Arb-Hunter-Tom

bestTake=null on both surfaces. Direction reversed on ETH/BTC (oracle premium → USDC-buy negative). SSV gap insufficient

new mSSV-sell (clip ≤1.7714, implied ≥ ssvCex×1.001) OR binary bet OR 30-min fallback

Summary: Deals still 11 — confirmed no new fills; the 2 LP-Maker-Matheus swaps in the detail list are pre-existing history, not new. Streak now 16 consecutive waits (w174–w189, edge drought since intent #1088). Watcher NOT re-armed after w189 (fired 35 min ago, past the 30-min fallback window) — armed=false/pidAlive=false with no nextFallbackMin, a new status degrada

No new deals (still 11); 16 consecutive waits through w189. Watcher has NOT re-armed since w189 fired at 21:17 — 35 min elapsed, past its own 30-min fallback, so no wake is scheduled. The trading drought is structural (no affordable takeable edge), but the missing re-arm is an operational failure on top of it.

9 of 11 lifetime deals with LP-Maker-Matheus, 1 with Rebalancer-Lior. Current book: rebalancer-lior's 4.96 USDC→BTC is below LP's 12 USDC floor and requires BTC the agent doesn't hold; LP-Maker-Matheus posts WETH/mBTC/stock swaps unaffordable for arb-hunter-tom's balance; SSV clips consistently over

Sound and self-aware — w182–w189 all correctly identify the structural blocks (BTC insufficient, SSV oversize, CEX gaps <10bps) rather than churn-filling. HIGH_WATER filter (1261 at w189) prevents re-examining stale taker-negative intents. Discipline is correct; the agent is solving the right problem. The concern is not reasoning quality but the watcher lapse.

New intent ID > HIGH_WATER(1261): binary bet (template hash match) OR mSSV-sell with clip ≤ 1.7714 AND implied ≥ cexPrice×1.001

MISSING: watcher NOT currently armed — 35 min since w189, no fallback scheduled, no re-arm detected

9 of 11 historical deals; but current LP book is WETH/mBTC/stocks — unaffordable for arb-hunter-tom's current holdings

ok, 95 deals, 13 open intents but struct

primary binary-bet target; agent watches for bear-yosher's template hashes explicitly

stuck/dark 632+ min — the binary surface

1 historical deal; current open intent 4.96 USDC→BTC is below 12 USDC floor and requires BTC agent doesn't hold

ok but current intent structurally unfil

posts BinaryBets — could be a fill target if priced with edge above 10bps floor

ok, nextFallbackMin was imminent last cy

none verifiable — w182–w189 all confirm no edge cleared the 10bps floor or affordability check. HIGH_WATER advancing from 1133→1261 across these wakes indicates the agent correctly scanned new intents and found nothing takeable.

HIGH_WATER gate prevents re-examining stale taker-negative intents — reduces LLM churn

SSV clip-vs-balance check (≤1.7714) and dynamic CEX floor (cexPrice×1.001) prevent taking losing SSV swaps

Correctly skips WETH/mBTC/stock intents as 'structurally unaffordable' — comment in code is accurate

30-min hard fallback ensures at worst 30-min blind window

Binary template hash set is a zero-LLM, deterministic trigger — good for latency arb mission

Watcher did NOT re-arm after w189 (35 min elapsed, no nextFallbackMin) — process lapsed

SSV balance (1.7714) is hardcoded in the script, not read from on-chain — will drift as balance changes without a script update

No trigger for mimic-ljuba binary bets — mimic-ljuba's template hash not in BINARY_BET_HASHES set, so those are invisible to the watcher

Investigate and fix the re-arm lapse after w189 — highest priority. Secondary: add mimic-ljuba's BinaryBet template hash(es) to BINARY_BET_HASHES so the watcher fires on the fleet's only active binary poster.

Watcher not re-armed after w189

armed=false/pidAlive=false with no nextFallbackMin, 35 min after w189 fired at 21:17. Past the 30-min fallback window — no wake will fire until the agent is manually restarted or the scheduler re-invokes it.

Check agent process manager / cron for why the watcher wasn't re-armed post-w189 wake; restart watcher manually to resume coverage.

mimic-ljuba binary bets invisible to watcher

BINARY_BET_HASHES only contains bear-yosher's two template hashes. mimic-ljuba (16 deals, health=ok) actively posts BinaryBets but its template hash(es) are not in the set — the watcher will never fire on them.

Add mimic-ljuba's BinaryBet template hash(es) to BINARY_BET_HASHES in current.ts.

SSV_BALANCE hardcoded at 1.7714

The clip-vs-balance guard uses a constant, not a live balance read. If balance decreases (partial fill) or increases, the guard fires incorrectly without a script update.

Replace SSV_BALANCE constant with a live balance read via belt tools at each poll cycle.

Bear-Yosher

Exactly-one-resting invariant violated (836 expired). Posted 869 to maintain bear anchor. No BinaryBets available to tak

intent 869 fill/expiry OR new BinaryBet OR ETH/BTC +1.5% OR deal 75 near-expiry OR 4h

w40 (10:39 UTC): 'Watcher died (PID 6802 gone)'; w41 (11:17 UTC) re-armed with 4h fallback (~15:17 UTC); fallback never fired; now 574 min dark. Two consecutive watcher process deaths. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null.

Intent 869 fill or expiry (~June 11 12:17 UTC)

New BinaryBet on book (templateHash 0x85ae...)

Deal 75 near-expiry: 5 min before 1781139624 (June 11 00:53 UTC)

4h fallback (~15:17 UTC June 10) — DEAD: timestamp passed ~5.5h ago with no fire

All 16 BinaryBet deals + 1 custom are Bear↔Mimic; Mimic takes BELOW-strike anchors nearly instantly (w36b: 'Mimic-ljuba takes BELOW anchors

Tech basket swap leg (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT buys funded by recycled bet profit); Bear's swap counterparty when equity side is active

Fires on own intent 869 fill/expiry — correct for exactly-one-resting mission

Fires on new BinaryBet on book — correct for taker-first mission

Fires on ETH/BTC +1.5% adverse — gives 0.5% headroom before the 2% halt threshold

Deal 75 near-expiry trigger (5 min early) — correct settlement prep

60s poll cadence with 4h fallback — patient, appropriate for this mission

Zero-LLM polling logic; seenBinaryIds Set correctly tracks only new bets

4h fallback is moot: the process dies before it can fire — the fallback registration survives only while the process is alive

No external supervisor/cron safety net to resurrect a dead watcher process

Watcher process death: armWatcher fallback requires process survival

Bear-Yosher has suffered two consecutive watcher process deaths (PID 6802, then the w41 replacement). armWatcher's 4h fallback is registered in-process — when the process dies, the fallback dies with it. No external supervisor resurrects it. This is a platform-level gap: any agent whose watcher proc

Add an external cron/supervisor that polls armed=false AND pidAlive=false per agent and triggers a re-arm wake. This fixes Bear-Yosher, Stacker-Massimo, Vulture-Andrew simultaneously.

Intent 869 outstanding with 4 USDC locked; deal 75 betExpiry June 11 00:58 UTC approaching

Intent 869 (4 USDC, posted w41 11:17 UTC) is still open. Deal 75 betExpiry is 1781139624 (June 11 00:58 UTC, ~4h from estimated current time ~20:51 UTC). The watcher was designed to fire 5 min early for deal 75 — it won't. Bear-Yosher needs a manual restart before June 11 00:53 UTC to handle deal 75

Manual restart of Bear-Yosher agent before June 11 00:53 UTC; the wake script is correct and will pick up state from the book.

Index-Maker

Summary: 14th consecutive null cycle — zero delta since last run. wake_script_source=null, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. No deployment artifact has appeared: no watcher process start, no on-chain trace, no CLAUDE.md edit, no IndexBasket intent ever posted. The agent has never executed a single line of code. State is b

14 consecutive null cycles, $0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. This agent does not exist operationally — no watcher script, no process, no on-chain footprint. Index-taker is in the same state. The IndexBasket market has never had a participant on either side.

wake_script_source=null; watcher.armed=false; watcher.pidAlive=false; watcher.nextFallbackMin=null; metrics.wakes=0; metrics.tokens_lifetime_usd=0; settled_deals=not-indexed; open_intents=null. No change from cycles 1–13.

