account-wide from statusline (✓ real, captured 2026-06-08T19:15:59+00:00)

Arb-Hunter-Tom

Latency arbitrage on a fast CEX feed (vs the slow on-chain oracle everyone else prices off). Primary: take near-decided binary bets the lagging oracle hasn't printed yet; fallback: snipe stale resting swaps. Pure taker, multi-surface, feed-mismatch-guarded, one move per wake.

bestTake=null both surfaces. ETH/BTC near-misses unaffordable (insufficient balance even ignoring approval). SSV sell-ed

new intent >#1067, OR binary bet ≤30-min settlement w/ CEX taker decided, OR 30-min fallback

11/11 settled deals are swaps (8× LP-Maker-Matheus, 1× Rebalancer-Lior, 2 unattributed); 0 binary bet fills. Bear-Yosher (main binary poster) crashed 272 min ago. Mimic-Ljuba armed but bestTake=null in all checked wakes — either prices don't diverge from oracle or BINARY_BET_HASHES set misses their

New intent ID > HIGH_WATER (1052) posted to book

MISSING: explicit binary bet surface monitor — binary bets are only evaluated during the wake run, not as a dedicated trigger; a near-expiry binary with CEX tak

8 confirmed swap fills; 11 live quotes across all 6 assets now

1 confirmed fill; posts regular 7 USDC BTC buy (though below LP floor — that intent may fail)

primary binary-bet source for arb-hunter's core mission, but currently crashed (armed=false, pidAlive=false, 272 min)

armed and posting BinaryBets; no fills yet — template hash mismatch or insufficient CEX divergence suspected

HIGH_WATER baseline prevents firing on stale pre-arm intents — clean anti-churn guard

SSV CEX pre-check before firing on mSSV-sell intents prevents waking on taker-negative edges

30-min fallback ensures binary surface is polled even if no new swap intents arrive

Label accurately scopes the multi-surface mission

BTC/ETH swap intents fire on any new ID > HIGH_WATER without a CEX pre-check — arb-hunter wakes and then dismisses them (e.g. 'ETH +18bps, BTC +13bps' — below f

Binary bet surface has no dedicated watcher trigger: near-expiry bets with CEX taker already decided can sit up to 30 min before discovery — the highest-value s

BINARY_BET_HASHES is a hardcoded 2-hash set; new templates from mimic-ljuba or recovered bear-yosher would be silently excluded

BTC/ETH swap intents fire without edge pre-check

watcher fires on any new intent > HIGH_WATER for BTC/ETH; w159–w163 show repeated wakes where gaps are 10–18bps (below EDGE_BPS_MIN) or wrong direction — each costs ~$0.66. SSV already has this guard.

Extend the CEX pre-check pattern in the watcher to BTC/ETH: fetch Coinbase spot, compute implied swap price vs oracle, skip fireWake if gap < EDGE_BPS_MIN + buffer.

Binary bet template hashes hardcoded — silent exclusion of new posters

BINARY_BET_HASHES contains exactly 2 hashes. Mimic-Ljuba (16 deals, armed) and a recovered bear-yosher would post with their own template hashes. Arb-hunter's CEX-decided check never runs on unknown hashes, making the primary mission surface partially blind.

Fetch template hash list dynamically from the book (or make the check template-agnostic by inspecting intent structure rather than hash-matching) so new binary posters are automatically covered.

Binary bet counterparty vacuum — bear-yosher crashed with no replacement

Bear-yosher (main binary poster) has been crashed 272 min with 6 in-flight deals unresolved. Arb-hunter's primary surface is structurally starved until it recovers. Mimic-Ljuba is the only live binary poster but hasn't produced a fill.

Restart bear-yosher or route arb-hunter's binary scan explicitly to mimic-ljuba's confirmed template hash.

Bear-Yosher

Two convictions, one book — crypto (BTC/ETH) down, tech equities up. Taker-first: express crypto-down by taking and posting BinaryBets BELOW strikes, and build a tech basket (sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT) via oracle-fair swaps funded by working USDC and recycled bet profit. Never hold spot crypto or Perpetuals; halt and cancel only when crypto climbs persistently (>2% over a few legs).

Core SDK armWatcher promise-drop: w29b & w30 fired simultaneously on same intent-fill trigger (06-10 04:09:00), posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets. Not agent reasoning failure — agent correctly detects and repairs invariant violation in w31 (repost). No agent-side misreading.

Deal 74 near-expiry (5 min window before 10:17 UTC)

Intent 760 resolution (fill/expiry, ~08:55 UTC, 1h TTL)

11 of 14 settled deals (79%), reliable copy-trader, thesis-aligned (crypto-down conviction mirror)

Takes mispriced binaries; could absorb bear's resting bets if competitive, but currently posting 8 aged unfilled intents (21-40m old) himsel

Takes near-decided binaries, but latency-arbitrage focus on fast CEX feed may not align with bear's patient on-chain oracle pricing

Fires on own intent resolution (maintains exactly-one-resting-bet invariant)

Fires on ETH/BTC price moves >1.5% (crypto-down thesis edge; adversarial stop-loss)

Fires on new aligned BinaryBet on book (taker leg of mission)

4h fallback (reasonable cadence for patient conviction, not sub-minute churn)

Zero LLM in loop, lightweight price-fetch checks, scalable

armWatcher promise-drop causes duplicate wakes

w29b and w30 fired simultaneously (06-10 04:09:00) on the same intent-fill event, posting duplicate BTC-BELOW bets and violating 'exactly one resting bet' invariant. Core SDK bug in armWatcher; all agents using armWatcher are at risk. This is the same root cause as LP-Maker offline (919 min, armed=f

Debug and patch armWatcher in sdk/scripts/wake-watch.js: ensure fireWake() trigger is consumed atomically so only one wakeLoop iteration fires per trigger event. Verify promise handling does not double-fire on same condition.

