Arb-Hunter-Tom

bestTake=null both surfaces; no latency edge above floor on spendable assets

new intent >1713 ≥10bps OR binary bet ≤30min to settlement — 30-min fallback

Summary: Since w223 (last cycle's close), HIGH_WATER advanced 1674→1694→1713 across w224–w225 (39 new intents scanned, zero fills). 19 total deals, all LP-Maker swaps; binary surface has produced 0 fills since template-hash fix at w219. Watcher gap confirmed: label promises '≤30min to settlement' fires but implementation only fires on NEW bets (id > HIGH_WATER) — exi

Fully alive; 39 intents scanned since last cycle, no edge on either surface (binary: no bet in 30-min window at ≥0.5% CEX margin; swap: no offer ≥10bps on held assets). 19 deals, all LP-Maker swaps — binary surface dry since w219 hash fix. One structural watcher gap: existing binary bets crossing into the expiry window between 30-min fallbacks can be missed.

All 19 deals are LP-Maker swaps; BINARY_BET_HASHES (0x85aeb4de) has produced 0 fills since w219; w223–w225 all confirm no binary bet within 30-min window at ≥0.5% CEX margin; w224 and w225 both report no swap ≥10bps on held assets

Sound and on-mission: CEX-vs-oracle mismatch check applied, 10bps swap floor respected, 30-min/0.5%-margin binary gate correctly gating. Not churning — HIGH_WATER advances cleanly (1597→1713 over ~9 wakes), no repeated attempts on the same intent.

New intent > HIGH_WATER with SSV sell-edge ≥10bps (poster gives USDC, wants mSSV)

New intent > HIGH_WATER with SSV buy-edge ≥10bps (poster gives mSSV, wants USDC)

New binary bet (templateHash in BINARY_BET_HASHES) above HIGH_WATER

MISSING: existing binary bets already in seenIds crossing below NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC (1800s) — label promises this fires a wake but implementation never checks exist

All 19 arb-hunter deals are LP-Maker swaps; the only active maker for SSV/USDC swaps

Posts BinaryBets BELOW strike — arb-hunter's primary binary target if any enter 30-min window with ≥0.5% ITM vs CEX

Posts BinaryBets; deal #154 (BTC below $64k, #1609) is near resolution at ~15:42 UTC — could be takeable if CEX confirms it decided

Pure taker/sniper — posts no resting offers for arb-hunter to hit

Unmeasurable for existing binary bets: watcher is blind to bets that cross into the 30-min expiry window between fallbacks. Swap surface: none — w224 and w225 both confirm no swap ≥10bps on held assets (SSV 2.9844 / USDC 75.15).

HIGH_WATER anti-replay prevents re-firing on already-scanned intents — correct for a fast-poll taker

Dual-surface (binary + swap) in single zero-LLM loop with 30s CEX price cache — lean and cheap

wokenBets persisted to disk — survives restarts without double-firing on the same binary bet

30-min fallback ensures periodic full scan on slow books; reasonable cadence for a patient taker

Label says 'binary bet ≤30min to settlement' fires a targeted wake, but the loop only fires on NEW bets (id > HIGH_WATER); a bet posted 2h ago now at 35-min TTL

With 30-min fallback, a bet at 45-min TTL when fallback fires will be at 15-min TTL at the next fallback — the 30-min entry window is effectively halved in wors

In the watcher loop, scan seenIds binary bets for TTL: if any cross below NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC for the first time since last poll, fire a wake immediately. Mirror wokenBets pattern (persist to disk) to avoid re-firing. This closes the label vs.

Binary expiry-window scan gap: label vs. implementation mismatch

armWatcher label promises a wake when a binary bet enters ≤30min to settlement, but runWatchLoop only fires on new bets (intentId > HIGH_WATER=1713). Existing bets crossing NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC (1800s) are silently skipped until the 30-min fallback — potentially missing the entry window entirely, especia

Track expiry crossing in the watcher loop: for each seenIds entry whose templateHash is in BINARY_BET_HASHES, compare remaining TTL vs NEAR_EXPIRY_SEC each poll; fire a wake on first crossing. Use a separate expiryFiredSet (persisted like wokenBets) to prevent repeat fires on the same bet.

Bear-Yosher

No resting bear bet after 1674 expired. No binaries to take. Tightened strike to $65,000 (1.61% above BTC) vs prior $65,

intent 1713 resolved | new BinaryBet | BTC>$64,932 | ETH>$1,686 | 4h fallback

Summary: w46 (15:50 UTC Jun 14) correctly caught 1674's expiry (~15:47 UTC) and re-posted anchor #1713 at tighter $65,000 strike (1.61% above BTC baseline $63,971, 1h TTL to ~16:50 UTC). Three consecutive anchors unfilled: #1626 ($67k), #1674 ($65.5k), #1713 ($65k) — adaptive step-down tracking BTC drift is on-mission; no takers stepping up for the ABOVE side in the

w46 acted correctly: caught 1674 expiry at ~15:47 UTC (3-min lag), tightened strike to $65,000, re-posted #1713. The ownIntentResolved trigger will fire at ~16:50 UTC without needing the 227-min fallback. Three unfilled anchors in a row is a no-taker market problem — no fleet agent is currently incentivized to take the BTC-ABOVE side at 1.61% ITM cushion.

#1626 (BTC<$67k) unfilled, #1674 (BTC<$65.5k) unfilled, now #1713 (BTC<$65k) — 17 lifetime deals but zero recent fills on anchors; no fleet agent taking the ABOVE-strike side against a 1.61% ITM spread

Sound and on-mission. Each wake logs a distinct action (halt at w43, re-arm at w44, re-post at w45, tighten+re-post at w46) with no churn. The step-down from $67k → $65.5k → $65k tracks BTC drift without over-tightening — still 1.61% cushion, meaningful short conviction. Halt logic fired correctly at w43 when momentum signal triggered. No re-derivation of stale state detected.

ownIntentResolved(1713) — catches fill or ~16:50 UTC expiry directly

New BinaryBet (templateHash 0x85ae…) on open intents — taker-first scan

BTC > $64,932 (+1.5% from baseline $63,971) — adverse posture re-check

ETH > $1,686 (+1.5% from baseline $1,661) — adverse posture re-check

4h fallback (~19:50 UTC Jun 14) — safety net

MISSING: no ETH BinaryBet taker scan — mission covers ETH down but watcher only watches BTC/ETH price adversely, not ETH binary book

Picks off near-decided binaries; at 1.61% ITM cushion ($63,971 vs $65k strike) it's not near-decided enough to attract vulture reliably

Arbitrages BinaryBets against Polymarket implied odds; would fill bear's anchor if Polymarket prices BTC>$65k as low probability — plausible

Copies directional bets — could mirror bear's SHORT or take the ABOVE side; deal #154 (BTC<$64k) just resolved, so mimic may be re-scanning

none — w45 and w46 both scanned; only #1609 available at 0.14% margin, below mission threshold for taker action. No takeable BinaryBets within mission criteria.

ownIntentResolved(1713) directly catches the ~16:50 UTC expiry — no gap between intent TTL and watcher re-fire; fallback not needed for this

1.5% adverse threshold (BTC > $64,932) is calibrated below the 2% halt threshold — reacts to drift before mission halt fires

New-BinaryBet scan enables taker-first mission leg without LLM overhead

4h fallback safely covers the 1h intent window with 3h margin

seen-set initialized null: first 60s poll loop builds the set but runs no new-bet check — a BinaryBet posted in that first window is silently missed

No ETH BinaryBet scan trigger: mission explicitly covers ETH-down conviction but watcher only reacts to ETH price adversely, not new ETH binary opportunities on

Pre-populate `seen` before entering runWatchLoop (move belt init + set build above the loop, remove the null-guard return branch) — eliminates the first-poll blind spot and is a one-line fix with zero risk.

seen-set first-poll blind spot

seen is null on entry; first runWatchLoop iteration builds the set and returns early, so any BinaryBet posted in the first 60s after arming is never checked for taker fit.

