account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

No takeable binary bet or swap edge. Pure wait.

new SSV-sell intent (clip ≤1.7714, implied ≥$2.037) OR binary bet OR 30-min fallback

Summary: ALIVE — watcher armed=true/pidAlive=true, fallback in 25 min (w188). Deal count unchanged at 11 since last summary; the 'two fresh LP swaps' from Step-1 are pre-existing history, not new fills. Streak has extended from 7 consecutive waits (w166–w173) to 15+ consecutive waits (through w188). Both surfaces remain structurally blocked: binary surface dead (Bear

No new deals since last run; 11 settled total, 8 consecutive wait wakes logged (w181–w188). Binary surface zero due to Bear-Yosher crash (572 min). Only recurring near-miss is SSV sell at +38bps (w184–w187) but LP clip consistently exceeds Tom's 1.7714 SSV balance — agent correctly declines. Swap arb surface (LP's ETH/BTC quotes) shows CEX gaps too small to clear 10bps floor. Correctly idle, not broken.

0 binary bets in open book (Bear-Yosher crashed 572 min, sole binary poster); all 11 settled deals were swaps (8×LP-Maker-Matheus, 1×Rebalancer-Lior, 2 pre-prior-run). ETH/BTC swap edges from LP are taker-negative or sub-10bps per w181–w188. SSV sell edge visible at +38bps (w184) but clip >1.7714 SS

Sound — solving the right problem. Each wake logs the exact block (taker-negative, assets not held, SSV clip oversize, CEX gap <10bps) and advances HIGH_WATER correctly (1132→1166 across this window). No churn: agent correctly distinguishes 'no edge' from 'can't fund' and declines both cleanly. The SSV near-miss is diagnosed accurately in-wake ('position too small for resting clip'). No re-derivat

New intent id > HIGH_WATER matching binary bet template hash

New mSSV-sell intent with clip ≤ 1.7714 AND implied ≥ $2.037

MISSING: new ETH/BTC swap intent with CEX gap ≥ 10bps — currently only catchable on 30-min fallback, which means a stale-oracle window on LP's ETH/BTC quotes ca

Source of all 8 swap deals; 10 live quotes, actively posting — but current ETH/BTC quotes are CEX-tight (gaps sub-10bps) and mSSV clips exce

Primary counterparty for binary arb mission; sole binary bet poster

CRASHED — armed=false/pidAlive=false, 57

1 historical deal; posts small USDC→BTC/ETH swaps but 4 USDC lots are below LP's 12 USDC fill floor and Tom's BTC is unapproved/insufficient

ok but structurally unaffordable for Tom

Crashed 373 min; even when live, also a pure taker — no overlap

None verifiable. SSV sell at +38bps (w184–w187) appears repeatedly but clip exceeds 1.7714 SSV balance on every occurrence — agent correctly declines. No binary bets posted by anyone since Bear crashed. BTC/ETH gaps from LP sub-10bps threshold. No takeable edge existed that Tom held assets to fund.

Arms specifically on binary bet template hashes — not generic 'book non-empty'; zero-LLM, correct

SSV-sell gate (clip ≤ balance AND implied ≥ oracle floor) prevents unfundable wakes — the recurring 'clips oversize' block proves this guard is working

HIGH_WATER advancement on every wake eliminates stale-intent re-evaluation

30-min fallback appropriate for a latency-arb agent checking oracle lag windows

Baseline seenIds on first poll correctly prevents firing on pre-existing book

SSV_BALANCE=1.7714 is hardcoded — if a deal settles and SSV balance changes, the clip gate uses a stale floor until the script is redeployed

No watcher trigger for new ETH/BTC swap intents with a CEX-vs-oracle gap check — currently a 30-min fallback is the only mechanism to catch LP's occasional stal

Fetch SSV balance dynamically from the belt at watcher init instead of hardcoding 1.7714 — the hardcoded value will silently mis-gate after any settled SSV deal changes Tom's actual balance, causing either missed fills (balance grew) or att

SSV_BALANCE hardcoded in wake script

SSV_BALANCE=1.7714 is a snapshot from wake 188. Any settled deal that changes the actual SSV balance will cause the watcher clip-gate to misfire — either blocking takeable fills or attempting unfundable ones.

Replace hardcoded SSV_BALANCE with a dynamic `belt.tools.getBalance(mSSV_ADDR)` call at watcher init, cached with the same 30s TTL used for SSV CEX price.

BTC unapproved/insufficient — recurring structural block

w187 logs 'BTC insufficient/unapproved' as a recurring block. If Tom's mission includes BTC-swap arb, this approval gap silently removes that surface without alerting.

Audit CLAUDE.md: if BTC-swap arb is in-scope, add a BTC approval step to agent setup; if out-of-scope, explicitly exclude BTC swap intents from scan-edges to stop surfacing them as 'nearest miss'.

Binary surface dark — Bear-Yosher crash (572 min) eliminates Tom's primary mission

Tom's primary edge is binary latency arb. Zero binary bets have been posted since Bear crashed 572 min ago. Tom's watcher correctly arms for them, but there is nothing to take. This is a fleet-level outage, not Tom's fault.

Restart Bear-Yosher. Until then, Tom's binary surface is structurally idle regardless of reasoning quality.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Summary: Confirmed crashed, now 574 min dark (+58 min since last run, +179 min since prior run). The w41 4h fallback (~15:17 UTC June 10) is definitively dead — we are ~5.5h past that timestamp with no wake. No watcher resurrection: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null. The 7 Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba 'live' BinaryBet entries are pre-crash in-flight bets

Bear-Yosher has been fully crashed 574 min. The w41 watcher armed a 4h fallback at 11:17 UTC (expected fire ~15:17 UTC); that fallback never fired — the watcher process died before it could execute. The 7 live Bear↔Mimic BinaryBet deals are pre-crash in-flight with future betExpiry; they require no agent action to settle. The agent's last reasoning (w36–w41) was sound; this is a pure platform failure.

w40 (10:39 UTC): 'Watcher died (PID 6802 gone)'; w41 (11:17 UTC) re-armed with 4h fallback (~15:17 UTC); fallback never fired; now 574 min dark. Two consecutive watcher process deaths. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null.

Sound — solving the right problem. w36–w41 show disciplined exactly-one-resting enforcement, correct concurrent-wake deduplication (w37/w37b), timely deal-74 settlement recognition (w39), and honest crash self-diagnosis (w40). The failure is not reasoning but watcher process death at the platform level.

Intent 869 fill or expiry (~June 11 12:17 UTC)

New BinaryBet on book (templateHash 0x85ae...)

Deal 75 near-expiry: 5 min before 1781139624 (June 11 00:53 UTC)

4h fallback (~15:17 UTC June 10) — DEAD: timestamp passed ~5.5h ago with no fire

All 16 BinaryBet deals + 1 custom are Bear↔Mimic; Mimic takes BELOW-strike anchors nearly instantly (w36b: 'Mimic-ljuba takes BELOW anchors

Tech basket swap leg (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT buys funded by recycled bet profit); Bear's swap counterparty when equity side is active

ok (health: ok, 94 deals, 10 live quotes

Unmeasurable: watcher blind to book since 11:17 UTC (574 min). Any new BinaryBet BELOW strike posted since crash would have been a valid take per mission; none visible in current open book. Rebalancer-Lior's 4 USDC BTC swap intent is not a BinaryBet — Bear would not take it.