Index-Maker

Author + publish LONG IndexBasket intents (BTC+AAPL+NVDA, cash-settled USDC) and publish the contract's verified source to the indexer so a counterparty can audit it — one open basket at a time.

wake_script_source=null (9 consecutive cycles), wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=$0, armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null — identical across all recorded cycles; settled_deals='not-indexed' confirms no on-chain footprint

MISSING: no wake script exists (source=null)

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

MISSING: no process ever started (pidAlive=false, wakes=0)

Designed as the SHORT-side counterparty to index-maker's LONG IndexBasket intents — the only natural taker in the fleet

wake_script_source is null — no script exists at all

Agent never bootstrapped — no wake script, no process, no initialization

9 consecutive observer cycles confirm zero state change. wake_script_source=null means current.ts either doesn't exist or is empty. No process has ever started (wakes=0, pidAlive=false). The agent occupies a roster slot but has never operated.

Create current.ts for index-maker with: (1) oracle price fetch for BTC/AAPL/NVDA, (2) IndexBasket intent construction (LONG, cash-settled USDC), (3) verified contract source publication to indexer, (4) single open-intent-at-a-time guard, (5) hourly fallback cadence. Also confirm index-taker is initi

Counterparty index-taker likely also uninitialized

index-taker shows health=unknown with no roster deal count, mirroring index-maker's null state. Even after index-maker bootstraps, deals won't form until index-taker is also live and auditing posted baskets.

Bootstrap both index-maker and index-taker together as a pair; verify index-taker's audit-custom flow against index-maker's published verified source before declaring the market live.

Index-Taker

Take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents — but never blind: fetch the verified source from the indexer, audit it per the audit-custom-deal skill, record a verdict, and only cross on ACCEPT (fail-closed).

Index-maker health=unknown, 0 settled deals, no IndexBasket intents observed on-chain across 9 observer cycles; index-taker's wake condition (presence of a LONG IndexBasket intent) has never been satisfied

MISSING: no wake script loaded — source is null, trigger logic unknown/undeployed

Expected: new LONG IndexBasket intent posted on-chain by index-maker

sole intended counterparty — posts the LONG side index-taker takes SHORT

wake_script_source is null — no watcher deployed at all

No fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null) means agent cannot self-recover or even confirm liveness

Wake script never deployed

wake_script_source=null for 9 consecutive cycles. The agent cannot respond to any on-chain event. If index-maker were to post an IndexBasket intent today, index-taker would not see it.

Deploy current.ts with an on-chain IndexBasket intent poller and a fallback timer. This is a prerequisite for any live activity.

Dependency on index-maker blocks all activity

Index-maker has 0 lifetime activity and health=unknown across 9 cycles. Index-taker's entire mission is gated on a counterparty that has never operated.

Coordinate index-maker deployment first; index-taker is correctly dormant until that unblocks. No fix needed on index-taker's logic — fix the sequencing.

LP-Maker-Matheus

Keep the market liquid: fill/quote swaps near oracle mid from deep inventory; audit custom deals before accepting.

Cluster expiry handling. sNVDA tightness. SSV ask duplicate. Tighter spreads now oracle calm (base-skew floored at 8bps

#1034 sMSFT bid expiry ~16:25 UTC | ETH<1648/BTC<62200/SSV>2.085/SSV<2.062/sNVDA<202.60 guards | new fillable intent | 30min fallback

w67: 'Concurrent sessions mutually cancelled each other's work, requiring full book rebuild. 10 total txns this wake. Gas ~$2.' w68: '#1012 SSV bid #1013 sAAPL bid #1014 sMSFT bid disappeared (concurrent session cancelled)'. w65: 'Concurrent session spawned duplicates requiring...'. Counterparties a

Price inversion guard: per-quote thresholds for SSV/ETH/BTC/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT bids and asks

Expiry guard: fires 5 min before #1023 sMSFT ask (1781107440 epoch)

New fillable swap intent matching HOLD set

30-min fallback (nextFallbackMin=20 remaining)

Most frequent filler (7+ deals) — latency arb on oracle lag exactly consumes LP quotes

8+ deals — takes mispriced LP quotes as part of its mandate

5+ deals — DCA swaps land directly on LP quotes; persistent buyer

5 settled deals — external wallet, reliable taker

Delivered swaps mission — could take LP quotes, but only 1 deal lifetime

Per-quote price guards (10 thresholds) fire before inversion, not after — LP cannot be picked off without a wake

Expiry guard fires 5 min early on soonest intent (#1023) — prevents silent book decay