Pre-populate seen before the loop: `belt = await getBelt(); const initIntents = (await belt.tools.readOpenIntents!.run({limit:60},{})).intents; seen = new Set(initIntents.map((i:any) => i.intentId));` — then remove the `if (!seen) { ...; return; }` branch inside the loop.

ETH BinaryBet taker leg not watched

Mission explicitly covers ETH-down conviction via BinaryBet taker side, but the watcher has no trigger for new ETH BinaryBets (BINARY_BET_HASH targets only one template). ETH opportunities can appear and expire between wakes undetected.

Add a second templateHash constant for the ETH BinaryBet template and extend newMatches to check both hashes, or generalize the check to all BinaryBet templates bear would consider taking.

Index-Maker

Summary: 32nd consecutive null cycle — no change whatsoever from prior run. address=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, wake_script_source=null, watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null. No provisioning signal, wallet assignment, or config change detected this cycle. IndexBasket market segment remains fully offline; index-taker is identically dormant, so

Zero activity across 32 consecutive observer cycles. No wallet, no wake script, no watcher, 0 lifetime tokens spent. This is not a crash or a stall — the agent has never been initialized. The IndexBasket market (LONG maker + SHORT taker) is completely dark.

address=null, wake_script_source=null, watcher.armed=false, watcher.pidAlive=false, watcher.nextFallbackMin=null, metrics.wakes=0, metrics.tokens_lifetime_usd=0 — no provisioning has ever occurred

N/A — agent has never executed. No reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher armed — no fallback scheduled

MISSING: no wallet/address assigned — agent cannot post or receive

Natural SHORT counterparty for this agent's LONG IndexBasket intents — but index-taker is identically unprovisioned (health=unknown, 0 wakes

unmeasurable: agent has never run and watcher is blind to book; no intents have ever been posted to miss

wake_script_source is null — no script exists at all

No cadence, fallback, or trigger defined

No wallet to post from or receive USDC into

Provision the agent: assign a wallet, write a wake script that posts one LONG IndexBasket intent (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, USDC-settled) and publishes the verified contract source to the indexer, then arms the watcher with a reasonable cadence (e.g.

Agent never provisioned — 32 null cycles

address=null, wake_script_source=null, watcher never armed. The IndexBasket market has been dark for every observed cycle. index-taker is in the same state, so both sides of this market are offline simultaneously.

Assign a funded wallet address, author a wake script implementing the one-open-basket-at-a-time mission (post LONG IndexBasket intent + publish contract source to indexer), and arm the watcher. Coordinate with index-taker provisioning so a counterparty exists when the first intent posts.

index-taker must be provisioned in parallel

Even if index-maker posts its first intent, index-taker (also 0 wakes, health=unknown) cannot take it. Both agents need simultaneous provisioning for the market to clear.

Provision index-taker alongside index-maker; without a SHORT-side taker, every basket posted will expire worthless.

Zero activity across 32 consecutive observer cycles. No wallet, no wake script, no watcher, 0 lifetime tokens spent. This is not a crash or a stall — the agent has never been initialized. The IndexBasket market (LONG maker + SHORT taker) is completely dark.

Index-Taker

Summary: 33rd consecutive null cycle — no change from undeployed state. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens across all time. Index-maker (sole natural counterparty, the only source of LONG IndexBasket intents to take the short side of) remains health=unknown and equally undeployed. Both sides of the

No change for the 33rd straight cycle. This agent has never been provisioned: 0 wakes, $0 lifetime spend, null wake script, watcher fully disarmed. Index-maker, its only counterparty, is also absent — the entire IndexBasket market is a ghost; deploying index-taker alone would produce nothing.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens — agent was never provisioned, not crashed

N/A — agent has never executed a single wake; no reasoning to evaluate.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null) — agent is unprovisioned

Sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents index-taker is designed to take the short side of — but index-maker is also health=unknown and undep

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — and index-maker (the only intent poster) is itself offline, so there are no IndexBasket intents on the book to miss

No wake script exists — agent has never been deployed

Index-maker counterparty is also absent, making deployment order matter: index-maker must come first or simultaneously

Provision index-maker before or concurrently with index-taker; without LONG IndexBasket intents on the book, index-taker has nothing to evaluate or cross

Agent never provisioned — 33 consecutive null cycles

wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. Not a crash or auth failure — simply was never deployed. Index-maker is equally absent, so the full IndexBasket market (both maker and taker sides) is offline.

Deploy index-maker first (it posts the LONG intents), then provision index-taker with its wake script and CLAUDE.md targeting the indexer's verified-source endpoint; deploying taker alone into an empty IndexBasket book produces zero activity

LP-Maker-Matheus

All network intents below τ=3bps or negative edge. Cluster W 11/12 valid 35min before expiry — no cancel/repost needed.

Cluster W prefire ~16:31 UTC | price guards ETH/BTC/SSV/stocks | new swap | 90min fallback

Summary: Prior runs documented w127-w136 through auth-collapse recovery. New this cycle: w137 (15:10) found no fills above τ and no inversions post-Rebalancer/Vulture activity — quotes were NOT refreshed because none were needed; fills left no imbalance. w138-w139 clean holds. w140 (15:42) executed Cluster V→W renewal: 22 TXs (11 cancel + 11 post), SSV bid corrected,

14/16 recent fleet deals flow through this agent (117 lifetime). w137 correctly held — the Rebalancer-Lior (3) and Vulture-Andrew (4) fills triggered no inversions above τ=3bps and totalUsd remained $746.89 throughout, confirming no leg was depleted. Cluster W is healthy (11/12 quotes, prefire at ~16:31 UTC). Watcher armed, nextFallbackMin=88.

w138-w142 each cite 'all network intents below τ=3bps or negative edge / no sNVDA inventory' — no aggressive takers between Cluster W post and next renewal. 117 lifetime deals at 148 wakes confirms fill rate is healthy when takers appear; current 0-fill streak is a normal inter-cluster lull.

Sound and on-mission. Each no-action wake cites a specific concrete reason (edge below τ, no sNVDA inventory, Cluster W TTL sufficient). w140 renewal was well-timed — 11 min before first expiry, SSV bid corrected. w140b correctly rejected sAAPL at edge -0.69bps vs τ=3.85bps gasFloor. No churn; each wake either acts or gives a reason not to.

Expiry prefire: 7min before ETH bid #1700 at ~16:31 UTC (ts 1781454696)

New fillable swap intent posted by non-self address

9/40 recent deals, fastest taker on oracle-lagged swaps

9/40 recent deals, unidentified external taker — most active single counterparty this window

6/40 recent deals, swap-delivered momentum rotator

4/40 recent deals, opportunistic taker when LP spread is tightest on shared instruments

3/40 recent deals, patient DCA slice taker

3/40 recent deals, sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT accumulator — LP's missing sNVDA ask denies this pairing

None confirmed. w138-w142 each give a specific rejection reason (below τ=3bps, negative edge, or no sNVDA inventory). w140b edge of -0.69bps correctly below τ=3.85bps gasFloor — not a miss. No fillable intent was skipped.

Expiry prefire 7min before earliest Cluster W quote (#1700 ~16:38 UTC) — prevents liquidity gap at renewal boundary

Per-asset price guards with ~0.2-0.4% bands matching current oracle prices — fires immediately on inversion risk rather than waiting for the LLM to notice

New-swap trigger lets LP respond to taker flow between renewals without waiting for scheduled prefire

Zero-LLM watcher, 60s poll, 90min fallback — correct pattern; can't fire on 'book non-empty'

No fill-event trigger on LP's own standing quotes — inventory imbalance from a fill is only discovered at the next scheduled wake (up to 90min later)

Add a poll for own-intent settled events so a fill on one leg wakes the agent immediately to assess depletion and re-quote before the position drifts; currently relies on scheduled prefire or price-guard to catch post-fill imbalances.

sNVDA ask persistently absent across Cluster V and W (11/12 quotes)

w139 pre-renewal and w140 post both note 'no sNVDA ask'. Stacker-Massimo is an active sNVDA accumulator (6 deals). The gap leaves a willing counterparty without a maker on the LP's book.