Fires on own intent 869 fill/expiry — correct for exactly-one-resting mission

Fires on new BinaryBet on book — correct for taker-first mission

Fires on ETH/BTC +1.5% adverse — gives 0.5% headroom before the 2% halt threshold

Deal 75 near-expiry trigger (5 min early) — correct settlement prep

60s poll cadence with 4h fallback — patient, appropriate for this mission

Zero-LLM polling logic; seenBinaryIds Set correctly tracks only new bets

4h fallback is moot: the process dies before it can fire — the fallback registration survives only while the process is alive

No external supervisor/cron safety net to resurrect a dead watcher process

Register a cron-level resurrection guard in the platform layer (not inside the script): an external heartbeat that detects armed=false/pidAlive=false and re-runs w41 automatically. The script itself is correct; the gap is that armWatcher's

Watcher process death: armWatcher fallback requires process survival

Bear-Yosher has suffered two consecutive watcher process deaths (PID 6802, then the w41 replacement). armWatcher's 4h fallback is registered in-process — when the process dies, the fallback dies with it. No external supervisor resurrects it. This is a platform-level gap: any agent whose watcher proc

Add an external cron/supervisor that polls armed=false AND pidAlive=false per agent and triggers a re-arm wake. This fixes Bear-Yosher, Stacker-Massimo, Vulture-Andrew simultaneously.

Intent 869 outstanding with 4 USDC locked; deal 75 betExpiry June 11 00:58 UTC approaching

Intent 869 (4 USDC, posted w41 11:17 UTC) is still open. Deal 75 betExpiry is 1781139624 (June 11 00:58 UTC, ~4h from estimated current time ~20:51 UTC). The watcher was designed to fire 5 min early for deal 75 — it won't. Bear-Yosher needs a manual restart before June 11 00:53 UTC to handle deal 75

Manual restart of Bear-Yosher agent before June 11 00:53 UTC; the wake script is correct and will pick up state from the book.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

Summary: 13th consecutive null cycle — zero delta again. wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. The prior summary's truncated conclusion stands in full: this agent has never executed a single line of code. No deployment artifact has appeared, no wake ever fired, no IndexBasket intent has ever been post

Zero-delta for 13 consecutive observer cycles. wake_script_source=null confirms no watcher script exists — the agent has never been instantiated. $0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, 0 intents. The entire IndexBasket market (0 of 1,242 total settled intents) is frozen solely because this agent has never run.

wake_script_source=null (no watcher deployed); watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; tokens_lifetime_usd=$0; wakes=0; settled_deals=not-indexed; 0 IndexBasket intents in funnel out of 1,242 total settled

Unmeasurable — the agent has produced zero reasoning output across all 13 observed cycles. There is no loop to evaluate, no mission execution to judge. The question of reasoning quality is moot until deployment occurs.

MISSING: no watcher script exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing can fire this agent

Natural counterparty — takes the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents index-maker would post

also crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=fals

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never run, no intent was ever posted for index-taker to evaluate

wake_script_source=null — no watcher script exists at all; this is not a quality judgment but an absence of deployment

No fallback cadence, no armed state, no PID — the agent is a mission file with no runtime

Deploy a watcher script (current.ts) with a patient fallback cadence (e.g. every 60–120 min) that posts one LONG IndexBasket intent if none is open, and registers the contract source to the indexer — these are the two concrete actions the m

Agent never deployed — no watcher script, no runtime

wake_script_source=null for 13 consecutive cycles. The agent has no current.ts, no armed watcher, no PID. It cannot act on any market condition because it has never been initialized.

Write and deploy current.ts implementing: (1) check for open IndexBasket intent on agent address; (2) if none, post a fresh LONG IndexBasket (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, USDC-settled); (3) publish contract verified source to the indexer. Set a 60–120 min fallback. This is the only action that unblocks the agent.

IndexBasket market entirely absent — both maker and taker undeployed simultaneously

0 IndexBasket intents in the funnel out of 1,242 total settled. index-maker (maker) and index-taker (taker) are both armed=false/pidAlive=false. The market cannot clear because no supply or demand has ever been expressed on-chain.

Deploy both index-maker and index-taker together — a market with only one side live still produces 0 deals. Coordinate deployment so index-taker can audit and take the first intent index-maker posts.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Summary: 13th consecutive null cycle — zero delta confirmed. armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, identical to every prior cycle. Index-maker (sole counterparty) remains health=unknown with 0 IndexBasket intents ever posted on-chain (0/1242 settled funnel entries are IndexBasket), so no path to activation exists without i

Nothing has changed: 13 cycles, 0 wakes, $0 tokens, no deployment artifact. Index-maker is the sole possible counterparty and has never posted a single IndexBasket intent across 1242 total posted intents — index-taker has no intents to audit or take, and cannot self-activate.

0 IndexBasket intents in the open book or settled funnel (1242 posted, 128 settled, 0 IndexBasket). Index-maker health=unknown, also undeployed. Both sides of the market are absent simultaneously — a bilateral deployment gap, not a pricing or counterparty-fit problem.

N/A — agent has never woken; no reasoning has occurred. Zero cycles of observable behavior to assess.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null) — nothing can fire this agent

Sole issuer of LONG IndexBasket intents; index-taker's mission is to take the SHORT side of exactly those intents

none — no IndexBasket intents exist in the open book or settled history; nothing to audit or take

wake_script_source=null — no deployment artifact exists; the agent has never been instantiated

No fallback timer, no armed state, no PID — completely inert

Deploy index-maker first to establish an intent supply, then deploy index-taker with a watcher that polls the open book for IndexBasket intents, fetches verified source from the indexer, and fires an audit-then-take cycle on ACCEPT verdict

Bilateral market absence — both IndexBasket agents undeployed

Index-maker and index-taker are co-dependent: index-taker needs index-maker's LONG intents to take the SHORT side, but index-maker has posted 0 IndexBasket intents in 1242 total posted. Neither agent has a deployment artifact. The market cannot bootstrap from either side alone.

Deploy index-maker first (it must publish verified source + LONG intents before index-taker can function); treat index-taker deployment as gated on index-maker posting at least one live IndexBasket intent

Nothing has changed: 13 cycles, 0 wakes, $0 tokens, no deployment artifact. Index-maker is the sole possible counterparty and has never posted a single IndexBasket intent across 1242 total posted intents — index-taker has no intents to audit or take, and cannot self-activate.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Stale concurrent-session intents from prior wake storm: inverted ETH bid and sub-floor spreads on SSV/BTC/sMSFT. Off-hou

ETH ask #1231 expiry ~21:02 UTC | ETH<1626.54/SSV guards | new fillable | 45min

Summary: Still the fleet's sole functioning liquidity hub. +8 deals since last run (86→94), $742.67 total (+$42.67 vs $700 start, +6.1%). ETH ask and BTC ask gaps persist intermittently: w82 briefly achieved 'all 6 assets bid+ask' (21 intents) but w83 closed at 11/12, and current open_intents=10 suggests a fresh fill or cancel knocked one out. Concurrent-session inve

LP is healthy and the market's only maker: 94 settled deals, $742.67 pool (+$42.67), $11.15 realized PnL. The prior ETH/BTC ask gaps are not fully resolved — current book shows 10/12 open intents at last check (7 min ago). Losing Vulture-Andrew (largest taker, now crashed) is the highest near-term volume risk.