New fillable intent scan with HOLD-set filter — responsive to taker demand

30-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a maker maintaining live quotes

pidAlive=false is correct: Node process exits after arming; daemon holds alarm

No guard for when ETH/BTC inventory recovers enough to post missing asks — LP stays at 10/12 silently until next fallback fires

Price guard thresholds are hardcoded to w68 quote prices — after a book rebuild (w67/w68 concurrent collision) the new quote IDs/prices are baked in, but stale

Concurrent session collisions causing book churn and gas waste

w67: full book rebuild, 10 txns, ~$2 gas. w68: 4 intended intents cancelled mid-flight by a parallel session. w65: duplicate spawned by ETH inversion guard firing while another session was active. The watcher fires a new Node process while the previous session's on-chain txns are still pending — the

SDK: add a session-lock (e.g. advisory file lock on /agent/data/wake/session.lock) so a new wake process exits immediately if a prior session is still running. The fallback will retry; the book stays stable.

ETH/BTC ask gap — no recovery trigger

ETH inventory $0.25, BTC $0.33 — both below posting threshold. LP correctly skips asks, but has no trigger to post them once inventory replenishes (e.g. after Arb-Hunter fills a bid). Gap can persist up to 30 min.

Add inventory-threshold guard in wake-script (see suggestedChange above). Threshold values should come from the agent's own posting-floor config, not magic numbers.

Hardcoded quote prices/IDs in wake-script become stale after rebuilds

Current wake-script bakes in w68 quote IDs (#1040, #1041, etc.) and their exact prices. After a concurrent-session rebuild (w67/w68), new IDs are posted at slightly different prices — the old thresholds may be off by a few bps until the next wake rewrites the script.

Minor: wake-script should derive inversion thresholds from a stored config file (e.g. /agent/data/wake/quotes.json written each wake) rather than inline constants, so a rebuild automatically updates them.

Mimic-Ljuba

Directional bet copy-trader: mirror recent BinaryBets and accept winnable open bets, re-priced to the live oracle.

Board empty of binary flow. No ≥3pp taker-edge opportunity. One deliberate move rule enforced.

new BinaryBet appears on book (or 45 min fallback to re-scan)

14 of 14 BinaryBet settled deals are with Bear-Yosher; 1 custom deal also with Bear-Yosher; 0 settled deals with any other agent. Bear crashed 272+ min ago. Book confirmed empty of BinaryBets in wakes w54–w59.

new BinaryBet intent appears on book (templateHash 0x09cd...)

MISSING: no trigger for Bear-Yosher agent coming back online (though new-bet trigger covers this indirectly)

sole historical BinaryBet supplier, 14/14 BinaryBet deals; crashed and not posting

mission includes 'make a small-shade binary only' — could post BinaryBets Mimic could take

writes options; mission mentions BinaryBet posting in one engine; 15 settled deals

taker of near-decided binaries, not a poster — does not supply BinaryBet flow

Fires on new BinaryBet by template hash — correct event for a copy-trader whose only action is to take/mirror binary bets

45-min fallback is appropriate cadence for a patient taker; no sub-minute polling

Zero-LLM watcher (pure book scan), correct use of newMatches() to detect net-new intents, not 'book non-empty'

Baseline snapshot on first iteration prevents false-fire on already-seen bets

No awareness that Bear-Yosher (sole supplier) is offline — will idle silently at fallback cadence rather than alerting

Fallback at 45 min means up to 45-min delay detecting when Bear restarts and posts; could miss a short-lived posting window

Near-100% counterparty concentration on Bear-Yosher

14/14 BinaryBet deals (100%) are with Bear-Yosher. When Bear crashes, Mimic's entire deal pipeline stops. $0.59 realized PnL at risk of stalling indefinitely.

Expand mission to also accept BinaryBets from polymarket-ljuba and option-writer-matheus if they post to the open book; watcher already covers this (template-hash scan is counterparty-agnostic), so this is a CLAUDE.md/decision-criteria change, not a watcher change.

Bear-Yosher crash kills binary market supply

Bear is the only active BinaryBet poster (0 open BinaryBets confirmed across wakes w54–w59). Until Bear restarts, the binary sub-market is frozen. Mimic, arb-hunter-tom, and polymarket-ljuba all depend on Bear-sourced binary flow.

Restart Bear-Yosher; investigate crash trigger (Step 1 notes 272-min downtime with 6 in-flight deals — check for OOM, assertion failure, or unhandled deal-settlement callback).

Momentum-Nikita

Hunt the strongest mover each wake and concentrate into it via delivered swaps; rotate as leadership shifts, cash when nothing's working.

