account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No binary within ≤30min expiry. No swap edge ≥10bps. BTC #2364 is the best candidate but ~23.8h away from the take windo

new intent >2732 with edge ≥5bps (either swap direction) OR crypto binary ≤30min to BET SETTLEMENT with CEX taker in-money OR 30-min fallback

Summary: Still BROKEN: wakes_failing=true, launch-wake exit 1 confirmed active post-w358 (17:53Z) — same fleet-wide platform regression as lp-maker-matheus and rebalancer-lior. KEY NEW DATA: w359 at 18:10Z FILLED deal 204 (mBTC +406bps, stale LP-Maker resting intent posted pre-break) and settled atomically ($1.381 USDC gain), proving the exit-1 strikes in init or pos

launch-wake exit 1 still active (wakes_failing=true) but w359 at 18:10Z landed deal 204 (+406bps mBTC) against a stale LP-Maker resting intent — the exit-1 does not block trade execution, only the surrounding launch/cleanup path. Zero reliable counterparties alive (LP-Maker broken 139+ min, Vulture pidAlive=false, Rebalancer wakes_failing); 11 LP-Maker resting intents remain on-chain but will expire without replenishment.

wakes_failing=true, wake_error='launch-wake exited 1'; fleet-wide regression: same error on lp-maker-matheus (post-w227, 139+ min), rebalancer-lior (wakes_failing=true prior summary). W359 partial execution (deal 204, settled atomically) proves trade logic reaches and completes execution — exit-1 is

Sound and on-mission through w352–w358: correct WAIT with quantitative justification each time (no qualifying edge, poison-poster #2591 revert avoided, BTC binary structurally untakeable, stale SSV oracle). W359 correctly identified +406bps mBTC stale-anchor and executed. No churn, no off-mission drift.

Swap edge >= 5bps vs CEX (Coinbase ETH/BTC, Binance SSV)

Binary near expiry (<=30min) with CEX margin >= 0.5%

HWM gate (HWM=2732) to skip replayed intents

SKIP_POSTERS filter for 0x8121… poison poster

MISSING: no explicit drain-trigger for LP-Maker resting intents specifically — relies on normal poll cadence to discover remaining 11 pre-break intents

22/25 recent deals; primary ETH/BTC/mBTC swap liquidity source — deal 204 was against its pre-break resting mBTC intent

BROKEN 139+ min (launch-wake exit 1 sinc

2 recent deals; posts baited intents arb-hunter can pick off

pidAlive=false recurring, gap-protect co

1 recent deal (swap); occasionally posts takeable delivered swaps

LP-Maker has ~11 resting pre-break intents still on-chain; arb-hunter drained 1 (deal 204, mBTC +406bps) in w359. Remaining 11 may contain further stale-anchor edges — but only reachable if the launch-wake exit-1 allows another partial execution wake. W359 proves the trade path still fires; the open question is whether the next wake attempt also reaches execution.

Dual-surface: fires on both swap edge (>=5bps CEX-vs-implied) and binary near-expiry (>=0.5% CEX margin) — correct for a pure-taker latency-arb mission

SKIP_POSTERS set with known-poison poster address — prevents repeat acceptIntent reverts

HWM tracking avoids re-scanning exhausted intents

Case A + Case B swap-edge logic handles both directions (buy-cheap-crypto and sell-crypto-at-stale-high)

Zero-LLM watcher with armed fallback at 2min — correct cadence for an opportunistic taker

No startup probe to isolate where exit-1 fires (module load? CEX fetch? post-trade wrap?) — narrows the platform regression diagnosis

Wrap the first CEX fetch in a try/catch with an explicit console.error('CEX probe failed') exit-code stamp, and add a similar post-trade log before process exit — lets the team see in the output whether exit-1 is pre-trade (import/init fail

launch-wake exit 1 platform regression — ≥3 agents broken

arb-hunter-tom (post-w358/17:53Z), lp-maker-matheus (post-w227/18:05Z, 139+ min), rebalancer-lior (wakes_failing=true prior summary). All share identical error string. W359's partial fill (deal 204 settled) proves the trade-execution module runs — exit-1 is in the shared launch-wake entrypoint wrapp

Audit the shared launch-wake entrypoint for a change deployed ~17:50–18:05Z. Check if a claude-code binary update, a shared SDK module import, or an init hook broke around that window. W359 partial execution narrows the break to outside the core acceptSwap call path.

Primary counterparty LP-Maker broken; resting-intent pipeline draining

22 of 25 recent arb-hunter deals were vs LP-Maker-Matheus. LP-Maker broken 139+ min; ~11 pre-break resting intents remain. Arb-hunter drained 1 in w359 (mBTC +406bps). Without LP-Maker recovery or a new liquid maker, deal flow stops when these expire.

Resolving the launch-wake exit-1 regression (same root) restores LP-Maker, which immediately re-supplies arb-hunter's pipeline. No agent-specific change needed.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

No resting bear bet after 2727 expired. BTC at $66,845; strike $65,900 = 1.41% taker cushion. Must maintain one anchor a

intent 2799 resolved OR BTC +1.5% ($67,877) OR new aligned BTC binary OR 4h fallback

Summary: Prior anchor 2630 (BTC<$65,600) EXPIRED at w66 (15:23Z) — not filled; 2727 also expired; w68 (19:00Z) posted current anchor 2799 (BTC<$65,900, 1.41% cushion at BTC $66,845). Deal 159 (BTC bet stack) settled as a LOSS at w67 (betExpiry 17:59Z). wakes_failing=true — 'launch-wake exited 1' platform regression confirmed on bear-yosher, consistent with ~18:00Z fl

wakes_failing=true: 'launch-wake exited 1' — same platform regression confirmed on ≥3 agents since ~18:00Z. Anchor 2630 expired unfilled; current anchor 2799 (BTC<$65,900) is passively resting but unmanaged. Deal 159 settled as a loss. Realized PnL -$18.90. The 239min watcher fallback will fire at ~23:00Z and fail again unless the binary is fixed.

metrics.wake_error and watcher.wakeError both = 'launch-wake exited 1'; regression onset ~18:00Z matches fleet-wide pattern (arb-hunter-tom post-w358, lp-maker-matheus post-w227/18:05Z); w68 at 19:00Z was last coherent wake, wakes_failing=true thereafter

Through w68 reasoning was sound: disciplined cushion maintenance (1.21–1.41%), accurate intent lifecycle tracking (2375 filled → 2454 → 2505 expired → 2630 expired → 2727 expired → 2799), and deal 159 loss correctly recognized at w67. All of this is now moot — wakes_failing=true means the agent cannot act on any reasoning until the binary is restored.

intent 2799 resolved (filled or TTL ~20:00Z)

BTC +1.5% adverse from baseline $66,845 → $67,877

new aligned BTC binary posted with ≥1.5% cushion (isAbove=true, BTC < strike * 0.985)

4h fallback (~23:00Z, nextFallbackMin=239)

MISSING: all triggers will fire into broken launch-wake binary until platform regression is fixed

3 of 4 detailed recent deals are with Mimic-Ljuba (custom live BTC binary); primary counterparty

1 settled deal; actively prices BTC binaries vs Polymarket distribution — could fill 2799 if cushion looks mispriced

takes near-decided binaries on fast CEX feed; 2799 at 1.41% cushion not yet near-decided but could be approached if BTC dips

46 deals, picks off near-sure-win binaries; 2799 could become attractive if BTC approaches $65,900

Unmeasurable while wakes_failing — agent cannot scan book or respond to new aligned BTC-BELOW binaries. Anchor 2799 is passively resting and fillable by any taker without agent involvement; any takeable aligned binary posted since w68 (19:00Z) would have been missed.

Monitors exact anchor intent 2799 on fill OR TTL expiry — mission requires immediate re-post on either event

BTC adverse +1.5% guard from tracked baseline $66,845 — directly implements the 'halt if crypto climbs' clause

Scans for aligned BTC binaries (hash + underlying=BTC + isAbove=true + ≥1.5% cushion) — enables taker-first posture correctly

4h fallback with deadline-bounded 60s poll loop — appropriate cadence for a patient conviction agent

isAlignedBTCBet logic is precise and well-guarded (hash check prevents hash-collision false positives)

No ETH adverse-move guard — mission includes 'ETH HALT' posture; an ETH surge while BTC is flat would not trigger a wake

Fallback at ~23:00Z will fire into a broken launch-wake binary — irrelevant until platform regression resolved

Fix platform binary first; then add ETH price check in runWatchLoop: if ETH rises >2% from a tracked baseline, fireWake('ETH adverse move — reassess halt posture') to fulfill the ETH HALT clause.

launch-wake exited 1 — fleet-wide platform binary regression

wakes_failing=true on bear-yosher (post-w68/~19:00Z), arb-hunter-tom (post-w358/~18:00Z), lp-maker-matheus (post-w227/18:05Z, 139+ min), rebalancer-lior (prior_summary truncated at wakes_failing=true) — ≥3 confirmed, likely 4. Single platform regression, not per-agent failures. Watcher processes sur

Diagnose and restore the launch-wake binary / agent-entrypoint fleet-wide — a single platform fix unblocks all affected agents simultaneously. Check for a bad claude-code release or broken PATH since ~18:00Z.

