Arb-Hunter-Tom

SSV CEX premium returned but no poster priced favorably off stale oracle. All new intents above HWM 2150 confirmed taker

new intent >2444 with edge ≥5bps OR crypto binary ≤30min to BET SETTLEMENT with CEX taker in-money OR 30-min fallback (regime: ETH +18bps, BTC +15bps, SSV +12bps — open, watching for taker-favorable poster)

Summary: HWM advanced 2374→2442 (+68 intents) since last summary. SSV edge fired at w344 (deal 193, 25bps margin, intent #2389; USDC 84.89→84.65, SSV 1.619→1.719). Swap edge fired at w345 (deal 194, intent #2382, $0.024 on $9.255 notional vs LP-Maker). Then 4× legitimate WAIT (w346–w350) as oracle fully converged to CEX on all assets (≤6bps at w350). ETH forming +13b

Two edges cleared since HWM=2374: SSV at 25bps (deal 193) and a swap at 26bps (deal 194 via LP-Maker). Oracle has since fully converged on all assets (≤6bps, w350); 4 subsequent WAITs are correct and not churn. Next deal requires either a new poster anchoring to a stale price (ETH regime +13bps forming) or a binary bet entering the 30-min window with CEX decided — watcher will catch both.

Oracle converged ≤6bps all assets (w350 explicit); ETH regime +13bps forming at w348–w349 but no poster anchoring to stale price; no binary bet within 30-min expiry window with CEX decided. 23 of 25 recent settled deals via LP-Maker-Matheus — single-counterparty dependency on swap surface.

Sound and on-mission. Correctly gates on CEX-vs-oracle divergence (not 'book non-empty'); uses terms.expiry (bet settlement) not intent TTL for binary gating — the right variable. WAIT wakes at w346–w350 are justified by oracle convergence data cited in each wake, not vague deferrals. w343 correctly identified SSV +50bps but skipped because no USDC→SSV poster existed — discipline, not a miss. No r

Binary bet ≤30min to BET SETTLEMENT with CEX margin ≥0.5% taker-in-money

23/25 recent deals — posts resting swaps at oracle mid, exploitable when CEX diverges ≥10bps

2 recent deals; posts baited intents takeable when mispriced

intermittent — PID death undiagnosed per

w343: SSV oracle gap +50bps confirmed, but no USDC→SSV poster to take — market-structure gap, not an agent miss. w348–w349: ETH +13bps regime forming but again no poster anchoring to stale price. Agent correctly identified and skipped both. No takeable intent was passed over.

Uses terms.expiry (bet settlement time) not intent TTL for binary gating — correct for latency arb semantics

Baselines existing intents on first poll (seen set) — prevents spurious wakes on stale book state

Scans ALL bets each poll cycle for binary check, not just new ones — won't miss a bet that drifts into the window

Per-asset CEX fetch with null-guard on failure — prevents mismatch fills on stock assets or fetch errors

30-min fallback ensures periodic re-evaluation even when oracle converges and no new intents appear

Watcher fires on new intents (>HWM=2442) for swap edge, but a poster that arrived before the last arm and whose price is now stale won't re-trigger until fallba

HWM=2442 vs last agent-logged internal HWM ~2404: 38 intents (2405–2441) were baselined at arm time and won't fire the watcher even if they're now stale-priced

Add a resting-swap re-scan loop in the watcher: for each open swap intent (all, not just new), fetch CEX price and compare to oracle; fire if divergence ≥10bps taker-favorable. This makes the watcher reactive to regime shifts mid-cycle (e.g

Watcher blind to resting posters that become stale between arms

Swap edge detection only fires on intents with ID > HWM=2442. A poster that was baselined at arm time but whose oracle price drifts stale mid-cycle (ETH +13bps at w348–w349, SSV +50bps at w343) is invisible to the watcher until the 30-min fallback. Two separate wakes documented this exact gap.

In the watcher's runWatchLoop, add a swap-edge scan over all resting intents: fetch CEX for each, compare to oracle implied by intent rate, fireWake if divergence ≥10bps taker-favorable. Cost: one CEX fetch per swap intent per 60s poll — negligible.

Single-counterparty concentration: 23/25 recent swap deals via LP-Maker-Matheus

Arb-hunter-tom's swap surface is entirely dependent on LP-Maker-Matheus posting liquidity. Vulture-Andrew (2 recent deals) is the only backup, but has an undiagnosed PID death issue making it intermittent. No LP-Maker = no swap arb.

Diagnose Vulture-Andrew's PID death to restore the secondary swap surface, or bring a second active swap maker online.

Bear-Yosher

No resting intent on book (2387 expired). BTC SHORT posture = post one bear bet. Strike $65,400 = 1.30% cushion at BTC $

intent 2454 resolved OR deal 159 pre-fire (17:49) OR BTC +1.5% OR 4h fallback

Summary: HALT lifted w60 (10:35Z), anchor 2375 filled immediately at w62 (11:17Z) — not still resting. Replacement anchor 2387 (BTC<$65,100) is now the 1 open intent. Agent holds 3 live bets: deal 159 (expiry 17:59Z today), deal 160 (~10:58Z Jun 16), deal_from_2375 (~10:57Z Jun 16); counterparties are Mimic-Ljuba (×2) and Polymarket-Ljuba (×1). ETH band gap flagged l

Intent 2375 filled at w62 (not the open intent — that is now 2387 BTC<$65,100 with BTC_BASELINE $65,912). Three live custom bets maturing today and tomorrow; mission executing correctly. One persistent structural gap: no ETH band in watcher despite dual BTC/ETH HALT signal, now two cycles old.

Agent is executing cleanly (3 live deals, anchor 2387 resting, no errors); structural omission is ETH band absent from wake_script_source — no ETH_BASELINE or ETH_DEVIATION_PCT anywhere in current.ts despite mission's dual BTC/ETH HALT logic

Sound and on-mission: halted correctly at w57 when both signals flipped, lifted cleanly at w60, re-entered with 2375 (filled quickly), reposted 2387 at w62 — disciplined one-resting-anchor execution. No churn. BTC_BASELINE updated from $65,716 (prior run) to $65,912 (current), showing live recalibration.

intent 2387 resolved via ownIntentResolved (60s poll)

deal 159 pre-fire at 17:49Z (betExpiry 17:59Z today)

deal_from_2375 pre-fire at 10:47Z Jun 16

2 live custom deals settled; copy-trader matches bear-yosher BTC/ETH SHORT direction

active (2 simultaneous live custom deals

1 live custom deal; values bets vs Polymarket distribution — compatible posture

Takes near-decided binaries; could take 2387 if BTC approaches $65,100 decisively

active (5 recent deals, 1× Vulture-Andre

none observed — anchor 2387 is resting; no evidence of fillable BTC-below bets skipped. The 0x8121 batch of 8× BTC 4-USDC custom intents (flood anomaly) could in principle overlap but the address is unidentified and likely not a tradeable counterparty.

ownIntentResolved on 2387 catches fill and expiry promptly without polling delay

Pre-fire timers for all 3 live deals (17:49Z, 10:47Z, 10:48Z) — settlement window won't be missed

BTC ±1.5% on recalibrated $65,912 baseline with 60s poll cadence is appropriately tight for a short-bet posture

4h fallback (~15:17Z) fires before deal 159's 17:49Z pre-fire, keeping chain intact

No ETH band — mission HALT trigger is BTC+ETH jointly; ETH rally undetected for up to 4h (flagged last run, still absent)

Deal 160 listed as 'uncertain status' in comments but DEAL_160_PREFIRE_MS is hardcoded — spurious wake risk if deal 160 never existed or already resolved

Add ETH_BASELINE + ETH_DEVIATION_PCT (1.5%) and fetch ETH price each loop tick alongside BTC, firing on deviation — mirror lines 42–50 of the BTC block. This is the only gap that could cause a missed HALT and has now persisted two full obse

ETH band missing from watcher (two cycles old)

wake_script_source has BTC_BASELINE=$65,912 and BTC_DEVIATION_PCT=1.5 but zero ETH equivalent. Agent's HALT condition is dual BTC+ETH SHORT; a ≥1.5% ETH rally while BTC is quiet won't fire a wake for up to 4h. First flagged in prior summary, not yet fixed.

Add ETH_BASELINE (current ETH price at arm time) and ETH_DEVIATION_PCT=1.5 to watcher; fetch ETH price in the runWatchLoop tick alongside BTC; fireWake on deviation — same pattern as existing BTC block

Deal 160 status uncertain but pre-fire timer hardcoded

Watcher comment marks deal 160 betExpiry as 'uncertain status'; if deal 160 was never created or already settled, DEAL_160_PREFIRE_MS fires a spurious no-op wake at 10:48Z Jun 16.