Historical: intents #741/#745 failed pre-LP-recovery due to illiquidity (1h TTL on #741, then LP absent for #745). Current: LP-Maker now live (11 open intents, BTC/ETH/sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT/SSV), so the fill-side is open. The starve condition has resolved; agent is now simply waiting for market conditio

Relative gap ≥2pp between any two assets' returns from live baseline (polled every 60s)

Primary and only practical fill counterparty for delivered swaps across all 6 universe assets; 11 open intents live now

Posts delivered swap intents occasionally (BTC buys), could cross if momentum fires on BTC — but Rebalancer is a taker not a maker

Measures the actual decision variable: relative gap between best and second-best return, not per-asset absolute move — exactly what the mission requires

Live baseline captured on first poll (not hardcoded from prior wake) — eliminates stale-snapshot false triggers

Full 6-asset universe including US equities (frozen pre-market-open, now open)

60s poll cadence appropriate for momentum — not sub-minute churn, not hourly stale

4h fallback ensures agent wakes regardless; zero-LLM in watcher; PID file enables clean kill

No near-miss logging when gap is 1.5–2pp — SSV has been a persistent near-leader; logging this band would confirm threshold proximity without changing firing be

No LP availability pre-check before firing — minor now that LP is stable, but would avoid waking agent into a no-fill environment if LP drops again

Historical -$0.50 PnL from pre-LP-recovery TTL mismatch

Intents #741 (1h TTL, LP absent) and #745 (8h TTL, expired illiquid) both failed when LP was offline. The -$0.50 realized PnL traces to those two wasted attempts, not to mispricing.

No action needed — LP is now live. If LP drops again, the agent should detect no fill and not re-post blindly; consider checking LP health (open intents count) before posting rather than relying on TTL to absorb illiquidity.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Buy cheap or near-decided in-the-money ETH/BTC options written by other agents, settling via the audited custom Option judge — selective, one deliberate take per wake.

a new audited Option intent appears (or 20h fallback to settle/reassess)

0 audited Option intents found in w21/w22/w23 scans post-settlement; sole counterparty option-writer-matheus (15 deals, health ok) has not posted since dealId 100 was taken at 14:47

new audited Option intent appears (templateHash 0xb3d66f4b... exact match via readOpenIntents)

sole Option writer in the fleet using the audited template; 15 settled deals, health ok

fires only on NEW audited Options (exact templateHash match, newMatches pattern) — won't false-fire on stale book

2h fallback is appropriate for a patient, selective taker — no sub-minute poll waste

zero-LLM watcher; PID written for clean kill

100-intent scan covers realistic book depth

settlement lifecycle not encoded in this script: when the agent holds an open deal near expiry, it overwrites current.ts with a transient settlement watcher (pe

Settlement trigger relies on transient current.ts override

w21 re-armed a settlement watcher by overwriting current.ts; if that process crashes, the standard watcher (fires on new intents only) takes over with no settlement trigger. A missed settlement = full collateral forfeit for an ITM option.

Fold the settlement check into the primary watcher: at each loop iteration, check if an open option deal exists and is within N minutes of expiry — if yes, fireWake immediately without waiting for the fallback.

Single counterparty concentration

100% of option supply comes from option-writer-matheus. If that agent pauses (e.g. rotates to its 30% equity portfolio engine for a long stretch), option-taker-matheus goes indefinitely supply-dry with no fallback.

Agent CLAUDE.md: note that if supply-dry streaks exceed 3–4 wakes, it may be worth flagging to the fleet operator that option-writer-matheus should increase option posting cadence, or that a second Option writer should be introduced.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Two engines, 70/30: a contrarian 50/50 stock+crypto portfolio that buys the worst recent performers (worst 2 stocks of sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT + BTC/ETH, ranked on real Pyth Benchmarks returns), plus a 30% option-writing sleeve selling cash-settled ETH/BTC options via the custom Option judge.

Portfolio mean-reversion targeting. sAAPL rank improved (−1.31% → +0.27%), exiting per contrarian mandate; sMSFT rank wo

rotation intents 0x431 (sAAPL sell) or 0x432 (sMSFT buy) resolve, or 90-min fallback

Engine 1: drawdown -19.26% at w35, halt threshold -20%; intents 933/938 self-canceled, 936 failed with no LP fill on sNVDA leg. Engine 2: 7 consecutive unfilled option intents (including 951 at w36 — collateral 8 USDC, premium 0.24 USDC, 60min accept window, no taker); Option-Taker-Matheus has 1 lif

>1% ETH or BTC price move vs baseline (vol spike)

New kind=unknown intent with USDC↔USDC legs (option buyer proxy)

MISSING: drawdown recovery trigger — if book value rises above -20% threshold, Engine 1 should reassess; currently only a 4h fallback catches this

Only option buyer in fleet; settled 1 custom deal with this agent (the single lifetime deal)

Live with 11 open swap quotes; could fill sNVDA/sMSFT legs — but Engine 1 is self-halted on drawdown, not LP availability

Both trade stock tokens; rebalancer posts BTC buys (7 USDC, below LP 12 USDC floor) — no direct overlap on stock legs

Vol spike trigger (>1% ETH/BTC) directly maps to Engine 2 re-entry condition — correct for options mission

Option buyer detection (kind=unknown, USDC↔USDC legs) is a reasonable proxy for the one counterparty class that matters

4h fallback covers market-close reassessment for Engine 1 (US hours 13:30–20:00 UTC); 132min remaining puts next wake ~18:00 UTC, still in session

Zero-LLM, polls every 60s, armed with pid — well-formed watcher

No drawdown recovery trigger: Engine 1 can only auto-resume on the 4h timer, not when the portfolio actually clears -20% threshold mid-session

Option buyer heuristic (kind=unknown + USDC↔USDC) may produce false positives on non-option custom deals — no premium/collateral ratio check

Engine 1 has no intra-session recovery path

Drawdown halt (-19.26%) is correct, but the watcher only has a 4h timer fallback for reassessment. If the portfolio recovers above the -20% threshold mid-session (e.g. via a settled swap or price move), Engine 1 stays dark until the timer fires.

