Arb-Hunter-Tom

No latency take on either surface. Binary #1848 taker side requires BTC to rise +$1,018 (1.57%) above current CEX in 24h

new intent >1848 (binary bet, USDC-payable swap, or SSV edge) — 30-min fallback

Summary: Prior drought broke at w235: SSV CEX 179bps above oracle fired Deal #163 (+$0.054, atomic; USDC 79.15→72.21, SSV 1.27→4.27). BTC binary drought worsened — margin -1.93% (w231) → -1.949% (w233), structurally underwater at $65k with ~24h to expiry. SSV edge compressed back to -13bps by w237; w238 (3 min ago) confirms no surface clears take bar. HIGH_WATER 1789

BTC binary remains structurally out of range (-1.949%, worsening each wake). The SSV spike at w235 (+179bps, Deal #163, +$0.054) was correctly captured but has since closed to -13bps. w238 confirms drought resumed; HIGH_WATER at 1847, 0 fills across w236–w238. Note: lifetime token cost $10.28 vs realized PnL $1.15 — negative net, though 5h token spend is $0.

BTC margin -1.949% vs $65k strike (worsening w231→w233); SSV edge closed to -13bps after w235 capture; w236–w238 bestTake=null on both surfaces; HIGH_WATER advancing 1789→1847 on 0 fills across those wakes

Sound and on-mission. Correctly identified and captured the 179bps SSV spike at w235 (highest absolute edge $0.054 > alternate $0.029 — correctly rank-ordered). Correctly deferred on binaries (BTC/strike margin widening, not narrowing). Noted weekend stale-data risk on stock swaps at w233. No churn — each wait is correctly explained. w234 DealAcceptedLogMissingError on #1809 was a legitimate attem

New intent ID > HIGH_WATER (1847) posted to book

New binary bet matching BINARY_BET_HASHES template hash

SSV CEX edge ≥10bps vs oracle (live-polled inside loop, 30s cache)

8 of 10 recent settled swaps — primary swap counterparty supplying USDC-payable intents to snipe

2 recent swaps settled; posts sharp intents arb-hunter can snipe

Posts BTC/ETH binary bets — arb-hunter's binary surface — but BTC strike currently -1.95% underwater; binary anchor expiring imminently

active, repost decision imminent per Ste

w234 attempted swap #1809 (+13bps, all criteria cleared, tx 0x74dbe32) — DealAcceptedLogMissingError, likely race-sniped by another taker. No other missed fills: w231–w233 and w236–w238 show no surface clearing the take bar at the time of each wake.

HIGH_WATER gate (1847) prevents redundant rescans of known intents — correct for a latency-first taker

Fires immediately on every new USDC-payable swap — right cadence to beat other snipers

SSV CEX edge polled live inside the loop (30s cache) — zero-LLM, low latency, well-matched to volatile CEX gaps

30-min fallback is correct for a pure taker with no resting book to manage

Binary template hash filter avoids spurious wakes on non-binary intents

No ETH CEX feed polled — bear-yosher posts ETH binaries, but arb-hunter wakes on them without a pre-check on ETH CEX vs oracle margin

[object Object] serialization bug in wake reason string (w235, also seen at w100) — unresolved, cosmetic but corrupts audit trail

After DealAcceptedLogMissingError (w234), wake exits without rescoring remaining intents in the same poll cycle

After a DealAcceptedLogMissingError, re-run bestTake on remaining intents in the same wake (excluding the failed intent ID) rather than exiting — one race-lost tx shouldn't end the entire snipe scan for that cycle.

[object Object] serialization in wake reason string

w235 wake label contains '[object Object]' — same bug flagged at w100, still unresolved. A toString failure on an object passed to fireWake() corrupts the audit label. Non-blocking but makes wake history unreadable.

Ensure fireWake() argument is always a string: e.g. fireWake(`SSV edge +${edgeBps.toFixed(0)}bps on #${intent.intentId}`) — or add a typeof guard in fireWake itself (core fix if the bug is in wake-watch.js).

No intra-wake retry after DealAcceptedLogMissingError

w234: swap #1809 cleared all criteria (+13bps, USDC approved, within size/buffer/cap) but tx returned DealAcceptedLogMissingError — race-sniped. The agent exited the wake rather than rescoring remaining intents. A second-best intent may have been available.

In the accept-swap path, catch DealAcceptedLogMissingError, push the failed intentId onto a skip-set, and re-run bestTake on the remaining book within the same wake execution.

Lifetime token cost ($10.28) exceeds realized PnL ($1.15)

21 settled deals, $1.15 PnL, $10.28 tokens lifetime = net -$9.13. 5h token spend is $0 (agent not burning tokens between deals), but last_wake_usd=$0.59 is high per wake. If the agent runs 237 wakes at ~$0.04–0.59 average, token cost will continue to outpace deal PnL unless edge frequency or size in

Audit whether the LLM wake is necessary on every poll cycle — if the watcher is already pre-filtering to high-signal wakes (it mostly is), consider whether the per-wake LLM call can be made cheaper (shorter context, smaller model) or replaced with a structured tool-only scan for the no-edge case.

Bear-Yosher

Intent 1820 expired unfilled (9th at $65k). Must maintain exactly one resting BTC-BELOW bet. Tighter strike $64,800 (1.5

intent 1848 resolved | deal-159 near expiry | BTC>$64,750 | ETH>$1,689 | new BinaryBet | 5h fallback

Summary: Prior anchor #1788 expired at ~19:07 UTC June 14; w50 fired on schedule and posted #1820 (BTC<$65,000) as replacement, expiring June 15 19:07 UTC — the one-resting-anchor invariant held without a gap. Deal #159 (BTC<$64,500, $4 USDC locked, exp June 15 17:59 UTC) remains live at BTC $63,752 (1.17% in-the-money). Watcher (w52) armed with correct triggers: #18

The open book intent is #1820 (not #1788) — a correctly-posted new anchor (BTC<$65,000, exp June 15 19:07 UTC) after #1788 expired at 19:07 UTC June 14. Bear-yosher fired w50 precisely at expiry, preserving the invariant. Deal #159 is 1.17% in-the-money with ~22h to run; watcher pre-fires at June 15 17:54 UTC to settle in time.

1 settled custom deal (↔ Mimic-Ljuba); anchor #1820 at $65,000 is 1.85% above current BTC $63,752 — not yet near-decided; thin binary taker pool on open book

Sound and on-mission: agent correctly tracks the exactly-one-resting-anchor invariant through the full intent lifecycle (1713 → 1757 → 1786/deal-159 → 1788 → 1820), tightened strike $65k→$64.5k when appropriate (got filled as deal 159), and explicitly reasons about DCA cap and USDC lock-up each wake. No churn — each of w47–w53 has a distinct, non-redundant trigger. The [object Object] prefix is a

Intent 1820 resolved (filled or expired) via ownIntentResolved

Deal 159 betExpiry approach: DEAL_159_FIRE_SEC = 1781546040 (June 15 17:54 UTC, 5min pre-fire)

BTC > $64,708 (1.5% adverse from baseline $63,752)

ETH > $1,689 (1.5% adverse from baseline $1,664)

New BinaryBet on book (seen-set initialized; excludes already-evaluated #1827)

Sole settled counterparty (1 custom deal); mirrors binary bets and takes winnable open ones — natural taker of bear-yosher anchors

armed, nextFallbackMin=2 (imminent wake)

Takes near-decided binaries on CEX-feed latency; #1820 at $65,000 vs BTC $63,752 is 1.85% OTM — not near-decided yet

Takes near-decided binaries; same OTM barrier as arb-hunter; would need BTC to rally toward $65k

Buys mispriced binaries vs Polymarket implied; possible if Polymarket shows divergent BTC<$65k odds

none — w50–w53 found no takeable BinaryBets; only #1827 (sMSFT<$420, takerInMoneyNow=false) was on book and was correctly evaluated and skipped. Book is thin on binary supply.

ownIntentResolved on #1820 ensures repost fires the moment anchor expires — no TTL gap possible

DEAL_159_FIRE_SEC = expiry − 300 guarantees pre-expiry wake to settle deal 159 on time

seen-set for BinaryBets initialized on first loop tick, filtering already-evaluated #1827 — no false re-fires

BTC/ETH 1.5% adverse triggers match the mission's halt-and-cancel posture exactly

60s poll interval, no sub-minute spam; 5h fallback as safety net

[object Object] serialization in wake reasoning output — cosmetic but renders all log auditing unreadable

Fix the wake reasoning serialization (JSON.stringify instead of string coercion) — affects log auditing across the fleet; no mission logic change required.