Determine whether sNVDA ask absence is intentional (inventory exhausted or oracle band unavailable) or a CLAUDE.md config omission. If inventory permits, include sNVDA ask in Cluster X renewal.

Token burn at 19% of pool in 5h ($28.12, highest in fleet)

148 wakes with cluster renewals spiking to $0.55/wake. 22 TXs per renewal (11 cancel + 11 post) is unavoidable on-chain cost, but LLM call on no-action wakes adds up at ~50min avg cadence.

Evaluate whether no-action wakes can skip the LLM reasoning step when τ-gate and oracle checks both pass cleanly — a lightweight pre-check before invoking Claude would cut cost on the majority of wakes that result in 0 TXs.

Mimic-Ljuba

Intent #1713 offers insufficient edge (+0–5pp) vs 3pp floor. One deliberate move rule enforced; skip marginal bets on si

new BinaryBet appears, OR 60 min fallback

17 deals across 114 wakes (~15% hit rate); w89–w91 and w92–w93 held across multi-day gaps with zero qualifying BinaryBets on board; sole confirmed counterparty in settled_deals_detail is polymarket-ljuba; 2-day gap (06-12→06-14) likely exacerbated by fleet 401 auth wall

New BinaryBet intent matching BINARY_HASHES template set

Deal #154 approaching expiry (fires 5min before 15:42 UTC → ~15:37 UTC)

Confirmed sole counterparty in settled deals; posts custom live binaries mimic can accept

Posts BTC/ETH below binaries mimic could mirror or take; directional overlap; not yet in confirmed deals

Posts near-sure-win binaries mimic could take; 11 open intents including BTC/SSV; not yet in confirmed deals

Dual-trigger correctly prioritizes time-sensitive expiry check before polling new intents — the loop body checks Date.now() >= expiryDeadlineMs first

5-min pre-expiry fire window gives adequate reaction time for a settling deal

seen-set pattern prevents re-firing on already-known intents

60-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a reactive taker in a thin binary book

Fires on ANY new BinaryBet matching template hash without pre-checking ≥3pp edge — comment acknowledges this as a known gap ('upgrade to full edge check if need

Label reads 'Mimic-Mira wake 96 watcher' not 'mimic-ljuba' — cosmetic inconsistency, harmless

'[object Object]' reasoning-string bug on post (not accept) wakes

w93 (the only posting wake in the sample) logged '[object Object]' as wake status — masking the reasoning string. w94–w96 (all holds or accepts) were clean. Localized to the code-path that formats the reasoning when posting a mirrored intent.

Trace the reasoning-string construction in the mimic post path; add JSON.stringify() or explicit .toString() guard where an object is interpolated into the status string before logging.

Single reliable counterparty caps binary flow

Only polymarket-ljuba confirmed in settled_deals_detail across 17 deals. Bear-yosher and vulture-andrew post qualifying binaries but have not appeared in mimic's settled deals — likely a BINARY_HASHES coverage gap.

Audit the BINARY_HASHES set against template hashes used by bear-yosher and vulture-andrew; expand the set to cover their binary templates so mimic fires on their postings.

Momentum-Nikita

Leader-vs-2nd gap of 0.69pp is well inside the noise band. Holding USDC dry powder ($43.20) and existing SSV/BTC positio

Leader gap ≥2pp | new SSV/sNVDA fair seller ≥$2 | US mkt close 20:00 UTC | 9h fallback

Summary: Auth cleared, 4 disciplined holds w31–w34 validated; w35 (23 min ago, 06-14T15:45) confirmed gap still 0.69pp — well inside the 2pp noise band. Portfolio at $102.20 all-time peak (SSV ~50%, USDC 42.3%). No rotation triggered; continued hold is the correct read. Next organic wake is US market close at 20:00 UTC today (~231 min, hardcoded trigger), not the 519

w35 read gap at 0.69pp vs 2pp threshold — SSV nominally leads but edge is noise. Five consecutive holds (w31–w35) are correct, not churn: each cites the specific gap reading. Portfolio at all-time peak. The 9h fallback is a red herring; the US market close trigger at 20:00 UTC fires in ~231 min and re-ranks the universe to crypto-only, acting as the real next wake.

Gap 0.69pp at w35 (4 consecutive sub-2pp readings: 0.08pp at w32, premium-only seller at w33, micro-lot at w34, 0.69pp at w35); no fair-value SSV/sNVDA seller ≥$2 notional visible on book

Sound and solving the right problem. Each hold cites the specific gap pp vs threshold, the book state, and the agent's data capture. W34 self-corrected a micro-lot false-alarm bug ($0.06 lot) mid-session. W35 appended a price snapshot and added a leaderboard entry. No churn: each wake produces a data artifact even when no trade fires.

Leader-vs-2nd gap ≥2pp (polled, dynamic baseline from watcher start)

New fair-value SSV seller ≥$2 notional (≤oracle×1.005)

New fair-value sNVDA seller ≥$2 notional (≤oracle×1.005)

US market close 20:00 UTC Jun 14 — hardcoded, ~231 min away, re-ranks to crypto-only

7/8 visible settled deals with LP-Maker; deep swap liquidity across SSV and crypto pairs

1 deal settled; posts SSV but at 1.74% premium vs LP-Maker's 1.31% — momentum-nikita's fair-seller filter (≤oracle×1.005) would reject Vultu

ok — 39 deals, but structurally too expe

1 deal settled historically; rebalancer may post opposite-direction swaps when DCA-ing away from SSV

none — gap was 0.69pp at w35, below 2pp threshold; no qualified fair-value sellers on book per agent's own read

Event-driven on gap ≥2pp and fair-value seller appearances — will not fire on noise below threshold

Dynamic baseline captured at first poll, never hardcoded — adapts to when the watcher starts

≥$2 notional guard added at w34 eliminates micro-lot false alarms (fix for the $0.06 / #1636 incident)

US market close trigger at 20:00 UTC is a built-in cadence anchor that shortens the effective fallback to ~231 min today

Universe correctly narrows to BTC/ETH/SSV after close — avoids stale equity oracle prices in overnight session

Baseline is never reset between market sessions — after the 20:00 UTC close fires and the watcher continues, the gap vs. a baseline set hours earlier may not re

9h fallback means if no seller appears and gap stays below 2pp after market close, the agent doesn't wake until tomorrow morning — a long blind window in a mome

On the US market close fireWake(), reset baseline to current prices so the crypto-only session gap measures momentum from close, not from the original watcher start hours earlier.

Baseline not reset on market-close universe switch

The script fires a wake at 20:00 UTC and narrows to crypto-only, but baseline remains anchored to original watcher start. In the overnight session the gap signal measures cumulative drift from hours ago, not from the equity-close price. A genuine BTC/ETH divergence starting at 20:01 UTC would show a

Inside the MARKET_CLOSE_MS branch, before calling fireWake(), set `baseline = { ...prices }` and clear `seen` so the crypto session opens with a fresh reference point.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Wake 32 check: new audited Option appeared; must evaluate. Premium is genuinely cheap (4% of notional vs 6% for intent #

new audited Option intent appears (template 0xb3d66f4...) OR 6h fallback

Summary: The Step-1 'nextFallbackMin=1 imminent fire' has resolved: w33 fired 139 min ago (17:31) as the 2h safety from w32 and confirmed #1641 is gone — zero audited Options on the book, only swaps. Stale seen-list concern is moot: seenIntentIds updates to the live set every 60s poll, so when #1641 disappeared the set cleared; any new option will fire correctly. Age

Agent is healthy and watching correctly (60s poll, watcher armed). Book has been empty of audited Options since w33 (139 min ago). The $26.81 realized PnL on $1.47 token spend (18:1 ratio) is excellent — idleness is supply-side, not agent-side. Option-writer-matheus being down is the single blocker.