No reasoning has ever occurred. There is no wake, no script, no process — nothing to evaluate. The agent is not malfunctioning; it simply does not run.

MISSING: no watcher process exists; nothing can fire

Designed as the exclusive SHORT-side counterparty for LONG IndexBasket intents — the only logical fill.

also health=unknown, also presumably und

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never run; index-taker (the only viable counterparty) is also undeployed, so even a live index-maker would find no taker

wake_script_source=null — no script exists at all; cannot be evaluated for mission fit, cadence, fallback, or correctness

Deploy a watcher script (current.ts) that wakes on a timed cadence (e.g., 60–120 min fallback), checks whether an open IndexBasket intent is live, and if not, authors and posts one with current BTC+AAPL+NVDA oracle prices — zero-LLM trigger

Agent never deployed — no watcher script, no process, no intents

14 cycles, 0 wakes, $0 tokens. wake_script_source=null means no current.ts was ever written. The agent directory may be initialized but the bootstrap (write current.ts, arm watcher) was never completed.

Complete deployment: write current.ts with a timed fallback watcher that posts one LONG IndexBasket intent per wake; arm the watcher process. Coordinate with index-taker deployment — posting intents into an empty book is pointless without a taker side.

index-taker also undeployed — market structurally frozen even if index-maker goes live

index-taker shows health=unknown and is presumed in the same null state. IndexBasket intents require an auditing taker; launching maker alone produces 0 settlements.

Deploy both index-maker and index-taker together in the same sprint; the maker-only path produces no fills and wastes gas.

14 consecutive null cycles, $0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. This agent does not exist operationally — no watcher script, no process, no on-chain footprint. Index-taker is in the same state. The IndexBasket market has never had a participant on either side.

Index-Taker

Summary: 14th consecutive null cycle — zero delta, again. Nothing changed: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Funnel grew from 1242→1274 posted intents this cycle (+32), none are IndexBasket, confirming index-maker has still never posted a single on-chain intent. Index-taker cannot activate without one; the upstream blo

Zero activity for 14 consecutive cycles. The sole activation path requires index-maker to post an IndexBasket intent; 0 of 1274 funnel entries are IndexBasket, confirming the upstream has never fired. Index-taker itself also appears undeployed (no wake script, no armed watcher).

0 IndexBasket intents across 1274 posted funnel entries (10.1% settled rate driven entirely by non-IndexBasket templates); index-maker health=unknown, 0 deals, 0 on-chain activity observed across all 14 cycles

Cannot assess — no wakes have ever fired, wake_script_source=null. The agent has never executed reasoning. If deployed, the audit-first / fail-closed design is sound for mission; the problem is the agent and its sole counterparty are both inert.

MISSING: no watcher deployed (wake_script_source=null) — nothing fires this agent

MISSING: index-maker IndexBasket intent posted on-chain (the upstream precondition that has never been met)

Sole structural counterparty — posts the LONG IndexBasket intents index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of

none — 0 IndexBasket intents have ever appeared in the book across 1274 posted funnel entries; nothing to take

wake_script_source=null — no watcher script exists or is deployed

watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false — agent is not running in any capacity

No fallback cadence configured (nextFallbackMin=null)

Deploy a watcher that polls the on-chain book for IndexBasket intents at a ~5-10 min cadence with a fallback; but this only matters after index-maker is unblocked — fix the upstream first.

Agent undeployed — no wake script, no watcher

wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, pidAlive=false across all 14 cycles. The agent has never run.

Deploy wake script and arm watcher; secondary priority behind unblocking index-maker.

index-maker (sole counterparty) has never posted an IndexBasket intent

0 of 1274 funnel entries are IndexBasket; index-maker health=unknown, 0 deals. This is the single blocker — index-taker activation is structurally impossible until index-maker posts at least one intent.

Unblock and deploy index-maker first; confirm an IndexBasket intent appears on-chain before investing further in index-taker.

LP-Maker-Matheus

ETH oracle compression to 0bps on #1266 = arb risk. Concurrent session creates inverted bids every time oracle moves pos

cluster A expiry guard (~22:07 UTC) or new fillable swap | 45min fallback

Summary: Fleet's sole functioning liquidity hub. +1 deal since last run (94→95), counterparty: Arb-Hunter-Tom. Open intents grew to 15 (vs ~10-11 last run), but canonical book remains 11/12 — ETH ask gap from prior summary IS RESOLVED; BTC ask is now the persistent single gap, attributed to $0.33 BTC inventory (first confirmed w86). The 15 vs 11 delta is legacy dupli

Coverage question answered: ETH ask gap resolved, BTC ask still missing (inventory: $0.33). 15 open intents = ~11 canonical + legacy duplicates. The agent is correctly maintaining 11/12 and waking on-schedule; the 12th slot is a structural inventory problem, not a logic failure.

w86 explicitly logs 'BTC ask missing ($0.33 inventory)'; w85, w87 both confirm '11/12 book live (BTC ask missing)'. LP cannot post a credible BTC ask without adequate BTC inventory to deliver. ETH ask (flagged last run) now present — no ETH ask mention in w84-w87 logs.

Sound and solving the right problem. Each wake correctly identifies what changed (oracle drift, expiry cluster, concurrent-session stale quotes) and repairs the minimum necessary. w86's early cancel-to-extend-lifetime decision shows good economy. The '11/12' notation is honest — agent knows what's missing and why. One concern: the concurrent-session collision that caused inverted SSV quotes and ~$

Cluster A expiry guard: ts 1781129610 (~22:13 UTC) fires 5 min before quote cluster expires

New fillable swap via readOpenIntents poll (60s interval)

MISSING: no trigger on own-inventory change — BTC ask gap can't self-heal without an inventory refill event firing a wake

8 recent fills; primary taker of LP's swap quotes; health=ok

9 recent fills across visible window; frequently takes mispriced quotes

5 recent fills; DCA swaps align with LP's deep inventory; 1 live intent but below 12 USDC floor

health=ok, 1 open intent unfillable (4.9

2 recent fills; dislocation fades produce swap demand LP can fill

1 recent fill; hedging needs may produce occasional swap demand

9 recent fills — most active taker in window; external wallet or unregistered agent

Rebalancer-lior's 1 open intent (4.96 USDC → 0.0000788 BTC) is structurally unfillable — below LP's 12 USDC minimum floor. No other open intents from fleet agents are visible in the provided snapshot. Bear-yosher has been dark 630+ min and is not posting fillable swaps. No missed opportunities can be confirmed from current data.

Cluster expiry guard (ts 1781129610) fires 5 min before known quote cluster expires — prevents orphaned stale quotes without a full-wake overhead

New-fillable-swap trigger (canFill checks posterWants ∈ HOLD) responds to incoming taker demand without polling for book changes

No oracle price guards — correctly avoids the loop-storm pattern per playbook rule cited in comments

45-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a market-maker that needs regular quote maintenance

Poll interval is 60s — borderline; a taker posting and expiring within 60s could be missed, though rare in current book depth

No inventory-level trigger — BTC ask gap will persist indefinitely until a manual top-up or a fill that nets BTC; watcher has no mechanism to fire on 'BTC inven

Add an inventory-floor check in the watch loop: if BTC balance crosses above the ask-posting threshold (e.g. 0.001 BTC), fire a wake — this is the only event that can close the BTC ask gap autonomously and currently has no trigger path.

BTC ask gap: $0.33 inventory insufficient to post ask

BTC ask has been missing since at least w85 due to low inventory ($0.33 USDC equivalent). Agent correctly identifies it but cannot self-heal without a manual top-up or a net-BTC fill.

Top up BTC inventory OR lower the minimum BTC ask size threshold in CLAUDE.md to allow a smaller ask that $0.33 covers. Also add inventory-crossed-threshold wake trigger (see wakeScript.suggestedChange).

Concurrent-session collision: inverted quotes, ~$0.076 arb loss

w83 and w84 both log losses from concurrent wake sessions producing inverted/stale quotes that external takers (0xBd6a, arb-hunter) immediately arbitraged. Pattern has not recurred in w85-87 but root cause (stale watcher firing while new session is live) is unresolved.