[object Object] wake reasoning serialization (fleet-wide)

Every bear-yosher wake w47–w53 prefixes reasoning with '[object Object] ::' — the reasoning object is being coerced to string via template literal or String() instead of JSON.stringify. Same symptom observed fleet-wide (flagged in Step-1 focusAreas for mimic-ljuba). Makes log auditing and root-cause

In the SDK wake-logging path, replace the string coercion of the reasoning value with JSON.stringify(reasoning) when typeof reasoning === 'object'. One-line fix; no agent mission logic changes needed.

Index-Maker

Summary: 36th consecutive null cycle — no change from prior run. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No provisioning signal detected again this cycle: no wallet assignment, no config file, no env var, no watcher. IndexBasket market segment (LONG side) remains fully offline. index-

36 consecutive null cycles with zero change. No wallet, no wakes, no wake script, no watcher armed. This agent has never run. The IndexBasket market is fully offline on both sides (index-maker LONG + index-taker SHORT both dark).

address=null, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=0, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null — agent has never been provisioned across 36 observer cycles

N/A — agent has never executed a single wake; no reasoning to evaluate

MISSING: no watcher configured — nothing fires this agent

Designed as the SHORT counterparty to index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents — but index-taker is also unprovisioned (0 wakes, null address)

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never run and has no address to post intents from

No wake script exists — wake_script_source=null; agent has never been provisioned

Provision the agent: assign a wallet address, write a wake script, and arm the watcher — without these three, the IndexBasket market cannot exist

Agent never provisioned — 36 cycles dark

address=null, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false/pidAlive=false. 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes. This is not a market-structure or counterparty problem — the agent simply does not exist yet as a running process.

Assign a funded wallet, create the wake script (post one LONG IndexBasket intent per wake, publish contract source to indexer), arm the watcher. Coordinate with index-taker provisioning so both sides come online together.

IndexBasket instrument entirely offline — both maker and taker dark

index-maker (LONG) and index-taker (SHORT) are both in identical null state for 36+ cycles. No IndexBasket trade has ever cleared. No agent in the active fleet can substitute for this instrument.

Treat as a paired deployment: provision index-maker and index-taker together, or the first provisioned agent has zero counterparties and will idle indefinitely.

36 consecutive null cycles with zero change. No wallet, no wakes, no wake script, no watcher armed. This agent has never run. The IndexBasket market is fully offline on both sides (index-maker LONG + index-taker SHORT both dark).

Index-Taker

Summary: 37th consecutive null cycle — no change from last run. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Index-maker (sole natural counterparty, sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents) remains health=unknown and equally undeployed. Both sides of the IndexBasket market remain offline with no provisioning

Index-taker has executed 0 wakes across its entire lifetime ($0 tokens). This is the 37th consecutive null cycle with state byte-identical to last run: no wake script, no watcher, no process. Its only natural counterparty (index-maker) is equally undeployed, so even a cold-start would find an empty book of LONG IndexBasket intents to take.

Both index-taker and index-maker have health=unknown, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, no wake scripts, armed=false, pidAlive=false. Neither side of the IndexBasket market has ever been provisioned. No LONG IndexBasket intents exist in the open book (open_intents=null). Zero settled deals on both sides.

No reasoning to evaluate — agent has never woken. The mission (take SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents, audit-first, fail-closed) is well-scoped but entirely theoretical until deployed.

MISSING: no watcher exists — no wake trigger of any kind configured

MISSING: no book-listener for LONG IndexBasket intents

Sole designated counterparty — the only agent missioned to post LONG IndexBasket intents for index-taker to take the SHORT side of

Focused on swaps near oracle mid; does not post IndexBasket custom intents

unmeasurable: agent never woken and no LONG IndexBasket intents visible in open book — no takeable edge could exist until index-maker deploys

No wake script exists — wake_script_source=null

No watcher configured — cannot poll for LONG IndexBasket intents

Deploy index-maker first (prerequisite); then provision index-taker with a watcher that polls for open LONG IndexBasket intents and fires when one appears — pointless to deploy index-taker into an empty book

index-taker never provisioned — 37 consecutive null cycles

No wake script, no watcher, no process has ever run. $0 lifetime tokens. The agent exists in the roster but has never been started.

Provision and deploy index-taker with a wake script that polls the open intent book for LONG IndexBasket intents and audits + takes the SHORT side on ACCEPT. Prerequisite: index-maker must be deployed first to create the supply of intents.

Both sides of IndexBasket market undeployed — index-maker is the blocking dependency

Index-maker is the sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents. It is equally undeployed (health=unknown, 0 wakes). Deploying index-taker without index-maker produces a running agent with a permanently empty book.

Deploy index-maker first, then index-taker. These two agents are a paired system and should be provisioned together.

LP-Maker-Matheus

ETH prefire: #1831/#1832 expiring in 6min. Off-hours: US market closed 20:00 UTC, widened sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT from 8-35bps

Summary: w154 (19:03 UTC) fired Cluster Z renewal: 18 TXs (9 cancels + 9 posts) triggered simultaneously by SSV oracle +43.9bps inversion AND 14min-to-expiry prefire — NO lapse gap observed this cycle (contrast: 9-min hole at ~18:11 UTC last cycle). 11/12 book continuously live since w154; sNVDA ask absent from w157 onward (inventory depleted). w158 self-diagnosed a

Cluster Z renewed cleanly at 19:03 UTC (w154, 18 TXs, no gap); 11/12 intents continuously live. Two active issues: sNVDA ask slot vacant since w157 (inventory depleted, no watcher trigger to recover it) and guard bug (guards drift with quote-implied prices rather than oracle mid). Next renewal: Cluster AB prefire 20:38 UTC encoded in w159 watcher.

sNVDA inventory depleted (w157: 'insufficient sNVDA inventory', confirmed missing in w157/w158/w159 at 11/12 live); guard bug acknowledged at w158 ('Guard bug: set guard=bid/ask implied prices'); realized PnL -$3.25 across 122 deals, tokens_5h_usd $61.91 (39.9% of pool)

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly identified SSV inversion risk at w154 (+43.9bps), fired combined oracle-guard + prefire renewal in one pass, handled concurrent wakes (w155 appears twice, w158 appears twice) without double-posting, and self-diagnosed the guard bug at w158. Quantitative and self-aware — no churn. No evidence of solving the wrong problem.

ETH prefire timestamp 1781468028 (label says 20:14, constant comment says 20:27 — inconsistency)

Cluster AB prefire timestamp 1781469483 (20:38 UTC, 7min before ~20:45 UTC expiry)

New fillable swap intent from non-self poster via newMatches()

9 recent settled swaps; primary taker of LP quotes

9 recent settled swaps; consistent external taker

6 recent settled swaps; rotating positions via LP

pidAlive=false, likely at 20:00 UTC mark

3 recent settled swaps; rebalancing via LP

none identified — w157 declined sNVDA fill correctly due to insufficient inventory (correct guard behavior, not a miss). No evidence of skipped fillable intents in other instruments.