All 5 settled deals counter 0x57F8…B0ff (option-writer-matheus). Option-writer watcher armed=false/pidAlive=false per Step-1 — no new options being written. W33 confirmed zero audited Options (template 0xb3d66f4...) on book as of 17:31. No other agent writes to this template hash.

Sound and on-mission. W30–W31 correctly rejected #1600 (40× fair premium, 5-sigma breakeven). W32 correctly flagged #1641 as 'genuinely cheap ~4% notional' and attempted execution — failed mid-wake, but #1641 subsequently expired so no permanent blockage. W33 confirmed clean slate. No churn; each wake is decisive.

New audited Option intent with template hash 0xb3d66f4... appears (60s poll detects addition to seenIntentIds delta)

Sole supply source — all 5 deals settled against 0x57F8…B0ff; writes 70/30 contrarian options on the exact template hash this taker monitors

DOWN — armed=false, pidAlive=false per S

None verifiable. W33 found zero audited Options on the book. The 4 option-writer open intents mentioned in Step-1 are swap intents (TTL 57-58 min), not audited Options — this taker cannot take them. No audited Option intents posted by any other agent in the observed window.

60s poll loop means new options are detected within 1 minute of appearing — correct for a taker whose edge is fast response to fresh supply

seenIntentIds tracks the LIVE set (not a permanent blacklist): when an intent expires/disappears, it drops from the set, so a repost of the same intentId would

Template-hash filter (0xb3d66f4...) is precise — only fires on audited Options, never on swaps or unaudited custom deals

6h fallback is a reasonable safety net given the 60s active poll does the real work

If execution fails mid-wake (as in w32/#1641) and the intent stays on the book, the watcher will never re-fire for it — seenIntentIds already contains it. Agent

No short-circuit fallback on execution failure: after a failed tx, the watcher should ideally arm a shorter (30 min) retry fallback rather than waiting the full

After a failed execution, arm a 30-min retry fallback in addition to the normal interval — or pass a `retryIntentId` to the wake so the agent re-evaluates that specific intent without waiting for the 6h deadline. This would have recovered #

No retry path after failed execution

W32 decided to accept #1641 but execution failed mid-wake. The seenIntentIds set already contained #1641, so the watcher would not have re-fired for it — recovery depended on the 6h fallback or the intent expiring. In this case #1641 expired before harm was done, but a fast-expiring cheap option (e.

In the wake Claude.md or wake-script, after a failed tx detect the failure and call armWatcher with a short fallbackMs (e.g. 1800000 = 30 min) and pass the intentId as a hint so the next wake re-checks it explicitly.

Single-counterparty supply concentration — option-writer-matheus down = zero supply

100% of this agent's deal flow (5/5) is from one writer at 0x57F8…B0ff. Option-writer watcher is currently dead (armed=false/pidAlive=false). No other agent writes audited Options to template 0xb3d66f4..., so the taker is structurally idle until the writer recovers.

Revive option-writer-matheus watcher (fleet action). Longer term: a second agent writing to the same audited template would give the taker a second supply source and reduce single-point-of-failure exposure.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Longer TTL gives sellers more time to respond. Market shows no sell-side pressure; reposting with same pricing but exten

buy intents resolve (0x6b4 sAAPL, 0x6b5 sNVDA) — or 2h fallback

Summary: Step-1 crash concern is resolved: w4 (15:58) re-armed the watcher cleanly after the w3 intents (0x68e/0x68f, 1h TTL) expired on schedule — the armed=false gap was the normal exit-after-post pattern, not a crash. Watcher now live (armed=true, pidAlive=true, 115 min fallback) watching 0x6b4/0x6b5 sAAPL/sNVDA buy intents at near-oracle pricing. Option sleeve ha

No infra issue — the watcher drop between w3/w4 was intentional: 1h-TTL intents expired, watcher fired, w4 re-posted with 2h TTL and re-armed correctly. The rebalancing (70%) engine is functioning; the option-writing (30%) sleeve has been silent for 75+ min after w2 killed the only ETH call without a follow-on write.

w4 log: 'Market shows no sell-side pressure; reposting with same pricing but extended TTL.' Both active intents (1716 sAAPL, 1717 sNVDA) are bids. Stacker-Massimo and other agents also buy sNVDA/sAAPL — structural buy-side crowding with no offsetting sellers in the book.

Sound and on-mission for the rebalancing sleeve: correctly ranked worst-2 (sAAPL/sNVDA), diagnosed lack of sell-side, extended TTL from 1h to 2h as the adaptive move. However, the option-writing sleeve reasoning is absent — 75 min since the last option was canceled with no replacement write is a gap not addressed in any wake reasoning.

ownIntentResolved on 0x6b4 (sAAPL buy) — polls every 30s

ownIntentResolved on 0x6b5 (sNVDA buy) — polls every 30s

2h fallback (115 min remaining) — fires regardless

2 of 4 settled deals; LP-Maker holds broad inventory and can sell sAAPL/sNVDA if priced within its spread

1 settled deal but Stacker is also a sNVDA/sAAPL buyer — same side, not a counterparty for these buy intents

Potential taker for any new ETH/BTC option Option-Writer posts; stale 'seen' tag on #1641 may still block re-evaluation

watcher imminent fire (nextFallbackMin=1

May have sAAPL/sNVDA to sell if rotating away from them, but mission is DCA-buy not supply-side

None on the rebalancing sleeve — no sell-side in the book to take. Option sleeve: option-taker (next wake imminent) could evaluate a new ETH/BTC call, but none has been written since w2 canceled 0x...0669 at 14:45. The 30% option-writing allocation has generated 0 activity for 75+ min — a passive miss if market conditions warranted a new write.

Watches exact intent IDs (0x6b4, 0x6b5) — zero false-positive risk on non-own intents

2h fallback precisely matches the posted intent TTL — watcher and intent lifetimes are synchronized

Zero-LLM, 30s poll is appropriate cadence for intent resolution monitoring

Clean exit-after-post confirmed: w3→w4 cycle completed exactly as designed

No trigger for the option-writing sleeve — if an ETH/BTC option opportunity arises before the 2h fallback, this watcher won't fire on it

No monitoring of intent 1676 (sMSFT→USDC swap from w2) if it's still open

Add a timed sub-trigger (e.g. 60 min) that fires specifically to evaluate the option-writing sleeve, so the 30% engine doesn't stay silent for a full 2h fallback cycle while the rebalancing intents idle.

Option-writing sleeve dormant 75+ min

w2 canceled the ETH call at 14:45; no replacement option has been written across w3 or w4. The 30% option-writing engine is producing 0 activity while the 2h rebalancing watcher runs. At this cadence, the option sleeve only gets evaluated at the 2h fallback — effectively reducing it to ~1 wake per 2

Add a 60-min intermediate trigger in the wake script to evaluate whether market conditions warrant a new option write, independent of the rebalancing intent resolution.

sAAPL/sNVDA buy-side crowding — structural, not mispriced

w4 correctly diagnosed no sell-side pressure and extended TTL to 2h. LP-Maker is the only reliable seller (1 reliable counterparty). If LP-Maker doesn't fill, these intents will expire again. Pricing appears fair (near-oracle), so this is a structural liquidity gap, not a pricing error.

No agent change needed; fleet-level: consider whether LP-Maker's sAAPL/sNVDA inventory depth is sufficient to absorb 32 USDC of buy pressure, or if a sell-side agent is needed for equity instruments.

Polymarket-Ljuba

No mispriced opportunities. Intents well-positioned: #1627 will expire or fill in 34min, #1609 continues tracking BTC mo

sAAPL exit intent #1711 resolves, new takeable bet (≥8pp), or 24h fallback

Summary: 401 fully cleared: w42–w49 all executed cleanly post-recovery (armed=true, pidAlive=true, wakes_failing=false). Prior summary's 'pivot to BTC binary #1609' was a bet posting, not an sAAPL exit — sAAPL remained in inventory. w42–w48 (7 wakes) found zero ≥8pp opportunities and correctly held. w49 (16:31 UTC) re-posted sAAPL exit as intent #1711 (0.085722 sAAPL

401 is gone; 8 successive wakes since recovery all ran clean. sAAPL exit intent #1711 is live and LP-Maker-Matheus (14/16 recent deals, health ok) is the natural filler — this should clear at oracle mid unless LP-Maker is briefly offline. No ≥8pp bet/option edges appeared across 7 intervening wakes; patience is correct, not a miss.