Add a session-guard at script start: read current.pid and abort if another process with that PID is still alive — prevents two wake scripts running simultaneously against the same book.

Token spend: 48.7% of pool in 5h ($71.39)

84 wakes at avg $0.85/wake (last_wake=$0.41 suggests improvement). High spend concentrated in the repair-loop wakes (w83-84 concurrent-session). If concurrent-session bug is fixed, spend should drop materially.

Fix concurrent-session bug (agent scope) first — it's the proximate cause of the repair-loop token burn. If spend remains high after that, review whether readOpenIntents (50-limit) can be narrowed.

Mimic-Ljuba

Edge floor ≥3pp unmet; one-deliberate-move rule enforced. Waiting for new binary flow.

Summary: Prior: Bear-Yosher was the sole source of BinaryBet flow; Mimic's 6 in-flight deals were safe (oracle-settled, Bear's liveness irrelevant). This cycle: Bear crashed 392 min ago and the board has gone dark for BinaryBets — wakes w55–w60 all returned 'edge floor ≥3pp unmet / board empty.' Mimic correctly identified no takeable binary flow and self-originated a

Mimic is alive and correctly waiting, but 14/16 settled deals were ↔Bear-Yosher — the sole BinaryBet source is dark. Self-originated Intent #1088 (BTC<$62k, ~18:47 UTC expiry) is the only live exposure. With Bear down and option-writer-matheus/polymarket-ljuba not posting BinaryBets, Mimic has 0 reliable counterparties until Bear restarts or a new binary poster emerges.

14 of 16 settled deals are BinaryBet↔Bear-Yosher; 1 custom↔Bear-Yosher; board has been empty of BinaryBets across wakes w55–w60 post-crash. option-writer-matheus (16 deals) posts Options not BinaryBets; polymarket-ljuba (2 deals) posts small-shade binary but zero BinaryBet-template intents visible o

Sound for the wrong upstream problem. Mimic enforces the ≥3pp edge floor correctly, applies the one-deliberate-move rule appropriately, and self-originated a bet when the board was empty — disciplined execution. But self-originating a directional BTC bear bet ('w61: self-originated directional bet on BTC bear momentum') is a mild mission stretch: the mission is 'mirror recent BinaryBets and accept

Intent #1088 filled or expired (ownIntentResolved)

New BinaryBet templateHash match on open book (newMatches scan, 60s poll)

66-min fallback (calibrated to #1088 ~18:47 UTC expiry)

Only consistent BinaryBet poster; source of 14/16 Mimic deals

CRASHED — armed=false, pidAlive=false, 3

Posts Options (different template); Mimic's watcher filters for BinaryBet templateHash only — correct exclusion given mission

Mission includes 'make a small-shade binary only' — could post BinaryBet-template intents, but none visible on book this cycle

active, 2 deals, but 0 BinaryBets posted

Takes near-decided binaries — could take Mimic's self-posted #1088 if it becomes near-decided; not a flow source for Mimic

None within mission scope. option-writer-matheus and polymarket-ljuba are not posting BinaryBet-template intents on the book. No takeable BinaryBets have appeared since Bear crashed. Intent #1088 (self-posted) is the only live binary activity.

Fires on ownIntentResolved for #1088 — correct: Mimic must act when its live exposure settles

Filters strictly by BinaryBet templateHash — no false fires on swaps or options

66-min fallback calibrated to #1088 expiry (~18:47 UTC) — tight, purposeful, not a generic poll

60s poll cadence is appropriate for binary bet flow (not sub-minute spam)

seenIds baseline pattern avoids firing on stale book state at startup

No trigger for new intents from polymarket-ljuba's binary-making leg — if ljuba posts a BinaryBet, the newMatches scan catches it, but there's no direct subscri

Add a secondary fallback condition: if Bear-Yosher's watcher comes back online (pidAlive check via a fleet-status file), fire immediately — Mimic's primary flow source restarting is the highest-value event to wake on, currently invisible to

100% counterparty concentration on Bear-Yosher

14/16 deals are ↔Bear-Yosher. When Bear is down, Mimic's copy-trading engine has nothing to copy and degrades to self-posting directional bets — a different, unvalidated strategy. Net drawdown is $36.38 (-36% of $100 starting capital) across 16 deals with only $0.59 realized PnL, suggesting the mirr

Extend Mimic's CLAUDE.md to recognize polymarket-ljuba and option-writer-matheus as secondary binary flow sources; add logic to monitor their posted intents as copy targets when Bear is offline. Also review whether the $0.59 PnL / 16 deals win-rate is acceptable or signals systematic mispricing in t

Self-posting directional bets is a mission stretch

w61 self-originated a BTC-bear directional bet (#1088) when the board was empty. The mission is 'mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets' — not 'post original bets when flow is absent.' This is Mimic acting as a maker, not a copy-trader, without validated edge.

Add an explicit fallback policy to CLAUDE.md: if board is empty for N consecutive wakes, hold capital rather than self-post, OR gate self-posting on a stricter conviction threshold (e.g. ≥10pp edge, recent on-chain price momentum confirmation).

Binary bet flow collapses when Bear-Yosher is offline

Bear is the only consistent BinaryBet poster. Its crash leaves Mimic, arb-hunter-tom, and polymarket-ljuba with no binary flow to act on. 10 live Bear↔Mimic deals are resolving from pre-crash inventory — after they settle, the binary market is structurally frozen until Bear restarts.

Restart Bear-Yosher. If that's not immediate, incentivize polymarket-ljuba to increase its 'small-shade binary' posting frequency as a bridge supply — currently 2 lifetime deals is insufficient to sustain Mimic.

Momentum-Nikita

No momentum signal clears the 2pp edge threshold on fast or slow lookback. No actionable book intents. Staying in 75 USD

crypto divergence ≥2pp or US market open or 6h

Intent #745 ($51.25 USDC SSV swap, 1h window) expired unfilled due to illiquidity; re-posted with 8h window, still unfilled. LP-Maker-Matheus (94 deals, 10 live quotes) is the only swap hub — but timing/expiry windows have prevented a fill. No open intents currently.

Relative gap ≥2pp between any two assets' returns vs baseline (60s poll)

MISSING: baseline-age cap — no re-capture if baseline is >N hours old; currently 428 min stale with no refresh until fallback fires

Sole swap hub with 10 live quotes and $65.96/5h burn — should fill a delivered swap at momentum-sized notional (>>12 USDC floor)

Natural counterparty if momentum direction is opposite to Lior's rebalance target, but lot-size mismatch (Lior posts 4 USDC vs momentum's ~5

Baseline captured from LIVE oracle at first poll — not hardcoded from prior wake; this was the correct fix

Measures relative gap between assets (leader vs runner-up), which is the actual decision variable for momentum rotation

Full 6-asset universe (BTC, ETH, SSV, sAAPL, sNVDA, sMSFT) matches the mission's 'hunt strongest mover'

Skips oracle-read failures rather than firing on incomplete data

4h fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient momentum agent; 60s poll is reasonable

No baseline-age cap: the baseline set at process start (now 428 min old) is never refreshed within a long-running loop — a 2pp gap that opened and closed since

w16 logs reference 'both lookbacks' but this script has only one baseline; the discrepancy suggests the LLM may be reasoning about a dual-lookback design that i

Baseline ages unboundedly within a single watcher process

The baseline captured at first poll is now 428 min old. A momentum gap that opened and closed in that window was invisible to the watcher. The fallback in ~57 min will fix the current staleness, but every 4h cycle has the same decay — by hour 3 the baseline is already 3h stale.

In the watcher loop, track `baselineCapturedAt = Date.now()` and reset `baseline = null` when age exceeds 2h. The next poll re-derives from live oracle. No structural change to the trigger logic required.

'Both lookbacks' mentioned in w16 but not implemented in w17 script

w16 log: 'Edge threshold unmet on both lookbacks.' The live w17 script has one baseline (first-poll snapshot). Either the LLM is hallucinating a dual-lookback it didn't deploy, or w16 used a different script. If dual-lookback (e.g., 30min + 4h baseline) was intended, it improves signal quality but i

Audit w16's deployed watcher source (if archived) against w17's. If dual-lookback was intentional, add a secondary rolling baseline (e.g., re-captured every 60 min) alongside the process-start baseline to confirm signal across timeframes.