Dual prefire timestamps (ETH 20:14/20:27, Cluster AB 20:38) are a direct lesson from the 18:11 UTC gap last cycle — renewal is now timer-backed not just oracle-

newMatches() watches for fillable swap intents from non-self posters — LP responds to counterparty flow, not only timers

60s poll cadence appropriate for a market-maker reacting to oracle moves

90min fallback at 21:10 UTC safely backstops both prefire events

Guard prices are set to bid/ask implied values (acknowledged bug, w158) — guards drift with stale quotes rather than tracking oracle mid ±buffer, reducing sensi

ETH prefire label says '20:14' but constant comment says '20:27 UTC' — documentation inconsistency could mask a misconfigured timestamp (1781468028 needs verifi

No sNVDA inventory-recovery trigger — sNVDA ask slot will stay vacant until next full renewal unless agent explicitly re-checks balance mid-cycle

Fix guard logic to compute guards as oracle_mid ± (half_spread_bps) at each renewal rather than using bid/ask implied prices — eliminates guard drift with stale quotes and correctly detects genuine oracle moves

Price guards set to bid/ask implied prices, not oracle ±buffer (guard bug, w158)

w158: 'Guard bug: set guard=bid/ask implied prices going fo...' — guards that track quote-implied levels rather than oracle mid can drift as quotes age, creating windows where genuine price moves don't fire the watcher

At each renewal, compute ETH/BTC/SSV guards as oracle_mid ± (half_spread_bps), overwriting the quote-implied values currently used

sNVDA ask slot vacant since w157 with no watcher recovery path

11/12 book live since w157; sNVDA ask missing because inventory is depleted. The watcher has no branch to repost when sNVDA balance recovers between renewal events (e.g. after a buy-side fill or rebalancer top-up from stacker-massimo)

Add a balance-check in the watch loop: if sNVDA wallet ≥ min lot size, fireWake('sNVDA inventory recovered — repost ask')

[object Object] serialization bug in wake labels persists (w100+)

All recent wakes w154–w159 show '[object Object]' prefix in log lines — unresolved SDK serialization issue pollutes wake history and makes automated log parsing unreliable across the fleet

Fix SDK wake-label serialization to JSON.stringify the context object before string interpolation

Mimic-Ljuba

new ≥3pp taker-edge BinaryBet (crypto 24/7, stocks 13:30–20:00 UTC Mon–Fri) OR 60-min fallback

Summary: Deal #159 (BTC, +8pp, intent #1786) accepted in w101 — first binary in ~40 wakes, portfolio dropped from $88.24 to $85.57 (entry cost ~$2.67). w102 fired (was at nextFallbackMin=2 last run) as a HOLD: did NOT take bear-yosher's expiring anchor — likely sub-3pp or already gone. w103–w104 also holds (best edge on board +2pp, below floor). [object Object] seria

Deal #159 is live at $85.57 portfolio. Board has been sub-3pp for 3+ hours (best seen: +2pp in w104). The bigger structural risk: pidAlive=false means the 30s watch loop is not running — mimic-ljuba can miss a freshly-posted binary for up to 60 min, while arb-hunter-tom and vulture-andrew poll continuously.

w103: edges −38pp and −15pp; w104: best edge +2pp (intent #1848, BTC) — both below 3pp floor. No qualifying binary posted since deal #159 accept at ~16:32.

Sound — 3pp floor correctly enforced across w102–w104. Deal #159 at +8pp was a clean within-mission accept. No reasoning churn detected; each wake cites the specific intent and its edge. Bear-yosher's expiring anchor was either expired or sub-3pp at w102 — agent correctly passed rather than stretching the floor.

New BinaryBet (any) posted on board — 30s poll loop detects new intent IDs vs seenBinaryIds baseline

MISSING: Watch loop process is dead (pidAlive=false) — real-time detection offline; agent is fallback-only until next wake restarts the loop

Primary settled counterparty (custom live ↔ Bear-Yosher); posts BinaryBets on BTC/ETH crypto-down thesis that mimic-ljuba mirrors/takes

ok (18 deals, health ok, active this cyc

Secondary settled counterparty (custom live ↔ Polymarket-Ljuba); posts binaries priced against Polymarket implied distribution

Vulture posts 1% floor bets — structurally above the range where mimic-ljuba finds +3pp taker edge; they compete as takers, not as maker/tak

Bear-yosher's expiring anchor (noted in Step-1 as having 4m left at orient time) was not taken in w102. w102 log cites 'no actionable high-edge taker candidate' — consistent with the anchor being at or below 3pp taker edge or already expired/settled. No clear miss given edge discipline. However: with pidAlive=false and 60-min fallback gaps, any BinaryBet posted in the 203 min since w104 could have

Filters by BINARY_TEMPLATE hash before firing — correct specificity for copy-trade/taker mission

60-min fallback ensures wakes even on quiet boards

Baseline seenBinaryIds pattern: avoids false-firing on pre-existing intents at startup

Fires on any new BinaryBet and delegates edge verification to the agent — clean separation of concerns

watch loop process (pidAlive=false) is dead between wakes — reverts to pure 60-min fallback; loses the 30s real-time detection that is the script's competitive

No restart logic: if the watch loop dies mid-fallback, no recovery until the scheduled fallback fires

Ensure the watch loop process is reliably kept alive for the full 60-min fallback window — the agent's edge over arb-hunter-tom depends on detecting new BinaryBets in ~30s, not up to 60 min. A process supervisor (or confirming runWatchLoop

Watch loop dead (pidAlive=false) — real-time BinaryBet detection offline

pidAlive=false while armed=true and nextFallbackMin=56 means the runWatchLoop process has exited. Agent is now purely fallback-driven (≤60 min latency for new binaries). arb-hunter-tom polls on ms-level CEX feeds; vulture-andrew and others are continuously watching. Any high-edge binary posted now w

Audit why the watch loop exits before the fallback deadline (likely the process terminates after the first polling iteration or on a thrown error in runWatchLoop). Add error handling inside the loop body so a single bad intent read doesn't kill the loop.

[object Object] serialization bug — recurred in w100, corrupts wake log

w100 title shows literal '[object Object]' — same serialization failure seen in prior run. The status object is not being JSON.stringify'd before being passed to the wake label. Does not block execution (w101 accepted cleanly after) but corrupts audit trail and makes Step-1 orient harder.

In the wake summary output, ensure any status object is serialized: e.g. `JSON.stringify(status)` rather than string interpolation of an object. Locate the status log line in the agent's wake script and add explicit serialization.

Momentum-Nikita

Fast 6h momentum gap (1.40pp) below 2pp edge threshold; dual-confirmation rule requires both fast and slow to confirm be

SSV/ETH fast gap ≥2pp | new fair SSV seller ≥$2 | US mkt open 13:30 UTC Jun 15 | 8h fallback

Summary: The 20:00 UTC market-close trigger fired on schedule: w40 (20:01 UTC) killed the stale w39 watcher and deployed a new crypto-only watcher; pidAlive is now TRUE (not false as Step-1 noted from pre-w40 state). No trade at w40 — fast gap 1.40pp and dual-confirmation rule (fast+slow both ≥2pp) not met; 8th consecutive hold since w31. Portfolio unchanged: USDC $4

Market-close transition executed correctly at 20:01 UTC (w40): stale watcher killed, crypto-only watcher armed with 8h fallback (~04:01 UTC Jun 15) and US market-open expansion trigger at 13:30 UTC Jun 15. Portfolio stable at $102.81; fast gap 1.40pp still below 2pp dual-confirmation threshold — 8th disciplined hold since w31. No infra issue.

Fast momentum gap 1.730pp (w39) and 1.40pp (w40) both below 2pp dual-confirmation threshold; agent's rule requires both fast AND slow lookbacks to confirm — correct mission application. No counterparty or toolchain block.

Sound and solving the right problem. Dual-confirmation rule applied consistently for 8 wakes; market-close transition logic executed cleanly (stale watcher killed, crypto-only universe deployed). No re-derivation churn in w39-w40; reasoning is tighter than earlier wakes.

Fast 6h crypto gap (SSV vs ETH/BTC) ≥2pp from dynamic baseline

New fair-value SSV seller ≥$2 notional at ≤oracle+0.5%

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 15 — re-expand to full 6-name universe

MISSING: slow lookback confirmation — watcher fires on fast gap alone, but agent decision rule requires fast+slow both ≥2pp

7/8 recent swaps settled with LP-Maker; only reliable liquidity source for momentum rotations

1/8 recent deals; occasional overlap on sharp swaps

5 open intents, all ~1% spread above LP-

1/8 recent deals; DCA taker can cross when rotating toward same asset

none — agent is a momentum taker; no gap above 2pp has appeared since w31. No resting intents in its framework to miss.

Crypto-only during US market close correctly narrows to 24/7 liquid assets (BTC/ETH/SSV)

Dynamic baseline capture on first poll — no hardcoded price literals

≥$2 notional guard on SSV seller trigger preserved from w34 fix

US market open 13:30 UTC Jun 15 expansion trigger is mission-aligned and removes manual intervention need

8h fallback appropriate for overnight crypto-only watch

Watcher fires on fast gap ≥2pp alone, but agent's rule requires fast AND slow both to confirm — watcher can burn a full LLM wake (~$0.79) when only fast confirm

Wake script source truncated in display at 'newMa...' — display artifact most likely, but confirm full script integrity

Add lightweight slow lookback pre-check inside runWatchLoop: if fast gap ≥2pp but slow <2pp, log and return (suppress fire) rather than waking the full agent. Eliminates token-burning false-alarm wakes from fast-only confirmation.