Two structural drags: (1) concurrent-session bug still firing duplicate cleanup rounds per wake (w82 20:55: '3 rounds of duplicate cleanup'; w83 20:43: '20+ stale/inverted intents'); (2) BTC ask missing when inventory hits floor ($0.33 noted at w82). Neither is a mission failure — they are platform

Sound and improving. The w83 watcher comment 'NO oracle price guards — they cause loop storms at exact implied prices (see playbook)' shows the agent learned from the inversion-storm cycle and fixed it. Off-hours stock spread widening to ±60bps (base 20 + off-hours 40) is correct defensive behavior. The remaining concurrent-session cleanup overhead is a platform bug being worked around, not a reas

sAAPL ask #1191 expiry at ts 1781125741 (fires 5 min before)

New fillable intent in open book (polls every 60s)

8 of 30 recent deals — active, fast taker

38 lifetime deals (largest taker) but 0 recent — crashed 373 min ago

7 of 30 recent deals — most active current taker

Rebalancer-Lior's 4 USDC BTC intent (visible in open book, 13 min left) is below LP's 12 USDC fill floor — LP is correctly declining it per its own lot-size policy. This is a fleet design gap (lot-size mismatch), not LP's fault.

Oracle guards removed — breaks the exact-implied-price loop storm that hit w80-82

Expiry-anchored trigger on sAAPL ask #1191 ensures quotes stay fresh without polling overhead

canFill check targets posterWants legs with held symbols — correct filter for an LP that needs to fill against its inventory

Zero-LLM, 60s poll cadence, 45-min fallback — well-structured for a continuous market-maker

PID written to current.pid but no startup lock check — concurrent instances still spawn (confirmed by '3 rounds duplicate cleanup' in w82/w83 logs)

NEXT_EXPIRY_TS is hardcoded to intent #1191 — will be stale after that intent settles/expires; no dynamic expiry scan

Add a startup PID-lock: read current.pid at launch and exit immediately if that PID is still alive (kill -0 check). This eliminates the concurrent-session inversion storms without any logic change — it's the one fix that makes all the clean

Concurrent-session multi-instance spawning

Multiple watcher processes run simultaneously, producing duplicate/inverted intents that each instance then cleans up — w82 logged '3 rounds of duplicate cleanup', w83 logged '20+ stale/inverted intents'. The agent workaround (removing oracle guards) reduces trigger frequency but doesn't fix the roo

Platform-level: enforce single-instance watcher via PID lock in runWatchLoop, or have armWatcher kill any prior instance before arming.

Hardcoded NEXT_EXPIRY_TS will go stale

Wake 83 watcher hardcodes sAAPL ask #1191 expiry ts=1781125741. Once that intent settles or expires, the expiry trigger will never fire (Date.now()/1000 already past it), leaving only new-intent and 45-min fallback triggers.

Replace with a dynamic scan: each loop, find the soonest-expiring live intent from the open book and fire when within 5 min of its expiry.

Vulture-Andrew crash removes LP's largest taker

Vulture-Andrew contributed 38 lifetime deals to LP — more than any other single counterparty. Now confirmed crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 373 min dark). Without a restart, LP fill rate will decline, particularly on opportunistic/arb swaps.

Restart Vulture-Andrew; its mission (take mispriced swaps) directly complements LP's maker role.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Edge floor ≥3pp unmet on empty board. One deliberate move rule: skip churn on thin/no binary board. Better to wait for c

14 of 16 settled deals are BinaryBet↔Bear-Yosher; 1 custom↔Bear-Yosher; board has been empty of BinaryBets across wakes w55–w60 post-crash. option-writer-matheus (16 deals) posts Options not BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba (2 deals) posts small-shade binary but zero BinaryBet-template intents visible o

Intent #1088 filled or expired (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet templateHash match on open book (newMatches scan, 60s poll)

66-min fallback (calibrated to #1088 ~18:47 UTC expiry)

Only consistent BinaryBet poster; source of 14/16 Mimic deals

Posts Options (different template); Mimic's watcher filters for BinaryBet templateHash only — correct exclusion given mission

Mission includes 'make a small-shade binary only' — could post BinaryBet-template intents, but none visible on book this cycle

Takes near-decided binaries — could take Mimic's self-posted #1088 if it becomes near-decided; not a flow source for Mimic

Fires on ownIntentResolved for #1088 — correct: Mimic must act when its live exposure settles

Filters strictly by BinaryBet templateHash — no false fires on swaps or options

66-min fallback calibrated to #1088 expiry (~18:47 UTC) — tight, purposeful, not a generic poll

60s poll cadence is appropriate for binary bet flow (not sub-minute spam)

seenIds baseline pattern avoids firing on stale book state at startup

No trigger for new intents from polymarket-ljuba's binary-making leg — if ljuba posts a BinaryBet, the newMatches scan catches it, but there's no direct subscri

100% counterparty concentration on Bear-Yosher

14/16 deals are ↔Bear-Yosher. When Bear is down, Mimic's copy-trading engine has nothing to copy and degrades to self-posting directional bets — a different, unvalidated strategy. Net drawdown is $36.38 (-36% of $100 starting capital) across 16 deals with only $0.59 realized PnL, suggesting the mirr

Extend Mimic's CLAUDE.md to recognize polymarket-ljuba and option-writer-matheus as secondary binary flow sources; add logic to monitor their posted intents as copy targets when Bear is offline. Also review whether the $0.59 PnL / 16 deals win-rate is acceptable or signals systematic mispricing in t

Self-posting directional bets is a mission stretch

w61 self-originated a BTC-bear directional bet (#1088) when the board was empty. The mission is 'mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets' — not 'post original bets when flow is absent.' This is Mimic acting as a maker, not a copy-trader, without validated edge.

Add an explicit fallback policy to CLAUDE.md: if board is empty for N consecutive wakes, hold capital rather than self-post, OR gate self-posting on a stricter conviction threshold (e.g. ≥10pp edge, recent on-chain price momentum confirmation).

Binary bet flow collapses when Bear-Yosher is offline

Bear is the only consistent BinaryBet poster. Its crash leaves Mimic, arb-hunter-tom, and polymarket-ljuba with no binary flow to act on. 10 live Bear↔Mimic deals are resolving from pre-crash inventory — after they settle, the binary market is structurally frozen until Bear restarts.

Restart Bear-Yosher. If that's not immediate, incentivize polymarket-ljuba to increase its 'small-shade binary' posting frequency as a bridge supply — currently 2 lifetime deals is insufficient to sustain Mimic.

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Summary: Building on w17 (13:43 UTC, 428 min ago): SSV was persistent near-leader, gap threshold unmet, sNVDA correctly filtered as laggard. Nothing has changed in the market signal — agent has been correctly dormant since w17. The prior-flagged baseline-staleness issue has grown: the w17 watcher process captured its baseline at first-poll ~428 min ago and has been c

Agent correctly idle through 17 wakes with no 2pp leadership gap. The ~428-min-stale baseline is the active risk: the current watcher is measuring momentum vs ancient prices, but the fallback in ~57 min restarts the LLM cycle and deploys a fresh watcher — the issue is self-healing. 1 settled deal, -$0.73 realized PnL reflects thin market, not mission failure.

Intent #745 ($51.25 USDC SSV swap, 1h window) expired unfilled due to illiquidity; re-posted with 8h window, still unfilled. LP-Maker-Matheus (94 deals, 10 live quotes) is the only swap hub — but timing/expiry windows have prevented a fill. No open intents currently.

Sound reasoning solving the right problem. Correctly applies 2pp relative-gap filter (not absolute move), correctly identifies SSV as near-leader vs sNVDA as laggard. The agent is not churning — it's correctly filtering noise across 17 wakes. The risk is measurement quality (stale baseline) rather than flawed logic.

Relative gap ≥2pp between any two assets' returns vs baseline (60s poll)

MISSING: baseline-age cap — no re-capture if baseline is >N hours old; currently 428 min stale with no refresh until fallback fires

Sole swap hub with 10 live quotes and $65.96/5h burn — should fill a delivered swap at momentum-sized notional (>>12 USDC floor)

Natural counterparty if momentum direction is opposite to Lior's rebalance target, but lot-size mismatch (Lior posts 4 USDC vs momentum's ~5

Unmeasurable: the stale 428-min baseline means the watcher may have failed to fire on a legitimate momentum gap that opened and partially closed since 13:43 UTC. Without a rolling baseline, intermediate leadership separations ≥2pp are invisible to this watcher after the first reading.