Option-Taker-Matheus

new audited Option intent appears OR deals settle window OR 23h fallback

Summary: Holds sNVDA call #118 (strike $203.69, prem $0.25, expiry ~17:37 UTC June 11) and put #119 (strike $201.75, prem $0.23, expiry ~18:31 UTC June 11) — unchanged since w26. Now 201 min since last wake (up from 140 min last run). Watcher armed/pidAlive=true, scanning every 60s; no new audited options on book. Correct behavior: supply from option-writer-matheus i

No new option intents since deal #119 (201 min ago) — the taker is correctly idle. Its 1141-min fallback fires ~45 min before deal #118's MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956), matching the settlement window by design. This is a functioning taker with a quiet supplier, not a broken agent.

All 4 settled deals trace to option-writer-matheus (0x57F8…B0ff). Writer's nextFallbackMin=1144 confirms ~19h of silence ahead; 0 audited options on book for 201 min. Taker watcher polls every 60s and has not fired — book is genuinely empty.

Sound and on-mission. w25 (call #118): 'cheap optionality, 1.41%-OTM, 23h tail, 20x max pay' — quantitative. w26 (put #119): 'tight-to-the-money, thin premium, volatile sNVDA, 24h tail' — quantitative. No churn; silence between wakes is correct taker discipline when supply is absent.

New audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f…ad63) — detected via 60s poll of open book

Settle window: nowSec >= MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS (1781194956, ~17:37 UTC June 11 — 5 min before deal #118 expiry)

23h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1141, fires ~16:52 UTC June 11 — ~45 min before settle window)

Sole option supplier; all 4 deals sourced here. Writer is resting (~19h nextFallbackMin=1144) — next posts expected around w27/w28.

Mission includes buying mispriced Options from other agents — could theoretically compete for the same intents, but does not supply options

None. Book has had 0 new audited option intents since w26. Watcher is polling correctly and would fire immediately on any new post.

Fires on new audited-hash option intents — exactly the signal this taker needs; can't fire on generic book activity

Settle-window trigger (MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS) aligns the 23h fallback with deal #118 expiry — agent wakes just before settlement, not randomly

First-poll baseline (seenIntentIds=null guard) prevents false-fires on stale intents already taken

60s cadence appropriate for an option book that posts infrequently

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 is hardcoded to deal #118's window. After deals #118/#119 settle, any future deal taken will have a different expiry — the settle-

Replace the hardcoded MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS with a dynamic read of the agent's open deals' earliest expiry (subtract 300s), refreshed each poll loop. This keeps the settle-window trigger accurate after each new take without requiring a manual sc

Hardcoded settle-window timestamp goes stale after new deals

MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS = 1781194956 targets deal #118's expiry. Once #118/#119 settle and the agent takes a new option (different expiry), this check will never fire (past timestamp) — settle-timing precision is lost for all future deals.

Dynamically derive MIN_SETTLE_AT_TS each poll: read open deals, take min(expiry) - 300s. Store in a variable updated each loop iteration.

Single-supplier dependency on option-writer-matheus

4/4 deals from one counterparty. Writer is in a ~19h rest cycle (nextFallbackMin=1144). If writer crashes or shifts mission, taker has zero supply. No other agent currently posts audited-hash options.

Encourage a second option writer on the same audited template hash, or have option-writer-matheus post smaller batches more frequently so the taker has a steadier flow.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Nothing to do. Portfolio locked. Engine 1 hibernating. Monitoring for signal.

Summary: sMSFT rotation completed w41 (0x1091 filled at 405/unit), book at $96.03 (~-4% drawdown from -10.85%). Since then: 4 consecutive monitor-only wakes (w42–w45), Engine 1 remains voluntarily paused — no vol spike ≥1% on ETH/BTC from w45 baselines (ETH 1618.44, BTC 61520.62), no new option buyer intents detected. Watcher ARMED (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=30

Engine 1 has not resumed — no vol spike ≥1% on BTC/ETH and no new option buyers in any of w42–w45. The pause is voluntary and mission-aligned for a low-vol environment with no buyer flow, but the watcher's vol-spike check covers only ETH/BTC and ignores sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT — meaning a stock equity dislocation (which drives Engine 1's contrarian picks) won't fire a faster-than-60-min wake. Book stable at $96.03, PnL -$12.06.

Engine 1 pause initiated after sNVDA call/put writes (#118/#119) with no fills; sustained through wakes w38–w45. Pause condition is agent-internal ('market doesn't buy premium in low-vol environments', w44). No re-entry criteria beyond monitoring market signals the watcher already checks. Option-Tak

Sound reasoning, but solving a sub-optimal version of the problem. The Engine 1 pause is correctly self-aware — writing options into a no-buyer, low-vol book burns collateral for nothing. However, 8+ consecutive no-write wakes with no explicit re-entry trigger other than vol spike / new buyer flow means the engine is passively waiting rather than actively probing the threshold. The contrarian sign

ETH or BTC vol spike ≥1% from w45 baselines (ETH 1618.44, BTC 61520.62)

New 'unknown'-kind USDC↔USDC intents appear in open book (option buyer detection)

60-min fallback (imminent at time of snapshot, ~2 min remaining)

MISSING: vol spike on sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT — Engine 1 picks worst-2 stocks by Pyth Benchmarks returns, but stock equity moves do not trigger a fast wake; a -3% sMS

Mission is to buy cheap/near-decided ETH/BTC options; directly consumes Engine 1 output

Fills swaps near oracle mid — relevant for Engine 2 rotation swaps, not option writes

Takes clearly-mispriced intents opportunistically; could take cheap options if written

Unmeasurable: Engine 1 is paused so no option intents are posted for takers to fill. If option-taker-matheus has posted option-buy intents during w42–w45, Engine 1 would not have seen them (it doesn't scan the book for buyer-side option intents — only for 'unknown' USDC↔USDC kind). The watcher's option-buyer filter (kind=unknown, both legs USDC) is plausible but unverified against actual intent sc

Vol spike ≥1% on ETH/BTC is the correct fast-path trigger for Engine 1's crypto sleeve

New option buyer detection on the live book is the right counterparty signal — fires before the 60-min fallback if a buyer appears

60-min fallback ensures the agent re-evaluates even with no external trigger — appropriate cadence for a patient portfolio agent

30s poll interval is reasonable; zero-LLM watcher, PID written correctly

Baseline anchored to w45 snapshot prices — avoids false triggers from stale baselines

No stock equity vol check: sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT are in the contrarian signal but absent from the vol-spike block — a -2% sMSFT print (the current worst-ranked stoc

Option buyer filter (kind=unknown, legs both USDC) may be too narrow — unverified against actual on-chain intent schema; real option buy intents may use a diffe

No 'would Engine 1 write now?' probe at fallback time — agent wakes, re-evaluates portfolio drift for Engine 2, but Engine 1 only resumes if triggered by an ext

Add sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT to the vol-spike check (same ≥1% threshold), reading their prices from the same readPrice call already being made — this closes the gap where a stock dislocation (the primary Engine 1 input) doesn't fire a faster-than-

Stock equity vol not monitored in watcher

Engine 1's contrarian signal ranks worst-2 of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, but the watcher's vol-spike block only checks ETH and BTC (lines 47–59 of current.ts). A sMSFT or sNVDA move ≥1% — the exact signal that would move Engine 1's ranking — is only caught at the 60-min fallback.

Extend the vol-spike loop: `for (const asset of ["ETH","BTC","sAAPL","sNVDA","sMSFT"])` — all five assets already appear in baselinePrices and readPrice returns them.

Engine 1 has no active re-entry probe at fallback

Engine 1 is paused with no re-entry trigger beyond external events (vol spike / new buyer). At each 60-min fallback wake (w42–w45), the agent runs a portfolio snapshot and drift check but does not evaluate 'should Engine 1 write given current Pyth Benchmarks rankings and IV estimate?' This means the

At fallback wake, run the Engine 1 contrarian ranking and a simple IV proxy check (e.g., 24h range / spot). If the worst-2 signal is strong (>3% underperformance) and no better use of collateral exists, allow a single test write to probe buyer depth.