At wake start, confirm deal 160 is live via readDeal before arming the pre-fire timestamp; skip timer if deal is absent or already resolved

Index-Maker

Summary: 53rd consecutive null cycle — no change from the 52nd. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, 0 settled deals. Step-1 asked whether any signal (wallet funding, env var, wake-script commit) distinguishes 'deploying soon' from 'permanently decommissioned' — none is visible: every field is byte-id

index-maker has never run: 0 wakes, 0 tokens, 0 deals across 53 observer cycles. wake_script_source=null confirms no watcher has ever been deployed. No wallet, env, or commit signal distinguishes 'pending deployment' from 'decommissioned' — escalation to a fleet-level decision is warranted now.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime tokens, 0 wakes, 53 consecutive null cycles; index-taker (natural counterparty) also health=unknown

N/A — no reasoning has ever occurred. Cannot assess quality for an agent that has never woken.

MISSING: no wake script exists (wake_script_source=null)

MISSING: no watcher process (pidAlive=false, armed=false)

MISSING: no fallback timer (nextFallbackMin=null)

Designed to take the SHORT side of LONG IndexBasket intents index-maker would publish — natural structural pair

health=unknown, also appears undeployed;

LP swaps only; IndexBasket is a custom cash-settled instrument, not a swap — no structural fit

unmeasurable: watcher blind to book — agent has never woken and no wake script exists; no intents have ever been posted to create an opportunity

wake_script_source=null — no script exists at all

Deploy a wake script with a periodic fallback (e.g. 60–120 min) that checks whether a LONG IndexBasket intent is open and re-posts if expired — the entire mission is blocked until this exists

Never deployed — 53 null cycles, no wake script, no process

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null for 53 consecutive observer cycles. Zero lifetime tokens, zero wakes. This is not 'correctly waiting' — the agent container has never been started or its watcher has never been registered.

Fleet-level decision required: either (a) deploy the agent with a wake script and watcher, or (b) explicitly decommission it and remove it from the roster. 53 cycles of silence with no deployment signal is sufficient to escalate.

IndexBasket market entirely non-functional — both maker and taker undeployed

index-maker (health=unknown, 0 deals) and index-taker (health=unknown, 0 deals in roster) are both undeployed. The IndexBasket instrument has no liquidity and no audit path — any agent attempting to interact with it would find no open intents and no verified source in the indexer.

Deploy both index-maker and index-taker together — maker must publish the verified contract source before taker can audit and take; neither works without the other.

Index-Taker

Summary: 53rd consecutive null cycle — zero change on any dimension. armed=false, pidAlive=false, nextFallbackMin=null, wake_script_source=null, 0 lifetime wakes, $0 lifetime tokens, settled_deals=not-indexed. Focus question answered: no IndexBasket intents appear on the open book this cycle (only LP swaps, binary bets, and the 0x8121 custom BTC/ETH/SSV batch are vis

53 null cycles, no open IndexBasket intents on the book (confirmed: only LP swaps, binary bets, and the 0x8121 custom batch are resting — zero IndexBasket template entries). Index-maker is equally undeployed (health=unknown, 0 deals, no process), so supply and demand sides are simultaneously absent. Nothing for this agent to act on even if deployed.

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0, tokens_lifetime_usd=0; index-maker health=unknown with 0 deals and no process — bilateral market has never been activated; open book contains no IndexBasket intents across 53 observed cycles

N/A — agent has never executed a single wake; no reasoning to evaluate. The structural condition (no counterparty, no book supply) means deployment would be immediately idle regardless.

MISSING: no wake script (wake_script_source=null)

sole structural counterparty — posts LONG IndexBasket intents that index-taker is designed to take the SHORT side of

DEAD — health=unknown, 0 deals, no activ

none — open book contains zero IndexBasket intents this cycle; no takeable supply exists

wake_script_source=null — no watcher exists at all

No deployment has ever occurred (0 lifetime wakes)

Moot until index-maker is deployed first; standing up index-taker without its only counterparty posting intents gains nothing. The single highest-leverage move is a joint deployment decision: activate index-maker first, confirm IndexBasket

index-taker never deployed — 53 cycles, no wake script, no process

armed=false, pidAlive=false, wake_script_source=null, wakes=0. Not a crash or infra failure — simply never started. With no IndexBasket intents on the open book (confirmed this cycle), deployment today would be immediately idle.

Decide: decommission or deploy. If deploying, index-maker must go first to populate the book.

IndexBasket bilateral market entirely dark — both maker and taker undeployed simultaneously

Index-maker (health=unknown, 0 deals, no process) is the sole source of LONG IndexBasket intents; index-taker is the sole designed taker. Neither has ever executed. The open book shows zero IndexBasket template intents across 53 cycles. This is a dormant market segment, not a thin one.

Fleet decision required: either jointly deploy both agents (index-maker first, index-taker second) or formally decommission both and remove from the roster to stop the noise in fleet health reporting.

LP-Maker-Matheus

No fillable intents; all 12 quotes live and fairly priced.

Summary: Cluster #2334–#2339 SUCCESSFULLY renewed at w210 (11:09Z): 6 cancels + 7 posts with wider ETH/BTC vol-adj spreads after oracle surge, 12/12 book sustained through w210→w213 with zero dark gaps. Current book: 6 bid/ask pairs (#2436–#2444) with all three prefire timestamps armed (PREFIRE2 12:10Z, PREFIRE3 12:25Z, PREFIRE4 12:46Z). Negative realized PnL (-$16.8

12/12 book fully operational; cluster #2334–#2339 prefire-renewed on schedule at 11:09Z with no gap (prior summary's critical open question answered: yes, the prefire fired and the book held). However realized PnL is -$16.82 across 149 deals and $72.87/5h token burn (44.7% pool) — Arb-Hunter-Tom adversely selects LP-Maker's stale oracle quotes at ~70% of fill volume, making the LP function technically correct but net-negative.

Arb-Hunter-Tom: ~28/40 visible recent deals (~70%); mission is latency arb on fast CEX feed vs slow on-chain oracle LP-Maker prices off — LP-Maker is the structural slow leg. ETH ask inverted -54bps (w212 cancel), SSV ask filled break-even $2.42 (w211), BTC ask consumed before scheduled wake (w212).

Sound and on-mission: vol-adjustment widening (ETH +47.5bps, BTC +29.5bps in w210 after oracle surge) and per-asset inversion guards show LP-Maker correctly diagnoses adverse selection and responds. SSV guard self-corrected within one wake cycle after oracle drop $2.44→$2.43 (w213 guard wake). Solving the right problem but imperfectly — wider spreads reduce fill rate without eliminating the oracle

PREFIRE4 at 12:46Z (7min before main cluster #2436–#2442 exp ~12:53–12:55)

Bid inversion: oracle < bid_lo for any of 6 assets (ETH/BTC/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT)

Ask inversion: oracle >= ask_hi for any of 6 assets

Primary taker (~70% of fills); takes LP-Maker's resting asks specifically when oracle moves favorably — this is adverseselection, not neutra

active, 5 recent settled deals, HWM 2374

Takes sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT asks within ~1% oracle; 4 visible recent deals; less adverse selection risk than crypto takers

Takes swaps as delta hedges for options portfolio; 6 visible recent deals; reliable repeat counterparty driven by hedging need not oracle la

3 recent takes from LP-Maker; also posts competing asks on BTC/sAAPL/sMSFT/ETH/SSV — dual role as taker AND supply competitor; PID death iss

ok but PID death issue undiagnosed after

2 recent deals; large concentrated swaps on rotation — infrequent but high-value when active; pre-open window now

1 recent deal; takes swaps to hedge option positions; low frequency

unmeasurable: watcher monitors inversion guards and prefire timestamps but does not scan book for incoming taker intents LP-Maker could fill proactively. The 0x8121…295E batch (24× 4-USDC custom intents, ~$96 total) required custom audit path — correct to skip. No resting swap intents from other addresses visible in data that LP-Maker passed on.

Three hardcoded prefire timestamps cover all expiry clusters with 7-min lead — cluster #2334–#2339 renewed on schedule at 11:09Z proving the system works

Per-asset bid/ask inversion guards for all 6 instruments fire immediately on oracle cross — eliminates free-option exposure within one poll cycle

SSV guard self-corrected within one wake after oracle drop $2.44→$2.43 (w213 guard wake) — rapid self-repair demonstrated

90-min fallback ensures recovery even if prefire timestamps all miss

Zero-LLM watch loop: price read + timestamp compare only — no model call until wake fires, keeping per-poll cost near zero

No fill-detection: BTC ask consumed before w212 and caught only at the next scheduled wake — up to 15min of missing ask exposure per fill event

Prefire timestamps are hardcoded absolute Unix seconds — script must be manually rewritten each wake with new expiries; failure to update leaves a cluster witho

Add fill-detection to the watch loop: after each price check, compare current on-chain open-intent count against expected 12 — if any ask slot is empty, fire a wake immediately to repost rather than waiting up to 15min for the next prefire.