Add state.json drawdown read to watcher loop; fireWake when book_value/initial_book > 0.80.

Wake timestamp anomaly: w37 (13:35) logged before w36 (14:00)

Recent wakes list shows w37 at 13:35 UTC and w36 at 14:00 UTC — wake numbers and timestamps are inverted. Either logging writes wake number after execution, or two wakes fired nearly simultaneously. If the latter, state.json may have been written twice concurrently.

Investigate wake numbering logic in SDK; confirm state.json has consistent single-writer semantics.

Option market has no active buyers — fleet-level starvation

Option-Taker-Matheus has 1 lifetime deal. Intent 951 (ETH put, 8 USDC collateral, 3% premium) found zero takers in 60min. This is not option-writer's fault — the option sleeve is correctly sized and priced, but the fleet has no liquid option demand.

Fleet move: recruit or configure a second option-taker agent, or lower the acceptance threshold in option-taker's CLAUDE.md to trigger on more put writes.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Value other agents' Options & BinaryBets against Polymarket's implied distribution and buy the mispriced ones; make a small-shade binary only when nothing's mispriced.

sAAPL stop ($277.34) or forward ($303.75) hit; new binary/option intent; fallback Jun11 20:00 UTC

Bear-yosher (primary BinaryBet poster, 17 deals, now armed=false/pidAlive=false) contributed the majority of new binary intents that would fire polymarket-ljuba's tertiary trigger. Vulture-andrew also crashed (0 open_intents). Remaining sources: option-writer-matheus (active, ok) and possibly mimic-

sAAPL oracle >= $303.75 (forward, +4.8%)

sAAPL horizon expiry: nowTs >= 1781294400 (Jun12 20:00 UTC)

New binary/option intent detected on book (delta vs lastWakeBets set)

Fallback: Jun11 20:00 UTC = ~1688 min (24h before expiry, to assess exit makers)

WEAKENED: binary-intent trigger now starved — bear-yosher crashed, vulture-andrew crashed; only option-writer-matheus remains as a reliable new-intent source

Writes new ETH/BTC/stock options — primary remaining source of option intents polymarket-ljuba can evaluate vs Polymarket distribution

Posts binary bets, but mission is to mirror bear-yosher; autonomous bet output likely reduced with bear-yosher down

Was the dominant binary intent poster (17 deals); crash directly starves polymarket-ljuba's tertiary trigger

Needed as the exit swap maker for sAAPL; 11 open intents, confirmed live

Three-tier priority is correct for a position holder: horizon expiry > price stop/forward > new taker opportunities

Fallback at Jun11 20:00 UTC (24h before expiry) is mission-correct: gives the agent time to find exit swap makers before horizon closes

Delta-only intent scan avoids re-firing on stale intents — prevents false wakes and token waste

horizonTs loaded from state.json with hardcoded fallback — robust to state corruption

60s poll interval is appropriate; not sub-minute, well inside the action time window

No oracle-drift re-evaluation trigger: if sAAPL moves 1–2% without hitting stop/forward, existing open binary/option intents on the book could become newly misp

Tertiary trigger is now structurally weakened by bear-yosher/vulture-andrew crashes — no compensating mechanism (e.g., a shorter re-eval fallback)

Bear-yosher crash starves polymarket-ljuba's tertiary trigger

Bear-yosher (primary BinaryBet poster) is crashed at 272 min with armed=false/pidAlive=false. Polymarket-ljuba's binary-intent delta trigger depends on new bets appearing — with bear-yosher down, this trigger is largely inert. Option-writer-matheus remains the only reliable option-intent source.

Prioritize bear-yosher crash recovery; its 6 in-flight BinaryBet deals need a live agent managing them, and its restart would restore polymarket-ljuba's taker signal.

No oracle-drift re-evaluation for existing open intents

The watcher only fires on NEW intents. If sAAPL or BTC/ETH prices drift significantly between wakes, existing open binary/option intents may become mispriced vs Polymarket but the agent won't re-evaluate them until a new intent appears or the fallback fires (1688 min).

Add a fireWake trigger when oracle price changes >X% since last recorded snapshot, to force re-evaluation of the existing open intent book.

Rebalancer-Lior

DCA toward the target portfolio mix via delivered swaps; one patient slice per wake.

Summary: 4th consecutive BTC DCA failure at 7 USDC lot size (w20→w21 #777 expired, w22 #831 expired, w23 #887 now almost certainly expired — posted 51 min ago, intent had 12 min left at Step-1 observation time). Agent's w23 rationale 'LP may come alive at this lower oracle' misdiagnoses the blocker: LP-Maker minimum is a lot-size floor (12 USDC), not an oracle-price

Rebalancer has posted the same 7 USDC BTC intent 4 times; all have expired or are about to. LP-Maker's 12 USDC minimum is a hard lot-size constraint — the agent's own reasoning ('LP may come alive at lower oracle') is incorrect and will cause a 5th identical failure. 0xBd6a has not shown confirmed recent book presence. The only near-term unblocking event is stocks market open at 13:30 UTC.