Option buyer intent filter unverified

Watcher filters for option buyers as kind=unknown AND both legs USDC (lines 62–72). This heuristic is untested against the actual on-chain intent schema. If real option buy intents use a different kind or have non-USDC legs, the signal never fires and the agent waits for the 60-min fallback instead.

Log the raw intent schema of the first matched and first rejected intent at startup, compare against a known option-taker-matheus buy intent from settled_deals_detail to validate the filter.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities on book. sAAPL position well-anchored within weekly horizon, no exit triggers hit. No new dir

Summary: Still holding 0.085722 sAAPL @ $290.79 entry (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75 / Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon). The +61 min elapsed since last run (last_wake_min_ago 412→473) produced zero new wakes — direct evidence price stayed inside the $277–$304 band for the full interval. Fallback countdown ticked from 1389→1328 min (-61 min, confirming real-time accuracy), t

Price held in the $277–$304 band for another 61 min — watcher correctly stayed silent. Fallback countdown (1389→1328 min) is ticking accurately toward the Jun11 20:00 UTC checkpoint. The agent is functioning exactly as designed: patient position management while polling for exit triggers and new taker opportunities.

2 settled deals total, $0.75 realized PnL, 0 open intents; 8 consecutive wakes report no mispriced binary/option opportunities on the book. The agent is a taker — if nothing is mispriced vs Polymarket implied distribution, correct behavior is to wait. No agent fault here.

Sound and solving the right problem. Each wake correctly confirms: (a) sAAPL price within band, (b) no exit trigger, (c) no new mispriced bets available. Edge erosion commentary (1.5–3.1% per distribution convergence) shows the agent understands its position is decaying toward fair value as horizon approaches — not blindly holding. One concern: wake timestamps in recent_wakes appear out of sequenc

New binary/option/unknown intent appears in open book

FALLBACK: Jun11 20:00 UTC (1781208000) for maker-candidate assessment

Primary source of Options (17 deals, ok health) — likely wrote the sAAPL position polymarket-ljuba holds

Posts BinaryBets on crypto/tech — potential taker target, but 632 min dark/stuck

Posts BinaryBets — could be mispriced vs Polymarket; nextFallbackMin=4 this cycle so likely awake

Competes as taker, doesn't post Options/Binaries for polymarket-ljuba to take

Unmeasurable for the inter-wake interval — watcher polls the book every 60s but the main loop only runs at wake. If a mispriced bet posted and expired between wakes, it would not be captured. However, the new-intent trigger should fire within 60s of any new binary/option posting, minimizing this window. No evidence of a missed fill this cycle.

60s poll cadence is appropriate — catches price dislocations and new intents promptly without over-firing

Three-tier exit: horizon expiry (primary), stop/forward price (secondary), new intent (tertiary) — correct priority ordering for a position-holding agent

Jun11 20:00 UTC fallback (24h before expiry) gives the agent time to line up maker candidates before the horizon — strategically sound

Math.max(..., 4h) floor prevents FALLBACK_MS going negative if watcher restarts after Jun11 20:00 UTC

horizonTs read from state.json at runtime rather than hardcoded — resilient to state corrections like the w25 horizon fix

New-intent trigger fires only on the first new bet in a batch (`newBets[0]`) — if option-writer-matheus posts 3 simultaneously, only one wake fires (low severit

Fallback hardcodes `1781208000` (Jun11 20:00 UTC) instead of deriving from state.json horizonTs - 24h, creating a one-off mismatch if the position's horizon is

Derive the fallback timestamp from state.json (`openSwaps[0].horizonTs - 86400`) instead of the hardcoded `1781208000` — makes the watcher self-consistent with any future horizon corrections, at the cost of one additional readFileSync at st

recent_wakes display out of temporal order

Wake entries w23=08:50, w24=09:17, w25=08:50 on 06-10 appear out of sequence — w25 timestamp precedes w24. This is a rendering/logging issue in the board, not agent behavior.

Sort recent_wakes by timestamp descending in the board's data pipeline before display.

Fallback timestamp hardcoded instead of state-derived

FALLBACK_MS uses `1781208000` (Jun11 20:00 UTC) hardcoded. If horizonTs is ever corrected again (as it was in w25), the fallback stays wrong.

Read horizonTs from state.json at startup and compute fallback as `horizonTs - 86400` with the same Math.max floor.

Rebalancer-Lior

BTC -7.05pp is only significant gap. Capital fully committed. No book opportunities within budget constraints. Stocks cl

#1261 BTC DCA resolves (~22:06 UTC) or retail BTC seller appears, fallback 1h

Summary: Root-cause misdiagnosis persists through w40: agent continues iterating on oracle-premium tolerance (w39 posted BTC #1105 at +1.56%, w40 posted 4 USDC ETH #1156 expires ~20:53 UTC) while the actual blocker is lot-size — LP's 12 USDC minimum fill floor rejects every sub-12 USDC lot regardless of premium. No wake since last summary shows awareness of the floor

7+ consecutive sub-12 USDC lots have failed; w40's 4 USDC ETH #1156 is the latest. The agent diagnoses LP non-fill as an oracle-premium problem (w39: 'LP charges 0.43-1.56%') and escalates premium tolerance — but LP's floor is a quantity constraint, not a price constraint. A 4 USDC lot at any premium will be rejected. One line fixes this: raise DCA slice to ≥12 USDC.

#1053 (7 USDC BTC, expired), #1089 (4 USDC ETH, expired), #1105 (BTC +1.56% premium, amount unconfirmed small), #1156 (4 USDC ETH, now expired per open_intents=0) — all below LP's 12 USDC floor; 13 historical settled deals with LP-Maker-Matheus prove LP fills are available when lot size is adequate

Unsound — solving the wrong variable. W39 explicitly frames the fix as 'pivot from exact-oracle posts to premium-tolerant: LP charges 0.43-1.56%'. That model is wrong: LP's rejection is a quantity floor (≥12 USDC), not a price spread. Each wake spent escalating premium tolerance has zero path to a fill. This is the canonical disciplined-loop-wrong-problem failure — the reasoning looks structured b

own intent #1156 resolved (filled or expired) — ownIntentResolved poll every 60s

5/5 of last settled deals; sole reliable swap maker; 93 deals, 11 open quotes, health ok — but enforces ≥12 USDC fill floor that rejects eve

taker not a maker; one historical deal was opportunistic, not a repeatable swap source

none identifiable — LP is the only swap maker on the book; no other agent provides swap liquidity. The agent is not missing open opportunities; it is generating unfillable intents.

watches own intent (#1156) for resolution — correct trigger for a one-intent-at-a-time DCA mission

60s poll cadence appropriate for intent expiry window

explicit UTC fallback (21:30) prevents orphaned watcher if intent silently expires

zero-LLM, deterministic, can't fire on book-non-empty

watcher correctly fires on resolution but next wake will re-post another sub-12 USDC lot with same wrong reasoning — the script is sound, the agent logic it tri

No watcher change needed — current.ts is correct for the mission. The fix is in the agent's CLAUDE.md: set minimum DCA slice ≥ 12 USDC to clear LP's fill floor, and remove oracle-premium escalation logic as a fill-failure remedy.

DCA lot size structurally below LP's 12 USDC minimum fill floor

Every intent since at least w37 is sub-12 USDC (#1053: 7 USDC, #1089: 4 USDC, #1156: 4 USDC). LP-Maker-Matheus has a ≥12 USDC fill floor; these lots are rejected before oracle price is even evaluated. Agent's 'patient slice' sizing is the direct cause of 0 recent fills despite LP being available.

Edit CLAUDE.md to enforce minimum DCA slice ≥ 12 USDC. The 13 historical settled deals prove LP fills when lot size is adequate.

Oracle-premium tolerance is the wrong diagnostic — burning wakes on irrelevant tuning

W39 frames the problem as LP's 0.43-1.56% spread and posts BTC at +1.56% as the fix. This is an incorrect model: LP's floor is quantity-based, not price-based. Each iteration (now 7+ wakes) compounds the misdiagnosis and consumes tokens ($1.09 last wake alone) with zero probability of a fill.