Watcher fires on fast gap alone; dual-confirmation rule also requires slow

The wake script triggers on fast 6h crypto gap ≥2pp, but the agent's decision rule (as stated in w39-w40) requires both fast AND slow lookbacks to confirm before acting. A fast-only trigger fires a full LLM call (~$0.79 per wake) that ends in a hold when slow disagrees — wasted tokens.

In runWatchLoop, after computing fast gap ≥2pp, do a cheap slow lookback check (e.g., 24h return from on-disk priceHistory); suppress fireWake unless both thresholds are met.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Intent #1849 fails edge bar set in wake 32 (1-2% premium or 4h+ expiry). Premium 5%, time 1.47h — both below threshold.

new audited Option intent (ETH/BTC) appears OR 6h fallback

Summary: No new fills since prior summary; settled_deals holds at 5 lifetime. W34 fired 82 min after w33 on intent #1849 (template hash matched → watcher IS seeing audited Options) but correctly rejected it: premium 5%, expiry 1.47h — both fail the edge bar set in w32 (cheap premium AND ≥4h expiry). The 4 visible 0x57F8…B0ff settlements in the window are all pre-exis

0 new fills since w28 (deal #150, sNVDA call). W34 found intent #1849 with the correct template hash but rejected it (5% premium, 1.47h expiry < 4h threshold). All 4 visible 0x57F8 settlements are pre-existing window replays — the lifetime=5 count is unchanged. Watcher correctly armed; thin option flow is the constraint, not a toolchain break.

No audited Option intents meeting edge bar since w28/deal #150. Intent #1849 appeared (correct template hash confirmed working) but premium 5% + expiry 1.47h both fail the bar. 0x57F8 counterparty not posting new options in this window. option-writer-matheus is the expected primary source but deal f

Sound and on-mission. W34 applied the edge bar derived in w32 consistently — premium 5% and expiry 1.47h both fail, so no action. No churn: each wake evaluates fresh intents, defers correctly. Solving the right problem. One structural gap: the agent took an sNVDA call at w28, but the watcher's ETH_BTC_ASSETS filter now makes stock options invisible between fallbacks — sound reasoning on a narrowed

new audited Option intent matching AUDITED_TEMPLATE_HASH with ETH/BTC underlying

Primary writer; intent #1849 likely from this agent (template hash matched, mission writes both stock+crypto options)

Mission includes making binary options; could occasionally write audited Options, but primary role is taker

none on ETH/BTC options — intent #1849 correctly rejected (premium 5%, expiry 1.47h, both below bar). However: stock options (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) from option-writer-matheus are structurally invisible to the watcher between 6h fallbacks due to the ETH_BTC_ASSETS filter — deal #150 (sNVDA call, w28) would not trigger a wake under current watcher.

fires only on NEW audited Option intents (Set-diff prevents re-firing on unchanged book)

template hash filter ensures only verified Option contracts trigger a wake

60s poll cadence appropriate for option market where intents live minutes to hours

6h fallback ensures agent wakes in quiet markets

ETH_BTC_ASSETS filter excludes sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT — the agent already proved it takes stock options (deal #150 sNVDA call at w28); those now only surface on the

once an intent is seen-and-rejected, it won't re-fire even if counterparty re-prices it cheaper — only caught on next 6h fallback

Expand ETH_BTC_ASSETS to include the stock underlyings option-writer-matheus writes (sNVDA, sAAPL, sMSFT) — this is the highest-value change: it recovers the deal class that generated deal #150 and aligns the watcher with the agent's actual

ETH_BTC_ASSETS filter silently excludes stock options the agent is configured to take

Deal #150 (w28) was an sNVDA call — the agent's mission is ETH/BTC AND stock options from option-writer-matheus. The current watcher filter means sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT options only surface at the 6h fallback, not on appearance. A short-lived cheap sNVDA call (≤4h expiry) would be missed entirely.

Add sNVDA, sAAPL, sMSFT to the ETH_BTC_ASSETS Set (rename it WATCHED_UNDERLYINGS). One-line change in current.ts.

Watcher blind to price drops on previously-rejected intents

seenIntentIds is a Set — once an intent is seen at 5% premium and rejected, it stays in the set. If option-writer-matheus re-prices it to 1.5% (into the edge zone), no wake fires until the 6h fallback.

Track (intentId → lastSeenPremium); fire wake when a previously-seen intent's premium drops by >30% — catches re-priced options without adding noise.

Option-Writer-Matheus

(1) Portfolio at 66% of 70% target; one more stock purchase bridged to 81%. Fair price on sAAPL (0.35% premium). (2) Thr

ETH call (intent 1849) resolves (accepted/expired), or 110 min fallback to settle

Summary: 0x6e2/0x6e3 (oracle−0.5%, posted w5 16:42 with 1h TTL) expired unfilled; their resolution fired the watcher which triggered w6 (16:47). At w6 the agent adapted — rather than re-posting a passive sAAPL bid, it accepted a resting sAAPL ask (intent 1776 → deal 160: 0.05 sAAPL + 14.56 USDC, settled ↔ 0xBd6a) and posted a fresh sNVDA buy as intent 1791 (10 USDC,

The 70% swap engine is working and growing more adaptive (w6 took a resting offer rather than re-posting a passive bid, producing deal 160). But the 30% option-writing sleeve has been silent for 5 consecutive wakes since w2's cancellation — no pricing, no deferral reasoning, no intents — and w6 makes zero mention of it despite a 55+ USDC buffer. PnL −$11.38 on 20 settled deals.

Option sleeve: 1 intent in 6 wakes (w1 canceled w2); zero option intents w3–w6. Swap engine active: 20 settled deals, deal 160 (w6) via active taking. The option gap is not counterparty-starved — option-taker-matheus has 5 deals but is supply-starved because option-writer stopped supplying.

Sound for the swap engine — w6 showed genuine book-awareness by accepting intent 1776 (active take) rather than re-posting another expiring passive bid; that is an improvement over w3–w5's repeated passive posting cycle. But the option sleeve receives zero reasoning across w3–w6: no pricing check, no explicit deferral decision, no hedge logic. This looks like systematic LLM deprioritization of the

intent 1791 resolves (ownIntentResolved fills or expires)

Primary counterparty (3 of 5 recent deals, 119 lifetime). Currently holds live sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVDA, implied 204.7 USDC/sNVDA

Natural demand-side for options option-writer's silent sleeve would produce; 5 lifetime deals but currently starved of new option supply fro

1 settled deal; also accumulates sNVDA/sAAPL but stacker-massimo's newMatches() blind-spot may prevent it from seeing 1791 as a takeable int

active, structurally blind to resting bi

LP-Maker's live sNVDA ask at 204.7 implied is crossed against 1791's 205.0 bid — LP-Maker should take 1791 on its next wake, so this may self-resolve. Structural miss: option-taker-matheus has no new option supply to work with because option-writer's sleeve has been silent for 5 wakes; every wake option-writer skips is a lost deal with its natural counterparty.

Watches intent 1791 via ownIntentResolved — fires on the exact event (fill or expiry), not a blind timer

2h fallback prevents stall if resolution event is missed

60s poll cadence is appropriate for swap settlement

No option-sleeve prompt or label: when 1791 resolves, the next wake LLM has no standing nudge to evaluate option pricing — it has consistently deprioritized the

Change the watcher label to: `intent 1791 resolves — ALSO evaluate option-writing sleeve (silent since w2, 5 wakes)` so the firing context forces the LLM to address both engines, not just the pending swap.

Option sleeve silent for 5 consecutive wakes (30% of mission dormant)

1 ETH call posted w1 (6 USDC, 4% premium, strike 1682), canceled w2. W3–W6 reason exclusively about swaps. W6 had 55+ USDC buffer and no mention of option pricing. LLM systematically deprioritizes options when a swap intent is live.

Add explicit two-engine protocol to CLAUDE.md: 'Each wake: (1) check swap rebalance need, (2) independently check option sleeve — fetch BTC/ETH spot, price a call/put, post if spread is positive. Option check is not optional even if a swap intent is pending.' Wake-script label change above reinforce

Passive stock bids repeatedly expire unfilled (w3/w4/w5); active taking is better

0x68e/0x68f (w3), 0x6b4/0x6b5 (w4), 0x6e2/0x6e3 (w5) all expired without fill. W6 active take of intent 1776 (deal 160) worked where passive posting failed three times. No agent provides consistent stock sell-side, so passive bids are mostly wasted TTL.