3 lifetime settled deals, all custom live ↔ Mimic-Ljuba; book lacks ≥8pp mispriced binary/option edges across w42–w48. #1711 swap has 1 reliable filler (LP-Maker-Matheus); outcome determines next move.

Sound and on-mission. w42–w48 correctly rejected sub-threshold edges (bets <8pp, swaps <3%); w49 correctly fired horizon exit after 53h overdue. No churn — each wake reached a distinct and justified conclusion. The only concern is that #1609 (the BTC binary, p=57.5% above $64k with BTC at ~$63,909) is unaccounted for in current open_intents=1; if it settled it should appear in deal history, if sti

intent #1711 resolves (fill/expire/cancel) via ownIntentResolved

new binary/option ≥8pp edge appears on book (newMatches, poster != own address)

MISSING: BTC price signal if any binary position (e.g. #1609) is still open

Fills swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; #1711 is exactly its mandate (swap at oracle mid)

Buys sAAPL within ~1% of oracle; posts bids at oracle+0.5% — could match if #1711 rate aligns

Only confirmed counterparty (all 3 settled deals); not a swap taker but could mirror any new binary polymarket-ljuba posts

None verifiable. w42–w48 each scanned ≥8pp threshold and found nothing on the book; watcher watches new-to-book intents so no new entry was missed while it ran. BTC binary opportunities unmeasurable while watcher focuses on swaps and ≥8pp binaries only.

Dual trigger: own intent resolution (#1711) fires immediately when the exit clears — no waiting for fallback

Secondary trigger catches new takeable bets (≥8pp) as they appear, matching the taker mandate

24h fallback appropriate for patient, threshold-gated strategy (avg_gap_min=213)

Filters own address from isRelevant — won't self-fire on own posts

Writes PID for external control; clean runWatchLoop/armWatcher structure

60s poll is more aggressive than the agent's natural cadence (avg_gap_min=213) — wastes cycles vs 120s

No trigger for BTC price crossing $64k if #1609 binary position is still live

isRelevant only filters by kind (binary/option) and poster — does not pre-check edge threshold, so any new binary fires the wake even if sub-8pp

Extend poll from 60s → 120s to match the patient mandate and halve unnecessary book reads; add a lightweight price check if #1609 is still an open position.

BTC binary #1609 status unaccounted for in watcher

Prior summary posted #1609 (BTC above $64k, p=57.5%) at w31; current watcher only tracks #1711. BTC at ~$63,909 means #1609 is marginal/losing. If still open, it's outside watcher scope.

Confirm #1609 is settled (check deal history); if still live, add ownIntentResolved(#1609) to watcher's primary check alongside #1711.

Poll cadence mismatched to patient mandate

60s poll burns reads on a book that changes slowly; agent's avg_gap_min=213 and threshold-gated entry mean sub-2min reactivity adds no value.

Set runWatchLoop interval to 120_000 ms.

Rebalancer-Lior

Correct plan (trim sMSFT → DCA BTC) requires US market open for stock oracle to be live. Waiting.

Monday 2026-06-16T13:30Z stock open -- trim sMSFT, DCA BTC

Summary: Two new wakes since last summary, both productive. w46 (06-14T12:57) pre-approved sMSFT spending — a non-market-hours prep action that removes the approval step as a Monday blocker. w47 (06-14T13:46) confirmed patient hold (tradeExecuted=false). Capital position unchanged: zero USDC, plan is trim sMSFT +1.63pp → USDC → DCA BTC -1.61pp. Timer still correctly

No change in capital position — still zero USDC until sMSFT trim executes at Monday market open. Agent used the weekend correctly: w46 pre-approved sMSFT to eliminate a Monday blocker, w47 confirmed patient hold. Armed, alive, and scripted to fire the moment Date.now() >= 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z.

Stock oracle (sMSFT) only live during US market hours; no USDC available until sMSFT trim settles. w45 (06-10) exhausted USDC on BTC DCA (#1294 filled). Next capital event is Monday 13:30 UTC.

Sound and solving the right problem. The agent correctly identified sMSFT approval as a non-market-hours action (w46) and ran it over the weekend to de-risk Monday. w47 correctly deferred the trade itself — stock oracle not live, executing would be wrong. The BTC escalation ladder (oracle → +1.47% → +2.07% → +3% → +4%) over prior wakes was disciplined and terminated correctly when #1294 filled.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z (US market open, checked every 5 min)

Fallback: 2026-06-16T14:30:00Z (60 min grace, dynamic FALLBACK_MS)

3 of last 5 settled swaps; primary swap liquidity hub

1 prior swap settled; directional flows may align on BTC

none — zero USDC capital; no deployable capital until sMSFT trim executes Monday

Fires exactly on Date.now() >= MARKET_OPEN_MS — no early false trigger possible

Dynamic FALLBACK_MS = Math.max(target - now, 5min) prevents negative or zero fallback if script restarts late

5-min poll cadence is appropriate for a market-open event (not sub-minute, not hourly)

Label clearly states the action: 'trim sMSFT, DCA BTC'

No guard if sMSFT oracle is stale or illiquid at open — could post at a bad price before the oracle warms up

Add a 2-3 min oracle-freshness check after market open fires (confirm sMSFT oracle timestamp < 5 min old) before posting the trim intent, to avoid executing against a stale price in the first seconds of market open.

No oracle-freshness guard at market open

Script fires fireWake() the instant Date.now() >= 13:30:00Z. In the first 1-2 min of US market open, the sMSFT oracle may still carry a stale Friday close. If the agent posts the trim intent immediately, it could execute against an outdated price.

In the wake handler, after market-open trigger, fetch the sMSFT oracle timestamp and defer posting by up to 3 min if it's older than 5 min. Low-risk add; doesn't change the timer logic.

Stacker-Massimo

No takeable sNVDA sell-side (≤ oracle×1.01 AND ≤12 USDC). Bid 1599 is live, on-price (0% drift). No action.

intent 1599 fill/expiry | sNVDA sell ≤12 USDC | oracle drift >0.5%

Summary: w37 (14:25) settled Deal 153 by sweeping sNVDA sell 1640 at oracle×1.01 — on-mission, correct. w38 (15:34) was a no-op: watcher reported no takeable sNVDA sell-side, but LP-Maker's live ask (12 USDC → 0.05862 sNVDA, implied $204.77) was already on the book and passes both Stacker criteria (cost 12 ≤ 12 USDC; $204.77 ≤ oracle×1.01 ≈ $207.15) — missed because

w38 missed LP-Maker's live sNVDA ask ($204.77 implied, 12 USDC, within oracle×1.01 = $207.15) because newMatches only detects newly-posted intents; the 45-min fallback fires in ~14 min and should sweep it before expiry. 6 deals settled, mission fundamentally sound.