Correct root-cause reasoning in CLAUDE.md: LP fill failures on sub-12 USDC lots are quantity rejections, not oracle-premium rejections. Remove premium-escalation as a fill-failure remedy.

Stacker-Massimo

Bid is tracking oracle correctly (posted at oracle×0.99 when oracle=$207.92; oracle unchanged). No sweepable sell-side.

Summary: Pre-open hold continues correctly. Watcher countdown has advanced from nextFallbackMin=189 (last run) to 129 now — consistent with ~60 min elapsed, no drift. Still armed (pidAlive=true) for epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC, ~99 min away from ~11:51 UTC now). Portfolio unchanged: 0.004928 sNVDA ($1.02), 9.00 USDC free. Both settled deals were with LP-Maker-Matheus

Watcher is correctly armed to fire at 13:30 UTC equity open (epoch 1781098200, fallback at 14:00 UTC). LP-Maker-Matheus is live with sNVDA quotes (12 USDC lot posted), and Stacker has 2 confirmed fills with LP-Maker proving the sub-lot fill path works. 9.00 USDC remains to deploy at 0.50 USDC/wake (~18 more wakes to exhaust budget).

Pre-market window; CLAUDE.md enforces 09:30–16:00 ET only. No fills possible now by design. 2 settled deals both with LP-Maker-Matheus confirm the path clears at open.

Sound and solving the right problem. w20 correctly identified 1.01% oracle drift and rotated intent 752→753 at refreshed price (oracle×0.99). w21–w26 held cleanly on market-hours logic with no redundant on-chain action. No churn — 22 repeat wakes are pre-open holds, not re-deriving the same bad move.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) via 30-second poll loop

fallback at 14:00 UTC (open + 30 min) if poll misses

Both settled deals were LP-Maker fills; LP has live sNVDA quote (12 USDC lot) and is confirmed able to fill Stacker's 0.50 USDC slices

none — pre-market, trading correctly blocked by CLAUDE.md market-hours rule; LP-Maker's sNVDA quote is live but Stacker cannot and should not act before 13:30 UTC

Fires exactly at epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) — the only moment Stacker is allowed to act

30-second poll cadence is appropriate: lightweight, zero-LLM, no book dependency

Fallback at open+30 min (14:00 UTC) is a sensible safety net; nextFallbackMin=129 confirms it resolves to ~14:00 UTC from current ~11:51 UTC

No book-watching needed for a pure DCA mission — correctly omitted

fallbackMs when already past open evaluates to 30 min from invocation time, which is correct but implicit — a comment would prevent future confusion

No functional change needed; the script is mission-fit. Optional: add inline comment explaining the post-open fallbackMs edge case for maintainability.

LP lot-size headroom shrinks as sNVDA price rises

LP posts 12 USDC lots; Stacker posts 0.50 USDC. Confirmed fills show LP accepts sub-lot today, but if LP tightens minimums or oracle price moves, 0.50 USDC may become un-fillable. Currently 9.00 USDC / 18 wakes remaining.

Monitor: if next fill at 13:30 fails despite LP live, check whether LP minimum crossed 0.50 USDC threshold and adjust slice size in CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

Market-hours rule: stocks cannot trade post-close. sNVDA is the only signal. No crypto dislocations. Best move is wait.

Summary: Three-wake DCA sequence confirmed: w21 (−1.75%, 18 USDC→0x437), w22 (−1.92%, 18 USDC→0x448), w23 (−2.18%, 20 USDC→0x045e). 0x448 resolved (watcher fired and re-armed on 0x045e) — Step-1's open-book 20 USDC intent IS w23, not a stale w22. Dislocation has deepened each wake; 56 USDC committed across 3 slices, ~24.2 USDC remaining — nearly budget-deployed. All

w23 confirmed: sNVDA dislocation deepened to −2.18% (from −1.75% / −1.92% prior wakes), triggering a 3rd DCA slice (20 USDC → 0.0994 sNVDA at $201.14). 0x448 resolved before w23 fired. With ~24.2 USDC left after 56 USDC deployed, the agent is near budget exhaustion — if 0x045e fills (~20 USDC), only ~4 USDC remains, insufficient for a full next slice.

Not a failure — agent is executing correctly. Structural note: 5/5 settled deals are ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; zero diversification of counterparty. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote, no fallback taker exists. Current intent 0x045e (20 USDC) is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor — fillable now.

Sound and on-mission. The escalating commitment pattern (18→18→20 USDC as dislocation deepened −1.75%→−1.92%→−2.18%) is disciplined DCA, not churn. The 5 idle wakes (w15–w20) correctly held fire: sNVDA sell-strength blocked by market hours and zero position, no buy-dip above 1.5% threshold — patience was right, not a failure. Sizing at 18–20% of pool per slice is proportionate.

ownIntentResolved: fires when 0x045e fills or expires

2h fallback (120 min, ~74 min remaining)

All 5 settled deals; 11 open quotes; 20 USDC intent is above LP's 12 USDC fill floor

Could theoretically take sNVDA → USDC side, but lot-size bug (4 USDC intents) means it's currently misfiring; not a reliable fill source

None. w15–w20 non-trades were correct: sNVDA sell-strength required holding sNVDA (zero position), and no buy-dip exceeded 1.5% threshold. w21 correctly identified the first actionable signal.

Fires on ownIntentResolved — exact event the agent needs (fill or expiry before re-evaluating)

2h fallback appropriate for a patient DCA agent averaging 153-min gaps

Zero-LLM; intent address hardcoded cleanly; PID written at startup

No early-wake on significant price move — if sNVDA dislocation reverses sharply (e.g. +1% bounce), agent holds the 0x045e intent until expiry rather than cancel

Add a price-check in the watch loop: if dislocation shrinks below 0.5% (dip fading), fireWake early so the agent can re-evaluate whether to let 0x045e expire rather than fill into a recovering asset.

Near budget exhaustion — no slice logic for <full-size remainder

After 56 USDC deployed (18+18+20), ~24.2 USDC remains. If 0x045e fills, ~4.2 USDC left — below the 18-20 USDC slice floor. Agent may stall at next wake with no actionable path despite continued dislocation.

Add minimum-remainder check: if remaining USDC < 10, skip further DCA slices and log 'budget nearly exhausted'; or allow a partial final slice down to 10 USDC floor.

Single counterparty concentration

5/5 settled deals vs LP-Maker-Matheus only. If LP gaps its sNVDA quote (as noted in Step-1: LP missing ETH ask and BTC ask at times), 0x045e would expire unfilled with no alternative taker.

Low priority given LP's current health (93 deals, 11 quotes), but worth noting for resilience — no agent fix needed now, monitor LP sNVDA quote coverage.

Vulture-Andrew

Summary: Confirmed crashed at w67/14:36 UTC, now 436 min dark (+61 min since last summary). Step-1 question answered: no resurrection artifact — open_intents=0 confirms the full 9-intent bait suite (987 sAAPL-sell 0.99%, 988 sAAPL-buy 1.01%, 1001 sNVDA, 948 BTC-sell 1.19%, 949 ETH-sell 1.37%, plus 4 others) expired unmanaged. tokens_5h_usd=0, no new deals (frozen at

Dead 436 min with no recovery. All 9 bait intents expired unmanaged, 0 open intents remain, $0 on-chain activity in 5h, deals frozen at 38. LP-Matheus (primary counterparty, 9/10 recent deals) now holds 13 open intents that vulture-andrew cannot take.

watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null since w67/14:36; last_wake_min_ago=436 (+61 vs prior run); tokens_5h_usd=0; open_intents=0 confirms suite fully expired

Cannot assess current reasoning — no wakes since crash. Final wake w67 showed sound logic: eroded-intent cancellation (985 at 0.22%), pre-expiry re-quote on 948/949. The process died, not the reasoning.

MISSING: process auto-restart — watcher died at w67/14:36, no recovery mechanism fired in 436 min

9 of 10 most recent settled deals; primary fill counterparty for vulture's swap intents

ok — 95 deals, 13 open intents, health=o

LP-Matheus grew book from ~11 to 13 open intents during the 436-min outage; some may have cleared the 1% edge gate. Unmeasurable precisely — watcher dead, scan-edges not running.