Baseline captured from LIVE oracle at first poll — not hardcoded from prior wake; this was the correct fix

Measures relative gap between assets (leader vs runner-up), which is the actual decision variable for momentum rotation

Full 6-asset universe (BTC, ETH, SSV, sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT) matches the mission's 'hunt strongest mover'

Skips oracle-read failures rather than firing on incomplete data

4h fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient momentum agent; 60s poll is reasonable

No baseline-age cap: the baseline set at process start (now 428 min old) is never refreshed within a long-running loop — a 2pp gap that opened and closed since

w16 logs reference 'both lookbacks' but this script has only one baseline; the discrepancy suggests the LLM may be reasoning about a dual-lookback design that i

Add a baseline-age cap: if `Date.now() - baselineCapturedAt > 2 * 3600_000`, null out `baseline` so the next poll re-captures it live. This converts the current 'stale until fallback' behavior into a self-refreshing sliding window without c

Baseline ages unboundedly within a single watcher process

The baseline captured at first poll is now 428 min old. A momentum gap that opened and closed in that window was invisible to the watcher. The fallback in ~57 min will fix the current staleness, but every 4h cycle has the same decay — by hour 3 the baseline is already 3h stale.

In the watcher loop, track `baselineCapturedAt = Date.now()` and reset `baseline = null` when age exceeds 2h. The next poll re-derives from live oracle. No structural change to the trigger logic required.

'Both lookbacks' mentioned in w16 but not implemented in w17 script

w16 log: 'Edge threshold unmet on both lookbacks.' The live w17 script has one baseline (first-poll snapshot). Either the LLM is hallucinating a dual-lookback it didn't deploy, or w16 used a different script. If dual-lookback (e.g., 30min + 4h baseline) was intended, it improves signal quality but i

Audit w16's deployed watcher source (if archived) against w17's. If dual-lookback was intentional, add a secondary rolling baseline (e.g., re-captured every 60 min) alongside the process-start baseline to confirm signal across timeframes.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

Cheap optionality: tight-to-the-money put with 24h tail, thin premium on a volatile stock (sNVDA). Probability of 0.20 d

Summary: Took sNVDA call #118 (w25, $0.25 premium, $5 collat, ~23h) and put #119 (w26, $0.23 premium, $5 collat, ~24h) — unchanged from last summary. Since w26 (now 140 min ago vs 82 min prior), watcher has polled ~58 more times at 60s cadence without firing: book confirmed empty (0 openIntents), no new audited options posted by option-writer. Watcher is armed (armed

No new options since #119 — confirmed by 140 min of uninterrupted 60s polling with no fire. Book is empty. Watcher calibration is good: the settle-window check fires ~16:28 UTC 06-11 (deal #118 expiry minus 5 min), roughly 63 min before the 23h fallback. The agent is correctly patient; root cause of zero new activity is counterparty supply, not agent failure.

All 4 settled deals trace to option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff or direct slug match). open_intents=0 and 140 min of polling with no templateHash=0xb3d6… match confirm option-writer has posted nothing since #119 (w26, 18:31 UTC). No other agent in the fleet writes audited Option intents.

Sound, solving the right problem. w25 and w26 reasoning (cheap OTM optionality on volatile sNVDA, thin premium relative to 20x max pay) is quantitative and mission-aligned. No churn: agent has not re-derived the same move; it correctly found nothing to act on across 17 repeat wakes and stayed quiet.

New audited Option intent (templateHash=0xb3d6… appears in open book, new intentId vs seenSet)

Settle window: nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956, fires ≈16:28 UTC 06-11 for deal #118)

23h fallback from arm time (fires ≈17:31 UTC 06-11 — backstop only)

Sole audited Option writer in fleet; all 4 of option-taker's settled deals are against it. Currently posting nothing (open_intents=0).

Buys mispriced options/binaries; does not write Options. No supply overlap.

None — open_intents=0 and 140 min of clean 60s polling with zero templateHash matches confirms the book has been empty since w26. Nothing takeable existed.

Fires on new audited-hash Option intents only — tight templateHash filter prevents action on non-audited deals, directly mission-aligned

Settle-window check (MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS) enables timely settlement of live deals without requiring a separate re-arm — correct for a taker holding positions to ex

seenIntentIds baseline on first poll prevents false fires on stale intents already in the book at arm time

23h fallback is a true backstop — expected to be pre-empted by the settle-window trigger for current deals

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS is hardcoded to earliest expiry at arm time — if a new deal with an earlier expiry is taken before the next arm, the settle-window trigger fire

Derive MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS dynamically by querying live deal expiries on each poll iteration (min settle_at across open deals) rather than hardcoding at script-write time. This keeps the trigger accurate across multiple deals with different ex

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS hardcoded at arm time

Currently set to 1781194956 (deal #118 expiry − 5 min). If a future deal with an earlier expiry is taken between arms, the settle trigger fires late for it. Low severity now since both live deals expire within ~1h of each other.

Compute min(settle_at) from live deal list on each poll iteration so the settle-window check stays accurate without re-arming.

Single audited Option writer in fleet

option-taker-matheus has exactly 1 reliable counterparty (option-writer-matheus). If option-writer enters a slow posting cycle or crashes, option-taker's deal rate drops to zero — as seen now (0 posts since 18:31 UTC). No other fleet agent writes templateHash=0xb3d6… intents.

Fleet: encourage a second agent to write audited Options, or widen option-taker's accepted template set if a second audited Option template is deployed.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Portfolio on-target, no drift >5%. Engine 1 intentionally paused (market doesn't buy premium in low-vol environments). R

vol spike ≥1%, new buyer intents, or 60-min fallback

Summary: sMSFT re-entry (0x1091 at 405/unit) confirmed filled by w41 ('rotation confirmed complete'); book recovered $89.15→$96.03, trimming drawdown from -10.85% to ~-4%. Engine 1 remains voluntarily paused — zero option writes since sNVDA call/put (#118/#119), no writes in 7 consecutive wakes. Watcher ARMED (armed=true, pidAlive=true, fallback 29 min), correctly wa

sMSFT rotation completed cleanly (+$6.88 book recovery since w38); Engine 1 self-paused after 7 consecutive no-fill writes — a sound decision, not a failure. Book at $96.03, realized PnL -$11.95 across 17 deals, zero new losses accumulating. Only counterparty that can unblock Engine 1 is option-taker-matheus, who has not posted buyer intents since the pause.

Engine 1 wrote sNVDA/sAAPL/ETH/BTC options; option-taker-matheus has 4 lifetime settled deals but zero new takes since the agent's last writes (#118/#119). The market for written options is thin — this is a fleet liquidity gap, not a pricing error.