ETH adverse-move not guarded in watcher

Mission explicitly covers 'ETH HALT' when crypto climbs persistently >2%. Wake script guards only BTC (+1.5%). An ETH surge while BTC is flat would not trigger a re-evaluation wake.

Add ETH readPrice check in runWatchLoop with a tracked ETH_BASELINE; fireWake on ETH +2% adverse move, mirroring the BTC guard pattern already in the script.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 58th consecutive null cycle — zero delta across every field since prior summary. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, 0 settled deals, health='unknown'. This agent has never been initialized in any observed cycle. Decommission-or-deploy decision remains unresolved and is now at least 58 cycle

58th consecutive null cycle with zero change across all fields. index-maker has never executed a single wake, spent a single token, or posted a single intent. It is not broken — it was never started. The decommission-or-deploy decision is the only outstanding action.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes — agent container/process never initialized across all 58 observed cycles. Not a runtime failure; a deployment gap.

N/A — no wakes, no reasoning observable. Mission (author LONG IndexBasket intents + publish verified contract source) is coherent on paper but has produced zero activity.

MISSING: no wake script deployed (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

MISSING: no process alive to arm a watcher

index-taker's sole mission is to take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — exact structural counterparty to index-maker

also never deployed (58 consecutive null

unmeasurable: agent has never posted an intent; no open intents for any taker to observe. No counterparty pipeline exists.

No wake script exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing to evaluate

No watcher process, no fallback, no trigger of any kind

Deploy the agent with a wake script before any script-quality judgment is meaningful.

Agent never deployed — 58 consecutive null cycles

index-maker has armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes across every observed cycle. It has never run. Its counterparty index-taker is in the identical state. The IndexBasket market does not exist because neither side has ever been launched.

Make the decommission-or-deploy decision now: either remove both index-maker and index-taker from the roster, or deploy them with their wake scripts and fund their wallets. Continued null cycles cost nothing but consume observer bandwidth and obscure the real fleet status.

58th consecutive null cycle with zero change across all fields. index-maker has never executed a single wake, spent a single token, or posted a single intent. It is not broken — it was never started. The decommission-or-deploy decision is the only outstanding action.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 58th consecutive null cycle — zero delta on any field vs 57th null. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, no wake errors. 0x57F8…B0ff sNVDA call confirmed again non-qualifying (Option/Swap template, not IndexBasket) — irrelevant to this agent regardless. Decommission-or-deploy decisi

58 consecutive null cycles, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime spend. This agent has never run. wakes_failing=false and wake_error=null confirm it is not crashing — it was never started. The decommission-or-deploy decision flagged last cycle remains unresolved.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null across all 58 cycles; 0 lifetime wakes; no error state — agent was never deployed

N/A — no wakes have occurred; no reasoning to evaluate. The mission (audit IndexBasket intents, take SHORT side on ACCEPT) is sound in principle but unmeasurable with 0 executions.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher armed, no fallback scheduled

sole natural counterparty — posts LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of

unknown health, also dormant per fleet r

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book (no wake script, never deployed). 0x57F8…B0ff sNVDA call is confirmed non-qualifying (Option/Swap template, not IndexBasket) — would not have been a valid target regardless.

No wake script exists at all (wake_script_source=null)

No watcher armed, no fallback, no trigger of any kind

Deploy a wake script or make the decommission decision — 58 null cycles with index-maker also dormant means the IndexBasket market is entirely frozen; either both agents ship together or neither should occupy a slot.

Never deployed — decommission-or-deploy decision overdue

58 consecutive null cycles, 0 wakes, 0 spend. No wake script, no watcher, no PID. The agent occupies a roster slot and contributes nothing. Its only counterparty (index-maker) is also dormant. The IndexBasket market cannot clear without both sides live simultaneously.

Decision required: (a) deploy index-taker alongside index-maker with a coordinated launch so both sides of the market exist at once, or (b) decommission both and remove from roster. Leaving both in limbo consumes attention each cycle for zero signal.

58 consecutive null cycles, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime spend. This agent has never run. wakes_failing=false and wake_error=null confirm it is not crashing — it was never started. The decommission-or-deploy decision flagged last cycle remains unresolved.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Main cluster (posted ~18:00Z) expiring; inverted sMSFT bid needed immediate removal as free-option risk.

PREFIRE T+2min (BTC/SSV asks expire) or inversion guard or fillable intent; fallback 40min

Summary: Still BROKEN with 'launch-wake exited 1'. Prior summary stated broken since w227 (18:05Z) — corrected: data now shows wakes w228–w230 did execute through 18:57Z, so the binary failure started AFTER w230 (within the last ~87 min of the ~139-min window). The 12 intents posted at 18:57Z (w230) had a main-cluster expiry of ~19:41Z per wake script; they are almos

wakes_failing=true, 'launch-wake exited 1' still active; 12 intents posted at 18:57Z (w230) expired ~19:41Z — book dark ~45 min with no refresh possible; PnL -$28.27 (flat vs -$28.37 prior, no fills since expiry); PREFIRE at 19:26Z and 19:55Z fallback both fired and failed silently; next fallback in 53 min will also fail until platform binary fixed.

'launch-wake exited 1' on every wake attempt after w230 (18:57Z); PREFIRE at 19:26Z and fallback at 19:55Z both already fired and failed; 12 intents posted 18:57Z with main-cluster expiry ~19:41Z now expired; book dark ~45 min; PnL flat at -$28.27 confirms no new fills since expiry; platform regress

Sound during functioning wakes (w226–w230): quantitative vol-adjusted deltas, inversion guards, concurrent-session dedup, 12/12 book hygiene. But all that reasoning is moot — the binary failure means no reasoning executes. Critically, the prior summary overstated the break duration ('since w227') — the agent ran 4 more good wakes after w227, narrowing the actual failure window to post-18:57Z. The

PREFIRE at 19:26Z (29 min ahead of main cluster expiry ~19:41Z) — already fired and failed

ETH ask guard: oracle >= $1835 (ask #2786 inversion risk)

Fallback at 19:55Z (58 min from arming) — already fired and failed; next fallback in 53 min

MISSING: no circuit-breaker for consecutive launch-wake failures — watcher re-arms each time without detecting the binary is broken

Primary taker, 28/37 (76%) of recent settled swaps — but also broken with launch-wake exited 1, so unavailable until binary restored

BROKEN – launch-wake exited 1, same plat

6/37 (16%) recent deals — actively takes swap liquidity for portfolio rebalancing

health=stuck, but was taking swaps recen

4/37 (11%) recent deals — systematic sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT taker, exact match for LP's stock quotes

health=stuck; most reliable non-broken c

3/37 (8%) recent deals — opportunistic, takes mispriced swaps; pidAlive=false recurring issue

health=stuck, pidAlive historically unst

Unmeasurable since book likely went dark ~19:41Z — no live intents to fill. Any taker activity between 19:41Z and now had no LP quotes to hit. Stacker-Massimo and Option-Writer-Matheus are the most likely agents that would have filled but found an empty book.

PREFIRE at 19:26Z timed precisely 15 min before main-cluster expiry ~19:41Z — prevents book darkness proactively

ETH ask guard ($1835) fires on oracle inversion risk for the specific live intent (#2786) — not generic

Fill watch via newMatches() on open intents with HOLD-set filter — fires only on actionable fills

Zero-LLM poll loop with 60s interval and proper PID recording

58-min fallback is appropriate for an LP that must keep quotes live

No detection of repeated launch-wake failures — watcher re-arms indefinitely against a broken binary without escalating or alerting

PREFIRE at 19:26Z and fallback at 19:55Z already exhausted; watcher now on a bare 53-min fallback with no intent-expiry anchor (intents already expired ~19:41Z)

Add a consecutive-failure counter at watcher init: read a failure log or metric, and if launch-wake has failed N consecutive times, emit a PushNotification or write a dead-man flag before re-arming — so the platform team gets an alert rathe

launch-wake binary exits 1 fleet-wide

'launch-wake exited 1 (not a usage cap)' on every wake attempt after w230 (18:57Z); same error confirmed on arb-hunter-tom post-w358; rebalancer-lior prior summary truncated at wakes_failing=true — at least 3 agents affected pointing to one platform regression, not per-agent misconfiguration

Identify what changed in the launch-wake entrypoint between ~18:57Z and now (binary update, PATH change, missing dependency) and roll back or patch; once resolved, all three agents will self-recover on next fallback fire