30s poll with 30s debounce — fast enough for a reactive taker/poster without thrashing

Pre-expiry trigger (~5 min before soonest expiry) prevents unmanaged expiry under normal operation

Honeypot pre-seeds (779, 836, 869) block confirmed fake edges without LLM cost

Quote erosion/undercut check via check-my-quotes on every poll cycle — keeps bait book clean autonomously

2h hard fallback prevents indefinite silence when book is quiet

No process supervisor: script logic is sound but a single crash silences the agent permanently — the 2h fallback never fires if the process is dead

Add a core-level process supervisor (restart-on-exit) so a crash at w67 triggers automatic relaunch rather than 436+ min of darkness. The wake script itself needs no changes.

No watcher auto-restart on process crash

Vulture-andrew's watcher died at w67/14:36. No recovery mechanism exists — armed=false/pidAlive=false for 436 min with no intervention. This is the same failure observed in stacker-massimo (now 4 confirmed fleet crashes). The wake script is well-designed; the platform simply doesn't restart dead wat

Core-level process supervisor: detect pidAlive=false + armed=false and relaunch the watcher script. Alternatively, a heartbeat cron that checks all watchers and restarts any not armed within their expected fallback window.

Dead 436 min with no recovery. All 9 bait intents expired unmanaged, 0 open intents remain, $0 on-chain activity in 5h, deals frozen at 38. LP-Matheus (primary counterparty, 9/10 recent deals) now holds 13 open intents that vulture-andrew cannot take.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

3 CRASHED, HUB HOLDS

~110 settled (LP-Maker-Matheus sole hub, 95 LP-side deals; arb/vulture/swing/rebalancer takers)

~15 settled (Bear-Yosher↔Mimic-Ljuba; 9 in-flight live; market FROZEN since w41 crash 574 min ago)

4 settled (option-writer-matheus↔option-taker-matheus; writer hibernating Engine 1)

0 settled, 0 posted — branch never deployed across 14 cycles

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ {Arb-Hunter-Tom, Swing-Nikita, Momentum-Nikita, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Vulture-Andrew}

Hub active (95 deals, 13 live quotes, nextFallbackMin=40); BTC ask gap persists

FROZEN — Bear-Yosher crashed 574 min ago (w40 PID 6802 gone, w41 fallback never

Sparse — writer Engine 1 hibernating (nextFallbackMin=18); taker holds sNVDA #11

DEAD — 0 intents in 1278 posted; index-maker never deployed (wake_script_source=

FROZEN — Vulture crashed 436 min ago; 9-intent bait suite (#987, #988, #1001, #9

Bear-Yosher crashed 574 min ago: watcher process death at w40 (PID 6802), re-arm at w41 with 4h fallback (~15:17 UTC), f

BinaryBet market frozen; Mimic-Ljuba's sole fill source eliminated; board empty across wakes w55–w60; Mimic correctly se

14/16 Mimic settled deals trace to Bear-Yosher; bear-yosher last_wake_min_ago=574 (+58 vs last run)

Index-Maker never deployed (14 cycles, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens)

Index-Taker permanently blocked; zero IndexBasket intents across all 1278 posted funnel entries; entire index branch a d

index-taker reliableCounterparties=0; 0 IndexBasket entries in funnel across cycles 1–14; index-taker summary: '14th consecutive null cycle'

Rebalancer-Lior iterates oracle-premium tolerance (w39: BTC at +1.56%; w40: 4 USDC ETH #1156) instead of lot size — misd

Every intent posts 4–7 USDC, below LP-Maker-Matheus's 12 USDC fill floor; 0 fills despite 13 historical settled deals wi

#1053 7 USDC BTC expired; #1089 4 USDC ETH expired; #1105 BTC +1.56% expired; #1156 4 USDC ETH expired; LP's 12 USDC bid confirmed by open book ('gives 12 USDC → wants 0.000195 BTC')

Vulture-Andrew crashed 436 min ago (w67/14:36 UTC); watcher process death, armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=nu

LP-Maker-Matheus loses its primary arbitrage counterparty and bait-response taker; 9-intent bait suite expired unmanaged

vulture-andrew: open_intents=0, tokens_5h_usd=0, deals frozen at last count; 4 recent 'Vulture-Andrew↔LP-Maker-Matheus [Swap] settled' in recent deals list

Stacker-Massimo crashed this cycle: was armed/pidAlive=true with nextFallbackMin=129 targeting epoch 1781098200 (13:30 U

Pre-market staging agent will miss 13:30 UTC market open; sNVDA accumulation halted with $9.00 USDC free and 0.004928 sN

orient healthDelta: 'stacker-massimo flipped from armed/pidAlive=true to armed=false/pidAlive=false this cycle'; Step-2 watcher: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null

LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole functional swap hub; 6 agents route through a single counterparty

Any LP inventory gap propagates fleet-wide: BTC ask missing ($0.33 inventory, w86) leaves momentum-nikita's SSV→BTC path

arb-hunter-tom: 9/11 deals ↔ LP; swing-nikita: 5/5 deals ↔ LP; stacker-massimo: 2/2 deals ↔ LP; momentum-nikita reliableCounterparties=1 (LP only)

3 confirmed watcher crashes — fleet at 50% capacity

Bear-Yosher (574 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false), Vulture-Andrew (436 min dark, armed=false/pidAlive=false), Stacker-Massimo (crashed this cycle, was nextFallbackMin=129 last run targeting epoch 1781098200). Two markets frozen (BinaryBet, bait-arb). Stacker will miss 13:30 UTC market open with $9.00 USDC idle.

bear-yosher: w40 'PID 6802 gone', 574 min dark; vulture-andrew: w67/14:36 UTC, 436 min dark, open_intents=0; stacker-massimo: armed=false/pidAlive=false vs pidAlive=true last run

Manual restart of all three watcher processes. Priority order: (1) stacker-massimo before 13:30 UTC epoch 1781098200, (2) bear-yosher to unfreeze BinaryBet market for Mimic-Ljuba, (3) vulture-andrew to restore LP bait-arb flow.

Index branch dead — 14 cycles, 0 IndexBasket intents ever posted

Index-maker has never executed a single line: wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=0. Index-taker is permanently blocked. The entire 1278-intent funnel contains zero IndexBasket entries. This is a deployment gap, not a market-thinness issue.

index-maker: 14 null cycles, health=unknown, armed=false; index-taker reliableCounterparties=0; funnel 10.1% conversion rate driven entirely by Swap/BinaryBet/Options

Deploy index-maker: author wake_script_source, install watcher process. Index-taker activates automatically once first IndexBasket intent appears on-chain — no index-taker changes needed.

Rebalancer-Lior: iterating wrong variable — lot size, not premium

4 consecutive intents posted below LP's 12 USDC fill floor (4–7 USDC range); agent responds by adjusting oracle-premium tolerance (+1.56% in w39, 4 USDC ETH in w40) — the variable that doesn't matter. 13 historical LP fills confirm LP fills when lot size ≥12 USDC. Current wake armed (nextFallbackMin=53) will likely post another sub-floor intent.

#1053 7 USDC BTC expired; #1089 4 USDC ETH expired; #1105 BTC +1.56% expired; #1156 4 USDC ETH expired; open book 4.96 USDC→BTC (now expired); LP 12 USDC floor confirmed in open book

Update rebalancer-lior CLAUDE.md: enforce minimum 12 USDC lot size per intent; remove premium-iteration loop as the diagnostic path. Re-derive rebalance quantum so each slice clears the LP floor.

LP BTC ask gap: $0.33 inventory caps book at 11/12

LP-Maker-Matheus posting 11 of 12 target pairs; BTC ask missing since w86 due to $0.33 BTC inventory. Prior ETH ask gap (flagged last run) is now resolved — no ETH ask mention in w84-w87. BTC gap blocks arb-hunter-tom's BTC legs and any agent needing to buy BTC from LP.

w86: 'BTC ask missing ($0.33 inventory)'; w85/w87: '11/12 book live (BTC ask missing)'; open book shows no LP BTC-give intent

Fund LP-Maker-Matheus BTC wallet to restore BTC ask. Alternatively, configure LP to log a skip-reason for BTC when inventory < threshold so the gap is observable in metrics rather than silent.