Adverse selection from Arb-Hunter-Tom eroding PnL

Arb-Hunter-Tom accounts for ~70% of LP-Maker's fills and operates off a faster CEX feed — structurally exploits LP-Maker's oracle lag. Realized PnL -$16.82 over 149 deals confirms net-negative spread capture. Vol-adj widening (ETH +47.5bps, BTC +29.5bps) is directionally correct but insufficient: ET

Increase vol-adj multiplier for crypto when oracle move per cycle exceeds 50bps; consider skewing crypto inventory weighting toward equity synthetics (sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT) where adverse selection risk is lower and Stacker-Massimo/Option-Writer provide cleaner flow.

No fill-detection wake trigger leaves ask slots empty up to 15min

BTC ask consumed before w212, SSV ask filled break-even w211 — both caught only at scheduled prefire wake, not immediately on fill. Each fill creates an uncovered slot where LP-Maker earns no spread.

In watch loop: after each price read, fetch open intent count; if count < 12, fire wake immediately. Alternatively track per-asset ask presence by checking known intent IDs against on-chain state.

Hardcoded prefire timestamps require manual update every wake

PREFIRE2/3/4 are Unix timestamp constants that become stale after each renewal posts intents with new expiries. Agent correctly rewrites script each wake, but one missed update would leave a cluster without prefire coverage.

Compute prefire timestamps dynamically from expiry fields in posted intent objects (readable from state.json) rather than hardcoding. Eliminates per-wake copy-paste risk.

Token burn 44.7% of pool in 5h unsustainable against negative PnL

$72.87/5h operational cost against -$16.82 realized PnL means token spend alone exceeds trading gains by a wide margin. 237 wakes (36-min avg gap) includes many no-ops (w208 concurrent, w211 concurrent) adding cost without benefit.

Concurrent-wake deduplication already working (w208/w211 correctly no-op). Evaluate whether equity-synthetic intents (lower adverse selection) should carry lower spreads to attract more Stacker-Massimo/Option-Writer flow and improve PnL mix while holding token budget flat.

Mimic-Ljuba

Summary: Key change since last run: w110 (06-15T11:09Z) accepted deal #192 — BTC above $64,900, expiry 2026-06-16T11:01Z, Mimic as TAKER with +27.5pp edge (fair win prob 67.5% vs cost-implied 40%); BTC was 1.56% ITM at acceptance. Wake script was rebuilt around this deal + new BinaryBet trigger + 2h fallback. The Bear-Yosher custom deals (×2) in settled_deals_detail

Accepted deal #192 at w110: TAKER on BTC above $64,900, expiring 2026-06-16T11:01Z, +27.5pp edge, 1.56% ITM at acceptance — on-mission, well-priced. Zero additional intents is correct discipline (board sub-3pp across all visible BinaryBets). Armed, 67 min to fallback (~13:11Z), coincidentally ~19 min ahead of equity open — but this coverage is fallback-timing luck, not explicit: any interim BinaryBet wake re-arms for 2h and could push past 13:30Z.

w103–w109 all hold: visible BinaryBets are #1827 (−65pp taker edge) and #1848 (+2pp, below 3pp floor) — none meet the ≥3pp threshold. Deal #192 was the one exception (+27.5pp), taken immediately at w110. The 24 flooding custom intents (0x8121…295E) are swap-type, off-mission for Mimic's BinaryBet fi

Sound and on-mission. Consistent edge-floor discipline across w103–w109; correct identification of deal #192 as the outlier (+27.5pp vs 3pp floor). No churn: holds are terse and grounded in specific pp numbers. The one accepted deal is well-reasoned.

New BinaryBet intent appears on book (isBinaryBet filter: kind=unknown, template=BinaryBet)

Deal #192 expiry window: fires 5 min before 2026-06-16T11:01Z (setTimeout scheduled only when watcher runs within 2h of expiry — correct design, not yet active)

MISSING: explicit equity-open setTimeout — if agent wakes between now and 13:09Z and re-arms, the 2h fallback shifts past 13:30Z; stock BinaryBets from Bear-Yos

Two settled custom deals, primary custom deal source; posts crypto-down BinaryBets Mimic can mirror or take

One confirmed settled custom deal (prior run); posts BinaryBets calibrated to Polymarket implied probs, prime taker targets

5 recent settled deals, taker-first on binaries — could post near-decided BinaryBets Mimic can accept, but primary role is taker not maker

Swap market maker; Mimic's mission is BinaryBets only

None. The 24 custom intents from 0x8121…295E are swap-type (confirmed: w108 logged '24 swaps off-mission'). #1827 and #1848 were correctly rejected (−65pp and +2pp taker edge). No BinaryBet ≥3pp was skipped.

Fires on new BinaryBet intents only (template filter correct for mission) — won't misfire on the 24 custom swap flood

Hardcoded deal-192 expiry timer with 5-min lead is mission-critical and well-placed (only schedules when within 2h window — avoids hanging timers)

Baseline-then-watch pattern for new intents prevents stale-intent fires on arm

2h fallback appropriate for a 24/7 crypto watcher with thin binary book

Equity-open coverage is implicit only: the 2h fallback from current arm (~13:11Z) coincidentally covers it, but any BinaryBet wake between now and 13:09Z re-arm

No expiry tracking for Bear-Yosher custom deals (the ×2 settled — if any were still live, their expiry window would be unmonitored)

Add an explicit equity-open setTimeout (fires ~13:25Z = 5 min before 13:30Z) symmetric to the deal-192 timer — one-liner `if (msUntilOpen > 0 && msUntilOpen < FALLBACK_MS) setTimeout(() => fireWake('equity open window'), msUntilOpen)` — ens

Equity-open coverage is fallback-timing luck, not explicit

The 2h fallback from w110 (~11:09Z) lands ~13:09Z, 21 min pre-open. But if any BinaryBet appears before ~13:09Z and triggers a wake, the re-arm pushes the next fallback to ~2h later, missing the equity open window entirely. Mimic's mission includes mirroring stock BinaryBets — Bear-Yosher and others

Mirror the deal-192 expiry pattern: compute msUntilEquityOpen at watcher arm time; if within FALLBACK_MS, schedule a setTimeout to fireWake('equity open — scan for new stock BinaryBets').

Wake script hardcodes deal #192 but has no fallback for future live deals

Deal #192 (BTC>$64,900, expires 2026-06-16T11:01Z) is hardcoded. When future custom deals are accepted, the wake script must be manually updated each time to track their expiry. This is a pattern risk — a missed update leaves a live deal with no settlement reminder.

Store active deal expiry times in a small JSON sidecar file (e.g., data/wake/active_deals.json); wake script reads it at arm time and schedules all timers dynamically. Agent's accept flow writes to the sidecar on each new deal.

Momentum-Nikita

crypto gap ≥2pp (BTC/ETH/SSV) | US mkt open 13:30 UTC Jun 15 | 8h fallback

Summary: Continuity confirmed: the 2 LP-Maker settled deals cited in Step-1 as 'new' are the same pre-w39 historical swaps the prior summary already flagged — no new trade has occurred across w39–w46 and no wake has fired since w46 (10:46Z, 79min ago). Fast signal remained compressed throughout (0.23pp–1.73pp vs 2pp threshold); holding is correct, not stuck. Watcher

No new trades since pre-w39; fast signal compressed to 0.51pp at w46 (2pp threshold), dual-confirm rule correctly suppressing action. The 2 LP-Maker settled deals are historical, not new. 13:30Z equity-open trigger fires first (~85min), before the 8h/405min fallback — timing is as designed. Hardcoded date '2026-06-15T13:30:00Z' will silently expire after today's open.

Fast gap compressed across all 8 recent wakes: 1.73pp (w39) → 1.40pp (w40) → 0.60pp (w41) → 0.23pp (w43) → 1.06pp (w44) → 1.51pp (w45) → 0.51pp (w46). Slow signal at 2.65pp (SSV leads) but dual-confirm requires fast ≥2pp too — a deliberate noise filter, not a bug. No single leader established.

Sound and on-mission. The dual-confirm rule (fast AND slow both ≥2pp) correctly filters compressed-field churn — the agent is solving the right problem. Eight consecutive hold wakes show consistent signal-reading logic, not re-derivation or stuck loops. $5.56 realized PnL on 9 lifetime deals and portfolio at ATH ~$104.15 at last wake confirms prior decisions were correct.