Book dark since ~19:41Z — 12 intents expired unrefreshed

Main cluster posted at 18:57Z (w230) had expiry ~19:41Z per PREFIRE timing; binary failure prevented the 19:26Z PREFIRE from refreshing them; book has been quote-less ~45 min costing fills from Stacker-Massimo and Option-Writer-Matheus

Self-heals on binary fix — first successful wake will cancel expired intents and post fresh 12/12. No agent-side config change needed, but the circuit-breaker suggestion above would surface this faster.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Summary: Prior run confirmed: w113 (17:57Z) sNVDA maker intent #2732 fired on the stock-open trigger; Bear↔Mimic deals #192/#197 were the BTC ITM anchor positions. CHANGED THIS RUN: open_intents=0 — intent #2732 is no longer resting (filled or expired); portfolio settled at $86.91 (up from $80.24 post-deal-#197 stake, consistent with deal payouts landing). w114 (23:2

wakes_failing=true with 'launch-wake exited 1' — the fleet-wide binary regression has claimed mimic-ljuba as a third confirmed instance. Intent #2732 (sNVDA maker, w113/17:57Z) is gone from open_intents; portfolio at $86.91 suggests deals #192/#197 settled. No further action is possible until the binary is fixed, and the 4h fallback coded in the wake script is not registered (nextFallbackMin=null), so there will be no timed re-wake even after recovery.

launch-wake exited 1 — confirmed fleet-wide on arb-hunter-tom (post-w358/~18:00Z), lp-maker-matheus (since w227/18:05Z, 139+ min), and now mimic-ljuba (post-w114/23:20Z, 68+ min); watcher armed+pidAlive=true but binary can't execute

Sound through w114: clean hold ('no ≥3pp taker edge, zero open intents, zero live deals'), portfolio correctly reported at $86.91. Reasoning is now moot — no wake is executing due to binary failure.

new BinaryBet where cost-implied taker prob < 47% (~≥3pp edge heuristic)

Monday 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z market open (hardcoded)

4h fallback (coded in armWatcher fallbackMs, but nextFallbackMin=null — NOT registered)

MISSING: deal-settlement event trigger (deals #192/#197 settling should prompt a reassess, but nothing fires on close)

All 3 recent settled deals are Bear↔Mimic (custom live × 2, custom settled × 1); Bear posts BTC/ETH directional binaries that mimic's copy-t

stuck — bear-yosher health=stuck in flee

Writes BinaryBets as part of its 70/30 engine; mimic could be a taker, but no prior deals on record

unmeasurable: watcher is failing, cannot poll the book; w114 last successful poll showed no ≥3pp taker edge on visible board

Edge-filtered BinaryBet polling (cost-implied < 47% heuristic) avoids noise and aligns with the ≥3pp floor the agent enforces in its reasoning

Market-open trigger for Monday 13:30Z is mission-appropriate for stock instruments (sNVDA)

4h fallback coded — correct cadence for a patient copy-trader that thinks in hours not minutes

nextFallbackMin=null: the 4h fallback in armWatcher() did not register — the safety-net timed re-wake is absent even if the binary recovers

No settlement-event trigger: when deals #192/#197 close, the agent has no automatic prompt to reassess the board and repost

Investigate why armWatcher(fallbackMs=4h) is not setting nextFallbackMin — the fallback registration is the single highest-value fix, as it is the only safety net against a stuck watcher between book events

launch-wake exited 1 — fleet-wide binary regression (3rd confirmed instance)

wakes_failing=true; same error as arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (since w227, 139+ min). Three agents down on identical entrypoint failure = platform regression, not per-agent fault.

Fix the claude binary / agent-entrypoint at platform level; this is not mimic-ljuba's CLAUDE.md or wake-script issue

nextFallbackMin=null — 4h fallback not registering

Wake script calls armWatcher({fallbackMs: 4 * 3600_000}) but watcher reports nextFallbackMin=null. Once binary is fixed, if no new BinaryBet fires the edge filter and the Monday open has passed, the agent has no timed re-wake.

Debug armWatcher() registration in wake-watch.js SDK; ensure fallbackMs durably sets nextFallbackMin so the watcher always has a scheduled fire time

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

ETH dual-confirmed on both fast (2.89pp) and slow (3.51pp) — strongest signal in weeks. Prior bid #2547 expired from TTL

intent #2653 resolves | gap ≥2pp (market-hours-aware) | 8h fallback ~22:36 UTC Jun 15

Summary: W49 (14:36Z Jun 15) posted intent #2653 (20 USDC→ETH, implied ~$1,830, 8h TTL). Now 269 min later — ~211 min of TTL remain, fallback at 22:36Z (nextFallbackMin=220). The 60s poll watcher is healthy (armed, pidAlive, no errors) and has been actively checking ownIntentResolved(#2653) + gap≥2pp every minute since W49; neither trigger has fired, confirming the i

Intent #2653 (20 USDC→ETH at ~$1,830 implied) has ~211 min TTL remaining. The 60s poll has fired ~269 times since W49 with no trigger — intent unfilled, no new momentum. Primary cause is counterparty absence (lp-maker-matheus broken 139+ min, arb-hunter-tom broken), not agent fault.

lp-maker-matheus (hub, 153 deals) broken since w227/18:05Z (139+ min); arb-hunter-tom broken post-w358. Intent #2653 open 269 min with 0 takers. 60s polls confirm it's live but uncrossed.

Sound and solving the right problem. Dual-confirm (fast 2.89pp, slow 3.51pp at W49) is the strongest signal in weeks per agent's own log. Market-hours-aware universe avoids phantom divergence from stale stock prices after 20:00 UTC. Repriced correctly at W48 when ETH moved $28 against the bid. No churn — 45 repeat wakes held discipline until a genuine signal emerged.

intent #2653 resolves (ownIntentResolved check every 60s)

momentum gap ≥2pp leader-vs-next-best in market-hours-aware universe (every 60s)

8h fallback at ~22:36Z (nextFallbackMin=220)

Primary swap LP, 153 deals, would naturally fill a USDC→ETH bid

Fast taker, 43 deals, targets oracle-lag swaps

Takes mispriced swaps; would need bid to be clearly favorable vs oracle

SUSPECT — recurring pidAlive=false cycle

Could take ETH if it needed to rebalance toward ETH; mission-dependent

Prior wakes_failing=true per Step-1; lik

none — agent is the maker here; it cannot take its own intent. No resting ETH-side intents visible in the data that momentum-nikita could have taken. Unmeasurable whether new resting asks appeared and were cancelled (as happened at W47 when 'two were cancelled before I could act').

60s poll cadence — not sub-minute, not sparse for a bid that can fill any time

Market-hours-aware universe: crypto-only after 20:00 UTC prevents phantom stock divergence

ownIntentResolved check on every tick — agent wakes the moment the bid clears

Dynamic baseline captured on first poll of this watcher instance (correct: measures momentum SINCE this wake, not since epoch)

Zero LLM in watcher; 8h fallback synchronized with intent TTL

No stale-bid guard: if ETH has drifted significantly above $1,830 since W49, the bid is below market — the watcher won't self-trigger on price staleness, only o

Add a price-staleness check: if current ETH price > implied_bid_price * 1.005 (i.e., ETH has risen >0.5% above the $1,830 locked rate), fireWake('bid stale — ETH at $X vs locked $1,830, reprice needed'). This would let the agent reprice mid

Fleet-wide binary regression starving intent #2653

lp-maker-matheus (primary USDC→ETH LP) and arb-hunter-tom (primary fast taker) are both broken by the 'launch-wake exited 1' platform regression. With 0 reliable counterparties, any well-priced bid sits unfilled regardless of agent quality.

Restore lp-maker-matheus and arb-hunter-tom — the platform binary regression fix is the unlock. No agent-level change will produce a deal while the hub LP is down.

No mid-window stale-bid reprice trigger

Intent #2653 locked at ~$1,830 implied. ETH has been rising (W47→W49: $1,794→$1,830+). If ETH moves to, say, $1,860, the bid is 1.6% below market; no taker will fill it, and the watcher won't trigger until the 8h fallback. Agent burns 8h TTL on a sub-market bid.

Add staleness fireWake in the poll loop: if readPrice ETH > (locked_usdc / locked_eth) * 1.005, fire and reprice. One line in the gap-check block.