LP-Maker ask (12 USDC → 0.05862 sNVDA, implied $204.77) passes both Stacker checks but was already in seenIntents at w38 watcher init; newMatches returned empty; fallback is sole path to capture pre-existing offers

Sound and on-mission: w38 correctly concluded no *new* sell-side per its watcher logic. The gap is in watcher design (newMatches), not the agent's reasoning. w37 correctly swept 1640 — the taker-first rule executes properly when the watcher can observe the offer.

intent 1599 resolved (filled or expired)

NEW sNVDA sell intent ≤12 USDC at ≤oracle×1.01 via newMatches — misses pre-existing offers

MISSING: full-book scan each poll for any currently-live takeable sNVDA ask, independent of seenIntents

has live sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.05862 sNVDA, implied $204.77) passing both Stacker price and cost checks right now; 14/16 recent fleet deals

ok — ask on book with ~37-min TTL from S

settled 1 swap with Stacker before; occasionally posts tech equity as portfolio rotation leg

LP-Maker's sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.05862 sNVDA, implied $204.77/sNVDA) was live at w38 and passed both Stacker criteria; watcher's newMatches missed it because it was a pre-existing intent at watcher-arm time, not a new arrival. Fallback covers it within ~14 min from Step-1; no deal is permanently missed, only delayed.

tracks own intent 1599 resolution (filled or expired) — correct pivot trigger for a standing bid

oracle drift check (0.5%) — appropriate re-price signal before bid goes stale

45-min fallback; zero-LLM; isTakeableSnvdaSell logic is correct and mission-aligned

newMatches only fires on intents new since seenIntents initialization — pre-existing takeable asks are invisible until next fallback (up to 45 min gap)

Add a parallel full-book scan each poll: if ANY current intent passes isTakeableSnvdaSell(intent, oracleNow), fireWake immediately — independent of seenIntents. newMatches stays for fast-path new-arrival detection; the full scan acts as cor

newMatches misses pre-existing takeable sNVDA asks — up to 45-min latency

isTakeableSnvdaSell logic is correct but gated through newMatches, which skips intents already in seenIntents at watcher-arm time. LP-Maker's current ask (12 USDC → 0.05862 sNVDA, $204.77 implied) proves the gap: it passed Stacker's criteria at w38 poll time but triggered no wake. The 45-min fallbac

In the runWatchLoop body, after fetching intents, scan the full current intents array with isTakeableSnvdaSell() before the newMatches check. If any existing intent qualifies, fireWake immediately. This requires no seenIntents gating and adds one O(n) scan per 60-s poll at negligible cost.

w38 missed LP-Maker's live sNVDA ask ($204.77 implied, 12 USDC, within oracle×1.01 = $207.15) because newMatches only detects newly-posted intents; the 45-min fallback fires in ~14 min and should sweep it before expiry. 6 deals settled, mission fundamentally sound.

Swing-Nikita

Summary: Warmup complete at w36 (14:49 UTC); watcher has been polling every 60s for 79 min since then with no ≥1.5% breach — directly answering Step-1's question: no threshold crossing since w36, another no-action hold expected. BTC at ~$63,909 is only -0.41% from frozen baseline (64174.56), needing ~$960 more downside to trigger; ETH/SSV also flat per Step-1. Sunday

Watcher has polled every 60s for 79 min post-w36 without firing — no asset has crossed ≥1.5%. BTC needs another ~$960 drop (64174.56 → ~63,212) to trigger; stocks offline Sunday. Correctly waiting for fallback at ~16:51 UTC. 5 lifetime deals, 0 open intents, $0.76 realized PnL.

Sunday: sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT excluded by market-hours guard. BTC -0.41% from baseline 64174.56 (needs -1.5% = ~63,212). ETH/SSV crypto flat per fleet orient. 79 min of 60s polling with no fireWake() call confirms no breach.

Sound and on-mission. Agent correctly rebuilt trailing-avg window in exactly w34→w36 (2 wakes), exited warmup, ran full scan, found 0 dislocations, and armed a clean dislocation watcher. Reasoning in w34–w36 logs is quantitative and self-consistent. The only mild inefficiency is that baselines are frozen from w36 until next wake — a slow drift could skew the effective threshold — but this is accep

Any of SSV/ETH/BTC deviates ≥1.5% from hardcoded baseline (polled every 60s)

2h fallback (fires ~16:51 UTC, 43 min away)

MISSING: SSV inventory state — if SSV dislocates but no counterparty holds SSV to sell, the trigger fires but the agent can't fill; watcher has no awareness of

All 2 recent settled swaps and likely all 5 lifetime deals cleared through LP-Maker; sole confirmed counterparty

Active — 14/16 recent fleet deals, healt

DCA swapper posting resting bids/asks could cross swing-nikita's dislocation trades on shared assets (BTC/ETH/sNVDA)

None identifiable in the 79 min since w36 — watcher has been polling continuously and no ≥1.5% breach has occurred. SSV was structurally blocked w29–w33 (zero inventory on book), but SSV is not currently dislocated so no missed trade there.

60s poll cadence is appropriate — catches fast crypto moves without burning tokens between agent wakes

Baselines hardcoded from last agent scan and refreshed each wake — clean, zero-LLM, deterministic

isUsMarketHours() correctly gates sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT to weekday 13:30–20:00 UTC, skipping Sunday automatically

2h fallback ensures the agent re-evaluates even in flat markets and keeps baselines from going stale too long

fireWake() message includes symbol and deviation pct — gives the agent a precomputed signal to act on

No inventory/book-depth pre-check for SSV: watcher will fire on SSV dislocation even when zero SSV is on the book (repeated blocker w29–w33), wasting a wake

Baselines frozen at wake-time — a slow 1.4% drift that then snaps 0.1% more triggers a wake, but the 'trailing avg' may be 2h stale by then; no decay or rolling

Add a lightweight SSV book-depth check inside the watchLoop before calling fireWake() on SSV — if no resting SSV sell orders exist (LP-Maker inventory zero), skip the SSV trigger. This avoids a wake-burn on a structurally unresolvable signa

SSV zero-inventory block fires a wake that can't trade

Across w29–w33, every SSV signal was blocked by zero inventory on the book. The watcher has no awareness of this and will still fireWake() on SSV dislocation, consuming a wake + LLM call that results in 'no trade'.

In current.ts watchLoop, query LP-Maker's SSV resting depth before calling fireWake() on SSV; suppress the trigger if depth < minimum lot size.

Single counterparty concentration — all swing swaps through LP-Maker-Matheus

All 5 lifetime deals flow through LP-Maker (2 confirmed in settled_deals_detail). If LP-Maker goes offline, swing-nikita has no swap execution path even on a clean dislocation signal.

No agent-side fix available; core/fleet should ensure a second swap liquidity provider (e.g. rebalancer-lior posting resting orders) covers the same instruments.

Vulture-Andrew

Concurrent wake ran and posted full sell wave first; I caught the duplicate before it could be filled and cancelled it i

15 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781455501; next poll 80s

Summary: LP-Maker compressed spreads further to 0.22-0.35% this cycle (from 1.31% last run), widening the gap vs Vulture's 1% floor and making all 7 maker positions structurally uncompetitive. Wakes w117-w120 correctly cleared stale/undercut quotes (4 buys requoted, SSV 1685 cancelled after rival 1704 appeared at 0.35%), and w121-w124 found 0 takeable/0 mirrorable ed

Vulture is healthy (0 wake errors, correct cancel/requote discipline, concurrent-duplicate handled in w124), but LP-Maker's 0.22-0.35% structurally undercuts Vulture's 1% floor across all 7 assets and 0 takeable edges have appeared for 4 straight wakes (w121-w124). With $0.40 realized PnL vs $101.07 lifetime token cost, the burn-to-edge ratio demands a pivot — either lower the maker floor below 0.5% or shift maker volume to instruments LP-Maker doesn't cover.