Crypto momentum gap ≥2pp between any two of BTC/ETH/SSV (dynamic per-wake baseline, never hardcoded)

US equity market open at 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z — expands universe to full 6 names (BTC/ETH/SSV/sAAPL/sNVDA/sMSFT); fires ~85min from now, before fallback

8h fallback from arm time (~18:46Z today, 405min remaining)

All historical Nikita swaps routed through LP-Maker; deep inventory, continuous market-making, hub of 11/16 recent fleet deals

1 historical Nikita deal; Vulture takes near-mispriced swaps — overlap when Nikita's momentum edge is sharp

PID death undiagnosed, gap-protect compe

Both use delivered swaps; opposite-direction trades possible on leadership rotations, but lot-size mismatch bug (sMSFT) unresolved

none — fast signal stayed below 2pp at every w39–w46 wake; no LP resting ask was takeable within Nikita's threshold conditions

Dynamic per-wake baseline — no hardcoded price literals, baseline resets correctly each arm

Monitors the decision variable directly (relative cross-asset gap) not absolute per-asset moves — a 1.5%/−0.8% pair correctly reads as 2.3pp gap

Excludes frozen stock prices from crypto momentum calc until equity open — avoids stale-price contamination

Three-tier trigger hierarchy (crypto gap → equity open → 8h fallback) matches the mission's two trading regimes

HARDCODED DATE: '2026-06-15T13:30:00Z' is stale after today's open — every subsequent wake arms a watcher whose MARKET_OPEN_MS is already in the past, so the eq

90s poll cadence is fine for fast-signal detection but undocumented as intentional — could be mistaken for a leftover default

Replace the hardcoded MARKET_OPEN_MS literal with dynamic next-weekday-open logic: compute the next future UTC 13:30 that falls Mon–Fri, so the equity-open trigger auto-advances each wake without manual date edits.

Hardcoded market-open date '2026-06-15T13:30:00Z' stales after today

After the 13:30Z trigger fires today and Nikita arms a new watcher, MARKET_OPEN_MS will be in the past — the condition `now >= MARKET_OPEN_MS` will be true from the first poll, causing an immediate spurious equity-open fire on every subsequent wake, or the agent must manually update the date each ni

Compute next market open dynamically at arm time: find the next UTC 13:30 that is (a) strictly in the future and (b) on a Mon–Fri weekday. No literal date in the script.

Option-Taker-Matheus

Summary: w38 (06-15T11:19Z) was a 6h fallback wake from w37 (03:32Z), not a fireWake — confirms zero new audited Options (hash 0xb3d66f4b…) on book from 03:32Z through 11:19Z (~7h47m dry). nextFallbackMin=315 is a fresh 6h countdown from w38, firing ~17:19Z. The 0x57F8…B0ff custom deal predates the visible wake window (w31–w38 show no corresponding take) — instrument

Option-taker-matheus is alive and correctly waiting: w38 was a 6h fallback (not a fireWake), nextFallbackMin=315 confirms a fresh 6h countdown anchored at 11:19Z. Zero audited Option intents have appeared since at least w36 (03:16Z). The 0x57F8…B0ff settled custom deal predates the w31+ window and its instrument/strike/premium cannot be determined from the data provided — on-chain lookup required if audit trail needed.

w36, w37, w38 all found zero audited Option intents (template hash 0xb3d66f4b…); option-writer-matheus (26 deals, health ok) is the only known fleet counterparty but has posted no new audited Options across an 8h+ window; 0x57F8…B0ff settled 1 deal historically but is an external address with unknow

Sound and on-mission. w31–w38 logs show quantitative edge-bar checks: premium vs notional (3–5% vs 1–2% bar), expiry hours (1.47h–2.25h vs 4h+ bar), sigma-move math (#1600 flagged as 5-sigma breakeven). No churn, no wrong-problem loops. Edge bar set in w32 is being applied consistently. The sole concern is whether the 1–2% premium / 4h+ expiry dual-gate is calibrated correctly — both criteria must

fireWake: new audited Option intent (template hash 0xb3d66f4b…) appears on book after watcher seed

MISSING: no trigger on option-writer-matheus activity — indirect proxy would reduce first-eval latency when writer posts

Primary option writer in fleet, 26 deals, health ok — only agent posting audited Options at the matching template hash, but has not posted i

External counterparty — settled 1 custom deal historically; unknown if recurring writer

none: w31 correctly rejected #1600 (40× theoretical fair value, 5-sigma breakeven); w34 rejected #1849 (5% premium + 1.47h expiry, both below dual threshold); w35 rejected #1924 (3% premium + 87min expiry, same). All rejections are disciplined per the edge bar established in w32. No intents identifiable as missed takes.

fireWake on new audited template hash — fires exactly when the agent would act, zero-LLM, no false positives from non-Option book activity (swaps, binaries filt

6h fallback is appropriate cadence for a selective, patient taker that needs periodic book health checks

Seed-on-first-post design correctly ignores stale options already on book at startup, preventing re-evaluation of previously seen/rejected intents

Restart blind spot: options on book at watcher startup are seeded silently and never evaluated — agent misses a takeable option that was already live when watch

No cross-trigger on option-writer-matheus activity — could reduce latency to first evaluation when writer just posted

Fix the restart blind spot: on first poll, if auditedOptions.length > 0, call fireWake('audited Options found on startup') instead of silently seeding — the agent evaluates and rejects via edge bar if stale, but won't miss a live takeable i

Restart blind spot: audited Options already on book at watcher startup are never evaluated

seenIntentIds is null on first poll; the seed branch sets the baseline without firing fireWake. Any audited Option live at watcher startup is invisible until a NEW option appears. If no new option arrives before expiry, the agent never evaluates an otherwise-takeable intent — the exact scenario this

In the first-poll branch: if auditedOptions.length > 0, call fireWake('audited Options found on startup') instead of returning after seeding. The agent's own edge-bar logic handles rejection if they're stale.

0x57F8…B0ff settled deal: instrument/strike/premium unrecoverable from available data

settled_deals_detail shows 'custom settled ↔ 0x57F8…B0ff' but no wake in w31–w38 records this take — the deal predates the visible window. Cannot confirm instrument, strike, or premium. Step-1 focus question cannot be fully answered from snapshot data alone.

No agent change needed — verify via on-chain deal lookup or raw wake logs for w1–w30 if audit trail is required.

Dual-gate edge bar (≤2% premium AND ≥4h expiry) may be structurally over-restrictive

w34 (#1849) and w35 (#1924) were rejected because BOTH criteria failed simultaneously. A deeply ITM, cheap-premium option with 1–2h to expiry (near-decided) is the core mission target — the 4h expiry floor may exclude the most valuable near-decided takes.

Consider OR logic for near-decided cases: pass if (premium ≤ 2% AND expiry ≥ 4h) OR (delta-equivalent ≥ 0.90 AND premium ≤ X%) — let the agent evaluate deeply ITM short-dated options separately from standard cheap-premium ones.

Option-Writer-Matheus

Supply constraint (not pricing) makes repricing futile. Disciplined hold. No churn.

sNVDA seller >0.01 units appears (or 3h 10m fallback at 14:35 UTC)

Summary: Prior: 11+ wakes of 'sNVDA supply gap + zero option demand' double-block; ETH approval (w30, tx 0x8b9e2fa) removed one ENGINE 1 blocker but ENGINE 2 remained dormant. What changed: w34 broke the pure-wait pattern — agent posted intent 2388 (12 USDC → 0.058507 sNVDA at oracle mid $205.10), first active ENGINE 1 move; w35 held it open. All 9 recently settled d

All 9 recent settled deals are labeled 'Swap settled' — ENGINE 1 (portfolio rebalance) only, ENGINE 2 has not re-ranked. The Step-1 question is answered: the LP-Maker and Stacker deals are ENGINE 1 swap rebalances, not option writes. ENGINE 2 remains counterparty-starved after 11+ wakes at 3%→1.5% premium; watcher is correctly armed for sNVDA supply events (nextFallbackMin 167) but blind to any option-demand signal.

ENGINE 1: sNVDA deficit −$9.99 vs target, intent 2388 posted at oracle mid $205.10 (12 USDC → 0.058507 sNVDA) still unfilled through w35; no sNVDA sellers on book. ENGINE 2: zero option-taker demand after 11+ wakes testing 3%→1.5% premium; Option-Taker-Matheus (5 lifetime deals) has not consumed any

Sound reasoning, correct problem framing for ENGINE 1. The wait-stance from w28–w33 was justified and the w34 move (posting intent 2388 at oracle mid, more competitive than other sNVDA buyers on book) is the right action given the deficit. However, ENGINE 2 reasoning has stalled: the agent identified 'zero buyer demand' at w32 and has not attempted a re-rank, repricing, or instrument pivot since.

New sNVDA swap intent posterGives=sNVDA, posterWants=USDC, amount >0.01

Fallback at 14:35 UTC (3h 10m, nextFallbackMin 167)

MISSING: option-taker activity — no trigger fires if Option-Taker-Matheus (or any new buyer) posts an option-buy intent; agent stays asleep through ENGINE 2 opp

Primary ENGINE 1 counterparty — 6 of 9 recent settled deals; fills swap rebalances at oracle mid

Only plausible ENGINE 2 counterparty (buys ETH/BTC options); 5 lifetime deals but has not consumed option-writer's writes this window

ok, but not engaging option-writer's cur

Settled 1 swap with option-writer this cycle; Stacker buys sNVDA/sAAPL/sMSFT — possible cross-direction swap counterparty for non-sNVDA legs

2 recent swap deals; opportunistic taker — picks off mispriced swaps; will fill if option-writer's intent pricing is attractive

Unmeasurable for ENGINE 2: watcher is blind to option-demand intents on the book. For ENGINE 1: no sNVDA sell intents appeared per watcher logic; intent 2388 remains the standing bid — no missed sNVDA fills identified from available data.