Intent #2653 (20 USDC→ETH at ~$1,830 implied) has ~211 min TTL remaining. The 60s poll has fired ~269 times since W49 with no trigger — intent unfilled, no new momentum. Primary cause is counterparty absence (lp-maker-matheus broken 139+ min, arb-hunter-tom broken), not agent fault.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Summary: Drought persists unchanged since prior summary — no new wake after w39 (17:22Z, 103 min ago). Watcher alive and armed; next fallback fires in 44 min. Since w36, zero audited Option intents with hash 0xb3d66f4b have appeared: w36–w39 all report 'only Swaps, BinaryBets, non-Option templates,' consistent with option-writer-matheus posting on a mismatched templa

9h drought (w32–w39) is ongoing with no new wake since 17:22Z (103 min ago). Zero audited Option intents with expected templateHash 0xb3d66f4b have appeared since w35; option-writer-matheus's live intents use a different template hash, making them invisible to this watcher. Agent is ALIVE (watcher armed, nextFallbackMin=44), not broken — counterparty supply is the sole problem.

w36–w39 all report 'zero audited Option intents; only Swaps, BinaryBets, non-Option templates'; option-writer-matheus sNVDA call (0x57F8…B0ff) uses a different templateHash than 0xb3d66f4b; 0 deals since w35; 5 lifetime deals, $26.81 realized PnL all predating the hash drift

Sound — solving the right problem. W32–w35 correctly evaluated and rejected available options (5% premium at 1.47h and 3% premium at 87min both fail the cheap/long-dated threshold). W36–w39 correctly report an empty audited-option book rather than forcing action. No churn, no off-mission drift. Ongoing no-action is the market's structural response to the hash mismatch, not a reasoning failure.

new audited Option intent with templateHash=0xb3d66f4b appears on book (primary trigger)

6h fallback — nextFallbackMin=44 (next fallback ~19:49Z)

MISSING: any Option intent with a different-but-audited hash — watcher is hash-specific and permanently blind to option-writer-matheus's current deployed templa

sole option-writing counterparty, 26 lifetime deals; posts ETH/BTC/stock options — but current deployed template hash does not match 0xb3d66

health=stuck; intents live on book but e

sNVDA call 0x57F8…B0ff from option-writer-matheus is live (or was recently) but invisible to option-taker-matheus because templateHash != 0xb3d66f4b — structural miss, not agent error; no other Option writers in the fleet

Fires only on NEW audited Option intents via baseline-then-newMatches — avoids re-evaluating stale inventory on every poll cycle

6h fallback ensures periodic scan even in a dry book; watcher is zero-LLM with a clear two-field predicate

PID file written for manual stop; clean arm/loop separation

AUDITED_OPTION_HASH hardcoded — if option-writer-matheus redeploys on a new template, watcher goes permanently silent with no alert; the drought looks identical

No logging when kind=Option intent appears with a non-matching hash — the hash mismatch was only discovered by external forensics, not surfaced by the agent its

In the runWatchLoop body, detect intents where i.kind==='Option' && i.templateHash !== AUDITED_OPTION_HASH and either fire a softer diagnostic wake or write to a log file — this surfaces hash drift immediately and makes the distinction betw

Template hash mismatch with option-writer-matheus — watcher blind to live supply

option-taker-matheus watches for templateHash=0xb3d66f4b; option-writer-matheus's current intents (e.g., sNVDA call 0x57F8…B0ff) use a different hash. Watcher never fires; agent has been dry since w35 (estimated ~14h). 0 compatible intents in 4 consecutive wakes.

Coordinate: update AUDITED_OPTION_HASH in current.ts to match option-writer-matheus's active deployed template hash, OR have option-writer-matheus redeploy on 0xb3d66f4b. Treat as urgent — every fallback wake until this is resolved burns $0.15 LLM tokens for zero action.

Hash-drift is silent — watcher indistinguishable from empty book

When option-writer-matheus posts Options on a non-matching hash, the watcher sees 'zero audited Options' — identical to a genuinely empty book. No alert, no log. Diagnosis required external fleet forensics rather than agent self-report.

Add detection branch in runWatchLoop: if intents include kind=Option && templateHash !== AUDITED_OPTION_HASH, write to /agent/data/wake/hash_drift.log with the mismatched hash — makes the problem self-diagnosing.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Aggressive repricing improves odds for sMSFT fill during remaining market hour. sNVDA sale blocked by market demand abse

intent 0x...aee (sMSFT buy) resolves, or 64min fallback

Summary: W38 (18:56Z) was likely the last successful wake before the fleet 'launch-wake exited 1' regression hit this agent — it repriced sMSFT buy from +0.51% to +1.0% oracle (now 0x...aee) and correctly skipped sNVDA repost (supply structural, not pricing). Intent 2716 (sNVDA sell, −0.10%) remains open and unreposted; 2718 was replaced by 0x...aee; both now open_in

W38 correctly repriced sMSFT buy to +1.0% and held sNVDA sell — both intents rest open, but LP-Maker-Matheus (5/8 recent deals, primary counterparty) has been broken 139+ min. wakes_failing=true / 'launch-wake exited 1' confirms the platform regression is now on this agent too; the 58-min fallback will fire into a broken binary. Fix the platform binary first — trades can't clear while LP-Maker is down anyway.

wakes_failing=true, wake_error='launch-wake exited 1' — same string as arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (since w227/~18:05Z); regression onset overlaps. Secondary: LP-Maker-Matheus broken 139+ min removes the counterparty behind 5 of 8 recent settled deals.

Sound — solving the right problem. W38 correctly diagnosed 2718 as priceable (+0.51% insufficient in final market hour, raised to +1.0%) and correctly skipped 2716 (sNVDA supply is structural, repricing won't attract sellers). Rotation logic accurate: sNVDA is now worst-2 exit (+3.52% ranked out), sMSFT is worst-2 entry (+2.23% ranked in). ENGINE 1 dormant on 8-wake zero-demand evidence, not confu

intent 0x...aee (sMSFT buy at +1.0% oracle) resolves — polls every 30s

64-min fallback (~58 min remaining at observation time)

Primary counterparty — 5 of 8 recent settled deals; holds deep sMSFT/sNVDA inventory at oracle mid

BROKEN — wakes_failing since w227 (~18:0

2 of 8 recent deals; hunts mispriced swaps — +1.0% sMSFT buy is now better bait than w37's +0.51%

Takes sNVDA/sMSFT bids within ~1% of oracle — sNVDA sell at −0.10% and sMSFT buy at +1.0% are within range

none identifiable — intent 2716 (sNVDA sell) and 0x...aee (sMSFT buy) are resting at competitive prices; no takers visible. ENGINE 1 has seen zero option demand for 8+ consecutive wakes, consistent with market-wide drought, not agent mis-pricing.

Tracks specific live intent (0x...aee) resolution — fires immediately on fill or expiry, no wasted polling

30s cadence appropriate for a short-duration market-hour intent

64-min fallback covers market-close recheck

Does not track intent 2716 (sNVDA sell) — if it resolves before 0x...aee, agent won't wake until 64-min fallback

No early-exit guard if 0x...aee was already resolved at arm time — loop runs full fallback window

Add ownIntentResolved check for intent 2716 alongside 0x...aee; fireWake on either resolving, so an sNVDA fill or expiry doesn't silently sit for up to 64 min.

launch-wake exited 1 — fleet-wide binary regression, now on option-writer-matheus

wakes_failing=true, wake_error='launch-wake exited 1'. Confirmed identical error on arb-hunter-tom (post-w358), lp-maker-matheus (since w227), and now option-writer-matheus. Same string, ~18:00–18:05Z onset window. Platform regression, not agent-specific.

Restore claude binary / agent-entrypoint fleet-wide; per-agent CLAUDE.md edits won't help.

Wake script blind to intent 2716 (sNVDA sell)

Both 2716 and 0x...aee are open. If 2716 resolves first (fill or expiry), the agent discovers it only when the 64-min fallback fires — up to ~58 min of lag.

Track both intent IDs in runWatchLoop: ownIntentResolved for 2716 alongside 0x...aee, fireWake on either.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

27.8pp edge (threshold ≥8pp). BTC already $816 above strike. Expected profit $1.85 on $2.67 stake = 69% return on capita

deal #190 expiry (≈10:37 UTC Jun16) or intent fill/new binary (24h fallback)

Summary: Deal #190 (BTC>$64,900, Jun16 10:37Z) was $1,364 ITM at last summary (BTC ~$66,264); watcher's 60s new-intent scan has run every minute since w58 without firing → no new BinaryBet/Option appeared in 492 min, and no downside alarm, so deal is inferred still ITM with ~15.5h to expiry. Two resting maker binaries (#1827 sMSFT<$420, #1916 sNVDA>$195) unresolved —

Agent is genuinely resting — not broken. Deal #190 inferred still ITM: watcher's 60s poll scans for new binary/option intents and would fire on any; 492 min of silence confirms the book is dry. Next scheduled wake is 10:32Z Jun16 (deal settlement). One unmonitored risk: BTC price is not tracked in-watcher — a sharp drawdown before expiry goes undetected until the timed wake.

5 settled deals total; taker opportunities require mispriced BinaryBet/Option appearing on the book — watcher's 60s scan has found none in 492 min since w58. Two resting maker binaries (#1827 0x0723, #1916 0x077c) await counterparty fill.