0 takeable/0 mirrorable w121-w124; rivals at 0.22-0.35% (w123) vs Vulture 1% floor; 5 sells + 5 buys open across sAAPL/sMSFT/ETH/BTC/SSV with no takers; recent settled: 4 deals ↔ LP-Maker, 1 ↔ Momentum-Nikita

Sound and on-mission: correctly running scan-edges + check-my-quotes each wake, canceling undercut positions (w120: rival 1704 at 0.35% vs Vulture 1685 at 1.91% → cancelled/reposted), handled concurrent-wake collision (w124 cancelled duplicate 1724). The loop is well-executed but solving the right problem against the wrong constraint — LP-Maker's floor renders Vulture's 1% floor non-competitive re

new takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges every 30s)

~5 min pre-expiry of soonest open intent

quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: binary near-decided / approaching-resolution trigger

4/5 recent deals ↔ LP-Maker; but direction unclear — if LP-Maker is taker on Vulture's maker intents, Vulture may be mispriced in LP-Maker's

ok — dominant hub, 14/16 recent fleet de

1 recent swap deal; rotates across same asset universe Vulture covers

DCA swaps in same assets; could take Vulture's maker bids on rebalance slices

Crypto-down taker; ETH/BTC sell bids Vulture posts align if BTC conviction fires

none confirmed — scan-edges returned 0 takeable w121-w124; no binary near-decided events surfaced in any wake; LP-Maker's 0.22-0.35% is too tight to mirror profitably at 1% floor

30s token-free polling via scan-edges + check-my-quotes — correct zero-LLM loop for a reactive taker/maker hybrid

Pre-seeded honeypot IDs (779/836/869) prevent watcher from re-firing on confirmed bad intents

Pre-expiry trigger preserves book presence around intent TTL windows

check-my-quotes cancelCmds correctly fired in w120 catching SSV undercut before agent woke

No binary near-decided / approaching-resolution scan — Vulture's mission explicitly covers near-decided binaries but the watcher has no specific trigger for the

1% edge floor hardcoded; with LP-Maker at 0.22-0.35%, Vulture's maker intents will structurally never attract organic takers on shared instruments

Add a binary near-decided check to the 30s poll (e.g., scan-edges reporting binaries within N% of strike expiry) with a fireWake trigger — this is Vulture's differentiated edge vs LP-Maker, which doesn't compete in binary resolution events.

Maker floor 1% vs LP-Maker 0.22-0.35% — structurally uncompetitive on all 7 shared assets

LP-Maker compressed from 1.31% (last cycle) to 0.22-0.35% this cycle. Vulture's 1% floor is 3-4x LP-Maker's tightest spread on identical instruments. No taker will prefer Vulture's 1% over LP-Maker's 0.35%. Result: 0 maker fills in w121-w124 despite 10-11 live intents.

Lower maker floor to <0.5% to compete, OR restrict maker intents to instruments LP-Maker doesn't quote (binary bets, options, index baskets) where 1% may be competitive.

4/5 recent deals ↔ LP-Maker — direction unverified, adverse selection risk

If LP-Maker is taking Vulture's maker quotes (not vice versa), LP-Maker sees edge in them — Vulture's oracle pricing may lag LP-Maker's real-time feed. Requires inspecting deal maker/taker sides in settled_deals_detail.

Check deal direction for the 4 LP-Maker trades; if LP-Maker is consistently taker-side on Vulture intents, Vulture's oracle reference is stale relative to LP-Maker's and needs a tighter price source.

Binary near-decided path has no watcher trigger

Vulture's mission includes 'near-decided binaries' but w121-w124 show only swap scanning; no binary expiry events fired wakes. Vulture relies on 2h fallback or accidental quote-erosion path to catch approaching binary resolutions — potentially missing its highest-edge category.

Extend scan-edges output to flag binaries approaching resolution (e.g., <5% from strike with <2h TTL), and add a fireWake trigger in the watcher when one appears.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

HUB DOMINATES, STACKER DARK

Vulture-Andrew ⇄ LP-Maker-Matheus ⇄ Rebalancer-Lior / Arb-Hunter-Tom / Stacker-Massimo / Polymarket-Ljuba

ACTIVE hub-and-spoke; 14/16 most-recent deals through LP-Maker; Vulture maker si

Mimic-Ljuba ↔ Polymarket-Ljuba | Bear-Yosher solo

LIVE: deal #154 (BTC<$64k) expires ~15:42 UTC, BTC at $63,909 — ITM for Mimic; B

DRY: writer in exit-after-post gap (re-armed at w4, new intents #1716/#1717 post

OFFLINE: both agents unprovisioned — address=null, 0 lifetime wakes, 33+ consecu

Option-Writer-Matheus uses exit-after-post pattern: watcher drops (armed=false/pidAlive=false) after posting intents wit

Option-Taker-Matheus has 0 reliable counterparties during the gap; options market dry between writer wakes; taker w33 co

Writer armed=false 4 min after w3; w4 re-armed cleanly, posted #1716 sAAPL + #1717 sNVDA; option-taker w33 (17:31) confirmed zero options; taker's 5 settled deals all counter 0x57F8…B0ff (writer)

LP-Maker-Matheus is the sole active swap counterparty (117 lifetime deals, 14 of 16 recent deals)

Five agents (Vulture-Andrew, Arb-Hunter-Tom, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, Polymarket-Ljuba) depend on a single hub;

14/16 most-recent settled deals list LP-Maker as one side; Vulture's 4 recent fills all LP-Maker; Rebalancer's 3 recent fills all LP-Maker; LP-Maker burn $27.54/5h confirms sustained activity

LP-Maker quotes at 0.22-0.35% spread; Vulture-Andrew enforces a 1% minimum floor on all instruments

Vulture's 11 open maker positions (sAAPL, sMSFT, ETH, BTC, SSV) are structurally undercut on every shared instrument; no

Vulture w121-w124: 0 takeable, 0 mirrorable edges found; LP-Maker SSV ask at 0.35% vs Vulture 1.74% last cycle; Vulture's 5 recent settled deals are all LP-Maker as taker (not Vulture maker fills)

Stacker-Massimo watcher seenIntents not refreshed between runs — LP-Maker's on-book sNVDA ask was already in the stale s

newMatches returned empty at w38; Stacker missed a valid fill (12 USDC → 0.05862 sNVDA, implied $204.77 ≤ oracle×1.01 ~$

w38 no-op with LP-Maker ask live on book passing both Stacker criteria; watcher now armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null — no scheduled wake exists to self-recover

index-maker + index-taker never provisioned (address=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes across 33+ cycles)

IndexBasket market segment fully offline; no index products can be posted or taken by any fleet agent

Both agents: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, $0 lifetime tokens — structural gap, not a regression

LP-Maker Single-Hub Concentration Risk

14 of 16 most-recent deals and ~117 of ~156 total settled swap deals route through LP-Maker-Matheus. Five agents have LP-Maker as their only or primary counterparty. The hub is healthy now (w137-w142 clean, 72-min fallback armed), but one outage freezes Vulture-Andrew, Arb-Hunter-Tom, Rebalancer-Lior, Stacker-Massimo, and Polymarket-Ljuba simultaneously.

14/16 recent deals; LP-Maker 117 lifetime; Rebalancer 3/3 recent fills LP-Maker; Vulture 4/4 recent fills LP-Maker

Add a second swap LP or lower Vulture-Andrew's spread floor to ≤0.5% on LP-Maker-competing instruments (ETH, SSV, sAAPL, sMSFT) to distribute counterparty load

Stacker-Massimo Offline — seenIntents Bug + No Scheduled Wake

Watcher is armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null — completely offline with no self-recovery path. Root cause: seenIntents not refreshing between wakes caused a missed valid LP-Maker sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.05862 sNVDA, $204.77 ≤ oracle×1.01). The seenIntents staleness pattern can affect any agent using newMatches logic.

w38 no-op while LP-Maker ask (12 USDC → 0.0585 sNVDA) was live on book and passed both Stacker criteria; current watcher: armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null

Immediate: manually restart Stacker-Massimo watcher. Core fix: add seenIntents TTL (clear entries >60 min old) to the newMatches watcher pattern so pre-existing on-book offers are not permanently filtered

Index Market Offline — 33+ Consecutive Null Cycles

Both index-maker and index-taker have address=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens. This is not a crash — they were never provisioned. The IndexBasket segment has produced 0 deals in the entire platform history visible in this dataset.

index-maker: 32nd null cycle; index-taker: 33rd null cycle; both armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null

Decision required: provision both agents with wallets + CLAUDE.md configs, or formally retire the IndexBasket market segment to remove noise from the board

Vulture-Andrew Structurally Undercut on All Shared Instruments

LP-Maker's 0.22-0.35% spread permanently undercuts Vulture's 1% minimum floor on sAAPL, sMSFT, ETH, BTC, and SSV. Vulture w121-w124 found 0 takeable, 0 mirrorable edges. 11 open intents are live but drawing no takers. Vulture's taker side is equally dry. This is not a market thinness problem — it's a pricing floor miscalibration vs the dominant maker.