Encode active-take preference in CLAUDE.md: 'Before posting a new passive buy intent, scan resting asks within 0.5% of oracle and take the best one directly; only post a passive bid if no resting ask exists.' This mirrors what w6 did successfully.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities. All directional swaps <1% edge. BTC binary edge requires distribution data (need poll-polyma

Summary: sAAPL exit resolved: w55 re-posted at oracle mid −1% (#0x71b), w56 (19:14 UTC) confirmed fill and immediately deployed 7 USDC into sMSFT <$420 binary #0x0723 (79.94% implied, June 19 expiry). All sAAPL inventory cleared; sole open intent is now #0x0723 on book. Wake script armed on #0x0723 resolution + any new book intent, 24h fallback (nextFallbackMin=1386

sAAPL exit confirmed filled at w56 (19:14 UTC) after oracle-mid attempt + 1%-discount re-post. One live bet: sMSFT <$420 binary #0x0723 (7 USDC risked, want 1.756 USDC, 79.94% implied, June 19). Agent correctly resting with nextFallbackMin=1386. Structural inefficiency: 35/55 repeat wakes (63.6%) driven by a trigger that fires on every book intent regardless of instrument type.

4 lifetime settled deals across 55 wakes (7.3% conversion); mission requires Polymarket-mispriced bets, which are genuinely rare. Counterparties posting evaluatable binary/option instruments are sparse: only Mimic-Ljuba (1 custom deal) confirmed as viable binary counterparty so far.

Sound for the primary mission. The multi-step sAAPL exit (oracle mid → failed → 1% discount re-post → filled) was adaptive and cleaned up the stranded inventory correctly. Deploying freed capital into sMSFT binary at 79.94% implies Polymarket comparison is functioning. However, 35/55 repeat wakes indicate the agent is woken by noise (LP-Maker churn) before finding nothing actionable — wasteful but

Any new intent on book — OVER-BROAD: fires on all intents, not pre-filtered to ≥8pp binary or ≥3% swap edge

Swap counterparty for position exits; 1 confirmed settled swap

Custom binary counterparty; 1 confirmed custom deal settled

Posts BinaryBets that could be evaluated against Polymarket implied

Posts sharp binaries; might be mispriced vs Polymarket distribution on specific events

Unmeasurable: Polymarket feed comparison is internal to each wake — no external audit trail for whether a passed intent was actually mispriced. 35 repeat wakes found no edge, which is consistent with genuine rarity rather than a detection miss. Cannot confirm or deny missed edges without access to the Polymarket oracle at wake time.

ownIntentResolved check on #0x0723 is exactly right — agent should wake the moment its live bet settles

24h fallback is appropriate; Polymarket arb is a patient, low-frequency mission

Zero-LLM watcher with proper deadline guard and runWatchLoop structure

New-intent trigger fires on ANY book intent — no pre-filter for BinaryBet/Option type or ≥8pp/≥3% edge threshold; LP-Maker-Matheus's constant reposting (11/21 s

lastSeenIntentIds Set grows unbounded across poll cycles — minor memory leak in a long-running watcher

Add instrument-type pre-filter before fireWake in the new-intent loop: only fire if the intent is a BinaryBet/Option with implied edge ≥8pp OR a swap with oracle edge ≥3% — mirrors the agent's own action threshold and should reduce repeat w

Over-broad new-intent trigger drives 63.6% repeat-wake rate

current.ts fires on every new intent regardless of type. LP-Maker-Matheus posts/reposts constantly across 11 open slots; polymarket-ljuba wakes, runs Polymarket comparison, finds no binary/option edge, defers. 35/55 wakes are repeats; at $0.61/wake avg that's ~$21 in unnecessary token spend attribut

In current.ts snapshot loop, check intent.templateType (BinaryBet or Option) AND implied edge before calling fireWake — same threshold the agent uses to act (≥8pp binary, ≥3% swap)

Double-post exit pattern not guarded

w49+w50 posted two sAAPL exits within 1 minute; w54+w55 did the same. Both pairs relied on TTL expiry as the only dedup mechanism. No active check for an existing open exit before posting.

Before posting any exit intent, scan own open intents for an existing exit on the same instrument (same give asset); skip if one is live

Rebalancer-Lior

Correct plan (trim sMSFT → DCA BTC) requires US market open for stock oracle to be live. Waiting.

Monday 2026-06-16T13:30Z stock open -- trim sMSFT, DCA BTC

Summary: Still correctly armed and silent since w47 (06-14T13:46Z, now 385 min ago — 121 more min elapsed since prior summary, zero new activity as expected). nextFallbackMin=2539 arithmetically confirms the fallback deadline is 06-16T14:30Z UTC (2539 min from ~20:11Z now), and the market-open check fires at 13:30Z Monday. sMSFT approved in w46; Monday wake goes stra

Confirmed correctly armed: watcher fires at 2026-06-16T13:30Z (US market open) with fallback at 14:30Z. nextFallbackMin=2539 is arithmetically consistent with fallback at 06-16T14:30Z. No unexpected wakes since w47 (385 min ago). Plan: trim sMSFT +1.63pp → USDC → DCA BTC -1.61pp. sMSFT approval already done (w46). Nothing to fix here.

US stock market closed until Monday 06-16T13:30Z; sMSFT oracle unavailable outside market hours; agent correctly not trading. No counterparty or infra fault.

Sound and solving the right problem. w47 explicitly deferred to market open; w46 pre-cleared the sMSFT approval to remove the one remaining blocker. The agent is not churn-looping — 385 min of silence is correct behavior given the structural constraint.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z (US market open, 5-min poll)

Primary swap counterparty; settled 10/16 recent deals, holds 11 open intents — will be the sMSFT buyer when trim posts Monday

One prior swap settled; pidAlive=false right now but market-close trigger likely; may be back by Monday open

none — stocks closed, BTC gap filled in w44/w45, ETH at target. No actionable book opportunities exist until Monday market open.

Specific, non-speculative trigger: hard timestamp for US market open (2026-06-16T13:30Z), not a book-price poll

5-min poll cadence appropriate for a patient DCA agent waiting on a scheduled event hours away

Fallback at 14:30Z (60 min after open) provides safety net without over-firing

Zero-LLM watcher; sMSFT approval pre-completed in w46 so Monday wake can execute immediately

[object Object] serialization in wake log output — cosmetic but indicates the wake-log formatter has a core bug (present since w40b, affects readability of all

None mission-critical. The script is correct. If anything: add a one-line assertion at wake-fire time that the sMSFT approval is still current (non-blocking, cheap sanity check before committing the trim).

[object Object] serialization in wake log prefix

Every wake since w40b logs '[object Object] ::' instead of a structured header. Affects rebalancer-lior and mimic-ljuba (Step-1 flags same bug). Log readability only — agent execution is unaffected.

Fix wake-log formatter in shared SDK to serialize the context object to JSON (or a human-readable string) before prefixing the log line.

Stacker-Massimo

Bid 1833 is on-price (0% drift < 0.5% threshold) with ~5.7h remaining. Nothing to take, nothing to refresh.

intent 1833 fill/expiry | sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC | oracle drift >0.5%

Summary: newMatches() blind-spot confirmed active again — LP-Maker's sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVDA, 12m TTL) was posted AFTER w41 (17:58) yet BEFORE watcher reseeded; with 35m remaining on the fallback when the ask had ≤12m left at Step-1 time (~7min ago), the ask has almost certainly already expired unfilled. This is not a delay — it's a permanent structural m

LP-Maker's live sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVDA, ~$204.73 implied) posted after w41 — watcher's seenIntents seeded it at arm time so newMatches() never fires; with 35m left on the fallback vs ≤12m TTL on the ask, the fallback arrives ~23m after expiry. Permanent miss, 6th time structurally reproduced. Fix is one line: replace newMatches() with a full-scan every poll.

current.ts lines 55–58: seenIntents seeded on first loop; newMatches() fires only on net-new intentIds. w41 log: 'No sell-side in book' at 17:58 — LP-Maker ask arrived after w41 but before or at watcher seed. Step-1 reports ask with 12m TTL ~7min ago; fallback has 35m remaining → miss is permanent.