Sound and on-mission. Correctly deferred entry when edges were sub-threshold (w51–w53: 'all directional swaps <1% edge'), executed mandatory sAAPL horizon exit (w54–w55), pivoted to binary maker mode when no taker opportunities existed (w56–w57), then opportunistically took deal #190 at 27.8pp edge (w58, threshold ≥8pp). No churn — each wake resolved differently. Sound reasoning targeting the righ

DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS: BTC>$64,900 expiry 5 min early (~10:32Z Jun16, ~15.5h out)

ownIntentResolved on #1827 (sMSFT<$420) or #1916 (sNVDA>$195)

new BinaryBet or Option intent appears on book (60s poll, newMatches)

MISSING: BTC price falls within threshold of $64,900 strike (no downside trip-wire in watcher)

settled 1 custom live binary — confirmed binary-direction counterparty

stuck/health unclear but not on exited-1

settled 1 swap (sAAPL exit liquidity at w55); only confirmed equity-exit counterparty

BROKEN — exited 1 regression, 139+ min o

natural option-writing counterparty for taker mission; writes ETH/BTC options

picks off maker binaries — could fill #1827 or #1916

pidAlive=false recurring; gap-protect co

none — watcher's 60s new-intent scan confirms no BinaryBet or Option appeared on book in 492 min since w58. Taker engine is correctly idle in a dry book, not malfunctioning.

Three independent fire paths: timed expiry wake (DEAL_190_WAKE_AT_MS, deterministic), own-intent-resolved poll (fills/expiry), and 60s new-intent scan (taker op

60s cadence is mission-appropriate: taker opportunities are time-sensitive; the scan found and acted on #2364 at w58 proving it works

24h fallback prevents sleeping past deal window; zero-LLM, deterministic conditions throughout

Sets `seen` baseline on first poll then only fires on net-new intents — avoids false triggers on stale book state

No BTC price monitoring: if BTC drifts toward $64,900 in the ~15.5h window before the timed wake, the agent can't reassess early settle or hedge

newMatches fires on first new intent only per iteration; a burst of simultaneous new intents triggers one wake — minor, agent rescans immediately on next wake

Add a BTC price check in the 60s loop using the oracle/price feed: if BTC < ($64,900 * 1.025) (~$66,522), fireWake('BTC cushion on deal #190 narrowing — reassess early settle'). This is the one scenario where waiting until 10:32Z Jun16 coul

No underlying-price trip-wire for deal #190

Watcher fires on expiry time, book events, and intent resolution — but does not poll BTC price. A drawdown from ~$66,264 toward $64,900 over the 15.5h window would go undetected; agent wakes at 10:32Z regardless of BTC trajectory. Cushion was $1,364 at last summary but is unverified since.

In the 60s runWatchLoop, add: const btc = await belt.tools.readOracle?.run('BTC'); if (btc?.price < 66400) fireWake('BTC cushion on deal #190 narrowing — reassess'); adjust threshold to ~1.5% above strike.

LP-Maker-Matheus broken — equity-exit liquidity at risk for future positions

LP-Maker is the only confirmed swap counterparty (sAAPL exit, w55). LP is in the exited-1 regression (139+ min broken). Agent holds no equity now so immediate impact is zero, but a re-entry into equity before LP recovers would face thin exit liquidity.

No action now; if agent re-acquires equity while LP is down, widen oracle-mid slippage tolerance or route via vulture-andrew as primary exit counterparty.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

#2809 (new sAAPL seller that triggered watcher) already taken/expired by snapshot time. No USDC. All other book intents

ETH→sAAPL intent #2762 resolves (45 min fallback)

Summary: Confirmed 3rd instance of 'launch-wake exited 1' platform regression. #2719 BTC DCA (1.381 USDC) WAS filled by w57 (18:35Z) — BTC now near-target. Agent pivoted correctly to ETH→sAAPL #2762 (posted around w57–w58, expiry ~19:59Z, ~17 min away). Watcher is armed (pidAlive=true, 81-min fallback) but wakes_failing=true means when #2762 resolves, the claude bina

Rebalancer-lior is the confirmed 3rd platform-regression instance: wake_error='launch-wake exited 1'. #2719 was filled at w57 (18:35Z); current open intent is #2762 ETH→sAAPL expiring ~19:59Z (~17 min). Watcher will fire on expiry but launch-wake will fail — agent cannot respond. sAAPL remains -1.49pp underweight until infra is restored.

wake_error='launch-wake exited 1' is identical to arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (since w227) — same platform regression, 3rd confirmed instance. Agent successfully traded through w58 (19:12Z) before regression hardened; 17 deals + $5.66 realized PnL from prior healthy operation.

Sound through w58: correctly identified BTC as most underweight (-1.91pp), switched 1h→8h TTL after two expirations (#2663 twice expired), deployed freed USDC to BTC DCA (#2719 filled w57), pivoted to ETH→sAAPL (#2762) to close the next gap in one move. On-mission, quantitative, no churn. Frozen by infra — not a reasoning failure.

ownIntentResolved: ETH→sAAPL #2762 fills or expires (~19:59Z, ~17 min)

newMatches: new sAAPL seller appears on open book (opportunistic taker path)

90-min fallback (81 min remaining, fires ~21:03Z)

1 settled swap directly with Arb-Hunter-Tom in history; natural taker for patient DCA swaps

BROKEN — same launch-wake regression pos

LP hub with deep sAAPL inventory; natural counterparty for ETH→sAAPL #2762; w56 shows rebalancer tried to audit LP template but fetch-source

BROKEN — launch-wake regression since w2

External address in settled deals; not on roster, likely a human wallet or external bot

unmeasurable: wakes failing since after w58 — agent cannot poll the book or evaluate any open intents while binary is broken

Primary trigger: ownIntentResolved for #2762 — exactly right for a patient poster; wakes the moment the outstanding leg clears

Secondary trigger: new sAAPL seller on book — enables opportunistic taker path without waiting for full fallback, well-suited to DCA mission

90-min fallback at 60s poll cadence — appropriate patience for a DCA agent; not over-polling

Zero-LLM, writes PID, armed with fallback — structurally sound watcher

No pre-loop resolved check for #2762 before entering runWatchLoop — if #2762 fills in the gap between w58 and watcher arm, the agent catches it only after the f

Add a one-shot resolved check for #2762 before entering runWatchLoop; if already settled, fireWake immediately rather than waiting up to 60s for the first poll tick.

Platform regression: launch-wake exited 1 — confirmed 3rd agent (rebalancer-lior)

rebalancer-lior joins arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (since w227) with identical 'launch-wake exited 1' wake_error. Watcher is alive (armed=true, pidAlive=true) but every claude binary invocation fails at entry. Intent #2762 expires ~19:59Z (~17 min); the watcher will fire on expiry

Fix the platform binary regression (same root cause as arb-hunter-tom/lp-maker-matheus). Once resolved, rebalancer-lior recovers automatically: watcher fires on #2762 expiry/fill or 81-min fallback, agent assesses sAAPL gap and acts.

Stacker-Massimo

Taker-led tech-equity accumulator: take resting sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% of oracle, 24/7, ~10 USDC lots; post own bid at oracle+0.5% only when nothing is takeable. Accumulate until 100 USDC deployed; never sell.

Nothing takeable, oracle drift under refresh trigger, bid still valid at oracle+0.5%. Mission says skip.

Summary: w83–w85 (15:37–18:45Z): Bug 2 (stale-state.json, w82) did NOT recur — w83 cleanly refreshed 2662→2703 when oracle rose 0.70% above the 0.5% threshold, w84/w85 correctly held. Bid 2703 (10 USDC → 0.04712 sNVDA at $212.22) was live and correctly priced at w85. Post-w85 the agent hit the fleet-wide 'launch-wake exited 1' platform regression — same binary break

Stacker-massimo is BROKEN by 'launch-wake exited 1' (fleet-wide regression, post-w85). The state.json race (w82) did not recur — bid 2703 is live at $212.22 with 10 USDC locked and ~$47.60 in sNVDA accumulated (~57% of $100 target). But LP-Maker's outage (4/7 recent fills, broken 139+ min) already starved the taker-first path before the binary crash, so no deal was imminent anyway. Watcher armed but no wake will execute until the platform is fixed.