LP-Maker minimum = 12 USDC; every BTC intent posted at 7 USDC (w20, w21 #777 expired, w22 #831 expired, w23 #887 ~expired). 0xBd6a took 2/8 lifetime deals at small lots but no confirmed current book presence. No other demonstrated small-lot BTC taker in fleet.

Sound process, wrong diagnosis. Agent correctly identifies it is BTC-underweight and that LP is not filling — but attributes non-fill to 'lower oracle price' rather than LP's lot-size floor. This is the key reasoning error: it produces a confident-looking rationale for repeating a structurally blocked action. Increasing the oracle-competitive price does nothing when the minimum is 12 USDC and the

intent #887 resolved (ownIntentResolved poll every 60s)

stocks market open 2026-06-10T13:30:00Z fallback (36 min remaining)

12 USDC minimum lot size; current BTC intent is 7 USDC — hard floor, not price-sensitive

Only demonstrated small-lot BTC taker (2/8 deals); external address, reliability unknown

Taker of mispriced/near-decided deals, not a BTC swap maker

none confirmed — agent correctly checked the book for favorable takes at w18 (took sAAPL) and w19 (no stock takes available). No evidence of a fillable take it passed on since last summary.

Dual trigger is correct: intent resolution (fill/expire) fires first, stocks market open as hard fallback — no wasted sleep

60s poll interval appropriate for a patient DCA agent

Watcher is zero-LLM, has fallback, and armed correctly (pidAlive=true, nextFallbackMin=36)

Watches for intent resolution but cannot detect lot-size mismatch — agent will post another 7 USDC intent at next wake unless the mission CLAUDE.md is corrected

No watcher change needed — the watcher logic is correct. The fix belongs in the agent's CLAUDE.md: add an explicit constraint 'BTC lot minimum 12 USDC to be LP-fillable' so the next wake posts a fillable intent instead of repeating the stru

Incorrect diagnosis of LP non-fill: oracle price vs lot-size floor

Agent's w23 log states 'LP may come alive at this lower oracle' — but LP-Maker minimum is 12 USDC regardless of price. 7 USDC lots are always below the floor. This reasoning will produce a 5th identical expiry.

Add to rebalancer-lior CLAUDE.md: 'LP-Maker minimum lot is 12 USDC; BTC DCA slices must be ≥ 12 USDC to be LP-fillable. Do not post below this threshold and attribute failure to oracle price.'

4 consecutive failed BTC DCA slices with zero lot-size adaptation

w20 → w21 (#777 expired) → w22 (#831 expired, agent logged '3rd attempt') → w23 (#887, almost certainly expired). Mission is DCA progress; zero fills = zero progress. BTC remains -7.4pp underweight.

Bump BTC DCA slice to 12–15 USDC to enter LP-fillable range. If budget constrains lot size below 12 USDC, document that BTC DCA is blocked until budget allows a fillable slice and shift focus to stock rebalancing (sAAPL underweight -15pp, stocks open in ~36 min).

Stacker-Massimo

Patiently convert USDC into sNVDA, one 0.50 USDC swap per wake, until the budget is deployed.

Pre-market window; CLAUDE.md enforces 09:30–16:00 ET only. No fills possible now by design. 2 settled deals both with LP-Maker-Matheus confirm the path clears at open.

epoch 1781098200 reached (13:30 UTC 2026-06-10 = 09:30 AM ET) via 30-second poll loop

fallback at 14:00 UTC (open + 30 min) if poll misses

Both settled deals were LP-Maker fills; LP has live sNVDA quote (12 USDC lot) and is confirmed able to fill Stacker's 0.50 USDC slices

Fires exactly at epoch 1781098200 (13:30 UTC) — the only moment Stacker is allowed to act

30-second poll cadence is appropriate: lightweight, zero-LLM, no book dependency

Fallback at open+30 min (14:00 UTC) is a sensible safety net; nextFallbackMin=129 confirms it resolves to ~14:00 UTC from current ~11:51 UTC

No book-watching needed for a pure DCA mission — correctly omitted

fallbackMs when already past open evaluates to 30 min from invocation time, which is correct but implicit — a comment would prevent future confusion

LP lot-size headroom shrinks as sNVDA price rises

LP posts 12 USDC lots; Stacker posts 0.50 USDC. Confirmed fills show LP accepts sub-lot today, but if LP tightens minimums or oracle price moves, 0.50 USDC may become un-fillable. Currently 9.00 USDC / 18 wakes remaining.

Monitor: if next fill at 13:30 fails despite LP live, check whether LP minimum crossed 0.50 USDC threshold and adjust slice size in CLAUDE.md.

Swing-Nikita

Fade dislocations: buy assets stretched below their trailing average, sell those stretched above, via delivered swaps. One slice per wake.

SSV trigger level = 2.01 × 0.985 = 1.9799; last w20 oracle read showed SSV above that. sNVDA/SSV sell-strength requires non-zero position — agent has 0 in both. 3 lifetime settled deals, all pre-w12; no deal since book went thin.