Wake LLM reasoning is sound and on-mission — w37 correctly identified and took intent 1640 at ≤oracle×1.01, settling deal 153. The problem is entirely in the watcher: the LLM never gets a chance to reason about pre-seed resting asks because the watcher never fires.

intent 1599 resolved (filled/expired) — ownIntentResolved()

oracle drift >0.5% from hardcoded ORACLE_BASE $205.10

NEW post-seed sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC via newMatches()

45-min fallback (35m remaining this cycle)

MISSING: full-scan every poll for ANY resting takeable sNVDA sell regardless of arrival time

3 of 4 logged deals; live sNVDA ask on book right now; dominant and reliable counterparty

active — live ask, likely expiring immin

1 settled deal; episodically posts sNVDA during portfolio rebalancing

2 open intents flagged expired/uncertain

could post sNVDA sells during rotation; not yet confirmed as counterparty

LP-Maker live ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVDA, ≤$204.73 implied price, within oracle×1.01) — posted after w41, seeded into seenIntents at watcher arm, permanently invisible to trigger 3. With 35m fallback remaining vs ≤12m TTL at Step-1 time (~7min ago), ask has almost certainly expired unfilled. Structural miss, same pattern as w38.

ownIntentResolved() correctly monitors bid 1599 — fills/expiry trigger immediate wake

oracle drift >0.5% trigger correctly catches price moves that shift takeable range

isTakeableSnvdaSell() logic is correct: checks posterGives=sNVDA, costUsdc ≤12, impliedPrice ≤oracle×1.01

60s poll cadence appropriate — sub-minute but not spammy for a ~10 USDC taker

trigger 3 uses newMatches() with seenIntents seeded on first poll — silently absorbs any ask resting at arm time

for short-TTL asks (≤12m), 45-min fallback fires after expiry — blind-spot produces permanent misses, not just delays

ORACLE_BASE hardcoded to $205.10 at script-write time — becomes stale if oracle has moved since w41 posted bid 1599; drift trigger threshold shifts silently

Replace trigger 3 entirely: remove seenIntents / newMatches(); instead run `if (intents.some(i => isTakeableSnvdaSell(i, oracleNow))) fireWake(...)` every poll iteration. Catches pre-seed and post-seed resting asks equally; no structural bl

newMatches() blind-spot: pre-seed resting asks permanently missed on short TTLs

current.ts trigger 3 seeds seenIntents on first loop iteration (line 55–58); any ask already on-book at that moment is silently skipped. For short-TTL asks (LP-Maker's current 12m ask), the 45-min fallback fires ~33m after expiry — miss is permanent. This cycle: LP-Maker ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVD

Remove newMatches()/seenIntents from trigger 3. Replace with: `if (intents.some(i => isTakeableSnvdaSell(i, oracleNow))) fireWake(`takeable sNVDA sell on book`);` — runs every 60s poll, zero blind-spot.

ORACLE_BASE hardcoded at script-write time — stale after price moves

ORACLE_BASE = 205.10 is embedded in the script at the time the LLM writes current.ts. If sNVDA oracle has moved since bid 1599 was posted, the drift trigger fires at wrong thresholds. Low severity vs the newMatches issue but causes ghost fires.

Fetch live oracle on first poll and use that as the baseline, or pass current oracle price as an arm-time env var that the watcher reads rather than hardcoding.

Swing-Nikita

Nothing clears the 1.5% dislocation threshold. SSV closest at +1.37% but sub-threshold and zero inventory. Stocks market

crypto buy-dip ≥1.5% OR US market open 2026-06-15T13:30 UTC (4h fallback)

Summary: Prior summary placed BTC gap-to-trigger at ~$708 at w37 (spot ~$63,909 vs baseline 64163.20; 1.5% requires ~$962 deviation, only ~$254 seen). Now 78 min post-w37: spot still ~$63,909 — gap unchanged at ~$708, no narrowing. Stocks closed all day Sunday (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT gated), SSV still zero inventory (blocked since at least w30). LP-Maker's sNVDA ask is ir

BTC is -0.40% below baseline 64163.20 at ~$63,909 — gap-to-trigger unchanged at ~$708 since w37 78 min ago. Stocks gated (Sunday), SSV inventory-blocked. ETH (baseline 1663.44, trigger ~$1,638) is the sole unconstrained live trigger; its current price is not in this snapshot. Agent is ALIVE, armed, 45 min to next fallback — correctly waiting in a flat market.

BTC deviation -0.40% vs 1.5% threshold (need drop to ~$63,201 from ~$63,909). Stocks gated by isUsMarketHours() Sunday. SSV zero inventory documented w30–w33, still blocked. No dislocation on any asset across w34–w37 (4 consecutive no-trade wakes since session restart).

Sound and on-mission. w37 correctly computed no asset ≥1.5% dislocated. Trailing-baseline approach (regenerated each wake from fresh scan) is correct for mean-reversion: slow drift updates the baseline, so only sudden moves trigger — not gradual decay. The agent is not re-deriving the same wrong move; it's correctly standing down. Right problem, right logic.

≥1.5% deviation from trailing avg on any active asset (60s poll)

MISSING: If SSV crosses 1.5% the watcher fires, but zero inventory causes immediate abort — wasted wake and tokens with no possible trade

Both recent settled deals cleared via LP-Maker; 11 open intents across swap pairs; dominant hub for delivered swaps

Active — 119 lifetime deals, 11 open int

DCA via delivered swaps — could cross swing if rebalancing same assets in opposite direction on a dislocation day

none — no asset crossed 1.5% dislocation threshold across w34–w37; stocks closed Sunday; SSV inventory-blocked regardless of price. LP-Maker's live sNVDA ask is a stock, gated today.

Baselines regenerated each wake from fresh price scan — trailing average stays current without LLM involvement

isUsMarketHours() gate correctly prevents Sunday triggers on sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT

2h fallback ensures re-check even in flat markets; cadence appropriate for a patient mean-reversion agent

Zero-LLM watcher with clean threshold math; can't spuriously fire on 'book non-empty'

SSV included in 60s poll loop despite zero inventory since w30 — any SSV dislocation fires a wake that immediately aborts

ETH is the only unconstrained live trigger (baseline 1663.44, buy at ~$1,638) but its proximity to threshold is invisible in status logs

Guard SSV in the poll loop with an inventory pre-check (or remove it from BASELINES until restocked): `if (sym === 'SSV' && knownZeroInventory) continue;` — prevents wasted wakes that always abort with 'SSV blocked by zero inventory', confi

SSV zero-inventory wake waste — 6+ wakes affected

SSV has had zero inventory since at least w30 (documented in every wake log w30–w33, and blocked again at the structural level). The watcher still polls SSV every 60s. If SSV drops 1.5% the watcher fires a full wake that immediately aborts: 'SSV blocked by zero inventory'. Pattern confirmed across 6

Remove SSV from BASELINES in current.ts until inventory is replenished, or add a lightweight inventory check inside the loop before the price read. Agent CLAUDE.md should document the re-stocking trigger (e.g., receive SSV from another agent or direct deposit).

Vulture-Andrew

1834 caused watcher infinite loop via check-my-quotes flag (rivals below floor → tool sets target=1%, 1.77% exceeds 0.25

15 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781470154; next poll 80s

Summary: LP-Maker compressed spreads further to 0.22-0.35% this cycle (from 1.31% last run), widening the gap vs Vulture's 1% floor and making all 7 maker positions structurally uncompetitive. Wakes w117-w120 correctly cleared stale/undercut quotes (4 buys requoted, SSV 1685 cancelled after rival 1704 appeared at 0.35%), and w121-w124 found 0 takeable/0 mirrorable ed

Vulture is healthy (0 wake errors, correct cancel/requote discipline, concurrent-duplicate handled in w124), but LP-Maker's 0.22-0.35% structurally undercuts Vulture's 1% floor across all 7 assets and 0 takeable edges have appeared for 4 straight wakes (w121-w124). With $0.40 realized PnL vs $101.07 lifetime token cost, the burn-to-edge ratio demands a pivot — either lower the maker floor below 0.5% or shift maker volume to instruments LP-Maker doesn't cover.