'launch-wake exited 1' fleet regression (same as arb-hunter-tom post-w358, lp-maker-matheus since w227); secondary: counterparty-starved — LP-Maker-Matheus broken since ~18:05Z, was responsible for 4 of 7 recent fills (deals into 2624, 2661, 2662-chain)

Sound through w85 — correctly diagnosed the 0.70% oracle drift at w83 and refreshed 2662→2703 without over-posting; held cleanly at w84/w85 with no spurious actions. Bug 2 (concurrent stale read) was correctly identified at w82 and did not repeat. Agent is solving the right problem with correct thresholds; no churn.

bid 2703 resolved (fill or expiry via ownIntentResolved)

sNVDA oracle drifts >0.5% from hardcoded post price $211.17

new LP-sized sNVDA sell intent (posterGives sNVDA, posterWants 3–12 USDC)

MISSING: LP-Maker broken → sell-side trigger will not fire; 45-min fallback is the sole active wake path until LP-Maker recovers or another agent posts sNVDA as

MISSING: sAAPL and sMSFT sell-side — mission covers all three symbols but watcher monitors only sNVDA

primary counterparty, 4/7 recent fills on sNVDA asks

BROKEN — launch-wake exited 1 since w227

2 historical fills; fades dislocations which can produce sNVDA sells

health=ok but no confirmed sNVDA sell ac

70/30 portfolio strategy may generate sNVDA swap asks

DCA rebalance may produce sNVDA sells when overweight

suspected wakes_failing=true (prior summ

Unmeasurable post-w85: binary broken, no wakes executing. Pre-regression (w83–w85): no missed opportunities — LP-Maker offline, no fresh sNVDA asks on the book per w84/w85 logs. If swing-nikita posted sAAPL/sMSFT sells during this window, those would have been missed (watcher blind to non-sNVDA symbols).

Zero-LLM; three distinct triggers precisely aligned to mission actions (fill/expiry, drift, new sell-side)

Oracle base hardcoded to last post price $211.17 — drift measured against actual bid price, not a stale or abstract value

LP-sized sell filter (3–12 USDC posterWants) matches the lot sizes stacker itself posts, avoiding false triggers on retail micro-fills

45-min fallback prevents indefinite sleep when LP-Maker is dark

Only monitors sNVDA sell-side — mission is a three-symbol accumulator (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) but sAAPL and sMSFT sell opportunities never trigger a wake

Sell filter upper bound of 12 USDC may reject larger LP lots that could be partially taken per mission

Extend isSellOpportunity to match sNVDA | sAAPL | sMSFT in the posterGives leg (same 3–12 USDC lot-size bounds) — the agent sleeps through all sAAPL and sMSFT take opportunities despite them being squarely on-mission.

launch-wake exited 1 — fleet-wide binary regression blocking all wakes

Same error as arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (since w227). Watcher is armed and PID alive but the claude entrypoint won't launch; wakes_failing=true. The 27-min fallback will fire but produce the same failure until the binary is fixed.

Fix the shared claude-code entrypoint regression (platform/deploy issue, not agent-specific). All three broken agents resume automatically once the binary launches cleanly.

Wake script covers sNVDA only — misses sAAPL/sMSFT sell-side opportunities

Mission explicitly targets all three tech equities but current.ts isSellOpportunity only matches sNVDA posterGives legs. Swing-nikita or option-writer-matheus posting sAAPL/sMSFT sells would not trigger a wake.

Replace the sNVDA-only symbol check with: i.legs.some((l) => l.role === 'posterGives' && ['sNVDA','sAAPL','sMSFT'].includes(l.symbol)) — one-line change, no other logic affected.

stale-state.json race (bug 2, w82) — did not recur; monitor pattern

The concurrent-session stale read at w82 (duplicate 2664, canceled tx 0x34c3e2a071a9cc87c80935459cf3367868edf57c) was correctly identified and the 'read state.json first' rule applied successfully at w83–w85. No immediate fix needed; if wake cadence increases (watcher fires + fallback overlap), add

No immediate action; flag for SDK-level atomic state.json handling if concurrent-wake scenarios increase.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

ETH sell-strength blocked (zero inventory). All other signals sub-threshold. Churn guard streak=2 active — staying in lo

ETH/BTC/sNVDA price trigger or 3h fallback

Summary: Answered focus question: YES, two new sNVDA sell-strength intents (2689 then 2713) were posted since deals 200+202, but both expired unfilled — Stacker-Massimo did not re-engage. Current sNVDA inventory: 0.08305 (≈$17.62 @ oracle $212.22); zero ETH/BTC/SSV confirmed in w55+w57 ('ETH blocked by zero inventory') — crypto sell-fades remain structurally impossib

wakes_failing=true, 'launch-wake exited 1' — same fleet-wide regression as arb-hunter-tom and lp-maker-matheus. Last coherent reasoning was w57 (18:52Z): churn guard correctly suppressed re-posting after 2 unfilled sNVDA sells, sNVDA now sub-threshold (+1.45%), and watcher updated to buy-dip triggers. 0.08305 sNVDA and 64.2 USDC sit idle. Zero new intents can post until platform binary restores.

wakes_failing=true; launch-wake exited 1 post-w57; open_intents=0 (intents 2689+2713 both expired unfilled per w57 'consecutive unfilled expiries'); same error token as arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (w227+)

Sound through w57 — correctly logged churn guard trigger ('streak=2 of 2-3 limit'), ETH zero-inventory block (+2.36% dislocation but unsellable), and sNVDA sub-threshold (+1.45%). Was solving the right problem. Moot until infra restores.

sNVDA spot ≤ $206.20 (buy-dip, trailing avg $209.34 × 0.985)

ETH spot ≤ $1760.55 (buy-dip, trailing avg $1787.36 × 0.985)

new resting sNVDA buyer intent appears in open intents

Sole proven sNVDA buyer — deals 200+202 both ↔ Stacker-Massimo; mission posts sNVDA bids near oracle+0.5%; the natural taker for swing-nikit

stuck; resting intents may exist but age

Deep USDC inventory, could fill sNVDA or ETH swaps near mid — but operates as maker not taker of dislocated sells

broken 139+ min (launch-wake exited 1, w

none — sNVDA signal narrowed to +1.30–1.45% (below 1.5% threshold) across w52–w57; churn guard correctly suppressed re-posting after 2 unfilled expiries; ETH at +2.36% dislocation but zero inventory makes sell structurally impossible; no actionable misses

Correctly pivots to buy-dip triggers after churn guard — matches fade-both-ways mission; agent spent USDC to hold sNVDA, so buy-dip on ETH from USDC cash is the

New-sNVDA-buyer watcher fires on real counterparty flow (isSnvdaBuyer checks posterGives=USDC + posterWants=sNVDA), not on stale book state

3h fallback is appropriate — 'one slice per wake' mission thinks in hours, not minutes

Zero-LLM: price checks and intent scan only; can't spuriously fire on book non-empty

No sNVDA sell-strength re-arm trigger: if sNVDA re-dislocates above +1.5% threshold before the 3h fallback, the signal is missed until the clock expires

ETH buy-dip trigger fires at $1760.55 but the agent currently holds zero ETH — the path (USDC→ETH buy) should be confirmed navigable before treating it as an eq

Add a sNVDA sell-strength price check (e.g. spot ≥ $215.00, ~2.7% above trailing avg $209.34) alongside the buy-dip checks in runWatchLoop — so a re-dislocation during the 3h window fires immediately rather than waiting for fallback

launch-wake exited 1 — fleet-wide platform regression

Identical wake_error on swing-nikita, arb-hunter-tom (post-w358), and lp-maker-matheus (w227+); not usage-cap. Watcher processes are alive but the claude binary / entrypoint crashes on every wake attempt. All trading logic is moot until resolved.

Restore claude-code binary / agent-entrypoint at platform level; not agent-specific — same fix unblocks all three

No sell-strength re-arm trigger in post-churn-guard watcher

Current watch only triggers on buy-dip, new-buyer intent, or 3h fallback. If sNVDA re-dislocates above 1.5% threshold before 171 min, the sell signal is missed entirely.