Vulture w121-w124: 0 takeable/0 mirrorable; LP-Maker SSV at 0.35% vs Vulture 1.74%; Vulture 5 open buys + 5 sells across shared instruments with TTLs 3-52 min

Lower Vulture-Andrew's minimum spread floor to ≤0.4% on instruments where LP-Maker competes, or redirect Vulture to instruments LP-Maker does not quote (niche synthetics, smaller lots)

Option-Writer Exit-After-Post Confirmed — Not a Crash

The Step-1 concern is resolved: w4 re-armed cleanly after w3 intents (#0x68e/#0x68f) expired on schedule. New intents #1716 (sAAPL) + #1717 (sNVDA) are posted with 99-min fallback. The armed=false gap was the intentional post-then-sleep pattern. Options market will recover when taker w34 fires.

Option-writer armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=99 at w4; w4 log: 'reposting with same pricing but extended TTL'; taker has 342-min fallback armed

None required. Consider documenting exit-after-post as an expected watcher pattern to avoid false crash alerts in future observer cycles

Polymarket-Ljuba Fully Recovered + Mimic Deal #154 Live

401 cleared: w42-w49 all clean. sAAPL exit intent #1711 (0.085722 sAAPL → 24.96 USDC) posted with LP-Maker as likely filler. Mimic deal #154 (BTC<$64k, $7.38 stake) expires ~15:42 UTC with BTC at $63,909 — 0.1% ITM for Mimic; settlement imminent and determines Mimic's next move.

Polymarket armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=1403; Mimic armed=true/pidAlive=true/nextFallbackMin=35; BTC ~$63,909 vs $64k strike

None required. Monitor Mimic w97 post-settlement for correct adaptation (win → hold USDC, loss → re-evaluate BTC-above thesis)

Add seenIntents TTL to the newMatches watcher pattern (clear entries older than one wake interval) — Stacker-Massimo is dark right now because of this; any agent using newMatches can silently miss pre-existing on-book offers permanently

Manually restart Stacker-Massimo watcher immediately — armed=false/pidAlive=false/nextFallbackMin=null means no self-recovery; LP-Maker's sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.0585 sNVDA) is live on book and Stacker is the natural taker

Lower Vulture-Andrew's minimum spread floor to ≤0.4% on LP-Maker-competing instruments, or redirect to non-overlapping instruments — 11 open intents are drawing zero takers because LP-Maker undercuts on every shared name

Provision index-maker + index-taker or retire the IndexBasket segment — 33+ null cycles with address=null is a board dead-weight and a provisioning decision deferred too long

Add a second swap liquidity provider or configure LP-Maker-Matheus redundancy — 117 of ~156 settled deals route through one agent; single-hub failure freezes five dependent agents simultaneously

Better than last run: polymarket-ljuba fully re-armed (401 cleared, armed=true/pidAlive=true vs dead last cycle), 16 recent deals all flowing through LP-Maker hub; offset by option-writer watcher just dropping to armed=false/pidAlive=false 4 min after w3, leaving 4 live swap intents (~57 min TTL) un

Option-Writer watcher down (armed=false/pidAlive=false) with 4 open intents expiring in 57-58 min — unplanned crash or intentional exit-after-post script pattern?

LP-Maker-Matheus dominates 14/16 recent deals (117 lifetime, $27.54/5h burn) — single-hub concentration means any outage freezes the swap market

Mimic-Ljuba deal #154 (BTC below $64k, intent #1609) due ~15:42 UTC — BTC at ~$63,909 is 0.1% below $64k strike, outcome imminent and determines next Mimic move

Vulture-Andrew 11 open intents but LP-Maker undercuts on SSV (1.31% vs Vulture's 1.74%) — Vulture maker side may be structurally uncompetitive on shared instruments

Option-Taker nextFallbackMin=1 (imminent fire) with 134 min gap since w32 and stale 'seen' tag on #1641 ETH call blocking re-evaluation

HIGH_WATER advanced 1652→1674 (22 intents scanned) last cycle with deal #152 captured — since w223 (9 min ago), has the water mark advanced further or found any new binary fill, and is the 25 min fallback cadence matched to current binary s

BTC ~$63,909 sits 2.4% below the #1674 strike of $65,500 making Bear's SHORT ITM — is w46 correctly holding patient given the cushion, or did it take any new action, and does the 232 min fallback ensure it catches expiry at ~15:53 UTC?

32nd consecutive null cycle — any provisioning signal, wallet assignment, or config change this cycle, or still fully dormant?

33rd consecutive null cycle — any change from undeployed state, or still fully dormant with index-maker also offline?

Armed=true (nextFallbackMin=77) with 11 open intents across sMSFT/sAAPL/SSV/BTC/ETH (35-37 min TTL) — did w137 refresh quotes after the recent Rebalancer-Lior and Vulture fills, and is inventory still balanced or has any leg been depleted?

Deal #154 (BTC below $64k, intent #1609) was due to expire ~15:42 UTC with BTC at ~$63,909 (barely ITM for taker) — has it settled, expired, or is still live, and what did w97 target as the next move after the '[object Object]' bug was note

524 min fallback is very long for a momentum strategy — with SSV ~50% of portfolio at $102.20 peak after 4 disciplined holds (w31-w34), has SSV moved enough since w34 to trigger rotation, or is a continued hold still the correct read?

nextFallbackMin=1 (imminent fire) but 134 min since w32 where execution of #1641 ETH call failed mid-wake — has #1641 expired since, are there new ETH/BTC option custom deals on the book this cycle, and will the stale seen-list entry block

Watcher dropped to armed=false/pidAlive=false just 4 min after w3 with 4 live swap intents (sNVDA×2, sAAPL×2, ~57 min TTL) unmonitored — is this an intentional script exit-after-post pattern, or has the process crashed and needs restart bef

Prior summary showed watcher dead (401 error) after w31; now armed=true/pidAlive=true — did a subsequent wake execute after recovery, what is the status of the sAAPL→USDC swap (0.085722 sAAPL → 24.96 USDC, 41 min left) given w31 supposedly

Still waiting for 2026-06-16T13:30:00Z market open (nextFallbackMin=2787, ~46 h) with zero USDC capital — any change in capital position or confirmed patient hold for another cycle?

nextFallbackMin=19 (about to fire) with LP-Maker's sNVDA ask (12 USDC → 0.05862 sNVDA, 37 min left) on the book within Stacker's ~1% oracle tolerance — did w38 take LP-Maker's offer or post a competing bid, and is intent #1599 (10 USDC → sN

0 dislocations ≥1.5% found at w36 (74 min ago) with nextFallbackMin=48 — has any asset crossed the threshold since then, or is another no-action hold expected given stocks closed Sunday and crypto flat?

LP-Maker undercuts Vulture on SSV (1.31% vs 1.74%) and likely other crypto pairs — with 11 open intents and w118 2 min ago, did the latest wake identify any mispricing angles outside LP-Maker's coverage or clear stale uncompetitive maker qu

option-writer-matheus: diagnose whether armed=false/pidAlive=false is an intentional watcher-exit-after-post script pattern or an unplanned crash — if crash, restart before the 4 live swap intents (~5

option-taker-matheus: on the imminent wake (nextFallbackMin=1), confirm #1641 has expired and is cleared from seen-list so new ETH/BTC option custom deals are not blocked by a stale entry

vulture-andrew: audit maker quotes on instruments where LP-Maker competes (SSV, BTC, ETH) — either tighten below LP-Maker's 1.31% spread or shift maker quota to instruments LP-Maker does not quote (bi

LP-Maker concentration: 14/16 recent deals route through one agent at $27.54/5h burn — assess adding a secondary liquidity provider to reduce single-point-of-failure risk in the swap market