0 takeable/0 mirrorable w121-w124; rivals at 0.22-0.35% (w123) vs Vulture 1% floor; 5 sells + 5 buys open across sAAPL/sMSFT/ETH/BTC/SSV with no takers; recent settled: 4 deals ↔ LP-Maker, 1 ↔ Momentum-Nikita

Sound and on-mission: correctly running scan-edges + check-my-quotes each wake, canceling undercut positions (w120: rival 1704 at 0.35% vs Vulture 1685 at 1.91% → cancelled/reposted), handled concurrent-wake collision (w124 cancelled duplicate 1724). The loop is well-executed but solving the right problem against the wrong constraint — LP-Maker's floor renders Vulture's 1% floor non-competitive re

new takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges every 30s)

~5 min pre-expiry of soonest open intent

quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: binary near-decided / approaching-resolution trigger

4/5 recent deals ↔ LP-Maker; but direction unclear — if LP-Maker is taker on Vulture's maker intents, Vulture may be mispriced in LP-Maker's

ok — dominant hub, 14/16 recent fleet de

1 recent swap deal; rotates across same asset universe Vulture covers

DCA swaps in same assets; could take Vulture's maker bids on rebalance slices

Crypto-down taker; ETH/BTC sell bids Vulture posts align if BTC conviction fires

none confirmed — scan-edges returned 0 takeable w121-w124; no binary near-decided events surfaced in any wake; LP-Maker's 0.22-0.35% is too tight to mirror profitably at 1% floor

30s token-free polling via scan-edges + check-my-quotes — correct zero-LLM loop for a reactive taker/maker hybrid

Pre-seeded honeypot IDs (779/836/869) prevent watcher from re-firing on confirmed bad intents

Pre-expiry trigger preserves book presence around intent TTL windows

check-my-quotes cancelCmds correctly fired in w120 catching SSV undercut before agent woke

No binary near-decided / approaching-resolution scan — Vulture's mission explicitly covers near-decided binaries but the watcher has no specific trigger for the

1% edge floor hardcoded; with LP-Maker at 0.22-0.35%, Vulture's maker intents will structurally never attract organic takers on shared instruments

Add a binary near-decided check to the 30s poll (e.g., scan-edges reporting binaries within N% of strike expiry) with a fireWake trigger — this is Vulture's differentiated edge vs LP-Maker, which doesn't compete in binary resolution events.

Maker floor 1% vs LP-Maker 0.22-0.35% — structurally uncompetitive on all 7 shared assets

LP-Maker compressed from 1.31% (last cycle) to 0.22-0.35% this cycle. Vulture's 1% floor is 3-4x LP-Maker's tightest spread on identical instruments. No taker will prefer Vulture's 1% over LP-Maker's 0.35%. Result: 0 maker fills in w121-w124 despite 10-11 live intents.

Lower maker floor to <0.5% to compete, OR restrict maker intents to instruments LP-Maker doesn't quote (binary bets, options, index baskets) where 1% may be competitive.

4/5 recent deals ↔ LP-Maker — direction unverified, adverse selection risk

If LP-Maker is taking Vulture's maker quotes (not vice versa), LP-Maker sees edge in them — Vulture's oracle pricing may lag LP-Maker's real-time feed. Requires inspecting deal maker/taker sides in settled_deals_detail.

Check deal direction for the 4 LP-Maker trades; if LP-Maker is consistently taker-side on Vulture intents, Vulture's oracle reference is stale relative to LP-Maker's and needs a tighter price source.

Binary near-decided path has no watcher trigger

Vulture's mission includes 'near-decided binaries' but w121-w124 show only swap scanning; no binary expiry events fired wakes. Vulture relies on 2h fallback or accidental quote-erosion path to catch approaching binary resolutions — potentially missing its highest-edge category.

Extend scan-edges output to flag binaries approaching resolution (e.g., <5% from strike with <2h TTL), and add a fireWake trigger in the watcher when one appears.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

LP HUB DOMINATES; TAKERS THIN

~13 of 16 recent deals; LP-Maker-Matheus hub for all swap flow

3 recent (0x57F8↔Option-Taker pre-existing); 2 open binaries (Bear-Yosher #1820, Polymarket-Ljuba #0x0723)

LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ 0xBd6a…9863 (6 deals) | Swing-Nikita → LP-Maker (2) | Momentum-Nikita → LP-Maker (1) | Option-Writer → LP-Maker (1)

ACTIVE — 11/12 book slots live; sNVDA ask absent (inventory depleted w157+)

Bear-Yosher → Mimic-Ljuba (1 settled deal #159; anchor #1820 live $65k expiry June 15 19:07 UTC)

THIN — best edge on board +2pp (intent #1848), below Mimic's 3pp floor; no new q

0x57F8…B0ff → Option-Taker-Matheus (3 pre-existing deals); option-writer-matheus swap-dominant w3–w6

SUPPLY DRY — option-writer off-mission; option-taker waiting; last qualifying fi

Polymarket-Ljuba → (open intent #0x0723 sMSFT<$420, exp June 19 20:00 UTC; no counterparty yet)

RESTING — 4 lifetime deals in 55 wakes; sole intent live until June 19

index-maker ⇄ index-taker (zero activity)

DARK — both unprovisioned 36–37 consecutive cycles; no IndexBasket intents anywh

LP-Maker-Matheus compressed spreads to 0.22–0.35% this cycle (from 1.31% last run)

Vulture-Andrew's 1% hard floor makes all 5 open sells + 5 buys structurally uncompetitive; 0 takeable/mirrorable edges i

LP-Maker rivals confirmed 0.22–0.35% at w123; Vulture 5 open intents (SSV 24m, ETH 23m) unfilled; 0 Vulture-as-taker deals this cycle

option-writer-matheus shifted to swap-dominant execution (0 option intents posted w3–w6)

option-taker-matheus supply-starved; intent #1849 (5% premium, 1.47h expiry) failed edge bar — no qualifying option avai

option-writer: 1 option intent total in 6 wakes (w1 canceled w2); deal 160 (w6) was a swap take ↔ 0xBd6a; option-taker: 5 lifetime deals, 0 new this cycle

Stacker-Massimo newMatches() seeds seenIntents inside first loop, not at watcher startup

LP-Maker's sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.058622 sNVDA, 12m TTL) posted after w41 (17:58 UTC) expires unfilled — structural perm

current.ts lines 55–58; w41 log 'No sell-side in book'; ask arrived post-w41 with 12m TTL; Stacker fallback 35m remaining at miss time

Rebalancer-Lior correctly dormant until Monday 06-16T13:30Z (US market closed)

Momentum-Nikita's primary agent counterparty offline until Monday; Momentum's only live counterparty is LP-Maker; dual-c

Rebalancer nextFallbackMin=2523 (~06-16T14:30Z deadline); 1 Rebalancer↔Momentum deal in recent window (pre-close); Momentum fast gap 1.40pp at w40

index-maker and index-taker both unprovisioned for 37 consecutive cycles

IndexBasket market entirely dark; no LONG or SHORT side intents ever posted; segment has produced zero liquidity since t

Both: address=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, armed=false, wake_script_source=null; no IndexBasket intents in open book

IndexBasket fully dark: both sides unprovisioned 37 cycles

index-maker (36 cycles) and index-taker (37 cycles) have never been provisioned. No wallets, no CLAUDE.md, no wake scripts, armed=false for both. Zero IndexBasket intents have ever appeared on the open book. The entire market segment is offline.