Oracle price crosses trailing_avg × 0.985 on any of BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT (60s poll)

MISSING: no sell-strength trigger — if a buy-dip fires and swing-nikita acquires a position, the watcher won't proactively fire for sell-strength; relies on nex

Has open quotes on all 6 watched assets; would fill buy-dip swaps at oracle mid

DCA buyer posting small BTC slices; could cross a buy-dip intent but 7 USDC floor mismatch ongoing

Concentrates into strongest mover; could be counterparty if swing-nikita's sell aligns with momentum buy

Fires on the exact condition the agent acts on: buy-dip ≥1.5% below per-asset trailing avg

60s poll cadence — appropriate for a dislocation hunter (not sub-minute noise, not multi-hour lag)

Zero-LLM, deterministic threshold math; can't false-fire on 'book non-empty'

2h hard fallback ensures the agent re-evaluates trailing averages even if no dip fires

TRAILING averages are hardcoded at arm time (w20, 15:31 UTC) and stay static for up to 2h — if oracle prices drift materially before the 17:31 fallback, trigger

No sell-strength trigger — after a successful buy-dip, the watcher won't fire proactively to sell the acquired position

TRAILING averages stale up to 2h

Averages are snapshot at wake time and held fixed until next wake or fallback. A 2% price drift over 90 min could make the ≥1.5% threshold miss or false-trigger.

Fetch fresh oracle prices each loop iteration and compute trailing_avg as a rolling mean (e.g. EMA or last-N-reads average) rather than a one-time snapshot in the wake script header.

Sell-strength permanently blocked — not escalated as a mission constraint

sNVDA/SSV sell signals have appeared in every wake since at least w14 but will never execute until a buy-dip fires to build inventory. The agent correctly declines to act but doesn't flag this as a structural dead-end in its reasoning output.

Low priority given correct behavior, but mission CLAUDE.md could note: 'sell-strength signals are latent until inventory exists; if no buy-dip fires in N wakes, re-evaluate asset list or threshold.'

Vulture-Andrew

Pick off other bots' mistakes — take clearly-mispriced swaps and near-decided binaries, and post sharp/baited intents that are near-sure wins. Only near-certain edges, patient otherwise.

985 eroded to 0.22%; 989 SSV sell drifted to 2.29% vs 1% target (rival at 0.49%); 948/949 expiring in 13-14 min — re-quo

18 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781103961; next poll 60s

9 of 11 recent settled deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus; rebalance buys 935/932 settled instantly once LP returned (w63 13:47); bait sells 874/875/876 require directional takers not LP — momentum/swing/stacker live but haven't crossed yet this cycle

scan-edges: new takeable edge ≥1% (excluding pre-seeded honeypots 779/836/869)

check-my-quotes: cancelCmds.length > 0 (erosion/undercut)

pre-expiry: ~5 min before soonest intent expiry

MISSING: no immediate trigger when LP posts a matching quote — relies on 30s poll cycle, so LP quote arrival can lag up to 30s before vulture fires

Primary swap counterparty (9/11 recent deals); fills rebalance buys instantly on return — confirmed deals 98/99

Secondary swap counterparty, 3/11 recent settled deals — unknown agent but reliably active

Could take sAAPL/sMSFT/sNVDA bait sells if these are the strongest movers this wake; directional taker

Fades dislocations — could take vulture's bait sells if asset stretched above trailing avg

Only buys sNVDA at 0.50 USDC/wake — lot size too small for vulture's bait sells

Takes mispriced swaps on fast CEX feed; could cross vulture's bait sells if oracle lags

Fires on new takeable edge ≥1% via scan-edges — directly aligned with vulture's pick-off mission

check-my-quotes erosion/undercut trigger prevents free pick-off of stale quotes

Pre-expiry trigger (~5 min before soonest expiry) protects against TTL-lapse waste

seenEdgeIds pre-seeded with confirmed honeypots (779/836/869) — zero-LLM guard

30s poll cadence + 2h hard fallback — appropriate for opportunistic agent

30s poll means up to 30s lag between LP posting a matching quote and vulture firing — suboptimal for competitive fill race

No explicit LP-quote-arrival event trigger; relies on scan-edges polling rather than reactive signal

[object Object] logging in wake descriptions

w59, w61, w62, w63, w64 all show '[object Object]' in the wake log summary line — an object is being string-interpolated without .toString() or JSON.stringify(). Degrades historical analysis readability.

Find the wake-log string concatenation where the state/result object is interpolated and replace with JSON.stringify(obj) or obj.summary / obj.action fields.

Realized PnL -$1.20 on 34 deals at 15.1% pool spend ($22.82/5h)

34 deals with $55.43 lifetime token cost and -$1.20 realized PnL means edge capture is not yet covering LLM costs. The +$0.28 from deals 98/99 is directionally correct but the rate needs to accelerate now LP is live.

Monitor PnL-per-deal over next 5 wakes with LP active; if bait sells remain unfilled >60 min into market-open epoch, lower bait floor from 1% to 0.75% to attract momentum/swing flow.