Sound, solving the right problem. Agent correctly diagnosed a 7-consecutive-miss pattern on option writes, self-paused Engine 1 to stop burning gas/collateral, executed a clean contrarian rotation in Engine 2 (sAAPL→sMSFT confirmed by w41), and is now in disciplined monitor mode. Not churning, not drifting off-mission.

vol spike ≥1% on ETH or BTC (vs w44 baselines: ETH 1625.98, BTC 61772.99)

new option buyer intents (kind=unknown, both legs USDC)

MISSING: equity ranking change trigger — if sMSFT recovers and sNVDA/sAAPL becomes worst-2, Engine 2 rotation won't fire until the 60-min fallback; watcher has

Fills Engine 2 swap legs; confirmed 1 settled swap deal in recent history, 94 lifetime deals, 10 live quotes

Natural counterparty for Engine 1 option writes; 4 settled deals, health ok — but has not posted new buyer intents recently

External address that filled 2 swap deals; not a named agent, availability unpredictable

none — Engine 2 shows <5% drift on all positions (w44 confirmed); no open option intents matching Engine 1's mandate visible in the book; rebalancer-lior's 4 USDC BTC intent is below Engine 2's swap scope

Vol spike ≥1% on ETH/BTC directly maps to the Engine 1 resume condition — correct signal for this mission

New option buyer detection (USDC↔USDC unknown kind) targets the exact counterparty event that would unlock Engine 1

60-min fallback ensures Engine 2 drift checks run even in silent markets

Zero-LLM, has fallback, 30s poll cadence is appropriate for an hourly-thinking agent

No equity ranking change trigger: sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA price deltas vs baseline are not checked, so a ranking flip that should fire Engine 2 rotation is invisible

Option buyer detection heuristic (kind=unknown + both legs USDC) is underdocumented — could false-positive on unrelated unknown intents or miss buyers whose leg

Baseline prices are hardcoded from w44 snapshot; if the process restarts mid-cycle, the vol-spike delta resets to stale prices

Add equity ranking check to the poll loop: sample current sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA prices vs w44 baselines and fire if the worst-2 ranking order changes — this is the Engine 2 rotation trigger that currently only fires on the 60-min fallback, cost

No equity ranking trigger in watcher

Watcher fires on ETH/BTC vol and option buyers, but Engine 2's rotation logic depends on sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA relative ranking. A ranking change (e.g. sMSFT recovers past sNVDA) won't be caught until the 60-min fallback, delaying rotation by up to 59 min.

In the poll loop, compute pctMove for sAAPL, sMSFT, sNVDA vs baseline and call fireWake if the worst-2 set changes vs the w44 baseline ranking.

Option buyer intent detection may be unreliable

Filtering kind='unknown' + both legs symbol='USDC' is a heuristic inference, not a schema match. If option-taker-matheus or another buyer posts an intent with a different leg structure, the trigger silently misses it.

Cross-reference against a known filled option intent (e.g. the custom settled deal ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus) to confirm the leg schema, then tighten the filter or add a secondary check on contractAddress.

Engine 1 unblocked only by option-taker-matheus activity

With option-taker-matheus as the sole proven option buyer (4 deals), Engine 1 restart depends entirely on one agent's appetite. If option-taker-matheus doesn't post buyer intents, Engine 1 stays dark indefinitely regardless of vol.

Fleet-level: consider whether option-writer should post shorter-tenor / lower-premium options to attract polymarket-ljuba or external takers; or coordinate with option-taker-matheus's mission to confirm it's actively scanning option-writer's writes.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

sAAPL stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75) hit; new binary/option intent; fallback Jun11 20:00 UTC

Summary: Still holding 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 entry (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon). Watcher armed and polling every 60s — 412 min since w26 with no trigger fired, extending the prior 354-min confirmed-no-trigger window by ~58 min; price demonstrably remains in the $277–$304 band. The 1389-min fallback is a Jun11 20:00 UTC strategic check

Position is fully protected by the 60s oracle-polling loop (not the fallback); 412 min of no-trigger is affirmative evidence price is mid-band. The ~23h fallback is a pre-expiry assessment checkpoint — appropriate design. No action needed unless sAAPL crosses $277.34 or $303.75.

One open swap position in hold phase; no counterparty action required until price trigger or horizon. No mispriced binary/option intents have appeared (tertiary trigger silent across all 26 wakes since entry). 2 lifetime settled deals, $0.75 realized PnL.

Sound and solving the right problem. The agent correctly identified that the active phase is position management, not opportunity hunting. Edge erosion to ~1.5–3.1% (logged w22–w24) is expected convergence behavior as the Jun12 horizon approaches — the agent named this explicitly rather than chasing a spurious exit. Preemptive approval at w26 was a well-reasoned defensive action. No churn: 18/26 r

sAAPL oracle <= $277.34 (stop -4%) — 60s poll

sAAPL oracle >= $303.75 (forward +4.8%) — 60s poll

nowTs >= horizonTs (Jun12 20:00 UTC = 1781294400) — 60s poll

New binary/option intent on open book — 60s poll

Fallback: Jun11 20:00 UTC (~1389 min) — strategic reassessment, not protection

Primary exit swap counterparty for sAAPL→USDC; 94 settled deals, 10 live quotes, functioning hub

Could post opposing sAAPL swaps if sAAPL is stretched above average — directional overlap possible

None verifiable from this data. Tertiary trigger fires on any new binary/option intent, so the agent would wake to evaluate Polymarket mispricing. The watcher cannot pro-actively reprice against Polymarket between intents — it only reacts to new postings. If Polymarket's implied distribution shifts significantly mid-hold with no new intents posted, that repricing opportunity would be missed until

60s oracle polling directly guards the $277.34/$303.75 triggers — position is never more than 60s away from detection

Horizon expiry check uses blockchain time (nowTs) not wall-clock — correct for on-chain settlement

Fallback anchored to Jun11 20:00 UTC (24h before expiry) is a well-chosen strategic checkpoint to assess maker candidates before the window closes

FALLBACK_MS floor of 4h ensures watcher doesn't arm with a near-zero or negative delay if script restarts post-fallback-deadline

Tertiary trigger on new binary/option intents keeps opportunity discovery reactive without busy-polling Polymarket

No Polymarket fetch on each poll cycle: if Polymarket's implied distribution moves significantly between intent postings, the mispricing is invisible until the

horizonTs loaded from state.json on first poll only — if state.json is updated externally (e.g. corrected horizon), the watcher won't pick it up until restart

Add a periodic Polymarket snapshot fetch (e.g. every 5th poll iteration, ~5 min) to check if any currently-open binary/option intents became mispriced due to distribution shifts — this closes the gap where the tertiary trigger requires a NE

Polymarket repricing blind spot between intent postings

The watcher's tertiary trigger only fires when a NEW intent appears on the book. If an existing intent becomes mispriced against Polymarket (probability shift, news event) during the 1389-min fallback window, the agent won't evaluate it until the Jun11 checkpoint or a new posting coincidentally appe

Add lightweight Polymarket fetch every N poll cycles inside runWatchLoop; if any existing open intent's price diverges from Polymarket implied by > threshold, fireWake. This is the highest-leverage addition given the mission is Polymarket-vs-book arbitrage.

horizonTs stale-read risk

horizonTs is populated from state.json on the first poll iteration and never re-read. The agent corrected the horizon at w25 (state.json updated to Jun12 20:00 UTC). If the watcher was already running when the correction was made, it may hold a stale horizonTs in memory.

Re-read horizonTs from state.json each poll cycle (cheap fs read) rather than caching it — eliminates any stale-value risk on corrections.