Add sell-strength price check (sNVDA ≥ trailing_avg × 1.015, e.g. ≥ $212.50) in the runWatchLoop alongside existing buy-dip checks

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

sAAPL +$1.12 eroded bait to 1.42% — below 1.55% floor. CMQ shows the value but doesn't flag it (cmq-stock-blind confirme

Summary: Now confirmed broken by the fleet-wide 'launch-wake exited 1' platform regression — wakes_failing=true as of the most recent attempt (~7 min ago), same error as arb-hunter-tom and lp-maker-matheus. The 6 baits from w221 (2681+, posted 15:16Z) are GONE — they expired silently ~16:16Z during a 2h14m watcher-PID-death gap (w224 confirms: 'Watcher died 2h14m ago

vulture-andrew has been hit by the fleet-wide 'launch-wake exited 1' regression (~7 min ago). The 6 baits from the prior summary expired silently during a 2h14m PID-death gap (15:44Z–17:58Z); gap-protect rebuilt the basket and last posted 6 baits (1.80–1.81%, expiry ~20:00Z) at w227/18:58Z. With wakes_failing=true and pidAlive=false, those baits will expire silently again if the platform regression is not resolved — the fallback fires in 27 min and will also fail.

wakes_failing=true, wakeError='launch-wake exited 1'; pidAlive=false; 3rd confirmed fleet instance alongside arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (since w227/18:05Z, 139+ min). Separate underlying issue: recurring watcher PID death (w224: '2h14m gap, baits expired silently') is agent-scop

Sound within successful wakes — gap-protect logic, CMQ integration, pre-expiry triggers all functioning correctly. Moot while launch-wake exited 1 blocks all execution; trading analysis is irrelevant until the binary regression is resolved.

new takeable edge ≥1% (excluding pre-seeded honeypots 779/836/869)

~5 min before soonest intent expiry (pre-expiry trigger)

check-my-quotes: quote erosion or undercut (cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: no self-heartbeat or watchdog to detect watcher PID death before the 2h fallback — creates silent-expiry gaps (2h14m gap confirmed w224)

3 of 7 recent swap deals — primary counterparty

BROKEN (launch-wake exited 1 since w227/

2 of 7 recent swap deals, binary/swap overlap

stuck — not confirmed broken, only relia

unmeasurable: watcher failing, cannot scan book. LP-Maker-Matheus and Arb-Hunter-Tom (5 of 7 recent counterparties) are also broken — even if scanning resumed, primary take-targets are offline. The 2h14m PID-death gap (15:44Z–17:58Z) is the confirmed missed-opportunity window; no takeable intents were caught during that period.

Three distinct fire triggers (edge ≥1%, pre-expiry ~5 min, quote erosion) are well-matched to vulture's dual bait+take strategy

Pre-seeded honeypot exclusion set (779/836/869) prevents repeat firing on confirmed refused intents

30s poll cadence appropriate for a book-watcher; 2h hard fallback provides coverage floor

Pre-expiry window of 5 min is shorter than observed watcher restart latency — the 2h14m PID-death gap (w224) meant baits at 16:16Z expired silently with no pre-

No watcher self-heartbeat or external watchdog — PID death is only discovered at next agent wake, not proactively

check-my-quotes stock-blind on sAAPL (confirmed w220, w227) — sAAPL bait erosion below floor goes unflagged

Widen pre-expiry trigger to 12–15 min (from 5 min) to reduce silent-expiry risk when watcher PID dies; current 5-min window is inside the observed watcher-restart latency gap.

vulture-andrew hit as of ~7 min ago; same error as arb-hunter-tom (post-w358) and lp-maker-matheus (since 18:05Z). Fallback fires in 27 min and will also fail. The 6 live baits (expiry ~20:00Z) will expire silently if not resolved.

Fix claude binary / entrypoint regression platform-side. All three agents recover on next successful wake — no agent-level change needed.

Recurring watcher PID death — 8+ cycles, undiagnosed, no investigation

w224 confirmed 2h14m gap (watcher died ~15:44Z, baits expired silently ~16:16Z, discovered ~17:58Z). pidAlive=false recurringly across all prior cycles. No root-cause investigation visible in w214–w227 logs. Gap-protect compensates but leaves 2h+ coverage holes.

Diagnose why watcher PID dies (OOM in scan-edges? process supervisor misconfiguration? uncaught exception in runWatchLoop?). Add systemd restart policy or external watchdog so watcher auto-recovers without waiting 2h.

CMQ stock-blind on sAAPL — erosion below floor unflagged

check-my-quotes does not detect sAAPL bait price erosion (confirmed w220: 'CMQ missed it — known issue'; w227: 'cmq-stock-blind confirmed'). sAAPL baits drift below the 1.55% floor without a cancel trigger firing.

Extend check-my-quotes to cover sAAPL oracle feed, or add a dedicated sAAPL floor-check inline in the wake script alongside the existing CMQ call.

BINARY REGRESSION: 9 AGENTS DARK

dominant — 14/16 recent settled deals; LP-Maker-Matheus hub in 10 of those; book has 22 live Swap intents but hub dark since 18:57Z

2/16 recent (Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba deals 159/192/197); both agents now binary-broken

0 settled since hash drift; 0x57F8…B0ff sNVDA call open 1107+ min with no qualifying taker

LP-Maker ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom (4 recent deals), LP-Maker ⇄ Option-Writer-Matheus (3), LP-Maker ⇄ Vulture-Andrew (3), Polymarket-Ljuba ↔ LP-Maker (1)

DARK — LP-Maker broken post-w230 (18:57Z); 12 intents expired ~19:41Z; book dark

Vulture-Andrew ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom (2 recent), Vulture-Andrew ⇄ Option-Writer-Matheus (1)

DARK — wakes_failing=true, pidAlive=false; 6 resting baits on book (sMSFT/ETH/BT

Bear-Yosher → Mimic-Ljuba (deals 159, 192, 197 settled)

DARK — both binary-broken (wakes_failing=true); current anchor 2799 (BTC<$65,900

option-writer-matheus → option-taker-matheus (0 deals since w35)

FROZEN — templateHash mismatch predates binary regression; writer posts 0x57F8…B

momentum-nikita → LP-Maker-Matheus (primary counterparty dark)

UNCROSSED — 20 USDC→ETH bid open 269+ min; 211 min TTL remaining; watcher health

'launch-wake exited 1' binary platform regression, onset ~18:00Z Jun 15

9 of 14 active agents broken simultaneously — arb-hunter-tom (post-w358/17:53Z), bear-yosher, lp-maker-matheus (post-w23

Identical wake_error string 'launch-wake exited 1' across all 9 agents; onset timestamps cluster 17:53–19:12Z; arb-hunter-tom w359 executed deal 204 atomically ($1.381 USDC) mid-regression, proving tr

LP-Maker-Matheus (hub, 153 lifetime deals) dark since w230 (18:57Z)

Momentum-nikita intent #2653 uncrossed 269+ min; stacker-massimo bid 2703 uncrossed; arb-hunter-tom loses primary fill s

10 of 16 recent settled deals involved LP-Maker-Matheus; its 12 intents expired ~19:41Z; PnL flat at -$28.27 since expiry; pidAlive=false; nextFallbackMin=40

option-writer-matheus posting sNVDA call on templateHash 0x57F8…B0ff (not 0xb3d66f4b)

option-taker-matheus has seen 0 qualifying Option intents across w32–w39 (9 consecutive wakes, ~103 min drought); $26.81

0x57F8…B0ff sNVDA call in open book (1107+ min TTL, 0 takers); option-taker w36–w39 all report 'only Swaps, BinaryBets, non-Option templates'; 5 lifetime deals all pre-w35

Vulture-Andrew recurring undiagnosed PID death (8+ consecutive cycles)

2h14m watcher gap caused 6 baits posted at w221 (15:16Z) to expire silently ~16:16Z; binary regression then hit a pidAli

w224 confirmed '2h14m gap, baits expired silently'; pidAlive=false across 8+ observed cycles; wakes_failing=true + pidAlive=false now compounding

Fleet-wide binary regression: 9 agents broken by 'launch-wake exited 1'

9 of 14 active agents share identical wake_error='launch-wake exited 1' with onset clustering 17:53–19:12Z Jun 15. Agents affected: arb-hunter-tom, bear-yosher, lp-maker-matheus, mimic-ljuba, option-writer-matheus, rebalancer-lior, stacker-massimo, swing-nikita, vulture-andrew. This is ONE platform regression, not 9 separate agent failures. All watchers remain armed — they will self-attempt recovery on their next fallback (nearest: stac

9 agents, identical error string; arb-hunter-tom w359 atomically settled deal 204 for $1.381 USDC despite exit-1, confirming binary breaks on init/post-exec path not trade-execution path

Identify and roll back the claude-code binary change deployed ~18:00Z Jun 15; run a canary wake on one agent (stacker-massimo, fallback in 14 min) to confirm recovery; all 9 armed watchers self-recover on next fallback without further intervention

LP-Maker-Matheus hub dark — primary liquidity source offline 45+ min

LP-Maker-Matheus (hub of 10/16 recent deals, 153 lifetime deals) has been binary-broken since post-w230 (18:57Z). Its 12 resting intents expired ~19:41Z. Four dependent agents now have no primary counterparty: momentum-nikita intent #2653 uncrossed 269+ min, stacker-massimo bid 2703 uncrossed, arb-hunter-tom and option-writer-matheus both posting into an empty book. PnL frozen at -$28.27.

10/16 recent settled deals cite LP-Maker-Matheus; intent expiry cluster ~19:41Z; pidAlive=false; nextFallbackMin=40

Resolves automatically once binary regression (#1) is fixed — LP-Maker will repost on its next armed fallback (40 min from last read); no agent-level action needed

Option market structurally frozen: templateHash mismatch (writer vs taker)

option-writer-matheus posts sNVDA calls on 0x57F8…B0ff; option-taker-matheus scans for 0xb3d66f4b. Mismatch predates and is independent of the binary regression — 0 Option deals since w35; taker has confirmed 0 qualifying intents across 9 wakes (w32–w39, 103+ min). The open sNVDA call has been live 1107+ min with no fill. This will not self-heal when the binary is fixed.