Precisely filters sNVDA seller intents (posterGives=sNVDA, posterWants=USDC, amount >0.01, kind=swap) — correct shape for the ENGINE 1 deficit

Baseline snapshot on first poll avoids false-firing on pre-existing book

3h 10m fallback is sensible cadence for a patient portfolio agent; not sub-minute churn

Zero-LLM, well-structured, no stray book-non-empty trigger

Entirely blind to ENGINE 2 demand signal: no watch for option-buy intents (e.g. kind=custom, instrument matching ETH/BTC option spec) — option-taker activity go

Only watches for sNVDA sellers; if sNVDA deficit resolves, watcher has no path to re-examine ENGINE 2 or other rebalance legs until fallback fires

Add a second match branch: fire early if a new custom intent appears from a known option-taker address (or matching option-instrument shape) — this makes ENGINE 2 reactive to actual demand rather than purely fallback-driven, and is the sing

Watcher blind to ENGINE 2 demand; 11+ wakes of ENGINE 2 zero activity

Wake script watches only for sNVDA sellers (ENGINE 1). If Option-Taker-Matheus or any new buyer posts an option-buy intent, agent sleeps through it until the 3h 10m fallback. Combined with zero ENGINE 2 re-rank attempts since at least w27, the 30% option-writing sleeve is effectively inactive.

Add newMatches branch in current.ts filtering for custom intents with option-instrument shape (ETH/BTC options, known option-taker address), triggering an early ENGINE 2 evaluation wake.

ENGINE 2 re-rank stalled — consider instrument or premium pivot

11+ wakes testing 3%→1.5% premium on ETH/BTC options with zero takers. Agent correctly identified 'zero buyer demand' at w32 but has not attempted a re-rank (different expiry, different strike, different underlying) since. Portfolio −$10.01 realized PnL; ENGINE 2 contributing 0 revenue.

At next fallback wake, force an ENGINE 2 re-rank: try a different expiry window or BTC-only write (ETH approval now unblocked); if still no takers after one more full cycle, flag ENGINE 2 as structurally unviable and document in CLAUDE.md.

Polymarket-Ljuba

Summary: W58 confirmed: accepted BTC>$64,900 binary #2364 as deal #190 ($1.85 expected profit on $2.67 stake, 69% ROC, BTC $816 above strike). The Mimic-Ljuba custom deal is an ACTIVE live position — NOT one of the 2 open intents; those are unmatched maker binaries #1827 (sMSFT<$420) and #1916 (sNVDA>$195). Deal #190 expires Jun16 10:37Z; wake script fires at 10:32Z

3 active positions: deal #190 (BTC>$64,900, $1.85 expected profit, expires Jun16 10:37Z ~22.5h) + live custom deals with Bear-Yosher and Mimic-Ljuba pending expiry + maker binaries #1827/#1916 resting on book. Wake script's deal-#190-specific timer (10:32Z Jun16) fires ~25min before the 24h fallback; coverage is correct. No action needed — correctly patient.

No new mispriced bets found w51–w57 (0 takeable each wake); maker fallback binaries #1827/#1916 resting unfilled; agent correctly shifted to deal-#190 expiry timer rather than churning. Market thin in Polymarket-mispriced opportunities — agent's fault is nil.

Sound and on-mission. W51–w58 arc is coherent: patient no-trade passes (w51–w53) → mandatory sAAPL horizon exit (w54–w56) → maker binary postings (w56–w57) → opportunistic taker on BTC binary (w58). Now correctly holding rather than re-deriving the same non-existent opportunities.

Deal #190 specific timer fires at unix 1781605980 (Jun16 10:32Z, 5min before expiry)

ownIntentResolved on #1827 or #1916 (filled or expired)

newMatches: any new binaryBet or option intent appears on book

24h fallback (~Jun16 10:53Z, after deal timer)

active custom live deal in progress — crypto-down binary overlap, natural counterparty for BTC/ETH directional bets

active custom live deal in progress — binary copy-trade overlap, confirmed settled match

settled 1 swap (sAAPL exit w56); useful for future inventory exits but not a binary taker

active taker (5 recent deals); could fill #1827/#1916 maker binaries if edge materializes

None identifiable. newMatches hook fires on any new binaryBet/option intent — book coverage is active. The 0x8121…295E batch (24 × 4-USDC custom intents) is outside Polymarket-Ljuba's template scope (not binaryBet/option kind) so correctly ignored. No Polymarket-mispriced opportunities flagged in wakes w51–w57 = market-thin, not agent-blind.

Specific unix timestamp timer for deal #190 (fires 5min early at 10:32Z Jun16) — precise, avoids missing settlement window

ownIntentResolved polling on both maker binaries #1827/#1916 — exact trigger for recap/repost decision

newMatches filter scoped to binaryBet|option kinds only — zero noise, only actionable templates fire it

60s poll cadence — tight enough to catch fresh intents without meaningful token burn

24h fallback is wider than deal-#190 timer (fires ~25min later), so specific timer always wins

No periodic Polymarket probability re-poll: if Polymarket odds shift materially overnight, maker binaries #1827/#1916 can go stale without the agent knowing unt

Add a Polymarket probability check every ~4h in the watch loop; if implied probability delta vs posted price exceeds 5pp on #1827 or #1916, fireWake('Polymarket drift — reprice maker binary') to trigger a cancel-and-repost. Currently those

Maker binaries #1827/#1916 can stale overnight without Polymarket re-poll

Wake script has no periodic Polymarket probability refresh. If sNVDA or sMSFT Polymarket implied odds shift >5pp overnight, the agent's posted maker binaries are mispriced but won't be updated until an intent resolves or the 24h fallback fires — up to ~22h of stale pricing.

Add a 4h periodic Polymarket poll trigger inside runWatchLoop; on >5pp drift vs posted implied probability, call fireWake('Polymarket drift on #1827 or #1916 — reprice') to cancel and repost at current odds.

Rebalancer-Lior

Summary: Continuing from last run: lot-size mismatch (LP sMSFT min 0.030888 > balance 0.03, flagged at w50 11:04Z) is UNRESOLVED — no swap has executed since w50, balance unchanged. Watcher correctly armed for 13:30Z market open (nextFallbackMin 145 ≈ fallback at 14:30Z). The trim-then-buy chain will hit the same wall at open: agent's entire sMSFT balance (0.03) is s

The sMSFT trim will fail at 13:30Z: agent holds 0.03 sMSFT, LP-Maker minimum lot is 0.030888, and planned give is only ~0.004 — sub-lot by 8×. No fill → no USDC → BTC DCA also blocked. Zero balance change since w50; 15 lifetime deals, 0 open intents, watcher healthy but walking into a predictable wall.

w50 (11:04Z): 'LP sMSFT lot (0.030888) exceeds balance (0.03)'; wake script plans give ~0.004 sMSFT; no settled_deals_detail since w50; balance has not changed; even giving the entire 0.03 balance remains below LP minimum

Sound reasoning, right problem identified. Agent correctly flagged the mismatch at w50, approved sMSFT at w46, and is pre-positioned for 13:30Z. However it has not resolved the mismatch — it will fire at open, attempt the sub-lot trim, and receive the same LP rejection, burning ~$0.65 (last_wake_usd) on a predictably blocked action.

Date.now() >= 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z fires fireWake() — correct trigger for stock-market-gated mission

Fallback at 2026-06-15T14:30:00Z (nextFallbackMin 145 from ~12:05Z now)

MISSING: no pre-check encoding the lot-size constraint — agent will fire, attempt the trim, fail, and log the same error a third time

LP minimum lot 0.030888 > agent's full sMSFT balance 0.03 — the blocker IS this counterparty's own floor

Also accumulates sMSFT; could theoretically take a small sMSFT offer if it needed to rebalance, but its mission is to accumulate not sell

Fades dislocations; could take sMSFT if it's stretched above trailing avg, but no evidence sMSFT is currently a sell candidate for swing

None measurable — the lot-size mismatch is the binding constraint on the only planned action. Crypto DCA also blocked (no USDC reserve; ETH/SSV gaps under 1pp per w49). No intents posted to miss.

Time-based trigger on 13:30Z market open — exactly right for a stock-oracle-gated DCA agent

60s poll cadence is appropriate — not sub-minute spam, fires precisely on the gate

Fallback at 14:30Z provides a hard catch; zero-LLM; cannot fire on 'book non-empty'

No pre-check for the known lot-size constraint — script will fire the full wake cycle only to discover (again) that LP min 0.030888 > balance 0.03

No alternate path encoded: if trim is sub-lot, should the agent skip sMSFT and attempt crypto DCA from any available USDC, or defer entirely?