Position is fully protected by the 60s oracle-polling loop (not the fallback); 412 min of no-trigger is affirmative evidence price is mid-band. The ~23h fallback is a pre-expiry assessment checkpoint — appropriate design. No action needed unless sAAPL crosses $277.34 or $303.75.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

#1053 (7 USDC BTC, expired), #1089 (4 USDC ETH, expired), #1105 (BTC +1.56% premium, amount unconfirmed small), #1156 (4 USDC ETH, now expired per open_intents=0) — all below LP's 12 USDC floor; 13 historical settled deals with LP-Maker-Matheus prove LP fills are available when lot size is adequate

own intent #1156 resolved (filled or expired) — ownIntentResolved poll every 60s

5/5 of last settled deals; sole reliable swap maker; 93 deals, 11 open quotes, health ok — but enforces ≥12 USDC fill floor that rejects eve

taker not a maker; one historical deal was opportunistic, not a repeatable swap source

watches own intent (#1156) for resolution — correct trigger for a one-intent-at-a-time DCA mission

60s poll cadence appropriate for intent expiry window

explicit UTC fallback (21:30) prevents orphaned watcher if intent silently expires

zero-LLM, deterministic, can't fire on book-non-empty

watcher correctly fires on resolution but next wake will re-post another sub-12 USDC lot with same wrong reasoning — the script is sound, the agent logic it tri

DCA lot size structurally below LP's 12 USDC minimum fill floor

Every intent since at least w37 is sub-12 USDC (#1053: 7 USDC, #1089: 4 USDC, #1156: 4 USDC). LP-Maker-Matheus has a ≥12 USDC fill floor; these lots are rejected before oracle price is even evaluated. Agent's 'patient slice' sizing is the direct cause of 0 recent fills despite LP being available.

Edit CLAUDE.md to enforce minimum DCA slice ≥ 12 USDC. The 13 historical settled deals prove LP fills when lot size is adequate.

Oracle-premium tolerance is the wrong diagnostic — burning wakes on irrelevant tuning

W39 frames the problem as LP's 0.43-1.56% spread and posts BTC at +1.56% as the fix. This is an incorrect model: LP's floor is quantity-based, not price-based. Each iteration (now 7+ wakes) compounds the misdiagnosis and consumes tokens ($1.09 last wake alone) with zero probability of a fill.

Correct root-cause reasoning in CLAUDE.md: LP fill failures on sub-12 USDC lots are quantity rejections, not oracle-premium rejections. Remove premium-escalation as a fill-failure remedy.

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Pre-market window; CLAUDE.md enforces 09:30–16:00 ET only. No fills possible now by design. 2 settled deals both with LP-Maker-Matheus confirm the path clears at open.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) via 30-second poll loop

fallback at 14:00 UTC (open + 30 min) if poll misses

Both settled deals were LP-Maker fills; LP has live sNVDA quote (12 USDC lot) and is confirmed able to fill Stacker's 0.50 USDC slices

Fires exactly at epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) — the only moment Stacker is allowed to act

30-second poll cadence is appropriate: lightweight, zero-LLM, no book dependency

Fallback at open+30 min (14:00 UTC) is a sensible safety net; nextFallbackMin=129 confirms it resolves to ~14:00 UTC from current ~11:51 UTC

No book-watching needed for a pure DCA mission — correctly omitted

fallbackMs when already past open evaluates to 30 min from invocation time, which is correct but implicit — a comment would prevent future confusion

LP lot-size headroom shrinks as sNVDA price rises

LP posts 12 USDC lots; Stacker posts 0.50 USDC. Confirmed fills show LP accepts sub-lot today, but if LP tightens minimums or oracle price moves, 0.50 USDC may become un-fillable. Currently 9.00 USDC / 18 wakes remaining.

Monitor: if next fill at 13:30 fails despite LP live, check whether LP minimum crossed 0.50 USDC threshold and adjust slice size in CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

US market open 13:30 UTC June 11 (sNVDA -2.14% buy-dip) or 4h fallback

Not a failure — agent is executing correctly. Structural note: 5/5 settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; zero diversification of counterparty. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote, no fallback taker exists. Current intent 0x045e (20 USDC) is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor — fillable now.

ownIntentResolved: fires when 0x045e fills or expires

2h fallback (120 min, ~74 min remaining)

All 5 settled deals; 11 open quotes; 20 USDC intent is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor

Could theoretically take sNVDA → USDC side, but lot-size bug (4 USDC intents) means it's currently misfiring; not a reliable fill source

Fires on ownIntentResolved — exact event the agent needs (fill or expiry before re-evaluating)

2h fallback appropriate for a patient DCA agent averaging 153-min gaps

Zero-LLM; intent address hardcoded cleanly; PID written at startup

No early-wake on significant price move — if sNVDA dislocation reverses sharply (e.g. +1% bounce), agent holds the 0x045e intent until expiry rather than cancel

Near budget exhaustion — no slice logic for <full-size remainder

After 56 USDC deployed (18+18+20), ~24.2 USDC remains. If 0x045e fills, ~4.2 USDC left — below the 18-20 USDC slice floor. Agent may stall at next wake with no actionable path despite continued dislocation.

Add minimum-remainder check: if remaining USDC < 10, skip further DCA slices and log 'budget nearly exhausted'; or allow a partial final slice down to 10 USDC floor.

Single counterparty concentration

5/5 settled deals vs LP-Maker-Matheus only. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote (as noted in Step-1: LP missing ETH ask and BTC ask at times), 0x045e would expire unfilled with no alternative taker.

Low priority given LP's current health (93 deals, 11 quotes), but worth noting for resilience — no agent fix needed now, monitor LP sNVDA quote coverage.

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

985 eroded to 0.22%; 989 SSV sell drifted to 2.29% vs 1% target (rival at 0.49%); 948/949 expiring in 13-14 min — re-quo

18 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781103961; next poll 60s

Summary: Crashed at w67/14:36, 375 min ago — confirmed: armed=false, pidAlive=false. Step-1 focus answered: open_intents=0, meaning the full 9-intent bait suite (987 sAAPL-sell 0.99%, 988 sAAPL-buy 1.01%, 1001 sNVDA, 948 BTC-sell, 949 ETH-sell, plus 4 others posted w66) has fully expired unmanaged — 948/949 were already flagged 'expiring in 13-14 min' at the moment o

All 9 bait intents from the w67 suite have expired (open_intents=0); no bait is live, no watcher is running. The crash has now cost the agent at minimum 375 min of market presence during LP-Maker-Matheus's most active window (94 deals). Lifetime realized PnL of -$2.32 on $61.36 token spend means the strategy is burning capital even when healthy.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — process dead with no restart path. open_intents=0 confirms full bait suite (987, 988, 1001, 948, 949 + w66 suite) expired unmanaged. The 2h hard fallback inside the watcher script cannot fire because the watcher process itself is go

Sound reasoning while alive — w61–w67 show disciplined quote hygiene (cancel floors, duplicate detection, pre-expiry reposting, honeypot seeding of seenEdgeIds). Solving the right problem. But the agent is now solving nothing: the crash erases all accumulated quote state and the live bait presence that the rebalance strategy depends on.

scan-edges: new takeable edge ≥1% (excluding seenEdgeIds 779/836/869)

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest intent TTL

check-my-quotes: cancel commands triggered by erosion/undercut

MISSING: external process supervisor — the 2h fallback is internal to the dead watcher; it cannot fire once the process exits

All 10 recent settled swaps are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; LP is the rebalance-buy counterparty that took deals 98/99 (+$0.28 edge at w63)

Lior posts delivered swaps that Vulture could take as taker; current 4 USDC BTC intent is below Lior's 12 USDC LP floor but Vulture has diff

Mimic takes BinaryBets — Vulture posts bait BinaryBet-adjacent intents; overlap possible if Vulture reposted crypto-directional bait

Unmeasurable precisely, but structurally certain: LP-Maker-Matheus has been active for 375+ min of Vulture's downtime. With LP running 10 live quotes and filling swaps continuously, Vulture's scan-edges tool would have found fillable edges. No watcher running = no scans = 0 edges evaluated in 375 min.

30s poll cadence is appropriate for a latency-sensitive vulture strategy

seenEdgeIds pre-seeded with confirmed honeypots (779, 836, 869) prevents re-evaluation of known traps

Dual trigger: scan-edges for taker opportunities + check-my-quotes for bait hygiene — covers both sides of the mission

Pre-expiry trigger (5 min before TTL) prevents silent expiry of bait suite

2h hard fallback ensures recovery from thin-book idle periods

No external supervisor: the 2h fallback is internal — when the process dies, the fallback dies with it. This is the direct cause of the current 375-min outage.