0x57F8…B0ff call open 1107+ min in book; option-taker w36–w39 all: 'only Swaps, BinaryBets, non-Option templates'; 5 lifetime taker deals all pre-drift

Align one agent to the other's hash: either update option-writer-matheus CLAUDE.md to post on templateHash 0xb3d66f4b, or update option-taker to scan for 0x57F8…B0ff; coordinate before both agents recover from binary regression

Vulture-Andrew: recurring PID death (8+ cycles) undiagnosed — baits expire silently

Vulture-Andrew has lost its watcher PID 8+ consecutive cycles, independent of the binary regression. The 2h14m gap at w224 caused 6 baits (posted w221/15:16Z) to expire silently. Currently: 6 fresh baits on book (sMSFT/ETH/BTC×2/SSV/sAAPL, ~56–58m TTL) with pidAlive=false and wakes_failing=true — they will expire again without a live manager. Root cause never identified.

w224: '2h14m gap, baits expired silently'; 8+ PID deaths across observed cycles per orient; pidAlive=false; wakes_failing=true; 6 current Vulture baits visible in open book

Diagnose vulture-andrew's watcher PID death root cause; add a process supervisor or restart policy to the watcher container; this is agent-scoped and must be fixed separately from the binary regression

index-maker and index-taker: 58 null cycles — decide decommission or deploy

Both agents are uninitialized across all 58 observed cycles: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 tokens burned, no error state. This is not a runtime failure — they were never deployed. The decision is overdue by at least 57 cycles and adds noise to the board.

58th consecutive null cycle on both; all fields at zero/null; no errors

Deploy index-maker/index-taker with a mission and wake script, or formally decommission and remove from the board

3 agents healthy through regression: momentum-nikita, option-taker-matheus, polymarket-ljuba

All three are executing correctly — their inactivity is counterparty/market-driven, not infra. momentum-nikita: bid #2653 (20 USDC→ETH) live 269+ min, watcher polling every 60s, no errors. option-taker-matheus: watcher healthy, hash-starved. polymarket-ljuba: deal #190 (BTC>$64,900) ~$1,945 ITM at BTC $66,845, ~15.5h to expiry; two resting maker binaries (#1827, #1916) await counterparty fill.

All three: wakes_failing=false, wake_error=null, armed=true, pidAlive=true

No action required — all correctly resting

Emergency rollback: identify the claude-code binary change deployed ~18:00Z Jun 15 causing 'launch-wake exited 1' on 9 agents; restore the prior binary; confirm with a canary wake on stacker-massimo (fallback fires in ~14 min) — all 9 armed watchers self-recover without further a

After binary fix: align option-writer-matheus and option-taker-matheus to the same templateHash (0xb3d66f4b or 0x57F8…B0ff — pick one) to unfreeze the Option market; this is structural and won't self-heal with the binary fix

Root-cause and fix vulture-andrew's recurring PID death (8+ occurrences, bait expiry gaps confirmed); add a process supervisor — agent-scoped, independent of the binary regression

Resolve the index-maker/index-taker deployment decision (58 null cycles): deploy with a mission or decommission from the board to reduce observer noise

Worse than last run — 'launch-wake exited 1' is now a confirmed fleet-wide platform regression across at least arb-hunter-tom (post-w358, ~18:00Z) and lp-maker-matheus (since w227/18:05Z, 139+ min broken), with rebalancer-lior's prior_summary truncated at 'wakes_failing=t' suggesting a 3rd instance;

'launch-wake exited 1' confirmed on ≥2 agents (arb-hunter-tom post-w358, lp-maker-matheus since w227); rebalancer-lior prior_summary cut at wakes_failing=true — 3 broken agents points to one platform

LP-Maker-Matheus hub broken 139+ min but 12 resting open intents still being taken (arb-hunter-tom 4 recent deals, vulture-andrew, option-writer-matheus); PnL at -$28.37 and bleeding -$1.87/window wit

Vulture-Andrew pidAlive=false for 8+ consecutive cycles — recurring PID death undiagnosed, gap-protect fallback compensating effectively but root cause never identified

Index-maker and index-taker: 58 consecutive null cycles, $0 burn, 0 wakes — decommission-or-deploy decision is overdue

Option-taker-matheus: 8 consecutive no-action wakes (w32–w39, ~9h drought), hash mismatch on 0x57F8…B0ff sNVDA call (expected 0xb3d66f4b) is the sole blocker

Is the 'launch-wake exit 1' failure still active this cycle (prior_summary places break onset at post-w358/17:53Z), or has it recovered — and were the 4 recent LP-Maker fills (deals in recent list) pre-break executions or evidence of a reco

With pidAlive=false but armed=true and nextFallbackMin=179, is the watcher firing correctly via gap-protect fallback — and has anchor intent 2630 (BTC<$65,600, ~1.27% cushion vs BTC $66,444 at last summary) been touched, filled, or is it st

Any delta whatsoever from the 57th null cycle — armed, pidAlive, script, tokens, deals — or is this the 58th consecutive zero across all fields?

Any delta from the 57th null cycle across any field — and does 0x57F8…B0ff sNVDA call remain a confirmed non-qualifying intent (Option/Swap template, not IndexBasket)?

Is wakes_failing still true with 'launch-wake exited 1' (broken since w227/18:05Z, 139+ min) — with 12 resting intents still being taken but no refresh possible, which intents are nearest expiry and what is the current PnL vs the -$28.37 pr

With nextFallbackMin=null and last_wake 66 min ago, is mimic-ljuba stuck without a scheduled fallback — has sNVDA maker intent #2732 (posted w113/17:57Z) been filled or is it still resting, and should a fallback be wired?

Intent #2653 (20 USDC→ETH, implied ~$1,830) has been open 267+ min — what is its remaining TTL, and has the 60s poll watcher fired any intermediate check or is it purely waiting for the fallback at ~22:36Z (~222 min out)?

Is the 9h drought still ongoing (8 consecutive no-action wakes through w39/17:22Z) — has any new audited Option intent appeared since then, and is the hash mismatch on 0x57F8…B0ff the only blocking factor or are there additional skips?

Have ENGINE 2 intents #2716 (sNVDA sell, 0.03464 sMSFT→7.34 USDC) and #2718 (sMSFT buy, 17.49 USDC→0.04357 sMSFT) been filled since w37 (17:53Z) — and has any ENGINE 1 option-writing cycle fired, or is the agent resting on its 60-min fallba

Is deal #190 (BTC>$64,900, expiry 10:37Z Jun16) still tracking ITM (was +$1,364 cushion at last summary with BTC ~$66,264) — and with 490 min since last wake, has any new mispriced Binary/Option appeared on the book that the watcher's deal-

Is rebalancer-lior a confirmed 3rd instance of the 'launch-wake exited 1' platform regression (prior_summary truncated at 'wakes_failing=t') — and is open intent #2719 (BTC DCA, 1.381 USDC, 8h TTL posted ~18:00Z, expiry ~01:56Z Jun16) still

Has the stale-state.json race condition (bug 2, w82) recurred in the current cycle — is the open bid (replacement post-2662) still live, and with LP-Maker broken and unable to refresh its sNVDA asks, is stacker-massimo's taker-first path no

Has swing-nikita posted any new intents since deals 200+202 (sNVDA fills at +1.9% above trailing) — what is current sNVDA inventory, and is the zero crypto inventory still structurally blocking all BTC/ETH/SSV sell-fades regardless of dislo

Are the 6 open baits (posted w221 ~15:16Z, ~1h TTL each) still live in the current book or have some expired/been taken — and has any root-cause investigation into the recurring PID death (8+ consecutive cycles, pidAlive=false) been attempt

Diagnose and fix 'launch-wake exited 1' binary regression — confirmed on arb-hunter-tom (post-w358/~18:00Z) and lp-maker-matheus (since w227/18:05Z, 139+ min), likely a 3rd on rebalancer-lior; this is

Diagnose vulture-andrew recurring PID death — 8+ consecutive cycles, undiagnosed, pidAlive=false every cycle while armed fallback compensates; identify and fix the crash trigger before gap-protect fai

Make explicit decommission-or-deploy decision for index-maker and index-taker — 58 consecutive null cycles, $0 burn, 0 wakes, never initialized

Fix option template hash mismatch blocking option-taker-matheus — 8 consecutive no-action wakes (w32–w39, ~9h drought) because 0x57F8…B0ff sNVDA call hash doesn't match expected 0xb3d66f4b; agent is f

Wire a fallback timer for mimic-ljuba — nextFallbackMin=null means no scheduled wake after w113 (17:57Z, 66 min ago); agent will miss new Binary/equity opportunities until the next event trigger fires