Both: address=null, 0 wakes, $0 tokens_lifetime_usd, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false; open book contains 0 IndexBasket intents

Provision wallets + CLAUDE.md + wake scripts for BOTH agents simultaneously — neither is useful without the other as counterparty

option-writer off-mission: 0 option intents w3–w6 → option-taker starved

option-writer-matheus posted exactly 1 option intent across 6 wakes (w1, canceled w2); w3–w6 are swap-only. This is not counterparty scarcity — option-taker confirmed its template hash works (intent #1849 correctly detected at w34) but has no supply from its primary source. The option market is frozen by a mission drift, not thin demand.

option-writer deal 160 (w6) was swap take ↔ 0xBd6a; option-taker 5 lifetime deals, 0 new; #1849 failed bar (5% premium + 1.47h expiry both below threshold); last qualifying fill deal #150/w28

Restore option-writer-matheus primary mission: post ETH call/put intents each wake; swap execution is secondary — only when option book already has live coverage

Stacker-Massimo structural blind-spot: short-TTL LP-Maker asks permanently missed

newMatches() fires only on net-new intentIds seeded during the first loop iteration after a wake. Any intent posted in the gap between Stacker's last wake and watcher re-seed is invisible — including LP-Maker's 12m-TTL sNVDA ask confirmed missed at w41. This is a permanent structural defect, not a race condition.

current.ts lines 55–58; w41 log 'No sell-side in book' at 17:58; sNVDA ask arrived post-w41 with 12m TTL; Stacker fallback 35m remaining = miss is irreversible

Seed seenIntents from the live book at watcher initialization (before the first poll interval), or shorten Stacker's fallback below the shortest LP-Maker TTL (12m)

Vulture-Andrew structurally undercut: LP-Maker 0.22–0.35% vs Vulture's 1% hard floor

LP-Maker compressed spreads from 1.31% (last run) to 0.22–0.35% this cycle, widening the gap to Vulture's fixed 1% floor. All 5 open Vulture sells + 5 buys are now structurally uncompetitive; w121–w124 found 0 takeable/mirrorable edges. Vulture cannot self-adapt its floor.

LP-Maker rivals at 0.22–0.35% confirmed w123; Vulture 5 open intents (SSV 24m, ETH 23m left); 0 Vulture-as-taker recent deals; 4 recent Vulture settlements all as maker vs LP-Maker in prior cycles

Evaluate reducing Vulture's 1% spread floor, or add LP-Maker book awareness so Vulture can take LP-Maker's resting asks when they offer better-than-floor rates

mimic-ljuba [object Object] serialization bug unresolved (w100+)

The serialization bug has persisted for multiple cycles without a fix. w101 deal #159 accepted correctly and w102–w104 holding correctly, but degraded object coercion risks misread edge calculations or loop state corruption in future wakes. Not yet causing missed deals, but the risk compounds over time.

Bug referenced in orient context (since w100); confirmed still present across w102–w104 in Step-2 summary; [object Object] appears in edge/intent string context

Locate the missing JSON.stringify() or .toString() call on the intent/edge object being concatenated into a string in mimic-ljuba's loop; likely in the edge comparison or logging path

LP-Maker-Matheus hub healthy: 11/12 book live, clean cluster renewal

w154 Cluster Z renewal (18 TXs: 9 cancels + 9 posts) executed with no lapse gap this cycle, improving on the 9-minute hole at ~18:11 UTC last cycle. sNVDA slot absent due to depleted inventory (w157+), not a bug. 10 of 16 recent deals settled through LP-Maker.

11/12 open book slots live; 10 recent deals; w154 clean; sNVDA 'insufficient inventory' confirmed w157; realized PnL -$3.25 / 122 deals; tokens_5h $61.91

Replenish sNVDA inventory to restore 12/12 book coverage

Provision index-maker + index-taker simultaneously (wallets + CLAUDE.md + wake scripts) — 37 cycles fully dark, entire IndexBasket segment offline

Restore option-writer-matheus primary mission to option posting — current swap-dominant drift starves option-taker and leaves the options market without supply

Fix Stacker-Massimo newMatches() blind-spot: seed seenIntents from live book at watcher init, before first poll — permanently missing short-TTL LP-Maker asks

Fix mimic-ljuba [object Object] serialization bug (unresolved since w100+) before it corrupts an edge calculation and causes a bad accept

Replenish LP-Maker-Matheus sNVDA inventory to restore 12/12 book coverage and unlock the sNVDA ↔ Stacker-Massimo trade path

Same LP-Maker hub structure as last run (10/16 recent deals, 11 open intents); Vulture's structural spread mismatch worsened (LP-Maker now 0.22-0.35% vs Vulture's 1% floor); mimic-ljuba at nextFallbackMin=2 (imminent wake); momentum-nikita pidAlive=false with 20:00 UTC market-close trigger likely al

LP-Maker-Matheus settled 10/16 recent deals and holds 11/21 open book slots — still the entire market's liquidity spine

mimic-ljuba nextFallbackMin=2: wake imminent or just fired; [object Object] serialization bug unresolved from w100

Vulture-Andrew: 5 open intents, all structurally undercut by LP-Maker's 0.22-0.35% spread vs Vulture's 1% floor — 0 takeable edges found wakes w121-w124

Bear-Yosher anchor binary (4m left on book, expiry 2026-06-15 19:07 UTC) expiring now — repost decision imminent to preserve one-resting-anchor invariant

Stacker-Massimo nextFallbackMin=13: imminent wake but newMatches() blind-spot structural miss confirmed again — LP-Maker sNVDA ask already likely expired unfilled

Option-Taker: 3×0x57F8 custom deals in recent list but lifetime=5 same as prior run — pre-existing or new fills unclear; template-lock persists

BTC margin worsened to -1.93% at w231 — did the 3-min-ago wake see any CEX/oracle spread change bringing a binary within arb range, or does the drought continue with HIGH_WATER still advancing on zero fills?

Open book shows a Bear-Yosher custom intent expiring in ~4m (4 USDC / 2.67 USDC · June 15 19:07 UTC) — is this the expected #1788 repost or a new anchor, and has bear-yosher fired a new wake to replace it as it expires?

Confirm 36th consecutive null cycle: armed=false, pidAlive=false, no provisioning signal — any change at all since last run?

Confirm 37th consecutive null cycle: armed=false, pidAlive=false — any change at all since last run, given index-maker remains equally undeployed?

Cluster Z confirmed live at w152; with a 2-min-ago wake and 11 open intents on book — are all clusters quote-fresh with no lapse gap (the 18:11 UTC-type 9-min hole from prior cycle), and has any cluster renewal fired this cycle?

nextFallbackMin=2 means w102 is imminent or just fired — did it find another binary to take (bear-yosher's expiring anchor is the prime candidate), did the [object Object] serialization bug recur, and what is portfolio balance post-deal-#15

pidAlive=false but armed with 461-min fallback; the 20:00 UTC market-close trigger noted in prior summary as ~55 min away should now have elapsed — did it fire and execute, and what is portfolio state / SSV allocation now?

3×0x57F8 custom settlements appear in recent deals but lifetime=5 matches prior run's count — are these pre-existing deals replaying in the window or new fills, and did any wake since w33 find audited Option intents from Option-Writer (stil

The recent deals list includes 'Option-Writer-Matheus ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus [Swap] settled' and an sNVDA bid shows 5m left on book — did LP-Maker take the sNVDA intent, and has option-writer posted any new option (not swap) templates since w6

Last wake 3 min ago with nextFallbackMin=1394 — what did the wake do: did sAAPL exit #1789 settle and resolve the sAAPL position, and what is the current Polymarket custom intent on book (7 USDC / 1.76 USDC, June 19 expiry)?

377 min since last wake, nextFallbackMin=2547 — confirm still correctly armed pointing to Monday 06-16T13:30Z stock open for sMSFT trim, with no unexpected early wakes since w47.

nextFallbackMin=13 means wake imminent — the newMatches() blind-spot caused another structural sNVDA miss this cycle; does the current open book show any sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT ask Stacker could take on this next wake, and has anything changed t

BTC gap to trigger was ~$708 at last summary (spot ~$63,909 vs 64,163 baseline) — has BTC moved in the past 21 min to narrow or widen that gap, and are stocks still fully gated for Sunday close?

LP-Maker compressed to 0.22-0.35% vs Vulture's 1% floor — of the 5 open Vulture intents on book (SSV, ETH, sMSFT, sAAPL, BTC), which if any remain competitive, and did the 16-min-ago wake continue the 0-takeable/0-mirrorable pattern from w1

mimic-ljuba: fix [object Object] status-serialization bug recurring each wake (w100, prior runs) — corrupts display and may mask real binary-take decisions

stacker-massimo: fix newMatches() to surface intents posted after the agent's last wake, not just at reseed — permanent structural miss on short-TTL LP-Maker quotes confirmed multiple cycles

vulture-andrew: reassess 1% spread floor given LP-Maker quotes 0.22-0.35% — either lower the floor or explicitly document structural maker inactivity until book thins

index-maker / index-taker: 36+ null cycles with no self-healing path — escalate provisioning decision; IndexBasket segment is permanently offline

bear-yosher: anchor binary expiring in ~4m — verify next wake fires immediately to repost and maintain the one-resting-anchor invariant before the book goes empty