No restart-on-crash signal: three agents (Bear-Yosher, Stacker-Massimo, Vulture-Andrew) all share this failure mode — suggests a core platform gap, not agent-sp

Add a cron-based external watchdog at the core/SDK level that checks pidAlive for all watchers every 10–15 min and restarts dead ones — this single fix would have prevented all three current crashes.

Watcher process crash with no external restart — fleet-wide

Three agents (Vulture-Andrew 375 min, Bear-Yosher 572 min, Stacker-Massimo 422 min) are all armed=false/pidAlive=false simultaneously. The internal 2h fallback inside each watcher script cannot fire after the process exits. No supervisor restarts them.

Implement a platform-level cron supervisor (e.g., every 10 min) that checks pidAlive for all registered watchers and re-runs `npm run watch` for any found dead. This is a single core fix that recovers all three agents immediately.

Strategy net-negative: -$2.32 realized PnL on $61.36 lifetime token spend

38 deals settled, all swaps ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus, with -$2.32 realized PnL. Even accounting for token costs as overhead, the realized trading edge is negative. The +$0.28 edge on deals 98/99 (w63) is the only clearly profitable event cited in recent wakes. Bait-suite approach may be generating churn w

After crash recovery, audit the 38 settled deals for per-deal PnL breakdown. If LP is consistently the counterparty, check whether the bait intents are being taken at worse prices than expected (LP may be filling at mid rather than Vulture's posted edge). Tighten edge floor or switch bait TTL to sho

3 CRASHED, 1 HUB HOLDS

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Arb-Hunter-Tom, Swing-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Momentum-Nikita, 0xBd6a

ACTIVE but single-hub — 94/129 settled deals (73%) route through LP; 10 live quo

Bear-Yosher → Mimic-Ljuba (unidirectional supply)

FROZEN — Bear crashed 574 min; board empty across wakes w55–w60; 7 pre-crash in-

PAUSED — writer in voluntary monitor mode since #118/#119; book empty 140+ min;

DEAD — both agents undeployed (wake_script_source=null, $0 lifetime tokens); 0 I

Bear-Yosher watcher process died twice (w40/w41); 4h fallback at ~15:17 UTC never fired; now 574 min dark, armed=false/p

BinaryBet board empty → Mimic-Ljuba starved (wakes w55–w60 all 'edge floor ≥3pp unmet / board empty'); Arb-Hunter-Tom bi

14/16 Mimic settled deals were Bear↔Mimic BinaryBets; Arb 0 binary intents in open book; Bear armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null

LP-Maker-Matheus is the only functioning swap maker in the fleet

All active takers (Arb-Hunter-Tom, Swing-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Momentum-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo pre-crash) depend on

LP 94/129 settled deals (73%); no other Swap-template maker in open book or agent roster; 10 live LP quotes span all 6 assets

Rebalancer-Lior posts 4 USDC lots against LP's 12 USDC minimum fill floor, misdiagnoses blocker as oracle-premium and it

Every sub-12 USDC intent expires unfilled regardless of premium; agent burns tokens each wake cycling the wrong paramete

#1053 (7 USDC BTC, expired), #1089 (4 USDC ETH, expired), #1105 (BTC +1.56% premium, small lot, expired), #1156 (4 USDC ETH, expired); current open-book entry 4 USDC BTC (1 min left) — 15th+ small-lot

Index-maker never deployed (0 wakes, $0 tokens, wake_script_source=null) — the sequentially blocking dependency for the

Index-taker has no counterparty and no path to activation; IndexBasket is permanently absent from the funnel; 0/1256 pos

Both index-maker and index-taker: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, $0 lifetime tokens; 0 IndexBasket in funnel

Vulture-Andrew crashed at w67 (375 min ago, armed=false/pidAlive=false); bait suite of 9 intents (987/988/1001/948/949 +

Full bait suite expired with open_intents=0; Arb-Hunter-Tom loses its bait arbitrage surface in addition to the binary s

Vulture open_intents=0 confirmed; armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null; Arb 11 settled deals all pre-crash swaps; 15+ consecutive wait cycles with no arb edge

Stacker-Massimo watcher transitioned from armed/pidAlive=true (last run, nextFallbackMin=189) to armed=false/pidAlive=fa

Pre-market accumulation agent offline; scheduled 13:30 UTC open entry will not fire unless manually restarted; 2 prior L

Watcher block: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; orient confirms 422 min dark; Step-2 summary text ('still armed') was stale vs ground-truth watcher block — watcher block is authorita

Three confirmed crashes, no auto-restart — platform has no watcher supervisor

Bear-Yosher (574 min), Vulture-Andrew (375 min), Stacker-Massimo (422 min) all show armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. Once a watcher process dies, no mechanism exists to revive it — not even a deeply-set fallback can fire when the process hosting it is gone. Combined: BinaryBet market frozen, bait suite expired, pre-market stack offline.

All three: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; Bear last wake w41 ~11:17 UTC; Vulture last wake w67 ~14:36 UTC; Stacker transitioned from armed to crashed between runs

Implement a fleet-level supervisor process that polls watcher state every 5–10 min and auto-restarts any agent with armed=false + pidAlive=false; this is the single highest-leverage core platform fix

LP-Maker-Matheus SPOF: 73% of fleet throughput through one agent

94/129 settled deals (73%) route through LP; all 8 active taker agents have LP as their sole or primary counterparty. No second swap maker exists. An LP crash would immediately halt Arb-Hunter-Tom (11 deals all LP), Swing-Nikita (5/5 LP), Momentum-Nikita (sole swap counterparty), Rebalancer-Lior (13 fills all LP), and Stacker-Massimo (2/2 LP). The fleet is structurally LP-dependent.

LP 94/129 settled (73%); 10 live quotes covering 6 assets; open book shows 11/13 entries are LP-originated; no other Swap-template maker in roster

Deploy or recruit a second swap maker to distribute hub dependency; until then LP is critical infrastructure, not a participant — treat LP health as a fleet-level alert

Rebalancer-Lior: 40+ wakes iterating wrong variable, every intent structurally unfillable

Agent has posted sub-12 USDC lots (#1053 7 USDC, #1089 4 USDC, #1105 small BTC, #1156 4 USDC ETH) against LP's confirmed 12 USDC minimum fill floor. Each intent expires unfilled regardless of oracle-premium tuning. The agent continues adjusting premium tolerance, burning tokens on a variable that is not the constraint. Fix is a single lot-size check.

Current open-book: 4 USDC BTC (1 min left, below floor); 13 historical LP fills all ≥12 USDC prove the path; premium adjustments (+1.56% at #1105) have had zero effect

Add a minimum-lot check (≥12 USDC) to Rebalancer-Lior's CLAUDE.md and wake-script before any intent is posted; the oracle-premium logic is sound — the lot-size gate is the missing guard

BinaryBet market frozen 574 min — two takers blocked, no supply path

Bear-Yosher was the fleet's sole BinaryBet supply source. Crashed at w40/w41, board empty across Mimic wakes w55–w60 and Arb-Hunter-Tom's 15+ consecutive wait cycles. 7 pre-crash in-flight bets will oracle-settle correctly; no new bets can be originated until Bear restarts. Mimic has self-originated a non-Bear flow to survive but BinaryBet volume is zero.

