-Matheus (never initialized) show armed=false.

Armed with fallback: arb-hunter-tom (28min), bear-yosher (200min), mimic-ljuba (706min), momentum-nikita (169min), polymarket-ljuba (731min), rebalancer-lior (359min), stacker-massimo (381min), swing-nikita (386min), vulture-andrew (86min);

Monitor LP-Maker re-arm before ~57min quote expiry; no fleet action required for revival itself

Re-arm LP-Maker-Matheus watcher before 6 open quotes expire (~57min) and add nextFallbackMin guard — sole swap hub (29/30 deals), currently armed=false with no fallback

Initialize Option-Taker-Matheus with a wake script — option market doubly frozen (Writer paused Engine 2, Taker never started); highest-leverage single unblock for the option pipeline

Fix Mimic-Ljuba FAIR_PROB=0.5 hardcode — replace with oracle-calibrated probability to stop systematically mispriced BinaryBet takes (Deal #3 already locked in as likely loss)

Write a persistent watcher script for Vulture-Andrew — $92.39 PnL from single session proves strategy viability, but 686min silence follows each wake without a self-sustaining script

Major reversal vs last run ('HUB HOLDS, FLEET HOLLOW'): at least 5 agents previously flagged in prior summaries as crashed (rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew, bear-yosher, arb-hunter-tom) now show armed=true, pidAlive=true — the SDK epidemic appears to have broken; only option-taker-m

Mass watcher revival: 5 agents whose prior summaries described them as crashed now show armed=true/pidAlive=true — verify each recovered cleanly (self-restart vs external intervention) before creditin

LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole settled-deal hub: all 25 recent settled deals route through it; Vulture-Andrew just posted 4 open intents (7.95/7.35 USDC each) that could cross LP-Maker's fresh quotes im

Funnel conversion at 7.7% (25/323): BinaryBet segment near-zero — Polymarket-Ljuba's intents #32 and #89 have sat unfilled 695min despite both being ITM (BTC ~$63,457 < $64k; ETH ~$1,651 < $1,700)

Option-Taker-Matheus is the sole confirmed-dead agent (armed=false, pidAlive=false, never woken, $0 spend) — Option-Writer's option pipeline has 0 open intents this cycle, so the pairing is doubly sta

Option-Writer-Matheus has pidAlive=true but nextFallbackMin=null — no fallback guard; if event triggers stall, it will never self-recover

Prior summary said crashed mid-W11; current watcher shows armed=true, pidAlive=true, fallback in 6min — did it self-restart or was it externally kicked, and did its latest wake attempt any arb on Polymarket-Ljuba's two ITM BinaryBets (BTC<$

Prior summary called it 716min crashed; now armed=true, last wake 34min ago, 1 open BinaryBet (4/2.15 USDC, expires ~28min). Confirm the recovery mechanism, determine whether the open BinaryBet is Bear's post or a take, and assess whether t

LP posted 12 fresh intents after the repost cycle; many show 0–2min expiry in the book snapshot. Did the latest wake (27min ago) repost again before expiry, and do Vulture-Andrew's 4 open intents (7.95/7.35 USDC for SSV/BTC/sAAPL/sMSFT) cro

816min since last wake; the Bear-Yosher BinaryBet is still 'live' (not settled). With BTC ~$63,457 vs the implied ~$65k strike and Bear-Yosher's bet expiring in ~28min, is Mimic holding the losing ABOVE side? What does Mimic's 719min fallba

W2 (69min ago) found no momentum signal (ETH vs BTC gap <2pp). With nextFallbackMin=182, Step 2 should check: has the relative-return gap between any two tracked assets widened past 2pp since W2, and is Nikita's current cadence appropriate

19th+ consecutive dead cycle — armed=false, pidAlive=false. Option-Writer has 0 open options right now. Confirm there is literally nothing for this agent to take even if it were alive, and identify the concrete first step (external restart

pidAlive=true but nextFallbackMin=null — no fallback guard configured. Engine 1 was paused at W21; confirm whether Engine 2 (option posting) is active and whether any option intent was successfully posted since W21, and flag the no-fallback

695min since last wake, 744min to next fallback. Intents #32 (BTC<$64k, 61.7%) and #89 (ETH<$1700, 58.8%) have sat unfilled despite both being ITM now. Is the counterparty absence structural (no agent has the ABOVE conviction + capital to t

Prior summary confirmed dead at 798min (armed=false, pidAlive=false); now armed=true, 1 open intent (7 USDC → 0.0001107 BTC, implied ~$63,348/BTC, expires 28min). LP-Maker's BTC ask dropped to ~$63,519 last cycle — has the spread closed eno

Prior summary called it 646min crashed; now armed=true, last wake 28min ago, 1 open intent showing as '0.25 USDC → 0.25 USDC BinaryBet' in the book — this looks wrong for a USDC→sNVDA DCA mission. Confirm what Stacker actually posted and wh

W2 fired 62min ago, collected sample 2/3, re-armed with nextFallbackMin=5 — the 3rd sample wake is imminent. Confirm W3 fires cleanly, and once the 3-sample baseline is complete, does any asset show a dislocation large enough for Swing's fi

Prior summary said dead 686min with wake_script_source=null; now armed=true, last wake 23min ago, 4 open intents (7.95 USDC × 3 for SSV/BTC/sAAPL; 7.35 USDC for sMSFT, all 33–34min left). How did it recover? Are these 4 intents priced to fi

Identify what broke the SDK epidemic and caused mass watcher revival this cycle — 5 agents went from armed=false to armed=true; document the trigger (SDK fix, external restart, platform event) so the

option-taker-matheus: externally restart the watcher — it is the only agent with armed=false/pidAlive=false and has never woken; coordinate with option-writer-matheus to post a fresh option immediatel

option-writer-matheus: add a fallback timer (nextFallbackMin) — currently pidAlive=true but nextFallbackMin=null means a stalled event trigger produces a permanently silent agent with no self-recovery

Check Vulture-Andrew's 4 open intents (7.95/7.35 USDC for SSV/BTC/sAAPL/sMSFT, 33–34min left) against LP-Maker-Matheus's current live quotes — if spreads cross, a same-cycle fill cluster is available

Monitor Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba BinaryBet resolution in ~28min: BTC ~$63,457 is below the apparent ~$65k strike, putting Mimic (ABOVE side) at risk of loss — confirm positions and resolution oracle