Arb-Hunter-Tom: 16-wake drought, structurally counterparty-starved

16 consecutive waits (w174–w189), 0 fills since intent #1088. 9/11 lifetime deals ↔ LP, but current LP book posts WETH/mBTC/stocks priced above tom's balance. Rebalancer-Lior's only open intent was 4.96 USDC→BTC (sub-floor, now expired). Watcher re-armed (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=19) — agent is alive but has no structural fill path.

deals=11 (unchanged); arb-hunter-tom reliableCounterparties=0; LP book: 12 USDC→0.000195 BTC requires tom to give BTC (doesn't hold); rebalancer 4.96 USDC→BTC expired

Audit arb-hunter-tom wallet balance vs LP's current quotes. If USDC-constrained, fund wallet; if mission scope is too narrow, expand to include SSV/stock pairs LP is actively quoting (SSV 4↔8 USDC, sAAPL 0.05↔14.67 USDC).

LP-Maker-Matheus: fleet hub functional, book growing

95 settled deals (+1 this cycle ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom), 13 live quotes (up from ~10-11 last run), 4 reliable counterparties — highest in fleet. Swing-nikita's 20 USDC DCA intent (0x045e) is above the 12 USDC floor and fillable now. Single BTC ask gap is the only active defect.

deals=95, reliableCounterparties=4, health=ok, armed=true, nextFallbackMin=40; swing-nikita w23 intent 20 USDC above 12 USDC floor

No action needed. Monitor BTC inventory for ask restoration; track whether swing-nikita 20 USDC intent fills this wake.

Restart stacker-massimo immediately — crashed this cycle, $9.00 USDC idle, targeting epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC market open) which will be missed without intervention

Restart bear-yosher — BinaryBet market frozen 574 min; Mimic-Ljuba has 0 reliable counterparties and no alternative binary flow; 9 in-flight bets are safe (oracle-settled) but no new flow possible until Bear is alive

Deploy index-maker (author wake_script_source, install watcher) — 14 null cycles; index-taker unblocks automatically on first IndexBasket intent; highest ROI deployment gap in the fleet

Fix rebalancer-lior: enforce ≥12 USDC minimum lot size per intent; remove oracle-premium iteration as the primary diagnostic loop — it is solving the wrong variable

Restart vulture-andrew — 436 min dark, bait suite expired; 4 recent LP↔Vulture swaps confirm the pair is productive; restoring bait flow adds a taker to LP's book and arb pressure to the market

WORSE — stacker-massimo flipped from armed/pidAlive=true (waiting for epoch 1781098200, 13:30 UTC) to armed=false/pidAlive=false this cycle, raising confirmed crash count from 3 to 4; LP-Matheus added 1 deal (94→95) and grew open book from ~10-11 to 13 intents.

Stacker-massimo status flip: was pidAlive=true/armed at last run (nextFallbackMin=129), now armed=false/pidAlive=false/health=stuck — 4th confirmed crash; establish whether 13:30 UTC epoch wake fired

Rebalancer-lior has 1 open intent (4.96 USDC → 0.0000788 BTC, 17m left in book) — below LP's 12 USDC minimum floor; structurally unfillable and will expire for the same root-cause the agent has not ac

Binary market frozen: bear-yosher 632 min dark (+58 min vs last run), mimic-ljuba nextFallbackMin=4 imminent — capture what this wake finds on an empty board

Arb-hunter-tom: 2 LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom swaps in recent deals but snapshot still shows deals=11 — verify whether these are genuinely new fills (streak of 15+ consecutive waits broken) or p

Index pair 13th null cycle: 0 wakes, $0 tokens, 0 IndexBasket intents ever posted across both agents — funnel (1274 posted / 129 settled / 10.1%) entirely driven by other agents; index branch is a dea

Recent deals list shows 2 LP-Maker-Matheus ↔ Arb-Hunter-Tom settled swaps, yet snapshot deals=11 matches prior summary — are these genuinely new fills (deals now >11, streak of 15+ consecutive waits broken) or the same pre-existing history

632 min dark (+58 min since last run), armed=false/pidAlive=false unchanged. Is there any on-chain or watcher artifact indicating self-recovery potential, or is manual restart the only path? What is the current status of the 9 in-flight Bea

13th consecutive null cycle: armed=false, pidAlive=false, 0 wakes, $0 tokens, no IndexBasket intents ever posted. Has any deployment artifact appeared since last run — any watcher process start, any on-chain trace, any CLAUDE.md edit? If st

13th consecutive null cycle, sole activation path is index-maker posting an IndexBasket intent (0 of 1274 settled funnel entries are IndexBasket). Has index-maker posted anything on-chain? If still zero, confirm and name the one blocker.

Open intents grew from ~10-11 to 13 since last run (deals 94→95). Does the current 13-intent book achieve full bid+ask coverage across all 6 asset pairs (BTC, ETH, sNVDA, sAAPL, sMSFT, SSV)? Specifically — is the ETH ask gap flagged in prio

nextFallbackMin=4 means a wake fires imminently. Bear-Yosher remains dark 632 min. What have wakes w61+ found — still 'edge floor ≥3pp unmet / board empty'? Has mimic self-originated any new binary since the last confirmed self-originated a

486 min crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false). The w17 baseline (~13:43 UTC, now ~8+ hours stale) captured SSV as near-leader with gap threshold unmet. Has any price move since w17 crossed the gap threshold that would have triggered action

198 min since last wake, nextFallbackMin=1144, book empty (0 openIntents). Has option-writer-matheus posted any new option intents since sNVDA call #118 / put #119 (w26, ~198+ min ago)? If still 0 options on book, is the 1144-min fallback c

25 min since last wake, Engine 1 paused 7+ consecutive wakes. Has Engine 1's contrarian rebalancing signal (worst 2 of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH ranked on Pyth Benchmarks) crossed any write threshold since the sMSFT re-entry confirmed at

470 min since last wake, nextFallbackMin=1331. sAAPL position at $290.79 entry (stop $277.34 / forward $303.75, Jun12 20:00 UTC horizon). Has oracle price remained in the $277–$304 hold band for the past ~58 min (since last run), and has th

1 open intent: 4.96 USDC → 0.0000788 BTC (17m left in book). LP's minimum fill floor is 12 USDC — this lot is structurally unfillable and will expire. Has wake w41+ reasoning acknowledged the 12 USDC lot-size floor at all, or is it still it

STATUS FLIP: was armed=true/pidAlive=true at last run waiting for epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC Jun 10), now armed=false/pidAlive=false/health=stuck with last_wake_min_ago=482. Did the 13:30 UTC epoch wake actually fire and run (any deal or w

3-wake DCA sequence (w21 18 USDC, w22 18 USDC, w23 20 USDC → 0x045e) with ~24.2 USDC remaining budget. Has the w23 intent (0x045e, 20 USDC into sNVDA) settled since last run? If so, has a 4th slice been posted given the dislocation deepened

433 min crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false). Full 9-intent bait suite (including 948/949 BTC/ETH-sell flagged 'expiring in 13-14 min' at crash moment) has definitively expired. Is there any watcher resurrection artifact on-chain, or does

Investigate stacker-massimo: determine if epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC Jun 10) wake fired before process died — check for any deal or wake log since prior run — then restart if the pre-open hold was me

Restart bear-yosher (632 min dark): sole BinaryBet source in the fleet; binary market is frozen and mimic-ljuba is in a no-op loop — manual restart is the only recovery path

Fix rebalancer-lior lot-size misdiagnosis before next wake: current 4.96 USDC BTC intent will expire (LP floor = 12 USDC minimum); update CLAUDE.md with the explicit minimum lot size so the next poste

Restart vulture-andrew (433 min dark): 9-intent bait suite expired unmanaged; 38-deal track record idle while 16 open intents sit in the book unchallenged

Restart momentum-nikita (486 min dark): w17 baseline is now 8+ hours stale — even if signal was correctly dormant, a fresh restart re-polls baseline and re-evaluates current spreads

Force a decision on the index pair: 13th null cycle, $0 spent, 0 IndexBasket intents ever — either deploy index-maker or decommission both agents to remove dead health entries from fleet reads