14/16 Mimic settled deals were Bear↔Mimic BinaryBets; Arb binary surface dark since Bear crash; open book: 0 BinaryBet template intents

Restart Bear-Yosher immediately (manual); secondarily consider whether a second binary-bet poster is needed to prevent a single crash from freezing the entire BinaryBet market

IndexBasket market bilaterally absent — 13 consecutive null cycles, no self-resolving path

Index-maker and index-taker both have wake_script_source=null, $0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. Neither has ever executed. This is a bilateral deployment gap: index-taker cannot activate until index-maker posts intents, and index-maker cannot post without being deployed. The funnel has no IndexBasket entries across all 1256 posted intents.

0 IndexBasket / 1256 posted / 129 settled; both agents armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null/$0 tokens for 13 cycles

Deploy index-maker first (sequential blocker); index-taker's deployment is contingent on index-maker being live and posting; do not deploy them simultaneously without confirming index-maker produces valid intents

Options market paused but healthy — writer monitoring drawdown recovery

Option-writer in voluntary monitor mode: sMSFT book recovered $89.15→$96.03, trimming drawdown from −10.85% to ~−4%. Writer armed with 19 min fallback, will resume Engine 1 when threshold clears. Option-taker polling at 60s cadence (1192 min fallback), book confirmed empty 140 min — correctly patient.

Option-writer: armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=19; option-taker: armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=1192; 4 settled deals total, no new writes since #118/#119

None required — both agents functioning correctly; options volume will resume when writer's drawdown guard clears

Build a watcher supervisor: poll armed + pidAlive every 5–10 min fleet-wide, auto-restart any agent where both are false — three simultaneous crashes with no recovery path is the highest-leverage platform gap; no agent-level fix can solve this

Manually restart Bear-Yosher and Vulture-Andrew now — BinaryBet market frozen 574 min and bait suite expired; Mimic-Ljuba and Arb-Hunter-Tom are both blocked until Bear is live; Arb loses its second active surface (bait arbitrage) until Vulture recovers

Patch Rebalancer-Lior with a ≥12 USDC lot-size gate before intent posting — the fix is a single constraint check; 40+ wakes of token burn on intents that structurally cannot fill ends immediately

Deploy Index-maker (then Index-taker) in sequence — IndexBasket is 0% of funnel across 13 cycles; index-maker is the sequential blocker and must post live intents before index-taker has any activation path

Deploy a second swap maker to reduce LP-Maker-Matheus SPOF — 73% of settled deals (94/129) through one agent means an LP crash halts all taker activity fleet-wide; this is the architectural risk that amplifies every other outage

Worse vs last run — Stacker-Massimo has transitioned from armed/waiting (pidAlive=true, fallback for 13:30 UTC epoch) to fully crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, last_wake=422 min), adding a third confirmed crash alongside Bear-Yosher (572 min dark, +56 min elapsed) and Vulture-Andrew (373 min da

Three confirmed crashes: Bear-Yosher (armed=false/pidAlive=false, 572 min), Vulture-Andrew (armed=false/pidAlive=false, 373 min), Stacker-Massimo (armed=false/pidAlive=false, 422 min — was armed last

LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole functioning market hub: 94 settled deals, 10 live quotes, $65.96/5h burn — all recent swap activity routes through it.

7 Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba [BinaryBet] 'live' entries in recent deals despite Bear crashed 572 min — need classification: pre-crash in-flight vs Mimic self-originated.

Rebalancer-Lior lot-size misdiagnosis persists: 4 USDC BTC intent (13 min left) visible in open book, still below LP's 12 USDC fill floor.

Index-maker and Index-taker: 12th consecutive null cycle, zero deployment, IndexBasket market completely absent from the funnel (1242 posted, 128 settled, 0 IndexBasket).

Two LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom swaps appear settled in recent deals — confirm these are fresh (post-last-run) takes; with Bear still crashed at 572 min the binary surface remains dark, so is the swap arb surface (LP's current ETH/BTC

Still crashed: armed=false, pidAlive=false, 572 min dark (up from 516 min last run, +56 min elapsed with no recovery) — is there any new evidence of watcher resurrection, and what is the current on-chain status of the 7 Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-

12th consecutive null cycle: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, $0 tokens, 0 IndexBasket intents ever posted — has anything changed at all this cycle, or is this another zero-delta run?

12th consecutive null cycle: armed=false, pidAlive=false, $0 tokens — has anything changed, and with index-maker still undeployed (its sole counterparty), is there any path to activation without index-maker first coming live?

94 settled deals (+8 since last run), 10 live quotes, $65.96/5h burn — prior flagged missing ETH ask and BTC ask; are those now covered in the current open book, and are the active stock-pair quotes (sMSFT, sNVDA, sAAPL) correctly priced vs

Recent deals list contains 7 Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba [BinaryBet] entries marked 'live' — prior summary (truncated) suggested Mimic self-originated something; confirm whether these are (a) old in-flight bets from before Bear crashed, (b) M

Last wake 426 min ago, armed=true/pidAlive=true with 59 min to next fallback — prior flagged that the watcher uses a single static baseline set at arm-time (now 426+ min stale); when the fallback fires in ~59 min, will the agent re-derive f

Resting correctly since w26 (138 min ago), 1204-min fallback armed — has option-writer posted any new options since the sNVDA call (#118) and put (#119) pair, and if option-writer's current book is empty (0 openIntents), is the 1204-min fal

Last wake 45 min ago, 0 open intents, Engine 1 halted, Engine 2 rotating — did the sMSFT re-entry (intent 0x1091 at 405/unit) fill, and has the agent posted any new options since sNVDA call/put (#118/#119)? With $0 burn in last 5h and 0 ope

Holding 0.085722 sAAPL with stop $277.34 / target $303.75 / Jun12 20:00 UTC deadline, last wake 410 min ago, 1391-min fallback — has the stop or target been crossed since the last wake, and is the 23+ hour remaining fallback leaving the pos

4 USDC BTC intent visible in open book with 13 min remaining — this is the same sub-12 USDC lot pattern the prior identified as the root blocker (LP's 12 USDC fill floor); has any wake since last summary shown the agent recognizing the floo

Prior showed armed=true/pidAlive=true targeting 13:30 UTC epoch (1781098200); current state is armed=false/pidAlive=false, last_wake=422 min ago (~13:02 UTC) — did the epoch fire at 13:30 UTC and if so what happened: did the agent execute i

Last wake 42 min ago, 0 open intents — prior showed 20 USDC intent 0x045e open (w23, -2.18% dislocation, ~24.2 USDC remaining of ~80 USDC budget); did 0x045e settle or expire, and with 56 USDC committed across 3 slices and budget nearly dep

Still crashed: armed=false, pidAlive=false, 373 min dark — prior showed bait suite (987 sAAPL-sell, 988 sAAPL-buy, 1001 sNVDA, 948 BTC-sell, 949 ETH-sell) live at w67/14:36; are any of these bait intents still open in the book or have they

Restart bear-yosher watcher immediately — 572 min crashed, binary surface completely dark, Mimic-Ljuba starved of flow, 7 live BinaryBet deals unmonitored.

Restart vulture-andrew watcher — 373 min crashed, bait suite (987/988/1001/948/949) expiring unmonitored, no agent covering mispricing patrol.

Investigate stacker-massimo crash — transitioned from armed (13:30 UTC epoch) to armed=false/pidAlive=false; determine if first DCA swap executed before crash or if epoch never fired.

Fix rebalancer-lior lot size — increase DCA slice from 4 USDC to ≥12 USDC to clear LP-Maker-Matheus's fill floor; oracle-premium tuning is the wrong lever.

Deploy index-maker and index-taker — 12 null cycles, IndexBasket market contributes 0 to the 1242-posted/128-settled funnel; the entire product surface is absent.