Add a balance pre-check before fireWake(): if sMSFT balance < LP_MIN_LOT (0.030888), fire a degraded wake with flag `trimBlocked=true` so the LLM can decide to skip trim and attempt BTC DCA from any available USDC rather than spending $0.65

sMSFT balance (0.03) sub-lot — trim will fail at 13:30Z

LP-Maker minimum lot is 0.030888 sMSFT; agent balance is 0.03 (short by 0.000888); even a full-balance offer is rejected. The planned give of ~0.004 is sub-lot by 8×. Unresolved since w50 (11:04Z, 61min ago). No accumulation path visible while stocks are closed and USDC is zero.

CLAUDE.md should encode: if sMSFT_balance < LP_min_lot at open, skip the trim leg and either (a) attempt BTC DCA from any available USDC, or (b) hold and flag for manual top-up. Also consider whether another counterparty (Swing-Nikita, Stacker-Massimo) might take a sub-lot sMSFT offer without LP's f

Wake script fires blind into a known constraint

The lot-size mismatch is a deterministic, checkable condition (balance vs. LP floor), yet the watcher fires the full $0.65 wake with no pre-screen. This will happen every open cycle until balance crosses the floor.

Add balance pre-check in wake_script/current.ts: read sMSFT balance and LP min lot before fireWake(); pass `trimBlocked` flag so the LLM wake branches correctly rather than rediscovering the constraint.

Stacker-Massimo

Bid 2351 on-price at oracle+0.5%, no refresh needed. No LP-sized sNVDA/sAAPL sells within 1% ceiling. sMSFT sell present

w73 log: 'sMSFT 2337 within ceiling but not yet at ro[tation threshold]' — agent skipped a takeable ask. LP sAAPL 2333 confirmed +80bps above ceiling at w69; no repricing through w73. Vulture +181bps above ceiling (w69). 10 settled deals, all buys from LP (6) or Option-Writer (1), confirming no sell

bid 2351 fill or expiry (ownIntentResolved)

new LP-sized sNVDA or sAAPL sell ≥3 USDC (newMatches filter)

sAAPL oracle drift >0.5% from base $291.15

MISSING: sMSFT sell-side trigger — isSellOpportunity only checks sAAPL/sNVDA; sMSFT asks only caught by fallback (up to 45-min latency)

Primary counterparty (6/10 deals); currently pricing sAAPL/sNVDA ~80bps above ceiling — not crossable today

Mission: trim sMSFT → buy BTC at ~13:30Z market open; will post sMSFT sell — highest-probability near-term fill window for stacker

Holds sNVDA (70/30 portfolio); 1 past deal settled; may post opportunistic sells but unpredictable cadence

Confirmed sAAPL ask +181bps above ceiling at w69; not crossable now, but re-prices opportunistically

Mission includes selling tech equities; could post sMSFT/sAAPL sells but no confirmed deal history with stacker

ownIntentResolved fires on bid fill or expiry — correct trigger for the bid-management loop

Oracle drift check on sAAPL ($1.46 threshold) triggers bid repricing — well-reasoned

newMatches with LP-sized filter (3–12 USDC) correctly screens dust lots

45-min fallback ensures no indefinite sleep

isSellOpportunity excludes sMSFT — confirmed gap: sMSFT 2337 was crossable at w73 but only catchable by 45-min fallback

w70–w73 logs show '[object Object]' as reason field — object passed to log formatter instead of stringified; reduces observability

ORACLE_BASE_SAAPL hardcoded to $291.15 — becomes stale between wakes; drift check relative to a frozen base can miss repricing if base itself needs updating

Rotation logic gating taker decisions

consecutive_misses threshold (2) is being applied to TAKE decisions, not just bid-rotation decisions. At w73, sMSFT 2337 was within the ~1% ceiling and should have been taken immediately per mission ('take resting asks within ~1% of oracle, 24/7'). Agent held because rotation counter hadn't flipped.

In CLAUDE.md / agent reasoning: taker decisions are unconditional — if ask ≤ oracle×1.01 and USDC available, take it regardless of consecutive_misses. Rotation counter governs only which asset to post a bid for.

watcher blind to sMSFT sells

isSellOpportunity filter in current.ts only watches sNVDA and sAAPL. sMSFT asks (e.g., 2337 at w73) only caught by 45-min fallback, creating up to 45-min latency on the most likely near-term counterparty (Rebalancer-Lior sMSFT trim at ~13:30Z).

Add 'sMSFT' to the ["sAAPL", "sNVDA"] array in isSellOpportunity. No other change needed.

Self-cancel bug at w70 (intent misidentification)

At w70, agent canceled bid 2320 after misidentifying intent 2335 as its own active lot. Re-posted identical bid 2351. Wasted a cancel+post cycle; if this recurs during a thin fill window it could miss a counterparty.

Audit intent-ownership check logic: verify agent uses its own wallet address or a reliable intent-ID prefix to disambiguate own vs. others' intents before canceling.

[object Object] in wake logs (w70–w73)

Four consecutive wakes log '[object Object]' as the reason field, indicating an object is being passed to the log formatter un-stringified. Doesn't affect trading but reduces observability for debugging.

Stringify the reason argument before logging: JSON.stringify(reason) or reason?.toString().

Swing-Nikita

crypto buy-dip ≥1.5% OR US market open 2026-06-15T13:30 UTC

All three crypto assets above their compile-time trailing averages (BTC +2.43%, ETH +3.74%, SSV +3.07% per w42 comment) — no buy-dip signals. Zero crypto inventory prevents any sell-strength trade. US stocks closed until 13:30Z. No counterparty or infra failure.

crypto spot ≥1.5% below CRYPTO_AVGS compile-time constants (60s poll)

MARKET_OPEN_MS = 2026-06-15T13:30:00Z time trigger

MISSING: runtime rolling-average update — CRYPTO_AVGS are still embedded constants; if watcher runs past 13:30Z without re-scripting, next cycle starts stale ag

Primary swap counterparty (147/192 fleet deals, 76%); accepts delivered swaps near oracle mid — exact instrument swing-nikita uses

Also trades delivered swaps and rotates into strongest movers; swing-nikita sells strength / buys weakness — directionally opposed, natural

DCA via delivered swaps; sMSFT trim at open could cross swing's stock buys if sMSFT is stretched below baseline

CRYPTO_AVGS refreshed at w42 (10:57Z Jun 15) — BTC 64332.29/ETH 1678.77/SSV 2.32 — reducing open-time staleness from feared 15.3h to ~2.5h

MARKET_OPEN_MS hardcoded to today's date (2026-06-15T13:30:00Z) with fallback 4h — primary trigger fires exactly at stock oracle live time

60s poll cadence is appropriate for a dislocation scanner that needs sub-minute latency to catch a move

BUY-DIP-only guard comment correctly reflects zero-inventory sell block; won't fire on a signal the LLM can't act on

CRYPTO_AVGS are still compile-time constants embedded per wake-script rewrite — if no wake fires between 13:30Z and the next natural fallback, the next script g

No stock baselines in watcher — by design (stocks not live until open) but means any stock dislocation can only be detected AFTER the MARKET_OPEN_MS trigger fir

CRYPTO_AVGS are compile-time constants — staleness accrues between script rewrites

Baselines were refreshed at w42 (10:57Z), cutting open-time staleness from ~15.3h to ~2.5h for this cycle. But the structural problem remains: if the watcher runs for hours without a rewrite (next fallback 235min out), the averages cannot self-update. On a volatile night the dislocation threshold co

Fetch a live rolling average (e.g., read last 12h OHLCV via belt.tools.readPrice or a candles endpoint) at the top of each runWatchLoop tick and diff against that instead of the embedded constant. Adds one async call per 60s tick but makes the signal always accurate.

tokens_5h_usd=0 inconsistent with last_wake_usd=0.42 at 7 min ago

Minor metrics lag — w42 (10:58Z, 7 min ago) cost $0.42 per last_wake_usd but tokens_5h_usd reports 0. Likely a pipeline flush delay, not a real issue, but worth confirming the 5h window closes correctly post-wake.

Verify metrics aggregation pipeline picks up the most recent wake within the 5h window; may be an off-by-one on flush timing.

Vulture-Andrew

Gap-protect: 2.5 min between watcher fallback and soonest bait expiry. CMQ cancels rejected (false positives from sub-fl

17 intents, none takeable; soonestExpiry=1781526721; next poll 71s

Summary: PID death structural pattern persists and is STILL UNDIAGNOSED but gap-protect is compensating cleanly. w205 (10:07) is the most recent death (PID 198107 gone); it triggered correctly: ETH bait drifted to 2.19% (above 2.05% ceiling, caused by $6.69 ETH drop), gap-protect cancelled short-TTL intents, 6 fresh baits posted with 1h TTL (~10:55-11:02 UTC expiry).

Re-armed and repriced cleanly after w205 death: ETH drift to 2.19% caught, 6 fresh baits live within tolerance, nextFallbackMin=40. PID crash cadence (~15-20 min) is structural and undiagnosed — gap-protect is the real safety net, not the watcher process itself. The $136.54 lifetime burn vs $2.09 realized PnL warrants scrutiny on bait fill rate.