LP LIVE, BINARY DARK

14/14 Mimic settled deals ↔ Bear-Yosher; arb-hunter 0/11 binary fills lifetime; Mimic reliableCounterparties=0 this cycle; book confirmed empty of BinaryBets wakes w54–w59

LP minimum=12 USDC confirmed; all intents at 7 USDC; w23 rationale: 'LP may come alive at this lower oracle' (incorrect); #777 expired, #831 expired, #887 near-certainly expired

w67: 'Concurrent sessions mutually cancelled each other's work, requiring full book rebuild. 10 total txns. Gas ~$2'; w68: '#1012 SSV bid #1013 sAAPL bid #1014 sMSFT bid disappeared (concurrent sessio

9 cycles: both agents armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=$0; index-taker settled_deals='not-indexed'

w35: drawdown hit -19.26%, intents 933/938 self-canceled; 7 unfilled options including #951 (8 USDC collateral, 0.24 premium, 60min window, no taker); option-taker w23 (14:56): 0 audited Option intent

Bear-Yosher crashed — BinaryBet market dark 272+ min

Bear-Yosher armed=false/pidAlive=false, 6 live in-flight deals (safe, oracle-resolved independently). Mimic-Ljuba is armed and waiting but has 0 reliable counterparties — it can't post new bets without a counter-side. Arb-Hunter-Tom has 0 binary fills in 11 lifetime settled deals; Bear's absence means that remains 0.

Bear watcher: armed=false, pidAlive=false; 6 live Bear↔Mimic deals; Mimic reliableCounterparties=0; arb-hunter 0 binary fills; book empty of BinaryBets w54–w59

Restart Bear-Yosher immediately; investigate crash trigger — last confirmed SDK issue was promise-drop (w29b/w30 concurrent fires); check if that pattern recurred or produced an unhandled rejection

Rebalancer-Lior 7 USDC lot guaranteed-fail — 5th consecutive cycle

LP-Maker minimum is 12 USDC; Rebalancer posts at 7 USDC every cycle. Agent misdiagnoses the blocker as oracle price, not lot-size floor — so it will keep failing indefinitely. 0xBd6a took small lots in 2 of 8 lifetime deals but is not confirmed present in current book.

LP minimum=12 USDC; intents #777/#831/#887 at 7 USDC all expired; w23 log explicitly blames oracle not floor; 0 7-USDC fills from LP in any cycle

Update Rebalancer-Lior CLAUDE.md: raise DCA lot size to ≥12 USDC; or add pre-post check — if LP is sole active BTC taker and lot < floor, skip this wake

LP-Maker concurrent session collisions — recurring gas waste, quote gaps

w65/w67/w68 all hit concurrent session collisions. w67 alone: 10 txns, ~$2 gas for a full book rebuild. Intents 1012/1013/1014 dropped w68. ETH ask and BTC ask missing from 11-quote book. Pattern recurs each session cycle.

w67: 'Concurrent sessions mutually cancelled, full book rebuild, 10 total txns, Gas ~$2'; w68: '#1012 SSV/#1013 sAAPL/#1014 sMSFT disappeared'; 10/12 live quotes confirmed

Add session-deduplication lock in Node watcher loop (file lock or atomic flag) to prevent concurrent fires on the same deadline; alternatively add intent-existence pre-check before each post so collisions self-heal without full rebuild

Index-Maker/Index-Taker pair dead 9 consecutive cycles — no path to activation

Index-Maker has never run: wake_script_source=null, 0 wakes, $0 tokens, no on-chain footprint across all 9 observer cycles. Index-Taker's sole wake condition (LONG IndexBasket intent present) has never been satisfied and never will be until index-maker posts.

9 cycles identical state for both: armed=false, pidAlive=false, wakes=0, tokens=$0; index-taker settled_deals='not-indexed'

Initialize Index-Maker: write wake_script/current.ts, configure CLAUDE.md mission, arm the watcher — this unblocks Index-Taker automatically

Option market dry — writer in dual halt, taker armed with nothing to fill

Option-Writer halted both engines: drawdown -19.26% (0.74% from -20% threshold) from 4 failed sMSFT swaps, plus 7 consecutive unfilled option intents (engine 2). Option-Taker took deal 100 (+$7.76 PnL, ETH put ITM) but found 0 new options in 3 subsequent wakes.

w35: drawdown -19.26%, intents 933/938 self-canceled; deal 100 settled confirmed; option-taker w23 (14:56): 0 audited options; 7 unfilled writer intents including #951

Review option-writer sMSFT rotation failure (4 failed swaps 530/533/764/804); if LP is now live, retry sMSFT leg — recovery above -20% threshold re-enables engine 1 and resumes option supply for taker

Stacker-Massimo state ambiguous post-market-open fire

Stacker was armed for 13:30 UTC open (epoch 1781098200); now shows armed=false/pidAlive=false, 0 burn/5h, last wake 122 min ago. Cannot confirm whether it fired cleanly and completed, or silently died without posting. Two settled deals (both with LP-Maker-Matheus) confirm the path works — but this cycle's fire is unverified.

watcher: armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null; 0 burn/5h; last wake 122 min ago (orient); 2 lifetime deals ↔ LP-Maker-Matheus

Check Stacker-Massimo logs for wake at ~13:30 UTC: did it post a buy intent? If silent death, investigate and re-arm before next market open (09:30 ET tomorrow)

claude exit 1:  (after 3 tries; raw head: )