PID deaths at w201/w202/w203/w204/w205 (~15-20 min intervals); watcher process crashes between 30s polls rather than timing out. armed=true + nextFallbackMin=40 means fallback is absorbing each death. 6 open baits on book; 0 edges found at w205; no counterparty flow to take.

Sound and solving the right problem. Each wake correctly distinguishes requote-needed vs hold: w203 confirmed baits within [1.55%, 2.05%] tolerance and held; w203-fallback detected SSV at 2.67% (above ceiling) and corrected; w205 detected ETH drift to 2.19% and corrected. CMQ false-positive logic (sub-floor rivals excluded from cancel signals) is working. The agent is not re-deriving — it's increm

New takeable edge ≥1% (scan-edges.ts, 30s poll)

~5 min before soonest intent expiry (soonestExpirySec from scan)

Quote erosion/undercut (check-my-quotes.ts cancelCmds > 0)

MISSING: PID crash detection / auto-restart within the watcher process itself — the process dies silently and gap-protect on next wake is the only corrective pa

3 of last 8 settled deals; dominant hub with 12 open intents and deep inventory

2 of last 8 settled deals; fast-moving, likely to post mispriced intents vulture can take

2 of last 8 settled deals; posts options vulture can take near-decided

1 of last 8 settled deals; delivers swaps, occasional overlap

0 edges reported at w203 and w205 — nothing takeable above 1% floor on book at those scans. CMQ flagged sub-floor rivals but correctly excluded as false positives. No verifiable missed opportunities this window; the book was thin.

Four-trigger design (edge, pre-expiry, quote erosion, fallback) maps directly to vulture's active-quoting + opportunistic-taking mission

Pre-seeded honeypot IDs (779/836/869) prevent watcher from re-firing on known traps

30s poll cadence is appropriate — tight enough to catch price drift, not sub-minute spam

2h hard fallback is a correct safety net for a patient agent

No crash-resilience within the script itself: when execSync(scan-edges) or JSON.parse throws outside the try blocks (e.g. scan.takeable on a malformed response)

soonestExpirySec arithmetic: if scan.soonestExpirySec is undefined (malformed scan output), the pre-expiry condition evaluates undefined math silently — NaN >=

2h fallback is correct for a patient agent, but with PID dying every ~15-20 min the effective fallback is 'next gap-protect wake' not '2h' — the fallback is not

Wrap the entire runWatch body in a top-level try/catch that logs and re-arms on unhandled error, so a malformed scan response or uncaught exception doesn't silently kill the PID — instead it logs the crash reason and the fallback fires with

Watcher PID crash cadence undiagnosed (~15-20 min, 5+ deaths in 1h)

Deaths at w201/w202/w203/w204/w205 — far more frequent than the 2h fallback interval. The cause is unknown but likely: (a) unhandled exception from malformed scan-edges JSON crashing runWatch outside the inner try block, or (b) memory pressure from the execSync tight loop. gap-protect is compensatin

Add a top-level try/catch in runWatch; log the crash message before re-throwing. Then check watcher logs for the actual error — the gap-protect wakes will contain it in their output once it's surfaced.

Net PnL vs token burn: $2.09 realized on $136.54 lifetime burn

46 deals with only $2.09 realized PnL while burning $136.54 in tokens lifetime (current rate $8.19/5h = ~$39/day). The bait-posting loop is expensive. If fill rate doesn't improve, the strategy is token-negative net.

Audit fill rate on the 6-bait book: how many baits are being taken vs expiring? If >80% expire unfilled, reduce bait count or widen the cadence to cut token burn.

wallet-address frequency (12/14 agents addressed)

LP HUB BLEEDING, TAKERS ACTIVE

Most active pair — 5 deals this cycle, ~28/40 visible LP fills adversarial; LP i

Active — bait sweeps firing; 2 recent deals; 6 baits on book (10–11m TTL)

Sporadic — 2 recent deals; currently held (fast gap 0.51pp at w46 vs 2pp thresho

Reduced — 1 deal this cycle; rotation-logic bug blocked valid sMSFT take at w73

Active — intent 2388 (12 USDC → 0.058507 sNVDA at $205.10) posted w34, unfilled

Blocked — Lior's 0.03 sMSFT balance below LP minimum lot (0.030888) since w50 (1

Arb-Hunter-Tom latency-arbs LP-Maker's slow oracle refresh

LP-Maker realized PnL −$16.8+ and climbing; adversarial fills are ~70% of its volume (28/40 visible deals)

arb-hunter-tom: '23/25 deals via LP-Maker'; lp-maker-matheus: 'ETH ask inverted −54bps (w212 cancel), SSV ask break-even $2.42 (w211), BTC consumed pre-wake'; negative PnL −$16.8 cited in summary

LP-Maker-Matheus is sole liquid swap counterparty for 5 agents

A single LP outage or capital depletion simultaneously stalls arb-hunter-tom, momentum-nikita, stacker-massimo, vulture-

11/16 recent deals involve LP-Maker; arb-hunter-tom reliableCounterparties=1, momentum-nikita=1, stacker-massimo=1, rebalancer-lior=0 (blocked); $72.42/5h burn rate on LP wallet

Option-Writer-Matheus ENGINE 2 dormant (zero option-taker demand after 11+ wakes at 3%→1.5% premium)

Option-Taker-Matheus starved — zero audited options on book across ~8h window (w36–w38); options market completely froze

option-taker-matheus: 'w36, w37, w38 all found zero audited Option intents'; option-writer-matheus: 'ENGINE 2 dormant; zero takers consumed any post'; option-taker reliableCounterparties=1 (sole sourc

Rebalancer-Lior sMSFT balance (0.03) is below LP minimum lot (0.030888) by 0.000888 sMSFT

Entire trim-then-buy chain blocked since w50 (11:04Z, ~2h); agent will miss 13:30Z equity open unless wallet topped up (

rebalancer-lior rootCause.evidence: 'LP sMSFT lot (0.030888) exceeds balance (0.03)'; no settled deal since w50; nextFallbackMin=129 (~14:30Z, after open)

Stacker-Massimo rotation threshold incorrectly applied to taker (not just maker) decisions

Valid sMSFT ask 2337 skipped at w73 despite being within ~1% ceiling; accumulation stalled even when price is in range

stacker-massimo w73 log: 'sMSFT 2337 within ceiling but not yet at ro[tation threshold]'; 10 settled deals all from LP/Option-Writer, none via direct taker opportunism

Bear-Yosher current.ts missing ETH_BASELINE and ETH_DEVIATION_PCT

Only BTC HALT signal wired; ETH-driven halt events cannot fire despite mission specifying dual BTC/ETH HALT logic

bear-yosher rootCause.evidence: 'no ETH_BASELINE or ETH_DEVIATION_PCT anywhere in current.ts'; agent otherwise executing cleanly (3 live deals, anchor 2387 resting)

LP-Maker hub concentration — 70%+ of fleet liquidity in one agent

11/16 recent deals involve LP-Maker-Matheus. Five agents report reliableCounterparties ≤1, all pointing to LP-Maker. No second swap-maker exists. A single outage or capital floor hit stalls the majority of the fleet simultaneously. This is fleet structural risk, not any one agent's fault.

11/16 recent settled deals include LP-Maker; arb-hunter-tom: 23/25 lifetime deals via LP-Maker; momentum-nikita, stacker-massimo, vulture-andrew each reliableCounterparties=1; rebalancer-lior reliableCounterparties=0

Add a second swap-maker or configure LP-Maker with a capital floor circuit-breaker so ≥2 reliable swap liquidity sources exist fleet-wide

LP-Maker bleeding PnL to arb at −$16.8+ realized

Arb-Hunter-Tom is taking ~70% of LP-Maker's fills adversarially (28/40 visible deals). LP is the structural slow leg: ETH ask inverted −54bps at w212, SSV ask filled at break-even $2.42 (w211), BTC consumed before scheduled wake. $72.42/5h burn rate with no apparent PnL offset.

lp-maker-matheus summary: 'Negative realized PnL −$16.8'; arb-hunter-tom rootCause: 'latency arb on fast CEX feed vs slow on-chain oracle'; deal 193 (+25bps SSV), deal 194 ($0.024/$9.255 notional)

Investigate LP oracle refresh cadence; tightening price update latency or adding a short-lived post-fill lockout shrinks adversarial fill window

Rebalancer-Lior lot-size blocked — will miss 13:30Z equity open

sMSFT balance 0.03 is below LP minimum lot 0.030888 by 0.000888 sMSFT (~$0.35). No swap has executed since w50 (11:04Z, ~2h ago). Market opens in ~75min; watcher fallback fires at ~14:30Z — after open. Without a manual top-up the entire trim-then-buy chain stalls again at open.

rebalancer-lior: 'LP sMSFT lot (0.030888) exceeds balance (0.03)' flagged at w50; no settled deal since w50; nextFallbackMin=129

Top up Rebalancer-Lior sMSFT wallet by ≥0.001 sMSFT (~$0.40) before 13:30Z, OR lower LP-Maker sMSFT minimum lot below 0.03

Stacker-Massimo rotation bug skipping valid taker fills

Rotation threshold logic is gating a pure taker decision it should not gate. sMSFT ask 2337 was within the ~1% price ceiling at w73 — a straightforward buy — yet the agent skipped it citing rotation threshold. That gate belongs only on maker-side rebalance posts. Each skipped ask delays accumulation.

stacker-massimo w73 log: 'sMSFT 2337 within ceiling but not yet at ro[tation threshold]'; rootCause.class=toolchain-blocked; 10 settled deals all buys from LP or Option-Writer

Fix stacker-massimo CLAUDE.md: accepting an ask within the price ceiling bypasses rotation threshold; that gate applies to maker-side rebalance posts only

Vulture-Andrew PID death undiagnosed — 5+ cycles, ~15-20min cadence

PID deaths at w201–w205 at regular ~15-20min intervals. Gap-protect is absorbing each death correctly (cancels stale baits, reposts 6 fresh with 1h TTL), but the root crash cause remains unknown after multiple board cycles. Regular cadence suggests memory leak, resource ceiling, or scheduled kill rather than a true crash.

vulture-andrew: 'PID 198107 gone at w205 (10:07Z)'; deaths at w201–w205 at ~15-20min intervals; armed=true, nextFallbackMin=26; gap-protect compensating each time

Capture Vulture-Andrew watcher stderr and exit code on next death (expected in ~26min) — the regularity pattern will distinguish OOM/timeout/SIGKILL

Bear-Yosher running on half its HALT logic — ETH band absent from wake script

Bear-Yosher's mission specifies dual BTC/ETH HALT signals, but current.ts contains no ETH_BASELINE or ETH_DEVIATION_PCT anywhere. An ETH-driven halt event cannot fire. The agent is otherwise executing cleanly (3 live deals, anchor 2387 resting, BTC band wired correctly).

bear-yosher rootCause.evidence: 'no ETH_BASELINE or ETH_DEVIATION_PCT anywhere in current.ts despite mission's dual BTC/ETH HALT logic'

Add ETH_BASELINE + ETH_DEVIATION_PCT to bear-yosher current.ts mirroring the BTC pattern; HALT should trigger on ETH deviation with the same threshold logic

Top up Rebalancer-Lior sMSFT balance by ≥0.001 sMSFT (~$0.40) before 13:30Z — blocked for 2h+ and watcher fallback fires at 14:30Z, after equity open

Fix Stacker-Massimo rotation-logic: taker accepts within price ceiling must bypass rotation threshold gate; next valid sMSFT ask will be skipped again otherwise

Capture Vulture-Andrew watcher exit code + stderr on next PID death (~26min, regular ~15-20min cadence) to diagnose OOM/timeout/SIGKILL root cause

Add ETH_BASELINE + ETH_DEVIATION_PCT to Bear-Yosher current.ts — ETH HALT band is entirely absent despite being half the mission's dual-signal design

Decide index-maker/index-taker fate after 53 null cycles and $0 lifetime activity: activate with wallet + wake-script, or decommission and remove from board

Better vs last run: Momentum-Nikita broke its 'no on-chain action' streak (2 new LP deals settled), Stacker-Massimo also settled an LP swap despite rotation-logic bug, and Arb-Hunter-Tom is the most active taker with 5 recent deals; new anomaly is 0x8121…295E flooding 24 near-identical 4-USDC custom

0x8121…295E batch anomaly: 24 custom intents (8× BTC, 8× ETH, 8× SSV, all 4 USDC each ≈$96 total) expiring in 5–11 min — flood pattern, no fleet agent matches this address

LP-Maker-Matheus appears in 11 of 16 recent deals (hub concentration risk); 13 open intents, $72.42/5h burn — cluster #2334–#2339 expired ~11:07–11:08Z, book continuity unconfirmed

Arb-Hunter-Tom: 5 recent settled deals (4× LP-Maker, 1× Vulture-Andrew), HWM was 2374 — active edge period, check if HWM advanced

Equity pre-open window (~2h to 13:30Z): Momentum-Nikita (407min fallback), Swing-Nikita (177min), Rebalancer-Lior (sMSFT lot-size mismatch unresolved), Stacker-Massimo (rotation bug) all fire at/near

Mimic-Ljuba has 2 simultaneous live custom deals (Bear-Yosher + Polymarket-Ljuba) with 0 open intents — settlement pending

Vulture-Andrew PID death still undiagnosed after multiple cycles; gap-protect compensating but root cause unknown

5 recent deals settled (4× LP-Maker, 1× Vulture-Andrew) since HWM=2374 — did the HWM advance beyond 2374, which specific edges (ETH/BTC/SSV) fired, and is the watcher still correctly armed for the next edge window (nextFallback=26min)?

Bear-Yosher ↔ Mimic-Ljuba [custom] is live (1 open intent) — is this the BTC anchor #2375 posted at w61, has ETH band been added to the watcher since the last summary flagged it missing, and does nextFallback=200min land before the BTC band

53rd consecutive null cycle — is there any signal (wallet, env, commit) that distinguishes 'deploying soon' from 'permanently decommissioned', and should this be escalated to a fleet-level decision?

53rd consecutive null cycle with index-maker also dead — same decommission-vs-waiting question; confirm that no IndexBasket intents exist on the open book that would give it something to act on even if deployed today

Cluster #2334–#2339 expired ~11:07–11:08Z per prior summary prefire — did the watcher successfully renew those intents, are all 13 book slots still filled, and do the Vulture-Andrew asks on book (6 intents: BTC, sAAPL, sMSFT, ETH, SSV) repr

Two simultaneous live custom deals (Bear-Yosher + Polymarket-Ljuba) with 0 open intents — are both deals in-the-money for Mimic (i.e., Mimic as which party, at what implied p?), and is the equity-open watcher still on track to fire at/befor

LP-Maker ↔ Momentum-Nikita settled twice (new since prior 'no on-chain action') — did the fast signal cross threshold or did Nikita take LP resting asks directly, and does nextFallbackMin=407min land after the 13:30Z equity open as intended

0x57F8…B0ff ↔ Option-Taker-Matheus [custom] settled (new external counterparty) — what instrument/strike/premium was this option, did the fallback fire or a fireWake trigger, and does the nextFallbackMin=317min countdown now reflect a fresh

LP-Maker ↔ Option-Writer AND Stacker ↔ Option-Writer both settled (new) — were these ENGINE 1 (portfolio swap rebalances) or ENGINE 2 (option writes), and did ENGINE 2 finally re-rank after 11+ wakes of sNVDA supply gap?

Polymarket-Ljuba ↔ Mimic-Ljuba [custom] live with 2 open intents — is the Mimic deal one of the 2 open intents or already matched, what's the deal-#190 Jun16 10:32Z expiry countdown, and does nextFallbackMin=1374min (≈23h) correctly cover t

sMSFT lot-size mismatch flagged at w50 (LP min 0.030888 > balance 0.03) remains unresolved with market open ~2h away — will this block the trim-then-buy chain at 13:30Z, and has any new swap executed since w50 that changed the balance?

LP-Maker ↔ Stacker-Massimo [Swap] settled (new deal!) — did the rotation logic gate or allow this take, and is the rotation-threshold bug (prior: 'gating a taker decision it should not gate') now producing false negatives on sAAPL/sNVDA ask

Baselines refreshed at w42 (BTC 64332.29 / ETH 1678.77 / SSV 2.32) and nextFallbackMin=177min targets ~13:30Z open — are current book prices (BTC ~$65,716 per Bear watcher, ETH ~$1,739 per Arb edge) stretched enough vs those baselines to tr

6 fresh baits posted post-w205 PID death with ~1h TTL expiring ~10:55–11:02Z — have those baits been taken, expired, or renewed, and has the PID death root cause been diagnosed (or is gap-protect still the only mitigation after multiple cyc

Identify 0x8121…295E: 24 near-identical custom intents (4 USDC → BTC/ETH/SSV, 8 each) all expiring in <11min — determine if this is a test wallet, a buggy agent, or external spam, and add address to f

vulture-andrew: PID death (e.g., w205 PID 198107) is still undiagnosed after multiple cycles — capture the actual death signal (OOM, signal, exit code) before gap-protect masking makes root-cause unre

stacker-massimo: Rotation-threshold logic is gating taker decisions on in-ceiling asks — remove rotation check from the take path; rotation should only gate what to buy next, not whether to buy at all

rebalancer-lior: sMSFT lot-size mismatch (LP min 0.030888 > balance 0.03) will block the trim-then-buy chain at 13:30Z open — either acquire more sMSFT before open or adjust the trim target to a LP-fi

bear-yosher: Add ETH band watch to the watcher alongside BTC — dual-signal mission is half-blind with only BTC tracked

index-maker + index-taker at 53rd consecutive null cycle — escalate to a deployment decision: set a deployment date or mark as decommissioned to stop polluting the fleet health panel